"A Lamb Has Harnessed a Wolf"
March 20, 2022 3:06 PM Subscribe
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been going on for nearly a month. According to most analysts, it has not gone according to plan, and Russia has begun preparations for a long war. The most horrific battle has been in Mariupol, a port city devastated by shelling and fighting. Meanwhile, live in the capital, Kyiv, is almost calm. In occupied cities, Ukrainians hold daily protests, and across the Western border, Ukrainian refugees have been welcomed in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova. The name of this thread is from a painting by Maria Primachenko.
Thanks, Kattullus! I was just putting a thread together.
Instead, I'll just say...
I'm obviously not a mod, but folks, please honor the mods' guidelines for these threads:
posted by escape from the potato planet at 3:27 PM on March 20, 2022 [67 favorites]
Instead, I'll just say...
I'm obviously not a mod, but folks, please honor the mods' guidelines for these threads:
- Keep discussion centered on "news and analysis of the situation in Ukraine, Russia and the countries dealing with the humanitarian catastrophe". (If you would like to discuss peripheral topics – e.g., the war's implications for the US – you can post a separate thread dedicated to that topic.)
- Don't speculate about nuclear escalation.
- Remember that some MeFites live in places that are directly affected by this war. Accordingly, armchair wargaming may be inappropriate. Linking to qualified military analysis is fine, but uninformed speculation is not.
- Exercise good judgment about the links you post – i.e., don't link to random fascists' Twitter accounts.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 3:27 PM on March 20, 2022 [67 favorites]
Slightly tangential: the thread title reminds me of Rebecca West's incredible book about her travels in Yugoslavia between WWI and WWII: Grey Falcon, Black Lamb. The dedication reads "To my friends in Yugoslavia, who are now all dead or enslaved."
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:28 PM on March 20, 2022 [19 favorites]
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:28 PM on March 20, 2022 [19 favorites]
This Twitter thread has a remarkable claim in it: that Russian organized crime regularly abuses and extorts the army, functioning as an essential part of the apparatus of state by preventing that army from posing a threat to the hegemony of the state. That Russia doesn't actually have a functioning military in the conventional sense, merely a functioning state-security apparatus, that their ability to, and structure for, exerting force is almost entirely aimed inwards to crush dissent.
posted by mhoye at 3:46 PM on March 20, 2022 [46 favorites]
posted by mhoye at 3:46 PM on March 20, 2022 [46 favorites]
Please be aware: there is no bottom.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:47 PM on March 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:47 PM on March 20, 2022 [8 favorites]
Thanks for the post, Kattallus.
Apparently there are now more than 200,000 Ukrainian refugees in Germany. I live in the most western part of Germany, and I suspect it's more concentrated in the east, but I've been hearing stories of people hosting refugees here in Baden-Württemberg. Annalena Baerbock (one of the leaders of the current coalition government in Germany) is proclaiming that every country in Europe needs to prepare to take on more refugees.
I don't know if we're the right people to host refugees, but I don't want to look back on this time and think we could have helped but didn't.
I guess this is going to be another very long year.
posted by Alex404 at 3:56 PM on March 20, 2022 [20 favorites]
Apparently there are now more than 200,000 Ukrainian refugees in Germany. I live in the most western part of Germany, and I suspect it's more concentrated in the east, but I've been hearing stories of people hosting refugees here in Baden-Württemberg. Annalena Baerbock (one of the leaders of the current coalition government in Germany) is proclaiming that every country in Europe needs to prepare to take on more refugees.
I don't know if we're the right people to host refugees, but I don't want to look back on this time and think we could have helped but didn't.
I guess this is going to be another very long year.
posted by Alex404 at 3:56 PM on March 20, 2022 [20 favorites]
A Ukrainian punk band has released an anti-war spin on The Clash's hit song "London Calling,"
posted by vrakatar at 4:01 PM on March 20, 2022 [30 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 4:01 PM on March 20, 2022 [30 favorites]
Russia says it has set a 5am Moscow time (2am GMT / 10pm ET) deadline for Mariupol to surrender. Reporting from Reuters according to the Guardian. I’m on my phone and in bed and I cannot link to it but this appears to be genuine. Also: totally fucked. Like so many other things in this war.
posted by Bella Donna at 4:06 PM on March 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 4:06 PM on March 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
Confirmation from Financial Times reporter on Twitter.
posted by Bella Donna at 4:13 PM on March 20, 2022
posted by Bella Donna at 4:13 PM on March 20, 2022
Bella Donna — confirmed in multiple sources. Here’s one link: https://mobile.twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1505639872769449985
robbyrobs - can you link the source for your quote?
posted by Silvery Fish at 4:15 PM on March 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
robbyrobs - can you link the source for your quote?
posted by Silvery Fish at 4:15 PM on March 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
An update on the Maria Prymachenko paintings: according to the great-granddaughter of the artist Anastasiia Prymachenko, around 10 of the 25 works of art created by the artist that had been stored in the museum were saved by a local man who ran into the burning building. The saved artworks were taken into hiding by locals and are now scattered across the town of Ivankiv.
posted by Lanark at 4:19 PM on March 20, 2022 [51 favorites]
posted by Lanark at 4:19 PM on March 20, 2022 [51 favorites]
Mod note: deleted unsourced propaganda
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 4:30 PM on March 20, 2022 [54 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 4:30 PM on March 20, 2022 [54 favorites]
Diary from Kiev is a journal on Reddit from a self-described "average guy in Kiev" named Eugene started at the beginning of the invasion. It's a mix of his day-to-day experiences, sharing things he's heard and read, and his thoughts on Ukraine and Russia.
posted by justkevin at 4:32 PM on March 20, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by justkevin at 4:32 PM on March 20, 2022 [11 favorites]
Kyiv Independent: Ukraine rejects Russia's demand to surrender Mariupol.
posted by vers at 4:32 PM on March 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by vers at 4:32 PM on March 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
U.S. has ‘credible information’ Russians are creating lists of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps, ambassador to U.N. says
posted by Silvery Fish at 4:41 PM on March 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
A Ukrainian punk band has released an anti-war spin on The Clash's hit song "London Calling,"
Billy Bragg posted this on Facebook:
"Yesterday evening I posted a clip of the Ukranian band Beton performing their rewrite of 'London Calling'. According to reports, the song 'Kyiv Calling' was approved by the Clash, with funds raised going to the Free Ukraine Resistance Movement.
"After a few hours of discussing the lyrics of the song and whether Joe Strummer would approve of the rewrite, a number of people drew my attention to a series of photographs on the band's Facebook page showing members of the band wearing t-shirts based on the Ramones circular logo.
The word 'Ramones' at the top of the logo had been replaced with the word 'Banderas' and although all of the names within the circle were not visible, the one that was clearly read 'Stepan'. The photos dated from a year ago.
"This is deeply troubling. Stepan Bandera was a far-right Ukranian politician who collaborated with the Nazis during the occupation of Ukraine and whose followers were complicit in the Holocaust. That he did these things in the name of Ukranian independence from the Soviet Union has led some present day far right nationalists to adopt his image in their decade long struggle with Russia.
"The knock on effect of this has been to allow Putin to smear all those who want a democratic Ukraine free from Russian influence as neo-nazis. The lionisation of Bandera explains his attempt to legitimize the invasion as a campaign of 'denazification', despite the fact that when, during the 2019 Ukrainian elections, all of the major far right Ukrainian parties formed a unified party for the national election, they gained just 2.15% of the vote and failed to secure a single seat in the national parliament. Compare that with the 2009 EU parliament election, where the BNP won 6% of the vote.
"I left a message on the band's Facebook page asking them to explain why they were wearing t-shirts that appeared to support Bandera, but after 24 hours, I've had no response, so I've deleted my post.
"We can argue about the meaning of 'London Calling' and what Joe Strummer would or wouldn't have said about the lyrical changes, but we can be damn sure that he would not have allowed his song to be utilised by a band that expressed their support for fascists."
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:49 PM on March 20, 2022 [102 favorites]
Billy Bragg posted this on Facebook:
"Yesterday evening I posted a clip of the Ukranian band Beton performing their rewrite of 'London Calling'. According to reports, the song 'Kyiv Calling' was approved by the Clash, with funds raised going to the Free Ukraine Resistance Movement.
"After a few hours of discussing the lyrics of the song and whether Joe Strummer would approve of the rewrite, a number of people drew my attention to a series of photographs on the band's Facebook page showing members of the band wearing t-shirts based on the Ramones circular logo.
The word 'Ramones' at the top of the logo had been replaced with the word 'Banderas' and although all of the names within the circle were not visible, the one that was clearly read 'Stepan'. The photos dated from a year ago.
"This is deeply troubling. Stepan Bandera was a far-right Ukranian politician who collaborated with the Nazis during the occupation of Ukraine and whose followers were complicit in the Holocaust. That he did these things in the name of Ukranian independence from the Soviet Union has led some present day far right nationalists to adopt his image in their decade long struggle with Russia.
"The knock on effect of this has been to allow Putin to smear all those who want a democratic Ukraine free from Russian influence as neo-nazis. The lionisation of Bandera explains his attempt to legitimize the invasion as a campaign of 'denazification', despite the fact that when, during the 2019 Ukrainian elections, all of the major far right Ukrainian parties formed a unified party for the national election, they gained just 2.15% of the vote and failed to secure a single seat in the national parliament. Compare that with the 2009 EU parliament election, where the BNP won 6% of the vote.
"I left a message on the band's Facebook page asking them to explain why they were wearing t-shirts that appeared to support Bandera, but after 24 hours, I've had no response, so I've deleted my post.
"We can argue about the meaning of 'London Calling' and what Joe Strummer would or wouldn't have said about the lyrical changes, but we can be damn sure that he would not have allowed his song to be utilised by a band that expressed their support for fascists."
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:49 PM on March 20, 2022 [102 favorites]
I haven't come across much reference to how COVID-19 may be impacting troops on both sides - both in terms of physical health but also morale. Its a highly contagious and debilitating disease, after all, but soldiers spend a lot of time in close quarters. I can see that vaccination rates across Russia and Ukraine are middling, although armed forces would likely have a far higher rate than their general population.
posted by jjderooy at 5:12 PM on March 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by jjderooy at 5:12 PM on March 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
not news, but opinion from an interesting perspective: interview with former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev, who served under Boris Yeltsin (economist.com)
posted by are-coral-made at 5:16 PM on March 20, 2022
posted by are-coral-made at 5:16 PM on March 20, 2022
Some Israeli politicians are upset at Zelenskyy comparing current events to the holocaust according to Times of Israel.
posted by interogative mood at 5:42 PM on March 20, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 5:42 PM on March 20, 2022
This video moved to me to tears.
twitter link
posted by gwydapllew at 6:06 PM on March 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
twitter link
posted by gwydapllew at 6:06 PM on March 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
I met someone last night who was preparing to go volunteer in Ukraine. His reasoning was, the invasion of Ukraine is wrong, he is combat trained, he is willing to die with a weapon in hand, and better that he be the one who dies than some untrained 20 year old.
posted by subdee at 6:38 PM on March 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by subdee at 6:38 PM on March 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
No gun, no helmet, no action: The frustrations of some novice Americans who signed up to fight in Ukraine (Washington Post mirror)
No equipment, no training, no language skills. I hope this guy is an outlier cause he's really excited to get blown up at "the front lines".
posted by meowzilla at 6:39 PM on March 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
No equipment, no training, no language skills. I hope this guy is an outlier cause he's really excited to get blown up at "the front lines".
posted by meowzilla at 6:39 PM on March 20, 2022 [5 favorites]
I found his conviction moving. I can't speak to his level of training or ability to help. There was another Washington Post article at the end of the last thread about volunteers that was positive.
posted by subdee at 6:43 PM on March 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by subdee at 6:43 PM on March 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
JPost: Recent survey shows 93% of Ukrainians believe in victory over Russia
The poll was conducted amidst Ukrainians aged 18 and older in all regions, except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbass. The sample was representative of age, sex and type of settlement and included 1,000 participants.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:45 PM on March 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
Mod note: I just deleted a WHOLE BUNCH. Please use this thread for news and information coming out of Ukraine or about Ukraine. Please do not post unsourced propaganda, and if you do feel the need to armchair general (I certainly do!), it doesn't belong in this thread. If you see other people posting unsourced propaganda, dallying down side-threads that are at-best tangentially related, or arm-chair generalling, please flag it rather than responding to it. Use the contact form if you concerns won't fit in a flag or flag note.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:12 PM on March 20, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:12 PM on March 20, 2022 [31 favorites]
Mod note: One more point, someone can go make a metatalk for "do we need a separate thread to talk about X?" and you guys can hash out possible side-threads in metatalk, instead of in this thread. A thread about nuclear deterrence theory would be a totally fine thread to have and there have been some good articles in the past few weeks. If people want to hash out other possible-useful side-threads, let's make a metatalk to discuss things that are and aren't thread-worthy and not derail this thread any further.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:14 PM on March 20, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:14 PM on March 20, 2022 [31 favorites]
Reuters reports ammonia leak at a chemical plant in Sumy Oblast, some speculate this might actually be Russian chemical weapons use.
posted by interogative mood at 9:59 PM on March 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:59 PM on March 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
it has not gone according to plan
from post. (excellent, thanks)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20
'War shortens the distance from person to person, from birth to death.” New Work by Ukrainian Poet Halyna Kruk.
posted by clavdivs at 10:01 PM on March 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
from post. (excellent, thanks)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20
'War shortens the distance from person to person, from birth to death.” New Work by Ukrainian Poet Halyna Kruk.
posted by clavdivs at 10:01 PM on March 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
some speculate this might actually be Russian chemical weapons use
Ammonia would be a pretty lousy chemical weapon, unless you're fighting fish. Far more likely that it's just a leak at a chemical plant, fertilizer factory, or farm.
posted by ryanrs at 10:42 PM on March 20, 2022 [12 favorites]
Ammonia would be a pretty lousy chemical weapon, unless you're fighting fish. Far more likely that it's just a leak at a chemical plant, fertilizer factory, or farm.
posted by ryanrs at 10:42 PM on March 20, 2022 [12 favorites]
For some global perspectives I've made a list of national public broadcasters and their coverage of Ukraine in English. CNN and MSNBC have actually been pretty good, this is the kind of story which fits their platform well, and it's where CNN really got it's foothold. They really do see everything through an American lens though, and do occasionally sin by disregarding Ukrainian agency in all this.
Also CNN last month posted a youtube video titled, I'm not joking, CNN to Russian FM: Do you plan to decapitate Ukrainian leadership?. I mean, fuck that. Drop the clickbait bullshit and act like a fucking grown up if you want my respect. Putrid.
Here they are:
NHK (Japan)
DW (Germany)
France24
BBC (UK)
Al-Jazeera (Qatar)
Australia has two public broadcasters. SBS serves our sizeable migrant population with foreign language programming. They are rehosting Ukrainian News from the National Television Company of Ukraine in Kiev, no subtitles.
SBS (Australia)
ABC (Australia)
There is of course RT and CGTN, but they don't exactly enjoy editorial independence. Search for them yourself if you want to know what the Russian and Chinese governments want foreigners to hear.
posted by adept256 at 10:53 PM on March 20, 2022 [16 favorites]
Also CNN last month posted a youtube video titled, I'm not joking, CNN to Russian FM: Do you plan to decapitate Ukrainian leadership?. I mean, fuck that. Drop the clickbait bullshit and act like a fucking grown up if you want my respect. Putrid.
Here they are:
NHK (Japan)
DW (Germany)
France24
BBC (UK)
Al-Jazeera (Qatar)
Australia has two public broadcasters. SBS serves our sizeable migrant population with foreign language programming. They are rehosting Ukrainian News from the National Television Company of Ukraine in Kiev, no subtitles.
SBS (Australia)
ABC (Australia)
There is of course RT and CGTN, but they don't exactly enjoy editorial independence. Search for them yourself if you want to know what the Russian and Chinese governments want foreigners to hear.
posted by adept256 at 10:53 PM on March 20, 2022 [16 favorites]
Reuters reports ammonia leak at a chemical plant in Sumy Oblast, some speculate this might actually be Russian chemical weapons use.
Where is that “some speculate” coming from? Because the linked story says nothing about it.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:49 PM on March 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
Where is that “some speculate” coming from? Because the linked story says nothing about it.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:49 PM on March 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
Content warning: self-harm
...
Ukrainian mathematician Konstantin Olmezov, working in the field of additive combinatorics, has killed himself after being prevented by the FSB from leaving Russia.
posted by corb at 12:10 AM on March 21, 2022 [19 favorites]
...
Ukrainian mathematician Konstantin Olmezov, working in the field of additive combinatorics, has killed himself after being prevented by the FSB from leaving Russia.
posted by corb at 12:10 AM on March 21, 2022 [19 favorites]
The “some speculate” I believe comes from a March 9th report that Ukraine was using a false flag campaign about Ukraine using chemical weapons, specifically ammonia, on its own people. Ammonia doesn’t make sense as a chemical weapon still but it came from NBC and other reputable sources (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-warns-russia-use-chemical-weapons-false-flag-operation-ukraine-rcna19391)
posted by geoff. at 12:21 AM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by geoff. at 12:21 AM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Whoops on my phone that should read Russia launching a false flag attack against Ukraine.
posted by geoff. at 12:22 AM on March 21, 2022
posted by geoff. at 12:22 AM on March 21, 2022
Russia's Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Ukrainians in the small city of Zolochiv brought in over 80 tons of ammonia
Russian Defense Ministry is reputable source...
'Ukrainian women are volunteering to fight — and history shows they always have.'
posted by clavdivs at 12:34 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russian Defense Ministry is reputable source...
'Ukrainian women are volunteering to fight — and history shows they always have.'
posted by clavdivs at 12:34 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Warning, graphic content.
Article from Sydney Morning Herald reporters in Ukraine: Bringing up the bodies in the killing fields of Kyiv
In the ruins of a village on the edge of the capital, the remains of the dead are ferried across a creek as they begin their final journey home. Anthony Galloway and Kate Geraghty report from Kyiv.
posted by jadepearl at 12:57 AM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
Article from Sydney Morning Herald reporters in Ukraine: Bringing up the bodies in the killing fields of Kyiv
In the ruins of a village on the edge of the capital, the remains of the dead are ferried across a creek as they begin their final journey home. Anthony Galloway and Kate Geraghty report from Kyiv.
posted by jadepearl at 12:57 AM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
Slovakia have received the first batch of Patriot batteries this Sunday paving the way for the transfer of Slovakian S-300s to Ukraine. This is good news for Ukraine's air defences!
posted by kmt at 2:49 AM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by kmt at 2:49 AM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
"What happens around Mariupol in the next few days should reveal alot about the state of the Russian Army--in a ghastly way. The 'demand' that the city be surrendered was really a plea. Saying to the Ukrainians, 'we really dont want to send our army into the town.'" - thread by Strategic studies professor Phillips P. OBrien
posted by rongorongo at 3:05 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 3:05 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
OBrien is entirely correct. I think the Plan B for Russia at this point is the Mariupol line and the land bridge to Crimea. They need Mariupol so they can rock up to negotiations and say "we're leaving but we're staying in Kherson and the southern half of Zaporizhzhia; take it or leave it."
This puts Ukraine in an impossible position at those negotiations because its options are either keep fighting a brutal war or consent to give up even more of its territory. Salami tactics ftw despite Russia being a bunch of imperialist, war criminal fucks on the verge of collapse. However, to execute this plan they need to actually take Mariupol and like OBrien said, that's not something the Russians want to do, little alone are able to do right now. Hence the ultimatum and hence Ukraine calling their bluff.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:34 AM on March 21, 2022 [15 favorites]
This puts Ukraine in an impossible position at those negotiations because its options are either keep fighting a brutal war or consent to give up even more of its territory. Salami tactics ftw despite Russia being a bunch of imperialist, war criminal fucks on the verge of collapse. However, to execute this plan they need to actually take Mariupol and like OBrien said, that's not something the Russians want to do, little alone are able to do right now. Hence the ultimatum and hence Ukraine calling their bluff.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:34 AM on March 21, 2022 [15 favorites]
Boris Romantschenko, survivor of four concentration camps including Bergen Belsen, was killed by a bullet that passed through his house in Kharkiv. He was 96 years old.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:38 AM on March 21, 2022 [23 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:38 AM on March 21, 2022 [23 favorites]
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1505576153804800000
Which Russians are getting killed in Ukraine. Surprisingly, a lot of Putin's support comes from older women. I wonder what happens when it registers than their grandson's are dying.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/19/politics/ukraine-refugees-us-what-matters/index.html
The US hasn't been accepting Ukrainian refugees.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:44 AM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
Which Russians are getting killed in Ukraine. Surprisingly, a lot of Putin's support comes from older women. I wonder what happens when it registers than their grandson's are dying.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/19/politics/ukraine-refugees-us-what-matters/index.html
The US hasn't been accepting Ukrainian refugees.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:44 AM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
AP News has a long report, with photos, from their team in Mariupol who have now escaped the city.
They believe they were the last international journalists on the ground there, and that the Russians were hunting them down. They were sneaked out by Ukranian forces and evacuated with the last civilian convoy.
They'd covered the attack on the maternity hospital, the mass graves, the bombing of the theatre shelter.
There's no foreign journalists left to report what's happening there now.
posted by automatronic at 7:47 AM on March 21, 2022 [53 favorites]
They believe they were the last international journalists on the ground there, and that the Russians were hunting them down. They were sneaked out by Ukranian forces and evacuated with the last civilian convoy.
They'd covered the attack on the maternity hospital, the mass graves, the bombing of the theatre shelter.
There's no foreign journalists left to report what's happening there now.
posted by automatronic at 7:47 AM on March 21, 2022 [53 favorites]
The Jerusalem Post: Zelensky strikes the wrong note to bring Knesset to his side - analysis:
Israelis know the history of the Holocaust very well. The Ukrainian Auxiliary Police rounded up Jews to be massacred in Babyn Yar, Lviv and Zhytomyr. About 80,000 Ukrainians volunteered for the SS, compared with 2,600 Ukrainians documented as having saved Jews. And before that, some of the worst pogroms in Jewish history were perpetrated in what is now Ukraine.posted by kmt at 7:52 AM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
None of that should matter in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and is brutally bombarding its civilian centers. And, in fact, Israeli public opinion is strongly in favor of Ukraine in this war despite its bloody, violent history with Jews.
[...]
Zelensky will likely continue to enjoy the support of Israelis, despite the speech falling flat. But that same misfire will likely allow the government to continue its policies toward Ukraine without much public pressure to change them.
From The Guardian 9 March 2022, on Ukraine's top climate scientist: “I started to think about the parallels between climate change and this war and it’s clear that the roots of both these threats to humanity are found in fossil fuels,” said Krakovska.
“Burning oil, gas and coal is causing warming and impacts we need to adapt to. And Russia sells these resources and uses the money to buy weapons. Other countries are dependent upon these fossil fuels, they don’t make themselves free of them. This is a fossil fuel war. It’s clear we cannot continue to live this way, it will destroy our civilization.”
posted by Bella Donna at 7:56 AM on March 21, 2022 [43 favorites]
“Burning oil, gas and coal is causing warming and impacts we need to adapt to. And Russia sells these resources and uses the money to buy weapons. Other countries are dependent upon these fossil fuels, they don’t make themselves free of them. This is a fossil fuel war. It’s clear we cannot continue to live this way, it will destroy our civilization.”
posted by Bella Donna at 7:56 AM on March 21, 2022 [43 favorites]
As long as it's ok to post links to supportive music in this thread, there's also The Kiffness remix of an Ukrainian folk song.
I'm a big fan of The Kiffness, otherwise I'd probably not post.
posted by flamewise at 7:57 AM on March 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
I'm a big fan of The Kiffness, otherwise I'd probably not post.
posted by flamewise at 7:57 AM on March 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
Thanks for the link, flamewise. That's a great song.
posted by Bella Donna at 8:01 AM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bella Donna at 8:01 AM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
appreciate the links to Maria Primachenko's work, upthread.. here is A Dragon Descends on Ukraine
posted by elkevelvet at 8:58 AM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 8:58 AM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
A short news report, filmed yesterday, about life in Kharkiv. It ends with a haunting shot of the subway station’s blast doors closing.
posted by Kattullus at 9:06 AM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 9:06 AM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
This puts Ukraine in an impossible position at those negotiations because its options are either keep fighting a brutal war or consent to give up even more of its territory.
It certainly puts Ukraine in an undesirable position (not that there is a desirable outcome anymore), but it's clear Ukrainians are willing to continue fighting to defend and retake their country for at least the medium term. Far from being an impossible position, it seems clear Zelenskyy would find it easy to say "no deal."
posted by rikschell at 9:17 AM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
It certainly puts Ukraine in an undesirable position (not that there is a desirable outcome anymore), but it's clear Ukrainians are willing to continue fighting to defend and retake their country for at least the medium term. Far from being an impossible position, it seems clear Zelenskyy would find it easy to say "no deal."
posted by rikschell at 9:17 AM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
From Newsweek: Russia's Elite Want Putin Out, Successor in Mind: Ukraine Intel Chief
posted by escape from the potato planet at 9:31 AM on March 21, 2022
posted by escape from the potato planet at 9:31 AM on March 21, 2022
Short, interesting thread by someone who describes himself as "Ex intelligence director & adviser in Georgia, Iraq, Ukraine, Moldova. Estonian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee."
@EerikNKross: A friend asked for an explanation why "It's just Putin" is wrong and dangerous. I felt it needs a longer response. Here it is:
posted by rhizome at 9:36 AM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
@EerikNKross: A friend asked for an explanation why "It's just Putin" is wrong and dangerous. I felt it needs a longer response. Here it is:
posted by rhizome at 9:36 AM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
How a Sleazy American Dating Coach Became a Pro-Putin Shill in Ukraine
posted by clawsoon at 9:38 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 9:38 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
“ Burning oil, gas and coal is causing warming and impacts we need to adapt to. And Russia sells these resources and uses the money to buy weapons. Other countries are dependent upon these fossil fuels, they don’t make themselves free of them. This is a fossil fuel war. It’s clear we cannot continue to live this way, it will destroy our civilization.”
She’s not wrong, but before fossil fuels it was salt and after fossil fuels it’s going to be rare earth minerals or something else. I think it’s more comprehensively a confluence of rare assets, capitalism, national mythos, and cultural/existential fear.
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:04 AM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
She’s not wrong, but before fossil fuels it was salt and after fossil fuels it’s going to be rare earth minerals or something else. I think it’s more comprehensively a confluence of rare assets, capitalism, national mythos, and cultural/existential fear.
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:04 AM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
Ukrainian nationalists in World War 2 had the immediate prior experience of the Holodomor. This made them very vulnerable to Nazi propaganda. Ultimately the Nazi’s were the ones in charge, not Ukrainians.
posted by interogative mood at 10:08 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:08 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
How a Sleazy American Dating Coach Became a Pro-Putin Shill in Ukraine
Least surprising career arc ever.
posted by acb at 10:09 AM on March 21, 2022 [21 favorites]
Least surprising career arc ever.
posted by acb at 10:09 AM on March 21, 2022 [21 favorites]
This one is equally unsurprising, A Boogaloo Boi Tried to Join the Foreign Legion In Ukraine — It Didn’t End Well: He duped his local newspaper into giving him a hero’s sendoff. His story is now being used as Russian propaganda.
posted by peeedro at 10:14 AM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by peeedro at 10:14 AM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
A friend asked for an explanation why "It's just Putin" is wrong and dangerous. I felt it needs a longer response. Here it is:
Useful details. I have been thinking about a number of late-night conversations I’ve had over the years with friends, with mr saying, “Russia has never been post-Tsarist.” I assume this way of ruling goes back even further; I don’t have the knowledge to say for sure. Russia has been through a number of revolts in the last centuries, but the difference between a revolt and a revolution is immense: in a revolt, the person or party who is in charge changes, but the methods for gaining and retaining power does not. In a revolution, a new party gains power and then changes the rules for how power can be attained and retained.
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:16 AM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
Useful details. I have been thinking about a number of late-night conversations I’ve had over the years with friends, with mr saying, “Russia has never been post-Tsarist.” I assume this way of ruling goes back even further; I don’t have the knowledge to say for sure. Russia has been through a number of revolts in the last centuries, but the difference between a revolt and a revolution is immense: in a revolt, the person or party who is in charge changes, but the methods for gaining and retaining power does not. In a revolution, a new party gains power and then changes the rules for how power can be attained and retained.
posted by Silvery Fish at 10:16 AM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
There is a new public database called Russian Asset Tracker that has drawn on a host of documentation, including the Panama papers, and has a variety of partners. It looks amazeballs but I have not had a chance to spend much time there. I very much hope it is legit and that it kicks criminal ass.
Introducing a project to track down and catalogue the vast wealth held outside Russia by oligarchs and key figures close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:08 AM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Introducing a project to track down and catalogue the vast wealth held outside Russia by oligarchs and key figures close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:08 AM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
"Russia's Elite Want Putin Out, Successor in Mind: Ukraine Intel Chief"
Great if it's true, and some excellent bad jacketing if it's not.
posted by kaibutsu at 11:21 AM on March 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
Great if it's true, and some excellent bad jacketing if it's not.
posted by kaibutsu at 11:21 AM on March 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
Not sure that this is propaganda. It comes from Navalny's organization. Has a Bellingcat feel to the intricate data contextualization.
They feel confident that they have identified Putin's yacht, harbored in Italy.
posted by zerobyproxy at 11:31 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
They feel confident that they have identified Putin's yacht, harbored in Italy.
posted by zerobyproxy at 11:31 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
I am skeptical of virtually anything reported in Newsweek and the Putin article was based on the statement by some Ukraine department so I suspect it is propaganda.
Here’s a link to an interesting article about trading dead Russian soldiers for living Ukraine soldiers. Kyiv Independent.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:37 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Here’s a link to an interesting article about trading dead Russian soldiers for living Ukraine soldiers. Kyiv Independent.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:37 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
I assume this way of ruling goes back even further; I don’t have the knowledge to say for sure.
Absolutely. The Imperial government was at least as brutal and corrupt as the current one. Nicholas II killed many orders of magnitudes more of his under-trained and poorly-equipped soldiers than Putin, and he’s not anywhere near the worst Tsar.
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:43 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Absolutely. The Imperial government was at least as brutal and corrupt as the current one. Nicholas II killed many orders of magnitudes more of his under-trained and poorly-equipped soldiers than Putin, and he’s not anywhere near the worst Tsar.
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:43 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yeah, I wasn't presenting the Newsweek article as proven fact. It says right in the headline that the allegation comes from Ukrainian intelligence. Surely there are some among the Russian elite who've contemplated removing Putin from power – but one must assume that this is, at least in part, an effort to sow distrust between Putin and his inner circle.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 11:50 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by escape from the potato planet at 11:50 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
One can go back at least to Ivan the Terrible's Oprichnina. Coincidentally, Russia's first monument to Mr. Terrible was unveiled in 2016.
posted by clawsoon at 11:54 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 11:54 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Per Kaitlan Collins: "Today President Biden is urging private sector companies to harden their cyber defenses "immediately" based on "evolving intelligence that the Russian Government is exploring options for potential cyberattacks."
posted by tclark at 11:56 AM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by tclark at 11:56 AM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
Several hundred mines have broken free and are floating around the Black Sea.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:58 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:58 AM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch on Twitter
WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Sending Soviet Air Defense Systems It Secretly Acquired to Ukraine
Probably paywalled, but the gist is:
NEW: Russia has launched more than 300 sorties into Ukraine the last 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official.IOW, they're down (by losses or breakdowns) over 30% of prewar strength.
🇷🇺 sorties are not "venturing very far and very long" into 🇺🇦 airspace, the official said. Russia still has more than 60 percent of fixed wing and rotary wing capability.
WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Sending Soviet Air Defense Systems It Secretly Acquired to Ukraine
Probably paywalled, but the gist is:
The systems, which one U.S. official said include the SA-8, are decades old and were obtained by the U.S. so it could examine the technology used by the Russian military and which Moscow has exported around the world.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:58 AM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
The weapons are familiar to Ukraine’s military, which inherited this type of equipment following the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis, NYTimes, so perhaps paywalled.
For those living on the brink of food insecurity, the latest surge in prices could push many over the edge. After remaining mostly flat for five years, hunger rose by about 18 percent during the pandemic to between 720 million and 811 million people. Earlier this month, the United Nations said that the war’s impact on the global food market alone could cause an additional 7.6 million to 13.1 million people to go hungry.posted by mumimor at 12:05 PM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
The World Food Program’s costs have already increased by $71 million a month, enough to cut daily rations for 3.8 million people. “We’ll be taking food from the hungry to give to the starving,” Mr. Beasley said.
Rising prices and hunger also present a potential new dimension to the world’s view of the war. Could they further fuel anger at Russia and calls for intervention? Or would frustration be targeted at the Western sanctions that are helping to trap food and fertilizer?
While virtually every country will face higher prices, some places could struggle to find enough food at all.
Armenia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Eritrea have imported virtually all of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine and must find new sources. But they are competing against much larger buyers, including Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh and Iran, which have obtained more than 60 percent of their wheat from the two warring countries.
I doubt that Boogaloo Boi joined the "official" Foreign Legion, but from what I've read, people in those signed a contract and are paid a salary. So on paper, they are actual members of Ukraine's military and not mercenaries, which on paper grants them Geneva Convention protections.
But if you want to just leave, that's going AWOL. You can't just quit when it gets tough and you changed your mind, and the borders are locked down. And you may also know things that Ukraine doesn't want leaked to the general public or their enemies.
Ukraine takes a dim view of collaborators, which is expected when you are fighting for your survival:
posted by meowzilla at 12:11 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
But if you want to just leave, that's going AWOL. You can't just quit when it gets tough and you changed your mind, and the borders are locked down. And you may also know things that Ukraine doesn't want leaked to the general public or their enemies.
Ukraine takes a dim view of collaborators, which is expected when you are fighting for your survival:
Somebody in Kherson killed Denis Slobodchikov, an aide assisting the local collaborationist government set up by occupying Russian troops. Shot him (many times, by the look of it) through the windshield of his own car.
posted by meowzilla at 12:11 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Several hundred mines have broken free and are floating around the Black Sea.
Just bad stuff happens during war? Or are the Ukrainians trying to make a sea approach difficult? Seems suspicious that hundreds of mines would just drift off at the same time. And it's hard to see how it benefits the Russian side.
The Italians should just impound the boat, and ask the owner to make him/herself known if he/she wants his boat. If it's not Putin's it's probably linked to some shady tax evasion somewhere. Although it's probably not gonna account to much, I'm pretty sure Putin has written off going on his boat for a while.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 12:15 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Just bad stuff happens during war? Or are the Ukrainians trying to make a sea approach difficult? Seems suspicious that hundreds of mines would just drift off at the same time. And it's hard to see how it benefits the Russian side.
The Italians should just impound the boat, and ask the owner to make him/herself known if he/she wants his boat. If it's not Putin's it's probably linked to some shady tax evasion somewhere. Although it's probably not gonna account to much, I'm pretty sure Putin has written off going on his boat for a while.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 12:15 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
I doubt that Boogaloo Boi joined the "official" Foreign Legion
From the article, he didn’t pass the vetting process of the Georgian Legion, which is where people who can’t pass the vetting process of the Foreign Legion go. I suspect that far from trying to stop him from leaving, a bunch of people cheered when he did. It’s highly likely he made up the story to try to save face, rather than admit that they didn’t want him. A lot of these types of guys have highly inflated ideas of their abilities.
posted by corb at 12:16 PM on March 21, 2022 [19 favorites]
From the article, he didn’t pass the vetting process of the Georgian Legion, which is where people who can’t pass the vetting process of the Foreign Legion go. I suspect that far from trying to stop him from leaving, a bunch of people cheered when he did. It’s highly likely he made up the story to try to save face, rather than admit that they didn’t want him. A lot of these types of guys have highly inflated ideas of their abilities.
posted by corb at 12:16 PM on March 21, 2022 [19 favorites]
Komsomolskaya Pravda accidentally leaked the Russian MoD's KIA/WIA stats for Russian troops.
9,861 KIA
16,153 WIA
The nearly 10,000 deaths officially noted in three weeks notwithstanding, that ratio of KIA to WIA is eyebrow raising. If I had to guess I'd say that using abused conscripts with poor esprit de corps doesn't work all that well combined with poor logistics.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:31 PM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
9,861 KIA
16,153 WIA
The nearly 10,000 deaths officially noted in three weeks notwithstanding, that ratio of KIA to WIA is eyebrow raising. If I had to guess I'd say that using abused conscripts with poor esprit de corps doesn't work all that well combined with poor logistics.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:31 PM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
Re: the NYT article on the global food shortage, Dr Sarah Taber has been on a tear from last week iirc at the western coverage on this supposed wheat (in particular) shortage, especially as India has begun posting their harvest reports for the season, which is a bumper crop year (tl;dr global agriculture has been on standby for many reasons not the least of which Russian army movements from late last year as well as the staggered harvest cycles). Anyway that NYT article triggered a fresh twitter thread, hold on:
Dr Sarah Taber: What a funny way to say
"India already has 2x the amount of wheat lost to Ukraine invasion sitting around in national stockpiles, is starting harvest on another massive wheat & oilseed bumper crop as we speak, & has spent months building out infrastructure to move grain abroad."
I don't wanna start shit, but a suggestion NYT.
Maybe if you wanna report on east Europe/MENA food trade, put someone on the job who's prepared for that?
Don't send in your guy whose beat is tech & dive bars in South America???
Talk about setting your guy up to fail! Jesus!
[...] India's wheat harvest start this week. Texas's starts next wk. Then the whole Great Plains is a conveyor belt of wheat that moves north & ends in the Canadian prairie later in summer.
Wheat futures started climbing *4 months ago.* The US already started planting more wheat then!
Let me repeat:
Farmers saw this coming MONTHS ago. Wheat futures started going up back in November when Russia started lining military up at Ukraine's borders.
The entire world's farmers have been preparing for this for MONTHS.
It's only news to commentators outside the ag world!
The rest of us were way ahead of you!
This is our JOB. There's a whole industry built around forecasting potential global food shortages months before they happy, so we can respond in time.
You're a prestigious publication with God knows what kind of resources.
The world is FULL of crop scientists, economists, etc tapped into crop forecasting.
And you couldn't find a single one of them to write about the thing they know about?
[...]
It kind of feels like we wanted a panic narrative so we carefully curated & cropped the data until we had one.
Super fucking irresponsible. This drives panic-buying in rich countries, sucking up supplies & escalating prices higher & higher.
And THAT is what kills poor people.
posted by cendawanita at 12:38 PM on March 21, 2022 [162 favorites]
Dr Sarah Taber: What a funny way to say
"India already has 2x the amount of wheat lost to Ukraine invasion sitting around in national stockpiles, is starting harvest on another massive wheat & oilseed bumper crop as we speak, & has spent months building out infrastructure to move grain abroad."
I don't wanna start shit, but a suggestion NYT.
Maybe if you wanna report on east Europe/MENA food trade, put someone on the job who's prepared for that?
Don't send in your guy whose beat is tech & dive bars in South America???
Talk about setting your guy up to fail! Jesus!
[...] India's wheat harvest start this week. Texas's starts next wk. Then the whole Great Plains is a conveyor belt of wheat that moves north & ends in the Canadian prairie later in summer.
Wheat futures started climbing *4 months ago.* The US already started planting more wheat then!
Let me repeat:
Farmers saw this coming MONTHS ago. Wheat futures started going up back in November when Russia started lining military up at Ukraine's borders.
The entire world's farmers have been preparing for this for MONTHS.
It's only news to commentators outside the ag world!
The rest of us were way ahead of you!
This is our JOB. There's a whole industry built around forecasting potential global food shortages months before they happy, so we can respond in time.
You're a prestigious publication with God knows what kind of resources.
The world is FULL of crop scientists, economists, etc tapped into crop forecasting.
And you couldn't find a single one of them to write about the thing they know about?
[...]
It kind of feels like we wanted a panic narrative so we carefully curated & cropped the data until we had one.
Super fucking irresponsible. This drives panic-buying in rich countries, sucking up supplies & escalating prices higher & higher.
And THAT is what kills poor people.
posted by cendawanita at 12:38 PM on March 21, 2022 [162 favorites]
Is 300 sorties a day an increase or decrease in the tempo of their operations — that would probably be more telling than how deep they are penetrating. Also unknown is the kind of mission those sorties are conducting — is it close air support or just firing stand-off weapons — it seems like probably the later.
For comparison the US flew 100,000 sorties in the first 30 days of the 1991 Gulf War. That is 10x tempo and we had total air superiority after the first day.
posted by interogative mood at 12:50 PM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
For comparison the US flew 100,000 sorties in the first 30 days of the 1991 Gulf War. That is 10x tempo and we had total air superiority after the first day.
posted by interogative mood at 12:50 PM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
mumimor – I hit the NYT paywall, here’s the archive.org link:
Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis – A critical share of the world’s food and fertilizer is stuck in Russia and Ukraine, sending global prices soaring and foreshadowing a rise in world hunger., Jack Nicas, New York Times, March 20, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 12:50 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis – A critical share of the world’s food and fertilizer is stuck in Russia and Ukraine, sending global prices soaring and foreshadowing a rise in world hunger., Jack Nicas, New York Times, March 20, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 12:50 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
> Seems suspicious that hundreds of mines would just drift off at the same time. And it's hard to see how it benefits the Russian side.
maybe 420 mines are in fact, adrift, but consider the source: Russian FSB
consider who benefits from sowing fear about the safety of shipping in the western part of the Black Sea.
take absolutely nothing Russian authorities say at face value.
posted by glonous keming at 12:55 PM on March 21, 2022 [22 favorites]
maybe 420 mines are in fact, adrift, but consider the source: Russian FSB
consider who benefits from sowing fear about the safety of shipping in the western part of the Black Sea.
take absolutely nothing Russian authorities say at face value.
posted by glonous keming at 12:55 PM on March 21, 2022 [22 favorites]
Russian Court calls Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, an extremist organization and bans it. (NYT)
I can't read FSB without thinking it is some variant of FB.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:02 PM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
I can't read FSB without thinking it is some variant of FB.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:02 PM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
finally something i can agree about with a Russian authority
posted by glonous keming at 1:04 PM on March 21, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by glonous keming at 1:04 PM on March 21, 2022 [26 favorites]
Dr Sarah Taber: What a funny way to say
Thanks for posting this, it makes me a little less worried. Though only a little because I don't always understand what Taber is getting at, and I am a farmer (though an incredibly unsuccessful farmer).
One of the things the NYTimes article is right about is that even small rises in grain prices have historically triggered unrest in large parts of the world. The so-called Arab Spring started because because people couldn't afford bread, not because they were suddenly inspired by US colonialism in Iraq.
And right now, we already have inflation for other reasons. Just a small rise in the price of wheat, as seen from a Western perspective, could mean a lot in North Africa, or any of the countries mentioned in the article.
posted by mumimor at 1:17 PM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
Thanks for posting this, it makes me a little less worried. Though only a little because I don't always understand what Taber is getting at, and I am a farmer (though an incredibly unsuccessful farmer).
One of the things the NYTimes article is right about is that even small rises in grain prices have historically triggered unrest in large parts of the world. The so-called Arab Spring started because because people couldn't afford bread, not because they were suddenly inspired by US colonialism in Iraq.
And right now, we already have inflation for other reasons. Just a small rise in the price of wheat, as seen from a Western perspective, could mean a lot in North Africa, or any of the countries mentioned in the article.
posted by mumimor at 1:17 PM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
Russian Court calls Meta, owner of Facebook and Instagram, an extremist organization and bans it.
You're not wrong, Walter....
posted by tclark at 1:22 PM on March 21, 2022 [27 favorites]
You're not wrong, Walter....
posted by tclark at 1:22 PM on March 21, 2022 [27 favorites]
Refugee update from Poland: new education regulation in the works which should both make it easier to set up in-person prep schooling and (thank heavens) allow funding to get kids laptops to do remote school in Ukrainian. The Ukrainian Education Ministry has been running MOOC-style schooling for a couple weeks now. In mid-February there were 280 thousand kids total in Warsaw's schools and kindergartens, squeezing another 90 thousand (current estimate) in just isn't going to happen on short notice.
Issuing Polish ID numbers to refugees is going steadily - of all things, the most recent numbers come from the Health Ministry, which has issued over 120 thousand automatic Covid vaccination referrals that refugees can use to register for their jabs.
In contrast, refugees with cash still can't get it changed in many exchange bureaus. The national bank of Poland just announced an exchange program at the official rate, but it's limited to about $300 per person.
And of course Polish politics continues divisive on the refugee front as well. National TV has been full of right-wing publicists speculating on how unfair it is for refugees to get all this aid and services "ahead" of Polish citizens. They've dug up the old Smolensk lie (that Kaczynski L. was killed in a Russian assassination, not an idiotic plane crash because he told the pilot to land in a fog), they've been saying it's all Germany's fault, and Kaczynski J. has a new idea to push through sweeping changes to the constitution to "enable confiscation of Russian assets", as if the constitution ever stopped him in the last 6 years from doing what he wants.
Brighter things: remember the little girl who sang Let It Go in a bomb shelter? Yesterday she sang the Ukrainian hym , opening a charity concert that brought in 3 milllion PLN for the Polish Humanitarian Action and was transmitted to 50 countries.
(Also, the reason I don't usually link sources is because they're Polish and often paywalled. Just in case: schools, right-wing idiots, money.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:30 PM on March 21, 2022 [40 favorites]
Issuing Polish ID numbers to refugees is going steadily - of all things, the most recent numbers come from the Health Ministry, which has issued over 120 thousand automatic Covid vaccination referrals that refugees can use to register for their jabs.
In contrast, refugees with cash still can't get it changed in many exchange bureaus. The national bank of Poland just announced an exchange program at the official rate, but it's limited to about $300 per person.
And of course Polish politics continues divisive on the refugee front as well. National TV has been full of right-wing publicists speculating on how unfair it is for refugees to get all this aid and services "ahead" of Polish citizens. They've dug up the old Smolensk lie (that Kaczynski L. was killed in a Russian assassination, not an idiotic plane crash because he told the pilot to land in a fog), they've been saying it's all Germany's fault, and Kaczynski J. has a new idea to push through sweeping changes to the constitution to "enable confiscation of Russian assets", as if the constitution ever stopped him in the last 6 years from doing what he wants.
Brighter things: remember the little girl who sang Let It Go in a bomb shelter? Yesterday she sang the Ukrainian hym , opening a charity concert that brought in 3 milllion PLN for the Polish Humanitarian Action and was transmitted to 50 countries.
(Also, the reason I don't usually link sources is because they're Polish and often paywalled. Just in case: schools, right-wing idiots, money.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:30 PM on March 21, 2022 [40 favorites]
A less uplifting update from Hungary: Wow: Hungary would veto EU sanctions against Russian gas transfers, a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and even an EU peacekeeping mission.
Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó - a receipient of the Order of Friendship, one of the Kremlin's highest honours - called these a "red line".
I liked Szabolcs' metaphor which perfectly encapsulate the idiocy and absolute lack of tactical sense of Orbán and his kleptocratic entourage:
Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó - a receipient of the Order of Friendship, one of the Kremlin's highest honours - called these a "red line".
I liked Szabolcs' metaphor which perfectly encapsulate the idiocy and absolute lack of tactical sense of Orbán and his kleptocratic entourage:
Let's not be naive: a no-fly zone over Ukraine is a red line for many other EU member states as well. However, Orbán is actually taking pride in loudly opposing all kinds of help to Ukraine.posted by kmt at 1:38 PM on March 21, 2022 [30 favorites]
There are many who piss in the swimming pool but Hungary does it from the diving board.
Is 300 sorties a day an increase or decrease in the tempo of their operations
Sounds like a (slight?) increase. A DoD official noted last week
That seems to be a problem:
Wheat prices soar on Ukraine fears, but U.S. growers can't cash in
Sounds like a (slight?) increase. A DoD official noted last week
As a few days ago we said they were roughly flying around 200 sorties a day. It goes up and it goes down but I don't have an exact estimate today.Wheat futures started climbing *4 months ago.* The US already started planting more wheat then!
That seems to be a problem:
Wheat prices soar on Ukraine fears, but U.S. growers can't cash in
CHICAGO, March 21 (Reuters) - After Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global wheat futures soaring, U.S. farmer Vance Ehmke was eager to sell his grain.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:38 PM on March 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
Local prices shot up roughly 30% to nearly $12 a bushel, about the highest Ehmke could recall in 45 years of farming near the western Kansas town of Healy.
Instead of reaping a windfall, Ehmke found a commodities market turned upside down. He and his wife Louise told Reuters they couldn't sell a nickel of their upcoming summer wheat harvest for future delivery. Futures prices for corn and wheat had rocketed so abruptly that many along the complex chain of grain handling - local farm cooperatives, grain elevators, flour millers and exporters - stopped buying for fear they couldn't resell at a profit.
mumimor: Though only a little because I don't always understand what Taber is getting at, and I am a farmer (though an incredibly unsuccessful farmer). One of the things the NYTimes article is right about is that even small rises in grain prices have historically triggered unrest in large parts of the world.
I guess what Taber is saying is that there's plenty of grain to go around, and the only thing that's going to cause price rises leading to unrest and possible starvation is unnecessary panic buying? Kind of like how there was enough toilet paper to wipe everybody's butts at the start of Covid, and the only thing that caused shortages was unnecessary panic buying?
posted by clawsoon at 1:46 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
I guess what Taber is saying is that there's plenty of grain to go around, and the only thing that's going to cause price rises leading to unrest and possible starvation is unnecessary panic buying? Kind of like how there was enough toilet paper to wipe everybody's butts at the start of Covid, and the only thing that caused shortages was unnecessary panic buying?
posted by clawsoon at 1:46 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
If that Russian casualty count is accurate - and if it is wrong, it is likely to be an underestimate - then in just three weeks Russia has sustained as many KIA as the US did in the worst five months of Vietnam (February to June of 1968).
posted by Major Clanger at 1:53 PM on March 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 1:53 PM on March 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
I'll reprise and rephrase a comment I made on an earlier thread. Even with the disruption of wheat production and exports, the world does not have a food shortage. What the world has, and is heavily exacerbated, is a shortage of equity around distribution of food.
Put another way: a recent piece I saw claimed that 15% of the world's calories come from wheat, and that nearly a third of that wheat is grown in the Ukraine and Russia. That would be up to 5% of the total global calories - except that it is disrupted and won't be totally missing. Still, even half of that would be 2.5% of global calories. Now the question is whether there is that much or more wasted food in the world, even setting aside ramped up production in other places. The clear answer is yes.
Modern hunger is due to political decisions driven from financial and other ideology. There is a huge opportunity here for nations to do the right humanitarian thing and build an immense amount of 'soft' power by stepping up to ensure the most vulnerable get fed despite these huge supply disruptions.
posted by meinvt at 1:54 PM on March 21, 2022 [53 favorites]
Put another way: a recent piece I saw claimed that 15% of the world's calories come from wheat, and that nearly a third of that wheat is grown in the Ukraine and Russia. That would be up to 5% of the total global calories - except that it is disrupted and won't be totally missing. Still, even half of that would be 2.5% of global calories. Now the question is whether there is that much or more wasted food in the world, even setting aside ramped up production in other places. The clear answer is yes.
Modern hunger is due to political decisions driven from financial and other ideology. There is a huge opportunity here for nations to do the right humanitarian thing and build an immense amount of 'soft' power by stepping up to ensure the most vulnerable get fed despite these huge supply disruptions.
posted by meinvt at 1:54 PM on March 21, 2022 [53 favorites]
FYI, EU or NATO peace keeping mission the way Kaczynski (leader of ruling party in Poland) proposed it would be way too close to a partition of Ukraine à la 1919, so as far as Orban is concerned even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:59 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:59 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
(what some might consider a minor point of fact is not really minor: it's simply "Ukraine," NOT "the Ukraine.")
posted by cooker girl at 2:06 PM on March 21, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by cooker girl at 2:06 PM on March 21, 2022 [20 favorites]
clawsoon: Kind of like how there was enough toilet paper to wipe everybody's butts at the start of Covid, and the only thing that caused shortages was unnecessary panic buying?
Yes and no. It is kind of like the toilet paper shortage in the early weeks of lockdown, but that shortage wasn't because of panic buying, but because the supply chain for toilet paper wasn't set up to deal with the abrupt shift when no one pooped at work or in restaurants, stores and such, where there's one type of toilet roll, to everyone pooping at home all the time, where people use a different type of toilet roll.
In this case, though, it's not that the world has to switch to a different kind of grain, but it's that it has to get it from different places than before. People have been shipping wheat from Ukraine to Turkey for centuries, so all the processes are in place and all problems have been sorted out. Getting wheat from somewhere else therefore requires more effort , and there will be kinks to smooth out along the way.
posted by Kattullus at 2:10 PM on March 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
Yes and no. It is kind of like the toilet paper shortage in the early weeks of lockdown, but that shortage wasn't because of panic buying, but because the supply chain for toilet paper wasn't set up to deal with the abrupt shift when no one pooped at work or in restaurants, stores and such, where there's one type of toilet roll, to everyone pooping at home all the time, where people use a different type of toilet roll.
In this case, though, it's not that the world has to switch to a different kind of grain, but it's that it has to get it from different places than before. People have been shipping wheat from Ukraine to Turkey for centuries, so all the processes are in place and all problems have been sorted out. Getting wheat from somewhere else therefore requires more effort , and there will be kinks to smooth out along the way.
posted by Kattullus at 2:10 PM on March 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
it's simply "Ukraine," NOT "the Ukraine."
Conversely, I hope we can resolve to refer to Ivan the Terrible as Mr The Terrible, rather than Mr Terrible.
posted by kaibutsu at 2:18 PM on March 21, 2022 [22 favorites]
Conversely, I hope we can resolve to refer to Ivan the Terrible as Mr The Terrible, rather than Mr Terrible.
posted by kaibutsu at 2:18 PM on March 21, 2022 [22 favorites]
Komsomolskaya Pravda accidentally leaked the Russian MoD's KIA/WIA stats for Russian troops.
They're saying they were hacked. Though it is curious that the figure is between the UA and US estimates.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:25 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
They're saying they were hacked. Though it is curious that the figure is between the UA and US estimates.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:25 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
They're saying they were hacked. Though it is curious that the figure is between the UA and US estimates.
It's certainly prudent to be skeptical, but the US has had pretty good intel on Russia, especially revolving around this invasion, to the tune of basically the exact day.
posted by Twain Device at 2:35 PM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's certainly prudent to be skeptical, but the US has had pretty good intel on Russia, especially revolving around this invasion, to the tune of basically the exact day.
posted by Twain Device at 2:35 PM on March 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Telegraph put this article up yesterday: Vladimir Putin accused of mass abductions of Ukrainian citizens: Chilling echoes of Second World War as Kremlin troops forcibly deport thousands of people from Mariupol to cities deep inside Russia
If you don't want to subscribe, you can read it on the Wayback Machine. Via their twitter thread.
posted by homunculus at 2:39 PM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
If you don't want to subscribe, you can read it on the Wayback Machine. Via their twitter thread.
posted by homunculus at 2:39 PM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
I assume they're on it but the deportations seems like a job for the UN and Red Cross.
posted by sammyo at 2:41 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by sammyo at 2:41 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
which has issued over 120 thousand automatic Covid vaccination referrals that refugees can use to register for their jabs.
Excellent news. I noticed last week that Ukraine only has 34% of population fully vaccinated. Providing vaccinations quickly will likely prevent additional troubles for Poland and the refugees.
If that Russian casualty count is accurate - and if it is wrong, it is likely to be an underestimate - then in just three weeks Russia has sustained as many KIA as the US did in the worst five months of Vietnam
Honest question: warfare mortality numbers have never been a concern for Russia’s rulers, tho, has it?
(and I’ll ask that any responses respectfully refrain from war-speak such as ‘meat grinder’ or ‘fertilizer’ or any similar dehumanizing language. I am horrified by both actions done and beliefs held by some of the Russian troops, but we are still talking about people here.)
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:50 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Excellent news. I noticed last week that Ukraine only has 34% of population fully vaccinated. Providing vaccinations quickly will likely prevent additional troubles for Poland and the refugees.
If that Russian casualty count is accurate - and if it is wrong, it is likely to be an underestimate - then in just three weeks Russia has sustained as many KIA as the US did in the worst five months of Vietnam
Honest question: warfare mortality numbers have never been a concern for Russia’s rulers, tho, has it?
(and I’ll ask that any responses respectfully refrain from war-speak such as ‘meat grinder’ or ‘fertilizer’ or any similar dehumanizing language. I am horrified by both actions done and beliefs held by some of the Russian troops, but we are still talking about people here.)
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:50 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
A short history of (pre-Soviet) Russian imperialism.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:57 PM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:57 PM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Thank you, CheeseDigestsAll.
posted by Silvery Fish at 3:01 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Silvery Fish at 3:01 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
NL Times: Dutch royal family to house Ukrainian refugees in castle
For the time being, refugees will not stay in Villa Eikenhorst, the Wassenaar home of King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima. Instead, space will be made available in Het Oude Loo, on the grounds of the palace in Apeldoorn. "It is expected that six to eight families, or twenty to thirty people, will be able to use it," the press office said in a statement. The rooms in the 15th-century castle can be used in any way the royal family wishes.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:25 PM on March 21, 2022 [19 favorites]
(what some might consider a minor point of fact is not really minor: it's simply "Ukraine," NOT "the Ukraine.")
Not a minor point and I see I slipped into mindless habit in my comment above, so I offer apologies.
posted by meinvt at 3:41 PM on March 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
Not a minor point and I see I slipped into mindless habit in my comment above, so I offer apologies.
posted by meinvt at 3:41 PM on March 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
A peace keeping force and defacto partition of Ukraine may be the outcome we get. Europe will not be able to politically handle these kind of refugee numbers for very long. Our own toxic politics can be put on hold for a free moments; but as this crisis becomes part of the background, unfortunately they will re-emerge.
posted by interogative mood at 3:56 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 3:56 PM on March 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
I haven't seen it mentioned, except very obliquely, but most of Europe has a huge labor shortage, some of it because of populist policies during the last two decades. We already knew twenty years ago that we needed immigration, but in many countries, fear mongering and pandering to the far right was a route to power. I hate to say this, but I suspect some cynical European politicians see the emotional impact of the extreme barbarism of the Russian invasion as a great opening for re-introducing immigration into the EU.
posted by mumimor at 4:04 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 4:04 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukraine president says any compromises with Russia will require a referendum
LVIV, Ukraine March 21 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday said any compromises agreed with Russia to end the war would need to be voted on by Ukrainians in a referendum.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:16 PM on March 21, 2022 [15 favorites]
"The people will have to speak up and respond to this or that form of compromise. And what they (the compromises) will be is the subject of our talks and understanding between Ukraine and Russia," he said in an interview published by Ukrainian public broadcasting company Suspilne.
I was reading some opposite analysis, that Russia with its geriatric population skew and 1.75ish birthrate can't really afford to lose thousands of kids and thousands of working age professionals... The recent reports of Russia kidnapping Ukrainian children and forced deportation of Ukrainian citizens into Russia is harrowing.
posted by kaibutsu at 4:30 PM on March 21, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by kaibutsu at 4:30 PM on March 21, 2022 [13 favorites]
Youtuber @nfkrz with an update yesterday from Tbilisi on leaving Russia
The YT channel 1420 seems to be a good source for street interviews from Moscow. Each person is asked the subject question, and the single follow up is always 'why' ("отчего"). The informants seem to be mostly college-aged (per comments during a live react stream by a Russian speaker) but there are also some older citizens, and a few middle aged people.
It's interesting to read between the lines as people's reactions to questions shift with the date.
Are Russians scared to discuss the government? [3/7]
What do young Russians think about Putin? [3/8]
What do Russians think now? Two weeks from the start [3/11]
Are Russians ready to be cut off from the Internet [3/12]
What do Russians think about the "fake news" law? [3/13]
Do Russians blame the US for special operation? [3/15]
What do Russians think about NATO? [3/17]
What do Russians think now? Three weeks from the start. [3/18]
Do Russians expect WWIII? [3/19]
What do Russians think about "Z" ? [3/20]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:47 PM on March 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
The YT channel 1420 seems to be a good source for street interviews from Moscow. Each person is asked the subject question, and the single follow up is always 'why' ("отчего"). The informants seem to be mostly college-aged (per comments during a live react stream by a Russian speaker) but there are also some older citizens, and a few middle aged people.
It's interesting to read between the lines as people's reactions to questions shift with the date.
Are Russians scared to discuss the government? [3/7]
What do young Russians think about Putin? [3/8]
What do Russians think now? Two weeks from the start [3/11]
Are Russians ready to be cut off from the Internet [3/12]
What do Russians think about the "fake news" law? [3/13]
Do Russians blame the US for special operation? [3/15]
What do Russians think about NATO? [3/17]
What do Russians think now? Three weeks from the start. [3/18]
Do Russians expect WWIII? [3/19]
What do Russians think about "Z" ? [3/20]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:47 PM on March 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
I hope this doesn't go into wargaming:
Honest question: warfare mortality numbers have never been a concern for Russia’s rulers, tho, has it?
According to this RAND report along with a CPA report, Russia does not have the capacity to sustain losses they saw in Georgia or Syria and have changed their tactics to encirclement and indirect fire to limit losses:
"Russia no longer has massive manpower advantages over its potential adversaries, nor can it trade space for time in light of the speed, range, and hitting power of modern aerial-delivered munitions."
So it may be the RAND report is wrong, which would be surprising on how it is right on nearly every point including how disjointed the offensive would be. It also noted that the warfare would not mimic Western warfare.
I've seen a lot of YouTube armchair generals talk about how Russia isn't afraid to lose troops and that's true relative to Western warfare (as many reports including the RAND one notes), but any serious examination has pretty much nailed Russia's approach (long range artillery fire, indiscriminate bombing, encirclement, unconventional warfare) except for the high casualty count they've sustained.
posted by geoff. at 4:49 PM on March 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
Honest question: warfare mortality numbers have never been a concern for Russia’s rulers, tho, has it?
According to this RAND report along with a CPA report, Russia does not have the capacity to sustain losses they saw in Georgia or Syria and have changed their tactics to encirclement and indirect fire to limit losses:
"Russia no longer has massive manpower advantages over its potential adversaries, nor can it trade space for time in light of the speed, range, and hitting power of modern aerial-delivered munitions."
So it may be the RAND report is wrong, which would be surprising on how it is right on nearly every point including how disjointed the offensive would be. It also noted that the warfare would not mimic Western warfare.
I've seen a lot of YouTube armchair generals talk about how Russia isn't afraid to lose troops and that's true relative to Western warfare (as many reports including the RAND one notes), but any serious examination has pretty much nailed Russia's approach (long range artillery fire, indiscriminate bombing, encirclement, unconventional warfare) except for the high casualty count they've sustained.
posted by geoff. at 4:49 PM on March 21, 2022 [10 favorites]
Anonymous Takes Anti-Putin Battle To Russian People With Printer Attack To Disrupt Kremlin's Propaganda... It is printing anti-propaganda and tor instructions to hacked printers all over Russia
posted by homunculus at 5:04 PM on March 21, 2022 [27 favorites]
posted by homunculus at 5:04 PM on March 21, 2022 [27 favorites]
Does that mean they are hacking 156 types of Russian printers (which seems like way too many varieties of printer brands) or 156 actual printers (which is way too many copies per printer) or some third thing I am not understanding because it's late and I'm tired?
posted by joannemerriam at 5:19 PM on March 21, 2022
posted by joannemerriam at 5:19 PM on March 21, 2022
156 different SKUs/models rather than brands would seem plausible. There are a lot of variations in many model families.
posted by Dysk at 5:22 PM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 5:22 PM on March 21, 2022 [9 favorites]
Using printer drivers to our advantage is like forming an alliance with Stalin.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 6:54 PM on March 21, 2022 [48 favorites]
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 6:54 PM on March 21, 2022 [48 favorites]
History doesn’t support the arm chair generals and their idea of tough Russian leaders able to stomach and force their population to accept losses at much higher rates than us woke western babies. Lower casualty rates than the current war created massive political problems for past Russian rulers in the case of Afghanistan and the first war in Chechnya.
The myths the west has about the Russian military are rooted in post world war 2 spin doctoring by former Nazi generals about the reasons they lost the war. America paid former high level Nazi officers to write their memoirs of the war on the eastern front to keep them from being trouble makers and to learn what we could about the Soviets for our own military planning. Then with the Cold War and red scare no one read the Soviet versions or fact checked the generals for 50 years. It is a weird instance of losers writing the history books. In the last couple of decades we’re finally getting a better understanding; but that hasn’t been reflected in the popular understanding of history.
posted by interogative mood at 6:59 PM on March 21, 2022 [44 favorites]
The myths the west has about the Russian military are rooted in post world war 2 spin doctoring by former Nazi generals about the reasons they lost the war. America paid former high level Nazi officers to write their memoirs of the war on the eastern front to keep them from being trouble makers and to learn what we could about the Soviets for our own military planning. Then with the Cold War and red scare no one read the Soviet versions or fact checked the generals for 50 years. It is a weird instance of losers writing the history books. In the last couple of decades we’re finally getting a better understanding; but that hasn’t been reflected in the popular understanding of history.
posted by interogative mood at 6:59 PM on March 21, 2022 [44 favorites]
Quite aside from whether or not Russia is able to stomach the losses politically it sounds like they've already been struggling to scare up soldiers and it won't get any easier as things go on.
posted by VTX at 7:03 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by VTX at 7:03 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Honest question: warfare mortality numbers have never been a concern for Russia’s rulers, tho, has it?
Estimated Russian wartime military deaths in the last ~110 years (broadly summarized from the following Wikipedia articles):
posted by cenoxo at 7:28 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Estimated Russian wartime military deaths in the last ~110 years (broadly summarized from the following Wikipedia articles):
• World War I (1914-1918) … Russian Empire: 775,000 to 2,254,000With these precedents - not to mention any potential civilian war deaths – how much war is Putin’s Russia willing (and able) to pay for starting in 2022?
• Russian Civil War (1917-1923) … Red + White Armies: ~300,000
• World War II (1941-1945) … Soviet Union: +6,000,000
posted by cenoxo at 7:28 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
History doesn’t support the arm chair generals and their idea of tough Russian leaders able to stomach and force their population to accept losses at much higher rates than us woke western babies.
The Soviet Union did lose huge numbers of soldiers in WWII, far in excess of what any other country lost. And that's not a secret in Russia by any means.
I wouldn't want to guess at what that means for the current situation, but it's very much a fact and not spin doctoring that they sustained losses that would have been considered unthinkable in countries like the UK or the US.
posted by ssg at 7:36 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Soviet Union did lose huge numbers of soldiers in WWII, far in excess of what any other country lost. And that's not a secret in Russia by any means.
I wouldn't want to guess at what that means for the current situation, but it's very much a fact and not spin doctoring that they sustained losses that would have been considered unthinkable in countries like the UK or the US.
posted by ssg at 7:36 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
I think there might be a difference between the losses a people are willing to sustain in defense of their own country against an invading army and the losses they are willing to take in the attempted conquest of another country which poses no threat to their survival.
posted by tdismukes at 7:42 PM on March 21, 2022 [53 favorites]
posted by tdismukes at 7:42 PM on March 21, 2022 [53 favorites]
The USSR performance in WWII was also largely contingent on being invaded, and feeling like their backs were against the wall versus an enemy that literally said that they were to be exterminated. It's also worth remembering that Russia's grievous losses in WWI led to a revolution that got Russia to surrender to Germany and Austria and murder their tsar. World War I was seen by all parties as a war of sorting out who got to be champion of Europe once for all, not an existential threat for anyone -- hence the massive number of mutinies in 1916/1917, of which the Russian collapse was the most pronounced and resulted in their actual defeat.
So, those numbers about Russian deaths in World War I should be seen as a floor that exists, not as reinforcement that the Russian appetite for suffering is bottomless.
posted by bl1nk at 7:48 PM on March 21, 2022 [22 favorites]
So, those numbers about Russian deaths in World War I should be seen as a floor that exists, not as reinforcement that the Russian appetite for suffering is bottomless.
posted by bl1nk at 7:48 PM on March 21, 2022 [22 favorites]
I think there might be a difference between the losses a people are willing to sustain in defense of their own country against an invading army and the losses they are willing to take in the attempted conquest of another country which poses no threat to their survival.
But one also needs to consider who's doing the dying. Russia is a rich tapestry of ethnicities making up the ~20% of the population who isn't ethnic Russian. As long as they're the ones dying in great numbers and ethnic Russians aren't, most of the other 4/5ths of the population won't give a shit how much blood is spilled.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:49 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
But one also needs to consider who's doing the dying. Russia is a rich tapestry of ethnicities making up the ~20% of the population who isn't ethnic Russian. As long as they're the ones dying in great numbers and ethnic Russians aren't, most of the other 4/5ths of the population won't give a shit how much blood is spilled.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:49 PM on March 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Verge: Russian government bars its scientists from international conferences
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:16 PM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Minister Valery Falkov also said during a meeting with universities that scientific schools should no longer emphasize when publications are indexed through the two major international scientific databases, according to a recap sent through the Ministry’s Telegram channel.Seems like an attempt to stem brain drain.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:16 PM on March 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
A reporter describes life under siege in the Mariupol and why it was so important to break the silence.
Mstyslav Chernov, Associated Press
posted by adamvasco at 8:49 PM on March 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
Mstyslav Chernov, Associated Press
posted by adamvasco at 8:49 PM on March 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
World War 1 lead to the downfall of the Czar and his government and the civil war followed. Political stability suffers in Russia when the bodies start to pile up. Also omitted from the list is the Winter War against Finland where casualty rates played a role in forcing the Russians to make peace.
WW2 and the Russian Civil war have some unique attributes that make them exceptions to the trend.
A dictatorship can sustain somewhat higher rates of casualties but the families of the dead and wounded eventually become an unstoppable political force.
posted by interogative mood at 9:15 PM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
WW2 and the Russian Civil war have some unique attributes that make them exceptions to the trend.
A dictatorship can sustain somewhat higher rates of casualties but the families of the dead and wounded eventually become an unstoppable political force.
posted by interogative mood at 9:15 PM on March 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'm really hoping 1420 isn't secretly terrible because that is some quality nonverbal engagement with a reasonably representative variety of folks. Thank you for this, snuffleupagus.
posted by abulafa at 9:22 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by abulafa at 9:22 PM on March 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
I had the old thread open and put something there. I will share it here as well as it is worth your seeing it:
Seven year old Amelia Anisovich sings Ukrainian National anthem at refugee benefit concert in Lodz, Poland.
CW: You will tear up.
posted by y2karl at 9:52 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Seven year old Amelia Anisovich sings Ukrainian National anthem at refugee benefit concert in Lodz, Poland.
CW: You will tear up.
posted by y2karl at 9:52 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
[Just wanted to let folks know that I have created a thread specifically for discussion of the overall foreign fighters, veteran and otherwise, in Ukraine right now: you can find it here.]
posted by corb at 11:05 PM on March 21, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by corb at 11:05 PM on March 21, 2022 [24 favorites]
Interrogative mood, you'd be surprised how many times it was the losers who wrote the history books. The Scholar's Stage - History is Written by the Losers:
We say that history is written by the winners. That is sometimes true. We have no Carthaginian accounts of their war with Rome; few historians today have much sympathy for Hitler. But the thread that seems to connect many of the great histories of the pre-modern world is that they were written by the losers.posted by kmt at 11:34 PM on March 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
In his roundtable post, “Treason Makes the Historian,” Lynn Rees lists a few of the type. Herodotus wrote his history only after his exile from Halicarnassus; Xenophon wrote his memoirs only after his faction was forced out of Athens. Polybius was once a general for the Archean League, but wrote his history as a hostage at Rome. The destruction of Judea was chronicled by a Josephus, a Jew.
The is term 'Historical negationism' Historiographys errant child.
Congressional Briefing on the Ukraine Crisis
An older document with a fabulous reading list.
posted by clavdivs at 12:01 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Congressional Briefing on the Ukraine Crisis
An older document with a fabulous reading list.
posted by clavdivs at 12:01 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
I found this a quite interesting interview, with Alexey Arestovich. He's now an advisor to Andriy Yermak, head of the Presidential Office, but the interview is actually from before the 2019 elections when he wasn't part of government. The non-translated version is here.
His points about how expensive it is to be neutral was particularly good, I thought. To be neutral means you have to be prepared to stand alone, and that's difficult even if you are a mountain fortress, while Ukraine is a great big plain. And he's brutally clear about what he expects: that either Ukraine would within a decade be forced back into the control of Russia (as Belarus has been steadily), or join NATO. And that to begin the process of joining NATO meant war because Russia would intend to ruin them, and that they would have to win with support and weapons from NATO.
I think he was overly optimistic about the chances of getting a MAP out of NATO, but there was still a lot of insight. And after all the crap some people were throwing out in the early threads, about how poor little Ukraine simply didn't know its own mind and it's all NATO's fault, it's nice to hear a Ukrainian analysis about the choices and risks.
Though could really wish for a better interviewer -- there's one point where he seems pretty optimistic about sanctions, and one where he seems to dismiss them as useless, and I could wish for questions that clarified that.
posted by tavella at 12:26 AM on March 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
His points about how expensive it is to be neutral was particularly good, I thought. To be neutral means you have to be prepared to stand alone, and that's difficult even if you are a mountain fortress, while Ukraine is a great big plain. And he's brutally clear about what he expects: that either Ukraine would within a decade be forced back into the control of Russia (as Belarus has been steadily), or join NATO. And that to begin the process of joining NATO meant war because Russia would intend to ruin them, and that they would have to win with support and weapons from NATO.
I think he was overly optimistic about the chances of getting a MAP out of NATO, but there was still a lot of insight. And after all the crap some people were throwing out in the early threads, about how poor little Ukraine simply didn't know its own mind and it's all NATO's fault, it's nice to hear a Ukrainian analysis about the choices and risks.
Though could really wish for a better interviewer -- there's one point where he seems pretty optimistic about sanctions, and one where he seems to dismiss them as useless, and I could wish for questions that clarified that.
posted by tavella at 12:26 AM on March 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
I think there might be a difference between the losses a people are willing to sustain in defense of their own country against an invading army and the losses they are willing to take in the attempted conquest of another country which poses no threat to their survival.
posted by tdismukes
The main rational behind all the propaganda is that there is a threat posed to the survival of the Russian world. A common refrain from older people is that "we had to do it because Ukraine was preparing to attack us with the help of the US / NATO". There's always stories about russians abroad being discriminated against (esp. in Ukraine since before the war) and it is in a constant enough stream to amplify the problem and make it seem much more prevalent than it is in reality. Russia has in putin years been relatively lax with handing out passports (citizenship) to people of (white slavic) Russian ethnicity abroad to try to stir up / encourage separatist movements in other countries or to keep people "close to the motherland". I'm white, but not russian and I completed the naturalization process yesterday, which was ...interesting... and I'll try to write about it in another comment later. Anyway, the gist of the propaganda reasoning for this opperation is that there is growing anti-russian PEOPLE sentiment in the world and Ukraine was about to attack Russia because "the west" was influencing such sentiment in UKraine. "Nazi" as the Russian propaganda tells it isn't really about people of Jewish ancestry, is a new nazi-ism against russians (but only the good white slavic ones). They have been able to harvest the fact that "the west" is indeed against the russian government, but convinced the population that "the west" is against the people. Recently there was some twits going around twitter about russians in tblisi being a bit arrogant and I was really suspicious of those tweets actually being a part of the propaganda because it could be another example of "look, the west hates and rejects our people, don't "turn west", they will betray you!" The support base for the war in russia believes the denazification rational because they have been fine-tuned to equate themselves with the Jewish people from WWII times. There really needs to be some kind of society wide cult deprogramming type thing to get the country to move forward.
posted by WeekendJen at 12:46 AM on March 22, 2022 [39 favorites]
posted by tdismukes
The main rational behind all the propaganda is that there is a threat posed to the survival of the Russian world. A common refrain from older people is that "we had to do it because Ukraine was preparing to attack us with the help of the US / NATO". There's always stories about russians abroad being discriminated against (esp. in Ukraine since before the war) and it is in a constant enough stream to amplify the problem and make it seem much more prevalent than it is in reality. Russia has in putin years been relatively lax with handing out passports (citizenship) to people of (white slavic) Russian ethnicity abroad to try to stir up / encourage separatist movements in other countries or to keep people "close to the motherland". I'm white, but not russian and I completed the naturalization process yesterday, which was ...interesting... and I'll try to write about it in another comment later. Anyway, the gist of the propaganda reasoning for this opperation is that there is growing anti-russian PEOPLE sentiment in the world and Ukraine was about to attack Russia because "the west" was influencing such sentiment in UKraine. "Nazi" as the Russian propaganda tells it isn't really about people of Jewish ancestry, is a new nazi-ism against russians (but only the good white slavic ones). They have been able to harvest the fact that "the west" is indeed against the russian government, but convinced the population that "the west" is against the people. Recently there was some twits going around twitter about russians in tblisi being a bit arrogant and I was really suspicious of those tweets actually being a part of the propaganda because it could be another example of "look, the west hates and rejects our people, don't "turn west", they will betray you!" The support base for the war in russia believes the denazification rational because they have been fine-tuned to equate themselves with the Jewish people from WWII times. There really needs to be some kind of society wide cult deprogramming type thing to get the country to move forward.
posted by WeekendJen at 12:46 AM on March 22, 2022 [39 favorites]
That advisor sounds like a total jerk, talking over the interviewer like that. He's also incredibly sure of his own analysis, I just find the whole attitude too glib rather than thoughtful. And the consequence is that he makes a mistake; logically, he undermines his own argument: He literally says that joining NATO will result in war with Russia, but doesn't see that in reality such a prediction could simply mean that neither NATO nor the EU will accept Ukraine because of that. So effectively, that interview functions as a uncritical propaganda to shift public sentiment and goad NATO into fighting Russia.
In contrast, I actually finished listening to the web discussion, DiEM25 "How to end the war in Ukraine", with progressive European activists from last week (DiEM25 is Democracy in Europe Movement 2025, a grassroots movement led by multiple academics), it included Varoufakis as well as a young Ukrainian sociologist, as well as other progressives from Belarus, Germany, etc. The viewpoints are more diverse, each voice had something different to offer and I went away more hopeful and more informed. The most interesting part was in the 2nd half of the recording, where the Ukrainian sociologist, Volodomyr, disagreed with Varoufakis on what Ukraine should try to do. But they both laid out their points clearly and respectfully, nothing like the adversarial stance taken in that interview.
I then checked DiEM25's channel and found they're doing another live episode today, "E54: Ukraine war: propaganda, xenophobia and censorship". I think that will be quite pertinent.
posted by polymodus at 1:14 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
In contrast, I actually finished listening to the web discussion, DiEM25 "How to end the war in Ukraine", with progressive European activists from last week (DiEM25 is Democracy in Europe Movement 2025, a grassroots movement led by multiple academics), it included Varoufakis as well as a young Ukrainian sociologist, as well as other progressives from Belarus, Germany, etc. The viewpoints are more diverse, each voice had something different to offer and I went away more hopeful and more informed. The most interesting part was in the 2nd half of the recording, where the Ukrainian sociologist, Volodomyr, disagreed with Varoufakis on what Ukraine should try to do. But they both laid out their points clearly and respectfully, nothing like the adversarial stance taken in that interview.
I then checked DiEM25's channel and found they're doing another live episode today, "E54: Ukraine war: propaganda, xenophobia and censorship". I think that will be quite pertinent.
posted by polymodus at 1:14 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
Here is a link to a video report out of Kyiv from the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Company): The war in Ukraine: Meet the people resisting the Russian invasion.
posted by jadepearl at 2:04 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 2:04 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
NL Times: Dutch royal family to house Ukrainian refugees in castle
Note: "loo" means woods, forest, not toilet.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:30 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Note: "loo" means woods, forest, not toilet.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:30 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Exclusive: Secret CIA training program in Ukraine helped Kyiv prepare for Russian invasion (Yahoo News):
Because of the sensitivities of the mission, the agency chose to send experienced, mature operatives, recalled former officials. The thinking was, “one miscalculation, one overzealous paramilitary guy, and we’ve got ourselves a problem,” said the former official. “Everything we did in Ukraine had a chance to be misinterpreted, and escalate the tensions.” Accompanying the more strategic-minded, veteran paramilitaries sent by the agency were tactical specialists, like snipers, who also worked for the CIA Special Activities Center.posted by kmt at 2:54 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
But after over a decade focused on the war on terror, the high-tech battlefield environment was a shock to the CIA. Russian soldiers and their proxies were using drones, cell towers and other equipment to triangulate the phones and electronic devices of the Ukrainians and CIA paramilitaries on the frontlines — and then rapidly targeting them with that information, according to former officials.
Ukrainian soldiers “were using mobile phones in a trench,” recalled a former intelligence official. “People were getting blown to bits.”
It was “almost like SkyNet in a ‘Terminator’ movie — that’s what the eastern edge of Ukraine started looking like,” says the former senior CIA official, referring to the malevolent, self-aware, weaponized artificial intelligence system in the Arnold Schwarzenegger films. The Russians’ operations on the frontlines would evolve rapidly in response to the Ukrainians’ and the CIA’s own there, according to former officials.
Russian soldiers and their proxies were using drones, cell towers and other equipment to triangulate the phones and electronic devices of the Ukrainians and CIA paramilitaries on the frontlines — and then rapidly targeting them with that information, according to former officials.
How did this come as a surprise to anyone? Do people really just not consider anything tech related when considering basic opsec? The mobile phone in the trenches issue for example should be so blindingly obvious...
posted by Dysk at 2:59 AM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
How did this come as a surprise to anyone? Do people really just not consider anything tech related when considering basic opsec? The mobile phone in the trenches issue for example should be so blindingly obvious...
posted by Dysk at 2:59 AM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
It's not just at rock concerts that mobile phones have replaced cigarette lighters then.
posted by acb at 3:19 AM on March 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:19 AM on March 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
Kevin Rothrock: Dmitry Muratov* says he is giving his Nobel Peace Prize to a foundation for Ukrainian refugees. He wants them to auction it off for money, it seems. (I think he already gave away the Nobel prize money, including some to a project started by Putin, oops.)
*He's the Novaya Gazeta editor.
posted by cendawanita at 3:23 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
*He's the Novaya Gazeta editor.
posted by cendawanita at 3:23 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Note: "loo" means woods, forest, not toilet.
The proverbial bear asks, «¿Por qué no los dos?»
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 3:46 AM on March 22, 2022 [33 favorites]
The proverbial bear asks, «¿Por qué no los dos?»
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 3:46 AM on March 22, 2022 [33 favorites]
Russian Oligarch Asset Tracker
From the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
posted by From Bklyn at 3:51 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
From the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
posted by From Bklyn at 3:51 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Eliot Cohen in The Atlantic: Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning. (Mistakenly posted to the International Brigades thread.)
posted by acb at 5:29 AM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:29 AM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
One wrinkle, regarding DiEM25, linked above. The one Eastern European political party that was part of the group, Poland’s Razem, left DiEM25 over the group’s stance on the invasion of Ukraine:
posted by Kattullus at 6:40 AM on March 22, 2022 [25 favorites]
In the absence of an unequivocal declaration recognising Ukraine’s sovereignty and an absolute condemnation of Russian imperialism by the Progressive International and the Democracy in Europe 2025 Movement, Lewica Razem ends its cooperation with these organizations.I’m not saying that people shouldn’t link to DiEM25 material, but I’d like people to keep in mind that they have been heavily criticized by Eastern European leftists for their response to the invasion.
posted by Kattullus at 6:40 AM on March 22, 2022 [25 favorites]
Also the DiEM25 video linked above seems to have a Russian propaganda talking point in its description regarding claims of growing discrimination against Russians.
posted by interogative mood at 6:58 AM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:58 AM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
they have been heavily criticized by Eastern European leftists for their response to the invasion
Case in point, Z. Brom's opinion piece at UK anarchist site FreedomNews: Fuck leftist westplaining.
posted by progosk at 7:12 AM on March 22, 2022 [28 favorites]
Case in point, Z. Brom's opinion piece at UK anarchist site FreedomNews: Fuck leftist westplaining.
posted by progosk at 7:12 AM on March 22, 2022 [28 favorites]
Why is Mariupol so important to Russian forces?
From The Guardian
posted by mumimor at 7:22 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
From The Guardian
posted by mumimor at 7:22 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Progosk, thank you for that link. That was bloody cathartic.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:26 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:26 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
At the risk of derail, thanks again for the Z. Brom piece, and I would really like to know how to get my US leftist friends from pummeling me with "this is all the West's fault and the US is worse than Russia" stuff. I can't even talk about this war with them; they skip past all the suffering to the part where they construct reasons it's all our fault, or capitalism's fault. For example, someone sent me this Australian leftist's article insinuating that the Kyiv Independent is propaganda. She seems to have a following and has some admirable goals in her About Me, but this article seems to say:
* Kyiv Independent was formed in 2021 (true).
* They got a grant from the European Endowment for Democracy (true).
* EED is related to the US NED, which she claims is an overt replacement for CIA covert propaganda.
* QED or something.
From what I can find with some web searching, the true story is:
* The Kyiv Post was a main English Ukrainian news source for around 10 years.
* They got bought by someone who discouraged the reporters from covering oligarchs and corruption.
* They balked and he fired everyone in 2021.
* They formed the Kyiv Independent and got some funding, and have a solid slight-left, reliable rating from media watch outlets.
I just don't understand why the western left persists with this sort of thing. It's propaganda of its own kind and IMO undermines socialism/social democracy/progressivism in the US and other western countries. tl;dr; To most people, it's utterly tone-deaf and paranoid and justifiably drives people like me back towards the boring centrist Democrats who may be captured by capitalism but at least have some sort of grip on reality.
Maybe we need a thread on the role of the western left in all this, or where it's ok to argue about the CIA vs. the KGB and that sort of thing.
posted by freecellwizard at 7:46 AM on March 22, 2022 [71 favorites]
* Kyiv Independent was formed in 2021 (true).
* They got a grant from the European Endowment for Democracy (true).
* EED is related to the US NED, which she claims is an overt replacement for CIA covert propaganda.
* QED or something.
From what I can find with some web searching, the true story is:
* The Kyiv Post was a main English Ukrainian news source for around 10 years.
* They got bought by someone who discouraged the reporters from covering oligarchs and corruption.
* They balked and he fired everyone in 2021.
* They formed the Kyiv Independent and got some funding, and have a solid slight-left, reliable rating from media watch outlets.
I just don't understand why the western left persists with this sort of thing. It's propaganda of its own kind and IMO undermines socialism/social democracy/progressivism in the US and other western countries. tl;dr; To most people, it's utterly tone-deaf and paranoid and justifiably drives people like me back towards the boring centrist Democrats who may be captured by capitalism but at least have some sort of grip on reality.
Maybe we need a thread on the role of the western left in all this, or where it's ok to argue about the CIA vs. the KGB and that sort of thing.
posted by freecellwizard at 7:46 AM on March 22, 2022 [71 favorites]
My guess is that the dopamine hit of “knowing” things that The Sheeple are ignorant of is a powerful drug (see also: QAnon and its offshoots), that and the meme that all evil comes from Washington is deeply enough established that a certain type of earnest leftist with more faith than analytical skills will want to believe that anyone who stands against the Yankee Mickey Mouse Coca-Colonialist imperialists is a liberator, even if to the average less enlightened person they look like a blood-soaked tyrant.
posted by acb at 7:53 AM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:53 AM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
the war visited upon Ukraine has been an information war for years, and the casualties of the information war are revealed in the growing "popular movements" that will form up protests, convoys, etc. and decry public health efforts to mitigate the impact of a global pandemic, for example. the information war will shift for those of us separated from the death and violence war, it's a matter of time. everyone with eyeballs and screens is stepping into the information war daily, some of us just seem to not be as aware (or think we are conscious of it all, all of it, but I doubt that for any of us). no-one is so smart as to avoid a war. Saturday night at a party, a Syrian refugee explained to me how this is NATO's fault. the war is here.
posted by elkevelvet at 8:01 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 8:01 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
At the risk of derail, thanks again for the Z. Brom piece, and I would really like to know how to get my US leftist friends from pummeling me with "this is all the West's fault and the US is worse than Russia" stuff. I can't even talk about this war with them;
If you'll allow me to indulge in hippy dippy for a moment, I think it's best to keep in mind that not everyone has the same Western™ experience and to be careful not to invalidate lived experiences. For a person like me, The West™ vs Russia is easy because for me it's better the devil you know. If I have a gun to my head to choose between democratic corporatism and authoritarian fascism I'm going to be a democratic corporatist because I (vaguely) know my place in the system and I know how to make my way forward in the system. It's not going to stop me from advocating and working for change in the system because I know the system is fucking broken but in this particular moment for this particular topic, I'm quite happy that we're using our military might to flood Ukraine with all the anti-armor weapons they need to fight back against Russian aggression.
On the other hand, for a few of my mutuals their experience of The West™ has been a diet version of authoritarian fascism. They really hate that people are suffering and they look suspiciously at our system having lived through it. Do I speak about Russia being the greater of the evils right now to them? Hell fucking no. Am I going to share Zosia's article with them? Not on my fucking life. It's reading the room. When you've spent most of your life just trying to survive in an utterly fucked up system the grass may in fact appear greener on the other side and I'm not going to invalidate that because from their perspective, through their experiences, it looks just as obviously true as me knowing that Russian aggression is the worst of two evils right now.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:04 AM on March 22, 2022 [30 favorites]
If you'll allow me to indulge in hippy dippy for a moment, I think it's best to keep in mind that not everyone has the same Western™ experience and to be careful not to invalidate lived experiences. For a person like me, The West™ vs Russia is easy because for me it's better the devil you know. If I have a gun to my head to choose between democratic corporatism and authoritarian fascism I'm going to be a democratic corporatist because I (vaguely) know my place in the system and I know how to make my way forward in the system. It's not going to stop me from advocating and working for change in the system because I know the system is fucking broken but in this particular moment for this particular topic, I'm quite happy that we're using our military might to flood Ukraine with all the anti-armor weapons they need to fight back against Russian aggression.
On the other hand, for a few of my mutuals their experience of The West™ has been a diet version of authoritarian fascism. They really hate that people are suffering and they look suspiciously at our system having lived through it. Do I speak about Russia being the greater of the evils right now to them? Hell fucking no. Am I going to share Zosia's article with them? Not on my fucking life. It's reading the room. When you've spent most of your life just trying to survive in an utterly fucked up system the grass may in fact appear greener on the other side and I'm not going to invalidate that because from their perspective, through their experiences, it looks just as obviously true as me knowing that Russian aggression is the worst of two evils right now.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:04 AM on March 22, 2022 [30 favorites]
N.B. White, middle class tankies can go fuck themselves. They know Russia is a worse place than the West and they know every Ukrainian would be worse off under Russian rule. They just hate the idea that Western military might being useful more than they care about the welfare of Ukrainians.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:08 AM on March 22, 2022 [36 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:08 AM on March 22, 2022 [36 favorites]
Ukrainian Pravda: The only Russian plant to assemble tanks has stopped
The Uralvagonzavod plant and the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant, which manufacture and repair tanks and other armoured vehicles for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, have suspended their work.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:16 AM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; Defence Express
Details: Work was suspended due to the lack of essential foreign-made components.
According to Defence Express, Uralvagonzavod is the only plant in Russia that carries out serial assembly of tanks, both for the needs of the Russian army and for export.
Caitlin Johnstone in particular keeps showing up on my TL, 50:50 for not being a terf (good) or being a tankie (bad)
posted by cendawanita at 8:36 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 8:36 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
In addition, the closure of these plants has put over 30,000 people in Russia out of work.
posted by vers at 8:37 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by vers at 8:37 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Eliot Cohen in The Atlantic: Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning. (Mistakenly posted to the International Brigades thread.)
posted by acb at 5:29 AM on March 22
This is a very optimistic assessment of Ukraine's current position in the invasion. I hope all of it is true
posted by bluesky43 at 9:04 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:29 AM on March 22
This is a very optimistic assessment of Ukraine's current position in the invasion. I hope all of it is true
posted by bluesky43 at 9:04 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
And now for a triple comment, the girl whose surname I previously misspelled is here again singing the Ukrainian national anthem only this time including her reaction to the audience's applause which makes it much more precious, imho:
Amelia Anisovych
posted by y2karl at 9:18 AM on March 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
Amelia Anisovych
posted by y2karl at 9:18 AM on March 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
I think there should probably be a separate thread about the role of the international Left in, and attitude towards, the invasion of Ukraine, but I'm not sure this is it. I don't have much to offer on the topic, but I think there are certainly people here whose opinions and thoughts I'd like to read.
This article has showed up in my various feeds a few times over the last 24 hours, most recently recommended by a historian friend and a few others. I found it to be an interesting read:
Putin’s megalomania is encountering reality
The Critic (UK), by Peter Caddick–Adams, 21 Mar 2022
(I admit to not really knowing much about the publication; it appears to be a legitimate long-form weekly magazine, but not one I'd really followed in the past. Perhaps UK MeFites can opine as to its editorial stance. The author, Caddick-Adams, is a graduate of Sandhurst and served in the Territorial Army as the official NATO Historian in Bosnia in the 90s, then again as Historian—a position I find rather interesting—during the invasion of Iraq. Seems to have his head screwed on right, anyway.)
His overall analysis is that the Russians seem to have jumped the gun in terms of timing the invasion, for reasons that are unclear and possibly unknowable to us outside the Kremlin. (One theory is that Putin may be ill, or feeling his mortality for one reason or another, and wasn't willing to wait for Nordstream to get going and for further election tampering to muddy the waters in Europe.)
He questions the actual military utility of a No Fly Zone (NFZ) in Ukraine, and posits that it's really more of a negotiating tactic by Zelenskyy than an actual request—implementing one, at this point in the war, might actually do more harm to the Ukrainian defenders than to Russia.
Further, he points out that Russia has already broadened the war beyond the borders of Ukraine, by launching missiles from both warships in the Black Sea and from land within Russia. So if and when the Ukrainians start hitting back at sites in Russian territory, as I suspect they will eventually begin to do if they successfully halt and reverse Russian momentum, the inevitable Russian faux-outrage at "escalation" should be rightly ignored.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:27 AM on March 22, 2022 [14 favorites]
This article has showed up in my various feeds a few times over the last 24 hours, most recently recommended by a historian friend and a few others. I found it to be an interesting read:
Putin’s megalomania is encountering reality
The Critic (UK), by Peter Caddick–Adams, 21 Mar 2022
(I admit to not really knowing much about the publication; it appears to be a legitimate long-form weekly magazine, but not one I'd really followed in the past. Perhaps UK MeFites can opine as to its editorial stance. The author, Caddick-Adams, is a graduate of Sandhurst and served in the Territorial Army as the official NATO Historian in Bosnia in the 90s, then again as Historian—a position I find rather interesting—during the invasion of Iraq. Seems to have his head screwed on right, anyway.)
His overall analysis is that the Russians seem to have jumped the gun in terms of timing the invasion, for reasons that are unclear and possibly unknowable to us outside the Kremlin. (One theory is that Putin may be ill, or feeling his mortality for one reason or another, and wasn't willing to wait for Nordstream to get going and for further election tampering to muddy the waters in Europe.)
He questions the actual military utility of a No Fly Zone (NFZ) in Ukraine, and posits that it's really more of a negotiating tactic by Zelenskyy than an actual request—implementing one, at this point in the war, might actually do more harm to the Ukrainian defenders than to Russia.
Further, he points out that Russia has already broadened the war beyond the borders of Ukraine, by launching missiles from both warships in the Black Sea and from land within Russia. So if and when the Ukrainians start hitting back at sites in Russian territory, as I suspect they will eventually begin to do if they successfully halt and reverse Russian momentum, the inevitable Russian faux-outrage at "escalation" should be rightly ignored.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:27 AM on March 22, 2022 [14 favorites]
> Eliot Cohen in The Atlantic: Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning. (Mistakenly posted to the International Brigades thread.)
posted by acb at 5:29 AM on March 22
This is a very optimistic assessment of Ukraine's current position in the invasion. I hope all of it is true
I think it’s undeniable that the invasion is going worse than the Russians expected, but otherwise we’re deep in the fog of war. If this is becoming a war of attrition then, after countless deaths and unfathomable brutality, Russia still has everything they need to win it if they continue to have the will. Until we see Ukraine pushing back the Russian lines and liberating cities, stopping the siege of Mariupol for example, it doesn’t seem like we can say they’re « winning »
posted by dis_integration at 9:33 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:29 AM on March 22
This is a very optimistic assessment of Ukraine's current position in the invasion. I hope all of it is true
I think it’s undeniable that the invasion is going worse than the Russians expected, but otherwise we’re deep in the fog of war. If this is becoming a war of attrition then, after countless deaths and unfathomable brutality, Russia still has everything they need to win it if they continue to have the will. Until we see Ukraine pushing back the Russian lines and liberating cities, stopping the siege of Mariupol for example, it doesn’t seem like we can say they’re « winning »
posted by dis_integration at 9:33 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch on Twitter
NEW: U.S. has indications that Ukraine is now "able and willing" to take back territory overtaken by the Russian military: senior U.S. defense officialposted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:44 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
Ukraine's military is now trying to push the Russians out of Izyum, in East Ukraine, and has held Mykolaiv against 🇷🇺 attack.
I just don't understand why the western left persists with this sort of thing.
they want to run the revolution - they don't want to listen to it or be ordered by it
posted by pyramid termite at 9:53 AM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
they want to run the revolution - they don't want to listen to it or be ordered by it
posted by pyramid termite at 9:53 AM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
I think there should probably be a separate thread about the role of the international Left in, and attitude towards, the invasion of Ukraine, but I'm not sure this is it. I don't have much to offer on the topic, but I think there are certainly people here whose opinions and thoughts I'd like to read.
The "historical origins" thread was originally born of a desire to discuss Chomsky's analysis, so that seems like a fine place for it.
Maybe a mod could insert "(and analysis)" in the thread title if the OP (clawsoon) doesn't mind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:07 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
The "historical origins" thread was originally born of a desire to discuss Chomsky's analysis, so that seems like a fine place for it.
Maybe a mod could insert "(and analysis)" in the thread title if the OP (clawsoon) doesn't mind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:07 AM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
METFAFILTER: boring centrist Democrats who may be captured by capitalism but at least have some sort of grip on reality.
posted by philip-random at 10:12 AM on March 22, 2022 [32 favorites]
posted by philip-random at 10:12 AM on March 22, 2022 [32 favorites]
The "historical origins" thread was originally born of a desire to discuss Chomsky's analysis, so that seems like a fine place for it.
except there's been zero action in that thread for two weeks. Something fresher seems to be required.
posted by philip-random at 10:15 AM on March 22, 2022
except there's been zero action in that thread for two weeks. Something fresher seems to be required.
posted by philip-random at 10:15 AM on March 22, 2022
If this is becoming a war of attrition then, after countless deaths and unfathomable brutality, Russia still has everything they need to win it if they continue to have the will.
Do they, though? I mean, what does victory look like to Russia? Initially, it seemed that their goal was a "thunder run" into Kyiv, decapitation of the democratic government prior to any coordinated response or mass mobilization, and the installation of a Russian-friendly autocratic puppet government, probably with a healthy serving of Russian secret police to terrorize any opposition. They wanted to roll over Ukraine like the Taliban just rolled over Afghanistan: with civilian and state-apparatus acquiescence.
That end-state is probably unavailable to them at this point. Zelenskyy survived and rallied the Ukrainian people; it is unlikely, even if the Russians kill him, that a Russian puppet state would be recognized by the people. An insurgency would doubtless ensue. And the Russians have been on the wrong side of a Western-funded insurgency / proxy war before, well within Putin's and other leaders' memory. I doubt that is an acceptable conclusion, particularly in what they see as their back yard.
What the Russians need in order to claim meaningful victory, is a negotiated settlement (or instrument of surrender) between the Zelenskyy government and Putin's. But it's unclear that the Ukrainian negotiators and the Russians could come to some sort of mutually-agreeable status for Ukraine, even if they were all acting in good faith, which of course nobody really expects Russia to be doing at this point. The Ukrainians are unlikely to give Russia two squirts of piss, much less Donetsk and Luhansk and "Finlandization", without reliable, binding security guarantees from Western powers that Russia is unlikely to accede to.
So if they can't win under current conditions, but also won't accept defeat and go home, then the question becomes: what are they willing to do, in order to make the conditions more favorable to them?
At risk of trivializing the invasion of Ukraine by comparing it to US politics, which is not my aim, I do think there are some useful parallels between how the West is trying to "manage" Putin and Russia in the international geopolitical arena, and how the political establishment in the US tried to "manage" Trump et al back in 2016.
In both cases, the rules-based establishment apparatus initially failed to deal with an "outside context problem": a person who fundamentally doesn't play by the rules of the game, because they don't respect the rules, nor do they care about the punishments the referees hand out. It's like playing a football match against a team whose response to getting shown the red card is just to punch the ref in the face. At some point you have to admit that you're not playing football, just engaged in a brawl, and any attempt to prevent brawling by channeling that energy into a regulated event has utterly failed. Might as well get the knives out.
Moreover, the Russians are not stupid, and doubtless realize that challenging the system outside of its expected input parameters—presenting it with situations that it is simply unprepared to deal with—is advantageous, perhaps their only path to victory on their terms. This is why I am concerned that we may see the Russians begin to engage in large-scale civilian hostage-taking, Generalplan Ost mass genocide veiled as deportation/relocation, use of modern and persistent chemical agents (VX or novichok agents), intentional radiological contamination, poisoning of civilian water supplies, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
As far as I can tell, it's not clear that the "rules-based international order" has a playbook for these sort of scenarios.
We seem to have basically operated for decades on the premises that "nuclear war is unthinkable and unwinnable", so better not to plan for anything other than all-out use as a deterrent; "chemical weapons were too barbaric even for Hitler", so they will probably never be used by a world power in a traditional war; and "everybody knows genocide is The Wrongest of All Wrongs", therefore no 'civilized' country would ever engage in it at scale. All of these assumptions seem to be, if not untrue, at least less dependable as premises than they were a few months ago.
