Tables turning
October 13, 2015 3:51 PM Subscribe
Putin Bets Big on Aggressive Syria Policy
As the UK government denies reports that RAF pilots have been given the green light to shoot down hostile Russian jets in Syria.
Iraq has begun bombing Islamic State insurgents with help from a new intelligence center with staff from Russia, Iran and Syria.
Russia is using electronic warfare to cloak its actions in Syria from Isis and Nato.
What happens if Russia decides to go into Iraq. How to respond to Russia in Syria while avoiding World War Three.
Meanwhile Shiites in Iraq Hailing Putin for Syria Push.
Iraq has begun bombing Islamic State insurgents with help from a new intelligence center with staff from Russia, Iran and Syria.
Russia is using electronic warfare to cloak its actions in Syria from Isis and Nato.
What happens if Russia decides to go into Iraq. How to respond to Russia in Syria while avoiding World War Three.
Meanwhile Shiites in Iraq Hailing Putin for Syria Push.
I dunno, Iraq and Adghanistan are still utter shitputs that America is generations away from disengaging from, AND they led to Syria, AND they arguably emboldened Putin to embark on his Ukraine adventure, so W is pretty hard to beat.
posted by Artw at 4:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [13 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [13 favorites]
And then there's the comparative scale of their respective economic disasters...
posted by Artw at 4:15 PM on October 13, 2015
posted by Artw at 4:15 PM on October 13, 2015
Putin is just establishing his bona fides before joining the GOP presidential field.
posted by zompist at 4:16 PM on October 13, 2015 [80 favorites]
posted by zompist at 4:16 PM on October 13, 2015 [80 favorites]
In short, it is Syria which stands on the top of the West's agenda. But who is waging war there? Who is taking measures to impose order? Putin. Seldom has the West been so embarrassed. Rarely has the US been so humiliated.
Who the fuck wrote this Spiegal article, Alcibiades?
posted by selfnoise at 4:18 PM on October 13, 2015 [35 favorites]
Who the fuck wrote this Spiegal article, Alcibiades?
posted by selfnoise at 4:18 PM on October 13, 2015 [35 favorites]
This Japan Times article has a pretty good cartoon: The reason why Russian jets are buzzing Turkey - with a helpful analysis on Reddit.
posted by rosswald at 4:20 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by rosswald at 4:20 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Oh, good- I was wondering when WWIII would kick off.
*begins welding spikes to dune buggy*
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:26 PM on October 13, 2015 [25 favorites]
*begins welding spikes to dune buggy*
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:26 PM on October 13, 2015 [25 favorites]
In short, it is Syria which stands on the top of the West's agenda. But who is waging war there? Who is taking measures to impose order? Putin. Seldom has the West been so embarrassed. Rarely has the US been so humiliated.
Who the fuck wrote this Spiegal article, Alcibiades?
Palpatine, is that you?
posted by Drinky Die at 4:31 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Who the fuck wrote this Spiegal article, Alcibiades?
Palpatine, is that you?
posted by Drinky Die at 4:31 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
As the UK government denies reports that RAF pilots have been given the green light to shoot down hostile Russian jets in Syria.
Whether the reports are true or not, that is an absolutely terrifying sentence to read. What the actual fuck are these people thinking when statements like that are even plausible?
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [9 favorites]
Whether the reports are true or not, that is an absolutely terrifying sentence to read. What the actual fuck are these people thinking when statements like that are even plausible?
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [9 favorites]
Putin is a complete strategic idiot.
Russia already has a naval base in Syria. The USA has no foothold within that country, and it's hardly secure in Iraq. Putin's minor investment has made him Syria's BFF. Consequently, he is the one that every one of Syria's neighbours and interested parties need to deal with - Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Iraq; Iran and Saudi Arabia. Do Turkey and Saudi Arabia even return Obama's phone calls any more? They're US allies, but they don't seem to be on the same page, strategically.
In the meantime, exactly how much did the USA spend on its wars since Obama was elected? And how many wars would that be, if you don't count "War on Bad Guys" as a single conflict?
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:34 PM on October 13, 2015 [9 favorites]
Russia already has a naval base in Syria. The USA has no foothold within that country, and it's hardly secure in Iraq. Putin's minor investment has made him Syria's BFF. Consequently, he is the one that every one of Syria's neighbours and interested parties need to deal with - Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Iraq; Iran and Saudi Arabia. Do Turkey and Saudi Arabia even return Obama's phone calls any more? They're US allies, but they don't seem to be on the same page, strategically.
In the meantime, exactly how much did the USA spend on its wars since Obama was elected? And how many wars would that be, if you don't count "War on Bad Guys" as a single conflict?
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:34 PM on October 13, 2015 [9 favorites]
This just makes me think of the newscasts shown on The Day After. Quite chilling, really.
posted by NordyneDefenceDynamics at 4:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by NordyneDefenceDynamics at 4:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Putin has pulled out his dick and stuck it in a hornet's nest. It might earn him some applause from the crowd for a moment, but what then?
posted by humanfont at 4:40 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by humanfont at 4:40 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Putin is a complete strategic idiot.
Yeah, well, you know who else was a strategic idiot, and look how that went.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:42 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
Yeah, well, you know who else was a strategic idiot, and look how that went.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:42 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
Do Turkey and Saudi Arabia even return Obama's phone calls any more? They're US allies, but they don't seem to be on the same page, strategically.
I am marveling at a story from today where Turkey dictates a fairly aggressive message to a rival and a friend simultaneously - Turkey has warned the United States and Russia it will not tolerate Kurdish territorial gains by Kurdish militia close to its frontiers in north-western Syria, two senior officials said.
posted by rosswald at 4:46 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
I am marveling at a story from today where Turkey dictates a fairly aggressive message to a rival and a friend simultaneously - Turkey has warned the United States and Russia it will not tolerate Kurdish territorial gains by Kurdish militia close to its frontiers in north-western Syria, two senior officials said.
posted by rosswald at 4:46 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Putin's got a strategic interest in this: he wants to keep a Russian port in the Mediterranean, and he gets to do that if Assad survives - even if Syria becomes a rump state. What's the USA's strategic interest here?
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:47 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:47 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
"Seldom has the West been so embarrassed. Rarely has the US been so humiliated."You feel that the author can barely keep from writing "Chicken! Chicken! Bawwwk Bawwwk!" It's a pretty conceit, actually. Were the West to intervene more than it has, it would be evidence of bloodthirsty intent; while the West declines to intervene more than it has, it's merely evidence of weakness and humiliation.
posted by octobersurprise at 4:48 PM on October 13, 2015 [6 favorites]
Russia shoots into history as cruise missiles travel 1,000 miles to hit Isis targets in Syria from the Caspian Sea.
posted by adamvasco at 4:55 PM on October 13, 2015
posted by adamvasco at 4:55 PM on October 13, 2015
What's the USA's strategic interest here?
I have no idea about the exact details, but I'm gonna guess the TLDR is oil.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:58 PM on October 13, 2015 [5 favorites]
I have no idea about the exact details, but I'm gonna guess the TLDR is oil.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:58 PM on October 13, 2015 [5 favorites]
Whether the reports are true or not, that is an absolutely terrifying sentence to read. What the actual fuck are these people thinking when statements like that are even plausible?
That bit in particular does not strike me as sounding super plausible.
posted by Artw at 4:58 PM on October 13, 2015
That bit in particular does not strike me as sounding super plausible.
posted by Artw at 4:58 PM on October 13, 2015
I have no idea about the exact details, but I'm gonna guess the TLDR is oil.
I've heard gas pipeline from the Gulf States to Europe, which Putin and therefore Assad didn't want, so USG had to go and start up some terrorism (did I say terrorism? I meant "moderate rebels") to try and get rid of Assad.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 5:03 PM on October 13, 2015
I've heard gas pipeline from the Gulf States to Europe, which Putin and therefore Assad didn't want, so USG had to go and start up some terrorism (did I say terrorism? I meant "moderate rebels") to try and get rid of Assad.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 5:03 PM on October 13, 2015
I have no idea about the exact details, but I'm gonna guess the TLDR is oil.
Nope. The US is basically energy-neutral at this point.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:04 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Nope. The US is basically energy-neutral at this point.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:04 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
What's sad (or funny, depending on the degree of cynicism you've cultivated) is how much this "Syria/Putin humiliates the West" line sounds just like the "OBL is humiliating America" stuff the Neo-Cons used to like to churn out. Brothers from different mothers, I guess.
posted by octobersurprise at 5:04 PM on October 13, 2015 [6 favorites]
posted by octobersurprise at 5:04 PM on October 13, 2015 [6 favorites]
I really see this as about US strategic failure, not Putin's actions. The Syrian civil war is a giant sucking chest wound to the entire regional community (which Russia is part of, sharing a border with Turkey). It has been fed by U.S. actions ranging from the Iraq invasion to our fantasy-based policy of a "moderate opposition" to Assad. We really appeared to have no policy or idea that would actually bring order to the country, and we were leaving the door wide open for Turkey to bite off big chunks of Syria in ways that could also be destabilizing. Putin has at least a clear policy for restoring order to the country, and the horrific civil war appears more destructive than Assad's past rule was. We may have forfeited our right to criticize him by our egregious failures and irresponsibility in leadership, which have now extended over a decade. This really shouldn't be about machismo and pissing matches and the attempt to define Putin as the latest Bad Guy justifying more U.S. interventions, but about restoring order and some semblance of a functioning nation state. As Putin has said, that is a necessary pre-condition to negotiating any kind of long term settlement that puts limits on Assad's dictatorship. I have zero confidence, zero in the U.S. ability to do that.
posted by zipadee at 5:07 PM on October 13, 2015 [11 favorites]
posted by zipadee at 5:07 PM on October 13, 2015 [11 favorites]
Putin is a complete strategic idiot. While under sanctions for his last intervention in another country's internal disputes, he boldly charges into a 3-year old civil war that puts Viet Nam to shame. Not to mention the fact that he has a terrible logistics tail which is easily severed, or the fact that Russia lacks the type of force projection capability needed for the mission.
He's not put any boots on the ground, his involvement can be dispensed with at any moment by simply disengaging naval and air forces. The proper parallel, if you actually need one, would be the US involvement in the Yugoslavian civil war. It may become embarrassing, but he's not stuck there in any real sense.
And his "mission" is simply to keep Assad in power, basically. As long as he achieves that remarkably easy goal, he can claim to also be a) keeping Islamic fundamentalism in check b) keeping the mess created by American intervention from 2003 onwards from spreading into Turkey, Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, or wherever else he feels like claiming. Aside from an upsurge in Islamic terrorism within Russia itself, I don't really see how this could come back on him politically.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:07 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
He's not put any boots on the ground, his involvement can be dispensed with at any moment by simply disengaging naval and air forces. The proper parallel, if you actually need one, would be the US involvement in the Yugoslavian civil war. It may become embarrassing, but he's not stuck there in any real sense.
And his "mission" is simply to keep Assad in power, basically. As long as he achieves that remarkably easy goal, he can claim to also be a) keeping Islamic fundamentalism in check b) keeping the mess created by American intervention from 2003 onwards from spreading into Turkey, Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, or wherever else he feels like claiming. Aside from an upsurge in Islamic terrorism within Russia itself, I don't really see how this could come back on him politically.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:07 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
It's not hard to see why russia would want to support a regime in what has been essentially a client state to it.
posted by Ferreous at 5:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by Ferreous at 5:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Just try something, you vodka-snorting, fat-keistered athiests!
posted by entropicamericana at 5:15 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by entropicamericana at 5:15 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
I've heard gas pipeline from the Gulf States to Europe, which Putin and therefore Assad didn't want, so USG had to go and start up some terrorism (did I say terrorism? I meant "moderate rebels") to try and get rid of Assad.
