Links to state election results

November 2, 2004 3:00 PM

As the polls close election results come in. (A full list of official election result websites inside.)
posted by calwatch (418 comments total)

In alphabetical order:

Alabama (Secretary of State)

Alaska (Lieutenant Governor – Division of Elections)

Arizona (Secretary of State)

Arkansas (Secretary of State)

California (Secretary of State)

Colorado (Department of State)

Connecticut (Secretary of State)

Delaware (Office of the Commissioner of Elections)

District of Columbia (Board of Elections and Ethics)

Florida (Department of State Division of Elections)

Georgia (Secretary of State)

Hawaii (Office of Elections)

Idaho (Secretary of State Election Division)

Illinois (Board of Elections, decentralized, no results)
Also see Fidlar Elections Company (vote count contractor for many Illinois counties)

Indiana (Secretary of State – Election Division)

Iowa (Secretary of State)

Kansas (Secretary of State), (decentralized, no results)

Kentucky (State Board of Elections)

Louisiana(Secretary of State)

Maine (Department of the Secretary of State)

Maryland (State Board of Elections)

Massachusetts (Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division)

Michigan (Secretary of State)

Minnesota (Secretary of State)

Mississippi (Secretary of State)

Missouri (Office of Secretary of State)

Montana (Secretary of State)

Nebraska (Secretary of State)

Nevada (Secretary of State – Elections Division)

New Hampshire (Department of State)

New Jersey (Department of Law and Public Safety – Division of Elections)

New Mexico (Secretary of State)

New York (State Board of Elections)

North Carolina (State Board of Elections)

North Dakota (Secretary of State)

Ohio (Secretary of State – Elections Services)

Oklahoma (Oklahoma State Election Board)

Oregon (Secretary of State – Elections Division)

Pennsylvania (Department of State – Bureau of Commissions, Elections, and Legislation)

Rhode Island (Board of Elections)

South Carolina (State Elections Commission)

South Dakota (Secretary of State)

Tennessee (Secretary of State)

Texas (Office of the Secretary of State)

Utah (Lieutenant Governor State Elections Office)

Vermont (Secretary of State – Elections & Campaign Finance Division) (decentralized, no results)

Virginia (State Board of Elections)

Washington (Secretary of State)

West Virginia (Secretary of State)

Wisconsin (State Elections Board) (decentralized, no results)

Wyoming (Secretary of State)
posted by calwatch at 3:03 PM on November 2, 2004

You forgot Guam.
posted by Pretty_Generic at 3:13 PM on November 2, 2004

CALIFORNIA NO WORK
posted by solistrato at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2004

Wisconsin Election Results from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

County by County, and total
posted by Steve_at_Linnwood at 3:17 PM on November 2, 2004

California (Secretary of State)
posted by brool at 3:20 PM on November 2, 2004

TANK YOU
posted by solistrato at 3:21 PM on November 2, 2004

Zogby has Kerry 311, Bush 213 as of 5:00pm EST.

A little strong, but sounds good to me!
posted by xmutex at 3:25 PM on November 2, 2004

Wow. Thanks, calwatch.
posted by ferociouskitty at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2004

That's awesome.

You might as well play around with it now, while the sites still work. Cause they are going to get soooooooooo slow.
posted by smackfu at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2004

Here are poll closing times: (EST)
7PM: Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.

7:30PM: Ohio, W. Virginia

8PM: Florida, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, D.C., Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi and Oklahoma.

8:30PM: N. Carolina, Arkansas

9PM: New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, Texas, Nebraska, South Dakota

10PM: Iowa, Montana, Utah and Nevada.

11PM: North Dakota, California, Idaho, Washington State and Hawaii.

1AM: Alaska

from HERE
posted by amberglow at 3:31 PM on November 2, 2004

NYTimes graphic (flash) is beginning to show results (Ind. and KY only so far, Bush ahead with like 0.1% counted).
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:31 PM on November 2, 2004

posted by smackfu at 3:32 PM on November 2, 2004

Jesus! The polls are still open in Indiana and Kentucky (although since they've voted Republican for the last zillion years, I suppose it's a safe call--still, it's the principle of the the thing).
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:35 PM on November 2, 2004

The polls close asynchrnously in Indiana and Kentucky: Central time closes an hour later than Eastern.
posted by calwatch at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2004

Right, but the early polls in Indiana don't close until 7 Eastern.
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:43 PM on November 2, 2004

Jesus fucking Christ, keep it coming. Yeah bitch, keep it coming. Keep those fucking polls coming in. Yeah... nice and slow now... yeah more numbers... more numbers.
posted by geoff. at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2004

calwatch gets the gold star for today.
posted by whatnot at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2004

Actually, Kentucky and Indiana poll closing time is 6 PM in local time. (I just checked on their websites helpfully linked above.)
posted by smackfu at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2004

geoff. is suffering from Election Erection.
posted by ColdChef at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2004

Ah. My bad, smackfu! It is pretty confusing considering the fact that the states are in two time zones. Still, I need more coffee.
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2004

Dude, which skull and crossbones leader will win?
posted by Keyser Soze at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2004

CALIFORNIA NO WORK

true. on so many levels.
posted by quonsar at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2004

Indiana is on Eastern Time because we don't do Daylight Savings Time. However, several counties both in the north and the south do follow DST because people there commute to Chicago or Louisville, and those polls close on CST.

However, like Sidhedevil said- Indiana hasn't gone Democrat since JFK, so I wouldn't expect to see anything different tonight.
posted by headspace at 3:56 PM on November 2, 2004

NYTimes graphic (flash) is beginning to show results

Thanks for this. A click takes you from geographical to elctoral college results, shown graphically. Very nice.
posted by 327.ca at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2004

Actually, they just said on CNN that the last Democrat who won Indiana was Lyndon Johnson.
posted by Sidhedevil at 4:02 PM on November 2, 2004

Really? That doesn't sound right to me, but I wasn't old enough to vote in that particular election, so I could definitely be wrong. Either way, it's been a long, long time since we went Democrat!
posted by headspace at 4:04 PM on November 2, 2004

Doesn't look like it's going to happen today neither. Oh well. There goes the shutout.

I think it's time I started drinking. If only to protect my ulcer from the evening ahead.
posted by chicobangs at 4:05 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm going to follow this all night and I'm not going to sleep until the Supreme Court makes a final ruling.
posted by graventy at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2004

So is this the thread? Because I need to know what to hit reload on ten thousand times tonight.

Time to go make some election day enchiladas!
posted by sugarfish at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2004

Johnson won the '64 election by an enormous landslide; the only states Goldwater won were Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Goldwater's home state of Arizona.
posted by Sidhedevil at 4:12 PM on November 2, 2004

Can I not get a live video feed of some goddamn news channel? The best I can find is the BBC, but that isn't live...
posted by Orange Goblin at 4:18 PM on November 2, 2004

Wel-l-l-l-, it's seven fifteen here in Ohio. I'm done with my workout. I think I'll mosey on over to the polling place and cast my vote. By the time I get there and wait in line, it should be about 7:30. I'll probably be the last person to cast a vote in Ohio. At that point, the race should be about 50-50. Do you know what that means? That means that I, Faze, will decide this election. Me. With my one vote. Using the very thumb and forefinger that are typing this message, I will determine the fate of millions. And to think how people on Metafilter used to laugh at me, and call me a pot head, and call for my death. I wonder if they're laughing now? And who shall I vote for? Hmmm. Let's see. I don't much like Bush... But I can't stand the Bush-haters. Funny thing, as I was leaving work this evening, two of the most beautiful women I know literally got down on their knees and begged me to vote for Kerry. That's a mighty persuasive argument to someone with my low self-esteem. On the other hand, I'm worried that George Bush may indeed be the favored son of heaven. How else could someone so mediocre have ever risen to such heights, except with Divine support? Well, I'll see how I feel once I get to the polling place, and stand before the almighty ancients who run the place. I just open the ballot, and hover there with the little pin piercer, and wait and see which way the wind blows against my wrist...
posted by Faze at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004

Thanks Faze. I hope your ego survives the month-long litigation over whether or not your wind-blown vote counted.
posted by PrinceValium at 4:24 PM on November 2, 2004

I take back every bad thing I ever said about you,Faze.
posted by dhoyt at 4:24 PM on November 2, 2004

faze, if you don't stop babbling, and get to the polling place, you won't be voting for anyone. And it's already going to be not that close--sorry.

Orange, MSNBC has something
posted by amberglow at 4:24 PM on November 2, 2004

Hahaha, Faze. You're a pot head and should die.

Happy?
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 4:27 PM on November 2, 2004

Fred Barnes is now officially melting down. Bill Kristol isn't exactly melting down. Brit is looking at the Fox vote ticker and saying "This isn't much of a vote to call here (referring to pro-Republican trends from a couple of thousand SC voters)" and the little giggle is gone.
posted by Sidhedevil at 4:29 PM on November 2, 2004

#mefi's happening tonight, guys. Join us there. More efficient than thread commenting.
posted by PrinceValium at 4:30 PM on November 2, 2004

cheers amberglow - now does anyone know how to make IE always on top (since the link won't work in Firefox)
posted by Orange Goblin at 4:36 PM on November 2, 2004

this might be better orange--local NBC station live feed
posted by amberglow at 4:38 PM on November 2, 2004

The #mefi ops will kick you if you come for election talk, so be warned.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 4:41 PM on November 2, 2004

As of this minute:

KY: 42.51% Kerry, 56.69% Bush (42.5% reporting)
IN: 38.1% Kerry, 61.28% Bush (11.5% reporting)
FL: 43.05% Kerry, 56.06% Bush (1.6% reporting)
VA: 42.31% Kerry, 57.19% Bush (2.5% reporting)

There are a couple other states, but the % reporting is so small as to be inconsequential right now.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:49 PM on November 2, 2004

Stay away from #mefi.
Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.
posted by wendell at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2004

FL now 56.31% Bush / 42.84% Kerry (3.2% rep.)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2004

Bush declared winner in KY.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:53 PM on November 2, 2004

geoff., remember the warning:

"Election Erections lasting longer than four weeks require immediate medical attenuation."
posted by mmahaffie at 4:54 PM on November 2, 2004

Sorry... "projected" winner.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:54 PM on November 2, 2004

man you gotta check this analysis out
posted by Satapher at 4:54 PM on November 2, 2004

Wah! Moz left on a business trip and I don't know how to set up IRC on this linux box. Y'all are all over there, aren't you?
posted by sugarfish at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2004

CBC's Pretty Electoral Map is nice, if currently depressing.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 5:07 PM on November 2, 2004

If this is the last time I speak with you, I just want all of you, Mefi, to know that I love you with all of my heart.
posted by sic at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Wait, I take that back. New England just checked in. (Kerry 77, Bush 66)
posted by DrJohnEvans at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Mu ha ha ha!
posted by ParisParamus at 5:14 PM on November 2, 2004

Nice haircut, Paris.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:20 PM on November 2, 2004

An interesting start. In Ohio, Kerry is at 56% (83,567), Bush at 44% (65,704). That said, you can pretty much flip that result in Florida at this sec. The good news there is that none of the big Democratic counties there are reporting yet.
posted by insomnia_lj at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2004

But in Ohio have any big GOP counties reported? Or is it just all a big mess as of now.
posted by edgeways at 5:28 PM on November 2, 2004

(Hey Insomnia, are you following any political communities on LJ tonight? Which ones?)
posted by sugarfish at 5:28 PM on November 2, 2004

Back to the original point of this thread... I'm pretty annoyed that Connecticut's site still hasn't put any numbers up yet, 30 minutes after the polls closed.
posted by smackfu at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2004

Lake County has reported and I think another traditionally Republican county. I don't think people are even done voting in Cleveland yet (there are a lot of people who were in line well before the polls closed who haven't voted yet).
posted by Sidhedevil at 5:30 PM on November 2, 2004

Paris, your hitler haircut is making me feel ill.

Post Save Error #9
Use The Backup Posting Procedure
posted by Blue Stone at 5:36 PM on November 2, 2004

Gaa! I cant stand the suspense!
posted by mikojava at 5:49 PM on November 2, 2004

I am not impressed with the 'projected' game that CNN.com is playing. It's not even clear from the interface how to get to a graphical, comprehensive view of the actual results.
posted by bingo at 5:50 PM on November 2, 2004

i'm offput by the disengenuously grave meta-sidebars the tv-networks are doing about how rigorous their prediction process is.


"well," the bearded man at the computer who looks smart (probably has a phd) and harried says, "we simply cannot call new york for kerry yet because the results are to provisional."

it's effective. suddenly i trust them. suddenly i am afraid.
posted by milkman at 6:00 PM on November 2, 2004

Meanwhile, the more 'conservative' nytimes.com map suggests a score of only 34-3 Bush, hardly more comforting.
posted by bingo at 6:15 PM on November 2, 2004

Ohio (direct link)
posted by calwatch at 6:15 PM on November 2, 2004

You know, I can get IRC to randomly work...tonight doesn't seem to be one of those times. I keep getting a "Couldn't look up your hostname" error.

As to the election, I assume it's going to be a long, interesting night...leading to long, interesting lawsuits...
posted by dejah420 at 6:17 PM on November 2, 2004

that's incomplete, right? (ohio). doesn't seem to say it's incomplete anywhere, but the numbers are small.
posted by andrew cooke at 6:20 PM on November 2, 2004

Polls are starting to shift in Florida now that Broward County has reported about half their votes... and bejeezus... they've got 66% Kerry, with voters still in line at the polls. I suspect that those precincts which haven't reported in Broward are even more heavily minority. Palm Beach is just starting to report in, and they're about 61% Kerry.

Ohio now has 8% of precincts reporting, and Bush is now ahead 52-47... but many of the smaller Republican counties are reporting before the larger Democratic ones.

