The Good Nixon vs The Bad Cuomo

August 29, 2018 1:39 PM

Governor Cuomo debates primary challenger Cynthia Nixon tonight at 7pm EST. How to watch the Cuomo-Nixon debate. What to look for in the first and only Cuomo-NIxon debate. Maybe they'll ask about the $25,000 donation Cuomo received from the same lawyers who paid off Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance in the Weinstein case just days before dropping the probe into, uh, the Weinstein case.
posted by schadenfrau (335 comments total)

Incidentally, bullshit like this is why I want Cynthia Nixon to put the fear of God into every establishment Dem in NYS, starting and ending, just for good measure, with Chuck fucking Schumer.

Like, I want to primary him no matter what, but I'd love for him to be scared leftward in the meantime.

But no pressure.

ETA: all credit for the Harry Reid's pissed off staffer/Schumer being Schumer link to tonycpsu in the USpolitics megathread.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:49 PM on August 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

This is the first time anyone has cheered for a Nixon in like 50+ years.
posted by GuyZero at 2:02 PM on August 29, 2018 [21 favorites]

No statewide office in New York should be occupied a below-replacement-level Democrat. Of course there are conservative House districts, so you're going to get some early-career Gillibrand types who have to navigate the expectations of their constituents, but if you're accountable to the entire population of the state, then you need to push the envelope of Democratic orthodoxy at least as much as the median New York voter would want you to.

Cuomo is a stain on the Democratic party, and needs to go. Cynthia Nixon seems to be a fiercely intelligent and knowledgeable candidate who better represents the average New York voter. If you can't take a chance on new blood in New York, then we may as well just make these seats lifetime appointments.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:06 PM on August 29, 2018 [21 favorites]

This is the first time anyone has cheered for a Nixon in like 50+ years.

Jay Nixon wasn't bad.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:14 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Maybe I don't know New York democrats well but I'm surprised at how little traction Nixon seems to have gotten so far.
posted by octothorpe at 2:14 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

The Good Nixon vs The Bad Cuomo

Ok, but who's the good Cuomo?
posted by lollymccatburglar at 2:15 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Mario?
posted by octothorpe at 2:15 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Perry
posted by neroli at 2:17 PM on August 29, 2018 [27 favorites]

Margaret.

I would also accept Rivers, save for the fact that he hasn't put out a good record since Pinkerton.
posted by SansPoint at 2:19 PM on August 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

This is the first time anyone has cheered for a Nixon in like 50+ years.

Don't forget Skid Roper!
posted by JamesBay at 2:21 PM on August 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

Maybe I don't know New York democrats well but I'm surprised at how little traction Nixon seems to have gotten so far.

Honestly, I'm surprised by this too. Even weirder, she does much better upstate, where Cuomo is rightfully reviled as the duplicitous, ghoulish lizard monster that he is.

I don't know what that's about, except that perhaps the Cuomo machine is particularly powerful in the city, or who pollsters are reaching. Honestly I find it confounding, but I'm sure there are MeFites who know way more about city politics who can enlighten us.

I will say, though, that a hidden issue might be Nixon herself. When I've seen her live, she has not seemed ready. This might be because Cuomo has scared away most NY Dem operatives, so she's got the B team? I have no idea. But I'm gonna be on edge tonight.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:21 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

The arguments among New York City folks I've seen are a combination of "But Cuomo has experience," and "Nixon's just a Liberal Trump." Both of which are bullshit, says this New York City dweller.
posted by SansPoint at 2:22 PM on August 29, 2018

My only contribution: The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Cuomo. Another point in the "HRC is a club for guys in suits" column.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 2:26 PM on August 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

Oooh another question for anyone who might be plugged in to NY politics: why the hell did Cuomo agree to debate her in the first place?
posted by schadenfrau at 2:32 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Cuomo vs. Nixon Debate? It’s Already Heated (Literally) (Shane Goldmacher for New York Times, Aug. 28, 2018)

Back in May, Ms. Nixon challenged Mr. Cuomo to multiple debates but Mr. Cuomo has agreed to just this one encounter, with barely two weeks before the primary. “CBS was very frank with us that they really didn’t have a choice — that these were his demands and if they were not acceded to, he wouldn’t show up,” Ms. Nixon said this month.

Not a lot of why he agreed, but given the challenge was multiple debates, the counter of "OK, how about one, and two weeks before the primary?" seems like a power move response. Also:

Ms. Nixon’s team has publicly accused the debate host, WCBS-TV, of catering to all of the governor’s demands to land the debate, and they are concerned that the debate hall at Hofstra University on Long Island might feel like an ice rink when they arrive. (Mr. Cuomo is famous for preferring to make his public appearances in deeply chilled conditions [NYT].)

So in a pre-emptive strike, Rebecca Katz, a top strategist for Ms. Nixon, asked WCBS-TV in an email last week that the debate hall be warmed to 76 degrees.

Ms. Katz wrote that working conditions are “notoriously sexist when it comes to room temperature, so we just want to make sure we’re all on the same page here,” according to a copy of her email obtained by The New York Times.

Ms. Katz said on Tuesday she had yet to hear back from WCBS-TV, and that 76 degrees was just an opening offer to ensure the temperatures were not uncomfortably cold [NYT]. The Cuomo campaign said it was unaware of what temperature the room would be. The station declined to comment.

Building temperature and (possible) sexism discussed previously.
posted by filthy light thief at 2:49 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

He refused to debate his primary challenger last time (Zephyr Teachout, current AG primary candidate). This time it took him three months between the challenge and the agreement. I assume there's just a threshold of "is it riskier to refuse and look like a dick, or to agree and possibly do poorly?" and the months of pressure and modest momentum finally flipped the switch.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:55 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Fingers crossed 76 degrees makes him sweat like the bad Nixon.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:56 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

The experience thing came up in the AG debates Where it was pointed out being a law professor is less of a mark against you than a New York politician (Teachout has endorsements from the NYT and the NYDN). The dem machine here is just so powerful, the governor can hold the big unions hostage and is seemingly Teflon coated when it comes to scandal.

I can’t in good conscious vote for Cuomo, so at the very least I hope the results put The Fear into him and maybe inspire someone who would’ve been fearful of going against the machine and getting crushed.

Plus, we have a slate, a slate! of voting opptunities this primary day, up to and including the NO IDC folk to want to drive out the Democrats in name only from thier grip on the legislature. Getting the whole ball of wax is slim, but we again live in an age of signs and wonders.
posted by The Whelk at 2:57 PM on August 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

This is the first time anyone has cheered for a Nixon in like 50+ years.

Mojo.
posted by Shepherd at 3:13 PM on August 29, 2018 [23 favorites]

Marni.
posted by kyrademon at 3:16 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Mojo

Yeah, guys, thanks for getting "Punk Rock Girl" stuck in my head.

I'm glad Nixon is running to push Cuomo left, and I really don't like him at all, but I am not voting for someone with essentially no political or administrative experience to be governor of this state. I just can't do it. It's been painful enough watching deBlasio be hustled by developers all over town.
posted by praemunire at 3:16 PM on August 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Mojo Nixon has a great cover of "This Land Is Your Land," as it happens.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:20 PM on August 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

Mojo Nixon > Rivers Cuomo
posted by SansPoint at 3:26 PM on August 29, 2018 [20 favorites]

A Few Questions For Cynthia Nixon Before Tonight's Debate
posted by Capt. Renault at 3:30 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Lol BdB was NOT inexperienced
posted by schadenfrau at 3:31 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

NYT has their article about the debate up here. I didn't realize it was being pretaped.
posted by melissasaurus at 3:32 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

The dem machine here is just so powerful, the governor can hold the big unions hostage and is seemingly Teflon coated when it comes to scandal.

Yeah, my union endorsed him. I was mad as hell, but on the other hand Cuomo is vindictive, petty narcissist. Alienating him is a big risk.

It's been painful enough watching deBlasio be hustled by developers all over town.

Inexperience is not why deBlasio has turned out to be a terrible mayor.
posted by Mavri at 3:33 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

If you can't take a chance on new blood in New York, then we may as well just make these seats lifetime appointments.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:06 PM on August 29 [6 favorites +] [!]

Postcards to Voters is trying to help with this. We're working on Rachel May right now, and have finished GOTV postcards for Zellnor Myrie, Julie Goldberg, and Alessandra Biaggi.
posted by joannemerriam at 3:57 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Yeah it became remarkly clear BdB wanted to be hustled by developers.
posted by The Whelk at 4:01 PM on August 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

@CynthiaNixon:

.@AndrewGillum just won his primary for governor of Florida! Experts said it was impossible. The polls had him at just 16%. We're proving, that if progressives come together, we can win. Now, it is New York's turn. Donate to keep our momentum going

Not to be all That Guy, but nobody said Gillum couldn't win the nomination in Florida, certainly no "expert." His win was considered unlikely, but definitely not impossible. I wouldn't even say it was shocking.

I know all is fair in campaigning, but she could just as easily have said, "Andrew Gillum proved that progressives can win! Let's do it in New York!" or something. You can inspire while not making stuff up.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:05 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

That is a level of political nit-picking that I for one would be happy never to see again. Criticizing a slight stretching of the truth in a campaign tweet? Ain't nobody got time for that.

• Where does she stand on the issues?
• Does she seem up to the task?
• Does she appear to be ludicrously corrupt?

Those are the things I care about.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 4:10 PM on August 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

Yo she is coming out SWINGING and I like it
posted by schadenfrau at 4:11 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

And he’s rattled and I like that even more

SWEAT MOTHERFUCKER SWEAT
posted by schadenfrau at 4:11 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Lots of hissing when Coumo makes the big rhetoric points, lots of nodding when Nixon brings up specific plans he didn’t enact
posted by The Whelk at 4:12 PM on August 29, 2018

Ain't nobody got time for that.

I have time for it. It's just as easy to tell the truth.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:15 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Cuomo: “Can you stop interrupting?”
Nixon: “Can you stop lying?”

Lol she’s fucking him up

And he’s getting bogged down in a fight about the MTA — and she just turned it around to the IDC

She’s seriously fucking him uppppp
posted by schadenfrau at 4:18 PM on August 29, 2018 [30 favorites]

I’m out and can’t watch the debate tonight so I’m loving the live commenting. Keep it up!
posted by SansPoint at 4:19 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

God Coumo wants to debate Donald trump so much and wants to be president so bad and he’s just coming off as dismissive and smug.
posted by The Whelk at 4:22 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Cuomo seems to be trying really hard to emphasize how much better he is than Trump. I mean dude, that bar is pretty fucking low. Also, you're debating Nixon, maybe focus on that.
posted by Fizz at 4:23 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

@DavidKilon “this debate rules they hate themselves so much”

He keeps losing the moderators and they have to tell the audience to calm down a lot
posted by The Whelk at 4:23 PM on August 29, 2018

I cannot wait to see the memes that come out of this

Cynthia knows what she’s doing
posted by schadenfrau at 4:29 PM on August 29, 2018

Cuomo: Trump is bad I am tough I will stop Trump (please forget that I used to run the law firm that represented him)
Also Cuomo: Rudy Giuliani, what a guy!
posted by enn at 4:30 PM on August 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Cuomo seems really unhinged. Wow, this is a nasty debate. I do appreciate how cool Nixon is being, she is interrupting him a fair bit, I'd say let him hang himself with his own words, but then again, he is lying a shit ton. So maybe interrupting is the only option.
posted by Fizz at 4:30 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Name dropped the Oakland model, where mainjuana legalization comes with prefernal licensing for people who’ve been imprisoned for marijuana charges and commutes all the sentences.
posted by The Whelk at 4:31 PM on August 29, 2018 [15 favorites]

The general feeling from twitter “Cuomo keeps blaming the lack of progressive legislation on the Legislature. Nixon keeps reminding him that he empowered the IDC, keeping Republicans in control of the Senate.”
posted by The Whelk at 4:35 PM on August 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

Yeah, Politics Twitter thinks she's doing quite well.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:37 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

Cuomo sounds so much like Trump it's hard to tell them apart if you aren't looking at them.
posted by zerolives at 4:40 PM on August 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

(Leftist activist twitter thinks it’s a bit milktoast)
posted by The Whelk at 4:40 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

She is crushing him. I hate him so much.
posted by melissasaurus at 4:42 PM on August 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

@JordanUhl [Video]: Absolutely painful back-and-forth between Cuomo & Nixon here. Cuomo tries to accuse Nixon of being "a corporation" and donating as "a corporation" to get special favors in NYC. The "favor"? She requested no helicopters above "Shakespeare in the Park" so people could hear.

