ANGER IS AN ENERGY
November 5, 2018 9:00 PM Subscribe
Today is Election Day in the United States.
In the wake of the most disastrous election in United States history, and after nearly two years of unfettered corruption and a dangerous trend towards strongman rule (see Metafilter potus45 threads passim), the American people now have their last best chance to halt Trump's incipient fascism by capturing at least one chamber of Congress. Democrats' chances look strong in the House, as well in the state races, but dicey in the Senate.
***
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Buoyed by historically low presidential approval ratings, successful 2017 state elections in Virginia and New Jersey, and a string of surprise victories in special elections, the Democrats are feeling good (well, as good as Dems ever feel) about getting at least the net 23 pick-ups they need to take control of the House. Contesting far more seats than usual, holding an substantial 8.5 point advantage on the generic ballot average, and with eye-popping amounts of small dollar donations flowing in, the Democrats may have what it takes to finally wash over the gerrymandering wall the GOP erected in 2010.
What do the prognosticators say? Unlike in some past years, they're broadly in agreement - Democrats are likely to get maybe about 35 seats. The GOP still has a "systematic polling error" chance to hang on to control, though - and we all remember the last time one of those errors happened. By the same token, that same kind of error in Democrats' favor could mean a gain of 50 or more. And a lot of polled races have been within a few points, making it easy to imagine a very long night for Dems, or conversely a total blowout. Although maybe we were starting to see a late break to the left?
Predictions:
-- A lot of signs that districts are acting more like 2012 (reverting to the mean) than 2016.
-- College-educated suburbanites (especially women) seem to be going Dem hard.
-- This will be 1992 redux, as another "Year of the Woman" looks to have substantial gains in seats held by women.
-- Conventional wisdom has it that Dems need 7-8 points on the generic ballot to be favored, but maybe -- due to retirements and the PA redistricting - it's lower than that now?
***
SENATE
Things almost look mirror-image in the Senate, where Democrats are facing the downside of having overperformed in red states back in 2012. Dems saw some late improvement in polls, but are still facing long odds at an actual 51-49 majority. A 50-50 tie is more within reach, and would likely result in a power-sharing agreement on committees, but VP Pence would break ties, and both parties would be pushing hard to have someone (Murkowski and the Dems? Manchin and the GOP?) cross the aisle and caucus with them.
Dems do have good chances of pickups in Arizona and Nevada and outside shots in Tennessee and Texas (home of Betomania), not to mention the possibility of a runoff in Mississippi. At the same time, they seem to be down in North Dakota and are neck and neck in Florida, Missouri, and Indiana, and not totally out of the woods in Montana and...New Jersey?!?
Predictions:
GOVERNORS
Democrats have almost nowhere to go but up, currently controlling only 16 states. They look primed to make substantial gains, though. And that's important long-term, because in many states the governor has a role in redistricting and could block 2010-style gerrymanders.
Cook Political has *ten* GOP-held governor seats that are rated Tossup. Some races of interest:
DOWNBALLOT
Not unlike the governor races, Democrats are currently at a low point lower down the ballot, but are poised to take control in a number of state legislatures and pick up important constitutional offices like attorney general and secretary of state. And there are multiple important ballot initiatives in many states, ranging from minimum wage increases to non-partisan redistricting to voting rights (Florida Amendment 4!).
-- Flippable guide to key downballot races.
-- Vox on legislatures that might flip.
-- Governing Magazine with: important ballot measures, attorney general race ratings, secretary of state race ratings, and legislative house race ratings.
-- Daily Kos Elections guides to key ballot measures and state legislatures.
-- Where could Dems pick up a legislative supermajority or break a GOP one? Check it out here (but be prepared for eyestrain).
-- Ballotpedia vulnerable trifectas (gov + both leg houses).
***
MORE READING & STUFF TO CHECK OUT
-- NBC: How we call races on Election Night.
-- Will youth voting be up? Probably!
-- The NBC briefing book. Lots of info on House/Senate/governor races.
-- 18 moments that shaped the midterms.
-- Maybe a good bit of "polling error" is really late movement in races.
-- Early voting is way up versus 2014 (admittedly, a low bar). Should you pay attention to early voting numbers? There's probably *some* value, but basically, unless it is Nevada and you are listening to Jon Ralston (or maybe Florida and Steve Schale), it probably isn't clear what it means.
-- Are the polling misses in 2016 what should be guiding our expectations, or the Virginia 2017 one?
-- In-depth TPM series on voting suppression.
-- Lots of races are likely to go to overtime, due to slow counting of ballots or runoffs. We may not know control of *either* chamber for days or even weeks.
-- It's hard to believe anyone is undecided, but polls still show a fair number of people are. Vox talks to a few of them.
-- How exit polls work, and how they're trying to fix them.
-- Congressional elections keep getting more closely correlated with presidential vote.
-- Steve Kornacki and his fabulous maps.
-- The infamous NYT needle is back. Nate Cohn tries to convince you he's not a monster for creating it.
-- Congress consistently gauges public opinion as being considerably to the right of what it actually is.
***
PLACES TO WATCH & THINGS TO WATCH FOR
-- Daniel Nichanian's list of key races is invaluable. From Senate down to mayor and county executives.
-- Apple News will have a nice-looking Election Night information channel.
-- 538 what to watch every hour.
-- Early races to watch (I'd add NJ-03 and NJ-07).
-- Or maybe these districts, from Slate?
-- 9 types of districts to watch.
-- Bloomberg reporting page, looks kind of nifty.
-- HuffPost results page has a nice race tagger, so you can watch some key races easily.
-- Daily Kos Elections resources:
-- How to plan your *entire* Election Day.
***
FINAL NOTE
Please vote. Make sure your friends do, too. We're all counting on you.
An Election Day thread will probably be a little bit more live-bloggy than the usual politics threads, but as always, please consider MeFi chat and the unofficial PoliticsFilter Slack for serious chatting, the current regular politics thread for non-Election Day items, the current MetaTalk venting thread for catharsis and sympathizing, and funding the site if you're able. Also, for the sake of our beleaguered mods, please keep in mind the MetaTalk on expectations about U.S. political discussion on MetaFilter.
In the wake of the most disastrous election in United States history, and after nearly two years of unfettered corruption and a dangerous trend towards strongman rule (see Metafilter potus45 threads passim), the American people now have their last best chance to halt Trump's incipient fascism by capturing at least one chamber of Congress. Democrats' chances look strong in the House, as well in the state races, but dicey in the Senate.
***
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Buoyed by historically low presidential approval ratings, successful 2017 state elections in Virginia and New Jersey, and a string of surprise victories in special elections, the Democrats are feeling good (well, as good as Dems ever feel) about getting at least the net 23 pick-ups they need to take control of the House. Contesting far more seats than usual, holding an substantial 8.5 point advantage on the generic ballot average, and with eye-popping amounts of small dollar donations flowing in, the Democrats may have what it takes to finally wash over the gerrymandering wall the GOP erected in 2010.
What do the prognosticators say? Unlike in some past years, they're broadly in agreement - Democrats are likely to get maybe about 35 seats. The GOP still has a "systematic polling error" chance to hang on to control, though - and we all remember the last time one of those errors happened. By the same token, that same kind of error in Democrats' favor could mean a gain of 50 or more. And a lot of polled races have been within a few points, making it easy to imagine a very long night for Dems, or conversely a total blowout. Although maybe we were starting to see a late break to the left?
Predictions:
-- 538: Dems are "pretty clear favorites." Odds of control: 80.0%/87.4%/84.1%, depending on model. Median result of 233 seats.More House stuff:
-- Daily Kos Elections: Pickup of ~ 30 seats.
-- Cook: Pickup of 20-45 seats, most likely 30-40.
-- The Crosstab: 79% chance of Dem control, 229 seats most likely.
-- Crystal Ball: Pickup of ~ 34 seats.
-- The Economist: 86% chance of control, 229 seats most likely.
-- Optimus/DDHQ: 94.5% chance of Dem control.
-- YouGov: Dems with 225 seats.
-- A lot of signs that districts are acting more like 2012 (reverting to the mean) than 2016.
-- College-educated suburbanites (especially women) seem to be going Dem hard.
-- This will be 1992 redux, as another "Year of the Woman" looks to have substantial gains in seats held by women.
-- Conventional wisdom has it that Dems need 7-8 points on the generic ballot to be favored, but maybe -- due to retirements and the PA redistricting - it's lower than that now?
***
SENATE
Things almost look mirror-image in the Senate, where Democrats are facing the downside of having overperformed in red states back in 2012. Dems saw some late improvement in polls, but are still facing long odds at an actual 51-49 majority. A 50-50 tie is more within reach, and would likely result in a power-sharing agreement on committees, but VP Pence would break ties, and both parties would be pushing hard to have someone (Murkowski and the Dems? Manchin and the GOP?) cross the aisle and caucus with them.
Dems do have good chances of pickups in Arizona and Nevada and outside shots in Tennessee and Texas (home of Betomania), not to mention the possibility of a runoff in Mississippi. At the same time, they seem to be down in North Dakota and are neck and neck in Florida, Missouri, and Indiana, and not totally out of the woods in Montana and...New Jersey?!?
Predictions:
-- 538: 17.6%/16.4%/15.5% chance of control, depending on the model. Median result of no net change in seats. | More.***
-- Daily Kos Elections: No net change in seats.
-- David Byler/Weekly Standard: 15.4% chance of control. Median result of +1 R seat.
-- Crystal Ball: Net +1 R.
GOVERNORS
Democrats have almost nowhere to go but up, currently controlling only 16 states. They look primed to make substantial gains, though. And that's important long-term, because in many states the governor has a role in redistricting and could block 2010-style gerrymanders.
Cook Political has *ten* GOP-held governor seats that are rated Tossup. Some races of interest:
* Florida: New progressive hero Andrew Gillum versus really surprisingly racist Republican Ron DeSantis. Gillum would be Florida's first black governor.Predictions:
* Georgia: Democrat Stacy Abrams versus perhaps the nation's worst vote suppressor, Republican Brian Kemp. This one will likely go to overtime, due to a runoff law designed to keep African-Americans out of office.
* Kansas: Democrat Laura Kelly versus the other big vote suppressor, Kris Kobach. Can Kansas break away from the disastrous Brownback years?
* Ohio: Dem Rich Cordray appears to have a slim lead over Republican Mike DeWine. Critical seat to preventing gerrymandering.
* South Dakota: Can Dem Billie Sutton become the first Democrat to hold this office since the 70s? He's been tied with Republican Kristi Noem in polling.
-- 538: Favored in 5 pickups, tossup in 4 more. | More.***
-- Cook: 4-10 Dem pickups, mostly likely 6-8.
-- Daily Kos Elections: Pickup of about 10 seats.
-- Crystal Ball: Pickup of about 10 seats.
-- Governing Magazine: 7-10 seat pickup.
DOWNBALLOT
Not unlike the governor races, Democrats are currently at a low point lower down the ballot, but are poised to take control in a number of state legislatures and pick up important constitutional offices like attorney general and secretary of state. And there are multiple important ballot initiatives in many states, ranging from minimum wage increases to non-partisan redistricting to voting rights (Florida Amendment 4!).
-- Flippable guide to key downballot races.
-- Vox on legislatures that might flip.
-- Governing Magazine with: important ballot measures, attorney general race ratings, secretary of state race ratings, and legislative house race ratings.
-- Daily Kos Elections guides to key ballot measures and state legislatures.
-- Where could Dems pick up a legislative supermajority or break a GOP one? Check it out here (but be prepared for eyestrain).
-- Ballotpedia vulnerable trifectas (gov + both leg houses).
***
MORE READING & STUFF TO CHECK OUT
-- NBC: How we call races on Election Night.
-- Will youth voting be up? Probably!
-- The NBC briefing book. Lots of info on House/Senate/governor races.
-- 18 moments that shaped the midterms.
-- Maybe a good bit of "polling error" is really late movement in races.
-- Early voting is way up versus 2014 (admittedly, a low bar). Should you pay attention to early voting numbers? There's probably *some* value, but basically, unless it is Nevada and you are listening to Jon Ralston (or maybe Florida and Steve Schale), it probably isn't clear what it means.
-- Are the polling misses in 2016 what should be guiding our expectations, or the Virginia 2017 one?
-- In-depth TPM series on voting suppression.
-- Lots of races are likely to go to overtime, due to slow counting of ballots or runoffs. We may not know control of *either* chamber for days or even weeks.
-- It's hard to believe anyone is undecided, but polls still show a fair number of people are. Vox talks to a few of them.
-- How exit polls work, and how they're trying to fix them.
-- Congressional elections keep getting more closely correlated with presidential vote.
-- Steve Kornacki and his fabulous maps.
-- The infamous NYT needle is back. Nate Cohn tries to convince you he's not a monster for creating it.
-- Congress consistently gauges public opinion as being considerably to the right of what it actually is.
***
PLACES TO WATCH & THINGS TO WATCH FOR
-- Daniel Nichanian's list of key races is invaluable. From Senate down to mayor and county executives.
-- Apple News will have a nice-looking Election Night information channel.
-- 538 what to watch every hour.
-- Early races to watch (I'd add NJ-03 and NJ-07).
-- Or maybe these districts, from Slate?
-- 9 types of districts to watch.
-- Bloomberg reporting page, looks kind of nifty.
-- HuffPost results page has a nice race tagger, so you can watch some key races easily.
-- Daily Kos Elections resources:
-- Key race tracker-- Want to try and predict a race from two precincts reporting (hint: don't do that)? Then check out how hard it is to do that, by state - some states are pretty homogeneous, and some aren't.
-- Poll closing times map
-- Hour by hour things to watch
-- Want to *really* overthink things? You can look at what Dem benchmarks are for *each county.*
-- How to plan your *entire* Election Day.
***
FINAL NOTE
Please vote. Make sure your friends do, too. We're all counting on you.
An Election Day thread will probably be a little bit more live-bloggy than the usual politics threads, but as always, please consider MeFi chat and the unofficial PoliticsFilter Slack for serious chatting, the current regular politics thread for non-Election Day items, the current MetaTalk venting thread for catharsis and sympathizing, and funding the site if you're able. Also, for the sake of our beleaguered mods, please keep in mind the MetaTalk on expectations about U.S. political discussion on MetaFilter.
Thank you, Chrysostom, your contributions have been so valuable. This going to be one long goddamn day.
posted by msali at 9:04 PM on November 5, 2018 [108 favorites]
posted by msali at 9:04 PM on November 5, 2018 [108 favorites]
Most of the above proposals have not been polled, but Michigan's has, and looks like it should pass easily.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 PM on November 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 PM on November 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
And I should have mentioned this but - ENORMOUS thanks to anyone who helped a campaign. Financially, phone or text banking, canvassing - this is how we win it back.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2018 [73 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2018 [73 favorites]
(amused by the title reference, and boy do I love the song, but isn't our boy Mr. Lydon on record as a red-hat fella? or am I confusticated and twitterpated?)
posted by mwhybark at 9:15 PM on November 5, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by mwhybark at 9:15 PM on November 5, 2018 [9 favorites]
My mantra for the past several days has been:
No matter what happens Tuesday night, good news or bad, Wednesday morning I will wake up and keep fighting.
Never stop, my dear Mefites!
posted by Tsuga at 9:15 PM on November 5, 2018 [85 favorites]
No matter what happens Tuesday night, good news or bad, Wednesday morning I will wake up and keep fighting.
Never stop, my dear Mefites!
posted by Tsuga at 9:15 PM on November 5, 2018 [85 favorites]
Also on the ballot: health care.
Three statesâID, NE, and UTâhave referenda on the ballot to expand Medicaid, which could provide health insurance to a combined 325,000 people (I've been texting Idaho Medicaid a bunch, and the people on my list have been super nice and quite supportive). In addition, 14 states are electing governors and have not expanded Medicaid. Democratic wins in those states could lead to medicaid expansion, leading to coverage for up to 2.4 million more people.
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on November 5, 2018 [21 favorites]
Three statesâID, NE, and UTâhave referenda on the ballot to expand Medicaid, which could provide health insurance to a combined 325,000 people (I've been texting Idaho Medicaid a bunch, and the people on my list have been super nice and quite supportive). In addition, 14 states are electing governors and have not expanded Medicaid. Democratic wins in those states could lead to medicaid expansion, leading to coverage for up to 2.4 million more people.
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on November 5, 2018 [21 favorites]
May the road rise with you! [Oblique musical link for some background]. Will be watching nervously from this side of the Atlantic.
posted by rongorongo at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2018 [9 favorites]
I believe the ID and UT Medicaid referenda are considered likely to pass, too. Idaho's outgoing GOP governor backed it the other day.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 5, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 5, 2018 [7 favorites]
I probably should have detailed ballot proposals more in the FPP, but I was starting to flag, tbh.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 5, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 5, 2018 [10 favorites]
I probably should have detailed ballot proposals more in the FPP, but I was starting to flag, tbh.
This is one hell of a post, man. Don't worry about it. Thanks for doing this!
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:37 PM on November 5, 2018 [71 favorites]
This is one hell of a post, man. Don't worry about it. Thanks for doing this!
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:37 PM on November 5, 2018 [71 favorites]
Mark Tuesday, November 6 down on your calendar like you're Brett Kavanaugh planning to get shit faced. Because Tuesday is win or go home for democracy
posted by growabrain at 9:45 PM on November 5, 2018 [30 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 9:45 PM on November 5, 2018 [30 favorites]
Canadian here, would just like to wish all you fine, fine people on this board only the best of luck with tomorrow's election.
And yes, I am stressed also, why do you ask?
Take care, eh.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 9:48 PM on November 5, 2018 [64 favorites]
And yes, I am stressed also, why do you ask?
Take care, eh.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 9:48 PM on November 5, 2018 [64 favorites]
In state politics, New York Democrats just might be able to take control of the State Senate tomorrow. That would be really nice. Cuomo wouldn't be able to use the Republican Senate as a way to talk like a progressive while governing like a moderate anymore.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:50 PM on November 5, 2018 [41 favorites]
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:50 PM on November 5, 2018 [41 favorites]
I thought rongorongo had scooped me, but that link appears to be geofenced so I get to post one for those in (at least!) the US. Funny that I had just been thinking of this song last week.
posted by rhizome at 9:52 PM on November 5, 2018
posted by rhizome at 9:52 PM on November 5, 2018
Long "final thoughts" writeup from Elliott (The Crosstab) Morris.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:53 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:53 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
That would sure be refreshing, showbiz_liz! A lot of people I know have been volunteering for Andrew Gounardes (who has the potential to unseat Brooklyn's lone Republican state senator, Marty Golden (who killed a woman with his car, among other alarming things)). I also enjoyed this piece about Arab and Muslim voters organizing for Gounardes.
posted by ferret branca at 9:54 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by ferret branca at 9:54 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
On my way home from class tonight I was trying to decide if the better strategy is to get shitfaced tomorrow...or tonight, and just be hungover all day.
posted by rhizome at 9:55 PM on November 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by rhizome at 9:55 PM on November 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
NY Senate is rated either Lean D or Likely D, depending who you ask.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:57 PM on November 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:57 PM on November 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Brooklyn's lone Republican state senator, Marty Golden (who killed a woman with his car, among other alarming things)
That guy was also the final holdout who allowed all the school zone speed cameras in NYC to be shut off this summer, and who was then discovered to have racked up like a dozen speed camera tickets in about four years. And, yeah, he once killed a woman with his car. He is... not strong on traffic safety, let's say.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:11 PM on November 5, 2018 [36 favorites]
That guy was also the final holdout who allowed all the school zone speed cameras in NYC to be shut off this summer, and who was then discovered to have racked up like a dozen speed camera tickets in about four years. And, yeah, he once killed a woman with his car. He is... not strong on traffic safety, let's say.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:11 PM on November 5, 2018 [36 favorites]
I'm not from Los Angeles, but I'd note that they have a proposal to amend it's charter to allow it to create a public bank that I think could set an example for other cities. It won't actually create a bank, because they need changes in state law and possible federal law changes (and approval), and a bunch of funding (billions apparently)... but having it on the ballot in the biggest city in California will put the issue in the minds of a lot of people, and Gavin Newsom is likely to be the next governor, and is campaigning on the creation of a state public bank for California, which is perhaps more likely to happen.