Nail biting time indeed.
posted by insomnia_lj at 6:22 PM on November 2, 2004

"that's incomplete, right? (ohio)"

Yep. All numbers will be incomplete for about three hours, I suspect, given that people are still waiting in line to vote in some cases. That said, the counties that report in the latest will generally tend to trend strongest towards Kerry.
posted by insomnia_lj at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2004

At the very least, the liberal media bullshit is tres thick with distortions this evening. Ohio already called by NBC? What the fuck is that about?
posted by ParisParamus at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2004

!!! THE LIBERAL MEDIA !!!
posted by mcsweetie at 6:30 PM on November 2, 2004

i love paris. let's all smooch paris.
posted by kv at 6:36 PM on November 2, 2004

Mo is really swinging, some say K is ahead in OH now, and looks like there is a legal battle coming over absentee ballots in..... FL
posted by edgeways at 6:38 PM on November 2, 2004

NOLIMIT
posted by Satapher at 6:41 PM on November 2, 2004

maybe he wants to go to bed. i can understand that.
posted by andrew cooke at 6:50 PM on November 2, 2004

I thought Kerry needed PA, OH and FL, as well as the Little Three (WI, MN, IA)?
posted by allaboutgeorge at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2004

I want to see Chris Matthews cry.
posted by ParisParamus at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004

How does this work? For instance on the C-SPAN map I see that Wyoming is coloured for Bush with 54% of the vote but only 4% of the precincts are reporting. I'm sure that it's coloured correctly but how can they predict based on 4% of the precincts? My first thought was that maybe those 4% made up the bulk of the population but I'd expect those results to come in later?

Just curious.
posted by substrate at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004

I've got the CBC map on my left monitor, and the electoral-vote.com averaged polls page on the right. If Ohio and Florida both go to Bush, like the polls predict, that'll be the way to bet...
posted by sfenders at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004

two from each will see him through, provided all other states votes as expected
posted by edgeways at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2004

"Bush is winning Franklin County, OH by 9, with 20% in.... that's Columbus, folks.."--LGF
posted by ParisParamus at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2004

Can someone hold my hand?
posted by orange swan at 7:01 PM on November 2, 2004

It's just not gonna happen, paris. Come join the rest of us back here in reality.

Calm down everyone. Kerry's already won. Barring legal challenges, which it looks like we'll see.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2004

substrate - it may just be wild guesswork. but i've been wondering about this too. you can calculate the likelihood that a state will go to a particular party given what you already know (from earlier polls) and what partial information you have (from some % of the votes). so depending on how much weighting you give to the prior information (how steady you think votes are over time), you might be, say, 90% certain of a result with only a fraction of the votes. but i'm not sure anyone really bothers with that.
posted by andrew cooke at 7:04 PM on November 2, 2004

Calm down everyone. Kerry's already won. Barring legal challenges, which it looks like we'll see.

Paint me that picture? How can Kerry pull this off? Based on the numbers I'm looking at, it looks tough.
posted by Decypher at 7:09 PM on November 2, 2004

I'll tell you how; he can get California and Florida.
posted by bingo at 7:12 PM on November 2, 2004

Bush nearing 200 electoral votes on BBC, and they haven't given him NM yet.
posted by dand at 7:12 PM on November 2, 2004

Forget Franklin County. Cuyahoga is the one to watch and we're still voting.
posted by ltracey at 7:13 PM on November 2, 2004

eb ... it's too close to call ... it really is ... we won't know for hours
posted by pyramid termite at 7:13 PM on November 2, 2004

It's getting less close in Florida, since it's still 52-47 with 78% reporting, percentages unchanged since it was at 67%.

This sucks. Why do I even care? I don't even live in your stupid country, damn it.

I'll hold your hand, orange swan.
posted by sfenders at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2004

Hey, it's not over until Diebold has approved the candidate of its choice.
posted by Blue Stone at 7:17 PM on November 2, 2004

Dark, Blue Stone. Dark.
posted by TeamBilly at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2004

People are still voting in Pennsylvania, even though the polls closed officially two hours ago. WGAL just showed a two hour long line at a local polling place here in York.
posted by MegoSteve at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2004

Bush has it. Always has.
posted by cmacleod at 7:19 PM on November 2, 2004

If Utah and Montana have turned in votes from 0 precincts, then why does CNN.com already call them for Bush? And if it's a reason not based in any way on actual results, why didn't they call those states for Bush two hours ago?
posted by bingo at 7:22 PM on November 2, 2004

> then why does CNN.com already call them for Bush?

That is a good question. CNN and Yahoo seem to be following BBC, all with Bush just shy of 200.

NYT is laggin, hasn't even called TX for Bush.
posted by dand at 7:25 PM on November 2, 2004

It can be very misleading to extrapolate from precinct results as they come in on election night. That's because many states have populations that are not uniformly distributed according to political affiliation. This is especially true in both Ohio and Florida. A lot of the more rural, lower-population precincts will get their results in early, which will skew the early results towards Bush because he quite definitely has a good lead nationally in rural communities.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:30 PM on November 2, 2004

Thanks, sfenders [extends trembling wing].

I'm watching the numbers posted on the Globe and Mail site, and they don't look good.

I'm getting this bizarre and rash impulse to vow that if Kerry wins, I will sleep with the first Democrat voter who knocks on my door. I'm reining that impulse in so far:-)
posted by orange swan at 7:30 PM on November 2, 2004

The CBC site gives Missouri to Bush, and is still calling Florida undecided. Both states show Bush 52% and Kerry 47%, with 85% of precincts reporting in Florida, and 26% of precincts reporting in Missouri.
posted by bingo at 7:39 PM on November 2, 2004

Better hope Zell Miller doesn't come a knockin'....
posted by TeamBilly at 7:40 PM on November 2, 2004

Where do you live again, swan?
posted by Potloaf at 7:40 PM on November 2, 2004

...re my comment above: in other words, by the CBC's own info, a better case could be made as to what's going to happen in Florida, but they are clearly not choosing to color the states in based solely on the numbers.

I am gaining an increasing amount of respect for the New York Times tonight.
posted by bingo at 7:42 PM on November 2, 2004

> Missouri

MO will go Bush. I've never seen as many anti-abortion signs as on I-44 and I-55. They might be union, but they are fundies too.
posted by dand at 7:43 PM on November 2, 2004

If Utah and Montana have turned in votes from 0 precincts, then why does CNN.com already call them for Bush?

There was never any question about Utah. Utah had 40% leads for Bush at some polling points. I imagine Montana is the same.
posted by weston at 7:43 PM on November 2, 2004

But if that's the attitude that the people coloring in the maps are going to take, then they should have started the maps out with those states colored for Bush. But, at least in the case of CNN.com, they didn't. They waited until the colors were starting to spread westward in other states, and then colored in Montana and Utah as if their bushiness was a recently arrived-at conclusion.
posted by bingo at 7:47 PM on November 2, 2004

Sheesh. Why on earth doesn't everyone weight the % reporting numbers by number of registered voters in each precinct? That'd be much more useful. table is useful for estimating the number of people in each state, to compare with the number of votes counted. 88% precincts reporting in Florida, but they include only something like 60% (+ or - quite a lot) of the people who are likely to vote.

Well, orange swan, I hope you do manage to get some sleep tonight. I say we all should just shut down this thread now and check back in the morning.
posted by sfenders at 7:55 PM on November 2, 2004

I think they assume the exit polls are right if they agree with the real polls. In that case they don't need real votes to call the state. It generally works fairly well.
posted by smackfu at 7:57 PM on November 2, 2004

Oops, meant to say that they assume the exit polls are accurate if they agree with the pre-election polls.
posted by smackfu at 7:59 PM on November 2, 2004

i don't know, ltracey - cuyahoga's the democratic stronghold of ohio; its votes counted for nothing in 2000. what we need to see is higher democratic turnout in columbus and cincinnati and so on...
posted by ubersturm at 8:01 PM on November 2, 2004

.
posted by littlegreenlights at 8:05 PM on November 2, 2004

[hits refresh key repeatedly, checks numbers]

I went out for a four mile walk tonight and thought about all this. Whatever happens, when we all wake up tomorrow, there still will be so much to be done. This election will just decide how well positioned we are - you Americans, and the rest of us who are so much affected by what you do - to solve the problems we face.
posted by orange swan at 8:06 PM on November 2, 2004

They won't call a state until the official close of voting time in that state. In the past they didn't wait and many people felt this curtailed voting towards the end.
posted by billsaysthis at 8:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Oops, meant to say that they assume the exit polls are accurate if they agree with the pre-election polls.

And the victor leads by more than the margin of error, I rather imagine. But I suspect someone took exit polls here in Utah today and got the expected result: Republican victories all, with the possible exception of the 2nd congressional district and the very, very longshot (but still existant) possibility of the governor's race.
posted by weston at 8:08 PM on November 2, 2004

welp, I need a cigarette. and I don't smoke. I'm gonna be bummed out for a few weeks now.
posted by bob sarabia at 8:09 PM on November 2, 2004

Less than 10% of Cuyahoga County precincts have reported yet.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:11 PM on November 2, 2004

And Pennsylvania is a win for Kerry!
posted by orange swan at 8:13 PM on November 2, 2004

Gee, they didn't call that one a second too soon, did they?

Florida looks a lot tighter now than I thought it would a couple of hours ago. Well, we'll see, I guess.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:14 PM on November 2, 2004

On the plus side, the Daily Show tonight had its moments.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2004

You'd think FNC would call California for Kerry already.
posted by smackfu at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2004

While you're watching the election, the U.S. has started air raids on Falluja.
posted by muckster at 8:20 PM on November 2, 2004

I think I'm moving to Florida so I can vote in 2008.
posted by bingo at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004

God help us.
posted by Hildegarde at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004

Okay, in Florida, the margin has decreased to 200,000 votes.

Where are you getting the numbers from? Bush is ahead by 268k on the SoS site and the latest MSNBC numbers I saw had Bush close to a 300k lead with 95% reporting.
posted by gyc at 8:31 PM on November 2, 2004

I see MSNBC has Bush with a 320k+ lead in Florida with 96% reporting.
posted by gyc at 8:32 PM on November 2, 2004

California called for Kerry.
posted by orange swan at 8:36 PM on November 2, 2004

Are any of the tracking pages reporting the nationwide Badnarik total? I just went through all the individual state pages on CNN, and came up with about 230K for Badnarik, not too far off of Nader's 260K. But everyone is reporting Nader's total and ignoring Badnarik.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:37 PM on November 2, 2004

Florida is a lot cause. Ohio doesn't look so hot, either.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:37 PM on November 2, 2004

lost. Lost cause.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:37 PM on November 2, 2004

it looks like the Same-Sex Marriage Ban is apssing in most states with that referendum.

shame on all of you.
posted by NationalKato at 8:39 PM on November 2, 2004

DA: it's because nobody heard anything about Badnarik. Water cooler talk about third parties only ever focuses on Nader, nearest I can tell, and the news isn't much better.
posted by codger at 8:40 PM on November 2, 2004

It is NOT over! Bush leads by less than 150k votes in Ohio!
posted by bingo at 8:41 PM on November 2, 2004

Same-sex marriage ban is failing in Oregon.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 8:41 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm not so sure about Florida, C_D. Early votes aren't included until 100% of precincts in a county have reported.

With Kerry down by 200K right now, that difference could be made up with the early votes from Broward/Miami-Dade/Palm Beach.

Also, 0% of Seminole's precincts have reported, and that represents 250K registered voters.

Remember, it's not 93% of votes reported; it's 93% of precincts. I don't think we're going to know Florida until the end of the week.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004

ABC news has called Florida for Bush. {cries}
posted by bonheur at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004

People are still voting in Ohio. Let me remind everyone that people are still voting in Ohio. There is no way to call it for Bush this early.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004

ABC News called Florida for Gore last time. It could go either way. The people reporting this don't understand how the voting reports work, for one thing; they keep confusing percentage of precincts reporting with percentage of votes reported.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:45 PM on November 2, 2004

...and Kerry is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, and Iowa. That's 56 electoral votes.
posted by bingo at 8:47 PM on November 2, 2004

what is it that Yoda said when Luke freaked and wanted to leave Dagobah?
posted by Bootcut at 8:48 PM on November 2, 2004

Maybe up to 1 million votes left to count in Florida, but even if they go 60-40 for Kerry, Bush still wins it.

Ohio takes it all. Come on Ohio, you can do it.
posted by sfenders at 8:49 PM on November 2, 2004

BBC just called Florida for Bush . . . :'<
posted by littlegreenlights at 8:50 PM on November 2, 2004

There are more than 10 million registered voters in Florida, and only 6,675,340 votes in the Presidential election have been counted according to the 11:46 update of the Florida Secretary of State site.

It's not 93.6% of the votes, it's 93.6% of the PRECINCTS that have reported.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:53 PM on November 2, 2004

Also, the vote totals don't include early votes from Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties, because those aren't added into the total until 100% of the precincts in those counties have reported. Those are also the most populous counties in Florida, and the strongest for Kerry.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:55 PM on November 2, 2004

Even if Kerry loses Florida, and Ohio, so what? The Dems lost those two last time, too.

But Kerry's ahead in Nevada and New Hampshire. The GOP won both of those last time. Only one needs to switch to give Kerry the election (assuming all the other states stay where they were).

We all knew it would be close. Don't be disappointed that it's not a landslide.
posted by ewagoner at 8:55 PM on November 2, 2004

man, this is just getting painful, ....shoulda bought my tickets to australia.
posted by NGnerd at 8:56 PM on November 2, 2004

WI is now trending towards Kerry, which really shows the shift of rural precints reporting first.
posted by drezdn at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004

CBS sure loves to call states, don't they?
posted by smackfu at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004

Ohio takes it all. Come on Ohio, you can do it.

If they don't, it's over by my calculations...
posted by pmurray63 at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004

The Globe headline has given me a laugh: "Networks Call Florida for Bush". Timely yet strictly accurate reporting, that.
posted by orange swan at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004

Ahh... so many numbers.