Cuomo: Are you a corporation?
Nixon: I am a person.

It's a pretty astonishing clip.
posted by zachlipton at 4:42 PM on August 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

This debate is making me glad I no longer live in New York tbh
posted by Automocar at 4:44 PM on August 29, 2018

Sure, but leftist activist Twitter would think anything short of Nixon shouting, "All power to the soviets! Land, Peace, Bread!" is milquetoast.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:47 PM on August 29, 2018 [30 favorites]

the absolute best way to get the true measure of a man, literally any man, is to have him publicly challenged by a confident woman.
posted by poffin boffin at 4:48 PM on August 29, 2018 [100 favorites]

It was mostly about real estate money not being mentioned in finance reform, which is a big elephant in the room.


But Coumo just said teachers shouldn’t be allowed to strike after Nixon brought uo the inspiring wildcat teacher strikes and then brought it back to defying Trump
posted by The Whelk at 4:49 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

She crushed the public sector work stoppage question like Aaron Judge crushes fastballs.

(when healthy)
posted by tonycpsu at 4:49 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

I cannot begin to describe the energy in this bar

She is destroying him and it is fucking amazing
posted by schadenfrau at 4:50 PM on August 29, 2018 [14 favorites]

She clearly came prepared.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:52 PM on August 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Oh she just mentioned the major donors to him are big slumlord real estate money.

A nice cry for universal rent control.
posted by The Whelk at 4:53 PM on August 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

Why on earth has she not brought up the Weinstein donation?
posted by enn at 4:53 PM on August 29, 2018

Well the moderators haven’t yet and she’s alReady got him on the ropes
posted by schadenfrau at 4:54 PM on August 29, 2018

It would have been perfect for the corruption question.
posted by enn at 4:55 PM on August 29, 2018

The salary question was so stupid.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:58 PM on August 29, 2018

Tripped on it , should’ve said public servants deserve good pay but her taxes should go up, but it was the only really bad answer she gave.

Also haaaaa neither of them want BdB’s support and she dug st him for “rhetorical progressivism”
posted by The Whelk at 5:00 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

"A chicken in every pot? How about an extra 9/10 of one cent per year for every New Yorker because I made a bunch of money on HBO." How was she not prepared for that question?
posted by tonycpsu at 5:06 PM on August 29, 2018

This might be because Cuomo has scared away most NY Dem operatives, so she's got the B team?

The last two years of watching GOP trip on themselves when their competent middle management noped the fuck out has made me very alert to the effect of competent staffers on how politicians present themselves, speechify, and appear. I’d bet you’re exactly right - experienced NYC Dem operatives don’t want to risk their careers on this campaign.
posted by corb at 5:07 PM on August 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

... which says as much about the DNC, and who it attracts, as anything.
posted by zerolives at 5:13 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Maybe I don't know New York democrats well but I'm surprised at how little traction Nixon seems to have gotten so far.

Honestly, I'm surprised by this too.

Never underestimate the power of misogyny. Never underestimate rank-and-file Democrats' proclivity for pretending they're not influenced by misogyny.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 5:50 PM on August 29, 2018 [46 favorites]

Nice followuo tweet “Here's what we didn't get to talk about tonight:

❌ Education
❌ Jobs
❌ Upstate
❌ Bail reform
❌ Climate change
❌ Voting rights
❌ Sexual harassment

Learn more about my platform: cynthiafornewyork.com/issues/”
posted by The Whelk at 6:20 PM on August 29, 2018 [15 favorites]

Terrible questions and terrible moderators who let both candidates suck up valuable time with pointless bickering. Nixon won in terms of presentation and getting some personal attacks in, but I don't think the debate was very useful in terms of differentiating the candidates for anyone who's on the fence.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:27 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I thought the questions were decent! I would say this debate brought me from "I support her platform but I hope she actually has the chops" to "YAS BITCH FUCK HIM UP!!" And her subway funding answers (my particular hobby horse) were perfectly on point and meticulously researched.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:58 PM on August 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

... which says as much about the DNC, and who it attracts, as anything.

Reminder that the DNC is an actual thing, not just a metonym for "the Democratic establishment."
posted by Chrysostom at 7:04 PM on August 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

I think Nixon's list of topics that didn't get covered says all that needs to be said about how bad the questions were. But they found time to let the candidates bicker for like 5 minutes about the Tappan Zee naming thing and to ask Nixon if she'd forego her salary, as if that matters to anyone.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:08 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

We Watched the Cuomo-Nixon Debate So You Don’t Have To

“DC: Holy shit, why are you starting with Trump and infrastructure? I fuckin’ hate this guy. And then he said this is really about the New York City Transit Company. Holy shit we are doomed. Aaron, we’re doomed.

AC: Cuomo just talked for a whole minute and didn’t answer either of the questions. The moderator had to ask it again. “I would consider canceling the fare hike because the service is not what people deserve.””
posted by The Whelk at 7:08 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Nixon won in terms of presentation and getting some personal attacks in, but I don't think the debate was very useful in terms of differentiating the candidates for anyone who's on the fence.

I think this is true for nerds (which I say lovingly, as a nerd).

I think for non-nerds? She fucking crushed him.

What will really matter is how it’s covered in the media, because most people don’t watch debates, they just go with whatever people tell them the consensus is. If the NY media wants a fun story and was watching the same debate I watched, the story should be Miranda crushes toxic bachelor. Seriously, she had the only quotable lines, and the only worthy screenshots. Let’s see if her media team capitalizes on it.

Btw? If you’re on the fence, think about this: do you want someone of limited experience who actually cares to fight for the things you care about, or do you want someone with eight years experience of fighting against the things you care about so he can maybe run for President one day?

And FWIW: Andrew Cuomo will never win the democratic nomination for president. He’s dead in the water. He’s a fucking ghoul.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:17 PM on August 29, 2018 [28 favorites]

I have no idea where he gets this idea he’s not dead in the water as a preddeintal candidate? Like three terms as govantor in a state system that was carefully constructed to hand it to him is realistically way way more then he could’ve asked for,
posted by The Whelk at 7:31 PM on August 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Yeah it’s legitimately delusional, especially given the last two years. He’s hated in NY. The idea that he wouldn’t evaporate in a cloud of vampire dust after a second of national scrutiny is laughable.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:39 PM on August 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Reading this thread makes me glad I live in Ohio, wow. I feel bad for those in Western New York, all state politics seem to be New York city based.
posted by greatalleycat at 7:40 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I mean, for this election, that’s partially a consequence of Cuomo’s fuckery. He’s so reviled outside of NYC that I’m pretty sure a literal bag of shit would beat him if NYC wasn’t part of the election. He’s effectively made non-NYC New York residents irrelevant, which, for NYC-New Yorkers, is weirdly refreshing.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:43 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

All state politics in NY should be downstate-based; two-thirds of the people live in Westchester through Suffolk. Every fuckin' day, I am thankful that this is the case, instead of leaving WNY to be Ohio Junior and follow suit with its dreary parade of Republican fuckwits. Every fuckin' day, I am thankful for the resources that flow out of downstate to the people here.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:47 PM on August 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

I mean, also that, but people upstate get PISSED if you say it.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:48 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I live in greater Buffalo and love when people say it! I say it!
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:49 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Another Ohioan here who is confused/fascinated by New York politics. I'm a little confused by this:

He’s so reviled outside of NYC that I’m pretty sure a literal bag of shit would beat him if NYC wasn’t part of the election.

Isn't part of Cuomo's baggage his refusal to do anything about the NYC subway system (which I'm still confused about how that is a state issue but that's another thread, probably)? If subway users in NYC hate him and everyone outside of NYC hates him, is his only constituency Wall Street? Who are the voting blocs that keep electing him?
posted by mostly vowels at 8:11 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I mean, I’m super confused by this too. I’m going by the polling, but I think what we’re all learning is that polling in heavy machine states is only useful when no one gives a shit. In a year when people are fired up? Who knows.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:26 PM on August 29, 2018

The NYC subway is part of the MTA, which is the statewide public transit system. Cuomo and de Blasio both nominate board members, but the governor nominates more. In addition, Cuomo and the state legislature have inadequately funded the subway for years. (The city also funds the subway, but can't fund all of it.) The NYC subway does not receive a proportionate share of state funds for its ridership as compared to the rest of the MTA. The state has also directed funding toward Cuomo vanity projects instead of boring infrastructure. All this is confusing and Cuomo has diligently and persistently lied about it. A lot of people probably don't know who is really to blame.

I have no idea who his voting blocs are, aside from Wall Steet and real estate. Incumbent bias and machine politics are a huge part of it. Cuomo knows how to work the system. I don't know why Nixon isn't doing better. Misogyny. And concerns about experience?
posted by Mavri at 8:29 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

And concerns about experience?

Yeah, it’s not like she’s been twiddling her thumbs. She’s been an activist for 17 years. If she was a man she’s be a brave independent maverick or whatever.

It’s also misogyny.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:36 PM on August 29, 2018 [28 favorites]

Oh, I agree. And Cuomo's experience only benefits himself and his benefactors. I just can't think of any other reasons why she'd be polling so badly. Misogyny, the machine, and her alleged lack of experience.

I have a friend who is rabidly centrist, and she justifies her Cuomo support as a backstop against losing the governorship to a Republican. So I guess there's that.
posted by Mavri at 8:49 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I just can't think of any other reasons why she'd be polling so badly

Maybe it's just not worth buying in the Buffalo market, but I haven't seen a peep out of her. Absolute crickets. I would not be shocked if many people polled had only the vaguest idea that she existed. No tv ads from Cuomo but plenty of online shit.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:54 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Cuomo just talked for a whole minute and didn’t answer either of the questions. The moderator had to ask it again.

Man, I wish candidates got called out more often for not answering the question.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:54 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Also, FWIW, the bar I was at was PACKED. Like standing room only, full of young people all cheering. The kitchen stopped taking orders because they were overwhelmed. And it’s a pretty big place.

And there were a number of watch parties across the city. I don’t even know if that was an official one.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:43 PM on August 29, 2018

I think honestly the problem we are seeing play out with Cuomo and Nixon is - like New York is So. Fucking. Corrupt. It is corrupt on a scale I couldn’t even realize until I moved away from it and was like, shocked when I saw a cop pay for his lunch. It is corrupt from top to fucking bottom - literally everyone who is involved with politics is either personally corrupt on some scale or they have seen corruption and decided not to fight against it. Cops get “get out of legal trouble free” cards every year to hand to their friends and family. The people who are supposed to be enforcing the law have decided from the get go it doesn’t apply to certain people. And it only goes on from there.

Unfortunately this means there’s no one in politics in NYC who’s both experienced and clean. You can’t take the experience without the dirt. Somebody’s always getting something.

And so your choice is between people with no experience who don’t know how to govern, who are going to choose staffers who don’t know how to govern, but at least they’re probably not dirty, or fucking corrupt ass people who are awesome at their job.

And that’s a shitty choice. That’s a really shitty choice. People aren’t wrong in saying Nixon is another celebrity who’s not a career politician who would have difficulty governing. But there isn’t a better choice out there if you don’t want the super corrupt dude.

Tl;dr New York politics needs to be cleansed with holy fire.
posted by corb at 9:54 PM on August 29, 2018 [30 favorites]

The corruption is why I'm surprised Cuomo thinks he could possibly be elected president. To be a NY dealmaker means there must be so much dirt on you that your dirt has dirt on it. We already know he's dirty. That Cuomo can't see this speaks to his arrogance and hubris. I would hope that if he did run, the takedown would be quick during the primaries rather than too late as the party nominee. That said, go Nixon! I'll take her inexperience as an elected politician over his attitude any day.
posted by kokaku at 10:31 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

Well, it worked out for former New York governors Martin Van Buren, Grover Cleveland, Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:41 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Oh god Cuomo is so awful. I hate him. You can do better, New York. Why can't the second-largest blue state in the country elect somebody who doesn't suck?

I liked Spitzer a lot. Too bad about, uh, the hookers.
posted by Justinian at 10:48 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

I have no idea who his voting blocs are, aside from Wall Steet and real estate.

Securing the unions ensures a pretty solid base and I'm told there are old people who liked his dad and vote on name recognition,* but it doesn't take a huge amount to win in New York because turnout is so low. It was less than 10% for his Democratic primary against Teachout in 2014. This time it might be even lower because it will be on a Thursday... although maybe more because people are fired up overTrump (but turnout at this year's Congressional primaries was woeful, even the much hyped Ocasio Cortez-Crowely election only had a turnout of around 11%, so...)