At some point—perhaps soon, if they really are losing the ground war—the Russians are going to do something to try and regain control of the situation, and "escalate to deescalate" is doctrinal for them. I sure hope there are people above my pay grade thinking about what possible responses could be. One hopes it's more than more sanctions and light infantry weapons.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:29 AM on March 22, 2022 [27 favorites]
Do they, though? I mean, what does victory look like to Russia? Initially, it seemed that their goal was a "thunder run" into Kyiv, decapitation of the democratic government prior to any coordinated response or mass mobilization, and the installation of a Russian-friendly autocratic puppet government, probably with a healthy serving of Russian secret police to terrorize any opposition. They wanted to roll over Ukraine like the Taliban just rolled over Afghanistan: with civilian and state-apparatus acquiescence.
That end-state is probably unavailable to them at this point. Zelenskyy survived and rallied the Ukrainian people; it is unlikely, even if the Russians kill him, that a Russian puppet state would be recognized by the people. An insurgency would doubtless ensue. And the Russians have been on the wrong side of a Western-funded insurgency / proxy war before, well within Putin's and other leaders' memory. I doubt that is an acceptable conclusion, particularly in what they see as their back yard.
What the Russians need in order to claim meaningful victory, is a negotiated settlement (or instrument of surrender) between the Zelenskyy government and Putin's. But it's unclear that the Ukrainian negotiators and the Russians could come to some sort of mutually-agreeable status for Ukraine, even if they were all acting in good faith, which of course nobody really expects Russia to be doing at this point. The Ukrainians are unlikely to give Russia two squirts of piss, much less Donetsk and Luhansk and "Finlandization", without reliable, binding security guarantees from Western powers that Russia is unlikely to accede to.
So if they can't win under current conditions, but also won't accept defeat and go home, then the question becomes: what are they willing to do, in order to make the conditions more favorable to them?
At risk of trivializing the invasion of Ukraine by comparing it to US politics, which is not my aim, I do think there are some useful parallels between how the West is trying to "manage" Putin and Russia in the international geopolitical arena, and how the political establishment in the US tried to "manage" Trump et al back in 2016.
In both cases, the rules-based establishment apparatus initially failed to deal with an "outside context problem": a person who fundamentally doesn't play by the rules of the game, because they don't respect the rules, nor do they care about the punishments the referees hand out. It's like playing a football match against a team whose response to getting shown the red card is just to punch the ref in the face. At some point you have to admit that you're not playing football, just engaged in a brawl, and any attempt to prevent brawling by channeling that energy into a regulated event has utterly failed. Might as well get the knives out.
Moreover, the Russians are not stupid, and doubtless realize that challenging the system outside of its expected input parameters—presenting it with situations that it is simply unprepared to deal with—is advantageous, perhaps their only path to victory on their terms. This is why I am concerned that we may see the Russians begin to engage in large-scale civilian hostage-taking, Generalplan Ost mass genocide veiled as deportation/relocation, use of modern and persistent chemical agents (VX or novichok agents), intentional radiological contamination, poisoning of civilian water supplies, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
As far as I can tell, it's not clear that the "rules-based international order" has a playbook for these sort of scenarios.
We seem to have basically operated for decades on the premises that "nuclear war is unthinkable and unwinnable", so better not to plan for anything other than all-out use as a deterrent; "chemical weapons were too barbaric even for Hitler", so they will probably never be used by a world power in a traditional war; and "everybody knows genocide is The Wrongest of All Wrongs", therefore no 'civilized' country would ever engage in it at scale. All of these assumptions seem to be, if not untrue, at least less dependable as premises than they were a few months ago.
At some point—perhaps soon, if they really are losing the ground war—the Russians are going to do something to try and regain control of the situation, and "escalate to deescalate" is doctrinal for them. I sure hope there are people above my pay grade thinking about what possible responses could be. One hopes it's more than more sanctions and light infantry weapons.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:29 AM on March 22, 2022 [27 favorites]
On the grain front:
Reuters' Idrees Ali on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:44 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
Reuters' Idrees Ali on Twitter
LVIV, Ukraine, March 22 (Reuters) - Ukraine's spring crop sowing area may more than halve this year from 2021 levels to some 7 million hectares, its Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko said on Tuesday, versus 15 million hectares expected before the Russian invasion.I've also seen this described as "Ukraine to bring in half its harvest despite war."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:44 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
I sure hope there are people above my pay grade thinking about what possible responses could be.
Of course there are. Billions of dollars (trillions?) have been expended around this issue, depending on how you want to measure it over what timeframe.
One hopes it's more than more sanctions and light infantry weapons.
It is, the flip side of avoiding first use under deterrence is an overwhelming response. So, be careful what you hope for. History's judgment might be that more sanctions and light infantry weapons would have been preferable to a nuclear exchange (in an area the world depends on for food production); as was the calculus during the many proxy conflicts of the Cold War.
This is not really an outside context problem, per Excession. This is a very well known problem and dilemma. There is a certain extent to which Putin wins and achieves his aims simply by allowing him to foist the same calculus upon the international system as the Soviet Union did, despite Russia's demographic, economic and military realities beyond the nukes. But the nukes are there. And that's about as much as we've all been asked to say in these threads.
Edit: Russia's inherited seat on the Security Council is there, too.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:52 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Of course there are. Billions of dollars (trillions?) have been expended around this issue, depending on how you want to measure it over what timeframe.
One hopes it's more than more sanctions and light infantry weapons.
It is, the flip side of avoiding first use under deterrence is an overwhelming response. So, be careful what you hope for. History's judgment might be that more sanctions and light infantry weapons would have been preferable to a nuclear exchange (in an area the world depends on for food production); as was the calculus during the many proxy conflicts of the Cold War.
This is not really an outside context problem, per Excession. This is a very well known problem and dilemma. There is a certain extent to which Putin wins and achieves his aims simply by allowing him to foist the same calculus upon the international system as the Soviet Union did, despite Russia's demographic, economic and military realities beyond the nukes. But the nukes are there. And that's about as much as we've all been asked to say in these threads.
Edit: Russia's inherited seat on the Security Council is there, too.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:52 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
From Meduza's Kevin Rothrock ~11 hours ago:
I have only seen this reported in the Ukrainian press. Has anyone found corroboration elsewhere? I do not trust reports by Nexta or UNIAN. The last Russian reports about Uralvagonzavod I see were on March 18 and pertain to new Japanese sanctions against the company.posted by spamandkimchi at 10:54 AM on March 22, 2022
Quote Tweet: "NEXTA @nexta_tv #Russia's only tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, has stopped its production. The main reason for this is a lack of component parts."
On the necessary creativity of protesting war in a country where mentioning war is a crime.
Michael Idov 🌻@michaelidov
Gallows humor at its best: an independent Russian media site put up a list of legal ways of referring to the war (since calling it a war is punishable by prison). Includes "half of a Tolstoy title," "make love not this" and even "à la this comme à la this
Kevin Rothrock:
Folks, the phrase here is “fuck war,” not “no to war.” The whole joke is that protesters have to censor the word “war” (voina) like they do an obscenity (in this case, khui). This issue is now closed. No one is allowed to @ me any further. By order of GOD. Quote Tweet: "A court in Moscow has fined Dmitry Reznikov 50,000 rubles ($480) for picketing with this sign (the asterisks allude to the phrase “Fuck war!”). He was convicted of “discrediting Russia’s armed forces.”
Rothrock again: Police in Petersburg arrest another demonstrator with a sign that says merely, “NO!” (There are also five horizontal lines indicating the word “voine,” or “to war.”)
posted by spamandkimchi at 11:00 AM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
Michael Idov 🌻@michaelidov
Gallows humor at its best: an independent Russian media site put up a list of legal ways of referring to the war (since calling it a war is punishable by prison). Includes "half of a Tolstoy title," "make love not this" and even "à la this comme à la this
Kevin Rothrock:
Folks, the phrase here is “fuck war,” not “no to war.” The whole joke is that protesters have to censor the word “war” (voina) like they do an obscenity (in this case, khui). This issue is now closed. No one is allowed to @ me any further. By order of GOD. Quote Tweet: "A court in Moscow has fined Dmitry Reznikov 50,000 rubles ($480) for picketing with this sign (the asterisks allude to the phrase “Fuck war!”). He was convicted of “discrediting Russia’s armed forces.”
Rothrock again: Police in Petersburg arrest another demonstrator with a sign that says merely, “NO!” (There are also five horizontal lines indicating the word “voine,” or “to war.”)
posted by spamandkimchi at 11:00 AM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
Greece Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:05 AM on March 22, 2022 [12 favorites]
Today I also sent a note verbale to the Ukrainian side asking for the facilitation of the delivery of humanitarian aid in #Mariupol and another note verbale to the Russian side asking not to obstruct it. I intend to accompany this aid in person.Note verbale is a type of diplomatic communication.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:05 AM on March 22, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'm an American who considers himself a leftist. I've gotten the feeling over the past several years that a new (or at least new-to-me) understanding of the word "leftist" is developing, or perhaps has developed, meaning (in terms I'm more familiar with, and that are perhaps now out of date) "extreme left" sometimes, or "tankie" sometimes, or "insane Assange/Greenwald/Gabbard-esque person who no one should take seriously and who really only has a vague overlap with leftness anyway" sometimes, or some combination thereof.
That's not me, and it's not anybody who I know either (at least as far as I can tell). So all the "The American/West left is Westsplaining to me about how America/the West are unequivocally horrible and how this is all their fault and Putin's just misunderstood and Ukraine's getting what's coming to it" takes that have been periodically popping up in this thread and previous related threads seem... really weird to me. Almost concern-trollish (though I'm not accusing anyone of that, and I believe you when you say it's happening).
Again, I guess maybe "leftist" is not a fitting description of me or those I know anymore (despite that I'm most definitely on the left). And maybe I'm just old and out of touch with the current popular opinions on the left. But... maybe what you consider "the left" is not really all that representative of the left? I dunno.
posted by Flunkie at 11:06 AM on March 22, 2022 [25 favorites]
That's not me, and it's not anybody who I know either (at least as far as I can tell). So all the "The American/West left is Westsplaining to me about how America/the West are unequivocally horrible and how this is all their fault and Putin's just misunderstood and Ukraine's getting what's coming to it" takes that have been periodically popping up in this thread and previous related threads seem... really weird to me. Almost concern-trollish (though I'm not accusing anyone of that, and I believe you when you say it's happening).
Again, I guess maybe "leftist" is not a fitting description of me or those I know anymore (despite that I'm most definitely on the left). And maybe I'm just old and out of touch with the current popular opinions on the left. But... maybe what you consider "the left" is not really all that representative of the left? I dunno.
posted by Flunkie at 11:06 AM on March 22, 2022 [25 favorites]
Rumors that Ukraine has managed to cut off some of the Russian positions around Kyiv today and at least temporarily surround them as part of a counter offensive. @sentdefender (OSINTdefender) a Twitter based monitor and aggregator of open source intelligence has also highlighted multiple tweets by various defense journalists that US Military / Intel officials think that Ukraine has gained the upper hand in several areas and is now in a position for counter attacks on multiple fronts.
posted by interogative mood at 11:11 AM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:11 AM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Tankies have always been a thing, and this is just the new generation of them. It's far from all of the left, but they often are particularly showy.
posted by tavella at 11:11 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by tavella at 11:11 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
And also extremely online.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:13 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:13 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
There's a huge terminology fight between people who use the terms "leftist" and "liberal," and god they seem to hate each other more than they hate "conservatives" and fascists. I just call myself a "progressive" but there's probably something problematic about that too.
posted by rikschell at 11:13 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 11:13 AM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
(well, I shouldn't say always, but since the 1920s at least, even if the common name came from those who cheered for the crushing of Hungary's resistance.)
posted by tavella at 11:13 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by tavella at 11:13 AM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
I have been accused by self-identified tankies of making bad faith arguments or 'being biased by personal trauma' (because I'm of Hungarian descent) when reminding of them of that origin.
Not that Tiananmen Square (or the Prague Spring) were picnics either.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:19 AM on March 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
Not that Tiananmen Square (or the Prague Spring) were picnics either.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:19 AM on March 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm as guilty as the next person with tone policing, and I apologize in advance, but I truly appreciate the reminders re: "westplaining" and I hope this does not elicit a ton of comments as to whether we're all on the same page re: what a US/Canadian/British "leftist" is (etc.). There have been many long-ish derails on any number of aspects to this conflict, which remains a conflict in which primarily Ukrainian and Russian lives are being extinguished. I'm not sure my primary concern is whether it's fair to say there is westplaining (clearly this is happening, a lot), or whether we have the right sense of what left politics means in (name your country). Is that okay to put out there?
posted by elkevelvet at 11:23 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 11:23 AM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
‘We were lucky. Only two mortar shells hit our house’ A survivor of the siege of Mariupol tells the story of his family’s escape
We had to carry a whole lot of water. It takes six liters [1.6 gallons] just to flush the toilet. Plus, the city’s water is drying up. The dams that directed the river into the city have been destroyed so the water is really shallow now.posted by spamandkimchi at 11:32 AM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
The river water is not safe for drinking and cooking. There’s no drinking water in Mariupol, it’s all imported. After we drank all of the bottled water, we had to go to the well, like it was the nineteenth century. In order to draw water from the well, you had to wait in a huge line for like three hours. No matter when you got there, there were always 70 or 80 people already waiting. That was at the church well where the water is cleaner. At other wells, where it’s less clean, there could be 30 or 40 people, but it would still be a long wait.
visited a Russian friend (who lives here) today. He is so ashamed, and obsessed with that shame and the hopelessness. I tried to cheer him up by saying that the West was complicit in breaking instead of building Russia after the Cold War ended, and he would hear NOTHING of it. On reflection I can see how that takes way the agency of the Russian people. He wants to believe they had agency and chose wrongly.
Now I feel ashamed.
posted by mumimor at 11:45 AM on March 22, 2022 [45 favorites]
Now I feel ashamed.
posted by mumimor at 11:45 AM on March 22, 2022 [45 favorites]
Dan Lamothe (WaPo) - Background briefing from senior US defense official Mar 22nd.
More signs of logistical Russian issues: "Continued morale issues among Russian soldiers seen, senior defense official says. In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue."
posted by storybored at 12:00 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
More signs of logistical Russian issues: "Continued morale issues among Russian soldiers seen, senior defense official says. In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue."
posted by storybored at 12:00 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Idrees Ahmad (Byline Times) shows how the propaganda weapons the Kremlin tried out in Syria are missing their targets in the current war, but urges vigilance to new ones
posted by adamvasco at 12:02 PM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 12:02 PM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
On reflection I can see how that takes way the agency of the Russian people. He wants to believe they had agency and chose wrongly.
I'm not sure they did. At every step, political opposition has been poisoned, assassinated with a bullet in the forehead, or jailed. When constitutional term limits got in the way, they were worked around. Journalistic freedom in Russia ranks near the bottom, and the regime is only making changes in the downward direction. Even the election itself is rife with corruption: ballot stuffing, violence against observers, and so on.
It seems like the cabal running Russia is doing everything in its power to strip away the agency of the Russian people, and sad as it is, by all measures it appears to have worked.
posted by pwnguin at 12:21 PM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm not sure they did. At every step, political opposition has been poisoned, assassinated with a bullet in the forehead, or jailed. When constitutional term limits got in the way, they were worked around. Journalistic freedom in Russia ranks near the bottom, and the regime is only making changes in the downward direction. Even the election itself is rife with corruption: ballot stuffing, violence against observers, and so on.
It seems like the cabal running Russia is doing everything in its power to strip away the agency of the Russian people, and sad as it is, by all measures it appears to have worked.
posted by pwnguin at 12:21 PM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.
Can we call this Operation Bizarorosa?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:22 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Can we call this Operation Bizarorosa?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:22 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
John Sweeney
@johnsweeneyroar
Hiya: I now have 5 confirmations - the 5th from my pal fighter
@brokenpixelua
- this story is true, that Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian Army at Bucha, NW of Kyiv. (Warning: I am in Kyiv centre so I can't verify this myself.) That Vladimir Putin's war is in trouble.
/I take this as unverified but I've been watching John Sweeney's daily videos from Ukraine for about two weeks and it doesn't strike me as propaganda. He always differentiates from what he knows and what he has been told. He seems to be an independent journalist/writer from the UK. YMMV and I don't know about his source.
posted by bluesky43 at 12:44 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
@johnsweeneyroar
Hiya: I now have 5 confirmations - the 5th from my pal fighter
@brokenpixelua
- this story is true, that Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian Army at Bucha, NW of Kyiv. (Warning: I am in Kyiv centre so I can't verify this myself.) That Vladimir Putin's war is in trouble.
/I take this as unverified but I've been watching John Sweeney's daily videos from Ukraine for about two weeks and it doesn't strike me as propaganda. He always differentiates from what he knows and what he has been told. He seems to be an independent journalist/writer from the UK. YMMV and I don't know about his source.
posted by bluesky43 at 12:44 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
Absolutely not ready to confirm if the Ukrainian military are really surrounding the Russian group in the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle.
But what is true is that there have been intense fighting several nights in a row, and Ukrainian units were very active cleaning out Irpin.
2:39 PM · Mar 22, 2022
/Ponomarenko is the defense reporter with the Kyiv Independent, again, not definitive.
posted by bluesky43 at 12:48 PM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
@IAPonomarenko
Absolutely not ready to confirm if the Ukrainian military are really surrounding the Russian group in the Hostomel-Irpin-Bucha triangle.
But what is true is that there have been intense fighting several nights in a row, and Ukrainian units were very active cleaning out Irpin.
2:39 PM · Mar 22, 2022
/Ponomarenko is the defense reporter with the Kyiv Independent, again, not definitive.
posted by bluesky43 at 12:48 PM on March 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Newline Magazine: In Kharkiv’s Rubble, Hatred for Russia Is Strong
I can't see any way that Russia comes out of this stronger on any axis; imo, it's going to take generations and in the meantime, they'll be worse off than any developing nation both in terms of economy/standard of living and image around the world.
posted by vers at 12:53 PM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
I can't see any way that Russia comes out of this stronger on any axis; imo, it's going to take generations and in the meantime, they'll be worse off than any developing nation both in terms of economy/standard of living and image around the world.
posted by vers at 12:53 PM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
An encirclement would be a disaster for the Russians reminiscent of the French defeat at Dein Bien Phu. Russian commanders are probably having flashbacks 1994-1995 Battle of Grozny.
posted by interogative mood at 12:57 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:57 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
The next problem for Ukraine will be how to deal with all the PoW's if the news of this encirclement is correct.
posted by adamvasco at 1:15 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 1:15 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
BBC's Gordon Corera on Twitter
However, if we start with the number wounded we would expect around 4-5,000 killed which is half the number cited. This suggests that Russian soldiers may be dying that shouldn't be. Possibly as a result of the logistics difficulties we've seen.
Of course, there may be other explanations and this assumes those are legit numbers to start with.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:21 PM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
New - 10,000 Russians killed is a ‘reasonable estimate’, a western official says. The figure briefly appeared on a pro-Kremlim website, possibly after being hacked, before being quickly deleted. The official added this would mean a further 30-40,000 wounded or incapacitatedA 3 or 4 to 1 wounded/killed ratio would be indeed be a reasonable assumption. The odd thing is that the info cited includes a figure for wounded: about 16,000. Seems low.
However, if we start with the number wounded we would expect around 4-5,000 killed which is half the number cited. This suggests that Russian soldiers may be dying that shouldn't be. Possibly as a result of the logistics difficulties we've seen.
Of course, there may be other explanations and this assumes those are legit numbers to start with.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:21 PM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Anyway, the gist of the propaganda reasoning for this opperation is that there is growing anti-russian PEOPLE sentiment in the world and Ukraine was about to attack Russia because "the west" was influencing such sentiment in UKraine
And yet Putin also says that Ukraine and its people are essentially, indivisibly Russian. How can these Ukrainians who are really Russians be committing anti-Russian genocide against other Russians? Go figure.
(I know -- authoritarians don't have to be consistent or make sense. See also: Trump, Donald.)
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:48 PM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
And yet Putin also says that Ukraine and its people are essentially, indivisibly Russian. How can these Ukrainians who are really Russians be committing anti-Russian genocide against other Russians? Go figure.
(I know -- authoritarians don't have to be consistent or make sense. See also: Trump, Donald.)
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:48 PM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
This suggests that Russian soldiers may be dying that shouldn't be. Possibly as a result of the logistics difficulties we've seen.
It's likely a combination of the logistical difficulties - what is their medevac process? We haven't really seen any major Russian medevacs taking place, and also, the KIA generals suggests it may not exist - surely if any medevacs existed they would be for higher priority individuals.
Whether you believe in the golden hour or not, there is only so much that can be done without removal to at least a field hospital - which we have seen, thus far, no evidence of. However, it's worth noting that medevacs only are highly encouraged when you're in a situation where you can replace troops - if they're unable to replace troops, then it seems likely that Russian officers might be trying to patch people in the field and keep them moving, which is tactics we haven't seen for fifty years or more and might explain the skewed statistics.
posted by corb at 2:30 PM on March 22, 2022 [10 favorites]
It's likely a combination of the logistical difficulties - what is their medevac process? We haven't really seen any major Russian medevacs taking place, and also, the KIA generals suggests it may not exist - surely if any medevacs existed they would be for higher priority individuals.
Whether you believe in the golden hour or not, there is only so much that can be done without removal to at least a field hospital - which we have seen, thus far, no evidence of. However, it's worth noting that medevacs only are highly encouraged when you're in a situation where you can replace troops - if they're unable to replace troops, then it seems likely that Russian officers might be trying to patch people in the field and keep them moving, which is tactics we haven't seen for fifty years or more and might explain the skewed statistics.
posted by corb at 2:30 PM on March 22, 2022 [10 favorites]
Some trolling from Ukraine:
Head of Anti-corruption agency of Ukraine sent a letter to Russian defense minister Shoigu thanking him for embezzlement of Russian army
Link to original letter is in the thread.
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:31 PM on March 22, 2022 [23 favorites]
Head of Anti-corruption agency of Ukraine sent a letter to Russian defense minister Shoigu thanking him for embezzlement of Russian army
Link to original letter is in the thread.
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:31 PM on March 22, 2022 [23 favorites]
I posted this in the last thread: "Russia throws untrained civilians from occupied Donbas into hot spots of its war in Ukraine" (Kyiv Independent). Has anybody seen this get picked up anywhere? When I search on conscription in Donbas, I get a lot of stories about Russian soldiers who were conscripts who are fighting there, not Russian-speaking Ukrainians being conscripted, which seems like a pretty big distinction.
posted by joannemerriam at 2:36 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by joannemerriam at 2:36 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine Could Lose $6 Billion in Grain Exports with Ports Blocked, gCaptain, Silvia Aloisi & Pavel Polityuk (Reuters), LVIV March 21, 2022 [organization links added]:
posted by cenoxo at 2:39 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukraine faces a possible grain revenue loss of $6 billion as the blockade of its ports by Russian forces prevents it from selling millions of tonnes of wheat and corn that had been earmarked for export by June, a senior industry official said. Countries that rely on imports of Ukrainian wheat – including Egypt, Turkey and Yemen – will need to find alternative supplies, aid agencies have warned.Ripples upon ripples (to the Nth degree).
Ukraine, a major producer of grain and oilseeds, exports 98% of its cereals through its ports and only a fraction by rail, where costs are higher. The country was the world’s fourth largest grain exporter in the 2020/21 season while Russia ranked third, International Grains Council (IGC) data shows. The two countries combined accounted for 22% of global exports.
But with Russian warships off Ukraine’s southern coast preventing cargo ships from leaving the ports, including the major hub of Odesa on the Black Sea, grain exports have all but ground to a halt since the start of the war on Feb. 24. Ukrainian maritime officials said fighting had left around 100 foreign-flagged vessels stranded in the country’s ports.
“We are sitting on a potential loss of $6 billion,” Mykola Gorbachev, chairman of the Ukrainian Grain Association, told Reuters. He said the country had around 20 million tonnes of wheat and corn still to export from the 2021/22 season, which ends in June, at an average price of around $300 per tonne. He said there was no way Ukraine could transport that kind of volume by train, as the railway had a throughput capacity of some 600,000 tonnes per month, a tenth of what ports handled before the war. Ukraine exported around $27 billion in agricultural products in 2021, making up about half of its total export income. “Now we are just losing this sector,” Gorbachev said.
The [United Nations] World Food Programme said on Friday that food supply chains in Ukraine were collapsing, with key infrastructure such as bridges and trains destroyed by bombs and many grocery stores and warehouses empty.
Russia, which has been hit by Western sanctions and has imposed export curbs, had been the world’s top wheat exporter in 2020/21 but may lose that mantle to the European Union in the current 2021/22 season, according to IGC forecasts.
The Ukrainian crisis will add further fuel to already rampant food inflation following global supply chain problems attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. The United Nations food agency reported this month that world food prices hit a record high in February, posting a 20.7% year-on-year rise. While Ukrainians who are not trapped in besieged cities like Mariupol or Kharkiv in the east are not at an immediate risk of food shortages, the war could disrupt agriculture for a long time.
Gorbachev said Ukrainian farmers may also be thinking twice before sowing new crops out of fear for their safety but also because their grains could go unsold if the war continues. Ukrainian farmers – who produced a record grain crop last year – say they are short of fertilizer for the dormant winter wheat planted last autumn, and they also lack sufficient fuel to power their equipment. Meanwhile the new crops of corn and barley must be planted over the next month or it will be too late, Gorbachev said.
At the weekend, presidential adviser Oleh Ustenko [bio] said Ukraine may not produce enough crops to export if the invasion disrupts this year’s sowing campaigns. “Ukraine has enough grain and food reserves to survive for a year, but if the war continues … (it) will not be able to export grain to the world, and there will be problems,” he said. The country has started sowing spring grain in some areas but no mass sowing campaign has yet started, deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters last week.
posted by cenoxo at 2:39 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Possible escalation: Aljazeera - Analysts say President Lukashenko’s forces may spearhead the Russian advance on western Ukrainian regions. CNN - Belarusian military could 'soon' join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say.
posted by adamvasco at 3:05 PM on March 22, 2022
posted by adamvasco at 3:05 PM on March 22, 2022
US Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Mark Hertling on Twitter
My only response to this: When I was @USArmyEURAF Commander, we rated forces. Belarus was NOT anywhere near the top, if you get my drift. And fighting in a war the people of Belarus reject, under the orders of a President they don't support, will be "interesting."New/Lines Magazine's Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 on Twitter
A Western intel source told me Lukashenko keeps deferring deployment by about 3 days every time he’s asked by Moscow. He doesn’t want to do it either. He knows.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:32 PM on March 22, 2022 [15 favorites]
The possibility of a move by Belarus has been rumored for a while. The objectives of this attack will be to reduce Ukraine’s ability to bring supplies over the western border, to tie up Ukrainian units in defense of the west vs letting them move east and to take pressure off of other Russian units who have been unable to make progress by opening another front.
There are several problems: Belarus has a very small, poorly equipped military that has mostly been focused on parades and domestic security. Belarus’ military Is said to be against the idea because they see what happened to the Russians and they have a realistic understanding of their capabilities. Belarus’ population is against the war and the government is already very unpopular having stolen the last election and cracked down on the population. The only one who seems onboard with the idea are the President Lukanhesko and the Russians he brought in to help him keep control after the last election.
posted by interogative mood at 3:39 PM on March 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
There are several problems: Belarus has a very small, poorly equipped military that has mostly been focused on parades and domestic security. Belarus’ military Is said to be against the idea because they see what happened to the Russians and they have a realistic understanding of their capabilities. Belarus’ population is against the war and the government is already very unpopular having stolen the last election and cracked down on the population. The only one who seems onboard with the idea are the President Lukanhesko and the Russians he brought in to help him keep control after the last election.
posted by interogative mood at 3:39 PM on March 22, 2022 [8 favorites]
The grain crisis seems to me like a real opportunity for NATO countries to do something really good, and strategically useful long-term:
Maybe I'll suggest it to my Congressfolk.
posted by kristi at 3:49 PM on March 22, 2022 [14 favorites]
- have grain-producing NATO countries announce that they will be providing extensive exports of grain at greatly reduced prices to countries reliant on Ukraine's typical grain exports
- make it clear that this is only happening until the war is over and Ukraine can pick up their exports again; it is intended to feed hungry people, not in any way displace Ukraine's exports
- create an automatic short-term market for your nation's farmers - paying them a little above what the market typically bears, to acknowledge their stepping up production in an emergency
- pay the bonus to the farmers, and the costs of subsidizing and shipping the grain, out of assets seized from corrupt oligarchs
Maybe I'll suggest it to my Congressfolk.
posted by kristi at 3:49 PM on March 22, 2022 [14 favorites]
There's a follow-up from A Ukrainian punk band has released an anti-war spin on The Clash's hit song "London Calling,"
Billy Bragg posted this on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/billybraggofficial/posts/513031496851847
posted by Buntix at 3:51 PM on March 22, 2022 [32 favorites]
Billy Bragg posted this on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/billybraggofficial/posts/513031496851847
Three days ago, I posted a clip of Ukrainian band Beton (it means Concrete) performing their version of the Clash’s ‘London Calling’, rewritten as ‘Kyiv Calling’. You can see it hereBut.
https://youtu.be/xWQUkRKqp2E
My attention was subsequently drawn to photos on the band’s Facebook page showing them wearing t-shirts commemorating Stepan Bandera, a Ukrainian nationalist leader who collaborated with the Nazis during the Second World War. I deleted my original post two days ago and called the band out for their apparent support of fascism.
Yesterday, I was contacted by Andriy Zholob, the guitar player of the band, who was understandably concerned by my criticism. He’s a doctor currently working in Lviv with traumatised refugees from the war zones in his country. Beton he said are an anti-fascist band and he asked me to help craft a statement that both apologised for the offence caused by the shirts and clarified the band’s position.
I’m pleased to say that, as a result of our discussions, the band have removed the offending photos and posted the following statement on their Facebook page:
STATEMENT FROM BETON
Beton apologise for any offence caused by photos of our band members in tee shirts carrying the name of Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera. We have removed the images from our Facebook page. We understand that perceptions of Bandera around the world are different form those held by many Ukrainians. We realise he is a very controversial figure. And we would like to clarify our position.
Like many eastern European countries during the 20th century, Ukraine suffered greatly from being invaded by both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Badera’s passion for Ukrainian independence led him to both collaborate with the Nazis and then turn against them when they tried to supress the country. During the most troubling period in our nation’s history, Bandera was sent to a concentration camp for resisting the Nazis.
His experience is a reminder that our history is complex and we accept there are very dark chapters in it. Nonetheless, we believe that it is up to all Ukrainians, irrespective of their ethnic or religious affiliations, who finally have secured the opportunity to openly and democratically debate the legacy of their historical figures, to ensure that this debate includes acknowledging and accepting crimes that have been committed both against them as victims and by them as perpetrators.
We need a national debate about our history and contested memory - exactly the kind of debate that would be impossible in Putin's Russia. The invader is trapped by the past, seeing everything through the prism of Russia’s imperial history. We in Ukraine are seeking to escape that prison and to take our place as a nation free to make our own democratic choices.
This is the Ukraine that we are fighting for – a place where people of all races and creeds can work together to build a nation free from oppression.
Slava Joe Strummer & The Clash! Slava Ukraini!
The band’s statement can be seen on their Facebook page. I have also deleted the offending photo from my page.
https://www.facebook.com/1528533463844365/posts/5192391250791883/?d=n
posted by Buntix at 3:51 PM on March 22, 2022 [32 favorites]
Ukraine, a major producer of grain and oilseeds, exports 98% of its cereals through its ports and only a fraction by rail, where costs are higher.
This seems like something that Ukraine's allies in Europe could assist with, if they were inclined to, and it would present a fairly nice domestic win-win. For the cost of operating a mechanized brigade for a few months, some nations could send their corps of engineers to improve Ukraine/Europe infrastructure at "battle speed". I suspect it'd be surprising how much stuff you could build if you're motivated enough to pull out all the stops.
In fact: there's a "shovel ready" project in the form of the Košice-to-Vienna broad gauge rail line, which would bring bulk commodities from Ukraine (and, when it was proposed, Russia; not so much now) into reach of European mass markets without a gauge break, via Slovakia. I'm not sure how much of it has been completed, but as a crash, wartime-speed project, I'd imagine it could be completed on the order of months, not years. Even if the war ends before then, the Ukrainians are eventually going to have to rebuild, and would benefit from the economic boost and connectivity to Europe that it would provide.
Most wartime spending doesn't exactly appreciate in value; that might be one exception.
posted by Kadin2048 at 4:20 PM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
This seems like something that Ukraine's allies in Europe could assist with, if they were inclined to, and it would present a fairly nice domestic win-win. For the cost of operating a mechanized brigade for a few months, some nations could send their corps of engineers to improve Ukraine/Europe infrastructure at "battle speed". I suspect it'd be surprising how much stuff you could build if you're motivated enough to pull out all the stops.
In fact: there's a "shovel ready" project in the form of the Košice-to-Vienna broad gauge rail line, which would bring bulk commodities from Ukraine (and, when it was proposed, Russia; not so much now) into reach of European mass markets without a gauge break, via Slovakia. I'm not sure how much of it has been completed, but as a crash, wartime-speed project, I'd imagine it could be completed on the order of months, not years. Even if the war ends before then, the Ukrainians are eventually going to have to rebuild, and would benefit from the economic boost and connectivity to Europe that it would provide.
Most wartime spending doesn't exactly appreciate in value; that might be one exception.
posted by Kadin2048 at 4:20 PM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
re: Belarus
Watching a lot of YouTube videos yesterday, I got something instead of the usual advertisement. I didn't catch all of it, and it was poorly subtitled, but it appeared to be an appeal in Belarussian? Russian? with the basic messages of
- Belarus, don't do it. You know which one is the wrong side here.
- Now is a chance to change. This could be you, as early as next year: with footage of a woman addressing what looked like a parliament - possibly Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya?
I haven't been able to find it separately, or make it come up again. But I got the impression that someone had made a video ad directed at a Belarus audience saying more or less:
"Come away from the Dark Side before it's too late. You could be the next Ukraine (independence and prosperity) if you take this chance to get out from under Putin/Lukashenko. Or you could join them, murder your brother Ukranians, and then they'll be shelling your cities and coming for you next. Time to choose."
I wish I knew who produced it?
posted by bartleby at 4:26 PM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Watching a lot of YouTube videos yesterday, I got something instead of the usual advertisement. I didn't catch all of it, and it was poorly subtitled, but it appeared to be an appeal in Belarussian? Russian? with the basic messages of
- Belarus, don't do it. You know which one is the wrong side here.
- Now is a chance to change. This could be you, as early as next year: with footage of a woman addressing what looked like a parliament - possibly Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya?
I haven't been able to find it separately, or make it come up again. But I got the impression that someone had made a video ad directed at a Belarus audience saying more or less:
"Come away from the Dark Side before it's too late. You could be the next Ukraine (independence and prosperity) if you take this chance to get out from under Putin/Lukashenko. Or you could join them, murder your brother Ukranians, and then they'll be shelling your cities and coming for you next. Time to choose."
I wish I knew who produced it?
posted by bartleby at 4:26 PM on March 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
The grain crisis seems to me like a real opportunity for NATO countries to do something really good, and strategically useful long-term. . .
posted by kristi at 5:49 PM on March 22
I love this. My Congressfolk (Blackburn and Hagerty) are worthless traitors but they like farmers so I gave it a whirl. People can send the same as I did to their own Congressfolk by texting SIGN PKMKZL to 50409 - Resistbot will give you a chance to read before signing, just say SAMPLE instead of YES (and then say YES to send it). Resistbot calls these petitions but they are delivered as individual faxes.
posted by joannemerriam at 4:28 PM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by kristi at 5:49 PM on March 22
I love this. My Congressfolk (Blackburn and Hagerty) are worthless traitors but they like farmers so I gave it a whirl. People can send the same as I did to their own Congressfolk by texting SIGN PKMKZL to 50409 - Resistbot will give you a chance to read before signing, just say SAMPLE instead of YES (and then say YES to send it). Resistbot calls these petitions but they are delivered as individual faxes.
posted by joannemerriam at 4:28 PM on March 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
If there's a nuanced conversation happening/existing anywhere (in English) about Stepan Bandera, I'm interested in encountering it. It's not a cut/dry simple topic, in part because his alliance with Germany started with Weimar, to the best of my current understanding. I've found myself upset by the hostility directed at Ukrainian people regarding a very surface understanding of his life (Nazi) as if only terrible people have anything other than condemnation to say about Winston Churchill or Thomas Jefferson.
posted by droomoord at 4:36 PM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by droomoord at 4:36 PM on March 22, 2022 [13 favorites]
The grain crisis seems to me like a real opportunity for NATO countries to do something really good, and strategically useful long-term:
I'm sure there are a lot of problems with this that I'm overlooking, but it seems, to me, in keeping with the sudden unity NATO is showing.
There are two types of wheat; spring wheat and winter wheat. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and then grows in the next spring, while spring wheat is planted in the spring and harvested in the fall. The vast majority of wheat grown in Europe and North America is winter wheat; the exception is in the northern prairie in Canada and down into the Dakotas/Montana, where spring wheat is grown (and is currently being planted; I suspect the spike in prices has led to some shifting in crops here, but someone who normally grows crop A isn't necessarily positioned to grow wheat). Fundamentally, to make this work you need a time machine, and if you have a time machine that can send you back six months and the ear of NATO's leadership, for god's sake don't waste their time with wheat.
posted by Superilla at 5:35 PM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
I'm sure there are a lot of problems with this that I'm overlooking, but it seems, to me, in keeping with the sudden unity NATO is showing.
There are two types of wheat; spring wheat and winter wheat. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, and then grows in the next spring, while spring wheat is planted in the spring and harvested in the fall. The vast majority of wheat grown in Europe and North America is winter wheat; the exception is in the northern prairie in Canada and down into the Dakotas/Montana, where spring wheat is grown (and is currently being planted; I suspect the spike in prices has led to some shifting in crops here, but someone who normally grows crop A isn't necessarily positioned to grow wheat). Fundamentally, to make this work you need a time machine, and if you have a time machine that can send you back six months and the ear of NATO's leadership, for god's sake don't waste their time with wheat.
posted by Superilla at 5:35 PM on March 22, 2022 [11 favorites]
joannemerriam: SIGN PKMKZL
Done. I like this idea, not because it is a time machine, but because it encourages a non-military effort that will leave a nice impression once hostilities end.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:48 PM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
Done. I like this idea, not because it is a time machine, but because it encourages a non-military effort that will leave a nice impression once hostilities end.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:48 PM on March 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
Done. I like this idea, not because it is a time machine, but because it encourages a non-military effort
I don't think the Russians will see it that way. Instead they'd see railcars of food leaving and railcars of stinger missiles returning. Rail is very much a dual use technology, and the gauge difference between EU and soviet-era means a wholescale replacement of rail and rail yards that would further exclude them and impede logistics.
posted by pwnguin at 7:09 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't think the Russians will see it that way. Instead they'd see railcars of food leaving and railcars of stinger missiles returning. Rail is very much a dual use technology, and the gauge difference between EU and soviet-era means a wholescale replacement of rail and rail yards that would further exclude them and impede logistics.
posted by pwnguin at 7:09 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't think the Russians will see it that way. Instead they'd see railcars of food leaving and railcars of stinger missiles returning. [...] would further exclude them and impede logistics.
That train left the station weeks ago. What will Putin do — invade Ukraine?
posted by UN at 7:26 PM on March 22, 2022 [24 favorites]
That train left the station weeks ago. What will Putin do — invade Ukraine?
posted by UN at 7:26 PM on March 22, 2022 [24 favorites]
Ukraine and Moldova disconnected their power grids from Russia and synchronized with the European transmission system four days ago. Not the kind of thing you do lightly.
posted by anthill at 8:04 PM on March 22, 2022 [27 favorites]
posted by anthill at 8:04 PM on March 22, 2022 [27 favorites]
Didn't Poland build an EU gauge track all the way to the UKR border the first week of the war?
posted by ocschwar at 8:16 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 8:16 PM on March 22, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine and Moldova disconnected their power grids from Russia and synchronized with the European transmission system four days ago. Not the kind of thing you do lightly.
FYI, that has been in preparation for years. Ukraine's lines to Russia have been dormant for years and there has been no power traded apart from a minimal amount of transmission across certain lines to keep the grids in sync. In fact the day of the invasion the Ukrainian power grid was preparing to island itself for a year as a proving measure before connecting synchronously to the EU grid. With the war going on and the Russians disconnecting any civilian power infrastructure they can take, both Ukraine and Moldova were connected to the EU grid to make sure any potential Russian aggression could at least not take the whole of either country offline. Zaporizhzhia for instance provides about a ninth of Ukraine's electricity on its own so taking it offline could disrupt an islanded Ukraine. Not anymore thanks to the quick efforts by the EU.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:22 PM on March 22, 2022 [25 favorites]
FYI, that has been in preparation for years. Ukraine's lines to Russia have been dormant for years and there has been no power traded apart from a minimal amount of transmission across certain lines to keep the grids in sync. In fact the day of the invasion the Ukrainian power grid was preparing to island itself for a year as a proving measure before connecting synchronously to the EU grid. With the war going on and the Russians disconnecting any civilian power infrastructure they can take, both Ukraine and Moldova were connected to the EU grid to make sure any potential Russian aggression could at least not take the whole of either country offline. Zaporizhzhia for instance provides about a ninth of Ukraine's electricity on its own so taking it offline could disrupt an islanded Ukraine. Not anymore thanks to the quick efforts by the EU.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:22 PM on March 22, 2022 [25 favorites]
Didn't Poland build an EU gauge track all the way to the UKR border the first week of the war?
Poland rebuilds abandoned rail tracks to Ukraine to help refugees fleeing the war
Poland rebuilds abandoned rail tracks to Ukraine to help refugees fleeing the war
KROŚCIENKO, POLAND - In a remote mountainous province in the southeast tip of Poland, surrounded by snow and bare trees, 11 burly men in orange suits are hard at work.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:28 PM on March 22, 2022 [15 favorites]
They are rushing to rebuild an abandoned rail line first laid more than a century ago that runs through the hills from Ukraine into Poland. They hope it will help ferry refugees escaping Russia's war on Ukraine to safety - but it's laborious work.
That update by the Kyiv Calling band is interesting, but I just didn't like the song. Suffice to say, not my sort of punk.
It did, however, remind me of an EP I have from a Polish band that backed up some friends of mine whose punk band toured Poland back in the 90s (and went back a number of times). Anyway, I really like that EP and haven't listened to it in years and seeing as Poland is in play, I hope it is okay to promote them. So... presenting "Red River from Personal Vertigo by Something Like Elvis".
P.S. I sure hope I'm not pulling a Bragg.
posted by house-goblin at 8:32 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
It did, however, remind me of an EP I have from a Polish band that backed up some friends of mine whose punk band toured Poland back in the 90s (and went back a number of times). Anyway, I really like that EP and haven't listened to it in years and seeing as Poland is in play, I hope it is okay to promote them. So... presenting "Red River from Personal Vertigo by Something Like Elvis".
P.S. I sure hope I'm not pulling a Bragg.
posted by house-goblin at 8:32 PM on March 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
"FYI, that has been in preparation for years. Ukraine's lines to Russia have been dormant for years and there has been no power traded apart from a minimal amount of transmission across certain lines to keep the grids in sync."
Relatedly, China uses standard-gauge railways where it builds new, and has been pressuring Russia to move to standard-gauge rails. The transsiberian railway has a freight train from China to Europe running every 3 minutes; China would really like it if those trains could keep rolling right into Europe without a break-of-gauge. That is obviously an enormous project, but China thinking long-term would like Russia to move towards the standard gauge, instead of Russia pretending it's a world power that can dictate a weird non-standard railroad system. I would not be surprised if China's Belt-and-Road investments in Russia involved rebuilding parts of the transsiberian to be standard-gauge -- like, make it standard-gauge from Vladivostock and Beijing to Irkuskt. Put a big change-of-gauge yard in Irkuskt, which is already a significant industrial city. And then urge the rebuilding to Novosbirsk, to Omst, to Eketerinburg. The deeper into Russia China's investments go, the deeper it can push the standard-gauge railroad.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:36 PM on March 22, 2022 [18 favorites]
Relatedly, China uses standard-gauge railways where it builds new, and has been pressuring Russia to move to standard-gauge rails. The transsiberian railway has a freight train from China to Europe running every 3 minutes; China would really like it if those trains could keep rolling right into Europe without a break-of-gauge. That is obviously an enormous project, but China thinking long-term would like Russia to move towards the standard gauge, instead of Russia pretending it's a world power that can dictate a weird non-standard railroad system. I would not be surprised if China's Belt-and-Road investments in Russia involved rebuilding parts of the transsiberian to be standard-gauge -- like, make it standard-gauge from Vladivostock and Beijing to Irkuskt. Put a big change-of-gauge yard in Irkuskt, which is already a significant industrial city. And then urge the rebuilding to Novosbirsk, to Omst, to Eketerinburg. The deeper into Russia China's investments go, the deeper it can push the standard-gauge railroad.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:36 PM on March 22, 2022 [18 favorites]
West curbs Russia’s access to weather data that some fear could aid attack planning in Ukraine
That is obviously an enormous project
It is, but the southern US managed pretty much the same gauge change in under 48 hours (not counting prep time.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:17 PM on March 22, 2022 [14 favorites]
March 22 (Reuters) - A major supplier of meteorological data from Western and other governments suspended cooperation with Russia on Tuesday, becoming the latest weather-related agency to restrict information sharing in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.Interesting to see the scientific community increasingly making these choices.
Weapons experts said the data - which includes near instantaneous measurements of wind speed and direction, sunlight, precipitation and other factors - could prove crucial in planning a biological or chemical weapons attack in Ukraine.
That is obviously an enormous project
It is, but the southern US managed pretty much the same gauge change in under 48 hours (not counting prep time.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:17 PM on March 22, 2022 [14 favorites]
Or just update ones Variable gauge systems. But those bogies are sorta like front duelies on a Chevy. The importance of gauge rail for trade and passengers is a daunting project for China. Perhaps they could hire Bechtel.
Russia-Ukraine war: humanitarian convoy seized near Mariupol, says Zelenskiy, as he decries ‘constant bombing’ of city.
posted by clavdivs at 9:21 PM on March 22, 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: humanitarian convoy seized near Mariupol, says Zelenskiy, as he decries ‘constant bombing’ of city.
posted by clavdivs at 9:21 PM on March 22, 2022
China would really like it if those trains could keep rolling right into Europe without a break-of-gauge
China would, Russia would, Ukraine would; there's quite a list of states that would like to see that. Even the US and some of the Middle East is mostly okay with it, because it'd take some pressure off the Suez and deny various people the ability to threaten to cut off Eurasian ocean trade.)
Retooling the entire ex-Soviet railway system to standard gauge is very unlikely to happen, though. There's just an immense amount of track in the east that would have to be changed, not much budget to do it, lots of 1520mm rolling stock sitting around that would need to be replaced, and that's without getting into the effect of recent events on any rail connection with Russia. Maybe it will happen in Ukraine in the eventual postwar rebuilding, whenever that happens.
But in the meantime, the more straightforward solution is to extend 1520mm into the major truck transport hubs of Europe, so that cargo can travel reasonably close (within the break-even point for trucks, which is the major mode of transport for freight in W.Eur) to market/use without going over a break in gauge. And the 1520mm track has a higher axle loading than most standard gauge, anyway. (TBH, standard gauge is really too narrow compared to the typical loading gauge of trains, it's just too hard to change now.)
One example of this is the project I mentioned in my earlier comment, the Košice-to-Vienna extension. This would extend an existing 1520mm line that goes from Ukraine into Slovakia (apparently built to serve a really big steel works with Ukranian ore) all the way to Vienna, which is where a lot of cargo could be economically transloaded onto trucks for shipment to market or (in the case of intermediate goods like grain, ore, etc.) to further manufacturing, necessitating repackaging anyway. It's going to be built next to an existing line, I think, so not even any major land acquisition issues.
Since more raw materials are estimated to be flowing from east to west, and bulk cargoes are notoriously expensive to transload (compared to containerized freight, which is presumed to make up more of the finished goods going west-east), it makes sense to bring broad gauge west, allowing bulk cargoes to get closer to market before the gauge break.
Perhaps a desire to aid Ukraine during the war might overcome some of the W. European opposition to 1520mm expansion westward (which, as I understand it, is mostly from German and French railcar and locomotive builders, and some big industrial concerns who don't want eastern competition in their markets at all).
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:44 PM on March 22, 2022 [10 favorites]
China would, Russia would, Ukraine would; there's quite a list of states that would like to see that. Even the US and some of the Middle East is mostly okay with it, because it'd take some pressure off the Suez and deny various people the ability to threaten to cut off Eurasian ocean trade.)
Retooling the entire ex-Soviet railway system to standard gauge is very unlikely to happen, though. There's just an immense amount of track in the east that would have to be changed, not much budget to do it, lots of 1520mm rolling stock sitting around that would need to be replaced, and that's without getting into the effect of recent events on any rail connection with Russia. Maybe it will happen in Ukraine in the eventual postwar rebuilding, whenever that happens.
But in the meantime, the more straightforward solution is to extend 1520mm into the major truck transport hubs of Europe, so that cargo can travel reasonably close (within the break-even point for trucks, which is the major mode of transport for freight in W.Eur) to market/use without going over a break in gauge. And the 1520mm track has a higher axle loading than most standard gauge, anyway. (TBH, standard gauge is really too narrow compared to the typical loading gauge of trains, it's just too hard to change now.)
One example of this is the project I mentioned in my earlier comment, the Košice-to-Vienna extension. This would extend an existing 1520mm line that goes from Ukraine into Slovakia (apparently built to serve a really big steel works with Ukranian ore) all the way to Vienna, which is where a lot of cargo could be economically transloaded onto trucks for shipment to market or (in the case of intermediate goods like grain, ore, etc.) to further manufacturing, necessitating repackaging anyway. It's going to be built next to an existing line, I think, so not even any major land acquisition issues.
Since more raw materials are estimated to be flowing from east to west, and bulk cargoes are notoriously expensive to transload (compared to containerized freight, which is presumed to make up more of the finished goods going west-east), it makes sense to bring broad gauge west, allowing bulk cargoes to get closer to market before the gauge break.
Perhaps a desire to aid Ukraine during the war might overcome some of the W. European opposition to 1520mm expansion westward (which, as I understand it, is mostly from German and French railcar and locomotive builders, and some big industrial concerns who don't want eastern competition in their markets at all).
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:44 PM on March 22, 2022 [10 favorites]
Broad gauge from the Ukrainian border runs pretty deep into Poland. The main throughput issues would be not being electrified, limited supply of broad gauge locomotives and the unloading facilities being focussed on stable bulk and intermodal/containers. But I know a handful of companies in Poland alone that containerise grain and feed because the logistics are so much faster, especially when gauge change is concerned. It's going to be a fun logistics challenge, especially since lately development efforts have been concentrating on improving Małaszewicze on the Belarusian border instead.
Ukrainian grain seems to be going mostly to the Middle East and Africa in general, via Black Sea and Mediterranean. Getting it there from Europe would require whole new logistics chains...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:50 PM on March 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
Ukrainian grain seems to be going mostly to the Middle East and Africa in general, via Black Sea and Mediterranean. Getting it there from Europe would require whole new logistics chains...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:50 PM on March 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
Article from the New Yorker: The Purges in Putin’s Shrinking Inner Circle. A Q&A with "Andrei Soldatov, an investigative journalist and an expert on the Russian state’s intelligence apparatus. Currently in London, Soldatov—along with Irina Borogan—has written “The Compatriots: The Brutal and Chaotic History of Russia’s Exiles, Émigrés, and Agents Abroad”; the pair also founded and edits the Web site Agentura.ru, which reports on Russia’s security services."
posted by jadepearl at 11:25 PM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 11:25 PM on March 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
droomoord, I'v composed a longer comment about Bandera in the other thread with lot of english sources, if you haven't seen it.
Bandera was really a Nazi, and sources minimizing the violence his group inflicted on Jews, Poles an Ukrainians disaggreeing with him are engaging in propaganda. This includes the Atlantic Council as you'll see in the links. You can support national independence without venerating a mass murderer. The support for the Nazi aligned independence movements was a conscious US strategy to counter communism, but this is a derail in this thread. I should make an FPP about this topic in the future.
posted by kmt at 11:30 PM on March 22, 2022 [19 favorites]
Bandera was really a Nazi, and sources minimizing the violence his group inflicted on Jews, Poles an Ukrainians disaggreeing with him are engaging in propaganda. This includes the Atlantic Council as you'll see in the links. You can support national independence without venerating a mass murderer. The support for the Nazi aligned independence movements was a conscious US strategy to counter communism, but this is a derail in this thread. I should make an FPP about this topic in the future.
posted by kmt at 11:30 PM on March 22, 2022 [19 favorites]
An interesting Twitter thread by Kamil Galeev (Wilson Center associate): The minority factor in Russian army is vastly underrated when discussing the course of Ukrainian war.
posted by Harald74 at 2:24 AM on March 23, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 2:24 AM on March 23, 2022 [15 favorites]
When they start to bring the bodies home in April, that will be a reality checkpoint, particularly in the regions. There's got to be a limit to the number of soldiers that can be killed before you start to say that's a war and not a special military operation. For comparison, 15000 Soviet soldiers were killed in the Afghan war, in 9 years. We're reportedly already at comparable numbers after a month. The only issue is if it becomes generally felt that this is a pointless meat-grinder, then what? Nobody losing friends and family to the war is in a position to change anything, almost by definition, as seen in the thread above.
posted by Wrinkled Stumpskin at 4:46 AM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Wrinkled Stumpskin at 4:46 AM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
#KyivDiary Day 28 Vladimir Putin's war is in trouble - John Sweeney
posted by adamvasco at 4:50 AM on March 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by adamvasco at 4:50 AM on March 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Belarus 2023 video on Alexander Vindman's feed matches bartleby's description and has a translation among the replies.
Yes, that's president-elect Tsihanouskaya addressing the European parliament in Strasbourg, but the video doesn't appear on her feed or her allies Viačorka's or Latushka's. The production values are much higher than usual for the "opposition"/government in exile. None of the copies I found on youtube look like the original source or reveal it in their metadata. I too would like to know who produced it.
The report joannemeriam linked above regarding conscripts from the temporarily occupied territories corroborates the ostensible interrogation of impressed Ukrainians from Donetsk Oblast who surrendered in the first days of the invasion. The apparent staggering losses of Russian troops include hundreds if not thousands more rightly counted among the civilian casualties of Putin's military machine.
posted by backwoods at 5:03 AM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
Yes, that's president-elect Tsihanouskaya addressing the European parliament in Strasbourg, but the video doesn't appear on her feed or her allies Viačorka's or Latushka's. The production values are much higher than usual for the "opposition"/government in exile. None of the copies I found on youtube look like the original source or reveal it in their metadata. I too would like to know who produced it.
The report joannemeriam linked above regarding conscripts from the temporarily occupied territories corroborates the ostensible interrogation of impressed Ukrainians from Donetsk Oblast who surrendered in the first days of the invasion. The apparent staggering losses of Russian troops include hundreds if not thousands more rightly counted among the civilian casualties of Putin's military machine.
posted by backwoods at 5:03 AM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
Take into account that the Russians, unlike Western countries, see the railways as military infrastructure because their country is massive and they have many hostile borders rather than just one - i.e. during the cold war all NATO forces in West Germany were already facing towards the only enemy land border so there was no need to move them thousands of km to another border over bad / non-existent roads. In the Russian military mind, extending standard gauge rail into Russia is an invasion corridor.
visited a Russian friend (who lives here) today. He is so ashamed, and obsessed with that shame and the hopelessness. I tried to cheer him up by saying that the West was complicit in breaking instead of building Russia after the Cold War ended, and he would hear NOTHING of it. On reflection I can see how that takes way the agency of the Russian people. He wants to believe they had agency and chose wrongly.
I guess the parallel is this: As a Dutch guy married to an Eastern European Jew, I am comfortable talking about the historical roots of the rise of the Nazis in the treat of Versailles and in the liquidity crisis caused by the later withdrawal of American capital from Germany at a critical time. I wouldn't expect a German to be so mechanical about that because I would understand their need to accept the agency and guilt of their ancestors and in fact it would raise my hackles if I thought they were being too blasé about that.
Newline Magazine: In Kharkiv’s Rubble, Hatred for Russia Is Strong
So many quotes from that excellent piece. It is worth keeping in mind that all the horrors of the war so far have been visited on predominantly Russophone parts of Ukraine. Congratulations, Volodya, you have single-handedly created a unified Ukraine with your actions. Nobody thought it could be done, but great historical genius, Vladimir Putin, has forged a united nation out of white-hot hatred to him.
posted by atrazine at 5:06 AM on March 23, 2022 [22 favorites]
visited a Russian friend (who lives here) today. He is so ashamed, and obsessed with that shame and the hopelessness. I tried to cheer him up by saying that the West was complicit in breaking instead of building Russia after the Cold War ended, and he would hear NOTHING of it. On reflection I can see how that takes way the agency of the Russian people. He wants to believe they had agency and chose wrongly.
I guess the parallel is this: As a Dutch guy married to an Eastern European Jew, I am comfortable talking about the historical roots of the rise of the Nazis in the treat of Versailles and in the liquidity crisis caused by the later withdrawal of American capital from Germany at a critical time. I wouldn't expect a German to be so mechanical about that because I would understand their need to accept the agency and guilt of their ancestors and in fact it would raise my hackles if I thought they were being too blasé about that.
Newline Magazine: In Kharkiv’s Rubble, Hatred for Russia Is Strong
So many quotes from that excellent piece. It is worth keeping in mind that all the horrors of the war so far have been visited on predominantly Russophone parts of Ukraine. Congratulations, Volodya, you have single-handedly created a unified Ukraine with your actions. Nobody thought it could be done, but great historical genius, Vladimir Putin, has forged a united nation out of white-hot hatred to him.
posted by atrazine at 5:06 AM on March 23, 2022 [22 favorites]
The Ukrainian government has launched a website where you can directly donate to fund either humanitarian aid or donate to support the armed forces. An option to donate via crypto is included.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:12 AM on March 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:12 AM on March 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
The BBC has an interview with a woman who was in the Mariupol theatre when it was hit. She had later escaped the the city on foot, walking 50 miles along the cost to Berdyansk.
Analysis cited in the report suggests that the bombing was a precision strike with a single 500lb laser guided bomb. To guide that weapon, a bomber would need to maintain a magnified visual on the target and mark it with a laser.
On the ground on both sides of the building was дети in huge letters. Children.
posted by automatronic at 5:47 AM on March 23, 2022 [27 favorites]
Analysis cited in the report suggests that the bombing was a precision strike with a single 500lb laser guided bomb. To guide that weapon, a bomber would need to maintain a magnified visual on the target and mark it with a laser.
On the ground on both sides of the building was дети in huge letters. Children.
posted by automatronic at 5:47 AM on March 23, 2022 [27 favorites]
Big spying brouhaha in Warsaw this morning. Officially the Russian spy nabbed worked in the Warsaw civil archives (so birth certificates, marriage licences etc), but he got hired by Kaczyński L. and then worked for years as the deputy of current vice-prime minister Sasin. In response our counter-espionage services are pushing to remove 45 out of 60 Russian diplomats currently credentialed in Warsaw (source).
The fun part is that yesterday I saw rumours on Twitter of mysterious smoke over the Russian embassy. As if someone was, say, burning sensitive documents...
(All too early to speculate but dammit Kaczyński J. and his people sure do play into Putin's hands a lot and both Brexit and US 2016 election looked hella like our 2015 election.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:52 AM on March 23, 2022 [22 favorites]
The fun part is that yesterday I saw rumours on Twitter of mysterious smoke over the Russian embassy. As if someone was, say, burning sensitive documents...
(All too early to speculate but dammit Kaczyński J. and his people sure do play into Putin's hands a lot and both Brexit and US 2016 election looked hella like our 2015 election.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:52 AM on March 23, 2022 [22 favorites]
Expected and predictable news: In Russia, prosecutors charge a journalist for 'spreading false information' by reporting the attack on the Mariupol Theatre.
Unexpected but sadly also predictable news: Edinburgh University academic criticised for repeating Russian UN representative's allegations that the attack on the Mariupol Theatre was "fake news" (and doubling down with a 'hear both sides' justification).
Sigh. The Useful Idiots are out again.
posted by Major Clanger at 6:33 AM on March 23, 2022 [9 favorites]
Unexpected but sadly also predictable news: Edinburgh University academic criticised for repeating Russian UN representative's allegations that the attack on the Mariupol Theatre was "fake news" (and doubling down with a 'hear both sides' justification).
Sigh. The Useful Idiots are out again.
posted by Major Clanger at 6:33 AM on March 23, 2022 [9 favorites]
John Sweeney @johnsweeneyroar
#KyivDiary Day 28 Update
The Russian Army is going backwards, east of Kyiv.
Verified.
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko
80% of the Irpin urban territory has been taken back by Ukraine 🇺🇦
10:01 AM · Mar 23, 2022 from Ukraine
/I posted updates from both of these sources yesterday. Today Sweeney says he is standing in an area east of Ukraine that had been under Russian occupation. Ponomarenko works for The Kyiv Independent. I hope this is good news.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:26 AM on March 23, 2022 [14 favorites]
#KyivDiary Day 28 Update
The Russian Army is going backwards, east of Kyiv.
Verified.
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko
80% of the Irpin urban territory has been taken back by Ukraine 🇺🇦
10:01 AM · Mar 23, 2022 from Ukraine
/I posted updates from both of these sources yesterday. Today Sweeney says he is standing in an area east of Ukraine that had been under Russian occupation. Ponomarenko works for The Kyiv Independent. I hope this is good news.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:26 AM on March 23, 2022 [14 favorites]
Thanks to Mefite I claim sanctuary for helping us understand Polish politics--and Kaczynski's surprising but welcome U-turn--a bit better. Here's a NYT article (non-paywalled link) on that subject.
posted by mono blanco at 7:40 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by mono blanco at 7:40 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
Major Clanger, I have this fear that parts of the British establishment would like to align themselves with Russia in this - at least for as long as it doesn't generate hundreds of thousands of refugees. I hope this is all my personal fever dream and your link is not (yet another) potential sign of this.
posted by doggod at 7:51 AM on March 23, 2022
posted by doggod at 7:51 AM on March 23, 2022
doggod, as is often the case with Russia, there is support from opposite ends of the political spectrum. There are elements of he Tory right who have done very nicely out of cosying up to Russian oligarchs and don't want that relationship to be disrupted (or, in some cases, for the kompromat regarding them to come to light. At the same time, there are elements of the hard left who have been reflexively anti-US and anti-NATO since their days as student activists, and in some cases see Putin's Russia as a revival of the good old USSR.
(And there are even a few of the latter who have managed the political journey to the former, seemingly on the basis that if you are going to be an authoritarian tankie, you might as well be a plutocratic authoritarian tankie.)
posted by Major Clanger at 8:03 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
(And there are even a few of the latter who have managed the political journey to the former, seemingly on the basis that if you are going to be an authoritarian tankie, you might as well be a plutocratic authoritarian tankie.)
posted by Major Clanger at 8:03 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
Joe Rogan has apparently decided that this topic needs his input. So of course he’s now talking about corruption in Ukraine and how America and the west shouldn’t involve ourselves. He spent the pandemic spreading Russian vaccine lies and now he’s going with Russian talking points on Ukraine. Apparently $200 million from Spotify isn’t enough to make him stop being a Putin shill.
posted by interogative mood at 8:50 AM on March 23, 2022 [51 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:50 AM on March 23, 2022 [51 favorites]
Least surprising development ever.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 9:34 AM on March 23, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 9:34 AM on March 23, 2022 [19 favorites]
There are elements of he Tory right who have done very nicely out of cosying up to Russian oligarchs and don't want that relationship to be disrupted
Well, yeah. The IMF conditions on Russia when the country needed some economic help immediately after the break-up of the Soviet Union restructured their economy as super lassez-fairs capitalism. Basically what Rumsfeld and co. were trying to do in Iraq, except that in the legalized looting of public capital in Russia, not so many foreign business interests were able to get in on the scam. This economic order became fully entrenched through the extreme gutting of international finance regulations and enforcement that has happened around the world over the past decades since then, which has also helped organized crime (where oligarchs make their money through practices that are still categorized as criminal) and oligarchs in the US, other Western nations, the Saudi royal family, etc. (where the ways they make their money have largely been made legal through de-regulation). Russian oligarchs have the exact same class interests - including an interest in maintaining that general international economic structure + social order - as oligarchs or giant corporations in Western countries, even though they are sometimes in competition with each other within that socio-economic structure.
posted by eviemath at 9:52 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
Well, yeah. The IMF conditions on Russia when the country needed some economic help immediately after the break-up of the Soviet Union restructured their economy as super lassez-fairs capitalism. Basically what Rumsfeld and co. were trying to do in Iraq, except that in the legalized looting of public capital in Russia, not so many foreign business interests were able to get in on the scam. This economic order became fully entrenched through the extreme gutting of international finance regulations and enforcement that has happened around the world over the past decades since then, which has also helped organized crime (where oligarchs make their money through practices that are still categorized as criminal) and oligarchs in the US, other Western nations, the Saudi royal family, etc. (where the ways they make their money have largely been made legal through de-regulation). Russian oligarchs have the exact same class interests - including an interest in maintaining that general international economic structure + social order - as oligarchs or giant corporations in Western countries, even though they are sometimes in competition with each other within that socio-economic structure.
posted by eviemath at 9:52 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
The wife of the British Chancellor of the Exchequer is Akshata Murthy who owns a £500 million stake in the Indian IT consultancy firm Infosys, which operates an office and has one of its delivery centres in Moscow. The company has remained eerily quiet during the conflict. In fact, Infosys – founded by Akshata’s father, the Narendra Modi-supporting billionaire Narayana Murthy – told Private Eye it “does not see any impact on delivery or services” from its Russian operations as a result of sanctions imposed by the British government.
posted by adamvasco at 9:59 AM on March 23, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 9:59 AM on March 23, 2022 [14 favorites]
WSJ News Exclusive | Ukrainian President Asked Biden Not to Sanction Abramovich, to Facilitate Peace Talks
Probably paywalled, the gist is:
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:39 AM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
Probably paywalled, the gist is:
Early this month, officials inside the U.S. Treasury Department drafted a set of sanctions to punish Roman Abramovich, a prominent Russian oligarch, following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, say people familiar with the plans.A spokesperson for Mr. Abramovich declined comment. EU & UK officials said they weren't aware of similar requests to their leaders.
When it came time to announce those sanctions, which had been designed to go out in tandem with sanctions from the U.K. and European Union, the White House’s National Security Council told the Treasury to hold off. The reason: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky advised President Biden in a recent phone call to wait on sanctioning the oligarch, who might prove important as a go-between with Russia in helping to negotiate peace, according to people with knowledge of the call.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:39 AM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
According to the Daily Beast (based on Ukrainian claims), morale amongst some Russian forces is low enough for reports of fragging by tank tread.
“Basically, it’s a shitshow here, I’ll put it that way,” an unnamed soldier near Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine can be heard telling a colleague in a recording released by Ukraine’s Security Service late Tuesday....After telling his friend that Ukrainian forces “tore apart” a column of Russian forces sent along with his own unit, he described complete disarray among the Russian military, with 50 percent of the unit suffering from frostbite on their feet....“But they don’t plan to treat them in the [field] hospital,” he said.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:51 AM on March 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
“Basically, it’s a shitshow here, I’ll put it that way,” an unnamed soldier near Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine can be heard telling a colleague in a recording released by Ukraine’s Security Service late Tuesday....After telling his friend that Ukrainian forces “tore apart” a column of Russian forces sent along with his own unit, he described complete disarray among the Russian military, with 50 percent of the unit suffering from frostbite on their feet....“But they don’t plan to treat them in the [field] hospital,” he said.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:51 AM on March 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
Incidentally, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov have been MIA since March 11, including from Shoigu's prolific social media. Shoigu was listed as participant of a March 18 meeting but no photos from it. There are rumours of heart trouble, but "heart trouble" in Soviet times was often a code word...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:58 AM on March 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:58 AM on March 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
Summary of that call provided by Russian-born cybersecurity exec Dmitri Alperovitch on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:59 AM on March 23, 2022 [31 favorites]
Fascinating claimed intercepted call from Russian officer near Mykolaiv to superiors in Russia. He says:It's -10 C. in Mykolaiv
- This is worse than Chechnya
- 50% of troops have frostbite
- They can’t evacuate the dead
- Don’t have enough tents
- RU plane dropped a bomb on their own position
- One column was hit with Grad rockets. Can’t even figure out if it was friendly fire
- Medics only have bandages. Can’t help with frostbite
- No hot stove
- Digging trenched to sleep in
- Commander of 49th CAA told troops on 4th day that war will be over in hours
- Troops don’t have body armor. When one complained to commander was told “son, be strong”
- This special operation is a “madhouse”
- Being told not to destroy buildings - it’s insanity. Unless we destroy everything and turn into dirt along with the civilians, nothing can happen
- TV says we are moving forward. But we just drive through without clearing up villages. And now we have to defend from all sides because they are attacking everywhere
- They thought this would be like a parade ride
- Our task was to get to Mykolaiv. And we are sitting here
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:59 AM on March 23, 2022 [31 favorites]
Bloomberg: Putin Adviser Chubais Quits Over Ukraine War, Leaves Russia
Russian climate envoy Anatoly Chubais has stepped down and left the country, citing his opposition to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to two people familiar with the situation, becoming the highest-level official to break with the Kremlin over the invasion.posted by snuffleupagus at 11:04 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
Chubais, 66, is one of the few 1990s-era economic reformers who’d remained in Putin’s government and had maintained close ties with Western officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Known as the architect of Russia’s 1990s privatizations, Chubais gave Putin his first Kremlin job in the mid-1990s and initially welcomed his rise to power at the end of that decade. Under Putin, Chubais took top jobs at big state companies until the president named him envoy for sustainable development last year.
Chubais announced his resignation in a letter to colleagues and friends Tuesday, according to people who saw it. Last week, he hinted at a darkened outlook, saying in a post on Facebook on the anniversary of the death of Yegor Gaidar that the fellow economic reformer “understood the strategic risks better than I did and I was wrong.”
Today Reddit quarantined r/GenZedong for rehositing Russian and Chinese state propaganda. It was always tankie sewer but they turned the disinfo and brigading up to 11 when the Ukraine-war went pearshaped.
Reddit also straight-out banned r/Chodi for promoting hatred. That sub was to Hindu ultra-nationalism what r/the_donald was to MAGA-heads.
posted by nathan_teske at 11:38 AM on March 23, 2022 [23 favorites]
Reddit also straight-out banned r/Chodi for promoting hatred. That sub was to Hindu ultra-nationalism what r/the_donald was to MAGA-heads.
posted by nathan_teske at 11:38 AM on March 23, 2022 [23 favorites]
Richard Engel @RichardEngel (nbc)
Ukraine making big gains around kyiv. I got a brief (with an unclassified map) from two top municipal officials
/with a video unclassified map explainer showing the areas recaptured by the Ukrainians. Very good news.
posted by bluesky43 at 11:40 AM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukraine making big gains around kyiv. I got a brief (with an unclassified map) from two top municipal officials
/with a video unclassified map explainer showing the areas recaptured by the Ukrainians. Very good news.
posted by bluesky43 at 11:40 AM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
PBS: U.S. has determined that Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine, Blinken says
His letter, March 23.
posted by vers at 11:45 AM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
His letter, March 23.
posted by vers at 11:45 AM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
Putin Adviser Chubais Quits Over Ukraine War, Leaves RussiaSpat Out Like a (the world's most grateful) Mosquito
posted by Press Butt.on to Check at 11:51 AM on March 23, 2022
posted by Press Butt.on to Check at 11:51 AM on March 23, 2022
Ex-pat Russian journalist describes the media there from the inside.
If you consume only Russia government media, and that is probably true for about 70 percent of Russians now, you wouldn’t even know there’s a war going on. It’s quite absurd watching this coverage. It’s like a parallel reality where you see a news piece about Russian army liberating one Ukrainian town after another. They’re just making this shit up as they go. But not a single news story would mention that there was a war going on in Ukraine.posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:54 AM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
It's Reddit, so take with a tablespoon of salt, but this is an interesting thread with a lot of activity in /r/AskARussian:
Am I coward for not protesting?
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:57 AM on March 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
Am I coward for not protesting?
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:57 AM on March 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
If you consume only Russia government media, and that is probably true for about 70 percent of Russians now, you wouldn’t even know there’s a war going on.
This is a concern. One reason that the “Stabbed in the Back” lie took hold in post-WWI Germany is that the military had been very successful at surprising reporting on the war, and people grabbed at any nonsense to avoid admitting it had been a criminal shitshow for day 1….
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:12 PM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
This is a concern. One reason that the “Stabbed in the Back” lie took hold in post-WWI Germany is that the military had been very successful at surprising reporting on the war, and people grabbed at any nonsense to avoid admitting it had been a criminal shitshow for day 1….
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:12 PM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
TIL “Z,” as it appears plastered on Russian billboards today, isn’t even in the Cyrillic alphabet.
posted by achrise at 12:35 PM on March 23, 2022
posted by achrise at 12:35 PM on March 23, 2022
Russian Central Bank Governor not allowed to resign.
"Russia’s highly regarded central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina sought to resign after Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, only to be told by the president to stay, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions...Some central bank officials describe a state of hopelessness in the weeks since the invasion, feeling trapped in an institution that they fear will have little use for their market-oriented skills and experience as Russia is cut off from the world. At one point, the pace of departures was intense enough that the IT department was short of hands to terminate accounts. Arrows plastered along passageways steered employees through the final bureaucracy on their way out."
posted by storybored at 12:43 PM on March 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
"Russia’s highly regarded central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina sought to resign after Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, only to be told by the president to stay, according to four people with knowledge of the discussions...Some central bank officials describe a state of hopelessness in the weeks since the invasion, feeling trapped in an institution that they fear will have little use for their market-oriented skills and experience as Russia is cut off from the world. At one point, the pace of departures was intense enough that the IT department was short of hands to terminate accounts. Arrows plastered along passageways steered employees through the final bureaucracy on their way out."
posted by storybored at 12:43 PM on March 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
There are elements of he Tory right who have done very nicely out of cosying up to Russian oligarchs and don't want that relationship to be disrupted
No I don't think that's quite right anymore. Realistically, they were very happy to take their money while it had minimal political cost and all they had to do was quietly whisper, "is Crimea, really such a big deal?". You can't buy politicians though, you can only rent them, and now that the association is so toxic that it is clear that there can never be another round of donations or a cushy directorship, those influence networks are permanently burned. They would have preferred to keep things the way they are but having seen that the game is up, politicians are savvy enough to do a hard pivot.
Well, yeah. The IMF conditions on Russia when the country needed some economic help immediately after the break-up of the Soviet Union restructured their economy as super lassez-fairs capitalism. Basically what Rumsfeld and co. were trying to do in Iraq, except that in the legalized looting of public capital in Russia, not so many foreign business interests were able to get in on the scam. This economic order became fully entrenched through the extreme gutting of international finance regulations and enforcement that has happened around the world over the past decades since then, which has also helped organized crime (where oligarchs make their money through practices that are still categorized as criminal) and oligarchs in the US, other Western nations, the Saudi royal family, etc. (where the ways they make their money have largely been made legal through de-regulation). Russian oligarchs have the exact same class interests - including an interest in maintaining that general international economic structure + social order - as oligarchs or giant corporations in Western countries, even though they are sometimes in competition with each other within that socio-economic structure.
I think this is the judgement that everyone made leading up to the war and I think it was wrong. I think we all assumed that Russia was basically a peculiarly pathological and unequal version of the bourgeois dominated societies we all live in.
So Boris Johnson is where he is because he's useful to wealthy people in the UK, Joe Biden is the former senator for the insurance industry, Macron was an investment banker before "suddenly" starting a political party backed by who knows, Trudeau knows what he is and is not permitted to do and Rutte, Merkel (and now the new German government) all basically serve at some remove a class of bourgeois. Sometimes with a quite a thick helping of social democracy, and a little pinch of redistribution to keep the pot boiling over. They probably all believe this stuff and would reject my characterisation, but fundamentally there is a centre-right to centre-left order of accepted space for "normal" politicians and if you go outside of it you get stomped.
The assumption was that Putin is the same kind of thing. Russian oligarchs put him in place in order to run Russia, it's just a little messier than small business owners voting for the CDU/CSU but basically the same kind of gig and so ultimately he will do the economically sensible thing because his bosses, the oligarchs, will make him. I think that a better model is that he thinks of himself as the autocratic Tsar and his oligarchs as service nobility who owe their position and wealth to their roles. So Dmitry Mazepin isn't a rich guy who owns Uralchem in a kind of transferrable freehold way and who has a say in telling Putin what to do because of campaign contributions or something, he's allowed to run a Russian semi-state organisation for his own enrichment, just as long as he kisses the ring and pledges his allegiance.
posted by atrazine at 12:47 PM on March 23, 2022 [33 favorites]
No I don't think that's quite right anymore. Realistically, they were very happy to take their money while it had minimal political cost and all they had to do was quietly whisper, "is Crimea, really such a big deal?". You can't buy politicians though, you can only rent them, and now that the association is so toxic that it is clear that there can never be another round of donations or a cushy directorship, those influence networks are permanently burned. They would have preferred to keep things the way they are but having seen that the game is up, politicians are savvy enough to do a hard pivot.
Well, yeah. The IMF conditions on Russia when the country needed some economic help immediately after the break-up of the Soviet Union restructured their economy as super lassez-fairs capitalism. Basically what Rumsfeld and co. were trying to do in Iraq, except that in the legalized looting of public capital in Russia, not so many foreign business interests were able to get in on the scam. This economic order became fully entrenched through the extreme gutting of international finance regulations and enforcement that has happened around the world over the past decades since then, which has also helped organized crime (where oligarchs make their money through practices that are still categorized as criminal) and oligarchs in the US, other Western nations, the Saudi royal family, etc. (where the ways they make their money have largely been made legal through de-regulation). Russian oligarchs have the exact same class interests - including an interest in maintaining that general international economic structure + social order - as oligarchs or giant corporations in Western countries, even though they are sometimes in competition with each other within that socio-economic structure.
I think this is the judgement that everyone made leading up to the war and I think it was wrong. I think we all assumed that Russia was basically a peculiarly pathological and unequal version of the bourgeois dominated societies we all live in.
So Boris Johnson is where he is because he's useful to wealthy people in the UK, Joe Biden is the former senator for the insurance industry, Macron was an investment banker before "suddenly" starting a political party backed by who knows, Trudeau knows what he is and is not permitted to do and Rutte, Merkel (and now the new German government) all basically serve at some remove a class of bourgeois. Sometimes with a quite a thick helping of social democracy, and a little pinch of redistribution to keep the pot boiling over. They probably all believe this stuff and would reject my characterisation, but fundamentally there is a centre-right to centre-left order of accepted space for "normal" politicians and if you go outside of it you get stomped.
The assumption was that Putin is the same kind of thing. Russian oligarchs put him in place in order to run Russia, it's just a little messier than small business owners voting for the CDU/CSU but basically the same kind of gig and so ultimately he will do the economically sensible thing because his bosses, the oligarchs, will make him. I think that a better model is that he thinks of himself as the autocratic Tsar and his oligarchs as service nobility who owe their position and wealth to their roles. So Dmitry Mazepin isn't a rich guy who owns Uralchem in a kind of transferrable freehold way and who has a say in telling Putin what to do because of campaign contributions or something, he's allowed to run a Russian semi-state organisation for his own enrichment, just as long as he kisses the ring and pledges his allegiance.
posted by atrazine at 12:47 PM on March 23, 2022 [33 favorites]
Fertilizer Prices Break New Records– in Conjunction with Elevated Commodity Prices, Stir Food Security Concerns, Farm Policy News (University of Illinois), Keith Good, March 22, 2022.
(With links to U.S. and international news sources, the author summarizes food supply issues caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Note additional article links at bottom of page.)
posted by cenoxo at 1:43 PM on March 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
(With links to U.S. and international news sources, the author summarizes food supply issues caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Note additional article links at bottom of page.)
posted by cenoxo at 1:43 PM on March 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
So Dmitry Mazepin isn't a rich guy who owns Uralchem in a kind of transferrable freehold way and who has a say in telling Putin what to do because of campaign contributions or something, he's allowed to run a Russian semi-state organisation for his own enrichment, just as long as he kisses the ring and pledges his allegiance.
Is this really news? I think the expectation is more that if the situation gets unpleasant enough, the court could conspire to replace the king. It's not exactly unheard of in the history of kings.
posted by Dysk at 1:44 PM on March 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
Is this really news? I think the expectation is more that if the situation gets unpleasant enough, the court could conspire to replace the king. It's not exactly unheard of in the history of kings.
posted by Dysk at 1:44 PM on March 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
BBC’s Gordon Corera on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:50 PM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
New-Russian Lt. Colonel captured by Ukrainians, a Western official confirms.“In the area in which he was captured, there was a significant amount of electronic warfare equipment. It's unclear whether he was personally connected with that, but it's something we're looking into”There were pictures of a captured command container for an EW system that showed up earlier (today?)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:50 PM on March 23, 2022 [4 favorites]
I don’t think history has ever had the situation of a king sitting in a bunker with his finger on the button. Makes him a lot harder to overthrow.
posted by notoriety public at 1:51 PM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 1:51 PM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I'm not saying the assumptions were right, just that they weren't based in logic or assumptions that are as stupid as presented.
posted by Dysk at 1:52 PM on March 23, 2022
posted by Dysk at 1:52 PM on March 23, 2022
The aforementioned electronic warfare system (a Krasucha-4, for what it's worth) is to be sent to the US for investigation.
That's gotta hurt.
posted by acb at 2:14 PM on March 23, 2022 [16 favorites]
That's gotta hurt.
posted by acb at 2:14 PM on March 23, 2022 [16 favorites]
There is clearly a breaking point somewhere such that oligarchs will have had a enough with Putin. The downside is that many?/most?/all? of the oligarch's wealth is suspect and likely ill-gotten. Pushing Putin out likely hastens the government and institutions of the West to apply more pressure on the oligarchs rather than less. The status quo has to be pretty untenable for an oligarch to make a move...or they are confident that they have enough assets squirreled away such that they can continue to enjoy the high life without attracting too much attention.
posted by mmascolino at 2:17 PM on March 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by mmascolino at 2:17 PM on March 23, 2022 [1 favorite]
An excerpt from the latest entry in Yevgenia Belorusets' war diary [content warning, distressing stuff]:
A few hours ago I spoke on the phone with Elena, an employee at a zoo in Kharkiv. She is the director of a children’s theater, where children perform as actors together with dogs, mice, and rats.posted by Kattullus at 2:21 PM on March 23, 2022 [52 favorites]
The zoo is outside Kharkiv, an area subject to constant onslaught. Time and again employees try to feed and evacuate the animals. But as soon as the Russian army sees cars, bullets begin to fly.
On March 7, Elena tried to reach the zoo one last time in order to bring food to the animals. On the phone she explained to me that many animals remain in their pens. “The deer were shot at. Some of them died. Others managed to escape through the ruined fence into the forest. When we arrived by bus, the shelling started. We ran out of the bus with the feed and made it to the pens. Some great apes had been shot. We ran through the damaged rooms trying to distribute as much of the feed as possible. Then we ran to the bus, but the driver was already dead. We tried to get another car to go back and transport his body to the city. Another colleague was fatally injured. Only one other colleague and I were able to escape.”
She went on to say, “I can’t cry. I can’t even believe it took place. Before my eyes I keep seeing the plastic display window where the monkeys were waiting for us. Many of them were standing there with babies pressed against their bodies. They were hoping for food, but we didn’t manage to feed them that day.” Elena has stopped going to the zoo for the moment, but other staff members are trying to reach the pens so that the animals, the ones still alive anyways, don’t die of hunger.
Kattallus - this is important stuff, and I try to read almost everything you post. But some days, my head and heart are overwhelmed. Can you kindly try to put content warnings on full posts that contain distressing descriptions? I do feel that it my obligation to not turn away from this. But some days, I do not have the strength for the details of the horrors. Kindest thanks.
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:31 PM on March 23, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:31 PM on March 23, 2022 [16 favorites]
Silvery Fish: Can you kindly try to put content warnings on full posts that contain distressing descriptions?
Yeah, you're right, I really should have. I apologize.
Can the mods add a content warning notice at the top of this comment?
posted by Kattullus at 2:34 PM on March 23, 2022 [13 favorites]
Yeah, you're right, I really should have. I apologize.
Can the mods add a content warning notice at the top of this comment?
posted by Kattullus at 2:34 PM on March 23, 2022 [13 favorites]
Ukraine Expected To Get New NATO Aid To Protect Against Weapons Of Mass Destruction – There are fears that Russia may be setting the stage to carry out chemical, biological, or nuclear incidents of some kind., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, March 23, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 2:42 PM on March 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
As Russia's war in Ukraine turns four weeks old, NATO is preparing to hold an extraordinary meeting of member nation heads of state that will focus on matters related to the conflict. The alliance's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said he expects the gathering to result in, among other things, the approval of new military assistance packages for Ukrainian authorities, which will include equipment to help the country defend itself against chemical, biological, and nuclear threats and further help in guarding against cyberattacks.More in the article.
This comes as Russian officials continue to make wholly unsubstantiated claims that Ukrainian forces, possibly with American support, may be preparing to launch attacks involving weapons of mass destruction or stage chemical, biological, or nuclear accidents. This, in turn, has raised fears that Russia's forces may be about to do the same, possibly as part of a false flag operation.
…
The Latest
POSTED: 12:20 PM EST—
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg spoke to reporters earlier today [YT video, 23 Mar 2022], ahead of the extraordinary meeting of member nation heads of state, which is scheduled to take place tomorrow [press release, meeting info/links at Extraordinary Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government, NATO HQ, Brussels, Belgium, 24 Mar. 2022]. In addition to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defensive equipment and cybersecurity assistance for Ukraine, he said he expected the alliance to formally establish four new standing battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, and to step up support for non-members Georgia and Bosnia–Herzegovina.
…
Stoltenberg did not say more on what would specifically be included in the new military aid shipments for Ukraine. He did say that any use of chemical and biological weapons could have "dire consequences" for NATO members, as well as Ukraine, and that the Russian government's "nuclear saber-rattling" was "dangerous" and "irresponsible."…
posted by cenoxo at 2:42 PM on March 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yeah, you're right, I really should have. I apologize.
Thank you. No harm done to my warm regard of you.
posted by Silvery Fish at 3:03 PM on March 23, 2022 [7 favorites]
Thank you. No harm done to my warm regard of you.
posted by Silvery Fish at 3:03 PM on March 23, 2022 [7 favorites]
Mod note: Can the mods add a content warning notice at the top of this comment?
Done.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:06 PM on March 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
Done.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:06 PM on March 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
The Russians have destroyed a brand new nuclear lab at Chernobyl built at a cost of 6 million euros with support from the European Commission for the purpose of improving management of radioactive waste.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 3:26 PM on March 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 3:26 PM on March 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
There were pictures of a captured command container for an EW system that showed up earlier…
More about this equipment (with photos) at: Ukraine Just Captured Part Of One Of Russia's Most Capable Electronic Warfare Systems, Russia's lost Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system command module would be a prize for foreign intelligence agencies., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, March 22, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 3:26 PM on March 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
More about this equipment (with photos) at: Ukraine Just Captured Part Of One Of Russia's Most Capable Electronic Warfare Systems, Russia's lost Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system command module would be a prize for foreign intelligence agencies., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, March 22, 2022:
A curious 'container' that Ukrainian troops captured today looks to actually represent a significant Russian loss and a potential intelligence goldmine. What Ukraine's forces found looks to be a containerized command post that is part of the Krasukha-4 mobile electronic warfare system. The Krasukha-4 is primarily designed to detect and jam large radars, such as those on airborne early warning and control aircraft, such as the U.S. Air Force's E-3 Sentry, and spy satellites.More in the article. Wouldn’t an advanced EW field unit like this have self-destruct capability? Why would its operators (apparently) walk away from it?
Ukrainian forces reportedly found this command post container outside of the capital Kyiv….
… the loss of even one-half of a Krasukha-4 system could be significant for Russian forces from an operational perspective. Though its origins trace back to the late 1990s, this remains one of the Russian military's most capable mobile EW systems, with serial production only beginning in the early 2010s. It was developed as part of a larger project to field systems to shield Russian assets on the ground and in the air from the prying eyes of various ground-based and aerial surveillance and imaging radars, along with certain radar-equipped intelligence-gathering satellites….
posted by cenoxo at 3:26 PM on March 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
Three stories from CNN about the Russian military.
Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow. Excerpt:
Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow. Excerpt:
As the meeting was breaking up, one US defense attaché "casually inquired" about [Major General] Ilyin's family roots in Ukraine, and the Russian general's "stoic demeanor suddenly became flushed and agitated," according to the readout. The Americans reported Ilyin responded "yes," and said that he was born in Dnipropetrovsk before moving with his family moving to Donetsk, where he went to school.Who is Russia's top field commander in Ukraine? The US isn't sure. Excerpt:
But the US officials reported Ilyin then added that the current situation in Ukraine is "tragic and I am very depressed over it" -- and then he walked out without shaking hands, according to the readout.
It's unclear why the meeting was held or the circumstances behind it. CNN does not know if there's additional documentation describing the meeting. The readout does not include the names of the American attachés in the meeting, and CNN has been unable to learn their identities. The Pentagon and State Department declined to comment. CNN has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.
"One of the principles of war is 'unity of command,' said CNN military analyst retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a former commander of the US Army in Europe. "That means someone has to be in overall charge— to coordinate fires, direct logistics, commit reserve forces, measure the success (and failure) of different 'wings' of the operation and adjust actions based on that."[Content Warning: Photographs of deceased people] The bodies of Russian soldiers are piling up in Ukraine, as Kremlin conceals true toll of war. Excerpt:
Historically, there have been instances in which Russia has publicized this kind of information, but the Ministry of Defense has not made any reference to a top commander for operations in Ukraine and did not respond to CNN's request for comment on the topic.
And while it is possible that Russia has quietly designated a top commander to oversee the invasion — even if the US has been unable to identify that individual — the state of combat operations would suggest "he's inept," according to Hertling.
On the same day, Ukrzaliznytsia, the state-owned Ukrainian Railways, said in a statement on its website that it had provided Ukraine's armed forces with 20 refrigerated cars for the removal of dead Russian soldiers from several areas, including Odesa. Just 72 hours later, Ukrzaliznytsia's chairman posted a message on his personal Telegram channel saying that Russia never came to load them. "For the sake of 'victorious' propaganda, they are ready to deprive mothers of even the opportunity to bury the bodies," Oleksandr Kamyshin wrote.posted by Kattullus at 3:35 PM on March 23, 2022 [10 favorites]
Ukraine's government said it is still waiting to receive a request from Russian authorities for the repatriation of the bodies of those killed. The Ukrainian deputy prime minister said the issue of collecting and identifying the bodies had been discussed in a meeting between Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer, on Thursday. But the ICRC has not confirmed whether it is assisting Ukraine in the return of Russian remains to their home country, which is provided for under international law.
The assumption was that Putin is the same kind of thing.
Ah, I was unclear. Putin is not the servant of capitalists in Russia. He is an oligarch himself. That doesn’t change my comment in any way.
posted by eviemath at 3:37 PM on March 23, 2022
Ah, I was unclear. Putin is not the servant of capitalists in Russia. He is an oligarch himself. That doesn’t change my comment in any way.
posted by eviemath at 3:37 PM on March 23, 2022
More in the article. Wouldn’t an advanced EW field unit like this have self-destruct capability? Why would its operators (apparently) walk away from it?
This is presumably the less sensitive part of the system--basically a containerized field outpost connected to trailers with the more serious radio gear on it. Not good to lose it, but potentially not a total disaster -- especially if the abandoned support equipment was largely off the shelf (like rackmount servers) and wiped of data and/or busted up. (Some pieces of it are visibly gone, but who knows when that happened.)
So maybe it's the part you leave behind in a pinch, and it's someone else's problem to bomb the position to cover your withdrawal, if it's deemed important enough. (Which is to say, maybe they weren't exactly walking.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:51 PM on March 23, 2022
This is presumably the less sensitive part of the system--basically a containerized field outpost connected to trailers with the more serious radio gear on it. Not good to lose it, but potentially not a total disaster -- especially if the abandoned support equipment was largely off the shelf (like rackmount servers) and wiped of data and/or busted up. (Some pieces of it are visibly gone, but who knows when that happened.)
So maybe it's the part you leave behind in a pinch, and it's someone else's problem to bomb the position to cover your withdrawal, if it's deemed important enough. (Which is to say, maybe they weren't exactly walking.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:51 PM on March 23, 2022
The latest ISW's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23 around Kyiv shows some land being successfully taken by Ukraine, backing up earlier claims. But also this nugget:
posted by meowzilla at 4:13 PM on March 23, 2022 [8 favorites]
... more reports emerging of Russian troops digging in and laying mines—indications that they have gone over to the defensive.This means that instead of stopping a disorganized/hasty invasion, Ukraine now must attack prepared defenses with the attacker's disadvantage.
posted by meowzilla at 4:13 PM on March 23, 2022 [8 favorites]
The downside is that many?/most?/all? of the oligarch's wealth is suspect and likely ill-gotten.
I think there are fewer differences between Western capitalism and Russian capitalism than we perhaps would like to believe. But we should probably make a new thread for this sub-discussion.
posted by eviemath at 4:13 PM on March 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
I think there are fewer differences between Western capitalism and Russian capitalism than we perhaps would like to believe. But we should probably make a new thread for this sub-discussion.
posted by eviemath at 4:13 PM on March 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
This means that instead of stopping a disorganized/hasty invasion, Ukraine now must attack prepared defenses with the attacker's disadvantage.
If they want to evict them in the short term. But a dug in invading army can also be besieged and bled out in the same way city defenders are, and will suffer their own attrition (especially if their supply lines are easily harassed). With the difference being the dug-in invading troops are well aware that in the simplest terms they could just as well go home at any time as sit there to starve and be shelled.
Also, Covid. Not ideal for a return to WWI style stalemate.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:35 PM on March 23, 2022 [20 favorites]
If they want to evict them in the short term. But a dug in invading army can also be besieged and bled out in the same way city defenders are, and will suffer their own attrition (especially if their supply lines are easily harassed). With the difference being the dug-in invading troops are well aware that in the simplest terms they could just as well go home at any time as sit there to starve and be shelled.
Also, Covid. Not ideal for a return to WWI style stalemate.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:35 PM on March 23, 2022 [20 favorites]
NYT video essay crossreferencing Russian radio chatter with (CW:) battle footage fragments to knit together the story of the battle for Makariv.
Confirmation of war crimes in deliberate civilian targeting; Russian use of unencrypted comms; Russian logistical and communication weaknesses.
posted by storybored at 5:15 PM on March 23, 2022 [14 favorites]
Confirmation of war crimes in deliberate civilian targeting; Russian use of unencrypted comms; Russian logistical and communication weaknesses.
posted by storybored at 5:15 PM on March 23, 2022 [14 favorites]
U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons [NY Times]
Archive.org link
posted by MrVisible at 6:19 PM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
Archive.org link
posted by MrVisible at 6:19 PM on March 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons
posted by tclark at 6:40 PM on March 23, 2022 [16 favorites]
The current team was established in a memo signed by Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, on Feb. 28, four days after the invasion began, according to the officials involved in the process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive planning. A previous iteration had worked for months, behind the scenes, to prepare the U.S. government for the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.I think the results of that previous Tiger Team speak for themselves -- while I have issues with some of the details of the US and European responses to the invasion, all of the nations involved have cooperated better and achieved more than I would have expected. Much more. I think they got the right people in the room.
That team played a central role in devising the playbooks of deep sanctions, troop buildups in NATO nations and arming the Ukrainian military, which have exploited Russian weaknesses and put its government and economy under tremendous pressure.
posted by tclark at 6:40 PM on March 23, 2022 [16 favorites]
The Sitskriege appears to continue:
VOA's Carla Babb on Twitter
VOA's Carla Babb on Twitter
Sr. US Defense official says no indications that #Belarus military is preparing to join the fight in #Ukraine #RussianUkrainianWarposted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:46 PM on March 23, 2022 [6 favorites]
Understanding Putin’s Nuclear Decision-Making, War On The Rocks, Kristin Ven Bruusgaard*, March 22, 2022:
*Kristin Ven Bruusgaard (bio) is a postdoctoral fellow/assistant professor of political science at the University of Oslo, where she is a part of the Oslo Nuclear Project. She has researched and analyzed Russian security and defense policy in government and academia for the past 15 years.
posted by cenoxo at 9:34 PM on March 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
The Ukraine invasion has instigated a soul-searching of conventional wisdom about international politics, about the use of force in the modern era, and about Russian strategy. If Putin could launch a full-scale invasion of a sovereign country in modern-day Europe, he could do anything, goes the mantra.Details in the article.
Nuclear saber-rattling has produced significant concern that the Russian president would also consider crossing the nuclear threshold. With fighting around Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, Europe is bracing for a potential nuclear catastrophe. Norwegian authorities recently notified all families to keep a stock of iodine at home for children and people under 40 in case of a nuclear incident. Potential nuclear war is the topic of daily news shows and podcasts across the transatlantic region.
…
So, what is the situation now? Is there a debate in Moscow about the role of nuclear weapons in the ongoing conflict? Is Putin debating the nuclear taboo in splendid isolation? Although Western policymakers describe Russian nuclear signaling in the ongoing crisis as reckless, Russian actions so far closely follow what Russia has conveyed regarding the role of nuclear weapons in a conflict like Ukraine: deterring it from escalating to a larger war.
The nuclear activity we have seen thus far suggests that Putin is not the sole decision-maker impacting nuclear movements. In other words, it may be premature to throw what we know about the Russian nuclear playbook out the window. Although we cannot predict whether that playbook will remain valid, it is useful to revisit nuclear decision-making in Russia and how it could impact Putin’s nuclear choices….
*Kristin Ven Bruusgaard (bio) is a postdoctoral fellow/assistant professor of political science at the University of Oslo, where she is a part of the Oslo Nuclear Project. She has researched and analyzed Russian security and defense policy in government and academia for the past 15 years.
posted by cenoxo at 9:34 PM on March 23, 2022 [11 favorites]
Under "Ukrainians fighting back", the port of Berdyansk was captured by Russians on day 3 of the war and is now on fire with Ukrainian Defense Ministry saying they've blown up the Russian landing ship Orsk which docked there three days ago, probably in preparation for sea-side attack on nearby Mariupol. Unsure if sabotage at the port, aerial assault or an action by the remaining Ukrainian navy, but either way a big sign that the Russian-occupied territories are nowhere near secure.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:32 AM on March 24, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:32 AM on March 24, 2022 [15 favorites]
Twitter thread on the ethnic composition of the Russian army. TLDR: the boots on the ground mostly aren't ethnic Russians and come from regions quite far away from Ukraine.
posted by meowzilla at 1:46 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 1:46 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Sr. US Defense official says no indications that #Belarus military is preparing to join the fight in #Ukraine
My guess is that every time Putin pushed for Belarusian troops to join the invasion (which he has since the outset), he got pushback informing him that Lukashenko's grip on power is too tenuous and doing so would risk his regime collapsing.
posted by acb at 2:09 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
My guess is that every time Putin pushed for Belarusian troops to join the invasion (which he has since the outset), he got pushback informing him that Lukashenko's grip on power is too tenuous and doing so would risk his regime collapsing.
posted by acb at 2:09 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russia Has Already Lost – There is no clear path to a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine. It could win every future battle, but it has already lost., Tyler Rogoway, The War Zone, March 23, 2022:
Let’s hope a cornered Putin agrees and withdraws Russian forces without further military escalation, nuclear or otherwise. If not, the real question may then be: Will anyone win?
posted by cenoxo at 2:25 AM on March 24, 2022 [11 favorites]
We are at the one-month mark into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and it looks like things are only set to get bloodier. Short of a sudden ceasefire and a robust peace deal, which some would argue seems less feasible with each passing day, the war will grind on. But regardless of if Russia achieves its military objectives in the country, it has already lost in nearly every conceivable way. What's worse is what awaits them if they succeed in conquering Ukraine's territory — an insurgency the likes of which we have never seen. It will be one funded by the richest nations on earth and run by hardened fighters in a country absolutely awash with advanced anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry. This, combined with a whole slew of other factors I detailed over three weeks ago — which are more relevant now than they were then — results in the conclusion that there is no conceivable path to a positive outcome to this conflict for Russia. It can win any battle and seize any city, but the reality is that the country has already lost….Much more in the article.
Let’s hope a cornered Putin agrees and withdraws Russian forces without further military escalation, nuclear or otherwise. If not, the real question may then be: Will anyone win?
posted by cenoxo at 2:25 AM on March 24, 2022 [11 favorites]
The Extraordinary Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government is now underway at NATO HQ, Brussels, Belgium: here’s a list of today’s events with recorded/streaming video links and other media.
posted by cenoxo at 2:38 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by cenoxo at 2:38 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Last night at work I had a weird experience. A colleague began on a wild rant trying to convince us that the fascist Ukrainian government have been killing innocent Russians in Donbas and Crimea for a decade, in a true crime against humanity. It was so weird I thought of writing an ask about it, but now I'll just wait and see how it develops.
But it got me thinking about something I am discussing with several friends who are asking me why the West reacts so differently to the Ukraine situation compared to (for instance) Syria. And it struck me than apart from a lot of other arguments I and others have posted above and in the previous threads, there is a very important one, that I haven't seen up so much: Ukraine's government is a legitimate, democratically elected government. There is literally a clear and simple address to send your support to: the legitimate government. It does not diminish the legitimacy of that government that Zelensky was unpopular previous to the war, or that he was voted in on a mandate to hold peace talks with Russia, contrariwise, that is exactly how democratic leadership works.