If ed's numbers are right, he's got better numbers than me, but worse math methinks. If there are 450000 left to count, Kerry would need 85% or so of them, assuming the other 15% go to his main opponent.

97% of the precincts have reported, by the CBC page. 93% of votes counted would be a reasonable guess, with 10 million registered and turnout somewhere around 75%.
posted by sfenders at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004

So there's an election thingy tonight?
posted by MidasMulligan at 8:59 PM on November 2, 2004

Oh now, it's "Two Networks Call Florida for Bush":-)
posted by orange swan at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2004

Right now, for example, only 439,699 votes are reported in Palm Beach County, whereas Palm Beach County has 729,575 registered voters.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:01 PM on November 2, 2004

NPR is reporting that *people are still voting* in Miami-Dade.

This isn't over yet.
posted by bshort at 9:03 PM on November 2, 2004

The Globe poll:

Do you think the world will know who the president of the United States is by the time you get up on Wednesday?

YES: 11535 votes (51%)
NO: 11223 votes (49%)
posted by DrJohnEvans at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2004

Anyone know how the same-sex proposal in Michigan (proposal 2) is doing?
posted by gyc at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2004

Miami-Dade County has 1,058,801 registered voters, and only 699,696 presidential votes reported as of 12:02.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004

Ed, here's a toast. Merlot here too. Not too much yet, but I'm getting there.

I should go do something else for a while.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004

Remember: we're not going to have Florida until *Thursday* sometime. Broward broke 2:1 Kerry; the 90,000 absentee ballots they can't find staff to count are in Miami, Right Next Door.
posted by baylink at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004

GYC: It's winning big.
posted by pmurray63 at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004

"Miami-Dade County has 1,058,801 registered voters, and only 699,696 presidential votes reported as of 12:02."

So we're already at 70% turnout. Even if we get 80%, it's only another 100,000 possibles. If 70% goes Dem, that's only a 40,000 gain. The lead is 325,000 right now.
posted by chris24 at 9:10 PM on November 2, 2004

Anyone know which countries currently accept political refugees?
posted by shoepal at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2004

CNN just called FL for Bush.
posted by headspace at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2004

CNN's tracking the major ballot initiatives here.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2004

Give up on Florida people. Hope for a miracle in Ohio. Hope that Kerry keeps the leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ignore all else.

Even without Ohio, if Kerry can lose New Mexico, but get New Hampshire and Nevada. He's gold.
posted by graventy at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2004

who are all these people voting for bush? seriously! where have they been for the past four years?
posted by bob sarabia at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2004

320000 votes difference and 97% precincts in Florida, says the CBC. 6,900,000 or so in total votes counted so far. 8,500,000 total votes a generous estimate. 1,400,000 votes left to count then.

Kerry needs 320000 more than bush, ... which is uh... 860000 of them, or a bit more than 60% of the remaining votes to be counted to be his. HA! I was right the first time.

It's certainly possible, I guess.
posted by sfenders at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2004

GYC: More specifically, the MI gay marriage proposal is is winning 60-40.

Bush has been ahead in Ohio. The question is, where are the votes that haven't been counted from?

I doubt it, graventy. Ohio will decide this election. I realized that awhile ago, and ABC's Mark Halperin just said so in as many words. And Bush's people seem more confident there :(
posted by pmurray63 at 9:15 PM on November 2, 2004

It's 5 fucking 15 in the morning. I have to get up in 3 hours. As soon as Ohio is called for Bush, I'm gone, cos Bush wins.
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:16 PM on November 2, 2004

NBC has called Oregon for Bush. CBS has called it for Kerry. It was a close Gore last time.
posted by ewagoner at 9:17 PM on November 2, 2004

Scratch that. NBC has retracted, and gives it to Kerry.
posted by ewagoner at 9:19 PM on November 2, 2004

Bush's lead in Ohio is closing...
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:20 PM on November 2, 2004

Thanks for the link, DevilsAdvocate.

I thought that the same-sex marriage ban would fail here in Michigan due to its Democratic leanings. I also thought that most Republicans here would be either rich Detroit suburbanites or libertarian leaning rural types instead of religious fanatics, but I guess I'm wrong.
posted by gyc at 9:21 PM on November 2, 2004

The votes that haven't been counted in Ohio are mostly from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), and Lorain County (Cleveland suburbs). Cuyahoga and Lorain are going way Kerry; Hamilton is surprisingly split at the moment.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:21 PM on November 2, 2004

The Ohio Secretary of State website is much less helpful than the CNN and C-SPAN sites, I think. I can't find a county-by-county breakdown on the Ohio SOS site.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:23 PM on November 2, 2004

In the years to come, we'll be able to look back on this thread as a meter of how pessimistic, optimistic or realistic we all are.
posted by orange swan at 9:23 PM on November 2, 2004

What the hell is going on with New Hampshire? Shouldn't it have been called by now? Ooh, BBC calls Colorado for Bush...
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:24 PM on November 2, 2004

MSNBC just claimed they will not call Florida because of the absentee ballots.

Well they just called Florida for Bush. They still have the best US TV election coverage though.
posted by gyc at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2004

WHAT
THE
FUCK
FLORIDA?
posted by bingo at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2004

Michigan is mostly midwestern in it's insensibilities. It's not really liberal, it just votes Democratic because the Democratic policies are better for the bulk of the workers. Otherwise it can be a pretty bible toting place.
posted by substrate at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2004

17% ages 18-24 voted, same number as in 2000. So much for rock the vote, eh? (those number might be a little off, but that seemed to be what I saw)/
posted by tomplus2 at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2004

The CBC site had NH at Kerry and then took it away.
posted by dobbs at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2004

MSNBC just called Florida and Colorado for Bush... crap!
posted by falconred at 9:27 PM on November 2, 2004

MSNBC suck! I'm watching it muted whilst watching the Beeb. As for the poor youth vote, when it comes to the UK election, I'm going to go on a one man crusade to get my peers voting.
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:27 PM on November 2, 2004

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/general/by_county/pres/OH.html?SITE=YAHOOELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Ohio county by county...

It really is close to call. A lot of the precincts that aren't reporting are from counties with a LOT of precincts -- which are predominantly voting for kerry.
posted by yevge at 9:28 PM on November 2, 2004

Bingo, I think that should be

WHAT
THE
FUCK
AMERICA?
posted by dobbs at 9:28 PM on November 2, 2004

Looks like it's up to Cleveland ...
posted by norm111 at 9:29 PM on November 2, 2004

Kerry's less than 100K down in Ohio, with folks still voting in Cuyahoga county.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:30 PM on November 2, 2004

What county is Cleveland?
posted by yevge at 9:31 PM on November 2, 2004

yevge, Cleveland is Cuyahoga County.
posted by dobbs at 9:32 PM on November 2, 2004

Cuyahoga. And some Cleveland suburbs are in Lorain.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:33 PM on November 2, 2004

Sidhedevil, where are you getting those stats?
posted by protocool at 9:33 PM on November 2, 2004

Voters in 10 states approved constitutional amendments Tuesday to ban same-sex marriage
posted by homunculus at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004

Can someone with some great excel knowledge take that county breakdown and estimate how the remaining precincts will vote based on how the county has voted already?
posted by yevge at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004

New Hampshire's still very close--265K Kerry, 257K Bush, 84% reporting.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004

BBC are reporting people are still voting in Ohio, and could be for several hours....
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004

California approves $3 billion for stem cell research
posted by homunculus at 9:36 PM on November 2, 2004

who are all these people voting for bush? seriously! where have they been for the past four years?

Eating his every word as God's truth.
posted by weston at 9:39 PM on November 2, 2004

> [10 states] ban same-sex marriage

Backlash! Thank the folks ACTing UP in San Fran for that. In-your-face is now returned.
posted by dand at 9:39 PM on November 2, 2004

250 precincts still out in Cuyahoga county.

Daschle's down by 3700 in SD.
posted by pmurray63 at 9:40 PM on November 2, 2004

Minnesota for Kerry
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:42 PM on November 2, 2004

Make that 348 precincts still out. I need to use a calculator more.
posted by pmurray63 at 9:42 PM on November 2, 2004

Ohio stats are the AP's via CNN or C-SPAN; the Ohio Secretary of State's office doesn't have a county breakdown that I can see.

The Florida stats are from the Florida Secretary of State.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:42 PM on November 2, 2004

Warren county has quite a few out as well..
with 70% in favor of bush

... anyone do the excel spreadsheet?
posted by yevge at 9:43 PM on November 2, 2004

Thank you.
posted by protocool at 9:44 PM on November 2, 2004

Fox has called NH for Kerry

and Ohio for Bush

Only to do this for both so far though.
posted by yupislyr at 9:44 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm pretty good at Excel, but I don't see how that would work.
posted by bingo at 9:45 PM on November 2, 2004

Hm. Maybe it'd be better if we didn't try to do this all in one night.
posted by psmealey at 9:46 PM on November 2, 2004

What if neither candidate gets 270 electoral votes?
posted by bingo at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2004

17% ages 18-24 voted, same number as in 2000

This is the same percentage, not the same number. It could actually be higher than 2000 given the total turnout that may rival 1960.
posted by pedantic at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2004

I could do it on Excel, but I'm not your monkey.
posted by graventy at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004

... I mean as much as I worship at the altar of statistical sampling as any red-blooded American does, it'd be nice if we had a full, high-confidence count of all votes cast today before states were awarded to candidates by Fox, ABC and CNN. Just saying, is all.
posted by psmealey at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004

More merlot, ed. There are still some good people out there.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004

We feel you, ed.
posted by muckster at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm not sure all y'all understand the onus behind the apparently surprising numbers of Bush voters. They weren't using the internet to spread the message, so I think a lot of it got missed. They're not all Freepers or whatever the vogue derogatory term is right now... some of them just get it passed traditionally at the dinner table and in the churches.

There's a whole 'nother country out there that isn't in front of your computer screens.

I don't mean to sound, well, mean, but that's how I see it and damnit, I'm going to bed.

I fully expect people to be voting in Ohio for at least another hour. In my precinct they had 960 voters * five minutes each (average or ordinance, you decide) / 3 machines = over 26 hours. Unless we had some five hundred absentee voters there are still a lot of people whose votes who won't get counted unless they're still in line. This is not, by any means, unique to my precinct.
posted by codger at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004

Bush's margin in Ohio is *growing*. Now 140k with 83% reporting.

Someone get the fat lady on the phone.
posted by pmurray63 at 9:50 PM on November 2, 2004

17% ages 18-24 voted, same number as in 2000

This is the same percentage, not the same number. It could actually be higher than 2000 given the total turnout that may rival 1960.


Wait, is that the percentage of eligible 18-24 voters that voted or is that the percentage of total voters?

I'm also still very wary of Fox's call of OH for Bush. Don't they remember 2000?
posted by gyc at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2004

ed, don't be such a precious moron
posted by shoos at 9:52 PM on November 2, 2004

It's all Bush. The networks are working on Ohio to make it dramatic, but...it's over.

He's won the popular vote; he's won Florida. I don't understand it. My country makes no sense to me. I'm drunk.

Every election makes it clearer that we're headed towards what Mexico and Japan and Russia have alerady shown us: A 1-1/2 party system, with a permanent-minority party that has an occasional upset win but basically exists to be picked on. Fuck.
posted by argybarg at 9:53 PM on November 2, 2004

pmurray, that represents the last of the rural counties and the parts of Hamilton County where voting isn't still going on. Mathematically, it's absolutely still possible for Kerry the way the voting in Cuyahoga, Lorain, and Hamilton Counties is trending.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:54 PM on November 2, 2004

Under the leadership of ignorance, we will emerge, smarter and stronger.
posted by PrinceValium at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2004

Ohio margin is back down to 100K.
posted by edlundart at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2004

CNN gives Ohio 100k lead...
posted by Orange Goblin at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2004

Argybarg, go look at the county-by-county totals for Ohio. It's still too close to call. I'm not saying that because I'm optimistic, either; I'm saying that because people are still voting there and the most populous precincts are still outstanding.

Now, I do still cling to a shard of hope that everything left in Florida will go perfectly according to the exit polls, in which case that's still too close to call, too. But I do know that that is probably just a fantasy. It's going to be close, though.
posted by Sidhedevil at 9:57 PM on November 2, 2004

gyc - you mean 2000, wherein FNC called the election for Bush causing the rest of the networks to spinelessly follow suit, thereby skewing public perception of the recount effort in Bush's favor? Yeah, they probably remember that.
posted by bingbangbong at 9:58 PM on November 2, 2004

What I find interesting is that it's clear that the people in states LEAST likely to be attacked by terrorists - Wyoming, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Arkansas, for example - are the ones voting for Bush, and the people in places MOST likely to be struck, like the New York area (who've already been attacked directly and have actually buried and mourned their dead), Illinois (Chicago), California (LA/San Diego, San Fran), Massachusetts (Greater Boston) and Washington D.C. are voting for Kerry.

The Bush states are the ones most likely to be hurt by corporate domination as well.

What's going on? What are you people afraid of out there in Omaha, Sioux Falls, Billings? Do you think Al Qaeda is going to parachute a few divisions of mad mullahs down onto Main St., Midwest USA and take over? If the people in New York, who watched in horror with their own naked eyes (as opposed to CNN) as the Towers fell, feel that Kerry will do a better job of protecting them, what the hell are you worried about?

Your way of life will not likely be affected by terrorist attacks. And New York does not seem to need you to support avenging the dead of 9/11.

What a strange fear you have.
posted by zoogleplex at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004

Things are starting to break in favor of President Bush -- woohoo! The best part of his winning re-election -- if indeed it does play out that way -- will be wondering how many "progressives"/liberals/democrats will move to Canada, France, Oz, or some other place.
posted by davidmsc at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004

On ABC a few min ago, Ohio's Secretary of State was estimating ~130,000 provisional ballots that won't be counted until Nov 13.
posted by pmurray63 at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm getting an ulcer.
posted by Devils Slide at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004

Where the fuck have these people been for the last four years?