I worked in Saudi Arabia near the Jordanian border between '09-12 and worked alongside many Syrians through the Arab Spring. Even at our small, developing university, Syrians were prone to factionalize according to city and region. (Our Sudanese teachers kept the peace when rancor erupted.) Assad's "presidency", necessary and structured as it is to protect Shia enclaves (such as the Alawites) from being violently repressed by Sunnis, is inherited from his father. Not until peaceful protests were violently repressed did the son revert to the violence of his father (which was extreme).
One "principle" of USG intervention is addressing (funding and supplying) asymmetries of conflict. When Russian tanks were inflicting significant losses, anti-tank missles appeared.
Sweeping analyses are simply not useful or true. The crisis Syria has become has been ongoing since the Arab Spring.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 5:18 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
I worked in Saudi Arabia near the Jordanian border between '09-12 and worked alongside many Syrians through the Arab Spring. Even at our small, developing university, Syrians were prone to factionalize according to city and region. (Our Sudanese teachers kept the peace when rancor erupted.) Assad's "presidency", necessary and structured as it is to protect Shia enclaves (such as the Alawites) from being violently repressed by Sunnis, is inherited from his father. Not until peaceful protests were violently repressed did the son revert to the violence of his father (which was extreme).
One "principle" of USG intervention is addressing (funding and supplying) asymmetries of conflict. When Russian tanks were inflicting significant losses, anti-tank missles appeared.
Sweeping analyses are simply not useful or true. The crisis Syria has become has been ongoing since the Arab Spring.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 5:18 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
He has a battalion on the ground and tanks. I'm sure paratroopers. These forces can free up forces for Assads' assult. I would not be suprised if he sent in more T62s for the Syrian army to use. Ammo, Intel.
I've always said it, Putin will not
stop. With the Katzenjammer kids approach to foreign policy coming from the White House, I dont see it getting better.
Face it, they are winning and they don't care who knows it.
posted by clavdivs at 5:19 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
I've always said it, Putin will not
stop. With the Katzenjammer kids approach to foreign policy coming from the White House, I dont see it getting better.
Face it, they are winning and they don't care who knows it.
posted by clavdivs at 5:19 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Great links Adam, nice post.
posted by clavdivs at 5:20 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 5:20 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
What is the endgame for the US here? Because from what I can see the best case scenario if the US engineers the fall of Assad and Russia's retreat from the region, is that a Salafist Jihadi army, either Al Nursa or ISIS, takes over Syria and potentially large parts of Iraq. Then what? Well, for us anyway, because we already know exactly what then for anyone in the area deemed insufficiently Muslim by the decapitation and slavery mob. Maybe Turkey will helpfully invade and occupy the area. Maybe whoever takes over Syria will decide the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan is takfir. I don't know. I just know it's been years since I could even believe anyone with any kind of rational objective was running US policy in the region.
posted by Grimgrin at 5:43 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by Grimgrin at 5:43 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
The whole lead up to this has been so very fucking strange in the main media.
Russia argues that it is acting at the invitation of the state of Syria, represented by the government of Syria led by Bashar Assad. This sounds similar to the U.S. and U.K. argument that they are undertaking military action in Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government.
There are good arguments for ISIS originally being a Saudi backed force .
I mean all those Toyota pick ups which no one seems to know, or at least wants to know, where they came from.
And the oil story rings weird as well.
It is also worth wondering where all the very professional slick propaganda comes from, not from the battlefront that's for sure.
posted by adamvasco at 5:45 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Russia argues that it is acting at the invitation of the state of Syria, represented by the government of Syria led by Bashar Assad. This sounds similar to the U.S. and U.K. argument that they are undertaking military action in Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government.
There are good arguments for ISIS originally being a Saudi backed force .
I mean all those Toyota pick ups which no one seems to know, or at least wants to know, where they came from.
And the oil story rings weird as well.
It is also worth wondering where all the very professional slick propaganda comes from, not from the battlefront that's for sure.
posted by adamvasco at 5:45 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
I mean all those Toyota pick ups which no one seems to know, or at least wants to know, where they came from.
The ability for stateless terrorist pariahs to acquire fleets of Toyotas is obviously unimpaired by sanctions or other barriers. Does Toyota have a special sales division just for these groups?
posted by Dip Flash at 5:59 PM on October 13, 2015 [4 favorites]
The ability for stateless terrorist pariahs to acquire fleets of Toyotas is obviously unimpaired by sanctions or other barriers. Does Toyota have a special sales division just for these groups?
posted by Dip Flash at 5:59 PM on October 13, 2015 [4 favorites]
It does feel as though this is the start of World War III here, not in an eschatological sense, but just that two (or multiple) power blocs have gone to war (US vs Russia). The New World Order that Bush I talked about in 1989 is dead and buried now.
posted by Nevin at 6:15 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Nevin at 6:15 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
The first photo in the "slick propaganda" link is a fleet of ISIL carrying Chevys.
What does that mean?
posted by Alter Cocker at 6:42 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
What does that mean?
posted by Alter Cocker at 6:42 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
If WW3 starts in the next decade or so, I suspect that a key moment will be deemed to be the US supplying weapons to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan. That accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of Putin's Russia, and it also led to the ascendancy of the Taliban, and Osama bin Laden. Hence the US invasion of Iraq and the subsequent rise of Iran; the War on Terror and the consequent US insertion into many regional conflicts; the Arab Spring and regimes collapsing across the Middle East; the US's over-extension worldwide making it both weaker and more at risk of accidental conflict ...
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:53 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:53 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
I suspect that a key moment will be deemed to be the US supplying weapons to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan.
Wouldn't that mean that a key moment was the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan?
posted by drezdn at 7:00 PM on October 13, 2015 [4 favorites]
Wouldn't that mean that a key moment was the Soviet Union invading Afghanistan?
posted by drezdn at 7:00 PM on October 13, 2015 [4 favorites]
Arming partisans goes back further than all that Joe; we did a bunch of it all over eastern Europe after WWII and in central and South America too.
I would place the beginnings of that sort of thing with the rise of the Dulles boys in the Eisenhower admin.
It's been a bloody "unintended consequences" mess ever since.
posted by Alter Cocker at 7:23 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
I would place the beginnings of that sort of thing with the rise of the Dulles boys in the Eisenhower admin.
It's been a bloody "unintended consequences" mess ever since.
posted by Alter Cocker at 7:23 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
The Great Game Mk2.
...wait, Mk3?
OK, let's just call it Mk4.
Look, if Pashtun tribes aren't involved it can't count as part of The Great Game!
...fine, whatever, we'll call it The Great Game 5: The Levanting? Shouldn't there be a British column getting annihilated in the foothills by now?
posted by aramaic at 7:30 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
...wait, Mk3?
OK, let's just call it Mk4.
Look, if Pashtun tribes aren't involved it can't count as part of The Great Game!
...fine, whatever, we'll call it The Great Game 5: The Levanting? Shouldn't there be a British column getting annihilated in the foothills by now?
posted by aramaic at 7:30 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Putin is a complete strategic idiot.
They're all idiots. Very smart and ruthless and cunning, but idiots all the same. There is not a leader alive who has figured out how to stop riding the tiger. It all ends in ruin for them (and a whole lot of other people) eventually.
The only way to win is to not play at all.
When bodies are washing up on the shores of the Aegean is anyone truly a winner. It's a ghastly game played by ghastly people.
posted by Nevin at 8:01 PM on October 13, 2015 [11 favorites]
They're all idiots. Very smart and ruthless and cunning, but idiots all the same. There is not a leader alive who has figured out how to stop riding the tiger. It all ends in ruin for them (and a whole lot of other people) eventually.
The only way to win is to not play at all.
When bodies are washing up on the shores of the Aegean is anyone truly a winner. It's a ghastly game played by ghastly people.
posted by Nevin at 8:01 PM on October 13, 2015 [11 favorites]
Well, Putin is involved because Syria is a client state. If Israel was wracked with massive internal rebellion, I guarantee we'd be involved.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 8:20 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 8:20 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Long, but worth reading: Putin’s Syria Gambit Aims at Something Bigger Than Syria
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:17 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:17 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Putin's intervention in Syria will accomplish nothing but prolong the civil war and kill a lot of people who might not have otherwise have been killed. Maybe Russia will get to keep their naval base when it's all over.
It amazes me that people see Obama as "indecisive" and "weak" when he hasn't done a stupid thing like this. So many people all over the world seem to see action as a good thing, even when it has no clear or achievable purpose.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:52 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
It amazes me that people see Obama as "indecisive" and "weak" when he hasn't done a stupid thing like this. So many people all over the world seem to see action as a good thing, even when it has no clear or achievable purpose.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:52 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
If Israel was wracked with massive internal rebellion, I guarantee we'd be involved.
News I'm reading from Jerusalem says that it is, and we are, and I'll just shut my pie-hole now.
posted by mikelieman at 12:01 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
News I'm reading from Jerusalem says that it is, and we are, and I'll just shut my pie-hole now.
posted by mikelieman at 12:01 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
As to what Putin wants, leaving out the conspiracy theories and larger potential geopolitical goals and such, I'd imagine access to the Med without having to run the Black Seas Fleet through seas largely controlled by noted NATO ally Turkey, especially given tensions of late.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 12:03 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 12:03 AM on October 14, 2015
"is a fleet of ISIL carrying Chevys.
What does that mean?"
Not baseball, not Applepie.
"It amazes me that people see Obama as "indecisive" and "weak" when he hasn't done a stupid thing like this..."
Well, no, but the news tells us with glee 50 TONS of goodies dropped to whoever. Well, he is doing something. The question is weither that is stupid...no, it's not stupid because they should have dropped like 3 YEARS ago.
"many people all over the world seem to see action as a good thing, even when it has no clear or achievable purpose."
action Putin has taken but perhaps your conflating action for intervention. From the coldest view, Russia is intervening in her national interests wether we lump it or not.
And to perhaps stay the fuck out of his way, let him defeat ISIS.
That's stupid. But it's a stupid world.
posted by clavdivs at 12:51 AM on October 14, 2015
What does that mean?"
Not baseball, not Applepie.
"It amazes me that people see Obama as "indecisive" and "weak" when he hasn't done a stupid thing like this..."
Well, no, but the news tells us with glee 50 TONS of goodies dropped to whoever. Well, he is doing something. The question is weither that is stupid...no, it's not stupid because they should have dropped like 3 YEARS ago.
"many people all over the world seem to see action as a good thing, even when it has no clear or achievable purpose."
action Putin has taken but perhaps your conflating action for intervention. From the coldest view, Russia is intervening in her national interests wether we lump it or not.
And to perhaps stay the fuck out of his way, let him defeat ISIS.
That's stupid. But it's a stupid world.
posted by clavdivs at 12:51 AM on October 14, 2015
Putin's intervention in Syria will accomplish nothing but prolong the civil war and kill a lot of people who might not have otherwise have been killed.
Just like his intervention in Ukraine accomplished nothing except the expansion of territory under Russian control.
My guess is that this is a prelude to Putin simply taking over the whole country, installing a military dictatorship, and running the place like a Soviet client state. And my guess is that - given the choice of Assad or ISIS - the people of Syria will be better off letting the Russians run the place.
posted by three blind mice at 12:53 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
Just like his intervention in Ukraine accomplished nothing except the expansion of territory under Russian control.
My guess is that this is a prelude to Putin simply taking over the whole country, installing a military dictatorship, and running the place like a Soviet client state. And my guess is that - given the choice of Assad or ISIS - the people of Syria will be better off letting the Russians run the place.
posted by three blind mice at 12:53 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
...but perhaps your conflating action for intervention.
