Casting our vote is the ultimate way we go high when they go low
October 28, 2016 1:00 PM Subscribe

Eleven days to go. Since last time, Donald announced his first 100 days of actions, but still dislikes Jeb and John, while Hillary considers Texas and (post-birthday) speaks with Michelle (post title from speech) in North Carolina, early voting is happening, and Barack has nice approval ratings (though not everywhere). In the polls, 538 reckons Donald needs a sweep of swing states, GOP "insiders" think there are secret Trump voters, another release shows ties in Georgia and Iowa, and in perhaps less reliable data, Donald has a huge lead. While social media rages and schools have concerns about being polling stations, Wikileaks continues to drip-feed mundane emails, the FBI writes a vague letter about other emails (rebuttal), Colin Powell declares for Hillary, a 'Victory Bus' tours (gallery), Evan and Mindy continue to draw support across Utah, and therapists and patients describe election stress.

Resources
* Ballotpedia has a mass of election resources.
* Plan your election day; again from Ballotpedia, state-by-state poll opening and closing times.
* Voter information by lampshade.
* The MeFites United team.
* How to vote in every state by NoxAeternum.

Voter suppression, access (links by Lexica on disability access), and possible intimidation continues to affect the election in a myriad of ways. In already contested North Carolina, greatly reducing the number of early voting locations has, not surprisingly, greatly reduced early voting. In Wisconsin, a request to open an early voting location in a student demographic area was turned down for questionable reasons. Elsewhere, the Los Angeles Times have tried to collate voter fraud allegations, and the Democratic party take the Republican party to court (also, Rachel Maddow).

Meanwhile, on MetaTalk and AskMeFi
- Get Yer Voting Stories Here!
- Mefite Election Volunteering
- Best post-debate Nasty Woman T shirt?
- How should I follow the 2016 US election result from the UK?
- What else could one know about their neighbors' voting habits?

A few Flickr pictures of early voting in Texas from Denton, El Paso, Harris County, Helotes, Longview and Plano. Elsewhere, a line in Washington D.C. and again, Las Vegas, and Tennessee, plus photos from Massachusetts (and another), North Carolina and what appears to be an arcade.

MetaFilter nostalgia: I coulda' been a contender (2016 Republican edition)
- Let the games begin! Er, continue! 17 GOP candidates enter ...
- President Scott Walker will not be a thing
- Election 2016: Rubio and Kasich's last stand: Rubio quits at this point.
- Crossing the Delaware: five primaries in the US election : Cruz quits at this point.
- Trump will be the Republican standard-bearer: Kasich quits at this point.
- Nevada and South Carolina: Jeb quits at this point.

From Twitter, a few election signs. Josh wants your vote, there is cynicism in Ohio, some alarm elsewhere, the dream team want your vote, or you can vote math.

posted by Wordshore (3540 comments total) 139 users marked this as a favorite

Thanks for all your effort and hard work that went into this post, Wordshore.
posted by INFJ at 1:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [74 favorites]

Is this the new thread? We left sanity in the old one.
posted by guiseroom at 1:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

The MetaFilter annotated coffee table book edition of this election is gonna be YUUUGE.
posted by wabbittwax at 1:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [56 favorites]

We left sanity in the old one.

nonono I'm here
posted by Namlit at 1:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Eleven days. Eleven days. Eleven days.

We can do this. Maybe we'll need alcohol and/or sleeping pills (NOT AT THE SAME TIME) but we can do this.
posted by cooker girl at 1:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [16 favorites]

Don't tell me about cynicism in Ohio. I went and voted early this morning in Cuyahoga County (aka You're Welcome, We Actually Enjoy Canceling Out The Votes Of The Orange Boehners To The Southwest), and it was PACKED SOLID with people voting. Now we just have to hope Anthony Weiner's penis doesn't RUIN EVERYTHING.
posted by bitter-girl.com at 1:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [53 favorites]

Let's just get this out of the way:

GOD DAMMIT, ANTHONY WEINER
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [155 favorites]

The MetaFilter annotated coffee table book edition of this election is gonna be YUUUGE.

No. It's just going to be a GIF of Neo dodging bullets on repeat.
posted by Talez at 1:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

Thanks to Election 2016, I now know more about at least three penises than I ever cared to.
posted by theraflu at 1:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [35 favorites]

I just have to keep reminding myself that all the other stresses in my life do not magically go away on November 9th.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 1:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Yeah the stories I'm hearing (and experiencing) here in Ohio point to long, long lines for early voting. I've said it before, but historically speaking, when there are lots of people voting it generally means the usually apathetic Dems are getting out and when the Dems show up and vote, it all goes blue.

Please god let it be true this time.
posted by cooker girl at 1:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [59 favorites]

I'm too exhausted by this whole thing to be rational. The letter from FBI director Comey today, being spun as re-opening the investigation into the Clinton emails, is frustrating. I got off Facebook in early July, do I now have to spend 11 days disconnected from the internet completely?
posted by pwinn at 1:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

For stress relief from helpless laughter, I can highly recommend the Vine RIP comments.
posted by Celsius1414 at 1:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

The MetaFilter annotated coffee table book edition of this election is gonna be YUUUGE.

Isn't it sort of its own annotations?

Anyway, my husband is texting me asking what on earth Comey's agenda is here and I'm at a loss. And getting absolutely no work done. After Nov. 9 I think I am going to take a long, long news holiday. No more current events until 2017.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Voted for Hillary today, wished it could've been Bernie, saw email scandal, mentally checked out, hooray for new thread
posted by R.F.Simpson at 1:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

Which song is that, Wordshore?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm going on a last minute work trip to Seattle, so I went ahead and casted my vote—via absentee ballot—for Clinton/Kaine today (and other Dems down the line). I live in an area that will go blue regardless, but it felt great.
posted by defenestration at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Our Robot Masters have spoken.
"Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds"
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

The MetaFilter annotated coffee table book edition of this election is gonna be YUUUGE.

Isn't it sort of its own annotations?

I'm okay with someone adding [WRONG] to all of the "Trump won't last" comments (including mine).
posted by Etrigan at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Can someone explain to me about this new FBI emails thing? I can't make heads or tails of it. It seems too conveniently timed to not be a political move by the (GOP controlled?) FBI. Like, what the fuck is going on?

They found something on Weiner's phone and Comey decided to make a very tenuous link to the Clinton FBI investigation. Everyone assumes the worst and Twitter blows up for an hour and a half until it leaks out that [ITS FUCKING NOTHING.GIF].
posted by Talez at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

And other Republicans are still trying to run for the 'most brainless' title: first-term Illinois Senator Mark Kirk, behind in the race to retain his seat, mocked his Asian-American opponent's heritage as well as her family's history of military service. When she said that her family has '"served this nation in uniform going back to the Revolution", Kirk responded with saying he'd 'forgotten' her "parents came all the way from Thailand to serve George Washington".

Please note: Kirk's opponent is US Representative Tammy Duckworth, a West Point grad and Irag War veteran who lost both legs when the helicopter she was piloting was shot down in 2004. Duckworth's mother was born in Thailand and is a naturalized American, her father was a Marine who served in Vietnam and whose family has deep roots in this country. And this is the person whose service and family Kirk is mocking.
posted by easily confused at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [133 favorites]

OK, so we're doin' this.
posted by merriment at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [31 favorites]

Is this the new thread? We left sanity in the old one.

Ha-ha-ha-ha! You can't fool me, there ain't no sanity clause.
posted by delfin at 1:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

dis_integration, My tin foil hat theory is that someone slipped Comey some money just to cause some waves close to the election.
posted by INFJ at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

For the party that claims to love America so much, the GOP sure loves dumping on war vets like Cleland, Duckworth, and McCain.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [38 favorites]

Although my state, GA, is reliably red, it has been encouraging to actually see ads for Hillary. And the incumbent Republicans usually ignore their Democratic opponents but this time our US senator feels he has to go negative on his opponent. When I voted earlier this week, though, I was still disappointed to see how many Republicans are unopposed, mainly at the state level. I really wish the Dems had listened to Howard Dean when he proposed a 50 state strategy. They could really capitalize on it this year.
posted by TedW at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

So now would be a really bad time to see what's happening on Twitter, I'm guessing?
posted by holborne at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016

And this is the person whose service and family Kirk is mocking.

Kirk has lied at least 10 different times about his own service.
posted by Etrigan at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

Even odds that they'll tie this to Kevin Bacon before Hillary.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

"Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds"

It analyzed youtube content. YOUTUBE (among other things). Youtube!
posted by drezdn at 1:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

The FBI handed the election to Trump over nothing. My stomach dropped I'm crying at my desk.
posted by chonus at 1:15 PM on October 28, 2016

It's felt over the last week that thingns were winding down. Trump's polls are collapsing. He stopped fundraising. Life was getting back to normal.

Which is why the breathless reporting on the email thing seems so silly. Headlines about what a shocker it is! A turning point in the election! Yada yada yada. The media is so desperate for a horse race that they'll turn any slight bit of news into "the biggest story ever! (this week)". It's about to make me cynical about the whole thing, which I'll fight off with my steely dagger of idealism of course, but I'm so ready for this to be over.
posted by downtohisturtles at 1:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

So now would be a really bad time to see what's happening on Twitter, I'm guessing?

The answer is usually yes.
posted by drezdn at 1:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

It analyzed youtube content. YOUTUBE (among other things). Youtube!

Do you want Skynet? Because that's how you get Skynet.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [30 favorites]

My tinfoil hat theory is that Comey planned this the whole time, Lucy, Charlie, and the football style. The previous announcement not to indict was just the setup for an October surprise punchline.

The question now is whether it'll have any teeth at this late date with Trump so deep in the weeds and with no ground game whatsoever.
posted by Sara C. at 1:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

It analyzed youtube content. YOUTUBE (among other things). Youtube!

I think you mean YUUUUGETUBE.
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 1:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Which song is that, Wordshore?

I so nearly went with a post title of "We're not just making promises that we know we'll never keep" but dropped it at the last minute. Explained in now-deleted post text...

+ + + + +

The post title is from the 1986 Genesis song Land of Confusion which seems befitting [1][2][3][4]. The video described, and the lyrics (of which several other lines could have titled this post).
posted by Wordshore at 1:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

At least the press is so tired of being taken for a ride that Comey might have engaged in the political equivalent of shooting himself in the dick. The narrative is quickly changing to potential electioneering by him.
posted by Talez at 1:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

The FBI handed the election to Trump over nothing. My stomach dropped I'm crying at my desk.

Let's not overreact.
posted by dis_integration at 1:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [117 favorites]

Since I have no shame I'll resubmit this from the tail of a previous post where I missed the “NEW POST” sign:

DJT, 1999
“People want me to [run for president] all the time … I don’t like it,” Trump said on CNBC’s “Hardball.”

“Can you imagine how controversial I’d be? You think about him [Clinton] and the women. How about me with the women? Can you imagine?”
[real]

posted by farlukar at 1:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [33 favorites]

The FBI handed the election to Trump over nothing. My stomach dropped I'm crying at my desk.

Except that didn't just happen. Take a breath and walk away from "breaking news" for a while. It's gonna be okay.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:18 PM on October 28, 2016 [98 favorites]

The post title is from the 1986 Genesis song...

DIBS ON #NEXTPOST
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

I highly doubt any large amount of people who were going to vote for Clinton after all the previous email bullshit will now change their mind and vote for Trump. This "scandal" cannot possibly shock anyone anymore, save desperate news agencies.
posted by defenestration at 1:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Nobody gave a shit about the emails a week ago. Nobody gives a shit today. So some previously unseen emails showed up on Weiner's phone and the FBI is looking to see if there is anything classified on it and don't know how long it will take to look through them.

If this is the October surprise, color me unsurprised.
posted by maxsparber at 1:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

Lets see, do I have this right?

vote for Cheeto-coloured narcissistic trophy-wife-collecting, quadruple-bankrupt self-aggrandizing abusing bigot, with zero political experience or serious policy options, because his opponent used a personal email server when Secretary of State.
posted by Artful Codger at 1:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

this will probably not be the last BOMBSHELL SCANDAL that the chuckleheads will drop before election day so it's a good idea now to remind yourself that voters are not brainless magnetic filings sweeping this way and that in response to every headline the CNN Breaking News app craps out
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [37 favorites]

Starting to get nervous about Clinton's numbers on 538. 80% isn't a remotely comfortable probability for me.

That's a 1-in-5 chance that Trump becomes president.
posted by schmod at 1:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

DIBS ON #NEXTPOST

So long as the lyrics aren't "She seems to have an invisible touch yeah. She takes control and your country tears itself apart."
posted by Talez at 1:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

This worse thing about the new email stuff is it is taking news time away from Trump's latest moronic statements and the collapse of his campaign.
posted by marxchivist at 1:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Also, I'm RIDICULOUSLY MAD at the way that the media is handling the FBI story. The headlines being run are bordering on an outright lie.
posted by schmod at 1:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

The best evidence against the Clinton Murder List is that Anthony Weiner is still alive.
posted by My Dad at 1:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [121 favorites]

"Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds"

It analyzed youtube content. YOUTUBE (among other things). Youtube!

Yeah, I was real curious until I got to this last paragraph:

"While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer's biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data," Rai said.

So it's sucking up dank memes and brigaded polls and declaring a winner based on that. Screw self driving cars, the real future is in Artificial Naivete!
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 1:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

current scene in newsrooms around the US
posted by My Dad at 1:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [33 favorites]

So it's sucking up dank memes and brigaded polls and declaring a winner based on that.

It's the Tay conjecture. Any AI that learns from the Internet will become a racist chucklefuck.
posted by Talez at 1:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

Never underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
posted by and for no one at 1:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm still mad none of you quoted "Blood on the Rooftops" for any of the debate threads
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Alternate headline: The alleged sexual misconduct of three men is dominating the final weeks of the presidential campaign.
posted by My Dad at 1:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

Although my state, GA, is reliably red, it has been encouraging to actually see ads for Hillary

May not be so reliable this year.
posted by craven_morhead at 1:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Miami Trump Supporter Lynched Dummies for Halloween.
posted by JustKeepSwimming at 1:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yup. It's 3 emails on Wiener's seized phone that they opened and looked at. This is some serious shit posting by Comey at the end of the game. I just hope it smears even more dog shit on Utah Rep Chaffetz (not my rep to vote against) for jumping to post that it was a reopened case and here comes more BENGHAZIEMAILS.
posted by msbutah at 1:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

The JCPL has ticked up from its several weeks long flatline for the first time today. We all know this is almost certainly nothing but that doesn't mean it doesn't improve Trump's chances.
posted by Justinian at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

dis_integration: Can someone explain to me about this new FBI emails thing? I can't make heads or tails of it. It seems too conveniently timed to not be a political move by the (GOP controlled?) FBI. Like, what the fuck is going on?

Talez posted a series of tweets from Jared Yates Sexton ‏@JYSexton in the prior thread:

All right. Here's what's happening in this E-mail situation, from what I can surmise. Hold on. This is stupid. 1/

Comey has a duty to report anything new to committees. It's a requirement that he keep them abreast. 2/

There's a device that's been found. The E-mails are apparently not from HRC. They may have NOTHING to do with her, or they might 3/

Either way, he's forced to keep committees up to date. GOP saw this update as an opportunity to harm HRC and influence down ballot 4/

GOP knew media is currently starving for a story as Trump isn't competitive anymore. They found a story that will get hits/sell ads 5/

Meanwhile, something that might not have anything to do with HRC will follow her into office and continue concealing narrative 6/

It's not going to cost election. It might be absolutely nothing. But it's a headline people will click and retweet 7/7

Additional information, from the prior thread: the FBI investigation is into Anthony Weiner's sexting of an under-age girl across state lines, which lead them to seize electronic devices belonging to Huma Abedin, a top aide to Clinton. "The bureau told Congress on Friday that it had uncovered new emails related to the Clinton case — one federal official said they numbered in the thousands — potentially reigniting an issue that has weighed on the presidential campaign and offering a lifeline to Donald J. Trump less than two weeks before the election."

More from the NY Times.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

"Trump will win the election and is more popular than Obama in 2008, AI system finds"

After the Bundys going scot-free, I believe anything's possible now.
posted by Thorzdad at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

James Comey kinda looks like John Ashcroft.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016

I'm still mad none of you quoted "Blood on the Rooftops" for any of the debate threads

THERE'S STILL TIME
posted by cooker girl at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016

vote for Cheeto-coloured narcissistic trophy-wife-collecting, quadruple-bankrupt self-aggrandizing abusing bigot, with zero political experience or serious policy options, because his opponent used a personal email server when Secretary of State.

She murdered all them Bengazians, too.

(Not really.)
posted by uraniumwilly at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

via daily kos
"Already, we have seen characterizations that the FBI is 'reopening' an investigation but Comey's words do not match that characterization. Director Comey's letter refers to emails that have come to light in an unrelated case, but we have no idea what those emails are and the Director himself notes they may not even be significant.
"It is extraordinary that we would see something like this just 11 days out from a presidential election.
"The Director owes it to the American people to immediately provide the full details of what he is now examining. We are confident this will not produce any conclusions different from the one the FBI reached in July."

That sounds like a very polite way of saying Comey’s action looks a little political here. "
posted by Postroad at 1:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

I just saw an AP tweet that says that the emails in question did not come from the private server.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump is already 2 hrs late to his Maine rally and now is stuck on his plane at the airport because they can't find stairs tall enough to reach the exit door. [tweet]
posted by melissasaurus at 1:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [31 favorites]

(Breaks bottle of expired Snapple against monitor to christen thread)
posted by Senor Cardgage at 1:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [41 favorites]

Texas voter here. BF and I went to a local Hispanic market to vote this afternoon. The line wasn't too long but it was busy the whole time we were there. The vibe was really nice! Not to make assumptions, but it looked like a lot of Dem voters. Though the person in front of us asked for a paper ballot and seemed a little put out that they weren't available.

While I was in the booth I got a text that my nephew had been born - a health 7lbs 15oz. We got tortas from the lunch counter after.
posted by rabbitbookworm at 1:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [107 favorites]

"On one hand, Trump is a grotesquely unqualified, racist, sexist man who constantly displays poor judgement, impulse control and breathtaking levels of ignorance on virtually every possible subject, lies repeatedly and without remorse and has admitted to sexually assaulting women on several occasions. On the other, Clinton is a woman. Plus...something about emails? What to do, what to do...?"

No this is bull. You can't even make fun of "undecided" voters because none of them think this way. They have no information and/or are completely unskilled in critical thinking. This is liberal ha-ha's to make us feel better about the giant SHITNOZZLE that just got opened up.
posted by chonus at 1:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

The FBI handed the election to Trump over nothing. My stomach dropped I'm crying at my desk.

Look, October surprises actually have to have content - it's not like the mere fact of having some new info in late October magically throws the election. I cannot even overstate how no one cares. And how political this looks, and how it's going to dissipate pretty quick - if it doesn't actually have the opposite effect and rile up the Democratic voters because it's such nonsense.

Ask yourself: Are you less or more likely to go pull the lever for Clinton next month? I bet it's more, right? We are mostly fairly average on metafilter - we're not uniquely principled, uniquely brilliant citizens. Most likely Democratic voters are reacting mostly like us here.
posted by Frowner at 1:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

"Watch Trump Sexually Humiliate A Woman Onstage In 2011"
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

A newly surfaced video shows Donald Trump grabbing and kissing a former Miss Universe onstage (note, I have no idea what the hell is going to happen in the video autoplay, so watch out)
posted by My Dad at 1:31 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Everybody has reason to pretend this is a horse race. The press wants to sell papers. The frontrunner wants to scare backers with the possibility of a loss, while the trailing candidate wants to encourage backers with the possibility of a win.

So nothingburders are going to get a lot of play right now. But we're in scandal fatigue, or the fact that sexual misconduct allegations against Trump keep rolling out, Bill Cosby-style, would be getting more play.
posted by maxsparber at 1:32 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

> Yup. It's 3 emails on Wiener's seized phone that they opened and looked at. This is some serious shit posting by Comey at the end of the game.

"The F.B.I. is investigating illicit text messages that Mr. Weiner sent to a 15-year-old girl in North Carolina. The bureau told Congress on Friday that it had uncovered new emails related to the Clinton case — one federal official said they numbered in the thousands — potentially reigniting an issue that has weighed on the presidential campaign and offering a lifeline to Donald J. Trump less than two weeks before the election."

From the NYT piece.

Where did you hear it was "3 emails"?

Claiming Comey is a Republican plant is deeply stupid.
posted by ugly at 1:32 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

"Watch Trump Sexually Humiliate A Woman Onstage In 2011"

Nah I'm good thanks though
posted by theodolite at 1:32 PM on October 28, 2016 [104 favorites]

btw if your reaction to that video is "oh this won't matter, none of Trump's supporters care how gross and awful he is" but you're freaking out about Comey's stupid email 'update,' maybe recalibrate your personal JCPL sensors?
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:32 PM on October 28, 2016 [27 favorites]

the breathless reporting on the email thing seems so silly. Headlines about what a shocker it is! A turning point in the election! Yada yada yada. The media is so desperate for a horse race that they'll turn any slight bit of news into "the biggest story ever! (this week)".

Exactly. It might fire up the people who just know Clinton is a crook, but they're already voting for Trump anyway (or just stinking up Facebook with their posts). As I said in the previous thread, as jonesed as the media are to report on a Clinton scandal, they can't explain in 25 words exactly what's supposed to be the issue here. The tell is the frequent use of the phrase "raises questions," which means the media has no clear evidence of wrongdoing but would like to imply it anyway.

Clinton has a bunch of early voting ballots in the bank anyway, and her operation is currently playing on Republican turf -- Georgia and Texas, for crying out loud. The Blue Wall of electoral votes won by Obama looks fairly well unassailable, and that's where I like to mention that Trump could in fact win Ohio or Florida or both and it wouldn't matter -- Clinton would still cruise to an easy electoral victory.
posted by Gelatin at 1:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

Also, for pete's sake, it's what, ten days out? With 24 hour news cycles, this breaking on a Friday ten days out is....well, do you even remember all the Trump garbage at this point? I sure don't, and it's a lot more gripping than "maybe some emails, maybe".
posted by Frowner at 1:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

remind yourself that voters are not brainless magnetic filings sweeping this way and that in response to every headline

Assumes facts not in evidence.
posted by Scoop at 1:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

The FBI handed the election to Trump over nothing. My stomach dropped I'm crying at my desk.

This story was big for about five minutes, until it was overshadowed by live amateur video of a runway fire, then Trump getting stuck on his plane, and now a new sexual assault video.

The media will eventually calm down tonight about that Weiner shithead. The new Trump video, as terrible as it is, is a LOT easier to talk about. It's a video, FFS, not some arcane FBI procedure.
posted by My Dad at 1:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Frowner: "I cannot even overstate how no one cares."

Twitter, Google, CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC all disagree with you.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&q=clinton%20fbi,trump%20women

This is huge.
posted by ugly at 1:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

I got the '3 emails' bit from twitter.
posted by msbutah at 1:34 PM on October 28, 2016

I know you worked super hard on this thread and it's chock full of links, for which I thank you, but there's no Hamilton title and I'm having a really bad day and this makes me extra sad and I'm just having a hard time dealing with this all and I don't ask for much but an appropriate lyric really shouldn't be too much to ask for because I'm just trying to cope here that's all.
posted by zachlipton at 1:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [34 favorites]

I'm pretty upset about this email bullshit. This seems to be a blatantly partisan act by the FBI Director and he should be ashamed of himself. It is completely outrageous.
posted by humanfont at 1:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

The New Yorker has somehow cartooned this MetaFilter thread right now.

Seriously; perhaps make a nice pot of tea and have a contemplative sit down, with an agreeable biscuit or two. Breathe.
posted by Wordshore at 1:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

The Law Street blog seems to have heard it is only three emails too.
posted by maxsparber at 1:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Twitter, Google, CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC all disagree with you.

They'll cover it for a hot second, then move on. Google's new thing is about Biden maybe getting a top foreign post.
posted by joyceanmachine at 1:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Texas poll worker checking in!

I've been working the 6am-1pm shift at a Travis County polling place, then going to my regular job afterward so I'm a little brain-fried at this point, but man, we're having fun. Our crew is hilarious, kind, and patient, and we've had some wonderful folks come through the line. We are lucky that all of our voters have been respectful of each other and that there hasn't been a whole lot of drama. We never have lines if anyone in south Austin wants to know where to vote! I kinda wonder if rabbitbookworm up there came to see me earlier.

We've had a few people ask about voting machines glitches, and one man who saw a "news report" about machines switching straight ticket R votes to Hillary actually come back and claim that it happened to him. We dutifully took an affidavit from him and reported it to the county elections office so they can look into it, but I would put money on the fact that it was user error.

I'll be out there all next week and election day too! Y'all keep those voters coming!
posted by marshmallow peep at 1:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [57 favorites]

Twitter, Google, CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC all disagree with you.

Eh, everyone is getting breaking news updates and trying to figure out what's going on. But the story is so empty of content it can't keep anyone's interest long. Either the FBI reopens and recommends prosecution, or this story dies out.
posted by dis_integration at 1:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'm pretty upset about this email bullshit. This seems to be a blatantly partisan act by the FBI Director and he should be ashamed of himself. It is completely outrageous.

You mean the same director that wouldn't pursue legal action against her in the first place?
posted by uraniumwilly at 1:37 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&q=clinton%20fbi,trump%20women

This is huge.

if you're gonna use some google trend graph to make your point, maybe look for one without a hilariously precipitous dropoff at the end
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:37 PM on October 28, 2016 [27 favorites]

Yes, I believe they did mean that same director, uraniumwilly. What's your point?
posted by defenestration at 1:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Paging Dr. Metaphor: "Stairs at Portland airport too short for Trump plane, currently trying to call in reserve stairs" --@NYTnickc
posted by zachlipton at 1:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Eh, everyone is getting breaking news updates and trying to figure out what's going on. But the story is so empty of content it can't keep anyone's interest long. Either the FBI reopens and recommends prosecution, or this story dies out.

Right. But every hour matters between now and the close of polls. Every hour that is a good news cycle for Clinton improves her chances, and every hour that is a bad news cycle for Clinton improves Trump's chances. People are voting as we speak and the remaining undecideds are, er, deciding.
posted by Justinian at 1:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

> I'm pretty upset about this email bullshit. This seems to be a blatantly partisan act by the FBI Director and he should be ashamed of himself. It is completely outrageous.

Uh, I dunno if you have not been checking the big newspapers lately, or if you're referring to ALL the emails (there're a few completely separate leaks, all interlinked), but yesterday there was a tonne of reporting about emails leaked on Wikileaks revealing several crazy things. Primarily, Neera Tanden's emails confirmed that Clinton *was* deceptive and withheld emails during the Benghazi investigation ("They wanted to get away with it"), and as well some really sordid details about the Clinton Foundation and Bill's multimillion dollar compensation from a variety of states and corporate sponsors.

This is not all just some big right-wing conspiracy. There's a lot of meat on those bones.
posted by ugly at 1:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is not all just some big right-wing conspiracy. There's a lot of meat on those bones.

Well, no, that's not actually true. Though as I said the impact politically is separate from the lack of substance.
posted by Justinian at 1:41 PM on October 28, 2016 [26 favorites]

I kinda wonder if rabbitbookworm up there came to see me earlier.

I was at Fiesta Mart up north. Thanks so much for volunteering!
posted by rabbitbookworm at 1:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

But every hour matters between now and the close of polls.

Even in close races, there has never been a circumstance where the person behind in the polls won the presidency. Not since we started polling.

I mean, maybe this is the one that breaks the mold, but based on past evidence, there isn't going to be much impact in anything that happens this week, unless it is something unheard of. A non-scandal drummed up at the last second will barely make a splash.
posted by maxsparber at 1:44 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is not all just some big right-wing conspiracy. There's a lot of meat on those bones.

Got a source on Benghazi emails that isn't Breitbart, Judicial Watch, or The Daily Caller? That's all google is throwing at me atm.

As for the Bill stuff, there's no meat. There is an angry man explaining that he has solicited foundation money and gigs on Bill's behalf and should be allowed to trade on his name as a result. Chelsea's insistence that he not do so makes her a spoiled brat.
posted by xyzzy at 1:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

This is not all just some big right-wing conspiracy. There's a lot of meat on those bones.

YES THANK YOU. These three emails that were not sent by Hillary and that were not on her server and that were already handed over ages ago shows that Clinton can't be trusted and is unfit for office.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [97 favorites]

And PS, this is not a close race.
posted by maxsparber at 1:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Yeah I feel like this is a bit of a "read the room" situation. Right this instant is really not one where a lot of people are inclined to start another discussion about something Neera Tanden said with someone who hasn't participated in previous such discussions.
posted by zachlipton at 1:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

All I'm saying is that this is a big deal. Pretending it isn't only hurts your candidate's chances.

Whether it's a big deal or not turns entirely on (a) whether the press actually reports on what the FBI is doing, rather than what Jason Chaffetz thinks they're doing because he has a brain the size of a walnut; and (b) whether anything new surfaces before the election as a result of the FBI reviewing these e-mails.

Right now all that's known for sure is that there are e-mails the FBI did not previously review, and which it now has and is reviewing. Comey decided he needed to inform the committees of this because he previously testified that the FBI had reviewed all the Clinton-related e-mails in its possession, and that stopped being true.

The existing review turned up exactly zero damning revelations, no matter how much the GOP wishes it had, and there is no reason to assume, absent other information or a belief that real life follows rules of dramatic irony, that a review of Weiner-adjacent documents will change that track record.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

Also, I'm RIDICULOUSLY MAD at the way that the media is handling the FBI story. The headlines being run are bordering on an outright lie.

It helps to remember that the Republican complaints about the "liberal media" are an outright lie.
posted by Gelatin at 1:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

I dunno, if I were a betting person, I would bet that this won't have significant effect - because Trump, if nothing else.

"Well, now that there's some more of the same, I am going to vote for Trump, or vote for a third party candidate, or stay home, because now - after some emails reveal that Hillary is pretty typical for a rich and powerful politician in that she sometimes schemes a little and is close to the banks - I am totally onboard with expelling Mexicans, interning Muslims, the jailing of Trump's political opponents, the Ryan budget, whatever shady stuff is going on with Putin and a global stock market crash. What's all that compared to something vague about the Clinton foundation?"

Or not, as the case may be.
posted by Frowner at 1:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

A few comments removed; just because we've got a peppy new thread doesn't mean we have to go whole hog on "no YOU!" hijinks on a Friday afternoon. If you're finding yourself immediately getting into several comments of restating your position, go ahead and just take a breath and do something else for a bit.
posted by cortex (staff) at 1:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Frowner: Ask yourself: Are you less or more likely to go pull the lever for Clinton next month? I bet it's more, right? We are mostly fairly average on metafilter - we're not uniquely principled, uniquely brilliant citizens. Most likely Democratic voters are reacting mostly like us here.

This is so far from true. We are way way more informed on the issues, and far more able to discern what is noise and what is not, than "average." That's not egotism--that comes from the years all of us have spent here with endless discussion and fact-finding and opinion and sourcing. We are not the average voter.

And I'm not worried about "likely Democratic voters." I'm worried about the idiot undecideds who have been unsure of WHO IS A BETTER CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT in the face of these two choices.
posted by chonus at 1:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [26 favorites]

Eleven days. Eleven days. Eleven days.

our long national nightmare will not end in 11 days. congress is still infested with screwballs and people who live in a reality that doesn't exist.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 1:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [52 favorites]

I think all the speculation that there is a bunch of hot October Surprise stuff to come out about Trump has been show to be false at this point. If it was out there we'd have seen it now. The Clinton camp would have dropped it to counter today's news.
posted by Justinian at 1:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

This whole email thing is actually the perfect example of people freaking out and accusing Hillary of being evil and corrupt with zero or even contra evidence. Like, you couldn't script it any stupider. And yet, even though this is the dumbest "scandal" of all time, Bernie supporters and other leaners very well may stay home because "I just know that she's not trustworthy."
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 1:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

The existing review turned up exactly zero damning revelations

This is part of the reason why I and probably others are feeling particularly anxious about this story, because there's no way of knowing whether or not there'll be damning revelations. Trump is a monster and I'd never vote for anyone but HRC, but I don't trust that those emails are clean.
posted by zeusianfog at 1:50 PM on October 28, 2016

our long national nightmare will not end in 11 days. congress is still infested with screwballs and people who live in a reality that doesn't exist.

The nightmare will become less vicious if the senate changes to democratic-controlled.
posted by uraniumwilly at 1:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

I do think there is still a real possibility that we will find out something extraordinary about Trump. Like, he once hunted humans for sport.
posted by maxsparber at 1:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

What a great post! Such a pleasure to make this my 1000th favorite after more than 14 years on the blue. Mefi at its best.
posted by ouke at 1:51 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Like, he once hunted humans for sport.

Once?
posted by Faint of Butt at 1:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

The nightmare will become less vicious if the senate changes to democratic-controlled.
posted by uraniumwilly at 4:50 PM

agreed. has anyone got any figures on how many seats are in contention, i am ignorant on this matter. (and many others.)
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 1:53 PM on October 28, 2016

Eh, I am on a phone and can't be bothered to cut and paste unlinked URLs.
posted by xyzzy at 1:54 PM on October 28, 2016

I dunno, if I were a betting person, I would bet that this won't have significant effect - because Trump, if nothing else.

Lo and behold, when the story broke, Predictwise dropped from 90% probability of Clinton winning to 87%. It's now back to 88%. Link

I would say betting persons don't think it will have a significant effect.
posted by condour75 at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

"The existing review turned up exactly zero damning revelations"

Absolutely false. In his testimony to congress, Comey condemned Clinton's behaviour harshly, but said there was no intent to break federal records laws and thus no prosecutor would reasonably be expected to indict.

Further, the files the FBI released about the investigation had at least one damning revelation, that of the offer between Clinton and FBI to unclassify an email, for which they'd bribe them with agreeing to place some agents the FBI wanted. The White House and FBI stated that such a deal did not happen, but that denial seems to imply that the deal was offered. That's damning.

Recently leaked emails of John Podesta's show that there's definitely a lot of evidence that the Clinton group *was* trying to hide emails from the investigators.
posted by ugly at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

And yet, even though this is the dumbest "scandal" of all time, Bernie supporters and other leaners very well may stay home because "I just know that she's not trustworthy."

It feels really, really weird to be the one saying "I have more faith in ordinary Americans than that" about something.

Some people somewhere will vote stupidly for stupid reasons, yes. Some Bern-it-down types will vote for Trump or whatever because the revolution, man. Most people won't. Most people who are not already Trumpists have enough common sense to understand that Trump is a fuck of a lot worse than Hillary Clinton, even if she's not exactly Caesar's wife.

We are being political hypochondriacs here, like someone sitting at home convincing themselves that their twitchy eyelid means they have ALS.
posted by Frowner at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [39 favorites]

Now is the time to leak that video of Trump throwing a banquet for the gods and serving the flesh of his own son
posted by theodolite at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Trump is already 2 hrs late to his Maine rally and now is stuck on his plane at the airport because they can't find stairs tall enough to reach the exit door.

Ooooo...alsoo...our plane refueling lines are like...rilly rilly short or something and don't like...reach your plane...Soreeeee!
posted by sexyrobot at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [34 favorites]

has anyone got any figures on how many seats are in contention

Assuming Clinton wins, she needs 4 senate seats (Kaine breaks ties). Right now most people are saying she's likely to get 5-7.
posted by chris24 at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

An undecided voter sits alone at home, trying to come to a decision:

"On one hand, Trump is a grotesquely unqualified, racist, sexist man who constantly displays poor judgement, impulse control and breathtaking levels of ignorance on virtually every possible subject, lies repeatedly and without remorse and has admitted to sexually assaulting women on several occasions. On the other, Clinton is a woman. Plus...something about emails? What to do, what to do...?"

"And she kills babies, and isn't a Christian, and more so will not make this One Nation Under Our Christian God but instead let Muslims and other nefarious folks into our country, and will open the borders to all the rapists and crooks, and she's crooked, and she's a liar, and she's part of the Elite Global Conspiracy and/or Big Government."

Let's not pretend that it's just reason and facts come into play for undecided people.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Absolutely false. In his testimony to congress, Comey condemned Clinton's behaviour harshly, but said there was no intent to break federal records laws and thus no prosecutor would reasonably be expected to indict.

I think we have different standards on what constitutes "damning" in the context of an FBI-led criminal investigation.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Like, he once hunted humans for sport.

Sport? He's still got freezers full of those "Trump Steaks" he couldn't move.
posted by pracowity at 1:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

We are being political hypochondriacs here, like someone sitting at home convincing themselves that their twitchy eyelid means they have ALS.

Agreed. I've been refreshing Twitter and my news feeds like a Skinner Box Mouse since this morning, and I think it's time to unplug a while, maybe for the entire weekend.

Hugs to all of ya, and don't let the bastards grind you down.
posted by Mooski at 1:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

feel relatively confident that the smoking gun that reveals Hillary to be a monster is not somehow hidden

Oh, but one of those emails might imply something. And Comey might express further disappointment in Clinton.
posted by maxsparber at 1:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Further, the files the FBI released about the investigation had at least one damning revelation, that of the offer between Clinton and FBI to unclassify an email, for which they'd bribe them with agreeing to place some agents the FBI wanted. The White House and FBI stated that such a deal did not happen, but that denial seems to imply that the deal was offered. That's damning.

Bro, that was disproven as "damning" like, two weeks ago.

Recently leaked emails of John Podesta's show that there's definitely a lot of evidence that the Clinton group *was* trying to hide emails from the investigators.

This is the characterization from the Wingnutistan blogosphere, yes.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [61 favorites]

Further, the files the FBI released about the investigation had at least one damning revelation, that of the offer between Clinton and FBI to unclassify an email, for which they'd bribe them with agreeing to place some agents the FBI wanted. The White House and FBI stated that such a deal did not happen, but that denial seems to imply that the deal was offered. That's damning.

Yeah, if you're going to come in here with supposedly incriminating facts, try to get them right. The FBI agent said he was the one who started talk of a quid pro quo, not Kennedy at State. And once the email was found to be about Benghazi, it wan't pursued further.
posted by chris24 at 1:59 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

Speaking to the Jewish Press about the January 25, 2006, election for the second Palestinian Legislative Council (the legislature of the Palestinian National Authority), Clinton weighed in about the result, which was a resounding victory for Hamas (74 seats) over the U.S.-preferred Fatah (45 seats).

“I do not think we should have pushed for an election in the Palestinian territories. I think that was a big mistake,” said Sen. Clinton. “And if we were going to push for an election, then we should have made sure that we did something to determine who was going to win.”

This is all interpreted in the most pro-Trump way possible of course, with a short snippet of the audio taken out of context, accusations that this relates to Trump's claim that the current US election is "rigged," a bunch of nonsense about the magic words "Islamic terrorism," and accusations of a Jewish Press coverup.

For starters, the headline is misleading. She spoke after the election, so the worst you could say is that she "proposed that we should have rigged" the election, not proposed doing so. There's also a far more charitable way to interpret her comments, which are presented without context, which is that she thinks the US should not have pushed for an election before doing the polls to determine whether Hamas would likely win, because it would have been better strategy not to argue in favor of such an election if that was the predicted outcome.

As usual, the article ends with the disclaimer: "Disclosure: Donald Trump is the father-in-law of Jared Kushner, publisher of Observer Media."
posted by zachlipton at 2:01 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

At least the press is so tired of being taken for a ride that Comey might have engaged in the political equivalent of shooting himself in the dick. The narrative is quickly changing to potential electioneering by him.

I'm in the middle of Boorstin's The Image, so I'm really getting a kick, etc.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 2:01 PM on October 28, 2016

Ball of Confusion ( Neville Bros. )
posted by mikelieman at 2:02 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Computer seized in Weiner probe prompts FBI to take new steps in Clinton email inquiry

Heh heh heh.

"Weiner probe."
posted by Cookiebastard at 2:03 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

"Weiner probe."

what's funny is, that's one of the anagrams of "Reince Priebus"
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [71 favorites]

there's no Hamilton title and I'm having a really bad day and this makes me extra sad and I'm just having a hard time dealing with this all and I don't ask for much but an appropriate lyric really shouldn't be too much to ask for because I'm just trying to cope here that's all.

Wait for it, wait for it....
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:06 PM on October 28, 2016 [25 favorites]

Just to add to the giant pile of crap, Jared Kushner's Observer has this, which is now making the rounds: 2006 Audio Emerges of Hillary Clinton Proposing Rigging Palestine Election. It's a short snip from a decade old tape where Clinton met with the editorial board of the Jewish Press as part of her Senate campaign.

Oh, so now everyone is going to pretend to care about Palestine. I see. I mean, for fuck's sake, if we're going to weaponize Clinton's/the US's attitude toward the Palestinian election process, could we please at least continue to care about Palestine after the election?

Nope? That's what I thought.
posted by Frowner at 2:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [40 favorites]

Seriously, ugly, I don't know why you're coming in like a cannonball here but I need you to cut it out and give the thread a break starting immediately.
posted by cortex (staff) at 2:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [59 favorites]

It feels really, really weird to be the one saying "I have more faith in ordinary Americans than that" about something.

After the Bundy group acquittal (IN PORTLAND OREGON) my faith in ordinary Americans just took yet another thundering hit.
posted by uraniumwilly at 2:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

zachlipton: Just to add to the giant pile of crap, Jared Kushner's Observer has this, which is now making the rounds: 2006 Audio Emerges of Hillary Clinton Proposing Rigging Palestine Election.

It hasn't made the rounds to other major news outlets yet, FWIW, but it's just 4 hours old.
posted by filthy light thief at 2:08 PM on October 28, 2016

"Weiner probe."

what's funny is, that's one of the anagrams of "Reince Priebus"

Dammit, I was so ready to believe that.
posted by Surely This at 2:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

FWIW: @NateSilver538: As a benchmark Clinton lost 2 points when Comey made news in July. If she lost 2 points now, Trump's chances would increase to about 30/35%.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

So, for folks who are worried about what might be in these new emails that the FBI is reviewing, consider:
* Anthony Weiner sent them.
* He hasn't been a Congressional Representative since 2011.
* The thing that could be potentially illegal about Clinton keeping emails on a private server was if that resulted in improper handling of classified information.
* Do you think Weiner would have been emailing Clinton classified information? I mean, for reals, not in a "my penis is classified har har" sense?

In other words, chances are strong that she's no Maxime Bernier.
posted by eviemath at 2:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

The Observer article is where it started, and I've seen it making the rounds of right-wing Twitter.

Trump also tweeted "Just out: Neera Tanden, Hillary Clinton adviser said, “Israel is depressing.” I think Israel is inspiring!" today. So it seems he's trying to make this a thing (or was, before Comey lobbed a live grenade into the middle of everything). And I mean, is there anyone, including leaders of the Israeli government, who doesn't find Israel to be depressing at least occasionally if not all the time?
posted by zachlipton at 2:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

There is nothing there right now. When there is, we will take it seriously.

My standard is: For each specific law alleged to have been violated by Hillary Clinton, explicitly state the statute, and enumerate the elements required by it, and specify the overt acts which prove they were intentionally violated.

Claims made without evidence can be dismissed with without evidence.
posted by mikelieman at 2:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [32 favorites]

3 emails vs. thousands of emails

Eichenwald just sent out a tweet walking back the 3 emails figure:

Kurt Eichenwald ‏@kurteichenwald 9m9 minutes ago
Have to amend earlier tweet. Not sure if NBC report on # of emails is correct. However, Clinton withheld none of them & comey had to report.

Implicitly, it appears that "thousands of emails" refers to the total number of emails on Huma Abedin's device.

The 3 emails (and other stated limits, such as not from Hillary's server, not from Hillary, not withheld) would be those with some kind of connection to Hillary -- as recipient, cc:, or maybe just even mentioned in it.

eviemath: > Anthony Weiner sent them.

I don't think that's been established. One solid report said his wife Huma Abedin's devices were also seized, and since she's Hillary's top aide, I think it's much more likely that he was not involved.
posted by msalt at 2:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Agreed. I've been refreshing Twitter and my news feeds like a Skinner Box Mouse since this morning, and I think it's time to unplug a while, maybe for the entire weekend.

Daylight saving time ends this weekend in the UK, and next weekend in the US. After then, evenings are suddenly an hour plus earlier. So getting away from the non-work screen and keyboard for the next few days (if you can) and getting outside to enjoy these last few longer days of actual daylight, is a healthy - in body and mind - idea.
posted by Wordshore at 2:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

for trump supporters, i think today is what's known as the "hope spot" in their personal horror movie, that moment near the end where the sun is shining and things seem to finally be to be looking up for our remaining heroes. unfortunately for them, there's still a good fifteen minutes running time, and if hillary's proven anything it's that she has that michael-myers tenacity to resurrect herself no matter what roadblocks have been thrown up to stop her. and i don't think their final girl is going to make it to the credits.
posted by rotten at 2:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [37 favorites]

Yeah, more than 3 emails... From the NY Times. WASHINGTON — A new trove of emails that appear pertinent to the now-closed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server was discovered after the F.B.I. seized at least one electronic device shared by Anthony D. Weiner and his estranged wife, Huma Abedin, a top aide to Mrs. Clinton, federal law enforcement officials said Friday.
posted by uraniumwilly at 2:16 PM on October 28, 2016

Hmm, that's a reasonable point, msalt. Though, would the FBI be allowed to search indiscriminantly through Abedin's email in an investigation of Weiner? Using the same computer to check their email is different from sharing an email account. Though I suppose a warrant could have been issued for all email and files on that computer, which could include any locally stored emails from Abedin's account.
posted by eviemath at 2:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Will any future administration or campaign ever use email again?
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 2:18 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Mark Kirk issued a twitter apology to Tammy Duckworth:

Sincere apologies to an American hero, Tammy Duckworth, and gratitude for her family's service. #ilsen

posted by xyzzy at 2:18 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Leslie Odom Jr.:

Sara Bareilles and This American Life asked me to sing a song Sara wrote about the election from the imagined perspective of POTUS. Check it out! Also early voting has begun! Let me know who you're voting for! #BurrWithHer #StrongerTogether

video.

Let the glorious tones of Leslie Odom Jr's Obama anger translator slowly help soothe you.
posted by zachlipton at 2:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [31 favorites]

This is not all just some big right-wing conspiracy. There's a lot of meat on those bones.

The FBI director says he has learned of emails which "may be pertinent to the investigation." He did not say they were pertinent, or who sent / received those emails, how many emails, or why he believes that those emails contain anything that might be pertinent. This is a nakedly partisans statement. It provides just enough information to raise suspicions, but not enough information for objective review. He deliberately left out important facts which we are now learning from "sources inside the Justice department." Specifically the the emails are from Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin's personal electronic devices. That Hillary did not send the emails. And that the contents of the emails do not initially appear to be a game changer.

I am reminded of his unprofessional statements at the conclusion of the investigation this summer. He issued a statement that attacked Hillary, even while exonerating her. He overstated what evidence there was of classified materials on the private server. It wasn't until Democrats forced him to admit that there were only 3 emails, and that those emails were not marked classified according to the classification manuals of the US. That a reasonable person would have assumed the information was not classified.
posted by humanfont at 2:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [54 favorites]

I generally enjoy John Fugelsang's show on Sirius, but he is on this weird hand-wringing kick about how nasty and terrible things are going to be after Clinton is elected, because of how energized the Republicans will be and Fox News and so on, and it annoys me no end. Because it's kind of like he's being patronizing to women, warning us not to get too happy because Men Can Be Terrible! And this historic victory will probably not result in any kind of good thing happening! Don't get your little hearts broken, ladies!

I can't figure out why he thinks this is helpful; maybe he thinks it will help midterm voting in two years, although honestly it almost sounds like he's looking forward to it all going to shit.

And here's the deal; women know how nasty sexist asshole men can be. We really do! And those of us voting for Clinton want to do it anyway, because she is the best candidate and we need a woman to break that ceiling. I don't expect her to be God-Empress of the Matriarchy and banish all sexism, but I also think that guys (even allies like Fugelsang) are extremely prone to underestimating women in general, and Clinton in particular.

I am, in general, tired of dudes who see women achieving something and feel compelled to tell us why it doesn't really matter/isn't worth celebrating.
posted by emjaybee at 2:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [66 favorites]

As per usual, this breaking politics story went from House of Cards to Veep within roughly two hours
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [16 favorites]

The FBI director says he has learned of emails which "may be pertinent to the investigation." He did not say they were pertinent

To be accurate, he didn't say they "may be pertinent" he said they "appear to be pertinent". That's somewhat different.
posted by Justinian at 2:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Zzzzzz whoops I fell asleep when I heard "emails"
posted by agregoli at 2:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

Zen teacher Brad Warner has a relevant blog post up: Resist Xenophobia!

I hope he's right that "the human collective might be smarter than any of us as individuals. We may be forcing ourselves into these head-on confrontations knowing unconsciously that it’s the only way things will ever get solved."
posted by Lexica at 2:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Mark Kirk issued a twitter apology to Tammy Duckworth:

Sincere apologies to an American hero, Tammy Duckworth, and gratitude for her family's service. #ilsen

John Scalzi ‏@scalzi
I'm sorry, that apology was hard to hear around the foot in your mouth.
posted by zakur at 2:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [54 favorites]

I'm basically banned from being political outside of MeFi for marital harmony's sake.

But I so want to go out for Halloween dressed as Donald Trump.

In an orange prison jumpsuit.

I'd be orange from head to toe.
posted by ocschwar at 2:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

🐔 Clinton is down to 92% on The Upshot!
posted by beerperson at 2:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

unfortunately for them, there's still a good fifteen minutes running time, and if hillary's proven anything it's that she has that michael-myers tenacity to resurrect herself no matter what roadblocks have been thrown up to stop her. and i don't think their final girl is going to make it to the credits.

Ooh, this might be a fun game. Of all Trump's various boosters and surrogates, can we identify the Athlete, the Scholar, the Fool, the Slut, and the Virgin?
posted by Faint of Butt at 2:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Zzzzzz whoops I fell asleep when I heard "emails"

You and 3/4 of the rest of the country, I think.

That said, it's pretty impressive how this story went from "Ugh, I guess this was the October Surprise, this is fucking terrible" to "Wait, that was it?" in the span of... maybe 30 minutes, to be very charitable.
posted by tobascodagama at 2:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Ooh, this might be a fun game. Of all Trump's various boosters and surrogates, can we identify the Athlete, the Scholar, the Fool, the Slut, and the Virgin?

They're all the Fool. There's no such thing as a slut. And virginity is a fake concept invented by men.
posted by melissasaurus at 2:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [70 favorites]

Will any future administration or campaign ever use email again?

As I pointed out in, oh, 1994, the US government's war on strong encryption would turn around and bite them in the ass when they started using electronic communication as a matter of course. The time to normalize encryption was when email was new to most people. Retroactively changing how people view secure communication, especially for perfectly innocent activity, is a tough row to hoe.

I am reminded of the Casey Anthony case and how much was made of the google searches linked to the family computer. Anyone reviewing my google activity might wonder how long I've been a serial killer due to my habit of googling stuff while I watch true crime shows or documentaries.
posted by xyzzy at 2:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

Dammit. The archetype is the Whore, not the Slut. Stupid brain.
posted by Faint of Butt at 2:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Okay I have taken some deep breaths and, for my "positive image" mental work, imagined Donald Trump, stuck on his plane, in a total rage and jonesing for his phone, which his staff is playing Keep-Away with, and I don't want to be like him, so I am not going to freak out over this anymore (unless I am given actual hard-facts reasons to).

no but seriously imagine what Donald Trump is saying/doing right now trapped on a plane on a runway in Portland
posted by chonus at 2:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Thanks for calming me down about the new emails story. I was very upset when I saw the initial stories.
Also, yay, new election thread!
posted by Gadgetenvy at 2:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

I suspect that "chance of winning" in 538's model is an oversimplification of what those odds mean in Monte Carlo statistics, but I'm recovering from a kidney stone and it's not entirely my area of expertise.

Won't someone think of the poor exploited emails? Impounded, jailed, kidnapped across international borders for nefarious political plots.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 2:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

OK, so just trying to summarize here if I understand the new email thing correctly:

-They surfaced as a result of the Weiner investigation;
-were likely on a device owned/used by Weiner's spouse, Huma Abedin
-were not on Hillary's private server;
-may or may not discuss anything about Hillary's private server;
-might not have anything to do with anything nefarious or criminal;
-and this information became public because the FBI director is obliged to let what seems an inordinate amount of Congressional committees know if he makes any move that has anything to do with the words "Hillary" and "email"
posted by nubs at 2:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

The FBI handed the election to Trump over nothing. My stomach dropped I'm crying at my desk.

Not even freaking close. They could literally reopen the investigation completely. They could indict and charge her with high crimes. Hell, they could arrest her on live television as she collapses from some kind of rare alien neurological condition and flops around like a fish.

She. Would. Still. Win.

(Note that these things are not gonna happen, anyway. I am saying even-if, in some nightmarish worst-case world, it still would not matter. Trump is the very pinnacle of radioactive evil incarnate at this point. He will be crushed, regardless. Please, please relax, for your own sanity.)
posted by rokusan at 2:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Chuck Todd and MSNBC are pretty breathless about this.
posted by zutalors! at 2:35 PM on October 28, 2016

Chuck Todd and MSNBC are pretty breathless about this.

Something new to talk about! Innuendo! Both sides! Weiners!

yawn
posted by Existential Dread at 2:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

holy shit my t shirt question was linked in an election post

*slowly turns bright red from neck to hairline*

*runs out of room*
posted by medusa at 2:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

yeah it wasn't an expression of my own concern, CTodd gonna CTodd
posted by zutalors! at 2:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

If you're charged with investigating a possible crime, and you've gone through ten boxes of documents and you find nothing, and someone shows up with an eleventh box of documents, then that eleventh box of documents is probably pertinent to the investigation, and it's a good thing to take that seriously.

That is different from the general public looking at that and thinking, aha, clearly this eleventh box is going to contain the hard evidence of criminal activity, when the first ten yielded nothing.

The difference between these is probably why it is a bad idea for the FBI to go around announcing this sort of thing. But I'm not, honestly, feeling all that worried. Minor mistakes might get blown out of proportion, but Trump's in no position to exploit them right now. Major mistakes are things Clinton would already know about, and I have more faith in her ability to handle her own business than to think she ran for president on the assumption that some career-destroying secret would stay concealed.
posted by Sequence at 2:40 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

I so want to go out for Halloween dressed as Donald Trump. In an orange prison jumpsuit.

Given all the weird Hillary-for-prison memes out there, I don't think this is a good way to avoid conflict with strangers. Just saying you might not want to incite the crazies like this. Or maybe you do?
posted by rokusan at 2:40 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yeah, sorry, I meant to imply that Chuck Todd is looking for attention above all, not aspersions on your comment.
posted by Existential Dread at 2:41 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Anyone who has already believed that Hill did something wrong with the emails has long ago cast their lot as a Trump voter; anyone who was convinced by the Biily bush oppo has long ago decided to vote Clinton. There are few folks out there who don't yet know for whom they will cast a vote, if they bother to vote.
The tightness of this election remains in the ground game, and only the Dems have one. The polls' only purpose at this late date are to give the cable news something to talk about.
Go about your day, encouraging those around you to vote, canvassing, donating, calling, but don't panic. Vote if you haven't, but rest easy. It's been over since the third debate, and the only thing left to decide is how long her coattails will be.
posted by OHenryPacey at 2:42 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Josh Marshall has some thoughts on the Comey letter. Pretty reasoned, I think? I don't know, I'm overtired and should probably not be trying to understand.
posted by nubs at 2:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

I am reminded of [Comey's] unprofessional statements at the conclusion of the investigation this summer. He issued a statement that attacked Hillary, even while exonerating her.

I don't know, that seems a little front-loaded. Watching Comey's statements then (and looking at it again now) all I see is stereotypical angry cop who very much believes his suspect did something but can't quite prove it, and he is seething about that. I mean, it's a trope, you know?

He might be wrong on the facts (I don't know; you don't know... I mean he must know better than any of us, right?), but whatever it is, I didn't and still don't see intellectual dishonesty there. He just comes across as Cranky Cop who doesn't get his big career-defining arrest. Poor Cranky Cop.

Now, today, my best disinterested guess on why he might want to at least pretend to re-open the case just a little is that it might appease those agents in the FBI who are allegedly fuming and unhappy that the investigation derailed prematurely in the first place... assuming rumors of those agents are legit.

Either way, this is way too little way too late to impact the election. It might have collateral ramifications later, though.
posted by rokusan at 2:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

The focus remains on the emails and will always remain on the emails because someone desperately wants to prove that Hillary's Kibo Number is 1.

Though it's hard to say whether "it is 1" or "it is not 1" should be more disqualifying.
posted by delfin at 2:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Limbaugh: FBI Rekindled Email Investigation Just to Distract Attention From Wikileaks

So that's probably a bit of a bellwether about just how much "there" is there in all this meat on these bones.
posted by Drastic at 2:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [26 favorites]

The idea at least according to MSNBC is that the email thing will motivate Trump voters rather than swing undecideds to Trump. I think that has merit.
posted by zutalors! at 2:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Updates via tweets from Bradd Jaffy of NBC News, quoting Pete Williams about a half hour ago:

1) In looking at Weiner's laptop, investigators discovered Huma also used the laptop—which contained some Huma/Hillary emails

2) Investigators now have to look at those emails and decide whether there's classified info in them
posted by msalt at 2:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

First person arrested for trying to vote multiple times in this election is a Trump supporter.
posted by melissasaurus at 2:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [94 favorites]

Goddamn Anthony Weiner. I can't even.

He needs to go away.
posted by Justinian at 2:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

He is away. I don't know what else people want.
posted by zutalors! at 2:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

He needs to invent a time machine, go back in time, and remove himself from the timeline entirely. I am angry.
posted by Justinian at 2:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [56 favorites]

"Please stop talking about that caaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake!"
posted by FelliniBlank at 2:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

I really hope the government has created some sort of IT safety and organization course (or something) that all people and staff should take. The most frustrating part about this thing for me is that none of it seems to come from a place of malicious intent but just general cluelessness about good and safer digital practices.
posted by Jalliah at 2:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

Frowner: "I cannot even overstate how no one cares."

Twitter, Google, CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC all disagree with you.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&q=clinton%20fbi,trump%20women

Counterpoint:
Additional counterpoint:
posted by penduluum at 2:53 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

He needs to invent a time machine, go back in time, and remove himself from the timeline entirely. I am angry.

ok, fair enough
posted by zutalors! at 2:54 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

this is way too little way too late to impact the election.

I'm not sure if we're there yet, and this news really has nothing substantial to it yet that's negative, but there is definitely a window right before an election where turbulence and noise makes even the biggest scandal toothless.

The best exampled is in 2000, when the drunk driving conviction that George W. Bush had successfully hushed up was revealed just 4 days before the election. There just wasn't enough time for people to digest it, and unbelievably, his campaign staff managed to spin it as "Democratic dirty tricks" even though they couldn't really deny it was true.

TL/DR: dump your oppo now before it's too late, Hillary.
posted by msalt at 2:54 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

This is all such weak sauce. If this meant to damage Clinton in any way, I can't see how, except for the much-vaunted 'untrustworthy' accusation, which brings me to the point of this comment:

Untrustworthy? Seriously? So you'll vote for Donald Fucking Trump because Hillary Clinton is untrustworthy?

We have the fattest dossier ever of exaggerations, what-I-meants and 'misstatements', oopsies, and outright lies from this man going back nearly two decades, and the most we have from a candidate who has a long, and celebrated (by both D and R), career of public service is someone who ran a private email server because she fucked up, has apologized, and has made a concerted effort going forward to be more transparent, and yet that makes Trump more trustworthy? This is beyond nonsensical - this is asinine.

Ask all the people Trump has fucked over about his trustworthiness.
posted by eclectist at 2:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [29 favorites]

Republicans can ALWAYS deny that something is true.
posted by agregoli at 2:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Goddamn Anthony Weiner. I can't even.
He needs to go away.

"Anthony Weiner's continued existence seems like proof that the Clintons don't actually go around killing people who pose a risk to them." David A. Graham (@GrahamDavidA)
posted by The Bellman at 2:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [43 favorites]

Has anyone thought about making and distributing oh, about 300 million paper bags for the country to hyperventilate into?
posted by zarq at 2:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

My latest personal update on MeFites United phonebanking:

I had a great time calling voters in Indiana yesterday. I got a number of people who said they had voted already, and several others who were happy to confirm their plan to vote for Hillary on the 8th. I also had some great conversations calling Louisiana and Kentucky earlier in the week.

You know how everybody says "don't get complacent"? If you'd like to calm your nerves about the (barely) tightening polls, or just help confirm another likely voter or two, making calls from home is a great way to do it.

I, personally, will be complacent about Hillary for President in February 2025. In the meantime, I am ridiculously grateful that there's a way I can make calls on my schedule, without having to spend travel time getting to the campaign office, and do as much or as little as I feel like.

It feels really good to get involved. MeFites United welcomes you!
posted by kristi at 2:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [53 favorites]

Coming in late after seeing the "omg more emails bullshit" stuff, but for the record:
I went outside.
I turned around three times.
I spat.
I cursed.

Seems like we've had enough bad headlines in the last 24ish hours to merit such safety measures. Ugh.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

The problem for Trump is that even if there is something tangible in the Weiner e-mails, he's been barking about Clinton's e-mails for so long and so unpersuasively that people have stopped listening to anything he says about e-mails, and he's also been shown to be a compulsive, collossal liar: The Boy Who Cried Wolf...And Also Lied About, Like, Everything
posted by Flashman at 2:59 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

He needs to invent a time machine, go back in time, and remove himself from the timeline entirely. I am angry.

oowee have I got a Quantum Leap spec script to work on now
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:02 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

I don't ask for much but an appropriate lyric really shouldn't be too much to ask for

"As we dance to the Masochism Tango"
posted by happyroach at 3:03 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

Republicans can ALWAYS deny that something is true.

That's kinda their brand nowadays.
posted by Celsius1414 at 3:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Watching Comey's statements then (and looking at it again now) all I see is stereotypical angry cop who very much believes his suspect did something but can't quite prove it, and he is seething about that. [...]

He might be wrong on the facts (I don't know; you don't know... I mean he must know better than any of us, right?), but whatever it is, I didn't and still don't see intellectual dishonesty there.

Matthew Miller of the Washington Post disagrees. From a July 6th article:

When FBI Director James B. Comey stepped to the lectern to deliver his remarks about Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, he violated time-honored Justice Department practices for how such matters are to be handled, set a dangerous precedent for future investigations and committed a gross abuse of his own power.

Some have praised Comey’s remarks as much-needed truth-telling from a fearless, independent law-enforcement authority, an outcome Comey no doubt had in mind. But in fact, his willingness to reprimand publicly a figure against whom he believes there is no basis for criminal charges should trouble anyone who believes in the rule of law and fundamental principles of fairness.

posted by Atom Eyes at 3:06 PM on October 28, 2016 [102 favorites]

Where are all the other recordings of Trump making a fool of himself? Drop a new one now! There must be a hundred more out there. I thought the Democrats would be releasing these things weekly!
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:08 PM on October 28, 2016

Hillary's Kibo Number is 1.

Cool, just to attempt a derail, I must be a 1, I knew Jim briefly a number of years about, I know I gave him a ride home at least once, nice guy. Funny hobby.
posted by sammyo at 3:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Seriously, you people who are cursing after spitting, how are you not spraying leftover spit on yourself when you curse?

VOTE CURSE-THEN-SPIT 2016
posted by FelliniBlank at 3:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Matthew Miller has a 12-tweet chain starting here:

I wrote a piece in July on why Comey's public comments about Clinton were such an inappropriate abuse of power. 1/
He flagrantly violated DOJ rules with his press conference. Then went on to break new ground discussing details of the case to Congress...2/
Followed by quickly releasing FBI 302's, something they rarely do, and which I doubt they will do for future high-profile cases. 3/
Each time, he either violated or seriously stretched DOJ rule & precedent. Press conference was the original sin, & it begat the rest. 4/
But today's disclosure might be worst abuse yet. DOJ goes out of its way to avoid publicly discussing investigations close to election. 5/
Not just public discussion either. Often won't send subpoenas or take other steps that might leak until after an election is over...6/
Why? Because voters have no way to interpret FBI/DOJ activity in a neutral way. Who is the target of an investigation? What conduct? 7/
This might be totally benign & not even involve Clinton. But no way for press or voters to know that. Easy for opponent to make hay over. 8/
Which takes us back to the original rule: you don't comment on ongoing investigations. Then multiply that times ten close to an election. 9/
For whatever reason (& there are many theories), Comey continues to ignore that. But only for Clinton. 10/
FBI is undoubtedly investigating links between the Russian hack, Manafort, & the Trump campaign. But aren't commenting on it. Good! 11/
They shouldn't be commenting on investigations! But that should apply to all. Instead Clinton consistently treated differently/worse. 12/12

posted by Lexica at 3:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [116 favorites]

he is on this weird hand-wringing kick about how nasty and terrible things are going to be after Clinton is elected, because of how energized the Republicans will be and Fox News and so on...

Well, they will be nasty and terrible. Of course they will.

But so what? Someone has to be the Jackie Robinson here, putting up with mudslinging and hellish obstruction and the rest of the crap that will inevitably go along with being first.

Metaphor explained for non-baseball people, you heathens: Robinson didn't break baseball's color barrier because he was the best black baseball player of his time; he was chosen to break the barrier because he was seen as the toughest, and most likely to weather the hell due to whoever dared do it first. The stress wore him down fast, his career was short, but obviously extremely important. He cleared the way for the thousands of black players who followed, many of whom were younger, more talented, etc.

You need a tooth and nails sort of fighter to go first, because yes, it's going to be dirty all the way.
posted by rokusan at 3:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [70 favorites]

Where are all the other recordings of Trump making a fool of himself?

Suspense. They're embedded as sound files in the new e-mails [false].
posted by Namlit at 3:09 PM on October 28, 2016

I am also a Kibo Number 1 person.

Lock me up, I guess, for being old on the internet.
posted by rokusan at 3:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Where are all the other recordings of Trump making a fool of himself?

Suspense. They're embedded as sound files in the new e-mails [false]

That would be great if her hacked emails were just sound and video files of Trump talking offensive shit.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

like honestly i don't even care if the emails are a direct threat to me personally as an individual, like hillary saying yo we're gonna go to her house and touch all her stuff, we're gonna log on to psn and fuck up all her save games, we're gonna swap out all the lactaid milk for fartfilled milk lol lol
posted by poffin boffin at 3:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [50 favorites]

oh i guess if they fucked up my ovw competitive ranking i might think about going third party for like, 5 minutes
posted by poffin boffin at 3:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

People keep bringing up the Clinton power couple as evidence of American monarchy, which is unfair, but this FBI investigation being reinvigorated by a device belonging to Anthony Weiner, because he was married to Huma Abedin, is some American political aristocracy status.

I guess this year it's not just the Republicans who have turned politics into high-stakes reality TV.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Hey, so I'd love you to pass along some good vibes if you have them to spare.

I went and voted today (YAY), and it was a little depressing. The good stuff: the line was only about 25 minutes, and the election workers were very awesome. Some of them were walking the line outside the library, checking to make sure that everyone was in the right county and asking if anyone needed to come sit down in the shade (especially nice since it's sunny and in the upper 80s today) or fill out any paperwork. It was very efficient and friendly, so nice work on that end. Right now our county has the most votes of any in Texas, and I'm crossing my fingers for good things.

(Incidentally, thank you to everyone here who has served as a poll worker. You are very much appreciated.)

So that part was awesome. Still, I live in a very Republican suburb, and I missed out on the sense of celebration some of you have been reporting from the bluer areas. At our polling place the only people out to drum up support were for Republican candidates (including several people standing at the entrance of the parking lot waving "Trump" flags and playing recorded patriotic music, one of whom was dressed up like the Statue of Liberty, complete with fake torch).

So...yeah. But I pressed that goddamn button for Clinton/Kaine so hard and double-checked about eighteen times before casting my vote. It felt like a drop in the bucket, but hopefully all of these drops will become a flood.
posted by Salieri at 3:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [75 favorites]

Guys, there is really no reason to fear. At this point, she can't possibly lose this. At worst, she'll have a slightly less enormous margin of victory.
posted by corb at 3:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

For whatever reason (& there are many theories), Comey continues to ignore that. But only for Clinton. 10/

The "whatever reason" appears to be an extension of the "Clinton Rules" beyond journalism and into the halls of government. This would not appear to be a good thing for our democracy.

On the other hand, perhaps this will get President Clinton to abandon this practice of selecting members of the opposite party for important cabinet-level positions. It's not like she'd have to go outside the Democratic party to build a "team of rivals" if that's her thing.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

we're gonna swap out all the lactaid milk for fartfilled milk lol lol

It's all pictures of whole milk in various states of drunken.
posted by Celsius1414 at 3:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

When they go low, I get high.

I'm not proud of that
posted by mazola at 3:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [40 favorites]

Guys, there is really no reason to fear. At this point, she can't possibly lose this. At worst, she'll have a slightly less enormous margin of victory.

I agree that it's very likely that she doesn't lose this but saying it's not possible seems like tempting fate. Like when the captain of the Titanic said the days of sinking ships was over.
posted by Justinian at 3:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

This is all very entertaining, but yeah, there's a ton of early votes out already, no one who was on the fence about voting for Clinton will really be swayed by this. It's just more FUD on top of FUD. More empty hype.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:18 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Just what Jeb was saying for the first few primaries, "trump who?"
posted by sammyo at 3:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

As a counter thought to the Comey situation, consider this. Imagine if he sat on this information, and didn't reveal to Congress that there was potentially new evidence regarding Clinton's emails. Picture how Trump and the Republicans would have reacted to that reveal post-election, that the FBI hushed up the existence of potentially damning evidence that could have swayed the election. Everything is a conspiracy to them. Can you picture the howls of outrage that would be added to the piles of crap they're already going to foist on her first months in office?

So in a way it's better this bandage got ripped off now, so after she wins they can't point to this particular bit of theatre when they attack her.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

If we end up with Trump as President because Anthony Weiner has a compulsive need to share pictures of his dick, I am going to have so many words for the writers of this shitshow.
posted by zachlipton at 3:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [46 favorites]

Guys, there is really no reason to fear. At this point, she can't possibly lose this. At worst, she'll have a slightly less enormous margin of victory.

The greater the GOP voters believe the uselessness of voting, the higher the likelihood of Dems winning the senate, not to mention down ballet voting in general will be raised the greater her victory is.

We need the senate and as many house reps as we can win before H is demonized by the party of no and their hooplehead mad-dog contingent.
posted by uraniumwilly at 3:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Guys, there is really no reason to fear. At this point, she can't possibly lose this. At worst, she'll have a slightly less enormous margin of victory.

True, but when flipping the Senate (and, less likely but still slimly within the realm of possibility, the House) is less than a sure thing, surely we can allow ourselves a smidgen of reasonable and motivating fear?
posted by vverse23 at 3:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

Right, the most likely result of this leak is not Clinton losing but rather part of Trump's base being more motivated to vote, and thus making it more difficult to win close downballot races.
posted by Justinian at 3:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

Per Pete Williams (on MSNBC, video linked in tweet here), the FBI can't actually look at the emails until they get a new subpoena. So literally all they know is that they found a computer that Huma at some point used to send emails, likely to, among others, Hillary Clinton.

My first hope is that they find nothing. My second hope is that they find 33,000 emails about Chelsea's wedding.
posted by melissasaurus at 3:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [68 favorites]

Can you picture the howls of outrage that would be added to the piles of crap they're already going to foist on her first months in office?

Not that their howls of outrage need any connection to actual events, but even if they did, they have enough of a reservoir of bullshit scandals to keep their investigations going for at least the duration of her first term. It's hard to believe this particular wrinkle in emailgate would make much of a difference.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

So in a way it's better this bandage got ripped off now, so after she wins they can't point to this particular bit of theatre when they attack her.

Sure. I understand why Comey felt it necessary to notify Congress, because the whole FBI would be under attack for "why didn't you tell us?" if something came out later. But this situation where he releases an utterly cryptic statement with world-changing implications, a statement practically begging to be misread, and then sources leak the background on all this to Pete Williams is completely inappropriate. Lob a live grenade into the final 11 days of an election, say nothing when people ask "what the hell are you doing?", but make Pete Williams your anger translator is not an acceptable way for the FBI to conduct business.
posted by zachlipton at 3:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [46 favorites]

So...yeah. But I pressed that goddamn button for Clinton/Kaine so hard and double-checked about eighteen times before casting my vote. It felt like a drop in the bucket, but hopefully all of these drops will become a flood.

Courage, Salieri. You're there fighting the good fight.

With regard to the blue-ing of Texas—
It might not happen this year (although it might!), but everybody knows (TX Republicans most of all) that it will eventually happen, sooner rather than later, and when it does there's no turning back the clock.

Now just imagine how it will make you feel when the tide inevitably turns—the blanket of joy and happiness that will envelop and warm you on that day—and let the anticipation of that feeling sustain and strengthen you.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

When it said Trump has a huge lead, I wondered if it were Dixon or Ticonderoga?
posted by Oyéah at 3:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh, god- just let it be over.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 3:31 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

If we end up with Trump as President because Anthony Weiner has a compulsive need to share pictures of his dick, I am going to have so many words for the writers of this shitshow.

I'd really like The United States to end better than Dexter.
posted by condour75 at 3:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [16 favorites]

He needs to go away.

Not just him, but this whole election cycle has been way too dominated by politicians, former politicians, and general celebrities from or representing New York. And New Jersey for that matter. Cory Booker aside, can we have a moratorium on NY/NJ bigwigs in the next election, please
posted by Apocryphon at 3:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Where are all the other recordings of Trump making a fool of himself? Drop a new one now! There must be a hundred more out there. I thought the Democrats would be releasing these things weekly!

there's one linked upthread of him being absolutely gross and horrible to a woman who he felt slighted him; at the end of it he goes in for a surprise kiss that she seems not very okay with. but "Trump assaults woman" is firmly in dog bites man territory now so needless to say it mostly went unremarked-upon
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:33 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Because I love you metafilter:

[Intro: Thomas Jefferson, (Ensemble)]
The Election of 2016!
Can we get back to politics?
Please?
Yo…

[Verse 1: Hillary]
Every action has its equal opposite reaction
Mr. Trump shat the bed; I hate the guy, but he’s in traction
Poor the People of America, they're is missing in action
So now I’m facing Mr Trump with his own faction

[Huff Po]
She's very attractive in the North, New Yorkers like her chances

[HILLARY]
He’s not very forthcoming on any particular stances

[MSNBC]
Ask him a question, it glances off, he obfuscates, he dances

[HILLARY]
And they say I share classified, at least they know I know what tech is

[Michelle]
Madame, that’s the problem; see, they see Trump as a less extreme you
You need to change course, a key endorsement might redeem you

[Hillary]
Who did you have in mind?

[MICHELLE]
Don’t laugh
posted by AlexiaSky at 3:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

A Republican strategist on With All Due Respect: "KellyAnne should hood Trump like a falcon and let this play out."
posted by xyzzy at 3:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'd really like The United States to end better than Dexter.

C'mon, it won't be that bad. Tell you what, let's go to your favorite diner and get some onion rings. I'll even put your favorite Journey song on the jukebox
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [31 favorites]

Oy Vey.

Can't remember the last time I bothered watching primetime network news, but just flipped through and CBS, NBC and ABC are all playing this email shit to the hilt. All three had the EXACT same caption "Breaking News FBI Bombshell", "Clinton Campaign caught off guard" . . .

Jockeys, take out your whips . . .
posted by jeremias at 3:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

She's very attractive in the North, New Yorkers like her chances

Then go and re-form the Free City of Tri-Insula, why don't ya!
posted by Apocryphon at 3:37 PM on October 28, 2016

So, wait, this Anthony Weiner nothingness is somebody tinkering with the narrative, right, setting up shit to bleed and entertain the masses.

Yes I am watching Westworld.
posted by angrycat at 3:37 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

A conservative friend of mine is just beyond overjoyed by this Comey announcement and is certain that this will be the end of her. As a narrative device in a two hour thriller this would indeed be a juicy development, but as has been pointed out very astutely upthread, this has nothingburger stamped all over it. I tried to make the case to him, but he admitted that he's enjoying his fantasy too much to pay me any mind. I suppose we're just waving to each other from across the chasm at this point. The Divided States of America indeed.
posted by vverse23 at 3:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

Worst Non-Conservative Opinion Piece of the Week

The odd sound you just heard was the corpse of David Broder issuing a sepulchral groan of pleasure after reading this godawful opinion piece by Catherine Rampell of The Washington Post: [...]

I guess there are some Democrats who fit Rampell's stereotype -- who think the GOP is about to be crushed into dust, and who are thrilled at the prospect. I suppose I'd be delighted -- if I thought it was going to happen. But Republicans will almost certainly hold the House (and I'm more furious than happy when I learn that, once again, this might happen even if more voters overall choose Democratic House candidates). Republicans may also hold the Senate, and, of course, some polls show the presidential race tightening.

But even if Democrats score a big victory, who seriously believes Republicans are "paralyzed with dysfunction"? They're fighting one another now, but as soon as the election is over, they're going to go back to their usual scorched-earth campaign against Democratic governance. And we're supposed to be happy that "the GOP base is drifting further and further into crazyland"? Catherine, those people have guns.

[...]

So this horrific liberal agenda can't even be enacted, but Democrats are bad just for thinking about it. Just conceiving of a liberal agenda is as bad for Democrats as putting in place a genuinely terrible agenda was for Republicans:
Kansas has provided a useful illustration of what happens when (in this case, conservative) ideologues get their policy wish lists, because they’ve written off any objections from skeptics as unserious or motivated by ill intent. With the Republican Party’s wholesale intellectual implosion, we may see the same temptations take hold on the left.
No, we won't, for three reasons: Democrats are willing to compromise on most issues (even when no Republican will compromise back); Democratic ideas are not remotely as awful as Republican issues; and Republicans will block most of the Democratic agenda anyway, because their intransigence doesn't require intellectual underpinnings.

posted by tonycpsu at 3:41 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

There is a guy on the corner immediately next to my office right now with a megaphone. The only words I can make out are "Hillary", "emails", "Podesta", and "devil", but I think it's safe to say he's not voting for her. You should be proud that I successfully resisted the urge to kick him in the shin and run.

Or possibly disappointed. Not sure.
posted by skycrashesdown at 3:41 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

A moment of levity: The guy that wrote this Bloomberg piece tells Ana Marie Cox that the Trump campaign has two autopens signing MAGA hats all day long.

I hope at least one person in the Trump campaign dies and gets reincarnated as a hat-signing autopen.
posted by zeusianfog at 3:42 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

On the other hand, perhaps this will get President Clinton to abandon this practice of selecting members of the opposite party for important cabinet-level positions.

Time to break out the really nice tin-foil hats, the ones you use for guests: Maybe Comey is poisoning the well so that Clinton can't fire him without it looking like payback for being a thorn in her side during the election.

(I highly, highly doubt this is the case. But if this were Scandal or something, that would totally be the play.)
posted by tobascodagama at 3:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

I hope at least one person in the Trump campaign dies and gets reincarnated as a hat-signing autopen.

I hope Giuliani comes back as a Sharpie owned by a 4chan user
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [50 favorites]

there's one [video] linked upthread of him being absolutely gross and horrible to a woman who he felt slighted him; at the end of it he goes in for a surprise kiss that she seems not very okay with. but "Trump assaults woman" is firmly in dog bites man territory now so needless to say it mostly went unremarked-upon

Videos are different, and I would encourage people to share this on Facebook, Twitter, etc.
Especially with sexual allegations, supporters grab onto any shred of deniability, and all of the previous 12 are he said/she said situations that Trump has denied.

Video is devastating because it's right there, undeniable. Even if no genitals were grabbed, I think this (and any video) is 100x more powerful. You can see Trump being that grabby coercive guy.
posted by msalt at 3:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

If Comey had no choice but to provide the congressional chairs with this update to his testimony, he could have and I think should have gone about it quite differently. The email is quite cryptic. Law enforcement always wants to be circumspect and hedged. Indeed, it is the normal policy of the FBI not to discuss anything about an investigation unless there's an indictment. But in this case, Comey has made a totally open-ended statement which is open to a maximal interpretation even though the actual import seems to be quite a bit more minimal. Is Comey doing this because he's a Republican and wants Trump to win? Again, that's just not my read of the guy, though I could certainly be wrong.

But if you're going to depart so dramatically from normal procedure, you can't do it in some ways and not others. In this case, he owes the public and the country a clearer read about whether this new information is simply another batch of emails to review or whether this is a real reason to believe it may change the outcome of the investigation. Normally, no FBI director of prosecutor would get into anything like that. But again, not a normal situation.

posted by tonycpsu at 3:51 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

OK, whichever one of you is holding the Trump tax files, Monday would be a good day to drop them, m'kay?
posted by madamjujujive at 3:54 PM on October 28, 2016 [16 favorites]

Just now on PBS Newshour, both Shields and Brooks thought the emails are a very serious problem that might result in a few improved percentage points for Trump, a loss of momentum for the Dems, and the possibility of losing the Senate fight. The interviewer, Judy Woodruff, spent 90% of the time of the weekly political wrap on this issue and then jumped to the world series.
posted by uraniumwilly at 3:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

They found something on Weiner's phone and Comey decided to make a very tenuous link to the Clinton FBI investigation.

I'm hoping for a short-ribs recipe. Podesta's emails were illuminating but man does not live on risotto alone.
posted by jackbishop at 3:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

I actually have faith in HRC myself. I think it was boneheaded to try to protect her privacy by routing emails through her private server, but as Comey himself said, at worst that was reckless. I just don't expect anything at all to come of this latest stash of emails. I also think that this election has been notable for ridiculous hyping of every story, followed by quick media forgetfulness of even the most significant (Trump sexual assaults, Trump frauds, Trump open racism, Trump promoting violence, Trump threatening jail for political opponents and denying the validity of our election system and so forth.)

I also have faith that the people who decide elections, the great middle, won't see this "bombshell" as anything that should move their vote one way or another. There just isn't anything there right now, and I for one don't think there ever will be.
posted by bearwife at 3:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

via playwright John Patrick Shanley: If this election doesn't come soon, we should all just check into a monastery. It's a wrenching, heaving mess, terrorizing the population. (real)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:02 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Clinton press conference incoming.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:02 PM on October 28, 2016

I hope Giuliani comes back as a Sharpie owned by a 4chan user

I was thinking fleshlight, but okay.
posted by Behemoth at 4:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

Spoiler: Clinton to attend press conference wearing mirrored sunglasses and answering all questions with "I'm too drunk to remember."
posted by delfin at 4:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

Clinton is being badass, telling people to go vote and demanding Comey tell her what the problem is, if there is any problem to be had.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [50 favorites]

Shorter Hillary: Put up or shut up, James.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [52 favorites]

A Republican strategist on With All Due Respect: "KellyAnne should hood Trump like a falcon and let this play out."

Wow. With all the trouble he's been causing them, at least one Republican has no idea how Trump works.
posted by Halloween Jack at 4:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Here's Clinton's press conference.
posted by zachlipton at 4:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Indigenous Youth Occupy Hillary Clinton Campaign Headquarters to Demand She Take Stand on #DAPL
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [29 favorites]

I know you worked super hard on this thread and it's chock full of links, for which I thank you, but there's no Hamilton title and I'm having a really bad day and this makes me extra sad and I'm just having a hard time dealing with this all and I don't ask for much but an appropriate lyric really shouldn't be too much to ask for because I'm just trying to cope here that's all.

This thread needs more hamilcrap like Hamilton needs another hole in the head
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [31 favorites]

Some election humor from us in MST3K Club.
posted by JHarris at 4:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

A few comments removed, please be sure to reload. ugly, I've given you about as much warning as I know how; at this point, it's a day off, because I can't keep coming back to this thread and cleaning up another round of digging in.
posted by cortex (staff) at 4:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [27 favorites]

This thread needs more hamilcrap like Hamilton needs another hole in the head

Too soon!
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 4:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

So what happened with Trump and the stairs and the plane?!? Inquiring minds need to know!
posted by easily confused at 4:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

This thread needs more hamilcrap like Hamilton needs another hole in the head

We're non-stop.

And he was shot in the lower abdomen.
posted by zachlipton at 4:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [57 favorites]

Seriously, you people who are cursing after spitting, how are you not spraying leftover spit on yourself when you curse?

VOTE CURSE-THEN-SPIT 2016

You're allowed a mouth wipe between the spitting and cursing. DON'T FUCKING CHANGE THE ORDER! WRATH! ATOP! THING!
posted by numaner at 4:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

Civil Rights Groups and Officials Are Worried About Violence at the Polls. Here's what they're doing about it.
posted by homunculus at 4:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

That was a good presser. She's right. Tell us what you are talking about, Comey. Voters are entitled to know.
posted by bearwife at 4:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

When they go low, I get high.

I'm not proud of that
posted by mazola

It's not at all a unique thought, so be proud of it all you want. My friend runs the "High On Hillary" blog - on Facebook as well.
posted by agregoli at 4:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

I love the 'come at me bro' attitude. She knows it's a nothingburger.
posted by chris24 at 4:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

So what happened with Trump and the stairs and the plane?!? Inquiring minds need to know!

Per @AdvanceGuyNotes, that "happens more than you'd expect." I do wish we had footage of him going down an evacuation slide in glee over Comey's letter though.
posted by zachlipton at 4:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

-Texan, Voted
posted by svenvog at 4:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

HuffPost making their opinion clear on the homepage.

WTF FBI
posted by chris24 at 4:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'm still stressed and kinda crazy about the election, but it's just a little less intense since i voted yesterday. Early voting remains the best, and I feel so lucky to be able to do it. And even with the line, it was nice to see so many different people eager to vote the first day. Yay, democracy!
posted by Akhu at 4:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Yeah, shopping lists and little odd details. Howie Carr, who is a first rate asshole, was crowing about an email from Huma to Podesta that used the phrase "sober her up" in reference to HRC, and it was clear Huma meant "talk her off the ledge" about some finer point of policy or strat. You know, advise her. But Carr and his fans (forgive me I have been tuning in right wing radio in the car to feast on the sadness and conspiracy ideas) are sure it means she started boozing at noon.

Steady my friends, this is tempest in teapot.
posted by vrakatar at 4:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Guys, I think she was amazingly presidential at her conference. Take a few deep breaths.
posted by annsunny at 4:24 PM on October 28, 2016

God. Billy Bush and Anthony Wiener. I'm in a coma right? This can not possibly be real life-- it is just too insane. This will go down in those informal wacky history books as a "Didja know?" side section. " Didja know that the election of the first Woman President in the USA involved people named Bush and Weiner?!"
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [30 favorites]

Just watched the press conference. I think Director Comey can go ahead and pencil in an Oval Office meeting on January 23rd for a frank exchange of ideas.
Inauguration Day's on a Friday.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [30 favorites]

I really hope the government has created some sort of IT safety and organization course (or something) that all people and staff should take.

There is rigorous, mandatory training for military, government, and contractors. It covers email, acceptable use, various common attacks like spear-fishing.

As far as running email servers - there are detailed guidelines from DISA on minimal security implementations - Standard Technical Implementation Guides (STIG). Also, there are a ton of additional instructions at each agency.

Trying to support an unapproved mobile device (hrc's blackberry) - mobile devices have there own security requirements - by end-running all of that is pretty brazen, and there is no way anyone involved did not know how sketchy it was.

That it even got to the point of 'was any of it classified?' is really miles beyond. But, it seems like the laxness is an intentional part of the culture - easy for executives to ignore and hard for juniors to enforce. This is evident from Powell and Rice commentary.

It's the culture. For executives, convenience outweighs IA guidance. Same as everywhere.
posted by j_curiouser at 4:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

This can not possibly be real life

It's just a fantasy. And Trump will be caught in a landslide with no escape from reality.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [49 favorites]

@ABCPolitics
NEW: White House was informed of FBI Director's letter to Congress on Clinton email investigation through media reports @alex_mallin
posted by chris24 at 4:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [19 favorites]

Federal Appeals Court Says Michigan “Ballot Selfie” Ban Will Stay In Effect For Now
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

> Indigenous Youth Occupy Hillary Clinton Campaign Headquarters to Demand She Take Stand on #DAPL

'What a Crock': Clinton Breaks DAPL Silence With Statement That Says 'Literally Nothing'. Response comes the same day militarized police forcibly cleared hundreds of water protectors from protest site
posted by homunculus at 4:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

NEW: White House was informed of FBI Director's letter to Congress on Clinton email investigation through media reports @alex_mallin

Jesus. Comey should be removed from office immediately, for his amazing lack of transparency and accountability. This is just unacceptable.
posted by Existential Dread at 4:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [38 favorites]

And other Republicans are still trying to run for the 'most brainless' title:

Never heard of him before now.

From what I can gather, he sounds like the kind of Republican most mefites could actually stand. (And also an Iraq war vet who is understandably interested in veteran affairs.)

Apparently Ms Duckworth before heading to congress had some problems as Director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs under Blagovich. Ironically, she credits her decision ot get into public service to fellow wounded war vet - Robert Dole.

Tangled thing, politics. Everyone has their ups and downs.
posted by IndigoJones at 4:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

It's just a fantasy. And Trump will be caught in a landslide with no escape from reality.

I see a little fingered yahoo of a man

SCARAMOUCHE
SCARAMOUCHE
DID YOU EMAIL FANDANGO
posted by delfin at 4:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [42 favorites]

Such a douche
Such a douche
With the complexion of a mango
posted by tonycpsu at 4:32 PM on October 28, 2016 [118 favorites]

Will any future administration or campaign ever use email again?

Yes -- with end-to-end encryption.
posted by Coventry at 4:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Aaaah, enough with the singing already.
posted by vrakatar at 4:35 PM on October 28, 2016

And also an Iraq war vet

Yeah, about that...
posted by tonycpsu at 4:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

And also an Iraq war vet who is understandably interested in veteran affairs.

As mentioned above, Kirk has ~~embellished~~ lied about his military service record multiple times.
posted by zakur at 4:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

would the FBI be allowed to search indiscriminantly through Abedin's email in an investigation of Weiner?

If the email is on any device they were allowed to seize, then yes. Just like any evidence regarding an unrelated case is fair game if it's found while executing a valid search warrant.
posted by Coventry at 4:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Fuck yeah. I know Reid said he'd laid the groundwork, but Schumer seemed iffy.

Tim Kaine: Democrats Will Nuke Filibuster For Supreme Court Nominees If GOP Won’t Cooperate
posted by chris24 at 4:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [25 favorites]

Can the FBI Sway an Election?

In other words, Comey faces an impossible choice. If he refused to tell Congress, officials could claim he knowingly withheld information that was important to the American people. But in disclosing the investigation, he’s potentially shaping the outcome of the election; it’s unclear how the public will interpret the announcement, but the stock market has already taken a dive. As Benjamin Wittes argued on the website Lawfare, “Comey and the FBI are in a terrible position here, one in which they would be accused of playing politics whatever they ended up doing.”

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Reps. Cummings and Conyers Request Full Disclosure from DOJ and FBI on Email Investigation [tweet w/ image of letter they sent to FBI]
posted by melissasaurus at 4:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

they would be accused of playing politics whatever they ended up doing

If he feels he must disclose this to Congress, which I won't dispute, it's how he did it that's the issue, not the disclosure.
a) Didn't notify the White House
b) Allowed Chaffetz to release it to the press and inaccurately frame the coverage
c) Phrased the letter in a seemingly deliberate way to imply wrongdoing
d) Withheld mitigating info that they later leaked to the press.
posted by chris24 at 4:44 PM on October 28, 2016 [66 favorites]

I live in Oregon, where we vote exclusively by mail. I filled out my ballot a few days ago, blackening the spot next to Clinton/Kaine so completely that no light will ever escape its grasp. I found myself longing for a pen that dispensed Vantablack, but made due with an uncommonly dark ballpoint. I then dropped my ballot off at the official county election office's box, and stood there for several seconds, waiting for....what? I don't know. A little brass band to start playing a happy tune from inside the box, maybe, or cheers from the middle distance.

Man, the nation needs a fricken break, and I, a large adult beverage.
posted by but no cigar at 4:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [68 favorites]

By the way, the new tape with Trump humiliating and groping Miss Australia on stage might not get much traction, as it has poor video/audio quality and a very long set-up, but in my opinion it's even worse than the Billy Bush tape.

Not only does he humiliate and basically assault the woman in front of a full audience of onlookers because of some imagined slight to his ego, but he does so after very calmly and deliberately explaining to the audience exactly what it is he's about to do. And then calling (ordering, really) her to come up to the stage so that he can enact her "punishment". It is loathsome. It is pathological.

And in a sane election, it would almost certainly be a campaign killer. But this fucking year....
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [93 favorites]

Police state indeed
posted by Apocryphon at 4:46 PM on October 28, 2016

I suspect that "chance of winning" in 538's model is an oversimplification of what those odds mean in Monte Carlo statistics

The probability they're giving has a precise mathematical definition, but not much relationship to reality. It's not quite useless, but it's close. An honest treatment would involve a probability distribution over the probability of winning, and a wide range of probabilities would be roughly equally plausible under that distribution. Even that distribution would be unrealistic, as it would only incorporate uncertainty which the model explicitly represents. But compared to a single number all that would be hard to explain to people.
posted by Coventry at 4:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Hillary does herself no favors when she states that only Republican legislators got this update from Comey. Just stop with the persecution complex already, no matter how accurate it may be. It just makes her look vindictive and defensive.
posted by xyzzy at 4:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

"i'm just an orange nobody loves me"

"he's just an orange from north new jersey
spare him this loss of the presidency"
posted by pyramid termite at 4:53 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

John Fugelsang on FB: Can Anthony Weiner please send a dick pic to the Standing Rock protests so our mainstream media can start covering it?
posted by TwoStride at 4:54 PM on October 28, 2016 [102 favorites]

The FBI needs a new headquarters, and I'm pretty sure that the search for a suitable piece of real estate just shifted from Prince George's County, MD to Alaska.
posted by schmod at 4:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Just stop with the persecution complex already, no matter how accurate it may be. It just makes her look vindictive and defensive.

Buh?
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

@TVietor08
The FBI is teaching us all an important lesson about protecting sensitive info by putting out their letter and then leaking all the details
posted by chris24 at 4:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [33 favorites]

It just makes her look vindictive

Vindictiveness is in the eye of the beholder.
posted by melissasaurus at 4:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

the worst part is that when clinton wins, we're going to have 4 more goddamned years of this goddamned shit at a time when our country is going to be faced with some very serious situations and decisions
posted by pyramid termite at 4:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

Hillary does herself no favors when she states that only Republican legislators got this update from Comey. Just stop with the persecution complex already, no matter how accurate it may be. It just makes her look vindictive and defensive.

On the contrary, if it's true, it seems fairly damning.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [38 favorites]

It's not vindictive and defensive IF IT'S TRUE.
posted by oneswellfoop at 5:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

Just stop with the persecution complex already, no matter how accurate it may be.

"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you."
posted by tonycpsu at 5:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

I think it might have been a simple mistake. It looks like the letter had the Republicans listed on the first page and Democrats on a second page. The crazy thing is how much importance everyone is giving to this one detail. "Hillary Lied!!!" is what I'm seeing reporters saying about her press conference.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:02 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Good on the native protesters that want Hillary to stand with them or, at least quit, with the fog machine.

Just... Let them stand.
posted by RolandOfEld at 5:03 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

So Rubio came after Murphy based on this:

"Since the FBI announced they were re-opening an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of her private server, Patrick Murphy will need to let Floridians know if he still trusts Hillary Clinton 100 percent, as he has said in the past."

Murphy came right back:

Murphy spox: "Patrick trusts Hillary Clinton with the nuclear codes, which is more than Marco Rubio can say about his preferred candidate."

posted by chris24 at 5:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [75 favorites]

This copy of the letter has a second page that seems to indicate that it was sent to Diane Feinstein at least. It's possible that it was addressed to the committee chairs (Republicans) and sent to their Democratic counterparts as well.
posted by zachlipton at 5:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Nerdwriter: Facebook Could Reveal Your Voting Record

Title is confusing until you finish it. We use some of the techniques mentioned, particularly getting people to declare a particular date and time to volunteer.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Mom yelling at her son for (jokingly) saying that he's not voting for Hillary

This is what I needed today.
posted by acidic at 5:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

I've lurked in just about every election thread thus far, and have thought repeatedly that I'd drop in to share my appreciation for all of my fellow MeFites here—these threads are my primary source of election coverage, with all other spigots more or less turned off, in the interests of maintaining my sanity.

I came into this one because I really needed you guys today. The FBI story set me off spinning, until I thought, "I need to go to Metafilter right now and get some perspective." And my blood pressure dropped after five minutes of measured commentary on the Blue.

I'll never get through all of these threads, and my contributions are likely to be minimal. But it doesn't change the fact that they've been hugely (I'm serious, so I'm not going there) impactful to me, as an antidote to the most insane election cycle of my entire life.

Thank you all, from the bottom of my heart.
posted by Brak at 5:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [124 favorites]

It's not vindictive and defensive IF IT'S TRUE.

Literally it was cc'ed to Elijah Cummings and Diane Feinstein.
posted by xyzzy at 5:06 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jack Tapper made the quip that this proves if you see a gun in the first act it goes off in the third. And by gun he meant dick pic.
posted by humanfont at 5:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

HI YOUR NAME IS BRAK!
posted by vrakatar at 5:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

and that dick pic grew up to be Albert Einstein
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 5:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

Literally it was cc'ed to Elijah Cummings and Diane Feinstein.

Literally the ccs on the second page weren't shown until Frank Thorp posted that tweet. Customarily letters to committee chairs would go to the ranking minority members, but since she's in the dark, how was she to know?
posted by holgate at 5:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

weiner is in the dark - he is likely to be eaten by a grue
posted by pyramid termite at 5:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

An honest treatment would involve a probability distribution over the probability of winning, and a wide range of probabilities would be roughly equally plausible under that distribution. Even that distribution would be unrealistic, as it would only incorporate uncertainty which the model explicitly represents. But compared to a single number all that would be hard to explain to people.

Many of these words do appear in a statistics textbook.
posted by one_bean at 5:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

Some early voting updates:

@Redistrict
About 17.9 million Americans have already voted, per @ElectProject. That's ~13% of expected electorate. http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

@Redistrict
However, none of the counts updated for today or ballots currently in the mail. True total likely closer to 20% of total electorate.

@ShaneGoldmacher
About 25-30% of the expected electorate in Florida has already voted
posted by chris24 at 5:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

The probability they're giving has a precise mathematical definition, but not much relationship to reality. It's not quite useless, but it's close. An honest treatment would involve a probability distribution over the probability of winning, and a wide range of probabilities would be roughly equally plausible under that distribution.

It's super simple. Clinton having an 85\% (or whatever, I'm not looking) probability of winning means that they simulated a shitload of elections using state and national polling, assumptions about correlations between states, and maybe some basic electoral fundamentals, and Clinton won 85\% of those simulated elections.

Unless they've changed recently, 538 actually shows you either a histogram or kernel density of the simulated outcomes.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 5:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Literally the ccs on the second page weren't shown until Frank Thorp posted that tweet.

I read Politico's transcript posted 5 hours ago, which included the ccs on page two.
posted by xyzzy at 5:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

About 25-30% of the expected electorate in Florida has already voted

My (safely blue) state is tracking to be about 40% early voting.

They're going to have to rebrand it "September Surprise."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:18 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

November 9th is going to be a stressful day for Comey. Hope he enjoys Alaska.
posted by Yowser at 5:19 PM on October 28, 2016

Well, this settles it. I won't vote for Comey or Weiner.
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

It just makes her look vindictive

Just looking vindictive, hell. All goes well, come 1/21 I kinda want her to be vindictive. I mean, I'm not proud of it, but I kinda want her to go all Hillsa: She-Wolf of the DNC.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 5:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [48 favorites]

I can't help but think that Comey's resignation letter is going to be on either the AG's or HRC's desk by February. This shit will not abide. Nasty women get it done.
posted by Ber at 5:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

This thread needs more hamilcrap like Hamilton needs another hole in the head

We're non-stop.

♫U know there ain't no other♫
posted by fuse theorem at 5:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Goddammit, I hate this fucking election, not least of reasons that it is ruining the most wonderful time of the year. 🎃
posted by Sophie1 at 5:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [16 favorites]

In other news, I am hoping that Clinton starts her first term as "give no fucks" Clinton instead of waiting until she's 7.5 years into her terms. That's my fan fiction moment. No fucks from day one.
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [96 favorites]

So here's a weird question: why did the FBI not look at Huma Abedin's emails as part of their original investigation into the Clinton emails? Surely, if you're investigating improper emails, and some of them have been deleted from the server, you'd want to check out the likely recipients of those emails to see if they still have copies, right?

Because they now have a reason to get access to Huma's personal devices -- they're looking at every device Anthony Weiner might have used. Huma would sometimes forward emails to her personal email account so that she could print them out for HRC more easily. (And this was ok! You're allowed to use your personal email address, and all of these emails would have been expected to be FOIA-able!) So what they're likely to find is... copies of emails they already have. Really boring ones, most likely.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 5:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Goddammit, I hate this fucking election, not least of reasons that it is ruining the most wonderful time of the year. 🎃

Amen to that. Halloween deserves better than the horror show we got.
posted by tobascodagama at 5:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Tim Kaine: Democrats Will Nuke Filibuster For Supreme Court Nominees If GOP Won’t Cooperate

While drinking a beer.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Jesus. Comey should be removed from office immediately, for his amazing lack of transparency and accountability. This is just unacceptable.

I cannot see any downside or fallout from a Democratic president removing the head of the FBI 11 days before an election on a day when said director of the FBI sent a letter to Congress saying the FBI had found more information that may or may not be relevant to a previous investigation. Removing him would clearly be a win-win!
posted by Justinian at 5:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Tim Kaine: Democrats Will Nuke Filibuster For Supreme Court Nominees If GOP Won’t Cooperate

It's the 'if' that worries me. Why are we trusting these people for a moment? Take them at their word: They're actively trying to destroy government, and I see no reason to believe they won't just claim they'll cooperate and then fail to.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 5:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Amen to that. Halloween deserves better than the horror show we got.

It's not Phantasm, but it's pretty terrifying.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Yesterday I was deep in the heart of deep red Mississippi, working with two of the most deeply red conservative voters I know. They have both contributed heavily to hard right causes and neither has ever voted for a Democrat at any point in their lives. So after we concluded businesses, at lunch over sandwiches one of them leaned forward knowing I was their secret window into the dark world of liberal thought, and asked, "Okay, so why would it be a bad idea to vote for Trump?"

So I leaned in to things I figured they would take seriously. He's a terrible businessman, he managed to bankrupt with a casino empire which is like going bankrupt running the fucking mint, he has fucked over every business partner he's ever had and people from the caterer of his daughter's wedding to princes in Saudi Arabia say he has no honor and simply lives to steal what he can. And the ghostwriter of The Art of the Deal says he has no attention span, no desire or capacity to learn, is a pathological liar, cheat, and fraud, and does not seem to care that other people have feelings.

"What concerns us," my other coworker said, "is that he seems completely ignorant of Christianity."

Well, I went on, that's because he is. He wasn't raised to believe, and has no inclination to now. He is no more Christian than Chairman Mao, and he never will be since he only says what he thinks he needs to to schmooze people but has no interest in in learning or studying anything new, and no inclination at all toward humility.

Solemn nods...! "I find it very hard to vote for someone who has no belief in Christ at all."

You just said that to an atheist, I said with a bit of a grin.

And this was when I realized what was going on. "Oh no, I really think you're an agnostic, whether you admit it or not," I was told. Infuriating as it was I realized that this was really a "you will know them by their works" moment. They know that for all my D-voting flaws I am a stand up guy they can rely on when work needs to be done to do it competently and honestly and without causing problems. They do not see this about Trump. They see Trump as the empty vessel he is, drifting and unreliable and claiming a faith he clearly doesn't even slightly understand, obviously because he wants to schmooze them. And they aren't buying it.

"But the alternative is Hillary, and she's so crooked," he went on. "I don't think the country will survive her."

The Clintons are career politicians, I said, and you don't have a successful career at that unless you accumulate a pile of skeletons in your closet. They are really no worse than anyone else and Hillary will do just fine. You may not agree with everything just as I didn't agree with a lot of what George W did, as you know, but there will be a USA when she goes. I'm less sure of that with Trump because he is exactly the kind of narcissistic never-grown-up six year old who might really start a nuclear war in a fit of pique.

I'm pretty sure they won't be able to make themselves punch the ticket for Hillary, but I got a strong impression they were seriously considering leaving the Presidential race blank. And if these guys are thinking like this, a lot of supposedly reliable R's are thinking it. And what's more I don't think they would admit it either to any of their other deep red R friends or to a pollster. They could only tell me because they knew I would not shame them for being less than 100% on board with their ticket.
posted by Bringer Tom at 5:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [154 favorites]

Justinian: I cannot see any downside or fallout from a Democratic president removing the head of the FBI 11 days before an election on a day when said director of the FBI sent a letter to Congress saying the FBI had found more information that may or may not be relevant to a previous investigation. Removing him would clearly be a win-win!

The people who would be angry would mostly be people who were always suspicious and hostile of the Obama and Clinton. Kicking him out immediately while being very public about the reason (attempting to influence the election) can be taken as corrupt... but can also be taken as evidence that his behavior was completely outside the norm and unacceptable. I don't know how much damage it would do, but I doubt it could do more than leaving him in.

In any case, his ass and any upper-tiers that support him should be out the door on Nov. 9th. It looks cleaner if done after the election, but before Clinton is in charge.
posted by Mitrovarr at 5:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

All of this unconfirmed, obviously, but apparently a guy on a flight out of Reagan International today was next to an FBI guy ranting on the phone about Comey and the letters. If true, it's insight into the power struggle within the FBI. Start reading here or I'll dethread it here:

Jeremy Dickey
‏@JeremyDDickey

@FBI official on my plane openly saying how crazy Comey's letter was.

Update he now is talking about how the NY FBI office pressed to have the A. Weiner info leaked

He's now saying that the NY @FBI office and DC office are openly feuding due to the #EricGarner case takeover

Same @FBI official says it's reckless and crazy to have released this letter now but it ultimately shows the inner agency struggle

He ended the conversation with saying "it doesn't matter Clinton will win and Comey needs to be out"

He just called someone else to vent about the letter–now saying that he's shocked that "straight shooter Comey" would pull this stunt

Now saying "You know how the run things out of NY office, they would have leaked the email connection with Weiner"
posted by bluecore at 5:37 PM on October 28, 2016 [35 favorites]

@Hadas_Gold Fox news is going all live tonight and tomorrow, with a special Saturday editions of a bunch of their shows.

Live? To talk about what? I mean how many times can they say Hillary Email? There is nothing to this story and I'm trying to imagine how they are going to pump it up enough to have special Saturday editions. I know they will have Kellyann Conway and other Trump surrogates-- heck maybe even the big boy himself-- but they will be filling the airways with fluff because there is no there there.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Breaking: Anthony Weiner invented a time machine, went back in time to stop himself from sending that first dick pic. After succeeding, he realized he had some extra time so he sent a few more dick pics.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [89 favorites]

Solemn nods...! "I find it very hard to vote for someone who has no belief in Christ at all."

"But the alternative is Hillary, and she's so crooked," he went on. "I don't think the country will survive her."

Never mind that Hillary is (not that religion should matter, but still) infinity times the Christian that Trump will ever be.
posted by vverse23 at 5:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

the justification for the Clinton home email server, that she wanted to keep using her BlackBerry, is extremely thin, given the difficulty and risk of running your own email., especially when classified info is an issue. the only explanation that makes sense to me goes back to the way the Clinton Foundation was run and their cozy ties with wealthy foreign parties, tycoons, and states: she was trying to continue to use the foundation as a sort of secondary or shadow state department and maintain those close and lucrative ties with foreign leaders through various foundation employees of the Clintons, like Huma Abedin.

The Doug Band emails show exactly how the Clintons used the foundation to make over 150 million dollars in ten years by cultivating consulting contacts and speeches for the very rich people making donations.

but none of you want to hear this.
posted by ennui.bz at 5:40 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

but none of you want to hear this.

We know it and it's not really productive to wring our hands over it at this point in time. There's a difference.
posted by Talez at 5:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [31 favorites]

I mean how many times can they say Hillary Email?

For a first cut, you can probably just substitute "emails" for "Benghazi" in this report.
posted by tonycpsu at 5:43 PM on October 28, 2016

I mean yeah, we can talk about how shady everything looks and then I could go slit my wrists from the thought of Breitbart & Co. running the fucking country.
posted by Talez at 5:44 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

the justification for the Clinton home email server, that she wanted to keep using her BlackBerry, is extremely thin

She wanted two accounts on one device. Trivial today, but the NSA wouldn't provide that for the SoS at the time.

Side note: having a beef with the NSA is a plus in my book.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:44 PM on October 28, 2016 [53 favorites]

> Amen to that. Halloween deserves better than the horror show we got.

This election season needs less Mango Unchained and more David S. Pumpkins.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 5:44 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

150 million dollars in ten years

15 million a year doing book tours and speeches! I'm shocked!
posted by vrakatar at 5:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

I couldnt have two accounts on my device (and had to carry a blackberry and an iPhone) until like 2011. Something something enterprise outlook not supported something something. Her explanation makes perfect sense to me.
posted by melissasaurus at 5:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [52 favorites]

Never mind that Hillary is ... infinity times the Christian that Trump will ever be.

We know that, but these guys have a lung and a half full of Kool-Aid and I knew they wouldn't actually believe that. Just as they have never actually admitted to themselves that Obama had some career experience beyond being a community organizer before he ran for President. They have been programmed to reject as simply unbelievable the idea that any of these reviled people have any positive qualities at all. I thought it would be more productive to try to defuse the "America won't survive" idea by pointing out that yes, she obviously does have this negative quality but so does anyone else who might ever manage to seem viable for the job. So this negative quality isn't really the end of the world you guys think it is... but on the other hand, what were you thinking about Trump again?
posted by Bringer Tom at 5:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

I dunno. I figured the real reason was to keep the NSA and GOP snoops out of her emails to stop them from reporting flaming nothingburgers like the ones we're seeing now and consequently iceberging her 2016 presidential bid before it started. And I kind of wouldn't blame her.

btw, flaming nothingburgers is not yet taken as a username. get it while it's hot.
posted by mochapickle at 5:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

the justification for the Clinton home email server, that she wanted to keep using her BlackBerry, is extremely thin

She wanted two accounts on one device. Trivial today, but the NSA wouldn't provide that for the SoS at the time.

Yep, ennui.bz, your whole argument kinda breaks down when Clinton specifically asked for a secure Blackberry from the NSA that would have meant no private server if they'd been willing to set up one for her.
posted by chris24 at 5:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [83 favorites]

the justification for the Clinton home email server, that she wanted to keep using her BlackBerry, is extremely thin, given the difficulty and risk of running your own email., especially when classified info is an issue.

The fact that you think classified info was an issue for the Secretary of State's regular email shows how little you understand about this story.
posted by one_bean at 5:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [46 favorites]

but none of you want to hear this.

*grind grind grind*

You offer speculation about using the Clinton Foundation as a shadow state department. Yawn. Occam's razor says that the normal channels were being a pain in the ass and she circumvented them -- a dumb idea, and a needless risk. Your argument indicates that she would otherwise have difficulty maintaining those "lucrative ties" as though she wouldn't have been able to with gmail.
posted by tclark at 5:51 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

There are CEOs of large companies that get paid $100,000-$400,000 a day, 365 days a year, for their "services." It's horrible and stupid, but that's what happens right now. In that world, is it really so surprising that people would pay Bill Clinton $500K for a speech? A big drug company CEO makes close to that on a Sunday golf day.
posted by zachlipton at 5:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

An FBI agent talking openly about his job loudly in a public place? Sorry but that story seems like bullshit.
posted by dilaudid at 5:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

I for one am appalled and outraged that these latest email releases PROVE that Hillary Clinton was doing a play-by-email of Changeling using the old WoD rules. [fake]
posted by winna at 5:54 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

dilaudid: An FBI agent talking openly about his job loudly in a public place? Sorry but that story seems like bullshit.

I noted it wasn't confirmed. Yet, it does happen from time to time.
posted by bluecore at 5:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

But despite his partisan leanings, Comey has a pretty good track record of acting fairly. He stood up to Alberto Gonzales' attempt to ram extra-illegal surveillance through on Ashcroft's sickbed,

I just want to come back to this, because Comey gets a reputation for "doing the right thing" here, and it's not entirely deserved. Here's what happened, filled in with knowledge we only learned from the Snowden documents:

In the confrontation that ensued, Ashcroft supported Comey both formally (because Comey was legally the attorney general while Ashcroft was incapacitated) and on the legal substance. Bush reauthorized the program despite the Justice Department’s conclusion that it was unlawful. Comey then threatened to resign—with Ashcroft, FBI director Robert Mueller, and other top officials reportedly ready to join him. Bush ultimately backed down, and the troublesome program was briefly suspended until it could be renewed under a different legal authority.

So the NSA was gobbling up massive amounts of data based solely on a letter John Yoo wrote on "inherent presidential authority," basically the legal theory of "he's the President and we're at war, so nothing, even the Constitution, limits his surveillance power." Eventually, people realized that was a load of crap, so they came up with an argument nearly as ridiculous: the Authorization for the Use of Military Force against terrorists somehow grants an exemption to FISA, even though FISA is supposed to be the "exclusive means" for, well, foreign intelligence surveillance. Government lawyers, including Comey, had trouble stretching this to cover bulk internet metadata, which generally had no inherent connection to the war on terror, and Comey refused to sign off on it. Then the NSA went to the FISA court and got a blanket warrant to collect all the same data they were collecting all along ("though the Court apparently imposed stricter limits than the NSA’s own lawyers did"), until 2011 when that part of the program was stopped.

So yes, Comey refused to sign off on surveillance he believed to be illegal. But the surveillance continued, under other legal authorities, unabated. Comey made no effort, that we know of, to blow the whistle, going to Congress or the IG or anyone to report that the government had been, for years, conducting surveillance he considered to be unlawful. He also saw no problem with the FISA court issuing a blanket warrant for essentially "the internet's metadata." And he's emerged as an enemy of encryption.

Sure, Comey stood his ground in that hospital room and that's a good thing, but he did absolutely nothing about the invasion of privacy that was occurring, and actively worked to facilitate a way for the NSA to keep doing the same thing it was doing all along.
posted by zachlipton at 5:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

He's now saying that the NY @FBI office and DC office are openly feuding due to the #EricGarner case takeover

Apparently, all politics is local even at the FBI. If this is true, I kind of hate-love that this Comey move might be a result of a territorial pissing match between FBI branches.
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Anyone else in NYC see a camo-bedecked pickup truck driving around the city today with massive TRUMP signs on top? I'm trying to figure out what the hell they were up to.

Anyway I flipped it a double-bird on all of your behalf
posted by gusandrews at 5:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [35 favorites]

An FBI agent talking openly about his job loudly in a public place? Sorry but that story seems like bullshit.

I agree, but I am reminded of the time the FBI raided an acquaintance of mine for allegedly hacking a community college and took his Nintendo but not his laptop.
posted by xyzzy at 5:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [40 favorites]

@ThePlumLineGS
"Pete Williams just confirmed on @allinwithchris that "many" of the newly found emails could be "duplicates." As I suggested earlier."

Seems that a lot of people are starting to think the emails are just dupes of stuff already known about. So she logged into an IMAP email account from the computer and some emails were downloaded to it?
posted by chris24 at 5:58 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Apparently an Iowa Trump supporter was so worried about the vote being rigged that she decided to vote twice.

Don't do that, dumb-ass Trump supporters. I know that you think that it's easy to commit voter fraud, but you will get caught.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:03 PM on October 28, 2016 [26 favorites]

Anyone else in NYC see a camo-bedecked pickup truck driving around the city today with massive TRUMP signs on top? I'm trying to figure out what the hell they were up to.

Sacha Baron Cohen filming a new movie?
posted by nathan_teske at 6:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Odd, this FBI thing. The first thought I had was when Bobby Kennedy was cooking hamburgers in his office fireplace which was across from Hoovers...I'll gladly pay you Election Day for a fury of WTF today. But I'll add this, ignore it because I'm willing to bet that's when another announcement come Monday and ignore it but Hilliary is all show me the beef when the beef may be with her staff. To me, that's the ringer; HRC is involved but not centered upon in the investigation.
No, yeah, put JPM at defcon 2.
posted by clavdivs at 6:06 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

but none of you want to hear this.

No, it's just that it's the only thing you come here to say, over and over again.
posted by holgate at 6:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [75 favorites]

, especially when classified info is an issue

Classified information is NEVER supposed to be sent over email, even State Department email. And in fact Hillary did not send classified information. She received that information; but it was not marked as classified. She had no reason to think it was classified for that reason. There was no law about private email servers. The previous administration used them extensively and lost 22 million emails as a result.
posted by humanfont at 6:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [83 favorites]

Maddow making the excellent point of Hillary Clinton's political life, once again, being turned upside down by the sexual misbehavior of someone who is NOT HER.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [93 favorites]

Anyone else in NYC see a camo-bedecked pickup truck driving around the city today with massive TRUMP signs

Anecdotally: I saw my first Trump pins today here in NYC, two in the span of about an hour. There was a woman on the D train at Bryant Park in midtown wearing a red MAGA hat and a pin on her backpack, and then, over by Hudson Yards on 34th St., a fellow walking down the sidewalk wearing a big TRUMP PENCE pin on the lapel of his tweed jacket.
posted by Oxydude at 6:12 PM on October 28, 2016

My mom, who is a lawyer, just told me that she attended the training be a voters' rights protection volunteer, assigned to a polling place on election day. Because she lives in one of the cities in Ohio that has been mentioned as a possible target for voter intimidation by open-carry Trump supporters, the stakes are very high.

I'm often very proud of my mom, a lefty liberal who went into corporate law in the '80s to support her family, instead of legal aid, like she wanted. I have never been prouder of her than I am today.
posted by merriment at 6:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [112 favorites]

I like Rachel Madow as much (or more!) as the next person, but eight minutes -- including a detour into who has the naughtiest name, Weiner or Boehner -- to get to the latest email story is seven minutes too much.
posted by Room 641-A at 6:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

I like Rachel Madow as much (or more!) as the next person, but eight minutes -- including a detour into who has the naughtiest name, Weiner or Boehner -- to get to the latest email story is seven minutes too much.

It's been a long day. I give her a little bit of a break.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Politico: Comey's disclosure shocks former prosecutors: FBI director's announcement of new evidence in the Clinton probe compounds criticism of his earlier willingness to discuss the case.
posted by chris24 at 6:15 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Human Rights Campaign maintains Mark Kirk Endorsement, despite his racist remarks

Despite the fact that Duckworth has a better record on LGBTQ rights. This tells me everything I need to know about the organization's priorities and views on intersectionality.

There were a lot of things that bummed me out about this whole thing as an asian american who constantly has to explain that yes I am also a real american. I mean if an American who can trace her lineage back to the american revolution, lose both legs fighting in the Iraq war and then has a long history of public service but dares to have a drop of asian blood in her can also have her american credibility questioned, where does that put me?

What I despair about this HRC thing is that as more orgs continue to get the rights we all fought so hard for, the "fuck you got mine" mentality will continue to weaken it for the rest of us.
posted by Karaage at 6:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [86 favorites]

but none of you want to hear this.

You know they found the email from Colin Powell recommending Clinton use a private server right? You know several other high level officials also had private servers right?
posted by xammerboy at 6:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [32 favorites]

It's super simple. Clinton having an 85\% (or whatever, I'm not looking) probability of winning means...

Yes, it's too simple. That number is the marginal posterior probability of a win. They should at least show the posterior distribution on the probability of a win, and even that would not reflect the full uncertainty.
posted by Coventry at 6:25 PM on October 28, 2016

Classified information is NEVER supposed to be sent over email
this is incorrect. here is a public release about SIPR email
but it was not marked as classified
it was not *properly marked*, but there were elements with classification symbols
She had no reason to think it was classified for that reason
see above
There was no law about private email servers
there was and is: Federal Records Act
The previous administration used them extensively and lost 22 million
they also were in violation of the records laws. they did not lose those, they deleted them at rove's instruction.
posted by j_curiouser at 6:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

I like Rachel Madow as much (or more!) as the next person, but eight minutes -- including a detour into who has the naughtiest name, Weiner or Boehner -- to get to the latest email story is seven minutes too much.

That's Maddow, though. She'll never take three minutes when twelve will do.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Anthony Weiner is challenging the Watergate break-in as the most problems a tricky Dick has ever caused for a Democratic Presidential campaign.
posted by andoatnp at 6:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

there was and is: Federal Records Act

I am seriously getting tired of this.

From the very first paragraph of that link:

The Presidential and Federal Records Act Amendments of 2014 (H.R. 1233) is a United States federal statute which amended the Presidential Records Act and Federal Records Act. Introduced as H.R. 1233, it was signed into law by President Barack Obama on November 26, 2014.

Hilary Clinton was Secretary of State until February 2013.
posted by Zalzidrax at 6:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [77 favorites]

good lord, zalzidrax, have you spent any time in government. that link is for the amendment that clarifies many things; the records act goes back to like 1950.

and in all the training everywhere by everyone: email is a Record.

cf HHS
posted by j_curiouser at 6:41 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

Just for not-fun, imagine what the election would be like if our choices were Trump vs. Weiner. And we'd have to vote for the guy who sexts teenagers and who literally can't keep his hands off his namesake because THAT is the least of bad options.

they're looking at every device Anthony Weiner might have used

Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.

After succeeding, he realized he had some extra time so he sent a few more dick pics.

This reminds me of a story someone told me one time about some idiot who managed to delete the entire company's files while he was deleting his work porn collection....and then while that was going on, he downloaded some more porn until literally, nothing was left of the company except the guy's porn downloads.

"Imagine if he sat on this information, and didn't reveal to Congress that there was potentially new evidence regarding Clinton's emails."

Gene Weingarten has brought this up periodically in his chats over the last year: what happens if someone becomes aware of something awful about Hillary, what are the ethics of bringing this up. NOW WE GET TO FIND OUT. Whee. Can't wait for his next chat.

they have enough of a reservoir of bullshit scandals to keep their investigations going for at least the duration of her first term.
the worst part is that when clinton wins, we're going to have 4 more goddamned years of this goddamned shit at a time when our country is going to be faced with some very serious situations and decisions

I'm reasonably assuming Hillary will get impeached. Sad but most likely true. And probably a one-termer unless they manage to find someone worse than Trump.

I think it was boneheaded to try to protect her privacy by routing emails through her private server,

Given how everyone snoops through the woman's EVERYTHING, I honestly can't blame her for wanting to try to keep something, anything, private, even anything that was innocuous shit.
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

I even think Hillary Clinton committed a lot of security violations and I am still tired of us arguing about the damn email.
posted by corb at 6:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [75 favorites]

I hope and pray the next eleven days contain zero extra needless bullshit. 8 Nov won't put an end to the negativity, but I'm hoping that with the end of the unceasing horse-race coverage and drummed-up drama, we as fellow citizens can just chill a necessary minute.

Personally, I'm at peak cynicism and it's not healthy. Can't wait for the end of this surreal national experience. IT WILL BE THE BEST QUONSMAS EVER!
posted by chaoticgood at 6:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

That's Maddow, though. She'll never take three minutes when twelve will do.

I call it the shaggy dog politics hour with Rachel Maddow.
posted by peeedro at 6:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

sorry, corb
posted by j_curiouser at 6:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

good lord, zalzidrax, have you spent any time in government. that link is for the amendment that clarifies many things; the records act goes back to like 1950.

If I'm reading it right, one of the things it clarifies is, in fact, preventing private e-mail accounts. That directive had apparently not existed before 2014.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [26 favorites]

There was no law that required Clinton to use a government server for her emails. There also wasn't one that required Powell to use a government server for his emails, or all the Bushies that used a GOP server for their emails. If there was such a law, the FBI and Congressional Republicans surely would have noted it at some point during this fiasco. Clinton had her lawyers go through her emails, separate out the government-related ones, and gave the to the State Department, where it's been treated like any other government record (those would be the tens of thousands of emails that were publicly released, plus those withheld for the usual FOIA exemption reasons). In contrast, the Bush Administration officials had all their government-related emails on private servers deleted, millions of them.

Now, should there be a law that requires officials to use government servers for government email? Quite possibly yes. A change along those lines was made in 2014, as you noted, but even that allows for private servers as long as emails are copied to a government system within 20 days (this raises some interesting questions with regard to, say, text messages, but an "official email only" policy would essentially ban text messages). Are there things Clinton should have done better or differently with regard to her emails? Damn straight. But you're implying that she violated records laws by using a private server, and I'd like to see evidence of that.
posted by zachlipton at 6:53 PM on October 28, 2016 [38 favorites]

That's Maddow, though. She'll never take three minutes when twelve will do.

I know, the Boehner detour just seemed like the perfect excuse to finally vent about it.
posted by Room 641-A at 6:53 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

@MarlowNYC
George W. Bush Administration:

60 embassy deaths
Secretary of State uses private server
Iraq War
22M deleted emails
0 FBI investigations
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [171 favorites]

I have a friend I respect, is on the right side of many issues (like the Dakota pipeline stuff) AND YET is spreading around the Wikileaks email crap on social media, linking specifically to this site. I don't know how to help persuade him to stop buying into the Wikileaks / Drudge Report / alt-right crap, and it's making me feel angry and helpless.

Seriously, unfollow them or hide them or do whatever you need to not to see them during the election...

...but keep in mind that we're looking at four years of smears on Clinton so maybe just keep their name/handle in your kill file.
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

I seriously want to know where some people are getting their information, though. One of my relatives is posting, sincerely, that Hillary has accepted a deal to step down in exchange for a plea bargain. This is so patently false I can't even begin to contradict it without twitching. But he believes it, so he had to have gotten it from /somewhere/. Who is putting this crap out?
posted by corb at 6:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

SIPR email is a separate system on SIPRNET. It has nothing to do with ordinary @state.gov or Clinton's server.
posted by humanfont at 6:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Who is putting this crap out?

Ed Klein?
posted by Joey Michaels at 7:02 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

always amazing to me that while people are debating about emails Congress continues to skirt under the radar and remain free of requirements of the federal records act and FOIA.
posted by Karaage at 7:03 PM on October 28, 2016 [19 favorites]

In this ever changing world in which we live in, it's nice to know that certain things are still constant, like the "Human Rights Campaign" going out of their way to be giant douchebags.
posted by tobascodagama at 7:03 PM on October 28, 2016 [24 favorites]

This is so patently false I can't even begin to contradict it without twitching. But he believes it, so he had to have gotten it from /somewhere/.

Its your relative? Maybe ask him?
posted by cashman at 7:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Not to sound flippant, and I do love a good search, but if it was my cousin saying something about Donald Trump has agreed to bite Mike Pence's head off while Ozzy watches, my first action would be to ask "uh, and just where did you hear that??"
posted by cashman at 7:06 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

I did, but it's fucking crickets all the way down because my family knows I hate Trump so are carefully not engaging me on politics in election season.
posted by corb at 7:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

I even think Hillary Clinton committed a lot of security violations and I am still tired of us arguing about the damn email.

This is the GOP running on autopilot. "Hey! October Surprise! Let's revisit a bureaucratic snafu a week and change before election day!"

This is the Clinton Campaign. "Hey! We're surprised and shocked. Really. Here's a video of The Donald groping someone as punishment, on tape. Back atcha. This isn't the worst or last of these. Stay. Down."

And that's where we are in 2016. War of the Oppo Drops. Ideas, track record of said ideas, track record of said candidates to put ideas into action...

Nope. Oppo Drop.

The hell of it is, Clinton is a policy wonk with a proven track record. She's utter crap at communicating it outside our echo chamber. Even the debates were all about oppo drop.

USA Today or someone did a poll I can't find at the moment... but Pence/Trump would be demolishing Hillary/Kaine. At the same time, Sanders/Anyone would demolish without blinking Pence/Trump.

On the other hand, the next presidential election cycle will be dominated by the race between the incumbent, and the Governor from Rhode Island... also a deomocrat, in the primary. The GOP is going to present a professional-wrestler and Nazi-Fur cosplay hobbyist as a credible candidate.
posted by Slap*Happy at 7:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

The lesson here is, guys, do not send unsolicited dick pics, or you might get a fascist elected. NOT HYPERBOLE.
posted by krinklyfig at 7:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [100 favorites]

The thing which annoys me right now is that the HRC voters are voting for her-- in part-- because they care about content. So if a story like this breaks, they really feel they need to understand it and agonise about it and work it through. Trump can literally have 12 corruption stories a day and none of his voters care at all.
posted by frumiousb at 7:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [56 favorites]

I'm guessing President Hillary Clinton never uses email at all. Right?
posted by dnash at 7:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

The lesson here is, guys, do not send unsolicited dick pics, or you might get a fascist elected. NOT HYPERBOLE.

That reminds me, a friend on his way out of Minneapolis checked into Facebook from the "Senator Larry Craig Memorial Restroom." today.
posted by mikelieman at 7:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

Not sure if the World Series is a national ad buy or not, but I got a Trump ad. In Texas.
posted by hoyland at 7:14 PM on October 28, 2016

I may never use email again. Can any of you imagine what we'd look like to the world if all of our private emails were released as searchable online? If Wikileaks publishes this crap about her, then what's to stop them from publishing anyone's private email? When is it okay to invade privacy?
posted by frumiousb at 7:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

USA Today or someone did a poll I can't find at the moment... but Pence/Trump would be demolishing Hillary/Kaine. At the same time, Sanders/Anyone would demolish without blinking Pence/Trump.

On the gripping hand Sanders has never faced a decent oppo drop. It's easy to be a knight in shining armour when you've never been in a serious fight. Clinton also demolishes Ted Cruz for what it's worth.
posted by Francis at 7:16 PM on October 28, 2016 [47 favorites]

The backstory here -- with the WaPo reprinting Comey's staff memo and other top-tier reporting on internal conflict -- seems to coalesce around that reported phone convo from Jeremy Dickey: that Comey suspected (or was told) the NYC FBI office would leak details of the shared laptop if he didn't go public to Chaffetz and the permanent investigation gang.

Yeah, model of best practices there at the FBI.

I wish Sarah Kendzior's experience covering authoritarianism weren't so apposite (and so does she), but she was getting twitchy today about the behaviour of security services -- cop unions, border guard/ICE unions, perhaps some FBI agents -- and the attitude towards the acquittal of the Bundy Gang. There's a tension between "serve the public" and "gloves off, kick ass and get shit done" that requires strong elected leadership, and also not having a fucking fascist on the ballot.

I'm guessing President Hillary Clinton never uses email at all.

Obama talked about his custom iPhone on Jimmy Kimmel's show: it has no cellular components, so no SMS, and no camera and no music, but it does have email. But I imagine Hillary will happily be done with it for the duration -- just as GWB stopped sending emails when he became president.
posted by holgate at 7:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

USA Today or someone did a poll I can't find at the moment... but Pence/Trump would be demolishing Hillary/Kaine. At the same time, Sanders/Anyone would demolish without blinking Pence/Trump.

Those hypotheticals are worse than meaningless IMO. They've never faced oppo, never ran a national GE campaign, never successfully done the million things you need to do to win a national primary and an election. But hey, they have lower unfavorables. Yeah, so did everybody else who got crushed by the candidate with the high unfavorables.

The idea that Pence would be beating Clinton is so ridiculous it's offensive. He wasn't even going to win reelection in fucking red Indiana.
posted by chris24 at 7:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [83 favorites]

Wait why doesn't Obama get music? No wonder he's going gray, lack of a good soundtrack!
posted by corb at 7:23 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Comey sent FBI employees a letter:

To all:

This morning I sent a letter to Congress in connection with the Secretary Clinton email investigation. Yesterday, the investigative team briefed me on their recommendation with respect to seeking access to emails that have recently been found in an unrelated case. Because those emails appear to be pertinent to our investigation, I agreed that we should take appropriate steps to obtain and review them.

Of course, we don’t ordinarily tell Congress about ongoing investigations, but here I feel an obligation to do so given that I testified repeatedly in recent months that our investigation was completed. I also think it would be misleading to the American people were we not to supplement the record. At the same time, however, given that we don’t know the significance of this newly discovered collection of emails, I don’t want to create a misleading impression. In trying to strike that balance, in a brief letter and in the middle of an election season, there is significant risk of being misunderstood, but I wanted you to hear directly from me about it.

Jim Comey

"Significant risk of being misunderstood???" That's the understatement of 2016. Maybe if you have something to say 11 days before the election, you should avoid saying things that have a significant risk of being misunderstood. And then speak up if people are misunderstanding them.
posted by zachlipton at 7:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [50 favorites]

Pence/Trump would feature Trump demolishing Pence and ignoring the actual opposition.
posted by Artw at 7:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

The lesson here is, guys, do not send unsolicited dick pics, or you might get a fascist elected. NOT HYPERBOLE.

Also, that all of America revolves around whether or not a guy gets to shove his (overly photographed/tweeted) dick into some (grabbed) pussy. More or less.

When is it okay to invade privacy?

We don't have any any more. Now that everyone has the ability to snoop on everyone in every way forever, it's gone.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

I am nothing but committed to factual accuracy, so, much like James Comey, I feel compelled to offer this update to my previous statements. According to a Trump campaign official, the airplane stairs fit fine for Trump's plane, but were being repositioned. Reports that they were running two hours late at the time still persist.
posted by zachlipton at 7:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm pretty sure a Venn diagram of the unsolicited dick pics crowd and the want to get a fascist elected crowd is very nearly circular.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 7:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

Wait why doesn't Obama get music?

I'd guess it's a blanket "no outside files" policy. No third-party apps, either, and many default apps disabled, since he was joking that at least the weather app worked. I think he has (or had) a non-networked iPod for music and workout playlists at some point -- maybe a Shuffle?
posted by holgate at 7:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

The probability they're giving has a precise mathematical definition

"Math is a common democrat lie. It can't make the budget great. I'll have the best economy."
posted by effbot at 7:42 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

@briangaar: Anthony Weiner is the character in a zombie movie who doesn't admit that he's been bitten & then gets everyone killed
posted by tonycpsu at 7:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [85 favorites]

> 'What a Crock': Clinton Breaks DAPL Silence With Statement That Says 'Literally Nothing'.

Meanwhile, Bernie released his own statement: Sanders in Open Letter to President Obama: Take a Bold Stand Against DAPL
posted by homunculus at 7:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Newsweek has a story Hillary Clinton's Emails: The Real Reason the FBI Is Reviewing More of Them, with some background on Abedin's use of emails from, you guessed it, "an official with knowledge of the investigation." It's Eichenwald, so apply all the usual filters you do to his stuff, and recognize that the sourcing is rather ambiguous as to what comes from "government records" (I presume this is the stuff the FBI released about its investigation a few months ago) what's from the anonymous official.

Because Clinton preferred to read documents on paper rather than on a screen, emails and other files were often printed out and provided to her either at her office or home, where they were delivered in a diplomatic pouch by a security agent. Abedin, like many State Department officials, found the government network technology to be cumbersome, and she had great trouble printing documents there, investigative records show. As a result, she sometimes transferred emails from her unclassified State Department account to either her Yahoo account or her account on Clinton’s server, and printed the emails from there. It is not clear whether she ever transferred official emails to the account she used for her husband’s campaign.

Abedin would use this procedure for printing documents when she received emails she believed Clinton needed to see and when the Secretary forwarded emails to her for printing. Abedin told the FBI she would often print these emails without reading them. Abedin printed a large number of emails this way, in part because, investigative records show, other staff members considered her Clinton’s “gatekeeper” and often sent Abedin electronic communications they wanted the Secretary to see.

This procedure for printing documents, the government official says, appears to be how the newly discovered emails ended up on the laptop shared by Abedin and her husband. It is unclear whether any of those documents were downloaded onto the laptop off of her personal email accounts or were saved on an external storage device, such as a flash drive, and then transferred to the shared computer. There is also evidence that the laptop was used to send emails from Abedin to Clinton; however, unless she was told by Abedin in every instance, Clinton could not have known what device her aide was using to transmit electronic information to her.

posted by zachlipton at 7:47 PM on October 28, 2016 [6 favorites]

These! E! Mails!
*they will not let them go*
Let them go!

These! E! Mails!
*they will not let them go*
Let them go!

These! E! Mails!
*they will not let them go*
Never never never never

*will not let them go*
*O let them GO*
Oooooooooooooo

No! No! No! No! No! No! No!
Obama mi-Obama-mio
O NBC-oh let them go!

It's Hillary! We're writing on the site! of! Hillstory-
Of You and Me
On MetaFEEEEEEEEEE!!!

*flam*
*headbang*
posted by petebest at 7:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [30 favorites]

"As a result, she sometimes transferred emails from her unclassified State Department account"

There is also evidence that the laptop was used to send emails from Abedin to Clinton;

What?!

Unclassified. Emails.
posted by mikelieman at 7:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

( read that in your best Raiders of the Lost Ark "Top. Men." tone for best effect. )
posted by mikelieman at 7:53 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

Well I'm sorry that I voted already because finding out Clinton liked to print out emails makes me reconsider everything. [all the fake]
posted by winna at 7:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [18 favorites]

WaPo: This. Cannot. Be. Happening. Somewhat of a dark comedy piece, perhaps more of a despair piece, from Hillary's perspective upon being told about the letter today. A small sample:

“No,” Hillary says.

The stock market gets confused and plummets 150 points.

Bill Clinton’s entire left arm goes numb. An entire foot of snow falls at once.

“No,” Hillary repeats. “This cannot be happening. We are too close. This cannot be. I will not—” She twitches. The ground outside is entirely blanketed with white. Some of it begins to coalesce into a gigantic snow-dragon. “Is this to be my whole life?” she asks. “Is it always going to come back to the ruinous acts of idiot wieners?”

posted by zachlipton at 7:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [27 favorites]

Well I'm sorry that I voted already because finding out Clinton liked to print out emails makes me reconsider everything.

The real question: Underlining or Highlighting.
posted by mikelieman at 7:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

So it sounds like the only thing new here is that Abedin sometimes used Wiener's computer?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:57 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Remember when scandals could be described in textbooks for young students? The Teapot Dome Scandal! Watergate! The Pentagon Papers! Iran-Contra!
posted by xyzzy at 8:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [9 favorites]

You know how different concepts can get associated in your mind? It just happens whether you want it to or not. Now every time I have to do something with email or think about emails I need to send I just get this gross, stressed, squidy feeling because of it's association in this really gross election and Trump in general. And now it's even worse because oh guess what now we get to add dick pics to the association mess.

It will go away once the election is over. Or at least I hope it does.
posted by Jalliah at 8:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

So it sounds like the only thing new here is that Abedin sometimes used Wiener's computer?

It's not about whether this will lead to legal repercussions for Clinton; it is a virtual certainty that it won't. It's about the fact that this is all we're going to hear about for the next 11 days until and unless something new and terrible about Trump comes up. It's Trump so we can hope that will be the case. Because Trump.

But it means we'll know with dead certainty whether anyone was holding back Trump oppo. Because if they were, they'll drop it in the next 3 days. If nothing comes out it means nobody has anything and we're in for a rocky ride.
posted by Justinian at 8:01 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

Someone up thread said something about even the debates being nothing but "oppo drops" and not about policy. Which no. Just no. Even when Clinton referred to one of Trump's many scandals during debates, she *always* turned it back around to either specific policy areas she had in a related area or aspirational ideas about the kind of America she believes in. She excelled at taking negative bullshit and talking about both policy and emotion during the debates. It's so frustrating that we (meaning the press, people who don't like Clinton, etc.) pretend like there hasn't been any policy in this race when there's been lots. Sigh.
posted by R343L at 8:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [44 favorites]

@Nate_Cohn:
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

An electorate 2.3% less white is not good for Trump.
posted by chris24 at 8:05 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

I have much love for the Freddie Mercury riffs. But Hillary is totally "We Are The Champions."
"And we'll keep on fighting 'til the end... no time for losers... 'cause we are the champions...."

Meanwhile I've been considering early voting, but parking in downtown OKC is a nightmare, so I think the local church is a more relaxing alternative. I look forward to seeing the next president take office. Question:
Pantsuit or a stately red dress, a la Queen Elizabeth II?
posted by TrishaU at 8:06 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

"Math is a common democrat lie. It can't make the budget great. I'll have the best economy."

FWIW, I believe a Clinton win is exceedingly likely. It seemed worthwhile to point out that the 538 probability estimates are only marginally more precise than a personal opinion, because some people got in a tizzy about a change of two or three points.
posted by Coventry at 8:06 PM on October 28, 2016

Pantsuit or a stately red dress, a la Queen Elizabeth II?

Definitely pantsuit. It's iconic.
posted by Itaxpica at 8:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Sanders/Anyone would demolish without blinking Pence/Trump

I don't believe that. While I believe Sanders would beat either Trump or Pence (not that Pence would ever have picked Trump as a running mate - I don't think anyone would have, so flipping the ballot like that is nonsensical), he didn't have to endure the scrutiny that Clinton's gone through in the last few months. His skeletons haven't been long-aired and well-explained, and he'd be facing heat for them. Also, his implication that all the nations ills are class-based would start to get serious attention from the left, and Republicans would be perfectly happy to jump on any implication that he fails to be sensitive to matters of race - never mind what their own candidates do.

I don't think Hillary would lose to Pence, either; Pence's anti-LGBT policies have barely been noted in the media since he was selected as a running mate, and his claim that "we'd never punish the woman for an abortion" is directly contradicted by Purvi Patel, who is currently serving 20 years in Indiana for exactly that.

And Pence's dodging of Trump's positions wouldn't work when it's his own policies in question, which, unlike Trump, he actually has a track record of implementing. Racist immigration, the law requiring death certificates for miscarriages, the "Religious Freedom Restoration Act" that cost Indiana 60 million dollars as tourists and companies decided to take their business elsewhere. We'd have a more standard election process with Pence at the head, but he also has very little ability to reach outside of his core constituency. It's just a bit broader than Trump's core, and is less prone to the Three! Word! Chant! form of political commentary.

Can any of you imagine what we'd look like to the world if all of our private emails were released as searchable online?

There are topics I don't discuss online, at all, ever, even with close friends in emails or locked blog posts. I don't hint at them, don't even name the topics; the closest I get is posts like this where I mention "there are things I don't say online." (Not that my emails don't contain enough to potentially lose me my job, or keep me from ever being elected--but the things I know could truly destroy my life, are not on disc anywhere.) But I know that a lot of people younger than me grew up thinking "of course you put everything on the computer; it's easier to manage that way."

The 2024 election (I'm gonna be hopeful that 2020 is Hillary neatly stomping on the remnants of this year's Repub lineup) could include candidates born in 1988, whose entire middle-school & up life is documented online. I think we're seeing the last wave of the "pre-internet" candidates, which is why they're mostly older. I suspect that sometime soon we'll get a "jump down" in average age of serious contenders for many levels of office, as Millennials change the shape of politics.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

Remember when scandals could be described in textbooks for young students?

Just because they don't put them in text books doesn't mean there weren't sex scandals back then.
posted by dilaudid at 8:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [29 favorites]

Remember when scandals could be described in textbooks for young students?

Just because they don't put them in text books doesn't mean there weren't sex scandals back then.

Something something Reynolds Pamphlet
posted by Itaxpica at 8:12 PM on October 28, 2016 [29 favorites]

Pantsuit or a stately red dress

Definitely the pantsuit: it gets butt-busting cold and windy in DC most Januarys, and a dress would be very drafty.

Also, for dilaudid:
Ma, Ma, where's my Pa?
Gone to the White House, ha ha ha!
posted by easily confused at 8:18 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

NGL I kinda hope she already has her Victory Pantsuit picked out.
posted by Itaxpica at 8:19 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Does Hamilton have a song about clothing? Something cheerful to think about between the election and the inauguration.
Nobody obsesses about what the men wear. But it's a thing, so we might as well lend our thoughts to sartorial splendor, instead of thatotherstuffthatmakesnodifference ... I vote a nice solid red dress, knee-length, with a simple jacket and red-white-blue scarf (tucked in because wind happens). No hat. No gloves. Knock-out red lips.
posted by TrishaU at 8:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Does Hamilton have a song about clothing?

[MULLIGAN]
Yo, I’m a tailor’s apprentice
And I got y’all knuckleheads in loco parentis
I’m joining the rebellion cuz I know it’s my chance
To socially advance, instead of sewin’ some pants!
I’m gonna take a—
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

The part of this that I find hardest to believe is that Abedin and Weiner shared a laptop. Why would professionals at this level have any need to share a laptop? We are way less important and have way less money and have never in almost 30 years shared a laptop despite sharing a business.
posted by HotToddy at 8:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Nobody obsesses about what the men wear.

As a dude interested in male fashion, especially of the classic-suits variety, I seriously wish they did. Nobody ever asks, and if it ever does come up its always just like "uhh... Marty Greenfield?"
posted by Itaxpica at 8:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Is it really clear how much they shared the laptop? Perhaps it's just occasionally. I can completely imagine they might both have laptops (possibly more than one) but while on a trip or at an event, it just turns out occasionally that the other's laptop was more convenient.
posted by R343L at 8:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

New episode of Hillary's podcast: Episode 8: You need to vote in this election. Marlon Marshall, Hillary Clinton's director of state campaigns, reassures Max about the campaign's ground game. [16:05]
posted by cashman at 8:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

It's probably the house laptop that they use for random bullshit -- looking up recipes, Google mapping an address, printing out boring-ass unclassified emails for work when it's too much hassle to go fire up a different machine in another room, et cetera.
posted by palomar at 8:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

Well, apparently Hamilton "dresses like the pits of fashion," so Hillary shouldn't take any tips from him.
posted by TwoStride at 8:30 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

Those of you who had "Anthony Weiner's hog" as the Chekov's gun of the 2016 election, please see the cashier to collect your winnings.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 8:31 PM on October 28, 2016 [22 favorites]

Just because they don't put them in text books doesn't mean there weren't sex scandals back then.

As my [experienced journalist] mom said, a conspiracy of male privilege kept most of those scandals out of the news. But they happened.
posted by Miko at 8:31 PM on October 28, 2016 [20 favorites]

Just because they don't put them in text books doesn't mean there weren't sex scandals back then.

I know. I was just being silly. I find myself in a weird place where I long for arms for hostage scandals over shit that's only coming to light because Anthony allegedly couldn't control himself with a minor.

Is it really clear how much they shared the laptop? Perhaps it's just occasionally.

According to reporting on The 11th Hour, it's another 30,000 emails. So this investigation will be months at least.
posted by xyzzy at 8:33 PM on October 28, 2016

The way most thick mail clients work, all she had to do was setup the account once locally and let it run for a while (limited by network speeds and server limits) and it could download as much email as she had in that account. Most mail clients by default will try to download basically everything.
posted by R343L at 8:37 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

30,000? Where did the number 3 come from? Did someone drop four zeros?
posted by Coventry at 8:40 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Human Rights Campaign maintains Mark Kirk Endorsement, despite his racist remarks

Despite the fact that Duckworth has a better record on LGBTQ rights. This tells me everything I need to know about the organization's priorities and views on intersectionality.

I've always thought of HRC as being the organization for people who wanted to show their support of equality by putting the world's smallest bumper sticker on their car.

corb: I seriously want to know where some people are getting their information, though. One of my relatives is posting, sincerely, that Hillary has accepted a deal to step down in exchange for a plea bargain. This is so patently false I can't even begin to contradict it without twitching. But he believes it, so he had to have gotten it from /somewhere/. Who is putting this crap out?

I think that you're seriously underestimating the ability of many people to pull crap out of their ass--or to believe the crap that others pull out, as odoriferous as it is--when they're really desperate.
posted by Halloween Jack at 8:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

The email thing is really bad. No, it's not technically illegal. But the leader of an organization should follow that organization's own rules, and if anyone other than Hillary in the state department was using a private email server, they'd be fired (and in fact it did get an ambassador in quite a bit of trouble). Government email is usually encrypted (I don't know about the state department specifically), and for pretty good reasons -- even emails that seem mundane could give other countries big hints about upcoming decisions. And, of course, the emails are retained in case they're needed in a lawsuit. Hillary's staff blatantly failed to do either of these things.

Is it the worst thing ever? Is she the only politician to ever have done it? No. But she made the State Department look really bad when her job was to make it look good. If she were running against a serious opponent, it would be a major liability.
posted by miyabo at 8:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

corb: I seriously want to know where some people are getting their information, though. One of my relatives is posting, sincerely, that Hillary has accepted a deal to step down in exchange for a plea bargain. This is so patently false I can't even begin to contradict it without twitching. But he believes it, so he had to have gotten it from /somewhere/. Who is putting this crap out?

/r/the_dolan. /pol/. Alt-right. The latest one is the draft our daughters fake-conscription "ready to die for Hillary's war in Syria" bullshit. That one came out of /pol/ two nights ago I believe and people have been running with it.
posted by Talez at 8:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

I think that you're seriously underestimating the ability of many people to pull crap out of their ass--or to believe the crap that others pull out, as odoriferous as it is--when they're really desperate.

One thing that's also become more and more evident over the election cycle is that there are just a lot of trolls. There are plenty of people knowingly generating false but tasty information just to see how far they can get it to go. Searching #MAGA on Twitter gets you plenty of this pure throw-it-at-the-wall disinformation, and the only motivation I can possibly imagine is the enjoyment of making everyone jump when you throw a new piece of rotting garbage at them. It's a pastime.
posted by Miko at 8:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [10 favorites]

In Paul Ryan's statement on the "reopening" of the FBI case, he calls for Clinton to stop receiving national security briefings because she "has nobody but herself to blame".

This seems wrong in all parts, and disproportionate.
posted by lazugod at 8:56 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

Press should just keep asking Ryan what he thinks about Trump's positions and attitudes on women, non-white people, immigrants, Muslims, the disabled, veterans, trade policy, Russia, ISIS, etc. The options Nov 8th are Clinton is elected or Trump is and it'd be nice for Ryan to go on record that he really thinks Clinton's mistakes with email are worse than everything Trump has said. After all, if a candidate shouldn't be receiving national security briefings then they hardly should become president.
posted by R343L at 8:59 PM on October 28, 2016 [13 favorites]

>Classified information is NEVER supposed to be sent over email
>this is incorrect. here is a public release about SIPR email
SIPRNET is a completely separate system used exclusively for classified information. These are a small number of secured terminals guarded by security staff 24/7. It has nothing to do with daily, routine email transferred over .GOV or private email accounts. And by the way, your citation refers to a process put into place a year after Clinton left office.

>but it was not marked as classified
>it was not *properly marked*, but there were elements with classification symbols
Comey was forced to admit under cross examination and under oath:
Question: If Secretary Clinton really were an expert at what’s classified and what’s not classified and we’re following the manual, the absence of a header would tell her immediately that those three documents were not classified. Am I correct in that?
Comey: That would be a reasonable inference.

>There was no law about private email servers
>there was and is: Federal Records Act
This is totally false. This has never been a law prohibiting use of private email servers and there still is not. The Federal Records Act was amended in 2014, a year after Clinton left office, to require that if private email is used, it must be copied to the government archives within 20 days. This new rule doesn't take effect until 2017, four years after Clinton left office. In any event, Clinton did send copies of her emails to the archives in compliance with the Federal Records Act.

Look, we went through all of this months ago. Jumping in here at this late date with a bunch of misinformation without making even a minimal effort at educating yourself just makes you look foolish.
posted by JackFlash at 9:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [132 favorites]

Gotta love that half the responses to Ryan's tweet are from Trump supporters yelling that they want to drain the swamp.
posted by gatorae at 9:02 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

The LA Times has an anonymous official who said (emphasis added):

The emails were not to or from Clinton, and contained information that appeared to be more of what agents had already uncovered, the official said, but in an abundance of caution, they felt they needed to further scrutinize them.

Putting all this together, the picture I'm starting to see looks something like:

Various people emailed Huma Abedin stuff that should be printed out and given to Clinton to read.
She printed the stuff, sometimes without reading it herself, but often had trouble printing from State Department computers/accounts, because reasons.
To successfully print stuff, sometimes she'd forward the emails to her personal account or her account on the Clinton server and then print them from that account.
This sometimes involved a laptop she shared with her husband.
FBI is going through the laptop as part of the sexting investigation, finds such emails and thinks "oh, Clinton-related emails. I should tell the people investigating that stuff about this."
Agents realize they need a new warrant to proceed further with those emails, since they aren't related to the sexting investigation. They tell Comey this.
Comey sends his letter to Congress, wanting to protect his reputation and the FBI's reputation so nobody can claim he mislead Congress earlier when he said the investigation was over in case anything comes up now. He is perhaps deliberately vague out of malice, vague because he doesn't feel he should say more in the middle of an investigation, or vague because he somehow failed to anticipate the response to his letter, even though previously available evidence points to him not being that utterly incompetent at life.
[The world seems to burn]
Clinton tells Comey to put up or shut up.
Comey perhaps feels weird about what he's done and writes a note to everyone at the FBI, explaining that he felt he had to say something publicly, but also wanted to "strike that balance" between disclosure and being misleading.
posted by zachlipton at 9:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [41 favorites]

if anyone other than Hillary in the state department was using a private email server, they'd be fired

Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former State employee under Clinton, wrote to Thomas Friedman:

“OTR, EVERYONE I knew at State used our private email (I used Princeton) when we were out of the office except for our blackberries, which were State issued) because it was so incredibly clunky and difficult to get onto the State system when we were not in the office."

posted by xyzzy at 9:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [29 favorites]

(and in fact it did get an ambassador in quite a bit of trouble)

A fact which is not mentioned in that link. Don't link things unless you read them first and make sure they actually say what you think they do. Because you are wasting my time having me read them.
posted by Zalzidrax at 9:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

To recap this fast moving story:
- The emails were not sent by or to Hillary
- They may be duplicates of emails already examined
- Comey and others have yet to look at or examine the emails
- There is no expectation that these will result in any change to the findings of the investigation

This is rapidly turning into one more nothing burger.
posted by humanfont at 9:08 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

Seriously? I can't believe we're still rehashing the email shit. Call me if anything new turns up. Seems like it won't.

Huma Abedin must be so profoundly hating her life choices about now.
posted by Miko at 9:09 PM on October 28, 2016 [28 favorites]

WATCH: MSNBC Confirms Trump’s Video Interview Claiming Relationship To Putin Is Real

2013 comes back to haunt Donald.
posted by Talez at 9:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [16 favorites]

- The emails were not sent by or to Hillary

I've got to sort of walk this back a bit. Different publications are reporting very different things here, from not sent to/from Clinton to yes sent to/from Clinton. This, of course, is the problem with the FBI director sending smoke signals and his agency then leaking to high hell: nobody has a clue.
posted by zachlipton at 9:14 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Woman Who Claims Trump Raped Her When She Was 13 Has Released Video. Here's What She Had to Say...

I wonder if this gains any traction.
posted by Talez at 9:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

A fact which is not mentioned in that link. Don't link things unless you read them first and make sure they actually say what you think they do. Because you are wasting my time having me read them.

I apologize, after reading again, it looks like one of the last of a number of charges of generall being incompetent was using commercial email servers. Which is another whole ball game then trying to run a secure private server to government standards. So, the point remains, it is still equivocation and exaggeration to say that this is related to Clinton's behavior at all.
posted by Zalzidrax at 9:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

And that's where we are in 2016. War of the Oppo Drops.

Personally I think we're ascribing too much agency to the campaigns in a lot of the so-called "oppo drops."
posted by kirkaracha at 9:24 PM on October 28, 2016 [7 favorites]

Noteworthy on the rape case: California has very recently removed its statute of limitations for criminal rape; that video looks solid enough to kick off those proceedings as well as the civil trial.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Wait, I just realized something. Chaffetz, who started this whole mess by falsely claiming the investigation was going to be reopened, is a Utah politician who has just recently declared for Trump and against MeFi's adopted own, Egg McMuffin. Clinton is close to Trump in the state, and I wonder if he promoted this as a bigger thing than it was specifically to affect the Utah race.
posted by corb at 9:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

You know, even with all of the oppo drops, the election is going exactly the way nearly everyone thought it would. Maybe they're not really driving everything.
posted by Mitrovarr at 9:27 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Nah, Chaffetz is just an asshole.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

Perhaps it's just occasionally.

Printer setup's a pain.

But thinking more broadly: this campaign and these last few years tap (and current JCPL) has me thinking about the second- and third-order effects of ubiquitous technological permeation into our lives, and how it's exposing the cracks between the promise and the implementation. It covers the weaponisation of social media from MRA to goobergobs to state-funded trolling to frogmeme-fascism (and sleazy sexting); the broken security model that still partly assumes everyone lives with the everyday paranoia of an infosec pro; the capacity to fabricate narratives and purported evidence; the neverending onslaught of things that look like meaningful data, and when you look too long into the abyss....

So we joke about Skynet, while we're collectively creating -- with limited sense of agency -- an inverted version of The Matrix where hackers and shitposters fabricate a collective dystopian simulation, with maintenance provided by The IT Crowd.
posted by holgate at 9:28 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

Sounds like, from what's been brought out so far, that, at worst, it could lead to Huma having to step aside from the campaign, which seems unlikely at the moment and that Coney did actually try to act in reasonably good faith but got stuck in a tough position by the New York bureau threatening to release info without controls, which would put Coney and the service in a bad light and could have been worse for the Clinton campaign since they would have existed as rumors first, then later have to be acted on extending this whole mess. Some focused questioning of Coney by a few members of congress might force out some people from NYC as not acting in the interest of the Bureau or the country and draw out any partisan implications, should there be some, which could potentially embarrass Ryan and, even more, Chaffey.

