Politics and...baseball?
May 30, 2008 2:38 PM Subscribe
Of the myriad political blogs clogging the internets, fivethirtyeight.com offers some of the most robust numerical analysis of the 2008 presidential election. It has been the work of anonymous blogger Poblano. Today, Poblano has revealed his secret identity. Washington Insider? Nope- he's a baseball analyst!?!?
This post was deleted for the following reason: yeah pretty much should go in yesterday's thread -- jessamyn
This post was deleted for the following reason: This would be better as a comment in the previous thread.
posted by dersins at 2:51 PM on May 30, 2008
posted by dersins at 2:51 PM on May 30, 2008
Already a comment in the previous thread:
"Ok, fair enough.posted by ericb at 2:58 PM on May 30, 2008
In other news, Poblano has just identified himself as Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus.
posted by dsword at 11:42 AM on May 30 [+] [!]"
Ah, crap. Didn't see that.
posted by HighTechUnderpants at 3:00 PM on May 30, 2008
posted by HighTechUnderpants at 3:00 PM on May 30, 2008
And another comment in the previous thread:
posted by ericb at 3:03 PM on May 30, 2008
"Poblano's work has been fascinating and scary accurate this entire election season. He has just revealed his identity.This FPP. Striiiiike Three, You're Out.
'There are certain pleasures in writing anonymously. Particularly in the political world, where there is a whole mythology associated with anonymity -- think Deep Throat or Primary Colors or Atrios. But I'm fortunate enough to have been granted the opportunity to develop some relationships with larger outlets (you should see these coming to fruition very soon). And it just ain't very professional to keep referring to yourself as a chili pepper.
My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.
So if you catch me overusing baseball metaphors in my political writing or political metaphors in my baseball writing -- this is my excuse.'
If you're not familiar, check it out. If you're familiar with Baseball Prospectus, and you've been reading Poblano all along, you're probably nodding knowingly at this point. Well, I was, anyway.
posted by edverb at 12:13 PM on May 30 [+] [!]"
posted by ericb at 3:03 PM on May 30, 2008
Seems reasonable - those baseball guys are pretty damn crazy about statistics. Also, I hate him because he says Obama will lose.
posted by GuyZero at 3:03 PM on May 30, 2008
posted by GuyZero at 3:03 PM on May 30, 2008
Totally unsurprising. Political journalism and sports journalism are both devoid of substance and dedicated entirely to creating arguments.
posted by ibmcginty at 3:14 PM on May 30, 2008 [3 favorites]
posted by ibmcginty at 3:14 PM on May 30, 2008 [3 favorites]
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posted by HighTechUnderpants at 2:42 PM on May 30, 2008