Well, yes. I did mean direct intervention like what Russia is doing now. Covertly arming various groups is a different beast, and is also something that Russia has been doing since the war started. There's so many countries arming different rebel groups now it's impossible to predict any straightforward outcome.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:10 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Well, yes. I did mean direct intervention like what Russia is doing now. Covertly arming various groups is a different beast, and is also something that Russia has been doing since the war started. There's so many countries arming different rebel groups now it's impossible to predict any straightforward outcome.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:10 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
What should the US have done differently? I mean, short of the 2003 Iraq war, which was the biggest foreign policy fuckup in US history. (Maybe not the costliest in terms of innocents we slaughtered. But, geopolitically, it's almost certainly worse than Vietnam.) So Obama comes into office in 2009. What should the US have done differently since this point? I've never seen a plausible answer to this. If anything, we've already done too much (did we really think the "moderates'" weapons wouldn't end up in the hands of zealots)? The wars in the Middle East are awful, and we're responsible in some large measure for them. But at this point, I don't see how we can do anything beyond what we're doing to fix them.
On the homefront, we can take more refugees. We can give Turkey and Lebanon and Jordan more money to help with refugees. (Write your Congresscritters!)
posted by persona au gratin at 1:59 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
On the homefront, we can take more refugees. We can give Turkey and Lebanon and Jordan more money to help with refugees. (Write your Congresscritters!)
posted by persona au gratin at 1:59 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Hang in there - I think Carrie Mathison will be arriving in a couple of episodes.
posted by rongorongo at 3:15 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by rongorongo at 3:15 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
So Obama comes into office in 2009. What should the US have done differently since this point? I've never seen a plausible answer to this.
Not gotten involved in Libya. Not gotten involved in Egypt. Not gotten involved in Syria.
posted by Justinian at 3:21 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
Not gotten involved in Libya. Not gotten involved in Egypt. Not gotten involved in Syria.
posted by Justinian at 3:21 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
What should the US have done differently since this point? I've never seen a plausible answer to this.
Well Obama and the rest of the world could have abandoned the charade that the Iraqis could democratically elect a government that had any hope of providing the sort of stability the country enjoyed under Saddam Hussein.
Obama could have reversed course, installed a MacArthur-like military dictatorship, brought in a professional bureaucracy to run the place, and put Iraq back under colonial control. After two or three decades of Western control, maybe they could have another go at independence, with an independent Kurdistan being the first region liberated.
It's not plausible because of course Obama is an anti-colonialist who doesn't love America, but compared to life under the control of ISIS/ISIL, I think most Iraqis would choose the kowtow.
posted by three blind mice at 4:54 AM on October 14, 2015
Well Obama and the rest of the world could have abandoned the charade that the Iraqis could democratically elect a government that had any hope of providing the sort of stability the country enjoyed under Saddam Hussein.
Obama could have reversed course, installed a MacArthur-like military dictatorship, brought in a professional bureaucracy to run the place, and put Iraq back under colonial control. After two or three decades of Western control, maybe they could have another go at independence, with an independent Kurdistan being the first region liberated.
It's not plausible because of course Obama is an anti-colonialist who doesn't love America, but compared to life under the control of ISIS/ISIL, I think most Iraqis would choose the kowtow.
posted by three blind mice at 4:54 AM on October 14, 2015
Syria 'near miss' prompts US-Russia air safety talks: "The US and Russia are to hold new talks on air safety in Syria after it emerged combat aircraft from both nations came within miles of each other on Saturday. The planes were in visual contact with each other, 10 to 20 miles (15-30km) apart, a US defence spokesman told reporters in Washington DC."
This will wendell (in a geopolitical sense).
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:05 AM on October 14, 2015
This will wendell (in a geopolitical sense).
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:05 AM on October 14, 2015
Only because I've seen it recently, but I think its a good time to (re)view Adam Curtis's Bitter Lake.
With the usual caveats mentioned in the link obviously.
posted by Kiwi at 5:23 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
With the usual caveats mentioned in the link obviously.
posted by Kiwi at 5:23 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
In the meantime, exactly how much did the USA spend on its wars since Obama was elected?
The real strategic genius was GW BUSH who shit the bed and then made the next guy sleep in it while he paints self portraits of his feet while soaking in a tub. No doubt grinning like a MAD magazine cover the whole time.
posted by srboisvert at 5:46 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
The real strategic genius was GW BUSH who shit the bed and then made the next guy sleep in it while he paints self portraits of his feet while soaking in a tub. No doubt grinning like a MAD magazine cover the whole time.
posted by srboisvert at 5:46 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Well Obama and the rest of the world could have abandoned the charade that the Iraqis could democratically elect a government that had any hope of providing the sort of stability the country enjoyed under Saddam Hussein.
Obama could have reversed course, installed a MacArthur-like military dictatorship, brought in a professional bureaucracy to run the place, and put Iraq back under colonial control. After two or three decades of Western control, maybe they could have another go at independence, with an independent Kurdistan being the first region liberated.
Keen foreign-policy analysis like this is what keeps me logging onto this terrible web site. Bravo.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 6:37 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
Obama could have reversed course, installed a MacArthur-like military dictatorship, brought in a professional bureaucracy to run the place, and put Iraq back under colonial control. After two or three decades of Western control, maybe they could have another go at independence, with an independent Kurdistan being the first region liberated.
Keen foreign-policy analysis like this is what keeps me logging onto this terrible web site. Bravo.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 6:37 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
Really? I'm just here for the donuts.
posted by octobersurprise at 6:41 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by octobersurprise at 6:41 AM on October 14, 2015
Iraq would definitely have accepted American dictatorial rule in 2009. Imposing on them a deranged foreign glory hog as their autocrat was definitely a thing we could have done then, and it would have been good to do, and my wife has not left me, and my kids return my calls.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 6:51 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 6:51 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
You tried that remember.
So, Mr Bremer, where did all the money go?
posted by adamvasco at 7:30 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
So, Mr Bremer, where did all the money go?
posted by adamvasco at 7:30 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
The wars in the Middle East are awful, and we're responsible in some large measure for them. But at this point, I don't see how we can do anything beyond what we're doing to fix them.
On the homefront, we can take more refugees. We can give Turkey and Lebanon and Jordan more money to help with refugees. (Write your Congresscritters!)
Off the top of my head:
Stop referring to Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda affiliated groups as "moderate rebels".
Stop arming islamist, salafist, and other terrorist groups.
Stop America's allies from arming and supporting terrorist groups.
Stop Turkey's assaults on Kurdish regions, which are very harmful to YPG/PYD's efforts at combating ISIS.
Stop pretending that toppling Saddam, Gaddafi, and Assad was done as part of Team America's gallant effort to rid the world of dictators.
Recognize that bombing the shit out of countries with a gung-ho attitude and absolutely no planning, or desire, to reconstruct anything once the bombs stop falling is a fucking crime.
I seriously wonder how stupid Americans have to be to gobble up all the shit their politicians feed them. Nobody even bothers questioning the motives for ripping apart the region and leaving it a smoldering mess. It surely must have been to save the people from their scary dictators.
Oh whats that? They're now completely overrun by roaming bands of armed religious fanatics? Serves them right, those people could never handle democracy anyway.
Our job here is done, now lets go find more brown people to bomb. USA USA.
posted by xqwzts at 7:32 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
On the homefront, we can take more refugees. We can give Turkey and Lebanon and Jordan more money to help with refugees. (Write your Congresscritters!)
Off the top of my head:
Stop referring to Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda affiliated groups as "moderate rebels".
Stop arming islamist, salafist, and other terrorist groups.
Stop America's allies from arming and supporting terrorist groups.
Stop Turkey's assaults on Kurdish regions, which are very harmful to YPG/PYD's efforts at combating ISIS.
Stop pretending that toppling Saddam, Gaddafi, and Assad was done as part of Team America's gallant effort to rid the world of dictators.
Recognize that bombing the shit out of countries with a gung-ho attitude and absolutely no planning, or desire, to reconstruct anything once the bombs stop falling is a fucking crime.
I seriously wonder how stupid Americans have to be to gobble up all the shit their politicians feed them. Nobody even bothers questioning the motives for ripping apart the region and leaving it a smoldering mess. It surely must have been to save the people from their scary dictators.
Oh whats that? They're now completely overrun by roaming bands of armed religious fanatics? Serves them right, those people could never handle democracy anyway.
Our job here is done, now lets go find more brown people to bomb. USA USA.
posted by xqwzts at 7:32 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
NPR as had some interesting coverage of Putin's actions in Syria, and because I don't know enough to filter the signal from noise, I'll share what struck me as interesting:
What does Vladimir Putin want in Syria? - Sept. 29, 2015 -- by backing Assad and otherwise getting involved in Syria, Putin wants to be part of the peace negotiations that will happen.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:35 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
What does Vladimir Putin want in Syria? - Sept. 29, 2015 -- by backing Assad and otherwise getting involved in Syria, Putin wants to be part of the peace negotiations that will happen.
GREENE: Can Putin be trusted?Russia Launches Airstrikes Against Bashar Al-Assad Enemies In Syria - Sept. 30, 2015 -- Sergei Ivanov, President Putin's chief of staff, said the mission was exclusively about defending Russia's national interests because Russian citizens are among the Islamic State fighters.
FLOURNOY: That is not a word I would associate with Vladimir Putin. He's a very skillful tactician. So we shouldn't assume that he's doing this for reasons that are appealing or attractive to us. But that doesn't mean we can't work with him in some capacity. We have to make sure that we, at a minimum, de-conflict the activities of Russian forces in the area and U.S. forces. We do not want any kind of accidental confrontation between the two. When it does come time for negotiations, the Russians will necessarily be involved. And that's just a fact that we're going to have to deal with.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)Why Russia picked last week to begin airstrikes in Syria - Oct. 5, 2015 -- Assad's regime represents what Putin wants: a country's leadership beyond question by outsiders, a distraction from Ukraine, and to force a conversation with the next US President.
SERGEI IVANOV: (Speaking Russian).
FLINTOFF: "Now there are thousands of such Russians," he said, "and it was necessary to fight them in Syria to avoid having to fight them if they come back to Russia." That's a stance that resonates with many ordinary Russians.
GREENE: So as we just heard right there, Britain's Prime Minister, David Cameron, says Russia's making a mistake using its military to prop up the Assad regime. Is that what Russia is trying to do?Putin is no Georgie W. He's no pretend cowboy, he's something bigger. In Honor Of His 63rd, Putin Plays Hockey And Is Painted As The Buddha (and pop culture heroes and religious, mythical and historical figures at a Moscow exhibition) - Oct. 7, 2015 -- the NPR piece also notes that there's a popular Russian rap song called "My best friend is president Putin" (a very short Reddit thread on the video).
VON EGGERT: Well, it does. But I think Mr. Putin - not so much prop up President Assad there but a principle - a principle of absolute sovereignty - a pre-World War I attitude to sovereignty, if you wish, under which, any regime has total right to do whatever it wants domestically to its own citizens without any outside interference. In a certain way, it is a very, very strong step to oppose what Putin sees as a regime change policy by the United States across the globe. And in this respect, with Putin being very much concerned about his domestic positions, you could say that in Lattakia, Tartus and Damascus, Putin is defending Moscow.
GREENE: He's defending Moscow and also this principle, as you say - I mean, telling the United States, telling other countries, that no matter what you think of a dictator, of a leader, no other country has the right to decide who is going to lead another one.
