Oilmageddon 2: The FUD
July 19, 2010 3:09 PM Subscribe
When seafloor seepage was detected near the DWH wellhead, Admiral Allen wrote a strongly worded letter demanding a contingency plan from BP. Now the oil cap is also leaking, and pressure in the well is below its target.
While the coast guard is insists there is no seismic trace of seabed cracks, an alarmist but well-cited theory warns that drilling unstable formations could trigger a geological cataclysm paralleling the Permian extinction. Fears of such an event might partially explain the apparent collusion between industry and government in creating a media blackout.
Previously, a free net book on the subject.
While the coast guard is insists there is no seismic trace of seabed cracks, an alarmist but well-cited theory warns that drilling unstable formations could trigger a geological cataclysm paralleling the Permian extinction. Fears of such an event might partially explain the apparent collusion between industry and government in creating a media blackout.
Previously, a free net book on the subject.
This post was deleted for the following reason: The load-bearing pillar at the center of this post appears to be a pile of silly woo-woo. Not great post material. -- cortex
Not with a bang but a braaaap.
posted by Kinbote at 3:12 PM on July 19, 2010 [3 favorites]
posted by Kinbote at 3:12 PM on July 19, 2010 [3 favorites]
Hee, hee, hee. Braaaap.
posted by Michael Roberts at 3:13 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by Michael Roberts at 3:13 PM on July 19, 2010
That article has been doing the rounds and it is unutterably stupid. It cites a whole lot of stuff, but fails to cite anyone who makes any of the claims that the article is centered on. It's just pulled out of the author's ass, basically.
posted by unSane at 3:18 PM on July 19, 2010 [12 favorites]
posted by unSane at 3:18 PM on July 19, 2010 [12 favorites]
What is braaap? Explain inside joke, please.
The thing about "braaap" is, it never stays inside for long.
posted by EmGeeJay at 3:19 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
The thing about "braaap" is, it never stays inside for long.
posted by EmGeeJay at 3:19 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
it's an onomatopoeic noise approximating a belch or a fart.
posted by boo_radley at 3:20 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by boo_radley at 3:20 PM on July 19, 2010
Only the application of copious sheets of extremely thin aluminum plates carefully hand molded to our crania will save us now.
posted by y2karl at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010 [14 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010 [14 favorites]
That article has been doing the rounds and it is unutterably stupid. It cites a whole lot of stuff, but fails to cite anyone who makes any of the claims that the article is centered on. It's just pulled out of the author's ass, basically.
So, would you say it's all just a bunch of hot air?
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
So, would you say it's all just a bunch of hot air?
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
After this happens, as civilization enters its inevitable death throws, I'll look forward to TV specials on how to explain how come the world has to end before they grow up to kids and to listening to government wonks explain why this shouldn't dampen our enthusiasm for more offshore drilling.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010
hah. We can't say anything insightful about planetary extinction, but we are in our element when the question is "WHAT IS THIS BRAP NOISE?"
posted by boo_radley at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010 [5 favorites]
posted by boo_radley at 3:21 PM on July 19, 2010 [5 favorites]
Whoops, looks like they botched up the spelling of that article's byline. I didn't think it was possible to mangle "Chicken Little" so badly.
posted by The Winsome Parker Lewis at 3:22 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by The Winsome Parker Lewis at 3:22 PM on July 19, 2010
fwiw, both Allen and almost everyone involved concede the nearby seepage is unrelated to the current disaster and that there are lots of natural seepage in the GoM. The pressure has been increasing steadily on the cap and most of the seepage at the cap (reported as of about an hour ago) is in the neighborhood of a few bubbles at a time, and there is some talk that that might be a different process altogether
It is very important to keep in mind this cap was not intended to be the fix, there has been a bit of too much irrational exuberance over how well the cap has worked so far. to the tune that BP is now playing PR games in saying they won't take it off/open it up unless the government orders them to and if that happens well then it is the governments fault there is now oil spilling into the gulf.
At this point it sounds like if the cap is opened it would be at least 3 days before pressure drops enough for them to attach collector hoses onto it.
posted by edgeways at 3:23 PM on July 19, 2010 [2 favorites]
It is very important to keep in mind this cap was not intended to be the fix, there has been a bit of too much irrational exuberance over how well the cap has worked so far. to the tune that BP is now playing PR games in saying they won't take it off/open it up unless the government orders them to and if that happens well then it is the governments fault there is now oil spilling into the gulf.