Back when some western powers and right-wing activists supported the Afghan resistance against the Soviet invasion, they ending up supporting the Islamification proces that led to the Taliban. Supporting partisan groups worked to some extent during WWII, but in reality there were a lot of shady actors back then already.
I don't know why I didn't articulate this before, but now I did, and maybe some of you have similar leftist friends to mine and can use this line of thought.
posted by mumimor at 5:56 AM on March 24, 2022 [37 favorites]
But it got me thinking about something I am discussing with several friends who are asking me why the West reacts so differently to the Ukraine situation compared to (for instance) Syria. And it struck me than apart from a lot of other arguments I and others have posted above and in the previous threads, there is a very important one, that I haven't seen up so much: Ukraine's government is a legitimate, democratically elected government. There is literally a clear and simple address to send your support to: the legitimate government. It does not diminish the legitimacy of that government that Zelensky was unpopular previous to the war, or that he was voted in on a mandate to hold peace talks with Russia, contrariwise, that is exactly how democratic leadership works.
Back when some western powers and right-wing activists supported the Afghan resistance against the Soviet invasion, they ending up supporting the Islamification proces that led to the Taliban. Supporting partisan groups worked to some extent during WWII, but in reality there were a lot of shady actors back then already.
I don't know why I didn't articulate this before, but now I did, and maybe some of you have similar leftist friends to mine and can use this line of thought.
posted by mumimor at 5:56 AM on March 24, 2022 [37 favorites]
(Side note: If your social group includes people who remember some of the democratic governments that the US helped overthrow during the Cold War, that will probably be a less effective argument than you anticipate.)
posted by eviemath at 6:08 AM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 6:08 AM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
Looks like the Ukrainians managed to hit some more Russian warships. These are used for amphibious landings.
posted by interogative mood at 6:12 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:12 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Side note: If your social group includes people who remember some of the democratic governments that the US helped overthrow during the Cold War, that will probably be a less
effective argument than you anticipate
And to those people I'd say... So????
We're not asking for absolution or to declare that the US can't do no wrong. The ask is for support to a legitimately elected government who's clearly asking for help to defends itself. A country who's being invaded *at this moment* and not only is it being invaded, but the invaders are a bunch of sore losers that have started targeting civilians.
If someone can't see we need to do something about this, we can put them on the phone with those kids who'll never see their parents again and they can explain why the US shouldn't act because some shit the CIA did in the 70s.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 6:41 AM on March 24, 2022 [45 favorites]
effective argument than you anticipate
And to those people I'd say... So????
We're not asking for absolution or to declare that the US can't do no wrong. The ask is for support to a legitimately elected government who's clearly asking for help to defends itself. A country who's being invaded *at this moment* and not only is it being invaded, but the invaders are a bunch of sore losers that have started targeting civilians.
If someone can't see we need to do something about this, we can put them on the phone with those kids who'll never see their parents again and they can explain why the US shouldn't act because some shit the CIA did in the 70s.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 6:41 AM on March 24, 2022 [45 favorites]
Just because the US does something wrong does not mean it's wrong to do the right thing now.
That's true of every country and every person.
This stuff about "The US is to blame for all this so we should just stay out of it!" is just utter nonsense. Seems more like a sunk cost fallacy.
The only utility is assigning blame is in how it informs solutions going forward.
An action the US government (or anyone else) is considering taking can either be helpful or not helpful. Whether or not the US Government shares any blame is completely and utterly irrelevant.
It would be like saying that Putin and his supporters are to blame for of all this (which, with the invading army and all has some merit) so they should just stay out of it. So, if Putin were willing to withdraw his troops he should...just stay out of it instead? That's more extreme but the same logic seems to be getting applied to the US.
If there is something the US can do that will help, we should do it, full stop.
posted by VTX at 6:52 AM on March 24, 2022 [11 favorites]
That's true of every country and every person.
This stuff about "The US is to blame for all this so we should just stay out of it!" is just utter nonsense. Seems more like a sunk cost fallacy.
The only utility is assigning blame is in how it informs solutions going forward.
An action the US government (or anyone else) is considering taking can either be helpful or not helpful. Whether or not the US Government shares any blame is completely and utterly irrelevant.
It would be like saying that Putin and his supporters are to blame for of all this (which, with the invading army and all has some merit) so they should just stay out of it. So, if Putin were willing to withdraw his troops he should...just stay out of it instead? That's more extreme but the same logic seems to be getting applied to the US.
If there is something the US can do that will help, we should do it, full stop.
posted by VTX at 6:52 AM on March 24, 2022 [11 favorites]
Not sure if this has been posted previously.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian women have taken up arms during the war sparked by Russia’s invasion. According to media reports, women constitute as much as 15% to 17% of the Ukrainian fighting force.
posted by adamvasco at 6:55 AM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
Tens of thousands of Ukrainian women have taken up arms during the war sparked by Russia’s invasion. According to media reports, women constitute as much as 15% to 17% of the Ukrainian fighting force.
posted by adamvasco at 6:55 AM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
That feels a bit lower than average. After all, women have always fought.
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 7:01 AM on March 24, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 7:01 AM on March 24, 2022 [8 favorites]
Business Insider: Fallout from a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine could drift into NATO countries and be considered an attack, says head of US Senate Armed Services Committee
That's Jack Reed (D-RI).
That's Jack Reed (D-RI).
Reed's statements echoed the words of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who said on the same day that the use of chemical weapons or biological weapons in Ukraine "may also have dire consequences for NATO Allied countries" and their peoples.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:13 AM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
Jens Stoltenberg has accepted to serve an extended term as NATO general secretary until 30. September 2023. He had previously lined up a job as head of the Norwegian National Bank, which he has now declined. (For those of you following Norwegian finance news, the person getting the job is Ida Wolden Bache, who has served as a temporary head for a few weeks already. She will be the first woman in the role.)
posted by Harald74 at 7:18 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:18 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
[Transcript of the] Statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the extraordinary Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government, March 24, 2022 (as delivered). Scroll down for audio recordings (in English, French, Ukrainian, Russian) of the subsequent press conference.
posted by cenoxo at 7:55 AM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by cenoxo at 7:55 AM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
YouTube video of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s press conference, March 24, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 8:26 AM on March 24, 2022
posted by cenoxo at 8:26 AM on March 24, 2022
If there is something the US can do that will help, we should do it, full stop.
I suspect that might be part of the issue; based on where I've talked with people along the anti-imperial leftist gradient; first-off they're *very* not a fan of Russia (just to preemptively distinguish here), but they can readily point to all the previous times US aid has turned out to come with a lot more regime-change/assassination/etc. on the side of those we're claiming to help. Similarly, it's tricky to distinguish "yes, we've repeatedly claimed that this time military involvement is warranted & just, but this time we mean it".
Refugee aid is pretty clear-cut, but given our track record of military involvement, do we have a good way to assure "this time it'll be different, no empire-building, no building a shadow government, etc."?
There's also a lot of concern with what we saw previously about racism in refugee treatment, reports of militia targeting Roma civilians under claims of "organized looting", shutting down left political parties with claims of "ties to Russia", etc. (and, to reiterate, much more vehemence about Russian war crimes & the violence being inflicted, I'm not trying to paint a picture of people who are downplaying Russia's actions)
Like a lot of things, it seems to be ultimately a concern of "Ok, if we could make sure good aid got to good people, that'd be fantastic. But we may be offering a crossroads deal, & some portion is likely to get redirected to bad causes. Can we make it worth it?"
posted by CrystalDave at 9:05 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
I suspect that might be part of the issue; based on where I've talked with people along the anti-imperial leftist gradient; first-off they're *very* not a fan of Russia (just to preemptively distinguish here), but they can readily point to all the previous times US aid has turned out to come with a lot more regime-change/assassination/etc. on the side of those we're claiming to help. Similarly, it's tricky to distinguish "yes, we've repeatedly claimed that this time military involvement is warranted & just, but this time we mean it".
Refugee aid is pretty clear-cut, but given our track record of military involvement, do we have a good way to assure "this time it'll be different, no empire-building, no building a shadow government, etc."?
There's also a lot of concern with what we saw previously about racism in refugee treatment, reports of militia targeting Roma civilians under claims of "organized looting", shutting down left political parties with claims of "ties to Russia", etc. (and, to reiterate, much more vehemence about Russian war crimes & the violence being inflicted, I'm not trying to paint a picture of people who are downplaying Russia's actions)
Like a lot of things, it seems to be ultimately a concern of "Ok, if we could make sure good aid got to good people, that'd be fantastic. But we may be offering a crossroads deal, & some portion is likely to get redirected to bad causes. Can we make it worth it?"
posted by CrystalDave at 9:05 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
And to those people I'd say... So????
In the context of whether or not we should care about Ukraine, it has zero relevance.
In the context of mumimor’s proposal for an argument they had thought up to counter specific Russian propaganda taking points that their co-worker was spouting, it means that mumimor’s argument is unlikely to be at all convincing their interlocutors. Someone who is already sold on Russian propaganda about supposed “de-Nazification” of Ukraine is (a) not going to believe in the first place that Zelenskyy’s election was above-board and fully democratic as opposed to tainted by corruption, and (b) yes, we know that bringing up “but the US” or “but NATO” is a form of Western-centrism, but the person who is already sold on Russian propaganda is going to bring it up as a counter, specifically in the context of (a), as purported evidence that Russia is on the side of democracy in Ukraine. Yes, that is flat out wrong. Yes, it is frustrating that you often can’t counter propaganda and disinformation with actual, factually correct information. But that’s what will happen if mumimor tries to use the argument they outlined against their co-worker’s claims.
posted by eviemath at 9:38 AM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
In the context of whether or not we should care about Ukraine, it has zero relevance.
In the context of mumimor’s proposal for an argument they had thought up to counter specific Russian propaganda taking points that their co-worker was spouting, it means that mumimor’s argument is unlikely to be at all convincing their interlocutors. Someone who is already sold on Russian propaganda about supposed “de-Nazification” of Ukraine is (a) not going to believe in the first place that Zelenskyy’s election was above-board and fully democratic as opposed to tainted by corruption, and (b) yes, we know that bringing up “but the US” or “but NATO” is a form of Western-centrism, but the person who is already sold on Russian propaganda is going to bring it up as a counter, specifically in the context of (a), as purported evidence that Russia is on the side of democracy in Ukraine. Yes, that is flat out wrong. Yes, it is frustrating that you often can’t counter propaganda and disinformation with actual, factually correct information. But that’s what will happen if mumimor tries to use the argument they outlined against their co-worker’s claims.
posted by eviemath at 9:38 AM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
In the context of mumimor’s proposal for an argument they had thought up to counter specific Russian propaganda taking points that their co-worker was spouting, it means that mumimor’s argument is unlikely to be at all convincing their interlocutors. Someone who is already sold on Russian propaganda about supposed “de-Nazification” of Ukraine is (a) not going to believe in the first place that Zelenskyy’s election was above-board and fully democratic as opposed to tainted by corruption, and (b) yes, we know that bringing up “but the US” or “but NATO” is a form of Western-centrism, but the person who is already sold on Russian propaganda is going to bring it up as a counter, specifically in the context of (a), as purported evidence that Russia is on the side of democracy in Ukraine. Yes, that is flat out wrong. Yes, it is frustrating that you often can’t counter propaganda and disinformation with actual, factually correct information. But that’s what will happen if mumimor tries to use the argument they outlined against their co-worker’s claims.
If somebody is koolaiding the Russian propaganda I don't think you'll convince them, I agree with you on that.
It was more about those people, who have no strong opinion on Russia, but have a very high distrust of the US and will form their opinion on that distrust.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:50 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
If somebody is koolaiding the Russian propaganda I don't think you'll convince them, I agree with you on that.
It was more about those people, who have no strong opinion on Russia, but have a very high distrust of the US and will form their opinion on that distrust.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:50 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
Like a lot of things, it seems to be ultimately a concern of "Ok, if we could make sure good aid got to good people, that'd be fantastic. But we may be offering a crossroads deal, & some portion is likely to get redirected to bad causes. Can we make it worth it?"
Of course, that's the same argument that the American Right uses to try to shut down any and all welfare programs: some of the money might get spent on drugs, or go to undeserving people, so we should either cut it entirely or enact onerous conditions to receive it. The left is perfectly able to see why welfare programs are still a good idea and that those arguments are BS.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:51 AM on March 24, 2022 [14 favorites]
Of course, that's the same argument that the American Right uses to try to shut down any and all welfare programs: some of the money might get spent on drugs, or go to undeserving people, so we should either cut it entirely or enact onerous conditions to receive it. The left is perfectly able to see why welfare programs are still a good idea and that those arguments are BS.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:51 AM on March 24, 2022 [14 favorites]
US will accept up to 100K Ukrainian refugees
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:56 AM on March 24, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:56 AM on March 24, 2022 [13 favorites]
Reminder that this should not be all about the USA, let's try and do better.
posted by rikschell at 10:09 AM on March 24, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 10:09 AM on March 24, 2022 [26 favorites]
Eurasianet: Rising Georgian backlash to Russian influx
This anti-Russian sentiment has exploded in recent days, including among many ostensible Georgian liberals. It is thus far, however, mostly confined to social media. There are reports of Georgian landlords and Airbnb hosts denying would-be Russian tenants, and Russian expat social media and Telegram groups have reports of sporadic interpersonal conflicts.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:12 AM on March 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
But as more Russians flood into Georgia – more than 20,000 in recent days alone, the government has said – the prospect for more social tension appears strong.
It was more about those people, who have no strong opinion on Russia, but have a very high distrust of the US and will form their opinion on that distrust.
Like many of us here, I am friends with a lot of left-aligned people of various stripes (insert anarchist catgirl joke here) and while the ongoing whataboutism in the face of the worse and worse reporting coming out of the war zone is frustrating it is also true that it is of little to no immediate impact on the situation. It's all a lot of noise, less heat, and no light. (And likewise those who are choosing to pointedly ignore it, as though turnabout for ignored conflicts in the global south is somehow fair play or moral.)
The only people they are convincing are each other, within their established circles; and if anything the knee-jerk reaction that the US is a priori on wrong side of any post-colonial imperialist confrontation, no matter what or who else is involved, is pushing less absurd people around them to re-examine their affiliations.
My bigger concern is what the ongoing shitshow from that sector of the political compass meme will mean for unity on other issues that left or progressive people mostly do agree about, and around which we were maybe even seeing some strength gathering in recent years.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:29 AM on March 24, 2022 [14 favorites]
Like many of us here, I am friends with a lot of left-aligned people of various stripes (insert anarchist catgirl joke here) and while the ongoing whataboutism in the face of the worse and worse reporting coming out of the war zone is frustrating it is also true that it is of little to no immediate impact on the situation. It's all a lot of noise, less heat, and no light. (And likewise those who are choosing to pointedly ignore it, as though turnabout for ignored conflicts in the global south is somehow fair play or moral.)
The only people they are convincing are each other, within their established circles; and if anything the knee-jerk reaction that the US is a priori on wrong side of any post-colonial imperialist confrontation, no matter what or who else is involved, is pushing less absurd people around them to re-examine their affiliations.
My bigger concern is what the ongoing shitshow from that sector of the political compass meme will mean for unity on other issues that left or progressive people mostly do agree about, and around which we were maybe even seeing some strength gathering in recent years.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:29 AM on March 24, 2022 [14 favorites]
rikschell, what would doing better consist of?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 10:40 AM on March 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 10:40 AM on March 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
yes, let's not make this about the US
but if you do live in N. America and watch network news, you are seeing a lot of talking heads saying those four words again "weapons of mass destruction" and it makes a person a little sick. we are living through history and (recent) history is living with us, and those four words led to many deaths of many innocents and it's a fucking crime but here we are. it is far too horrendous to make the "cry wolf" analogy but if we are hoping for a better future we have to hold our elected representatives accountable. this is exactly why lies matter.
posted by elkevelvet at 10:41 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
but if you do live in N. America and watch network news, you are seeing a lot of talking heads saying those four words again "weapons of mass destruction" and it makes a person a little sick. we are living through history and (recent) history is living with us, and those four words led to many deaths of many innocents and it's a fucking crime but here we are. it is far too horrendous to make the "cry wolf" analogy but if we are hoping for a better future we have to hold our elected representatives accountable. this is exactly why lies matter.
posted by elkevelvet at 10:41 AM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
If figuring out what arguments might sway which Americans is important to you, start a thread for that. This thread is not that thread.
posted by rikschell at 10:44 AM on March 24, 2022 [29 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 10:44 AM on March 24, 2022 [29 favorites]
you are seeing a lot of talking heads saying those four words again "weapons of mass destruction" and it makes a person a little sick
Russia literally has thousands of nuclear weapons and has been openly threatening to use them in this conflict.
posted by The Tensor at 10:47 AM on March 24, 2022 [17 favorites]
Russia literally has thousands of nuclear weapons and has been openly threatening to use them in this conflict.
posted by The Tensor at 10:47 AM on March 24, 2022 [17 favorites]
The U.S. will take in up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war
I have family in 4 states that cannot house refugees, but can help - want to help - with food, clothing, transportation, tutoring, child care, etc. How do we find out which communities the refugees will be relocated to?Who coordinates placement of refugees? Do we start with the State Department?
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:15 AM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
I have family in 4 states that cannot house refugees, but can help - want to help - with food, clothing, transportation, tutoring, child care, etc. How do we find out which communities the refugees will be relocated to?Who coordinates placement of refugees? Do we start with the State Department?
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:15 AM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
The aforementioned electronic warfare system (a Krasucha-4, for what it's worth) is to be sent to the US for investigation.
This is actually a huge, huge deal - I wouldn't be surprised if this and the Ukranian refugee acceptance were linked. We've been wanting to get our hands on one of these for a while. It also shows a sophisticated understanding of how Ukraine can incentivize governments to keep going even when popular support appears to be flagging slightly.
posted by corb at 11:22 AM on March 24, 2022 [16 favorites]
This is actually a huge, huge deal - I wouldn't be surprised if this and the Ukranian refugee acceptance were linked. We've been wanting to get our hands on one of these for a while. It also shows a sophisticated understanding of how Ukraine can incentivize governments to keep going even when popular support appears to be flagging slightly.
posted by corb at 11:22 AM on March 24, 2022 [16 favorites]
Who coordinates placement of refugees?
In the US that's the Office of Refugee Resettlement, a division of the Department of Health and Human Services, but the ORR doesn't work directly with individuals. They coordinate with states and volunteer organizations throughout the US. The Refugee Council USA is an umbrella organization for those local refugee assistance organizations, and they have a starting page for volunteers to find a local organization.
posted by jedicus at 11:24 AM on March 24, 2022 [39 favorites]
In the US that's the Office of Refugee Resettlement, a division of the Department of Health and Human Services, but the ORR doesn't work directly with individuals. They coordinate with states and volunteer organizations throughout the US. The Refugee Council USA is an umbrella organization for those local refugee assistance organizations, and they have a starting page for volunteers to find a local organization.
posted by jedicus at 11:24 AM on March 24, 2022 [39 favorites]
jedicus - I have no idea how you know this but this is just what we needed. Thank you so much for making it easier for us to help.
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:27 AM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Silvery Fish at 11:27 AM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
A number of sources, including US intelligence, are reporting that an oligarch with Russian ties allegedly paid for locals to paint swastikas around Kharkiv. The effort, according to the sources, was part of a false flag operation to exaggerate Ukraine’s Nazi presence at a time when Putin was using it as a pretext for war. [ Rolling Stone ]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:42 AM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:42 AM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
Here is a video, apparently recorded earlier today, from a resident of Kharkiv describing her experiences, neighborhood, and thoughts about the future. It's contemplative, kind, and not violent.
posted by ferdydurke at 11:46 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ferdydurke at 11:46 AM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
NYT: Russia’s stock index reopens and rises with government intervention.
Likely paywalled, précis version:
Likely paywalled, précis version:
After shutting down for almost a month, the Russian stock market reopened for limited trading on Thursday. Just 33 companies, all listed in the benchmark MOEX index, were allowed to trade on the Moscow Exchange for four hours and 10 minutes.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:47 AM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
The MOEX index rose 4.4 percent, but it was probably buoyed by significant government policies intended to avoid a sell-off, including a measure to bar foreigners from selling stocks.
The Russian central bank said on Wednesday that there would be a ban on short selling the stocks, a type of trade involving a bet that a company’s share price will fall. Previously, the government said it would instruct its sovereign wealth fund to channel up to $10 billion into local stocks to stop their prices from plummeting. And in late February, the central bank barred brokers from executing sell orders by foreigners.
The White House called the partial reopening “a Potemkin market opening.”
(This
If figuring out what arguments might sway which Americans is important to you, start a thread for that. This thread is not that thread.
is entirely reasonable. I just note that mumimor is not American, and in fact lives somewhat closer to the current conflict though not immediately adjacent, if I recall correctly from last threads.)
posted by eviemath at 11:53 AM on March 24, 2022 [13 favorites]
If figuring out what arguments might sway which Americans is important to you, start a thread for that. This thread is not that thread.
is entirely reasonable. I just note that mumimor is not American, and in fact lives somewhat closer to the current conflict though not immediately adjacent, if I recall correctly from last threads.)
posted by eviemath at 11:53 AM on March 24, 2022 [13 favorites]
Refugee update from Poland: the law for Ukrainian refugees has been updated to assign court supervision for unaccompanied children. The Ukrainian government has stated that they prefer that children from Ukrainian orphanages stay in Poland, unless their medical needs can be better addressed in other countries. (Matt Shea still has orphans from Mariupol holed up in Kazimierz Dolny, but the authorities are keeping a close eye on things with regular police and social worker visits.)
Rape is a problem in this war too. The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced that all perpetrators will be prosecuted, though the one Russian soldier they've managed to identify so far has since died in battle. Many of the victims are now refugees, with Polish female soldiers and border control agents noting women and girls in deep trauma. Abortion is illegal in Poland in most cases (rape is one, but proof is needed), but feminist organisations are starting up programs to connect Ukrainians with abortion in Czechia and Germany, as well as prescriptions for Plan B equivalents.
In a contrast to how the ebbing wave of Ukrainian refugees are treated, pushbacks on the Belarusian border continue. The most recent case is a 16-person Kurdish family including a six-week-old baby, who were thrown out of a refugee camp on the Belarusian side and ordered across the border under threat of deportation back to Iraq. Thankfully after prodding from NGOs the Polish border guards and firefighters fished them out of the Narewka swamp and allowed the family to stay together on the Polish side with medical care, though they pushed back the men accompanying them. It seems the Belarusians are winding down their operation, but that means that right now the people attempting to cross are the ones who were least able to attempt it - children, elderly and disabled people.
And in Russian news: Alla Pugacheva and her fifth husband (who happens to be Jewish) have arrived in Israel to stay, according to Haaretz in protest of the invasion of Ukraine. She's probably the biggest name in Russian popular music, with a career of 57 years so far (she's 72) and 250 million records sold. This is Russia's Aretha Franklin and Madonna in one, and she just flipped Putin the bird.
Also under Russian protests, 12 officers of OMON (the special forces / riot police of the National Guard) who had been training in Crimea without prior knowledge of the invasion plain refused to take part and cross the border. They were summarily fired and are now suing for illegal dismissal because the invasion did not correspond to OMON regulations on foreign travel for work (!).
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:02 PM on March 24, 2022 [46 favorites]
Rape is a problem in this war too. The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced that all perpetrators will be prosecuted, though the one Russian soldier they've managed to identify so far has since died in battle. Many of the victims are now refugees, with Polish female soldiers and border control agents noting women and girls in deep trauma. Abortion is illegal in Poland in most cases (rape is one, but proof is needed), but feminist organisations are starting up programs to connect Ukrainians with abortion in Czechia and Germany, as well as prescriptions for Plan B equivalents.
In a contrast to how the ebbing wave of Ukrainian refugees are treated, pushbacks on the Belarusian border continue. The most recent case is a 16-person Kurdish family including a six-week-old baby, who were thrown out of a refugee camp on the Belarusian side and ordered across the border under threat of deportation back to Iraq. Thankfully after prodding from NGOs the Polish border guards and firefighters fished them out of the Narewka swamp and allowed the family to stay together on the Polish side with medical care, though they pushed back the men accompanying them. It seems the Belarusians are winding down their operation, but that means that right now the people attempting to cross are the ones who were least able to attempt it - children, elderly and disabled people.
And in Russian news: Alla Pugacheva and her fifth husband (who happens to be Jewish) have arrived in Israel to stay, according to Haaretz in protest of the invasion of Ukraine. She's probably the biggest name in Russian popular music, with a career of 57 years so far (she's 72) and 250 million records sold. This is Russia's Aretha Franklin and Madonna in one, and she just flipped Putin the bird.
Also under Russian protests, 12 officers of OMON (the special forces / riot police of the National Guard) who had been training in Crimea without prior knowledge of the invasion plain refused to take part and cross the border. They were summarily fired and are now suing for illegal dismissal because the invasion did not correspond to OMON regulations on foreign travel for work (!).
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:02 PM on March 24, 2022 [46 favorites]
Re refugees, last week the European Border and Coast Guard Agency frontex contract with Moldova was renewed once again.
To discuss frontex' track record here would be a huge derail, but suffice it to say it will make it hard to impossible for non-Ukrainians to cross into Moldova and onwards from Moldova into the EU.
More Info.
But seriously, this is not intended to start a debate here, only a foot note for those who want more background on fate of non-Ukrainians fleeing Ukraine, such as Kurdish people.
posted by 15L06 at 1:41 PM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
To discuss frontex' track record here would be a huge derail, but suffice it to say it will make it hard to impossible for non-Ukrainians to cross into Moldova and onwards from Moldova into the EU.
More Info.
But seriously, this is not intended to start a debate here, only a foot note for those who want more background on fate of non-Ukrainians fleeing Ukraine, such as Kurdish people.
posted by 15L06 at 1:41 PM on March 24, 2022 [7 favorites]
FYI, the Kurds crossing the Poland-Belarus border I mentioned weren't from Ukraine. They're the remnants of Lukashenko's scheme dating back to September, where he imported thousands of refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan etc, charged them through the nose for a "sure route" into the EU, and then pushed them at gunpoint across the border into some of the deadliest swamps in Europe to annoy Poland for our support of Belarusian opposition. Poland ended up pushing them right back (illegally, natch), with many perishing especially once it got colder, and even the ones who got through being settled in asylum centres that are close to prisons until their asylum cases go through. Absolute humanitarian disaster.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:48 PM on March 24, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:48 PM on March 24, 2022 [26 favorites]
PEN Ukraine will be holding a Dialogue on the Ukrainian war with writers Margaret Atwood and Natalka Snyadanko. Mar 25, 11:00 am EDT. PEN Ukraine is part of the network of national centers of PEN International. PEN International celebrates literature and promotes freedom of expression. Founded in 1921, its global community of writers spans more than 100 countries. PEN's campaigns, events, publications and programmes aim to connect writers and readers wherever they are in the world. PEN International is a non-political organisation and holds special consultative status at the United Nations.
posted by storybored at 1:53 PM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by storybored at 1:53 PM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kremlinology 2.0
The Guardian: Russian defence minister resurfaces on TV – but for just a few seconds
The Guardian: Russian defence minister resurfaces on TV – but for just a few seconds
For just a few seconds on Thursday, Sergei Shoigu was back on Russians’ television screens, sitting in the corner box of a teleconference with Vladimir Putin.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:31 PM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Russian defence minister, arguably the man most responsible for the floundering war effort in Ukraine, had not been seen in public for 12 days.
...
The clip released on Thursday was unusual: a security council teleconference with Vladimir Putin, where Shoigu was said to have reported “progress in the special military operation and efforts being made by the military to provide humanitarian aid, ensure security, and restore vital infrastructure on the liberated territories”.
But you wouldn’t know that because the sound was turned off. And Shoigu appeared for just seconds, as his camera was briefly unblocked to reveal him sitting in front of several Russian flags at an undisclosed location. His arm moved, proving it wasn’t just a picture of the defence minister returned to television to dispel rumours about his demise.
And then, just as quickly, he was gone again.
His arm moved, proving it wasn’t just a picture of the defence minister returned to television to dispel rumours about his demise.
LOL, looping a few seconds of cam video is a stale trick even for Twitch react streams these days.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:38 PM on March 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
LOL, looping a few seconds of cam video is a stale trick even for Twitch react streams these days.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:38 PM on March 24, 2022 [10 favorites]
Ludmyla Denosova, the human rights ombudsperson of Ukraine, has estimated the number of Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia at 402 thousand in Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts. Forcible deportations have been a Russian habit for centuries, including sentencing political opponents to exile in Siberia during the tsars, deportations of Poles after the USSR invaded eastern Poland in 1939, and the exile of the Crimean Tatars.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:46 PM on March 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:46 PM on March 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
LOL, looping a few seconds of cam video is a stale trick even for Twitch react streams these days.
Kevin Rothrock on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:49 PM on March 24, 2022 [13 favorites]
Kevin Rothrock on Twitter
On the supposed reappearance of Russia’s defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, @MoscowTimes points out that today’s teeny tiny footage seems to match what we saw on March 11, his last sighting. Background, necktie, and clothes. 🤷♂️ https://t.me/TMT_ru/3517Includes photo. That t.me link is Moscow Times on telegram with video comparison.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:49 PM on March 24, 2022 [13 favorites]
The only people they are convincing are each other, within their established circles; and if anything the knee-jerk reaction that the US is a priori on wrong side of any post-colonial imperialist confrontation, no matter what or who else is involved, is pushing less absurd people around them to re-examine their affiliations.
This. Tankies and their ilk frequently drive me to distraction, but I usually end up reminding myself that they really don't matter. They're a tiny minority in the U.S. The fact that some of them can be very glib, and that they have a good social media game (augmented by trolls and bots and foreign influence operations), allows them to seem more influential than they really are.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:52 PM on March 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
This. Tankies and their ilk frequently drive me to distraction, but I usually end up reminding myself that they really don't matter. They're a tiny minority in the U.S. The fact that some of them can be very glib, and that they have a good social media game (augmented by trolls and bots and foreign influence operations), allows them to seem more influential than they really are.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:52 PM on March 24, 2022 [12 favorites]
On the supposed reappearance of Russia’s defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, @MoscowTimes points out that today’s teeny tiny footage seems to match what we saw on March 11, his last sighting. Background, necktie, and clothes. 🤷♂️ https://t.me/TMT_ru/3517
Of course it's the necktie that gives it away. If it was from recently he'd be wearing a Stolypin.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:00 PM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Of course it's the necktie that gives it away. If it was from recently he'd be wearing a Stolypin.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:00 PM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Artifice_Eternity, sometimes the difference between seeming influential and BEING influential is tiny, particularly with issues where many people will want to believe what is being said by the respective group. So far, there has been (mostly) an outpouring of goodwill, but I fear that will soon stop. Let's not forget that all countries who have most capacity to help (i.e. western countries - the richest on the planet) have been radicalized against refugees. Up until now that was mostly against non-white refugees (for at least in good part reasons of racism and/ or religious animosity), but make no mistake, sentiments for Ukrainians are on razor's edge. I know this is not perceived in the US, but people from EE have been variously met as 'better than those others, since they are at least white' or, more frequently in recent years, 'weird, barbarous aliens who we have no alegiance to - unlike our friends from countries we may have devastated via colonialism, but at least now they are friends since we share some history, unlike with hose disgusting foreigners from EE'.
Some of the western European left at a minimum has been weirdly disdainful of Eastern Europeans for literally decades, because we taint the purity of leftism by having gotten it so very wrong. In the UK, for example, when people talk about 'Europe', they explicitly exclude EE.
So I wouldn't dismiss the impact of the extrem left from wherever they might be, particularly since they are seriously propagandised for quite a while.
BTW, if you see people from EE who are inexplicably right-wing, this is one of the reasons - alongside the usual suspects (an authoritrian bend, misogyny, racism, etc).
posted by doggod at 3:12 PM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
Some of the western European left at a minimum has been weirdly disdainful of Eastern Europeans for literally decades, because we taint the purity of leftism by having gotten it so very wrong. In the UK, for example, when people talk about 'Europe', they explicitly exclude EE.
So I wouldn't dismiss the impact of the extrem left from wherever they might be, particularly since they are seriously propagandised for quite a while.
BTW, if you see people from EE who are inexplicably right-wing, this is one of the reasons - alongside the usual suspects (an authoritrian bend, misogyny, racism, etc).
posted by doggod at 3:12 PM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
he'd be wearing a Stolypin
Please pardon my ignorance—what is a Stolypin?
posted by Big Al 8000 at 3:51 PM on March 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Please pardon my ignorance—what is a Stolypin?
posted by Big Al 8000 at 3:51 PM on March 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Stolypin's efficient black Monday necktie
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
With regard to Western European leftist attitudes, I found this article from a Ukrainian scholar really interesting. It's in an anticapitalist French magazine and mainly speaks to the more antiestablishment left (insoumis, communistes, etc.), but I think Jacobin readers might find it compelling too.
An Inconvenient War: What to Do When Russia Attacks Ukraine but You're on the Left?
Note, I tested in-browser translation in Chrome and it was kind of glitchy (with some passages duplicated and others gone), but copy-pasting the full text into Google Translate worked just fine.
posted by neal at 4:16 PM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
An Inconvenient War: What to Do When Russia Attacks Ukraine but You're on the Left?
Note, I tested in-browser translation in Chrome and it was kind of glitchy (with some passages duplicated and others gone), but copy-pasting the full text into Google Translate worked just fine.
posted by neal at 4:16 PM on March 24, 2022 [4 favorites]
My apologies for starting a derail, and then leaving for work.
I am in Denmark. According to EU research, Denmark was the country in Europe with least support for Russia, closely followed by the other Nordics, and least influenced by Russian trolls even before the current war. We have one politician who is sponsored by Russia, and she was forced to leave her former (right wing) party when the war broke out. This means that someone who spouts Russian propaganda is completely, utterly out of place in an organization like the one I work for, and it is worrying. I don't know wether this person is far left or far right, but I suspect far right. When I mentioned my leftist friends, it was because I discussed it with a moderately leftist friend afterwards who opined that they (the pro-Russian propagandist) did have a point, even though most of what they said was ridiculous, and I had to restrain myself from screaming at my friend.
Denmark is relatively far from Ukraine, but if there is a NATO/Russia war, Russia will need control of Denmark first thing. As in literally the first thing. Russia needs to pass Denmark to get access to the Atlantic (I know they also have Arctic harbors in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, and that the Norwegians are similarly worried and very alert, but it is a slightly different situation. The Russians don't have to take all of Norway to pass Norway. Because of geography, they do have to take all of Denmark. And transporting troops and weapons and everything else beyond the Arctic Circle is not simple, even in a country where permafrost is the norm). A part of Denmark was occupied for a year after the end of WWII by the Russians. We will never forget, and this was probably why Denmark was a very strong driver in the push for expanding NATO, regardless of Russian feelings and we have made diplomatic friends with many former East Block countries that are in similar situations and soldiers stationed in the Baltic nations.
I was initially a bit surprised at how aware most Danes are of this, but that is because I am not following the news obsessively like others. On the front page of the public broadcasting network there is an article about bunkers. As if they will be of any help. We will look like Ukraine within hours. When we see how Russia is terror-bombing Ukraine, directly targeting civilians, we know we will be next, if this escalates.
Also, as mentioned above, there are a lot of personal connections between Denmark and Ukraine, Ukrainian refugees here are almost all being helped by friends or friends of friends.
I haven't posted about all of this because I am against the war-gaming thing, but at this point I can see there are some misunderstandings I create with more subdued posts. So there it is. And I hope I don't have to bring it up again, because already now, I can feel I won't sleep after writing this. Incidentally, in spite of what I wrote about following the news, there is much less war-speculation going on in the news here than in international media, probably because the media here feel like me about it.
posted by mumimor at 4:18 PM on March 24, 2022 [78 favorites]
I am in Denmark. According to EU research, Denmark was the country in Europe with least support for Russia, closely followed by the other Nordics, and least influenced by Russian trolls even before the current war. We have one politician who is sponsored by Russia, and she was forced to leave her former (right wing) party when the war broke out. This means that someone who spouts Russian propaganda is completely, utterly out of place in an organization like the one I work for, and it is worrying. I don't know wether this person is far left or far right, but I suspect far right. When I mentioned my leftist friends, it was because I discussed it with a moderately leftist friend afterwards who opined that they (the pro-Russian propagandist) did have a point, even though most of what they said was ridiculous, and I had to restrain myself from screaming at my friend.
Denmark is relatively far from Ukraine, but if there is a NATO/Russia war, Russia will need control of Denmark first thing. As in literally the first thing. Russia needs to pass Denmark to get access to the Atlantic (I know they also have Arctic harbors in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, and that the Norwegians are similarly worried and very alert, but it is a slightly different situation. The Russians don't have to take all of Norway to pass Norway. Because of geography, they do have to take all of Denmark. And transporting troops and weapons and everything else beyond the Arctic Circle is not simple, even in a country where permafrost is the norm). A part of Denmark was occupied for a year after the end of WWII by the Russians. We will never forget, and this was probably why Denmark was a very strong driver in the push for expanding NATO, regardless of Russian feelings and we have made diplomatic friends with many former East Block countries that are in similar situations and soldiers stationed in the Baltic nations.
I was initially a bit surprised at how aware most Danes are of this, but that is because I am not following the news obsessively like others. On the front page of the public broadcasting network there is an article about bunkers. As if they will be of any help. We will look like Ukraine within hours. When we see how Russia is terror-bombing Ukraine, directly targeting civilians, we know we will be next, if this escalates.
Also, as mentioned above, there are a lot of personal connections between Denmark and Ukraine, Ukrainian refugees here are almost all being helped by friends or friends of friends.
I haven't posted about all of this because I am against the war-gaming thing, but at this point I can see there are some misunderstandings I create with more subdued posts. So there it is. And I hope I don't have to bring it up again, because already now, I can feel I won't sleep after writing this. Incidentally, in spite of what I wrote about following the news, there is much less war-speculation going on in the news here than in international media, probably because the media here feel like me about it.
posted by mumimor at 4:18 PM on March 24, 2022 [78 favorites]
The Hill: Biden says he supports removing Russia from G-20
The president said he raised the possibility that if Indonesia, which is hosting this year's G-20 gathering, or other member nations don't agree with removing Russia, Ukraine should be able to attend the meetings and observe.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:43 PM on March 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
Google Translate link for that Lundi.am article.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:46 PM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:46 PM on March 24, 2022 [3 favorites]
How Russia is using tactics from the Syrian playbook in Ukraine
Entire settlements reduced to rubble, attacks on civilian targets and the bombing of refugee exit routes were all part of Moscow’s brutal Syria campaign.
posted by adamvasco at 5:01 PM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
Entire settlements reduced to rubble, attacks on civilian targets and the bombing of refugee exit routes were all part of Moscow’s brutal Syria campaign.
posted by adamvasco at 5:01 PM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
I thought this bit was particularly sharp, from the Lundi.am article:
"Until the Western left speaks out against Putin's ultra-right regime and reconnects with the socialist tradition of supporting the struggles of small nations against imperialist oppressors, we are witnessing an attitude that only aggravates the situation. Western socialists who wholesale condemn all Ukrainians as “Atlanticist” “Nazis” are not neutral agents. Their position influences attitudes within Ukrainian society, which is increasingly moving away from the left as the latter is perceived as “pro-Putin”. By reinforcing the stereotypes implanted by the Ukrainian right, the Western left helps to stifle any progressive initiative and amplifies the voice of nationalists."
posted by tavella at 5:12 PM on March 24, 2022 [21 favorites]
"Until the Western left speaks out against Putin's ultra-right regime and reconnects with the socialist tradition of supporting the struggles of small nations against imperialist oppressors, we are witnessing an attitude that only aggravates the situation. Western socialists who wholesale condemn all Ukrainians as “Atlanticist” “Nazis” are not neutral agents. Their position influences attitudes within Ukrainian society, which is increasingly moving away from the left as the latter is perceived as “pro-Putin”. By reinforcing the stereotypes implanted by the Ukrainian right, the Western left helps to stifle any progressive initiative and amplifies the voice of nationalists."
posted by tavella at 5:12 PM on March 24, 2022 [21 favorites]
Ukrainian guards from Snake Island freed in prisoner exchange with Russia, UPI, Simon Druker, March 24, 2022:
Ukraine conducted a prisoner swap with Russia, which freed 10 border guards who were captured while defending a small island in the Black Sea, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Thursday.posted by cenoxo at 5:23 PM on March 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
Vereshchuk announced the two countries each exchanged 10 prisoners of war, the first large-scale exchange of the conflict that began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. "In exchange for 10 captured occupiers we rescued 10 of our servicemen," she wrote on Facebook.
The countries have conducted at least two prior, smaller prisoner swaps, including one that involved Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov. Both sides also exchanged a number of civilian prisoners, including more than a dozen Ukrainian sailors, plucked from the Black Sea as their ship sank in February.
"Also, today we sent 11 Russian civilian sailors to the Russians, whom we rescued from a sunken ship near Odessa. As a result of this exchange, 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors are returning home from the rescue ship Sapphire, which was captured by the occupiers while trying to take our troops from Snake Island. Under the terms of the exchange, the lifeboat itself will also be returned to Ukraine and sent to a port in Turkey," Vereshchuk wrote….
It's a little unclear, but those might not be the Snake Island guards themselves, but a civilian team that was supposed to pick up the Snake Island prisoners but instead the deal was reneged on and they were imprisoned instead. I remember hearing about it very early on. Or possibly it could a group including both parties - 5 crew members on a small boat and 14 border guards would be pretty reasonable.
posted by tavella at 5:28 PM on March 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by tavella at 5:28 PM on March 24, 2022 [6 favorites]
Turns out the Sapphire is a good-sized ship, so I think this is just her crew.
posted by tavella at 5:32 PM on March 24, 2022
posted by tavella at 5:32 PM on March 24, 2022
That statement linked in the UPI article doesn't quite say what they say it does. Goog Translate:
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:33 PM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
Today, by order of President Zelensky, the first full-fledged exchange of prisoners of war took place. In exchange for 10 captured occupiers, we pulled out 10 of our servicemen.Nothing specifically about the Snake Island guards, just the boat that tried to get them.
Also, today we sent 11 Russian civilian sailors to the Russians, whom we rescued from a sunken ship near Odessa. As a result of this exchange, 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors are returning home from the rescue ship "Sapphire", which was captured by the occupiers while trying to take our troops from the island of Snake. Under the terms of the exchange, the lifeboat itself will also be returned to Ukraine and sent to a port in Turkey.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:33 PM on March 24, 2022 [5 favorites]
There’s a few more details in: Snake Island sailors freed as Ukraine and Russia conduct prisoner exchange – Not immediately clear whether Ukrainian troops stationed on ‘Zmiyyny’ were among freed captives, Tom Batchelor, The Independent, March 24, 2022.
posted by cenoxo at 5:51 PM on March 24, 2022
posted by cenoxo at 5:51 PM on March 24, 2022
With regard to Western European leftist attitudes, I found this article from a Ukrainian scholar really interesting. It's in an anticapitalist French magazine and mainly speaks to the more antiestablishment left (insoumis, communistes, etc.), but I think Jacobin readers might find it compelling too.
I'm a leftist who doesn't read Jacobin, or spend time with other leftists, so from my perspective, the author makes two key mistakes, as follows. First, they misdiagnose the tankies. What tankies are are class-reductionists, also known as Marxist-Leninists or some variant thereof. That is why they behave in all the strange, harmful ways that the author mentions throughout the essay. But because the diagnosis is wrong, the tankies or Bernie Bros or whoever will not find it compelling, they will just say the author doesn't understand them. Second, the author conveniently forgets about the Doomsday Clock and dismisses it as a mere issue of uncritically accepting geopolitical realism. The Doomsday Clock was founded by Albert Einsten and you don't have to be further left than Einstein to understand that even non-leftists like Biden, et. al, have literally one reason why it is better to appease Putin.
posted by polymodus at 7:20 PM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm a leftist who doesn't read Jacobin, or spend time with other leftists, so from my perspective, the author makes two key mistakes, as follows. First, they misdiagnose the tankies. What tankies are are class-reductionists, also known as Marxist-Leninists or some variant thereof. That is why they behave in all the strange, harmful ways that the author mentions throughout the essay. But because the diagnosis is wrong, the tankies or Bernie Bros or whoever will not find it compelling, they will just say the author doesn't understand them. Second, the author conveniently forgets about the Doomsday Clock and dismisses it as a mere issue of uncritically accepting geopolitical realism. The Doomsday Clock was founded by Albert Einsten and you don't have to be further left than Einstein to understand that even non-leftists like Biden, et. al, have literally one reason why it is better to appease Putin.
posted by polymodus at 7:20 PM on March 24, 2022 [2 favorites]
Back to Ukraine:
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
Mariupol City Council calls for help as residents begin to die from starvation.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:41 PM on March 24, 2022 [9 favorites]
More and more people are left without any food while multiple attempts to create humanitarian corridors and to provide aid have failed as Russian troops continue to violate ceasefire agreements.
MetaFilter: But seriously, this is not intended to start a debate here.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 8:11 PM on March 24, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by ZenMasterThis at 8:11 PM on March 24, 2022 [16 favorites]
Mod note: A couple comments deleted. Folks, the Chomsky derail needs to stop now.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 8:43 PM on March 24, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 8:43 PM on March 24, 2022 [19 favorites]
A very deep dive into Putin Khuylo-- explanation, untranslatability, pronunciation, grammar, history, soccer culture, possible cause of war, likely effect on Putin's permanent reputation.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 12:02 AM on March 25, 2022 [46 favorites]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 12:02 AM on March 25, 2022 [46 favorites]
That (here’s the direct link), Nancy Lebovitz, is absolute gold! (H*llo Putty)
posted by progosk at 12:41 AM on March 25, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by progosk at 12:41 AM on March 25, 2022 [12 favorites]
If you enjoyed Denys Gorbach's article linked above, you might also like this two part interview (includes a transcript),
I certainly did.
More English articles here, by Gorbach and others of the Ukrainian left.
posted by 15L06 at 1:24 AM on March 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
I certainly did.
More English articles here, by Gorbach and others of the Ukrainian left.
posted by 15L06 at 1:24 AM on March 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
Am I correct in recalling that Dreamwidth has some connection to Russia (discussed around the LJ buyout)? As that's kinda ironic.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:17 AM on March 25, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:17 AM on March 25, 2022
Insofar that it was LJ who got bought up by a Russian company (though that was at least two buyouts ago) who bought it in response to the fact the blogging in Russia and livejournal was practically synonymous, and anyway due to that and other censorship issues, the fandom-y side of LJ developed their own fork which is DW. At least that's how i recalled it.
posted by cendawanita at 2:21 AM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 2:21 AM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
Yeah, Dreamwidth was created by American ex-employees of Livejournal partly because they were uncomfortable with their data being in Russia. As far as I know Dreamwidth is fully American.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:29 AM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:29 AM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
Here is Dreamwidth's staff page. Now, let's go back to Ukraine.
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:33 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:33 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
John Sweeney March 24th: Russia Fights Against Time.
Ukrainian forces have retaken territory outside Kyiv, nearly encircling the enemy’s troops.
You can tell the war is close because ordinary life disappears. There’s no one walking their dog, no old people shuffling, no kids. We sail through the checkpoint we were stopped at last time we were here and zoom along an empty highway, through Kalynivka and into unknown territory.
posted by adamvasco at 4:22 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ukrainian forces have retaken territory outside Kyiv, nearly encircling the enemy’s troops.
You can tell the war is close because ordinary life disappears. There’s no one walking their dog, no old people shuffling, no kids. We sail through the checkpoint we were stopped at last time we were here and zoom along an empty highway, through Kalynivka and into unknown territory.
posted by adamvasco at 4:22 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
VR, the Finnish state railway, will suspend its train service between Finland and Russia. There are still buses which make that trip, but there aren't that many of them and the ones I found online seem to sell out days in advance.
And since I'm posting about Finland… All Points North, the podcast of YLE News, the Finnish public broadcaster's English-language service, devoted half of its latest episode to delving into how Finnish authorities are helping Ukrainian refugees settle in Finland.
posted by Kattullus at 4:34 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
And since I'm posting about Finland… All Points North, the podcast of YLE News, the Finnish public broadcaster's English-language service, devoted half of its latest episode to delving into how Finnish authorities are helping Ukrainian refugees settle in Finland.
posted by Kattullus at 4:34 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
Kyiv Independent: ⚡️ CNN: US, EU announce task force to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian oil, gas.
“The United States will work towards supplying Europe with at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquified natural gas in 2022, in partnership with other nations,” the White House said.
posted by cendawanita at 4:49 AM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
“The United States will work towards supplying Europe with at least 15 billion cubic meters of liquified natural gas in 2022, in partnership with other nations,” the White House said.
posted by cendawanita at 4:49 AM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
Russia cancels the teaching of sociology, cultural studies and political science in all pedagogical universities of the country
Russia is really cracking down on any form of critical thinking, clearly someone is unconcerned about the positive future of their country…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:15 AM on March 25, 2022 [28 favorites]
Russia is really cracking down on any form of critical thinking, clearly someone is unconcerned about the positive future of their country…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 5:15 AM on March 25, 2022 [28 favorites]
A thread (speculative) on what is the most important/least discussed strategic concept of the invasion so far: Ukrainian strategy. What the Ukrainians have done seems systematic, well-planned and very effective. This is an attempt to systematize it as a non Ukrainian... - again @Phillips P. OBrien
posted by rongorongo at 6:07 AM on March 25, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 6:07 AM on March 25, 2022 [9 favorites]
Some interesting points about the strengths of the Soviet-era army in this AskHistorians post.
posted by doggod at 6:51 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by doggod at 6:51 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
It feels like that moment in a fantasy series when the disparate forces of light and darkness align in their respective alliances before the ultimate battle.
Vladimir Putin defends JK Rowling in speech condemning ‘cancel culture’ in the west.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 7:10 AM on March 25, 2022 [15 favorites]
Vladimir Putin defends JK Rowling in speech condemning ‘cancel culture’ in the west.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 7:10 AM on March 25, 2022 [15 favorites]
A thread (speculative) on what is the most important/least discussed strategic concept of the invasion so far: Ukrainian strategy. What the Ukrainians have done seems systematic, well-planned and very effective. This is an attempt to systematize it as a non Ukrainian... - again
With the major caveat that I'm no expert in military tactics, that thread seems to be basically taking what happened (eg, Russians got strung out in long convoys) and framing each of those things as a deliberate Ukrainian tactic. But I think the actual Ukrainian tactic was in developing flexible and often effective responses to those Russian actions. No one forced the Russian military to create a 40km traffic jam -- that was a self-inflicted wound -- just like no one expected them to be unable or unwilling to utilize enough modern airpower to establish dominance.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:16 AM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
With the major caveat that I'm no expert in military tactics, that thread seems to be basically taking what happened (eg, Russians got strung out in long convoys) and framing each of those things as a deliberate Ukrainian tactic. But I think the actual Ukrainian tactic was in developing flexible and often effective responses to those Russian actions. No one forced the Russian military to create a 40km traffic jam -- that was a self-inflicted wound -- just like no one expected them to be unable or unwilling to utilize enough modern airpower to establish dominance.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:16 AM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russia is risking the creation of a “splinternet”—and it could be irreversible. If Russia disconnects from—or is booted from— the internet’s governing bodies, the internet may never be the same again for any of us., James Ball, MIT Technology Review, March 17, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 7:21 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Russia’s disconnection from the online services of the West has been as abrupt and complete as its disconnection from real-world global trade routes.More in the article.
Facebook has been blocked entirely by Russian authorities, while Twitter is almost completely cut off. Many more companies have voluntarily withdrawn from the Russian market—including Apple, Microsoft, TikTok, Netflix, and others. Russia is rapidly joining the likes of Iran as a digital pariah state.
The European Union, in turn, is seeking to all but wipe certain Russian outlets from the internet—with guidance on new bans of state-owned RT (formerly Russia Today) and Sputnik suggesting that not only should the sites be blocked, but that search engines and social networks should hide delete any post repeating content from said sites.
…more profound splits are on the cards—provoked by action on both sides. Russia has declared Meta (owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) to be an “extremist organization” and is withdrawing from international governance bodies such as the Council of Europe and has been suspended from the European Broadcasting Union. If such moves were replicated with the internet’s governing bodies, the results could be seismic.
The moves have raised fears of a “splinternet” (or Balkanized internet), in which instead of the single global internet we have today, we have a number of national or regional networks that don’t speak to one another and perhaps even operate using incompatible technologies.
That would spell the end of the internet as a single global communications technology—and perhaps not only temporarily. China and Iran still use the same internet technology as the US and Europe—even if they have access to only some of its services. If such countries set up rival governance bodies and a rival network, only the mutual agreement of all the world’s major nations could rebuild it. The era of a connected world would be over.…
posted by cenoxo at 7:21 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Wow, TheophileEscargot, was just talking about that connection with some friends from the UK in a Whtsapp group - the one topic they have stayed stumm on...
posted by doggod at 7:23 AM on March 25, 2022
posted by doggod at 7:23 AM on March 25, 2022
I wonder if Putin's gesture will be returned. Is Mumsnet awash with Kremlin talking points about Russia's self-defence/liberation/denazification/Fauci biolabs or similar? Have many prominent TERFs thrown themselves in on the Russian side, in the way that the (traditional) far right have?
Along similar lines: a survey in Canada shows 26% of the unvaccinated support Russia, compared to 2% of the vaccinated, suggesting that the anti-vaccine movement has been brought onside.
posted by acb at 7:23 AM on March 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
Along similar lines: a survey in Canada shows 26% of the unvaccinated support Russia, compared to 2% of the vaccinated, suggesting that the anti-vaccine movement has been brought onside.
posted by acb at 7:23 AM on March 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
Cenoxo, thanks for that link - would just like to point out that the use of Balkanised as a pejorative is really not OK (I know it's not you, but the article's writer, and they probably didn't mean anything bad by that, but the effect is what it is). The Balkan is a geographic area and its use as a verb always has a pejorative edge.
posted by doggod at 7:29 AM on March 25, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by doggod at 7:29 AM on March 25, 2022 [12 favorites]
That would spell the end of the internet as a single global communications technology—and perhaps not only temporarily. China and Iran still use the same internet technology as the US and Europe—even if they have access to only some of its services. If such countries set up rival governance bodies and a rival network, only the mutual agreement of all the world’s major nations could rebuild it. The era of a connected world would be over.…
A "connected world" is kind of a misnomer since through de facto usage of NAT and everyone putting up firewalls only a small percentage of hosts are actually reachable on the Internet anymore compared to its infancy where every Windows 95 installation was broadcasting NetBIOS over TCP/IP on port 139.
Even if we speak the same protocols we're not necessarily "connected" and there are plenty of ways to translate and route between incompatible protocols. The idea of a "connected" world is that our default route leads to everything we want to access. That isn't the only route though.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:49 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
A "connected world" is kind of a misnomer since through de facto usage of NAT and everyone putting up firewalls only a small percentage of hosts are actually reachable on the Internet anymore compared to its infancy where every Windows 95 installation was broadcasting NetBIOS over TCP/IP on port 139.
Even if we speak the same protocols we're not necessarily "connected" and there are plenty of ways to translate and route between incompatible protocols. The idea of a "connected" world is that our default route leads to everything we want to access. That isn't the only route though.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:49 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
Further to I claim sanctuary's comment yesterday about rape victims among the refugees arriving in Poland from Ukraine, here's info via email I received this week from the UK Abortion Support Network:
Abortion Without Borders has begun to hear from clients displaced from Ukraine, and we are expecting to hear from more people as the conflict continues. It presents us with new challenges - including how to connect people with abortion pills when they don't have a secure address - but we will continue to help anyone who contacts us, regardless of migration status or country of origin, for as long as our resources allow us to.posted by valetta at 8:18 AM on March 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
Information on how to do an abortion with pills in Ukrainian and Russian (from Abortion Dream Team)
For people in Poland who need an abortion, contact the Abortion Without Borders helpline
The Chieftain says: Be careful drawing conclusions from the Ukraine videos. This is an Irish guy who has commanded M1 Abrams tanks serving in the US Army. He has a video channel all about tanks.
posted by Bee'sWing at 8:22 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 8:22 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Some grains of salt:
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Bill Roggio on Twitter
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Bill Roggio on Twitter
1) The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kiev & the fog of war. @nytimes: "... signs of actual, on the ground progress were elusive. Ukrainian forces have been unable to demonstrate they control villages or towns previously held by the Russian army."posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:30 AM on March 25, 2022 [8 favorites]
2) The town of Irpin: "The deputy police chief of Irpin, Oleksandr Bogai, said Russian soldiers were still in the town, occupying several districts and fighting Ukrainian forces. That is essentially the same situation that has persisted for nearly the entire month of the war."
3) "In Makariv, another battleground town to the west of Kyiv that Ukrainian officials claimed to have recaptured this week, the fighting was also ongoing, Vadym Tokar, the mayor, said in a telephone interview."
4) "'I don’t understand where this nonsense came from,' he [Mayor Tokar] said of reports his town had been liberated. 'It is not true. We have shelling and we have Russian tanks shooting into the town right now.'"
5) "The head of the Kyiv regional military administration, Oleksandr Pavliuk, said Thursday that the counteroffensive had managed to 'improve positions' in Irpin and Makariv, but did not assert control."
6) One other piece of information, on Izium in the east, the status of which is unclear: "Russian forces have continued to make advances in eastern Ukraine, where its military claimed on Thursday to have captured Izyum, a provincial town in the Kharkiv region."
7) "Ukraine denied it was captured. Neither account could be independently confirmed."
8) Last week, the U.S. Department of Defense claimed the Russians were in control of Izium. Again, the fog of war.
Russian troops have begun fragging their COs:
BREAKING: A Russian brigade commander has been killed deliberately by his own troops after his unit suffered many losses in Ukraine, a western official said.posted by NoxAeternum at 8:54 AM on March 25, 2022 [8 favorites]
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
suggesting that the anti-vaccine movement has been brought onside.
if the few relevant individuals I'm aware of are any indication, it's not so much that they've been "brought onside" (ie: they're Putin allies, they're protesting in favour of Russia, wearing I-heart-Putin t-shirts or whatever) -- what they are is cognitively dissonant with a vengeance. They've already committed to their "research" so deeply to the point of falling out with family, friends, losing jobs even -- well, there's nowhere to go but either admit their foolishness and thus be humiliated, or dig deeper. And deeper in this case means a continued rejection of the "lamestream media" blah-blah-blah.
Though that said, I've had at least slightly fruitful conversations with at least one old friend to the degree that I don't reject his critiques of the West (US foreign policy, the murderous mess made of Iraq in particular) as completely as I do his resolutely anti-vax stance. I think this confused him, suggested some nuance he wasn't ready for.
posted by philip-random at 9:00 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
if the few relevant individuals I'm aware of are any indication, it's not so much that they've been "brought onside" (ie: they're Putin allies, they're protesting in favour of Russia, wearing I-heart-Putin t-shirts or whatever) -- what they are is cognitively dissonant with a vengeance. They've already committed to their "research" so deeply to the point of falling out with family, friends, losing jobs even -- well, there's nowhere to go but either admit their foolishness and thus be humiliated, or dig deeper. And deeper in this case means a continued rejection of the "lamestream media" blah-blah-blah.
Though that said, I've had at least slightly fruitful conversations with at least one old friend to the degree that I don't reject his critiques of the West (US foreign policy, the murderous mess made of Iraq in particular) as completely as I do his resolutely anti-vax stance. I think this confused him, suggested some nuance he wasn't ready for.
posted by philip-random at 9:00 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
As expected, Twitter hasn't been quiet about Putin's recent Potter fandom:
- @CraigGallagher: Harry Potter and the Denazification of the Ukraine
- @JimMFelton: When JK Rowling sat in that cafe all those years ago, there’s no way she could have known she’d one day be endorsed by Vladimir Putin. Never give up on your dreams.
- and @KatyMontgomerie with Putin's opinion column in the Grauniad.
FYI even though they are part of a right wing neocon think tank, the daily reports (posted between 5-6pm US Eastern time) by the Institute for the Study of War have so far seemed to be the most accurate in terms of matching up with facts confirmed by other news outlets about the actual state of counter offensives and Russian gains.
A couple of articles I’ve read today that seemed worth sharing.
This interview with Ukraine’s intelligence chief in The Nation has some insights into Ukraine’s strategy and their plans for insurgency and resistance in occupied areas.
Also this article in The Atlantic where the reporter a retired Marine shares drinks with another retired U.S. Marine who has been volunteering with the Ukrainian Army. It has some insights into how the urban combat has changed with drones and javelins since even relatively recent U.S. COIN operations in Iraq like the battle of Fallujah and the inability to tanks to support infantry in the way they have since ww2
posted by interogative mood at 9:38 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
A couple of articles I’ve read today that seemed worth sharing.
This interview with Ukraine’s intelligence chief in The Nation has some insights into Ukraine’s strategy and their plans for insurgency and resistance in occupied areas.
Also this article in The Atlantic where the reporter a retired Marine shares drinks with another retired U.S. Marine who has been volunteering with the Ukrainian Army. It has some insights into how the urban combat has changed with drones and javelins since even relatively recent U.S. COIN operations in Iraq like the battle of Fallujah and the inability to tanks to support infantry in the way they have since ww2
posted by interogative mood at 9:38 AM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is a world-shaking event and I think it's fine for people to be involved in the discussion without requiring they subscribe to any particular phraseology; so long as they refrain from the stuff the mods have already made clear is unacceptable.
Less posting about what other people ought to be posting is desirable, especially on the blue. There's a grey thread for that. Fave or respond to comments you feel are worthy, flag those you don't.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:21 AM on March 25, 2022 [15 favorites]
Less posting about what other people ought to be posting is desirable, especially on the blue. There's a grey thread for that. Fave or respond to comments you feel are worthy, flag those you don't.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:21 AM on March 25, 2022 [15 favorites]
Following the example of their Royal Family:
Dutch Cabinet to shelter 15,000 refugees in government buildings
Dutch Cabinet to shelter 15,000 refugees in government buildings
The Cabinet is going to make buildings owned by the central government’s real estate agency available for the reception of refugees. This means that 15,000 places can be created, said Public Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge after the weekly meeting of Cabinet ministers on Friday. They may be housed in office buildings, as an example, De Jonge said. The use of one prison is also under consideration, as are buildings that can be converted into living spaces.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:55 AM on March 25, 2022 [9 favorites]
The places are not only intended for Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion of their home country, but also for people from other countries who have applied for asylum in the Netherlands. The Cabinet is allocating 75 million euros to make the buildings suitable for the temporary reception of refugees.
Also this article in The Atlantic where the reporter a retired Marine shares drinks with another retired U.S. Marine who has been volunteering with the Ukrainian Army.
Any way to get past the firewall?
posted by goalyeehah at 11:03 AM on March 25, 2022
Any way to get past the firewall?
posted by goalyeehah at 11:03 AM on March 25, 2022
Here's a non-Atlantic link to (what I think is) the Atlantic article.
posted by Slothrup at 11:06 AM on March 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Slothrup at 11:06 AM on March 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mirror link.
(Deleting all the cookies the Atlantic sets should work too.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:08 AM on March 25, 2022
(Deleting all the cookies the Atlantic sets should work too.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:08 AM on March 25, 2022
Hungary and Ukraine are not seeing eye to eye:
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has told the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to choose a side when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during a heartfelt address to EU leaders.
Zelenskiy confronted Hungary’s leader, whose recent condemnation of the war has not allayed doubts about his pro-Kremlin leanings, after years as Vladimir Putin’s staunchest ally in the EU. “Listen, Viktor, do you know what’s going on in Mariupol?” Zelenskiy said, drawing a line between the brutal bombardment of the strategic port city and Hungary’s past.
On Tuesday Ukraine, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said :Hungary says “no” to “virtually everything,” involving potential aid arguing that the “strategic calm” approach which Budapest is following is not far from an openly pro-Russian position.
The Hungarian Embassy went on to Reject the Accusation of Wanting Transcarpathia.
posted by adamvasco at 11:09 AM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has told the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to choose a side when it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during a heartfelt address to EU leaders.
Zelenskiy confronted Hungary’s leader, whose recent condemnation of the war has not allayed doubts about his pro-Kremlin leanings, after years as Vladimir Putin’s staunchest ally in the EU. “Listen, Viktor, do you know what’s going on in Mariupol?” Zelenskiy said, drawing a line between the brutal bombardment of the strategic port city and Hungary’s past.
On Tuesday Ukraine, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said :Hungary says “no” to “virtually everything,” involving potential aid arguing that the “strategic calm” approach which Budapest is following is not far from an openly pro-Russian position.
The Hungarian Embassy went on to Reject the Accusation of Wanting Transcarpathia.
posted by adamvasco at 11:09 AM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
Orban Buzmeg la la la la la
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:12 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:12 AM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
Roman Abramovich has reportedly arrived in Poland, bringing back the older rumours that he might be a go-between for less official talks between Ukraine and the Russian establishment.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:14 AM on March 25, 2022
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:14 AM on March 25, 2022
Hungary: I guess 1956 was a long time ago.
posted by Slothrup at 11:15 AM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Slothrup at 11:15 AM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
From what I've read, the treaty of Trianon, and the existence of “Hungarian” land across its borders, has more weight on Orbán's position than 1956.
posted by acb at 11:28 AM on March 25, 2022
posted by acb at 11:28 AM on March 25, 2022
From what I've read, the treaty of Trianon, and the existence of “Hungarian” land across its borders, has more weight on Orbán's position than 1956.
Seriously? He wants Transcarpathia back? I mean, if he wants to get kicked out of NATO and for the next Article 7 vote by the EU to succeed I can think of no surer way to accomplish it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:46 AM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
Seriously? He wants Transcarpathia back? I mean, if he wants to get kicked out of NATO and for the next Article 7 vote by the EU to succeed I can think of no surer way to accomplish it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:46 AM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
Reuters: Russia states more limited war goal to 'liberate' Donbass
In a scaled-back formulation of its war goals, Russia said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation was mostly complete and it would focus on completely "liberating" Ukraine's breakaway eastern Donbass region.posted by snuffleupagus at 11:46 AM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
The announcement appeared to indicate that Moscow may be switching to more limited objectives after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in a month of war.
The defence ministry said Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Ukraine's Luhansk region and 54% of the Donetsk region. They jointly make up the Donbass.
"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said in a speech.
...
A senior diplomatic source in Moscow described it as a face-saving move and possible prelude to a climb-down by Russia...
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
Killed by friendly tire.
posted by nathan_teske at 11:59 AM on March 25, 2022 [36 favorites]
Killed by friendly tire.
posted by nathan_teske at 11:59 AM on March 25, 2022 [36 favorites]
The tweet mentioned here: Russian troops have begun fragging their COs reads quite like the event reported here after going through a few retweets.
Doesn't mean it didn't happen, but it shows what is likely to occur with insufficiently verified reports; witness that tweet being full of "we believe" phrasing.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:09 PM on March 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
Doesn't mean it didn't happen, but it shows what is likely to occur with insufficiently verified reports; witness that tweet being full of "we believe" phrasing.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:09 PM on March 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also, "a Russian troop fragged their CO" ≠ "Russian troops have begun fragging their COs".
posted by escape from the potato planet at 12:16 PM on March 25, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by escape from the potato planet at 12:16 PM on March 25, 2022 [8 favorites]
A group of folks in a Japanese restaurant playing and singing the anti-Putin Ukrainian song referenced above.
This was clearly the best party of all time, and we should be glad that a snippet of it was preserved for posterity.
posted by Kattullus at 12:18 PM on March 25, 2022 [13 favorites]
This was clearly the best party of all time, and we should be glad that a snippet of it was preserved for posterity.
posted by Kattullus at 12:18 PM on March 25, 2022 [13 favorites]
Saving Ukrainian Cultural Heritage Online. Linked from The other casualty of the war in Ukraine:
Overshadowed by the human toll of the war in Ukraine is another tragedy: The loss—potential and, in some cases, already realized—of historic monuments, architecture, artwork, and public squares.posted by adamg at 1:54 PM on March 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
This is the saddest moment when you find out the translation. A female Ukrainian soldier emerges from the smoking ruins of a Russian tank column they have destroyed and gives a report
posted by interogative mood at 2:18 PM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Woman: Ali is deadIn the background you can see other members of her unit gathering in circle. Allegedly they are saying their goodbyes to their fallen friend.
Man: Sad was it a tank?
Woman: Yes straight in his head, I can’t find his head
posted by interogative mood at 2:18 PM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
GodDAMN. That may be the most shocking thing to me.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:44 PM on March 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
GodDAMN. That may be the most shocking thing to me.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:44 PM on March 25, 2022 [1 favorite]
So many sad News. But Mr Kurkov's cat Pepin is happy (Link to cat photo in his twitter)
posted by 15L06 at 3:15 PM on March 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by 15L06 at 3:15 PM on March 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia is really cracking down on any form of critical thinking, clearly someone is unconcerned about the positive future of their country…
They're going to end up like the Chinese, having to run special schools for their censors and other government apparatchiks, where they teach all the history they've edited out of the school curriculum. Turns out it's hard to run an effective censorship regime if nobody knows the real story you're supposed to be suppressing.
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
The best part is, they didn't actually kill him. Just crushed his legs, supposedly. So he had to get medevaced all the way back to Belarus (indicating non-trivial injuries), which is much harder to hide than just another field-grade officer KIA, and it will continue to be. That's the kind of thing that seeps out into the public consciousness, even when you have very good press control.
posted by Kadin2048 at 3:23 PM on March 25, 2022 [13 favorites]
They're going to end up like the Chinese, having to run special schools for their censors and other government apparatchiks, where they teach all the history they've edited out of the school curriculum. Turns out it's hard to run an effective censorship regime if nobody knows the real story you're supposed to be suppressing.
Colonel Medvechek, commander of 37 Motor Rifle Brigade, was run over by his soldiers, the official said
The best part is, they didn't actually kill him. Just crushed his legs, supposedly. So he had to get medevaced all the way back to Belarus (indicating non-trivial injuries), which is much harder to hide than just another field-grade officer KIA, and it will continue to be. That's the kind of thing that seeps out into the public consciousness, even when you have very good press control.
posted by Kadin2048 at 3:23 PM on March 25, 2022 [13 favorites]
"Hi, how are you?" Diary of a Jewish-Ukrainian American During the Russia/Ukraine War of 2022 (Medium)
posted by Glinn at 3:24 PM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Glinn at 3:24 PM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
A female Ukrainian soldier emerges from the smoking ruins
A warning to be careful about picking heroes - deep in that thread user Unlucky13 identifies her as Vita Zaverukha. In their words:
A warning to be careful about picking heroes - deep in that thread user Unlucky13 identifies her as Vita Zaverukha. In their words:
Neo-Nazi militia member since 16. Full blown fascist. Also partially responsible for killing two police officers and injuring 3 more when her Nazi gang tried to rob a gas station robbery.posted by achrise at 3:27 PM on March 25, 2022 [13 favorites]
Various posts that touch on Russia's ability to adapt or improvise (strategically, tactically, etc) reminds me of a talk that was given at Caltech several years ago.
NASA/Apollo astronaut Rusty Schwiekert spoke about his experience experience in working with Russia's space program. One of his major takeaways was of their R and D. He mentioned that once a design, system, etc is authorized, it is rarely changed or deviated from for years. He compared this to NASA who he felt was always in a place of seeking innovation. Once a project was done, they moved onto its next iteration.
He implied then that he felt this was implicit in the larger culture for each country. It's fascinating to see how this is playing out in Ukraine
posted by goalyeehah at 3:32 PM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
NASA/Apollo astronaut Rusty Schwiekert spoke about his experience experience in working with Russia's space program. One of his major takeaways was of their R and D. He mentioned that once a design, system, etc is authorized, it is rarely changed or deviated from for years. He compared this to NASA who he felt was always in a place of seeking innovation. Once a project was done, they moved onto its next iteration.
He implied then that he felt this was implicit in the larger culture for each country. It's fascinating to see how this is playing out in Ukraine
posted by goalyeehah at 3:32 PM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
having to run special schools for their censors and other government apparatchiks, where they teach all the history they've edited out of the school curriculum.
Sadly, they have decades of experience with this sort of thing. For me one of the many heartbreaking effects of Putins insane war on Ukraine is that Russia is now imprisoned once more behind a deep Iron Curtain and the population at the not existing mercy of a tyrant.
posted by 15L06 at 3:53 PM on March 25, 2022 [8 favorites]
Sadly, they have decades of experience with this sort of thing. For me one of the many heartbreaking effects of Putins insane war on Ukraine is that Russia is now imprisoned once more behind a deep Iron Curtain and the population at the not existing mercy of a tyrant.
posted by 15L06 at 3:53 PM on March 25, 2022 [8 favorites]
A warning to be careful about picking heroes
I think that we should definitely largely not uncritically pick heroes; but also, we are not helping any Ukrainians by saying 'Hey, did you know this person was a Neo-Nazi' every time we see a soldier who once had ties to that existing - in this case, checking on a fallen friend. It plays into Russian propaganda, and more to the point, doesn't really benefit anyone. There's a war on; everyone is fighting in some way.
posted by corb at 4:38 PM on March 25, 2022 [22 favorites]
I think that we should definitely largely not uncritically pick heroes; but also, we are not helping any Ukrainians by saying 'Hey, did you know this person was a Neo-Nazi' every time we see a soldier who once had ties to that existing - in this case, checking on a fallen friend. It plays into Russian propaganda, and more to the point, doesn't really benefit anyone. There's a war on; everyone is fighting in some way.
posted by corb at 4:38 PM on March 25, 2022 [22 favorites]
I don't think there's a single military in the world that would pass any ethical purity test, doubly do for a desperate national guard.
posted by Dysk at 4:50 PM on March 25, 2022 [30 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 4:50 PM on March 25, 2022 [30 favorites]
Knowing she is a swastika-sporting fascist is surely encouraging me not to spread her image as an example of Ukrainian bravery tho.
I am not at all fond of the heroes/villains dichotomy; good acts/values/missions and despicable ones are not mutually exclusive. However, there's enough Ukrainian bravery going on to be all too glad to conscientiously sideline the occasional Nazi.
posted by droomoord at 4:55 PM on March 25, 2022 [36 favorites]
I am not at all fond of the heroes/villains dichotomy; good acts/values/missions and despicable ones are not mutually exclusive. However, there's enough Ukrainian bravery going on to be all too glad to conscientiously sideline the occasional Nazi.
posted by droomoord at 4:55 PM on March 25, 2022 [36 favorites]
French Diplomat Pierre Morcos on Twitter
This may be an expansion of the plan the Greek FM announced yesterday.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:01 PM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
🚨 Pres Macron just announced that 🇫🇷, together with 🇹🇷 and 🇬🇷, is planning an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to evacuate civilians from #Mariupol. Paris has been in contact with Mariupol's mayor and the 🇫🇷 President will discuss this issue with Putin "in the coming hours".Follows up with a link to the (French) press conference.
This may be an expansion of the plan the Greek FM announced yesterday.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:01 PM on March 25, 2022 [6 favorites]
Sadly, they have decades of experience with this sort of thing.
They've also had a generation and a half who have known freedom (of a sort) since the Soviet totalitarian order collapsed, and building the machinery of repression back up, and terrorising everybody into learned helplessness, will be easier said than done.
I don't doubt that Putin finds the ends desirable; I just am not sure that the means are within his reach.
posted by acb at 5:14 PM on March 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
They've also had a generation and a half who have known freedom (of a sort) since the Soviet totalitarian order collapsed, and building the machinery of repression back up, and terrorising everybody into learned helplessness, will be easier said than done.
I don't doubt that Putin finds the ends desirable; I just am not sure that the means are within his reach.
posted by acb at 5:14 PM on March 25, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukrainian Fighter Pilots Describe Their Desperate Air War Against Russia.
In a conflict that’s so far confounded many expectations, it’s no exaggeration to say that the performance of the Ukrainian Air Force in its response to Russia's invasion has been one of the more surprising aspects. Rather than being wiped out on the ground and in the air in the first few days of the war, as many had predicted, Ukrainian airpower has instead refused to buckle in the face of a much larger and technologically more advanced opponent
posted by adamvasco at 6:06 PM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
In a conflict that’s so far confounded many expectations, it’s no exaggeration to say that the performance of the Ukrainian Air Force in its response to Russia's invasion has been one of the more surprising aspects. Rather than being wiped out on the ground and in the air in the first few days of the war, as many had predicted, Ukrainian airpower has instead refused to buckle in the face of a much larger and technologically more advanced opponent
posted by adamvasco at 6:06 PM on March 25, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ukraine reaches breaking point in Russia’s war.
Longer piece from The Kyiv Independent's Illya Pomarenko, assessing what has transpired and the current situation. Certainly (understandably) written from an optimistic pro-Ukrainian POV, but still a good summary of where we are today (technically tomorrow since his dateline is into Saturday the 26th already).
posted by Kabanos at 6:17 PM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
Longer piece from The Kyiv Independent's Illya Pomarenko, assessing what has transpired and the current situation. Certainly (understandably) written from an optimistic pro-Ukrainian POV, but still a good summary of where we are today (technically tomorrow since his dateline is into Saturday the 26th already).
posted by Kabanos at 6:17 PM on March 25, 2022 [5 favorites]
There's a bunch of reports tonight like Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over. I don't know what to make of this. Is it misdirection, or a Putin version of "I totally meant to do that" that's an attempt to save face? Is Russia taking and keeping Donbas and then agreeing to peace terms even possible at this point? It sort of seems like they should give back Crimea and, I dunno, maybe give some of the northern and eastern parts of Russia back to indigenous peoples, then maybe agree to be a neutral state for good measure. Sorry, "just world" fantasy.
posted by freecellwizard at 6:22 PM on March 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 6:22 PM on March 25, 2022 [10 favorites]
From what I’ve been able to surmise. Vita Zaverukha joined a paramilitary organization when was 16. After the Euromaiden revolution and subsequent war with Russia/Russian backed Separatists she was among the people fighting in Donbas and was profiled in Elle magazine in 2014. This publicity lead to the photos on her VK profile doing Nazi shit being spread around. Following the war she and some of her former volunteers were arrested in 2015 as part of a criminal gang that had been involved in the robbery of a petrol station and two police officers getting killed. There were also allegations of her committing anti-Russians acts such as attacking a Jewish shopkeeper who was using Russian signage in his Deli in Odessa. These incidents were highlighted in the Daily Mail.
It seems that she is a controversial figure in Ukraine. i have not been able to find much in English about her since 2015.
Maybe she’s grown up and grown out of it since then; but i won’t be surprised if she hasn’t. I am under the impression that there was some effort in Ukraine to integrate the Azov paramilitaries and de-radicalize them.
posted by interogative mood at 8:08 PM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
It seems that she is a controversial figure in Ukraine. i have not been able to find much in English about her since 2015.
Maybe she’s grown up and grown out of it since then; but i won’t be surprised if she hasn’t. I am under the impression that there was some effort in Ukraine to integrate the Azov paramilitaries and de-radicalize them.
posted by interogative mood at 8:08 PM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
There's a bunch of reports tonight like Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over. I don't know what to make of this. Is it misdirection, or a Putin version of "I totally meant to do that" that's an attempt to save face? Is Russia taking and keeping Donbas and then agreeing to peace terms even possible at this point?
It's totally to save face. He's going to try and take and keep Donbas along with the Mariupol line to Crimea but that all depends on Mariupol falling and so far the defenders are basically daring him to send Russians into that meat grinder, hence that ultimatum that Putin set for Ukraine to surrender it by Monday 5am.
As for peace terms, I hope that UA doesn't give one inch of ground. Yes the Russians should give back Crimea. The problem is that the decision involves a lot of different factors other than what's right. For UA? Ending the war will save lives. Ending the war means the country can begin to rebuild. Ending the war means the people who have had their lives thrown into utter hell might finally begin to find light at the end of the tunnel. That should be for them to decide.
The difficult part is that a lot of the success of the UA is that the West has been funneling weapons that are immensely effective in fighting Russia's highly mechanized and motorized army on a scale we haven't seen since Lend Lease. If the West is done with war and won't send more weapons then the effective fighting strength of the UA army will drop. Sadly, I don't believe the West will give UA the chance to decide whether to fight for itself and will push heavily for the ceasing of all hostilities so they can begin the resumption of "normalcy" and begin to rehabilitate Putin. Scholz might as well be salivating at getting all that Russian energy back to "normal".
What would be the ideal conduct of the West in my eyes? Even if a treaty is signed there will be no sanctions removed until Russia is out of Donbas and Crimea. We're done. It ends here. No rehab, no normalcy, no fucking McDonalds until the last Russian boot is back over the border. Cease fire? The West continues to funnel shit-tons of equipment into Ukraine. Get weapons into the hands of people left under the de facto control of the Russians and bleed the occupiers dry with the most well funded and equipped insurgency the world has ever seen.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:26 PM on March 25, 2022 [24 favorites]
It's totally to save face. He's going to try and take and keep Donbas along with the Mariupol line to Crimea but that all depends on Mariupol falling and so far the defenders are basically daring him to send Russians into that meat grinder, hence that ultimatum that Putin set for Ukraine to surrender it by Monday 5am.
As for peace terms, I hope that UA doesn't give one inch of ground. Yes the Russians should give back Crimea. The problem is that the decision involves a lot of different factors other than what's right. For UA? Ending the war will save lives. Ending the war means the country can begin to rebuild. Ending the war means the people who have had their lives thrown into utter hell might finally begin to find light at the end of the tunnel. That should be for them to decide.
The difficult part is that a lot of the success of the UA is that the West has been funneling weapons that are immensely effective in fighting Russia's highly mechanized and motorized army on a scale we haven't seen since Lend Lease. If the West is done with war and won't send more weapons then the effective fighting strength of the UA army will drop. Sadly, I don't believe the West will give UA the chance to decide whether to fight for itself and will push heavily for the ceasing of all hostilities so they can begin the resumption of "normalcy" and begin to rehabilitate Putin. Scholz might as well be salivating at getting all that Russian energy back to "normal".
What would be the ideal conduct of the West in my eyes? Even if a treaty is signed there will be no sanctions removed until Russia is out of Donbas and Crimea. We're done. It ends here. No rehab, no normalcy, no fucking McDonalds until the last Russian boot is back over the border. Cease fire? The West continues to funnel shit-tons of equipment into Ukraine. Get weapons into the hands of people left under the de facto control of the Russians and bleed the occupiers dry with the most well funded and equipped insurgency the world has ever seen.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:26 PM on March 25, 2022 [24 favorites]
No just well equipped but it's a bit unprecedented. It's a proxy war but it's more or less Russia vs the whole rest of the world via Ukraine and it's all out in the open. I would imagine that in addition to all kinds of existing gear, the world's intelligence agencies will go to work devising simple and advanced gadgets and instructions for improvised who-knows-what. All the world's most devious minds put to work officially coming up with the most devious ways to help the Ukrainian people help themselves.
I really hope it can be over sooner than that. As much as it's just a ton of bad news for Vlad (I know that's not the proper short version and that's on purpose. HMPH!) it's also another reason it's all so senseless, everyone has already lost, and all that remains is to determine how much loss there will be and how it will be distributed.
posted by VTX at 8:46 PM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
I really hope it can be over sooner than that. As much as it's just a ton of bad news for Vlad (I know that's not the proper short version and that's on purpose. HMPH!) it's also another reason it's all so senseless, everyone has already lost, and all that remains is to determine how much loss there will be and how it will be distributed.
posted by VTX at 8:46 PM on March 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
Fuck all Nazis..
That being said, there's a lot of Nazis in the USA. If a hostile force was invading our country you might find yourself fighting alongside them despite the obvious moral differences.
What does this mean? War is hell. There are no simple answers. Ukraine is a giant country. There's a lot of different people with all kinds of different viewpoints there. Of course there's right-wing assholes. Every country has them.
I'd personally really appreciate a stop to the derail about the extreme nationalists in Ukraine. Yes, they're historically repugnant and we all hate them. They exist in every country. We all deal with them. Focusing on this minority does not help the Ukrainian people at large at this time.
When the war ends and the people are truly free we have time to destroy whatever mythos supports Azov and their ilk.
This is not meant to be argumentative... But every time this factor of Nazi Ukrainians gets brought up I quite frankly can't stop thinking of Trump supporters over here. Just give it a few years. What do you do in such a situation? They are evil and wrong but they are fighting the enemy who is bombing your children.
Sorry. I know this will be deleted. This whole situation is overwhelming and painful. I am not an apologist.
posted by SystematicAbuse at 9:32 PM on March 25, 2022 [58 favorites]
That being said, there's a lot of Nazis in the USA. If a hostile force was invading our country you might find yourself fighting alongside them despite the obvious moral differences.
What does this mean? War is hell. There are no simple answers. Ukraine is a giant country. There's a lot of different people with all kinds of different viewpoints there. Of course there's right-wing assholes. Every country has them.
I'd personally really appreciate a stop to the derail about the extreme nationalists in Ukraine. Yes, they're historically repugnant and we all hate them. They exist in every country. We all deal with them. Focusing on this minority does not help the Ukrainian people at large at this time.
When the war ends and the people are truly free we have time to destroy whatever mythos supports Azov and their ilk.
This is not meant to be argumentative... But every time this factor of Nazi Ukrainians gets brought up I quite frankly can't stop thinking of Trump supporters over here. Just give it a few years. What do you do in such a situation? They are evil and wrong but they are fighting the enemy who is bombing your children.
Sorry. I know this will be deleted. This whole situation is overwhelming and painful. I am not an apologist.
posted by SystematicAbuse at 9:32 PM on March 25, 2022 [58 favorites]
Leaving aside questions of purity tests, strange bedfellows, etc., I would very much appreciate being informed if someone in a war video from Ukraine is a notorious Nazi.
Like droomoord, I personally do not want to be spreading anything around that promotes sympathy for such an individual, only to find out later that they're a milkshake duck.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:33 AM on March 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
Like droomoord, I personally do not want to be spreading anything around that promotes sympathy for such an individual, only to find out later that they're a milkshake duck.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:33 AM on March 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'm more of the opinion that if we're going to celebrate a military, we should know that entails, warts and all. They're fighting a righteous fight and no doubt many of them are wonderful, but a lot of people drawn to picking up arms aren't people you necessarily want to associate with. Ukraine is no exception.
posted by Dysk at 12:37 AM on March 26, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 12:37 AM on March 26, 2022 [8 favorites]
(And this is how I square the circle of supporting the Ukrainian defense forces while being an anti-military pacifist: by not letting the necessity of the former lead to a whitewashing that betrays the latter, even if it would be more uncomplicated and comfortable)
posted by Dysk at 12:39 AM on March 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 12:39 AM on March 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
I think the expectation is more that if the situation gets unpleasant enough, the court could conspire to replace the king. It's not exactly unheard of in the history of kings.
Excerpting a comment I read elsewhere: who topples dictators/tyrants?
Not the oligarchs. They have money, a soft power, but not guns. And likely a bunch of henchmen, but not an organisation big and powerful enough to take control of the essential parts of the government. Not even when they band together, which won't be effective enough to stage a coup because they will sufficiently distrust each other to not become the next coup-plotter when not becoming the top dog.
Who has the power? Army. So as a dictator you're relatively safe if you have your power roots there. Putin is KGB, which is why he's neutered the army. Not, as it seems, by taking away their equipment, holding back modernisation and such, although he probably saw what happened in that area with a bit of hidden satisfaction. The real kicker would be disorganisation and internal distrust in the upper command levels. That's probably also why we've not seen an overall commander announced for the Ukraine invasion, like the Russians had for Chechnya and Afghanistan, for instance. Hence the lack of coordination between the various forces, and the logistical shambles. And Shoigyu? Not an army man, but as a friend of Putin a useful sensor measuring the potential for a coup.
How about FSB/KGB? He's had two top guys arrested, so the rest must be walking on eggshells and wondering what the others are thinking and who they still can trust. If you talk to someone, even someone you know well, are they going to agree that Putin is a liability, or are they going to rat on you? Can we keep the money flowing once Putin's gone, and make it not flow elsewhere?
Getting to the point that you can successfully get rid of Putin without taking yourself, Russia or even the entire world out in the process, will take a lot of time.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:03 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Excerpting a comment I read elsewhere: who topples dictators/tyrants?
Not the oligarchs. They have money, a soft power, but not guns. And likely a bunch of henchmen, but not an organisation big and powerful enough to take control of the essential parts of the government. Not even when they band together, which won't be effective enough to stage a coup because they will sufficiently distrust each other to not become the next coup-plotter when not becoming the top dog.
Who has the power? Army. So as a dictator you're relatively safe if you have your power roots there. Putin is KGB, which is why he's neutered the army. Not, as it seems, by taking away their equipment, holding back modernisation and such, although he probably saw what happened in that area with a bit of hidden satisfaction. The real kicker would be disorganisation and internal distrust in the upper command levels. That's probably also why we've not seen an overall commander announced for the Ukraine invasion, like the Russians had for Chechnya and Afghanistan, for instance. Hence the lack of coordination between the various forces, and the logistical shambles. And Shoigyu? Not an army man, but as a friend of Putin a useful sensor measuring the potential for a coup.
How about FSB/KGB? He's had two top guys arrested, so the rest must be walking on eggshells and wondering what the others are thinking and who they still can trust. If you talk to someone, even someone you know well, are they going to agree that Putin is a liability, or are they going to rat on you? Can we keep the money flowing once Putin's gone, and make it not flow elsewhere?
Getting to the point that you can successfully get rid of Putin without taking yourself, Russia or even the entire world out in the process, will take a lot of time.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:03 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
“A thread on morale in the Russian forces, and the impact on the forces of a culture of dedovshchina, which is an extreme form of hazing that new conscripts in the Russian forces are subjected to.” By Zoya Sheftalovich
It is interesting how the political cultures of both sides seem to be ending up shaping every detail of the military life on the ground. The Ukrainien strategy of allowing individual soldiers and units freedom to adapt as events unfold, would be unthinkable in Russia’s brutal command and control culture, I suspect.
posted by rongorongo at 1:11 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
It is interesting how the political cultures of both sides seem to be ending up shaping every detail of the military life on the ground. The Ukrainien strategy of allowing individual soldiers and units freedom to adapt as events unfold, would be unthinkable in Russia’s brutal command and control culture, I suspect.
posted by rongorongo at 1:11 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Mod note: A few deleted upthread. A request, please: Sites like Reddit or Twitter have sort of unlimited expansion to alight on a topic or subject and construct, deconstruct and reconstruct a narrative over hundreds or thousands of comments. This is not the case here, and choosing to showcase certain individuals as heroes, or choosing to showcase the takedown of same / other positively-noticed people takes on a much more outsized significance than it should and redirects responses and attention, and also serves to create some sort of storylike theme (Superhero Valiant Ukrainians? Or Nazi / Cryptonazi Ukrainians under every rock? ... neither is true as a one-size-fits-all national identity! Neither is actually helpful in understanding the facts as they emerge, as well as we can — which is always much slower, more effortful and much less satisfying work than attention-grabbing storytyme tales.) Generally, please try to avoid approaches that frame things as wartime theater in Mefi threads. We can't handle it, and there's plenty of it to be found and enjoyed elsewhere. Thank you.
posted by taz (staff) at 1:44 AM on March 26, 2022 [33 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 1:44 AM on March 26, 2022 [33 favorites]
There's a bunch of reports tonight like Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over. I don't know what to make of this. Is it misdirection, or a Putin version of "I totally meant to do that" that's an attempt to save face? Is Russia taking and keeping Donbas and then agreeing to peace terms even possible at this point? It sort of seems like they should give back Crimea and, I dunno, maybe give some of the northern and eastern parts of Russia back to indigenous peoples, then maybe agree to be a neutral state for good measure. Sorry, "just world" fantasy.
posted by freecellwizard at 6:22 PM on March 25 [7 favorites +] [!]
Having been watching all the propaganda talk shows and presidential speeches and talking to people here's my take on where the combined "info" is pointing. These official statements about phase one and now shifting focus to the east are a face saving measure to the rest of the world. volodya's speeches have been increasingly hostile towards the influence of the west and NATO and United States and sound like they are trying to drum up support for some kind of wider offensive or at least a necessity of mass total rejection of the ideals of the west, which are apparently all about "gender freedoms." Likewise, the talk shows have been reminding the country that we have nukes! It would be a shame to use them, but we are up against the oppressive weaponized gayness of the west that wants to dismantle our (white slavic orthodox) culture! There is also commentary prepping the population to accept longer term objectives to re-educate the Ukrainian population so that they lick russia's balls again, or at least aren't repulsed to arms over the idea. The official military stance of backing down and focusing on the east in Ukraine with the propagandic message that the west/NATO/US is the real big enemy that needs to be fought (on the ground and in the mind) tells me that vovka markofka wants to save face at home by trying to end the war with donbas as a part of russia and that of cooouuurrrse we were not trying to take all of Ukraine because they are a proxy of the west/NATO/US and we were not planning to fight that enemy now (but do prepare yourselves!). Naryshkin (head of intelligence services) referred to the enemies backing Ukraine as "totalitarian liberal regimes" as if it would be as heroic to defeat these ideals as it was to defeat nazism.
Statement to world = deescalation and focus on specific territory. Statement at home = escalate against the boogeyman.
In my personal opinion, if things were to end that way, sanctions should remain on russia, otherwise they will just prepare the next more isolated generation for some imperialistic endevor.
This is all to say, my dear Metafilter friends, that luxury gay space communism has been inflicting casualties on the minds of the ru ruling circle.
posted by WeekendJen at 2:29 AM on March 26, 2022 [53 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 6:22 PM on March 25 [7 favorites +] [!]
Having been watching all the propaganda talk shows and presidential speeches and talking to people here's my take on where the combined "info" is pointing. These official statements about phase one and now shifting focus to the east are a face saving measure to the rest of the world. volodya's speeches have been increasingly hostile towards the influence of the west and NATO and United States and sound like they are trying to drum up support for some kind of wider offensive or at least a necessity of mass total rejection of the ideals of the west, which are apparently all about "gender freedoms." Likewise, the talk shows have been reminding the country that we have nukes! It would be a shame to use them, but we are up against the oppressive weaponized gayness of the west that wants to dismantle our (white slavic orthodox) culture! There is also commentary prepping the population to accept longer term objectives to re-educate the Ukrainian population so that they lick russia's balls again, or at least aren't repulsed to arms over the idea. The official military stance of backing down and focusing on the east in Ukraine with the propagandic message that the west/NATO/US is the real big enemy that needs to be fought (on the ground and in the mind) tells me that vovka markofka wants to save face at home by trying to end the war with donbas as a part of russia and that of cooouuurrrse we were not trying to take all of Ukraine because they are a proxy of the west/NATO/US and we were not planning to fight that enemy now (but do prepare yourselves!). Naryshkin (head of intelligence services) referred to the enemies backing Ukraine as "totalitarian liberal regimes" as if it would be as heroic to defeat these ideals as it was to defeat nazism.
Statement to world = deescalation and focus on specific territory. Statement at home = escalate against the boogeyman.
In my personal opinion, if things were to end that way, sanctions should remain on russia, otherwise they will just prepare the next more isolated generation for some imperialistic endevor.
This is all to say, my dear Metafilter friends, that luxury gay space communism has been inflicting casualties on the minds of the ru ruling circle.
posted by WeekendJen at 2:29 AM on March 26, 2022 [53 favorites]
Uplifting cat and dog tax, albeit from before the Russian invasion.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:42 AM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 2:42 AM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
I love collecting dog tax. My only real friends here are the street dogs. They know me and my dog and I give them treats and in turn the walk with me to the store or whatever and it actually makes me feel safe. They know who is mean to them and who is nice to them and their filters are pretty fine tuned so I trust them. Good boys and girls know no national affiliation.
Long skippable comment ahead, about my ru naturalization while all this is going on.
As I at some point mentioned, I was naturalized last week. this is something I was pursuing after residence at the urging of my MIL just to make family beauracracy / travel/ etc easier (definitely not for idealogical reasons). Anyway, my final interview held in home coincided with the day the invasion started. It was pretty basic stuff, like just confirming the validity of my family. Then the conversation turned to my societal integration, and was I interested in working. The implication was that I could be handed some sort of job that would be some soft thing to promote in propaganda. Look, we are doing fine, here's a ru friendly white girl from the US. That's right, she chose us over them! I sort of (intentionally) disappointed them when I said that I would like to work with animals, maybe at the zoo, or a shelter, or as some sort of assistant at the vet clinic (there are govt subsidized vet clinics). Before leaving, they said they would call some time after 2 weeks had passed with info on when the ceremony would be. you see they had to put a group together, a nice group you know, no Kyrgz or Tajik or anything like that. Some regular people. Because news would be there! Oh, and they will want to get an interview from YOU!
So anyway as the invasion continued on, I was hoping that my whole ceremony thing would just be postponed indefinitely until things stabilized and reversed, but of course the hole just kept getting dug deeper. I was terrified that maybe I would be targeted or interrogated for some suspicion just based on being american. Then I got the call for the ceremony. Now I was super terrified. First I thought, what if it's a set up? Should I even go? Would not going raise suspicion? What if they separate us candidates for questioning before the ceremony? And I don't want to do a forced interview and be used as a piece of promotion for the regime.
Ultimately we decided to just go because we thought backing out at this point would be more suspicious (we had started this process almost a year ago) and that I need to get a russian foreign travel passport ASAP to keep our options open as far as....going on some extended trip as a family. We discussed how to handle the whole news interview thing and just decided we would stick to a simple script about how i came here with my fiance, got married, and now here we have been (which is true). And decline to answer questions about anything else.
Nota bene - my spoken language skills are very poor. I don't have much opportunity to speak to others, and most of my self learning is reading, writing and listening, so when I go to speak sometimes it's just like doing tongue twisters. Because of this I memorized and practiced reciting the oath so I wouldn't stand out as a total idiot.
I was still extremely terrified and nervous when I arrived to the building for the ceremony and I left my phone in the glovebox so that it wouldn't be searched in the building. Luckily, once inside my fear quickly diminished as I approached the 2 officers that were running the ceremony. The first them they asked the (5) candidates was "can you read russian?" Immediately that told me that they are used to getting people who don't know the language and passing them through anyway. The other candidates consisted of an older woman who appeared to be a native speaker and 3 central asian looking men, 2 of whom were also not great with the language. The ceremony leaders explained how the ceremony would go and then we were sat in the room. Everything was pretty smooth and unremarkable, more or less how I would expect such a thing to be anywhere else. There were 2 photographers there taking some pics and recording clips. When the ceremony was over we just tried to go quickly to the door and leave without doing a separate interview, but they caught me (and only me, everyone else was allowed to leave).
They passed the questions by me before recording and they were basic an unintrusive. I was still a little bummed because I know even my simple presence could be used for propaganda. but anyway I answered the questions which were basically "what brought you here?", "was your process difficult?", "what was your experience during the pandemic?" and lastly they asked me to say that today was a good day because I was naturalized. My poor language skills and the fact that I was wearing a mask allowed me to get away with mumbling and making this basically unusable audio. Once that was done, the officer that had come to the house caught me in the hall to confirm I did the interview. At this point it seemed that it was not for propaganda per se, but to include in something to like show his boss during a performance review, so I was sort of relieved about that too.
Two days later the local news made a post on vkontakt that a housewife from the US had become a Russian citizen and it had a picture of me saying the oath (albeit with a mask on). The housewife part may have been a slight jab at me, as I had told the officer at my house that in the US I had a decent skilled job that I had worked pretty hard to attain and was a bit sad to give it up to move. I'd link the post here, bu tit has my full name and I generally try to keep a low profile online. If anyone is interested in seeing it I can dm it.
Anyway the post was open for comments, most said malodetz (congratulations) one said "now she can stand in line with us for buckwheat and sugar, a bold move" one said "so what who cares lots of americans get citizenship" and one wrote some long poetic thing about the power of love to overcome countries boundaries (the post mentions my husband and children).
So all in all, definitely not as scary as I thought it would be, most local procedures seem to just keep proceduring on. Might have been used as a larger piece of propaganda is I was more naive or into it.
posted by WeekendJen at 3:41 AM on March 26, 2022 [85 favorites]
Long skippable comment ahead, about my ru naturalization while all this is going on.
As I at some point mentioned, I was naturalized last week. this is something I was pursuing after residence at the urging of my MIL just to make family beauracracy / travel/ etc easier (definitely not for idealogical reasons). Anyway, my final interview held in home coincided with the day the invasion started. It was pretty basic stuff, like just confirming the validity of my family. Then the conversation turned to my societal integration, and was I interested in working. The implication was that I could be handed some sort of job that would be some soft thing to promote in propaganda. Look, we are doing fine, here's a ru friendly white girl from the US. That's right, she chose us over them! I sort of (intentionally) disappointed them when I said that I would like to work with animals, maybe at the zoo, or a shelter, or as some sort of assistant at the vet clinic (there are govt subsidized vet clinics). Before leaving, they said they would call some time after 2 weeks had passed with info on when the ceremony would be. you see they had to put a group together, a nice group you know, no Kyrgz or Tajik or anything like that. Some regular people. Because news would be there! Oh, and they will want to get an interview from YOU!
So anyway as the invasion continued on, I was hoping that my whole ceremony thing would just be postponed indefinitely until things stabilized and reversed, but of course the hole just kept getting dug deeper. I was terrified that maybe I would be targeted or interrogated for some suspicion just based on being american. Then I got the call for the ceremony. Now I was super terrified. First I thought, what if it's a set up? Should I even go? Would not going raise suspicion? What if they separate us candidates for questioning before the ceremony? And I don't want to do a forced interview and be used as a piece of promotion for the regime.
Ultimately we decided to just go because we thought backing out at this point would be more suspicious (we had started this process almost a year ago) and that I need to get a russian foreign travel passport ASAP to keep our options open as far as....going on some extended trip as a family. We discussed how to handle the whole news interview thing and just decided we would stick to a simple script about how i came here with my fiance, got married, and now here we have been (which is true). And decline to answer questions about anything else.