Personally, as dreary as it's been, I'm fine with the examination of emails, not so much with how this release was handled, but in general since once the question about it was raised it needed to be seen through. I'd prefer of course if this same level of scrutiny was evenly applied to both parties. Heck, I'd even consider the establishment of a bureau of ethics and inquiry if they would be able to look into the dealings of all our senators and representatives equally to make sure our government was running as it should, legally and ethically. But that'll never happen so this is just another example of partisan investigations driving discourse rather than a legitimate attempt to maintain ethical standards overall. That so many people are taking it as more indicative of Clinton's ethics than politics in Washington is telling in that regard.
posted by gusottertrout at 9:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

If Coney can't keep his own staff under control, then he should be fired.
posted by Yowser at 9:32 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

More FL info:

@Redistrict:
At bookclosing, FL has added a net 929,327 voters since '12. Non-whites have accounted for 65% of that growth (39% H, 11% AA, 15% Other).

@Redistrict:
Since '12, FL has added a net 325,485 white voters & 603,842 non-white voters. Keep in mind, Obama's FL margin was 74,309 in '12.
posted by chris24 at 9:34 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

As a favor, could people differentiate HRCs better, since that's a common reference to Hillary too.

I can't see Coney sticking around long no matter what comes of this latest event.
posted by gusottertrout at 9:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [14 favorites]

Hi, when using the letters HRC could people try to keep in mind that Human Rights Commission and Hillary Rodham Clinton are two different things but have the same initials, cause this shit is confusing. Thanks.
posted by threeturtles at 9:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [39 favorites]

It seems to me that Comey might be immune from consequences in all this because it would be political kryptonite. But from my point of view, his failures are not just his moralizing and unprecedented press conference and terrible decision to write the vaguest of letters; the most telling failure is that he, the director of the damn FBI, is easily manipulated by threats of leaks from his own employees. That they would even threaten such a thing should be a firing offense, imho. The fact that he caved should be evidence that he is unfit.
posted by xyzzy at 9:36 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

I've always thought of HRC (Human Rights Campaign) as being the organization for people who wanted to show their support of equality by putting the world's smallest bumper sticker on their car.

I'm reading William Barber's The Third Reconstruction this month, and one of the things he stresses is the importance of being right even if, in the short term, you don't win. One of the examples he uses is John Marshal Harlan, the sole dissenter in Plessy v. Furgeson from 1896. Barber credits Harlan's public and recorded dissent as the groundwork for a great deal of 20th century Civil Rights law. Barber positions social justice activism as a multi-generational struggle, so being discerning about what's right vs. what's convenient is essential.

Which neatly encapsulates my ongoing frustration with the Human Rights Campaign, and the Gill Foundation this week. They're civil rights organizations that apparently chase short-term gains while handwaving that what's right will happen at some point in the future.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 9:37 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

Coney can't keep his own staff under control

And neither can Wiener.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:39 PM on October 28, 2016 [57 favorites]

I really don't understand why, when first confronted with the email scandal, Clinton didn't say something like:

"Yes, like many other non-technical high-level officials both in and out of government, I placed my own convenience ahead of proper security practices. I have certainly learned my lesson, but that's not enough. This is a cultural problem that is only becoming more important, and as President I will work to change the culture of Washington to ensure that every official with access to sensitive information has their methods of access to that information tightly controlled by professional computer security specialists who will be tasked with continuously keeping them compliant, without exception based on rank, technical ability or anything else."

Not only would this have been a forthright acceptance of responsibility for the error, it would have caused a conversation about how widespread these practices are, and gotten people talking about how she really isn't the only executive bypassing security protocols for the sake of convenience.

It seems like such an obvious way to turn a scandal into a plank in her platform, and I don't get why it wasn't her immediate response.
posted by contraption at 9:40 PM on October 28, 2016 [15 favorites]

"Wiener's staff has a knob on its end..." \pratchett
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 9:41 PM on October 28, 2016 [5 favorites]

Is it the law that the Secretary of State, cannot have private emails? Is every letter typed by a cabinet member subject to the scrutiny of the FBI? This question comes late, but hey, I had to ask. Then when other cabinet secretaries used the same system as Clinton I have to think that institutional abuse of women is a real thing. I can not stand Chaffetz, he is an abusive man, that revels in it, thinking it will bring him admiration, and ultimately higher office. He has no redeeming qualities as a human being. He is like a lot of yes men, who when your hear all their yeses all at once, sound and behave, like a pack of dogs.
posted by Oyéah at 9:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

@mattyglesias:
The only way the email story could get any worse for Clinton would be if some kind of actual wrongdoing were unearthed at some point.
posted by chris24 at 9:43 PM on October 28, 2016 [153 favorites]

The ideal situation for Chaffetz is for Hillary to win but enter the White House with more limited downballot gains and looming shadowclouds, so he and his pals can choke anything from the executive branch for another two years with Clinton Rules investigations, then make 2018's midterms a de facto impeachment referendum.

One thing that's perhaps been obscured by the Actual Orange Fascist is the extent to which the post-1994 Congressional GOP simply does not regard Dem presidents as legitimate, and has acted accordingly. People like Chaffetz (who arrived in '08) or the big '10 crowd have gone into work since taking the oath thinking "how can we shut down government today?"
posted by holgate at 9:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

"Comeys actions out of an abundance of caution make perfect sense if you have a profound bureaucratic myopia." — Josh Marshall
posted by My Dad at 9:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [3 favorites]

They are looking for personal wrongdoing. They are looking for an affair. They are looking for any little bit they can get a claw into. They are grasping at straws.
posted by Oyéah at 9:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Woman Who Claims Trump Raped Her When She Was 13 Has Released Video. Here's What She Had to Say...

I wonder if this gains any traction.

The video's been out since at least July, so... probably not, since it hasn't yet.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

It seems to me that Comey might be immune from consequences in all this because it would be political kryptonite.

I bet Obama fires him after the election. The fallout can't really impact Clinton because she isn't president yet (and they're going to be throwing everything they have at her anyway), and the fallout can't really harm Obama because he's leaving office anyway.
posted by Mitrovarr at 9:48 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Would have thought the definite article would have been a giveaway. As is the contention that it's a white man's club, which we know in the presidential context is Trump central?

I wouldn't go that far regarding The Human Rights Campaign. They're not the Log Cabin Republicans (although I think they declined to endorse Trump). And it looked to me that HRCamp volunteers were stumping hard for Clinton at Savannah Pride last week.

That doesn't mean they don't screw up when it comes to down-ticket endorsements, or when it comes to lobbying for specific laws.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 9:50 PM on October 28, 2016

So it sounds like the only thing new here is that Abedin sometimes used Wiener's computer?

Right. The FBI almost certainly had Huma Abedin's own computer, probably turned over to them voluntarily by her. Then, looking for illegals sexts on his computer, they realize she sometimes used it to print emails. Maybe there are some of the missing deleted emails! We'd better let people know and check them out. Oh yeah, we need a new and separate warrant to even look at them.

So not only is there no sign of anything sketchy, it's actually a low grade vein of ore, since really scandalous emails are probably not forwarded to another computer to be printed out.
posted by msalt at 9:52 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

But had Comey simply said all that clearly and slowly instead of sending a ridiculous letter and standing back while his agency leaked like mad, I might have not slammed my head repeatedly into my desk today.
posted by zachlipton at 9:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [8 favorites]

Woman Who Claims Trump Raped Her When She Was 13 Has Released Video. Here's What She Had to Say...

I was just going to proclaim my frustration and anger over the fact that Trump keeps saying Hillary shouldn't even be allowed to run due to all the [fake] criminal allegations against her, and that it needs to be dealt with before her term starts, yet he's the one with actual exisiting guilty judgements and an actual November 28 trial date for fraud, and, and a judge determined there's enough evidence to set a heating for whatever this horrible will be for December.

Trump's Mirror aside, is there a press embargo on these trials? I don't recall hearing any questions about it, not recently, maybe not ever. Meanwhile, MSNBC gives Trump entire blocks of air time to let lie about Hillary's "crimes." Come on, Joy, nail those surrogates!

I wish so hard we could make broadcasters defend their FCC licenses during an annual renewal reviews.
posted by Room 641-A at 10:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [24 favorites]

a thinkpiece entitled:

Could Orange Facism be as Harmful to America as Clown Communism has been for Venezuela?
posted by ethansr at 10:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

I am a HUGE fan of the @FBI. Which is why Comey's sloppiness is so angering - his screw up could destroy FBIs rep.
posted by My Dad at 10:04 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

This is a cultural problem that is only becoming more important, and as President I will work to change the culture of Washington to ensure that every official with access to sensitive information has their methods of access to that information tightly controlled by professional computer security specialists who will be tasked with continuously keeping them compliant, without exception based on rank, technical ability or anything else.

This is a lovely and principled thought, but the problem is that IT security gives so little thought to the user experience that it is almost impossible to comply without hamstringing productivity. My dad used to ask me to crack his laptop because IT restricted access to notepad. Hillary asked the freaking NSA for a secure access device and they said lol nah. State employees complained that accessing secure state systems remotely was too convoluted and nothing was done.

Overcoming user instigated barriers to security was by far my greatest challenge as a security professional, and the vast majority of the time my users were working around an unnecessarily inconvenient process, UX problem, or a lazy restriction that could be fixed with a more secure infrastructure. For example, my dad wasn't allowed to have notepad because it could be used to edit the registry, but a more granular security policy could have granted access to that application. Instead, I just cracked his laptop and gave him admin privileges.
posted by xyzzy at 10:10 PM on October 28, 2016 [36 favorites]

The national security story that should have legs is the Trump campaign's continued use of intelligence that likely came from Russian operatives.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 10:11 PM on October 28, 2016 [11 favorites]

Not only would this have been a forthright acceptance of responsibility for the error, it would have caused a conversation about how widespread these practices are, and gotten people talking about how she really isn't the only executive bypassing security protocols for the sake of convenience.

You are mistaking the issues. Use of the private email server was not the security issue. Use of private email systems is not prohibited. The issue was whether classified information was transferred on unsecured email systems regardless of whether those unsecured email systems were .GOV accounts or private accounts.

.GOV or private doesn't matter. Both are unapproved for classified information. The dispute is whether classified information was transmitted via email. Clinton claims it was not. The private server is irrelevant to that issue. People would be having the same argument even if she used a .GOV account as were her aides because those are unsecured accounts.

The only issue regarding her private server was its use for both private and government business. This isn't a legal issue and it is not a security issue and is not prohibit by law. It is an issue of practicality. At the time, Clinton figured that using one account would simplify her communications. But in the long run it complicated them because she did not anticipate the effort required to go through and separate those 60,000 emails into those business ones that should go to archives and those personal ones that should go to the bit bucket.

This miscalculation probably cost her $100,000 or more of lawyer fees to have someone go through all of her email. So when Clinton says it was a mistake, it was a mistake that seemed to save time and convenience in the short run but actually cost her more time and money in the long run. It was not a legal mistake. It was a logistics mistake.

So your comment about bypassing security protocols is misguided. She wasn't bypassing security protocols.
posted by JackFlash at 10:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [60 favorites]

This is a lovely and principled thought, but the problem is that IT security gives so little thought to the user experience that it is almost impossible to comply without hamstringing productivity.

I mean, it's not like the Secretary of Fucking State has any need for electronic communication outside Foggy Bottom. If she had to visit 112 countries for her job it'd be a different story.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:17 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

So not only is there no sign of anything sketchy, it's actually a low grade vein of ore, since really scandalous emails are probably not forwarded to another computer to be printed out.

Unless... what if Huma was printing them out for Hillary's Scrapbook of Wrongdoing?!
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 10:20 PM on October 28, 2016 [21 favorites]

The latest one is the draft our daughters fake-conscription "ready to die for Hillary's war in Syria" bullshit. That one came out of /pol/ two nights ago I believe and people have been running with it.

I'm Facebook friends with a black, female, ferociously anti-Trump veteran whose photo was used (without permission, obviously) in one of those "ads". She is fucking furious about the whole thing.
posted by Itaxpica at 10:21 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

If it'd been anyone else, she would have been fired. It looks to many people like our leadership is completely unaccountable.

I have some sympathy for her. IT security can be a lot like the police: stupid as hell.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 10:22 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Other people did do it. Powell and the entire Bush administration. Only they didn't comply with the record keeping requirements and deliberately deleted 22 million emails. Nobody fired or investigated them.

And sorry, but there are a metric shit-ton of things the boss can do in any field that Joe Blow can't get away with. Hardly indicative of raging unaccountability.
posted by chris24 at 10:26 PM on October 28, 2016 [61 favorites]

Hillary Is Haunted By Men’s Dicks Getting Them in Trouble

While Hillary Clinton has done plenty on her own to endanger her chances at winning the presidency, in the waning weeks of the 2016 campaign, her personal shortcomings aren’t dominating public discourse. Instead, men who don’t know how to properly manage their sexual whims are dominating public discourse.

posted by kirkaracha at 10:29 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

James Comey doesn't strike me as somebody who gets out of the office much.

Anyway, the calmest campaign pros right now seem to be the NeverTrumpers, so we'll see what the weekend brings.
posted by holgate at 10:31 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

I am faculty at a university where they have recently "upgraded" the email system to an unwieldy monstrosity. In order to get email on our personal phones, we were supposed to submit them for encryption. I don't have access to patient data or any data regulated by HIPAA. I am not submitting my personal phone to IT, where I have to sign off on the department being able to, not only access, but erase the entire contents of my phone. I feel for anyone working at any institution whose IT capabilities are so poorly resourced as to have staff purposely eluding the policies.
posted by Ima Sockpuppet at 10:35 PM on October 28, 2016 [25 favorites]

Many months ago, in conversation with one of the many Texas Republicans I know, we got to talking about the election. He was mad about the email thing and I told him, "Yeah, it's the usual corruption. It's wrong, and we should have better leaders than that. All of them do it. So if they burn her, I hope they burn all the rest of them too."

Guys, it's a problem when our leadership is unaccountable. This is what the banality of evil actually looks like. My first major disappointment with Obama? That he gave everyone in the previous administration a pass. Then I spent the next six or so years of his administration watching them reinforce most of the worst of the Bush years. The only exception I can think of is the banning of torture.

Like it or not, we live in an increadibly paternalistic culture. When mom/dad acts like the rules don't count for them, the kids learn to be the same way.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 10:40 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

I have assumed from the outset of this email flap that there is a robust network of federal employees using personal email accounts to do lots of informal governmental business, and that without that critical network much of the work of the federal government, especially the parts that need to move quickly, would slow to a crawl or just not get done.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:45 PM on October 28, 2016 [23 favorites]

When mom/dad acts like the rules don't count for them, the kids learn to be the same way.

If you think Trump will do a better job following the rules, vote for him instead.

Want a third option? Doesn't exist.
posted by Mitrovarr at 10:46 PM on October 28, 2016 [17 favorites]

In light of today's events, it's fascinating to revisit Politico's The Case Against James Comey, which came out last month:

This is the James Comey that so many have come to admire over the course of his long and distinguished career: a man of depth and compassion. There is every reason to believe that he comes by his convictions honestly. But there, perhaps, is the rub: In his zeal to deliver results that reflect his own deeply-held conception of justice, Comey has significantly eroded the self-restraint that constitutes our last check upon his exercise of power.

Whatever Comey’s motivations, this “ends-justify-the-means” approach to law enforcement carries profound risks—and troubling implications not only for the remainder of his tenure, but for the future of the agency he leads.

“I think there is a danger here,” says Akerman. “This is not something that can be countenanced. ... What [Comey] did goes totally contrary to our system of justice.”

Bonus fact: Comey opposed the Obama Administration's criminal justice reforms because he argued that harsh mandatory minimum sentences make it easier for law enforcement to threaten defendants into cooperating with law enforcement investigations or face draconian prison terms.

Bigger bonus fact: did you know that Comey was deputy special counsel to the U.S. Senate Whitewater Committee?
posted by zachlipton at 10:49 PM on October 28, 2016 [49 favorites]

The only thing Trump has talked about that got my interest was his talk around trade deals. Otherwise? He's a Republican for Christ's sake. Not my bag. Give me the hawkish, police state president.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 10:54 PM on October 28, 2016 [1 favorite]

IT security gives so little thought to the user experience that it is almost impossible to comply without hamstringing productivity.

I don't speak Linux, but I understand it allows much more granular controls than Windows. Of course, then you have to teach people how to use Linux and wean them off Gates' "I know what software you need and what it should do" approach to computers.

Most of the companies I've worked for, including those whose main task was processing huge collections of legal data, had atrocious security, because the corporate side of things had no idea how IT security works, and the get-stuff-done department was focused on productivity because salespeople were breathing down their necks with "do it now-now-now"--because absolutely nobody involved in the process (other than production department) had any idea what the security risks were.

Occasionally, IT would get a command from the higher-ups, and security locks of some sort would go into place for about a week, before someone in production sent back a memo, "hey, Client X has demanded we do [these things] and also grab data from [this website] but our security settings don't allow that... also, it needs to be done by tomorrow... Imma just throw this stuff on a flash drive and do it at home mmkay? lemme know when you've fixed the setting; stage 2 should be here next Thursday." And before next Thursday the restrictions were gone.

The fact that Clinton set up a private server instead of just using a gmail account speaks volumes about her commitment to security.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:55 PM on October 28, 2016 [26 favorites]

This isn't a legal issue and it is not a security issue and is not prohibit by law. It is an issue of practicality. At the time, Clinton figured that using one account would simplify her communications. But in the long run it complicated them because she did not anticipate the effort required to go through and separate those 60,000 emails into those business ones that should go to archives and those personal ones that should go to the bit bucket.

Or she was trying to dodge FOIA.
posted by andoatnp at 10:58 PM on October 28, 2016

Windows isn't really the problem as much as I hate to admit it. It's that good security is expensive. And the bosses, well, they won't do anything about it till a fire burns down a whole theater of people.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 11:00 PM on October 28, 2016 [12 favorites]

I just want to tell you both, good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by not_on_display at 11:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [2 favorites]

Or she was trying to dodge FOIA.

Curiously, Clinton is the only Secretary of State in history since the advent of email to fully comply with the FOIA and provide copies of her emails to the national archives.
posted by JackFlash at 11:07 PM on October 28, 2016 [140 favorites]

This is what the banality of evil actually looks like.

Really? Really? Allegedly improperly secured emails is what evil looks like? Come the fuck on.
posted by threeturtles at 11:13 PM on October 28, 2016 [86 favorites]

Well, allegedly improperly secured emails is certainly what banality looks like.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:25 PM on October 28, 2016 [54 favorites]

You forgot the banal part. Obscene per capita energy use in the US would fall under the same category.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 11:29 PM on October 28, 2016

Some footage of the homeless woman defending Trump's Hollywood star getting shoved to the ground and having her signs torn up.
posted by nicolas léonard sadi carnot at 11:36 PM on October 28, 2016

This is what the banality of evil actually looks like.

"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a personal email being deleted from a server - forever."?

Or maybe. Waterboarding. Sexual assault. Voter disenfranchisement. ...
posted by sebastienbailard at 11:38 PM on October 28, 2016 [19 favorites]

Those are all great examples.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 11:44 PM on October 28, 2016

This is what the banality of evil actually looks like.

Or that time when Hills hit "Reply All" instead of "Reply." The horror... the horror.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:50 PM on October 28, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jesus. Shoving homeless women. Yeah, way to claim the moral high ground.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:03 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Oh no, the e-mail thing most certainly is a good example of the banality of evil, just not in the way that Strange_Robinson means.

This investigation is being used to aid an *actual fascist* try to take control of our government and gut it from the inside. That's some straight up Nazi hijinks, as far as I'm concerned.

The media's complicity in this counts too. They could be talking about climate change, but no: it's fucking e-mails. They could be talking about the rise in hate crimes, but no: fucking e-mails. In less flattering news, they could be talking about the pipeline and Hillary's poor response, but no: fucking e-mails. E-mails and more e-mails instead of *anything* of substance.

That is absolutely one form banal evil can take: hyperfocus on pointless minutiae when actual horrors are occurring. And yes, the e-mails? Minutiae. Pointless. Both in this instance, and frankly? Generally. People getting all wide eyed about this strike me as painfully naive: 'obstructive IT department versus people attempting to work on a schedule' is a classic tale with no good ending that many of us have experienced. Prosecuting Colin Powell for this would have been stupid too, IMO.

I'm mostly sorry that the people who said she couldn't have a secure Blackberry were not simply fired one by one until someone said yes, and I feel it's long past time Comey was out on his fucking ass.
posted by mordax at 12:11 AM on October 29, 2016 [131 favorites]

WaPo: American Bar Association to publish controversial report on Trump being a ‘libel bully’

Story covers the back and forth on publishing/not publishing, and provides direct link to the article in question on Media Law.org
posted by valetta at 12:20 AM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

(This thread is too fresh to be Godwin'ed already. Maybe if we turned it off and back on again?)
posted by RedOrGreen at 12:20 AM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

I was strictly thinking the cool acceptance of corrupt leadership, I admit. To me, this whole election looks like the exceptional evil versus the banal evil. I really am sick of the lesser of two evils nature of US politics these days.

I like your version much better though.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 12:21 AM on October 29, 2016

Is it even possible to Godwin any thread about Trump running for President?
posted by Sara C. at 12:34 AM on October 29, 2016 [16 favorites]

Sara C., I think it's only appropriate to.
posted by msalt at 12:36 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

the lesser of two evils nature of US politics these days
Honestly, that's been the nature of US politics 'on-and-off' for most of our history (and more often 'on'). And we certainly haven't always picked the lesser. So you try to choose your battles for the ones that are winnable and cry yourself to sleep over the ones that aren't.
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:37 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Did anyone see that video of the homeless trump supporter getting harassed next to his hollywood star? I wish I hadn't watched it but it's par for the course for this fucking goddamn election. After voting today, I really wanted to pretend this thing was over but my god what a trainwreck.
posted by R.F.Simpson at 12:42 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Starting to get nervous about Clinton's numbers on 538. 80% isn't a remotely comfortable probability for me.

So, if it's comfort you want, look at the half dozen other reputable people doing stats journalism who give a higher percentage. Nate Silver (a) isn't a fucking seer and (b) (reading between the lines slightly) has calibrated his assumptions about the possibility of polling error in such a way that it's incredibly hard for his model to go above 90% for either candidate. While he dances around it a fair bit, this passage is telling "Most other models also assume that state-by-state outcomes are correlated to some degree, but based on their probability distributions, FiveThirtyEight’s seem to be more emphatic about this assumption, accounting for both the possibility a significant national polling error and other types of correlations, such as between states in different regions".

You're never going to get comfort from 538. Their model is far too cautious about polls for that.

But as I've said, Silver isn't magic, he doesn't know anything the other reputable people doing analysis don't. He is just one person with a model that has shown some success, among other comparatively successful models.
posted by howfar at 12:43 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Don't even get me started on how much I despise Hamilton

WEEHAWKEN. DAWN. GUNS. DRAWN.
posted by corb at 12:43 AM on October 29, 2016 [47 favorites]

Didn't that turn out badly the first time?
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:47 AM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

I was strictly thinking the cool acceptance of corrupt leadership, I admit.

I understand. I wouldn't characterize anybody as coolly accepting what's going on right now though - the one constant this election season is that everybody's brimming with rage and despair, we're just having some very heated differences of opinion about what we should be upset about and what we should do to fix it.

I think it may just look that way because what counts as corruption is a subjective judgment, so things that really sting to you are being shrugged off by a lot of people, while they're watching you do the same for their frustrations.

Upon preview, because I comment too slow for these threads:

Is it even possible to Godwin any thread about Trump running for President?

Not in a way that invalidates the thread, no. When honest to goodness fascists are about, it's an appropriate comparison to make.

Did anyone see that video of the homeless trump supporter getting harassed next to his hollywood star?

That's awful. :(
posted by mordax at 12:49 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

As brief respite from rage & despair may I offer FYA (For Your Amusement) two posts from Democratic Underground:
1. Fishing With James Comey On Hillary Pond
2. "When Your Stupid Twitter Poll Backfires & You Trigger Yourself"
posted by valetta at 12:58 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Don't even get me started on how much I despise Hamilton.

Back in college in 1998, I went to see Atari Teenage Riot. For some reason, there were some very preppy & drunk polisci majors at the bar. Have no idea why they were there since ATR wouldn't be their thing at all. Anyways, Alec Empire (lead singer/songwriter of ATR) was going off on a rant between songs. Ended with "Fuck the police! Fuck the government! Fuck capitalism!!!" The polisci guys were deeply amused. At the end of the "fucks", one of them yelled "You got it maaannn! Fuck Alexander Hamilton!"
posted by honestcoyote at 12:58 AM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

"the lesser of two evils nature of US politics these days"
Honestly, that's been the nature of US politics 'on-and-off' for most of our history

That's been the nature of human beings for all of human history. Some people are less evil than others, but nobody is perfect. All the Clinton "scandals" are just stones being cast by those who are not without sin themselves.
posted by OnceUponATime at 12:59 AM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

I'm not really looking for pure. What I would like are higher standards. At least Huey Long, you know, not Gordon Gekko
posted by Strange_Robinson at 1:30 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

> Don't even get me started on how much I despise Hamilton. How the grandfather of Wall Street gets made a hero these days boggles the mind. Every time it comes up, I have visions of Springtime with Hitler.

To be fair, though, Hamilton as portrayed by LMM isn't a hero, not exactly, but sort of an enterprising jackass. He only looks like a hero because "enterprising jackass" describes most of the other American founders as well.

I find myself shouting "counterrevolution! the constitutional convention was a counterrevolution!" during the bits about the federalist papers. And "WRONG SIDE YOU'RE ON THE WRONG SIDE SHUT UP HAMILTON" during the cabinet debate about whether to support France.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:41 AM on October 29, 2016 [24 favorites]

As far as I can tell if the standards were any higher, there literally wouldn't be anyone available to take the job. Or should we just start in the Senate and go down the list of All Americans until we get to the first person who has hasn't ever made any of the mistakes listed on the criteria sheet? (Of course every time you find a person their specific past mistakes get added to the sheet for next time, as we've seen with the email server thing.)
posted by threeturtles at 2:41 AM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

One day we will find a true ~~Scotsman~~ politician*. In the meantime, there is a lot of shit to get done.

* Applies only to Democrats; the Republican base is aroused by petty meanness, racist jingoism, criminal misconduct, rapey misogyny, and general malfeasance, so good luck there.
posted by maxwelton at 3:10 AM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

Pretty sure it's not Godwining when it's an actual white supremacist fascist madman.
posted by chris24 at 4:23 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Or she was trying to dodge FOIA.

Since they were coming from state, they're in the sender's account. And if it's outlook, on exchange.

Good luck trying to dodge FOIA with that going on.
posted by mikelieman at 4:29 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hamilton is such a New York City story (past and present) that of course it's in love with Wall Street. In the battle between banks and slaveholders, banks look like the good guys. Nobody was actually looking out for the repressed.
posted by rikschell at 4:29 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Don't even get me started on how much I despise Hamilton. How the grandfather of Wall Street gets made a hero these days boggles the mind. Every time it comes up, I have visions of Springtime with Hitler.

I'm in the "Burr should have done it the first time he had cause to demand satisfaction from Hamilton" camp, Tempered by Burr founding the core of Chase-Manhattan Bank. Overall, I'd buy Burr a drink.
posted by mikelieman at 4:38 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

I've always thought of HRC as being the organization for people who wanted to show their support of equality by putting the world's smallest bumper sticker on their car.

I've always thought of opposition or even lukewarm support to HRC on the grounds of equality as being the approach for people who think that the only thing you should be measured by in terms of your activism is what size bumper sticker you put on your car.

And not on whether you were e.g. an AIDS activist before it was cool and whether you had overseen a large step forward in domestic trans rights even while your job was supposed to be foreign affairs.
posted by Francis at 4:40 AM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Or she was trying to dodge FOIA.

Requesting a secure Blackberry first is a weird way to do that.
posted by chris24 at 4:41 AM on October 29, 2016 [41 favorites]

Francis, the "HRC" Halloween Jack was referring to is the Human Rights Campaign, not Hillary Rodham Clinton.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 4:42 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

@jelani9:
Not content to destroy his career and his marriage, Anthony Weiner's pervy fixations may now imperil democracy itself. Aim high, I suppose.
posted by chris24 at 4:53 AM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

This too will pass, and there will be a Madam President of the US.

But man, Comey is a piece of shit. How can he not be fired already? This is so obviously against every rule in the book - again!! I know it get all the conspiracy folks up in the red if he was fired, but it just seems there should be some sort of consequence for failing so badly.
posted by mumimor at 5:02 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

But man, Comey is a piece of shit. How can he not be fired already?

Upthread there was this "FBI agent overheard on a plane, deconstructing the internal office politics" comment, and while I seriously doubt the 'overheard on a plane' aspect, I completely accept the "NY Office is pissed over Eric Garner thing, and forcing Comey to do this is payback" aspect.

I'd put 20 on "discrete interval after election day, Comey resigns"
posted by mikelieman at 5:06 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

And. Fucking Office Politics. Talk about "banality of evil"
posted by mikelieman at 5:07 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

This is what the banality of evil actually looks like."

Belatedly, banality of evil refers to a series of banal, mindless, thought-terminating cliches that lead to the fucking Holocaust, so can we not?
posted by maxsparber at 5:15 AM on October 29, 2016 [26 favorites]

"tie your server down, tie your server down
lock those hackers out of doors, we don't need them making scores
tie your server down, tie your server down
make sure we're all scandal tight ..."
posted by pyramid termite at 5:20 AM on October 29, 2016

that lead to the fucking Holocaust, so can we not?

chris24: "Pretty sure it's not Godwining when it's an actual white supremacist fascist madman."

And there is a non-zero probability that the internal office-politics at the FBI might have a material outcome on this election, where there is an actual white supremacist fascist madman running for office.

I'm a Jew. I lost family in The Holocaust. I'm fucking terrified.
posted by mikelieman at 5:20 AM on October 29, 2016 [27 favorites]

With that said, GO VOTE! We all show up and vote, and it's Hillary Rodham Clinton 73 to 27.
posted by mikelieman at 5:21 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Oh, how I wish I could vote in y'alls election.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:23 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

that lead to the fucking Holocaust, so can we not?

this guy's talking about deporting 11 million people - he's getting damned close
posted by pyramid termite at 5:25 AM on October 29, 2016 [47 favorites]

The thing that gets me so, so, so angry about 'The Emails' is that the only reason this is happening is because she is a Clinton and a woman with political ambitions.

We know this would not be happening to this extent if she wasn't these things because one, The Republicans themselves said they only pushed it in order to bring her down and two, other men and adminstrations have not only used private server but actually got rid of millions of emails on purpose.
And yet crickets. No outrage. No wtf were they thinking. Just oh well, that was a long time ago but hey this is a CLINTON.

Was what Clinton do with her private server wrong? Yep
Did she need to be called out for it and told not good? Yep

But all this and for month and months and months. And even when the investigation shows 'not good, but not illegal' it doesn't stop.

This is what misogyny in action looks like.
posted by Jalliah at 5:54 AM on October 29, 2016 [78 favorites]

Christ, will the e-mail thing never die? I guess it's a shame that Trumpistas and undecideds skew blue-collar, because working a desk job it's pretty easy to see IT as power-mad tinpot dictators who don't bother to differentiate between the important and unimportant, or ever justify their pronouncements.

I'm at a university, and I'm on our college's tech-and-facilities committee, and in the past year we've fielded three policy changes from IT: first, a move from encrypting only sensitive information to whole-disk encryption on personal machines; second, a baroque change in the specific number of days emails are stored and which folders they're archived in; third, an attempted (likely to be thwarted) ban on personal printers. The first almost certainly enhances security for people who are bad at keeping their data organized, the second might be related to some FOIA issues but I really don't know, and the third is a naked power grab (IT gets no budget for print jobs which don't go to their printers). But we don't bother to differentiate these, and people work around them all the time. Any given act of resistance could be anything from a FERPA violation down to a harmless "fuck you" to our administration, and not telling us what's important leads a lot of folks to dismiss everything IT says as just getting up people's noses because they can. Talking to friends in the "real world", I get the impression corporate IT is not much better, and I doubt government is either.

The whole private-server/government-server thing is irrelevant from a security standpoint (if you are sending or storing secret data unencrypted on Internet-connected machines, you have already failed and it doesn't make a damn bit of difference who's running the server), which means it rises at best to the level of policy violation and is pretty easy for anyone who's dealt with IT pronunciamentos before to shrug at and try to find a workaround for.
posted by jackbishop at 6:03 AM on October 29, 2016 [26 favorites]

third is a naked power grab

Printers are a pretty common network attack vector as they often run old, unpatched firmware/operating systems. Imagine, in this world where important, older, higher ups and their secretarial staff still print out so many emails, what you could get from watching what passes through a printer.
posted by dis_integration at 6:08 AM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Clinton leads Trump 42 to 36 percent as he loses women's support ...
Reuters-15 hours ago

Emerson Polls Show Razor Thin Race Between Trump, Clinton in ...
Breitbart News-12 hours ago

Something something horserace bullshit Nate Silver is a punk. Robble robble.
posted by petebest at 6:08 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yeah, I was working with a friend and colleague, and she asked if I could find a document in a mail she sent me some time ago. I rummage in my mail box, and then reply: "no, it's from that time when I lost a years worth of mails because of something IT did while updating the server, don't you remember?", she goes, "oh yes, that's how I lost it too".
Then we shift to gossiping and talking about the election, and she is all for Hillary, except, she says: "there is something fishy about those emails". I just look at her and we both laugh out loud.
posted by mumimor at 6:14 AM on October 29, 2016 [44 favorites]

When the first Veritas tapes came out, I wondered if Mrs Clinton would make a public denunciation of the kind of tactics Foval et al engaged in. Tricky call - doing so would on the one hand would take the high ground, but it would also bring more attention to such tactics, throw those soldiers under the bus, and possibly discourage other free lancers from doing whatever it took to win this motherfucker.

With the video of anti-Trumpers beating up a little old black lady vagrant, she's kind of lost the opportunity.

Less visceral but also interesting is the audio tape of her suggesting the US should intervene in other country's elections. Old, true, but still, it does add fuel to those who talk about stolen elections.

Whether any of this (or if Assange's or Kim's or O'Keefe's promised updates) have any effect remains to be seen. True believers and good haters on both sides tend to forgive a lot, and ignore a lot, and focus on trivia.
posted by IndigoJones at 6:21 AM on October 29, 2016

Your company's IT staff are not responsible for the vast majority of the decision-making you see coming down from on high- it's mostly either "somebody above us demands this", "compliance with various laws and regulations demands this", or "this is necessary to secure/fix something because somebody above/below us won't otherwise stop doing this thing that endangers/disables the system". IT would love to sit back, read Reddit, and click Next to apply patches. They're not messing with you for the fun of it.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:23 AM on October 29, 2016 [24 favorites]

today's electoral map
posted by farlukar at 6:34 AM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

When mom/dad acts like the rules don't count for them, the kids learn to be the same way.

Doesn't the email leak include Chelsea Clinton chewing out Bill for even just the appearance of impropriety?
posted by srboisvert at 6:37 AM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

A couple deleted. Let's not have a big derail on if the homeless woman Trump star thing seems like it was / wasn't staged. If there's more actual info from reliable sources, links are fine.
posted by taz (staff) at 6:43 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

When the first Veritas tapes came out,

Am I the only IT guy who had to read this twice?
posted by mikelieman at 6:44 AM on October 29, 2016 [16 favorites]

They're not messing with you for the fun of it.

Unless it's New Head Of IT With Their Own Way Of Doing Things, or A Deal To Use Tech So Bad There's Either Massive Corruption, Massive Stupidity, Or Both. Or 'You can have safe, or you can have useful. Pick one' (which usually ends up neither - vide HRC).

Frankly, I doubt most organisations then or now would survive an aggressive security audit. As was said upthread - the only way this could be worse for Hillary would be if some evidence of actual wrongdoing emerged.
posted by Devonian at 6:47 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

L.A.'s Scariest Halloween Display Is Our Dystopian Future
posted by Room 641-A at 6:50 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

October 27, 2016 - Clinton Catches Trump For Ties In Georgia, Iowa; She's Up In North Carolina And Running Away In Virginia Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds Quinnipiac

GEORGIA: Trump 44 - Clinton 43, Johnson 8
IOWA: Clinton 44 - Trump 44, Johnson 4
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 43, Johnson 5
VIRGINIA: Clinton 50 - Trump 38, Johnson 4
posted by petebest at 6:50 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Can we all just agree to spell out HRC (at least in first use) in our comments rather than using the acronym?

Or think twice about using acronyms at all, except in truly obvious cases? I don't spend a lot of time on politically focused discussion groups or Political Twitter or whathaveyou and as a result there are quite a few comments in these threads that are completely content free for me since somebody couldn't be bothered to type an extra 10 or 12 letters when punching in a comment. I mean, I know that those are some of the most plugged-in people here and I am grateful that their contributions to these threads are super-informative -- but they could be even more so if they committed to making themselves absolutely clear for non political junkies like me.
posted by Mothlight at 6:50 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

I doubt most organisations then or now would survive an aggressive security audit.

I have, oh, 30 years of IT security auditing experience, although since college I've only worn a White Hat, and I can say that in my professional opinion that most organizations would not survive any sort of security audit more intensive than say, signing off on PCI compliance.

An unnamed client JUST IMPLEMENTED encryption for emailing credit card transactions. Good on them, I guess...
posted by mikelieman at 6:51 AM on October 29, 2016 [12 favorites]

The email thing reminds me of when my car had been broken into. Nothing of real worth was stolen. The worst thing was the shattered side window. So I took it in to get repaired, paid the money, and moved on with my life. One thing I discovered, though, was that those tiny pieces of shattered window glass get everywhere, and it seemed like every two or three weeks I was finding little bits of glass when I thought I had cleaned them all up.

Republicans keep finding those little shards and get angry all over again even though the root cause was finished and done with a looooong time ago.

There. I found the perfect metaphor. Now I'm going into hibernation until this shit storm is over. G'night, folks!
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 6:59 AM on October 29, 2016 [80 favorites]

JAMES COMEY BROKE WITH LORETTA LYNCH AND JUSTICE DEPARTMENT TRADITION

Comey was more concerned about remaining in good standing with Republicans than actually influencing the election. Josh Marshall saying Comey may have even been pressured by Chafettz to write Congress. If that's what happened, he has to be gone, after the election even. Even if he didn't bow to explicit pressure, a President Clinton cannot keep him. The most charitable interpretation is he broke with longstanding policy and the Attorney General out of naive recklessness. The other reading is he was pressured by Republican congressmen to influence the election, and did so. Either is disqualifying.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:00 AM on October 29, 2016 [37 favorites]

The emails seem really trivial to me given that the last Republican administration:

1: Falsified intelligence to support a war.
2. Outed a CIA operative to a reporter as political retribution.
3. Intentionally destroyed records to get around record-keeping obligations.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 7:02 AM on October 29, 2016 [51 favorites]

given that the last Republican administration:

Doesn't count, IOKIYAR.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:03 AM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

The emails seem really trivial to me given that the last Republican administration:

That list doesn't even get us started. The Bush Admin was a regime of torture, for gods sake. Not to mention AG Gonzalez's use of the justice department as a political arm. And Scooter Libby? And on, and on, and on. The Bush Admin was a cornucopia of prosecutable scandals and somehow W just gee-whiz aww-shucksed his way into a retirement of acrylics and ranching. If the media and the congress had the same scale of outrage over Bush's problem as they do over this incredibly insignificant Clinton scandal, we would've been at a constant DEFCON 9000 RED ALERT status with Drudge's page nothing but a hamster-dance wall of siren gifs. I just don't get it. I mean, I get it, politricks and all, but I don't get it.
posted by dis_integration at 7:12 AM on October 29, 2016 [37 favorites]

Doesn't count, IOKIYAR.

I was going to post a link to Elizabeth de la Varga's excellent mock-indictment of Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Powell, et. al. for violating 18 USC 371 but then outrage fatigue set in.
posted by mikelieman at 7:12 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

And on, and on, and on.

And a special "FUCK YOU" to John Woo...
posted by mikelieman at 7:13 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

An unnamed client JUST IMPLEMENTED encryption for emailing credit card transactions. Good on them, I guess...

You just reminded me of the time back in the late 90s/early 2000s when I was looking over a client's code that I was having to update. In it, in a system that was handling some pretty sensitive data, someone had hand-rolled his own encryption algorithm. I didn't spend too long looking at it because I was working on a different piece, but I seem to remember it wasn't a whole lot better than a Caesar shift.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 7:15 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

And a special "FUCK YOU" to John Woo...

Face Off was certainly a prosecutable offense, but this might be a little hard on John Woo.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:18 AM on October 29, 2016 [33 favorites]

Face Off was certainly a prosecutable offense, but this might be a little hard on John Woo.

Indeed. John Yoo is the piece of shit I meant to denounce. My bad.
posted by mikelieman at 7:20 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

And a special "FUCK YOU" to John Woo...

Errrrr do you mean John Yoo?
posted by Talez at 7:20 AM on October 29, 2016

Meanwhile, total Clinton endorsements from newspapers, magazines, and periodicals now number 320. These include 71 with a circulation of 100,000 or greater, 43 that endorsed Mitt Romney four years ago, and many, many instantly recognizable names such as The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Houston Chronicle, The Washington Post, The San Jose Mercury News, The Boston Globe, The New Yorker, Vogue, and Wired.

Donald Trump has 7 endorsements, only one of which (the Sheldon Adelson-owned Las Vegas Review-Journal) has a circulation above 100,000. To get to those 7 endorsements, it is necessary to include such papers as the Antelope Valley Press, The Hillsboro Ohio Times-Gazette, and the Waxahachie Daily Light.

This is in contrast to the 16 periodicals that have endorsed "anybody but Donald Trump", which includes USA Today (circulation 3,866,000), The Fort-Worth Star Telegram (circulation 298,000), and the Deseret News (circulation 102,000). While Trump has finally exceeded the number of endorsements for Gary Johnson, which come in at 6, Johnson has gotten endorsements from three newspapers with a circulation above 100,000 and the combined circulation of the publications endorsing Johnson beat those endorsing Trump by a factor of about 3 to 1.
posted by kyrademon at 7:25 AM on October 29, 2016 [38 favorites]

Police to interview Hollywood star woman

The videotape prompted headlines on conservative news sites, such as Breitbart News, and several calls to police asking why they did not intervene. LAPD Officer Tony Im said Friday that police would write up a misdemeanor battery report on behalf of the woman, using the video and information they obtained from her at another confrontation in Hollywood on Wednesday.

On that day, Im said, the woman also incited the crowd with what he called racial slurs. Police from the Hollywood station went to the scene and “kept the peace,” he said.

Police took down her name and Los Angeles address at the time, but Im did not have the information available for release. He said police would visit the address she gave to interview her.

[Emphasis added]
posted by petebest at 7:27 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

From Hillary's Facebook page: "One day I can be president, too."
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:42 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Early voting report in Florida. No wait, in and out in 10 minutes since we pretty much memorized the ballot this week. One lone woman dressed in black and pink with a pink boa and cowboy hat holding a "Women for Trump" sign said hi to us as we walked in. Our county has early voting at all public libraries 7a-7p 7 days a week from 10/24 though 11/6.

Afterwards, we went to donate blood (apparently it was civic duty day in the Holly house) and the young woman checking my vitals asked me about my "I Voted" sticker. She had no idea we had early voting and said she didn't think she was going to vote since "they're going to elect who they want anyway" (I wasn't sure who "they" were), but I told her that while it probably seems that way, this election was super super important. That led to a conversation that ended with her checking her registration status on my phone, taking the sample ballot I had in the car along with my name and number and all the early voting info. She's all in for Hillary and voting this afternoon after work!
posted by hollygoheavy at 7:47 AM on October 29, 2016 [181 favorites]

Greater Boston MA and Trump supporters are out in force on the main corner in town. Good to see the most liberal places in the nation aren't immune to these fascist fucks.
posted by Talez at 7:50 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Greg Sargent: This is how GOP hype-ahead-of-the-facts gets rewarded by media's willful perpetuation of smoke/fire effect. Zero penalty. Only upside.

More Sargent: James Comey needs to clean up his mess.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:53 AM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Gabriel Sherman on the final days of the Trump Campaign includes this charming quote:

When I asked one senior Trump adviser to describe the scene inside, he responded: “Think of the bunker right before Hitler killed himself. Donald’s in denial. They’re all in denial.”

Campaign 101: Maybe don't compare your candidate to Hitler even when everyone else is comparing your candidate to Hitler.
posted by acidic at 8:08 AM on October 29, 2016 [149 favorites]

Talez, I'm metro west, and I too am surprised by the number of affirmative Trump signs/bumper stickers I see. Though most of what I see though is anti-Hillary rather than pro-Trump. There's a huge banner on a neighborhood arterial at the Brookline/Newton line saying "Hillary for Prison"; I was yelled at in the parking lot of my town's library, on the very day that I put a Hillary bumper sticker on my car, by a dude practically foaming at the mouth about Benghazi.

Also, a neighbor down the street who I'm linked to on FB has been increasingly sharing conspiracy-minded anti-Hillary stuff, like those ridiculous "expose" videos. That latter one is mystifying to me--the guy seems smart and grounded and all, and it's like, you can't critically assess the source, dude?
posted by Sublimity at 8:09 AM on October 29, 2016

Final Days

Trump’s advisers are working hard to plan their own futures while riding out the roller-coaster end of the campaign.
...
To hear Kellyanne Conway talk about managing her boss is to listen to a mother of four who has had ample experience with unruly toddlers. Instead of criticizing Trump’s angry tweets, for instance, she suggested that he also include a few positive ones. “You had these people saying, ‘Delete the app! Stop tweeting!’ ” she recalled. “I would say, ‘Here are a couple of cool things we should tweet today.’ It’s like saying to someone, ‘How about having two brownies and not six?’”

posted by kirkaracha at 8:10 AM on October 29, 2016 [22 favorites]

Payback? Russia Gets Hacked, Revealing Putin Aide's Secrets Surprise, they're behind Ukraine after all.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:20 AM on October 29, 2016 [26 favorites]

Larry Sabato's latest has a color for "leans McMullin"
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:22 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Talez, I'm metro west, and I too am surprised by the number of affirmative Trump signs/bumper stickers I see. Though most of what I see though is anti-Hillary rather than pro-Trump. There's a huge banner on a neighborhood arterial at the Brookline/Newton line saying "Hillary for Prison"; I was yelled at in the parking lot of my town's library, on the very day that I put a Hillary bumper sticker on my car, by a dude practically foaming at the mouth about Benghazi.

The only thing that makes me feel better (aside from flipping off one of the chucklefucks in response to those "you know what's up" shibboleth style approval nods that white guys do as I drove past him) is that Trump people are standing on street corners in the 4th bluest state in the union while Hillary people are busy knocking on doors in New Hampshire.
posted by Talez at 8:25 AM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

Payback? Russia Gets Hacked, Revealing Putin Aide's Secrets Surprise, they're behind Ukraine after all.

Favorited in no small part because the first line of the article is, "Karma, it turns out, is a borscht."
posted by ActingTheGoat at 8:27 AM on October 29, 2016 [25 favorites]

Face Off was certainly a prosecutable offense,

Pistols at dawn, sir.
posted by soundguy99 at 8:40 AM on October 29, 2016 [11 favorites]

I'm in the "Burr should have done it the first time he had cause

When he suckered Hamilton into signing off on a clean-water idea that turned out to be a bank for Burr? I'm all on Hams side on that one.
posted by corb at 8:45 AM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Karma is a beet soup?
posted by Too-Ticky at 8:50 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

I must confess that I, regarding the current foofarah, am decidedly underwhelmed. You may now return to your collective hyperventilation.
posted by y2karl at 8:51 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Pistols at dawn, sir.

Regret to inform the standard MetaFilter duel is broadswords in a pit, Abe Lincoln-style.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:53 AM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

My job is a quasi-technical position directly in between end users and central IT. It's infuriating from both sides, and at the same time I see both sides' points. Our users are by and large not technical people. Many are brilliant, experts in their fields, way smarter than I will ever be, but they don't know shit about computers, they just want them to work the way they need them to. On the other side, IT is tasked with herding a tremendous amount of cats, whenever anything goes wrong they get blamed even if it had nothing to do with them, and when things go right, it's invisible and no one thanks them. The central IT leadership seems to have responded to this state of affairs by turning the department into a heavily armed silo.If they tell you anything about their internal decision-making processes, they have to kill you. They won't even share an org chart, so no one has any idea who is actually in charge of what. And when it comes to security, they have basically decided that the answer is no before anyone has even asked the question. Which makes it hard to do my job of introducing new technology to end users that help them solve their problems, or in cases where users have already identified what they need, getting that tool integrated into our infrastructure.

So, my view of the emails is that they're a symptom of the same war between the technical and non-technical staff that many large, diffuse organizations have. And you better bet that there are different rules for me vs. a provost where I work when it comes to dealing with this particular battleground and skirting various best practices.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:54 AM on October 29, 2016 [45 favorites]

Karma is a dish best served cold.
posted by mazola at 9:01 AM on October 29, 2016 [16 favorites]

Campaign 101: Maybe don't compare your candidate to Hitler even when everyone else is comparing your candidate to Hitler.

Heh. The NY Mag piece conjured up a vision of Trump as a latter-day Enver Hoxha mashup:

Trump: "We need more bunkers. I'm gonna build so many bunkers. Russia is better at bunkers. They have new bunkers. Our bunkers are old. We are old at bunkers." [fake, probably, but there's more than a week to go here]
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:02 AM on October 29, 2016

@NormOrnstein
Reading Comey's defensive apologia leaves me even more outraged. He violated his agency's own procedures to ingratiate himself w/ FBI agents
posted by chris24 at 9:07 AM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

My mom, who is a lawyer, just told me that she attended the training be a voters' rights protection volunteer, assigned to a polling place on election day. Because she lives in one of the cities in Ohio that has been mentioned as a possible target for voter intimidation by open-carry Trump supporters, the stakes are very high.

I'm often very proud of my mom, a lefty liberal who went into corporate law in the '80s to support her family, instead of legal aid, like she wanted. I have never been prouder of her than I am today.

Hey. that's cool, my Mom is also a lawyer in Ohio who's attending that training and... and... oh. And that's how I found out my sister was a mefite!
posted by longtime_lurker at 9:11 AM on October 29, 2016 [298 favorites]

The central IT leadership seems to have responded to this state of affairs by turning the department into a heavily armed silo

This is my experience with security-related departments of all flavors (IT, physical security, AT/FP, etc.) You can't ask them for help. You have to ask your own chain of command, all the way up to director level. Once you can get a top-down directive from the security director, prompted by agreement with his/her peers, for IT to "see what they can do to make X happen for ctmf", that's when you can maybe get something done.

Strangely enough, the branch of security-world that seems to be the easiest to work with is classifying authorities. If I want to take a fragment of some large classified document and do something unclassified with it, they have been very helpful in promptly either authorizing my piece as fine or helping me achieve my goal in a different way.
posted by ctmf at 9:18 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

I am in the organic bread place. There is a heavy guy, maybe 55, maybe 65 in ill health. He is white, shopping the day old stuff, drops his wallet, and complains of sciatica.
I say, "Oh something, something, sympathetic."
He says, "I can't hear you, wearing earbuds and listening to Alex Jones."
I say, "Oh I am sorry."
He says, "Oh it is just comedy to me."
I ask, "Did you vote?"
He says, "Yes, I voted for Trump."
I say, "Oh I am sorry. I voted for Hillary."
He says, "It's OK, as long as you voted."
posted by Oyéah at 9:22 AM on October 29, 2016 [17 favorites]

I bake my own bread
posted by Namlit at 9:25 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

The takeaway is Trump empowers him theoretically, and Hillary empowers me in reality.
posted by Oyéah at 9:26 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

I usually bake my own bread too, but I don't have a good sourdough starter right now, and that is the flavor of the fall. So. Sorry to digress.
posted by Oyéah at 9:27 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Early voting report, Humboldt Park, Chicago:

This was my first time early voting and I thought I would miss the pomp and circumstance of voting on election day, but I really didn't! There was a short (5-10 people) but steady line. Poll workers were organized and friendly, and everyone seemed to be in a good mood. Multiple spanish-speaking poll workers and definitely lots of Latinx voters. (Not surprising in a traditionally Puerto Rican neighborhood, but still nice to see.) A daughter was helping her spanish-speaking parents vote next to me. I overheard one of them say in Spanish what I think was "the President is the important one, right?" A white couple had their two little girls with them.

It was also the first time I've used the electronic ballot, and it seems to work pretty well. You can use your finger but the poll workers were recommending the stylus as it was easier. You confirm your choices at the end on the screen and then again as a paper receipt with all your selections printed out. I'm glad I had a paper copy of my sample ballot & all my notes with me, because there was zero cell service in the library. So if I had been counting on looking things up online on my phone I would have been SOL.
posted by misskaz at 9:27 AM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Boston has always had a robust white supremacist Masshole faction.

WEEI is Radio Masshole.

[Comey] violated his agency's own procedures to ingratiate himself w/ FBI agents

I think about how NBC's Pete Williams does his job behind the scenes, since he is an excellent and respected reporter. Is the problem here that the FBI operates by making cryptic public statements, then briefing anonymously from the top once the horse has bolted because people like Williams are trusted to do the explaining? Or is it that there's a culture of leaking from further down and fighting turf wars through friendly journos and sympathetic pols, as other reporting suggests?

Probably a mixture of both: no matter what, it comes across as a politically-conservative (because law! and! order!) culture of blabbermouths, similar to how the NY tabloids have an iffy co-dependent relationship with the NYPD, and this isn't a new thing at all.
posted by holgate at 9:31 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Robert Reich:

Yesterday I spoke with a former Republican member of Congress whom I’ve known for years.
Me: What do you think of your party’s nominee for president?
He: Trump is a maniac. He’s a clear and present danger to America.
Me: Have you said publicly that you won’t vote for him?
He (sheepishly): No.
Me: Why not?
He: I’m a coward.
Me: What do you mean?
He: I live in a state with a lot of Trump voters. Most Republican officials do.
Me: But you’re a former official. You're not running for Congress again. What are you afraid of?
He: I hate to admit it, but I’m afraid of them. Some of those Trumpistas are out of their fu*king minds.
Me: You mean you’re afraid for your own physical safety?
He: All it takes is one of them, you know.
Me: Wait a minute. Isn’t this how dictators and fascists have come to power in other nations? Respected leaders don’t dare take a stand.
He: At least I’m no Giuliani or Gingrich or Pence. I’m not a Trump enabler.
Me: I’ll give you that.
He: Let me tell you something. Most current and former Republican members of Congress are exactly like me. I talk with them. They think Trump is deplorable. And they think Giuliani and Gingrich are almost as bad. But they’re not gonna speak out. Some don’t want to end their political careers. Most don’t want to risk their lives. The Trump crowd is just too dangerous. Trump has whipped them up into a g*ddamn frenzy.

posted by gwint at 9:35 AM on October 29, 2016 [163 favorites]

"To hear Kellyanne Conway talk about managing her boss is to listen to a mother of four who has had ample experience with unruly toddlers."

I am thrilled to see the strides women have been able to make in the political arena during my lifetime, but a) it's not nearly enough and b) they still need to spend much too much time cleaning up after child-men who have been allowed to stay in this perpetual adolescence (if that) because they know that women have been conditioned to clean up their messes.

I wish I knew whether all this astoundingly blatant sexism would result in more people recognizing the degree of double standards and retrograde gender assumptions that women deal with on a regular basis instead of insisting that we got rid of sexism when women entered the workforce and got to wear pants and IUDs (you know, around the same time we ended racism?)

Or if its just going nudge the Overton window that much further to right, until we're nostalgic for the days of dog whistling instead of face-screaming abuse.

I don't know about the rest of you, but this election season is making me depressed as all fuck.
posted by bibliowench at 9:37 AM on October 29, 2016 [16 favorites]

I early voted in North Carolina yesterday. The site was surprisingly busy - probably 20 people voting and in line. I got in a little trouble for using my phone to look at a voters' guide (I need it to know which judges to vote for), but I gave the poll worker my best no nonsense attitude and he backed off. So yeah, bring a printout, for a variety of reasons.
posted by jeoc at 9:37 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

FOX: NEW EVIDENCE HILLARY KILLED LINCOLN
posted by philip-random at 9:37 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

"Final Days" article: As Bloomberg Businessweek recently reported, Trump’s son-in-law–cum–de facto campaign manager Jared Kushner is building a proprietary database of some 14 million email addresses and credit-card numbers of Trump supporters. That list could form the foundation of a new Trump media company. According to one Republican briefed on the talks, Kushner has approached Wall Street bankers and pitched ideas for media start-ups. “How do we monetize this?” he’s asked.

A deplorable frenzy tv.
posted by petebest at 9:43 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Early voting at my site in Boston yesterday was insane, hundreds of people in line and an hour wait in cold drizzle the entire time the station was open. This may be partly due to the fact that this is MA's first foray into early voting and they need to work out some kinks. And of course, there are no competitive races to vote on anyway apart from ballot questions, but still, enthusiasm around here seems very high.

The line was long enough for people to be legally (I guess) electioneering at the end of it. The Stein guy was pretty aggressively annoying.
posted by Turd Ferguson at 9:45 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

And whats with the separated-at-birth thing with Comey and Ashcroft?

He doesn't sing does he?
posted by petebest at 9:47 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Rampant voter fraud caught on tape in North Shore Boston today! [Fake]
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:48 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

That list of Trump folks is going to be a target for a lot of hackers.
posted by humanfont at 9:49 AM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

It's so weird hearing about long lines for elections. I don't think I've ever waited more than 10 minutes to vote even on election day, here in the SF Bay Area. That includes very rural polling places in the Santa Cruz mountains to downtown San Francisco.
posted by ryanrs at 9:50 AM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

I worked a polling place, a line that made a large serpentine s-curve thing, to shelter voters indoors, and then snaked out doors. This happens at rush hour on election day, and lunch hour.
posted by Oyéah at 9:55 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

GOTV canvassing report from NH:

People are still super excited and ready to vote for Hillary; most were just worried about long lines on election day (no early voting), and annoyed at Comey. Also, *tons* of volunteers out today--two weeks ago was a big bump up from the week before that, and today was close to double. That combined with town business trick-or-treating made the campaign HQ a mob scene.

Also, we got to see/meet/hear from Sean Astin who was so emotional and fired up it was amazing.

We got this, y'all.
posted by damayanti at 9:57 AM on October 29, 2016 [39 favorites]

Via Twitter: the moment Biden finds out that Anthony Weiner was involved with the FBI's reopening of the email case.
posted by teraflop at 9:58 AM on October 29, 2016 [46 favorites]

Who could have ever imagined we would have an election in which Wiener Probe would be a continuing headline? This is the Bizzaro World election. This is the unhealthy touch election.
posted by Oyéah at 10:00 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

I have done the thing which needed doing.

Clear skies in Austin, Temperate weather, no wait whatsoever at the Howson Library on Exposition blvd. Austinites GO DO THE THING NOW! Vote!
posted by Devils Rancher at 10:04 AM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

Remember when I said Comey may have done the political equivalent of shooting himself in the dick?

Justice officials warned FBI that Comey’s decision to update Congress was not consistent with department policy - WaPo
JAMES COMEY BROKE WITH LORETTA LYNCH AND JUSTICE DEPARTMENT TRADITION - New Yorker
Justice Dept. Strongly Discouraged Comey on Move in Clinton Email Case - NYT
Comey's disclosure shocks former prosecutors - Politico

The media equivalent of "man bleeding from self-inflicted gun shot to the groin".
posted by Talez at 10:11 AM on October 29, 2016 [49 favorites]

I had to check out of the thread last night, the anxiety was too much for me.

This weekend, Mr Sunny and I will print out our sample ballots and go vote. No better way to feel better!
posted by annsunny at 10:12 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

He: Let me tell you something. Most current and former Republican members of Congress are exactly like me. I talk with them. They think Trump is deplorable. And they think Giuliani and Gingrich are almost as bad. But they’re not gonna speak out. Some don’t want to end their political careers. Most don’t want to risk their lives. The Trump crowd is just too dangerous. Trump has whipped them up into a g*ddamn frenzy.

Yeah, Trump whipped them up. Not y'all dancing around Obama being a citizen or not. Not y'all demonizing Clinton to an absurd degree. Not y'all making absolute obstruction the order of the day. Not y'all putting Trey Fucking Gowdy in charge of stuff. Not y'all indulging every worst whim of the tea party crowd, standing up in public and saying dumbass bullshit you know is false but don't care because just barely enough of your supporters lap it up.

Yeah, it was all fiiiiiine until Trump whipped them up.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:14 AM on October 29, 2016 [172 favorites]

That list of Trump folks is going to be a target for a lot of hackers.

That's an interesting hypothetical: what's the intellectual property status of a database of personal (but mostly public) information that you rent to other organisations? Provenance and formal authorisation obviously matters here, since if you pay for DB access, there are going to be contractual restrictions on sharing it further.

And what would be the legal ramifications for TrumpOrg if it gets hacked? Data protection laws in the US are mostly a joke, but there'd surely be class-action lawyers who'd take that on.
posted by holgate at 10:18 AM on October 29, 2016

Wife and I early voted this morning. Northeast Florida. No waiting, fairly quiet, group of Trump supporters across the street waving at people as they pulled in to the parking lot.

Got done voting, waiting for my wife outside. A twentysomething guy is waiting beside me, he's grinning at the door. His girlfriend comes out smiling, wearing a First Time Voter sticker.

"How's it feel?" he asks.
"Great!" she says.

A guy comes out a moment later, looks them up and down and smiles. "Guess I should have worn blue today, yeah?"

There's hope.
posted by Mooski at 10:20 AM on October 29, 2016 [32 favorites]

This is the unhealthy touch election.

It's more than that. It's the sexism election. It's the, I-can't-keep-my-hands-outta-my-pants election. It's the boys will be boys election. And it's no fucking surprise that a 70 year old woman is having to clean up the sticky messes of her husband, her aides husband, and her opponent.
posted by Sophie1 at 10:21 AM on October 29, 2016 [93 favorites]

ryanrs: "It's so weird hearing about long lines for elections. I don't think I've ever waited more than 10 minutes to vote even on election day, here in the SF Bay Area. That includes very rural polling places in the Santa Cruz mountains to downtown San Francisco."

Same here in PA. In thirty-four years of voting, I've never waited more than ten minutes to vote. There really should be national standards for votings places per voting population.
posted by octothorpe at 10:29 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Slate has an interesting article about how tribalism will dull the effect of the email revelations. It may be wishful thinking, but I was more interested in this part:

The folk theory of American democracy is that citizens deliberate on the issues and choose a candidate. That is false. The truth, as political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels describe in Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government, is that voters are tribalistic. Their political allegiances come first, and their positions and beliefs follow. We’ve seen this with Donald Trump. Support for free trade is a longstanding belief within the GOP, but Trump is a major opponent, slamming most of the trade deals of the past 30 years. You would think that this would depress his support among Republican voters. It didn’t. Instead, those voters changed their views of trade. Their beliefs followed their affiliations, not the other way around.

posted by xyzzy at 10:36 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Relax, guys, and watch this Canada Lynx getting a good scratchin'.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:38 AM on October 29, 2016 [69 favorites]

Now don't you feel better?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:39 AM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

Cute, but I've watched this, so was slightly uneasy:

Never Turn Your Back on Big Cats

posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:41 AM on October 29, 2016 [11 favorites]

Now don't you feel better?

As my lovely wife would say: SCHO CUTE HUGE KITTY!

(Yes, btw; I do feel better)
posted by Mooski at 10:43 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Printers are a pretty common network attack vector as they often run old, unpatched firmware/operating systems. Imagine, in this world where important, older, higher ups and their secretarial staff still print out so many emails, what you could get from watching what passes through a printer.

Not very much apart from intra-office politics and risotto recipes? Hillary's server was an unclassified system. The disputed classified emails are in the single digits.
posted by ymgve at 10:45 AM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Their beliefs followed their affiliations, not the other way around.

Not to mention their views on "character".
Can you remember that it actually was a big issue whether a candidate had smoked a joint 20 years earlier or whether he inhaled or not? Not to mention extramarital affairs. Yeah, those were quaint times...

Today it's all "so what if he has a habit of forcing himself onto women or not paying contractors."

Not sure which one is better though. I wish there was some middle ground...
posted by sour cream at 10:46 AM on October 29, 2016 [14 favorites]

Not very much apart from intra-office politics and risotto recipes? Hillary's server was an unclassified system. The disputed classified emails are in the single digits.

That post isn't specifically about Hillary's system or the State Department.
posted by Pope Guilty at 10:53 AM on October 29, 2016

To be more specific, the reason printers are a good attack vector for attacking "normal" companies is that they mostly have a single internal network where everything happens.

The State Department, and thus by extension Clinton, has SIPRnet available which shares no computers, printers or cables (Maybe not even on the same power grid?) with anything connected to the internet. Everything classified happens there, and that leaves all the "boring" unclassified stuff for the internet-connected systems.
posted by ymgve at 10:55 AM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Let me tell you something. Most current and former Republican members of Congress are exactly like me. I talk with them. They think Trump is deplorable. And they think Giuliani and Gingrich are almost as bad. But they’re not gonna speak out. Some don’t want to end their political careers. Most don’t want to risk their lives. The Trump crowd is just too dangerous. Trump has whipped them up into a g*ddamn frenzy.

...yeah. So what, you want a medal?

I mean, on the one hand, good for acknowledging your own cowardice. Not that that tiny shred of self-knowledge is worth a lot if you're not going to change your behavior in the slightest.

You're scared about your *own* physical safety? You know what I care about? The physical safety of the people who are actually standing up to Trump and his mindless horde. I care about the safety of the woman who will very likely be the next President, because you've stood by silent while she's been treated as a treasonous killer by your own party. I care about the safety of the people who will end up the targets of random violence by frustrated, angry men who hate women and minorities.

The Republican leadership can go straight to hell. They don't get any credit for being secretly appalled by Trump and doing goddamn *nothing* to take a stand against the way he's whipped up the most violent, paranoid tendencies of his followers. The real heroes of this election are the nobodies who knock on doors and make phone calls and talk to their neighbors and slap those Clinton bumper stickers on their cars. The people in this thread who have been posting about taking part in phone banking and chatting with people they know...you are doing more for the well-being of this country than the entire Republican party right now, and I have so much respect for you.
posted by Salieri at 11:02 AM on October 29, 2016 [154 favorites]

DT, currently in Golden, CO: Coloradans are going to see a double digit hike. The number is so big, I'm not even going to tell you what it is! So big!
posted by Sophie1 at 11:07 AM on October 29, 2016

OMG! This American Life just came on, topic being the impending breakup of the Republican Party and name dropped James Lileks as a Trump fan wiith a podcast. There goes a Why I can't wtf on my part. I supposed I could have guessed but still...
posted by y2karl at 11:09 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Coloradans are going to see a double digit hike.

Plot twist: He means average temperature.
posted by Mooski at 11:11 AM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Also, we got to see/meet/hear from Sean Astin who was so emotional and fired up it was amazing.

Oh man! Was it like this? Or was it more like this? I could use a bit of both after the last couple days.
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:18 AM on October 29, 2016

Donald Trump Is Fulfilling His Destiny with 10 Days Left: Things are getting Biblical.

But here's the thing. For most of the campaign, Trump has been writing his own personal Revelation, but he generally has stopped at Chapter 20, when the unrighteous are judged and tossed into the lake of fire. He has his seven-headed beast (the current administration), his whore of Babylon (guess), and his four horsemen (immigration, crime, Isis, and Obamacare). They have all followed with him, as the old book puts it. But now, at the end of the campaign, he's is finishing his Revelation. He is selling them the walls of jasper and pounded gold, the place of eternal life and living water, his own New Jerusalem, undoubtedly with a large white grand piano in the lobby.

posted by homunculus at 11:19 AM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Early voting Chicago: Toman Library

No lines, friendly staff, voting machine worked perfectly for for me, wife's was cranky but worked just fine. Mine had a stylus, hers didn't that she saw.

They had about 20 machines.

Mostly Latino voters, but that is completely expected for the area.

NO STICKERS. Just I voted braclets. Made mine big so I can wear it till Nov. 8th.
posted by AlexiaSky at 11:22 AM on October 29, 2016 [14 favorites]

Josh Marshall: As I wrote yesterday, before we knew the bulk of the information uncovered over the last 24 hours, I still do not think (though my credulity is somewhat more strained) that Comey operated out of any partisan motive. But I do think his highest priority was protecting himself and the FBI from Republican criticism. The net effect was a colossal fuck up which I fear will have profound repercussions regardless of who wins the presidency in 10 days.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:26 AM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

Well, on the bright side (I've got to find a bright side), maybe this helps tamp down the violent "EVERYTHING IS RIGGED AGAINST US" crap after she curb-stomps him on November 8.
posted by saturday_morning at 11:30 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Pantsuit or a stately red dress, a la Queen Elizabeth II?

Lady Gaga meat dress, carved from the carcasses of Anthony Weiner, James Comey, and Steve Bannon
posted by ejs at 11:33 AM on October 29, 2016 [47 favorites]

Well, on the bright side (I've got to find a bright side), maybe this helps tamp down the violent "EVERYTHING IS RIGGED AGAINST US" crap after she curb-stomps him on November 8.

I mean, he accused postal workers or election officials of throwing out votes for him today, so not looking so likely.
posted by zachlipton at 11:33 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

For some reason, YouTube suggests me to click on the live stream of Trump's latest show. The suggestion is part of a bunch of Funny Fails videos. There's still hope, I'm saying.
posted by Namlit at 11:38 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

his own New Jerusalem

"We're going to build a wall, and it's going to weep like nothing you've ever seen. It will weep so hard, believe me" [fake]
posted by Room 641-A at 11:38 AM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

I mean, he accused postal workers or election officials of throwing out votes for him today, so not looking so likely.

Based on an obviously fake Twitter post

This is why [real] and [fake] tags are important, folks!
posted by ymgve at 11:39 AM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Wow that Final Days piece linked above really is good. If you are waiting for the Behind the Scenes books to come out, go read this as an appetizer.

The big take away for me is that Trump could give two shits about his faithful followers but Kushner is slavering at the idea of making money off them. Forget the Scion range of hotels-- Ivanka is going to come out with Trump Cola and Trump Chips. Maybe a nice line of Trump guns or Trump camping gear. Definitely more MAGA wear: windbreakers, sweat pants, tank tops, and sweatshirts.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 11:44 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

"The polls are rigged", says white female Trump supporter after she's arrested for voter fraud...
posted by Devonian at 11:46 AM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

@KellyannePolls:
Astonished by the all-out assault on Comey by Team Clinton. Suggesting he is a partisan interfering with the election is dangerous & unfair.

From the campaign that has been attacking Comey and the FBI as corrupt and part of the conspiracy against Trump since July. I will never understand people who want to give her a pass. Honestly, people doing evil for the nice paycheck are worse than true believers.
posted by chris24 at 11:46 AM on October 29, 2016 [46 favorites]

Honestly, people doing evil for the nice paycheck are worse than true believers.

She should know.
posted by Mitrovarr at 11:49 AM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

> "Support for free trade is a longstanding belief within the GOP, but Trump is a major opponent, slamming most of the trade deals of the past 30 years. You would think that this would depress his support among Republican voters. It didn’t. Instead, those voters changed their views of trade. Their beliefs followed their affiliations, not the other way around."

... No. It shows that the vast majority of Republican voters never actually gave a shit about the intricacies of trade deals one way or the other. But there are definitely "third rail" issues that voters actually vote on, which is why Trump is busy pretending he is now deeply against abortion.
posted by kyrademon at 11:53 AM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Conway isn't just doing it for the paycheck, she's been after the Clintons since the 90s.
posted by Yowser at 11:53 AM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

Forget the Scion range of hotels-- Ivanka is going to come out with Trump Cola and Trump Chips. Maybe a nice line of Trump guns or Trump camping gear.

Tactical Trump flashlights and pocket knives in matte black, digital camo or genuine 24k gold plate.
posted by contraption at 11:55 AM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

I mean, on the one hand, good for acknowledging your own cowardice. Not that that tiny shred of self-knowledge is worth a lot if you're not going to change your behavior in the slightest. You're scared about your *own* physical safety?

QFT. That's a textbook violation of the agreement we make when we choose leaders. You get all the perks, glory, and decision making power. In return, you're expected to take the personal risk when it comes time to do the hard thing on our behalf. He wants the good part without paying for it.

It's exactly what Simon Sinek is talking about in the video that's been making the rounds of the leadership-training circuit. (relevant bit at about 25:00)
posted by ctmf at 11:58 AM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

Conway isn't just doing it for the paycheck, she's been after the Clintons since the 90s.

Finding a way to extend a one-off job into a sustainable career. Smart, but doesn't mean she is or isn't a true believer.
posted by ctmf at 12:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

The Alex Jones and Donald Trump Survivalist Apprentice Show, coming soon to Breitbart TV. Real weapons, real kills.
posted by Yowser at 12:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

I got to vote early today in Florida. In a fitting coincidence, I was in a Supergirl costume when I got to cast my vote for the first woman president. A+ idea, would do again.
posted by PearlRose at 12:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [134 favorites]

True ctmf, i just wonder why the media has totally failed to report on Conway's decades-long hunt against Clinton. (other than Keith Olbermann)
posted by Yowser at 12:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Got a new email from the Hillary campaign:

...news broke yesterday that Trump is pouring in another $10 million of his own money into the final 10 days of this race -- and he’s going to use that to help pay for $25 million in new ads in battleground states.

Y'know, I might be concerned, except... Trump thinks Pennsylvania is a battleground state. And Maine. Not that there's no chance in hell of winning one of Maine's electoral votes, but I'd expect those dollars to be better spent in, say, Utah, where he's at risk of having his voters split off to Egg. (I suppose he thinks Utah is a lock.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

> "Smart, but doesn't mean she is or isn't a true believer."

Who cares? After a certain point, you are what you pretend to be.
posted by kyrademon at 12:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [25 favorites]

For most of the campaign, Trump has been writing his own personal Revelation, but he generally has stopped at Chapter 20

Odd, I thought he usually stopped at chapter 11.
posted by Twain Device at 12:13 PM on October 29, 2016 [58 favorites]

Farenthold's latest is up: Trump boasts about his philanthropy. But his giving falls short of his words. It features various occasions where he turned up at major charity events without being invited or giving a donation. Come for the photo of Trump and Guiliani doing the macarena, stay for the Boy Scout registration fee.

Afterward, Disney and Buchenholz recalled, Trump left without offering an explanation. Or a donation. Fisher was stuck in the audience. The charity spent months trying to repair its relationship with him.

“I mean, what’s wrong with you, man?” Disney recalled thinking of Trump, when it was over.

For as long as he has been rich and famous, Donald Trump has also wanted people to believe he is generous. He spent years constructing an image as a philanthropist by appearing at charity events and by making very public — even nationally televised — promises to give his own money away.

It was, in large part, a facade. A months-long investigation by The Washington Post has not been able to verify many of Trump’s boasts about his philanthropy.

Instead, throughout his life in the spotlight, whether as a businessman, television star or presidential candidate, The Post found that Trump had sought credit for charity he had not given — or claimed other people’s giving as his own.

posted by zachlipton at 12:17 PM on October 29, 2016 [41 favorites]

Let's maybe tone down the Biblical references like "soulless" and "snake". It's pretty messy as it is.
posted by Namlit at 12:18 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think he thinks that "Philantropy" is when you own only very few tiny stamps.
posted by Namlit at 12:20 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

With all the discussion of prominent Republican women and their faults or merits, I'd like to tip my hat to Nicolle Wallace. I have always found her to be principled and reasonable, and I enjoy her talking head segments from an intellectual standpoint. My appreciation for Ana Navarro is almost entirely visceral, though I think she is also a very smart and principled woman.
posted by xyzzy at 12:22 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Complaint asking DOJ to investigate Comey's conduct interfering into election has been filed.

If Comey’s actions were politically motivated, he would be in violation of the Hatch Act.
posted by petebest at 12:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

The DOJ complaint was filed by The Democratic Coalition Against Trump, which I think explains how little traction it is getting in the media. Democrats need to learn how to name their witch hunting organizations better. See: Judicial Watch.
posted by xyzzy at 12:28 PM on October 29, 2016 [11 favorites]

"The polls are rigged", says white female Trump supporter after she's arrested for voter fraud...

Called it. "I wasn’t planning on doing it twice, it was spur of the moment" is the kicker here: I can well imagine die-hard Trumpsters so worked up by the non-stop diet of "it's rigged!" that they're acting on self-induced panic, but instead of going down to the cities to check up on Those People Voting, they're going to try to offset the "obvious fraud" in their own lily-white communities.

This is going to be a test of voting systems in places where nobody typically bothers to look.
posted by holgate at 12:29 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Something I've been trying to express to disillusioned millennials toying with 3rd party voting is this: say youre a 28 year old right now who's had trouble getting into your chosen profession. Trump gets in the economy is going to crater again and probably hit a hard recession. When/if we come out of it you'll be too old to hire at entry level. I wouldn't hire a 38 year old developer with a CV full of nothing but barista and bar experience.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 12:30 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

I wouldn't hire a 38 year old developer with a CV full of nothing but barista and bar experience.

If you would hire a 23 year old developer with a CV full of nothing but barista and bar experience, but not a 38 year old developer with a CV full of nothing but barista and bar experience, you might not be violating the law (age discrimination generally applies only to people over 40), but you would still be kind of an ageist dick.
posted by dersins at 12:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [125 favorites]

I wouldn't hire a 38 year old developer with a CV full of nothing but barista and bar experience.

So you just straight-up admit to discriminating based on age? Or do you really mean you won't hire someone who got their education 10 years ago and didn't go anywhere with it?
posted by Mitrovarr at 12:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

Also on the collateral damage front: how much more bullshit is poor Human Abedin going to have to endure?
posted by Senor Cardgage at 12:35 PM on October 29, 2016 [14 favorites]

I wouldn't hire a 38 year old developer with a CV full of nothing but barista and bar experience.

Aww, that's so sad. I was promoted from the help desk to unix system administration when the unix guys noticed that they never got paged on the nights I was armed with sudo. And I got that help desk job after selling computers at Best Buy armed with nothing more than a GED. Sometimes people just need a chance to show what they can do.
posted by xyzzy at 12:35 PM on October 29, 2016 [114 favorites]

"Soulless" is not a biblical reference.

...got a point there. I noticed.
posted by Namlit at 12:36 PM on October 29, 2016

So you just straight-up admit to discriminating based on age? Or do you really mean you won't hire someone who got their education 10 years ago and didn't go anywhere with it?

This. Its very unlikely their skillset will be up to date and world-tested enough to be of use.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 12:36 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

But I thought there was a developer shortage.

^^^ sarcasm
posted by Yowser at 12:37 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

So you'd hire a 38 year old who was just trained, then?
posted by Mitrovarr at 12:38 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Of course. And we have. Perhaps I should have worded this all better.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 12:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

Tactical Trump flashlights and pocket knives in matte black, digital camo or genuine 24k gold plate

Trump commemorative coins will be a big thing. I got a mailer for one just last weekend. Silver-plated 1 1/2" diameter with Trump on both heads and tails. All for $4.98. They didn't say what the coin was made of, but at that price it had to be aluminum. Or plastic.
posted by teirnon at 12:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Can This Please the End of Republican Daddies in Democratic Administrations?
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [14 favorites]

Of course. And we have.

Well, all right then. But you should probably be more careful with your wording in the future.
posted by Mitrovarr at 12:40 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Fahrenthold's latest has a lot of fascinating new detail on Trump the Life-long Chiseller, done with his typical light touch:

The Trump Foundation gave $50,000 in 1995, and another $50,000 in 1999, to a nonprofit called the National Museum of Catholic Art and History....

The museum was housed for much of the 1990s in a former headquarters for “Fat Tony” Salerno of the Genovese crime family in East Harlem.

It also says a lot about what people can get away with under the auspices of 501(c)(3) status if nobody's looking hard.
posted by holgate at 12:44 PM on October 29, 2016 [23 favorites]

Wait, wait, wait, here is my latest whack conspiracy theory. Putin has the goods on Comey! You know, some goods. He got advised that his life is going to be a shopping cart, if he doesn't come up with something on Clinton. Now, I think, there is something very specific, they are looking for in the email haystack, with regard to Hillary. They already have the information, but it has to come out of the email pile, because otherwise, it is obviously a bought and paid for hack job. Yes, so it links to bedroom, or Benghazi, and either throws horrific shade, or a criminal complaint. Trump has paid his dues in Russia, no doubt.
posted by Oyéah at 12:45 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

God bless Fahrenthold. He's been doing the research and bringing the good stuff.

I found this anecdote particularly telling:

For instance, Res — the executive who had spent years leaning on Trump’s contractors to buy tables at his wife’s fundraisers — came to Trump to ask for a favor of her own.

“I got an award from a group called the Professional Women in Construction,” she recalled. There was a gala. There were tables. She’d sold a number to subcontractors she knew.

But, usually, the winning woman’s employer was the big spender, buying multiple tables or paying for high-level sponsorships. That was Trump.

He didn’t.

“He showed up at the door and bought one ticket,” said Lenore Janis, the leader of the Professional Women in Construction at the time. The ticket cost $100.

“And then he said to me, the president of the organization, ‘I have a few things that I want to say. I will need the microphone,’ ” Janis said.

She said no. But Trump found somebody who said yes. “He got up there and for 15 minutes he blew his own horn,” Janis said, so that anybody watching would think he’d written a big check.

Of course he would think nothing about throwing his weight around to talk about himself...at the gala for Professional Women in Construction.

OF COURSE.
posted by Salieri at 12:46 PM on October 29, 2016 [101 favorites]

I just hope that enough Trumpistas are arrested for trying to vote twice to leave too few at large to start their armed revolution. Also, in jail, thy can get to meet their hero.
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:50 PM on October 29, 2016

A Scandal Too Far? Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton, and a Test of Loyalty

NYT lifts the hood on the nothingburger grill, finds Weiners in it.

I thought the title was referring to her pants in that photo. Ay yi yi
posted by petebest at 12:50 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

It’s like saying to someone, ‘How about having two brownies and not six?’”

First they came skittles and I said nothing...

Then they came for tic-tacs and I said nothing....

Then they came for brownies and I said "DO NOT FUCK WITH BROWNIES!"
posted by srboisvert at 12:54 PM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

The important thing is that nobody was looking at Trump's charitable activities until he tried to cheat the vets as part of a ridiculous stunt when he refused to show up at a debate and ran his own event against it:

In January, Trump skipped a GOP primary debate in a feud with Fox News and held a televised fundraiser for veterans. In that broadcast, Trump said he’d personally donated to the cause: “Donald Trump gave $1 million,” he said.

Months later, The Post could find no evidence Trump had done so. Then, Corey Lewandowski — Trump’s campaign manager at the time — called to say the money had been given out. In private. No details. “He’s not going to share that information,” Lewandowski said.

In reality, at that point, Trump had given nothing.

Trump didn’t give away the $1 million until a few days later, as the news media sought to check Lewandowski’s false claim. Trump gave it all to the Marine Corps-Law Enforcement Foundation, which helps families of fallen Marines. Trump bristled at this reporter’s suggestion that he had only given the money away because the media was asking about it.

“You know, you’re a nasty guy. You’re really a nasty guy,” Trump said. “I gave out millions of dollars that I had no obligation to do.”

Farenthold and the Post were relentless at trying to track down where the money went after the Trump campaign kept stonewalling them. That's what led to broader questions about the Foundation and Trump's giving, culminating in this story today. Had he just given the money to veterans charities promptly and released a list of where it went, he could well have skated through the election with a general reputation as a philanthropist. But he got greedy and tried to weasel out of his pledge, and one reporter wasn't going to forgive him for that.
posted by zachlipton at 12:55 PM on October 29, 2016 [63 favorites]

Let's tone down the Biblical references...

Oh, for Christ's sake. Like it or not, the King James Bible is a great work of literature and part of your cultural heritage. Or do you have a problem with Ovid's Metamorphoses, too ? And speaking of that, this is almost as insane as referring to Classical Greek and Roman authors and philosophers as Old Dead White men. They weren't as far as they were concerned -- the cultural construct 'White' having yet to be invented for centuries yet.

And, anyhow, where do you get off trying to control other people's language ? Soulless and snakes are living concepts still and one doesn’t have to be a believer to get the thoughts behind them just because they are double plus ungood to you.
posted by y2karl at 12:56 PM on October 29, 2016 [61 favorites]

I love the early voting stories, and every one gets a favorite. Do it now! Tell your friends!

One interesting tidbit from CNN: the Clinton organization's GOTV operation is so organized that they had soft-support and converted Trump or Republican voters flagged and prioritized for earliest possible voting. They knew something like this was likely, and they were on it.
posted by msalt at 12:57 PM on October 29, 2016 [24 favorites]

MetaFilter: you should probably be more careful with your wording in the future.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

Those pants were awesome.
posted by angrycat at 1:00 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Here's the transcript on Trump about ballots being destroyed:

Like people say, "Oh, here is a ballot, bing! Here is another ballot, throw it away. Throw - oh, here is one I like. We'll keep that one." I have real problems. So get your ballots in. We're trying to have some pretty good supervision out there. We have a lot of people watching you people that collect the ballots. We've got a lot of people watching the people that collect the ballots.

Yes, you do, in fact, have real problems. Bing!
posted by zachlipton at 1:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Oy vey. I go take care of real life for one day and Hurricane Comey hits the teapot.
posted by bardophile at 1:08 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

y2karl, it's all fine, you know: I'm not living in that corner where you seem to suspect me hanging out, like, at all.
It just struck me that, as there's so much of the "she's the devil" type of stuff being strewn around these days, it might be a thought to refrain from doing the same kind the other way round, even if it's about Conway, whom I, too, dislike quite a lot.

This was anyway not about "trying to control" anyone's language, it was my opinion about someone else's wording.
posted by Namlit at 1:21 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

That NYT piece on Huma Abedin describes exactly the sort of self-inflicted wound that goes against the narrative that Hillary is solely a political creature. Any pure careerist would have shitcanned Huma after the Weiner documentary. It makes sense to protect an aide when she is being attacked over her mother or her husband, but Huma's decision to play along with that ill-advised (but amazeballs) doc was simple self-harm that had the capacity to damage Hillary's campaign. But no, Hillary is loyal to a fault, forever unwilling to correct her blind spots when it comes to loyalists in her camp.
posted by xyzzy at 1:22 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Hillary is loyal to a fault, forever unwilling to correct her blind spots when it comes to loyalists in her camp.

Or it could be that Hillary knows loyalty is a rare quality and one that has such value it can't be monetized or career-ified.
posted by fraula at 1:26 PM on October 29, 2016 [22 favorites]

Here is another ballot, throw it away.

It's not just that he's encouraging people to believe, there is widespread fraud: he's putting ideas in people's heads on how to commit fraud. I'm going to bet now that there'll be one county somewhere where that happens because a county board worker has a tizzy.

Hillary is loyal to a fault, forever unwilling to correct her blind spots when it comes to loyalists in her camp.

"Forever" is a bit blanket. I don't see Mark Penn anywhere near the campaign.
posted by holgate at 1:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Huma's decision to play along with that ill-advised (but amazeballs) doc was simple self-harm that had the capacity to damage Hillary's campaign.

She and Weiner maintain that she did not consent to be in the movie and that the filmmakers/studio did it against their wishes.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Has anyone commented that this is the David S. Pumpkin of October Surprises?
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Hillary knows loyalty is a rare quality and one that has such value it can't be monetized or careerified.

You don't get where Clinton has gotten as a woman in a misogynist system without building plenty of allies and showing you can be trusted to support them and vice versa. That, along with being good at what you do, is the only way to build a career if you're not part of the old boys club.
posted by gusottertrout at 1:41 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Has anyone commented that this is the David S. Pumpkin of October Surprises?

You don't demean David S. Pumpkins like that.

Any questions?
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:44 PM on October 29, 2016 [14 favorites]

Has anyone commented that this is the David S. Pumpkin of October Surprises?

No, I'm sorry, there isn't time.
posted by petebest at 1:44 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

If I were a Congress member I would be so satirical. I would start an investigation into whether, if you read Hillary's emails backwards you got Satanic messages.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:45 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Satanic Hilary is actually a thing Trumpers are concerned about, FWIW. They consider this a possibility as a conclusion from their careful observations of the motions of flies. [true, honest]
posted by Artw at 1:50 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Now I'm visualizing Linus in the pumpkin patch being confronted by David S.

"NOT a Great Pumpkin, not even a very good one." (But then, THAT'S THE JOKE)
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:51 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

I have studiously avoided talking politics with my conservative Alabamian dad this election. (My mom, despite often voting Republican, and also an Alabamian, told me months ago that she's voting for Hillary.) Dad's not your typical Alabama conservative (he's Catholic, for one thing, and worked for Senator Paul Simon for a summer during college, for another). Today, during an otherwise politics-free conversation to catch up on what's been going on this week, he said in passing that he's really tormented by the election, and that he was starting to think he might not vote at all.

I don't think I could convince him to be happy to vote for Clinton. But after our phone call, I was thinking that perhaps I could do something to help keep give him another option that would be proactive, but also not a vote for Trump. I thought about what I know about Dad's political opinions, and various things I've read on MeFi, and I did a little research about the official write-in candidates in Alabama.

I called him back. "Dad," I asked, "have you heard of a man named Evan McMullin?"
posted by ocherdraco at 1:52 PM on October 29, 2016 [65 favorites]

Satanic Hilary is actually a thing Trumpers are concerned about, FWIW. They consider this a possibility as a conclusion from their careful observations of the motions of flies.

You don't even need the flies if you start from the axiom, "Hillary Clinton is Evil" and go from there.
posted by mikelieman at 1:54 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

For what it's worth McMullin isn't on the ballot here in California. Wikipedia says he is not on the ballot in Alabama, either.
posted by Sara C. at 1:56 PM on October 29, 2016

I know. He's an official write-in candidate in Alabama. (Which is what I told my dad.)
posted by ocherdraco at 1:56 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

BREAKING NEWS HILLARY IS CORRUPT!!!!!! UNDERCOVER VIDEO STING CATCHES ILLEGAL CAMPAIGN FUNDS SOLICITED BY DEMOCR—wait, it was a Republican. Carry on.

The Intercept: Trump Super PAC Sting Shows How Citizens United Opened Door to Foreign Money
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:57 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

Huma's decision to play along with that ill-advised (but amazeballs) doc was simple self-harm that had the capacity to damage Hillary's campaign.

She and Weiner maintain that she did not consent to be in the movie and that the filmmakers/studio did it against their wishes.

Wait what. how does this work? Isn't that a lawsuit waiting to happen? And also what the EVER loving fuck??
posted by schadenfrau at 1:58 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Not to jump on one of my hobbyhorses or anything, but probably the best way to assess Kellyanne Conway is through the lens of her effects on the world, rather than through the lens of whatever abstract principles she may or may not hold. Ideals (or the absence of ideals) don't really matter except through how they're made material through actions in the world, and whatever Conway's ideals/absence of ideals are, the effects are clearly awful. Her Baghdad Bob schtick isn't going to win Trump the election, but it may be riling up violent white supremacists enough to help inspire them to take extra-electoral action after Trump's loss.

That aside: can I say that I've had the hardest time working up a proper hate-on for Trump lately? He's empty inside, he's dimwitted, and he appears to have no working theory of mind. His universe is tiny, because it doesn't extend past his own selfhood, and his own selfhood is maimed and limited. I don't think the man has ever gotten the chance to experience anything good about life.

I've spouted slogans like "wealth is a disease" a bunch, and I've intellectually grasped how capitalism maims the rich as well as the poor, but with Trump it's so viscerally obvious that his inheritance long ago snuffed out his human potential.

I have relatives who vote for Republicans out of an abiding respect for hierarchy, out of the idea that the rich deserve their power, that obedience to power is a crucial element of the good life, and that it would be unfair to both the powerful and the powerless to take away their wealth; unfair to the powerful because they deserve it, and unfair to the powerless because it takes away our chance to serve.

For my part, I think it is unfair to inflict either wealth or poverty on anyone. Both wealth and poverty strip life of its flavor.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [38 favorites]

Has anyone commented that this is the David S. Pumpkin of October Surprises?

10 days 'til the election. They can't all be winners.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [12 favorites]

It's a shame Huma was never a MeFite. One anonymous AskMe about her and her husband would have gotten a deafening chorus of "DTMFA"* from the assembled MetaMasses. Well, I suspect Hillary would've gotten much the same response.

*acronym for Dump The Mother Fucker Already
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Anthony Weiner Says His Wife Never Agreed to That Documentary [nyt]
posted by melissasaurus at 2:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

I'm still at 9:00 last night, but dropping down to the bottom just to say, Woo! ennui.bz AND clavdivs in one election thread!
posted by rabbitrabbit at 2:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

> I called him back. "Dad," I asked, "have you heard of a man named Evan McMullin?"

Are there any downballot races that your dad might negatively effect if he goes to the polls? That's why I'd never dream of having the McMullin Conversation with my conservative relatives...

(well, that and also tbf I'm pretty sure they consider Mormons to be devil-worshippers, so the conversation would be a non-starter anyway)
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh, my dad was going to the polls regardless. Downballot races are important to him. He was just going to abstain from the presidential race. I should note that he's not a Republican; though he usually votes for the Republican candidate in presidential elections, on local ones he's much more variable. (He's conservative in comparison to me, but much less conservative than your average Alabamian.)
posted by ocherdraco at 2:08 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Conway isn't just doing it for the paycheck, she's been after the Clintons since the 90s.

If I remember correctly, she, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, and the late Barbara Olson all came to prominence around the same time as anti-Clinton pundits in the late 1990s. It's also worth noting that Conway's husband was one of Paula Jones's advisors in her lawsuit against Bill Clinton.
posted by SisterHavana at 2:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Erica Garner responds to Clinton campaign's emails about her father.
She isn't happy.
posted by bardophile at 2:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump Super PAC Sting Shows How Citizens United Opened Door to Foreign Money

So it turns out that maybe all those emails to foreign VIPs weren't an accident, after all.
posted by Sara C. at 2:10 PM on October 29, 2016

Hamilton is such a New York City story

Enough with the Empire State overrepresentation in this election cycle!
posted by Apocryphon at 2:23 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

steals Anthony Weiner's time machine to gift Burr a modern pistol with which he could double-tap Hamilton

How about a Sten?
posted by mikelieman at 2:23 PM on October 29, 2016

Erica Garner responds to Clinton campaign's emails about her father.

I've been reading this a few times and I'm not quite seeing it. Someone thought Eric Garner should be mentioned in an op-ed about gun violence and someone else said basically "that makes no sense because he wasn't killed by gun violence" and that was it. Right?
posted by zachlipton at 2:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

steals Anthony Weiner's time machine to gift Burr a modern pistol with which he could double-tap Hamilton

I'm pretty sure you could get rich off a historical Hot Tub Time Machine remake set at the turn of the 19th century starring Anthony Weiner (because what else does he have to do at this point?)
posted by zachlipton at 2:26 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

> I've been reading this a few times and I'm not quite seeing it. Someone thought Eric Garner should be mentioned in an op-ed about gun violence and someone else said basically "that makes no sense because he wasn't killed by gun violence" and that was it.

yes and also it sucks a lot when politicians you don't agree with discuss whether or not they can co-opt the tragedy that's become your life's work for something that you don't particularly care about.

I think maybe rather than trying to determine whether that particular series of emails was either normal or terrible, we can just agree that it's both normal and terrible.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:27 PM on October 29, 2016 [12 favorites]

Clear skies in Austin, Temperate weather, no wait whatsoever at the Howson Library on Exposition blvd. Austinites GO DO THE THING NOW! Vote!
posted by Devils Rancher at 12:04 PM on October 29

Thanks for the tip DR! Went and early voted there, took about 10 minutes. Line was short but a constant stream of people were coming in. And no waiting to use the wheelchair accessible voting machine unlike my usual polling place. A+ A+ A+ HIGHLY RECOMMEND
posted by a humble nudibranch at 2:28 PM on October 29, 2016 [24 favorites]

How about a Sten?

Well, an AK-47 would be overkill.

The existence of that book blows my mind because Turtledove claimed he got the idea after another author claimed of cover art as historically inaccurate as Robert E. Lee holding an Uzi. Did he actually steal the idea from Harry Harrison? Or maybe that Harry travelled back in time to steal the idea from Turtledove first?
posted by Apocryphon at 2:28 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

This Brit went to a friend's for dinner tonight. Afterwards, my friend's partner started in on how there was "no difference" between Trump and Clinton, that both were "corrupt beyond belief" and how "a vote for Trump is a vote to change the status quo".

I'd like to thank the contributors to this and previous threads for the words that brought her round, finally, finally, to acknowledge that Clinton would be the only choice for an undecided not fond of anarchy.

Then she revealed she voted for Brexit. That's when I left.
posted by doornoise at 2:33 PM on October 29, 2016 [107 favorites]

Don't even get me started on how much I despise Hamilton. How the grandfather of Wall Street gets made a hero these days boggles the mind. Every time it comes up, I have visions of Springtime with Hitler.

I wonder if LMM and co. could pull off a musical about, say, Andrew Jackson. Subvert the American icon and all that. Get Sarah Vowell to cowrite the project. Or better yet, make a musical about Lafayette (which Jackson could still appear in!), but that wouldn't be as subversive. Wonder who would play von Steuben.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:35 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

A cousin of mine wants to know whether the US media is lying about Trump being behind in the polls. Thank you to all of you for educating me sufficiently about polls that I could confidently disabuse him of that notion.
posted by bardophile at 2:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

@rappingranny:
The last month of this stupid fucking election has been a cursed advent calendar you open up each day to a new bullshit surprise.
posted by Wordshore at 2:41 PM on October 29, 2016 [41 favorites]

I wonder if LMM and co. could pull off a musical about, say, Andrew Jackson.

Someone already did that.
posted by airish at 2:43 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

When the random "how about this?" suggestions between political campaigners are released to the ~~wild~~ public, you're going to find something to offend or insult just about everyone. That's the strategy of Wikileaks and their masters - to make Hillary more offensive to more people. Of course, a similar strategy couldn't be used against Trump because every offensive/insulting thing his staff suggests ends up as part of his stump speeches.

This is becoming normalized. This is regular political discourse from one of the nominees of a national political party.
The good news is No, it really isn't, or else a lot more Republicans would be following Deplorable Donald's lead rather than quietly hating him but afraid to speak up. Some of the Teabaggers are as just bad (but not even all of them) , but they've accomplished nothing more than annoying Paul Ryan (a laudable goal, but...). Depending on the size of Trump's electoral rejection, his campaign will be either an example of what NOT to do or of how to commit political suicide.

A cousin of mine wants to know whether the US media is lying about Trump being behind in the polls.
It's actually more likely they're lying about him having a snowball's chance in Hell, because (a) horserace coverage never succeeds when one horse is 25 lengths ahead and (b) Trump still has plenty of friends in The Media, most of whom are just better at concealing their racism and/or misogamy.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:49 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'm with Oneswellfoop on the normalization and invented hype train. Add the desperation for a horserace to the 'don't get complacent/send more money now!' Clinton trumpets and it's no wonder outsiders think Trump is some kind of actually legitimate threat. We're so disconnected from reality this election, it's just bizarre to me. So much for the internet helping with that.

As for dumping cherry picked info, definitely true. Did the Clinton PAC organizer hiring provocateur goons in order to create violence at Trump (or was it Sanders?) rallies turn out to be real or another inflated claim? I can't see much about it out there other than the first whiffs. Has it been investigated/dissected/discredited properly?
posted by rokusan at 3:00 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

This is becoming normalized. This is regular political discourse from one of the nominees of a national political party.

Becoming? He started with Mexicans are rapists a year ago. Seems like five. There's no way his flava of racist bullshit doesn't stay in circulation in politics after Nov 8. The GOP is frantically working on monetizing it now.

Money talks and as has been pointed out many a time here, the butt Trumpets are wealthier than your average voter.
posted by petebest at 3:02 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

So at his latest rally Trump is now directly accusing Loretta Lynch of a quid pro quo deal with Clinton to keep the FBI off her back.

This is becoming normalized. This is regular political discourse from one of the nominees of a national political party.

Well, the whole Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch tarmac meeting was a terrible idea from pretty much all points of view. I don't believe there was collusion but there are a lot of people who do, and Trump is going to use whatever ammunition he can.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 3:02 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

I wonder if LMM and co. could pull off a musical about, say, Andrew Jackson.

I'm partial to John and John's classic musical, myself: James K. Polk (our Eleventh President).

Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.
posted by rokusan at 3:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [22 favorites]

There's no way his flava of racist bullshit doesn't stay in circulation in politics after Nov 8. The GOP is frantically working on monetizing it now.
...and mostly failing at it. Not only is Trump's fundraising a joke, but even the safely-dogwhistling Koch Brothers are having more trouble getting money to throw at the GOP. So without an internal party coup, I see the Trumpians as personas-non-get-closer-than-a-ten-foot-pole after the election. And the Deplorable Donors list the alt-right is assembling now is totally NOT for Real Republicans.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:13 PM on October 29, 2016

For what it's worth McMullin isn't on the ballot here in California.

California is an In-n-Out state.
posted by rokusan at 3:16 PM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

Early voted today in a sleepy 'burb near Boston. We've never had to stand in a line to vote before - we usually go in on the morning of election day, before work, and cruise through in aoutb five minutes. Not so today - the place was packed.

I'm not a very good stander (or walker) so it was kind of painful, and the nice lady behind me with a cane was also toughing it out. My roomie wondered aloud, "I wonder if it was this busy all day?" and the nice lady in FRONT of us said, "Oh, yeah. My husband got here at 9am this morning, and it was way worse."

Got my sticker, and stuck it on the back of my phone. Got a lollipop, too, and I am now having magical-thinking-type-thoughts about the dangers of consuming it too early...
posted by invincible summer at 3:17 PM on October 29, 2016 [22 favorites]

California is an In-n-Out state.

And we wear Chucks not Ballies.
posted by Talez at 3:17 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

Raygun have a new t-shirt design out which is rather good.
posted by Wordshore at 3:18 PM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

I voted by mail, and a few days after I got a text confirming my ballot had been received and will be counted. Woo! Later that day I saw that the Bundy brothers had been acquitted. WTF? In short, Oregon is a land of contrasts.
posted by WordCannon at 3:18 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

Did the Clinton PAC organizer hiring provocateur goons in order to create violence at Trump (or was it Sanders?) rallies turn out to be real or another inflated claim?

Trump rallies, and it wasn't just inflated, it was completely false. Serial Hoax Perpetrator and Master of Disguise James O'Keefe managed to get a low-level Clinton staffer on camera speculating about how one could hypothetically start shit at Trump rallies by paying people to go in as agents provocateurs, and then used his signature trick of bad-faith editing to make it seem as if said staffer had admitted to actually doing it. It was spectacularly poor judgement on the part of that staffer to allow himself to be seen even talking about that idea in the abstract—very unprofessional of him—but that's as far as it went.

O'Keefe managed to lead someone into saying "Well sure, if you wanted to cause havoc you could always just give a handful of people $1,500 to start some mayhem at a Trump rally, but that would be nakedly criminal and so of course we'd never do that," and then did his usual hack job on the recording to make it look like there was really something there. And then Trump, because he has no reapect for truth, reality, or the democratic process, ran with that as if it were a real story and not something ginned-up by a known con man.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 3:19 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Leadership is about more than the legislation one sponsors and the votes one casts. On Thursday night, Senator Kirk’s comments about his opponent’s heritage were deeply offensive and racist. His attempt to use Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth’s race as a means to undermine her family’s American heritage and patriotism is beyond reprehensible. Yesterday, Senator Kirk tweeted an apology that failed to adequately address the real harm and magnitude of his words. So today, following a vote by our board’s committee, the Human Rights Campaign withdrew our support of Senator Kirk.

Chad Griffin, President of the Human Rights Campaign
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 3:20 PM on October 29, 2016 [44 favorites]

Long lines at the polling places in Boston today, but I'm sure that was for the all important Suffolk County Register of Deeds race :-).
posted by adamg at 3:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.

And with them we'll beat little Van, Van, Van, / Van is a used up man
posted by Apocryphon at 3:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

October 28, 2012: Romney and Ryan barnstorm Ohio as new poll shows tied race

“You guys, you got clear eyes, full hearts, and on Nov. 6, we can’t lose,” Romney said, referencing a motto in the television show “Friday Night Lights” that the show’s creator has asked him to stop using. “Paul Ryan and I will not fail you!”

Ryan campaigning for the GOP nom?! Weird.
posted by petebest at 3:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

I don't see Mark Penn anywhere near the campaign.

He's spying and skewing ~~Pollyhop~~ Bing search results in his new 'special projects' position at Microsoft.
posted by rokusan at 3:29 PM on October 29, 2016

My mistake, Microsoft was last year. This year, Penn is back to lobbyist-greasework with his own firm.
posted by rokusan at 3:32 PM on October 29, 2016

ymgve:
The State Department, and thus by extension Clinton, has SIPRnet available which shares no computers, printers or cables (Maybe not even on the same power grid?) with anything connected to the internet. Everything classified happens there, and that leaves all the "boring" unclassified stuff for the internet-connected systems.

Bit of clarification there - power systems and physical cabling need not be separate. from http://www.usmilcom.com/military.htm

All data transmitted on SIPRNet between secure facilities must be encrypted by approved NSA encryption systems. While the public Internet can be used to transmit encrypted SIPRNet packets ("SIPR over NIPR"), no access is permitted between the two networks.

(Also, hello Metafilter. First time poster, been lurking since late '99 I think. Finally got drawn in.)
posted by Enturbulated at 3:41 PM on October 29, 2016 [89 favorites]

So today, following a vote by our board’s committee, the Human Rights Campaign withdrew our support of Senator Kirk.

Better late than never, I guess?
posted by Surely This at 3:46 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

How about a Sten?

i mean really why not the entire beresaad
posted by poffin boffin at 3:49 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Finally got drawn in.)
posted by Enturbulated
Sooner or later, we all get drawn in... but not usually via a mispronounced emergency room procedure.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:49 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.

Obscure point but for a while in the last decade (when lurking but not a member of MetaFilter) I thought - cannot remember why - that user #1 was also a member of TMBG and MetaFilter was his wacky non-musical side project.
posted by Wordshore at 3:49 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

And we wear Chucks not Ballies.

Yeah that's right
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:50 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

I thought - cannot remember why - that user #1 was also a member of TMBG and MetaFilter was his wacky non-musical side project.

I had a theory that he was also Lowtax
posted by thelonius at 3:51 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.

I'm assuming that sometime around 10 or 11 ET on the 7th we'll see the last election post, which will consist entirely of a link to a performance of the appropriate Ramones song.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 3:52 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.
Even Old New York was once New Amsterdam.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:53 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

Someday, that ant, he will grow up to be President.
posted by zachlipton at 3:55 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

which will consist entirely of a link to a performance of the appropriate Ramones song.

i want to be sedated
posted by pyramid termite at 3:56 PM on October 29, 2016 [25 favorites]

I know politics bore you, but I feel like a hypocrite...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:57 PM on October 29, 2016 [21 favorites]

This is where the party ends
I'll just sit here wondering how you
Can stand by your racist candidate
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 3:57 PM on October 29, 2016 [35 favorites]

you are doing more for the well-being of this country than the entire Republican party right now

It's worth noting that phonebanking against Trump and being a Republican in an elected party position are not mutually exclusive right now. Says, uh, a frieeeeend who's been charged with GOP GOTV for her district. Yeah, that's it, a frieeeeend.
posted by corb at 3:58 PM on October 29, 2016 [67 favorites]

Yes. That is the song I referred to. Because it references there being 24 hours to go.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 3:58 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

if trump wins we can go with the kkk took my baby away
posted by pyramid termite at 3:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

The story of the Trump supporter who committed voter fraud by voting twice actually makes me really sad.

Like...your life is so narrow that you probably only allow yourself to get your news from far right-wing, conspiracy-heavy sources. Anything that might burst that bubble is ignored as "biased liberal media". You've gotten yourself whipped up by a candidate who is promoting the idea that the election is rigged against you. Maybe the only friends and family you talk to are in the same boat, and instead of injecting some independent thought the whole lot of you just wind yourselves in tighter and tighter circles, insulting yourselves against the real world.

You've surrendered yourself to willful ignorance and allowed yourself to be ruled by fear and paranoia, and out of panic you decide to do what you're convinced that the other side is already doing anyway, as a way of balancing the books.

And now you've got a nice arrest record to enjoy, and possibly a conviction down the road.

If you were able to open your mind, you might say, "Hey, the system works after all. If they caught me doing a boneheaded thing, that surely means that there aren't cases of hundreds or thousands of people voting improperly. So maybe I was wrong." But instead, you'll probably decide that the fact you were caught is just one more piece of evidence that the system is rigged against you - because they're making an example out of you and letting the Democrats off the hook. Certain groups of people will see you as a hero and a patriot.

I don't know this woman, of course. But it's just such a small, sad way to live. I hope she can take some good lessons from this, but I'm worried that too many people in this country are too far gone down the road of conspiracy.
posted by Salieri at 4:00 PM on October 29, 2016 [55 favorites]

Advance voting report here in suburban Atlanta. 2 hr. wait to vote on this 80˚ Saturday afternoon at one of two polls open in the county. There will be nine locations open on Monday, so hopefully not quite as painful for those folks, but happy that I got my sticker!
posted by goHermGO at 4:02 PM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

> "...and mostly failing at it. Not only is Trump's fundraising a joke ..."

Trump's fundraising with *big* donors has been a joke. There are probably many reasons for this, ranging from those who are genuinely disgusted by his racism, sexism, and obvious unfitness, to those who merely feel he's an idiot who won't win no matter what.

However, his fundraising with *small* donors has not been a joke at all. I was depressingly incorrect in an earlier comment when I said he would come out of this election with a database of 2 million people. It turns out it's more like 14 million.
posted by kyrademon at 4:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Went to early vote, anticipating short lines if any since it's not widely publicized that California even has in-person early voting. An hour plus wait with lines around the block. I decided not to take the plunge today (I have an insanely busy weekend), but huzzah to everyone else!
posted by Sara C. at 4:07 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

insulting yourselves against the real world.

Probably not the word choice you intended, yet this, too, makes sense in the Trump-supporter context.
posted by eviemath at 4:07 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

A thought occurs. If Trump wins what's the chance of Attorney General Giuliani firing the team leading the contempt charges against Arpaio?
posted by Talez at 4:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Probably not the word choice you intended, yet this, too, makes sense in the Trump-supporter context.

*shakes fist at closed edit window*
posted by Salieri at 4:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Guys, guys, enough with the time machine talk. We will did learn|ed it isn't a good idea.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:10 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

The story of the Trump supporter who committed voter fraud by voting twice actually makes me really sad.

Like...your life is so narrow that you probably only allow yourself to get your news from far right-wing, conspiracy-heavy sources.

I listened to this episode of TAL today, and it was frighteningly eye-opening. One of the more chilling moments was the reporter's conversation with a man who was utterly insistent that parts of the US were already "under sharia law" (though the only one he named was Dearborn, Michigan).

The reporter seemed genuinely flummoxed by how insistently uninformed the man was, and he in turn was incredulous that she would dare to say that no, in fact, there are precisely zero places in the country under sharia law.

"You really believe that? You need to read more," he told the reporter.

Her reply was something along the lines of "I do read. I am a journalist reporting on national stories," but the dude was just unflinching in his xenophobic ignorance.

It was depressing as fuck, and explains so, so goddam much about this election cycle.
posted by dersins at 4:16 PM on October 29, 2016 [83 favorites]

Ali Vitali ‏@alivitali
Man shouts at press pen (and spits on me in the process of shouting) that we are the "enemy" who must be defeated & then screamed "JEW-S-A"

This dude was reaching over the barricade, pointing at us and screaming. I'll be honest: I've been to hundreds of rallies. That was not OK.

Jesus Christ you think shit can't get any worse for the embeds.

THIS IS NOT OK.
posted by Talez at 4:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [58 favorites]

Is the Guardian's Richard Wolffe a MeFite? His latest column uses the terms "dumpster fire of an election" and "giant nothing-burger." He certainly has the snark:

All that’s left are the obvious problems posed by a radical Islamist from Kenya looking to foment a socialist revolution from the Oval Office. Given that he has only two months left in the White House, President Obama needs to speed up his secret plans or else he’ll turn into an even greater disappointment to the right-wingnuts.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:36 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

Guys, guys, enough with the time machine talk. We will did learn|ed it isn't a good idea.
I learned that from the first of the Peabody and Sherman cartoons in 1959.

And what dersins described was not so much "xenophobic ignorance" as the product of an intense disinformation campaign. Even the most enlightened religions require their believers to buy into 'facts' that are demonstrably impossible. "But the Old Testament floods were an analogy..." no, not to many people. And the cults on the Right and Alt-Right are sold on a modern equivalent of the Pantheon of Greek Gods.
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Did he happen to explain what he thought sharia law was? My suspicion is the dude is unclear on where the blame lies for Detroit's (Dearborn) misery.

That would be the corporatist's, buddy. It's been a bi-partisan effort.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 4:41 PM on October 29, 2016

I mean, you want Sharia law, just come to Texas. They stone adulterous women down here (/sarcasm)
posted by Strange_Robinson at 4:45 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Dearborn's pretty heavily Arab-American, to be (more than) fair.

Still not under Sharia law, though!
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:46 PM on October 29, 2016

Here's the video:

Guy chants "Jew-S-A" in front of press pen

Where's the USSS?
posted by Talez at 4:46 PM on October 29, 2016

Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.

What's that orange thing.... DOING here?
posted by mmoncur at 4:47 PM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

I'm assuming that sometime around 10 or 11 ET on the 7th we'll see the last election post, which will consist entirely of a link to a performance of the appropriate Ramones song.

(That post will probably be the 156th on the blue tagged with 'Election2016'. We've come a long way.)

Have been mulling about this and song lyrics that seem appropriate; I assume you mean Bonzo Goes to Bitburg, which came to mind when watching the Genesis Land of Confusion video. Also thinking of Gil Scott-Heron's epic ("You will not be able to plug in, turn on and cop out"), Eminem's recent "Campaign speech":

Consider me a dangerous man
But you should be afraid of this dang candidate
You say Trump don't kiss ass like a puppet
'Cause he runs his campaign with his own cash for the fundin'
And that's what you wanted
A fuckin' loose cannon who's blunt with his hand on the button
Who doesn't have to answer to no one—great idea!

...or Tracy Chapman's Talkin' bout a Revolution, my favorite The Police track, or something by Bruce (either this or, especially, this). Or possibly trying to persuade Cortex and Jessamyn to do a ukelele duet of Guthrie's "This Land is your Land", which could work really well.

But if it looks like Trump is going to win this, then probably Blanck Mass by Chernobyl as we'll be speechless and devoid of words, and because it was used in that scene in A Field in England which may be apt, the morning after a Trump presidential victory.
posted by Wordshore at 4:48 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

You could easily make a list of elements of sharia law that any Christian Conservative would agree to endorse and then go "Surprise!" except you'd probably get your face shot off at one of the first 10 times you do it.
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:50 PM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

Hahaha Trump accidentally confused his deplorables at the rally he's having in Phoenix.

He started in on the spiel about how horrible it is that the administration announced that they were going to invade Mosul before the fact, mockingly quoting them as "We're going to invade Mosul in two months... We're going to invade Mosul in one month... We're going to take out the leaders of ISIL..."

then he went on a side rant about how he doesn't like saying 'ISIL' instead of 'ISIS'*

then he went back to the main rant (mock-quoting Obama) "We're going to take out the leaders of ISIS

but then the deplorables went wild and he awkwardly had to remind them that they weren't supposed to cheer right now

Sad!

*I missed why this is horrible but apparently it is now
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:51 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Did he happen to explain what he thought sharia law was?

Yeah, no, it seemed pretty clear that he didn't have any idea what he meant by Sharia law, other than that has something to do with "the Muslims" and is therefore a harbinger of the end times or something.
posted by dersins at 4:51 PM on October 29, 2016

I listened to this episode of TAL today, and it was frighteningly eye-opening

This is really fascinating. In a horrible way.

But at the end of the day, its the racism.
posted by mumimor at 4:52 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Kyrademon: I was depressingly incorrect in an earlier comment when I said he would come out of this election with a database of 2 million people. It turns out it's more like 14 million.

That's 14 million people who are rubes. They are marks. They are the sort of people who believe a foul, grabby loudmouth who tells them that they'll win, that they'll win so much they'll be sick of winning, just send in another $25. They'll keep on doing it - if it isn't the election, it will be money for "investigating" the results. Or to indict the President. Or something, anything, over and over.

Salieri: The story of the Trump supporter who committed voter fraud by voting twice actually makes me really sad.

When Trump calls on people to swallow lies about their friends and neighbours, to hate them, to believe that they're thieves and parasites and rapists, he is literally asking them to sacrifice their integrity. It's so much more valuable than a monetary contribution, because it's the gift that will keep on giving. Trump's followers cheer when he declares that he will tear the Republic apart. They're his now. Of course they'll commit crimes if they are persuaded that it's in the service of the Cause. We've seen this so many times before. It's a cult, it's a shared delusion, it's a revolutionary movement. And judging by previous experience, it will be around a long time, as long as Trump and his scions can milk it.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:54 PM on October 29, 2016 [33 favorites]

Snopes traced that to a fake news article on National Report

http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/sharia.asp
posted by tsuipen at 4:58 PM on October 29, 2016

I myself have to remind myself constantly that bombing the hell out of Muslim countries does not equal the US hates muslims. It really is a lot of work for me to buy the whole Dems are the non-racist corporate party.

I don't think the US "hates Muslims". By and large, even many (maybe most?) Republicans don't hate Muslims as such (though they may distrust or fear them).

However, I think it's accurate to say that the majority of Americans, and certainly the general policy of the US government, demonstrate fairly callous disregard for the lives of humans outside the borders of the US, with notable exceptions for people in western Europe and historically white-majority English-speaking nations.

Not sure that's better, particularly?
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:06 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

I listened to that TAL episode, and yes, so sad and scary.

There is a special level of disgust I feel for the people who lead those "meetings" where they are basically inventing reasons for people in that area to be afraid and teaching them to hate their own neighbors. Stoking fears of interracial dating, spreading lies about sharia taking over. They would deny up and down that they are racist (just just raising questions and using common sense, of course!) but this is exactly the type of bullshit that makes people receptive to the message of the white nationalists and neonazis.

My sister-in-law is one of those Somali immigrants who settled in the Twin Cities. She and my brother live just across the river in western Wisconsin in the small town I grew up in. I have never heard her complain about the community, but I experienced the narrow mindedness when I was a teenager there and couldn't get out fast enough. The people of Somerset, WI have a lot in common with the people of St. Cloud, MN and it makes me so very afraid for her and my one-year-old niece.
posted by chaoticgood at 5:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

It's not that long ago I was an economics person; I believed that social injustice was more about economy and class than about race. If it were today, I would have been for Sanders in the US, and Corbyn in the UK.
Through my work, I learnt that is simply not at all true. Racism is the main driver of politics today. Even the anti-racist left politicians have to somehow placate the racists in order to get votes and gain influence.
posted by mumimor at 5:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

I was having problems with my grandmother in regards to alternate political reality.

She's 85, hard of hearing and watching fox news supplemented by the news paper. She doesn't get out much- but she knows both of her adult children have significant money problems (money problems related to disability).and she is terrified of the government taking what she has At this point medicaid asset rules are a real concern, but she doesn't understand. In her mind, medicare is falling apart, an she can't get the care she wants at a cost that is acceptable to her.

Really I think that fox just reinforces the scarey things about life and she relates enough for it to be true. Because she isn't seeking out other sources it just reinforces itself.
posted by AlexiaSky at 5:16 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

I sometimes think white racism is due to how thoroughly commoditized white culture has become.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 5:18 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Let's take a trip down IOKIYAR Email Lane:

Like Clinton, the Bush White House used a private email server—its was owned by the Republican National Committee. And the Bush administration failed to store its emails, as required by law, and then refused to comply with a congressional subpoena seeking some of those emails. “It’s about as amazing a double standard as you can get,” says Eric Boehlert, who works with the pro-Clinton group Media Matters. “If you look at the Bush emails, he was a sitting president, and 95 percent of his chief advisers’ emails were on a private email system set up by the RNC. Imagine if for the last year and a half we had been talking about Hillary Clinton’s emails set up on a private DNC server?”

Most troubling, researchers found a suspicious pattern in the White House email system blackouts, including periods when there were no emails available from the office of Vice President Dick Cheney. “That the vice president’s office, widely characterized as the most powerful vice president in history, should have no archived emails in its accounts for scores of days—especially days when there was discussion of whether to invade Iraq—beggared the imagination,” says Thomas Blanton, director of the Washington-based National Security Archive.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:23 PM on October 29, 2016 [66 favorites]

Dearborn's pretty heavily Arab-American, to be (more than) fair.

Still not under Sharia law, though!

Great bakeries, though.

[It's how you can tell you've entered Dearborn from Detroit - the bakery density skyrockets.]

I have to confess that my knowledge of Dearborn is mostly from a "foodie" perspective. I will say that as an obvious outsider I was never made to feel uncomfortable there. To the contrary, everyone I encountered in Dearborn seemed outgoing and friendly. I just don't get the hyped-up fear that people have of Arab people*, or muslims in general.

My main impression was of how great the food was. Not only bakeries, but restaurants as well. One place we went to got an "American Classic" award from the James Beard Society last year. Well deserved IMO.

* Pretty sure that many of the Arab-Americans in Dearborn are actually Chistian, not Muslim.
posted by Surely This at 5:30 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Exclusive: FBI still does not have warrant to review new Abedin emails linked to Clinton probe

Holy shit. Comey really didn't think before pulling the trigger aimed at his genitals did he. The relevant FBI agents haven't/can't even look at the emails and he's sending out that letter and calling them "pertinent".
posted by Talez at 5:33 PM on October 29, 2016 [68 favorites]

This was anyway not about "trying to control" anyone's language, it was my opinion about someone else's wording.

My bad, understood, it's all good, namlit, but it is, as we all know here, easy to misread what people write sometimes.
posted by y2karl at 5:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

I just got a chance to visit the Arab-American National Museum in Dearborn, and it was awesome. And behind it is an incredible full grocery store with a bakery, prepared foods, gifts, candy, and groceries from around the Arab world. Highly, highly recommended. Also, I learned a lot about the history of Arab-descended people in the US; I thought I was pretty well versed already, but no, I wasn't, and I learned a lot more.
posted by Miko at 5:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [28 favorites]

I sometimes think white racism is due to how thoroughly commoditized white culture has become.

How do you mean? (Honest question - I'm not quite connecting the dots here but I'm intrigued.)
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:37 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

with notable exceptions for people in western Europe

Are you forgetting Strategic Air Command's repeated firebombing of German cities? The US Military doesn't discriminate when it comes to raining bombs down on our enemies. Heck we maintain an entire nuclear arsenal on a hair trigger ready to kill the whole world just in case it is necessary. Feel better? Me neither.
posted by humanfont at 5:37 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

Exclusive: FBI still does not have warrant to review new Abedin emails linked to Clinton probe

As of Saturday night, the FBI had still not gotten approval from the Justice Department for a warrant that would allow agency officials to read any of the newly discovered Abedin emails, and therefore are still in the dark about whether they include any classified material that the bureau has not already seen.

“We do not have a warrant,” a senior law enforcement official said. “Discussions are under way [between the FBI and the Justice Department] as to the best way to move forward.”

That Comey and other senior FBI officials were not aware of what was in the emails — and whether they contained any material the FBI had not already obtained — is important because Donald Trump’s campaign and Republicans in Congress have suggested that the FBI director would not have written his letter unless he had been made aware of significant new emails that might justify reopening the investigation into the Clinton server.

But a message that Comey wrote to all FBI agents Friday seeking to explain his decision to write the controversial letter strongly hinted that investigators did not not yet have legal authority establishing “probable cause” to review the content of Abedin’s emails on Weiner’s electronic devices.

In that message, Comey told agents that he had only been briefed on Thursday about the matter and that the “recommendation” of investigators was “with respect to seeking access to emails that have recently been found in an unrelated case.”

posted by cashman at 5:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [11 favorites]

What if Donald Trump Won With a GOP Congress? | AM Joy | MSNBC

Lawrence O’Donnell attempts to lower the JCPL.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:40 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Are you forgetting Strategic Air Command's repeated firebombing of German cities?

No; but I don't think it's excusing Dresden to say that the US generally saw Germans as fully realized human beings even in the depths of World War II. I don't think our current foreign policy demonstrates the same recognition of a shared humanity with persons whose ancestry is from south or east of the Mediterranean.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:42 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

i've driven through dearborn on outer dr - you could see the sharia in the air, like a dense fog or something ...

no, that was me smoking - never mind
posted by pyramid termite at 5:42 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

I have to confess that my knowledge of Dearborn is mostly from a "foodie" perspective. I will say that as an obvious outsider I was never made to feel uncomfortable there. To the contrary, everyone I encountered in Dearborn seemed outgoing and friendly. I just don't get the hyped-up fear that people have of Arab people*, or muslims in general.

My main impression was of how great the food was. Not only bakeries, but restaurants as well. One place we went to got an "American Classic" award from the James Beard Society last year. Well deserved IMO.

* Pretty sure that many of the Arab-Americans in Dearborn are actually Chistian, not Muslim.

Not anymore. It's true that the first Middle Eastern immigrants in Dearborn were Christian (Lebanese, Armenian, etc.) but it is now majority Muslim (Dearborn is about 40% Arab American). There's a large Chaldean community in Sterling Heights and other pockets of Christian Arabs are scattered around. The metro Detroit Arab-American community is notable for its lack of sectarianism. Not to say that there aren't class and other divides, just that Middle Eastern sectarian conflicts tend not to be carried over.

Yes, the food is excellent even beyond the numerous bakeries!
posted by Preserver at 5:44 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

It's an interesting and a helpful question, actually: what would the foreign policy of a superpower committed to recognizing the universal nature of human rights look like? That's where progressives should be dragging the conversation after (turn, turn, turn, curse, spit, etc.)
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:45 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

The metro Detroit Arab-American community is notable for the lack of sectarianism. Not to say that there aren't class and other divides, just that Middle Eastern sectarian conflicts tend not to be carried over.

Wow, it's almost like the intractable, eternal clash of religions and tribes gets better when people aren't living in situations where their communities aren't constantly pitted against one another!
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:47 PM on October 29, 2016 [36 favorites]

i've driven through dearborn on outer dr - you could see the sharia in the air, like a dense fog or something ...

no, that was me smoking - never mind

More likely you were looking toward Zug Island.
posted by Preserver at 5:51 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

or they all have another community they can look down upon and oppress
posted by pyramid termite at 5:52 PM on October 29, 2016

I just don't get the hyped-up fear that people have of Arab people*, or muslims in general.

It's most likely due to a combination of xenophobia, fear of the unknown, and a political party that is all too ready to exploit those fears for their own gain by trumping up "we don't know what they're going to do, we better be careful" rumors.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:53 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

heh - i had a friend who lived in delray off of e jefferson and if the wind was blowing the right way, her windshield would be covered with soot from zug island

which is several miles from dearborn, you know ...
posted by pyramid termite at 5:53 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Probable cause isn't a hugely high bar, but I guess there's a real question as to what the FBI would be investigating. If it's improper storage of classified information on the Abedin/Weiner laptop, what's the probable cause to believe there are classified emails, separate from the emails already reviewed by the FBI, on the laptop, and how do make an argument specific to this laptop that wouldn't apply to any government employee with a security clearance who owns a personal laptop and an email account? And, at least for emails from earlier in Clinton's time as Secretary, would the statue of limitations have already lapsed?
posted by zachlipton at 5:54 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

I know it's been said in lots of places recently, including here, but the Clinton campaign really needs to do something to change this narrative. This latest email thing is nothing but a zilchpickle (thanks, Devonian) on top of the giant nothingburger that has been this entire emails non-scandal, but there's not much going on in the election right now and there's nothing else to really chew on over this weekend. They need to come out on Monday morning with a new story that has some real meat to it, so that the press can have something else to talk about going forward. It's coming down to the wire here, and a lot hinges on the Clinton campaign's ability to keep their own supporters fired up while making Trump-leaning voters feel as disgusted as possible with the Republican candidate.

If Hillary wants a Democratic congress to help her get some shit done in her first two years, she needs turnout to be in her favor. The biggest part of that is not so much about getting out the vote with her own base—though that's important, and her campaign is all over it—but rather a matter of getting the folks in the mushy middle pissed off enough at Trump that they show up at the polls just to vote against him, and getting some of the long-term Republican partisans who are uncomfortable with Trump but who would normally vote for him just because he's who their team is fielding this year to feel disgusted enough that they stay home or leave the Presidential spot on the ballot blank.

To achieve that, she needs to be on top in the media narrative going into the final stretch. The country was pretty livid when the Billy Bush video came out, but that's mostly died down now and some voters are beginning to drift back toward Trump. This new emails thing is just a blip, but we're now in the part of the canpaign where blips matter. If she has any good oppo that she's been sitting on, we're coming up on the time when she should unleash it.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

My hunch is that they're not sitting on anything. It's getting a bit late for an October surprise. In three days, it'll be November.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Putting out the October Surprise in November would certainly be unexpected
posted by thelonius at 6:06 PM on October 29, 2016 [33 favorites]

Yeah, I'm kinda feeling that too. Regardless though, she needs to fond some way to grab the media by its nose ring and make it look at something else. If I were her though and I had one big bomb to drop, I'd be saving it for the evening of November 6th, so that it would have one full news cycle to run and would still be maximally fresh on the actual 8th. Right now she needs to take the media's gaze off herself and put it back on Trump—so if she has two bombs, now is the time to use the first one—but the final 48 hours will probably be the most critical.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:08 PM on October 29, 2016

Less time for people to forget about it? It seems like some people are persuaded to vote against Trump by some scandal but then drift back to him in about a week.
posted by dilaudid at 6:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

GOP braces for turmoil after Election Day

“It’s like Humpty Dumpty fell and broke, then a giant lawn mower ran over it, acid was thrown on the pieces — and a bunch of racist idiots ran off with an arm and a leg,” said John Weaver, a longtime Republican consultant. “How do you put it back together? I don’t know.”

posted by kirkaracha at 6:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [14 favorites]

Typically the election would be earlier in November than this year's, though - there's plenty of time for more Surprises. The news of Bush's DUI came out on the Friday before the election.
posted by janewman at 6:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

The news of Bush's DUI came out on the Friday before the election.

Which changed everything, of course.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:12 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Oh, no, no more surprises, please. I mean, if this is just the tip of the iceberg of what's coming in the next 10 days ...
posted by StrawberryPie at 6:13 PM on October 29, 2016

At least I have a Halloween costume: an IOS notification saying: Anthony Weiner wants to FaceTime with you.
posted by shothotbot at 6:22 PM on October 29, 2016 [20 favorites]

Media narrative makes a marginal difference, to be sure, but I think the variance in outcome is mostly determined already by the ground game. Unfortunately, we don't have any real precedent to look at in terms of what the difference between a top-notch GOTV effort vs. basically nothing will be.

What I mean is, if you assume that Sam Wang's Meta-margin is basically accurate, Hillary is currently more likely than not to get between 3-5 percent of the popular vote. That translates into an EV win pretty similar to Obama '12 (solid but not overwhelming) and a gain of perhaps 10-15 House seats. I imagine that if horse-race coverage ends up being stupid email nothingburgers for the next week, she may end toward the bottom of that range; and conversely, if this ends up being a two-day story Trumped by some other idiocy that Donald says / does / is accused of / is seen on video doing, maybe she gets toward the top of that range.

But it is also entirely possible that the massive ground game advantage may noticeably drive the Dem turnout up. And I think that's the best hope that we have to turn the House red and to deliver the stinging rebuke to fascism that we actually need to be able to turn the page on this horrible year. Frustratingly, though, this wasn't foreseen or built into the poll forecasts (and how would that even work?), so it's sort of an open question that could mean nothing or could mean a net 3%? or even 5%?!?! advantage toward Clinton and downballot Dems.

I'm not trying to unskew the polls, here: I'm saying there's a genuine factor that wasn't included because no one anticipated how awful the GOP-Trump coordination efforts would be.

This ground-game effect is either already true, or it isn't true (or so minor as to be irrelevant): but we won't know until the votes start to be counted.

Call it Schrödinger's Ballot Box.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

“It’s like Humpty Dumpty fell and broke, then a giant lawn mower ran over it, acid was thrown on the pieces — and a bunch of racist idiots ran off with an arm and a leg,” said John Weaver, a longtime Republican consultant. “How do you put it back together? I don’t know.”

You stuff as much as your shitty agenda through the statehouses as you can knowing you've at least got a few million wage slaves that can be dismissed if they display insubordination like daring to ask for a living wage.
posted by Talez at 6:26 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ahh, by 'Turn the House red' above I of course meant 'blue'. I'll blame it on the fact that a friend from Canada was staying with me this weekend and I must have switched my mental partisan colo(u)rs around again
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:26 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Sharia courts do of course exist in America and even receive a bit of official recognition and support: namely, the same status accorded to batei din, Canon Law courts, and a great variety of other religious and secular non-binding arbitration systems. They're opt-in and pretty much the only way they're officially recognized as far as I can tell (IANAL) is that, if the disputants in a civil case agree to the judgment of these non-governmental courts, the governmental judiciary considers their role in the dispute complete and will butt out.
posted by jackbishop at 6:27 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

What I mean is, if you assume that Sam Wang's Meta-margin is basically accurate, Hillary is currently more likely than not to get between 3-5 percent of the popular vote.

Are you trying to kill Justinian?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:29 PM on October 29, 2016 [29 favorites]

Sharia courts do of course exist in America and even receive a bit of official recognition and support: namely, the same status accorded to batei din, Canon Law courts, and a great variety of other religious and secular non-binding arbitration systems. They're opt-in and pretty much the only way they're officially recognized as far as I can tell (IANAL) is that, if the disputants in a civil case agree to the judgment of these non-governmental courts, the governmental judiciary considers their role in the dispute complete and will butt out.

Exactly. The only thing that's literally different than other people and their religion is brown skin.

It's like when people complain about their food being turned halal and all you can do is facepalm at the stupidity of demanding [x product] not be certified halal.
posted by Talez at 6:30 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

What is white culture? Country music? Polo? Disney? Indiscriminate murder of non-whites?

Maybe it was too universalized, whatever white culture is/was. This white boy certainly cannot explain what white culture is.

Modern US rock music, for example, while it still has some cache, is a pale imitation of tired formulas. Why did it become that way? I figure it's because the MBA type's got ahold of it, but who knows. It's largely not authentic, been market tested into sterility, and rarely has much interesting to say.

One small anecdote:

A metal-head buddy of mine told me once he couldn't get into hip-hop from the misogyny. That kinda statement I like to call soft-racism. I'm like, dude, have you listened to much metal?

It's a kind of projection taking place there. Inferiority masking itself as disapproval of the other. Pure shadow stuff in Jungian terms. He knows as well as I know that endless repetition of AC/DC is not worth doing.

White culture is only real in opposition to the other.

As a final side point, I predict the Republicans will expand the definition of white around the time the so-called demographic turn occurs. It's already happening with their courting of hispanic-whites. Plenty of mestizo and native hate there to keep on keeping on with their current strategies. As long as the definition of white comprises 51% of the country, they can keep going like they have been.

I owe a great deal of debt to Coates on these points.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 6:30 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

Are you forgetting Strategic Air Command's repeated firebombing of German cities?

Not to be too pedantic but the Strategic Air Command was formed in 1947 and, the saturation bombing of Dresden and Hamburg aside, deliberate firebombing with gelled gasoline was something more done to the Japanese. Over 100,000 civilians died in the raid on Tokyo.

And as to the deliberate bombing of civilians in the Second World War, many argue was the Germans who started it. But Britain and the United States were the ones who came up with, expanded and rationalized the concept of strategic bombing, i.e., of civilian populations in industrial cities, so your point is not without merit.
posted by y2karl at 6:32 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

namely, the same status accorded to batei din, Canon Law courts, and a great variety of other religious and secular non-binding arbitration systems

My understanding was that they were binding. It may vary by jurisdiction.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:33 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Are you trying to kill Justinian?

I've been operating for a good month now on the assumption that the revenant JCPL has long since fully inhabited the desiccated fingers of Justinian's corpse in an epic quest to spread its reign of panic across the blue and beyond.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:35 PM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

Trump and Pence have found out that Egg McMuffin exists.

Spoiler: He's "Bill Kristol's puppet".

My understanding was that they were binding. It may vary by jurisdiction.

They're officially non-binding but ex-communication and/or shunning from a community is a powerful thing. Hell, some Jewish women don't get remarried because they don't can't get a Get from their ex-husband despite their secular divorce being legal.
posted by Talez at 6:35 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

White people created classical music, shuffleboard, licorice, and many other things.
posted by thelonius at 6:35 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

Spoiler: He's "Bill Kristol's puppet".

No puppet! No puppet! You're the puppet! NO YOU'RE THE PUPPET!
posted by Justinian at 6:37 PM on October 29, 2016 [49 favorites]

Puppet! You're the puppet! He's the puppet! Everyone's the puppet! Puppets for everyone! Putin gets a puppet! Puppets, puppets everywhere!

non-edit: Curse you, revenant JCPL! You can steal my friend Justinian's body but you can never have my puppet mockery!
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:39 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Guys, I think my adrenaline receptors are burning out. It's not a good feeling.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:41 PM on October 29, 2016 [12 favorites]

It's like when people complain about their food being turned halal and all you can do is facepalm at the stupidity of demanding [x product] not be certified halal.

I remember a story from years back, that said airlines just served the Kosher meal if someone requested Halal, since it technically fit. Now I'm wondering if I remember that right.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on October 29, 2016

White people created classical music, shuffleboard, licorice, and many other things.

You've reminded me of a bit from the Mockumentary "C.S.A.", which is an alternative-history look at "what the history of the country would maybe have been if the Confederacy won the Civil War". There's a bit from the "1960s" which discusses the cultural revolution brought about when the culture of Canada - vitalized by artistic freedom - catches the eye of the people on the southern side of "the Cotton Curtain", compared to what they had for entertainment.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:47 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

I think there's enough overlap between halal and kosher that airline meals are probably designed to meet criteria for both. I'm afraid to say more since we are probably already doomed to have a (fascinating, but incredibly off-topic) long derail about the minutiae thereof
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:47 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

They were't 'white' when classical music was made. White as a concept is pretty young in historical terms. I suspect it only came to matter because of slavery here in the states. Licorice was Egyptian, yea? Can't speak to shuffleboard though.

The current definition of white is not the same as it was even twenty years ago. For instance, it's relatively recent that Jews got lumped in with whites. I suspect that is what's driving much of the anti-semitism above and beyond the cover of tired WW2 retreads.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 6:47 PM on October 29, 2016 [11 favorites]

As a final side point, I predict the Republicans will expand the definition of white around the time the so-called demographic turn occurs. It's already happening with their courting of hispanic-whites. Plenty of mestizo and native hate there to keep on keeping on with their current strategies. As long as the definition of white comprises 51% of the country, they can keep going like they have been.

Next up: the GOP culturally appropriates the paper bag test and starts to deploy it (on the q.t., of course) on Hispanic voters.
posted by fuse theorem at 6:50 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

I think there's enough overlap between halal and kosher that airline meals are probably designed to meet criteria for both. I'm afraid to say more since we are probably already doomed to have a (fascinating, but incredibly off-topic) long derail about the minutiae thereof

Yeah, I was just wondering about the emphasis on halal food, versus kosher. But /derail.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:54 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Meanwhile, today, in bluest of the blue Massachusetts, members of the police union in the Boston suburb of Medford joined in a fall festival by "arresting" somebody in a Hillary Clinton outfit and palling around with a Trump impersonator. They originally posted the photos to their Facebook page, but for some reason took them down after some gloomy Gusses began complaining about stuff like impartiality and fairness.
posted by adamg at 6:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [44 favorites]

White as a concept is pretty young in historical terms. I suspect it only came to matter because of slavery here in the states.

The Origins of Institutionalized Racism – a System to Control Blacks … and Whites

Why is there such a system that has a solid foundation and that has existed all this time, and is so deeply ingrained? Why is there institutionalized racism? If one accepts such a premise, that there is such a thing, then the most obvious answer is that it exists to control blacks, African-Americans. And to control other minorities, Mexican-Americans, Native Americans.

Yet this system is not meant to only control blacks – and other peoples of color – but it also is meant to control white people.
...
[Howard] Zinn and [Theodore] Allen both describe how in the early years of the 1600s in the colonies, slavery had not yet been regularized or legalized, even though there was already a developing pattern of unequal treatment. Zinn discovered evidence in the 17th century showed that where whites and blacks found themselves with common problems, common work, and a common enemy in their master, they behaved toward one another as equals.
...
The colonial rulers learned that the only way to survive and maintain control was to keep their enemies divided. They learned that by developing a system of inequality between the black and white servants, they could mold the allegiance of the English poor to the masters.

The colonial assemblies began passing measures that over time – over a half century at least, piece by piece, law by law, began constructing “the slavery codes” – that developed this unequal treatment of whites and blacks. At first, measures were passed outlawing sexual relations between blacks and whites – installing worse penalties and punishments for blacks. This dichotomy in how people were being treated, built an unequal structure of racial slavery, where black laborers were slaves but white laborers were not slaves. This was the beginnings of institutionalized racism – a system based on the unequal treatment of whites and blacks.
...
Only one fear was greater than the fear of black rebellion in the new American colonies. That was the fear that discontented whites would join black slaves to overthrow the existing order.

posted by kirkaracha at 6:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [24 favorites]

Same interview, Trump says he could take Diamond Joe.
posted by Talez at 7:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

I live in Medford and those photos are (a) par for the course and (b) depressing.
posted by pxe2000 at 7:06 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Qallunaat - an ethnographic study of white people. (Previously)
posted by eviemath at 7:10 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

Everybody rein in your multiple branching derails and cut back on the one-line referent-free snark!
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

Oh, and the guy on the right side of the photo showing Clinton under arrest is the union president.
posted by adamg at 7:13 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

Oh, and the guy on the right side of the photo showing Clinton under arrest is the union president.

The phrase he used in his please explain to the local news was:

"These were Halloween costumes. It was meant totally as a joke. I apologize if this offended anyone in any way. I never expected this sort of reaction. It was poor judgment on my part," said MacGilvray.

JUST A PRANK, BRO!
posted by Talez at 7:16 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Why isn't doing this in uniform an instant firing?

What the hell.
posted by Yowser at 7:20 PM on October 29, 2016 [17 favorites]

Meanwhile, today, in bluest of the blue Massachusetts, members of the police union in the Boston suburb of Medford joined in a fall festival by "arresting" somebody in a Hillary Clinton outfit and palling around with a Trump impersonator.

Jesus christ. I am so fucking tired of this election. Those cops should be suspended.

I'm historically a Republican voter (in MA it's a different landcape; I've been registered independent my whole life). I have done so because (a) I'm not a big fan of one-party states and (b) I honestly do think that there's been a lot of reasonable compromise found between the Democratic controlled state congress and the often Republican governor or other officials. So sure, at the national level there's some bullshit, but at the state level I feel like it's a different story.

At this point though ... fuck that. I voted today (woohoo, early voting). I voted straight-ticket Democrat, for the first time in my life. At this point, I don't give a shit if you're running for dog catcher: if you're still associated with the Republican party, I want you the fuck out of any possible position of power.
posted by tocts at 7:20 PM on October 29, 2016 [143 favorites]

Ali Vitali ‏@alivitali Man shouts at press pen (and spits on me in the process of shouting) that we are the "enemy" who must be defeated & then screamed "JEW-S-A"

This incident happened here in Phoenix, and I am absolutely livid.
According to Clara Jeffery, editor-in-chief of Mother Jones, the reporter was able to get security to remove him as a dangerous threat. But the Trump campaign claims the reason he was facing away from Trump (and toward the press area) was to show his disagreement with Trump's talking points about voter suppression.

I mean, come on.
posted by Superplin at 7:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

Contracts with police unions that make it basically impossible to fire a cop who shows nothing but contempt for the rule of law? Just a guess.

Nothing makes me seriously reconsider my support of public unions than the police unions.
posted by tclark at 7:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [30 favorites]

Medford Police have had one or two other problems over the past year.
posted by adamg at 7:26 PM on October 29, 2016

There have been a bunch of new events added to Hillary's campaign schedule (unaffiliated page but links to official events) for the coming week. Hillary will be in Cincinnati on Halloween and in Florida the next day, then North Carolina on the 3rd.

President Obama will be in Columbus on Tuesday, then North Carolina on Wednesday, and Jacksonville & South Florida on Thursday. He'll be on Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO on Friday night.

America's dad is doing early voting events in Michigan tomorrow, North Carolina on Monday, Wisconsin on Tuesday, and Iowa on Wednesday.
posted by cashman at 7:27 PM on October 29, 2016 [5 favorites]

unaffiliated page but links to official events

Pretty sure it's affiliated. The campaign site links to there. Not sure why it's a different URL.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:31 PM on October 29, 2016

Oh, and today I discovered that one of the local Democratic Party employees is a former student. She'd always looked familiar, but I am terrible at connecting names and faces out of context, so she had the advantage of knowing my name. When I turned in my canvassing packet (after three hours in the nearly 100-degree heat, because Phoenix in late October), she shyly said, "So, I think you were my professor..."

We high-fived over her excellent career choices.
posted by Superplin at 7:32 PM on October 29, 2016 [35 favorites]

> That's 14 million people who are rubes. They are marks.

When American Gods premieres early next year, I'm afraid I'm going to be reminded of Trump's sleaziness when get to Wednesday's seductions and grifting.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 7:34 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Pretty sure it's affiliated. The campaign site links to there. Not sure why it's a different URL.

I thought so too - then I noticed their disclaimer recently. "Hillary Clinton Speeches is not affiliated with Hillary Clinton, her representatives, or Hillary for America."
posted by cashman at 7:36 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

(In case anyone is keeping track, this was GOTV date #2. There isn't going to be a #3.)
posted by Superplin at 7:38 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Tomorrow Trump is in Vegas, CO and NM (?), then MI for two events on Monday (??).

Liz Mair (who's working w/ Johnson) suggests that it's because Rs in NM and MI are going L, but also that he's been baited into going there and wants to rage against Gov. Martinez and Ford Motors. Pence is in NH and FL on his strange parallel campaign.
posted by holgate at 7:40 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Has anybody at the Trump campaign ever looked at a map? Either an electoral map or just a geographic one. Because nothing about the schedule of his events makes any sense by either standard.
posted by zachlipton at 7:46 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

So it turned out tonight that one of the guys at our board gaming table was all in for Trump. When asked why, he said he thought Hillary was the "more warlike candidate."

When it was pointed out things Trump has said, he first went with "well, he didn't say that." and when it was pointed out that "yeah, he did, here's proof," he instead went with the more nuanced defense of "well, that's not what he meant. It's not his policy."

So he... doesn't believe that what Trump says is his policies for office are what his real policies, I guess, but he's still voting for him based on... apparently some secret policy agenda that he did not actually say? I dunno. The discussion trailed off at that point, and I decided I'd rather spend my energy elsewhere tonight than deal with the dude.

Still, I'm going "I don't grok how anyone could believe those aren't his real policies, and be voting for him without knowing what his 'real policies' are, if those are not they." The sheer mental contortions involved here are maddening.

Of course, I suspect the real answer is dude is just anti-Hillary.
posted by Archelaus at 7:46 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Yeah there is no good reason for Trump to burn a valuable day in Michigan, where he's being very solidly beaten by Clinton.

He might as well campaign in Vermont for all the good it will do him.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:48 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

i don't know whether anyone's been keeping tabs on certain right leaning websites, but at least judging from zero hedge, people are totally losing their shit and trying to come up with any and all conspiracy theories to explain why trump's going to lose the election (when he's not going to win it, ah ha ha ha)

why hasn't it occurred to these people that trump's just an asshole and we just don't plain fucking want an asshole for our president?

is that really hard to understand?
posted by pyramid termite at 7:49 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

Erick Erickson Is Sorry About Some of the Things He Has Said. Prompted by a personal health crisis (although it refers to his mounting medical expenses, no opinion in there of Obamacare), and threats received after he dis-invited Trump to an event he sponsored.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:50 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

(In case anyone is keeping track, this was GOTV date #2. There isn't going to be a #3.)

Is that a comment on GOTV or your date?

I'm officially completely overwhelmed. I did GOTV all day both days for the past two weekends, and this weekend I have off but I have to study for a computer science exam on Tuesday for which I am completely, woefully unprepared. Work is nuts, and I just realized that I'm due to get my period on Sunday of GOTV. I hope it will be late, because I'm tethered to a staging location in some random person's house for the entire day, and I don't want to flush tampons down their toilet, but I also don't want to leave dirty tampons in their trashcan. These are not the GOTV problems that they tell you about in GOTV training.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:51 PM on October 29, 2016 [25 favorites]

The Trump campaign firmly believes all public polls are rigged, so evaluating his scheduling based on our perception of facts is futile. Trump is convinced he's in a dead heat, and white midwest states are still his secret path to victory, because all of his hidden, white, first time voters are there. That's his only hope, so that's what they're still playing for.

At this point anyone who knows better inside the Trump campaign also knows there's no point in making any real effort to run a coherent strategy over the next 9-10 days. Either a few million extra white people show up for Trump, or he loses.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:55 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

Egg is going for the jugular. Go Egg.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:55 PM on October 29, 2016 [36 favorites]

ArbitraryAndCapricious: Is that a comment on GOTV or your date?

Oh, I'll be doing plenty more GOTV (even though, like you, I'm overwhelmed and have a big deadline this week for which I'm way behind). Just unaccompanied from now on.

Sadly, I know he won't bother to keep volunteering on his own, either. (This fact encapsulates some of why he's been voted off my personal island.)
posted by Superplin at 7:58 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

Has anybody at the Trump campaign ever looked at a map? Either an electoral map or just a geographic one. Because nothing about the schedule of his events makes any sense by either standard.

It makes sense as cover for a string of diamond heists.
posted by drezdn at 8:01 PM on October 29, 2016 [29 favorites]

So Egg is a shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik but he's OUR shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik!
posted by Justinian at 8:02 PM on October 29, 2016 [28 favorites]

Tomorrow Trump is in Vegas, CO and NM (?), then MI for two events on Monday (??)

Seems legit. HuffPost Pollster: Nevada (Clinton +2.3), Colorado (Clinton +5.1), New Mexico (Clinton +9.3), Michigan (Clinton +7.3).

It makes sense as cover for a string of diamond heists.

Maybe he's mapping out a sad face across the US.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [15 favorites]

So Egg is a shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik but he's OUR shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik!

Pretty much.

It's so weird that in a week and a half, this will be over. What are we all going to do with all that excess emotional energy?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [17 favorites]

I've been reading Erickson this year and despite his history I think he is going some sincere rethinking of his views and it's interesting to follow.

It does seem like he is and that's very much a good thing.

I'm sorry that his wife is ill, I'm sorry that he's having to deal with medical bills and such, I'm sorry that people are making death threats to him and his family. That's just awful.

But: it's just so tiresome to watch these whiny asshole conservatives who have spent so much time spreading shit, and then they show up to get their gold star stickers because their BS is actually catching up to them on a personal level. It just feels like they're only moving as far and as quickly as they are comfortable moving. They're still setting their own timetable for "evolution", and that in itself is a massive privilege.

I just want one -- ONE -- of them to stand up and say, "wow, you know what? I really fucked up and spent a really long time not listening to POC and women and low-income people, and I used my platform to hurt a lot of people, and now I'm going to sit down and shut up for a bit. The only time you're going to hear from me for the next X number of months is when I'm sharing what I'm learning or amplifying the voices that I spent so much time silencing."
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:04 PM on October 29, 2016 [66 favorites]

Egg's going to be on Meet the Press tomorrow, by the way.

I wish panel members on the Sunday morning shows would just turn anything Trump to Egg v Trump. Like Trump, you're not even on Hillary's level to have a discussion yet. Here. Battle with Egg.
posted by cashman at 8:04 PM on October 29, 2016 [16 favorites]

I remember the 1980 election, WWF and D&D Saturdays.
And I remember watching the WWF and yelling "that's rigged!" (Duh) so I was teased until we got to the 'Tomb of Horrors'. Which is rigged!
posted by clavdivs at 8:04 PM on October 29, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you have ANY emotional energy LEFT when this is over... get a sportsball team to root for.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:06 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

What are we all going to do with all that excess emotional energy?

I'm pretty sure if we don't elect a Fascist on the Tuesday after next, a bunch of us will expend it that night yelling praises into the air and celebrating.
posted by cashman at 8:06 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

I early voted in South Florida (read: blue Florida) today. 30 minute wait in drizzley rain. Lots of PoC and women. I felt encouraged.
posted by gatorae at 8:06 PM on October 29, 2016 [30 favorites]

Contracts with police unions that make it basically impossible to fire a cop who shows nothing but contempt for the rule of law?

Unions generally make sure that there is a process to follow, and effective grievance procedures when management doesn't follow the process. I am not familiar with police unions specifically, but in my experience with academic unions and the tenure system, there can also be an issue of management not being particularly good at documenting employees' performance in a way that would support eg. firing or other disciplinary action for an employee who is engaged in gross misconduct. (And on the flip side, management may not always be particularly good at documenting and rewarding positive job performance either.) In general, managers can do an awful lot in terms of setting workplace culture. I'm not a fan of police unions based on their political positions and past actions, but I wouldn't lay all of this on them.

I just want one -- ONE -- of them to stand up and say, "wow, you know what? I really fucked up and spent a really long time not listening to POC and women and low-income people, and I used my platform to hurt a lot of people, and now I'm going to sit down and shut up for a bit. The only time you're going to hear from me for the next X number of months is when I'm sharing what I'm learning or amplifying the voices that I spent so much time silencing."

Well, there was the recent story about the son of the guy who founded Stormfront having repudiated white nationalism, and working with the SPLC to help reverse some of the damage his earlier efforts had caused?
posted by eviemath at 8:09 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

In Florida, 99% more Latinos have voted this year than at this point in 2012.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:10 PM on October 29, 2016 [36 favorites]

I live in Massachusetts. Such is my rage over this Medford police thing that I cannot coherently express it here. Rest assured though that I am doing what I can elsewhere to help blow this up. This event is a perfect example of what is wrong with our police force in this country: they share the values and worldview of Donald Trump. These fuckers live in such a bubble of alt-right propaganda that they actually expected to be celebrated for this display. I am incandescent with fury right now.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 8:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [58 favorites]

Yeah. That's a really good example, actually, that I'd forgotten about. Derek Black.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:12 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

The polls are rigged", says white female Trump supporter after she's arrested for voter fraud..

Well is the past is any indication I will being spending at least a day flucuating between feeling like I need to run around in circles and sitting quietly while I have a really good cry.

Any time I've spent time under emotional stress this happens when it's over. Doesn't matter what it is, good or bad.
posted by Jalliah at 8:13 PM on October 29, 2016 [3 favorites]

So he... doesn't believe that what Trump says is his policies for office are what his real policies, I guess, but he's still voting for him based on... apparently some secret policy agenda that he did not actually say?

This is one of the most common "arguments" I've seen from otherwise "reasonable" people, and it's infuriating. He won't actually do any of the things he says or has been repeatedly implicated in, you see, and here are the things he will actually do, based on nothing but my personal conjecture.
posted by Behemoth at 8:24 PM on October 29, 2016 [13 favorites]

...Because nothing about the schedule of his events makes any sense by either standard.

It makes sense as cover for a string of diamond heists.

That would be about the only way for Trump's entire presidential campaign to make any sense.
posted by Flashman at 8:26 PM on October 29, 2016 [8 favorites]

Egg seems very excited he gets to throw a punch on Twitter:

.@realDonaldTrump, Yes you’ve never heard of me because while you were harassing women at beauty pageants, I was fighting terrorists abroad.

--@Evan_McMullin
posted by zachlipton at 8:27 PM on October 29, 2016 [48 favorites]

I'm conflicted about police unions as well. Even though I'm on the management side by position, I'm also a big believer in unions as a concept. I even like our union well enough (though, they tend to be kind of... well not INcompetent, just less effective than they could be).

I try to imagine what is so gross about police unions, and then identify exactly what it is they do that I wouldn't expect our union to do. Insist on procedure? Represent the employee? Bargain for contract provisions to the best of their ability?

The only thing that makes our union different than the police one is: ours genuinely feels that it's in their interest and their other members' interests to get rid of genuinely problematic people. For every shit head, there are dozens of good employees wishing that person would get what's coming to them. They have been known to decline to represent employees (past a certain point, or to do so only on due process.) Since I genuinely don't want to screw anyone over, we don't really conflict very often. Extremely rarely, in fact. But maybe all managements aren't like mine, and so the unions can't be like the one we have without getting run over.

The police unions seem to have made the decision a long time ago that membership would appreciate more of a "employee, right or wrong" defense-lawyer-like zealotry. And now it's self-reinforcing. That is what they're like, so that's what the membership expects.
posted by ctmf at 8:28 PM on October 29, 2016 [7 favorites]

The close relationship between police and prosecutors is such that there absolutely need to be independent prosecutors to deal with police misconduct. That would go a hell of a long way toward addressing this problem.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:28 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

The police unions seem to have made the decision a long time ago that membership would appreciate more of a "employee, right or wrong" defense-lawyer-like zealotry. And now it's self-reinforcing. That is what they're like, so that's what the membership expects.

And that's why they all must be destroyed.
posted by Artw at 8:30 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

...but he's OUR shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik!

I just posted his Twitter comment on Facebook with the commentary "I'm glad he's on our side."

Back in '07 a bunch of intel on Iran was leaded that basically undermined Bush Co.'s war drum beating at the time. At some point during that there was an article titled "The Revolt of the Spooks" or some such where the big pull quote from some former intelligence apparatchik went something like "I think most of us in the intelligence community feel a stronger loyalty to the continuity of the United States than we do to the person of the President".