There have been at least three posts this year about public banks 1 2 3 so I won't rehash that, but I'm paying attention.
posted by gryftir at 10:16 PM on November 5, 2018 [38 favorites]
There have been at least three posts this year about public banks 1 2 3 so I won't rehash that, but I'm paying attention.
posted by gryftir at 10:16 PM on November 5, 2018 [38 favorites]
STAR voting (previously) was developed by Oregon academics, and fittingly Lane County, Oregon has a ballot measure to adopt its use. STAR advocates Equal.vote plan to propose measures in other Oregon counties as well.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:18 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:18 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
Iâm shocked I didnât read this on the blue before, probably because it came before the horror truly set in.
âAmerica is neither happy or good, but if it stops believing it can be, the whole world is going to sufferâ
British journalist Laurie Penny as Cassandra at the DNC before the 2016 election.
posted by Wilder at 10:24 PM on November 5, 2018 [42 favorites]
âAmerica is neither happy or good, but if it stops believing it can be, the whole world is going to sufferâ
British journalist Laurie Penny as Cassandra at the DNC before the 2016 election.
posted by Wilder at 10:24 PM on November 5, 2018 [42 favorites]
Holy cow, Chrysostom - this is an AWESOME post. THANK YOU!
(But you didn't self-link to the amazing Official Chrysostom election tracking spreadsheet! It's fabulous! Go look, everyone!)
I, personally, am making a list of campaigns I connected with - anyone I wrote postcards for, or gave money to, or phonebanked for - along with watching returns for my own local races.
And I'd really like to extend my thanks to everyone who contributed ANYTHING to this election - whether it was getting yourself to the polls and voting, or helping get others to the polls, or writing postcards, or text banking, or phone banking, or registering voters, or canvassing, or donating money, or bringing food to campaign workers, or talking to friends or family or co-workers about the candidates and the issues. Every action makes a difference. Every drop is part of the wave.
Thank you.
posted by kristi at 10:29 PM on November 5, 2018 [57 favorites]
(But you didn't self-link to the amazing Official Chrysostom election tracking spreadsheet! It's fabulous! Go look, everyone!)
I, personally, am making a list of campaigns I connected with - anyone I wrote postcards for, or gave money to, or phonebanked for - along with watching returns for my own local races.
And I'd really like to extend my thanks to everyone who contributed ANYTHING to this election - whether it was getting yourself to the polls and voting, or helping get others to the polls, or writing postcards, or text banking, or phone banking, or registering voters, or canvassing, or donating money, or bringing food to campaign workers, or talking to friends or family or co-workers about the candidates and the issues. Every action makes a difference. Every drop is part of the wave.
Thank you.
posted by kristi at 10:29 PM on November 5, 2018 [57 favorites]
Don DeLillo's not sure we can recover
posted by chavenet at 10:58 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 10:58 PM on November 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
Because Politico is poison here is a better summary from Texas Monthly on the clickbait headline, "Beto Blew It". tl:dr -- Beto did not hire consultants and the usual suspects to run his campaign. Texas Monthly basically, says that Politico is wrong and Beto is making strides because he is not going with a losing script used by Democrats in Texas for decades.
posted by jadepearl at 11:38 PM on November 5, 2018 [39 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 11:38 PM on November 5, 2018 [39 favorites]
One initiative to watch: Washingtonâs I-1631 to impose a carbon fee on our top polluters. Supported by a huge coalition of advocacy groups, non-profits, tribes, groups who support people of color, labor and business. 99% of the money against has been big oil. I may be biased what with it being my main issue this cycle.
posted by R343L at 12:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
posted by R343L at 12:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
Checking in here from the UK. I just want to say good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by faceplantingcheetah at 12:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [114 favorites]
posted by faceplantingcheetah at 12:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [114 favorites]
since the polls open in 2.5h i guess i am not going to bother sleeping but what i really want to do is physically drag all of my low turnout neighborhood neighbors down the block by their ears with chancla menaces
posted by poffin boffin at 12:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by poffin boffin at 12:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Coming in from NZ, again good luck America, and thanks to Chrysostom for this post, and for posting so frequently and deeply on the issues.
Our news is mostly corporate and without Radio NZ we'd know very little of your reality.
posted by unearthed at 12:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Our news is mostly corporate and without Radio NZ we'd know very little of your reality.
posted by unearthed at 12:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Sending good thoughts from Britain too - The Guardian's Jonathan Freedland explains why today matters so much to all us non-Americans. Please God, let it be good news on Wednesday.
posted by Paul Slade at 12:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 12:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted. General reminder: I know we're all on edge, but this thread is not going to be useful for actually checking results/news if we stuff it up early with lots of chat. Please consider actual Chat, or you can, for example, favorite "we're all counting on you"and similar instead of repeating over and over. Thanks, everyone.
posted by taz (staff) at 1:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 1:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Ratfucking is going pretty hard. Border patrol is doing crowd control exercise on election day. In El Paso.
posted by jadepearl at 2:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [45 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 2:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [45 favorites]
Ratfucking is going pretty hard. Border patrol is doing crowd control exercise on election day. In El Paso.
Also between a predominantly Hispanic community and its polling station. Thatâs so brazen Iâm a bit gobsmacked by it.
posted by Happy Dave at 3:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
Also between a predominantly Hispanic community and its polling station. Thatâs so brazen Iâm a bit gobsmacked by it.
posted by Happy Dave at 3:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
As someone who hasn't had cable in decades, and relies on Hulu and Netflix for entertainment, is there some place I can go during the day to stream some good commentary and analysis leading up to tonight? I would have preferred MSNBC, but you have to log in with a provider.
As an aside, thank you to the woman who knocked on my door yesterday, canvassing for Andrew Gillum. I am glad they are taking nothing for granted and seeing boots on the ground at this late stage was wonderful and heartening.
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 3:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
As an aside, thank you to the woman who knocked on my door yesterday, canvassing for Andrew Gillum. I am glad they are taking nothing for granted and seeing boots on the ground at this late stage was wonderful and heartening.
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 3:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Something that makes me really disturbed for the state of our nation is how scared I am these last two elections to have my kids' school serve as a polling place.
But it's time to pack up my treats and go open the bake sale, because fuck them, that's why. They have guns but I have pecan bars and I know who's on the right side of history.
Good luck today, metafilter.
posted by gerstle at 3:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [134 favorites]
But it's time to pack up my treats and go open the bake sale, because fuck them, that's why. They have guns but I have pecan bars and I know who's on the right side of history.
Good luck today, metafilter.
posted by gerstle at 3:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [134 favorites]
It's my birthday today. Yesterday I bought a bunch of food from Costco and invited friends and neighbors to hang out at my house so that a) we can have some community spirit and b) I can be distracted from the news. If any Pittsburgh mefites want dinner and company, please mefi mail me. I have macaroons, wine and a crockpot full of my husband's party meatballs. Kids are welcome.
Also, I bought 1500 'I voted' stickers because the precincts here don't give them out. I'm going to leave rolls with the poll workers in my neighborhood. Stickers for everyone! Let's go vote!
posted by Alison at 3:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [84 favorites]
Also, I bought 1500 'I voted' stickers because the precincts here don't give them out. I'm going to leave rolls with the poll workers in my neighborhood. Stickers for everyone! Let's go vote!
posted by Alison at 3:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [84 favorites]
Voted! Got there at 6:20 and there were ten people in front of me already. Poll workers said there had been people there waiting when they opened at 6 and I know that's kind of unusual. I hope that's a good sign nationally.
posted by dilettante at 3:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by dilettante at 3:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
If you live in an apartment building consider putting up a sign in the entryway or elevator letting folks know itâs Election Day, what times the polls close, and the location of your buildingâs polling site, if there isnât signage already.
If you want something to do while results come in tonight, postcards to voters is writing for the Senate runoff election in MS on Nov 27th.
Thanks to everyone who postcarded and canvassed and phone banked and voted!
posted by melissasaurus at 3:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
If you want something to do while results come in tonight, postcards to voters is writing for the Senate runoff election in MS on Nov 27th.
Thanks to everyone who postcarded and canvassed and phone banked and voted!
posted by melissasaurus at 3:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
Some history from Nikole Hannah-Jones (Twitter thread):
Do you think Fannie Lou Hamer & Medgar Evers had good candidates to vote for? None of the candidates were fighting for them. But they understood if they couldn't & didn't vote, none of the candidates ever would.
posted by neroli at 4:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [71 favorites]
Do you think Fannie Lou Hamer & Medgar Evers had good candidates to vote for? None of the candidates were fighting for them. But they understood if they couldn't & didn't vote, none of the candidates ever would.
posted by neroli at 4:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [71 favorites]
When I first got together with my partner it was a few months before the 2016 election and so we didn't discuss politics a ton because Trump is crazy and we're voting for Hillary and everything is going to be great. Check please.
Then the election happened and I was despondent, tearful, scared, etc- all the feelings you probably had. He didn't understand it, he thought I was overreacting. He was born and raised in a reddish area with friends, coworkers and family members ranging mostly from red to apathetic, though he did vote for Hillary. Over the past two years things have been rocky for various reasons and politics was always a part of that. Although on the whole he agreed things were messed up, he definitely thought I spent too much time thinking, reading, and worrying. He thought I was exaggerating and that the Russia stuff sounded farfetched and implausible. When I first used the word "concentration camps" he got upset- come on, for fucks sake, that would never happen here. Eventually I decided it was best for us not to talk about these things. I wondered whether we were too different and whether this would ultimately pull us apart. When the border separation started, I went to a protest alone and didn't even tell him about it until after I came home.
To my surprise, he was supportive. I don't know how or when exactly things changed. I think he started listening to some good podcasts that really deepened his understanding- and rage. I think the border separation was the catalyst for him as it was for many people. Soon after, he apologized to me for all the grief and pushback about politics he'd been giving me up until that point. He watched parts of the Kavanaugh hearing with me and now loves Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.
I told him a few weeks ago that I was planning to be off work today and spend it volunteering. Maybe a week ago he told me he wanted to do the same. A couple days ago he texted me that he just found out that the most effective way to drive voter turnout is to talk to your own friends and family. (Yes!!) He tells me that he has compiled a long list of apathetic friends and family members who don't vote, and is planning to call each and every one of them to tell them why he is voting, and why he hopes they do too. Last update, he's convinced at least two non-voters to go out and vote. He's also off work today, and I think offering to give a ride to any of these people on his list who need it.
Even when people push back, many of them are listening. Sometimes it takes a while. Never give up.
posted by robotdevil at 4:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [166 favorites]
Then the election happened and I was despondent, tearful, scared, etc- all the feelings you probably had. He didn't understand it, he thought I was overreacting. He was born and raised in a reddish area with friends, coworkers and family members ranging mostly from red to apathetic, though he did vote for Hillary. Over the past two years things have been rocky for various reasons and politics was always a part of that. Although on the whole he agreed things were messed up, he definitely thought I spent too much time thinking, reading, and worrying. He thought I was exaggerating and that the Russia stuff sounded farfetched and implausible. When I first used the word "concentration camps" he got upset- come on, for fucks sake, that would never happen here. Eventually I decided it was best for us not to talk about these things. I wondered whether we were too different and whether this would ultimately pull us apart. When the border separation started, I went to a protest alone and didn't even tell him about it until after I came home.
To my surprise, he was supportive. I don't know how or when exactly things changed. I think he started listening to some good podcasts that really deepened his understanding- and rage. I think the border separation was the catalyst for him as it was for many people. Soon after, he apologized to me for all the grief and pushback about politics he'd been giving me up until that point. He watched parts of the Kavanaugh hearing with me and now loves Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.
I told him a few weeks ago that I was planning to be off work today and spend it volunteering. Maybe a week ago he told me he wanted to do the same. A couple days ago he texted me that he just found out that the most effective way to drive voter turnout is to talk to your own friends and family. (Yes!!) He tells me that he has compiled a long list of apathetic friends and family members who don't vote, and is planning to call each and every one of them to tell them why he is voting, and why he hopes they do too. Last update, he's convinced at least two non-voters to go out and vote. He's also off work today, and I think offering to give a ride to any of these people on his list who need it.
Even when people push back, many of them are listening. Sometimes it takes a while. Never give up.
posted by robotdevil at 4:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [166 favorites]
Please consider actual Chat
Chat is full.
(or possibly the "You can't join room Election, you have insufficient rights" message is just weirdly perspicacious software...)
posted by pompomtom at 4:04 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Chat is full.
(or possibly the "You can't join room Election, you have insufficient rights" message is just weirdly perspicacious software...)
posted by pompomtom at 4:04 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Hey yâall the politics slack chat is where itâs at.
posted by nikaspark at 4:12 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by nikaspark at 4:12 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
oooooh goodness today is here. I'm just getting up at 6AM to drop off my yard signs at a local polling place. After than I'm meeting friends at 7AM to hold a banner for GO VOTE and BETO for SENATE on a major freeway overpass to encourage morning commuters about election day. We are still pushing canvassing and phone banking hard today, but I can't because I think I injured myself over the weekend knocking 250 doors since Thursday. Maybe I'll join a phonebank.
I'm watching a livestream of an attorney out of Dallas who does a lot of voter protection work as I write this. Husband is renting car to drive people to the polls because our car is a small Fiat. And during Early Voting he got so into it he is now helping the people behind it alter the app to help drivers and voters who need rides better. He plans to drive all day over over the city. He trained to be a voting assistant for anyone who needs it (ie. how to use the machines, helping people with mobility issues, he signs a form saying he won't influence their vote).
Our Beto facebook group is helping to coordinate a lot of rides for students registered in other counties (like at parents house). We are trying to drive them all home and back for the day - some as far as 4 hr drives each way. But people seem to be stepping up and offering to drive them. Which makes me want to start crying if I think about it too long. I think I might stand outside grocery stores later instead of canvassing and just hand out Beto cards with voter info and pull up people's polling places if they want. Some friends did this and found it more effective than canvassing. It's really amazing how friendly people are to you when you have a Beto shirt on these last few days.
There are some places that are Early Voting places and not Election Day polling places - 19 around town - some of us are going to hang out there just in case voters come by so we can help them find their correct polling place. Our county clerk likes to do that - change peoples polling places every election.
There are reporters from all over the world here (I'm in Houston but I think there are people from elsewhere all over the state). I missed an interview with some from Belgium I was asked to be a part of. I had a 2 hour interview with Buzzfeed yesterday hopefully I didn't say anything too goofy I am so sleep deprived.
That's it! Have a great day everyone.
posted by dog food sugar at 4:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [103 favorites]
I'm watching a livestream of an attorney out of Dallas who does a lot of voter protection work as I write this. Husband is renting car to drive people to the polls because our car is a small Fiat. And during Early Voting he got so into it he is now helping the people behind it alter the app to help drivers and voters who need rides better. He plans to drive all day over over the city. He trained to be a voting assistant for anyone who needs it (ie. how to use the machines, helping people with mobility issues, he signs a form saying he won't influence their vote).
Our Beto facebook group is helping to coordinate a lot of rides for students registered in other counties (like at parents house). We are trying to drive them all home and back for the day - some as far as 4 hr drives each way. But people seem to be stepping up and offering to drive them. Which makes me want to start crying if I think about it too long. I think I might stand outside grocery stores later instead of canvassing and just hand out Beto cards with voter info and pull up people's polling places if they want. Some friends did this and found it more effective than canvassing. It's really amazing how friendly people are to you when you have a Beto shirt on these last few days.
There are some places that are Early Voting places and not Election Day polling places - 19 around town - some of us are going to hang out there just in case voters come by so we can help them find their correct polling place. Our county clerk likes to do that - change peoples polling places every election.
There are reporters from all over the world here (I'm in Houston but I think there are people from elsewhere all over the state). I missed an interview with some from Belgium I was asked to be a part of. I had a 2 hour interview with Buzzfeed yesterday hopefully I didn't say anything too goofy I am so sleep deprived.
That's it! Have a great day everyone.
posted by dog food sugar at 4:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [103 favorites]
Got up early to vote, no lines, was back home before 7 AM. This is the first time in my adult life (and I'm 50!) that I live in a voting precinct that will vote blue.
posted by COD at 4:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by COD at 4:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Not to be too eponysterical, but my US polling address is still in Oakland, where a particular progressive ticket seems to have been heavily marketed through rave-flyer handouts as The Oakland guild of Space Cat Voters.
You can read more about them here, if you're so inclined.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
You can read more about them here, if you're so inclined.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
If you live in an apartment building consider putting up a sign in the entryway or elevator letting folks know itâs Election Day, what times the polls close, and the location of your buildingâs polling site, if there isnât signage already.
Uhh this is a great idea I can't believe I didn't think of, thanks melissasaurus. As soon as I read that I jumped into action and made signs saying where the polling place was, the hours, the fact that you can register to vote at the polls, and what you need in order to register. Got them up on each exit door by about 7:15, just in time for people walking dogs and leaving for work- as I was walking my dog around the building I saw four people stop and look.
posted by robotdevil at 4:40 AM on November 6, 2018 [88 favorites]
Uhh this is a great idea I can't believe I didn't think of, thanks melissasaurus. As soon as I read that I jumped into action and made signs saying where the polling place was, the hours, the fact that you can register to vote at the polls, and what you need in order to register. Got them up on each exit door by about 7:15, just in time for people walking dogs and leaving for work- as I was walking my dog around the building I saw four people stop and look.
posted by robotdevil at 4:40 AM on November 6, 2018 [88 favorites]
Please consider actual Chat
Chat is full.
(or possibly the "You can't join room Election, you have insufficient rights" message is just weirdly perspicacious software...)
You can hit ESC to get around that message for now. Hopefully mods will fix?
posted by slipthought at 4:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Chat is full.
(or possibly the "You can't join room Election, you have insufficient rights" message is just weirdly perspicacious software...)
You can hit ESC to get around that message for now. Hopefully mods will fix?
posted by slipthought at 4:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Another one to watch: Question 3 in Massachusetts is a challenge to civil rights protections enacted for transgender people in the state two years ago. Yes on 3 translates into keeping those protections in place.
About to head over to my polling place and Yes the hell out of that question.
posted by Sublimity at 4:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
About to head over to my polling place and Yes the hell out of that question.
posted by Sublimity at 4:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
I probably should have detailed ballot proposals more in the FPP, but I was starting to flag, tbh.
Me too -- flagged your post as fantastic.
posted by Gelatin at 4:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Me too -- flagged your post as fantastic.
posted by Gelatin at 4:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Mod note: Chat should be fixed now, plus also fizz has made a Metatalk post for sharing voting stories.
posted by taz (staff) at 5:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 5:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
My polling place has new machines with a paper ballot. The ballot is then stored in another machine. It didn't really seem much more secure than the old machines, which had paper spools mounted in a case on the machine itself. I did get a sticker, though, which has never happened before.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
"We Have Never Eaten There Again" These people are still scarred from election night 2016âand theyâre not taking any chances.
posted by Faint of Butt at 5:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 5:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
So, lawpeople, that crowd control exercise in Texas: if it can be demonstrated that people were kept from reasonable access to the polls, and that the CBP could have reasonably chosen a different day to conduct the exercise... is that not grounds for a huge lawsuit (that, admittedly, probably wouldn't address the actual election results, but still)?
posted by Rykey at 5:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Rykey at 5:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
President Obama: "The character of this country is on the ballot, who we are is on the ballot ... what kind of politics we expect is on the ballot, how we conduct ourselves is public life is on the ballot, how we treat other people is on the ballot"
Barack Obama makes me feel better.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
Barack Obama makes me feel better.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
Checking in from temporarily red* Wisconsin:
It's a nasty rainy day here, and the lines are longer than 2016. I know this because my ward always has the shorter of the two lines in my polling place, and today it was wrapped around the corner of the hall. I've never seen it wrapped around the corner.
And there's snacks and coffee from the roaster down the road! All sorts of fun.
*Please stand by while we adjust the picture
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
It's a nasty rainy day here, and the lines are longer than 2016. I know this because my ward always has the shorter of the two lines in my polling place, and today it was wrapped around the corner of the hall. I've never seen it wrapped around the corner.
And there's snacks and coffee from the roaster down the road! All sorts of fun.