* He has also done some things people really like -- $15 minimum wage, gun laws, marriage equality
posted by retrograde at 10:50 PM on August 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

Well, it worked out for former New York governors Martin Van Buren, Grover Cleveland, Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt.

I'd like to say that we live in a very different media environment. However, look who's president. But since it only matters when it's a Democrat, my first point still applies. Cuomo would be shredded.
posted by kokaku at 10:58 PM on August 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Sure, I was mostly being a smart-ass.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:01 PM on August 29, 2018

do you want someone of limited experience who actually cares to fight for the things you care about, or do you want someone with eight years experience of fighting against the things you care about so he can maybe run for President one day?

I feel that people do not always appreciate how much jobs in the executive branch are about more than just Having the Right Opinions, or even Being Able To Pull The Levers of Power. These are high-level management jobs--the governor of NY is the boss of more than half a million state employees, supplying vital services across a huge range of fields to NYers. People whose strength is Having the Right Opinions and are significantly lacking in the other areas have a good chance of being good judges (if they're lawyers), they may turn out to be pretty good senators, too, but the executive branch is just a different type of job.

It’s also misogyny.

w/e, I wouldn't vote for Bono for this kind of job, either, and he's been an activist for far longer.
posted by praemunire at 11:11 PM on August 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Sounding like managerial class technocrats has definitely been a successful strategy for Democrats.
posted by Space Coyote at 1:43 AM on August 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

I find it frustrating when people express confusion as to why Cuomo is polling better than Nixon, as if the only reasons anyone would support Cuomo aren't good enough. I get the impression that Nixon is very popular among college-educated white millennials. So if that's your social circle, then maybe that's why it's so hard to attribute valid reasons for people's support of Cuomo. But obviously, that's not really representative of the voting population.

I was also at a watch party that was standing room and packed and super enthusiastic about Nixon. But the vibe there felt very uncomfortable, and I say this as someone who will probably vote for Nixon. I'm not exactly sure why yet, but I think it has to do with the fact that it feels like some people are about as anti-Cuomo as they are anti-Trump. In any case, the demographics of the people attending the party do not match at all the demographics of Democrats in New York, so it's hard to extrapolate I think.
posted by chernoffhoeffding at 4:05 AM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

Even taking it as a given that the governorship is a management job requiring technical management skills (in fact, I suspect civil service employees do the bulk of the managing), it has certainly not been my experience in my own life and work that the most effective managers are those who have been managing the most people for the greatest number of years. And at this point the evidence seems pretty strong that Cuomo is spectacularly ineffective as a manager.
posted by enn at 5:12 AM on August 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

Andrew Cuomo isn't a leader. Andrew Cuomo is less than his dad. His dad was smart enough to never want to be President.
posted by mikelieman at 6:03 AM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

I especially liked the mudslinging ads immediately before and after the debate from the Cuomo camp.
posted by Grither at 6:08 AM on August 30, 2018

And at this point the evidence seems pretty strong that Cuomo is spectacularly ineffective as a manager.

Agreed. Cuomo is also an arrogant, elitist and condescending jerk. NYS politics is a fucking cesspool but I was astonished how he managed to get the budget in on time and wondered what kind of dirt he might have on people (or they on him) or what kind of pay to play promises were made in the room with four people who decide the budget in NYS (it really is a cesspool).

Nixon was impressive but she comes across as playing to NYC and does not convey a lot of understanding about the very real, systemic problems in upstate. There is very little movement about her candidacy at least in my little corner of upstate NY and I'm not sure if this is a strategy or the campaign is not well organized.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:11 AM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

Also, what bars were y'all at? I went to the Grafton in the East Village. Not too crazy/packed, but they had tasty homemade bread.
posted by Grither at 6:14 AM on August 30, 2018

I'm upstate NY and Nixon through and through. Cuomo's many faults have already been deliniated here, but I would like to add that he has contributed to the warping of NY state politics. Far from just being a creature of it (and dirtied by association), he's furthered that corruption, that swindling, that kneecapping of progressive and socialist causes. He's deforming both NY and the NY Democratic Party, and just because a Republican would be worse doesn't mean I have to forgive the damage he's doing.

Most politicians are a balance between public service and selfishness, though the line is often unclear and "public service" can mean delivering only to a select group. Cuomo has no service beyond self, his ambitions being paramount. He would become a Republican in a heartbeat if it could further them an inch.

In the debate, he constantly wanted to debate Trump (in part because Trump is such a low bar), but he acts Trump-like. People complain about Cynthia Nixon, but Andrew Cuomo is why Nixon is our last, best hope.

Although the chances are slight, imagine what type of meltdown Cuomo would have if he lost to a socialist actress from HBO.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 6:34 AM on August 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

I think one of the reasons Nixon isn't polling better is that her campaign is dead broke compared with Cuomo's, as will happen when you're up against an opponent who is in the pocket of real estate interests and just took a payout from Harvey Weinstein's lawyers. Every day, for the past few weeks, I have been greeted by Cuomo ads in my mailbox and Facebook and Twitter feeds. Nixon doesn't have as much money for ad buys, which makes it difficult for her to get her platform out there.

More debates, earlier on, would definitely have helped, which is almost certainly why Cuomo avoided that.

As goes unions, my union left Working Families earlier this year solely because Cuomo demanded it. They supposedly did so because they needed Cuomo's support in a contract negotiation. I am kind of pissed about it, but I am trying to channel my anger at the man who would hold fair wages hostage for political purposes.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 6:35 AM on August 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Well, it worked out for former New York governors Martin Van Buren, Grover Cleveland, Teddy Roosevelt and Franklin Roosevelt.

Weirdly, all four of those guys kept on running for President well after a normal person would’ve quit.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 6:45 AM on August 30, 2018

It’s also misogyny.

w/e, I wouldn't vote for Bono for this kind of job, either, and he's been an activist for far longer.

He's also never run for this kind of job (or... anything, that I recall), but, to coin a phrase, "w/e".
posted by Etrigan at 6:49 AM on August 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

I'm not sure if this is a strategy or the campaign is not well organized.

Cuomo is know for being vindictive and vicious, and he has deliberately tried to and largely succeeded in making NY a thoroughly corrupt machine state. The commenters above are correct — it’s the fucking corruption. Like, Cuomo’s experience isn’t as a skilled manager, it’s in the corrupt acquisition of power. That is the exact opposite kind of experience we want.

He isn’t some sort of well-meaning moderate with some flaws. He’s actively broken the state in ways that should be criminally investigated and prosecuted.

He’s a fucking criminal. That’s how he’s most like trump. Not just the braggadocio or the misogyny or the chauvinism. It’s the corruption.

Which is why Cynthia Nixon is the only kind of candidate who could run. And she might drown in the swamp Cuomo created if she wins, but it would be still be better than a gas lighting criminal continuing to treat the state like his little kleptocracy.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:58 AM on August 30, 2018 [17 favorites]

Oh and duh — yeah her campaign doesn’t seem well organized, and I think it’s because no one with experience in NYS politics wants to be blacklisted by Cuomo’s machine.

Anyway. I’ll go canvas for her.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:59 AM on August 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

I feel that people do not always appreciate how much jobs in the executive branch are about more than just Having the Right Opinions, or even Being Able To Pull The Levers of Power. These are high-level management jobs--the governor of NY is the boss of more than half a million state employees, supplying vital services across a huge range of fields to NYers.

Nixon can hire consultants to help her with administration tasks, but Cuomo isn't about to hire consultants to have a surrogate sense of social responsibility for him.

Cuomo did say one totally on-point thing last night - New York State SHOULD be one of the guiding lights of the left in this country. But in his eight years as governor so far, he hasn't shown a hell of a lot of interest in making that happen. So why should I carry water for him now? Why should I want his expert hands on the levers of power if he's expertly pulling them against my interests?
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:25 AM on August 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Also I tend the view Nixon as part of a larger slate of candidates running primary challenges this year that, if mostly elected, could start to undo the damage Cuomo has done ( and validate that anything good he’s done has been due to immense pressure from the left.)
posted by The Whelk at 8:39 AM on August 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

Cuomo’s experience isn’t as a skilled manager, it’s in the corrupt acquisition of power. That is the exact opposite kind of experience we want

It's - complicated. Cuomo's experience is primarily in the acquisition and exercise of power. Sometimes that power can be and has been used for New York State interests. Sometimes it's used for personal interests. Sometimes it's used for union interests, to pay back the unions who made his machine.

Some people who are supporting Cuomo likely think that the machine can't be dismantled - that the corruption can never be wholly gone. People have tried to clean up the corruption, and gotten destroyed for it, or been ineffective. And so if you think that this is the eternal state of things, you're often going to want someone who can work those levers - who is definitely Cuomo.

As for me, I stand by the 'burn it all down' proposition.
posted by corb at 9:12 AM on August 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

ny politics are weird bc like. they seem kind of normal until, as mentioned above, you simply live somewhere else, and then you're like OH MY GOD WAIT. like the vase picture suddenly becoming the 2 faces except the 2 faces are the mob and the nypd.
posted by poffin boffin at 9:14 AM on August 30, 2018 [20 favorites]

Credit to ZeusHmms in the US politics thread for this link to Vox’s explainer of how polling missed Gillum’s surprise victory in Florida’s primary.

Maybe the writers are just really clumsy at foreshadowing!
posted by schadenfrau at 9:31 AM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

Isn't it funny how polling misses the same people the system does.
posted by rhizome at 12:04 PM on August 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

Although the chances are slight, imagine what type of meltdown Cuomo would have if he lost to a socialist actress from HBO.

and imagine my delight if this socialist, feminist actress won!
posted by bluesky43 at 1:28 PM on August 30, 2018

New York is So. Fucking. Corrupt.
...which is why I'm really surprised that any prosecutors from New York are taking ANY action against the Trump Network. And totally unsurprised that one of New York's 'greatest prosecutors' (Giuliani) is defending him (poorly). But then, I became aware of Giuliani when he made his name going after Michael Milken, who, while he committed some crimes, his greatest crime was building a major investment market in Los Angeles.
posted by oneswellfoop at 5:26 PM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

which is why I'm really surprised that any prosecutors from New York are taking ANY action against the Trump Network

To be fair, we're three layers of prosecutors in, after Schneiderman and I'm pretty sure someone else. The initial investigations are ablative, and it could just be that the prosecutors who took over hadn't become known enough to be reached by corruption yet.
posted by rhizome at 7:13 PM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

I probably couldn't ever support a candidate who supports "universal rent control." In general, I don't want someone who is looking to attack finance and real estate -- high among the industries that New York City's economy depends on. She also wants to end all prosecution of minors as adults and all arrests for "low level offenses" -- I don't agree with that. I think that admission to Stuy, Bronx Science, etc., should continue to based on testing alone -- this is a bit of a wedge issue for me. In general I am concerned that Cynthia Nixon would be like a proxy for de Blasio and also in general, I dislike overly idealistic politicians, as well as politicians whose main selling point is being an "outsider."

I probably can't vote for Cuomo either based on the subway situation... I may not vote for a candidate for governor, which I guess is more like a vote for Cuomo

Also, the title of this thread is just slightly inappropriately editorialized imo
posted by knoyers at 7:20 PM on August 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

I think one is permitted to editorialize in FPPs.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:29 PM on August 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

In general, I don't want someone who is looking to attack finance and real estate -- high among the industries that New York City's economy depends on.

New York City has over 60,000 homeless people, including 22,000 children. One third of New Yorkers pay 50% or more of their income for rent. Fraudulent registrations, illegal construction, harassment, and tax fraud happen right out in the open. Landlords would be just fine if they have to be a little less rich. The city and its citizens would be more than fine if landlords were prosecuted for defrauding the city and tenants, and for the brutal, cruel harassment and horrific conditions that go unchecked.
posted by Mavri at 8:17 PM on August 30, 2018 [24 favorites]

I am visiting the US and bought an old-fashioned newsprint version of the New York Times today. In the print, West Coast edition, the debate article on the front page is called "Nixon Blasts Cuomo. He Blasts the President," and the article includes a phrase that stopped me in my tracks (emphasis is mine):

The attacks and contours of the debate echoed some the same tensions that are gripping the Democratic Party nationally in the age of Trump: namely, whether the path back to power and success must be led by seasoned political veterans or to-the-barricades outside agitators.

Outside agitators is a phrase associated with Southern critics of the civil rights movement. Martin Luther King, Jr. was one of the many called an outside agitator and addressed that claim in his Letter from a Birmingham Jail thusly: "Anyone who lives inside the United States can never be considered an outsider anywhere within its bounds."