I've drawn strange comfort from that quote this election cycle.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 8:32 PM on October 29, 2016 [16 favorites]

Gabe Sherman's NYMag piece offered a little bit of insight into the travel itinerary (other than the still-valid assumption that he likes sleeping in one of his own beds):

When she was promoted to campaign manager in mid-August, Conway met with Trump in his office on the 26th floor of Trump Tower. She told him two things: that he was losing and that he was running a joyless campaign. “What would make you happier in the job?” she asked.

“ ‘I miss flying around and giving rallies when it was just a couple of us on the plane,’ ” he told her.

So, it's because Don-don wants to fly his big plane and have lots of rallies and if he doesn't get to do that he has a sad.

Compare that to the Clinton campaign itinerary, which shows the value of having multiple surrogates to cover different states and regions within states and demographics. Even then, it's really focused: FL, NC, OH as true battlegrounds; CO, NH, WI in the second tier; IA as a coin-flip that's leaning redder this cycle; AZ as a stretch goal. PA is not on the itinerary until Katy Perry next Saturday. It's an electoral map that starts at 272.
posted by holgate at 8:36 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

We went to visit family in rural PA today. Living in Manhattan, we don't see many political signs, so I saw my first two Trump signs ever today, and quite a few Hillary ones. Most signs were just for local candidates.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:41 PM on October 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

I try to imagine what is so gross about police unions

It's the "them against us" attitude some of them adopt, where the "them" is not the boss in his nice office, but the people they serve, the people pay their salaries and benefits. It's the "we are the only ones standing in the way of anarchy" mindset assisted by easy access to military hardware, which is an attitude especially prominent in mostly-white areas near to cities with a larger minority population, but also prominent in diverse cities with non-diverse police forces. The prevailing American cop-union narrative is not that different from Trump's hallucination: with threats at every corner, live in fear, respect our authority, give us more hardware.

Teachers' unions are generally not like that.
posted by holgate at 8:42 PM on October 29, 2016 [40 favorites]

Teachers' unions are generally not like that.
Teachers don't carry military-grade weapons.

BLUE LIVES MATTER
MORE THAN YOURS
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:44 PM on October 29, 2016 [10 favorites]

GOTV report from Colorado Springs: finished my 10th canvass shift since 10/17. I'm terrible at keeping track for myself of how many doors were in each packet, but I'm pretty sure I've knocked on over 300 doors by now. I also sort of regret not having a fitbit or similar for tracking steps because I'm curious how many miles I've walked. One of the amazing volunteers in the office is working on a spreadsheet where she's tracking votes-per-canvasser and as of yesterday, I'm up to 86 people who've voted out of the ones I've canvassed.

Canvassing is a little weird, I started to notice that the further north I was, the more likely people were to tell me to "be careful" toward the end of our conversations or point out Trump supporting neighbors and tell me to not bother. I explained that we go out and talk to likely Dem voters. One guy who's supporting Hillary went on to tell me today that he felt sorry for Paul Ryan, and what a tough spot he's in trying to do anything with the Republicans in Congress, and I thought that he must be an immensely compassionate person to have sympathy for that wide-eyed, granny-starving jellyfish, but I didn't say anything. The best conversation today was with a man who told my daughter and me that he was a lifelong Republican from Texas, who'd switched his party affiliation and was happy to vote for Hillary. He can't support what the GOP is doing or their attempts to blame it on Democrats. It's affirming to meet people who have the courage to say it isn't right and vote for the person rather than party. I've signed up a few folks to volunteer and talked to more about phonebanking from home. It's fun to talk with folks who are enthusiastic about voting for Hillary or even better, who have already voted (and just not been stricken through yet), and it's frankly encouraging to see how well the operation is running--packets prepped and prioritized, calls going out to volunteers, data being entered. It's not flashy, but it's competent and it's working.
posted by danielleh at 8:45 PM on October 29, 2016 [58 favorites]

Apropos this thread in general, the Guardian today had (IMHO) a pretty good summary of Trumpism. I hope they're right that it will eventually pass....
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:48 PM on October 29, 2016 [2 favorites]

The prevailing American cop-union narrative is not that different from Trump's hallucination

I was thinking that. Or like the GOP's problem now. Spent so much time encouraging the gross elements to inflate membership; now that same group has them over a barrel. (Assuming they're at all unhappy with that situation in the first place, which might be giving them too much credit)
posted by ctmf at 8:52 PM on October 29, 2016

It makes sense as cover for a string of diamond heists.

That would be about the only way for Trump's entire presidential campaign to make any sense.

Has anyone checked for new Banksy pieces after each visit?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:54 PM on October 29, 2016 [19 favorites]

Harold MacGilvary, the Medford Patrolman's Association president who was photographed "locking up" Hillary Clinton, later issued the most textbook non-apology I have ever read:

"These were Halloween costumes. It was meant totally as a joke. I apologize if this offended anyone in any way. I never expected this sort of reaction. It was poor judgment on my part," said MacGilvray.

Shameful. Contemptuous. Not even trying to pretend he's sorry. The above is from this local news article, which is the most detail I can find on the incident at this time.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 9:03 PM on October 29, 2016 [6 favorites]

Friend who works at a Circle K downtown, near the Convention Center, just messaged me:

There was a zombie walk and a trump rally downtown today. Guess which brought in more freaks to circle k

I asked what kinds of things people buy as they're trying to make America great again, and he said mostly cigarettes and beer. "One bought a Corona, and I laughed."
posted by Superplin at 9:04 PM on October 29, 2016 [31 favorites]

zachlipton, that is choice. Say what you will about McMuffin, he can deliver a sick burn.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 9:24 PM on October 29, 2016

There was a zombie walk and a trump rally downtown today. Guess which brought in more freaks to circle k

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:31 PM on October 29, 2016 [32 favorites]

I try to imagine what is so gross about police unions

There's an essay in Jacobin that I can't find right now that argues the fundamental difference between police unions and other unions is that police are bosses, not labor. Ms. stet says, "Interesting. Even if they're labor within their own organization they're bosses for the rest of us."

So yeah, I kind of think that's the fundamental difference.
posted by stet at 9:38 PM on October 29, 2016 [71 favorites]

I mean, Egg does go on to say "we will not sit by while two corrupt, self-serving, big government liberals like you [Trump] and Clinton destroy our country," so don't praise him too much or anything.
posted by zachlipton at 9:59 PM on October 29, 2016 [18 favorites]

I was thinking that. Or like the GOP's problem now.

And like the NRA's sales pitch too, though in their case it's "don't trust the cops to save you!" which adds to the mess. But as the NRA is a marketing group for gun makers, the FOP is a kind of marketing group for ever-expanding police departments.
posted by holgate at 10:04 PM on October 29, 2016

> Next election, I hope we have TMBG-themed posts, because I could kill with the lyrical references.

A little late to this party, but:

Orange Man, Orange Man
Angry because he has the tiniest hands
How many wives? It's not important
Orange Man

Is he a threat? Or is he a mess?
Can he respect anyone in a dress?
A dumpster fire with no regrets
Deplorable Man, Deplorange Man
posted by Johann Georg Faust at 10:32 PM on October 29, 2016 [67 favorites]

I've been thinking R.E.M.'s Ignoreland would be good for an election day post title. Politically oriented and full of vitriol.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:38 PM on October 29, 2016 [9 favorites]

You wouldn't even have to modify TMBG's Your Racist Friend very much.
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:48 PM on October 29, 2016 [11 favorites]

New poll of Alaska:
10/21-10/26
Clinton 47% (+4)
Trump 43%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

Tweet
posted by melissasaurus at 11:11 PM on October 29, 2016 [29 favorites]

McMullin tweeted that his Principles for New American Leadership are up. I am fascinated.

Our nation was founded by courageous, principled Americans who took on the seemingly impossible fight ...

No, our nation was founded by courageous, principled English citizens who decided to do something else with their lives. That's how countries get founded. I mean, I guess you could call them "Americans" on the grounds that they lived on one of the the American continents, but that's quite a stretch.

1. Our basic rights are God-given. [life, liberty, pursuit of happiness]

I do note that he doesn't define "God." As a polytheist, I find that annoying. Which deity does he believe gave us those rights? He also doesn't define "rights." He lists them but doesn't say what makes them "rights."

[2, 3] Any changes to the Constitution must be made through the amendment process it provides, not by Judicial or Executive action.

He has several points that boil down to this. He does not specify the difference between "changes" and "interpretation to apply to circumstances that didn't exist when it was written." A strict definition of the Constitution would assume that "free speech" didn't include phone texting.

4. Our leaders must be honest and wise. Um, I thought he was going with strictly Constitutional approach. Nowhere in there - in any federal or state requirement for office, as far as I know - is "wisdom" nor "honesty" required.

[5] It is our civic duty to be informed and engaged on important issues

See above. Says who? And how will this "duty" be enforced--will the uninformed and disengaged be told they're not allowed to vote?

And from there he devolves into "government must be fiscally responsible, esp with entitlements" but "gov't has a responsibility to help people out of poverty" and "health care is a right."

Fascinatingly, he insists that our 2nd amendment rights must be protected. He does not say that any other amendments need special consideration.

My test for 2nd amendment rights politicians: Are they willing to hold their rallies and debates in open carry venues? If not, they're just blowing smoke; they don't want citizens to have the right to bear arms; they want some citizens to have the right to bear arms in some situations. Which is, hey, just what those of us on the screamin' liberal left want. We should be arguing over which citizens and which situations, not whether or not all people should have the right to carry guns all the time, anywhere they want.

9. We must protect life from birth to natural death. Huh. Does that mean he's anti-death-penalty? Somehow, I doubt it. Sneaky, that. On his issues page, it's conception to death, not birth to death.

A culture that subsidizes abortion on demand runs counter to the fundamental American belief in the potential of every person - it undermines the dignity of mother and child alike.

Did he... did he say that abortions should be banned because they're undignified?

Sorry about the long ramble; I'd tagged Egg as vaguely too-Repub-esque -for-me but hadn't really looked at the details yet.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:18 PM on October 29, 2016 [29 favorites]

Egg is a conservative, no question. And were he running against Clinton as a Republican he'd have very little support here. His stated positions in his Principles for New American Leadership are his beliefs, but in many different interviews, Tweets, or conversations I've read from him, he is a little more nuanced in some positive ways than most current Republicans seem to be.

His stance on religion is interesting in that his beliefs are laid out in the Principles, but he also constantly talks about freedom of religion, where America is a place for all religions and for those who have none. He's been explicit about including atheism in his discussion and strong in talking about religions other than Christianity. How he would square his Principles with his statements isn't entirely clear, and that goes towards many things he's said.

Since we have no real history of policies or positions beyond his recent claims, we can't easily point to a clear governing position he'd adopt, so the tension is between his conservatism, his more liberalesque statements, and, I suppose, his work for the CIA and Goldman Sachs.

His campaign so far has spent much more time and energy criticizing Trump and the Republican leadership than Clinton, and I mean a lot more with the leadership taking almost as much criticism as Trump himself. His complaints about Clinton are the standard "She's completely corrupt" style arguments, with a few pointed jabs at some specific event which has occurred since he's been running. The new email thing, for example. But he's generally been a lot more general in his criticism of Clinton and hasn't put much nuance or emphasis on it so far. That's surely in part due to his entering the race intentionally as a Trump spoiler, but the criticism of Republican leadership isn't as much a spoiler thing as it does go towards the suggestion he is really trying to build some alternative to the current brand of Republican.

In particular, he's vehemently anti-deplorable, and his main positive focus is on inclusion for all. The campaign has consistently been out front with denouncing sexism, racism, and one "true" religion stuff. His goal seeming to be to remove those things from any potential governing party, leaving them as isolated as possible on the fringes of our system. The campaign wants a "return" to "true" conservative values with more individual states control. But even within his calls for "true" conservatism, he shows more nuance than most Republicans, including things like wanting to improve choices for women to prevent pregnancies in his pro-life talks, allowing for the need for some strong central government when something truly is a federal issue (he's pro-medicare and SS for example, he wants to end Obamacare, but his criticism in part is because it leaves too many people uninsured and believes a state/market solution could work better, he wants to increase employee wages in part through wage supplements rather than just increasing the minimum wage, he wants to appoint judges who respect the original intent of the constitution like, allegedly, Scalia, but also has allowed that time has moved on and some issues need different considerations, he personally believes a marriage should be between a man and a woman, but considers the Obergefell decision to be defining and does not want it reopened, and so on. (Egg being 40 and unattached has raised some eyebrows on the right hinting at a connection to the above claim and/or the below one.)

A big interest of his, no surprise given his time with the CIA, is in our foreign policy. He's definitely pro-intervention in Syria, and back in March was giving speeches about what he calls the genocidal regime there. He was directly involved with bringing over Caesar from Syria, who's photographs were instrumental in shaping the direction of policy here and purport to show atrocities the Assad regime had carried out. His TEDx talk from March is online, and has many of those images. (Very graphic) There has been some doubt and criticism of Caesar and those images from some quarters, so I am not taking a position on them, just pointing out that is a key concern for Egg, so take that as you will. In a related way, if one does take a strong "once a spook always a spook" attitude, and Egg is just a CIA operative, then what all of the above suggests about CIA concerns with the Republican party is interesting.

As a one time contributor to the Egg campaign, and proud Egg for president bumper sticker owner, I figured I should try and look into his campaign as it goes along to see what my money is going for. While I'll be voting for Clinton, I'm still plenty intrigued by Egg and the goings on out west and haven't regretted giving him the cash so far.
posted by gusottertrout at 12:40 AM on October 30, 2016 [26 favorites]

You wouldn't even have to modify TMBG's Your Racist Friend very much.

At the risk of starting a 'what is the correct response to racist acquaintances?' derail, I get incredibly annoyed every time I see this half-hearted, party-leaving 'oh my poor white person feelings of hypocrisy' rip-off song mentioned on MetaFilter because The Special AKA said it first and without equivocation: if you have a racist friend now is the time, now is the time, for your friendship to end.
posted by jack_mo at 12:44 AM on October 30, 2016 [27 favorites]

Holy shit... The FBI doesn't even have a warrant for the emails that Comey wrote Congress about. I can hardly believe this.

This is really making clear to me how, even after Trump loses the election, having a party that is as far gone into denial and echo chamber land as the Republicans is a serious, serious threat.
posted by overglow at 12:56 AM on October 30, 2016 [37 favorites]

Oh, sorry, one last interesting tidbit about Egg and his TEDx talk was his final sales push. His pitched belief was that the US needed a true marketplace of competing ideas. He used Bosnia as his analogy for what he wants to see happen in Syria, claiming (essentially) that Clinton was given opportunity/forced to act by getting pushback from Senators in both parties, and without that further atrocities would have transpired. The larger suggestion then possibly being that Egg is looking for that same dynamic to occur in current politics and doesn't see that happening as it is. (Assuming his statements are actually his beliefs anyway.)
posted by gusottertrout at 12:59 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Mailed in my vote and I was happy to see that it got delivered and was counted by the time I checked online this week. Such a relief to have that done!

Also did some more phone banking for MeFites United. My most memorable call today was the man who -- after I introduced myself as a volunteer -- said, "Oh! God bless Hillary!" and "Trump is crazy!"
posted by rangefinder 1.4 at 1:15 AM on October 30, 2016 [31 favorites]

The Observer: 2006 Audio Emerges of Hillary Clinton Proposing Rigging Palestine Election

On September 5, 2006, Eli Chomsky was an editor and staff writer for the Jewish Press, and Hillary Clinton was running for a shoo-in re-election as a U.S. senator. Her trip making the rounds of editorial boards brought her to Brooklyn to meet the editorial board of the Jewish Press.

The tape was never released and has only been heard by the small handful of Jewish Press staffers in the room. According to Chomsky, his old-school audiocassette is the only existent copy and no one has heard it since 2006, until today when he played it for the Observer.

N.b.: The Observer is owned by Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:33 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

So Egg is a shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik but he's OUR shadowy morally ambiguous intelligence apparatchik!

I mean, Churchill said he'd ally with the Devil to fight Hitler.

he was talking about the russians, but same difference
posted by Itaxpica at 1:34 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Observer: 2006 Audio Emerges of Hillary Clinton Proposing Rigging Palestine Election

Scroll up. I'm not convinced her remarks, and all the Observer gave was a single sentence out of context framed in the most pro-Trump way imaginable, cannot more charitably be interpreted as more like "the US shouldn't have pushed for elections unless and until it was reasonably confident Hamas wasn't going to win." In any event, she clearly didn't propose rigging an election, as the headline suggests, because she made that comment after the election took place.
posted by zachlipton at 1:51 AM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

Even if she wanted the US to rig the election why would she ever say so to the press? It's ridiculous. "to determine" means "figure out who would win" as zachlipton says.
posted by Justinian at 1:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Zachlipton: Scroll up.

Oh, I missed your earlier post, sorry. Yeah, it's basically a pile of nothing; I just posted it here for completeness' sake. Anyone know if Eli Chomsky is related to Noam Chomsky? That really threw me when I read it the first time and missed his first name.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:02 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

The weird thing to me is that the tape is so isolated to just that fragment. If she dropped that kind of bombshell to several reporters and they understood it to be about rigging an election, shouldn't there be some kind of a follow-up question? And then the Observer takes the ridiculous leap of linking it to Trump's claims that this election is rigged, not to mention the weird stuff at the end about the Jewish Press protecting people in power.
posted by zachlipton at 2:03 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Trump presidency could provoke 'world disorder': Nobel Peace Prize winner Jose Ramos-Horta.

I and many of my friends, Nobel Peace Prize laureates, are extremely concerned with the tone of a presidential candidate Donald Trump in making disparaging remarks about migrants, about Muslims, and refugees.
posted by adept256 at 2:08 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Wait... wait... so Trump finding out about Egg does actually seem to have happened like that Downfall video I did many election threads ago?!

Damn. What an election.
posted by garius at 3:52 AM on October 30, 2016 [50 favorites]

I'm not sure how much of a derail this is, but for all of Massachusetts' bluer-than-thou status, Medford has historically been a little more red-based purple. When I was in high school (and Bill was in office), the school newspaper ran antiabortion editorials with explicit ties to Catholicism. (The editor ran the internal-narrative-of-a-fetus meme when the school was considering making condoms available to students.) We were also the site of a race riot that closed the school for a week.

Granted, this was back in the 90s, and some things may have changed since then...but if you grew up in this kind of tribal, conservative environment and no one tried to teach you that this was wrong, it's understandable that you'd think that campaigning while in uniform for a White supremacist presidential candidate was acceptable. I love my hometown, but it is not without its problems.
posted by pxe2000 at 3:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

that Downfall video I did many election threads ago?!

I didn't get to tell you at the time because I was late watching it, but that shit is HILARIOUS. Highly recommended, would LOL again.
posted by threeturtles at 4:03 AM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

I just don't see how he can believe attacking McMuffin now is anything other than a lose-lose for the Trump campaign:

1) It legitimizes Egg's candidacy for those Republicans in Utah looking for a not-Trump option
2) It raises Egg's profile on both a state and national stage.
3) It gives Egg the ability to throw out that zinger of a not-Trump tweet.

But then I suppose I'm trying to apply logic where none has existed for a long time. As always, Owen Ellickson nails it:

McMAHON: I saw your quote about the Mormon... Don, you did him a big favor.
TRUMP: Wheh? Come off it.
McMAHON: You babyfaced him!
TRUMP:

McMAHON: "Nobody's heard of the guy." Arrogant heel vs. fresh baby! You're DiBiase--
TRUMP: He's the 1-2-3 Kid.
McMAHON: And Pence is Virgil

TRUMP: McMullin slammed me! I'm gonna 3AM this creep so hard...
McMAHON: Don't do it, pally. Be strong.
TRUMP: Tweeting insults IS strong!

[Fake, obviously, for those unfamiliar with Ellickson's parallel universe where Trump is regularly chatting to WWE's Vince McMahon]
posted by garius at 4:17 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Do you think Agent Egg uses a scrambler?
posted by Devonian at 4:30 AM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

It’s remarkable really that even if Trump and McMullin split the conservative vote in Utah 50/50 it still doesn’t mean that Clinton will win. Although based on the 2012 results, in Washington D.C. you could split the Democratic vote evenly between eight candidates and the Republicans would still come in ninth.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 4:45 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

What's with the ABC news tracking poll? It's gone from Clinton +12 to Clinton +1 in one week. That seems... unlikely. (Note that the narrowing happened before the Comey bullshit).
posted by Justinian at 4:50 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

> NO STICKERS. Just I voted braclets.

Yeah, no stickers in Chicago because this is why we can't have nice things. But the new wristbands are pretty bitchin! Saw one on Thursday and was immediately jealous.

(Though I have to say, I don't understand how it solves the problem. I mean, can't wristbands get stuck places too? And wristband advesive is so much stonger than sticker adhesive.)

> Made mine big so I can wear it till Nov. 8th.

Yes! VOTE EARLY, VOTE OFTEN.
posted by Westringia F. at 5:16 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

What's with the ABC news tracking poll? It's gone from Clinton +12 to Clinton +1 in one week. That seems... unlikely. (Note that the narrowing happened before the Comey bullshit).

My understanding is that they modified their likely voter calculation. Not sure how, but only a methodology change explains the jump.
posted by dis_integration at 5:26 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

This might make me a bad person but I hate those damn stickers. Sign me up for team receipt.
posted by gusottertrout at 5:28 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Changing methodology halfway through an experiment is hella unscientific, though. If that's what they did, their results are no longer comparable to previous iterations of the poll, and also they no longer have a randomly-selected sample. It would totally invalidate all their work. You can't just change the rules when you don't like the results you're getting and expect people to take you seriously.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:31 AM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Man, we don't get anything in Pittsburgh except a weird little stub torn off the weird little carnival ticket we give to the guy who sets up our voting machine before we vote.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:34 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

I got a rock.
posted by kyrademon at 5:38 AM on October 30, 2016 [30 favorites]

Now you just need a piece of string.
posted by Grangousier at 5:42 AM on October 30, 2016 [17 favorites]

Hillary has got this

Hello from England, where in just the last few months alone:

- The national football team were beaten by Iceland.
- The national cricket team were beaten by Bangladesh.
- Brexit.

Also, it's 2016. Assume nothing.
posted by Wordshore at 5:51 AM on October 30, 2016 [68 favorites]

I just read a little about the ABC poll. The shift isn't from people moving away from Clinton so much as Trump voters reporting that they are more likely to actually go vote. The likely voter modeling thus shifts, and if the poll is reporting on likely voters, that's going to have an impact on the numbers.

Now is the time to GOTV, my friends.

I'm just trying to make it through the next week, and after that I will confront more seriously the deep despair I'm feeling over what this means about the people I share this country with. I can't go too far down that rabbit hole right now. I might never come out.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:52 AM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Nothing was less surprising than England being beaten by Iceland.
posted by corvine at 5:54 AM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

A friend of mine is a polling place worker here in Pittsburgh, I should ask him why we don't get stickers.
posted by octothorpe at 5:55 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh and going way back to Mr. Anonymous Former R Congressperson:

FUCK YOU SO MUCH, BUDDY. You're afraid of bodily harm? My rage really is just beyond reckoning at this spineless, useless piece of shit and all the other cowardly pieces of shit like him. This is the rage that's going to fuel me on my canvassing shift today. I'm proud to go out there and represent the forces of tolerance and love out there, which is a greater feeling of fulfillment than this soulless ghoul will ever know.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:59 AM on October 30, 2016 [56 favorites]

I'm just trying to make it through the next week, and after that I will confront more seriously the deep despair I'm feeling over what this means about the people I share this country with. I can't go too far down that rabbit hole right now. I might never come out.

What I'm thinking is that assuming Clinton wins, we have another four years to get our shit together. I'm coming out of this different than I went in - there's different work to be done than I thought, and I am more willing to work on electoral stuff. I bet I'm not the only one. People are going to scatter to their various projects after this election, and people here who are together in rooting for Clinton are going to split up because many of us will oppose many of the things her government does. But - as we know from history - the weight of multiple left and liberal projects happening simultaneously is a big deal and they tend to reinforce cultural shift.

It's not that midterms aren't important, it's not that nothing can happen between presidential elections, it's not that we won't have three years until the campaigning begins again...but we'll have some breathing room and we need to use it.

So what we've learned is that we share this country with people who are far more racist, misogynist and violent than we believed - even if we believed they were pretty bad before. Sure, we can sit with that, but basically it's time to figure out how to bring the fight. If they want culture war, we can all bring that on all kinds of levels, and if we can win this election we can win that fight.
posted by Frowner at 6:01 AM on October 30, 2016 [55 favorites]

I just want one -- ONE -- of them to stand up and say, "wow, you know what? I really fucked up and spent a really long time not listening to POC and women and low-income people, and I used my platform to hurt a lot of people, and now I'm going to sit down and shut up for a bit. The only time you're going to hear from me for the next X number of months is when I'm sharing what I'm learning or amplifying the voices that I spent so much time silencing."

Yes, there's Derek Black, but more along the lines of Erick Erickson, there's John Cole of balloon-juice.com fame.
posted by NoMich at 6:09 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

I early voted yesterday, and while it's pretty forgone that nobody I voted for will win in blood-red Louisiana, at least I got my Blue Dog I Voted sticker.
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

About Those Odds-of-Winning Projections.

There are quite a few sites out there giving "odds" that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency, and they are all over the place. Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight actually have three different calculations, which give Clinton a 79%, 81.1%, and 80.4% chance, respectively. The New York Times pegs it at 91%, while PredictWise says it's 87%, and the Princeton Election Consortium thinks it's 99%. This is an enormous spread—20 points!—and they obviously can't all be right. In fact, they can't even all be close. Slate's staff, for their part, has thrown up their hands and decided to average all the others, giving Clinton an 86% chance of winning.

posted by Coventry at 6:15 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

This election campaign since the conventions (GIF)
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:16 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

there's John Cole of balloon-juice.com fame

Yeah, he migrated out of the wingnut fever swamps some years ago, I think? Maybe around the twilight hours of the W. administration.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:19 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Still, I'm going "I don't grok how anyone could believe those aren't his real policies, and be voting for him without knowing what his 'real policies' are, if those are not they." The sheer mental contortions involved here are maddening.

This is actually a perfect example of how subliminal persuasion, as some of the people who have tried to explain the method behind Trump's word salad have tried to tell us, actually works.

The theory, which is pretty well borne out by the success of the advertising industry, is that humans are not rational. We make decisions based on feelings and impressions which are often beneath even our own conscious perception, and it is these impressions which the advertiser and propagandist seek to create with repetition, conceptual linking, and other techniques. ("Obama founded isis" kind of flopped but "crooked Hillary" turned into what these dudebros call a "linguistic kill shot.") When we are challenged on such a decision after we have settled on it, only then do we rationalize it. And as this encounter perfectly illustrates, even a failure to successfully rationalize often won't change our mind.
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:23 AM on October 30, 2016 [26 favorites]

I don't think those skeletons are part of it anymore...
posted by schmod at 6:24 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

I'd been worried I haven't been doing enough in this election because I live in the UK. But I just found out that Democrats Abroad has a phone bank operation to make sure people are getting in their mail-in ballots. So, I guess I'll be doing some phone banking this week ...
posted by kyrademon at 6:26 AM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

I don't think those skeletons are part of it anymore...

Nah, they wised up and took the gig with David S. Pumpkins.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 6:31 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Two former Deputy AGs, one D one R, unload on Comey.

James Comey is damaging our democracy
posted by chris24 at 6:32 AM on October 30, 2016 [28 favorites]

From the breathlessly titled Trump tears into US judicial system (CNN) we see the two modes of communication at work as reported by a Mainstream outlet.

TRUMP: Rah rah rah, Graaar, Me Me. Rigged stupid loser country!

CLINTON: This announcement from Director Comey, of which little substance can be said to be found within, is terrible. As Americans, our chief concern is fairness under the law and these misleading zzzzzznnnnkkkkk

When I hear people whom I otherwise would have described as intelligent, articulate, reasonable people discuss the election, THAT's what I hear them talking about. "They're both so terrible" . . . to read about. One's offensive and the other has committed the crime of being boring.
*waves away the vapors*

The burden is on the media- mainstream or otherwise- to bring the light of truth to these campaigns and they are as uninterested and incompetent at their tasks as Donald is.

Note for 2018: we need the Mtv-style-bumper aesthetic for Dem races. Somebody goose a SuperPAC while the rest of us fire up, and learn how to use, Final Cut Pro. Meet back here in 18 months. Ready? Break!
posted by petebest at 6:36 AM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

Always with the negative waves, Wordshore, always with the negative waves!
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:39 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

I just want one -- ONE -- of them to stand up and say, "wow, you know what? I really fucked up and spent a really long time not listening to POC and women and low-income people, and I used my platform to hurt a lot of people, and now I'm going to sit down and shut up for a bit. The only time you're going to hear from me for the next X number of months is when I'm sharing what I'm learning or amplifying the voices that I spent so much time silencing."

It strikes me that we've seen that happen, but whenever they do, they get a lot of blowback like, "screw that guy, why didn't he do it sooner?"

So maybe that's why they all plead family stuff, in an effort to deflect that kind of hassle.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:40 AM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

@LOLGOP:
Republicans are so upset about email security that they're basing their entire campaign on hacked emails.
posted by chris24 at 6:49 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K?

Or strange things ate a foot at the Circle K?
posted by entropicamericana at 6:50 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

No warrant
No warrant
You're the warrant

Weiner hands over laptop, warrant may not be required (cw:NYPost, Fox, Weiner: wash your hands before returning to thread)

Oh and while we're in here, 33,000 'deleted' emails may have always been available.. Multiple storage locations. FBI never asked.

[Emphasis added below]
The Platte River Networks executive, whose name was redacted from the interview report, said PRN tech Paul Combetta “created a ‘vehicle’ to transfer email files from the live mailboxes of [Clinton Executive Services Corp.] email accounts [and] then later used BleachBit software to shred the ‘vehicle,’ but the email content still existed in the live email accounts.”

Unless one of Clinton’s aides had the capability to log in to the PRN server as an administrator and remove a mailbox, her archived mailboxes more than likely still reside somewhere in that system. And they may also materialize on an internal “shared drive” that PRN created to control access to the Clinton email accounts among PRN employees. PRN has been under FBI order to preserve all emails and other evidence since the start of its investigation last year.

Clinton’s missing “personal” emails may also be captured on a Google server. According to FBI notes, Combetta “transferred all of the Clinton email content to a personal Google email address he created.” Only the FBI never subpoenaed Google to find out.
posted by petebest at 6:52 AM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

The close relationship between police and prosecutors is such that there absolutely need to be independent prosecutors to deal with police misconduct.

I always thought it would be natural to have a higher level of government investigate police misconduct at a lower level i.e. Feds investigate state police which investigate local police but it is one of those neat ideas which have nothing to do with how politics work.
posted by shothotbot at 6:54 AM on October 30, 2016

Accoriding to the NYPost, Trump offered Christie the VP slot. Manafort got him to change his mind by faking mechanical problems with his plane. Yeah, he'd be great with the decisions of president.

Trump offered Christie his VP slot - Then rescinded it
posted by chris24 at 6:56 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

*wavy daydream effect*

CLINTON: Found 'em. All 33,000 emails up on the campaign website. Go nuts.
TRUMP: We're gonna read these bigly, they'll be so crooked
CLINTON: HA!

"Hail to the Chief" plays as Hillary waves from Inaugural podium

*wavy daydream effect*
/harp
posted by petebest at 6:57 AM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Guardian: Inside a Donald Trump rally
The video is scary.
I get the impression that many Trump voters feel that they have nothing to loose. Not so much in terms of their livelihoods as in terms of the values and yes, politics they have believed in. They are not all that stupid: I think a lot of them can see they have been had by the Republican party for the last two decades or more. Remember how Kellyanne threatened the Republican members of Congress with revealing their sex scandals if they turned against Trump - they are all corrupt, cheating, lying a..holes, and the electorate knows it. So why not choose someone who is openly a crook? Who talks from the gut(ter)? Who will threaten and bully the clown congress into submission.
It seems a lot of people (not only in this article, I've seen it many times), voted for Obama back in 08, and were disappointed that he couldn't deliver, so they are not going back for more of the same with Hillary.
And then, for the type of people who attend the rallies, it's fun. I think we all know people who enjoy doing and saying things they know are bad, because they enjoy seeing our shocked faces. It's the only power they have and get to wield, after all. Heck, I have a friend who says disgusting things, and his politics and actual doings are the exact opposite, he is to the left of me, he actually uses every penny he has to support and immigrant family. I really don't get why he does the offensive stuff - maybe it's a form of tourettes.
Long winding thought ended: to change the Trumpists, you need to get the corruption out of American politics. Good luck with that..
posted by mumimor at 6:57 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, this probably makes most people feel worse, but: The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does [538].
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:05 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Anyway, nobody really knows how email works. I don't; my internet provider's tech support does SO not know how e mail works (especially mine); my spammers don't really know (or their stuff would look different from how it looks); Hillary doesn't; Donald doesn't; nor apparently do the investigators.
Yeah, let's turn to tax returns. We know how those work.
posted by Namlit at 7:05 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

So, this probably makes most people feel worse, but: The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does [538].

So did the Cleveland Cavaliers.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:10 AM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

From the Guardian article:
When I ask Urban about how, as a woman, she feels about Trump’s self-confessed sexually predatory behavior, she gets indignant. “I’m sick and tired of this being brought up. Words come out in the wrong way at times; you put your foot in your mouth. I don’t think Donald Trump is remotely derogatory to women.”

. . . . Whats that thing to say when words fail?
posted by petebest at 7:10 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Words come out in the wrong way at times; you put your foot in your mouth.

Small hands come out in the wrong way at times, too.
posted by Slothrup at 7:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Good news from Florida:

In FL, 36% of likely voters say they have already voted, and they are breaking for Clinton, 54-37

Among those who haven't, Trump up 51-42

posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

In firey rebuke, Ryan un-endorses Trump, says 'America is more important'*

*Ha! Naaah just s**ttin' ya. He's still cowarding it up in true Count Chocula granny-starver fashion. Staying away from his challenger, refusing to speak in recognized words. As a true leader does.
posted by petebest at 7:19 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

Both 36%*54% + 64%*42% and 36%*37% + 64%*51% are roughly 46%. That doesn't seem like good news.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 7:19 AM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Why does the exact probability at any given moment matter so much so many?

Statistics is hard, although polling is not really rocket science in the scheme of things. An exact number is easy to understand (and sell), and most people are bad at math.

And finally, a cry: why isn't basic statistics a requirement for a high school diploma in the modern world?

Too close to the same skill set needed to understand credit cards and student loan interest.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:21 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

octothorpe: "A friend of mine is a polling place worker here in Pittsburgh, I should ask him why we don't get stickers."

I did email him and his answers is:

Because the county is too cheap. This year, I bought them myself on Amazon to give to the voters in my precinct, but they won't reimburse me.

posted by octothorpe at 7:22 AM on October 30, 2016 [22 favorites]

The thing is, not all likely voters actually vote, and one of the big questions in this election is what turnout is going to look like. The 36% are people who already voted. The other 64% may or may not actually get to the polls. This is a thing that looks like a math problem but is actually not.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:22 AM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

Mitch McConnell: True Leaders Say Nothing

As he's made the rounds in his home state of Kentucky this month, McConnell has either ducked reporters' questions or explicitly refused to address the topic he acknowledged was on everyone's mind: his party's presidential nominee.

At a local Chamber of Commerce event in Danville, McConnell twice instructed the crowd not to ask him about the presidential race "even though that's what I know you all wanted me to talk about."

Our party is fine! Everything's great! Uh, uh, hey look, a dog!
posted by petebest at 7:27 AM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

I live in Medford and those photos are (a) par for the course and (b) depressing.
posted by pxe2000 at 10:06 PM on October 29 [3 favorites +] [!]

I live in your neighboring Melrose, where I've encountered exactly one Trump/Pence bumper sticker and no other evidence their campaign exists. Roomie claims to have seen a few lawn signs while walking the dog.

The only bright side is, in MA these idiots are surrounded by hordes of inoculating true-blue dems who wouldn't vote for Trump with a gun to their heads.
posted by invincible summer at 7:31 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Both 36%*54% + 64%*42% and 36%*37% + 64%*51% are roughly 46%. That doesn't seem like good news.

100% of those who have already voted will vote. An indeterminate number, but definitely less than 100% of those who haven't voted, will vote.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 7:32 AM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

The thing is, not all likely voters actually vote, and one of the big questions in this election is what turnout is going to look like.
That's a good point.

This is a thing that looks like a math problem but is actually not.
...Instead of demanding the third duel this thread, I'll just point to Horace Rumpole's comment above.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 7:36 AM on October 30, 2016

*Ha! Naaah just s**ttin' ya. He's still cowarding it up in true Count Chocula granny-starver fashion. Staying away from his challenger, refusing to speak in recognized words. As a true leader does.

You gotta hand it to Donald. He doesn't let himself get constrained by political norms while the rest of the political world desperately tries to stay above street level and not get dragged into the sewer with Donald.

As soon as Donald fired shots Ryan should have just been publicly "fuck this, I'm out, Good luck, Donald". Donald is publicly shitting on him and he just stays meekly in the corner. The Freedom Caucus has already decided it's going to make a shitshow of the speakership in order to make sure the government doesn't even function and will shut down if they don't get their way (since the electorate sure as hell isn't punishing their intransigence). Plus they can just blame any shutdown on Ryan anyway while going back to their districts and boasting about how they stopped the Feds from spending your money for a few days/weeks.

Maybe Ryan feels buoyed by the fact he can just shut his mouth and win the internal party room election and shame the rest of the crazies into line with the magic words "Speaker Pelosi" since he sure as hell can't win if it's declared they're going for a plurality instead of majority.

December 7 is going to be a barrel of fucking laughs.
posted by Talez at 7:36 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hey I live in Melrose too! We need more suburban meet ups obviously.

30% of MA voters support Trump. And they are loud af.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:36 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Weiner hands over laptop, warrant may not be required (cw:NYPost, Fox, Weiner: wash your hands before returning to thread)

The only surprising thing about that story is the New York Post rose above the urge to call it a "faptop."
posted by zarq at 7:38 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

30% of MA voters support Trump. And they are loud af.

My mantra for the last 24 hours since seeing those Trumpkins on my town's corner: Better here than New Hampshire.

That's the great part about Hillary supporters being educated. They understand the electoral college exists and that 4 EVs are in danger right above them.

Trump supporters on the other hand will gladly tilt at windmills trying to turn MA red.
posted by Talez at 7:39 AM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

I did email him and his answers is:
Because the county is too cheap. This year, I bought them myself on Amazon to give to the voters in my precinct, but they won't reimburse me.

Aw crap. I finally registered to vote (and I'm in PGH) and now I don't get a little reward for voting. Guess I'll have to treat myself to a sundae at Klavon's.
posted by Catblack at 7:41 AM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Marcy Wheeler: The Story About Judicial Dsyfunction Behind the Comey Whiplash

This is a good example of the cost of such investigations. Because the FBI can and does sweep so widely in searches of electronic communications, evidence from one set of data collection can be used to taint others unrelated to the crime under investigation.

All the people writing scathing emails about Comey’s behavior in this particular matter would like you to believe that this issue doesn’t reflect on larger issues at DOJ. They would like you to believe that DOJ was all pure and good and FBI was well-controlled except for this particular investigation. But that’s simply not the case, and some of these issues go well beyond Comey.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:44 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Scott Adams nearly dislocates shoulder patting himself on the back for his political acumen (WaPo).

And there's this:

“My speaking career ended because of this,” the Bay Area-based cartoonist said of his once-lucrative side business.

Although his book sales have stayed healthy, Adams said that many off-put readers now view “Dilbert” through more critical glasses, which has affected his licensing sales. All told, Adams said, his income has dipped precipitously.

so, karma.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:51 AM on October 30, 2016 [53 favorites]

@samsteinhp:
Pete Williams reports that Comey is UNLIKELY to say anything more before the election
posted by chris24 at 7:54 AM on October 30, 2016

It seems to me Comey might not even have a job on Election Day.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:56 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

I just caught five minutes of Face the Nation while getting fast food breakfast. I know I'm a naive person, but I didn't realize the state of political discourse was this bad.

Mike Pence: It's extremely troubling that former president Clinton had a private clandestine meeting with the attorney general and two days later the investigation was closed without charges.

Host: Are you saying that the attorney general put pressure on the FBI director?

MP: I'm not saying that, you're saying that.

Host: Then why bring it up?

MP: It's extremely troubling that former president Clinton had a private clandestine meeting with the attorney general and two days later the investigation was closed without charges.
posted by Jeanne at 7:57 AM on October 30, 2016 [30 favorites]

100% of those who have already voted will vote. An indeterminate number, but definitely less than 100% of those who haven't voted, will vote..

On preview, yep. Nobody has anything resembling a straight answer for how likely a likely voter is to vote, but the one number I could find put it at about 80%. If we assume that that's 80% of people who haven't voted yet, and all likely voters are equally motivated, that puts Clinton about 1.5% ahead of trump.

If we assume it's 80% of the entire electorate, and that the people who have already voted are part of the "actually going to make it to the polls" 80% then Clinton's share rises to like 2.5%. Assume that the early voting numbers are also a predictor of how likely each candidate's supporters are to actually bother to vote and it gets better for her still (thought that seems pretty unlikely).
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 7:59 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Well Bob Goodlatte got up on This Week and referred to HRC's "potential impeachment" in the House. Coming from the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, this is utterly stupefying.
posted by Talez at 8:08 AM on October 30, 2016 [17 favorites]

Volokh: Does expanding the FBI’s investigation from the unrelated case to the Clinton case violate the Fourth Amendment?
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

Well Bob Goodlatte got up on This Week and referred to HRC's "potential impeachment" in the House. Coming from the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, this is utterly stupefying.

It's really not. If she wins and the Republican control the House, she will be impeached. That's just a fact. Just like that the Senate will not confirm any Supreme Court pick. Like John McCain said.

Republicans don't have a policy agenda for a Clinton presidency. It's obstruction and Brietbart world full time, non-stop. They can't do anything else, and their base would turn on them if they tried, or refused to take the next logical steps.

They're telling us exactly what they plan on doing, which was obvious anyway. We should believe them.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:17 AM on October 30, 2016 [63 favorites]

garius, that was hilarious. I hadn't seen it yet, either, and I thank you for giving the link again. Good job!
posted by Silverstone at 8:29 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

electoral-vote.com has Trump at 191 today. The change was Ohio going from Barely GOP to tied. Come on Ohio, you can do this.
posted by cashman at 8:35 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Impeachment of Clinton would be catastrophic for Republicans. It would look brazenly political in a way that pisses off the supposed independent voter and Clinton would just ignore it because there is zero chance the Senate would act on it.

The judicial filibuster is gone assuming that the Senate results in Democratic control. Slam in a Scalia and RBG replacement and laugh at Republican impotence.
posted by vuron at 8:37 AM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Wow. Bush's White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter says he's filed a Hatch Act violation complaint against James Comey.
posted by chris24 at 8:41 AM on October 30, 2016 [74 favorites]

Impeachment of Clinton would be catastrophic for Republicans. It would look brazenly political in a way that pisses off the supposed independent voter

I'm not so sure the latter implies the former. Quite the opposite, in fact. The Republicans aren't interested in governing at the federal level anymore. They're paid performers for the right-wing media.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:41 AM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

GOP mailers: Watch for new ISIS ‘neighbors’ in Kansas
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:41 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Comey is toast. He won't be pushed out until after the election but he has zero credibility both inside and outside of the FBI.

The fact that he gave Chaffetz a briefing before releasing a letter and no advanced warning to Democrats makes him look like a partisan hack.
posted by vuron at 8:45 AM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

@Mbhokie97:
Man hangs black mannequins in tree next to his Trump yard sign. Claims just "Halloween". This is why I don't give a shit about those emails. [image]
posted by chris24 at 8:49 AM on October 30, 2016 [31 favorites]

Volokh: Does expanding the FBI’s investigation from the unrelated case to the Clinton case violate the Fourth Amendment?

(FYI: That's Orin Kerr's work, not Eugene Volokh's.)
posted by notyou at 8:50 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Dumb and destructive is their brand, they are not going to deviate from it. Maybe some conservative "moderates" or "intellectuals" will make a vague noise about it and pine for the days of actually giving a fuck a bout things, but nobody gives a shit what those guys think.
posted by Artw at 8:50 AM on October 30, 2016

33 Things This Election Will Decide That Have Nothing to Do With Trump or Clinton

A marijuana wave, a bisexual governor, the first state carbon tax, and other small revolutions Nov. 8 could bring.

posted by kirkaracha at 8:54 AM on October 30, 2016 [18 favorites]

Jeanne, that exchange reminds me of one from earlier in the campaign between Chris Matthews and Carly Fiorina, in which she robotically repeats "They've been married for a very long time" in response to Matthews' questions about her bringing up Bill Clinton. I wonder if she and Pence both had the same media interview coach who told them to simply repeat their talking points in response to questions that they thought might be leading them to places that they didn't want to go, to stay on message.
posted by Halloween Jack at 9:00 AM on October 30, 2016

Also, that Downfall parody: "Chris Christie speaks Juggalo." Hilarious.
posted by Halloween Jack at 9:01 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

33,000 'deleted' emails may have always been available.

In one of the debates, Trump said he'd release his taxes when Clinton released the 33k deleted emails. Clinton should find out who/what storage server has a copy and hand them all over, release 'em to the public (I doubt there's anything more damning in them than what's already been released), and then say, "your turn, Donald... or were you lying about that, too?"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:16 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Usually Downfall parodies are good for a couple chuckles but ye gods, there's some serious laugh out loud moments there. Well done indeed. "Mein Donald".
posted by Ber at 9:21 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

you want to give out a ton of source material for people to make up deranged clinton conspiracies because you're trying to shame donald trump?

I think there might be problems with this plan
posted by ryanrs at 9:22 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Downfall parodies never work for me, I can actually understand german.
posted by Pendragon at 9:22 AM on October 30, 2016 [32 favorites]

So in Comey's report, he alleges that Clinton was extremely careless because she did not follow department procedures.

Then it turns out that in releasing this recent letter, Comey defied the recommendations of his superiors at the Justice Department and refused to have his letter reviewed by the Justice Department Public Integrity Division as is required by department policy when related to elections.

Which raises the important question -- is this ironic? I'm always unsure after the Alanis Morrissette flap.
posted by JackFlash at 9:24 AM on October 30, 2016 [89 favorites]

Downfall parodies: German speakers must read the subtitles without sound. Otherwise it's a crappy experience on all levels.
posted by Namlit at 9:25 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Which raises the important question -- is this ironic? I'm always unsure after the Alanis Morrissette flap.

I think it's just a dick move, is all.
posted by dersins at 9:26 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump offered Christie the VP slot. Manafort got him to change his mind by faking mechanical problems with his plane.

...thus forcing him to spend a night away from his own bed and have dinner with the Pence family. It cements the idea that Trump's decisions and beliefs are based upon the last person he speaks to, like a voice recorder that overwrites itself every time you press 'record'.

I think Sarah Kendzior (again) made an important point: the weeks where Clinton isn't in the same room as Trump have become weeks when the press -- in spite of being abused on the ground and bullshitted in the studio -- normalises the abuse and bullshit and Actual Fascism, because the horserace is the model and everything has to be rammed into it. That's gruesome.

John Cole of Balloon Juice was always a libertarian-minded Republican, but the behaviour of senior elected GOPers in the Terri Schiavo case was the last straw.
posted by holgate at 9:29 AM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

you want to give out a ton of source material for people to make up deranged clinton conspiracies because you're trying to shame donald trump?
I think there might be problems with this plan

I'm working from the assumption that if the FBI has identified likely locations of those emails, they're on target to be released, either via hack or FOIA demand, and Hillary should take advantage of Donald's "make an offer based on something that's never going to happen" strategy to remind people that he doesn't follow through on his promises.

If the emails aren't likely to go public without her releasing them, then she should consider whether what's in them is likely to cause any more wacky conspiracy theory activity than is already going on.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:30 AM on October 30, 2016

Eichenwald on Joy-Ann Reid: James Comey's Letter Could Damage The Reputation Of The FBI For Years To Come
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:30 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

> I'm conflicted about police unions as well.

The thing is, there is a serious problem with policing in this country that anyone with the slightest bit of objectivity can see.

It harms people of color and innocent people who are harassed and/or convicted, poor people, homeless, etc etc etc very directly.

But it ALSO harms the police officers themselves, and the police departments, and the ability of police departments to keep the peace and accomplish their stated mission.

My point is, you would **EXPECT** police unions to be leading the charge to solve the problem that the police are having right now. They are in a unique position to do so. And they are using their power quite literally for evil instead of for good.

I wouldn't expect a police union to come at this problem the way a typical MeFier would, because their entire job is to represent the view of the typical police officer on the beat. But precisely because they do represent that view, if they approached the issue from a place of "This is a serious problem to be solve, here is the police viewpoint of how to solve it" they would be a very valuable voice in the public discussion this country needs to have now.

Instead, they simply deny, deny, deny and justify to the hilt the necessity of their members being able to beat or murder anyone they feel necessary for any reason they feel necessary.

And that position undermines the rule of law in the U.S. rather than supporting it.
posted by flug at 9:32 AM on October 30, 2016 [51 favorites]

if the FBI has identified likely locations of those emails, they're on target to be released

There's not enough time before the election for the FBI to get its shit together, especially if they're careful about following procedure after Comey's fuckup.
posted by ryanrs at 9:33 AM on October 30, 2016

It strikes me that we've seen that happen, but whenever they do, they get a lot of blowback like, "screw that guy, why didn't he do it sooner?"

So maybe that's why they all plead family stuff, in an effort to deflect that kind of hassle.

This is also why I think it's so important to react to people saying stuff like that with empathy and compassion. What they really deserve is a, "Why'd it take so long?" but that just discourages others. We need to encourage and support more of that behavior so ignore what they deserve and go with what's effective. You're not doing it for them, you're doing for all the people that will be helped by others who finally screw up the empathy and courage to change their ways.
posted by VTX at 9:35 AM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

If a president is going to break the precedent of "FBI directors don't get fired and never resign", it'll have to be Obama and not Clinton. It makes the transition a messy one, but I'm sure he'd be fine spending a day or two in a House hearing telling Jason Chaffetz and Bob Goodlatte to eat shit, and if they have a case to make, make it fast because Sasha's got an after-school thing.
posted by holgate at 9:41 AM on October 30, 2016 [58 favorites]

Pendragon: Downfall parodies never work for me, I can actually understand german.

Yeah, well, you know who else understood German?
posted by emelenjr at 9:46 AM on October 30, 2016 [27 favorites]

In re police unions: police unions (and prison guard unions to a lesser degree) function differently than most other unions. Most unions are organized in opposition to the elite - they are organized to get working people a better deal in spite of union busting, etc. Because the police protect the interests of the elite (as you can see from their general alignment with Trump, general racism, etc) they have a different relationship to the state and the rich than, say, a teachers' union. Police union members are used by the state to bust down other working class people - to bust people for loitering, to police protests, to put people in jail over petty shit, to roust sleeping homeless people, and to intimidate strikers from other unions. This is why they tend to have different values than even your average conservative union and why they have way more scope to express those values. A police union is a state-endorsed association for supporting the state's monopoly on violence. For this reason, it will always have more power than other unions and face less sanction when it protects its members. If a teachers' union says that someone is being fired unfairly, oh, well, we should get rid of all unions and not look into the cause of the firing; if the police union says one of their members shouldn't be excused for murdering someone, why, that's fine.
posted by Frowner at 9:46 AM on October 30, 2016 [37 favorites]

"FBI directors don't get fired and never resign"

William Sessions?
posted by mikelieman at 9:47 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Getting yelled at while canvassing was bound to happen eventually, and if you had your money on "shitty Bernie supporters" please come forward and collect your winnings. They were awful and all I said when they started was thanks, in that case I'll be on my way and they kept yelling as I was walking down the street. Apparently I "NEED TO KNOW I'M SUPPORTING A CROOK!!!!!" Which is right next to my "wake up, sheeple!" bingo square.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:47 AM on October 30, 2016 [99 favorites]

HuffPo: This Billionaire Governor Taxed the Rich and Increased the Minimum Wage — Now, His State’s Economy Is One of the Best in the Country

The reason Gov. Dayton was able to radically transform Minnesota’s economy into one of the best in the nation is simple arithmetic. Raising taxes on those who can afford to pay more will turn a deficit into a surplus. Raising the minimum wage will increase the median income. And in a state where education is a budget priority and economic growth is one of the highest in the nation, it only makes sense that more businesses would stay.

It’s official — trickle-down economics is bunk. Minnesota has proven it once and for all. If you believe otherwise, you are wrong.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:49 AM on October 30, 2016 [134 favorites]

They're telling us exactly what they plan on doing, which was obvious anyway. We should believe them.

There will also be a government shutdown. We're getting all the letters and admin prepped now, and moving critical work out of December. See, even the credible threat of a shutdown costs you (and me) the taxpayers truckloads of money.
posted by ctmf at 9:49 AM on October 30, 2016 [41 favorites]

I find that Downfall parodies have begun slowly reawakening my long dormant German language skills. I now get about 25% of it -- which is just enough to be distracting from the subtitles.
posted by humanfont at 10:02 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ugh, soren_lorensen. I'm so sorry that happened to you. I always feel nervous approaching houses with Bernie signs out for fear of the same thing, but so far, so good.
posted by Superplin at 10:03 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

flug: exactly. I definitely have a plan for my first 100 days as Honcho of All Police Unions. It involves a wrecking ball and an all-hands "new sheriff in town, get on board or GTFO" YFG speech. This is exactly why I will never achieve the position of HoAPU, and neither will anyone else that agrees with us. That's why I'm afraid artw is right; we'll have to burn them all down and start over.

But hopefully target that with a fine enough focus to not burn down ALL public employee unions, because they aren't all (or even mostly) like that and the collateral damage could be worse.
posted by ctmf at 10:04 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

WeThose of us with the remaining emotional bandwidth after years of abuse from these assholes and who are also reasonably assured of our safety need to encourage and support more of that behavior so ignore what they deserve and go with what's effective. You're not doing it for them, you're doing for all the people that will be helped by others who finally screw up the empathy and courage to change their ways.

Important correction.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:05 AM on October 30, 2016 [18 favorites]

I have repeatedly asked at the polls for a sticker, and every time I'm greeted with ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by pxe2000 at 10:07 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Is it better for Utah dems to vote for McMullin in hopes of denying Trump the electoral votes, or go for Hilllary because it's close and she may win?
posted by humanfont at 10:08 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Ground report from New Hampshire: so far I've gotten two empty houses and two houses of enthusiastic Hillary supporters who are excited to vote.
posted by pxe2000 at 10:09 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Heavens. In my near-metrowest suburb, I was positively lavished with voting stickers. Next time I hear a neighbor gripe about high property taxes, I'm going to let them know exactly how good they have it.
posted by Sublimity at 10:10 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump and Putin
My brilliant friend
The Economist

(The headline refers to Putin's description as colorful which Trump's hack translator rendered as brilliant.)
posted by bukvich at 10:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh gosh... humanfront I'm inclined to say that the most pragmatic choice is McMullin since giving him both R and D votes will likely push him over the top, and Clinton definitely does not need Utah to win. And it would be hilarious if he won. But on the other hand there's no way I'd NOT vote for Clinton just for the lols, so... Vote Your Conscience I guess!
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

The Salt Lake Tribune article of today, reveals Utah's true bias, as The Trib is supposed to be the middle of the road rag for Utah. They allow their great cartoonist leeway, and a couple of regular columnists, but in today's big cover for Evan they use old poll figures, and try to make the case for all Utah. Never forget that Utah's highest population is too young to vote. The ratio of Mormons to non Mormons is more even than they like to admit, and then bolstered by high population of children. So the Trib is telling Utah what the conservatives want them to hear. Newer polls, but the race as a three way tie. I'm just sayin'. Maybe I am in horrible denial, probably.
posted by Oyéah at 10:14 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

After my Berner encounter, I then signed up an enthusiastic new volunteer on the next block, so it was worth it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 10:15 AM on October 30, 2016 [61 favorites]

(The headline refers to Putin's description as colorful which Trump's hack translator rendered as brilliant.)

The translation makes some sense if it's using the British meaning of "amazing" (similar to Firefly's "shiny") as opposed to the US meaning of "smart." It may still be wrong--"colorful" in the US doesn't necessarily mean anything good, but it does mean "noteworthy" rather than implying any specific trait.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:19 AM on October 30, 2016

Sigh: Truckload of Manure Dumped at Ohio Democratic Party Office. The article does say that the county Republican party has offered to help with cleanup, though.
posted by TwoStride at 10:20 AM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

> "Is it better for Utah dems to vote for McMullin in hopes of denying Trump the electoral votes, or go for Hilllary because it's close and she may win?"

I'd vote for Clinton, if it were my choice.

You never know.
posted by kyrademon at 10:23 AM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Early voting report from Santa Fe: I went last week on Tuesday, was downtown for work anyway, so figured I would walk over on my lunch hour. Coworkers warned me it would likely be busy, but I had a zero minutes wait time. They had four stations where someone looked up your voter record on a computer, filled out the little paper ticket, and handed you your ballot. Looked to be about 30 of the little privacy-winged stations for filling out ballots (about a third were for seated use, rest standing-height). Maybe ten or so other people there voting. Wasn't expecting it, but got choked up filling in that oval for HRC. Two scanner stations, the tally on the monitor readout on the one I used was three-thousand-something. I asked the guy if that was total, or today? He said total, since early voting started on that particular scanner. Said the other scanner was up to five-thousand-something, because that one was closer to the ballot-filling-out stations.

The hubs went on Thursday, same location, same breeze through, same scanner I used, said it was up to five-thousand-something. Texted me a pic of his "I voted" sticker.
posted by mon-ma-tron at 10:24 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

"Is it better for Utah dems to vote for McMullin in hopes of denying Trump the electoral votes, or go for Hilllary because it's close and she may win?"

Personal opinion, and worth everything you paid for it: Vote your conscience - attempting to game the system is useless at best and actively destructive at worst.
posted by Mooski at 10:26 AM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

FBI knew for weeks before telling Comey, on Thursday. In other words, one of Comey's first acts was to make it public.

How ... thoughtful of him.
posted by Dashy at 10:26 AM on October 30, 2016 [33 favorites]

Truckload of Manure Dumped at Ohio Democratic Party Office.

Paging Dr. Metaphor . . Dr. Metaphor to the national stage plase . . *klk*
posted by petebest at 10:26 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Whoa, so Santa Fe has a total population of around 70K, and just between those two machines at least 10K have voted early? That sounds crazy.
posted by LionIndex at 10:27 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

In other words, one of Comey's first acts was to make it public.

"But can we trust him?"

"Well, there's always the empty gun test."

"What?"

"Give him an empty gun and see if he points it at you."

"He'd never fall for that."

"But if he does..."
posted by Mooski at 10:31 AM on October 30, 2016 [40 favorites]

So this just happened. I stopped by my brother's home to drop off a piece of pie I thought he'd enjoy. First, I had a WTF moment when I saw he had a Trump sign in his front window. Then he answered the door wearing a Trump hat. I was appalled and said so and asked how he could support a misogynist. He blathered about emails and Benghazi but then when he said "locker room talk" I exploded. I am astounded at how much rage flooded through me instantly, as I'm usually slow to anger and even-keeled. It was the last straw. My own brother--smart, well-read, raised in the same liberal union-backing home as me, who had the same strong mom who got me a Ms. magazine subscription when I was a teen--has no compunction about supporting a man who brags about sexual assault. I said "misogyny" again and he said he didn't know what I was talking about. I told him to look it up, then threw the pie on the floor and stormed off. I was livid!! Then I felt a twinge of guilt because we avoid conflict in our family, but I cut that shit out when I remembered that I am a nasty woman and he can just go to hell. Thanks for listening.
posted by a fish out of water at 10:31 AM on October 30, 2016 [312 favorites]

FBI knew for weeks before telling Comey

So apparently a warrant to search a computer for relevant information in an FBI investigation should be relatively simple - make sure all the fields on the form are filled in, for example. Then get any one of the 11 active, 13 senior judges or the ~50 magistrates of the second circuit to sign off. They have someone on call 24x7.

Point being, they may not have anything. They should have the warrant by now.
posted by petebest at 10:35 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

I would not personally vote for McMullin, because I don't think that contemporary "moderate" conservatives need to be empowered, and I can't see any positive effects coming from a McMullin vote.

Really, the only reason I can think of for someone with reasonable politics to vote for McMullin — who's funny as a metafilter inside joke, but who has a genuinely miserable platform — is if you think there's a legitimate chance that the Republican Party might splinter, and also you think that voting for McMullin would make that more likely to happen. For my part, I don't think the Republican Party is actually going to splinter. I think they're going to keep doing the thing they've been doing since at least the early 2000s.

HOW THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS WORKED SINCE (AT LEAST) THE EARLY 2000S:

A breakaway group — the Tea Party, the Trumpists, whatever — moves as hard as they can to the right.
The Republican Party establishment whines and moans a bit about how extreme the breakaway group is, but then...
Follows the breakaway group to the right, because that's the easiest way to maintain a unified party.
Now the Republican Party establishment is as far to the right as the breakaway group used to be. This gives the breakaway group room to move even farther to the right. They take advantage of this opportunity.
goto step 2.

posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:36 AM on October 30, 2016 [41 favorites]

Ok so I am secretly a Luddite, and my bias is to assume this is user error on my part, but...

I have the MeFites United page up on mobile, and I want to make calls! But there's no button or whatever from the page where it will make my phone call the number automatically, which means I have to write it down, navigate to the phone app, then come back to the page while it's ringing so I can read the script. This is dumb. Ok, I'll pull up the page on my laptop!

Nope. In my HFA account in my laptop browser, the call tool is blank.

There's nothing in the app.

What am I doing wrong?
posted by schadenfrau at 10:36 AM on October 30, 2016

a fish out of water: I'm so sorry. That's terrible.
posted by bardophile at 10:36 AM on October 30, 2016 [18 favorites]

I actually do speak German, but I turned off my German understanding, and heard that as a tone poem, while reading the subtitles. Such a lovely piece. From a site of make your own Hitler parody. Such good stuff. And here is a picture of McMullin's hands. You be the judge.
posted by Oyéah at 10:37 AM on October 30, 2016

So I did my early voting yesterday, in San Jose. There were no lines, no protestors, no watchers and everyone working there was cheerful.

They said there had been crowds in the morning, but when I got there a half-hour before closing, I just walked up and they printed out my ballot. I filled out the selections for the candidates and the gazillion propositions, and I was fine.

And then I treated myself to coffee and caught pokemon in Japantown for an hour.
posted by happyroach at 10:37 AM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

> Personal opinion, and worth everything you paid for it: Vote your conscience - attempting to game the system is useless at best and actively destructive at worst.

Whatever you do, do not vote your conscience. "Voting your conscience" is like "just being yourself" at a job interview; it sounds nice, but in practice is maybe the worst thing you could possibly do.

If you must vote your conscience, adjust your conscience first, to make sure that it's operating in terms of effects and outcomes rather than expression and values.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:40 AM on October 30, 2016 [47 favorites]

I understand the election has made everything seem like life or death but I wish people would slow down on calling for Comey's head. He was in a no-win situation where either disclosing or not disclosing would seem like putting his thumb on the scale and compromise public trust in the FBI; plus, the FBI has been leaking like crazy this year over the Clinton stuff and reading the tea leaves it seems likely the cat was possibly already out of the bag and Chaffetz already knew. I think he had to say something -- especially since the alternative was likely not silence but headlines blaring "FBI GETS SECRET WARRANT TO INVESTIGATE HIDDEN CLINTON EMAILS" -- and given that he had to say something I don't see what he could have said that was much different from what he did say. It's obviously not his place as head of the FBI to formally announce whether an investigation has merit or not before it happens.

What he did likely *minimized*, rather than maximized, the damage to the fairness of the election resulting from this event. It's certainly better that this story was announced the way it was, and quickly debunked, than for it to be characterized by hysteria and rumors pushed on by from "anonymous FBI sources close to the investigation." The idea of the investigation never seeing the light of day before the 8th seems like the fantasy.
posted by gerryblog at 10:40 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

mon-ma-tron: The hubs...Texted me a pic of his "I voted" sticker.

You're married to Dennis the Menace?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:41 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you must vote your conscience, adjust your conscience first

How about, "just vote for the person you want to be President" and quit trying to be clever.
posted by ctmf at 10:44 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

a fish out of water: I'm so sorry. That's terrible.

Me too, what a waste of delicious pie!
posted by ActingTheGoat at 10:45 AM on October 30, 2016 [22 favorites]

FBI knew for weeks before telling Comey, on Thursday.

This is very fishy and the real scandal might turn out to be infighting within the FBI. The New York FBI office is mad because local agents were pulled off the Eric Garner case by DC headquarters because they were slow-walking their investigation in solidarity with local police. The New York office in retaliation may have been blackmailing Comey by threatening to leak the information about the emails and Comey may have made his announcement to pre-empt the leaking which would embarrass him.

In any case it indicates mismanagement and lack of leadership on Comey's part. Dirty intra-departmental politics might be the real scandal.
posted by JackFlash at 10:46 AM on October 30, 2016 [25 favorites]

I always vote conscious.
posted by orange ball at 10:46 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

How about, "just vote for the person you want to be President" and quit trying to be clever.
posted by ctmf at 10:44 AM on October 30 [+] [!]

If I did that, I'd end up writing in someone crazy and completely wasting my vote. It's a terrible idea.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:47 AM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Then I felt a twinge of guilt because we avoid conflict in our family, but I cut that shit out when I remembered that I am a nasty woman and he can just go to hell.

This is the best thing that I've read today.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 10:47 AM on October 30, 2016 [32 favorites]

Whatever you do, do not vote your conscience. "Voting your conscience" is like "just being yourself" at a job interview; it sounds nice, but in practice is maybe the worst thing you could possibly do.

This seems to need a [real] or [fake] tag.

To me, the whole point of voting is to say "I, for one, want x," where x is actually what you want. Otherwise, what's the point?
posted by Mooski at 10:47 AM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

No, check that, I wouldn't write in someone crazy. I'd write in someone sane: Angela Davis. But me writing in "Angela Davis" will never, ever, ever make Angela Davis President, or accomplish anything else worthwhile.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:49 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

voting is to say "I, for one, want x," where x is actually what you want. Otherwise, what's the point?

You can't always get (exactly) what you want.

But you can try to minimize what you absolutely don't want by being pragmatic.
posted by porpoise at 10:50 AM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

> Personal opinion, and worth everything you paid for it: Vote your conscience - attempting to game the system is useless at best and actively destructive at worst.

What if the system is crappy?
posted by farlukar at 10:50 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

A fish out of water: I'm sorry you found your brother showing a bigoted ass. I'm glad you felt empowered to show your voice and position and didn't have to choke down your anger and downplay how wrong you thought he was.
posted by R343L at 10:51 AM on October 30, 2016 [32 favorites]

Another interesting factoid: in North Carolina, where polls suggest that early voting is breaking heavily for Clinton, almost 20% of early voters had previously said that they were less than "almost certain" to vote, and thus would have been excluded from many likely voter screens. It's not really clear what that means: they don't track who those people are voting for. But given the Clinton campaign's emphasis on early voting and on targeting reluctant voters, I think it bodes well.

I think the issue is less "vote your conscience" and more "don't try to play games with third-party candidates for whom you have no actual affinity, because it's unlikely to make a difference and could have unintended consequences." On the other hand, if it actually seemed on election eve like an Egg victory in Utah might tip the election, I might bite the bullet and vote for him if I lived there. That seems pretty unlikely, though.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:52 AM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

To me, the whole point of voting is to say "I, for one, want x," where x is actually what you want. Otherwise, what's the point?

With a better voting system (in the mathematical sense) this would work. With our current system, it has serious problems. The basic problem is that you can't express "what you want" in the current system when there are more than two candidates (e.g. when there are two people that you like and one that you despise).
posted by madmethods at 10:53 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

I always vote my subconscious. It's more creative.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:55 AM on October 30, 2016 [26 favorites]

> To me, the whole point of voting is to say "I, for one, want x," where x is actually what you want. Otherwise, what's the point?
posted by Mooski at 10:47 AM on October 30 [+] [!]

The point is handling leadership change without civil war.

A vote isn't a means of self-expression; it's a mark made anonymously, in private. If you follow the "if I can't vote for what I actually want what's the point?" line of reasoning to its end, you end up as a disaffected non-voter.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:55 AM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

Me too, what a waste of delicious pie!

Sadly, sometimes pie must be sacrificed in the name of a larger principle, and if ever there were somebody who earned a serious loss of pie, especially pie procured and delivered by a thoughtful sister, it's this bozo. If pie had to be cast to the ground in the process, so be it.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:56 AM on October 30, 2016 [35 favorites]

I know these threads aren't supposed to be therapy sessions, but when the New York Times is writing about the disproportionate number of therapy clients talking about the election with their therapists, I have to ask for a little reassurance from the level-headed folks here at MetaFilter, since I don't get to see my shrink for three weeks.

This is the first election in 16 years where I thought we had it in the bag, and was not having crying jags and anxiety attacks on a near-daily basis. Then Comey happened on Friday.

Can a few of you give me some good reasons to believe that our "sure thing" election isn't now a toss-up or worse?

(The Cubs down 3-1 is not a reassuring sign....)
posted by tzikeh at 10:57 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

He was in a no-win situation

Totally disagree. Instead of (as colorfully noted above) "shooting himself in the dick", he could have proceeded to not discuss ongoing investigations.

REPUBLICANS: But emailghazi! This is critical information!
COMEY: What is critical information? That there may be something somewhere at some point? You'd make a terrible investigator. No, we are looking into an unrelated case and if there's anything to report on the Clinton emails I will do so.

*Continues investigation, gets the friggin warrant like a competent bastard*
posted by petebest at 10:57 AM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

Tactical voting makes a lot more sense in primaries. Not usually so much in generals. If some left folks had voted tactically in our open primary here, maybe we wouldn't have two republicans for state treasurer. Sigh.

But Utah would be tough. It would be hard not to vote for Clinton but also hard not to vote for the best chance to deny Trump electoral votes, if that became the case with a McMullin vote. Glad I'm in Washington and already voted so I don't have to make these choices. :)
posted by R343L at 10:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

It’s All But Official: Donald Trump Won’t Release His Tax Returns - And in not doing so, he’s setting a precedent for secrecy that others will likely follow. (Autoplays video.)
posted by homunculus at 10:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

the whole point of voting is to say "I, for one, want x," where x is actually what you want. Otherwise, what's the point?

the point is picking which gang of people take over the Executive Branch of the United States of America for the next 4 years.

The ballot box is not an opinion poll. It is the primary lever of power the electorate itself has in our system.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

What if the system is crappy?

With a better voting system (in the mathematical sense) this would work. With our current system, it has serious problems.

The system, crappy or not, is the one we've got. We can and should attempt to change the system when it is crappy, but with the system we've got, you get to vote for one person for the office of President of the United States, and if you think that person should be Hillary Clinton, I think that's how you should vote.

If you think that person should be anyone but Donald Trump, that's a different proposition, and you might should vote for the person who will most likely deny Trump the electoral votes.

Do vote, though. Vote like your life depended on it.
posted by Mooski at 10:59 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Re James Comey — truly a hack in full — going over the heads of his bosses to send an letter to his Republican friends in Congress he had no obligation to send and contained no actual information but was worded in a way that insinuated that Hillary Clinton might have engaged in wrongdoing. I don’t know if Comey was consciously trying to influence the election in favor of Trump, but either he was in on it or he was too dumb to know he was being set up by Jason Chaffetz. It’s hard to overstate how disgraceful this conduct is.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:00 AM on October 30, 2016 [44 favorites]

So the latest Clinton scandal, according to the NYT? The contractor working on their home renovations didn't pull the proper permits. Once the Clintons found out, they took care of things in the proper way, but of course this must be reported with an eye-grabbing headline that implies deliberate wrongdoing on the Clintons' part.

Or for fuck's sake. Also, I have it on good authority that Hillary once jaywalked and allowed a delivery person to rip the tag off of her new mattress before it was actually in her possession, which is a technical violation (or at least enabled a violation) of the Mattress Tag Removal Act of 1912. [fake]

Can a Manhattan MeFite please go over to the NYT as soon as possible and drop a fucking pie on their floor?
posted by FelliniBlank at 11:01 AM on October 30, 2016 [87 favorites]

Voted early after work on Friday in downtown Albuquerque. There were a few people seated at the voting cubicles but there was no one in line so I basically waltzed in.

The nice lady at the desk asked about my t-shirt (Archer for President 2016) and I said it was a gag based on a cartoon. She then told me how earlier in the day, some man strolled in with one of Trump's hats on and was turned away. He proceeded to stand outside the door and yell that he was a lawyer and knew his rights. He finally gave up and left. She seemed a little rattled by it. And I felt a brief moment of rage for no-nothing blowhards who yell at civic-minded retirees.

I was the ~2900 voter scanned on one machine (I think there were 4). And I got a sticker!
posted by nikitabot at 11:01 AM on October 30, 2016 [24 favorites]

tzikeh: via PEC: Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 97%, Bayesian 99%

Presidential race

State Margin Power
NH Clinton +5% 100.0
NV Clinton +1.5% 90.4
CO Clinton +4% 65.4
NC Clinton +3% 60.6
WI Clinton +5% 55.5
FL Clinton +2% 54.6
PA Clinton +5% 50.6
MI Clinton +6% 37.8
IA Tied 34.9
NM Clinton +8% 34.5
VA Clinton +7% 29.2
GA Trump +1% 21.0
MN Clinton +8% 20.5
AZ Trump +1.5% 20.4
WA Clinton +10% 17.1
NJ Clinton +20% 0.000018942
posted by petebest at 11:02 AM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

It’s All But Official: Donald Trump Won’t Release His Tax Returns - And in not doing so, he’s setting a precedent for secrecy that others will likely follow.

Maybe less likely to be followed by others if Trump gets trounced?
posted by Lyme Drop at 11:04 AM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

Whoever ran against Bush back in the day was a shoe-in. At least, I was brazen enough to think so. The re-election of Bush should have been a check on that view.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 11:05 AM on October 30, 2016

Petebest - aren't those poll numbers recent, but pre-Friday? They don't tell us what effect this latest bullshit will have, do they?
posted by tzikeh at 11:05 AM on October 30, 2016

Joy-Ann Reid: Republicans Weaponize James Comey’s FBI To Kneecap Hillary Clinton. For a quarter century, Republicans have ginned up phonygates to jam up the Clintons. They’re at it again.
posted by homunculus at 11:06 AM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

Can a few of you give me some good reasons to believe that our "sure thing" election isn't now a toss-up or worse?

Media wants dirt on Clinton because there is endless, overwhelming dirt on Trump, and they want the illusion of "balanced reporting." Nevermind that "balanced" only works when the candidates are reasonably comparable... this is not even Kodos vs. Kang; it's Kodos vs Wonder Woman*, and they're trying to pretend "both have their pros and cons."

Everyone is sick of email stories. The complexities of this one are going to go over most people's heads. That tiny fraction of voters who is still actually undecided, may look into the details... and find this is a nothingburger, "there are MORE EMAILS!!!" is not the same as "emails show Clinton DID SOMETHING WRONG," and they'll figure that out.

Trumpists will jump on "MORE EMAILS" as meaning "Hillary is even more wrong than she was yesterday," but that doesn't change their number of votes. It might drag a few of them to the polls who otherwise would've stayed home on election day (because Trump's gonna win big, you know, everyone they know is voting for him, my vote doesn't really matter), but even that's not really likely.

Of course there'll be a drop in the polls. Hillary supporters who feel guilty about knowing some of her past scandals will say "oh, I don't know; less sure about voting for her" when confronted... they're not likely to change their votes, but they don't want to be That Guy who says "my candidate, right or wrong!"

* I tried very hard to come up with a well-known US-born female superhero. I'm not sure we have any... Batgirls 1 & 3, I suppose, but those are very much defined by their relationship to a male superhero.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:08 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Kamala Khan, surely...
posted by bardophile at 11:10 AM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

tzikeh: The problem with these October "surprises" is that they aren't going to discourage anyone who is in the tank for Clinton and Clinton has a good ground game while Trump has basically none and she's running against Trump. This means that undecided voters have to decide that Trump is better than email scandals and there have to be enough of them to beat Hillary's ground game. On the day of voting, everyone who has been havering about the emails actually has to think "the cloud cast by emails is such that I would rather have Trump". That's a tall order, and I think that even people who are wavering in the polls now mostly won't do it.

In the long run, everyone who has been paying attention to this election should do everything we can to read and support non-NYT, non-email-garbage media. And if we ever have the chance to reinstate that fairness law (that was repealed in 1987, shortly before all this garbage began) we should aim for that. There was plenty of conservative media and there was plenty of left media before 1987 and there was a LOT more serious political commentary in the mainstream. (You have only to look at old Newsweeks, for instance.) I assume that the fairness law was far from the only factor in the media's deterioration but the repeal couldn't have helped.

Basically, we need to subscribe to and read and cite the highest quality media we can find that hasn't pulled all this "emailghazi is just as bad as being a giant racist"* routine.

*If they were saying "This paper feels that Clinton's [specific actions as SoS, policy proposals, etc] make her as dubious a candidate as Trump for [real reasons]" that would be not only totally legit but much, much better for society.
posted by Frowner at 11:10 AM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

This is the first election in 16 years where I thought we had it in the bag, and was not having crying jags and anxiety attacks on a near-daily basis. Then Comey happened on Friday.

Can a few of you give me some good reasons to believe that our "sure thing" election isn't now a toss-up or worse?

Clinton is up by an extraordinary margin and this wet fart of a non-scandal is being reported as just that. Comey had humiliated HIMSELF, and if you think literally millions of people will chance their voting plans based on this, then you're not basing your fears on reality. Feel better?
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:12 AM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

Khan's not really well known yet though that's bound to change. My first thought was, surely one of the x-men, but nope. Jean Gray is maybe the closest?
posted by Strange_Robinson at 11:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Funny that nobody asks Comey, "did they pay you 1500 Dollar?"
posted by Namlit at 11:13 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Liberal media, my ass.
I've stated before that the New York Times not-so-secretly LOVES Donald Trump. He's been driving real estate ads to them for his entire life. If they didn't love The Donald, some honest reporting about his dishonest business dealings would have landed him in jail 20+ years ago. Remember, this is also the "paper of record" that pushed the Iraq War, giving the Bush Jr. Administration the cover of "well, if this Liberal newspaper says it's true...".
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:15 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

> * I tried very hard to come up with a well-known US-born female superhero. I'm not sure we have any... Batgirls 1 & 3, I suppose, but those are very much defined by their relationship to a male superhero.

SQUIRREL GIRL 2016.

actually though if we've gotta vote for a superhero as President, prolly She-Hulk would be the best one for the job.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:15 AM on October 30, 2016 [27 favorites]

Jean Gray is maybe the closest?

I am not comparing Hillary Clinton to someone who reads minds, got the power to destroy the planet, and actually tried (more than once?) before being taken down by her own team.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:16 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Khan's not really well known yet though that's bound to change.

Damn right. Ms Marvel is straight up the bomb-diggety.
posted by Mooski at 11:20 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

> * I tried very hard to come up with a well-known US-born female superhero. I'm not sure we have any... Batgirls 1 & 3, I suppose, but those are very much defined by their relationship to a male superhero.

Male superhero whose Dicks always cause problems. Seems appropriate.
posted by tzikeh at 11:20 AM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

> "Can a few of you give me some good reasons to believe that our "sure thing" election isn't now a toss-up or worse?"

I am a big fan of "it's not over until it's over" thinking, and am taking nothing for granted in this crazy year. However, that being said:

Trump MUST win AT LEAST one of the following states in order to win -- and note this is *beyond* any of the states which are "iffy", such as Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa; all of those together will not win him the election without at least one of:

Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, or a northern midwestern state (Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota).

In Colorado, he has not led in a single one of the last 20 polls. In New Hampshire, only in 1 of the last 20 polls, which was quite an outlier. In Virginia, none. In Pennsylvania, none. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, none.

Is this a guarantee? No. Surprises can happen and we need to get out the vote. I think it's especially important this election to crush Trump with a massive popular vote victory so he cannot reasonably claim foul.

But. That's a lot of ground he would need to pick up in not a lot of time.
posted by kyrademon at 11:20 AM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

I will add to what kyrademon said that of the 'iffy' states, Nevada early voting suggests it is likely already out of Trump's reach, and in Florida, nonwhite voting is up by a basically unprecidented margin - like, I think literally twice as many Hispanics have early voted compared to previous years, and that number of new voters is many times Obama's margin of victory in Florida.
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:24 AM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

a fish out of water, their pie on the floor

We may have a winner in the "Best Tamarian description of the 2016 election" competition.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 11:25 AM on October 30, 2016 [68 favorites]

a fish out of water, just wanted to signal my sympathy here. An unannounced fistful of trump must be truly devastating in a sibling relationship that involves exchanges of friendly pieces of pie otherwise.

[no matter how tiny the fist]
posted by Namlit at 11:30 AM on October 30, 2016 [18 favorites]

On preview, yep. Nobody has anything resembling a straight answer for how likely a likely voter is to vote, but the one number I could find put it at about 80%. If we assume that that's 80% of people who haven't voted yet, and all likely voters are equally motivated, that puts Clinton about 1.5% ahead of trump.

But, as you say, that assumes equal motivation. Clinton's been losing more voters (or conversely, Trump's been gaining more votes) in these lull periods between debates and/or Trump faceplants. Throw in Comey slamming his foot down on the electoral scales, the Florida government's usual election shenanigans, and Trump videos and statements no longer affecting his poll numbers (a video showing him literally sexually assaulting and humiliating a woman came out and got all of five seconds of coverage), and Trump's looking pretty likely to take Florida.

I mean, if you're going to take a single poll as gospel, anyway.
posted by dirigibleman at 11:31 AM on October 30, 2016

Those of us with the remaining emotional bandwidth after years of abuse from these assholes and who are also reasonably assured of our safety...

Yes, 110%, thank you for that addition.
posted by VTX at 11:35 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Johnny Wallflower: You're married to Dennis the Menace?

Temperamentally, he's probably closer to Eeyore ... with a brand-new pair of Chucks.
posted by mon-ma-tron at 11:37 AM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Ah, here we are:

At bookclosing, FL has added a net 929,327 voters since '12. Non-whites have accounted for 65% of that growth (39% H, 11% AA, 15% Other).

Since '12, FL has added a net 325,485 white voters & 603,842 non-white voters. Keep in mind, Obama's FL margin was 74,309 in '12.
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:39 AM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

I must admit that I am still feeling slightly panicked. I am trying to read all of these reassuring posts and calm myself down, but it doesn't help when AM Joy opens with a segment featuring Kurt Eichenwald looking distressed. The following segment featuring a talking head who wore safety glasses to protect him from the shattering of the glass ceiling made me laugh but did nothing to assuage my sense of doom. I think I have electoral PTSD (in addition to my actual PTSD) from 2000 and 2004. The Gore election was a disgrace and I couldn't believe that Americans re-elected such a disastrous and unpopular president. I just don't trust Americans, Barack Obama notwithstanding.
posted by xyzzy at 11:42 AM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

I always vote my subconscious. It's more creative.

i just flip a quarter - who am i to argue with george washington?
posted by pyramid termite at 11:42 AM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Was he distressed by the impact on Clinton's chances, or by Comey's abuse of power? Because I don't think the email news changes a thing, electorally speaking. There's a million of these stories floating around the Clintons already, and either a voter is already affected by them, or they're not going to be now.
posted by Coventry at 11:47 AM on October 30, 2016

You need a somethingawful account to see this post but there's a polling strategist who's been posting near-daily breakdowns of early voting and exit polls and what they mean. Excerpts from the latest:

North Carolina outperformed last year [in Saturday early voting] by 7900 votes, casting asperions on the idea that the whole FBI thing is going to cause voters or partisans to stay home. More anecdotal evidence from reporters following canvassers confirms this. In general, I find the FBI story to be a Rorschach test for partisans. You see in it what you want to see that confirms your already existing views on the election, the people involved, and the various things at stake. Hillary supporters will be motivated, Trump supporters will be motivated, Alex Jones will yell about frogs turning gay from chemtrails...

Nevada: Dumpster fire [for Trump] is back on fire. Dems now lead by 44k in Clark county, and won for the 5th out of 6 days in the crucial Washoe bellwether. [Rule is: Win Clark, tie Washoe, don't get absolutely murdered in the rurals, or at least run up turnout enough in Clark that it doesn't matter]. When that Clark number gets to 60k, the game is over... As long as Dems win slightly again today, Nevada is probably done. With it, the election...

Florida is close right now. Dems underperformed yesterday pretty badly. Rain in Miami might have had something to do with it, but a 3.5k in person advantage when everything was said and done in early voting is not enough. Florida's electorate is old and white right now, and I want to say Trump is favored pretty strongly. Then polls go and do this:

In FL, 36% of likely voters say they have already voted, and they are breaking for Clinton, 54-37

Among those who haven't, Trump up 51-42

So yeah, I don't know. My suggestion is to ignore polls of EV and pay attention to partisan turnout. Dems are slightly behind and their ground game needs to pick it up if they want to win the state in my view...

Two things to watch in general right now:

1.) Turnout among 60+ and 45-59 voters are both hitting 40-50%. They're going to start scraping their ceilings soon as younger voters become larger shares of the day to day electorate.

2.) Latino turnout is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy up right now.
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:49 AM on October 30, 2016 [53 favorites]

I must admit that I am still feeling slightly panicked
...
I just don't trust Americans, Barack Obama notwithstanding.

I understand. I feel the same way from time to time, especially when things seem to be rolling in the direction of the Typical Republican Bullshit Memes.

I can tell you in all honesty, though - I am truly not worried about the Presidency, and not because of the polls. I'm not worried, 'cause I see enough people like you and I (and many of the folks here, I'd imagine) who are scared shitless of a Trump presidency. Even here in Florida, where you're as likely to see a confederate battle flag as a U.S. flag, I see Republicans who can't stomach a Trump presidency. I do not worry about a Trump presidency.

What I do worry about is whether the Clinton Administration will have the political will to face down the mountain of bullshit that's coming its way. I want her to come out swinging and suborn every enemy she can and kneecap those she can't. I want her to be worth the hope I've managed to pull out of my hat, I want her to not care if she gets elected or impeached, I want her to destroy these homophobic, misogynist, racist fucks who've poisoned our country.

But the presidency? No. Not worried about that.
posted by Mooski at 11:54 AM on October 30, 2016 [30 favorites]

From August, but worth a look for obvious reasons: Some Good News: 16 Ways 2016 Is Not a Total Dumpster Fire
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Regarding voting in Utah, I'd suggest taking a wait and see attitude right now since Lord only knows what the next week will bring, and then if nothing changes and you strongly support Clinton vote for her since she should win anyway. If things tighten noticeably, then a vote for McMullin may be the better strategic choice since any further Clinton "surprises" should trend towards McMullin as long as he maintains his momentum without some foul up of his own.

If you believe there is a limit to how far many conservatives will move towards the deplorable end of the pool for fear of drowning in the bigotry, then a vote for McMullin could carry additional benefit as a way to break up the trend towards that kind of insanity since it threatens the stability of our country. If you tend towards the belief conservatives can't or won't change, then anything less than a reasonable chance at a Trump victory possibility relying on Utah should probably be enough to go with history and Hillary, if that's what you want to see.

(I'm personally undecided on whether enough conservatives can become more reasonable and put country before party and start getting involved in shared government again, but I hope it is the case and it's something I think we need to have happen almost as much as having the Democrats win.)
posted by gusottertrout at 11:58 AM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Not. Fucking. Around.

@gdebenedetti
Coming soon in PA, according to an internal Clinton campaign memo: 350 new get-out-the-vote offices
How Clinton plans to deal with Comey's October surprise
posted by chris24 at 12:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

Renovation permits? Ffs, next they will get someone to say they saw Clinton go through the 10 items or less grocery lane with 11 things.
posted by gatorae at 12:13 PM on October 30, 2016 [36 favorites]

voting is to say "I We, for ~~one~~ ourselves, want x," where x is actually what you want. Otherwise, what's the point?

Defining "We" is EXTREMELY non -trivial and fluid. Who is even within your polity? This election even involves many polities who can't vote in it because of racism, classism, both, because of poor citizenship processes, or because the US is an imperial country.

Because "we" is always fluid, and impossibly abstract at the national level, voting is almost always divisive. But imagine replacing it with consensus process. uf.
posted by eustatic at 12:15 PM on October 30, 2016

> Renovation permits? Ffs, next they will get someone to say they saw Clinton go through the 10 items or less grocery lane with 11 things.

But then if you dig into the story a little more you'll discover that 3 of them were identical packages of butter (she was baking some fucking cookies, ok?)
posted by contraption at 12:18 PM on October 30, 2016 [31 favorites]

NC's the firewall here if all the other battleground states go red.

NC also has a Dem voter cohort motivated by four years of vindictive supermajority rule by rural GOP nutjobs with McCrory as their supine enabler, along with a moderate-R cohort around Charlotte and the Triangle that sees HB2 as a dumpster fire for the state economy and Trump as a dumpster-volcano for the national economy. No other battleground state has the governor and the state's own record on the ballot this time round. It's a change election.

The live Keepin' It 1600 was on Thursday night, so the participants are a bit "ulp" about "no news will change things", but I think it was Favreau who made clear that while we're all scrying from polls and public data for early-voting, the Clinton campaign has private polling and pretty much every registered voter in the nation in its database, along with the ground organisation to identify every potential voter between now and the 8th. The campaign workers at HQ will be getting told off if they look at the public polls or aggregators. It's a data operation and a logistics operation and a human operation.

On Utah: I'd be wait-and-see, but having McMullin win the state after Chaffetz said he'd vote for Trump -- while other top-tier elected GOPers in the state pulled endorsements -- might put Chaffetz under pressure at home. But Chaffetz seems accountable only to himself.
posted by holgate at 12:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

In addition to Clinton hitting Phoenix on Wednesday, Kaine is now going to Tucson.

They clearly want AZ bad and think they have a chance.
posted by chris24 at 12:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

Nothing has better demonstrated the origin of Clinton's desire for a private email server than the reaction it has engendered not only on the right, but also in the press.

It was Matt Taibbi's reaction to the leaked Wall Street speeches, specifically him saying that they "showed Hillary Clinton in a more sympathetic light than her public persona usually allows" that finally gave me insight into actions of hers that seem paranoid and self-defeating. I was wondering why she didn't just release these speeches during the primary, since it seems doing so would have taken the wind right out of the Bernie camp's sails. Were they going to feign surprise that bankers weren't paying her hundreds of thousands of dollars to be excoriated?

The bizarre secrecy around her bout of pneumonia too: why? Sec. Clinton is otherwise exceedingly smart, deliberate, cautious and disciplined. The only reason I can come up with for her reflexive secrecy is it represents the kind of hypervigilance that comes with PTSD. Is it any wonder she's been driven to this state after a quarter century of constant hounding by a party that now has fully revealed itself to be mostly crazed fascists and a depraved press corps that treats hunting her like sport?

I have serious problems with Hillary Clinton from a policy perspective. In a sane world that wasn't burning down before our eyes, her non-response to the Dakota Access Pipeline protests would be the major late-breaking scandal in this election threatening to throw an otherwise boring election to her opponent, DC Senator Elanor Holmes Norton, running on a transit infrastructure and climate justice platform.

Instead, we have a goddamn hurricane of bullshit that follows her wherever she goes that prevents any reasonable discussion of either the issues, or the fact that her opponent is a pathological liar, grifter, ignoramus, incompetent failson thin-skinned bully and serial rapist running on a platform of ethnic cleansing and giving nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, or something, bigly.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 12:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [95 favorites]

You could easily make a list of elements of sharia law that any Christian Conservative would agree to endorse.

And despite my raging agnosticism, I find a lot of kosher and halal cuisine simply delicious.

So, you're not allowed to pick and choose bits here and there, unless you're willing to also concede that based on my selective reading, I am actually the Messiah.
posted by rokusan at 12:35 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

So, uh, they're planning on impeaching her and they're planning on obstructing her supreme court justices. They're going to refuse to approve her cabinet too aren't they,
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

In Utah, voted early, not even a question: I'm with her.
posted by freejinn at 12:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

But it ALSO harms the police officers themselves, and the police departments, and the ability of police departments to keep the peace and accomplish their stated mission.

My point is, you would **EXPECT** police unions to be leading the charge to solve the problem that the police are having right now. They are in a unique position to do so. And they are using their power quite literally for evil instead of for good.

This.

Five cops were murdered and 9 injured in one incident this year as a result of the rage induced in a black veteran by bad cops involved in bad shootings of black people.

The huge majority of currently neutral cops need to stand up and become good cops and stop supporting the bad cops if they want the trust and support of the communities they are supposed to serve. Their jobs will be safer, easier, better for the soul and they won't drain the city coffers with their huge misconduct payouts.

It's so win-win I can only think that evil is the reason why it doesn't happen.
posted by srboisvert at 12:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

What I do worry about is whether the Clinton Administration will have the political will to face down the mountain of bullshit that's coming its way.

Unfortunately, I've already primed myself to accept that if Clinton is elected it will be for a single term of investigative and legislative gridlock, and that Americans will vote for a Republican just so Washington works again. Dems aren't obstructionists except in true matters of principle, like attaching bullshit Planned Parenthood provisos to Zika funding.
posted by xyzzy at 12:41 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

News on the ground from Bedford NH: I carpooled up with two women who were close friends, and I felt a little left out. We split up and talked to houses on either side of a long road. Half of the houses I got were empty, but the other half were full of enthusiastic Hillary supporters. My favorite canvassee was a guy in full Harley Davidson gear who whispered to me "I'm voting for her." Two of the people I got mentioned the current email scandal in a dismissive manner.

My carpooling partners got a Bernie-or-Buster who was angry at Hillary and would never, ever vote for her because of her record on Israel and the Middle East.

I feel good about Hillary's chances, but I'm not getting complacent. I will be phone banking and canvassing for the next few months, and I may even spring for one of the new Tim Kaine shirts. If you can, volunteer. You'll feel better for your efforts and you'll help get out the vote.
posted by pxe2000 at 12:41 PM on October 30, 2016 [27 favorites]

An interesting little piece by the NYT's Ashley Parker about being onboard the Pence plane, and how the campaign charters are not exactly flown like commercial jets: lots more turbulence, missed runways, sharp banking and hard landings, FAA guidelines going a-begging.

(I try not to think about the possible implications of all that.)

One snippet: "The only reliable thing about the Wi-Fi on the flights, which often cost several thousand per leg, is that it won’t always work." At first read, I thought she was referring to the cost of the wi-fi, but even then, the press pack following Trump and Pence is paying the campaign millions of dollars to ride those planes. I'd love to see the final totals for that, comparing the campaign's charter fees for the Trump press plane & Pence plane to the amount the news orgs pay, because for once (surely?) it wouldn't be under NDA.
posted by holgate at 12:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

a party that now has fully revealed itself to be mostly crazed fascists and a depraved press corps that treats hunting her like sport?

QFMFT

So, uh, they're planning on impeaching her and they're planning on obstructing her supreme court justices. They're going to refuse to approve her cabinet too aren't they

I dare to dream that she will lead bigly and give them the political beatdown they so deserve. Like a friggin paddleball. I hope she learned from Bill and Barack and will not give the store away for nothing.

GOP: Give in to our crazed fascistic demands or the country gets it!
CLINTON: *click*
. . .
*ring* *ring*
posted by petebest at 12:45 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

> Renovation permits? Ffs, next they will get someone to say they saw Clinton go through the 10 items or less grocery lane with 11 things.

But then if you dig into the story a little more you'll discover that 3 of them were identical packages of butter (she was baking some fucking cookies, ok?)

If we are sticking with how things are done it will be one package of butter with four sticks in it and they are counting the sticks rather than the package. And it will actually be in the basket of the person behind her that she briefly spoke to and it turns out they are the partner of a republican local office candidate. And they entered the country illegally. Using an ID provided by a Mob boss uncle. And it will turn out to be margarine not butter. And it wasn't Hillary but instead her fourth cousin. And the cashier will be a FBI plant with historical ties to COINTELPRO. And then you will realize you are watching an Adam Curtis thing on BBC.
posted by srboisvert at 12:46 PM on October 30, 2016 [28 favorites]

When well-known Trumpers start threatening genocide...

@paxdickinson:
if @Evan_McMullin succeeds and throws the election to Hillary, Mormons will be blamed for it. Chance of a future Mormocaust spikes sharply.

@paxdickinson:
America hasn't boasted a popular movement favoring genocide of Mormons for well over a century but @Evan_McMullin is working to change that.
posted by chris24 at 12:46 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

and I may even spring for one of the new Tim Kaine shirts

Wait. What?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:46 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

The bizarre secrecy around her bout of pneumonia too: why?
She was experiencing symptoms for only a couple days before she had her doctor check (prudent and not worth publicizing if it 'turns out to be nothing'), and got the diagnosis less than 48 hours before the "9/11 Memorial" event which she obviously did not want to miss and equally obviously didn't want to upstage. But when she had to leave early because she was feeling shitty and visibly stumbled on the way to her car, it inevitably triggered the "she's sick/she's dying" conspiracy to go into high gear, just what she wanted to prevent. So, a semi-reasonably made decision turned out seriously wrong, but it sure didn't look like "bizarre secrecy" to me, given the timetable of events.
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [38 favorites]

Aha, Tim Kaine tee
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:51 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

When well-known Trumpers start threatening genocide...

Trump started his campaign with genocide as his signature plank. It's just expanding in scope.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 12:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

When well-known Trumpers start threatening genocide...

As terrifying as that is, I can think of very few groups prepared to fight against such a movement quite as effectively as the mormons.
posted by Mitrovarr at 12:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

Trump rally speaker fantasizes about death of Hillary Clinton

Conservative commentator Wayne Allyn Root, describing his fantasy of a made-for-TV movie about Clinton and aide Huma Abedin, said, “We all get our wish. The ending is like ‘Thelma and Louise.” In the 1991 film, the title characters drive over a cliff to their death. Root’s line drew cheers from rally attendees.

:(
posted by Talez at 12:56 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Pax Dickinson ♔ ‏@paxdickinson
IMPORTANT NOTE: Sometimes I'm making a serious political argument, but sometimes I just want an excuse to say a funny word like "Mormocaust"

IT'S JUST A PRANK BRO! JUST A PRANK!

Stupid fucker.
posted by Talez at 1:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

So, uh, they're planning on impeaching her and they're planning on obstructing her supreme court justices.

Which is why the downticket races are so damned important. If the Democrats capture the Senate, her nominees will get through and a House impeachment won't even get a hearing. And, based on the things I'm hearing about the close races, the new Democratic Senators will giver her a much more liberal Upper House than Obama had in 2009... Evan Bayh looks like the only "Blue Dog" and he's also known for following where the wind is blowing.

A House takeover is almost impossible, but cutting the margin in half would mean the Republicans will need to be seriously unified, which they are obviously NOT. And when there is a general lack of unity, there's the possibility of a couple defections on key issues from semi-reasonable Rs once the Trump Rump becomes less frightening.

So the GOTV is the BIG FUCKING DEAL, and Hillary and her people know it.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [24 favorites]

This is a serious question.

Is chris24 actually Chris Hayes?
posted by Talez at 1:05 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

The ending is like ‘Thelma and Louise.” In the 1991 film, the title characters drive over a cliff to their death. Root’s line drew cheers from rally attendees.

I think there's a general misconception that "Thelma and Louise" was a 'pro-feminist' movie. Where I saw it, in Liberal Southern California, the ending got cheers, and I was not sure how many of them were based on "They're free! Nobody can hurt them now!" and how many were "Those bitches are getting what's coming to them!"
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Earlier today, Conway told Stephanopoulos that Fathenthold and the Post are biased against Trump. In response, Farenthold is tweeting some of the 70+ questions he sent to the Trump campaign before the article was published, asking for specific details about the events he details. They never responded.
posted by zachlipton at 1:11 PM on October 30, 2016 [24 favorites]

Is chris24 actually Chris Hayes?

Ha! No, just a photographer who when he's not out shooting is home editing images with Twitter to distract me. And I'll be much more productive editing come November 9th.
posted by chris24 at 1:13 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

I think that Comey has just raised the stakes for the Senate - and Trump's partisans won't have spotted it. You know what would help, big league? Putting a Black Lives Matter supporter in charge of the FBI. And as Comey has provided grounds for his removal as soon as the election is done if the Dems take the Senate - does anyone want to bet that Clinton already has a candidate in mind?
posted by Francis at 1:14 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you would like top click a map and see electoral votes rise, bbc haa a little game. It's kinda cathartic to give Hillary all the swing states.
posted by AlexiaSky at 1:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Ha! No, just a photographer who when he's not out shooting is home editing images with Twitter to distract me. And I'll be much more productive editing come November 9th.

I'll believe you. Only because Chris Hayes was born in '79 not '78.
posted by Talez at 1:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

K honestly though. Can we all chip in and get Huma an Edible Arrangement or a nice bundt cake or something?
posted by Senor Cardgage at 1:26 PM on October 30, 2016 [25 favorites]

I'll believe you. Only because Chris Hayes was born in '79 not '78

I'm halfway convinced that Chris Hayes is a Vincent Adultman who made it.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:28 PM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

> If we are sticking with how things are done it will be one package of butter with four sticks in it and they are counting the sticks rather than the package.

Ok ok how about this: it turns out it wasn't her, she just let someone go ahead of her because they just had a package of eggs and nothing else. Months later, after the furor dies down, it is reignited with the revelation that it wasn't 11 eggs, it was 12!
posted by contraption at 1:30 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

the revelation that it wasn't 11 eggs, it was 12
...and the egg carton was made in China.
posted by Namlit at 1:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Hah! The Roanoake Times just endorsed McRory to remain Governor of North Carolina! Why? Because it's based in Virginia and they like the competitive advantage he gives Virginia.
posted by Francis at 1:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [26 favorites]

It is really stupid of the Republicans to use the Comey indignity. Imagine a purged FBI, leaning left, investigating just about every Republican during election season (which is almost always). The only Republicans who are speaking out against Trump now are those who are clean enough for the electorate to vote for them.
The Trump campaign is not only a voter scam, it is also blackmailing the Republicans.
(I have no evidence for this other than the absurd lack of balls of the R leadership).
posted by mumimor at 1:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

You know what would help, big league? Putting a Black Lives Matter supporter in charge of the FBI.

At very least, the era of Dem presidents attempting to show bipartisan creds by nominating "big GOP daddies" in top security/law enforcement positions where the GOP has the traditional "strong on..." rating:

Even when, like Bernake, they’re competent and relatively progressive within their specialized fields, it creates the impression that Republicans are the Party of Adults (which is particularly silly when the typical Republican public official in 2016 is an ideological fanatic who couldn’t be trusted to run a lemonade stand with Ice-T’s supervision.) At worst, you end up with cases like this, when it would require the wisdom of Solomon to determine the precise ratio of malevolence-to-incompetence involved.

There are clearly difficulties doing that for institutions with a small-c conservative culture: a meritocratic promotion from the senior career branch will probably elevate someone whose personal beliefs mirror the institution. But this campaign has exposed the stress points in the security agencies of democratic states that wannabe authoritarians push against.
posted by holgate at 1:35 PM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

I just now got called by my (Michigan) county Democratic Party looking for GOTV phonebankers for next weekend, and they were thrilled by my enthusiasm, lemmetellya. I already joined the MeFI calling team and will probably only do that rather than the in-person variety. Haven't made any calls yet because I've got a buttload of papers to grade and a sore back at the moment, so I'm trying to dispense with all that in the next couple of days before staring down my phone-performance-anxiety demons and doing some calls. But call I certainly fucking will, and this stupid goddamn infuriating renewed email-permits-parkingticket "Hillary once spit on sidewalk; BURN THE WITCH" bullshit has only made me more determined.

I did Obama canvassing and phonebanking in 2008, and it was fine, but I'm so, so, so glad there's the Call from Home set-up now since that's a lot less nervewracking and stagefrighty than calling total strangers while surrounded by a roomful of mostly total strangers.
posted by FelliniBlank at 1:39 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

Being a Bumpkin

Over and over, Isenberg explains, those seventeenth century “waste people” today labeled white trash were forced into defensive positions, driven to the poorest-performing farms on the most distant frontiers, away from interactions with social superiors who at times speculate they may be genetically distinct from these pitiful wretches. In the past two decades, many among the white trash—still on the defensive, as ever—have been motivated to support reactionary political causes. The writer Thomas Frank argues in What’s the Matter With Kansas? that these individuals are voting against their economic interests, but Isenberg provides compelling evidence that they might be attempting to preserve things more important to them: their reputations and their way of life, such as they are. (Elliott Gorn’s work on nineteenth century rough-and-tumble fighting among poor whites also noted that honor alone impelled these violent conflicts, which often ended only with the gouging of an eyeball from its socket.) Today, as some among the white trash throw their support behind Donald Trump’s wall-building, xenophobic presidential campaign, it remains an open question as to whether most of them fantasize about inflicting grievous hurt on others or if they merely wish to be heard.

Hillbilly Elitism

The outpouring of right-wing support shouldn’t be surprising. Vance, after all, is one of them, and Hillbilly Elegy staunchly defends the up-by-your-own-bootstraps fairy tale that capitalism has always used to win support from the underclasses.

But of course, the book is not aimed at that underclass (few books are), but rather a middle- and upper-class readership more than happy to learn that white American poverty has nothing to do with them or with any structural problems in American economy and society and everything to do with poor folks’ inherent vices.

Inside the Sacrifice Zone

Though both parties consider their opposite number to be the un-American interlopers, only observers on the left seem to be writing these books; we’re still waiting for “What’s the Matter with Manhattan?” or “Brattleboro Elegy.” Often the author is a reformed member of the lost tribe: Frank and Bageant grew up in the places they later chronicled as outsiders, which allows them a degree of scorn their more clinical colleagues avoid. But all of the authors approach their subject with a puzzlement lined with despair. How, they ask, can so many people live in an upside-down reality, denouncing everything the writers consider virtuous, embracing everything they consider immoral? As Frank wrote on the first page of his book, “How could so many people get it so wrong?”

Arlie Russell Hochschild’s Strangers in Their Own Land is the most satisfying example yet of this fish-out-of-water approach, with a premise out of Preston Sturges.

Really, I'd make a post on the spate of "Explaining White Trump Support" books, but it's election-fodder.

Donald Trump Is the First Demagogue of the Anthropocene

I write and report on climate change, not a pursuit that usually encourages optimism, but watching all this unfold with the atmosphere in mind has been particularly bleak. For the past few months in particular, I’ve been thinking: Wow, this is all happening way earlier than I thought it would.

Spend enough time with some of the worst-case climate scenarios, and you may start to assume, as I did, that a major demagogue would contest the presidency in the next century. I figured that the catastrophic consequences of planetary warming would all but ensure the necessary conditions for such a leader, and I imagined their support coming from a movement motivated by ethnonationalism, economic stagnation, and hatred of immigrants and refugees. I pictured, in other words, something not so far from Trump 2016.

I just assumed it wouldn’t pop up until 2040.

The Republican Waterloo

"Prison for Hillary"

In lynch-mob fashion, the crowd shouted “guilty” to everything: The rise of ISIS, the use of a private email server when she was Secretary of State, even the turbulence in the Middle East. GUILTY. GUILTY. GUILTY. Christie charged Hillary was the “chief engineer of the disastrous overthrow of Qaddafi in Libya;” she “amazingly fought for two years to keep an Al Qaeda affiliate off the terrorist watch list,” which resulted in the kidnapping of hundreds of young girls by Boko Haram: GUILTY, LOCK HER UP. Christie claimed she was responsible for the deaths of the 400,000 people killed in Syria’s civil war. GUILTY. It went on and on. A New York Times fact-check shows that Christie twisted, distorted, and out-right lied about his facts. No one bothered to mention that this former federal prosecutor did not cite a single criminal law she had violated, for there was none. This was pure demagoguery of the ugliest kind.

The Problem with Personality Contests - "The real problem with Trump, when it comes to taxes, is not what he pays or doesn’t pay, but how his tax plan would affect everyone’s tax burden. And there the numbers are not pretty."
posted by the man of twists and turns at 1:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [63 favorites]

Question that may have been covered in this or any earlier thread - My apologies if this has been asked before:

My anxiety is at an all time high right now (because of the election and other unrelated factors) and I just can't stomach the idea of phone banking or canvasing in person. I just can't, you guys. I'm sorry.

Is there anything at all I can do to help that doesn't involve those two things?
posted by Hey Dean Yeager! at 1:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

I did Obama canvassing and phonebanking in 2008, and it was fine, but I'm so, so, so glad there's the Call from Home set-up now since that's a lot less nervewracking and stagefrighty than calling total strangers while surrounded by a roomful of mostly total strangers

I find the opposite to be true. I'm reassured by the other people doing the same thing, and the stories they tell about the time they called the person next to them, etc. YMMV.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Earlier today, Conway told Stephanopoulos that Fathenthold and the Post are biased against Trump.

I am so tired of hearing all these complaints about bias. Wait, scratch that—I am so tired of hearing all these complaints about bias go unremarked on. It's just such a lazy argument. You're not refuting their points. You're not denying their claims. You're not attacking their logic. You're not undermining their sources. You're not exposing their premises. You're not even critiquing their grammar, for God's sake. At best, you're suggesting that there are other problems they should be focusing on instead of you, but you don't even bother to explain what those problems are or why they're more important. You are simply declaring that the mere fact of their arguing against you makes that argument illegitimate.

It's just like the xkcd strip that said that "saying you have a right to free speech is conceding that the best argument you have for your position is that it's not literally illegal to express." Saying that someone is biased against you is conceding that the best rebuttal you have for their argument is that you wish they wouldn't argue against you so much.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 1:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [72 favorites]

Hey Dean Yeager! You could donate money, if you've got it. Or bring nice stuff to your local campaign office (food, flowers, beverages) to help out the folks who are working there.
posted by Sublimity at 1:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

Is there anything at all I can do to help that doesn't involve those two things?

We sometimes need people to do data entry. If you have a spare bedroom and are in a swing state, you might be able to offer it to an out-of-town volunteer. Finally, you might be able to bring in food or bottled water for volunteers.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Is there anything at all I can do to help that doesn't involve those two things?

Send snacks to the local campaign office. Or nice coffee and soda. Or order them some pizza. Call them up, say "do you need snacks? if so, what snacks?"
posted by holgate at 1:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

There are quite a few sites out there giving "odds" that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency, and they are all over the place. Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight actually have three different calculations, which give Clinton a 79%, 81.1%, and 80.4% chance, respectively.

How can we live with this uncertainty?!? Make up your goddamned mind, Silver.
posted by msalt at 1:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

A field report from a Canadian visiting inlaws in Greenville, SC:

One bumper sticker out of all the 1000+ cars I've probably seen driving around; I've been in town for 24 hours and while I haven't spent a ton of time in residential neighbourhoods, I've been up and down highways, the whole downtown, a lot of shopping plazas, one gated-esque community and one substantial subdivision and haven't seen a single sign, either.

I wasn't expecting Hillary, but I'm astounded by how... quiet the Trump support is, if there even is any. The one person who has been politically vocal to us was a cashier at a Bi-Lo who told us that she might move to Canada if Trump wins (when she asked where I was from).

Maybe this is because SC is so safely red nobody feels the need to demonstrate any kind of party support; kind of like nobody wears "VADER FOR SITH LORD" t-shirts on the Death Star, it's kind of a given. But I was expecting more right-wing fooferaw just kind of ambiently out there in the open. There's nothing here. You wouldn't even know it was an election year, cruising the downtown and the surrounding highways. Super quiet.
posted by Shepherd at 1:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Call them up, say "do you need snacks? if so, what snacks?"

Nothing worse, e.g., than having plates of cookies and no beverages.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

If a president is going to break the precedent of "FBI directors don't get fired and never resign"

Its rare, but FBI directors do get fired. Bill Clinton fired William Sessions due to abuse of the benefits of his office. (Clinton gave him the opportunity to resign first, but Sessions refused.)
posted by longdaysjourney at 1:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hey Dean Yeager! There's a page at hillaryclinton.com that shows different volunteer options, including dropping off snax at local campaign offices. (On preview, covered above, ha ha)
posted by mon-ma-tron at 1:55 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

You know what would help, big league? Putting a Black Lives Matter supporter in charge of the FBI.

Or at least Corey Booker?
posted by msalt at 1:55 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

The man of twists and turns, that is an outstanding comment, and I think it should be a post in itself.
posted by mumimor at 1:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Its rare, but FBI directors do get fired. Bill Clinton fired William Sessions due to abuse of the benefits of his office. (Clinton gave him the opportunity to resign first, but Sessions refused.)

Comey broke longstanding department policy even after being explictly told not to by his superiors and by ethics counsel. An investigation through proper channels -- presumably the DOJ Inspector General -- that confirmed his violation should be plenty of justification for Obama or Clinton to fire him. (It seems unlikely that an investigation would be completed by January 21st.)
posted by msalt at 1:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Can we all chip in and get Huma an Edible Arrangement or a nice bundt cake or something?

If someone sends me an edible arrangement I assume it's a form of punishment. So let's send one to Weiner.
posted by dis_integration at 2:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

New Yorker: Queen offers to restore British rule over United States.
posted by Wordshore at 2:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

If someone sends me an edible arrangement I assume it's a form of punishment. So let's send one to Weiner.

Hotdog on a stick.
posted by Artw at 2:03 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Without Freddie Mercury?
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:03 PM on October 30, 2016 [17 favorites]

New Yorker: Queen offers to restore British rule over United States.

Sure, the one country proven to be more self-destructive (TTTCS)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:03 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Weiner gets the regifted fruit cake.
posted by Lyme Drop at 2:03 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Phone banking from home into Ohio, I got a woman who was so worked up into a tizzy about "being done with politicians" that my mere presence on the phone practically had her frothing. I think she'd go for the Queen Elizabeth option if it was available.
posted by zachlipton at 2:04 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

ffs. It writes itself. Wiener gets sent dildos.
posted by mikelieman at 2:05 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm feeling a little queasy from seeing "edible arrangement" and "Weiner" in the same comment.
posted by FelliniBlank at 2:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

So Borowitz has run out of ideas?
posted by adamg at 2:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

For some light relief: Trump's rally at the Venetian ended with a call to get on the campaign buses and go to early voting. After a bit of a search around the various valet areas for attendees and reporters alike, two 12-seater minivans showed up, and one of them took seven people to vote.
posted by holgate at 2:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [50 favorites]

feeling a little queasy...
yup, don't wanna know what he does with fruitcakes either
posted by Namlit at 2:07 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Comey broke longstanding department policy even after being explictly told not to by his superiors and by ethics counsel. An investigation through proper channels -- presumably the DOJ Inspector General -- that confirmed his violation should be plenty of justification for Obama or Clinton to fire him. (It seems unlikely that an investigation would be completed by January 21st.)

Clinton cannot keep him after this. Someone had it right upthread, he's going to be quietly informed that he would like to spend much more time with his family sometime in December. After which he will make a quiet announcement along with a swath of other outgoing Obama officials for cover.

The era of GOP daddies needs to be over, but this is way beyond a Chuck Hagel or Ben Benake disagreeing with the President, Comey just proved he's planning to be a partisan saboteur running a rogue FBI openly against Clinton, at the direction of Sean Hannity and Jason Chaeffetz. He can't stay, precedent be damned.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:07 PM on October 30, 2016 [49 favorites]

Great bunch of links, the man of twists and turns. And excellent blockquotes, especially the first one.

The writer Thomas Frank argues in What’s the Matter With Kansas? that these individuals are voting against their economic interests, but Isenberg provides compelling evidence that they might be attempting to preserve things more important to them: their reputations and their way of life, such as they are.

This was a one-sentence revelation. Like the coal miners who don't want to be moved away from the coal mines to jobs that are more comfortable, less dangerous and likely better paying, because they aren't "our way of life". It also puts the lie to the "We want our children to have better lives than ours" claim. They don't want their children to be successful doing something they didn't do because that would show that they didn't make the right decisions. What they want is for their children to 'follow in their footsteps' and be just enough more successful at it to support them in their old age; that is, to pay back for the trouble and expense of raising them. It's an old, obsolete "way of life" that persists stubbornly... and has had more people forced to give up than realize on their own that it's a generational dead end. And it may also be an element in the "Second Generation Wealth Syndrome" where the children of parents who 'made it big' fail to improve on their parents' wealth end up wasting much of what they inherit. The parents subconsciously don't want their children to do even better than they did. It certainly helps to explain Fred and Donald Trump.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:14 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

Seriously, is she winking to the audience here?

Kellyanne Conway: Trump fan yelling ‘Jew-S-A’ behaved in ‘deplorable’ way
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:16 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

How Hillary Clinton Met Satan

One of the mysteries of 2016 is the degree to which Hillary Clinton is reviled. Not just rationally opposed but viscerally and instinctively hated. None of the stated reasons for the animus seem to satisfy. Yes, she’s careful and cagey, and her use of a private email server, which the F.B.I. flung back into the news on Friday, was a big mistake. But no, she’s not more dishonest than other politicians, and compared with her opponent, she’s George Washington. Her policies, even where bold, are hardly on the subversive fringe.

Yet she’s cast not just as a political combatant but as a demon who, in the imaginings of Republicans like Paul D. Ryan, the speaker of the House, and Representative Trent Franks, would create an America “where passion — the very stuff of life — is extinguished” (the former) and where fetuses would be destroyed “limb from limb” (the latter).
...
The left needs to acknowledge what the right has long known: that it’s a fiction to think we can move on beyond the brawl of the 1990s without settling it — and settling it requires helping Mrs. Clinton triumph once and for all against the calumnies that were created to define her. It would be a mistake to think that Mrs. Clinton, the imperfect politician, is not the right standard-bearer for this fight. She was nominated to her role not last July at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, but in 1992, when her husband destroyed the myth of Republican invincibility and Hillary Clinton was anointed the feminine face of evil.

posted by kirkaracha at 2:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [24 favorites]

And it may also be an element in the "Second Generation Wealth Syndrome" where the children of parents who 'made it big' fail to improve on their parents' wealth end up wasting much of what they inherit. The parents subconsciously don't want their children to do even better than they did. It certainly helps to explain Fred and Donald Trump.

There's a wealth adviser advertising in our business review whose angle is that by the third generation, the accumulated assets are gone, and he can help with strategies to prevent that.
posted by mikelieman at 2:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oneswellfoop, it's crab buckets all the way down.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 2:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

oneswellfoop: I think that's a really harsh reading, as I've discussed in other threads on this topic. Generational sacrifice is a thing, but it's also a thing to know the limits of what you know, feel safe within those limits, but still be limited by them.

For working-class parents in one-industry towns, it's a leap of faith to tell children with very different ambitions: "I admit I don't know much about what you want to do with your life, and I can't directly help you get where you want to be, but I'll always support you." I'm so grateful my own parents told me that early on.
posted by holgate at 2:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

Waters: Facing felony, he asked to vote first

By pleading guilty, the attorney explained, Albright would be rendered infamous.

That meant he would be deprived of some of his rights as a citizen – his rights to have a gun, to sit on a jury, to hold public office.

"What about my right to vote?" Albright asked.

"You'd lose that, too," attorney Alex Wharton replied.

"Can I vote before I plead guilty?" Albright asked.

Wharton, son of former Mayor A C Wharton, couldn't believe what he was hearing.

Wharton decided to ask the judge for a brief continuance so Albright could go vote.

The U.S. attorney did not object.

“The government had no objection in this case to the court allowing the defendant the opportunity to exercise his constitutional right to vote before pleading guilty," said U.S. Attorney Edward Stanton III.

U.S. District Judge John T. Fowlkes Jr. said yes.

"Did you vote?" the judge asked.

"Yes, sir," Albright said, pointing to his Tennessee-shaped "I Voted" sticker.

He thanked the judge for allowing him to vote for the first time in his life.

posted by Talez at 2:27 PM on October 30, 2016 [167 favorites]

bookmark and reminder to vote early if you get a chance so as to make room for others who cannot (hopefully arishaun and I will do so next weekend)
posted by infinitewindow at 2:32 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Talez, that is heart breaking.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

The NYT just doesn't want to admit that like headlines matter do they? That some people will only see the headline. "How Hillary Clinton Met Satan" as a headline is just awful. You and I and many others will see that and realize the article is probably not literally what the headline says. There are clearly a lot of people for whom they would wonder as ridiculous as it seems to me, especially since Republican leaders (Trump gets that label since he's their nominee) are literally saying as much. They don't necessarily read the Times, but I'm sure people who thinks the Times is liberal biased media still see those headlines in social media and such. Barf.
posted by R343L at 2:35 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

Not to pile on Medford, MA, but you know what they don't do there? Give out "I Voted" stickers. Somebody set up a Kickstarter to buy them for civic-minded Medfordians (it didn't reach its goal, but the last update said the amount raised was enough to buy stickers anyway).

Not true, I got one. The dapper elderly gentleman who pointed out the slot where I should place my ballot envelope served me one piping hot off the roll. No shortage of other reasons to pile on Medford, though...
posted by the painkiller at 2:38 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Facing felony, he asked to vote first

That is a dusty story.

*snff*
posted by petebest at 2:42 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

The sticker thing befuddles non-unitedstatesian me.
I mean — it's a nice bonus thing, but it's not really all that important, isn't it?
posted by farlukar at 2:45 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

I didn't mean for my last comment, at length about Generational Issues, to be as harsh at it appeared. The "way of life" obsession is just one of several, often conflicting, factors in the way parents treat, and teach, their children, but it was one I hadn't given enough thoughtspace to until I read that quote...
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

538: How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?

Spoiler: not very much, maybe 2 points max. Also, the article notes that in 2012, Obama's total was 3% higher than his final polling numbers. There's a good chance that much of that is the result of the Dem's GOTV operation, which will almost certainly give them a bigger advantage this year.
posted by msalt at 2:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

With alt-right people now constantly promising/threatening genocide, let's talk about the possibilities for genocide in America.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Grrr. Our criminal justice system. Kid barely an adult, loses resources, makes a stupid decision, is the driver in a botched (!) robbery and faces 20 years in prison. I sure hope he doesn't get any near that much (and why the hell does he have to wait months to find out?!)

In short, vote for Democrats since at least SOME of them will talk about real criminal justice reform.
posted by R343L at 2:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

The sticker thing befuddles non-unitedstatesian me.
I mean — it's a nice bonus thing, but it's not really all that important, isn't it?

Not really, but it's a point of pride for some.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:49 PM on October 30, 2016

Spotted on FoxNews: New poll: 34% 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations.

Not agreeing, just reporting.
posted by StrawberryPie at 2:53 PM on October 30, 2016

Shocking.
posted by petebest at 2:54 PM on October 30, 2016

The sticker thing befuddles non-unitedstatesian me.

It's like, "I got candy last time", or "everybody else is getting candy?" It just seems unfair that voting in different places results in different results. Everybody should get a sticker.

And, in a country where roughly half the people don't give enough of a shit to actually drag their ass to the polls, it feels good to have a temporary tattoo that says "I Care!"

Also, stickers go back to some pokemon level of childhood: "I did good! I got a sticker!"
posted by valkane at 2:56 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

> "Spotted on FoxNews: New poll: 34% 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations."

That poll, incidentally, did not ask or specify who the voters had planned to vote for before the "revelations".
posted by kyrademon at 2:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

Presumably, those 34% who say they are less likely to vote Clinton were already part of Trump's voter pool, and would have said the same thing about the news about her home renovation permits.
posted by saturday_morning at 2:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [17 favorites]

The NYT just doesn't want to admit that like headlines matter do they? That some people will only see the headline. "How Hillary Clinton Met Satan" as a headline is just awful.

I'm not so worried about that one and the NYT specifically, because anyone who reads the Times in good faith will get it, and anyone who is reading that headline literally is not reading in good faith. The NYT isn't really big among the "satan is literally a real guy who a human politician could have a conversation with" set.

On the other hand, I'm sick and goddamn tired of FBI CONSIDERS REOPENING CLINTON EMAIL INVESTIGATION, wherein "considers" means, like, *if* something significant were to happen, they *might* consider it. And the many, many weaselly and hyperbolic headlines I've seen for this entire election season from basically any media outlet that wants social media engagement. Misleading clickbait headlines are the new version of that "some say" weasel word garbage all the cable news media were doing in the post-9/11 runup to Iraq period of the Bush administration. It is dangerous, and just as most reputable outlets stopped using weasel words to imply that conjecture or fiction was actually true, I really hope they now catch on that you can't write a hyperbolic headline that has almost nothing to do with the content of the article just for the clicks.
posted by Sara C. at 2:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

I was just reading someone's post on Facebook, and it occurred to me that in all likelihood, Disney is going to get to put a woman in the Hall of Presidents.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 3:04 PM on October 30, 2016 [18 favorites]

Sara C: I know it doesn't matter much but it sure would be nice if the NYT pretended like parts of America exists that actually do. This to me is a symptom of the cultural divide. Whoever wrote that headline thinks believing in literal Satan is silly so that headline is as serious as a headline talking about one that mentioned cutting open an animal to use its entrails to predict the future. But of course, half the country does actually believe in some notion of Satan and many are willing to believe that entity talks to politicians. :(
posted by R343L at 3:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

> "Presumably, those 34% who say they are less likely to vote Clinton were already part of Trump's voter pool, and would have said the same thing about the news about her home renovation permits."

Or about slight breezes, or dogs barking, or the sun setting ...
posted by kyrademon at 3:07 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

The sticker also advertises to other people you run into throughout the day that:

1. Today is election day (or, in places with early voting, voting is an option today),

2. Regular people who you know and interact with frequently vote,

and

3. Voting is a good thing that you should feel good about.
posted by Sara C. at 3:07 PM on October 30, 2016 [39 favorites]

The sticker thing befuddles non-unitedstatesian me.
I mean — it's a nice bonus thing, but it's not really all that important, isn't it?
posted by farlukar at 5:45 PM on October 30 [1 favorite +] [!]

I wish everyone everywhere got them for voting. I love getting mine. It's a nice little souvenir. Mine from previous years have ended up on billfolds, guitars, laptops, etc. Sometimes they just fall off somewhere or get thrown out. But every two years, you can get a new one. It's a memento of all the thought and consideration that goes into filling out the ballot. It's a little badge of awesome reminding us to keep up the work. It's a symbol. Symbols vary in mportance. I's be very disappointed to not get one. But I'd get over it.
posted by Cookiebastard at 3:08 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

Harry Reid goes nuclear on Comey. Sends letter saying he's exhibited a clear intent to benefit one party, invokes the Hatch Act, says he's withholding explosive information about Trump's Russia connections, and that he regrets leading the fight to confirm him. Really, you gotta read it.

@sahilkapur
New @SenatorReid letter to James Comey re: Hatch Act: "Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law." [letter]
posted by chris24 at 3:08 PM on October 30, 2016 [59 favorites]

Harry Reid's claws are out, emphasis mine:

Dear Director Comey:

Your actions in recent months have demonstrated a disturbing double standard for the treatment of sensitive information, with what appears to be a clear intent to aid one political party over another. I am writing to inform you that my office has determined that these actions may violate the Hatch Act, which bars FBI officials from using their official authority to influence an election. Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law.

The double standard established by your actions is clear.

In my communications with you and other top officials in the national security community, it has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government – a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States, which Trump praises at every opportunity. The public has a right to know this information. I wrote to you months ago calling for this information to be released to the public. There is no danger to American interests from releasing it. And yet, you continue to resist calls to inform the public of this critical information.

By contrast, as soon as you came into possession of the slightest innuendo related to Secretary Clinton, you rushed to publicize it in the most negative light possible.

Moreover, in tarring Secretary Clinton with thin innuendo, you overruled longstanding tradition and the explicit guidance of your own Department. You rushed to take this step eleven days before a presidential election, despite the fact that for all you know, the information you possess could be entirely duplicative of the information you already examined which exonerated Secretary Clinton.

As you know, a memo authored by Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates on March 10, 2016, makes clear that all Justice Department employees, including you, are subject to the Hatch Act. The memo defines the political activity prohibited under the Hatch Act as “activity directed towards the success or failure of a political party, candidate for partisan political office, or partisan political group.”

The clear double-standard established by your actions strongly suggests that your highly selective approach to publicizing information, along with your timing, was intended for the success or failure of a partisan candidate or political group.

Please keep in mind that I have been a supporter of yours in the past. When Republicans filibustered your nomination and delayed your confirmation longer than any previous nominee to your position, I led the fight to get you confirmed because I believed you to be a principled public servant.

With the deepest regret, I now see that I was wrong.

Sincerely,

Senator Harry Reid

posted by xyzzy at 3:08 PM on October 30, 2016 [172 favorites]

With alt-right people now constantly promising/threatening genocide, let's talk about the possibilities for genocide in America.

Noah Smith ‏@Noahpinion
15/The # of American whites willing to join a genocide is probably small. The number of whites willing to fight against it might be larger.

My wife's Jewish. You bet your fucking ass I'd take up arms against any white supremacist attempt at genocide.
posted by Talez at 3:09 PM on October 30, 2016 [32 favorites]

Waters: Facing felony, he asked to vote first

The worst part of this story (though the fact that he pled guilty to something that could result in anything between probation and 20 years is absurd) is that "Tennessee has perhaps the most irrational and confusing felony disenfranchisement laws in the nation" and
Tennessee Ranks Near the Top in Felony Disenfranchisement. To ever vote again in Tennessee, even after he's served his sentence, Albright will have to petition a court, pay court costs, attend a hearing, put on character witnesses, notify the DA and the US attorney, either of which can show up to fight his petition, and he has to do all that (or pay a lawyer to do all that) while dealing with all the other bullshit we apply to people we've labeled felons.

In other words, if he stays in Tennessee, there's a good chance this could have been the first and only time he's ever able to vote in his life.

If we're going to disenfranchise felons at all, it is just plain wrong to not restore voting right automatically upon release.
posted by zachlipton at 3:09 PM on October 30, 2016 [24 favorites]

R343L, the difference is that the NYT is catering to their readers. There's no reason for them to write their newspaper as if most people reading it believe in a literal Satan, because very few people actually do, and the vast majority of those people are not readers of the NYT.

I agree that the Times should acknowledge that such people exist, but not to the point of designing headlines with them in mind. I mean, "Hillary Clinton Literally Met With Satan Yesterday In Chappaqua, Trascript Herein", maybe not. But I think it's fine for respected news outlets which cater to an educated and largely secular readership to write headlines that use metaphors.
posted by Sara C. at 3:10 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Re the stickers: in some developing countries, when you vote you stick your finger in indelible dye, as a way of preventing people from voting multiple times. I remember after the first post-Arab-Spring Tunisian election, tons of people were posting their blue fingers on social media.
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:11 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

Congressional aid says Chaffetz got notice from Comey & tweeted before Dems on the Committee saw it.
posted by madamjujujive at 3:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

In case you were wondering where we were in the Hamilton script that is this election, that letter makes us clear that we are in the "I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant H dot Reid" phase.
posted by zachlipton at 3:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [52 favorites]

Here we go: election ink
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:13 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

The sticker thing befuddles non-unitedstatesian me.

Purely personal anecdata but fwiw:

To me, getting that "I voted" sticker is exciting because it reminds me of when I was a kid and I saw all these adults getting the sticker, and I was so excited for the day when I would finally be able to vote. I loved going with my parents* when they voted, and I can still remember the excitement of registering to vote right after my 18th birthday. I still get a thrill every time I get to cast a ballot, and when I get the "I voted" sticker, it just fills me with that same child-like glee.

It's hard to really explain well, because it's not particularly rational, but, what can I say? Stickers are awesome.

*Actually, I stopped going with my father to vote after the 2000 election, when I'm pretty sure he voted for George W. Bush right in front of me just to piss me off. In Florida. Where Bush won the state with ~500 votes. I still get angry thinking about it, but then again, my father's a jerk who I'm no longer in contact with, for a number of reasons so...yeah.
posted by litera scripta manet at 3:14 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

New poll: 34% 'less likely' to vote for Clinton after new email revelations.

34% of what sample? If it was a sample of voters who each would have given themselves a 1% likelihood of voting for Clinton and would now give 0.1%, that's not very relevant to the outcome.
posted by Coventry at 3:16 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Re:stickers

It also sucks when there aren't stickers for people who vote by mail, so then Election Day comes and everybody else has their sticker and you look like a schmuck who didn't vote. But I did! Early, even! (Do you think if I went to a polling place (Phoenix) and showed them on my phone that my ballot was counted, they'd give me a sticker, or would that be a waste of polling place resources for trivial reasons?)
posted by Weeping_angel at 3:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

In my communications with you and other top officials in the national security community, it has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government – a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States, which Trump praises at every opportunity.

October surprise? Reid goes full Red October. Man oh man I'm curious what he's implying here.
posted by chris24 at 3:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [47 favorites]

Congressional aid says Chaffetz got notice from Comey & tweeted before Dems on the Committee saw it.

If this is actually true and Hillary's statements to that effect at the press conference are therefore accurate, then I can only hope that the upcoming investigations of Comey and Chaffetz are broadcast live. It's been awhile since a legislator was censured.
posted by xyzzy at 3:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

I wrote to you months ago calling for this information to be released to the public. There is no danger to American interests from releasing it.

I like that Reid is implying that something damaging to the Trump campaign is "no danger to American interests".
posted by Surely This at 3:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

Regarding Reid's assertion that the FBI is linking Trump and the Russian hacking: the same scenario opens Richard Painter's piece in the NYT stating that he'd filed a Hatch Act complaint against Comey--but there the scenario was presented as a hypothetical. Reading it I wondered if it were not actually so hypothetical....
posted by Sublimity at 3:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

GodDAMMIT. My mother, who I convinced (mostly) that the "news" has a vested interest in keeping this thing a horse race, has now decided again that Clinton will lose. I am having to live with her due to her recent suicide attempt and mental decline over the past 8 months. We were making progress and now she has that confused and panicked look on her face again. Thanks, ABC, Comey and Trump. I'm not blaming you for my mother's mental illness, but you sure as hell aren't helping.
posted by thebrokedown at 3:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

Stickers are nice, but the Australians get sausages, which is way more awesome.
posted by ryanrs at 3:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

If, like me, you're the kind of person who struggles to remember if he took his meds when he was supposed to, having the "I Voted!" sticker pasted to the calendar is a great way to avoid the infamy of attempting to vote twice.
posted by teirnon at 3:26 PM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Ooh, I think Reid has rattled some cages.

@TomCottonAR
"Harry Reid is a disgrace to American politics, among worst men ever in Senate. He can't go soon enough, & many Democrats privately agree."

FYI, Tom Cotton is the guy who filibustered Cassandra Butts' ambassadorship for the admitted sole reason to punish Obama, and then she died of leukemia while waiting. And of course wrote the Iran letter.
posted by chris24 at 3:27 PM on October 30, 2016 [40 favorites]

Reid is retiring. He has Senate immunity. He should read whatever the FBI is hiding on Trump and Russia on the Senate floor.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [80 favorites]

One of the mysteries of 2016 is the degree to which Hillary Clinton is reviled. Not just rationally opposed but viscerally and instinctively hated. None of the stated reasons for the animus seem to satisfy. Yes, she’s careful and cagey, and her use of a private email server, which the F.B.I. flung back into the news on Friday, was a big mistake. But no, she’s not more dishonest than other politicians, and compared with her opponent, she’s George Washington. Her policies, even where bold, are hardly on the subversive fringe.

My father-in-law, an otherwise sensible man, feels this way about her. It distresses me, because I like the old curmudgeon, generally speaking. My mother-in-law said to me "Look, he's just a misogynist. Not to ME because he knows that would not fly, and not to you or the family but he just hates her and it's probably because she's a woman." She herself is not a huge Clinton fan, and since they've already voted I didn't push on that because what is the point. She did say it's been tense in their house all election season.
posted by emjaybee at 3:31 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

@Mefites who don't get stickers - I bought a roll off amazon and I surely don't know 500 people in real life who will want one. If you want to PM me a name/address I'd be happy to toss a couple in an envelope for you.
posted by miratime at 3:32 PM on October 30, 2016 [39 favorites]

@TomCottonAR
"Harry Reid is a disgrace to American politics, among worst men ever in Senate. He can't go soon enough, & many Democrats privately agree."

Notice the Trumpification of Republican language: it's not enough for Harry Reid to be a "disgrace", he has to be among the "worst men ever" in the history of the Senate, and as evidence he refers to "many" people who agree with him, so many that he can't bother to mention their names.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 3:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [79 favorites]

Comey went to Chaffetz first, not his boss, not through channels he is obligated to use. Because Trump is linked to Putin, and the Russian hackers, I have to assume they got something on Comey, they passed on through Chaffetz. Chaffetz is like a hyper infant in a jumper swing, bat shit crazy on hate, and feelings of potency. After all he is abusing the person most likely to be the next US president, so doesn't that make him powerful? Doesn't that make him potent? I feel sorry for his wife. I feel sorry for Utah, to have this jumping bean on the horn all the time from my state, making us all look concomitantly nuts, I mean even more so than usual.
posted by Oyéah at 3:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Haha, some of the tweets in response to Cotton are hilarious.

Charles P. Pierce ‏@ESQPolitics
@TomCottonAR @brithume @WSJPolitics OK, then let's talk about The Logan Act and ex parte communications with terror-sponsoring states.

This is in reference to a letter Cotton wrote to Iran after getting nowhere with his displeasure over the Iran nuclear deal.
posted by xyzzy at 3:38 PM on October 30, 2016 [36 favorites]

The # of American whites willing to join a genocide is probably small. The number of whites willing to fight against it might be larger.

Noah Smith doesn't have a good grasp of history. For instance, he argues that the US military would refuse to commit genocide - when it was the US military that committed genocide against Native Americans, and which rounded up and confined Japanese Americans in WW2. But as for the general goodwill of Americans being a bar to genocide, how many of them would be willing to support laws that merely discriminate against another group? A high percentage, I suspect; maybe a majority in some places.

Here's a bit of historical perspective: there had been increasing Hungarian antisemitism in the first decades of the 20th century, but as late as 1943 the number of Hungarians who would have supported a genocide of Jews was probably pretty small. Six months later they were cheering as Jews were rounded up and confined to ghettos, from where many of them (about a third) were sent to Auschwitz and murdered.

It is amazing how quickly this sort of thing escalates.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:39 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

@Mefites who don't get stickers - I bought a roll off amazon and I surely don't know 500 people in real life who will want one. If you want to PM me a name/address I'd be happy to toss a couple in an envelope for you.

Yeah I'm not falling for that trick again.
posted by orange ball at 3:44 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Wow wow wow, that Harry Reid letter! The scriptwriters for 2016 are really throwing everything in the mix, aren't they?
posted by overglow at 3:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

It is amazing how quickly this sort of thing escalates.

Agreed. But I honestly believe the number of people who are willing to be on the wrong side of the law to be on the right side of history is enough to roll it back.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm willing to bet a great deal on eventually being right.
posted by Mooski at 3:49 PM on October 30, 2016

A Hillary Clinton secret: lots of voters really like her

@onlxn's take:

MOOK: Someone wrote an article about your supporters.
CLINTON: Finally. Which paper?
MOOK: Toronto Star.
CLINTON: HA

posted by zachlipton at 3:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [34 favorites]

NYT Breaking: Justice Department Obtains Warrant to Review Clinton Aide’s Emails

Federal investigators have obtained a warrant to begin searching a large cache of emails belonging to a top aide to Hillary Clinton, federal law enforcement officials said Sunday, as prosecutors and F.B.I. agents scrambled to review as much of the information as possible before Election Day.

It remains unclear, though, whether they can finish their work by then. “The process has begun,” a federal law enforcement official said.

posted by zachlipton at 3:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

The facts about Hillary Clinton's emails? (The Briefing)
posted by salix at 3:56 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

I honestly believe the number of people who are willing to be on the wrong side of the law to be on the right side of history is enough to roll it back.

I dunno. When being on "the wrong side of the law" means you and your family die too?
posted by ryanrs at 3:57 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

If the FBI has something on Trump's connection to Russia/Putin/Russian hackers, it will probably be public knowledge within 72 hours, because... well, that's how things work. (Or should, all things being equal, which they aren't)

I always believed that Trump's abuse of women wasn't going to hurt him much, since his two divorces (including one where his wife accused him of rape), beauty pageant shenanigans, and super-creepy comments were already very public. That the Billy Bush tape had any resonance was a (not unpleasant) surprise, but when the floodgates of victims came forward, I was disappointed but unsurprised that it didn't amplify the effect.

The one thing that could take another chunk away from Trump's support would be a big piece of good documentation of his Russian Connection. And if Chaffetz and other Congresscritters had pre-knowledge, it'll keep some Loyal American Republicans away from the polls entirely which would be bad for downballot Repubicans. We can only hope.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:58 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

I think the tricky bit is that very few people say "let's be fascists now" or "let's massacre our political opponents" or "let's commit genocide". They spin it differently each time, partly to fool people and partly to let us fool ourselves. To recognize what's happening while it's happening - if it's not happening to you - requires some moral commitment and brains. And it starts in isolation or in a place where it can be hidden or ignored by anyone with power or standing.

Like Joe in Australia is saying, or implying, the intermediate step so people can deny to themselves what's happening until it's totally normalized - that is what has to be in place. People are only confined or given a certain ID, or only taken to a detention center, or only stripped of some basic right or other at first.

Something I did not know until I was looking around in the Yad Vashem archives - aid workers were allowed into the closed ghettos - not just as a Potemkin village thing, either. People knew, up to a point, what was going on. George Orwell mentions how there were left wing projects to try to get refugees to the UK or to try to get some kind of condemnation of Germany. Those things did not get traction, even though most non-Jewish UK people wouldn't have supported killing Jews if you asked them point blank.

What worries me is that something will happen relatively slowly and with a merely-average-terrible face at first, and it won't be recognized until it's too late. The thing is, if you were, let's say, an ordinary left wing person in the UK in 1940 and you were aware of the situation of Jews in Europe, what could you do? How could you convince people? People did stuff, it's true, sometimes unexpected people donated money or helped refugees flee. But they were all weak in the face of the numbers involved.

And consider that we've had mass imprisonments and expulsions here before. Consider that we have a torture prison that everyone knows about, and it was running full speed ahead for years, and it is proving exceedingly hard to close now.

What I worry about is the fact that a lot of bad shit has happened in this century in this country, and it's all passed into the invisible part of history - residential schools, for instance.
posted by Frowner at 3:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [51 favorites]

I've always thought the stickers were infantile and even a bit insulting, like patting a grown woman on the head and saying "good girl", but it does go well with how at least some elected officials think of voters, I suppose.
posted by rokusan at 4:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

> "... prosecutors and F.B.I. agents scrambled to review as much of the information as possible before Election Day."

Great. Let's hope people trying to plough through them quickly and carelessly doesn't result in anything stupid.
posted by kyrademon at 4:03 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

"(though the fact that he pled guilty to something that could result in anything between probation and 20 years is absurd)"

It's cause there was a gun involved which is automatically an aggravating factor when it comes to sentencing. Aka yet another failed "deterrence" idea that sounded good on paper but ended up with the crime happening anyway just with another black guy getting a longer sentence
posted by Hiding From Goro at 4:04 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Felons, whose lives will be forever impacted much more by government than most of our lives, cannot vote in America. This is beyond reprehensible, and I don't understand why more people aren't disgusted by it.

It's in the category of prison labor or even prison rape for me. No, it is not part of the punishment. If the punishment was inadequate, increase it legally until we all agree it's appropriate and measured. Don't add on extra assault, indignity or stripping of rights.

(If that doesn't offend you, think about why Republican lawmakers have fought to make more and more drug offenses felonies over the years. Does that help?)
posted by rokusan at 4:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [52 favorites]

Consider, too, that the US routinely returns people - even children - to very dangerous places when it is not politically convenient to accord them refugee status. If they're fleeing a US-friendly government, for example, it's very difficult to get refugee status - that's been a huge problem with violent US-backed regimes in South and Central America.There's been a huge amount of work here in the Twin Cities with youth refugees who have been targeted by gangs (El Salvador is the particular set of cases I remember) and even though those people are fleeing deadly persecution, it's very hard to keep them from being sent back.

As a country, we are already willing to send teenagers back to almost certain death because it is politically inconvenient to let them stay here. I'm saying that it is very, very easy for very bad things to be done at scale and still remain invisible.
posted by Frowner at 4:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

Felons, whose lives will be forever impacted much more by government than most of our lives, cannot vote in America.

Depends on the state. List.
posted by adamg at 4:09 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Felons, whose lives will be forever impacted much more by government than most of our lives, cannot vote in America. This is beyond reprehensible, and I don't understand why more people aren't disgusted by it.

That's not true in most states.

On preview, what adamg said.
posted by octothorpe at 4:10 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Felons, whose lives will be forever impacted much more by government than most of our lives, cannot vote in America.

It varies by state and would take a constitutional amendment to change at the federal level, I think.
posted by ryanrs at 4:11 PM on October 30, 2016

Early signs of genocide? Watch for the targeted population to be described as disease or vermin. This is all over the place in Nazi anti-Semitic propaganda, and, in Rwanda, the interahamwe controlled radio relentlessly called the Tutsu "cockroaches"
posted by thelonius at 4:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

On preview, what adamg said.

Once again, Adam ruins everything...
posted by Talez at 4:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Felons, whose lives will be forever impacted much more by government than most of our lives, cannot vote in America.

That depends on the state. They can vote in mine (though that's a recent change.)

On preview, what the others are saying but some of those lists are outdated. At least two states made recent changes in favor of voting.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:14 PM on October 30, 2016

My wife has officially tagged out of election coverage. I've been left to monitor it.

I'm just happy our ballot is already in. The next 9 days -- and probably the 10 days after -- may be the most anxious this nation has been since that two weeks after 9/11. I wish I could put Xanax in the drinking water.
posted by dw at 4:14 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

I missed the edit window to add "in many states", so forgive me, kind folk.

(In my defense, I was also rage typing on an airplane. Grrr.)
posted by rokusan at 4:14 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

I am among the 34% who would be less likely to vote for Clinton based on the new information. I was gonna vote for her at any and every opportunity. Now I'd only vote for her about 9,999 times out of 10,000. The other time I might stay in bed if I were sick enough.
posted by tclark at 4:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

Agreed. But I honestly believe the number of people who are willing to be on the wrong side of the law to be on the right side of history is enough to roll it back.

I don't. It's just anecdotes, but here are a couple of things I experienced that have cost me a ton of faith in humanity:

So, I spent a number of years living close to Ferguson, in another one of those tiny little towns. Mine was something like 95-99% white, (the joke being that I was literally the only Middle Eastern guy living there). They mostly seemed like really nice people, and when my girlfriend and I left, she kept a lot of those people on her Facebook. When Ferguson went down, I remember the sweet, kind, very white manager of the local credit union saying, "I don't see what the big deal is about one dead kid."

We never spoke to him again. Her family wasn't very good about it either. They vote Dem, have for probably since before I was born, but they don't have a *clue* how bad that was, and simply refuse to believe the police would engage in wrongdoing. It isn't in their worldview. At all. If the police came for 'undesirables,' I have no faith they'd see a problem with it as long as the news sold it right.

They are very representative of their community. Their views are normal there.

The other thing that happened this election... so, I went to high school with a woman whose grandparents met in an internment camp during WWII, and experienced horrible prejudice afterward. We were friends back in the day, still have each other on Facebook. She's visibly Japanese. She's voting Trump. No irony about 'hey this is a new round of injustice for innocent people.' Just, 'I am scared of terrorists.' I haven't spoken to her since hearing that, and I have no idea what I'll even say if we bump into each other, which happens sometimes.

There are a lot of people who will quietly look the other way if something *really* bad happens here on a larger scale than usual. They won't all be deplorables. They won't all be white. They won't even all be Republicans. A lot of people will simply refuse to believe it's happening at all, and a lot of people will buy the hype that 'extreme measures are necessary' or whatever the hell these lying fascist fucks sell them. A lot of people will keep their heads down in the hope they're not next.

... and sorry, I know I'm not helping. This has all been bothering me quite a lot. I don't think we're there yet, not this year, but I don't personally feel discourse is getting less scary.
posted by mordax at 4:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [61 favorites]

> "It varies by state and would take a constitutional amendment to change at the federal level, I think."

I personally think "the right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude" should count for ex-prisoners, but ~150 years of established precedent disagrees with me.
posted by kyrademon at 4:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

I dunno. When being on "the wrong side of the law" means you and your family die too?

Disclaimer: 3 + glasses of wine. I'm for the most part a pacifist.

Not everyone is in a place to come out against things they feel are unjust. Family, friends, economic and social pressures - I get it.

That said, I think that if you see something and you know in your soul it's wrong, you can either a) do something or b) rationalize why you didn't.

God willing, the creek don't rise and enough liberals vote, you and I won't have to revisit that choice for another four to eight years.
posted by Mooski at 4:21 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

he argues that the US military would refuse to commit genocide - when it was the US military that committed genocide against Native Americans, and which rounded up and confined Japanese Americans in WW2

The main roadblock I can see isn't so much the principle of the thing, but the fact that a fairly high proportion of people who serve in the military are, in fact, the very people the military would be committing genocide against in this scenario. I suppose there's a risk of zeroing in one particular population that is a very small minority of Americans, and I think we should all be vigilant about Islamophobia in particular.

But the general "not straight white American-born gentile guys" population that white-supremacists aim to target? Hahalol tell that to the many such people who form the backbone of our military. The US military is just too diverse for it to be easily flipped to a white nationalist death squad.
posted by Sara C. at 4:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Study Confirms Network Evening Newscasts Have Abandoned Policy Coverage For 2016 Campaign

Walking away from a long-standing tradition of covering issues and presidential policies during campaign season, the network evening newscasts have all but abandoned that type of reporting this year, according to recent tabulations from Tyndall Report, which for decades has tracked the flagship nightly news programs. [...]

And here’s how that kind of in-depth coverage breaks down, year to date, by network:
ABC: 8 minutes, all of which covered terrorism.
NBC: 8 minutes for terrorism, LBGT issues, and foreign policy.
CBS: 16 minutes for foreign policy, terrorism, immigration, policing, and the Environmental Protection Agency. [...]

These numbers are staggering in terms of the complete retreat they represent from issues-orientated campaign coverage. Just eight years ago, the last time both parties nominated new candidates for the White House, the network newscasts devoted 220 minutes to issues coverage, compared to only 32 minutes so far this year. (CBS Evening News went from 119 minutes of issues coverage in 2008 to 16 this year.)

Note that during the Republican primary season alone, the networks spent 333 minutes focusing on Donald Trump. Yet for all of 2016, they have set aside just one-tenth of that for issue reporting.

And look at this: Combined, the three network newscasts have slotted 100 minutes so far this year for reporting on Hillary Clinton’s emails while she served as secretary of state, but just 32 minutes for all issues coverage. (NBC’s Nightly News has spent 31 minutes on the emails this year; just eight minutes on issues.)

posted by tonycpsu at 4:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [70 favorites]

The Wall Street Journal has a long and very chunky deep dive into FBI/Justice Dept. politics behind Comey's recent announcement. Some highlights:

- there are 650,000 emails on Wiener's laptop, many from Huma Abedin's accounts and stretching back years.

- the big battle is over an investigation of the Clinton Foundation. NYC FBI is bull-dogging it, higher ups (DOJ, FBI and "career public integrity prosecutors") don't see any substantial evidence that justifies pursuing it. Comey and Andrew McCabe are caught in the middle.

- the NYC office wanted more aggressive investigative tools on the Clinton Foundation case including subpoenas, witness interrogation, etc. This was turned down by DOJ and FBI higher ups, but they are proceeding using tactics they already had approval for. The recent pressure on the Clinton emails -- including threatened leaks -- appears to be payback for refusal to allow more aggressive investigation on the Clinton Foundation.

- the emails in question were sent from Hillary's private email server, but we've read they may not be from Hillary. How does that work? Because Huma Abedin had her own account on that server. So the emails may be entirely Abedin's personal or work emails, or some mix.
posted by msalt at 4:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

I gave $100 to ActBlue last night in support of Douglas Smith, who is running against Teabagger Justin Amash in Michigan's 3rd Congessional District. Now, given the demographics around here, i might just as well have rolled it up and smoked it, but goddammit nothing is ever gonna change until we get these fucking Republicans flushed out of Congress. The DeVos Mafia can go suck it.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 4:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

maybe there's real evidence linking Trump and Russia somewhere in the FBI. But more likely than not this was just Harry Reid pulling a reverse Comey. Now there's some competing innuendo floating around the media bubble. And Reid is retiring so he doesn't care.
posted by Glibpaxman at 4:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

I feel like most people are against genocide but are more against having to take action that might inconvenience them slightly. Like if it's a difference between saving 10k Syrian refuges but two might move somewhere near them, well, send them back to Syria and hope they sort things out and don't tell if anything bad happens to them.
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Count me in the group that believes it can happen here. The republicans have been flirting with fascist ideas for a while, and especially nativist bigoted fascism where the only legitimate leaders are ones who are white and definitely not ones with "funny" names like Obama. Trump is just a symptom. Large numbers of Americans have been fine with their elected officials saying Obama is a secret Muslim or that Muslims are terrorists or any number of bigoted things too long to type on by phone. Even here in supposedly liberal Seattle a local Democratic leader felt okay saying maybe we should ship the homeless to an island. She was ousted from her leadership role within a week but no doubt many were quietly nodding.

So it can happen here. We're not immune.
posted by R343L at 4:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

The Wall Street Journal has a long and very chunky deep dive into FBI/Justice Dept. politics behind Comey's recent announcement.

Rogue FBI agents pursuing their own political agenda doesn't seem like it's good for anyone.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:25 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

After posting, what Joey Michaels said. Listen to the rhetoric between Trump and Clinton about how we screen refugees. Even Clinton feels she has to carefully make clear that they are carefully screened because admitting that maybe it's worth letting a few criminals or terrorists in to save thousands of lives is just not politically feasible. It's ugly to me but I don't ding her for it because a thing least Clinton would advocate for refugees to be let in.
posted by R343L at 4:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Maybe Harry Reid will get FBI director under Hillary.
posted by humanfont at 4:34 PM on October 30, 2016

Rogue FBI agents pursuing their own political agenda doesn't seem like it's good for anyone.

On the whole I think I agree. But what if it were ten years ago and some New York agents thought there were some fishy Halliburton links and the orders came down to drop the matter? There's a very powerful narrative in all of us about a corrupt central authority and the rogue truth-seeker it's trying to silence. There is certainly no shortage of movies built around that plot.
posted by Slothrup at 4:36 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Well I mean the reality is that I think any legit country on planet earth in 2016 is probably screening refugees because most countries don't have wide open borders that allow just anyone no matter what, no questions asked.

I'm perfectly comfortable with the idea that there are screenings in place to make sure that refugees are who they say they are, aren't dangerous criminals, are actually refugees, etc. I'd probably fall on the more lax end of the spectrum as a humanitarian type who thinks the US specifically has a mandate to help the tired, the poor, the huddled masses, etc. But I agree that it would be bad optics for Clinton to oppose stringent screening measures or to let Republicans score points by implying that just anyone can come to America if they make sad puppy dog eyes.

While it would be interesting to live in an alternate universe where Americans wanted open borders, for known terrorists to be able to fly on planes and buy weapons freely, etc. that's just not the America that we actually live in and I think it's OK to acknowledge that.
posted by Sara C. at 4:36 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

So this isn't germane to the current thread, but in a past thread I was commenting on the willingness of people to believe anything they see stated on video. I have been having a conversation with a friend about the reliability and accuracy of memory (ala the Mandela Effect) and it's come back around to politics.

With the increasing fracturing of media and partisan information sources, we've reached a time when the only thing we can really accept as truth is video showing something. Here is a thing that happened, and it's objective truth. Which is why the Billy Bush video had such an effect even when so many people had said "This is who Trump is." And why all the accusations by women since then haven't seemed to have as much effect on the nation's opinions and psyche.

The converse is that misleading, badly edited, or downright faked video is going to fool a lot of people and be very persuasive because we are now conditioned to believe this form of proof. As a funny example, do y'all remember that Clinton and Ken Boone dancing video from Ellen? I showed it to my husband and he thought the dancing was real at first, despite the obviously Pasted On Head-ness of the digital manipulation. I think especially non-tech oriented people tend to instinctively trust video.

Which is pretty scary, actually. The idea that we may be entering an era without an objective truth that everyone will accept. That potentially NO documentary evidence will be enough to convince people. We've already reached that point with scientific evidence, obviously. If climate change isn't something that you can literally point to in your hand and say "look, there it is!" someone is always going to make the argument that what you think you proved isn't actually true.

So how do we push back against this? How do we agree on objective reality when all anyone has to say is "That's not true" to create doubt in people's minds. (I've seen this in facebook arguments when someone says some piece of what we would accept as fact and someone just says "that's not true because xyz that I got from Reddit" and usually people are just too tired to argue.)
posted by threeturtles at 4:36 PM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

chris24: In addition to Clinton hitting Phoenix on Wednesday, Kaine is now going to Tucson. They clearly want AZ bad and think they have a chance.

I sincerely hope they're right. I am heartened every time I go out canvassing by the amount of Clinton support I encounter.

On a downballot note, on my way to a theatre workshop today I saw my very first McCain sign. It says a lot about me and my social circles that I stopped dead in my tracks for a moment in befuddlement, wondering, "Why do they have a sign from 2008?"
Then I remembered the Senate thing. He's probably going to win, but there's a reason I see loads of Kirkpatrick signs and none for McCain (until now): she needs the name recognition, he doesn't.

zachlipton: If we're going to disenfranchise felons at all, it is just plain wrong to not restore voting right automatically upon release.