I am truly ashamed of my "fellow" Americans. Bush should have gotten beaten badly. Instead it looks like he's going to end up winning by a bigger margin than he did in 2000.

What the fuck, America? Truly, what the fuck?
posted by fenriq at 10:00 PM on November 2, 2004

NBC just called Ohio to Bush.
posted by edlundart at 10:00 PM on November 2, 2004

Bingo: if no candidate gets a majority in the EC, the house of representatives votes for president, with each State's delegation voting as a bloc and getting one vote. The Senate elects the vice-president. It's looking like both of those would go republican.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 10:02 PM on November 2, 2004

ABC has now revised that to 150K+ prov ballots.

Don't take any wooden electoral votes, folks.
posted by baylink at 10:02 PM on November 2, 2004

But was there any hope to begin with? Anyone really believe that Bush wasn't going to get re-elected? He had in the bag 4 years ago.
posted by cmacleod at 10:02 PM on November 2, 2004

FUCK FUCK FCUK
posted by muckster at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2004

nbc just called ohio to bush
posted by jmgorman at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2004

CBC is also now reporting an Ohio gap of only about 100k. What is wrong with these networks that report a state for Bush right when it starts to look better for Kerry?
posted by bingo at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2004

.
posted by jmgorman at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2004

BBC are now showing pictures of what I assume are the huge queues of people STILL voting in Ohio - audio seems to have cut out, so it might be somewhere else, but I doubt it.
posted by Orange Goblin at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2004

I am going to bed. It is clear that neither Florida nor Ohio will be decided definitively for the next several days, no matter how much the media would like to call it now.

Well, it's been fascinating.
posted by Sidhedevil at 10:04 PM on November 2, 2004

It's over. I'm going to bed. America sinks lower.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 10:04 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm pessimistic, but it's too early to call Ohio.
posted by pmurray63 at 10:04 PM on November 2, 2004

Where the fuck have these people been for the last four years?

Nice to see it doesn't only happen in Australia.
posted by obiwanwasabi at 10:04 PM on November 2, 2004

Things are starting to break in favor of President Bush -- woohoo! The best part of his winning re-election -- if indeed it does play out that way -- will be wondering how many "progressives"/liberals/democrats will move to Canada, France, Oz, or some other place.

And what in God's name is there to be gleeful about? A quasi theocratic state to make Calvin blush? Another misbegotten war or two? A few more trillion dollars added to the deficit? A bankrupt social security administration? I simply don't get it.
posted by psmealey at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2004

I am truly ashamed of my "fellow" Americans.
posted by Keyser Soze at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2004

MSNBC calls OH for Bush.
posted by gyc at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2004

As a Bush supporter, I don't want anyone to move out of the country. I hope everyone that's even thinking about moving reconsiders. Don't give up working for change you think this country needs.
posted by gyc at 10:06 PM on November 2, 2004

Ohio's gettin' close.

And on preview, I see that every network seems to be calling it for Bush. Huh.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:07 PM on November 2, 2004

PA may still be in play!
posted by ParisParamus at 10:07 PM on November 2, 2004

Canada is full. Stay out.

Thanks.
posted by yupislyr at 10:07 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm totally with ed on this one. I am fucking disappointed in my country. For it to be this close at this point is a disappointment to me. I was looking forward to coming home with a lightened heart, but now I am seriously considering extending my exile another four years, and using the time to try and get citizenship in another country.

I'd be weeping, but I'm too damned angry.

Fuck every whitebread, inbred, xenophobic, homophobic, ignorant, bible-thumping, truck-driving, confederate-flag-waving, redneck, red state motherfucker.
posted by bashos_frog at 10:07 PM on November 2, 2004

LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!
posted by ParisParamus at 10:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Part of me says: Hillary in '08!

but most of me says : America: good while it lasted.
posted by Espoo2 at 10:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Ohpleaseohpleaseohplease don't die America.

Fingers still crossed for Kerry.
posted by dazed_one at 10:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Get ready for an invasion of Iran.
posted by rocketman at 10:09 PM on November 2, 2004

How does Ohio even have that many people in it?
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:09 PM on November 2, 2004

We may have to work for that change with rifles if things keep going the way they're going, gyc. You really want that?
posted by zoogleplex at 10:09 PM on November 2, 2004

The electronic voting systems are showing how easy it is to truly blind the eyes of a once free and (for a few years, anyway) noble America. Welcome back to a George Bush that not only is going to do whatever makes him and his friends money, but will see no reprecussions.
posted by Keyser Soze at 10:09 PM on November 2, 2004

Hey, zoogleplex, I'm not one to use foul language online and in a place where I try at all times to be civil, but SCREW YOU. You brought Billings into this thread, and that hits close to home. Just because I don't LIVE in New York doesn't mean that I didn't feel -- just as strongly as the people who were there -- the utter pain and disbelief and heartbreak of 9/11. Seeing it on TV did not lessen the incrdible sense of loss that I felt at seeing 3,000 of my fellow Americans (and others) perish, or watching the very symbols of American ideals and strength topple.

Oh, and there's that other thing happened on 9/11 -- you know, the Pentagon, where dozens of my fellow soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines were massacred.

Why do you assume that just because I (or others in "flyover country) wasn't actually IN New York or DC on that day, I didn't suffer the same way? Why do presume that I have no family, friends, co-workers who were there, were killed or injured, or otherwise deeply affected by that day?

Just because the bleeding-fucking-heart liberals of NYC, DC, and LA seem to think that Kerry would make America safer doesn't make it so.

You seem to suffer the delusion that the coastal metro areas are somehow superior to "flyover" country, but you're dead wrong.
posted by davidmsc at 10:10 PM on November 2, 2004

OHIO CANNOT BE CALLED YET. PEOPLE ARE STILL VOTING THERE, I REPEAT, STILL VOTING THERE.
posted by somethingotherthan at 10:11 PM on November 2, 2004

Oh, the fucking melodrama. You people never give up, I'll give you that.

Silver lining thought of the day: Look on the bright side -- Anybody but Bush is a sure thing in 2008. Rock the vote, people!
posted by David Dark at 10:11 PM on November 2, 2004

WAY TO GO AMERICA.

Are FACTS really that difficult to learn, discover, and consider when voting? For about a year, I have been on a quest to find THREE GOOD THINGS Bush has done during his years in office. Never mind all the bad things: just tell me what he's done right. NOBODY HAS BEEN ABLE TO TELL ME. "I feel safer under Bush" and "Kerry wants me to pay for abortions" aren't facts, but they're the best I've heard. Granted, I live in California, but...

Okay, how about this:

AAARRRGHHHHH
posted by kevspace at 10:12 PM on November 2, 2004

We are accustomed to think of ourselves as an emancipated people; we say we are democratic, liberty-loving, free of prejudice and hatred. This is the melting pot, the seal of a great human experiment. Beautiful words, full of noble, idealistic sentiment. Actually we are a vulgar, pushing mob whose passions are easily mobilized by demagogues, newspaper men, religious quacks, agitators and such like. To call this a society of free peoples is blasphemous. What have we to offer the world beside the superabundant loot which we recklessly plunder from the earth under the maniacal delusion that this insane activity represents progress and enlightenment? The land of opportunity has become the land of senseless sweat and struggle. The goal of all of our striving has long been forgotten. We no longer wish to succor the oppressed and homeless; there is no room in this great, empty land for those who, like our forefathers before us, now seek a place of refuge. Millions of men and women are, or were until very recently, on relief, condemned like guinea pigs to a life of forced idleness. The world meanwhile looks to us with a desperation such as it has never known before. Where is the democratic spirit? Where are the leaders?

To conduct a great human experiment we must first of all have men. Behind the conception MAN there must be grandeur. No political party is capable of ushering in the Kingdom of Man. The workers of the world may one day, if they ever cease listening to their bigoted leaders, organize a brotherhood of man. But men cannot be brothers without first becoming peers, that is, equals in a kingly sense. What prevents men from uniting as brothers is their own base inadequacy. Slaves cannot unite; cowards cannot unite; the ignorant cannot unite. It is only by obeying our highest impulses that we can unite. The urge to surpass oneself has to be instinctive, not theoretical or believable merely. Unless we make the effort to realize the truths which are in us we shall fail again and again. As Democrats, Republicans, Fascists, Communists, we are all on one level. That is one of the reasons why we wage war so beautifully. We defend with our lives the petty principles which divide us. The common principle, which is the establishment of the empire of man on earth, we never lift a finger to defend. We are frightened of any urge which would lift us out of the muck. We fight only for the status quo, our particular status quo. We battle with heads down and eyes closed. Actually there never is status quo, except in the minds of political imbeciles. All is flux. Those who are on the defensive are fighting phantoms.

What is the greatest treason? To question what it is one may be fighting for. Here insanity and treason join hands. War is a form of insanity-the noblest or the basest, according to your point of view. Because it is a mass insanity the wise are powerless to prevail against it. Above any other single factor that may be adduced in explanation of war is confusion. When all other weapons fail one resorts to force. But there may be nothing wrong with the weapons which we so easily and readily discard. They may need to be sharpened, or we may need to improve our skill, or both. To fight is to admit that one is confused; it is an act of desperation, not of strength. A rat can fight magnificently when cornered. Are we to emulate the rat?

***

These wars teach us nothing, not even how to conquer our fears. We are still cave men. Democratic cave men, perhaps, but that is small comfort. Our fight is to get out of the cave. If we were to make the least effort in that direction we would inspire the whole world.

If we are going to play the role of Vulcan let us forge dazzling new weapons which will unshackle the chains which bind us. Let us not love the earth in a perverse way. Let us stop playing the role of recidivist. Let us stop murdering one another. The earth is not a lair, neither is it a prison. The earth is Paradise, the only we will ever know. We will realize it the moment we open our eyes. We don't have to make it a Paradise-it is one. We have only to make ourselves fit to inhabit it. The man with the gun, the man with murder in his heart, cannot possibly recognize Paradise even when he is shown it,

***

Some people think that a declaration of war changes everything. If only it were true! If only we could look forward to a radical, sweeping change from top to bottom! The changes brought about by war are nothing, however, compared to the discoveries and inventions of Edison. Yet, for good or ill, war can bring about a change in the spirit of a people. And that is what I am vitally interested in-a change of heart, a conversion.

We have a condition now which is called "a national emergency." Though the legislators and politicians may rant at will, though the newspaper tribe may rave and spread hysteria, though the military clique may bluster, threaten, and clamp down on everything which is not to their liking, the private citizen, for whom and by whom the war is being fought, is supposed to hold his tongue. Since I have not the least respect for this attitude, since it does nothing to advance the cause of freedom, I have left unaltered those statements which are apt to cause annoyance and irritation even in times of peace. I believe with John Stuart Mill that "a State which dwarfs its men, in order that they may be more docile instruments in its hands even for beneficial purposes, will find that with small men no great thing can really be accomplished." I would rather my opinions and appraisals were proved wrong-by the emergence of a new and vital spirit. If it takes a calamity such as war to awaken and transform us, well and good, so be it. Let us now see if the unemployed will be put to work and the poor properly clothed, housed and fed; let us see if the rich will be stripped of their booty and made to endure the privations and sufferings of the ordinary citizen; let us see if all the workers of America, regardless of class, ability or usefulness, can be persuaded to accept a common wage; let us see if the people can voice their wishes in direct fashion, without the intercession, the distortion, and the bungling of politicians; let us see if we can create a real democracy in place of the fake one we have finally been roused to defend; let us see if we can be fair and just to our own kind, to say nothing of the enemy whom we shall doubtless conquer over.

posted by The God Complex at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2004

People are still voting. This is not over.
posted by amberglow at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2004

From NRO:
BUSH WINS...COOL. [Jonah Goldberg]

But Kerry (and Michael Moore, Barbara Streisand, Dan Rather, Alec Baldwin, Tom Daschle, Janeane Garafalo, Mohammed El Baradei, Richard Clarke, Joe Wilson, Ron Suskind, Ron Reagan, Kofi Annan, Bon Jovi, Michael Stipe, P Diddy, Cameron Diaz, The New York Times, Al Franken, Molly Ivins, Graydon Carter and others) LOSE!
posted by ParisParamus at 10:14 PM on November 2, 2004

bashos_frog: Fuck every whitebread, inbred, xenophobic, homophobic, ignorant, bible-thumping, truck-driving, confederate-flag-waving, redneck, red state motherfucker.

Uh, yeah -- that's exactly the attitude that I was implying about the coastal metro residents. You summed it up real nice there, b_f. You jackass.
posted by davidmsc at 10:15 PM on November 2, 2004

We may have to work for that change with rifles if things keep going the way they're going, gyc. You really want that?


Come on, the election was once again very close. Plus, the 2008 GOP Presidential candidate will be much more moderate, like Sen. McCain. Here's a though: register as a Republican in 2008 and vote for the most palatable Presidential candidate in the primary so even if the Democrats lose, at least the President will be someone you can stand to stick around for.
posted by gyc at 10:15 PM on November 2, 2004

Let me explain my shouting: I just came from voting in Ohio after waiting *8 hours* in line. Yes, that's right, 8 hours. The only reason I got out early was because I opted for a paper ballot.

The county to watch is Knox, home to Kenyon College. People are still voting there and most likely will be until about 2 am. The precient only had 2 voting machines (for 1300 people!) and one of them was broken for much of the day. The little building is still full of -- you guessed it, college kids. Whoever said the youth turnout has not changed was dead fucking wrong, it certainly increased this year and especially in OH.

The paper ballots were brought in by a court order to help speed things along at about 8 pm EST. Apparently the Republicans are now trying to appeal this injuction, and thus people are apting to wait in line for another 3 hours to use one of the machines instead of voting on paper.