VON EGGERT: Absolutely. The - absolutely that. Absolutely so. And I think there are a few other things that he achieves there, or he thinks he achieves. First of all, he sends a signal to Russia's very few allies that if you're an ally of Russia, you're going to be sent, you know, marines and planes and tanks. If you're an ally of the United States, as President Mubarak was in Egypt, you get a line busy signal from the White House when they have problems. Secondly, it's a great demonstration of Russia's military potential - new weapons. And in a certain way, it's a showcase for Russia's new military capacity. Again, a very important thing - this action in Syria distracts attention from Ukraine with the Minsk agreements coming up for review, as we know, before the end of the year. And also, another thing that's an important thing, too - now Mr. Putin has created a kind of political bridge hat(ph) which will link him to the next administration because the fear in the Kremlin was when Obama goes, the new person, whoever he or she is, will come into the White House and say, what's this Vlad guy doing in the Kremlin? Why don't we sort of turn on the heat a bit on him? Now it will be very difficult because there will always be a Syria to talk about.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:35 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
You tried that remember.
So, Mr Bremer, where did all the money go?
Yeah, that's what makes the notion of installing a military dictatorship in 2009 so phenomenally stupid that treating it as a joke is the more charitable attitude.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 7:42 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
So, Mr Bremer, where did all the money go?
Yeah, that's what makes the notion of installing a military dictatorship in 2009 so phenomenally stupid that treating it as a joke is the more charitable attitude.
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 7:42 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Slight derail: I've heard the non-dictionary word DECONFLICT about 20 times so far in discussions about Syria recently . It seems this is a neologism as of very recently. Or is this existing wonk-speak?
posted by freecellwizard at 9:40 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by freecellwizard at 9:40 AM on October 14, 2015
None of that is going to go any way toward unfucking the situation in the Middle East.
In what sense did the US go into Egypt? And the US followed as others led to stop a putative genocide in Libya. It's. In hindsight, it's still not clear to me what should have been done there.
And the US under Obama hasn't been knowing arming AlQ-types. The problem has been the extremists getting weapons after the people we've armed have bugged out.
posted by persona au gratin at 10:26 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
In what sense did the US go into Egypt? And the US followed as others led to stop a putative genocide in Libya. It's. In hindsight, it's still not clear to me what should have been done there.
And the US under Obama hasn't been knowing arming AlQ-types. The problem has been the extremists getting weapons after the people we've armed have bugged out.
posted by persona au gratin at 10:26 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
-Kasparov: Putin's Goal in Syria Is Chaos[*]
-The Key Players in the Syria Crisis, Explained
-Strains over Syria jeopardise Turkey-Russia economic ties
-Tensions Build in Turkey After Bomb Kills 100 People in Ankara
There is not a leader alive who has figured out how to stop riding the tiger. It all ends in ruin for them (and a whole lot of other people) eventually. The only way to win is to not play at all.
meanwhile, in the pacific theatre...
US warships to challenge Chinese claims in South China Sea
posted by kliuless at 10:34 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
-The Key Players in the Syria Crisis, Explained
-Strains over Syria jeopardise Turkey-Russia economic ties
-Tensions Build in Turkey After Bomb Kills 100 People in Ankara
There is not a leader alive who has figured out how to stop riding the tiger. It all ends in ruin for them (and a whole lot of other people) eventually. The only way to win is to not play at all.
meanwhile, in the pacific theatre...
US warships to challenge Chinese claims in South China Sea
posted by kliuless at 10:34 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
The word deconflict does appear to be trending, but it's been around for a while. The OED has citations going back to 1975 for the definition 'To reduce the risk of collision in (a combat situation, airspace, etc.) [sic] by separating the flight paths of one's own aircraft or airborne weaponry.' The current usage is a slight broadening in meaning from 'avoid collision' to 'avoid (not exactly) friendly fire incidents'.
Here's an article about deconflict from The Guardian.
posted by The Tensor at 10:37 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Here's an article about deconflict from The Guardian.
posted by The Tensor at 10:37 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Stop Turkey's assaults on Kurdish regions, which are very harmful to YPG/PYD's efforts at combating ISIS.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.
posted by Copronymus at 11:08 AM on October 14, 2015
Oh, to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.
posted by Copronymus at 11:08 AM on October 14, 2015
The ability for stateless terrorist pariahs to acquire fleets of Toyotas is obviously unimpaired by sanctions or other barriers. Does Toyota have a special sales division just for these groups?
You know that they were sent to 'moderate' rebels from Australia, the UK and the US. They even show up on lists of what we sent.
Then the US government shakes it head and investigates itself as if they didn't know.
posted by psycho-alchemy at 11:10 AM on October 14, 2015
You know that they were sent to 'moderate' rebels from Australia, the UK and the US. They even show up on lists of what we sent.
Then the US government shakes it head and investigates itself as if they didn't know.
posted by psycho-alchemy at 11:10 AM on October 14, 2015
also btw, on zakaria's GPS...
STEPHENS: This is sort of the way Trump invests in real estate. Very small, really a relatively small investment of a few planes, couple of thousands soldiers. And with a potentially large payoff if it works. He shores up an ally. Russia has always wanted to expand its ambit particularly in the eastern Mediterranean. He's exploring an alliance with Iran. If he manages to defeat ISIS he's going to look, or it's like Syria has closed against ISIS.posted by kliuless at 11:33 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
ZAKARIA: But what is the chance of this small -- as you put it, this small investment is going to defeat ISIS?
STEPHENS: Well, there is a chance that what it will do is at least shore up a kind of Alawis stand, if you will, in Latakia and then in Damascus. And proved that he is a reliable patron to client states. And that's in his interest, by the way, to show that at least Russian power is power that you can depend on.
BREMMER: And if you're a European that wants to fix Syria or make it stable, you now understand the only road is going to go through Moscow. If you combine that with the fact that the Russians now have told the paramilitaries on the ground back in Ukraine, back off your election, which they've done and they have also kept -- suddenly the cease-fire is actually working. The Russians see that they can clear the Europeans off and the Americans. That's a strategy. That's not a tactic.
ZAKARIA: So you think --
BREMMER: It's a pretty good one.
ZAKARIA: You think that the Syrian maneuver is to get the Europeans, you know, grateful to the Russians and therefore for Europeans to back off of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions expire in December. And they have to --
BREMMER: Absolutely. I don't think the Europeans are with the Americans. I think they're moving farther apart every day. And they're shoring up Assad, as both of our colleagues have said. I don't think this is a bad move for Putin.
ZAKARIA: What do you think?
BEINART: Yes. It seems to me one thing that this is likely to do is increase terrorism against Russia, right? I mean, you have to allow to stand but basically you put yourself on the opposite side of the entire Sunni world and a lot of people who now have a lot of access to Russia through Chechnya so it seems to me, yes, there may be some geopolitical benefits from this and it seems to me you're going to end up with a lot more terrorism in Russia as a result.
IOFFE: Peter makes an excellent point. All the Muslims in Russia are Sunni. Putin is aligning himself with an exclusively Shiite coalition. He is somebody -- and he's doing it in part to export a lot of the -- a lot of the terrorism to the Middle East but it's inevitably going to blow back on him. The other thing he's doing is moving into areas that the U.S. has traditionally dominated. So just this week a representative of the Russian Defense Ministry came out and said hey, look at Afghanistan, it's a total mess. You know, this is really concerning to Russia. America is messing it up badly. So, you know, moving into Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, moving into traditionally or like what has been for the last decade or so America's (INAUDIBLE).
STEPHENS: But if you think of the way Putin has sustained himself in power, the KGB agent becomes the Leningrad technocrat becomes the reformist president in his very first term, those early years. Then becomes the patron of the Oligarchs. He's like a frog who jumps from lily pad to lily pad. And as he feels one of them sinking under his weight he jumps to the next thing. And this is how he sustains his power.
I agree with what Ian said, by the way, it also helps shore up his domestic problem which is in a sinking economy what do dictators do? Distract the people...
ZAKARIA: Do you think Obama should do anything to counter Putin?
BREITBART:[sic] No. I think Obama is looking at this, as he said, if you want to get into a quagmire in Syria, be my guest. I wish we had said the same thing to the Saudis in Yemen. And not gotten involved in that. I mean, just because a country has more troops and more planes flying over another country does not mean that it's stronger. Right? I don't -- it's hard to see even if it helped Putin domestically in some way, very hard to see how it ends well so I think Obama's point of view is go ahead.
"ZAKARIA (responding to BREMMER): You think that the Syrian maneuver is to get the Europeans, you know, grateful to the Russians and therefore for Europeans to back off of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions expire in December..."
This is an interesting idea. In Putin's world, the sanctions are hurting his country right now. Doing something about that might be worth blowing off a future trade deal with Turkey and possibly increasing terrorism later. Imo, he's more concerned with the here and now and less of a chess player than people think.
posted by Kevin Street at 12:34 PM on October 14, 2015
This is an interesting idea. In Putin's world, the sanctions are hurting his country right now. Doing something about that might be worth blowing off a future trade deal with Turkey and possibly increasing terrorism later. Imo, he's more concerned with the here and now and less of a chess player than people think.
posted by Kevin Street at 12:34 PM on October 14, 2015
I mean, you have to allow to stand but basically you put yourself on the opposite side of the entire Sunni world and a lot of people who now have a lot of access to Russia through Chechnya so it seems to me, yes, there may be some geopolitical benefits from this and it seems to me you're going to end up with a lot more terrorism in Russia as a result.ISIS and Al Qaeda are not the entire Sunni world. The terrorist groups affiliated with them in Syria are not the entire Sunni world. Their patrons in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are not the entire Sunni world.
The Wahhabis want to paint this as a war against Sunni Islam, it isn't. The Saudi's are trying to associate Islam with Wahhabism/Salafism, by claiming that to be the majority of Sunnis and by claiming other sects to not even be Muslim [Shia, Alawite].
posted by xqwzts at 12:36 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
a lot of people who now have a lot of access to Russia through Chechnya so it seems to me, yes, there may be some geopolitical benefits from this and it seems to me you're going to end up with a lot more terrorism in Russia as a result.I'm not really sure about this either. The Chechen jihadists haven't been able to cross into Russia for some years now, they're going all the way to Syria because it's much easier than trying to find a route into Russia itself.
If Russia manages to eliminate the threat of Chechen terrorism by taking them out far from home, that's even better than having them sit across the border. And doubtless they've been watching flights enough to be able to nab any that try to hop on a plane back and have a welcome party waiting for them.
posted by xqwzts at 12:41 PM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Wow. In that Newsweek opinion piece, Garry Kasparov wants NATO to "call Putin's bluff" and get into a conflict with Russia, even if that turns into a real shooting war. From his perspective getting rid of Putin is so important it would be worth starting a war that could take thousands of lives. (Even if they're the lives of his own countrymen.) It's hard for me to imagine a viewpoint where that makes sense.
posted by Kevin Street at 12:59 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Kevin Street at 12:59 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
Ben Swann gives interesting background as to how ISIS got to where it is; some facts which the mainstream media mainly forgets to mention.
Christian Science Monitor: Why isn't Russia targeting ISIS in Syria? Because it never said it would.
posted by adamvasco at 2:14 PM on October 14, 2015
Christian Science Monitor: Why isn't Russia targeting ISIS in Syria? Because it never said it would.
posted by adamvasco at 2:14 PM on October 14, 2015
There's no doubt that America fucked up by invading Iraq. They demolished a stable state and created a power vacuum that enabled the later rise of ISIS. But I'm not so sure that American support for the Free Syrian Army directly empowered ISIS. The case made in Ben Swann's video is too simplistic.