At this point it sounds like if the cap is opened it would be at least 3 days before pressure drops enough for them to attach collector hoses onto it.
posted by edgeways at 3:23 PM on July 19, 2010 [2 favorites]
boo_radley we are, apparently, well aware of our epistemic limits.
posted by oddman at 3:24 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by oddman at 3:24 PM on July 19, 2010
The only thing scarier than this guy's article about how BP's ongoing ecological disaster is going to kill everyone and everything on the planet is this guy's poetry.
posted by EmGeeJay at 3:25 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by EmGeeJay at 3:25 PM on July 19, 2010
I've read that article before, and it seems pretty clear that the theory comes completely out of the author's imagination. All of the citations are either about the Permian Extinction OR the BP leak.
posted by justkevin at 3:26 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by justkevin at 3:26 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Call me a hopeless romantic, but if we're all perishing in a manmade planetary apocalypse I'd really prefer the Large Hadron Collider begin spitting out black holes than being suffocated by a goddamn oil conglomerate.
posted by ecurtz at 3:28 PM on July 19, 2010 [6 favorites]
posted by ecurtz at 3:28 PM on July 19, 2010 [6 favorites]
I'd really prefer the Large Hadron Collider begin spitting out black holes
Would you accept black tarballs?
posted by Salvor Hardin at 3:31 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Would you accept black tarballs?
posted by Salvor Hardin at 3:31 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Well, can't we point the LHC at the well, and get rid of the oil with a black hole? Everybody wins!
posted by qvantamon at 3:33 PM on July 19, 2010 [2 favorites]
posted by qvantamon at 3:33 PM on July 19, 2010 [2 favorites]
Since when is mefi a conspiracy theorist site?
posted by outlandishmarxist at 3:36 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by outlandishmarxist at 3:36 PM on July 19, 2010
an alarmist but well-cited theory
What does this even mean? It's cited by lots of people? It cites a lot of other people? I'm in academia and I've never once heard a paper described as "well-cited" to bolster its credibility.
posted by proj at 3:38 PM on July 19, 2010 [4 favorites]
What does this even mean? It's cited by lots of people? It cites a lot of other people? I'm in academia and I've never once heard a paper described as "well-cited" to bolster its credibility.
posted by proj at 3:38 PM on July 19, 2010 [4 favorites]
I said it before an' I'll say it again: bring out teh nukes.
USA! USA! USA!
posted by Threeway Handshake at 3:38 PM on July 19, 2010
USA! USA! USA!
posted by Threeway Handshake at 3:38 PM on July 19, 2010
I read that thing wondering if it was going to be some hollow-earth deal. All the water was going to drain into there or something. I am nonplussed.
posted by jquinby at 3:40 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by jquinby at 3:40 PM on July 19, 2010
What does this even mean? It's cited by lots of people? It cites a lot of other people? I'm in academia and I've never once heard a paper described as "well-cited" to bolster its credibility.
So, in academia do they describe papers as "alarmist" to bolster their credibility?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:45 PM on July 19, 2010
So, in academia do they describe papers as "alarmist" to bolster their credibility?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:45 PM on July 19, 2010
industry and government in creating a media blackout
No, the blackout was caused by all the oil in the water.
posted by abc123xyzinfinity at 3:46 PM on July 19, 2010
No, the blackout was caused by all the oil in the water.
posted by abc123xyzinfinity at 3:46 PM on July 19, 2010
What is this? GodlikeproductionFilter? WooWooFilter?
posted by smoothvirus at 3:48 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by smoothvirus at 3:48 PM on July 19, 2010
Since when is mefi a conspiracy theorist site?
New here, are ya'?
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 3:48 PM on July 19, 2010
New here, are ya'?
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 3:48 PM on July 19, 2010
Of all the things I thought might kill me I never considered it could be a fart.
posted by photoslob at 3:49 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by photoslob at 3:49 PM on July 19, 2010
an alarmist but well-cited theory
What does this even mean?
It's obviously a typo. It's a well-sited theory - that is, a theory about the site in which the oil well is.
posted by qvantamon at 3:50 PM on July 19, 2010
What does this even mean?
It's obviously a typo. It's a well-sited theory - that is, a theory about the site in which the oil well is.
posted by qvantamon at 3:50 PM on July 19, 2010
Between the Bush years and this, all those years of nihilism in high school are TOTALLY paying off.