Nota bene - my spoken language skills are very poor. I don't have much opportunity to speak to others, and most of my self learning is reading, writing and listening, so when I go to speak sometimes it's just like doing tongue twisters. Because of this I memorized and practiced reciting the oath so I wouldn't stand out as a total idiot.
I was still extremely terrified and nervous when I arrived to the building for the ceremony and I left my phone in the glovebox so that it wouldn't be searched in the building. Luckily, once inside my fear quickly diminished as I approached the 2 officers that were running the ceremony. The first them they asked the (5) candidates was "can you read russian?" Immediately that told me that they are used to getting people who don't know the language and passing them through anyway. The other candidates consisted of an older woman who appeared to be a native speaker and 3 central asian looking men, 2 of whom were also not great with the language. The ceremony leaders explained how the ceremony would go and then we were sat in the room. Everything was pretty smooth and unremarkable, more or less how I would expect such a thing to be anywhere else. There were 2 photographers there taking some pics and recording clips. When the ceremony was over we just tried to go quickly to the door and leave without doing a separate interview, but they caught me (and only me, everyone else was allowed to leave).
They passed the questions by me before recording and they were basic an unintrusive. I was still a little bummed because I know even my simple presence could be used for propaganda. but anyway I answered the questions which were basically "what brought you here?", "was your process difficult?", "what was your experience during the pandemic?" and lastly they asked me to say that today was a good day because I was naturalized. My poor language skills and the fact that I was wearing a mask allowed me to get away with mumbling and making this basically unusable audio. Once that was done, the officer that had come to the house caught me in the hall to confirm I did the interview. At this point it seemed that it was not for propaganda per se, but to include in something to like show his boss during a performance review, so I was sort of relieved about that too.
Two days later the local news made a post on vkontakt that a housewife from the US had become a Russian citizen and it had a picture of me saying the oath (albeit with a mask on). The housewife part may have been a slight jab at me, as I had told the officer at my house that in the US I had a decent skilled job that I had worked pretty hard to attain and was a bit sad to give it up to move. I'd link the post here, bu tit has my full name and I generally try to keep a low profile online. If anyone is interested in seeing it I can dm it.
Anyway the post was open for comments, most said malodetz (congratulations) one said "now she can stand in line with us for buckwheat and sugar, a bold move" one said "so what who cares lots of americans get citizenship" and one wrote some long poetic thing about the power of love to overcome countries boundaries (the post mentions my husband and children).
So all in all, definitely not as scary as I thought it would be, most local procedures seem to just keep proceduring on. Might have been used as a larger piece of propaganda is I was more naive or into it.
posted by WeekendJen at 3:41 AM on March 26, 2022 [85 favorites]
'I'm very happy that now the world has heard my voice, a voice for Ukraine': i24NEWS speaks to Valentina Verska, the Ukrainian refugee who won the Jerusalem marathon, and to her husband, who remains in the war-ravaged country, fighting against the Russians.
Ukrainian Refugee Who Fled War Wins Jerusalem Marathon (newsweek)
They got the supportive husband before the race and he's talking about his hopes for her and how he can't wait for the results. Well he must know by now, she won! She won carrying the Ukrainian flag! It can't be easy, he has to stay behind and fight and she has a race to win. She did it!
I hope she keeps winning marathons around the world carrying that flag.
She's a refugee and she's awesome. I love it when refugees turn out to be the best of the best, there's too much horseshit about what an onerous burden these people are. She's a credit to Ukraine and any country would be lucky to have her.
posted by adept256 at 4:22 AM on March 26, 2022 [18 favorites]
Ukrainian Refugee Who Fled War Wins Jerusalem Marathon (newsweek)
They got the supportive husband before the race and he's talking about his hopes for her and how he can't wait for the results. Well he must know by now, she won! She won carrying the Ukrainian flag! It can't be easy, he has to stay behind and fight and she has a race to win. She did it!
I hope she keeps winning marathons around the world carrying that flag.
She's a refugee and she's awesome. I love it when refugees turn out to be the best of the best, there's too much horseshit about what an onerous burden these people are. She's a credit to Ukraine and any country would be lucky to have her.
posted by adept256 at 4:22 AM on March 26, 2022 [18 favorites]
Congratulations WeekendJen, getting through that process in any country is bureaucratic grind. We should celebrate diversity and remember we are not at war with the citizens but the few "leaders" that are abusing citizens of every country when initiating war.
posted by sammyo at 5:01 AM on March 26, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 5:01 AM on March 26, 2022 [17 favorites]
Historian Olesya Khromeychuk: We are fighting for the right to have a future
(English version of »Wir kämpfen für das Recht, eine Zukunft zu haben«, Der Spiegel, 23 March 2022.)
On the tendency of many outside of Eastern Europe to understand the region only through a Russian perspective:
"Many Ukraine experts have spent their careers pointing out the ubiquitous basic errors about Ukraine in academic discourse and the popular imagination, risking being perceived much like an ‘angry woman’ who constantly criticises patriarchy in a room full of men who do not understand what her problem is."
posted by Kabanos at 5:37 AM on March 26, 2022 [26 favorites]
(English version of »Wir kämpfen für das Recht, eine Zukunft zu haben«, Der Spiegel, 23 March 2022.)
On the tendency of many outside of Eastern Europe to understand the region only through a Russian perspective:
"Many Ukraine experts have spent their careers pointing out the ubiquitous basic errors about Ukraine in academic discourse and the popular imagination, risking being perceived much like an ‘angry woman’ who constantly criticises patriarchy in a room full of men who do not understand what her problem is."
posted by Kabanos at 5:37 AM on March 26, 2022 [26 favorites]
I don't know if coup musings are helpful, but you'd expect that sufficiently large factions within the different stakeholding arms would have to somehow align themselves, and that's part of what makes it so difficult in an atmosphere of mistrust and the fatal risks involved. The oligarchs may not hold power directly, but they hold the money -- not just their money. Who they cooperate with matters. Coup planners with no one to cooperate with in the security services would seem a lot more likely to be detected and killed before getting too far. And I presume control over the security services is also important for keeping the oligarchs in line and making sure they don't decide to stop answering the phone or coughing up assets they're hiding on command when needed.
It's a mafia state. The problem is the mafioso is also in charge of a doomsday rocket force.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:59 AM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's a mafia state. The problem is the mafioso is also in charge of a doomsday rocket force.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:59 AM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Congratulations on completing your naturalization, WeekendJen, and than you for writing that up, it was interesting to read.
I'd be happy to be wrong, but I don't think there is much danger of a coup while the war is still going on. Most people are going to be patriots, whether or not they like the leader, and that would make it harder to upend the cart in the middle of things. Once it is over is when the danger for Putin would potentially come.
There's a bunch of reports tonight like Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over.
The ISW's March 25 assessment of the situation claimed that "Rudskoi’s comments were likely aimed mainly at a domestic Russian audience and do not accurately or completely capture current Russian war aims and planned operations."
And, that "Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine have not stopped fighting and have not entirely stopped attempting to advance and seize more territory. They are also attacking and destroying Ukrainian towns and cities, conducting operations and committing war crimes that do not accord with the objectives Rudskoi claims Russia is pursuing."
I still think it is very significant that they are starting to publicly walk back some of the objectives (and shows how poorly things are going for the Russians); whether or not it is also reflected in the negotiations and in the operations on the ground is the real question.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:30 AM on March 26, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'd be happy to be wrong, but I don't think there is much danger of a coup while the war is still going on. Most people are going to be patriots, whether or not they like the leader, and that would make it harder to upend the cart in the middle of things. Once it is over is when the danger for Putin would potentially come.
There's a bunch of reports tonight like Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over.
The ISW's March 25 assessment of the situation claimed that "Rudskoi’s comments were likely aimed mainly at a domestic Russian audience and do not accurately or completely capture current Russian war aims and planned operations."
And, that "Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine have not stopped fighting and have not entirely stopped attempting to advance and seize more territory. They are also attacking and destroying Ukrainian towns and cities, conducting operations and committing war crimes that do not accord with the objectives Rudskoi claims Russia is pursuing."
I still think it is very significant that they are starting to publicly walk back some of the objectives (and shows how poorly things are going for the Russians); whether or not it is also reflected in the negotiations and in the operations on the ground is the real question.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:30 AM on March 26, 2022 [8 favorites]
Once it is over is when the danger for Putin would potentially come.
The logical extension of this is “It will never be over because Putin knows that.”
I think the fighting in Ukraine ends when:
1) Putin dies on his own, or
2) Russia’s economy collapses to the point that either:
2a) Even the by-then-exhausted Ukrainians can roll over whatever scraps the Russians are capable of fielding, or
2b) Even the Russian secret police state gets fed up with the mess, and mutinies.
And then the war moves back home to Russia as the power struggles / breakaway fiefdoms get underway. Which is probably an even worse mess than Ukraine, but at least it stops happening TO Ukraine, who definitely didn’t ask for any of this shit to happen to them.
posted by notoriety public at 6:49 AM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
The logical extension of this is “It will never be over because Putin knows that.”
I think the fighting in Ukraine ends when:
1) Putin dies on his own, or
2) Russia’s economy collapses to the point that either:
2a) Even the by-then-exhausted Ukrainians can roll over whatever scraps the Russians are capable of fielding, or
2b) Even the Russian secret police state gets fed up with the mess, and mutinies.
And then the war moves back home to Russia as the power struggles / breakaway fiefdoms get underway. Which is probably an even worse mess than Ukraine, but at least it stops happening TO Ukraine, who definitely didn’t ask for any of this shit to happen to them.
posted by notoriety public at 6:49 AM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
And then the war moves back home to Russia as the power struggles / breakaway fiefdoms get underway.
This Caspian Report video was released in June 2021 and at the time I couldn't figure out what it was doing on a channel that seemed to focus on more imminent issues.
What would happen if Russia collapsed?
Given the date it doesn't get into any specific scenarios about Putin losing power; more historically minded but still interesting. It does foreshadow some of what's going on now in its review of Russia's actions in Georgia and Crimea.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:39 AM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
This Caspian Report video was released in June 2021 and at the time I couldn't figure out what it was doing on a channel that seemed to focus on more imminent issues.
What would happen if Russia collapsed?
Given the date it doesn't get into any specific scenarios about Putin losing power; more historically minded but still interesting. It does foreshadow some of what's going on now in its review of Russia's actions in Georgia and Crimea.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:39 AM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Shoigu Watch:
FT's max seddon on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:44 AM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
FT's max seddon on Twitter
It took two weeks, but Russia has finally released a slightly more convincing proof-of-life video of Sergei Shoigu after the defense minister vanished without explanationIncludes video.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:44 AM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
And then the war moves back home to Russia as the power struggles / breakaway fiefdoms get underway. Which is probably an even worse mess than Ukraine, but at least it stops happening TO Ukraine, who definitely didn’t ask for any of this shit to happen to them.
Nagorno-Karabakh is starting to flare up again with the drawdown of Russian forces from Armenia to reinforce the front in Ukraine. While the West sees territorial integrity of Azerbaijan to be paramount, if the Azerbaijanis own propaganda is to be believed, they will slaughter the ethnic Armenians there who also make up the overwhelming majority of the population. Azerbaijan also refuses to recognize the Armenian genocide for what it's worth.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:59 AM on March 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
Nagorno-Karabakh is starting to flare up again with the drawdown of Russian forces from Armenia to reinforce the front in Ukraine. While the West sees territorial integrity of Azerbaijan to be paramount, if the Azerbaijanis own propaganda is to be believed, they will slaughter the ethnic Armenians there who also make up the overwhelming majority of the population. Azerbaijan also refuses to recognize the Armenian genocide for what it's worth.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:59 AM on March 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
Now Russia is recruiting soldiers from South Ossetia. How long before Georgia attacks to retake that territory?
posted by ocschwar at 8:06 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 8:06 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Zelenskyy savages Orbán in his address to the EU summit.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:21 AM on March 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:21 AM on March 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
Paula Erizanu: A small country with a big heart
"Since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 370,000 Ukrainians have crossed the Moldovan border. About 100,000 Ukrainian refugees have decided to stay in the small country, half of them children, increasing Moldova's population by 4%."
"... every eighth child in Moldova is now Ukrainian ..."
posted by Kabanos at 8:36 AM on March 26, 2022 [18 favorites]
"Since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 370,000 Ukrainians have crossed the Moldovan border. About 100,000 Ukrainian refugees have decided to stay in the small country, half of them children, increasing Moldova's population by 4%."
"... every eighth child in Moldova is now Ukrainian ..."
posted by Kabanos at 8:36 AM on March 26, 2022 [18 favorites]
Now Russia is recruiting soldiers from South Ossetia. How long before Georgia attacks to retake that territory?
And, in that event, would its International Brigade (currently in Ukraine) participate?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:46 AM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
And, in that event, would its International Brigade (currently in Ukraine) participate?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:46 AM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
Speaking of small countries, Estonia (pop. 1,3m) has donated 220MEUR worth of military equipment to UKR. That is 3rd largest donation after US (pop 330m) and UK (pop 67m). Estonia also has welcomed more than 20K people fleeing from war (almost 2% of total population). Please keep up the pace, dear EU!
Also, Estonia has given six times more military aid to Ukraine than Germany has. The German economy is 65 times larger than Estonia’s.
I used to think Germany had done a reasonable job of righting itself.
posted by vers at 8:46 AM on March 26, 2022 [27 favorites]
Also, Estonia has given six times more military aid to Ukraine than Germany has. The German economy is 65 times larger than Estonia’s.
I used to think Germany had done a reasonable job of righting itself.
posted by vers at 8:46 AM on March 26, 2022 [27 favorites]
I don't know how much military aid Germany has to give. They're chronically underfunded on that front.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:11 AM on March 26, 2022
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:11 AM on March 26, 2022
There's also the possibility of clandestine activity when it comes to shifting military material or providing tacit operational support. We've already seen over-publicized efforts stymied. I think everyone pretty much assumes there's at least some level of NATO AWACS support; that won't all be USAF.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:17 AM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:17 AM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Here's the memorial Zalensky was referencing in that savages Orban video about "Shoes along the river" in Budapest
posted by achrise at 9:26 AM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by achrise at 9:26 AM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Ukrainien strategy of allowing individual soldiers and units freedom to adapt as events unfold, would be unthinkable in Russia’s brutal command and control culture, I suspect.
An article I read yesterday or the day before, linked from here (although I can't find it ATM), noted the difference between Western military forces and the Russian army. In the West, battlegroups are given an objective and they are quite free to figure out how to achieve that. Which means the tactics used get decided by COs close to, or even involved in the action, and can be rapidly adapted when the situation changes. Russian forces are command-driven, "You are to do X at time Y". Witness tanks moving forward into built-up areas even when the required infantry support has not arrived yet, and getting ambushed.
Starting 2014, the Ukrainian army has been extensively trained by the West.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:41 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
An article I read yesterday or the day before, linked from here (although I can't find it ATM), noted the difference between Western military forces and the Russian army. In the West, battlegroups are given an objective and they are quite free to figure out how to achieve that. Which means the tactics used get decided by COs close to, or even involved in the action, and can be rapidly adapted when the situation changes. Russian forces are command-driven, "You are to do X at time Y". Witness tanks moving forward into built-up areas even when the required infantry support has not arrived yet, and getting ambushed.
Starting 2014, the Ukrainian army has been extensively trained by the West.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:41 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
It was this Atlantic article.
1420 is out with a new video this morning:
What do Russians think now? 1 month after the start.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:45 AM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
1420 is out with a new video this morning:
What do Russians think now? 1 month after the start.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:45 AM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Re tactics differences, it really goes way back - Ukrainian Cossacks were always crack troops anywhere they took a contract (which, natch, tended to be any of the surrounding empires) because they were unpredictable. The secondary meaning of "kozak" in Polish is "badass", with an emphasis on fey bravery and larger-than-life actions like... nicking a tank with a tractor. "Kozacka fantazja" and "ułańska fantazja" are two interchangeable phrases for that attitude, where "ułańska" relates to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth's cavalry units that were initially recruited from Tatars settled on the Polish-Lithuanian border. It's a radically different historical precedent and attitude from the Russian army traditions of torture, conscription and marching on because the okhrana agent / political officer is bringing up the rear with a whip or a gun.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:55 AM on March 26, 2022 [28 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:55 AM on March 26, 2022 [28 favorites]
Don't underestimate General Corruption:
Former Ukrainian journalist/soldier Victor Kovalenko on Twitter
Former Ukrainian journalist/soldier Victor Kovalenko on Twitter
The Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in #Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from the storages because optics, electronics, engine parts on the majority of them were stolen. Source: Intel. Dept. of Ukr. MoD.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:38 AM on March 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
According to the Intel. Dept. of #Ukraine MoD, only 1 out of 10 battle tanks in the storages of the 4th #Russian tank division is battle-ready. Because of this, a commander of the 13th regiment of the 4th Rus. tank division committed suicide.
Humor break. Twitter user @AndrejNkv goes all Gilbert and Sullivan on the Russians.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:00 AM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:00 AM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
Also, Estonia has given six times more military aid to Ukraine than Germany has. The German economy is 65 times larger than Estonia’s.
In addition to that we don't know what military aid is happening outside the headlines, part of the issue with NATO support for Ukraine is that their army is still fundamentally equipped with Soviet-era arms; for example, the T-64 from the 60s is the most common Ukrainian main battle tank, though the active service ones have been substantially upgraded to either Bulat or T-64BV standard (modern engines, gun, reactive armour, satnav, thermal scopes etc) in Ukrainian factories. You can't just send a trainload of German Leopard 2s or US Abrams as they're not trained to use or service them, and they don't have the ammunition or parts that go with them. That goes even more so for NATO jets vs older MIG variants, and big NATO missile systems, etc etc.
But for former soviet satellites, they still have plenty of old soviet gear, including some modernised stuff they literally bought from Ukraine, so they have more 'big' kit to give that the Ukrainians can actually use.
Modern NATO MANPADs and AT missiles on the other hand are quick to learn, easy to supply in bulk and have proved very deadly to Russian formations (especially those operating without infantry support), and beefed up short range air defences - but also aren't that expensive, relatively.
The problem the Ukrainians have is they're significantly outmatched by Russian missile batteries which are bombarding the cities and army, along with artillery, and some air missions at night (the Ukrainian air/missile defences are much less effective at night). Without air superiority the Ukrainians just don't have sufficient capability to reach out and push back the long-range missile and artillery platforms murdering civilians, and that is not a quick problem to solve. More MIGs from Poland wouldn't help that much as Russian long-range air defences are very functional now they're dug in; you'd need a LOT of cruise missiles and/or ballistic missile launchers first, which are based on e.g. US ships, and batteries in eastern Europe.
And given both can carry nuclear warheads, the radar signature of lots of NATO missiles flying at Russian forces (including Russian ships in the black sea and systems firing from Russia) to really help Ukraine on the ground right now is a huge can of worms the west doesn't want to open for obvious reasons.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:19 AM on March 26, 2022 [19 favorites]
In addition to that we don't know what military aid is happening outside the headlines, part of the issue with NATO support for Ukraine is that their army is still fundamentally equipped with Soviet-era arms; for example, the T-64 from the 60s is the most common Ukrainian main battle tank, though the active service ones have been substantially upgraded to either Bulat or T-64BV standard (modern engines, gun, reactive armour, satnav, thermal scopes etc) in Ukrainian factories. You can't just send a trainload of German Leopard 2s or US Abrams as they're not trained to use or service them, and they don't have the ammunition or parts that go with them. That goes even more so for NATO jets vs older MIG variants, and big NATO missile systems, etc etc.
But for former soviet satellites, they still have plenty of old soviet gear, including some modernised stuff they literally bought from Ukraine, so they have more 'big' kit to give that the Ukrainians can actually use.
Modern NATO MANPADs and AT missiles on the other hand are quick to learn, easy to supply in bulk and have proved very deadly to Russian formations (especially those operating without infantry support), and beefed up short range air defences - but also aren't that expensive, relatively.
The problem the Ukrainians have is they're significantly outmatched by Russian missile batteries which are bombarding the cities and army, along with artillery, and some air missions at night (the Ukrainian air/missile defences are much less effective at night). Without air superiority the Ukrainians just don't have sufficient capability to reach out and push back the long-range missile and artillery platforms murdering civilians, and that is not a quick problem to solve. More MIGs from Poland wouldn't help that much as Russian long-range air defences are very functional now they're dug in; you'd need a LOT of cruise missiles and/or ballistic missile launchers first, which are based on e.g. US ships, and batteries in eastern Europe.
And given both can carry nuclear warheads, the radar signature of lots of NATO missiles flying at Russian forces (including Russian ships in the black sea and systems firing from Russia) to really help Ukraine on the ground right now is a huge can of worms the west doesn't want to open for obvious reasons.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:19 AM on March 26, 2022 [19 favorites]
AP: Biden on Russia's Putin: `This man cannot remain in power'
“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.,” Biden’s said at the very end of a speech in Poland’s capital that served as the capstone on a four-day trip to Europe.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:44 AM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Biden has frequently talked about ensuring that the Kremlin’s now two-month invasion becomes a “strategic failure” for Putin and has described the Russian leader as a “war criminal.” But until his remarks in Warsaw, the American leader had not said that Putin should not run Russia. Earlier on Saturday, shortly after meeting with Ukrainian refugees, Biden called Putin a “butcher.”
you'd need a LOT of cruise missiles and/or ballistic missile launchers first, which are based on e.g. US ships, and batteries in eastern Europe.
The Bayraktars purportedly have a 6000km range (really, it's about loiter time). But there are all sorts of practical issues with trying to employ them over long ranges as penetrators. Still, maybe it will be tried if the US supply of Switchblades for close use frees some of them up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:48 AM on March 26, 2022
The Bayraktars purportedly have a 6000km range (really, it's about loiter time). But there are all sorts of practical issues with trying to employ them over long ranges as penetrators. Still, maybe it will be tried if the US supply of Switchblades for close use frees some of them up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:48 AM on March 26, 2022
Snuffleupagus: that wasn't the article I read (a longform article by a lecturer or analyst at some defense institute), but the one in your link makes substantially the same point.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:52 AM on March 26, 2022
posted by Stoneshop at 11:52 AM on March 26, 2022
AP: Biden on Russia's Putin: `This man cannot remain in power'
Can someone smarter than me explain why this wasn’t a colossally dumb thing to say?
posted by saturday_morning at 12:25 PM on March 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
Can someone smarter than me explain why this wasn’t a colossally dumb thing to say?
posted by saturday_morning at 12:25 PM on March 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
I just watched Biden's speech. Essentially his last line being D[epose]TMFA is the bright object you'll see in the clips, but it was great to hear him talk about energy independence with clean renewables. I'm seeing people talk about Venezuela and Qatar as alternatives, these aren't great alternatives!
They don't want to be embarrassed by paying petrofascists, I don't want the planet to die, finally we can work together. Whatever makes them come around I guess.
Anyhow, him throwing that line out at the end? I wonder if that was in the written speech, or Joe just (for god's sake!) saying what everyone's thinking. We're all thinking that right?
posted by adept256 at 12:29 PM on March 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
They don't want to be embarrassed by paying petrofascists, I don't want the planet to die, finally we can work together. Whatever makes them come around I guess.
Anyhow, him throwing that line out at the end? I wonder if that was in the written speech, or Joe just (for god's sake!) saying what everyone's thinking. We're all thinking that right?
posted by adept256 at 12:29 PM on March 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
colossally dumb thing to say?
It's just expressing what many in the world are thinking. It can't have a direct effect on Putin who clearly does not want to start WWIII with NATO or it'd be Polish and German cities that are be being attacked. And if there is regime change for whatever reason, he'll get credit.
posted by sammyo at 12:34 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
It's just expressing what many in the world are thinking. It can't have a direct effect on Putin who clearly does not want to start WWIII with NATO or it'd be Polish and German cities that are be being attacked. And if there is regime change for whatever reason, he'll get credit.
posted by sammyo at 12:34 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Explicit US policy of regime change doesn't have a great track record. This speech makes me nervous.
posted by St. Oops at 12:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 12:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [15 favorites]
It can't have a direct effect on Putin who clearly does not want to start WWIII with NATO or it'd be Polish and German cities that are be being attacked.
Not even Polish or German cities. Ida-Viru is over three quarters Russian and right on the border of the Leningrad Oblast right over the Narva river. Estonia has a total population of 1.3 million. If there was ever a justification on the basis of a majority ethnic Russian speaking population being reunited with the motherland, the biggest CB all would be Ida-Viru. Why doesn't Putin try his salami tactic on Ida-Viru? Because if Putin's LGM showed up in Narva and started any sort of separatist shit then NATO would have fifty thousand boots in Estonia before you could blink.
I can think of no greater argument that NATO and the EU are clearly direct repellants to Russian aggression than Putin not daring to fuck with Estonia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [40 favorites]
Not even Polish or German cities. Ida-Viru is over three quarters Russian and right on the border of the Leningrad Oblast right over the Narva river. Estonia has a total population of 1.3 million. If there was ever a justification on the basis of a majority ethnic Russian speaking population being reunited with the motherland, the biggest CB all would be Ida-Viru. Why doesn't Putin try his salami tactic on Ida-Viru? Because if Putin's LGM showed up in Narva and started any sort of separatist shit then NATO would have fifty thousand boots in Estonia before you could blink.
I can think of no greater argument that NATO and the EU are clearly direct repellants to Russian aggression than Putin not daring to fuck with Estonia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [40 favorites]
Joe just (for god's sake!) saying what everyone's thinking. We're all thinking that right?
yes but he's the president for crissakes, you can't just toss that out. It will be replayed on a loop for captive Russian audiences.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:23 PM on March 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
yes but he's the president for crissakes, you can't just toss that out. It will be replayed on a loop for captive Russian audiences.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:23 PM on March 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
you can't just toss that out
For better or worse, that ship sailed with the last prez (he whose name shall not be mentioned).
posted by OHenryPacey at 1:53 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
For better or worse, that ship sailed with the last prez (he whose name shall not be mentioned).
posted by OHenryPacey at 1:53 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
It was a dumb thing to say. And the White House has already tried to back away from it. You don’t say shit like that which is going to pull together Russian citizens as well as piss off Putin some extra amount. Biden absolutely misspoke and now we all get to live with the ripples from that, whatever they might be.
posted by Bella Donna at 2:03 PM on March 26, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 2:03 PM on March 26, 2022 [16 favorites]
yes but he's the president for crissakes, you can't just toss that out. It will be replayed on a loop for captive Russian audiences.
Cant tell if he slipped or that’s what was intended.
But this is very much what we all know, a line has been crossed and there will be no resolution of this until Putin is gone. As for the captive Russian audiences, I think one month in this crisis positions are mostly set. Wondering if that might also be seen as a « call to action » for anybody under Putin, there’s no future for you while you support this man, nah that’s probably over analyzing this.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:03 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
Cant tell if he slipped or that’s what was intended.
But this is very much what we all know, a line has been crossed and there will be no resolution of this until Putin is gone. As for the captive Russian audiences, I think one month in this crisis positions are mostly set. Wondering if that might also be seen as a « call to action » for anybody under Putin, there’s no future for you while you support this man, nah that’s probably over analyzing this.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:03 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
If it was a slip, then it's not that easy? All of the other NATO leaders will be none too pleased if this was a weird Uncle Joe moment and may not support openly adopting a policy of regime change by means of an 'oops'. (And that would be a pretty disturbing model of hegemony -- if the President's offhand remarks can overthrow painstakingly negotiated alliance policy.) But, having to walk back a statement like that as Biden's 'personal sentiment' or some such would be a real unnecessary self-own and does tend to enshrine the less-serious version of the Presidency set by Trump.
It would also play into the hands of this sort of messaging from Dmitry Medvedev (Putin's former placeholder).
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:16 PM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
It would also play into the hands of this sort of messaging from Dmitry Medvedev (Putin's former placeholder).
Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council, said the United States had conspired to destroy Russia as part of an "primitive game" since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.Can't wait for that to start being parroted on Fox News.
"It means Russia must be humiliated, limited, shattered, divided and destroyed," Medvedev, 56, said in a 550-word statement.
...
"Unlike the American establishment, which wants the end of our Motherland, Russia wants to see the United States as a strong and intelligent country, and not the last refuge of those who gradually fall into senile insanity," the former Russian president wrote.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:16 PM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
he's the president for crissakes, you can't just toss that out.
I'm 100% in favor of the President speaking the plain truth on the world stage.
It will be replayed on a loop for captive Russian audiences.
So?
posted by The Tensor at 2:16 PM on March 26, 2022 [23 favorites]
I'm 100% in favor of the President speaking the plain truth on the world stage.
It will be replayed on a loop for captive Russian audiences.
So?
posted by The Tensor at 2:16 PM on March 26, 2022 [23 favorites]
Do you think that maybe the American President calling for overthrow of the Russian government might tend to influence how patriotic dissent feels internally? Or how Russians will evaluate what information can be trusted?
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:20 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:20 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
I have a hard time believing they’ll put that on Russian news. I don’t think they want ANYBODY saying it, because if it get said publicly in front of the Russian people, by anybody, they’ll start thinking about it.
posted by notoriety public at 2:33 PM on March 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 2:33 PM on March 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
On Russia saying they're going to focus on east Ukraine: I was thinking back on week 1 that if they had just gone for east and south Ukraine, they'd have gotten them for free, comparatively. It would have just been more of the status quo. Likely the international response would have been much like 2014. Imagine how differently these past few weeks would have gone without the building narrative, troops massing in Belarus, Zelenskyy being in personal danger and making personal appeals, Russia apparently aiming for regime change. The north side of Ukraine is also where a lot of the reporting has come from of unprepared troops, tanks in the mud, mile long traffic jams, etc. The south and east fronts seem to have gone much more in Russia's favor.
No one can say for certain what would have happened; we can only use our imaginations, but my feeling is that if Russia had just kept slicing the salami, they'd be done by now. I feel certain they would have avoided most of the sanctions.
It's natural to assume that Russia did actually want the Kyiv offensive to accomplish something (presumably occupying Kyiv, assassinating Zelenskyy, etc), and they failed, and so they're giving up on that war goal.
But Russia's goals, motivations, and processes have always been very opaque. Another natural assumption is that Russia has been making rational choices involving cost-benefit analyses in much the same way that European and American leaders do. And the insane costs of this war throw all cost-benefit analysis upside down. Idunno what to make of it all.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:37 PM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
No one can say for certain what would have happened; we can only use our imaginations, but my feeling is that if Russia had just kept slicing the salami, they'd be done by now. I feel certain they would have avoided most of the sanctions.
It's natural to assume that Russia did actually want the Kyiv offensive to accomplish something (presumably occupying Kyiv, assassinating Zelenskyy, etc), and they failed, and so they're giving up on that war goal.
But Russia's goals, motivations, and processes have always been very opaque. Another natural assumption is that Russia has been making rational choices involving cost-benefit analyses in much the same way that European and American leaders do. And the insane costs of this war throw all cost-benefit analysis upside down. Idunno what to make of it all.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:37 PM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
also speaking of dogs and cats I can recommend this twitter account: UkrARMY cats & dogs @UAarmy_animals and the much sillier Giant Military Cats @giantcat9
The stories of trench cats, ship cats, barracks cats, etc (and dogs) have always been ... I get so emotional about them. The cats and dogs don't know what war is. They're not devoted to a cause. They're devoted to their friends, their human friends. They're there because of pure friendship. The love they feel for us, and the love we feel for them. And in every photo of a soldier or a sailor holding a cat, they're smiling.
sidenote: arguing about a gaffe from Biden seems like a bad and annoying use of thread space. I am actually sort of interested in the question of how much the US is actually doing for Ukraine and whether we're doing all we can, or maybe doing something we shouldn't. I'm very very glad that Biden hasn't been hogging the Ukraine news, and European leaders have, but it means it's been hard to get a gauge on Biden's or the US' actual role.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:50 PM on March 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
The stories of trench cats, ship cats, barracks cats, etc (and dogs) have always been ... I get so emotional about them. The cats and dogs don't know what war is. They're not devoted to a cause. They're devoted to their friends, their human friends. They're there because of pure friendship. The love they feel for us, and the love we feel for them. And in every photo of a soldier or a sailor holding a cat, they're smiling.
sidenote: arguing about a gaffe from Biden seems like a bad and annoying use of thread space. I am actually sort of interested in the question of how much the US is actually doing for Ukraine and whether we're doing all we can, or maybe doing something we shouldn't. I'm very very glad that Biden hasn't been hogging the Ukraine news, and European leaders have, but it means it's been hard to get a gauge on Biden's or the US' actual role.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:50 PM on March 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
"Just as the Americans have expanded NATO to our borders and undermined the government of Ukraine, now we see them finishing their work, by trying to overthrow OUR government."
-- Russia
it was a truly dumb thing for biden to say, because that's going to be the reaction - and worst of all, how are we supposed to deny it, when the president just said that putin must go?
i don't care that everyone else is saying it - everyone else doesn't necessarily find themselves in a position where they can credibly follow through on it
if putin was going to say what everyone thought he'd just flat out say, that he was going to nuke new york if we did such and such, then don't you think that would have an effect of hardening our stance against him?
putin's smart enough not to spell things out like that - the thing is, your adversary should always have some doubt over what you might do - doesn't biden understand that?
posted by pyramid termite at 2:53 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
-- Russia
it was a truly dumb thing for biden to say, because that's going to be the reaction - and worst of all, how are we supposed to deny it, when the president just said that putin must go?
i don't care that everyone else is saying it - everyone else doesn't necessarily find themselves in a position where they can credibly follow through on it
if putin was going to say what everyone thought he'd just flat out say, that he was going to nuke new york if we did such and such, then don't you think that would have an effect of hardening our stance against him?
putin's smart enough not to spell things out like that - the thing is, your adversary should always have some doubt over what you might do - doesn't biden understand that?
posted by pyramid termite at 2:53 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Biden's closing remark about Putin is a refreshing change from TFG's fanboying. And it doesn't sound like a policy statement, but a personal one. Let the concern trolls in the media, the Putin-lovers on the right, and the whataboutists and NATO-haters on the left get in a dither about it, but I appreciate the clarity.
And it doesn't really come as news to Russia:
To be clear, our sanction strategy doubles as a regime change strategy and Russia knows this, which is why they are not particularly concerned by a throwaway line.
We don't call it that, but we want it to end with Putin out of power, one way or another.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:56 PM on March 26, 2022 [19 favorites]
And it doesn't really come as news to Russia:
To be clear, our sanction strategy doubles as a regime change strategy and Russia knows this, which is why they are not particularly concerned by a throwaway line.
We don't call it that, but we want it to end with Putin out of power, one way or another.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:56 PM on March 26, 2022 [19 favorites]
The thing is: Putin has to go. Say it, it feels good — because its the right thing to say, for everyone on this planet. Everyone should say it. Go away Putin.
posted by UN at 2:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [33 favorites]
posted by UN at 2:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [33 favorites]
there are ways of accomplishing that goal and they don't have to be talked about - i daresay both putin and biden know this
posted by pyramid termite at 3:00 PM on March 26, 2022
posted by pyramid termite at 3:00 PM on March 26, 2022
(...) interested in the question of how much the US is actually doing for Ukraine and whether we're doing all we can, or maybe doing something we shouldn't.
Rainbo vagrant, I have this List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War open in another tab; been trying to parse out how much humanitarian aid Ukraine is receiving in addition to military supplies (and it's my belief that if a country like Germany can't give military supplies for logistical reasons, then they should increase their humanitarian relief...)
posted by vers at 3:02 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Rainbo vagrant, I have this List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War open in another tab; been trying to parse out how much humanitarian aid Ukraine is receiving in addition to military supplies (and it's my belief that if a country like Germany can't give military supplies for logistical reasons, then they should increase their humanitarian relief...)
posted by vers at 3:02 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
they don't have to be talked about - i daresay both putin and biden know this
The poison underpants speak for themselves.
posted by adept256 at 3:04 PM on March 26, 2022 [8 favorites]
The poison underpants speak for themselves.
posted by adept256 at 3:04 PM on March 26, 2022 [8 favorites]
Biden said what needed to be said. It will not be possible for a return to normal for Russia until Putin is gone. Russian media is going to attack him no matter what he says. The won’t bother with facts or what he says to present what they decide he said to the Russian public.
The Putin faithful in Russia are not going to listen to any argument by Biden. Those in Russia who want change will see Biden as their ally; and may find comfort in it.
posted by interogative mood at 3:05 PM on March 26, 2022 [28 favorites]
The Putin faithful in Russia are not going to listen to any argument by Biden. Those in Russia who want change will see Biden as their ally; and may find comfort in it.
posted by interogative mood at 3:05 PM on March 26, 2022 [28 favorites]
I don’t think they want ANYBODY saying it, because if it get said publicly in front of the Russian people, by anybody, they’ll start thinking about it.
That statement from Medvedev on VK from a few days back explicitly warns the US wants to break up Russia and then goes in the direction you'd expect with a parade of horribles.
And while the crackdown on media does reflect an instinct to make sure only the official line is heard firsthand, to suggest the Russians won't think about regime change if only no one says the words around them is to treat them like children.
I'm not even against adopting that stance, but in a well thought out way and this doesn't feel well thought out. It feels like shooting from the hip. Which Biden is somewhat prone to, but what an arena for it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:08 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
That statement from Medvedev on VK from a few days back explicitly warns the US wants to break up Russia and then goes in the direction you'd expect with a parade of horribles.
And while the crackdown on media does reflect an instinct to make sure only the official line is heard firsthand, to suggest the Russians won't think about regime change if only no one says the words around them is to treat them like children.
I'm not even against adopting that stance, but in a well thought out way and this doesn't feel well thought out. It feels like shooting from the hip. Which Biden is somewhat prone to, but what an arena for it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:08 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
it was a truly dumb thing for biden to say, because that's going to be the reaction
As has been pointed out upthread, Russia has already been saying the US/NATO are trying to effect regime change for decades.
I appreciate leaders who speak the truth rather than tiptoeing around it trying to avoid "offending" liars whose lies are already untethered from reality.
posted by The Tensor at 3:10 PM on March 26, 2022 [17 favorites]
As has been pointed out upthread, Russia has already been saying the US/NATO are trying to effect regime change for decades.
I appreciate leaders who speak the truth rather than tiptoeing around it trying to avoid "offending" liars whose lies are already untethered from reality.
posted by The Tensor at 3:10 PM on March 26, 2022 [17 favorites]
Oh, look, a derail about the US again.
posted by seanmpuckett at 3:13 PM on March 26, 2022 [47 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 3:13 PM on March 26, 2022 [47 favorites]
colossally dumb thing to say?
Counterpoint: "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes." - President Ronald Reagan, 1984.
posted by mikelieman at 3:59 PM on March 26, 2022 [15 favorites]
Counterpoint: "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes." - President Ronald Reagan, 1984.
posted by mikelieman at 3:59 PM on March 26, 2022 [15 favorites]
(^ the reference, for the unfamiliar; and the Bonzo send-up)
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:17 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:17 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
colossally dumb thing to say?
Counterpoint: "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes." - President Ronald Reagan, 1984
Is this real or fake?
On Preview, thank you snuffleupagus.
posted by 15L06 at 4:19 PM on March 26, 2022
Counterpoint: "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes." - President Ronald Reagan, 1984
Is this real or fake?
On Preview, thank you snuffleupagus.
posted by 15L06 at 4:19 PM on March 26, 2022
I appreciate leaders who speak the truth rather than tiptoeing around it trying to avoid "offending" liars whose lies are already untethered from reality.
It's being walked back. [WaPo]
I'll omit any excerpts in deference to those concerned about the electron supply.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:44 PM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's being walked back. [WaPo]
I'll omit any excerpts in deference to those concerned about the electron supply.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:44 PM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
Biden has a refreshing habit of saying the truth out loud. He seems to know how to use these gaffes to bring others along. Remember when he did the same thing to Obama on gay marriage? Official US policy may not be to force regime change in Russia but Putin has got to go.
posted by interogative mood at 5:12 PM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:12 PM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
I don't think you're allowed to quote Reagan as evidence that something isn't dumb.
posted by ryanrs at 5:13 PM on March 26, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 5:13 PM on March 26, 2022 [15 favorites]
How to Flood Putin’s “Information Desert”
"Other approaches have aimed to help Russian speakers hide their identities and get around digital blockades. Apple and Google have reported that more than half of the top twenty most-downloaded apps in Russia last week were virtual private networks, or V.P.N.s, which conceal users’ locations and allow them to leap the digital firewalls that the government has erected around them. “What’s remarkable is the blocking isn’t working,” Powers said. Despite Russia’s efforts to restrict access, Russian traffic to RFE/RL’s YouTube channels, which include Current Time, more than tripled during the past three weeks."
posted by storybored at 5:19 PM on March 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
"Other approaches have aimed to help Russian speakers hide their identities and get around digital blockades. Apple and Google have reported that more than half of the top twenty most-downloaded apps in Russia last week were virtual private networks, or V.P.N.s, which conceal users’ locations and allow them to leap the digital firewalls that the government has erected around them. “What’s remarkable is the blocking isn’t working,” Powers said. Despite Russia’s efforts to restrict access, Russian traffic to RFE/RL’s YouTube channels, which include Current Time, more than tripled during the past three weeks."
posted by storybored at 5:19 PM on March 26, 2022 [10 favorites]
22:14 update on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs war portal:
posted by Not A Thing at 5:20 PM on March 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
On March 26, all of the 10 humanitarian corridors worked. 5,208 people were evacuated from areas of active fighting and Russian shelling. – Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.On another topic, we are somewhat over 30 comments on the six unprepared words that the US president tacked on to the end of his speech, a topic on which (scans thread) there does not appear to be anything edifying to say. Maybe we could call that done at this point?
posted by Not A Thing at 5:20 PM on March 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
POLITICO Cartoon Carousel – World’s cartoonists on this week’s month’s events:posted by cenoxo at 5:26 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Snuffleupagus: Do you think that maybe the American President calling for overthrow of the Russian government might tend to influence how patriotic dissent feels internally?
To be fair, the Russian president has been paying people to try to try to overthrow the American president for a while now, so.... I dunno. I am patriotic, and I am sick of Putin warping my country's politics. *shrug*
But let's get back to Ukraine.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:39 PM on March 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
To be fair, the Russian president has been paying people to try to try to overthrow the American president for a while now, so.... I dunno. I am patriotic, and I am sick of Putin warping my country's politics. *shrug*
But let's get back to Ukraine.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:39 PM on March 26, 2022 [14 favorites]
We want Putin to have an off ramp to exit Ukraine. Sure, we all hate the guy and would like to see him gone, but if he thinks our only goal is his ouster and that we wouldn't be satisfied with his mere withdrawal from Ukraine then it decreases his incentive to leave.
We don't want him thinking and acting like a cornered animal.
posted by Reverend John at 5:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
We don't want him thinking and acting like a cornered animal.
posted by Reverend John at 5:57 PM on March 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
@kamilkazani (Kamil Galeev) : How Sanctions will Kill Russia
"Sanctions won't make Putin back off. They won't make Russian people rebel. That'd be a collective action of a huge scale which isn't gonna happen. They will undermine Russian military efforts and incentivize a much smaller scale, easier to do collective action - local separatism"
posted by storybored at 6:03 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
"Sanctions won't make Putin back off. They won't make Russian people rebel. That'd be a collective action of a huge scale which isn't gonna happen. They will undermine Russian military efforts and incentivize a much smaller scale, easier to do collective action - local separatism"
posted by storybored at 6:03 PM on March 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
If we are doing cartoons here's Cold War Steve at his best.
posted by adamvasco at 6:41 PM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by adamvasco at 6:41 PM on March 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
METAFILTER: to quote Reagan as evidence that something isn't dumb.
posted by philip-random at 6:55 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by philip-random at 6:55 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Have you considered that now if Putin leaves Ukraine but is still in office he can claim victory against the USA.
posted by interogative mood at 9:11 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:11 PM on March 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
yes
posted by clavdivs at 9:27 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 9:27 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Doug Saunders in the Globe&Mail: "Ukrainian 'Nazis' are real but their influence is marginal" (paywall). They get attention in the press, but in actual numbers they're a tiny percentage of the population and have virtually no influence in Ukrainian politics.
posted by ovvl at 9:29 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ovvl at 9:29 PM on March 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
The only off ramp for Putin is retirement. Like Nikita and Boris.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26
posted by clavdivs at 9:31 PM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26
posted by clavdivs at 9:31 PM on March 26, 2022 [5 favorites]
Have you considered that now if Putin leaves Ukraine but is still in office he can claim victory against the USA.
Putin could claim victory against the entire world, I don't give a shit. As long as he GTFO killing and occupying he can say he conquered me personally.
The thing I'm waiting for once that happens is that Russia has now forfeited all of its nukes and they will have to be set to be destroyed the minute Ukraine is vacated.
posted by rhizome at 9:36 PM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
Putin could claim victory against the entire world, I don't give a shit. As long as he GTFO killing and occupying he can say he conquered me personally.
The thing I'm waiting for once that happens is that Russia has now forfeited all of its nukes and they will have to be set to be destroyed the minute Ukraine is vacated.
posted by rhizome at 9:36 PM on March 26, 2022 [11 favorites]
Gaffe or not, Biden's speech will have repercussions that will fundamentally shape this conflict. Swedish news was breathlessly counting down to his speech, recounting other historic speeches by US presidents in Europe. Kennedy in Berlin, Reagan in... also Berlin. Mrs Oops wondered about my apprehension beforehand and I mean: Joe is not an orator. So you know how you can recount in your head the bit about the jelly doughnut and Mr Gorbachev? Future generations will remember this about Joe, and maybe only this. I went to sleep last night worrying again that the war may heat up overnight and have now awoken relieved. But things seemed to be ramping down there for a while and now seem bound to ramp up again. Thanks to six little words.
posted by St. Oops at 10:29 PM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 10:29 PM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ok. A phrase understand in 50 languages.
Ok. The Geo-political landscape is shifting. Joe is there for morale, showing Putin I'm with Europe you little KGB gangster. That's it. The U.S. has near 100,000 troops in Europe, if poised tomorrow and in place, I assure you, the Russian invasion would be over in 6 days...The U.S. alone. America is solid against Putin and a conventional war is not the loomy fear, It's a bomb or cyber attack and more importantly, the world shift.
"The reason is things are moving so fast, change is happening so quickly that democracies require consensus, and we can't put together consensus as quickly as autocrats can,” Biden told the 82nd Airborne soldiers."
I'd rather carry a machine gun in Moscow then fuck with the 82nd, personally.
So there's a concern gap forming, the real on the ground battleground of freedom and it's ripples. It's as if 'covid is over, let's take our our armies out for a spin"
All data is pertinent but discussion of rail gauge, Putin's might did, done, do is ancillary to an update. the human stuff.
Personally, the mefis in Europe have my ear and this far in, it involves democracy itself and it's future.
these are new and terrible events. I won't apologise for slightly hagered screed 'mericavado. Ukraine has spirit that runs deeper the US inc. defence of freedom for itself and for the rest of
us.
that is all
posted by clavdivs at 11:53 PM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ok. The Geo-political landscape is shifting. Joe is there for morale, showing Putin I'm with Europe you little KGB gangster. That's it. The U.S. has near 100,000 troops in Europe, if poised tomorrow and in place, I assure you, the Russian invasion would be over in 6 days...The U.S. alone. America is solid against Putin and a conventional war is not the loomy fear, It's a bomb or cyber attack and more importantly, the world shift.
"The reason is things are moving so fast, change is happening so quickly that democracies require consensus, and we can't put together consensus as quickly as autocrats can,” Biden told the 82nd Airborne soldiers."
I'd rather carry a machine gun in Moscow then fuck with the 82nd, personally.
So there's a concern gap forming, the real on the ground battleground of freedom and it's ripples. It's as if 'covid is over, let's take our our armies out for a spin"
All data is pertinent but discussion of rail gauge, Putin's might did, done, do is ancillary to an update. the human stuff.
Personally, the mefis in Europe have my ear and this far in, it involves democracy itself and it's future.
these are new and terrible events. I won't apologise for slightly hagered screed 'mericavado. Ukraine has spirit that runs deeper the US inc. defence of freedom for itself and for the rest of
us.
posted by clavdivs at 11:53 PM on March 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Personally, the mefis in Europe have my ear and this far in, it involves democracy itself and it's future.
I can't speak for everyone else, but this European is not particularly concerned with big picture bullshit like "democracy itself" or the future of freedom or whatever. All of that reduces the people involved to pawns in a game.
This isn't about the US, and everyone's freedom. This isn't even really about democracy for me. Right now, this is about something far more important than any ideal. It's about survival for Ukraine. All that other principles and ideas stuff can come later. It's a distraction right now.
posted by Dysk at 12:07 AM on March 27, 2022 [36 favorites]
I can't speak for everyone else, but this European is not particularly concerned with big picture bullshit like "democracy itself" or the future of freedom or whatever. All of that reduces the people involved to pawns in a game.
This isn't about the US, and everyone's freedom. This isn't even really about democracy for me. Right now, this is about something far more important than any ideal. It's about survival for Ukraine. All that other principles and ideas stuff can come later. It's a distraction right now.
posted by Dysk at 12:07 AM on March 27, 2022 [36 favorites]
It's about democracy and sovereignty in that Putin's denying Ukraine's rights to it. And in that he's been fucking with European and US democratic processes for going on 8 years (dating from the wiretapping scandal in Poland). We see you, we're not going to let you do that anymore.
Biden's speech was also very spiky against the current Polish government, which has been happily dismantling the independent judiciary, freedom of speech (they keep trying to ban independent media), freedom of protest. It's rather nice to have Joe bringing the weight of US power on the side of freedom after our president openly retweeted info about Biden stealing the election.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:10 AM on March 27, 2022 [34 favorites]
Biden's speech was also very spiky against the current Polish government, which has been happily dismantling the independent judiciary, freedom of speech (they keep trying to ban independent media), freedom of protest. It's rather nice to have Joe bringing the weight of US power on the side of freedom after our president openly retweeted info about Biden stealing the election.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:10 AM on March 27, 2022 [34 favorites]
War is expensive, I am glad Ukraine is getting a lot of death toys to keep their lines intact. It might have been better to say, "We won't do business with Putin, he is not trustworthy, I mean, if this is what he is doing to people he expects to be allies." No one will trust him again, and we will all make sure that sticks. I hope everything comes through that can come through for Ukraine, and Afghanistan, they need help too, all the cold and hungry, especially caused by total destruction of their homelands, I hope to see them built back, in short order, and this war to end. I especiially hope the Russian people can see what has happened in their name so they can get their vote on, and get back their nation.
I don't believe in having a lot, or too much, so I have not a lot to give, but what Vladimir Putin has done to Ukraine, is sympotamatic of a sick system, created to again, profit a few, by the efforts of the many, I have heard this song before.
I can't say enough, oil and natural gas, has something to do with this, and the shadow hands, and needing new port infrastructure for that business, a whole bunch of interests are beating up on Ukraine. Very awful for them, beyond my ability to speak, I have no sympathy for anyone who tries to talk up a rationalization for any of it.
posted by Oyéah at 1:29 AM on March 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
I don't believe in having a lot, or too much, so I have not a lot to give, but what Vladimir Putin has done to Ukraine, is sympotamatic of a sick system, created to again, profit a few, by the efforts of the many, I have heard this song before.
I can't say enough, oil and natural gas, has something to do with this, and the shadow hands, and needing new port infrastructure for that business, a whole bunch of interests are beating up on Ukraine. Very awful for them, beyond my ability to speak, I have no sympathy for anyone who tries to talk up a rationalization for any of it.
posted by Oyéah at 1:29 AM on March 27, 2022 [7 favorites]
How sanctions are killing Russia?Russia's falling. Old sanctions of 2014 sabotaged development of new innovative weaponry. New sanctions of 2022 are undermining Russian military efforts, destroying its technological chains and communications lines, thus breaking country apart. Thread by Kamil Galeev.
I thought his point about the recent departure of (1990s architect of Russian privatisation) Chubais to the West - was particularly interesting. We shall see.
posted by rongorongo at 1:33 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
I thought his point about the recent departure of (1990s architect of Russian privatisation) Chubais to the West - was particularly interesting. We shall see.
posted by rongorongo at 1:33 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Galeev's threads sound plausible, though on one level remind me of Orlov's pronouncements that the US would split into half a dozen warring states by the 2010s, which turned out to only be partly right.
posted by acb at 5:19 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 5:19 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's a 1% wheat shortage, not a 25% wheat shortage.
A more mainstream view
If the first link is correct, the important thing is getting wheat to the middle east and Africa, but the wheat itself isn't a problem. Russia and the Ukraine are looking at serious food shortages. The discrepancy is that Ukraine supplies 25% of *exported* wheat, but most wheat is grown in the countries that use it.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:32 AM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
A more mainstream view
If the first link is correct, the important thing is getting wheat to the middle east and Africa, but the wheat itself isn't a problem. Russia and the Ukraine are looking at serious food shortages. The discrepancy is that Ukraine supplies 25% of *exported* wheat, but most wheat is grown in the countries that use it.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:32 AM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Orhodox theologians are weighing in. A DECLARATION ON THE “RUSSIAN WORLD” (RUSSKII MIR) TEACHING:
posted by kmt at 5:40 AM on March 27, 2022 [44 favorites]
Therefore, we reject the “Russian world” heresy and the shameful actions of the Government of Russia in unleashing war against Ukraine which flows from this vile and indefensible teaching with the connivance of the Russian Orthodox Church, as profoundly un-Orthodox, un-Christian and against humanity, which is called to be “justified… illumined… and washed in the Name of our Lord Jesus Christ and by the Spirit of God” (Baptismal Rite). Just as Russia has invaded Ukraine, so too the Moscow Patriarchate of Patriarch Kirill has invaded the Orthodox Church, for example in Africa, causing division and strife, with untold casualties not just to the body but to the soul, endangering the salvation of the faithful.I especially liked the citations from the Bible supporting their argument. Theologians rock.
posted by kmt at 5:40 AM on March 27, 2022 [44 favorites]
Wow, kmt, this is huge, naming the 'Russian world' ideology a heresy. It certainly made big inroads into my own country's Orthodox church, funding an anti-homosexuality referendum a few years back etc. I wonder if this declaration will have an impact at the level of believers wrt at least SOME of the Russian campaigns (which, at least for my country, have been non-stop since 1989).
posted by doggod at 6:01 AM on March 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by doggod at 6:01 AM on March 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
Is there any reasonable discussion on the possibilities of a Putin removal? There seem to be significant factions in favor of growth of a russo "empire", could worse players be quietly gathering power in the background? It seems unlikely to reform the strongman/czar/big scary leader cultural structure of that part of the world short term.
posted by sammyo at 6:03 AM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by sammyo at 6:03 AM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
There were some people stating concerns over a Putin removal in the March 6 thread.
I remain absolutely unconvinced. Why would a person who agrees with Putin take on the risk of overthrowing him? Sure, there's the theoretical possibility of an even more ruthless dictator but in the logic of dictatorships, Putin would have cut down any such person a long time ago. Dictators typically do not allow for people who could replace them to exist.
posted by patrick54 at 6:27 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
I remain absolutely unconvinced. Why would a person who agrees with Putin take on the risk of overthrowing him? Sure, there's the theoretical possibility of an even more ruthless dictator but in the logic of dictatorships, Putin would have cut down any such person a long time ago. Dictators typically do not allow for people who could replace them to exist.
posted by patrick54 at 6:27 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
patrick54, rongorongo links to a discussion of how hard the sanctions are going to hit Russia, and how people who are strongly pro-Putin will attack their local governments but never Putin if things are going badly.
If the theory is correct, Russia will collapse, but it won't be about people with ideologies, it will be about competition over food and other resources.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 6:45 AM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
If the theory is correct, Russia will collapse, but it won't be about people with ideologies, it will be about competition over food and other resources.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 6:45 AM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
1420 has a new video out 6 hours ago: Do Russians want Ukraine to be Russian?
On the Asian side, the Asian Boss channel has also been doing voxpops, and interestingly, they've managed to build up a pretty wide array of local correspondents. So for this invasion, while the Russian & Ukrainian one is with the emigre communities in Seoul, here's the one in Almaty (Kazakhstan), and the one in Shanghai .
posted by cendawanita at 6:55 AM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
On the Asian side, the Asian Boss channel has also been doing voxpops, and interestingly, they've managed to build up a pretty wide array of local correspondents. So for this invasion, while the Russian & Ukrainian one is with the emigre communities in Seoul, here's the one in Almaty (Kazakhstan), and the one in Shanghai .
posted by cendawanita at 6:55 AM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
A couple of questions...
Kamil Galeev's twitter threads have been copiously linked here, however, I have very little sense of his boba fides beyond what it says in his twitter bio. A was asked in one of the earlier threads but didn't really receive a satisfactory answer. So I'll ask again...
What's his prior track record as a Russia scholar/commentator?
How credible are his assertions?
How well has his analysis thus far stood up?
@Eyebrows McGee
Reading the "Declaration on the 'Russian World' Teaching" above brings to mind your epic concerning the Orthodox angle to all of this. what do you make of the above?
posted by lovelyzoo at 7:27 AM on March 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
Kamil Galeev's twitter threads have been copiously linked here, however, I have very little sense of his boba fides beyond what it says in his twitter bio. A was asked in one of the earlier threads but didn't really receive a satisfactory answer. So I'll ask again...
What's his prior track record as a Russia scholar/commentator?
How credible are his assertions?
How well has his analysis thus far stood up?
@Eyebrows McGee
Reading the "Declaration on the 'Russian World' Teaching" above brings to mind your epic concerning the Orthodox angle to all of this. what do you make of the above?
posted by lovelyzoo at 7:27 AM on March 27, 2022 [9 favorites]
Is there any reasonable discussion on the possibilities of a Putin removal?
This is one of the better news analysis bullet point style articles on the topic (by a poli sci prof in BC). Written before Biden's speech, updated since. Lots of internal links. But probably not much new if you've been following these threads. It lands on 'doubtful but possible' outlook that feels like it's been the consensus since the sanctions kicked in.
On the other hand, there was this Ukrainian intel claim from last week:
Ukraine’s military intelligence claim that Russia’s elites scheme to overthrow Putin [Kyiv Independent]. I took it with a grain of salt, given the source, but maybe Biden's blurt was encouraged in part by intelligence on that point. We can hope.
I'd be interested in reading more, but I don't really know how to separate wheat from chaff went it comes to Kremlinology and I know people are sensitive to cluttering up the thread.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:40 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
This is one of the better news analysis bullet point style articles on the topic (by a poli sci prof in BC). Written before Biden's speech, updated since. Lots of internal links. But probably not much new if you've been following these threads. It lands on 'doubtful but possible' outlook that feels like it's been the consensus since the sanctions kicked in.
On the other hand, there was this Ukrainian intel claim from last week:
Ukraine’s military intelligence claim that Russia’s elites scheme to overthrow Putin [Kyiv Independent]. I took it with a grain of salt, given the source, but maybe Biden's blurt was encouraged in part by intelligence on that point. We can hope.
I'd be interested in reading more, but I don't really know how to separate wheat from chaff went it comes to Kremlinology and I know people are sensitive to cluttering up the thread.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:40 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Kamil Galeev - what's his prior track record as a Russia scholar/commentator?
Beyond his independent reporting, he seems to have done one late 2021 project as a former fellow at the Kennan Institute within the Wilson Center, which is pretty closely tied to the US government: "Nationalizing Russia: The Language and Cultural Policies Toward Ethnic Minorities During the Putin Era" (which I can't find published anywhere). He has masters degrees in econ and history.
Here's an AMA with the Kennan Institute's director from 2020, for a sense of what it's about.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:18 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Beyond his independent reporting, he seems to have done one late 2021 project as a former fellow at the Kennan Institute within the Wilson Center, which is pretty closely tied to the US government: "Nationalizing Russia: The Language and Cultural Policies Toward Ethnic Minorities During the Putin Era" (which I can't find published anywhere). He has masters degrees in econ and history.
Here's an AMA with the Kennan Institute's director from 2020, for a sense of what it's about.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:18 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
From what I understand, the Putin regime cultivates a number of tame extremists purely as examples to demonstrate that Putin is the least-worst alternative, the wise moderate holding back the real fanatics. Perhaps the best-known one is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, known for ranting about wanting to nuke the entire filthy non-Russian world, and sitting in the Duma under the deliberately ironic banner of the “Liberal Democratic Party”.
posted by acb at 10:03 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 10:03 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
How sanctions are killing Russia?Russia's falling. Old sanctions of 2014 sabotaged development of new innovative weaponry. New sanctions of 2022 are undermining Russian military efforts, destroying its technological chains and communications lines, thus breaking country apart. T
Bear in mind that a collapse of Russia opens the path to a whole bunch of mini-Putins striving to become regional strongmen. That's the precise kind of ghastliness that caused humanity to accept the Divine Right of Kings as an improvement. n
posted by ocschwar at 10:23 AM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
So, basically what happened with the 'stans of post-Soviet central Asia?
posted by acb at 10:39 AM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 10:39 AM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
But without a Russia to take their nukes.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:45 AM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:45 AM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in #Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from the storages because optics, electronics, engine parts on the majority of them were stolen. Source: Intel. Dept. of Ukr. MoD.
I wonder who was buying this gear from the thieves/commanders? It would be very funny if the end buyers were NATO intelligence fronts.
posted by ryanrs at 10:56 AM on March 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
I wonder who was buying this gear from the thieves/commanders? It would be very funny if the end buyers were NATO intelligence fronts.
posted by ryanrs at 10:56 AM on March 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
What's the market for stolen tank parts? Restorers that found a t-72 in a barn? I don't think that's a real thing.
posted by adept256 at 11:49 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 11:49 AM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kamil Galeev
Thanks for the credential check, snuffleupagus.
One reason he's drawing attention here is the distinction between "search for evidence" and "search for hypotheses." Galeev seems to be most valuable in that second way. For example, from his most recent thread I see the idea that sanctions-related shortages likely won't be evenly distributed across a large country, and that this will put pressure on local/regional government, which could put pressure on Putin. He gives some evidence that this phenomenon has started, but more importantly he's providing a hypothesis. I hadn't thought of that as a possible stressor on the Russian government (I've heard so much talk about oligarchs, little/none about local government). I'm not going to uncritically accept what Galeev claims, but I will now be keeping an ear out for discussion of regional government in other media.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:53 AM on March 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
Thanks for the credential check, snuffleupagus.
One reason he's drawing attention here is the distinction between "search for evidence" and "search for hypotheses." Galeev seems to be most valuable in that second way. For example, from his most recent thread I see the idea that sanctions-related shortages likely won't be evenly distributed across a large country, and that this will put pressure on local/regional government, which could put pressure on Putin. He gives some evidence that this phenomenon has started, but more importantly he's providing a hypothesis. I hadn't thought of that as a possible stressor on the Russian government (I've heard so much talk about oligarchs, little/none about local government). I'm not going to uncritically accept what Galeev claims, but I will now be keeping an ear out for discussion of regional government in other media.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:53 AM on March 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
Potential clients
Especially for bits that would upgrade their capabilities, but just replacement parts and spares is also a nice market.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:56 AM on March 27, 2022
Especially for bits that would upgrade their capabilities, but just replacement parts and spares is also a nice market.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:56 AM on March 27, 2022
A brazen person could steal parts from Russian tanks in storage and re-sell them to the Russian military as spare parts to repair active tanks. It could be made easier by someone in authority fudging the books.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 12:11 PM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 12:11 PM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
So, Ukraine's tanks are potentially running on parts stolen from Russian tanks?
Please let this be true.
posted by lovelyzoo at 12:50 PM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
Please let this be true.
posted by lovelyzoo at 12:50 PM on March 27, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Ukrainian Army Has More Tanks Now Than When The War Began—Because It Keeps Capturing Them From Russia (forbes)
I was joking about barn-find tanks, but I do recall those videos of farmers towing tanks away with their tractors. There very likely is a t-72 sitting in a barn waiting for the grease-lightning treatment.
And they've been told they don't need to declare these tanks on their taxes.
posted by adept256 at 1:06 PM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
I was joking about barn-find tanks, but I do recall those videos of farmers towing tanks away with their tractors. There very likely is a t-72 sitting in a barn waiting for the grease-lightning treatment.
And they've been told they don't need to declare these tanks on their taxes.
posted by adept256 at 1:06 PM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Zelenskiy gave an interview to Russian independent media (Meduza, Dozhd and Kommersant, not published in Russian yet, possibly because of legal wrangling to avoid imprisonment of journalists), which included frank scepticism of the NATO peace mission idea (by current Polish government) and its dangers for Ukraine's independence.
In other interesting bits from the interview (excerpts have been published by Wyborcza), he wants a return to status quo of January 2022, so not complete RU pull-out from Donbas and Crimea. He's also not going to attack either because the human cost would be too high. Russians have dropped the denazification and demilitarisation talking points in negotiations and details of potential neutrality are being hammered out.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:09 PM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
In other interesting bits from the interview (excerpts have been published by Wyborcza), he wants a return to status quo of January 2022, so not complete RU pull-out from Donbas and Crimea. He's also not going to attack either because the human cost would be too high. Russians have dropped the denazification and demilitarisation talking points in negotiations and details of potential neutrality are being hammered out.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:09 PM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Here is an English-language summary of the interview that Zelenskyy gave to independent Russian media today.
posted by Not A Thing at 1:14 PM on March 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Not A Thing at 1:14 PM on March 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
And they've been told they don't need to declare these tanks on their taxes.
We joke about that but it's important. It's a claim to legitimacy that the Russians have not even tried to counter. The Russians have announced no plans for basic services, law or administration in the occupied territories. They are nothing but an invading army, even their own eyes.
I've heard that when the Carthaginians besieged Rome the citizens of Rome continued making real estate agreements about agricultural lands without offering a discount for the fact that North African cavalry were standing on it. That's what this feels like.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:32 PM on March 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
We joke about that but it's important. It's a claim to legitimacy that the Russians have not even tried to counter. The Russians have announced no plans for basic services, law or administration in the occupied territories. They are nothing but an invading army, even their own eyes.
I've heard that when the Carthaginians besieged Rome the citizens of Rome continued making real estate agreements about agricultural lands without offering a discount for the fact that North African cavalry were standing on it. That's what this feels like.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:32 PM on March 27, 2022 [16 favorites]
"Reading the "Declaration on the 'Russian World' Teaching" above brings to mind your epic concerning the Orthodox angle to all of this. what do you make of the above?"
(As always, quite long when I get going on theology.)
It's good! But I would caution that it's coming out of Fordham (which has a great Orthodox studies/theology program!), which is in the US and is relatively Western, and it's signed by individual Orthodox scholars, priests, and other officials. I only skimmed the name list quickly and saw a few prominent names, but this is more along the lines of a bunch of American theologians at liberal Catholic universities protesting something the US Conference of Catholic Bishops did than individuals with the authority to compel obedience (like bishops). This is actually how theology is supposed to work in Christianity -- theologians are supposed to be, in a sense, the "loyal opposition" who speak truth to power (the hierarchy). Their persuasive power is really important, and their ability to speak outside of the official hierarchy is an important part of that persuasive power.
I can't tell, because my reading in modern Orthodox theology is fairly limited (and mostly about baptism and eschatology, tbh), how much of the selection of Bible verses is "proof-texting" (going hunting for verses that support your POV, which you can basically always find, it's a long book), and how much of the selection is powerful verses with deep resonance in Orthodox theology. My sense is that most of them are the latter -- this is the good, deep theology, not the "ha ha, I can counterquote scripture too!" But I do want to be clear that I can't speak with any authority on that.
For a little more background, you might read up on the 2018 Constantinople-Moscow schism, wherein Moscow unilaterally declared itself no longer in communion with Constantinople, specifically because Constantinople was about to make the Ukrainian Orthodox Church autocephalus (self-headed) and co-equal with Moscow rather than subordinate to it. (There's a whole lot of theological and historical background that goes into what churches get to be autocephalus, but I personally think Ukraine meets the criteria to be autocephalus; I also think the Orthodox Church in America does. My opinion doesn't particularly matter, as I'm not Orthodox, but I'm interested in ecclesiology -- the study of the institutions and organization of churches -- so I've followed the debate. I'm also very interested in the differences in organization between the Catholic and Orthodox Churches, and very interested in how those difference have played out in the "New World," which threw both systems out of whack.)
What makes someone Catholic is "being in communion with Rome" -- i.e., literally able to take communion at the Vatican, or any other church in communion with Rome, because you share enough of the same theology to be "in communion." What makes someone Orthodox is "being in communion with Constantinople." So for Moscow to declare itself out of communion with Constantinople (to "excommunicate" it, literally) is for Moscow to either declare a whole new religion, or to declare itself the arbiter of Orthodoxy and all the rest of Orthodoxy out of communion with the true Orthodox Church. It's been clear this split has been coming for a long while ("Third Rome" is the beginnings of it, and over the last 20 or so years it's been more and more clear that Moscow was going to appropriate Constantinople's authority where-ever it could.). But it's a Big Deal -- somewhere between a "Great Schism of 1054" level Big Deal and a "Henry VIII needs a divorce, 1534" level Big Deal -- for Moscow to have actually excommunicated Constantinople.
(Most of the other Orthodox Patriarchs -- Constantinople, Athens, etc. -- have had pretty strong words against the war and against Kirill's actions. I haven't seen any major theological letters from the partriarchs, but I also don't follow those sorts of sources closely and totally could have missed them. They've been loud and clear in the press, however!)
It is really interesting that the statement draws on Scripture and on Orthodox history in general, while Russian Orthodox statements tend to draw on the history of Russia specifically, and their theological justification grows from that history. Now, "Scripture and Orthodox history in general" as interpreted through a group of Orthodox scholars and leaders is also relying on a particular view of history and its meaning. But it's a shared and agreed-upon vision that's broadly accepted cross-nationally in the Orthodox world. Russia, notably, is making claims about universal Orthodox from the history of Russia specifically.
Which is what you would expect from a church trying to make itself the new Boss Church! But a very tricky play in Orthodoxy, with its more decentralized governance structure (as compared to Catholicism), and it really risks shattering the entire communion and the sometimes-very-delicate relationships that Orthodox Churches in places like Turkey (Constantinople), Israel (Jerusalem), Syria (Antioch, which is located in Damascus, for Reasons), and Egypt (Alexandria) have with local non-Christian government authorities. If the Patriarch of Moscow announces, "I'm actually the boss of all Orthodox Churches in the US and Canada," (as he's kinda done a couple times), the governments would shrug and be like, "Um, you do you, boo. Seems like it's up to your followers but that's fine." If Kirill tries to announce he's the boss of all Christians in Ethiopia (part of Alexandria's authority), it risks the sort of government crackdown that ends in genocide. The positions of some Orthodox communities are very, very tenuous and their leadership has to step very, very carefully, so Kirill smashing around announcing he wants a "Russian World" and is the new boss of Orthodoxy is not great for actual Orthodox Christians in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 1:34 PM on March 27, 2022 [53 favorites]
(As always, quite long when I get going on theology.)
It's good! But I would caution that it's coming out of Fordham (which has a great Orthodox studies/theology program!), which is in the US and is relatively Western, and it's signed by individual Orthodox scholars, priests, and other officials. I only skimmed the name list quickly and saw a few prominent names, but this is more along the lines of a bunch of American theologians at liberal Catholic universities protesting something the US Conference of Catholic Bishops did than individuals with the authority to compel obedience (like bishops). This is actually how theology is supposed to work in Christianity -- theologians are supposed to be, in a sense, the "loyal opposition" who speak truth to power (the hierarchy). Their persuasive power is really important, and their ability to speak outside of the official hierarchy is an important part of that persuasive power.
I can't tell, because my reading in modern Orthodox theology is fairly limited (and mostly about baptism and eschatology, tbh), how much of the selection of Bible verses is "proof-texting" (going hunting for verses that support your POV, which you can basically always find, it's a long book), and how much of the selection is powerful verses with deep resonance in Orthodox theology. My sense is that most of them are the latter -- this is the good, deep theology, not the "ha ha, I can counterquote scripture too!" But I do want to be clear that I can't speak with any authority on that.
For a little more background, you might read up on the 2018 Constantinople-Moscow schism, wherein Moscow unilaterally declared itself no longer in communion with Constantinople, specifically because Constantinople was about to make the Ukrainian Orthodox Church autocephalus (self-headed) and co-equal with Moscow rather than subordinate to it. (There's a whole lot of theological and historical background that goes into what churches get to be autocephalus, but I personally think Ukraine meets the criteria to be autocephalus; I also think the Orthodox Church in America does. My opinion doesn't particularly matter, as I'm not Orthodox, but I'm interested in ecclesiology -- the study of the institutions and organization of churches -- so I've followed the debate. I'm also very interested in the differences in organization between the Catholic and Orthodox Churches, and very interested in how those difference have played out in the "New World," which threw both systems out of whack.)
What makes someone Catholic is "being in communion with Rome" -- i.e., literally able to take communion at the Vatican, or any other church in communion with Rome, because you share enough of the same theology to be "in communion." What makes someone Orthodox is "being in communion with Constantinople." So for Moscow to declare itself out of communion with Constantinople (to "excommunicate" it, literally) is for Moscow to either declare a whole new religion, or to declare itself the arbiter of Orthodoxy and all the rest of Orthodoxy out of communion with the true Orthodox Church. It's been clear this split has been coming for a long while ("Third Rome" is the beginnings of it, and over the last 20 or so years it's been more and more clear that Moscow was going to appropriate Constantinople's authority where-ever it could.). But it's a Big Deal -- somewhere between a "Great Schism of 1054" level Big Deal and a "Henry VIII needs a divorce, 1534" level Big Deal -- for Moscow to have actually excommunicated Constantinople.
(Most of the other Orthodox Patriarchs -- Constantinople, Athens, etc. -- have had pretty strong words against the war and against Kirill's actions. I haven't seen any major theological letters from the partriarchs, but I also don't follow those sorts of sources closely and totally could have missed them. They've been loud and clear in the press, however!)
It is really interesting that the statement draws on Scripture and on Orthodox history in general, while Russian Orthodox statements tend to draw on the history of Russia specifically, and their theological justification grows from that history. Now, "Scripture and Orthodox history in general" as interpreted through a group of Orthodox scholars and leaders is also relying on a particular view of history and its meaning. But it's a shared and agreed-upon vision that's broadly accepted cross-nationally in the Orthodox world. Russia, notably, is making claims about universal Orthodox from the history of Russia specifically.
Which is what you would expect from a church trying to make itself the new Boss Church! But a very tricky play in Orthodoxy, with its more decentralized governance structure (as compared to Catholicism), and it really risks shattering the entire communion and the sometimes-very-delicate relationships that Orthodox Churches in places like Turkey (Constantinople), Israel (Jerusalem), Syria (Antioch, which is located in Damascus, for Reasons), and Egypt (Alexandria) have with local non-Christian government authorities. If the Patriarch of Moscow announces, "I'm actually the boss of all Orthodox Churches in the US and Canada," (as he's kinda done a couple times), the governments would shrug and be like, "Um, you do you, boo. Seems like it's up to your followers but that's fine." If Kirill tries to announce he's the boss of all Christians in Ethiopia (part of Alexandria's authority), it risks the sort of government crackdown that ends in genocide. The positions of some Orthodox communities are very, very tenuous and their leadership has to step very, very carefully, so Kirill smashing around announcing he wants a "Russian World" and is the new boss of Orthodoxy is not great for actual Orthodox Christians in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 1:34 PM on March 27, 2022 [53 favorites]
Wow, boss level comment about a religious institution with boss level aspirations. Much appreciated.
For clarity, "If Kirill tries to announce he's the boss of all Christians in Ethiopia (part of Alexandria's authority), it risks the sort of government crackdown that ends in genocide."
I think you mean a crackdown by the Ethopian government on Orthodox practitioners. At the risk of a thread derail, could you (briefly) outline why that would happen and how that could trigger something more sinister?
posted by lovelyzoo at 1:55 PM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
For clarity, "If Kirill tries to announce he's the boss of all Christians in Ethiopia (part of Alexandria's authority), it risks the sort of government crackdown that ends in genocide."
I think you mean a crackdown by the Ethopian government on Orthodox practitioners. At the risk of a thread derail, could you (briefly) outline why that would happen and how that could trigger something more sinister?
posted by lovelyzoo at 1:55 PM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
"At the risk of a thread derail, could you (briefly) outline why that would happen and how that could trigger something more sisnister?"
Ethiopia was probably the worst-choice example since Orthodox Christians are the majority there, LOL. But throughout much of the Middle East and North Africa, Christians are a minority, and there are often at least three competing Christian Churches -- Oriental Orthodox, Eastern Orthodox (the Constantinople/Moscow communion), and Catholic (which comes in both "Roman" and "Eastern" varieties and may have overlapping dioceses). These groups are often fighting for supremacy among themselves due to longstanding disputes (hence periodically you see competing groups of monks have fistfights at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre).
The biggest danger today typically comes from one of those competing groups saying, for example, "We'll ally ourselves with Saddam, who's liquidating Christians, and by doing so we'll protect our community (at the expense of other Christian communities who are now easier to liquidate)." (No specific event in mind there, just a routinely strategy Saddam used against ALL groups in Iraq.) But there are all kinds of smaller things -- the Turkish government routinely blames the Patriarch of Constantinople (Bartholomew) for anti-government activity (that he is not involved in). Some countries have refused to grant citizenship to bishops, or stripped them of citizenship upon becoming bishops, claiming it's proof they're loyal to something other than the government. Several Oriental Orthodox (the other kind of Orthodoxy) patriarchs live in exile and are not allowed to enter the countries they were born in and are the head of a church in. So it's a range of things. But Bartholomew, for example, has a lot of experience being very careful in what he says and how he says it, to maintain a position of visibility and moral authority both in Orthodoxy and in Turkey. He's careful enough that despite a coordinated campaign of propaganda about his anti-government activities, he still is allowed to operate fairly freely within Turkey. Kirill is used to being the lapdog of a powerful dictator, not a minority religious leader in an uneasy truce with government authorities. He ain't careful about anything but not pissing off Putin.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:12 PM on March 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
Ethiopia was probably the worst-choice example since Orthodox Christians are the majority there, LOL. But throughout much of the Middle East and North Africa, Christians are a minority, and there are often at least three competing Christian Churches -- Oriental Orthodox, Eastern Orthodox (the Constantinople/Moscow communion), and Catholic (which comes in both "Roman" and "Eastern" varieties and may have overlapping dioceses). These groups are often fighting for supremacy among themselves due to longstanding disputes (hence periodically you see competing groups of monks have fistfights at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre).
The biggest danger today typically comes from one of those competing groups saying, for example, "We'll ally ourselves with Saddam, who's liquidating Christians, and by doing so we'll protect our community (at the expense of other Christian communities who are now easier to liquidate)." (No specific event in mind there, just a routinely strategy Saddam used against ALL groups in Iraq.) But there are all kinds of smaller things -- the Turkish government routinely blames the Patriarch of Constantinople (Bartholomew) for anti-government activity (that he is not involved in). Some countries have refused to grant citizenship to bishops, or stripped them of citizenship upon becoming bishops, claiming it's proof they're loyal to something other than the government. Several Oriental Orthodox (the other kind of Orthodoxy) patriarchs live in exile and are not allowed to enter the countries they were born in and are the head of a church in. So it's a range of things. But Bartholomew, for example, has a lot of experience being very careful in what he says and how he says it, to maintain a position of visibility and moral authority both in Orthodoxy and in Turkey. He's careful enough that despite a coordinated campaign of propaganda about his anti-government activities, he still is allowed to operate fairly freely within Turkey. Kirill is used to being the lapdog of a powerful dictator, not a minority religious leader in an uneasy truce with government authorities. He ain't careful about anything but not pissing off Putin.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 2:12 PM on March 27, 2022 [18 favorites]
Top Secret UR tank management technology, with special audio.
Trigger warning: do not watch if RL tank destruction disturbs.
Tweet link.
posted by sammyo at 2:22 PM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Trigger warning: do not watch if RL tank destruction disturbs.
Tweet link.
posted by sammyo at 2:22 PM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
That whole Russian-language interview with Zelenskyy has been published on YouTube, with subtitles in English. Natalia Krapiva put some highlights on Twitter. Here are a few:
4/ @tikhondzyadko asks Zelensky to clarify the number of dead/POW on the Russian side. Zelensky says Ukraine shares all the lists with the Russian army. Many of the killed [Russian] soldiers are “children,” born in 2003-2004, & Russian side refuses to acknowledge them/take their bodies.posted by Kattullus at 2:34 PM on March 27, 2022 [29 favorites]
5/ Zelensky gets very emotional as he is saying that even cats & dogs get better treatment after they die than killed Russian soldiers who Russian government is refusing to acknowledge & instead is offering “trash bags” to Ukraine. “They are not just cattle,” says Zelensky.
6/ Zelensky says Russian gov’s disregard for the lives of its own people is a tragedy that is affecting Ukraine. A lot of Russian soldiers (“children,” he repeats), as Ukrainian intelligence confirms, didn’t understand where they were going. They were sent to be slaughtered in [Ukraine]
Well there's a measure of the two men. Putin calls Ukrainian soldiers nazi drug addicts, Zelenskyy calls Russian soldiers tender youth in bloom.
At least what Zelenskyy says has a future. He can say he has nothing against Russian soldiers, rather their commanders and ultimately Putin. Whereas Putin intends to govern Ukraine - how well is that going to go after you called them nazis and bombed the shit out of their cities?
posted by adept256 at 2:49 PM on March 27, 2022 [23 favorites]
At least what Zelenskyy says has a future. He can say he has nothing against Russian soldiers, rather their commanders and ultimately Putin. Whereas Putin intends to govern Ukraine - how well is that going to go after you called them nazis and bombed the shit out of their cities?
posted by adept256 at 2:49 PM on March 27, 2022 [23 favorites]
Artist Yevgenia Isayeva smeared fake blood on herself and protested the war in St. Petersburg. Here is a striking photo and a video.
posted by Kattullus at 3:08 PM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 3:08 PM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
David Petraeus CNN analysis regarding Mariupol
Petraeus on the strategic shift of Russia CBC News: The National
Warning: graphic content. Vice News report from south Ukraine, Mykolaiv.
posted by jadepearl at 3:37 PM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Petraeus on the strategic shift of Russia CBC News: The National
Warning: graphic content. Vice News report from south Ukraine, Mykolaiv.
posted by jadepearl at 3:37 PM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
One reason he's drawing attention here is the distinction between "search for evidence" and "search for hypotheses." Galeev seems to be most valuable in that second way.
That's how I read him as well. Who knows if things will go down the way he thinks (and tbh there is no credential that anyone could have that would make me believe they have the ability to forecast that) but I've been interested by what he has to say in illuminating various bits of this conflict.
posted by atrazine at 3:48 PM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
That's how I read him as well. Who knows if things will go down the way he thinks (and tbh there is no credential that anyone could have that would make me believe they have the ability to forecast that) but I've been interested by what he has to say in illuminating various bits of this conflict.
posted by atrazine at 3:48 PM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
I have seen other reports corroborating Galeev's assessments: for example, a thread starting with the lack of palletised logistics in the Russian army and ending with the buried lede that Russia doesn't use shipping containers except at ports jibes with Galeev's assessment that the only industries that flourish in Russia are crude extractive ones that a silovik thug in Putin's court can run, and generally don't need sophisticated logistics.
posted by acb at 4:01 PM on March 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by acb at 4:01 PM on March 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
I strongly recommend that everyone watch Zelensky's interview, linked here by Katullus. The twitter recaps are accurate, but don't convey the detail contained in the English captioning (at least in the first 50 minutes, before the captions freeze). I don't think I've ever seen a national leader speak at such length in such an unguarded, thoughtful, and humane manner.
posted by ferdydurke at 4:17 PM on March 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by ferdydurke at 4:17 PM on March 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
The Daily Beast's Julia Davis on Twitter
Russian media is suddenly explicit about what Russia is really doing in Ukraine. Citing Vasily Zenkovsky's writings from 1931, propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov laid it out: "Russia will never cede Ukraine to anyone... it has to be part of Russia, even against Ukraine's own will."posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:11 PM on March 27, 2022
Zelenskyy captions worked for me all the way through. Long, but very worthwhile.
posted by brambleboy at 6:45 PM on March 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by brambleboy at 6:45 PM on March 27, 2022 [4 favorites]
David Petraeus CNN analysis regarding Mariupol yt
Petraeus on the strategic shift of Russia yt CBC News: The National
How is this guy an expert on anything anymore? Surely he hasn't been allowed anywhere near anything important since he let his mistress get access to classified materials.
posted by srboisvert at 6:46 PM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Petraeus on the strategic shift of Russia yt CBC News: The National
How is this guy an expert on anything anymore? Surely he hasn't been allowed anywhere near anything important since he let his mistress get access to classified materials.
posted by srboisvert at 6:46 PM on March 27, 2022 [5 favorites]
Former high ranking military commander and head of the CIA. Amazingly poor decision making on the personal front does not negate other areas of expertise.
posted by jadepearl at 6:52 PM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 6:52 PM on March 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Top Secret UR tank management technology, with special audio.
Trigger warning: do not watch if RL tank destruction disturbs.
An interesting thing to note is that this anti-tank missile probably explodes above the tank and it's the shockwave that does the destruction rather than a kinetic impact or penetration. When it is an armor penetrating anti-tank missile it will almost always pop the turret off because it will explode the munitions in the tank. So many ways to die in a tank!
posted by srboisvert at 6:53 PM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Trigger warning: do not watch if RL tank destruction disturbs.
An interesting thing to note is that this anti-tank missile probably explodes above the tank and it's the shockwave that does the destruction rather than a kinetic impact or penetration. When it is an armor penetrating anti-tank missile it will almost always pop the turret off because it will explode the munitions in the tank. So many ways to die in a tank!
posted by srboisvert at 6:53 PM on March 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Has anyone heard anything about Mariupol? I'm hearing chatter on Twitter that it may have fallen, but no confirmed reports.
posted by corb at 7:16 PM on March 27, 2022
posted by corb at 7:16 PM on March 27, 2022
An interesting thing to note is that this anti-tank missile probably explodes above the tank and it's the shockwave that does the destruction rather than a kinetic impact or penetration.
Tanks on both sides of the NATO/WP line have had kevlar (or similar) linings inside the hull to prevent spalling-based kills since the early~mid 80s. The search term here is “squash head” or HESH, which was a particular emphasis of British antitank weapons during the early and mid Cold War. I am by no means an expert - just an internet rando who manages anxiety by reading about weapon systems - but I suspect what we’re seeing is actually a tandem-charge warhead where the first stage is used to predetonate explosive reactive armor on the surface of the tank, and the second is what shapes the penetrating core into a stream of liquid metal that actually pierces the armor and kills the crew. This is how the Javelin’s warhead works but is far from unique to that weapon. Some of that superficial explosion might also be the ERA triggering.
My layman’s understanding is that cookoff of the munitions in a modern Russian MBT’s carousel is relatively uncommon. But I could easily be wrong about any/all of the above; apologies in advance if you’re a for-real expert.
(Decided to look it up before hitting post: the control unit’s a PDU-215 so that was almost certainly a Ukrainian Skif ATGM firing a tandem-charge RK-2S or RK-2M-K)
posted by Ryvar at 8:59 PM on March 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
Tanks on both sides of the NATO/WP line have had kevlar (or similar) linings inside the hull to prevent spalling-based kills since the early~mid 80s. The search term here is “squash head” or HESH, which was a particular emphasis of British antitank weapons during the early and mid Cold War. I am by no means an expert - just an internet rando who manages anxiety by reading about weapon systems - but I suspect what we’re seeing is actually a tandem-charge warhead where the first stage is used to predetonate explosive reactive armor on the surface of the tank, and the second is what shapes the penetrating core into a stream of liquid metal that actually pierces the armor and kills the crew. This is how the Javelin’s warhead works but is far from unique to that weapon. Some of that superficial explosion might also be the ERA triggering.
My layman’s understanding is that cookoff of the munitions in a modern Russian MBT’s carousel is relatively uncommon. But I could easily be wrong about any/all of the above; apologies in advance if you’re a for-real expert.
(Decided to look it up before hitting post: the control unit’s a PDU-215 so that was almost certainly a Ukrainian Skif ATGM firing a tandem-charge RK-2S or RK-2M-K)
posted by Ryvar at 8:59 PM on March 27, 2022 [11 favorites]
So, apparently the reason Ukraine is winning (in part) is that there are a lot of people in Arkansas using night vision goggles to hunt for feral (and invasive) hogs. Googles they bought on Ebay. From Russia. With serial numbers filed off.
Goggles that can't be used for night raids in Ukraine because they're in Arkansas.
Who had this on their bingo cards for 2022?
posted by ocschwar at 9:07 PM on March 27, 2022 [44 favorites]
Goggles that can't be used for night raids in Ukraine because they're in Arkansas.
Who had this on their bingo cards for 2022?
posted by ocschwar at 9:07 PM on March 27, 2022 [44 favorites]
An interesting thing to note is that this anti-tank missile probably explodes above the tank and it's the shockwave that does the destruction
Overfly Top Attack. It's a shaped charge pointed down. See here for an animation (at bottom.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:14 PM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Overfly Top Attack. It's a shaped charge pointed down. See here for an animation (at bottom.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:14 PM on March 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
For the video in question, the control unit is visibly a PDU-215, so there’s no question of Western NLAW/Javelin OTA fancypants tech in play.
The Skif is their own weapon. Unlike most of their weapons, the closest Russian system (the Kornet) was developed after the Soviet breakup; R&D for the Skif began in the mid-2000s. Even if the guidance system is a bit old school the warhead is fully on par with any infantry-portable system fielded by NATO members.
Point is: this is a textbook example of Ukrainians skilfully employing an excellent weapon they built for themselves.
Side note: while fact-checking this and my prior comment I stumbled across the fact that the Russians developed an infantry-portable thermobaric warhead for the Kornet. Presumably for those times when you’ve had a stressful week and just need to grab your bros for a couple days of offroading and major warcrimes. Goddamn but I hope they lose.
posted by Ryvar at 11:20 PM on March 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
The Skif is their own weapon. Unlike most of their weapons, the closest Russian system (the Kornet) was developed after the Soviet breakup; R&D for the Skif began in the mid-2000s. Even if the guidance system is a bit old school the warhead is fully on par with any infantry-portable system fielded by NATO members.
Point is: this is a textbook example of Ukrainians skilfully employing an excellent weapon they built for themselves.
Side note: while fact-checking this and my prior comment I stumbled across the fact that the Russians developed an infantry-portable thermobaric warhead for the Kornet. Presumably for those times when you’ve had a stressful week and just need to grab your bros for a couple days of offroading and major warcrimes. Goddamn but I hope they lose.
posted by Ryvar at 11:20 PM on March 27, 2022 [13 favorites]
The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv Guardian article about the air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, who's drone and other IT heavy activities have had some prominent successes in the war.
posted by rongorongo at 11:27 PM on March 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 11:27 PM on March 27, 2022 [6 favorites]
Article from the Atlantic with a conversation between two ex-marines. TL;DR
* that the time of tanks may have passed
* Russian tactics and doctrine vs. Ukraine's after 2014 i.e., top-down vs. more horizontal
* morale
posted by jadepearl at 11:41 PM on March 27, 2022
* that the time of tanks may have passed
* Russian tactics and doctrine vs. Ukraine's after 2014 i.e., top-down vs. more horizontal
* morale
posted by jadepearl at 11:41 PM on March 27, 2022
From the Financial Times: HSBC has repeatedly edited its analysts’ research publications to remove references to a “war” in Ukraine, as the UK bank resists pressure to follow rivals by closing its business in Russia. Moscow officials have consistently denied that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes a war, calling it a special military operation justified on grounds of self-defence. HSBC committees that review all external-published research and client communications have amended multiple reports to soften the language used on the subject, including changing the word “war” to “conflict”, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. If you cannot access that article, The Guardian also has brief report, which credits FT.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:54 AM on March 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 12:54 AM on March 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
There are some references up-thread to opaque Russian war aims and long-term goals, which I don't really get. I thought it was pretty clear both from published works from central figures, as well as allowed discussions in Russian state media, that the restoration of Soviet/Tsarist Russian borders as well as a campaign of de-stabilization of liberal Western democracies is the plan.
And it makes kind of sense as well. 80% of the Russian population basically lives on a plain in the western parts of the country. The border with "unfriendly" countries is long and a plain is hard to defend. Pushing back big parts of the frontiers to either coasts (the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea) or mountain ranges (the Carphatians, Caucasus) makes the homeland a lot more defensible. Plus it plays great with the "Make Russian Great Again" crowd.
Admittedly, my grasp of international politics is shaky, but all the articles going "that inscrutable Putin, what can he possibly want?" do not make much sense to me.
posted by Harald74 at 1:28 AM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
And it makes kind of sense as well. 80% of the Russian population basically lives on a plain in the western parts of the country. The border with "unfriendly" countries is long and a plain is hard to defend. Pushing back big parts of the frontiers to either coasts (the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea) or mountain ranges (the Carphatians, Caucasus) makes the homeland a lot more defensible. Plus it plays great with the "Make Russian Great Again" crowd.
Admittedly, my grasp of international politics is shaky, but all the articles going "that inscrutable Putin, what can he possibly want?" do not make much sense to me.
posted by Harald74 at 1:28 AM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ryvar, unfortunately Russia has no monopoly on truly terrible weapons; I first heard of thermobarics at a party in '81 when the Falklands war was on - there was a soldier in the room who said the English were were too soft on the enemy and then described an improvised air-delivered thermobaric and its effects, in too much depth. The room went very quiet until someone coughed and said they were getting another box of beers.
posted by unearthed at 1:32 AM on March 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by unearthed at 1:32 AM on March 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
Harald74, I get the feeling most of the wondering thinkpieces are because Putin bungled that goal so very much. They've spent years to decades building him up as a genius mastermind, but there's a reason the spies drinking their own koolaid and going paranoid is a trope.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:49 AM on March 28, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:49 AM on March 28, 2022 [10 favorites]
Putin has also recently been described, probably quite accurately, as That guy playing Risk whose mom is coming to get him, so he just attacks everybody because fuck it.
posted by acb at 1:56 AM on March 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by acb at 1:56 AM on March 28, 2022 [12 favorites]
The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv
Special IT force of 30 soldiers on quad bikes is vital part of Ukraine’s defence, but forced to crowdfund for supplies
(The Guardian)
This may well be a geeky version of The Scarlet Pimpernel -- a legend of war. But regardless, Ukraine is a highly developed country with both tech and military industries. This is not Syria or Chechnya.
posted by mumimor at 2:01 AM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Special IT force of 30 soldiers on quad bikes is vital part of Ukraine’s defence, but forced to crowdfund for supplies
(The Guardian)
This may well be a geeky version of The Scarlet Pimpernel -- a legend of war. But regardless, Ukraine is a highly developed country with both tech and military industries. This is not Syria or Chechnya.
posted by mumimor at 2:01 AM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
corb: Has anyone heard anything about Mariupol? I'm hearing chatter on Twitter that it may have fallen, but no confirmed reports.
Not yet. The mayor is still in touch with reporters, and he claims that Ukrainian forces are still resisting.
posted by Kattullus at 2:01 AM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Not yet. The mayor is still in touch with reporters, and he claims that Ukrainian forces are still resisting.
posted by Kattullus at 2:01 AM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Thinking about Putin, i always tend to come to Ivan Krastev, who has studied Putin for many years. Here a link to a recent interview he gave to Spiegel International (in English, not paywalled)
I appreciate his measured approach and deep knowledge of geopolitics and the region.
There is also a Panel discussion Krastev chaired in 2018, i have rewatched several times lately. Link to YouTube Channel of Library of Congress.
Participants are Rosa Brooks, Robert Cooper, Thomas Bagger and Soli Ozel (not Fyodor Lukyanov as it says in the description).
posted by 15L06 at 2:14 AM on March 28, 2022 [10 favorites]
I appreciate his measured approach and deep knowledge of geopolitics and the region.
There is also a Panel discussion Krastev chaired in 2018, i have rewatched several times lately. Link to YouTube Channel of Library of Congress.
Participants are Rosa Brooks, Robert Cooper, Thomas Bagger and Soli Ozel (not Fyodor Lukyanov as it says in the description).
posted by 15L06 at 2:14 AM on March 28, 2022 [10 favorites]
Article from ABC (Australian Broadcasting Company) -- I left Ukraine in silence — leaving a country and people in dire distress by journalist Sarah Ferguson.
posted by jadepearl at 2:32 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by jadepearl at 2:32 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
An article I read yesterday or the day before on the Russian forces' ineffectiveness in Ukraine, which I couldn't find then.
Here it is
posted by Stoneshop at 2:43 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Here it is
posted by Stoneshop at 2:43 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Probably an idle thought, but given the performance of Russian armored infantry columns so far, we might conclude that no, they cannot defend themselves from the A-10 wart hog.
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
posted by ocschwar at 5:38 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
posted by ocschwar at 5:38 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
I have seen other reports corroborating Galeev's assessments: for example, a thread starting with the lack of palletised logistics in the Russian army and ending with the buried lede that Russia doesn't use shipping containers except at ports
People keep expecting the Russian military to be an advanced modern force.
The last major equipment upgrade that most of their soldiers saw was in 2013, when they finally started fielding a futuristic technology known as socks.
posted by automatronic at 5:38 AM on March 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
People keep expecting the Russian military to be an advanced modern force.
The last major equipment upgrade that most of their soldiers saw was in 2013, when they finally started fielding a futuristic technology known as socks.
posted by automatronic at 5:38 AM on March 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
given the performance of Russian armored infantry columns so far, we might conclude that no, they cannot defend themselves from the A-10 wart hog...Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
Discussion of the probability of nuclear war belongs in a different thread. I've been putting together links for a thread on the subject and I will try to have it up later today.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 6:34 AM on March 28, 2022 [18 favorites]
Discussion of the probability of nuclear war belongs in a different thread. I've been putting together links for a thread on the subject and I will try to have it up later today.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 6:34 AM on March 28, 2022 [18 favorites]
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
That is kind of backward. Based on how poorly the Russian army has performed, I think it is a fair assessment to say that in a purely conventional war, NATO could roll them over. Not without losses, but still quite one sided. But that is only in a fictitious world where there is no chance of escalation -- in the real world, the risk of escalation is precisely why NATO isn't flying bombing raids.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:57 AM on March 28, 2022 [14 favorites]
That is kind of backward. Based on how poorly the Russian army has performed, I think it is a fair assessment to say that in a purely conventional war, NATO could roll them over. Not without losses, but still quite one sided. But that is only in a fictitious world where there is no chance of escalation -- in the real world, the risk of escalation is precisely why NATO isn't flying bombing raids.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:57 AM on March 28, 2022 [14 favorites]
Stratcom Centre UA
Irpin, a commuter town on the outskirts of Kyiv, has been liberated from Russian troops, – the Mayor of Irpin, Oleksandr Markushyn.
posted by adamvasco at 7:41 AM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Irpin, a commuter town on the outskirts of Kyiv, has been liberated from Russian troops, – the Mayor of Irpin, Oleksandr Markushyn.
posted by adamvasco at 7:41 AM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Sergej Sumlenny: In many tapped phone calls between Russian soldiers and their relatives (Russians steal UKR mobile phones, use them, SBU taps) they tell same story: how rich Ukraine is, how much they have looted, and how cool ppl lived here. Some saw asphalt and street lights for the fist time. (short thread)
posted by cendawanita at 7:44 AM on March 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 7:44 AM on March 28, 2022 [13 favorites]
CNN Anchor Jim Sciutto and Ukraine World both reporting on Twitter that mayor of Irpin says town has been reclaimed from Russian troops. Which would be awesome.
posted by Bella Donna at 8:08 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bella Donna at 8:08 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Well, I mean, sounds great, but being occupied by enemy troops isn't like being pregnant (e.g. either you are or you aren't). Though I guess being told to take the town vs being told to run away is kind of either-or. A little more detail would be good.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:19 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:19 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Perhaps I should have waited to share that info until there were more details. Here's something else that I don't have many details on but which both the Wall St. Journal and Bellingcat confirm on Twitter: Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
For me, at least, this is very much a WTF moment. Like, seriously?
Behind a paywall, you can read the WSJ scoop on the "suspected" poisoning. I don't have a subscription so cannot read it. Will note that food poisoning is a thing but so are chemical weapons (much much less often).
posted by Bella Donna at 8:32 AM on March 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
For me, at least, this is very much a WTF moment. Like, seriously?
Behind a paywall, you can read the WSJ scoop on the "suspected" poisoning. I don't have a subscription so cannot read it. Will note that food poisoning is a thing but so are chemical weapons (much much less often).
posted by Bella Donna at 8:32 AM on March 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
A Bellingcat Twitter thread summarises the incident. The symptoms do not sound like food poisoning.
posted by confluency at 8:37 AM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by confluency at 8:37 AM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
(Sorry; just realised Bella Donna linked to the same Twitter thread!)
posted by confluency at 8:38 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by confluency at 8:38 AM on March 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.
Words have so little meaning this days.
posted by srboisvert at 8:53 AM on March 28, 2022 [23 favorites]
Words have so little meaning this days.
posted by srboisvert at 8:53 AM on March 28, 2022 [23 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: They did this on the liberal side of things too. Before the war and the crackdowns before the war, the big networks would bring on liberal guests.
An interview with one such guest appeared in NRC, the Dutch leftish-liberal newspaper of record (run it through your favourite translator if Dutch is all Greek to you). He and his family had just crossed the Georgian border heading for Tiblisi when the invasion of Ukraine started; the name Michael Wasiura led me to this article by him, dateline March 1, about how Russian state propaganda on TV brainwashes their viewers.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:20 AM on March 28, 2022
An interview with one such guest appeared in NRC, the Dutch leftish-liberal newspaper of record (run it through your favourite translator if Dutch is all Greek to you). He and his family had just crossed the Georgian border heading for Tiblisi when the invasion of Ukraine started; the name Michael Wasiura led me to this article by him, dateline March 1, about how Russian state propaganda on TV brainwashes their viewers.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:20 AM on March 28, 2022
One of my friends, who is a Russian language analyst, was explaining/translating a "joke" that he apparently saw on a Telegram channel earlier. I'm sure it's better and has additional levels of meaning in the original Russian, but it goes something like:
Guest: "Is Mr ___ available? I have an appointment"
Secretary: "I'm very sorry, he is sick today and not working"
Guest: "Oh no, I hope it is not serious"
Secretary: "Just a mild case of food poisoning"
Guest: "Ah, unfortunate—what from?"