*Please stand by while we adjust the picture
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
This isn't data or anything like that, but I just want to share my little story here.
I have canvassed in the past and wanted to pitch in this time around. Once the local progressive action group gets your digits, they are *relentless*. Even if there's not an election, they want you to attend strategy meetings, help vet candidates, etc etc. I signed up for a few shifts to knock doors but the overall tenor of the country these past several months got me in a deep depression.
It's something I'm always battling, trying to find my way out of my own head and escape the fog. This summer it got bad. As summer moved to autumn it got worse. Canvassing shifts came and I stayed in bed. The local progressive action group texted me: "Hey, we missed you on Sunday. How about a make-up shift this coming weekend?" Letting them down made me feel even worse. My cats and my jobs were the only things that successfully got me out of bed, and sometimes even not those. To quote Bunk Moreland, shit was fucked.
So I never canvassed. I did manage to donate some money to some campaigns, but basically I was drowning in despair, convinced we had reached the end of democracy, I was a worthless piece of shit, and why even bother anymore.
My best friend in the whole world sort of came to the rescue. Okay, not sort of. He saved my life. All it took was a handful of phone conversations, but boy did I need those. Thanks, John.
Despair about the election was replaced with dread. It's not hopeless, but the inevitability of dirty tricks is going to sabotage everything, right?
And then this morning, I go to my polling place, and it is FUCKING MOBBED. Folks, I've been voting at this (admittedly blue) spot for 11 years, and I have never, ever seen so many people turn out.
Now, it's early. Very early. But I have hope. I think we can do this. Things will be okay. Just maybe the tide is turning? It's a strange feeling, a stirring like a hint of attraction or the sting of hunger, but it's in me and it's growing and it's real.
Anyway, don't forget to do the little things. Call your friends. Vote. Talk to your neighbors. Be human. Be kind. I love you all.
posted by rocketman at 6:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [90 favorites]
I have canvassed in the past and wanted to pitch in this time around. Once the local progressive action group gets your digits, they are *relentless*. Even if there's not an election, they want you to attend strategy meetings, help vet candidates, etc etc. I signed up for a few shifts to knock doors but the overall tenor of the country these past several months got me in a deep depression.
It's something I'm always battling, trying to find my way out of my own head and escape the fog. This summer it got bad. As summer moved to autumn it got worse. Canvassing shifts came and I stayed in bed. The local progressive action group texted me: "Hey, we missed you on Sunday. How about a make-up shift this coming weekend?" Letting them down made me feel even worse. My cats and my jobs were the only things that successfully got me out of bed, and sometimes even not those. To quote Bunk Moreland, shit was fucked.
So I never canvassed. I did manage to donate some money to some campaigns, but basically I was drowning in despair, convinced we had reached the end of democracy, I was a worthless piece of shit, and why even bother anymore.
My best friend in the whole world sort of came to the rescue. Okay, not sort of. He saved my life. All it took was a handful of phone conversations, but boy did I need those. Thanks, John.
Despair about the election was replaced with dread. It's not hopeless, but the inevitability of dirty tricks is going to sabotage everything, right?
And then this morning, I go to my polling place, and it is FUCKING MOBBED. Folks, I've been voting at this (admittedly blue) spot for 11 years, and I have never, ever seen so many people turn out.
Now, it's early. Very early. But I have hope. I think we can do this. Things will be okay. Just maybe the tide is turning? It's a strange feeling, a stirring like a hint of attraction or the sting of hunger, but it's in me and it's growing and it's real.
Anyway, don't forget to do the little things. Call your friends. Vote. Talk to your neighbors. Be human. Be kind. I love you all.
posted by rocketman at 6:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [90 favorites]
Listening to snippets on the radio this morning of the two major parties' leaders making their final appeals I realized that the Democrats' best choice for presidential candidate in 2020 is... Barack Obama.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 6:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Facebook reports here are that turnout all over the city is beyond anything we've seen since 2008. Not expected and probably not planned for. Long lines and long waits.
posted by dilettante at 6:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by dilettante at 6:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Several thousand educators in AZ, from pre-K to community college, have been on tenterhooks waiting for this election. Iâve had several of them independently describe to me that theyâve felt for the past few months âin limboâ, âin a holding patternâ, âwith their life on holdâ, âemotionally numbâ, âjust hunkered downâ, âstuck in neutralâ, âtrying to wait the storm outâ and other similar metaphors.
So many school board and governing board elections today, the results of which which will have direct and almost immediate effect on our jobs and livelihoods. If it goes one way, many of us will simply lose our jobs next year, and the ones remaining will see their compensation and benefits at risk. If it goes the other way, we will be able to pull away from the brink.
This may be the most important election Iâve ever experienced â in terms of direct, personal economic effect to me. And to think that my economic pain is just one small drop in a huge bucket of much more dire consequences to other people if this election doesnât go well...
...just, come on, America.
posted by darkstar at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
So many school board and governing board elections today, the results of which which will have direct and almost immediate effect on our jobs and livelihoods. If it goes one way, many of us will simply lose our jobs next year, and the ones remaining will see their compensation and benefits at risk. If it goes the other way, we will be able to pull away from the brink.
This may be the most important election Iâve ever experienced â in terms of direct, personal economic effect to me. And to think that my economic pain is just one small drop in a huge bucket of much more dire consequences to other people if this election doesnât go well...
...just, come on, America.
posted by darkstar at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
A friend in Eastern CT just texted me that she had to stand in line for 15 minutes at her polling place.
At 6 am.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
At 6 am.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
Since I have had to see this shit in my facebook feed twice in the last few days I fixed it. Feel free to share if you can't stand refusing to shun someone for voting for Steve King or Corey Stewart "being an adult."
posted by phearlez at 6:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by phearlez at 6:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
The weather does actually concern me, there is historical data that shows that bad weather depresses Dem turnout. This is obviously a special situation and I hope we can overcome but still. Fuck you, rain.
posted by lydhre at 6:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by lydhre at 6:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
The friend who said she waited in line for 15 minutes added that "the only other time I've had to wait was 2008, and THIS line was three times longer."
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
I've been reading about vote gagging here and elsewhere, and it seems rather obvious that there's an effort to make voting as difficult as possible. I'm sorry it's this way, there's going to be queues and it's going to be a PITA but you have to do it. In my country it's a tradition to eat a sausage with bread on election day. I will do that and think of America.
This Kemp fellow, in Georgia, regardless of what happens today, he won't face any repercussions for his actions to steal votes, for stealing people's rights. I personally believe that is a serious crime and he should go to prison. If you're looking for electoral fraud, it's there.
posted by adept256 at 6:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
This Kemp fellow, in Georgia, regardless of what happens today, he won't face any repercussions for his actions to steal votes, for stealing people's rights. I personally believe that is a serious crime and he should go to prison. If you're looking for electoral fraud, it's there.
posted by adept256 at 6:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Josh Marshall: Here we are, Folks. Trump: "The Democrat plan would obliterate Obamacare."
posted by PenDevil at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
posted by PenDevil at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
I had to wait like 10-15 min on line at my polling place in Brooklyn where literally every race on the ballot is a foregone conclusion.
Then I walked past another polling place where the line was a full city block long, and a few people thick.
Again, this is in a district where every race is a foregone conclusion.
I think we all know this is all we can do. So weâre all going to fucking DO it.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
Then I walked past another polling place where the line was a full city block long, and a few people thick.
Again, this is in a district where every race is a foregone conclusion.
I think we all know this is all we can do. So weâre all going to fucking DO it.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
If you're a Massachusetts voter, be a Masshole, not an asshole and vote Yes on 3.
posted by pxe2000 at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by pxe2000 at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Seeing reports of some long lines even here in the blue Boston area. Also, remember: Polling places in schools tend to have bake sales, so bring cash - unless you vote at the Bates School in Roslindale, where they take credit cards and Venmo.
posted by adamg at 6:33 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by adamg at 6:33 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
it's a tradition to eat a sausage with bread on election day.
I think that is an excellent tradition and one that we should start doing immediately.
posted by Melismata at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
I think that is an excellent tradition and one that we should start doing immediately.
posted by Melismata at 6:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
It was raining unpleasantly this morning but my polling place was, I think, busier than I have ever seen it. I always vote at about the same time, so I have reasonably decent standards for comparison. Voter turnout in my neighborhood is never high per se so there's never a line, but it was pretty active today. Also, millenials seem to be very active as election judges - there were more volunteers than I've ever seen, and not just old hands, either. My district always goes leftest-available-DFLer, too. The voters I saw did not seem like suddenly-energized Old White Conservatives (my area has a leavening of Old White Hippies and Radicals).
To the shores of need past the reefs of greed, etc.
posted by Frowner at 6:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
To the shores of need past the reefs of greed, etc.
posted by Frowner at 6:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Gallup comes out with one last poll this morning. Generic ballot: D+11, 54% - 43%.
posted by chris24 at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Mod note: Just another reminder: We have the Metatalk Vote thread where people can talk about their experience voting and personal stories, we have Chat for chatty discussion, and we have the Fucking Fuck thread for venting, plus we have the regular WH/Admin politics catchall that's still open for other politics talk, so let's try to keep this channel mostly clear for voting related news and returns. Thanks.
posted by taz (staff) at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Neil deGrasse Tyson: Look what happened the last time you didnât vote
posted by growabrain at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 6:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Voted this morning in the rural red heart of mid-Michigan. New polling place so I can't gauge how busy it normally is, but I was number 125 at 7:45AM. Pretty crowded for a small township hall (which may not be a good indicator, though the last time I saw big crowds by me, Michigan went for Trump) which makes me wonder if all the inflammatory ads in right wing media are getting more traction than we blue belles might like to admit. The old white folks to vibrant youth ratio was about 3:1, so ÂŻ\_(ă)_/ÂŻ.
posted by Chrischris at 6:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrischris at 6:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
but I was number 125 at 7:45AM
The old white folks to vibrant youth ratio was about 3:1
These two statements might be related.
posted by ian1977 at 6:48 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
The old white folks to vibrant youth ratio was about 3:1
These two statements might be related.
posted by ian1977 at 6:48 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
In the last month I wrote fifty postcards for Need To Vote/Need To Impeach, which is light years beyond any political thing I have ever done. And I EXHORTED my newly-eligible daughter to vote.
But last night I went on FB and simply told everyone to vote Democrat, which may be the most revolutionary thing that the current environment has driven me to. It felt weird, but...freeing?
God damn, this better work.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
But last night I went on FB and simply told everyone to vote Democrat, which may be the most revolutionary thing that the current environment has driven me to. It felt weird, but...freeing?
God damn, this better work.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
A team of graduate students at my university entered a competition last weekend, presenting a statistical model that predicted the outcome of state level races in Minnesota. They did very well (they may win -- we won't know until we can compare their predictions with the actual ones), but I'm not actually here to brag. I'm here to say: their model suggested that rain deters Republican voters at a higher rate than it deters Democratic voters. I've been taking some heart in that today, as a cold rain falls on our polling places.
posted by dbx at 6:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by dbx at 6:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Re: shitty weather: I am comforting myself with the argument that people are dissuaded from voting by shitty weather in inverse proportion to how motivated they are. And Democrats are really fucking motivated.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
posted by schadenfrau at 6:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
Breezed on through my voting precinct, in an actual Police Academy (minus mouth noises) on the way to work this morning. I live in Virginia's 4th Congressional District, which means I didn't get to help vote Dave Brat out of office in the 7th district. But all the text bots who blew up my phone in recent weeks still kept imploring me to vote for Brat or Spanberger anyway.
posted by emelenjr at 6:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by emelenjr at 6:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
@GoogleTrends
"DĂłnde votar" ("where to vote") is the top trending search on Google in the US today - spiking 3,350%.
posted by chris24 at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [97 favorites]
"DĂłnde votar" ("where to vote") is the top trending search on Google in the US today - spiking 3,350%.
posted by chris24 at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [97 favorites]
About to go out with my 7 year old in the pouring rain to vote in DC - getting soaked will be a small price to pay to vote for some folks genuinely committed to driving the money changers out of DC politics, Elissa Silverman and David Schwartzman [Council at Large], Emily Gasoi [Ward 1 Board of Education], and our outstanding Attorney General, Karl A. Racine.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by ryanshepard at 6:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Just voted in my newly de-gerrymandered PA 2nd district! There was a line out the door as the rain started because the machines in my ward were down. The repair crew arrived just as I did so I texted some coworkers and said I'm going to wait. Some of my neighbors who had to get to work opted for a provisional, some said they'd be back later, and some stuck it out with me. It took an additional 30 mins but everyone's spirits seemed high.
I agree with you schadenfrau, it'd take a sharknado to keep me from voting today.
posted by cmfletcher at 6:58 AM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
I agree with you schadenfrau, it'd take a sharknado to keep me from voting today.
posted by cmfletcher at 6:58 AM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
their model suggested that rain deters Republican voters at a higher rate than it deters Democratic voters.
This may or may not have to do with various and sundry deals they've made with certain demonic influences, vis a vis water solubility and tendency to scream "I'm melting!" when subjected to rainfall. I imagine the trend gets nastier the higher you go up the Republican hierarchy.
posted by Mayor West at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
This may or may not have to do with various and sundry deals they've made with certain demonic influences, vis a vis water solubility and tendency to scream "I'm melting!" when subjected to rainfall. I imagine the trend gets nastier the higher you go up the Republican hierarchy.
posted by Mayor West at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
"Well, Doctor, what have we gotâa Republic or a Monarchy?"
"A Republic, if you can keep it."
â Benjamin Franklin
posted by kirkaracha at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
"A Republic, if you can keep it."
â Benjamin Franklin
posted by kirkaracha at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
It seems strange to me to hear of having to queue up to vote.
What's the point of the voting machines (which also seems like a bizarre concept, I mean, just use a pencil) if they don't even speed up the voting?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
What's the point of the voting machines (which also seems like a bizarre concept, I mean, just use a pencil) if they don't even speed up the voting?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
"DĂłnde votar" ("where to vote") is the top trending search on Google in the US today - spiking 3,350%.
I remember someone on metafilter asserting that the hispanic/latinx vote in 2016 was going to absolutely shred trump in arizona and texas. maybe they were just off by a couple years.
posted by logicpunk at 7:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I remember someone on metafilter asserting that the hispanic/latinx vote in 2016 was going to absolutely shred trump in arizona and texas. maybe they were just off by a couple years.
posted by logicpunk at 7:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
It seems strange to me to hear of having to queue up to vote.
What's the point of the voting machines
All functioning as designed by Republican administrations. They are there to avoid any unpleasantness caused by undesirables actually voting. Two decades now, almost, and going strong.
posted by petebest at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
What's the point of the voting machines
All functioning as designed by Republican administrations. They are there to avoid any unpleasantness caused by undesirables actually voting. Two decades now, almost, and going strong.
posted by petebest at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Currently standing in a line out the door to vote in Nashville, just made it past the 100ft electioneering sign.
posted by ghharr at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by ghharr at 7:06 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
I doubt Iâll see any long lines at the polls here today... but thatâs because most of the ballots are already in. Pima hit just a smidge shy of 50% turnout on the early ballots alone. Itâs gotten to the point where 75-80% of the vote here is early voting. And this isnât a bad thing.
posted by azpenguin at 7:12 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 7:12 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I have a friend who works for the Associated Press in NYC on elections nights calling counties across the country to get the vote totals. She said that for this election, they decided to move to a different location for security reasons. She also said that if you are a poll watcher, but don't feel like your BOE will be responsive, you can call the AP directly and report problems/anomalies. She sent me this info:
The Associated Press is the only major news organization that has a news stringer in almost all Board of Election offices the night of an election. Something they very much pride themselves on in this day and age. The stringer reports to their AP regional center every 45 minutes with the vote count as it progresses during the evening (and beyond). Also, The Stringer reports on anything that may either affect the integrity of the vote or the vote tally in any way as it comes up. This can include the breakdown of voting machines, problems with counting the votes or retrieving information to polls closing early, or people having problems casting their ballots.
The Stringer has to be at the Board of Elections Office they have been assigned to 30 minutes before the closing of the polls. When they make their first report to the AP after arriving one of the first questions they are asked is if there is anything to report that might affect the voting and/or the vote count that evening.
If anyone experiences anything that they feel that the AP should be made aware of on election day they can call their local Board of Elections and ask to speak to the AP Stringer and they are supposed to either put you in direct contact with the Stringer or take your number and have Stringer call you right back.
However, if the person doesn't feel like calling their local Board of Elections office or it is before the Stringer has arrived they may call the number below that is the closest to their location and let the AP know directly what is going on and the AP will follow up. This I am pretty sure can be done anonymously.
Link to AP Bureaus in the United States and Puerto Rico direct numbers.
posted by kimdog at 7:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [79 favorites]
The Associated Press is the only major news organization that has a news stringer in almost all Board of Election offices the night of an election. Something they very much pride themselves on in this day and age. The stringer reports to their AP regional center every 45 minutes with the vote count as it progresses during the evening (and beyond). Also, The Stringer reports on anything that may either affect the integrity of the vote or the vote tally in any way as it comes up. This can include the breakdown of voting machines, problems with counting the votes or retrieving information to polls closing early, or people having problems casting their ballots.
The Stringer has to be at the Board of Elections Office they have been assigned to 30 minutes before the closing of the polls. When they make their first report to the AP after arriving one of the first questions they are asked is if there is anything to report that might affect the voting and/or the vote count that evening.
If anyone experiences anything that they feel that the AP should be made aware of on election day they can call their local Board of Elections and ask to speak to the AP Stringer and they are supposed to either put you in direct contact with the Stringer or take your number and have Stringer call you right back.
However, if the person doesn't feel like calling their local Board of Elections office or it is before the Stringer has arrived they may call the number below that is the closest to their location and let the AP know directly what is going on and the AP will follow up. This I am pretty sure can be done anonymously.
Link to AP Bureaus in the United States and Puerto Rico direct numbers.
posted by kimdog at 7:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [79 favorites]
It seems strange to me to hear of having to queue up to vote.
I get to line up 4 times when I vote. I line up separately to
posted by paper chromatographologist at 7:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I get to line up 4 times when I vote. I line up separately to
- sign in,
- get my ballot,
- get a booth where I fill in my ballot,
- return my ballot (this is where the machine is).
posted by paper chromatographologist at 7:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Hyper-local early voting note: I voted on this past Saturday, and the two vote-tallying machines (New Mexico is still oldschool - paper fill in the bubble ballots, scanned by a machine) had registered more than 2,000 votes each, in one week of early voting. The volunteers were all pretty happy about it, and they even cheered for a first-time voter. It was a positive experience all-around.
(And now I'll turn away from live updates and both politics threads until tomorrow, because I can't take 2016 all over again.)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
(And now I'll turn away from live updates and both politics threads until tomorrow, because I can't take 2016 all over again.)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Currently waiting in line to vote in my deep blue well off district which has never happened before in my 15 years of living and voting here
posted by The Whelk at 7:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 7:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
As someone who hasn't had cable in decades, and relies on Hulu and Netflix for entertainment, is there some place I can go during the day to stream some good commentary and analysis leading up to tonight? I would have preferred MSNBC, but you have to log in with a provider.
This audio-only link for MSNBC has been pointed out in past politics megathreads. For video:
- Election Night 2018 Coverage with Democracy Now! & The Intercept
- 7 p.m. to 1 a.m. ET
- Guests: Aimee Allison, Carol Anderson, Ari Berman, AĂda ChĂĄvez, Lee Fang, Briahna Gray, Ryan Grim, Mehdi Hasan, Naomi Klein, Ralph Nader, Allan Nairn, John Nichols, Linda Sarsour.
- If they're using DN!'s normal streaming infrastructure then in addition to watching in a browser on the web site you may be able to plug this .m3u8 link, where the daily broadcast stream normally shows up, into media player software or a Chromecast or other device
- Al Jazeera English has been advertising this additional Youtube stream âUS midterms LIVE: AJStream meets AJ+â alongside their normal 24-hour stream
- 02GMTâ05GMT, which I think (?) is going to be 9PM to Midnight ET / 8PMâ11PM CT / 7PMâ10PM MT / 6PMâ9PM PT
posted by XMLicious at 7:22 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
The poll workers at my precinct's table were both young women, which I have *never* seen there before, it's always been the retiree sort. I wonder if that's the case elsewhere?