If anybody calls OH before 2 am they are spouting complete bullshit. It is still too close to call.
posted by somethingotherthan at 10:15 PM on November 2, 2004

hehe. i'm bummed my guy didn't win, but it's almost worth it just to see the *gasp!* surprised reaction here. some of you truly do live in a completely different fantasyland if you're this shocked. but look on the brightside, at least ya'll will have something to talk about for the next 4 years.

i just wish i could see michael moore's pathetic scowl right about now.

btw, i almost didn't vote today, but my father (a devoted republican) kept badgering me until i agreed, knowing all along that i was going to choose kerry.

ON PREVIEW: Fuck every whitebread, inbred, xenophobic, homophobic, ignorant, bible-thumping, truck-driving, confederate-flag-waving, redneck, red state motherfucker.

and you really wonder how you lost touch?
posted by poopy at 10:15 PM on November 2, 2004

How about, "fuck every person who doesn't vote based on facts."
posted by kevspace at 10:18 PM on November 2, 2004

The best part of his winning re-election -- if indeed it does play out that way -- will be wondering how many "progressives"/liberals/democrats will move to Canada, France, Oz, or some other place.

As amber says, this is not over. And even if the election blows Bush's way, with the wind of Diebold in his sales, frankly, what I'm going to do is stay and get mean.

No more of this staying silent over the dinner table when someone says "I may not like what Bush says, but at least I know what Bush thinks. You can't say that about Kerry." Nope. Even friends and family who stay stuff like this are not going to get spared the reality of getting idiotic tripe like that ripped from the whistling holes in their heads.

Seriously davidmsc, people like that and people like you have just sold out America, playing right into the hands of the madmen who think they're heroically bestowing it upon the world, when they're really spending its strength bomb by bomb and bullet by bullet. Because people like you don't understand that America is an idea and a set of principles, just like, as Kipling said, the British Empire didn't, when they put their trust "In reeking tube and iron shard." That is exactly what the neocons think, and it will have the same result in the end.
posted by namespan at 10:19 PM on November 2, 2004

but are 300,000 people waiting on those lines? its over, kids. 4 more years. fuck.
posted by ChasFile at 10:19 PM on November 2, 2004

davidmsc, you're taking what I said personally, and you shouldn't. Those places are not superior to midwestern or southern or other rural places, but you can't tell me that they aren't in far more direct danger of attack. I personally appreciate your feelings; I'm originally from NJ and grew up watching those towers get built, and spent a lot of time in them as I used to deliver packages to them. I submit that I suffered as much as you did - and friends of mine who lived there suffered much more as they lost people directly related to them (which I didn't).

I was simply pointing out the interesting contrast, and wondering what the hell people are thinking?

I guess being protected by Strong Daddy really is very important to a huge chunk of this country, which I don't understand at all. We should all work together to protect each other (even if we disagree on some things), not hand control over to some Father Figure who says he'll take care of us. We're Americans. We're supposed to be independent, brave, and strong in ourselves, not acting in terror of anything.
posted by zoogleplex at 10:19 PM on November 2, 2004

How about just "fuck"?
posted by Orange Goblin at 10:19 PM on November 2, 2004

how about .."We're all fucked"?
posted by edgeways at 10:20 PM on November 2, 2004

Sorry, I meant to attribute that.

Henry Miller, 1945.
posted by The God Complex at 10:21 PM on November 2, 2004

Damn good thing Matt put in the new server, anyway.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:21 PM on November 2, 2004

Amberglow: cry now, and get it over with.
posted by ParisParamus at 10:21 PM on November 2, 2004

MetaFilter: We're All Fucked.
posted by bluedaniel at 10:22 PM on November 2, 2004

Judy Woodruff explaining why CNN isn't calling Ohio. Possibly as many as 200K provisional ballots; in 2000, 90% of Ohio's provisional ballots were valid. However, they estimate Kerry would have to reduce Bush's lead to 50K in the non-provisional votes for the provisionals to make a difference.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 10:22 PM on November 2, 2004

This is showing Ohio Bush 2,451,864 Kerry 2,371,383
posted by protocool at 10:23 PM on November 2, 2004

I have a sudden urge to curl into the fetal position, or maybe break into some cars.
posted by Tlogmer at 10:23 PM on November 2, 2004

I don't want to see my college years being spent under the podium of an idiot loudmouth son of an asshole. How am I going to pay for college? Yeah, i'll get a job and pay for all that myself! At most i'll end up going to PCC for 4 years. Thank you Dick Cheneys America.
posted by Keyser Soze at 10:23 PM on November 2, 2004

I've never been so depressed to be an American.
posted by fenriq at 10:24 PM on November 2, 2004

zoogleplex: OK, cool...I'm cooled off a bit now. Thanks for coming back.


namespan: people like you don't understand that America is an idea and a set of principles

WRONG. I completely understand that America is the first and (to my knowledge) ONLY country in history ever founded explictly on principles and ideals -- liberty, justice, representative government.
posted by davidmsc at 10:25 PM on November 2, 2004

The county to watch is Knox, home to Kenyon College. People are still voting there and most likely will be until about 2 am. The precient only had 2 voting machines (for 1300 people!)

All but 7 precincts there have reported. I believe what you say, but it won't be enough. :(
posted by pmurray63 at 10:26 PM on November 2, 2004

WRONG. I completely understand that America is the first and (to my knowledge) ONLY country in history ever founded explictly on principles and ideals -- liberty, justice, representative government.

Which makes it the greater shame that your country and its leaders have so forsaken those principles and ideals.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 10:27 PM on November 2, 2004

What's the matter davidmsc?
How many of your character traits did I get right?
If you have nothing in common with what I described, then it wasn't directed at you or your kind.
I'm sick of the racists of middle America.
I'm sick of creationism being taught in schools.
I'm sick of people who think driving a SUV is God-given right, but disagreeing with the President is not.
I'm sick of hearing 'raghead' and 'camel-jockey' by folks who get perturbed if I apply an epithet to Tim McVeigh.
I'm sick of hearing America described as a Christian nation.
I'm sick of being told to 'get over it' by people who still refer to the 'war of northern aggression'
I'm sure there are some good people between the coasts, but their votes apparently didn't count for much today.

To the ones whose votes put this radical fundamentalist warmongering greedy coward back in office:
Fuck all y'all.
posted by bashos_frog at 10:27 PM on November 2, 2004

At least when the economy tanks next year under the unsustainable weight of the budget and trade deficits the Republican's will get all the blame.
posted by pforth at 10:28 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm calling it a night. It's still too close to call.... so some of you might end up eating your rhetoric tomorrow.

But even if Bush should be declared the winner, there are such things as impeachments.

Also, Canada is not full, but I would urge you to stay where you are and fight, knowing that nearly half your conutry is on your side.
posted by orange swan at 10:28 PM on November 2, 2004

130k absentee ballots in Ohio. If they can get the margin down from the 125k it's at now, there's a chance Kerry could still pull it out.

But mostly I've given up hope. Americans en masse are clearly vile, hateful, willfully ignorant people interested in nothing but their own ill-informed prejudices and irrational fears. I hope America is ready for the new reality they're about to face. The next time there's a 9.11 type tragedy, get ready for a collective world shrug.
posted by The God Complex at 10:28 PM on November 2, 2004

Bush is Diebold country. That's all ya really need know about this. The fix was in, and it's happened.

As I've said for 3 years- I'm rooting for the terrorists.
posted by hincandenza at 10:28 PM on November 2, 2004

Provisional ballots won't be certified until at least tomorrow (Thursday). Also, there are lawsuits after lawsuits in this state about voters rights, not the least of which is this whole paper ballot deal in my county. It's not over yet.
posted by somethingotherthan at 10:28 PM on November 2, 2004

America was created by progessive liberals. Perhaps they should have all moved to Canada instead.
posted by stbalbach at 10:29 PM on November 2, 2004

"more than 250,000 votes still to be counted in Ohio" according to MSNBC just now.
posted by amberglow at 10:31 PM on November 2, 2004

All but 7 precincts there have reported. I believe what you say, but it won't be enough. :(

Well, at the very least you can't say the youth of America didn't try. My precinct isn't reporting and its almost all first-time voting young adults.
posted by somethingotherthan at 10:31 PM on November 2, 2004

Canada is not full

Speak for yourself. I'm not sharin' any of my two square kilometres.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:32 PM on November 2, 2004

... willfully ignorant people interested in nothing but their own ill-informed prejudices and irrational fears.

sounds vaguely familiar.
posted by poopy at 10:33 PM on November 2, 2004

Also, how distressing is it that young voters didn't turn out and the age group directly above them actually showed up less than last time? The fact that so many people don't care about any of this is indictment enough on the American public. As a young Canadian who always grew up really liking American films and literature and wanting in many ways to live, it's absolutely shameful what a fucking disgrace your country is now.

Even if Kerry somehow pulled it out, I'd feel the same way. I can't believe this race is even in the same neighbourhood as close. You have poor people voting against their own interests because they hate gays and abortion, you have polls showing that large percentages of people can't even identify what candidate wants to roll back tax cuts on people who make over 200k. How fucking stupid can you possibly be? How is it even possible to function at that point?

asdf;lkjadf;lkajsdf;lkjasd;flkjfjadfblajewrw

I quit!
posted by The God Complex at 10:33 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm not going to Canada. I love this freaking country. Have you been to the Grand Canyon? Driven the Blue Ridge Parkway? Saw the wild horses on Assateague Island? How could I possibly leave? This place needs me. It needs all of us.
posted by PrinceValium at 10:34 PM on November 2, 2004

In a more serious vein: what TGC said.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:37 PM on November 2, 2004

I am truly ashamed of my "fellow" Americans.

Because they voted? Let me get this straight. Everyone needs to vote, unless you vote for someone I disagree with, then I'm ashamed of you?

Funny stuff.
posted by justgary at 10:38 PM on November 2, 2004

This place needs me. It needs all of us.

Are you prepared to take up arms? I am nearly at that point.
posted by uncleozzy at 10:38 PM on November 2, 2004

According to my (probably inaccurate) calculations, when all the votes (minus provisionals) are counted up, Bush will add an additional 20k votes to his tally in OH, instead of losing votes.
posted by gyc at 10:39 PM on November 2, 2004

The Canadian Rockies ain't too shabby either, y'know. There is no lack of beauty in Canada, particularly. I won't move there very soon, but ...
posted by raysmj at 10:39 PM on November 2, 2004

Have you been to the Grand Canyon? Driven the Blue Ridge Parkway? Saw the wild horses on Assateague Island? How could I possibly leave? This place needs me. It needs all of us.

Other places have rocks and animals too. Get over yourself.
posted by rushmc at 10:40 PM on November 2, 2004

Kerry's closed the Ohio gap to 100k again.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:40 PM on November 2, 2004

I don't care who wins guys, just don't prove John Titor right about the civil war. That will not be nice.
posted by VeGiTo at 10:40 PM on November 2, 2004

God Complex: That's not true. The 18-29 age group vote was up this time. It won't be the youth that lose this election.
posted by somethingotherthan at 10:42 PM on November 2, 2004

I think the Grand Canyon was doing all right before we got here.
posted by bingo at 10:42 PM on November 2, 2004

America was created by progessive liberals. Perhaps they should have all moved to Canada instead.

Maybe a more thorough asskicking in the war of 1812 would have been in order, too.
posted by jmgorman at 10:43 PM on November 2, 2004

Kerry needs to be within 40k to even have a shot. The precincts that still need reporting are in Bush-country.

I'm moving back to Belgium (dependent on SSS).
posted by Mach3avelli at 10:43 PM on November 2, 2004

Also, regardless of how this turns out, I will never take msnbc seriously in any way from now on. What assfaces.
posted by bingo at 10:44 PM on November 2, 2004

justgary, no, I'm not ashamed that they voted, I'm ashamed that Bush is the chosen representative of this country.

Actually, it kind of sickens me really.

There will be recounts and all that but it looks more and more like Bush is going to win and that bothers the fuck out of me. It bothers me that people chose an unmitigated failure out of fear. It bothers me that my country is run by people who I feel couldn't give the first fuck about me, so long as they get richer.
posted by fenriq at 10:45 PM on November 2, 2004

Because they voted? Let me get this straight. Everyone needs to vote, unless you vote for someone I disagree with, then I'm ashamed of you?

Funny stuff.

Who said everyone needs to vote? I say everyone needs to wake up and educate themselves about the world, because you'll find that most people that do are more progressive than now (and I'm not talking about economics here, but about social issues). The fact that people voted doesn't change the fact that Americans are rife with grossly irrational fears, hateful prejudices, and a distinct fear of "the other"
posted by The God Complex at 10:46 PM on November 2, 2004

What margin is required for a recount?
posted by Mossy at 10:46 PM on November 2, 2004

Re: John Titor and the civil war:

He said it was necessary and right, and in the end, better.
posted by Espoo2 at 10:48 PM on November 2, 2004

GOP boosts Senate majority to 52 seats
posted by homunculus at 10:49 PM on November 2, 2004

What margin is required for a recount?

In Ohio, .25%.
posted by gyc at 10:51 PM on November 2, 2004

You know, Kerry's gaining ground in Ohio still at this late hour, and has pulled within 100K votes with 91% reporting, according to the NYT. I don't know if there are more current numbers available.

The doom and gloom may -- and I emphasize may -- be premature.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 10:51 PM on November 2, 2004

If Bush wins this election I will hang my head and wonder how it happened. I will also question the sanity of my own people. I was, however, proud of Americans in Ohio, Florida and other places that endured waits of 4 hours or more just to cast their vote. I have never seen anything like it. If it was all for nothing that will be the saddest aspect of this election.
posted by whatever at 10:52 PM on November 2, 2004

somethingotherthan: I'm proud of you and the others there for investing so much time today in voting. Seriously.

I think I'm open-minded enough that I'd feel that way regardless of who you were voting for ... but that you were on the same side gives me something to cling to. Thanks.