At the time the Free Syrian army did seem like the only secular group and the most moderate faction fighting Assad, which is why the US covertly helped them. It didn't work and they collapsed, losing to groups like ISIS that were already better armed. Maybe helping them was a bad idea (I don't really know), but it wasn't a huge mistake on the same level as the Iraq invasion. It was mostly just something that seemed like a good idea at the time that ended up being a waste of money.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:14 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
At the time the Free Syrian army did seem like the only secular group and the most moderate faction fighting Assad, which is why the US covertly helped them. It didn't work and they collapsed, losing to groups like ISIS that were already better armed. Maybe helping them was a bad idea (I don't really know), but it wasn't a huge mistake on the same level as the Iraq invasion. It was mostly just something that seemed like a good idea at the time that ended up being a waste of money.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:14 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
Kevin Street: that's my feeling, too. Well, there were no good options, and I was concerned weapons would fall in to the hands of the zealots. But we were giving them light weapons, from what I gather.
posted by persona au gratin at 3:43 PM on October 14, 2015
posted by persona au gratin at 3:43 PM on October 14, 2015
If Russia manages to eliminate the threat of Chechen terrorism by taking them out far from home
Except that Putin ally and Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov is a former Islamist militia warlord who implemented sharia law in Chechnya.
Confused yet?
posted by Nevin at 3:52 PM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Except that Putin ally and Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov is a former Islamist militia warlord who implemented sharia law in Chechnya.
Confused yet?
posted by Nevin at 3:52 PM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
ISIS weaponry updated August 2015 includes stingers.
U.S missiles were delivered under a two-year-old program between the UA and its allies to help vetted Free Syrian Army groups fight against Assad.
Don't you just love the word "vetted".
posted by adamvasco at 4:04 PM on October 14, 2015
U.S missiles were delivered under a two-year-old program between the UA and its allies to help vetted Free Syrian Army groups fight against Assad.
Don't you just love the word "vetted".
posted by adamvasco at 4:04 PM on October 14, 2015
I don't know about Stingers, but the CIA and Saudi Arabia have been giving away antitank missiles. Apparently it's a completely separate program from the Pentagon one that cost 500 million. And they claim they have measures in place to keep missiles from migrating into extremist hands.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:25 PM on October 14, 2015
posted by Kevin Street at 4:25 PM on October 14, 2015
I think the Russians are going to find it very difficult to pull this off even with Iran and Hezbollah providing what is estimated at 10,000 fresh soldiers on top of Assad's army (SAA). The invasion of Chechnya, the Israeli war against Hezbollah in South Lebanon and American efforts in Hemland Afghanistan and Anbar Iraq represented a similiar kind of challenge. The Russian effort is not nearly at the level of commitment shown in those battles and it isn't like we can point to those battles as successful examples of intervention, charitably we can call them "mixed outcomes"
So now Russia is rolling in to Syria and launching cruise missiles that sometimes miss by two countries and land in Iran. They've got the Iranian Mongomery, General Suleimani with some fresh soldiers, but as we've saw in Iraq this spring and previous campaigns in Syria Suleimani is lots of good press coverage and little battlefield results. Russia is dropping a lot of bombs and will probably kill more civilians. As we saw in the Israeli bombing of Gaza last year, these efforts do very little when your enemy has spent a few years digging tunnels and bunkers. Recall that when Russia went into Grozney the first time it was pretty much a disaster and the Chechyns didn't have access to TOW missiles, which the rebels America sort of likes have been using this year to obliterate Assad's tanks and APC's. IS probabaly won't have many TOW's but their IEDs and the equipment they took from the Iraqi army is going to make it difficult.
posted by humanfont at 5:16 PM on October 14, 2015
So now Russia is rolling in to Syria and launching cruise missiles that sometimes miss by two countries and land in Iran. They've got the Iranian Mongomery, General Suleimani with some fresh soldiers, but as we've saw in Iraq this spring and previous campaigns in Syria Suleimani is lots of good press coverage and little battlefield results. Russia is dropping a lot of bombs and will probably kill more civilians. As we saw in the Israeli bombing of Gaza last year, these efforts do very little when your enemy has spent a few years digging tunnels and bunkers. Recall that when Russia went into Grozney the first time it was pretty much a disaster and the Chechyns didn't have access to TOW missiles, which the rebels America sort of likes have been using this year to obliterate Assad's tanks and APC's. IS probabaly won't have many TOW's but their IEDs and the equipment they took from the Iraqi army is going to make it difficult.
posted by humanfont at 5:16 PM on October 14, 2015
I find this sort of armchair strategizing highly irritating, to be open and honest. It's dehumanizing. If you want to get a first-hand perspective on the war on Syria, check out Marcell Shehwaro's writings. Heartbreaking. Disclaimer: I write for Global Voices.
posted by Nevin at 5:20 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Nevin at 5:20 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
launching cruise missiles that sometimes miss by two countries and land in Iran - Source please.
The nearest I find is BBC - unnamed US officials say.
posted by adamvasco at 5:51 PM on October 14, 2015
The nearest I find is BBC - unnamed US officials say.
posted by adamvasco at 5:51 PM on October 14, 2015
launching cruise missiles that sometimes miss by two countries and land in Iran
Regardless of whether this is true or not (if true it probably means an engine failed, not that the missile was mis-aimed) the point of this ostentatiously-expensive exercise probably wasn't to hit some rebel group; it was to publicly demonstrate that the Russians, unlike the Americans, can secure the cooperation of both Iran and Iraq. It's a very substantial demonstration, too: how many countries would be happy to let the USA fly cruise missiles over their territories?
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:15 PM on October 14, 2015
Regardless of whether this is true or not (if true it probably means an engine failed, not that the missile was mis-aimed) the point of this ostentatiously-expensive exercise probably wasn't to hit some rebel group; it was to publicly demonstrate that the Russians, unlike the Americans, can secure the cooperation of both Iran and Iraq. It's a very substantial demonstration, too: how many countries would be happy to let the USA fly cruise missiles over their territories?
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:15 PM on October 14, 2015
Marcell Shehwaro's writings
Wow this is amazing: How ISIS Came to Leave Its Black Stain on Syria
Perhaps a strong argument could be made that the West should have done more to topple Assad in 2012 or after the "red line" was violated. However, as we see in Libya and Iraq, we would then be obliged to rebuild the Syrian nation-state and that is no easy task. It seems those who make this argument should also be more seriously concerned about how Russia would respond in such a situation. I suspect Putin may have moved in to save the regime then just as he is now. Another big problem is that some of our allies in the region, Turkey, Qatar, KSA, Kuwait, were helping to flood Syria with Salafi jihadists and funding various Islamist groups. Perhaps Obama deserves some blame for allowing them to do this, but could he have stopped it? If he couldn't, then it seems to me we were right to keep our distance. Perhaps Obama could have organized actual ground forces to move in, but AQI was already there for a long time, so such a ground force would have been threatened by many different factions just as we were in Iraq. I don't think Obama would have had popular support for it at home, and again, there is absolutely zero reason to believe Russia and Iran would have allowed this without building an opposing force in Damascus and Latakia and giving Assad the means to attempt to shoot down our aircraft.
Just like his intervention in Ukraine accomplished nothing except the expansion of territory under Russian control.
Really? Russia had pretty much all of Ukraine under its control before. The FSB had infiltrated basically every part of the government, and they were bringing them into the Eurasion Union against the will of the people. They have retained Crimea but Donbas is probably a liability for them more than anything. If Ukraine is able to build a functional state with rule of law and integrate with Europe, it will be a big blow to Russia. Just today there was a pro-Ukraine demonstration in Kharkiv, which is right on the border with Russia. In Timothy Snyder's view Ukraine is actually crucial to solving our problems with Russia. If in twenty years Ukraine has succeeded in instantiating rule of law and a functioning state institutions, it is likely that the Russian people will get tired of Putin and begin to believe they can do the same. (This is a bit too optimistic if you ask me).
Another key point the Snyder makes on the crisis in Syria, is that the USA's decision to destroy the state of Iraq was one of the bigger causes of it. Two million or so refugees flooded Syria. The Sunni insurgency in Iraq, which became AQI and ISIS, moved into Syria for safety and made connections there. Apparently, there was also a massive drought in Syria that caused people to move into the cities leading to even more overcrowding. In Snyder's view these issues helped create the conditions for the uprising.
Perhaps failing to reign global jihad, and some of our allies support for it, has given Putin the biggest opening here. Terror has won the war on terror. Al Qaeda and IS seem to be succeeding everywhere they go: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc. Russia is now very popular in Baghdad, in Egypt, in Syria, and elsewhere, as they are able to convince some of our allies that we are either not serious enough or competent enough to address the problem. I think you have to give the Kremlin credit for this move.
Anyway, I think the key to Putin (and the USA's) strategy at this point is to find a way to force the more moderate rebel groups to separate from Nusra and get them to go back to the negotiating table (Geneva III). Putin may have to put pressure on them to either stay with Nusra as they are now, move into the newly proposed YPG based coalition the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), or in some other way declare neutrality with the regime while helping to destroy ISIS. If they do this, the USA/coalition is in a position to offer them protection from Russia though that probably wouldn't be necessary. But, as long as they are allied with Nusra and Ahrar, I don't think the US can intervene too much on their behalf. Aleppo will be interesting to watch as ISIS is actually advancing into rebel held territory, basically with the help of Russia. It seems to me it will be extremely difficult for the rebels to hold onto Aleppo.
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:43 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
Wow this is amazing: How ISIS Came to Leave Its Black Stain on Syria
...the Syrian people did not have the opportunity to go shopping at the “Victory Supermarket”, where items such as the option of Assad fleeing in the style of Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, or stepping down like Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, were on sale. Nor did we have enough oil to buy the NATO option, like Libya. Instead, we purchased Al-Qaeda, which we found wrapped in yellow tape in the discount bin.It shows the incredible desperation and the yearning for freedom from Assad that lead the the Syrian revolution that has consumed and destroyed Syria. I'm not sure if anyone has good sources on the beginnings of the revolution and all of the forces that were at play. I understand it was quite complicated; not just based on sect, but also class. Higher educated people who had connections to the regime mostly opposed the revolution. In places like Aleppo, I think you can still sense this division now. It's also worth noting that there was previously an Islamist, Muslim Brotherhood, uprising in Syria in the late 70's and early 80's, though I don't think this uprising necessarily had any Islamist roots originally. That seems to have happened only after Assad cracked down on protesters with the SAA.
Simply put, we Syrians did not have the luxury of choice, while others had plans to dispose of their damaged goods on our land, using the blood of our youth.
Perhaps a strong argument could be made that the West should have done more to topple Assad in 2012 or after the "red line" was violated. However, as we see in Libya and Iraq, we would then be obliged to rebuild the Syrian nation-state and that is no easy task. It seems those who make this argument should also be more seriously concerned about how Russia would respond in such a situation. I suspect Putin may have moved in to save the regime then just as he is now. Another big problem is that some of our allies in the region, Turkey, Qatar, KSA, Kuwait, were helping to flood Syria with Salafi jihadists and funding various Islamist groups. Perhaps Obama deserves some blame for allowing them to do this, but could he have stopped it? If he couldn't, then it seems to me we were right to keep our distance. Perhaps Obama could have organized actual ground forces to move in, but AQI was already there for a long time, so such a ground force would have been threatened by many different factions just as we were in Iraq. I don't think Obama would have had popular support for it at home, and again, there is absolutely zero reason to believe Russia and Iran would have allowed this without building an opposing force in Damascus and Latakia and giving Assad the means to attempt to shoot down our aircraft.
Just like his intervention in Ukraine accomplished nothing except the expansion of territory under Russian control.
Really? Russia had pretty much all of Ukraine under its control before. The FSB had infiltrated basically every part of the government, and they were bringing them into the Eurasion Union against the will of the people. They have retained Crimea but Donbas is probably a liability for them more than anything. If Ukraine is able to build a functional state with rule of law and integrate with Europe, it will be a big blow to Russia. Just today there was a pro-Ukraine demonstration in Kharkiv, which is right on the border with Russia. In Timothy Snyder's view Ukraine is actually crucial to solving our problems with Russia. If in twenty years Ukraine has succeeded in instantiating rule of law and a functioning state institutions, it is likely that the Russian people will get tired of Putin and begin to believe they can do the same. (This is a bit too optimistic if you ask me).