Regardless, I loved seeing it.
posted by jammer at 7:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Regardless, I loved seeing it.
posted by jammer at 7:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Triumph the Insult Comic Dog: Ted Cruz is the Lion of the senate!
posted by growabrain at 7:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 7:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
What's the point of the voting machines (which also seems like a bizarre concept, I mean, just use a pencil) if they don't even speed up the voting?
I'mma treat this as a serious question rather than indulge my instinct to snark about corporate enrichment and solutions in search of a problem. Don't worry, I'll be back to my same old snarky annoying self in no time.
People pitching computer crap for voting didn't just appear in 2000, but the varied reports of fuckups in the 2000 election really kicked it into high gear. The stuff that got the most coverage - and subsequent jokes/etc - were hanging chads, which refers to the little rectangle of paper that is supposed to be totally dislodged when someone votes on a system using a punch card. (which obviously is yet another technological "solution" that the computing industry dropped on us for voting, starting in the 1950s).
When you voted in Florida (and other areas, but as always we made dysfunction famous with this) you would go sign in and they'd hand you a plain punchcard, all the holes still filled. You'd walk up to one of the little kiosks and there's be a slot to slide the card down into. You needed to put it all the way in so the top holes on the card aligned with the little 'horns' and now you're ready to vote. You can see one of the machines in this article. There's a little booklet with all the voting options and this little stylus which you use to punch the hole matching your choice. Flip through the options, punch your choices, then take the card back out.
Now you're left with this card which to the naked eye is completely incomprehensible. There should be a series of holes that a machine can read to determine what you meant to vote. The downside here - and this is the sort of reasoning used to push these touch screen solutions - is that nothing stopped the voter from fucking up the card in a million ways. Punch more than one choice for President. Don't punch any for that City Council seat. Or, and here's the hanging chad problem, a hole is punched but the little square is still hanging on.
So you see that later, was that a voting attempt? Or was that a square that got pushed partially out during handling? The problem was exacerbated by bad process, where the little drop area for the squares hadn't been cleaned out in the machines. If you've ever tried to use a hand hole punch where nobody has emptied out the catch bin you've experienced this.
So in 2000 you have Florida being the most Florida it can be and pictures aplenty of various vote inspectors trying to eyeball these ballots to understand what the fuck they really indicate and a nation in a panic that they might not find out who won for a whole two weeks and suddenly Diebold and the like have a chance to pitch their touch screens.
So really the tl;dr here is that speed was never really the primary pitch for these things. Accuracy and idiot-proofing - whether that idiot is the voter or the poll workers - was more the focus. And in fairness, there's upsides to touch screens that it's hard to duplicate other ways. Got an election like a city council where you can pick two people out of 5 choice? That was hard to indicate on the little punch card things and impossible to give feedback about. Touch screens can use color and visual indicators. Push the button for SKIPPY when you meant SLAPPY? Just press the one you really meant and switch it before you press the big old SUBMIT button at the end. Skipped by an item and didn't realize it? Touch screens can pop up a message saying "you didn't pick anything for item 4, do you want to submit anyway?" message.
The problem isn't the touch screen, it's that when you press submit they just put some bits on a card and there's no way to make sure they're the bits the voter really meant. The touch screen systems we used here in Arlington VA till a few elections ago had a little ticker tape that also stored the votes but the voter couldn't see that, so it's a verification of something voters never verified.
posted by phearlez at 7:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
I'mma treat this as a serious question rather than indulge my instinct to snark about corporate enrichment and solutions in search of a problem. Don't worry, I'll be back to my same old snarky annoying self in no time.
People pitching computer crap for voting didn't just appear in 2000, but the varied reports of fuckups in the 2000 election really kicked it into high gear. The stuff that got the most coverage - and subsequent jokes/etc - were hanging chads, which refers to the little rectangle of paper that is supposed to be totally dislodged when someone votes on a system using a punch card. (which obviously is yet another technological "solution" that the computing industry dropped on us for voting, starting in the 1950s).
When you voted in Florida (and other areas, but as always we made dysfunction famous with this) you would go sign in and they'd hand you a plain punchcard, all the holes still filled. You'd walk up to one of the little kiosks and there's be a slot to slide the card down into. You needed to put it all the way in so the top holes on the card aligned with the little 'horns' and now you're ready to vote. You can see one of the machines in this article. There's a little booklet with all the voting options and this little stylus which you use to punch the hole matching your choice. Flip through the options, punch your choices, then take the card back out.
Now you're left with this card which to the naked eye is completely incomprehensible. There should be a series of holes that a machine can read to determine what you meant to vote. The downside here - and this is the sort of reasoning used to push these touch screen solutions - is that nothing stopped the voter from fucking up the card in a million ways. Punch more than one choice for President. Don't punch any for that City Council seat. Or, and here's the hanging chad problem, a hole is punched but the little square is still hanging on.
So you see that later, was that a voting attempt? Or was that a square that got pushed partially out during handling? The problem was exacerbated by bad process, where the little drop area for the squares hadn't been cleaned out in the machines. If you've ever tried to use a hand hole punch where nobody has emptied out the catch bin you've experienced this.
So in 2000 you have Florida being the most Florida it can be and pictures aplenty of various vote inspectors trying to eyeball these ballots to understand what the fuck they really indicate and a nation in a panic that they might not find out who won for a whole two weeks and suddenly Diebold and the like have a chance to pitch their touch screens.
So really the tl;dr here is that speed was never really the primary pitch for these things. Accuracy and idiot-proofing - whether that idiot is the voter or the poll workers - was more the focus. And in fairness, there's upsides to touch screens that it's hard to duplicate other ways. Got an election like a city council where you can pick two people out of 5 choice? That was hard to indicate on the little punch card things and impossible to give feedback about. Touch screens can use color and visual indicators. Push the button for SKIPPY when you meant SLAPPY? Just press the one you really meant and switch it before you press the big old SUBMIT button at the end. Skipped by an item and didn't realize it? Touch screens can pop up a message saying "you didn't pick anything for item 4, do you want to submit anyway?" message.
The problem isn't the touch screen, it's that when you press submit they just put some bits on a card and there's no way to make sure they're the bits the voter really meant. The touch screen systems we used here in Arlington VA till a few elections ago had a little ticker tape that also stored the votes but the voter couldn't see that, so it's a verification of something voters never verified.
posted by phearlez at 7:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Reasons to be hopeful:
ANOTHER Andrew Gillum canvasser this morning! Two yesterday! She wanted to know if we voted, and if we hadn't, did we need help getting a ride to the polls? WONDERFUL.
Dropped my 18 year old daughter off to vote for the first time. I was so proud of her. She's a liberal like her step-dad :)
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 7:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
ANOTHER Andrew Gillum canvasser this morning! Two yesterday! She wanted to know if we voted, and if we hadn't, did we need help getting a ride to the polls? WONDERFUL.
Dropped my 18 year old daughter off to vote for the first time. I was so proud of her. She's a liberal like her step-dad :)
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 7:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
On election morning, Border Patrol holds public crowd control demonstration in El Paso
El Paso is Beto's home ground.
Also, if you're feeling twitchy, call retirement homes near you and ask if they need volunteers to help get people to the polls. Y'all, I'm carrying a 100 year old, pink hat wearing, daughter of a suffragette to the polls in a little bit. She says she hasn't missed an election since she watched her mother defy her father and the local leaders to cast a ballot in 1920.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [165 favorites]
El Paso is Beto's home ground.
Also, if you're feeling twitchy, call retirement homes near you and ask if they need volunteers to help get people to the polls. Y'all, I'm carrying a 100 year old, pink hat wearing, daughter of a suffragette to the polls in a little bit. She says she hasn't missed an election since she watched her mother defy her father and the local leaders to cast a ballot in 1920.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [165 favorites]
I got to the polls in my St. Louis suburb about 15 minutes after opening, and there was already a healthy line that looked like 2008.
We have a very long ballot in St. Louis County today -- way too long for the cardboard privacy sleeves for the paper version -- with three choices for medical marijuana, ongoing fuckery with the County Executive vs. the STL County Council, a whole bunch of judges up for retention votes, etc. I chose a paper ballot and wished I'd gone touchscreen just to save my hand from filling in a hundred bubbles.
A few people were sitting on the floor to fill out paper ballots rather than waiting for booths or spots at tables with cardboard privacy screens.
I'm nervous about the senate race -- McCaskill is probably my least favorite Democrat ever but still a Democrat, and Hawley gives me the creeps. Polling has been slightly in Claire's favor but a massive dump of gross anti-choice campaign signs along with Hawley signs went up all over surrounding neighborhoods over the weekend.
posted by Foosnark at 7:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
We have a very long ballot in St. Louis County today -- way too long for the cardboard privacy sleeves for the paper version -- with three choices for medical marijuana, ongoing fuckery with the County Executive vs. the STL County Council, a whole bunch of judges up for retention votes, etc. I chose a paper ballot and wished I'd gone touchscreen just to save my hand from filling in a hundred bubbles.
A few people were sitting on the floor to fill out paper ballots rather than waiting for booths or spots at tables with cardboard privacy screens.
I'm nervous about the senate race -- McCaskill is probably my least favorite Democrat ever but still a Democrat, and Hawley gives me the creeps. Polling has been slightly in Claire's favor but a massive dump of gross anti-choice campaign signs along with Hawley signs went up all over surrounding neighborhoods over the weekend.
posted by Foosnark at 7:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
(For context, there is almost never a line when I go to vote at that polling place. In the primary, I arrived at about the same time and was the second voter of the day. The paper ballot scanner showed 33 voters so far and there were probably 3-4 times as many people going for touchscreens.)
posted by Foosnark at 7:38 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Foosnark at 7:38 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The many stories of large turnout numbers are heartening. If we are looking at a blue wave (TTTCS), I hope the media takes notice that the people of America are rejecting Trump's mendacity, corruption, and open racism, just as his perennial unpopularity in the polls indicates they do.
This moment in history is our test, but it's also the media's. If we the people pass the test and the media continues to follow its lazy "both sides" model that gives voice to white supremacists, fascists, and Republicans -- but I repeat myself -- they will deserve all the scorn loyal Americans will inevitably heap upon them.
posted by Gelatin at 7:38 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
This moment in history is our test, but it's also the media's. If we the people pass the test and the media continues to follow its lazy "both sides" model that gives voice to white supremacists, fascists, and Republicans -- but I repeat myself -- they will deserve all the scorn loyal Americans will inevitably heap upon them.
posted by Gelatin at 7:38 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Meanwhile in GA, voting machines in Gwinnett County have gone down, causing long delays.
posted by emjaybee at 7:40 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 7:40 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Just got home from voting! Walked to my polling place, where there was a short line to get in, and then a longer one to feed my paper ballots into the scanner. The poll workers it had been steadily busy all day so far. When I left there was a much bigger line-- maybe 25-30 people, vs like 5 when I arrived. Then I bought a giant muffin from the bake sale and headed home in the rain.
On my way out, I passed my current state delegate on his way in. He got primaried from the left, so he wasn't actually on the ballot, but good for him for showing up anyway.
posted by nonasuch at 7:44 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
On my way out, I passed my current state delegate on his way in. He got primaried from the left, so he wasn't actually on the ballot, but good for him for showing up anyway.
posted by nonasuch at 7:44 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Never miss an opptunity for thematic outfits
posted by The Whelk at 7:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 7:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Learning From 2016 Mistakes, Networks Prepare For All Midterm Outcomes - Kate Riga, TPM
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile, in cobalt-blue Massachusetts, a bunch of retrograde assholes somehow managed to get a question onto the ballot about trans rights, which is effectively "Do you think the state should still treat trans people as human y/n?" It's infuriating to even have to vote on this, but it's wildly encouraging to see that the machine guns opened fire on this thing the moment it tried to take the beach. I've been canvassed about this (and ONLY this, because hey, seriously blue district where all the important decisions were made in the primaries last month) a handful of times, and on my 1/8-mile walk to the train station this morning, I met four people carrying big ol "Yes on 3" signs who were directing people to their respective polls. No one has done much polling recently, but the numbers I've seen suggest that the Ys out number the Ns about 4-to-1. It never stood much of a chance, but is clearly a bellwether: if they can get 30 or 40% of the vote in liberal Disneyland, they might try it somewhere else that's less progressive. If the polling numbers from today hold, they're likely to get 15-20%, way under even what the Crazification Factor would suggest.
Motherfuckers, you try to come at trans rights in the bluest state in the land, you're gonna get the horns.
posted by Mayor West at 7:49 AM on November 6, 2018 [77 favorites]
Motherfuckers, you try to come at trans rights in the bluest state in the land, you're gonna get the horns.
posted by Mayor West at 7:49 AM on November 6, 2018 [77 favorites]
Mark one down for another story of ridiculous--seemingly preventable?--voting problems in North Carolina
Humidity causes ballot problems in North Carolina
Humidity causes ballot problems in North Carolina
It could be a long night before results come in for Wake County, North Carolinaâs second most populous county, where Democrats hope to pick up state House and Senate seats in a bid to break the GOPâs supermajority in the legislature.posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:53 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
County election officials had already predicted that heavy turnout could delay results, but as voters lined up Tuesday morning, precinct officials began reporting that paper ballots were repeatedly jamming in tabulators because of humidity problems. Some ballots may have to be counted by hand. Polls close in the state at 7:30 p.m.
Motherfuckers, you try to come at trans rights in the bluest state in the land, you're gonna get the horns.
The unspoken thing that is on the ballot this time is if America should be based on equality in general.
posted by jaduncan at 8:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
The unspoken thing that is on the ballot this time is if America should be based on equality in general.
posted by jaduncan at 8:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
NY 23rd maybe has a competitive race with Tracy Mitrano against the affable liar Tom Reed. There was a crowd at my polls this morning - no lines but a constant stream of people at the polls and a constant stream of cars pulling in and out.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 8:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Fuck 'em up, team.
posted by Going To Maine at 8:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Going To Maine at 8:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Former McCain chief of staff: Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.
posted by growabrain at 8:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 8:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Never miss an opptunity for thematic outfits
Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
posted by Gelatin at 8:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
posted by Gelatin at 8:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Family reports that polling places in the blue-er areas of NY-23 were âPACKED,â which is definitely good for Mitrano.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by schadenfrau at 8:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Colorado has same day registration and while it is a vote by mail state you can vote in person. Likely at your city hall or courthouse. Also, you are legally entitled to a provisional ballot. If you show up to the polling place and ask for one they must give it to you.
Vote.
No excuses.
posted by East14thTaco at 8:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Vote.
No excuses.
posted by East14thTaco at 8:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Younger voters turn out big in Tennessee's early voting - Mike Reicher, Nashville Tennessean
An analysis by the political data group TargetSmart shows that 98,000 people age 18 to 29 have voted early in the state, compared to 12,800 in 2014 â a more than seven-fold increase. The data includes early voters and absentee voters, as of Nov. 1.posted by ZeusHumms at 8:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Former McCain chief of staff: Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.
And the bigger the rebuke to Trump, the greater the narcissistic injury to his sorry orange ego and the less persuasive his "I saved the Senate in an historically friendly map for Republicans" face saving will be. And if the media narrative becomes "historical rebuke of Trump," it'll cause him to lash out even more, earning him worse coverage even before Democrats release the tax returns he's desperate to hide and reveal his crimes with investigations.
posted by Gelatin at 8:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
And the bigger the rebuke to Trump, the greater the narcissistic injury to his sorry orange ego and the less persuasive his "I saved the Senate in an historically friendly map for Republicans" face saving will be. And if the media narrative becomes "historical rebuke of Trump," it'll cause him to lash out even more, earning him worse coverage even before Democrats release the tax returns he's desperate to hide and reveal his crimes with investigations.
posted by Gelatin at 8:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I'mma treat this as a serious question...
Thanks for that response. It was very enlightening.
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
Then you put the paper in a box and someone counts it later on.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Thanks for that response. It was very enlightening.
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
Then you put the paper in a box and someone counts it later on.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Spreading this link far and wide today: polls.pizza lets you donate money and they'll send pizza to crowdsourced areas with long polling lines. FEED THEM!
posted by nakedmolerats at 8:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
posted by nakedmolerats at 8:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
Oops, We Forgot to Plug in the Voting Machine - Blake Paterson and Jessica Huseman, ProPublica
In Huntsville, Alabama, voters at one location â the Charles Stone Agricultural Center â wrote so hard that the pen perforated the two-sided ballot, causing the vote-counting machine to register the ballot as an error, according to Tommy Ragland, the Madison County probate judge.posted by bassooner at 8:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
âVoters are bearing down so hard with the pen, itâs like theyâre taking their anger out on the ballot itself,â Ragland said, adding that voters can redo their ballot if they make this mistake.
lthough I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
Me too! High five.
posted by emjaybee at 8:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Me too! High five.
posted by emjaybee at 8:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I'mma treat this as a serious question...
Thanks for that response. It was very enlightening.
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
Then you put the paper in a box and someone counts it later on.
It's important to note that voting equipment varies wildly by state. In North Carolina it's close to what you're doing in the UK except that the piece of paper looks like a standardized test ("fill in the ovals") and the box you drop the paper in is a machine that can tally the votes. I'm happy with this system and prefer it to moving to something like touchscreens.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Thanks for that response. It was very enlightening.
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
Then you put the paper in a box and someone counts it later on.
It's important to note that voting equipment varies wildly by state. In North Carolina it's close to what you're doing in the UK except that the piece of paper looks like a standardized test ("fill in the ovals") and the box you drop the paper in is a machine that can tally the votes. I'm happy with this system and prefer it to moving to something like touchscreens.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Here's a photo of a British voting machine. What more do you need?
posted by Paul Slade at 8:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 8:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.Huh, I never thought of this. Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.
posted by Gelatin at 10:09 AM on November 6 [3 favorites +] [!]
posted by Billy Rubin at 8:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Former McCain chief of staff: Vote For the Democrat (in most cases). That feels weird to write. But the bigger the rebuke of Trump the better for the country. Resist.
And more...
John Weaver (Kasich, McCain, Bush strategist)
I voted early 2 weeks ago & didn't vote for a single Republican. It pains me to say this, after a lifetime's career in GOP politics, but today, this moment, the only choice is to vote for Democrats.
Mike Hettinger
Retweeted John Weaver
As a former House Republican Chief of Staff, I'd like to associate myself with this thread. #vote
Max Boot
If youâre as sick and tired as I am of being sick and tired about whatâs going on, vote against all Republicans. Every single one. Thatâs the only message they will understand. And I say that as a former Republican. Me: WaPo - Vote against all Republicans. Every single one.
Tom Nichols
This midterm is not about policies. It would be pretty to think so, but it's not.
This is about voting down the line against Republicans who have abdicated their constitutional duty. It's about saving our system by voting for divided government.
posted by chris24 at 8:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [96 favorites]
And more...
John Weaver (Kasich, McCain, Bush strategist)
I voted early 2 weeks ago & didn't vote for a single Republican. It pains me to say this, after a lifetime's career in GOP politics, but today, this moment, the only choice is to vote for Democrats.
Mike Hettinger
Retweeted John Weaver
As a former House Republican Chief of Staff, I'd like to associate myself with this thread. #vote
Max Boot
If youâre as sick and tired as I am of being sick and tired about whatâs going on, vote against all Republicans. Every single one. Thatâs the only message they will understand. And I say that as a former Republican. Me: WaPo - Vote against all Republicans. Every single one.
Tom Nichols
This midterm is not about policies. It would be pretty to think so, but it's not.
This is about voting down the line against Republicans who have abdicated their constitutional duty. It's about saving our system by voting for divided government.
posted by chris24 at 8:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [96 favorites]
Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
Me too. With buttons saying "I absentee voted" and "I vote because women are people too."
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Me too. With buttons saying "I absentee voted" and "I vote because women are people too."
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Washington State!
Washington My Home!
On the West Coast, election doesn't end on election night.
Hereâs what to watch as Washington voters cast their midterm election ballots.
Midterm election turnout could surpass Washington state record set amid Vietnam War turmoil.
In Washington State, 3 G.O.P. [Congressional] Districts That Could Flip.