*pops popcorn, opens another beer*
posted by entropicamericana at 3:51 PM on July 19, 2010 [4 favorites]
*pops popcorn, opens another beer*
posted by entropicamericana at 3:51 PM on July 19, 2010 [4 favorites]
251 million years ago a mammoth undersea methane bubble caused massive explosions, poisoned the atmosphere and destroyed more than 96 percent of all life on Earth. [1]This is hilarious. That footnote, upon which the entire argument hinges:
- …is to the world-famous Hooper Virtual Paleontological Museum's web lobby
- …which was apparently last updated on December 19, 1996
- …and, oh yeah, doesn't even say anything about any undersea methane bubble
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 3:54 PM on July 19, 2010 [4 favorites]
obligatory Simpsons quote: We are all upset by Mr. Burns' plan to block out our sun. It is time for decisive action! I have here a polite but firm letter to Mr. Burns' underlings who, with some cajoling, will pass it along to him or at least give him the gist of it.
posted by King Bee at 3:55 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by King Bee at 3:55 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Science save us!!!
posted by pianomover at 3:56 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by pianomover at 3:56 PM on July 19, 2010
Helium is not a reliable source.
Writers are encouraged to promote their work by writing blogs linking to Helium, or posting links on MySpace, Facebook, forums, social bookmarking sites etc. This improves earnings but is labour intensive as each article must be promoted individually to have a significant effect.
This is slightly suspicious.
posted by sunnichka at 3:58 PM on July 19, 2010
Writers are encouraged to promote their work by writing blogs linking to Helium, or posting links on MySpace, Facebook, forums, social bookmarking sites etc. This improves earnings but is labour intensive as each article must be promoted individually to have a significant effect.
This is slightly suspicious.
posted by sunnichka at 3:58 PM on July 19, 2010
When a Gawker Media site can debunk your End Permian ass, you know you were bringing weak game in the first place.
posted by fairytale of los angeles at 3:58 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by fairytale of los angeles at 3:58 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Everyone please calm down. We have 11 million years (within a 99% confidence level) till the next mass extinction. Source
posted by Freen at 3:58 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by Freen at 3:58 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Good thing I have my duct tape and hefty bags. And you guys laughed...
Also, maybe they ought to start collecting all that crap down there instead of letting the pressure keep building up...
posted by gjc at 3:59 PM on July 19, 2010
Also, maybe they ought to start collecting all that crap down there instead of letting the pressure keep building up...
posted by gjc at 3:59 PM on July 19, 2010
So the Permian death-belch is going to destroy New Orleans, Florida, and pretty much the rest of the southeastern Gulf states. I accept that; it's sad but inevitible. California will be OK, though, right?
posted by infinitywaltz at 3:59 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by infinitywaltz at 3:59 PM on July 19, 2010
Of all the things I thought might kill me I never considered it could be a fart.
Guess you weren't over at my house the night before last.
posted by marxchivist at 4:00 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Guess you weren't over at my house the night before last.
posted by marxchivist at 4:00 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
an alarmist but well-cited theory
It's obviously a typo. It's a well-sited theory - that is, a theory about the site in which the oil well is.
Clearly, you mean it's a well-sighted theory - as in a theory that has been sighted, regurgitated, and reconstituted by many alarmists.
posted by prinado at 4:03 PM on July 19, 2010
It's obviously a typo. It's a well-sited theory - that is, a theory about the site in which the oil well is.
Clearly, you mean it's a well-sighted theory - as in a theory that has been sighted, regurgitated, and reconstituted by many alarmists.
posted by prinado at 4:03 PM on July 19, 2010
Do we really have to do this here? As I've said repeatedly, the situation is bad enough without invoking crackpot theories.
Even with comments debunking it, giving it more exposure is not a good thing.
posted by wierdo at 4:05 PM on July 19, 2010
Even with comments debunking it, giving it more exposure is not a good thing.
posted by wierdo at 4:05 PM on July 19, 2010
ok it's alarmist, got it.
can we at least think about it in a 'what if' way? I think that's a lot more fun than thread shitting!
posted by Bohemia Mountain at 4:05 PM on July 19, 2010
can we at least think about it in a 'what if' way? I think that's a lot more fun than thread shitting!
posted by Bohemia Mountain at 4:05 PM on July 19, 2010
Moreover, it's been linked repeatedly in previous BP Gusher-related threads.
posted by wierdo at 4:06 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by wierdo at 4:06 PM on July 19, 2010
On not preview: Gee, what if the LHC generates a black hole that falls to the center of the earth and eats it?
posted by wierdo at 4:06 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by wierdo at 4:06 PM on July 19, 2010
Well, if nothing else I got a chuckle out of the idea of BP receiving a "strongly worded letter" (from a retired government official, no less)...oh noes, a strongly worded letter!!!!1!1!11
*cut to shot of ashen-faced BP executives*
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:07 PM on July 19, 2010
*cut to shot of ashen-faced BP executives*
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:07 PM on July 19, 2010
There is no need for concern. Your destruction was assured the moment you decided to evolve next to an unstable ball of hydrogen gas that is slowly fusing itself into something large enough to swallow your whole planet. Next time try not to be such dicks to each other. Now get back to enjoying what's left of your unimportant lives.
posted by humanfont at 4:08 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by humanfont at 4:08 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Since when is mefi a conspiracy theorist site?