When I was doing voter registration, I can't tell you how many people turned me away not because they weren't interested in registering or already in the rolls, but because they were convicted felons. First, it made me angry that voting rights aren't restored once someone has served their time (or been released early for whatever reason). Second, encountering that many felons made it clear that our justice system is fucked up; I'm guessing a considerable number of those felony convictions were drug-related. Are you surprised if I point out that most of said felons were nonwhite? I wasn't. Just saddened.
posted by Superplin at 4:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [37 favorites]

Doesn't the United States have one of the more restrictive immigration policies in the world? And didn't congress also slam the door in the face of most refugees from the Middle East a little over a year ago?
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 4:39 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Yeah, actually, the treatment of the Syrian refugees is to me a sign that it is very, very hard for people to learn from history no matter how much they learn about history. The US systematically refused to help Jewish people during WWII. The sainted President Roosevelt did almost nothing and that only under pressure, when people he knew begged him in person to take action. Almost no one worldwide took in Jewish refugees on a large scale - so many people who could have easily been saved.

When I was growing up it was all Anne Frank and Schindler's List and so on, and you would like to believe that people would think "it was a mistake to turn away refugees then and we are ashamed of that; now we can act differently". But that's not what we've done.

To me we ought to be letting people come here - bringing them here! - when they're displaced and in danger, regardless of if there's economic consequences or social consequences, and I find it appalling that people don't get that. Economic and social challenges are real things, but they don't add up against someone's life. If we had done that in the thirties and forties at any large scale, the world could look really different.
posted by Frowner at 4:42 PM on October 30, 2016 [86 favorites]

Regardless of the email thing, or the Russia thing, Comey needs to go for the simple fact that he doesn't have enough respect from or control over his agents to prevent them from going rogue like this.
posted by chris24 at 4:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

threeturtles: despite the obviously Pasted On Head-ness of the digital manipulation

Oh, how I love an old-school fandom reference! Those were heady days, indeed. So to speak.
posted by Superplin at 4:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

I missed the edit window to add "in many states", so forgive me, kind folk.

Just as well, because that's exactly the kind of edit you should not make. It looks to later readers like the people replying to you were being obtuse or pedantic.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:44 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

So Clinton Foundation and Trump Foundation are both in NYC and the one NYC FBI is hot to trot about is Clinton? Yeah, sounds legit.

At this point, I seriously don't even care about minor wheel greasing that career politicians the world over engage in--if we want, we can have that national conversation about the level of integrity we expect out of our leaders and how we can ensure that politicians who go to Washington honest remain so through all the pressures put on them to raise money and peddle influence (i.e. how bout a little campaign finance reform?) AFTER we ensure that there is even a nation to converse with on this topic. This shit is some small ass potatoes. Not nothing, but not "Hey, you know what'd be awesome? Genocide at home and nuclear conflicts abroad!"
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:45 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

Doesn't the United States have one of the more restrictive immigration policies in the world?

Depends on your definition. We traditionally admit a lot (though things have gotten weird.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:46 PM on October 30, 2016

Doesn't the United States have one of the more restrictive immigration policies in the world?

What? No, it has one of the most liberal immigration policies in the world! Where do you get the idea it's one of the most restrictive?

Don't get me wrong; by many accounts actually dealing with the immigration services is like pulling teeth. But the policies themselves are not restrictive. We allow the most legal immigrants of any nation on earth! Weird.
posted by Justinian at 4:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

We allow the most legal immigrants of any nation on earth!

In 2005, the United States per capita ranked 34th out of 179 world nations in the number of immigrants allowed into the country.

More stats here. The USA is 18th out of 34 OECD countries.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

1. The felony distinction is medieval shit that the English criminal justice system finally abandoned decades ago.

2. The Dem strategy here is clearly "we are under bullshitty attack by bullshitty actors from all sides." It's about motivating the base to get out and bring their friends, not about converting any more undecideds, so that's how Team Clinton sees the state of the race right now. Reid's working within that strategy in his typically robust way.
posted by holgate at 4:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

It's a complicated answer because of the multiple regimes and per-regime caps, but here are some numbers

https://www.us-immigration.com/how-many-immigration-applications-filed-each-year/
posted by tsuipen at 4:54 PM on October 30, 2016

Clicky version of tsuipen's link.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:57 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Don't have a WSJ account, but that looks like an interesting story.

I'm going to assume it's just the reporting and that actual judges who have to approve subpoenas think of stuff like this, but... Don't you need an actual reason to suspect there is evidence of some specific wrongdoing to start going through people's shit? I mean, "I got nothing, let me look in your email just in case I see something good" doesn't really work, right?

And what's the privacy of everything not related? If one of the emails shows that Abedin once jaywalked, is that on the news tomorrow?
posted by ctmf at 4:58 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

You don't need an account if you click through from Google.
Google link to WSJ article
posted by ryanrs at 5:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

In 2005, the United States per capita ranked 34th out of 179 world nations in the number of immigrants allowed into the country.

"Most immigrants" and "34th in per capita immigrants" are not exclusive facts?
posted by Justinian at 5:10 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Send snacks to the local campaign office. Or nice coffee and soda. Or order them some pizza. Call them up, say "do you need snacks? if so, what snacks?"

Worth noting that it may be difficult--or nigh-impossible--to successfully call your local field office. You might well be better off heading down there to ask in person.
posted by dersins at 5:11 PM on October 30, 2016

> Harry Reid's claws are out

Yeah, except he doesn't have any right now... and he's just too polite to say boy, I'd like to take you to the alley behind the Casino/Gym and teach you some manners...
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 5:13 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

> "Most immigrants" and "34th in per capita immigrants" are not exclusive facts?

well, no, but the latter deflates the emotional impact of the former somewhat, doesn't it?
posted by andrewcooke at 5:13 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

This. Cannot. Be. Happening. [WaPo satire]
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:14 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Not really, in my opinion. Particularly when talking about whether immigration policy is among the most restrictive in the world

I mean, can we at least agree that when you're 1st in total immigrants and 34th in per capita immigrants the idea that you have among the world's most restrictive policies is patently false? That way we don't derail by arguing about what "most liberal" means.
posted by Justinian at 5:16 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

and he's just too polite to say boy, I'd like to take you to the alley behind the Casino/Gym and teach you some manners...

Hah, I dunno about that. Reid's a former prize fighter, and he knows how to not mince words.
posted by dis_integration at 5:16 PM on October 30, 2016

(In my defense, I was also rage typing on an airplane. Grrr.)

Against the flying of the day?

Heh. see cause
posted by petebest at 5:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

David Ploufe tells everyone not to panic vote or volunteer don't fret. [twitter]
posted by humanfont at 5:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

give me some good reasons to believe that our "sure thing" election isn't now a toss-up or worse?

Watching Democrats and Republicans react to the emails has been really, really bizarre.

Outside of the crazy pockets, there are no Republicans who are saying this will let Trump win. But so many Dems are getting freaked out by it, I don't understand.

Clinton has this. The only thing that might be changed is the margin she wins by. It's okay not to be afraid at this point!
posted by corb at 5:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

Clinton has this. The only thing that might be changed is the margin she wins by. It's okay not to be afraid at this point!

Well, that and the down-ticket races. We really, really need to take back the Senate.
posted by Surely This at 5:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

I'm going to panic and vote! Win win! Except for me, I guess.

This has been the least productive month of my life. Including when I had mono, probably.
posted by Justinian at 5:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [39 favorites]

@Metlandia
So a rogue faction of the FBI is scrambling to find something incriminating on HRC days before the election. Banana. Republic.
posted by chris24 at 5:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

I've decided my phrase for the next 8 days is "I'm not entertainIng your delusions. " to anyone this statement may be applicable to.

I'm so so so done.
posted by AlexiaSky at 5:26 PM on October 30, 2016 [46 favorites]

FBI gotta get in that OT before the shutdown.
posted by ctmf at 5:26 PM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

On the one hand, I think I'm going to be too busy until next Tuesday to panic. On the other hand, I did have a nightmare last night where I was attacked by a pack of mangy squirrels, so maybe I'm just internalizing my panic.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

Trump gives thanks to Weiner

"We never thought we were going to say 'thank you' to Anthony Weiner," Trump joked with his audience at one of conservative casino magnate Sheldon Adelson's Venetian Hotel ballrooms.

A lone voice in the crowd started a short-lived "Weiner" chant, but few added their voices to his cause.
posted by petebest at 5:31 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

On the whole I think I agree. But what if it were ten years ago and some New York agents thought there were some fishy Halliburton links and the orders came down to drop the matter? There's a very powerful narrative in all of us about a corrupt central authority and the rogue truth-seeker it's trying to silence. There is certainly no shortage of movies built around that plot.

There are also movies about superheroes, magic and dragons.

Can you recall a single recent actual instance where a rogue federal agent successfully independently pursued justice against their bosses wishes and actually delivered it ?
posted by srboisvert at 5:36 PM on October 30, 2016

The sticker thing befuddles non-unitedstatesian me.
I mean — it's a nice bonus thing, but it's not really all that important, isn't it?

It's an admitted "childish" fuck you from some of the POC I've spoken to who lived through being actively denied the right to vote. And don't often want to vote early because voting on the day is a party.

Voted early at my library, only 40 min from exit car to enter car @6:30 after work.
posted by tilde at 5:41 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

But so many Dems are getting freaked out by it, I don't understand.

Two wins for Dubya in a row when we thought we had it in the bag have us a little spooked.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [55 favorites]

Yeah chalk up our nerves to Bush and also to the fact that Trump should never have gotten this far. So we're not sure we can relax.
posted by emjaybee at 5:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [59 favorites]

Link to Senior Congressional Aide Says Chaffetz Tweeted Comey Letter Before Democrats Even Saw It

FBI Director James Comey’s recent letter to Congress about the Hillary Clinton email investigation is looking more and more like a political dirty trick. Earlier this evening, we learned that the FBI didn't have a warrant to read the emails discovered on Anthony Weiner’s computer, and therefore Comey doesn’t know if they are even significant to the Clinton investigation.

Now, Shareblue reports that Comey may have provided early access to his innuendo-filled letter to Republican Congressman Jason Chaffetz, enabling him to tweet about it and frame the media narrative before Democratic members of Congress even received copies of the letter.

Here is the statement by a senior Democratic congressional aide (emphasis in original):

"Democratic Ranking Members on the relevant committees didn’t receive Comey’s letter until after the Republican Chairmen. In fact, the Democratic Ranking Members didn’t receive it until after the the Chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Jason Chaffetz, tweeted it out and made it public."

Unless Comey became FBI Director whilst being a complete dope, it sounds like he deliberately leaked a fetid nothingburger to Chaffetz early for the impact it would have on the election coverage.

It's not that she won't win, it's that every downticket vote affected by this is deliberately partisan and therefore illegal. Or so I've read.

They're not venerating Reagan anymore - they're venerating Nixon.

Gross.
posted by petebest at 5:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [35 favorites]

It's okay not to be afraid at this point!

"it is our nature."

(Another snippet from Keepin' It 1600 mentioned how the young Obama '08 campaign people met up with some McCain campaign people after the election, and the McCainers said they were taking lengthy cig and beer breaks outside campaign HQ from September onwards because they knew they were beaten. Different kind of election, of course.)
posted by holgate at 5:52 PM on October 30, 2016

And Brexit. Don't forget Brexit.
posted by Sara C. at 5:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Clinton has this. The only thing that might be changed is the margin she wins by. It's okay not to be afraid at this point!

Well, that and the down-ticket races. We really, really need to take back the Senate.

The Senate is the difference between a Clinton administration that limps along relatively status quo, weathering Republican obstruction as Obama has the past six years, but still managing to achieve some things here and there and keep the government functioning relatively normally, and at least staff the judiciary; and a Clinton presidency that's DOA, 4 years without a 9th justice, multiple and lengthy government shutdowns, almost certain impeachment, all aided by the Clinton rules media. Some of it would be baked in anyway, but 4 years of a Republican congress means literally nothing can get done. Nothing.

And the worst case is still actual fascism. So. Let's never relax.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [62 favorites]

So Trump today in Colorado told people to vote twice "to make sure."

"Trump kicked off his rally here on Sunday by encouraging his supporters to "make sure" their ballots are properly counted, saying that he is a "skeptical person" when it comes to the state's largely vote-by-mail process. He then encouraged his supporters to get a "new ballot" in person at a local polling location.

"They'll give you a ballot, a new ballot. They'll void your old ballot, they will give you a new ballot. And you can go out and make sure it gets in," Trump said."
posted by chris24 at 5:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Different kind of election, of course.

Even *with* Palin on the ticket it seems like a million years ago compared to this fiery turdnado.
posted by petebest at 5:56 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

"Trump kicked off his rally here on Sunday by encouraging his supporters to "make sure" their ballots are properly counted, saying that he is a "skeptical person" when it comes to the state's largely vote-by-mail process.

YES GOOD IDEA TRUMP SUPPORTERS DO NOT VOTE EARLY AND RISK A CROOKARY HILLARTON ELECTION JUST STAY HOME AND KEEP YOUR VOTE PRISTINE
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:56 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

Comey has a rogue field office in NYC and is apparently in Chaffetz pocket.

If Comey is leaking information that could impact the campaign but suppressing information about Trump's links to Putin then things are going to go badly for him.

Regardless this is a last ditch effort and unlikely to impact the result. Clinton has 300 pretty much locked down.
posted by vuron at 5:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

They'll void your old ballot, they will give you a new ballot.

How would getting a new ballot guarantee one's vote gets for realz counted, any more than casting only one, or seven or a hundred for that matter? This is gonna cause a shitstorm if people listen to him and do this en masse.
posted by Rykey at 6:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

The Senate is the difference between a Clinton administration that limps along relatively status quo

And that's the best case scenario.

A medium-case scenario would be that we dwindle down to 4 or 5 SCOTUS justices because the Republicans refuse to appoint anyone Clinton nominates, seeing her as an eight-year lame duck.

A less-OK case scenario would probably be a President constantly besieged by impeachment attempts in addition to the SCOTUS thing.

I refuse to contemplate a worst-case scenario, even if Trump isn't elected. We need the Senate in order to restore meaningful democracy to this country and avoid a constitutional crisis.
posted by Sara C. at 6:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Can we get a warrant for Comey's emails? Might be something in there.
posted by ctmf at 6:02 PM on October 30, 2016 [34 favorites]

In what I guess is the converse of the stereotypical case, or something like that, when I was canvassing yesterday I stopped at the house of an elderly couple.. the guy was a long-time Democrat and regaled me with story after story until his wife told him it was time for him to have his dinner. Then, as I was leaving, she whispered to me that she is a registered Republican but voted absentee for Clinton. (Presumably the subterfuge was because she didn't want him to know?)
posted by XMLicious at 6:04 PM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

So Trump today in Colorado told people to vote twice "to make sure."

People are talking about this as Trump encouraging people to commit voter fraud, but that isn't how I read it. I think that, in his own word-salady way, he was suggesting that people vote in person, rather than by mail. Colorado apparently has a system where they mail everyone a ballot, but you can choose to take it to a polling place and vote there if you don't want to mail it in. He thinks that ballots are likely to get lost (or "lost") in the mail, and his supporters should vote in person. And I cannot stress enough what a stupid, stupid, stupid thing that was to say. It is probably true that a few ballots get lost in the mail, but it is more than made up for by the fact that people are more likely to vote by mail than to make it to the polling place. Telling people not to vote by mail is like flushing votes down the toilet. Also, some of his supporters are going to take it as a suggestion that they vote twice, because some of his supporters are not the brightest. And they do keep track of mail-in ballots, and they will be arrested. Just say no to voter fraud, folks.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:08 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

They'll give you a ballot, a new ballot. They'll void your old ballot, they will give you a new ballot. And you can go out and make sure it gets in," Trump said.

In some places, that's how it works. I'm not sure about Colorado, where he was speaking.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:10 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

So Trump today in Colorado told people to vote twice "to make sure."

Does Colorado have laws against encouraging people to commit voter fraud? I'd like to put them to the test. (That's Bannon at work, obv. Equal parts fascist and troll, nazipepe made flesh.)

This is gonna cause a shitstorm if people listen to him and do this en masse.

It's equal parts penetration-test and DDOS on the democratic process: scan all the ports, post all the SQL injection strings, see what happens. At the worst, it'll put a human system designed to cope (just about) with normal election practices to the test.
posted by holgate at 6:10 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Metafilter: Let's never relax.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:18 PM on October 30, 2016 [28 favorites]

They definitely keep track of who has already voted. I really don't think it's possible to vote twice without getting caught. There are probably ways that people could get away with committing voter fraud: you could sign up for an absentee ballot for someone in your family who you knew wasn't going to vote and then swipe it and send it in, for instance. But voting twice isn't one of them.

My hunch is that people sometimes forget they've already voted and try to do it, and the election people turn them away rather than calling the cops. But I'd be curious to know, especially in places with a lot of early voting and a long early voting period.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

How would getting a new ballot guarantee one's vote gets for realz counted, any more than casting only one, or seven or a hundred for that matter? This is gonna cause a shitstorm if people listen to him and do this en masse.

It doesn't. What it does do is slow things down, lengthen lines and send people home who can't wait hours to vote.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Holy shit. I mean holy shit.

@WalshFreedom
"Look, I think Comey should have said prosecute her back in July.

But what he just did 11 days b4 the election is wrong & unfair to Hillary."
posted by chris24 at 6:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [21 favorites]

I got a survey call two days after I voted, my ballot was already in and tallied. There is no way anyone is voting twice. Nope. The asked for my birth date on the ballot. Not voting twice.
posted by Oyéah at 6:20 PM on October 30, 2016

I still don't get it, because she functioned as the last four Secretaries of State did. Why Hillary prosecuted and not the other three?
posted by Oyéah at 6:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Shouldn't we be a little more breathless about this?

it has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government

It seems like a big deal that a sitting senator accused the director of the FBI of sitting on information about the Republican nominee coordinating with the Russian government.
posted by diogenes at 6:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [55 favorites]

What it does do is slow things down, lengthen lines and send people home who can't wait hours to vote.

Yeah, except that everyone in Colorado is automatically signed up to vote by mail, and the Democrats are telling people to go ahead and mail in those mail-in ballots. Do it now! Make a party of it! Have your daughters accompany you to the mailbox! So the lines are going to be full of dumb-ass Trump supporters, because Clinton supporters will have dropped their ballots in the mail a week before election day.

This isn't some grand conspiracy. This is Trump being a real dummy.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Harry Reid says lots of stuff, diogenes. Sometimes it's even true. But not always.
posted by Justinian at 6:25 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

I still don't get it, because she functioned as the last four Secretaries of State did. Why Hillary prosecuted and not the other three?

Well, IOKIYAR, but no, she was being a bit different and demanding something like modern (at the time) levels of communication, which the NSA couldn't or wouldn't provide. So she rolled her own.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:26 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Harry Reid says lots of stuff, diogenes. Sometimes it's even true. But not always.

Sure, but what was his most famous insinuation before this? Something about Romney's tax returns, right? This seems like it's in a different category.
posted by diogenes at 6:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

So she rolled her own.

Which is different to Rice and Powell only in that they used commercial services like Hotmail and Yahoo instead of government email, rather than a private server instead of government email. But the RNC set up a private server for most of the Bush administration, so even the private server part isn't unprecedented.
posted by chris24 at 6:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

She wasn't being "a bit different". Powell and Rice used a private server as well. The difference is that theirs was owned by the RNC, whereas Clinton's was personal and stored in her home.

A party-owned server is not any more condoned than Clinton's personal server, and in a sense it could be more nefarious.
posted by Sara C. at 6:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [17 favorites]

Yeah Reid called Comeys bluff. Either Comey has to say the FBI doesn't comment on ongoing investigations which more or less confirms there is a FBI investigation of Trump or Comey has to share the dirt in order to look less partisan.

And Reid wouldn't comment publically if he couldn't back up his claims.
posted by vuron at 6:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

And Reid wouldn't comment publically if he couldn't back up his claims.

Like when he claimed he knew that Romney paid 0% in federal income tax? Which turned out to be untrue.

Of course he was only off by 4 years... maybe he has a scrying pool of some sort but the timeline was hazy.
posted by Justinian at 6:32 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

A party-owned server is not any more condoned than Clinton's personal server, and in a sense it could be more nefarious.

It should be more frowned upon. The only thing better about having the RNC run the server is they hopefully have a few more IT people who know how to secure the thing than are usually found in the Clinton home. But it's not like the RNC knows the first thing about technology, so the thing was probably wide open anyway.
posted by hoyland at 6:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Like when he claimed he knew that Romney paid 0% in federal income tax? Which turned out to be untrue.

In that case, he didn't care if it was true. He said it to force Romney's hand, and it worked. He's probably doing something similar here.
posted by diogenes at 6:35 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Two wins for Dubya in a row when we thought we had it in the bag have us a little spooked.

Yeah. The election of 2000 and the long time we waited for the Florida fiasco to be resolved (only to the have SCOTUS step in and pretend they were above it all) was awful, but we dealt with it. Lots of righteous anger and enough acceptance for me and lots of folks to carry on despite our strong feelings that something really really unfair, unjust happened.

Post-2004 was a different story, at least for me. GWB's reelection changed something in me. I had no rage or acceptance or grand, tragic feeling of injustice. That election made me not trust my fellow citizens. It's not like I had previously thought that we were a country of rational, moral, objective people. But I had truly believed, especially after the stolen election of 2000, that collectively we would not reelect someone who had done such an obviously horrid job as President. I still am not over the feeling of numbness and shock that we as a nation actively chose to reward with another term an administration that took us into an unnecessary, unpaid-for war, that tortured, that turned its back on science, that did nothing to address climate change. And so many other things. It was apparent back in 2004 that GWB was possibly the worst Pres ever, but "Swift Boat" and "flip flopper" worked on enough people.

And the bullshit is still working. Will it work on enough people this time? The critical-thinking part of my brain still thinks Hillary's got it. The part of my brain that replays GWB's presidency on an endless horror loop wants to go throw up. And DJT has made the bullshit that is being sold that much more flagrant and unbelievable and scary. I don't trust enough people to reject it. I'll rest on 9 November.
posted by chaoticgood at 6:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [71 favorites]

diogenes: That's what I think too. He doesn't particularly care if its true or not, he is playing to the crowd and applying pressure to Comey.
posted by Justinian at 6:38 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

When asked if he regretted saying that Romney paid no tax on the Senate floor, Reid responded, "I don't regret that at all. Romney didn't win, did he?" Reid has been in gives no fucks mode since he lost the majority.
posted by xyzzy at 6:38 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

Which is different to Rice and Powell only in that they used commercial services like Hotmail and Yahoo instead of government email

Not instead of, but that's essentially what's being leveled against Human (who I don't understand why is subjected to any investigation here.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:39 PM on October 30, 2016

In this case he spoke specifically about briefings implicating collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. Briefings that Comey has been a part of.

Reid is clearly transferring the heart of the story to Comey and Reid and Trump.

That is going to add a lot of grist to the cable news mill
posted by vuron at 6:40 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

You know the 650,000 emails on the computer? That sounds so bogus. Who has that many emails on one laptop? If that were 10 years, that would be 65,000 emails per year, breaking that down, that is 5, 417 emails per month, over 10 years. Well OK. But 650,000 ? Is it possible those were pushed onto this computer, recently? Without even the owner of the computer knowing about it?

If a computer were taken over remotely by a virus and used for sending spam, maybe you could end up with that many? Or if Wiener or Abedin were sending spam, and not deleting bouncebacks? It seems like something they'd have an IT person do, on server hardware, though.
posted by XMLicious at 6:43 PM on October 30, 2016

Your reminder that this moment happened over a year ago. Ugh. Can we stop already.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

You know the 650,000 emails on the computer? That sounds so bogus. Who has that many emails on one laptop? If that were 10 years, that would be 65,000 emails per year, breaking that down, that is 5, 417 emails per month, over 10 years. Well OK. But 650,000 ?

That's about 180.5 emails per day. A few times what I receive in my professional and personal accounts, but less than ten times what I receive, and outside the realm of plausibility, especially for someone helping coordinate a really major operation like the State Department, and/or reviewing email received from citizens around the country on behalf of a public figure, and/or being essentially two people's email total because of the Abedin printing emails for Clinton thing?
posted by eviemath at 6:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

I am floored at the amount of time and money that has been spent investigating Clinton, and of course the foundation. Floored, but not surprised.

If there is a matching amount of investigation in the Trump foundation - which Fahrenthold has kindly provided to them already - I will .... also be floored. And surprised.
posted by Dashy at 6:44 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, what do the governor (D) and secretary of state (R) of Colorado now say about the integrity of their state's voting system? Something? Nothing?

You know the 650,000 emails on the computer? That sounds so bogus.

Yeah. Not even counting spam. On that note, I'm always gobsmacked by people who presumably use email -- e.g. the wikileaks fappers -- suffering ongoing cognitive dysfunction about "where the emails are located". They're not bloody ping pong balls. If you're using a big email provider -- Huma apparently has/had a Yahoo Mail account -- then they're "in your web browser". If they're cached copies of messages retrieved by IMAP in multiple backed-up .pst files, well, godknows.
posted by holgate at 6:44 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Apropos of nothing, the Cubs are winning.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

Well, I love the New York magazine election issue cover, but TTTCS.
posted by chris24 at 6:48 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Apropos of nothing, the Cubs are winning.

TTTCS! DO IT NOW
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:49 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

@EddyElfenbein
What are the odds Comey interrupts the game in the 7th?
posted by kingless at 6:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [18 favorites]

I'll rest on 9 November.

I won't. I'm going to spend the next four years hoping no one steps on a butterfly.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 6:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

You know the 650,000 emails on the computer? That sounds so bogus.

Having seen how some people manage email at Microsoft, I don't find this implausible at all. They join multiple high-volume internal mailing lists and setup rules to have the mail automatically moved to that folder. Then they don't ever bother to look at the contents.

(I find this practice mind-bogglingly pointless, and will unsubscribe from any list where less then 50% of the mails are of value to me. Even so, I definitely get more than 200 mails per work day.)
posted by Slothrup at 6:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

Here's an anecdote. Wasn't sure if I would share it. I've been married for twelve years. My wife finally decided to apply for citizenship because of the prospect of a Trump presidency. She's been here long enough that she didn't have to apply as my wife. So she went to the interview and passed all of civics portion but the interviewer decided she failed the personal part. She said the number of years married correctly, but faltered when asked if she was sure. She was also confused by what her job was before. Before what? She asked. Well , I wasn't there but the interviewer rejected her application. So no happy ending and no voting this year.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [31 favorites]

Oh, how I love an old-school fandom reference!

Squee! Someone noticed! I very nearly spelled it pastede but figured it would just cause confusion. (I am like Old Old School fandom from the days of listservs.)
posted by threeturtles at 6:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

If they're cached copies of messages retrieved by IMAP in multiple backed-up .pst files, well, godknows.

Depends on the mail client which is using IMAP to retrieve the email, but sometimes a .mail folder in the user's home directory, sometimes a .exchange folder. Usually it would be a "hidden" directory (click on "show hidden files" in the file manager program, or ls -a on linux or unix systems). The config file for the mail client would specify the directory that mail gets saved to. As I understand things. Not a computer professional.
posted by eviemath at 7:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

You know the 650,000 emails on the computer? That sounds so bogus.

Mostly "free cookies in the break room", "please remove me from this mail", and "don't reply-all asking to be removed from a mail"
posted by ckape at 7:04 PM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

You know the 650,000 emails on the computer? That sounds so bogus.

No, not at all. I keep all my email, and my archives have 68,000 messages for 2015, 54,000 messages for 2014, and so on, going back three decades. Only a small fraction of that is spam because the spam filters are elsewhere; some of the messages are computer systems related notifications and other non-content mail, and some is due to mailing lists. All told, though, I'm well into this ballpark and I'm a nobody, relatively speaking.

650,000 messages for ten years for a high-ranking person is completely plausible.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:09 PM on October 30, 2016 [21 favorites]

I hope those FBI guys are wearing gloves when they touch Weiner's keyboard. I'd probably double bag my hands.
posted by Justinian at 7:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

How would getting a new ballot guarantee one's vote gets for realz counted, any more than casting only one, or seven or a hundred for that matter?

I mean, Trump is ridiculous, but I also worry about mail in ballots. It'd be so damn easy for like Joe Postal Worker to toss ballots from the "wrong neighborhoods".
posted by corb at 7:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

I can track my mail-in ballot to see when it was received, and when it was counted.

But this is in a state where the government hasn't purposely fucked the election system, so ymmv.
posted by ryanrs at 7:15 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

I mean, Trump is ridiculous, but I also worry about mail in ballots. It'd be so damn easy for like Joe Postal Worker to toss ballots from the "wrong neighborhoods".

Yeah, I wonder how Oregon prevents against things like poll workers intentionally marking received ballots to indicate another candidate (like what happened in Florida this week).

Otherwise, I'm pro-vote-by-mail, all the way.
posted by longdaysjourney at 7:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

So I've just realized that the big festival-thing I'm currently working to get ready to vend at is the weekend after Election Day. And the crowd will probably be about evenly split liberal-conservative. And there is typically a lot of drinking. And now I'm nervous.

I know a lot of people in this group of hundreds, and I like them a lot, but it is a distinctly less liberal and older, more conservative crowd than I am used to. There are a lot of rugged individualist Libertarian types in the crowd. The kind of people who would never have a problem with a gay couple but have strong opinions about government and taxation. And it's TEXAS.

And that's usually fine for me. There are a few people in that group who I've had to remove from my FB feed because of their political postings and my inability to shoot my mouth off when I see something. But now the idea that there may be some people angry about the results of the election who get drunk and SOMETHING happens is now not seeming impossible.

I don't want to be afraid of the people around me, but THIS FUCKING ELECTION.
posted by threeturtles at 7:18 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Maybe Joe Walsh and other Republicans are starting to wake up to the fact that if the FBI Directors actions are allowed to set a precedent then that puts them all in danger in the future.
posted by humanfont at 7:18 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

It'd be so damn easy for like Joe Postal Worker to toss ballots from the "wrong neighborhoods".

It really wouldn't, though, at least not in any statistically significant manner. "Joe Postal Worker" doesn't work alone, and where would s/he toss them, that they wouldn't be found? This fear is as every bit as unfounded as that of the mythical "voter fraud" driving Republican state legislatures to attempt to disenfranchise people through voter ID laws.
posted by dersins at 7:19 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Yeah, my husband also was going to leave some races blank because he hated both candidates, and it twitched me out, because what's to stop someone just filling that line in?
posted by corb at 7:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Maybe Joe Walsh and other Republicans are starting to wake up to the fact that if the FBI Directors actions are allowed to set a precedent then that puts them all in danger in the future.

Eh. Their screaming to the base seems to get turbo charged if it's actual gov't actors.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:22 PM on October 30, 2016

... where the emails are located ...

Speaking as someone who can reasonably be called a computer professional, I feel compelled to say that the location of saved email messages on a computer is not a simple matter. It depends very much on the mail program used by the person, the (presumably remote) mail server, the operating system, and other details. Not everyone reads email from their web browser, for example. Different desktop mail programs store their stuff in different places and different formats. Yes, it can be found eventually, but OTOH it's not a simple matter of opening a laptop and looking for an icon named "Mail"....
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:23 PM on October 30, 2016

Clinton had a private server because trying to use the State Department email server away from your desktop is more or less impossible. The "approved" methodology for accessing her email away from her desktop is logging onto a secure workstation in a consulate. No VPN, No secure blackberry, dedicated connections.

It's basically an untenable scenario for an active Secretary of State and is more or less the norm in any organization where officious security experts routinely prevent people from getting their work done.

There should be tight security around extremely secret information but that can be handled by giving officials multiple logins with differing access permissions and access restrictions. Regular SoS emails go to one account. Classified to another, etc. Secret and Top Secret probably shouldn't be emailed anyway.
posted by vuron at 7:26 PM on October 30, 2016 [29 favorites]

" It'd be so damn easy for like Joe Postal Worker to toss ballots from the "wrong neighborhoods"."

Except that it's a federal offense with up to 5 years and $250,000 in finesper instance, mail is sorted on an open floor in full view of all employees, and post offices are constantly audited not just by the postmaster but by the postal inspection service, including via post office observation rooms that are inaccessible to employees, have a separate entrance, and postal workers never know if they're occupied.

So, yeah, if a postal worker thinks he can manage to throw out say 20 ballots that won't be detected in a swing county in a swing state that can swing the election with those 20 ballots, and not get found out during the recount and litigation and investigations afterwards, and is willing to risk 100 years in federal prison on the off-chance he can steal 20 ballots voting for his hated candidate and manage to swing the election, sure, plausible.

The scale of targeted mail theft that would be required to swing a state makes this simply implausible -- you'd be seen and caught during the process because mail is closely monitored, or it would be obvious afterwards by the thousands of missing ballots and the way precincts didn't match up with polling, prior election returns, registrations, or peer precincts.

(Total internal mail theft convictions, btw, are fewer than 500 nationwide per year, and the USPS is pretty serious about prosecutions. Most of it is electronics, prescriptions, or gift cards in labeled packages. Most of it is actually surprisingly low-value, because it's hard to get away with and the perps hope to fly under the radar.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:31 PM on October 30, 2016 [118 favorites]

And you can track your ballots online, right? So a couple calls about missing ballots from one area, and I'd imagine it's a wrap for that mail carrier.
posted by cashman at 7:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Also, deciding which ballots to throw out would involve either random selection or opening both the outer envelope that contains the voter identification information and the inner security envelope that contains the actual (anonymous) voted ballot.
posted by eviemath at 7:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Eyebrows McGee, how are you so consistently able to just sort of swoop into a conversation to provide incredibly interesting knowledge that I didn't even know I didn't know

you are like some sort of fascinating fact superhero
posted by DoctorFedora at 7:36 PM on October 30, 2016 [104 favorites]

every now and then they do turn up cases of mail carriers who dump mail rather than deliver it
posted by thelonius at 7:38 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

deciding which ballots to throw out would involve either random selection or opening both the outer envelope that contains the voter identification

In California there is only one envelope and the voter's name is printed on it. So you could lookup party affiliation and get good targeting without opening the envelope.

(but yeah, this is not feasible on a large scale for other reasons)
posted by ryanrs at 7:40 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

In California there is only one envelope and the voter's name is printed on it. So you could lookup party affiliation and get good targeting without opening the envelope.

I guess that would be printed on the outer envelope in the two-envelope system as well. I've never fully thought through the possibilities for committing election fraud via a plant in the postal service before, it would appear.
posted by eviemath at 7:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Here's a really comprehensive and interesting article from a former Oregon Secretary of State on voting by mail, research about it, fraud, etc.

"Mail-based voting systems today are far less risky than most polling place elections, precisely because they distribute ballots (and electoral risk) in such a decentralized way. To have any reasonable chance of success, an organized effort to defraud a mail-based system and its safeguards must involve hundreds (if not thousands) of separate acts, all of them individual felonies, that must both occur and go undetected to have any chance of success."

"every now and then they do turn up cases of mail carriers who dump mail rather than deliver it"

Yeah, but they tend to get caught because a whole sack of mail going missing is pretty noticeable. (When everyone on the block doesn't get their cable bill, it gets noticed.) And any given mail sack might have, what, two vote-by-mail ballots in it?
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:44 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

How to design ballot security features.

Step 1. Try not to create a system that discourages or spoils more votes than the imaginary fraud you're trying to prevent.
posted by ryanrs at 7:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [20 favorites]

I thought there was a case about dumping ballots in 2012 but it turned out to be Man Arrested for Destruction of Voter Forms in Virginia Has GOP Ties

Registration forms. And not USPS.
posted by petebest at 7:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

IOKIYAR - Poppy Bush's emails edition:

Don Wilson, the national archivist appointed by Ronald Reagan (on the recommendation of Dick Cheney), was so bad that the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, which usually superintends the library system with about as much vigilance as the Intelligence Committee reins in the CIA, was forced in 1992 to conclude he had “failed to exercise care and diligence in fulfilling his responsibilities.” So why in the world did George H.W. Bush name Wilson executive director of his library and foundation? Could it be because with only hours left in the Bush I term, Wilson signed a secret document granting Bush physical custody of the White House email backup tapes? (A federal judge would later strike this document down as “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, and contrary to law,” but by then Wilson had already begun his new job.)

via national treasue Rick Perlstein
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

I should be clear - I don't think there's any organized campaign of voter fraud. I'm concerned about a guy tossing ballots on his individual recognizance. It might not be enough to sway the election- and my state is definitely going for Clinton- but just somehow in this election the idea of my vote not being counted gives me anxiety even if it won't matter.
posted by corb at 7:57 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

In King County we can look up the status of our ballot -- when it's arrived and been reviewed for signature match, it gets logged. If it doesn't arrive I can get a new one that voids the previous one.

King County's system is insanely secure -- the scanner and attached server are airgapped from the internet, it's all within a room with glass walls you can view, and the ballot review area is also in a glass room. After the 2004 debacle, the elections org went all-in on making voting as transparent and secure as possible.
posted by dw at 8:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [22 favorites]

"but just somehow in this election the idea of my vote not being counted gives me anxiety even if it won't matter."

In most (maybe all?) states where you can vote by mail, you can also go down to the election office and drop your ballot in the lockbox yourself, if you're anxious about mailing. (And as people have noted, a lot of states let you verify online that your ballot has been received.) It also lets last-second procrastinators get their ballots in by hand.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

vuron that is actually pretty much how it works as I understand it. Classified stuff stays on SIPRNET. @state.gov or Hillary's server are not for classified materials. And that is what Hillary did. However occasionally someone broke policy and sent her something classified to her email. She wouldn't have known it however because the headers had been removed.
posted by humanfont at 8:01 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Poppy! Say that minds me, it's been approximately one week and 30 years since Ollie North's Shredding Party!

Getcher shoes and socks on, people and let's shred to the oldies!

1986
November 21
Oliver North’s Iran-Contra “Shredding Party” Begins

Over the course of three days beginning on this day, Col. Oliver North, staff member for the National Security Council under President Ronald Reagan, conducted a “shredding party” to destroy incriminating documents related to the Iran-Contra scandal that had been exposed on November 3, 1986.

Y'see kids, back then, before emails, when a man loved the Constitution very much . . . so much (*sniff*), well, he's got to shred incriminating evidence. Through a paper shredder. For three full days.

In the end, eight administration officials were convicted of crimes related to the affair (President George H. W. Bush pardoned six of them on December 24, 1992.)

Ahhh once a Company Man, always a Company Man, eh Popster? You betcha.
posted by petebest at 8:04 PM on October 30, 2016 [41 favorites]

Last election, not only was I too lazy to vote in person, I was even too lazy to mail in my ballot. So I gave my sealed mail-in ballot to my sister to drop off at the polling place when she went to vote on election day.

Seriously people, vote by mail works well. Really!
posted by ryanrs at 8:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

I got my ballot the 20th and mailed it back the 21st. It was verified the 24th. Fast, easy, secure, done.
posted by dw at 8:09 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Yeah Reid called Comeys bluff. Either Comey has to say the FBI doesn't comment on ongoing investigations which more or less confirms there is a FBI investigation of Trump

I'm pretty sure they're not allowed to confirm whether or not there is an investigation, for that very reason.

Banana. Republic.

Banana Republicans.
posted by Room 641-A at 8:11 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

that is actually pretty much how it works as I understand it.

Yes, and ironically I think we'd have fewer 'e-spills' if we only had the one secure system. Sure, that would mean over-controlling routine office business, because anything marked as classified essentially IS until investigated. So you couldn't go printing emails and then throwing them in the regular trash. And there would be FOIA problems, I guess. But as it is, the majority of our e-spills are people forgetting which Outlook profile they're logged into, or getting dragged into an unexpected technical derail in an otherwise unclassified back-and-forth.
posted by ctmf at 8:13 PM on October 30, 2016

Bananas Republican, I think.

Catching up with Fawn Hall (2012)
posted by petebest at 8:15 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

Banana. Republic.

Bananas Republic.
posted by Twain Device at 8:15 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

However occasionally someone broke policy and sent her something classified to her email. She wouldn't have known it however because the headers had been removed.

I could be mistaken, but I believe one or more of the offending chains was forwarding a publicly available newspaper article about a classified surveillance program, which, by the aggressively cautious classification system, makes the email still classified as secret.

ctmf: Yes, and ironically I think we'd have fewer 'e-spills' if we only had the one secure system.

I don't think this would work in the real world. "Did you get the email about the meeting time change?" "Hold on, let me drive back to the consulate, go through security, and log into the network from the SCIF room."
posted by bluecore at 8:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

I remember some bombshell about internet security a while back, and all the diplomats came home, picked up manual typewriters and went back. Remember that?
posted by Oyéah at 8:20 PM on October 30, 2016

Oyéah: I remember some bombshell about internet security a while back, and all the diplomats came home, picked up manual typewriters and went back. Remember that?

Russian guard service reverts to typewriters after NSA leaks
posted by bluecore at 8:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

They're not venerating Reagan anymore - they're venerating Nixon.

Donald Trump Is Running for Richard Nixon’s Third Term

From the ‘Silent Majority’ slogan to the secret plans to win the war, a prodigious enemies list, and a surreal commitment to ‘bring us together,’ it’s Tricky Dick all over again.

posted by kirkaracha at 8:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

I could be mistaken, but I believe one or more of the offending chains was forwarding a publicly available newspaper article about a classified surveillance program, which, by the aggressively cautious classification system, makes the email still classified as secret.

ISTR that that sort of thing fell into the "It wasn't classified at the time but was later classified." AFAIK, the only classified-at-the-time material through her email -- the stuff where people are arguing about what the markings mean and were the headers correct -- was what time she was going to call Kofi Annan and the President of Malawi.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:25 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Chuck Schumer decided to spend $1.7 million from his own war chest of $20 million on downballots. But he's 40 points ahead of Wendy Long and still planning to spend millions on his own ads in the final week of the election. Source.
posted by xyzzy at 8:27 PM on October 30, 2016

Maybe "running for Nixon's third term after Nixon sustained a head injury."
posted by emjaybee at 8:29 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Can I just say that if I hear one more media source make reference to "Clinton's latest use of email" I'm going to explode in a white hot ball of rage.
posted by frumiousb at 8:30 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

Regarding mail-in ballots and postal workers: Not my actual ballot, but my absentee ballot request form was the first time I've had international mail disappear in my 10 years living abroad. Spooky. Luckily it was sent early enough that I had plenty of time to contact my County Clerk. She was super nice and hooked me up with a ballot asap along with several follow up emails. But when I finally sent my ballot, I wasn't taking any chances- I dropped $20 for an international tracking number. Finally arrived and counted last week!
posted by p3t3 at 8:31 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

Emailing While Female
posted by Yowser at 8:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [13 favorites]

I keep trying not to conclude from all this that we're doomed as a species, but it's an uphill battle.
posted by eggkeeper at 8:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

$20 to vote isn't exactly the dream, though...
posted by uosuaq at 8:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

Elijah Cummings has joined Reid on the call for the FBI to dish about the Manafort investigation.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [12 favorites]

$20 to vote isn't exactly the dream, though...

Yeah, And even paying for the fancy express shipping, I was tracking it every day, and the US postal system still took 3-4 days from Chicago airport customs to my SE Michigan town. 3-4 days is supposed to be the total shipping time from Japan to the destination.

Lots of room for voting improvements to be sure. But the abroad system is still better than when I first moved here.
posted by p3t3 at 8:39 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Elijah Cummings has joined Reid on the call for the FBI to dish about the Manafort investigation.

Comey just opened a can of worms. The Senate can now rightfully demand public updates on any given investigation. He's punted precedent out the window. How about Comey respond to Sen. Warren's letter about the Wall Street banker referrals, I believe she was here first.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:42 PM on October 30, 2016 [26 favorites]

But he's 40 points ahead of Wendy Long and still planning to spend millions on his own ads in the final week of the election.

Up here in the 518, the constant barrage of Schumer ads is so baffling. I haven't seen a single ad for Long, and this is a media market with a fair amount of GOP voters (I certainly see enough attack ads trying to malign Zephyr Teachout and she's not even in this district). And the Schumer ads are so damn slick. Well produced and pointless. It's like he just enjoys having them run. He has to know he doesn't need them.
posted by dis_integration at 8:44 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump: Hillary will "triple the size of our country in one week” with "650 million” new immigrants.

Every 1,000th immigrant gets a free email!
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:46 PM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

Josh Marshall: What you have here looks more like a worst case scenario: rogue agents trying to rehash already concluded investigations or launch still other ones in time to effect an election that is only days away. It is no secret that the the rank-and-file of the FBI leans Republican, much the same can be said about law enforcement generally. There's no crime in that. But someone in Comey's position is charged with pursuing justice and the administration of justice free from partisan motivation and in line with the policies and norms that govern such investigations. He's failed in that completely, even after being warned of the consequences of his actions. His intent, the mix of self-protection or naivete or even bad motive if it exists, is basically irrelevant..
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:46 PM on October 30, 2016 [17 favorites]

However occasionally someone broke policy and sent her something classified to her email.

No, the 110 emails out of 30,000 that were later classified were not marked as classified at the time. They were classified as much as seven years later, long after Clinton left office as a part of the release process for a public FOIA request.

The dispute is whether any of those emails actually contained classified information. Clinton claims not. Some classifier years later made a determination, but it is common knowledge that stuff is over classified routinely because that is the safe thing for a minion in the basement to do.

And it's not like they are emailing the nuclear codes to each other. The emails are classified because someone thinks there is some discussion, some talk, some comment in the email that might be sensitive.

It's pretty much impossible for State workers to guarantee that anything they say in their email will not be marked as classified years later. Nobody is looking over their shoulders to approve or disapprove an email in real time. Workers are trusted to use their best judgement in order to get their work done efficiently.

This second guessing, Monday morning quarterbacking, of people of good faith doing their jobs is ridiculous. You could nitpick virtually anyone working in government if you wanted.
posted by JackFlash at 8:47 PM on October 30, 2016 [51 favorites]

It's like he just enjoys having them run. He has to know he doesn't need them.

Top-level campaign staff and "consultants" are often paid partially (or entirely) in points (i.e. percentage) of ad buy $$$. So they're kind of motivated to spend a shitload of money on TV ads even when it's not necessary. It's more than a little fucked, really.
posted by dersins at 8:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

> Trump: Hillary will "triple the size of our country in one week” with "650 million” new immigrants.

If Trump's that bad with basic math, I now understand why he thinks he's a billionaire.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 8:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [51 favorites]

Okay, so this is kind of nebulous and rambly, and has been rattling around in my head since I linked the HRC volunteer opportunities page for Hey Dean Yeager! upthread. On that page (if you haven't followed the link) there are volunteer options broken down by where you want to do them from (home, campaign office, anywhere) and by time increments from "a few weeks" to "no time."

I was struck by the "send a thank you note" option (from anywhere/2 minutes). You text your message to [number] that goes out to volunteers. And, granted, that's a pretty brilliant way for the campaign to capture your phone number so they can text you back.

But then I remember the guys at the beginning of the emotional labor thread who were all "nobody cares about Christmas cards/birthday cards/thank you notes, if it's so much work just don't do it." And how they didn't necessarily understand that it wasn't about the card or the gift, but was instead about making/maintaining connections with people who mattered to us.

And someone a few threads back was talking about how most of any campaign's ground game/GOTV effort depends on women, because we understand how important making those personal connections are for calling and canvassing and following up with people who requested mail-in ballots and and and.

And how fucking brilliant HRC's team is to not only come up with that location/time volunteer breakdown list, and to write it in an engaging way, and to code it, but also to take on all the emotional labor behind all that stuff. Of course they want to make it as easy as possible for people to help. But what help will we need? What will that look like? How should that be worded? What's the best way to present it? How can we appeal to people with different levels of ability? of time? of spoons, ffs? It blows me away, once you know to look, how much HRC and her staff know the value of that emotional labor. And it makes me hopeful that maybe this way of working would be more valued in a HRC presidency. But also terrified that it might not be enough to get there. TTTSC.

Thanks to you all for these threads, even though I mostly just lurk and favorite. You help me grapple with this stuff here, when I can't always do it IRL.
posted by mon-ma-tron at 8:51 PM on October 30, 2016 [88 favorites]

I keep trying not to conclude from all this that we're doomed as a species, but it's an uphill battle.

I don't think I've ever been more anxious and depressed about our species in my whole life than in the last couple of months.
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

July 2016, NY Times Magazine: Could Hillary Clinton Become the Champion of the 99 Percent?

To Wong, though, much of the hand-wringing about Clinton is beside the point. People like to kibitz on the subject of who a politician “really” is, to claim that some votes or statements or gaffes or alliances are deeply revealing and others merely accidents, frivolities or improvisatory performances. We isolate and label a politician’s essence in the hope we might predict with certainty how she’ll behave in the future. But in Wong’s view, the question of who a politician is — and above all who this particular presidential candidate is — is irrelevant. Her strategy is to proceed in public as if the candidate is certain to rise to the occasion.

A few days after the speech, Wong wrote me an email at 6 a.m. on a Sunday, her favorite time to think. “For the 40 years that she has been in the public eye,” she wrote, “Hillary Clinton has been the subject of constant political analysis, armchair psychoanalysis, horrible rumor verging on slander — and also adoration, especially from a number of women around her age who want to see her not just as a role model but a heroine.” She continued: “The good news for those of us arguing strenuously for the wisdom of structural economic and political reform: Whether Hillary ‘really believes in the cause’ or not does not matter. This surfeit of attention leaves out a bunch of other politically relevant factors beyond what is ‘true’ about Hillary internally.”

posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

"triple the size of our country in one week” with "650 million”

That would pretty much make her logistics superwoman. U.S. and foreign air carriers transported 196.3 million passengers between the United States and the rest of the world for the year-ended June 2015. Greater than 3 times that number in less than 1/50th the time would be an awesome trick.
posted by ctmf at 8:58 PM on October 30, 2016 [15 favorites]

Hey dances_with_sneetches - sorry. I feel for you both, that's some shitty news.
posted by Golem XIV at 8:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [8 favorites]

Trump: Hillary will "triple the size of our country in one week” with "650 million” new immigrants.

Apart from Trump's "650" fixation tonight, I think I know the origin of that bullshit line (from the white supremacist fringe, of course, back when they called themselves "racial realists" instead of "alt-right"): it's the extrapolation from global surveys of how many people would like to emigrate from their home country to the US.

The appropriate reply to that is that 650 million people around the world probably wish they could date Beyoncé, but na ga happen.

From the campaign perspective, it means Trump is only listening to Bannon and Miller right now. No more Conway stuff in the speeches or the attitude. He's being gorged on fascism like a foie gras goose, and fascism is what's being shat out on stage.
posted by holgate at 8:59 PM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

That would pretty much make her logistics superwoman.

As a friend noted, it takes two hours at passport control to get through a couple of hundred visitors on a flight from the UK, so good fucking luck with that.
posted by holgate at 9:00 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

Hlep my redneck sister is either drunk or high and texting me shitty ancient anti-Hillary jokes. I am trying so hard to go high and not respond.
posted by emjaybee at 9:10 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

I think I know the origin of that bullshit line (from the white supremacist fringe, of course, back when they called themselves "racial realists" instead of "alt-right"): it's the extrapolation from global surveys of how many people would like to emigrate from their home country to the US.

I'm so glad we have windtalkers here to translate from the native white supremacist, because I never would've put that together, and I'm pretty conversant in the right wing language. Trump is drawing on depths of the fever swamp that have only ever been seen by Edward Norton (as Derek Vinyard) and Stan Beeman in his deep undercover period.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:13 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Don't respond even once.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:15 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

It might not be enough to sway the election- and my state is definitely going for Clinton- but just somehow in this election the idea of my vote not being counted gives me anxiety even if it won't matter.

Corb has it. I want to know my vote was counted and counted the way I cast it, regardless of how insignificant it is in the grand scheme of things. It's one of the reasons I haven't come up with an excuse and voted absentee this year (the main reason is because I want to stand in line on Election Day to cast my vote for the first woman to be president, just to say that I did. :)).
posted by longdaysjourney at 9:16 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

If you work out all the planes in the world that could accept passengers, and assume they're all L1011 sized, and assume that once the plane gets over land in the US passengers and fuel just sort of teleport on and off the plane, you couldn't even move everyone from North America into the United States. But, you know, magical thinking is a symptom of a lot of disorders.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 9:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

Text her back that You can tell Donald Trump from a pumpkin looking at the skin. Both are orange, but Trump's is much thinner.
posted by humanfont at 9:18 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

I want to know my vote was counted and counted the way I cast it, regardless of how insignificant it is in the grand scheme of things.

Two business days after I dropped my vote-by-mail ballot into the drop box at the courthouse I was able to check the Registrar of Voters' website and get confirmation that it had been received and will be counted. If anything, this is more confirmation than I've gotten in the past when I've voted in person on the day.
posted by Lexica at 9:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Halloween report: decided against Trump and Hillary costumes for my kids. Still think they would be fine/cute but older one is really into being a witch and I realized she has no idea why it's a big deal for a woman to be president so we're leaving it at that.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:22 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

If people tell me they prefer Trump, I can barely refrain from shrieking "What the fuck is wrong with you?!" All logic and vocabulary flees and all I have left is shock and horror. So, good luck with your sister. (I guess the high road is to tell her you love her, but that you are busy.)
posted by puddledork at 9:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

One of my daughters and I just got back from a for-old-times sake trip down
to Bellingham WA from Canada, and you wouldn't know there's an election
going on. During some 4 hours of highway and aimless driving around admiring
the autumn leaves we saw a total of 4 signs, none of which were in front of
a house. One defaced Trump sign, one governor, two signs for someone running
for a state rep. Contrast that with the last federal election here in Vancouver,
or the last provincial election, or the last city election. Ahh, that's the difference.
Our elections vs. this single monolithic election where voters are sent
a 152-page "pamphlet" full of all the statements by candidates running
for various positions at three levels of gov't (federal, state, and county), along
with about half a dozen initiatives and referenda.

And keep in mind that this is America, so you can't relax a bit figuring half the
pamphlet will be in another language. Nope, if you're going to be an informed
voter you need to take those 152 pages into consideration.

I'm all for citizen democracy, but can see why this exercise might be a tad too
intimidating for those who don't have a political science degree, a subscription
to Atlantic, or a Metafilter user ID. Imagine if the elections at different levels
were held at different times, and while you guys are at it cap the campaign durations
(the FCC still controls who gets broadcast licenses and what they can do with it,
right?), and the amount of cash that can be spent on any candidate or initiative.

However, I'm sure the founding fathers wanted it to be exactly like this, so there's
nothing anyone can do.
posted by morspin at 9:25 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

MeFi's own (at least, in the olden days) Oliver Willis: Dear White Journalists: Your Racist Grandma Voting For Trump Is Being Racist. Report That.

I believe that they have encountered a strange paradox in which the people spewing racism resemble their grandmothers (or parents, or aunts and uncles). It is one thing to see some random person on television spout bigotry in black and white footage from the 1950s and 1960s, it is a whole other thing to hear it from the same person handing you mashed potatoes every Thanksgiving.

The problem is, this isn’t journalism to view things through this lens. It doesn’t matter how much you love your grandmother or the woman at the Trump rally who looks a lot like her and sounds like her. This is bigotry, and to treat it as anything else is to enable it.

It's a piece partially in response to This American Life's most recent episode which featured yet another "let's gently interview some bigots being bigoted" segment, which makes it the 3741st of this election year.

I'm so glad we have windtalkers here to translate from the native white supremacist, because I never would've put that together, and I'm pretty conversant in the right wing language.

I'm not even going to identify the bigot spouting that in the 00s, because get tae fuck with that old racist shitstain, but it shows the extent to which Trump is now preaching to a crowd that lives in that swamp and gets the references, and not to any fucker else.
posted by holgate at 9:30 PM on October 30, 2016 [16 favorites]

How about we write the Hillary jokes that Tim would tell? Dad Hillary jokes.
posted by medusa at 9:33 PM on October 30, 2016 [6 favorites]

Kid Charlemagne, what if we divert the aircraft from the contrail spraying? Lot of assets there. I mean, we only need 2.7 million 787s for 168 hours. So 16,000 aircraft turnarounds per hour. Should be able to handle that at the secret chemical spray bases. Plus, some people might drive.
posted by ctmf at 9:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

And keep in mind that this is America, so you can't relax a bit figuring half the
pamphlet will be in another language. Nope, if you're going to be an informed
voter you need to take those 152 pages into consideration.

Cute. I've got 314 pages in the local election book, plus 222 in the California state one, for 536 pages to consider. If I exclude the legal text of the propositions, it's a mere 367 pages though.

We seem to like voting a lot here, or should I say, the legislature prefers making things not their problem.
posted by zachlipton at 9:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Two business days after I dropped my vote-by-mail ballot into the drop box at the courthouse I was able to check the Registrar of Voters' website and get confirmation that it had been received and will be counted.

That's great, but how does Oregon's system protect against a scenario like this, where the ballot was changed (or more likely made invalid) by the receiving clerk? It's basically only luck that the clerk in Florida was caught marking ballots. On the other hand, the number of individuals that would need to be involved to divert/change/destroy paper ballots that are immediately scanned by machine and also retained to allow for manual recounts in my jurisdiction would be so large as to almost surely make such a plan impossible to carry out.
posted by longdaysjourney at 9:34 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

Would Comey have been so quick to disregard DOJ protocol and recommendations if the Attorney General was a white man? If the President was a white man? If the target of his investigation was a white man?
posted by sallybrown at 9:36 PM on October 30, 2016 [31 favorites]

Eric Holder: James Comey is a good man, but he made a serious mistake

Those of us who have served as stewards of our nation’s justice system — from line prosecutors to attorneys general — are tasked with an awesome responsibility. The idea that all Americans are entitled to the same rights and obligations — to fair treatment and due process — is central to who we are and what we stand for as a nation. Whether that idea endures for future generations depends on the actions we take to keep its promise real.

I served with Jim Comey and I know him well. This is a very difficult piece for me to write. He is a man of integrity and honor. I respect him. But good men make mistakes. In this instance, he has committed a serious error with potentially severe implications. It is incumbent upon him — or the leadership of the department — to dispel the uncertainty he has created before Election Day. It is up to the director to correct his mistake — not for the sake of a political candidate or campaign but in order to protect our system of justice and best serve the American people.

posted by sallybrown at 9:41 PM on October 30, 2016 [14 favorites]

Neil Patrick Harris and the songwriters from ‘Frozen’ created a song about Paul Ryan’s 2016 sadness

“It’s only for your sake that I endorsed
I’m sure you could tell it was completely forced
Now the guy is calling me a wussy
I wish I could grab him by the… lapels and tell him
I’ll be there to pick up all the pieces
I’ll be there no matter what they say
Cut him loose and don’t let him near your nieces
Then come on back to me”

The song is about 9 minutes into this episode.
posted by zachlipton at 9:42 PM on October 30, 2016 [9 favorites]

Hlep my redneck sister is either drunk or high and texting me shitty ancient anti-Hillary jokes. I am trying so hard to go high and not respond.

Text her back: "I'm going to donate $1 to Hillary for every anti-Hillary text I get from you from now on."

If she keeps going, just start sending her the confirmation screenshots.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:42 PM on October 30, 2016 [72 favorites]

Jack Flash:

I thought some 2000 other emails were retroactively classified but 110 out of 113 were classified at the time but unmarked?

I didn't want to request it earlier in the thread because I thought it was a derail but as the conversation has moved to the email scandal I'll ask:

Has anyone seen a really good, thorough breakdown of the email thing?
posted by orange ball at 9:43 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

"How about we write the Hillary jokes that Tim would tell? Dad Hillary jokes."

"Boys will be boys." Okay, then women will be Presidents.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:49 PM on October 30, 2016 [10 favorites]

[The (c) emails were confidential, not classified.]
posted by xyzzy at 9:52 PM on October 30, 2016 [7 favorites]

Saw the Family Circus comic in the Sunday Funnies (I subscribe to the local paper only on Sunday) and it showed two of the little kids trick-or-treating as Donald and Hillary (but its Hillary is wearing a purple pantsuit, a color I don't think she'd wear). Meanwhile, two other comics in the Funny Pages are making Halloween-themed statements: Soup to Nuts (read the sign closely; some newspapers are going to get angry letters-to-the-editor) and Candorville (by Darrin Bell who also does editorial cartoons, and they often overlap - this one is strangely understanding).

Election 2016: Neither Halloween nor the Funnies are safe.
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

sallybrown: I think that's perhaps approaching the question from the wrong side.

Would Comey have been so quick to disregard protocol if the other presidential candidate weren't an authoritarian deliberately stoking the authoritarian tendencies of certain people in law enforcement, or in an environment where the rank and file didn't include people fed so much Clinton conspiracy shit that they took their politics to work every fucking day and sought to use their special privileges to politicise their investigations?

Going back to his handling of the Cheney waterboarding operation and the Libby case, Comey comes across as a small-c conservative desk jockey -- a rules and procedures guy, basically -- in charge of an organisation that's infested with freelance zealots who leak to favoured reporters (like the WSJ guy) at will. That's not to absolve him of agency here: the latent Trumpist element within the FBI showed itself and he's not shown himself capable of dealing with it.
posted by holgate at 9:54 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Neil Patrick Harris and the songwriters from ‘Frozen’ created a song about Paul Ryan’s 2016 sadness

Note: there is an additional bonus song about Reince Preibus by Michael Friedman, composer of Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, mentioned upthread. Find it in the This American Life show at 1:02:00.
posted by zachlipton at 10:00 PM on October 30, 2016

Eight days and a wake up.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:03 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

To elaborate: the common thread through Comey's tenure as deputy AG and FBI director is that he fucking hates things that get around the system, whether it's black ops waterboarding or outing Valerie Plame Wilson or running SecState comms through a private email server or trying to stall the Garner investigation because you're pally with the NYPD. There are rules and procedures in place and if you try to wheedle around them you deserve to face the music. Now, we can argue degrees of awfulness among the things listed there, but we all know "rules is rules" people.
posted by holgate at 10:06 PM on October 30, 2016 [4 favorites]

Or she was trying to dodge FOIA.

Curiously, Clinton is the only Secretary of State in history since the advent of email to fully comply with the FOIA and provide copies of her emails to the national archives.

I got a ton of pushback when I suggested that Clinton might have been trying to dodge FOIA with her private email. We know she didn't provide copies of all of her emails to the national archives, since she has her aides delete all the personal emails before turning them over.

Let's hope they did a good job with that, because CNN is saying
Investigators believe it's likely the newly recovered trove will include emails that were deleted from the Clinton server before the FBI took possession of it as part of that earlier investigation.
posted by andoatnp at 10:07 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

Does anyone know when that disgusting latest Trump tape dropped? (The one where he publicly humiliates and kisses a beauty pageant contestant that "slighted" him.)

Because I think it's at least as damning as anything else out there, but it's been totally overshadowed by Comey. I just wonder if it's the victim of the worst timing ever for an oppo drop (and on a Friday afternoon, even) or a preemptive strike meant to be buried.
posted by Room 641-A at 10:08 PM on October 30, 2016

That's great, but how does Oregon's system protect against a scenario like this, where the ballot was changed (or more likely made invalid) by the receiving clerk? It's basically only luck that the clerk in Florida was caught marking ballots.

Same thing happened in Oregon once. A Republican election worker was caught altering ballots to vote for the Republican when the voter had left the section blank. The person who caught her was also a Republican (iirc) and turned her ass in.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 10:12 PM on October 30, 2016 [5 favorites]

We know she didn't provide copies of all of her emails to the national archives

Hillary Clinton turned in all the work-related emails before telling the email vendor to switch to 60 day retention. If you have actual evidence showing otherwise, I'd like to see it.
posted by mikelieman at 10:15 PM on October 30, 2016 [21 favorites]

John Oliver's description of the election tonight: "The shit-filled cornucopia that just keeps on giving 2016."

"Bacardi should really consider switching their slogan to: 'Bacardi: because there more fucking Clinton emails'"

"Anthony Weiner is...putting Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the Presidency into serious danger. Carlos Danger."

"So nine days out from the election, the FBI is basically delivering us the equivalent of mystery box. And like the box from the end of Seven, it could contain anything from nothing to Gwyneth Paltrow's head. Although it almost definitely contains Anthony Weiner's penis."

"Now a month ago, when Donald Trump tweeted we should check out a sex tape of a former Miss Universe contestant, I said if you looked up, you would see rock bottom. Well if you look up now, you will see absolutely nothing, and I'll tell you why, we have burrowed through not just rock bottom, but through the core of the earth and we've come bursting out the other side, startling kangaroos, and we're currently hurtling toward outer space where there is no up, down, light, or darkness, just an endless void in which death comes as sweet, sweet relief. Please, let this be over soon."
posted by zachlipton at 10:18 PM on October 30, 2016 [56 favorites]

Does anyone know when that disgusting latest Trump tape dropped?

Thursday? Friday? The sad thing is that the pace of the campaign has meant that the "national conversation on sexual assault" has been steamrollered. That Trump is a disgusting serial groper and humiliator of women is now, horrifically, blah blah blah. It's baked into the electoral cake.

What I think is to come is different. I'll just leave this piece from 1997. Once you've got over cringing at some of the language, remember some of the names. Note which ones have already talked about Trump. And wait a few days.
posted by holgate at 10:20 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

and we've come bursting out the other side, startling kangaroos

I do love how John Oliver retains his deep British folk understanding that if you dig right through the globe you'll come out in Australia and not China. I mean, really, China? It's not even the right hemisphere.
posted by holgate at 10:24 PM on October 30, 2016 [22 favorites]

I got a ton of pushback when I suggested that Clinton might have been trying to dodge FOIA with her private email. We know she didn't provide copies of all of her emails to the national archives, since she has her aides delete all the personal emails before turning them over.

As I understand it, she had her lawyers determine which emails were work-related and which were not. While I'm sure they're well-compensated and loyal, I'm guessing they're not so well-compensated and loyal as to risk obstruction of justice charges.
posted by dirigibleman at 10:37 PM on October 30, 2016 [23 favorites]

holgate: "That's not to absolve him of agency here: the latent Trumpist element within the FBI showed itself and he's not shown himself capable of dealing with it."

Someone said this upthread, but if nothing else, this is reason for Comey to resign. There's clearly a significant group of basically rogue agents within the FBI, and Comey has shown himself unwilling (or more likely) unable to deal with it.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:45 PM on October 30, 2016 [3 favorites]

In most (maybe all?) states where you can vote by mail, you can also go down to the election office and drop your ballot in the lockbox yourself, if you're anxious about mailing. (And as people have noted, a lot of states let you verify online that your ballot has been received.) It also lets last-second procrastinators get their ballots in by hand.

Thank you--I'd been wondering. We vote by mail but have been turning in our ballots on election day for years, ever since one of our ballots got sent back to us in the post, too late to return it. (Post office apparently flipped it over and read the return address as the "to" address.) Good to know I should be able to drop them off in advance.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:46 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

I would be thrilled if they found and reviewed 33! Thousand! Deleted! Emails! and discovered they really were all about yoga pants and weddings.
posted by xyzzy at 10:50 PM on October 30, 2016 [22 favorites]

it's not a simple matter of opening a laptop and looking for an icon named "Mail"....

Next you'll tell me that you can't really hook a PowerBook up to an alien spacecraft and type "UPLOAD VIRUS."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:53 PM on October 30, 2016 [40 favorites]

We haven't seen many Trump or Clinton signs in Northern Virginia, but whilst driving through residential Orlando yesterday we saw tons, mostly Trump. Grrr.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:55 PM on October 30, 2016 [2 favorites]

As I understand it, she had her lawyers determine which emails were work-related and which were not. While I'm sure they're well-compensated and loyal, I'm guessing they're not so well-compensated and loyal as to risk obstruction of justice charges.

And there's no law against government employees using personal email for personal business. Indeed, they might be required to do so, since otherwise they're using government resources for non-government purposes, which is particularly forbidden if those purposes involve political activity.

So let's imagine that the NSA had cooperated as requested and given Clinton a secure mobile device for government email. She would likely still have had to use another device and a personal account for personal business. And it would have been entirely on her, and more or less on the honor system, for her to use the right device for each particular purpose. Those personal emails wouldn't be subject to FOIA.

All that said, Judicial Watch does have concerns about the process that took place to separate out her work-related emails, pointing to, for instance, some emails between Clinton and Petraeus that were obtained from DoD but weren't handed over as part of the Clinton email dump.
posted by zachlipton at 11:01 PM on October 30, 2016

I do love how John Oliver retains his deep British folk understanding that if you dig right through the globe you'll come out in Australia and not China. I mean, really, China? It's not even the right hemisphere.

Antipodes Map

Besides, startling kangaroos is funnier, both visually and verbally.
posted by mochapickle at 11:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [19 favorites]

So yeah, thinking about the Trump telling people to go in, vote again, and have their mail in ballot voided. I've been told that in some states you really can have your mail in ballot shredded and replaced. Don't know if it's true, honestly, I kind of doubt it, but, what the hell, let's run with that. Either way, every person who does this is going to bring a package of entropy to the polling place with them. When they're told no, they're going to get into an argument with the workers, the judges, maybe even the police. If there are in fact places where they can have their mail in ballot voided, they're going to cause a worker to have to dig up and destroy that ballot. That's going to cause backups at the polls, which will causing people to flag off and just come back later. And let's be honest here, many (most?) of those people won't come back at all.

So, yeah, he's going to suppress the legitimate vote and might even pull off some stochastic voter fraud, which I'm sure will help him out in the fourth or fifth decimal place. But Trump supporters are more likely to be from precincts where Trump is favored in direct proportion to how much Trump is favored there! So he's literally sending people out to derail the election in the places where he enjoys the strongest support.

It's like they're now sharpening his razor with nanotechnology.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 11:17 PM on October 30, 2016 [34 favorites]

We haven't seen many Trump or Clinton signs in Northern Virginia, but whilst driving through residential Orlando yesterday we saw tons, mostly Trump. Grrr.

Can we please stop using the sign thing as a barometer for anything? One supporter doing a shift knocking doors helps a campaign more than dozens of supporters with yard signs.

Today I told four first time voters where they could drop off their ballots, gave two people the phone number they could use to report that their ballot hadn't arrived, and signed two strangers up for volunteer shifts next weekend. My neighbor's Bernie sign (yes, it's still up, because Portland) did none of these things.
posted by dersins at 11:23 PM on October 30, 2016 [40 favorites]

All that said, Judicial Watch does have concerns about the process that took place to separate out her work-related emails, pointing to, for instance, some emails between Clinton and Petraeus that were obtained from DoD but weren't handed over as part of the Clinton email dump.

'Concerns' is a new code for 'right-wing smear', as far I can tell, and judicialwatch is just as fully paid up a member of the anti clinton hate machine as Kellyanne Conway.

salon.com on judicialwatch

...

One of the biggest players in the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy was an outfit called Judicial Watch, formed in the early 90s by a conservative gadfly named Larry Klayman. Klayman was a one-man wrecking crew who filed more than 18 lawsuits against members of the Clinton administration costing them millions of dollars in legal fees. The most notable of these was a $90 million invasion of privacy suit filed against Hillary Clinton and others on behalf of the “victims” of Filegate, one of the many scandals for which both Bill and Hillary Clinton were completely exonerated by two different independent counsels. The lawsuit was colorfully described at the time by Jacob Weisberg of Slate:
Klayman has found an opening to harass his political opponents, inflicting costly all-day depositions on Harold Ickes, [George] Stephanopoulos, James Carville, Paul Begala, and many others … Klayman asks administration officials about whom they date, where they go after work, whether they were expelled from school for disciplinary problems. One 23-year-old White House assistant was interrogated about a triple murder that took place at a Starbucks in Georgetown. Klayman videotapes these depositions, excerpts of which air on Geraldo when Klayman appears on the program, and publishes the transcripts on the Internet. This is in pursuit of a case about the invasion of privacy, remember … The ultimate goal of the Filegate suit appears to be to inflict this treatment on Hillary Clinton.
That was just one of many Judicial Watch lawsuits, including one in which Klayman sued his own mother for $50,000, that went nowhere. But they did achieve their true purpose, which was to damage reputations, smear political opponents and inflict huge legal fees on anyone who happened to be in the administration.

posted by sebastienbailard at 11:28 PM on October 30, 2016 [35 favorites]

Just a shout out that the MeFites United call team is now #2 on the all time list (behind the unstoppable "H" team). Thanks especially to the three MeFites who have made over 400 calls in the ~2 weeks since the team was set up! As a reminder, you can join by following this link.
posted by zachlipton at 11:30 PM on October 30, 2016 [47 favorites]

In Oregon and Washington they post ballot pickup boxes at various places as soon as the ballots start being mailed, dropping them off is easy (at car window height, etc).

And you can register to get text notifications about the progress of your ballot.
posted by mrzarquon at 11:32 PM on October 30, 2016 [1 favorite]

A couple of questions about Hillary's emails, what (c) meant, who deleted which emails or turned htem over when.

All of that info is available in the FBI's final report. It's free, straight from the FBI vault!
posted by msalt at 11:49 PM on October 30, 2016 [11 favorites]

The last few days are basically a master class in how to manufacture a scandal based on fuzzy or vague data, so long as the media is compliant. It reminds me a lot of the run-up to the Iraq war in that the media transparently know they're participating in an imitation of civic life, but hey, they got bored with the reality of the campaign. So a partisan leak of what they all admit so far is nothing is a "devastating" setback.

It's really, really gross.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 12:15 AM on October 31, 2016 [62 favorites]

Judicial Watch does have concerns

JW is a garbage C-rated charity that uses lawsuits to eternally punish people financially despite the findings of multiple independent investigators that demonstrate there is no there, there. Even though they get the vast majority of their funding from a single donor, they somehow spend 30% of their grant on fundraising.
posted by xyzzy at 12:17 AM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

thanks for the link, msalt. that's a terrific resource.

spoiler: (C) is an indicator of classified information at the Confidential level. Other classification levels include Secret, Top Secret, and SCI.
posted by j_curiouser at 12:18 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

(I just want to call out something I don't think is good. All this "take up arms" posturing is ugly, and really not a good look for MeFites. The whole point of opposing Trump is to avoid violence. Even if his supporters keep calling for it, DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS. The proper response right now is to ignore it, elect Clinton in a landslide, and kick ass for at least 4 years.)
posted by iffthen at 12:34 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

I think Mooski nailed it above. The way to kick ass:

What I do worry about is whether the Clinton Administration will have the political will to face down the mountain of bullshit that's coming its way. I want her to come out swinging and suborn every enemy she can and kneecap those she can't. I want her to be worth the hope I've managed to pull out of my hat, I want her to not care if she gets elected or impeached, I want her to destroy these homophobic, misogynist, racist fucks who've poisoned our country.

I'm a fairly non-partisan individual. But I think that Republicans in the US, especially during the Obama administration, have been behaving immorally, in the sense that they have a duty they've utterly failed to discharge. I don't think their behaviour has been acceptable and I hope Clinton lets them have it.
posted by iffthen at 12:39 AM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

I'm sitting in an airport trying to escape the omnipresent cable news, and two pilots chatting about lying liars trying to be president just sat behind me. I've got my Love Trumps Hate button pretty visible, so hopefully they'll notice and go the heck away.

On the bright side, the Dunkin Donuts employees seem to be enthusiastically in costume, so goth Mad Hatter made me coffee and Julius Caesar got me my donut.
posted by ChuraChura at 2:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Hlep my redneck sister is either drunk or high and texting me shitty ancient anti-Hillary jokes. I am trying so hard to go high and not respond.

Change your phone number tomorrow and tell her you changed it last week.
posted by tilde at 3:17 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Top airport tip: many phones have ir broadcasting ports that can be used as universal remotes to turn down the volume on public tvs!
posted by sebastienbailard at 3:33 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

If Clinton can show more spine than Obama did, I'll be pleasantly surprised but I am absolutely not counting on it.

We've never had a Democratic President who fought in my entire life, and I see no reason to imagine that Clinton will be the first. I'd love to see someone actually stand up to the Republicans, but I am cynical enough at this point to doubt it will ever happen.
posted by sotonohito at 3:38 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Also, datapoint: my family and I voted yesterday and here in my district of San Antonio the lines were fairly long, but moving quickly. I timed it and it was 26 minutes from getting out of the car to getting back into the car. Not bad at all, but shockingly long for early voting in Texas. Election day is going to be a nightmare if this is any indication.

San Antonio is reliably pale blue, but with this sort of turnout who knows?

Also, datapoint, outside the polling place there were four Clinton signs to one Trump sign, and I live in a whiter and more Republican part of town.
posted by sotonohito at 3:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

Or she was trying to dodge FOIA.

I got a ton of pushback when I suggested that Clinton might have been trying to dodge FOIA with her private email. We know she didn't provide copies of all of her emails to the national archives, since she has her aides delete all the personal emails before turning them over.

Let's hope they did a good job with that, because CNN is saying

You got pushback because she wasn't dodging. And separating personal from work emails in response to a FOIA request is completely normal.

Regarding your concern that Clinton might've tried to hide something in that personal email deletion, I'm going to say no, considering the FBI has already recovered 14,900 of them and there was no issue with them.
posted by chris24 at 3:45 AM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

never had a Democratic President who fought

Define "fought". It is a true conundrum, you know. If the other side (any other side) lowers the level so much that retaliation is only possible by throwing back the muck even harder, you'll automatically end up with the better people just not wanting to do that. I can't see how that's bad.
posted by Namlit at 3:46 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Sweet Jebus...NPR just had Cokie "The Waffle" Roberts and Tucker Fucking Carlson on to "discuss" the new Comey emails. It was so sad and predictable. Roberts, especially, needs to just hang it up and stop riding her own ancient, tattered coattails. You lost your mojo and relevancy ages ago, dearie.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:48 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I voted by mail and also got the VoterNotify "your ballot has between received" text, which is a nice service. The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections seems to have its act together - they send you texts, if your absentee ballot application has a problem (e.g., you forgot to sign it like me) they return it with an explanation of the issue, and while their website could stand a redesign it is always up-to-date and works well. So, um, yay for government doing its job and working for its constituents?
posted by Tehhund at 4:05 AM on October 31, 2016 [112 favorites]

We've never had a Democratic President who fought in my entire life, and I see no reason to imagine that Clinton will be the first. I'd love to see someone actually stand up to the Republicans, but I am cynical enough at this point to doubt it will ever happen.

You were born in 2001?

When Bill Clinton won the nomination his main rival in the Democratic Primary, Jerry Brown, was proposing a flat tax and abolishing the Department of Education. The Republicans immediately turned all their guns on him and he had very little support from his party - and yes he did fight. But it was the sort of fighting you do when you are at the front of a runaway train (the Republicans had only failed to win one single term in the White House since 1968 and that thanks to Watergate). For example "his" Welfare Reform bill - it was vetoed twice and stripped of its worst provisions before Gingrich came back with a veto-proof majority. To say Bill Clinton didn't fight is ridiculous.

And Hillary has far more steel than Bill. She also knows the system better than anyone.
posted by Francis at 4:10 AM on October 31, 2016 [35 favorites]

Namlit And there we have exhibit A in "how to justify refusing to fight back", it's a defense often taken by Democrats.

The next will be a variant on "keeping our powder dry", the idea that while the Republicans can obstruct with utter impunity forever, the Democrats will only ever get exactly one chance to use the filibuster, or whatever other means, and therefore should never do so no matter how egregious the Republican proposal because maybe the next Republican proposal will be worse and then we'll **really** need the filibuster or whatever and won't be be sorry if we wasted it on this comparatively minor thing. That, I recall, was the main justification for Democratic failure to stop any of Bush Jr's evils. We didn't stop any of them, but by god we had the driest powder ever!

I could give a shit about being "better people". I want to win. I fail to see how wanting to win is a bad thing, and I fail to see how punishing Republicans who abuse us is a bad thing.

As the very first step, I hope she ends this stupid, insulting, tradition of appointing Republicans to defense related posts. It's a surrender at the most basic level, an implicit agreement that the Democrats are inherently unfit for those posts and that by some sort of divine right they belong to Republicans.

Especially in light of the unprecedented degree of obstructionism and general all around awfulness from the Republicans I'd say they've lost any right to be treated like normal opponents. They aren't a loyal opposition, they're an opposition entirely untethered by any concept of loyalty, an opposition explicitly willing to sabotage the entire country for the sake of hurting Democrats.

But I have no doubt that Clinton will do exactly as you recommend and follow the path of the past, spineless, cowardly, surrender to everything, Democrats and then be shocked, shocked I tell you, that doing so didn't magically make the Republicans be nice to her.
posted by sotonohito at 4:11 AM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

You make a good point, Thorzdad - Cokie Roberts is 72 freakin' years old, for cryin' out loud, and presumably is financially secure. Why isn't she retired?

One could ask the same question about George Will (age 75), Chris "Tweety" Matthews (70), and any number of other pundits and media figures who seem to have attitudes and mentalities that are stuck in the 1970s and 80s. Will all of these people keep appearing in major media outlets until they literally drop dead?

(Please note, it's not that I think that older people are automatically incapable. It's that the particular batch of oldsters who make up a highly visible part of the political press seem to cling to outmoded notions of candidates, politics and the parties - for example, seeing Republicans as "fiscally responsible" when they've actually spent money like crazy and run up big deficits every chance they've had in the last 36 years, or calling them "strong on defense" despite 9/11 and the botched wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc.)
posted by Nat "King" Cole Porter Wagoner at 4:13 AM on October 31, 2016 [25 favorites]

All of that info is available in the FBI's final report. It's free, straight from the FBI vault!

Seconded! Thank you for that msalt! So, my tl;dr: is "Stop blaming women for what other people do". Any classified information in any email was created and sent by someone else, whether in Ops at State, or Public Information, or wherever. So yeah, her mea-culpa on taking the path of least email resistance was spot on, it wasn't against the law, but it wasn't the best considered path but that's where responsibility ends.

( I twitched when I saw they ran their own BES instance. ONE client ever wanted one ( fucking Executive Directors ), but they went with a hosted solution. )
posted by mikelieman at 4:16 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Define "fought"

Past tense of "fight"
posted by thelonius at 4:18 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

There are rules and procedures in place and if you try to wheedle around them you deserve to face the music. Now, we can argue degrees of awfulness among the things listed there, but we all know "rules is rules" people.

If that's Comey's attitude, then I'm sure he won't mind getting his ass handed to him for violating his own agency's rules and procedures, the guidelines of the Justice Department, and the directives given him by his superior, ethics counsel, and the Hatch Act.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

Define "fought"

Past tense of "fight"

In some part of Australia, it's the past tense of "fink".
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:23 AM on October 31, 2016 [41 favorites]

I voted by mail and also got the VoterNotify "your ballot has between received" text, which is a nice service.

WELCOME TEHHUND to the end of the thread! We knew you could make it!
posted by mmoncur at 4:25 AM on October 31, 2016 [73 favorites]

posted by Tehhund at 4:05 AM on October 31

Glad you made it!
posted by snofoam at 4:27 AM on October 31, 2016 [25 favorites]

Nice to see you, Tehhund! Have some (non-dropped) pie!
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:28 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

So yesterday I got one of the 4,527 emails and texts I get daily from the Hillary campaign, usually telling me that the world will end if I don't give more money immediately. This one basically said, "if you're mad, sign up to GOTV." When I clicked the link, it took me to a page where I could put in my zip code (DC) and gave me choices of several days, time slots, and relatively convenient locations where I can knock on doors. I chose a town near York PA. I've already gotten an email confirming the slots, asking me to pull in friends, and making me feel good for volunteering. Then I learn that one of the campaign's responses to the Comey drop is to set up 350 new GOTV offices in PA, where apparently there is no early voting. This is the ground game all y'all have been talking about, right? NICE.
posted by Cocodrillo at 4:28 AM on October 31, 2016 [54 favorites]

🎉🎉 Tehhund! 🎉🎉

Well guys, the JCPL has emerged from its dormant state and is back at moderate. Moderate isn't terrible but I am not looking forward to a full damn week of IS THIS THE END OF HILLARY CLINTON email stories. I hope Trump kicks a puppy on live television soon.
posted by Justinian at 4:29 AM on October 31, 2016 [30 favorites]

Well she was only running her own blackberry enterprise server not a lotus notes and domino server. She isn't a complete monster after all.

I feel kind of sorry that public officials are still stuck on blackberries though.
posted by vuron at 4:30 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Speaking of pie, user blueberry also seems to be en route.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:33 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

@BraddJaffy: Politico/Morning Consult poll post-Comey — Clinton +3, same as previous poll
posted by zombieflanders at 4:46 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Eichenwald cover story, Newsweek: Donald Trump's Companies Destroyed Emails in Defiance of Court Orders

Over the course of decades, Donald Trump’s companies have systematically destroyed or hidden thousands of emails, digital records and paper documents demanded in official proceedings, often in defiance of court orders. These tactics—exposed by a Newsweek review of thousands of pages of court filings, judicial orders and affidavits from an array of court cases—have enraged judges, prosecutors, opposing lawyers and the many ordinary citizens entangled in litigation with Trump. In each instance, Trump and entities he controlled also erected numerous hurdles that made lawsuits drag on for years, forcing courtroom opponents to spend huge sums of money in legal fees as they struggled—sometimes in vain—to obtain records.

posted by valetta at 4:49 AM on October 31, 2016 [72 favorites]

Eichenwald cover story, Newsweek: Donald Trump's Companies Destroyed Emails in Defiance of Court Orders

Emails? EMAILS, YOU SAY? Ha ha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Ba-hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Eichenwald just shot a pie across Donald's bow.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [49 favorites]

Good morning and Happy Halloween: "Our 8 year-old son is with you @hillaryclinton today and everyday. #halloween2016 #notawig #imwithher #heswithher #wholefamswithher @HFA"
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:00 AM on October 31, 2016 [32 favorites]

And here's the festive Newsweek cover.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:00 AM on October 31, 2016 [27 favorites]

spitbull, per Joe in Australia's Oz vernacular, I don't fink an apology is needed.

Ah, that Newsweek cover is a beautiful thing.
posted by valetta at 5:06 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

IOKIYAR

Trump, Bush, et al are allowed to delete emails with impunity because a)they are Republicans and b)they aren't female and c)not named Clinton
posted by vuron at 5:08 AM on October 31, 2016 [35 favorites]

Oct 31 NYT Op-Ed by Paul Krugman:

But Mr. Comey was subjected to a constant barrage of demands that he prosecute her for … something. He should simply have said no. Instead, even while announcing back in July that no charges would be filed, he editorialized about her conduct — a wholly inappropriate thing to do, but probably an attempt to appease the right.

It didn’t work, of course. They just demanded more. And it looks as if he tried to buy them off by throwing them a bone just a few days before the election. Whether it will matter politically remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: he destroyed his own reputation.

When HRC wins the presidency -- and let's say he can avoid prosecution under the Hatch Act, which is by no means certain -- how can Comey remain in his position? How can she trust that his briefings will be true and unbiased? How will that work when she refuses to trust him and repeatedly turns to his #2 and #3?
posted by Short Attention Sp at 5:09 AM on October 31, 2016 [34 favorites]

how can Comey remain in his position?

He can't, and he shouldn't. He's demonstrated himself either a partisan hack, or too stupid not to be manipulated by obvious partisan hacks. This is a career ender, it's just a matter of how long after the election before he can be replaced.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

Honestly it sounds like the rot in the FBI goes pretty deep. The Director and apparently the SAC in NYC seem like a minimum in terms of purging.
posted by vuron at 5:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

From the "CNN is saying" link:

FBI officials don't yet know how many of the emails are duplicates of emails they already have reviewed as part of the Clinton email server investigation and whether any of them may contain classified information.

Investigators believe it's likely the newly recovered trove will include emails that were deleted from the Clinton server before the FBI took possession of it as part of that earlier investigation.

"officials don't know" and "investigators believe" are both fancy restaurant talk for nothingburger. (Roll 4d20 multiplier as this is specifically regarding Clinton Derangement Intellectual Property, or CDIP. )

What CNN is saying is; a repeat that they found what appears to be Huma's email on her estranged husband's computer. (While investigating him on unrelated Weiner charges.)
That's it for established, verifiable facts.

The rest is "we dunno. Maybe something? Maybe nothing. It kinda looks like a burger if you hold it this way.", or as you Amaihricahnz say, "le journalism".
posted by petebest at 5:23 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

Voted in Maryland on Saturday - there's a chance of work travel or family travel next week, and I didn't want to chance *anything*. NO line at all, but a very well staffed polling place (where they said "hurry in before the line starts up again", leading me to believe they were super busy earlier). Was in and out in less than 10 minutes with my sticker. We voted on paper ballots that we fed into those giant scanners, and I can't shake the image of how MUCH it looked like a shred bin :/

I've read every. single. one. of these threads. I haven't been able to bear the idea of commenting for some reason. I have so MUCH anxiety about this election, the endless drumbeat of news, the racist, xenophobic, homophobic and misogynistic rhetoric - it's so ugly and upsetting that I'm crying just trying to explain it. But it's been helpful for me at times to come back to MeFi and catch up on these threads and be reminded that there's a whole other side to the story, and that it can actually be a conversation if people just try.
posted by ersatzkat at 5:34 AM on October 31, 2016 [85 favorites]

I think it finally hit me today, why this election is so disorienting. It's the pervasive, so ever-present you can hardly detect it abnormalization of Clinton and normalization of Trump. When it is discovered that emails she did not send or receive are being examined by the FBI, this is somehow evidence of her acts of criminal conspiracy. Meanwhile, nearly every day brings new allegations of sexual assault against Trump; these are essentially dismissed out of hand. His abuse of power and acts of fraud are far more egregious than Clinton's -- a simple comparison of their charitable foundations show a stark difference. He has two separate, unbelievably damning civil trials coming in the next two months. One, almost unbelievably, concerning charges of child rape. And yet the conversation centers on the FBI examining emails that were -- again, for emphasis -- not sent to or by Hillary.

It's a national gaslighting.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 5:35 AM on October 31, 2016 [235 favorites]

My wife finally decided to apply for citizenship because of the prospect of a Trump presidency. She's been here long enough that she didn't have to apply as my wife. So she went to the interview and passed all of civics portion but the interviewer decided she failed the personal part. She said the number of years married correctly, but faltered when asked if she was sure. She was also confused by what her job was before. Before what? She asked. Well , I wasn't there but the interviewer rejected her application.

That's terrible. I did the exact same thing this year for the exact same reason. The interviewer didn't ask me any official questions (that I can recall anyway) other than the civics ones, but rather went through my application with me and chatted about a few things and had me write and say a sentence. I will think of your wife when I vote for Hillary, so she at least gets to vote in spirit.

In other news, I was personally threatened and threats were issued against my dogs this past weekend, by a Trumpkin Facebook acquaintance (whom I do see in person occasionally) after I unfriended him after he made one too many disgusting ad hominem comments on a pro-Hillary post of mine. PERSONAL THREATS. THREATS AGAINST MY DOGS. Because I unfriended him on Facebook. A personal, walking example of what is wrong with so many Trump supporters: threats against me and my family, misogyny and personal insults because he disagrees with my politics.

Next Tuesday can't come soon enough (I just hope I don't have to move back to Canada afterwards). And the shitshow dumpster fire that has been 2016 can go fuck itself.
posted by biscotti at 5:38 AM on October 31, 2016 [63 favorites]

Moments After Learning Of Comey Letter, Clinton Was Calm And Cool
posted by Room 641-A at 5:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

vuron: Trump, Bush, et al are allowed to delete emails with impunity because a)they are Republicans and b)they aren't female and c)not named Clinton

Colin Powell used an AOL account for his personal email, deleted all the emails when he left the job, and some of the emails were later found (reconstructed from emails sent from State Dept. servers by aides) to contain information now classified as "Secret" or "Confidential."
posted by bluecore at 5:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [41 favorites]

> "She said the number of years married correctly, but faltered when asked if she was sure. She was also confused by what her job was before. Before what? She asked. Well , I wasn't there but the interviewer rejected her application."

Holy crap. Even already knowing that the process really is just that f*cking arbitrary, it infuriates me that the process is just that f*cking arbitrary.
posted by kyrademon at 5:46 AM on October 31, 2016 [31 favorites]

Francis To say Bill Clinton didn't fight is ridiculous.

If you think Bill "triangulation" Clinton, Bill "third way" Clinton, Bill "end of welfare as we know it" Clinton, Bill "crime bill" Clinton, is a good example of a Democrat who stood up to Republicans we obviously have extremely different definitions of what fighting means.
posted by sotonohito at 5:46 AM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

The GOP Is Gearing Up To Block ANY Clinton Nominee To The Supreme Court
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:48 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Colin Powell used an AOL account for his personal email, deleted all the emails when he left the job, and some of the emails were later found (reconstructed from emails sent from State Dept. servers by aides) to contain information now classified as "Secret" or "Confidential."

Link pls? I found this Feb 2016 Newsweek article but it doesnt mention the reconstruction part.
posted by petebest at 5:51 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Bill "end of welfare as we know it" Clinton

I get that you don't like anyone to the right of Castro but the fucking comment you quoted from pointed out that the welfare bill was a veto proof majority after vetoing it twice.
posted by Talez at 5:51 AM on October 31, 2016 [31 favorites]

It didn’t work, of course.

I'm really trying to wrap my head around whether this is a sign of naivete (in the FBI Director? That just seems like a bizarre trait) or extreme myopia or something else, because... have you met the Republican leadership, bro? They have no personal loyalty, no actual ideology and no principles. If you tell them 100% of what they want to hear, you are a true American hero and patriot; if you tell them anything they don't like, even if you try to wrap it up in conciliatory mealy-mouthiness, you are the cause of everything that is wrong with America and the world. You can go from one pole to the other overnight because it's not based on logic or principles.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

It's harder to get your agenda through Congress if your Presidential candidates never get elected.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:53 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

The GOP Is Gearing Up To Block ANY Clinton Nominee To The Supreme Court

This is obviously infuriating, but I think it's probably a smart thing to leak into the news to support down ballot candidates. Gives motivation for single issue pro-life voters who can't stomach the top of the ticket to vote for GOP senate candidates.

Last election megathread I expressed some hesitation on the wisdom of nuking the filibuster for supreme court noms. I've changed my mind.
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:55 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Spotted this morning: A car covered in zombie-related memes ("DON'T OPEN, DEAD INSIDE" "I'D RATHER BE KILLING ZOMBIES" etc....) plus one "Make America Great Again" Trump sticker.

Subtle meta-commentary, or just another dude really itching for a legitimate reason to kill other human beings? You decide.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:59 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Hi honey-bunny!

The interviewer didn't ask me any official questions (that I can recall anyway) other than the civics ones, but rather went through my application with me and chatted about a few things and had me write and say a sentence.

Going over the application is the personal part; the interviewers have lots of room to be dicks about people's responses if they want to, including turning just verifying the address etc into an ugly interrogation. HENCE MY PARANOIA! John G Roberts junior
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 6:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Re immigration denial, is there an appeals process?
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:05 AM on October 31, 2016

One could ask the same question about George Will (age 75), Chris "Tweety" Matthews (70), and any number of other pundits and media figures who seem to have attitudes and mentalities that are stuck in the 1970s and 80s. Will all of these people keep appearing in major media outlets until they literally drop dead?

Why do you think that death is an impediment? They'll just wheel out George Will's desiccated corpse on the Sunday morning talk shows for the next 100 years.
posted by indubitable at 6:07 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Re immigration denial, is there an appeals process?

Yes (your notice of denial will have the necessary info), but, it might also be faster to just re-file. Neither will be processed before election day, unfortunately.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Re immigration denial, is there an appeals process?

Yes but dealing with this sort of thing it's always better to use a lawyer. The lawyer may recommend cancelling and refiling the N-400 rather than going down the N-336 path.
posted by Talez at 6:11 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Subtle meta-commentary, or just another dude really itching for a legitimate reason to kill other human beings? You decide.

That's actually a thing, yeah. There's a subset of survivalists that have decided to sort of gamify the whole thing by couching it in zombie apocalypse terms. If you search around you'll find a lot of zombie-themed groups and articles that obsess over procedures for making and maintaining "bug-out bags", stockpiling canned goods and jugs of potable water, etc., all for worst-case-scenario preparedness.

You may recall that back in the '80s there was an unspoken law of video game development that you could only make games that featured killing as a part of the gameplay if the bad guys were robots, Nazis, or alien/monster. In that same vein, yeah, it's very possible that for many of them the zombie fixation is not just about using a popular end-of-the-world setting for understanding survivalism, but also enjoying the very attractive possibility that they might finally get to shoot people in the head without being arrested or morally culpable. Fun!
posted by middleclasstool at 6:15 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Talez I get that you don't like anyone to the right of Castro but the fucking comment you quoted from pointed out that the welfare bill was a veto proof majority after vetoing it twice.

Is there a reason why you're being so highly unpleasant?

Bill Clinton was using the phrase "end of welfare as we know it" in 1992, four years before the welfare reform bill was passed. He **CAMPAIGNED** on the idea of destroying welfare. Here's an actual campaign ad from Clinton where he's advocating destroying welfare.

And, surrendering at the last moment when they have a veto proof majority isn't fighting, it's surrendering. Veto it and let it be law without your signature, that's fighting. You still lose but at least you go down fighting.

Worse though, Bill Clinton, after everything the Republicans did to him, kept up with his empirically repudiated but apparently held at a religious level believe that if he could just surrender enough, just keep giving them enough of what they wanted, the Republicans would be nice to him.

It's the same unfathomable attitude that has poisoned the entire Obama administration, this utterly unfounded belief that the Republicans can be appeased and then they'll act like reasonable people.

I sincerely hope that Clinton learns from the humiliating failures of her husband and Obama and makes it clear from day one that she is not going to be playing the appeasement game with the Republicans.
posted by sotonohito at 6:15 AM on October 31, 2016 [41 favorites]

Sou you're gonna commemorate the death of a costitutional literalist by inventing crap to blow off Obama's obvious presidential prerogative?
posted by farlukar at 6:18 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

have you met the Republican leadership, bro? They have no personal loyalty, no actual ideology and no principles.... You can go from one pole to the other overnight because it's not based on logic or principles.

That's not really true. There is a reductionist principle regarding the acquisition of power. The formulation of the principle involves ends, means, and justification.
posted by perspicio at 6:39 AM on October 31, 2016

I'd be more sympathetic to the FOIA argument if its main proponents (such as Judicial Watchhunt) weren't people who declared 24 years ago that Hillary Clinton wasn't entitled to any privacy whatsoever, and that she'd brought upon herself a lifetime of legal bullshit designed to embarrass and humiliate her.

Why would those tactics ring a bell in 2016, given what's happened over the past couple of years? It's as if Larry Klayman was the original vindictive doxxer.
posted by holgate at 6:41 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

Apologies if someone's already said this upthread, but: at least now we will get a definitive answer to whether the fabled oppo droppo is still out there waiting to be droppoed
posted by saturday_morning at 6:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I usually don't do the fanfic stuff, or enjoy it, but the "deleted personal emails on Huma Abedin's computer" really asks for it:

Dearest Huma,

I know this is the 2464th time I've written this to you (I checked), but please dump that MF of a husband you have already. He is an idiot and a liability. I know you keep on saying that you are following my lead on this, but trust me, I wouldn't stay if I were in your shoes.

Lets have that coffee, soon

Hil
posted by mumimor at 6:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

petebest: Link pls? I found this Feb 2016 Newsweek article but it doesnt mention the reconstruction part.

MEMORANDUM FOR UNDER SECRETARY KENNEDY

FROM: OIG - Steve A Linick
SUBJECT: FINAL: CLASSIFIED MATERIAL DISCOVERED IN UNCLASSIFIED ARCHIVAL
MATERIAL (ESP-16-02)
posted by bluecore at 6:47 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

HILLARY CLINTON AND THE POPULIST REVOLT - George Packer with a wide ranging look at Clinton's career and policies, and how she can fit the political moment.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:52 AM on October 31, 2016

California’s Darrell Issa, in a once-safe Republican seat, finds himself on the ropes

North County Minutemen are facing a challenge this time.
posted by Talez at 6:56 AM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

a minimum in terms of purging.

Please lets not with the Stalin-y stuff?
posted by dersins at 6:58 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Show trials for everyone!

Show trials for some! Miniature American flags for others!
posted by Talez at 7:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [31 favorites]

And, surrendering at the last moment when they have a veto proof majority isn't fighting, it's surrendering. Veto it and let it be law without your signature, that's fighting. You still lose but at least you go down fighting.

The only thing people win by going down fighting is a gravestone. Possibly a posthumous decoration. But to follow your advice would mean Washington would have fought rather than retreated at the Battle of White Planes - and would certainly not have wintered up at Valley Forge.

You are advocating going down fighting - and probably losing the White House in 1996.

Worse though, Bill Clinton, after everything the Republicans did to him, kept up with his empirically repudiated but apparently held at a religious level believe that if he could just surrender enough, just keep giving them enough of what they wanted, the Republicans would be nice to him.

Not even close. Bill Clinton made the Republicans take what ground they took inch by inch. Surrendering as little ground with each step as he could. This despite the help of Democrats like Joseph Lieberman - and the way Al Gore ran away from him in 2000.

And if you want to look at how much he fought, Bill Clinton stands, I believe, second only to FDR in total number of active Presidential vetoes issued in history (not counting pocket vetoes). Of those bills two had the veto overriden. That's not "If he could just surrender enough" - that's "Keeping a small beleagered force alive and doing as much with it as he could. And doing it with a smile because a smile is a weapon for a politician".
posted by Francis at 7:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [26 favorites]

The Vengeful World of Donald Trump, and Why It Matters: "What happens on Nov. 9 is anyone's guess, but some of these trend lines of mainstreaming and broadening bigotry and incidents of violence and hints of a dark conspiracy are very concerning," Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, said in an interview.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:02 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

The woman who played the girl in the "Daisy" ad is back, scaring everyone again
posted by salix at 7:06 AM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

Joe Scarborough is gonna be piiissseed.

Good. Spineless fucker.
posted by Yowser at 7:08 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Overcoming loss in the middle of a historic campaign: As we drive to the airport I google acute leukemia. There are two major kinds and her chances of surviving either are not good. I steel myself for her long cancer battle. I thought the hardest thing I would deal with in 2016 was covering the election. It was a reasonable assumption. I have no idea that by noon tomorrow she will be gone.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:13 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Also:
If you think Bill "triangulation" Clinton, Bill "third way" Clinton, Bill "end of welfare as we know it" Clinton, Bill "crime bill" Clinton, is a good example of a Democrat who stood up to Republicans we obviously have extremely different definitions of what fighting means.

I think Bill "the first Democrat to win the Presidency in 24 years without an assist from Watergate" fought Republicans and won on the battlefield that matters. I think Bill "First Democrat to win two Presidential elections since FDR" Clinton was a master fighter in a tight spot. Yes, you would have a lot more banner waving and more of the behaviours you want from a Mondale or a McGovern. Remind me how many Electoral College votes the two of them managed between them?

I think Bill "vetoed the Welfare Reform Bill twice and got the three worst provisions removed" Clinton was fighting when he managed to get serious roll-back on the Welfare Reform Bill. And then he was still fighting as he claimed the credit for it despite having been forced into it - thus denying the Republicans any political capital.

Yes we have very different definitions of what fighting means. I think it means leaving the enemy battered, bleeding, and not giving them a victory you don't have to - but staying in there right to the end. And that waving a banner around and going down like a chump is posing rather than fighting. And that Mohammed Ali didn't beat George Foreman by getting into a slugging match with him.
posted by Francis at 7:14 AM on October 31, 2016 [53 favorites]

In case you need this, but I think everyone needs this: 17 Ways To Practice Self-Care During This Election Season
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:18 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

The woman who played the girl in the "Daisy" ad is back yt , scaring everyone again

I was feeling pretty calm until I watched this ad. Listening to what he says, his entitled, arrogant attitude and utterly ignorant understanding of how the world works elicits a feeling of deep rage and frustration at all of the people who think this man is amazing.

I've moved beyond being scared that he'll get elected somehow to just feeling generally angry about it all.
posted by Jalliah at 7:20 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Haha I took ya'll's advice and told my sis that I'd send the Democrats or Planned Parenthood a dollar for every nasty text. And also told her that I'd like to keep being friends which is why I don't send her angry political texts so could she do the same?

I've been ignoring this from her for a while, so I'm getting to the out-of-fucks-to-give stage. She never texts me "hey what's up?" just ARGLEBARGLE CROOKED HILLARY b.s. so what would I be losing.

Nothing like massive national upheaval to show up all the gaping problems in your family relationships.
posted by emjaybee at 7:26 AM on October 31, 2016 [75 favorites]

Yesterday I noted Trump's number at electoral-vote.com. Trump is down again, this time losing 3 electoral votes, down to 188 electoral votes. It's from Alaska having gone from Likely GOP to Barely Dem.
posted by cashman at 7:26 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I've moved beyond being scared that he'll get elected somehow to just feeling generally angry about it all.

Yeah I've been trying to let mad and sad balance each other out for days.

I cannot fucking believe any traction is still being given to the emails thing, while the misogynist silver-spoon fascist landlord huckster blathers on and on.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:29 AM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

Bryan Cranston Says He Will Move to Canada if Donald Trump Becomes President

So, uh, we're all with Mr. White then.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:38 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I cannot fucking believe any traction is still being given to the emails thing, while the misogynist silver-spoon fascist landlord huckster blathers on and on.

Not to mention the sad young House Speaker whose eyes are so blue you could lose your mum's social security check in them.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:39 AM on October 31, 2016 [38 favorites]

Particularly frustrated that the cover of the WP is still emailsFBIemails this morning, with three misleading headlines burying the lede that in each case there is nothing there.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:40 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Bryan Cranston Says He Will Move to Canada if Donald Trump Becomes President

I'm sorry, but what's my name?

I'm sorry, is it Heisenberg?

You're goddamn I'm sorry right.
posted by maxsparber at 7:41 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

(real) @KarlRove says FBI Director James Comey was "wrong in July and was wrong on Friday."
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

Of course Cranston was all for Trump earlier.

“Even if I disagreed, I think it’s great that there’s a groundswell of thoughts and ideas,” the “Breaking Bad” actor told The Daily Beast while promoting the new movie “Trumbo.” “I think it’s great that Donald Trump is in the mix. He’s a maverick. He says what he wants to say, and it forces the other candidates to be more real, more honest and more open. That’s what’s getting through to the people — that this guy doesn’t give a shit and just says what he wants to say. But as his campaign is going along, you notice that Trump is getting more and more conservative in his speech and his policy, getting a little more controlled, and conforming. He’s becoming a politician, which is an interesting thing to see.”
posted by winna at 7:47 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Bryan Cranston Says He Will Move to Canada if Donald Trump Becomes President

This is such an annoying trope. First off, the people saying this are typically rich white folks who are performing hypothetical future despair.

Secondly, Canada isn't just America's hat, it's an actual country and not a blank canvas for aforementioned performances of despair by wealthy Americans.

Thirdly, if you have privilege and things get bad, maybe consider staying to work to make things better for those that can't get quick entertainment-industry work visas.

Fourthly, if Trump is elected, you're not going to be all that much safer in Vancouver than you were in Ventura.

Fifthly, take a chill pill and go look at the PEC charts again.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:47 AM on October 31, 2016 [49 favorites]

Sent in my overseas ballot today with the same mixture of satisfaction and frustration I always feel. My ballot goes to Kings County (Brooklyn) and so will get lost in the sea of Hillary blue. But man is it nice to see the ballot, and fill it out and send it off.

To back-track a whole bunch up to Harry Reid's response to the wacky e-mail non-discovery (on NPR there was an interesting, more fleshed out interpretation to the whole thing, basically pointing out how Comey was between a rock and a stupid place and picked the only move he really had, which was a crap move) - OK, back to Reid, wait, let me get my special neuron-killing-ray-proof hat, OK, so, what if Trump really is a puppet of the Putin AND what if so is Farage! Genius, right?! So Farage fucks the UK and now Putin tries to get Trump to do the same to the US, the refugee crisis was a great way to stick it to continental europe and so, boy. Putin's been having a grand old time, hasn't he?
I know, it's ridiculous, too ridiculous even for 2016. Next someone will say the Cubs are gonna take the World Series...
posted by From Bklyn at 7:47 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I was the one who knocked, yes. Do you have a spare moment to discuss something?
posted by Behemoth at 7:47 AM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

California’s Darrell Issa, in a once-safe Republican seat, finds himself on the ropes

This would be great, Issa is a cancer on America.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:48 AM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

The (c) emails were confidential, not classified.]

I am forced by intelligent professional nerd pedantry to point out that confidential is in fact a classification level. But I think it's also useful to note that while I get irritated by Hillary Clinton's treatment of classified information on the regular, I also essentially grew up in the intelligence community. My first military posting was attached to the NSA, and I worked in that field for eight years. So the stuff is kind of automatic second nature to me, whereas it might not have been for a political appointee suddenly using classified protocols.
posted by corb at 7:54 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

If Werner Herzog is feeling calm about this election instead of descending into an abyss of nihilism and despair, then maybe we can dial down the JCPL a notch?

"I’m not worried. You see the opinion polls, and I do believe in the collective intelligence and responsibilities of voters that are always more intelligent than opinion polls. Unfortunately, I cannot vote. I’m not a citizen. I wish I could vote in this particular election. {...} Are you American? You’d better go and vote! Cast your ballot! Too many Americans do not go to cast their ballots. It should be much higher and then we would have probably much less worries as a nation."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:58 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

Bryan Cranston Says He Will Move to Canada if Donald Trump Becomes President

I am a naturalized US citizen. And I burned my bridges and did not apply for dual citizenship when I did that. I'll openly admit that the latter decision is one I made without any inkling that Cheeto Benito would come close to being elected POTUS, and that this has made me have many a second thought.

Still. Don't fucking say that, people. It's not like Canada is committed to letting y'all come and work there.
posted by ocschwar at 7:59 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

If Werner Herzog is feeling calm about this election instead of descending into an abyss of nihilism and despair, then maybe we can dial down the JCPL a notch?

Smoke jumpers are a lot calmer about forest fires than the rest of us are.

Doesn't mean we should be as calm as they are.
posted by ocschwar at 8:00 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Burhanistan, I'm not quite sure I could draw a nice distinct line between a character actor and a TV political analyst :)
posted by Static Vagabond at 8:03 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

You may recall that back in the '80s there was an unspoken law of video game development that you could only make games that featured killing as a part of the gameplay if the bad guys were robots, Nazis, or alien/monster.

Even in this century, there was moral outrage when a modern version of head-to-head type FPS game that had mostly featured real world armies from historic wars included included Al Qaeda, you know, the people the Army was actually fighting. As if their ideal game would be one in which the US Army ran around committing and endless string of friendly fire incidents of British and Canadian troops. At least with robots, zombies and Nazis you don't get that kind of pointless moral outrage.

Similarly FEMA actually took notice that Dungeons and Dragons has sold more copies than the Boy Scout Emergency Preparedness Merit Badge Handbook and used to zombie trope as a means of gamifying emergency preparedness.

The problem is that the "rugged individualist types" (cue Gene Wilder saying, "you know, morons") have latched onto this and have been humping it's leg hard in the naive belief that civilization is what is holding them back.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 8:03 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

Sorry, I've seen way too many disasters literally around me in my personal life and neighborhood that came directly from welfare reform. Welfare "reform" was a disgustingly immortal project, sold to us based on lies by people who had ample resources to know better. If either Clinton was so hot on preserving social benefits, they shouldn't have stanned for any kind of welfare reform at all. It's the "there are WMDs in Iraq" of the Clinton administration.
posted by Frowner at 8:03 AM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

As a poll worker, I elected to vote by mail so that there would be no chance I would miss early voting. But mailing off my ballot felt a bit anticlimactic for me, so I was thrilled to tag along when my husband went to vote this Saturday. There was a short line, it was a smooth process, and both voters and staff were full of enthusiasm.

On our way home, we ran into a group of women taking selfies with their "I voted" stickers. I offered to take a picture for them and they told me they were three generations of women (plus two infant granddaughters) who decided to all go together to vote for the first female president. One of the moms said she was going to put that picture in her daughter's baby book.

That interaction just filled me with hope. Even in my very red state, women are coming out in full force and bringing the kids along.
posted by galvanized unicorn at 8:04 AM on October 31, 2016 [87 favorites]

Man, with the hilarious emails development, the Trump's Mirror situation is getting so ridiculous that maybe someone should ask to see his long-form birth certificate, just in case.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:10 AM on October 31, 2016 [25 favorites]

Welfare "reform" was a disgustingly immortal project

best typo today
posted by thelonius at 8:10 AM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

If you want to yell at the TV, Peter Thiel is livestreaming his rationale for Trump support.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:11 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Texas Tribune is tracking early voting in Texas, and it is still putting more and more distance between 2016 and the numbers from 2012. When the first few days showed a large surge, people wondered if it was just a case of voters 'wanting to vote and be done with it' given the contentious election season. However just eyeballing it, it appears that in the largest 10 Texas counties early voting totals continue to set records every day, by huge margins. I think if you were arguing that voting was just skewing early so people can take their mind off of it, you'd start to see a decline by now.
posted by DynamiteToast at 8:14 AM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

Trump will appoint a SCOTUS that repeals women's right to vote, and will cripple the news media.

Of course Thiel loves the guy.
posted by Yowser at 8:14 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

I get irritated by Hillary Clinton's treatment of classified information on the regular

Someone at State in the Ops or Public Affairs emails you something where they talk-around classified information to provide awareness. What was she supposed to do. She never originated any of this, and since it came over the Internet, it didn't come from SIPRnet.
posted by mikelieman at 8:17 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you want to yell at the TV, Peter Thiel is livestreaming his rationale for Trump support.

FFS, why is "random rich asshole supports Trump" considered news? I'd rather watch Martin Shkreli's youtube channel, at least he's a decent teacher of math and biology topics.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:19 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Peter Thiel is livestreaming his rationale for Trump support.

Nah, I'm good.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [53 favorites]

Can I just say that I think it's pretty bullshit that the only classification marking on a classified email would be the letter "C"? I mean, that is actually pretty ambiguous and easy to miss, for such an important piece of metadata. Why is it not required to be "THIS DOCUMENT IS CLASSIFIED AT THE 'CONFIDENTIAL' LEVEL" or something else that's suitably difficult to ignore, miss when skimming, or misinterpret as a typo?

That would be bullshit if it was true. An actually properly classified email first would never have been sent to Hillary Clinton's email server (they have a separate network for classified documents) and second starts off with a header that can be paraphrased THIS DOCUMENT IS CLASSIFIED AT THE XXX LEVEL! DO NOT SHARE.

Within a formally written classified document the paragraphs frequently have a marking of their own to show what level the paragraph itself is classified at, so the readers of it know what they can share to whom. So every paragraph starts (U), (C), (S), or whatever. But this only actually applies within a document that is classified.

However classified information in unclassified documents is still a spill and the entire document should be classified because of it.
posted by Francis at 8:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'd rather watch Martin Shkreli's youtube channel

Maybe he'll play Once Upon a Time in Shaolin
posted by beerperson at 8:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

Just did my first phone banking for Democrats Abroad! A couple of minor issues perplexed me at first, but once I got the gist, it was kind of like playing a weird game where I awarded myself points for making calls, getting information across clearly, etc.
posted by kyrademon at 8:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

Right now Thiel is railing against corrupt elites and free market ideology (?) Weird for an outspoken libertarian. Guess it's free markets inside the fiefdom, protectionism at the border.

He's finished speaking, and didn't give a single concrete reason why he thinks Trump would be a better President. Just polemic against Clinton/Bush/etc. And of course some "wah, Silicon Valley doesn't really like diversity 'cause they don't like me" rhetoric.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:23 AM on October 31, 2016

Talking about emails and classification levels again is fun, but for a change of pace, can we re-litigate the primaries for a while?
posted by diogenes at 8:25 AM on October 31, 2016 [47 favorites]

Absentee voting in Mississippi is a sad joke. We are one of two states where you can't just go online to apply for getting an absentee ballot--you must call. And I mailed it off with joy, but as far as I can tell, there's no obvious method by which you can check to see if it was ever received and recorded, much less get a nice text that it was. All by design, I'm sure. Our governor is a horror, our representatives are retrograde and ignorant. It's an evil, gleeful race to the bottom, and guess what, we're already here.
posted by thebrokedown at 8:26 AM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

Francis I think Bill "vetoed the Welfare Reform Bill twice and got the three worst provisions removed" Clinton was fighting when he managed to get serious roll-back on the Welfare Reform Bill. And then he was still fighting as he claimed the credit for it despite having been forced into it - thus denying the Republicans any political capital.

If you're going to claim every loss as a victory, how is anyone supposed to know what you really care about or believe?

Why do I think Bill Clinton wanted what he got? BECAUSE HE SAID HE DID!

What else am I supposed to do, pretend I'm a mind reader? Just assume that he really truly does value the same things I do despite claiming the destruction of those things is a victory and running a campaign around destroying those things?

There's this perverse ideology that's very popular among liberals which claims that to ever admit that you were beaten is somehow the worst thing ever. I cannot disagree strongly enough with that view.

If Bill Clinton really opposed welfare reform, well he shouldn't have campaigned on it. Again, that "end of welfare as we know it" campaign ad from Clinton predated the 1996 bill by four years. Clearly it is not true that he really supported welfare and was forced by the Republicans into gutting it, he literally made ending welfare a central part of his campaign.

If your position was that the best we could get is a surrender first DINO who was marginally, razor thin, better than an open Republican, I could see that.

But you can't tell me a shit sandwich is really delicious just because the only alternative is a mouthful of broken glass and razor blades. Yes, I'd rather have the shit sandwich, but it's still a shit sandwich.

Maybe you believe in a double secret 11 dimensional chess plan on Bill Clinton's part that mandated he run on destroying welfare, indulge in racist fear mongering, and claim every defeat as a victory. To me that doesn't look like a real fighter doing his best, it looks like a guy who doesn't know how to fight.

Claiming everything as a victory, even the worst defeats, is a really awful idea that just leaves everyone assuming the outcome that happened is what you want. Even assuming that you're right and it was just super double secret opposition, I think you can see why I might assume he didn't bother fighting when, literally, every damn thing that happened got paraded around as the greatest victory for the Democrats that has ever happened.
posted by sotonohito at 8:27 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

I do believe in the collective intelligence and responsibilities of voters that are always more intelligent than opinion polls

Never has there been a stupider bet to take than the collective intelligence and sense of responsibility of the American voter.

Case in point: 2004 election. They fell for swiftboating hook, line, and sinker.

I'm not going to stop unclenching my asshole until November 9th and I won't unclench the rest of me until I see her sworn in as Madame President.
posted by Talez at 8:28 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Or maybe I'll have to settle for re-litigating Bill's legacy.
posted by diogenes at 8:29 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

The Texas Tribune is tracking early voting in Texas

The NY Times has more early voting data neatly visualized.
posted by peeedro at 8:30 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'm really annoyed at PA's stubborn refusal to allow early voting. Canvassing this weekend, I talked to three people (out of maybe only like 10-15 folks who were actually home when I came by, so that's a pretty large percentage) who had someone in the household who was going to be out of town on election day. I actually couldn't even give advice on it because absentee ballots weren't part of my training and I never thought to look it up on my own--my bad.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:34 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

The NY Times has more early voting data neatly visualized.

Young voters, between 18 and 29 years old, have decreased across the board

HFI@#$HF(EHKDHSG
posted by Talez at 8:36 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Just want to say: I voted! Felt so good.
posted by sandettie light vessel automatic at 8:39 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Nevada’s Early Vote Numbers Have Hillary Clinton Supporters Thrilled

If she takes Nevada, she could lose every other swing state and still win the presidency.

posted by kirkaracha at 8:39 AM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

On topic, I suspect everyone but the most hardcore Republicans just ignores anything that involves Clinton's emails these days.

It means nothing, everyone knows it, they just sigh and ignore it as yet more jabber.

As far as I'm conerned the whole issue is pointless because the way the US government handles secrecy is so stupidly broad and clearly designed not from a standpoint of protecting actual important secrets but just making everything they possibly can secret out of some perverse control freak desire that I literally would cheer if every "secret" document the US had was released.

The biggest, most amazing, most breathtaking thing I learned from the Snowden leak was how completely banal, boring, and entirely unworthy of being kept secret most American "secrets" are.

If Clinton was sloppy with secret documents, I say she should have been. The entire thing is just so unbearably stupid and pointless I can't see how anyone could ever get worked up over it. And while I suspect most Americans don't hold my unwavering contempt for the very idea of government secrets, I know that most of them have heard about Clinton's email so often that they just don't are.

Comey tried to sabotage Clinton's campaign in the dumbest way he possibly could have.

For that he shouldn't be permitted to resign, he should be fired in the most public, humiliating, possible way. Not just for his decision to repay the (foolhardy, totally awful idea) gift of being the Republican in Obama's cabinet, but for the stupidity of how he decided to betray Obama. That sort of epic idiocy deserves a special kind of punishment.

And it should be the end of this very bad tradition of giving certain cabinet posts to Republicans because apparently no Democrat can ever be worthy of them and they belong by divine right to the Republicans.

I hope that Clinton's cabinet and all of her appointments are the most loyal, Yellow Dog partisan, Democrats she can find. Not one Republican. Not anywhere.
posted by sotonohito at 8:41 AM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

Katy Tur at Newsweek: Donald Trump's companies destroyed emails and documents in defiance of court orders
posted by msalt at 8:41 AM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

Press reports have also noted a dramatic gap between the parties’ respective get-out-the-vote operations.

On Saturday, for instance, reporters found that Democrats in Reno had six different staging areas for volunteers, each expected to draw over 100 people. On the same day, a visit to the city’s local Republican headquarters turned up just five people.

Before Trump’s rally in Las Vegas on Sunday, speakers informed the estimated crowd of 8,000 that buses would be available to take them to early voting sites after the event. But reporters couldn’t easily find the buses.

In the end, all they turned up were two vans that brought about 20 people to the polls.

posted by kirkaracha at 8:41 AM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

Bryan Cranston Says He Will Move to Canada if Donald Trump Becomes President

A few weeks ago, one of my kids asked me if we would move away if Trump won. I told him no, because:

1. Honestly, it's not practical. We don't have the means. But more importantly:

2. Our government is set up in such a way that the president does not have unlimited powers. Even if Trump were president, he'd have congress, the states, the Supreme Court all checking him. I pointed out that, unlike most presidents, he wouldn't even have the support of his own party members in the house and senate. A Trump presidency would be bad, but it wouldn't be a Trump dictatorship. There would be resistance.

3. As a family, we are in a position to be fairly well protected from many of the things that might happen in a Trump presidency. Although we are a mixed-race family, we are predominantly white and part of white community and culture. We have a good measure of financial and job security. People who are more vulnerable than us, I said, need people like us to be here in the US doing what we can to support and protect them. Whatever risks we imagine we would face during a Trump presidency, it's important to remember that there are people who are already facing those risks—and worse. And they need our solidarity and support.
posted by Orlop at 8:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [43 favorites]

The thing that gets me about the Republicans' failure to build a GOTV organization is that elections only come every two years (by and large; I know there are exceptions), and presidential elections every four. One would think that taking a pass on it this year will have a significant impact on efforts to build a GOTV op next time around, too. They'll be suffering from a gap in experience and it'll be that much harder to catch up to the curve on tech developments.

I know it's probably too much to hope for, but damn.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

> Never has there been a stupider bet to take than the collective intelligence and sense of responsibility of the American voter.

That's the basic idea of having a democratic republic as form of government. I'm not always happy with who we end up electing, and I gripe about the details of our electoral system, but I'm not in favor of replacing it with a non-Democratic one. Democracy is a good thing.
posted by nangar at 8:55 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

If you're going to claim every loss as a victory, how is anyone supposed to know what you really care about or believe?

I hope you aren't a poker player? Or a fighter of any sort - you'd never be able to deal with any feints of any sort. You watch for where people fight and what they fight about and what they actually do.

If your position was that the best we could get is a surrender first DINO who was marginally, razor thin, better than an open Republican, I could see that.

No. My position is that no one could possibly have been elected in 1992 without waving around Republican banners. And that anyone who tried would have become the new Walter Mondale leaving the Presidency to the Republicans. Again.

He wasn't an open Republican. He was a closet Democrat dressed up in the clothing of a Republican because that was literally what he needed to do in 1992 to win the election just four years post Reagan. And doing what you need to in a hard position is fighting far far harder than simply rushing forwards to obvious defeat.

Before Bill Clinton the Republicans looked like the responsible party and no Democrat had won two Presidential elections since FDR. He blocked them. He stalled them. He wasted their time and effort. And because he survived, and because by the time he was done the Republicans looked like the petty party of abuse of office, you call him not a fighter.

To me that doesn't look like a real fighter doing his best, it looks like a guy who doesn't know how to fight.

To me Bill Clinton looks like someone who won despite the Republicans throwing the kitchen sink at him. Next you'll be telling me that Ali didn't know how to fight because he danced and dodged around at the Rumble in the Jungle - and what looks to you like a fighter is someone who swaggers in and throws punches before going down in the third round. If Bill Clinton had been taken out like Carter in '80 then the argument he didn't know how to fight might have been credible. But when he rolled the Republicans twice at the Presidential level and faced down the Starr Inquiry the idea he doesn't know how to fight is ridiculous even if it was frequently a Fabian strategy.

Claiming everything as a victory, even the worst defeats, is a really awful idea that just leaves everyone assuming the outcome that happened is what you want. Even assuming that you're right and it was just super double secret opposition, I think you can see why I might assume he didn't bother fighting when, literally, every damn thing that happened got paraded around as the greatest victory for the Democrats that has ever happened.

It's an idea that causes chaos and confusion. And yes, I can see why you (along with a lot of Republican leaning members of the electorate) might fall for it. Especially if you weren't paying close attention and haven't gone back to see what was actually done.
posted by Francis at 8:56 AM on October 31, 2016 [30 favorites]

Katy Tur at Newsweek: Donald Trump's companies destroyed emails and documents in defiance of court orders

Katy's been great this cycle, but I think you mean Kurt Eichenwald.
posted by chris24 at 8:58 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

They'll be suffering from a gap in experience and it'll be that much harder to catch up to the curve on tech developments.

A politically-active family member of mine (like, has worked on at least one campaign every 2 years since ~2002) raised a different but related issue. The Republican party (both parties to an extent, but especially the republicans) have a "to the victor go the spoils" system where the cronies of the winning candidate effectively take over the local, state, whatever-level apparatus when they win. The tea party wave actually caused a huge problem for moderate republicans in this sense; not only did they get primaried from the right, as you saw, but they also got cut off from back room fundraising coordination, strategy meetings, etc.

He thinks that with Trump winning the nomination, it's going to be like the tea party on steroids. Crazy Trump supporters (which... yeah) are going to be taking over the R party machinery and completely fucking up the program for moderate / bipartisan outreach. In a way they'll be LUCKY if disengagement and lack of experience is the worst of it.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 9:00 AM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

2. Our government is set up in such a way that the president does not have unlimited powers. Even if Trump were president, he'd have congress, the states, the Supreme Court all checking him. I pointed out that, unlike most presidents, he wouldn't even have the support of his own party members in the house and senate. A Trump presidency would be bad, but it wouldn't be a Trump dictatorship. There would be resistance.

I agree with your other points, but the idea that Trump would be kept in check by a Congress that would likely be GOP-controlled for any realistic scenarios in which Trump would win the Presidency assumes a level of restraint and principled statesmanship that the GOP has never demonstrated. The best case scenario is that Trump is a rubber stamp for the GOP Congress, the worst case is that they're a rubber stamp for him. The points of disagreement between his platform and standard GOP dogma are few in number.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [27 favorites]

2. Our government is set up in such a way that the president does not have unlimited powers. Even if Trump were president, he'd have congress, the states, the Supreme Court all checking him. I pointed out that, unlike most presidents, he wouldn't even have the support of his own party members in the house and senate. A Trump presidency would be bad, but it wouldn't be a Trump dictatorship. There would be resistance.

We don't really have any guarantee that a Republican-controlled House and/or Senate would do anything to check him. To date, most Republican House and Senate members have only voiced token objections to his candidacy and behavior. Most of the Senate and House elders have fallen in line or been unwavering in their support. A Trump administration would stack the Supreme Court with Conservatives.

Would resistance make a difference? I'm not sure it would.
posted by zarq at 9:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

WaPo: Is America addicted to this election?

I can stop any time I want to.
posted by Westringia F. at 9:05 AM on October 31, 2016 [27 favorites]

I talked to my parents yesterday, and they said that they and my brother were interested in making calls for Hillary, and thanks to these threads, I said, without first-hand experience but with confidence that you can call whenever and wherever you like, with Hillary's online calling system/ guide. This morning, I shared the link from kristi's post in a prior thread

The MeFites United team at the Hillary for America online call tool is now live!

To join, go to https://www.hillaryclinton.com/calls/teams/d89cb034-6558-412a-a5ee-53ff258b3425/ .

The tool gives you everything you need to get started, and you can even do a practice session if you want.

My brother said he's in, but he had trouble signing up, and he'll try again later. I'll join (finally!) and my parents may join, too. Thanks to kristi for setting up the group, and for writing up some notes on what to expect.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:07 AM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

Our government is set up in such a way that the president does not have unlimited powers. . . A Trump presidency would be bad, but it wouldn't be a Trump dictatorship.

I don't think you've been listening enough. Trump is anti democracy. He rejects basic tenets like abiding by election results. He has no interest in preserving our constitution or governmental checks. His most admired list are people who are out and out dictators.

There is a lot more at stake than which party wins the White House next Tuesday. Trump is the biggest threat to our democracy this country has ever seen. Once people like him get power, good luck getting your democracy back. Not to mention the elemental threat Trump poses to every person who is a minority.
posted by bearwife at 9:10 AM on October 31, 2016 [46 favorites]

Last election megathread I expressed some hesitation on the wisdom of nuking the filibuster for supreme court noms. I've changed my mind.

I'm pinning my hopes on a senate majority and being close enough in the house that they're able to get some good work done and build some momentum going into the mid-terms where, I hope, that the typical pattern reverses itself and the dems pick up more seats in the senate and flip the house so that they have a shot at undoing all the gerrymandering and, I hope, reforming that process to keep it from happening again.

I hope that 2020 turns into the final nail in the coffin for the GOP so that by the time 2024 comes around, the nominee from the "conservative" party is a democrat.

That's my hope but I couldn't even guess at how likely that is, a lot of that depends on what the world looks like on Nov. 9th.

RE: Moving to Canada (or wherever). The way I see, if I ever feel like I need to pack up and move as a result of a Trump presidency, I'll do everything I can to make sure everyone less privilege than me that wants to get out, gets out first. And even if that was the case, I'd still be leaving only because fighting back from the outside would be safer and/or more effective than fighting from within.
posted by VTX at 9:15 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

With regard to Bill Clinton and the Third Way: southern motherfucking Democratic-Republicans!

Defending Bill Clinton's administration does not strike me as a particularly good way to defend Hillary Clinton. Maybe Bill was the best we could have done in the 90s, but it's not the 90s anymore and the Third Way is not really something we need to defend/revive.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:15 AM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

I'm pinning my hopes on a senate majority and being close enough in the house that they're able to get some good work done and build some momentum going into the mid-terms where, I hope, that the typical pattern reverses itself and the dems pick up more seats in the senate and flip the house so that they have a shot at undoing all the gerrymandering and, I hope, reforming that process to keep it from happening again.
There's no point pinning your hopes on something that's not going to happen. The Democrats have no chance of flipping the house in 2018. It's basically mathematically impossible at this point.
posted by peacheater at 9:20 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

If Werner Herzog is feeling calm about this election instead of descending into an abyss of nihilism and despair, then maybe we can dial down the JCPL a notch?

In fairness, though, I think you could set Werner Herzog on fire and he would calmly and rationally discuss the process of combustion and the sensations he was experiencing until his jaw fell off.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:20 AM on October 31, 2016 [49 favorites]

There's also the issue of how much Trump uses deliberate misinformation as part of his strategy to get his way. Democracy only works effectively when there's a free press letting people have access to the information they need to make informed votes. As President, Trump would have the power to muzzle the press in many ways, and the way that media outlets played by his rules throughout the campaign gives a pretty good indication that they wouldn't fight that hard against any new rules he makes, if by going along they get more access.

The discussion from the weekend pretty far upthread about whether genocide is possible here based on our current norms ties into this as well. First you feed out misinformation, in such a way that it gets reported in trusted media (a spurious link between immigrants and fraud, for example, or between US mosques and terrorism), then you enlist law enforcement to take care of the issue, and make sure the media publicizes the arrests (they wouldn't have been arrested if they weren't doing anything wrong / where there's smoke there's probably fire), then you send people who you can't outright deport to containment centers. It's all done within the framework of accepted laws, and - largely because so much of our system is transparent - the American people generally accept that when the law steps in, the people accused must be guilty and the punishment is merited and certainly not worth protesting. From there to people disappearing is a pretty easy step.

Without transparency or the ability of journalists to show voters - and Congress for that matter - what's actually going on, you can have a completely free democracy voting in favor of all sorts of shit because they simply aren't given the info to know what they're actually voting for.

People believe him, even when you can prove what he's saying is total bullshit. Some of those people are already in office and law enforcement. That's what scares me.
posted by Mchelly at 9:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

Katy's been great this cycle, but I think you mean Kurt Eichenwald.

You're right, good catch. She tweeted the link I followed to the article, so I just assumed she wrote it.
posted by msalt at 9:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Defending Bill Clinton's administration does not strike me as a particularly good way to defend Hillary Clinton. Maybe Bill was the best we could have done in the 90s, but it's not the 90s anymore and the Third Way is not really something we need to defend/revive.
But that's precisely the point, isn't it? It's not the 90s any more and no one is saying we should revive the Third Way, but no one should evaluate Bill Clinton's administration without considering it in the political context of the 90s.
posted by peacheater at 9:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [27 favorites]

BSABSVR local (well, national spot in the local) news (KDKA, Pittsburgh) report: The FBI found emails that may be related to Hillary Clinton's email server. Here's how the campaigns responded. Here's how it affected the horse race. No mention of the nearly unanimous condemnation of Comey for lobbing his law bomb.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Defending Bill Clinton's administration does not strike me as a particularly good way to defend Hillary Clinton.

I just see it as Metafilter political time-travel. We've refought the primaries, dine recriminations about Nader vs Gore, and now it's time to debate Bill Clinton's presidency. Next up, it'll be time for us all to put on some sweaters, and dissect what Carter did wrong...
posted by happyroach at 9:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

Also Donald Trump interrupted my lunch with a recorded phone call. Fuck you, Donald Trump.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:23 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I just see it as Metafilter political time-travel. We've refought the primaries, dine recriminations about Nader vs Gore, and now it's time to debate Bill Clinton's presidency. Next up, it'll be time for us all to put on some sweaters, and dissect what Carter did wrong...

Minted the Susan B. Anthony dollar without requiring parking meter manufacturers to start receiving it.

I'll never forgive him for that when I still have to keep quarters in hand.
posted by ocschwar at 9:24 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

If we're relitigating the Carter administration, I want dibs on the Killer Rabbit.
posted by Mchelly at 9:25 AM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

Up here in the 518, the constant barrage of Schumer ads is so baffling. I haven't seen a single ad for Long, and this is a media market with a fair amount of GOP voters (I certainly see enough attack ads trying to malign Zephyr Teachout and she's not even in this district). And the Schumer ads are so damn slick. Well produced and pointless. It's like he just enjoys having them run. He has to know he doesn't need them.

This is what you would do if you're not really running to defeat Wendy Long but also pre-emptively running against whoever Schumer might be worried could give him a real contest. This is him stamping BAD MOTHER FUCKER on his wallet.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:26 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Mchelly: "If we're relitigating the Carter administration"

One of the things that I'm always bemused by is that GOP operatives are willing to go deep into the past for democrat's failings while insisting that doing the same for them is dredging up the past.
posted by boo_radley at 9:30 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

Thiel's support for Trump is simple- Peter Thiel hates democracy, and understands Trump as a force for its destruction.
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:32 AM on October 31, 2016 [31 favorites]

The thing that gets me about the Republicans' failure to build a GOTV organization is that elections only come every two years (by and large; I know there are exceptions), and presidential elections every four. One would think that taking a pass on it this year will have a significant impact on efforts to build a GOTV op next time around, too. They'll be suffering from a gap in experience and it'll be that much harder to catch up to the curve on tech developments.

But just think about how much they've learned about suppressing the vote.
posted by one_bean at 9:32 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Actually, I was just musing this morning what Carter would do differently if he could go back in time from today.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:32 AM on October 31, 2016

Bill Clinton left office 15 years ago.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:32 AM on October 31, 2016

I just see it as Metafilter political time-travel. We've refought the primaries, dine recriminations about Nader vs Gore, and now it's time to debate Bill Clinton's presidency. Next up, it'll be time for us all to put on some sweaters, and dissect what Carter did wrong...

It's not a family Thanksgiving until someone gets called by the dog's name.

And it's not a metafilter political discussion until someone mentions Nader. (Although Nader as metafilter's Godwin seems to have died down recently.)
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 9:34 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump is the biggest threat to our democracy this country has ever seen. Once people like him get power, good luck getting your democracy back. Not to mention the elemental threat Trump poses to every person who is a minority.

Do non-US citizens counts as a minority? This here Brit is a trifle nervous. You know, thinking about Trump in the White House -- piqued by a real or perceived slight by a woman (like, for instance, UK prime minister Theresa May or Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel). Would he be satisfied with a series of retaliatory five o'clock in the morning tweets? Or reach for the nuclear option?
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:35 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Good Yglesias piece: Clinton’s critics know she’s guilty, they're just trying to decide what she's guilty of
posted by Chrysostom at 9:36 AM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

Francis what was actually done.

Well, what was actually done was the near total destruction of the American welfare system, the War on Drugs accelerating as the number of black men incarcerated reached ever high peaks.

If that's what you mean by "victory", if that's what you mean by "fighting" than yeah, I hope Clinton doesn't follow her husband's path for "fighting". We can't take many more "wins" like that.

I'm hoping she's learned from the humiliating defeat her husband suffered, the ongoing humiliation and defeat of Obama, and she's going to come out fighting without any of this bipartisan bullshit.

We need a scorched earth, take no prisoners, fuck them as hard as we possibly can approach. All this namby pamby being nicey nicey shit has won us nothing and cost us a lot. Clinton looks like she's about fed up with it too, and that gives me hope.

Because, as others have noted, she's going to be running up against a wall.

If we're lucky she gets a tiny majority in the Senate, if we're unlucky she gets a 50/50 split with Kane casting the tiebreaking vote, and if we're extremely unlucky the Republicans hold on to the Senate.

And that will last until 2018 when the Republicans are virtually guaranteed to not only hold the House, but retake the Senate. Anyone who is betting on the Democrats holding the Senate after the midterms is being foolish in the extreme.

So she's got two years, at absolute best, to ram through as many Supreme Court nominees as possible. I'm hoping she doesn't even try to be nice or conciliatory, if she can get a 51 vote majority in the Senate I'm hoping the Senate eradicates the filibuster and she doesn't even try for moderate, compromise, candidates. Fuck 'em, they had a shot at that with Obama and Merick Garland and instead they threw a tantrum, that tantrum needs to have severe consequences.

After that the only question is how much can Clinton bully the House with the power of the Executive branch?

Because by 2018 she's going to be back to doing nothing but vetoing eight hours a day. She has one shot at this, and I really hope she will make it count.
posted by sotonohito at 9:36 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

One of the things that I'm always bemused by is that GOP operatives are willing to go deep into the past for democrat's failings while insisting that doing the same for them is dredging up the past.

Robert Byrd was in the KKK (70 years ago). Dems are racist!

Trump retweeted a white supremacist yesterday. Old news! Have you heard about Robert Byrd!?!
posted by chris24 at 9:37 AM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

Do non-US citizens counts as a minority?

No. It's fine that you're "a trifle nervous," but please don't lump hypotheticals in with the very real threats being made against minorities.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 9:39 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

But just think about how much they've learned about suppressing the vote.

Suppressing their own vote? Sure. Suppressing their opponents' vote? Based on the early voting turnout, seems like the opposite.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 9:40 AM on October 31, 2016

You know, thinking about Trump in the White House -- piqued by a real or perceived slight by a woman (like, for instance, UK prime minister Theresa May or Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel). Would he be satisfied with a series of retaliatory five o'clock in the morning tweets?

He'll just call them "unfuckable lard-asses".
posted by Slothrup at 9:41 AM on October 31, 2016

so, the big orange talking yam chose to be in grand rapids on halloween. i feel dirty.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 9:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

He's just call them "unfuckable lard-asses".

He'd complain why none of the press brought up why they were tweeting at 3am.
posted by Talez at 9:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

We need a scorched earth, take no prisoners, fuck them as hard as we possibly can approach. All this namby pamby being nicey nicey shit has won us nothing and cost us a lot. Clinton looks like she's about fed up with it too, and that gives me hope.

Because, as others have noted, she's going to be running up against a wall.

If we're lucky she gets a tiny majority in the Senate, if we're unlucky she gets a 50/50 split with Kane casting the tiebreaking vote, and if we're extremely unlucky the Republicans hold on to the Senate.

The problem here is the second pretty much precludes the first. Obama had the once in a generation shot to "fuck them as hard as we possibly can", in 2008. You don't seem likely to agree that he got what he could out of it, but that moment is gone in either case.

Clinton is going to have to try and do what she can within the executive, just like Obama is now, and the most she can hope for is some judicial appointments. Just keeping the country functioning should be considered a stretch goal.

If you want more aggressive political skullfucking, try working to elect a more accommodating congress by the time she's up for reelection, and then maybe we can talk.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:44 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

If something has gone profoundly wrong in your life and you would enjoy listening to 26 minutes of tax law professors @EOTaxProf, @benmosesleff, @AndyGrewal, @professortax, and @smbrnsn discuss the consequences of the independent non-profit Yale Daily News endorsing a political candidate (previously on MetaFilter), then boy have I got a link for you.

Then please come back and tell us why you listened to this.
posted by zachlipton at 9:48 AM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

If you want more aggressive political [eh], try working to elect a more accommodating congress by the time she's up for reelection, and then maybe we can talk.

...or just give the Dems a simple majority in the Senate this election and have her push for the nuclear option on filibusters.
posted by Mooski at 9:50 AM on October 31, 2016

I voted this morning at city hall. There were literally zero people there, so I stuck my completed mail-in ballot in the lockbox and left.
posted by ryanrs at 9:50 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

give the Dems a simple majority in the Senate this election and have her push for the nuclear option

that doesn't let her pass laws you know
posted by ryanrs at 9:52 AM on October 31, 2016

Gaaaaaaah PEC shows tightening 538 shows tightening The Upshot shows tightening ... yes yes I know reversion to the mean, Clinton still ahead, Blue Wall, blah blah blah. NONE of that changes the fact that in a sane world Trump would be losing by more than 50 points and his surrogates would be saying things like, "Well, Bob, I just can't agree we're losing when we're only down by 10 now in the latest poll from Alabama."
posted by kyrademon at 9:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

Then please come back and tell us why you listened to this.

Look, the thing about recovery from being in tax is that it's a process, and I'm going to fall off the wagon sometimes, I just have to get back on afterwards...
posted by Sequence at 9:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

So she's got two years, at absolute best, to ram through as many Supreme Court nominees as possible. I'm hoping she doesn't even try to be nice or conciliatory, if she can get a 51 vote majority in the Senate I'm hoping the Senate eradicates the filibuster and she doesn't even try for moderate, compromise, candidates. Fuck 'em, they had a shot at that with Obama and Merick [sic] Garland and instead they threw a tantrum, that tantrum needs to have severe consequences

Seems weird to bring up Supreme Court Nominations in the middle of a perfectly good rant about Bill Clinton's failings.
posted by one_bean at 9:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

Challenge accepted, zachlipton.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Clinton is exceptionally good at working across the aisles. And I know it feels like all we had were eight years of Republicans refusing to work with Obama, but he still managed to do an awful lot.

It's not boxing. We don't need a double-fisted Democrat to leap in and start punching. I think Obama was probably right when he said it's like football, where you move your ball, you move your ball, and every so often you get the opportunity to make your goal. I trust him on this, because he did the job and I didn't, and he passed healthcare, which nobody else had managed to do before him.

Clinton worked with Obama. She worked with Bill Clinton. She was a senator. And, as I said, she's got exceptional skills at working with the opposition. I trust she can get the job done, even in the face of opposition. She's our next quarterback, and she's not the talented kid drafted from Chicago. She's played this game a long time.
posted by maxsparber at 9:53 AM on October 31, 2016 [24 favorites]

From the department of IOKIYAR, CNN had this to say about Donna Brazile: "We are completely uncomfortable with what we have learned about her interactions with the Clinton campaign while she was a CNN contributor."

CNN seems to be completely comfortable with Corey Lewandowski cashing checks from the Trump campaign for months.
posted by zachlipton at 9:53 AM on October 31, 2016 [71 favorites]

I am so looking forward to Hillary's ability to make bipartisan deals - while I would love her to use a majority Senate to push through both SCOTUS judges and aspects of her progressive agenda, I'm hoping she can fall back on the "building bridges" skills she's known for to make progress even with a hostile congress.

As a Senator, Hillary Clinton Got Along With the GOP. Could She Do So as President? (a few months old; still relevant) "Karl Rove, the Republican political consultant who’d helped George W. Bush defeat Al Gore for the presidency, reportedly asked GOP senators not to co-sponsor legislation with her" -- apparently because she kept managing to get ultra-conservatives to sign off on bills that were much more liberal than the GOP base was happy with. (Don't have cite; can't remember where I heard that.)

And from way back in January: Karl Rove: If Trump is nominee, GOP will lose White House and Senate. He know that (1) Trump is a dumpster fire who'll poison the downballot, and (2) Clinton is an amazing coalition-maker.

There are many in congress who are declaring they'll obstruct her just like they did Obama... but there are many others who have worked with her and would do so again, and still more who haven't worked with her before, but aren't likely to stick to a "no agreements ever" stance when her policies are reasonable and clear, and obviously would help their constituencies.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:54 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

One of the things that I'm always bemused by is that GOP operatives are willing to go deep into the past for democrat's failings while insisting that doing the same for them is dredging up the past.

My "favorite" version of this is the "Trump wasn't a politician then!" as if not sexually harassing women was an expectation only of public servants.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 9:54 AM on October 31, 2016 [49 favorites]

Minted the Susan B. Anthony dollar without requiring parking meter manufacturers to start receiving it.

To be fair, parking meters back then took pennies (!) so a dollar would have been a very long time. I do occasionally wonder if modern-day vending machines take two-dollar bills.
posted by Room 641-A at 9:56 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

that doesn't let her pass laws you know

No, but it effectively pulls the GOP's teeth on blocking appointments, which as political muggings go is pretty awesome.
posted by Mooski at 9:57 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

The Hillary app digital HQ is decorated for Halloween!
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 9:57 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

My analogy for why Trump matters given that "the President is not Emperor."

By himself, Trump could not set the nation on fire; he is like a single evil robot lion, there is only so much damage he can do. (which is still too much!)

Merged with a compliant Congress and an enabling media, he becomes Evil Voltron; if they could in turn pack the court with their judges, said Voltron would then have a big old evil sword for more effective smiting.

I don't think our Constitutional shield, already scarred to hell, would hold long against them.
posted by emjaybee at 9:58 AM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

My girlfriend and I voted over the weekend. It didn't take long; we were in and out in less than 15 minutes. After I finished my ballot, as I was walking away from the little pop-up voting booth, my foot clipped a booth leg and nearly knocked it over which would have knocked down the entire row of booths domino-style. The voting attendant looked at me and said "I didn't see anything." I replied "Good!"
posted by Servo5678 at 9:59 AM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

Also bemusing "Hillary just seems like such a technocrat and very bureaucratic, now let me tell you about why email policies are the most important issue for me."
posted by boo_radley at 10:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

Then please come back and tell us why you listened to this.

Just so you know, I sent this to two of my favorite nonprofit lawyers.
posted by joyceanmachine at 10:02 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

As a Senator, Hillary Clinton Got Along With the GOP. Could She Do So as President?

No, she can't.

If Obama couldn't, she can't either.

The Republican Party is not about making deals. Remember that Representative who told Obama that simply with him that was the maximum possible concession he could make and that his base would hate him just for it so that the outcome of the deal had to be 100% Republican because merely meeting with Obama was a huge concession?

Add in Clinton Derangement Syndrome to that.

If Clinton thinks she can make deals with the Republicans she'll wind up just as much of a humiliated sucker as Obama is. I really, seriously, sincerely, hope that Clinton gives up all that bridge building bullshit before it hurts her just as much as it hurt Obama.

Maybe at some distant point in the past it was possible to have a bipartisan thing going. It isn't anymore. Hell, just the way the Republicans repeatedly betrayed Obama on the ACA should have proven that to even the most bullheaded believer in bipartisanship. Obama tailored parts of the ACA specifically around Republican demands, he asked "what will let you vote for this", got answers, and built his bill around those answers. And they repaid his generosity and tireless efforts at bipartisanship with not one single vote.

If Clinton goes into office thinking for one second that she will get the tiniest, most minuscule, bit of support or cooperation from the Republicans than she's not nearly as smart or able as she seems to be.

They will see their prime, their only, objective as utterly annihilating her. There can be no cooperation, no bipartisanship. They've closed that off.
posted by sotonohito at 10:02 AM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

@FrankConniff:
The Halloween equivalent of voting for Trump is eating the apple even though you can clearly see the razor blade inside.
posted by Atom Eyes at 10:03 AM on October 31, 2016 [26 favorites]

If something has gone profoundly wrong in your life and you would enjoy listening to 26 minutes of tax law professors @EOTaxProf, @benmosesleff, @AndyGrewal, @professortax, and @smbrnsn discuss the consequences of the independent non-profit Yale Daily News endorsing a political candidate (previously on MetaFilter), then boy have I got a link for you.

Oh wow! FahrentholdTV got greenlit??
:)
posted by TwoWordReview at 10:05 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Hillary's emails would literally have to say this for it to be a close call.
posted by Talez at 10:06 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

I think the dream scenario is win the White House and Senate, end filibuster on SCOTUS nominees, get new judge(s) seated, find gerrymandering unconstitutional because it is racially discriminatory, redraw districts and then the house really could be up for grabs to represent people appropriately. As a side effect, this could also bring the Republican party back towards the center a bit because there won't be as many safe districts to primary from the lunatic fringe.
posted by snofoam at 10:06 AM on October 31, 2016 [32 favorites]

The Hillary app digital HQ is decorated for Halloween!

Hillary supporters: Amazing. Strides. Such charisma. Much win.

Average people: Huh, neat, maybe? *moves on*

Fans of Halloween: [silence because they're either pregaming for parties and getting costumes set for the night of drunken madness or getting ready to go around with their parental units]

Apathetic people: Meh, who cares.

Deplorable segment of the GOP: [from armchairs] SEE! SHE IS A WITCH. LITERALLY! WE'VE BEEN SAYING THIS ALL ALONG. Are the new torches ready yet...? ...no? Shit. EVERYONE MAKE YOUR OWN TORCHES AND FOLLOW ME! YOU ALL SHOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR OUR HARD WORK!
posted by RolandOfEld at 10:08 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

snofoam Even assuming maximum speed for all that, can it really redraw the districts before 2020? I'm pretty sure the Republicans could hold redistricting off by lawsuits for long enough to get through 2018.

I'm not at all disputing that's the optimum path forward for Clinton, and I really, deeply, sincerely, hope she manages all of the things you list, but I'm doubtful that it could force redistricting by the midterms even if she got her Justices seated by August and someone had a lawsuit in the works.
posted by sotonohito at 10:11 AM on October 31, 2016

My analogy for why Trump matters given that "the President is not Emperor."

A die-hard Republican told a friend of mine that Trump's waffling on concession is what turned the tide for him. It's one thing to refuse to concede as a candidate and another thing entirely when you are already President and might not wish to leave. While it seems likely that he would be dragged out by security, it would not be a good look for the US.
posted by xyzzy at 10:12 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

The Democrats have no chance of flipping the house in 2018. It's basically mathematically impossible at this point.

They'll have roughly the same chance that they do this year - the entire House is up for election every two years. What makes it hard is demographics and district lines drawn based on the 2010 census administered by Republican state legislatures, but with the changing demographics of the country and additional minority voters registering those might be mitigated a bit. The only additional complication in 2018 is the always-powerful mid-term election phenomenon where the President's party almost always loses seats. It's not like the Senate, where there are so few Republican seats up for election compared to the Dems that the Dems will mostly be playing defense in 2018, regardless of whether they win control this year or not.
posted by LionIndex at 10:12 AM on October 31, 2016

Sigh, today's wikileaks emails about Brazile aren't going to make for great optics ...
posted by diogenes at 10:13 AM on October 31, 2016

Sigh, today's wikileaks emails about Brazile aren't going to make for great optics ...

That's been known for a while and Trump's already regurgitated it ad nauseam.
posted by chris24 at 10:16 AM on October 31, 2016

Donald Trump is refusing to pay his campaign pollster nearly three-quarters of a million dollars

Donald Trump's hiring of pollster Tony Fabrizio in May was viewed as a sign that the real estate mogul was finally bringing seasoned operatives into his insurgent operation.

But the Republican presidential nominee appears to have taken issue with some of the services provided by the veteran GOP strategist, who has advised candidates from 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole to Florida Gov. Rick Scott. The Trump campaign's latest Federal Election Commission report shows that it is disputing nearly $767,000 that Fabrizio's firm says it is still owed for polling.

Why would anybody agree to work for Trump?
posted by zachlipton at 10:16 AM on October 31, 2016 [50 favorites]

Add Jeanine Pirro to the Republicans saying Comey fucked up bad.

Trump-Supporting Fox News Host Comes To Clinton's Defense On FBI Letter (VIDEO)

"I support Donald Trump and I want him to win, but whether it’s Hillary Clinton or anyone else, Comey’s actions violate not only long-standing Justice Department policy, the directive of the person that he works under, the attorney general,” the former prosecutor said, "but even more important, the most fundamental rules of fairness and impartiality..."

"Pirro said the decision "both disgraces and politicizes the FBI and is symptomatic of all that is wrong in Washington."
posted by chris24 at 10:19 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Gaaaaaaah PEC shows tightening

PEC still shows Clinton win probabilities of 97 or 99%.
posted by diogenes at 10:20 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Now that I am unemployed and have no excuses left, I volunteered and signed up for that Mefite HRC calling list everyone's been talking about. This is the first time my cynical ass has ever volunteered up for anyone ever, even Obama who I love more than life itself. I only got one person to pick up, and she's already voted early, but it was delightful and I will continue to make calls until I get a job, Clinton is president, or the world ends, whichever comes first. Join me!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [67 favorites]

I'm going as the scariest thing I could think of for Halloween: Fight Song. Playing on a continuous loop—Forever.

--@kylegriffin1
posted by zachlipton at 10:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Election Law Blog: Breaking: Democrats Sue Trump, State Republican Parties, and Roger Stone for Voter Intimidation Tactics
posted by Chrysostom at 10:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

That's been known for a while and Trump's already regurgitated it ad nauseam.

I think this is a new email with much more direct evidence.
posted by diogenes at 10:22 AM on October 31, 2016

I thought it was pretty clear that Brazile was lying before on sharing the death penalty question. But inappropriate meddling aside, the entire primary doesn't rest on questions about lead or the death penalty. Bad optics, sure, but meh.

As for Jeanine Pirro, she had a similar problem when she was running for AG. Some type of ongoing investigation that came to nothing was leaked during her election season.
posted by xyzzy at 10:23 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Evan Bayh is predictably cratering and with him the Senate hopes.

If Bayh loses, Dems need 3/5 of PA, NH, NC, NV and MO. Only McGinty in PA is currently leading in the polling average.

I never get why people keep saying this. Look at RealClearPolitics. He's never trailed in a poll and is currently 3.7% up in the average.
posted by chris24 at 10:23 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Gaaaaaaah PEC shows tightening

In case your JCPL is heading upwards, I would like to offer you a comforting thought: #noseflags (particularly this one, which is my favorite).
posted by wenestvedt at 10:25 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I put as much stock in "optics" as inauspicious entrails or moonbeams at this point. I'm sure there are voters who are swayed by "optics," but they are, you know, morons.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:28 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Thiel's speech was interesting. Everything he said sounded true, until he tried to connect it back to Trump. The gist of the argument seemed to be that establishment leadership has failed, so we should give an outsider a go, and Trump is the only outsider who's made it this far (seems like he would have been OK with Bernie, too.) In Thiel's mind, the outsider status outweighs all of Trump's other obvious drawbacks.
posted by Coventry at 10:28 AM on October 31, 2016

I never get why people keep saying this. Look at RealClearPolitics. He's never trailed in a poll and is currently 3.7% up in the average.

The RCP doesn't yet have today's Monmouth poll that shows him tied, and his trend is, yes, cratering.

Also he's objectively horrible in every single facet other than having his Dad's name, in a red state that's currently Trump +7.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:29 AM on October 31, 2016

The RCP doesn't yet have today's Monmouth poll that shows him tied, and his trend is, yes, cratering.

I'm not saying I'd bet money on him winning, but I'm pretty sure the way most people use the word "cratering" is not "trending towards less support and currently tied". Craters are not known for their gentle slopes.
posted by Sequence at 10:31 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

The RCP doesn't yet have today's Monmouth poll that shows him tied, and his trend is, yes, cratering.

Also he's objectively horrible in every single facet

Add in the tie and he's still up 3, in a state that's Trump+7 as you say. Every poll result there is consistent with a 3 point lead. A poll result that is within the margin of error is not cratering. Can we please not freak out on individual polls? Yes, he's a terrible bluedog Dem, but he's the candidate we have.
posted by chris24 at 10:34 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

This is the email in question I think, had it been actually proved yet that the primary debates were slanted in favour of Hillary? I thought that was just Bernie diehard rhetoric up until now. Bitter pill to swallow for everyone who was all-in for him earlier on in the year.