Carbon tax, gun law, competitive House seats among hot races on state ballot
Total Results.
Initiative 1631 - "The initiative would enact a carbon emissions fee on large emitters of carbon based on the carbon content of fossil fuels sold or used in the state and electricity generated in or imported for use in the state. " The Ballot Question That Could Transform U.S. Climate Politics as Washington State Could Become The First To Charge A Carbon Fee. After a decade of failed carbon taxes, Washington state is pushing to pass the country's first "carbon fee." Will this time be different? Arguments for and against I-1631âs carbon fees
Initiative 1634 - "This measure would prohibit local government entities from imposing any new tax, fee, or other assessment on grocery items." Long story short, Seattle put a tax on sweetened beverages, and this is an attempt to prevent that from occurring anywhere else. A solution in search of a problem
Initiative 1639 - "Initiative #1639 would implement restrictions on the purchase and ownership of firearms." Voters in Washington State Are Poised to Pass Some of the Countryâs Toughest Gun-Safety Laws. A big nudge to safety for gun culture. "While it contains reasonable elements, there also are questionable and unsettling expectations tucked in to the 30-page document." Arguments for and against WA state's gun initiative
Initiative to the Legislature 940 - "Initiative 940 would create a good faith test to determine when the use of deadly force by police is justifiable, require police to receive de-escalation and mental health training, and provide that police have a duty to render first aid. It would remove the requirement that prosecutors show that a law enforcement officer acted with malice to be convicted" Former Seattle police official tells why he appears in election ad with Charleena Lylesâ sister. CON: Police officers at risk if Initiative 940 passes. We see problems with the deadly force initiative, but hereâs why we recommend a âyesâ vote anyway.
Opponents and supporters of Washington Initiative 940 on deadly force were allies, and could be again
Advisory Vote 19 - "Non-Binding Question on Oil Spill Tax Repeal" What You Need to Know About Advisory Vote 19. "In the 2018 session, the Legislature extended the stateâs oil spill administration tax and its oil spill response tax, both of which are levied on crude oil brought to refineries by ships or barges. The two taxes, which together total 5 cents on a 42-gallon barrel, were extended to crude coming in by pipeline." Why do we even have thatlever vote? Thank perpetual ballot con-man Tim Eyman.
Election to the US Senate
Maria Cantwell (D) Incumbent - Susan Hutchison (R). Cantwell is popular and the clear favorite.
Elections to the US House of Representatives: Contested congressional races focus in Washington state
Washington 1st - most of Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish counties, as well as parts of King.
Suzan DelBene (D) Incumbent - Jeffrey Beeler (R) - Del Bene is clear favorite
Washington 2nd - San Juan and Island counties, and the mainland from Bellingham to Lynnwood
Rick Larsen (D) Incumbent - Brian Luke (Lib.) Larsen is clear favorite
Washington 3rd - the southwestern corner of the state
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) Incumbent - Carolyn Long (D). Butler favored, 3 in 4. In Carolyn Long, Jaime Herrera Beutler Faces Her Biggest Challenge Yet as Blue wave threatens to wash away one of GOPâs few Hispanic congresswomen and Long, other Democrats rally close to finish line
Washington 4th - the middle third of the state
Dan Newhouse (R) Incumbent - Christine Brown (D) Newhouse is clear favorite
Washington 5th - the eastern third of the state
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) Incumbent - Lisa Brown (D). McMorris Rodgers is at 3 in 4 , The Republican Leadership Member Most Likely to Lose as Democrat eye upset in conservative Washington state district. Once a deficit hawk, McMorris Rodgers has no idea what Brown should have cut during the Recession.
Washington 6th - the Olympic Peninsula, Kitsap and part of Tacoma
Derek Kilmer (D) Incumbent - Douglas Dightman (R). Kilmer is clear favorite.
Washington 7th - Vashon and points north on the Mainland, Normandy Park through Seattle to Edmonds
Pramila Jayapal (D) Incumbent - Craig Keller (R) Jayapal is clear favorite.
She Didnât Pick the Resistance. The Resistance Picked Her. Now Sheâs One of Trumpâs Most Fearless Opponents. One of the "Samosa Caucus" and Explains Why Her Work on Immigration Policy Is Personal and her strong support of Medicare-for-All
Washington 8th - eastern parts of King and Pierce counties, and across the mountains to Chelan and Kittitas
Kim Schrier (D) - Dino Rossi (R). Schrier is up after a recent poll, 2 in 3. Why Kim Schrier left medicine to run for Congress against Dino Rossi, long time WA state campaigner. Record-setting $25 million pours into Washington state House race in Seattle suburbs, the nail-biting countdown to a test of the Trump presidency
Washington 9th - the rest of Tacoma up through South Seattle and across to Bellevue and the Eastside
Adam Smith (D) Incumbent - Sarah Smith (DemSoc) Smith is the clear favorite, LOL, I mean the incumbent 11-termer, not he 30 year of DemSoc outsider. Smith vs. Smith: Two Democrats Clash in 9th Congressional District Forum. WEAPONS MAKERS RUSHING CAMPAIGN CASH TO DEMOCRAT IN LINE TO CHAIR DEFENSE INDUSTRYâS KEY HOUSE COMMITTEE as Sarah Smithâs Democratic insurgent campaign aims for upset in Congressional race. Can Sarah Smith Be Seattleâs Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
Washington 10th - Olympia and the South Sound
Denny Heck (D) Incumbent - Joseph Brumbles (R). Heck is the clear favorite.
There's a bunch of local races, as the entire State House of Representatives and 1/4 of the State Senate is up for election. These Washington candidates are looking to shape policy in the capital
Control of Washington Legislature could hinge on late ballot counts - "The chance for cliffhanger elections may be even greater in the Legislature, where Democrats currently have a one-vote majority in the state Senate and a two-vote majority in the House." Education has been a big issue, and Washington Democrats may win largest legislative majorities in a decade - "The prospect of large majorities in the state Legislature has some Democrats hoping they can make good on ideas theyâve long championed but have been blocked by Republicans â and fellow Democrats within their small majorities."
You probably head about Matt Shea, the Spokane area State Representative who wrote a "biblical manifesto for war" which suggests supporters of abortion and gay marriage be killed. Somethingâs Brewing in the Deep Red West, and he's been referred to the FBI, but sinceâHomeland Securityâ Ignores White Terror, DHS Veterans Say and For two decades, domestic counterterrorism strategy has ignored the rising danger of far-right extremism. In the atmosphere of willful indifference, a virulent movement has grown and metastasized. especially in the inland northwest, I'm pretty sure nothing will come of it.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [53 favorites]
Washington My Home!
On the West Coast, election doesn't end on election night.
Hereâs what to watch as Washington voters cast their midterm election ballots.
Midterm election turnout could surpass Washington state record set amid Vietnam War turmoil.
In Washington State, 3 G.O.P. [Congressional] Districts That Could Flip.
Carbon tax, gun law, competitive House seats among hot races on state ballot
Total Results.
Initiative 1631 - "The initiative would enact a carbon emissions fee on large emitters of carbon based on the carbon content of fossil fuels sold or used in the state and electricity generated in or imported for use in the state. " The Ballot Question That Could Transform U.S. Climate Politics as Washington State Could Become The First To Charge A Carbon Fee. After a decade of failed carbon taxes, Washington state is pushing to pass the country's first "carbon fee." Will this time be different? Arguments for and against I-1631âs carbon fees
Initiative 1634 - "This measure would prohibit local government entities from imposing any new tax, fee, or other assessment on grocery items." Long story short, Seattle put a tax on sweetened beverages, and this is an attempt to prevent that from occurring anywhere else. A solution in search of a problem
Initiative 1639 - "Initiative #1639 would implement restrictions on the purchase and ownership of firearms." Voters in Washington State Are Poised to Pass Some of the Countryâs Toughest Gun-Safety Laws. A big nudge to safety for gun culture. "While it contains reasonable elements, there also are questionable and unsettling expectations tucked in to the 30-page document." Arguments for and against WA state's gun initiative
Initiative to the Legislature 940 - "Initiative 940 would create a good faith test to determine when the use of deadly force by police is justifiable, require police to receive de-escalation and mental health training, and provide that police have a duty to render first aid. It would remove the requirement that prosecutors show that a law enforcement officer acted with malice to be convicted" Former Seattle police official tells why he appears in election ad with Charleena Lylesâ sister. CON: Police officers at risk if Initiative 940 passes. We see problems with the deadly force initiative, but hereâs why we recommend a âyesâ vote anyway.
Opponents and supporters of Washington Initiative 940 on deadly force were allies, and could be again
Advisory Vote 19 - "Non-Binding Question on Oil Spill Tax Repeal" What You Need to Know About Advisory Vote 19. "In the 2018 session, the Legislature extended the stateâs oil spill administration tax and its oil spill response tax, both of which are levied on crude oil brought to refineries by ships or barges. The two taxes, which together total 5 cents on a 42-gallon barrel, were extended to crude coming in by pipeline." Why do we even have that
Election to the US Senate
Maria Cantwell (D) Incumbent - Susan Hutchison (R). Cantwell is popular and the clear favorite.
Elections to the US House of Representatives: Contested congressional races focus in Washington state
Washington 1st - most of Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish counties, as well as parts of King.
Suzan DelBene (D) Incumbent - Jeffrey Beeler (R) - Del Bene is clear favorite
Washington 2nd - San Juan and Island counties, and the mainland from Bellingham to Lynnwood
Rick Larsen (D) Incumbent - Brian Luke (Lib.) Larsen is clear favorite
Washington 3rd - the southwestern corner of the state
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) Incumbent - Carolyn Long (D). Butler favored, 3 in 4. In Carolyn Long, Jaime Herrera Beutler Faces Her Biggest Challenge Yet as Blue wave threatens to wash away one of GOPâs few Hispanic congresswomen and Long, other Democrats rally close to finish line
Washington 4th - the middle third of the state
Dan Newhouse (R) Incumbent - Christine Brown (D) Newhouse is clear favorite
Washington 5th - the eastern third of the state
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) Incumbent - Lisa Brown (D). McMorris Rodgers is at 3 in 4 , The Republican Leadership Member Most Likely to Lose as Democrat eye upset in conservative Washington state district. Once a deficit hawk, McMorris Rodgers has no idea what Brown should have cut during the Recession.
Washington 6th - the Olympic Peninsula, Kitsap and part of Tacoma
Derek Kilmer (D) Incumbent - Douglas Dightman (R). Kilmer is clear favorite.
Washington 7th - Vashon and points north on the Mainland, Normandy Park through Seattle to Edmonds
Pramila Jayapal (D) Incumbent - Craig Keller (R) Jayapal is clear favorite.
She Didnât Pick the Resistance. The Resistance Picked Her. Now Sheâs One of Trumpâs Most Fearless Opponents. One of the "Samosa Caucus" and Explains Why Her Work on Immigration Policy Is Personal and her strong support of Medicare-for-All
Washington 8th - eastern parts of King and Pierce counties, and across the mountains to Chelan and Kittitas
Kim Schrier (D) - Dino Rossi (R). Schrier is up after a recent poll, 2 in 3. Why Kim Schrier left medicine to run for Congress against Dino Rossi, long time WA state campaigner. Record-setting $25 million pours into Washington state House race in Seattle suburbs, the nail-biting countdown to a test of the Trump presidency
Washington 9th - the rest of Tacoma up through South Seattle and across to Bellevue and the Eastside
Adam Smith (D) Incumbent - Sarah Smith (DemSoc) Smith is the clear favorite, LOL, I mean the incumbent 11-termer, not he 30 year of DemSoc outsider. Smith vs. Smith: Two Democrats Clash in 9th Congressional District Forum. WEAPONS MAKERS RUSHING CAMPAIGN CASH TO DEMOCRAT IN LINE TO CHAIR DEFENSE INDUSTRYâS KEY HOUSE COMMITTEE as Sarah Smithâs Democratic insurgent campaign aims for upset in Congressional race. Can Sarah Smith Be Seattleâs Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
Washington 10th - Olympia and the South Sound
Denny Heck (D) Incumbent - Joseph Brumbles (R). Heck is the clear favorite.
There's a bunch of local races, as the entire State House of Representatives and 1/4 of the State Senate is up for election. These Washington candidates are looking to shape policy in the capital
Control of Washington Legislature could hinge on late ballot counts - "The chance for cliffhanger elections may be even greater in the Legislature, where Democrats currently have a one-vote majority in the state Senate and a two-vote majority in the House." Education has been a big issue, and Washington Democrats may win largest legislative majorities in a decade - "The prospect of large majorities in the state Legislature has some Democrats hoping they can make good on ideas theyâve long championed but have been blocked by Republicans â and fellow Democrats within their small majorities."
You probably head about Matt Shea, the Spokane area State Representative who wrote a "biblical manifesto for war" which suggests supporters of abortion and gay marriage be killed. Somethingâs Brewing in the Deep Red West, and he's been referred to the FBI, but sinceâHomeland Securityâ Ignores White Terror, DHS Veterans Say and For two decades, domestic counterterrorism strategy has ignored the rising danger of far-right extremism. In the atmosphere of willful indifference, a virulent movement has grown and metastasized. especially in the inland northwest, I'm pretty sure nothing will come of it.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [53 favorites]
Somehow I ended up being too sick to work and too sick to go outside and knock on doors, so I get to spend today with my favorite group of high-information participants in our Republic's civic life! I voted in October and took melissasaurus' wonderful suggestion to put up a voting information sign in my building, with the important parts in blue.
I've also aggregated a very few live coverage/results pages for up-to-the-minute information on how voting is going all over the country:
Five Thirty-Eight's live commentary is up.
Washington Post's live blog is going strong.
New York Times' Live Election Results page and CNN's live results page, which obviously haven't started updating.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 8:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I've also aggregated a very few live coverage/results pages for up-to-the-minute information on how voting is going all over the country:
Five Thirty-Eight's live commentary is up.
Washington Post's live blog is going strong.
New York Times' Live Election Results page and CNN's live results page, which obviously haven't started updating.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 8:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Paul Slade Not to defend some of the wronger parts of American voting, but in the US we vote on a **LOT** of offices and issues.
Here in Texas I voted on literally dozens of offices and measures. At the very least a scantron style ballot for easy machine counting seems reasonable. Here's a sample ballot for Bexar County (where I voted).
You'll note that it's six pages of densely packed candidates and ballot measures. Hand counting is certainly possible, but it'd take longer per ballot than in other systems where generally a person is only voting on a handful of candidates or issues.
posted by sotonohito at 8:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Here in Texas I voted on literally dozens of offices and measures. At the very least a scantron style ballot for easy machine counting seems reasonable. Here's a sample ballot for Bexar County (where I voted).
You'll note that it's six pages of densely packed candidates and ballot measures. Hand counting is certainly possible, but it'd take longer per ballot than in other systems where generally a person is only voting on a handful of candidates or issues.
posted by sotonohito at 8:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
> On the West Coast, election doesn't end on election night.
Hereâs what to watch as Washington voters cast their midterm election ballots.
What fresh hell is this ... oh. OK, it's Washington State specific.
Magnificent comment, too tense to read it.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Hereâs what to watch as Washington voters cast their midterm election ballots.
What fresh hell is this ... oh. OK, it's Washington State specific.
Magnificent comment, too tense to read it.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Here's a photo of a British voting machine. What more do you need?
In general, US elections have a wide variety of questions, including bond issues and all kinds of other questions.
Here in Maine we also use the "fill in the oval" type ballots and I'll vote for the following:
- Governor of my state (choose one)
- US House District 1 (Ranked choice, rank 3 candidates in order of preference)
- US Senate (ranked choice, 3 candidates)
- State Senator (choose one)
- Maine House Representative (choose one)
- Judge of Probate
- Sheriff
- District Attorney (two of three candidates have withdrawn)
- County Commissioner
- City Council Rep
- School Board
- Water District Administrator
- Citizen Initiative referendum (vote yes or no)
- four bond issues (vote yes or no) (this is approving borrowing by the state)
- one city referendum question
In other, larger states (see Washington State, above) there can be even more issues. I understand the draw of wanting to move all that to an electronic format (and electronic voting can be more accessible for people with disabilities, and allows you to easily provide ballots in multiple languages), but of course the security issues are very serious.
posted by anastasiav at 8:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
In general, US elections have a wide variety of questions, including bond issues and all kinds of other questions.
Here in Maine we also use the "fill in the oval" type ballots and I'll vote for the following:
- Governor of my state (choose one)
- US House District 1 (Ranked choice, rank 3 candidates in order of preference)
- US Senate (ranked choice, 3 candidates)
- State Senator (choose one)
- Maine House Representative (choose one)
- Judge of Probate
- Sheriff
- District Attorney (two of three candidates have withdrawn)
- County Commissioner
- City Council Rep
- School Board
- Water District Administrator
- Citizen Initiative referendum (vote yes or no)
- four bond issues (vote yes or no) (this is approving borrowing by the state)
- one city referendum question
In other, larger states (see Washington State, above) there can be even more issues. I understand the draw of wanting to move all that to an electronic format (and electronic voting can be more accessible for people with disabilities, and allows you to easily provide ballots in multiple languages), but of course the security issues are very serious.
posted by anastasiav at 8:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
In Brooklyn, there were like 50 people ahead of me in line to vote, ~15 filling out ballots, and and ~15 more waiting to turn their ballots in. Took about 40 minutes all told. Been voting at this location over 4 years, and I'm not sure I've ever had to wait more than 5 minutes before.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
> Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.
quietly him the Internationale every now and then, just to make clear that red doesnât mean republican.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 9:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
quietly him the Internationale every now and then, just to make clear that red doesnât mean republican.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 9:02 AM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Bob Moore (WaPo)
BREAKING: Border Patrol has postponed itâs Election Day âcrowd control exercise,â per agents at site.
posted by chris24 at 9:04 AM on November 6, 2018 [64 favorites]
BREAKING: Border Patrol has postponed itâs Election Day âcrowd control exercise,â per agents at site.
posted by chris24 at 9:04 AM on November 6, 2018 [64 favorites]
My polling place in VA-11 was waaaaaaay less busy than in 2016, much more in line with 2014 levels. Not shocking since it's a safe blue district (right next to the Wexton/Comstock battleground), to the point where I didn't even realize our Rep had an opponent until last week, and without any local elections since it's an unincorporated area. Rain probably had something to do with it as well, although I've heard from people in more contested districts that the downpour didn't stop lines from forming there.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:07 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:07 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
It was a serious question. We don't use anything like that in the UK. We just have pieces of paper and pencils.
The big difference between (almost all) UK voting and US voting is the length of the ballot.
In a standard election in the UK, you're called on to mark a ballot for your preferred MP, and you're done. (Does not apply to council or other local elections obvs).
In a standard election like this one in the US, it will vary depending on where you live but it's common that you're asked to mark a ballot for
Once you're going to use machines for counting anyway, using machines for voting isn't transparently stupid. Direct recording machines do have a couple of small advantages. Most obviously, in multilingual environments you don't have to worry about how many ballots to print in English and Spanish and Tagalog and Russian and what have you; people just pick their favorite language at the machine. Secondarily, a machine can help voters avoid spoiling their ballot by picking too many selections, and remind voters to vote in every race. These are pretty small-potatoes advantages though.
In practice the direct recording machines haven't aged well and the movement has been pretty clearly towards machine-readable paper ballots, so voting is like taking a standardized test.
It's a shame that the old mechanical machines were comically unsecured and unreliable and that at the end you'd have to have parts custom-machined to repair them. When you pulled that last lever to record your vote and open the little curtain, you knew you had just worked some democracy upon some motherfuckers.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
The big difference between (almost all) UK voting and US voting is the length of the ballot.
In a standard election in the UK, you're called on to mark a ballot for your preferred MP, and you're done. (Does not apply to council or other local elections obvs).
In a standard election like this one in the US, it will vary depending on where you live but it's common that you're asked to mark a ballot for
- US Representative
- US Senator
- Governor
- Lt Governor (usually not a pair with the governor's race)
- State secretary of state
- State attorney general
- Other statewide offices
- State lower chamber legislator
- State upper chamber legislator
- Assorted local offices
- Some kind of judicial elections
- Between zero and twenty or so ballot propositions
Once you're going to use machines for counting anyway, using machines for voting isn't transparently stupid. Direct recording machines do have a couple of small advantages. Most obviously, in multilingual environments you don't have to worry about how many ballots to print in English and Spanish and Tagalog and Russian and what have you; people just pick their favorite language at the machine. Secondarily, a machine can help voters avoid spoiling their ballot by picking too many selections, and remind voters to vote in every race. These are pretty small-potatoes advantages though.