I was struck by the usage in the NYT because Cynthia Nixon may not be a seasoned Democratic politician but neither is she any kind of an outside agitator. To suggest that she is, and to characterise the struggle within the Democratic party between veteran, mainstream politicians and more progressive Democratic activists is to support the status quo and the powers that be. That seems pretty fucked. Unsurprising but still wrong. In covering Columbia University's anti-union campaign earlier this year, the Columbia Spectator expresses why I found that phrase in the newspaper so inappropriate.

“Outside agitator” talk ... is a way of denying that a certain community can spontaneously generate its own dissent. It is a way of painting dissent itself as sinister and alien. And it comes naturally to those for whom the community is working well—the enfranchised, the well-connected, and the well-compensated. The “outside agitators” story imagines a community unified around a common interest, until a third party sneaks in to spoil things, like a snake in the garden.

I don't know that the journalist who wrote the story is even aware of the history of the term outside agitator. But perhaps that is what happens when the copy editors get laid off.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:50 PM on August 30, 2018 [21 favorites]

Since the vast corruption of NYs keeps coming up, I do wonder if more people should read about the Sewer Socialists* in the Midwest who grabbed and kept power for decades on platforms of infrastructure building (sewers!) and anti corruption campaigns.

*well what we would call social democrats now but a lesson on how anti corruption and anti white color crime campaigns can endear you to the public for a long, long time.
posted by The Whelk at 9:36 AM on September 1, 2018 [1 favorite]

Apropos of nothing I heard someone excitedly talking about the debate on the phone today. They seemed surprised and psyched.

So...if you wanna canvas for Nixon, this is the page on her site.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:39 AM on September 1, 2018

I liked his dad but I don't like him too much.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:57 PM on September 1, 2018

Gillibrand endorses 4 IDC challengers.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:26 PM on September 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Not a surprise, but NYT endorses Cuomo.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:25 PM on September 4, 2018

@vogon

“of all the incredible arguments in this article, "he will have won in part because of egregious abuse of the LLC loophole, and that egregiousness is why we trust him to close it" is uniquely ridiculous”
posted by The Whelk at 1:10 PM on September 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Andrew Cuomo’s government Is For Sale
posted by The Whelk at 4:37 PM on September 4, 2018

Oh good, I've been wanting to buy a state government!
posted by Chrysostom at 5:43 PM on September 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Biphobia, broadly defined, includes asking her campaign about her identity and then putting her preferred term in scare quotes in print.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 8:49 PM on September 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Universal rent control is the hot topic among New York politicians , but what does it mean?
posted by The Whelk at 9:20 AM on September 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Salazar in some weirdo scandal with Keith Hernandez and his ex-wife.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:06 PM on September 6, 2018

I mean, it's weird, but it's only weird because of Florida's sunshine law (or whatever it's called) and Keith Hernandez's ex-wife's drug addiction.

According to the documents, Salazar and her family lived next door to Keith and Kai in Jupiter, Florida. Salazar said she had known Keith since she was a young girl and considered him to be “a father figure.” In June 2010, Keith and Kai were living separately while going through a divorce: Keith “up north” and Kai in the Jupiter home with her new fiancée, Barry Silverman. In July 2010, Kai asked Salazar to house-sit and take care of her dogs for a week. Salazar agreed, but when she entered the house she said she found “drug paraphernalia to include open syringes, guns, and 25 Pottery Barn gift cards totaling $1,175.” Salazar called Keith, then 64, and he told her “to take photos of the objects found and to send him a list of the narcotics.”

After that, Kai appears to lose her paranoid shit, going so far as to accuse Salazar of having an affair with Keith and claiming that Salazar tried to access her bank accounts by phone. She had Salazar freaking arrested. The charges were dropped, and Salazar filed a defamation case, which was settled in her favor. This seems mostly the story of a drug addict using the police to successfully harass a young woman who had the misfortune to be family friends with the woman's ex-husband, and the reporting around it seems kind of like a hit piece.

Like...Julia Salazar is SO YOUNG that her weird young person stupidity is still pretty recent, and if she were running for an executive position, I'd be like "whoa there, young lady." But this does not seem like that. This seems like people who should know better are taking advantage of the fact that Salazar was the victim of harassment and stalking.

So...pretty shitty.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:07 PM on September 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

We saw her on Seth Myers' Wednesday night show and she was quite good. M-s shell initially asked what her qualifications were to run a state government but came away impressed.
posted by M-x shell at 9:53 AM on September 7, 2018

NYT endorses Simcha Felder challenger Blake Morris.

NYT endorsements have been not terrible, overall. Yes, Cuomo. But also Teachout for AG, Morris, Jumaane Williams for LG.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:40 PM on September 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

NYT: 20% of retail space in NYC is vacant
posted by The Whelk at 3:37 PM on September 7, 2018

@ShaneGoldmacher: The New York Democratic Party, in the last week of the campaign, is sending mailers with Cynthia Nixon’s picture and the words “anti-Semitism.”
posted by ragtag at 1:03 AM on September 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

Shades of "vote for Cuomo, not the homo." Well fuck you, I'm going homo over Cuomo this time around.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:12 AM on September 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

Hmmm they sound scared

I wonder what their internal polling looks like
posted by schadenfrau at 7:38 AM on September 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

The New York Democratic Party, in the last week of the campaign, is sending mailers with Cynthia Nixon’s picture and the words “anti-Semitism.”

Looks like the Centrism vs the Left fight in the US is basically following the same beats as the one in the UK, just about a year behind.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:55 AM on September 10, 2018

New Siena poll has Cuomo up 63-22 on Nixon [MOE: +/- 4.3%]

Downballot:

LG: Hochul 43, Williams 21
AG: Maloney 25, James 24, Teachout 18, Eve 3
posted by Chrysostom at 7:38 AM on September 10, 2018 [2 favorites]

Lol, so not they’re not so much scared as they are just...dicks.

Here’s a twitter thread on the cross tabs, which appear to be even worse.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:15 AM on September 10, 2018

My policy is never to say an election result cannot happen, but Nixon is just so, so unlikely to win. That doesn't mean that her campaign wasn't a good thing!

I have a hunch that Teachout is going to pull off AG, but that's all it is, is a hunch.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:49 AM on September 10, 2018 [2 favorites]

This looks like bad news for one of the IDC contingent, but it's a little too inside baseball for this out-of-stater to be sure.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:53 AM on September 10, 2018 [1 favorite]

I’d be interested in learning why Nixon appears to have belly flopped so badly in those crosstabs, but I’m not sure if that’s an answerable question, even for people who are on the ground.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:17 AM on September 10, 2018

I'll almost certainly* vote for her; I work for SUNY and don't particularly like being one of the punching bags Cuomo uses to show middle-aged white men in OH and PA that he's not a [dracula]scaaaaarry liiiiiberaaaaaal[/dracula]. But:

Lots of Democrats don't know hardly anything about her, she doesn't seem to have the money to do anything about that (which is to say that not enough people are interested enough in her candidacy to donate to her), and lots of Democrats seem to not like what she has to say. It would not shock me to learn after the fact that she does best among left-leaning people who aren't registered as Democrats.

That said, likely voter models for primary elections are Hard.

*For a Democratic candidate to be so soundly rejected by black voters makes me a little hesitant
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:36 AM on September 10, 2018 [1 favorite]

For a Democratic candidate to be so soundly rejected by black voters makes me a little hesitant

This is the thing I’ve seen no coverage on whatsoever and would very much like to understand
posted by schadenfrau at 12:03 PM on September 10, 2018 [1 favorite]

This looks like bad news for one of the IDC contingent, but it's a little too inside baseball for this out-of-stater to be sure.

This is my district! I've been canvassed by Alcantara's people I think 4 or 5 times in the past two months (each time being very clear that I'm voting for Jackson because of Alcantara's IDC participation...but they keep showing up anyway); once by Jackson's people. I'd say it's a pretty big deal; people really like Espaillat up here, it's his old seat, and Jackson has already received a number of high-profile endorsements.

Note: this is the only anti-IDC race that Postcards to Voters didn't write for (not sure if that's just because it was the lowest priority of the eight races and we ran out of time or if Jackson's campaign never asked).
posted by melissasaurus at 12:31 PM on September 10, 2018 [1 favorite]

If Cuomo ends up the nominee for Governor, I will pinch my nose as hard as possible and vote for him. Ain't like there's a Republican worth my time.

But for now, Nixon's the one.
posted by SansPoint at 1:17 PM on September 10, 2018 [1 favorite]

On a lark, I just tried to find the number of votes cast in the 2010 New York Democratic gubernatorial primary — say that ten times fast — and that is uh difficult to find.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:30 PM on September 10, 2018

Don't think there was one.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:51 PM on September 10, 2018

Bernie endorses Teachout, Williams, stays out of governor race.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:52 PM on September 10, 2018

Real Estate Tycoon Funds Last-Minute $100,000 Attack on Zephyr Teachout in New York AG Race - Alex Kotch & Josefa Velasquez, Sludge

(h/t Real Estate Mogul Spends $100,000 in Last-Ditch Effort to Beat Zephyr Teachout - Sophie Weiner, Splinter)

New York is home to a massive real estate industry, and the next attorney general is uniquely positioned to prosecute potential bad actors in this arena, which is a breeding ground for corruption in state government and within the Trump administration.

With a president who comes from the world of New York real estate in the White House, the real estate sector is under heightened scrutiny. Federal prosecutors and Congress are now investigating whether foreign interests laundered payments to Trump campaign officials through lucrative real estate deals in New York City.

Teachout, the only candidate who has not received campaign contributions from the Real Estate Board of New York—the tremendously influential trade group that represents developers, building owners and brokers—has made going after bad actors in the real estate sector a cornerstone of her campaign. In an interview with The Nation she pledges “to enforce New York State laws against criminality at the top level in real estate.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 4:53 AM on September 11, 2018

Lol yeah so voter turnout models are essentially a shrug emoji.

There’s this article that describes 17% turnout for a well publicized congressional primary where Trump endorsed one of the candidates as “robust,” while other districts same in at like...literally 9%. Meanwhile NY casts I think like 2 million votes in the 2016 primary?

So now I’m interested to see how those polls hold up. They haven’t really moved at all throughout the entire campaign. Polling stuff like this must be a relative nightmare.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:17 AM on September 11, 2018

Yeah, primary polling is tricky. The separate federal/state primaries in NY plus it not being on a Tuesday this year are also not helpful, I would think. Still, *statewide* primary polling is more accurate than district, and the governor's primary is generating a lot of attention.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 AM on September 11, 2018

On the ground canvassing and reporting makes me think a lot of people haven’t heard of the primary until ....yesterday? It is extremly telling how much real estate money is behind keeping the status quo. If our state laws were actually enforced all these guys would be in jail.
posted by The Whelk at 9:31 AM on September 11, 2018 [9 favorites]

I checked out my ballot and saw that I need to choose two out of four candidates for Kings County Civil Court. Googling all the candidates' names together netted me an utterly pathetic 50 total results, with essentially no information whatsoever about who these fucking people are or why I should or should not vote for any of them. I'm not even sure I can vote in that race at all in good conscience because I would essentially be rolling the dice.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:46 AM on September 11, 2018 [1 favorite]

Cynthia Nixon: Democrats need to be more than a “gentler, more diverse version” of the GOP - Ella Nilsen, Vox

Nixon has been painting Cuomo as a moneyed, corrupt insider who has drained New York schools and infrastructure systems of their money in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy. She is still polling far behind Cuomo, but she might do well enough to ruin his dreams of a presidential bid — or even defeat him in the process.

Nixon calls herself a democratic socialist and wants to prove that the grassroots activism that helped Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez topple House Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley in New York can propel her to the governor’s mansion in Albany. She has embraced adopting Medicare-for-all, funding education, and exposing corruption in New York’s political system.

“We can’t just be a kinder, gentler, more diverse version of the Republican Party — that’s not compelling enough,” Nixon told Vox in a Monday interview. “We’re relying on people’s horror with Trump that they’re going to turn out and vote. We need to give them something to actually come out and vote for, and we need to be a party that is not only addressing but actively fighting inequality.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:06 AM on September 11, 2018 [5 favorites]

Vox article on the Tappan Zee Bridge mini-scandal
posted by Chrysostom at 10:35 AM on September 11, 2018

why I should or should not vote for any of them

When faced with this, I vote for people whose names imply that they're women or not anglos when that's an option.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:37 AM on September 11, 2018 [3 favorites]

Nixed from the big politics thread, but I think everyone needs to see the Cuomomobile. Dude won’t ride the subway but he’ll ride around in this like he’s The Penguin.
posted by Artw at 10:49 AM on September 11, 2018 [2 favorites]

In fairness, the Penguin ran for mayor of Gotham City several times.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:35 AM on September 11, 2018 [4 favorites]

What your bagel order says about you and your fitness to govern (Alexandra Petri, WaPo)

Which bagel order marks you as fit to serve the people of your state as governor, and which correctly casts you into the Outer Darkness for all eternity? What does your order say about you? I have taken the liberty of determining this for you, using science. At any rate I think it is science. It might just be my arbitrary opinion.