And on that note, I'm going to bed. I have to work tomorrow, and it's late here in MI.
posted by pmurray63 at 10:52 PM on November 2, 2004

Re: John Titor and the civil war:

He said it was necessary and right, and in the end, better.

You do remember he said that the farmlands won and all the costal cities were decimated, right?
posted by VeGiTo at 10:52 PM on November 2, 2004

Well, wait until they start up the draft again and see what happens. I know some will shout me down for this, but please, there is no way to continue defending America's oil interests and prosecute the "War on Terror" without reinstating a draft to maintain combat troop levels. We just don't have enough combat troops and attrition (whether via casualties or scheduled discharge) will need to be addressed. I'm not even sure that Kerry will be able to avoid it if he wins.

Although, from what I've seen, perhaps the Bush & co. plan to avoid a draft is to expand the practice of paying for private mercenaries to fight for us. Might actually work, even... for a while. Mercenaries are expensive, as HM George III (Saxe-Coburg) discovered. Who would have thought we'd have our own Hessians?

I'm past draft age, but my four younger siblings are not. You can imagine how I'll feel if they are conscripted, I'm sure. I think that's the point where America will realize its mistake, but if the mercenary gambit is the plan, we may not see it until far too late.
posted by zoogleplex at 10:52 PM on November 2, 2004

CNN calls Ohio green. See ya in 11 days.
posted by mr.marx at 10:53 PM on November 2, 2004

Unbelievable. PLEASE, stay the fuck out of Canada.

Americans en masse are clearly vile, hateful, willfully ignorant people interested in nothing but their own ill-informed prejudices and irrational fears. I hope America is ready for the new reality they're about to face. The next time there's a 9.11 type tragedy, get ready for a collective world shrug.
...
I can't believe this race is even in the same neighbourhood as close. You have poor people voting against their own interests because they hate gays and abortion, you have polls showing that large percentages of people can't even identify what candidate wants to roll back tax cuts on people who make over 200k. How fucking stupid can you possibly be? How is it even possible to function at that point?

For once, I'm with TGC.

(And someone please send ObL a link to one of these interactive maps. He attacked the wrong states.)
posted by dobbs at 10:54 PM on November 2, 2004

Approaching 1 a.m. CST. Fox + NBC have called Ohio; CNN, ABC and CBS have not. Once again, an election will be decided by spin, not by votes.
posted by gimonca at 10:54 PM on November 2, 2004

bashos_frog:I'm sick of the racists of middle America.
I'm sick of creationism being taught in schools.
I'm sick of people who think driving a SUV is God-given right, but disagreeing with the President is not.
I'm sick of hearing 'raghead' and 'camel-jockey' by folks who get perturbed if I apply an epithet to Tim McVeigh.
I'm sick of hearing America described as a Christian nation.
I'm sick of being told to 'get over it' by people who still refer to the 'war of northern aggression'

FYI: Driving an SUV is, in fact, a right (not "god-given" but still). Your other points are all wacky, or perhaps unduly influenced by an overdose of Freeper threads, but the SUV thing is just weird. You think that I do NOT have a right to drive my SUV?
posted by davidmsc at 10:54 PM on November 2, 2004

now they're taking back their calls for Ohio--OH really is the new FL.
posted by amberglow at 10:55 PM on November 2, 2004

I mean, I don't get it. Bush was exposed as an incompetent, bumbling, ignorant fool in the debates. He had little or no grasp of issues and he just trots out a litany of mindless catchphrases such as "freedom is on the march" and "you can run but you can't hide", often without any meaningful context.

And a majority of Americans seem to lap it up. They love it! They chant and finish his stupid lines and slap each other on the back.
posted by The God Complex at 10:55 PM on November 2, 2004

You'd think people would have learned from 2000 not to jump to conclusions til the votes are counted. It's simple, really.
posted by amberglow at 10:56 PM on November 2, 2004

So who will call NM and get this over with?

Sorry folks, but there are not enough votes in Cuyahoga County.
posted by calwatch at 10:57 PM on November 2, 2004

I LOVE the whining and fits in this thread!

How pitifully you ninnies posture when your overwrought arguments fail! Keep up your show for my amusement! I am just eatin this up, go go, get EVERYONE in. Years of multiple daily anti-Bush posts, all for naught this one evening. Its been a long time coming, I drink deeply from the victory cup this moment, HA HA HA HA HA

I'm gonna have to turn this thread into a scrolling screen saver.

PP, I salute you.
posted by dand at 10:57 PM on November 2, 2004

And at this point, nobody has called 270 votes for Bush, so all the "bizarro" scenarios that could make John Edwards or Dennis Hastert or somebody president could conceivably still come into play.
posted by gimonca at 10:57 PM on November 2, 2004

Mossy: I heard it has to be within .5% in Ohio. Bush is up by 2%.
posted by b_thinky at 10:58 PM on November 2, 2004

For once, I'm with TGC.

You're always with me if we don't talk about Buffy ;)
posted by The God Complex at 10:58 PM on November 2, 2004

People can drive their SUVs all they want, as long as people are also free to disagree with the President & administration without being called traitors and terrorist supporters. This doesn't seem to be the case.

(And assuming they can afford the gas, of course.)
posted by zoogleplex at 10:59 PM on November 2, 2004

dand; lovely to see someone reveling in the pain of others. classy, really, no really.
posted by edgeways at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2004

How the fuck can msnbc have that 'Bush Wins Ohio' headline up there? What kind of monumental retards are they? It's absolutely fucking baffling, the stupidity and the lack of integrity. Why aren't the people who made that decision chained to each other's legs, planting apples on a tree somewhere cold?
posted by bingo at 11:02 PM on November 2, 2004

davidmsc: You think that I do NOT have a right to drive my SUV?

Driving any vehicle is a priviledge, not a right. You prove my point by not knowing that.
posted by bashos_frog at 11:03 PM on November 2, 2004

a hill, that is. But if they want to try planting apples on a tree, they can do that too.
posted by bingo at 11:03 PM on November 2, 2004

now doesn't that make you feel better
the pigs have won tonight
now they can all sleep soundly
and everything is all right.
posted by Devils Slide at 11:04 PM on November 2, 2004

One thing that has become apparent to me is that red-staters vote on their perception of character, and that blue-staters vote on their perception of ideas.

Most Bush voters think he's their kind of guy; they like him; they think he's a good and godly man. Kerry voters don't imagine hanging out with John Kerry or going to church with him; they agree with him.

It's temperament vs. ideas. Right now, the nation is very slightly more personality-oriented. A nation that feeds itself on reality TV is extremely fine in its judgements of personalities and behaviors.

That's why Bush's judgement on Iraq, even if it was wrong, wasn't important -- it was the sort of decision that they like. They like people who behave that way.
posted by argybarg at 11:04 PM on November 2, 2004

There is a gap of only 102,000 votes! Have heart!

All the little chicks with their crimson lips say:
Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks!
posted by bingo at 11:06 PM on November 2, 2004

What will Bush do with a mandate and no need for re-election?
posted by dand at 11:06 PM on November 2, 2004

All of you wondering how Americans could possibly be this misinformed: please read this book.
posted by bingbangbong at 11:06 PM on November 2, 2004

Cults of personality usually turn out very badly for the followers, since they don't operate on facts.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:07 PM on November 2, 2004

It's hard not to feel "elite" when people keep telling you the other side doesn't vote based on facts.
posted by kevspace at 11:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Regardless of whether Kerry wins in Ohio, he still wouldn't have gotten the popular vote. So we won't have the privelege of knowing the average person in this country is reasoned enough to care for the survival of mankind. We will, in the small but not minute possibility he does win, have him as president. For practical purposes that's great but still, it's very depressing. I should have maddening frustration or oceanic sadness or something right now but it's all cancelling out and it all seems surprisingly ho-hum. This may be the first Kafkaesque election ;)

(In the election guess contest thread, despite that I favored Bush, I think I lost - because my margin wasn't extreme enough)
posted by abcde at 11:08 PM on November 2, 2004

Other places have rocks and animals too. Get over yourself.

Well ok rushmc, except for the small fact that I live here, and I love my country. So there. You want to give another four years to Smirky McGee? Fine. To me, he's a lousy caretaker of a very venerable institution. I don't pack up and leave that easily.
posted by PrinceValium at 11:11 PM on November 2, 2004

> I simply don't get it
> I mean, I don't get it.

Ah, the Metafilter theme!

Its not enough to HATE Bush. You have to have something better. Kerry didn't pass the smell test for Joe Sixpack. Can't you see that?
posted by dand at 11:12 PM on November 2, 2004

BTW - nobody has retracted their calls. PBS, CBS, CNN, and ABC have refused to call Ohio. PBS actually signed off the air about half an hour ago, saying see you tomorrow night. The provisionals won't be counted for another week.
posted by PrinceValium at 11:12 PM on November 2, 2004

I feel like an exile in my own country.
posted by whatnot at 11:12 PM on November 2, 2004

18-24 age group the same as last time according to exit polls.
posted by The God Complex at 11:13 PM on November 2, 2004

listen to PV--votes need to be counted.
posted by amberglow at 11:18 PM on November 2, 2004

Eh, don't be too disheartened democratics, Hillary '08 and Obama '16 ^_^
posted by Mossy at 11:19 PM on November 2, 2004

'Tis hard to say who's making the calls and why. MSNBC gives EV at 269, CNN at 211 and CBS at 221.
posted by bluedaniel at 11:19 PM on November 2, 2004

Amazing.

This election is an absolutely amazing phenomena. This man can do no wrong. It’s hard to say exactly what this says about the majority of Americans. Does this mean that Americans support mobilising a gigantic war machine to invade a country at their leaders whim? Anyone who would give the war a moments thought would realise that the reasons for invading Iraq all proved wrong and many were outright lies. Is that ok for the American people? It’s all rather astounding.
posted by cmacleod at 11:21 PM on November 2, 2004

PrinceValium: I love my country too. That's why I left. I couldn't stand to see it go down this road. It's like watching your first real girlfriend turn into a crack whore.

I visited for a week in July, and it was kind of scary, but I thought if the election goes well, there'd be some hope, and I'd come back and try to build a life there.

Now it is clear that most Americans no longer care about freedom, human rights (or dignity), or anything other than the contents of their wallet, gas tank, and television. And they're stupid enough to believe whatever the lies the government spews at them, no matter the evidence in plain sight.

I was literally packing to return, and now... I just don't know.

My parents voted for Bush. Let them travel 11,000 miles to see their grandson - I don't think I'm gonna set foot there for at least four more years.

Although, I admin, after a couple of fifths of Jim Beam, and couple of days of crying and breaking shit, I may feel differently.

Hope the liquor store is open.
posted by bashos_frog at 11:22 PM on November 2, 2004

Does this mean that Americans support mobilising a gigantic war machine to invade a country at their leaders whim?

On the evidence, the answer to that is clearly Yes.

Be ready for more of it.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:23 PM on November 2, 2004

PrinceValium: I love my country too. That's why I left. I couldn't stand to see it go down this road. It's like watching your first real girlfriend turn into a crack whore.

I watched that exact thing happen, bashos, and you are absolutely correct, what I'm feeling now is very much like what I felt then. I don't recommend it to anyone.

I should say that she survived it and cleaned up... mostly. But she is a pale shadow of what she was, not right in the head. A real shame.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:26 PM on November 2, 2004

[...] One voter in five said moral values were the most important issue driving the vote, and almost eight out of 10 backed Bush. Terrorism was almost as high in importance, and 85 percent of those voters also supported the president. Kerry found his strongest support -- more than 80 percent -- among those who named the economy and jobs and the war in Iraq as their most important concerns.

The decision to invade Iraq split the electorate almost evenly, according to the polling, although more think it is going badly than going well. Those who opposed the war and those who think it is failing went 4 to 1 for Kerry. Supporters of the Iraq policy and optimists backed Bush by equally lopsided margins.

The issue agenda varied by state. In Ohio, the economy and jobs topped the list, named by twice as many voters as singled out Iraq. But in New Hampshire, the reverse was true. And in Florida, terrorism topped Iraq and the economy.

These issue splits were overlaid on a foundation of an electoral map displaying the deep social divisions in the country. Despite some pre-election polls suggesting that Bush might double his share of the African American vote, nine out of 10 of those votes were going once again to the Democratic nominee, polls showed.

The number of blacks turning out appears to have been higher this year. If the exit poll for Pennsylvania is an accurate indication, African Americans made up about 13 percent of the electorate, almost double their share in 2000. Democrats had mounted a massive registration drive in Philadelphia, only to see it partially offset by an increased Republican vote in mid-state rural counties.

Kerry was also winning a clear majority of Latino voters, claiming more than half their votes and beating Bush by 15 percentage points, surveys showed. Bush may have run better among Hispanics than he did four years ago, but Simon B. Rosenberg, head of the New Democratic Coalition, which began a targeted media campaign in Florida and other states years ago, said the results in that state broke the pattern of complete GOP domination of the Cuban American vote.

Overall, white voters were favoring Bush by about 54 percent to 44 percent -- similar to his 2000 margin. The exit poll indicated that about 22 percent of yesterday's voters were white evangelical or born-again Christians. White House strategists had made a major effort to recruit more voters from that group, but no comparable figure for 2000 was available.

The gender gap persisted this year, but shrank a little. Bush was leading by about five percentage points among men, down from 11 points in 2000, while among women Kerry held about a nine-point advantage, two points less than Gore enjoyed four years ago.

In some key states, the gender gap closed almost entirely. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, a majority of men voted for Kerry, reversing the 2000 exit poll result. Bush also lost ground among men in Florida but still held the lead. In all three states, Kerry led among women.

Republican fears that the flow of the news would hurt Bush appeared to be confirmed by the exit polls. Those who said they decided during the final week -- about one out of nine voters -- went for Kerry by 10 points. Despite a video message from Osama bin Laden that some Democrats feared would move voters to Bush, the headlines about kidnappings, slayings and bloodshed in Iraq seemed to have had a stronger effect in the other direction.