In practice the direct recording machines haven't aged well and the movement has been pretty clearly towards machine-readable paper ballots, so voting is like taking a standardized test.
It's a shame that the old mechanical machines were comically unsecured and unreliable and that at the end you'd have to have parts custom-machined to repair them. When you pulled that last lever to record your vote and open the little curtain, you knew you had just worked some democracy upon some motherfuckers.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
BREAKING: Border Patrol has postponed itâs Election Day âcrowd control exercise,â per agents at site.
They'd already had the authoritarian press photos and buzz, of course.
posted by jaduncan at 9:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
They'd already had the authoritarian press photos and buzz, of course.
posted by jaduncan at 9:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
How to Watch the Midterm Results Without Cable via Lifehacker.
I know there are some links upthread but this looks like a pretty exhaustive collection.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I know there are some links upthread but this looks like a pretty exhaustive collection.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:09 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
My local polling place did not have lines at 8:15am. Granted, I live in the sticks, and in a heavily Republican district (Michele Bachmann's former district, actually). But everyone was organized AF. They had a table for directing people through a line (empty when I walked by, since there was no line), a person at the entrance to the school gym to direct you to either the registration line or the check-in line, and two people at each table with their verbal instructions whittled down to their purest form. Then a person who offered instructions on how to load the ballot into the counting machine (Scantron ballots), and hand you an "I voted" sticker. I was in and out in about 5 minutes.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
it's thanks to metafilter that i learned so much (too much? lol) about the american system, and your ballots will always be one of the genuinely shocking things to learn about (also why i stopped asking why won't you just do manual counting -- which i know happens but i also can see the amount of effort)
otoh i'm from a country who abolished local council elections in the 1970s 'because communists'. avert our fate! we changed governments finally, and it only took us 63 years!!
posted by cendawanita at 9:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
otoh i'm from a country who abolished local council elections in the 1970s 'because communists'. avert our fate! we changed governments finally, and it only took us 63 years!!
posted by cendawanita at 9:15 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
From the low information voter file.
Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"
posted by mikelieman at 9:16 AM on November 6, 2018 [94 favorites]
Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"
posted by mikelieman at 9:16 AM on November 6, 2018 [94 favorites]
ELECTION CAKE NEWS: Salmonella outbreak, tests spur recall of Duncan Hines cake mixes
posted by mcdoublewide at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by mcdoublewide at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
The Jamestown Machine.
Jamestown N.Y., is known for an assortment of things, chief among them is Lucille Ball and furniture making. What many people do not know, however, is that Jamestown used to be one of the countryâs largest manufacturers of lever-based voting machines â the Automatic Voting Machine Co. and its predecessor companies called Jamestown Home for almost a hundred years, from the late 1890s until bankruptcy in 1983. At one time, it had controlled 80% of the mechanical voting machine market. New York City, in fact, used Jamestown made machines in their elections until 2010. There is even a nickname for the Automatic Voting machines among voting machine enthusiasts and collectors. Theyâre simply referred to as the âJamestown Machineâ.
I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
Jamestown N.Y., is known for an assortment of things, chief among them is Lucille Ball and furniture making. What many people do not know, however, is that Jamestown used to be one of the countryâs largest manufacturers of lever-based voting machines â the Automatic Voting Machine Co. and its predecessor companies called Jamestown Home for almost a hundred years, from the late 1890s until bankruptcy in 1983. At one time, it had controlled 80% of the mechanical voting machine market. New York City, in fact, used Jamestown made machines in their elections until 2010. There is even a nickname for the Automatic Voting machines among voting machine enthusiasts and collectors. Theyâre simply referred to as the âJamestown Machineâ.
I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
Once again, my largely white district table had no line to vote, while the adjacent largely Hispanic district table had a line. Id like to think it's because that district's turnout is significantly larger than mine, but they also had half the number of booths to vote in.
posted by davejay at 9:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by davejay at 9:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"
I salute your presumed restraint.
posted by jaduncan at 9:19 AM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
I salute your presumed restraint.
posted by jaduncan at 9:19 AM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
I grew up watching my parents use these and I remain deeply bitter that I never got the chance. I know all the arguments and I don't care, Scantron machines are bullshit in comparison and always will be.
posted by enn at 9:21 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I grew up watching my parents use these and I remain deeply bitter that I never got the chance. I know all the arguments and I don't care, Scantron machines are bullshit in comparison and always will be.
posted by enn at 9:21 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
The big difference between (almost all) UK voting and US voting is the length of the ballot.
For example, the San Diego ballot is so large, it's two extra large pages front and back, and requires extra postage to mail.
Speaking of which, if anyone is in San Diego, a plug for a lesser known race that might be overlooked. Please vote for Matt Brower for Superior Court Judge. The incumbent, Gary Kreep, is a creep.
However, Kreep failed to see the impropriety in many instances of misconduct, such as commenting on an attorney's pregnancy and the physical attractiveness of female public defenders, sharing intimate personal facts about his caretaking of a friend, asking a prostitute whether she did it for the money or the action, calling an adult man "little boy,'' unsuccessfully referencing a person's ethnicity and speaking Spanish to litigants based on their surname, the commission's report says.
He's also a birther:
Kreep, who declined an interview request, has been a highly controversial figure, initially due to his pre-election lawsuits challenging former President Barack Obama's citizenship. Obama was born in Hawaii, but Kreep has continued to question Obama's birthplace in more recent media interviews.
So please vote against thekreep creep.
posted by zabuni at 9:21 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
For example, the San Diego ballot is so large, it's two extra large pages front and back, and requires extra postage to mail.
Speaking of which, if anyone is in San Diego, a plug for a lesser known race that might be overlooked. Please vote for Matt Brower for Superior Court Judge. The incumbent, Gary Kreep, is a creep.
However, Kreep failed to see the impropriety in many instances of misconduct, such as commenting on an attorney's pregnancy and the physical attractiveness of female public defenders, sharing intimate personal facts about his caretaking of a friend, asking a prostitute whether she did it for the money or the action, calling an adult man "little boy,'' unsuccessfully referencing a person's ethnicity and speaking Spanish to litigants based on their surname, the commission's report says.
He's also a birther:
Kreep, who declined an interview request, has been a highly controversial figure, initially due to his pre-election lawsuits challenging former President Barack Obama's citizenship. Obama was born in Hawaii, but Kreep has continued to question Obama's birthplace in more recent media interviews.
So please vote against the
posted by zabuni at 9:21 AM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
serious question from non-US mefite. What is one allowed to say in such a circumstance "where is President Trump listed?' I mean in that level of low info do they even know he is meant to represent the GOP?
posted by Wilder at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Wilder at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
A volunteer group I belong to (not specifically about politics) is about 98% Millenials and younger, and they have been passing along on-the-spot voting tips on the slack channel all morning long. Go Millenials!
posted by maggiemaggie at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by maggiemaggie at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"
"President Trump is not running for reelection this year."
I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
This is where I restate my proposal to supply every polling location with a lever that does nothing but make a loud, satisfying kerchunk noise when pulled. After you vote, you are allowed to pull it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [64 favorites]
"President Trump is not running for reelection this year."
I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
This is where I restate my proposal to supply every polling location with a lever that does nothing but make a loud, satisfying kerchunk noise when pulled. After you vote, you are allowed to pull it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [64 favorites]
"This is a mid-term election. The presidential election isn't until 2020."
posted by Autumnheart at 9:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
For example, the San Diego ballot is so large, it's two extra large pages front and back, and requires extra postage to mail.
the oakland ballot is four pages, three of them front and back, and, once placed in the envelope, can be used as an improvised cudgel for self-defense
posted by murphy slaw at 9:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
the oakland ballot is four pages, three of them front and back, and, once placed in the envelope, can be used as an improvised cudgel for self-defense
posted by murphy slaw at 9:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Trump listed?"
âYou can write him in for every office. Just to be safe.â
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [82 favorites]
âYou can write him in for every office. Just to be safe.â
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:24 AM on November 6, 2018 [82 favorites]
serious question from non-US mefite. What is one allowed to say in such a circumstance "where is President Trump listed?'
I stuck with objective reality. "He's not running this election."
And kept it to myself until the voter had left.
posted by mikelieman at 9:28 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
I stuck with objective reality. "He's not running this election."
And kept it to myself until the voter had left.
posted by mikelieman at 9:28 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
I stuck with objective reality.
bold move, no telling if that would cause a trump voter to enter a furious rage
posted by murphy slaw at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
bold move, no telling if that would cause a trump voter to enter a furious rage
posted by murphy slaw at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
For those curious about the old mechanical voting machines, here is a how-to from NYC using one variety of them.
The ones I'm more familiar with were a little bit different -- you'd walk up to an open curtain, and then pull the big lever to close the curtain and get the machine in its READY TO READ state. Then you'd do your voting and when you pulled the big lever back the other way, that would record your vote and open the curtain again.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
The ones I'm more familiar with were a little bit different -- you'd walk up to an open curtain, and then pull the big lever to close the curtain and get the machine in its READY TO READ state. Then you'd do your voting and when you pulled the big lever back the other way, that would record your vote and open the curtain again.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
FYI for those who don't know, California is really weird when it comes to allowing ballot questions, so there are always 20+, resulting in a long ballot. Massachusetts only has 3 questions this year, which is typical.
posted by Melismata at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Melismata at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Nicole Lafond (TPM): Retiring Rep. Issa Calls It Early: There Will Be A Dem Representing My District
âMy district was never in play this cycle. And so it was never funded and quite frankly we know the results already and there will be a Democrat representing La Jolla to Solana Beach for the first time in a number of years,â he said.posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
ELECTION CAKE NEWS: Salmonella outbreak, tests spur recall of Duncan Hines cake mixes
It took me way too long to realize this wasn't a headline about Duncan Hunter.
posted by melissasaurus at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
It took me way too long to realize this wasn't a headline about Duncan Hunter.
posted by melissasaurus at 9:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
I voted this morning in sunny Alameda, CA. Three-page ballot where you have to draw in the middle of an arrow to vote.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:30 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 9:30 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
What is one allowed to say in such a circumstance "where is President Trump listed?'
"on Epstein's flight logs."
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:30 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
"on Epstein's flight logs."
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:30 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
I would like a voting lever that not only went KER CHUNK but also played a little trumpet fanfare.
Actually my Voting Pony List is like this:
1. Abolish Electoral College
2. Voting is mandatory (with option for None of the Above for the curmudgeons)
3. Voting day is a holiday
4. Everyone is registered automatically at age 18 and you can't lose that right, even if you're in prison, unless you give up citizenship.
5. All states use the same machines/setup/rules
6. Early voting/same day voting/voting by mail are in that setup (also whatever other accomodations are needed for less-abled persons)
7. "I Voted" stickers are regional, so you get a special one depending on where you voted (like stamps!)
8. Voting machines for in-person voting have paper backups.
9. Local businesses are encouraged to set up food trucks and other popup vending outside polling places becuse voting should be fun.
posted by emjaybee at 9:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [97 favorites]
Actually my Voting Pony List is like this:
1. Abolish Electoral College
2. Voting is mandatory (with option for None of the Above for the curmudgeons)
3. Voting day is a holiday
4. Everyone is registered automatically at age 18 and you can't lose that right, even if you're in prison, unless you give up citizenship.
5. All states use the same machines/setup/rules
6. Early voting/same day voting/voting by mail are in that setup (also whatever other accomodations are needed for less-abled persons)
7. "I Voted" stickers are regional, so you get a special one depending on where you voted (like stamps!)
8. Voting machines for in-person voting have paper backups.
9. Local businesses are encouraged to set up food trucks and other popup vending outside polling places becuse voting should be fun.
posted by emjaybee at 9:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [97 favorites]
Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.
It means your ankles are plotting against you - a rebellion in the body politic!
Regarding my photo of the British voting machine, I do take the point that the American system is very different and so the forms we're faced with in each country are different too. What I really had in mind, though, was the delightful simplicity of voting with a stubby pencil on the end of a string, as against the needlessly complicated (and often unreliable) technology used elsewhere in the world.
posted by Paul Slade at 9:40 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
It means your ankles are plotting against you - a rebellion in the body politic!
Regarding my photo of the British voting machine, I do take the point that the American system is very different and so the forms we're faced with in each country are different too. What I really had in mind, though, was the delightful simplicity of voting with a stubby pencil on the end of a string, as against the needlessly complicated (and often unreliable) technology used elsewhere in the world.
posted by Paul Slade at 9:40 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Mod note: A few comments deleted. For those of you arriving from an alternate dimension in which US politics are sane and low-stakes and subject to conventional wisdom: greetings, please enjoy learning about this current place we find ourselves.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [133 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [133 favorites]
Iâm kicking the site a few extra bucks today due to the shit the mods are having/going to deal with. Thanks for giving us a sane place to be today, mods.
posted by greermahoney at 9:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
posted by greermahoney at 9:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
If Ds have a good day in Nevada, it will be in large part thanks to these guys.
@Culinary226
The Culinary Union has registered over 10,300 Culinary Union members & their families to vote since the last presidential election & w/Citizenship Project & @YvannaCancela helped over 650 immigrants become American citizens this year. http://bit.ly/2yQMnL4 #GOTV đ˝ đşđ˛ đł
PIX OF MEMBERS VOTING
posted by chris24 at 9:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [53 favorites]
@Culinary226
The Culinary Union has registered over 10,300 Culinary Union members & their families to vote since the last presidential election & w/Citizenship Project & @YvannaCancela helped over 650 immigrants become American citizens this year. http://bit.ly/2yQMnL4 #GOTV đ˝ đşđ˛ đł
PIX OF MEMBERS VOTING
posted by chris24 at 9:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [53 favorites]
Checking in as a pollworker in Tucson, AZ. Weâve been steady since we opened at 6am. So many more people in our registry book are now early voters. Lots of inactive voter coming in, too (I believe you reach inactive status by not voting in the last two federal elections, you donât get purged from the rolls, but you get a little IA next to your name). Looking forward to catching up with the thread at lunch.
posted by lizjohn at 9:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by lizjohn at 9:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
7. "I Voted" stickers are regional, so you get a special one depending on where you voted (like stamps!)
Your electoral fantasies are coming true!
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Your electoral fantasies are coming true!
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
lizjohn, I've been voting early for a while now, but it was always interesting to see all of the "early ballot" next to names in the book when they'd look me up. It seemed to grow every year. Do "inactive" voters get to cast a ballot? (Tucson represent!)
posted by azpenguin at 9:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by azpenguin at 9:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I miss these voting machines. The ka-chunk of pulling the lever was satisfying indeed.
We had them until about ten years ago. I miss that noise too.
posted by octothorpe at 9:58 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
We had them until about ten years ago. I miss that noise too.
posted by octothorpe at 9:58 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
ANGER IS AN ENERGY
Let fury have the hour, anger can be power
D'you know that you can use it?
posted by kirkaracha at 10:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Let fury have the hour, anger can be power
D'you know that you can use it?
posted by kirkaracha at 10:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
The arguments against hand-counting would be more compelling if the scantron machines were not so bad. They are apparently breaking down all over NYC today. At many polling places the majority of the machines are broken.
posted by enn at 10:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by enn at 10:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
But optical answer sheets - aka scantron - is a simple technology. It's the machine vision version of hand-counting. I'm extremely pro optical counting.
Not surprised NYC's are broken, but lbr that's more a function of NYC than the technology.
posted by juice boo at 10:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Not surprised NYC's are broken, but lbr that's more a function of NYC than the technology.
posted by juice boo at 10:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
NYC's machines are getting at least double their usual use - when i voted at my polling place in BK this morning i had to (however briefly) wait in line because one of the scanners wasnt working AND because of our extra-long ballot this election scan both sheets of my ballot separately, as though they were two different single-page ballots).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:10 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:10 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Currently standing in a line out the door to vote in Nashville, just made it past the 100ft electioneering sign.
Update: Took about 80 minutes in line to vote. Also a pollworker told me that she thought she would be working 6a-9p today if the lines held up into the evening. Thank your pollworkers!
posted by ghharr at 10:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Update: Took about 80 minutes in line to vote. Also a pollworker told me that she thought she would be working 6a-9p today if the lines held up into the evening. Thank your pollworkers!
posted by ghharr at 10:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
I mean, you can blame New York, but a technology is not reliable if it's not reliable under actually-existing conditions. You can make any system work if conditions are perfect; in practice they won't be, and that's where the difference in reliability becomes apparent.
posted by enn at 10:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by enn at 10:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Scantron ballots, when scanned into a lockbox is fully auditable. I like that.
Down machines are a showstopper, and we should have N+1 machines just too carry the load when one goes down. That costs money.
posted by mikelieman at 10:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Down machines are a showstopper, and we should have N+1 machines just too carry the load when one goes down. That costs money.
posted by mikelieman at 10:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
NYC's machines are getting at least double their usual use - when i voted at my polling place in BK this morning i had to (however briefly) wait in line because one of the scanners wasnt working AND because of our extra-long ballot this election scan both sheets of my ballot separately, as though they were two different single-page ballots).
According to various liveblogs I've been checking, it's these factors (high turnout + two sheets per person), plus the sheets sometimes jam the machine when they're not torn apart cleanly, plus it's been pouring rain and some people's ballots are wet which the machines also do not like. It's kind of a perfect storm of issues here.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
According to various liveblogs I've been checking, it's these factors (high turnout + two sheets per person), plus the sheets sometimes jam the machine when they're not torn apart cleanly, plus it's been pouring rain and some people's ballots are wet which the machines also do not like. It's kind of a perfect storm of issues here.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
It's important to note that voting equipment varies wildly by state.
Even within the state, depending. My county in Virginia, Arlington, has our own electoral board responsible for processing our local elections as well as whatever state and federal level questions there are. They have to hew to Virginia law but have a lot of flexibility for how they do things. When the VA government passed a law prohibiting acquiring any more touchscreen equipment our election board supervisor declared she would be using the ones they still owned until they could no longer be repaired and would supplement them with optical scan gear they would run in parallel as needed. Some other regions honored the spirit of the law and just switched over at that find. Arlington didnât until the state legislature mandated it.
posted by phearlez at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Even within the state, depending. My county in Virginia, Arlington, has our own electoral board responsible for processing our local elections as well as whatever state and federal level questions there are. They have to hew to Virginia law but have a lot of flexibility for how they do things. When the VA government passed a law prohibiting acquiring any more touchscreen equipment our election board supervisor declared she would be using the ones they still owned until they could no longer be repaired and would supplement them with optical scan gear they would run in parallel as needed. Some other regions honored the spirit of the law and just switched over at that find. Arlington didnât until the state legislature mandated it.
posted by phearlez at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I am very concerned that my district (MN-8) is going to go from D to R. Our incumbent Rick Nolan retired after beating a tea partier in 2012 then winning two squeakers in a row.
posted by soelo at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by soelo at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
soleo - as a Mac alum ive kinda barely been keeping an eye on Joe Radinovich even though i didnt know him. . . looking at the 538 tracking it seems like the race was close until mid october and its just turned into a runaway since then. what gives?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:22 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:22 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think this Saturday Night Live spoof midterm ad speaks for many of us today.
posted by orange swan at 10:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by orange swan at 10:23 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
When the VA government passed a law prohibiting acquiring any more touchscreen equipment our election board supervisor declared she would be using the ones they still owned until they could no longer be repaired and would supplement them with optical scan gear they would run in parallel as needed.
Huh. I wondered why they still had those cursed touchscreen things in Arlington; some friends were telling me they had to use them in 2016. They seem to have chucked them all in Fairfax County, in favor of the scantron-style readers. Good fucking riddance. Pity they'll never be able to claw back the millions they probably handed those Diebold assholes, though.
The scantron systems seemed to work fine, and this year they had lots of pens sitting around. In the past they didn't (or people wandered off with them), leadingâI can only imagineâto people using their own which probably don't scan as well. Any black ballpoint should work fine, but who knows what people drag out of their purses/pockets if they can't find one on the table.