Plain Bagel With Cream Cheese: Too afraid to offend anyone to take any interesting stances, you are trapped in a limbo of your own creation where although you will not be disappointed, you will never be truly delighted. You could be an alderman if you wanted.

Plain Bagel With Lox and Capers: The bagel is only a vehicle for your true desire. You are indifferent to the bagel. They could have substituted a sesame bagel for it, and you would not have noticed.

Sesame Bagel With Lox and Capers: They substituted a sesame bagel for it, and you did not notice. You would be an okay vice president or lieutenant governor.

Sesame Bagel With Cream Cheese: You wanted to eat a bagel but also to get seeds all over your hand. You are fit to govern a landlocked nation. […]

Salt Bagel And Some Sort Of Sweet Cream Cheese Like The One With The Raspberry Swirl: Society cannot hope to reach you where you sit enthroned on the bones of those who last attempted to reason with you; you exist on an entirely separate moral plane; you are to be feared, not loved; you are a “Game of Thrones” character.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:48 PM on September 11, 2018 [3 favorites]

@SalazarSenate18: I’m about to be outed as a survivor of sexual assault. Here is what I have to say about that:

[screencap] I've been informed that a story is about ot run which identifies me as a victim of sexual assault.

Before this runs, I want ot come forward and confirm that I was a victim of sexual assault by David Keyes - the Prime Minister of Israel's spokesperson to foreign media. This story appears to be an effort to cast doubt upon my, and other women's, accusations against Keyes. I've spoken to other journalists who were investigating accusations against David Keyes on background about this experience, but have never spoken on the record about it until now. There's a reason women don't often come forward after a traumatic experience - because of the triggering and vicious responses that follow. I strongly believe sexual assault survivors should not be outed in this way, and am saddened by the effect this story may have on other women.

posted by melissasaurus at 2:38 PM on September 11, 2018 [8 favorites]

Jesus fucking Christ, two days before the primary. If her opponent had anything to do with the story I’m gonna suggest pitchforks and torches.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:49 PM on September 11, 2018 [5 favorites]

Andrew Bard Epstein:

Regardless of what you believe about the underlying claims, it's been clear for weeks that the intensely negative, often salacious reporting on Julia Salazar has been driven by a coterie of very pro-Israel media figures. Now we know why.

I'd assumed it was chiefly self-motivated by people who work to police the bounds of acceptable discourse on Israel/Palestine and are deeply worried about progressive Jewish apathy/antipathy towards Zionism.

Now it seems entirely likely that at least some of the relentlessly negative coverage has been pushed by a spokesperson for a war criminal who must be concerned about the growing prominence of someone he sexually assaulted.

To be clear, Keyes isn't just a spokesperson for Netanyahu; he pioneered the entire social media strategy for the Israeli government during its most recent assault on protestors in Gaza.

Keyes is apparently widely known to be a sexual predator. But unlike every detail of Salazar's biography and ancestry, Keyes' behavior was never reported on.

posted by zombieflanders at 6:37 AM on September 12, 2018 [4 favorites]

Googling all the candidates' names together netted me an utterly pathetic 50 total results, with essentially no information whatsoever about who these fucking people are or why I should or should not vote for any of them

Yeah, I always really hate court races, where there are no position statements and you don't get to see people's past activity and basically have to datamine them to even get clues. The system is pretty broken there.
posted by corb at 7:40 AM on September 12, 2018 [2 favorites]

I asked my coworker whose entire job is local organizing and advocacy in Brooklyn, and she didn't know anything about any of the Kings County Civil Court candidates either. So, Google it is!

Here is the little I could find, for the other Brooklynites in this thread.

The candidates (pick two) are:
Loren Baily-Schiffman (Incumbent)
Ingrid Joseph (Incumbent)
Saul Cohen
Sheryl Orwel

There was a town hall where only the incumbents showed up, and from the quotes they sound like decent people. The two incumbents also got an "approved" rating from the NY LGBT Bar, and the others got a rating of "failed to appear" meaning they didn't answer the questionnaire, I guess.

The Post slammed Loren Baily-Schiffman for "going easy on defendants" so, points in her favor.

Basically, I can't find a major reason not to vote for the incumbents or a major reason to vote for the other two, who both seem to have almost zero online presence. It doesn't seem like either of them is taking their run particularly seriously.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:34 AM on September 12, 2018 [6 favorites]

According to Raphael Aren at the Times of Israel, there are at least 12 women accusing Keyes of "inappropriate behavior toward them and other women" and a second (besides Salazar's) accusation of sexual assault. An article is coming shortly, and they've got receipts.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:10 AM on September 12, 2018 [1 favorite]

For what it's worth I looked into judges too and my findings match showbiz_liz's. Also, Councilmember Brad Lander, who I generally agree with, has endorsed the incumbents.

Kings County Politics ran pieces on the incumbents, too, and they sounded pretty good. (KCP is a little nuts though--anyone seen their recent piece on Hamilton/Myrie?)
posted by ferret branca at 11:15 AM on September 12, 2018 [1 favorite]

TOI article is up: Not just Salazar: 12 women cite pattern of improper behavior by PM’s aide Keyes

Ten other women have also been in contact with The Times of Israel in recent months, with allegations that include one detailed accusation of physically aggressive behavior by Keyes, claims of overly aggressive advances by him, and incidents of inappropriate behavior. The women spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Several sources, furthermore, have said that Keyes’s alleged improper behavior toward women, which took place before he was appointed Netanyahu’s spokesman in 2016, was so well-known that he was asked to stay away from certain offices that he used to frequent in New York.

Keyes was first accused of sexual assault by Salazar in April 2016, in a private Facebook post that was subsequently deleted, but that Salazar has now acknowledged posting.

The Times of Israel has been in contact with 12 women — Salazar, Raice and 10 others who have asked not to be named — all of whom reported, mostly independently of one another, unpleasant encounters with Keyes, and with several men who corroborated some of their accounts. Only Salazar and Raice, who came forward in their own names this week, have agreed to be identified. The Times of Israel has been investigating allegations against Keyes since the first accusation was published in 2016, but had been wary of publishing further allegations based solely on anonymous testimony.

posted by zombieflanders at 11:27 AM on September 12, 2018 [2 favorites]

The international (!) gutter-press campaign against Salazar has been unbelievable. I can't recall any other politician that has been subjected to hostile scrutiny of their family situation back to the time of the Spanish Inquisition -- not even a presidential candidate, much less a contestant in a state senate primary.

I don't support her campaign, but nobody should have to go through this.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 1:33 PM on September 12, 2018

I wish I could vote tomorrow. Good luck to us, New York MeFites.
posted by ragtag at 5:44 PM on September 12, 2018 [3 favorites]

Change Research poll of AG:

Teachout 28
James 27
Maloney 26
Eve 3

[MOE: +/- 3.5%]

Basically consistent with the other limited polling we've seen, which is that Eve is out, but any of James, Maloney, or Teachout could pull it out. I still have a hunch for Teachout - she's staked out the strongest anti-Trump position, has some name recognition from her governor run a few years back, and has a lot of newspaper endorsements. But definitely could fall another way.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:09 PM on September 12, 2018 [2 favorites]

Honestly, as someone with a Latin American Catholic family whose name was also on that damn list Spain released...my heart goes out to Salazar but I’m also super irritated by her. Like, yes, a lot of us had this moment of “did we leave because we were Jews? Can we return to Spain?” But it’s not backed by family history, it’s not backed by reality, and you need to give it up as not a real thing, just an escapism fantasy.

If anything, this points out why it’s not a great idea for super young people who haven’t figured themselves out yet to run for office. They just don’t have the life experience to be able to own their confused time as a searching time, and they reflexively hide it instead of laugh it off.

I get that it’s a super complicated feeling if you’re on the left and you come from a family that was wealthy before they immigrated. My god, do I understand that feeling! But you can’t hide it. You can’t hide that you have a 600k trust fund, you can’t call yourself working class. You just can’t. You can spin that story in a way that helps your campaign, but you have to know going in that it’s going to come up and pre-emptively have an answer.
posted by corb at 6:22 PM on September 12, 2018 [5 favorites]

@bejohnce

IF YOU VOTE TOMORROW IN THE NYC PRIMARY AND SEND ME A PIC OF YOU AT YOUR POLLING PLACE WITH THE DAMN STICKER, I SOLEMNLY SWEAR TO DM YOU A PERSONALIZED STEVE BRADY IMPRESSION WHICH, FOR THOSE FAMILIAR WITH MY OUVRE, IS *LEGENDARY*
posted by The Whelk at 6:32 PM on September 12, 2018 [2 favorites]

I'M SUPER EXCITED TO VOTE FOR NIXON AND TEACHOUT TOMORROW!

It would give me great pleasure to upend the smug elitism of Andrew Cuomo, and I think Nixon would be a great progressive governor.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:25 PM on September 12, 2018 [1 favorite]

WAIT, IS IT CAPS LOCK DAY ALREADY?
posted by Chrysostom at 9:01 PM on September 12, 2018 [2 favorites]

A small totem, left here at the crossroads.
posted by The Whelk at 9:37 PM on September 12, 2018 [1 favorite]

If anything, this points out why it’s not a great idea for super young people who haven’t figured themselves out yet to run for office. They just don’t have the life experience to be able to own their confused time as a searching time, and they reflexively hide it instead of laugh it off

There's a power differential here, in that the white dudes who historically dominate elected office are doing all of the same embarrassing stuff, but they have a traditional gatekeep on members keeping it all to themselves. DC, Hollywood, probably some random plumber's union...all of them are keeping the date rapes and bullying and financial games and casual ratfucking on the QT. Meanwhile, outsiders (and those who fall out of favor) get picked apart for not paying for the bus that one time, or for just being on food stamps once, or for smoking pot.

This is to say, it's not a good idea for super young people...to run for office, unless you're Skull and Bones or whatever.
posted by rhizome at 10:32 PM on September 12, 2018 [1 favorite]

If anything, this points out why it’s not a great idea for super young people who haven’t figured themselves out yet to run for office.

Yeah, this. Don’t trust anyone under thirty.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:32 PM on September 12, 2018

Former Cuomo Aide Drafted Language for Inflammatory Anti-Semitism Flier
posted by zombieflanders at 4:44 AM on September 13, 2018

This, of course, didn't actually prevent the NYT from endorsing Cuomo, because as we all know a man who is 40 points ahead and still taps Jewish Democrats to attack a woman who has raised three children in the Jewish faith as a virulent anti-Semite totally has the temperament and progressive values NY needs right now.
posted by zombieflanders at 4:58 AM on September 13, 2018 [6 favorites]

I voted!
posted by ferret branca at 5:00 AM on September 13, 2018 [5 favorites]

And now I'm gonna be late to work because of train problems and poor MTA communication. Thanks, Cuomo!
posted by ferret branca at 5:23 AM on September 13, 2018 [4 favorites]

I was 59th at my vote scanner (or voting place?) this morning at like 10 am, and I saw lots of young people with stickers, so. C’mon Teachout, at least.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:51 AM on September 13, 2018

I can't say my polling place was crowded this morning, but it was by far the busiest I've seen it for a primary.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 8:54 AM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

I'm useless in the mornings, but I will totally be voting Cynthia and Teachout after work today!
posted by SansPoint at 8:55 AM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

I saw a truly ridiculous post on my Facebook this am, from a not-super-close friend who was very very centrally involved in the effort to bring marriage equality to NYS. He was talking all about how we had to stick with the guy who got us that win (as though Cynthia Nixon would be a poor advocate for LGBTQ+ rights) and concern for the lack of management experience brought by Nixon as a celebrity/actor.