Another key point the Snyder makes on the crisis in Syria, is that the USA's decision to destroy the state of Iraq was one of the bigger causes of it. Two million or so refugees flooded Syria. The Sunni insurgency in Iraq, which became AQI and ISIS, moved into Syria for safety and made connections there. Apparently, there was also a massive drought in Syria that caused people to move into the cities leading to even more overcrowding. In Snyder's view these issues helped create the conditions for the uprising.
Perhaps failing to reign global jihad, and some of our allies support for it, has given Putin the biggest opening here. Terror has won the war on terror. Al Qaeda and IS seem to be succeeding everywhere they go: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc. Russia is now very popular in Baghdad, in Egypt, in Syria, and elsewhere, as they are able to convince some of our allies that we are either not serious enough or competent enough to address the problem. I think you have to give the Kremlin credit for this move.
Anyway, I think the key to Putin (and the USA's) strategy at this point is to find a way to force the more moderate rebel groups to separate from Nusra and get them to go back to the negotiating table (Geneva III). Putin may have to put pressure on them to either stay with Nusra as they are now, move into the newly proposed YPG based coalition the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), or in some other way declare neutrality with the regime while helping to destroy ISIS. If they do this, the USA/coalition is in a position to offer them protection from Russia though that probably wouldn't be necessary. But, as long as they are allied with Nusra and Ahrar, I don't think the US can intervene too much on their behalf. Aleppo will be interesting to watch as ISIS is actually advancing into rebel held territory, basically with the help of Russia. It seems to me it will be extremely difficult for the rebels to hold onto Aleppo.
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:43 PM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
What if Putin just wants a "Syria" big enough to legitimise his Russia's naval base? It's much easier to protect a frontier than to pacify a region: he could draw a line on the map that includes his allies and let the rest go to hell.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:48 PM on October 14, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:48 PM on October 14, 2015
Why isn't Russia targeting ISIS in Syria? Because it never said it would
posted by the man of twists and turns at 10:53 PM on October 14, 2015
posted by the man of twists and turns at 10:53 PM on October 14, 2015
>>launching cruise missiles that sometimes miss by two countries and land in Iran - Source please.
>The nearest I find is BBC - unnamed US officials say.
I've seen links to Iranian sources passed around, even though the authorities have not confirmed any of these stories.. Here's a summary of the reports.
posted by daniel_charms at 11:11 PM on October 14, 2015
>The nearest I find is BBC - unnamed US officials say.
I've seen links to Iranian sources passed around, even though the authorities have not confirmed any of these stories.. Here's a summary of the reports.
posted by daniel_charms at 11:11 PM on October 14, 2015
Anyway, I think the key to Putin (and the USA's) strategy at this point is to find a way to force the more moderate rebel groups to separate from Nusra and get them to go back to the negotiating table (Geneva III).
It's disquieting to hear that groups that fight with, cooperate with, and freely interchange members with Al Qaeda are considered "moderate".
posted by xqwzts at 4:18 AM on October 15, 2015
It's disquieting to hear that groups that fight with, cooperate with, and freely interchange members with Al Qaeda are considered "moderate".
posted by xqwzts at 4:18 AM on October 15, 2015
I don't mean that to be snarky, I think it's a serious problem.
People are talking about distancing these groups from Al Qaeda, to give them some legitimacy, but for the past couple of years they've been indistinguishable from each other, why should they suddenly be granted clemency and viewed as viable alternatives or partners in a future Syrian state?
posted by xqwzts at 4:21 AM on October 15, 2015
People are talking about distancing these groups from Al Qaeda, to give them some legitimacy, but for the past couple of years they've been indistinguishable from each other, why should they suddenly be granted clemency and viewed as viable alternatives or partners in a future Syrian state?
posted by xqwzts at 4:21 AM on October 15, 2015
The people whom make up the majority of the moderate opposition have fled Syria. Convincing some sane middle aged guy with a family and who was until recently a teacher, plumber, lawyer, electrician, Doctor, etc to take up arms and go back to face down Assad, AlQaeda, IS and the other groups is a fantasy.
posted by humanfont at 6:54 AM on October 15, 2015
posted by humanfont at 6:54 AM on October 15, 2015
A large portion of the "moderate" rebels are SAA units that defected early on. Perhaps the best chance the revolution had was for much larger defections to take place and maybe a coup.
There are a couple of fairly sizable rebel groups, Jaysh al-Thuwar and Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa, that have actually joined the SDF, but they already had good relations with YPG, I believe. I don't know what the chances are of getting other rebel groups to join. In general they hate the YPG, who they believe are now aligning with Putin and Assad. SDF is only in the North. The Southern and Northern fronts are quite different I hear.
This is a list of vetted rebel groups: THE MODERATE REBELS: A GROWING LIST OF VETTED GROUPS FIELDING BGM-71 TOW ANTI-TANK GUIDED MISSILES
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:42 AM on October 15, 2015
There are a couple of fairly sizable rebel groups, Jaysh al-Thuwar and Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa, that have actually joined the SDF, but they already had good relations with YPG, I believe. I don't know what the chances are of getting other rebel groups to join. In general they hate the YPG, who they believe are now aligning with Putin and Assad. SDF is only in the North. The Southern and Northern fronts are quite different I hear.
This is a list of vetted rebel groups: THE MODERATE REBELS: A GROWING LIST OF VETTED GROUPS FIELDING BGM-71 TOW ANTI-TANK GUIDED MISSILES
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:42 AM on October 15, 2015
I Got Syria So Wrong - I spent early 2011 trying to ease tensions between Syria and its neighbors. I never predicted the brutality that would come from inside. (FREDERIC HOF)
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:53 AM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:53 AM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
Thousands of Iranian Troops Are Teaming Up with Russia for an Assault on Aleppo
"The international coalition led by America has failed in the fight against terrorism. The cooperation between Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Russia has been positive and successful," Boroujerdi was quoted as saying by Iran's state broadcaster IRIB as he arrived at Damascus airport.posted by Golden Eternity at 9:32 AM on October 15, 2015
ISW: Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 14
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:27 AM on October 15, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:27 AM on October 15, 2015
ISW is in favor of a much more significant US intervention IIRC and has tended to skew things towards influencing policy makers in that direction.
posted by humanfont at 10:43 AM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by humanfont at 10:43 AM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
A large portion of the "moderate" rebels are SAA units that defected early on. Perhaps the best chance the revolution had was for much larger defections to take place and maybe a coup.
Sure, if the army had abandoned Assad, then they would have deposed him and replaced him with a military dictator, I doubt anything would have actually changed other than the figurehead though.
There are a couple of fairly sizable rebel groups, Jaysh al-Thuwar and Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa, that have actually joined the SDF, but they already had good relations with YPG, I believe. I don't know what the chances are of getting other rebel groups to join.
The wiki link claims those sizable rebel groups amount to 4,000 fighters. YPG is estimated to have about 50,000. They're being added in so it can be packaged as an Arab force, more representative of the rest of the nation, and a viable alternative to Assad. The numbers just don't add up.
In general they hate the YPG, who they believe are now aligning with Putin and Assad. SDF is only in the North. The Southern and Northern fronts are quite different I hear.
And that feeling is fairly mutual, many of these rebel groups joined Al Qaeda/Nusra and ISIS in fighting the YPG in northern Syria.
It feels like the US is pushing for this SDF formation and upcoming assault as a countermeasure to Russia's involvement. If they can start liberating the country from the east, it will eventually boil down to carving the country up between SDF and government enclaves.
I'm not sure the YPG is ready to take Raqqa, it's far, easily reinforced, and ISIS has had a long time to entrench themselves in it. They also won't be moving around friendly civilians [which is why they need the cover of SDF as an Arab force rather than Kurdish YPG]. I hope they don't rush things and fail just because the Americans want to one-up Putin.
I'd also worry that the U.S. is forcing the YPG into a conflict with the Syrian government [they currently have a truce, promise of autonomy for whatever that is worth, and fight alongside each other in Hasakah] which would just be a lose-lose situation all around.
posted by xqwzts at 10:47 AM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
Sure, if the army had abandoned Assad, then they would have deposed him and replaced him with a military dictator, I doubt anything would have actually changed other than the figurehead though.
There are a couple of fairly sizable rebel groups, Jaysh al-Thuwar and Liwa Thuwwar al-Raqqa, that have actually joined the SDF, but they already had good relations with YPG, I believe. I don't know what the chances are of getting other rebel groups to join.
The wiki link claims those sizable rebel groups amount to 4,000 fighters. YPG is estimated to have about 50,000. They're being added in so it can be packaged as an Arab force, more representative of the rest of the nation, and a viable alternative to Assad. The numbers just don't add up.
In general they hate the YPG, who they believe are now aligning with Putin and Assad. SDF is only in the North. The Southern and Northern fronts are quite different I hear.
And that feeling is fairly mutual, many of these rebel groups joined Al Qaeda/Nusra and ISIS in fighting the YPG in northern Syria.
It feels like the US is pushing for this SDF formation and upcoming assault as a countermeasure to Russia's involvement. If they can start liberating the country from the east, it will eventually boil down to carving the country up between SDF and government enclaves.
I'm not sure the YPG is ready to take Raqqa, it's far, easily reinforced, and ISIS has had a long time to entrench themselves in it. They also won't be moving around friendly civilians [which is why they need the cover of SDF as an Arab force rather than Kurdish YPG]. I hope they don't rush things and fail just because the Americans want to one-up Putin.
I'd also worry that the U.S. is forcing the YPG into a conflict with the Syrian government [they currently have a truce, promise of autonomy for whatever that is worth, and fight alongside each other in Hasakah] which would just be a lose-lose situation all around.
posted by xqwzts at 10:47 AM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
Ankara (AFP) - Turkey and Saudi Arabia on Thursday warned Russia over the consequences of its intervention in Syria, with Ankara telling Moscow its bombing campaign in support of the regime was a "big mistake"
posted by rosswald at 11:38 AM on October 15, 2015
posted by rosswald at 11:38 AM on October 15, 2015
The Iranians are on Turkey’s border
After tumultuous history, what's next for Turkish-Iranian relations?
posted by adamvasco at 3:01 PM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
After tumultuous history, what's next for Turkish-Iranian relations?
posted by adamvasco at 3:01 PM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
OK, so Syria is The Balkans; Iran is Russia; Turkey is the Ottoman Empire (of course) and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the Dual Alliance of Austria and Germany.
But who is Franz Ferdinand?
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:55 PM on October 15, 2015
But who is Franz Ferdinand?
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:55 PM on October 15, 2015
The US Ambassador to Iraq. (Stuart Jones or something is his name, I guess).
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:17 PM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:17 PM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
I often wonder if the US, Iran and Russia already have a secret deal in place and a lot of this public stuff is just theater to placate various allies and domestic political groups. A kind of frenemy strategy.
posted by humanfont at 4:27 PM on October 15, 2015
posted by humanfont at 4:27 PM on October 15, 2015
I do not want this reality; it is not the one I requested:
Russia-Israel ‘hotline’ to prevent aerial clashes in Syria
Russia-Israel ‘hotline’ to prevent aerial clashes in Syria
Moscow says two armies are undergoing training to boost cooperation following Netanyahu-Putin meeting last monthposted by Joe in Australia at 5:41 PM on October 15, 2015 [1 favorite]
Funny. I heard the US and Russia don't even have a hotline anymore. Seeing as how Obama and Bibi aren't talking, maybe Obama could call Rouhani if he needs to get through to Putin? But this shows what kind of miracles Putin is able to pull off in the region currently. It may not be such a bad thing that he is there. I mean, the pro-Assad part of Syria is seriously, seriously anti-Semitic. Their number one saying is, "why are Arabs attacking Assad instead of Israel." Like the only thing wrong with ISIS is they are killing other Arabs instead of Jews. And now Putin is doing military exercises with Israel and pro-Assad Syrians loves him. There are also extremely sectarian Sunni Iraqi nationalists super excited at the prospect of Putin replacing the USA in Baghdad for some reason.