The most amusing part of voting, for me, is that we do it in an elementary school cafeteria so you actually do the ballot-filling-out seated at slightly undersized tables. I felt like AndrĂŠ the Giant must have felt on an average day at McDonalds.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Huh. I wondered why they still had those cursed touchscreen things in Arlington; some friends were telling me they had to use them in 2016. They seem to have chucked them all in Fairfax County, in favor of the scantron-style readers. Good fucking riddance. Pity they'll never be able to claw back the millions they probably handed those Diebold assholes, though.
The scantron systems seemed to work fine, and this year they had lots of pens sitting around. In the past they didn't (or people wandered off with them), leadingâI can only imagineâto people using their own which probably don't scan as well. Any black ballpoint should work fine, but who knows what people drag out of their purses/pockets if they can't find one on the table.
The most amusing part of voting, for me, is that we do it in an elementary school cafeteria so you actually do the ballot-filling-out seated at slightly undersized tables. I felt like AndrĂŠ the Giant must have felt on an average day at McDonalds.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I am very concerned that my district (MN-8) is going to go from D to R.
Statewide MN is most likely to flip two R's to D's and flip one D to R for a net +1 for D. You are however quite right that you are in the predicted D-to-R district. There's a reason why the MAGA rallies are up there. If I had to guess why the dynamic is what it is, the one word I'd use is Taconite.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Statewide MN is most likely to flip two R's to D's and flip one D to R for a net +1 for D. You are however quite right that you are in the predicted D-to-R district. There's a reason why the MAGA rallies are up there. If I had to guess why the dynamic is what it is, the one word I'd use is Taconite.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:27 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Fun fact about the Jamestown Machines: the sleeve art for the first 10,000 Maniacs EP is a photo of Jamestown Machine employees.
posted by pxe2000 at 10:28 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by pxe2000 at 10:28 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Potential explanations for late changes in MN08:
Stauber got in trouble for using government email wrong (of course). Tina Smith pulled away in the polls around the same time, though, so probably this isn't it.
Local targeted ads look like scenes from horror movies, complete with shakycam and fake-digital distortion. We're pretty civic minded as a whole up here, and these hamfisted attempts at stirring up fear of our neighbors might just be backfiring.
Once people start paying attention, they make the right choice. (I'm going with this one).
posted by dbx at 10:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Stauber got in trouble for using government email wrong (of course). Tina Smith pulled away in the polls around the same time, though, so probably this isn't it.
Local targeted ads look like scenes from horror movies, complete with shakycam and fake-digital distortion. We're pretty civic minded as a whole up here, and these hamfisted attempts at stirring up fear of our neighbors might just be backfiring.
Once people start paying attention, they make the right choice. (I'm going with this one).
posted by dbx at 10:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I had to wait about an hour to vote here in Brooklyn. There were two bottlenecks. One was that each election district only has one physical poll book that must be signed individually by each voter, and my ED was just slammed for some reason. (My entire ED is composed of 8 blocks, so I'd guess ~3000 people tops?) The other bottleneck was at the scanners, of which there were three, all in good working order. The polls weren't understaffed and there weren't any technical issues. I'm really looking forward to seeing the turnout numbers tonight.
posted by phooky at 10:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by phooky at 10:29 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
It's not just ballots that benefit from good design.
Design college pitched in to bring order to polling-place signs - Marianne Combs, Minnesota Public Radio
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Design college pitched in to bring order to polling-place signs - Marianne Combs, Minnesota Public Radio
The signs are the result of a collaboration between the city of Minneapolis and the Minneapolis College of Art and Design. They're meant to make the voting process easier to understand and more efficient.They reflect a consistent design with decisions made to enhance readability (e.g. no signs on pink or green paper, no crowding of words, consistent sign size). Creative Commons licensed and downloadable at https://mcad.edu/votingsigns.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:31 AM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
I GOTV canvassed this weekend for the first time in IL-06 for Casten. Despite a mild social anxiety-induced panic attack, and meeting some obviously canvassing-fatigued residents, I knocked on about 30 doors and got 4 vote plans (or in a couple cases established that they'd already voted). I don't know that I'd be excited to do it again, but it feels good in retrospect.
posted by onehalfjunco at 10:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by onehalfjunco at 10:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I just discovered one of my favorite poets, Tony Hoagland, passed away in October, from pancreatic cancer. In his honor, I share with you a poem of his that I sent to my friend two years ago this month, after the 2016 elections. My friend was distraught at Trump's victory and was teetering on the cusp of a terrible hopelessness. The poem helped.
posted by Aubergine at 10:33 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by Aubergine at 10:33 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Matt Pearce of the LA Times is at the Dodge City polling place that became a national story once it moved to a remote area. The photo in his first tweet is from today, before he knew the county wouldn't let media take photos inside the expo center. Doesn't look very busy considering that it's the sole polling place for 13,000 people.
posted by gladly at 10:34 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by gladly at 10:34 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
mikelieman: Working the polls, I was just asked about the ballot, "Where is President Pussy grabber listed?"
As a death-eater who has been on the Trump/RNC email list for the past two years I can address this: I've had at least 5 separate emails from Team Trump/RNC/GOP in the past 48 hours that explicitly say,
posted by carsonb at 10:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [74 favorites]
As a death-eater who has been on the Trump/RNC email list for the past two years I can address this: I've had at least 5 separate emails from Team Trump/RNC/GOP in the past 48 hours that explicitly say,
Make no mistake: I AM ON THE BALLOT TODAY.Vote today for education, reading comprehension, and our children's futures.
...
Signed,
Your President,
Donald J. Trump
President of the United States
posted by carsonb at 10:36 AM on November 6, 2018 [74 favorites]
Oregon's latest (last?) batch of early ballot counts are up: OR Ballot Count PDF
1.35 million ballots were returned through yesterday, which is 48.9% of the 2.76 million eligible voters. This compares to 1.58M / 61.7% at a similar point in the 2016 election and to 1.09M / 50.2% in the 2014 midterms. Oregon's automatic voter registration went into effect at the start of 2016, so it seems like a pretty big jump in midterm turnout, even with the slight drop in percentage, once you take into account the influx of a bunch of previously unregistered voters. (PDF of historical data if you're interested)
Democrat ballot returns are at 592K / 60.2% vs 422K / 59.4% for Republicans. I think this is a good sign -- my understanding (though I don't have data to back it up) is that in the past few elections Republicans have had better turnout percentages but Democrats have won through their voter registration advantage. Should hopefully help Kate Brown, though it's not clear A) how many moderate Dems Knute Buehler is going to peel off and B) which way those newly registered nonaffliated voters are going to break. I also think it indicates that Measure 106 (ban on public funding for abortion) is going to go down in flames. Measure 102 (allowing public bonds to finance private affordable housing) had bipartisan support when referred from the legislature and will probably pass. I don't think party registration is necessarily indicative of how 103 (ban on taxing groceries), 104 (requiring 60% supermajority for revenue raising other than tax hikes, such as fees and removing tax breaks), and 105 (repeal Oregon's sanctuary law) are going to go. 105 is the measure my progressive friends are most nervous about.
posted by bassooner at 10:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
1.35 million ballots were returned through yesterday, which is 48.9% of the 2.76 million eligible voters. This compares to 1.58M / 61.7% at a similar point in the 2016 election and to 1.09M / 50.2% in the 2014 midterms. Oregon's automatic voter registration went into effect at the start of 2016, so it seems like a pretty big jump in midterm turnout, even with the slight drop in percentage, once you take into account the influx of a bunch of previously unregistered voters. (PDF of historical data if you're interested)
Democrat ballot returns are at 592K / 60.2% vs 422K / 59.4% for Republicans. I think this is a good sign -- my understanding (though I don't have data to back it up) is that in the past few elections Republicans have had better turnout percentages but Democrats have won through their voter registration advantage. Should hopefully help Kate Brown, though it's not clear A) how many moderate Dems Knute Buehler is going to peel off and B) which way those newly registered nonaffliated voters are going to break. I also think it indicates that Measure 106 (ban on public funding for abortion) is going to go down in flames. Measure 102 (allowing public bonds to finance private affordable housing) had bipartisan support when referred from the legislature and will probably pass. I don't think party registration is necessarily indicative of how 103 (ban on taxing groceries), 104 (requiring 60% supermajority for revenue raising other than tax hikes, such as fees and removing tax breaks), and 105 (repeal Oregon's sanctuary law) are going to go. 105 is the measure my progressive friends are most nervous about.
posted by bassooner at 10:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
It was pouring here in DC's Ward 4, which just meant the people who were there, were there.
I've been here ten years and I'm still blown away by how simple our ballots are compared to California's.
posted by aspersioncast at 10:38 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I've been here ten years and I'm still blown away by how simple our ballots are compared to California's.
posted by aspersioncast at 10:38 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
One thing I think we'll do next election is swap our "VOTE" yard sign for a "VOTE EARLY" sign. And I think this is a strategic shift the Democrats need to work on for 2020. There must be thousands of voters who intend to vote on Tuesday, arrive at the polls and see a long line, and conclude they don't have time for that in their busy day. And that's totally reasonable -- it's a work day and people may be able to take 20 minutes but not 80 minutes. So assuming the problem of lines is not solved in 2020, and may be even worse, we've got to get more people to the polls early. It's great to drive potential voters to the polls on a Tuesday, but equally good would be pushing everyone who can to vote early and make it easier for the low-info, low-free-time Tuesday voters to successfully vote.
posted by chortly at 10:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by chortly at 10:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Same-day registered and voted in Illinois. The lady registering me knew the folks that we bought our house from. City of Neighborhoods indeed.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 10:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Make no mistake: I AM ON THE BALLOT TODAY.
Picture via google for your confusion/enjoyment/astonishment.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 10:48 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Picture via google for your confusion/enjoyment/astonishment.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 10:48 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Philadelphia City Council has some new concepts for "I Voted" stickers.
posted by Automocar at 10:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Automocar at 10:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Long Lines to Vote Are a Sign Democracy Isn't Working - Katherine Krueger, Splinter News
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [81 favorites]
High voter turnout is good! But long lines are actually quite bad; theyâre a massive, blinking red sign that democracy is not working. We need to make it as easy for people to vote as possible, so people without to luxury to do so arenât forced to be late to work, parents arenât forced to make childcare arrangements, and the elderly and people with disabilities arenât forced to contend with standing for long periods of time. Long lines are a sign of dysfunctionâa sign that, for instance, the funding wasnât there to hire more poll workers or get more voting machines.Emphasis mine.
âŚ
[The] New York Timesâ Upshot blog detailed on Election Day 2016, [how long] lines depress future election turnout.
âŚ
Lines are not something to be celebrated. Theyâre our last sign, before the results come in, of all the systemic barriers this country imposes on people trying to exercise their civic duty. Celebrate people wanting to engage and change our political system, not the physical manifestation of how badly our government wants to discourage them from doing so.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [81 favorites]
For those claiming paper ballots are unworkable, here's the front of a Minnesota ballot. (scroll down a bit into that thread to see the back side with all the judicial races. There have been past ballots with even more races.) It's really not an onerous process.
-Fill in the bubbles (pen is fine)
-feed into the optical scanner on your way out.
- paper ballot is retained for recount <--this is probably the most important feature. See Franken/Coleman or Dayton/Emmer for two recent examples of where this has worked
it doesn't take very long to fill out. The check in/same day registration station is usually a bigger choke point than the wait for an empty booth station
posted by cnelson at 10:52 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
-Fill in the bubbles (pen is fine)
-feed into the optical scanner on your way out.
- paper ballot is retained for recount <--this is probably the most important feature. See Franken/Coleman or Dayton/Emmer for two recent examples of where this has worked
it doesn't take very long to fill out. The check in/same day registration station is usually a bigger choke point than the wait for an empty booth station
posted by cnelson at 10:52 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
>> we've got to get more people to the polls early. >>
There is one day to vote in my state, if one is not in need of an absentee ballot. No mail voting, no early voting. Today is IT. So what about us? I'd love a push for more options along with unfucking/de-gerrymandering the districting. In the meantime, don't forget the elaborate state by state differences.
posted by cage and aquarium at 10:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
There is one day to vote in my state, if one is not in need of an absentee ballot. No mail voting, no early voting. Today is IT. So what about us? I'd love a push for more options along with unfucking/de-gerrymandering the districting. In the meantime, don't forget the elaborate state by state differences.
posted by cage and aquarium at 10:54 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Billy Rubin: Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.
It obviously means that the blue in your outfit is way outnumbering the red, and the red is being stepped on. It doesn't get much clearer than that.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:59 AM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
It obviously means that the blue in your outfit is way outnumbering the red, and the red is being stepped on. It doesn't get much clearer than that.
posted by Too-Ticky at 10:59 AM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Philadelphia City Council has some new concepts for "I Voted" stickers.
One of those should be "I voted: â41-33"
posted by cmfletcher at 11:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
One of those should be "I voted: â41-33"
posted by cmfletcher at 11:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Several years ago, Ohioans got to vote on their preferred "I Voted" sticker in an online poll. Luckily we did not end up with a Boaty McBoatface sticker, but got instead one that says "I [red heart-esque silhouette of the state] Voting."
posted by zakur at 11:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by zakur at 11:00 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
surely you meant to say Votey McVoteface
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [82 favorites]
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [82 favorites]
I voted this morning in sunny Alameda, CA. Three-page ballot where you have to draw in the middle of an arrow to vote.
Forgot to mention my vote was slightly delayed because the person in front of me walked off with the Official Voting Pen. And then I walked off with the pen after I voted.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Forgot to mention my vote was slightly delayed because the person in front of me walked off with the Official Voting Pen. And then I walked off with the pen after I voted.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Many Pittsburghers are rocking these special "Stronger than Hate" voting stickers.
I did not get one of those, or any sticker at all, at my polling place, so my son made me a post-it note, which I am proudly wearing.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
I did not get one of those, or any sticker at all, at my polling place, so my son made me a post-it note, which I am proudly wearing.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
From Wired -- Alert: Track Election Day Misinformation Right Here
(I couldn't stay away from this thread!)
posted by filthy light thief at 11:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Facebook Blocks More Accounts on the Eve of ElectionsEmphasis mine, because WHAT THE FUCK. "Yeah, we'll just do a little Show of Force in this Hispanic district. Oh, it's election day? Hmm, didn't realize that, sorry everyone!"
Late Monday night, Facebook announced it had identified dozens of accounts on Facebook and Instagram that âmay be engaged in coordinated inauthentic behaviorâ after US law enforcement alerted the company to some online activity they believe might be linked to foreign entities.
...
Customs and Border Patrol Plans, Then Cancels, a Controversial Show of Force
Thereâs no outright deception here, but plenty of room for misunderstanding. On Monday, the CBP announced that it would engage in a âmobile field force demonstration,â showing off its crowd control expertiseâin a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood in El Paso, on Election Day. After civil rights groups expressed concerns that the exercise could double as voter intimidation, the Texas Civil Rights Project confirmed that CBP called it off an hour before the scheduled start time.
(I couldn't stay away from this thread!)
posted by filthy light thief at 11:03 AM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Forgot to mention my vote was slightly delayed because the person in front of me walked off with the Official Voting Pen. And then I walked off with the pen after I voted.
Nooooo!! I went through poll worker training in Alameda and they are only sent 20 PENS to last the whole day! #vote #butgivebackthepen
posted by greermahoney at 11:04 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Nooooo!! I went through poll worker training in Alameda and they are only sent 20 PENS to last the whole day! #vote #butgivebackthepen
posted by greermahoney at 11:04 AM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I'm not sure if it's a bigger or smaller lift than a new Voting Right Act, but we need a universal ban on anyone holding whichever state or local office puts them in charge of election administration while also running for office in that election. It's the most blatant conflict of interest imaginable and there's no reason to let anyone duplicate Brian Kemp's corruption ever again.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:05 AM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:05 AM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
Nooooo!! I went through poll worker training in Alameda and they are only sent 20 PENS to last the whole day! #vote #butgivebackthepen
At my polling place the pens were rubber-banded to the tables. Made it a little awkward to fill in the circles, but at least the pens couldn't walk away.
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
At my polling place the pens were rubber-banded to the tables. Made it a little awkward to fill in the circles, but at least the pens couldn't walk away.
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:08 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I find the stickers a little patronizing.
I understand that other people don't feel this way.
posted by aspersioncast at 11:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I understand that other people don't feel this way.
posted by aspersioncast at 11:11 AM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
WaPo: Women have started putting âI votedâ stickers on Susan B. Anthonyâs tombstone.
posted by Hypatia at 11:12 AM on November 6, 2018 [66 favorites]
posted by Hypatia at 11:12 AM on November 6, 2018 [66 favorites]
Me too aspersioncast.
posted by Melismata at 11:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 11:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I find the stickers a little patronizing.
I understand that other people don't feel this way.
We couldnât fit that on a sticker.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
I understand that other people don't feel this way.
We couldnât fit that on a sticker.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:13 AM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
There were 21 judicial races on my ballot this morning. I'm ashamed to admit I was only able to bone up on ten of them prior to the election. I left the others blank, but for all but one of those, there was no opponent to the incumbent. I was unable to find information on all the races in one place, but next time I will start earlier on that part of the election so I don't ever have to leave a choice blank again.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
If Dems get any trifectas that they didn't have before, a very high priority for the legislative calendar needs to be to make voting as easy as possible. For example, in AZ, that would mean getting rid of the "ballot harvesting" law, standardize voting equipment across the state, access to track your ballot like what we have in Pima, no voter purging from the rolls without extensive verification and documentation, etc. (The voter ID law isn't going to be easily changeable because that was a ballot measure, and voter approved laws have special safeguards here.) Thing is, compared to other states, we actually have it pretty good here. But it can always be better. There needs to be a nationwide focus on laws designed to stop people from voting.
posted by azpenguin at 11:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 11:14 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
âThe purpose of capitalism is to allow our society to become better. A culture that opens doors for and nurtures the people we care about. The issues of our time are education, corruption, access, infrastructure, civility and the downstream effects of the work we do.â â Seth Godin
posted by robbyrobs at 11:16 AM on November 6, 2018
posted by robbyrobs at 11:16 AM on November 6, 2018
For those curious about the New York malfunctions, a decent liveblog is available here.
The 'humidity' problems causing malfunctions in NC, mentioned above, are several orders of magnitude more severe in NYC: lines are so long that voters are filling their ballots out while waiting in hour-plus lines outside their polling places, sitting on the ground or using each other as writing surfaces, and getting rained on while doing so, causing the scanners to choke on the wet ballots.
As optical systems go, New York's isn't terrible and usually functions about as well as you can expect, under normal, indoor, not-sodden-with-rainwater conditions. In addition, this year's double-sided ballot is not what the machines are designed to scan. Ballots are printed on pads and poll workers have to tear one off for each voter, but because they're thicker this is difficult, with poll workers accidentally ripping and spoiling ballots and slowing down the line. And then the ballot takes voters longer to fill out, because there are three rather complex proposals with paragraph-long descriptions each. And then paper shards from the torn ballots get stuck in the scanners, and everything breaks, and voters are told they need to put their ballots in an "emergency box" for later scanning or counting, and voters are, understandably, pretty concerned and sceptical about this idea. (It's the standard procedure for when the machines go down, but given the current climate it's easy to see why people are suspicious.)
And this is in addition to all the standard NY election problems, like missing poll books and insufficient quantities of machines at polling places and voters mysteriously purged from the rolls, and a few new problems, like asshole Board of Elections officials undermining efforts to expand translation services for voters by refusing to let the paid translators stand close enough to help anyone. Susan Lerner, the executive director of the non-partisan voting rights organisation that trained the translators, showed up at one polling place "with a tape measure, urging a poll site coordinator and police officer to allow the translators to move into a more visible location. The officer refused to use the tape measure, and insisted that the translators were close enough."
posted by halation at 11:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
The 'humidity' problems causing malfunctions in NC, mentioned above, are several orders of magnitude more severe in NYC: lines are so long that voters are filling their ballots out while waiting in hour-plus lines outside their polling places, sitting on the ground or using each other as writing surfaces, and getting rained on while doing so, causing the scanners to choke on the wet ballots.