Mefi not being a conspiracy site is just what they wanted you think.
posted by selenized at 4:09 PM on July 19, 2010
Mefi not being a conspiracy site is just what they wanted you think.
posted by selenized at 4:09 PM on July 19, 2010
We can't say anything insightful about planetary extinction, but we are in our element when the question is "WHAT IS THIS BRAP NOISE?"
This is very much a feature and not a bug IMAO.
posted by elizardbits at 4:11 PM on July 19, 2010
This is very much a feature and not a bug IMAO.
posted by elizardbits at 4:11 PM on July 19, 2010
If the extinction happens before 2012 I'll be all like, "I told you that 2012 shit was bogus!"
posted by Splunge at 4:12 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by Splunge at 4:12 PM on July 19, 2010
Er, what media blackout? Not letting people & reporters near booms- miles and miles away from the leaking well- has nothing to do with this, surely? Ditto, talking to cleanup workers on beaches.
I like the idea that a) a massive fireball is about to scour clean most of the Gulf area and b) the media could possibly be stopped from learning about it.
For that matter, well cited? It's well-cited in the way many crazy articles are well-cited: cite some real science, then swan off into parts unknown. Among the unverifiable and undocumented "facts" in this article:
"Workers there now wear advanced protection including state-of-the-art, military-issued gas masks"
"Reports... state that the upper level strata of the ocean floor is succumbing to greater and greater pressure... Some claim the seabed in the region has risen an astounding 30 feet."
He cites Matthew Simmons, who seems like a professional alarmist.
"Dr. John Kessler... has calculated that the ruptured well is spewing 60 percent oil and 40 percent methane. The normal methane amount that escapes from a compromised well is about 5 percent."
Has he? Where? He seems to be looking at methane & oxygen in the water, in the article cited.
"More evidence? A huge gash on the ocean floor—like a ragged wound hundreds of feet long—has been reported by the NOAA research ship, Thomas Jefferson... scientists aboard the ship voiced their concerns that the widening rift may go down miles into the earth."
Did they? Where? Surely it's on tape/online somewhere?
"Most disturbing of all: Methane levels in the water are now calculated as being almost one million times higher than normal."
No shit. This doesn't bolster his point at all- we KNOW there's a lot of methane in the water.
"If the methane bubble—a bubble that could be as big as 20 miles wide—erupts with titanic force ... [disaster movie plot ensues]"
WHAT methane bubble? Is there one? Do we know there is one? 20 miles wide and how deep? How do we know the methane we are seeing isn't just dissolved in the oil formation? (methane is a hydrocarbon. It's just happens to be gaseous most of the time)
Then he goes on a different tack, saying there's lots of toxins being spewed into the water. Well, yes. There are. But if we're all going to fry, it won't matter much surely?
"Some... point out that the underground methane sea is gradually melting from the nearby surging oil that’s estimated to be as hot as 500 degrees Fahrenheit." "point out" sounds like it's a fact. Is it?
"Most experts in the know, however, agree that if the world-changing event does occur it will happen suddenly and within the next 6 months."
Christ, it sounds like a line from an Onion article.
In short, nowhere has he explained how the runaway nature of the well would destabilize the methane underground any more than a non-runaway well would. It's not obvious that it would.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:14 PM on July 19, 2010
I like the idea that a) a massive fireball is about to scour clean most of the Gulf area and b) the media could possibly be stopped from learning about it.
For that matter, well cited? It's well-cited in the way many crazy articles are well-cited: cite some real science, then swan off into parts unknown. Among the unverifiable and undocumented "facts" in this article:
"Workers there now wear advanced protection including state-of-the-art, military-issued gas masks"
"Reports... state that the upper level strata of the ocean floor is succumbing to greater and greater pressure... Some claim the seabed in the region has risen an astounding 30 feet."
He cites Matthew Simmons, who seems like a professional alarmist.
"Dr. John Kessler... has calculated that the ruptured well is spewing 60 percent oil and 40 percent methane. The normal methane amount that escapes from a compromised well is about 5 percent."
Has he? Where? He seems to be looking at methane & oxygen in the water, in the article cited.