The weird thing is that the question Brazile describes didn't happen as she said it would. The only real content of Brazile's tip in this new email is that a woman who's family has lead poisoning would ask Clinton what she would do as President to help the people of Flint. This was for the primary debate that took place in Flint. No campaign should need inside advice that, standing in an auditorium in the city where the crisis is happening, someone concerned about lead poisoning would ask the candidates how they would help. That's a question you expect and prepare for weeks in advance because it's blindly obvious. If that kind of foresight makes you a highly paid campaign advisor, then most of us are vastly overqualified for the job.

If the emails are legitimate, and that's not a ridiculous if, then I agree people should not have debate questions in advance and shouldn't be slipping them to campaigns. But "someone will ask about lead remediation in Flint during a debate held in Flint" isn't, on its own, the kind of thing that makes me think "yeah it was all rigged."
posted by zachlipton at 10:38 AM on October 31, 2016 [45 favorites]

The RCP doesn't yet have today's Monmouth poll that shows him tied, and his trend is, yes, cratering.

I'm confused. You seem to be using trends in some cases, current standings in other cases, and either both or neither in others.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:40 AM on October 31, 2016

We don't have to defend Brazile. What she did was both unethical and plain stupid. She wrote an EMAIL with the SUBJECT LINE "OH HEY HERES A DEBATE QUESTION IN ADVANCE." Stop fighting for every piece of territory advanced up, not all are tactically significant. Donna Brazile did something shitty, she is now fired. Cool, bye. Now about this voter suppression thing...
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:43 AM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

There's just no way that, nine days before the election -- and THIS election, for that matter -- there is an undecided voter who knows enough about who Donna Brazile is and how cable news primary debates work to have this be the issue that actually changes their mind about Clinton.

It's probably more likely that an undecided voter clicks that link, sees a photo of Brazile, and thinks, "Hillary Clinton has a black friend with purple hair? This scares me and I don't like it. Trump it is!"

As it is, this story is largely red meat for people already suffering from Clinton Derangement Syndrome.
posted by Sara C. at 10:44 AM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

Sure. I guess I'm thrilled to be banking on Evan Bayh holding his tenuous lead while Senate candidates are trailing Clinton significantly across the board and dropping daily. All hail RCP, when does Hamilton come out on DVD?
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:45 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

She wrote an EMAIL with the SUBJECT LINE "OH HEY HERES A DEBATE QUESTION IN ADVANCE."

Are we super duper sure that this is definitely a real email and not a forgery? It just seems so unlikely that such an experienced political operative who has been a political commentator for over a decade would not only do something so obviously unethical, but do it regarding something so obvious (town hall participant at a debate in Flint will ask about the Flint water crisis), AND use such an incriminating email subject line.

Brazile left CNN back before the DNC when she replaced Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Maybe they've retroactively fired her, censured her, or announced that she won't be returning after the election, but without an admission of guilt from Brazile herself or some other smoking gun, I'm just not buying that this actually happened. And not just because I can't cede ground. But because this is "Anthony Weiner sexts a random woman he met at a fundraiser for the 478th time" levels of stupid. And I don't think Donna Brazile is stupid.
posted by Sara C. at 10:48 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Look, I can't stand Bayh, but who else was going to win a very red state? Literally just last year many people were thrilled he decided to run to give Dems even a chance in Indiana.

538: Democrats Could Put Indiana Senate Seat In Play In 2016 — Especially If Evan Bayh Runs

"Still, Bayh is likely the Democrats’ best chance to take the seat — by a good margin.

He’s still very popular in Indiana. According to a Howey Politics Indiana survey from 2013, Bayh had a favorable rating of 60 percent. That matches a late 2010 American Viewpoint poll that pegged his favorable rating at 63 percent.

Bayh wouldn’t have to raise a lot of money if he decided to run. He has almost $10 million on hand. To put that in perspective, Indiana’s other senator, Democrat Joe Donnelly, won his seat in 2012 with less than $6 million raised."
...

"The problem for Democrats comes if Bayh doesn’t run. The Democratic bench is weak in the state. Indiana has been wiped clean of Democratic House members from swing districts. No Democrat has won the governorship in the Hoosier State since Frank O’Bannon in 2000. Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz is the only statewide elected Democrat who isn’t already in the U.S. Senate."
posted by chris24 at 10:49 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

The thing that gets me about the Republicans' failure to build a GOTV organization is that elections only come every two years (by and large; I know there are exceptions), and presidential elections every four. One would think that taking a pass on it this year will have a significant impact on efforts to build a GOTV op next time around, too. They'll be suffering from a gap in experience and it'll be that much harder to catch up to the curve on tech developments.

You'd think so, but then again the Democrats have built a series of great GOTV operation for the past couple of Presidential campaigns and then let them gather dust in off-year elections, so go figure.
posted by Gelatin at 10:49 AM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

You'd think so, but then again the Democrats have built a series of great GOTV operation for the past couple of Presidential campaigns and then let them gather dust in off-year elections, so go figure.

A friend of mine refers to the Dems as having great GOTVFTPATPO operations -- Get Out The Vote For This Person And This Person Only.
posted by Etrigan at 10:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

I put as much stock in "optics" as inauspicious entrails or moonbeams at this point. I'm sure there are voters who are swayed by "optics," but they are, you know, morons.

I hear you, but the Brazile story is now the second group of headlines in my Google News feed (right under Comey). That isn't a good thing.
posted by diogenes at 10:54 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Reading the TPM link re Brazile, the only new information that isn't several weeks old is that CNN "accepted Brazile's resignation" on October 14.

How likely is it that Brazile resigned because she's already low-key a part of the Clinton transition team? October 14 is right around when all the polls started to overwhelmingly show that there was almost no way Trump could win the election. It's about a week after the "Grab 'em by the pussy" tape was released, for example.
posted by Sara C. at 10:54 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Are we super duper sure that this is definitely a real email and not a forgery?

No, but why would Wikileaks fake an email which does not accurately describe what actually happened?
posted by beerperson at 10:55 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

In Thiel's mind, the outsider status outweighs all of Trump's other obvious drawbacks.

This is something I just can't grok. Why on earth is someone who has benefited greatly from the system as it's structured right now going to change the system other than tilting the playing field even more in his direction?
posted by NoMich at 10:56 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Well, I guess the Brazile leak could affect the huge number of the die-hard Breitbart-reading Sanders supporters who were originally inclined to vote for Clinton until this was unveiled...
posted by MysticMCJ at 10:56 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Reading the TPM link re Brazile, the only new information that isn't several weeks old is that CNN "accepted Brazile's resignation" on October 14.

Huh? The very first line of that article is "After a stolen email published Monday by WikiLeaks..."
posted by diogenes at 10:57 AM on October 31, 2016

But "someone will ask about lead remediation in Flint during a debate held in Flint" isn't, on its own, the kind of thing that makes me think "yeah it was all rigged."

This, a thousand times. Even if someone did mail the Clinton campaign ahead of time, all that tells us is that some people are dumb enough to think that a serious presidential candidate needs a tip to avoid being blindsided in a town recently defined by a particular problem by a question about that problem. It would be complete amateur hour bullshit for her to not have prepared for it.

The same shit came up during the Clinton v. Trump debates, with people convinced she was somehow coached ahead of time because she (gasp) had prepared to answer some really obvious questions that anyone paying attention could have predicted. Granted, I'm not saying she would have predicted exactly what questions would be asked, but she could (and I think did) reasonably foresee a limited list of likely questions just from the current political climate, and was prepared for any of that short list that came up.

Just because Trump is apparently an amateur who walks into a debate without even thinking about likely questions, that doesn't mean having a sense of likely questions is somehow suspect behavior.
posted by tocts at 10:58 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

dirigibleman: BSABSVR local (well, national spot in the local) news (KDKA, Pittsburgh) report:

Wut.
posted by rabbitrabbit at 11:00 AM on October 31, 2016

In case your JCPL is heading upwards, I would like to offer you a comforting thought: #noseflags (particularly this one, which is my favorite).

And here they are in one glorious, scrolling page.
posted by Jalliah at 11:01 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Frankly I think the real reason the right-wing media is still running with what is by now a very old Donna Brazile story is that it's one of the few ways of creating a reasonably fact-based narrative that Clinton is using corrupt tactics to steal the election. It plays into voters' ideas that the election is "rigged" and that Clinton can only be doing as well as she is because of underhand tactics and not that she's actually qualified and prepared and just plain more popular with voters than Trump is.

I see *so much* chatter from Republicans on Facebook about how Clinton stole the primary from Sanders. People who'd never heard of Bernie Sanders a month ago are suddenly all like "But Bernie Sanders was ROBBED! ROBBED I TELL YOU!"

They're building a case to allow Trump not to concede and roadblock Clinton's inevitable mandate. They in no way think this is some kind of October surprise that's going to win them the election.
posted by Sara C. at 11:03 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

No, but why would Wikileaks fake an email which does not accurately describe what actually happened?

To help influence the election.
posted by zarq at 11:04 AM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Have we had a discussion here on MeFi on the appropriateness of sharing Wikileaks links?

'cause I vote that's a terrible decision and a terrible source. We shouldn't be encouraging this shit.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:05 AM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

Frankly I think the real reason the right-wing media is still running with what is by now a very old Donna Brazile story

It's a new email! Everybody is running with it!
posted by diogenes at 11:05 AM on October 31, 2016

The Trump campaign's strategy is clear at this point, because someone described it to Busineessweek:

Instead of expanding the electorate, Bannon and his team are trying to shrink it. “We have three major voter suppression operations under way,” says a senior official. They’re aimed at three groups Clinton needs to win overwhelmingly: idealistic white liberals, young women, and African Americans. Trump’s invocation at the debate of Clinton’s WikiLeaks e-mails and support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership was designed to turn off Sanders supporters. The parade of women who say they were sexually assaulted by Bill Clinton and harassed or threatened by Hillary is meant to undermine her appeal to young women. And her 1996 suggestion that some African American males are “super predators” is the basis of a below-the-radar effort to discourage infrequent black voters from showing up at the polls—particularly in Florida.

The Brazile email and the outrage they are creating over it fits into part #1 of this strategy: try to make former Sanders supporters mad so they just stay home on election day. It's not about Brazile (though personally, I'm more interested in who may have been slipping questions to Brazile, rather than what she did with them); it's about efforts to discourage people from voting.
posted by zachlipton at 11:06 AM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

Have we had a discussion here on MeFi on the appropriateness of sharing Wikileaks links?

That's not an unreasonable topic for a Metatalk post, but I dunno if we need to have that discussion in these already-profoundly-unwieldy election threads.
posted by dersins at 11:07 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

she's got exceptional skills at working with the opposition.

What opposition? Paul "peek-a-boo" Ryan, and Mitch "lock her up!" McConnell? It's the Party of Trump, lock, stock, and barrel now. Trump did them a favor by crushing everyone who held up the GOP Reagan mask.

Most "bipartisan cooperation" is a defeat. At least on the biggies. Budget. SCOTUS. Illegal, unnecessary, immoral war. Tom Daschle, I'm looking at you. Cause that ain't gonna get it. (Yes HRC voted to let W have it his way. She f'd up and said so.)

Have you seen the Trump train? They're cheering for sexual assault for fsck sake. Don't work with them until they can demonstrate what Trump so woefully cannot: contrition.

Is there a chance that could happen? Nope. I agree let's not delude ourselves into thinking the Party of Trump has a plan or a heart. They jumped in with both feet. They'll spend three months straight-up denying what you see before you today. Yeah compromise but not with them. Because they have a lot to understand they are accountable for and that won't ever happen so /it's SOP: deny, deny, deny, block progress, marginalize women and minorities, rip off the poor and middle-class.

HRC knows this better than almost anyone so all we can hope for is that she's sufficiently emboldened to demand restitution. Not just for herself.
posted by petebest at 11:09 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

The key piece of info in the Brazile email was that the woman who might have asked the question had some kind of rash and her family had lead poisoning. It's the kind of context that HRC loves to prepare for, knowing what the lead poisoning looks like, dropping a reference to that research into her response, whatever. She (DB) also said she would send a few more questions. It's over-preparing because even if Trump got any of this info ahead of time he would ignore it so yeah, it is useless but it is still a breach of professional ethics and it does make the Clinton campaign look kinda bad. But not that bad, so we can safely ignore it and continue to attack other fronts like how outrageous Covey's letter was or you know, the issues.

Maybe it's fake sure, but again, saying that it's fake is as useless a defense as Trump saying his sexual assault victims are lying. If you can't prove that its a lie, you're just making yourself look weak. The proper response imo is: Who cares? Who cares if Donna Brazile was feeding the campaign debate questions? I'm sure its possible pro-Trump people were trying to but he doesn't do debate prep so it wouldn't have mattered. Trump is a fraudulent rapist. Hillary is a dedicated and brilliant public servant. Stick to the script.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 11:11 AM on October 31, 2016

From the IOKIYAR department, again:

What's Patrick Murphy hiding??
http://www.murphytaxreturns.com/

--@marcorubio

That leads to a website, run by the Rubio campaign, attacking Murphy for not releasing his tax returns, going so far as to say "No tax returns released, maybe to hide money made from business with Donald Trump?"

Rubio's chosen Presidential candidate, of course, has not released his tax returns, but in that case, we know with 100% certainty that it's to hide money made from business with Donald Trump.
posted by zachlipton at 11:12 AM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

If it makes people feel better, very right-leaning Rasmussen has Clinton +3 after Comey. They were tied in their poll Friday.

White House Watch: No Fallout for Clinton So Far

"Hillary Clinton appears unbruised so far from the reopening of the FBI’s investigation of her and holds a slight lead as the final full week of the campaign begins.

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey finds Clinton with 45% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 42%. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has five percent (5%) of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton and Trump were tied with 45% each on Friday. They were within two points or less of each other nationally all last week in a survey with a +/- 2.5% margin of error."
posted by chris24 at 11:12 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

The very first line of that article is "After a stolen email published Monday by WikiLeaks..."

This isn't the first purported "Donna Brazile leaks debate questions" email.

Brazile resigned from CNN weeks ago, supposedly in response to the PREVIOUS leaked debate question email which was also a gigantic nothingburger.

Which is yet another reason I'm almost positive the whole thing is fake. When nobody was interested in the obviously forged Donna Brazile email in the last go-round, they tried again.

The new stories I'm seeing don't even have new content. It's all just a rehash of the previous almost identical wikileaks reveal. Brazile isn't even bothering to re-deny that this happened/re-allege that the emails are a forgery. She just tweeted something like "please refer to my statement of October 11 re this matter".
posted by Sara C. at 11:13 AM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

One of the things that I'm always bemused by is that GOP operatives are willing to go deep into the past for democrat's failings while insisting that doing the same for them is dredging up the past.

One of the things that I'm always bemused by is that the Republicans barely make a pretense of putting up good-faith opposition to Democrats (see: Obama's latest Supreme Court Nominee, no Republican votes for the ACA, government shitdowns, etc.)

One of the things that doesn't amuse me at all is that the so-called "liberal media," and some Democrats, tend to give them credit for good faith nevertheless.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

My 88 year old nana just voted for Hillary and that was the most excited she'd been in years! SO happy to be able to vote for a woman!
posted by LizBoBiz at 11:14 AM on October 31, 2016 [88 favorites]

The way to un-suppress the vote is to stay positive on your candidate and negative on the opponent, not fight tooth and nail that everything your opponent says about you is made up. Or, you know, dig up some evidence that it is fake.

Fuck, that means I have to make some more calls doesn't it.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 11:16 AM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

Beyond just the fact that the Wikileaks emails are meant to hurt Clinton's chances in this election, they also create a chilling effect for anyone who might want to work for her -- it's letting you know that if you work on Clinton's campaign, in the Clinton White House, for the DNC, or pretty much anywhere else that Wikileaks decides is pro-Clinton, be ready to have all of your private communication made public. If you support Clinton, however tenuously, you've given up your right to privacy (in their minds). It's only a matter of time before all Clinton small-dollar donors are doxxed, if they haven't been already. It's an intimidation tactic in addition to an electioneering tactic.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:16 AM on October 31, 2016 [58 favorites]

I voted this morning, we brought the kids though they are both way too young to remember it. My toddler daughter was very interested in her sticker but that lasted only until she found a stick in the parking lot outside. My eight month old baby managed not to eat his sticker and he's napping with it stuck on his shirt right now. Yay!

Very pleasant early voting experience, a first for me. It was reasonably busy for a Monday before lunch in a Boston suburb but we only waited in line for a couple of minutes because there were plenty of booths and chairs (and a podium, which is where I voted) and the volunteers were great.

This morning was only marred by the fact that I actually took off my Women's Rights Are Human Rights HRC t-shirt before heading over to vote, I didn't want to risk it being seen as electioneering. Of course, in a just world, the statement "Women's Rights are Human Rights" would be common fucking sense and not a campaign slogan. ALAS.

Go Hillary! You got two more votes today!
posted by lydhre at 11:16 AM on October 31, 2016 [33 favorites]

Everytime I try to shame people in here to stop fighting each other and stay on message I'm going to make 5 calls for HFA, please feel free to pledge your own donations in kind.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 11:17 AM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

obviously forged Donna Brazile email

"Obviously forged" is getting a bit ahead of the evidence, isn't it?
posted by diogenes at 11:20 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

> "... government shitdowns, etc."

Bestest typo.
posted by kyrademon at 11:20 AM on October 31, 2016 [25 favorites]

This Brazile leak is a total non-issue. Any former Sanders supporter who will be influenced by right-wing media was never going to vote for Clinton in the first place. Any "undecided voter" who is reading Breitbart as a primary source of information isn't going to vote for Clinton either. Undecided voters for whom this Brazile leak is the deciding factor to not vote for Clinton seems like an insignificant amount of voters at best... And all of this will be lost to anyone who only pays attention to the large BREAKING NEWS headlines, which are presently dominated by Comey and emails.

If it's real, then it's something that anyone who is in the tank for either Clinton or Trump can see their own way. If it's fake, it's a ton of effort that - like most of the Republican campaign - is directed in what could be one of the least effective venues possible. Which is why I'm inclined to believe it likely is fake - Trumps razor, and all. But either way, it's something that Clinton herself didn't do, and it's a nothingburger as far as affecting the result.

I really don't understand why anyone would believe that these leaks are doing anything other than throwing more meat into the churning cage of right-wing extremism already frothing with anti-clinton frenzy, as well as feeding into the anxiety of Clinton supporters who follow these things. The majority of the voting populace will never know who the hell Brazile is, and won't be able to differentiate between this email and any other thing tied up with Clinton and email.
posted by MysticMCJ at 11:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

@Politics1com
"If you don't know, keep you mouth shut" - Libertarian VP nom Bill Weld, a former US Atty, on FBI Dir Comey's announcement last week
posted by chris24 at 11:21 AM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

stay on message

How does staying on message at the bottom of a thousand posts in the 20th Trump Metafilter thread have any bearing on anything?
posted by diogenes at 11:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Re Donna Brazile, I think one thing that the Rs find appealing is that for people over a certain age there's an immediate association with Bill Clinton, so two birds, etc.

Have we had a discussion here on MeFi on the appropriateness of sharing Wikileaks links?

'cause I vote that's a terrible decision and a terrible source. We shouldn't be encouraging this shit

Years ago we had a meta about labeling links to wikieaks because some Mefites with certain government jobs were forbidden from viewing them in any context and I was wondering if this was a problem for them still.

(FWIW, it was that MeTa that made me go all-in on labeling links for people, so thanks, government people!)
posted by Room 641-A at 11:22 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

"Obviously forged" is getting a bit ahead of the evidence, isn't it?

Sure, but so is "authentic." Wikileaks should really have no credibility left, and the only people using them as evidentiary proof tend to have a motive to impugn Hillary for anything and everything.
posted by Existential Dread at 11:24 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

One of the things that doesn't amuse me at all is that the so-called "liberal media," and some Democrats, tend to give them credit for good faith nevertheless.

Chris Wallace is the king of this. His decision to treat the Republican nominee like a normal candidate on "Hardball" has been utterly baffling. He keeps bringing in analysts and asking them why Trump does dumb thing X or Y as if there was any answer but "Trump is a fucking moron, Chris." He's assuming facts not in evidence: that the candidate is smart, that the campaign is normal, that Trump even has coherent policies.
posted by xyzzy at 11:25 AM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

I really don't understand why anyone would believe that these leaks are doing anything other than throwing more meat into the churning cage of right-wing extremism

I really don't understand why anyone would think that it isn't problematic for today's top two news stories to be about Clinton "corruption." You can't tell me it wouldn't be better if the top two stories were about Trump corruption.
posted by diogenes at 11:25 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

How does staying on message at the bottom of a thousand posts in the 20th Trump Metafilter thread have any bearing on anything?

Oh, how I was it was only 20. There are 154 threads tagged election2016, and I think that tag has missed a thread or two.
posted by zachlipton at 11:28 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

From Buzzfeed:

Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, chairman of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus, criticized FBI Director James Comey on Monday for his decision to inform Congress of new information found in the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

“I think this was probably not the right thing for Comey to do — the protocol here — to come out this close to an election, but this whole case has been mishandled and now it is what it is,” Jordan told Fox News radio host Brian Kilmeade in an interview.

Geeze, when even the Freedom Caucus guy thinks Comey made a bad call...
posted by yasaman at 11:31 AM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

melissasaurus: Beyond just the fact that the Wikileaks emails are meant to hurt Clinton's chances in this election, they also create a chilling effect for anyone who might want to work for her -- it's letting you know that if you work on Clinton's campaign, in the Clinton White House, for the DNC, or pretty much anywhere else that Wikileaks decides is pro-Clinton, be ready to have all of your private communication made public. If you support Clinton, however tenuously, you've given up your right to privacy (in their minds). It's only a matter of time before all Clinton small-dollar donors are doxxed, if they haven't been already. It's an intimidation tactic in addition to an electioneering tactic.

It's not just Wikileaks. 8chan doxxed over 50 journalists they labelled "nevertrump" in the middle of October. With home addresses and other personal details. Other alt-right Trump supporters have been sending antisemitic death threats to Jewish journalists for the last couple of months. The latest was Politico reporter Hadas Gold.
posted by zarq at 11:32 AM on October 31, 2016 [43 favorites]

Well, what was actually done was the near total destruction of the American welfare system, the War on Drugs accelerating as the number of black men incarcerated reached ever high peaks.

If that's what you mean by "victory", if that's what you mean by "fighting" than yeah, I hope Clinton doesn't follow her husband's path for "fighting". We can't take many more "wins" like that.

Welfare reform was in no sense a victory. It was Clinton preventing a major defeat from becoming a total rout but with his party falling down behind him like a cheap tent. In both the House and in the Senate the Democratic Party was almost exactly evenly split, as many to within one voting for Welfare Reform as voting against it.

You want to know how much of a rout it could and would have been without him? Simple. The initial version of Welfare Reform would have quite literally ended both food stamps and medicaid almost entirely. (It would have sent the money for both programs to the states to spend how they wished with no need to spend it on either). Clinton had no effective backup from his party and managed to save both food stamps and medicaid from the ruins.

I'm hoping she's learned from the humiliating defeat her husband suffered, the ongoing humiliation and defeat of Obama, and she's going to come out fighting without any of this bipartisan bullshit.

Oh, she's going to be bipartisan - for her agenda but peeling away members of the GOP if any can be had. She needs two years of the Senate to get her appointments rammed through - including Scalia's replacement and probably Ginsberg's. Appointments matter a lot - especially when you can nod through certain really useful cases to a now friendly Supreme Court.

If she can have the House and the Senate for just two years the Republican Party should start begging for mercy. She wants a Voting Rights Act. Automatic Voter Registration, returning the right to vote to felons, and various other things that fix Republican voter suppression.
posted by Francis at 11:32 AM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

I really don't understand why anyone would think that it isn't problematic for today's top two news stories to be about Clinton "corruption." You can't tell me it wouldn't be better if the top two stories were about Trump corruption.

Oh don't get me wrong, the focus of the media on Clinton "corruption" over Trump corruption is EXTREMELY problematic. This is also what the norm has been - so yes, that is awful, and it has been awful for a long time, and I really wish it would change now - just as I have wished for that to be the case for pretty much the length of the Trump campaign. My point is that these leaks are just background noise at this point as far as affecting anything, and that I don't see them as reason to despair over how the election will fare.

I'm trying to be positive, damn it.
posted by MysticMCJ at 11:35 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Did we have the "motherlode" breaking Trumpnews yet? Here.

First time someone claimed to find gold in Grand Rapids i guess.
posted by Namlit at 11:36 AM on October 31, 2016

Chris Wallace

Ugh, I don't know why my iPad autocorrected Mathews to Wallace, but there you have it. Sorry!
posted by xyzzy at 11:39 AM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

The same shit came up during the Clinton v. Trump debates, with people convinced she was somehow coached ahead of time because she (gasp) had prepared to answer some really obvious questions that anyone paying attention could have predicted.

Especially since the topics, but no the individual questions, were released in advance. ("America's Direction," "Achieving Prosperity," and "Securing America.") I have no doubt Hillary's team put together a list of 10 or so likely specific questions related to each topic and built answers for them.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:40 AM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

"I have no doubt Hillary's team put together a list of 10 or so likely specific questions related to each topic"

Just 10? That seems a little low on the Knope Preparation Scale.
posted by komara at 11:46 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

EMAILS!
‏@mattyglesias

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┓┏┓┏┓┃ / EMAILS
┛┗┛┗┛┃ノ)
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posted by stolyarova at 11:47 AM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

> Clinton had no effective backup from his party and managed to save both food stamps and medicaid from the ruins.

Francis, do you know of any youtube videos or documentary pieces that talk about this? I'm curious and want to learn more about it.
posted by INFJ at 11:49 AM on October 31, 2016

James Carville, wearing a wrinkled grey tee shirt for a reaction segment, just freaked out on a reporter on MSNBC. He became increasingly agitated as the reporter probed impressions of Comey over time and finally exploded in accusations that Republicans are in collusion with the KGB (which is actually now the FSB) in an assault on the republic.
posted by xyzzy at 11:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

For the ultimate expression of Republican hypocrisy on the Clinton email nonsense, I give you this op-ed in the WSJ, the thesis of which is nicely summed up in this passage:

Instead, Mr. Comey acceded to the apparent wish of President Obama that no charges be brought. There is precedent for that too—older and less honorable. It goes back to the 12th century when Henry II asked, “who will rid me of this troublesome priest?” The king’s eager subordinates duly proceeded to murder Archbishop Thomas Becket at the altar of Canterbury Cathedral. That choice—to follow the sovereign’s wish—left Mr. Comey facing only further dishonor if he did not disclose the newly discovered emails and they leaked after the election.

And who is it that wrote this breathless piece of hyperbole over some maybe perhaps mishandled pieces of information that might have in hindsight contained classified information?

Michael Mukasey.
Michael. Fucking. Mukasey.

Michael "Alberto Gonzales did a bad bad thing firing US Attorneys who wouldn't go along with his program of politically motivated malicious prosecutions, but not all violations of the law are crimes, you know." Mukasey.

Michael "Waterboarding isn't torture, so none of those things are illegal." Mukasey.

Michael "I promise I will recuse myself from anything involving my good friend Giuliani...oh, he's getting uncomfortably close to a police bribery scandal my department is investigating? What, I just have family members working on the case for his presidential campaign. I'm totally hands off guys." Mukasey

Michael "Let's not talk about whether this wiretapping may have been illegal, rather engage in wild speculation as to whether this could have prevented 9/11 in some fantasy universe of mine." Mukasey.

Somewhere in an alternate universe where Dante's hell exists, there is a section in the lake of boiling pitch for AGs who use their office as a partisan weapon. And there are two spots next to John Mitchell for Alberto Gonzales and Michael Mukasey.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 11:52 AM on October 31, 2016 [39 favorites]

You know, Hillary Clinton's attempt at healthcare reform should definitely count as the sotonohito definition of fighting like hell. And I tend to agree with Francis, given the political environment she was in at the time, that kind of fighting is quixotic and oftentimes counterproductive.

I also don't think that we should assume that she is unaware that the political environment has changed. Her policy proposals certainly seem very aware of the shift.
posted by bardophile at 11:54 AM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

xyzzy: "James Carville, wearing a wrinkled grey tee shirt for a reaction segment, just freaked out on a reporter on MSNBC."

Classic Carville.
posted by boo_radley at 11:55 AM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Trump: I’d ‘Get The Electric Chair’ If I Shared Questions Like DNC Boss

Wait a second, but I thought he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not get arrested.

Which is it, Donny?
posted by Sara C. at 11:59 AM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

A politically-active family member of mine (like, has worked on at least one campaign every 2 years since ~2002) raised a different but related issue. The Republican party (both parties to an extent, but especially the republicans) have a "to the victor go the spoils" system where the cronies of the winning candidate effectively take over the local, state, whatever-level apparatus when they win. The tea party wave actually caused a huge problem for moderate republicans in this sense; not only did they get primaried from the right, as you saw, but they also got cut off from back room fundraising coordination, strategy meetings, etc.

He thinks that with Trump winning the nomination, it's going to be like the tea party on steroids. Crazy Trump supporters (which... yeah) are going to be taking over the R party machinery and completely fucking up the program for moderate / bipartisan outreach. In a way they'll be LUCKY if disengagement and lack of experience is the worst of it.

I'm a little surprised by this; I thought the Republican apparatus was generally well organized, in a vaguely authoritarian way. This is the first thing that makes me think that Trump's whole ... phenomenon .... will have consequences for them.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:01 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Has anyone looked into unsolved 5th Avenue murders yet?
posted by vbfg at 12:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

Wait a second, but I thought he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not get arrested.

He may get arrested, but he claimed he would not lose a single vote.
posted by xyzzy at 12:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

Has anyone looked into unsolved 5th Avenue murders yet?

Or into rapidly vanishing electric chairs? (I mean, if I got an electric chair, I wouldn't even know where to put it. But Trump...)
posted by Namlit at 12:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

@mattmfm:

Gallup finds no change to Clinton's favorability following Comey letter.

This race is about as stable as they get.

posted by zombieflanders at 12:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

I thought the Republican apparatus was generally well organized, in a vaguely authoritarian way.

Totally just off the top of my head from soaking in wonky media for the past couple decades: it used to be, but the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus was an insurgency from within the party itself that introduced a much greater element of factionalism, purges, circular firing squads etc....

Lie down with people who mistrust expertise and the very concept of facts, get up with a clowncar full of idiots as your party's grassroots organizers.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [26 favorites]

I also don't think that we should assume that she is unaware that the political environment has changed. Her policy proposals certainly seem very aware of the shift.

One might even say that she...
( ∙_∙) ( ∙_∙)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■)
...felt the Bern.

YEAAAAAAAHHH!
posted by tonycpsu at 12:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

I don't know if this has been posted, but Lawfare has a pretty thorough analysis of Comey's decision and disclosures:

James Comey, Hillary Clinton, and the Email Investigation: A Guide for the Perplexed
posted by Dragonness at 12:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Years ago we had a meta about labeling links to wikieaks because some Mefites with certain government jobs were forbidden from viewing them in any context and I was wondering if this was a problem for them still.

It's still a problem. Folks I know who still have clearances are not allowed to look at Wikileaks.

Of course, with the sheer numbers of clearance holders out there, this policy has a wonderful chilling effect against disclosure of any Wikileaks material.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 12:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Question: Does the 51/50 Senate include a certain independent who caucuses with the democrats?
posted by xyzzy at 12:13 PM on October 31, 2016

Question: Does the 51/50 Senate include a certain independent who caucuses with the democrats?

Yes.
posted by chris24 at 12:14 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

WTF happened to Wikileaks? I used to say that even if Assange was a bad person at leas Wikileaks was doing good stuff, but lately they seem to have given up on leaking and just become a Republican propaganda mill.

Francis Oh, she's going to be bipartisan - for her agenda but peeling away members of the GOP if any can be had.

I think her odds there are somewhat less than zero. There are no members of the Republican party to peel away. They, unlike the Democrats, have party discipline and they, unlike the Democrats, have one hell of a hardline base willing to primary the shit out of anyone who gets too friendly with the other side or shows insufficient ideological purity.

She needs two years of the Senate to get her appointments rammed through - including Scalia's replacement and probably Ginsberg's. Appointments matter a lot - especially when you can nod through certain really useful cases to a now friendly Supreme Court.

Which means that step one has to be obliterating the filibuster, or at least scrapping it for Judicial appointments. Because the absolute best case scenario for the Democrats this election doesn't give them 60 votes in the Senate.

The question here is whether or not Clinton can get the Democrats in the Senate to agree to end the filibuster (at least for Judicial appointments). If yes, than she can get her picks on the Supreme Court, if no the Republicans have already told us what their plan is: block anyone Clinton nominates and allow the Court to shrink rather than permitting her to seat anyone.

And the odds vastly favor shrinkage from the Democratic Justices, the Republican Justices are all young (by Supreme Court standards), while many of the Democratic Justices are elderly even by Supreme Court standards.

If she can have the House and the Senate for just two years the Republican Party should start begging for mercy. She wants a Voting Rights Act. Automatic Voter Registration, returning the right to vote to felons, and various other things that fix Republican voter suppression.

She can't have that. The House is not possible this election. I'm down with all of the policies you list, but they won't be enacted because the House is flat out guaranteed to be Republican and they use the ~~Pedophile Rule~~ Hastert Rule, so even if there were moderate Republicans to work with (there aren't) it wouldn't add up to a majority of the majority so even if in theory Clinton could wrangle a majority of the votes in the House between Democrats and a few disaffected Republicans it wouldn't work.

As snofoam mentioned the only real hope for voting reform is getting her picks into the Court ASAP and then getting favorable rulings that find gerrymandering to be unconstitutional. And I'm doubtful that would be quick enough to change things in 2018.

After 2018 the wheels come off, the Republicans retake the Senate, and Clinton is back to using a comically large rubber stamp to veto every crazy ass thing they pass. She has two years (maybe) of the Senate. After 2018 we're back to the obstruction dance where the Republicans can stop everything and so they will.
posted by sotonohito at 12:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Question: Does the 51/50 Senate include a certain independent who caucuses with the democrats?

Two independents: Sanders and King, both of whom caucus with the Democrats for committee assignment purposes.
posted by Talez at 12:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

One might even say that she...

...felt the Bern.

Yeah, I'm starting to get "why can't we have BERNIE!" stuff pop up on my Facebook and it's like, WE DO HAVE BERNIE THOUGH
posted by zutalors! at 12:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

I thought the Republican apparatus was generally well organized, in a vaguely authoritarian way.

In addition to soren_lorensen's good point about the relatively recent Tea Party-driven changes, think of the whole process as having two distinct parts:

Presidential elections
All other elections

The Democrats spend much of their energy on 1. The GOP spends much of its energy on 2 and cultivates a deep bench that they actively develop for races up and down the ballot.

And each party has voters that conform to those parts. Certain demographic groups have always and will always vote for Insert Republican Here, regardless of what it's for or when the election is, but other demographic groups have always and will always vote for Insert Democrat Here every four years.

So this year makes it look like Republicans are dying out. Don't hold your breath until 2018 on that.
posted by Etrigan at 12:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Comey channels J. Edgar Hoover

Anyone who goes to work every day in a building named after J. Edgar Hoover must always remember that he is running an agency that abused our democracy continuously when Hoover was running it, for nearly five decades. Hoover's harassment of his political enemies, combined with a strong penchant for blackmail, reached a heinous peak in the 1960s when he used secret tapes from the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s bedroom to try to scare the civil rights leader into committing suicide.

By going public the way he did last Friday, Comey has actually taken Hoover's secret abuses a step further. His gratuitous disclosure of the discovery of new emails (which may or may not have anything to do with Hillary Clinton) has done more to politicize the bureau than anything done by any other FBI director since Hoover died in office in 1972.

posted by homunculus at 12:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

In the UK, we have a classification system that goes Official, Official-Sensitive, Secret, Top Secret. By default, any government document is Official, while Official-Sensitive is basically a mark to note something is a bit more sensitive. Is that roughly the same as Confidential in the US system?

Not really. The US (military, at least) has For Official Use Only, which is "not formally classified but don't leave it in your car, dumbass", but Confidential is still classified-classified.

More explanation here.
posted by Etrigan at 12:35 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'm interested in slicing some data on the relationship between tea-party-ism and the presence of a credible democratic electoral that within a district. In other words, does having a less gerrymandered district allow for a reduction in ideological purity to allow candidates to compete in the general election?

Also, listened to the new TAL this morning. Ugh.
Feel the need to remind all white people that saying you're not racist is not an acceptable prefix to racism...
posted by kaibutsu at 12:36 PM on October 31, 2016

FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing: Source
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [40 favorites]

The George W. Bush White House ‘Lost’ 22 Million Emails

Does Anyone Know What Happened to Those 22 Million Emails From the Bush White House? Did you look in the couch?
posted by homunculus at 12:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Trump’s rally in Las Vegas on Sunday

I just spent three days away from home blissfully detached from the campaign. But all good things must end.

SCENE: LAX Terminal 3, Sunday evening.

TEXT CONVERSATION AS FOLLOWS

Me: Ugh. Flight's pushed back over an hour.

Friend: Bummer.

Me: Oh also, I was just standing next to Mike Tyson. He's actually pretty tiny.

Friend: WHAT?

Me: Yeah, he was standing in front of the charging station so it was kind of awkward asking him to step aside so I could check my phone. He probably thought I was a fan.

Friend: And now?

Me: His handler came over and said it was time to head to their gate. I think they’re going to Vegas. Makes sense. [thinking, you know, boxing infrastructure, The Hangover, etc.]

Friend: Oh yeah, he’s probably going to the Trump rally.

Me: ಠ_ಠ
posted by psoas at 12:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

WTF happened to Wikileaks? I used to say that even if Assange was a bad person at leas Wikileaks was doing good stuff, but lately they seem to have given up on leaking and just become a Republican propaganda mill.

It's personal. Assange is an egotist, misogynist and narcissist cut from the same cloth as Trump.
He doesn't like Hillary Clinton.

Trying to find the article which talks about exactly why he hates her. If I recall correctly it has to do with what she did or said when wikileaks first came onto the world scene. Not sure if it's same one but there is also one where a former employee talks about what Assange is truely like. hint (He's an egotist ass who expects his way or the highway)

Just another example of an organization that spouts some sort of altruistic mission and meaning but in truth is beholden to the whims and ego of it's ruler.
posted by Jalliah at 12:42 PM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing: Source

Urge to kill rising
posted by kirkaracha at 12:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

From the report T.D. Strange linked to above:

According to the former official, Comey agreed with the conclusion the intelligence community came to: "A foreign power was trying to undermine the election. He believed it to be true, but was against putting it out before the election." Comey's position, this official said, was "if it is said, it shouldn't come from the FBI, which as you'll recall it did not."

I'm pretty sure what's happening here is Comey is trying his very best to ensure the GOP retains control of Congress. Only problem is he is a total amateur-hour ratfucker.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 12:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

WTF happened to Wikileaks? I used to say that even if Assange was a bad person at leas Wikileaks was doing good stuff, but lately they seem to have given up on leaking and just become a Republican propaganda mill.

Russian propaganda mill.

Somewhere between their first major leak ("Collateral Murder" video) and now, much of the original staff left to form OpenLeaks. What remains is a cult of personality formed around Julian Assange. According to Pussy Riot member Nadya Tolokno, who visited Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy two years ago:

"He’s in a state of war with the American government. He’s smart and charismatic and will use any means to destroy the American government."

and to the question, "So Julian Assange didn’t deny that he was working with the Russian government?"

"He couldn’t deny it. On the next day after I visited the Ecuadorian Embassy, the head of Russia’s biggest propaganda network, Russia Today, the editor-in-chief came to him and they had a project together. He often works with the Russia propaganda machine, and doesn’t try to hide it."
posted by bluecore at 12:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [36 favorites]

So Trump and Assange and RT are collaborating on a dirty tricks campaign to destabilise Clinton and the election, and the FBI knows about it?

If I were the GOP, I'd be very cautious about firing off huge salvos of investigations after Nov 8. The 'not talking about Trump' tactic probably doesn't hold up under oath, and 'what did you know, when did you know it?' is going to be engaging to deal with.
posted by Devonian at 12:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

You know I been thinking back a few years and I think I may be understanding a friend of mines comments about the FBI now. This person had work ties to the 'alphabet crowd' both national and international. They were quite non specific but did make comments about avoiding the FBI if possible when trying to get info to and from the higher ups because of too much filtering. Never bothered to question what they meant but I figure this sort of partisan hackery may be what the 'filter' thing meant and the 'higher ups' are the current adminstration.

I'm now wondering how much of a 'thing' it really is and how widespread it is. There was also some more specific comments about Obama not always trusting his own alphabet crowd around some particular events and going outside of the country for confirmation. This latest issue sheds some different light on those comments. Yeesh and yowsa.
posted by Jalliah at 12:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I think Assange thinks he can actually play Russia, use them to his advantage and then walk away whistling a jaunty tune whenever he's done with them or things get a little too weird. I'm pretty sure it doesn't actually work like that.

Also, I was talking to my husband the other day when we noted his resemblance to Trevor Goodchild from Aeon Flux, and now I can't unsee it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

Devonian: So Trump and Assange and RT are collaborating on a dirty tricks campaign to destabilise Clinton and the election, and the FBI knows about it?

Here's (probably) the rub: they can't prove it. What do they have? New emails from Hillary's top aide, which might be related to Hillary.

Except he has no idea what's inside the emails, but chose to say "HEY, NEW EMAILS! but it may be nothing." At least he won't get hammered for not telling people about the emails. (Instead, he gets hammered for telling people about the emails ... without knowing what they contain. 11 days from the election.)
posted by filthy light thief at 12:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

James Carville, wearing a wrinkled grey tee shirt for a reaction segment, just freaked out on a reporter on MSNBC

It looked more like a calculated attack than a freakout.

With all the crazy coming from the other side "Republicans are working with the KGB" sounds relatively sane these days.
posted by Coventry at 1:05 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I’d get the electric chair

But he would pay for it out of his foundation and put it in the bar of one of his resorts.
posted by JackFlash at 1:05 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

sotonohito: WTF happened to Wikileaks? I used to say that even if Assange was a bad person at leas Wikileaks was doing good stuff, but lately they seem to have given up on leaking and just become a Republican propaganda mill.

Jalliah: It's personal. Assange is an egotist, misogynist and narcissist cut from the same cloth as Trump.
He doesn't like Hillary Clinton.

Trying to find the article which talks about exactly why he hates her. If I recall correctly it has to do with what she did or said when wikileaks first came onto the world scene. Not sure if it's same one but there is also one where a former employee talks about what Assange is truely like. hint (He's an egotist ass who expects his way or the highway)

Why Julian Assange Doesn’t Want Hillary Clinton to Be President (opinion piece on Observer, which is owned by Donald's son-in-law; June 24, 2016) Wikileaks founder: Hillary will push the U.S. into endless, stupid wars that spread terrorism

Wait, which candidate are you talking about again?

Why WikiLeaks hates Hillary Clinton (Vox, October 11, 2016

“Hillary Clinton is receiving constant updates about my personal situation; she has pushed for the prosecution of WikiLeaks,” he told ITV. “We do see her as more of a problem for freedom of the press generally.”

Also, huh? Are you sure you're not talking about Donald?
posted by filthy light thief at 1:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

Instead, he gets hammered for telling people about the emails ... without knowing what they contain. 11 days from the election.

The problem I have with this is it seems it was only a matter of hours before the nothingburger status of the 'new emails' was revealed to all and sundry.

Either he knew it was bullshit or he didn't, but he wasted not one goddamn second doing a press release about it, knowing that the net effect would be negative on an ongoing campaign for President of the United States.

It's shit like this that makes me want her to hoist the black flag and start slitting throats at 12:01 on January 20.
posted by Mooski at 1:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I can't stand Assange, who claims virtue while catering to Putin, hiding from fairly tame SA charges, and clearly being on the mother of all ego trips -- but that has nothing to do with my strong feeling that the Brazile email telling Podesta the debate question is utter BS. I think it is BS because Brazile is such a pro. I just don't think there is any way she would do it, particularly not by heading her email with "LEMME BE UNETHICAL HERE." And I won't buy it unless the day comes when Brazile says that's her unaltered email.

These are indeed weaponized leaks. Seems like plenty that is emerging is dubious.
posted by bearwife at 1:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

So it turns out it's only 0.01 percent of the population that has a clearance. Hopefully the numbers who look at Wikileaks are large enough that compiling a list of 'traitors' is too hard to do.
posted by Strange_Robinson at 1:12 PM on October 31, 2016

Mooski The director of the FBI serves at the pleasure of the President. If Clinton doesn't fire his sorry ass I'll wonder why.
posted by sotonohito at 1:14 PM on October 31, 2016

I think Assange thinks he can actually play Russia, use them to his advantage and then walk away whistling a jaunty tune whenever he's done with them or things get a little too weird.

I don't think walking away is in his cards and he knows it. I suspect his goal was to wind up living in a condo in Sochi, but now, is starting to feel like that plan is going pear shaped and that he is increasingly more disposable with each passing day.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 1:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

One might even say that she...

...felt the Bern.

Yeah, I'm starting to get "why can't we have BERNIE!" stuff pop up on my Facebook and it's like, WE DO HAVE BERNIE THOUGH

Ugh yeah. A family friend of mine posted some nonsense to facebook about how it wasn't a question of the lesser of two evils, just two evils and against my better judgment I kind of unloaded on him. He's just the pure essence of insulated white male privilege and I am all out of evens for anyone who can't see the danger Trump poses anymore and god damn this EMAILS thing has got my blood pressure up in a bad way so I went a wrote a whole damn book about all the ways Trump is terrible. It wasn't even cathartic. It just made me more angry.

This is looking like it's going to be the longest 7 days of anticipation and stress since the week leading up to my wedding. Someone put me in stasis and wake me up on Jan 21, 2017. Or don't wake me up, if Trump is standing there.
posted by dis_integration at 1:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

sotonohito: The director of the FBI serves at the pleasure of the President. If Clinton doesn't fire his sorry ass I'll wonder why.

And they serve a 10 year term (though many have served for much less than that). In other words ... she has options.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

You know, Hillary Clinton's attempt at healthcare reform should definitely count as the sotonohito definition of fighting like hell.
Which failed, partly leading to the Republicans and Newt Gingrich taking over the House, which was partly blamed by many on Hillary's lack of experience in (excuse the phrase) "The Big Leagues". After which, Bill's successful initiatives were definitely less Liberal and Hillary was nowhere near 'out front' on any of them. She obviously learned from that experience, as well as being in close proximity (but not directly involved) to Obama's health care initiative in 2009. She should be much wiser, but also, as I've noted before, if she gets a Democratic-majority Senate, it'll be more left-leaning than Obama had, with notably fewer "Blue Dogs". Plus a Republican House that is divided with itself (Old School Rs vs. Tea Partiers with maybe a Trumpist third faction) and a Speaker who can't handle anything; if their advantage is narrowed, there could be enough generally disgusted GOPers turning 'traitor' or just failing to vote to get some of Hillary's initiatives through. And she's seen what mid-terms can do first-hand... I'd be shocked if she doesn't lead an unprecedented 2018 GOTV campaign against the (maybe) inevitable loss of the Senate.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

The director of the FBI serves at the pleasure of the President. If Clinton doesn't fire his sorry ass I'll wonder why.
If Obama doesn't save her the trouble on November 9th, I'll wonder why.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [24 favorites]

In other words ... she has options.

Frankly, Comey should recognize that he's destroyed his own credibility and resign. The anti-Clinton factions of the FBI coming to light under this scandal further undermine the credibility of the organization as a whole. He should step down, and a new directors should be nominated and pledge to clean house and restore a culture of integrity.

......snrkrkrkrkr sorry couldn't keep a straight face there
posted by Existential Dread at 1:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

I think Assange thinks he can actually play Russia, use them to his advantage and then walk away whistling a jaunty tune whenever he's done with them or things get a little too weird. I'm pretty sure it doesn't actually work like that.

Seems more likely to me that the first time he sets foot outside that embassy after this election, someone's gonna "accidentally" poke him with an umbrella.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:24 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I think Penn Jillette just tweeted that he voted for HRC.
posted by maudlin at 1:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

With all the crazy coming from the other side "Republicans are working with the KGB" sounds relatively sane these days.

The scary thing is that, if you narrow "Republicans" down to "Trump's circle," there is a lot of very solid evidence that backs that theory up. And none that I know of that refutes it.
posted by msalt at 1:26 PM on October 31, 2016

On today's Democracy Now! (alt link, .torrent, transcripts available on the web site) covered a variety of anti-DAPL protest developments—including bizarre scary footage of a lone guy with an assault rifle and a bandanna over his mouth facing off against protectors, pointing it at the indigenous military veterans trying to de-escalate, later arrested by BIA police, who apparently left behind the ID badge of a DAPL security employee—and a discussion comparing the North Dakota standoff to the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge (yesterday's FPP) and an interview with Michael Isikoff from Yahoo News about the Comey October Surprise.

Evidently Abedin actually mentioned working with emails on devices shared with her husband when she was interviewed by the FBI in April, but they didn't investigate any further at that point.
posted by XMLicious at 1:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

OMG YOU GUYS. Decided to go to the Hillary rally in Cincinnati. Met a guy in the line who had extra VIP tickets. He gave us two of them and now I'm sitting behind the stage and I'm probably going to be on TV and I also convinced the ticket taker to let me keep half of my ticket so I can scrapbook the hell out of that shit OMG I AM SO EXCITED!!!!
posted by cooker girl at 1:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [172 favorites]

Fun slip-up in a Washington Post article:

White House spokesman Josh Earnest praised Comey as “a man of principle...integrity and talent,” and said that President Obama, who nominated Comey three years ago to serve a ten-year sentence, does not believe that he is trying to influence the presidential election.

posted by janewman at 1:29 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Evidently Abedin actually mentioned working with emails on devices shared with her husband when she was interviewed by the FBI in April, but they didn't investigate any further at that point

There's not really anything to investigate. People at State sent emails that tried to talk around classified information for the quickest possible awareness. Those emails are in State's archive, so there's literally no benefit to going through another computer, finding the same things you've already found on everyone else's computer. You can't unring the bell of them being sent, and the versions in the National Archive have been reclassified.

Best solution here would be to write them a check for 2000 and shred the thing.
posted by mikelieman at 1:31 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing: Source

Well yeah, if it got out it might dissuade people from supporting the GOP

boy, that'd be embarrassing for Comey
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

who nominated Comey three years ago to serve a ten-year sentence

Looks like he's about to get seven years of bad conduct time knocked off.
posted by tonycpsu at 1:34 PM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

I'd be shocked if she doesn't lead an unprecedented 2018 GOTV campaign against the (maybe) inevitable loss of the Senate.

I kinda figure that'll be part of Obama's push to fix the gerrymandering problem he's been talking about. If so, they'll try and make it a big organizational effort.

I imagine Comey stays on until these latest emails are sorted through so it doesn't look like anyone's trying to hide anything, then he'll likely be given some strong hints that it might be time to look into retirement options, giving him the chance to resign without being kicked out. With luck, he'll take some of the NYC bureau with him.
posted by gusottertrout at 1:35 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

If Obama doesn't save her the trouble on November 9th, I'll wonder why.

Obama sees nothing wrong, and/or he's not going to rock the boat on the way out. Clinton is going to have to deal with Comey on her own.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:36 PM on October 31, 2016

Obama does nobody any good by speaking up on Comey's fuck-up. If he gets involved, the whole mess gets bigger and gets more attention rather than dying down. He'd give Republicans a chance to say, "Hey, you're trying to interfere!" and all that nonsense.

I'd love it if he got rid of Comey after the election as a favor to Clinton (assuming she wins...turn, turn, turn, spit, curse). But getting into this mess before the election is over only makes it worse when the best thing for all the rational people out there is to let it die off and/or keep all of the stink on Comey rather than spreading it around.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

thanks obama!
posted by entropicamericana at 1:42 PM on October 31, 2016

I think the GOP might take care of Comey itself. The Trumpsters (and Trump himself) are already saying that if this turns out to be a nothingburger (which it likely will), then it proves that Comey is "rigged." They might push to "investigate" him next.

My bet is that Comey will be out no matter what. But it's way better optics if Obama can sit back and let the snake eat its own tail.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:42 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Obama sees nothing wrong, and/or he's not going to rock the boat on the way out. Clinton is going to have to deal with Comey on her own.

I agree, and I'm kinda thinking what happens to Comey and how soon it happens (assuming anything does) will be a good barometer for how fighty she's going to be.

Like I said, I really, really hope his head rolls before the Inaugural Ball.
posted by Mooski at 1:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Even if Comey opens the drawer with the pearl-handled revolver and the fifth of bourbon of his own volition, the Trumpsters will spin it as a vindictive, near-criminal act by a desperate Clinton trying to keep the lid on damning secrets. Then they'll push for Alex Jones to get the job.
posted by Devonian at 1:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Even if Comey opens the drawer with the pearl-handled revolver and the fifth of bourbon of his own volition, the Trumpsters will spin it as a vindictive, near-criminal act by a desperate Clinton trying to keep the lid on damning secrets.

Just like Vince Foster! The bodies are piling up, you could be next America
posted by Existential Dread at 1:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Either he knew it was bullshit or he didn't, but he wasted not one goddamn second doing a press release about it, knowing that the net effect would be negative on an ongoing campaign for President of the United States.

To be fair, it was not a press release. It was a letter to the investigating committee. As a rules oriented by the books guy, he may have been naive enough to assume that Chaffetz wouldn't be tweeting the contents of the letter before the paper had cooled off from running through the copier. However, naïveté seems unlikely given his time in the trenches on the Plame affair and the direction he received from the AG.
posted by xyzzy at 1:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

If you know anyone in a swing state who wants to support a third-party, suggest they take a look at Trump Traders, who will match their single vote for Clinton in a swing state for two votes for a third-party candidate of their choice in a state that's safe for the Democrats. That gets the third party closer to the 5% level which will let them compete more effectively next time around and it helps stop Trump's election.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:51 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

For some reason I'm weirdly fascinated with Comey now.
Like, does he give a shit? And if he does, is that shit in his pants right now?
With Trump, it's like, sociopath gonna sociopath.
With Comey it's like--dude, do you really want to fuel post-election violence? Did that ever cross your mind? Were you trying to do something right and just fucked up? Did you have some idea that you were going to be the savior of the GOP by influencing downticket races?

Or were you just like *let's shit my pants*
posted by angrycat at 1:51 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Top two articles on NYTimes right now are the Abedin emails and Donna Brazile. Ugh. I can't do this anymore. For god's sake, does the entire media just want Donald Trump to be President?
posted by peacheater at 1:51 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

No joke, Facebook just did that "switch your feed back to top stories without telling you" thing, so I found a Republican friend of mine making snarky Vince Foster references to Comey like three days ago. And it feels pointless telling him off now, 'cause again, it was three days ago.

This friend, for what it's worth, is in Texas & I'm in Seattle, so I haven't actually seen him in years. He claims he doesn't want to talk politics on Facebook, but he likes to take drive-by pot shots and then act like it's all a big joke. Naturally I have no idea if he's voting for Trump. But damn does stuff like this piss me off.

(Hilariously, said friend is both Republican and pagan, which I can imagine is comfortable for him only by virtue of hiding behind white male privilege. Ugh.)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

To be fair, it was not a press release. It was a letter to the investigating committee.

That's true; my bad. Have to be careful not to use hyperbole calling bullshit on hyperbole. Heh.
posted by Mooski at 1:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

does the entire media just want Donald Trump to be President?

Yes.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

and I've just spent like three minutes looking at 538 and trying to determine if Florida is a light blue or white.
posted by angrycat at 1:55 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

The media is heavily invested in making it look like a horse race, regardless of all other factors, because horse races draw eyeballs and sell advertisements.
posted by Archelaus at 1:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

I don't think it's the entire media that wants Trump to be president. Certainly it's not the journalists who have to go to his rallies and feel the hate from his followers. Plainly a lot of the news anchors don't want to go through this shit anymore; you can see it on their faces. The producers and the executives, however, are clearly another matter entirely.

Should Clinton win (turn, turn, turn, spit, curse) I'm legitimately worried that a lot of the powers that be in media will want this level of attention for the next election 'cause it gets ratings and sells commercials. I'm worried that they'll want to create another goddamn circus.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

This thread of Twitter replies (idek what these things are called or how they work, I am old etc...) between @robogreen (a journalist, though one I have never head of) and @TravisMannon (the Intercept) is kind of making me see a red haze. It's all in response to this tweet.

Gutcheck me here, is Mannon coming off as as big a prick as I am perceiving him as?
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

and I've just spent like three minutes looking at 538 and trying to determine if Florida is a light blue or white.

Florida is #E2EDFD (rather light blueish).
posted by zachlipton at 1:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

It has a page, which I do not like the look of one bit.
posted by Artw at 2:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Florida is #E2EDFD

And all this time I thought Florida was just #FUCKEDUP
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:05 PM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

Gutcheck me here, is Mannon coming off as as big a prick as I am perceiving him as?

My perceptions are off too; tedious self-righteous bro prickishness seems less significant in the shadows of megapricks like the Trump surrogates. I guess he's doing us a favor by making the Intercept's editorial agenda crystal clear?
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:08 PM on October 31, 2016

Here in the old country, October has somewhat less than three hours to go.

I am fighting the notion that if I drink all the gin in one giant G&T mixed in a measuring jug I'll be in November that much quicker.
posted by Devonian at 2:12 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Side note: I have a weird affection for Glenn Greenwald because he looks like Gentleman Caller. This election is making me rethink that in a big way.
posted by pxe2000 at 2:12 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Sure, but so is "authentic." Wikileaks should really have no credibility left, and the only people using them as evidentiary proof tend to have a motive to impugn Hillary for anything and everything.

It is very close to a certainty that the emails from John Podesta's inbox being leaked are authentic. During its entire 10 year history, there have been exactly zero credible indications that WL has forged or otherwise doctored any of the documents they have leaked. Podesta's emails in particular are interesting in this regard, as the leak includes DKIM headers. If you trust Google's PKI (which you really should), then a huge chunk of the emails can be (and have been) cryptographically proven to be authentic.

It is also very interesting that posters here are claiming they are inauthentic or forged, when exactly 0 public figures have stepped forward and indicated any of the leaked documents have been doctored.
posted by ugly at 2:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

Side note: I have a weird affection for Glenn Greenwald because he looks like Gentleman Caller. This election is making me rethink that in a big way.

I've been following Greenwald's coverage, and I'm curious why you're rethinking him? As far as I can tell, he's just a non-partisan reporting what he has evidence to report.
posted by ugly at 2:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

That was a joke. Carry on.
posted by pxe2000 at 2:21 PM on October 31, 2016

Beyond just the fact that the Wikileaks emails are meant to hurt Clinton's chances in this election, they also create a chilling effect for anyone who might want to work for her -- it's letting you know that if you work on Clinton's campaign, in the Clinton White House, for the DNC, or pretty much anywhere else that Wikileaks decides is pro-Clinton, be ready to have all of your private communication made public.

This is WikiLeaks working as intended, as far as I'm concerned. You are working in an official capacity for a campaign for public office and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public? Good.
posted by indubitable at 2:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

exactly 0 public figures have stepped forward and indicated any of the leaked documents have been doctored.

Donna Brazile has publicly stated that she did not do the thing that the Podesta emails are supposedly smoking gun proof that she did. So there's one public figure indicating that some of the leaked documents have been doctored.
posted by Sara C. at 2:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

Also, NPR presages every story about Wikileaks emails with "not confirmed" "not yet authenticated" "possibly forged" etc.
posted by Sara C. at 2:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Campaign people should be able to spitball ideas of varied quality and feasibility without having to worry that partisan organizations are going to steal and selectively leak them to make them look as incompetent and malicious as they possibly can.
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [41 favorites]

Wikileaks is now basically limited to information that nation-states and other actors are willing to feed it. It's partisan nature in terms of drip leaking breaking news to influence the election to maximum impact has caused it's credibility to drop to rock bottom levels.

Seriously would any whistleblower really seriously consider going with Wikileaks as a disclosure mechanism at this point?
posted by vuron at 2:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I believe the third ratfuck commandment is something like:

Make sure your note is brief
Couch it in civility
Leave the details vague so you can have deniability.
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [24 favorites]

HuffPo apparently has a second source on the Comey-not-wanting-to-blame-Russia-because-of-the-election thing.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

This is WikiLeaks working as intended, as far as I'm concerned. You are working in an official capacity for a campaign for public office and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public? Good.

Yep, all those people writing about problems in their families, their health, the mental health of their co-workers, they should be scared. They deserve to have all that out there for public consumption because they happen to be friends with or related to someone who works for Clinton.
posted by xyzzy at 2:31 PM on October 31, 2016 [63 favorites]

He claims he doesn't want to talk politics on Facebook, but he likes to take drive-by pot shots and then act like it's all a big joke.

This is my pet peeve! These people get my goat like nothing else.
posted by sallybrown at 2:32 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

This is WikiLeaks working as intended, as far as I'm concerned. You are working in an official capacity for a campaign for public office and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public? Good.

I could see it as being good if all the leaking wasn't so blatantly partisan. Where are all the private emails from the GOP side of the fence? Betcha they do lots of shitty things too. Would at least be nice to have some even stevening going on.

Unitil Wikileaks decides not to be partisan shitheads it is not 'working as intended'.
posted by Jalliah at 2:32 PM on October 31, 2016 [37 favorites]

Donna Brazile has publicly stated that she did not do the thing that the Podesta emails are supposedly smoking gun proof that she did. So there's one public figure indicating that some of the leaked documents have been doctored.

Actually, she didn't. She heavily implied that things in leaked emails weren't true, but never actually pointed to a specific example of doctored emails. Which is even slimier. Because since she won't point to a specific email being doctored (which she has huge incentive to do as this is damaging her career), we know that she's lying.

"If she wants to say an email is doctored or fake, she should point to them and say it. She won't, for obvious reasons."
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/785920753132724224
posted by ugly at 2:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is WikiLeaks working as intended, as far as I'm concerned. You are working in an official capacity for a campaign for public office and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public? Good.

I've ended up having much more mixed feelings about radical transparency after this round of leaks - I would rather have a better official process for what needs to be transparent than an endless series of hacks, because I feel like "let's make every email public regardless" is mostly creating an endless string of private-details-badly-made-public and things-that-just-aren't-important.

I think that "your every single word could be leaked at any time" isn't good for problem-solving, and I'd like there to be a better solution than how Wikileaks is working right now, even though as a general thing I feel that the real wrongdoing and impropriety they've revealed should be made known to the public.

I guess I've started to see that even the government needs at least a little bit of privacy if people are going to be able to talk frankly to each other. I think that's hard to balance with the public's right to know, and I think most government stuff needs to be publicly accessible, but the way it works right now isn't ideal.
posted by Frowner at 2:36 PM on October 31, 2016 [27 favorites]

I could see it as being good if all the leaking wasn't so blatantly partisan. Where are all the private emails from the GOP side of the fence? Betcha they do lots of shitty things too. Would at least be nice to have some even stevening going on.

Unitil Wikileaks decides not to be partisan shitheads it is not 'working as intended'.

So what should Wikileaks do?

They have been recently handed at least two major leaks from either insiders or hackers (it's not at all clear the source of their leaks, and "PUTIN RUSSIA" has never actually been accused by any US official beyond Hillary Clinton at the 3rd debate). For whatever reason, they were handed a huge amount of stuff that wound up being pretty bad for Democrats.

Should they withhold publishing until they have something equivalent from the other camp?
posted by ugly at 2:36 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

People should be able to work for political campaigns without having to agree to the kind of public disclosure of communications that government workers accept. And even government workers have nondisclosure protections under FOIA for emails and other documents during pre-decisional deliberations (such as drafts of a report or emails discussing whether to approve a project).
posted by sallybrown at 2:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

This is WikiLeaks working as intended, as far as I'm concerned. You are working in an official capacity for a campaign for public office and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public? Good.

But this is different. There is always a possibility that if you do something shitty, other people will find out about it and discuss it publicly. That's precisely why the term whistleblower exists. The fact that people have reputations is one of the reasons we have to not do shitty things.

What's happening here is that there's an increased chance that someone associated with a campaign could have everything about them revealed and picked through: jokes they've made, stuff viewed out of context, their personal and family business unrelated to the campaign, something they were briefly angry about but soon cooled off and never followed through on, a stupid misunderstanding they once had, etc... People have many thoughts in their head they never say out loud or act on. Organizations work the same way, but they have to communicate internally to get to that point.

Pervasive surveillance is psychologically damaging. Privacy is a fundamental human need. Subjecting people who did not sign up for this to have their communications monitored, released to the public, and carefully scrutinized by the world is not ok. And there's a chilling effect on getting anyone to work for a political campaign if they know their personal lives and communications are fair game for people to point and stare.

There's a huge difference between "I have uncovered this specific act of wrongdoing and will make it public so that people are accountable for their actions" and "I'm going to pick through everything this person ever said and dig out anything that might be embarrassing."
posted by zachlipton at 2:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [84 favorites]

As a rules oriented by the books guy

I don't want to be cranky, but can we please not do this?

He's not a rules oriented by the books guy. If he were, he would not have had that first press conference at all. He would not have written up a set of extraneous attacks on Clinton that he later had to almost entirely walk back. He would not have issued this latest bullshit.

What he is, is someone who just does what he wants to do, and pretends to be a rules oriented by the books guy when that provides him cover for doing what he just wanted to do anyway. This is what he has revealed himself to be.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 2:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [39 favorites]

The force is strong with Bernie Sanders today.
posted by peeedro at 2:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

I do feel that the situation right now grew out of the government's shameful treatment of people who revealed real and serious wrongdoing on the part of the US, though. Perhaps if people had focused on confronting the actual wrongdoing instead of jailing or exiling the people who revealed it, we'd have a better political landscape now.
posted by Frowner at 2:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public?

A junior staffer's suicide attempt was made public by the Podesta hack.

Assange doesn't give a fuck about who he hurts: thats why his collaboration with the Guardian (and with Snowden) ended, because they wanted to minimise the potential harm to those outside positions of power. Collateral damage is all part of the fun to him, because everyone on an email thread is implicated. If you're comfortable with that, take a good look at yourself, and if you're still feeling okay after that, dump your email archive into a zipfile and post the link.
posted by holgate at 2:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [97 favorites]

So what should Wikileaks do?

Your hero Greenwald called Assange a sociopath for releasing unredacted and immaterial giant data dumps that violate the privacy of innocent and unrelated individuals. So maybe start there.
posted by xyzzy at 2:40 PM on October 31, 2016 [47 favorites]

I don't know about you but I always cc the entire company on every work email I send. Then I send my old okcupid convos to my mom and tattoo "peed my pants in class once" on my forehead
posted by theodolite at 2:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [36 favorites]

I think of Wikileaks and Snowden as effective and important when they are disclosing information that is of true, material, and imminent importance to the public. Gross and continuing violations of our constitution by government officials, for example. With care taken not to disclose anything irrelevant, not to violate the privacy of others without a very good reason.

Donna Brazile leaking primary debate questions comes nowhere near that level, to me.

And a wholesale dumping of masses of non-governmental email (like the Podesta dumps) with no care to strain out things that don't cry out for disclosure...that says a lot about the justification and motives of the people leaking. Podesta'a risotto is not the Pentagon Papers.
posted by sallybrown at 2:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

did u guys hear theodolite peed his pants
posted by beerperson at 2:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [47 favorites]

Your hero Greenwald called Assange a sociopath for releasing unredacted and immaterial giant data dumps that violate the privacy of innocent and unrelated individuals. So maybe start there.

I agree with Greenwald's take. There's a really great Q&A Greenwald did with Naomi Klein discussing the Podesta leak and Assange's filter-free dumps.

FWIW, I agree strongly with Greenwald that it is irresponsible to do full, raw dumps as WL is doing. He says, and I agree, that it seems WL is on its own in terms of justifying this behaviour.

That said, you never answered the question. Whether or not WL filters their leaked documents is immaterial to the question of their partisan leaks. Should WL withhold leaks damaging to Democrats and, like, what, wait around so something equally damaging for the other side shows up?

I guess what I mean, is all these folks upset at Wikileaks for being partisan, should they just leak nothing? Leaks generally hurt one side and support another. If an organization is built around handling leaks, it seems obvious that sometimes one team will get hit, and other times, another will get hit.
posted by ugly at 2:48 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Should they withhold publishing until they have something equivalent from the other camp?

We have plenty of models for what journalism based on hacked and stolen documents can look like. It tends to involve meticulous reporting, efforts to carefully select documents relevant to compelling interests of journalistic value and exclude irrelevant material (especially material that would cause unnecessary harm to people not accused of wrongdoing), more reporting to explain and fill in the context of the documents, discussions with the parties involved to give them a chance to respond and to make a case that release of the information would be harmful or dangerous in ways that might not be foreseeable, and reporters knowing their source, making efforts to verify their integrity, and understanding their motives, especially if there is reason to believe that the information is being disclosed to serve broader purposes beyond altruistically informing the public.

It's still a frightening step, because it involves reporters and editors applying their own judgement that it's ok to take stolen information and publish it, but there are a lot of ways to do it as responsibly as possible, and the Podesta emails fall nowhere near in that category.
posted by zachlipton at 2:49 PM on October 31, 2016 [33 favorites]

Should they withhold publishing until they have something equivalent from the other camp?

There is an incredibly large amount of negative content getting revealed about Deplorable Donald by the mainstream press and ZERO coming from Wikileaks. If that isn't a smoking gun as to their/his* partisan orientation, I don't know what is. They could have all his tax records from the last 30 years and 100,000 'deleted' Trump Corporation emails and you'll never see them, as long as they're both working against the 'common enemy'. And when a Democratic Administration decided to prosecute Manning, it became ENEMY #1 (and there is no #2).

*it's hard to see Wikileaks as anything more than Assange's personal operation anymore
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:49 PM on October 31, 2016 [33 favorites]

I could see it as being good if all the leaking wasn't so blatantly partisan. Where are all the private emails from the GOP side of the fence? Betcha they do lots of shitty things too. Would at least be nice to have some even stevening going on.

Unitil Wikileaks decides not to be partisan shitheads it is not 'working as intended'.

Yeah—if Wikileaks is not releasing or not soliciting leaks on one end of the political spectrum, it's kind of analogous to pharma companies funding genuine and ethical scientific research, but then only publishing the studies that serve their own purposes.
posted by XMLicious at 2:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

ugly: During its entire 10 year history, there have been exactly zero credible indications that WL has forged or otherwise doctored any of the documents they have leaked.

I'm not particularly worried about Wikileaks forging documents. I'm worried about the FSB or the GRU possibly forging documents.
posted by bluecore at 2:51 PM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

I'm probably on the fringe, but I would take issue with similar Wikileaks leaks of RNC stuff, unless it rose to the level of serious evidence that someone like Putin was actively bribing Trump (in other words, "our government is in imminent danger of falling under foreign control"). Not just "this guy is a racist sexual predator who doesn't pay taxes."
posted by sallybrown at 2:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

JFC with the Brazile email. There are plenty of ways to determine the provenance of an email. The Flint Lead question was such a no-brainer that for all we know the "revealing" subject line could have been sarcastic: "Oh hey here's a question in advance."

Even if they handed the campaign every single question, there's no evidence of impropriety by Clinton herself.
posted by aspersioncast at 2:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

This is my pet peeve! These people get my goat like nothing else.

So, you would say it's Your Pet Goat? (Simpler times. Simpler times.)
posted by The Bellman at 2:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

So what should Wikileaks do?

They should quit.
Wikileaks are not the heroes you want them to be.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [26 favorites]

It's still a frightening step, because it involves reporters and editors applying their own judgement that it's ok to take stolen information and publish it, but there are a lot of ways to do it as responsibly as possible, and the Podesta emails fall nowhere near in that category.

This is a confusing thing to read. *ANY* investigative reporting worth anything is based on material that somebody wants buried. If a journalist isn't building networks of sources, finding juicy tidbits, tracking down leads, and examining leaked material, what are they doing other than rewriting pressers?

This isn't some brave new world. Reporting on leaked documents is just standard reporting.

There is an incredibly large amount of negative content getting revealed about Deplorable Donald by the mainstream press and ZERO coming from Wikileaks.

Wikileaks is a publisher of leaked documents. If they are not receiving leaks, they can't publish. I guess you're asserting that they DO have all sorts of leaked docs damaging to Republicans (which, btw, past leaks have been hugely damaging to parties and governments all across the spectrum), and are withholding them for partisan reasons. If that's true, I'd agree with you, WL is a bad actor. But you have no evidence of that.

I mean, if you look at it, the computer systems and the people involved in these most recent leaks are not at ALL geared toward security. Is it possible that Podesta (whose password was 'p@ssword' and which he emailed his staff) was just a ripe target because of his own technical incompetence? Same with Clinton's private server and the DNC hack. Maybe Democrats are just behind the times security-wise?
posted by ugly at 2:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I guess I can probably honestly say that it's not Wikileaks' fault that the people stealing records from the DNC are probably not stealing equivalent records from the Trump campaign, although at this point I assume they wouldn't publish them even if they had them
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Even if they handed the campaign every single question, there's no evidence of impropriety by Clinton herself.

She knowingly rehearsed a question leaked to her and used that as an unfair advantage in a primary debate?
posted by ugly at 2:57 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm not particularly worried about Wikileaks forging documents. I'm worried about the FSB or the GRU possibly forging documents.

Still, the Gmail DKIM verification means they'd have to hack the emails, leak the documents, hack Google's PKI, etc. Very, very unlikely.
posted by ugly at 2:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I mean, we've had leaked Trump tax returns and audio recordings, although both were individual documents rather than the massive dumps Assange seems to prefer.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:59 PM on October 31, 2016

Since I was a child, I've basically hated all stories where the protagonist is falsely accused of something. I just can't bear everyone pointing fingers at this person, acting like they've done something wrong, when they know in their hearts they're innocent. It doesn't really seem to matter whether I'm reading a boarding school story or a Russian tragedy - if there's that element in the plot I find the book nearly unreadable. This election has felt like a year long version of that story and I can't put the book down even though I want to.

OMG, yes, that's it. I have similar problems, especially in stories where it's all a conspiracy and there's no where to turn and everyone is against the protagonist for unfair or false reasons. I find it viscerally unpleasant to read those kinds of stories. FUCK. No wonder this is so traumatizing.
posted by threeturtles at 3:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [26 favorites]

I, and several others, have repeatedly pointed out that this was an incredibly obvious question.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

She knowingly rehearsed a question leaked to her and used that as an unfair advantage in a primary debate?

I seem to have missed the evidence for this part.
posted by Slothrup at 3:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [37 favorites]

This is WikiLeaks working as intended, as far as I'm concerned. You are working in an official capacity for a campaign for public office and are now concerned that if you do something shitty, it might be made public? Good.

So Wikileaks is supposed to hack private individuals and private organizations, looking for dirt based on personal vendettas? And they're supposed to release the information with no regard to the privacy of every single person even tangentially or several degrees removed from the supposed targets? And they're also supposed to release personal information and privacy data that has no bearing at all to the topics supposedly being targeted; including recordings of telephone calls from parents to children, personal financial data, telephone numbers, and other personally identifiable information?

I say this because this is how Wikileaks has been operating for the past several years (since the majority of the original team left) and even Snowden and Greenwald, among others, have been critical of this mode of operation. By your metric, anybody who knows anybody who might have at one time contacted the DNC or Clinton organizations is fair game no matter how innocuous the communication. In the past, Wikileaks' distributions have put innocent people in harm's way all around the world, so it's really disappointing to see people who have been highly critical of invasions of privacy for the past decade all of the sudden drop their objections just because the target is Clinton and/or the DNC. You can't really square "WikiLeaks working as intended" with a belief that any individual or organization who communicates in private has any right to privacy at all. And that's concerning.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:01 PM on October 31, 2016 [37 favorites]

People do so much publicly-embarrassing stuff over work email. Do one day of doc review, and you'll be over these Podesta emails about 20 mins into the day. The number of affairs that are openly conducted over work email accounts is shockingly high. Even in organizations where the general counsel holds trainings to say basically "don't ever use email."

This all just feels like concern trolling to me.

The other guy is accused of raping a child. Let's have some perspective, please.
posted by melissasaurus at 3:02 PM on October 31, 2016 [92 favorites]

I mean, if you look at it, the computer systems and the people involved in these most recent leaks are not at ALL geared toward security.

As a computer security professional, I can assure you that an overwhelming majority of people using computers to exchange information are "not at ALL geared toward security." Security is to most people an impediment to getting things done. Even knowing the risks of being Podesta'd, I'm not sure there are many people who would go through the time and effort to use a password manager with a secure master password, or adopt two-factor auth.

The idea that there aren't important people at the RNC or within the Trump campaign with easily hackable passwords is laughable. If the wikileaks hackers wanted to pop someone there, they could easily do it.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

Same with Clinton's private server and the DNC hack. Maybe Democrats are just behind the times security-wise?

lol. Seriously? There is just no way that Republicans, as a whole are any better at security just because they have Republican attached to their name. That notion is laughable.

If Trump's campaign is better at security then it's somehow the only part of his campaign that is competent.

No in this case we have likely outside forces going after a particular side for blantently political reasons and Wikileaks is gleefully aiding an abetting.

If they weren't doing it for partisan reasons then they would not be playing politics with it. They clearly are by not only dribbling it out, scheduled with the election but also setting it up with their own words as political. If they weren't partisan they would just dump it all and would have done so long before now.

They are not a neutral party in this.
posted by Jalliah at 3:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [37 favorites]

I think the fact that Assange has been trying to space out/time releases of documents he's had for months for maximum election impact speaks volumes about how he feels about tranparency - its a tool he wants to use towards a specific (Trumpian) political end.

"I have this information about you, see, and I'm going to release it, but I want to wait to release until it can most hurt you - also it will hurt many innocent people but tra la" is a really nasty kind of transparency. Indeed, its a kind of transparency that looks more like ratfucking.

He may be no worse than many of the shittier journalists and political operatives out there, but he's no better. Fuck that guy.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:04 PM on October 31, 2016 [41 favorites]

ugly: Same with Clinton's private server and the DNC hack. Maybe Democrats are just behind the times security-wise?\

The Trump corporate email servers use unpatched, unsupported Windows Server 2003, single factor authentication.
posted by bluecore at 3:04 PM on October 31, 2016 [39 favorites]

I left off my last line: Assange goes in the same basket with James O'Keefe.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [25 favorites]

This isn't some brave new world. Reporting on leaked documents is just standard reporting.

But Wikileaks isn't doing any reporting. Zilch. They're a web host, glorified geocities with a super aggressive and occasionally anti-Semitic twitter account. All the activities I mentioned, real journalists do them with leaked documents, which is the process that brought us the Snowden disclosures, among many other stories.
posted by zachlipton at 3:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

CNN reporting that Senator Burr of NC (R) was caught on tape saying: "nothing made me feel better" than seeing a magazine about rifles "with a picture of Hillary Clinton on the front of it. . . . I was a little bit shocked that -- it didn't have a bullseye on it."
posted by sallybrown at 3:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Even if they handed the campaign every single question, there's no evidence of impropriety by Clinton herself.

She knowingly rehearsed a question leaked to her and used that as an unfair advantage in a primary debate?
posted by ugly at 2:57 PM on October 31 [+] [!]

I said evidence, and there is none. She responded well in the debate to an obvious question, and there is an email sent to the Clinton campaign which mentions that this obvious question will probably be asked.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

And here coooome the Hamilton quotes!
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

o hi. Let's talk about leaks. CNN: In private, Burr quips about gun owners shooting Clinton

Sen. Richard Burr privately mused over the weekend that gun owners may want to put a "bullseye" on Hillary Clinton, according to audio obtained by CNN.
The North Carolina Republican, locked in a tight race for reelection, quipped that as he walked into a gun shop "nothing made me feel better" than seeing a magazine about rifles "with a picture of Hillary Clinton on the front of it."

"I was a little bit shocked at that -- it didn't have a bullseye on it," he said Saturday to GOP volunteers, prompting laughter from the crowd in Mooresville, North Carolina. "But on the bottom right (of the magazine), it had everybody for federal office in this particular state that they should vote for. So let me assure you, there's an army of support out there right now for our candidates."

The comments resemble similar ones made by Donald Trump in August when the GOP nominee said "Second Amendment people" could take matters into their own hands if Clinton became president.

posted by zachlipton at 3:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

Here is the CNN link.
posted by Fongotskilernie at 3:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Franklin Foer of Slate reporting that Trump's campaign possibly set up a secret server to communicate with Russia.
posted by sallybrown at 3:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [75 favorites]

Also, and of more import, in the CNN/Burr link:

But he also bluntly said that if Clinton is elected, he will do everything in his power to deny her the right to fill the vacant Supreme Court slot, aligning himself with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's position on the issue.
"Well, my answer to you would be it isn't going to happen -- period," Burr said when asked about the prospects of President Barack Obama's nominee, Merrick Garland, being confirmed in the lame-duck session of Congress.
Burr added: "And if Hillary Clinton becomes president, I am going to do everything I can do to make sure four years from now, we still got an opening on the Supreme Court."
Burr boasted that he is responsible for the "longest judicial vacancy in history" by denying the confirmation of an Obama judge to serve in the eastern district of North Carolina.

posted by Rumple at 3:12 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

So Wikileaks is supposed to hack private individuals and private organizations, looking for dirt based on personal vendettas?

Wikileaks is a publisher. They do not hack anything themselves.

But Wikileaks isn't doing any reporting. Zilch. They're a web host, glorified geocities with a super aggressive and occasionally anti-Semitic twitter account. All the activities I mentioned, real journalists do them with leaked documents, which is the process that brought us the Snowden disclosures, among many other stories.

I agree wholeheartedly that Wikileaks's position on full, raw, uncensored dumps is terrible and immoral.

I also believe that it's worth reporting on documents that are leaked in this way, and further, it is journalistically unethical to not report on them because they are leaked.

What does this have to do with whether they are forged documents or not?
posted by ugly at 3:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I get that if you oppose Clinton you might see Wikileaks as *helpful*, but I am honestly astounded that you could in good faith argue that they are not partisan actors in this election. He's on the record against Clinton with multiple sources. Pretending neutrality from that organisation is not a good look.

(And do you think radical transparency is a useful tool when it is only aimed at opponents you deem unworthy? Seriously? How do you distinguish it from doxxing in that case?)
posted by frumiousb at 3:14 PM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

So clearly the Clinton camp isn't holding any Trump oppo. I think that was wishful thinking. Buckle up, it's a week long EMAIL DISASTER, CLINTON DOOMED extravaganza.
posted by Justinian at 3:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Wikileaks is a publisher. They do not hack anything themselves.

You are aware that makes them look worse, right?
posted by zombieflanders at 3:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

My dad is a Democratic Party executive and was eligible for VIP seats at today's rally in Cincinnati, but he decided not to go. I would've pushed to go with him if it wasn't Halloween, but as someone unlikely to do any volunteering or other election-related activities I feel that giving out candy is a more civic-minded thing to do tonight.
posted by Small Dollar at 3:16 PM on October 31, 2016

ugly: Still, the Gmail DKIM verification means they'd have to hack the emails, leak the documents, hack Google's PKI, etc. Very, very unlikely.

Not all of the emails DKIM signature verified. That doesn't mean they were altered, obviously. It's a non-standard use of DKIM signatures and the batch analysis mentioned unicode and invisible lines kicking up errors, but we shouldn't treat them like they're coming from a trustworthy source. The New York Times tracked down Trump's retired tax guy in a bagel shop before publishing.
posted by bluecore at 3:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

Pro tip: canvassing on Halloween is as close to adult trick-or-treating as one can get without getting yelled at. I'm on my third peanut butter cup.
posted by sleepy psychonaut at 3:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [113 favorites]

That Slate piece on the Trump/Russia connection is astounding. It's all circumstantial evidence, but getting that many High Gurus of Internet Geekdom to go on record vouching for both the integrity of the metadata and the fishiness of the activity isn't an easy task. Usually if you talk to any three of these people you get four opinions.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [30 favorites]

"I get that if you oppose Clinton you might see Wikileaks as *helpful*, but I am honestly astounded that you could in good faith argue that they are not partisan actors in this election. He's on the record against Clinton with multiple sources. Pretending neutrality from that organisation is not a good look."

A person can have a nuanced opinion about Wikileaks, as I do. While I dislike their method of publishing everything, it is undeniable that WL has uncovered a lot of really bad stuff (see: Afghan War Diaries, for e.g.). I am non-partisan. I agree Wikileaks is partisan in terms of this election. However, every publisher is partisan. WL is the only publisher that actually provides evidence for every single claim they make.

I guess I don't understand: If the source sucks, sure, that's useful to know. But are they speaking the truth? That's what matters.
posted by ugly at 3:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I haven't seen any evidence that anything was forged, and only pretty abstract speculation about it here.

Wikileaks are still partisan and unethical, and represent a handful of foreign actors openly attempting to affect the US election.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

> Your hero Greenwald called Assange a sociopath for releasing unredacted and immaterial giant data dumps that violate the privacy of innocent and unrelated individuals. So maybe start there.

If I remember right, that over this fucked up bit of business back in July:

WikiLeaks Put Women in Turkey in Danger, for No Reason
posted by homunculus at 3:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

Wikileaks may have been just publisher at one time but Assange with his words and actions over the past couple of years has destroyed any notion of neutrality that may have honestly existed in the beginning.

He is nothing but a partisan hack and mercenary for hire now.
posted by Jalliah at 3:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

So clearly the Clinton camp isn't holding any Trump oppo. I think that was wishful thinking. Buckle up, it's a week long EMAIL DISASTER, CLINTON DOOMED extravaganza.

This secret Russian server thing has legs and is about to get up and run. Foer's report says the NYT is also investigating.
posted by sallybrown at 3:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

I... will believe that when I see it. The story having legs I mean.
posted by Justinian at 3:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Franklin Foer of Slate reporting that Trump's campaign possibly set up a secret server to communicate with Russia.

This is an astonishing piece and you should really all be reading it instead of debating Wikileaks for the 100th time. There's no smoking gun, and my Occam sense still wants to point to weird spam stuff through misconfigured and unpatched email severs, but it's damn weird.
posted by zachlipton at 3:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

I mean, at this point there's really only two motivations they have as a publisher for their current actions: either they're choosing to hurt innocent people (Greenwald has noted this may have ended up with Iraqis being tortured and/or killed, for instance), or they're acting upon their own biases to hurt a few people without any regard for collateral damage to anyone else.

Neither are morally or ethically sound, especially from the POV of those who claim to support a strong right to privacy.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

i wish there were more details (on the russia server thing). anyone have the reddit trhead? i can't find it.
posted by andrewcooke at 3:24 PM on October 31, 2016

I heard theodolite peed somebody else's pants
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

But are they speaking the truth? That's what matters.

Truth is more than a matter of a data dump. That's why curation is interesting, important, and crucial to ethics. You can lie without ever telling a lie-- for instance, if you selectively record one side of a spoken conversation and not the person on the other end of the phone. When transparency is only applied to one party, it isn't transparency, it's surveillance.

(And given Assange's obvious bias against Clinton, do you really believe he hasn't either actively solicited material to use against her or is prioritising stolen emails related to her over other material?)

I'm not neutral on him. He's a bully, and no different than a 4Chan doxxing creep going after women who speak up online. Surveillance is not transparency.
posted by frumiousb at 3:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [40 favorites]

Ugh, this theodolite peeing story is really bad optics for Clinton. Buckle up, it's gonna be a rough week.
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [65 favorites]

Wikileaks is a publisher.
So is Vox Day. That doesn't make his Puppies any less Rabid.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

I don't know, but maybe the wikileaks derail needs a home of its own. It's not moving anywhere, and this is already a browser-killing thread..
posted by mumimor at 3:29 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

But are they speaking the truth? That's what matters.

The climategate emails were real but the conclusions drawn initially were wrong. And yet climate science and trust in scientists was irreparably harmed. Meanwhile, Julian was running around crowing and taking undeserved credit for the leak. Seriously, Julian is far from heroic.
posted by xyzzy at 3:29 PM on October 31, 2016 [24 favorites]

Clinton shared the Slate Russian server article on her Facebook page already.
posted by sallybrown at 3:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

FBI Making Inquiry Into Ex-Trump Campaign Manager's Foreign Ties
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Franklin Foer of Slate reporting that Trump's campaign possibly set up a secret server to communicate with Russia.

Hm. I'm no "techie", but this sounds like bad email stuff.
I can only assume you meant to type 'Hillary' instead of 'Trump'.
Hillary is the one with bad email stuff.
Trump is the one with bad women stuff.
What you have typed is very confusing.
Please endeavor not to type such confusing things in the future.
Thank you.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:32 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

ugly: "Wikileaks is a publisher. "

dogg you are going to have to color in a lot more of this picture for this to be a sensible refutation.
posted by boo_radley at 3:34 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

Semi-serious question - what bad actions has Trump accused others of doing that he hasn't yet been caught doing?

Because those will be next to come to light...what a goddamn election.
posted by sallybrown at 3:34 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

I guess I don't understand: If the source sucks, sure, that's useful to know. But are they speaking the truth? That's what matters.

I feel that hacks and dumps of email from a single campaign during an election season does not serve the public interest, especially when there is no criminal act being uncovered. In fact I strongly believe it is corrosive to democracy. It has a very high potential to be tied to corrupt sources, who do not reveal themselves. It's not whistleblowing. It serves the motives of those who refuse to disclose their own identities.
posted by krinklyfig at 3:36 PM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

Actually, she didn't. She heavily implied that things in leaked emails weren't true, but never actually pointed to a specific example of doctored emails. Which is even slimier. Because since she won't point to a specific email being doctored (which she has huge incentive to do as this is damaging her career), we know that she's lying.

"If she wants to say an email is doctored or fake, she should point to them and say it. She won't, for obvious reasons."
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/785920753132724224
posted by ugly at 2:33 PM on October 31 [2 favorites +] [!]

Oh hey, welcome back. It's interesting to note that you are calling others out for drawing conclusions you don't think are based in evidence, only to turn around and do the exact same thing.
posted by Existential Dread at 3:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [24 favorites]

zachlipton, I was right with you until the paragraph about the new server suddenly appearing and the initial Russian DNS query. That's pretty odd.
posted by xyzzy at 3:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

Here's what I don't understand. If you wanted to setup a secret line of communications between the Trump campaign and a Russian bank, why would you use a old Trump marketing email server that had been sitting around for years? Why would you use a server with the domain Trump-Email.com instead of totalrandomnothingtoseehere.com?

One of the weirder parts of the story is that Lichtblau talked to Alfa Bank and the Trump domain soon stopped resolving, even though the bank denied any connection to Trump. The simplest explanation is that someone from Alfa Bank called up someone from the Trump Organization and said "what's with your server?" and they said "I don't know, we don't use that thing anymore, we'll kill it immediately." And yet, they started up with a new hostname a few days later. It's damn odd.

I also have some concerns about a global cabal of DNS experts shifting through logs.
posted by zachlipton at 3:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

You know I think there was some surveillance footage of wet spots in the vicinity of theodolite. I mean I don't want to make any untoward presumptions but there was that incontinence issue. You can connect the dots.
posted by Sublimity at 3:42 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Every political reporter’s campaign tech article ever

[Campaign] gave [Gullible Reporter’s Political Rag] an exclusive look behind the scenes of their digital and data operation. Buried in a nondescript office building on the outskirts of [State Capital], [Candidate]’s digital and data team (internally referred to as Team [Nerd Cliche]) pounds away at their keyboards.

Their office is an open floor plan plastered with posters of [Candidate]’s face overlaid with “[Pop culture reference]”. Its occupants are crammed into tight rows of tables; many are sitting on workout balls instead of chairs. Clad in jeans and t-shirts, an army of 20-somethings are glued to their screens, hacking away at new cutting-edge apps designed to engage [Candidate]’s supporters online.

posted by zachlipton at 3:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

why would you use a old Trump marketing email server that had been sitting around for years? Why would you use a server with the domain Trump-Email.com instead of totalrandomnothingtoseehere.com?

Trump's razor: because it was easier than a new server (look, that server has great security!) and setting up random domain name email redirects is a pain (not gonna buy a new domain name and set off warning flags, nope, and not gonna send my special secret emails through some public forwarding service; those things can be hacked).

Trump is a solid victim of the Dunning–Kruger effect: he believes that he's a genius, and expert on every field he's ever had to connect with (and he's worked hard to fire anyone who could imply otherwise in his presence). So of course the email security measures that he finds complicated are more than enough to stop any hacker, and he's not going to pay attention to any IT techie who tells him otherwise.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

I don't know if this tweet Is legit, but it's making me laugh pretty hard.
posted by sallybrown at 3:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Every political reporter’s campaign tech article ever

Mitt Romney's Project Orca was kind of a fail whale.
posted by adamg at 3:52 PM on October 31, 2016

It's legit! The McMuffin is coming from INSIDE THE SERVER!
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

Trump's razor: because it was easier than a new server (look, that server has great security!) and setting up random domain name email redirects is a pain (not gonna buy a new domain name and set off warning flags, nope, and not gonna send my special secret emails through some public forwarding service; those things can be hacked).

Trump is a solid victim of the Dunning–Kruger effect: he believes that he's a genius, and expert on every field he's ever had to connect with (and he's worked hard to fire anyone who could imply otherwise in his presence). So of course the email security measures that he finds complicated are more than enough to stop any hacker, and he's not going to pay attention to any IT techie who tells him otherwise.

He's also cheap, unless he can find a way for others people money to pay for it or doesn't see a need to spend money. I could totally see a conversation happening about not spending money on stuff they already have and if any security /keeping secret concerns were pointed out him or his people saying no way to new hardware.

As you said he's dumb and doesn't like people around him that seem smarter so he ends up surrounded by people dumber then he is or people who just don't say anything and take the paycheque.
posted by Jalliah at 3:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

The Alfa-Trump thing is proper weird.

If you're just communicating between two systems, you don't even need to go near public DNS - you can have things set up locally to do the translation to IP addresses. Reusing old servers is common enough; they get old quite fast and stop being economic to use for the latest projects but are still there to use for smaller tasks which tend to inherit aspects of the old configuration. So I can quite see someone saying 'we need to run up a quiet email service for this particular task' and settling on a retired-but-still-connected box; just configure the new service with the old addresses.

Not, perhaps, best practice, but who knows what level of security and/or secrecy was intended. That does count a bit against it being illicit, because it would have been easy to do it better, but the whole thing really doesn't pass the sniff test.

I await - and expect - interesting developments.
posted by Devonian at 3:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Come on, every single detail of the Trump campaign (and before that the Trump business) is ridiculously amateurish. Why would his internet security be different? The November surprise may be that he is the real life Manchurian candidate, and that would be totally unsurprising, but also crazy at a level I couldn't have imagined just 10 years ago. (After Palin, everything is possible..)
posted by mumimor at 3:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

The Hillary app digital HQ is decorated for Halloween!

YAAAASSS they dressed up Winnie (the dog) as a bee! STONE COLD BEE (she's a girl dog)

Re: Trump behaving like a proper democratic head of state, whoa, yeah, no. I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but in all seriousness, read Bertolt Brecht's "The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui."

[...] Arturo Ui, the unlikely leader of the protection racket. Ui is the original wimpy kid: bandy-legged, snivelling, frightened by loud bangs and with a moustache that makes it look as if a slug has taken up residence on his top lip. He is about as frightening as a tea cosy. Which is precisely Brecht's point.

posted by fraula at 3:55 PM on October 31, 2016

Because since she won't point to a specific email being doctored (which she has huge incentive to do as this is damaging her career), we know that she's lying.

No, we don't. That's not how evidence works.
posted by rocket88 at 3:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [30 favorites]

I don't know if this tweet Is legit, but it's making me laugh pretty hard.

Registrant Email: emcmullin@cendyn.com
Admin Name: Emily McMullin

Cute, but a harmless coincidence.
posted by porpoise at 3:57 PM on October 31, 2016

Canvassed again today, which was generally good. One person declined to open their door, just waved their hands and shook their head, but that's still better than opening the door and yelling at me, which- knock on wood- hasn't happened yet. A guy out walking his dog and not on my list asked me what I was doing and said "good for you" when I told him I was canvassing for Hillary. He asked if I had seen the Newsweek article msalt posted way up thread about Trump destroying documents. He went on to tell me that he's Catholic and has concerns about Hillary's position on abortion, but will be voting for her. I got back to the office and the canvass captain had on a "highest, hardest glass ceiling" costume--reflective shards attached to her t-shirt. It was awesome. No one I canvassed offered me Halloween candy, but there were homemade cupcakes someone had brought in and cupcakes are better than candy. I also found out that my votes-per-canvasser total is up to 112. Pretty proud of that, it feels like a good piece of work and I'm feeling really grateful to have the energy and the support from my husband and kids to be able to volunteer.
posted by danielleh at 3:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [51 favorites]

~~Emily~~ McMullin

for her involvement in the Russian server scandal she will be branded with the name of MEREDITH
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

Trump's server is almost certainly not registered to this Emily McMullin.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:00 PM on October 31, 2016

ugly: "PUTIN RUSSIA" has never actually been accused by any US official beyond Hillary Clinton at the 3rd debate

Whut.

Joint Statement from the Department Of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security

The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations.

Obama Considers ‘Proportional’ Response to Russian Hacking in U.S. Election

On Friday, the Obama administration publicly acknowledged for the first time that it believed that the Russian government was responsible for stealing and disclosing emails from the Democratic National Committee and a range of other institutions and prominent individuals, most recently Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, John D. Podesta.

posted by syzygy at 4:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [48 favorites]

I don't know if this tweet Is legit, but it's making me laugh pretty hard.
Registrant Email: emcmullin@cendyn.com
Admin Name: Emily McMullin
Cute, but a harmless coincidence.

SEZ WHO
posted by sallybrown at 4:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Somewhere in an alternate universe where Dante's hell exists, there is a section in the lake of boiling pitch for AGs who use their office as a partisan weapon.

I believe that's AsG.
posted by newpotato at 4:01 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

Any chance this is just a box with malware perpetually caught in a loop DDOSing some Russian bank because nodody there knows how to get rid off it? Maybe it's the machine they keep their spreadsheet of voters on or something so they don't want to just turn it off.
posted by Artw at 4:01 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

"PUTIN RUSSIA" has never actually been accused by any US official beyond Hillary Clinton at the 3rd debate

Not true.

Oct. 7 2016 Joint Statement from the Department Of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security

"The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. Such activity is not new to Moscow—the Russians have used similar tactics and techniques across Europe and Eurasia, for example, to influence public opinion there. We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities."

posted by soundguy99 at 4:02 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I also have some concerns about a global cabal of DNS experts shifting through logs.

I used to participate in a large mailing list for authoritative internet time servers (NTP) where we shared logs and queries indiscriminately in order to improve the service as well as our own place in the strata. So I am not surprised exactly, but I understand the concern. The 90s were so innocent. Just a bunch of techies trying to make the internet better.
posted by xyzzy at 4:04 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

>Registrant Email: emcmullin@cendyn.com
Admin Name: Emily McMullin

FINALLY the proof we have all been looking for . . . that Egg McMuffin has gone undercover as a cross-dressing secret agent.
posted by flug at 4:04 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

A small portion of the logs showed communication with a server belonging to Michigan-based Spectrum Health. (The company said in a statement: “Spectrum Health does not have a relationship with Alfa Bank or any of the Trump organizations. We have concluded a rigorous investigation with both our internal IT security specialists and expert cyber security firms. Our experts have conducted a detailed analysis of the alleged internet traffic and did not find any evidence that it included any actual communications (no emails, chat, text, etc.) between Spectrum Health and Alfa Bank or any of the Trump organizations.

OK, that's super-weird. Spectrum Health is the soulless conglomerate that owns nearly every hospital, clinic, and medical practice in central and west Michigan. Does anyone know if Trump has any Grand Rapids ties or business interests? Tivalasvegas? quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon?
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:05 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Unlikely. Wouldn't explain why the Trump end of the conversation dropped off the air shortly after Alfa was contacted by the journalist, only to come back up with a different name. Or if that was because the Alfa sysops took a look at the logs, found the mutant zombie Trump box blatting away and contacted Trump to get it shut down, then the story could be shut down by 'misconfigured marketing server, now fixed'. Plus - traffic patterns that match office hours?
posted by Devonian at 4:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Getting an edge on a debate strikes me as weaksauce compared to what Trump has bragged about and what Trump is on court records doing.

I'll take "cheats on a debate" over "fuckwad involved in illegal support of mass murder."
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 4:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

It's partisan nature in terms of drip leaking breaking news to influence the election to maximum impact has caused it's credibility to drop to rock bottom levels.

and another person wrote

I think the fact that Assange has been trying to space out/time releases of documents he's had for months for maximum election impact speaks volumes about how he feels about tranparency - its a tool he wants to use towards a specific (Trumpian) political end.

I feel it's important to note that Wikileaks has always promised to strategically slow-drip leaks for maximum impact. This is something they talked about at the very beginning, before the election, before Assange was holed up in the embassy, before the OpenLeaks schism (I think). That was their model from the beginning.
posted by ryanrs at 4:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Wonder if Trump may have had some $$$ in Alfa Bank and had a special secure client set up to do transfers and such? We kinda know he's done some business over there and even has ties to people associated with Alfa...
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 4:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Really can't even judge what exactly is supposed to be going on from the Slate story, due to journalism. Like the bit about needing an off-Internet line of communication to get a new name across? Nonsensical. If I do 'dig gmail.com mx' which is the equivalent of what a mail server would do to send mail to Gmail (if I remember right mx is Mail Exchange), I get gmail-smtp-in.l.google.com as the server to contact. If Google decided to change it to gmailisthebest.asdjasddeuihwdeiu.net, they wouldn't have to SMS that change to every mail server operator in the world, because that's the whole point of DNS...
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 4:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Somewhere in an alternate universe where Dante's hell exists, there is a section in the lake of boiling pitch for AGs who use their office as a partisan weapon.

Probably included under barratry in Inferno
posted by thelonius at 4:10 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

We just moved to Maine's 2nd district and cast two votes for Hillary today (um, that's one vote each, to be precise)...later this week we're canvassing again. It definitely feels better being active.
posted by seacats at 4:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

It seems Russia has a very wide-reaching strategy of influencing other nations' politics. I've just come home from a foreign policy seminar, where this was the big theme across the board ("forget about Islamic radicalism, this is far worse"), and then I open the Guardian website to see how things are going: 'Increasingly aggressive' Russia a growing threat to UK, says MI5 head. Several right wing politicians across Europe have been shown to receive some sort of support from Russia, and Russian media are building up western right-wing propaganda
posted by mumimor at 4:12 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

Even weirder, Google found a Wordpress blog with DNS information titled "Trump’s Russian Bank Account" dated October 5th (Slate's story was today). There's also this site that it references, maybe belonging to "Tea Leaves".
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 4:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

That wordpress blog is linked in Slate's article. A number of people have been working on this for months.
posted by zachlipton at 4:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

White Nationalist Sponsors Utah Robocalls Telling Voters Evan McMullin Is ‘Closet Homosexual’

Hello, My name is William Johnson. I am a farmer and a white nationalist. I make this call against Evan McMullin and in support of Donald Trump. Evan McMullin is an open borders, amnesty supporter. Evan has two mommies. His mother is a lesbian, married to another woman. Evan is okay with that. Indeed, Evan supports the Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage. Evan is over 40 years old and is not married and doesn’t even have a girlfriend. I believe Evan is a closet homosexual. Don’t vote for Evan McMullin. Vote for Donald Trump. He will respect all women and be a president we can all be proud of. I paid for this ad through the American National super-PAC.

Jesus tap dancing Christ. This is happening in 2016.
posted by Talez at 4:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [77 favorites]

So, if this is real, what would be the likely behavioural model behind it? Bank transfers? Email from a mole in Trump's campaign or IT people? It'd be interesting to see if the DNS volume spikes correlate with the National Security Briefings, but then, most of the traffic does not seem particularly correlated with anything obvious (contra the article).
posted by Rumple at 4:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

The second link in RobotVoodooPower's post has some good things in it -

The other frequent connection to Trump's hidden server with the same distinctive human pattern is Spectrum Health, a Michigan hospital with close ties to the DeVos family (http://www.spectrumhealth.org/locations/helen-devos-childrens-hospital). The Devos family founded Amway / Alticor which operates in Russia including transactions with Alfa Bank such as buying insurance for 800 Alticor employees from Alfa Bank's insurance subsidiary. The Devos family has given millions of dollars in the past few months to conservative super PACs (www.fec.gov). One member of the Devos family was a founder of Blackwater.
posted by Devonian at 4:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

Talez, I feel sick to my stomach after reading that.

I've been dawdling on completing my absentee ballot - no real reason, just somewhat intimidated to review the long list of CA propositions. Tonight is the fucking night. WE VOTE!
posted by samthemander at 4:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Maybe I misunderstood the article, but I was under the impression that the mx record for trump-email.com was not updated after the domain name switch.

According to the blog:

When a reporter called Alfa Bank for comment on September 21, the zone for mail1.trump-email.com was removed from ns1 and ns3.cdcservices.com causing RCODE=2 (Server Failure), and ns2 returned empty referrals. Since mail1 was unresolvable, Trump renamed the host to trump1.contact-client.com on October 27. The first host iterating for this domain was Alfa Bank on 2016-09-27 at 19:48 hours:

"ts": "1475005735",
"src_ip": "217.12.97.15",
"qname": "trump1.contact-client.com",
"node_id": "ams-ix23",
"qdcount": 1,
"qtype": 1,
"rd": 0

But the hostname trump1.contact-client.com appeared in the first passive DNS database three days later, and still has not appeared in some passive collections.

posted by xyzzy at 4:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Sen. Richard Burr privately mused over the weekend that gun owners may want to put a "bullseye" on Hillary Clinton,

So many possible titles for #NextPost
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

@HillaryClinton is wasting no time getting a 4 point explainer out on Trump's server.
posted by klarck at 4:36 PM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

Contact-client.com was registered in 2004, contact is Charles Deyo, who is CEO of Cendyn who Trump uses for interactive marketing:

Cendyn’s CRM Suite was deployed by The Trump Hotel Collection. This suite includes eInsight, eConcierge and eSurvey. As a result, The Trump Hotel Collection is able to provide their guests with the highest level of customer service by managing the entire view of each guest from a single platform.

Maybe, though, a server can do more than one thing.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 4:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Kurt Eichenwald doing a good job of eviscerating Deadbeat Donald on Hardball just now wrt Trump's dodgy business practices.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:39 PM on October 31, 2016

Everyone keeps saying this election shows Veep was a documentary, but I'm starting to feel that way about Mr. Robot.

--@chrislhayes
posted by zachlipton at 4:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Here is some of the stuff that pops up on my facebook, from someone who wants to believe, an antivaxxer, loves Dr. Mercola's stuff, and politically wants Jill Stein. People who commented made statements like I only read X's stuff now, because it all comes true!
posted by Oyéah at 4:42 PM on October 31, 2016

If I do 'dig gmail.com mx' which is the equivalent of what a mail server would do to send mail to Gmail (if I remember right mx is Mail Exchange), I get gmail-smtp-in.l.google.com as the server to contact. If Google decided to change it to gmailisthebest.asdjasddeuihwdeiu.net, they wouldn't have to SMS that change to every mail server operator in the world, because that's the whole point of DNS.

I think the idea is that you actually don't want to broadcast to the world what the new secret mailserver is. If Google did change the MX record, then suddenly every email server ever trying to send anything to anyone @gmail.com would be directed to gmailisthebest.asdjasddeuihwdeiu.net. If Google wanted to set a secret mail server for, you know, secret search-engine gossip with its best buddy Bing, then it'd still have to somehow communicate that server name to Bing out-of-band.
posted by water under the bridge at 4:44 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

The other frequent connection to Trump's hidden server with the same distinctive human pattern is Spectrum Health, a Michigan hospital with close ties to the DeVos family (http://www.spectrumhealth.org/locations/helen-devos-childrens-hospital). The Devos family founded Amway / Alticor which operates in Russia including transactions with Alfa Bank such as buying insurance for 800 Alticor employees from Alfa Bank's insurance subsidiary. The Devos family has given millions of dollars in the past few months to conservative super PACs (www.fec.gov). One member of the Devos family was a founder of Blackwater.

Oh wow. Oh fucking WOW, the minute the word DeVos (Dutch for "evil ratbastard") came up, the penny dropped and it all started making terrible sense. Can't wait until quonsar gets a load of this one.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:49 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Meanwhile Jill Stein has identified John Oliver as the real villain.
posted by humanfont at 4:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

Interestingly enough, the "should Utah democrats strategically vote for McMullin?" question came up on the latest 538 podcast, and they pretty much came to the conclusion that it'd be better for them to vote for Clinton. (Reasoning: McMullin winning Utah does not actually help Clinton, the best it could possibly do would be to throw the election to the House, where Clinton would lose.)
posted by kyrademon at 4:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh wow. Oh fucking WOW, the minute the word DeVos (Dutch for "evil ratbastard") came up, the penny dropped and it all started making terrible sense. Can't wait until quonsar gets a load of this one.

Could you describe the penny for those like me who are a bit slow in putting it together? I read this and thought okay I know this is important and not good but I don't know exactly why.
posted by Jalliah at 4:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Does anyone know if Trump has any Grand Rapids ties or business interests? Tivalasvegas? quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon?

well there was that one time he tried to procure a couple of russian sex slaves for me, but those darn kids with the blue website messed that all up. i lost big league on that transaction.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 4:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

So if this Trump-server-Russia thing turns out to actually be something real, I hope that you lovely people will break it down in small, easy words for me. I'm a scientist by training but not a tech person, and my brain is skittering off this stuff like it's polished ice.
posted by Salieri at 4:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

Really can't even judge what exactly is supposed to be going on from the Slate story, due to journalism.

Trump's servers and Alfa's servers keep asking for each others' address (A/AAAA), mail server (MX), and/or name (PTR), as a side effect of some other conversation between then (connection establishment, looking up addresses logs). The fact that the lookup volume seems to track real-world events somewhat is a first argument that the underlying activity is human-to-human communication. Paul Vixie refers to interpacket timing too; usually automated traffic has peaks in its frequency spectrum at common retry intervals, and I'm assuming those aren't there in this metadata if he's mentioning it.

DNS is unencrypted, and radiates a whole lot of information about the traffic causing the lookups to anyone positioned to see it. There are observatories set up to watch DNS traffic, mainly for signs of spam and malware, and I presume the anonymous researchers have access to some of that data (here's a relevant paper).

That there was Internet traffic between these servers is clear; that the server's name was deleted and replaced by a name under a different domain around the time the Times started sniffing around is also clear. The thing that would have to be communicated out-of-band is that the server's name changed (although that could also have happened with a first email sent from the new domain), and it seems from the evidence presented that that happened too. The spokesdroids' denial of contact may well be in good faith... they may not know who within each of their respective organizations are using those machines to talk to each other, or why.
posted by Vetinari at 4:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

I instantly wondered about Amway and the DeVos family as soon as Spectrum Health was mentioned.

Could you describe the penny for those like me who are a bit slow in putting it together? I read this and thought okay I know this is important and not good but I don't know exactly why.

The DeVos family is 1. super loaded and 2. super conservative. There are a lot of comparisons made between the DeVos family and the Koch family. Here's a 2011 Forbes.com article that includes a map of their dealings.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 4:57 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Uh huh, yup, Dick DeVos is the current chairman of the board of Spectrum Health. He was the Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2006 and remains a sizable asshat.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

At this stage I fully expect trumps phone banking tomorrow to be calling up, hissing "SEVEN DAYS" followed by crinkling static

Trump vs Sadako? Fingering out of TV screens, cursing your shower thoughts, crippling sense that nothing will ever be alright again? Should've built a bigger well...
posted by litleozy at 4:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

HuffPo The Incredibly Sexist Book Once Mysteriously Billed As Trump’s ‘Debut Novel’

When Jeffrey Robinson’s Trump Tower debuted in July 2012, it failed to receive much attention, despite boasting the tagline, “The sexiest novel of the decade,” and an endorsement from Donald Trump himself.

“Jeffrey Robinson’s novel Trump Tower bares it all,” Trump writes in the only review blurb on the the back cover. “Here is the drama of the Ultra Rich, the Ultra Powerful, and the Ultra Beautiful who call the most glamorous address in the country their home. I can’t wait to see it on television!”

One of the only critical reviews came from The New York Post, which claimed, “The red room of pain in Fifty Shades of Grey would fit right into Trump Tower.” The review only discussed events that happen within the first few pages of the novel, such as a tenant of New York City’s Trump Tower being held against her will in an act that’s depicted as sexy BDSM but is not consensual. This clear moment of sexual assault is presented nonchalantly in the book.[...]

As of this month, Trump Tower is advertised in a display case right next to the main floor’s Trump Bar and was one of the only books still sold at the tower’s store (now largely a holding place for “Make America Great Again” campaign materials).

f it seems odd that Trump would have such an affinity for Trump Tower, it makes more sense once you know that the publisher originally marketed the book as “the debut novel from ‘New York Times’-bestselling author, international business mogul, television superstar, and New York City icon, Donald J. Trump.”

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Could you describe the penny for those like me who are a bit slow in putting it together?

the area's politics (and hospitals) are controlled by the DeVos family, scions of the Amway Giant Pyramid Scheme and notorious Republican Rich Pricks.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 4:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

Thank you all for going over this slate revelation with combs both fine and sharp toothed. really appreciated by us public library types.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

> Meanwhile Jill Stein has identified John Oliver as the real villain.

lol at actually reinforcing John Oliver's criticism that Jill Stein has no idea how she would pull off quantitative easing with "Quantitative easing is technically possible, but would be very difficult politically." That's how you answer an essay question when you get less points for leaving it blank than you do getting it wrong.

Also from the letter: His hands are far from clean - he's a millionaire

And so is Jill Stein.
posted by MysticMCJ at 5:02 PM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

The other frequent connection to Trump's hidden server with the same distinctive human pattern is Spectrum Health, a Michigan hospital

As someone on NPR just a couple hours ago wondered out loud, "What's he doing [campaigning] in Michigan?"
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

"What's he doing [campaigning] in Michigan?"

pickin' up some spare change.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 5:05 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

You guys, I think "Trump Tower" might be a nickname for something.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:05 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Yeah, just take the T's out of it. Nah.
posted by Oyéah at 5:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Rum Power?
posted by inpHilltr8r at 5:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm having this marvelous little fanfic daydream in which Trump gets outed as colluding with a Russian bank to do [unspeakable nefarious election things] and takes the entire DeVos clan down into ignominy with him.

I'll be in my bunk.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

Rump Plower?
posted by Senor Cardgage at 5:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump (Mother Jones)

On Monday, NBC News reported that the FBI has mounted a preliminary inquiry into the foreign business ties of Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign chief. But Reid's recent note hinted at more than the Page or Manafort affairs. And a former senior intelligence officer for a Western country who specialized in Russian counterintelligence tells Mother Jones that in recent months he provided the bureau with memos, based on his recent interactions with Russian sources, contending the Russian government has for years tried to co-opt and assist Trump—and that the FBI requested more information from him. . . .

An FBI spokeswoman says, "Normally, we don't talk about whether we are investigating anything." But a senior US government official not involved in this case but familiar with the former spy tells Mother Jones that he has been a credible source with a proven record of providing reliable, sensitive, and important information to the US government.

In June, the former Western intelligence officer—who spent almost two decades on Russian intelligence matters and who now works with a US firm that gathers information on Russia for corporate clients—was assigned the task of researching Trump's dealings in Russia and elsewhere, according to the former spy and his associates in this American firm. This was for an opposition research project originally financed by a Republican client critical of the celebrity mogul. (Before the former spy was retained, the project's financing switched to a client allied with Democrats.) "It started off as a fairly general inquiry," says the former spook, who asks not to be identified. But when he dug into Trump, he notes, he came across troubling information indicating connections between Trump and the Russian government. According to his sources, he says, "there was an established exchange of information between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin of mutual benefit." . . .

Mother Jones has reviewed that report and other memos this former spy wrote. The first memo, based on the former intelligence officer's conversations with Russian sources, noted, "Russian regime has been cultivating, supporting and assisting TRUMP for at least 5 years. Aim, endorsed by PUTIN, has been to encourage splits and divisions in western alliance." It maintained that Trump "and his inner circle have accepted a regular flow of intelligence from the Kremlin, including on his Democratic and other political rivals." It claimed that Russian intelligence had "compromised" Trump during his visits to Moscow and could "blackmail him." It also reported that Russian intelligence had compiled a dossier on Hillary Clinton based on "bugged conversations she had on various visits to Russia and intercepted phone calls."

The former intelligence officer says the response from the FBI was "shock and horror." The FBI, after receiving the first memo, did not immediately request additional material, according to the former intelligence officer and his American associates. Yet in August, they say, the FBI asked him for all information in his possession and for him to explain how the material had been gathered and to identify his sources. The former spy forwarded to the bureau several memos—some of which referred to members of Trump's inner circle. After that point, he continued to share information with the FBI. "It's quite clear there was or is a pretty substantial inquiry going on," he says."

I'm like, about to purr with satisfaction and yet also completely and terrifically horrified.
posted by sallybrown at 5:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [119 favorites]

(Im so ashamed)
posted by Senor Cardgage at 5:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Normally I'd think something shitty but banal like "unmaintained server owned for botnet", which is exactly what the people looking at the data ruled out from the request patterns.

There are two clear out-of-band interactions: the zonefile changes at Cendyn's DNS for trump-email.com after the NYT contacted Alfa Bank (but not TrumpOrg) and the resumption of traffic from Alfa to the new domain.

I assume Foer asked Cendyn for comment, though it's not mentioned in the story. I wouldn't expect them to say anything anyway.
posted by holgate at 5:12 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I saw that we've covered it before, but I happened to be reading about the Reform Party* just now and came across a moment sixteen years ago when Trump identified David Duke as a Klansman and specifically said "This is not company I wish to keep." Which is yet another bit of proof of his disingenuousness.

* (Remember Ezola B. Foster, the African-American woman Pat Buchanan chose as his running mate? Remember the exclusion of Dick Lamm?)
posted by brainwane at 5:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I instantly wondered about Amway and the DeVos family as soon as Spectrum Health was mentioned.

I should have, duh -- but I'm far enough away from Grand Rapids that I forget about the DeVos-Spectrum thing and just think of Spectrum as "that place where I go to the doctor."
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:13 PM on October 31, 2016

Swing state voter report: Reporting back from the Cincinnati Clinton rally. Gabby Giffords and her husband gave the introduction speech for Clinton, and as Gabby slowly made her way to the lectern in front of the beautiful Roebling Bridge I started to cry. When Clinton finally came out it was mildly stunning, like "Oh, hey, she's actually real!" kinda way.

I was so impressed by how tightly everything was run - IT ACTUALLY STARTED ON TIME. HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES OF EVENTS NEVER EVER START ON TIME. I was amazed!!! I was there with a girlfriend and she said, "If Clinton runs the country as tightly as that event was run she's going to be great."

Interesting mix of protesters there - the same anti-abortion chuckleheads who counter-protested a group of us protesting at the Trump rally, but also folks protesting against the Dakota Access Pipeline. I exchanged friendly words with one of the DAPL guys because I'm really disappointed in how Dem leadership is treating this issue right now.

Supposedly Bernie is coming here later this week. I do poll worker training tomorrow.

Being an engaged Ohio voter is stressful. Someone send me on a trip to Hawaii after this, please.
posted by mostly vowels at 5:14 PM on October 31, 2016 [66 favorites]

I am sitting here in total shock.

The party of Ronnie Reagan, the party that brags about having ended the Cold War, of standing for economic realism and business sense, nominated for President a famously bankrupt businessman-cum-reality TV star who's a cultural icon of tackiness best known for his fake head of hair, and he turned out to be a puppet of Vladimir Putin.

And he almost won.
posted by sallybrown at 5:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [49 favorites]

This Russia thing is making me feel like a crazy person. It feels like my immediate mental reaction is to turn it into some political spy thriller shit that surely, surely! should change the course of the election narrative but lol. I assume the media response will be "....k. Let's keep talking about Comey and emails!" I know we're all effectively running around like chickens with our heads cut off in terms of meaningful information we have on this, but, like....if a Russian plant is running for president, some agency should....take some sort of action, right? That's not a thing to sort out after the election, is it?
posted by yasaman at 5:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

The GOP’s Age of Authoritarianism Has Only Just Begun

posted by T.D. Strange at 5:24 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

One week to go. We'll know if the Russians are serious about getting Trump in power if they assassinate Pence.
posted by ryanrs at 5:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

YOU GUYS. I saw an Egg McMuffin yard sign today! I laughed so hard that I had to pull over and calm down.

Also, my 8yo son told me that someone in his class told him that Hillary is a liar... his response was to tell her to look at the guy on twitter who tracks all of Trump's lies (Daniel Dale) and to "get back to" him. Again with the laughing till I had to pull over.

In a month where I've had more panic attacks than in the last six months combined, this was a good day.
posted by altopower at 5:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [60 favorites]

And he almost won.

Did I fall through some time-space continuum where it's actually November 9 already? Is it actually over already?

...or am I being really dense and mis-reading something?
posted by mostly vowels at 5:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

Or is this going to just get glossed over because Hillary EMAILS!!!

Look, would you rather vote for somebody who you know for certain is in the pocket of a foreign power or somebody who may or may not be responsible with their digital communication? I know I'd prefer certainty to doubt. Trump 2016 - Certainly Terrible, Not Maybe Terrible. /hamburger
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I still don't know whether the Affa-Trump email link is plausibly the main channel for any Kremlin-Trump naughtiness. (Although I'm quite prepared to believe that severally, both are real). It's just too flaky and noisy; you can certainly argue that if you have to rely on Trump's organisation for opsec, you're not going to be very happy, but I have a higher opinion of the Russians.

They might be related - if there's finance involved, then it might go through that channel - but I'm cooler on this being the Putinphone.
posted by Devonian at 5:29 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Trump spy / Russia allegations remind me of the Business Plot. Notable as a previous attempt by fascist wealthy elites to subvert our Democracy.
posted by humanfont at 5:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Comey here, or is it Chaffetz?
posted by Oyéah at 5:31 PM on October 31, 2016

Also, fuckin' 2016, man. It's like one long year of successive instances of "PLOT TWIST!!"
posted by yasaman at 5:32 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Comey
posted by chris24 at 5:32 PM on October 31, 2016

Also, fuckin' 2016, man. It's like one long year of successive instances of "PLOT TWIST!!"

If 2016 was a show, I would have stopped even hate-watching long before now.
posted by bibliowench at 5:35 PM on October 31, 2016 [60 favorites]

Look, would you rather vote for somebody who you know for certain is in the pocket of a foreign power or somebody who may or may not be responsible with their digital communication? I know I'd prefer certainty to doubt. Trump 2016 - Certainly Terrible, Not Maybe Terrible. /hamburger

Here's the even scarier and more stupid part of this.

I do think that Trump really and truly does not think he is in Putin's pocket. So when he says he's not a puppet he isn't lying because he's too stupid to realize when he's being manipulated especially by people who are masters at it. He more than likely has convinced himself that he is the one with the power and if anything is using them.

At least this finally explains all of his Putin love. He's been (likely unknowingly) manipulated into thinking his understanding of Russia is the 'truth'.
posted by Jalliah at 5:35 PM on October 31, 2016 [43 favorites]

It seems like a really, really big deal and uh...

Considering the Comey letter caused a massive media freakout almost immediately (and well before there was any reasonable understanding of what was happening), and this Slate article has generated next to no coverage outside of Slate...

I don't disagree that this is (possibly) a big deal, but I'm not seeing it getting traction.

This month has had so much Are You F'ing Kidding Me. I just can't even
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Does any of this stuff mean that Trump could really and truly go down in a big way? (not just election wise) It seems like a really, really big deal and uh...

Yeah..

Or is this going to just get glossed over because Hillary EMAILS!!! argle bargle...

Well yeah, it could mean absolutely nothing or be some dumb innocuous coincidence, and it probably will come to nothing. But it's mighty odd. I mean, it's not necessarily sinister that any pair of the three things might be in two-way communication with each other:

Trump -- Alfa Bank
Spectrum/DeVos/Amway -- Alfa Bank
Trump -- Spectrum/DeVos/Amway

But a server that someone at Trump Inc. uses only for communication with both Alfa and Spectrum/DeVos and no other organizations makes the three a triangle, and unless Trump has some Russian business interest connected to Amway, I can't think offhand of a non-election topic that those three entities would have any reason to be in touch about as a group. But then, I'm a dumb layperson. It's just . . . odd.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Wikileaks are still partisan and unethical, and represent a handful of foreign actors openly attempting to affect the US election.

For the record: I am a foreigner (resident alien), partisan and sometimes not completely ethical and I am openly attempting to affect the US election.

PLEASE DON'T BE CRAZY AMERICA!
posted by srboisvert at 5:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

andrewcooke: this appears to be "Tea Leaves" Reddit account.
posted by Rumple at 5:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

and this Slate article has generated next to no coverage outside of Slate...

The Slate story says reporters at the Times are also working on this subject. Once the Times comes out with theirs - and I'm sure they're rushing to get theirs done given Slate beating them to the punch - others news outlets will have to cover it more. Paper of Record and all.
posted by chris24 at 5:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I still don't know whether the Alfa-Trump email link is plausibly the main channel for any Kremlin-Trump naughtiness.

The story doesn't claim that it's the main channel, just that it's a channel. There may be many.
posted by msalt at 5:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

msalt I was pretty curious about that particular user.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

I think the oppo just droppoed.
posted by diogenes at 5:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

It's Halloween night. So far every person I have shared this with, from left-wing friends to conservative Dad, has been roughly like "29485723904572039qut!!!!! wefuqw945u1024!!!" in response.

Now that the Mother Jones story is out, I predict these stories will merge and blow up into a giant garbage fire of Trumpness by the end of the week.
posted by sallybrown at 5:46 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

So if I had come on here around 4 years ago and said hey I have a great plot for a political thriller, Russia compromises Donald Trump, black mails him and the supports him during his run as the GOP candidate for President.....

What do you think? Sounds plausible enough right? I should totally write it right?
posted by Jalliah at 5:46 PM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

Listening to the Kentucky US Senate debate between Rand Paul and Lexington mayor Jim Gray on the radio right now.

Paul is such a slick, lying bastard. I used to say that Paul was awful, but McConnell was way worse and if he were the one running for reelection, he'd be stupid vulnerable. Now I just don't care. Fuck both those guys. Why can't Kentucky have nice things?

At least Gray said out loud that he was going to vote for Clinton (actual words "the nominee of my party"). Alison Lundergan Grimes two years ago (she ran against McConnell) couldn't quite get those words out.
posted by chaoticgood at 5:46 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I suppose the most banal explanation might be this:

- TrumpOrg hires a marketing org to send out promo emails to its messy mailing lists (and perhaps uses them for campaign email, merging the corporate lists?)
- One of their servers is almost but not quite decommissioned (maybe part of a broader domain migration from trump-email.com to client-contact.com?) but keeps sending out shitty spam to a couple of domains.
- Alfa Bank gets a call from the NYT, emails someone at TrumpOrg or the tech contact for the domain to say "wtf?", and some tech at Cendyn gets a boot up the rear and pulls the record from the zonefile
- Server gets renamed to trump1.contact-client.com, spammy emails resume.

We don't know the raw DNS data from trump1.contact-client.com after the switch, specifically whether it was the same few IPs or a bucketload. So I'm not pinning a huge amount on this, given "cock-up before conspiracy". Anyone know what the sender IP ranges for Trump campaign spam looked like in September?

What Lichtblau and Myers are working on for the NYT is likelier to be broader and more interesting, given that Myers is an ex-Moscow correspondent who's spent a lot of time on the Putin beat.
posted by holgate at 5:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

So it's possible the server isn't being used for spy info passing, just something innocuous and boring like money laundering?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

No -- but I've seen claims elsewhere to that effect. Probably due to both stories appearing at the same time.

I'm still mildly giddy that anything to do with mx records is turning into a global story. A life spent hanging around the engine rooms of the Internet doesn't really prepare you for sudden and surreal RL importance of hypergeekery.
posted by Devonian at 5:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [40 favorites]

Once the Times comes out with theirs - and I'm sure they're rushing to get theirs done given Slate beating them to the punch - others news outlets will have to cover it more. Paper of Record and all.

So... who is going to have to swipe it from them for them to print it?
posted by Artw at 5:49 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

This is crazy and I can't keep up!
posted by diogenes at 5:49 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

NYTimes has new leaked Trump tax documents. They'll get to Russia when they can.
posted by maudlin at 5:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [44 favorites]

That Mother Jones article is mindblowing!
posted by diogenes at 5:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I don't think anyone cares about Trump's tax returns anymore. NYTimes is wasting their time.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

You guys. I wept. I'm not afraid to admit it. I made new millennial friends who were just as excited as I was.

Here's a panoramic view.
posted by cooker girl at 5:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [85 favorites]

So if this Trump-server-Russia thing turns out to actually be something real, I hope that you lovely people will break it down in small, easy words for me

I'm still digesting the information, but I'll give it a shot.

Fundamentally, the internet works by IP addresses. They are a string of four numbers, like so: 54.186.13.33, and every computer on the Internet is assigned one. To communicate with another computer on the internet, what your computer does is it prepares the message it wants to send, slaps the destination IP address onto there (as well as "return address"). With the IP address on there, the servers of the Internet will relay the message from server to server, until it reaches the computer that has that address. Success!

But then the question is, how do you figure out what IP address to send something to? Say that my computer wants to talk to www.metafilter.com (this is called that computer's "hostname"), but doesn't know the IP address. This is where the DNS system comes in. The DNS servers are a bunch of computers which you can ask for the IP address associated with a particular hostname. So my computer will turn to the nearest DNS server, say "hey, what's the IP address for www.metafilter.com again?". That DNS server will either know, in which case it will reply directly, or if not, it will hit up one of it's DNS server buddies, and say "hey, do you what the IP address for www.metafilter.com is?". And they might go ask their buddies, and so on, but eventually, somebody will know, the chain of DNS servers will relay the answer back to my computer.

This is where explanations of the DNS system usually end. But astute readers will note that this doesn't really solve the problem, because you'd still need to know the hostname of the computer you want to contact. But that's more of a marketing problem; you have your shiny new website, and somehow need to tell the world about it.

Except if you don't want the world to know about your new server. And this is where we get back to Donald Trump. Apparently the Trump organization set up a computer, connected it to the internet, with the hostname of mail1.trump-email.com. The name (and possibly other evidence, not sure how to interpret that particular passage in the Slate article) seems to suggest that it's an e-mail server, but it's hard to tell, because it doesn't seem to respond to messages from just any IP address. (It's pretty common to filter traffic by the sending IP address if you know exactly which IP addresses you want to communicate with.)

Nobody seemed to know about the hostname "mail1.trump-email.com". With only a few exceptions, Alfa Bank, and Spectrum Health in Michigan. And how do we know this? Well, this goes back to how DNS works again. Remember how the DNS servers had to relay all the queries that they didn't know about? Well, for this to work, there has to be a relatively tight-knit network of DNS servers that are all pretty buddy-buddy with each other. And apparently (I didn't know this before) there are people who have access to the logs of the queries that go through the system. So when my computer asked "what's the IP address for www.metafilter.com?", that ended up in their log somewhere.

If somebody were to send mail to mail1.trump-email.com, they'd have to first figure out the IP address. And to do that, they'd have to ask the DNS system "hey, what's the IP address of mail1.trump-email.com?". And through the logs, we see that such queries only originated from a handful of IP addresses, most of them from IP addresses associated with Alfa Bank servers. (And then there's the mysterious Spectrum Health connection.) This means that only these computers ever used the name "mail1.trump-email.com" to communicate with the Trump server behind the name, and therefore also suggests that they are the only people to know of the name.

The only other important technical point is the human-seeing timing of the DNS queries. One thing that you have to rule out is that it's just some kind of malware sitting on the Trump server, being sent commands from an Alfa Bank server (which may itself be compromised with malware). But such things would likely be more regular. Instead, the timing patterns seem more organic, you know, kind of like each query corresponded to someone trying to send a piece of e-mail.

The next piece of evidence, that the Trump server went offline soon after the journalists contacted Alfa Bank to ask about this, doesn't require any fancy technical knowledge to understand.

After that, it appears that the Trump organization set up another name for the server, called "trump1.contact-client.com". But then you have the same problem, of getting the new name out to the world.

This requires another digression on how the DNS system works. What does it even mean to give a server a new hostname? Well, it just means telling the right DNS server that "oh, by the way, if somebody asks for trump1.contact-client.com, it's at this IP address now." Eventually, this knowledge would make it out to this DNS server's buddies, and their buddies, and so on, but that process takes time.

What happened here seems to be that long before the name started appearing in the big, main DNS servers of the Internet, the first request came, the familiar DNS query of "hey, what's the IP address for trump1.contact-client.com?" And it came from an Alfa Bank server. This strongly suggests that somebody at the Trump organization actively communicated the new hostname to somebody at Alfa Bank.
posted by water under the bridge at 5:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [146 favorites]

Lol, of course he's a Manchurian Candidate. That's how fucking stupid Republicans* are, not only nominating a racist fascist, but one that's a foreign agent. These dumbshit "American patriots" can't even pick an all-American dictator. Forget Trump's Razor, it's GOP's Razor.

* Yes, yes, not all Republicans
posted by chris24 at 5:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

So tech people is the Daily Kos explanation actually accurate or wildly off base?

The technical details of this story are complex, but the short version is this: The researchers found a machine on Trump's business network sending and receiving data that would suggest emails being exchanged, and the machine was set up to link only to a very small set of other machines in the world, the Alfa Bank link being the most important.

After New York Times reporters contacted Alfa Bank to inquire, the link was suddenly severed from Trump's side. But then:

Four days later, on Sept. 27, the Trump Organization created a new host name, trump1.contact-client.com, which enabled communication to the very same server via a different route. When a new host name is created, the first communication with it is never random. To reach the server after the resetting of the host name, the sender of the first inbound mail has to first learn of the name somehow. It’s simply impossible to randomly reach a renamed server.
posted by emjaybee at 5:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

*making a great big bowl of p-oppo-corn*
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [32 favorites]

I still don't know whether the Affa-Trump email link is plausibly the main channel for any Kremlin-Trump naughtiness.

Yeah, I'm trying to wrap my head around it. I'm not sure if mail1.trump-email.com was set up in the MX records for the domain (the information on the WordPress site doesn't include this, and it's gone now), but if it wasn't it would be pretty cumbersome to use as a receiving mail server. And if it was, you'd expect some DNS lookups from spammers over the course of a few months, even if no-one was supposed to know the address and traffic was blocked for all but a handful of IPs.

And we don't know that the server was actually configured to allow incoming traffic from Alfa or Spectrum. All the researchers in the Slate article know is that it didn't accept incoming pings (and presumably port scans) when they tried to hit it. It could have continued to be for outgoing mail only, which seems to be what it was previously used for. The DNS requests from Alfa and Spectrum could have been for SPF checks.

So, maybe a server that was sending mail to a handful of addresses at Spectrum and Alfa. Maybe something else like a file server. If I (a total amateur) was setting up a nefarious backchannel I'd do it with statically configured VPNs, but that wouldn't have generated any DNS lookups at all.

It sure is weird though, especially after the NYT call with Alfa. On preview, I'm leaning towards holgate's idea.
posted by figurant at 5:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh for fuck's sake. I don't have time for there to be election news tonight. Can we just put a 24-hour hold on election news?

I mostly just came here to post this delightful tweet and that if I make it through my frigging computer science exam tomorrow I am totally buying the t-shirt.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Trump's camp is already out with a reaction to the Slate story - the biggest sign yet to me that this thing is for real. Really for real.
posted by sallybrown at 5:55 PM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

The researchers don't think it's a shitty spam server/malware infection, because of the traffic pattern. And besides, if it was something like that, you wouldn't - not even if you're Trump - just fire it up again once you've migrated it to the new domain, not unless you wanted it to keep doing what it was doing.
posted by Devonian at 5:55 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I suppose the most banal explanation might be this:

I largely agree and that's what I've been trying to puzzle out, because it seems like there should be a banal explanation for all this (the internet is a big place, there's a lot of weird traffic with banal explanations). The Trump-Email.com server dropping off DNS a few hours after the Times calls Alfa Bank is suspicious, but there are rational explanations that aren't nefarious.

The part that I can't come up with a plausible explanation for is why this server, which apparently spits out the occasional bit of Trump hotel spam to Spectrum Health, only has DNS lookups from Spectrum and Alfa and not, you know, any of the other machines on the internet, of which I hear there are quite a few. It doesn't seem particularly likely that they happened to have a server that just sent the occasional spam only to Spectrum and Alfa.

I suppose one question is where the DNS logs come from, which we don't know. If they only capture a narrow enough slice of the total internet's DNS traffic, it's conceivable that lots more servers were resolving Trump-Email.com, but through paths the logs don't cover.
posted by zachlipton at 5:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think we need to ask ourselves what the next crazy plot twist could be. Because that seems to be a good predictor. Maybe Comey is a Russian agent!
posted by diogenes at 5:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

The money grafs from the NYTimes tax story linked above:
Regardless of whether the I.R.S. objected, Mr. Trump’s tax avoidance in this case violated a central principle of American tax law, said Mr. Buckley, the former chief of staff for Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation who later served as chief tax counsel for Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee.

“He deducted somebody else’s losses,” Mr. Buckley said. By that Mr. Buckley means that only the bondholders who forgave Mr. Trump’s unpaid casino debts should have been allowed to use those losses to offset future income and reduce their taxes. That Mr. Trump used the same losses to reduce his taxes ultimately increases the tax burden on everyone else, Mr. Buckley explained. “He is double dipping big time.”

In any event, Mr. Trump can no longer benefit from the same maneuver. Just as Congress acted in 1993 to ban stock-for-debt swaps by corporations, it acted in 2004 to ban equity-for-debt swaps by partnerships.

Among the members of Congress who voted to finally close the loophole: Senator Hillary Clinton of New York.
posted by peacheater at 6:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [63 favorites]

I wonder if the reason Comey held back on this wasn't for reasons of wanting to help the Republicans, but for reasons of keeping this investigation on the DL to avoid giving up the game to Trump or Putin? There is not much time if the FBI only started digging into this in August.
posted by sallybrown at 6:01 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Can we open up a metachat? I feel like we need a metachat.
posted by diogenes at 6:02 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Let me just make sure I have this right. In the past, say, four hours, we've had:

- Slate with the email server/Russian bank story
- MoJo with the Russian operation to cultivate Trump story
- NYT with leaked Trump tax documents on a dodgy tax-avoidance maneuver
- CNN with a leaked tape of Sen. Burr joking about people shooting Clinton

Because I'm seriously exhausted.
posted by zachlipton at 6:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [42 favorites]

- NBC reports an FBI probe into Trump's ties to Russia.
posted by diogenes at 6:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Now the Post gets a swing at the pinata:

Trump and Putin share a frightening worldview [you're tellin me!] by the Editorial Board

Most people living in open societies are informed enough to perceive the cynicism and mendacity in Mr. Putin’s comparisons. But Russia’s increasingly sophisticated Internet and satellite television propaganda operations are winning over a segment of Western opinion. Mr. Trump, too, has adopted Mr. Putin’s view. He has repeatedly endorsed Moscow’s call for the West to join Russia in fighting “terrorism,” and he has written off Aleppo as “ basically fallen.”

If Mr. Trump is elected, the United States will have a president who sees no essential difference between the U.S. and Russian military offensives in the Middle East. Mr. Putin will be vindicated: The moral gap between his regime and the White House will be difficult to detect.

posted by sallybrown at 6:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm sorry I can only process this as fiction.
...
Who do we think is the Russian agent in Trump's campaign? Boris?
posted by schadenfrau at 6:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

what

what is HAPPENING
posted by kyrademon at 6:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [26 favorites]

I would dearly love to see the Slate info and the Mother Jones info merge in media stories (with proper credit given where due). I don't see this story moving e-mails off the map otherwise. And if I hear of media editors and management refusing to publish because it's too close to the election, I will be very angry indeed. We don't want that.

Seriously, my blood ran cold when the intel operative disclosed that his Russian sources said they had enough on Trump to attempt to blackmail him. This is beyond hacking and influencing an election. The ability to blackmail and/or manipulate the elected leader of a major western power must be driving the Russian power structure wild. If they can get it to work out, that is.

I so hope these stories catch on; I'm unsure of what all the FBI is sitting on, but either of these stories should be widely published before too many more have voted. It's only fair to the voters.
posted by Silverstone at 6:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

I could be wrong but I don't feel like the Slate story is going to get huge traction - it's too technical for the average voter to get. It's not easy enough to boil down into "DOESN'T PAY TAXES" or "DELETED THOUSANDS OF EMAILS" in the way that seems to actually move the needle in one direction or another.

Clinton's framing on Twitter and FB seems pretty simple, Trump has a secret server connection to a Russian bank. If the emails tell us anything, secret servers sell.
posted by chris24 at 6:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

All of this is going to cancel itself out and the story tomorrow will still be Clinton emails. Polls will continue moving to Trump.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Comey, as he updates his resumé: "Thank Christ, at least they've stopped talking about me for a minute." [fake, yet so plausible]
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump's camp is already out with a reaction to the Slate story

...an existing banking customer of Cendyn, completely unrelated to Trump, used Cendyn's "Metron" Meeting Management Application to send communication to Alfabank.com.

First of all ... what does "existing banking customer" mean? Cendyn is a bank, too? And really, they're using your server to have meetings with a Russian bank? Really?
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:12 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I really hope that the Clinton campaign doesn't jump too hard on the weird server for the moment.

If Cendyn was just using As or CNAMEs across multiple IPs on a large listmail box or cluster, then the Trump campaign statement sounds plausible. Assigning discrete IPs is one way to improve deliverability for marketing mail with the big recipients.

(The PTR/rDNS lookup for 66.216.133.29 right now is "mail1.trump-email.com.", but "trump1.contact-client.com" maps to the same IP. The PTRs for IPs in the same range follow similar non-Trump-related schemes you'd expect from clients who'd bought access to a dedicated IP for marketing mail. So, did TrumpOrg have a dedicated outbound IP for marketing email or a shared one? Or was it just a DNS zonefile fuckup with IP assignment? Dunno.)

Anyway, we have Russia stuff and tax stuff in one night, and I expect there'll be sex stuff in the next day or two. We'll see if Trump really is Mr Burns where all the final-week scandals cancel one another out.
posted by holgate at 6:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I think we may need a new thread for this new twist.
posted by Jalliah at 6:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Trump's camp is already out with a reaction to the Slate story - the biggest sign yet to me that this thing is for real. Really for real.

So the "it's a shared server used by lots of clients of the email marketing firm" explanation is certainly plausible, but what's missing is a good explanation for why two recipients, Spectrum and Alfa, would make DNS lookups for the Trump-Email.com domain in response to receiving email for an unrelated client.

The other unanswered question is why Hope Hicks would say that the server "has not been used since 2010," when Spectrum reports receiving Trump hotel spam from it. I'd also like to know why the Trump Organization, a group so thrifty it frequently stiffs small businesses on its bills, has been paying for a email marketing system they haven't used for six years.
posted by zachlipton at 6:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [15 favorites]

So basically, this oppo, it droppos?
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:15 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I think the oppo just droppoed.
posted by diogenes at 8:45 PM on October 31

It's still October. This could be amazing.
posted by Surely This at 6:15 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Comey, as he updates his resumé: "Thank Christ, at least they've stopped talking about me for a minute." [fake, yet so plausible]

I don't think so, because the buzz on Twitter seems to be that the FBI has been investigating Russian attempts to influence the election, and Comey said the FBI couldn't comment on it because it might influence the election. I don't know CNBC is the only source reporting it, but this is definitely being talked about as a Comey-is-biased story.

Urggghhh. I need to stop reading twitter and study. And I can't tear myself away.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Yup, it's gonna be hard to top this October Surprise.
posted by diogenes at 6:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Quick, flash Trump's Mirror at everything else in the room! An email server can't be the only thing that turns to popcorn and hypocrisy.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Comey, as he updates his resumé: "Thank Christ, at least they've stopped talking about me for a minute." [fake, yet so plausible]

CUT TO:

A shadow falls across Comey's desk, startling him. He squints at the doorway, where the shadow shifts position to reveal the silhouette of a man.

The figure steps into the light: it's SENATOR HARRY REID. He extends his arm to reveal a stopwatch, which begins to beep.

REID (shutting off stopwatch): Comey. Minute's up.

FADE OUT
posted by Rykey at 6:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

I would be surprised if these russia stories make any difference. Trump voters don't understand (actually, I probably don't either) and don't care.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:19 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

The only way that it makes a difference is that it pushes Hillary's emails off of the top of the news cycle, and that actually does make a difference. I don't think it makes a huge difference, but having the top news story be Hillary's emails for the next week wouldn't have been good.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:21 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

I agree Wikileaks is partisan in terms of this election. However, every publisher is partisan. WL is the only publisher that actually provides evidence for every single claim they make.

This is a super weird way to try to defend Wikileaks.

Look, this is not that hard:

In a vacuum, something like Wikileaks could be a force for the public good. In that theoretical scenario, this would come about by such an organization being a clearinghouse that verifies authenticity as possible and publishes basically everything they get, when they get it, to allow the public to come to their own conclusion.

That being said, in the real world, the people running Wikileaks are using it to push specific agendas. They are not just releasing everything for the public to decide. They are choosing to tactically release information at specific times for a specific political effect. They are not looking to let anyone make their own conclusions -- they want to be the people driving the conclusions, by choosing what to publish, when, and how to frame it. For all we know, they may be sitting on a trove of information that would make Trump look as bad or worse than anything they've published on Clinton, but they're so obviously against Clinton we can't really believe they'd publish it if they had it. This is quite literally them acting in an editorial fashion.

Even if nothing Wikileaks is publishing is modified or fake (which is a big "if"), then where that leaves us is that while they may not be editing for content, they are very heavily editing for context.
posted by tocts at 6:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [22 favorites]

You know who will have a great comment on this story? Former spy Egg McMuffin. Egg, time to leak like you're over easy.
posted by sallybrown at 6:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [37 favorites]

I do think that Trump really and truly does not think he is in Putin's pocket. So when he says he's not a puppet he isn't lying because he's too stupid to realize when he's being manipulated especially by people who are masters at it. He more than likely has convinced himself that he is the one with the power and if anything is using them.

I'm 100% sure this is how it went down
posted by theodolite at 6:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

Yeah, I can't get much sense out of the Trump reaction to the server story. Perhaps there's a longer version that joins the dots, but it's curiously light on actual denials to specific points. Shared servers fuzz the picture, sure, but it's by no means an 'aw, ok, yes, that makes sense' bullet-point list of 'this is what happened, and why it looks odd'.

Which is interesting, given that TrumpOrg (and the other actors) have known this was in the works for long enough to have commissioned various security audits and third-party checks (or at least claim to have done so), ready to roll out once the story went live.

Hope the NYT has more. I still can't calibrate my cock-up v conspiracy meter.
posted by Devonian at 6:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

October Surprise? Well, first, it would need to be actually surprising, but I previously noted that, considering the declining impact of misogyny revelations, that what really needed was a stronger Trump-to-Russia connection. So I, for one, am satisfied.

Trump voters don't understand and don't care.
No, there are a large number of 'soft' Trump supporters and 'not committed to Trump' Republicans who still think Russia is the USSR and prefer The Cold War to whatever we've gotten into since.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

CNN has none of this, and is still on Comey/Clinton with Anderson Cooper, I shit you not, leading a 12 man circular table discussion about emails.

Let's not declare any of this the silver bullet until more than one major news network goes with any of it. Single source stories and IP address links are both pretty tenuous and aren't going to break through the easy EMAILS! narrative that they want to run for the next week without some more evidence. Color me surprised if any of these "oppo drops" are still around in 24 hours over EMAILS!, or whatever crazy shit happens tomorrow. Possibly with the exception of the Burr tape, which could hurt him.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Aww Hillz I luvs ya, but...

This is the last time I’ll come to you with an end-of-month deadline before Election Day.

This is not a remotely reassuring statement, given that I understand how the calendar works. Saying you won't ask for another end-of-month deadline donation (as opposed to the "email scandal help" donation and the "polls are tight" donation) in the next 5.5 hours is not compelling.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 6:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

(Meanwhile, Marla Maples is back to posting about a pumpkin ;-)
posted by sallybrown at 6:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Holgate:

I really hope that the Clinton campaign doesn't jump too hard on the weird server for the moment. If Cendyn was just using As or CNAMEs across multiple IPs on a large listmail box or cluster, then the Trump campaign statement sounds plausible. Assigning discrete IPs is one way to improve deliverability for marketing mail with the big recipients.

(The PTR/rDNS lookup for 66.216.133.29 right now is "mail1.trump-email.com.", but "trump1.contact-client.com" maps to the same IP. The PTRs for IPs in the same range follow similar non-Trump-related schemes

I can't disagree with anything you said there (because I have no idea what it means). But I'm pretty sure that Trump won't be able to articulate that excuse.
posted by msalt at 6:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

And if this is the only "oppo drop" that the Clinton campaign has left, they're down to dry firing the gun and throwing it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Its the last End Of Month deadline, because there are none more months before the election.

I'm assuming there will be many Trump legal defense fund emails to keep the lawsuits going though from his camp.
posted by mrzarquon at 6:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

And if this is the only "oppo drop" that the Clinton campaign has left, they're down to dry firing the gun and throwing it.

And we all know that's the point where Superman *ducks*
posted by valkane at 6:29 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'd love to see the timeline for those map / dns changes to rotate again. I would be surprised if they do it quickly, and break their shit, or literally sit exposed for days like that. I don't see them as a very devopsy/agile shop that has been doing redteaming and chaos monkey drills for their infrastructure.
posted by mrzarquon at 6:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

New York Times: U.S. Officials Doubt Donald Trump Has Direct Link to Russia

F.B.I. officials declined to comment on Monday. Intelligence officials have said in interviews over the last six weeks that apparent connections between some of Mr. Trump’s aides and Moscow originally compelled them to open a broad investigation into possible links between the Russian government and the Republican presidential candidate. Still, they have said that Mr. Trump himself has not become a target. And no evidence has emerged that would link him or anyone else in his business or political circle directly to Russia’s election operations.

At least one part of the investigation has involved Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman for much of the year. Mr. Manafort, a veteran Republican political strategist, has had extensive business ties in Russia and other former Soviet states, especially Ukraine, where he served as an adviser to that country’s ousted president, Viktor F. Yanukovych.

But the focus in that case was on Mr. Manafort’s ties with a kleptocratic government in Ukraine — and whether he had declared the income in the United States — and not necessarily on any Russian influence over Mr. Trump’s campaign, one official said.

In classified sessions in August and September, intelligence officials also briefed congressional leaders on the possibility of financial ties between Russians and people connected to Mr. Trump. They focused particular attention on what cyberexperts said appeared to be a mysterious computer back channel between the Trump Organization and the Alfa Bank, which is one of Russia’s biggest banks and whose owners have longstanding ties to Mr. Putin.

F.B.I. officials spent weeks examining computer data showing an odd stream of activity to a Trump Organization server and Alfa Bank. Computer logs obtained by The New York Times show that two servers at Alfa Bank sent more than 2,700 “look-up” messages — a first step for one system’s computers to talk to another — to a Trump-connected server beginning in the spring. But the F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts.

Seems like quite a bucket of cold water of a headline compared to what's in the article...uncertainty.
posted by sallybrown at 6:32 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Right now, in political terms, I'd be inclined to go with "make him deny it" on the server, except that Cendyn might put out its head of ops (or their long-suffering sysadmin, let's call him "Kevin") to say that ugh, it was technical debt due to a dragged-out domain migration to move customers onto different sending and messaging platforms, and they forgot about the old trump-email.com DNS entry because they were maintaining all the zonefiles by hand... and I'd believe that.
posted by holgate at 6:34 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Sam Biddle of The Intercept on the server story (twitter): FWIW at least five outlets including The Intercept have been looking at this for weeks and decided it didn't add up
posted by sallybrown at 6:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

and I'd believe that

OK, but why did the machines reconnect?
posted by diogenes at 6:38 PM on October 31, 2016

The server is interesting in a Scooby Doo arooo??? fashion, but the Mother Jones article is CRAZY. Putin's agents compromising Trump for the purposes of blackmail? An ongoing operation of five years to develop Trump? What the hell? Mother Jones is using a lot of anonymous sourcing that is extremely unsatisfactory.
posted by xyzzy at 6:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

CNN has none of this, and is still on Comey/Clinton with Anderson Cooper, I shit you not, leading a 12 man circular table discussion about emails.

Let's not declare any of this the silver bullet until more than one major news network goes with any of it. Single source stories and IP address links are both pretty tenuous and aren't going to break through the easy EMAILS! narrative that they want to run for the next week without some more evidence. Color me surprised if any of these "oppo drops" are still around in 24 hours over EMAILS!, or whatever crazy shit happens tomorrow. Possibly with the exception of the Burr tape, which could hurt him.

This is me, how I currently feel about emails and what I want to do to constant media conversations about email.
posted by Jalliah at 6:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

What kind of a track record does Mother Jones have?
posted by diogenes at 6:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

And here's Lichtblau & Myers' piece: U.S. Officials Doubt Donald Trump Has Direct Link to Russia.

I think Frank Foer tried to scoop them and scooped himself. Last week cray cray.
posted by holgate at 6:42 PM on October 31, 2016

Given the Intercept's general anti-Clinton vendetta, I would trust them about as far as I could throw them.
posted by peacheater at 6:42 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

What's interesting about the NYT story is they don't say the FBI disproved any of the crazier theories, just that they have other potential explanations / they don't really know:

- on Trump: "And no evidence has emerged that would link him or anyone else in his business or political circle directly to Russia’s election operations."

- on Manafort and Russia: "But the focus in that case was on Mr. Manafort’s ties with a kleptocratic government in Ukraine — and whether he had declared the income in the United States — and not necessarily on any Russian influence over Mr. Trump’s campaign, one official said."

- on the server story: "But the F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts."
posted by sallybrown at 6:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Do you think any major outlets will write that the DNS stuff "raises questions"?

< /rhetorical mode>
posted by Dashy at 6:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

I do think Slate jumped the gun and published before the story was ready here. If it all checks out, it's a huge get for them. If enough reasonably plausible narratives emerge to counter the story (and given its technical complexity, this becomes an increasingly abstract discussion very quickly), it becomes another CBS News situation.
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

FWIW, Putin has accomplished enough just by getting Trump to get the GOP nomination and give Hilary a run for her money.

A man who openly said Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia should all get nuclear weapons came close enough to the White House to scare the living shit out of the citizens of every nation counting on the United States for their security.

The Baltics. Romania. The Caucasian states. The 'stans . All those nations are now on notice that an erratic buffoon could be the POTUS. All of them are now warned they are on their own.

So he doesn't actually need a channel by which to give Trump orders.
posted by ocschwar at 6:48 PM on October 31, 2016 [23 favorites]

Will they ever conclude that after 30,000 emails already scoured, "US officials doubt" there's anything different or new on Weiner's laptop?

Oh yeah, Clinton rules.
posted by Dashy at 6:48 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

From earlier today. Clinton +6 before and after Comey.

@BraddJaffy
NEW—NBC|SurveyMonkey tracking poll 10/24-30

Clinton 47
Trump 41
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Pre-Comey M-F
HC 47
DT 41
Post-Comey Sat/Sun
HC 47
DT 41

Poll: Clinton Maintains National Lead Over Trump Despite FBI Letter
posted by chris24 at 6:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

The fact is that US Intelligence Agencies are concerned enough about Trump and his known associates to carry out an investigation.

FBI sources aren't necessarily clearing him but merely suggesting that there is no evidence that could be used to prosecute Trump or his campaign.

FBI is pretty much exclusively concerned about prosecution. Other agencies worry about other sorts of things and I doubt they will reveal HUMINT or SIGINT without a smoking gun.
posted by vuron at 6:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Comey sure picked a bad time to erode trust in the FBI. I'm sitting here trying to puzzle over whether I trust whoever leaked to the NYT.
posted by sallybrown at 6:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

FWIW, Putin has accomplished enough just by getting Trump to get the GOP nomination and give Hilary a run for her money.

A man who openly said Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia should all get nuclear weapons came close enough to the White House to scare the living shit out of the citizens of every nation counting on the United States for their security.

The Baltics. Romania. The Caucasian states. The 'stans . All those nations are now on notice that an erratic buffoon could be the POTUS. All of them are now warned they are on their own.

So he doesn't actually need a channel by which to give Trump orders.

So much truth there.
posted by StrawberryPie at 6:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Weird, for some reason I no longer trust any word that comes from an FBI agent, including "and" and "the."
posted by schadenfrau at 6:54 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

It feels almost like "fog of war" / disinformation night. And on the back of the Mother Jones piece, there's intel scuttlebutt that the FSB might have a Trump sex tape, and this exasperated tweet from Liz Mair to focus on the women under TrumpOrg NDAs.
posted by holgate at 6:55 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Investigators, the officials said, have become increasingly confident, based on the evidence they have uncovered, that Russia’s direct goal is not to support the election of Mr. Trump, as many Democrats have asserted, but rather to disrupt the integrity of the political system and undermine America’s standing in the world more broadly.

Mission ... accomplished?
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [18 favorites]

Josh Marshall's take.
posted by diogenes at 6:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Well, the author of the Mother Jones story broke the Romney 47% story and won a journalism award for it. He also was the first to report that Valerie Plame had been working covertly and that Novak's article likely violated the Intelligence Identites Protection Act. So it seems like he knows people and has instincts.
posted by xyzzy at 6:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [67 favorites]

The Mother Jones article is a single source affair based on the claims of an anonymous "former" spy and seems like a flimsy hit piece to me. On the other hand, if the deep state wants to knock down the Trump campaign, whatever guys, have at it. So, meh.
posted by indubitable at 7:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

It's a shame that no whistle-blower working for Trump would be willing to use an anonymous method for dumping Trump dealings.

But if you had signed a NDA would you trust wikileaks not to release your personal data?
posted by vuron at 7:00 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

David Fahrenthold is appearing on MSNBC with O'Donnell in a bit.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:02 PM on October 31, 2016

Comey sure picked a bad time to erode trust in the FBI.