Secretary: "Poison, in his food"
I gather there are quite a few "jokes" like this going around Russian-language Telegram right now.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:21 AM on March 28, 2022 [24 favorites]
Guest: "Is Mr ___ available? I have an appointment"
Secretary: "I'm very sorry, he is sick today and not working"
Guest: "Oh no, I hope it is not serious"
Secretary: "Just a mild case of food poisoning"
Guest: "Ah, unfortunate—what from?"
Secretary: "Poison, in his food"
I gather there are quite a few "jokes" like this going around Russian-language Telegram right now.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:21 AM on March 28, 2022 [24 favorites]
WSJ: Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Suspected Poisoning
The important bit:
The important bit:
Following the meeting in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Abramovich, who has shuttled between Moscow, Lviv and other negotiating venues, as well as at least two senior members of the Ukrainian team developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands, the people said.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:24 AM on March 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
The victims blamed the suspected attack on hard-liners in Moscow who they said wanted to sabotage talks to end the war. A person close to Mr. Abramovich said it wasn’t clear who had targeted the group.
Mr. Abramovich and the Ukrainian negotiators, who include Crimean Tatar lawmaker Rustem Umerov, have since improved and their lives aren’t in danger, the people said. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has met with Mr. Abramovich, wasn’t affected, they said. Mr. Zelensky’s spokesman said he had no information about any suspected poisoning.
Western experts who looked into the incident said it was hard to determine whether the symptoms were caused by a chemical or biological agent or by some sort of electromagnetic-radiation attack, the people familiar with the matter said.
If it was poison in the food it would have presented different symptoms. Peeling skin on faces and hands suggests gas exposure. How they presented a limited gas exposure is a question. (Umbrella spray? Elevator ride?)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:47 AM on March 28, 2022
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:47 AM on March 28, 2022
Russian investigative newspaper 'Novaya Gazeta' suspends publication after Kremlin warnings . Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 11:24 AM on March 28, 2022 [20 favorites]
Russia's Novaya Gazeta newspaper, whose editor Dmitry Muratov was a co-winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize, said on Monday it was suspending its online and print activities until the end of Russia's "special operation" in Ukraine.This was to be expected, but it’s still sad news. There are now no independent media publishing news within Russia anymore.
The investigative paper, which has already removed material from its website on Russia's military action in Ukraine to comply with a new media law, said it had received another warning from state communications regulator Roskomnadzor on Monday about its reporting, prompting it to pause operations.
"We are suspending the publication of the newspaper on our website, social media networks and in print until the end of the 'special operation on Ukraine's territory'," the paper wrote on its website.
In a separate message to readers, Muratov and his reporters said the decision to halt their activities had been difficult but necessary.
"There is no other choice," the note said. "For us, and I know, for you, it's an awful and difficult decision."
posted by Kattullus at 11:24 AM on March 28, 2022 [20 favorites]
Probably an idle thought, but given the performance of Russian armored infantry columns so far, we might conclude that no, they cannot defend themselves from the A-10 wart hog.
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
Whether a war ends or escalates after you win a battle is a choice the other side gets to make. It isn't settled by hardware.
NATO intervention could defeat the invading forces and make the Russians withdraw--and maybe even topple Putin. Or it could give him a jolt of patriotic support as westerners kill Russians and encourage him to entrench and keep pressing the war.
People have a very poor track record of figuring out how their enemy will respond. I mean, that's why we're talking about this: Putin thought he could win a quick war with on-paper forces that would leave the other side no choice but to be reasonable.
posted by mark k at 11:55 AM on March 28, 2022 [19 favorites]
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
Whether a war ends or escalates after you win a battle is a choice the other side gets to make. It isn't settled by hardware.
NATO intervention could defeat the invading forces and make the Russians withdraw--and maybe even topple Putin. Or it could give him a jolt of patriotic support as westerners kill Russians and encourage him to entrench and keep pressing the war.
People have a very poor track record of figuring out how their enemy will respond. I mean, that's why we're talking about this: Putin thought he could win a quick war with on-paper forces that would leave the other side no choice but to be reasonable.
posted by mark k at 11:55 AM on March 28, 2022 [19 favorites]
Olga Onuch: The Zelenskyy effect: Why Ukraine’s “Ze” is defeating Russia’s “Z”
“Unlike ethnic national identity … civic identity is for everyone who considers their home country to be Ukraine, regardless of native language or ethnicity”posted by Kabanos at 12:09 PM on March 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
Probably an idle thought, but given the performance of Russian armored infantry columns so far, we might conclude that no, they cannot defend themselves from the A-10 wart hog.
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
A-10s only work well in an environment where they can be protected from ground to air missiles typically by having them taken out during the establishment of total air superiority. Russia can launch anti-air missiles from within Russia to attack any Warthog that takes a run at that convoy and an attack on Russian territory and military installations to prevent that would be a very serious escalation. Warthogs are amazing weapons but they are only awesome as part of a combined package of fairly total war (kind of like how modern tanks, as we have learned, require a lot of help now too).
posted by srboisvert at 12:28 PM on March 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
Which means NATO involvement would end the war very quickly and without escalation beyond conventional.
A-10s only work well in an environment where they can be protected from ground to air missiles typically by having them taken out during the establishment of total air superiority. Russia can launch anti-air missiles from within Russia to attack any Warthog that takes a run at that convoy and an attack on Russian territory and military installations to prevent that would be a very serious escalation. Warthogs are amazing weapons but they are only awesome as part of a combined package of fairly total war (kind of like how modern tanks, as we have learned, require a lot of help now too).
posted by srboisvert at 12:28 PM on March 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
In many tapped phone calls between Russian soldiers and their relatives (Russians steal UKR mobile phones, use them, SBU taps) they tell same story: how rich Ukraine isWow. Ukraine is easily one of the poorest nations in Europe; Russia's per-capita GDP (PPP), as of last year, was more than double Ukraine's.
posted by Flunkie at 12:33 PM on March 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
inequality is a bitch
posted by mumimor at 12:35 PM on March 28, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 12:35 PM on March 28, 2022 [26 favorites]
News from Finland: Ukrainians with pets get their own reception centre in Riihimäki. Excerpt:
Finnish authorities have expressed concern over potential animal diseases carried by pets accompanying Ukrainians seeking protection in Finland. The situation is unprecedented, as asylum seekers or refugees arriving in Finland in the past have rarely – if ever – brought animals with them.posted by Kattullus at 12:39 PM on March 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Finnish Immigration Service (Migri) plans to accommodate Ukrainians arriving in Finland with pets at a reception centre in Riihimäki, about 70 kilometres north of Helsinki. The reception centre will start operating no later than Tuesday, April 5, Migri said in a statement.
Ukrainian arrivals in Riihimäki are now staying in vacant city-owned rental apartments. They can accommodate a total of about 240 people.
Surely this is not the place for yet another A-10 debate? Or, not until there are any in Ukraine, at any rate.
posted by Quasirandom at 1:30 PM on March 28, 2022 [21 favorites]
posted by Quasirandom at 1:30 PM on March 28, 2022 [21 favorites]
Wow. Ukraine is easily one of the poorest nations in Europe; Russia's per-capita GDP (PPP), as of last year, was more than double Ukraine's.
A comparison of median family income rather than mean family income, between Ukraine and Russia, would provide a succinct explanation here.
posted by ocschwar at 1:35 PM on March 28, 2022 [18 favorites]
A comparison of median family income rather than mean family income, between Ukraine and Russia, would provide a succinct explanation here.
posted by ocschwar at 1:35 PM on March 28, 2022 [18 favorites]
Obscenely wealthy oligarch Georg is a statistical error and should not have been counted.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:42 PM on March 28, 2022 [41 favorites]
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:42 PM on March 28, 2022 [41 favorites]
Ok fair enough it is probably best if we avoid discussions of specific weapons systems that could be used to help defend Ukraine as this thread is long enough and we should focus on actual events; not hypotheticals
posted by interogative mood at 1:49 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:49 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
A-10 thread is still open for those so inclined.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:55 PM on March 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:55 PM on March 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
Reuters: Unprotected Russian soldiers disturbed radioactive dust in Chernobyl's 'Red Forest', workers say
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:17 PM on March 28, 2022 [30 favorites]
LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.Some of the soldiers had no idea what the plant was, let alone its history.
The two sources said soldiers in the convoy did not use any anti-radiation gear. The second Chernobyl employee said that was "suicidal" for the soldiers because the radioactive dust they inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation in their bodies.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:17 PM on March 28, 2022 [30 favorites]
That is tragic on so many levels.
posted by Bella Donna at 2:23 PM on March 28, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 2:23 PM on March 28, 2022 [19 favorites]
A comparison of median family income rather than mean family income, between Ukraine and Russia, would provide a succinct explanation here.
I've had conversations with numerous Russians, inside and outside of Russia, who were genuinely surprised to hear from me that the country I'm from was not an illiterate uneducated wasteland before the Soviets came and showed us how to read and such. Those people were extra dumbfounded when I expressed the idea that my country was set back decades by the Soviet occupation and theft (usually I get a chance to list a few personal examples and experiencea here).
I am not in any way surprised then to hear Russian soldiers being confused at seeing street lights and such on arrival in Ukraine. It's not their fault — decades of Soviet propaganda has its effect.
posted by UN at 2:25 PM on March 28, 2022 [26 favorites]
I've had conversations with numerous Russians, inside and outside of Russia, who were genuinely surprised to hear from me that the country I'm from was not an illiterate uneducated wasteland before the Soviets came and showed us how to read and such. Those people were extra dumbfounded when I expressed the idea that my country was set back decades by the Soviet occupation and theft (usually I get a chance to list a few personal examples and experiencea here).
I am not in any way surprised then to hear Russian soldiers being confused at seeing street lights and such on arrival in Ukraine. It's not their fault — decades of Soviet propaganda has its effect.
posted by UN at 2:25 PM on March 28, 2022 [26 favorites]
Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest", kicking up clouds of radioactive dust, workers at the site said.
Maybe it was debunked, but I know I read some reporting that Russian troops were ordered to entrench in there, not just move through. Which of course involves digging and then living in the hole and is absolutely the last thing you want to do there.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:30 PM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Maybe it was debunked, but I know I read some reporting that Russian troops were ordered to entrench in there, not just move through. Which of course involves digging and then living in the hole and is absolutely the last thing you want to do there.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:30 PM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
> Thinking about Putin, i always tend to come to Ivan Krastev, who has studied Putin for many years. Here a link to a recent interview he gave to Spiegel International (in English, not paywalled)
I appreciate his measured approach and deep knowledge of geopolitics and the region.
Great link, 15L06. The last paragraph in particular made a big impact on me, regarding how this war has upended the previous trade-based international order:
I appreciate his measured approach and deep knowledge of geopolitics and the region.
Great link, 15L06. The last paragraph in particular made a big impact on me, regarding how this war has upended the previous trade-based international order:
Krastev: Perhaps. Because of the pandemic and this war, the state again plays a larger role. In the pandemic, it was the welfare state that cared for its citizens and kept them alive. In this war, it is the security state that doesn’t just protect its citizens, but could also demand something from them: Namely, the readiness to make sacrifices. A friend of mine works at one of the biggest business schools. I told him: Everything you are teaching is useless. Just as useless as teaching socialism studies was in 1990. The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will be over. We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we.posted by chappell, ambrose at 2:41 PM on March 28, 2022 [8 favorites]
DISPATCH: INTERVIEW WITH A UKRAINIAN MIG-29 PILOT
Conflict journalist Nolan Peterson talks to Ukrainian fighter pilot "Juice".
posted by Kabanos at 2:41 PM on March 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
Conflict journalist Nolan Peterson talks to Ukrainian fighter pilot "Juice".
posted by Kabanos at 2:41 PM on March 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'm a bit confused about why the Western countries involved Ukraine haven't made more about the Budapest Memorandum - especially the signatories of it. I understand that there's some debate about how legally binding that document is, and what the obligations are on the countries that signed it (e.g. are they obliged to defend Ukraine, or simply not invade it). Regardless of what a maximalist interpretation would entail, however, Russia invading Ukraine clearly violates even a minimalist interpretation of their duties there - respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders.
It seems to me that this could have been brought out much more forcefully at much earlier stages for rhetorical and moral strength, in order to set the terms rather than allowing Putin to do so. Some examples:
(1) In every UN discussion, every time that any US official weighed in on the situation, in every communication with Russia, etc., it could have been stressed - especially to Russia - that Russia specifically agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear arsenal, and they are not upholding that promise. Everyone time someone like Lavrov spoke, he could have been asked aggressively about this and brought back to that fact. (And when whichever Kremlin spokesman started in with the Russian mistreatment claim, they could also have been aggressively countered with: "No mistreatment has gone on; however, as a thought experiment, if Russia were mistreating its Jews or its Chinese minority, would that sanction Israel or China bombing and invading Russia? You in fact have neo-Nazis right now in Russia [as do most/all countries, in small number]: would you be fine with another country invading you to cleanse you of them and demilitarize you?"
(2) China, as I understand it, also signed it (later?), so why haven't we pressed upon China its moral responsibility here? Not that China would necessarily respond, but at least making the point that if they don't even condemn Russia publicly, their word isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
(2) Instead of letting Russia say that they would consider sending fighter jets an act of war and allowing that to set the Overton Window for this situation, the US could have repeatedly told Russia: We signed this Budapest thing so we're legally and morally obliged to support Ukraine, up to and potentially further than offensive weaponry. Unless you want to find out how far we'll go, back off now." (Obviously the US/NATO might well not want boots on the ground [and I personally think boots on the ground to be a very bad idea], but it seems to me that announcing that we would under no circumstances do it was very unwise: since Putin only understands force, letting him know which cards you're unwilling to play dramatically weakens your hand. He's doing this same strategy I'm advocating with nukes: I seriously doubt he'd ever use them, but he's playing that card since it's a strong one; if he instead said publicly that he'd never use nukes here, that would make Western countries much more likely to counter him forcefully.)
I guess what I'm saying is that it has felt to me that we've all been put on our back feet, responding to Russia and letting them set the terms - both the military terms and the rhetorical terms. For instance, news outlets all around the world spent the first two weeks after the invasion discussing the neo-Nazi claim as though it were meaningful in constituting the contours of the conversation when it's actually largely or entirely irrelevant. Etc. Similar idea with Russia constantly talking about the NATO threat and wanting a buffer zone. Why not respond with the fact that it's not the 19th century, countries don't get to demand that other countries around them function as demilitarized buffer zones, what if Ukraine wants a buffer zone from Russia?, that NATO doesn't solicit membership and that maybe Russia should reflect on how many of its neighbors it has invaded over the past century and think about why its neighbors all fear Russia and are eager to join a defensive alliance to help protect themselves from Russia, etc.
posted by ClaireBear at 3:07 PM on March 28, 2022 [22 favorites]
It seems to me that this could have been brought out much more forcefully at much earlier stages for rhetorical and moral strength, in order to set the terms rather than allowing Putin to do so. Some examples:
(1) In every UN discussion, every time that any US official weighed in on the situation, in every communication with Russia, etc., it could have been stressed - especially to Russia - that Russia specifically agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear arsenal, and they are not upholding that promise. Everyone time someone like Lavrov spoke, he could have been asked aggressively about this and brought back to that fact. (And when whichever Kremlin spokesman started in with the Russian mistreatment claim, they could also have been aggressively countered with: "No mistreatment has gone on; however, as a thought experiment, if Russia were mistreating its Jews or its Chinese minority, would that sanction Israel or China bombing and invading Russia? You in fact have neo-Nazis right now in Russia [as do most/all countries, in small number]: would you be fine with another country invading you to cleanse you of them and demilitarize you?"
(2) China, as I understand it, also signed it (later?), so why haven't we pressed upon China its moral responsibility here? Not that China would necessarily respond, but at least making the point that if they don't even condemn Russia publicly, their word isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
(2) Instead of letting Russia say that they would consider sending fighter jets an act of war and allowing that to set the Overton Window for this situation, the US could have repeatedly told Russia: We signed this Budapest thing so we're legally and morally obliged to support Ukraine, up to and potentially further than offensive weaponry. Unless you want to find out how far we'll go, back off now." (Obviously the US/NATO might well not want boots on the ground [and I personally think boots on the ground to be a very bad idea], but it seems to me that announcing that we would under no circumstances do it was very unwise: since Putin only understands force, letting him know which cards you're unwilling to play dramatically weakens your hand. He's doing this same strategy I'm advocating with nukes: I seriously doubt he'd ever use them, but he's playing that card since it's a strong one; if he instead said publicly that he'd never use nukes here, that would make Western countries much more likely to counter him forcefully.)
I guess what I'm saying is that it has felt to me that we've all been put on our back feet, responding to Russia and letting them set the terms - both the military terms and the rhetorical terms. For instance, news outlets all around the world spent the first two weeks after the invasion discussing the neo-Nazi claim as though it were meaningful in constituting the contours of the conversation when it's actually largely or entirely irrelevant. Etc. Similar idea with Russia constantly talking about the NATO threat and wanting a buffer zone. Why not respond with the fact that it's not the 19th century, countries don't get to demand that other countries around them function as demilitarized buffer zones, what if Ukraine wants a buffer zone from Russia?, that NATO doesn't solicit membership and that maybe Russia should reflect on how many of its neighbors it has invaded over the past century and think about why its neighbors all fear Russia and are eager to join a defensive alliance to help protect themselves from Russia, etc.
posted by ClaireBear at 3:07 PM on March 28, 2022 [22 favorites]
Huh. Who has a FT subscription?
Henry Foy: Scoop! - Russia no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks, will allow Kyiv to join EU if it abandons Nato aspirations
Moscow & Kyiv will discuss a pause in hostilities at talks in Turkey tomorrow, and draft documents do not contain three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for Russian language in Ukraine, sources told @FinancialTimes
(Tweet is 3 hrs old on my app)/
posted by cendawanita at 3:47 PM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Henry Foy: Scoop! - Russia no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks, will allow Kyiv to join EU if it abandons Nato aspirations
Moscow & Kyiv will discuss a pause in hostilities at talks in Turkey tomorrow, and draft documents do not contain three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for Russian language in Ukraine, sources told @FinancialTimes
(Tweet is 3 hrs old on my app)/
posted by cendawanita at 3:47 PM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Talking Points Memo summarizes the FT article:
"discussing a ceasefire agreement in which Ukraine would agree not to join NATO but also get NATO-like security guarantees from major European powers and the US. [...] The unknown in these negotiations and the reported draft agreements they are working on is that no one on the Ukrainian side – and I suspect in the US as well – is clear at all about whether Russia is actually seriously considering these potential agreements or simply using them to stall for time or keep the Western powers from imposing more sanctions."
Re: "In every UN discussion [...] it could have been stressed - especially to Russia - that Russia specifically agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear arsenal, and they are not upholding that promise."
Russia knows that. It's not even a treaty, it's a memorandum. The thing about treaties is, they get broken, and reminding Russia that it broke the treaty isn't going to make Russia stop doing so, and it isn't going to change the information/propaganda landscape in Russia or NATO to know this. Nobody's minds will be changed by being reminded of this, and actually a really good propaganda strategy is to flood the zone with pointlessly hypertechnical legal arguments ... or what can be made to sound like pointlessly hypertechnical legal arguments. "INVADING UKRAINE BAD" is a stronger message than "INVADING UKRAINE BAD, but it's bad because of this memorandum from a while ago that says X, Y, and Z."
"No mistreatment has gone on; however, as a thought experiment, if Russia were mistreating its Jews or its Chinese minority, would that sanction Israel or China bombing and invading Russia? You in fact have neo-Nazis right now in Russia [as do most/all countries, in small number]: would you be fine with another country invading you to cleanse you of them and demilitarize you?"
Russia's response would be "the US has launched repeated attacks on us and threats against our sovereign territory to 'cleanse' us of things they don't like; so yes, we do feel very justified in our behavior, thank you for clarifying that our invasion is totally justified."
The point, unfortunately, isn't being legally within boundaries or even morally right; the point is using narrative to control possibilities, to maximize benefits and opportunities to your side and minimize detriments and risks.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:00 PM on March 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
"discussing a ceasefire agreement in which Ukraine would agree not to join NATO but also get NATO-like security guarantees from major European powers and the US. [...] The unknown in these negotiations and the reported draft agreements they are working on is that no one on the Ukrainian side – and I suspect in the US as well – is clear at all about whether Russia is actually seriously considering these potential agreements or simply using them to stall for time or keep the Western powers from imposing more sanctions."
Re: "In every UN discussion [...] it could have been stressed - especially to Russia - that Russia specifically agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and 1994 borders in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear arsenal, and they are not upholding that promise."
Russia knows that. It's not even a treaty, it's a memorandum. The thing about treaties is, they get broken, and reminding Russia that it broke the treaty isn't going to make Russia stop doing so, and it isn't going to change the information/propaganda landscape in Russia or NATO to know this. Nobody's minds will be changed by being reminded of this, and actually a really good propaganda strategy is to flood the zone with pointlessly hypertechnical legal arguments ... or what can be made to sound like pointlessly hypertechnical legal arguments. "INVADING UKRAINE BAD" is a stronger message than "INVADING UKRAINE BAD, but it's bad because of this memorandum from a while ago that says X, Y, and Z."
"No mistreatment has gone on; however, as a thought experiment, if Russia were mistreating its Jews or its Chinese minority, would that sanction Israel or China bombing and invading Russia? You in fact have neo-Nazis right now in Russia [as do most/all countries, in small number]: would you be fine with another country invading you to cleanse you of them and demilitarize you?"
Russia's response would be "the US has launched repeated attacks on us and threats against our sovereign territory to 'cleanse' us of things they don't like; so yes, we do feel very justified in our behavior, thank you for clarifying that our invasion is totally justified."
The point, unfortunately, isn't being legally within boundaries or even morally right; the point is using narrative to control possibilities, to maximize benefits and opportunities to your side and minimize detriments and risks.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:00 PM on March 28, 2022 [6 favorites]
They were told all the times that Ukraine is a failed state with people who work like slaves in Europe and have nothing. Now they see the reality where every gasoline station has a computer-operated coffee machine with 30 types of teas, coffee and hot chocolate, and a whisky bar.
That’s terribly reminiscent of stories I’ve read from fugitives from North Korea, especially one older lady who was kidnapped and taken to China against her will by her escaped daughter, who then spent several weeks in China while the Winter Olympics were being broadcast on Chinese tv.
posted by bq at 4:04 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
That’s terribly reminiscent of stories I’ve read from fugitives from North Korea, especially one older lady who was kidnapped and taken to China against her will by her escaped daughter, who then spent several weeks in China while the Winter Olympics were being broadcast on Chinese tv.
posted by bq at 4:04 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Budapest Memo is best thought of not as a freestanding agreement but rather one of a number of instruments or arrangements that were used to incorporate new post-Soviet states into the extant international system, and really as a kind of codicil or rider to deal with things START left open. It was really about non-proliferation; it's not like Versailles or Yalta something like that.
It obliged signatories not to violate Ukraine's integrity, but the remedy if one did was that the others have to go argue about it in the UN Security Council; once that happens the non-breaching signatories have acquitted themselves.
The language is fairly plain; it says what it says (and not what we might like it to say).
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:06 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
It obliged signatories not to violate Ukraine's integrity, but the remedy if one did was that the others have to go argue about it in the UN Security Council; once that happens the non-breaching signatories have acquitted themselves.
The language is fairly plain; it says what it says (and not what we might like it to say).
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:06 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
NATO never agreed to not take in former Soviet bloc countries, but Putin won't shut up about it. We could stand to do the same.
Reuters: Kazakhstan does not want to be behind new iron curtain, deputy minister says
Reuters: Kazakhstan does not want to be behind new iron curtain, deputy minister says
BERLIN, March 28 (Reuters) - Companies exiting Russia due to the war in Ukraine are welcome to move production to Kazakhstan, the country's deputy foreign minister told a German newspaper, saying Kazakhstan would not want to be on the wrong side of a new "iron curtain."posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:29 PM on March 28, 2022 [5 favorites]
Countries should not come merely to avoid sanctions against Russia, "but all companies with a good reputation that want to move their production here are welcome," Die Welt on Monday quoted Roman Vasilenko as saying.
Of course the government of Kazakhstan just put down a democratic uprising with the help of Russian troops. So their statements are not particularly meaningful.
posted by interogative mood at 5:56 PM on March 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:56 PM on March 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
In the past few days, there have been multiple Russian politicians/government officials calling to expand the "special operation" to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and... Kazakhstan. For the safety of the Russian people, you see.
posted by Flunkie at 6:10 PM on March 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 6:10 PM on March 28, 2022 [9 favorites]
Someone has to go loudly honk their clown nose so the official line can be promoted as more reasonable.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:44 PM on March 28, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:44 PM on March 28, 2022 [17 favorites]
The statements by Duma back benchers are reflect the failure of Russian to understand Russia’s current place in the world in terms of political, economic and military power. They have bought into Putin’s illusion of a Russia restored to superpower status. So they expect that Russia may act accordingly. It’s sad.
posted by interogative mood at 6:52 PM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:52 PM on March 28, 2022 [4 favorites]
Sure, but if I were the anthropomorphized incarnation of Kazakhstan, the fact that Russian pols, all pumped up by their ongoing unjustifiable invasion of another post-Soviet state, are saying that Russia should invade me would have me reevaluating my relationship with Russia. Backbench clowns or not.
posted by Flunkie at 7:10 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 7:10 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Asia check-in:
New Asian Boss voxpop: What The Taiwanese Think of The Russia-Ukraine War and China (in Taipei)
Lausan HK: Last month, Hong Kong anti-war students wrote a letter in support of Ukraine, which elicited an attack by the pro-Beijing press. Read the students' rebuttal on internationalism and socialist self-determination despite targeted harassment by the government: Internationalism Amidst Repression
posted by cendawanita at 9:24 PM on March 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
New Asian Boss voxpop: What The Taiwanese Think of The Russia-Ukraine War and China (in Taipei)
Lausan HK: Last month, Hong Kong anti-war students wrote a letter in support of Ukraine, which elicited an attack by the pro-Beijing press. Read the students' rebuttal on internationalism and socialist self-determination despite targeted harassment by the government: Internationalism Amidst Repression
posted by cendawanita at 9:24 PM on March 28, 2022 [7 favorites]
Extremist Duma backbenchers provide the contrast for, "See, what you get if you do not have ME?" It becomes a point of negotiation and exaggeration for the dear leader to say, "I would like to help you BUT..."
posted by jadepearl at 9:47 PM on March 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 9:47 PM on March 28, 2022 [3 favorites]
Further digging into what Khodorkovsky's people dug up on the financial links between European extreme right and Russian oligarch Malofeev have produced proof Poland was a training ground for pumping up anti-Ukrainian sentiment starting in 2014, plus big support for the ultraconservative Ordo Iuris think tank promoting banning abortion, divorces and other talking points eerily reminiscent of US Republicans. Considering Orban just invited Ordo Iuris to be official observers of the Hungarian election instead of the experienced international OSCE, Orban seems firmly on Putin's payroll as well.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:06 PM on March 28, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:06 PM on March 28, 2022 [19 favorites]
I am glad that Tajikistan is not directly bordering Russia, but if it ever came to it Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan would just be little footnotes to the annexation of Kazakhstan. Sitting in limbo, glad that my current cache is in USD because the Somoni is strongly linked to the Ruble.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:36 PM on March 28, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 10:36 PM on March 28, 2022 [14 favorites]
Asia check-in:
The HK student letters were terrific and edifying. Also, the perfect irony of a group of HK student Marxists' support for Ukraine being actually more Marxist than the central government's.
posted by polymodus at 11:33 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
The HK student letters were terrific and edifying. Also, the perfect irony of a group of HK student Marxists' support for Ukraine being actually more Marxist than the central government's.
posted by polymodus at 11:33 PM on March 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
Well, the CCP is "Marxist" the same way a filthy rich US megachurch pastor is "Christian".
posted by Harald74 at 12:03 AM on March 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:03 AM on March 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
Couple more things from Bret Devereaux, a glossary of military terminology on ACOUP, and a Twitter thread on the damage being done to Russia's military capacity and economy.
I think the big invisible of the conflict is how much damage sanctions are doing to Russia. We can see the harm being done to Ukraine, but not that. Just hope that behind the scenes that's pushing the Russians hard towards an actual peace negotiation.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:15 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
I think the big invisible of the conflict is how much damage sanctions are doing to Russia. We can see the harm being done to Ukraine, but not that. Just hope that behind the scenes that's pushing the Russians hard towards an actual peace negotiation.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:15 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
TheophileEscargot: I think the big invisible of the conflict is how much damage sanctions are doing to Russia. We can see the harm being done to Ukraine, but not that.
We can see some of it. My Dutch newspaper has an article about Russians in the smaller cities, who are trying to buy extras of things like sugar and sunflower oil, but they're rationed in the store and some of it is not available.
Long lines at the market in Saratov.
In other words, we can see that people are worried about goods getting scarce.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:25 AM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
We can see some of it. My Dutch newspaper has an article about Russians in the smaller cities, who are trying to buy extras of things like sugar and sunflower oil, but they're rationed in the store and some of it is not available.
Long lines at the market in Saratov.
In other words, we can see that people are worried about goods getting scarce.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:25 AM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
cendawanita: Scoop! - Russia no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks
In his latest overview of the invasion on the War on the Rocks podcast, Michael Kofman posits that once the Russian army takes Mariupol, it will declare that it has destroyed the Azov Battalion and achieved its denazification target, because in Russian popular consciousness, the battalion is linked to Mariupol, even though, as Kofman points out, they’re only a small part of the defensive forces in the city.
It’s worth listening to the podcast for an overview of where things stand (as of the day before last) in the war.
posted by Kattullus at 12:29 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
In his latest overview of the invasion on the War on the Rocks podcast, Michael Kofman posits that once the Russian army takes Mariupol, it will declare that it has destroyed the Azov Battalion and achieved its denazification target, because in Russian popular consciousness, the battalion is linked to Mariupol, even though, as Kofman points out, they’re only a small part of the defensive forces in the city.
It’s worth listening to the podcast for an overview of where things stand (as of the day before last) in the war.
posted by Kattullus at 12:29 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
If I'm not mistaken, the lack of sunflower oil is a direct consequence of the invasion, with Ukraine being a big exporter, so in that case they made their bed themselves.
posted by Harald74 at 12:30 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:30 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Harald74: they made their bed themselves.
Putin made that bed. It's the Russian people who have to lie in it. Let's be careful not to conflate the two.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:32 AM on March 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
Putin made that bed. It's the Russian people who have to lie in it. Let's be careful not to conflate the two.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:32 AM on March 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
Yeah, Putin himself probably won't feel the lack of sunflower oil, of course. Let's hope the remaining bottles on the shelves all went to non-supporters of the regime and their imperial ambitions.
posted by Harald74 at 12:45 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:45 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
'The question is often raised: Why doesn't the Kremlin know anything about Ukraine?
The short answer is massive imperial Russian contempt, but let me elaborate. During decades of meetings in Moscow, whenever talking about Ukraine, you receive the reaction "yes, small Russians."' - thread by Anders Åslund
It seems ironic that Russian intelligence has been so successful in studying foreign countries with a view to sowing division and de-stabilization - but that it has apparently failed to understand even the ABCs of Ukraine.
posted by rongorongo at 2:21 AM on March 29, 2022 [18 favorites]
The short answer is massive imperial Russian contempt, but let me elaborate. During decades of meetings in Moscow, whenever talking about Ukraine, you receive the reaction "yes, small Russians."' - thread by Anders Åslund
It seems ironic that Russian intelligence has been so successful in studying foreign countries with a view to sowing division and de-stabilization - but that it has apparently failed to understand even the ABCs of Ukraine.
posted by rongorongo at 2:21 AM on March 29, 2022 [18 favorites]
> Surprisingly, a lot of Putin's support comes from older women. I wonder what happens when it registers than their grandson's are dying.
> One reason he's drawing attention here is the distinction between "search for evidence" and "search for hypotheses." Galeev seems to be most valuable in that second way.
@kamilkazani: "I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future: 1. North Korea 2. Imperial Reboot 3. Jubilee. Since Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario 🧵"[1]
What Happens in Russia If Putin Can't Win in Ukraine? "It's tempting to think the strongman could fall and democracy could revive, but a more likely scenario is 'Tehran on the Volga.'"[2]
posted by kliuless at 2:56 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
> One reason he's drawing attention here is the distinction between "search for evidence" and "search for hypotheses." Galeev seems to be most valuable in that second way.
@kamilkazani: "I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future: 1. North Korea 2. Imperial Reboot 3. Jubilee. Since Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario 🧵"[1]
What Happens in Russia If Putin Can't Win in Ukraine? "It's tempting to think the strongman could fall and democracy could revive, but a more likely scenario is 'Tehran on the Volga.'"[2]
posted by kliuless at 2:56 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
expand the "special operation" to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and... Kazakhstan. For the safety of the Russian people, you see.
The kremlin ideology behind this is the concept of the "near abroad", or Karaganov doctrine.
posted by 15L06 at 3:43 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
The kremlin ideology behind this is the concept of the "near abroad", or Karaganov doctrine.
posted by 15L06 at 3:43 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Escape from Irpin: frail residents helped to safety after month of hell by Shaun Walker. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 4:12 AM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Tamara Osypchuk, 72, was a more lively evacuee, crying with joy as she was able to get through by phone to her daughter, who lives in Britain, for the first time in a week and inform her she was safe.Warning: Parts of the article are harrowing.
“I live on the ninth floor and I have problems walking. Today is the first time I’ve been outside in three years,” she said, cloaked in a floor-length fur coat. While most remaining Irpin residents now sleep in basements, she had spent the past month in her apartment, wondering if each explosion would be her last.
“The noise outside was incredible. All the time: bam, bam, bam,” she said, shouting at the top of her voice to indicate the noise. The opposite corner of her apartment building was blown off, but her flat somehow remained unscathed. She said frequent prayer had stopped her from panicking.
“You have to look death in the eyes and not be scared. You should live as a human being, and leave this earth as a human being, with dignity. I wasn’t going to sit in any basement,” she said.
posted by Kattullus at 4:12 AM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
It seems ironic that Russian intelligence has been so successful in studying foreign countries with a view to sowing division and de-stabilization - but that it has apparently failed to understand even the ABCs of Ukraine
I had your comment and that thread in mind when I was reading this twitter thread on archaeology in Ukraine, esp this part: Why are these amazing cities not as well-known?
As @davidwengrow and Graeber argue in the popular, Dawn of Everything: geopolitics. These mega-sites were first excavated in the 1970s, during the Cold War
Modern wars and politics shape what we know about our past.
Understandably Graeber et al have a different way of phrasing that dynamic, but undeniably I am learning how important for me to consider Russian chauvinism as a foundational premise moving forward as i engage with materials from and about the region.
posted by cendawanita at 5:16 AM on March 29, 2022 [32 favorites]
I had your comment and that thread in mind when I was reading this twitter thread on archaeology in Ukraine, esp this part: Why are these amazing cities not as well-known?
As @davidwengrow and Graeber argue in the popular, Dawn of Everything: geopolitics. These mega-sites were first excavated in the 1970s, during the Cold War
Modern wars and politics shape what we know about our past.
Understandably Graeber et al have a different way of phrasing that dynamic, but undeniably I am learning how important for me to consider Russian chauvinism as a foundational premise moving forward as i engage with materials from and about the region.
posted by cendawanita at 5:16 AM on March 29, 2022 [32 favorites]
Thanks, Kattullus, for pointing me to the War on the Rocks podcast. I have no idea how to go about finding good military analysis of the ongoing conflict, and I find most of what I find in newspapers off-putting. War on the Rocks hits a really good tone I find and feels eminently sound, and avoids the histrionics that most media seem to fall into.
posted by Alex404 at 6:09 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Alex404 at 6:09 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Matt Shea and his people have left Poland and the 63 Mariupol orphans have been officially given into the joint custody of the director of the Mariupol orphanage (who finally managed to evacuate and make her way to Poland) and a representative of the local authority of Kazimierz Dolny, where the orphans are currently located. So that's one less shipment of human trafficking into the American evangelical adoption system. Huge kudos to the local authorities who kept an eye on things, and volunteers for keeping up pressure and press on the orphans.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:50 AM on March 29, 2022 [58 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:50 AM on March 29, 2022 [58 favorites]
Here is the video clip of what could prove to be a significant shift in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Speaking on television after talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams in Istanbul, Russia’s deputy defence minister, Alexander Fomin, said Moscow had decided to “radically reduce military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” in order to “increase mutual trust” and create the right conditions to sign peace deal with Ukraine.
posted by adamvasco at 6:57 AM on March 29, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 6:57 AM on March 29, 2022 [10 favorites]
What Happens in Russia If Putin Can't Win in Ukraine?
It seems like he could also adopt the classic American tactic, "Declare victory and leave." Inside the official news vacuum, no one will question him internally, and he's effectively put a huge burden on Ukraine and the EU, which will be supplying billions in aid to help rebuild.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:10 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
It seems like he could also adopt the classic American tactic, "Declare victory and leave." Inside the official news vacuum, no one will question him internally, and he's effectively put a huge burden on Ukraine and the EU, which will be supplying billions in aid to help rebuild.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 7:10 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
How nice of them to make such a show of good faith by not killing/injuring as many innocent people as they have been. I know that as an objective fact it's a good thing and we don't have any other good choices so the folks in the room can't treat that statement like the monstrous stream villainy it is.
But since I can't affect those talks. Ew, gross, I can't believe a person could sleep at night after saying such heinous shit. That should have been a serious, "Karl, are we the baddies?" moment for that man.
posted by VTX at 7:14 AM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
But since I can't affect those talks. Ew, gross, I can't believe a person could sleep at night after saying such heinous shit. That should have been a serious, "Karl, are we the baddies?" moment for that man.
posted by VTX at 7:14 AM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
It seems like he could also adopt the classic American tactic, "Declare victory and leave."
A practice as old as time, as per the battle of Kadesh, commemorated by official Egyptian historiography as Ramses II smiting his enemies.
posted by doggod at 7:33 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
A practice as old as time, as per the battle of Kadesh, commemorated by official Egyptian historiography as Ramses II smiting his enemies.
/ramese-ii-large-56a61c2a5f9b58b7d0dff6a7.jpg){kind=link}
posted by doggod at 7:33 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
What Happens in Russia If Putin Can't Win in Ukraine?
It seems like he could also adopt the classic American tactic, "Declare victory and leave." Inside the official news vacuum, no one will question him internally, and he's effectively put a huge burden on Ukraine and the EU, which will be supplying billions in aid to help rebuild.
I don't think that will work because the war aims were so clear ("denazify" "reincorporate Little Russia" "oust the Pro-Western regime"). While America had bland, hard to measure goals like "ending terrorism" (that also succeeded at regime change), Russia put down exactly what they wanted and then failed to do it. Also, Ukraine is right on the border, and despite the state's best efforts, Russians are going to know what's going on in Ukraine. Finally, the economic repercussions of this invasion to Russia have been devastating. No one sanctioned US for invading Iraq; people in the US could live their entire lives without knowing how the war/occupation was going. Russians don't have that luxury. They are and will continue to intensely feel the economic and social isolation stemming from this war.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 7:35 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
It seems like he could also adopt the classic American tactic, "Declare victory and leave." Inside the official news vacuum, no one will question him internally, and he's effectively put a huge burden on Ukraine and the EU, which will be supplying billions in aid to help rebuild.
I don't think that will work because the war aims were so clear ("denazify" "reincorporate Little Russia" "oust the Pro-Western regime"). While America had bland, hard to measure goals like "ending terrorism" (that also succeeded at regime change), Russia put down exactly what they wanted and then failed to do it. Also, Ukraine is right on the border, and despite the state's best efforts, Russians are going to know what's going on in Ukraine. Finally, the economic repercussions of this invasion to Russia have been devastating. No one sanctioned US for invading Iraq; people in the US could live their entire lives without knowing how the war/occupation was going. Russians don't have that luxury. They are and will continue to intensely feel the economic and social isolation stemming from this war.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 7:35 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Lord Chancellor: I don't think that will work because the war aims were so clear ("denazify" "reincorporate Little Russia" "oust the Pro-Western regime").
Oh no, no, no... no one ever said that. It was a willfully wrong interpretation by the corrupted western media; just propaganda. You only believe you heard that because you've been brainwashed.
Or some such nonsense. When did the Kremlin ever care about what statements they had made previously?
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:44 AM on March 29, 2022 [15 favorites]
Oh no, no, no... no one ever said that. It was a willfully wrong interpretation by the corrupted western media; just propaganda. You only believe you heard that because you've been brainwashed.
Or some such nonsense. When did the Kremlin ever care about what statements they had made previously?
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:44 AM on March 29, 2022 [15 favorites]
a sizable number of people in every country are not even pretending to look for reasons anymore, they are looking for excuses. sometimes the flimsier the excuse, and the more outrage to any reasonable person, just makes it more fun and exciting. today it is Russia and Ukraine, who wants to bet it will be US and Canada, or whatever the northern part of the US calls itself, within the next 20 years? the only "winning" we can hope for is that people stop getting killed and enough of us care to make change happen, pick your imminent threat.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:48 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by elkevelvet at 7:48 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
glad that my current cache is in USD
Just FYI a quick update, we had a really tough time finding anyone to take / exchange USD today and it is falling against the Somoni (linked to Ruble). Strange because I do not see anything online backing this up, but my guess is Russia and / or Tajikistan government trying some short term shenanigans to prop up the local currency.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:57 AM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Just FYI a quick update, we had a really tough time finding anyone to take / exchange USD today and it is falling against the Somoni (linked to Ruble). Strange because I do not see anything online backing this up, but my guess is Russia and / or Tajikistan government trying some short term shenanigans to prop up the local currency.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:57 AM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Roman Hrybov, the Ukrainian soldier who said "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" when asked to surrender, has returned home.
posted by rory at 8:21 AM on March 29, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by rory at 8:21 AM on March 29, 2022 [26 favorites]
After the fashion of the Simpsons,
Hrybov /noun/
1. Ukrainian hero
2. Pull a Hrybov - to survive an internationally legendary military last stand
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:01 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Hrybov /noun/
1. Ukrainian hero
2. Pull a Hrybov - to survive an internationally legendary military last stand
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:01 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Gary Kasparov
Putin's tactic has always been to take territory by force and then sue for peace while he consolidates and rearms. His victims are pressured by the West to accept anything so they can get back to business as usual. Not again.
posted by adamvasco at 9:12 AM on March 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
Putin's tactic has always been to take territory by force and then sue for peace while he consolidates and rearms. His victims are pressured by the West to accept anything so they can get back to business as usual. Not again.
posted by adamvasco at 9:12 AM on March 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
The declare victory and leave version I've heard is that the Azov Brigade is gone, so call it de-Nazification. Victory!
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:43 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:43 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
That should have been a serious, "Karl, are we the baddies?" moment for that man.
Or even, amirite,
"Hans, are we the baddies?"
posted by y2karl at 9:46 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Or even, amirite,
"Hans, are we the baddies?"
posted by y2karl at 9:46 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not to get all „Rah rah!“ but there is a certain amount of… I read somewhere in the last couple days that “ you do not appease aggression.” Which is… true : yes Russia/Putin has (in some measure (does he really really? I find myself thinking lately, or is it like the night vision goggles?) ) nuclear weapons but, still, you can confront him consequently without having them come into play.
It was the root of Biden’s ‘gaff’ - to use the colloquial, “fuck this guy”. And it was 100% right. It appears they might well have poisoned the members of the early March diplomatic talks - (seriously?) - there’s a point after which… there is no more appeasing to be done, there’s no more room.
I’m not advocating a land war in Asia (far-east Europe), but I am advocating changing the parameters of any “discussions” with Putin.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:46 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
It was the root of Biden’s ‘gaff’ - to use the colloquial, “fuck this guy”. And it was 100% right. It appears they might well have poisoned the members of the early March diplomatic talks - (seriously?) - there’s a point after which… there is no more appeasing to be done, there’s no more room.
I’m not advocating a land war in Asia (far-east Europe), but I am advocating changing the parameters of any “discussions” with Putin.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:46 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
I’m not advocating a land war in Asia (far-east Europe), but I am advocating changing the parameters of any “discussions” with Putin.
I do not think Ukrainians are going to accept too much that looks like a victory for Putin. And internationally as weel, the people seem to have woken up. Letting him do his standard thing here just isn't going to play.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:08 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
I do not think Ukrainians are going to accept too much that looks like a victory for Putin. And internationally as weel, the people seem to have woken up. Letting him do his standard thing here just isn't going to play.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:08 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
Just FYI a quick update, we had a really tough time finding anyone to take / exchange USD today and it is falling against the Somoni (linked to Ruble). Strange because I do not see anything online backing this up, but my guess is Russia and / or Tajikistan government trying some short term shenanigans to prop up the local currency.Russia has basically stopped all currency going out and is forcing all exporters to sell 80% of their hard currency into rubles within days of receiving it. So there's a situation where Western businesses can't liquidate anything and most of what's coming in is going back out to artificially limit the ruble. It's like how Russia opened its stock exchange but basically prohibited anyone outside Russia from doing anything and the damage wasn't nearly as bad as it would have been if every foreigner with Russian exposure basically dumped it.
But this basically kicks the can down the road. There's still a lot that Western markets can do to make Russia's life a living hell. Impounding energy revenues oil-for-food style would be the next stage and as the weather gets warmer I hope the West has the balls to dare Russia to shut off its energy in response.
Putin's tactic has always been to take territory by force and then sue for peace while he consolidates and rearms. His victims are pressured by the West to accept anything so they can get back to business as usual. Not again.The biggest difference between this and Georgia/Crimea is that both of those were pretty much fait accompli. Georgia was a very small and quick war. It was over in less than two weeks, Russia was involved for 48 hours of it. The Crimean takeover was instantaneous and practically bloodless. There's a lot of "what can you do?" shoulder shrugging when that happens. You can penalize Russia but the de facto situation on the ground won't change.
Any Ukrainian peace is going to be a lot less harder for Russia to affect unilaterally because if the Ukrainians are ok with the attrition and the West keeps arming them they will win the war. The war industrial output of Russia has effectively been stopped. They can't make new tanks. They can't make new missiles. They're having to commandeer and refit civilian infrastructure that won't stand up to wartime use. What Putin has now is all he's going to get for a long time. I really hope the West leaves it up to the Ukrainians to decide on their fate and that they support them with whatever resources necessary to achieve it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:10 AM on March 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
New Amanpour & Co. interviews with former Russian Duma member Ponomarev, the only one to vote against annexation of Crimea and now fighting for Ukraine; and with Fiona Hill re: Putin, regime change, potential outcomes, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:13 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:13 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russia can keep blowing up fuel storage sites, putting pressure on Ukraine's fuel supplies, which appears to be their current tactic.
posted by acb at 10:15 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 10:15 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
That should have been a serious, "Karl, are we the baddies?" moment for that man.
Perhaps too speculative here, but Putin and his ilk do not strike me as people who could be troubled to pose that question to themselves, let alone be troubled by the posing of that question.
posted by obliterati at 10:16 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
Perhaps too speculative here, but Putin and his ilk do not strike me as people who could be troubled to pose that question to themselves, let alone be troubled by the posing of that question.
posted by obliterati at 10:16 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
Has there been any clarification about under which conditions Western sanctions will be removed? I'm very happy with Ukrainians doing their own calculus and deciding what peace terms they're willing to accept. But I feel pretty strongly that the West should be clear that sanctions on Russia will remain until they are completely out of Crimea and the Donbas. (In my fantasy world, I'd love sanctions to remain until Russia pays for the damage it causes rather than it having to come out of the US's and EU's pocketbooks, which I'm sure Putin is delighted by....) Will sanctions automatically be lifted if Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty?
posted by ClaireBear at 10:17 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by ClaireBear at 10:17 AM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
Newsweek: Russia finally rules out using nuclear weapons over Ukraine war
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said Russia is not considering turning to nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, and reiterated Moscow's stance that the use of such capabilities would only follow a "threat for existence."posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:21 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Peskov told PBS "no one is thinking about [...] using a nuclear weapon," and that the Ukrainian conflict has "nothing to do with" any threat to Russia's existence. The comments come a week after on CNN he repeatedly refused to rule out that Russia would consider nuclear force against an "existential threat."
Will sanctions automatically be lifted if Ukraine and Russia sign a peace treaty?
No, not "automatically" across the board in the sense of mechanically and in a predetermined fashion.
And some are effectively irrevesible in the short to medium term and haven't even properly hit yet; the removal of Russia from the BRIC 'emerging markets' and reclassification as 'standalone' in early march will require a huge selloff by ETFs that now need to dump all Russian holdings while Russia tries to hold its stock market sort of half-open.
(Sanctions are a land of contrasts...)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:22 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
No, not "automatically" across the board in the sense of mechanically and in a predetermined fashion.
And some are effectively irrevesible in the short to medium term and haven't even properly hit yet; the removal of Russia from the BRIC 'emerging markets' and reclassification as 'standalone' in early march will require a huge selloff by ETFs that now need to dump all Russian holdings while Russia tries to hold its stock market sort of half-open.
(Sanctions are a land of contrasts...)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:22 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Oh good, let's just send the NATO troops in right away, then! I mean... Is he just saying that to bait us?
No. Any efforts of NATO to quell strikes on Ukraine would involve striking targets in Russian and Belorussian territory. That would be the "threat for existence" that Peskov would be talking about. This is part of the "we don't want to escalate shit" that Western governments and NATO have been pedantic about. This is basically a signal to NATO that they won't drop a tac nuke on an empty area outside Kharkiv while warning Ukraine should they get ideas of going past the border and striking at Belgorod.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:31 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
No. Any efforts of NATO to quell strikes on Ukraine would involve striking targets in Russian and Belorussian territory. That would be the "threat for existence" that Peskov would be talking about. This is part of the "we don't want to escalate shit" that Western governments and NATO have been pedantic about. This is basically a signal to NATO that they won't drop a tac nuke on an empty area outside Kharkiv while warning Ukraine should they get ideas of going past the border and striking at Belgorod.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:31 AM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also possibly spooked by the regime change talk (or buildup in neighboring countries) and so looking to signal that they still intend to stick to Cold War escalatory frameworks and rules of engagement (including as to intervention to prevent imminent use).
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:32 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:32 AM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
We've been asked repeatedly not to discuss in this thread the possibility of nuclear escalation if NATO intervenes. For that reason, I've set up a thread where that conversation would be appropriate.
You can't fight in here, this is the nuclear war thread
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:33 AM on March 29, 2022 [36 favorites]
You can't fight in here, this is the nuclear war thread
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:33 AM on March 29, 2022 [36 favorites]
"The Russian military said Tuesday that it had "drastically" reduced its military activity near the Ukraine capital of Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv as talks with Ukraine aimed at ending the war entered the “practical” stage. Russia and Ukraine held face-to-face talks Tuesday in Turkey as the United Nations pressed for a cease-fire for Russia's brutal invasion. The talks took place in the Turkish presidential office in Istanbul and lasted more than three hours, Russia's Tass reported." (USA Today)
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:34 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:34 AM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Putin's tactic has always been to take territory by force and then sue for peace while he consolidates and rearms. His victims are pressured by the West to accept anything so they can get back to business as usual. Not again.
My personal fantasy is that any peace agreement will require Russia to participate in a truth and reconciliation process. Or to let Ukraine have 24 hours of control over the content for Russian national television. A pipe dream, I'm sure, but Ukraine's shown such awareness of the power of communication that I wonder if they've considered demanding something along those lines.
Countries (including mine) keep doing inhuman things in citizens' names and too many citizens, ignorant of what exactly those things are, support their governments or are willing to stand aside passively. There are always going to be people who minimize or justify horrors, but manufactured ignorance is an overwhelming weapon for these countries, and disarmament ought to be required.
posted by trig at 10:59 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
My personal fantasy is that any peace agreement will require Russia to participate in a truth and reconciliation process. Or to let Ukraine have 24 hours of control over the content for Russian national television. A pipe dream, I'm sure, but Ukraine's shown such awareness of the power of communication that I wonder if they've considered demanding something along those lines.
Countries (including mine) keep doing inhuman things in citizens' names and too many citizens, ignorant of what exactly those things are, support their governments or are willing to stand aside passively. There are always going to be people who minimize or justify horrors, but manufactured ignorance is an overwhelming weapon for these countries, and disarmament ought to be required.
posted by trig at 10:59 AM on March 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Relatedly, on the sanctions talk:
Eddie Fishman: Sanctions against Russia have been unprecedented in speed, the scale of targets, and international cooperation.
But they are NOT comprehensive. They remain a 7/10 or 8/10 in intensity, not a 10/10.
A few myths that require correcting (🧵):
posted by cendawanita at 11:04 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Eddie Fishman: Sanctions against Russia have been unprecedented in speed, the scale of targets, and international cooperation.
But they are NOT comprehensive. They remain a 7/10 or 8/10 in intensity, not a 10/10.
A few myths that require correcting (🧵):
posted by cendawanita at 11:04 AM on March 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Newsweek: Russia Finally Rules Out Using Nuclear Weapons Over Ukraine War
You can't honestly consider Newsweek a legitimate news source anymore. They are repeating Kremlin talking points, like other far-right outlets (and a certain ex-president). Let's avoid linking them as if they are reputable.
posted by rikschell at 12:56 PM on March 29, 2022 [13 favorites]
You can't honestly consider Newsweek a legitimate news source anymore. They are repeating Kremlin talking points, like other far-right outlets (and a certain ex-president). Let's avoid linking them as if they are reputable.
posted by rikschell at 12:56 PM on March 29, 2022 [13 favorites]
You can't honestly consider Newsweek a legitimate news source anymore.
The PBS interview where Putin's spokesman Peskov makes the statement.
posted by Reverend John at 1:14 PM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
The PBS interview where Putin's spokesman Peskov makes the statement.
posted by Reverend John at 1:14 PM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Jon Meacham ran it into the ground with a lot of moralizing pablum to the point it couldn't be found outside of waiting rooms (and no longer has his many years as its editor on his shortform bio, lol); and ultimately WaPo sold it for a buck and its liabilities (when the Grahams were still running the company, IIRC). From there it went to vampires who kept it on life support so they could sell sponsored content spots and use it for money laundering.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:27 PM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:27 PM on March 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
> hippybear: "I don't know when or how they lost their way, but they fell down a lot of notches for me several years ago."
Long story short: they were bought by a cult (probably) back in 2013. I don't know if they're 100% unreliable now, though. Last I checked, they had a kind of strange mix of regular news stuff and weird right-wing stuff.
posted by mhum at 3:00 PM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Long story short: they were bought by a cult (probably) back in 2013. I don't know if they're 100% unreliable now, though. Last I checked, they had a kind of strange mix of regular news stuff and weird right-wing stuff.
posted by mhum at 3:00 PM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
There is a lot of skepticism on the viability of negotiating with Putin and the Russian government, that they will only respond to action. Today with the "peace talks" in Turkey (where the Ukrainians were warned not to eat or drink anything) there were reduced requirement by the Russians. Perhaps Zelensky gave the most effective response: celebratory fireworks in Belgorod, a Russian town just over the boarder.
posted by sammyo at 3:18 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by sammyo at 3:18 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Are Molotov cocktails effective against Russian armored vehicles? Answer: If they are buttoned up (hatches closed), not really. Tanks and APCs are sealed up for amphibious capability and NBC protection, periscopes used so the crews can see out have air jets for clearing, engine compartments have active fire suppression.
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:47 PM on March 29, 2022
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:47 PM on March 29, 2022
Presuming the tanks are well maintained. Even in the US Army, former tankers commonly recount that the filters in the Abrams were unreliable at best (and the 'NBC' seals too). Fire suppression systems have to be maintained too. If you're filling your ERA pouches with sand and cardboard, other things are also likely to be neglected and not up to spec.
It can also keep the tank crew busy, blinded and/or buttoned up while some other attack is made on it or units move around it. Or to let people get away from it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
It can also keep the tank crew busy, blinded and/or buttoned up while some other attack is made on it or units move around it. Or to let people get away from it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:53 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
I generally have little to no interest in politicos but I'd love to 'have a beer' with Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine's UN rep.
@SergiyKyslytsya
at the #UNSC meeting on the humanitarian situation in #Ukraine: “At the outset, I would like to inform you that the demilitarization of Russia conducted by the Ukrainian Army and supported by the entire Ukrainian people is well underway”.
(that's how you negotiate with Putin ;-)
posted by sammyo at 3:58 PM on March 29, 2022 [38 favorites]
@SergiyKyslytsya
at the #UNSC meeting on the humanitarian situation in #Ukraine: “At the outset, I would like to inform you that the demilitarization of Russia conducted by the Ukrainian Army and supported by the entire Ukrainian people is well underway”.
(that's how you negotiate with Putin ;-)
posted by sammyo at 3:58 PM on March 29, 2022 [38 favorites]
Are Molotov cocktails effective against Russian armored vehicles? Answer: If they are buttoned up (hatches closed), not really.
The videos that I recall from early in the conflict were of them being used against unarmored vehicles, and they are certainly effective for that.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:19 PM on March 29, 2022
The videos that I recall from early in the conflict were of them being used against unarmored vehicles, and they are certainly effective for that.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:19 PM on March 29, 2022
Re: the explosion in Belgorod, Russia (near Ukraine)
marqs on Twitter (Not sure who that is, but they include Russian links)
This tweet purports to show (video embedded) Russian soldiers unloading anti-tank mines near Lugansk, which might explain some things. Apparently it's true that pallets are foreign to them.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:41 PM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
marqs on Twitter (Not sure who that is, but they include Russian links)
BREAKING: #Russia is accusing #Ukraine of shelling Belgorod. Four servicemen were wounded when a shell hit a "military town" in the Russian oblast - TASSThe latter is most likely. Not only is Belgorod out of artillery range, but Russian ammunition dump explosions are a nearly annual event. 2019 2020
Seem like they can not decide on what they want it to be. RIA now reports the explosion in Belgorod was a result of human error.
This tweet purports to show (video embedded) Russian soldiers unloading anti-tank mines near Lugansk, which might explain some things. Apparently it's true that pallets are foreign to them.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:41 PM on March 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Germany may prosecute use of pro-Russia ‘Z’ symbol
A spokesperson for the federal government’s Interior Ministry told reporters: “The letter Z as such is of course not forbidden, but its use may in individual cases constitute an endorsement of the Russian war of aggression.”
It's not mentioned in the article but here's the relevant section of the German penal code.
It's Germany's history which prompts this peculiar approach to free speech of course.
I did see a clip of a pro-russian protesters in Germany earlier this week. What a bunch of miserable dickheads.
posted by adept256 at 5:32 PM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
A spokesperson for the federal government’s Interior Ministry told reporters: “The letter Z as such is of course not forbidden, but its use may in individual cases constitute an endorsement of the Russian war of aggression.”
It's not mentioned in the article but here's the relevant section of the German penal code.
Section 140 - Rewarding and approval of offencesSo being a cheerleader for crime is a crime itself, and since the invasion is illegal, so is showing support for it.
Whoever
1. rewards or
2. approves of publicly, in a meeting or by disseminating material (section 11 (3)) in a manner which is suitable for causing a disturbance of the public peace one of the unlawful acts referred to in section [list of offences]
It's Germany's history which prompts this peculiar approach to free speech of course.
I did see a clip of a pro-russian protesters in Germany earlier this week. What a bunch of miserable dickheads.
posted by adept256 at 5:32 PM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
In BC, new drivers must display a green "N" symbol, given out by the insurance corp, on the rear of their cars. Naturally, many young people will display them sideways.
I doubt (m)any are pro-Russia, but the flagrant display of Canadian flags by the clownvoy antivaxx "protestors" has me side-eying prominent displays of the Canadian flag already.
posted by porpoise at 6:04 PM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
I doubt (m)any are pro-Russia, but the flagrant display of Canadian flags by the clownvoy antivaxx "protestors" has me side-eying prominent displays of the Canadian flag already.
posted by porpoise at 6:04 PM on March 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Kyiv Independent: ⚡️Pentagon: Russian troop movement near Kyiv possibly 'repositioning, not a real withdrawal.'
Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said the small number of Russian forces withdrawing from Kyiv are “not anywhere near the majority of what they have arrayed against Kyiv."
Kirby also noted that Russia continued airstrikes against the Kyiv “even today.”
In a briefing, U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. will rely on the actions of the Russian military, not their words.
posted by cendawanita at 7:06 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said the small number of Russian forces withdrawing from Kyiv are “not anywhere near the majority of what they have arrayed against Kyiv."
Kirby also noted that Russia continued airstrikes against the Kyiv “even today.”
In a briefing, U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. will rely on the actions of the Russian military, not their words.
posted by cendawanita at 7:06 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
This might be of interest, as local colour to the tangent regarding the Eastern Orthodox schism:
Slava Malamud (translating the tweet he's RT-ing): A priest of the Moscow Patriarchy in Ukraine (a brief explainer of Ukraine church's schism in next tweet) refused to pray for a fallen Ukrainian soldier and started praying for Putin instead. He was beaten up and thrown out of the church by his own parishioners.
[...] The Ukrainian Parliament will likely ban the Moscow Patriarchy very soon. It is basically Putin's propaganda arm in Ukraine, under the guise of religion.
But faith and respect for rituals are apparently no longer protecting Putin's priest agents. Ukrainians have had enough.>
posted by cendawanita at 7:20 PM on March 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
Slava Malamud (translating the tweet he's RT-ing): A priest of the Moscow Patriarchy in Ukraine (a brief explainer of Ukraine church's schism in next tweet) refused to pray for a fallen Ukrainian soldier and started praying for Putin instead. He was beaten up and thrown out of the church by his own parishioners.
[...] The Ukrainian Parliament will likely ban the Moscow Patriarchy very soon. It is basically Putin's propaganda arm in Ukraine, under the guise of religion.
But faith and respect for rituals are apparently no longer protecting Putin's priest agents. Ukrainians have had enough.>
posted by cendawanita at 7:20 PM on March 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
"A priest of the Moscow Patriarchy in Ukraine [...] refused to pray for a fallen Ukrainian soldier and started praying for Putin instead. He was beaten up and thrown out of the church by his own parishioners."
Similarly, from the Kyiv Independent yesterday:
Allegedly, early in March, Russian agents/soldiers entered the Cathedral at St. Michael's in Kyiv multiple times to attempt to assassinate Epiphanius. Reporting is spotty and I wouldn't take it as gospel (I'm hilarious), but it is definitely possible (and seems probable Russia would at least attempt it, big Thomas Becket vibes).
While he isn't popping up in a lot of English-language press, he's done a pretty amazing job of pushing pro-Ukraine narratives in Orthodox countries and in the European religious press. (And in the American religious press that isn't fundamentalist evangelical, but it's such a divided space it's hard to generalize without 4700 caveats.) He's not S-tier at being in the press or moving public opinion, but I think he's been a surprisingly solid A-tier, which nobody really expected from him. He has also managed to not make any complete fuck-up statements that made the international press, which is totally rare for a top religious figure (in any religion), and is a good sign. (Like, I am cynical, I've been following Christian church leaders in a variety of denominations for 25 years now, I totally expect him to eventually make a horrifying statement, but SO FAR he has not, and that is heartening.) (The eventual horrifying statement will be about sex and sexuality; I offer no odds as it is a sure thing.)
I am trying to find a good visual chart of Eastern Orthodox churches, Eastern Catholic churches, and the variety of other churches in play, but have not yet; if I do I will post it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:46 PM on March 29, 2022 [48 favorites]
Similarly, from the Kyiv Independent yesterday:
"⚡️Additional 100 Ukrainian communities transitioning to Orthodox Church of Ukraine.Epiphanius is the head of the Autocephalus Orthodox Church of Ukraine, the one the Patriarch of Constantinople authorized against the wishes of Moscow's Patriarch. (Also, Epiphanius is an awesome bishop name.) He has remained in Kyiv during the invasion, for much the same reasons Zelenskyy has, and with similar offers to evacuate him.
Ukrainian Orthodox Church leader Metropolitan Epiphanius I urges more Ukrainian communities to move from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) to the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
Allegedly, early in March, Russian agents/soldiers entered the Cathedral at St. Michael's in Kyiv multiple times to attempt to assassinate Epiphanius. Reporting is spotty and I wouldn't take it as gospel (I'm hilarious), but it is definitely possible (and seems probable Russia would at least attempt it, big Thomas Becket vibes).
While he isn't popping up in a lot of English-language press, he's done a pretty amazing job of pushing pro-Ukraine narratives in Orthodox countries and in the European religious press. (And in the American religious press that isn't fundamentalist evangelical, but it's such a divided space it's hard to generalize without 4700 caveats.) He's not S-tier at being in the press or moving public opinion, but I think he's been a surprisingly solid A-tier, which nobody really expected from him. He has also managed to not make any complete fuck-up statements that made the international press, which is totally rare for a top religious figure (in any religion), and is a good sign. (Like, I am cynical, I've been following Christian church leaders in a variety of denominations for 25 years now, I totally expect him to eventually make a horrifying statement, but SO FAR he has not, and that is heartening.) (The eventual horrifying statement will be about sex and sexuality; I offer no odds as it is a sure thing.)
I am trying to find a good visual chart of Eastern Orthodox churches, Eastern Catholic churches, and the variety of other churches in play, but have not yet; if I do I will post it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:46 PM on March 29, 2022 [48 favorites]
Meduza's Kevin Rothrock on Twitter
I expect corkboard and string.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:57 PM on March 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
Lawmakers in Kyiv have reportedly drafted legislation that would effectively ban the Russian Orthodox Church’s activities and seize its property in Ukraine.I am trying to find a good visual chart of Eastern Orthodox churches, Eastern Catholic churches, and the variety of other churches in play
I expect corkboard and string.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:57 PM on March 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
Interview with an anarchist activist in Kyiv.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:27 PM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:27 PM on March 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
Understanding War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29:
The Russians have not yet abandoned their attacks on Kyiv, claims by Russian Defense Ministry officials notwithstanding. Russian forces continued fighting to hold their forwardmost positions on the eastern and western Kyiv outskirts even as badly damaged units withdrew to Russia from elsewhere on the Kyiv and Chernihiv axes. The Russian high command has likely concluded that it cannot seize Kyiv and may not be able to move artillery closer to the center of the city. It may have decided to stop its previous practices of forcing units that have already taken devastating losses to continue hopeless offensive operations and of feeding individual battalion tactical groups into the battle as they become available rather than concentrating them to achieve decisive effects. Russian officials are likely casting these decisions driven by military realities as overtures demonstrating Russia’s willingness to engage in serious ceasefire or peace negotiations, possibly to conceal the fact that they have accepted the failure of their efforts on the Kyiv axis.posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:36 PM on March 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Anadolu Post: France calls off Mariupol evacuation operation after phone call with Putin
France called off a much-anticipated humanitarian operation in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol following a phone exchange between President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, BFMTV news reported Tuesday.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:38 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
The president’s office announced that the operation was not possible "at this stage" following Putin’s reaction. The call, which lasted an hour, reached a dead end and failed to yield any progress, the office said.
“The conditions for launching the humanitarian operation to help the civilians of Mariupol, who are besieged by the Russian army, are not met at this stage,” the Elysee Palace said after the phone call, according to the report.
Putin reportedly told Macron that he would think about the operation before giving any answer, the report added, quoting sources from the Elysee.
Also from the Understanding War update, they expect Mariupol to fall within a matter of days.
This is one of the few "victories" that Russia can claim - the land bridge to Crimea. The optimist in me says that they could call for a ceasefire/limited victory here, and withdraw from the northern parts of Ukraine to rebuild while they move defenses into Mariupol and the associated areas.
Alternatively they could also start moving those forces north to capture more of eastern Ukraine, showing that they have enough resources and logistics to extend the war.
posted by meowzilla at 10:22 PM on March 29, 2022
This is one of the few "victories" that Russia can claim - the land bridge to Crimea. The optimist in me says that they could call for a ceasefire/limited victory here, and withdraw from the northern parts of Ukraine to rebuild while they move defenses into Mariupol and the associated areas.
Alternatively they could also start moving those forces north to capture more of eastern Ukraine, showing that they have enough resources and logistics to extend the war.
posted by meowzilla at 10:22 PM on March 29, 2022
The UW update shows Russian forces about 90 km from Zaporizhzhia. This is an objective for it's industrial capacity.
"The Russian military attacks were successfully repulsed in Zaporizhzhia region last night and in the morning."
posted by clavdivs at 10:53 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
"The Russian military attacks were successfully repulsed in Zaporizhzhia region last night and in the morning."
posted by clavdivs at 10:53 PM on March 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
Mefi fave Hania Rani has released Kyiv (label Gondwana is donating all proceeds to Ukraine).
posted by progosk at 2:12 AM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by progosk at 2:12 AM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
"In short, Petro Poroshenko, the president elected in 2014 was a conservative politician, who made some populist moves along with some tries to reduce Russian soft power in Ukraine, such as creation of a new independent Ukrainian orthodox Christian church, support of Ukrainian language, etc."
So Poroshenko should be viewed as someone who laid some important groundwork even if he wasn't a great leader generally.
From the interview with an anarchist linked by TheophilueEscargot.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:32 AM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
So Poroshenko should be viewed as someone who laid some important groundwork even if he wasn't a great leader generally.
From the interview with an anarchist linked by TheophilueEscargot.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:32 AM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
Crowd-funded group stopped the armored column)
"In its early days, the unit used commercial surveillance drones, but its team of engineers, software designers and drone enthusiasts later developed their own designs.
They built a range of surveillance drones, as well as large 1.5-metre eight-rotor machines capable of dropping bombs and rocket-propelled anti-tank grenades, and created a system called Delta, a network of sensors along the frontlines that fed into a digital map so commanders could see enemy movements as they happened. It now uses the Starlink satellite system, supplied by Elon Musk, to feed live data to Ukrainian artillery units, allowing them to zero in on Russian targets."
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:44 AM on March 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
"In its early days, the unit used commercial surveillance drones, but its team of engineers, software designers and drone enthusiasts later developed their own designs.
They built a range of surveillance drones, as well as large 1.5-metre eight-rotor machines capable of dropping bombs and rocket-propelled anti-tank grenades, and created a system called Delta, a network of sensors along the frontlines that fed into a digital map so commanders could see enemy movements as they happened. It now uses the Starlink satellite system, supplied by Elon Musk, to feed live data to Ukrainian artillery units, allowing them to zero in on Russian targets."
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 3:44 AM on March 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
For more about anarchists in Ukraine, read up about Nestor Makhno and the Black Army, formally the Revolutionary Insurgent Army of Ukraine, in the Russian Civil War.
posted by Harald74 at 5:04 AM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:04 AM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
(People are dying of starvation and thirst in Mariupol–the ones not already dead or dying from the bombs, I mean–and we know it and we cannot do anything about it and I do not understand how this is possible. Clearly, it is happening. Clearly, nobody reading this can stop this obscenity. I am so sad. Apologies for the derail.)
According to a Swedish Television report, some Ukrainian children have started school this week in the small town of Älmhult, which is famous in Sweden for being the headquarters of Ikea. From the report (in Swedish originally, my translation): "Teachers say the other children are interested in their new classmates. 'We have many students at this school who come from war-plagued regions. They know what it's like to flee and leave their homes and say they want to play with the Ukrainian children so they will be glad,' says teacher Eva Vrba Lundgren."
From Radio Free Europe, a US-funded nonprofit: "Russia has been sustaining 'incredible' losses since the start of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a senior U.S. State Department official says, putting the figure at more than 10,000 killed since the attack was launched just over a month ago.
The UN now estimates just over 4 million refugees have fled Ukraine since February 24, 2022.
posted by Bella Donna at 6:12 AM on March 30, 2022 [17 favorites]
According to a Swedish Television report, some Ukrainian children have started school this week in the small town of Älmhult, which is famous in Sweden for being the headquarters of Ikea. From the report (in Swedish originally, my translation): "Teachers say the other children are interested in their new classmates. 'We have many students at this school who come from war-plagued regions. They know what it's like to flee and leave their homes and say they want to play with the Ukrainian children so they will be glad,' says teacher Eva Vrba Lundgren."
From Radio Free Europe, a US-funded nonprofit: "Russia has been sustaining 'incredible' losses since the start of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a senior U.S. State Department official says, putting the figure at more than 10,000 killed since the attack was launched just over a month ago.
The UN now estimates just over 4 million refugees have fled Ukraine since February 24, 2022.
posted by Bella Donna at 6:12 AM on March 30, 2022 [17 favorites]
Crowd-funded group stopped the armored column.
I'd like to donate to help them, but I don't see how.
posted by NotLost at 6:34 AM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'd like to donate to help them, but I don't see how.
posted by NotLost at 6:34 AM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Economist on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:52 AM on March 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ninety-two per cent of American respondents over the age of 64 said they sympathised more with Ukraine than with Russia. Yet just 56% of those aged 18-29 answered the sameThe bulk of the others are 'unsure'.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:52 AM on March 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'd like to donate to help them, but I don't see how.
If you click on the link with the name of the group at the start of the article, it takes you to their homepage which has a donate button.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:07 AM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
If you click on the link with the name of the group at the start of the article, it takes you to their homepage which has a donate button.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:07 AM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
I understand the ambivalence of the younger people
When this invasion started a few weeks ago, I took some time at the top of a class I teach to discuss what had happened, and I answered questions as neutrally and non-politically as possible. This is a mid-level, undergraduate class, so most students are ~19-22 years old, and they had A LOT of questions. They mostly were really puzzled as to why so many (older) adults around them were so obviously worried about this, and I learned that they had no real sense of the Cold War nor of Mutually Assured Destruction: being born around or after 9/11, most of the foreign policy and global threat sort of talk in their awareness has been about terrorism and the Middle East, and they have never really had to think of Russia (or any nuclear power) as a possible global threat. So this is a real wake-up for them (and yet another existential worry to add to climate change and pandemic in their minds), and discovering this kind of perceptual gap was very informative for me, too.
posted by LooseFilter at 8:21 AM on March 30, 2022 [54 favorites]
When this invasion started a few weeks ago, I took some time at the top of a class I teach to discuss what had happened, and I answered questions as neutrally and non-politically as possible. This is a mid-level, undergraduate class, so most students are ~19-22 years old, and they had A LOT of questions. They mostly were really puzzled as to why so many (older) adults around them were so obviously worried about this, and I learned that they had no real sense of the Cold War nor of Mutually Assured Destruction: being born around or after 9/11, most of the foreign policy and global threat sort of talk in their awareness has been about terrorism and the Middle East, and they have never really had to think of Russia (or any nuclear power) as a possible global threat. So this is a real wake-up for them (and yet another existential worry to add to climate change and pandemic in their minds), and discovering this kind of perceptual gap was very informative for me, too.
posted by LooseFilter at 8:21 AM on March 30, 2022 [54 favorites]
Anyone under 30 has not known Russia as USSR.
Also, to further illustrate, I don't think any of the students in that particular class even recognized the names "USSR" or "Soviet Union" beyond 'isn't that what Russia used to be called for some reason?'
posted by LooseFilter at 8:25 AM on March 30, 2022 [13 favorites]
Also, to further illustrate, I don't think any of the students in that particular class even recognized the names "USSR" or "Soviet Union" beyond 'isn't that what Russia used to be called for some reason?'
posted by LooseFilter at 8:25 AM on March 30, 2022 [13 favorites]
Business Insider: Putin's senior advisors are feeding him bad information about the Ukrainian invasion because they're 'too afraid to tell him the truth,' NBC reports
"We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions, because his senior advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth," said the official told NBC News, citing declassified intelligence.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:31 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
"Putin didn't even know his military was using and losing conscripts in Ukraine, showing a clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information to the Russian president," the official added.
A former KGB agent who is now President of Russia and is in regular, if antagonistic, contact with other world leaders doesn't know how things are going in Ukraine? Baloney.
If he is relying on bad info its by his own choice to avoid facing how monumentally he misjudged the difficulty in conquering Ukraine. He might be indulging in massive confirmation bias, but there's no way this man is being unwillingly misled by his advisors.
There's no way he doesn't know that Kyiv hasn't fallen and that thousands of his troops have been killed in a month.
If anything this article is wishful thinking by our press, imagining that if only Putin knew how bad things were going he might change course.
I suspect Putin knows how things are going and is satisfied that things are progressing sufficiently in the south and east of Ukraine to accept the setbacks around Kyiv.
posted by Reverend John at 8:45 AM on March 30, 2022 [15 favorites]
If he is relying on bad info its by his own choice to avoid facing how monumentally he misjudged the difficulty in conquering Ukraine. He might be indulging in massive confirmation bias, but there's no way this man is being unwillingly misled by his advisors.
There's no way he doesn't know that Kyiv hasn't fallen and that thousands of his troops have been killed in a month.
If anything this article is wishful thinking by our press, imagining that if only Putin knew how bad things were going he might change course.
I suspect Putin knows how things are going and is satisfied that things are progressing sufficiently in the south and east of Ukraine to accept the setbacks around Kyiv.
posted by Reverend John at 8:45 AM on March 30, 2022 [15 favorites]
Putin certainly knows that Kyiv hasn't fallen. Though does he know that Russia has lost 17,000 troops and is reduced to using Toyota Hilux technicals like it's the Democratic Republic of Congo or something while Ukraine's holding of main battle tanks has actually increased? That's a pretty big gap.
posted by acb at 8:53 AM on March 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:53 AM on March 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
If anything this article is wishful thinking by our press, imagining that if only Putin knew how bad things were going he might change course.
I think it is the Russian loyalists who do this (and spread it to Western media). I read an article about this thing, where people don't blame Putin for the failures of the Russian state, and instead think that "if only Putin knew", and that Putin aides this thinking by holding annual town hall meetings where people can complain directly to him and then he fixes this little local thing.
I suspect Putin knows how things are going and is satisfied that things are progressing sufficiently in the south and east of Ukraine to accept the setbacks around Kyiv.
Yes.
How Russia is using tactics from the Syrian playbook in Ukraine
posted by mumimor at 9:19 AM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think it is the Russian loyalists who do this (and spread it to Western media). I read an article about this thing, where people don't blame Putin for the failures of the Russian state, and instead think that "if only Putin knew", and that Putin aides this thinking by holding annual town hall meetings where people can complain directly to him and then he fixes this little local thing.
I suspect Putin knows how things are going and is satisfied that things are progressing sufficiently in the south and east of Ukraine to accept the setbacks around Kyiv.
Yes.
How Russia is using tactics from the Syrian playbook in Ukraine
posted by mumimor at 9:19 AM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
If anything this article is wishful thinking by our press
It's a quote from a US official, unnamed but corroborated by multiple news outlets including Reuters.
It may be part of some kind of diplomatic game, but it's not wishful thinking by the press.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:28 AM on March 30, 2022 [7 favorites]
It's a quote from a US official, unnamed but corroborated by multiple news outlets including Reuters.
It may be part of some kind of diplomatic game, but it's not wishful thinking by the press.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:28 AM on March 30, 2022 [7 favorites]
The problem is this isn’t Syria. In Syria Russia was fighting a bunch of poorly equipped militias in a country that was years into a civil war. Ukraine has more than 2x the population and a professional military and access to modern weapons systems and a continued supply of weapons. They’ve been able to smash Mariupol, like they smashed Aleppo and Grozny but resistance continues and seems likely to continue for a while. It is also unclear how long they will be able to hold the territory they’ve gained so far. Ukraine is starting to retake territory and counter attack successfully. Russia seems to be losing equipment and soldiers faster than the replacement rate.
posted by interogative mood at 9:44 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:44 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Absolutely, there are huge differences between Syria and Ukraine, and it was a mistake to think one could use the same strategy in Ukraine. But that still means that Putin is A-OK with bombing out cities full of civilians as his main strategy, and lying about it.
posted by mumimor at 9:51 AM on March 30, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 9:51 AM on March 30, 2022 [8 favorites]
I think Nazi involvement in the Spanish Civil War is the closer parallel to Russia in Syria
we can draw some conclusions as to the brutality of what Russian forces did in Syria, but then.. it feels like extra steps to "I see with my eyes, I understand with my brain" it's pretty clear what is happening in Mariupal etc. Whatever the comparisons, analysis, it amounts to slaughter and death and displacement of millions.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:52 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
we can draw some conclusions as to the brutality of what Russian forces did in Syria, but then.. it feels like extra steps to "I see with my eyes, I understand with my brain" it's pretty clear what is happening in Mariupal etc. Whatever the comparisons, analysis, it amounts to slaughter and death and displacement of millions.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:52 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
There IS middle ground between Putin is getting 100% accurate information and Putin getting 0% accurate information. So his overall picture of operations might be somewhat accurate while the parts of reports detailing the scale of the failure and losses is almost certainly getting a bit of polish at each stage from the person on the ground all they way.
Putin likely even knows that this is how the Russian military works and has always worked so he can make some educated guesses at the real truth from the lies he's being fed. But those guesses are probably wrong to some degree and likely to a material degree (in that having more accurate information really would change his thinking at least enough to do something different or understand that it's going to be a real challenge).
It's the fog of war either way and it affects everyone. I don't think it's a stretch to think that Putin's fog is somewhat thicker that Ukraine's.
posted by VTX at 10:00 AM on March 30, 2022 [18 favorites]
Putin likely even knows that this is how the Russian military works and has always worked so he can make some educated guesses at the real truth from the lies he's being fed. But those guesses are probably wrong to some degree and likely to a material degree (in that having more accurate information really would change his thinking at least enough to do something different or understand that it's going to be a real challenge).
It's the fog of war either way and it affects everyone. I don't think it's a stretch to think that Putin's fog is somewhat thicker that Ukraine's.
posted by VTX at 10:00 AM on March 30, 2022 [18 favorites]
Also, Putin just promoted Ramzan Kadyrov to Lieutenant General. This is intriguing because (a) Kadyrov, as mentioned, sits outside the Russian chain of command, being basically a warlord who provides his own personal armies to the Czar, (b) Kadyrov's Chechen hordesmen were reportedly kept away from frontline combat and brought out to intimidate Ukrainians with their fearsome reputation for brutality, and (c) never mind the much put-upon Russian Army, Kadyrov's relationship with the Russian security services (supposedly the power base of the elite) has been a fractious one.
posted by acb at 10:40 AM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 10:40 AM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
Anyone under 30 has not known Russia as USSR.
I'm exactly 30, and I'm trying to remember when I learned what. But I do remember that sitting in a history class in like 2002 or 2003, the history books all stopped around 1990 or so with the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if that really was the End of History. Everything after that was in a weird donut hole where it was recent enough to not be in a history book, but long enough ago that I hadn't lived through it.
And also the history since that point seems so messy and hard to teach. Obviously history hasn't ended but I wonder if the "End of History (as we know it)(so we have to come up with new formats and narratives and understandings of what's happening)" idea has an emotional truth to it.
Speaking of, Matthew Yglesias has a neat little Substack piece about the Ukraine conflict, the "End of History" framework and the "Clash of Civilizations" framework. Pullquote:
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:46 AM on March 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm exactly 30, and I'm trying to remember when I learned what. But I do remember that sitting in a history class in like 2002 or 2003, the history books all stopped around 1990 or so with the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if that really was the End of History. Everything after that was in a weird donut hole where it was recent enough to not be in a history book, but long enough ago that I hadn't lived through it.
And also the history since that point seems so messy and hard to teach. Obviously history hasn't ended but I wonder if the "End of History (as we know it)(so we have to come up with new formats and narratives and understandings of what's happening)" idea has an emotional truth to it.
Speaking of, Matthew Yglesias has a neat little Substack piece about the Ukraine conflict, the "End of History" framework and the "Clash of Civilizations" framework. Pullquote:
Since then, Ukraine has become steadily less cleft. The pro-Russian faction lost power in 2014 when it became clear that the bar for being pro-Russian was “voluntarily abandon your best chance for economic development” rather than “have a lot of Russian-language shows on TV.” And that’s because the pro-Russian faction was ultimately controlled by Moscow and did not reflect the interests and aspirations of Russophone Ukrainians.A lot of the emotional valence of this war, the emotional beats Zelensky has been hitting, have been about democracy and EU liberalism as values that they are striving for and defending, which kind of does fit a "Clash of Civilizations" framework, like they're rejecting not just Russia's influence but its whole model of government. Yglesias instead emphasizes economic interests and aspirations, which are equally well served by aligning with the EU instead of Russia.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:46 AM on March 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
Putin just promoted Ramzan Kadyrov to Lieutenant General.
Also interesting in light of one of Kamil Galeev's latest observations [thread]:
Technically Kadyrov and 8th army commander Mordvichev have the same army rank: they're both lieutenant generals. And yet, during their meeting a (somewhat) professional military Mordvichev will be reporting to this TikTok warlord Kadyrov as if he were his superior. Because he is. [post]
It would be even stranger optics if Kadyrov were inferior in rank.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:48 AM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
Also interesting in light of one of Kamil Galeev's latest observations [thread]:
Technically Kadyrov and 8th army commander Mordvichev have the same army rank: they're both lieutenant generals. And yet, during their meeting a (somewhat) professional military Mordvichev will be reporting to this TikTok warlord Kadyrov as if he were his superior. Because he is. [post]
It would be even stranger optics if Kadyrov were inferior in rank.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:48 AM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
where people don't blame Putin for the failures of the Russian state, and instead think that "if only Putin knew"
Are they going to call him “Little Father” next and denouncing “evil ministers?”
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:15 AM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
Are they going to call him “Little Father” next and denouncing “evil ministers?”
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:15 AM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
randomly, YT rec'd me this video from a Russian vlogger: How I feel and what will happen to Russia. I thought it interesting enough to share. I've been getting videos of Russians youtubers who escaped, and I understand what one needs to do at the individual level even if I can't help but think about the Ukrainians, but this one is still in Russia. Somewhat related to the tangent on the whole information bubble that Putin has fostered and is impacted by - she talks about her fear and anxiety and helplessness esp about who she can trust and how little success she's had in changing minds of people around her.
posted by cendawanita at 11:27 AM on March 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 11:27 AM on March 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
There IS middle ground between Putin is getting 100% accurate information and Putin getting 0% accurate information.
There is also a difference between Putin getting bad information before the war started and what he's getting now. However easy he thought it was going to be, it's obviously not that easy and a trained intelligence officer, he's going to be reevaluating his sources.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:37 AM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
There is also a difference between Putin getting bad information before the war started and what he's getting now. However easy he thought it was going to be, it's obviously not that easy and a trained intelligence officer, he's going to be reevaluating his sources.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:37 AM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Everything after that was in a weird donut hole where it was recent enough to not be in a history book, but long enough ago that I hadn't lived through it.
Attention turned to everything 'cyber' and making money off unleashed globalization, plus all the millennial navel gazing. After that we got 9-11, the War on Terror and then the latest Culture Wars. And climate change, as much as some interests want to wall it off from history in the making.
I've noticed that while younger people have a pretty vague idea of the Cold War, depending on their age they also perceive it as sort of continuous with the War on Terror, in that America is always fighting some ideological enemy (which may be subscribed to or regarded very cynically, depending on the person).
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:41 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Attention turned to everything 'cyber' and making money off unleashed globalization, plus all the millennial navel gazing. After that we got 9-11, the War on Terror and then the latest Culture Wars. And climate change, as much as some interests want to wall it off from history in the making.
I've noticed that while younger people have a pretty vague idea of the Cold War, depending on their age they also perceive it as sort of continuous with the War on Terror, in that America is always fighting some ideological enemy (which may be subscribed to or regarded very cynically, depending on the person).
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:41 AM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Seeing several twitter postings about Russian soldiers' brutality, raping of women and children, horrific lack of humanity. @olgatokariuk on Twitter is someone to follow for retweets from several sources, as are @olex_scherba and @OTregub. I don't know how to substantiate any of this, but if even a fraction of them are true, it's an absolute calamity.
posted by newdaddy at 1:16 PM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by newdaddy at 1:16 PM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
Likewise the forced deportations. If 40,000 Ukrainians (or 4,000) have been abducted to Siberian camps, their return needs to be a peace condition; and if there are any sanctions left to be imposed to accomplish that then let them fly.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:36 PM on March 30, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:36 PM on March 30, 2022 [18 favorites]
International media are abusing the heroism of Ukraine’s journalists
As international media try to cover the horror of Russia's attack on Ukraine, they are failing the people who are helping them do it: Ukrainian journalists and producers.
posted by adamvasco at 1:59 PM on March 30, 2022 [11 favorites]
As international media try to cover the horror of Russia's attack on Ukraine, they are failing the people who are helping them do it: Ukrainian journalists and producers.
posted by adamvasco at 1:59 PM on March 30, 2022 [11 favorites]
Putin advisers ‘afraid to tell him truth’ about Ukraine error, says GCHQ head
From The Guardian.
posted by mumimor at 3:02 PM on March 30, 2022
reduced to using Toyota Hilux technicals like it's the Democratic Republic of Congo or something
There is, of course, a subreddit for this.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:31 PM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
There is, of course, a subreddit for this.
posted by Dip Flash at 3:31 PM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
I thought this opinion piece, by the Prime Minister of Estonia, was articulate and spot on.
posted by ClaireBear at 3:33 PM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by ClaireBear at 3:33 PM on March 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine.
They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest - UNIAN News Agency
posted by Silvery Fish at 4:30 PM on March 30, 2022 [13 favorites]
They allegedly dug trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest - UNIAN News Agency
posted by Silvery Fish at 4:30 PM on March 30, 2022 [13 favorites]
How can unit level commanders bring themselves to pass on that order to the hapless kids under their command? My instinct is to take talk of political officers with revolvers as historical, and not the way things work now, but this boggles the mind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:19 PM on March 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:19 PM on March 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
I've been getting videos of Russians youtubers who escaped, and I understand what one needs to do at the individual level even if I can't help but think about the Ukrainians, but this one is still in Russia.
@nfkrz finally let some of his frustration with ill informed comments come through, which is think is probably for the best.
Why don't I talk about Ukraine? (it's scary)
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:26 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
@nfkrz finally let some of his frustration with ill informed comments come through, which is think is probably for the best.
Why don't I talk about Ukraine? (it's scary)
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:26 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
7 busses with Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome have arrived to a hospital in Belarus from the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in Ukraine.
That would explain the Russians starting to withdraw from Chernobyl nuclear site (According to the Pentagon.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:45 PM on March 30, 2022 [10 favorites]
That would explain the Russians starting to withdraw from Chernobyl nuclear site (According to the Pentagon.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:45 PM on March 30, 2022 [10 favorites]
How fucked up are your thought processes that you want soldiers to dig trenches at Chernobyl?
And how fucked up that those soldiers don’t say, “Wait a second, isn’t this Chernobyl…?
posted by Windopaene at 8:37 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
And how fucked up that those soldiers don’t say, “Wait a second, isn’t this Chernobyl…?
posted by Windopaene at 8:37 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
There is also a difference between Putin getting bad information before the war started and what he's getting now. However easy he thought it was going to be, it's obviously not that easy and a trained intelligence officer, he's going to be reevaluating his sources.
This makes me wonder simply if Putin reads the New York Times. Or anything on Twitter. I mean, it would seem foolish not to have raw Internet access in the Kremlin, right? As a former intelligence officer, wouldn't he *want* that feed as a matter of course.
posted by storybored at 8:47 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
This makes me wonder simply if Putin reads the New York Times. Or anything on Twitter. I mean, it would seem foolish not to have raw Internet access in the Kremlin, right? As a former intelligence officer, wouldn't he *want* that feed as a matter of course.
posted by storybored at 8:47 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
pure speculation: lacking any further information, i personally doubt it was like some pantomime-villain general ordering troops specifically to start digging trenches into the radioactive ground, but more like some 18-to-20-year-old with poor direction and a lack of historical knowledge. one way or another they advanced until they stopped. then, lacking further direction, they did what soldiers do: fortify their position.
just so happens it was in the Red Forest and they didn't know where the fuck they were or why they shoudn't be digging foxholes in the Red Forest? i have no idea how well someone born in 2004 would be aware of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. i expect it varies greatly from person to person.
posted by glonous keming at 8:54 PM on March 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
just so happens it was in the Red Forest and they didn't know where the fuck they were or why they shoudn't be digging foxholes in the Red Forest? i have no idea how well someone born in 2004 would be aware of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. i expect it varies greatly from person to person.
posted by glonous keming at 8:54 PM on March 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
That is a generous interpretation of these events…
posted by Windopaene at 9:05 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 9:05 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wonder if they were confused by the Chornobyl (i.e., Ukrainian) signage?
Epiphanius Watch:
JPost: Ukraine Orthodox Church head: 'Killing Russian invaders isn't a sin'
Epiphanius Watch:
JPost: Ukraine Orthodox Church head: 'Killing Russian invaders isn't a sin'
Killing Russian soldiers isn't a sin, Metropolitan Epiphanius I of Ukraine, head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, said Monday in a telethon, as reported by Ukrainian state media Ukrinform.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:10 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
...
This is not the first statement he has made regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine: A previous statement in late February argued that "the spirit of the anti-Christ operates in the leader of Russia."
He claimed that the "signs" were revealed to indicate this, citing "Pride, devotion to evil, ruthlessness [and] false religiosity."
My understanding is that Russian conscripts tend to be drawn from the ranks of the poorest and least educated members of society. Chernobyl was almost 40 years ago. If you are 17-19 years old that is ancient history.
posted by interogative mood at 9:21 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 9:21 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
I also can't claim any actual scientific knowledge, but I gotta imagine digging a trench in the ground is a real different circumstance.
posted by rifflesby at 9:21 PM on March 30, 2022
posted by rifflesby at 9:21 PM on March 30, 2022
Someone ordered them to emplace there who did know damn well what it would mean the units would do based on their training, or should have. And the order doubtlessly filtered down through a few different parallel lines from there before it landed on those who would have to carry it out.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:41 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:41 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
I work with ionizing radiation exposure and not knowing any numbers for contamination levels, that report surprised me. Adverse health effects long term, don't doubt it a bit, but ARS? Come on now.
But looking at wikipedia: "In 2005, radiation levels in the Red Forest were in some places as high as one roentgen per hour (~9 mSv/h), but levels of ten milliroentgens per hour were more common."
That's a pretty wide range. 1R/hr is starting to be "yikes" territory where I come from, but the LD50 for radiation is typically considered around 4-6 Gray, or 400-600 Rad. A Roentgen of gamma radiation is one Rad, so that would still take 400-600 hours at the highest level wikipedia notes.
10 mR/hr? pfft. I mean I wouldn't live there, but I'm not sure I believe ARS.
(assuming external exposure. Eating the dirt would be a bad idea)
posted by ctmf at 9:48 PM on March 30, 2022 [11 favorites]
But looking at wikipedia: "In 2005, radiation levels in the Red Forest were in some places as high as one roentgen per hour (~9 mSv/h), but levels of ten milliroentgens per hour were more common."
That's a pretty wide range. 1R/hr is starting to be "yikes" territory where I come from, but the LD50 for radiation is typically considered around 4-6 Gray, or 400-600 Rad. A Roentgen of gamma radiation is one Rad, so that would still take 400-600 hours at the highest level wikipedia notes.
10 mR/hr? pfft. I mean I wouldn't live there, but I'm not sure I believe ARS.
(assuming external exposure. Eating the dirt would be a bad idea)
posted by ctmf at 9:48 PM on March 30, 2022 [11 favorites]
one might armchair that it should.
The Russian army is neither teen feet tall nor ten inches tall. They know where fucking Chernobyl is; come the fuck on. An inverted armchair is no less chair. Though it's rather less supported.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Russian army is neither teen feet tall nor ten inches tall. They know where fucking Chernobyl is; come the fuck on. An inverted armchair is no less chair. Though it's rather less supported.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also, it's not inconcievable that they could have found an object that was highly radioactive in the forest and hung around it too long.
posted by ctmf at 9:51 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 9:51 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
From that Pfieffer thread:
So, it may be that the soldiers were psyched out. "You did what?! Oh, that's not good. How do you feel?"
Or, it may be that the staff made a big deal about the driving and the digging, and then invited soldiers to help themselves to a coffee urn that was set aside just for them.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:56 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Let’s close by noting (thanks Civil defense!) that the early symptoms of acute radiation sickness and those of anxiety & panic can overlap
So, it may be that the soldiers were psyched out. "You did what?! Oh, that's not good. How do you feel?"
Or, it may be that the staff made a big deal about the driving and the digging, and then invited soldiers to help themselves to a coffee urn that was set aside just for them.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:56 PM on March 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
but the LD50 for radiation is typically considered around 4-6 Gray,
On the other hand, you would start seeing symptoms before that, so maybe the story is plausible.
posted by ctmf at 10:00 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
On the other hand, you would start seeing symptoms before that, so maybe the story is plausible.
posted by ctmf at 10:00 PM on March 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ok so my pocket guide (that I hope I'll never need) says you might start seeing mild ARS symptoms at about 100 centiGray, so 100 hours at 1R/hr. Maybe less if anyone inhaled a lot of the dirt.
posted by ctmf at 10:05 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 10:05 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
This is a thing that really happened in Ukraine, and I don't get the urge to trivialize or atomize responsibility for it (nobody's blaming the soldiers who were poisoned, the leadership is to be charged with awareness of the consequences of putting them there). But whatever, there's clearly some disconnect in the discussion.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:05 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:05 PM on March 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
This is a thing that really happened in Ukraine
Is it though? So far all I've seen is a tweet from an account ive never heard of citing a news agency ive never heard of, without even the effort of providing a link, just a screenshot purporting to be from Facebook.
posted by pwnguin at 10:40 PM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Is it though? So far all I've seen is a tweet from an account ive never heard of citing a news agency ive never heard of, without even the effort of providing a link, just a screenshot purporting to be from Facebook.
posted by pwnguin at 10:40 PM on March 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Except I'd go for "ignorance" instead of "stupidity."
It does feel like a tidy bit of infowar, though. Just enough truth (7 buses) to hang a bit of psyops on (Ukraine is radioactive! You'll get sick, then die! If you aren't shot first.).
posted by porpoise at 11:06 PM on March 30, 2022
It does feel like a tidy bit of infowar, though. Just enough truth (7 buses) to hang a bit of psyops on (Ukraine is radioactive! You'll get sick, then die! If you aren't shot first.).
posted by porpoise at 11:06 PM on March 30, 2022
Here’s a sort of uplifting excerpt from Yevgenia Belorusets’ latest war diary entry:
The day before yesterday I met an elderly woman who used to organize and lead something rather exotic for Kyiv: a fashion show. She was breathing heavily, walking behind me and talking as I kept turning to face her. Every day she walks five kilometers to a construction site, where she feeds animals whose owners have left the city. Several dogs and cats are hiding together there. They were left behind in Kyiv in panic and haste, and now they await the people they lived with, who miss them.posted by Kattullus at 11:39 PM on March 30, 2022 [24 favorites]
The lady explained how at the beginning of the war she saw a car loaded with suitcases and bags drive away, leaving a dog behind. A little boy cried and begged his mother to take the animal. But she sternly refused. The dog, which had a golden coat, ran beside the car for a long time to catch up with it. Having witnessed this scene, the lady decided to provide food for the street animals of Kyiv.
When I went home in the evening, I met a well-dressed woman carrying five dogs. She addressed them all with a jocular tone. She explained to me that these dogs, as well as the two cats waiting for her at home, were the only reason she had not left Kyiv. It’s not easy to travel with such a large party, she said. She looked happy.
This makes me wonder simply if Putin reads the New York Times. Or anything on Twitter. I mean, it would seem foolish not to have raw Internet access in the Kremlin, right? As a former intelligence officer, wouldn't he *want* that feed as a matter of course.
The issue is: there's an information war. He knows his info isn't accurate. He knows the other info isn't accurate. But who is more correct? That's something that's hard to tell, just looking at what you see.
posted by corb at 12:08 AM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
The issue is: there's an information war. He knows his info isn't accurate. He knows the other info isn't accurate. But who is more correct? That's something that's hard to tell, just looking at what you see.
posted by corb at 12:08 AM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
he's going to be reevaluating his sources.
That's an euphemism I haven't yet seen being used in intelligence circles.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:31 AM on March 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
That's an euphemism I haven't yet seen being used in intelligence circles.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:31 AM on March 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
The issue is: there's an information war. He knows his info isn't accurate. He knows the other info isn't accurate. But who is more correct? That's something that's hard to tell, just looking at what you see.
So true! And imaging that the NYTimes or twitter are purveyors of the "Truth" is hilarious. You don't even need to go all the way back to the Iraq war lies, where the NYTimes were mostly a mouthpiece for the Bush administration, you could just take 2016, before the election. And Putin knows that, because he provided the disinformation.
US intelligence has been really impressive throughout, but I don't expect Putin to trust it.
Anyhow, I'm wondering if the reason for the head of the GCHQ to go out with this now is to give Putin an excuse to draw back?
Also, I hope it is true that they have taken the young soldiers out of the Red Forest, regardless of the reason. That was always a terrible situation, and hard to understand what they were doing there in the first place. I polled the (4) 23-yos here, and 50% of them knew about the disaster, one because of the current situation, one knew from earlier. I think the hardest history to know about is that from the decades before you were born. It's too old to be current and too young to be in the approved history books. Sovjet history could be particularly fraught in Russia.
I wonder if the boys have been writing home, and their families reacting dramatically, again leading to mass anxiety?
posted by mumimor at 2:17 AM on March 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
So true! And imaging that the NYTimes or twitter are purveyors of the "Truth" is hilarious. You don't even need to go all the way back to the Iraq war lies, where the NYTimes were mostly a mouthpiece for the Bush administration, you could just take 2016, before the election. And Putin knows that, because he provided the disinformation.
US intelligence has been really impressive throughout, but I don't expect Putin to trust it.