I just want to point out the rich irony of Cuomo's folks tauting his management experience over Nixons, in a week when he opened a bridge despite the engineers saying it was unsafe and signed off on a racist campaign mailer because he failed to turn it over and read the racist side.

ffs

My polling place was busier than usual this am, to be sure.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:03 AM on September 13, 2018 [8 favorites]

I know it’s not going to happen, but this morning I thought about the scale of the shitstorm that would erupt if Nixon did win. Like Cuomo wouldn’t just go away, and neither would his machine. It would get...crazy.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:09 AM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

Looks like there’s some voter surpression going on as people dem registered a year ago are showing up as Reform Party members.
posted by The Whelk at 9:41 AM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

Never rule out incompetence as a possibility. Local elections people are often not super skilled.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:42 AM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

I mean this happens every primary due to the two fists of suppression and incompetence
posted by The Whelk at 9:45 AM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Gothamist is live blogging the primaries here.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:52 AM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

Buckle Down With Nixon
posted by contraption at 9:59 AM on September 13, 2018

What type of merchandise is Cuomo using? Black ball caps with his name in white lettering by any chance?

The only reason I ask is because I just caught a couple of minutes of CNN. The network sent Cooper, Lemon and Cuomo down to North and South Carolina to cover the storm. Cuomo is standing by a pier in North Myrtle Beach in a black polo shirt and a black ball cap. The cap seems to have "Cuomo" written across the front with something in a much smaller script below. There is also writing across the back. Unfortunately, there wasn't a tight enough shot to make out the fine print.

If it is a campaign hat, I'm pretty unimpressed that CNN let him wear it.
posted by sardonyx at 10:19 AM on September 13, 2018

to the best of my knowledge there are no cuomo campaign hats going around. . . a cursory search of the twitters leads me to the conclusion that the small word below cuomo is "primetime" cobminging the two words give you . . . the name of his show?

im not saying his brother isnt a dirty politician, but i DO think its ok to not see dirty tricks everywhere just because we know some are being played.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:57 AM on September 13, 2018

We love a sash

From the reports it looks like voter roll stuff is mostly happening in IDC districts.

Funny, that.
posted by The Whelk at 10:58 AM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

Ah, that makes sense Exceptional_Hubris. Somehow I wasn't thinking about the show's own promotional swag. I guess I just had this thread and the mess that is U.S. politics on my mind.
posted by sardonyx at 11:01 AM on September 13, 2018

Do other folks' polling places have large signs claiming you need "proper identification" to enter? Mine does, and did at the last election too. I think it's because the polling place is in a school, and I think the signs are always there. But it seems like they should be covered up on election day.
posted by enn at 11:01 AM on September 13, 2018

I vote at Borough Hall which has no such signs.

I saw (i think in that linked gothamist article) that one of the schools being used as a polling place had a huge check from sleazy Senator Jesse Hamilton hanging in the halls, probably not electioneering but also a bad look.

From Lydia Polgreen, EIC of HuffPo: When we asked @srl to write this story, we knew the voting laws and practices in NY were bad. But I was just forced to file an affidavit ballot despite having registered in a new district *over a year ago*.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:11 AM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

I think the ID thing is school-related, I saw someone mention having an issue with it on Twitter. Definitely something that should be addressed.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:28 AM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

From the reports it looks like voter roll stuff is mostly happening in IDC districts.


Looks like something for AG Teachout to investigate maybe idk
posted by schadenfrau at 11:45 AM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

(My polling place seemed busier then usual for a primary but it could’ve been cause I went closer to lunchtime then I would normally)
posted by The Whelk at 12:07 PM on September 13, 2018

Voted in Bushwick this morning! Let's go Nixon/Williams/Teachout/Salazar!!
posted by wemayfreeze at 12:10 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

assorted twitter round up of various fuckeries:

@TweetBenMax: BdB says his son Dante went to vote, had his vote car from the BOE, but was not in the book and was not allowed to cast a normal ballot, had to fill in affidavid ballot. BdB is railing against BOE, calling for change, profressionalization, reforms passed in Albany in 2019.

@sonofbaldwin: On #NYPrimary day, #NYCHA asked its residents, mostly people of color, to remain home from 8am to 4pm for an apartment inspection. Is that suss to you or nah? #VoteNYC [tweet includes notice to tenants of expectation they be home all day for inspections]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 12:22 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Looks like there’s some voter surpression going on as people dem registered a year ago are showing up as Reform Party members.

Reminder that NYS voting laws, wheich exist in no small part due to fuckery by Cuomo with healthy assists from the IDC, have been cited as a model to aspire to in decisions upholding Jim Crow voter suppression.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:28 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

@ryancooper

“at what point do New Yorkers start building barricades and issuing demands for a democratic form of government“
posted by The Whelk at 12:37 PM on September 13, 2018 [6 favorites]

In the Shelby County case, the Supremes ruled that it was unconstitutional to treat the states differently based on bad acts from 50 years ago, so threw out the pre-approval shit list. Southern states couldn’t pull this kind of shit under the Voting Rights Act.

Maybe they should just apply the pre-approval rules to everywhere.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 12:56 PM on September 13, 2018 [4 favorites]

Via Gothamist, included in the list of missing voter registrations was Dante de Blasio.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:42 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

In a not entirely unexpected move, following Nicki Minaj's (surprise/gross) endorsement of Cuomo yesterday, Cardi B came out with this banger on her instagram: iamcardibPolls close around 8PM .NEW YORKERS VOTE NOW !!!!!! #cynthia #jumaane

[photo of cynthia and nixon accompanys the post] - guys it has 80k likes in the first 20 minutes.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:36 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Too bad that's the wrong poll closing time.
posted by enn at 2:41 PM on September 13, 2018

better too early than too late?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 2:44 PM on September 13, 2018

How far off were the polls in the AOC-Crowley race? It was like a 50 point swing or something right?

C’mon writers. Build to sweeps.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:59 PM on September 13, 2018 [4 favorites]

Anyone know when the first results will come in? Or if there are any exit polls coming up?
posted by schadenfrau at 3:10 PM on September 13, 2018

The guy right in front of me at the polls was also missing from the list and confused about why - said he hadn't moved, and showed the poll worker ID with an address confirming that he ought to have been listed in the book at her station. This is obscene.
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:34 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

It's a bit late for this election I guess, but I would definitely check the voter registration lookup here - https://voterlookup.elections.ny.gov/ - to double check that everything is correct. I had the experience of many others in the 2016 primaries where I was taken off the rolls, and it turned out that my status was changed to "Inactive." Of course, the best solution would be if these types of things never happened in the first place, but I've been a lot more careful ever since and was able to vote today with no problems.
posted by chernoffhoeffding at 3:42 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

lots of people are reporting that they did exactly that, and they still weren't on the rolls when they got to their polling place.

is anyone reporting on the scale of the problem yet? like how bad is it?
posted by schadenfrau at 3:47 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

What I would bet may also be happening is that people are checking to see if they are still registered, and not thinking moves of, say, a few blocks, would move them to another district. Which NYC is /notorious/ at, especially with its constantly shifting districts where different sides of the street vote in different precincts.
posted by corb at 3:52 PM on September 13, 2018

We didn't have any problems voting today, luckily. It wasn't busy but I get the feeling turnout is decent. Last year's mayoral primary had a turnout of 150 in our election district; our ballots were already in the 160s when we voted around 1:30pm. Last year's general election had a turnout of 300 in our ED, so it's at least on track with that.
posted by melissasaurus at 3:57 PM on September 13, 2018

I was voter 89 in my small, Central Queens district. Which seems pretty good, though I wish it were higher.
posted by SansPoint at 4:18 PM on September 13, 2018

It seems IDC-er Alcantara is texting voters telling them that polls close at 7:30. [tweet]
posted by melissasaurus at 4:20 PM on September 13, 2018

schadenfrau: "How far off were the polls in the AOC-Crowley race? It was like a 50 point swing or something right?

C’mon writers. Build to sweeps."

Primary polling is tough. That said *House* primary polling is a lot worse than for statewide offices.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:49 PM on September 13, 2018

Huh

From local news

Suffolk Democratic turnout is crazy high, on pace to triple 2014’s.
As of 5 p.m., 40,388 Democrats had cast ballots, according to Board of Election figures, compared to 17,962 who voted during the entire day in 2014.
posted by The Whelk at 4:56 PM on September 13, 2018 [8 favorites]

Suffolk has Democrats?? (I kid. But only a little.)

I was only ballot 47 at the scanner around 5:30pm. But the polling place had 6 or 7 machines. I have no idea if that’s normal turnout for my precinct.
posted by uncleozzy at 5:27 PM on September 13, 2018

Who do we want for AG? Teachout?
posted by Justinian at 5:52 PM on September 13, 2018

I want Teachout for AG.

I wanted her for Congress two years ago.

I wasn't a voter four years ago but I bet she'd've been a much better governor than Cuomo.
posted by ragtag at 5:55 PM on September 13, 2018

Teachout is best, James second. Fuck Maloney.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:08 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

This is too stressful for me
posted by The Whelk at 6:31 PM on September 13, 2018

......Julia gonna do it?
posted by The Whelk at 6:33 PM on September 13, 2018

Wow. Cuomo crushed Nixon. Disappointing, to say the least.
posted by standardasparagus at 6:38 PM on September 13, 2018

Where are you guys looking?
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:40 PM on September 13, 2018

I am looking at the NY times site here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/09/13/us/elections/results-new-york-primary-elections.html
posted by standardasparagus at 6:41 PM on September 13, 2018

Links?
posted by schadenfrau at 6:41 PM on September 13, 2018

NYT results page.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:41 PM on September 13, 2018

NYTimes has live results.

Not gonna go look them up but just by memory Nixon is at least doing better than her most recent polling?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:41 PM on September 13, 2018

A lot of positive stuff happening downballot, though. Remember that governor is not the only office that matters!
posted by Chrysostom at 6:42 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

Not at all surprised Felder is winning in the 17th, but damn is that disappointing.
posted by SansPoint at 6:43 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

DKE has a liveblog page here (they have several throughout the night, but they'll link when they switch to a new one).
posted by Chrysostom at 6:44 PM on September 13, 2018

If Nixon maintains 30% of the vote it will scare the shit out of Andrew Cuomo.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:46 PM on September 13, 2018

Vox: Andrew Cuomo has won himself another term, but his presidential aspirations are dead
posted by Chrysostom at 6:47 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Looks like only one IDC Senator is keeping their seat
posted by The Whelk at 6:48 PM on September 13, 2018 [7 favorites]

If Nixon maintains 30% of the vote it will scare the shit out of Andrew Cuomo

And possibly Chuck Schumer.

Wtf is going on with Teachout and Williams though?
posted by schadenfrau at 6:48 PM on September 13, 2018

Here's a fun fact: only once since 1900 has an incumbent NY gov who sought re-nomination failed to do so (1912, John Alden Dix).
posted by Chrysostom at 6:50 PM on September 13, 2018

I filled in the bubble for Nixon today myself*, but don't forget or refuse to vote for Cuomo in November. Even or especially if Nixon stays on the ballot on the WFP line -- she's shown us tonight that she just doesn't have the support to win and that all she could do is hand a minority victory to Molinaro.

*I'm still not a thousand percent sure about it. Except when it's about LBGT stuff, I really don't like voting contrary to black women.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:51 PM on September 13, 2018

I might just write in J.R. "Bob" Dobbs for Governor in November.

I won't have any qualms about voting for Letitia James, though. I'd have preferred Teachout, but it could be worse.
posted by SansPoint at 6:53 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

We tried so hard, SansPoint! Ugh.
posted by ferret branca at 6:57 PM on September 13, 2018

AP calls for Salazar in SD-18.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:57 PM on September 13, 2018 [9 favorites]

I'm in Ocasio-Cortez's district in Queens, and Teachout's campaign was totally invisible here. James had signs in shop windows, people at the farmer's market for months -- everything AOC had. Teachout had nothing. I wanted her to win, but never for a moment imagined she would.
posted by neroli at 6:57 PM on September 13, 2018

Wow, a great night for the No-IDC candidates! I know people who worked for Jessica Ramos, Robert Jackson and Zellnor Myrie and they all seemed like such great candidates. It's really exciting, even it is only the state senate.
posted by maggiemaggie at 6:59 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

I am really disheartened about Teachout. She was promising to go after real estate developers, financial crimes, and Trump. Right now the NY AG seems like a national position and that...sucks.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:01 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Yeah, Savino looks safe in SD-23, but the other seven are all trailing.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:01 PM on September 13, 2018

I don't know as much as I might about NY politics but I do know that I hate the IDC. Good job, guys.
posted by Justinian at 7:03 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

I might just write in J.R. "Bob" Dobbs for Governor in November.