What a shame that whatever fascist leader who might come to power after an event like this might have to go to all the trouble of reorganizing the domestic intelligence services
posted by XMLicious at 7:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

On the other hand, if the deep state wants to knock down the Trump campaign, whatever guys, have at it. So, meh.
Must we continue with this idea that the "deep state", whatever that is, controls everything and everyone? If the "deep state" was so in control of the American electorate don't you think they could do better than an a 3 point Clinton lead over Trump?
posted by peacheater at 7:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [24 favorites]

Just because our deep state is flimsier than other nations' deep states doesn't mean it doesn't exist in some form or another.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Given how often we get anxious, maybe it should be called the "eep state"...
posted by tsuipen at 7:08 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

The world is everything that is the case
posted by hleehowon at 7:09 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

The paradox for the puppeteers is that they need someone lacking in basic intelligence, and lacking a true-north set of beliefs, to use as a puppet.

The best they could hope for is ... exactly who they got.
posted by Dashy at 7:10 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

David Fahrenthold is appearing on MSNBC with O'Donnell in a bit.

What this election is doing to me --> I thought for a second you meant Rosie O'Donnell.

I'm so frustrated with Liz Muir teasing her oppo and pouting in a corner that no one is doing the work to get it out. JUST TELL US. I wish there was a way for us to crowdsource it.
posted by sallybrown at 7:10 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

What kind of a track record does Mother Jones have?

Pretty good actually. They're very liberal, but do a lot of investigative work. They've broken several important stories, and I don't know of any occasions where they have been show to fake or exaggerate information.

I absolutely believe that they found an ex-spy from a European country who believes he or she found evidence of Trump's ties to Russia. Whether that spy is right, it's hard to say.
posted by msalt at 7:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [27 favorites]

I'm sure the NYT will have it edited by tomorrow.
posted by Dashy at 7:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

And if this is the only "oppo drop" that the Clinton campaign has left, they're down to dry firing the gun and throwing it.

Yeah, neither the tax thing nor the server thing (barring much more sourced and easily digestible work from the NYT) are going to halt the EMAIL SCANDAL TRAIN.

I don't think people have a very good grasp on how news works...
posted by Justinian at 7:15 PM on October 31, 2016

This is the Halloween Night Massacre. Last chance for a true October surprise; throw together whatever you've got and run with it whether or not it's really ready for press. If it's really not ready, throw it in a tweet, and if it's even less ready, tweet vague insinuations instead. If everybody does it, no one reporter gets singled out as the Dan Rather of this election, right?
posted by zachlipton at 7:15 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Alfa Bank statement (via twitter) alleging that the server activity is a potential spam attack (perhaps as part of a campaign to orchestrate a story like this one).
posted by sallybrown at 7:15 PM on October 31, 2016

What kind of a track record does Mother Jones have?

David Corn, who wrote this piece, is also the guy who got the Romney 47 per cent video in 2012.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 7:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

If Russia is trying to fuck with my head, they are succeeding.
posted by diogenes at 7:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

WikiLeaks was afraid of legal or extralegal consequences against Assange or other staff. WikiLeakers were angry at US corporations creating a financial blockade against the organisation with no court ruling or judgments – just a press statement from a US senator.

And the figurehead of this whole response was none other than Hillary Clinton. For Assange, to an extent, this is personal.
posted by SarahElizaP at 7:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Charles Pierce (twitter): Given 50 percent of the FBI is busy leaking vs. the other 50 percent right now, this might be the time to embark on multi-state crime spree.
posted by sallybrown at 7:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [42 favorites]

throw together whatever you've got and run with it whether or not it's really ready for press. If it's really not ready, throw it in a tweet, and if it's even less ready, tweet vague insinuations instead. If everybody does it, no one reporter gets singled out as the Dan Rather of this election, right?

Presidential campaigns since 2008 have increasingly become cruel and unusual punishment for the American people. Amend the constitution and replace elections with sortition.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Josh Marshall's take

"If Trump is advocating for Russia in the US political arena (he is), and Russia is conducting an espionage and disruption campaign on Trump's behalf in the US political area (highly likely), do I need to know if they're actually talking to each other while both these things are happening? I'm not sure I do."

That's the really important point here. If Trump is doing Russia's bidding as a volunteer or tacit partner rather than an explicit one, what's the difference?

Still, there's no reason in Trump's history before this election to think that this famous xenophobic guy would suddenly get all palsy with a foreign power. A coincidental pro-Russian turn seems less like than the rumor of a videotaped orgy in Russia.
posted by msalt at 7:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Lol, of course he's a Manchurian Candidate. That's how fucking stupid Republicans* are, not only nominating a racist fascist, but one that's a foreign agent.

A significant number of Republicans would just be relieved it wasn't a Womanchurian candidate.
posted by srboisvert at 7:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [36 favorites]

I'm so exhausted by now, I have no idea what will stick or mean anything to anyone at this point. "Let's burn down our country instead of share it" is a plausible platform position in what was supposed to be Year Hoverboards +1 and Year Autobot City +10. My brother and his wife are expecting another baby in a world where ~40% of our fellow citizens openly want an autocrat to use the levers of government to seek revenge, and a fucking tacky autocrat at that.

They want their revenge bad enough to ignore a couple dozen previously unthinkable outrages already. Maybe this one will be the FINISH HIM moment, maybe not. I've been out of evens for weeks and my satire calibration equipment is entirely shot, but I'm not sure this story will move the needle in America if the gist can't fit into five words of a seventh grade vocabulary. This story sure looks grimy, but I don't think I'd understand it in the span of an elevator ride or explain it while in line for coffee with someone or share it with a skeptical Facebook friend and get near the same gut-punch effect as the Billy Bush tape.

Yeah, neither the tax thing nor the server thing (barring much more sourced and easily digestible work from the NYT) are going to halt the EMAIL SCANDAL TRAIN.

It's so damn frustrating. The utter nothingness of EMAILS ROUND TWO takes like five minutes tops to explain, but by then folks are already chugging down the tracks that the right wing hate machine laid down long ago. "I KNEW SHE WAS BAD ABOUT EMAILS, WHICH ARE ALSO BAD."
posted by EatTheWeek at 7:25 PM on October 31, 2016 [16 favorites]

A coincidental pro-Russian turn seems less like than the rumor of a videotaped orgy in Russia.

I can't see Trump caring about that kind of "dirt" on him, unless it was something more out there...he loves bragging about his sexual prowess. He's the one who gave the NY Post the famous Marla "Best Sex of My Life" headline.
posted by sallybrown at 7:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Yeah, neither the tax thing nor the server thing (barring much more sourced and easily digestible work from the NYT) are going to halt the EMAIL SCANDAL TRAIN.

I don't think people have a very good grasp on how news works...

We'll find out tomorrow. I'm going to predict that the server thing (aka the Russia thing) eclipses the email scandal train.
posted by diogenes at 7:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Josh Marshall's take.

If Trump is advocating for Russia in the US political arena (he is), and Russia is conducting an espionage and disruption campaign on Trump's behalf in the US political area (highly likely), do I need to know if they're actually talking to each other while both these things are happening? I'm not sure I do.

This is kind of where I am. I think some of the narratives here have gotten ahead of the provable fact at this time. But I also think there's kind of a Schrodinger's Putin situation here. If Trump acts in a way that is largely consistent with receiving instructions from Putin, does it matter whether he actually does? It does matter of course, from a national security perspective, but from the standpoint of the election, if we can't tell the difference based on his external actions, it's equally frightening.
posted by zachlipton at 7:26 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

It's pretty much inevitable that this election will end with us having to watch a Donald Trump sex tape, isn't it.
posted by figurant at 7:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [38 favorites]

He did tweet "check out sex tape" and Trump's Mirror hasn't failed us yet*

* Except for when he attacked Megyn Kelly, saying "blood coming out of her wherever." I do have concerns in this regard, however, about the fact that he has a gastroenterologist as his primary physician.
posted by zachlipton at 7:31 PM on October 31, 2016 [20 favorites]

Such tiny hands!
posted by Floydd at 7:32 PM on October 31, 2016

I don't think a sex tape would hurt Donald Trump, unless it involved dead girls or live boys, and the very thought of watching a Trump sex tape makes me want to hurl, so I hope that's not the November surprise.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:32 PM on October 31, 2016

People Magazine has an article up discussing the FBI investigation. Sounds like the New York Times may have failed to represent what experts think in an effort to be balanaced.
posted by humanfont at 7:08 PM on October 31

WAIT we are saying that PEOPLE MAGAZINE, the celebrity fluff rag, Sexiest Man Alive headquarters, Your Mom's Favorite Magazine to Read at the Hairdresser, is more trustworthy than the New York mother fuckin' Times about an international espionage story? We are saying that, yes?

So I posted on Twitter today that in the future, when someone says "that's weird" we'll say "Regular weird or 2016 weird?"
posted by emjaybee at 7:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [66 favorites]

It's pretty much inevitable that this election will end with us having to watch a Donald Trump sex tape, isn't it.

And the sex tape is of donald and the pig from black mirror.
posted by Glibpaxman at 7:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [8 favorites]

It's pretty much inevitable that this election will end with us having to watch a Donald Trump sex tape, isn't it.

Only if it's the Ludovico technique...
posted by davros42 at 7:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ted Cruz dressed up as the Phantom of the Opera for Halloween. (twitter photo)
posted by sallybrown at 7:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

You can't really blackmail someone who has no shame about anything.
posted by ctmf at 7:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Disagree. Donald in flagrante will be a sight you can't unsee

Partially agree. I'm convinced that The Donald is a nevernude.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

I can't see Trump caring about that kind of "dirt" on him [an orgy videotape], unless it was something more out there...he loves bragging about his sexual prowess. He's the one who gave the NY Post the famous Marla "Best Sex of My Life" headline.

Nah, even Trump isn't that stupid. Besides, you know he's got hours of sexytapes. If he wanted one leaked, it would be out already.

If there's one thing this election has proven, it's "videotape or it didn't happen." That's why I recommend people keep sharing that video of Trump humiliating the woman on stage. Sure, the news people ignored it, but video has power and social media gives us a way to get around them.
posted by msalt at 7:40 PM on October 31, 2016

WAIT we are saying that PEOPLE MAGAZINE, the celebrity fluff rag, Sexiest Man Alive headquarters, Your Mom's Favorite Magazine to Read at the Hairdresser, is more trustworthy than the New York mother fuckin' Times about an international espionage story? We are saying that, yes?

People is actually pretty famous for its ironclad sourcing. They are extremely conservative about what they publish. When they fuzz the truth, it's usually in service of a celebrity they want to keep a good relationship with (which no longer applies to Trump).
posted by sallybrown at 7:42 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

The court ordered significant discovery in the DNC's voter intimidation suit against the RNC. See this twitter thread.
posted by melissasaurus at 7:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [21 favorites]

So Mother Jones might be feeding us a Trump Nothingburger? There's just so much crap on my Trump hate plate right now that I'm OK with not making room for more. I'm bloated wirh Trump hate.
posted by Joey Michaels at 7:45 PM on October 31, 2016

ctmf: You can't really blackmail someone who has no shame about anything.

He took time out of national debate to defend the size of his hands.
posted by bluecore at 7:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

The Atlantic has a good summary of this evening's stories.
posted by diogenes at 7:46 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

WAIT we are saying that PEOPLE MAGAZINE, the celebrity fluff rag, Sexiest Man Alive headquarters, Your Mom's Favorite Magazine to Read at the Hairdresser, is more trustworthy than the New York mother fuckin' Times about an international espionage story?

The year 2016, when we get our best political coverage from celebrity fluffmag People, sex-tip central Cosmopolitan, clickbait listicle-purveyor Buzzfeed, and comedy show The Daily Show.

(OK, TDS has been insightful on politics for years, but the others are a bit of a surprise)
posted by jackbishop at 7:46 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

David Corn (who reported the Mother Jones story) just retweeted this from Donald:

Donald J. Trump Verified account
‏@realDonaldTrump

Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow - if so, will he become my new best friend?

12:17 AM - 19 Jun 2013

That's a breadcrumb.
posted by sallybrown at 7:49 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

Come to think of it, an American deep state would be a good reflection of American democracy- a mess of plutocratic interest groups and old fuddy-duddy elites. The difference would be the absence of the hoi polloi of the actual electorate. If such a thing truly existed, it's just as likely they're pushing for the FBI investigation so the Democrats don't manage to have a sweeping unprecedented landslide. They don't want Congress and other downticket votes entirely out of Republican hands, either.

What's going on isn't the demolishing of Clinton by a previously cornered and weakened Trump. What's going on is containing the Democratic victory so the result is not entirely one-sided. Her success is being shorn, not completely stolen. Everyone stop panicking.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

It's pretty much inevitable that this election will end with us having to watch a Donald Trump sex tape, isn't it.

On repeat if he wins.
posted by srboisvert at 7:51 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Al Jazeera English chose one helluva year to close up shop
posted by Apocryphon at 7:52 PM on October 31, 2016 [34 favorites]

It's pretty much inevitable that this election will end with us having to watch a Donald Trump sex tape, isn't it.

On repeat if he wins.

I just realized what the worst-case scenario for the content of Trump TV is.
posted by mmoncur at 7:53 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Here is a May 2016 story from Politico about Trump's November 2013 trip to Russia for the Miss Universe pageant.
posted by sallybrown at 7:55 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

I have no expertise in this area, but this guy's take on Slate's mail server story seems to cover all the bases. Read on after the "garbage" comment for detail (and yes, it's Twitter.) Those of you who do have the technical expertise: does his argument hold up?
posted by maudlin at 7:57 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Alfa Bank statement (via twitter) alleging that the server activity is a potential spam attack (perhaps as part of a campaign to orchestrate a story like this one).

That differs from the Trump campaign's statement which gave the name of an explicit software package (Cendyn Metron) that caused the traffic. It would be weird for Mandiant (firm investigating on Alfa's side) to miss something like that and just have a vague hypothesis. So something still doesn't add up.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:57 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

OK, deep breath. Whenever I need perspective, I visit Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium. Not only does he continue to report 97-99% likelihood of Hillary's victory, but he offers a fascinating bit of long term perspective.

Wang focuses on long term polarization trends that are nothing but good news for the left. Since 1992, there is a clear trend toward support of Dems by Blacks, Asians, people with no religious affiliation, and white college grads (more recently).

Asians, in particular, moved from +40% toward Republicans in 1992 to +40% Democratic in 2016. Republicans, on the other hand, gained only with white evangelicals and white non-college.
posted by msalt at 7:58 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump would be ashamed of a tape that showed him to be unable to perform or humiliated in some way, and I think he is smart enough to be afraid of anything that showed him committing a crime.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:59 PM on October 31, 2016

Everything about Russia is nothing burger. You can't prove it, and it's not easy to understand. Doesn't matter.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

The court ordered significant discovery in the DNC's voter intimidation suit against the RNC.

I collect documents like this, and my "Politics 2016" folder is 1.62 gb, 371 files. (Admittedly, 1.5 gb of that is the first presidential debate.) Possibly my favorite single file is a pic from the whoisfrankzappa.com kickstarter: Vote like a beast.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Wang focuses on long term polarization trends that are nothing but good news for the left. Since 1992, there is a clear trend toward support of Dems by Blacks, Asians, people with no religious affiliation, and white college grads (more recently).

I do believe that accounts for their Gerrymandering, and ironically, that last ditch strategy to stave off change may also be the hastening of their complete downfall. I don't think we're going to like what's been brewing in those Gerrymandered districts, however.
posted by codacorolla at 8:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm kind of tempted to label Alfa as having some covert contractors internally for the Kremlin and why it is an exemplar bank / financial institution. It needs to make money, but not draw attention to itself and create legitimate lines of business under which to do their programs.

I wouldn't be surprised the oversight for the trump servers to route to theirs seemed ok during primaries (and really, looking at dns lookup traffic is pretty hard to spot).

So it's not even a "hey this is a shadowy organization" more "hey you guys get handed good deals and legit business easily, here I'll refer some of my best folks to help you with your massive growth"
posted by mrzarquon at 8:04 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

So between Reid's callout of Comey for his obvious bias in favor of Trump in terms of dropping speculation on Huma's email being relevant to the FBI investigation while failing to report possible links between Trump and the Kremlin yesterday and the multiple investigative journalist pieces out today I suspect that most of the Hillary Email BS will be neutered.

Trump surrogates will bring up Huma's email and Clinton surrogates will bring up Trump's emails and ties to Putin and it will be more or less a wash based upon whomever you already support.

Considering Trump more or less needs to find a contract between the Clintons and a hitman in charge of killing Vince Foster for this election to shift significantly I think Reid did his job and defused the bomb.
posted by vuron at 8:06 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

If our election season were shorter--like it is everywhere else--would all this last minute stuff have come out earlier? The reason I'm asking is that there was a period back in September when the race was a lot closer and Trump stood a much better chance of winning.

In Canada our election "seasons" are like two months start to finish. While we definitely get mired in the muck, the shorter timeline may be a factor in keeping the campaigns mostly focused on policy, and generally they seem more civil, as though the contenders recognize that even though they're mortal enemies today, the opposition's gonna be sitting across the aisle in a couple weeks.
posted by ugly at 8:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Wait until the big reveal is this entire email clusterfuck was the work of the North Korean hackers who, in revenge for The Interview, decided to sucker the U.S. into raising tensions with Russia, Mexico, China, and itself.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:10 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Ugly, you've made your point as well as possible . Please let it go. Everyone else, ditto. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 8:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

Considering Trump more or less needs to find a contract between the Clintons and a hitman in charge of killing Vince Foster for this election to shift significantly I think Reid did his job and defused the bomb.

I'm still worried he could win. As we're all aware, any forecaster can be questionable, but 538 has it 3/4 for Clinton, 1/4 for Trump. Trump needs to win two coin tosses in a row. That's totally within the realm of worth fearing.

posted by ugly at 8:13 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Daily Beast also passed on the email server story. I'm increasingly in the "this is weird but the evidence isn't remotely there yet" camp on that one.
posted by zachlipton at 8:15 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

Elections don't work like statistical coin tosses.
posted by Jalliah at 8:15 PM on October 31, 2016 [28 favorites]

The 538 probability takes into account that there could be a systemic bias in polling nationwide; as in, every poll could be showing Clinton with more support or Trump with less support than he really has.

This is... unlikely.

It also means that the 538 model caps out not at 99% likelihood to win but probably closer to 90% likelihood. The only way you could push your win chances at 538 above 90% would be if you were leading into double digits in the polls.
posted by Justinian at 8:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Current lead stories are:

NYT: Trump’s Tax Dodge Stretched Law ‘Beyond Recognition’
WP: FBI chief draws storm of protests on Clinton email probe
MSNBC: FBI Inquiring Into Ex-Trump Aide's Foreign Ties

At the very least, the "Hillary investigated again" story is off the radar again.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on October 31, 2016 [7 favorites]

Trump sex tape... wow.
posted by My Dad at 8:17 PM on October 31, 2016

If anything, these recent scandals hitting both candidates show that Silicon Valley is right about one thing: email is broken and we should kill it. I look to a future where all of our nation's political operations are conducted over Snapchat,
posted by Apocryphon at 8:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

538's reporting of likely election outcomes this late in the game is, to me, increasling bizarre. They seem to essentially be saying that this is their estimate of the chance that all the polling just plain wrong, and in the same connected ways. I'm not a statistician, but I find Sam Wang's analysis pretty compelling. I would have thought that as votes started being cast and there was additional evidence that all the politicking was not changing minds their model would converge towards a likely winner. Instead it seems to be going the opposite way, in particular because of the "trend line" adjustment which seems to project that if a poll shifts very slightly away from a candidate today it will do the same for the next seven days as well.

I'm disappointed as I think it harms their credentials and authority to talk about this stuff. But, I'm sure it draws more clicks and headlines.
posted by meinvt at 8:21 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Trump sex tape... wow.

Scarier than any halloween ghost story I've ever heard.
posted by rifflesby at 8:21 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Twitter dude is probably wrong vs the Slate article.

1- The servers had filters setup to block traffic that came from IP addresses other than among themselves. That doesn't fit the pattern for email marketing tracking stuff.

2- Slate had Paul Vixie review the log data and he went on record saying that the parties are trying to secretly communicate. So on the one hand we have a random IT guy in London without access to all the data, on the other hand we have one of the main authors of BIND -- the software which makes DNS and much of the internet work. Slate also has a bunch of other computer scientists chiming in.

3- When reporters asked about the servers the DNS records were changed to make them appear to go away, but they came back.
posted by humanfont at 8:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

I also have some concerns about a global cabal of DNS experts shifting through logs.

@ErrataRob goes into a bit more depth than I can on this:

That there are so many people with raw access to DNS for "malware research" is a problem demonstrated by this attempt to swing election.
There are researchers at universities and cyber security companies who get direct feeds from DNS service providers...
...under NDA, with the promise they will only use that information for malware/botnet/virus research...
...they grossly violated their agreements. It calls into question the entire system.
In other words, it' a hidden system of mass surveillance we've put up with for a long time, for malware, but it's used for non-malware stuff

There's sort of been this weird "nobody needs to know" attitude toward certain logging/surveillance efforts that are used to address threats to internet infrastructure, but when they start getting passed around so much and incorporated into news stories with significant consequences before all the facts are really in, it becomes increasingly concerning.
posted by zachlipton at 8:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

wow, what a day to step away from the madness . . .

anybody have a cliffnotes version? or can point me to one? understandable if no, but twitter is a goddamn firehose right now
posted by R.F.Simpson at 8:28 PM on October 31, 2016

Trump sex tape... wow.

Well if I was an intelligence person who wanted to get Trump I would look at his weaknesses. They're very easy to see. Women, youth, sex..as he said, he can't control himself, it's like a magnet.
Guy would be dead easy to set up this way. If the whole Russia blackmail thing has any truth to it I I'd bet that at least part of it is some sort of sex video with underage girls.
posted by Jalliah at 8:28 PM on October 31, 2016 [10 favorites]

If anybody wants a smile this evening, here's a charming tidbit I missed from mid-October:

Bold move: Clinton welcomes endorsement from the man responsible for Ice Town
posted by stolyarova at 8:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

1- The servers had filters setup to block traffic that came from IP addresses other than among themselves. That doesn't fit the pattern for email marketing tracking stuff.

This one I'm not so sure about. It was an SMTP server used for email marketing, outbound messages. Refusing to accept SMTP connections from just about everyone would make sense, as nobody should be sending mail through it except the email marketing firm.
posted by zachlipton at 8:31 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I keep forgetting to say this - thank you so much to all MeFites who have helped out the Clinton campaign. From canvassing and phonebanking, to donating, to pushing back on social media against all the bullshit, to VOTING.

Thank you so very much, this country is in your debt.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:32 PM on October 31, 2016 [33 favorites]

I voted. I voted for Hillary Clinton to be our next president.

It felt so good.
posted by cashman at 8:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [37 favorites]

More leaks from the FBI in the NYT, with some potentially promising info re: Weinermail:

- Robert E. Anderson Jr., a former senior F.B.I. executive, said it could take less than a day for the program to identify duplicates. He said that the program would organize the duplicates in a special folder and that F.B.I. agents and analysts would then check each of them to make sure it was indeed a copy.

- A warrant granted on Sunday allowed F.B.I. agents to begin searching the messages. While investigators found hundreds of thousands of emails on Mr. Weiner’s computer, they are focusing on a small portion of the total. The review is being led by the same Washington-based agents who conducted the investigation of Mrs. Clinton’s server.
posted by sallybrown at 8:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

anybody have a cliffnotes version? or can point me to one? understandable if no, but twitter is a goddamn firehose right now

Apply the usual grains of salt because it's Vox, but Today’s pile of leaks about Donald Trump and Russia, explained is a good start. Yglesias's takeaway is that this speculation is all good fun, but looking at Trump's actual policy statements about Russia are firm and clear and are dangerous enough on their own.
posted by zachlipton at 8:33 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

I can't even keep up with the breaking "scandals" any longer, and at this point in the election process - other than being used as a basis for potential future criminal or policy violation charges - I'm not certain that it matters. If someone leaked a tape of Trump committing (whatever vile crime you want to use here), his supporters would scream that it was faked and ignore all evidence to the contrary. I think we've reached the point where people are just saying, "Screw it, I don't care. This candidate isn't the other candidate, and that's that's all that matters to me."

Or at least, that's where I'm at. Hillary Clinton isn't Donald Trump, and that's all that matters to me.
posted by jessian at 8:35 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Watch for the Trump camp to leak a rumor soon exposing Hillary as a known member of a thespian society back in college.
posted by TwoToneRow at 8:36 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Thespians do it on stage, after all.
posted by stolyarova at 8:38 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

After looking through it some more, I tend to agree that the Slate story doesn't really hold up to much scrutiny. More importantly, the statements from Trump and from Alfa Bank don't really contradict each other, and together actually add up to a reasonably plausible explanation for the data.

Something like this:

1) Trump uses a third-party email service (Cendyn) to handle outgoing campaign mail. They register a domain name. They aren't really using the service anymore, but the registration still lives in Cendyn's systems.
2) Some other customer of Cendyn's actually does send mail to Alfa Bank (and perhaps to Spectrum health).
3) The spam filters on Alpha Bank's end do a reverse DNS lookup on the senders. For some reason, perhaps Cendyn hasn't quite configured their PTR records properly, this returns a the Trump domain name. The spam filters then duly do a forward DNS query for that address, and that's generating the log traffic.
4) To explain the fact that it's almost exclusively Alfa Bank doing the queries, it could be that this other customer doesn't use the service to communicate with many domains, and Alfa Bank (and the place in Michigan) are the only one with their spam filters configured a particular way to trigger the somewhat erroneous reverse DNS lookups, or something.
5) The timing of the shutting down of the old hostname and the opening of the new one could just be a coincidence, or somehow triggered by the investigations of Alfa Bank figuring out that something isn't configured quite right, or something else.
6) The fact that Alfa Bank starts do queries on the new hostname could just be the same weird misconfiguration thing still persisting.

There needs to few semi-unlikely coincidences lining up to explain all of this, but if you're searching through all the world's DNS logs, I think semi-unlikely coincidences must happen all the time.
posted by water under the bridge at 8:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

thanks for the vox link zach! wow what a read.

So, let me get this straight: a former spy has sources that say that Trump is a Russian intelligence informant who is being blackmailed (with a sextape?) into . . . doing everything that he's been doing for the past few years?
posted by R.F.Simpson at 8:41 PM on October 31, 2016

I'm not complacent but I'm confident that if we all vote and work to GOTV we're going to elect the hell or of Clinton. We all have to actually turn out, but I know I'm going to take my one ballot and fill it the fuck out and vote threw shit out of this election. I am so fucking with her.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

water under the bridge, you are a gentleperson and a scholar. Thank you.
posted by Salieri at 8:41 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

@HawaiiDelilah:
LOL. William Weld, Gary Johnson's VP just said on @CNN that Hillary has the temperament for president while Trump does not.
posted by chris24 at 8:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Yeah, Weld has been pretty explicitly trying to take down Trump for the past week plus.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

On the Trump mail server, it is looking like a bit of a nothing-burger, although I'll wait for more reporting on it. There's enough Trump/Russia stuff going on that I'm inclined to beleive that it could possibly be something.

Personally, regardless of what it is at the end of the day, I've spent enough of the last ~8 years crafting responses to absolute, knowing falsehoods and lies directed at Obama and other democrats to be absolutely okay stoking a little extra smoke from this possible absence of fire. Who knows, right? I'm just asking questions after all.
posted by neonrev at 8:45 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

I also have some concerns about a global cabal of DNS experts shifting through logs.

I emailed the story to my dad to see what he thought. He used to be an engineer at Verisign working on the root name servers there, deep in the cabal.

He replied, "I'm retired. Don't care. Already voted Clinton."
posted by peeedro at 8:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [68 favorites]

The Atlantic story linked above uses the phrase 'raises questions' regarding trump!
posted by medusa at 8:48 PM on October 31, 2016 [9 favorites]

New PA poll. And it explains why Trump is saying MI, MN and NM are possibilities. He's not expanding the map, he's desperately trying to find another path because PA is toast.

@ForecasterEnten:
F&M poll from Pennsylvania (Oct 26 - Oct 30): Clinton 49, Trump 38. Senate race: McGinty 47, Toomey 35. http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/913809798323927231-f-m-poll-release-october-2016.pdf
posted by chris24 at 8:50 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

Re Weld, since this moves faster than my tablet-- I noticed today that the lone Johnson/Weld sign in the neighborhood disappeared sometime over the weekend.
posted by rp at 8:53 PM on October 31, 2016

Enten is a little more cautious in his followup tweet: "Note: That Senate number looks nothing like most of the stuff coming out of PA. The prez number too is probably too pro Clinton. Still tho."
posted by maudlin at 8:53 PM on October 31, 2016

Interlude: Obamas Dance to 'Thriller' at White House Halloween
posted by BungaDunga at 8:55 PM on October 31, 2016 [17 favorites]

And it explains why Trump is saying MI, MN and NM are possibilities

Trump must be so far up Putin's ass he can't tell St. Paul from St. Petersburg
posted by localhuman at 8:56 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

It's pretty much inevitable that this election will end with us having to watch a Donald Trump sex tape, isn't it.

I wonder if we also have an idea of the content of Trump's classified intel briefings...
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:57 PM on October 31, 2016

I'm so frustrated with Liz Muir teasing her oppo and pouting in a corner that no one is doing the work to get it out. JUST TELL US. I wish there was a way for us to crowdsource it.

Crowdfund, not crowdsource, I think.

It's hiding in plain sight -- count up all the stories on the pageants and models and parties -- but the key sources who can knot it into a really ugly ball are under Trump NDAs and probably scared of being sued, given the threats against the women who have already gone public and the lack of sustained outrage (in the horserace media, at least) against Trump's treatment of women.

Look at the period between 1996 and 1999 in particular: pursuing the newly-divorced Princess Diana as his own marriage was failing (per Selina Scott, who's a credible source, and who talked about other aspects of 90s Trump here); buying Miss Universe; signing up Ivanka to Elite, the agency founded by Trump pal John Casablancas, then setting up his own modelling agency. Remember the Mother Jones story about the dubious visa status of Trump models and the weird Murray Waas story about whether Bob Guccione had left a blackmail dossier on Trump in his archives. Remember the jokes with Howard Stern. Then look at last week's Daily Beast story about his one-stop-date-shopping parties. Then think about how whether you've heard of any models signed up to Trump Model Management, the way you might know of models from other agencies. Surely he would have the best, the most famous models on his agency, right?

Twenty years ago, Trump started buying contractual control over dozens of young women and retains contractual control over their ability to say anything bad about him.

(We miss you, internet fraud detective squad, station number 9.)
posted by holgate at 8:59 PM on October 31, 2016 [62 favorites]

Today in observance of Halloween I did one of the scariest things a woman can apparently do in this country - VOTED. Felt good.
posted by skycrashesdown at 9:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [33 favorites]

Even if FBI leaks are good for Clinton I am REALLY TIRED of FBI leaks. They have no institutional control at this point. I am hoping for a workplace culture investigation on the level of the one performed at NASA after the Challenger explosion.
posted by xyzzy at 9:04 PM on October 31, 2016 [25 favorites]

We seem to have access to at least some of the same logs that Vixie did.
For example.

Do they look like real world data? Sure. But, also easily faked. I could
take the logs from my own DNS server of my emails from my mom, swap
in a Russian IP address, and get something equaly realistic appearing.
So yes, when Vixie says "The data has got the right kind of fuzz growing
on it", he's right, but it means less than it seems to.

Oddly, the published logs stop 4 days before the server was renamed, so
don't show the biggest smoking gun moment of the story. Seems a strange part
of the data to leave out doesn't it?

The slate article uses the term "ping" twice. It appears that neither time
is referring to an ICMP packet. So it's entirely beleivable that the
trump-email.com mail server rejects incoming connections with an error message.
Well, it's still up, so, let's see:

joey@darkstar:~>telnet 66.216.133.29 smtp
Trying 66.216.133.29...
Connected to 66.216.133.29.
Escape character is '^]'.
521 lvpmta14.lstrk.net does not accept mail from you (209.250.56.186)
Connection closed by foreign host.

"When the researchers pinged the server, they received error messages.
They concluded that the server was set to accept only incoming
communication from a very small handful of IP addresses." Indeed, but
Russian IP addresses? Nothing to support that.

This is entirely consistent with Random Twitter Guy's analysis. So is the
fact that other servers in the same netblock, but otherwise unrelated to
Trump, behave the same.

Tending toward Nothingburger.

(The most interesting part of the story to me has been learning about
Passive DNS data collection, which is apparently what "Computer scientists
have built a set of massive DNS databases" refers to. Actually, Passive DNS
was built by a ex-co-worker of mine. It doesn't seem to gather information
at the level of detail in the logs that have been provided, although its
data would be useful to verify those logs.)
posted by joeyh at 9:07 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

God that kid in the duck costume is going to have a lot to live down
posted by angrycat at 9:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [3 favorites]

It is patently obvious to anyone paying attention that William Weld thinks you should vote for Hillary Clinton rather than Johnson/Weld. But he can't, and shouldn't, say that given he gave a commitment to Johnson.

If it looked like Trump was going to win he might even withdraw from the ticket and endorse. But barring that he can't make it any plainer: VOTE FOR CLINTON NOT THE DOOFUS NEXT TO ME.
posted by Justinian at 9:20 PM on October 31, 2016 [19 favorites]

I suppose one question is where the DNS logs come from, which we don't know. If they only capture a narrow enough slice of the total internet's DNS traffic, it's conceivable that lots more servers were resolving Trump-Email.com, but through paths the logs don't cover.

For more on this, there's a report that "Dyn says they’ve seen queries to http://mail1.trump-email.com that didn’t come from the IPs in the story."

One of the odder parts of the story is that the logs show only two servers that tried to resolve Trump-Email.com: Alfa Bank and Spectrum Health. So you have to ask yourself, where do the logs come from and how big a sample of the world's DNS traffic do they really cover? Dyn would have a fair amount of DNS data to query against. It's possible that the logs analyzed for the Slate story cover a fairly narrow range of the internet, which would make what looks like a very big coincidence much less of one.
posted by zachlipton at 9:21 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

For those wondering what Trump could possibly be ashamed of in a sex tape?

Shaggy's 'It Wasn't Me' a new staple at Trump rallies!
posted by juiceCake at 9:29 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

The filenames of the 3 log files correspond to the names of 3 authoratative DNS
servers for trump-email.com. That the traffic is separated out this way
into per-server logs suggests that the logs were taken from those servers.

Not definitely, but if the data came from another DNS server, I don't see
why it would look like these logs do.

So this is looking like it could be a leak of data in some way from the
CDCServices provider that ran those servers and the mail server.

Also there's this bit from http://gdd.i2p.xyz/logs/README.txt

- Why was the zone file for Trump-Email.com removed from the three
CDCServices.com authoritative name servers at about 9:50am
Eastern US time on Sept 23rd? (Removed from configuration
files for ns1 and ns3; just delete A record from ns2. You
can still test this for yourself today.)

That seems like the level of detail of someone with access to the DNS servers.
posted by joeyh at 9:29 PM on October 31, 2016

"Dyn says they’ve seen queries to http://mail1.trump-email.com that didn’t come from the IPs in the story."

That's a very minimal statement. Where did they come from? Random scatter, or a few other repeating locations that might also be interesting?
posted by ctmf at 9:30 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

After looking through it some more, I tend to agree that the Slate story doesn't really hold up to much scrutiny. More importantly, the statements from Trump and from Alfa Bank don't really contradict each other, and together actually add up to a reasonably plausible explanation for the data.

Something like this:

1) Trump uses a third-party email service (Cendyn) to handle outgoing campaign mail. They register a domain name. They aren't really using the service anymore, but the registration still lives in Cendyn's systems.
2) Some other customer of Cendyn's actually does send mail to Alfa Bank (and perhaps to Spectrum health).
3) The spam filters on Alpha Bank's end do a reverse DNS lookup on the senders. For some reason, perhaps Cendyn hasn't quite configured their PTR records properly, this returns a the Trump domain name. The spam filters then duly do a forward DNS query for that address, and that's generating the log traffic.
4) To explain the fact that it's almost exclusively Alfa Bank doing the queries, it could be that this other customer doesn't use the service to communicate with many domains, and Alfa Bank (and the place in Michigan) are the only one with their spam filters configured a particular way to trigger the somewhat erroneous reverse DNS lookups, or something.
5) The timing of the shutting down of the old hostname and the opening of the new one could just be a coincidence, or somehow triggered by the investigations of Alfa Bank figuring out that something isn't configured quite right, or something else.
6) The fact that Alfa Bank starts do queries on the new hostname could just be the same weird misconfiguration thing still persisting.

If one had access to these DNS query logs, this would be an easy hypothesis to test, no? Set up your own server with a brand new name that you don't advertise to anyone, that also doesn't accept incoming traffic. Send some (small amount of non-malicious) spam to the Alfa Bank and Spectrum servers mentioned in the reports, and see how they respond? Perhaps also send the same (small amount of non-malicious) spam to a selection of other servers likely to be configured in the same manner (harder to determine; you might have to know something about the purpose of the machines and Alfa Bank and Spectrum that were involved in the Trump server traffic, or who set them up, and this would probably involve a fair amount of guess-work) as a control trial.
posted by eviemath at 9:31 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Whatever the outcome of all this, it's been a bit of an eye opener (perhaps a reminder) just how much smart people can glean from "just the metadata, not the contents of the email message."
posted by notyou at 9:40 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

I would just like to point out that twitter analysis guy is funny.

Naadir Jeewa ‏@randomvariable
Just want to make sure all new followers understand that Trump would like to subject me to extreme vetting if I were to come back to the US
posted by xyzzy at 9:42 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

I'm trying to imagine Chris Matthews understanding this server business enough to bother talking about it on his show
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 10:01 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

Is driving people to the polls on election day not a done thing anymore?
I can't volunteer much on a weekly basis, but I did manage to get election day (and the hangover day after) off work this week, and I can't find it as an option anywhere on the Duluth MN DFL Volunteer stuff. I have a good safe car, a clean record, and a small town boy's love of driving folks places they need to be, especially older folks who can't drive anymore.

Should I call the local DFL office and ask tomorrow?

(I mailed in my SD absentee ballot today. I'm with her, Paula Hawks and the depressing sacrificial lamb that is Jay Williams. He is a brave, sad and masochistic man. Voted for the first time against a distant but close-enough-to-have-met-once relative Senator John Thune, actually. Trump supporter kills all family ties.)
posted by neonrev at 10:02 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

ErrataSec: Debunking Trump's "secret server"

It's Cendyn that registered and who controls the trump-email.com domain, as seen in the WHOIS information. That the Trump Organization is the registrant, but not the admin, demonstrates that they don't have direct control over it.

When the domain information was changed last September 23, it was Cendyn who did the change, not the Trump Organization. This link lists a bunch of other hotel-related domains that Cendyn likewise controls, some Trump related, some of Trump's competitors.

Cendyn's claim they are reusing the server for some other purpose is likely true. If you are an enterprising journalist with $399 in your budget, you can find this out. Use the website http://reversewhois.domaintools.com/ to get a complete list of the 641 other domains controlled by Cendyn, then do an MX query for each one to find out which of them is using mail1.trump-email.com as their email server.

...

The response from the Trump campaign is overwhelmingly the most logical explanation. Trump hotel busineses outsourced marketing campaigns, who created the domain and setup (through Listrak) the servers. It's Cendyn who controls the servers, and not the Trump campaign. It's unbelievable that the Trump campaign would even have access to those servers, much less be using them. Far from being "secret" or "private", this servers are wide open and obvious.

posted by BungaDunga at 10:03 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

neonrev: Is driving people to the polls on election day not a done thing anymore?

I'm sure it varies a lot by location. Here it's not much of a thing, because we have early voting so most older people, those with mobility problems, etc. take advantage of mail-in ballots.

On the other hand, even without driving, there are bound to be loads of GOTV opportunities on Election Day. I'm told we'll be getting updates more or less hourly so that we, as field operatives, can make sure we're wherever we're needed most. I do recommend that you call your local office and ask them what you can do on Election Day.
posted by Superplin at 10:11 PM on October 31, 2016 [2 favorites]

Y Kant Doni Read
posted by kirkaracha at 10:16 PM on October 31, 2016 [6 favorites]

Sounds like the server thing is a big bust. All aboard the WEEKLONG EMAIL FBI TRAIN.
posted by Justinian at 10:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

choo choo 🚂
posted by Justinian at 10:18 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

Is driving people to the polls on election day not a done thing anymore?

Anecdotally, it's a thing that lots of people volunteer to do -- it's sorta kinda the Election Day equivalent of yard signs -- and it's typically oversubscribed, but there's no harm in talking to the local field office. As Superplin suggests, they may offer other stuff to do, and while it might not involve driving, it'll be valuable and valued.
posted by holgate at 10:23 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

I've come around to being skeptical of the Slate server story.
posted by humanfont at 10:39 PM on October 31, 2016 [1 favorite]

Here Are All the Insane Things You’ve Probably Forgotten About Trump’s Campaign
posted by kirkaracha at 10:40 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

On the other hand, even without driving, there are bound to be loads of GOTV opportunities on Election Day. I'm told we'll be getting updates more or less hourly so that we, as field operatives, can make sure we're wherever we're needed most. I do recommend that you call your local office and ask them what you can do on Election Day.

Ah, I don't know how things usually work in MN, but I used to go to school in a small town where the college kids were heavily recruited to drive people to the polls, and that matched with my rural SD experiences so I didn't know if that just wasn't allowed or something in larger cities around here. I've always voted in person in SD even since I moved to MN for a while. I'd just found out today that I have the whole day to dedicate to V-day this year, and if possible I want to drive low mobility/older voters to the polls. Canvassing and calls are a little out of the question for my work times. I cannot overstate how much I like giving people a ride somewhere, and perhaps some of them, like me, prefer to vote in person.
posted by neonrev at 10:41 PM on October 31, 2016

Ugh. Lots of the analysis done on the Slate story so far has been incisive and convincing, but ErrataSec's debunking is particularly stupid. I have registered thousands of domains in my lifetime and frequently listed the ISP I worked for as the administrator of the domain for a particular registrant. Despite this, my clients still effectively controlled the domain. If they called me up and told me to change an MX record, I did so. Public (and private) domain registration records are not always accurate maps of effective infrastructure. So while I agree with ErrataSec's conclusions to some extent, the route he took to get there is based on some false assumptions about the practicalities of domain administration.

So, yes, probably a nothingburger, but Twitter Analysis Guy had a much more interesting analysis.
posted by xyzzy at 10:44 PM on October 31, 2016 [11 favorites]

Here Are All the Insane Things You’ve Probably Forgotten About Trump’s Campaign

Trump's Mirror in the primaries:
Trump on Cruz, February 20: “Lying #Ted Cruz just came out with a sneak and sleazy robocall. He holds up the Bible, but in fact is a true lowlife pol!”

Trump on Rubio, February 26: “Lightweight choker Marco Rubio looks like a little boy onstage. Not presidential material!”

Trump on Carson, November 12, 2015: “It’s in the book that he’s got a pathological temper. That’s a big problem because you don’t cure that … as an example: child molesting. You don’t cure these people. You don’t cure
a child molester. There’s no cure for it. Pathological.”

Trump on Paul, August 10, 2015: “Truly weird Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky reminds me of a spoiled brat without a properly functioning brain.”
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:02 PM on October 31, 2016 [4 favorites]

There needs to few semi-unlikely coincidences lining up to explain all of this, but if you're searching through all the world's DNS logs, I think semi-unlikely coincidences must happen all the time.
posted by water under the bridge at 11:39 AM on November 1 [3 favorites +] [!]

I'm jumping ahead 30-40 comments, so sorry if this has already been responded to: But, this is exactly why Slate followed up with so many specialists in this area. It would take a whole series of unlikely coincidences to create the appearance of an asynchronous email exchange between two specific domains. Fwiw, I'm a former large infrastructure project manager.

Occam's (Trump's) razor and all that. I think there are legs to this.
posted by michswiss at 11:22 PM on October 31, 2016 [13 favorites]

Calling the campaign office to offer to drive people to the polls on Election Day is sort of like calling the soup kitchen to ask if you can come in and work for a few hours on Christmas Eve.
posted by EarBucket at 11:24 PM on October 31, 2016 [14 favorites]

The GOP Is Gearing Up To Block ANY Clinton Nominee To The Supreme Court
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:48 AM on October 31 [2 favorites +] [!]

"This is a clear abdication by the senator [Ted Cruz] of his responsibility to carry out in good faith the advice and consent function set forth in the Constitution. Nobody can make him do it -- just as nobody can make him show up for a vote -- but he is saying that he won't do his job," said Paul Painter, a professor of law at the University of Minnesota and former White House counsel in the George. W. Bush administration.

"If high-ranking leaders in the Republican Party, my own party, conduct themselves in this fashion, our party will soon be irrelevant in the Senate as everywhere else on the political landscape. The voters simply will not put up with it."

I hope he's correct on that last point...

That "not doing his job" right there is the dereliction of duty I was talking about. This isn't making a different type of sausage; this is shooting the butcher.
posted by iffthen at 11:27 PM on October 31, 2016 [12 favorites]

I think it's most likely that Trump's server is actually in support of spammers working to promote Trump's hotels. Here's an article (although somewhat hyperbolic) in support of that hypothesis. Of Trump's many many MANY offenses, directly working for Putin isn't one of them.

But working for Putin inadvertently? All over the place. And there are like a thousand other reasons not to vote for Trump.
posted by JHarris at 11:35 PM on October 31, 2016

(Ah, I see someone already responded to my link above. Nevermind then.)
posted by JHarris at 11:37 PM on October 31, 2016

Emailghazi Reloaded turned out to be nothing of substance and it's looking like the same story for From Russia With Server. We're to the part of the battle where all the real shots are spent, so now they're dumping nails and silverware into the cannon, firing anything and everything that stands a chance of making it across the water. Next is throwing grapples, a boarding action, and me not liking this metaphor anymore.

I've spent enough of the last ~8 years crafting responses to absolute, knowing falsehoods and lies directed at Obama and other democrats to be absolutely okay stoking a little extra smoke from this possible absence of fire. Who knows, right? I'm just asking questions after all.

Ha geez this resonates with me, but I think my feeling might be coming from the dark side of the Force. Am I disappointed that this story is not true and won't score political points for my side, or am I relieved for the sake of the country that the Russian destabilization plot might be more fiction than fact so far? There is a part of me that would love to watch Trump twist in the wind over nothing, and would consider it fair dues for all the ridiculous nonsense from dead enders and conspiracy nuts that left wing leaders have had to waste time and energy refuting for my entire adult life. My contempt for Trump and the bigots backing him is so total that parts of me are entirely too prepared to believe any monstrous thing about them I might hear. Because that's the sort of poisoned thinking contempt and resentment lead one too.

Have you ever noticed that at work in yourself? Like, once you've succumbed to resenting someone, anything they do is potentially offensive and suspect. "Oh, there he goes again washing his coffee cup. Ugh, he would." Have you ever felt those viscous clockworks turning? For what Trump has done and wants to do to our country, I resent him very much indeed. And if I need stories about his poor character and judgment to be true in order to justify that contempt, I certainly don't need to go beyond the existing and confirmed record of his awfulness to add sweaty John LeCarre scenarios to what is already a very long and wretched dossier.

It would be nice to watch them suffer over nothing for awhile. Maybe I could even share and boost a couple articles, why not? It would be nice to stop resisting my disgust and contempt so much. It would be nice to ride that revulsion out of the world of fact, and into the world where the Illuminati doesn't want anyone to know that I've never been wrong. I am weary of this all and the temptation is always there. I'm trying to remember why I rejected right wing thinking in that "Real America" shit-ignorant small town I grew up in. I'm trying to remember that turning one's opponents into cackling fantasy villains is a real risk when you're worn out, angry and scared. I'm trying to remember that if there really are Russian troll farm operatives out there poisoning American social media culture, then me jumping at shadows and mistrusting inconvenient realities is part of what they're trying to achieve.

Do I want Trump to lose badly enough to want votes that were decided on over a falsehood?Isn't that part of what I hate about his party and his movement? I don't think I'll be talking to anyone about this weird, confusing story. But if I see it taking anyone in, I don't see myself burning much energy to stop that process.
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:37 PM on October 31, 2016 [29 favorites]

Well, let's hope Slate didn't just do for the Trump/Russia story what Dan Rather did to the Bush/National Guard story in '04 (i.e. tank a likely legitimate story by aggressively ((and publicly)) pursuing one false lead).
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:43 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

EatTheWeak, I think it's more likely that Trump's just in the Tyson Zone, where we've heard so many incredible things about him that are true that we readily accept new ones that might be false, because we've certainly had stranger things confirmed.

Oh look, here's someone saying that very thing over three months ago.
posted by JHarris at 11:47 PM on October 31, 2016 [5 favorites]

I've come around to being skeptical of the Slate server story.

Meanwhile, everyone has forgotten that Newsweek had a major story, well documented and indisuputed, about Trump and his staff destroying hundreds of documents and thousands of emails to avoid judgment in lawsuits and criminal investigations.

That story was published at 7:00am this morning. Why hasn't it gotten any play?
posted by msalt at 12:02 AM on November 1, 2016 [90 favorites]

There's a huge difference between "I have uncovered this specific act of wrongdoing and will make it public so that people are accountable for their actions" and "I'm going to pick through everything this person ever said and dig out anything that might be embarrassing."

See also: East Anglia CRU.
posted by en forme de poire at 12:06 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

That story was published at 7:00am this morning. Why hasn't it gotten any play?

In my case, I glimpsed the headline and assumed it was an old story. I'm so oversaturated with trumpenfreude that "Trump destroys documents" just sounded like something I'd heard already.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:13 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

In my case, I glimpsed the headline and assumed it was an old story.

That's totally understandable. But actually it's a heavily researched cover story that pulls together numerous meticulously documented cases across decades.
posted by msalt at 12:22 AM on November 1, 2016

It's the "Man Bites Dog" problem again.

HEADLINE: Hillary Clinton may have done something vaguely unethical involving email
RESPONSE: Shock! Horror! Who will save us?

HEADLINE: Donald Trump admits under oath to deleting thousands of emails that link him to criminal activity
RESPONSE: [crickets]
posted by mmoncur at 12:32 AM on November 1, 2016 [34 favorites]

Trump has said and done so many horrible things that everyone already knows what sort of person he is. Which suggests to me that the dog-bites-man strategy, so long as there is enough partisan support and media savvy, could get pretty much anyone past their particular peculiarities.

Vote Jeff Dahmer for Prez! Yeah, yeah, we all know about his past, but what about his future? He's been endorsed by the Chamber of Commerce! Dashin' Dahmer! Good for business! And breakfast! Morning Joe loves him!
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 12:39 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

One of the weirder parts of the story is that Lichtblau talked to Alfa Bank and the Trump domain soon stopped resolving, even though the bank denied any connection to Trump. The simplest explanation is that someone from Alfa Bank called up someone from the Trump Organization and said "what's with your server?" and they said "I don't know, we don't use that thing anymore, we'll kill it immediately." And yet, they started up with a new hostname a few days later. It's damn odd.

zachlipton - pretty much what xyzzy said. The possibility that you describe (server misbehaving, the parties agree to fix it) seems to be specifically excluded by the fact that the initial communication with the new hostname was from Alfa bank:

The first attempt to look up the revised host name came from Alfa Bank. “If this was a public server, we would have seen other traces,” Vixie says. “The only look-ups came from this particular source.”

When Vixie (who is every bit as authoritative as the Slate article says he is) says "we would have seen other traces," that's fairly solid logic. If you give a server a new hostname that's not within the same domain as the previous hostname - i.e. not going from mail1.trump-email.com to mail2.trump-email.com, but rather from trump-email.com to trump1.contact-client.com - there's no way for anyone to magically know the new hostname unless you tell them.
posted by iffthen at 12:39 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

To be honest, I don't think the public cares as much what private citizens do to avoid liability or even the appearance of criminality in a legal proceeding unless it causes pain to a significant number of everyday Americans. In particular, white Americans. For instance, people are incensed that almost no one who was responsible suffered after the sub prime crash and that Stumpf from Wells Fargo skipped off into the sunset with millions.

But moneyed folks suing each other? Yawn. A case from the 70s where Trump refused to rent to African-Americans? That's a bonus for a portion of his base, particularly those who are currently fighting the Man to avoid serving the LGBTQ+ community. And let's face it; hypocrisy is baked into many people's expectations of politicians.
posted by xyzzy at 12:50 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't know of any direct link between Russia and Trump and the DNS lookups don't seem to amount to much. But if there is a "secret server", then one wonders what the secrecy is still even for.

Trump has publicly proclaimed that the elections are rigged, that people should come patrol the polling stations, that they should ditch their mail-in ballots to come vote in person, that "2nd amendment people" might have to act against Clinton, and that he's going to keep us "in suspense" with regards to his acceptance of the outcome of the elections.

He is frankly calling for people to take to the streets on election day and bring their guns. It's a breathtaking assault on the legitimacy of the elections and democracy itself. The casual normalization of intimidation and abuse is shocking, and it's all happening out in the open.
posted by dmh at 1:07 AM on November 1, 2016 [29 favorites]

I don't think the server story is coherent. What's the logic behind it - that Trump (who hires and fires advisors on the spur of the moment) wanted a super sekrit channel for his super sekrit masters? That Russia, which knows how to do real security, thought an obscure server would be safer than proper encryption? This supposed technique would be like sending secret messages by semaphore instead of by mail. It is advertising the fact that you have something to hide. It just doesn't make any sense.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:28 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

It's Cendyn who controls the servers, and not the Trump campaign

If Trump isn't responsible for the server because someone else admin'd it, than Clinton isn't responsible for the exchange/bes servers because someone else admin'd it.
posted by mikelieman at 1:59 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

So halloween was when 2016 officially became a William Gibson novel..

Regardless of wether the server story holds water, it does seem that the signs of the Trumps having a treasonous association with Russia are multiplying. I deliberately wrote the Trumps because it seems the sons are deeply involved.

Above, I linked to a Guardian story about how Russia is trying to influence/control politicians in several European countries - it is entirely likely that they would attempt something similar in the US.

Though the sex-tape blackmail sounds fun, it is much more likely that the hold the Russians have on Trump is money - for all the jokes about his billionaire status, it is clearly known now that Trump lost nearly a billion in the nineties, and that he has difficulty finding finances for his projects. Some cash and some flattering coos, and he's sold.

The real scandal here is the FBI, though. How can they not take this seriously and act accordingly, in good time?* How can they know Trump is engaging with Russia and still actively support his campaign against all rules, both legal and honorable?

I guess I thought the police, and specially the FBI, were more like military folks: deeply conservative but also deeply patriotic and concerned about the security of the nation. in 2016, I've learnt that the FBI leadership were willing to give the presidency to Russia? Really? And out of hatred for Clinton? This is so crazy, evens don't make sense at all.
It is also scary, because it indicates that the police would be ready to enforce the dictates of a president Trump. I know, a lot of people have been saying and writing this already, but I'm old, I needed the Comey scandal to believe it.

I guess President Hillary needs to put comprehensive police reform on her bucket list. That'll make them love her even better

*During the primaries, the retired intelligence officer was doing oppo research for one of the republican candidates.
posted by mumimor at 2:10 AM on November 1, 2016 [25 favorites]

FBI’s James Comey Opposed Naming Russia As An Election Meddler, Source Confirms
posted by mumimor at 2:12 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Since we only have the metadata, we have no way of knowing whether the alleged Russians were using encryption for these alleged communications. I mean, I am less impressed with the server story now, but there is no indication in the story that the Russian bank is necessarily acting as an agent of the Kremlin and passing secret messages. It merely raises the question of what interest a Russian bank has with the Trump organization. Given that US banks won't touch Trump with a 10 foot pole anymore, it is a reasonable question to ask. But ultimately I agree that this story is meaningless, at least without further context.
posted by xyzzy at 2:15 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Question from a Canadian here: why is the Putin/puppet/espionage stuff under the purview of the FBI and not the CIA? Isn't this kind of material their wheelhouse?
posted by Klaxon Aoooogah at 2:45 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Back in February when I was freaking out that Trump was the same kind of authoritarian as Putin, I never suspected that he was actually buddies with Putin. This was before he started repeating Russian talking points. Anyway I was just trying to look up the quote from one of the members of Pussy Riot that I remember reading back then, comparing the two men.

But I accidentally found this wild interview from a few days ago with another Pussy Riot member, about Trump, Putin, and Julian Assange.. She knows Assange personally. I feel inclined to give her opinions a lot of credibility.
posted by OnceUponATime at 2:47 AM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

I love how the LA Times tracking poll has Clinton's lowest level of support among any age group as 18-34 year olds. Heckuva job LA Times.

But I can't stop checking the poll. It sits there, taunting me, every day. And every day I go back and my hate grows.
posted by Justinian at 2:53 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Also, for the "video or it didn't happen" folks... I'm pretty sure this video of Trump bragging about his relationship with Putin in 2013 was already linked in either this thread or the last one. Honestly I thought it was gonna be more of a bombshell. Maybe peope didn't scroll all the way down to the YouTube clip? Scroll down. It's worth it.

I think Jaliah has it exactly right, above. Trump truly does not think he is in Putin's pocket. He's too stupid to realize when he's being manipulated. He has long relationship with a lot of Russian businessmen, and feels like he is part of their club (actually he thinks he's president of the club), and doesn't see anything wrong with that. He wants so much to be in that club.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:12 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

I don't watch Morning Joe every morning, but today is third time I've seen Mika be weirdly aggro towards Harold Ford, Jr. in as many weeks. It's really weird and awkward.
posted by Room 641-A at 3:18 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

He has long relationship with a lot of Russian businessmen, and feels like he is part of their club (actually he thinks he's president of the club), and doesn't see anything wrong with that. He wants so much to be in that club.

But he's totally NOT A PUPPET! Trump's server thing isn't a smoking gun. It's smoke. The fire that MIGHT BE Russian Bank's influence on a Presidential candidate. There are questions about Trump's banking relationships.

But you know, compared to the legitimate questions about whether Donald J. Trump raped a 13 year old girl, it's hard to get all ragey about this.

BUT it does make me go, "WTF FBI?"
posted by mikelieman at 3:19 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

As usual, Samantha Bee is doing better reporting than the supposed news channels.

This is a strange world.
posted by kyrademon at 3:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [20 favorites]

Trump truly does not think he is in Putin's pocket. He's too stupid to realize when he's being manipulated.

It's really this. He's too damn dumb to realize, sitting out in the middle of a field with a bag and a flashlight, that there is no 'snipe' and no great victory party when he gets back.

When I first got to Germany about ten years ago I had a couple crazy conversations with builders who got burned by 'Russians' who had come with lots of money and wanted lots of building done and they should make a partnership, to ease things with the local building office. Some of the buildings actually got built but mostly the Russians took the State money being given out for most of these contracts and simply left. The ringer of the story is the Germans, the good, law-abiding and terminally square Germans never saw it coming because why would you do that? None of them ever saw it coming because the behavior was so outside of their frame of reference.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [49 favorites]

So halloween was when 2016 officially became a William Gibson novel..

I first heard about the Russian server story from his twitter feed last night, so yeah.
posted by octothorpe at 3:41 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

where did the dns logs come from? was dynsys hacked? is this officially sanctioned by them? leaked by an employee?
posted by andrewcooke at 3:52 AM on November 1, 2016

On the other hand an email marketing server would be a good cover story to mask your secret communications.
posted by humanfont at 4:00 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

It's 2016 because "Oh that old server? The candidate for the US Presidency was just using that to spam real estate scams" is the fallback excuse.
posted by ardgedee at 4:10 AM on November 1, 2016 [67 favorites]

So today nationally the LA Times tracker has Trump +4, IBD has Clinton +1, and in PA Franklin&Marshall have Clinton +11 and McGinty +12.

Those polls are irreconcilable. This thing needs to be over. Pls.
posted by Justinian at 4:11 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Is driving people to the polls on election day not a done thing anymore?

I have a friend who is a minister at a megachurch here in LA and they definitely coordinate to drive older and disabled people to the polls.
posted by Room 641-A at 4:13 AM on November 1, 2016

It took me an embarrassingly long time to figure out that y'all weren't talking about this or this kind of driving. Still, these may be feasible as last resort options? Maybe?
posted by Too-Ticky at 4:22 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

>>>> Trump must be so far up Putin's ass he can't tell St. Paul from St. Petersburg.

Borrowing from St. Petersburg to pay St. Paul?
posted by GrammarMoses at 4:28 AM on November 1, 2016 [30 favorites]

Dispatch from your local friendly Texas poll worker:

As if this election was not making people crazy enough already, they are now playing CHRISTMAS MUSIC in our polling place. God help us all.
posted by marshmallow peep at 4:32 AM on November 1, 2016 [36 favorites]

So today nationally the LA Times tracker has Trump +4, IBD has Clinton +1

Add 7 to the LA Times Tracker and it looks normal. Ignore IBD - it's been utter junk since at least 2008
posted by Francis at 4:33 AM on November 1, 2016

At least where I live, the Democrats are reluctant to organize driving people to the polls, because of liability issues. In past elections when my state has been a high priority, they've contracted with cab companies. But we're really focused on early voting, so the plan is to get people to vote by mail so they don't have to worry about getting to the polls.

If you want to help people you know get to the polls, though, I think that's a great idea. If you're a member of a church or civic organization, it's totally cool to organize something. People are much more likely to vote if they think other people they know are voting. If you publicly organize something among people you know, it will probably boost turnout even among people who don't participate.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Oh, and the Socialist People's Party in Denmark would like to remind Americans abroad to vote against Trump. That seems like a super expensive way to target 8,714 potential voters who live in Denmark, but it's pretty funny.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

As if this election was not making people crazy enough already, they are now playing CHRISTMAS MUSIC in our polling place. God help us all.

In the event that a Trump victory looks likely, they might want to have this one on tap.
posted by uncleozzy at 4:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

From Bklyn: that would play pretty well with both Trump's ignorance of foreign policy and ignorance of the rest of the world generally, and his tendency to rigidly categorize people based on reciprocity and their respect for him. All you gotta do is exhibit fake respect and real reciprocity, and there's still the thing about him wanting to be in clubs, and his potential need for cash to sustain his empire.

As for the new server thing, I pretty much agree that based on available evidence all you can say is there's a relationship between Trump's org somehow and Alfa Bank. That doesn't necessarily imply shenanigans.
posted by iffthen at 4:58 AM on November 1, 2016

Those polls are irreconcilable. This thing needs to be over. Pls.

Not really. Remember, the LAT poll can be swung by like three points by a single African-American guy in his 20s. Don't listen to the "cratering" talk, it's just that. If it makes you feel any better, check out this article:

Even amid blanket cable news coverage over the weekend, Democrats continued to add to solid leads in early voting in several key swing states. In Colorado over the weekend, Democrats stretched their early vote lead over Republicans to 31,000 votes, including a 1,500-vote net gain in Denver, the state’s most heavily Democratic turf. In Nevada, Democrats netted about 6,300 votes on Saturday and Sunday — stretching their overall lead on Republicans to about 34,000.

“If we’re looking to see some negative effects of the Comey letter, it’s just not there on the enthusiasm level of Democrats,” said Michael McDonald, an early voting expert who runs the U.S. Elections Project, speaking of the early vote in states like Nevada and North Carolina in an interview on Sunday, as the day’s returns were still rolling in. “They’ve still voted at the same levels they have in previous days. It doesn’t appear to have had a large negative effect.”

There was no sign of a let-up among North Carolina Democrats, who continued to close the gap with their 2012 performance, despite facing more restrictions on early voting this time.

“It was a big day for the Democrats, without a doubt,” McDonald said of Sunday results in North Carolina. “48.7 percent of people who voted were Democrats, 31.9 percent were African-American … they did make up some ground. There were 1,136 Democratic [votes] over their 2012 numbers” for that day.
[...]
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said that from the numbers he has seen, at best the revelations moved the race perhaps “1 or 2 points” — mostly in red states.

“In red states, Trump was running far behind the typical Republican already,” he said. Now, “it’s spurred a few to go out and say, ‘Yeah, I will vote’ … but when you look at places like Pennsylvania, or other places like North Carolina, for example, it doesn’t seem to be having as much of an impact there, and the reason being, those voters were already more tuned in to what is going on. Any of the swing states where the campaign has spent a lot of resources, people are paying close attention and…it doesn’t change what perceptions are about Hillary Clinton.”

Note that only one GOP guy spun it as awesome for Trump, and he's from a state where Clinton is ahead by low-to-mid double digits.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:01 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

When Vixie (who is every bit as authoritative as the Slate article says he is) says "we would have seen other traces," that's fairly solid logic. If you give a server a new hostname that's not within the same domain as the previous hostname - i.e. not going from mail1.trump-email.com to mail2.trump-email.com, but rather from trump-email.com to trump1.contact-client.com - there's no way for anyone to magically know the new hostname unless you tell them.

hell, it's hard enough to get the domain to resolve when you know the new host name for the domain.
posted by winna at 5:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm feeling good this morning, because I was able to help a friend get an absentee ballot, since our schools are closed for election Day, which means that she will be home with her special needs child, who can't go to the polls. That's one more vote.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:25 AM on November 1, 2016 [38 favorites]

I think ErrataSec is probably right about the secret email server and that it's nothing. I'm convinced that the server is hosted by Listrak:

$ whois 66.216.133.29

Listrak LISTR-01 (NET-66-216-133-0-1) 66.216.133.0 - 66.216.133.255

Windstream Communications Inc WINDSTREAM (NET-66-216-128-0-1) 66.216.128.0 - 66.216.191.255



$ traceroute 66.216.133.29

traceroute to 66.216.133.29 (66.216.133.29), 64 hops max, 52 byte packets

[redacted]

 9  te0-0-2-3.nr11.b030253-0.phl01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.24.51.126)  9.878 ms

    te0-0-2-0.nr11.b030253-0.phl01.atlas.cogentco.com (154.24.51.130)  10.313 ms  9.942 ms

10  38.104.110.130 (38.104.110.130)  10.273 ms  10.935 ms  9.984 ms

11  te0-0-2-2.dbsi-corertr-a.vf.dbsintl.net (69.7.225.32)  9.614 ms  8.999 ms  9.787 ms

12  93.59.197.192.static.dbsintl.net (192.197.59.93)  9.652 ms  9.165 ms  8.878 ms

13  142.0.94.30 (142.0.94.30)  12.140 ms  11.615 ms  19.490 ms

14  142.0.94.4 (142.0.94.4)  10.687 ms  10.139 ms  12.212 ms

15  * * *

16  mail1.trump-email.com (66.216.133.29)  11.799 ms  9.442 ms  13.830 ms

Its IP address is in a block owned by them and is reachable through a router also owned by them, which basically makes the story have to be "Trump arranged for a subcontractor's subcontractor's outgoing email server to be used in a secret way" which I just can't make myself believe. This isn't definitive but email is about as stupid as Trump is bad.
posted by Skorgu at 5:34 AM on November 1, 2016

I'm still feeling good about the election turning out right, in spite of polls and predictors and surprises and the like, for two reasons:

(1) Trump still has almost no viable paths to victory. Let's go ahead and assume he takes every state where Republican support was wobbly (AZ and UT) and takes all the authentic battlegrounds (IA, OH, FL) and manages to pick off the places where Democrats had a tenuous lead (NV, NC). He still doesn't win, not without getting a state where Clinton's polls are pretty strong. Unless polling is extraordinarily inaccurate, it's hard to see him winning.

(2) Democrats got the ground game. In a normal presidential election year, it seems like the Democrats have a slightly better GOTV apparatus, and polls and aggregators are presumably calibrated to that LV screen. This year, the Clinton campaign has a pretty highly functioning carpet of campaign offices and canvassers across the nation and Trump has, like, usually at least one office per traditional battleground state? Republican GOTV looks to be unusually dysfunctional this year, which can only work to the Clinton campaign's (and downticket races'!) advantage above and beyond poll numbers.
posted by jackbishop at 5:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

I don't actually take the LA Times tracking poll seriously. It just pisses me off that it sits there day after day, mocking me.

This election is going to be a real showdown between the tracking polls and traditional polls, though; if you were to only average the tracking polls Trump would be leading since the ABC/WaPo tracking poll has flipped to +1 Trump in the 4-way race and +1 Clinton in the 2-way. That's a 10-12 point shift in a week which is, of course, absurd.

On the other hand if you only average the non-tracking traditional polls you get an Obama-esque mid single digit victory for Clinton.
posted by Justinian at 5:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

RE Driving people to polls. A lot of places have this coordinated through local churches and social service organizations. We were given a phone number to give people who expressed a need for a ride that is not related to the campaign but is just a local elder services organization. The local campaign offices themselves are not providing rides.

However, there will be canvassing on election day, from 8:00 AM until evening. If you're available to drive people to vote that day, you're available to canvas. This is prime GOTV time and all hands are needed on that deck to remind people to go vote, help them figure out where their voting location is, and make a plan to go do it. Yes, even on the day of some people might not know or might not care! We need door knockers to remind folks, and also gather data on people who have already voted. The campaign offices will be coordinating with one another on an hourly basis to assign canvassers and volunteers to where they are needed based on the data gathered.

GOTV operations begin this Saturday and go straight through polls closing on Tuesday pretty much nonstop.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

I had a major sad when I realized this morning that my class probably won't care about the Russia thing in significant part because they weren't alive during any of the cold war. I'm not saying watch out Russia is super evil or anything like that, but jeezum crow, it is totally fucked up, as said upthread, the party of Reagan could be in bed with Russia to fuck up the election.

I did have this evil thought *I could show them the movie Threads to convey the tensions of the cold war* and that is my brain totally fucking with me, because a) that would be really mean b) totally outside the scope of the class, and c) sort of speaks to my desire to shake up this mostly white group of I'd guess mostly sheltered students.
posted by angrycat at 5:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Exclusive: 'There will be terrorist attacks in Britain,' says MI5 chief
Relevant for this thread because of mention of Russian activities, and interesting because of discussion of diverse recruiting. (There are non-US relevant things I wish the journalists had pushed harder, but they did ask about surveillance).

In the radio, I heard an intelligence officer explaining about the Russian activities, and while he said he couldn't tell much with our revealing their methods, he specifically mentioned the DNC hack as an example, and said this is happening both in Europe and the US.
posted by mumimor at 5:45 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

angrycat: I'd consider it a moral obligation to show them Threads or at least The Day After. No generation should grow up blase about nuclear weapons.
posted by whuppy at 5:51 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Republicans are now winning the early ballot returns in Florida.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:56 AM on November 1, 2016

This is likely a dumb question, but if you were trying to be secretive why wouldn't you just use the IP address?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:03 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Republicans are now winning the early ballot returns in Florida.

Well, Republicans have returned a sliver more early ballots than Democrats anyway. But this doesn't actually tell us anything without knowing how that compares to previous elections.
posted by Justinian at 6:05 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

> "Republicans are now winning the early ballot returns in Florida."

From that piece: "... there are almost 80,000 more Democratic [Vote By Mail] ballots gathering dust in homes around the state – but a large chunk of those are low propensity voters – volunteer to go chase those. Whether or not Trump wins Florida is largely on you."
posted by kyrademon at 6:08 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Republicans are now winning the early ballot returns in Florida.

Honestly, I sorta expected this after the media started crowing about strong Democratic numbers in early voting. Trump supporters who might have waited 'til the 8th to vote went out on Monday to make themselves feel better.
posted by Mooski at 6:10 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

From that piece: "... there are almost 80,000 more Democratic [Vote By Mail] ballots gathering dust in homes around the state

And my wife's ballot is one of those but thankfully after a lot of pestering on my part she filled it out and it currently sits in the mailbox waiting to be picked up.

Trump is not going to win Florida but it's going to be close which will only continue to fuel my seething hate for this place. A big thank you to Mefi and Wordshore for keeping me sane with these election posts.
posted by photoslob at 6:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

This is likely a dumb question, but if you were trying to be secretive why wouldn't you just use the IP address?

Not a dumb question at all, IMO that's one of the things that just doesn't add up. The alleged secrecy here is in a weird uncanny valley. You have someone that can suborn a 'normal' email server, configure it to accept emails only from a small set of oligarchs' email servers and keep up with changing MX records (manually?) but you still use a domain named 'trump' to do all that? And don't just statically configure outbound routers? It's not like DNS leakage is in any way novel.
posted by Skorgu at 6:21 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

On the other hand if you only average the non-tracking traditional polls you get an Obama-esque mid single digit victory for Clinton.

FWIW, the latest NBC and Reuters have Clinton pretty much unchanged (Clinton +7 and +5 respectively) from their pre-Comey polling. The NBC poll actually showed a slight uptick from last week.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:23 AM on November 1, 2016

Republicans have paid no price for blocking Garland. They will pay no price for blocking Clinton's SCOTUS appointments indefinitely. That's why they're openly signaling they're going to do exactly that.

The voting public also immediately forgot the 2013 government shutdown, and another one is probably 60/40 likely to happen again either in December, or early in Clinton's term.

The American public keeps rewarding Republicans for obstructionist tactics. There's no real evidence they've paid any price at all outside of Presidential elections since the 2010 tea party revolution. They're winning everywhere else.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:26 AM on November 1, 2016 [36 favorites]

Clinton by 1 is trending on Twitter.

:breathes into paper bag:
posted by pxe2000 at 6:30 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

The American public keeps rewarding Republicans for obstructionist tactics

Being a Republican congressperson is the only job you can have where you're actually rewarded for not doing your job. Or, I guess, where your boss (that is, your constituents) think your job is to not do your job.
posted by uncleozzy at 6:31 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Clinton up 11 points in Pa. in new Franklin & Marshall College poll
posted by octothorpe at 6:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Republican voters want government to not work for other people. Of course, if it stops working for them, personally, Republican politicians blame it on Democrats and the cycle continues.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:41 AM on November 1, 2016 [30 favorites]

Or, I guess, where your boss (that is, your constituents) think your job is to not do your job.

Ding ding ding ding ding! Winner winner chicken dinner!

From their perspective, the federal government working means that they're just spending your hard earned money on welfare for black people and single mothers. Shutting it down means those layabouts and sluts are punished.
posted by Talez at 6:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

This is likely a dumb question, but if you were trying to be secretive why wouldn't you just use the IP address?

I'd agree it's a good question. It would be easy if you controlled the infrastructure for everyone that needed access. A simple WhatsApp setup would be even better if it was between individuals. End to end for the win. If it is/was nefarious, I'd guess it is organizational and piggybacked on standard end points.

Still, a ghost server, left behind, sending marketing emails to just two domains, ::inferring the two already discussed:: would simply ask the questions of solicited or not, contracted or not. Eh?
posted by michswiss at 6:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

See the other thing is during a "government shutdown", social security is considered mandatory spending. So there's no appropriations to be had. What do middle aged white people use as defacto welfare scheme when they get aged out of the job market? SSDI! Until they hit retirement age that is. So their checks keep coming. Who overwhelmingly votes Republican?

What do younger, black and poor people use? TANF, SNAP, and UI! The first two get clobbered in a government shutdown.

There's literally no incentive for the Republican base to punish intransigence, Democrats being blamed or not.
posted by Talez at 6:52 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

Florida is unpredictable because registered voter totals are pretty close and while early voting typically helps Democrats mail in votes typically favor Republicans.

The ultimate result will largely depend on Latino turnout and distribution.

I feel good about Florida n general but I also feel good that it's not completely necessary for Clinton but essential for Trump
posted by vuron at 6:52 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Mother Jones has an extensive profile of white nationalist Richard Spencer: "Meet the Dapper White Nationalist Who Wins Even if Trump Loses." Spencer is president of the National Policy Institute, a white nationalist think-tank, and Washington Summit Publishers, an independent publishing firm.

At the risk of stating the obvious, he's also deeply racist and the interview/article includes a lot of WTF moments.
posted by zarq at 6:54 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

Guys, guys -- George Takei is pushing the Trump-Russia ties story on his facebook page.

Relax, everybody. Uncle George's got this.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:56 AM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

See the other thing is during a "government shutdown", social security is considered mandatory spending. So there's no appropriations to be had.

And the SSA staff who write the checks are considered essential employees, akin to customs and border patrol agents, who are expected to work through the shutdown with or without pay. Ask me how I know.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:02 AM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

If you want a true weather vane on Republican chances they just had known-jellyfishman Paul Ryan on Fox (I was at the gym ok!). First question: do you support Trump. Ryan: "I do support our nominee Just like I support the rest of our party (blah blah blah GOTV or the Democrats take the House and Senate)." He looked terrified and didn't say Trumps name once. That's what's at stake. The FBI thing ain't changing nothing.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:05 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Still, a ghost server, left behind, sending marketing emails to just two domains,

That assumes email was all it was doing. There are a whole lot of other protocols and ports to choose from.

We kept the wemissjerry.org chatroom server in a limo company's datacenter for years. ( It was the IT Director's )
posted by mikelieman at 7:07 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Here’s the Election Day nightmare scenario that should terrify you: First, the tight finish produces an outcome that is contested well beyond Election Day, with Trump (should he lose) claiming the results are rigged. Second, Trump supplements his claim about the rigged outcome by continuing to point to the FBI’s latest discovery of emails as proof of an ongoing cover-up of Hillary Clinton’s criminality.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:07 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

That assumes email was all it was doing. There are a whole lot of other protocols and ports to choose from.

Personalized Teamfortress 2 Server
posted by zarq at 7:10 AM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

Spencer is president of the National Policy Institute, a white nationalist think-tank

the National Policy Institute, a white nationalist think-tank

white nationalist think-tank

ugh I'll take words I never want to see put together for a thousand, Alex.
posted by winna at 7:11 AM on November 1, 2016 [30 favorites]

Here’s the Election Day nightmare scenario that should terrify you:

No, the Election Day nightmare scenario that terrifies me is much simpler than that: The majority of Americans fail to repudiate literal, actual white nationalist fascism and Trump wins.
posted by dersins at 7:12 AM on November 1, 2016 [33 favorites]

For the first time in its 111-year history, Variety is endorsing a presidential candidate — Hillary Clinton. While it is commonplace for mass-market newspapers like The New York Times and The Washington Post to endorse candidates, that’s not the case for trade publications. But this year, the editors-in-chief and our publisher, Michelle Sobrino-Stearns, feel strongly that we should buck tradition and take a public stance on this historic election; for the same reason that The Atlantic endorsed Clinton (marking only the third time since its 1857 founding to back a candidate), we didn’t want to sit on the sidelines and come down on the wrong side of history.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:12 AM on November 1, 2016 [58 favorites]

white nationalist think-tank

ugh I'll take words I never want to see put together for a thousand, Alex.

It makes more sense if you think of it as a tank in the sense of "heavily armored vehicle running on tracks."
posted by Mayor West at 7:14 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Here’s the Election Day nightmare scenario that should terrify you

Just no. What more do you want from me, projectile vomiting? I am terrified enough thanks.
posted by madamjujujive at 7:14 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

Trump is not going to win Florida but it's going to be close which will only continue to fuel my seething hate for this place.

Hey.

Hey, now.

It's not such a bad place. Look on the bright side, it's not like you guys elected Rick Scott as governor, twice.

Oh. Right.

Never mind.
posted by indubitable at 7:16 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

white nationalist think-tank

ugh I'll take words I never want to see put together for a thousand, Alex.

It makes more sense if you think of it as a tank in the sense of "heavily armored vehicle running on tracks."

Millions of dollars, millions of hours of engineering, the most lethal land weapon in history, staffed by four dudes who didn't go to college and need instructions on not shitting inside the vehicle.
posted by Etrigan at 7:17 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Hostility toward women is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support

So there's now studies showing the best predictors of Trump support are:

1) Misogyny
2) Racism
3) Authoritarianism

Great party you've built there, Republicans.
posted by chris24 at 7:17 AM on November 1, 2016 [110 favorites]

"Here’s the Election Day nightmare scenario that should terrify you: ..."

as if we needed more proof that the press is manufacturing a horse race for clicks.
posted by klarck at 7:19 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

white nationalist think-tank

white nationalist dink tank
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:19 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

ugh I'll take words I never want to see put together for a thousand, Alex.

Got another one for you.

Wikipedia: "Spencer has stated that he rejects the description of white supremacist, and describes himself as an identitarian."
posted by zarq at 7:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Great party you've built there, Republicans.

"But we only wanted to reduce the size of the federal government which is one step removed from all of those things!"
posted by Talez at 7:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

> as if we needed more proof that the press is manufacturing a horse race for clicks.

Yeah, the headline of literally the very next story on that page is "INTERNAL POLLING SHOWS LITTLE SHIFT."
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:21 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

I can't wait for the live-action adaptation of this story. With puppets, maybe?
posted by C'est la D.C. at 7:23 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Hostility toward women is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support

So there's now studies showing the best predictors of Trump support are:

1) Misogyny
2) Racism
3) Authoritarianism

Great party you've built there, Republicans.

Oh hey it's a familiar acronym. MRA (Men's Rights Activist)
Funny how that works out so perfectly.
posted by Jalliah at 7:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [102 favorites]

Here's the real election day scenario that should terrify you: Clinton barely ekes out a win, leading to Trump calling for a meeting on live TV. When the meeting starts, he pulls a switch: a trapdoor in the floor! Clinton zooms all the way down to a big dungeon, where there is a big angry dragon, and she has to be SUPER quiet or else it will wake up. Trump says "AT LAST, MY PLAN is FULFILLED!" and peels off his face. This is not a mask he's just peeling off his actual face. It's gross as hell and half of everyone watching starts vomiting. Then the other half sees all that vomit, and, well, THEY start vomiting too. Soon there's vomit everywhere and Trump is screaming a lot (he didn't realize it would be painful to peel off his face). Meanwhile Clinton's still down in Dragon Dungeon... how will she escape? Stay tuned for the next issue of The Washington Post

And the headline is "The Aristocrats."
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 7:25 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

> "For the first time in its 111-year history, Variety is endorsing a presidential candidate ..."

Earlier in the thread, back on October 29th, I noted that the total Clinton endorsements from newspapers, magazines, and periodicals numbered 320, whereas Trump's numbered 7.

Clinton's number has now risen to 395. Her 75 additional endorsements since then include major publications such as Variety and the Detroit Free Press (circulation 355,000).

Trump's endorsements, meanwhile, have risen by 1 to a total of 8. He snagged an endorsement from the Greenville Daily Reflector.

Endorsements for "anybody but Donald Trump" rose by 2 over the same period, to a current total of 18.
posted by kyrademon at 7:25 AM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Trump's endorsements, meanwhile, have risen by 1 to a total of 8. He snagged an endorsement from the Greenville Daily Reflector.

Trump's Mirror in action?
posted by Strange Interlude at 7:28 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Clinton kills the dragon with her bare hands and wears his scales for armor. She then faces down Paul Ryan who piddles himself on the House floor.

Faceless Trump retires to his chambers and never internalizes the fact that he is a losing loser who loses all the things. Fortunately, the rest of the world reminds him of that fact for the rest of his miserable life.
posted by lydhre at 7:28 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Meanwhile Clinton's still down in Dragon Dungeon... how will she escape?

She just needs to get the chalice.
posted by zarq at 7:29 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

My election day nightmare: Trumps wins. Russia releases a really gross sex tape and 'neener neeners' Trump. Trump suddenly doesn't like Russia cause why, oh why did you forsake me Putin. Twitter and media fights Putin until inauguration. Putin baits and baits. Trump loses his mind and threatens war. World relations are thrown into utter confusion. Trump is inaugurated.
posted by Jalliah at 7:31 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

This is likely a dumb question, but if you were trying to be secretive why wouldn't you just use the IP address?

Would an IP address work for email though? Can you use an IP address rather than the domain name in an address (the part after the "@"? I thought you had to point to a domain, and the mail client looked up the mail server to send it to via the MX record.

(There are people here who can answer this off the top of their head, I'm sure...)
posted by Surely This at 7:31 AM on November 1, 2016

Can you use an IP address rather than the domain name in an address (the part after the "@"?

yes
posted by thelonius at 7:33 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

> "Trump wins, gets immediately impeached, Pence is president and that's why the GOP is all willing to stand behind him ..."

Much as I would like to believe this, no.

The ludicrously unqualified ignorant vindictive racist misogynist really is their boy.
posted by kyrademon at 7:39 AM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

{reads tweet}
{quietly kicks draft MetaFilter FPP into the long grass until late November, possibly December}
posted by Wordshore at 7:44 AM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

I posted this over at the election volunteering MeTa but that post is kind of old meme at this point:

If any fellow-canvassers want to give me some tips about some door-knocking patter to use when everyone is all 1000% sick to death of the election, being canvassed (I'm in PA, there are multiple organizations simultaneously canvassing on behalf of the Democrats), and having a billion random strangers want to talk to them about their secret ballot, I am all ears. Because this past weekend, while I did make a few valuable contacts with voters, there was a lot of "ugghhh omg weren't you people just here???" (Answer: probably not, that was probably Planned Parenthood, Clean Water Action, the Black Voter Empowerment Project, or any of the other eight hundred thousand lefty organizations terrified of a Trump presidency.) I'd like to be able to defuse that with some humor, or a little factoid about how GOTV works, or something, but I am not fast enough on my feet to come up with that stuff on the fly. I'm going out again on Saturday, and then again all day Monday and by that point, stick a fork in Pennsylvanians, we are going to be so done.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump wins, gets immediately impeached, Pence is president and that's why the GOP is all willing to stand behind him ...

There's really no need for that level of catastrophizing, unless you find it fun or cathartic I guess. There's absolutely no reality-based reason to think that Trump is going to win. You can worry that the information we have is incomplete and based on assumptions, sure. This is an election where the likely voter screens are probably going to to be kinda off-target and there are weird enthusiasm/shy-voter things possible in both directions. But that's lack of information. There is no data-based, information-based, reality-based reason to think that Trump is ahead now.

Also, neither the Trump campaign nor the GOP show any signs of being strategic enough for a plan like that. They have Trump because they got rolled by their own voters, plain and simple, after setting themselves up for exactly that problem. The ones supporting or half-supporting Trump are doing this because (a) they strongly believe Clinton will win, so (b) they're not making a decision about whether to help Trump win or not. They're only deciding whether, given that Clinton wins, they want to be seen to be with Trump or agin' him. And, being cravenly dependent on the votes of anglos with high racial resentment, that means that they sigh and more-or-less support him.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

God dammit ... all the people who, a month ago, were saying "Trump wins, gets immediately impeached, Pence is president and that's why the GOP is all willing to stand behind him" -- they knew something, didn't they? That's what all this was lining up for. Present Clinton as terrible and Trump as just slightly not-as-terrible, but start lining up evidence of wrongdoing that can explode, coincidentally, right after he's sworn in.

If so, they were banking on the fact that everyone who voted for Trump over Rubio and Cruz and Jeb and god knows who else in that cavalcade of fuckery was actually SECRETLY endorsing an as-yet-unknown Indiana governor at risk of losing his own reelection bid. Which seems... a bit of a stretch, for a bunch of people whose understanding of civic governance can be found entirely in the refrain of "America, Fuck Yeah."

(Remember when the #nevertrump camp wanted to pull some voodoo at the convention to get Cruz in as their candidate despite him getting many fewer votes? And remember when the Trump camp essentially promised to bury the party alive if they tried it? Picture that, except no one cast a vote for Pence.)
posted by Mayor West at 7:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Picture that, except no one cast a vote for Pence.

Like Ford?
posted by Talez at 7:51 AM on November 1, 2016

I early voted for Clinton yesterday in Tennessee. It was weird seeing the ballot. Like, there was Clinton / Kaine and there was Trump / Pence and Johnson and Stein and all the other wackos that get on the ballot in Tennessee, and their names were all the same size. I dunno why but I guess I unconsciously expected her name to be the biggest and it felt strange seeing it on equal footing with the others.

Also I got caught in traffic and barely made it before they closed, which, not that big a deal because early voting but THAT'S WHY HAVING EARLY VOTING IS IMPORTANT!
posted by ghharr at 7:52 AM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Oh and let's be clear, Trump got Pence because Manafort threw himself onto the tracks to stop Trump from picking Christie and every Senator they asked said "fuck no".
posted by Talez at 7:55 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

...while I did make a few valuable contacts with voters, there was a lot of "ugghhh omg weren't you people just here???"

It sounds like your time would be better spent liaising with the other organizations to find some way to minimize the duplicated work.
posted by Coventry at 7:57 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

anybody have a cliffnotes version? or can point me to one?

Just ignore it for a few days to let the smoke clear. There's no reason to think there's any "there" there yet.
posted by Coventry at 8:01 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

white nationalist think-tank

ugh I'll take words I never want to see put together for a thousand, Alex.

It's small consolation when you have to share the planet with these goons, but at least nobody is willing to stand up with these folks who isn't already obvious garbage. Witness the guest list for their Nov 19th event THE FUTURE OF THE ALT RIGHT being held in - so perfect - the Ronald Reagan building in DC.

Guests will include

Peter Brimelow, Editor of VDARE.com and author of the seminal volume on immigration Alien Nation;
Kevin MacDonald, Editor of The Occidental Observer and author of The Culture of Critique;
“Millennial Woes”, British Youtube commentator and writer;
Ramzpaul, American Youtube commentator and comedian;
Richard Spencer, President of The National Policy Institute, Editor of Radix Journal, and the man who coined the term “Alt Right”;
Tila Tequila, television and social media personality, model, and entertainer;
And more. . .

It's free, so don't miss your shot. Unclear on whether there will be time set aside to spray TT with faygo.
posted by phearlez at 8:15 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Tila Tequila, huh? From that Mother Jones article, "There is something about the Asian girls," Spencer said. "They are cute. They are smart. They have a kind of thing going on."

Why am I not surprised?
posted by Slothrup at 8:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

ok i'm finally up, did detox drop yet?
posted by R.F.Simpson at 8:21 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

An FPP was made today about this article, that details the rapid mainstreaming of Europe's far right.

I think it's a well written article that talks about a terrifying trend in Western politics. I didn't want to immediately distract the FPP to talking about America, but I really do think that this is what we'll see at the GOP congressional level, and then presidentially and nation-wide in 2020. If the alt-right can take Bernie style populism with enough caveats to say "...but for whites only," then I think you'll have a bunch of disaffected Democratic voters willing to abandon the mainstream ship for it. Especially if a presumptive Clinton administration doesn't take leftward voices seriously, or if they're mired in Republican obstructionism (I'm not going to even attempt to speculate what would happen after a trump administration).
posted by codacorolla at 8:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [25 favorites]

I love when Sam Wang calls out journalists for their bullshit horse race coverage.

@edatpost
VIRGINIA POLL: Clinton ahead thanks to NoVa counties but lead far from ironclad, ac'd to @postpolls/@ScharSchool - Clinton leads Trump in Virginia in new Washington Post poll; propelled by voter-rich Northern Virginia

@SamWangPhD Retweeted Ed O'Keefe
Clinton's lead in Virginia is 8.0% (n=6 polls, +/- 0.9% one sigma). This is as ironclad as it gets.
posted by chris24 at 8:31 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

If the alt-right can take Bernie style populism with enough caveats to say "...but for whites only," then I think you'll have a bunch of disaffected Democratic voters willing to abandon the mainstream ship for it. Especially if a presumptive Clinton administration doesn't take leftward voices seriously

Kinda hard to square "leftward" with "for whites only" in my book of politics. But, sure, there are some who claim to be left who are open to white is right if it speaks what I wanna hear kind of thinking, the Green party right now has a little of that element it seems. (And, for reasons known only to Stein, tried to encourage more of it with her Deplorables are welcome here plea.)
posted by gusottertrout at 8:32 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

If the alt-right can take Bernie style populism with enough caveats to say "...but for whites only," then I think you'll have a bunch of disaffected Democratic voters willing to abandon the mainstream ship for it.

Kind of a nationalist socialism, then? Interesting idea, I wonder why nobody's tried it before
posted by theodolite at 8:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [61 favorites]

I early voted for Clinton yesterday in Tennessee. It was weird seeing the ballot.

Yeah, I stared at the "Donald J. Trump" on mine for a minute. This actually happened, I told myself. This is real life.
posted by thelonius at 8:36 AM on November 1, 2016 [42 favorites]

I really do think that this is what we'll see at the GOP congressional level, and then presidentially and nation-wide in 2020. If the alt-right can take Bernie style populism with enough caveats to say "...but for whites only," then I think you'll have a bunch of disaffected Democratic voters willing to abandon the mainstream ship for it.

I'd be more afraid of that happening (you can definitely see a lot of it already with the latent Bernie Bros) if there wasn't such a strong element of "government can never do anything positive, period" from the elected Republican party. Even now they're going along with Trump primarily to pass the Ryan budget (and stonewall a liberal Supreme Court), and when Trump made noises about not cutting Social Security after all, that lasted about a day.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:36 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

This election is going to be a real showdown between the tracking polls and traditional polls, though

For those whose JCPL is going up with the ABC/Wash Post tracking poll result and others, this is interesting. A comparison of the Gallup tracking poll vs. Obama for America internal polling from 2012. TL;DR, most of the swings are bullshit.

@PatrickRuffini
What real movement looks like in a Presidential campaign vs. tracking polls.
[chart]
posted by chris24 at 8:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Kinda hard to square "leftward" with "for whites only" in my book of politics

I think this is actually very easy to picture, actually.
posted by zutalors! at 8:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

It genuinely amazes me that anyone at this late date can look at Mitch McConnell’s conference and assume that they will have to confirm a nominee because that’s just the way things have always been done. They don’t, and they almost certainly won’t. Both elected officials and public intellectuals are laying the groundwork. [...] The substantive stakes of are very large, McConnell et al. are likely to calculate that the political costs of further obstruction are negligible — and the brutal truth is that they’re probably right.

Ted Cruz’s dangerous and offensive new threat

So when McCain and Cruz suggest that a President Hillary Clinton may be unfit to appoint anyone to the Supreme Court — or, for that matter, when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ordered a similar blockade on anyone named to fill the current vacancy by President Obama — they are implicitly making a very offensive comparison. There is precedent for a Congress that simply refused to allow a president to place new justices on the Supreme Court. This extraordinary tactic was used to keep a white supremacist president from effectively undoing the new birth of freedom thousands of Americans paid for in blood.

And now, Republicans are deploying that very same tactic, because they don’t want a moderate liberal like Merrick Garland to replace the arch-conservative Scalia.

'We are at risk of losing legitimacy as a nation' because of Republican Supreme Court blockade plans

They're serious about this, and they're lining up their quasi-legal arguments to justify doing it. Not that they need any valid arguments to justify their blockades—everything they've come up with for blocking Merrick Garland, President Obama's current nominee, have been totally specious.

This, says Paul Painter, a professor of law at the University of Minnesota and former White House counsel in the George. W. Bush administration, is "a clear abdication by the senator of his responsibility to carry out in good faith the advice and consent function set forth in the Constitution." He adds "if high-ranking leaders in the Republican Party, my own party, conduct themselves in this fashion, our party will soon be irrelevant in the Senate as everywhere else on the political landscape. The voters simply will not put up with it." But of course it's not just the GOP that's endangered here. It's actually our system of government. That's a point made by Charles Gardner Geyh, a professor of law at Indiana University. "We are at risk of losing legitimacy as a nation in terms of being able to govern effectively."

posted by tonycpsu at 8:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

I love when Sam Wang calls out journalists for their bullshit horse race coverage.

When looking at Wang's 97-99% Clinton victory prediction and thinking it's a "left-leaning" analysis, it's important to note that Dr. Wang predicted 49 of 50 states correctly in 2008 and 50 of 50 in 2012. He is extremely data-driven in his analysis.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [24 favorites]

I think the public polls are mostly useless at this point. They only give a broad sense of the race and the fluxuations are just going to be noise. They might set a benchmark for the candidates turnout operations to work against. I think the candidates are working with their own datasets which tell them how they are doing every day in terms of getting likely voters to the polls. They know the districts they are over performing in and where they are behind. At least team Clinton does. We don't know what is going on, if anything in the Trump campaign. Are they going to Michigan based on data or not. I assume not and that their failure to pay their pollster and setup field offices has left them blind. On the other hand maybe they are that stealthy.
posted by humanfont at 8:39 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Kinda hard to square "leftward" with "for whites only" in my book of politics.

Well, I agree. Any white-supremacist ideology definitely doesn't fit with my definitions of leftist politics either. The article goes into detail about how these new alt-right parties have mainstreamed largely by picking and choosing their economic, social, and foreign policies to become an amalgam of socialist economic and liberal social policies (up to a point - mostly accommodating gay and lesbian voters with a live and let live approach) mixed with far right isolationism and nationalism. The current GOP's evangelical bent, and the vastly different racial politics of America would probably make our version look a little different, but 4 years and a mid-term election is a lot of time to define a party. I honestly think that as much as we all talk about wanting a legitimate third party, we're really not going to like the form that it takes.
posted by codacorolla at 8:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

There has been some discussion of horseshoe theory in these threads and I do find it concerning. Trump's candidacy is evidence that the traditional ideals of a tribe can be completely abandoned without risk. The party of free trade has become anti-trade while lefties Sanders and Warren also run around repudiating globalism. I think it is easier to get a millenial who felt the Bern to embrace Donald Trump if his primary motivation was anger and not ideology. Bernie himself would be horrified by just about any kind of -ism, but the angry devotee just wanted to blow up the beltway using a Bernie shaped bomb.
posted by xyzzy at 8:41 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

On the other hand maybe they are that stealthy.

A multi-decade history of mistrusting expertise and fact-driven knowledge tells me otherwise. The reason he's in Michigan is because the campaign is absurd.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:41 AM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

On the other hand maybe they are that stealthy.

I come to these threads when I need a good laugh. Thanks!
posted by meinvt at 8:54 AM on November 1, 2016

It occurred to me this morning that if Clinton wins (TTTSC), 2017 will mark the first time in 160 years that one Democratic president succeeded another without the first one dying: in 1857, Franklin Pierce gave way (unhappily) to James Buchanan. Hunh.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:54 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Who wants to play the sensational national detective game, Fahrenthold?

twitter: 1/With one week left before the election, there are 6 mysteries about @realDonaldTrump's giving to charity I haven't been able to solve...

2/But, knowing you folks, we may have them all solved by the end of lunch. Here goes...

posted by sallybrown at 8:55 AM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

I remember when some old friends moaned on Facebook, "This is why we can't have nice things" when Black Lives Matter supporters pressed Bernie Sanders to take a stand on police violence.

The comments even HERE (on one of ye olde election threads) were shocking to me.
posted by sallybrown at 8:58 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

At one time, I was worried about some "horseshoe effect" thing where the alt-right picks up a significant number of brocialist types, but somewhere along the line in one of these threads I saw some numbers that showed that an overwhelming majority of Bernie supporters were rallying behind Hillary. Of those who are going third-party, write-in, or staying home, I'm not sure how many would be reachable with this kind of overtly bigoted "identitarian" schtick, but the part of me that still wants to be able to walk around outside and interact with other humans wants to assume it's a very small percentage that won't have any material impact on public policy.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:02 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

This election has definitely highlighted a schism between the social justice left and the economic justice left. If the only tool you have is economic anxiety, everything looks like an economic problem and it's just a short hop, skip and jump from there to just flat out denying that racism exists or is a thing. If the alt-right wants to peel off lefties, that's the thin end of the wedge right there.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:03 AM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

> From that Mother Jones article, "There is something about the Asian girls," Spencer said. "They are cute. They are smart. They have a kind of thing going on."

Why am I not surprised?

The most openly racist white guy I've ever known personally made a conspicuously large exception for asian girls for some strange reason.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:08 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

I asked CNN this but haven’t yet gotten a response: Does anyone know if they plan on using their Trump surrogates (Corey Lewandowski, Jeffrey Lord, etc.) as panelists during their election night coverage? I don’t mind if they talk to people with a wide variety of viewpoints, and in fact I expect them to. But if I see any of these Bozos (no offense to Bozo) as CNN commentators I am switching the channel for the evening.
posted by DanSachs at 9:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

> "@ScottWalker: If you like the past 8 years, vote @HillaryClinton."

Obama's approval rating is nice and high right now. So good luck with that.
posted by kyrademon at 9:13 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Interestingly, the lefties I know here in Mississippi mostly seem to be what I think of when I think of "liberals" rather than what I'm hearing from some of you guys. Perhaps it's because the lives of Black and White folks are more intertwined here? White liberals here actually SEE Black people on a daily basis, you know, shopping, jogging, eating out, living their lives? My close friends and I discuss our biases on a regular basis, and don't deny that we have them. As much as I'd like to say I have chosen spectacularly good friends, I also hope that liberals in general here are inoculated from the attitude I am alarmingly hearing about in these comments.
posted by thebrokedown at 9:13 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

But if I see any of these Bozos (no offense to Bozo) as CNN commentators I am switching the channel for the evening.

funny, for me watching the surrogates struggle to explain their failure, loss, and repudiation will be one of the highlights of election night
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:16 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

I don't know why I threw "jogging" into my list there. That strikes even me as a weird thing to say. My brain is shot.
posted by thebrokedown at 9:16 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

@GoodwinMJ:
Trump talking Michigan. At this point in cycle in 2012 Obama's RCP average was +4.0 in Michigan (he won +9.5). Clinton is currently on +7.7
posted by chris24 at 9:17 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

the attitude I am alarmingly hearing about in these comments

can you define this attitude? I'd like to respond but don't want to misconstrue.
posted by zutalors! at 9:18 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

There are a lot of white people who are economically left in one way or another and see the concerns of people of color as being "niche," or "boutique," or whatever other bullshit term that in the end boils down to "fuck these people, I want what's mine." Whether or not you think this should disqualify them from claiming the label of "liberal" is pretty goddamned irrelevant.

Yeah, those people exist, no question, but I disagree about the label since it's been pretty clear from all the protests over the years that naming things does matter, so anyone who stands up for racism under the guise of being "liberal" should be named for what they are, racist, and not given cover for some allegedly otherwise liberal thinking. It's not about identifying "true" liberals, whatever that would be, as it is about naming hate for what it is when it shows itself.
posted by gusottertrout at 9:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

as if we needed more proof that the press is manufacturing a horse race for clicks

The media certainly has angrybear by the balls. With every uptick in Trumps polls I'm becoming more like the kid from the Babadook: DONT LET IN DONT LET IT IN DONT LET IN
posted by angrybear at 9:21 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

I also hope that liberals in general here are inoculated from the attitude I am alarmingly hearing about in these comments.

I think people are just saying it's possible to be leftist with regard to income inequality without much caring about racism or sexism (and also the converse), and that some people in these threads have encountered people who are.

It's great that that doesn't describe you or the people you know, but ... that doesn't mean those people don't exist.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 9:22 AM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

@GoodwinMJ:
Trump talking Michigan. At this point in cycle in 2012 Obama's RCP average was +4.0 in Michigan (he won +9.5). Clinton is currently on +7.7

I read that as taking and nearly jumped out of the window.
Fortunately we are on the ground floor, but there's still a prickly bush out there.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 9:22 AM on November 1, 2016 [32 favorites]

_{I'm positive someone's broken down the difference between "left" and "liberal" in these and other threads before.}
posted by aspersioncast at 9:23 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Fred Christ Trump, I finally got to the end of the thread. I Tehhunded myself. Anyhoo:

"PUTIN RUSSIA" has never actually been accused by any US official beyond Hillary Clinton at the 3rd debate

So this was so wrong I had to dig it up and carry it 600 comments:

Yes, 17 intelligence agencies really did say Russia was behind hacking

But Clinton is correct. On Oct. 7, the Department of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a joint statement on behalf of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The USIC is made up of 16 agencies, in addition to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Members of the IC

Air Force Intelligence
Army Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
Coast Guard Intelligence
Defense Intelligence Agency
Department of Energy
Department of Homeland Security
Department of State
Department of the Treasury
Drug Enforcement Administration
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Marine Corps Intelligence
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
National Reconnaissance Office
National Security Agency
Navy Intelligence

OK?!?

In the process I finally figured out TTTSC, for "Turnaround Three Times, Spit, Curse" because of the whatever high atop the thing. Is that in the wiki? Can someone link the wiki again? Interweb Search failx0red on that one
posted by petebest at 9:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [56 favorites]

DONALD J. TRUMP CAMPAIGN GOES ON OFFENSE, EXPANDS TV FOOTPRINT INTO MICHIGAN & NEW MEXICO

NEW YORK, NY - Today the Donald J. Trump for President campaign added Michigan and New Mexico to its aggressive battleground state media buy in an open acknowledgment that the campaign is surging in traditionally blue states as well as traditional battleground states. This expansion occurs as Florida and Ohio are decisively turning towards Mr. Trump, and the campaign is seeing strong growth in North Carolina as well.

What?!? Michigan he's down by five points. New Mexico he's down by eight! What?!?
posted by Talez at 9:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

TPM: BUSTED? Dems Accuse RNC Of Lying About Poll Watchers In Nevada:

The new evidence was filed in an ongoing legal case against the RNC that concerns allegations that the RNC has violated a federal consent decree dating back to the 1980s that limits its participation in so-called "ballot security" activities at election sites. Democrats are seeking to have the restrictions on the RNC's Election Day activities extended for another eight years.

A letter filed by Angelo Genova, a lawyer representing the Democratic National Committee in the case, said that the Democrats had evidence that the RNC "has and continues to engage in one or more ballot security initiatives utilizing poll watchers in Nevada," which he described as "contrary to the sworn declarations submitted earlier today, and the clear statements of its counsel."

The evidence filed by the Democrats Monday includes affidavits from three different Democratic poll observers who said they met fellow observers claiming to have been sent by the RNC to monitor early voting sites in Nevada. One affidavit includes a screen shot of a text message the alleged GOP poll observer sent the Democratic observer.

posted by palindromic at 9:26 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

He snagged an endorsement from the Greenville Daily Reflector.

Sigh. My sorta-hometown newspaper. Whose motto is "Truth In Preference To Fiction." Like, "Yeah, Truth would be nice but we'll run with made-up bullshit if we have a deadline."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:27 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

ThinkProgress: We may be living in the final days of the Supreme Court of the United States
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:28 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

From that link a few comments up (website of Comrade Trumpski):

The Trump campaign’s ad placement strategy is being backed by a $25 million buy for the final seven days of the campaign in the following states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Mmmmm. Spending 25 million dollars. Question is, when the invoices for those $25 million roll in, will they be paid?
posted by Wordshore at 9:29 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm anxious as can be about the tightening polls but my reason tells me that Dr. Sam at Princeton is right -- HRC will win this. What is very, very concerning at this point is the reduction in likelihood the D's will take the Senate or make a significant dent in the R House majority.

I'm baffled at the media caution about Trump's clear ties to Russia this week. To harp on and on about emails (when we are unlikely to get any real info before November 8, and the chances seem overwhelmingly high that there is nothing new there) without any attention to the clear evidence of puppet strings is at best imbalanced. And that imbalance is damaging down ticket races.
posted by bearwife at 9:29 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

I'm positive that the labels "left" and "liberal" (as well as "right" and "conservative") are pretty meaningless at this point. One of the things I've seen a lot of on the right is to used the term "liberal" in it's 19th century British sense and then try to shackle the left to it. As if doing battle with a straw man you bought at a farm auction is different from doing battle with one you made yourself is "more authentic". Something something rant rant hipsters.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 9:29 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

You guys. I wept. I'm not afraid to admit it. I made new millennial friends who were just as excited as I was.

Here's a panoramic view.

Sorry, skipped to the bottom/derailing a bit but -- what an excellent and amazing pic!!! Cooker girl, thank you for sharing!
posted by alleycat01 at 9:30 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

@ScottWalker: If you like the past 8 years, vote @HillaryClinton.

I saw this tweet this morning, and couldn't figure out what the self-own was. I just thought, "oh, he's endorsing Hillary, that's good and sensible of him."
posted by Metroid Baby at 9:31 AM on November 1, 2016 [38 favorites]

If the alt-right can take Bernie style populism with enough caveats to say "...but for whites only," then I think you'll have a bunch of disaffected Democratic voters willing to abandon the mainstream ship for it.

To some degree, Reagan did that already with the T-bone/Cadillac bullshit. (To some degree, "populism for whites only" has been part of the American political narrative for a long time, with the main change being who gets counted as white.) As Clay Shirky said back in July, the core Trump pitch is for a racist welfare state.

But populist "mountain Democrats" of Appalachia are a case in point. They didn't campaign on a racist or segregationist or discriminatory platform because there simply weren't (still aren't) many African-Americans living in the mountains, especially outside of its cities. There was just a giant lacuna there in saying "we need politicians who serve our local needs" and that morphed into the modern GOP.

I just don't think the alt-right posturing to the left has purchase beyond, well, people who don't get out much.
posted by holgate at 9:34 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Can someone link the wiki again?

WORDSHORE!

Link #NextPost
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Something something rant rant hipsters.

In my dusky youth, being [whisper] liberal [/whisper] was basically the same as admitting you were an anti-American pinko commie who ate babies and had a car vanity plate reading "5TH CLMN". I mark it as progress that the term has now become so mainstream that someone had to dust off "leftist" to make sure everyone knows they're the real pinko commie around here, thank you very much!
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:36 AM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

So there's now studies showing the best predictors of Trump support are:

1) Misogyny
2) Racism
3) Authoritarianism

Great party you've built there, Republicans.

The Party of Lincoln has become the Party of George Lincoln Rockwell.
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:36 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Gary ‏@masterwilliams
When @BarackObama sees your nephew dressed as Prince & starts singing Purple Rain! Unreal! Thank you @POTUS & @MichelleObama!
posted by Talez at 9:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [49 favorites]

So this guy had a good long think and decided to give us his best excuse. ‘Jew-S-A’ Chanter From Trump Rally: I Was Just Using A Spanish Accent!

The Donald Trump supporter who made headlines for screaming “Jew-S-A” at a Arizona campaign rally on Saturday says he was just trying to show solidarity with Latinos.

George Lindell, a painter for hire and ardent opponent of Hillary Clinton’s, told the Arizona Republic in a Monday interview that he saw a group of Latino attendees, including children, at the Phoenix rally.

According to Lindell, the children cut their own cheers of "USA" short because they were embarrassed that the chant came out “Joo-S-A.”

"They felt they wouldn't fit in because of their accent," he told the Republic.

To boost their morale, Lindell said, he struck up the cheer “Jew-S-A,” which luckily happened to be the way he has pronounced the country's initials since his childhood in the Latino-heavy Maryvale neighborhood of Phoenix.

“That’s always the way I’ve said it: Jew-S-A,” he told the Republic. “I like the way it sounds. I like Jew-S-A because it has more flair.”

Before you rush out to nominate him for some kind of Latino Solidarity award (which they presumably don't hand out for anti-Semitic chants/mocking accents anyway):

Asked to clarify one comment he made under his breath, however, Lindell told the Republic he said, “The Jews run the country anyway.”

This was just his was of “horsing around,” he added.

Dude. You're just making it worse. Shut up. Forever.
posted by zachlipton at 9:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

Meanwhile Clinton's still down in Dragon Dungeon... how will she escape?

She'll pick up a skull and throw it at a control panel, dropping a gate on the dragon's head and crushing it. Meanwhile in the throne room, Tim Kaine in a golden bikini sidles behind the God Emperor's dais...
posted by The Tensor at 9:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

PSA: The YMCA is offering free child care in participating locations on Nov. 8 so parents can vote. Check your local Y for participation. Carry on.
posted by xyzzy at 9:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [37 favorites]

I'm baffled at the media caution about Trump's clear ties to Russia this week. To harp on and on about emails

Because we know what email is but the intricacies of network protocols are incomprehensible to reporters and editors. If anyone is adept at explaining it well, they're making a lot more than the Midmarket Times is paying.
posted by petebest at 9:38 AM on November 1, 2016

Question is, when the invoices for those $25 million roll in, will they be paid?

Isn't Adelson giving $25M? I thought Trump's campaign money only went to Trump-owned businesses.

Trump's claim his campaign would be "self-financed" is just about the most clever bold-faced statement he's made yet.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:39 AM on November 1, 2016

Oh, sure, pocketfullofrye. I totally agree. I think my main point though, was that anecdotally, here in one of the most conservative areas, my friends, at least, view racism as a core liberal concern along with economic issues. I then posited perhaps it's because Blacks and Whites around me may shop in the same spaces, and eat in the same restaurants and, apparently, jog in large happy groups together (wut). "Black people" to me (for I am White, if you hadn't guessed) aren't as much of an abstraction as they might be to people in other areas of the country that skew far more White though also more liberal.
posted by thebrokedown at 9:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Because we know what email is

The vast majority of people really, really don't, which the continued harping on this story shows. The inability of anyone to adequately explain or comprehend a scandal has never stopped the media.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Mitt Romney is so boring he went as Mitt Romney for Halloween. [real]
posted by zachlipton at 9:41 AM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Mitt Romney is so boring he went as Mitt Romney for Halloween. [real]

Plot twist: Romney took the picture. That was three of his kids on each other's shoulder in a blue shirt a'la Vincent Adultman.
posted by Talez at 9:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

Man, don't get Bizarro Romney started on the 53 percent.
posted by box at 9:44 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

that's actually pretty funny.
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:45 AM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

People are saying Donald Trump can't read
posted by numaner at 9:45 AM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

Y Kant Donny Read

(this has been a super deep cut for Tori Amos fans I guess)
posted by Sara C. at 9:47 AM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

George Lindell, a painter for hire and ardent opponent of Hillary Clinton’s, told the Arizona Republic in a Monday interview that he saw a group of Latino attendees, including children, at the Phoenix rally. According to Lindell, the children cut their own cheers of "USA" short because they were embarrassed that the chant came out “Joo-S-A.”

Maybe 2016 is actually still on-script, and life is just imitating Achewood.

¡Sciencia--Que Bueno!
posted by Mayor West at 9:47 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Y Cant Donny Read

(this has been a super deep cut for Tori Amos fans I guess)

It was Y Kant Tori Read, poser.
posted by Etrigan at 9:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the Republican candidate for governor, Chris Sununu, is claiming that there's a massive plan to bus up democratic voters from MA to take advantage of our same-day registration laws.

This is in a state, mind you, that has that law so we could get around Motor Voter (you can only register at your town clerk's office), has no early voting and fairly strict absentee rules, and where, to the frustration to me as a volunteer, volunteers for the party cannot be involved in the voter registration process. (Beyond saying, hey, you should go register at the town clerk!) On Saturday, my husband and I were unable to give an absentee ballot application to give to a woman to give to her sick mother in the hospital because of that rule.
posted by damayanti at 9:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

From the Thinkprogress link: Given this wide gulf between Democrats and Republicans regarding the Court’s legitimate role, it’s time for a thought experiment. Imagine that Hillary Clinton wins the White House, but Republicans retain the Senate and keep her from appointing a justice for her entire presidency. Over the course of her four or eight years in office, three more vacancies open up as the Court’s most elderly members eventually succumb to mortality. Then imagine that a Republican wins the White House in 2020 or 2024, and that this Republican swiftly fills those four vacant seats. ...

So here’s the hypothetical: Let’s say Washington’s governor signs a $15 minimum wage law in 2023. Two years later, President Mike Pence fills the four vacancies on the Supreme Court, and the newly constituted bench strikes down California’s law in a 5–4 decision. If you are the governor, and you’ve just watched one of your signature pieces of legislation wiped away by a rigged bench applying an extraordinarily dubious legal theory, do you obey that decision, or do you declare that the state of Washington no longer recognizes the legitimate authority of the Supreme Court of the United States?
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

jackbishop: I'm still feeling good about the election turning out right, in spite of polls and predictors and surprises and the like, for two reasons:

(1) Trump still has almost no viable paths to victory. Let's go ahead and assume he takes every state where Republican support was wobbly (AZ and UT) and takes all the authentic battlegrounds (IA, OH, FL) and manages to pick off the places where Democrats had a tenuous lead (NV, NC). He still doesn't win, not without getting a state where Clinton's polls are pretty strong. Unless polling is extraordinarily inaccurate, it's hard to see him winning.

Oh God someone show me this on a map to calm my racing pulse.
posted by chonus at 9:50 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

This bizarro postulating of the future is annoying and not helpful.
posted by agregoli at 9:50 AM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

Rick Hasen and TPM have a good one: "Democrats in DNC v. RNC Allege RNC Lied About Engaging in Poll Watching Activities in Nevada":

The new evidence was filed in an ongoing legal case against the RNC that concerns allegations that the RNC has violated a federal consent decree dating back to the 1980s that limits its participation in so-called "ballot security" activities at election sites. Democrats are seeking to have the restrictions on the RNC's Election Day activities extended for another eight years.

A letter filed by Angelo Genova, a lawyer representing the Democratic National Committee in the case, said that the Democrats had evidence that the RNC "has and continues to engage in one or more ballot security initiatives utilizing poll watchers in Nevada," which he described as "contrary to the sworn declarations submitted earlier today, and the clear statements of its counsel."

The evidence filed by the Democrats Monday includes affidavits from three different Democratic poll observers who said they met fellow observers claiming to have been sent by the RNC to monitor early voting sites in Nevada. One affidavit includes a screen shot of a text message the alleged GOP poll observer sent the Democratic observer.

If the RNC lied to the court about its activities, that would certainly be helpful in getting the consent decree extended.
posted by zachlipton at 9:50 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Mitt Romney is so boring he went as Mitt Romney for Halloween. [real]

I was hoping for a craftier costume. Possibly a Flintstone-style car with an occupied dog crate attached to the roof.
posted by xyzzy at 9:50 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

People are saying Donald Trump can't read

I'm pretty sure he can read but he's made it rather clear in various interviews (back when he used to give interviews occasionally) that he doesn't read, more than maybe a headline and a lede from some deplorable online right-wing rumor mill Facebook sites. (I think it's a fair guess to say this is because he doesn't actually have the attention span to focus on a sustained argument for more than a few sentences.)

So functionally, he is illiterate, just as I am functionally not a runner since I don't run* although I do have two legs and could in theory do so.

Add it to the long list of disqualifying things. I mean, my God. A president who won't read more than a paragraph at a time.

*I am sometimes willing to sprint up to 1/2 block to catch a bus
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:53 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Oh God someone show me this on a map to calm my racing pulse.

You can do this yourself on 270towin or any similar site. Spoiler alert: Clinton wins with 278 EVs.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:54 AM on November 1, 2016

The vast majority of people really, really don't [know what email is]

Let me clarify: y'know those local ABC affiliate evening news CorruptionBuster™ reports where John Campbell ambushes the owner of RacistMart about his hiring practices?

Well the graphics department will make an animation showing squares of text flying in slowly, covering each other slightly ad papers on a messy desk. Over which the reporter intones, "Repeated emails to the company were met with strong denials including, 'we never said that', where the graphic representation of the particular passage in email gets highlighted as if by a highlighter pen.

That's how 'people know about email' even though yes they can't explain what a client or a forward or an IMAP server setting might be.

That's why Hillary's emails stick but Trump's ties to Russia brush away harmlessly; no common graphics on the nightly news. (Well it's one reason.)
posted by petebest at 9:55 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

It was Y Kant Tori Read, poser.

No poser, no poser. You're the poser! You're the poser!
posted by zutalors! at 9:56 AM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

More seriously reacting to that video.... I'm not sure if I just hate Trump an awful lot and am not inclined to by sympathetic toward him or imagine a context for things, but SNL's Pete Davidson saying that Trump basically can't/won't read is actually kind of a smoking gun for the idea that Samantha Bee is actually right and this isn't a joke at all.
posted by Sara C. at 9:57 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

If you're interested in some local level hilarity: Ashley Carter, a candidate for DC School Board who has been hiding her affiliation with a Koch-funded anti-feminist think tank, was caught posting on a parents' forum pretending to be a Carter supporter and taking shots at her opponent's appearance...while logged in under her own name (forum post, WCP recap).

h/t bulgaroktonos!
posted by everybody had matching towels at 10:00 AM on November 1, 2016 [29 favorites]

> "What real movement looks like in a Presidential campaign vs. tracking polls."

To be fair, though, I believe that Gallup in particular, which is the tracking poll used as an example, stopped doing presidential election polls entirely because they acknowledged they were really, really bad at is.
posted by kyrademon at 10:01 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Dared look at this thread for the first time today, relieved not to see obvious signs of panic, can't risk looking at news headlines but decided to be bold and look at 538, saw Hillary's estimate down to 73%, now feeling anxious again...
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:01 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Here’s how much of your life has been wasted with this presidential election.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:02 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

decided to be bold and look at 538, saw Hillary's estimate down to 73%,

Oh Jesus oh fuck oh fuck oh Jesus
posted by chonus at 10:03 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

Carter, who wouldn't name the purported rogue poster, says the person has been kicked off her campaign for the "incredibly inappropriate" post

Looks like Meredith! has a new gig.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:05 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

> "Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the Republican candidate for governor, Chris Sununu, is claiming that there's a massive plan to bus up democratic voters from MA to take advantage of our same-day registration laws."

Most recent polls are showing this cretin narrowly losing, albeit with a high number of undecideds. So, fingers crossed ...
posted by kyrademon at 10:05 AM on November 1, 2016

(To be fair I remembered it was with a K like 20 seconds after hitting "submit", and then edited it. This thread moves too fast for my morning brain!)
posted by Sara C. at 10:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

ugh I can't wait till next Wednesday when I hope we can safely welcome our Pantsuit Overlord/Lady and Blue Senate.
posted by zutalors! at 10:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

Oh God someone show me this on a map to calm my racing pulse.

Here's a 272-265 map where you can identify a firewall of Colorado (C+4), NH (C+5) and Wisconsin (C+6) based on where the candidates and surrogates are using their time. (538 considers PA and MI more competitive than WI, but PA has been the GOP's white whale for a long time and the only Clinton campaign event scheduled for MI so far this week is Bernie in Traverse City.)

the Republican candidate for governor, Chris Sununu

Does every male in the Sununu family get to run for office in NH? Is that in the state constitution somewhere?
posted by holgate at 10:10 AM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

About the new Euro right and the American alt-right:
They have everything in common and they get together and share news and "knowledge". That is how I get American haters on my FB feed. And mainly I get it from far left former colleagues and friends of friends. But there is one important difference between Europe and the US: demographics. Europe is literally dying out, and old white people are a disproportionately large part of the electorate.

This has a lot of consequences.
First of all: there are a lot more old white people who vote.
Since there is a (ill-founded) sense that immigration is new to Europe, the older electorate's fears, misunderstandings and blatant racism and sexism have more ground, even among some of the younger voters.
Since they are convinced they can't be racist, because we didn't have (many) slaves and they love jazz, the positions of the euro-right are much more acceptable on the left in Europe than in the US. (This is not a joke, and not funny).

Actually, I should stop the listing now (or comment it on that other post), because my purpose here is to take down the American panic level about the future of the alt-right a bit: you are younger, more diverse and more prosperous than we are. The alt-right are nasty, but they are losing, and always were. You can relax. But GOTV.
posted by mumimor at 10:12 AM on November 1, 2016 [21 favorites]

Can someone link the wiki again?

Here you go, for all your TTTCS needs.
posted by zachlipton at 10:13 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Can someone link the wiki again?

WORDSHORE!

Okay, noted, fine, right. Le sigh.

Additional places on MetaFilter for information and commenting not mentioned in this FPP:

- The election wiki, for explanations of various in-jokes and strange references on here.
- Election night themed party food
- This election has revealed that I do not know as much as I think!
- Should I wait until after the election to officially change my name?
- What is working at a polling place on election day actually like?
- Cake.
posted by Wordshore at 10:14 AM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

final Daily Reflector derail: it runs a passive-aggressive write-in column called "Bless Your Heart."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:15 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

when we finally get that mod drink fund together they should share it with Wordshore.
posted by zutalors! at 10:17 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

"Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, the Republican candidate for governor, Chris Sununu, is claiming that there's a massive plan to bus up democratic voters from MA to take advantage of our same-day registration laws."

Well hello there Mr. Sununu, thank you for crawling out from beneath your rock to momentarily bask in the sun, thus helping me identify another candidate to direct all available money to crushing into a fine powder.

Meanwhile, I want this Lawyers, Guns, and Money article to be required reading in high school civics class.

Let’s think about this logically (not possible for the GOP, I know, but bear with me). If I were running such a scheme what would I have to do to make an effective dent in the results? As a starting point, a lot of Colorado wingnuts think that Obama won there in 2012 by cheating. He won by 138k votes, so let’s use 140k votes as a starting point. So let’s say I have a bus full of black voters – say 66 people (common capacity limit on school buses). So if every bus is filled to near capacity that’s about 2200 bus-visits to the polling stations. How many polling stations can a given bus hit in a day? Well, your typical precinct has 2-3 people checking voters in and each one processes about 2 per minute, so that’s over 30 minutes just to check in (of course there will be other voters, too), plus time to drive between precincts. Seriously, if you are counting on more than 10 precincts per bus per day you’re going to be disappointed. So that’s 220 buses chartered for the day, and a total of about 14k fraudulent voters.

Holy freaking crap. The logistical problems of arranging that many fraudulent voters, ALL of whom are risking felony sentences and NONE of whom have ever talked about it to anyone. Now plan to arrange for 140k fake registrations using the matching photos for each person and arrange it so that the manager of each bus makes sure that every voter gets the exact fake ID for each precinct. And NO MISTAKES – remember no one has ever been caught doing this because Democrats, who are inept in government, are utter geniuses when it comes to vote fraud. So that means there NEVER can be a situation where a fake voter encounters a registrar who says “Hey, I live on that street, I’ve never seen you” or similar.

By the way, the absolutely easiest logistical part of this scheme is arranging for photo ID. Assuming you have that many people willing to commit felonies for whatever you are paying them and have arranged everything else in detail, getting fake photo IDs for them is simple and routine. So photo ID laws do absolutely jack shit to stop massive vote fraud – but of course that wasn’t their real intention, was it?

posted by Mayor West at 10:18 AM on November 1, 2016 [51 favorites]

I mean, my God. A president who won't read more than a paragraph at a time.

Well, yeah. The most damning part of The Atlantic's endorsement of Clinton was the sentence: He appears not to read. They know their audience.
posted by suelac at 10:18 AM on November 1, 2016 [30 favorites]

various Sununus and quasiSununus

I believe the plural is Sunununu.
posted by Etrigan at 10:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [26 favorites]

decided to be bold and look at 538, saw Hillary's estimate down to 73%

Oh Jesus oh fuck oh fuck oh Jesus

MeFi should have a special red flashing Post Comment button for these types of kneejerk panic responses that will post the comment to the thread, but so that only the commenter themselves can see it. This would allow the member to feel the soothing catharsis of screaming into the void without actually squittering their waking night terrors all over the thread.
posted by Atom Eyes at 10:20 AM on November 1, 2016 [41 favorites]

What the hell. Even the FBI historians have gone mad.
posted by acidic at 10:21 AM on November 1, 2016 [21 favorites]

“That’s always the way I’ve said it: Jew-S-A,” he told the Republic. “I like the way it sounds. I like Jew-S-A because it has more flair.”

Asked to clarify one comment he made under his breath, however, Lindell told the Republic he said, “The Jews run the country anyway.”

If only.
posted by zarq at 10:21 AM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

chris24: Hostility toward women is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support

So there's now studies showing the best predictors of Trump support are:

1) Misogyny
2) Racism
3) Authoritarianism

Great party you've built there, Republicans.

Would you say these are deplorable points of view to have?
posted by filthy light thief at 10:22 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Here’s how much of your life has been wasted with this presidential election.

3.5% of my life. And with that I'm officially done until next Tues evening. See you all on the other side.
posted by photoslob at 10:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

There are steps the Supreme Court can take to defend itself, if they're willing, especially if they have an executive branch on their side willing to get down and dirty in the trenches for it.

However, an all-out war between the Supreme Court and Congress would get REALLY ugly REALLY fast.
posted by kyrademon at 10:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

can you define this attitude?

Joggers, pro-jogging partisans, joggacious citizens, general joglery
posted by Greg Nog at 9:21 AM on November 1 [10 favorites]

Uhh . . . the term we prefer to describe us is "Joggalos".
posted by Kibbutz at 10:24 AM on November 1, 2016 [31 favorites]

MeFi should have a special red flashing Post Comment button for these types of kneejerk panic responses that will post the comment to the thread, but so that only the commenter themselves can see it.

Seconded. And failing that, may I gently suggest to those who are having Chicken Little-style freakouts multiple times a day that perhaps there's something else you can do with that energy other than continuously letting the rest of us know about them? If you can, volunteer. If you can't, maybe step away from the internet for a while, grab a xanax or whatever, and do something else. Anything else. I don't know what purpose you think posting these content-free meltdowns here serves, but you're not really helping.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:26 AM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

Guys, guys, relax! According to 538, Trump has about the same chance of winning as the Cubs have of winning the World Series.

You and I both know we'll never have to worry about that.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:28 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

I prefer Facebook set to my fiance only for "shouting into the void" chicken little freakouts.

Directly addressing the cat also helps.
posted by Sara C. at 10:28 AM on November 1, 2016

What the hell. Even the FBI historians have gone mad.

What? The FBI dropped Marc Rich scandal docs 7 days before an election? Have they made some kind of pact with Trump about dividing up the spoils of the fascist New America? You've got the votes, and we've got the braun, together we can rule with impunity? WHAT IS GOING ON?
posted by dis_integration at 10:29 AM on November 1, 2016 [25 favorites]

What the hell. Even the FBI historians have gone mad.

Oh boy! Just when you thought Marc Rich was dead and buried six feet under his ghost is back to give a hand to an authoritarian crypto-fascist wannabe demagogue.
posted by Talez at 10:30 AM on November 1, 2016

You and I both know we'll never have to worry about that.

As a Brit, Leicester won the Premier League. The Cubs winning is much more likely.
posted by Francis at 10:31 AM on November 1, 2016

What the hell. Even the FBI historians have gone mad.

WTfuckingF. Comey needs to go November 9th. His agency is out of control.
posted by chris24 at 10:31 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Here’s how much of your life has been wasted with this presidential election.

I have a 4 month old niece, I put in her birthday and it says the election has consumed 448% of her life. No wonder she's so crabby.
posted by peeedro at 10:33 AM on November 1, 2016 [60 favorites]

Directly addressing the cat also helps.

My cat loved Rubio so doesn't care what I think.
posted by zutalors! at 10:33 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Huffy Puffy, I've been fearing that the karmic price we'd pay for the Cubs winning the World Series would be Trump's election. In spite of that, I'm rooting for them.
posted by Numenius at 10:34 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

What the hell. Even the FBI historians have gone mad.

Ya know, I'd kept all my evens this whole election, didn't waste a one, but this might have taken every single even I've had stored all by its lonesome. If this is actually intended to be what it looks like, then the key government investigative agency is actively taking sides in an election. I mean that's beyond any imagining by itself, and to do it for Donald Trump is...I don't even know...
posted by gusottertrout at 10:34 AM on November 1, 2016 [32 favorites]

However, an all-out war between the Supreme Court and Congress would get REALLY ugly REALLY fast.

Yep. The justices have gavels, which do blunt damage and are very effective against congresspeople, but the one thing congress has is NUMBERS and if the court lets itself get swarmed on the capitol steps they're done for. An effective strategy would be to try to aggro them one at a time; if they pull too many at once, they could kite them back to the Supreme Court Building where they can heal and reequip. Once a state is down to 15-20% of its representatives it's probably safe for them to challenge the senators, but it's important to be ready and collect all the buffs they can from the White House before doing so because once a justice is dead the only way to replace it is to go through the confirmation hearings again and that's a real grind.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [84 favorites]

Are the FBI that scared of being given mandatory bodycams? Or are they simply that partisan and corrupt?
posted by Francis at 10:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

The interesting thing is that, on a quick skim, there appears to be almost nothing in the Marc Rich documents, because they've all been redacted. They've all been redacted to protect people's privacy (and not violate grand jury secrecy laws) because the FBI's investigation didn't lead to criminal charges. Which is how it's supposed to work (albeit not a week before an election): the government either puts up its evidence and charges you with a crime or it shuts up and goes home, but it doesn't publicly criticize you and release a trove of investigative material.
posted by zachlipton at 10:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

Yep. The justices have gavels, which do blunt damage and are very effective against congresspeople

I mostly favorited this comment for the subtle implication that congresspeople are all undead. No piercing or slashing weapons, people!
posted by Mayor West at 10:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

Oh God someone show me this on a map

OK, here you go. This is off the top of my head, I haven't looked specifically at current polling so it's sort of my gut feeling as someone who spends mumble mumble hours a day staring at the polltracker app.

Key:

Dark Blue - 244 EVs: Le Firewall Bleu. If any of these states go for Trump, I will purchase and consume the headgear of your choice.

Blue - 39 EVs: There would have to be a fairly significant uniform polling error and/or a substantial swing toward Trump for these to flip.

***IF CLINTON WINS ALL THE ABOVE VOTES SHE HAS NOW WON THE ELECTION. EVERYTHING BELOW IS GRAVY***

Light Blue - 11 EVs: I still think these are pretty safe for Clinton but I won't wet myself if any of them go red.

Grey - 47EVs: Ohio and Florida. Oh, Ohio and Florida. Why do you do this to us every four years. Actually I really should be putting Florida in the Light Blue column but I just don't trust the fuckers (present company excluded, of course).

Light Red - 7EVs: Iowa, Nebraska (Omaha). Probably not, but it wouldn't be too surprising if the ground game carried these areas.

Red - 36EVs: Clinton's stretch goals (Georgia, Arizona and Alaska). Plus with the McMomentum in Utah, anything could happen there!

Dark Red - 154EVs. The deplorable base. I really want to move Texas to the 'stretch goal' column but it's just not quite there yet. Maybe in '20.

tivalasvegas' total EV prediction: Clinton 323 / Trump 197. (She takes FL, he takes OH)

Bonus Congressional Prediction: Senate 50/50, Dems gain 15 House seats.
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [31 favorites]

they could kite them back to the Supreme Court Building where they can heal and reequip.

There is a basketball court three floors above the SCOTUS courtroom that is called The Highest Court in the Land.

Just trying to bring the temperature in the room down.
posted by Etrigan at 10:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

If this is actually intended to be what it looks like, then the key government investigative agency is actively taking sides in an election. I mean that's beyond any imagining by itself, and to do it for Donald Trump is...I don't even know...

Right Wing Authoritarian coup. It's here. Expect an attempted putsch on the 9th if this doesn't work to tilt the scales far enough Trump's way.
posted by Slap*Happy at 10:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

There is a basketball court three floors above the SCOTUS courtroom that is called The Highest Court in the Land.

Is this true? I really want it to be true.
posted by shothotbot at 10:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Yes, there is a basketball court in the SCOTUS building.
posted by suelac at 10:41 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Atlas Obscura is all [real]. They just published a fantastic book.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:42 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Regarding Trump's plans to advertise in a bunch states where he's considerably down ... it's really one of only two choices he could have made. He could either dump everything into Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado (while sending Mike Pence to chat with every single person in New Hampshire individually), or he can try a bunch of hail mary passes in states where he has a decent constituency base and see if anything sticks. Either way, he has to turn at least one fairly blue state red *somewhere*, or he loses.
posted by kyrademon at 10:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

I skimmed the Marc Rich Pardon FOIA docs and they're so heavily redacted that there's no meat on those bones. But the timing is bullshit. People need to be fired. This fucking election.
posted by dis_integration at 10:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [24 favorites]

tivalasvegas' total EV prediction: Clinton 323 / Trump 197. (She takes FL, he takes OH)

This would pretty much be my map too, although I think Trump can still win ME-2.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

The Rich docs aren't going to do much by themselves except mystify as to why they were released today since there isn't much of anything in them to actively change turnout other than the name and whatever memory that conjures up. But, still, the why is kinda paramount right now.
posted by gusottertrout at 10:44 AM on November 1, 2016

Are the FBI that scared of being given mandatory bodycams? Or are they simply that partisan and corrupt?
I was alive for part of the J. Edgar Hoover era. It's a tradition. And when The X Files debuted on TV, I watched for a few minutes and thought "honest FBI agents? this IS science fiction".
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:44 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

acidic: What the hell. Even the FBI historians have gone mad.

William J. Clinton Foundation: This initial release consists of material from the FBI's files related to the Will... https://vault.fbi.gov/william-j.-clinton-foundation

The linked has a short description of the contents:

This initial release consists of material from the FBI's files related to the William J. Clinton Foundation, a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization. The bulk of these records come from a 2001 FBI investigation into the pardon of Marc Rich (1934-2013), aka Marcell David Reich, by President Clinton in 2001; it was closed in 2005. The material is heavily redacted due to personal privacy protections and grand jury secrecy rules.

I won't even bother opening these files.

But for general background on the files: Clinton pardon records offer fuel for Hillary's foes (Politico, January 28, 2016) Over 43,000 pages give new details of some of Bill Clinton's most controversial pardons.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:44 AM on November 1, 2016

I skimmed the Marc Rich Pardo FOIA docs and they're so heavily redacted that there's no meat on those bones. But the timing is bullshit

I can kind of see Comey's position if I tilt and squint, but that's some bullshit.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:45 AM on November 1, 2016

decided to be bold and look at 538, saw Hillary's estimate down to 73%

Oh Jesus oh fuck oh fuck oh Jesus

MeFi should have a special red flashing Post Comment button for these types of kneejerk panic responses that will post the comment to the thread, but so that only the commenter themselves can see it. This would allow the member to feel the soothing catharsis of screaming into the void without actually squittering their waking night terrors all over the thread.

KEEP
CALM
AND
LOOK AT PEC
INSTEAD
posted by Existential Dread at 10:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

I realize this sounds kind of 11th-dimensional-chessy, but now I'm kinda wondering whether someone at the FBI pulled this Marc Rich shit because they knew it would come off like "The FBI is out of fucking control! They're trying to rig the election!"
posted by Etrigan at 10:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

. . . although I think Trump can still win ME-2.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:43 AM on November 1

When I first read this I interpreted it as you saying that Trump has a chance to get your vote, too.
posted by Kibbutz at 10:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

I realize this sounds kind of 11th-dimensional-chessy, but now I'm kinda wondering whether someone at the FBI pulled this Marc Rich shit because they knew it would come off like "The FBI is out of fucking control! They're trying to rig the election!

More likely b/c nobody blinked about the new emails.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Yeah, the individual reactions are a bit much - but really, if you are feeling like you need to post one, then I think it's better to walk away and do a few things to take care of yourself.

The worst things you can do right now for your well being:
- React to individual polls
- Closely follow 538, which has quite a vested interest in making this more dramatic, as well as a personal profit stake in allowing a larger margin for a Trump victory - In the unlikely event of one, he can claim it was still within his parameters, and there's no ill effect upon him in event of a Clinton victory if he doesn't put it at the same odds as, say, the Princeton Election Consortium
- Live all waking hours with one of these threads open (guilty as charged) - These are great threads, but following them in real time can be incredibly draining
- Read opinion stories
- Read comments on any other site
- Spend too much time on social media

The best things you can do for your well being:
- Vote, if you haven't already
- Disconnect from the constant news refreshing
- Disconnect from this thread and other election threads for a while if you find that it is negatively affecting your mood.
- As many have mentioned, volunteer, or donate to a close Senate campaign
- Cat videos

I feel like we need a "Breaking News Handbook" for elections... But there are a few additional rules which will help your sanity:
- Ignore anyone who claims to anything about the future with complete certainty
- Follow the profit motive - I'm talking mostly about sites like 538 here
- Wait for details before coming to any conclusions about a scandal
- Check sources and summarily dismiss anything with unreliable or highly biases sources
- Don't cherry pick sources - Only paying attention to those that make you feel either really great or really horrible is doing yourself a massive disservice either way
posted by MysticMCJ at 10:51 AM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

I feel like the federal government outside the executive branch has been a silly free for all ever since Ted Cruz and friends sent a letter to Iran being like, "never mind what our President says, we hate that guy."
posted by zutalors! at 10:52 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

tivalasvegas' total EV prediction: Clinton 323 / Trump 197. (She takes FL, he takes OH)

This would pretty much be my map too, although I think Trump can still win ME-2.

Perhaps it's at least partially because I'm scarred by the whole Brexit thing, and see too many political, reporting (especially), voting, demographic and other similarities between the last few weeks of that and the US election. Or partially as I'm sometimes a pessimist who prefers to be proved wrong (several decades of following England at cricket show that to often be the best strategy).

So my prediction a week out is significantly more negative than most.
posted by Wordshore at 10:54 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Is it bad that my first thought at this new FBI release was 'wow, these men really, really are having problems handling the idea of a woman being in charge. This is misogyny fucking up a country'

I just can't see this just being about them loving Trump and disliking Clinton based on policy and actions.
posted by Jalliah at 10:57 AM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

Just to clarify, the @FBIRecordsVault has hardly any followers and this shouldn't be interpreted as a major FBI release. More like a rogue librarian who remembered a dormant twitter account two days ago and scheduled some topical tweets with zero sense of the gravity of this situation, probably. The only reason I saw this was because @nycsouthpaw noticed it.
posted by acidic at 10:57 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Is Donald Trump a Russian Agent? | The Closer with Keith Olbermann | GQ
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:58 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

So my prediction a week out is significantly more negative than most.

You've got WI in the Trump column. Why? There hasn't been a poll with Trump leading in Wisconsin since September, and Clinton has been leading in almost every WI poll since November 2015. I'd mark it likely Clinton for sure.
posted by dis_integration at 10:58 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

So my prediction a week out is significantly more negative than most.

Calm down, Trump losing Nevada but winning Wisconsin would represent the greatest polling failure in history. It's not likely.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:59 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

So my prediction a week out is significantly more negative than most.

I see Wisconsin (red on your map) as totally one of those longshots for Trump. I mean, yes, there are conceivable maps with a Trump victory, but all of them require him to take at least one of: Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, or Pennsylvania. All of those are significant reaches over what polls have said.
posted by jackbishop at 10:59 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

guys if it makes you feel any better, i voted early and did my part to deliver 55 EVs to hillary even though it was never remotely in doubt
posted by entropicamericana at 11:00 AM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

The FBI will of likely point out that they also sent one out pertaining to Fred Trump on Sunday. I'd be shocked if a draft of that press release wasn't already on someone's computer before the Marc Rich tweet went up.

Ah, good to hear. Knowing that refreshes my even store bigly.
posted by gusottertrout at 11:01 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

If you're interested in some local level hilarity: Ashley Carter, a candidate for DC School Board who has been hiding her affiliation with a Koch-funded anti-feminist think tank, was caught posting on a parents' forum pretending to be a Carter supporter and taking shots at her opponent's appearance...while logged in under her own name (forum post, WCP recap).

h/t bulgaroktonos!

oh my god I'm a bad uninformed voter and I voted for her because she sent an email to my neighborhood listserve!!! No!!!!!!! NO!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by sallybrown at 11:02 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

The worst things you can do right now for your well being:

-Crack open your neighbor's head and feast on the goo inside
-Stick your noggin in a working particle accelerator
-Lambada
-Go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line
-Move to Miranda, no matter how nice the Alliance makes it sound
-Play with that interesting puzzle box
-Read that bit in Latin that seems like an incantation

The best things you can do for your well being:

-Look at your copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. Not the novel, the actual Guide. What does it say right there in large friendly letters? WHAT DOES IT SAY?!

-Get Zhora the Vallhund on your lap and scrobble her right behind the ears so that she gives you a head-boosh. Other canids acceptable but boosh not guaranteed.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:02 AM on November 1, 2016 [53 favorites]

-Look at your copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. Not the novel, the actual Guide. What does it say right there in large friendly letters? WHAT DOES IT SAY?!

Bring a towel?

Avoid Vogon poetry?

oh, don't panic
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:04 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

-Look at your copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. Not the novel, the actual Guide. What does it say right there in large friendly letters? WHAT DOES IT SAY?!

Amazon Kindle
posted by Etrigan at 11:05 AM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Oh thank god, NaNoWriMo has started, and I'm going to have to focus on something besides the election. I myself to churn out 2000 words a day of a Queer-themed urban fantasy will be so much more relaxing.
posted by happyroach at 11:08 AM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

folks expressing dismay at FBI antics maybe should look into the sordid history of the FBI. oh, it's all been cleaned up since the old days? riiiiight.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 11:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

After this election, Vogon poetry is no sweat.
Groop, I implore thee, my foonting turling dromes...
posted by entropicamericana at 11:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

I had to unfollow Nate Silver after one too many clickbaity apocahypothetical thinkpieces. Voted yesterday (and thanks to whoever linked the teacher comments on the CA propositions). And... as time goes on, I'm getting more annoyed with not just Fox, not just cable, not just TV news, but TV itself. All of it.
posted by kurumi at 11:09 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

The FBI will of likely point out that they also sent one out pertaining to Fred Trump on Sunday. I'd be shocked if a draft of that press release wasn't already on someone's computer before the Marc Rich tweet went up.

Fred Trump died 17 years ago and is hardly pertinent to the current election. Bill Clinton and the Clinton Foundation are a bit more pertinent. One is really not like the other.
posted by chris24 at 11:10 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Of course they're not, but that will be their justification.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:13 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

It looks to me like the foundation in question in the Marc Rich FBI files appears to be the William Jefferson Clinton Presidential Library Foundation, not the Clinton Foundation of more recent infamy. (In case this becomes A Thing this may matter?)
posted by misskaz at 11:14 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Trump/Russia thing has me completely disoriented. The lines are all dotted right now, but if they come together the enormity of the conclusion is staggering. It's surreal.
posted by diogenes at 11:16 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Of course they're not, but that will be their justification.

Yep. Sorry if my comment seemed directed towards you vs. the bad excuse you were highlighting.
posted by chris24 at 11:19 AM on November 1, 2016

By the way, I have the envelope containing my completed Oregon ballot sitting on my desk right now all sealed and stamped and ready to go out with the afternoon mail.

I swear, after marking my vote for Clinton/Kane, I must have checked the ballot ten times over before sealing the envelope just to make sure I didn't accidentally fill in the wrong bubble due to some colossal and untimely brain flatulence.

In fact, it's taking every ounce of will power I have not to tear open the envelope this very second and check it for an eleventh time, just to prove to myself that evil ballot gnomes didn't sneak into my apartment last night to work some mischief. (Besides: what's the saying? "Measure ten times, cut once, then oh-what-the-heck, why not measure again?)
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:22 AM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

Say, I do apologize for posting the note about 538's current numbers, upthread. Didn't expect the reactions it provoked and didn't mean to feed panic in some. Definitely have realized I should have thought it through and nixed the impulse. But the follow-ons have been informative; thanks.
posted by StrawberryPie at 11:23 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

hiding her affiliation with a Koch-funded anti-feminist think tank

How would one theoretically find out about this stuff, or do research at this level, for local candidates?

Here in California Assembly District 46, our incumbent Assemblymember* is a meh Democrat who doesn't seem to be doing much of anything in Sacramento. There's no real reason I ought to support this guy politically aside from the fact that voting for a warm human body is my civic duty. He sends two mailers to my house EVERY DAY (one for me, one for my partner). A very large mailer, like 11x14 on glossy cardstock! These mailers are difficult to dispose of properly, clog up my mailbox, and are a blatant waste of resources considering that he is running almost unopposed.

But, about that "almost unopposed" thing. Back in the primary, a civic-minded working mom ran as a write-in candidate, got 131 votes, and is now on the ballot for the general. She's new to elected office, and because she's such an obscure candidate with a snowball's chance of actually beating the incumbent, it's hard to find good information about her. However, from her website and the scant research I was able to do, she seems progressive enough (and is a Democrat) and not a complete basketcase. I'm really tempted to vote for her, if only because SHE DIDN'T SEND ME ANY WASTEFUL CAMPAIGN MAILERS.

But how would I find out about something like being funded by someone nefarious, or having an unpopular policy opinion that she's not sharing freely? How do I make sure I'm not voting for someone completely terrible just as a petty fuck you to this one dude?

OMG guys I'm so sorry I wrote an essay about my local state assembly race. But for real, how do you find out about this stuff?

*Why do we not have the handy "MP" style way of referring to members of legislatures both state and federal? These are always fricken mouthsful to either say or type.
posted by Sara C. at 11:23 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

starting to think it was dumb to anoint nate silver God Of Maths
posted by beerperson at 11:25 AM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

The Trump/Russia thing has me completely disoriented. The lines are all dotted right now, but if they come together the enormity of the conclusion is staggering. It's surreal.

It's like a James Bond plot, not one of the postpostpostmodern Craig plots, but one where Connery uses interior design to defeat a mook (with Roald Dahl throwing everything into the screenplay.)
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 11:29 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Nate Silver is great at being God Of Maths. The problem is twofold:

1. The God Of Maths is chained to the same shitty business model as every other two-bit political media outlet and needs to drive traffic to his page, WHICH IS ABOUT MATH. Fuck.

2. The God Of Maths really gets off on running models and thinking about interesting statistical hypotheses. Also, as a God Of Maths and not a God Of Things That Make A Damn Lick Of Sense, he most likely views posts like The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing as an interesting mathematical exercise similar to his famed Burrito Bracket series. These are all just interesting things to quantify, not matters of literal life and death for actual people who matter.
posted by Sara C. at 11:30 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Seriously, what is James Comey doing. This is insane. [fake]
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:32 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

dis_integration: Have [the FBI] made some kind of pact with Trump about dividing up the spoils of the fascist New America? You've got the votes, and we've got the braun, together we can rule with impunity?

That's Eva Braun, I presume?
posted by wenestvedt at 11:32 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yeah, not to jump on the "WTF Wordshore why WI" train, but it's been 8 elections and 32 years since Wisconsin went for a GOP nominee, and the polling there puts it outside most MoEs. Also, Brexit polling was pretty accurate, it was the betting markets that were off.

Really, that map should help people relax. Even if Trump wins OH, FL and NC, he's still going to have to make ground in some really unlikely states, like Wisconsin. I want a landslide, but I'll settle for 278-260. He really has a difficult path. And I'm thinking Clinton wins North Carolina, anyway, which basically makes a Trump win fantastical, Florida or no Florida.
posted by dis_integration at 11:33 AM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

On 538: I suspect that there's a bit of oversimplification in translating Monte Carlo models into election odds.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 11:33 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

So my prediction a week out is significantly more negative than most.

Flagged for depressing the hell out of me
posted by numaner at 11:33 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

And Brexit was a technically non-binding referendum in a polity that doesn't have a tradition of referenda and which has a much, much more ethnically homogenous electorate.

Per Wikipedia, 'White British' people were 81.9% of the total UK population (and probably a higher percentage of the eligible voter universe) as of the 2011 census.

Let's assume the 'White British' number is roughly comparable to 'Non-Hispanic Whites' in the US as an indicator of support for anti-immigrant / white nationalist movements like Trumpism and 'Leave'.

That would put the UK, let's see, somewhere between Nebraska and Minnesota (2012 statistics) in terms of majority pct. of population. That's pretty dang white by US standards.

I think commentators on both sides of the pond underestimate just how white the UK is and just how non-white the US isn't. My guess is that it's partly because Americans tend to visit the diverse parts of the UK (i.e. Greater London). And also because here in the US, due to increasing levels of segregation and the systematic under-representation of racial minorities in visible fields like the media and politics, it is easy for people (especially white Americans) to underestimate the number of black and brown Americans.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:34 AM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

chris24: “Comey needs to go November 9th. His agency is out of control.”

What I love about all this is the idea I see being bandied about that there was ever anything good about an organization which won its early fame viciously enforcing prohibition; which was the platform for J Edgar Hoover's repeated attempts (and some would say successes) in subverting American democracy, wiretapping members of Congress and other elected officials and private individuals alike; which watched Southern black people get lynched and blithely did nothing, being too busy trying to put anyone left of Nixon in prison with COINTELPRO; which outright assassinated civil rights leaders like Fred Hampton, whom it first tried to have killed by black gangs in Chicago, though they turned out to be unwilling and too canny to take the bait, so it had the white gang in Chicago (the Chicago Police Department) kill him instead.

Firing Comey would not fix the FBI. Disbanding the FBI would fix the FBI. It is an evil, bloodthirsty, traitorous organization, membership in which guarantees that one despises everything the United States stands for.
posted by koeselitz at 11:34 AM on November 1, 2016 [34 favorites]

Nate Silver is great at being God Of Maths. The problem is twofold:

the problem is people frantically updating to see Clinton's win probability % change and then freaking out as though 538 defines Known Reality
posted by beerperson at 11:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

I can kind of see the Bond connection, but once the Manafort connection was revealed, I was personally thinking that everything in this election was starting to feel like a particularly bad Tom Clancy novel from the late 80s that didn't quite make the bestsellers list.
posted by MysticMCJ at 11:35 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Although now that I think about it, "The Sum of All Fears" would be an excellent title for a novelization of this election.
posted by MysticMCJ at 11:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

then freaking out as though 538 defines Known Reality

The map is not the territory.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:37 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Why do we not have the handy "MP" style way of referring to members of legislatures both state and federal?

Reps, Sens, Dels. Assemblycritters... I'm guessing the obvious is discouraged.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia (NYT, Oct 31, 2016)

My summary of the artile: Russia hates American Democracy, not specifically Hillary Clinton, nor are they specifically supporting Donald. Paul Manafort totally didn't sway Donald to be pro-Russia, despite Paul's clear financial ties to Russia, and that computer chit-chat could have happened for any number of reasons, don't ask us why it changed after the reporter called Alfa Bank to know more. And here's a link to "an article on the conservative news site Breitbart" where Roger Stone calls all this "the new McCarthyism."

Trump’s Russia ties become the subject of multiple controversies (MSNBC, The MaddowBlog, Nov. 1, 2017)

Did the FBI actually say there's a tie between Russians hacking DNC and their intent to push the election towards Trump? Otherwise, it's counter-spin to NYT's article, plus a link to the Mother Jones piece with an unnamed veteran spy.

BREAKING NEWS: NYT to buy conservative news site, Breitbart, to diversify its reporting. [FAKE, for now]
posted by filthy light thief at 11:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

@ZekeJMiller:
Clinton aide on her plane: "I wouldn’t say what our internals show but we think that we have a relatively substantial national lead."
posted by chris24 at 11:38 AM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

Disbanding the FBI would fix the FBI. It is an evil, bloodthirsty, traitorous organization, membership in which guarantees that one despises everything the United States stands for.

So in other words it's basically like every other major US police agency, just at the federal level?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 11:40 AM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Worse. And I don't say that lightly.
posted by koeselitz at 11:41 AM on November 1, 2016

OK. We disband the FBI. Now what?
posted by Talez at 11:43 AM on November 1, 2016

Would your day be improved by reading two tax lawyers discuss yesterday's NYT story on Trump's tax positions? If so, I hope you have a super great day.
posted by zachlipton at 11:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

They do good work in the field of UFOs and fictional serial killers though.
posted by Artw at 11:43 AM on November 1, 2016 [31 favorites]

All polling analysts weight the polls they use in various ways, and also have criteria for including or excluding polls based on those polls' methodologies.

The fact that 538 is significantly off from all other poll aggregators MIGHT suggest that literally everyone else is wrong and Nate is right, even though the other guys are just as well respected as Nate... but when you have one outlier, it's best not to attach all your anxieties onto it like some sort of fear lamprey and scream BREXIT!! into the uncaring night.

Especially because even 538 still has Clinton winning!
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:45 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

They're really good at stopping terrorist plots that they also created.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:45 AM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

OK. We disband the FBI. Now what?

we all go out for beer and nachos?
posted by entropicamericana at 11:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

Talez: “OK. We disband the FBI. Now what?”

Next, disband the CIA and NSA. And use those extraordinarily large budgets to build a transparent agency designed solely to assist and oversee law enforcement in the United States, with no mandate whatsoever for secret investigations or operations, and with full disclosure to all US citizens of every action taken.
posted by koeselitz at 11:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

Just to be clear from my part, I never believed the FBI to be just good decent folk at any point in their history and was well of their many underhanded attempts to subvert democracy. What caught me off guard was the seeming naked visibility of their partisan activities in openly trying to subvert an election this time around, which would be something considerably different than their usual MO and bode particularly ill for Clinton when she is elected if indeed they made no attempt to even feign neutrality. Sometimes appearance can be more important than hidden action in the grand scheme.
posted by gusottertrout at 11:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Hahahaha
hahahaha

ahahahahahahaha

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 58s59 seconds ago

.@DarrellIssa is a very good man. Help him win his congressional seat in California.

posted by sallybrown at 11:46 AM on November 1, 2016 [26 favorites]

OK. We disband the FBI. Now what?

Fix the legislative branch.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:47 AM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

They do good work in the field of UFOs and fictional serial killers though.

They still haven't caught Ted Cruz.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:48 AM on November 1, 2016 [33 favorites]

.@DarrellIssa is a very good man. Help him win his congressional seat in California.

If you don't understand why this hug of death is the most hilarious thing I've read in a while, scroll down on the Twitter page.
posted by zachlipton at 11:49 AM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

They do good work in the field of UFOs and fictional serial killers though.

I would like it very much if bureau chief Gordon Cole were to land on his feet at the reconstituted SHIELD, following the breakup of the FBI.
posted by Strange Interlude at 11:51 AM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Security sector reform in developing countries is a field I am passingly familiar with because of my job. And the absolute number one rule of security sector reform is, the worst thing you can do is just disband the whole damn thing at once. Because then you have a new security sector full of total greenhorns and a bunch of unemployed soldiers and spies who are extremely pissed off at the government. The only workable way to do it is to get rid of the worst actors and institute sweeping internal reforms. Otherwise you might as well slap a sign on the government's back saying 'PLEASE COUP ME'
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:52 AM on November 1, 2016 [55 favorites]

I'm getting more annoyed with not just Fox, not just cable, not just TV news, but TV itself.

I am at least partway down this path with you. I vetoed Fox years ago, haven't tracked cable for the last four years, but was still checking out national news TV regularly until this past season. This past few weeks, I can't get myself to stand more than a minute of ABC News, and am simply looking at headlines on all the national TV (and cable news) sites. Still haven't bagged TV but I get where you are coming from.