Anyhow, I'm wondering if the reason for the head of the GCHQ to go out with this now is to give Putin an excuse to draw back?
Also, I hope it is true that they have taken the young soldiers out of the Red Forest, regardless of the reason. That was always a terrible situation, and hard to understand what they were doing there in the first place. I polled the (4) 23-yos here, and 50% of them knew about the disaster, one because of the current situation, one knew from earlier. I think the hardest history to know about is that from the decades before you were born. It's too old to be current and too young to be in the approved history books. Sovjet history could be particularly fraught in Russia.
I wonder if the boys have been writing home, and their families reacting dramatically, again leading to mass anxiety?
posted by mumimor at 2:17 AM on March 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
A day or so ago, I saw news about Ukrainian forces pushing a little way into Russia, and now the story has disappeared. Was it just plain wrong?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:44 AM on March 31, 2022
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:44 AM on March 31, 2022
Reuters has an article on the Russian soldiers and it says they went into the highly contaminated Red forest, unprotected. The red forest is an off limits area of 10 square kilometers within the much larger area contaminated in 1986.
According to workers at the plant interviewed by Reuters , the soldiers were not aware of the danger.
When told of the danger, they went in anyway.
The acting GD of the plant is quoted:
Valery Seida, acting general director of the Chernobyl plant, was not there at the time and did not witness the Russian convoy going into the Red Forest, but he said he was told by witnesses that Russian military vehicles drove everywhere around the exclusion zone and could have passed the Red Forest.
Nobody goes there ... for God's sake. There is no one there," Seida told Reuters.
He said workers at the plant told the Russian service personnel they should be cautious about radiation, but he knew of no evidence that they paid attention.
"They drove wherever they needed to," Seida said.
posted by 15L06 at 3:00 AM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
According to workers at the plant interviewed by Reuters , the soldiers were not aware of the danger.
When told of the danger, they went in anyway.
The acting GD of the plant is quoted:
Valery Seida, acting general director of the Chernobyl plant, was not there at the time and did not witness the Russian convoy going into the Red Forest, but he said he was told by witnesses that Russian military vehicles drove everywhere around the exclusion zone and could have passed the Red Forest.
Nobody goes there ... for God's sake. There is no one there," Seida told Reuters.
He said workers at the plant told the Russian service personnel they should be cautious about radiation, but he knew of no evidence that they paid attention.
"They drove wherever they needed to," Seida said.
posted by 15L06 at 3:00 AM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
There are various reports that the Russians established a large ammunition depot within the exclusion area of Chernobyl, as the vicinity to the plant will protect it from targeting by Ukraine forces. Chernobyl is only 100km from Kyiv.
Yesterday, head of IAEA, Rafael Grossi, visited Chernobyl, assuring Ukraine of the full support of the IAEA.
posted by 15L06 at 3:16 AM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yesterday, head of IAEA, Rafael Grossi, visited Chernobyl, assuring Ukraine of the full support of the IAEA.
posted by 15L06 at 3:16 AM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
...imaging that the NYTimes or twitter are purveyors of the "Truth" is hilarious. You don't even need to go all the way back to the Iraq war lies, where the NYTimes were mostly a mouthpiece for the Bush administration, you could just take 2016, before the election
Hell you could go to the last time David Leonhardt opened his ignorant-ass mouth about Covid being over. Probably Tuesday.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 5:18 AM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Hell you could go to the last time David Leonhardt opened his ignorant-ass mouth about Covid being over. Probably Tuesday.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 5:18 AM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm not educated enough on this subject to have much of an opinion. My only thought is: if the area was that dangerous that quickly, they wouldn't have allowed tourists into it.
There's a world of difference between walking on undisturbed vegetation in the exclusion zone and exerting yourself kicking up dirt and inhaling it.
posted by ocschwar at 6:43 AM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
Eleanor Beardsley (Paris correspondent for NPR):
Incredible testimony on BFMTV from this mayor of Melitopol who was kidnapped for several days by the Russians. He says they had no idea what’s going on. They told him we’re here to get the Nazis - he said I’ve been in this town 30 years and I’ve never met one…. then they said well we’re here to help the Russian speakers snd he said 95% of us speak Russian and we’re fine. They said they heard that the World War II veterans of the town had been beaten in the patriot day and he said au contraire they’re venerated and there’s not very many of them left. It seems these Russian soldiers truly thought that. This entire war is being fought on propaganda - for false pretenses. Its not only Putin who doesn’t know what’s going on. This mayor, Ivan Fedorov, said the soldiers were completely unprepared and clueless.posted by gwint at 7:07 AM on March 31, 2022 [40 favorites]
US intelligence has been really impressive throughout, but I don't expect Putin to trust it.
In the runup to the war, the US did something interesting that hasn't been done often -- they repeatedly released accurate intelligence publicly (rather than the usual confusing mix of spin, information, and disinformation) as a deliberate measure.
The question is, are the current releases by the US and some of the allies (like the claims that Putin is being given poor information and there is dissent in the ranks) also accurate intelligence, or is it being mixed with disinformation? It will be obvious what is true in hindsight, but from the outside in this moment it isn't so clear.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:24 AM on March 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
In the runup to the war, the US did something interesting that hasn't been done often -- they repeatedly released accurate intelligence publicly (rather than the usual confusing mix of spin, information, and disinformation) as a deliberate measure.
The question is, are the current releases by the US and some of the allies (like the claims that Putin is being given poor information and there is dissent in the ranks) also accurate intelligence, or is it being mixed with disinformation? It will be obvious what is true in hindsight, but from the outside in this moment it isn't so clear.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:24 AM on March 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
Could anyone clarify why it's so favorable to Putin to have European countries pay in rubles? Is it just because it increases the demand for rubles, so raises the value of the ruble? I saw an offhand comment suggesting that wasn't the mechanism but I don't understand currency stuff enough to really put it together myself.
posted by ClaireBear at 8:37 AM on March 31, 2022
posted by ClaireBear at 8:37 AM on March 31, 2022
Why is Vladimir Putin demanding Russian gas is paid for in roubles?
From The Guardian
posted by mumimor at 8:43 AM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
From The Guardian
posted by mumimor at 8:43 AM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
That article from the Guardian makes no sense at all (payments in Euros are not suddenly "bringing in less money" because of the lower values of the rouble, in fact they are worth more in roubles because you get more roubles per Euro).
posted by ssg at 9:11 AM on March 31, 2022
posted by ssg at 9:11 AM on March 31, 2022
not if you have no access to trading your money
posted by mumimor at 9:26 AM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 9:26 AM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Seems like an opportunity to pay less. "if you want Roubles we'll give you 30% of what you were getting before for each liter of gas due to currency volatility"
posted by strange chain at 9:31 AM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by strange chain at 9:31 AM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Is it just because it increases the demand for rubles, so raises the value of the ruble?
The point is to prop up the rouble, and if people have to buy roubles to buy oil and gas then that restores some inflow of other currency.
Reuters: An order signed by Putin set out a mechanism for buyers to transfer foreign currency to a special account at a Russian bank, which would then send roubles back to the foreign buyer to make payment for the gas.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:31 AM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The point is to prop up the rouble, and if people have to buy roubles to buy oil and gas then that restores some inflow of other currency.
Reuters: An order signed by Putin set out a mechanism for buyers to transfer foreign currency to a special account at a Russian bank, which would then send roubles back to the foreign buyer to make payment for the gas.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:31 AM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm not educated enough on this subject to have much of an opinion. My only thought is: if the area was that dangerous that quickly, they wouldn't have allowed tourists into it.
There's a world of difference between walking on undisturbed vegetation in the exclusion zone and exerting yourself kicking up dirt and inhaling it.
Also, if I'm understanding what I've read in the links correctly, they do not ever let tourists into that particular Red Forest sub-area because of the locally higher radiation levels.
posted by eviemath at 9:36 AM on March 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
There's a world of difference between walking on undisturbed vegetation in the exclusion zone and exerting yourself kicking up dirt and inhaling it.
Also, if I'm understanding what I've read in the links correctly, they do not ever let tourists into that particular Red Forest sub-area because of the locally higher radiation levels.
posted by eviemath at 9:36 AM on March 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
I think there’s an angle of fighting sanctions here. If the only way Russia permits anyone to get any rubles is through offering goods to Russians that get paid for with rubles, which then go to purchasing Russian gas, then Russia has leveraged their gas supply into supporting their imports. And additionally, if the presence of sanctions is making it impossible to buy those goods (for the rubles you need to buy the gas), that’s going to bring pressure to reduce the sanctions.
There’s also an angle of preserving the concept of the ruble as a currency at all. Currency requires credibility, which is in short supply when Russia is concerned. If absolutely nobody is willing to deal in your currency… you don’t have one anymore, except as an internal tool, at least to the extent that your populace doesn’t also abandon it in favor of foreign currency (even despite whatever laws you might try to pass to stop them).
posted by notoriety public at 9:42 AM on March 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
There’s also an angle of preserving the concept of the ruble as a currency at all. Currency requires credibility, which is in short supply when Russia is concerned. If absolutely nobody is willing to deal in your currency… you don’t have one anymore, except as an internal tool, at least to the extent that your populace doesn’t also abandon it in favor of foreign currency (even despite whatever laws you might try to pass to stop them).
posted by notoriety public at 9:42 AM on March 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm not educated enough on this subject to have much of an opinion. My only thought is: if the area was that dangerous that quickly, they wouldn't have allowed tourists into it.
Think of it like this: Some zoos have areas where you can go in with the goats and feed them, and there are free-roaming peacocks, and even the elephants might be able to stretch their trunk far enough to get a forbidden peanut from a cooperative tourist with long arms, but no one is allowed anywhere near the polar bears without six inches of glass in between.
posted by tllaya at 10:08 AM on March 31, 2022 [17 favorites]
Think of it like this: Some zoos have areas where you can go in with the goats and feed them, and there are free-roaming peacocks, and even the elephants might be able to stretch their trunk far enough to get a forbidden peanut from a cooperative tourist with long arms, but no one is allowed anywhere near the polar bears without six inches of glass in between.
posted by tllaya at 10:08 AM on March 31, 2022 [17 favorites]
Sounds like the immediate problem was panic
CNN's Natasha Bertrand on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:10 AM on March 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
CNN's Natasha Bertrand on Twitter
Ukraine's state nuclear firm says Russian troops "received significant doses of radiation" at Chernobyl "and panicked at the first sign of illness...As a result, almost a riot broke out among the military, and they began to gather from there."Includes link to Ukrainian language source.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:10 AM on March 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
In that CNN thing above, in the Ukrainian text there is a new term to label the Russians, рашисти, or rashisti, which is a compound word combining Russian and fascist.
posted by njohnson23 at 11:11 AM on March 31, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 11:11 AM on March 31, 2022 [24 favorites]
Reuter's Idrees Ali on Twitter
March 31 (Reuters) - Britain and its allies have agreed to send more lethal weapons to Ukraine to help defend it against Russia's invasion, British defence minister Wallace said. He said the lethal aid included longer range artillery, ammunition, and more anti-aircraft weapons.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:52 AM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
I had a hunch that Ukrainians would turn out to be incredibly resourceful with drones, but this is well beyond what I had imagined.
posted by vers at 11:56 AM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by vers at 11:56 AM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
The Guardian had a piece on the unit that's at the forefront of their drone tactics: "The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists designing their own machines and has evolved into an essential element in Ukraine’s successful David-and-Goliath resistance."
So basically a group of hobbyists and engineers got together in 2014 to try use drones to help in the Donbas and are now dropping grenades from quadcopters onto Russian tanks.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:07 PM on March 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
So basically a group of hobbyists and engineers got together in 2014 to try use drones to help in the Donbas and are now dropping grenades from quadcopters onto Russian tanks.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:07 PM on March 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
There is a place in Ukraine called Rohan and the Russian army soldiers are called “orcs” by Ukrainians and folks on the internet. Today the orcs lost a battle for Rohan and were pushed back. I recognize this war is serious and horrible; but please allow me this small moment of levity.
posted by interogative mood at 12:07 PM on March 31, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:07 PM on March 31, 2022 [24 favorites]
That article from the Guardian makes no sense at all (payments in Euros are not suddenly "bringing in less money" because of the lower values of the rouble, in fact they are worth more in roubles because you get more roubles per Euro).
Interesting follow up article on the rouble/gas threat and the detail of the order Putin signed.
I'm no financial wizard, so anyone with real knowledge please correct if I've got the wrong end of the stick. Anyway, I believe the prop-up theory goes like this; the rouble is trash tier now nobody wants it, because they're cutting ties with Russia - leading to mass inflation in the cost of living for Russians ultimately buying imports with roubles. The central bank has lost access to most of its large foreign currency reserves it's built up, due to sanctions, and cannot continue to artificially increase the value of the rouble (i.e. hold off a larger collapse) by buying it using what's left of its foreign reserves. Russian exporters were required recently to convert 80% of their foreign sales to roubles, which increases the demand for and thus props up the value of the rouble on foreign exchanges, and thus russian essential imports are less costly for Russia, reducing the visible damage of sanctions. However, this relies on russian exporters being able to convert euros/dollars for roubles, which is apparently tricky due to SWIFT sanctions.
So forcing foreign purchasers to buy the roubles first (even if that benefits them initially, trading a strong currency to a weak one) means they're the ones that have to deal with sanction blocks; and given the impact of gas sales on EU states, and the current carve outs for gas purchases, should be easier for them.
However, there's a little get out clause in the new order; Putin has folded, given EU states basically called his bluff - they're prepared to do without the gas if Putin cuts them off, and he can't afford to lose the sales being such a large part of the Russian economy. Basically, EU countries will continue to pay in Euros (or dollars) as per their contracts, but the payments will go to Gazprombank, and be authorised to then convert them to roubles to actually pay for Gazprom gas - which is pretty much what was happening before due to the 80% rule, it's just a different sleight of hand in the end.
Interesting follow up article on the rouble/gas threat and the detail of the order Putin signed.
I'm no financial wizard, so anyone with real knowledge please correct if I've got the wrong end of the stick. Anyway, I believe the prop-up theory goes like this; the rouble is trash tier now nobody wants it, because they're cutting ties with Russia - leading to mass inflation in the cost of living for Russians ultimately buying imports with roubles. The central bank has lost access to most of its large foreign currency reserves it's built up, due to sanctions, and cannot continue to artificially increase the value of the rouble (i.e. hold off a larger collapse) by buying it using what's left of its foreign reserves. Russian exporters were required recently to convert 80% of their foreign sales to roubles, which increases the demand for and thus props up the value of the rouble on foreign exchanges, and thus russian essential imports are less costly for Russia, reducing the visible damage of sanctions. However, this relies on russian exporters being able to convert euros/dollars for roubles, which is apparently tricky due to SWIFT sanctions.
So forcing foreign purchasers to buy the roubles first (even if that benefits them initially, trading a strong currency to a weak one) means they're the ones that have to deal with sanction blocks; and given the impact of gas sales on EU states, and the current carve outs for gas purchases, should be easier for them.
However, there's a little get out clause in the new order; Putin has folded, given EU states basically called his bluff - they're prepared to do without the gas if Putin cuts them off, and he can't afford to lose the sales being such a large part of the Russian economy. Basically, EU countries will continue to pay in Euros (or dollars) as per their contracts, but the payments will go to Gazprombank, and be authorised to then convert them to roubles to actually pay for Gazprom gas - which is pretty much what was happening before due to the 80% rule, it's just a different sleight of hand in the end.
The gas payment plan would perform a similar function, although it is not clear why it would make any difference whether foreign buyers or Russian exporters are the ones to convert dollars and euros into roubles.posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:14 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Charlie Robertson, Renaissance Capital’s global chief economist, said Russia’s focus may be on avoiding the risk of sanctions rather than in propping up the currency.
“The view from the people I’m speaking to in Moscow is that it’s only about the risk component and the challenge of getting paid,” he said. “There’s nothing to do with strengthening the rouble or making the rouble a global currency that people need to take seriously.”
Levity at the expense of Putin's army that promotes Ukrainian successes is levity I can get behind. It might be a bit of grim levity but it supports and honors Ukrainians so I don't see much downside.
posted by VTX at 12:17 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by VTX at 12:17 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
I had a hunch that Ukrainians would turn out to be incredibly resourceful with drones, but this is well beyond what I had imagined.
I don't think this is going to go well for humanity.
I mean anyone who has paid attention to how these things and the increasingly intersecting fields of autonomous drones, machine vision, facial recognition and weaponized drones has known this is coming for many years now, and it's even predicted in cyberpunk fiction in a number of books dating back to the 80s and 90s.
But this is one of the specific reasons out of many reasons that I hate war. It tends to accelerate and invent new and novel ways of killing people.
Take away the good feeling parts about being resourceful in a defensive, asymmetric warfare in the face of an invasion and weaponized commercial drones are super bad news, and these are getting to the point they're just a few upgrades away from being weapons of mass terror or politically motivated assassination machines.
posted by loquacious at 12:37 PM on March 31, 2022 [40 favorites]
I don't think this is going to go well for humanity.
I mean anyone who has paid attention to how these things and the increasingly intersecting fields of autonomous drones, machine vision, facial recognition and weaponized drones has known this is coming for many years now, and it's even predicted in cyberpunk fiction in a number of books dating back to the 80s and 90s.
But this is one of the specific reasons out of many reasons that I hate war. It tends to accelerate and invent new and novel ways of killing people.
Take away the good feeling parts about being resourceful in a defensive, asymmetric warfare in the face of an invasion and weaponized commercial drones are super bad news, and these are getting to the point they're just a few upgrades away from being weapons of mass terror or politically motivated assassination machines.
posted by loquacious at 12:37 PM on March 31, 2022 [40 favorites]
I had a hunch that Ukrainians would turn out to be incredibly resourceful with drones, but this is well beyond what I had imagined.
This has a Snow Crash vibe to it that, combined with 3D-printed gun parts, feels like a line of demarcation we can't go back across again.
And the tech probably uses COTS-grade parts, suggesting that only the information needs to be shared, and not any exotic materials or pieces that would be more amenable to control.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:56 PM on March 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
This has a Snow Crash vibe to it that, combined with 3D-printed gun parts, feels like a line of demarcation we can't go back across again.
And the tech probably uses COTS-grade parts, suggesting that only the information needs to be shared, and not any exotic materials or pieces that would be more amenable to control.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:56 PM on March 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
"THEY sent A SLAMHOUND on Turner's trail in New Delhi, slotted it to his pheromones and the color of his hair. It caught up with him on a street called Chandni Chauk and came scrambling for his rented BMW through a forest of bare brown legs and pedicab tires. Its core was a kilogram of recrystallized hexogene and flaked TNT.
He didn't see it coming. The last he saw of India was the pink stucco facade of a place called the Khush-Oil Hotel."
posted by Windopaene at 1:00 PM on March 31, 2022 [25 favorites]
He didn't see it coming. The last he saw of India was the pink stucco facade of a place called the Khush-Oil Hotel."
posted by Windopaene at 1:00 PM on March 31, 2022 [25 favorites]
Yes, that's the very quote I was thinking of!
That level of personalization & automation seems a long way off, but if you keep a human in the loop, a drone and a repurposed grenade is clearly within reach today.
And sometimes just knowing that something can be done is enough to set someone on the path to figuring it out. *shudder*
posted by wenestvedt at 1:27 PM on March 31, 2022
That level of personalization & automation seems a long way off, but if you keep a human in the loop, a drone and a repurposed grenade is clearly within reach today.
And sometimes just knowing that something can be done is enough to set someone on the path to figuring it out. *shudder*
posted by wenestvedt at 1:27 PM on March 31, 2022
Hey, I didn't mean to derail the discussion. You make good points, loquacious, and I share your concerns. Myself, I'm in the uncomfortable position of being a lifelong pacifist and still wanting to root for Ukraine in this senseless, horrific war. A lot of weapons should not exist -- nukes, thermobaric bombs, white phosphorous etc. -- and wars are barbaric. Be great for humanity if we would just goddamn evolve past violence and insanity already, but here we are in a highly imperfect world that we're making negative progress on improving.
posted by vers at 1:36 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by vers at 1:36 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
This has a Snow Crash vibe to it that, combined with 3D-printed gun parts, feels like a line of demarcation we can't go back across again.
Drones feature heavily in Stephenson's new novel Termination Shock as well...
posted by schyler523 at 1:38 PM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Drones feature heavily in Stephenson's new novel Termination Shock as well...
posted by schyler523 at 1:38 PM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
The "Slamhound" passage does not originate with Stephenson but was taken from William Gibson's Count Zero which is all I have to say about it except that I hope we can return to discussing events in Ukraine.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:45 PM on March 31, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:45 PM on March 31, 2022 [14 favorites]
As well as several (using currently existing technology) of the novels by Daniel Suarez. Daemon, Freedom(tm), and in particular Kill Decision.
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:46 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:46 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
not willing to add much to this derail except to say you can bet that people are taking lots of notes on these drones and a lot of them are the wrong people
posted by pyramid termite at 1:47 PM on March 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 1:47 PM on March 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
Concerning Ukraine: several well-informed MeFites have posted in this thread (and possibly others), discussing the role that religion is playing.
If anybody has the time to start a thread specifically about that, I'd love to hear more opinion about the likely long-term effects that parallel conflict within Orthodox religion might have, depending (I presume) upon how the physical war shakes out.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:50 PM on March 31, 2022 [13 favorites]
If anybody has the time to start a thread specifically about that, I'd love to hear more opinion about the likely long-term effects that parallel conflict within Orthodox religion might have, depending (I presume) upon how the physical war shakes out.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:50 PM on March 31, 2022 [13 favorites]
Filling the void: Putin’s administration no longer hopes to take Kyiv. The Russian president has yet to make a final decision. [Meduza in English, March 31 2022]:
Three sources close to the Presidential Administration all underscored that Putin has yet to make a final decision on what to do next.
According to one of these people, the president is currently “influenced by different groups and people.” And he himself “would like to see a semblance of public discussion” about the war in Ukraine. This desire for “public discussion” implies that Putin is ready to hear out those who insist on peace with Ukraine, as well as those who call for the continuation of a full-scale war.
“People close to the Kremlin’s political block are inclined to support the negotiations, and their capabilities on the Internet will be deployed for this. The party of war is, for example, [Chechnya’s head Ramzan] Kadyrov and [State Duma Speaker] Vyacheslav Volodin. They believe that Putin himself is in favor of fighting until victory, so they’re sort of following him,” said a source close to the AP.
At the same time, officials in the Presidential Administration now fear that a “possible truce with Ukraine will impact Putin’s ratings.” “The citizenry has been overheated by the propaganda. Let’s say a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the ‘Nazis’? Are we no longer fighting against them? This word has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how we can stop at the Donbas without losing the authorities’ ratings,” said a spin doctor working with the Kremlin.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:34 PM on March 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
Three sources close to the Presidential Administration all underscored that Putin has yet to make a final decision on what to do next.
According to one of these people, the president is currently “influenced by different groups and people.” And he himself “would like to see a semblance of public discussion” about the war in Ukraine. This desire for “public discussion” implies that Putin is ready to hear out those who insist on peace with Ukraine, as well as those who call for the continuation of a full-scale war.
“People close to the Kremlin’s political block are inclined to support the negotiations, and their capabilities on the Internet will be deployed for this. The party of war is, for example, [Chechnya’s head Ramzan] Kadyrov and [State Duma Speaker] Vyacheslav Volodin. They believe that Putin himself is in favor of fighting until victory, so they’re sort of following him,” said a source close to the AP.
At the same time, officials in the Presidential Administration now fear that a “possible truce with Ukraine will impact Putin’s ratings.” “The citizenry has been overheated by the propaganda. Let’s say a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the ‘Nazis’? Are we no longer fighting against them? This word has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how we can stop at the Donbas without losing the authorities’ ratings,” said a spin doctor working with the Kremlin.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:34 PM on March 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
If anybody has the time to start a thread specifically about that, I'd love to hear more opinion about the likely long-term effects that parallel conflict within Orthodox religion might have, depending (I presume) upon how the physical war shakes out .
Seconded.
I never imagined a new, major schism would happen in my lifetime.
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:43 PM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
Seconded.
I never imagined a new, major schism would happen in my lifetime.
posted by Silvery Fish at 2:43 PM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
... said a spin doctor working with the Kremlin.♫♫♫ Mammas, don't let your babies grow up to be spin doctors working with the Kremlin ♫♫♫
posted by Flunkie at 3:23 PM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Putin is ordering a draft of 135,000 males 18 to 27 years old. This is the type of thing that may really turn public opinion, but it's also definitely a sign that things really really aren't going well at all. Imagine if the US started a draft during the Iraq War - public support would have dropped like a rock if that happened. The big question is what he has in mind. Does he think he's going to push a new offensive? Does he plan to put the conscripts on the front line? Or is he realizing he has to backfill the military just to keep normal, non-war operations going? If he's planning another blitz, well, the Ukrainians will see it coming. You don't just teleport men and materiel to the battlefield, they have to mobilize, and they have to get there, and the US will see that happening. I truly hope he is not planning to prolong the war. This atrocity needs to end. Ukrainians need their homeland back and need to rebuild. Russian families need to stop having to worry about their sons, brothers and fathers getting killed in a neighboring country that poses no threat and did nothing to deserve what's happening. All of this because of the fantasy of one man.
posted by azpenguin at 3:27 PM on March 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 3:27 PM on March 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
Good news, Russian troops leaving Chernoybl BBC Link and Vice News Report
Announcement via Tweet (!) from IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency "#Ukraine informed IAEA today that Russian forces that had been in control of #Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant since 24 Feb have, in writing, transferred control of the NPP to Ukrainian personnel and moved convoys of troops."
posted by jadepearl at 3:29 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Announcement via Tweet (!) from IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency "#Ukraine informed IAEA today that Russian forces that had been in control of #Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant since 24 Feb have, in writing, transferred control of the NPP to Ukrainian personnel and moved convoys of troops."
posted by jadepearl at 3:29 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukrainian Air Force on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:33 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
⚡The Ukrainian Air Force would like to address misinformation published in multiple Western media outlets regarding the situation in the 🇺🇦 sky and support from our @NATO allies.They want modern jets (claim they could train up in 2-3 weeks) and SAMs.
More in 🧵(1/16)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:33 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
"Putin is ordering a draft of 135,000 males 18 to 27 years old. This is the type of thing that may really turn public opinion, but it's also definitely a sign that things really really aren't going well at all."
The Russian army conscripts men every year, twice a year. 135,000 is a typical number, not higher or lower than usual.
The Russian army conscripts men every year, twice a year. 135,000 is a typical number, not higher or lower than usual.
The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18.[4] The draft affects all men aged 18 to 27 years old, though some conscripts can be as young as 16 years old.[5] Russian conscripts typically serve one year.[6] The annual conscription pool of all Russian military-aged men is approximately 1.2 million people, though only about half are compelled to present themselves at their local military commissariat (voenkomat). The Russian General Staff reported conscripting 127,000 people for the fall 2021 draft and 134,000 people in spring 2021 out of 672,000 summoned men.[7] The number of conscripts is relatively consistent year on year, with 263,000 in 2020 and 267,000 in 2019.[8]posted by Eyebrows McGee at 3:45 PM on March 31, 2022 [26 favorites]
Yeah, the draft was always going to happen on this schedule and approximate size. It isn't news. The real question is whether Putin orders the stop-loss of the previous round of conscripts that would normally be rotating out - I think at the end of April? Can't find a citation right now.
posted by allegedly at 3:50 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by allegedly at 3:50 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Russian military forces’ Tochka-U ( NATO reporting name is SS-21 Scarab-B) tactical ballistic missiles are operational again, according to open-source-intelligence analysts who scrutinize photos and videos on social media.
posted by adamvasco at 4:21 PM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by adamvasco at 4:21 PM on March 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
President Zelensky's address today, on the 36th day of his country's defense.
posted by vers at 4:59 PM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by vers at 4:59 PM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
possible truce with Ukraine will impact Putin’s ratings
Are we supposed to believe Putin cares about ratings? He throws any opposition in jail, and controls the media. The whole concept of ratings doesn't even make sense in such an environment.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:21 PM on March 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
Are we supposed to believe Putin cares about ratings? He throws any opposition in jail, and controls the media. The whole concept of ratings doesn't even make sense in such an environment.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:21 PM on March 31, 2022 [11 favorites]
Ukraine Situation Report: NATO Says Russia Is Repositioning, Not Withdrawing – Russia's war in Ukraine is in the midst of a major shift in focus after five weeks of fighting., Joseph Trevithick, The War Zone, March 31, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 8:35 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Russia's war in Ukraine is now five weeks old and the conflict is now shifting in significant ways. NATO says that it is indeed seeing a drawdown of Russian forces in northern Ukraine, but that this is geared toward repositioning those units to support its offensive in the country's eastern Donbas region rather than an actual withdrawal.More in the article.
…
The Latest
POSTED: 1:15 PM EST—
"According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing, but repositioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply, and reinforce its offensive in the Donbas region," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said today. "At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities. So, we can expect additional offensive actions, bringing even more suffering."
This repositioning has included the movement of Russian units out of Ukraine and into Belarus via the site of the now-defunct Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant and the surrounding Exclusion Zone that was established after the disaster there in 1986. There are indications that Russian forces will leave the area entirely, though this has not yet happened. There are unconfirmed reports that some Russian troops may have suffered adverse health impacts from exposure to radioactive contamination while operating in this area, or at least experienced some degree of severe anxiety regarding potential exposure, which may have led to some breakdowns in unit cohesion.
Even with these repositionings, significant numbers of Russian units still remain in place in northern Ukraine. The U.S. military has assessed that only around 20 percent of Russian forces arrayed around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv have been ordered away.…
posted by cenoxo at 8:35 PM on March 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Looks like a fuel depot in Belgorod is on fire, separate from the ammo dump. Russians claim UA forces hit with attack choppers and S-8s.
To be a fly on the wall of the Telegrams in Belgorod. They must be absolutely shitting themselves watching UA strike back into Russia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:52 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
To be a fly on the wall of the Telegrams in Belgorod. They must be absolutely shitting themselves watching UA strike back into Russia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:52 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kyiv Inependent: ⚡️Georgia to implement economic sanctions against Russia.
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili told CNN that Georgia will join international financial sanctions against Russia.
Georgia had so far refused to sanction Russia in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
posted by cendawanita at 10:02 PM on March 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili told CNN that Georgia will join international financial sanctions against Russia.
Georgia had so far refused to sanction Russia in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
posted by cendawanita at 10:02 PM on March 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
And the tech probably uses COTS-grade parts, suggesting that only the information needs to be shared, and not any exotic materials or pieces that would be more amenable to control.
The Guardian article says this:
"But Aerorozvidka’s efforts to expand, and to replace lost equipment, have been hindered by a limited supply of drones and components, and efforts to secure them through defence ministry procurement have produced little, partly because they are a recent addition to the armed forces and still considered outsiders.
Furthermore, some of the advanced modems and thermal-imaging cameras made in the US and Canada are subject to export controls, so they have resorted to crowdfunding and asking a global network of friends and supporters to find them on eBay or other websites."
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 10:46 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Guardian article says this:
"But Aerorozvidka’s efforts to expand, and to replace lost equipment, have been hindered by a limited supply of drones and components, and efforts to secure them through defence ministry procurement have produced little, partly because they are a recent addition to the armed forces and still considered outsiders.
Furthermore, some of the advanced modems and thermal-imaging cameras made in the US and Canada are subject to export controls, so they have resorted to crowdfunding and asking a global network of friends and supporters to find them on eBay or other websites."
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 10:46 PM on March 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Are we supposed to believe Putin cares about ratings? He throws any opposition in jail, and controls the media. The whole concept of ratings doesn't even make sense in such an environment.
Even dictators worry about their ratings. They know that if they get unpopular enough, a people power revolution could overpower even the full force of the state security apparatus.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 10:47 PM on March 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
Even dictators worry about their ratings. They know that if they get unpopular enough, a people power revolution could overpower even the full force of the state security apparatus.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 10:47 PM on March 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
I never imagined a new, major schism would happen in my lifetime.
Orthodox churches, but especially the patriarchates of Constantinople and Moscow, have had many bitter disputes over the centuries. It's just part of the, well, Byzantine weirdness (or dysfunction, if you prefer) of the Orthodox world. The arguments generally have to do with the Orthodox churches of small countries deciding which larger church to seek affiliation with. As you might imagine, there have been a number of these disputes since the end of the Cold War, with the churches in quite a few countries that were part of the USSR or the Warsaw Pact seeking to disaffiliate with Moscow and recognize Constantinople as their spiritual "parent" instead.
Eastern Orthodox Christianity has no Pope. But the thing about those two churches -- Constantinople and Moscow -- is that they both like to think of themselves as, unofficially, the closest thing there is to the "Vatican" of Orthodoxy.
The patriarch of Constantinople is often referred to as "first among equals" in relation to the other Orthodox patriarchs (the major historic ones being the patriarchs of Moscow, Antioch, Jerusalem, and Alexandria, but there are also patriarchs/metropolitans/archbishops for the autocephalous churches of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Georgia, Greece, North America, Poland, Romania, and Serbia).
Many Orthodox theologians and believers maintain that the patriarch of Constantinople -- also known as the "ecumenical Patriarch" -- is historically supposed to be the guardian of newer, not yet independent Orthodox churches. That was how he functioned in past centuries -- in fact, the Russian church was started by missionaries from Constantinople.
Bartholomew, the current Patriarch of Constantinople, does seem to take the idea of ecumenism seriously -- not just in the sense of looking after smaller Orthodox churches, but also in the sense of interfaith dialogue. His outreach to Catholic, Muslim, and other leaders has been unprecedented in the Orthodox world. He is also generally an advocate for religious tolerance, and has been a great supporter of environmental causes.
But the more nationalistic/Russophilic strains of Russian Orthodoxy -- which have been quite dominant under Kirill, the current Patriarch of Moscow, given their usefulness to Putin -- have long referred to Moscow as "the Third Rome". The idea is that Rome was once the center of Christianity, but when the Western Roman Empire fell, Constantinople became "the second Rome". And when Constantinople fell to the Turks, Moscow inherited the mantle.
People who subscribe to this set of beliefs really think that only Russia has preserved true Christianity, and therefore Russia is the most important country in the world, and its destined savior. They also certainly think Moscow should have authority over any churches that it has historically supervised... whatever the circumstances under which that supervisory relationship came about. It's creepy stuff... quite imperialistic, and very reminiscent of some American Christian nationalists' views about America.
(Source: I grew up Orthodox.)
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:18 PM on March 31, 2022 [50 favorites]
Orthodox churches, but especially the patriarchates of Constantinople and Moscow, have had many bitter disputes over the centuries. It's just part of the, well, Byzantine weirdness (or dysfunction, if you prefer) of the Orthodox world. The arguments generally have to do with the Orthodox churches of small countries deciding which larger church to seek affiliation with. As you might imagine, there have been a number of these disputes since the end of the Cold War, with the churches in quite a few countries that were part of the USSR or the Warsaw Pact seeking to disaffiliate with Moscow and recognize Constantinople as their spiritual "parent" instead.
Eastern Orthodox Christianity has no Pope. But the thing about those two churches -- Constantinople and Moscow -- is that they both like to think of themselves as, unofficially, the closest thing there is to the "Vatican" of Orthodoxy.
The patriarch of Constantinople is often referred to as "first among equals" in relation to the other Orthodox patriarchs (the major historic ones being the patriarchs of Moscow, Antioch, Jerusalem, and Alexandria, but there are also patriarchs/metropolitans/archbishops for the autocephalous churches of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Georgia, Greece, North America, Poland, Romania, and Serbia).
Many Orthodox theologians and believers maintain that the patriarch of Constantinople -- also known as the "ecumenical Patriarch" -- is historically supposed to be the guardian of newer, not yet independent Orthodox churches. That was how he functioned in past centuries -- in fact, the Russian church was started by missionaries from Constantinople.
Bartholomew, the current Patriarch of Constantinople, does seem to take the idea of ecumenism seriously -- not just in the sense of looking after smaller Orthodox churches, but also in the sense of interfaith dialogue. His outreach to Catholic, Muslim, and other leaders has been unprecedented in the Orthodox world. He is also generally an advocate for religious tolerance, and has been a great supporter of environmental causes.
But the more nationalistic/Russophilic strains of Russian Orthodoxy -- which have been quite dominant under Kirill, the current Patriarch of Moscow, given their usefulness to Putin -- have long referred to Moscow as "the Third Rome". The idea is that Rome was once the center of Christianity, but when the Western Roman Empire fell, Constantinople became "the second Rome". And when Constantinople fell to the Turks, Moscow inherited the mantle.
People who subscribe to this set of beliefs really think that only Russia has preserved true Christianity, and therefore Russia is the most important country in the world, and its destined savior. They also certainly think Moscow should have authority over any churches that it has historically supervised... whatever the circumstances under which that supervisory relationship came about. It's creepy stuff... quite imperialistic, and very reminiscent of some American Christian nationalists' views about America.
(Source: I grew up Orthodox.)
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:18 PM on March 31, 2022 [50 favorites]
Adding: I see now that Eyebrows McGee offered some good info above on some of the current tensions in the Orthodox world, but my comment above offers some deeper historical background that I hope may be useful in understanding how things got to where they are now.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:25 PM on March 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:25 PM on March 31, 2022 [12 favorites]
A bit of Dutch politics related to Ukraine: Two members of the Senate split from the FVD over the refusal of the FVD party leader, Thierry Baudet, to be present at Zelenskyy's address to the Tweede Kamer, the Dutch Congress.
"We regret this state of affairs, but consider our position on Ukraine to be fundamental and moreover connected to the origins of FVD as an agitator of the referendum on the Association Treaty," the party writes in a response. Party leader Baudet was one of the few Western politicians in recent weeks not to blame Russian president Vladimir Putin for the war.
FVD, Forum for Demagogy, sorry, "Democracy" is one of the non-marginal extreme right-wing parties in our political system, and one of the two covering the entire spectrum: immigration, the covid hoax and other conspiracy theories, NL out of the EU, you name it. Baudet is also heavy on racial purity.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:27 PM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
"We regret this state of affairs, but consider our position on Ukraine to be fundamental and moreover connected to the origins of FVD as an agitator of the referendum on the Association Treaty," the party writes in a response. Party leader Baudet was one of the few Western politicians in recent weeks not to blame Russian president Vladimir Putin for the war.
FVD, Forum for Demagogy, sorry, "Democracy" is one of the non-marginal extreme right-wing parties in our political system, and one of the two covering the entire spectrum: immigration, the covid hoax and other conspiracy theories, NL out of the EU, you name it. Baudet is also heavy on racial purity.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:27 PM on March 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
OK, I looked it up, and I guess there has been only one previous full-on Moscow-Constantinople schism since the fall of the USSR. It was in 1996, and it concerned Estonia. They settled their differences after a few months.
But I could swear there have been other very tense moments in the intervening years between these two Orthodox power centers, over similar issues in other parts of the "post-Soviet" world. I just can't recall the details.
Given the intensity of the Ukraine situation, it may be some time before the current split is patched up.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:36 PM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
But I could swear there have been other very tense moments in the intervening years between these two Orthodox power centers, over similar issues in other parts of the "post-Soviet" world. I just can't recall the details.
Given the intensity of the Ukraine situation, it may be some time before the current split is patched up.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:36 PM on March 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
In speed and scale, Russia's war against Ukraine has forced the worst refugee crisis since WWII
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-01/russias-war-in-ukraine-refugee-crisis-compared-to-wwii/100941590
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-01/russias-war-in-ukraine-refugee-crisis-compared-to-wwii/100941590
when the Syrian war started 11 years ago, it took 2.5 years for 1 million children to become refugees.posted by freethefeet at 12:11 AM on April 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
“In Ukraine, it took two weeks.”
Here’s a case of “if this was in a novel I’d roll my eyes”, a tattered copy of the History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire in Russian “lies on the pavement at Russian position which was overran by Ukrainian forces, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, today”. Photo taken by AP’s Vadim Ghirdă.
It’s probably not a good sign for the invaders if their soldiers think to read Edward Gibbon on the collapse of an empire
posted by Kattullus at 12:37 AM on April 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
It’s probably not a good sign for the invaders if their soldiers think to read Edward Gibbon on the collapse of an empire
posted by Kattullus at 12:37 AM on April 1, 2022 [19 favorites]
Russian soldiers who'd never seen asphalt
I think this was mentioned here, but not followed up on. The link is about asphalt not being common in Russia outside the major cities, and high levels of poverty and inequality generally there.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:51 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
I think this was mentioned here, but not followed up on. The link is about asphalt not being common in Russia outside the major cities, and high levels of poverty and inequality generally there.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 1:51 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Kyiv Independent: Putin surrounded by doctors, including thyroid cancer specialist:
He traveled with five doctors on average in 2016-2017, according to an investigation by Project, a Russian media outlet. Putin has also expressed interest in alternative medicine.posted by acb at 2:28 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
They want modern jets (claim they could train up in 2-3 weeks) and SAMs.
Whether or not two to three weeks is realistic, it's true that Ukraine only had so many Fulcrums and Flankers to start with, never enough to achieve and maintain air superiority so Russia is willing to continue losing their own aircraft and pilots. And even if MiGs in the west are quietly shipped as parts instead of flown in intact, that could only keep them flying so long at their current low sortie rates. (I don't think that's even an option for the Flankers.)
So something is going to have to happen if the war is going to bog down, and the resolution of a stalemate on the ground becomes dependent on the ability to exert air control during an operation (if not total air superiority, which would be a tall order).
That said, neither F-15s or F-16s are ideal; although surplus F-16s do have the benefit of being extremely plentiful. The systems are reasonably straightforward to learn; but the control setup is different (a right hand sidestick that barely moves; pressure on it is interpreted by a computer). And supporting F-16s would require a logistical and maintenance tail which would mean much more direct participation by NATO countries if not NATO in name.
The ideal plane for Ukraine in the current situation is the Gripen. Operates from forest highways, carries modern armaments, fully networked, ten minute turnaround time. Possibly less escalatory from a NATO perspective too; although I don't know how the Swedes would feel about sticking their necks out.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:38 AM on April 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
Whether or not two to three weeks is realistic, it's true that Ukraine only had so many Fulcrums and Flankers to start with, never enough to achieve and maintain air superiority so Russia is willing to continue losing their own aircraft and pilots. And even if MiGs in the west are quietly shipped as parts instead of flown in intact, that could only keep them flying so long at their current low sortie rates. (I don't think that's even an option for the Flankers.)
So something is going to have to happen if the war is going to bog down, and the resolution of a stalemate on the ground becomes dependent on the ability to exert air control during an operation (if not total air superiority, which would be a tall order).
That said, neither F-15s or F-16s are ideal; although surplus F-16s do have the benefit of being extremely plentiful. The systems are reasonably straightforward to learn; but the control setup is different (a right hand sidestick that barely moves; pressure on it is interpreted by a computer). And supporting F-16s would require a logistical and maintenance tail which would mean much more direct participation by NATO countries if not NATO in name.
The ideal plane for Ukraine in the current situation is the Gripen. Operates from forest highways, carries modern armaments, fully networked, ten minute turnaround time. Possibly less escalatory from a NATO perspective too; although I don't know how the Swedes would feel about sticking their necks out.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:38 AM on April 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
President Zelensky's address today, on the 36th day of his country's defense.
If we look at lists of "Great wartime speeches" (for example) it is rare to find anything more recent than WW2 cited. Zelinsky's addresses - delivered in today's radically different information environment - deserve a place on that list. Wartime leaders must decide what information to share and what to keep secret - when to be matter of fact and when to be evocative, how to address a wide set of audience groups. The stakes could not be higher and time is very short. Zelensky pulls all of this off and seems to come over as being completely truthful and open.
Also:
Phillips P. OBrien on the Belgorod attack 🧵
posted by rongorongo at 4:03 AM on April 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
If we look at lists of "Great wartime speeches" (for example) it is rare to find anything more recent than WW2 cited. Zelinsky's addresses - delivered in today's radically different information environment - deserve a place on that list. Wartime leaders must decide what information to share and what to keep secret - when to be matter of fact and when to be evocative, how to address a wide set of audience groups. The stakes could not be higher and time is very short. Zelensky pulls all of this off and seems to come over as being completely truthful and open.
Also:
Phillips P. OBrien on the Belgorod attack 🧵
posted by rongorongo at 4:03 AM on April 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
Gripens are NATO-compliant and used by NATO forces; Czechia flies them
posted by acb at 4:14 AM on April 1, 2022
posted by acb at 4:14 AM on April 1, 2022
Artifice_Eternity and Eyebrows McGee – Any comments on the following article? Does Putin hold any sincere personal religious beliefs about Russia, Ukraine, and his role in the war?
How One Priest Turned Putin’s Invasion Into a Holy War: The decade-long effort to wrap Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in faith — specifically, the flowing vestments of the Russian Orthodox Church., Jack Jenkins, Rolling Stone, March 19, 2022 [if paywall, archive.org link]:
posted by cenoxo at 5:05 AM on April 1, 2022
How One Priest Turned Putin’s Invasion Into a Holy War: The decade-long effort to wrap Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in faith — specifically, the flowing vestments of the Russian Orthodox Church., Jack Jenkins, Rolling Stone, March 19, 2022 [if paywall, archive.org link]:
Two days before he launched a bloody invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin sat alone in front of a camera and delivered a rambling, hour-long address. It outlined the ideological justification for what would ultimately become his “special military action” in Ukraine — an invasion that, as far as Putin was concerned, had more than a little to do with religion.More details in the article.
“Ukraine is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space,” he said.
Two days later, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, spoke to military leaders and published a statement in honor of Defender of the Fatherland Day. The cleric congratulated Putin for his “high and responsible service to the people of Russia,” declared the Russian Orthodox Church has “always striven to make a significant contribution to the patriotic education of compatriots,” and lauded military service as “an active manifestation of evangelical love for neighbors.”
Within hours, bombs began to rain down on Ukraine….
posted by cenoxo at 5:05 AM on April 1, 2022
Understanding War: The Risks of a Russian Ceasefire Offer
Ukraine may soon face a new threat in this war—Russia’s ceasefire offer. It seems odd to say that a ceasefire is a threat. Once war begins, the default position in the West is to seize the earliest opportunity to “stop the fighting.” But while some ceasefires lead to peace, others lead to more war—as the Russians have repeatedly shown. The frontlines frozen in a ceasefire set the conditions for the negotiations and reconstruction that follow. They also set conditions for future conflict. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to accept a Russian ceasefire offer that sets conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms or gives Russia leverage on Ukraine with which to force concessions and surrenders...posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:16 AM on April 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
Mayor Atroshenko of Chernihiv was just interviewed by CNN, describing the situation as a humanitarian disaster. Human Rights Watch published a description of the situation in Chernihiv, as of a couple of days ago. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 5:44 AM on April 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
On the evening of March 23, the main bridge over the Desna River, on the road leading out of Chernihiv south toward Kyiv, was destroyed. This effectively cut off vehicle traffic to and from areas under Ukrainian control, as Russian forces control the other main roads in and out of the city. On March 26, several Ukrainian and international journalists who were reporting from the destroyed bridge said the area came under sustained heavy shelling while they were there, injuring one of them.That hospital was shelled today.
“This bridge let us receive humanitarian aid and evacuate injured and peaceful civilians – women and children,” [Olexander Lomako, secretary of the city council of Chernihiv] said. “Now there is only [a] pedestrian bridge left. And [when] somebody dares to cross it, Russians shell the bridge.” Human Rights Watch has no information on specific efforts to deliver impartial humanitarian assistance via access routes under Russian control and whether Russian forces have denied access.
Lomako said that the biggest problem for residents remaining in Chernihiv is the absence of a water supply. They have had to use generators to pump water from wells, he said, but there is not enough to supply water to everyone, and some have had to rely on water from rivers and lakes, or melted snow.
Vladyslav Atroshenko, Chernihiv’s mayor, said at a media briefing on March 26 that the city was “blown to smithereens” and that officials were trying to evacuate by “any means” 44 people with severe injuries, military, and civilians, including three children.
A doctor Human Rights Watch spoke with on March 26 said that his hospital in Chernihiv only had electricity from its generators and the generators were starting to run out of fuel. Under the current situation, the generators are scheduled to be turned on for four hours each day. “We use that time to cook baby formula for the babies,” he said. Surgery requires a lot of generator fuel, he said, and the generators do not provide enough power for hospital staff to properly operate medical equipment like their advanced X-ray machine, which helps them assess injuries. The water shortages have also created problems. “Since we don’t have power and water, we can’t sterilize our medical tools, so we’ve had to use disposable kits,” he said.
posted by Kattullus at 5:44 AM on April 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
acb: Putin has also expressed interest in alternative medicine.
Ah-hah! Perhaps his forces are pursuing a strategy of homeopathic victory, where smaller and small advances are ACTUALLY greater and greater victories.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:51 AM on April 1, 2022 [43 favorites]
Ah-hah! Perhaps his forces are pursuing a strategy of homeopathic victory, where smaller and small advances are ACTUALLY greater and greater victories.
posted by wenestvedt at 5:51 AM on April 1, 2022 [43 favorites]
Gripens are NATO-compliant and used by NATO forces; Czechia flies them.
Hungary, too. But as a Swedish export they wouldn't need to be supplied or supported by a NATO nation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:57 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Hungary, too. But as a Swedish export they wouldn't need to be supplied or supported by a NATO nation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:57 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Zelensky pulls all of this off and seems to come over as being completely truthful and open.
It's true, his speeches are well worth reading. Yesterday he addressed the parliaments of Australia, the Netherlands and Belgium within hours of each other, delivering a bespoke message for each, and yet they all relate to and build on each other. The man is a force of nature.
posted by rory at 6:43 AM on April 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
It's true, his speeches are well worth reading. Yesterday he addressed the parliaments of Australia, the Netherlands and Belgium within hours of each other, delivering a bespoke message for each, and yet they all relate to and build on each other. The man is a force of nature.
posted by rory at 6:43 AM on April 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
Putin has also expressed interest in alternative medicine.
Ah-hah! Perhaps his forces are pursuing a strategy of homeopathic victory, where smaller and small advances are ACTUALLY greater and greater victories.
Gwyneth Paltrow's villain redemption storyline is wide open now.
posted by cendawanita at 6:46 AM on April 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
Ah-hah! Perhaps his forces are pursuing a strategy of homeopathic victory, where smaller and small advances are ACTUALLY greater and greater victories.
Gwyneth Paltrow's villain redemption storyline is wide open now.
posted by cendawanita at 6:46 AM on April 1, 2022 [14 favorites]
Zelensky pulls all of this off and seems to come over as being completely truthful and open.
1420 apparently interviewed Muscovites 3 days ago about the man, and it's not rly a surprise, but it tells you a lot (esp when I self-reflect on my worldview) how even the most skeptical of govt messaging, when the epistemic closure is so comprehensive, would still believe that there must be a kernel of truth to the accusations (those being Zelenskyy is incompetent and a Western puppet).
posted by cendawanita at 6:50 AM on April 1, 2022
1420 apparently interviewed Muscovites 3 days ago about the man, and it's not rly a surprise, but it tells you a lot (esp when I self-reflect on my worldview) how even the most skeptical of govt messaging, when the epistemic closure is so comprehensive, would still believe that there must be a kernel of truth to the accusations (those being Zelenskyy is incompetent and a Western puppet).
posted by cendawanita at 6:50 AM on April 1, 2022
FT: Russian guardsmen case reveals dissent in security force over invasion of Ukraine
(Guardsmen here refers to Rosgvardia)
(Guardsmen here refers to Rosgvardia)
The guardsmen had been deployed before the invasion to occupied Crimea for military exercises, according to Pavel Chikov, head of Agora, the Russian human rights group. The day after the war began on February 24, they received orders to cross into Ukraine but refused, Chikov wrote on his channel in the Telegram messaging app.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:33 AM on April 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
The men argued that the order was unlawful: they were not soldiers, but members of a domestic force whose duties did not extend beyond Russia.
...
Ahead of the next session in the case on Friday, the lawyer Benyash said nine of the 12 guardsmen who filed the wrongful dismissal case had withdrawn the claims under huge pressure. There had been threats of criminal cases unless they backed down, he said.
“Some are seeing their relatives turn away from them,” he said.
I've read that Ukraine had already started the purchase process for Grippens from Sweden prior to the 2014 revolution and war. My understanding from fighter pilots is that to be really combat capable in a new aircraft takes a considerable amount of training and flight time -- like 1000 hours or so. Once you factor in various limits on number of simulators, fuel, maintenance schedules that means a year or more.
posted by interogative mood at 8:38 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:38 AM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
As late as last year, the acquisition still seems to have been undecided.
I don't know if 1,000 hours are typically needed for a type transition; but two to three weeks does sound awfully ambitious. (Here's a write-up of the experience of F-16 training from after basic flight training to finish, but that's probably more extensive than basic type transition has to be for fighter pilots who at this point will have seen more combat than most in the world.)
It's probably part of the idea that with newer, western planes come with updated standoff weapons (and the ability to receive shared targeting data). The Meteor the Gripen carries is meant to meet or exceed the capabilities of its Russian counterpart (the R-77), and it can be used very long range (over 100mi/200km, 'no escape' under 32mi/60km). The newer the planes and weapons the less it is about out-flying the opponent, the more about having the sensor and weapons to fire first. Which especially makes sense for Ukraine. Pilots are precious for all air forces, but especially for them.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:29 AM on April 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don't know if 1,000 hours are typically needed for a type transition; but two to three weeks does sound awfully ambitious. (Here's a write-up of the experience of F-16 training from after basic flight training to finish, but that's probably more extensive than basic type transition has to be for fighter pilots who at this point will have seen more combat than most in the world.)
It's probably part of the idea that with newer, western planes come with updated standoff weapons (and the ability to receive shared targeting data). The Meteor the Gripen carries is meant to meet or exceed the capabilities of its Russian counterpart (the R-77), and it can be used very long range (over 100mi/200km, 'no escape' under 32mi/60km). The newer the planes and weapons the less it is about out-flying the opponent, the more about having the sensor and weapons to fire first. Which especially makes sense for Ukraine. Pilots are precious for all air forces, but especially for them.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:29 AM on April 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
...that means a year or more.
If they're keeping a lot of planes on the ground and have idle pilots with nothing to do, the 2nd best time to start is today right?
posted by VTX at 10:05 AM on April 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
If they're keeping a lot of planes on the ground and have idle pilots with nothing to do, the 2nd best time to start is today right?
posted by VTX at 10:05 AM on April 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
An investigative report looks into Putin’s health; tl,dr: while his people make efforts to suppress any signs of potential weakness, there’s an entire hospital department dedicated to looking after him, flight logs show doctors going to see him at times when he was away from the spotlight, and his medical entourage has increased in size and picked up neurosurgeons and thyroid cancer specialists.
Also, antler baths.
posted by acb at 12:58 PM on April 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
Also, antler baths.
posted by acb at 12:58 PM on April 1, 2022 [9 favorites]
There is chatter on Twitter that Russian forces near Kyiv have been routed. But it seems that people are using the term incorrectly, that what's happening is an organized, if rushed, retreat.
Terminology aside, it seems that the Russian military has completely given up on taking Kyiv. There are lots of people who've been living under occupation in that area who won't be anymore.
posted by Kattullus at 1:09 PM on April 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
Terminology aside, it seems that the Russian military has completely given up on taking Kyiv. There are lots of people who've been living under occupation in that area who won't be anymore.
posted by Kattullus at 1:09 PM on April 1, 2022 [11 favorites]
I just wanted to make clear that I meant "won't be living under occupation anymore", I realize that the last sentence of my comment was ambiguous.
posted by Kattullus at 1:16 PM on April 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 1:16 PM on April 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
How One Priest Turned Putin’s Invasion Into a Holy War: The decade-long effort to wrap Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in faith — specifically, the flowing vestments of the Russian Orthodox Church., Jack Jenkins, Rolling Stone, March 19, 2022
Well, first of all, LOL -- Kirill isn't "one priest", he's the head of a 100-million-odd-member Christian church.
Maybe he actually believes in the blend of mystical Russian nationalism, cultural chauvinism, social conservatism, and Orthodoxy that he preaches.
Does Putin believe in it? I highly doubt it. I think he's still KGB to the bone -- cynical and sociopathic. This Russkii Mir stuff is useful propaganda, that's all.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:38 PM on April 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
Well, first of all, LOL -- Kirill isn't "one priest", he's the head of a 100-million-odd-member Christian church.
Maybe he actually believes in the blend of mystical Russian nationalism, cultural chauvinism, social conservatism, and Orthodoxy that he preaches.
Does Putin believe in it? I highly doubt it. I think he's still KGB to the bone -- cynical and sociopathic. This Russkii Mir stuff is useful propaganda, that's all.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:38 PM on April 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
FTFA:
posted by wenestvedt at 1:39 PM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
According to one of Putin’s acquaintances, for example, the Russian president allegedly bathes in an extract made from boiled deer antlers. This alternative therapy, which supposedly boosts the cardiovascular system and rejuvenates the skin, was recommended to Putin by Russia’s current Defense Minister Sergy Shoigu.If anyone has ever smelled what hot antlers smell like (e.g., from sawing or drilling them), I am told it's NASSSTY. Boiled antlers must render the kitchen uninhabitable for days.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:39 PM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Boiled antlers must render the kitchen uninhabitable for days.
I certainly would choose to sit at the far, far end of a long, long table from someone who bathed in boiled deer antler juice.
posted by tclark at 1:53 PM on April 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
I certainly would choose to sit at the far, far end of a long, long table from someone who bathed in boiled deer antler juice.
posted by tclark at 1:53 PM on April 1, 2022 [12 favorites]
Slava Malamud called the cathedral fit only for a Black Mass, which I think is grossly unfair to modern Satanists.
But yes, it has Hitler's hat as a relic of sorts, and sounds deeply necrofascist in its aesthetic. I wonder whether anyone involved in its conception was a Warhammer 40K fan.
posted by acb at 2:03 PM on April 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
But yes, it has Hitler's hat as a relic of sorts, and sounds deeply necrofascist in its aesthetic. I wonder whether anyone involved in its conception was a Warhammer 40K fan.
posted by acb at 2:03 PM on April 1, 2022 [10 favorites]
The Cathedral of Hitler's Hat.
posted by UN at 2:32 PM on April 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by UN at 2:32 PM on April 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
Timur Suleimenov, the first deputy chief of staff to the president of Kazakhstan, gave an interview to Euractiv while on a trip to Brussels, and unless this high-ranking Kazakh official has gone way off-track, the government in Astana is not so much inching away from Russia, as it is leaving a Kazakhstan shaped hole in the wall Russia is standing next to.
Some quotes:
posted by Kattullus at 2:35 PM on April 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
Some quotes:
Kazakhstan will not be a tool to circumvent the sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU. We are going to abide by the sanctions. Even though we are part of the Economic Union with Russia, Belarus and other countries, we are also part of the international community.The current government of Kazakhstan wouldn't be in power if Russian soldiers hadn't suppressed a popular uprising this winter. No honor among thieves, and all that.
[…]
Russia chose to introduce legislation to prohibit the word “war”. They are calling it a special military operation. But in Kazakhstan, we call it what it is, unfortunately.
[…]
Of course, Russia wanted us to be more on their side. But Kazakhstan respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine. We did not recognise and will not recognise the Crimea situation and neither the Donbas situation because the UN does not recognise them. We will only respect decisions taken at the level of the United Nations.
posted by Kattullus at 2:35 PM on April 1, 2022 [18 favorites]
This news of a retreat from Kyiv is heartening; I hope it's not some weird feint or a trade off in terms of acceptable casualties to cement the land-bridge in the south.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:55 PM on April 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:55 PM on April 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
According to the new, Russia avoid default again by making another installment of payment to creditors. It seems that this is somewhat unexpected by some people. I don't know whether Russia avoiding default matters in their ability to prosecute the war. Can someone more knowledgeable about these matters shed some light?
posted by Pantalaimon at 4:58 PM on April 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Pantalaimon at 4:58 PM on April 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
The current government of Kazakhstan wouldn't be in power if Russian soldiers hadn't suppressed a popular uprising this winter. No honor among thieves, and all that.
If Russia looked as strong as it had looked a few months ago, Kazakhstan wouldn't be giving it the cold shoulder. This suggests that Russia's status has truly diminished.
There have been reports that China sent its hackers to attack Ukraine just before the invasion, presumably in the spirit of authoritarian camaraderie Xi and Putin had been talking about during the Winter Olympics. I'm wondering whether much of China backing away from Russia is not so much fear that America/Europe will stop buying Shenzhen-made gadgets and Christmas decorations from Yiwu as the realisation that if they wait a bit and let Russia make its own mistakes and become diminished by them, they can step in as the senior party, with Xi appointing Putin's successor when his time comes and keeping Moscow on a short leash.
posted by acb at 5:09 PM on April 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
If Russia looked as strong as it had looked a few months ago, Kazakhstan wouldn't be giving it the cold shoulder. This suggests that Russia's status has truly diminished.
There have been reports that China sent its hackers to attack Ukraine just before the invasion, presumably in the spirit of authoritarian camaraderie Xi and Putin had been talking about during the Winter Olympics. I'm wondering whether much of China backing away from Russia is not so much fear that America/Europe will stop buying Shenzhen-made gadgets and Christmas decorations from Yiwu as the realisation that if they wait a bit and let Russia make its own mistakes and become diminished by them, they can step in as the senior party, with Xi appointing Putin's successor when his time comes and keeping Moscow on a short leash.
posted by acb at 5:09 PM on April 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Zelenskyy sat for a special interview on Fox News: Special Report’s Bret Baier sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview airing Friday evening and asked him about the current status of the war with Russia and the negotiations underway to potentially end it.
He is a brilliant communication strategist.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:12 PM on April 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
He is a brilliant communication strategist.
posted by Silvery Fish at 5:12 PM on April 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
A Russian debt default will have wide ranging and unpredictable impacts on the global economy. The Russian economy would also suffer; but it wouldn’t have an immediate impact on their prosecution of the war. The Russian economy is already taking a huge hit from the sanctions.
posted by interogative mood at 5:24 PM on April 1, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 5:24 PM on April 1, 2022
A Russian debt default will have wide ranging and unpredictable impacts on the global economy. The Russian economy would also suffer; but it wouldn’t have an immediate impact on their prosecution of the war. The Russian economy is already taking a huge hit from the sanctions.
Honestly, the kind of person who invests in Russian bonds post LTCM, post Crimea, knew who they were getting into bed with and can probably wait it out. The effects would mostly be felt by the Russian people as the government will be hard pressed to issue new debt but I kinda assume very few people are in a lending mood at the moment anyways.
posted by pwnguin at 10:01 PM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Honestly, the kind of person who invests in Russian bonds post LTCM, post Crimea, knew who they were getting into bed with and can probably wait it out. The effects would mostly be felt by the Russian people as the government will be hard pressed to issue new debt but I kinda assume very few people are in a lending mood at the moment anyways.
posted by pwnguin at 10:01 PM on April 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
@ianbremmer: "ethnic russians, dominant nationality in the ussr, became minority populations in post-soviet independent states. the question: do they or do they not clash on the basis of civilizational divide? my phd research from way back: no..."
@kamilkazani: "While discussing the prospect of National Divorce, analysts overconcentrate on ethnic tensions. And yet, tensions go far beyond the ethnic dimension. The problem of Locals vs Varyangs which is parallel to Creoles vs Peninsulares problem in Spanish America is at least as important..."
posted by kliuless at 10:21 PM on April 1, 2022
@kamilkazani: "While discussing the prospect of National Divorce, analysts overconcentrate on ethnic tensions. And yet, tensions go far beyond the ethnic dimension. The problem of Locals vs Varyangs which is parallel to Creoles vs Peninsulares problem in Spanish America is at least as important..."
posted by kliuless at 10:21 PM on April 1, 2022
Unfortunately it isn’t just the people who invested in Russian bonds post 2014 who would be hurt by a default, much like it wasn’t just Lehman Brothers shareholders who got obliterated in 2008 when it collapsed.
posted by interogative mood at 12:14 AM on April 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:14 AM on April 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. 4-1-22.
Brothers shareholders who got obliterated in 2008 when it collapsed.
'And hold your gaze
There's coke in the Midas touch
A joke in the way that we rust
And breathe again
And you'll find loss
And you'll fear what you found
When the weather comes, oh
Tearing down'.
posted by clavdivs at 12:56 AM on April 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
Brothers shareholders who got obliterated in 2008 when it collapsed.
'And hold your gaze
There's coke in the Midas touch
A joke in the way that we rust
And breathe again
And you'll find loss
And you'll fear what you found
When the weather comes, oh
Tearing down'.
posted by clavdivs at 12:56 AM on April 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
Honestly, the kind of person who invests in Russian bonds post LTCM, post Crimea, knew who they were getting into bed with and can probably wait it out.
If you're a schoolteacher in Florida, you're one of those people, and your ability to ride this shit out depends on your anticipated retirement date.
posted by ocschwar at 5:35 AM on April 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
If you're a schoolteacher in Florida, you're one of those people, and your ability to ride this shit out depends on your anticipated retirement date.
posted by ocschwar at 5:35 AM on April 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
"Marianna, the pregnant girl from #Mariupol, turns out to be one of the refugees that has been taken to #Russia in violation of the evacuation agreement.
There they put her in front of a camera and have her say there was no aerial attack on the hospital.... other sources are stating Marianna is not in Russia but in separatist-occupied Donetsk, which in principal is just as much a violation." (link to tweet with video)
posted by BungaDunga at 8:20 AM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
There they put her in front of a camera and have her say there was no aerial attack on the hospital.... other sources are stating Marianna is not in Russia but in separatist-occupied Donetsk, which in principal is just as much a violation." (link to tweet with video)
posted by BungaDunga at 8:20 AM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
(of course, a week ago they were saying she wasn't pregnant, the hospital was actually empty except for Azov, and that Russia had in fact bombed it. Guess they changed their minds again)
posted by BungaDunga at 8:25 AM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 8:25 AM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
Pope implicitly criticises Putin on invasion, considers Kyiv trip
VALLETTA, April 2 (Reuters) - Pope Francis said on Saturday he was considering a trip to Kyiv and implicitly criticised Russian President Vladimir Putin over the invasion of Ukraine, saying a "potentate" was fomenting conflict for nationalist interests.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:18 AM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
Francis made the comments, first to reporters on the plane taking him to Malta for a two-day visit, and then in a hard-hitting speech in the island's presidential palace that left little doubt who he was referring to.
The NYT has a pretty amazing interactive piece on How Kyiv Has Withstood Russia’s Attacks.
posted by vers at 10:26 AM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by vers at 10:26 AM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
Kyiv Independent has launched a youtube channel (only two videos so far)
posted by maggiemaggie at 10:48 AM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by maggiemaggie at 10:48 AM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
If you're a schoolteacher in Florida, you're one of those people, and your ability to ride this shit out depends on your anticipated retirement date.
It's $300 million of bonds in a fund with $150 billion in the bank. Whether they divest seems more a political question than actuarial, and the Florida Retirement System is big enough to ride this out either way.
To put this into further context, if divesting now was a total writeoff, that's a loss of 300 dollars per FRS member, or 12 dollars per Floridian. If 300 dollars is a make or break retirement moment, the good news is that both 2020 and 2021 were gangbusters for the plan.
posted by pwnguin at 11:23 AM on April 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
It's $300 million of bonds in a fund with $150 billion in the bank. Whether they divest seems more a political question than actuarial, and the Florida Retirement System is big enough to ride this out either way.
To put this into further context, if divesting now was a total writeoff, that's a loss of 300 dollars per FRS member, or 12 dollars per Floridian. If 300 dollars is a make or break retirement moment, the good news is that both 2020 and 2021 were gangbusters for the plan.
posted by pwnguin at 11:23 AM on April 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
Vladimir Putin ‘running out’ of missiles (wait for it... take a beat) – because parts are made in Ukraine (rimshot)
posted by sammyo at 12:44 PM on April 2, 2022 [21 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 12:44 PM on April 2, 2022 [21 favorites]
This interview with a former Kremlin advisor, Sergey Karaganov is the type of world philosophy that I just find completely mind boggling but omnipresent amongst everyday people. Namely the idea that a country / society NEEDS "state-building ELITES" to thrive. Like i can't see how that isn't an oxymoron of an idea. But that is truely how this society largely feels. It's like some sort of mass Stockholm syndrome.
It also seems to contradict the common phrase to toss off worries about how sanctions and ongoing war will negatively affect the country. Many will say some variation of "we have enough food to eat, we will be fine" which seems like a normal enough response to a situation out of your control, except here it sits right there in the minds next to a deep need for a big strong daddy to tell you what to eat and how to eat it and at what time. Ability to sustain yourself is absolutely decoupled from any sort of liberty.
If I try to talk to anyone about this, they usually end up saying that I'm naive and just don't understand, I can only think linearly or some shit. All these competing narratives need to truthfully co-exist in their heads because like a lot of soviet manufactured goods, their bullshit detectors are completely broken.
posted by WeekendJen at 1:17 PM on April 2, 2022 [16 favorites]
It also seems to contradict the common phrase to toss off worries about how sanctions and ongoing war will negatively affect the country. Many will say some variation of "we have enough food to eat, we will be fine" which seems like a normal enough response to a situation out of your control, except here it sits right there in the minds next to a deep need for a big strong daddy to tell you what to eat and how to eat it and at what time. Ability to sustain yourself is absolutely decoupled from any sort of liberty.
If I try to talk to anyone about this, they usually end up saying that I'm naive and just don't understand, I can only think linearly or some shit. All these competing narratives need to truthfully co-exist in their heads because like a lot of soviet manufactured goods, their bullshit detectors are completely broken.
posted by WeekendJen at 1:17 PM on April 2, 2022 [16 favorites]
Christopher Reuter for Spiegel International:
Liberated from the Russians: A Visit to Trostyanets After the End of the Occupation
Liberated from the Russians: A Visit to Trostyanets After the End of the Occupation
Before withdrawing, [the Russians] defecated in the offices and auditorium on the first floor – room by room. The slightly dried-out piles are everywhere on the floor and chairs. Down below, in the automobile shop in the courtyard, the body of a civilian lies next to the inspection pit. Another soldier says that he had lifted the corpse out of the pit "and first wiped off the feces." A pile had also been left on the dead body.posted by Kabanos at 1:40 PM on April 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
I'm not going to link to any videos, but the footage out of Bucha is horrifying. There isn't much about this in English-language media, but The Guardian has a report. Here's an interview with the mayor. And here's a tweet by a French journalist who was in Bucha today. She calls it a hell.
posted by Kattullus at 2:40 PM on April 2, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:40 PM on April 2, 2022 [18 favorites]
Vladimir Putin ‘running out’ of missiles (wait for it... take a beat) – because parts are made in Ukraine (rimshot)
Does this mean Ukraine was selling Russia parts for missiles, etc. between 2014 and now? Because that seems... odd.
posted by ssg at 2:50 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Does this mean Ukraine was selling Russia parts for missiles, etc. between 2014 and now? Because that seems... odd.
posted by ssg at 2:50 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
I just rechecked some stats and it turns out I was wrong. While Russia has 500 billion or so with of outstanding foreign held bonds; only 50 billion of that is US Dollar or Euro denominated. The US and EU have frozen the holdings of the Russian Central Bank which amounts to about $350 Billion dollars. A lot of that is sitting in accounts at the NY Fed and the European Central Bank. So it seems like forcing the Russians to default would do very little to harm to anyone. The Bond holders would be able to recover their money by suing and forcing payment from those accounts; which is what is happening now.
posted by interogative mood at 3:06 PM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:06 PM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
Almost 300 people buried in ‘mass grave’ in Bucha outside Kyiv
posted by adamvasco at 3:23 PM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 3:23 PM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
This interview with a former Kremlin advisor, Sergey Karaganov
Oh my. That is a mind-boggling pile of shit.
posted by mumimor at 3:26 PM on April 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
Oh my. That is a mind-boggling pile of shit.
posted by mumimor at 3:26 PM on April 2, 2022 [9 favorites]
But, just to qualify my above comment. There is literally no way Russia can win this war now. If Europe had hesitated at the beginning of the war, or the US hadn't been committed to defend Ukraine's freedom, there might have been a chance. But that chance has gone, and even threats of nuclear engagement won't change that now.
They miscalculated, badly. And I can get how that happened. But it happened.
This doesn't mean terrible things won't happen. Perhaps they will. I won't discuss them. But Russia stands no chance in the long run, forget Napoleon and Hitler. The thing is, no one today wants to conquer Russia, they can have it.
But no one wants to be conquered by Russia, and that is a whole other question.
posted by mumimor at 3:45 PM on April 2, 2022 [24 favorites]
They miscalculated, badly. And I can get how that happened. But it happened.
This doesn't mean terrible things won't happen. Perhaps they will. I won't discuss them. But Russia stands no chance in the long run, forget Napoleon and Hitler. The thing is, no one today wants to conquer Russia, they can have it.
But no one wants to be conquered by Russia, and that is a whole other question.
posted by mumimor at 3:45 PM on April 2, 2022 [24 favorites]
I hate having a twitter feed full of bodies, but I really really hope it lends to putin, his entire theater government, and all propagandists not getting out of this one. Prior to such documentation, I thought that with the retreat they would go for some small "win" and normal relations would resume within a few years and the mfer would get away with it again. If this war ends with putin in charge and even the tiniest threads of international relations or trade I think it's just time for humanity to pack it up.
posted by WeekendJen at 4:03 PM on April 2, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by WeekendJen at 4:03 PM on April 2, 2022 [24 favorites]
I was waiting for confirmation about the attack inside Russia on the fuel dump. I wasn't expecting confirmation that the ammo dump was also a Ukrainian operation (and not one of the periodic accidents at Russian ammo storage centers.)
CBS News: Ukraine attacks Russian oil depot
CBS News: Ukraine attacks Russian oil depot
Kryviy Rih, Ukraine — Russia accused Ukrainian forces of staging a daring air raid against an oil depot inside Russian territory Friday morning. The regional governor said two Ukrainian helicopters attacked the fuel facility in Belgorod, about 20 miles inside Russia, and video showed storage tanks in flames.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:17 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
A U.S. official confirmed to CBS News senior national security correspondent David Martin that Ukrainian helicopters did carry out the strike, and anther one a couple days earlier against an ammunition depot in the same area. The official told Martin there was concern in Washington about how Russia might react to the strikes.
Christopher Reuter for Spiegel International:
Liberated from the Russians: A Visit to Trostyanets After the End of the Occupation
That article is worth reading, full of gems:
"They even plundered the second-hand clothing store," scoffs a resident who returned after the town was liberated. "Was that the plan? Invade the place to make off with used clothing? We would have been happy to just send it to them."
posted by Dip Flash at 4:30 PM on April 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
Liberated from the Russians: A Visit to Trostyanets After the End of the Occupation
That article is worth reading, full of gems:
"They even plundered the second-hand clothing store," scoffs a resident who returned after the town was liberated. "Was that the plan? Invade the place to make off with used clothing? We would have been happy to just send it to them."
posted by Dip Flash at 4:30 PM on April 2, 2022 [10 favorites]
Russia seems to be preparing for a long war focused for the short term on eastern Ukraine. They are signs they are training the army in Belarus in preparation for future use some months down the road. They are also going to be building up in the slice of Moldova they occupy; just to keep some of Ukraine’s forces pinned down.
posted by interogative mood at 5:01 PM on April 2, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 5:01 PM on April 2, 2022
Has anyone seen confirmation about the Russians leaving mines?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:03 PM on April 2, 2022
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:03 PM on April 2, 2022
Ukrainian drivers dodge Russian mines in the video that has gone viral on social media... A second video showed Ukrainian soldiers casually sweeping the mines to the side of the road with their boots.
posted by The Tensor at 5:12 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by The Tensor at 5:12 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Times: Bodies of mutilated children among horrors the Russians left behind (nonpaywall link)
Her neighbours in a neat brick house four doors down had been tied hand and foot and killed. Down the road, territorial defence fighters said they had found a basement where 18 bodies, men, women and children as young as 14 lay dead, their bodies mutilated.posted by Kabanos at 5:25 PM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is what the Russian forces have left behind as they retreat, destroying everything as they go. Mines have been hidden in the corpses that litter the streets.
I never thought the mobile crematoria were for soldiers. If they want to disguise the number of casualties they just adjust the totals and make sure no one can count the funerals. Disappearing the soldiers just raises questions and leaves parents and widows with questions.
posted by interogative mood at 5:34 PM on April 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:34 PM on April 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
Putin's regime must be destroyed
posted by glonous keming at 5:35 PM on April 2, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by glonous keming at 5:35 PM on April 2, 2022 [16 favorites]
There have been reports that China sent its hackers to attack Ukraine just before the invasion
@MaxRTucker
NEW details on @thetimes story about China hacking Ukraine.
Providing extra details here because it’s important it is taken seriously.
posted by Kabanos at 5:38 PM on April 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
@MaxRTucker
NEW details on @thetimes story about China hacking Ukraine.
Providing extra details here because it’s important it is taken seriously.
posted by Kabanos at 5:38 PM on April 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has accused Russian soldiers of deliberately mining areas in northern Ukraine as they withdraw or are pushed out by Ukrainian forces.
posted by adamvasco at 5:45 PM on April 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 5:45 PM on April 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
Lithuanian film director Mantas Kvedaravičius has been killed leaving Mariupolis.
He was the author of the documentary Mariupolis.
.
posted by adamvasco at 5:55 PM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
He was the author of the documentary Mariupolis.
.
posted by adamvasco at 5:55 PM on April 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
Hundreds of murdered civilians discovered as Russians withdraw from towns near Kyiv (GRAPHIC IMAGES) Kyiv Independent.
The photos appear to prove that the Russian forces carried out targeted, organized killings of civilians in Bucha, particularly of men: They are often found shot dead, with their hands tied behind their backs.
Leaving, the Russian military left mines and other explosives in Irpin and Bucha. On April 2 only, the Ukrainian forces found and deactivated 643 explosives in Irpin, according to the State Emergency Service.
posted by adamvasco at 6:07 PM on April 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
The photos appear to prove that the Russian forces carried out targeted, organized killings of civilians in Bucha, particularly of men: They are often found shot dead, with their hands tied behind their backs.
Leaving, the Russian military left mines and other explosives in Irpin and Bucha. On April 2 only, the Ukrainian forces found and deactivated 643 explosives in Irpin, according to the State Emergency Service.
posted by adamvasco at 6:07 PM on April 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
"Are we the baddies?" I wonder, as I mine a civilian corpse.
posted by ryanrs at 6:10 PM on April 2, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 6:10 PM on April 2, 2022 [18 favorites]
As the grim horrors of this war pile up, I don’t know how long western countries will be able to keep from moving closer and closer to direct involvement. Politically this path seems unsustainable unless Ukraine has some significant focus results in the east in the next week, or a peace deal is found.
posted by interogative mood at 6:35 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:35 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
Bret Devereaux (aka acoup.blog) points out on Twitter that there's a correlation between the amount of hazing endured by army recruits and the atrocities they subsequently commit against civilians.
posted by Slothrup at 7:01 PM on April 2, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Slothrup at 7:01 PM on April 2, 2022 [15 favorites]
JPost: Russia aims to capture eastern, southern Ukraine - Zelensky
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:40 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
A Ukrainian negotiator said on Saturday that Russia had indicated that draft peace treaty documents were at an advanced enough stage to allow for direct consultations between the two nations' leaders, Interfax Ukraine reported.And, doubtless, whatever they can squat on in the meanwhile.
The agency quoted David Arakhamia as telling Ukrainian television that Russia accepted Ukraine's overall position with the exception of its stance on Crimea.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:40 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
A mass grave was been found by Ukrainian forces as they recaptured Bucha today. 300 bodies— most of the adult male population of the village. The AFP and graphic photos seem to confirm it.
posted by interogative mood at 7:46 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:46 PM on April 2, 2022 [4 favorites]
This is no longer just Putin. Mass graves of bound civilian? Killing women, men and children? Defecating on the body of someone you have just murdered?
This is no longer a political psychopath, this is a mass of people who are commiting these genocidal atrocities, and with glee. Every single person who has indulged in these crimes has to be brought to justice, not just Putin. Every single politician who stood by and did nothing.
posted by doggod at 7:53 PM on April 2, 2022 [19 favorites]
This is no longer a political psychopath, this is a mass of people who are commiting these genocidal atrocities, and with glee. Every single person who has indulged in these crimes has to be brought to justice, not just Putin. Every single politician who stood by and did nothing.
posted by doggod at 7:53 PM on April 2, 2022 [19 favorites]
So, deportation to the east for Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens in the east, and mobile crematoria for Western Ukrainians.
Premeditated genocide to erase Ukrainian identity.
posted by ocschwar at 8:04 PM on April 2, 2022 [28 favorites]
Premeditated genocide to erase Ukrainian identity.
posted by ocschwar at 8:04 PM on April 2, 2022 [28 favorites]
This is no longer a political psychopath, this is a mass of people who are commiting these genocidal atrocities, and with glee.
This is genocide. What are we going to do about it? It’s not enough just to have a ruling at The Hague after the fact. This needs to be stopped, now.
posted by corb at 8:08 PM on April 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
This is genocide. What are we going to do about it? It’s not enough just to have a ruling at The Hague after the fact. This needs to be stopped, now.
posted by corb at 8:08 PM on April 2, 2022 [14 favorites]
How?
posted by doggod at 8:11 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by doggod at 8:11 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
How? Ukraine doesn’t belong to Russia. NATO forces are being invited in to the sovereign territory of Ukraine. NATO on Ukrainian soil isn’t an existential threat to Russia. Make it clear to the Russians that we don’t want their, to quote Trump, shithole country. And sanction all Russian oil and exports.
posted by karst at 8:15 PM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by karst at 8:15 PM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
Nothing in NATO rules prevents member states from sending an expedition into Ukraine (if invited). An attack on those soldiers is not an Article V matter.
posted by ocschwar at 8:26 PM on April 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 8:26 PM on April 2, 2022 [8 favorites]
Nothing in NATO rules prevents member states from sending an expedition into Ukraine (if invited). An attack on those soldiers is not an Article V matter.
This has been gone over too many times already in these threads. Nuclear states with an ounce of sense won't risk direct conflict with another nuclear state and non-nuclear states risk one-sided scalation.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:04 PM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
This has been gone over too many times already in these threads. Nuclear states with an ounce of sense won't risk direct conflict with another nuclear state and non-nuclear states risk one-sided scalation.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:04 PM on April 2, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russia shifting focus to show a victory by early May in eastern Ukraine, US officials say [CNN Lite]
US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is focused on May 9, Russia's "Victory Day," [...] a prominent holiday on the Russian calendar, a day the country marks the Nazi surrender in World War II with a huge parade of troops and weaponry across Red Square in front of the Kremlin.posted by glonous keming at 9:10 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
[...]
"Putin will have a victory parade on 9th May regardless the status of the war or peace talks," a European defense official said.
[...]
Putin is now preparing for the first time to name an overall commander of the war to try to achieve greater Russian successes, two of the US officials said. The US belief is Putin will likely name a general who has been in the south because that is a place where the Russians have succeeded in their objectives.
Sensible states don’t direct their soldiers to shell nuclear power stations. Sensible states don’t dig trenches and set fire to the Red Forest. A sensible state wouldn’t invade a country 1/4 its population with an army of 150,000 soldiers and supplies for 3 days using a plan that could only succeed with the total element of surprise when it was clear they didn’t have it.
posted by interogative mood at 9:23 PM on April 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:23 PM on April 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Wyborcza is reporting that US officials warned Ukrainians in January that an aerial invasion Hostomel airport would be the first strike (apparently WSJ article about it but paywall). It does sound like US intelligence directly helped Ukrainians concentrate forces in exactly the right places to stop the original Russian plan.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:59 PM on April 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:59 PM on April 2, 2022 [12 favorites]
"The Kyiv Independent
Human Rights Watch: Evidence of war crimes in Bucha.
The rights group said it interviewed a woman in Bucha who witnessed Russian troops round up five men and shoot one of them in the back of the head, killing him, the Wall Street Journal reports."
12:26 AM · Apr 3, 2022
posted by clavdivs at 10:04 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Human Rights Watch: Evidence of war crimes in Bucha.
The rights group said it interviewed a woman in Bucha who witnessed Russian troops round up five men and shoot one of them in the back of the head, killing him, the Wall Street Journal reports."
12:26 AM · Apr 3, 2022
posted by clavdivs at 10:04 PM on April 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
I thought this take balanced what we know from Bucha and Russian pattern of war tactics and potential counter responses:
Jack Watling:
On Bucha: after my last meeting in Ukraine I was walking to the car when a senior Ukrainian security official, flanked by two General Officers grabbed my arm and said "by the way; the Russians have moved a unit onto the Belarusian axis who will lead the killings." 1/4.
Anyone saying that Bucha is the result of brutalisation or rogue behaviour is wrong. This was the plan. It was pre-meditated. It is consistent with Russian methods in Chechnya. And if the Russian military had been more successful there would have been many more towns like it. 2/4
This context - in which the Ukrainians knew that there were troops preparing to perpetrate acts like this, with the Kremlin describing Ukrainian identity as an accident of history - also explains why Ukrainian resistence has been so fierce. They see the stakes as existential. 3/4
People calling for a specific response to Bucha are taking an atrocity out of its context. The response should be to ensure that Ukrainians can defeat the invasion through steady and systemic assistance. The volume and speed of kit delivered matters. 4/4
posted by cendawanita at 11:05 PM on April 2, 2022 [41 favorites]
Jack Watling:
On Bucha: after my last meeting in Ukraine I was walking to the car when a senior Ukrainian security official, flanked by two General Officers grabbed my arm and said "by the way; the Russians have moved a unit onto the Belarusian axis who will lead the killings." 1/4.
Anyone saying that Bucha is the result of brutalisation or rogue behaviour is wrong. This was the plan. It was pre-meditated. It is consistent with Russian methods in Chechnya. And if the Russian military had been more successful there would have been many more towns like it. 2/4
This context - in which the Ukrainians knew that there were troops preparing to perpetrate acts like this, with the Kremlin describing Ukrainian identity as an accident of history - also explains why Ukrainian resistence has been so fierce. They see the stakes as existential. 3/4
People calling for a specific response to Bucha are taking an atrocity out of its context. The response should be to ensure that Ukrainians can defeat the invasion through steady and systemic assistance. The volume and speed of kit delivered matters. 4/4
posted by cendawanita at 11:05 PM on April 2, 2022 [41 favorites]
Wow...
Deep breaths everyone.
Just unimaginable that someone would order someone to do these things. Fucking people...
Deep breaths. Deep breaths...
posted by Windopaene at 12:26 AM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Deep breaths everyone.
Just unimaginable that someone would order someone to do these things. Fucking people...
Deep breaths. Deep breaths...
posted by Windopaene at 12:26 AM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Just unimaginable that someone would order someone to do these things
It's all over even recent history, and one of its precursors is one group of people considering another, and less powerful group, Untermenschen.
You don't even have to go back to WW2 (Nazi Germany, Japan), 1930's USSR or 1900's British India among several others, more recently there's Cambodia, Rwanda, Yugoslavia, Somalia, Sudan, Uyghur and still more.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:52 AM on April 3, 2022 [15 favorites]
It's all over even recent history, and one of its precursors is one group of people considering another, and less powerful group, Untermenschen.
You don't even have to go back to WW2 (Nazi Germany, Japan), 1930's USSR or 1900's British India among several others, more recently there's Cambodia, Rwanda, Yugoslavia, Somalia, Sudan, Uyghur and still more.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:52 AM on April 3, 2022 [15 favorites]
Honestly, this is exactly what Soviet troops did to both Polish and German civilians in current Polish territory while "liberating" us in WWII. The murders, the looting, the rapes. I guess the only difference is that smart watches aren't popular enough in Ukraine to recreate the famous photos of Soviet soldiers wearing half a dozen watches at once.
There's a reason we took down the monuments to "liberators" as soon as we were actually free after 1989.
(Rose, the 2011 Smarzowski movie, is on Netflix. It took that long to explore women's war trauma. Great, but harrowing and all the trigger warnings.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:04 AM on April 3, 2022 [41 favorites]
There's a reason we took down the monuments to "liberators" as soon as we were actually free after 1989.
(Rose, the 2011 Smarzowski movie, is on Netflix. It took that long to explore women's war trauma. Great, but harrowing and all the trigger warnings.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:04 AM on April 3, 2022 [41 favorites]
People calling for a specific response to Bucha are taking an atrocity out of its context. The response should be to ensure that Ukrainians can defeat the invasion through steady and systemic assistance. The volume and speed of kit delivered matters.
The response should also be to not let this shit be forgotten until people responsible have faced charges. Help Ukraine win the war, yes. But don't forget the crimes, the courts at Hague will still be there next year, in five years, in fifty.
posted by Dysk at 2:12 AM on April 3, 2022 [20 favorites]
The response should also be to not let this shit be forgotten until people responsible have faced charges. Help Ukraine win the war, yes. But don't forget the crimes, the courts at Hague will still be there next year, in five years, in fifty.
posted by Dysk at 2:12 AM on April 3, 2022 [20 favorites]
There is a link somewhere in one of these threads about the people who are documenting the war crimes.
But for now I think I just need to mourn the dead, who were completely innocent people.
.
posted by mumimor at 2:38 AM on April 3, 2022 [24 favorites]
But for now I think I just need to mourn the dead, who were completely innocent people.
.
posted by mumimor at 2:38 AM on April 3, 2022 [24 favorites]
This is the point where Western governments can make a specific intervention that does not involve direct confrontation with Russia.
There is a desperate need to document the atrocities in Ukraine, and the sooner it is done, the better. Forensic investigation of war crimes and genocide in the former Yugoslavia often took place months or years after the event. Here there is the opportunity to record these crime scenes in their fresh state, and to identify remains before decay or the natural importance of recovering and burying bodies makes this difficult compromises the chain of evidence.
Western governments should announce the immediate deployment of specialist teams of forensic investigators, including scene-of-crime officers, forensic anthropologists and experts in disaster victim identification. Given the security threat in areas recently liberated from Russian control, such teams will need to be provided with suitable protection, including armoured transport and armed security. The states contributing such forensics teams and their protective forces should make it absolutely clear to Russia that they are not there to engage in any offensive operations, but will have the right to defend themselves if attacked.
In fact, the US, UK and France should seek emergency UNSC authorisation for a UN-badged forensic investigation mission to Ukraine. Putin then has the dilemma of accepting this - in which case any Russian attack on it would be an unprecedented attack by a UNSC permanent member on a UN force - or (more likely) vetoing it, at which point Russia proves the need for the investigation it is manifestly trying to obstruct.
posted by Major Clanger at 3:25 AM on April 3, 2022 [40 favorites]
There is a desperate need to document the atrocities in Ukraine, and the sooner it is done, the better. Forensic investigation of war crimes and genocide in the former Yugoslavia often took place months or years after the event. Here there is the opportunity to record these crime scenes in their fresh state, and to identify remains before decay or the natural importance of recovering and burying bodies makes this difficult compromises the chain of evidence.
Western governments should announce the immediate deployment of specialist teams of forensic investigators, including scene-of-crime officers, forensic anthropologists and experts in disaster victim identification. Given the security threat in areas recently liberated from Russian control, such teams will need to be provided with suitable protection, including armoured transport and armed security. The states contributing such forensics teams and their protective forces should make it absolutely clear to Russia that they are not there to engage in any offensive operations, but will have the right to defend themselves if attacked.
In fact, the US, UK and France should seek emergency UNSC authorisation for a UN-badged forensic investigation mission to Ukraine. Putin then has the dilemma of accepting this - in which case any Russian attack on it would be an unprecedented attack by a UNSC permanent member on a UN force - or (more likely) vetoing it, at which point Russia proves the need for the investigation it is manifestly trying to obstruct.
posted by Major Clanger at 3:25 AM on April 3, 2022 [40 favorites]
Ukraine May Mark a Turning Point in Documenting War Crimes, Justin Hendrix, Just Security, March 28, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 3:35 AM on April 3, 2022 [20 favorites]
Last week, the United States government announced its formal determination that Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the assessment was made on the basis of a “careful review” of public and intelligence sources. “We are committed to pursuing accountability using every tool available, including criminal prosecutions,” his statement read.Details in the article.
Accountability, though, requires evidence. The collection and preservation of digital media and other evidentiary material in Ukraine is a massive undertaking. It is being met by brave Ukrainian officials and local civil society groups operating in besieged cities and towns, as well as by an international coalition of human rights, open source intelligence and digital forensics researchers. This loose coalition is drawing strength from relationships formed with one another and lessons learned while investigating past conflicts, including in Syria, Yemen, Myanmar and elsewhere.
The ongoing effort in Ukraine, then, can be seen as part of an evolution – or a maturation – of an expanding community of volunteers and professionals gathering user-generated evidence and open source intelligence. It may also represent a crucial test of whether the evidence produced by these methods can play a substantial role in securing convictions.
What follows is a snapshot of the effort in progress…
posted by cenoxo at 3:35 AM on April 3, 2022 [20 favorites]
Putin then has the dilemma of accepting this - in which case any Russian attack on it would be an unprecedented attack by a UNSC permanent member on a UN force - or (more likely) vetoing it, at which point Russia proves the need for the investigation it is manifestly trying to obstruct.
I think part of why this won't happen is because the UN knows that it will just show again that it is useless after the veto. I mean we can't even get a lobbed shoe at Nebenzya to appease.
posted by WeekendJen at 3:52 AM on April 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think part of why this won't happen is because the UN knows that it will just show again that it is useless after the veto. I mean we can't even get a lobbed shoe at Nebenzya to appease.
posted by WeekendJen at 3:52 AM on April 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
"Suddenly, He Started To Behave in a Very, Very Decisive Way"
This article came up for me as a "read more" link from the Spiegel article about Trostyanets. It is an interview with Finnish president Sauli Niinistö, from before the war, and there are lots of things I either didn't know or had forgotten in the general fog of war. For instance, Niinistö makes it clear that the sanctions will be devastating for Russia, and he insists Russia must be aware of that. Before the war. We have discussed the European reaction a lot here on the blue, but someone knew in advance that it would be coming, and the Russians should have known.
And then there is this (my bold):
I wondered how the pandemic impacts the Russian army, and found this: The Impact Of The COVID-19 Pandemic On Russian Operations In Ukraine (Forbes) There is a lot in that short article, but I took note of this:
What I am thinking is, regardless of wether the Russians had bad intelligence or no intelligence about Ukraine, and Europe, as the foundation of their decision-making, this war must have seemed very necessary and urgent to Putin since he decided to wage it now rather than wait till the military and military industry could be reconstructed post-COVID. This can be for personal reasons or strategic reasons, I can't know. But it seems worth thinking about.
posted by mumimor at 4:16 AM on April 3, 2022 [27 favorites]
This article came up for me as a "read more" link from the Spiegel article about Trostyanets. It is an interview with Finnish president Sauli Niinistö, from before the war, and there are lots of things I either didn't know or had forgotten in the general fog of war. For instance, Niinistö makes it clear that the sanctions will be devastating for Russia, and he insists Russia must be aware of that. Before the war. We have discussed the European reaction a lot here on the blue, but someone knew in advance that it would be coming, and the Russians should have known.
And then there is this (my bold):
You asked me if Putin has changed. I don't see a change in himself as a leader. But I do see a change in his behavior. Suddenly, he started to behave in a very, very decisive way. I think he saw an opportunity and wanted to use the moment to take everything he had already had in his mind for years. Sometimes, I guess you have to read him even when he doesn't answer.I think Putin either misread what was going on in the talks about European security, or realized this was his last chance.
I wondered how the pandemic impacts the Russian army, and found this: The Impact Of The COVID-19 Pandemic On Russian Operations In Ukraine (Forbes) There is a lot in that short article, but I took note of this:
Perhaps the largest blow from COVID-19 to the Russian military was its impact on its defense industrial base. Prior to the pandemic, the Russian defense industrial base was not very strong, lacking the capabilities and resources necessary to produce military systems at scale. During the pandemic, these issues were further amplified by requirements for shift work and workers getting sick. Moreover, many defense companies shifted their focus to support the COVID-19 response. Even as the pandemic comes to an end, the Russian defense industry is likely still dealing with issues such as increased unemployment and an inability to secure skilled labor.Regardless of everything else, it was incredibly imprudent to start a war with a large country, backed by all the Western powers, on that background. Both here and in the press there are comparisons with the Chechnya invasion. But Chechnya has 1.4 million inhabitants. Ukraine has 41.4 million. (In this context, comparisons with Syria make no sense at all, for a number of reasons).
Even with the right workers, massive supply chain shortages have plagued the global defense industry. For example, steel prices have more than doubled and often requires a significant procurement time. Moreover, the global shortages of semiconductors and other electronic devices would further hinder the Russian defense industry. The inability to secure raw materials would not allow the Russian defense industry’s ability to surge their production to meet wartime needs. The Russian government recently reached outside of its borders to try to procure necessary military equipment from China.
What I am thinking is, regardless of wether the Russians had bad intelligence or no intelligence about Ukraine, and Europe, as the foundation of their decision-making, this war must have seemed very necessary and urgent to Putin since he decided to wage it now rather than wait till the military and military industry could be reconstructed post-COVID. This can be for personal reasons or strategic reasons, I can't know. But it seems worth thinking about.
posted by mumimor at 4:16 AM on April 3, 2022 [27 favorites]
Same, I claim sanctuary. For the first time I can put the stories of my grandparents' generation - and their silences, in context.
The watch obsession also seems to have been everywhere they 'liberated'. This article can be read with Google Translate - it is about the 'davai ceas' issue, which was a cause celebre even at the time. The article is not about the atrocities, but about a vaudeville number a famous actor did on the watch issue specifically, as a euphemistic commentary on the occupation by the Sovjet army. He was found dead two days after the last performance, apparently from overdosing on 20 aspirine.
The lines will probably not be translated well, so here they are:
It was bad with 'was ist das',
But it;s worse with 'davai ceas'.
From the Dnjestr to the Don
Davai ceas, davai palton (trench coat)
Davai house, davai your land,
Harasho, comradeship.
posted by doggod at 4:17 AM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
The watch obsession also seems to have been everywhere they 'liberated'. This article can be read with Google Translate - it is about the 'davai ceas' issue, which was a cause celebre even at the time. The article is not about the atrocities, but about a vaudeville number a famous actor did on the watch issue specifically, as a euphemistic commentary on the occupation by the Sovjet army. He was found dead two days after the last performance, apparently from overdosing on 20 aspirine.
The lines will probably not be translated well, so here they are:
It was bad with 'was ist das',
But it;s worse with 'davai ceas'.
From the Dnjestr to the Don
Davai ceas, davai palton (trench coat)
Davai house, davai your land,
Harasho, comradeship.
posted by doggod at 4:17 AM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
In “we didn’t think this through” news, dozens of Ukrainian refugees had to be swiftly relocated from temporary accommodation near the Keflavík airport in Iceland because the airport is now the staging ground for the annual Northern Viking military exercise, and fighter jets were regularly flying over the hotel were the refugees were staying, terrifying the kids.
Well over five hundred Ukrainian refugees have made it to Iceland, and authorities are frantically finding places for them to live, and jobs for the adults and school placement for the kids. There are lots of people offering help, often on an ad hoc basis, organizing through neighborhood groups on Facebook. There’s also a large Polish community in Iceland, who’ve been heavily engaged as well.
But this is an unprecedented influx of refugees, in terms of how many have arrived at one time in Iceland, so there have been some fairly boneheaded mistakes, though largely they’ve been of the easily fixed variety, such as relocating war refugees away from a goddamn military exercise.
posted by Kattullus at 6:29 AM on April 3, 2022 [12 favorites]
Well over five hundred Ukrainian refugees have made it to Iceland, and authorities are frantically finding places for them to live, and jobs for the adults and school placement for the kids. There are lots of people offering help, often on an ad hoc basis, organizing through neighborhood groups on Facebook. There’s also a large Polish community in Iceland, who’ve been heavily engaged as well.
But this is an unprecedented influx of refugees, in terms of how many have arrived at one time in Iceland, so there have been some fairly boneheaded mistakes, though largely they’ve been of the easily fixed variety, such as relocating war refugees away from a goddamn military exercise.
posted by Kattullus at 6:29 AM on April 3, 2022 [12 favorites]
The meaning of "davai" is something like "goodbye, farewell" or "it's gone" here? Searching shows me it's a deviously flexible word.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:31 AM on April 3, 2022
posted by Stoneshop at 6:31 AM on April 3, 2022
Davai means give (imperative, informal, second person singular) in Russian and I think it's similar in most Slavic languages. So davai chas means give me the watch.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:35 AM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:35 AM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
Condensed Tweets from Isobel Koshiw Guardian correspondent in Kyiv
The pictures from Bucha, Kyiv oblast confirm reams of eyewitness reports. Unfortunately, we're hearing almost identical descriptions from dozens of places under Russian occupation or seige.
It's the same pattern, or rather tactic, (some of which they used in Syria). First comes the civilian infrastructure - cut off gas, water electricity.
Then even those who find ways to charge their phones don't have signal - the Ukrainians are convinced they are using jamming devices and targeting telecoms masts. I heard reports that in Mariupol they targeted Kyiv Star's infrastructure.
These people then try to survive on whatever supplies they have and if they are lucky, in a village, they have access to a well for water. If they are unlucky, like in Mariupol, they drink water from their radiators.
They then sit terrified in cellars or basements or in their corridors and hope they aren't hit. When I met people coming out of Irpin, they'd be essentially locked up, in the dark, for over two weeks. They saw my press vest and cried out to me to tell them the news.
How Russia is using tactics from the Syrian playbook in Ukraine.
posted by adamvasco at 6:47 AM on April 3, 2022 [21 favorites]
The pictures from Bucha, Kyiv oblast confirm reams of eyewitness reports. Unfortunately, we're hearing almost identical descriptions from dozens of places under Russian occupation or seige.
It's the same pattern, or rather tactic, (some of which they used in Syria). First comes the civilian infrastructure - cut off gas, water electricity.
Then even those who find ways to charge their phones don't have signal - the Ukrainians are convinced they are using jamming devices and targeting telecoms masts. I heard reports that in Mariupol they targeted Kyiv Star's infrastructure.