Please don't do that or other silly stunts. Unless you really do like Molinaro better for some misbegotten reason, just vote for Cuomo. Yeah, fine, you'd rather it was Nixon; me too. She's not on offer any more and filling in the bubble for Cuomo won't pollute our precious bodily fluids.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:04 PM on September 13, 2018 [5 favorites]

I think Cuomo winning in November is a foregone conclusion, to be honest. Voting for "Bob" won't make a difference there.
posted by SansPoint at 7:06 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

Primary voters way up over 2014. Prediction: GOP bloodbath in November.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:10 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

I think Cuomo winning in November is a foregone conclusion

The timeline demons are still fucking with us too much to say that.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:10 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

Primary voters way up over 2014.

Like, on target for between double and triple, and 2014 had a functional D primary for governor too.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:11 PM on September 13, 2018

AP calls SD-31 for Jackson, defeating IDC-er Alcantara.

One down.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:12 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Called for Zellnor!!!
posted by ferret branca at 7:12 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

Yeah, Savino looks safe in SD-23, but the other seven are all trailing.

NYT has John Liu at 56% with 86% reporting; Jessica Ramos at 56% with 76% reporting; Zellnor Myrie at 56% with 79% reporting; Biaggi at 54% with 81% reporting and they show Robert Jackson as the winner.

All No-IDC Candidates
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:13 PM on September 13, 2018

Called for Zellnor! YAY!
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:14 PM on September 13, 2018

(On NY1.)
posted by ferret branca at 7:14 PM on September 13, 2018

@NickReisman: NY1: Zellnor Myrie defeats former IDC Sen. Jesse Hamilton. Jessica Ramos defeats former IDC Sen. Jose Peralta.

NY1 also calling it for Ramos. IDC is going down!

Interestingly, I'm told most all the IDC candidates have alternate ballot lines available to them in the general if they really want to make this difficult.
posted by zachlipton at 7:15 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

It looks like Simcha Felder (IDC) is staying on though.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:16 PM on September 13, 2018

maggiemaggie: Yeah, I'm not at all surprised there...
posted by SansPoint at 7:17 PM on September 13, 2018

Yeah, if you look at the NYT results page, it lists the other party lines. Like in SD-20, Zellnor has Dems and WFP, but Hamilton has Indep and WE.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:18 PM on September 13, 2018

He's actually not IDC; he just outright caucuses with Republicans! Lucky me.
posted by ferret branca at 7:19 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

IDC is going down!

Maybe Cuomo will be forced to actually get something done in his next term?
posted by Brak at 7:20 PM on September 13, 2018

Yeah Felder is actually WORSE than IDC if you can believe it
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:20 PM on September 13, 2018 [5 favorites]

In LG, Hochul has pulled ahead now that Buffalo is reporting in, that's probably all she needs.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 PM on September 13, 2018

60/40 felder vs morris is not that bad given the vast corruption of that district.
posted by lalochezia at 7:20 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

There's a sharp ethnic division, too, isn't there?
posted by Chrysostom at 7:22 PM on September 13, 2018

It's a very Orthodox district, gerrymandered that way.
posted by ferret branca at 7:24 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

(I'm at the Blake results party, thanks for tuning in, everyone!)
posted by ferret branca at 7:25 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

If things go well in Novemener, the DSA will have 49 dues paying members in state and federal office nationwide
posted by The Whelk at 7:31 PM on September 13, 2018 [7 favorites]

Here are some short videos about 3 of the No-IDC Candidates:

Zellnor Myrie

Robert Jackson

Jessica Ramos
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:32 PM on September 13, 2018

They are calling the AG race for Letita James.

I'm bummed for NY state and I'm bummed for the country. We needed Teachout.

While James was an able public advocate, AG is a very different kettle of fish. We needed to fight corruption nationally and in albany with an expert, and we needed someone not beholden to the machine.

She doesn't have the chops to go after trump and she's very much cuomo's creature, so albany is back in the swamp.

It was ultra depressing looking at "everywhere outside of manhattan in NYC" voting for James by HUGE numbers.
posted by lalochezia at 7:36 PM on September 13, 2018 [4 favorites]

NY1 calling it for Biaggi over Klein, the (former) IDC leader.

And this amazing stat:

@vwang3: Jeff Klein spent $2 million since January trying to keep his state legislative seat. That's more than Cynthia Nixon spent on her statewide bid against Gov. Cuomo.
posted by zachlipton at 7:36 PM on September 13, 2018 [13 favorites]

Downballot, super-Trumpy Democrat Paul Van Blarcum has lost big in the Ulster County Sheriff's race.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:37 PM on September 13, 2018 [5 favorites]

I think this is the right take:

Nixon, it should be said, really took one for the team here.

No real politicians wanted to run a hopeless race, she stepped up, pushed Cuomo left on issues, shed light on the IDC situation and contributed meaningfully to their defeat.

Not bad work at all.

posted by Chrysostom at 8:01 PM on September 13, 2018 [35 favorites]

@eorden: AP has called the LG Democratic primary race for Kathy Hochul.

And AP called Tish James for Attorney General.
posted by zachlipton at 8:05 PM on September 13, 2018

I’m pretty happy that some of those IDC fuckers are on their way out, and anything that ends Cuomo’s presidential hopes is a victory of some kind.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:07 PM on September 13, 2018 [2 favorites]

Haven't heard this one discussed, but the incumbent Dem is losing in AD-18, and she sounds like something of a piece of work.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:08 PM on September 13, 2018 [1 favorite]

In SD-53, Rachel May has ousted IDC-er David Valesky.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:10 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

So, looks like the final total is 6 of 8 IDC Senators defeated:

SD-11: Tony Avella - Lost
SD-13: Jose Peralta - Lost
SD-20: Jesse Hamilton - Lost
SD-23: Diane Savino - won
SD-31: Marisol Alcantara - Lost
SD-34: Jeff Klein - Lost
SD-38: David Carlucci - won
SD-49: David Valesky - Lost

Plus Salazar won. Clearly a disappointing night in some areas, but these Senate changes are a big deal.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:23 PM on September 13, 2018 [12 favorites]

What kind of legislation has been held up by the quislings? I mean, I know the answer is probably most accurately "all of it" but what are the priorities that can pass now?
posted by Justinian at 8:25 PM on September 13, 2018

Yeah, wow, Hooper turned out to be bad news.
posted by ferret branca at 8:27 PM on September 13, 2018

What this means is, the state senate is going to be radically different - bills such as the NY Health Act will appear on Coumo’s desk and he’ll have the publically sign them or not.

For someone who created the IDC so he could defer this very situation and *isnt very good at appearing in public or defending his actions* this should be ...interesting.

Hope you like your monkey law wish Andrew, ya cheap suit Republican.
posted by The Whelk at 8:27 PM on September 13, 2018 [9 favorites]

Someone else correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think we get much since there's still Felder. We've gotta flip Golden or another Republican to get change.
posted by ferret branca at 8:28 PM on September 13, 2018

1 like = 1 peice of preogressive legislation killed in the senate by turncoat (IDC) democrats

It’s 434 bills BTW
posted by The Whelk at 8:32 PM on September 13, 2018 [3 favorites]

Yes, the Democrats need to pick up at least one seat to take control. From what I've seen, this is considered pretty likely. 39 and 50 are both open seats where the Dems have a good shot, and there are some others.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:36 PM on September 13, 2018

there is still time to launch felder into the sun
posted by poffin boffin at 8:36 PM on September 13, 2018 [7 favorites]

the big unpassed bill is the NY Health Act, cause - holy hell single payer for all New Yorkers (also I don't want California to get there first) But there's loads of good stuff in there, like codifying Roe V Wade and abortion access into law, universal rent control acts, early and absentee voting, and oh just the most progressive climate law in the country.
posted by The Whelk at 8:44 PM on September 13, 2018 [9 favorites]

(it's not actually 434 I mistook a joke for reality and then the editing window closed()

(But it is a lot)
posted by The Whelk at 8:49 PM on September 13, 2018

I like Tish James and Zephyr Teachout, and I'm definitely happy to see Tish win. It's a historic moment for New York State, and I hope it doesn't get overshadowed by the fact that people really like Zephyr.
posted by chernoffhoeffding at 4:05 AM on September 14, 2018 [4 favorites]

Went to bed early last night and I googled for the Nixon/Cuomo result first thing when I woke up this morning. Okay, she lost and that is disappointing but I agree with the above that her running was a good thing. Here's what really irritated me though: like every single headline that popped up in my search was some variation of Cuomo "easily" defeats Nixon. The word "easily" was literally in like, the first five of them. From looking at all those headlines you'd think he didn't sweat for a minute, and that she had no support whatsoever.

On the other hand. I recently decided to join up and start volunteering for Postcards to Voters (thanks Metafilter!) but I have been kinda wondering how effective it is. When I saw the NY results this AM, it was cool to see names I recognized from previous postcard campaigns had won (Zellnor Myrie, Alessandra Biaggi). I don't know anything about these races really so maybe it's just that they were already competitive, or other factors, but it really makes me happy to think the postcards could be helping to push the needle!
posted by robotdevil at 4:15 AM on September 14, 2018 [5 favorites]

This map of the NY AG race is so interesting. Blue is Sean Patrick Maloney, who finished 3rd; purple is Zephyr Teachout (2nd); green is Tish James, who won. White progressive candidates cannot win without connecting with nonwhite voters.

Not exactly sure about that framing, but that is an interesting map.
posted by gwint at 6:10 AM on September 14, 2018

Maloney is a cretinous snake (I once had the misfortune of living in his district) and it would not surprise me if, as someone in that Twitter thread suggests, he was induced to enter the AG race specifically to split the "progressive" (not that he is) vote.
posted by enn at 6:35 AM on September 14, 2018 [1 favorite]

I'm not sure I'd extend that map to race, necessarily. (It may be true, I don't know!)

Other plausible explanations:

• There is a solid upstate/downstate cultural divide generally, with upstaters [including myself, sorry, I'm trying ♥️] generally distrustful of downstaters and vice-versa. (Teachout is from Vermont—pretty close, culturally, to Eastern and Northern New York—and lives at least part-time upstate, while James is from Brooklyn.)
• Teachout has a lot of name recognition upstate from her failed 2016 Congressional bid in NY-19.

posted by ragtag at 6:40 AM on September 14, 2018 [1 favorite]

So in 2016 I wasn't registered with a party, so couldn't vote in any primaries, so immediately after the election I registered for the Democratic party. In March of this year I checked and I was still not listed as a registered democrat, so I tried again. In August when I got my little voter thing in the mail I *STILL* wasn't listed, so did it again. Somehow when I showed up to vote I was registered under the Reform party?! WTF even is this shit. Fuck this, why even fucking bother? I need to move back to Canada or something.
posted by Grither at 6:53 AM on September 14, 2018 [2 favorites]

The word "easily" was literally in like, the first five of them. From looking at all those headlines you'd think he didn't sweat for a minute, and that she had no support whatsoever.

True. Nixon clearly rattled Cuomo. He showed himself to be pretty vulnerable. Nixon exposed some real problems of his that he can't just talk his way out of, that he'll need to make serious changes for (if he's so inclined).

65% is not a great score for a performance review. That a third of your party is willing to take a chance on an untested someone instead of more of you -- that's not much of a show of confidence. He's got his hands on all the levers of the party machinery, and he only got 65%? He's not nearly as in control as he or anyone else thought he was.

Full credit to Nixon. She ran a great campaign, and probably accomplished more than she could reasonably have expected. The result may be disappointing for her personally, but she accomplished a lot of good here.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:11 AM on September 14, 2018 [8 favorites]

Seconding ragtag to a certain extent, I think most of the explanation of the AG map is the geographical bases of the candidates: let's remember that Teachout ran for John Faso's seat in the Hudson Valley pretty recently. But another factor is that a white progressive is gonna play better in Manhattan and Fancy Brooklyn.
posted by lackutrol at 7:20 AM on September 14, 2018 [2 favorites]

I love that Albany and its surrounding all went for Nixon. They know something the rest of the state doesn't.

Anyone taking bets on whether Cuomo sticks to his campaign promise not to run for president in 2020?
posted by kokaku at 7:33 AM on September 14, 2018 [2 favorites]

Taking this as an endorsement would be a very Worst Timeline thing so I am sure it will happen.
posted by Artw at 7:39 AM on September 14, 2018 [1 favorite]

What Cynthia Nixon Won by Losing - Christina Cauterucci, Slate

There is a case to be made that a celebrity candidate, even one with a history of political advocacy, should launch her political career by pursuing a smaller-scale position. You could also argue that celebrities should eschew political candidacy entirely in favor of throwing their cultural and financial weight behind people with more experience and lives that mirror the average voter’s.

But if Nixon’s goal was to make a difference in the Democratic Party, not just in New York, she undoubtedly succeeded—because of her celebrity, not despite it. Nixon focused the entire country’s eyes on a gubernatorial election whose results have never seemed like anything but a foregone conclusion. She encouraged New York voters and a significant number of outsiders to think about what the Democratic Party should stand for and be willing to settle for.