I'm just so angry at our "journalists" for failing to pursue important though challenging stories (Trump/Russia connection, Trump/taxes, Trump/fraud), failing to talk about where the candidates stand in terms of policies, failing to notice how much freebie air time they handed Trump, esp. in the primaries, failing to conduct real interviews, failing to put up the video when candidates lie, and yet constantly using doomsday headlines and polls to hype this election and their audience share. Goddamit, journalist is not supposed to be an identical job description with entertainer.

I really really miss Jon Stewart this year.
posted by bearwife at 11:54 AM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

They do good work in the field of UFOs and fictional serial killers though.

—They still haven't caught Ted Cruz.

That's because Ted Cruz is like the wind, baby!

He blows napkins off picnic tables and hairdressers hate him.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:55 AM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

Hope For The GOP: A Nude Paul Ryan Has Just Emerged From An Ayahuasca Tent With Visions Of A New Republican Party

[fake]
posted by Cookiebastard at 11:56 AM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

...and scream BREXIT!! into the uncaring night.

Did you just lift that from the hobbies and pastimes section of my OkCupid profile?
posted by Wordshore at 11:57 AM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

One comment deleted. If you must talk about Clinton supporters vs Sanders supporters in terms of who's ruining Metafilter, take it to the Metatalk we have open for that purpose.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:58 AM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

And use those extraordinarily large budgets to build a transparent agency designed solely to assist and oversee law enforcement in the United States, with no mandate whatsoever for secret investigations or operations, and with full disclosure to all US citizens of every action taken.

You mean like how Director Comey sent a letter fully disclosing his actions to a Congressional committee that he knew would be leaked to the public before the paper cooled off?

Secrecy is not inherently evil. Sometimes it protects people who deserve to be protected. For example, I was interviewed by the FBI in relation to a case involving someone I'd known years before, and the only reason you know about it now is because I just told you. Yet there are many, many people in the US, including employers or potential mates, who would assume I was an unrepentant criminal merely because I was interviewed in connection with a criminal investigation that ultimately ended up not leading to anything.
posted by xyzzy at 12:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [26 favorites]

I was intrigued by the following section in Fahrenthold's recent article, so I thought I'd investigate further.

. . .the charity to which the [Trump] foundation gave its two largest gifts of the 1990s. The Trump Foundation gave $50,000 in 1995, and another $50,000 in 1999, to a nonprofit called the National Museum of Catholic Art and History.

...

The museum was housed for much of the 1990s in a former headquarters for “Fat Tony” Salerno of the Genovese crime family in East Harlem. It had few visitors and little art. A Village Voice reporter, visiting in 2001, said the collection included a photo of the pope, some nun dolls bought from the Home Shopping Network, and — just off the dining room — “a black Jacuzzi decorated with simmering candles, gold-plated soap dishes, and kitsch angel figurines.”

So, I looked up Village Voice article and found it to be quite, um, entertaining.

From 2001, it describes how the founder of the museum, an ex-Playboy bunny, used sex, political connections, and everything else to raise money for the National Museum of Catholic Art and History. Along the way, it describes sex trips to Mar-de-Lago, corrupt unions, Bill and Hillary seeking support from the unions (and donating to the museum during Hillary's Senate bid), Bob Guiccione's hand in it, and much more. For what it's worth, the Catholic church tried suing to get their name off of the organization.

The union leader, Malloy. . . "has, by his own account, helped steer $200 million in union loans into Trump projects in New York, plus $13 million for the renovation of Mar-A-Lago."
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

*Why do we not have the handy "MP" style way of referring to members of legislatures both state and federal?

Well, I don't think even places with MPs do that -- Anglophone Canadians might refer to their MP and their MPP, and Scots might refer to their MP and MSP and MEP.

But we do have MC for Member of Congress, which gets used routinely as an abbreviation for Representatives and Senators in the exciting world of legislative politics scholarship. And in the case you were discussing, you could just say "legislator," which should be understood as not referring to MCs.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 12:04 PM on November 1, 2016

Next, disband the CIA and NSA. And use those extraordinarily large budgets to build a transparent agency designed solely to assist and oversee law enforcement in the United States, with no mandate whatsoever for secret investigations or operations, and with full disclosure to all US citizens of every action taken.

The thing is, secret investigations and federal jurisdiction investigations are a necessary evil in keeping the state whole. Replacing it wholesale with a toothless tiger isn't going to fix the situation. It's been shown that some state, county and local police at all levels are sympathetic if not complicit with the values not coherent with liberal democracy and more in tune with turning their administrative territory into their own little fiefdom. Without an ability to conduct secret investigations against those same individuals your premise falls flat on its face.

The essence of the problem is that we've lost the ability as a society to reward political courage and overlook indiscretions in the face of blowing the whistle on shitty behavior. Hell, the reason Hoover was able to rule the department with an iron fist until his death was because he would guaranteed sink the political career of anyone who took him on. If politicians could stand up and say "here's corruption in our federal lawsuit" and not immediately have the electorate back their sports team parties in the inevitable retaliatory ratfucking this would solve a lot of the problem. But instead we let the whistleblower get ratfucked and when Hoover dies we hurridly patch as much as the system as possible the best we can.

Repeat ad nauseum.
posted by Talez at 12:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

This is my first comment in all these election threads, but I have read them all. You guys are keeping this Texan sane. Thank you. And, I voted today!!!
posted by shmurley at 12:06 PM on November 1, 2016 [62 favorites]

OK. We disband the FBI. Now what?

We kill the Batman.
posted by beerperson at 12:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

You think you guys have had some awkward Thanksgivings, just imagine what it'll be like for the FBI if the GOP loses the White House and the Senate. Good lord.
posted by middleclasstool at 12:12 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

> "538, which has quite a vested interest in making this more dramatic ..."

Eh. I think they get a bad rap here, honestly. Their model has a lot more uncertainty in it than most of the other models do, and they like talking about the stuff people are concerned about. Big whoop.
posted by kyrademon at 12:12 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

I guess Issa will just have to cry into his piles and piles of money that he's made while in office once he gets defeated this year.
posted by vuron at 12:13 PM on November 1, 2016

Civilians would die. We know this because there have been a number of undercover counter-terrorism operations that have saved lives. Such as Hosam Smadi's attempt to blow up a Dallas skyscraper back in 2009.

"The fully transparent federal investigative service would like to announce that Joe Pistone will be attempting to infiltrate the Bonanno crime family using the alias Donnie Brasco".
posted by Talez at 12:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Senators make $174,000 per year. Assuming a 8 hour workday/40 hour workweek, that's $83.65/hour and $669.20/day. The senate majority leader makes $193,400 per year. That's $92.98/hour and $743.84/day.

President Obama nominated Merrick Garland 230 days ago, on March 16, 2016. That's 160 work days. So senators have gotten paid $107,072 since March to not do their jobs. Mitch McConnell's made $119,014.40.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

The Trump Foundation gave $50,000 in 1995, and another $50,000 in 1999, to a nonprofit called the National Museum of Catholic Art and History. etc. etc. down to a holy bubble bath.

Why doesn't this make the international news instead of some stupid e-mails? (I mean, the number of times I've used my private server and deleted e-mails...it happens, folks) Instead BBC gives us "Trump closes the gap" for an entire day!

And it's "ad nauseAM." GRAR
posted by Namlit at 12:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

the Ashley Carter thing is a derail, but the thing that tipped me off was that her site has a footer with the text "increasing the number of women who value free markets and personal liberty" - pretty much screams libertarian to me. Also Mary Lord seems pretty legit, and Donaldson, Jr. is literally like 18.
posted by aspersioncast at 12:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

this xyzzy person: can they be trusted? new revelations raise questions
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:19 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

people are asking whether sandettie light vessel automatic actually can do the electric slide
posted by sandettie light vessel automatic at 12:20 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Eh. I think they get a bad rap here, honestly. Their model has a lot more uncertainty in it than most of the other models do, and they like talking about the stuff people are concerned about. Big whoop.

I agree, actually. While in my view PEC has a better set of assumptions built into its model, it's okay for different models to use different assumptions. Otherwise there wouldn't be much point in having a diversity of models, anyway.

Nate Silver & Co. believe that there's a greater chance for polls to 'herd' (i.e., all be wrong in the same direction, either because they're missing some fundamental new shift or because pollsters are loath to release results that might make them look dumb) -- and that's a perfectly fine assumption for them to make.

If the poll numbers were all flipped, I suspect there would be a much different conversation being had about 538 vs. PEC vs. Sabato or whoever. (And also more conversations about canned goods options, shudder.)
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:21 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

It is an evil, bloodthirsty, traitorous organization, membership in which guarantees that one despises everything the United States stands for.

Oy, let's not get carried away. I have a friend who's an FBI agent and she's neither evil nor bloodthirsty nor traitorous, and she does not despise everything the United States stands for. The organization is a mess. The people who comprise it are a varied lot.
posted by Lyme Drop at 12:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [31 favorites]

Sigh.

Y'know, I get along so well with Metafilter for long runs, and then I find people ranting stuff like entire Federal law enforcement agencies and literally everyone who works for them is inherently evil.

But we're all so much smarter than Trump's voters, right?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

Okay, we're just about standing in a circle, maybe let's not draw down on one another, yeah?

Much stress. Many polls. Wow.

Hugs to errbody.
posted by Mooski at 12:26 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

TPM on the FBI Vault thing: Odd Timing: FBI Releases Closed Case Files On Bill Clinton Pardon Of Marc Rich

Yet the timing of the tweet struck many as odd, since the FBI Records Vault Twitter account had sent no messages from Oct. 8, 2015-Oct. 30, 2016. Suddenly, on Sunday, a flood of new tweets went out with links to records released over the course of 2016, including FBI files on Donald Trump’s father, Fred, and retired CIA director David Petraeus.

posted by tonycpsu at 12:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Couple comments deleted. When choosing which of yesterday's in-thread in-jokes to bring with us, let's leave the peeing one at home.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

But we do have MC for Member of Congress, which gets used routinely as an abbreviation for Representatives and Senators in the exciting world of legislative politics scholarship.

As an added bonus, it adds a frisson of intrigue to daily language. Who, for example, am I deriding with my snide dismissal of sucker MCs?
posted by Mayor West at 12:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

Wow. Very confuse. Get the polls Namlit get the polls. Woof. *running aimlessly across the sunlit lane* *obligatory crickets*

Actually no, I don't get the polls. I've bee trying to, but. I think nobody gets the polls actually, or they wouldn't be saying what they're saying.
posted by Namlit at 12:31 PM on November 1, 2016

It's really starting to feel like Reid might not have been overreaching bringing up the Hatch Act.
posted by aspersioncast at 12:31 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

New early ballot numbers, per NBC News/TargetSmart.
2012: 13,519,140
2016 (so far): 26,236,246
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 12:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

I think the polls are all WAY off. Anyone wanna give me odds on Clinton 400+?
posted by mikelieman at 12:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

[Couple comments deleted. When choosing which of yesterday's in-thread in-jokes to bring with us, let's leave the peeing one at home.]

Can we keep the "throwing pie on floor" one, though?
posted by FelliniBlank at 12:35 PM on November 1, 2016 [31 favorites]

Asked to clarify one comment he made under his breath, however, Lindell told the Republic he said, “The Jews run the country anyway.”

If only.

klezmer Star Spangled Banner and chocolate ruglach for all plz
posted by winna at 12:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

I think the polls are all WAY off. Anyone wanna give me odds on Clinton 400+?

My head has been filled with Pantsuited propaganda from one of the infamous secret Hillary Clinton supporter Facebook groups, so I'm probably WAY-overinflating this, but I think women are going to have a recordbreaking voter turnout rate and swing even more heavily to Clinton than predicted.

I say we take the Senate and win or lose the House by single digits.

I like being optimistic about my politics and pessimistic about my sports teams.
posted by sallybrown at 12:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

Nobody would publish any polls anyway if not in the hope that their new information would change the outcome of the election. So not only by their very nature (being predictions), polls are inaccurate, they also actually are meant, or at least hoped, to be inaccurate.
Yawn, CNN, yawn.
posted by Namlit at 12:42 PM on November 1, 2016

I like being optimistic about my politics and pessimistic about my sports teams.

_{Lifelong Mets fan here.}
posted by mikelieman at 12:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Well, Comey is good for something.

@jeneps:
Hillary Clinton has raised $11.3 million online alone in last 72 hours, per her campaign. That's the most the fastest since Dem convention.
posted by chris24 at 12:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [29 favorites]

I think the polls are all WAY off. Anyone wanna give me odds on Clinton 400+?

400 pretty much requires winning Texas. Or all of AZ, IA, MO, GA, FL and OH, plus Utah. Id take that bet.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Regarding Jake Silver (and for that matter, ALL the polls), please refer to my favorite short book "How to Lie With Statistics". One of the author's points involve the futility of reducing Human Nature to a mathematical model and Silver's "likelihood" percentages are based too closely on "standard deviations" to apply to this very-non-standard election year (not even enough "past performance" to justify potential for "last minute swings"). sallybrown's optimism and Wordshore's pessimism are both equally valid, and equal to Silver's statistics this year.
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:45 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Teacher allegedly excited for Muslim refugee student’s deportation if Trump becomes president

“I can’t wait until Trump is elected,” the teacher reportedly told the student. “He’s going to deport all you Muslims. Muslims shouldn’t be given visas. They’ll probably take away your visa and deport you. You’re going to be the next terrorist, I bet.”

WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE AND THIS COUNTRY?!?
posted by Talez at 12:46 PM on November 1, 2016 [61 favorites]

I think the polls are all WAY off. Anyone wanna give me odds on Clinton 400+?

On predicit.org right now you could get a $25 payout on a $1 bet if Clinton pulled off 400 EVs.
posted by dis_integration at 12:47 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

25:1? Pretty good. I was thinking more a 6 pack of microbrew or cider, if T.D. Strange wanted to keep things interesting.
posted by mikelieman at 12:49 PM on November 1, 2016

Nobody would publish any polls anyway if not in the hope that their new information would change the outcome of the election.

What is this? No. Pollsters are trying to provide information. Some of them are biased, but fundamentally their job is about reporting the state of the election, not trying to change it. Some people really do just love statistics and feel that it's their calling to provide accurate information to the public. They're not a bunch of nefarious manipulators; that polling results can influence the narrative of elections is unquestionable, but that is not why pollsters do what they do.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 12:54 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

Speaking of poll aggregation, I'm surprised that the NYT's poll aggregator aggregator hasn't made more of an appearance in these threads. Scroll down to the big colorful table to see how the NYT, 538, PEC, Cook Political Report, Sabato, Predictwise, DailyKos, HuffPo, and Rothenberg & Gonzales are scoring each state. It also makes it easier to see where there's consensus (e.g.: OH) and where there isn't (e.g.: FL). Also, PEC really looks like an outlier when it comes to the Nebraska and Maine CD 2s.

Anyways, according to the aggregator aggregator, there are currently 272 EVs among the 24 states that all 9 aggregators agree are solidly for Clinton. This will continue to fluctuate as each aggregator updates their estimates.
posted by mhum at 12:58 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

[Couple comments deleted. When choosing which of yesterday's in-thread in-jokes to bring with us, let's leave the peeing one at home.]

Dammit. I was hoping for another Wiki entry.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:59 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Did Trump or his surrogates ever walk back his claim during the third debate that there isn't any evidence of Russia doing the hacking? It's kind of amazing that he got a pass on saying that when the American security community says otherwise. I mean, how is that not bigger news?
posted by diogenes at 12:59 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

‘And So Are You’: Trump, Misogyny, and the Dangerous Precedent Set by This Election [Alison Turkos for Rewire; cw: sexual assault]
posted by melissasaurus at 1:00 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Did Trump or his surrogates ever walk back his claim

let me stop you right there
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:01 PM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

Are we seriously doing "not all FBI agents" stanning in here? That's a really insulting way to miss the point about the FBI's having always been a political (and unambiguously white supremacist) organization.
posted by invitapriore at 1:01 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

Prior to his untimely demise, JFK had plans to split up the FBI (or was it the CIA?) and break it into a thousand pieces. Maybe defanging these intelligence and investigative agencies via separation of powers could prevent abuse. Unshelve those plans.
posted by Apocryphon at 1:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

“I can’t wait until Trump is elected,” the teacher reportedly told the student. “He’s going to deport all you Muslims. Muslims shouldn’t be given visas. They’ll probably take away your visa and deport you. You’re going to be the next terrorist, I bet.”
Horrible. Direct link to the ACLU complaint. It gets worse, actually.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

Can we cast the movie of this election yet? However things turn out next week, I'm gonna need the prestige class, recent events dramatized, soft pedal propaganda film of Election 2016 to come out goddamn quick. It needs to get to theaters way faster than Zero Dark Thirty got there, for serious. Here's what I have so far:

Kellyanne Conway: Jane Lynch
Steve Bannon: John Goodman
Paul Manafort: Paul Giamatti
Corey Lewandowski: Michael Fassbender
James Comey: William H Macy
Julian Assange: Benedict Cumberbatch again why not?
Alex Jones: Bill Hicks admits its been him this whole time and retires the role in this film
Leon Podesta: Bryan Cranston
Joe Biden: JK Simmons
Barack Obama: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Michelle Obama: Simone Missick
Anthony Weiner: James Franco
Huma Abedin: Nasim Pedrad
Donald Trump: Stephen Root
Hillary Rodham: Kate McKinnon
Hillary Rodham Clinton: Gillian Anderson
Hillary Clinton: Meryl Streep

Seeking casting suggestions for the candidates' families and candidates for director. Dark Comedy is the only possible choice for genre.
posted by EatTheWeek at 1:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Voted today. Bustling but quick. Got an I VOTED EARLY sticker. (The last word wasn't actually in italics, but it's implied)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:03 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Seeking casting suggestions for the candidates' families and candidates for director. Dark Comedy is the only possible choice for genre.

I maintain that it has to be the Coen Brothers.
posted by sallybrown at 1:04 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

Are we seriously doing "not all FBI agents" stanning in here?

I think we're doing "let's not become the evil we despise" in here. The FBI, as an institution, supports white supremacy. Individual FBI agents are still human beings.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:04 PM on November 1, 2016 [29 favorites]

Prior to his untimely demise, JFK had plans to split up the FBI (or was it the CIA?) and break it into a thousand pieces. Maybe defanging these intelligence and investigative agencies via separation of powers could prevent abuse. Unshelve those plans.

but I don't want Hillary to get shot in the head :(
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:04 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Maybe defanging these intelligence and investigative agencies via separation of powers could prevent abuse. Unshelve those plans.

Hahahahahaha...not happening. Nobody in power wants to do that. They might replace an uncooperative agency director like Clinton will likely do with Comey, but both the Republicans and the Democrats love the surveillance state. It is a key part of their power, and never in a million years would they ever seriously discuss giving that up.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 1:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Are we seriously doing "not all FBI agents" stanning in here? That's a really insulting way to miss the point about the FBI's having always been a political (and unambiguously white supremacist) organization.

Then the point shouldn't be expressed in a manner identical to "all FBI agents".
posted by Etrigan at 1:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Teacher allegedly excited for Muslim refugee student’s deportation if Trump becomes president

Yeah, basically fire that prejudiced teacher without prejudice. Indeed, arrest that teacher. That's out and out child abuse (the choking part) not to mention creating a hostile work environment. The teacher's views might be the motivating factor, but their actions are out and and out illegal.
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

I maintain that it has to be the Coen Brothers.

I'd prefer Uwe Boll, tbh
posted by Existential Dread at 1:06 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Republicans have paid no price for blocking Garland. They will pay no price for blocking Clinton's SCOTUS appointments indefinitely. That's why they're openly signaling they're going to do exactly that.

I mentioned in an earlier thread that I was planning to donate to Senate campaigns in swing states with letters to their opponents and McConnell saying that I was doing it because of Garland, and I did indeed do that thing.

Here's one of my letters:

Dear Senator Kirk,

I am not in the habit of donating to campaigns in other states, but I wanted to let you know that I have donated to your opponent, Tammy Duckworth, because of your party's refusal to act on the Supreme Court nomination.

To be honest, I know little about Ms. Duckworth's views on the many important issues facing the country. What I do know is that a substantial number of Senators are refusing to do their job, and that is simply unacceptable.

As Election Day draws nearer, as you meet with your constituents, your volunteers, and your staffers, I hope you will ask yourself what would happen if any of them refused to do an essential part of their jobs.

I hope, too, that you will reflect on your oath of office and your promise to faithfully discharge the duties of your office.

Whether or not you do these things, though, I will do what I can to ensure that Illinois has a Senator who is ready and willing to do the job.

I cc'd McConnell (and also Judge Garland for good measure) (and the candidates I was donating to, too).

Not every MeFite can afford to donate to campaigns, but if you'd like to and haven't, please consider donating to Senate seats in swing states. (Note: NC was not among my chosen states. If you're looking for a campaign to donate to, may I suggest Deborah Ross in NC?)

And even if you think the presidential race is in the bag, you can phone bank for Hillary in swing states, like Nevada and Arizona, and help try for a Democratic majority in the Senate. (Obligatory MeFites United phone bank team link.)

This ~~bull~~ malarkey with refusing to do their jobs and hold confirmation hearings has GOT to stop. If a Democratic Senate is the only way to make that happen, I'll take that challenge.
posted by kristi at 1:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [80 favorites]

Yeah, the individual reactions are a bit much

And if you find the news distressing and aren't directly involved in it yourself, it might make sense to stop paying attention until the election's done. It's not like knowing is going to make any difference.

Actually getting involved is probably one of the best antidotes to anxiety, though.
posted by Coventry at 1:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

The FBI, as an institution, supports white supremacy. Individual FBI agents are still human beings.

That's a bug, not a feature.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

America's Dad Tom Hanks as America's Dad Tim Kaine?
posted by ckape at 1:10 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

America's Dad Tom Hanks as America's Dad Tim Kaine?

I gotta go with John C. Reilly in full Brule for this one.
posted by Strange Interlude at 1:13 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

Seeking casting suggestions for the candidates' families and candidates for director. Dark Comedy is the only possible choice for genre.

I think Chris Morris and Armando Iannucci should get back together for this one for directing and producing it.
posted by airish at 1:13 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'd cast Jon Voight over Stephen Root. Jon's ~~resting bitch face~~ perpetual scowl was made for the part.
posted by cmfletcher at 1:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

EatTheWeak, I was thinking of casting James Woods for Anthony Weiner.

But yeah, Stephen Root would be a fantastic choice for the real world Macho Business Donkey Wrestler (partial transcript here).

--
America's Dad Tom Hanks as America's Dad Tim Kaine?

How about Kevin Pollak, if you want to make this really dark?
posted by wenestvedt at 1:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I hate cops [and the Post], part 903872626:

Cops and firefighters were blown away by Clinton’s hubris in planning the fireworks display, which would eclipse the shower of blazing sparkles that preceded the balloon drop at July’s Democratic National Convention. “It’s a little presumptuous of her to plan on winning. I guess she put in for this before Friday,” one NYPD detective said.
Others said the actual election results could put a damper on things, but one firefighter raised the specter of a 2000-style recount and added, “So what’s she going to do, put the fireworks on ice?”
Another source wondered: “If she loses, will she take it over to the East Side and sell it to Trump for half-price?”

No, you're right. Why plan in advance and arrange permits when Hillz can just send Huma out to some street corner in Staten Island at 11:59pm on Election Night to pick up an armful of illegal sparklers?
posted by acidic at 1:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [71 favorites]

Kaine/Hanks sounds more like a new financial industry regulatory bill than it does a presidential ticket, tbh.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:17 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'd cast Jon Voight over Stephen Root. Jon's resting bitch face perpetual scowl was made for the part.

Plus he has the requisite shitty shitty politics. Speaking of which, any appropriate parts for Craig T. Nelson in this dramedy? Perhaps as Jeb! or Kasich?
posted by Existential Dread at 1:18 PM on November 1, 2016

I gotta go with John C. Reilly in full Brule for this one.

Clinton: Trump is Putin's puppet
Trump: No puppets! You're a puppet!
Kaine: I'm a little afraid of pruppets.
posted by maxsparber at 1:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Will Sasso would nail Alex Jones
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Anthony Weiner must be played by Jon Glaser period the end.
posted by Tevin at 1:19 PM on November 1, 2016 [21 favorites]

Kaine/Hanks sounds more like a new financial industry regulatory bill than it does a presidential ticket, tbh.

All trades must be preceded by a harmonica solo.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:19 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Tevin: Anthony Weiner must be played by Jon Glaser period the end.

I yield to this self-evident truth.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:20 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Evan Handler as Egg McMuffin.
posted by pxe2000 at 1:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'd cast Jon Voight over Stephen Root. Jon's resting bitch face perpetual scowl was made for the part.

Does he have access to the necessary histrionic range though? Phillip Seymour Hoffman was my #1 choice for Trump but, alas.

America's Dad Tom Hanks as America's Dad Tim Kaine?

I can see it, but I'd want to see him read against the other really strong candidate for Kaine.
posted by EatTheWeek at 1:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oy, tough crowd. I'd hope it would be taken as a given that universals aren't really the best way to view any large group of people, but to be explicit; Yes, I'm sure there have been decent people who've worked for the FBI, and I believe the FBI has done some good for our government and that there have been better and worse eras for the department since its inception. The FBI has also had many bad actors, subverted our government and acted as thugs on the governments behalf at times.

Many other things could be, I'm sure, reasonably said about the organization, pro, con or neutral, and I'm sure books attempting to do such are available for purchase through Amazon and may also be available at your local library in care there is anyone here who is further interested in their history or wants to fine tune the accounting of good and bad in their history.
posted by gusottertrout at 1:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I hate cops [and the Post], part 903872626:

The worst bit:

The only fire-related union to back a candidate is the Fire Marshals Benevolent Association, which endorsed Trump.

So Trump repeatedly attacks fire marshals (fires marshal?) during the course of his campaign, but the New York union endorses him anyway? Every day, I'm believing what he said about shooting someone on 5th Avenue more and more.
posted by zachlipton at 1:26 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

one firefighter raised the specter of a 2000-style recount and added, “So what’s she going to do, put the fireworks on ice?”

Sorry, I'm not a firefighter, is one required to store explosives by packing them in ice?
posted by indubitable at 1:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Can Tilda Swinton play Hillary
posted by beerperson at 1:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

News: Insane nuns sayin' Sununu's son sins in a Nissan.

I could have sworn that was a palindrome, but on closer inspection, no. Perhaps the best political palindrome ever written concerned his dad, though. While he was twisting in the wind at the end of his career, a Herb Caen contributor named David Ray wrote:

"Wonder if Sununu's fired now?"
posted by msalt at 1:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [31 favorites]

I feel like every 4 years this entire country forgets that it has ever been through a presidential election before ever.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

Fahrenthold incoming! This is the portrait of himself that Donald Trump bought with $20,000 from his charity

The current whereabouts of the painting are still unknown.
posted by zachlipton at 1:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Trump needs to be played by Thomas F. Wilson as he's already played that role before.
posted by I-baLL at 1:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Well, Comey is good for something.

@jeneps:
Hillary Clinton has raised $11.3 million online alone in last 72 hours, per her campaign. That's the most the fastest since Dem convention.

Does...does anybody wanna write a letter about my emails?
posted by Brainy at 1:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [36 favorites]

The current whereabouts of the painting are still unknown.

Aren't you paying any attention at all? It's running for president.
posted by Namlit at 1:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

Donald Trump: Stephen Root

What? No. Alex Bald win.
posted by zarq at 1:32 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is the portrait of himself that Donald Trump bought with $20,000 from his charity

That is actually a pretty awesome painting, I was expecting something a lot more Napoleonic
posted by beerperson at 1:32 PM on November 1, 2016

Trump needs to be played by Thomas F. Wilson as he's already played that role before.

I really think that could be Tom's great comeback role.
posted by Strange Interlude at 1:32 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

me: “It is an evil, bloodthirsty, traitorous organization, membership in which guarantees that one despises everything the United States stands for.”

Lyme Drop: “Oy, let's not get carried away. I have a friend who's an FBI agent and she's neither evil nor bloodthirsty nor traitorous, and she does not despise everything the United States stands for. The organization is a mess. The people who comprise it are a varied lot.”

Okay, I should have added that membership in the FBI might just indicate a gross misunderstanding of history and a complete lack of any kind of learning about what the FBI has always stood for: white supremacy, violent repression, judicial slander and lies. If a person had any idea about what the FBI is, they would not be part of such a criminal enterprise. But I accept that some people just might not have read anything honest about it.

Still, given the fact that the FBI has always stood against the principles the United States was founded on, you'd think people would figure that out and leave.

me: "[Disband the FBI...] Next, disband the CIA and NSA. And use those extraordinarily large budgets to build a transparent agency designed solely to assist and oversee law enforcement in the United States, with no mandate whatsoever for secret investigations or operations, and with full disclosure to all US citizens of every action taken."

zarq: "Civilians would die. We know this because there have been a number of undercover counter-terrorism operations that have saved lives. Such as Hosam Smadi's attempt to blow up a Dallas skyscraper back in 2009."

That was clearly incitement. The FBI picked him up, told him to be a terrorist, told him what target he should choose, and gave him a fake bomb. We know this because the FBI admitted it in open court. Hosam Smadi was a danger to no one. Every single incident where the FBI claims success is an instance of them lying. They've been lying for over a hundred years now; we should know not to trust them.

And for every Hosam Smadi, there are hundreds of people railroaded on crimes they didn't commit, for example by the FBI's utterly fake "hair analysis" program which churned out nothing but counterfeit lab reports designed to help local cops across the United States ensure convictions where they had no real evidence. How many people were falsely convicted by the FBI's intentional treachery? We still don't know.

The United States does not face some dire threat from foreign terrorists, and if we did, the FBI would be the very last people we should choose to protect us.

"The FBI is also in charge of investigating fraud, sex trafficking, child exploitation, etc. Some of those operations require secrecy or undercover work. Rebuilding the organization from the ground up sounds like a fine idea. But removing a key tool in the way they fight crime seems stupidly short-sighted."

Local cops investigate fraud, sex trafficking, child exploitation, etc. Secrecy and undercover work is fine as long as it's disclosed immediately afterward, which is counter to FBI practice.

But yes, that might mean people get hurt. That might mean people even die. I don't care, and neither should you. We absolutely should not be willing to accept the imprisonment and even murder of tens of thousands just so we can sleep safely at night. That's not how the United States was supposed to work. This country is safer than it's been in decades, crime is at record lows – it's time to give freedom back to the people we've been stealing it from over the past hundred years.
posted by koeselitz at 1:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

This is the portrait of himself that Donald Trump bought with $20,000 from his charity

That is actually a pretty awesome painting, I was expecting something a lot more Napoleonic

Agreed but representing Trump as "six foot tall orangish blob slapped together in five or six minutes which then rips off a charity" is a bit on the nose, don't you think?
posted by MCMikeNamara at 1:34 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

Sorry, really digging into "should we disband the FBI?" is going to be too big a sidebar here; it needs its own thread if people really want to pursue the pro's and con's of that in a serious way.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:35 PM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Speaking of which, any appropriate parts for Craig T. Nelson in this dramedy?

General Flynn obvs
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

John Turturro as Manafort, or I walk.
posted by petebest at 1:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

The current whereabouts of the painting are still unknown.
No, they found it hanging up at Trump-owned Doral golf resort. It's in the article.
posted by aabbbiee at 1:38 PM on November 1, 2016

The Intercept: "At Hillary Clinton’s Favorite Think Tank, a Doubling Down on Anti-Iran, Pro-Saudi Policy"

Don't let this sway your votes, but by all means bring this up, again and again, on November 9.
posted by Apocryphon at 1:38 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

The current whereabouts of the painting are still unknown.

But they say that on dark nights like tonight if you're alone in these woods you can still here it howling wrooooooooooooooooooong
posted by beerperson at 1:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

That painting has a real Vigo the Carpathian look
posted by Yowser at 1:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

No, they found it hanging up at Trump-owned Doral golf resort. It's in the article.

It's a bit confusing. There are two paintings of Trump. The one hanging at Trump's golf resort is the one he paid $10,000 for. The $20,000 painting whereabouts are not publicly known.
posted by papercrane at 1:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

No, wait, there are two paintings? He's paid a total of $30K from his charity's coffers for two different paintings of himself? The $10K one is at Doral; the $20K one was shipped to his golf club in Westchester, NY.
posted by aabbbiee at 1:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

No, they found it hanging up at Trump-owned Doral golf resort. It's in the article.

iirc, there were two such charity paintings. One's been found at Mar-a-lago, I think this is the other one.
posted by porpoise at 1:41 PM on November 1, 2016

No, they found it hanging up at Trump-owned Doral golf resort. It's in the article.

I hate that this is a thing, but that's a different painting. There are several paintings of Trump he purchased with Foundation money, scattered around the country.

To recap why the painting is a thing, because it's a touch esoteric. Trump bought the painting at a charity event with money from the Trump Foundation, meaning he paid for it with other people's money, people who presumably received a tax deduction for their gifts. Once that money is in the Foundation, it can only be used for charitable purposes. Trump used the money to buy paintings of himself and put them on display in his businesses. The money did go to charity, because he bought them at charity events, but he received something of value in return: the painting, and he's not put that item to charitable use (as if there is a charitable use for a large painting of Donald Trump, besides setting it on fire as part of a performance art piece). In other words, Foundation donors got a tax deduction for buying Trump a large painting of himself (read: taxpayers subsidized Trump's painting).
posted by zachlipton at 1:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

The Trump National Golf Club apparently has a "Family of the Year Award" -- guess who won.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:47 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

“I can’t wait until Trump is elected,” the teacher reportedly told the student. “He’s going to deport all you Muslims. Muslims shouldn’t be given visas. They’ll probably take away your visa and deport you. You’re going to be the next terrorist, I bet.”

That's a pretty good recipe for creating a terrorist, yeah.
posted by Rykey at 1:49 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

The Trump National Golf Club apparently has a "Family of the Year Award" -- guess who won.

The staging of that photograph is inexcusable.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:49 PM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

I wonder which of the paintings is actually one of his Horcruxes?
posted by cirhosis at 1:50 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

Anthony Weiner must be played by Jon Glaser period the end.

I was thinking Paul Reuben would have a certain appropriateness...
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:50 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Reminder to Oregonians: we get a $50 tax credit ($100 per couple) for political donations, but it has to be for a race on the Oregon ballot. Assuming Hillary doesn't really need the money here at this point, does anyone have a good suggestion, perhaps a House or Senate race?
posted by msalt at 1:52 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

I assume the missing painting is in the Trump Tower, in his bathroom, facing his gold toilet.
posted by emjaybee at 1:55 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

This is the portrait of himself that Donald Trump bought with $20,000 from his charity

OMG, he's that guy in Duran Duran!
posted by msalt at 1:55 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

The Trump National Golf Club apparently has a "Family of the Year Award" -- guess who won.

why is Donald Jr sitting on a booster seat
posted by beerperson at 1:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

facing his gold toilet.

make that defacing

I could go on adding letters
posted by Namlit at 1:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Can Tilda Swinton play Hillary

As far as I'm concerned Tilda Swinton can play any of the characters, including Chris Christie. She's that good.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

Everybody knows this but everybody has also forgotten, so let's do what we can to remind people on social media and IRL:

12 women have come forward to publicly say that Donald Trump molested them.
And he admitted that he does that and gets away with it because he's famous.

posted by msalt at 1:59 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Whoever had November 1st in the pool for when c*nt would be thrown out, collect your winnings. Texas Ag Commissioner called Clinton it in a tweet today.

@JFreports
In which @MillerForTexas calls @HillaryClinton the c-word. He's since deleted the tweet #txlege #Election2016 [screenshot of deleted tweet]
posted by chris24 at 2:01 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

I know you guys are casting a 2016 election movie but I think Mia Wasikowska would be a good choice for a Watergate era HRC, or HR more accurately at that time.
posted by zutalors! at 2:01 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

This piece by Molly Ball of The Atlantic is a great, ominous read - Hillary Clinton's March to Victory - and begins:

MANCHESTER, N.H.—She was going to win, and that would be all that mattered.

Hillary Clinton hugged Elizabeth Warren and picked up the microphone and laughed, that steely chortle that had set so many men’s nerves on edge for so many years. She looked out at the crowd, a couple of thousand people, mostly white people, wearing plaid.

“Wow, I don’t know about you, but I could listen to Elizabeth go on all day!” she said, as if someone had accused her of not being able to do so. “It is so great being here, back in New Hampshire!”

It was finally happening: The election was just a few endless days away, people were already voting, she was up in all the polls. At long last, she was drawing respectable crowds, albeit often with the help of figures like Warren, and the people seemed actually excited to see her, even if it was an excitement partly born of panic.

It was a bright, wind-whipped New England fall day, all sun-blazed neon-orange leaves and church spires sticking out of copses. Behind the stage, big blue cutout letters spelled out “STRONGER TOGETHER.”

Looking out on the audience, she could see them all—the college kids who had voted overwhelmingly for her opponent in the primary; the Massachusetts liberals mostly there to see Warren. There on the stage was Warren, who had waited until the primaries were effectively over to endorse her, and Maggie Hassan, the governor and senatorial candidate who just a couple months ago, asked in a television interview whether she thought Clinton was trustworthy, bobbed and weaved and wouldn’t answer the question. Perhaps to make the event appear filled to capacity, the campaign had confined it to just half the college’s lawn.

Just a muscular, wonderful piece of writing.
posted by sallybrown at 2:03 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

while we're casting i'd like to have several insert shots of Idris Elba, playing me, reading the internet furiously
posted by beerperson at 2:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [92 favorites]

why is Donald Jr sitting on a booster seat

Tiffany is probably under there, carrying him around palanquin style
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:06 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

The Intercept casts doubt on Franklin Foer's server story in Slate.

Foer tweets: Lots of responses to my piece on that server. I'm writing a follow up that will take account of these responses. More soon.
posted by sallybrown at 2:06 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

@kenvogel
Just to give you an idea of how prepared the Trump campaign is: A Fla. GOTV vendor sent out an email TODAY trying to hire Trump canvassers. [email screenshot]
posted by chris24 at 2:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

melissasaurus: The Trump National Golf Club apparently has a "Family of the Year Award" -- guess who won.

Photo taken in a hotel room, during renovations? Or did Donald deem those chairs "not classy enough" so he thought they'd look better covered with light brown sheets? And where is Melania? SO MANY QUESTIONS!
posted by filthy light thief at 2:08 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Idris Elba, playing me, reading the internet furiously

"Stringer Bell" Idris Elba or "DCI John Luther" Idris Elba? Not that it matters, but IT TOTALLY MATTERS
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:12 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

i was assuming he was dressed as Roland Deschains
posted by beerperson at 2:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Idris Elba playing someone scouring the internet? Heimdall Elba surely.
posted by gusottertrout at 2:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Don't forget "Heimdall" Idris Elba, that's how I see myself most days
posted by Existential Dread at 2:15 PM on November 1, 2016

I just wanted the clip of Obama singing Purple Rain to that kid like four times in a row.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 2:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

chris24: @JFreports
In which @MillerForTexas calls @HillaryClinton the c-word. He's since deleted the tweet #txlege #Election2016 [screenshot of deleted tweet]

The worst thing is the casual use - I'd prefer if he was angry at her for some perceived slight, like she didn't reply to his earlier tweet asking which bleach she uses to get emails so sparkly-white.

Instead, he referred to an auto Alliance poll of Pennsylvania that shows Trump up at 44 to Clinton's 43. But instead of typing Clinton, he typed ... well you get it. He took the time to type out Pennsylvania (or maybe it auto-suggested a few characters in) but he opted to write c*nt, probably selecting that instead of what a phone might otherwise suggest.

That's a lot of dedication to being a misogynistic asshole online.
posted by filthy light thief at 2:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Photo taken in a hotel room, during renovations? Or did Donald deem those chairs "not classy enough" so he thought they'd look better covered with light brown sheets? And where is Melania? SO MANY QUESTIONS!

Also, why does it look like Donald Jr. is about to kick up a big ol' fuss if somebody doesn't quickly choo-choo a spoonful of strained carrots into his mouth?
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:19 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Photo taken in a hotel room, during renovations?

Looks to me like in a cheap photo studio setup. Gray backdrop and a drop cloth on the furniture to hide the different two types of chairs.
posted by chris24 at 2:20 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

koeselitz, you got my first favorite on my first day as a registered user. (After ~14 years of lurking.)
posted by BS Artisan at 2:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [39 favorites]

MANCHESTER, N.H.—She was going to win, and that would be all that mattered.
I've mentioned here and there that I have been fighting a political (union) fight since 2004. These days, we are closing the final documents, we won, and we won big. But we are still getting the worst shit from our opponents.
In this last year, Hillary has been a huge inspiration - it gets dusty in here just typing those words - because I've heard the worst slanders directly to my face, I've seen friends turn away, even a boyfriend change sides. I know that what has been said behind my back was far worse than what was said to me. I'm down with severe anxiety and stress right now, because people with no issue in the actual fight have been using my now horrible reputation against me in very different situations, were I thought I was safe. I can't even imagine how Hillary has dealt with this since the 80's, but looking at her has kept me going.
Even now, when I'm mostly walking around in my pajamas trying to get back to real life, I have realized that the only strategy that will work for me to get those last ten steps gone is to wear a pantsuit and a big smile, and focus on the goal. Because Hillary taught me that by example.
OK, and also: when they go low, we go high. So thumbs up to Michelle as well.
posted by mumimor at 2:23 PM on November 1, 2016 [83 favorites]

Also, why does it look like Donald Jr. is about to kick up a big ol' fuss if somebody doesn't quickly choo-choo a spoonful of strained carrots into his mouth?

a Trump boy needs lots of beta carotene to get that Trump color yes he does yes he does open up the hangar here comes the 757
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

The Trump National Golf Club apparently has a "Family of the Year Award" -- guess who won.

"Honors a family for its contributions to the game, and for representing the virtues and ideals of golf and family."

I'm trying to wrap my head around the "virtues and ideals of golf" and the Trumps. I mean, if golf is a good walk spoiled, then what is golf with the Trumps? ($20,000 same as the portrait).
posted by nubs at 2:26 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

John Turturro as Manafort, or I walk

Not Paul Sorvino??
posted by Room 641-A at 2:26 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

If that orange skin tone were carrot-induced, his lower eyelids would be orange too. So, no, it's not.
(Ask me how I know, if you care.)
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Y'all still casting a movie huh?
posted by DynamiteToast at 2:27 PM on November 1, 2016

While you were casting the movie, I was casting my vote.
posted by rocketman at 2:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

Too-Ticky: If that orange skin tone were carrot-induced, his lower eyelids would be orange too. So, no, it's not.
(Ask me how I know, if you care.)

Sooo...about that carrot induced tinting knowledge there?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

I just want to take a moment out and say how much I love you all, and how much I appreciate the mods efforts.

That is all.
posted by mikelieman at 2:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

Alex Jones: Bill Hicks admits its been him this whole time and retires the role in this film

This fits well with my longstanding theory that George W. Bush is actually Andy Kaufman.
posted by thecaddy at 2:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

The Trump National Golf Club apparently has a "Family of the Year Award" -- guess who won.

"Honors a family for its contributions to the game, and for representing the virtues and ideals of golf and family."

Virtues and ideals, indeed. From a Sept 2015 Washington Post article:

"When it comes to cheating, he's an 11 on a scale of one to 10," added former Sports Illustrated and ESPN columnist Rick Reilly, who also told this tale:

"Reilly told The Washington Post about an afternoon when Trump wrote down scores he didn't actually achieve on his scorecard, conceded putts to himself by raking the ball into the hole with his putter rather than striking it properly ("He rakes like my gardener!"), and even called a gimme — something a player might claim for a two-foot putt — on what should have been a chip shot.

"'He took the world's first gimme chip-in,' Reilly said. At one point, Trump, after taking a number of second shots, told Reilly to "make sure you write that I play my first ball. You don't get a second ball in life." In life it may or may not be true that a person gets a second chance; and yet, as Reilly wrote, on holes 1, 13 and 17, Trump did indeed get a second ball."
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:32 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

Re panicking about today's Auto Alliance poll that has her down 1 in PA, I note that the same pollster has her up 6 in OH today. So.
posted by saturday_morning at 2:34 PM on November 1, 2016

@RobbyMook
Some stats from the field: door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from the same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH.
posted by melissasaurus at 2:35 PM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

as time goes on, I'm getting more annoyed with not just Fox, not just cable, not just TV news, but TV itself. All of it.

As a Canadian I had the opportunity to watch some U.S. based TV that did not replace the U.S. commercials with Canadian ones and I was very surprised as the volume of commericials trying to bilk people out of their money in either get rich quick schemes or improve your life schemes. So many lawsuit commercials (if you've taken drug x then you may be entitled to compensation and you only pay if we get money), ambulance chaser schemes (injured in an accident call our catchy phone number and catchy rhyming lawyer firm name), indepedent school commercials (get training at institute x for result y), get the cure commercials (got condition x your insurance might cover it, contact us), miracle product commercials (buy now and pay only x when it's worth y). This wasn't late at night either, though it was in the evening. I am just not used to the constant bombardment of these type of businesses. Seems like the bilking people of money industry is thriving in a time when more people have less money than the previous generation or two. Seems the deregulation push of the last few decades is clearly a move to legalize theft. Trump's business model fits right in with these, no wonder he seems so familiar to many. That's just the commercials of course. Mainstream journalism, drama and comedy is for the most part unfathomnably pathetic.

Then there's the History channel which seems rife with small patriotic businesses that celebrate Americana, freedom, and the 2nd amendment reality shows. They often look back to an era when America was great, when freedom wasn't a bad word (apparently now it is), when cars guzzled gasoline and were made of STEEL, when things were manufactured state side with American craftmanship, etc. and so on. It's almost like propoganda. Messages of bygone times and golden eras abound.
posted by juiceCake at 2:35 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

I do care. How do you know? Did you eat a ton of carrots like in the House pilot?

Also, in that Obama-gives-candy-to-tiny-Prince tweet, after you watch the video forty times, keep clicking until you find the stills with the kids' costumes. Tears will roll, I guarantee. Obama + kids automatic tearjerker; Obamas being great at the white house for one of the last times; the little unicorn; then Prince kid's mustache. Destroyed.

Please please let Michelle run in eight years please.
posted by Don Pepino at 2:37 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

@jameslsutter, co-creator of the Pathfinder RPG: Imagine if Frodo was all "Sauron's bad, but Gandalf's done some morally gray stuff, too, so I'll stay home."

Don't get eaten by orcs. Vote.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:38 PM on November 1, 2016 [51 favorites]

juiceCake: I agree with all of that except the "almost."
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 2:38 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Chicago City Council orders remaining honorary Trump street sign removed as soon as possible. (One of the two signs was stolen on October 14.)
posted by dnash at 2:38 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

The 2016 Presidential Election: A Devil's Glossary [The Atlantic]
posted by melissasaurus at 2:38 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

So many lawsuit commercials

As a Canadian who grew up on the Michigan border, I can recite several personal injury law firm commercials to you from memory if you like.

"Hurt in a car? Call William Mattar!"

I can go on.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:39 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

mandolin conspiracy: carrot induced tinting knowledge

Okay then. My sister used to have a skin condition, which made her uncomfortable and she tried a lot of different remedies. One of them was to ingest a kilogram of carrots a day, every day. They could be eaten, or made into juice.
Long story short: consuming that many carrots will make you Trumpily, gloriously orange. All over. Lower eyelids included.
The skin condition did not improve. Sad!
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

Hillz can just send Huma out to some street corner in Staten Island at 11:59pm on Election Night to pick up an armful of illegal sparklers?

Welp she better not email her about it I guess
posted by Sara C. at 2:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

Y'all still casting a movie huh?
posted by DynamiteToast at 2:27 PM on November 1

You will be played by Stephen Furst.
posted by petebest at 2:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

let us revel in the frenzy of POLL MADNESS

All states are battlegrounds! Everything is in play! The aggregators aggregate themselves into recursive fractal horrors! The jagged trend lines spiral into an endless void! Here crouches Nate Silver on a mound of burritos and skulls, gibbering of Unknowable Internals with which he could achieve perfect gnosis and create a model that forecasts all elections that have ever been or ever will be! Oh god, he's eating Harry Enten's face! What is that silhouette!? Oh no...no...it's Sam Wang, and he has been...unskewed! O polls! O election! Deliver us! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [35 favorites]

Daniel Dale is clearly slipping into the throes of sheer madness after so many weeks on the road following the Trump campaign and fact-checking Trump lies:

"This is a rare feeling, but it feels like we need more polls."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:46 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

The $20,000 painting [of Trump] whereabouts are not publicly known.

National Treasure 3 is so lame.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:49 PM on November 1, 2016 [24 favorites]

I think that I'm having this weird thing where when the election stresses me out it like sends a Nog signal and then through space the following ear worm is inserted into my brain:

DO DO DO MAR-CO RUBIO MAR-CO RUBIO DO DO DO MAR-CO RUBIO MARCO RUBIO.

It's like my brain is all *help reality bad visit puppet land ahhh* DO DO DO MAR-CO etc.
posted by angrycat at 2:55 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

There is a Daybreaker (a sober, 7-9 am dance party) the morning after Election Day in NYC if anyone else is going to need to be working off stress.
posted by shothotbot at 2:55 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Marla report: Marla Maples has opened her own website.

But I can't find the link with the page that has all the tax returns?
posted by sallybrown at 2:56 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

I basically said it before, but someday Owen Wilson will win an Oscar for his portrayal of Trump.
posted by snofoam at 2:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

NOOOOOOO NOT DIGNAN
posted by pxe2000 at 3:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Eh, in my perfect world Trump will be as relevant as Sarah Palin this time next year.

And given my life's tendency to do Monkey's Paw wish grants, we'll probably be dealing with something much, much worse by then.
posted by Mooski at 3:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Moody's Analytics predicts a Clinton 332 - Trump 206 election on the basis of political and economic factors: "The economic factors in the Moody's model are: Two-year change in real household income, real home price growth and gas prices. The political factors are the two-year change in the president's approval rating, political fatigue (some states have a tendency to switch party votes every few yeas), and how Democratic-leaning a state is."

(I may be wrong but I believe that electoral vote distribution is the same as Obama-Romney 2012?)
posted by sallybrown at 3:05 PM on November 1, 2016

(Fun fact: The George Bush Family won that golf family of the year award in 1991.)

Including Jeb!?
posted by vbfg at 3:06 PM on November 1, 2016

Anglophone Canadians might refer to their MP and their MPP

Anglophone Ontarians, you mean. Literally every other province calls them something different. MLAs, mostly. Newfoundland and Labrador has MHAs (and Quebec has MNAs). Ontario is the only province with a parliament, the rest have assemblies.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Eh, in my perfect world Trump will be as relevant as Sarah Palin this time next year.

And given my life's tendency to do Monkey's Paw wish grants, we'll probably be dealing with something much, much worse by then.

They'll be co-Emperors of America.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 3:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

> "(I may be wrong but I believe that electoral vote distribution is the same as Obama-Romney 2012?)"

It is.
posted by kyrademon at 3:08 PM on November 1, 2016

The Texas Tribune has been updating the still unfolding thrilling saga of the Sid Miller c-word tweet:

(1:58 PM) Just in: A tweet sent from Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller's account called @HillaryClinton the c-word.
(2:14 PM) Just in: Sid Miller is now saying his Twitter account was hacked.
(2:22 PM) This is getting even more confusing. Sid Miller's tweet saying his account has been hacked has since been deleted.
(2:32 PM) Turns out Sid Miller's account was not hacked after all:
Though Miller's staff first claimed via Twitter that he had been hacked, they later released a statement saying his campaign had "inadvertently retweeted a tweet that they were not aware contained a derogatory term."
(2:59 PM) Just in: @GregAbbott_TX says language in Sid Miller’s c-word tweet is "reprehensible and is an embarrassment.”

posted by Atom Eyes at 3:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [37 favorites]

God, I'd almost forgive Jeb! for everything he's done if he ran again in 2020 but changed his campaign slogan to Jeb!? You can just hear the record scratch/Scooby Doo confusion noise each time you read it.
posted by Existential Dread at 3:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

CNN ticker has something about Bill's emails from 2000. We don't have sound on. This is another nothingburger story, right?
posted by pxe2000 at 3:18 PM on November 1, 2016

The lead story tonight on "All Things Considered" is "Reports Raise New Speculation About Trump's Alleged Ties To Russia". (MP3 link) Their conclusion is basically, "a lot of smoke, no smoking gun ... yet."

AFAIK ATC is the most watched or listened to news program on broadcast.
posted by msalt at 3:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

CNN ticker has something about Bill's emails from 2000. We don't have sound on. This is another nothingburger story, right?

It's the nothing of nothingburgers in terms of the campaign. It's a "what the fuck was the FBI thinking" on their side.
posted by Talez at 3:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

My JCPL is up up up - Hillary Clinton headed to Detroit for a GOTV (twitter). Why is she going back to MI???
posted by sallybrown at 3:23 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Atom Eyes: "The Texas Tribune has been updating the still unfolding thrilling saga of the Sid Miller c-word tweet:"

(3:03 PM) Sid Miller swears he saw an older Texas Agriculture Commissioner say it first
posted by boo_radley at 3:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

Because she needs a break and MI has excellent breweries.
posted by ghost phoneme at 3:25 PM on November 1, 2016 [20 favorites]

mandolin conspiracy: carrot induced tinting knowledge

Okay then. My sister used to have a skin condition, which made her uncomfortable and she tried a lot of different remedies. One of them was to ingest a kilogram of carrots a day, every day. They could be eaten, or made into juice.
Long story short: consuming that many carrots will make you Trumpily, gloriously orange. All over. Lower eyelids included.
The skin condition did not improve. Sad!

Carotenemia: not just for children!
posted by winna at 3:27 PM on November 1, 2016

My JCPL is up up up - Hillary Clinton headed to Detroit for a GOTV (twitter). Why is she going back to MI???

I was just about to post something that will make you feel better. New poll just out.

@ThePlumLineGS
New Fox 2/Detroit Mitchell poll of Michigan:

Clinton 50
Trump 43
Johnson 4

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/214932733-story

----

And she's currently up 6.6% at RCP, and that's without this 7% poll. And she's hasn't been below a 5% lead in the last 14 polls. And hasn't trailed since 33 polls ago (down by 1), which is the only time she's trailed. This is for GOTV and downballot.
posted by chris24 at 3:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

President Obama on Hillary Clinton, Columbus, OH today (via twitter):

"I know that my wife is not just my equal but my superior. I want every man out there to kinda look inside yourself and ask yourself, if you're having problems with this stuff how much of it is that we're just not used to it? So that you know, when a guy is ambitious and out in the public arena and working hard, well that's okay, but when a woman suddenly does it, suddenly you're all like, well, why's she doing that? I'm just being honest. I want you to think about it because she is so much better qualified than the other guy. She has conducted herself so much better in public life than the other guy. That this notion that somehow it's hard to choose, it shouldn't be."

Wow.
posted by sallybrown at 3:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [165 favorites]

the hottest computer game of late 2016 is Sid Miller's C-wordification
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

prize bull octorok: "the hottest computer game of late 2016 is Sid Miller's C-wordification"

It's got everything: Texans, lying, desperate claims of hacking, screenshots of deleted tweets...
posted by boo_radley at 3:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'd just like to point out that election day is next Tuesday. And I hope I will see you all at the polls.
posted by melissasaurus at 3:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'd just like to point out that election day is next Tuesday. And I hope I will see you all at the polls.

i just want to tell you good luck. we're all counting on you.
posted by entropicamericana at 3:39 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

> Eh, in my perfect world Trump will be as relevant as Sarah Palin this time next year.

And given my life's tendency to do Monkey's Paw wish grants, we'll probably be dealing with something much, much worse by then.

If in the near future you find yourself in a hip club in a VR space and meet Peter Thiel's avatar, and if he asks you to look at an animation he made, you should definitely not look at it. at the very least, look away before the image turns all staticky.

Also right now might be a good time to brush up on your ancient Sumerian just saying.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

Having submitted my ballot more than a week ago, I intend to be nowhere near my polling place. However, I will be wearing my "I VOTED" sticker, which I put in a safe place.
posted by Lexica at 3:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

My JCPL is up up up - Hillary Clinton headed to Detroit for a GOTV (twitter). Why is she going back to MI???

Simple. There are at least half a dozen star players on the Clinton team - Clinton H, Clinton B, Kaine, Sanders, Obama B, Obama M, and Warren. Possibly also Biden. There are two star players on the Trump team - Trump (D) and Pence - and I'm not sure Pence has the pulling power of any of that Clinton roster. This means that when you want to keep the game from changing you practice man to man marking just in case - and you still have an absurd overlap.

I would be disappointed in the campaign if they didn't dispatch a heavy hitter or even two to every state Trump visited to make a play at even if they thought it was a longshot by Trump. Countering every play even as they have a further four people to take the offensive.
posted by Francis at 3:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

Voted early today! Mr Sunny voted this past weekend without me, so our house has now done what we can.

I put my sticker on the front door!!!
posted by annsunny at 3:42 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

I'm pretty sure I'm bumping my vote up to tomorrow, instead of Tuesday. I had originally planned to go out on election day to "experience it", but I've since realized that making sure the day-of goes as smoothly as possible (by getting a vote out of the way that can be completed early) is more courteous to the poll workers. I think it might also help me to deal with the huge amount of anxiety over this election, and free me up for what should be a very fun and relaxing weekend ahead.
posted by codacorolla at 3:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

It feels good to vote early! I promise - you get the same charge out of it. You don't feel like you missed out. I am a very experience-oriented person (I want to do it on the real election day!!!) and I don't feel sad that I voted early.
posted by sallybrown at 3:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

A Toddler Trump Destroys the Oval Office
posted by kirkaracha at 3:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Michigan also has several House seats that could be put in play - specifically, per Sabato's Crystal Ball, MI-7 and MI-8.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

Here's my hope for Trump post-election. Assuming Clinton wins (and I only avoid typing "when Clinton wins" or "after Clinton wins" to avoid tempting he wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing), I believe that in about ten years time, it will be impossible to find anyone who admits they voted for him. Like you know how the legend is that the Sex Pistols initially performed to like 200 people but now 2 million people claim to have been at their first gig? Sort of like that in reverse. Like in ten years, his supporters are so embarrassed that they all claim they voted for Johnson or didn't vote or even that they voted for Clinton. I hope that the people who can't feasibly deny they were supporters (like Gingrich) split into groups that still claim they didn't vote for him and groups that say "Let's not talk about the past."

As for Trump, I feel like he's already gone through something like the characters in the Twilight Zone episode The Masks in that his face reflects the rot in his soul. I hope that his face remains synonymous with the hatred he helped stir up this past year and a half.

So my hope isn't very generous to Trump.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

codacorolla: same here: usually vote election day for the experience, but i voted early this time in case of long lines on the day of / to help momentum / in case i get hit by a dirigible / etc and still feel darn good about it. this also gives me more time next tuesday for beer and nachos.
posted by entropicamericana at 3:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

I tend to consider myself pretty MeFi Poli-Savvy but you guys can't possibly be talking about the Jersey Central Power and Light company can you? Or is this some 21st century Boss Tweed machine politics shit going on involving utilities that I'm just now learning about?
posted by Senor Cardgage at 3:58 PM on November 1, 2016

I believe that in about ten years time, it will be impossible to find anyone who admits they voted for him.
In the late 70s, it was hard to find anyone who admitted they voted for Nixon (Including future Reagan lovers). It must be noted that he WON twice, the second by a landslide.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:58 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I tend to consider myself pretty MeFi Poli-Savvy but you guys can't possibly be talking about the Jersey Central Power and Light company can you? Or is this some 21st century Boss Tweed machine politics shit going on involving utilities that I'm just now learning about?

It's "Justinian's Current Panic Level."
posted by cashman at 3:59 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

"That this notion that somehow it's hard to choose, it shouldn't be."

As much as I wish the man the peace that must comes with getting out of that shit hole, God do I hope he has something of a plan to stay in the public eye.
posted by angrycat at 3:59 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

A potential future path for post-Trump politics by The American Conservative - "A Different Conservatism"

There was an American conservatism before Reaganism burst onto the scene in the latter half of the 20th century, and there will be an American conservatism after it fades from view. The American Solidarity Party is betting that the next iteration of the American right will resemble a purified Trumpism.

The party was formed in 2011 as the Christian Democracy Party USA, and like Europe’s Christian Democratic parties, it embraces a certain form of the welfare state while maintaining socially conservative positions on abortion, marriage, and family. That combination of traditionalism and solidarity with the poor bears a certain resemblance to the message that has swept Trump to the summit of the conservative movement, but party leaders stress that on a principled level they have little in common with the Republican nominee.

...

The Solidarists also diverge sharply from Trump on a number of his signature issues. One is immigration: the ASP platform calls unabashedly for amnesty, takes a jab at border walls, and implies that global inequality makes immigration “a necessity” for many workers. The party also criticizes the tough-on-crime approach that Trump has adopted since the Republican National Convention and condemns torture. And whereas Trump dismays conservatives by promising to fix social dysfunction through government action and executive fiat, the Solidarists insist on subsidiarity. While they call for the establishment of a single-payer health-care system, for example, they stress that it would be administered by the states.

“[Trump] is the best thing that has ever happened to American democracy,” Azarvan said. However, he adds, that’s not because of any of the Donald’s ideas—it’s because he’s so universally hated that he’s forcing principled conservatives to seek other options. Trump may have brought a version of the politics of solidarity into the American mainstream, but the ASP rejects the aspects of his program that have been linked to white racial resentment. For the Solidarists, then, a great deal hangs on the question of what exactly is motivating Trump supporters: economic anxiety or racial animus?

ASP presidential nominee Mike Maturen told me he thinks his party actually lines up better with Middle America’s prevailing political sentiments than do either of the major parties. “Mainstream America would be sort of center-right on social issues and sort of center-left on fiscal issues,” he said. “The problem is, they don’t know we exist.”

Azarvan is less sanguine. “We are in the minority, just based on what I’ve looked at,” he said. “At the same time I think it’s just a matter of consciousness-raising. Once they discover we exist, those who otherwise thought that they were liberal or conservative might come to see that they are, in fact, Christian Democratic in their ideology.” That was Maturen’s experience; a lifelong Republican, he discovered the party while he was in the depths of the kind of political malaise that many conservatives are experiencing right now. In any case, the ASP has experienced what Maturen called “almost geometric growth” since this year’s election cycle began in earnest. “Pope Francis being so vocal about taking care of the poor and cherishing life from conception to natural death might have more people thinking along those lines,” he said, adding that the lack of “palatable options” in the mainstream is probably responsible for much of this year’s growth.

...

In Michel Houellebecq’s novel Soumission, Muslim French president Mohammed Ben Abbes’s anti-liberal policy program includes a revival of distributism. For the anti-liberal Houellebecq, a localized, communitarian economic system is the natural alternative to the West’s failed hyper-individualism. In other words, in the age of liberalism’s crisis, the future seems to belong to solidarity. The question is whether the solidarity of the future will look more like Trumpian ethno-nationalism or the ASP’s vision for an economic and cultural localism uncolored by parochial prejudice.

Some people will also ask whether the latter is even possible, especially in a secular state. Until quite recently, Christian Democratic parties seemed to be prospering in post-Christian Europe, but the latest wave of immigration is demonstrating that for many people, economic solidarity has its basis in blood ties. Still, notions of identity change quickly, and the U.S. has always been less of an ethno-state than its European counterparts. So as neoliberalism flounders around the globe, you can’t fault Maturen & Co. for believing that Christian democracy has a part to play in whatever political alignment emerges from the present American crisis.

Disclaimer: judging by the state ballots that the ASP presidential ticket is available on and cross-referenced with 538's list of swing states, their presence would, in the worst-case, affect Michigan and Pennsylvania, but those two Clinton already have a substantial margin. Not to mention, Maturen and Muñoz are very likely to get fewer votes than, say, Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party, never mind McMullin, Stein, and Johnson, so I doubt they're in danger of Nadering any election anytime soon. Bringing them up is less about "look hey another third party people should vote for" and more about "the existence of this third party highlights one underrepresented segment of the political compass which will become increasingly important."
posted by Apocryphon at 4:00 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Why is she going back to MI?

What they said upthread, but also because eventually you run out of places to visit in the top-tier battleground states without retreading your own steps. Three stops in Florida today; out west tomorrow; NC on Thursday; Midwest on Friday ending in Cleveland with Jay-Z, Saturday back to Philly. Time is the currency here: where can you get a big turnout and a location booked at short notice that minimises the amount of ground travel?

(POTUS also has two stops in FL on Thursday and two in NC on Friday. No point in having them tread on each other's toes.)
posted by holgate at 4:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

"the hottest computer game of late 2016 is Sid Miller's C-wordification"

Upending reigning champ Sid Dithers' CTA: San Fransiske Nights
posted by Senor Cardgage at 4:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Still crossing my fingers that America's Dad will return to NH...
posted by pxe2000 at 4:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh Pat Bagley, you are the best! Trumpski and his puppet master.
posted by Oyéah at 4:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Interesting article from the Post about the pluses and minuses of Trump's strategy of telling those who've early/absentee voted in certain states to go change their vote.
posted by sallybrown at 4:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

I ended up having to block my dad on Facebook today. I feel bad and he'll probably be hurt, but he keeps posting anti-Clinton memes. I've been stewing in rage all afternoon after the last couple. I've always known he was conservative, but I didn't think he was a racist. Just one of those people who whines about taxes. It hurts a lot to find out otherwise. Hopefully we can heal our relationship after the election, but I don't know how to look at him the same way anymore.
posted by downtohisturtles at 4:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [56 favorites]

@JuddLegum: I fixed Comey's letter
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

The KKK’s official newspaper has endorsed Donald Trump for president
posted by kirkaracha at 4:10 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

> "Michigan also has several House seats that could be put in play - specifically, per Sabato's Crystal Ball, MI-7 and MI-8."

MI-1 even more so, I think.
posted by kyrademon at 4:13 PM on November 1, 2016

I ended up having to block my dad on Facebook today. I feel bad and he'll probably be hurt, but he keeps posting anti-Clinton memes. I've been stewing in rage all afternoon after the last couple. I've always known he was conservative, but I didn't think he was a racist.

I'm so sorry, downtohisturtles. That really sucks.
posted by msalt at 4:13 PM on November 1, 2016 [25 favorites]

One thing I would like to see more discussion/analysis of - there has been a lot of Twitter and pundit prognosticating about how Trump's campaign is a slippery slope for the Republican party and democracy - this tweet is what brought this to my mind.

But how does this concept intersect with what we know about Trump's base? They are old. The older you get, the higher Trump's support goes. And Trump is thoroughly despised by a huge majority of young people. Trump may be breaking down the walls of decency among his people, but time marches on and that base is getting closer and closer to the end of the road, being replaced by a generation that wants nothing to do with Trump. So yes, he's starting a huge garbage fire in the Republican party garbage can, but that can is on a sheet of ice that's breaking away from land and drifting out to sea...
posted by sallybrown at 4:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm looking at that poll today showing Trump +7 in North Carolina with SIGNIFICANT SIDEEYE.

No.
posted by Justinian at 4:17 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

i've literally been reading this thread all month

im so tired
posted by poffin boffin at 4:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [71 favorites]

Go take a wee dram and a nap then.
posted by Namlit at 4:19 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

The most important thing to know about the JCPL is that Clinton and her campaign don't even have one, it's just a Constant Grim Determination Level.
posted by skewed at 4:20 PM on November 1, 2016 [46 favorites]

I'm looking at that poll today showing Trump +7 in North Carolina with SIGNIFICANT SIDEEYE.

Same pollster has Clinton up 6 in Ohio. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by chris24 at 4:21 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

The most important thing to know about the JCPL is that Clinton and her campaign don't even have one, it's just a Constant Grim Determination Level.

In the grim darkness of 2016, there is only ~~war~~ this fucking election.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [33 favorites]

Btw, here's the listing of House seats to keep an eye on: Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I just got an email from "Eric Trump"--yes, I finally managed to get on that mailing list, for purely educational purposes--inviting me to pay him money for a chance to join his family in NYC on election night.

So both candidates are having election night parties in New York. Hillary's party is in the Javits Center, with its glass ceiling and learn-to-love-it design, and Trump's will probably be in Trump Tower. (I know it won't be in one of the outer boroughs, because he has a deepseated bridge-and-tunnel complex.)

New York is fighting over the deep implications of a 30-minute subway trip and dragging the rest of the country along.
posted by Leslie Knope at 4:37 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Guys, new poll aggregator! It gets the Andrew Gelman Bayesian Seal of Approval and is also open-source, unlike 538.

(Spoiler alert, it has P(Clinton wins the Electoral College) at 91%)
posted by en forme de poire at 4:38 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

So, msalt I posted on twitter. '12 women have come forward to publicly say that Donald Trump molested them.
And he admitted that he does that and gets away with it because he's famous.' I reworded it to fit the twitter size restrictions.
posted by Gadgetenvy at 4:39 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Trump may be breaking down the walls of decency among his people, but time marches on and that base is getting closer and closer to the end of the road, being replaced by a generation that wants nothing to do with Trump

dunno sallybrown; I feel like people have been saying that sorta thing since at least the sixties, but we still have extremist conservatism. People tend to get more reactionary as they get older.
posted by aspersioncast at 4:39 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Jess just texted me a poll showing Clinton behind by one. She's apparently trying to kill us all.
posted by xyzzy at 4:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm very concerned about the polls, because I believe there is a hidden group of Trump voters who won't answer polls, or won't answer them honestly, but will vote for him. I had really hoped Clinton would be up much more significantly a week before the election. I don't buy studies that use things like economic conditions and approval of the President. That's the kind of thinking that made a lot of Brexit experts get it wrong.

That said, perhaps close polls are a good thing because they might encourage higher turnout, which benefits Clinton.
posted by cell divide at 4:43 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

aspersioncast: dunno sallybrown; I feel like people have been saying that sorta thing since at least the sixties, but we still have extremist conservatism. People tend to get more reactionary as they get older.

On the other hand, we have gay marriage, a black president, and the next president is almost certainly going to be a woman. So, while all social conservatism didn't end or anything, you can't really say we haven't made huge progress.
posted by Mitrovarr at 4:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

Clinton and her campaign don't even have one, it's just a Constant Grim Determination Level.

Hillary Clinton has no time for performative despair. She outsources that to her email team, who package it up and send it out 7 or so times a day, suggesting to the reader that the most recent disturbing poll out of $BATTLEGROUND_STATE is the end for all that we hold sacred, unless you can dig deeper into your pockets and find a Benjamin or three to help fight the Orange Menace.
posted by jackbishop at 4:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

Has there been an updated Where My Money Can Do The Most Good consensus?
posted by prefpara at 4:46 PM on November 1, 2016

kyrademon: "There are steps the Supreme Court can take to defend itself, if they're willing, especially if they have an executive branch on their side willing to get down and dirty in the trenches for it."

Can someone expand on this? What options are there if the Senate stays red and won't confirm any nominees?
posted by Chrysostom at 4:47 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Read that bit in Latin that seems like an incantation

trump delenda est
trump delenda est
trump delenda est
posted by pyramid termite at 4:47 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

> Also right now might be a good time to brush up on your ancient Sumerian just saying.

tur-ra-na muc mi-ni-in-ga amac-a-na lil-e
posted by languagehat at 4:48 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

I'm very concerned about the polls, because I believe there is a hidden group of Trump voters who won't answer polls

There’s No Evidence Of The ‘Bradley Effect’ In Trump Polls

TL;DR He has consistently underperformed his polls.
posted by chris24 at 4:50 PM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

Seeking casting suggestions for the candidates' families and candidates for director. Dark Comedy is the only possible choice for genre.

The thread seems to have moved past this game but damn it I was at work. And personally, I take every available opportunity to point out the uncanny resemblance of Paul Ryan and Enver Gjokaj. If you've ever watched Dollhouse you'll know that Enver Gjokaj is also a world class mimic. Indeed, I cannot entirely rule out the possibility that Paul Ryan and Enver Gjokaj are the same person.
posted by galaxy rise at 4:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

koeselitz, you got my first favorite on my first day as a registered user. (After ~14 years of lurking.)
posted by BS Artisan at 5:22 PM on November 1

I've seen a bunch of us long time lurkers signing up this election season. I wish I'd kept a list. (Early 2001 here.)

Post your story on MetaFilter Memories. I keep meaning to post mine.
posted by Surely This at 4:54 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

This is great: If Congress was your co-worker (Save the Day ad w/Chris Pine)
posted by salix at 4:56 PM on November 1, 2016 [33 favorites]

I thought I was up with the news, but I just found out that Christie fetching McDonalds for Trump was a real thing that really happened. Poor Reek.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

Btw, here's the listing of House seats to keep an eye on: Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato.

They have NY-23 as likely republican, which is killing me because Tom Reed is a Trumpite who has never visited the biggest city in his district (Ithaca), because he knows he'd get driven out of town.
posted by waitingtoderail at 4:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

ChurchHatesTucker: I thought I was up with the news, but I just found out that Christie fetching McDonalds for Trump was a real thing that really happened. Poor Reek.

Thanks for the first election-related laugh I have had all day. Now where's Sansa Stark when we need her?
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:03 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

What options are there if the Senate stays red and won't confirm any nominees?

One option floated was that refusing to consider implies consent. That would be contested, and be fast tracked to the USSC.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:04 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

downtohisturtles, I am so sorry it's come to this :( I will be so glad when this election ends. Please take care of yourself. As time passes, perhaps you and your Dad can make peace. You are not wrong in your action and your own views and beliefs deserve respect. Please remember that.
posted by Silverstone at 5:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

Big news from a few of my Stein-supporting friends: Her statement about John Oliver has led them to decide they can't vote for her. They're be voting Clinton with reluctance but they just can't support Stein now. I have no idea why this is the straw that broke their camel's back, but the back is broken. Anyone else seeing this or is it just an extremely localized phenomenon?
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [54 favorites]

MI-1 even more so, I think.

She'd be better off campaigning in Green Bay if that's where she's trying to target.

fun fact: Michigan is fucking huge -- parts of MI-1 (the massive district covering the U.P. and Northern Lower) are actually further from Detroit, as the crow flies, than Detroit is from Washington, DC.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

> "Can someone expand on this? What options are there if the Senate stays red and won't confirm any nominees?"

There's a couple of possibilities. First, there's recess appointments. Currently, these are very hard to make because the Senate plays a little game where it's technically in session almost all the time. What if the President says, nah, that doesn't count any more, since there's no quorum I'm making a recess appointment anyway right now. The Senate says, hey, you can't do that. The President says, yes I can. Who gets to decide which of them is right? Ultimately, if need be, the Supreme Court.

Or, there's the one that ChurchHatesTucker brought up. The Senate refuses to even bring a nominee to a vote. The President says, OK, the Constitution says I need your advice and consent. I've heard your advice and I'm taking your silence as consent. The Senate says, hey, you can't do that. Who get to decide which of them is right? Yup.

Or let's say Congress passes a law saying the Supreme Court will now consist of seven judges, and overrides a presidential veto. Who gets to decide on the Constitutionality of that law?

Now, for all of these to work, it requires a President who's willing to play hardball AND a Court with a majority that decides protecting its role is more important than right-wing partisanship -- not at all guaranteed. The process would be ugly and would basically be an internecine war among all the branches of government. But if the Court is sufficiently motivated, they're the ones who get to say what the Constitution means.
posted by kyrademon at 5:14 PM on November 1, 2016 [32 favorites]

Well, I don't know if most people have the same misconception that I did, but Michigan was always further west in my mind's eye than in reality, so part of the astonishment there before I moved here would be that Michigan just isn't that far from DC to begin with. I mean, I'm fairly close to being due north of Atlanta, and I'm in the western part of the state. Detroit is due north of Tampa. Whaaaaat?!?!
posted by LionIndex at 5:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

A callback to happier times for those who are panicking: Hillary Shimmy Song.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I've been legitimately concerned about this all day. Did Samantha Bee really go to Moscow and interview actual professional Russian trolls wearing ski masks? Because if she did, that's fairly crazy and I'm not sure why that's not the #1 thing anybody is talking about right now. She does comedy, except it would be kind of weird and racist if it was fake and other people thought it was real.
posted by zachlipton at 5:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [26 favorites]

> "Did Samantha Bee really go to Moscow and interview actual professional Russian trolls wearing ski masks?"

I'm pretty sure it's real. And that it's some of the best reporting I've seen all year.
posted by kyrademon at 5:21 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

Then why is everyone still talking about EMAILS when we have video of Russians in ski masks?
posted by zachlipton at 5:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

Now where's Sansa Stark when we need her?

Sansa Stark (Jeyne Poole in the books) is Meredith, obv.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:24 PM on November 1, 2016

I haven't seen the Sam Bee piece yet but if it's about paid Russian troll farms shitposting on behalf of Trump and the alt-right, that's already a known thing.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

downtohisturtles, I'm so sorry. It really hurts when it's your own family, doesn't it? Keep in mind what Silverstone said: As time passes, perhaps you and your Dad can make peace. You are not wrong in your action and your own views and beliefs deserve respect.

Also, for now it might help to throw some pie on the floor, any floor. Lemon meringue works especially well.
posted by a fish out of water at 5:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

This is getting even more confusing. Sid Miller's tweet saying his account has been hacked has since been deleted.

The directors of the firm hired to continue the credits after the other people had been sacked, wish it to be known that they have just been sacked.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:35 PM on November 1, 2016 [28 favorites]

Daily Beast Why Donald Trump May Never Pay Federal Income Tax Again

What I can now report is that Trump is not restricted to using or losing his tax losses over 19 years but can offset income for as long as he lives.

Based on his 1995 income, Trump could enjoy 47 years of income-tax-free living. That would cover Trump until 2042, when he would turn 96.

But even that understates the situation. As a real estate owner Trump can acquire still more tax losses under liberal rules set by Congress—rules Trump lobbied for—that apply only to full-time managers of their own investment real estate. This means Trump could enjoy a much larger income than the $19 million he reported on his 1995 Connecticut nonresident tax form in future years and still pay no income taxes.

Because of the documents in the latest Times report, it is now beyond question that Trump benefitted from an opinion by Justice Clarence Thomas in a 2001 Supreme Court case infamous in tax circles because it approved the creation of tax losses out of thin air.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

Regarding the Supreme Court, it also really bugs me that any news organization, anywhere, did not report it as, "The obvious fucking liars running the Senate are making up flimsy excuses to stonewall a Supreme Court nominee in the hopes that they can pull it off for a full fucking year so Donald Trump can nominate his horse, or for five years or nine years or however many years it takes if that doesn't pan out, because they don't actually give a shit about the necessary functions of the U.S. government."
posted by kyrademon at 5:43 PM on November 1, 2016 [32 favorites]

The Independent The real Donald Trump: a bully, fraud and incompetent who has wrecked countless lives

Dust swirled and jackhammers pounded outside the Bonwit Teller building in Manhattan as undocumented immigrants tore apart the facade. It was 5 June 1980, and a sense of bitterness hung over the work site that afternoon: paychecks were often weeks late, but since the Poles didn’t have legal status in the United States, there was little they could do about it.

The exterior they were destroying was an architectural masterpiece – bronze, platinum, hammered aluminium, glazed ceramic and tinted glass that shimmered like jewellery. Many New Yorkers had hoped the grandest portion would survive. Curators from the Metropolitan Museum of Art had asked the developer to carefully remove the two bas-relief sculpture panels so they could be restored and put on public display. But that afternoon, the labourers, acting on orders from the developer, smashed the 50-year-old art deco panels into a rubble of stone, pebble and dirt.

The desecration horrified Manhattan’s art community, but the developer, a brash 34-year-old named Donald Trump, dismissed the criticism – pretending to be his own spokesman, “John Barron”, as he talked to reporters by phone. Saving the panels would have cost him $32,000 each, he said, and delayed work for a few days on his $100m project, Trump Tower. Besides, he declared, he knew more than the curators – the panels had no artistic merit and little financial value.

This incident from long before Trump became a household name is an ideal exemplar for his business career, in which he has repeatedly left bitterness and ruin in his wake. His destructive behaviour – spurred by recklessness, arrogance and an unslakable thirst for vengeance – has victimised cities, businesses, investors, partners, even members of his own family. Trump is now completing his biggest and most astonishing demolition: tearing down the Republican Party.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [76 favorites]

Why throw pie on the floor when you can eat it? What is this world coming to?

Relevant: Tina Fey and Ina Garten, the Barefoot Contessa, discuss election-related stress eating.
posted by sallybrown at 5:58 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

Indeed, I cannot entirely rule out the possibility that Paul Ryan and Enver Gjokaj are the same person.

Hmm, could be a good candidate but his eyes may not be quite the same color, though they do share a certain... engaging quality

Flagged for 'further research required'
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:02 PM on November 1, 2016

You know what this election needs? Another lawsuit.

NYTimes Clinton-Connected Consulting Firm Sues Republican Strategist Ed Rollins

Teneo, the corporate consulting firm with ties to the Clintons, filed papers to sue Ed Rollins, a veteran Republican strategist and chairman of a Donald J. Trump super PAC, for defamation and breach of contract over comments made about the firm in recent days.

According to a summons filed in New York State Supreme Court on Monday, the company said it would seek $10 million in damages from Mr. Rollins, who ran Ronald Reagan’s campaign in 1984 and now makes regular appearances on television, often on Fox News.

During a Friday appearance on “Lou Dobbs Tonight” on Fox Business, Mr. Rollins, a senior adviser at Teneo until this year, made comments cited by the company as defamatory and a breach of its contract because they included “confidential information,” according to the summons.

The company also cited Mr. Rollins’s statements to The New York Times for an article about the firm published last month.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 6:04 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

The desecration horrified Manhattan’s art community, but the developer, a brash 34-year-old named Donald Trump, dismissed the criticism – pretending to be his own spokesman, “John Barron”, as he talked to reporters by phone. Saving the panels would have cost him $32,000 each, he said, and delayed work for a few days on his $100m project, Trump Tower.

Four days later Donald Trump, speaking for himself, revised the $32,000 cost of saving those panels to over $500,000. Also destroyed was the Art Deco nickel and glass grillwork over the front entrance that he promised to be preserve.
posted by peeedro at 6:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

There's a couple of possibilities. First, there's recess appointments. Currently, these are very hard to make because the Senate plays a little game where it's technically in session almost all the time. What if the President says, nah, that doesn't count any more, since there's no quorum I'm making a recess appointment anyway right now. The Senate says, hey, you can't do that. The President says, yes I can. Who gets to decide which of them is right? Ultimately, if need be, the Supreme Court.

This isn't an option anymore, if it ever was. The Supreme Court just decided this in the Noel Canning v. NLRB case, the Senate defines when it is "in recess", not the President or anyone else.

The "silence is consent" option is also extremely dubious, as the Nominations and Appointment Clauses are separated.

Basically if the Republicans want to prevent any appointments, they can, and they can also leave the ball in Clinton's court as to who has to initiate the Constitutional crisis, at least until we're down several more Justices. The Court ruling on itself would be little better than admitting a crisis already exists, and wouldn't have much claim to legitimacy even assuming Roberts is more of an institutionalist or self-preservationist than he is a Republican hack, for which we have limited evidence.

There's only so much future planning that's possible, and the founders didn't adequately foresee that one half of the country would rather burn down the government than admit the other has any claim to governing legitimacy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:06 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Fair enough, T. D. Strange.

Oh, well. Better hope the sane party wins the Senate, I guess.
posted by kyrademon at 6:10 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

After watching the Rachel Maddow segment on voter suppression in North Carolina, I'm thinking of donating to the NAACP Legal Defense fund and asking that it go to voting rights.
posted by zutalors! at 6:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

The NYT homepage has a feature "How Much Suffering Can You Take?" It's about multiple triathlons in a row, not this election, but I'm not seeing a difference.

Which brings us to NYT Breaking: F.B.I.’s Email Disclosure Broke a Pattern Followed Even This Summer:

The F.B.I. and Justice Department faced a hard decision in two investigations this past summer that had the potential to rock the presidential election. The first case involved Donald J. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, and secretive business dealings in Ukraine. The second focused on Hillary Clinton’s relationships with donors to her family foundation.

At the urging of the Justice Department, the F.B.I. agreed not to actively pursue either case so close to the election, according to federal law enforcement officials.

Against this backdrop, the decision of the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, to send a letter to Congress last week about a renewed inquiry concerning Mrs. Clinton’s emails is not just a departure from longstanding policy; it has plunged the F.B.I. and the Justice Department directly into the election, precisely what Justice officials were trying to avoid.

posted by zachlipton at 6:17 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Relevant: Tina Fey and Ina Garten, the Barefoot Contessa, discuss election-related stress eating.

Related to the Relevant: I stress-bought a carbon steel frying pan today. It relieved the stress for about two hours and I am now right on the precipice of buying a vintage Harley. Next Tuesday needs to get here right now.
posted by NoMich at 6:17 PM on November 1, 2016 [23 favorites]

No Matter How You Cut It, Trump Is 3 Electoral Votes Short of a Path to Victory

Amid all the inevitable shock polls, it is instructive to look at the two candidates’ paths to actual victory in the Electoral College. And there, as has been the case for much of the general-election campaign, Clinton has the strategic advantage of many routes to 270 electoral votes, while Trump’s path is, well, problematic.

posted by kirkaracha at 6:19 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

I tell ya gang, I dropped off Facebook and Twitter, and changed identities here and about September of last year. And as the gg thing died down, and shit stopped coming at me, I've thought about returning to social media, but every time I do, something else happens that makes me realize the stress in my life would be so multiplied by wading thru the trumptastrophe memefields.

I'm so sorry for all of us that have lost friends, and family, and people we thought we knew to this multiyear wave of hate and bullying. Big hugs. We will make it through. And our Hillary will knopes the fuck out of this gig.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:20 PM on November 1, 2016 [43 favorites]

I stress-bought a carbon steel frying pan today. It relieved the stress for about two hours and I am now right on the precipice of buying a vintage Harley.

I stress-bought a white silk dress that I NEED to do election night suffragette-style. Winter white is hard!
posted by sallybrown at 6:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

heh.

Interesting: @realDonaldTrump @mike_pence campaign called several media outlets to find out who took his [Pence's] notes off podium after CW rally

media is gossiping about who took them, and all I'll say is: the "suspect" is NOT a member of the MSM!!

@mlwag1 I actually have no clue why they would care to the point of calling to find out

To recap the Monday Pence rally: power went out, mic went out and someone stole his notes

It was his stump speech, which he's given 8,000 times. Nobody seems to know why it falling into someone else's hands is important enough to start calling people to ask about it.
posted by zachlipton at 6:25 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

@EmersonPolling:
Post FBI news, Clinton holds on/improves in three ECPS polls (vs. previous)
Virginia +1
Illinois +6
Maine +1
More: http://theECPS.com
posted by chris24 at 6:26 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Okay I temporarily reached the end of this thread and I think I am comfortable saying that I have now given more thought and psychic energy anticipating this election than I did to the 1988 Christmas Day arrival of Super Mario Bros. 2.
posted by one_bean at 6:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

Interesting: @realDonaldTrump @mike_pence campaign called several media outlets to find out who took his [Pence's] notes off podium after CW rally

crayola

this is what happens when you don't make payments on your crayons
posted by pyramid termite at 6:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

You guys know that thing that's been going around about how Trump's chances of winning are less than the Cubs winning the World Series?

*Checks baseball score*

This is not helping my JCPL
posted by zachlipton at 6:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

My library traditionally has a kids' election on Election Day. This year we're not asking kids to choose between Clinton and Trump but instead offering them a blank ballot to choose anyone they want. After they vote they get one of those swell stickers. I'll be tallying up the votes that night, before heading home to sink my head in a glass on scotch.
posted by Biblio at 6:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

No word on Billy.

@llerer:
George P. Bush tells @apwillweissert that he's the only Bush to vote the GOP ticket. Both 41 & 43 "potentially" may go for Clinton, he says
posted by chris24 at 6:32 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

You guys know that thing that's been going around about how Trump's chances of winning are less than the Cubs winning the World Series?

Yeah I hate that Silver did that.
posted by cashman at 6:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yeah I hate that Silver did that.

He's also hyping Trump victory maps on twitter right now. Gotta get those sweet, sweet clicks.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:35 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

You know what would be awesome? A completely unexpected Cubs World Series victory *and* a completely expected Clinton presidential victory. Plus a Democratic Senate. Maybe that's our world a week from tomorrow. Isn't that amazing?

Excuse me now while I turn and spit and curse.
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [21 favorites]

@llerer:
George P. Bush tells @apwillweissert that he's the only Bush to vote the GOP ticket. Both 41 & 43 "potentially" may go for Clinton, he says

Why would he say that publicly? (Why would he vote for Trump?) This Bush's symbol is not ! but ?
posted by sallybrown at 6:37 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

@gdebenedetti:
Other thing to remember as Clinton visits MI & PA, where polls show her safeish: no early voting there, so important to jolt base pre-Nov 8.
posted by chris24 at 6:39 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

That tweet from Emerson is designed to give people heart attacks by stating comparative numbers to their last polls, not the actual horserace. (It's VA C+4, IL C+12, ME C+4. And it's still an iffy landline-only pollster.)

For once, Chuck Todd said something useful: there won't be as many high-tier polls this week because the news orgs aren't paying to commission them. Instead, I'd expect them to wait till the weekend and put them out as "final polls".
posted by holgate at 6:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

I will never forgive Dubya for, well, almost anything, but hearing that he may vote for HRC is somehow incredibly gratifying to me.
posted by xyzzy at 6:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [38 favorites]

The interesting bit in the NYT story is further down:

In August, around the same time the decision was made to keep the Manafort investigation at a low simmer, the F.B.I. grappled with whether to issue subpoenas in the Clinton Foundation case, which, like the Manafort matter, was in its preliminary stages. The investigation, based in New York, had not developed much evidence and was based mostly on information that had surfaced in news stories and the book “Clinton Cash,” according to several law enforcement officials briefed on the case.

The book asserted that foreign entities gave money to former President Bill Clinton and the Clinton Foundation, and in return received favors from the State Department when Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state. Mrs. Clinton has adamantly denied those claims.

In meetings, the Justice Department and senior F.B.I. officials agreed that making the Clinton Foundation investigation public could influence the presidential race and suggest they were favoring Mr. Trump. But waiting, they acknowledged, could open them up to criticism from Republicans, who were demanding an investigation.

They agreed to keep the case open but wait until after the election to determine their next steps. The move infuriated some agents, who thought that the F.B.I.’s leaders were reining them in because of politics.

So basically, a direct line from the Clinton attack machine into FBI investigations, a process that was only slowed down because some people suggested that issuing subpoenas based on partisan attacks in the middle of an election might be inappropriate.
posted by zachlipton at 6:40 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

You know what would be awesome? A completely unexpected Cubs World Series victory *and* a completely expected Clinton presidential victory. Plus a Democratic Senate. Maybe that's our world a week from tomorrow. Isn't that amazing?

Let's throw a completely unexpected Democratic House in there!
posted by TedW at 6:42 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

The Supreme Court just decided this in the Noel Canning v. NLRB case, the Senate defines when it is "in recess", not the President or anyone else.

By that definition, the USSC does. They don't change their minds often, but it does happen. I wonder what it would take for that to happen?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:42 PM on November 1, 2016

There's only so much future planning that's possible, and the founders didn't adequately foresee that one half of the country would rather burn down the government than admit the other has any claim to governing legitimacy.

Here is the thing - and this isn't directed at you so much as the idea that the Founder's couldn't have predicted this:

The hell they didn't. The entire history of the Republic, from Revolution through Reconstruction - to be generous - is the history of one side compromising and even ceding ground, in the name of exhaustion or unity or both, to a vocal and powerful minority wing dedicated to the maintenance of hateful systems build on corrupt scaffolds manned by useful idiots held in the thrall of horrible ideas. Generation after generation made compromises with horrible people in the name of a higher calling or of unity or whatever, and those costs will never stop coming due.

The thing is, I don't even have a dream of a solution. The terrifying thing about this SCOTUS madness, particularly, is that it's literally uncharted territory. IMHO, the track record for coming out of the other side of a bone fide Constitutional crisis undamaged is pretty poor, and the consequences are barely comprehensible in hindsight, much less capable of mitigation with foresight.
posted by absalom at 6:45 PM on November 1, 2016 [30 favorites]

So I get home and my Mom is freaking the f out because she's been watching MSNBC all night. I don't know what they've been saying but she said that Trump is gaining big time and now she's beside herself with worry, is stressed out and was practically crying when she was telling me about it.
I did what I could to calm her down with what I knew from before I went out. I got her to relax and change the channel. But wtf? What the hell are they doing? Is it really that bad today and I'm just missing it or in some sort of denial myself?

But now I sitting here feeling lots of generalized anger at everything I'm upset because my Mom is so upset and I'm having problems keeping all the reality vs bullshit straight in my mind.
posted by Jalliah at 6:45 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

I don't even have a dream of a solution

kayak, travelocity, etc.

I actually bailed already August 1992 . . . but I came back in 2000, like an idiot.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 6:48 PM on November 1, 2016

In August, around the same time the decision was made to keep the Manafort investigation at a low simmer, the F.B.I. grappled with whether to issue subpoenas in the Clinton Foundation case, which, like the Manafort matter, was in its preliminary stages. The investigation, based in New York, had not developed much evidence and was based mostly on information that had surfaced in news stories and the book “Clinton Cash,” according to several law enforcement officials briefed on the case.

This seems counter to what the NYT was saying last night in their piece downplaying Trump's Russia ties - that piece implied there was no there there by stating there was a developed investigation into Manafort, the Ukraine, Russia, and Trump (separate from the Russian hacking) but that the FBI hadn't found any ties between Manafort and Russia or Trump and Russia. It used this as a way to dismiss the Mother Jones and Slate stories.

Today's NYT piece acts like this Russia/Trump/Manafort case is still waiting to get off the ground because the DOJ and FBI put it on pause for fear of disrupting the election.

So which is it? And who leaked last night from the FBI, and why?
posted by sallybrown at 6:49 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

It's time to do what major league athletes do and are told to do.

Stay even. Don't get too high, don't get too low. Keep performing. The things that look great aren't as great as they seem, and the things that look terrible aren't as bad as they seem. Keep working. Keep doing what you're supposed to be doing. Stay in the moment. We have exactly a week left. Try not to go high with the highs and low with the lows. Stay even.
posted by cashman at 6:50 PM on November 1, 2016 [29 favorites]

it finally happened

i can't feel anything about this election at all

where was this blessed numbness nine months ago
posted by murphy slaw at 6:51 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

I actually bailed already August 1992 . . . but I came back in 2000, like an idiot.
So you basically missed most of the Bill Clinton Administration ... that doesn't speak well for the quality of your advice. [just pulling your leg]
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:52 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

The thing is, I don't even have a dream of a solution. The terrifying thing about this SCOTUS madness, particularly, is that it's literally uncharted territory.

SCOTUS has wrassled with some crazy things throughout our history and not just survived, but thrived. They delivered themselves Marbury v. Madison. I'm a pants-wetter about a lot of things politics-wise, but I have unshakeable faith that SCOTUS will find a way out of this one, by hook or by crook.
posted by sallybrown at 6:52 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

The hell they didn't. The entire history of the Republic, from Revolution through Reconstruction - to be generous - is the history of one side compromising and even ceding ground, in the name of exhaustion or unity or both, to a vocal and powerful minority wing dedicated to the maintenance of hateful systems build on corrupt scaffolds manned by useful idiots held in the thrall of horrible ideas.

and that's not all of it - shay's rebellion and the reaction of the elite to it at the time has strange echoes in our current day - people wanting the government to declare jubilee or elect those who would even things out in the name of economic justice and those who would thwart the "lazy and improvident" mob in their effort to overwhelm the republic with democracy - which, among many, was a dirty word

why let the rabble vote themselves free of their obligations to the bondholders and lenders?

we haven't changed as much as we think we have
posted by pyramid termite at 6:52 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

That tweet from Emerson is designed to give people heart attacks by stating comparative numbers to their last polls, not the actual horserace. (It's VA C+4, IL C+12, ME C+4.

Hmm, I thought it was pretty clear that it was talking the Comey effect and the change from her previous leads. Not that it was showing her actual leads. Or designed to cause fear. I interpreted the intent and effect as reassuring.
posted by chris24 at 6:55 PM on November 1, 2016

No Matter How You Cut It, Trump Is 3 Electoral Votes Short of a Path to Victory

Right, if the election was today. And if the election was two weeks ago Clinton would have won nearly 400 EV. The worry is that the trendlines continue and the election, which is not today but a week from now, is a toss-up with places where Clinton had a comfortable lead two weeks ago and a small lead today end up a dead heat or a narrow Trump win.

I think Clinton is going to win but the "Trump doesn't have 270 electoral votes!" thing never makes sense to me. No, he does not. Today. Which would be excellent if the election were today but is only good since the election is in a week and he is gaining.
posted by Justinian at 6:56 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

William Weld just spoke very movingly about Clinton on Rachel Maddow. Rachel pushed him on whether or not he would really tell a NC voter to vote Libertarian and he wouldn't answer, but did say that he's speaking up for HRC because someone needs to who isn't the DNC. Said he's known her for 40 years and she's an honest businesslike person.
posted by zutalors! at 6:58 PM on November 1, 2016 [61 favorites]

For the good of your blood pressure, DO NOT under any circumstances read the comments on the New York article linked upthread.
posted by pxe2000 at 7:06 PM on November 1, 2016

It was his stump speech, which he's given 8,000 times. Nobody seems to know why it falling into someone else's hands is important enough to start calling people to ask about it.

I like to believe it's his only copy.
posted by dersins at 7:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

Want to know how much Donald Trump isn't remotely in the same league as President Obama?

They were having a Trump event in Israel to rally US citizens there to vote for him, and Trump, after speaking with Ivanka, had a message to be placed in the Western Wall in the Old City of Jerusalem. He apparently dictated it. It read:

“May you bless the United States, our armed forces and our allies. May your guiding hand protect and strengthen our great nation.”

Meanwhile, Obama visited in 2008, and left this:

“Lord, protect my family and me. Forgive me my sins and help me guard against pride and despair. Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just. And make me an instrument of your will.”

posted by zachlipton at 7:08 PM on November 1, 2016 [94 favorites]

Susan Sarandon endorsed Dr. Stein (tweet).

Mark Harris, who write for New York Magazine: Old lady in my elevator: "You write about movies...what's with Susan Sarandon?" (twitter)

This entire country is just walking around thinking about this election.
posted by sallybrown at 7:08 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

God, I feel ya, Jalliah. This election has been absolute HELL on mamas.
posted by thebrokedown at 7:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

Want to know how much Donald Trump isn't remotely in the same league as President Obama?

How much time you got?
posted by dersins at 7:11 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Lawrence O'Donnel has an exclusive on a targetsmart/William & Mary survey of early voters in Florida. They've got Florida as 48-40 Clinton based on early voters.

28% of registered Republican voters voted for Hillary.
posted by nathan_teske at 7:11 PM on November 1, 2016 [60 favorites]

Meanwhile, last night, while we were all in Russia freakout mode, FOX News moved on to discussing the process a Congress that, *checks calendar*, hasn't been elected yet could use to impeach Clinton who, *checks Wikipedia*, hasn't been elected to anything yet. They've got a diagram showing the steps and everything. What even is this?
posted by zachlipton at 7:11 PM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

The worry is that the trendlines continue and the election, which is not today but a week from now, is a toss-up with places where Clinton had a comfortable lead two weeks ago and a small lead today end up a dead heat or a narrow Trump win.

What trendlines? Let's look at HuffPost Pollster. General Election: Trump vs. Clinton. Colorado. Florida. Nevada. North Carolina. Ohio. Pennsylvania. Those all look good for Clinton.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:13 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Your skills are fading with age, Ms. Sarandon.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 7:14 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Lawrence O'Donnel has an exclusive on a targetsmart/William & Mary survey of early voters in Florida. They've got Florida as 48-40 Clinton based on early voters.

28% of registered Republican voters voted for Hillary.

Anyone care to join mikelieman and me in the 400+ EV club?

^_^
\__/
posted by sallybrown at 7:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

Isn't there a tradition not to release exit polls until after the polls close? How is the Florida early voting survey different from that?
posted by medusa at 7:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Meanwhile, on Planet Stein, our favorite recycling committee chair wants to start a national conversation on oppressive comedians.

"We need to begin having honest conversations about the oppressive tactics corporate comedians continue to do towards already-marginalized groups of people.

This country was built on oppressing The Other (Blacks and indigenous people) and I’m not going to stand for more of this while we deal with major crises in this country that could determine whether we’ll even survive as a species."
posted by sleepy psychonaut at 7:18 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I like to think of the 400+EV club kind of like the mile high club. I'd join you but I feel like I have to sneak past airline attendants and make other passengers uncomfortable in my optimism.

Which I'm just not into, but I know the experience would be great.
posted by AlexiaSky at 7:20 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I participated in an exit poll tonight, that was mailed to me, this, after I had a lengthy phone interview that asked so many questions, really, including if I were a trans person. The poll is supposed to be the Utah Colleges Poll, but it is out of BYU. Tsk, tsk, again I was asked if I anything Mitt Romney, or if possibly McNuggets, then, again, are you trans? This was asked after I was asked about my sexual preference. Ha ha ha ha ha, BYU. Do you think they wear gloves when they handle the data that comes in?
posted by Oyéah at 7:21 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

Anyone care to join mikelieman and me in the 400+ EV club?

Hell, I'm already on my third drink.

For the superstitious among you, I pinkie-promise to spin around more than a few times (on the dance floor), curse plenty just for the fun of it, and spit on trump in effigy.
posted by perspicio at 7:23 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

medusa I think that's usually held up on the actual day of the election to a certain extent, but pretty sure exit polling in states with early voting has been going on for quite a while.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:23 PM on November 1, 2016

nathan_teske amazing report on Laurence O'Donnell I heard 48 to 40 as ultimate projected win tho. Early voters she has 53 with a 28% republican crossover. Full report in the morning
posted by madamjujujive at 7:23 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Lawrence O'Donnel has an exclusive on a targetsmart/William & Mary survey of early voters in Florida. They've got Florida as 48-40 Clinton based on early voters.

28% of registered Republican voters voted for Hillary.

So I just went downstairs to tell Mom this because she had turned off MSNBC and I knew this would make her feel better.

As I got to the bottom of the stairs "Jalli she's winning Florida! And blah blah Latino voters"
*sigh* She had change the channel back after I left. So yay at the de-stressing news MSNBC but gosh durnit Mom. I grabbed the remote and said okay how bout leave on thi good news and put on Murdoch Mysterys now. Before they say something that will upset you again. Okay? She started giggling at me and fist pumped the air. I HAVE NEVER SEEN MY MOTHER DO THIS.

This election has driven this household bonky.
posted by Jalliah at 7:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [67 favorites]

With regard to the FBI, this has become a state sanctioned witch and warlock hunt, searching for holes in the Democratic bucket, while ignoring the elephant that just broke everything in the china shop, and is now going after the windows downtown, and ordering a tank.

This is worse than desegregation days, with Hoover directing things from his closet, in argyle socks.
posted by Oyéah at 7:25 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

I’m more than half bonky myself, Jalliah, so I totally understand. Please give my love to your mother.
posted by nicepersonality at 7:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Although those may not exactly be exit polls in the strictest sense of the word, but maybe surveys of people marked off as "already voted?"

I'm sure someone knows more about this, but I def. remember this kind of information being available before previous elections.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:28 PM on November 1, 2016

That 28% number is insane. I can see how it might be the case, but it really beggars belief. I wonder how that trend holds in other states? I have to assume that number is coming from Florida's outsized population of Latin@ conservatives.
posted by codacorolla at 7:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

With regard to the FBI, this has become a state sanctioned witch and warlock hunt, searching for holes in the Democratic bucket, while ignoring the elephant that just broke everything in the china shop, and is now going after the windows downtown, and ordering a tank.

okay i know who i'm calling next time i need a metaphor thoroughly mixed
posted by murphy slaw at 7:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [37 favorites]

Anyone care to join mikelieman and me in the 400+ EV club?

That's been my position in PredictIt.org for a couple of weeks though I am less optimistic about it than I once was. Still not sure where to place my money in the Will Comey still have a job by the end of the year? contract.

Hmmm. Might be a good time to do some dollar-cost averaging since the market is freaking out a bit lately.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 7:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Anyone know if there's a chance that "the polls are tightening" because they exclude people who've already voted?
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Its been too long since my last hit of oppo. My brain is starting to make crazy shit up just to handle the come down. Here it is: The Russians gave Trump evidence about Ted Cruz's dad working with the KGB and Lee Harvey Oswald to kill JFK. This evidence was used to blackmail Cruz into endorsing Trump.
posted by humanfont at 7:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

Although those may not exactly be exit polls in the strictest sense of the word, but maybe surveys of people marked off as "already voted?"

targetsmart's CEO was the one providing the info. Their methodology is basically a finer grained election poll -- they know that person X has voted and contact them asking who they voted for and if they'd share some basic demographic data so they can use their survey to extrapolate to the entire early voting pool.

The full thing will be released tomorrow but MSNBC will probably have a clip up sometime after 11:00 PM eastern when Lawrence's show wraps up.
posted by nathan_teske at 7:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

That Florida poll? Clinton 55-37 up among people who have already voted. 42-42 among people who make it through the likely voter screen who haven't voted yet. Murphy 48-47 up among people who have already voted - but losing heavily among those who haven't who make it through the likely voter screen.

Here's hoping for Rubio's scalp!
posted by Francis at 7:33 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

Anyone know if there's a chance that "the polls are tightening" because they exclude people who've already voted?

Those polls would have the worst likely voter screens in the history of polling.
posted by dersins at 7:34 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Here's the press release for the TargetSmart/WM Florida survey of early voters.

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
posted by nathan_teske at 7:43 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Here is what we have from various stories, in chronological order, about the FBI's investigation of Trump's ties to Russia (other than the server issue):

Mother Jones:

- A former spy hired to do oppo for a firm funded by Republican candidate and then a Dem group, "near the start of July on his own initiative . . . sent a report he had written for that firm to a contact at the FBI." The memo "noted, "Russian regime has been cultivating, supporting and assisting TRUMP for at least 5 years. Aim, endorsed by PUTIN, has been to encourage splits and divisions in western alliance." It maintained that Trump "and his inner circle have accepted a regular flow of intelligence from the Kremlin, including on his Democratic and other political rivals." It claimed that Russian intelligence had "compromised" Trump during his visits to Moscow and could "blackmail him."

- "in August, they say, the FBI asked him for all information in his possession and for him to explain how the material had been gathered and to identify his sources. The former spy forwarded to the bureau several memos—some of which referred to members of Trump's inner circle. After that point, he continued to share information with the FBI. "It's quite clear there was or is a pretty substantial inquiry going on," he says."

- "In the letter Reid sent to Comey on Sunday, he pointed out that months ago he had asked the FBI director to release information on Trump's possible Russia ties. Since then, according to a Reid spokesman, Reid has been briefed several times. The spokesman adds, "He is confident that he knows enough to be extremely alarmed."

New York Times last night:

- "Intelligence officials have said in interviews over the last six weeks that apparent connections between some of Mr. Trump’s aides and Moscow originally compelled them to open a broad investigation into possible links between the Russian government and the Republican presidential candidate. Still, they have said that Mr. Trump himself has not become a target. And no evidence has emerged that would link him or anyone else in his business or political circle directly to Russia’s election operations."

- "In classified sessions in August and September, intelligence officials also briefed congressional leaders on the possibility of financial ties between Russians and people connected to Mr. Trump. They focused particular attention on what cyberexperts said appeared to be a mysterious computer back channel between the Trump Organization and the Alfa Bank, which is one of Russia’s biggest banks and whose owners have longstanding ties to Mr. Putin. . . . the F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts."

New York Times today:

- "The F.B.I. and Justice Department faced a hard decision in two investigations this past summer that had the potential to rock the presidential election. The first case involved Donald J. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, and secretive business dealings in Ukraine. . . . At the urging of the Justice Department, the F.B.I. agreed not to issue subpoenas or take other steps that would make the cases public so close to the election, according to federal law enforcement officials."

- "In the Ukraine case, agents in Washington are investigating the relationship between foreigners and Mr. Manafort, who was Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman from June until August."

- "In August, around the same time the decision was made to keep the Manafort investigation at a low simmer, the F.B.I. grappled with whether to issue subpoenas in the Clinton Foundation case, which, like the Manafort matter, was in its preliminary stages."

The Washington Post:

- "Reid was briefed privately in August about the Russia threat by one of the country’s top intelligence officials and came away “deeply shaken,” according to an aide who was traveling with him at the time. During the private session, conducted in a specially secured briefing room at the FBI’s Las Vegas office, Reid told aides he received disturbing details of Russian efforts to influence the election — and about possible Trump campaign ties to the Kremlin. Afterward, he wrote Comey urging the FBI director to publicly investigate “a series of disturbing reports” indicating that Russia was trying “to influence the Trump campaign and manipulate it as a vehicle for advancing the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin.”"

So...whew. July, the former spy sent his report to the FBI. The FBI picked up the baton in August, at which point the spy shared "several" memos with them, and felt the inquiry was "substantial." Also in August, an "intelligence official" (probably not FBI, or why would Reid have written to Comey?) briefed Reid on the issues related to the memo and/or the server. Afterwards, Reid wrote to Comey to ask that the FBI investigate. Between then and now, Reid has been briefed "several" times, as have other members of Congress (although the NYT contended this focused on the server). Last night, the NYT described this FBI inquiry into Trump ties as "a broad investigation." And then all the sudden today, in an article about the FBI cases related to this election, this inquiry into Trump seems to vanish...instead we get a Manafort-focused inquiry that only reached "preliminary" stages. Did the FBI also refuse to progress its Trump/Russia inquiry? If so, why wasn't that mentioned? What did they do with all these reports from the former spy?
posted by sallybrown at 7:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [33 favorites]

I just donated to Doug Applegate's campaign #DumpIssa

I don't know how much it helps, but one of the huge poxes on the R house is Darrell Issa. Also, embarrassing, even by CA Republican standards.
posted by waitangi at 7:48 PM on November 1, 2016 [7 favorites]

Right, if the election was today. And if the election was two weeks ago Clinton would have won nearly 400 EV.

I believe, but cannot prove, that actual voter opinions do not change as much as the trend lines show. There is some good research that suggests that all that changes is the enthusiasm of the poll respondent to say whom they would vote for — which manifests itself as picking up the phone or not, responding (out loud) for their candidate or not, or making it through the likely voter screen or not. This especially explains things like convention bounces: Partisans get fired up, reach for that phone and stay on the line for the pollster.

This race has been 4%-6% in Clinton's favor for a year. I think that is the true underlying state of the race and will be on election day.
posted by argybarg at 7:49 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

What trendlines? Let's look at HuffPost Pollster

HuffPost Pollster doesn't include every poll. Including the best ones for Trump (LA Times). Yeah there are reasons for that but its still cherry picking.

But we love Sam Wang, right? So lets look at his history of the meta margin. It clearly and unambiguously shows the race has tightened from about 5 points two weeks ago to 3 points now with the slope of that trend still heading downards. If the race gets under two points we start looking at possible scenarios where Clinton wins the popular vote but Trump takes the electoral college, which would be a nightmare.

This is assuming the polls are accurate. I know some people believe Clinton's GOTV advantage means it underestimates her support. Some Trump folks believe there is a hidden shy white supporter vote for him out there. There is no evidence for the latter of course but there is also no evidence yet that her GOTV effort will translate into beating the polling (since that evidence can only happen after the vote).

But there's unambigously tightening in the last two weeks (pre-dating Comey). From about a 5 point race to a 3 point race, and it hasn't yet stabilized.
posted by Justinian at 7:49 PM on November 1, 2016

Lawrence O'Donnel has an exclusive on a targetsmart/William & Mary survey of early voters in Florida. They've got Florida as 48-40 Clinton based on early voters.

28% of registered Republican voters voted for Hillary.
posted by nathan_teske at 7:11 PM on 11/1

The one fun thing about being behind here is coming up to some good news hours after the fact. I was at 4:30pm-ish in-thread when this news broke and I was excited knowing that in just a few hundred comments everyone here would be excited.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:52 PM on November 1, 2016 [17 favorites]

Right, if the election was today. And if the election was two weeks ago Clinton would have won nearly 400 EV. The worry is that the trendlines continue and the election, which is not today but a week from now, is a toss-up with places where Clinton had a comfortable lead two weeks ago and a small lead today end up a dead heat or a narrow Trump win.

I think Clinton is going to win but the "Trump doesn't have 270 electoral votes!" thing never makes sense to me. No, he does not. Today. Which would be excellent if the election were today but is only good since the election is in a week and he is gaining.

like... ok... and if everybody but Jill Stein voters all spontaneously dropped dead of plague, then Jill Stein would win 538 electoral votes. But that's unlikely enough that it is not worth entertaining.

You know there are actual reasons people say things like "Trump doesn't have 270 electoral votes!" right? Like you know that's based on research and polling and historical trends and math and science and all that good stuff?

Look at this map and tell me how it changes in the next week. And I don't mean "well if Trump takes California..." I mean, look at it and tell me which dark blue states you expect Clinton to lose, and why. "Because I'm scared" is not a reason, "because Brexit happened" is not a reason. Tell me why. Tell me which states you expect to see a 5 or 6 point swing in, in the next week, when they have been stable for months, and why you think that swing will happen.
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [39 favorites]

I will be less nervous when New Hampshire is called for Clinton. I will be excited when either North Carolina or Florida is called for Clinton.
posted by Justinian at 7:54 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

I will be less nervous when New Hampshire is called for Clinton. I will be excited when either North Carolina or Florida is called for Clinton.

As soon as PA is called for Clinton it's over.
posted by Talez at 7:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

If my mama weren't a "dinner on the table at 6, beddy-bye is precisely 9" kinda gal, I'd wake her up to tell her about Florida. But I daren't mess up the up-at-4:30 schedule or I might wreck the rest of the week all together. But she is going to join Jalliah's mom in a fist pump when I crawl out of bed at the criminally late hour of 7 am to tell her tomorrow. (Seriously, the world might explode in squee if my cutey-patootie mama ever met Obama. She ADORES him.)
posted by thebrokedown at 7:59 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

showbiz_liz: I don't expect Clinton to lose, I expect her to win. But it's not, at this point, a 100% lock. Like if there were a 5% chance that I might stub my toe if I ran to get some ice cream I might run to get some ice cream anyway because ice cream and fuck it who cares about a stubbed toe.

I am, on the other hand, very concerned about a 5% chance of a giant meteor wiping out humanity. Or in this case a giant orange cheeto.
posted by Justinian at 8:00 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

How to Choose Between the Most Corrupt, Least Popular Candidates of All Time
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:01 PM on November 1, 2016 [36 favorites]

But there's unambigously tightening in the last two weeks (pre-dating Comey). From about a 5 point race to a 3 point race, and it hasn't yet stabilized.

Many Republican voters are still taking their time to figure out how to vote for Trump. Some of them won't get there. Many of them are very unenthusiastic about him but will give a heavy sigh and vote for him — and hope that what they see as the great moral center of their party* will hold him in check.

There are people for whom voting for Hillary Clinton would be exactly as hard as it would be for me to vote for, say, Newt Gingrich. And I can tell you that if I had to do that, it would be a nightmare getting there — and I might prefer just to stay home.

Anyway, many Republicans are finally saying, "alright, I'll hold my nose and vote for the man." And that's showing up in the polls.

I still don't think there are enough of them.

*I know, I know, don't bother telling me. I don't see a moral center either, but longtime Republicans do.
posted by argybarg at 8:02 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

As soon as PA is called for Clinton it's over.

Eh, there are plenty of maps where Trump wins without PA. If they call FL for Clinton, then I might even be able to go to sleep before the west coast comes in. If they call it for Trump, then it's a nail biter until NV and CO and AZ are accounted for, at the very least. In all my mental paranoia scenarios, I've had PA as a Clinton state, and Trump still has a number of not impossible paths to 270 without it. None that I could make a good case for given the polls and the evidence regarding his GOTV operations, but who knows at this point.
posted by dis_integration at 8:03 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

I teach group fitness classes and I've had a regular Tuesday night class for a few years now--it's a mixed martial arts inspired cardio workout called BODYCOMBAT. I told my folks tonight that they should come next week for sure, unless they really needed to be home with CNN and Wolf Blitzer and the holograms (or did those get retired?) watching election results. Several of them made a face I've come to recognize as "ugh, this election" and said they'd rather come to class. So between 6 and 7pm MST next Tuesday, I'll be venting all my considerable frustration with this election through jabs, elbows, kicks and street brawl punches. Feel free to join in from wherever you are should the spirit move you.
posted by danielleh at 8:04 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

As soon as PA is called for Clinton it's over.

Maybe. If she doesn't win Florida or NC early, we'll have to stay up sweating Colorado to be sure.

The Senate is going to be the real all nighter though.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

I will be less nervous when New Hampshire is called for Clinton.

Wait... like... you're worried about New Hampshire? WHY?
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

NH is a potential bellwether for some full-blown nightmare scenarios.
posted by Behemoth at 8:06 PM on November 1, 2016

If they call it for Trump, then it's a nail biter until NV and CO and AZ are accounted for, at the very least.

Nevada regularly has over 60% early voting turnout, so the result there may be knowable before election day, depending on the early voting margins.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:07 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

I believe, but cannot prove, that actual voter opinions do not change as much as the trend lines show.

This graph of the Obama 2012 horserace internals versus the public polls may offer some evidence of that.
posted by holgate at 8:08 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

God damn it, people. I went out today and--for the first time in years--bought and ate an Egg McMuffin. It was horrible. I hold you all responsible.

Make your own, with your own ingredients. They are delicious. Seriously. This is not a joke post. Go do it.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:12 PM on November 1, 2016 [24 favorites]

The actual egg is optional.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:13 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

Make your own, with your own ingredients. They are delicious. Seriously. This is not a joke post. Go do it.

If you have the ingredients to make your own egg mc muffin you're like four-fifths of the way to eggs benedict so why fuck around?
posted by murphy slaw at 8:14 PM on November 1, 2016 [32 favorites]

Shirt finally came in.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:16 PM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

If you have the ingredients to make your own egg mc muffin you're like four-fifths of the way to eggs benedict so why fuck around?

Eggs are dicey
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:20 PM on November 1, 2016

So, are people here worried about the markets being off today and possibly predicting a Trump win or the Post-ABC News tracking poll having Trump +1?
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:22 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

For those two specific points? No.
posted by holgate at 8:23 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

If you have the ingredients to make your own egg mc muffin you're like four-fifths of the way to eggs benedict so why fuck around?

Also, if the Hollandaise sauce gives you trouble, or intimidates you — using the traditional whisking-over-a-double-boiler method, you get about 38 milliseconds between "perfectly cooked Hollandaise" and "curdled eggs" — use this hand blender method instead. Trust me. It works.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:26 PM on November 1, 2016 [20 favorites]

For those two specific points? No.

Right, but I guess I'm thinking of the trends, and the trends generally seem to be worsening for Hillary. (Or am I wrong? Would love to be wrong.)
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:27 PM on November 1, 2016

From pollster YouGov from earlier today.

Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren't always what they seem
posted by chris24 at 8:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

More great news tonight. Odious Darrell Issa isn't doing too well.
posted by madamjujujive at 8:29 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

From pollster YouGov from earlier today

Oh, hey, how apropos :-). Thanks.
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [2 favorites]

If you have the ingredients to make your own egg mc muffin you're like four-fifths of the way to eggs benedict so why fuck around?

Because hollandaise sauce is a royal pain to get right, otherwise my very accommodating daughter who makes me ham & cheese omelettes with toast all the time could be convinced to switch. Egg-meat-cheese-bread is easy; adding a sauce makes it complicated.

... Wait, are you trying to say the indie upstart in Utah is some kind of Benedict Arnold? Because that is one convoluted metaphor there.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

The stock markets are not "predicting a Trump win." They may be responding to what they see as higher odds of Trump winning than in previous weeks. They may just be swinging up and down, as stock markets do.
posted by argybarg at 8:30 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell - Florida early voting survey

Not an official source, will get taken down eventually.
posted by nathan_teske at 8:31 PM on November 1, 2016

Wasnt there a gasoline pipeline explosion in Alabama? I thought that's what the market's reaction was about today.
posted by AlexiaSky at 8:34 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

The public polls move around more because the likely voter demographics change as we approach Election Day based on interest in the race and news. This doesn't necessarily reflect the demographic that actually turns out.

I also think the press has a tendency to swing back and forth during the election as they panic about focusing on one candidate's failings too much. We are just exiting a period of over focus on Clinton. So we're going to see them swing back this week towards scrutinizing Trump. So expect the Russia, rape allegations and tax items to be burning for a few more days and getting a harder look.
posted by humanfont at 8:34 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

(sorry for the derail)

you get about 38 milliseconds between "perfectly cooked Hollandaise" and "curdled eggs" — use this hand blender method instead. Trust me. It works.

TAKE MY FAVORITES ALL OF THEM I HAVE BEEN LOOKING FOR THIS FOR YEARS. I love eggs benedict and had given up on the idea of ever having them at home.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:36 PM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

The markers aren't predicting anything -- that's "market reporter myopia" at work. I'm sure some Wall Street firms have been commissioning their own polls to try and get an edge, but the only people with any kind of heightened predictive capacity right now work for the campaigns (or maybe just one campaign) and they aren't telling. (I hope.)

Whatever appears to be a "trend" is not like a hurricane track model. There is agency here. If you are alarmed, call your local field office and see what you can do. "Polls are shit. Get back to work."
posted by holgate at 8:37 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

At this late moment in our interminable election season, anyone whose mind isn't made up is essentially a coinflip. And I bet a lot of these so-called undecided likely voters aren't going to vote anyway.

If there's an actual gamechanger in the next week, we'll know immediately - it'll be self-evident. If not, the election is basically set, we just don't know exactly what the margins and downticket races look like.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:46 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

What's clear is this: SOME polls show Trump is doing better. They roughly coincide with a) Comey's idiocy and b) Trump getting awfully scarce on TV. The former has had a minor impact, but I think the latter may be more likely. The Debates absolutely decimated his support. That effect has topped out. So long as he's not doing anything dumb, his support starts to naturally rise as undecided Republicans slip back into the party fold.

But right now Trump's only leading one poll -- one where Johnson and Stein are included. And that's the only poll where he has a lead. And it's a tracking poll.

Trump also may have thrown Florida into a tossup. Right now he's leading OH and IA and possibly NV. But he's getting rolled in PA, NC, and VA. And CO and WI remain in the Hillary column. So long as those five states remain in the Hillary column, his route to victory is essentially non-existent. The polls wouldn't have to be wrong, they would have to be systemically and unusually wrong.

No one has ever lost a 6-point lead with a week to go, certainly not in the modern voting era (i.e. post Truman '48), without there being a truly catastrophic black swan sort of event. And remember that 40% of the votes are already cast.

Could Trump still win? Absolutely. But given the situation on the ground (GOTV struggles, division at the local party level), it's going to be hard for him to pull it off as-is.

We will see some further tightening as undecided white Republicans come home to Trump. But at this point in time, it looks to be too little too late.
posted by dw at 8:46 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

If you have the ingredients to make your own egg mc muffin you're like four-fifths of the way to eggs benedict so why fuck around?

The hollandaise sauce. It's a pain in the rear end. That said, I have two solutions. If you live within reach of a Trader Joe's, they sell hollandaise sauce pre-made, it's next to the eggs. If you don't, a mixture of lemon juice, melted butter, and a tiny tad of mayonnaise to make it emulsify is pretty good.
posted by Daily Alice at 8:47 PM on November 1, 2016

Also, if the markets were predicting a Trump win, a 1.47% drop in the S&P 500 is peanuts compared to the out-in-out correction you could expect from a Trump win. Remember that massive thumping the market took Brexit week? It would look like that. And then get EVEN WORSE on Election Week.
posted by dw at 8:51 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Also also, Egg McMuffins are awesome and better than eggs benedict FIGHT ME
posted by dw at 8:52 PM on November 1, 2016 [11 favorites]

If you live within reach of a Trader Joe's, they sell hollandaise sauce pre-made, it's next to the eggs.

I do indeed, and already shop there for coffee á cocoa, instant chai latte, and two-buck-chuck (which is maybe three-buck-chuck now; I forget). Will add holl sauce to the list.

On the one hand, I feel guilty for the egg sauce derail. On the other, I need some happy thoughts and "difficult favorite food suddenly made easy" is one of the most comforting and encouraging bits I've found in these threads so far. I can now honestly say these election threads have made my life better.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:54 PM on November 1, 2016 [22 favorites]

Canvassing report from Arizona: had lots of conversations today, caught more people home than usual. Quite a few enthusiastic greetings, people who had already mailed in their ballots or voted early in person. Told some folks where to find their polling place, explained how early voting works and encouraged it strongly (especially since the precinct capacity situation is looking a bit dire for next week, with a shortage of e-pollbooks, because Helen Purcell is terrible and needs to be gone yesterday).

I was asked to mentor a new volunteer, a woman in her 70s who moved here from Seattle, campaigned for Bernie in the primaries, and is now all-in for Hillary. She tired out before we finished our packet, but she was a trooper and I enjoyed getting to know her.

As ready as I am for this election to be over (and I am SO ready), I'm going to miss interacting with such a wide variety of people while sharing a common sense of purpose.
posted by Superplin at 8:55 PM on November 1, 2016 [32 favorites]

Also also, Egg McMuffins are awesome and better than eggs benedict FIGHT ME

Hey....are you feeling OK? You are talking some crazy gibberish, and I know the election has us all nervous...
posted by das_2099 at 8:56 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

use this hand blender method instead. Trust me. It works.

Egg McMuffin should cease campaigning on whatever horrible shit is his actual platform and devote the 4 years to spreading the gospel of blender hollandaise. If that's the only thing we gained from this election, well, I won't say it was worth it per se, but I'll certainly accept the consolation prize.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

ELF, that yougov post is super comforting and delightful, too!
posted by Coventry at 8:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

I have to say on the whole I am more satisfied with egg and english muffin sandwiches. A merely average egg and english muffin sandwich is very satisfying, while average eggs benedict tend towards bad hollandaise or mushy muffin.

Anyway, I am thinking about going to McDonald's tomorrow on the way to work. In honor of a relatively honorable Republican who seems to care about stopping a bigoted, incompetent, sexually assaulting authoritarian. Unlike so many other Republicans.
posted by R343L at 8:58 PM on November 1, 2016 [9 favorites]

Regarding Trump's supposed recovery a bit in the polls, I read something last week somewhere that seemed right. When the public hears from Trump directly - debates, etc. - he horrifies and they're turned off and he plummets. When they hear about him through the press, he does better because the press normalizes him. So since there's been no debates, etc. recently, it's mainly normalized press Trump that's out and about so he's doing a bit better.
posted by chris24 at 9:00 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

Jesus fucking Christ! I took Hallowe'en off and today I traveled cross-country (hello Boston) and you nut bags make me crawl through 4 hours of casting recommendations!

Watched msnbc on the flight over. The most interesting commentary re: the William and Mary 28% of Republicans crossing party lines for Hillary was, someone mentioned that all of the never-Trumper radio hosts (Charlie sykes,et al) have certainly influenced some of their loyal listeners. We have to remember that corb is by no means the only ethical Republican out there and plenty of Republicans will indeed be crossing.
posted by Sophie1 at 9:03 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

Our old "friend" Liz Mair who constantly teases oppo drops that never come (via her twitter):

Just did 1.5 hours of phone banking for @GovGaryJohnson, calling into New Mexico.

FWIW, 55 calls were connected. Of those, I'd say about 25 subsequently hung up, were dropped, or system disconnects.

7 were wrong numbers/people who had moved away. 5 were "call back laters." 3 were voting for Hillary. 4 voting for Johnson. 1 undecided.

1 was willing to say he was voting for Trump. The rest were voting for someone but wouldn't say who. These were all on a Republican list.

posted by sallybrown at 9:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [18 favorites]

@Smitter11 @MichaelRCaputo @Fahrenthold The Washington Post is an asswipe and a disgrace to real journalism.

--@SteveSanAntone ("a proud deplorable")

We welcome anyone who buys the WaPo print edition. No judgment. We don't ask what you do with it once it's yours.

--@Fahrenthold
posted by zachlipton at 9:05 PM on November 1, 2016 [73 favorites]

What's hilarious to me about that Mother Jones story is how they don't give their source's name, but they painstakingly lay out his bona fides in such a way that probably everyone in the actual business knows exactly who they're talking about.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:06 PM on November 1, 2016 [12 favorites]

1 was willing to say he was voting for Trump. The rest were voting for someone but wouldn't say who. These were all on a Republican list.

Should've got the Glengarry leads.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 9:08 PM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

What options are there if the Senate stays red and won't confirm any nominees?

This is why even a 51-seat Democratic advantage in the Senate is crucial. With 51 seats, Democrats get a one-seat majority on all Senate committees, most importantly on the Judiciary committee. That means two things:

1. It guarantees that the nominee will be given a public hearing on TV. Republicans can't stop it.
2. It guarantees that the nominee will be given a vote of approval by the committee.

The Republicans can still filibuster the final vote, but it becomes politically much more difficult after the public has seen on TV that the nominee is an actual human being and not the hypothetical lizard person the Republicans make them out to be and gets a recommendation of approval from the committee.
posted by JackFlash at 9:09 PM on November 1, 2016 [19 favorites]

As ready as I am for this election to be over (and I am SO ready), I'm going to miss interacting with such a wide variety of people while sharing a common sense of purpose.

I honestly think that everybody should do some kind of volunteer work on a political campaign at least once, even if you're not political.

We have to remember that corb is by no means the only ethical Republican out there and plenty of Republicans will indeed be crossing.

They don't even need to be as ethical as corb. Enough of them just need to be pragmatic about their own situation: Trumpism would be a blight on Chamber of Commerce Republicans, and assuming that Congress will negate its poison is a risky gamble. Enough of them just need to be sufficiently devout in their religious beliefs that they recognise Trump as amoral self-seeking filth. They have to pick their core identity here.

(Egg and cheese biscuit, people.)
posted by holgate at 9:12 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

James Comey: William H Macy

Going back up the thread aways, but it seems clear to me after seeing the number of pictures of Comey highlighting the bags under his eyes that he should be played by Chris Cooper.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:14 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

You can make hollandaise from scratch in the microwave, too. It's easy and works very well. And although I can't believe my first post in an election thread is about hollandaise, I've read all the threads and have cast my vote by absentee ballot from overseas, for Hillary of course!
posted by hazyjane at 9:14 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

The Rude Pundit: Republicans Will Shit on Your Lawn and Tell You It's Your Fault

What Exactly Do Trump Voters Think Needs Changing?
posted by homunculus at 9:15 PM on November 1, 2016 [10 favorites]

William Weld just spoke very movingly about Clinton on Rachel Maddow. Rachel pushed him on whether or not he would really tell a NC voter to vote Libertarian and he wouldn't answer, but did say that he's speaking up for HRC because someone needs to who isn't the DNC. Said he's known her for 40 years and she's an honest businesslike person.

Here's a clip of Weld.

Meanwhile, from the department of spinelessness, Joe Heck seems to be back on the Trump train, after he was booed when he stepped away.
posted by zachlipton at 9:17 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Wow, Cracked is amazing.

The Only Woman Trump Respects (youtube)
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 9:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [27 favorites]

If you need a pick-me-up, please read this NYT article about the awesome kids aged 10-14 who are reporting on the campaign for Scholastic.
posted by sallybrown at 9:24 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

I don't mind if we don't get rid of the filibuster; I want us to get rid of this fake "I could filibuster so let's just take it as done that I have" BS. If people wanna filibuster, make them talk; Wendy Davis didn't say "I could filibuster so you can't pass this law."

If Reps or Dems want to filibuster something, stand up, face the room, and let the congressional live feed show all their constituents - and their opponents - how they're earning the salary paid with tax dollars. Even if congress doesn't have a "must stay on topic" law like Texas, their next challenger for that seat would have a field day with an hour of nonsense poetry or pointless statistics or reading lists of registered voters in their local county. ("The base annual salary of a US Representative is $174,000. That's $83.65/hour for a standard work year. Taxpayers of Hypothetical County, do you think you got your 83 dollars' worth for this hour of his time?")

A real filibuster is boring, and that's one of the reasons it's so rarely used. Absolutely nobody wants to do it or listen to it. But anyone wanting to block the legislative process with "I could just take my turn to talk and not give it up" should have to put up or shut up.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [90 favorites]

Mathematical Alternatives to the Electoral College from the "Math with Bad Drawings" comic.
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:28 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

Also, downtohisturtles, my brother and I are not currently on speaking terms and I am completely avoiding my father. I get it and I'm sorry.
posted by Sophie1 at 9:34 PM on November 1, 2016 [6 favorites]

Representatives don't filibuster; the rules are set by the majority, and the majority sets debate time limits.

In the Senate, the pretend filibuster (actually, debate cloture votes which require 60 votes) is allowed because doing so let's the Senate get on with unrelated business; this way the filibuster only scuttles one piece of the Nation's Business, not every piece.
posted by notyou at 9:39 PM on November 1, 2016

I think that's the point being made. If the Democrats get a bare majority in the Senate, they can chose to not get rid of the filibuster entirely but instead stop allowing the pretend version so as to force filibusters to actually stop business, thus drawing attention to how much isn't getting done.
posted by R343L at 9:41 PM on November 1, 2016 [16 favorites]

I can't see "Eggs Benedict" without thinking of the time it was used to out Dave as Canadian on NewsRadio.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:44 PM on November 1, 2016 [4 favorites]

My point is that would be worse. Or you just trash the Senate's traditional protection of minority interests and adobt majority rules, like the House. The way the McConnell majority has been acting wrt to traditional norms, we're trending that way anyway, maybe.
posted by notyou at 9:46 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

So, we're over 3000 comments. Are we going to have one more thread prior to the Election Day one?
posted by Chrysostom at 9:48 PM on November 1, 2016 [1 favorite]

Meanwhile, from the department of spinelessness, Joe Heck seems to be back on the Trump train, after he was booed when he stepped away.

I hope to hell that Democrats are running TV ads slamming these wafflers. It should be pretty easy to make an ad that pisses off all the pro-Trump Republicans in the party base as well as any independents or moderates who might be leaning their way. As I've suggested, "Profiles in Cowardice" might be a good theme.
posted by msalt at 9:48 PM on November 1, 2016

Scratch that. The Senate's protection of minority interests via cloture and pretend filibuster, even in the McConnell Senate, have kept a lot of junk off the President's desk (ACA repeals, etc).
posted by notyou at 9:49 PM on November 1, 2016

Tim Kaine is kind of boring so let's rewrite the whole character and cast Viola Davis

With the filibuster I kind of feel like congresspeople just need to have their toys taken away. They've been overusing it precisely because there are fewer consequences and less inconvenience. But admittedly I know nothing.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 9:49 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

So, we're over 3000 comments. Are we going to have one more thread prior to the Election Day one?

I'm personally thinking around Thursday-ish depending on the number of comments.
posted by zachlipton at 9:50 PM on November 1, 2016

We are probably going to need more than one thread for Election Day.

The mods just shit their collective pants.
posted by dersins at 9:54 PM on November 1, 2016 [29 favorites]

I like the idea of requiring all filibusters to be real talking filibusters, but I'd also like to see a similar principle applied to government shutdowns. If the federal government shuts down, it should be a real shutdown. None of this "label half the stuff essential so it's less painful" business. If the government shuts down, all flights should be grounded except for emergency and medical flights (air traffic control). Shut down the border crossings except for ambulances and the like. Send the meat inspectors home and let the agriculture industry scream about how much they're losing every minute. Basically, only keep the parts of the government where there's a good likelihood of people immediately dying or serious crimes being committed if someone doesn't take care of something right away (I'd include Social Security checks in this).

The main impact on a government shutdown for people (who aren't federal employees, who are already horribly mistreated and fed up with Congress) is that they see stuff like the National Zoo is closed, and they think the government is unimportant. If Congress is going to shut down the government, or threaten to do it, they should be playing with live ammo: take away the parts of the government that people rely on all the time, even if it costs the economy billions of dollars a day. The current system devalues the importance of everything government does by labeling too much as "essential."

Because when millions of travelers are stranded at airports and there's a giant pile of rotting beef on TV news, there just might be an outcry for Congress to get its act together fast and fix it.
posted by zachlipton at 9:58 PM on November 1, 2016 [89 favorites]

Politico: Sleeping like the enemy: "Clinton and Trump are alike in one way – they will spend thousands to fly home and sleep in their own beds."

Worth reading, New Yorker: Paul Ryan on the Road for Donald Trump:

Not really. Paul Ryan does seem to be conflicted. But, on the basis of the evidence, the conflict is not between his principles and his partisan obligations but between his intellectual vanity and his opportunism. He is not emblematic of a party that got hijacked but of one that hoped to simultaneously achieve a radical agenda, play to its base’s worst fears, and still be celebrated in polite society. And that is not, in the end, a very interesting study in character. Paul Ryan may just be a very ordinary politician.

posted by zachlipton at 10:03 PM on November 1, 2016 [15 favorites]

Would the EPA be essential? SEC? Because there might be a lot of powerful people not too interested in getting people like them back to work.
posted by ctmf at 10:06 PM on November 1, 2016

Some Trump folks believe there is a hidden shy white supporter vote for him out there.

I think there's a much larger demographic that tends toward shyness, one that has been intimidated and yelled out and threatened into silence to the point where they have to create secret Facebook groups, that Trump is openly antagonistic and ridiculuing and even abusive toward, that I think will swamp the poorly educated white male racists at the polls.

Besides, if there's one thing that the alt-right and Trump supporters have NOT been, it's shy.
posted by msalt at 10:12 PM on November 1, 2016 [50 favorites]

Jesus fucking Christ! I took Hallowe'en off and today I traveled cross-country (hello Boston) and you nut bags make me crawl through 4 hours of casting recommendations!

Keep going, the blender-Hollandaise sauce recipe makes it all worthwhile. ( Although, I do love me an Egg McMuffin. Worked at McDonald's in the early/mid 80's. And it's always been the best thing on the menu. Actual food. )
posted by mikelieman at 10:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

Because when millions of travelers are stranded at airports and there's a giant pile of rotting beef on TV news, there just might be an outcry for Congress to get its act together fast and fix it.

This sounds a lot like the burnitalldownism that animates some Trump voters. Once Americans feel real pain, they'll make the right choice.

Easy for you to say.
posted by notyou at 10:27 PM on November 1, 2016 [3 favorites]

If they call FL for Clinton, then I might even be able to go to sleep before the west coast comes in. If they call it for Trump, then it's a nail biter until NV and CO and AZ are accounted for, at the very least

Eh, we'll know how the election is going pretty early. Watch New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida. (Though the stupid panhandle means Florida polls stay open an hour later than you'd think which pushes our whole timetable off! Stupid panhandle.) If Clinton wins all three of those states it will be an epic nut bashing. If Clinton wins two of them (likely NH and NC but really any two) she should have clear sailing to a comfortable but not landslidey victory. If Clinton wins only New Hampshire the night will be a nail biter but we can hope to squeak out a very narrow victory in the electoral college. If Trump wins all three it's time to start drinking. Heavily.

Hopefully New Hampshire counts quickly and is called quickly. With NH in Clinton's column virtually every realistic Trump path is eliminated. Not every path but you'd generally expect NH to flip to Trump before some of the states he needs for paths that don't include NH so it's a good test. It'll still keep us up biting our nails hoping for no surprises in MI or WI or CO if Trump pulls out NC and FL without NH, but those would be real surprises.

So yeah I'll just be hitting REFRESH over and over on the NH vote count until my fingers bleed.
posted by Justinian at 10:31 PM on November 1, 2016 [14 favorites]

I don't know that gov't shutdowns should be "everything that doesn't involve immediate medical needs." But it should put a halt to salaries and job-related expenses of elected officials.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:32 PM on November 1, 2016 [25 favorites]

I don't know that gov't shutdowns should be "everything that doesn't involve immediate medical needs." But it should put a halt to salaries and job-related expenses of elected officials.

H.R: "Yes Congressman, your direct-deposit was not posted because you shut the government down. And since I've now told you this, I'm turning off the lights and going home. Let me know when I have a job to do again. kthxbye."
posted by mikelieman at 10:34 PM on November 1, 2016 [13 favorites]

"Paul Ryan does seem to be conflicted. But, on the basis of the evidence, the conflict is not between his principles and his partisan obligations but between his intellectual vanity and his opportunism."

Well put. Paul Ryan is what a silly person thinks a serious person looks like ... including notably silly person Paul Ryan who considers himself serious and thoughtful and a giant among men. I will be so super-glad when we can all stop pretending Paul Ryan is a serious person with serious ideas instead of a unusually self-important partisan hack with pretentions to intellectualism.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:46 PM on November 1, 2016 [78 favorites]

Another Billy B emerges from the shadows of a famous family to take down Trump:

Billy Baldwin Verified account
‏@BillyBaldwin

I know Trump since the 80's thru activism, charity, bizz, social scene, mutual friends etc... in a way voters don't.
Trust me... he's a pig.

1:28 AM - 1 Nov 2016

posted by sallybrown at 10:53 PM on November 1, 2016 [45 favorites]

(although maybe "pig" not the best epithet for a Baldwin to use...)
posted by sallybrown at 10:55 PM on November 1, 2016 [8 favorites]

This sounds a lot like the burnitalldownism that animates some Trump voters. Once Americans feel real pain, they'll make the right choice.

That's not an entirely unfair criticism, though I think there's a distinction between them as a shutdown is an act Congress chooses to let happen through mechanisms that already exist, rather than voters taking affirmative steps to burn it all down.

My point is that the EPA lawyer who sues someone to stop them from dumping chemicals in a river and the air traffic controller working a congressperson's flight into DCA are both critically important to keeping our society working, and it's problematic to me that we label one "essential" when the entire point of a shutdown is that the entire government should shut down because it legally doesn't have the authority to operate.

(I will ignore, because we're just letting off steam here and making up random examples, the pedantic argument in my head that parts of the FAA are authorized and funded separately from many other portions of the government and wouldn't necessarily be impacted in the same way as other agencies if there were to be a shutdown.)
posted by zachlipton at 10:57 PM on November 1, 2016 [5 favorites]

> The hollandaise sauce. It's a pain in the rear end. That said, I have two solutions. If you live within reach of a Trader Joe's, they sell hollandaise sauce pre-made, it's next to the eggs. If you don't, a mixture of lemon juice, melted butter, and a tiny tad of mayonnaise to make it emulsify is pretty good.

Gonna blow your mind here. Get yourself an immersion blender, and make hollandaise like a champ.
posted by mrzarquon at 12:19 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I love breakfast like I love America but can we get off the hollandaise derail?
posted by mochapickle at 12:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

The entire history of the Republic, from Revolution through Reconstruction - to be generous - is the history of one side compromising and even ceding ground, in the name of exhaustion or unity or both, to a vocal and powerful minority wing dedicated to the maintenance of hateful systems build on corrupt scaffolds manned by useful idiots held in the thrall of horrible ideas.

Really it's more like "from 1789 through 1861 and then again from 1877 through 1964 (at least)" (the end of Reconstruction was part of the deal to get Democrats to accept the election of Rutherford Hayes in 1876 after Tilden probably "won" thanks to fraud and disenfranchisement of former slaves). And very probably continuing up to the present day (the "bipartisan solutions" people like to talk about as some ideal generally involve more compromise on the part of liberals than conservatives...probably because conservatives tend to be a lot more ideologically committed and less flexible).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

From Harry Enten: From month before election to 9 days before it, we had 80 live interview polls in 2012 in 10 states closest to national vote. In 2016? 36.

This is one of the reasons I'm nervous. I really am following the polling closely and know what the current polling averages are nationally and in the states. My nervousness is not based on unfamiliarity but because the polling this year is not nearly as high quality as I remember it being. Two out of every three goddamn polls seems to be from some fly by night half bit university, push poll partisan outfit, or new and half-baked tracking poll.

Show me recent large sample size proper methodology live-caller to both landline and cellphone polls from reputable outfits still showing Clinton +7 in New Hampshire or whatever and I'll feel better. This WMUR/UNH poll shit has to stop.
posted by Justinian at 2:02 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Or national polls. Even those are fine if they meet the above criteria because while we do have the electoral college it only realistically comes into play in a race closer than about 2%, so show me those Clinton +5 or Clinton +6 national numbers and yay. No more tracking poll bullshit, Gravis/Rasmussen Republican fellatio, or online SurveyMonkey/YouGov crap.

Sit some butts in some seats, call 1000 people using both landlines and cellphones, demographically weigh it appropriately, and tell us the results. Is that really so much to ask?
posted by Justinian at 2:06 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

> "Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren't always what they seem"

We consider it almost certain that Clinton was never as far ahead as many published polls suggested at the high points of the campaign, and equally that she has not lost as much by recent events as some published polls suggest. The truth is more boring: real change mostly happens slowly, and the impact of campaign events is much less than the media makes out.

Interesting.
posted by kyrademon at 2:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, we're over 3000 comments. Are we going to have one more thread prior to the Election Day one?

Yes; conversations have ensued. ChurchHatesTucker is working on the next post; I'm working on the Election Day one.
posted by Wordshore at 3:23 AM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

Guys, thank you so much for the hollandaise derail. I think without stuff like this, all of us who are frantically reloading this and other election news would just lose our minds.
posted by moonlight on vermont at 3:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

It's the election that's the derail. This was really a thread about how to make Hollandaise sauce all along.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 3:51 AM on November 2, 2016 [40 favorites]

but the REAL hollandaise sauce was the friends we made along the way
posted by en forme de poire at 3:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [104 favorites]

If you live within reach of a Trader Joe's, they sell hollandaise sauce pre-made, it's next to the eggs.

If you get buyer's remorse, use the immersion blender instead, make hollandaise great again.

I'm not doing this right
posted by Namlit at 4:22 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

> "Also, PEC really looks like an outlier when it comes to the Nebraska and Maine CD 2s."

That's because PEC only just started giving estimates of the Maine and Nebraska individual districts (at the request of The Upshot) rather than simply the states as wholes, which is what The Upshot has been posting for the districts in the PEC column. So revised numbers should go in for those soon, if they haven't been put in already.
posted by kyrademon at 4:28 AM on November 2, 2016

One of my students burst out yesterday with, "[HRC] paid the FBI to do something something something."

I mean what? What? How does that make sense? Even if she did? That she bought her own ratfucking?
posted by angrycat at 4:34 AM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

MeFi's own John Scalzi: Thoughts a Week From Election Day

Don’t panic. One, at this point, at the presidential level, this cake is already baked. Clinton voters don’t give a shit about the most recent email nonsense. Trump voters don’t give a shit about any of the various horrible things he’s done. Everyone’s going to vote the way they were always going to vote. It’s all over except for the waiting.

posted by Gelatin at 4:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Just on Radio 4, The Unswayables, Trump's Loyal Army.

In this documentary Michael Goldfarb travels to western Pennsylvania, once a Democratic stronghold now tilting heavily Republican. He spends more than a few minutes with Trump supporters listening to them and their reasons for supporting the candidate. How do they see the world? How do they learn about the world? What media do they use? He also explores what happens should their man lose.

More than any election of recent decades this campaign has revealed an America divided. How, after a campaign such a Trump's, can it be brought back together?
posted by Devonian at 4:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

@ThePlumLineGS:
New Bloomberg poll, all post-Comey, finds Clinton leading Trump among independents by four points.
Clinton Narrowly Beats Trump With Independents

"Hillary Clinton holds a slim advantage with independents, a group Republican Mitt Romney won by five percentage points in 2012, with almost half the voters in the crucial bloc saying renewed scrutiny of her e-mail won’t impact their vote."
posted by chris24 at 4:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

::checks thread::

< 20 comments since the day started.

Maybe we're done! Done talking about the election now. jscalzi's soothing words have everyone contented that the American populace is sane, that the guiding hand of PEC will lead us through the forest, and the JCPL has plateaued at an even hum. No news is good news!

1 new comment, show

. . . shoot.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:06 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Refreshing 538 now doesn't give me the joy it once did :/
posted by antinomia at 5:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Current election status in Oregon.
posted by Wordshore at 5:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

I'm sorry, spitbull. I feel the same way about ice cream for much the same reason.
posted by winna at 5:17 AM on November 2, 2016

Stay away from 538. It will not help you to get to Tuesday night healthily.
posted by tzikeh at 5:19 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Field report: two burly older white guys in the weight room at the gym loudly discuss how Hillary is losing and it's great and lots of people will secretly vote for him. I chuckle, then look around. Literally every other person in the large room is a woman on a treadmill with headphones on. Metaphors.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:29 AM on November 2, 2016 [82 favorites]

At this late date do people STILL not know about the poll aggregator aggregator? Stop sucking on Nate Silver's fearteat for a hot sec and click on this instead please.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:32 AM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

On my first day in the Syrian capital of Damascus as a young intelligence officer, I struck up a conversation with a spice vendor in a local marketplace. With my broken Arabic, I made small talk until I felt comfortable enough to ask him what he thought of Bashar al-Assad, who had recently inherited power from his father. The man seemed nervous and didn’t answer. I thought perhaps he didn’t understand my poor Arabic, so I asked again. This time, the fear in his eyes was unmistakable. Without saying a word, he bolted into the back of his shop.

McMuffin talks about his position on Syria, but I thought this was an interesting anecdote purely for the degree of naivete it displays.
posted by winna at 5:33 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I kind of wonder about the longevity of 538 on ESPN's site after the election. They haven't exactly covered themselves with glory this year and ESPN has been cutting a lot of costs, I would be surprised if they're not somewhere else long before the 2020 elections.
posted by octothorpe at 5:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

McMuffin talks about his position on Syria, but I thought this was an interesting anecdote purely for the degree of naivete it displays.

He's the Thomas Friedman of Presidential Candidates!
posted by drezdn at 5:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Glory isn't the goal.
Getting liberals to fear-tap refresh button while ruining pants is the goal. They definitely got that one.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Like look at that NYT comparison for FL, NC, and NV. Everyone else has them lean Dem or solid Dem; Silver has them 51-52% probability Dem. I can't help seeing that as naked bet-hedging, so that if one of them turns out to be an upset he can say 'I was closest' and if not, 'I was right.'
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:52 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

If y'all keep telling everyone about the easy way to make Hollandaise, half of Utah's conservatives are going to switch from Evan McMullin to Evan Benetick, and then we're never going to have a third party win electoral votes.
posted by jackbishop at 5:54 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Pierre-Antoine Kremp has a new poll aggregator, incorporating Bayesian inference, open-source software, and reproducible research (according to the Slate article). Less scary than 538.
posted by ogooglebar at 5:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

spitbull My father was a cook (occasionally called a chef by employers who wanted to sound fancy), and precisely for that reason I will never work in the food industry.

Looking back on it, he had what amounted to acquired mild anorexia. After working in food prep for decades he grew to loathe food, I remember him saying once "I make that shit, I don't eat it". He was never really fully anorexic, but he was unhealthily thin and frequently skipped meals or ate only very tiny servings. He basically lived on cigarettes and coffee and had huge categories of food he simply would not eat.

After he quit restaurant work he got somewhat better. It took a few years, but eventually he resumed something resembling normal eating patterns though he remained underweight for his height until he died.

To me making Hollandaise is an almost magical experience, but I can easily see how making it every day by the ten gallon batch would take the magic out really damn quick. Sorry you had the crappy end of things.
posted by sotonohito at 5:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I never understood the appeal of 538. I mean, I get that Silver was a big deal for a while, but every time I looked at the site it was filled with "entertainment" statistical charts that were often based on small sample histories and bad assumptions. The sports area didn't seem much better judging from the few times I checked in there, notably during the World Cup, where, again, the working assumptions being used as a base for their predictions were often not that strong. I haven't paid any attention to them this election, other than of course seeing the comments about them here as I just can't accept the way constant polling now potentially affects elections. It doesn't strike me much as particularly good science or remotely good entertainment, more a pollution of both.
posted by gusottertrout at 5:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Louis CK on the election (YT): Really excited to have the first mom in the White House
posted by chaoticgood at 5:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

I just made hollandaise yesterday - and I used an immersion blender in my new beautiful bain-marie (anxiety shopping thing) for the first time - it was perfect! And easy! And then when I opened MetaFilter this morning - imagine how much I laughed. So good for election anxiety
posted by mumimor at 5:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Pierre-Antoine Kremp has a new poll aggregator

It's really worth a look, particularly the single State-by-State probabilities graph. By that graph, there are only three states that are true tossups: Nevada, Florida, North Carolina. They have Ohio, Arizona and Iowa as all likely Red states. HOWEVER, the important thing to note is that the Blue non-tossups are all extremely Blue, and they add up to > 270. Without Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:01 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

I have to work on Election night. I work in a very small-time branch of showbiz, and showbiz never sleeps. So I won't be here to participate in what I'm very hopeful will be a joyous, raucous thread celebrating Hillary (and us voters) making history.

I'm really bummed out about that. I've been celebrating victories and mourning losses and just exploring interesting, thought-provoking stuff on the web here for 8ish years under this name and as a lurker for many years before that. I've followed these election threads (though I tend to stand in the back and not say very much) since HRC announced her candidacy. I'm really going to miss you all.

So, in advance: thank you all for the laughs, the empathy, the support, the community. I love it here so much. Can't wait to see you on the other side and really get to work.
posted by penduluum at 6:04 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

*glances away from screen for five seconds*

oh and so now we're talking about hollandaise sauce for some reason

*glances away from screen for two seconds*

you know, that's true, Mickey Dolenz really WAS the glue that held the Monkees together
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 6:05 AM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

It wasn't making 1000 pieces of chicken a day at Roy Rogers that turned me off Fried Chicken. It was cleaning out the deep frier at the end of the day.

I am sure there is an election metaphor in there somewhere.
posted by shothotbot at 6:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

How long does a 6s take to load this page? 2 seconds?
posted by Yowser at 6:12 AM on November 2, 2016

I'm happy for people who can afford new iPhones.
posted by Too-Ticky at 6:14 AM on November 2, 2016

Stop sucking on Nate Silver's fearteat for a hot sec and click on this instead please.

I just spent an embarrassingly long time trying to parse that sentence, because my brain refused to recognize that word as anything other than "fart-head."

There's probably an election metaphor in there, too.
posted by Mayor West at 6:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I feel like a shitty human being for it, but I am seriously thanking Dog that the suspect in last night's shootings of police officers in Des Moines appears to be a white guy. I realize it's terrible to view that situation through the lens of the election, but I have completely lost any sense of perspective and am not going to get it back for a week.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

Guys, the gallons-of-hollandaise story literally made me barf. Between the sustained moderate dyspepsia from the election and the new meds I'm on, the new batch of comments catapulted me into DEFCON HURL.

So, uh, thanks. I'm going to shower.
posted by mochapickle at 6:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

How long does a 6s take to load this page? 2 seconds?

Mine can take upwards of 20 seconds depending on connection speed.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:18 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Also anyone even vaguely concerned that there's a silent contingent of Trump voters who just aren't talking to the pollsters should reflect on prize bull octorok's wise words:

Voting for Trump such a shameful thing that people feel compelled to hide their intentions of doing so, even to random strangers conducting anonymous polls. This why they feel certain he will win in November. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by Mayor West at 6:22 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Yeah, iOS safari apparently doesn't like big threads at ALL.

My understanding is all iOS browser apps are using essentially the same browser engine, so I don't know that switching to Chrome would help.
posted by Mooski at 6:23 AM on November 2, 2016

Wait, I misread that. I'm on a Galaxy S6, not an iPhone 6S.

I'd be in favor of another Apple v Samsung lawsuit if it would force one party to change their model naming convention.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:23 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

My iPhone 5 (ye gawds) loads in 10 seconds.

Are you guys using a third-party browser?
posted by Yowser at 6:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Extremely Wealthy Crank Urges Swing State Voters To Try To Elect Donald Trump

There should be a fancy Latin term for “arbitrarily chosen deal-breakers selected to reverse-engineer a justification for not voting for a candidate you’ve decided a priori you don’t want to support.” People who actually care about how the next president will affect environmental policy evaluate the candidates on environmental policy. People who want to effectively ignore environmental policy focus solely on fracking.

Her laundry list also serves to illustrate the utter stupidity of “dealbreaker” logic. “If Hillary Clinton favored a $15 minimum wage that won’t pass Congress, I might support her. But since she only favors a $12 minimum wage that won’t pass Congress, I’ll take my chances on Trump winning.” “I used to be a Democrat, but when I found out that Hillary Clinton is insufficiently woke on GMO labeling I can live with several decades of a Supreme Court where the median justice would have to turn to the left to see Antonin Scalia.” OK.

[...]
Now that Trump is self-destructing, I feel even those in swing states have the opportunity to vote their conscience.

First of all, with the FBI director having decided to try to throw the election to Trump, this is an odd characterization. Clinton remains a favorite and probably an overwhelming favorite, but it would be wrong to say that Trump has no chance, and if Stein got any real traction he certainly would. [...]

And it’s worth noting again that what utter chickenshit the qualifier is. At least the “heighten-the-contradicitons” crap she was peddling earlier is an argument — a really terrible argument in the vast majority of circumstances including this one, but an argument. “Vote Stein because it won’t matter anyway” just makes you a free rider patting yourself for what a special snowflake you are. Lamest. form. of. masturbation. ever. If you think that we can’t have an omelet without Trump breaking America’s most vulnerable then own it, and if not spare us.

posted by tonycpsu at 6:27 AM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

It's really worth a look, particularly the single State-by-State probabilities graph. By that graph, there are only three states that are true tossups: Nevada, Florida, North Carolina.

It's not just that one aggregator saying so - across the board, checking all the aggregators, those are currently the three closest states. And yeah, Clinton does not need any of them - and based on EV turnout, at least Nevada is close to a Dem lock. The other two are too close to call currently due to a large number of unaffiliated voters.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:27 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

iPhone 7 loads this thing just about instantaneously, fwiw.