These people then try to survive on whatever supplies they have and if they are lucky, in a village, they have access to a well for water. If they are unlucky, like in Mariupol, they drink water from their radiators.
They then sit terrified in cellars or basements or in their corridors and hope they aren't hit. When I met people coming out of Irpin, they'd be essentially locked up, in the dark, for over two weeks. They saw my press vest and cried out to me to tell them the news.
How Russia is using tactics from the Syrian playbook in Ukraine.
posted by adamvasco at 6:47 AM on April 3, 2022 [21 favorites]
(And having to spell out just how iconic the Soviet army stealing watches, to the point the very words are emblematic, gives me all the warm fuzzies of shared Eastern European trauma bonding. Romanians aren't even Slavic, hence doggod spelling it ceas, I'd write czas, and yet three to four generations later we get each other perfectly.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:08 AM on April 3, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 7:08 AM on April 3, 2022 [20 favorites]
and yet three to four generations later we get each other perfectly
And a good reminder that what is going on now won't be over when it "ends". The Russians are inflicting trauma on innocents that will be passed on for generations. No one can undo that now. The idiocy.
posted by mumimor at 7:22 AM on April 3, 2022 [17 favorites]
And a good reminder that what is going on now won't be over when it "ends". The Russians are inflicting trauma on innocents that will be passed on for generations. No one can undo that now. The idiocy.
posted by mumimor at 7:22 AM on April 3, 2022 [17 favorites]
Over 500 Companies Have Withdrawn from Russia—But Some Remain, Yale School of Management, April 3, 2022:
posted by cenoxo at 7:26 AM on April 3, 2022 [17 favorites]
Since the invasion of Ukraine began, over 500 companies have announced their withdrawal from Russia—but some companies have continued to operate in Russia undeterred.More details and related links in the article.
Originally a simple "withdraw" vs. "remain" list, our list of companies now consists of five categories - graded on a scale of A-F for the completeness of withdrawal.
The [searchable “Yale CELI List of Companies”] list below is updated continuously by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his team of experts, research fellows, and students at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute to reflect new announcements from companies in as close to real time as possible.
…
An expanded version of the list below can be downloaded [as an Excel .XLSX file] by clicking here. The downloadable list contains detailed information about company statements, exposure to Russia, stock ticker, CUSIP and country identification. (Make sure to "download" the file from Box as an Excel document rather than "previewing" for best file quality.)…
posted by cenoxo at 7:26 AM on April 3, 2022 [17 favorites]
Business Insider: Images show thick plumes of smoke over Odesa as Russian sea and air missiles strike Ukraine's most important port city
The Russian defense ministry confirmed that it targeted oil facilities that Ukraine was using to supply its troops blocking Russia's advance from the east.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:31 AM on April 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
"This morning, high-precision sea and air-based missiles destroyed an oil refinery and three storage facilities for fuel and lubricants near Odesa, from which fuel was supplied to a group of Ukrainian troops in the direction of Mykolaiv," it said, according to AFP.
They are also going to be building up in the slice of Moldova they occupy; just to keep some of Ukraine’s forces pinned down.
I was wondering about the opposite scenario; how could Russia resupply or reinforce Transnistria under current conditions?
On March 16, the Council of Europe recognized it as 'Russian Occupied Territory.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:26 AM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
I was wondering about the opposite scenario; how could Russia resupply or reinforce Transnistria under current conditions?
On March 16, the Council of Europe recognized it as 'Russian Occupied Territory.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:26 AM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Guardian: Red is dead: Russian anti-war protesters fly a new flag for peace
So Katonina and their friends came up with a solution: a white, blue and white striped flag. “It is as if someone threw white paint over the red, over the bloodshed that is going on,” Katonina said.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:52 AM on April 3, 2022 [15 favorites]
But they were not the only ones to have the idea – it was soon seen at other protests around the world. “It was funny to see that at the very same time, other Russians opposing the war were putting forward the very same flag. Some unconscious collaboration was going on,” they said.
The flag was originally used in Veliky Novgorod, one of the oldest cities in Russia and known as the cradle of national democracy – its citizens were full participants in representative rule as early as the 12th century.
“The Veliky Novgorod symbolism was important to us. It was as democratic as a place could be in the 12th century,” Katonina said.
Igor Eysmont, a lawyer from Bucha recounted his ordeal to a reporter from Wyborcza, and it turns out that "davai chas" is still the watchword of the Russian army - as he and his family escaped by private car on March 9 after two weeks in an underground shelter, a Russian soldier at a checkpoint demanded his watch. Thankfully the soldier accepted the explanation that he didn't put it on while evacuating.
Other interesting bits from the interview: some Belarusian special forces were also present in Bucha, in vehicles marked with a 0. Most killings were of people who tried to cross streets or were found alone / in small groups by soldiers, with Chechens rumoured to have raped and hanged a group of girls. The bomb shelter he was in hosted a hundred people, with no sanitation, water or food - men sometimes climbed up to get food from their apartments or boil water from snow and rain over a fire. He finally dared to get his car and join a tiny evacuation convoy - at least twice he thinks he got through because soldiers took pity on his five year old. At the last checkpoint soldiers started screaming at them and he just drove off - two cars behind them, a family got shot dead.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:08 AM on April 3, 2022 [16 favorites]
Other interesting bits from the interview: some Belarusian special forces were also present in Bucha, in vehicles marked with a 0. Most killings were of people who tried to cross streets or were found alone / in small groups by soldiers, with Chechens rumoured to have raped and hanged a group of girls. The bomb shelter he was in hosted a hundred people, with no sanitation, water or food - men sometimes climbed up to get food from their apartments or boil water from snow and rain over a fire. He finally dared to get his car and join a tiny evacuation convoy - at least twice he thinks he got through because soldiers took pity on his five year old. At the last checkpoint soldiers started screaming at them and he just drove off - two cars behind them, a family got shot dead.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:08 AM on April 3, 2022 [16 favorites]
We should be speeding up deals to get more air defenses into Ukraine.
Slovakia has S-300's to give, but needs Patriots to replace them. We should get them those Patriots immediately.
Similarly, we might be able to get Turkey to supply S-400's to Ukraine by sweetening the pot with a deal on Patriots and F-35's. That would be a win-win situation for us.
A little upthread ChurchHatesTucker posted a twitter thread from the Ukrainian Air Force asking for air defenses including more S-300's, Patriots, Norwegian NASAMS, among other requests.
I'm surprised they even have to ask for these things at this point. I'm going to be composing a ResistBot message to my reps and the White House, which I'll post in a little bit.
posted by Reverend John at 10:09 AM on April 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Slovakia has S-300's to give, but needs Patriots to replace them. We should get them those Patriots immediately.
Similarly, we might be able to get Turkey to supply S-400's to Ukraine by sweetening the pot with a deal on Patriots and F-35's. That would be a win-win situation for us.
A little upthread ChurchHatesTucker posted a twitter thread from the Ukrainian Air Force asking for air defenses including more S-300's, Patriots, Norwegian NASAMS, among other requests.
I'm surprised they even have to ask for these things at this point. I'm going to be composing a ResistBot message to my reps and the White House, which I'll post in a little bit.
posted by Reverend John at 10:09 AM on April 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Turkey Says No Deal on S-400 for Ukraine
Erdogan’s communications chief: Deliver Turkey the F-35 and Patriot without preconditions.
Greece, Bulgaria and Slovakia operate S-300s (and would like to replace them with Patriots), I'm not sure if some of theirs have already been contributed.
There are valid reasons not to trust Turkey with F-35s. It's for Erdogan to address his cozying up to Putin; not for NATO to win Turkey back over. Compromising the security of an expensively (!!!) developed platform NATO forces are going to be relying on to maintain the technological edge for some time to come is not worth a handful of S-400s.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:23 AM on April 3, 2022 [15 favorites]
Erdogan’s communications chief: Deliver Turkey the F-35 and Patriot without preconditions.
Greece, Bulgaria and Slovakia operate S-300s (and would like to replace them with Patriots), I'm not sure if some of theirs have already been contributed.
There are valid reasons not to trust Turkey with F-35s. It's for Erdogan to address his cozying up to Putin; not for NATO to win Turkey back over. Compromising the security of an expensively (!!!) developed platform NATO forces are going to be relying on to maintain the technological edge for some time to come is not worth a handful of S-400s.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:23 AM on April 3, 2022 [15 favorites]
Just seen the images from Bucha. I imagine such things are ongoing in other occupied areas.
Escalate. Draw the line at the border. Why the fuck do you spend a trillion dollars on defense if not for this? Not for healthcare, not for education, not for welfare, all that money is FOR THIS. FUCKING USE IT!!!
posted by adept256 at 11:23 AM on April 3, 2022 [21 favorites]
Escalate. Draw the line at the border. Why the fuck do you spend a trillion dollars on defense if not for this? Not for healthcare, not for education, not for welfare, all that money is FOR THIS. FUCKING USE IT!!!
posted by adept256 at 11:23 AM on April 3, 2022 [21 favorites]
The President has probably asked his national security team to give him a range of options. I doubt that the US and its allies will let this go unanswered. There are many options and it’s really not worth it to armchair general this situation or get into specific weapons systems.
posted by interogative mood at 11:55 AM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:55 AM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
"I think he saw an opportunity and wanted to use the moment to take everything he had already had in his mind for years. Sometimes, I guess you have to read him even when he doesn't answer."
"[Putin] realized this was his last chance."
I think there's a lot to this, and not long before the invasion I had been reading a bunch about the ends of empires, and how (some scholars contend) the most dangerous moment (for the rest of the world) is not when an empire is strong and self-confident, but when an empire sees its dominance slipping away and grabs at its last chance, or when an almost-empire realizes it won't achieve its imperial goals. The context of a lot of what I was reading was, "How much does the risk of war with China rise as China realizes this is probably the peak of its military and economic power, and it should take its chance while it can? And what should Western diplomacy look like in light of these possibilities/with the lessons of historical empires (including their own)?"
I think a lot of Russia's international posture in recent years is best understood as a fallen empire grasping at the straws remaining to it (huge quantity of UN security council vetos, for example). And I suspect Putin, being old, is thinking not just about the fallen Soviet empire, but about his personal legacy. He sees his last, best chance to retain some of Russia's traditional power, to secure his personal legacy, to make real his beliefs about what "Russia" is (pan-slavic, and only Slavic). Would he have been better off invading while Trump was president? Maybe. Maybe the Biden administration's turn towards China tipped the thing; maybe Putin believed Trump would win a second term; maybe Putin's health forced the issue. Maybe it was the departure of Merkel (I tend to think this mattered a lot); maybe he thought the progress of the Covid epidemic gave him his moment.
But I do think this is the death throes of an empire, and of its aging dictator. And I think one of the most interesting questions that I'm sure diplomats and analysts are working on it, "What does China see when it looks at this?" I sure hope that what they see is, "Touchy semi-cooperative diplomatic relationships with the West is a lot better than territorial expansion and open conflict." (I also hope what a lot of the West is taking from this is "having to suddenly re-internalize all of your industrial production is a catastrophe in an interconnected world, so we need to do a lot more security planning about that instead of just counting on the power of capitalism to ensure we continue to have access to China's industrial output." In case Covid supply-chain problems hadn't already highlighted those issues.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 12:17 PM on April 3, 2022 [47 favorites]
"[Putin] realized this was his last chance."
I think there's a lot to this, and not long before the invasion I had been reading a bunch about the ends of empires, and how (some scholars contend) the most dangerous moment (for the rest of the world) is not when an empire is strong and self-confident, but when an empire sees its dominance slipping away and grabs at its last chance, or when an almost-empire realizes it won't achieve its imperial goals. The context of a lot of what I was reading was, "How much does the risk of war with China rise as China realizes this is probably the peak of its military and economic power, and it should take its chance while it can? And what should Western diplomacy look like in light of these possibilities/with the lessons of historical empires (including their own)?"
I think a lot of Russia's international posture in recent years is best understood as a fallen empire grasping at the straws remaining to it (huge quantity of UN security council vetos, for example). And I suspect Putin, being old, is thinking not just about the fallen Soviet empire, but about his personal legacy. He sees his last, best chance to retain some of Russia's traditional power, to secure his personal legacy, to make real his beliefs about what "Russia" is (pan-slavic, and only Slavic). Would he have been better off invading while Trump was president? Maybe. Maybe the Biden administration's turn towards China tipped the thing; maybe Putin believed Trump would win a second term; maybe Putin's health forced the issue. Maybe it was the departure of Merkel (I tend to think this mattered a lot); maybe he thought the progress of the Covid epidemic gave him his moment.
But I do think this is the death throes of an empire, and of its aging dictator. And I think one of the most interesting questions that I'm sure diplomats and analysts are working on it, "What does China see when it looks at this?" I sure hope that what they see is, "Touchy semi-cooperative diplomatic relationships with the West is a lot better than territorial expansion and open conflict." (I also hope what a lot of the West is taking from this is "having to suddenly re-internalize all of your industrial production is a catastrophe in an interconnected world, so we need to do a lot more security planning about that instead of just counting on the power of capitalism to ensure we continue to have access to China's industrial output." In case Covid supply-chain problems hadn't already highlighted those issues.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 12:17 PM on April 3, 2022 [47 favorites]
But I do think this is the death throes of an empire, and of its aging dictator.
I agree; I worry most about how much collateral damage those death throes will cause.
(I also hope what a lot of the West is taking from this is "having to suddenly re-internalize all of your industrial production is a catastrophe in an interconnected world,
A not insignificant factor in Ukraine's ability to resist the invasion is that they have a robust domestic arms industry. Twitter and Reddit are full of videos of Russian tanks being blown up by Ukrainian-designed and -built Stugna-P missiles, for example. There have been articles (some linked in this thread, I think) about how Russia's own arms production is dependent on imported parts from Ukraine, creating a self-inflicted vulnerability.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:42 PM on April 3, 2022 [10 favorites]
I agree; I worry most about how much collateral damage those death throes will cause.
(I also hope what a lot of the West is taking from this is "having to suddenly re-internalize all of your industrial production is a catastrophe in an interconnected world,
A not insignificant factor in Ukraine's ability to resist the invasion is that they have a robust domestic arms industry. Twitter and Reddit are full of videos of Russian tanks being blown up by Ukrainian-designed and -built Stugna-P missiles, for example. There have been articles (some linked in this thread, I think) about how Russia's own arms production is dependent on imported parts from Ukraine, creating a self-inflicted vulnerability.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:42 PM on April 3, 2022 [10 favorites]
In the photo I saw of a murdered cyclist, you cannot see the cyclist's face. I have fallen while on my bike. It looks like this person just needs help getting up. My brain both understands what has happened and also refuses to parse it. So odd.
(some scholars contend) the most dangerous moment (for the rest of the world) is not when an empire is strong and self-confident, but when an empire sees its dominance slipping away
Like when an abused person tries to leave their abuser, right? I am sad, of course, but also fucking furious. Good thing I am not in charge because I absolutely have no idea how to stop Putin but for heaven's sake, let's keep giving Ukraine all the weapons possible.
According to Kevin Rothrock on Twitter, "Moscow is demanding an emergency session of the UN Security Council tomorrow to discuss “Ukrainian radicals’ provocation” in Bucha (the town outside Kyiv where Russian troops slaughtered hundreds of civilians but deny it)."
Photographer and documentary filmmaker Maksim Levin is the sixth journalist to die in this war. The Guardian has a gallery of his work from Ukraine.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:28 PM on April 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
(some scholars contend) the most dangerous moment (for the rest of the world) is not when an empire is strong and self-confident, but when an empire sees its dominance slipping away
Like when an abused person tries to leave their abuser, right? I am sad, of course, but also fucking furious. Good thing I am not in charge because I absolutely have no idea how to stop Putin but for heaven's sake, let's keep giving Ukraine all the weapons possible.
According to Kevin Rothrock on Twitter, "Moscow is demanding an emergency session of the UN Security Council tomorrow to discuss “Ukrainian radicals’ provocation” in Bucha (the town outside Kyiv where Russian troops slaughtered hundreds of civilians but deny it)."
Photographer and documentary filmmaker Maksim Levin is the sixth journalist to die in this war. The Guardian has a gallery of his work from Ukraine.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:28 PM on April 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
I guess many of you have seen those photos by now. Sucks. Did you know Ukraine exports sunflower oil? Sure makes a pretty flag.
posted by adept256 at 1:31 PM on April 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 1:31 PM on April 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
Moscow is demanding an emergency session of the UN Security Council tomorrow to discuss “Ukrainian radicals’ provocation” in Bucha
Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?
posted by corb at 1:34 PM on April 3, 2022 [25 favorites]
Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?
posted by corb at 1:34 PM on April 3, 2022 [25 favorites]
I think a lot of Russia's international posture in recent years is best understood as a fallen empire grasping at the straws remaining to it
Agree and I think the instigating factor here was Ukraine's ambition to become an energy producing competitor to Russia. Doing nothing was to watch Russia slowly lose one of the only things it has left. So if it's do something, the conditions aren't getting any better by waiting.
As it turns out, the sorry state of the military could have benefited by a little waiting and preparing. I don't think Putin knew the true INcapability of the military. I also think he thought the West would be incapable of aligning and acting to the extent that happened, with all of his infowar ops and moles in western government neutering the response and creating delays and infighting.
It seems like the sort of rational gamble one makes towards the end of a game of Risk or something. Only this is not at all a game.
posted by ctmf at 1:39 PM on April 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
Agree and I think the instigating factor here was Ukraine's ambition to become an energy producing competitor to Russia. Doing nothing was to watch Russia slowly lose one of the only things it has left. So if it's do something, the conditions aren't getting any better by waiting.
As it turns out, the sorry state of the military could have benefited by a little waiting and preparing. I don't think Putin knew the true INcapability of the military. I also think he thought the West would be incapable of aligning and acting to the extent that happened, with all of his infowar ops and moles in western government neutering the response and creating delays and infighting.
It seems like the sort of rational gamble one makes towards the end of a game of Risk or something. Only this is not at all a game.
posted by ctmf at 1:39 PM on April 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?I wish they could declare Ukraine is actually the successor state to the USSR instead of the Russian Federation, so it would take the seat on the security council instead. It's kind-of been done before when the People's Republic of China (mainland China) took over the Republic of China (Taiwan)'s seat.
posted by borsboom at 1:44 PM on April 3, 2022 [15 favorites]
Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?
There isn't a provisioned mechanism, so near as I know the process would look like one of three paths (not an expert, grain of salt):
1. The Security Council makes an Article 6 recommendation to the General Assembly to remove Russia from the General Assembly, the General Assembly carries it out. (this would have to be done without a veto from Russia)
2. Amend the charter itself to remove Russia, following a 2/3 ratification & ratification by all 5 permanent members. (well, more technically the USSR, since that's what was written in, but if you try touching it based on that, as some have proposed, that opens up "Republic of China" as contended)
3. Dissolve the UN, recreate it? (this one isn't written in, but more a natural outcome)
The permanence of the Security Council was by design, and this is the conclusion of that design.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:45 PM on April 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
There isn't a provisioned mechanism, so near as I know the process would look like one of three paths (not an expert, grain of salt):
1. The Security Council makes an Article 6 recommendation to the General Assembly to remove Russia from the General Assembly, the General Assembly carries it out. (this would have to be done without a veto from Russia)
2. Amend the charter itself to remove Russia, following a 2/3 ratification & ratification by all 5 permanent members. (well, more technically the USSR, since that's what was written in, but if you try touching it based on that, as some have proposed, that opens up "Republic of China" as contended)
3. Dissolve the UN, recreate it? (this one isn't written in, but more a natural outcome)
The permanence of the Security Council was by design, and this is the conclusion of that design.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:45 PM on April 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
"Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?"
A new UN Charter. The price of getting the then-great-powers to sign on to the UN itself was permanent security council seats (and the permanent-member veto along with it, which almost scuttled the entire project).
It's the nature of institutions to freeze in place the assumptions about power and power relationships of the time when they're created (see also: the US Senate). Those assumptions are wickedly difficult to change once they're codified, because members join the group -- and give up some of their freedom -- under the guarantee that their status will be protected. It's basically like The Leviathan, but for nations.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 1:46 PM on April 3, 2022 [10 favorites]
A new UN Charter. The price of getting the then-great-powers to sign on to the UN itself was permanent security council seats (and the permanent-member veto along with it, which almost scuttled the entire project).
It's the nature of institutions to freeze in place the assumptions about power and power relationships of the time when they're created (see also: the US Senate). Those assumptions are wickedly difficult to change once they're codified, because members join the group -- and give up some of their freedom -- under the guarantee that their status will be protected. It's basically like The Leviathan, but for nations.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 1:46 PM on April 3, 2022 [10 favorites]
Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?
There's no mechanism for it in the charter. So practically speaking, unanimity in the rest of the Security Council and at least a majority if not a supermajority in the General Assembly; as you'd basically be re-constituting the UN with a new charter and barring any nation not willing to go along.
You'd also expect a lot of destabilizing horse-trading about who gets to be what in the New UN. Does India get a permanent security council seat? Brazil?
Some other news:
Greek foreign minister leads aid mission to Odesa, reopens consulate.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:49 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
There's no mechanism for it in the charter. So practically speaking, unanimity in the rest of the Security Council and at least a majority if not a supermajority in the General Assembly; as you'd basically be re-constituting the UN with a new charter and barring any nation not willing to go along.
You'd also expect a lot of destabilizing horse-trading about who gets to be what in the New UN. Does India get a permanent security council seat? Brazil?
Some other news:
Greek foreign minister leads aid mission to Odesa, reopens consulate.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:49 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ultimately, the way to kick them out is… to kick them out. Which detracts more from the legitimacy of the institution? Just kicking Russia’s ass out the door and saying the rules are different now? Or continuing to sit and watch and listen to their demented and murderous propaganda clownshow and pretend that they are entitled to their privileged veto power?
posted by notoriety public at 1:51 PM on April 3, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 1:51 PM on April 3, 2022 [7 favorites]
The UN is not a tavern (despite satire).
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:52 PM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:52 PM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
The UN is not a tavern.
Indeed not. Taverns are permitted to kick the drunks and fighters out.
posted by notoriety public at 1:53 PM on April 3, 2022 [11 favorites]
Indeed not. Taverns are permitted to kick the drunks and fighters out.
posted by notoriety public at 1:53 PM on April 3, 2022 [11 favorites]
"Okay, seriously, what would it take to kick them off the Security Council?"
there's no way to do it with the votes that idea would earn - however, at the risk of violating some treaties and opening up a real can of worms, the US could declare their delegation personae non gratae and not allow them in our country
i'm not saying this is a good idea
posted by pyramid termite at 2:04 PM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
there's no way to do it with the votes that idea would earn - however, at the risk of violating some treaties and opening up a real can of worms, the US could declare their delegation personae non gratae and not allow them in our country
i'm not saying this is a good idea
posted by pyramid termite at 2:04 PM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
The problem isn’t Russia’s UN Security Council veto, that is largely a symbolic act. The problem is that the rest of the world lacks consensus on how big of a problem this is and what if anything should be done about it. Regional and global leaders like India, China, Brazil, and South Africa need to be persuaded to take a stand against Russia’s actions here and join in imposing by sanctions and punishing Russia for this war. If we can get that kind of consensus then Russia’s veto doesn’t matter.
posted by interogative mood at 2:12 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:12 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ukraine has argued that the transfer of the security council seat from the USSR to Russia was illegal, so the seat is actually empty:
In 1991, the Alma-Ata Protocol was signed by the majority of Soviet republics, declaring the end of the Soviet Union and agreeing that Russia would take over the USSR’s seat. Russia then wrote to the UN requesting that the name USSR be amended to Russian Federation and that nothing else would change.posted by BungaDunga at 2:36 PM on April 3, 2022 [13 favorites]
International lawyers have questioned the legality of this and have debated whether the dissolution of the USSR should have dissolved its seat at the Security Council. This is what Ukraine is now arguing. The whole matter rested on whether Russia was the “Successor State” or a “Continuing State” under international law.
The majority of UN member states is condemning this war.
However, the majority of the world's population and the majority of the world GNP is in the hands of member states that are not condemning this war.
posted by ocschwar at 2:46 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
However, the majority of the world's population and the majority of the world GNP is in the hands of member states that are not condemning this war.
posted by ocschwar at 2:46 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
There are valid reasons not to trust Turkey with F-35s.
I don't necessarily disagree, but we were willing to sell Turkey the F-35 prior to the S-400 deal, and the S-400 deal itself was in large part a result of Turkey trying and failing to drive a hard bargain on purchasing Patriots.
So it seems to me that if we could get Turkey to send Ukraine their S-400s to shoot down Russian planes and missiles, that would go a long way toward putting some distance between Turkey and Putin's Russia, and be a net win for us.
In any case this seems to be just one example of a chance to help out Ukraine. I'd like to see the US pull out all the stops to get Ukraine the weapons it needs to counter Russian air-power and win on the ground. If the specifics of the Turkish deal are too complex, I'd hope that the Slovakian, Greek, Bulgarian, and Norwegian deals could all be pulled off.
posted by Reverend John at 3:18 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
I don't necessarily disagree, but we were willing to sell Turkey the F-35 prior to the S-400 deal, and the S-400 deal itself was in large part a result of Turkey trying and failing to drive a hard bargain on purchasing Patriots.
So it seems to me that if we could get Turkey to send Ukraine their S-400s to shoot down Russian planes and missiles, that would go a long way toward putting some distance between Turkey and Putin's Russia, and be a net win for us.
In any case this seems to be just one example of a chance to help out Ukraine. I'd like to see the US pull out all the stops to get Ukraine the weapons it needs to counter Russian air-power and win on the ground. If the specifics of the Turkish deal are too complex, I'd hope that the Slovakian, Greek, Bulgarian, and Norwegian deals could all be pulled off.
posted by Reverend John at 3:18 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
However, the majority of the world's population and the majority of the world GNP is in the hands of member states that are not condemning this war.
Population, maybe somewhere around 50%. GNP, not even close to half of the world GNP.
posted by ssg at 3:19 PM on April 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
Population, maybe somewhere around 50%. GNP, not even close to half of the world GNP.
posted by ssg at 3:19 PM on April 3, 2022 [3 favorites]
If anyone wants to send a Resistbot message to their Federal reps, feel free to text SIGN PELSGW to 50409.
Here is the text:
posted by Reverend John at 3:25 PM on April 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Here is the text:
Please support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion.You can also text "SAMPLE" instead of "YES" to the Resistbot response if you'd like to see the sample text before sending it.
Ukraine needs air defense weapons. Help our allies, like Slovakia, Greece, and Bulgaria, who can supply suitable systems like the S-300, by sending them Patriot Missile systems to replace the systems they would send to Ukraine.
Also please try to expedite any other deals to supply Ukraine with air defense systems from Turkey, Norway, and other allies.
posted by Reverend John at 3:25 PM on April 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
And I suspect Putin, being old, is thinking not just about the fallen Soviet empire, but about his personal legacy.Toby Esterhase: You're an old spy in a hurry, George. You used to say they were the worst.
George Smiley: Oh they are, Toby, they are.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 4:05 PM on April 3, 2022 [5 favorites]
Zelensky Administration advisor Tymofiy Mylovanov on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:50 PM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
The war crimes in Brovary and Chernihiv directions might be more heinous that those in Bucha. We have eyewitness accounts through friends, relatives and students. We need help documenting them Journalists and lawyers who can help please contact @ZoyaMylovanov Examples: 1/Examples are text only, but horrific.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:50 PM on April 3, 2022 [9 favorites]
This interview and this interview are insightful, I thought.
posted by ClaireBear at 7:19 PM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ClaireBear at 7:19 PM on April 3, 2022 [2 favorites]
Youtube user Perun has some in-depth analysis of the military strategy and tactics.
e.g.
The use of reservists and irregulars by Ukrainian Army. Why the Russian forces really don't outnumber the Ukrainian forces. How irregulars are being used and their effectiveness. What that farmer hauling away the Russian tank signifies. Where Ukraine could improve in its use of irregulars. The tricky boundary between combatant and non-combatant in this "social media intelligence' war. History and type of military mobilizations and why the two sides are fighting different wars.....
End of the tank? - the use of ATGMs in Ukraine
Drones in Ukraine - Lessons learned. Which would you prefer to have one advanced fighter jet or 14,000 Switchblade drones? The maintenance and operating costs of legacy combat systems (never mind the initial purchase price) is already order of magnitude more expensive than drone systems. Terrifying potential for non-state actors.
posted by storybored at 8:38 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
e.g.
The use of reservists and irregulars by Ukrainian Army. Why the Russian forces really don't outnumber the Ukrainian forces. How irregulars are being used and their effectiveness. What that farmer hauling away the Russian tank signifies. Where Ukraine could improve in its use of irregulars. The tricky boundary between combatant and non-combatant in this "social media intelligence' war. History and type of military mobilizations and why the two sides are fighting different wars.....
End of the tank? - the use of ATGMs in Ukraine
Drones in Ukraine - Lessons learned. Which would you prefer to have one advanced fighter jet or 14,000 Switchblade drones? The maintenance and operating costs of legacy combat systems (never mind the initial purchase price) is already order of magnitude more expensive than drone systems. Terrifying potential for non-state actors.
posted by storybored at 8:38 PM on April 3, 2022 [4 favorites]
Some are now claiming the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade was the unit stationed in Bucha and responsible for the atrocities. Because we live in 2022, people are able to dox soldiers in that unit via their social media presence.
Identifying and publicising war criminals is admirable, but afaics the linked effort is not done by someone with a proven track record in OSINT. I won't weep if the instagram accounts of some Russian soldiers who didn't directly commit war crimes are flooded with abuse, but in the interests of ensuring that everything is as factual as possible, I'd advise waiting for Bellingcat to publish their findings. Trolls love to pick on occasional errors and use them to discredit all accurate reporting on the same topic.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 1:29 AM on April 4, 2022 [20 favorites]
Understanding War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3:
Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe as “lost orcs.” Russian forces had attempted to conduct an orderly retreat from their positions around Kyiv with designated covering forces supported by artillery and mines to allow the main body to withdraw. The main body of Russian troops has withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro and is completing its withdrawal from the east bank, but the retrograde has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian troops were left behind.posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:44 AM on April 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
The war is far from over and could still turn Russia’s way if the Russian military can launch a successful operation in eastern Ukraine. The current line of Russian occupation in southern and eastern Ukraine is still a significant gain in Russian-controlled territory since the start of the war. If a ceasefire or peace agreement freezes a line like the current front-line trace, Russia will be able to exert much greater pressure on Ukraine than it did before the invasion and may over time reassemble a more effective invasion force. Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv is thus significant but not decisive.
@W_Kononczuk: Russian state-owned news agency @rianru published on its front page an ideological article calling for de facto genocide against Ukrainians.
Below is an English-translation of this shameful piece, which should be evidence for future "Nuremberg".
Terrifying.
posted by Kabanos at 4:40 AM on April 4, 2022 [19 favorites]
Below is an English-translation of this shameful piece, which should be evidence for future "Nuremberg".
Terrifying.
posted by Kabanos at 4:40 AM on April 4, 2022 [19 favorites]
brief aside, no derail: every piece of russian and putin propaganda smacks so strongly of the exact same flavor of bullshit that trump used, especially the mirror, the projection. i am internally convinced that they are two edges of the same blade, aligned in fact not just in spirit.
posted by glonous keming at 4:49 AM on April 4, 2022 [25 favorites]
posted by glonous keming at 4:49 AM on April 4, 2022 [25 favorites]
‘This Is True Barbarity’: Life and Death Under Russian Occupation [archive link] by Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Natalia Yermak in the New York Times, with photographs by Tyler Hicks, about life in Trostanyets under occupation. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 5:17 AM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
As the days and weeks went by, food became scarce and any good will from the soldiers vanished, too. Residents boiled snow for water and lived off what they had stored from their small gardens. Russian soldiers, without a proper logistics pipeline, began looting people’s homes, shops and even the local chocolate factory. One butcher spray painted “ALREADY LOOTED” on his shop so the soldiers would not break in. On another store, another deterrence: “EVERYTHING IS TAKEN, NOTHING LEFT.”(There are distressing descriptions in the piece)
By mid-March, the Russian soldiers were rotated out of the town and replaced by separatist fighters who were brought in from the southeast.
It was then, residents said, that atrocities began to mount.
“They were brash and angry,” Dr. Volkova said. “We could not negotiate with them about anything. They would not give us any green corridors, they searched the apartments, took away the phones, abducted people — they took them away, mostly young men, and we still don’t know where these people are.”
posted by Kattullus at 5:17 AM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
Below is an English-translation of this shameful piece, which should be evidence for future "Nuremberg".
I'm only half through this shocking, abhorrent text. It is a stark reminder that we can do anything with words, and that there is no moral or ethics in text. Something like this almost makes speech meaningless.
But it stands on the shoulders of decades of post-modern theory and also the management language many of us see in our in-boxes every week, at least.
posted by mumimor at 5:19 AM on April 4, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm only half through this shocking, abhorrent text. It is a stark reminder that we can do anything with words, and that there is no moral or ethics in text. Something like this almost makes speech meaningless.
But it stands on the shoulders of decades of post-modern theory and also the management language many of us see in our in-boxes every week, at least.
posted by mumimor at 5:19 AM on April 4, 2022 [9 favorites]
Forced displacement.
Hundreds of Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia, say Mariupol women
Troops ordered women and children on to buses and sent them to ‘filtration camps’, according to witness accounts.
Russian officials have previously said 420,000 people have been voluntarily evacuated to Russia “from dangerous regions of Ukraine and the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics”
posted by adamvasco at 5:44 AM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
Hundreds of Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia, say Mariupol women
Troops ordered women and children on to buses and sent them to ‘filtration camps’, according to witness accounts.
Russian officials have previously said 420,000 people have been voluntarily evacuated to Russia “from dangerous regions of Ukraine and the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics”
posted by adamvasco at 5:44 AM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
Western governments should be pressured to comment on the deportation; it's not plausible given the level of battlefield intelligence we've seen that moving nearly half a million people to camps somewhere went unobserved.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:22 AM on April 4, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:22 AM on April 4, 2022 [11 favorites]
Got questions about why I think it is genocide. Until this morning I resisted applying the term. War crimes? Sure. Heinous rhetoric? You bet. What changed is the combination of more and more evidence, from different places, and even more importantly, explicit official rhetoric. ...I know Russian. I have read a lot of Russian nationalist rhetoric in my life. This is not some wild intellectual fantasy, it is a clear, actionable statement of intent by a state agency. The UN definition is problematic, but in this case it fits like a glove
Excerpt from thread by scholar Eugene Finkel, political scientist and historian at Johns Hopkins University. (Twitter here; Thread Reader here) on why he now agrees that the war in Ukraine is genocide.
The US is pushing to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, according to Reuters.
A two-thirds majority vote by the 193-member assembly in New York can suspend a state from the council for persistently committing gross and systematic violations of human rights.
Speaking in Bucharest on Monday, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: "Russia's participation on the Human Rights Council is a farce. "And it is wrong, which is why we believe it is time the UN General Assembly vote to remove them."
posted by Bella Donna at 6:48 AM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
Excerpt from thread by scholar Eugene Finkel, political scientist and historian at Johns Hopkins University. (Twitter here; Thread Reader here) on why he now agrees that the war in Ukraine is genocide.
The US is pushing to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, according to Reuters.
A two-thirds majority vote by the 193-member assembly in New York can suspend a state from the council for persistently committing gross and systematic violations of human rights.
Speaking in Bucharest on Monday, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: "Russia's participation on the Human Rights Council is a farce. "And it is wrong, which is why we believe it is time the UN General Assembly vote to remove them."
posted by Bella Donna at 6:48 AM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
“But it stands on the shoulders of decades of post-modern theory...”
Oh, come on. Just don't.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:58 AM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
Oh, come on. Just don't.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:58 AM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
There is a problem with declaring this "Putin's War". He gave the "go" but there are many in that regime that would have done that and will do it again.
I kind of detest John Bolton most of the time but he was on Bloomberg this morning and in this specialty he lines up with most of my thoughts. Diplomacy is important but it's not going to resolve Ukraine. These atrocities must be stopped. Ukraine may not be "the line" but it could be a significant one -- for the entire world.
There is commentary of a new domino theory, with say Moldova being a next easy target. But do you happen to know any Russian speaking folks? Putin and others have said "Russia is where ever there are Russians".
Will be very sad if historians in a hundred years write, "many people said at the time that the fall of Ukraine was the turning point of world oppression."
posted by sammyo at 7:12 AM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
I kind of detest John Bolton most of the time but he was on Bloomberg this morning and in this specialty he lines up with most of my thoughts. Diplomacy is important but it's not going to resolve Ukraine. These atrocities must be stopped. Ukraine may not be "the line" but it could be a significant one -- for the entire world.
There is commentary of a new domino theory, with say Moldova being a next easy target. But do you happen to know any Russian speaking folks? Putin and others have said "Russia is where ever there are Russians".
Will be very sad if historians in a hundred years write, "many people said at the time that the fall of Ukraine was the turning point of world oppression."
posted by sammyo at 7:12 AM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
Has anyone heard anything from Alexander Dugin lately? He's a major intellectual behind the idea that modernity (equality, worldwide connections) is just plain bad and Russia (traditionalist, Christian) is wonderful.
I've looked, and I'm not sure he's been talking about the invasion.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:21 AM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
I've looked, and I'm not sure he's been talking about the invasion.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:21 AM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
I've looked, and I'm not sure he's been talking about the invasion.
He seems to have been quiet, but I occasionally search Twitter for the term "multipolar world" and you can usually find a few useful idiots spreading Duginism that way, albeit with the serial numbers filed off, and the Traditionalism stuff muted or completely left off.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:24 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
He seems to have been quiet, but I occasionally search Twitter for the term "multipolar world" and you can usually find a few useful idiots spreading Duginism that way, albeit with the serial numbers filed off, and the Traditionalism stuff muted or completely left off.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:24 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
Moldova being a next easy target.
I don't get this. There are 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria according to the figures I've seen. Russia can't relieve or reinforce the area presently; it could be overrun from both sides if Moldova and Ukraine were to cooperate at it. The breakaway region is less than a mile wide at some points. But that would expand the current conflict into a de facto world war by the most basic definition, so it's probably best I'm not in charge of such things.
But unless Russia takes Odesa, I would expect peace conditions to restrict Russian ability to militarily reinforce Transnistria. Shuttered borders, heavily restricted air travel. Bottle the place up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:25 AM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
I don't get this. There are 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria according to the figures I've seen. Russia can't relieve or reinforce the area presently; it could be overrun from both sides if Moldova and Ukraine were to cooperate at it. The breakaway region is less than a mile wide at some points. But that would expand the current conflict into a de facto world war by the most basic definition, so it's probably best I'm not in charge of such things.
But unless Russia takes Odesa, I would expect peace conditions to restrict Russian ability to militarily reinforce Transnistria. Shuttered borders, heavily restricted air travel. Bottle the place up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:25 AM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
James Siebens, an international affairs scholar who’s an expert on diplomacy backed with threats of force, wrote an essay published a few days ago analyzing the invasion as a case of Putin’s failed attempt at coercive diplomacy. Excerpt:
As noted, prior to the invasion, there was robust debate over whether Putin intended to invade, or if he was just bluffing. Clearly Putin was not bluffing, but that does not necessarily mean that he intended to invade all along, nor does it mean that Russia’s political demands and diplomatic engagements were all part of a duplicitous ruse. On the contrary, Putin’s decision to invade may have been driven by the perceived need to make good on his tacit threats and may indicate that his political demands were sincere. Indeed, for coercion to be successful, threats must be made to seem credible, practical demands must be made clear, and political resolve around those demands must be effectively conveyed. It is also generally useful to have a clear deadline attached to an ultimatum in order to create a sense of urgency around the demands. The leadup to the war in Ukraine thus provides an object lesson in why coercive diplomacy fails.posted by Kattullus at 7:58 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
First, Russia’s demands were fairly clear and consistent, but they were not particularly realistic, nor were they attached to a defined deadline. Coercive diplomacy is inherently difficult, even when the coercer has clear advantages and relatively modest demands. Unconditional surrender, disarmament, territorial concessions, and regime change are all particularly onerous demands, especially against a well-armed opponent like Ukraine. However, Putin’s repeated efforts to deny Ukraine’s nationhood showed him to be prejudiced and unreasonable, and made it exceedingly difficult to take any diplomatic overtures to Ukraine seriously. His demands that U.S. nuclear weapons be removed from Europe and all NATO forces be pulled out of Eastern Europe were also received as unserious and were bound to be rejected.
With respect to a Russian deadline, the conclusion of the planned exercises in Belarus and the end of the Winter Olympics arguably provided a tacit deadline of Feb. 20, to the point that many open-source intelligence analysts had identified it as a time period of concern. Though intelligence indicated the possibility of a Russian invasion as early as mid-November, the first clear indication (to my knowledge) of the political decision to invade Ukraine came in late December, soon after the public rejection of Russia’s demands in negotiations with the United States. However, Russian officials never issued an overt threat or provided a concrete deadline, except perhaps when Putin made a cryptic reference to “retaliatory military-technical measures” if he did not receive a timely response to his demands, and demanded guarantees “…without any delays! Now!” Indeed, Russia’s consistent denials about the plan to invade, and especially Putin’s reassurances to Macron, may have created doubt about Russian resolve and further undermined the clarity of the threat. Captured war plans indicate that invasion plans were prepared by mid-January at the latest, but diplomacy still might have been used to greater effect up until the invasion, both for threats and for compromise.
Second, Russia badly underestimated Ukraine’s resolve to fight rather than make any territorial or political concessions, as well as NATO’s resolve to preserve its open-door policy (in principle, if not in practice). Additionally, one or more parties may have miscalculated Russia’s resolve, either ignoring the real danger of invasion or concluding that its show of force was a bluff. Russia’s demands in December were dismissed as unrealistic and interpreted as a possible indication that Russia was seeking a pretext for invasion when its demands were rejected. But while Putin’s “nonstarter demands” were clearly unacceptable from the standpoint of the United States and its NATO allies, that does not necessarily mean that they were put forward in bad faith, as is commonly asserted. Instead, they likely reflected Russia’s well-known resentment about past NATO expansion, and a sense that the implicit threat of invasion gave Russia enough leverage to demand whatever it wanted. If the United States and the rest of NATO wanted Russia to spare Ukraine, the direct demands about their military posture in Europe seemed to offer an alternative to war. Either NATO, Ukraine, or both, did not fully appreciate the seriousness of Russia’s tacit threat to invade, or they were simply not concerned enough by the prospect of war to grant Russia the political concessions required to avoid it. In either case, there was at least one gross miscalculation by at least one side (Russia).
How alleged atrocities in Bucha compare to previous Putin campaigns
The article shows how Putin is following an established playbook, wherein the mass murder of innocent civilians is a core element.
It doesn't so much mention the differences. (I hope the following isn't seen as minimizing the terror in Chechnya and Syria. Every murder is a murder, and there are no excuses for murder).
Chechnya was and is a Russian Republic. It sought independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, but had no official allies among nation states and also was unfortunate enough to get mixed up in the general mobilization of radical Islam. There is no way anyone from outside could have or would have helped Chechnya at that time.
Syria is formally recognized as a sovereign nation with a legitimate government. Assad asked Russia to aid the legitimate government forces. (Not morally legitimate, obviously). The war there is a civil war and it is extremely complex and hard to see through. Several regional powers are involved. The Kurds play a major positive role, but the US and the rest of the West have a complicated relation with the Kurds because major allies such as Turkey and whatever counts as a government in Iraq are worried about Kurdish independence movements. From the point of view of the West and the US, the decisions about doing something about the situation there was/is even further complicated by the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. If the US/NATO were to go into Syria or support the Syrian (Kurdish) rebels more efficiently, a lot of new issues would have risen.
Both Chechnya and Syria are underdeveloped nations with insane inequality and small production capacities. They could barely feed themselves before the wars, let alone have significant trade relations with other countries.
Ukraine is a sovereign nation with a democratically elected government. The vast majority of the country supports the government, and the population is double the size of Syria's and many times that of Chechnya. It is an arms-producing nation, a gas-producing nation and one of the bread baskets of the world. There are foreign investments in Ukraine worth billions of Euro. Ukrainians live all across Europe and have friends and businesspartners all over the continent + the UK. Apart from Hungary, Belarus and Russia, Ukraine's neighbors are strongly invested in keeping Russia out of Ukraine, and have lobbied for further sanctions against Russia and more military aid for Ukraine since the invasion in 2014. So have the other former east-block countries in Europe (except Serbia).
I'm not an analyst, but it seems to be that the differences here are rather significant. Someone in the Russian government should have known that, and made it very clear to the leadership, wether that is just Putin, or Putin + someone.
Before the war, the West might have persuaded the Ukrainian government to let go of Donbas and Crimea. Now, I think that is no longer an option. Maybe there could be referendums in those areas, organized by the UN, but tbh I think that ship has sailed.
posted by mumimor at 8:07 AM on April 4, 2022 [17 favorites]
The article shows how Putin is following an established playbook, wherein the mass murder of innocent civilians is a core element.
It doesn't so much mention the differences. (I hope the following isn't seen as minimizing the terror in Chechnya and Syria. Every murder is a murder, and there are no excuses for murder).
Chechnya was and is a Russian Republic. It sought independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, but had no official allies among nation states and also was unfortunate enough to get mixed up in the general mobilization of radical Islam. There is no way anyone from outside could have or would have helped Chechnya at that time.
Syria is formally recognized as a sovereign nation with a legitimate government. Assad asked Russia to aid the legitimate government forces. (Not morally legitimate, obviously). The war there is a civil war and it is extremely complex and hard to see through. Several regional powers are involved. The Kurds play a major positive role, but the US and the rest of the West have a complicated relation with the Kurds because major allies such as Turkey and whatever counts as a government in Iraq are worried about Kurdish independence movements. From the point of view of the West and the US, the decisions about doing something about the situation there was/is even further complicated by the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. If the US/NATO were to go into Syria or support the Syrian (Kurdish) rebels more efficiently, a lot of new issues would have risen.
Both Chechnya and Syria are underdeveloped nations with insane inequality and small production capacities. They could barely feed themselves before the wars, let alone have significant trade relations with other countries.
Ukraine is a sovereign nation with a democratically elected government. The vast majority of the country supports the government, and the population is double the size of Syria's and many times that of Chechnya. It is an arms-producing nation, a gas-producing nation and one of the bread baskets of the world. There are foreign investments in Ukraine worth billions of Euro. Ukrainians live all across Europe and have friends and businesspartners all over the continent + the UK. Apart from Hungary, Belarus and Russia, Ukraine's neighbors are strongly invested in keeping Russia out of Ukraine, and have lobbied for further sanctions against Russia and more military aid for Ukraine since the invasion in 2014. So have the other former east-block countries in Europe (except Serbia).
I'm not an analyst, but it seems to be that the differences here are rather significant. Someone in the Russian government should have known that, and made it very clear to the leadership, wether that is just Putin, or Putin + someone.
Before the war, the West might have persuaded the Ukrainian government to let go of Donbas and Crimea. Now, I think that is no longer an option. Maybe there could be referendums in those areas, organized by the UN, but tbh I think that ship has sailed.
posted by mumimor at 8:07 AM on April 4, 2022 [17 favorites]
To argue that the Russian demands (before the invasion and up until today) aren’t made in bad faith is to argue that the world view of a Karaganov is a valid departure point for negotiations. I don’t understand how anyone not fully submerged in Russian propaganda can believe that anything that comes out of the Russian apparatus is made in good faith.
With the latest revelations I’m appalled that my country lets the Russian diplomatic delegation stay for example. What possible use is it except to deliver more troll-level rhetoric to our local press? Not coincidentally the security police estimate one in three Russian diplomats are in fact working for one of the intelligence organisations.
If we in Europe continue to buy gas from Russia we are complicit in a genocide that we plainly know is going on, perpetrated by a regime that has repeatedly shown it does not respect the right of sovereign nations. Europe needs to do much more to support Ukraine, and we need to do it now. I’ll be on the phone all day tomorrow letting parliamentarians know what I think.
posted by boogieboy at 8:17 AM on April 4, 2022 [19 favorites]
With the latest revelations I’m appalled that my country lets the Russian diplomatic delegation stay for example. What possible use is it except to deliver more troll-level rhetoric to our local press? Not coincidentally the security police estimate one in three Russian diplomats are in fact working for one of the intelligence organisations.
If we in Europe continue to buy gas from Russia we are complicit in a genocide that we plainly know is going on, perpetrated by a regime that has repeatedly shown it does not respect the right of sovereign nations. Europe needs to do much more to support Ukraine, and we need to do it now. I’ll be on the phone all day tomorrow letting parliamentarians know what I think.
posted by boogieboy at 8:17 AM on April 4, 2022 [19 favorites]
Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs on Twitter
BIDEN: "You may remember I got criticized for calling Putin a war criminal. Well, the truth of the matter, you saw what happened in Bucha. This warrants -- he is a war criminal. But we have to gather the information."posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:27 AM on April 4, 2022 [22 favorites]
"This guy is brutal and what's happening in Bucha is outrageous, and everyone's seen it," Biden, referring to Putin, tells reporters after landing in DC after weekend in Delaware. "Yes, I'm going to continue to add sanctions."
Before the war, the West might have persuaded the Ukrainian government to let go of Donbas and Crimea. Now, I think that is no longer an option.
Anyone comfortably living a million miles away in The West making this argument has to explain which part of their country they'd sacrifice to a brutal tyrant. And then get 'I wouldn't fight for Florida' tattooed on their forehead. See how popular they are.
posted by adept256 at 8:42 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
Anyone comfortably living a million miles away in The West making this argument has to explain which part of their country they'd sacrifice to a brutal tyrant. And then get 'I wouldn't fight for Florida' tattooed on their forehead. See how popular they are.
posted by adept256 at 8:42 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
get 'I wouldn't fight for Florida' tattooed on their forehead
Is this available in a tank top
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:48 AM on April 4, 2022 [67 favorites]
Is this available in a tank top
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:48 AM on April 4, 2022 [67 favorites]
Anyone comfortably living a million miles away in The West making this argument has to explain which part of their country they'd sacrifice to a brutal tyrant.
I personally agree. But I also see the cynicism of politicians every day every year.
posted by mumimor at 8:55 AM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
I personally agree. But I also see the cynicism of politicians every day every year.
posted by mumimor at 8:55 AM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
To argue that the Russian demands (before the invasion and up until today) aren’t made in bad faith is to argue that the world view of a Karaganov is a valid departure point for negotiations. I don’t understand how anyone not fully submerged in Russian propaganda can believe that anything that comes out of the Russian apparatus is made in good faith.
“In good faith” is not the same as “reasonable” or even “reality-based”. Eg. some Q-Anon adherents really, truly believe some of that constellation of conspiracy theories. It is flat out wrong, but that’s different from being intentionally dishonest.
posted by eviemath at 9:08 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
“In good faith” is not the same as “reasonable” or even “reality-based”. Eg. some Q-Anon adherents really, truly believe some of that constellation of conspiracy theories. It is flat out wrong, but that’s different from being intentionally dishonest.
posted by eviemath at 9:08 AM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
Before the war, the West might have persuaded the Ukrainian government to let go of Donbas and Crimea. Now, I think that is no longer an option.
We have seen what Russia has done to destroy the Ukrainian people in Bucha, meanwhile its state media calls for a “final solution”. To let go of any piece of land is to condemn the Ukrainians who live on it to unimaginable hell. If any Western politician calls for that option, I vow right now I will campaign against them until the day I die. No room for appeasers in the face of genocide.
posted by corb at 9:21 AM on April 4, 2022 [32 favorites]
We have seen what Russia has done to destroy the Ukrainian people in Bucha, meanwhile its state media calls for a “final solution”. To let go of any piece of land is to condemn the Ukrainians who live on it to unimaginable hell. If any Western politician calls for that option, I vow right now I will campaign against them until the day I die. No room for appeasers in the face of genocide.
posted by corb at 9:21 AM on April 4, 2022 [32 favorites]
corb, like I said, that ship has sailed, and the Russians themselves set it afloat. A year ago, Western leaders could pretend the Russians occupying Crimea and supporting ethnic Russians in Donbas had legitimate arguments. Not now. or ever.
posted by mumimor at 9:38 AM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 9:38 AM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
Anyone comfortably living a million miles away in The West making this argument has to explain which part of their country they'd sacrifice to a brutal tyrant.
There was an interview on Youtube with a Ukrainian politician that I recently watched. He basically said the same: he said something like "If you think territorial appeasement is so crucial, you give him Alaska. That makes just as much sense as Crimea and the Donbas".
One can quibble with the details but I definitely agree with the sentiment. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and for Ukrainians to be forced (or even pressured) to give up part of their territory because of a war of aggression is unacceptable and sets a strong precedent that this sort of thing is fine, when it's not. Especially when dealing with someone like Putin, I think it's really important to send a forceful message to him that he has lost this war and should cut his losses, rather than building him the proverbial "golden bridge" as some argue. Rather, I think he should be made an example of. We must not lift sanctions until Russia has entirely left Ukrainian territory and until Russia has paid reparations to rebuild Ukraine (this is a pretty persuasive piece on the logistics of that). If that takes decades, fine. The world is becoming increasingly undemocratic, and China is watching this situation play out like a hawk. We need to have a really muscular and public approach here, while we are still are in a fair amount of control over the world order (which I think in a few decades we won't).
(Note that I'm not commenting here on whether Crimea and the Donbas should actually remain Ukrainian, only on whether Russia should allowed to seize them militarily by force. I don't know enough about the dynamics here to comment. It seems to me in general that if the majority in either region (or certain provinces of either region) would rather be Russian, that's something that needs to be seriously considered (of course, you'd need any referendum to be fair and ensure that Russia wasn't influencing things). But that's a matter to be presided over by Ukraine, I should think, and if Russia has concerns, I imagine they should peacefully address the UN or something. Of course, at this point, seeing how the current incarnation of Russia treats both their own people and Ukrainians, it seems crazy to add to their population to oppress...)
posted by ClaireBear at 10:49 AM on April 4, 2022 [19 favorites]
There was an interview on Youtube with a Ukrainian politician that I recently watched. He basically said the same: he said something like "If you think territorial appeasement is so crucial, you give him Alaska. That makes just as much sense as Crimea and the Donbas".
One can quibble with the details but I definitely agree with the sentiment. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and for Ukrainians to be forced (or even pressured) to give up part of their territory because of a war of aggression is unacceptable and sets a strong precedent that this sort of thing is fine, when it's not. Especially when dealing with someone like Putin, I think it's really important to send a forceful message to him that he has lost this war and should cut his losses, rather than building him the proverbial "golden bridge" as some argue. Rather, I think he should be made an example of. We must not lift sanctions until Russia has entirely left Ukrainian territory and until Russia has paid reparations to rebuild Ukraine (this is a pretty persuasive piece on the logistics of that). If that takes decades, fine. The world is becoming increasingly undemocratic, and China is watching this situation play out like a hawk. We need to have a really muscular and public approach here, while we are still are in a fair amount of control over the world order (which I think in a few decades we won't).
(Note that I'm not commenting here on whether Crimea and the Donbas should actually remain Ukrainian, only on whether Russia should allowed to seize them militarily by force. I don't know enough about the dynamics here to comment. It seems to me in general that if the majority in either region (or certain provinces of either region) would rather be Russian, that's something that needs to be seriously considered (of course, you'd need any referendum to be fair and ensure that Russia wasn't influencing things). But that's a matter to be presided over by Ukraine, I should think, and if Russia has concerns, I imagine they should peacefully address the UN or something. Of course, at this point, seeing how the current incarnation of Russia treats both their own people and Ukrainians, it seems crazy to add to their population to oppress...)
posted by ClaireBear at 10:49 AM on April 4, 2022 [19 favorites]
We must not lift sanctions until Russia has entirely left Ukrainian territory and until Russia has paid reparations to rebuild Ukraine
Doing this to Germany was one of the things that led to World War II, so I might advise against the reparations part. Not least because even if he found himself on the receiving end of that kind of treatment, Putin would lie about paying, use the withholding of paying as leverage, etc, etc.
This is not arguing that Ukraine should be left hanging- rather that the rebuilding will need to be more like the Marshall Plan, coming from the West as a whole. Leave Russia to sulk alone behind its borders and sort its own shit out.
posted by notoriety public at 12:08 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
Doing this to Germany was one of the things that led to World War II, so I might advise against the reparations part. Not least because even if he found himself on the receiving end of that kind of treatment, Putin would lie about paying, use the withholding of paying as leverage, etc, etc.
This is not arguing that Ukraine should be left hanging- rather that the rebuilding will need to be more like the Marshall Plan, coming from the West as a whole. Leave Russia to sulk alone behind its borders and sort its own shit out.
posted by notoriety public at 12:08 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
Doing this to Germany was one of the things that led to World War II, so I might advise against the reparations part.
they've already put a bloodthirsty tyrant in power, so reparations aren't going to make it worse
posted by pyramid termite at 12:26 PM on April 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
they've already put a bloodthirsty tyrant in power, so reparations aren't going to make it worse
posted by pyramid termite at 12:26 PM on April 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
they've already put a bloodthirsty tyrant in power, so reparations aren't going to make it worse
Okay, then how do you feel about the argument that a Russia under Max Sanctions would simply not have the economic capacity to make any reparations? Are you going to leave Ukraine in shambles indefinitely, mandating that nobody else help them, because it’s Russia’s fault and they need to fix it?
posted by notoriety public at 12:36 PM on April 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Okay, then how do you feel about the argument that a Russia under Max Sanctions would simply not have the economic capacity to make any reparations? Are you going to leave Ukraine in shambles indefinitely, mandating that nobody else help them, because it’s Russia’s fault and they need to fix it?
posted by notoriety public at 12:36 PM on April 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
that's simple - the west fixes it and we send russia the bill - once they agree to a payment plan we can start lifting the sanctions
they have plenty of oil and other commodities to help pay for it
posted by pyramid termite at 12:44 PM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
they have plenty of oil and other commodities to help pay for it
posted by pyramid termite at 12:44 PM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
Ah, I see. This is about punishing Russia under the guise of helping Ukraine. I’m not against punishing Russia, but you should be honest that, as we often say of other questionable political organizations: “the cruelty is the point”.
I think that once Russia finally capitulates (if ever), the West will be paying to rebuild them too. Sucking more wealth out of an already failed state doesn’t end well.
posted by notoriety public at 12:50 PM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
I think that once Russia finally capitulates (if ever), the West will be paying to rebuild them too. Sucking more wealth out of an already failed state doesn’t end well.
posted by notoriety public at 12:50 PM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
The recent episode of the Ezra Klein show on economic sanctions as warfare is apropos. The interviewed author is Nicholas Mulder:
Nicholas Mulder is a historian at Cornell University and the author of the terrifyingly relevant new book “The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War.” In it, Mulder focuses on the last time economic warfare was waged at the scale we’re witnessing today, the period between World War I and World War II. And the book’s central lesson is this: We ultimately don’t know what’s going to happen when sanctions of this magnitude collide with the ideologies, myths and political dynamics of a given country. They could persuade the targeted country to back down. But they could also make it so desperate that it becomes more aggressive or lashes out — as Germany and Japan did on the eve of World War II.posted by snuffleupagus at 12:56 PM on April 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
I’m not against punishing Russia, but you should be honest that, as we often say of other questionable political organizations: “the cruelty is the point”.
i absolutely agree - ukraine has been invaded, its citizens have been murdered by their own homes, everything that could be ruined has been ruined and some even say that citizens have been forcibly removed to russia
oh, yes, "the cruelty IS the point"
bye
posted by pyramid termite at 12:57 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
i absolutely agree - ukraine has been invaded, its citizens have been murdered by their own homes, everything that could be ruined has been ruined and some even say that citizens have been forcibly removed to russia
oh, yes, "the cruelty IS the point"
bye
posted by pyramid termite at 12:57 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
Boo-hooing about possible hypothetical future Russian economic suffering while Russia is raping and pillaging Ukraine RIGHT NOW is monstrous.
posted by The Tensor at 12:58 PM on April 4, 2022 [28 favorites]
posted by The Tensor at 12:58 PM on April 4, 2022 [28 favorites]
On the contrary we are far likely to have to implement a new Marshall Plan to rebuild Russia if we ever pry Putin out of there.
posted by bq at 12:58 PM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by bq at 12:58 PM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think while it's important to learn from history, there's some nuance around the Germany WWI situation that is worth teasing out.
Germany lost the First World War and was forced to pay reparations, which caused the nation as a whole to feel humiliation. The resentment that sprouted up from that is what Hitler used to ride to power but he was only able to do that based on popular choices of the German people. The second defeat of Germany was a humiliation but because of a combination of reconstruction and an extensive period of occupation by foreign powers, Germany came out of the Second World War with a deep sense of shame. It owned its defeat and transformed itself based on a broad perception that the war was self destructive. This experience was also largely mirrored by Japan post WWII where the nation accepted being disarmed and rechanneled its shame into becoming an economic powerhouse.
I think one can argue that Russia has essentially met the same fate of a post WWII Germany except it faced this at the end of the Cold War. Its empire was disintegrated, and it was put through a humiliating austerity economic regime that further degraded the standard of living of most Russians. Putin rose to power in the midst of that humiliation and has been promising every Russian a restoration of some form. Just like Hitler.
So the question is not whether or not reparations are appropriate, but how do you build Ukraine and how do you make the average Russian citizen recognize their own role in this tragedy and feel shame and regret over their nation choosing to do this?
I don't think sanctions are enough. I think you actually need to inflict a deeper trauma to the nation. Otherwise our modern media landscape makes it too easy for folks to ignore the crime.
posted by bl1nk at 1:10 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
Germany lost the First World War and was forced to pay reparations, which caused the nation as a whole to feel humiliation. The resentment that sprouted up from that is what Hitler used to ride to power but he was only able to do that based on popular choices of the German people. The second defeat of Germany was a humiliation but because of a combination of reconstruction and an extensive period of occupation by foreign powers, Germany came out of the Second World War with a deep sense of shame. It owned its defeat and transformed itself based on a broad perception that the war was self destructive. This experience was also largely mirrored by Japan post WWII where the nation accepted being disarmed and rechanneled its shame into becoming an economic powerhouse.
I think one can argue that Russia has essentially met the same fate of a post WWII Germany except it faced this at the end of the Cold War. Its empire was disintegrated, and it was put through a humiliating austerity economic regime that further degraded the standard of living of most Russians. Putin rose to power in the midst of that humiliation and has been promising every Russian a restoration of some form. Just like Hitler.
So the question is not whether or not reparations are appropriate, but how do you build Ukraine and how do you make the average Russian citizen recognize their own role in this tragedy and feel shame and regret over their nation choosing to do this?
I don't think sanctions are enough. I think you actually need to inflict a deeper trauma to the nation. Otherwise our modern media landscape makes it too easy for folks to ignore the crime.
posted by bl1nk at 1:10 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
There aren't really other arrows in the quiver under the established protocols for avoiding runaway escalation. It's still important to think about the consequences of the use of of economic weapons, just as with any other weapon.
Questions of reparations and such don't need to be decided now. When it comes to post-war reconciliation, the focus of Ukrainian representatives (like Zelenskyy) has been on ensuring responsibility for atrocities; the rest can wait.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:13 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
Questions of reparations and such don't need to be decided now. When it comes to post-war reconciliation, the focus of Ukrainian representatives (like Zelenskyy) has been on ensuring responsibility for atrocities; the rest can wait.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:13 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
I don't think you can put it up very simply: "sanctions are bad because Weimar Germany", or "sanctions are good because apartheid South Africa". Right now and here sanctions are the one tool we have that is not all out war. Diplomacy is clearly not an option.
On preview, as snufflepagus said above, we will deal with the rest later.
posted by mumimor at 1:16 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
On preview, as snufflepagus said above, we will deal with the rest later.
posted by mumimor at 1:16 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
This is a complete mockery and embarrassment to reality. What is even the point of the UN in this war if it's just another stage to amplify russia's lies and have the members of their national criminal enterprise respected as peers. IF the UN wants to be so hung up on rules and regulations over russia's place in it, they should just shut up shop and refuse to meet until the conflict is over. What will we get out of this, another vote of "condemnation" so that there can be one more headline about it after this asshole gets his great nation's video message out on twitter? I don't get why they are continuously trying to play ball with a group they know does not follow any rules.
posted by WeekendJen at 1:22 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by WeekendJen at 1:22 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
Russian State Media Novosti has published a chilling oped which says that a "De-Ukrainification" is needed.
Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt. Full article translated.
Disclaimer: What you are about to read is a direct translation of an article written by a russian propagandist. This is what real #Russia wants. In this article, the author is describing ways how Russians want to wipe out Ukraine in the same way the Soviet regime did it. Putin will not stop until he is stopped.
posted by adamvasco at 1:50 PM on April 4, 2022 [25 favorites]
Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt. Full article translated.
Disclaimer: What you are about to read is a direct translation of an article written by a russian propagandist. This is what real #Russia wants. In this article, the author is describing ways how Russians want to wipe out Ukraine in the same way the Soviet regime did it. Putin will not stop until he is stopped.
posted by adamvasco at 1:50 PM on April 4, 2022 [25 favorites]
@bl1nk talks about both humiliation, and shame. I would love to see Putin and his hangers-on humiliated. That is for sure part of my revenge fantasy.
But what I really wish for the Russian population at large is for them to feel shame. Shame for what Russia has done/is doing in Ukraine, and in Syria, and in Georgia, and in Chechnya, etc. I don't wish it because shame can be painful, but because shame can be transformative. Shame requires a more inward-looking, reflective, humility. It requires honesty, and a recognition of truth and facts. And it creates the opportunity for redirection and renewed strength. Ukraine has shameful periods in its past too. And the nation has been very slowly, clumsily, sometime reluctantly, acknowledging and coming to terms with that history. In Canada now I also see the slow, clumsy, very beginnings of acknowledgment of its colonial past, the appropriate shame, and hopefully actions to address the wrongs. But Russia has never thoroughly exposed and addressed its collective crimes as the lead state of the USSR (despite some societal efforts), never mind examined the chauvinistic colonial mindframe that still persists from Russian imperial times. Russia requires a reimagining of its identity based on some kind of positive values and myths. But that requires at least a period of reflection and relative vulnerability. So my fear is that Russia might always reject shame, because it mistakes it for weakness.
posted by Kabanos at 1:58 PM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
But what I really wish for the Russian population at large is for them to feel shame. Shame for what Russia has done/is doing in Ukraine, and in Syria, and in Georgia, and in Chechnya, etc. I don't wish it because shame can be painful, but because shame can be transformative. Shame requires a more inward-looking, reflective, humility. It requires honesty, and a recognition of truth and facts. And it creates the opportunity for redirection and renewed strength. Ukraine has shameful periods in its past too. And the nation has been very slowly, clumsily, sometime reluctantly, acknowledging and coming to terms with that history. In Canada now I also see the slow, clumsy, very beginnings of acknowledgment of its colonial past, the appropriate shame, and hopefully actions to address the wrongs. But Russia has never thoroughly exposed and addressed its collective crimes as the lead state of the USSR (despite some societal efforts), never mind examined the chauvinistic colonial mindframe that still persists from Russian imperial times. Russia requires a reimagining of its identity based on some kind of positive values and myths. But that requires at least a period of reflection and relative vulnerability. So my fear is that Russia might always reject shame, because it mistakes it for weakness.
posted by Kabanos at 1:58 PM on April 4, 2022 [13 favorites]
this is getting into my arguments from 20 years ago, "Saddam is the symptom, not the root cause"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:58 PM on April 4, 2022
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:58 PM on April 4, 2022
@bl1nk talks about both humiliation, and shame. I would love to see Putin and his hangers-on humiliated. That is for sure part of my revenge fantasy.
He's been held at bay and frustrated by a man whose prior claim to fame was playing the piano with his balls.
posted by ocschwar at 1:59 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
He's been held at bay and frustrated by a man whose prior claim to fame was playing the piano with his balls.
posted by ocschwar at 1:59 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
>Sucking more wealth out of an already failed state doesn’t end well.
Russia's wealth is all in the ground.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:02 PM on April 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia's wealth is all in the ground.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:02 PM on April 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
A small observation, mostly for the MeFites who are in the Americas or Australia. Our local media are increasingly writing/talking about stuff like bomb-shelters, iodine, prepping for survival etc. And today the government began talking about shifting to an emergency economy.
You can see this two ways simultaneously:
#1: this is scary as shit
#2: no one is backing down
I have not heard or seen one single elected official say we should give way to the Russian demands.
posted by mumimor at 2:26 PM on April 4, 2022 [31 favorites]
You can see this two ways simultaneously:
#1: this is scary as shit
#2: no one is backing down
I have not heard or seen one single elected official say we should give way to the Russian demands.
posted by mumimor at 2:26 PM on April 4, 2022 [31 favorites]
Moldova has essentially no army to speak of, it’s under 10,000 professional soldiers and very lightly equipped. It is also very poor and really just wants to keep its head down. The Russian occupied region is very pro-Russian and isn’t really culturally connected to them. They can’t afford to take it and even if they did it isn’t clear they want all the headaches that come with it.
posted by interogative mood at 2:35 PM on April 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:35 PM on April 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's only pro-Russian in a political sense because the ethnic Russians were basically on top when all the USSR shit hit the fan and have repressed everyone else. Transnistria is close to evenly split between Russians, Ukrainians, and Moldovans demographic wise. It's not just as simple as giving up on it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:01 PM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:01 PM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Okay, then how do you feel about the argument that a Russia under Max Sanctions would simply not have the economic capacity to make any reparations? Are you going to leave Ukraine in shambles indefinitely, mandating that nobody else help them, because it’s Russia’s fault and they need to fix it?
Everything I've read (including that Politico piece I linked) indicates Russia has significant foreign currency reserves - indeed, that Putin has been deliberately building those up since 2014. Some of these are now frozen by Western countries. My understanding is that the argument is basically to use those frozen reserves. (Not quite: the Politico piece makes a more nuanced argument - that we use the unfreezing of those reserves as the carrot for Russian reparations - but I think that it's effectively the same result as other arguments, in that the reparations money would presumably ultimately come from some of that frozen money.)
Russia also has plenty of potential money in oil and gas (looks like one estimate puts it at an income of $500 million per day from oil and gas). One could potentially structure reparations as a kind of extra tariff/tax on their oil and gas sales, to be paid back over time. Say, a 1% or 5% or whatever tariff on sales to EU, US, and whatever other countries will come onboard. If in some post-Putin fantasyland the companies were restructured so they didn't have oligarchs skimming 50% off the top, they might even net more than they do now even with such tariffs.
In any case, I'm not proposing leaving Ukraine in shambles indefinitely. I'm proposing Western countries either loaning the money or footing the bill temporarily or whatever, and sending the bill to Russia. The sanctions stay on Russia until they pay. That's what I'm advocating.
posted by ClaireBear at 3:02 PM on April 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
Everything I've read (including that Politico piece I linked) indicates Russia has significant foreign currency reserves - indeed, that Putin has been deliberately building those up since 2014. Some of these are now frozen by Western countries. My understanding is that the argument is basically to use those frozen reserves. (Not quite: the Politico piece makes a more nuanced argument - that we use the unfreezing of those reserves as the carrot for Russian reparations - but I think that it's effectively the same result as other arguments, in that the reparations money would presumably ultimately come from some of that frozen money.)
Russia also has plenty of potential money in oil and gas (looks like one estimate puts it at an income of $500 million per day from oil and gas). One could potentially structure reparations as a kind of extra tariff/tax on their oil and gas sales, to be paid back over time. Say, a 1% or 5% or whatever tariff on sales to EU, US, and whatever other countries will come onboard. If in some post-Putin fantasyland the companies were restructured so they didn't have oligarchs skimming 50% off the top, they might even net more than they do now even with such tariffs.
In any case, I'm not proposing leaving Ukraine in shambles indefinitely. I'm proposing Western countries either loaning the money or footing the bill temporarily or whatever, and sending the bill to Russia. The sanctions stay on Russia until they pay. That's what I'm advocating.
posted by ClaireBear at 3:02 PM on April 4, 2022 [7 favorites]
Adamvasco, they are talking about the exact same thing they did in Eastern Europe after WWII. They did this, and dozens of millions people perished, in interment camp and prizons alone, not to mention all the other methods they used to commit cultural genocide in a lot of countries.
It is tragic that the rest of the world has barely acknowledged this. In the US, sadly the reality of Sovjet crimes and Sovjet-style dictatorships has been ridden by the right wing, who mostly doesn't/ didn't care about the plight of people half a world away, but used it to opress the left. The left didn't care because they thought it was a bugbear used to discredit socialism/ communism.
But now the western world needs to pay attention, believe us, and care. The stakes are much higher this time than just hunreds of million people living in abject misery (again).
posted by doggod at 3:30 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
It is tragic that the rest of the world has barely acknowledged this. In the US, sadly the reality of Sovjet crimes and Sovjet-style dictatorships has been ridden by the right wing, who mostly doesn't/ didn't care about the plight of people half a world away, but used it to opress the left. The left didn't care because they thought it was a bugbear used to discredit socialism/ communism.
But now the western world needs to pay attention, believe us, and care. The stakes are much higher this time than just hunreds of million people living in abject misery (again).
posted by doggod at 3:30 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
Russia is the largest patch of sovereign land on the planet, with immense mineral (and timber!) holdings, not to forget owning so much of the untapped arctic in its EEZ.
yet its NIIP (net wealth position) is between South Korea and Denmark.
It's got the wealth to make Ukraine whole for its present misdeeds, such as it can.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:41 PM on April 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
yet its NIIP (net wealth position) is between South Korea and Denmark.
It's got the wealth to make Ukraine whole for its present misdeeds, such as it can.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:41 PM on April 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
After WW1, Germany suffered humiliation, which fostered the toxic resentment on which Hitler thrived. After WW2, though, Germany's cultural identity suffered a sort of national ego-death. German national identity which had existed at the time of the Third Reich was tainted, and best not touched; parts would be reclaimed piecemeal (Beethoven and Goethe fairly quickly, along with the parts of German modernity crushed by the Nazis; meanwhile, Wagner is still contentious) and the void filled with international modernism, Anglo-American pop culture and attempts at a new culture (largely after 1968). (That's in the West; the East is a whole nother kettle of fish.)
Any reconstructed Russia will have to go through a similar process. For a generation or two, it will be shameful to be Russian. The Russian language will be used as shorthand for war and atrocity in playgrounds and edgy alternative music. Some will look for things to salvage from the ruins: the anti-authoritarian mindset of Russian literature, perhaps, or avant-garde art movements. Anything remotely redolent of Putinist "Russian World" ideology will be regarded as toxic waste.
One thing I hope that happens, as happened in Germany, is a breaking up of the system of central authority that has stood, in one form or another, since the time of Peter the Great. The Allies' constitution imposed on the defeated Germany did this, weakening federal authority, devolving powers and constructing checks and balances, so that another Führer cannot easily rise. If anything, Russia, with its system of centralised, unchecked power in an almost godlike leader needs this even more, as the dynamics of this system (as per Kamil Galeev's recent thread) tend to lead towards tyranny.
posted by acb at 3:46 PM on April 4, 2022 [11 favorites]
Any reconstructed Russia will have to go through a similar process. For a generation or two, it will be shameful to be Russian. The Russian language will be used as shorthand for war and atrocity in playgrounds and edgy alternative music. Some will look for things to salvage from the ruins: the anti-authoritarian mindset of Russian literature, perhaps, or avant-garde art movements. Anything remotely redolent of Putinist "Russian World" ideology will be regarded as toxic waste.
One thing I hope that happens, as happened in Germany, is a breaking up of the system of central authority that has stood, in one form or another, since the time of Peter the Great. The Allies' constitution imposed on the defeated Germany did this, weakening federal authority, devolving powers and constructing checks and balances, so that another Führer cannot easily rise. If anything, Russia, with its system of centralised, unchecked power in an almost godlike leader needs this even more, as the dynamics of this system (as per Kamil Galeev's recent thread) tend to lead towards tyranny.
posted by acb at 3:46 PM on April 4, 2022 [11 favorites]
What is even the point of the UN in this war
The UN has never been able to fully constrain war inside its member nations. It's basically become the place you go to rubber stamp acts of war. At best, it functions as a cross check on security council actions, so they don't accidentally go to war with one another.
posted by pwnguin at 3:47 PM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
The UN has never been able to fully constrain war inside its member nations. It's basically become the place you go to rubber stamp acts of war. At best, it functions as a cross check on security council actions, so they don't accidentally go to war with one another.
posted by pwnguin at 3:47 PM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Boo-hooing about possible hypothetical future Russian economic suffering while Russia is raping and pillaging Ukraine RIGHT NOW is monstrous.In general, I think the word "monstrous" has a pretty high bar associated with it. And when using it to compare something to the sort of thing that Russia is doing in Ukraine, I think that that bar is raised even further.
"Let's think about how Russia should be brought back into communion with the world after this is all over" is, in my opinion, not monstrous. Not even close, really. But given that it's being compared to what Russia is actually doing now, it seems almost farcical, honestly.
posted by Flunkie at 3:52 PM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
We got Germany to reinvent itself post-WWII by levelling their cities, lopping off chunks of German territory, engaging in mass "population exchanges" so the population ethnicity matched the new borders, dividing the country, the indefinite presence of foreign troops on its border, the permanent occupation of the eastern quarter, and an external threat on their borders. It was about 20 years after the war ended that they started coming to terms with their past.
In Japan there wasn't the division or territorial adjustments; it was "just" levelling the cities, the external threat, long term occupation and two nuclear bombs. It was arguably less successful.
The cost of imposing these things on them by the West was of course not just monetary, but fueled the rise of the US national security state and was used to discredit internal dissent and reform. (Though to be punctilious it also suppressed some types of right wing extremism for a while.)
It's not clear to me if people sketching out their hopes for Russia to undergo a similar transformation are actually imagining total war against Russia but, if not, I'm not sure what the humiliation and shame based mechanism is going to be. And if so, I'm not sure how you could look at Iraq or Afghanistan and rate our odds of success all that highly.
posted by mark k at 4:00 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
In Japan there wasn't the division or territorial adjustments; it was "just" levelling the cities, the external threat, long term occupation and two nuclear bombs. It was arguably less successful.
The cost of imposing these things on them by the West was of course not just monetary, but fueled the rise of the US national security state and was used to discredit internal dissent and reform. (Though to be punctilious it also suppressed some types of right wing extremism for a while.)
It's not clear to me if people sketching out their hopes for Russia to undergo a similar transformation are actually imagining total war against Russia but, if not, I'm not sure what the humiliation and shame based mechanism is going to be. And if so, I'm not sure how you could look at Iraq or Afghanistan and rate our odds of success all that highly.
posted by mark k at 4:00 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
it was getting utterly smashed by the Allies 1943-45 with widespread urban destruction that far, far exceeded the present devastation in Ukraine that utterly discredited the nationalistic militarist traditions in Germany and Japan, leaving the saner conservative/liberal order to re-take a firm grip on the reins of power.
The respective fascists forced their nations into wars that their twisted philosophies and domestic repression regimes couldn't win, and the survivors had had enough of them.
30% of any population are dunderheaded fools, but if the resultant reality is a bitch enough it can break through to the muddled middle to reject them and go with the better side.
For a while, anyway.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:00 PM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
The respective fascists forced their nations into wars that their twisted philosophies and domestic repression regimes couldn't win, and the survivors had had enough of them.
30% of any population are dunderheaded fools, but if the resultant reality is a bitch enough it can break through to the muddled middle to reject them and go with the better side.
For a while, anyway.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:00 PM on April 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Reparations for Ukraine
Exiled Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky recently proposed a radical plan — he called it his 7D plan — to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.
Russian state TV calls for REPARATIONS from the US over sanctions: 3-15-22 {Dailey Mail}
Invasion has cost near a quarter trillion dollars (weapons not included) and will most likely treble before Russia is gone. Talk of a Marshall "like" plan is not a great analogy, see ' Marshall Plan'.
Someone up thread, "Putin's narrow window." indeed, just look at the fighter craft deliveries to Europe from America. most arriving with-in 1-2 years. That changes the balance of power along with other system upgrades and misc. weaponry. Ukraine makes jet turbines like few other. Before the invasion, there was US, China, Russia "grab" for some key industries, Ukraine said NO the US hairbrain scheme. China tried to take Ukraine to court and Turkey has a stake. Rebuilding is tomorrow. recapturing is the goal, IMO.
posted by clavdivs at 4:15 PM on April 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Exiled Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky recently proposed a radical plan — he called it his 7D plan — to punish Russia for invading Ukraine.
Russian state TV calls for REPARATIONS from the US over sanctions: 3-15-22 {Dailey Mail}
Invasion has cost near a quarter trillion dollars (weapons not included) and will most likely treble before Russia is gone. Talk of a Marshall "like" plan is not a great analogy, see ' Marshall Plan'.
Someone up thread, "Putin's narrow window." indeed, just look at the fighter craft deliveries to Europe from America. most arriving with-in 1-2 years. That changes the balance of power along with other system upgrades and misc. weaponry. Ukraine makes jet turbines like few other. Before the invasion, there was US, China, Russia "grab" for some key industries, Ukraine said NO the US hairbrain scheme. China tried to take Ukraine to court and Turkey has a stake. Rebuilding is tomorrow. recapturing is the goal, IMO.
posted by clavdivs at 4:15 PM on April 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
being the average North Korean no doubt sucks, and the liberal order has no fix for this.
The Russians need to find a path out of this similar dismal future they are making for themselves.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:16 PM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
The Russians need to find a path out of this similar dismal future they are making for themselves.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:16 PM on April 4, 2022 [8 favorites]
Probably good to find a way to disentangle the serving Russian army men who are doing the bad things from the general Russian populace who probably has no idea what is going on even if it is their sons or daughters who are doing these things.
I know you mean well but please stop. This is not the lived experience of many Ukrainians. This whole "Russians don't know" is pure fantasy and has not been in any way backed up by the populist sentiment which has been continually polled since the launch of the war. If anything the Russian populace are solidifying behind Putin and the anti-war crowd is a shell of a minority of the people who are left. This is not to justify collective punishment, only to say that you're muddying the waters in service of people who are quite happily and loudly calling for more blood to be drawn.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:17 PM on April 4, 2022 [37 favorites]
I know you mean well but please stop. This is not the lived experience of many Ukrainians. This whole "Russians don't know" is pure fantasy and has not been in any way backed up by the populist sentiment which has been continually polled since the launch of the war. If anything the Russian populace are solidifying behind Putin and the anti-war crowd is a shell of a minority of the people who are left. This is not to justify collective punishment, only to say that you're muddying the waters in service of people who are quite happily and loudly calling for more blood to be drawn.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:17 PM on April 4, 2022 [37 favorites]
Russia also has plenty of potential money in oil and gas (looks like one estimate puts it at an income of $500 million per day from oil and gas).
One of the good things to come out of this is the (possibly temporary) forced acceleration of decarbonifying in Europe (EG: Cancelation of NORD STREAM 2). I really hope we don't use carbon to reconstruct Ukraine (IE: "We _have_ to exploit this carbon resource because it will rebuild Ukraine"). That will mostly enrich oil companies to the detriment of the planet. And it would be bad for Russia who shouldn't be forced to invest in a dying industry.
posted by Mitheral at 4:50 PM on April 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
One of the good things to come out of this is the (possibly temporary) forced acceleration of decarbonifying in Europe (EG: Cancelation of NORD STREAM 2). I really hope we don't use carbon to reconstruct Ukraine (IE: "We _have_ to exploit this carbon resource because it will rebuild Ukraine"). That will mostly enrich oil companies to the detriment of the planet. And it would be bad for Russia who shouldn't be forced to invest in a dying industry.
posted by Mitheral at 4:50 PM on April 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
What I don't understand is whether Lavrov et al. actually think that we believe their bullshit, or not. Is it a show of power, in that they know that we know that they're lying, and they can get away with saying it? Or do they actually think we're as brainwashed as many Russians?
posted by ClaireBear at 5:05 PM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ClaireBear at 5:05 PM on April 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
> Lavrov
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7870768-never-believe-that-anti-semites-are-completely-unaware-of-the-absurdity
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 5:09 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7870768-never-believe-that-anti-semites-are-completely-unaware-of-the-absurdity
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 5:09 PM on April 4, 2022 [14 favorites]
It makes people hesitate and debate their sincerity instead of acting.
posted by ctmf at 5:10 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 5:10 PM on April 4, 2022 [12 favorites]
They don't think anyone actually believes their bullshit but it's a nice benefit if some idiot actually does. The object is to sow as much uncertainty into the discourse so that people trying to get this shit straight can't be bothered and hence don't take a position on it. As far as people like Lavrov are concerned, apathy about oppression is as just as good/useful as supporting oppression.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:11 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:11 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
In Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian forces are carrying out filtration measures and forcible deportation of local residents to Russia Ukraine's GenStaff
Sorry to be naive but shouldn't the UN and Red Cross be petitioning Russia to begin wellness and safety visits of the displaced population?
posted by sammyo at 5:34 PM on April 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
Sorry to be naive but shouldn't the UN and Red Cross be petitioning Russia to begin wellness and safety visits of the displaced population?
posted by sammyo at 5:34 PM on April 4, 2022 [6 favorites]
What happened in Bucha, Borodyanka etc. must never be forgotten. When I look at the images (warning: corpses although no close-ups) I see a provincial town that that looks pretty much the same as those a few km from where I live. The messy overhead cables. The new houses most likely owned by people who grew up in nearby apartment blocks. The decorated concrete fencing. The piles of building materials waiting for an uncle to make good on his promises.
I suspect that many Europeans, even if some of their friends or family don't come from towns just like that, have passed through similar places travelling between the budget airline airport and the city-break destination. Any such massacre is unspeakable, no matter what the people or place looks like, but it certainly brings it home when you know that the perpetrators consider your home rightfully theirs in much the same way they do the place with bodies in the streets.
And yet I worry about the focus on war crimes and future punishment for them. One of the reasons armies commit war crimes is to terrorise and demoralise. From the start, there has been a tendency to see this war as an inevitable catalogue of Ukrainian suffering as a result of Russian military might.
And yet - Ukraine won the Battle of Kyiv with Russian forces retreating in disorder! Ukraine has managed to increase its tank inventory through capturing more usable tanks than it has lost in combat! Ukraine has now carried out an air strike on a strategic target inside Russia!
If Ukraine's allies provide more and better military supplies without delay and there is a further ramping up of sanctions there is a very real possibility that Ukraine can win a war of attrition in the east. Russia may have set itself much easier new targets in southern and eastern Ukraine but their logistical weaknesses remain with growing evidence of them losing equipment faster than is sustainable, lacking sufficient numbers of well-trained troops and rumours of serious morale problems.
Increased military support and sanctions aren't unthinkable. The German husband of a friend mused at the start of the war that the best way for to minimise bloodshed would be a quick Ukrainian surrender. He's now as implacably anti-Putin as many Poles and would support an energy embargo against Russia.
My other reason for not focussing on the worst atrocities and revenge fantasies is that the Ukrainian refugees I talk to certainly aren't. They're keeping up with the news, but they know that it's more important to support other refugees and those still back home, sharing advice on navigating life in a new country, learning the language (and, dammit, getting manicures). They want support for their families and pressure on our governments to step up efforts to help Ukraine win the war... or at least the peace.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 5:46 PM on April 4, 2022 [37 favorites]
I suspect that many Europeans, even if some of their friends or family don't come from towns just like that, have passed through similar places travelling between the budget airline airport and the city-break destination. Any such massacre is unspeakable, no matter what the people or place looks like, but it certainly brings it home when you know that the perpetrators consider your home rightfully theirs in much the same way they do the place with bodies in the streets.
And yet I worry about the focus on war crimes and future punishment for them. One of the reasons armies commit war crimes is to terrorise and demoralise. From the start, there has been a tendency to see this war as an inevitable catalogue of Ukrainian suffering as a result of Russian military might.
And yet - Ukraine won the Battle of Kyiv with Russian forces retreating in disorder! Ukraine has managed to increase its tank inventory through capturing more usable tanks than it has lost in combat! Ukraine has now carried out an air strike on a strategic target inside Russia!
If Ukraine's allies provide more and better military supplies without delay and there is a further ramping up of sanctions there is a very real possibility that Ukraine can win a war of attrition in the east. Russia may have set itself much easier new targets in southern and eastern Ukraine but their logistical weaknesses remain with growing evidence of them losing equipment faster than is sustainable, lacking sufficient numbers of well-trained troops and rumours of serious morale problems.
Increased military support and sanctions aren't unthinkable. The German husband of a friend mused at the start of the war that the best way for to minimise bloodshed would be a quick Ukrainian surrender. He's now as implacably anti-Putin as many Poles and would support an energy embargo against Russia.
My other reason for not focussing on the worst atrocities and revenge fantasies is that the Ukrainian refugees I talk to certainly aren't. They're keeping up with the news, but they know that it's more important to support other refugees and those still back home, sharing advice on navigating life in a new country, learning the language (and, dammit, getting manicures). They want support for their families and pressure on our governments to step up efforts to help Ukraine win the war... or at least the peace.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 5:46 PM on April 4, 2022 [37 favorites]
As far as people like Lavrov are concerned, apathy about oppression is as just as good/useful as supporting oppression.
A good case in point is Chechnya. If you've not seen Chechnya: War Without Trace, I highly recommend it.
From this 2015 interview with Manon Loizeau, the filmmaker:
When French filmmaker Manon Loizeau arrived in Grozny several years ago to begin work on a new documentary, she didn't recognize the city.
Loizeau had traveled to Chechnya on numerous occasions and had already filmed four disturbing documentaries about the deadly impact of Russia's two wars against separatist insurgents in the republic, including Chronicle of a Disappearance.
But when she returned, she found a population that had seemingly forgotten the wars and a glistening new city of skyscrapers, shopping malls, and ubiquitous portraits of the man once seen as Enemy No. 1 -- Russian President Vladimir Putin.
[...]
"One person in Chechnya said to me that [Putin and Kadyrov] are conducting an experiment on them, in order to see how it works, and then they'll spread it to all of Russia," she says.
"I don't think that's happened yet in Russia, but the methods are already in place. Anna Politkovskaya, who I knew well, said that the conflict in Chechnya has entered into all spheres of Russian society, it's everywhere. And what's going on in Ukraine is tied to it as well."
And here we are.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:55 PM on April 4, 2022 [33 favorites]
A good case in point is Chechnya. If you've not seen Chechnya: War Without Trace, I highly recommend it.
From this 2015 interview with Manon Loizeau, the filmmaker:
When French filmmaker Manon Loizeau arrived in Grozny several years ago to begin work on a new documentary, she didn't recognize the city.
Loizeau had traveled to Chechnya on numerous occasions and had already filmed four disturbing documentaries about the deadly impact of Russia's two wars against separatist insurgents in the republic, including Chronicle of a Disappearance.
But when she returned, she found a population that had seemingly forgotten the wars and a glistening new city of skyscrapers, shopping malls, and ubiquitous portraits of the man once seen as Enemy No. 1 -- Russian President Vladimir Putin.
[...]
"One person in Chechnya said to me that [Putin and Kadyrov] are conducting an experiment on them, in order to see how it works, and then they'll spread it to all of Russia," she says.
"I don't think that's happened yet in Russia, but the methods are already in place. Anna Politkovskaya, who I knew well, said that the conflict in Chechnya has entered into all spheres of Russian society, it's everywhere. And what's going on in Ukraine is tied to it as well."
And here we are.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:55 PM on April 4, 2022 [33 favorites]
Ukrainian mothers are writing their family contacts on the bodies of their children in case they get killed and the child survives. And Europe is still discussing gas.
posted by gwint at 6:32 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by gwint at 6:32 PM on April 4, 2022 [15 favorites]
Of Abduction, Deportation, & Modern Slavery.
The abduction and deportation of up to 402,000 Ukrainians to Russia, including some 15,000 people from the besieged city of Mariupol, sends a chilling reminder of the region’s Soviet past.
While Russia claims that this constitutes an “evacuation”, human rights monitors report that deportees have been stripped of their passports and forced to sign papers saying they will remain in Russia in the districts they are moved to for two years to work without payment, rendering them as slaves.
posted by adamvasco at 7:33 PM on April 4, 2022 [16 favorites]
The abduction and deportation of up to 402,000 Ukrainians to Russia, including some 15,000 people from the besieged city of Mariupol, sends a chilling reminder of the region’s Soviet past.
While Russia claims that this constitutes an “evacuation”, human rights monitors report that deportees have been stripped of their passports and forced to sign papers saying they will remain in Russia in the districts they are moved to for two years to work without payment, rendering them as slaves.
posted by adamvasco at 7:33 PM on April 4, 2022 [16 favorites]
And I think at 1,000 plus comments we are probably due for a new thread.
posted by adamvasco at 7:34 PM on April 4, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 7:34 PM on April 4, 2022 [16 favorites]
While Russia claims that this constitutes an “evacuation”, human rights monitors report that deportees have been stripped of their passports and forced to sign papers saying they will remain in Russia in the districts they are moved to for two years to work without payment, rendering them as slaves.It's not that I believe this couldn't possibly be happening - it is disturbingly possible. But I've never heard of the source before and there's a lot of wild stuff floating around. Has anyone seen this reported elsewhere?
posted by Nerd of the North at 9:06 PM on April 4, 2022
Successfully "evacuating" 400,000 people seems too optimistically competent for the parties involved.
posted by porpoise at 9:17 PM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by porpoise at 9:17 PM on April 4, 2022 [5 favorites]
Something a little more light-hearted: Kim Jong Un impersonator Howard X is using his likeness to help others - apparently he and a Putin impersonator helped a Zelenskyy impersonator (ETA: who even scored a gig on Zelenskyy's old show as a body double) to leave Ukraine.
posted by cendawanita at 12:21 AM on April 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 12:21 AM on April 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
Successfully "evacuating" 400,000 people seems too optimistically competent...
posted by porpoise Almost 5 hours ago [3 favorites −] [!]
The flip side of that is pretty fucking grim, so I'm going to assume the number is wholly fabricated. Otherwise this is genocide. Not hyperbole genocide, but flat grim desperate genocide. Genocide genocide: stop by any-means-necessary, genocide.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:25 AM on April 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by porpoise Almost 5 hours ago [3 favorites −] [!]
The flip side of that is pretty fucking grim, so I'm going to assume the number is wholly fabricated. Otherwise this is genocide. Not hyperbole genocide, but flat grim desperate genocide. Genocide genocide: stop by any-means-necessary, genocide.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:25 AM on April 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
After having seen some of the video from Bucha a few days ago, which I’m still at a loss of words - truely one of the most horrific things I’ve ever seen and I’m still in shock from…
This powerful photo of Zelenskyy in Bucha after personally witnessing it first hand summarizes the horrors all to well.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:47 AM on April 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
This powerful photo of Zelenskyy in Bucha after personally witnessing it first hand summarizes the horrors all to well.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:47 AM on April 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
Nearly a thousand Putin supporters demonstrated in Berlin this weekend. Likely mostly Russian-Germans. The reporter asks a few men why they're there to support an Angriffskrieg and war crimes, bombing of kindergartens etc.; their responses are 'there is no war', 'I have no problem with that' and so on.
These are people who have almost certainly been confronted with images from the war. They're not there out of fear of retaliation, they are free to express any opinion they wish.
The war crimes are not happening in a vacuum. People know, and they're hungry for it.
posted by UN at 4:36 AM on April 5, 2022 [30 favorites]
These are people who have almost certainly been confronted with images from the war. They're not there out of fear of retaliation, they are free to express any opinion they wish.
The war crimes are not happening in a vacuum. People know, and they're hungry for it.
posted by UN at 4:36 AM on April 5, 2022 [30 favorites]
anecdotally i'm seeing an massive crush of russian troll propaganda this morning in comment sections on some less metafilter-y places i frequent.
posted by glonous keming at 4:42 AM on April 5, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by glonous keming at 4:42 AM on April 5, 2022 [7 favorites]
The “Russian-Germans” (i.e., Russians with Volga German ancestry generations ago but no cultural connection to post-WW2 German society) being given German citizenship instantly, while third-generation German-born children of Turkish Gästarbeiter being denied it shows the moral bankruptcy of a jus sanguinis doctrine of citizenship. Thankfully Germany is going some way to fix this (by eliminating its ban on dual nationality, a big thing for Germans with family in Turkey), though had they only done so a few decades earlier...
Are Russian-Germans a big part of the AfD supporter base in Germany by any chance?
posted by acb at 4:43 AM on April 5, 2022 [20 favorites]
Are Russian-Germans a big part of the AfD supporter base in Germany by any chance?
posted by acb at 4:43 AM on April 5, 2022 [20 favorites]
Kremlinology, Beijing edition: from a professor of China Studies, Christian Goebel: Remarkable that #Bucha 布查/布恰 does not seem to have been blacklisted on Weibo so far. More than 24 hours later, even some high-engagement posts that don't align with state media narratives remain online.
In reply to if this is due to COVID distraction: Hard to believe. I tend towards interpreting this as a conscious decision.
His threads on the Weibo activity:
A Chinese translation of Zelenskyy's speech on the #BuchaMassacre is getting a lot of attention on Weibo now. If I am not mistaken, it is the most shared post about #Bucha on Weibo so far today. Eight hours after posting, it was shared by 2.3k and liked by 15k users
More on #BuchaMassacre narratives on Weibo. An account with only 3.227 followers posts the horrific images of the massacre accompanied by the message: "If we don't speak up for justice, darkness will make us disappear (civilians of Bucha!)". Reposted 680 times, much more often
posted by cendawanita at 4:56 AM on April 5, 2022 [13 favorites]
In reply to if this is due to COVID distraction: Hard to believe. I tend towards interpreting this as a conscious decision.
His threads on the Weibo activity:
A Chinese translation of Zelenskyy's speech on the #BuchaMassacre is getting a lot of attention on Weibo now. If I am not mistaken, it is the most shared post about #Bucha on Weibo so far today. Eight hours after posting, it was shared by 2.3k and liked by 15k users
More on #BuchaMassacre narratives on Weibo. An account with only 3.227 followers posts the horrific images of the massacre accompanied by the message: "If we don't speak up for justice, darkness will make us disappear (civilians of Bucha!)". Reposted 680 times, much more often
posted by cendawanita at 4:56 AM on April 5, 2022 [13 favorites]
Am on mobile right now, but i used to link to Li Yuan's author page on NYT in a previous thread, she's been doing the China coverage that includes media coverage on the war.
Also did a quick scroll of that twitter i just linked, a good follow on media as well. He posted about 2 hours ago that the Ukrainian embassy in China's post on the Bucha massacre got a lot of traction.
posted by cendawanita at 5:19 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Also did a quick scroll of that twitter i just linked, a good follow on media as well. He posted about 2 hours ago that the Ukrainian embassy in China's post on the Bucha massacre got a lot of traction.
posted by cendawanita at 5:19 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
...out of the impossible territory into possible but currently not probableYeah, that's pretty much how I feel about an outright Ukrainian victory. Much more likely than it seemed at the end of February but still not the expected outcome. However, the only options are not total victory or defeat; the more territory Ukraine recaptures and the more losses they inflict on the Russian military, the better their negotiating position and the faster Russia will come to the table.
But that means more than just the defensive anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons that defeated the initial invasion. Now they need APCs, tanks, artillery, missile systems etc. to push the Russians back. Supplying that sort of weaponry feels risky, but knowing what we now do about the the results of Russian occupation, not supplying it has its own, awful costs. (If you're in a position to influence politicians or other decision-makers to ramp up military support, it's one way to help prevent future war crimes.)
posted by Busy Old Fool at 5:33 AM on April 5, 2022 [7 favorites]
The US Has finally indicated that it will no longer allow Russia to use its US based bank accounts to make payments to its dollar denominated bonds. This will likely cause Russia to default on those bonds.
There are also reports of some big artillery barrages and a possible large Ukrainian counter attack in the Donbas region starting.
I agree we need a new thread.
posted by interogative mood at 5:50 AM on April 5, 2022 [14 favorites]
There are also reports of some big artillery barrages and a possible large Ukrainian counter attack in the Donbas region starting.
I agree we need a new thread.
posted by interogative mood at 5:50 AM on April 5, 2022 [14 favorites]
Zelenskyy's report to the UN Security Council on the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin is being broadcast live now.
posted by vers at 7:32 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by vers at 7:32 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Security Council Live Session (via PBS)
[these live streams don't seem to generate an embed]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:33 AM on April 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
[these live streams don't seem to generate an embed]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:33 AM on April 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
glonous keming , is there anything someone with a computer could do about that? I reckon fighting Russian disinformation at a grassroots level might become ever more important, and is something everybody can do with nothing more than a laptop.
There are hordes in every country with a Putinist mindset and strongma fantasies, and I worry the unengaged middle will be easily swayed without pushback since it is the path of least resistance.
posted by doggod at 7:46 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
There are hordes in every country with a Putinist mindset and strongma fantasies, and I worry the unengaged middle will be easily swayed without pushback since it is the path of least resistance.
posted by doggod at 7:46 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter
⚡️ Poll: 95% of Ukrainians believe in victory over Russia, record-breaking 91% support joining EU.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:42 AM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
The number of those who believe that Ukraine can win the war in the next few weeks decreased from 47% to 35% since the previous poll published on March 20.
Source: Rating Group.
A Call For Arms: The Weapons That Ukraine Needs.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:47 AM on April 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 8:47 AM on April 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
From Euronews: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that the Russian military must be brought to justice immediately for war crimes, accusing the Kremlin's troops of the worst atrocities since World War II.
The Ukrainian leader made his plea via video as grisly evidence continued to emerge of civilian massacres carried out by Russian forces on the outskirts of Kyiv before they pulled back from the capital.
The images, particularly from the town of Bucha, have stirred global revulsion and led to demands for tougher sanctions and war crime charges.
Making his first appearance before the UN's highest body, Zelenskyy said the Russian troops are no different from other terrorists like the Islamic State group. He showed the council brief video footage of bloody corpses that ended with the words “Stop Russian Aggression.”