Sure, if the army had abandoned Assad, then they would have deposed him and replaced him with a military dictator, I doubt anything would have actually changed other than the figurehead though.
Nah, the protesters would still be demanding change. If the Army turned against Assad, it would have been because they refused to slaughter their own people. I don't think they would follow this up by slaughtering the protesters anyway, but who knows.
The wiki link claims those sizable rebel groups amount to 4,000 fighters. YPG is estimated to have about 50,000. They're being added in so it can be packaged as an Arab force, more representative of the rest of the nation, and a viable alternative to Assad. The numbers just don't add up.
No, it's certainly not a viable alternative to Assad. The only way the Regime falls is if the rebels remain in a coalition with Nusra and actually defeat Russia, Iran, and Syria. Also, the SDF Arab fighters are composed of people loyal to their locality or tribe or that are rejects from the stronger rebel groups. It's not a strong fighting force. And SDF is only in the North, excluding Idlib which is mostly Nusra and Ahrar. There is a large rebel area in the South along the border with Jordan where perhaps a similar situation could occur: moderate groups separate from Nusra, maintain a ceasefire with the regime, and ultimately restart talks. Then achieve some sort of federalization or autonomy from Damascus and possibly a transition away from Assad. It's a tougher sell there though. If Aleppo is about to collapse, maybe some of its rebel groups will see little other choice. There is a YPG area in Aleppo, Sheikh Maqsood, where SDF could coalesce.
It feels like the US is pushing for this SDF formation and upcoming assault as a countermeasure to Russia's involvement. If they can start liberating the country from the east, it will eventually boil down to carving the country up between SDF and government enclaves.
I don't think that's quite accurate, though I would think the US has been pushing for this. YPG is not going to donate too many of their fighters lives to push ISIS out of Arab areas that are not in Rojava. They need Arab allies from these regions to take and hold the territory. I'm sure YPG has been driving this on their own, and recently they have also been talking about aligning with Russia, who they've had many meetings with lately. The USA may have felt pressure to support YPG better before they were displaced by Russia as its primary backer.
Ameri and others in Iraq have said they plan to go into Syria after Anbar. I think it's highly likely Deir Ezzor will be taken with help from Iraq. Assad also still in Qamishli in Hassaka. So there may be something of a competition in the East between SDF and Assad/Russia to gain influence over the local Sunni tribes.
I'm not sure the YPG is ready to take Raqqa, it's far, easily reinforced, and ISIS has had a long time to entrench themselves in it.
It's not clear what they will do next. YPG has said they will make their own decisions based on their strengths and ISIS' weaknesses. It's probably more likely they'd try to slide to the west of Raqqa to cutoff its supply from Turkey. In the meantime they could push south from Hasakah and try to cut LOC to Deir Ezzor with YBS and PUK Pershmerga in Iraq cutting off LOC from Deir Ezzor to Mosul and slowly closing in on Deir Ezzor. Perhas SDF and Iraqi Hashd/Syrian Regime forces could meet together at Deir Ezzor and then move towards Raqqa from the East.
I'd also worry that the U.S. is forcing the YPG into a conflict with the Syrian government
There have been some worrying signs of that, but it's probably best that YPG retain good relations with both Russia and USA and not become too aligned with either side. They are vulnerable to rebel forces near Afrin, Kobane, and Aleppo. They are vulnerable to the regime in Aleppo and Hasakah. So if they are able to bring over some Sunni Arab forces it should help their security situation I would think. I also think Putin may want to bring "moderate rebels" over to his side if he desires to retain control of the entire country. This would almost certainly involve dumping Assad and perhaps empowering a Sunni leader similar to Kadyrov.
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:03 PM on October 15, 2015
Sure, if the army had abandoned Assad, then they would have deposed him and replaced him with a military dictator, I doubt anything would have actually changed other than the figurehead though.
Nah, the protesters would still be demanding change. If the Army turned against Assad, it would have been because they refused to slaughter their own people. I don't think they would follow this up by slaughtering the protesters anyway, but who knows.
The wiki link claims those sizable rebel groups amount to 4,000 fighters. YPG is estimated to have about 50,000. They're being added in so it can be packaged as an Arab force, more representative of the rest of the nation, and a viable alternative to Assad. The numbers just don't add up.
No, it's certainly not a viable alternative to Assad. The only way the Regime falls is if the rebels remain in a coalition with Nusra and actually defeat Russia, Iran, and Syria. Also, the SDF Arab fighters are composed of people loyal to their locality or tribe or that are rejects from the stronger rebel groups. It's not a strong fighting force. And SDF is only in the North, excluding Idlib which is mostly Nusra and Ahrar. There is a large rebel area in the South along the border with Jordan where perhaps a similar situation could occur: moderate groups separate from Nusra, maintain a ceasefire with the regime, and ultimately restart talks. Then achieve some sort of federalization or autonomy from Damascus and possibly a transition away from Assad. It's a tougher sell there though. If Aleppo is about to collapse, maybe some of its rebel groups will see little other choice. There is a YPG area in Aleppo, Sheikh Maqsood, where SDF could coalesce.
It feels like the US is pushing for this SDF formation and upcoming assault as a countermeasure to Russia's involvement. If they can start liberating the country from the east, it will eventually boil down to carving the country up between SDF and government enclaves.
I don't think that's quite accurate, though I would think the US has been pushing for this. YPG is not going to donate too many of their fighters lives to push ISIS out of Arab areas that are not in Rojava. They need Arab allies from these regions to take and hold the territory. I'm sure YPG has been driving this on their own, and recently they have also been talking about aligning with Russia, who they've had many meetings with lately. The USA may have felt pressure to support YPG better before they were displaced by Russia as its primary backer.
Ameri and others in Iraq have said they plan to go into Syria after Anbar. I think it's highly likely Deir Ezzor will be taken with help from Iraq. Assad also still in Qamishli in Hassaka. So there may be something of a competition in the East between SDF and Assad/Russia to gain influence over the local Sunni tribes.
I'm not sure the YPG is ready to take Raqqa, it's far, easily reinforced, and ISIS has had a long time to entrench themselves in it.
It's not clear what they will do next. YPG has said they will make their own decisions based on their strengths and ISIS' weaknesses. It's probably more likely they'd try to slide to the west of Raqqa to cutoff its supply from Turkey. In the meantime they could push south from Hasakah and try to cut LOC to Deir Ezzor with YBS and PUK Pershmerga in Iraq cutting off LOC from Deir Ezzor to Mosul and slowly closing in on Deir Ezzor. Perhas SDF and Iraqi Hashd/Syrian Regime forces could meet together at Deir Ezzor and then move towards Raqqa from the East.
I'd also worry that the U.S. is forcing the YPG into a conflict with the Syrian government
There have been some worrying signs of that, but it's probably best that YPG retain good relations with both Russia and USA and not become too aligned with either side. They are vulnerable to rebel forces near Afrin, Kobane, and Aleppo. They are vulnerable to the regime in Aleppo and Hasakah. So if they are able to bring over some Sunni Arab forces it should help their security situation I would think. I also think Putin may want to bring "moderate rebels" over to his side if he desires to retain control of the entire country. This would almost certainly involve dumping Assad and perhaps empowering a Sunni leader similar to Kadyrov.
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:03 PM on October 15, 2015
He's not put any boots on the ground, his involvement can be dispensed with at any moment by simply disengaging naval and air force
There are Russian military personnel there. ISIS will target them.
posted by Ironmouth at 12:54 PM on October 16, 2015
There are Russian military personnel there. ISIS will target them.
posted by Ironmouth at 12:54 PM on October 16, 2015
The hotline telephone was just movie fiction. There was a telex until the mid 80s, then a secure fax and now there is a private network with electronic mail.
posted by humanfont at 2:02 PM on October 16, 2015
posted by humanfont at 2:02 PM on October 16, 2015
now there is a private network with electronic mail.
This is where that comment came from, but it appears to mostly be anti-Obama linkbait. The hotline to Moscow goes cold - U.S. military leaders are struggling to communicate with Russia to avoid a larger confrontation.
A great talk on ISIS by Hassan Hassan and Will McCants: Understanding ISIS
Both of these articles were pretty good on the insanity in Damascus:
The Slow Death of Damascus - The hollowing-out of Syria’s middle class is leaving behind a dangerous vacuum — and forcing Russia and Iran to step in to bolster Assad’s depleted ranks.
The siege of Damascus: Everyday life in Syria’s savage war
posted by Golden Eternity at 7:45 PM on October 16, 2015 [1 favorite]
This is where that comment came from, but it appears to mostly be anti-Obama linkbait. The hotline to Moscow goes cold - U.S. military leaders are struggling to communicate with Russia to avoid a larger confrontation.
A great talk on ISIS by Hassan Hassan and Will McCants: Understanding ISIS
Both of these articles were pretty good on the insanity in Damascus:
The Slow Death of Damascus - The hollowing-out of Syria’s middle class is leaving behind a dangerous vacuum — and forcing Russia and Iran to step in to bolster Assad’s depleted ranks.
The siege of Damascus: Everyday life in Syria’s savage war
posted by Golden Eternity at 7:45 PM on October 16, 2015 [1 favorite]
U.S. Alliance With Syrian Kurds Against ISIS Has Many Worried About What’s Next
posted by Golden Eternity at 7:52 PM on October 16, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 7:52 PM on October 16, 2015
This map has supposedly come from the Russian Ministry of Defense and seems to layout how they see the conflict. The green and black areas are "terrorists" (Al Nusra and IS) while the Kurds are Orange not labeled as such.
posted by humanfont at 6:55 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by humanfont at 6:55 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]
Interesting how they've marked the oil fields.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:17 PM on October 18, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:17 PM on October 18, 2015
Interesting perspective on Russia's military adventures:
Ukrainian Dream Turned Into a Nightmare - Kiev and the West are winning. Now is not the time to let Moscow off the hook.
posted by Golden Eternity at 3:04 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]
Ukrainian Dream Turned Into a Nightmare - Kiev and the West are winning. Now is not the time to let Moscow off the hook.
posted by Golden Eternity at 3:04 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]
This is a great interview with Sergei Ivanov:
Sergey Ivanov: Don't think the Kremlin always decides everything, sometimes it doesn't
It doesn't seem like they've thought this out very far, but it's clear they see opportunities to get more involved in the region after US failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, and Syria.
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:16 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]
Sergey Ivanov: Don't think the Kremlin always decides everything, sometimes it doesn't
It doesn't seem like they've thought this out very far, but it's clear they see opportunities to get more involved in the region after US failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, and Syria.
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:16 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]
Henry Kissinger: A Path Out of the Middle East Collapse
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:33 PM on October 20, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:33 PM on October 20, 2015
Power failure in Iraq as militias outgun state
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:24 AM on October 21, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 8:24 AM on October 21, 2015
THE RUSSIAN INTERVENTION IN SYRIA: POLICY OPTIONS AND EXIT STRATEGIES
posted by Golden Eternity at 1:38 PM on October 21, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 1:38 PM on October 21, 2015
The Western media have lost the plot in Syria.
Meanwhile Juan Cole asks: The Aleppo Strategy against Daesh/ ISIL: Can it Work?
posted by adamvasco at 2:06 PM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile Juan Cole asks: The Aleppo Strategy against Daesh/ ISIL: Can it Work?
posted by adamvasco at 2:06 PM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]
Syrian Arab militias dispute they received U.S. airdrop of ammunition
posted by Golden Eternity at 6:48 PM on October 21, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 6:48 PM on October 21, 2015
dont worry jimmy is on it: Jimmy Carter Offers Help for Russia’s Bombing Campaign in Syria
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:31 PM on October 21, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:31 PM on October 21, 2015
The Kremlin apparently didn't get Jimmy Carter's joke
They're not the only ones.