Also Kitchen Confidential warned me not to eat brunch at a restaurant, but especially never to eat the hollandaise. I mostly stick by this.
posted by uncleozzy at 6:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

The mainstream news media has a well-documented conflict bias. It's become professional wrestling without the costumes. And social media serves as a megaphone for crankery.

I try to stay grounded with a bit of stoicism. My vote is in. I'm currently not able to do canvassing or other campaign work. The media and FBI wankery is deplorable, but it's not me. Take a break, pet the cat, hug the spousal unit, call the parents. Those are the things I can do.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 6:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Also Kitchen Confidential warned me not to eat brunch at a restaurant, but especially never to eat the hollandaise. I mostly stick by this.

You're totally missing out. Former professional chef here: I almost always get some version of a Benedict when it's available. Never been sick, never been disappointed. I think Tony probably should update that little nugget of advice because I don't think it holds true for every single restaurant in every single city in the US. It certainly doesn't for the places I go to (where I tend to know who is in the kitchen and how they're prepping and storing ingredients).
posted by cooker girl at 6:39 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Pierre-Antoine Kremp has a new poll aggregator, incorporating Bayesian inference, open-source software, and reproducible research

Just to note that this is not really a poll aggregator -- it's an election forecast model that incorporates poll data.

The difference is that polls-only 538 and Sam Wang /PEC are poll aggregators pure and simple. The only major differences between PEC and 538 are how they model the random processes that get us from now to election day and the assumptions they make about how votes (and errors) are correlated between states. Their only model of electoral behavior or electoral results is "By and large, people vote for the candidate they told you they were going to vote for when you asked them." While this is not a very interesting or useful model by polisci standards, it has the advantage of making polls-only 538 and PEC basically neutral data processors that are just offering a way to look at the polls coming in.

The new one is a version of Linzer's forecast model, which IIRC has Abramowitz's model at its core, and it has a simple but substantive model of electoral behavior -- voters respond to economic factors, presidential approval rates, and how long the incumbent party has been in power.

It matters insofar as PEC and polls-only 538 have a couple of sources of error -- their random processes between now and election day can be wrong, their assumptions about inter-state correlations can be wrong, and most importantly the polls could be wrong. This new one has an additional source of error -- the Abramowitz model could be wrong, either in identifying causal factors in presidential elections, or, even if it correctly picks some causal factors, the estimated model parameters could be far from their true values.

It's not a big deal, really, but themoreyouknow.gif , knowingishalfthebattle.avi .
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 6:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

After scrolling up a bit, I have to add that literally no one I know who works in kitchens nowadays makes a 10 gallon batch of Hollandaise to last the whole day. That is truly disgusting and I know it's the way it used to be done (and probably still is in some places, sure) but it's not what I'm familiar with at all. I mean, it takes seconds to whip up a batch when you're good at it.
posted by cooker girl at 6:44 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

(that came out too critical. the new thing is fine and interesting; it's just a different beast from PEC)
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 6:45 AM on November 2, 2016

Yeah yeah (directed towards no one in particular), I'm STILL saying it'll be in the bag for Hillary by 11pm. While that will be awesome in many ways, it's just going to be the beginning of long shitshow as Republicans attempt to throw any and everything at her while continuing to gum up the working of government and then turn around blame her.

But at least they'll have to say Madame President a lot.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

It's not just that one aggregator saying so - across the board, checking all the aggregators, those are currently the three closest states.

Yes, very much agreed. It was particularly stark on the new Slate page (and a such a pretty sweeping curve it is!) which is why I singled it out there, particularly how the very blue states were all so very very blue, and they add up to more than 270.
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

But at least they'll have to say Madame President a lot.

What's Bill to be in all this? First Dude?
posted by Namlit at 6:49 AM on November 2, 2016

Adam Serwer of the The Atlantic: Don't Let the FBI Decide the Election

FBI Director James Comey’s decision to reveal fresh details of the Bureau’s investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server while secretary of state, and the subsequent leaks from Bureau sources casting suspicion on Clinton and defending Republican nominee Donald Trump from allegations of Russian influence, do more than threaten the Bureau’s reputation. They threaten American democracy as much as any of Trump’s authoritarian proposals.

posted by sallybrown at 6:49 AM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

Mark Burnett Clamps Down on ‘The Apprentice’ Staff Over Donald Trump Leaks
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Guys, the gallons-of-hollandaise story literally made me barf. Between the sustained moderate dyspepsia from the election and the new meds I'm on, the new batch of comments catapulted me into DEFCON HURL.

So, uh, thanks. I'm going to shower.

...Under a slow drip of fragrant, creamy, gooey hollandaise sauce.
posted by euphorb at 6:52 AM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

From sallybrown's great link:

"The point is not that some of these leaks are good and some of them are bad. The point is not that Clinton is innocent or not innocent, or that Trump is pro-Russian or anti-Russian. The point is that a presidential election should not depend on the ability of candidates to successfully intimidate or cultivate favor among American national-security agencies. " [emphasis mine]
posted by chris24 at 6:54 AM on November 2, 2016 [63 favorites]

So it seems that the Iowa shooter is a deplorable

@shaunking Last month Scott Michael Greene who just killed 2 Iowa officers took a Confederate Flag to a football game & waved it in front of Black fans

posted by localhuman at 6:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

@RalstonReports: Big: Judge orders NV GOP/Trump and Trump campaign to appear in court and produce material to solicit poll watchers.

Meanwhile:

West Palm Beach Trump Supporters Use Bullhorns, Scream at Clinton Supporters Outside Poll

Greenville Church burned and spray painted "Vote Trump"
posted by zombieflanders at 7:00 AM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

I think Tony probably should update that little nugget of advice because I don't think it holds true for every single restaurant in every single city in the US.

Bourdain has also been super explicit and forthcoming that he doesn't consider himself to be that talented of a chef and attributes his fame to (a) having a sellable origin story and (b) being a pretty damn solid writer. He has specifically and repeatedly mocked how inept and full of half-assery his brunch-cooking days were. So, in the name of all that is enjoyable and relaxing, I beg of you to consider that avoiding all brunches based on Anthony Bourdain's past is like avoiding all cheeseburgers because you remember that one dude in high school talking about how they used to hock loogeys on the food at Burger King.
posted by middleclasstool at 7:02 AM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Can someone just make a hollandaise thread or something so this one can get back to the election? Thanks.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 7:04 AM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

@RalstonReports: Big: Judge orders NV GOP/Trump and Trump campaign to appear in court and produce material to solicit poll watchers.

Odds on anyone actually showing up?
posted by rp at 7:08 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Make it about the unlikely connection between hollandaise sauce and page loading on mobile devices.
posted by perspicio at 7:08 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

NYT: Hillary’s Male Tormentors: But her journey doesn’t only reflect the advances of women. It has also been shaped by the appetites and anxieties of men. (Maybe the two dynamics go hand in hand.) And it has exposed gross male behavior while prompting fresh examples of it. Prominent men on the edge of obsolescence have never acted so wounded, so angry, so desperate.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:11 AM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

7 Bizarro Congressional Races You Should Know About Before Election Day - meet a crop of (mostly) deplorables that are on the ballot. Sadly, Liz Cheney looks like a sure bet, arrrrrgggggh.
posted by madamjujujive at 7:18 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Hi friends, I'm petebest here at the 3000+ comment 2016 Election MegaThread™ to talk to you about the importance of the Classic Theme.

New phone owners and vintage computational device aficionados all agree: Classic Theme provides the smooth scrolling and blueful speed all threads deserve.

Switch to MetaFilter's Classic Theme by scrolling to the bottom of any page, or set it in the preferences of your login profile. Take it from me, you'll be glad you did!

*harmonica*
The thread is tougher than it seems,
Just load the MeFi Classic Theme!

/fade
posted by petebest at 7:18 AM on November 2, 2016 [94 favorites]

They love the Classic Theme over in Ogdenville!
posted by zutalors! at 7:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

I've had nothing but this damn election on my mind for months now. My sweetheart misses the good old days when she could ask me what I'm thinking.
posted by whuppy at 7:24 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

WTF is wrong with you people and your cruel hollandaise torture? I haven't had time for breakfast yet and am stuck here at my home desk doing stupid admin tasks for the next hour, which means I have no time to go to the local Eggs Benedict joint before my 12:00-4:15 office/class obligation. And the egg joint closes at 3:00. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.

Maybe I can fit it in tomorrow morning. Fuck my life.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I live in a dark blue bubble in NC, however I have friends volunteering all over the state and they have many positive reports about turnout all over the place. I'm trying not to freak out. We've been living under what really feels like a so-bad-it-seems-like-parody iteration of a Republican state government since 2012. I'm doing what I can to keep my panic level about this electionfrom being overwhelming . But if I'm honest, I kinda feel like I haven't slept soundly since roughly April. This will be a white-knuckled, whiskey drinking Election Night for sure.

FYI: Fried green tomatoes are an excellent addition to Eggs Benedict (my cholesterol's fine, thanks for asking).
posted by thivaia at 7:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I have literally never had a problem loading any election thread on mobile or desktop browsers.

My choice of theme?

The Plain Theme.

The Plain Theme: Because something about 2016 should be normal.

Paid for by The Committee To Encourage Widespread Use of the Plain Theme
posted by dersins at 7:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

New York Times rejects 'Hello, Dolly!' ad that declared 'It Takes a Woman'
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Two kinds of blue you need on your screen
One Is MeFi's classic theme
It's fast, it's slick, it's kind to phones
Don't lose the thread - get in the zone

The other blue comes state by state
Towards midnight, November 8
And if you want to see that load
Don't lose the chance, GET OUT THE VOTE
posted by Devonian at 7:34 AM on November 2, 2016 [45 favorites]

Greenville Church burned and spray painted "Vote Trump"

me: *hmm wonder what kind of church got burned*

Local Black church Hopewell M.B. Church was not only burned but also vandalized with the words "Vote Trump" spray painted on the side of the building.

SURPRISE! it was a black church!

me: *checks Fox News, self-anointed guardian of Christendom*

*crickets*
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [51 favorites]

I've had nothing but this damn election on my mind for months now. My sweetheart misses the good old days when she could ask me what I'm thinking.

Thanks for reminding me of that godawful comment.
posted by zutalors! at 7:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I've had nothing but this damn election on my mind for months now. My sweetheart misses the good old days when she could ask me what I'm thinking.

Funny you should mention that.
posted by The Bellman at 7:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oh look, white cop killer captured alive. Amazing police work. When they want to.
posted by chris24 at 7:41 AM on November 2, 2016 [43 favorites]

Tom Nichols on Twitter admitted that he voted for Hillary. Tom "the federal government are not your god damned parents" Nichols. Tom "give it all to the states" Nichols.

This fucking election.
posted by Talez at 7:41 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Tom Nichols on Twitter admitted that he voted for Hillary.

Tom's the one who wrote that great tweetstorm a couple weeks ago about how the election was no longer about right v left or policies, it was about preserving our form of government.
posted by chris24 at 7:44 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

The trend in recipes over the course of the election and their relationship to comfort and stress is going to be a real cornucopia for some future food studies grad student. I expect by Election Day we will be reduced to stirring a bunch of sugar into warm butter and choking it down with a spoon.
posted by one_bean at 7:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

But at least they'll have to say Madame President a lot.

What's Bill to be in all this? First Dude?

My father-in-law is just obsessed with this issue, though I think it's his shitty (barely)-sub-conscious mind looking for ways to shit on Hillary Clinton without looking like he's at all supporting Trump. "What will they call him? They'll call him President Clinton because that's what we call former presidents. So there'll be two President Clintons in the white house talk about confusing" blah blah blah blah.

Largely I shrug and say "I'm sure the staff will suss it out somehow" because my wife won't let me use the word "ass" in front of him, much less grab him by the shirtfront and scream who fucking gives a fucking shit anyway are you printing their fucking personal stationery?

Grumble grumble motherfucking eastern shore grumble grumble.
posted by phearlez at 7:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

Or what I like to call American Hollandaise.
posted by one_bean at 7:47 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just a general note that while I know we're all variously lapsing into later stages of Election Madness, it'd be good to try and rein in the e.g. hollandaise riffs and shout-at-clouds stuff a little to help this thread, and it's inevitable-but-maybe-not-just-yet pre-election followup, last a little bit longer.
posted by cortex (staff) at 7:47 AM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

On Super Tuesday I had a little can of Sofia Coppola's champagne on hand to celebrate Clinton's wins. My boyfriend makes fun of me for drinking champagne out of a can but he will be drinking Sofia with me on Tuesday night.
posted by zutalors! at 7:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Secret Life of Gravy: But even that understates the situation. As a real estate owner Trump can acquire still more tax losses under liberal rules set by Congress—rules Trump lobbied for—that apply only to full-time managers of their own investment real estate. This means Trump could enjoy a much larger income than the $19 million he reported on his 1995 Connecticut nonresident tax form in future years and still pay no income taxes.

So, recall how Donald keeps saying he's "an outsider" and "not a politician"? Yeah, well he lied. He's pushed for laws he wants, laws that don't help anyone but people like him. So what if he didn't run for office (well, he wanted to be mayor of NYC, and has talked about getting into politics, even running for President, for a while (NY Times). Except he didn't want opposition for the Republican nomination for NY governor. Just saying.

ErisLordFreedom: ... two-buck-chuck (which is maybe three-buck-chuck now; I forget)

It depends on where you are

Charles Shaw Wines are $1.99 in CA; $2.49 in OR & WA; $2.59 in ME; $2.79 in GA; $2.99 in NV, AZ, NM, TX, IL, IA, NE, KY, WI, MO, IN, MI, MA, NJ, DC, NC, SC & FL; $3.29 in VA; and $3.79 in OH (Phew!). Alcohol availability & price may vary due to state laws, taxes, shipment fees & other such stuff. (If we could, we would.)

posted by filthy light thief at 7:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

First Gentleman. Done. Easy. Moving on.
posted by lauranesson at 7:49 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

My boyfriend makes fun of me for drinking champagne out of a can but he will be drinking Sofia with me on Tuesday night.

Pure snobbery. Minneapolis' beloved Surly beer comes in a can, and I once asked the owner why, and he told me he had looked at study after study that determined people can't tell the difference in flavor.
posted by maxsparber at 7:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

First Gentleman. Done. Easy. Moving on.

Technically, sure, but he'll still properly be referred to as President Bill Clinton by the media.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:51 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

My boyfriend makes fun of me for drinking champagne out of a can but he will be drinking Sofia with me on Tuesday night.

TTTCS
posted by pxe2000 at 7:53 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

roomthreeseventeen: he'll still properly be referred to as President Bill Clinton by the media.

Seems likely. But since Hillary's name is not Bill, that will not cause any confusion. And 'former' can be a very useful word here, too.

Personally, I prefer 'First Spouse'. Let's take gender out of it altogether, while we're at it.
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:54 AM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]

TTTCS

look we are drinking no matter what!
posted by zutalors! at 7:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Yeah, I like "First Spouse," too, leaving the inevitable freak-out for later when we get an unmarried/poly/whatever president.
posted by lauranesson at 7:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Dormant FBI Archives Twitter Account Revived Two Days Ago: Pro Trump, Anti Clinton

What a fun year.
posted by salix at 7:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

And 'former' can be a very useful word here, too.

Not to derail, but I believe that's factually incorrect.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:57 AM on November 2, 2016

Speaking of stress purchases, I just bought this and I'm disappointed I already voted.

Purse first, purse first, walkin' to the polls purse first
posted by pxe2000 at 7:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Personally, I prefer 'First Spouse'.

What can I do to ensure that Bill wears a tank emblazoned with First Bae to the inauguration?
posted by phunniemee at 7:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

look we are drinking no matter what!

We invited some friends over for an election result watch party and had to disclaim "it'll probably be happy, might be sad, but in either case there will be a lot of margaritas."
posted by DynamiteToast at 8:02 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Looking forward to the same generous and ecstatic donation campaign by twitter influencers for the black church that got burned by Trump supporters as went into the support of a burned GOP HQ.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:05 AM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

Minneapolis' beloved Surly beer comes in a can, and I once asked the owner why, and he told me he had looked at study after study that determined people can't tell the difference in flavor.

At the first SAVOR event I talked for a while with the head brewer from New Belgium (of Fat Tire beer) and what he was most enthusiastic about was that they were just about finished getting set up to can rather than just bottle their stuff. Talked at length about the ways it was superior even beyond preventing any light from touching & degrading the beer. Thinking back, if I had been a better interviewer at the time I would have asked if he'd have dropped bottles entirely if it was all up to him and wouldn't make a difference in sales. I suspect the answer would have been yes.

champagne out of a can

I like the sound of this dark magik for the sake of carrying it home, but at almost $5 a can in the online sources - and based on the descriptions of the taste - I think I will just stick with my go-to Cristalino Cava, which at about $7 a bottle I could just drink 2 cans worth and throw out the rest for the same price.
posted by phearlez at 8:06 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

In this documentary Michael Goldfarb travels to western Pennsylvania, once a Democratic stronghold now tilting heavily Republican. He spends more than a few minutes with Trump supporters listening to them and their reasons for supporting the candidate.

That would be, what, triple digits on the "let's go to a sad mostly-white town and talk to some people who will talk about economic anxiety and also they have some thoughts on black and brown people", right? I'm sure that there are some towns even sadder that they didn't have a journo show up to stay at their motel or eat at their diner.

It's been like a loose tooth for the media during this campaign, and a kind of passive complicity.
posted by holgate at 8:06 AM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

Louis CK on the election (YT): Really excited to have the first mom in the White House

Fucking A! When I quoted this, I went back and tried to make sure the link works here, too, because this went a long way toward making me feel better and I think everyone should (a) see and (b) share this sentiment.

I already loved him but this is the best. I wish I could thank Louis CK for making me happy, briefly, during this ridiculously difficult time.
posted by theredpen at 8:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

FWIW, the AP has advised "first gentleman" no caps, as that's not an official title, unless the the person previously held office, in which case it'll be "former President Bill Clinton."
posted by notyou at 8:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

As long as we're talking about canned adult beverages - Backpack Wine just reached our state. In my market it's priced at $3.99 for a 250ml can which is the equivalent of a $12 bottle. Both the white and the rose are actually good. Anyway, I feel that the conversation about cans is the same as the conversation about screw tops (excuse me, Stelvin closures) from a decade ago.

Someone gave me some great wine advice years ago, and I repeat it for you now: "You can't drink the price tag, and you can't drink the label."

now give me a minute to figure out how to apply that to the current election so I can pretend this isn't just derail.
posted by komara at 8:13 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Why is it necessary in this day and age for the President's spouse to have a title and ceremonial role? It feels a little monarchist and quite outdated to this Canadian.
posted by peppermind at 8:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

How to Keep Trans Voters From Being Disenfranchised
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Hi, everyone! Today I'm panicking about:

The Philadelphia transit strike.

And good morning to all.
posted by kyrademon at 8:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Want to vote early but afraid you'll miss out on the fun of Election Day? Join me in my new Super PAC PokePAC! Our only mission is to encourage Poke To The Polls by heading to any polling place with a nearby pokestop and dropping lures during our lunch break, coffee break, after work, before work, anytime on election day! You never know what young Pokemon trainer may just need an extra little nudge to wander near a polling place and decide to hang around for a bit!
posted by jermsplan at 8:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

If you were looking for a single image to symbolize Trump's candidacy and everything it stands for, "VOTE TRUMP" spray painted on the side of a firebombed black church would pretty much do it.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [100 favorites]

Aha. My polling location already is a PokeStop. Good idea!
posted by miratime at 8:18 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Pendy's Postulate: In exactly the same way as a Thomas Pynchon novel, as an election thread gets longer, the probability that the next comment will be a song someone wrote about the topic being discussed approaches 1.
posted by penduluum at 8:19 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Why is it necessary in this day and age for the President's spouse to have a title and ceremonial role? It feels a little monarchist and quite outdated to this Canadian.

I'm similarly against the whole 'former Presidents, Governors, etc keep their titles for life' thing. It feels contrary to the spirit of the Title of Nobility Clause, if not necessarily the letter.
posted by jedicus at 8:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

How to Keep Trans Voters From Being Disenfranchised

Also: offer to accompany your friends to the polls, if you're able! Being an informed ally helps.
posted by phunniemee at 8:23 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

>> Louis CK on the election (YT): Really excited to have the first mom in the White House

> Fucking A! When I quoted this, I went back and tried to make sure the link works here, too, because this went a long way toward making me feel better and I think everyone should (a) see and (b) share this sentiment.

Sarah Palin's a mom.
posted by farlukar at 8:24 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

jermsplan, can I cut & paste your excellent idea and share it to social media?
posted by cooker girl at 8:25 AM on November 2, 2016

Why is it necessary in this day and age for the President's spouse to have a title and ceremonial role?

The spouse of a President is a highly visible person (unless he or she takes somewhat extraordinary measures) and most likely wants to use that visibility. As seen over the last few weeks, the First Spouse can be an excellent surrogate.
posted by Etrigan at 8:26 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Sarah Palin's a mom

Stop trying to bring me down, farlukar (okay, point taken though ... I just liked it).
posted by theredpen at 8:27 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

now give me a minute to figure out how to apply that to the current election so I can pretend this isn't just derail.

I can't speak for the mods but discussions of intoxication strategy seem perfectly germane to me.
posted by contraption at 8:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

If you were looking for a single image to symbolize Trump's candidacy and everything it stands for, "VOTE TRUMP" spray painted on the side of a firebombed black church would pretty much do it.

It'd be a slapdash collage of that image with lots of MS Paint arrows and circles pointing at the fire damage and the spraypaint with unclickable URLs to Alex Jones sites and the title FALSE FLAG, posted by a red capped-Pepe from an apartment in Russia.

The image itself could come from any year in living memory, because black churches get burnt down in the South. That kind of framing could only be 2016.
posted by holgate at 8:31 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Wiki request: add reference to pie from this thread?
posted by eviemath at 8:35 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

At this late date do people STILL not know about the poll aggregator aggregator? Stop sucking on Nate Silver's fearteat for a hot sec and click on this instead please.

It's probably not a good sign that after reading this comment, I'm now wondering if there's an aggregator of the various poll aggregator aggregators.
posted by Nat "King" Cole Porter Wagoner at 8:38 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Sarah Palin's a mom

A lot of people don't know this, perhaps not even Sarah herself, but Sarah Palin wasn't actually running for President. I know, right? But it's true.

She was actually the running mate for a guy named John McCain, who you may remember from that time he told everyone at a fundraising dinner that then-teenage child Chelsea Clinton was ugly because her dad is Janet Reno. (I guess that means Hillary was still mom, tho.)
posted by phunniemee at 8:38 AM on November 2, 2016 [45 favorites]

That would be, what, triple digits on the "let's go to a sad mostly-white town and talk to some people who will talk about economic anxiety and also they have some thoughts on black and brown people", right? I'm sure that there are some towns even sadder that they didn't have a journo show up to stay at their motel or eat at their diner.

I think maybe also what some people (coastal youngsters especially) don't understand about rust belt Democrats "becoming Republicans" is that being a Democrat in different regions has different meanings. Western PA is the birthplace of the American labor movement for white people. Being a Democrat here has, for a long time, mostly meant that your daddy and your daddy's daddy was in a union. They were never socially liberal, they were never that into diversity--heck, there are Catholic churches across the street from other Catholic churches because the Poles couldn't deal with having mass with the Italians.

The only thing keeping small town rust belt "Democrats" from officially switching party affiliation is 1) it's kind of a pain and 2) tradition (grandpa was a precinct boss, etc...). They have been voting Republican for years.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:38 AM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

Trump's Health Plan: Pay Your Own Medical Bills Using Money You Saved
The candidate called a special ‘meeting’ to discuss the future of medicine. Here’s how that went.
posted by monospace at 8:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

Did anyone read New Yorker's recent profile of First-Time Voters? I'm sure they're not the only ones who did something like this, but this is the one I've read. What disturbs me about some (not all) of them is how their opinions are based on things that are really just factually inaccurate. Clinton doesn't want to take away your hunting rifle and your ability to hunt deer. And if you're going to despise Clinton because she lied, you should despise Trump for the same reason. To hold Trump up as this paragon of virtue while seeing Clinton as horribly corrupt just makes no sense.

I would like to think whoever spoke with these people made an attempt to educate them on certain things they were unaware of, but I guess that would defeat the purpose of the exercise. But these are the people - meaning everybody, all of us - who are deciding the future of our country. And so many politicians end up getting elected who just don't have any interest in serving the people who voted for them or really anyone but themselves and their buddies. It's obvious, but it doesn't keep it from happening again and again.
posted by wondermouse at 8:41 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Buzzfeed: Donald Trump’s Top “LGBT” Supporters Are Largely Gay White Men
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Nat "King" Cole Porter Wagoner: "It's probably not a good sign that after reading this comment, I'm now wondering if there's an aggregator of the various poll aggregator aggregators."

It's aggregators all the way down.
posted by octothorpe at 8:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Wiki request: add reference to pie from this thread?

Create an account and add it yourself! It's easy and fun! (Well, sort of fun.)
posted by zamboni at 8:46 AM on November 2, 2016

A friend of mine is writing an election article for the Hattiesburg American (Mississippi) and is having trouble finding a democrat willing to go on record for it. I told her that I will, but readers, I felt I had to ask my husband if he was comfortable with me doing that, because though I don't care about being "outed," I have a slight concern that it might impact him on his job. He's ok with it, but tells me that he actually already got outed himself there, and co-workers are simply shocked that he's voting Clinton AND owns guns. Mississippi, I love ya, but it never gets easier.
posted by thebrokedown at 8:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

Trump's Health Plan: Pay Your Own Medical Bills Using Money You Saved
The candidate called a special ‘meeting’ to discuss the future of medicine. Here’s how that went.

This is horrifying. I mean, I knew the campaign had a simplistic view of health care, but to be so thoroughly and stubbornly disconnected should be an instant dealbreaker for most Americans.

I've maxed out my HSA every year I could. When a medical disaster hit me this year, my whole HSA was gone in a matter of weeks, when my care was just beginning. Their "plan" is staggeringly unrealistic for any American with cancer, kidney failure, or expensive and continued medical needs.

Outrageous.
posted by mochapickle at 8:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [56 favorites]

I keep reminding myself that most people in the city live within walking distance of their polling place, so the main disruption is around fitting time to vote into a workday.

Thankfully, Tuesday's weather is supposed to be nice, so people who end up walking at least won't be freezing or drenched in rain if the strike is still going on. I hope employers are sympathetic.
posted by gladly at 8:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Nat "King" Cole Porter Wagoner: "It's probably not a good sign that after reading this comment, I'm now wondering if there's an aggregator of the various poll aggregator aggregators."

Keep Metafilter Meta
posted by OHenryPacey at 8:52 AM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Also Kitchen Confidential warned me not to eat brunch at a restaurant, but especially never to eat the hollandaise. I mostly stick by this.

You know, even if Teahouse Szechuan (MPLS-St Paul mefites, you should all go here, especially if we need to drown our sorrows in oils and starches after the election) uses up their old perishables on their weekend buffet-brunch thing, I do not care. Deliciousness beats all and will always beat all, and this is why I will go to brunch. Our food supply chain is like our political supply chain (see, I brought it back around) and if you spend all your time thinking about the underpinning realities that brought it to this point, you will never have a meal or a government.

I'd rather worry about politicians than brunch, basically - even a very good politician (with the exceptions of local rep Karen Clark and the late, sainted Senator Simon, also maybe Maxine Waters) will never give me as much happiness as even a fairly good brunch, so I am far more willing to give the brunch a pass.
posted by Frowner at 8:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

WTfuckingF again with the FBI. Now they're leaking bullshit trying to damage Democratic Senate candidates.

FBI investigating alleged donor scheme tied to Senate candidate

"The FBI is investigating an alleged illegal donation scheme involving a wealthy Saudi family that supports Democratic Florida Senate candidate Patrick Murphy.

"The Hill has found no evidence that Murphy himself was involved in, or even aware of, the alleged scheme. The Murphy campaign declined to say whether the candidate is aware of the FBI probe, but the campaign said neither Murphy nor his campaign staff is being investigated.

The Murphy campaign noted that a conservative super PAC earlier this year filed a complaint on the issue that the FBI is looking into.

“This complaint was written by a Republican super PAC willing to say anything to elect Marco Rubio,” said Murphy campaign spokesman Joshua Karp. “Neither Patrick nor any current or past employees have ever been contacted regarding this matter, and we are confident an examination of the facts will result in its dismissal.”
posted by chris24 at 8:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

IMO: Make Metafilter More Meta #MMMM
posted by Behemoth at 8:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

RE: Poke To The Polls -

My plan is sincere and if you feel it would in any way encourage people to vote by sharing the idea with your friends or social media, have at it!

(This is what I wrote on Facebook on July 12. Since then I started playing the game and understand it better, and the idea has stuck with me:

I don't really understand what Pokemon Go is, but the US Government should strongly incentivize Nintendo Of America to put whatever the cool things are all over every polling place in America on election day. Shoot, Hillary For America should offer hundreds of millions of dollars to Nintendo for this "Get Out The Youth Vote" plan.)
posted by jermsplan at 8:56 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump's Health Plan: Pay Your Own Medical Bills Using Money You Saved

Cheese and rice, the tone in that article is just beautiful.
posted by uncleozzy at 8:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

an aggregator of the various poll aggregator aggregators

yo dawg
posted by sandettie light vessel automatic at 8:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

So the Des Moines shooting suspect posted a YouTube video about how he was kicked out of a high-school football game last month for waving a Confederate flag in front of a bunch of black spectators. One of the shootings took place next to the same high school. There is a Trump sign in the yard of a house that is registered as belonging to him and which is currently being treated as a crime scene. (I hope everyone in the house is ok. Google suggests he has a history of domestic violence, and a lot of spree killings start with members of the suspect's family.) I really, really hope this isn't a sign of things to come.

This election is seriously fucking scary.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

Nat "King" Cole Porter Wagoner: "It's probably not a good sign that after reading this comment, I'm now wondering if there's an aggregator of the various poll aggregator aggregators."

Kneel before the Omega-gator
posted by crocomancer at 8:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

> IMO: Make Metafilter More Meta #MMMM

Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter: Metafilter:
posted by farlukar at 8:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

When the Dems get back the Senate I hope they investigate the SHIT out of the FBI and any Republican elected officials who may have conspired to violate the Hatch Act. I'd like some goddamn indictments, too.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [35 favorites]

WTfuckingF again with the FBI. Now they're leaking bullshit trying to damage Democratic Senate candidates.

If the FBI is going to act as a GOP Super-PAC they should have to disclose who paid for the contents of their advertising.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:03 AM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

This is from waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay upthread, but I had to respond to this:

I did have this evil thought *I could show them the movie Threads to convey the tensions of the cold war* and that is my brain totally fucking with me, because a) that would be really mean b) totally outside the scope of the class, and c) sort of speaks to my desire to shake up this mostly white group of I'd guess mostly sheltered students.

Ordinarily, I would be recommending that people avoid Threads because it is the kind of thing that would fuck your brain up with extreme prejudice. I had recurring nightmares about nuclear war for ten years, largely because of a single viewing of only part of Threads.

However - if there is a chance that showing some undecided voters Threads can in any way influence them to vote for Clinton - or at least vote against Trump - then I am going to say "yes, absolutely show them Threads, by all means."

It is, if you will, the nuclear option, but we live in desperate times.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:04 AM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Buzzfeed: Donald Trump’s Top “LGBT” Supporters Are Largely Gay White Men

Also water is wet.

The article's ending is a thing of horrific, spot-on-summary-of-these-assholes beauty:

“People can take Trump to task for plenty of things, but not the LGBT issue,” said Barron, emphasizing that Trump departs from years of anti-LGBT hostility from Republicans. “I feel like I’m driving a Rolls-Royce after years of driving a Yugo.”
posted by MCMikeNamara at 9:05 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Why is it necessary in this day and age for the President's spouse to have a title and ceremonial role? It feels a little monarchist and quite outdated to this Canadian.

Sadly, I suspect that the whole public perception of the role is going to change once there's a dude doing it. The role used to be, essentially, 'official presidential hostess.'

It's probably not a good sign that after reading this comment, I'm now wondering if there's an aggregator of the various poll aggregator aggregators.

After all the stuff I've been posting on Facebook to try to calm people down, particularly this and this, somebody referred to me as a poll aggregator aggregator aggregator.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:05 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Poll aggravator?
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:06 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Oh look, the mobster Trump denied knowing? Trump sat with him at Wrestlemania IV.

Video shows Trump with mob figure he denied knowing
posted by chris24 at 9:07 AM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

Oh heah so here is a great tool from RCP: Presidential Election - Comparing 2016 vs. 2012 vs. 2008 vs. 2004

Here's a screenshot of October 1 through the end of each of 2016, 2012, and 2008. Clinton is currently on par with Obama 2012 while Trump is trailing Romney 2012 by two points.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:08 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Why is it necessary in this day and age for the President's spouse to have a title and ceremonial role? It feels a little monarchist and quite outdated to this Canadian.

Sadly, I suspect that the whole public perception of the role is going to change once there's a dude doing it. The role used to be, essentially, 'official presidential hostess.'

Yeah the whole First Gentleman/First Spouse discussion makes me realize how stupid the whole First Lady thing even is.

We should just use their name. OMG 2 President Clintons!! Who cares.
posted by zutalors! at 9:09 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Man shouts at press for selling out "for a few shekels" at Trump rally in Miami
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Oh look, the mobster Trump denied knowing? Trump sat with him at Wrestlemania IV.

I bet that fucker was cheering for Greg "The Hammer" Valentine, too.
posted by Etrigan at 9:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

OMG 2 President Clintons!!

Presidents Clinton

*runs away*
posted by Behemoth at 9:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [58 favorites]

Aggregate aggregate aggregate aggregate buffalo electorate aggregate aggregate aggregate.
posted by perspicio at 9:11 AM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

How to Keep Trans Voters From Being Disenfranchised

Also: offer to accompany your friends to the polls, if you're able! Being an informed ally helps.

I still have a bunch of I'll Go With You one inch buttons (because buying a big mess of em paid for an equally big mess of em to be given away and I have impulse control issues and rarely leave the house) so if anyone wants one or two just memail me and I'll send em to you (in the US). Looks like I have about 17 to give away and I think an envelope and a single stamp will do it just fine.
posted by phearlez at 9:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Granpolloon
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Man shouts at press for selling out "for a few shekels" at Trump rally in Miami

Was about to post that one. Jesus Christ. This fucking election.
posted by Talez at 9:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Maybe HRC can just be President Rodham since she only added the Clinton since she got shit for it as first lady of Arkansas.

[I mean no not really but it would be cool]
posted by zutalors! at 9:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

OMG 2 President Clintons!! Who cares.

Puzzled Brit here: how come a former president (William Jefferson Clinton, for instance) is still a president?
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:13 AM on November 2, 2016

I bet that fucker was cheering for Greg "The Hammer" Valentine, too.

Ted DiBiase surely.
posted by sporkwort at 9:14 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

@DavidChalian:
BREAKING - new CNN/ORC polls:
AZ:
Trump 49
Clinton 44
NV:
Trump 49
Clinton 43
FL:
Clinton 49
Trump 47
PA
Clinton 48
Trump 44
posted by DynamiteToast at 9:14 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

They keep their most senior title for life. Same reason HRC is Secretary Clinton (only for the next six days hopefully cover your ears wrath atop the thing I am not talking to you)
posted by zutalors! at 9:14 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Teen Who Allegedly Got Weiner Sexts “Upset” With Comey
posted by Artw at 9:14 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

how come a former president (William Jefferson Clinton, for instance) is still a president?

You shag one lousy nation...
posted by uncleozzy at 9:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Seeking casting suggestions for the candidates' families and candidates for director.

I haven't seen Emma Thompson suggested for Hillary yet - it'd be a return to the part.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Puzzled Brit here: how come a former president (William Jefferson Clinton, for instance) is still a president?

It's a courtesy to refer to someone by the highest title achieved (unless they're currently serving in another official capacity)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

They NY Times shows good restraint in not including penis jokes in an article about Trump exaggerating the size of his buildings:

In 1979, as Mr. Trump inspected a model of the black-and-gold Fifth Avenue high-rise that would come to serve as his home, office, fortress and personal monument, he could find only one flaw to spoil the moment: the General Motors building, which, in real life, was 41 feet higher and a few blocks away from the future Trump Tower.

“My building looks a little small,” he said, according to Norman Brosterman, the model maker’s assistant at the time. Assured the scale was accurate, Mr. Trump had an inspiration on his next visit to the architectural workshop.

“Can you make my building taller?” Mr. Trump asked. No, he was told. “Well, can you make the G.M. building shorter?”

Mr. Trump marked the G.M. building at his preferred height with a pencil. Mr. Brosterman sawed off the top third, leaving Trump Tower — in the one-thirty-second-scale model, at least — the tallest in the neighborhood.

“Trump said, ‘Great,’ and left,” Mr. Brosterman recalled recently.

posted by peeedro at 9:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]

@JohnJHarwood
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"
posted by chris24 at 9:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Catching up on news from last week, (so pardon me if this was covered in the preceding thread) I've found a piece on last Thursday's (Oct. 27th) Democracy Now! (at about 43:45, alt link, .torrent, transcript) well worth watching, about integration and collaboration between the U.S. Border Patrol and "three percenter" paramilitary groups that discuss "hunting Mexicans" amongst themselves. This is an interview with Shane Bauer of Mother Jones who broke the story after infiltrating the militia (using his real name!) and provided its own video. Some funding for the investigation provided by the Puffin Foundation.

(DN! episode also provides considerable coverage and discussion of Syria makes up the rest of the episode, beyond the headlines, and seems important to what may happen there during the next few weeks.)

And wouldn't you know, we've been spending decades now streamlining the transfer of military hardware to law enforcement organizations.

I feel like, if Trump gets into power, we'll need something like the Doomsday Clock rating whether the U.S. is most similar from moment to moment to 1932 Germany or 1945 Nazi Germany. (Starting in 1932 pre-Reichstag-Fire on the possibly-flawed assumption that a Trump-controlled Republican regime would be most equivalent to the Nazi-led coalition government.)
posted by XMLicious at 9:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Greenville Church burned and spray painted "Vote Trump"

This is my hometown. I just. I.

What I'm feeling isn't election jitters like when I refresh 538 and there's bad news. It's something bigger. It's something I can't fit in all at once.

Greenville's had a lot of problems with its white people -- ignorant, snobbish, preferring segregration -- but I was always taught to be proud that we were never them. The Klan didn't have a hold on the town; that's because it was chased off by bigger moneyed interests, but still. We were wrong, but we weren't trash. Those people lived out in the country, in the hills, in trailers, not like us . . .

It's possible that the burning was an inside job. But the poison's in the well and there's no mistake. I hope to hell the community (governed by elected African Americans; money belonging to old white folks) can come together to condemn this. I am loath to see the sulking and recriminations that I am afraid will happen instead.
posted by Countess Elena at 9:21 AM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

Referring to them as "President whoever" or "Senator whoever" also helps the viewer at home remember who the person fucking is, although as an American I still don't know why the word "former" isn't in there somewhere. Especially when they give this glib line about "the most important title of this country, the title of citizen"
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 9:22 AM on November 2, 2016

I bet that fucker was cheering for Greg "The Hammer" Valentine, too.

Ted DiBiase surely.

Valentine was the Mike Pence of heels -- he was there, and you'd boo him because he was going up against someone you liked, but no one bought a ticket to see The Hammer get his ass kicked.
posted by Etrigan at 9:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I have a co-worker that wasn't going to vote because, "my vote doesn't matter." Yesterday I asked him to please vote because it matters to ME. He looked dubious. But this morning he came up and told he he'd voted yesterday after work! YAY! One small victory in Austin.
posted by a humble nudibranch at 9:25 AM on November 2, 2016 [96 favorites]

POTUS speaks. Obama Criticizes F.B.I. Director: ‘We Don’t Operate on Leaks’

“We don’t operate on incomplete information,” Mr. Obama said in an interview with CNN’s “Now This,” broadcast Wednesday. “We don’t operate on leaks. We operate based on concrete decisions that are made.”

“When this was investigated thoroughly the last time, the conclusion of the F.B.I., the conclusion of the Justice Department, the conclusion of repeated congressional investigations was that she had made some mistakes but that there wasn’t anything there that was prosecutable,” Mr. Obama said.

Declaring that he had “made a very deliberate effort to make sure that I don’t look like I’m meddling in what are supposed to be independent processes for making these assessments,” Mr. Obama nonetheless expressed confidence in Mrs. Clinton and her integrity.

Mr. Obama’s comments were somewhat surprising since he weighed in on the investigation last year before the F.B.I. had determined that neither Mrs. Clinton nor her aides would face charges for mishandling classified information that was found on the secretary of state’s private email server. The president’s comments angered F.B.I. agents.

posted by zachlipton at 9:26 AM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

Puzzled Brit here: how come a former president (William Jefferson Clinton, for instance) is still a president?

It's sort of like the Queen Mum.
posted by Preserver at 9:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jon Stewart rips Trump for past anti-Semitic attacks against him

"I think this guy's trying to let people know I'm a Jew and I think to myself, 'doesn't my face do that?'" Stewart joked.

video
posted by zachlipton at 9:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

"my vote doesn't matter."

"not with that attitude, it doesn't."
posted by ArgentCorvid at 9:28 AM on November 2, 2016

Paging corb to the thread.

Who would you report this to?
posted by Talez at 9:31 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

A disturbing picture.
posted by Oyéah at 9:34 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Some edgy young anarchists have put Crimethinc's "VOTE HERE" with an arrow pointing down into the bin stickers on trashcans across campus. This is why no one likes you, anarchists.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Re how to address former Presidents, governors, etc:

presidents

governors

which says that it's "the Honorable Forename Surname" in writing and "Mr/Mrs/Ms/Dr Surname" when addressed in speaking (this comes from someone who teaches protocol and etiquette to diplomats, so one presumes they have some idea what they're talking about).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:37 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is why no one likes you, anarchists.

That and their lack of fashion sense.
posted by Talez at 9:37 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

"After the police shooting, the Clinton campaign has canceled tonight's rally in Des Moines with Tim Kaine and Bill Clinton." --@thomaskaplan
posted by zachlipton at 9:39 AM on November 2, 2016

Some edgy young anarchists have put Crimethinc's "VOTE HERE" with an arrow pointing down into the bin stickers on trashcans across campus. This is why no one likes you, anarchists.

In fairness, anarchists mostly don't like Crimethinc.

(also seriously how are Crimethinc still a thing, haven't you kids got bored and gone back to your trust funds already)
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:39 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Justice Department to North Carolina: Stop Illegally Purging Black Voters from the Rolls

I don't expect many conservatives to get upset about this, but the silence from the supposedly sane and moderate ones is telling.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]

My girlfriend's campus had a spate of Bob Avakian communists going around telling people not to vote last week. The revolution is nigh and slightly depressed turnout will be its herald
posted by theodolite at 9:41 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

@RalstonReports: In CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton in Clark County by 1: 46-45. There's more chance that Sheldon Adelson gives $500 million to Priorities USA.

Clark County hasn't voted for a GOP nominee since 1988. Obama won it by almost 15 points in 2012.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

everybody had matching towels: Can someone just make a hollandaise thread or something so this one can get back to the election? Thanks.

Here you go. (I think the Hollandaise derail has probably ended by now, but it took me a while to whip this one up.)
posted by filthy light thief at 9:47 AM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

filthy light thief: "it took me a while to whip this one up"

Nice.
posted by boo_radley at 9:49 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

What is going on in Nevada?
posted by pointystick at 9:49 AM on November 2, 2016

So now we go fill the new Hollandaise sauce thread with a hundred comments about the election, right?
posted by zachlipton at 9:49 AM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

Clark County hasn't voted for a GOP nominee since 1988. Obama won it by almost 15 points in 2012.

Over 50,000 more Democrats have early voted in Clark County then Republicans. This number straight-up makes no sense.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm similarly against the whole 'former Presidents, Governors, etc keep their titles for life' thing. It feels contrary to the spirit of the Title of Nobility Clause, if not necessarily the letter.

Puzzled Brit here: how come a former president (William Jefferson Clinton, for instance) is still a president?

It's a courtesy to refer to someone by the highest title achieved (unless they're currently serving in another official capacity)

Style (manner of address)

A style of office or honorific is an official or legally recognized title. A style, by tradition or law, precedes a reference to a person who holds a post or political office . . .

An honorific can also be awarded to an individual in a personal capacity. Such styles are particularly associated with monarchies, where they may be used by a wife of an office holder or of a prince of the blood, for the duration of their marriage. They are also almost universally used for presidents in republics and in many countries for members of legislative bodies, higher-ranking judges and senior constitutional office holders.

In the USA
Most current and former elected federal and state officials and judges in the U.S. are styled "The Honorable [full name]" in writing, (e.g., "The Honorable Bill de Blasio, Mayor of the City of New York"). Many are addressed in conversation as "Mister [title]" or "Madam [title]" ("Mr. President," "Madam Mayor") or simply by (title)+(name) e.g., "Senator Jones" or "Commissioner Smith".

Continued use of a title after leaving office depends on the office:
Those of which there is only one at a time (e.g., President, Speaker, Governor, or Mayor) are only officially used by the current office holder.

However, titles for offices of which there are many concurrent office holders (e.g., Ambassador, Senator, Judge, Professor or military ranks, especially Colonel and above) are retained for life: A retired US Army general is addressed as "General (Name)" officially and socially for the rest of his or her life.

[. . . ]

In the case of the US President, while the title is officially dropped after leaving office — e.g., Dwight Eisenhower reverted to his prior style "General Eisenhower" in retirement — it is still widely used as an informal practice; e.g., Jimmy Carter is still often called President Carter.

Similarly, Governors may be addressed in later life as "Governor (Name)", particularly if running for further political office. Mitt Romney, for example, was frequently referred to as "Governor Romney" during his 2012 presidential campaign (he was addressed as such formally in the debates), despite leaving the office of Governor of Massachusetts in 2007.

posted by Herodios at 9:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

which says that it's "the Honorable Forename Surname" in writing and "Mr/Mrs/Ms/Dr Surname" when addressed in speaking (this comes from someone who teaches protocol and etiquette to diplomats, so one presumes they have some idea what they're talking about).

Hickey says "Courtesies, honors, and special forms of address are symbols of the power of the office. They belong to the office and to the citizens, not former office holders." while also saying that one should address correspondence to "The Honorable (Full name)". Elsewhere, he says that "Former ambassadors are addressed as Ambassador (Surname) for life."

He may have some idea what he's talking about, but he is a land of contrasts.
posted by Etrigan at 9:51 AM on November 2, 2016

That CNN Nevada poll apparently didn't poll enough Hispanic voters to break out the Clinton vs. Trump results among Hispanics. So I'm not going to put much stock in it.
posted by yasaman at 9:52 AM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

So, by Trump's son's estimation, Trump will just be Donald Trump, as The Presidency of the United States, is a step down for his dad.
posted by Oyéah at 9:53 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Who would you report this to?

Talez: Florida Secretary of State, Elections Division.

The mission of the Director’s Office is to provide statewide coordination and direction for the interpretation and enforcement of election laws, as required by the Florida Statutes

posted by Coventry at 9:56 AM on November 2, 2016

The next thread on grammar and etiquette will be about the election. the next thread about hollandaise sauce will be about grammar and etiquette.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

MetaFilter: stirring a bunch of sugar into warm butter and choking it down with a spoon
posted by Gelatin at 9:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Paging corb to the thread.

Who would you report this to?

I'm not sure you would really need to report it to anyone. It's important to remember that states get to decide how they determine to cast their electoral votes. If Florida were to enact laws declaring that they'll let any old goober cast a vote for President in their state, they can do so. That voter can't double-dip, but if they simply maintain a legal registration in Florida that's their right.

By all means, report it to Florida (if you have the actual names that are redacted out of that picture) and the person's resident state (to insure the person isn't registered and voting THERE) but it's possible no laws are being broken here.
posted by phearlez at 9:59 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

> My girlfriend's campus had a spate of Bob Avakian communists going around telling people not to vote last week. The revolution is nigh and slightly depressed turnout will be its herald.

That's absurd. The revolution can't be at hand; newspaper sales aren't anywhere near high enough yet!
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:00 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

A Union of Politics and News Ends With Both Contaminated

The decision by ABC News to hire George Stephanopoulos in 1996 tripped alarms throughout American journalism.

Mr. Stephanopoulos, a top aide to President Bill Clinton, was so fresh from the political battlefield that he still had blood on his shoes. Would he track it into newsrooms and broadcast studios, leaving a trail for others to follow?

“Government-to-press switcheroos do not bode well for news objectivity,” The Los Angeles Times television critic Howard Rosenberg wrote at the time. In The New York Times Magazine, Max Frankel called Mr. Stephanopoulos’s move another step in “the progressive collapse of the walls that traditionally separated news from propaganda,” which had been erected “to guard against all kinds of partisan contamination.”

Network news executives brushed it off as sanctimony from graybeards who didn’t get it. Their hiring of political operatives — who were becoming telegenic stars in their own right — continued apace.

Well, here we are. This week brought the news that CNN had cut ties to Donna Brazile, the interim chairwoman of the Democratic Party and a longtime paid political analyst for the network. They parted ways after leaked emails indicated that she had shared with Hillary Clinton’s campaign some possible questions for CNN-sponsored candidate events during the primaries.

It took 20 years, but the warnings have come true — the contamination has spread and the patient is looking sickly.

posted by zachlipton at 10:00 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hillary Clinton: I'm President Clinton, this is former President Clinton.
--
Bill Clinton: [on the phone] This is President Clinton. No, the other one.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:02 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

So my redneck sister sent me a very apologetic text "I'm so sorry" after I laid into her for her spate of hateful anti-Clinton BS texts she'd been sending. I like to think that my mefi-inspired threat to donate to Clinton every time she did so, helped.

Normally, I feel bad after I've told someone off. I do love my sister. But this time, I don't feel bad. She was over the line and harassing me when I had not done anything to her or even mentioned politics. I am always happy to stick to personal stuff with my family and leave politics out, but if they won't play nice, then I'm not going to be anyone's punching bag. I am riled up as hell over this election and I only have so much zen to employ, even for family.

So Thanksgiving might be interesting, but I don't care. Bring it.
posted by emjaybee at 10:03 AM on November 2, 2016 [74 favorites]

Here's my comment for the news article. I now am somewhat afraid for my house, husband, and kitties. But all it takes is good people to do nothing, right??

In the primary, I was a Sanders supporter. I liked his progressive ideas, and I had no strong feelings for Clinton either way. Once Sanders lost, I took a more careful look at Clinton, and frankly, I liked what I saw, so my vote for Clinton is not just a refutation of pretty much everything that Trump claims to stand for, but an enthusiastic vote for Hillary Clinton. Clinton has wanted this for a very long time and has conducted her life with that goal front and center. She has a track record that is laudable and underappreciated. I greatly admire her work as a champion of the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) which I saw first-hand aid low-income children in Mississippi when I was a children’s therapist. Clinton has been a voice for women throughout her career, and that is also an important factor in my vote for her. There has been a thirty-years smear campaign against Hilary Clinton, and yet she has continued on with her aims. For many of the complaints against her, there is no factual basis, and for the rest of things she is accused of, no one seemed to care when others behaved in exactly the same fashion.

Clinton’s campaign would be remarkable for its technological savvy and organization in any election year, but against Trump’s confused and anemic “get out the vote efforts,” there is simply no comparison. Clinton has admirers in the Republican party, and has worked well across the aisle. Clinton understands government and our democratic system and I don’t understand why people see experience and knowledge as disqualifying a person. I want someone who has political savvy in addition to exuberance for the office.

Finally, there are many things troubling about Donald Trump, but the main thing I would like to tell the people I know who are voting for him is: he will not do the things that you hope of him. If you think that he will stop abortion, I ask that you look at his past statements on that topic. If you think that he will end terrorism in our country, I ask that you look at the feasibility of a “wall,” and remind yourself of the democratic values of our country. If you feel that he speaks for you, I would ask that you examine how a man born into extreme wealth who refuses to pay his contracted labor represents you in your business dealings in any way.

I look forward to my historic vote for America’s first Madam President
posted by thebrokedown at 10:03 AM on November 2, 2016 [97 favorites]

Often read together: Kentucky Colonel

Kentucky colonel is the highest title of honor bestowed by the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Commissions for Kentucky colonels are given by the governor and the secretary of state to individuals in recognition of noteworthy accomplishments and outstanding service to a community, state or the nation. The sitting governor of Kentucky bestows the honor . . .

The title "Kentucky colonel" was formalized in 1813, but it was in informal use before that to refer to people with honored reputations, often related to military service in the American Revolution. It was often associated with landowners respected in their communities. . . .

Early colonels served military roles in the state. In the latter part of the 19th century, the position took on a more ceremonial function. Colonels in uniform attended functions at the Governor's mansion and stood as symbolic guards at state events. By the late 19th century, the title had become more of an honorary one. But, since commissioned Kentucky colonels are considered members of the Governor's Staff as his honorary aides-de-camp, all are entitled to the style of "Honorable" as indicated on their commission certificates. This is rarely used, however; Kentucky colonels are usually just referred to and addressed as "Colonel". In writing, usage is Kentucky colonel when the term is not being used as a specific title for an individual.

Governor Ruby Laffoon (1931 to 1935) dramatically increased the number of colonels by issuing more than 5,000 commissions; one of the most famous of these was restaurateur Harland David Sanders, whom Laffoon so commissioned in 1935. . .

The title of the founder and symbolic icon of the fast-food restaurant chain KFC (originally called Kentucky Fried Chicken), Colonel Harland Sanders, comes from his status as a Kentucky colonel. . .

Governor Happy Chandler [who followed Lafoon] issued only about a dozen new commissions. . . . Governor Keen Johnson [1935 to 1943] followed Chandler's lead, commissioning only those select individuals who were deemed to have exhibited noteworthy accomplishments and outstanding service to a community, state or the nation. Subsequent governors were typically much more liberal in issuing Kentucky colonel commissions.

posted by Herodios at 10:04 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'm a Kentucky Colonel. It's no big deal.
posted by valkane at 10:09 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

The next thread on grammar and etiquette will be about the election. the next thread about hollandaise sauce will be about grammar and etiquette.

Aaaah, niiice. This will become a true project of artistic research, where questions of ontology, epistemology and methodology all are intertwined, and the object of study is so elusive that every time we look we see something else, and the ultimate outcome is entirely open -- all this while the study as such at the end mayyy even become an artwork of its own.

(Sorry. Got a job interview on the 8th [yup] and am bogged down in theoretical literature about exactly this...)
posted by Namlit at 10:09 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

By all means, report it to Florida (if you have the actual names that are redacted out of that picture) and the person's resident state (to insure the person isn't registered and voting THERE) but it's possible no laws are being broken here.

Looks like there might be laws being broken here.

Here are the guidelines for military absentee voting: "Do I have to be registered to vote absentee?

Registration requirements vary from State to State. Most States require you to complete an absentee ballot application to start the absentee voting process. FVAP encourages the use of the Federal Post Card Application (FPCA) to start the absentee voting process as it is standardized for use across all States and territories and will extend your eligibility to receive a ballot for all federal elections in which you are eligible, based on State-specific guidelines. The FPCA acts as both a registration and absentee ballot request form."

Nothing about being allowed to register and/or vote (absentee or otherwise) in any state you want if you are active duty.

Here are the requirements to register to vote in Florida: "To Register in Florida, you must be:
•a U.S. citizen, •a Florida resident, •at least 18 years old (you may pre-register at 16 or 17, but cannot vote until you are 18). If you have been convicted of a felony, or if a court has found you to be mentally incapacitated as to your right to vote, you cannot register until your right to vote is restored. If you do not meet any ONE of these requirements, you are not eligible to register."

posted by cooker girl at 10:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Governor Ruby Laffoon...
Governor Happy Chandler...
Governor Keen Johnson

Hey early 20th century Kentucky, great job at electing a string of governors who definitely sound like the evil white politicians in a blaxploitation movie.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 10:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

What is going on in Nevada?

Guess who's learned that the laws don't apply to them?
posted by Pope Guilty at 10:13 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

The FBI partly based their investigation on Peter Schweizer’s book Clinton Cash.

Clinton Cash was funded by the Government Accountability Institute, a conservative nonprofit co-founded by Steve Bannon and was heavily promoted by Breitbart News, where Bannon was executive chairman before taking leave to become Donald Trump’s campaign CEO.

The book has already been shown to be full of errors and fabrications.

Republican activist and consultant Peter Schweizer's new book Clinton Cash, obtained by Media Matters ahead of its publication date, is a trainwreck of sloppy research and shoddy reporting that contains over twenty errors, fabrications, and distortions. Schweizer pushes conspiracies "based on little evidence" that are "inconsistent with the facts" and "false"; takes quotes "badly out of context"; excludes exculpatory information that undermines his claims; and falls for a fake press release.

posted by kirkaracha at 10:13 AM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]

Talez: Who would you report this to?

FYI - There's a strong incentive for military folks to change their state of registry to Florida if they're ever stationed there (and there's a lot of military training done in Florida) because Florida has no state income tax. So a lot of military folks end up as FL residents based on relatively short / tenuous connections but it's technically legal. The statement that "Active Duty can register to vote anywhere" is false but the bar to establish residency for Active Duty can be pretty low.
posted by macfly at 10:13 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Governor Ruby Laffoon...

Ruby Laffoon was an interesting Hon. f'sure. I can't fault him too much, though. He made one ancestor a Kentucky Colonel and pardoned two others, much to the consternation of respectable folks all over the Commonwealth.

posted by Herodios at 10:14 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm a Kentucky Colonel. It's no big deal.

I've had your chicken, it's not as good as it used to be.
posted by OHenryPacey at 10:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Presidents Clinton

I know this isn't an example of one, but can I just say that our weird little "improper pluralization of compound nouns that don't actually work like Attorneys General" (we need a better name for this) in-joke is really my favorite thing about this thread?
posted by zachlipton at 10:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

I somehow missed this but since the scumbag O'Keefe videos pop up now and again, I was surprised that Alex Jones offers $5k to anyone who disrupts a rally by calling Bill a rapist.

So, hypothesizing about disrupting rallies = Satan
Disrupting rallies for ca$h = Huhmerikkka

Okay then. Let that logic train roll, I guess.
posted by petebest at 10:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Metafilter: I've had your chicken, it's not as good as it used to be.
posted by Herodios at 10:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

try putting some mock grapefruit hollandaise sauce on it
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

The crowd cheers. Joe jokes. Aviators ftw.

@BraddJaffy
So Biden just slipped on his Ray-Bans in the middle of a speech slamming Trump [video]
posted by chris24 at 10:24 AM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

Yeah, since I moved up north, I haven't kept track. I know John Y. Brown ran it for a while, and was Kenny Rogers involved? Anyway, I think Yum! runs KFC now. So blame Yum!
posted by valkane at 10:24 AM on November 2, 2016

@PeterHamby
my point: this CNN poll doesn't have enough Hispanics to break out the Trump v Hillary # among Hispanics. In Nevada! [poll crosstabs]

@HeerJeet Retweeted Peter Hamby
You heard it hear first: The inability of public pollsters to capture Hispanic voters is going to be the big story next Wednesday & Thursday
posted by chris24 at 10:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

The next thread on grammar and etiquette will be about the election. the next thread about hollandaise sauce will be about grammar and etiquette.

When making brunch, be sure to run down the proper use of "His/Her Excellency". Wikipedia says it's used to address the governor of many of the states that were the original 13 colonies, but that is contradicted by this guide to Virginia protocol[pdf]: "Only three states, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and South Carolina have written into their laws that the title Excellency is to be used for their governor. In other states the use of this title is only a courtesy."
posted by peeedro at 10:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Checking in from my ~~deathbed~~ sickbed (uggggghhhhhhhh this cold, even hollandaise sounds unappealing) to report that I voted the other day in Colorado at my dining room table while watching America's Funniest Home Videos. I felt very American.
posted by mynameisluka at 10:29 AM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

When making brunch, be sure to run down the proper use of "His/Her Excellency". Wikipedia says it's used to address the governor of many of the states that were the original 13 colonies, but that is contradicted by this guide to Virginia protocol[pdf]: "Only three states, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and South Carolina have written into their laws that the title Excellency is to be used for their governor. In other states the use of this title is only a courtesy."

The irony of a society formed to get away from aristocrats, nobility, and the monarchy using honorifics. If I ever meet Charlie Baker I'll just go "G'day! How ya goin Chazza?"
posted by Talez at 10:32 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

"To Register in Florida, you must be:•a U.S. citizen, •a Florida resident

Yeah, how they choose to define who gets to call themselves a Florida resident is the key. The statute on it doesn't list anything about military service but subsection (7) expicitly says there can be other rules not enumerated there. There's a lot of latitude for people who maintain residences in other states - a direct result of courting snowbirds - so it wouldn't be out of character for Florida to shrug at folks who have ever had any military connection to the state.
posted by phearlez at 10:33 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Cast my vote on Halloween. This morning, I hear that Trump said that absentee ballots can be changed after the fact in MN, but the newsperson added that there was a deadline and it had already passed. Typical Trump. Wouldn't have changed my vote anyway.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:34 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Fuck Trump. He's back to calling out Katy Tur in his speech, who previously needed USSS protection to leave a rally after he did this.

@hollybdc
Trump calls out @KatyTurNBC from the stage in the middle of a riff bashing media and now this guy behind me is just endlessly taunting her
posted by chris24 at 10:34 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

So Biden just slipped on his Ray-Bans in the middle of a speech slamming Trump

Deal with it!
posted by dirigibleman at 10:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

So Biden just slipped on his Ray-Bans in the middle of a speech slamming Trump [video]

"Deal with it" GIF.

NOW.
posted by entropicamericana at 10:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Strong recommendation for everyone to file all "daily tracking polls" coming out this week right into the crapper where they belong.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Strong recommendation for everyone to file all "daily tracking polls" coming out this week right into the crapper where they belong.

Meanwhile on the front page of washingtonpost.com: Post-ABC Tracking poll finds race tied, as Trump opens up an 8-point edge on honesty. Tracking polls are a vital part of the horserace narrative.
posted by peeedro at 10:45 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

What 2016 has underlined for me, more than anything else, is that for right-wing whites in power, whether individuals or in groups, there are no consequences for illegal or "evil" actions. At all. They are literally above the law.

For example, realistically, what are the consequences for these members of the "white":

Elected officials who refuse to do their jobs
Cops who shoot people of color with impunity
An FBI and other security agencies which are nakedly partisan
Corporations who simply flaunt the law and regulation
Rich people who refuse to pay taxes and/or use their money to shout down the voices of the less fortunate

Answer: Nothing. Hell, half the people in the country will cheer you on!

Doing any of those things if you're left-leaning or have skin which isn't white is a life-changing (for the worse) or life-ending proposition. Life-ending!

"Dennis" was not wrong when he said "true power derives as a mandate from the masses". In this case, the mass that allows this state of affairs is the republican party, whose members are perfectly fine with all of this--even "principled" ones. Perhaps especially the "principled" ones, who, like "good cops", won't actually step forward and say "uh, we can't do this" because tribes or teams or just plain petty meanness, stupidity or fright.

People joke about the circular firing squad on the left, but that exists in part because there are consequences within the left for doing wrong.
posted by maxwelton at 10:45 AM on November 2, 2016 [61 favorites]

And, it looks like no more Spotify this week.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 10:45 AM on November 2, 2016

Cover the Trump campaign, they said. C'mon Katy it'll be a hoot, they said. Won't be a long assignment, they said
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:47 AM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

Trump opens up an 8-point edge on honesty. Tracking polls are a vital part of the horserace narrative.

This just in: Trump opens 6 point lead on hair brushing. Hillary Clinton still in the lead on putting dirty socks in the hamper and not on the floor.
posted by zutalors! at 10:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

The Wisconsin MU Law Poll* shows Hillary up 46% to Trump's 40% and with a significant Hillary lead in early voting.

*The MU poll gets credit among Wisconsinites for *sadly* projecting the Walker recall vote accurately.
posted by drezdn at 10:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

The gofundme for the burned church has already surpassed its funding goal.
posted by xyzzy at 10:49 AM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]

And, it looks like no more Spotify this week.

?
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 10:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

In Utah, it is Your Lack of Excellency. Pleased to meet you, Your Lack of Excellency...then they wait for you to finish the sentence, but that would become a book.
posted by Oyéah at 10:50 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

The Wisconsin MU Law Poll* shows Hillary up 46% to Trump's 40% and with a significant Hillary lead in early voting.

This is a huge poll since WI was really Trump's best chance of surprising and stealing a blue state.

And some other details from this poll make the email thing seem not such a big deal. Concern flared up, and then went away as the details came out.

@MULawPoll
Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot.

@MULawPoll
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%.
posted by chris24 at 10:52 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Spotify is running an anti-Trump ad of his worst misogyny, which isn't something I want in my ear four times an hour.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 10:52 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

That makes it worth it to shell out for the commercial-free option, if you ask me.
posted by Strange Interlude at 10:53 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oh look, Trump has advance knowledge of coming Wikileaks dumps. Hmmm...

@hollybdc
Trump says Wikileaks will be dumping more details today and that he will talk about it tmrw
posted by chris24 at 10:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

A local art house movie theater is showing Idiocracy on Election Night. My girlfriend (who has never seen it) and I are going. I hope the snack bar serves Extra Big-Ass Fries.
posted by Servo5678 at 10:56 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Wow, isn't it a huge misstep for Trump to admit advance knowledge of leaks? Might as well bring the Russian intelligence agent up on stage with him.
posted by Mitrovarr at 11:01 AM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]

Spotify is running an anti-Trump ad of his worst misogyny, which isn't something I want in my ear four times an hour.

Thanks, I was about to ask what was wrong with it because I've been listening to it all morning and was all 'oh no what? I don't get ads so haven't heard this. That would bug me if I did though.
posted by Jalliah at 11:02 AM on November 2, 2016

Now now guys we don't actually have proof that Russia is a country
posted by beerperson at 11:02 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

So Biden just slipped on his Ray-Bans in the middle of a speech slamming Trump [video]

"Deal with it" GIF.

NOW.

Either that, or some really lame joke punctuated by Roger Daltrey screaming "YEAAAAAAAAAAAAH!"
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:06 AM on November 2, 2016

The next thread on grammar and etiquette will be about the election. the next thread about hollandaise sauce will be about grammar and etiquette.

Can we also do terms of venery and pluralization of Latin vs. Greek root words
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 11:08 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

@washingtonpost: What is this election missing? Empathy for Trump voters. [real]

@jbouie: What this election is missing is anyone to take the agency of these voters and their affirmative choice for white nationalism seriously.

"I fear what might happen to me and my family if an ethno-nationalist movement seizes power."

"Why can't you have more empathy?"
posted by zombieflanders at 11:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [62 favorites]

Can we also do terms of venery and pluralization of Latin vs. Greek root words

It's clearly Sununi, not Sununus.
posted by chris24 at 11:10 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Fuckface VonClownstick's continued alliance with Roger Stone is insane considering his recent tweet that the NDA he signed may be unenforceable.

@RogerJStoneJr
It turns out the entity with which I signed a non-disclosure agreement for the #Trump campaign was never legally constituted #invalid

posted by xyzzy at 11:12 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

It's clearly Sununi, not Sununus.

Yeah, but what's the collective noun? Is it a "New Hampshire elected office" of Sununus? Oh, Sununi, sorry.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 11:13 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

To think 2016 still has 59 days left to keep punching us in the gut.
posted by drezdn at 11:14 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Johns Sununu
posted by persona at 11:15 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

A sum of Sununi?

If you're into German, Sunununen, unless they're all female, and then it's maybe Sunununinnen.
posted by LionIndex at 11:16 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Sununim
posted by poffin boffin at 11:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

What is this election missing? Empathy for Trump voters

I'm literally dead now.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 11:17 AM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

ugh I am suffering from severe election-induced emotional eating this morning

-gingerbread, 2 pieces
-pepper jack quesadilla
-pumpkin spice greek yogurt
-two handfuls blue corn tortilla chips
-1 serving halo top birthday cake ice cream with sprinkles
-italian meringue butter cookies just delivered to trader joe's and impossible to resist in my current trump-induced sadness

can we just skip to next tuesday please
posted by stolyarova at 11:18 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

If you're into German, Sunununen, unless they're all female, and then it's maybe Sunununinnen.

I'm almost afraid to ask what it would be in Finnish.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:18 AM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

To think 2016 still has 59 days left to keep punching us in the gut.

Hey, 1916 was pretty shitty for the US too - but 1917 put it to shame.
posted by Devonian at 11:19 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Teen Who Allegedly Got Weiner Sexts “Upset” With Comey

I just want to flag this one up again because it's worth some time:

The girl also wrote a scathing open letter to Comey, published in full by BuzzFeed News, in which she said his letter to Congress had brought her case “back into the media spotlight” and led to her being hounded by reporters.

“Why couldn’t your letter have waited until after the election, so I would not have to be the center of attention the last week of the election cycle?” she wrote.

“Anthony Weiner is the abuser. Your letter helped that abuse to continue. How can I rebuild my life when you have made finding out my ‘story’ the goal of every reporter?”
...
Her father told BuzzFeed News he has been left feeling “angry that the local folks had interviewed my daughter for six hours that same day about intimate details from her previous interactions with a pervert and then released the story of Weiner’s server before we could drive home from the site where she was interviewed.”

What’s more, the girl’s father says he believes the local FBI agents investigating her case were also unaware Comey was preparing to go public until they, too, read about it on Friday in the media. He said he based this view on the fact that agents contacted him only after the announcement to ask if he and his daughter “were okay, and asked if we had thought of leaving the area to avoid media scrutiny.”
...
The teenage girl says the past few days have left her feeling “confused.”

“I was having self-esteem issues when this whole thing started with Anthony Weiner,” the teenager said. “Now as a result of my frailty, this could take down the United States presidential election. I mean, come on, who’s in charge of America?”

The answer, increasingly, appears to be James Comey.
posted by zachlipton at 11:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [76 favorites]

Sununim . . . .

point down from the ceiling, whereas mununim point up from the floor.

posted by Herodios at 11:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Actually, doesn't advance knowledge of a hack info drop implicate Trump in a crime? It should be at least be enough to justify a seizure/search of his electronic devices, since he probably has evidence that could help identify the hacker.
posted by Mitrovarr at 11:20 AM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Even if Trump's just trolling, it'll get bites: "emails before females" is the narrative that the press has gladly bought into.
posted by holgate at 11:21 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

I only use Yiddish plurals. So a word ends with an s. Or an n. Or no change. Or the middle of the word changes. Or you stick "im" on the end. Or "os." You can do a few for the same word: the plural of eye is either oign or eygelekh, depending on your mood.

So, sunoigelekhn.
posted by maxsparber at 11:21 AM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Got another campaign funding email today, donated another few bucks, and was redirected to the thanks, would you like to donate again page that had these amount buttons:

Donate $25
Donate $29
Donate $33
Donate $37

On seeing those, some strange little lizard brain part of me flinched, because those all sound like great options. $25 is a nice, tidy number, a quarter of a hundred, and seems like a good amount to chip in. And $33's got double digits, that's kind of appealing. And then $29 and $37 are primes! The primes are what immediately drew my attention. A screen I would have closed almost instinctively got nearly a full minute more of my eyeballs because of their unusual donation amount choices.
posted by phunniemee at 11:21 AM on November 2, 2016 [29 favorites]

lizard brain

I don't think lizards are that into math
posted by zutalors! at 11:24 AM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

An excellent response to Bouie's take on that WaPo article:

It remains a stunning political choice to go to the state with the third largest black population and interview only whites voters.

The very premise of that political choice manipulates the very invisibility it compels & disconnects racism from how it effects us.

What she's asking for is moral immunity, disconnected from the material effect of threatened violence on its victims, not empathy.

Instead of calling this empathy purchased at gunpoint, she'd rather tell us to have no hard feelings for watching them point it.

posted by zombieflanders at 11:26 AM on November 2, 2016 [49 favorites]

Can the Executive Branch sue the Senate for not following the Judiciary Act of 1869, which sets the number of justices at nine?
posted by kirkaracha at 11:27 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Finally, there are many things troubling about Donald Trump, but the main thing I would like to tell the people I know who are voting for him is: he will not do the things that you hope of him. If you think that he will stop abortion, I ask that you look at his past statements on that topic. If you think that he will end terrorism in our country, I ask that you look at the feasibility of a “wall,” and remind yourself of the democratic values of our country. If you feel that he speaks for you, I would ask that you examine how a man born into extreme wealth who refuses to pay his contracted labor represents you in your business dealings in any way.

This is what gets me too. I really don't understand what some people see in Donald Trump's past or present that makes them believe he might do what he says he's going to. Do they know anything about him other than this character that he presents to them at his rallies, and his television personality as the host of a reality show and the fact that his name is plastered all over big, fancy things that may or may not be filing for bankruptcy?

I can understand certain reasons why some people are pro-Trump, although I don't agree with any of them. But the idea of him as this noble, powerful businessman who will seriously do great things for the middle class and the working class and this country overall... no.
posted by wondermouse at 11:28 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Holy crap, MSNBC went with BIDEN PUTS ON SUNGLASSES AT TAMPA RALLY as their chyron to his speech.
posted by chris24 at 11:29 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I don't think lizards are that into math

You would be wrong.
posted by phunniemee at 11:31 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Looks like this chyron needs...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■),
...to be dumber
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:31 AM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

Sure, absolutely nothing he actually said in his speech is as important as the fact that he started it without eyewear, but finished it with eyes properly shaded. Why bury that lede?
posted by Roommate at 11:33 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

late, but

sununoda
posted by kyrademon at 11:34 AM on November 2, 2016

The Quiet Ruthlessness of the Clinton Campaign

Clinton’s biggest mistakes, like setting up her private e-mail server, spring from excessive fear and caution, rather than excessive confidence. She works hard and doesn’t give up. She attends to details. She doesn’t have an exaggerated sense of her own powers. She seems unlikely to believe that she can remake vast swaths of the world with one or two bold strokes, as George W. Bush did after the 9/11 attacks. And, as this summer and fall have shown, she can expertly defenestrate an adversary when the situation calls for it. None of this may thrill those of us watching her campaign, but these aren’t bad qualities in a Presidential candidate, or, for that matter, in a President. One of the main lessons of 2016 is that we could do a lot worse.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:35 AM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

Holy crap, MSNBC went with BIDEN PUTS ON SUNGLASSES AT TAMPA RALLY as their chyron to his speech.

I suppose that's better than their first choice:

BIDEN WEARS SHADES, THROWS SHADE. THERE. ARE YOU MEME-HAPPY SHEEPLE HAPPY NOW? IDIOTS. GOD I LOATHE THE AVERAGE AMERICAN VOTER.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

Holy crap, MSNBC went with BIDEN PUTS ON SUNGLASSES AT TAMPA RALLY as their chyron to his speech.

Take that, CNN!

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:36 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

metafilter: she can expertly defenestrate an adversary
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:37 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

BREAKING: woman who sued Donald Trump for child rape breaks her silence today
posted by Roommate at 11:37 AM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

"Are we there yet?"
posted by entropicamericana at 11:37 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

@washingtonpost: What is this election missing? Empathy for Trump voters. [real]

Well, then, if it's an exercise in empathy the Post wants, here's some of what Trump voters have to say about the election:

"As a woman advocate, I still have no sympathy for Hillary Clinton. I’m sure if a woman were a godly person, I could be proud of that. But I would never be proud of Hillary. Unless she totally recanted, repented — and frankly, if she did that, she would reveal what’s she’s done, and she’d be in prison. She has a very dark side. I think Trump put it in good words, I just recently read, about a dark soul."

"Hillary and I don’t share the same values. I think we are all called to be good neighbors. But I do not believe the government has a right to tell me what I have to give to somebody else out of my own pocket. What ever happened to self-pride? If things get tough, maybe you get another little part-time job. Maybe you go to your boss and say, 'Hey, listen, things are hard. Can I work some overtime? What can I do?'"

" I heard that he said something about groping women, and I’m thinking, Okay, No. 1, I think that’d be great. I like getting groped! I’m heterosexual. I’m a woman, and when a guy gropes me, I get groping on them! I grope them back. Groping is a healthy thing to do. When you’re heterosexual, you grope, okay? It’s a good thing. Try it. I wonder if Nixon groped Pat."

"I think it’s a disgrace to have Clinton as our first woman president. She does not represent women at all — or me, as a woman, at all. I’m sorry. Her husband is such scum. I’ve never heard about Trump cheating. I know he’s had multiple marriages — which, in today’s society, who doesn’t?"

" I honestly don’t trust Hillary Clinton. I just feel like she’s a liar."

There's a vast difference between having empathy for one's fellow human beings and tolerating easily discredited assertions and cognitive dissonance in political opinions.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:38 AM on November 2, 2016 [45 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

Biden throws shade, GOP continues to fade, will Donald make his lemons into lemonade?
posted by Mayor West at 11:39 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump voters I feel fine not having much empathy for: The posse of backwards baseball hat cargo short smirking douchebags manning the new Trump table outside the library on campus.

The look on all of their faces is "Hurrrrrr man we sure are pissing people off! High five!"

Yeah, mission accomplished, assholes. Congratulations, I'm sure it was very taxing for you.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:40 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

spring from excessive fear and caution,

I like to think Hillary governs the way I play computer RPGs... Get your character 10 levels higher than anything you'll fight.
posted by drezdn at 11:41 AM on November 2, 2016 [52 favorites]

I think Trump put it in good words, I just recently read, about a dark soul.

When will Hillary address the allegations that she is a fragment of Manus and conspired to prevent Bill Clinton from linking the fire while he was President?
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:41 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I’m sure if a woman were a godly person, I could be proud of that.

I keep reading this as 'if a woman could be a godly person, I could be proud of that'.

I figure that is probably what they meant, anyway.

EVIL WOMEN FOR OFFICE 2016
posted by winna at 11:42 AM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

It's pretty neat, and I think ballot fusion is a great, achievable goal for folks who'd like to see third parties have more influence in the process.

Which is exactly why they got rid of it in most places! "Electoral fusion was once widespread in the United States. In the late nineteenth century, however, as minor political parties such as the Populist Party became increasingly successful in using fusion, state legislatures enacted bans against it. One Republican Minnesota state legislator was clear about what his party was trying to do: "We don't propose to allow the Democrats to make allies of the Populists, Prohibitionists, or any other party, and get up combination tickets against us. We can whip them single-handed, but don't intend to fight all creation.""

Fuckers. (I'll be voting Working Families)
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:42 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

"I fear what might happen to me and my family if an ethno-nationalist movement seizes power."

If fascism does overtake America, Arlie Hochschild's subjects will be tools of the takeover, not its masters. What she's showing is that you don't have to be explicitly racist or mysoginist to support Trump, just ignorant. And you fight ignorance with knowledge, not hostility.

If there's some way to bring America back from the brink which avoids building bridges to the dispossessed whom the Republican Party have co-opted, fine. But I don't know of such a way, and so Hochschild's work looks brave and important to me.
posted by Coventry at 11:42 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

We still doing Hamilton quotes?

"Oh, what a world! What a world! Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness?"
posted by phunniemee at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

I flaked on a tentative commitment to volunteer for the HRC campaign for an weekend opportunity at my side job. To assuage my anxiety and guilt, I want to donoate a chunk of my earnings from the weekend. To the HRC campaign? To a local campaign? I'm in Nevada. Should I just Hill to do the math and put the money where it would work best?
posted by skewed at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2016

ugh I am suffering from severe election-induced emotional eating this morning

I am suffering from a surfeit of sugar, thanks to Halloween, but last night discovered the glory that is PickaPeppa Sauce poured on a block of cream cheese, and then you spread that on a cracker. I think I'm just going to eat that until I feel better, you are welcome to join me.
posted by emjaybee at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

There's a strong incentive for military folks to change their state of registry to Florida if they're ever stationed there (and there's a lot of military training done in Florida) because Florida has no state income tax. So a lot of military folks end up as FL residents based on relatively short / tenuous connections but it's technically legal.

Also TX for the same reason.

The amusing flipside of this, I am reliably informed, was when the kids of people rotating through the Pentagon-and-associated had to pay out of state tuition to go to UVa/W+M even though they'd been living in the state for 3 or 4 years because their domicile was in FL. Or had to go to UF/FSU, which are fine but not at UVa/W+M level. I was at UVa just plain out of state, but lots of friends from NoVa had repeated chuckles about these folks' lack of medium-term planning.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

WHOOSH
posted by zombieflanders at 11:43 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump, Waking a ‘Sleeping Giant,’ Helps Clinton Build an Unlikely Firewall (NYT, Nov. 2, 2016)

By driving women, educated white voters and, most significantly, growing blocs of minorities away from the Republican Party, Mr. Trump has hastened social and political changes already well underway in two key regions, the interior West and the upper South, that not long ago tilted to the right.

Now, even as Hillary Clinton contends with inflamed Democratic anxiety over renewed scrutiny of her private email server, these once-red areas — a string of states that voted twice for George W. Bush — are providing an unexpected firewall for her campaign.

Democrats are already strongly confident of victory in three of them — Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — and believe that a fourth, North Carolina, is likely to break their way as well. Added to the party’s daunting advantage in the Electoral College, these states have impeded Mr. Trump’s path to amassing the 270 electoral votes needed to win, limiting his ability to exploit Mrs. Clinton’s late vulnerabilities and forcing him to scrounge for unlikely support in solidly Democratic places like Michigan and New Mexico.
...
Looking beyond the election, Republicans fear that Mr. Trump’s geographic dilemma could offer a grim glimpse of their party’s future: Unless they can win back constituencies he has driven away, the two fastest-growing regions of the country may continue to move decisively toward the Democrats.

Join us, joooiinnn uuussss (us being New Mexico).

And the GOP's grim future is my bright hope.
posted by filthy light thief at 11:44 AM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

ugh, hamilton
posted by poffin boffin at 11:44 AM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Bonus pull-quote:

“You’ve got to stop alienating large swaths of the electorate,” said Senator Cory Gardner, Republican of Colorado, who has withdrawn his support for Mr. Trump. “And I don’t just mean in the Hispanic community — I mean Hispanics, Asians, communities of color and women.”

Isn't that what the Post-2012 Autopsy Report said? Hmm.
posted by filthy light thief at 11:46 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I just voted for Clinton/Kaine in Austin TX. Line of > 20 people but the whole process took < 20 minutes. Pretty well organized and plenty of options for early voting locations.

Hopefully, some of my near panic at this election will be over soon.
posted by jclarkin at 11:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

when are you posting the new post, I don't want it to go up at the same time as my comprehensive rundown of the 2020 election
posted by beerperson at 11:48 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

I mean, what can you even do with this?

@ddale8:
In Orlando. Charles, 71, on why Trump: "He tells jt like it is. He has a deep-down concern for people. And I like his Christian views."
posted by chris24 at 11:49 AM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

He tells jt like it is. He has a deep-down concern for people. And I like his Christian views.

The only part of that statement which is true is the prepositions.
posted by suelac at 11:51 AM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

I'm perfectly OK with Margaret Hamilton.

If we veer into George Hamilton, though, either in words or in hue, we'll need to reconsider.
posted by mochapickle at 11:53 AM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

Summon all the courage you require
Raise a glass to freedom [from election threads]

For election day, I sort of like: And when my time is up, have I done enough?
posted by zachlipton at 11:54 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

The only part of that statement which is true is the prepositions.

Why not? The only part of the candidate that's true is the propositions.
posted by Etrigan at 11:54 AM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

We still doing Hamilton quotes?

"Oh, what a world! What a world!

And then for the election day one: WHAT A DAY! WHAT A LOVELY DAY!
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 11:55 AM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Surely "Winning is easy... governing is harder."
posted by Etrigan at 11:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I would like to propose Hamilton G Fantomos, myself. Perhaps: "Revenge, like gazpacho soup, is best served cold. Precise and merciless. "
posted by Existential Dread at 11:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Can the Executive Branch sue the Senate for not following the Judiciary Act of 1869, which sets the number of justices at nine?

A public policy analyst addressed a similar question, and the short answer is no.

I would also like to point out that Sununu's dad is Lebanese, so all your greekifications and latinizations seem invalid. But I suppose that in a world where the greeklatin hybrid words "dysfunction" and "aquaphobia" exist, all can be forgiven.
posted by xyzzy at 11:57 AM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Doktor Zed, there went my evens.
posted by INFJ at 11:57 AM on November 2, 2016

If we are doing Ha! Milton quotes:

I'd rather be a could-be if I cannot be an are; because a could-be is a maybe who is reaching for a star. I'd rather be a has-been than a might-have-been, by far; for a might have-been has never been, but a has was once an are.

Why are we honoring this man? Have we run out of human beings?
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:58 AM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I would like to propose Hamilton G Fantomos, myself. Perhaps: "Revenge, like gazpacho soup, is best served cold. Precise and merciless. "

Oh yeah, you can never have enough precision in your soup.
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

@washingtonpost: What is this election missing? Empathy for Trump voters. [real]

By the way, the article is an interview with Arlie Russell Hochschild, whose anthropological deep dive into the heart of Trump country in rural Louisiana is highly instructive but whose political nostrums here are naive at best. When she suggests that "liberals bear the bigger responsibility" in reaching out to Trump supporters that utterly ignores the greater responsibility sane Republicans have for cleaning up the mess the party is in. And when she says HRC should embark on a "Restoring Civility Project" for outreach, she should bear in mind that this would be the easiest thing for the Freedom Caucus, Fox News, and Trump TV to sabotage.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

If we wanted a quote from Emma, Lady Hamilton it would have to be in emoji to honor her fame at her Attitudes.
posted by winna at 12:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

And I like his Christian views. . . The only part of that statement which is true is the prepositions.

You only say that because Trump's rhetoric and behavior are completely antithetical to both the plain meaning and any reasonable interpretation of christ's teachings. But Christianity is a big-tent ideology, and isn't constrained by any single point of view, even that of Jesus. Modern american evangelical movements have looked within their hearts and found room to embrace racism, nationalism, and have rejected the old-fashioned, myopic focus on the poor and the sick.
posted by skewed at 12:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

HRC should embark on a "Restoring Civility Project"

Sounds like a job for the Department of Emotional Labor
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [133 favorites]

“I feel like I’m driving a Rolls-Royce after years of driving a Yugo.”

there's exercises Trump could do to remedy that.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 12:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I've been thinking a lot about empathy from both sides the last month or so. The thing about Trump voters is that they're the product of a system that largely forgot about them at best or deliberately turned them into an underclass at worst. When I was growing up (as a teenager back in the days of Bill Clinton being on the telly) we were told that developed economies were losing manufacturing but that's ok because the service economy was going to keep everybody in a job. But it turns out, the high paying union unskilled labor jobs left but what came online were low paying service positions. Your $30/hr equivalent union car builder replaced by a $9/hr Walmart shelf stocker. Nobody is bringing new manufacturing. You tell the West Virginian, Pennsylvanian, and Kentucky coal miners that you're going to usher in a glorious age of green manufacturing and energy but they want to know how they're going to put food on the family's table.

The Republicans have fucked them, no doubt. But the Republicans will happily slap everything with a veneer of respectfulness and intellectual dishonesty so they'll blame the Democrats. Obama then comes in with something like "cling to guns or religion" and the Democrats are insulting their personal beliefs. So why the fuck are they going to stop being red? Both sides are going to fuck them. At least the guy in the red tie is saying they should be able to put food on the table and provide for their families and that Jesus was an alright dude. It doesn't matter if his buddies decided to fuck them with right-to-starve laws. Those buddies coated it in bullshit that said buddies saved these voters' jobs.

Trump on the other hand is a different breed. He comes along, tells the people "you're getting a raw deal" against the Republican side and "they don't respect your beliefs" against the Democrat side. They've feel like they've been ignored and trodden on so long they don't care about civility or the system. They want to lash out and get something back for themselves for once and this is the only guy who has a fairly complete package.

How to fix it? It's probably not fixable. Not without some sort of come to Jesus moment on behalf of these statehouses in flyover country, the federal government plowing money into the areas and bringing hi-tech manufacturing businesses back to small towns. Close a coal mine in West Virgnia? Bring in a solar panel manufacturing plant into Morgantown. For stuff like this to work though everyone needs to treat each other with respect and negotiate in good faith. But I think the toxicity is too high to even think about it.

Maybe next Republic.
posted by Talez at 12:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

@ddale8:
In Orlando. Charles, 71, on why Trump: "He tells jt like it is. He has a deep-down concern for people. And I like his Christian views."

You ask the dude whether he likes grabbing women by the pussy without asking. Straight out, point blank, without blinking and dead pan. Depending on the response then you either show him to be an asshole for supporting a dude who thinks it okay to talk about doing very bad things or you find out that he is okay with grabbing pussies and you can let him know that's why you can't trust him or associate with him cause he's obviously a pervy old man.

And yes the point is to make the dude feel as uncomfortable as possible and make sure you don't use other euphanism for 'pussy'. If their President can say then they can damn well hear and embrace it.

Because hey it's good to tell it like it is right?
posted by Jalliah at 12:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [67 favorites]

The thing about Trump voters

Nothing about racism?

Nothing about racism at all
posted by zutalors! at 12:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

So, aside from Lisa Bloom's original tweet (which I saw because Scalzi retweeted it), I see practically no mention of the fact that Trump's accuser will be speaking out today. Nothing on the major news sites, very little on twitter. Why isn't this getting more attention? I get that the story until now has received very little coverage, mostly because his accuser is anonymous and impossible to speak to - but that's exactly why this seems like big news to me. It seems a much bigger deal on its face than Comey's stupid letter last week -but nothing. Why? Will the media even cover it live at all?
posted by Roommate at 12:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

The trend in recipes over the course of the election and their relationship to comfort and stress is going to be a real cornucopia for some future food studies grad student. I expect by Election Day we will be reduced to stirring a bunch of sugar into warm butter and choking it down with a spoon.

You forgot the rum.
posted by Lexica at 12:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Nothing about racism?

Nothing about racism at all

My personal opinion is that the racism is a byproduct of a feeling of disenfranchisement from the American dream rather than the core of the problem. Everyone's a racist in some way, shape or form. Some of us are able to cognitively identify these moments and self-correct or at least not take it as personal failure and become defensive when someone corrects us.

It's a symptom, not a cause. If people feel happy and content tribalism is a lot less an attractive proposition.
posted by Talez at 12:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

@RichardGarriott
My own family in Texas & others report illegal DEMANDS of photo IDs at Polls. beyond what is being commonly reported
posted by ymgve at 12:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Roommate: Donald Trump Is Accused Of Raping A 13-Year-Old. Why Haven’t The Media Covered It?
posted by mcdoublewide at 12:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

It's a symptom, not a cause. If people feel happy and content tribalism is a lot less an attractive proposition

What this election is missing is anyone to take the agency of these voters and their affirmative choice for white nationalism seriously
posted by zutalors! at 12:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [21 favorites]

mcdoublewide - yeah, I've seen that article before (minus the updates today). I get why it hasn't been covered much until now. But again, the fact that she is now publically coming forward seems kind of big to me. The media has certainly breathlessly speculated for days on end about much less. I haven't seen so much as a "we'll be covering it when it happens."
posted by Roommate at 12:18 PM on November 2, 2016

> It's a symptom, not a cause. If people feel happy and content tribalism is a lot less an attractive proposition.

That line of thought, though, leads directly to white socialist nonsense about how all forms of oppression are linked to capitalism and that therefore we must focus on smashing capitalism above all else.

It's possible for comfortable people to be godawful tribalists — recall that the median Trump voter during the primaries made upward of 70,000 a year. The chief source of their discontent isn't related to their economic conditions, but instead is related to thinking that a position of unconditional power and respect is theirs by birth, coupled with a deep hatred of the fact that the highest office in the land is currently held by a Black man (and will shortly be held by a woman).
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [42 favorites]

My personal opinion is that the racism is a byproduct of a feeling of disenfranchisement from the American dream rather than the core of the problem. Everyone's a racist in some way, shape or form. Some of us are able to cognitively identify these moments and self-correct or at least not take it as personal failure and become defensive when someone corrects us.

It's a symptom, not a cause. If people feel happy and content tribalism is a lot less an attractive proposition.

Perhaps some of it is, but some of it is clearly just plain old-fashioned racism and a party and candidate who pander to that racism. If you stop pandering to it and make clear statements that it's not ok, then you don't necessarily change what's in everybody's hearts, but you make the country a little bit more livable for many many millions of people.
posted by zachlipton at 12:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

The thing about Trump voters

You mean the LAX-playing white bros attending an R1 university that are manning the Trump booth that I ran by today? Those guys? No one has forgotten about them, believe me.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

#NextPost - I love the Hamilton titles, they make me smile. However, I don't have a perfect one (I would save the "winning is easy.." until there is an actual win). Maybe "tomorrow there will be more of us"?
posted by obliquity of the ecliptic at 12:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Urgh- Channel 4 news (UK) featuring a Russian diplomat suggesting that the USA would be more likely to disintegrate under Clinton, and Matt Frei stating that Hillary is getting "shriller". That along with completely misrepresenting the recent polls.

I'm so glad I've been following these threads, and that I've finally posted in one!
posted by threetwentytwo at 12:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

What's the basis for believing that Trump supporters are mostly white nationalists?

One might equally say of Clinton supporters "What this election is missing is anyone to take the agency of these voters and their affirmative choice for genocidal militaristic imperialism seriously," because that's the kind of foreign policy we're likely to get under her leadership. Personally, I think that's a heartbreaking but reasonable trade when the alternative is Trump, but it's easy to see how someone else might make similar compromises for Trump.
posted by Coventry at 12:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

@RichardGarriott
My own family in Texas & others report illegal DEMANDS of photo IDs at Polls. beyond what is being commonly reported

Lord British is having a problem voting in America? Pretty sure that's why we fought a war.
posted by Etrigan at 12:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

My personal opinion is that the racism is a byproduct of a feeling of disenfranchisement from the American dream rather than the core of the problem.

This is painting a turd in pastels.
posted by Mooski at 12:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I have a liberal friend who feels really awful for the Trump voter. He grew up poor in a socially conservative family who nonetheless voted Democrat because it was the "party of the working man," mostly on the strength of unions. But they don't feel like Democrats care about them anymore because they're winning a demographic route to power that doesn't even need to include them. From my friend's point of view, Democrats need to provide realistic and detailed answers to their problems. Telling a former coal miner that his future is in, say, manufacturing or installing Elon Musk's solar tiles sounds good, but such promises are often impractical if you delve into the details.

What Trump promises is the erosion of the power of the demographic that these voters feel disenfranchises them. From my point of view, it's inexcusable to ignore all of Trump's -isms and -phobias in an effort to regain notice from the powers that be, but Democrats would be stupid to ignore their desperation and anger.
posted by xyzzy at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

genocidal militaristic imperialism

Come on.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]

You might think, Mitrovarr, you might think. Who would we have do the investigation? Obviously not the FBI. The FBI may well have the skills, but it does not have the will to do its job. A Trump investigation (which includes Trump and his family) should have already happened several times during this election cycle but has not happened because of reasons.

So, I am honestly wondering who could be trusted to investigate impartially on a national and international level. There are just too many serious issues which appear to entangle Trump and foreign powers to just let it go as election talk and hijinks.
posted by Silverstone at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2016

What's the basis for believing that Trump supporters are mostly white nationalists?

If you haven't twigged that white nationalism is the de facto ideology of the GOP then I dunno what exactly to tell you.
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [59 favorites]

Bingo: Every Trump fan isn't a coal miner. The Blue-lives Matter old boys club KFC joke loving Italian-American lawyers that I've encountered in MA are united with deplorables from rural or rust belt communities by their love of Trump and what he represents: a rubuke to the left--to gay marriage, to BLM, to women wanting to be paid more and not degraded in casual jokes, to everything else. It's not about the economy this time (you are not stupid :)).
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [40 favorites]

What's the basis for believing that Trump supporters are mostly white nationalists?

Here's just one of the many articles that have been previously linked: Racial prejudice, not populism or authoritarianism, predicts support for Trump over Clinton
posted by Lexica at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

What's the basis for believing that Trump supporters are mostly white nationalists?

At best, they're mostly people who are okay supporting a candidate who is literally endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan, who started his campaign by tarring all Mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers and "not the best, believe me", who has a history of refusing to hire or rent to nonwhite people, who-- Ah, forget it. You're not looking to be convinced by facts either.
posted by Etrigan at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [29 favorites]

Perhaps some of it is, but some of it is clearly just plain old-fashioned racism and a party and candidate who pander to that racism. If you stop pandering to it and make clear statements that it's not ok, then you don't necessarily change what's in everybody's hearts, but you make the country a little bit more livable for many many millions of people.

I didn't say I agreed with it. Only that I try to understand it. I find it terrifying and abhorrent. But at the same time, I want to try to figure out why people are why they are like what they are.
posted by Talez at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

It seems the last batch of leaks tries to paint collusion between Clinton and DOJ. Any non wingnut analysis yet?
posted by codacorolla at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Anyway. Shout out to that WI poll. That's what's up for real. 60-40 hulk smash time.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

she says HRC should embark on a 'Restoring Civility Project' for outreach

How has the Clinton campaign been uncivil? The least civil thing from their campaign has been either direct quotes, audio, or video of Donald Trump saying horrible things.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

We have plenty of time to figure out where Trump voters came from after we minimize them as close to nothing as possible.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Doe’s attorney Lisa Bloom announced that the victim will break her silence at a press conference scheduled at her law office at 3 p.m. Pacific time.
posted by petebest at 12:30 PM on November 2, 2016

I don't get the Hamilton hate (or maybe I do, but I don't subscribe to it). Some #NextPost title suggestions:

I love obliquity's mention of "Tomorrow There'll Be More Of Us"
Also:
"I Want To Warn Against Partisan Fighting"
"I Don’t Wanna Fight, But I Won’t Apologize For Doing What’s Right"

Paraphrasing:
"It's 2016, Ladies, Tell Your Husbands, 'Vote For Her'!"
posted by Superplin at 12:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I didn't say I agreed with it. Only that I try to understand it

I don't mean to single you out but you're bringing up the same 'let's not mention racism' thing that has been repeated throughout this cycle and intentionally omits the racism behind Trump support. I don't think it is anything close to a real understanding. It is in fact denying their agency to not just admit that their motivation is racist.
posted by zutalors! at 12:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

My personal opinion is that the racism is a byproduct of a feeling of disenfranchisement from the American dream rather than the core of the problem.

This is just a retread of the "it's not racism, it's classism" argument, which is reductive and misses the actual meat of the problem. Racism and classism are intertwined and there's a lot of overlap, but they are not the same thing and if you can't see that then I think you need to spend more time listening to people of color.

Also, racism has been baked into this country's bones since before we were a country at all; Europeans started oppressing people of color and using race as a justification for imperialism, oppression, exploitation, genocide, and slavery pretty much the moment they arrived in the New World, when economic class didn't even really exist in a way that would be recognizable to us today.

The American Dream is a largely post-WWII phenomenon, and it was a racist dream to begin with because a big part of it involved Keeping Blacks In Their Place. The American Dream was only ever available to white people to begin with, and it existed for a generation at most. Racism has always been with us.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 12:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [53 favorites]

But at the same time, I want to try to figure out why people are why they are like what they are.

Because they are racists, is why. They believe that the color of their skin entitles them to the same economic and social advantages their ancestors have traditionally enjoyed; that this is proving to be untrue in 21st Century America confuses and enrages them. They believe that anyone who does not look like them, live in the same cultural milieu as them, or hold the same set of beliefs as them, is inferior to them.

Does that explain it well enough?
posted by Chrischris at 12:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

racism is a byproduct of a feeling of disenfranchisement from the American dream rather than the core of the problem

Yeah, no. Racism is the byproduct of three centuries of structural white supremacy and a culture that said that the poorest, vilest, most ignorant white person was better than the richest and most well-educated black person. That "American dream"? In the Depression and postwar era that was built on EXCLUDING anyone who wasn't white (mortgage redlining, fully-supported by the FHA, for instance). This stuff isn't ancient history. I'm younger than 40 and I am still old enough to remember vestiges of the pre-Civil Rights era racial hierarchy in the South...my grandmother had a black housekeeper, who'd walk a half a mile every morning from her shotgun shack on a red-dirt road; for most of that woman's life a job like that was probably the best she could hope for, because she wasn't going to get a decent education in the segregated schools of the time, wasn't going to go to college, and wasn't going to get hired to do anything else. Racism and an inherent idea of white social/economic/political superority is very much the core of the problem. This is some of the subtext of Trump's "make America great again" message. A lot of Trump supporters who're nostalgic for the good old days of the '50's and '60's have precisely this in mind.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [51 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

I dunno, but the election day thread itself should be "What Comes Next?"
posted by Gelatin at 12:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

I don't get the Hamilton hate

"Holy crap, you haven't seen Hamilton? You NEED to go!"
"Okay, I'll go get tickets!"
"Are you nuts? You can't get tickets to Hamilton!"
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

As a white guy, I get to see all kinds of thriving, economically secure, comfortable, outwardly contented people let fly with casual, cheerful, and oftentimes blisteringly horrible racism all the motherfucking time
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [59 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

Can we get back to politics? Please?
or
Shake hands with him! Charm her! It's 1800! Ladies, tell your husbands vote for Burr!
or
Are they going to keep on replacing whoever's in charge? If so, who's next?
or
They will tear each other into pieces/Jesus Christ, this will be fun
posted by tuesdayschild at 12:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

What's the basis for believing that Trump supporters are mostly white nationalists?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe the dozens of polls mentioned in this article, highlights of which include:

58% of all Trump supporters have unfavorable or worse views of Muslims.

70% of all Republicans agree with the sentiment of Trump's view on immigration, if not the phrasing.

In a Pew Research Center study, the value that correlated most to Trump support was "A growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens US values"

40-50% of all Trump supporters believe that black people are at least one of the following compared to white people: less intelligent, more lazy, more rude, more violent, and more criminal.

Fuck that.
posted by joyceanmachine at 12:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

If #nextpost is the last election thread before the election, "in the eye of a hurricane there is quiet, for just a moment" would be appropriate.

If not exactly accurate, given our inability to stop talking.

I have to admit, I would rather like "Sit DOWN Don, you fat motherf[BLEEP]!" as a title for the post-election thread, but there are several reasons why it's sub-ideal.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

I'm not good with words for meme-ing, but I made a gif of Joe putting on his shades for those of you who are.
posted by ashirys at 12:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [21 favorites]

We have plenty of time to figure out where Trump voters came from after we minimize them as close to nothing as possible.

Yeah, not going to happen. They'll still be there, waiting for the next Trump. The undisguised hatred and belittling of them will not win them over to the Democratic party. It just feeds the cycle.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 12:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

Don't be surprised when your history books mention me
posted by shothotbot at 12:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

I don't get the Hamilton hate

I don't think it's hate so much as oversaturation.

Anyway, there's apparently a scam going around twitter pretending to be a Hillary ad, attempting to disenfranchise voters by telling them they can vote by text. Ugh.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 12:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

OK well in other news that is not a shitstorm I created (and I apologize for that) but Jane Doe, the Trump child rape victim, is appearing today at 6pm EST and holding a press conference with her lawyers.
posted by Talez at 12:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Actually Superplin's paraphrase is better than the original quote that I had...
posted by tuesdayschild at 12:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Have we done "We have fought on like seventy-five different fronts" yet?
posted by timestep at 12:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm sorry, but that Washington Post article on Empathy for Trump voters is awful. Rehashed pap that's been talked about many, many times and misses many of the larger issues entirely, not least by assuming that people are the best judges of their own perceptions. Trump voters, of course, will say they aren't racist, they'd like to find common bond with liberals and all sorts of good sounding stuff, but it's only true in their own definitions of those things, which is where the breaKdown between outlooks always occurs, in what each side sees, how well informed they are, and what paths they follow to improve.

The problem is an asymmetrical one. Knowledge is more difficult o obtain than ignorance, being destructive is easier than being constructive, censorship of ideas has the edge on openness which allows opposing ideas to flourish and so on.

It isn't hard to understand the Trump voters, and sure, some of the underlying issues they face need to be addressed, not for them, but for the good of the country. They mostly won't appreciate it, because they mostly aren't attending to actual events, but their own fanfic version of them. They're frightened and don't understand the "outside" world very well anymore and they want the rest of us to show empathy by returning them to the fictional world they believe one time existed. That isn't possible, isn't desirable and isn't empathy that has any use. What might help is trying to educate them to actually engage with the world as it is, but that's what they see as attacks, not help. So empathy is fine, but it won't help bridge the divide if there is no acceptance of there being a real gulf in perception to begin with.
posted by gusottertrout at 12:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

Re: Hamilton hate, I'm glad I'm not the only one. FWIW, I grew to hate Hamilton with the flaming, white-hot intensity of a thousand suns after sitting down and attempting to listen to the music. Oh God, it was the most obnoxious faux over-produced Broadway hip-hop EVER. I hate the lead guy's voice, I hate the lyrics, I hate everything about it. I'd rather listen to Pat Boone than that show, and that's something. And the fact that I can't escape it makes it worse... so much worse.
posted by suburbanbeatnik at 12:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

The amusing flipside of this, I am reliably informed, was when the kids of people rotating through the Pentagon-and-associated had to pay out of state tuition to go to UVa/W+M even though they'd been living in the state for 3 or 4 years because their domicile was in FL. Or had to go to UF/FSU, which are fine but not at UVa/W+M level. I was at UVa just plain out of state, but lots of friends from NoVa had repeated chuckles about these folks' lack of medium-term planning.

If I may put on my worked-on-a-related-project-for-years hat, they either got bad advice or were careless in their declarations. Virginia law waives the domicile duration requirement for military folks, so if someone makes the commitment to transfer their domicile to Virginia they don't have to be a resident for a year before qualifying. So they could, in theory, do that the day before their kid matriculates.

Now, there's stuff in the law about intending to really put down ties, so someone who only gets around to transferring that domicile right then if they have been in Virginia for a decade - they might run afoul of this, and some schools are more hardassed than others about refusing folks - particularly if they know they can fill that seat with someone who's less full of shit or even better, someone who will pay out of state rates. George Mason University successfully won the suit brought by a student (after they completed their law schooling; insert your own joke here) who wanted out-of-state rates refunded. Mason pointed to the student's questionnaire answer indicating they didn't intend to stay in VA after graduation as proof of the lack of ties.

But realistically the schools tend to bend over backwards for family of military folks and there's some additional cultural "don't make shit harder for them; it can be bad publicity" sense there as well.

Maybe they were delighted at the prospect of getting the kids farther away - or the kids were more interested in going to Florida - and didn't appeal as stridently as they could have otherwise :)
posted by phearlez at 12:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Are they going to keep on replacing whoever's in charge? If so, who's next?

If this is not the election day thread title, I will be sad. I won't pull a poffin boffin though.
posted by zachlipton at 12:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Racial prejudice, not populism or authoritarianism, predicts support for Trump over Clinton

The deplorables have always been among us, Trump has just mobilized them is all. They were waiting for a leader who "says the things everyone is thinking," and when he started to tap into that poisonous vein they responded. Minimizing them is a generational effort; we need to teach our children to be better—to be accepting, caring, empathetic people. That is fundamentally how social change happens: not so much through changing minds, but through better educating new ones. Unfortunately, the deplorables are hard at work teaching racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and hatred even as we try to teach the opposite. Racism and other bigotry is not something that suddenly arises when economic times get rough; it's something that is handed down from parent to child. I've seen it happen; we all have.

When people talk about a culture war, that is what they really mean. Who will do a better job of passing their values on to the next generation? The bigots, or those who want a kinder, more inclusive, more just world? That's what it's about.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 12:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

> Oh God, it was the most obnoxious faux over-produced Broadway hip-hop EVER. I hate the lead guy's voice, I hate the lyrics, I hate everything about it. I'd rather listen to Pat Boone than that show, and that's something. And the fact that I can't escape it makes it worse... so much worse.

... I have the honor to be your obedient servant, Y dot Buick.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]

A. plenty of Trump supporters are not poor at all, as we have discussed at length. It's not the economy.

B. Hostility toward women is one of the strongest predictors of Trump support

C. Did you miss the part where a black church was burned and vandalized with a Trump slogan today? Or the endorsements of the KKK? I mean, if those aren't about race, what would be?
posted by emjaybee at 12:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

Look, Trump supporters are definitely a racist bunch: They mostly come from impoverished, poorly educated regions, and poverty and ignorance are highly predictive for racism. And they should be held to account for their racism. But it doesn't follow that Trump's fundamental appeal to them is white supremacism.

Yeah I mean I get it - his supporters are racist and his policies are racist, but we can't just conclude that his racist supporters are supporting his racist policies because they're racist.
posted by one_bean at 12:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [52 favorites]

Coventry -- Trump supporters are not themselves largely poor, though. It says so in the link in your comment. They come from regions with high poverty but personal poverty is not a good predictor of Trump voting.

They're racist or sexist or both. Not poor.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

And they should be held to account for their racism. But it doesn't follow that Trump's fundamental appeal to them is white supremacism.

This sort of gets down into the weeds of defining racism and haggling about whether something is racist only if it has an explicit racial goal or merely has disproportionate impact on folks of different races. Trump makes a ton of promises and plans that can only happen by causing unpleasant things to happen to non-whites. The absolute best you can say about it is that the people buying it don't realize that will be the upshot of getting what they want. The much more common truth is that they know and are okay with it.

Arguing that this doesn't make their primary motivation racism is kind of a poor hill to die on.
posted by phearlez at 12:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I won't pull a poffin boffin though.

We don't need to know about-- oh, you meant something else. Sorry. Carry on.
posted by Etrigan at 12:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Suburban voters make up a large chunk of Trump supporters, not all that badly educated in a scholastic sense, but often dirt ignorant by choice in a more social concept of the word.

But, yes, just saying "racist" doesn't actually solve much or answer the question since many whites are less racist enough to not vote for a white supremacist, so there is some larger cause effect going on that goes beyond racism directly to explain what makes some whites more prone to expressive racism than others.
posted by gusottertrout at 12:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

For a potential thread title, I'll put in:

Every day you fight, like you’re running out of time
posted by kyrademon at 12:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Sorry, Buick, if that's a show reference, I'm not going to get it, since I didn't listen to it all the way through.
posted by suburbanbeatnik at 12:53 PM on November 2, 2016

We shouldn't waste time trying to "understand" that Trumpism is actually about ethics in game journalism or what the fuck ever. It's all bullshit and lies anyway, and distracts from the business of getting shit done over republican opposition, which is the only thing that will count.
posted by Artw at 12:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [40 favorites]

I can definitely tell you that in the Massachusetts suburb where I live, with a median household income of $120,000/year, the overwhelming majority of my neighbors are inevitably going to turn out to vote for Trump. There are lots and lots and lots of rich people who are on board with his message.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 12:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

British town will burn 36-foot Donald Trump statue

The British can’t vote in U.S. elections, but they can burn a giant statue of a presidential candidate.

And that’s exactly what the Edenbridge Bonfire Society will do as part of an annual celebration.

The society, which was founded in 1928, hosts a bonfire of sorts every year around Nov. 5 to honor Guy Fawkes failed attempt to destroy Parliament in 1605.

A 36-foot statue of Donald Trump holding what appears to be Hillary Clinton's head will ablaze alongside a figure of Fawkes, a staple of the celebration, which also includes fireworks and a parade, according to AP.

Last year, the group burned a statue of FIFA president Sepp Blatter. Other past figures include Lance Armstrong and Wayne Rooney.

This kind of tomfoolery seems exactly like the kind of thing Wordshore would be involved with.
posted by zachlipton at 12:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

The thing about Trump voters is that they're the product of a system that largely forgot about them at best or deliberately turned them into an underclass at worst.

No. They're not.

In fact, Clinton leads Trump 51% to 31% among voters making under $30k/year.

Trump voters are richer and better educated than the average American, and a lot of what predicts whether someone is a Trump supporter is how high they score on measures of hostility to women. That measure predicts Trump support much better than "economic anxiety" or affinity toward authoriatrianism. It's as predictive as party affiliation.

This thing about this years election being a class rebuke to "the elites" is so wrong and so tedious. It's not based in fact, and while it claims to be a voice of sympathy for the underclass, the really galling thing is that it continues to ignore the the feelings of members of the actual underclass -- all the millions of people who earn under $30k, all the women who are still second-class citizens in this society, and all the people of color who are voting for Clinton.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 12:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [106 favorites]

‘Deplorable’ suspect draws blood from poll worker by hiding box cutter blades in Trump-Pence sign

An election worker in Plano, Texas was reportedly injured by box cutter blades that were hidden in a Trump-Pence campaign sign.

The Dallas Morning News reported that the sign was found zip-tied to an official polling site sign at 2800 East Spring Creek Parkway at Collin College.

According to KTVT, the sign was placed where the suspect knew that poll workers would have to remove it. And after a precinct official ordered the sign taken down, a volunteer was sliced open by the hidden box cutter blades. The blades drew blood but luckily the cuts were not serious.

County Democratic campaign chair Steve Spainhouer told KTVT that the incident was “deplorable.”

posted by zachlipton at 12:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [39 favorites]

[ ] Hamilton, yay!
[ ] Hamilton, arrgh!
[x] Hamilton, meh
posted by zakur at 1:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

The post-election thread title damn well better be "We won! We won! We won! We won!"
posted by whuppy at 1:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Arguing that this doesn't make their primary motivation racism is kind of a poor hill to die on.

It is if your objective is to defuse the frustration Trump is riding, which I think is what Hochschild is exploring in her book.

What is your basis for believing that America will commit genocide under Clinton's leadership?

Replace that with whatever negative aspects of the Obama administration's policies you like. It's not the point of my argument.
posted by Coventry at 1:01 PM on November 2, 2016

Clinton does not support genocide

She doesn't oppose it nearly as vigorously as I'd like, though. I voted for Clinton, but I'm certain she's OK with letting a little systematic murder slide if it means keeping the status quo nice and stable. If she actually gave a real shit about oppressed people, she'd have come out firmly against the Dakota Access Pipeline and the state-sponsored violence against peaceful indigenous protesters that has been happening at Standing Rock. Clinton is only anti-genocide to the extent that it doesn't seriously inconvenience the rich and powerful. This is hardly restricted to her—it's par for the course for the Democratic party elite—but let's not hold her up as some kind of paragon of righteousness.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 1:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Josh Marshall:
Archetypal Podesta emails story: Top Clinton Supporter Revealed to Have Helped Campaign ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by Atom Eyes at 1:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

As long as it's not "The world turned upside-down".
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 1:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

According to KTVT, the sign was placed where the suspect knew that poll workers would have to remove it. And after a precinct official ordered the sign taken down, a volunteer was sliced open by the hidden box cutter blades.

WHAT. THE. FUCK. This is like the 6th or 7th election related thing today that has made me go hulk smash. I already told a coworker to keep talking because I hadn't kicked anyone in the teeth yet today and was ready to go. November 9th can't come soon enough, fucking christ.
posted by phunniemee at 1:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

From Talking Points Memo:

New polls just out from Quinnipiac ...

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 – Trump 45, Johnson 2
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 – Trump 44, Johnson 3
OHIO: Trump 46 – Clinton 41, Johnson 5
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 – Trump 43, Johnson 3
posted by sapere aude at 1:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

let's not hold her up as some kind of paragon of righteousness

that's moving the goalpost from the original comment, that said if Trump supporters support white nationalism it's fair to say that Clinton supporters support genocide.
posted by zutalors! at 1:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

DAMMIT OHIO. Fucking third party supporters. I just DO NOT KNOW what to do anymore.
posted by cooker girl at 1:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Replace that with whatever negative aspects of the Obama administration's policies you like. It's not the point of my argument.

"genocide" is not a great placeholder for "some thing you don't agree with, could be whatever"
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [55 favorites]

I don't think Ohio has much to do with third-party support. Isn't it just turning into West Virginia?
posted by argybarg at 1:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

White nationalism isn't a "negative aspect" of Trump's campaign, it basically is the campaign.
posted by zutalors! at 1:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

Nah, my comment was tangential, just a reaction to the statement that "Clinton does not support genocide." It wasn't really intended as a response, more of an aside.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 1:07 PM on November 2, 2016

Demographics are not being kind to Ohio.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

It is if your objective is to defuse the frustration Trump is riding, which I think is what Hochschild is exploring in her book.

Why is it incumbent on the targets of his base's rage to defuse their frustration? This is pure victim-blaming, and signals to his supporters that they are not only right to be frustrated, but that their frustration can give them what they want.
posted by tonycpsu at 1:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [43 favorites]

If we'd just be nicer, they wouldn't have to hit us. Why are we always making them so angry?
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [79 favorites]

Would Trump supporters going and fucking themselves defuse their frustration? Because that would be my advice.
posted by Cookiebastard at 1:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

I don't think Ohio has much to do with third-party support. Isn't it just turning into West Virginia?

Large swaths of Ohio have always been West Virginia, or Kentucky, or Southwest Pennsylvania. The urban centers of Cleveland and Columbus seem to be losing out to the rest of the state this year, sad to say.
posted by Surely This at 1:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

If she actually gave a real shit about oppressed people, she'd have come out firmly against the Dakota Access Pipeline and the state-sponsored violence against peaceful indigenous protesters that has been happening at Standing Rock.

Now that Obama has clarified his policy the weak DAPL statement makes sense in context. He's got the Army Corps of Engineers looking for a pipeline route that doesn't cross through the contested territory.
posted by xyzzy at 1:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Serious question. Can anybody posit a serious theory as to how a Cleveland win or loss in the World Series could move polling in either direction in a statistically significant way?

Go Cubs!
posted by TwoWordReview at 1:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

But it doesn't follow that Trump's fundamental appeal to them is white supremacism.

Then what is it? We've all given you one that pretty strongly explains the phenomena and one that you even granted. If you've got a better one, lay it on us.
posted by chris24 at 1:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Well, there's always male supremacism.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 1:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I don't think Ohio has much to do with third-party support. Isn't it just turning into West Virginia?

It's West Virginia + Cleveland.
posted by Talez at 1:20 PM on November 2, 2016

I'm starting to see pieces on how we will have to "heal" after this election, and while maybe individually that's true, I think it's too soon to talk of healing from what we are suffering. You can't heal from the disease while you're still running a fever and puking your guts out, and that's where we are right now. We've got a lot more recovery ahead of us, and it's not at all a sure thing that we'll make it.
posted by emjaybee at 1:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

> Now that Obama has clarified his policy the weak DAPL statement makes sense in context. He's got the Army Corps of Engineers looking for a pipeline route that doesn't cross through the contested territory.

The only other plausible potential route, as far as I know, was rejected early in the process because of the severe risk it presents to Bismarck's water supply.

which like on the one hand, the nice white folks of Bismarck are so enthusiastically in support of the pipeline (or at least, the pipeline as currently routed) that it would be fitting if it poisoned their water instead of the water on the reservation, but on the other hand it's best for literally everyone that the pipeline not get built at all.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

I don't think Ohio has much to do with third-party support. Isn't it just turning into West Virginia?

It's West Virginia + Cleveland.

If Ohio is no longer a swing state, I'm happy to replace it with TEXAS in the coming years.

(Yeah, it doesn't fix this election, but it looks good for the future--if we have one.)
posted by chonus at 1:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

New Heavy-Duty Voting Machine Allows Americans To Take Out Frustration On It Before Casting Ballot

[fake]
posted by Cookiebastard at 1:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

If anyone is near the American Museum of Natural History tonight, Sam Wang of PEC and Josh Katz of NYT Upshot are speaking on the topic of the science of predicting elections. Doors open at 6:30, presentation at 7pm. Free admission.

Would love to hear some feedback from anyone that goes.

edit: Josh Katz won't be there now
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:24 PM on November 2, 2016

Serious question. Can anybody posit a serious theory as to how a Cleveland win or loss in the World Series could move polling in either direction in a statistically significant way?

Voters are more likely to be satisfied with the status quo after a home team win. This applies to regular season games, so you have to imagine a World Series championship would move the needle.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

chris24: Then what is it?

Trump is promising (falsely, I believe) to solve this:

Trump supporters might not be experiencing acute economic distress, but they are living in places that lack economic opportunity for the next generation.

posted by Coventry at 1:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I was so happy that Ohio turned blue the last two elections. I'd like to keep living in a blue state, please. I mean, it was just barely blue, but I was proud of my state. I don't want to be ashamed.
posted by cooker girl at 1:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Guys. Guys. I finally got added to one of those secret Hillary facebook groups I've been reading so much about. YOU WOULD NOT EVEN BELIEVE! So many women! And not just the usual local suspects like Democratic precinct committeewomen and Urban League activists, or non-political friends the Junior Leaguers and PTO peeps, but people I had NO IDEA supported Hillary like prominent female Republicans! Wives of prominent male Republicans! Pro-life Catholics! Even a Bernie-or-Buster!

I'm suddenly feeling really, really good.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 1:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [114 favorites]

cjelli, I don't have the bandwidth to argue about that at the moment, and it would take us very far afield from the topic. Sorry.
posted by Coventry at 1:27 PM on November 2, 2016

WaPo: After another release of documents, FBI finds itself caught in a partisan fray

Agency officials said the tweets were automatically generated, a function of the website that they said had not been working since last year but that was recently fixed when the site was upgraded.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:28 PM on November 2, 2016

In re white nationalism:

People might find David Roediger's Wages of Whiteness and other works of interest, as well as Cheryl Harris's essay Whiteness As Property. (Google for PDF - I am having trouble linking one.)

I am the most familiar with the Roediger (and I had a chance to take some classes with him, plus was in some activist stuff he did when he taught at the UMN - he is super nice and I'm still peeved, years later, that we let the U of I poach him away.) But the point is that his work talks about the many kinds of wages of whiteness, material, juridical and psychological. White nationalists are white nationalists not just out of an abstract hate, ignorance or anxiety but out of the desire to do others down in order to keep benefits that they are aware they're getting. The "wages of whiteness" or the value of whiteness that makes it "property" are what white nationalists actively want to protect. They're opposed to, basically, the redistribution of racial power. It is no surprise that they are opposed to the redistribution of other forms of power as well.

To what degree is this fully conscious? I think that a lot of it it is pretty conscious, because you can get people going pretty easily about how awful affirmative action is, or how "those people" don't deserve what they get. That's conscious white nationalism. Some of it is unconscious, like when white people (all of us, generally) have an unconscious expectation that we will be listened to with sympathy, served first when there's no clear order of service, be given the benefit of the doubt, etc. Some of it is de facto but neither conscious nor unconscious - like, I literally had no idea until I was in my twenties that Social Security, the GI Bill, etc were skewed toward white people. I truly thought that all workers got Social Security, the GI Bill was the same for everyone, etc. So I benefited from white nationalism but in total ignorance of that fact.

But anyway, when white people want to keep the benefits of whiteness - not just access the benefits of whiteness in ignorance or accept white privilege out of unconscious expectation - that's white nationalism. You don't have to be frothing with hate, you just have to want to keep white privilege while having some kind of understanding that not everyone has the privileges you enjoy.
posted by Frowner at 1:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

The whole respecting impoverished Republicans argument, before you even include Trump and racism, always runs something like this:

1) These people want a better life and feel they aren't getting it.
2) They want to vote for a party with economicaly ruinous policies who will make everyones life worse.
3) They want to be respected for that even though 2 is blatantly in contradiction to 1 and everyones kneejerk reaction is going to be to call them dumbasses.

It's a tough sell, TBH. And that's before you get to them not being that bad off and mainly concerned with fucking over women and minorities.
posted by Artw at 1:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

So my question was, what is your evidence that Clinton's presidency would commit genocide?

Clinton rules, you don't need evidence.
posted by zutalors! at 1:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

@conorsen
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:

CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never
posted by chris24 at 1:31 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

I think it's best to take Trump voters at their word when they say the primary appeal is his anti-establishment posture, but that's a distinction without a difference when the specific establishment he's against is the liberal-politics-entertainment complex, and they see it as one side of the culture war.

For a while now I've been calling it "identity-based anxiety" instead of "economic anxiety", because economic status does play into this, but I really think the key connection is the culture war and all its challenges to this specific cultural identity. And it's super weird to be using "culture war" as if it's a real thing but it kind of is. Ever since BLM I kind of feel like we're at war.

A lot of times I feel like the economic anxiety and the "economic anxiety" are two separate phenomenons. But they seem to be embodied in the same people right now, so again, distinction without a difference.

I'm pretty sure there's a piece somewhere about Trump(ism) creating a "notional white identity". At the very least, we're agreeing on at least three axes of intersection: white, male, not urban, and (in theory) blue-collar - that drills down to a pretty specific culture.

As an aside, we've run over the "Trump voters make slightly more on average than Clinton voters" a couple times now; but that's kind of ... an oversimplification, and it's getting pretty frustrating for me. I'm pretty sure the Trumpy people making $70,000 a year identify as blue-collar, and may well be blue-collar workers, in a good union job after several raises. Like, a police officer, maybe? I think that's about what they get paid. That's a lot more than, for example, an adjunct professor, a secretary, or a first-year programmer; all of which would be considered white-collar. But moreover, wealth means different things in different places. It's easier to own property out in the sticks. But it's harder to get internet, it's harder to participate in the culture - there's a huge amount of public wealth in (for example) New York City, which even the poorest workers can tap into.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 1:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

I have no idea how that "defuses the frustrations" but that really wasn't my intent anyway
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 1:35 PM on November 2, 2016

You Can't Tip a Buick, if I understand it correctly, Obama needs some sort of justification to stall the process while various legal issues are addressed. During the interview excerpted last night on MSNBC, he mentioned land rights of indigenous people, calling them the first Americans.

Having said that, I do think that both Hillary and Obama should advocate sending the DoJ to investigate apparent civil rights violations.
posted by xyzzy at 1:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

For the next post, I propose the "GOTV" themed title:

Tell your brother that he’s gotta rise up
Tell your sister that she's gotta rise up
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

The undisguised hatred and belittling of them will not win them over to the Democratic party. It just feeds the cycle.

Frankly, I'm uninterested in winning over the one (1) Trump supporter that I know in real life.

I mean, God bless the people who take that heavy emotional work on, but the one I know is a belligerent, narrowminded, willfully ignorant white male bully who belittles his wife. We were at a corporate-as-fuck Christmas party together, and we end up chatting as the spouses of people who work together. Because I say three nice words to him, he feels like it's OK to start dropping racist bullshit about Filipino people to me.

I'm East Asian, for the record.

But not Filipino. And was the only visible minority in the room at the time.

This guy threw his own parents out of the house for arguing with him about Trump. His reactionary support of Trump has driven his Democrat-voting wife to tears and serious talk about whether she can have children with this man. And he just keeps fucking doubling down, all the fucking time.

So fuck him, and his racism and his misogyny and his willful ignorance, and his beautiful suburban historical house with a shed of fancy motorsports toys and expensive racing cycling gear, paid for by a combo of his highly skilled government job and his wife's corporate job.
posted by joyceanmachine at 1:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [76 favorites]

serious talk about whether she can have children with this man

She should not. Full stop. Help her get there. Seriously.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

"Welcome to the present; we're running a real nation."
posted by lauranesson at 1:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

I know Hamilton isn't everyone's harbor of tea, but for many of us, it's been a lifeline this election season. The way it frames nonwhites and immigrants owning the founding ideals of the nation is a powerful counterweight to Trumpism, and its widespread popularity is heartening. Sure, it's not unproblematic, but for its fans, it shows off what America can be: diverse, hopeful, unimaginable. So you can hate it, or not care about it, that's fine. Yes, I have reasons for shame. But I have not committed treason and sullied my good name.
posted by rikschell at 1:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [63 favorites]

showbiz_liz: “After all the stuff I've been posting on Facebook to try to calm people down...”

Why? What's the point of trying to calm people down? Democrats are already clearly voting less than they did four and eight years ago. They're calm enough, believe me. That's not me saying TRUMP'S GONNA WIN, THE SKY IS FALLING! – that's me saying, don't depress turnout, because a very strong win, particularly in the popular vote, is going to be pretty valuable for Clinton going in. So shouldn't we be stoking the fires, instead of reassuring and relaxing people?
posted by koeselitz at 1:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

yeah, i got a friend request from someone i remember as a decent and cool person who dropped off my radar about 25 years ago. i accepted, headed to his timeline, and 10 seconds later blocked his ass. wtf is wrong with people?
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 1:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I remember listening to a podcast right at the peak of the credit crunch — probably Planet Money? — where someone was asked what the possible long-term consequences of the crisis might be, and he said something like “well, the Great Depression led to the rise of Fascism and World War Two”. And I was quite taken aback and thought ‘surely that’s ridiculous hyperbole’. But I’ve thought about it regularly since as various right-wing groups have bubbled up across Europe and the US.

Which isn’t to say that a bad economy is somehow a sufficient explanation for the rise of Donald Trump. Clearly the racism, misogyny, nativism, and authoritarianism have always been major strands in American society*. But maybe it’s years of a bad economy which brings it to a boil. It’s not that people aren’t full of prejudices in the good years, but maybe they don’t seem as urgent.

Perhaps it’s an academic argument. It certainly doesn’t make the racism etc any less real.

*and other countries as well, I'm not singling out the US.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 1:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

If we'd just be nicer, they wouldn't have to hit us. Why are we always making them so angry?
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:09 PM

You just reminded me of something. Right after the Comey leak, Paul Ryan came out with: "She brought it on herself." This really bothered me at the time but I was too busy to figure out why. Yesterday it popped into my head and I realized it was because that is what wife abusers say just before they beat up their wives. That is what people say about rape victims, "She brought it on herself by wearing a short skirt, by going to that frat party, by walking down that dark street..." Victim blaming at its finest, purest form.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 1:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [51 favorites]

Frankly, I'm uninterested in winning over the one (1) Trump supporter that I know in real life.

I've got one, too. I almost had him converted to Johnson, but at the last minute he feinted and voted Trump on a NY absentee ballot. My argument for Johnson was that his social centrism better reflected the needs of our actual family, which includes gay people, disabled people, and people of color. Ultimately, he decided that Hillary is just too evil and untrustworthy and that Trump was the only valid opposition ticket. It was intensely disheartening.
posted by xyzzy at 1:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

joyceanmachine: "Hostile sexism: is apparently the strongest predictor of support for Trump. From a Vox article summarizing: "Wayne, Valentino, and Oceno’s research, conducted in June, found hostility toward women was a major factor, predicting support for Smith more strongly than authoritarian attitudes and about as well as racial prejudice."

apologize if that's already been linked in the thread, I did not see it

In a sea of horrifying campaign season nastiness, this is the straw that broke my back.
posted by crush-onastick at 1:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Five Reasons Not to Panic About Hillary Clinton Right Now

There are plenty of justifications for losing sleep ahead of Election Day. But five key indicators tell us Hillary Clinton is still the favorite to win.
Early voting
The Electoral College math
Latino turnout seems to be going through the roof
Black turnout should spike on Election Day
Ground game

posted by kirkaracha at 1:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I don't hate Hamilton. I just know that if I started saving now I wouldn't be able to afford to go to the play before 2051 when it will still be sold out.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.
posted by aspersioncast at 1:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.

Nobody snuggles with Max Power, Marge. You strap yourself in and feel the Gs!
posted by tonycpsu at 1:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.

Yeah, same. Like, yay for your tolerance but I just could not get there myself. I'm way too opinionated and loud with my opinions.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I've basically decided that with one exception, "supported Trump" is now a dealbreaker for non-mandatory relationships for me. You don't like HRC? Fine. You hate HRC? Whatever. You voted for Johnson or Stein or didn't vote? Sure.

Trump? gtfo, we're done. Forever.

Gotta get ready to go see Hamilton tonight, I hope I like it.
posted by Skorgu at 2:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [50 favorites]

My boyfriend just doesn't like to talk about politics much but given how strongly I have sometimes argued with people I think agree with me, I think that's for the best.
posted by zutalors! at 2:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

soren_lorensen: Well, I've done a lot of training in non-violent communication, and a lot of canvassing (for Democrats!)
posted by Coventry at 2:01 PM on November 2, 2016

I think there's a sort of "why not both" aspect here.

It is true that the Democrats, the Republicans, and the entire economic establishment, has abused and harmed everyone, white, black, Asian, Hispanic, whatever, who isn't a gazillionaire. At best the Democrats are the more paternalistic, trying to be helpful but not really offering enough help, plutocrats while the Republicans are the kick you in the teeth and laugh at you plutocrats.

It's true that despite being vastly worse for poor people of all races, the Republicans do at least pay lip service to bullshit about white farmers with lots of guns being Real Americans, even though no one has been a farmer for decades and it's all just rural envy not actual real rural life for most of them.

******BUT*******

That's only half the story.

I think the Democrats can and should do a lot more for poor people of all races.

But the idea that the vicious racism of many white Americans is just a side effect of poverty is empirically wrong (a lot of racist white people aren't poor and not all poor white people are racist).

Frankly, some of the poor white people are just plain mean, unpleasant, racist, misogynist, assholes with a massive chip on their shoulder. You can't reach them with better jobs.

Then there's the nonsense about manufacturing.

Manufacturing is never coming back. It can't. Even if China vanished tomorrow automation has gotten so good that we'll never see low skill manufacturing jobs flourishing ever again in America. Anyone trying to promote manufacturing as a path forward is deluding themselves.

And that is going to get orders of magnitude worse as automation continues to destroy jobs. The entire driving sector will be vanishing soon, and taking with it lots of auto mechanic jobs (fewer wrecks). And that's just the beginning.

Helping poor people, of all races, is going to necessarily involve dealing with the fact that there's already a permanently unemployed class, a class that simply can not and will never find a job no matter how hard they look. And we're going to have to deal with that somehow.

You can't replace coal mining jobs with low skill manufacturing jobs. There are not now and will never, ever, be low skill manufacturing jobs again. That ship has sailed, the jobs are gone, they will not return.

Helping poor people, of any class, is going to have to involve something like a basic income, anyone claiming otherwise is either lying or misinformed.
posted by sotonohito at 2:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.

We talk a lot in this country about respecting one another's political differences, but I think that really comes down to what those specific differences are. There's a point where it's "just politics" and another point where your political views show who you really are. I'm done pretending all political differences should be treated with the same respect.

It's all cool if you're against this tax measure or that one or if you think a specific gun control measure doesn't do any good. I get that. But if you want to tell me queer people shouldn't be able to marry or only good Christians should hold public office, we're already into "fuck off forever" territory. And Trump & his supporters have been checking off the boxes in the FOF zone like they're working to unlock an achievement or some shit.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [58 favorites]

Election night #NextPost:

Summon all the courage you require. Then, count...
posted by saturday_morning at 2:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

RE: Trump's accuser. Anybody know of a way to watch the 6PM (EST) press conference online? Stuck at work tonight.
posted by Rykey at 2:10 PM on November 2, 2016

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.

Of all things, it was a low-key country music song that really brought home to me the intimacy of domestic violence and gendered power struggles:

"Too tired to fight so I just gave in.
Last night I slept in your arms again.
And I felt my heart next to your skin.
Beating like crazy."

I just don't think most men just get the reality for women that they're smaller and less strong, almost all the time. But when dudes hang around bigger guys they feel it instantly.
posted by msalt at 2:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.

Well, my family Trump voter was a volunteer EMT in a broke ass town for years, gives generously to charity, participates in socially conscious motorcycle-related activities, does most of the cooking and cleaning in his house, participated equitably in the parenting of his child, and has been generous with his time and resources when family members are in need. Doesn't sound much like a typical white male Trump voter, and yet here we are. I admit I have a very tough time squaring all of his community-minded and family-oriented actions with his strong opinions that seem completely contrary to what I know of his actual behavior.
posted by xyzzy at 2:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

In an attempt to console myself by stuffing oreos into my face, I just twisted my ankle reaching up to grab the package out of the high cabinet at work. So that's how my day is going.
posted by phunniemee at 2:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

xyzzy, has your family Trump voter said why he supports Trump?
posted by wondermouse at 2:19 PM on November 2, 2016

well phunniemee I bet you wish you had a Trump HSA right about now don't you
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

I think the Democrats can and should do a lot more for poor people of all races

Your agenda is admirable, but, in the absence of a lock on all three branches of the government for several years, it's nah gonna happen. And pointless to blame the Democrats for that.
posted by teirnon at 2:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

well phunniemee I bet you wish you had a Trump HSA right about now don't you

Seeing as my mental health plan was "eat oreos" the bar is already pretty low.
posted by phunniemee at 2:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with

I can safely say that I've never date/slept-with/married a republican. There's just no way.
posted by octothorpe at 2:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I think the Democrats can and should do a lot more for poor people of all races

yeah the can part of that is a bit unclear
posted by zutalors! at 2:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Hamilton reminds me of the late 80s when TV dads would rap. BUT, I thinks it's great that you kids want to name threads after Broadway show lyrics. I say yes, this is a time for both the hippity and the hoppity! A beat in every box!

Now who wants to get stoopid with some down burgers and fries, yo?!

*terrible robot dance*
posted by petebest at 2:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

well phunniemee I bet you wish you had a Trump HSA right about now don't you

The Onion has Trump's healthcare stance as "Darwinian". The Onion blew it there, that is not satire.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Oh, are we talking about actual snuggling? Not my thing either.
posted by Coventry at 2:25 PM on November 2, 2016

I am constantly amazed at people who are willing to snuggle with people they have fundamental political disagreements with.

Just one of the many reasons why I'm not even trying to date right now. Too many run-ins with left-leaning dudes who seem okay until they feel comfortable and then boom, hello secret racist or misogynist. Looking right at you, dude who met up with me for pinball and tacos and said a whole bunch of Islamophobic nonsense after a few beers.
posted by palomar at 2:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

which like on the one hand, the nice white folks of Bismarck are so enthusiastically in support of the pipeline (or at least, the pipeline as currently routed) that it would be fitting if it poisoned their water instead of the water on the reservation, but on the other hand it's best for literally everyone that the pipeline not get built at all.

so i get this but on the other hand the pipeline must logically be benefitting someone? But I have literally not heard one word in defense of the pipeline, from anyone. It is honestly bewildering
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I presume it's benefiting some corporation(s), who as we all know, are also people
posted by yasaman at 2:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Democrats in general would have a stronger base if they were willing and/or able to deliver solid benefits to their key constituencies. Democrats have a weak base because they have traded away the ability to benefit their key constituencies for individual economic advantage (rich Democrats benefiting from globalization, frex), momentary political advantage or the belief that they can win significant numbers of Republican supporters by knifing their core people while keeping their core people as voters.

On the whole, a political system where we ended up not governed by extremely rich people would probably be helpful. It doesn't matter if you make your bank while you become powerful a la the Clintons or are rich going in, because it makes your interests substantially diverge from regular people, and since the Democrats are the party - as much as we've got one - of Not Supporting Dramatic Inequalities, that's a bad thing.

For similar reasons, we need to be governed by more women, POC, queer people and marginalized people generally.

Also, anti-poverty programs would, given time, develop more voters. The really poor don't vote; stop them being really poor and they'll start voting.
posted by Frowner at 2:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

the pipeline must logically be benefitting someone?

It's benefitting the people who make money from selling oil & gasoline. And, I guess, the secondary markets associated with the development of those resources. And the landowners selling the right to cross their land with the pipeline.
posted by suelac at 2:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

stop them being really poor and they'll start voting

but what if we made voting way easier
posted by zutalors! at 2:31 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Just because we probably all are not tense enough as is: U.S. militia girds for trouble as presidential election nears

I recommend the excellent podcast with JJ MacNab in this article - she gives a good overview of the armed-to-the-teeth radical contingent.
posted by madamjujujive at 2:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

xyzzy, has your family Trump voter said why he supports Trump?

I would say Clinton Derangement Syndrome, but he has said about 100 times that the Clinton White House was nothing but good for him, scandals be damned. He insists that Hillary is just too corrupt and that "both choices are bad."

Ultimately, I think it comes down to this: he's fine with the gay people he knows and is related to, he likes his black friends from work, will sing the praises of his wife and successful daughter, but ultimately views those people as exceptions to the sterotypes that were pounded into his skull while he was growing up. It's the only thing that makes sense, imho. But he hasn't articulated anything like that at all; I'm just psychologizing. I truly, truly believe that if he'd gone to college he'd be voting differently. Both of my parents grew up in vilely racist and misogynistic households but emerged from college as Democrats.
posted by xyzzy at 2:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

but what if we made voting way easier

That would help to some degree, I imagine, but my sense is that it's not just a matter of logistics that plays into the question, but also one of social/civic engagement.
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 2:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I think it's a mix of things, but our clearly racist voter suppression in some areas cancels out any discussion of enthusiasm gaps, lack of engagement etc. People who have scheduled shifts, childcare, elder care, etc etc on Tuesday in a non early voting state are just SOL no matter how engaged they are.
posted by zutalors! at 2:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

well phunniemee I bet you wish you had a Trump HSA right about now don't you

One of the craziest parts about Trump's healthcare "plan" is this bit:

Allow individuals to use Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). Contributions into
HSAs should be tax-free and should be allowed to accumulate. These accounts would become part of the estate of the individual and could be passed on to heirs without fear of any death penalty.

That's the estate tax they're talking about. You know, the one that kicks in on estates over $5.34 million dollars (effectively, twice that for a married couple). The people who wrote Trump's healthcare plan are living in such a crazy world that they took the time to worry about people with $5-10 million dollar estates leaving their excess health care funds to their heirs tax-free (because the biggest problem people face is having too much of their money for health care and nothing to spend it on), but spent no time thinking about how, say, a retail worker is supposed to pay to get their broken foot treated.
posted by zachlipton at 2:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [42 favorites]

So:
Is anybody else looking at those Trump honesty numbers and just all *fuck it humanity is broken*
posted by angrycat at 2:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

Yes.
posted by kyrademon at 2:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

U.S. militia girds for trouble as presidential election nears

"Hello, boys and girls! Can you say 'self-fulfilling prophecy?' Good! Can you spell it? I didn't think so."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:45 PM on November 2, 2016

From Josh Marshall: It's frustrating to be called a kike. But pundits tell me it's important to empathize with economic anxiety/cultural isolation of Trumpers

It's ridiculous. I don't care how nice your friend/uncle/whoever is, they're supporting racist xenophobic bigotry and that makes them racist xenophobic bigots.
posted by Justinian at 2:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]

fuck it humanity is broken

Don't tell me you only now started thinking that?
posted by StrawberryPie at 2:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

The pipeline is replacing train and truck transport of the crude oil. Canceling the pipeline will constrain crude oil production from the Bakken oil fields, but will not stop it.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 2:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

> so i get this but on the other hand the pipeline must logically be benefitting someone? But I have literally not heard one word in defense of the pipeline, from anyone. It is honestly bewildering.

People from Bismarck, on the whole, very enthusiastically support it, because refinery jobs.

They may or may not be dupes of Dakota Access, LLC, and its parent company, Energy Transfer Partners. They do not respond well to mentions of climate change (because climate change is a liberal conspiracy) or to mentions of the possibility of water contamination on the Standing Rock reservation (because of the prevalence of vicious anti-Native sentiment among white North Dakotans).
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Is anybody else looking at those Trump honesty numbers and just all *fuck it humanity is broken*

I think it's become obvious that election-related polls are pretty much the worst thing.
posted by wondermouse at 2:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

BECAUSE BLACK AND BROWN PEOPLE NEVER FEEL ECONOMICALLY ANXIOUS OR CULTURALLY ISOLATED
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [64 favorites]

I don't care how nice your friend/uncle/whoever is, they're supporting racist xenophobic bigotry and that makes them racist xenophobic bigots.

I totally agree, but it doesn't make it any less painful to see your friend/uncle/whatever that you've known and loved expose their dark underbelly. I don't know how you pass the mashed potatoes to someone who actively voted to hurt you. It was much easier to assume the best about these people when the choices weren't so nakedly obvious. I might roll my eyes at the Bush or McCain voter who is voting against their own interests, but Trump voting shocks the hell out of me.
posted by xyzzy at 2:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

or to mentions of the possibility of water contamination on the Standing Rock reservation

Or the possibility of water contamination of the Missouri River clear to St. Louis. The water supply for 20 million people could be affected by a rupture of the DAPL, not just the folks living on the Standing Rock Reservation.
posted by suelac at 2:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Not Your District PAC is airing ads in Florida against Rep John Mica for his meddling in local DC affairs (fta: "The Floridian was part of an effort to overturn D.C.'s Reproductive Health Non-Discrimination Act, which makes it illegal for employers to discriminate based on reproductive health decisions, like using birth control or having an abortion."). His opponent, Stephanie Murphy, was the first candidate to be endorsed by the Pride Fund to End Gun Violence, a group that formed after the Orlando mass shooting earlier this year (their endorsements page is an excellent place to start if you're looking for Senate, House, and local candidates to send your dollars). Yesterday in Politico: Top GOP Congressman Laughs His Way To Possible Defeat.

This is definitely a race to watch.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 2:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

So remember all the recent reports about African American turnout in NC being down 5% or more in early voting vs 2012? This D pollster/strategist tweeted that numbers have jumped back up due to more voting centers being opened. Anyone heard this story from elsewhere?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 2:56 PM on November 2, 2016

Is there really nobody streaming this press conference?
posted by zachlipton at 2:56 PM on November 2, 2016

Rykey: The accuser's attorney says she'll be streaming it on the facetube, but apparently her website got knocked down as soon as the documents were put up, so we'll see if it works.
posted by mcdoublewide at 2:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

RE: Trump's accuser. Anybody know of a way to watch the 6PM (EST) press conference online? Stuck at work tonight.

According to Lisa Bloom on Twitter:

Live streaming of our press conference at 3pm PT re woman who sued Trump for child rape can be viewed here: http://www.facebook.com/LisaBloomAuthor

Then again ... in the time it took me to compose this message, the Tweet disappeared. Huh.
posted by Mothlight at 2:57 PM on November 2, 2016

#NextPost
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Guys, I'm getting notice from the HRC campaign that she's one point behind Trump in national polls. Is this real?
posted by moonlight on vermont at 3:00 PM on November 2, 2016

So remember all the recent reports about African American turnout in NC being down 5% or more in early voting vs 2012? This D pollster/strategist tweeted that numbers have jumped back up due to more voting centers being opened. Anyone heard this story from elsewhere?

Yep. I think it's from this report from the Clinton campaign.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Guys, I'm getting notice from the HRC campaign that she's one point behind Trump in national polls. Is this real?

It was yesterday. If it makes you feel any better, the same poll showed Obama down by three at the same point in 2012.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I totally agree, but it doesn't make it any less painful to see your friend/uncle/whatever that you've known and loved expose their dark underbelly. I don't know how you pass the mashed potatoes to someone who actively voted to hurt you. It was much easier to assume the best about these people when the choices weren't so nakedly obvious.

Can thoroughly second this, unfortunately. It was a lesson that many of us Brits learnt abruptly and unexpectedly with Brexit.

It was several months before I could so much as text my father.
posted by garius at 3:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

@irin (MSNBC/NBC reporter): "Lisa Bloom: Jane Doe has received numerous threats today... She has decided she is too afraid to show her face."
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 3:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Wow. Nothingburger, hold the burger.
posted by Roommate at 3:04 PM on November 2, 2016

That's the estate tax they're talking about. You know, the one that kicks in on estates over $5.34 million dollars (effectively, twice that for a married couple). The people who wrote Trump's healthcare plan are living in such a crazy world that they took the time to worry about people with $5-10 million dollar estates leaving their excess health care funds to their heirs tax-free (because the biggest problem people face is having too much of their money for health care and nothing to spend it on), but spent no time thinking about how, say, a retail worker is supposed to pay to get their broken foot treated.

I think it's a calculated move. By mentioning the estate tax so much they make it seem like a thing the average person should worry about, making people think abolishing is a good thing even though the estate tax will never come close to affecting them.
posted by ymgve at 3:04 PM on November 2, 2016

> although a lot of it is more general defense of pipelines rather than defense of the Dakota Access Pipeline, whereas NoDAPL is very much in opposition to that pipeline specifically (although I imagine there's a lot of overlap between people who oppose pipelines and oppose this pipeline). That skews search results, somewhat.

Well and also the goal for a lot of people really is to oppose every attempt to build anything related to shipping crude out from the Bakken oil fields, the idea being that:

if everything in the Bakken gets burnt, we're all doomed, and
If it is certain that every attempt to build anything to get crude out of the Bakken will get tied up in expensive, profit-margin-eating lawsuits, that will thereby very effectively discourage anyone from building anything.

posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Lisa Bloom: Jane Doe has received numerous threats today... She has decided she is too afraid to show her face

I just... want off... this ride now
posted by Rykey at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

New thread, new thread, new thread.
posted by zachlipton at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

but what if we made voting way easier

Oh that too, absolutely, and historically there are lots of times where popular organizing enables/motivates/activates very poor voters, as well. I'm more thinking of people being really beat down by circumstance with little feeling that government will change their lives, because in their experience government generally doesn't. (Except to make them worse via policing, traffic fines, etc.)

We don't get a super large turnout most years in my precinct, and my feeling, based on living here for many years now, is that a lot of people just feel that government doesn't give a shit about them. It's not that there are no community activists here, or that people are willfully ignorant - it's that people have been injured and/or neglected instead of protected and lifted up by the state. If any party were to start creating material/cultural/social lived benefits here on a significant scale, I think a lot of people would be activated by that.
posted by Frowner at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Is anybody else looking at those Trump honesty numbers and just all *fuck it humanity is broken*
The American People have just reached Peak Gullibility. It would be a public service to acquire Trump's mailing lists and send them dozens of offers for fake investments with Trump's name on them. And hurry, because that's exactly what Trump will do after the election, win or lose. Only parts of the pitch would vary. (And the public service part? Send all the proceeds to Liberal Causes the Trumpists hate.)
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

My point is that it's any progressive or radical party's responsibility to deliver benefits to marginalized people and respond to them, not just demand that they vote. And I feel that the Democratic party does that very, very unevenly and is often on the side of the oppressors. If you want to be the Inequality Is Deprecated party, you have to listen to and lift up the people who are getting kicked around in this society.
posted by Frowner at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

BTW, I'm taking suggestions for #NextPost title.

"We push away the unimaginable."
posted by FelliniBlank at 3:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

I'm Canadian so I can't participate in this election, but I would like to thank the kind folks here for a most illuminating time while reading through the bulk of these election threads.
By way of thanks, here is a sketch I did of Trump.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I don't know that switching to Chrome would help

Different OS, but Chrome on Android 6.x with 150+tabs (yeah, I know) on older Note 4 doesn't break a sweat. Opera neither. Firefox has major issues.
posted by meehawl at 4:01 PM on November 2, 2016

I had my first weird canvass experience today. I wasn't yelled at, but I was held forth at rather loudly by the first person whose door I knocked on. It started when I, per the script, introduced myself as a volunteer with the Colorado Democratic party and he told me that he used to be a Democrat but he wasn't any more, not that he was a Republican and he'd never vote for Trump, but he also wasn't voting for Hillary becase that is what the oligarchs want. At that point I tried to thank him and wish him a nice day and get on to the next door, but he was still talking. How many books he's read, being a grad student in 1968 and a part of the counter cultural revolution, $1.3T in student loan debt making money for Wall Street, growing up in Germany, US attempts to blame things on solo actors rather than systemic and complex causes, American actions that had the effect of destablilizing countries in Central America and the Middle East. I'm sure I'm leaving out several of the other things he mentioned. He told me he's going to write in Bernie Sanders and at that point my internal dialogue was "Not even Bernie wants you to do that. I would like to leave now because there are lots of other people to go and talk to on my list and this is not the best use of my time and I bet there's nothing I could say that would help, even if I were the sort of person who argued with people about politics through their screen doors." And then he told me not to take it personally, and that he hadn't meant to go on like that. I started to say that I understood, and then said instead that I heard him and expressed my hope that he enjoy the afternoon.

I suggested to 2 people who were having anxiety over the dropping percentages at 538 that they look up Sam Wang and PEC instead, which I wouldn't have known about without these threads. Most of the other people on my list weren't home or had already voted or we had nice and pleasant conversations about their support for Hillary, how awful Comey's timing was, and their plans for bringing their ballots to the nearest ballot box (yesterday was the recommended deadline for mailing ballots back). My votes-per-canvasser total was up to 189 this morning, hoping to hit 200.
posted by danielleh at 4:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

But working in a restaurant kitchen is a surefire method for losing weight, it's true.

My husband is now a kitchen manager and has been working in the kitchen for 8 months or so. He did lose some weight, mostly from being more active, but he developed a buffalo wings addiction that kinda cancelled out anything else.

We regularly eat at that restaurant (cause free or very cheap) and there are only a couple of things he tells me not to order. It may help that it's a grill-heavy place and there's not too many way to seriously fuck up grilled meat. Of course we have to do the "who's working x station tonight" to figure out what to order.

A couple nights ago he brought me home a salad and said "it probably sucks, it was made by the crack addict." So, yanno, restaurant life.
posted by threeturtles at 4:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

British town will burn 36-foot Donald Trump statue...

This kind of tomfoolery seems exactly like the kind of thing Wordshore would be involved with.

Catching up. I've only just seen this comment after commenting in the new election thread and will say no more.
posted by Wordshore at 4:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

well, i have to do this - it's time to do the age old democratic party theme song ...

"hollandaise are here again ..."
posted by pyramid termite at 4:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

William Gibson (@GreatDismal):

James Carville: Near-future nightmare extrapolative genius. VOTE!!!
posted by salix at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Recently Actives: Next Post
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

So. Since I've gone all in on the campaign, I've made a canvassing buddy and we go out all day every day, only stopping for lunch. We talk about politics a little bit, a LOT about architecture, and whatever else comes to mind. We are a rock. We are an island.

I just checked into this thread, and I had about 1400 unread comments. I haven't checked Politico, 538, WaPo, NPR, the Grauniad or anything else for DAYS because when I get home I have time to eat some dinner, read a little bit of a novel and then go to bed.

Seriously, y'all. Lemme give you the secret Sleepy Psychonaut cure for all election-related agita, anxiety, dyspepsia or panic. Find your local campaign office and tell them that you're there to canvass until you drop. Then do it. Neighborhood after neighborhood til it gets dark and you're falling asleep on your feet.

Your worry isn't a magical psychic force that can influence the election, but your elbow grease, your smile and your willingness to connect with other voters is.

I promise - I'm shyer than you are, and I did it, and it was fine. I feel much better now, and even if it's only a week of respite, I'll take it.
posted by sleepy psychonaut at 6:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

lauranesson: "Yeah, I like "First Spouse," too, leaving the inevitable freak-out for later when we get an unmarried/poly/whatever president."

This is late in the game pedantry, but we've already had an unmarried president, James Buchanan. His niece (whom he had adopted) handled the First Lady gig.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

The AP Stylebook has weighed in:

first gentleman
Not an official title, always lowercase. Should the individual hold or have held an official title of high office, that title takes precedence: former President Bill Clinton.

posted by Lexica at 7:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

2016 is giving me the creeps.

[edit: yes, I've been drinking]
posted by bonobothegreat at 7:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

WRT the James Carville vid upthread - the Dems seem to realize that turnout is an urgent issue. Hope to christ they keep on-message with that next year. And the year after, as local and state elections sometimes happen in REALLY off years, and it most certainly has to happen in 2018.
posted by Slap*Happy at 8:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

> Maybe HRC can just be President Rodham since she only added the Clinton since she got shit for it as first lady of Arkansas.

If she's going to change her name after kicking Galvatrump's ass and gaining the Matrix of Leadership, I'd recommend instead Hillary Rodhimus Prime. ("Now light our darkest hour.")
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

And thus this thread evaporatesssss
posted by Namlit at 4:31 AM on November 3, 2016

Oh dearest MeFites, here again we stand at the precipice. A great, endless maw spanning the horizon. Seemingly, our only reward...

With the talk of Hollandaise and expeditions grammatical, we sail with confidence... into the newest of frontiers.

Ah, who am I kidding. It's "Yet Another American ElectionThread."

May the great whoisit, from the whereupon up high or othersomesuch, have mercy on us all.
posted by PROD_TPSL at 5:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Sam Wong says it's not really 100% for Hillary. They count in integers, and it's higher than 99.5%

So there's that.

Big question: will enough southern Floridians turn out to boot Marco?
posted by Combat Wombat at 6:37 AM on November 3, 2016

Nearly all the major sites I look at say the race is tightening and it's going to be close. Metafilter is saying it's all good, don't panic. My trust in Metafilter is high. Don't let me down guys.
posted by night_train at 3:19 AM on November 4, 2016

What good has panicking ever done ever? Do what you're gonna do, but don't panic. If you want to put some effort into actually helping the campaign then that's excellent, but even if the extent of your involvement is chatting about things here on MetaFilter, you should try to accept that the outcome of the election is largely out of your hands and therefore not worth obsessing about.

I know that sounds really trite, but it's true. I've been working on internalizing this message for a few days, and it's helping me a lot in terms of my mental health.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:12 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Extnay Ostpay
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:37 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

mmoncur:

The many ways you can stream the election. I'm right there with you.
posted by bendy at 1:36 AM on November 8, 2016

Because Vox hates us. And hates America.
posted by dis_integration at 6:33 AM on November 8, 2016 [1 favorite]

What did Justinian ever do to Vox?!
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:33 AM on November 8, 2016 [1 favorite]

It is clear that the GOP choose power over country and democracy. This naked desire for power is why I will never vote Republican.
In a related thought, I have been telling people for years that the prolife movement was a figleaf for power over women. Maybe they will believe me now.

Edit: Wrong thread. I don't know how I ended up here.
posted by Gadgetenvy at 9:08 AM on November 10, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't think any of us do, Gadgetenvy.
posted by cortex at 10:39 AM on November 10, 2016 [25 favorites]

So my prediction a week out is significantly more negative than most.

Calm down, Trump losing Nevada but winning Wisconsin would represent the greatest polling failure in history. It's not likely.

Mmmmm.

I think the polls are all WAY off. Anyone wanna give me odds on Clinton 400+?
400 pretty much requires winning Texas. Or all of AZ, IA, MO, GA, FL and OH, plus Utah. Id take that bet.

In fairness, your first sentence there was correct.
posted by Wordshore at 3:37 PM on November 17, 2016 [3 favorites]

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