Cuomo has long been floated as a possible 2020 presidential candidate; the reckoning that Nixon forced this year could help the party choose a better nominee when the primaries roll around. Thanks to Nixon’s star power, his shortcomings are now national news.

I added paragraph breaks, and highlights are mine.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:45 AM on September 14, 2018 [11 favorites]

I only started to get REALLY plugged in to local and state politics within the last year or two, but I don't remember ever hearing much but praise for Leticia James. I still voted for Teachout for the reasons we've all discussed, but James isn't Cuomo, and I'm reserving judgement on her as AG.
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:50 AM on September 14, 2018 [4 favorites]

Is most of the post-victory coverage of the NY Gov primary spinning Cuomo as a progressive?
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:57 AM on September 14, 2018

My concern is that James is a machine candidate, and the machine in NYS is not really separable from real estate, finance, and all the criminality in both of those areas. It’s the corruption, basically, and because of where Trump came from, it has national and international implications.

I didn’t see much in the way of campaigning from either Teachout or James (and none from Maloney), but from what I did see, Teachout explicitly ran on going after the corruption in finance, real estate, and Trumpworld. Literally everything I saw of James was on the Cuomo ticket.

I’d love to be wrong. But I don’t know how you stay part of the NYS machine and also go after Trump, let alone the rest of the endemic corruption.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:39 AM on September 14, 2018 [4 favorites]

I am so happy to see the IDC folks getting kicked out, and I hope that if they decide to run in the general anyway ("look at me! I'm an incumbent! please disregard the party affiliation beside my name on this ballot"), the progressive organizers in NY see it as a high priority to enlighten their constituents.

Which Republicans are we particularly targeting in the state Senate for the general election, to get a healthy Democratic majority and pass the NY Health Act?

And now that Teachout knows she's not going to be NY AG, what should we expect her to be focusing on next? More lawsuits against Trump in some other capacity?
posted by brainwane at 8:41 AM on September 14, 2018

Here's one person's preview of the NY Senate races. 3, 39, 42, 43, 50 are all GOP-held open seats. Some other opportunities there, too.

Projecting directly from primary turnout is foolish, but it must be said that Dem turnout this time was way, way up. The kind that implies even Lean R seats may be in real trouble.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:00 AM on September 14, 2018 [2 favorites]

From Streetsblog: Insurgents Topple Incumbents in a Democratic Primary That Bodes Well for Congestion Pricing [plus other safe streets and pro-transit efforts]

When the legislature convenes again, the Senate will have fewer cynical, listless Democrats doing as little as they can for transit riders, and more energetic newcomers who ran on promises to do right by their subway- and bus-riding constituents — i.e., most New Yorkers.

If Democrats retake the Senate in November, the path to enacting landmark legislation like congestion pricing will be clearer than ever, while a replay of this year’s failure to expand NYC’s speed camera program will be nearly unthinkable [...]

When Nixon hammered Cuomo on transit, it echoed in the down-ballot races. Several State Senate challengers articulated thoughtful positions on congestion pricing, reining in transit capital costs, and how they plan to provide oversight of the MTA once in office. Many of those challengers will be seated in Albany next session.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:46 AM on September 14, 2018 [8 favorites]

Chrysostom, I think Josh Marshall agrees with you.

This City & State roundup notes how newsworthy Taylor Raynor's win over Earlene Hooper is, and points out that Catalina Cruz may be the first Dreamer elected to state legislature.
posted by brainwane at 9:59 AM on September 14, 2018 [3 favorites]

From that same City & State article, this is one to watch for November. District 22, which is in Bay Ridge, is currently held by Republican Marty Golden.

District 22, Democratic Primary
Andrew Gounardes: 51.75%
Ross Barkan: 37.64%

Andrew Gounardes, counsel to Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, tried in 2012 to knock out state Sen. Marty Golden, one of the few downstate Republicans who has represented southern Brooklyn for 16 years despite a nearly 2-1 voter enrollment advantage for Democrats. After beating journalist Ross Barkan in Thursday’s primary, Gounardes will have another shot at Golden, who won by over 15 points in their last race. Gounardes has a long history of community engagement and government experience that he is running on, and Democrats hope he will be able to ride a blue wave in November to replace Golden.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:08 AM on September 14, 2018 [1 favorite]

Voting in New York Is an Undemocratic Disgrace. Plus: Why Andrew Cuomo is the Ted Cruz of the Democratic Party.
posted by homunculus at 10:43 AM on September 14, 2018 [5 favorites]

Why Andrew Cuomo is the Ted Cruz of the Democratic Party.

Jesus, I thought it was bad when someone said he looked like the bad guy in The Mask, but that is mean.
posted by Etrigan at 11:40 AM on September 14, 2018 [3 favorites]

New Yorker at the Salazar victory party.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:59 AM on September 14, 2018 [2 favorites]

NYC voting maps for Nixon and Salazar. I think the takeaway is that DSA is capable of winning elections in territories that their members/constituency have moved/are moving into, but they have trouble winning in contests that also include other areas (see also the Ocasio-Cortez map).
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:20 PM on September 14, 2018 [2 favorites]

One data point is that our Nixon endorsement was limited, there was co-canvassing and flyering and cross promotion, but nothing like the push for Salazar. Although there is a reluctance to do the kind of ethnic bloc voting that characterizes a lot of NYC politics - more integration into existing communities is needed, the Uptown Branch is good at this with stuff like community garden work days. I’d love to work on more community oriented actions in the future now that the electoral hurdle is past.
posted by The Whelk at 5:39 PM on September 14, 2018 [1 favorite]

Also for note, the down ticket success really belongs to the work community groups like NO IDC NYC and Communities For Change - they've been making sure people who what the IDC is who their state senator is for years now.
posted by The Whelk at 8:42 PM on September 14, 2018 [5 favorites]

The thing is, the DSA's electoral strength is intensive organizing and voter engagement, so they can do well in communities where they have a lot of members. But mainstream Democrats have their own army of electoral organizers, which at this point is largely made up of members of public-sector unions, as well as middle-aged-to-elderly women. (There is a lot of overlap between the women who run Democratic canvasses and the women who organize meal trains for sick parishioners at the local Methodist church. They're people who quietly get shit done and whose invisible, uncompensated labor makes the world go round.) And in most communities, there are going to be more public-sector workers and older women who get shit done than there are DSA members. If they're going to upset mainstream Democrats for state-wide offices, the DSA is going to have to expand their organizing reach by a lot, both geographically and demographically. And I think that's a tall order, although stranger things have happened. But as the NY elections show, they can make a difference without winning statewide elections. I'm not sure that's the best way to gauge the DSA's success. They've changed the conversation in New York even if they didn't oust Cuomo.

I think there are class, regional, and other biases that cause the media to focus disproportionately on the DSA people, rather than the kind of people who organize for other Democratic candidates. But that's probably not going to change, and I'm not going to waste energy getting angry about it.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:28 AM on September 15, 2018 [2 favorites]

I find it notable that we've all come to take it as given that leftist insurgents are going to outperform polling, to the point that when Nixon's final result was "only" a 9-point swing in her favor it was seen as a disappointment.
posted by contraption at 8:36 AM on September 15, 2018 [5 favorites]

The Democratic Party Machine Won the Battle, but It Won't Win the War - Paul Blest, Splinter

But just as important as the more high-profile victories are these state legislative races, which is where and how sustained political power is built. These are the politicians—especially the younger candidates—who are going to lead the New York Democrats in the future, when there’s no longer a man named Cuomo living in the governor’s mansion. The governor’s institutionally conservative machine might have won the battle, but the war is far from over.

And while Nixon’s showing was admittedly disappointing ... her campaign did have some success. Not only did Cuomo move to the left on several issues to try to placate dissatisfied Democrats ahead of the primary, but Nixon’s repeatedly hammering Cuomo on the IDC might very well have been the push liberals needed to dump its members like Klein and Tony Avella, who both won primary challenges four years ago.

Will Cuomo’s gestures toward progressive policy turn out to be just lip service? Judging from past experience, probably. But the left is in a stronger position to hold Cuomo accountable at a closer range now. Progressive challengers—and the voters who backed them—resoundingly swept the worst turncoat Democrats out of office. So while the top of the ballot was disappointing for the progressive left, there’s good reason to be optimistic—this is only just the beginning.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:28 AM on September 15, 2018 [2 favorites]

Now to take on the anti-democratic NY Democratic Party
posted by The Whelk at 2:45 PM on September 15, 2018 [4 favorites]

I remember earlier in the summer, there was talk of Nixon running for a safe Assembly seat in order to get her out of the governor's race on the WFP line. Is there anything to that?
posted by Chrysostom at 8:07 PM on September 16, 2018

A brief overview

No decision has been made- Rep. Deborah Glick was *stunned* at the news in July but more than one person I talked who was involved in politics in the 66th called her "out of touch".
posted by The Whelk at 9:50 PM on September 16, 2018 [1 favorite]

The Reason Julia Salazar Won (The Nation)

Tl;Dr “My take on the Salazar campaign: 1,883 volunteers signed up for 4,663 canvassing shifts, knocked on over 120,000 doors and talked to over 10,000 voters. That's how you win an election.”
posted by The Whelk at 11:35 AM on September 18, 2018 [4 favorites]

Valesky [IDC Fake Dem] concedes as May [True Blue Dem] wins 53rd State Senate Democratic primary

Long time state senator Dave Valesky was officially defeated as absentee ballots were counted in the 53rd State Senate Democratic primary.

The incumbent finished 606 votes behind Rachel May last Thursday.

Onondaga County officials say he didn't gain any votes in the absentee ballot process. Valesky's camp would not concede until all of the votes were counted. [...]

Valesky will still be on the ballot in November, on the Independence Party line.

posted by melissasaurus at 5:53 AM on September 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

Yay, I did some postcards to voters for May.

Julia Salazar Is Just The Begninig (Daily News)
posted by The Whelk at 10:23 AM on September 21, 2018

There is No Great Socialist Ferment in the Democratic Party

But one thing Andrew Cuomo pointed out is that he won the district that Ocasio-Cortez will now represent in Congress by an overwhelming margin. So, on paper, those two outcomes don’t seem congruous. There is this energised minority that wants a fundamental change in the party’s direction. That consists of these DSA people, maybe people who are just more broadly under the progressive banner, who were mobilised by Bernie Sanders. That is an active and significant wing, but these people are a minority. Ocasio-Cortez won because she did well with high-information voters who know the obscure schedules of New York’s primary elections. In certain low-turnout races, yes, the highly ideological, energised cohort within the party can make a tangible electoral difference. But all bets are off when you have a much higher-turnout contest like the Cuomo primary from last week.

For all the hype about how energised the insurgent wing of the Democratic Party supposedly is, only two incumbents in the House of Representatives have been unseated by challengers, zero Democratic senators have been unseated and zero Democratic governors have been unseated. Contrast that with, for example, 2010, when you had the Tea Party wave in the Republican Party – the incumbents this year have been on much firmer ground in the Democratic Party. As interesting as it is for people writing thinkpieces to suppose that there is this great swirl of ideological ferment in the Democratic Party, for the most part, the ideology is pretty static.

posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 3:28 PM on September 23, 2018

That article is spinning pretty hard. First we weren't to be taken seriously because we hadn't gotten any electoral results. Then we had "only" been successful in winning at the statehouse level without any national seats to our name, now we've "only" unseated one of the most powerful Dems in the House without taking any Senate seats. They may have a point about the ideology and priorities of the DNC and party establishment remaining pretty rigid so far, but to argue against the existence of a substantial movement seems pretty deliberately blinkered in the face of ballooning DSA membership, mounting success at the ballot box, and unprecedented support for socialism and distrust of capitalism in polls of the general population.

I'm not familiar with the author or with spiked, but I gather they're more or less a libertarian publication? That seems about right.
posted by contraption at 5:53 PM on September 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

I guess we had one self-identified democratic socialist and one Liz Warren in the Senate at the beginning of this new push, so it would be fair to say that 2 of the 49 Dem-caucusing seats were held by the "insurgent" wing already, but since we haven't had any incumbent Senators successfully primaried from the left by socialists (yet) it means the whole thing is just a flash in the pan.
posted by contraption at 6:01 PM on September 23, 2018

I think it can be simultaneously true that the party is moving left as a whole, but it's still a big tent, and there has not been a wholesale makeover in the DSA mold. More evolution than revolution.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:30 PM on September 23, 2018