Another notable feature of the election was the Kerry edge among voters younger than 30. Their ranks grew as much as those of older voters, who usually are much more reliable in showing up at the polls. And those between 18 and 29 -- one-sixth of the electorate -- were going for Kerry by 13 points last night. [...]

"Schism of 2000 More Sharply Divides Voters"
posted by allaboutgeorge at 11:27 PM on November 2, 2004

I think we are forgetting what happened in 2000.
Gore WON, and there were fireworks and confetti and stevie wonder. . . but Bush didn't concede FL.

The same thing is happening right now, except vice versa. Put your shotguns away.
posted by Espoo2 at 11:27 PM on November 2, 2004

> reasons for invading Iraq all proved wrong

The main thing we realize is that foreign affairs are above our heads. If it takes more than 3 secs to explain, we can't understand it. The relations between ME tribes and subsects of Islam? Forget it.

The Bush team had to boil the reasons down into something simple for the public: "Saddam has WMD" was the best bet.

The real reason for being ther is that Iraq was an ongoing problem, and we needed a base to drain the swamp that is the Middle East after we were attacked by ME Muslim terrorists.

So they didn't lie, they gave us what we could handle.
posted by dand at 11:29 PM on November 2, 2004

So they didn't lie, they gave us what we could handle.

Even if you believe that, how do you account for the miserable way it's been handled since they, ummm, accomplished the mission?
posted by The God Complex at 11:31 PM on November 2, 2004

Nixon won in '72. His victory didn't last long.
posted by euphorb at 11:31 PM on November 2, 2004

I can handle more than that dand.
posted by dazed_one at 11:31 PM on November 2, 2004

249-238, ooh, looks like it might be a little closer than it looked a little while ago.

Good. I was feeling sad.
posted by fenriq at 11:34 PM on November 2, 2004

Was Edwards crying?
posted by yevge at 11:35 PM on November 2, 2004

Gotta ask again, fenriq, where did you see this?
posted by protocool at 11:36 PM on November 2, 2004

The main thing we realize is that foreign affairs are above our heads.

No they're not. They take a bit of study, but they're not over our heads. Deciding that they are is willingly abdicating your power, responsibility and authority as a voting citizen of this country to someone who promises they will take care of it for you.

So they didn't lie, they gave us what we could handle.

What we could handle. Incredible. Do you have any idea how pathetic you sound to me, a proud voting American who makes it a point to take some time and learn about the world and what's going on in it?

People of the world, that is what is wrong with America. The majority here doesn't really want to deal with facts or allow themselves to believe they have the smarts, guts and courage to really understand what's going on and make well-informed decisions about it.

Most Americans would rather hand it over to their "betters," the aristocrats who know all about these things, apparently.

Sad.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:37 PM on November 2, 2004

> Even if you believe that, how do you account for the miserable way it's been handled since they, ummm, accomplished the mission?

Simple - the media needs a narrative that keeps the problem ongoing. The reporting on Iraq as being Fallujah is akin to reporting on CA, but only from Watts.

It will be years before the results can truly be judged a success or failure. The avg American does not enjoy turning every minor mishap in a police action into armageddon. Nothing ever goes 100% our way. Somalia?

After all, we are still in Kosovo 10 years later. Iraq will be 25 years.
posted by dand at 11:38 PM on November 2, 2004

Good. I was feeling sad.

Doesn't matter. Kerry should take michigan, wisconsin, and hawaii. That means he needs Ohio no matter what. He's down by 125k with very few votes left to count and 250k provisional to count in eleven days (!!!). Either way, what are the odds Kerry gets 195k of 250k in order to make up that margin?
posted by The God Complex at 11:40 PM on November 2, 2004

I might add that anyone who can memorize the team rosters and stats of their favorite sports team for the last 20 years, or running a farm, or tearing down a small-block Chevy engine and rebuilding it with their own hands and no manual, or following the tangled relationships of their favorite celebrities, reality show stars or soap opera players is well and truly intellectually capable of understanding world affairs.

If only you just would.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:40 PM on November 2, 2004

protocool, sorry, CNN.

And now its 249-242!

It all comes down to Ohio this time.
posted by fenriq at 11:40 PM on November 2, 2004

I feel like an exile in my own country.

If you were born between 1963 and 1982, Generation X is about 4 times smaller than the Baby Boomers, we are in the shadow numerically. Baby boomers are older now, they are more conservative. We are in a conservative country for the forseable future. Signing off for the night, a voice from the wilderness.
posted by stbalbach at 11:41 PM on November 2, 2004

(so Kerry losing Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada are all irrelevant, which it looks like he will)
posted by The God Complex at 11:41 PM on November 2, 2004

We should not be thinking that hard about Ohio, for one simple reason: it would not be enough. Not really. No Democrat can govern with a popular minority of this magnitude; Bush was considered illegitimate by many having lost by less than a point. (He got away with it simply because it took everyone by surprise that he wasn't going to govern from the center.) It would take a miracle for Kerry to be allowed to take office by sneaking out a close electoral win, and just about nothing from his agenda would ever be enacted.

I admit that I hate America right now, and especially hate the party that has convinced the country not just to be ignorant but to celebrate ignorance. But I accept that it's my job to work to improve it instead of leaving or giving up. And I accept that it may take more nights of terrible defeat like this, and years of grief and pain.

And to the conservatives: way to be gracious in victory, guys. Bunch of dicks. The way you're running the country into the ground, we will eventually have the cold comfort of unequivocally displacing the bulk of your ilk from office and trying to turn it around. Just not this time.
posted by Epenthesis at 11:43 PM on November 2, 2004

Uh, sorry, "or RUN a farm, tear down a small-block Chevy, follow the tangled relationships." Got my tenses juggled. Or it could be "is capable of memorizing," which would fix all those.

I'm channeling elpapacito, apparently. It's late. :)
posted by zoogleplex at 11:43 PM on November 2, 2004

> They take a bit of study, but they're not over our heads.

Right, and you learned to plow from reading a book.

It takes years of living somewhere before you figure out how "it works" there. What's more, in forign policy, every action has multiple reactions, and requires a deep understanding of all actors involved.

Now ur an expert on world affairs - Africa, Asia, Europe, Russia, every Middle Eastern tribe, Far East...
posted by dand at 11:46 PM on November 2, 2004

dand: Its not enough to HATE Bush. You have to have something better. Kerry didn't pass the smell test for Joe Sixpack. Can't you see that?

Well, yeah. I also don't buy the sky is falling claims having survived worse under Reagan. I also have my gripes about how the two political crime organizations at the center of all of this behaved in this election.

I also don't think that this changes much of anything. I'm still pretty much bitter about how the left took a vacation during 6 years of the Clinton presidency before waking up to an administration that just didn't care.

b_f: I love my country too....

Bull. fucking. shit. If this sort of self-serving rationalization and a bunch of alcohol helps you get through the night, be my guest. But do us a bloody favor and don't blow smoke up our collective asses about loving the United States from a nice distance away where your responsibility involves spending 5 minutes to fill out an absentee ballot. At least, don't do it tonight, and as a flaming liberal from a red state I gotta say, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out darling because you certainly are not any good for me here.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 11:47 PM on November 2, 2004

I have to wonder how the popular vote would turn out in the states if it wasn't an electoral college. How many more people in major urban centres would vote if it actually mattered? How many more people in California or New York or Chicago or Boston? How would the election change if the candidates didn't have to pander to social conservatives in Ohio (Kerry is just lucky the economy sucks or he wouldn't have had a chance)?

I think the system in place right now is fatally flawed. I don't know if a one-person-one-vote system would work, but it certainly seems like it would move the American system away from its tragic and misguided concentration on just a handful of swing states.
posted by The God Complex at 11:51 PM on November 2, 2004

CNN's reporting an internal debate among Democrats as to how far they should push the Ohio provisional ballots.

Dear Democrats,

The entire fucking world is watching. You have nothing to lose and the Presidency to gain. Pussy out now and you've lost my vote forever.

Yours,

myself and people like me
posted by bingbangbong at 11:51 PM on November 2, 2004

Man, reading that take on foreign policy, I'm really starting to think 1984..

War is peace. Especially if you have a war on an abstract.
Freedom is slavery. Hi Patriot Act. Hi debt. Hi terror alerts.
Ignorance is strength. We shouldn't be overburdened with facts
posted by Mossy at 11:53 PM on November 2, 2004

DailyKos Blogger catches CNN pushing last minute Ohio poll result switcheroo
posted by troutfishing at 11:55 PM on November 2, 2004

I'm not an expert, but I do try to pay attention and have some understanding of what's going on elsewhere on this planet and in other cultures. It's not perfect, but I'll say it's a damn sight better than a whole lot of other Americans' knowledge. At least I actually have gone out of my way to read some history and books about the world that were written by the people from other places, not just the watered-down crap they tried to feed me in high school.

And don't make assumptions. I learned to push a plow by actually using a plow on a farm, with a tractor. I liked the Troy-Bilt tiller a lot too. I know a lot about rural life in America, as well as city life, because I spent about equal time in each. I've learned quite a bit about other places on earth through study and getting to know people from those places, although I haven't been to many other countries.

As I said it's not that hard for any American to do what I've done, provided they take the time and interest. Which at least 52% do not.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:58 PM on November 2, 2004

right on cue, here come the conspiracy theories...
posted by David Dark at 11:58 PM on November 2, 2004

Heh... before somebody bites me on it, the tractor PULLED the plow. Not pushed. Pushing a plow is a lot harder work than pulling it. Just ask any ox you meet.
posted by zoogleplex at 12:03 AM on November 3, 2004

Bush is up by 137k in Ohio and the Precints still outstanding are from Counties that have gone for Bush. I don't see a good case for Kerry not to concede soon. I hear only a minority of provisional ballots end up being considered a valid vote so Kerry would have to get the vote of every provisional ballot to overtake Bush.
posted by gyc at 12:03 AM on November 3, 2004

KJS: Fuck you too.
I wouldn't have even left my country if the folks in charge weren't asleep at the wheel long enough to let a bunch of terrorists blow up my neighborhood.

I wouldn't have left if the air I was assured was safe hadn't made my infant son cough up his lungs for two weeks straight.

I wouldn't have left if my wife didn't have fucking nightmares every night after watching people jump to their deaths out of our living room window, wondering what she was going to do as the toxic smoke started to blow our way..

I paid my taxes for 20 years, so that the people in charge could not only fail to protect me and my family, but they could also fail to catch the people responsible for planning 9/11.

And as far as my responsibility goes - I've spent plenty of hours here in Democrats Abroad meetings, multi-hour caucuses, and I've given money out of a salary low enough that which store I shop for groceries in actually makes a difference to my budget.

I know a dozen people who have done more, and flown back to Florida at their own expense to help monitor the elections, and I wish I had enough spare cash to do more than throw $50 their way.

There's seven million of us abroad - possibly a fair sight more than live in your red state, and you don't do us any good either.

So, fuck you and fuck your neighbors, people like you don't do me any good while I wait three hours for my wife to clear immigration. And you certainly don't make it any easier to feel at home in the U.S.
posted by bashos_frog at 12:05 AM on November 3, 2004

CNN's saying that it's 249 - 242 for bush. Does that mean there's still no hope?
posted by dazed_one at 12:05 AM on November 3, 2004

Yeah, it looks like it's over to me.

I'd like to re-post the first part of that lengthy Henry Miller quote I put up earlier, because I think it's eerily applicable, even though it was written sixty years ago (plus probably nobody read it because it was so long):

We are accustomed to think of ourselves as an emancipated people; we say we are democratic, liberty-loving, free of prejudice and hatred. This is the melting pot, the seal of a great human experiment. Beautiful words, full of noble, idealistic sentiment. Actually we are a vulgar, pushing mob whose passions are easily mobilized by demagogues, newspaper men, religious quacks, agitators and such like. To call this a society of free peoples is blasphemous. What have we to offer the world beside the superabundant loot which we recklessly plunder from the earth under the maniacal delusion that this insane activity represents progress and enlightenment? The land of opportunity has become the land of senseless sweat and struggle. The goal of all of our striving has long been forgotten. We no longer wish to succor the oppressed and homeless; there is no room in this great, empty land for those who, like our forefathers before us, now seek a place of refuge. Millions of men and women are, or were until very recently, on relief, condemned like guinea pigs to a life of forced idleness. The world meanwhile looks to us with a desperation such as it has never known before. Where is the democratic spirit? Where are the leaders?

posted by The God Complex at 12:07 AM on November 3, 2004

I just don't understand. How could these people ... ?
posted by DrJohnEvans at 12:11 AM on November 3, 2004

CNN's saying that it's 249 - 242 for bush. Does that mean there's still no hope?

There's still 20 votes worth of Ohio, so it depends on what your version of hope is.
posted by bingbangbong at 12:12 AM on November 3, 2004

.


I'm leaving now. Otherwise I'll end up throwing on Elliot Smith's "Needle in the Hay" and going all Richie Tenebaum on you fuckers.
posted by The God Complex at 12:17 AM on November 3, 2004

"The Fall of Empire, gentlemen, is a massive thing, however, and not easily fought. It is dictated by a rising bureaucracy, a receding initiative, a freezing of caste, a damming of curiosity -- a hundred other factors. It has been going on, as I have said, for centuries, and it is too majestic and massive a movement to stop."

"Q: Is it not obvious to anyone that the Empire is as strong as it ever was?"

"A: The appearance of strength is all about you. It would seem to last forever. However, Mr. Advocate, the rotten tree-trunk, until the very moment when the storm-blast breaks it in two, has all the appearance of might it ever had..."

From Asimov's Foundation, the Trial of Hari Seldon.

Written some 53 years ago, and in science fiction, but I think it applies.