The End of Pax Americana - Why Washington’s Middle East Pullback Makes Sense
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:15 AM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]
They're not the only ones.
The End of Pax Americana - Why Washington’s Middle East Pullback Makes Sense
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:15 AM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]
Was there ever a Pax Americana? Except in the very limited sense that the USA and USSR agreed not to compete over allies in Europe, I can't see much evidence for it.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:15 PM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:15 PM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]
Interesting. I think this may be the first time I've seen a story mentioning the Russian-Jordan relationship: Russia, Jordan agree on military coordination on Syria
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:05 PM on October 28, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:05 PM on October 28, 2015
Report: Russia transporting Iranian weapons into Syria in violation of UN embargo
My thoughts:
Iran was already shipping arms to Syria and scarcely needs Russian help. I think this was a demonstration about the degree of Russian/Iranian cooperation, like Russia's use of Iranian airspace for ballistic missile attacks on anti-Assad forces. It sends a signal.
Syria and its neighbours fall into three groups:
1) Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria itself are dominated by Iran;
2) Jordan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia fear Iran but have no coherent strategy for intervening in Syria; and
3) Turkey.
Russia is now associated with the first group of nations and has come to some arrangement with the second. Its relationship with Turkey is very strained; Turkey is the only one of these countries that is expressly anti-Assad. That doesn't mean that Turkey is aligned with the USA, though: Turkey is effectively pro-ISIS and has refused to cooperate with the USA's local strategy. Now that Russia reportedly has at least cooperation from all other regional actors I would say that the USA has very little room to move.
There's a chance that this will force Turkey to start cooperating with the USA, but Russian activities in Syrian airspace mean that US intervention could spark a confrontation between US and Russian forces. The USA has been withdrawing from the region for some time; it has repeatedly declined overt intervention in Syria; I think it's very unlikely that the US will now risk a conflict with Russia now that its hand has been declared.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:02 PM on October 28, 2015
My thoughts:
Iran was already shipping arms to Syria and scarcely needs Russian help. I think this was a demonstration about the degree of Russian/Iranian cooperation, like Russia's use of Iranian airspace for ballistic missile attacks on anti-Assad forces. It sends a signal.
Syria and its neighbours fall into three groups:
1) Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria itself are dominated by Iran;
2) Jordan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia fear Iran but have no coherent strategy for intervening in Syria; and
3) Turkey.
Russia is now associated with the first group of nations and has come to some arrangement with the second. Its relationship with Turkey is very strained; Turkey is the only one of these countries that is expressly anti-Assad. That doesn't mean that Turkey is aligned with the USA, though: Turkey is effectively pro-ISIS and has refused to cooperate with the USA's local strategy. Now that Russia reportedly has at least cooperation from all other regional actors I would say that the USA has very little room to move.
There's a chance that this will force Turkey to start cooperating with the USA, but Russian activities in Syrian airspace mean that US intervention could spark a confrontation between US and Russian forces. The USA has been withdrawing from the region for some time; it has repeatedly declined overt intervention in Syria; I think it's very unlikely that the US will now risk a conflict with Russia now that its hand has been declared.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:02 PM on October 28, 2015
Russia calls for fresh elections in Syria - "Moscow appeared to lean on Mr Assad to open up to dialogue with opposition groups and... subsequently claimed the Syrian leader was open to working with moderate opposition forces and viewed positively the idea of Russian support for armed opposition groups who fight Isis."
Justin Trudeau to end Canada's bombing mission in Iraq and Syria - "Mr Trudeau has promised to boost the number of Syrian refugees to Canada from 15,000 to 25,000... He also said he will end Canada's bombing mission against Isis in Syria and Iraq and restore the diplomacy with Iran, marking a u-turn from Mr Harper's interventionist approach."
US plans to step up air strikes on Isis oilfields - "The Pentagon plans to step up air strikes against Isis-controlled oil facilities in Syria as the US seeks to revamp its flagging military strategy against the jihadi group."
Iran agrees to join Vienna summit on Syria crisis - "While expectations remain low of quickly overcoming entrenched differences on Syria, the meeting breaks ground in bringing together Iran and Russia — the main backers of Bashar al-Assad's regime — with those agitating for his ousting, including the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia."
"Meanwhile, it emerged that the number of deaths of Iranian generals has increased after the Russian military intervention. The elite Revolutionary Guards confirmed this week that this has been because of a rise in the number of Iranian 'military advisers' in Syria. Analysts believe this is to support Russian air raids."
posted by kliuless at 6:48 AM on October 29, 2015 [2 favorites]
Opposition fighters in Syria quickly dismissed the possibility that they could work together with the Assad regime they have been fighting for years, or that they could trust Russia.Russia Said to Back Early Syria Vote to Give Assad New Term - "Alexei Pushkov, a senior Russian lawmaker, said on his Twitter feed this week after Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper's election defeat that many of the Western leaders calling for Assad's ouster will 'leave the stage long before he does.' "
“I don’t like this talk, the Russians are liars. I think they got themselves stuck and are trying to find a way out,” said a rebel commander with the First Army in southern Deraa, an ideologically moderate group with ties to the west. “But we will never surrender, we will triumph or we will die.”
A rebel commander from an FSA group on the front line area near Isis positions in Aleppo province, who claims to have come under Russian air strikes, said when asked about a Russian offer of air support: “Are you joking? That’s funny.”
Justin Trudeau to end Canada's bombing mission in Iraq and Syria - "Mr Trudeau has promised to boost the number of Syrian refugees to Canada from 15,000 to 25,000... He also said he will end Canada's bombing mission against Isis in Syria and Iraq and restore the diplomacy with Iran, marking a u-turn from Mr Harper's interventionist approach."
US plans to step up air strikes on Isis oilfields - "The Pentagon plans to step up air strikes against Isis-controlled oil facilities in Syria as the US seeks to revamp its flagging military strategy against the jihadi group."
Iran agrees to join Vienna summit on Syria crisis - "While expectations remain low of quickly overcoming entrenched differences on Syria, the meeting breaks ground in bringing together Iran and Russia — the main backers of Bashar al-Assad's regime — with those agitating for his ousting, including the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia."
US secretary of state John Kerry said the talks represented the “most promising opportunity for a political opening” to end the Syrian conflict. However, he added: “the challenge we face in Syria today is nothing less than to chart a course out of hell”...also btw, this was kind of a weird paragraph at the end...
Mr Assad’s staunchest opponents in Turkey and the west have begun to show some flexibility in recent months over their previous demands that he be removed. This clears the path for discussions on a staggered political transition.
Up to a dozen countries in total may participate in the talks, which will try to find common ground on Mr Assad’s future, on how to involve opposition groups and on how to deal with Isis. Others expected to attend include several European countries as well as regional powers including Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.
Since the start of the crisis, Iran has supported a “political process” in Syria in which elections should determine the fate of the regime. Western diplomats, however, say Iranian officials in private meetings have clarified that, for them, Mr Assad remains a red line for Tehran.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly said in recent months that there could be no bilateral talks with the US on regional issues. He has claimed that Washington was not serious about crushing Isis and has not not stopped Saudi Arabia and Turkey from backing Sunni extremists.
"Meanwhile, it emerged that the number of deaths of Iranian generals has increased after the Russian military intervention. The elite Revolutionary Guards confirmed this week that this has been because of a rise in the number of Iranian 'military advisers' in Syria. Analysts believe this is to support Russian air raids."
posted by kliuless at 6:48 AM on October 29, 2015 [2 favorites]
HA Hellyer: A rather long discussion on Islam, Muslim Westerners, Egypt's revolutionary uprising, and Islamism. Nice questions.
Frontline: Inside Assad's Syria
Iran's Proxies in Syria
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:36 PM on October 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
Frontline: Inside Assad's Syria
Iran's Proxies in Syria
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:36 PM on October 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
Russia, the SAA and IRGC spent the last two weeks trying to break the siege of Kuweries Airbase outside Allepo. The offensive failed. State media in now boasting about the liberation of 80 square kilometers from the terrorists to try to put a positive spin on things.
posted by humanfont at 9:10 PM on October 29, 2015
posted by humanfont at 9:10 PM on October 29, 2015
In Syria, Russian media take a page from US playbook
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:23 AM on October 30, 2015
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:23 AM on October 30, 2015
Russia's Entry into Syria Worsens Killings of Medical Workers on War's Front Lines
While Condemning Assad, U.S. Bombs Afghan Hospital & Backs Devastating Saudi War on Yemen
posted by homunculus at 3:30 PM on October 30, 2015
While Condemning Assad, U.S. Bombs Afghan Hospital & Backs Devastating Saudi War on Yemen
posted by homunculus at 3:30 PM on October 30, 2015
Another question: what is Israel doing in Syria?
Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in Syria
Honestly, we just see little bits of the picture and I have no idea what anyone's long-term game strategy is, or even if they have one.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:34 PM on November 1, 2015
Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in Syria
Honestly, we just see little bits of the picture and I have no idea what anyone's long-term game strategy is, or even if they have one.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:34 PM on November 1, 2015
Usually you hear they are bombing weapons shipments from Iran to Hezbollah possibly including long range rockets.
Unfixable: How Obama lost Syria
This seems like such a fuck-up. Either they should have provided decisive aid to the rebels in 2012 or welcomed Russia's offer to remove Assad.
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:00 PM on November 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
Unfixable: How Obama lost Syria
This seems like such a fuck-up. Either they should have provided decisive aid to the rebels in 2012 or welcomed Russia's offer to remove Assad.
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:00 PM on November 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
The Russian deal that the article itself casts signficiant doubts on? Keep in mind there were two ceasefire agreements in 2012 that were even weaker than this (a ceasefire to be followed by a period of negotiations with Assad's future role tbd). Both those efforts failed.
posted by humanfont at 6:06 PM on November 2, 2015
posted by humanfont at 6:06 PM on November 2, 2015
New map as of Nov. 2nd
SAA/Russia/Iran have resumed offensive around Allepo and are now about 2km from Kuwieres.
posted by humanfont at 5:44 AM on November 3, 2015
SAA/Russia/Iran have resumed offensive around Allepo and are now about 2km from Kuwieres.
posted by humanfont at 5:44 AM on November 3, 2015
The Times of Israel has been running a lot of stories that presumably come from Russian sources:
Russian, US jets drill together to avoid tie up over Syria — Kremlin
Maybe this would be a circuit-breaker that would let the USA extricate itself gracefully:
In apparent about-face, Russia says Syria’s Assad can step down
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:33 PM on November 3, 2015 [1 favorite]
Russian, US jets drill together to avoid tie up over Syria — Kremlin
Maybe this would be a circuit-breaker that would let the USA extricate itself gracefully:
In apparent about-face, Russia says Syria’s Assad can step down
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:33 PM on November 3, 2015 [1 favorite]
Yes, well: Stop the War refuse to listen to Syrians during debate…on Syria
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:49 PM on November 4, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:49 PM on November 4, 2015
Western analysts and rebels suggest Russia's intervention is not going well.(VOA) Of course RT would apply the dand description to American efforts. My own view is that both are right. Neither effort is going well.
posted by humanfont at 5:03 AM on November 5, 2015
posted by humanfont at 5:03 AM on November 5, 2015
U.S. Spies Root for an ISIS-Russia War
posted by the man of twists and turns at 4:38 PM on November 11, 2015
posted by the man of twists and turns at 4:38 PM on November 11, 2015
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He makes W look like a piker.
posted by Ironmouth at 4:08 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]