"More evidence? A huge gash on the ocean floor—like a ragged wound hundreds of feet long—has been reported by the NOAA research ship, Thomas Jefferson... scientists aboard the ship voiced their concerns that the widening rift may go down miles into the earth."
Did they? Where? Surely it's on tape/online somewhere?
"Most disturbing of all: Methane levels in the water are now calculated as being almost one million times higher than normal."
No shit. This doesn't bolster his point at all- we KNOW there's a lot of methane in the water.
"If the methane bubble—a bubble that could be as big as 20 miles wide—erupts with titanic force ... [disaster movie plot ensues]"
WHAT methane bubble? Is there one? Do we know there is one? 20 miles wide and how deep? How do we know the methane we are seeing isn't just dissolved in the oil formation? (methane is a hydrocarbon. It's just happens to be gaseous most of the time)
Then he goes on a different tack, saying there's lots of toxins being spewed into the water. Well, yes. There are. But if we're all going to fry, it won't matter much surely?
"Some... point out that the underground methane sea is gradually melting from the nearby surging oil that’s estimated to be as hot as 500 degrees Fahrenheit." "point out" sounds like it's a fact. Is it?
"Most experts in the know, however, agree that if the world-changing event does occur it will happen suddenly and within the next 6 months."
Christ, it sounds like a line from an Onion article.
In short, nowhere has he explained how the runaway nature of the well would destabilize the methane underground any more than a non-runaway well would. It's not obvious that it would.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:14 PM on July 19, 2010
Information abhors a vacuum. So when there's a lot of attention and not much information, new information is created out of nothing. Which is, strangely enough, also the information content of the new information. Nothing, that is.
When they make the movie, I can hardly wait for the point where Steve Buscemi goes berserk with the plasma cannon thingy. As a result, the asteroid crashed into Earth, but manages to plug the oil leak. Unfortunately, it also crack open the crust of the planet and releases the dinosaurs that had been hiding underground when they weren't guest-blogging at rense.com
Quick, somebody cite me! I'm getting all ex-cited.
posted by warbaby at 4:14 PM on July 19, 2010
When they make the movie, I can hardly wait for the point where Steve Buscemi goes berserk with the plasma cannon thingy. As a result, the asteroid crashed into Earth, but manages to plug the oil leak. Unfortunately, it also crack open the crust of the planet and releases the dinosaurs that had been hiding underground when they weren't guest-blogging at rense.com
Quick, somebody cite me! I'm getting all ex-cited.
posted by warbaby at 4:14 PM on July 19, 2010
This post is utter bullshit and I hope its author dies in an oil fire.
posted by clarknova at 4:14 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by clarknova at 4:14 PM on July 19, 2010 [1 favorite]
Splunge, sometimes I wonder if the 2012 hoopla has something to do with the predictions of disaster. Probably not, people predict disaster all the time, but it's still funny to think people would get so worked up over a movie.
posted by wierdo at 4:15 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by wierdo at 4:15 PM on July 19, 2010
There is no need for concern. Your destruction was assured the moment you decided to evolve next to an unstable ball of hydrogen gas that is slowly fusing itself into something large enough to swallow your whole planet. Next time try not to be such dicks to each other. Now get back to enjoying what's left of your unimportant lives.
Agreed hive brother. And we still don't want to talk to Stephen Hawking.
I've said too much...
posted by Splunge at 4:17 PM on July 19, 2010
Agreed hive brother. And we still don't want to talk to Stephen Hawking.
I've said too much...
posted by Splunge at 4:17 PM on July 19, 2010
I find the breathless raving of the alarmist link endearing, in a you-poor-idiot kind of way.
Some environmentalist experts are calling what’s pouring into the land, sea and air from the seabed breach ’a chemical cocktail of poisons.’
Chemical! Cocktail! of Poisons! Wheeeeee!
posted by vortex genie 2 at 4:20 PM on July 19, 2010
Some environmentalist experts are calling what’s pouring into the land, sea and air from the seabed breach ’a chemical cocktail of poisons.’
Chemical! Cocktail! of Poisons! Wheeeeee!
posted by vortex genie 2 at 4:20 PM on July 19, 2010
I don't understand why methane is more dangerous at the Mankini (or whatever) well versus the thousands of other oil fields in other parts of the world.
posted by KokuRyu at 4:29 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by KokuRyu at 4:29 PM on July 19, 2010
What do you know, the Bush Administration's willful malfeasance is going to destroy the world after all.
posted by Aquaman at 4:31 PM on July 19, 2010
posted by Aquaman at 4:31 PM on July 19, 2010
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posted by boo_radley at 3:11 PM on July 19, 2010