And now to bed. Good night.
posted by zoogleplex at 12:18 AM on November 3, 2004

> Squeaking through re-election during a time of war is hardly a sign of strength.

How about the greatest Democrat personality of modern times, Bill Clinton, losing the House and most governships during his terms? Bush beat him by gaining the Senate and holding it.
posted by dand at 12:19 AM on November 3, 2004

Oh, one other thing. I'd be interested in what any of you think about what I said earlier about the voting system in the United States. Doesn't anyone else think the popular vote would be very different if people in major democratic strongholds like Los Angeles and New York had more reason to vote?
posted by The God Complex at 12:19 AM on November 3, 2004

I think Kerry should concede as well if the margin remains over 100k, unless he has knowledge of some uber-fraud in Ohio.

It really hurts to write this; I knew at the time I shouldn't have looked at the exit polls but somehow optimism got the better of me.

At least the democrats have enough votes to block any obnoxious nomination to the Supreme Court. That's the only bit of hope I can draw from tonight.

Well, actually, there is one other bit of hope. If we have to suffer under four more years of Bush with the same rate of fuckups as the previous four years, then I hope the American people notice, scandals result, and the Republicans are dead in the water after '08.

But thats naive. The (bare) majority of people in this country will vote for the Republicans, even if they disagree with their economic policies and foreign policy, simply because the Republicans seem to believe in the same God.

Can't fight against God and I don't want to see Demos abandoning principle simple to win votes as a low rent Republican clone (as the few winning democrats do in my red home state).

Time for the Laphroaig.
posted by pandaharma at 12:20 AM on November 3, 2004

TGC, yeah I think it would make a difference, but I imagine it would be offset by increased Repub voting in the flyover states.
posted by chris24 at 12:23 AM on November 3, 2004

I'm deeply surprised, and it doesn't have to do with prior wishful thinking. During the primaries, I thought Bush was going to win. It was only into January or so that things changed.

There's so many numbers and historical precedents that have said for the last ten months that Bush won't be reelected. The exit poll results showed numbers very close to what all these other things have been showing for ten months. And then the actual election results are very different.

I'd really like to see an explanation for this. Is Rove's strategy to pull in the supposed four million evangelical votes the explanation? If so, how come this influence hasn't shown up before now? And there's talk now that the independents didn't break as strongly to the challenger as they were expected to do according to the "incumbent rule". What happened? Josh Marshall is saying that it's apparent that the young vote, which was thought to be significantly up this election, didn't materialize.

I'm appalled at the likliehood of a Bush win. The only possible consolation I can imagine is what other's have mentioned: there's a lot of chickens out there just now beginning to come home to roost. Nixon '72 may be a pretty appropriate comparison. But Bush has seemingly dodged this election bullet, why not the scandal bullet and the Iraq-mess bullet, too?

I don't compare this administration to Reagan's at all. Reagan and his people stood for a lot of things that I don't agree with, and there were some crooks and really bad things that went on in his admin, but overall I have a strong sense that he and his people were committed conservatives. I don't think that's true for Bush's admin. I think these people are opportunists. On a range of issues they've betrayed conservative ideals.

I'm bitterly disapointed, and I really do think that tonight's results are very strange and suprising compared to what close analysis of the trends and numbers of the last ten months have predicted. Even so, I'm not inclined to believe allegations of organized fraud. It looks to me more like there's an unaccounted factor at work here, a factor that people, excepting maybe Rove, didn't anticipate. But it should be noted that there's been a fair number of insider reports from the Bush campaign this week that's shown they were becoming pessimistic. They're probably as surprised as anyone.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 12:25 AM on November 3, 2004

For those still awake and in need of inspiration, please read Robert F. Kennedy's speech, Jan. 4, 1968.

Now we are in a year in which we elect a president of the United States; it is a year of debate and of argument, of political battles and personal clash. The most urgent problems of our own society, from the war in Vietnam to the smoldering discontent in our cities, will be weighed and analyzed, and solutions offered. Yet this is a year in which America must examine not only the candidates, but also the country - must ask not only who will lead us, but also where we wish to be led. We must look not only to immediate crises, but also to the nature and the direction of the civilization that we wish to build, that we wish to take part in. The great national debate must not become a contest of only particular programs. We need discussion, we need understanding of the most basic and far-reaching goals of American civilization. But we have been told by cabinet officers and commentators, by journalists and citizens, that America is deep in the malaise of spirit, and dividing Americans from one another by their age, their views, and the color of their skin. We have fought great wars, made unprecedented sacrifices at home and abroad, made prodigious efforts to achieve personal and national wealth. Yet we ourselves are uncertain of what we have achieved and whether we like what we have accomplished.

Now demonstrators shout down government officials and the government drafts protestors; anarchists threaten to burn the country down, and some have begun to try. While tanks have patrolled American cities and machine guns have been fired at American children, a poet proclaims that throat-cutting time is growing nigh and we're going to be ready while a National Guard general speaks calmly of plans to use heavy weapons in the city of New York. Our young people turn from the Peace Corps and public commitment of the early 1960s to lives of disengagement and sometimes despair, turned on with drugs and turning off from America. Truly, we seem to fulfill the vision of Yeats: "things fall apart, the center cannot hold. Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world." Entangled abroad and embattled at home, America searches for answers, not just to specific programs, but to the great question, What do we stand for? Where do we want to go? Do we stand for our wealth? Is that what is important about America? Is that what is significant about the United States? Asked better perhaps, are we really so wealthy?

...

Beyond our borders, we have become the greatest force in the world. Some have even spoken of us as the new imperial power. Even if we should desire such a role, it is no longer possible, as the history of the last 20 years has so unmistakably shown. The day has passed when a country can successfully rule distant lands by force. The issue for us is whether we will live as an island in the midst of a hostile world community or whether we will be joined with other independent nations in search of common goals. We must understand this, because so much depends on what is going to happen in the future as to whether this concept is clear to us. Other countries will associate themselves with us, not because they will be forced to, but because they find in our acts and in our policies a common interest and an understanding of their own ideals and their own aspirations; an understanding of the values that they can respect and admire; an understanding of the values that they can strive to emulate; thus consideration of our wealth and our power brings us full circle to the question with which we began: What do we stand for? Nor should we be surprised, for this is the most powerful and constant lesson of all of history.

The wars and the conquests, the politics and the intrigues of state are soon covered by the years. The triumph of Athens, the empire of Rome, the march of armies, the names of governors - all these did leave some imprint, but it is the ideas and the statutes, the plays of Sophocles and the philosophy of Plato that endure most vividly shaping and enriching our lives to this very day. The mastery of transient events, our accomplishments, our victories will ultimately matter far less than what we contribute - all of us - in this country to the liberation of the human spirit. That is what we have always stood for in the past, that it is what we must stand for at the moment. That is what has given us our unique position, our unprecedented strength. That is why, in fact, we are proud to be Americans.

For two hundred years, America has meant a vision of national independence and personal freedom and justice between men. But whether it will continue to mean this will depend on the answers to difficult and complex problems. It will depend on whether we sit content in our storehouses, dieting while others starve, buying eight million new cars a year while most of the world goes without shoes. It will depend on whether we act against crime and its causes and wipe the stain of violence from this land. It will depend on whether we can halt and can reverse the tide of ever greater centralization in Washington and return the power to the American people in their local communities. It will depend on whether we can turn the private genius of industry to the service of great public ends, using comprehensive tax incentives to help industry create the jobs, train the workers and build the housing, which all of the efforts of the federal government have, so far, failed to do. It will depend on whether we still hold, as the framers proclaimed, a decent respect for the opinions of mankind, or whether we will act as if no other nations existed, flaunting our power and flaunting our wealth against the judgment and desires of neutrals and allies alike.

posted by PrinceValium at 12:27 AM on November 3, 2004

I want to hear more about troutfishing's link.

Rove at work? How deep does this go?
posted by Espoo2 at 12:28 AM on November 3, 2004

I'm going to bed too. And it's only 5:30 pm over here.
posted by bashos_frog at 12:32 AM on November 3, 2004

By the way, the possibility that the Ohio provisional ballots could break very heavily to Kerry, contrary to the statewide results so far, is not farfetched. This is because of all the GOP's efforts in Ohio to contest newly registered voters and the like: their assumption was that a whole lot of new voters, and voters in minority precincts, would be pro-Kerry and they aimed to contest as many of these as possible. The contested votes became provisional votes. So the provisional votes maybe be overwhelmingly pro-Kerry.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 12:33 AM on November 3, 2004

Espoo2 - "Look to here : The more I think about it, the more pissed off I am that the networks are calling Ohio when the state is still clearly undecided.

The odds may be slight, but this is Democracy. Let the fucking votes be counted.

And if the votes say Bush won, then great. Call it then.

But there is no reason to do so when the outcome is still so clearly in doubt."
posted by troutfishing at 12:43 AM on November 3, 2004

b_f: You know, I'm sorry that the United States did not protect you and your family. I do not doubt that you have serious grievances.

But, you are sitting in a completely different country and your concept of creating change is sitting in a nice comfortable meeting of Democrats living abroad and, oh my gawsh, donating money while treating your former neighbors with a contempt that borders on bigotry. Pardon me if I'm feeling highly underwhelmed by this wonderful show of love by proxy. Change is not going to happen by proxy, it happens because every day you get on the bus and you engage in conversations with your neighbors. The real work in democracy is not in sitting in party meetings and throwing money at problems, it happens by putting a human face on the issues, by making your face visible in local community meetings, by (and this word is highly overused, and this is one of the few where it fits) networking.

So you can run, you can get away from the bad air, the lack of energy policy, the foriegn policy, the possibility that people you love might be drafted, the deficit, the ban on stem cell research, the appointment of convicted criminals to national security offices. You can get away from the Bush administration. You can escape from the mess that Bush has made, leaving it to working poor people like me. And I can respect the decision that your fortunes would be better off as a citizen of another country.

What you can't do, and get a free pass on, is say that you are going to do this, in the same sentence when you say you love the United States. Sorry, but that's just a phony line.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 12:45 AM on November 3, 2004

Espoo2 - "The more I think about it, the more pissed off I am that the networks are calling Ohio when the state is still clearly undecided.

The odds may be slight, but this is Democracy. Let the fucking votes be counted.

And if the votes say Bush won, then great. Call it then.

But there is no reason to do so when the outcome is still so clearly in doubt."
posted by troutfishing at 12:45 AM on November 3, 2004

It's kind of funny (at least for someone that's still up at 4 in the morning) that the networks that didn't call Ohio have called Nevada for Bush while the others that called Ohio for Bush all haven't called Nevada for Bush. It seems none of them, not even FOX, wants Bush to be able to declare victory.
posted by gyc at 1:08 AM on November 3, 2004

What you can't do, and get a free pass on, is say that you are going to do this, in the same sentence when you say you love the United States. Sorry, but that's just a phony line.

(I can't sleep)

You may be right.

I should have said "I loved my country" - past tense. And I did love it, but not anymore. America is no longer what it once was to me - a land based on the most noble ideals of men.

Instead, it has become a land that where the majority of people are some combination of wacky fundamentalist, propaganda-swilling, jingoistic, greedy know-nothings, and those too apathetic to care. And it is run by the most craven, amoral, power-hungry bunch I have ever seen.

What little hope remains for the more enlightened, idealistic, industrious areas in the northeast and west coast would be better served by secession from the union.

I sincerely wish you luck as you try to make some changes, but from over here it looks like you're rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. I wish I could convince myself that there was something still alive in America that was worth saving, that was worth risking my family's safety and freedom for - but all I see down that path, is a front row seat for the decline into some kind of American version of bread and circuses and a homegrown pseudo-fascist corporatism. I might get a job and a car and a house, but only if I don't make waves, and I don't look too closely as my country exploits, tortures and kills at home and around the world, in the name of the Christian God.

Much as I can't believe it - the terrorists have won.
posted by bashos_frog at 2:00 AM on November 3, 2004

> Much as I can't believe it - the terrorists have won.

Gosh, that's just awful. I thought we were choosing between a big douche and a turd sandwich. I had no idea the terrorist were runnning, too. I'm very sorry for my part in making the terrorist win. How can I make it up to you? Please don't secede, your wise posts are cruicial to this country.
posted by dand at 2:12 AM on November 3, 2004

Methinks freedom is on the march.
Right to Canada.
posted by Busithoth at 2:30 AM on November 3, 2004

Andy Card, Chief of Staff, declaring Bush the winner on TV, collecting NV and OH. 286 EV.
posted by dand at 2:47 AM on November 3, 2004

Le Monde : "We Are All Al Queda Now"

I don't think this will be over for a long time. Democrats gave up too early in 2000, what have they got to lose by contesting this for weeks and weeks? They know how bad 4 more years of Bush will be, so they will fight to the bitter, bitter end.

Personally, I think all those folks who said "America don't need the rest of the world to fight terra" are about to find out if this is true.

Selfishly, hopefully this result will piss off the British left enough for them to get rid of Blair.
posted by fullerine at 3:07 AM on November 3, 2004

Yay, fear and ignorance win again! I look forward to four more years of right-wing hate and thuggery, which will hopefully inspire some truly badass new punk rock.

/me hunkers down for a new dark age
posted by majcher at 6:59 AM on November 3, 2004

George W. Bush was re-elected.
posted by David Dark at 8:17 AM on November 3, 2004

Diebold and Halliburton won the election.

America and humanity lost.
posted by chicobangs at 8:26 AM on November 3, 2004

I hope you enjoyed your elections, America. I don't think there will be any more of those.
posted by muckster at 8:50 AM on November 3, 2004

Wow...re-reading this thread, I am absolutely amazed that Republicans/conservatives are so often stereotyped as cold-hearted, greedy, mean-spirited SOBs...when the evidence in this thread seems to indicate that "progressives" (or liberals, democrats, whatever) are the mean-spirited, pessimistic, cold-hearted creatures.
posted by davidmsc at 9:40 PM on November 10, 2004