He stressed that Bucha was only one place and that there are more with similar horrors, and he called for a tribunal similar to the one that was set up at Nuremberg to try war criminals after World War II.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:04 AM on April 5, 2022 [9 favorites]
The Ukrainian leader made his plea via video as grisly evidence continued to emerge of civilian massacres carried out by Russian forces on the outskirts of Kyiv before they pulled back from the capital.
The images, particularly from the town of Bucha, have stirred global revulsion and led to demands for tougher sanctions and war crime charges.
Making his first appearance before the UN's highest body, Zelenskyy said the Russian troops are no different from other terrorists like the Islamic State group. He showed the council brief video footage of bloody corpses that ended with the words “Stop Russian Aggression.”
He stressed that Bucha was only one place and that there are more with similar horrors, and he called for a tribunal similar to the one that was set up at Nuremberg to try war criminals after World War II.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:04 AM on April 5, 2022 [9 favorites]
> glonous keming , is there anything someone with a computer could do about that?
on this particular website (ok, it was reddit, in a "good deals for hobby X" subreddit, something normally not geo-political), this morning i flagged the comments and when i checked back later the moderator of the subreddit had deleted them all and left notes. i don't have any greater insight into ways we can all help with that sort of thing. my intention in mentioning it here was just to give folks a heads up in case a larger info-war offensive was kicking off so we can all be vigilant. it seems to have subsided where i was, but at the time it a lot and sudden, thus i became concerned, seeing it like that in a place i hadn't seen that before.
posted by glonous keming at 10:31 AM on April 5, 2022 [9 favorites]
on this particular website (ok, it was reddit, in a "good deals for hobby X" subreddit, something normally not geo-political), this morning i flagged the comments and when i checked back later the moderator of the subreddit had deleted them all and left notes. i don't have any greater insight into ways we can all help with that sort of thing. my intention in mentioning it here was just to give folks a heads up in case a larger info-war offensive was kicking off so we can all be vigilant. it seems to have subsided where i was, but at the time it a lot and sudden, thus i became concerned, seeing it like that in a place i hadn't seen that before.
posted by glonous keming at 10:31 AM on April 5, 2022 [9 favorites]
Aid to Ukraine may have turned a corner:
Czech Republic sends tanks, infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine
Hopefully it's more than five of each.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:02 AM on April 5, 2022 [18 favorites]
Czech Republic sends tanks, infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine
PRAGUE, April 5 (Reuters) - The Czech Republic has sent T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, a Czech defence source told Reuters on Tuesday, confirming a local media report.
Public broadcaster Czech Television initially reported the shipment, showing footage on Twitter of a train loaded with five tanks and five fighting vehicles. It said the shipment was a gift agreed with NATO allies.
Hopefully it's more than five of each.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:02 AM on April 5, 2022 [18 favorites]
Thread by @navalny on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
"1/14 How an ordinary Russian TV viewer (one of whom I currently am) sees it.
I learned about the monstrous events in Bucha yesterday morning from the news that Russia was convening the UN Security Council in connection with the massacre by Ukrainian Nazis in Bucha.
2/14 In the evening, the Channel One anchor explained everything. And I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes and heard it with my own ears:"
Who is Alexei Navalny
posted by 15L06 at 11:21 AM on April 5, 2022 [14 favorites]
"1/14 How an ordinary Russian TV viewer (one of whom I currently am) sees it.
I learned about the monstrous events in Bucha yesterday morning from the news that Russia was convening the UN Security Council in connection with the massacre by Ukrainian Nazis in Bucha.
2/14 In the evening, the Channel One anchor explained everything. And I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes and heard it with my own ears:"
Who is Alexei Navalny
posted by 15L06 at 11:21 AM on April 5, 2022 [14 favorites]
There's a picture of a murdered family making the rounds. Two daughters. One 17. One 3.
I won't detail further. The words "Mykolayiv, Arina, Veronica" will find it on the Googles. I advise you not to.
The next person to whine about gas prices within my hearing will get a piece of my mind.
posted by ocschwar at 11:43 AM on April 5, 2022 [17 favorites]
I won't detail further. The words "Mykolayiv, Arina, Veronica" will find it on the Googles. I advise you not to.
The next person to whine about gas prices within my hearing will get a piece of my mind.
posted by ocschwar at 11:43 AM on April 5, 2022 [17 favorites]
I want to suggest laying off the judging (more like guesswork about) of Russlanddeutschen (Russian Germans). No doubt some of them like Putin.
Similar to the Turks living in Austria and Germany who like (and vote Erdogan), and US Americans who like Trump.
Diaspora politics is not something that suits for quick black and white judgement.
Worse, here in this thread the speculations in Russlanddeutsche political allegiance follows directly upon calls for bombing Russia to "cause shame" (" We got Germany to reinvent itself post-WWII by levelling their cities, lopping off chunks of German territory, engaging in mass "population exchanges" so the population ethnicity matched the new borders, dividing the country, the indefinite presence of foreign troops on its border, the permanent occupation of the eastern quarter, and an external threat on their borders. It was about 20 years after the war ended that they started coming to terms with their past.")
WTF.
This attitude it makes me so angry i cannot articulate properly.
Snyder writes: I am getting weary of reading articles in which Americans advise other Americans about how to negotiate the future of #Ukraine. (Thread) 1/
posted by 15L06 at 11:56 AM on April 5, 2022 [11 favorites]
Similar to the Turks living in Austria and Germany who like (and vote Erdogan), and US Americans who like Trump.
Diaspora politics is not something that suits for quick black and white judgement.
Worse, here in this thread the speculations in Russlanddeutsche political allegiance follows directly upon calls for bombing Russia to "cause shame" (" We got Germany to reinvent itself post-WWII by levelling their cities, lopping off chunks of German territory, engaging in mass "population exchanges" so the population ethnicity matched the new borders, dividing the country, the indefinite presence of foreign troops on its border, the permanent occupation of the eastern quarter, and an external threat on their borders. It was about 20 years after the war ended that they started coming to terms with their past.")
WTF.
This attitude it makes me so angry i cannot articulate properly.
Snyder writes: I am getting weary of reading articles in which Americans advise other Americans about how to negotiate the future of #Ukraine. (Thread) 1/
posted by 15L06 at 11:56 AM on April 5, 2022 [11 favorites]
Listen how consonant the English word "butcher" and the name of the city "Bucha" are. This is how the Western audience was subconsciously prepared for this provocation.
That's some QAnon-grade bullshit right there.
posted by Slothrup at 12:09 PM on April 5, 2022 [26 favorites]
That's some QAnon-grade bullshit right there.
posted by Slothrup at 12:09 PM on April 5, 2022 [26 favorites]
It's not our place to judge what Ukraine should do, but sooner or later there will be an unsavory choice to be made, as soon as Russia comes to the diplomatic table with a plausible but unsatisfactory offer, e.g. "we'll call off the war if you don't demand reparations/let us keep Crimea/give us Donbas*", and Ukraine does have to measure how much they want peace vs. how much they want justice.
It's going to be a hard line for Zelenskyy and the rest of the leadership to finesse, because what the people want is pretty diffuse, and for every hardliner who wants to play hardball and bleed Russia for the terrible things they've done, there's a traumatized survivor who wants it all to just stop sooner rather than later.
But, yes, outside third-party hardliners trying to make the decision for Ukraine doesn't help anybody.
*The time when demanding Donbas would have been in the range of acceptable negotiating points is surely long past, but I imagine Russia thinks it's a reasonable one even now.
posted by jackbishop at 12:24 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's going to be a hard line for Zelenskyy and the rest of the leadership to finesse, because what the people want is pretty diffuse, and for every hardliner who wants to play hardball and bleed Russia for the terrible things they've done, there's a traumatized survivor who wants it all to just stop sooner rather than later.
But, yes, outside third-party hardliners trying to make the decision for Ukraine doesn't help anybody.
*The time when demanding Donbas would have been in the range of acceptable negotiating points is surely long past, but I imagine Russia thinks it's a reasonable one even now.
posted by jackbishop at 12:24 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
VOA's Carla Babb on Twitter
Love to know what they're training them on.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:41 PM on April 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
#BREAKING US is training #Ukrainians outside of #Ukraine including here in the US, per @SecDef and Gen. Milley. No training inside #Ukraine or #Poland, they say.
Love to know what they're training them on.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:41 PM on April 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
Listen how consonant the English word "butcher" and the name of the city "Bucha" are. This is how the Western audience was subconsciously prepared for this provocation.
That hits me like projection re: "denazification".
I'm not sure if the thread wherein Slava Malamud describes his experience of education about WWII in Russia has appeared here already, but it feels relevant to the topic of eternal information war.
posted by droomoord at 12:41 PM on April 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
That hits me like projection re: "denazification".
I'm not sure if the thread wherein Slava Malamud describes his experience of education about WWII in Russia has appeared here already, but it feels relevant to the topic of eternal information war.
posted by droomoord at 12:41 PM on April 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
What's nuts about that situation is that Ukraine isn't even the reason Russia is fighting. Or rather, it isn't the object it is directing its war at. It's fighting NATO and the EU and the US. Those are the parties it was making demands of, not Ukraine. So how does Ukraine negotiate a peace when nothing that Russia was claiming as the basis for the war was within Ukraine's control to begin with?
Neutral Ukraine was a pretext. It was 2022's reboot of Austria's demands to Serbia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:42 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Neutral Ukraine was a pretext. It was 2022's reboot of Austria's demands to Serbia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:42 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
What's nuts about that situation is that Ukraine isn't even the reason Russia is fighting.
Um, what? Putin has been very clear the eradication of Ukraine is (was?) the goal and everything that has happened since does not contradict that.
posted by mazola at 12:42 PM on April 5, 2022 [10 favorites]
Um, what? Putin has been very clear the eradication of Ukraine is (was?) the goal and everything that has happened since does not contradict that.
posted by mazola at 12:42 PM on April 5, 2022 [10 favorites]
Part of the subtext is daring NATO to stop it. It can be two (or more!) things and I think both things are true in this case. It's pretty openly turned into a proxy war but the Ukrainians on the ground don't give a fuck. So I think of it as NATO+Ukraine vs. Putin et al with Ukrainians doing all the heavy lifting and dying.
It wouldn't happen but the right thing for whatever other countries/powers Russian is making demands of tell them to go ask Ukraine or just openly leave it entirely up to Ukraine. If the deal requires concessions or resources from some non-Ukraine country then that's to be worked out between Ukraine and Russia.
Basically just make it clear that Ukraine is THE decision maker for any peace deal. I hope that's what happens but I expect to be disappointed in our leaders again. I'm curious to see how far short of that they fall I guess.
posted by VTX at 12:50 PM on April 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
It wouldn't happen but the right thing for whatever other countries/powers Russian is making demands of tell them to go ask Ukraine or just openly leave it entirely up to Ukraine. If the deal requires concessions or resources from some non-Ukraine country then that's to be worked out between Ukraine and Russia.
Basically just make it clear that Ukraine is THE decision maker for any peace deal. I hope that's what happens but I expect to be disappointed in our leaders again. I'm curious to see how far short of that they fall I guess.
posted by VTX at 12:50 PM on April 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm not sure that the postwar Germany comparisons are really that useful. There's a really big elephant in the room when you discuss the rebuilding of West Germany into a democratic, pluralistic state, and it's actually a bear.
I know Americans who served in Germany in the mid to late 1960s—staring into the Fulda Gap with 8" howitzers loaded with tactical nukes—and a whole lot of Germans of a certain age were apparently pretty much unrepentant Nazis (or at least German supremacists), but smart enough to keep mouths closed and their fists unclenched.
After all, they were the lucky ones: the unlucky Germans were the ones on the other side of the border.
So if "ol' Rad" (the soldiers' general term for German men of that certain age, cf. Johnny Reb) started giving you dark looks in the local ratskeller after a couple of beers, you could always casually ask where he had served. Im Osten? (It was always in the East. Funny, that.) And then you could nod and smile and say, well, it's a good thing you made it back.
And that basically happened on a national scale. I don't think the Marshall Plan would have worked as well as it did at reforming Germany, if there hadn't been a very unappetizing alternative right there. We're going to make you renounce all that Nazi shit, time to find some new words for Deutschland Über Alles, build a whole bunch of Holocaust memorials, but hey: we're not methodically murdering you in basements. No Siberian prison camps. We're not even going to look too hard at what some of you might have been doing during the war. We all know who the real enemy is here, ja?
I am in no way defending the Soviets, but we shouldn't pretend that the Marshall Plan worked its magic purely through the wonders of Coca-Cola and Levi jeans. The terror that Stalin and his minions inflicted on the Eastern half of Germany was the anvil against which Nazism was broken in the West.
I am not convinced that we know how to reform the civilian population of a country that's been fed straight propaganda for decades, absent a common enemy to re-point them at. And so, I think it's premature to think that we could somehow make the Russian population suddenly realize that they've been the baddies all along, unless we're willing to figuratively (and perhaps literally) point guns at them and say "here's the new script, start playing your part, fuckos", and wait for a new generation to be born and take the reins.
posted by Kadin2048 at 1:09 PM on April 5, 2022 [58 favorites]
I know Americans who served in Germany in the mid to late 1960s—staring into the Fulda Gap with 8" howitzers loaded with tactical nukes—and a whole lot of Germans of a certain age were apparently pretty much unrepentant Nazis (or at least German supremacists), but smart enough to keep mouths closed and their fists unclenched.
After all, they were the lucky ones: the unlucky Germans were the ones on the other side of the border.
So if "ol' Rad" (the soldiers' general term for German men of that certain age, cf. Johnny Reb) started giving you dark looks in the local ratskeller after a couple of beers, you could always casually ask where he had served. Im Osten? (It was always in the East. Funny, that.) And then you could nod and smile and say, well, it's a good thing you made it back.
And that basically happened on a national scale. I don't think the Marshall Plan would have worked as well as it did at reforming Germany, if there hadn't been a very unappetizing alternative right there. We're going to make you renounce all that Nazi shit, time to find some new words for Deutschland Über Alles, build a whole bunch of Holocaust memorials, but hey: we're not methodically murdering you in basements. No Siberian prison camps. We're not even going to look too hard at what some of you might have been doing during the war. We all know who the real enemy is here, ja?
I am in no way defending the Soviets, but we shouldn't pretend that the Marshall Plan worked its magic purely through the wonders of Coca-Cola and Levi jeans. The terror that Stalin and his minions inflicted on the Eastern half of Germany was the anvil against which Nazism was broken in the West.
I am not convinced that we know how to reform the civilian population of a country that's been fed straight propaganda for decades, absent a common enemy to re-point them at. And so, I think it's premature to think that we could somehow make the Russian population suddenly realize that they've been the baddies all along, unless we're willing to figuratively (and perhaps literally) point guns at them and say "here's the new script, start playing your part, fuckos", and wait for a new generation to be born and take the reins.
posted by Kadin2048 at 1:09 PM on April 5, 2022 [58 favorites]
So I guess the whole thing is just so Putin can see more destruction? Is Putin really wanting to provoke a nuclear war, and if so, why?
Based on his actions, since his words are lies even when they contain truth, what seems to fit best is that he wanted to at least get his land bridge to Crimea, maybe take the whole country for the new Russian Empire (or continuation of the old empire if you prefer), and gauge from NATO's response how much he thinks he can take another country, then another, and hopefully by the time he's gotten that far NATO will have been so weakened that he'll be able to do whatever he wants up to and including something like world domination (like the Russian "sphere of influence" encompasses the whole world or some nonsense).
I think he intended to use the nukes as a bluff to establish that NATO won't do shit because he's got his finger on the button.
I think he was always going to go as far down that path as he could get/he was allowed and at some point it definitely would have turned into a giant, potentially civilization ending conflict where the intentions at the start go flying out the window and everything gets put on the table.
I imagine that he didn't have any of that in mind 20-30 years ago. He just thought:
-Hey, maybe I can get some influence and get my hands on some power/wealth. OH SHIT that worked!
-Well maybe I can consolidate some of my power and expand my influence by doing favors for some of my old KGB contacts and together we can carve out a little kingdom. IT worked!
-Maybe I can work my way into being President....for life......
-Maybe I can shape Russian culture and the west's view of us...
-Maybe I can work my way into have absolute control of the entire government....
-Maybe Chechnya, maybe Syria, maybe Crimea, maybe Ukraine, and so on.
I'm sure I have a bunch of the details out of order but you get the idea.
posted by VTX at 1:26 PM on April 5, 2022 [8 favorites]
Based on his actions, since his words are lies even when they contain truth, what seems to fit best is that he wanted to at least get his land bridge to Crimea, maybe take the whole country for the new Russian Empire (or continuation of the old empire if you prefer), and gauge from NATO's response how much he thinks he can take another country, then another, and hopefully by the time he's gotten that far NATO will have been so weakened that he'll be able to do whatever he wants up to and including something like world domination (like the Russian "sphere of influence" encompasses the whole world or some nonsense).
I think he intended to use the nukes as a bluff to establish that NATO won't do shit because he's got his finger on the button.
I think he was always going to go as far down that path as he could get/he was allowed and at some point it definitely would have turned into a giant, potentially civilization ending conflict where the intentions at the start go flying out the window and everything gets put on the table.
I imagine that he didn't have any of that in mind 20-30 years ago. He just thought:
-Hey, maybe I can get some influence and get my hands on some power/wealth. OH SHIT that worked!
-Well maybe I can consolidate some of my power and expand my influence by doing favors for some of my old KGB contacts and together we can carve out a little kingdom. IT worked!
-Maybe I can work my way into being President....for life......
-Maybe I can shape Russian culture and the west's view of us...
-Maybe I can work my way into have absolute control of the entire government....
-Maybe Chechnya, maybe Syria, maybe Crimea, maybe Ukraine, and so on.
I'm sure I have a bunch of the details out of order but you get the idea.
posted by VTX at 1:26 PM on April 5, 2022 [8 favorites]
I don't know how to put this because I hate contributing to the whole war-gaming aspect of this discussion.
But: no one can force Russia to do anything unless they invade and occupy Russia for decades, and no one I know wants to occupy Russia. It's huge, cold and filled with weapons and crazy people, like Afghanistan x 10.000. If the Iraqis didn't welcome US troops as heros, you can bet Russians won't welcome NATO troops either. Just stop there.
And right now, it seems like the Russian people are behind their government. I am pessimistic about this. I don't think it will change, even after Russia looses in the Ukraine war.
Russia will loose in the Ukraine war. I mentioned this above. At this point, there is nothing I can imagine that will make the EU and NATO give Russia any concessions in a peace negotiation. Before the massacres of innocents, Russia might have had Crimea and Donbas might have become an independent buffer nation. I don't believe that can happen now.
It's just a huge miscalculation on the Russian side.
If the war escalates, Russia will loose. Lots and lots of innocents will die, probably including me, but this is not Russia defending itself against the Germans or French. This is Europe, the second richest region in the world, defending itself against Russia, a completely different situation. Apart from Hungary, no one here is talking about appeasement. And the US has our backs with a military that is bigger and more advanced than the rest of the world combined. The US military is not very good at dealing with urban warfare against a mostly unknown enemy, but large scale war is what it is made for.
If NATO enters the war, there will be strikes into Russia, and there will even be occupied areas because that is how war works. But still, no one wants to occupy Russia for the length of time needed to impose a regime change like that in Western Germany. I suspect that this is a more horrifying prospect to the Western powers than nuclear war, see above.
So regardless of what happens, we are entering unknown territory. We don't really know what to do now, or later. Speculating about reparations or re-education is very much fantasy. We have to focus on the immediate goals: first of all doing what we can to aid Ukraine.
posted by mumimor at 1:41 PM on April 5, 2022 [47 favorites]
But: no one can force Russia to do anything unless they invade and occupy Russia for decades, and no one I know wants to occupy Russia. It's huge, cold and filled with weapons and crazy people, like Afghanistan x 10.000. If the Iraqis didn't welcome US troops as heros, you can bet Russians won't welcome NATO troops either. Just stop there.
And right now, it seems like the Russian people are behind their government. I am pessimistic about this. I don't think it will change, even after Russia looses in the Ukraine war.
Russia will loose in the Ukraine war. I mentioned this above. At this point, there is nothing I can imagine that will make the EU and NATO give Russia any concessions in a peace negotiation. Before the massacres of innocents, Russia might have had Crimea and Donbas might have become an independent buffer nation. I don't believe that can happen now.
It's just a huge miscalculation on the Russian side.
If the war escalates, Russia will loose. Lots and lots of innocents will die, probably including me, but this is not Russia defending itself against the Germans or French. This is Europe, the second richest region in the world, defending itself against Russia, a completely different situation. Apart from Hungary, no one here is talking about appeasement. And the US has our backs with a military that is bigger and more advanced than the rest of the world combined. The US military is not very good at dealing with urban warfare against a mostly unknown enemy, but large scale war is what it is made for.
If NATO enters the war, there will be strikes into Russia, and there will even be occupied areas because that is how war works. But still, no one wants to occupy Russia for the length of time needed to impose a regime change like that in Western Germany. I suspect that this is a more horrifying prospect to the Western powers than nuclear war, see above.
So regardless of what happens, we are entering unknown territory. We don't really know what to do now, or later. Speculating about reparations or re-education is very much fantasy. We have to focus on the immediate goals: first of all doing what we can to aid Ukraine.
posted by mumimor at 1:41 PM on April 5, 2022 [47 favorites]
I am not convinced that we know how to reform the civilian population of a country that's been fed straight propaganda for decades, absent a common enemy to re-point them at.
My hope is that as Navalny says, the entire propaganda sphere is tried for war crimes and they and misinformation in general becomes the common enemy, leading to free press and speech, which will hopefully after some decades reduce the percentage of the population that eats bullshit every time they turn on an electronic device. I feel that holding state propagandists responsible is just as important as holding the man himself and military commanders responsible. If the propagandists end up being low hanging fruit for the icc to actually detain and try it could actually allow some sentiment against putin to flourish and maybe change minds. Lots of russians love and implicitly trust putin, but really don't give a rat's ass about tv talking heads so it would be a less "personally devastating" way to get some to realize they were being lied to and manipulated. It would also be..very.. interesting to see what happens in the US GOP propaganda sphere if the russian apparatus is dismantled.
posted by WeekendJen at 2:17 PM on April 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
My hope is that as Navalny says, the entire propaganda sphere is tried for war crimes and they and misinformation in general becomes the common enemy, leading to free press and speech, which will hopefully after some decades reduce the percentage of the population that eats bullshit every time they turn on an electronic device. I feel that holding state propagandists responsible is just as important as holding the man himself and military commanders responsible. If the propagandists end up being low hanging fruit for the icc to actually detain and try it could actually allow some sentiment against putin to flourish and maybe change minds. Lots of russians love and implicitly trust putin, but really don't give a rat's ass about tv talking heads so it would be a less "personally devastating" way to get some to realize they were being lied to and manipulated. It would also be..very.. interesting to see what happens in the US GOP propaganda sphere if the russian apparatus is dismantled.
posted by WeekendJen at 2:17 PM on April 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
‘Barbarians’: Russian troops leave grisly mark on town of Trostianets
The Guardian
posted by mumimor at 2:29 PM on April 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Guardian
posted by mumimor at 2:29 PM on April 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
INSIDE RUSSIA is a Russian YouTuber I've been following since the invasion began; I linked to him in another thread.
His name is Konstantin and in a few respects he may be representative of an ordinary Russian — middle-aged, Russian Orthodox, middle-class with a family — but in other respects he very much isn't, specifically in that he came to the USA for college (University of Southern Maine, a degree in econ) and then lived and worked here for about ten years before returning to Russia. He very much loves Russia and its culture — his channel, prior to the war, was about introducing Russia to a western YouTube audience.
Since the invasion, Konstantin has felt it increasingly necessary to speak out while, somehow, not running afoul of the censorship laws and putting his family in danger. His pain, shame, and despair at the invasion have been palpable, despite the restrictions upon what he's freely able to say. I've become very fond of Konstantin — he truly seems like a great-hearted man, which is a trait I admire most highly.
He's been broadcasting a livestream every day, and last week he suddenly left Moscow for Tashkent, Uzbekistan. He's assiduously repeated that this is a business trip, although I think there are some indications that it was also to provide a buffer between his YouTube videos and his family.
He is very careful about what he says, often asking his audience to "read between the lines", and he's cleverly found a way to be critical of the invasion and Putin by asking questions of the Russian government. (A very rare example of JAQing-off for the greater good.)
Today in his livestream (just ended), he addresses the most recent developments in Ukraine, what he feels about them, and what he thinks it all means:
I'd like to believe that at least a sizeable minority of Russians will become horrified and ashamed of what their country has done.
In any case, though, I refuse to believe Russians are any more bloodthirsty, bigoted, deluded, and hate-filled than, say, my fellow Americans. This may be less a defense of Russians than it is an indictment of Americans.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:02 PM on April 5, 2022 [69 favorites]
His name is Konstantin and in a few respects he may be representative of an ordinary Russian — middle-aged, Russian Orthodox, middle-class with a family — but in other respects he very much isn't, specifically in that he came to the USA for college (University of Southern Maine, a degree in econ) and then lived and worked here for about ten years before returning to Russia. He very much loves Russia and its culture — his channel, prior to the war, was about introducing Russia to a western YouTube audience.
Since the invasion, Konstantin has felt it increasingly necessary to speak out while, somehow, not running afoul of the censorship laws and putting his family in danger. His pain, shame, and despair at the invasion have been palpable, despite the restrictions upon what he's freely able to say. I've become very fond of Konstantin — he truly seems like a great-hearted man, which is a trait I admire most highly.
He's been broadcasting a livestream every day, and last week he suddenly left Moscow for Tashkent, Uzbekistan. He's assiduously repeated that this is a business trip, although I think there are some indications that it was also to provide a buffer between his YouTube videos and his family.
He is very careful about what he says, often asking his audience to "read between the lines", and he's cleverly found a way to be critical of the invasion and Putin by asking questions of the Russian government. (A very rare example of JAQing-off for the greater good.)
Today in his livestream (just ended), he addresses the most recent developments in Ukraine, what he feels about them, and what he thinks it all means:
This is how it feels right now. I feel — although I'm in Tashkent, Uzbekistan — I still feel like I'm [back in Moscow]. Because, you know, I'm Russian and my heart is in Russia. And I've started receiving so much hate mail in the past few days … The only way I can react, as I read them back, is “Please forgive us. Please forgive me.”He's very candid, even accusatory, about how the majority of Russians support the war. That said, in his livestream a couple of days ago he discussed how in the last week or so he's noticed a real change among those supporters: he's seeing them realize that the government has been deceiving them, because so little makes sense and so much is contradictory. I think only time will tell how this evolves.
Just try to put yourself into my shoes. Try to understand how I feel — what would you feel if you were, if you lived in Russia? How would you feel? What would you feel, really? That's … that's, really … I can't even understand that.
Inside my feelings are not, well, not great at all, you know. They're just the most terrible feelings. I've never felt anything like this in my life.
And the reason I'm saying that Russia is cancelled — obviously, Russia has been cancelled out of everything and we in Russia understand that. But not too many people understand that this is the beginning of the end. It's become personal.
Before it was the Russian government only: “Oh, it's not Russians. It’s not the Russian people's fault, it's Russia’s government. It’s the Russian government's fault. Russia has good people.”
The Russian government is ‘not liked’, let's put it this way.
Okay, and that was a general idea of what I heard from the west from the media. And especially from the people [I know, and in email and chat].
But things changed in the last few days ... and [still] I kept saying, “Please do not give up on us.” I kept on saying that and saying that … and my friends, I don't feel like saying that anymore.
I will not say that.
It's up to you to give up or not to give up, but I feel I personally have no right [to ask].
This is sad. You are seeing a tragedy in the making right in front of you right now because an indelible mark has been put on Russia and Russian people — not just Russian government, but the Russian people. That's my personal opinion, you know?
These are the things that are not forgiven. Easily not forgiven. First, the country. But not just the country, but the people of the country.
They must repent. They must understand. They must realize what happened, work hard on getting the forgiveness, getting that mark taken off … and I'm not really seeing that happening in Russia right now.
A lot of people, most people, they don't even realize what has happened and what is coming. They know the sanctions. They know McDonald's left. That's like pop culture and “Oh, McDonald's left Russia.” That's the sanctions to them.
It's much deeper than that and most of them still don't understand and they are not making any attempts to understand, to analyze. You know, to find out and ask themselves questions: “What's next? What are we going to do?”
And you know why? I think this is the end. This is the end to the lives that we have had for a long time, for thirty years. Good lives. Let me tell [you], in Russia this is the end. This is it. Whatever country we're going to be living in the future, it's not going to be the same. I honestly have no clue what will happen. I think anything can happen, right? Any direction, for better for worse. You name it, but certainly it’s not going to be the same. This is the end. Very sad, and the personal load again … I don't know how to explain it.
What I'm feeling, you know — a few days ago, like, you followed me, most of you followed me, my arrival in Uzbekistan, my first feelings — and I told you that I started feeling much better compared to Russia. Moscow is a pressure cooker. So much like a spring, you know. I came to Tashkent, it was so much better. I started to unwind.
Until a couple days ago — now I feel like someone just sucked all the energy out of me and that's … that's it, my friends.
I'm about to turn on the chat for the live stream. Please keep it clean: more and more there are so many new laws that limit people's ability to speak freely. There's new laws that don't allow for any contradiction to the official information, so please do not try to chat about things outside of Russia.
I know. I get so many emails: “Do you know that? Did you see that?” We watch the same media. We watch the same news. I know.
I'd like to believe that at least a sizeable minority of Russians will become horrified and ashamed of what their country has done.
In any case, though, I refuse to believe Russians are any more bloodthirsty, bigoted, deluded, and hate-filled than, say, my fellow Americans. This may be less a defense of Russians than it is an indictment of Americans.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:02 PM on April 5, 2022 [69 favorites]
Intelligencer - New York Mag
Horrors Emerging From Russian-Occupied Territory in Ukraine It’s not just Bucha.
Russian troops on March 23 kidnapped the mayor of Motyzhyn, a town west of Bucha, along with her family members. Last week, their bodies were found among others in a shallow grave.
Residents gunned down in the streets of Trostyanets.
Lukashivka — former population 288 — had come under control of a Russian battalion led by a man known as Titan, who residents said terrorized them with vicious beatings and mock executions.
A math teacher tortured in Lotskyne
posted by adamvasco at 3:14 PM on April 5, 2022 [7 favorites]
Horrors Emerging From Russian-Occupied Territory in Ukraine It’s not just Bucha.
Russian troops on March 23 kidnapped the mayor of Motyzhyn, a town west of Bucha, along with her family members. Last week, their bodies were found among others in a shallow grave.
Residents gunned down in the streets of Trostyanets.
Lukashivka — former population 288 — had come under control of a Russian battalion led by a man known as Titan, who residents said terrorized them with vicious beatings and mock executions.
A math teacher tortured in Lotskyne
posted by adamvasco at 3:14 PM on April 5, 2022 [7 favorites]
As an unfortunate counterpoint to your comment about Konstantin from the YT channel INSIDE RUSSIA, there's Sergey Baklykov, formerly of (IIRC) the >1M-sub channel Real Russia, and now Baklykov live. I won't link his stuff, but he's ben toeing the party line hard. Before the invasion was ramping up, his content was almost entirely about cultural aspects of (mostly) St. Petersburg, etc, but he did occasionally tip his hand about things like "cancel culture" and the like, and is clearly pals with a dude who got canned from a US Airline for not being able to keep his mouth shut while flying an airplane about his love for Trump, ranted about "cancel culture" and "wokeness," etc. Who moved to Russia after that because A) He probably couldn't land a job as a pilot anywhere in the US anymore, and B) He says "they have real freedom of speech in Russia" (if you align with the bigotry of the Russky Mir crowd).
My sense of the situation with Baklykov is that he was not necessarily one to swallow transparent propaganda, but when he traveled to the Donbas, and because he was involved in a high-subscriber youtube channel, I firmly believe there were DPR/state media folks who encouraged a very specific itinerary and definitely made sure he walked away radicalized about the Donbas. Before I stopped watching his streams he hardly went an entire stream without talking about the Alley of Angels in Donetsk. Now he's gone MRGA (or just a bit more mask-off Russky Mir/Russian neo-imperialist, "Russians and Ukrainians are brothers") and spent a lot of time talking about how gas prices haven't gone up (why would they, in Russia?), sugar is plentiful and there are no staple shortages (in his wealthy metropolis), and how McDonalds came back to doing business in Russia because they chickened out (not that the corporate entity was unable to keep franchises from reopening).
I think Sergey represents the mainstream of Russia more than most westerners are willing to admit. I think the huge approval ratings of Putin are inflated, but I also suspect he still has a large majority approval, and worry that Konstantin is part of the ever-more-marginalized "woke" (as pejorative) crowd who will have targets on their backs, just like LGBT folks and anyone not a fan of the kleptocracy have for years.
posted by tclark at 3:27 PM on April 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
My sense of the situation with Baklykov is that he was not necessarily one to swallow transparent propaganda, but when he traveled to the Donbas, and because he was involved in a high-subscriber youtube channel, I firmly believe there were DPR/state media folks who encouraged a very specific itinerary and definitely made sure he walked away radicalized about the Donbas. Before I stopped watching his streams he hardly went an entire stream without talking about the Alley of Angels in Donetsk. Now he's gone MRGA (or just a bit more mask-off Russky Mir/Russian neo-imperialist, "Russians and Ukrainians are brothers") and spent a lot of time talking about how gas prices haven't gone up (why would they, in Russia?), sugar is plentiful and there are no staple shortages (in his wealthy metropolis), and how McDonalds came back to doing business in Russia because they chickened out (not that the corporate entity was unable to keep franchises from reopening).
I think Sergey represents the mainstream of Russia more than most westerners are willing to admit. I think the huge approval ratings of Putin are inflated, but I also suspect he still has a large majority approval, and worry that Konstantin is part of the ever-more-marginalized "woke" (as pejorative) crowd who will have targets on their backs, just like LGBT folks and anyone not a fan of the kleptocracy have for years.
posted by tclark at 3:27 PM on April 5, 2022 [15 favorites]
The YT Channel 1420 films street interviews in Moscow. The most recent question is Do you support Putin? (uploaded today) - sometimes it's enough to see the look on their faces when they answer. Sometimes they are straightforward supporters. A surprising cross-section are not.
posted by maggiemaggie at 6:13 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by maggiemaggie at 6:13 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
There is no political opposition or critical media in Russia so the "mainstream" views tend to reflect the states position. It shouldn't come as a shock that Russians generally think that they are doing good work in Ukraine.
posted by interogative mood at 6:49 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:49 PM on April 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
Thanks to those Inside Russia videos, yt rec'd me this 4-day old video from a Ukrainian travel blogger who came home to Kyiv, and here's his slice of life video.
And I think, for myself, to honour their spirit, if they can keep going with actual missiles and other armaments going off around them, I can at least do the same and not fall into despair and anxiety especially when physical harm is so far away from me. I have even more space to keep my head when I think about what we can do next, so I should.
posted by cendawanita at 8:39 PM on April 5, 2022 [20 favorites]
And I think, for myself, to honour their spirit, if they can keep going with actual missiles and other armaments going off around them, I can at least do the same and not fall into despair and anxiety especially when physical harm is so far away from me. I have even more space to keep my head when I think about what we can do next, so I should.
posted by cendawanita at 8:39 PM on April 5, 2022 [20 favorites]
In any case, though, I refuse to believe Russians are any more bloodthirsty, bigoted, deluded, and hate-filled than, say, my fellow Americans. This may be less a defense of Russians than it is an indictment of Americans.
This. The problem is similar in both countries. The people who are determined to exercise political power, the people who would crawl over broken glass to vote for cruelty against the other. They are the bloodthirsty, bigoted, deluded and hate-filled. I see little to no difference between the ethnic Russian middle aged Putin supporters and the boomer Trump fanatics here. This ugly, toxic, ethnic, patriarchal, nationalist fascism that permeates both cultures and poisons their minds from the inside out.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:02 PM on April 5, 2022 [35 favorites]
This. The problem is similar in both countries. The people who are determined to exercise political power, the people who would crawl over broken glass to vote for cruelty against the other. They are the bloodthirsty, bigoted, deluded and hate-filled. I see little to no difference between the ethnic Russian middle aged Putin supporters and the boomer Trump fanatics here. This ugly, toxic, ethnic, patriarchal, nationalist fascism that permeates both cultures and poisons their minds from the inside out.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:02 PM on April 5, 2022 [35 favorites]
It's going to be difficult to talk about and feelings will be hurt. I hope we can find a balance; Putin's cult needs to be spoken about, inside Russia and in the diaspora. But of course we should avoid dull generalisations and prejudice. Russian propaganda has cleverly (I guess?) interwoven the two.
posted by UN at 9:20 PM on April 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by UN at 9:20 PM on April 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Tucker Carlson talks about many things, surely it has no relevance as to whether Putin's cult in Russia, eastern Ukraine or Germany should be spoken about.
posted by UN at 9:56 PM on April 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by UN at 9:56 PM on April 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
A reckoning with the Mosleys and Quislings in our societies is a project for the near future.
posted by Dysk at 3:17 AM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 3:17 AM on April 6, 2022 [9 favorites]
More from Kamil Galeev. Thread Reader version - Here
First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions
posted by adamvasco at 4:50 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
First I'll discuss why Russia *is* losing. Then I'll give my version of how it could happen. The key to understanding lies in the Soviet/Russian military doctrine. It gives context for current events and helps to predict further Russian actions
posted by adamvasco at 4:50 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Putin's cult needs to be spoken about, inside Russia and in the diaspora.
A couple years ago I read a journalist that knew (was from?) a smaller town far from Moscow, which was for all standards the prototypical hovel level living. Then she was away for 20ish years for all the political and practical reasons. When she went to report on the state of the town she gets off the train and sees... Forever 21, and a fairly modern town. Putin has brought a some or a lot of the benefits of contemporary tech at least given credit for pulling up standards of living or at least the aspiration. For millions a legitimate hero/benefactor.
So there will be many otherwise good folks that will not want to think ill of him. For all the problematic issues around Chechnya (false flag bombings), few anywhere were on the side of the Chechens.
Ukraine may be Putin's 'bridge too far', wrong and evil on so many levels but not un-complex. The journalists, all of us, need to be as accurate as possible.
posted by sammyo at 5:43 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
A couple years ago I read a journalist that knew (was from?) a smaller town far from Moscow, which was for all standards the prototypical hovel level living. Then she was away for 20ish years for all the political and practical reasons. When she went to report on the state of the town she gets off the train and sees... Forever 21, and a fairly modern town. Putin has brought a some or a lot of the benefits of contemporary tech at least given credit for pulling up standards of living or at least the aspiration. For millions a legitimate hero/benefactor.
So there will be many otherwise good folks that will not want to think ill of him. For all the problematic issues around Chechnya (false flag bombings), few anywhere were on the side of the Chechens.
Ukraine may be Putin's 'bridge too far', wrong and evil on so many levels but not un-complex. The journalists, all of us, need to be as accurate as possible.
posted by sammyo at 5:43 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Now that Ukraine has retaken Chernobyl, drone footage of the Russian trenches and fighting positions has appeared. Felt like this would be of interest considering the hot discussion from before.
There's a reply tweet there that has a map overlaying the locations of the trenches on a radiation map. If that is correct, they picked basically the worst place possible in the area to dig.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
There's a reply tweet there that has a map overlaying the locations of the trenches on a radiation map. If that is correct, they picked basically the worst place possible in the area to dig.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think Americans (and to some extent, other citizens of "Western" powers) are so used to wars of choice - and to the US and UK at least, even WWII was a war of choice - that we have a completely inadequate framework for thinking about this.
We are used to being the dominant power we apply a framework of justice. That is possible when one power is utterly dominant, either the justice applies to "us" and we hold ourselves accountable (or not) or the justice is to be applied to others. The thing is, this only works when there is an executive of some sort which holds absolute or nearly absolute monopoly on the effective use of force - we can then consider what kind of judicial structure can either constrain that monopoly / punish its excesses or instruct it to deliver punishment on third parties.
There can be no "justice" applied externally to a nuclear power.
Any kind of thinking about how Russia is going to be de-Putinised is a preposterous fantasy. You will note that amidst the horrific massacres of his own people, Zelenskyy is continuing negotiations, he even noted the other day that Ukraine would consider return to the pre-war borders a victory (although his aims continue to be return of all territory). That's because he is not a fighting a fantasy war of choice but a very real war for survival so he needs to simultaneously keep his people's spirits up and start to prepare them for what he thinks he might have to agree to. If he can say that hours after actually being in Bucha, I think we can probably refrain from fantastical ideas of occupation triggered by reading about it.
posted by atrazine at 5:56 AM on April 6, 2022 [42 favorites]
We are used to being the dominant power we apply a framework of justice. That is possible when one power is utterly dominant, either the justice applies to "us" and we hold ourselves accountable (or not) or the justice is to be applied to others. The thing is, this only works when there is an executive of some sort which holds absolute or nearly absolute monopoly on the effective use of force - we can then consider what kind of judicial structure can either constrain that monopoly / punish its excesses or instruct it to deliver punishment on third parties.
There can be no "justice" applied externally to a nuclear power.
Any kind of thinking about how Russia is going to be de-Putinised is a preposterous fantasy. You will note that amidst the horrific massacres of his own people, Zelenskyy is continuing negotiations, he even noted the other day that Ukraine would consider return to the pre-war borders a victory (although his aims continue to be return of all territory). That's because he is not a fighting a fantasy war of choice but a very real war for survival so he needs to simultaneously keep his people's spirits up and start to prepare them for what he thinks he might have to agree to. If he can say that hours after actually being in Bucha, I think we can probably refrain from fantastical ideas of occupation triggered by reading about it.
posted by atrazine at 5:56 AM on April 6, 2022 [42 favorites]
I'm surprised that I haven't seen much discussion in the news about one option for reducing Russia's revenues and Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas, a tariff on Russian oil and gas.
This would simultaneously serve to decrease Russian oil and gas consumption and decrease Russia's revenues.
It seems like an obvious move, and much more economically and politically feasible in the short term than an outright ban on Russian oil and gas in Europe. I'm surprised it hasn't been done already and isn't getting more public discussion.
posted by Reverend John at 7:00 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
This would simultaneously serve to decrease Russian oil and gas consumption and decrease Russia's revenues.
It seems like an obvious move, and much more economically and politically feasible in the short term than an outright ban on Russian oil and gas in Europe. I'm surprised it hasn't been done already and isn't getting more public discussion.
posted by Reverend John at 7:00 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Well, the ENTIRE subtext has been daring NATO to stop it. But NATO can't do anything because of $REASONS.
We're not talking about nuclear war in the main thread; fine. Could we also not trivialize it here, then?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:32 AM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
We're not talking about nuclear war in the main thread; fine. Could we also not trivialize it here, then?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:32 AM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
acb, a few days ago:
From what I understand, the Putin regime cultivates a number of tame extremists purely as examples to demonstrate that Putin is the least-worst alternative, the wise moderate holding back the real fanatics. Perhaps the best-known one is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, known for ranting about wanting to nuke the entire filthy non-Russian world, and sitting in the Duma under the deliberately ironic banner of the “Liberal Democratic Party”.
Today: Putin's ultranationalist ally and clown Zhirinovsky dies at 75 (BBC)
To quote Clarence Darrow, "I have never killed any one, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction."
posted by Major Clanger at 7:39 AM on April 6, 2022 [19 favorites]
From what I understand, the Putin regime cultivates a number of tame extremists purely as examples to demonstrate that Putin is the least-worst alternative, the wise moderate holding back the real fanatics. Perhaps the best-known one is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, known for ranting about wanting to nuke the entire filthy non-Russian world, and sitting in the Duma under the deliberately ironic banner of the “Liberal Democratic Party”.
Today: Putin's ultranationalist ally and clown Zhirinovsky dies at 75 (BBC)
To quote Clarence Darrow, "I have never killed any one, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction."
posted by Major Clanger at 7:39 AM on April 6, 2022 [19 favorites]
Pro-Russia social media accounts claimed the Bucha massacre was a lie, then the result of a Ukrainian mistake, then faked and now a false flag. (This cycling through narratives reminds me of how G-gate supporters would try multiple arguments and talking points, then report back to their chat servers on which ones gained the most traction and double down on them.)
If you're spreading disinformation, it's an effective strategy to cycle your claims; opponents have to debunk each in turn (which generally takes more time than making the claim) and if they don't you can assert they don't contest your point. Since your opponents are interested in what's true rather than what 'works', they find it difficult to use this technique against you.
However, descriptions like the one above demonstrating the stages of disinformation are probably very persuasive for the genuinely undecided.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 7:45 AM on April 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
If you're spreading disinformation, it's an effective strategy to cycle your claims; opponents have to debunk each in turn (which generally takes more time than making the claim) and if they don't you can assert they don't contest your point. Since your opponents are interested in what's true rather than what 'works', they find it difficult to use this technique against you.
However, descriptions like the one above demonstrating the stages of disinformation are probably very persuasive for the genuinely undecided.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 7:45 AM on April 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
>>Now that Ukraine has retaken Chernobyl, drone footage of the Russian trenches and fighting positions has
>>appeared. Felt like this would be of interest considering the hot discussion from before.
>There's a reply tweet there that has a map overlaying the locations of the trenches on a radiation map. If that is
>correct, they picked basically the worst place possible in the area to dig.
Link
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 7:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
>>appeared. Felt like this would be of interest considering the hot discussion from before.
>There's a reply tweet there that has a map overlaying the locations of the trenches on a radiation map. If that is
>correct, they picked basically the worst place possible in the area to dig.
Link
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 7:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
If you're spreading disinformation, it's an effective strategy to cycle your claims; opponents have to debunk each in turn (which generally takes more time than making the claim) and if they don't you can assert they don't contest your point. Since your opponents are interested in what's true rather than what 'works', they find it difficult to use this technique against you.
We've seen this playbook a lot recently. Has it been formalized anywhere, or is this simply an evolution of fascist thought that is particularly potent in the social media age?
posted by OHenryPacey at 7:56 AM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
We've seen this playbook a lot recently. Has it been formalized anywhere, or is this simply an evolution of fascist thought that is particularly potent in the social media age?
posted by OHenryPacey at 7:56 AM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
We've seen this playbook a lot recently. Has it been formalized anywhere, or is this simply an evolution of fascist thought that is particularly potent in the social media age?
Gish Gallop is usually the modernish term applied to bad-faith debate, of just firehosing bad argument after bad argument to manipulate the optics for low-info audience by way of wasting the opponents' time and tying them up in knots of increasingly complex responses to simpler falsehoods. It's pretty extensible to larger-scale false propaganda and wrestling with responses to it.
Interesting bit in that wikipedia blurb: "If a debater is familiar with an opponent who is known to use the Gish gallop, the technique may be countered by pre-empting and refuting the opponent's commonly used arguments before the opponent has an opportunity to launch into a Gish gallop." Notice how in the immediate lead-up and early days of the war, the US administration made a point of repeatedly and immediately stating what Russia was doing, what it was just about to spin "training exercises" and troop buildup movements as, etc.
posted by Drastic at 8:12 AM on April 6, 2022 [32 favorites]
Gish Gallop is usually the modernish term applied to bad-faith debate, of just firehosing bad argument after bad argument to manipulate the optics for low-info audience by way of wasting the opponents' time and tying them up in knots of increasingly complex responses to simpler falsehoods. It's pretty extensible to larger-scale false propaganda and wrestling with responses to it.
Interesting bit in that wikipedia blurb: "If a debater is familiar with an opponent who is known to use the Gish gallop, the technique may be countered by pre-empting and refuting the opponent's commonly used arguments before the opponent has an opportunity to launch into a Gish gallop." Notice how in the immediate lead-up and early days of the war, the US administration made a point of repeatedly and immediately stating what Russia was doing, what it was just about to spin "training exercises" and troop buildup movements as, etc.
posted by Drastic at 8:12 AM on April 6, 2022 [32 favorites]
A Russian teacher is facing 10 years in jail after she was secretly videoed in class answering questions by saying Ukraine was a sovereign state that Russia was trying to overthrow, and expressed disapproval of the framing of the Mariupol maternity hospital bombing as a Ukrainian false flag.
From a Ukrainian youtuber interviewing and filming captured Russian soldiers calling their family (with consent):
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:15 AM on April 6, 2022 [32 favorites]
She believes one of the parents of her pupils encouraged their child to record her after Gen earlier made “small” anti-war remarks during class. “This situation is terrible. It has been very hard on me personally. But it’s also crazy to see how everyone around me, the vast majority of people that I know, people I considered friends, are supporting Russia in this conflict.”And this:
Kolesnikov said he had been approached by “many university professors” who said they were scared to mention the “Ukrainian subject”. “They say that students are trying to provoke them into speaking about the conflict just to denounce them.”It definitely looks like Russia is going full totalitarian, and a return to Stalinist/Stasi-style denunciations (including by children!) of adults who don't toe the official state propaganda line at all times, along with the ever greater state propaganda and arresting and threatening of anyone that is even suspected of being a 'dissident'. Whatever we might feel about Russians individually, they are being turned into fully compliant or even zealot supporters of the state in very large numbers.
From a Ukrainian youtuber interviewing and filming captured Russian soldiers calling their family (with consent):
“Often a Russian mother does not ask her son about his health, but immediately tells us the propaganda she was told on Russian television. They have a TV instead of a brain.”I don't think this is going to be over any time soon.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:15 AM on April 6, 2022 [32 favorites]
John Sweeney #KyivDiary Day 42
How to show the reality of war?
''In Bucha I saw a man who had been executed with a bullet through his forehead. These are WarCrimes. It’s necessary for comfortable ppl. in comfortable places to see the truth of war.“
Eisenhower wanted to see the atrocities in Germany because he said someday it would denied & accounts of it would be propaganda.
posted by adamvasco at 8:18 AM on April 6, 2022 [14 favorites]
How to show the reality of war?
''In Bucha I saw a man who had been executed with a bullet through his forehead. These are WarCrimes. It’s necessary for comfortable ppl. in comfortable places to see the truth of war.“
Eisenhower wanted to see the atrocities in Germany because he said someday it would denied & accounts of it would be propaganda.
posted by adamvasco at 8:18 AM on April 6, 2022 [14 favorites]
Has it been formalized anywhere
From the observer's perspective, there's definitely a strong current academic interest in studying -- including formally modeling -- the 'lifecycle' of disinformation, misinformation and etc; most of it focused on social media and 'fake news.' ('So hot right now,' grant money etc.) The idea also exists in medical literature re disinformation spreading faster than its correction. Lots of stuff on the academic gateways if you have access.
(Given popular interest after years of Infowars, Q-Anon, Jan. 6 and etc there are a number of podcasts dedicated to following various parts of the disinfo scene too.)
I'd expect it to be a concept in intentional military psychological operations and state-run propaganda, although I don't know where you'd go looking for exposition of stuff like that, aside from historical material. Maybe there are power-points or military term papers floating around.
There's also the variations on the idea, 'a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth gets its boots on.' (Virgil in the Aeneid: "No other evil we know is faster than Rumor..." Or, The Band.) The old sayings are only moreso with instant mass and social media.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:23 AM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
From the observer's perspective, there's definitely a strong current academic interest in studying -- including formally modeling -- the 'lifecycle' of disinformation, misinformation and etc; most of it focused on social media and 'fake news.' ('So hot right now,' grant money etc.) The idea also exists in medical literature re disinformation spreading faster than its correction. Lots of stuff on the academic gateways if you have access.
(Given popular interest after years of Infowars, Q-Anon, Jan. 6 and etc there are a number of podcasts dedicated to following various parts of the disinfo scene too.)
I'd expect it to be a concept in intentional military psychological operations and state-run propaganda, although I don't know where you'd go looking for exposition of stuff like that, aside from historical material. Maybe there are power-points or military term papers floating around.
There's also the variations on the idea, 'a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth gets its boots on.' (Virgil in the Aeneid: "No other evil we know is faster than Rumor..." Or, The Band.) The old sayings are only moreso with instant mass and social media.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:23 AM on April 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
New sanctions from US, EU, and G7:
Sberbank is blocked from the global financial system
Alfa Bank is blocked from the global financial system
Sanctions on Putin's kids, Lavrov's wife and daughter, and the members of Russia's Security Council, about 140 people in total
The White House also announced the US specific sanctions:
Prohibition on new Russian investment by US persons (citizens and PRs)
No more debt servicing using funds under US jurisdiction
They're going in really hard. Russia now has a choice to make regarding its next round of debt repayments and the clock is already ticking on a 30-day period to pay a half billion 2022 maturity and $84 million on a 2042 coupon. It will need to liquidate either foreign currency that's not in the US/EU/G7 financial system already or its gold reserves. This will also probably severely constrain its efforts to prop up the ruble. The other thing is that post-default negotiations will be incredibly difficult if not impossible due to the war further clusterfucking the situation and causing current holders of Russian debt to just bail ASAP.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:39 AM on April 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Sberbank is blocked from the global financial system
Alfa Bank is blocked from the global financial system
Sanctions on Putin's kids, Lavrov's wife and daughter, and the members of Russia's Security Council, about 140 people in total
The White House also announced the US specific sanctions:
Prohibition on new Russian investment by US persons (citizens and PRs)
No more debt servicing using funds under US jurisdiction
They're going in really hard. Russia now has a choice to make regarding its next round of debt repayments and the clock is already ticking on a 30-day period to pay a half billion 2022 maturity and $84 million on a 2042 coupon. It will need to liquidate either foreign currency that's not in the US/EU/G7 financial system already or its gold reserves. This will also probably severely constrain its efforts to prop up the ruble. The other thing is that post-default negotiations will be incredibly difficult if not impossible due to the war further clusterfucking the situation and causing current holders of Russian debt to just bail ASAP.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:39 AM on April 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Business Insider: Hungary's authoritarian leader breaks with the EU, saying he'll pay for Russian gas in rubles
Hungary's authoritarian prime minister has broken ranks with the European Union, saying that he will pay for Russian gas in rubles amid Russian President Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
"We don't have any difficulty paying in rubles. If the Russians ask us to, we pay in rubles," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told reporters on Wednesday, according to a tweet by Hungary's international spokesman Zoltan Kovacs.
The only major Russian bank with access to the global financial system still is Gazprombank. I dare say Scholz has been the sticking point on taking them out of the global financial system. At this point I think they need to impound all the energy revenue in an oil-for-food style arrangement and dare Russia to turn off the tap.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:52 AM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:52 AM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
I half expect to see Hungarian troops besieging Lviv within six months.
posted by acb at 8:54 AM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:54 AM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
"We don't have any difficulty paying in rubles. If the Russians ask us to, we pay in rubles," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told reporters on Wednesday, according to a tweet by Hungary's international spokesman Zoltan Kovacs.
And of course those roubles will first be purchased with dollars or euro. Orbán has become Putin's money-changer.
War on the Rocks, 4/6/22 -- A MIXED BAG: PUTIN’S UKRAINE WAR AND THE FIGHT AGAINST EUROPE’S AUTHORITARIANS (Mason Richey)
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:57 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
And of course those roubles will first be purchased with dollars or euro. Orbán has become Putin's money-changer.
War on the Rocks, 4/6/22 -- A MIXED BAG: PUTIN’S UKRAINE WAR AND THE FIGHT AGAINST EUROPE’S AUTHORITARIANS (Mason Richey)
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:57 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
There can be no "justice" applied externally to a nuclear power. [...] Any kind of thinking about how Russia is going to be de-Putinised is a preposterous fantasy.
I generally agree with these points, but we should be careful not to take from them that nothing can be done. It is not practical for the US/NATO or even Europe generally to go into Russia and depose Putin—granted. (This may, in the end, not matter that much; the dude may have invaded Ukraine because he has six different kinds of ass cancer or something. Healthy people don't take stinking baths in reindeer-antler soup or have a cavalcade of specialist physicians following them around everywhere, both of which he is alleged to do. God may be working where man cannot.)
But what the rest of the world can do, is take a hard look at Ukraine overall, and the atrocities in Bucha, and those yet to be discovered but which have surely taken place, and say "you know what? Maybe Russia should not have a modern military," and basically take their toys away for a generation.
Through persistent sanctions, the world can—and, IMO, should—turn Russia into an autarchy. If we (really: the goddamn Germans) must have their gas, then they should get it on terms like Iraq used to, in return for food, which they will get enough of to keep their population out of severe famine. But that's it. No imports of critical raw materials like cobalt or lithium. No silicon chips. No photolithograph machinery. If they want it, they'll have to build it themselves, entirely domestically, and they'll have to do it with themselves as the only market, because nobody should be buying any finished goods from them, either. Not a single fucking nesting doll. (I'm sure they make those in Ukraine too; the world will not suffer any great loss.)
The Russians don't make anything that the world particularly needs anymore—just rockets that are rapidly becoming obsolete, diamonds (which we could crush the market for by making it illegal to advertise mined diamonds as different from or superior to lab-made diamonds in US/EUR). Their software industry? Ban their products; don't let anything with a single line of Russian-owned code run on or in any government network in the civilized world. The US basically dropped the axe on Kaspersky; time to do the same for any other Russian tech firm. If Russian programmers want to work, they can leave Russia and renounce their citizenship—if any other country will have them. If not... well, I'm sure there are still some books around on vacuum tube repair, because that's all they're going to be working with for a while. (If that—I think most of the Soviet tech industry was in Ukraine and other western WP states. Oops.)
By destroying their economy and industrial base, they will lose the capability of fielding a modern military. Yes, they will probably still have nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons in their most basic configurations are 1930s/40s technology, and even "high tech" ones are mostly 1960s. So they will still have that, because nuclear weapons are very hard to take away from a state that has achieved them, and the Soviets were careful to keep the core nuclear facilities in Mother Russia. Someday, the world may figure out how to denuclearize a state against its will. If we do, they'll probably find out sharply.
But they won't have much conventional capacity to threaten their neighbors or destabilize the world, without a high-tech economy (in US jargon, a "defense-industrial base") to produce all the necessary parts. Without modern radars and ECM, their planes may still fly, but they'll be horrendously vulnerable to modern weapons and electronic warfare. Their tanks will be torn apart by cheap disposable ATGMs, unable to deploy the active countermeasures that will be the hallmark of the next stage of armored vehicle evolution. (The next generation of tanks will probably feature much lighter armor, higher speeds, bigger guns, and more active countermeasures, since missiles have now demonstrated an ability to piece enough steel plate that it basically isn't worth carrying around.) Their infantrymen will die fearfully in the night, unable to see adversaries with modern night vision and infrared optics, and they will do so silently, without modern digital communications. And that's without even getting into the robots and UAVs that will probably dominate the battlefield and are basically impossible to build without silicon and IP from the First World.
What Russians should understand is that the world will move on, but it will do so without them. And if it takes them a generation to de-Putinize themselves, so be it—we can wait.
There will be challenges in doing this. The Chinese, in particular, are notedly lacking in moral qualms about selling technology to other states. I suspect that they will demand a quid pro quo with the West in exchange for ostracizing Russia. (If I was the Chinese, I'd more or less demand that the West stop calling the Uighur genocide a "genocide" in exchange for punishing Russia for its genocide. Not sure how to do the moral calculus on that one.) The North Koreans and the Russians will undoubtedly collaborate as pariahs, and every tinpot dictator will probably threaten to trade with the Russians as a point of leverage with the West. It just means that the West will need to be more careful with technology and IP transfers to nondemocratic states, which is something we should have been doing for the last half-century or so, except we let ourselves get dragged around by the wallet.
And that, of course, is the greatest challenge of all: the West will need to do its own "self-cleansing", of Russian lucre and influence. The press needs to take the kid gloves off, and start naming names and showing receipts. Taking money from Russia needs to have the same stink as being paid in Nazi war gold.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:10 AM on April 6, 2022 [20 favorites]
I generally agree with these points, but we should be careful not to take from them that nothing can be done. It is not practical for the US/NATO or even Europe generally to go into Russia and depose Putin—granted. (This may, in the end, not matter that much; the dude may have invaded Ukraine because he has six different kinds of ass cancer or something. Healthy people don't take stinking baths in reindeer-antler soup or have a cavalcade of specialist physicians following them around everywhere, both of which he is alleged to do. God may be working where man cannot.)
But what the rest of the world can do, is take a hard look at Ukraine overall, and the atrocities in Bucha, and those yet to be discovered but which have surely taken place, and say "you know what? Maybe Russia should not have a modern military," and basically take their toys away for a generation.
Through persistent sanctions, the world can—and, IMO, should—turn Russia into an autarchy. If we (really: the goddamn Germans) must have their gas, then they should get it on terms like Iraq used to, in return for food, which they will get enough of to keep their population out of severe famine. But that's it. No imports of critical raw materials like cobalt or lithium. No silicon chips. No photolithograph machinery. If they want it, they'll have to build it themselves, entirely domestically, and they'll have to do it with themselves as the only market, because nobody should be buying any finished goods from them, either. Not a single fucking nesting doll. (I'm sure they make those in Ukraine too; the world will not suffer any great loss.)
The Russians don't make anything that the world particularly needs anymore—just rockets that are rapidly becoming obsolete, diamonds (which we could crush the market for by making it illegal to advertise mined diamonds as different from or superior to lab-made diamonds in US/EUR). Their software industry? Ban their products; don't let anything with a single line of Russian-owned code run on or in any government network in the civilized world. The US basically dropped the axe on Kaspersky; time to do the same for any other Russian tech firm. If Russian programmers want to work, they can leave Russia and renounce their citizenship—if any other country will have them. If not... well, I'm sure there are still some books around on vacuum tube repair, because that's all they're going to be working with for a while. (If that—I think most of the Soviet tech industry was in Ukraine and other western WP states. Oops.)
By destroying their economy and industrial base, they will lose the capability of fielding a modern military. Yes, they will probably still have nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons in their most basic configurations are 1930s/40s technology, and even "high tech" ones are mostly 1960s. So they will still have that, because nuclear weapons are very hard to take away from a state that has achieved them, and the Soviets were careful to keep the core nuclear facilities in Mother Russia. Someday, the world may figure out how to denuclearize a state against its will. If we do, they'll probably find out sharply.
But they won't have much conventional capacity to threaten their neighbors or destabilize the world, without a high-tech economy (in US jargon, a "defense-industrial base") to produce all the necessary parts. Without modern radars and ECM, their planes may still fly, but they'll be horrendously vulnerable to modern weapons and electronic warfare. Their tanks will be torn apart by cheap disposable ATGMs, unable to deploy the active countermeasures that will be the hallmark of the next stage of armored vehicle evolution. (The next generation of tanks will probably feature much lighter armor, higher speeds, bigger guns, and more active countermeasures, since missiles have now demonstrated an ability to piece enough steel plate that it basically isn't worth carrying around.) Their infantrymen will die fearfully in the night, unable to see adversaries with modern night vision and infrared optics, and they will do so silently, without modern digital communications. And that's without even getting into the robots and UAVs that will probably dominate the battlefield and are basically impossible to build without silicon and IP from the First World.
What Russians should understand is that the world will move on, but it will do so without them. And if it takes them a generation to de-Putinize themselves, so be it—we can wait.
There will be challenges in doing this. The Chinese, in particular, are notedly lacking in moral qualms about selling technology to other states. I suspect that they will demand a quid pro quo with the West in exchange for ostracizing Russia. (If I was the Chinese, I'd more or less demand that the West stop calling the Uighur genocide a "genocide" in exchange for punishing Russia for its genocide. Not sure how to do the moral calculus on that one.) The North Koreans and the Russians will undoubtedly collaborate as pariahs, and every tinpot dictator will probably threaten to trade with the Russians as a point of leverage with the West. It just means that the West will need to be more careful with technology and IP transfers to nondemocratic states, which is something we should have been doing for the last half-century or so, except we let ourselves get dragged around by the wallet.
And that, of course, is the greatest challenge of all: the West will need to do its own "self-cleansing", of Russian lucre and influence. The press needs to take the kid gloves off, and start naming names and showing receipts. Taking money from Russia needs to have the same stink as being paid in Nazi war gold.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:10 AM on April 6, 2022 [20 favorites]
The Russian Army might be in worse shape than imagined (and Ive probably been about as skeptical about their condition as anyone since this started). It also looks like Putin doesnt trust forces that were not sent to Ukraine in the first place. 🧵Phillips P. OBrien
posted by rongorongo at 9:13 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 9:13 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Apparently Shoigu disappeared for two weeks because he was in China and North Korea begging for missiles.
According to the story, China said no while NK said yes.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:29 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
According to the story, China said no while NK said yes.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:29 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ward Carroll is a retired F-14 RIO (back-seater) whose videos are typically for the military history and flight sim crowd, but he's had some good interviews about the war; and this new one with Justin Bronk of RUSI on the air war's progress and outlook is one of them.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:31 AM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:31 AM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
At this point I think they need to impound all the energy revenue in an oil-for-food style arrangement and dare Russia to turn off the tap.
they should get it on terms like Iraq used to, in return for food, which they will get enough of to keep their population out of severe famine
Does Europe grow anything Russia doesn't make more of? Afaik, what they import is basically fruit, since fruit trees hate winter. They already banned imports for the most part, IIRC. Iraq, in contrast, is in no position to be exporting food, being mostly empty desert.
Also, we should probably think about whether the oil-for-food plan in Iraq even achieved its goals:
posted by pwnguin at 10:21 AM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
they should get it on terms like Iraq used to, in return for food, which they will get enough of to keep their population out of severe famine
Does Europe grow anything Russia doesn't make more of? Afaik, what they import is basically fruit, since fruit trees hate winter. They already banned imports for the most part, IIRC. Iraq, in contrast, is in no position to be exporting food, being mostly empty desert.
Also, we should probably think about whether the oil-for-food plan in Iraq even achieved its goals:
the GAO estimates that the Saddam Hussein regime generated $10.1 billion in illegal revenues...There's scandalously few countries that successfully stuck to the plan, and given Russia's invlovement as facilitator, I don't see how this wouldn't be a repeat.
posted by pwnguin at 10:21 AM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Here's a 2020 article by two (married?) USDA research economists that was published the Russian Journal of Economics (editors mostly from Moscow). It has some figures and tables on agricultural imports and exports over time, and some discussion of the impact of previous sanctions after Crimea on Russia and on international food trade. Olga Liefert's profile.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:47 AM on April 6, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:47 AM on April 6, 2022
Does Europe grow anything Russia doesn't make more of? Afaik, what they import is basically fruit, since fruit trees hate winter. They already banned imports for the most part, IIRC. Iraq, in contrast, is in no position to be exporting food, being mostly empty desert.
The point is making sure that people don't starve but the dollars/euros can't be used to buy luxury goods or weapons. Whether the forex they acquire is useful to them isn't part of the decision tree. No iPhones until you hand in the butchers of Ukraine to the Hague.
There's scandalously few countries that successfully stuck to the plan, and given Russia's invlovement as facilitator, I don't see how this wouldn't be a repeat.
The point is to not be personally responsible for the revenue generated by a fungible good. Sure Russia can turn around and sell its oil to India and China but it's going to be at a deep discount. It may not even be economically feasible to continue production. Plus gas exports are almost impossible without infrastructure. You can throw oil into steel tanks, you can throw it into tankers or even bulk carriers if in a pinch. You can get it anywhere fairly easily using commodity infrastructure. Gas on the other hand? Tanks are specialized since you're dealing with high pressure and/or cryogenic temperatures. You need special infrastructure to compress it or liquify it. If you don't have a pipeline you need special carriers that can handle either LNG or CNG. You need special infrastructure to get it off the carrier at the other end. It'll take years to build up the necessary infrastructure which just puts further pressure on the Russian economy.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
The point is making sure that people don't starve but the dollars/euros can't be used to buy luxury goods or weapons. Whether the forex they acquire is useful to them isn't part of the decision tree. No iPhones until you hand in the butchers of Ukraine to the Hague.
There's scandalously few countries that successfully stuck to the plan, and given Russia's invlovement as facilitator, I don't see how this wouldn't be a repeat.
The point is to not be personally responsible for the revenue generated by a fungible good. Sure Russia can turn around and sell its oil to India and China but it's going to be at a deep discount. It may not even be economically feasible to continue production. Plus gas exports are almost impossible without infrastructure. You can throw oil into steel tanks, you can throw it into tankers or even bulk carriers if in a pinch. You can get it anywhere fairly easily using commodity infrastructure. Gas on the other hand? Tanks are specialized since you're dealing with high pressure and/or cryogenic temperatures. You need special infrastructure to compress it or liquify it. If you don't have a pipeline you need special carriers that can handle either LNG or CNG. You need special infrastructure to get it off the carrier at the other end. It'll take years to build up the necessary infrastructure which just puts further pressure on the Russian economy.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
So Orban won his 'election' (interested to find out how much Russia had to do with that) and now he's all-in, funneling EU money into Russia, a sanctions busting money-changer. An anti-democratic war profiteer within the EU camp.
So what is the EU going to do about it?
Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union (wikipedia)
☑ respect for human dignity
☑ freedom
☑ democracy
☑ equality
☑ the rule of law
☑ respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities
The EU has to be firm, there is no room for warmongers and autocrats in the EU. Period. Enough. It's over. After Bucha? NO MORE FLIRTING WITH PUTIN.
Orban will join the sanctions program, the question for him is: as it's partner or it's target?
posted by adept256 at 10:53 AM on April 6, 2022 [26 favorites]
So what is the EU going to do about it?
Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union (wikipedia)
Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union is a procedure in the treaties of the European Union (EU) to suspend certain rights from a member state. While rights can be suspended, there is no mechanism to expel a state from the union.Hungary already has experience with Article 7
The procedure is covered by TEU Article 7. It would be enacted where fellow members identify another member as persistently breaching the EU's founding values (respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities), as outlined in TEU Article 2.
The European Council can vote to suspend any rights of membership, such as voting and representation as outlined above. Identifying the breach requires unanimity (excluding the state concerned)[a], but sanctions require only a qualified majority.[1] The Council acting by majority may alter or lift such sanctions. The state in question would still be bound by the obligations of the treaties.
On 30 March 2020, in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Hungarian Parliament approved a bill to make the state of emergency indefinite and grant the ability for Prime Minister Orbán to rule by decree.[14] The bill also makes the deliberate distribution of "misleading information that obstructs responses to the pandemic" punishable by up to five years in prison. The bill faced opposition for containing indefinite restrictions on these powers, as well as concerns over the possibility that the "fake news" prohibition in the bill could be abused for censorship of independent media outlets.[15][16][17] As a result, European Parliament group leaders raised concerns, in a meeting of the Conference of Presidents, about the emergency measures and a majority of groups asked Parliamentary President David Sassoli to relay their concerns in a letter to the Commission and to consider activating the Article 7 procedure.[18] The rule by decree was later voted out by the Hungarian parliament.[19]It's worthwhile enumerating the list of the EU's founding values, are Hungary persistently breaching them?
☑ respect for human dignity
☑ freedom
☑ democracy
☑ equality
☑ the rule of law
☑ respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities
The EU has to be firm, there is no room for warmongers and autocrats in the EU. Period. Enough. It's over. After Bucha? NO MORE FLIRTING WITH PUTIN.
Orban will join the sanctions program, the question for him is: as it's partner or it's target?
posted by adept256 at 10:53 AM on April 6, 2022 [26 favorites]
Until recently, Poland has often taken Hungary's side in disputes with the EU (and, since the most extreme punitive measures require unanimity from the rest of the EU, this effectively allowed the two countries to block these punitive measures against each other). I wonder if that will change now that they seem to be at opposite extremes of EU countries' reaction to the invasion.
posted by borsboom at 11:04 AM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by borsboom at 11:04 AM on April 6, 2022 [10 favorites]
I think the difference is that Poland, unlike Hungary has a big modern army and has ambitions to establish itself as the leader of Eastern Europe. They also have strong cultural ties with western Ukraine and lots of shared history with Russian invasions and colonization.
posted by interogative mood at 11:30 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:30 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
Last week's On The Media (American progressive public radio show) is about Ukraine. 3 of the segments are related to the nuclear war threat, so that's for the other thread, but I thought the first segment was interesting for conceptualizing how the US fits into all this and how it relates to our own wars of choice. The argument is essentially that we should not just think of these conflicts as "NATO/US vs. Russia" or "good guy/bad guy". It's more about imperial power versus sovereign state. So:
Vietnam: Imperial power (US) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
Afghanistan: Imperial power (US) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
Iraq: Imperial power (US) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
Ukraine: Imperial power (Russia) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
So in assisting Ukraine (or not), this time around it's like the US being on the side of Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan in a battle to expel foreign invaders. I found this helpful in debating friends who resort to "the US is bad and we did (list of wars), so why is this time different?" It's different because we are on the side of the little guy.
posted by freecellwizard at 11:38 AM on April 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
Vietnam: Imperial power (US) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
Afghanistan: Imperial power (US) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
Iraq: Imperial power (US) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
Ukraine: Imperial power (Russia) invades for "reasons", which turn out not to matter once the smaller power feels aggrieved by a huge foreign power.
So in assisting Ukraine (or not), this time around it's like the US being on the side of Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan in a battle to expel foreign invaders. I found this helpful in debating friends who resort to "the US is bad and we did (list of wars), so why is this time different?" It's different because we are on the side of the little guy.
posted by freecellwizard at 11:38 AM on April 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
New sanctions from US, EU, and G7:
Sberbank is blocked from the global financial system
Alfa Bank is blocked from the global financial system
The Ruble has recovered nearly to the point it was before the invasion. I hesitate to prophesy doom here, but the Ruble's recovery means the sanctions are not only not truly working, but that the stamina of the west to use sanctions to render Russia economically incapable of prosecuting this war has ebbed.
A prolonged, significant uptick in the value of the Ruble absolutely indicates Russia is succeeding, regardless of the fact that their retreats from Kyiv and other cities would otherwise may indicate that they're not.
If the Ruble doesn't hit 400 to the dollar, and stay that way, Russia will almost certainly prevail.
The west desperately needs to not just ramp up sanctions, but enforce cold-war US-Cuba or modern North Korea-level restrictions on everything -- and I mean everything. Borders closed, visas cancelled, diplomatic missions expelled, businesses still working within Russia being fined or their corporations dissolved. Everything.
posted by tclark at 11:46 AM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
Planet Money: How Russia Rescued the Rouble
The Conversation: Why Russia has put the rouble on a gold standard – but it’s unlikely to last
The Bank of Russia, the country’s central bank, has surprisingly announced a fixed price for buying gold with roubles. With a price of RUB5,000 (£45.12) for a gram of gold, to my knowledge it’s the first time that a nation’s currency has been expressed in “gold parity” since Switzerland decided to stop doing so in 1999.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Conversation: Why Russia has put the rouble on a gold standard – but it’s unlikely to last
The Bank of Russia, the country’s central bank, has surprisingly announced a fixed price for buying gold with roubles. With a price of RUB5,000 (£45.12) for a gram of gold, to my knowledge it’s the first time that a nation’s currency has been expressed in “gold parity” since Switzerland decided to stop doing so in 1999.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:51 AM on April 6, 2022 [5 favorites]
(you can still fractionally-reserve lend on a gold standard, the same rouble just exists in two places with a debtor in between)
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:56 AM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:56 AM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm aware of some of the games the Russian central bank have been playing to keep the currency value up, and I suspect the gold standard is a bit of a red herring. I disagree with the Planet Money assessment that the interventions are creating a Potemkin Currency.
I think the Ruble's recovery on the back of sovereign debt payment allowances and fossil fuel sales allowances prove that the sanctions have holes big enough to drive nearly the entire Russian economy through.
posted by tclark at 11:57 AM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think the Ruble's recovery on the back of sovereign debt payment allowances and fossil fuel sales allowances prove that the sanctions have holes big enough to drive nearly the entire Russian economy through.
posted by tclark at 11:57 AM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
In a lot of ways the right-wingers currently in power in Poland would like to do the same as Orban (building a "second Budapest" is a popular saying, including the limits on free speech and media), but I think society's more divided here, with a stronger opposition. We also have longer experience with being occupied by Russia in part or in full (1772 to 1989 with a break between 1918 and 1939), so you will not be convincing Poles to fight alongside Putin.
Warning: heavy speculation ahead.
I think it might also go back to World War II - for all that Poland has a long history of antisemitism and pogroms, we had surprisingly little atrocities performed by Poles in the last war (relatively of course - Jedwabne was horrendous, as were all the people who denounced Jewish neighbours and refugees in exchange for their worldly goods). Possibly because we were too busy having atrocities performed on us. In contrast Hungarians were on the side of the Axis, with their soldiers performing atrocities in current Ukrainian territory, and most Hungarian Jews extradited and exterminated (75%, versus roughly 50% of the population of Poland where most extermination camps were physically located). So in Hungary war atrocities are more "things we don't talk about" than "shared victim trauma".
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
Warning: heavy speculation ahead.
I think it might also go back to World War II - for all that Poland has a long history of antisemitism and pogroms, we had surprisingly little atrocities performed by Poles in the last war (relatively of course - Jedwabne was horrendous, as were all the people who denounced Jewish neighbours and refugees in exchange for their worldly goods). Possibly because we were too busy having atrocities performed on us. In contrast Hungarians were on the side of the Axis, with their soldiers performing atrocities in current Ukrainian territory, and most Hungarian Jews extradited and exterminated (75%, versus roughly 50% of the population of Poland where most extermination camps were physically located). So in Hungary war atrocities are more "things we don't talk about" than "shared victim trauma".
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
The Ruble has recovered nearly to the point it was before the invasion. I hesitate to prophesy doom here, but the Ruble's recovery means the sanctions are not only not truly working, but that the stamina of the west to use sanctions to render Russia economically incapable of prosecuting this war has ebbed.
There's no imports, 80% of the forex coming in is going straight back out to buy rubles, and their domestic interest rate is sitting on 20%. The ruble is hanging on by the skin of its teeth and we've stopped the imports that powered the domestic production of the Russian war machine. Seems like a win even if we don't get 400 rubles to the dollar.
You can't do leveraged lending under this scheme
You missed one key thing. That's the price that Russia says it will BUY gold for. They say nothing about redemption at that same price or even if the ruble is even redeemable. If anything this is a trap more than any notion of a gold standard.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
There's no imports, 80% of the forex coming in is going straight back out to buy rubles, and their domestic interest rate is sitting on 20%. The ruble is hanging on by the skin of its teeth and we've stopped the imports that powered the domestic production of the Russian war machine. Seems like a win even if we don't get 400 rubles to the dollar.
You can't do leveraged lending under this scheme
You missed one key thing. That's the price that Russia says it will BUY gold for. They say nothing about redemption at that same price or even if the ruble is even redeemable. If anything this is a trap more than any notion of a gold standard.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
The article about it says this:
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:09 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Of course, attaching the rouble to a gold standard comes with certain “rules of the game” that Russia will have to abide by. It should be willing to exchange gold for roubles with anyone who wants to do so.It's interesting, at least. It seems Russia has been building up its gold reserves over the last ten years, and it does have a good amount in the ground too.
This was what the US did during the Bretton Woods era, and it led to the system’s demise: with US expenditure rising to wage the Vietnam war, dollar holders became increasingly nervous about the dollar’s value and sought to exchange it for gold.
Nixon’s unilateral decision to end convertibility was for fear that the US would run out of gold, which would have destroyed the credibility of the dollar.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:09 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Von der Leyen announced today that one of the options the EU is discussing is payments for gas and oil into an escrow account.
posted by 15L06 at 12:44 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by 15L06 at 12:44 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Ruble has recovered nearly to the point it was before the invasion. I hesitate to prophesy doom here, but the Ruble's recovery means the sanctions are not only not truly working, but that the stamina of the west to use sanctions to render Russia economically incapable of prosecuting this war has ebbed.
A prolonged, significant uptick in the value of the Ruble absolutely indicates Russia is succeeding, regardless of the fact that their retreats from Kyiv and other cities would otherwise may indicate that they're not.
So, my family is suspicious that there is some behind the scenes stuff going on. We build houses and so are constantly looking at materials cost (even pre war as things were crazy with the pandemic). At the beginning the price of materials started to rise rapidly obviously due to the unstable ruble / panic. The ruble (artificially) stabilized and then 2 days ago, across the board all suppliers lowered prices 20-30%. We noticed the same thing happen with household appliances because we have been considering a mini-split air conditioner and a new fridge for some time. The speed with with it happened after the stabilization of the ruble and that it was so uniform across the board is just really odd, as if it was mandated, though we haven't found any press about it.
I have no idea what it means. My best guess is that it is some first steps to some sort of price controls to set up an internal ruble economy that is separate from an outside dealing dollar economy that only the chosen can deal in? But this would probably just prop things up and lead to a straight drop off a cliff in a few years instead of a slow death over the immediately coming years as seems to be what was happening (until today's sanctions, don't know how greatly they will affect things yet)
Also had contact with a gaz prombank worker in Moscow, mid level in corporate. They said noone (thier managers) knows what to do and their assignments are to think of ways to make sanctions less painful. This was last week so before this fresh round of sanctions. At the time they said payments were going through unless individual companies decided to stop operations on their own (we asked for example because most of the plumbing materials come from italy prior to being stocked in ru suppliers).
posted by WeekendJen at 12:55 PM on April 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
A prolonged, significant uptick in the value of the Ruble absolutely indicates Russia is succeeding, regardless of the fact that their retreats from Kyiv and other cities would otherwise may indicate that they're not.
So, my family is suspicious that there is some behind the scenes stuff going on. We build houses and so are constantly looking at materials cost (even pre war as things were crazy with the pandemic). At the beginning the price of materials started to rise rapidly obviously due to the unstable ruble / panic. The ruble (artificially) stabilized and then 2 days ago, across the board all suppliers lowered prices 20-30%. We noticed the same thing happen with household appliances because we have been considering a mini-split air conditioner and a new fridge for some time. The speed with with it happened after the stabilization of the ruble and that it was so uniform across the board is just really odd, as if it was mandated, though we haven't found any press about it.
I have no idea what it means. My best guess is that it is some first steps to some sort of price controls to set up an internal ruble economy that is separate from an outside dealing dollar economy that only the chosen can deal in? But this would probably just prop things up and lead to a straight drop off a cliff in a few years instead of a slow death over the immediately coming years as seems to be what was happening (until today's sanctions, don't know how greatly they will affect things yet)
Also had contact with a gaz prombank worker in Moscow, mid level in corporate. They said noone (thier managers) knows what to do and their assignments are to think of ways to make sanctions less painful. This was last week so before this fresh round of sanctions. At the time they said payments were going through unless individual companies decided to stop operations on their own (we asked for example because most of the plumbing materials come from italy prior to being stocked in ru suppliers).
posted by WeekendJen at 12:55 PM on April 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
Von der Leyen announced today that one of the options the EU is discussing is payments for gas and oil into an escrow account.Why would Russia accept this? They need money now, not at some future time that may or may not involve the current regime (with the chance of "not" seemingly increasing if they don't get that money now). Why would it be any better, from their point of view, than just shutting off the tap and saying "MasterBlaster runs Bartertown"?
posted by Flunkie at 12:56 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
I haven't heard the 'Potemkin currency' line before, but it's very accurate and succinct. The value of the rouble does not indicate the efficacy of sanctions. Fossil fuel sales are a factor, but not the main one.
The main driver of exchange rate changes in the modern global economy is international investors in the stock and bond markets or derivative trading. None of that is happening in Russia at the moment, it has all been blocked by the government. You can't sell Russian bonds or stocks. International trading has been frozen, even domestic traders can only buy with selling stopped or severely limited. There's certainly no short selling.
The Russian market has been rigged to look OK and to make the rouble look OK. As an international investor, you can't sell your assets, so you can't withdraw from the Russian market, so you still hold assets denominated in roubles and the rouble is artifically strong.
This also means no money is coming into Russia and trust in Russian markets has been killed for years, maybe decades.
The effect of sanctions is on things like the ability to sustain the military, living standards, GDP and by those measures sanctions are having an effect, though more is needed.
I don't understand the 'gold standard' claim. Fixing the price of gold to your currency is not backing your currency with gold. Ukraine has fixed the value of the hryvnia to the dollar but that doesn't mean their currency is backed by the dollar.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 12:56 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
The main driver of exchange rate changes in the modern global economy is international investors in the stock and bond markets or derivative trading. None of that is happening in Russia at the moment, it has all been blocked by the government. You can't sell Russian bonds or stocks. International trading has been frozen, even domestic traders can only buy with selling stopped or severely limited. There's certainly no short selling.
The Russian market has been rigged to look OK and to make the rouble look OK. As an international investor, you can't sell your assets, so you can't withdraw from the Russian market, so you still hold assets denominated in roubles and the rouble is artifically strong.
This also means no money is coming into Russia and trust in Russian markets has been killed for years, maybe decades.
The effect of sanctions is on things like the ability to sustain the military, living standards, GDP and by those measures sanctions are having an effect, though more is needed.
I don't understand the 'gold standard' claim. Fixing the price of gold to your currency is not backing your currency with gold. Ukraine has fixed the value of the hryvnia to the dollar but that doesn't mean their currency is backed by the dollar.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 12:56 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
The exchange rate isn't really an accurate picture, but even so the Russian Ruble has still fallen significantly against the dollar, and then only by the Russian Central Bank implementing extreme economic measures. Before this started, a dollar used to buy 71-74 rubles, now it buys about 82-86 rubles, thats a 13% drop in a month. To save the Ruble the Russian Central Bank had to take extreme measures in terms of raising interest rates to 20% and make it very hard for Russian citizens and companies to buy or hold dollars or euros. The Russian economy is contracting and inflation is running at 23% or higher, conservative estimates expect the Russian economy to shrink 10% this year, while others suggest it could be as high as 15%. Consider that the "Great Recession" of 2008 saw the US experience at 4.3% drop in GDP.
posted by interogative mood at 1:00 PM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:00 PM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
I tried to make a new post, but I'm suffering from writers block from the intimidation because Kattullus and snuffleupagus have set the bar too high.
posted by interogative mood at 1:20 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:20 PM on April 6, 2022 [16 favorites]
The reports of Russian soldiers suffering from radiation sickness as a result of exposure at Chernobyl should be taken with a very big grain of salt.
The "Red Forest", where they reportedly entrenched and camped, is the most contaminated part of the area (other than inside the reactor sarcophagus itself) and, if these soldiers did entrench and camp there, they almost certainly were exposed to high levels of radiation in the form of inhaling/ingesting dust, soil, or other detritus. This will almost certainly eventually cause some future lethal cancers in them.
However, that is very much not the same as acute radiation syndrome, which presents in as little as a few hours to a couple of weeks. The reports in the press (none of which are reliably sourced and all of which are second-hand) all describe soldiers being treated for what could only be ARS. ARS is caused by a very high radiation dosage, and almost always by a particular variety: whole body gamma radiation.
In contrast, irradiation that causes tumors (much, much more common) can be any of the common variations of ionizing radiation — in this case, the specific risk in the Chernobyl exclusion zone and particularly the Red Forest is from alpha radiation in the dust/soil that can be inhaled. Alpha radiation is the most potent radiation but does not penetrate tissues more than a few millimeters — this is why it's much, much more dangerous when inhaled or ingested. Alpha radiation in these cases will badly damage the genetic material in rapidly reproducing cells, such as GI tract lining and lung tissue. But the tumors which result will take a long time to be diagnosable.
Acute radiation sickness, in contrast, is the result of cell damage caused directly by ionizing radiation. This, too, is usually damage to the cells nucleotides, particularly to the mRNA in the mitochondria. In ARS, however, the damage is so great and — crucially — widespread that it induces vast cell death. This is also why ARS is usually the result of whole-body gamma radiation exposure: "whole body" because ARS requires extensive cell-death and "gamma radiation" because gamma radiation is sufficiently penetrating and, by its nature, widely dispersed. ARS is characterized by sudden onset of sustained nausea and vomiting, followed by diarrhea and (if sufficiently severe or with a focused external exposure) sores and burns on the skin. The bodies more delicate or rapidly replicating cells die and are sloughed-off or otherwise disposed of by the body. It's usually the accumulated toxins from these dead tissues that cause multiple organ failure and then death.
Acute radiation sickness is one of the most horrifying and painful ways to die. As it happens, in relative terms, not that many people have suffered from and died of ARS. This includes two researchers during the Manhattan Project, a very few workers at nuclear plants or reprosessing facilities, workers at the Chernobyl disaster, a number of very unfortunate people who've suffered from radiation therapy accidents/malfunctions, and a few others. This is uncommon, as I said, because it requires a certain type of radiation exposure and a very extreme quantity of it.
The reason that there's not much gamma radiation at Chernobyl outside the reactor sarcophagus is because high-level gamma emitters are much more associated with (relatively) large quantities of very radioactive isotopes that are characteristic of short half-life radionuclides. These radionuclides will mostly have decayed into less radioactive isotopes within days, weeks, and months after the Chernobyl disaster. Even in the Red Forest, there is not a sufficient concentration of these isotopes to cause acute radiation sickness, even if the soldiers dug into the soil and buried themselves in it. (Okay, buried in the most contaminated soul for a sufficient time could do it — but that probably didn't happen to any soldiers.)
The only plausible cause of ARS that I've seen discussed is if some soldiers were exposed to some of the highly radioactive samples/waste stored on site. These are not any random radioactive material, they're highly dangerous materials that have been deliberately sequestered and stored on-site. Maybe some soldiers got into things they shouldn't have? Or maybe they were sent to retrieve things they weren't adequately warned about? That's possible, but it's not what's been reported. (Not that it necessarily would be.)
Anyway, this is the kind of claim that requires some specialized knowledge to evaluate and most people lack this. It's therefore widely disseminated credulously. Experts on Twitter and elsewhere have been very skeptical about this — and even I found it very unlikely when I first heard it — but for the most part it's been accepted as being likely true by the general audience because it certainly is the case that the Russians have been reckless at both Chernobyl and the other, larger working nuclear power plant.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 1:23 PM on April 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
The "Red Forest", where they reportedly entrenched and camped, is the most contaminated part of the area (other than inside the reactor sarcophagus itself) and, if these soldiers did entrench and camp there, they almost certainly were exposed to high levels of radiation in the form of inhaling/ingesting dust, soil, or other detritus. This will almost certainly eventually cause some future lethal cancers in them.
However, that is very much not the same as acute radiation syndrome, which presents in as little as a few hours to a couple of weeks. The reports in the press (none of which are reliably sourced and all of which are second-hand) all describe soldiers being treated for what could only be ARS. ARS is caused by a very high radiation dosage, and almost always by a particular variety: whole body gamma radiation.
In contrast, irradiation that causes tumors (much, much more common) can be any of the common variations of ionizing radiation — in this case, the specific risk in the Chernobyl exclusion zone and particularly the Red Forest is from alpha radiation in the dust/soil that can be inhaled. Alpha radiation is the most potent radiation but does not penetrate tissues more than a few millimeters — this is why it's much, much more dangerous when inhaled or ingested. Alpha radiation in these cases will badly damage the genetic material in rapidly reproducing cells, such as GI tract lining and lung tissue. But the tumors which result will take a long time to be diagnosable.
Acute radiation sickness, in contrast, is the result of cell damage caused directly by ionizing radiation. This, too, is usually damage to the cells nucleotides, particularly to the mRNA in the mitochondria. In ARS, however, the damage is so great and — crucially — widespread that it induces vast cell death. This is also why ARS is usually the result of whole-body gamma radiation exposure: "whole body" because ARS requires extensive cell-death and "gamma radiation" because gamma radiation is sufficiently penetrating and, by its nature, widely dispersed. ARS is characterized by sudden onset of sustained nausea and vomiting, followed by diarrhea and (if sufficiently severe or with a focused external exposure) sores and burns on the skin. The bodies more delicate or rapidly replicating cells die and are sloughed-off or otherwise disposed of by the body. It's usually the accumulated toxins from these dead tissues that cause multiple organ failure and then death.
Acute radiation sickness is one of the most horrifying and painful ways to die. As it happens, in relative terms, not that many people have suffered from and died of ARS. This includes two researchers during the Manhattan Project, a very few workers at nuclear plants or reprosessing facilities, workers at the Chernobyl disaster, a number of very unfortunate people who've suffered from radiation therapy accidents/malfunctions, and a few others. This is uncommon, as I said, because it requires a certain type of radiation exposure and a very extreme quantity of it.
The reason that there's not much gamma radiation at Chernobyl outside the reactor sarcophagus is because high-level gamma emitters are much more associated with (relatively) large quantities of very radioactive isotopes that are characteristic of short half-life radionuclides. These radionuclides will mostly have decayed into less radioactive isotopes within days, weeks, and months after the Chernobyl disaster. Even in the Red Forest, there is not a sufficient concentration of these isotopes to cause acute radiation sickness, even if the soldiers dug into the soil and buried themselves in it. (Okay, buried in the most contaminated soul for a sufficient time could do it — but that probably didn't happen to any soldiers.)
The only plausible cause of ARS that I've seen discussed is if some soldiers were exposed to some of the highly radioactive samples/waste stored on site. These are not any random radioactive material, they're highly dangerous materials that have been deliberately sequestered and stored on-site. Maybe some soldiers got into things they shouldn't have? Or maybe they were sent to retrieve things they weren't adequately warned about? That's possible, but it's not what's been reported. (Not that it necessarily would be.)
Anyway, this is the kind of claim that requires some specialized knowledge to evaluate and most people lack this. It's therefore widely disseminated credulously. Experts on Twitter and elsewhere have been very skeptical about this — and even I found it very unlikely when I first heard it — but for the most part it's been accepted as being likely true by the general audience because it certainly is the case that the Russians have been reckless at both Chernobyl and the other, larger working nuclear power plant.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 1:23 PM on April 6, 2022 [21 favorites]
Russian soldiers get paid in rubles. As it circles the drain, it makes me wonder if we can't just buy the Russian army.
Mass public works programs, all across the EU. After a security check you hand over your Russian passport, take your pick of destinations with your new Schengen freedom, and collect your signing bonus, say ~ six months of salary.
I don't really expect mass defections, but make it an option. A very appealing option. French wine, Spanish olives, Dutch cheese, German Beer - it's all in the gift basket. Welcome to the free world, we love you. If it's true that conscripts are seeing asphalt for the first time in Ukraine, well, wait 'til you see Paris.
posted by adept256 at 1:28 PM on April 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
Mass public works programs, all across the EU. After a security check you hand over your Russian passport, take your pick of destinations with your new Schengen freedom, and collect your signing bonus, say ~ six months of salary.
I don't really expect mass defections, but make it an option. A very appealing option. French wine, Spanish olives, Dutch cheese, German Beer - it's all in the gift basket. Welcome to the free world, we love you. If it's true that conscripts are seeing asphalt for the first time in Ukraine, well, wait 'til you see Paris.
posted by adept256 at 1:28 PM on April 6, 2022 [15 favorites]
interrogative mood: I tried to make a new post, but I'm suffering from writers block from the intimidation because Kattullus and snuffleupagus have set the bar too high.
You make good posts. Just imagine how you’d write it if you were posting about chess.
posted by Kattullus at 2:31 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
You make good posts. Just imagine how you’d write it if you were posting about chess.
posted by Kattullus at 2:31 PM on April 6, 2022 [6 favorites]
@Ivan Fyodorovich: I did read someplace that russian soldiers had broken into a locked facility at chornobyl and stolen samples and whatnot. This was allegedly reported by nuclear plant worker(s).
posted by Ansible at 2:37 PM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Ansible at 2:37 PM on April 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
The reports in the press (none of which are reliably sourced and all of which are second-hand) all describe soldiers being treated for what could only be ARS
As noted upthread, citing UA's nuclear power firm, the soldiers panicked. Coincidentally, early ARS symptoms overlap with those of anxiety.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:46 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
As noted upthread, citing UA's nuclear power firm, the soldiers panicked. Coincidentally, early ARS symptoms overlap with those of anxiety.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:46 PM on April 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ok I'll do it here is a new thread
posted by interogative mood at 3:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [17 favorites]
Russian soldiers get paid in rubles. As it circles the drain, it makes me wonder if we can't just buy the Russian army.
There's a sort of proposal that I've heard people bat around that would work like that, called the "Green Corridor".
Basically, the Ukrainians would agree not to shoot at or otherwise harass unarmed Russian soldiers as long as they were making their way towards a defined exit point (presumably on the Polish border, but maybe somewhere else). Run, walk, drive, hitchhike, ride a bicycle, whatever gets you there, comrade. Just no guns, and no loot.
At that border, they would turn themselves in, and officially become protected prisoners of war under the Geneva Convention (this is, legally, kinda important). And then NATO or the EU would basically put them up somewhere—one tongue-in-cheek although not-bad suggestion was all of the unused resort properties in Turkey that have been hurting due to COVID—until hostilities end and they can choose to either be repatriated to Russia (lol, gonna be a super popular choice) or apply for asylum in the EU. In the meantime they'd get some sort of stipend in lieu of incarceration, and be legally on parole. (You obviously can't count on every Russian soldier being a great houseguest, so this gives the recipient country the option of tossing them in the brig if they start trouble.) Hell, we'll toss in a free SIM card so you can call your folks back home and tell them how it's going, too.
The cute parts of this plan are that it doesn't require Russian soldiers to turn themselves in to Ukrainian forces (many Russians are apparently hesitant to do so, due to propaganda that they will be executed or sent to a Ukrainian prison where they'll be killed) or pose as civilians, and it would cause personnel to just... drift away from Russian positions. Every time someone walked into the woods to take a leak, they'd have the option of potentially just not coming back. And unlike waiting for troops to surrender traditionally, it wouldn't further stress the Ukrainian POW-handling infrastructure.
On a purely economic basis, you can put someone up in a seaside resort in Turkey for a long time—years, even—for the same cost as building, deploying, and using a weapon to kill or incapacitate them. It's almost certainly the cheapest way to take Russian soldiers out of the fight on a per-head basis.
And even countries afraid of "escalating" with Russia might be able to participate; I mean, who can fault you for taking such good care of POWs?
Obviously this was before all the war crimes became public; I'd imagine that unarmed Russian soldiers hitchhiking towards Poland might face a somewhat cooler reception from the civilian population now, than a few weeks ago.
posted by Kadin2048 at 3:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [34 favorites]
There's a sort of proposal that I've heard people bat around that would work like that, called the "Green Corridor".
Basically, the Ukrainians would agree not to shoot at or otherwise harass unarmed Russian soldiers as long as they were making their way towards a defined exit point (presumably on the Polish border, but maybe somewhere else). Run, walk, drive, hitchhike, ride a bicycle, whatever gets you there, comrade. Just no guns, and no loot.
At that border, they would turn themselves in, and officially become protected prisoners of war under the Geneva Convention (this is, legally, kinda important). And then NATO or the EU would basically put them up somewhere—one tongue-in-cheek although not-bad suggestion was all of the unused resort properties in Turkey that have been hurting due to COVID—until hostilities end and they can choose to either be repatriated to Russia (lol, gonna be a super popular choice) or apply for asylum in the EU. In the meantime they'd get some sort of stipend in lieu of incarceration, and be legally on parole. (You obviously can't count on every Russian soldier being a great houseguest, so this gives the recipient country the option of tossing them in the brig if they start trouble.) Hell, we'll toss in a free SIM card so you can call your folks back home and tell them how it's going, too.
The cute parts of this plan are that it doesn't require Russian soldiers to turn themselves in to Ukrainian forces (many Russians are apparently hesitant to do so, due to propaganda that they will be executed or sent to a Ukrainian prison where they'll be killed) or pose as civilians, and it would cause personnel to just... drift away from Russian positions. Every time someone walked into the woods to take a leak, they'd have the option of potentially just not coming back. And unlike waiting for troops to surrender traditionally, it wouldn't further stress the Ukrainian POW-handling infrastructure.
On a purely economic basis, you can put someone up in a seaside resort in Turkey for a long time—years, even—for the same cost as building, deploying, and using a weapon to kill or incapacitate them. It's almost certainly the cheapest way to take Russian soldiers out of the fight on a per-head basis.
And even countries afraid of "escalating" with Russia might be able to participate; I mean, who can fault you for taking such good care of POWs?
Obviously this was before all the war crimes became public; I'd imagine that unarmed Russian soldiers hitchhiking towards Poland might face a somewhat cooler reception from the civilian population now, than a few weeks ago.
posted by Kadin2048 at 3:01 PM on April 6, 2022 [34 favorites]
Ukrainian drivers may pull over onto the shoulder for hitchhiking Russian soldiers, but I dunno if they'd stop.
posted by ryanrs at 3:46 PM on April 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 3:46 PM on April 6, 2022 [11 favorites]
citing UA's nuclear power firm, the soldiers panicked
"I have been sent to the site of a nuclear disaster without training or safety equipment" is a situation where panic is the appropriate, rational response.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 4:42 PM on April 6, 2022 [26 favorites]
"I have been sent to the site of a nuclear disaster without training or safety equipment" is a situation where panic is the appropriate, rational response.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 4:42 PM on April 6, 2022 [26 favorites]
I still suspect that if anyone has ARS, it was the guys who looted from the radiological laboratory. But I definitely would not like to be the troops that sat in trenches dug into the hottest part of the site, breathing in the dust for weeks.
posted by tavella at 9:05 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by tavella at 9:05 AM on April 7, 2022 [2 favorites]
Turns out the trained guys weren't any better: "In a particularly ill-advised action, a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, exposing himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter, Mr. Simyonov said."
posted by tavella at 4:35 PM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by tavella at 4:35 PM on April 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
ChurchHatesTucker cited Trent Telenko as a valuable niche expert on the details of the Russian army's troubles in the thread previous.
I agree and would add Kamil Galeev* as well.
*I downloaded Twitter years ago, have rarely used it but, in light of this current event, I have found it invaluable because of the commentary of these two individuals.
posted by y2karl at 12:44 PM on April 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I agree and would add Kamil Galeev* as well.
*I downloaded Twitter years ago, have rarely used it but, in light of this current event, I have found it invaluable because of the commentary of these two individuals.
posted by y2karl at 12:44 PM on April 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I would really like to read the thing Galeev wrote for the Wilson Center, given the attention on his Twitter feed.
Try and google it and we're one of four links. Kinda spooky.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 PM on April 11, 2022
Try and google it and we're one of four links. Kinda spooky.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 PM on April 11, 2022
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