As optical systems go, New York's isn't terrible and usually functions about as well as you can expect, under normal, indoor, not-sodden-with-rainwater conditions. In addition, this year's double-sided ballot is not what the machines are designed to scan. Ballots are printed on pads and poll workers have to tear one off for each voter, but because they're thicker this is difficult, with poll workers accidentally ripping and spoiling ballots and slowing down the line. And then the ballot takes voters longer to fill out, because there are three rather complex proposals with paragraph-long descriptions each. And then paper shards from the torn ballots get stuck in the scanners, and everything breaks, and voters are told they need to put their ballots in an "emergency box" for later scanning or counting, and voters are, understandably, pretty concerned and sceptical about this idea. (It's the standard procedure for when the machines go down, but given the current climate it's easy to see why people are suspicious.)
And this is in addition to all the standard NY election problems, like missing poll books and insufficient quantities of machines at polling places and voters mysteriously purged from the rolls, and a few new problems, like asshole Board of Elections officials undermining efforts to expand translation services for voters by refusing to let the paid translators stand close enough to help anyone. Susan Lerner, the executive director of the non-partisan voting rights organisation that trained the translators, showed up at one polling place "with a tape measure, urging a poll site coordinator and police officer to allow the translators to move into a more visible location. The officer refused to use the tape measure, and insisted that the translators were close enough."
posted by halation at 11:18 AM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
My problem with voting stickers is that if I wore one in my bleeding liberal area, I'd immediately be bombarded with SO WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR? WHAT? YOU DIDN'T VOTE FOR THE BLEEDING LIBERAL CANDIDATE WHO HAS TOO MANY WACKY IDEAS?? YOU'RE A BAD PERSON!! Voting is very private to me, and I'm not thrilled about advertising about what I believe in. But yeah, I can see why they're important to educate others on how important it is to vote.
posted by Melismata at 11:19 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 11:19 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
standardize voting equipment across the state
By the way, different standards and methods of voting could be a good issue to bust they myth that "local control" is always a Good Thing.
posted by Gelatin at 11:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
By the way, different standards and methods of voting could be a good issue to bust they myth that "local control" is always a Good Thing.
posted by Gelatin at 11:20 AM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
âThe purpose of capitalism is to allow our society to become better. A culture that opens doors for and nurtures the people we care about. The issues of our time are education, corruption, access, infrastructure, civility and the downstream effects of the work we do.â â Seth Godin
posted by robbyrobs at 11:16 AM on November 6 [+] [!]
This reminds me of a conversation I had with my late father back when I was in college and very quickly turning my back on the conservative political philosophy we had shared. I asked him what the purpose of the economy was: should it maximize individual wealth or maximize well-being of the populace? I could tell it was a difficult question for him, but he valiantly tried to make a case for the former as leading to the latter, while I was becoming surer and surer by the day that the two were in conflict.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:25 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 11:16 AM on November 6 [+] [!]
This reminds me of a conversation I had with my late father back when I was in college and very quickly turning my back on the conservative political philosophy we had shared. I asked him what the purpose of the economy was: should it maximize individual wealth or maximize well-being of the populace? I could tell it was a difficult question for him, but he valiantly tried to make a case for the former as leading to the latter, while I was becoming surer and surer by the day that the two were in conflict.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:25 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
>My problem with voting stickers is that...
There's nothing on a voter sticker advertising party affiliation, and anyone asking a question like that is 100% breaking the social contract.
posted by Donald Trump Sex Nightmare at 11:25 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
There's nothing on a voter sticker advertising party affiliation, and anyone asking a question like that is 100% breaking the social contract.
posted by Donald Trump Sex Nightmare at 11:25 AM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
@JenaFriedman: It feels like all of America is awaiting the results of a biopsy.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [109 favorites]
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:26 AM on November 6, 2018 [109 favorites]
By the way, different standards and methods of voting could be a good issue to bust they myth that "local control" is always a Good Thing
But this is on balance a Good Thing, since it makes election results MUCH harder to hack.
posted by OnceUponATime at 11:29 AM on November 6, 2018
But this is on balance a Good Thing, since it makes election results MUCH harder to hack.
posted by OnceUponATime at 11:29 AM on November 6, 2018
Mod note: A few comments deleted. Let's not have some weird fight about stickers? I get it that we're all antsy today, but that antsiness needs to not turn into grouching at other mefites here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:32 AM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
Although I have a policy against discussing politcs at work, today I dressed in shades of blue (trousers, shirt, sweater). It isn't overt, but it is deliberate.
Wore a shirt with blue on it and blue socks to work today. Wasn't thinking about the above, but maybe my subconscious was trying to tell me something...
Also, please, please don't let the gerrymanders, intimidators, and gee-too-bad-that-voting-machine-is-broken/voting-place-is-closed folks win today.
posted by gtrwolf at 11:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Wore a shirt with blue on it and blue socks to work today. Wasn't thinking about the above, but maybe my subconscious was trying to tell me something...
Also, please, please don't let the gerrymanders, intimidators, and gee-too-bad-that-voting-machine-is-broken/voting-place-is-closed folks win today.
posted by gtrwolf at 11:37 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
It's pretty clear that long lines are in the interest of dissuading people from voting, but I have to wonder if anyone's thought about the positive effects of the smartphone.  Standing in line is a lot less onerous when you can watch cat videos and chat with friends while you wait.  It could be a one of the few unalloyed positive knock-on effects of the iPhone.
I'm genuinely interested in the idea, though it lends itself a little too well to clickbait titles on websites so I imagine the answer would get swamped in things like "Can the iPhone Save Democracy?" and other silliness.  Still though, I've noticed it myself when standing in queues that they're a lot less annoying now because I can just yank out my phone and read something.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:41 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
I'm genuinely interested in the idea, though it lends itself a little too well to clickbait titles on websites so I imagine the answer would get swamped in things like "Can the iPhone Save Democracy?" and other silliness.  Still though, I've noticed it myself when standing in queues that they're a lot less annoying now because I can just yank out my phone and read something.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:41 AM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Here's more on the cancelled El Paso maneuvers.
Border Patrol cancels El Paso crowd-control exercise amid concerns about voter suppression
Border Patrol cancels El Paso crowd-control exercise amid concerns about voter suppression
EL PASO â U.S. Customs and Border Protection abruptly canceled a crowd-control exercise it had planned near a Hispanic neighborhood in El Paso on Tuesday after critics raised concerns that the presence of so many armed border agents could discourage voting.posted by scalefree at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
The agency had planned to stage a âmobile field force demonstrationâ Tuesday morning at the Paso del Norte border crossing, in an area adjacent to a neighborhood known as Chihuahuita with about 100 modest homes.
After lawmakers, activists and the American Civil Liberties Union questioned the decision to conduct the exercise on Election Day, Border Patrol agents said it had been postponed.
The controversy flared as voters began going to the polls in a city where high turnout is especially crucial to the Senate campaign of Rep. Beto OâRourke, the El Paso Democratic candidate challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
CBP and Homeland Security officials rejected allegations that the training exercises had any relation to the election.
But Terri Burke, executive director for the ACLU of Texas, said the timing of the crowd-control exercise was âsuspicious,â and she welcomed the decision to scrap it.
Jail time for intent to disenfranchise or spread misleading election info needs to become a priority federally. Ideally citizens can issue the request for prosecution themselves.
posted by benzenedream at 11:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
posted by benzenedream at 11:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
The purpose of the economy, or at least any Government interaction with it is to "promote the general welfare".
Since I started carrying my ACLU mini-constitution around it's been surprising to me how many of these kinds of questions can be answered not just by referring to the constitution but specifically the preamble:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
So if some feature of the economy is NOT leading to the promotion of the general welfare it's specifically our government's job to address it.
posted by VTX at 11:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Since I started carrying my ACLU mini-constitution around it's been surprising to me how many of these kinds of questions can be answered not just by referring to the constitution but specifically the preamble:
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
So if some feature of the economy is NOT leading to the promotion of the general welfare it's specifically our government's job to address it.
posted by VTX at 11:43 AM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Standing in line is a lot less onerous when you can watch cat videos and chat with friends while you wait.
The laws on this vary, state by state. Depending on the zeal/motivations/training level of any given poll worker, phones might actually prevent people from voting, if their use in line gets people kicked out (or if the policy is selectively enforced and used as an excuse to kick certain voters out).
posted by halation at 11:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
The laws on this vary, state by state. Depending on the zeal/motivations/training level of any given poll worker, phones might actually prevent people from voting, if their use in line gets people kicked out (or if the policy is selectively enforced and used as an excuse to kick certain voters out).
posted by halation at 11:45 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
We have our first winter storm up here in NW North Dakota. Last time I checked the wind chill was at a balmy minus two. Nonetheless, we voted. With any luck this weather might convince a few GOP voters (who have been told again and again that Cramer has this is the bag) to stay home. C'mon Heidi, let's get this done!
posted by Ber at 11:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Ber at 11:46 AM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
I have to wonder if anyone's thought about the positive effects of the smartphone.
In at least some parts of the waiting areas they aren't allowed in some states, as recording/camera devices are forbidden.
posted by Candleman at 11:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
In at least some parts of the waiting areas they aren't allowed in some states, as recording/camera devices are forbidden.
posted by Candleman at 11:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
My problem with voting stickers is that if I wore one in my bleeding liberal area, I'd immediately be bombarded with SO WHO DID YOU VOTE FOR? WHAT? YOU DIDN'T VOTE FOR THE BLEEDING LIBERAL CANDIDATE WHO HAS TOO MANY WACKY IDEAS?? YOU'RE A BAD PERSON!! Voting is very private to me, and I'm not thrilled about advertising about what I believe in. But yeah, I can see why they're important to educate others on how important it is to vote.
What an intrusive rude-ass question.
"Oh, I voted for Yownbidness, first name Mindya."
posted by leotrotsky at 11:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
What an intrusive rude-ass question.
"Oh, I voted for Yownbidness, first name Mindya."
posted by leotrotsky at 11:47 AM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Since I started carrying my ACLU mini-constitution around it's been surprising to me how many of these kinds of questions can be answered not just by referring to the constitution but specifically the preamble
Spotted the non-GenXer.
posted by The Tensor at 11:48 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Spotted the non-GenXer.
posted by The Tensor at 11:48 AM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
By the next election, assuming we have one, I plan on stocking up on a bunch of historical buttons and such to wear just to confuse people.
Not sure if I want the MCGOVERN/SHRIVER button set or the altogether more rare MCGOVERN/EAGLETON one.
posted by delfin at 11:49 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Not sure if I want the MCGOVERN/SHRIVER button set or the altogether more rare MCGOVERN/EAGLETON one.
posted by delfin at 11:49 AM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
One thing I think we'll do next election is swap our "VOTE" yard sign for a "VOTE EARLY" sign. And I think this is a strategic shift the Democrats need to work on for 2020.
I think this is a shift they are already working on, at least where I am. I got phoned/texted/flyered constantly to try to convince me to vote early.
lizjohn: Checking in as a pollworker in Tucson, AZ. Weâve been steady since we opened at 6am. So many more people in our registry book are now early voters.
azpenguin: I've been voting early for a while now, but it was always interesting to see all of the "early ballot" next to names in the book when they'd look me up.
This was something I noticed too, as I was signing the book--almost every other signature space on the page said EARLY BALLOT. And even so it was busier at the polling place than I'm used to seeing.
Tucson represent!
posted by egregious theorem at 11:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I think this is a shift they are already working on, at least where I am. I got phoned/texted/flyered constantly to try to convince me to vote early.
lizjohn: Checking in as a pollworker in Tucson, AZ. Weâve been steady since we opened at 6am. So many more people in our registry book are now early voters.
azpenguin: I've been voting early for a while now, but it was always interesting to see all of the "early ballot" next to names in the book when they'd look me up.
This was something I noticed too, as I was signing the book--almost every other signature space on the page said EARLY BALLOT. And even so it was busier at the polling place than I'm used to seeing.
Tucson represent!
posted by egregious theorem at 11:50 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Mother Jones: Equipment Malfunctions and Voting Machine Shortages Bring Long Lines in Georgia
posted by tarshish bound at 11:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by tarshish bound at 11:51 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
My problem with voting stickers
No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.
posted by adamg at 11:53 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.
posted by adamg at 11:53 AM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
There's a trending hashtag on Twitter called #GOPVoteBlue. Long-time Republicans self-reporting about how they voted for Democrats this cycle. If you need some cheering up today, that's a good one to read.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 11:55 AM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
Jail time for intent to disenfranchise or spread misleading election info needs to become a priority federally. Ideally citizens can issue the request for prosecution themselves.
The danger here is that such laws can be used against GOTV efforts. There's a long history where organizers have been charged with felonies for helping people vote, and creating new crimes that can be used to target canvassers is dangerous.
If you go around telling everyone that Democrats vote on Wednesday, yeah that's a problem. But a law like that could also be used by Republicans to to send a canvasser to jail for stuff like mistakenly saying the polls are open from 7am-8pm when they actually close at 7pm.
posted by zachlipton at 11:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
The danger here is that such laws can be used against GOTV efforts. There's a long history where organizers have been charged with felonies for helping people vote, and creating new crimes that can be used to target canvassers is dangerous.
If you go around telling everyone that Democrats vote on Wednesday, yeah that's a problem. But a law like that could also be used by Republicans to to send a canvasser to jail for stuff like mistakenly saying the polls are open from 7am-8pm when they actually close at 7pm.
posted by zachlipton at 11:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
It feels like Groundhog Election Day. The same problems arise, usually in the same places; the same solutions are proposed, and all of that mostly gets put away for two years.
What ought to be clear is that were the US a country moving to democracy with third-party observers, this would not be judged a free and fair election. Certain states and certain parts of states would pass, but the basic foundation of a free and fair election is consistent standards transparently applied across a polity, and that simply does not happen in most states. Instead, we see the vestiges of the pseudo-democracy under Jim Crow with which Americans are most familiar.
posted by holgate at 11:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
What ought to be clear is that were the US a country moving to democracy with third-party observers, this would not be judged a free and fair election. Certain states and certain parts of states would pass, but the basic foundation of a free and fair election is consistent standards transparently applied across a polity, and that simply does not happen in most states. Instead, we see the vestiges of the pseudo-democracy under Jim Crow with which Americans are most familiar.
posted by holgate at 11:56 AM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
One thing about the hour+ wait at my solid blue polling place in Brooklyn where there is nothing remotely controversial on the ballot: I am glad that everyone is exercising their right to vote, but all the action here is during the primary, when I was out of there in fifteen minutes.
posted by maggiemaggie at 11:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by maggiemaggie at 11:57 AM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Voters at one Brooklyn polling place in Greenpoint have been waiting over four hours to vote. They have been keeping their spirits up and passing the time by making sketches, by doing The Wave, and calling the Board of Elections to complain -- one man, Hassam Asif, told a journalist the BoE'd hung up on eight (8) times.
posted by halation at 11:59 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by halation at 11:59 AM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
@WPXICara: UPDATE: Man arrested for threatening to âshoot upâ a Washington County [PA] polling place just charged with felony terroristic threats. Polling workers tell me he became angry when they told him heâs not registered to vote. Allegedly said he was going to return with a gun.
I mean, no, don't do that. Making terrositic threats is bad. But how about same-day voter registration, so you can tell someone "here, fill out this form and we'll get it fixed right now" instead of "go away; you can't vote?" Better for democracy and for not having people make violent threats at polling places.
posted by zachlipton at 12:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
I mean, no, don't do that. Making terrositic threats is bad. But how about same-day voter registration, so you can tell someone "here, fill out this form and we'll get it fixed right now" instead of "go away; you can't vote?" Better for democracy and for not having people make violent threats at polling places.
posted by zachlipton at 12:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
especially in the inland northwest, I'm pretty sure nothing will come of it.
man of twists and turns, thank you for the fantastic comment / roundup on WA state races (I flagged it thusly). This is my first major election in Pierce County and you've given me some ideas about what to hammer on Murray and Cantwell about after we get past today.
posted by missmobtown at 12:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
man of twists and turns, thank you for the fantastic comment / roundup on WA state races (I flagged it thusly). This is my first major election in Pierce County and you've given me some ideas about what to hammer on Murray and Cantwell about after we get past today.
posted by missmobtown at 12:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
One understated benefit of using scantrons is that pretty much everybody has literally had classes on filling them in.
In my area of New Jersey we've got booths pretty similar to the old style ones, with light up buttons and a little chime, but no lever. And they're not analogous to anything else anywhere in my life. They're like a cross between an ATM and a vending machine, but not similar enough to either, so there's no familiarity, no crossover competency. It's not that you can't figure it out, but it doesn't have to be that way, and it's one more thing that can make voting feel alien and uncomfortable.
The first few times I used an ATM I was monstrously nervous about pressing the wrong button. Same thing the first time I used a Wawa touch screen. Same thing every time I vote because I only do it every two years, so there's no chance to practice.
Anyway if we're talking about imaginary ballot design I've been imagining a chopped up ballot, like if you printed stacks of individual paper slips for each race. So I'd sign my name in the book, get a number, and grab a slip for Senate, House district 7, state leg district 1, Public Question 1, etc. Each slip would be as simple as the British ballot. Then I vote and put it in the box for that specific race.
They're cheap and easy to print, on standard commercial printers. It doesn't require us to trust Diebold or literally anyone else. It could open up flexibility in polling places. (Where I live, if I go three blocks in any direction I'm voting on a different set of races.) They could be read by machine, by hand, or both.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
In my area of New Jersey we've got booths pretty similar to the old style ones, with light up buttons and a little chime, but no lever. And they're not analogous to anything else anywhere in my life. They're like a cross between an ATM and a vending machine, but not similar enough to either, so there's no familiarity, no crossover competency. It's not that you can't figure it out, but it doesn't have to be that way, and it's one more thing that can make voting feel alien and uncomfortable.
The first few times I used an ATM I was monstrously nervous about pressing the wrong button. Same thing the first time I used a Wawa touch screen. Same thing every time I vote because I only do it every two years, so there's no chance to practice.
Anyway if we're talking about imaginary ballot design I've been imagining a chopped up ballot, like if you printed stacks of individual paper slips for each race. So I'd sign my name in the book, get a number, and grab a slip for Senate, House district 7, state leg district 1, Public Question 1, etc. Each slip would be as simple as the British ballot. Then I vote and put it in the box for that specific race.
They're cheap and easy to print, on standard commercial printers. It doesn't require us to trust Diebold or literally anyone else. It could open up flexibility in polling places. (Where I live, if I go three blocks in any direction I'm voting on a different set of races.) They could be read by machine, by hand, or both.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Anarchy in the UK!
SMH. Took me all day.
posted by petebest at 12:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
SMH. Took me all day.
posted by petebest at 12:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.
As one of the replies to that tweet mentions, this is actually illegal, although the law isn't enforced very often.
posted by teraflop at 12:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
As one of the replies to that tweet mentions, this is actually illegal, although the law isn't enforced very often.
posted by teraflop at 12:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Couple deleted; the Mitch McConnell photo is from 2014.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
538's Seth Masket has a liveblog post that deserves to be shouted from the rooftops:
The forecast Iâm most confident in for todayâs elections is that, if Democrats have a remotely good night, Trump will claim that some sort of voter fraud took place in one or several races. This is especially likely if Democrats take over one or both chambers of Congress, in which case Trump may make such claims in order to call into question the legitimacy of any new Democratic majority. Heâs already hinted at this, and he said in 2016 that heâd only accept the results of that yearâs presidential election if he won it. He even claimed voter fraud after he won.posted by Tsuga at 12:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [83 favorites]
My hope is that various news organizations have thoroughly considered just how they will report (or not report) on Trumpâs claims. For those that havenât, I would strongly encourage reviewing Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reiflerâs piece on how to counter misinformation in journalism. Among the key recommendations in that piece:Donât repeat false claims. If Trump claims that undocumented immigrants are voting in Texas, just quote-tweeting him without contextualizing his claims by discussing the evidence or lack of evidence supporting them helps spread the misinformation.If Trump does make claims along these lines, thereâs a good chance Fox News will repeat and amplify them, which Trump will may then cite the next time he repeats his claims, creating a Trump-Fox feedback loop. But other news organizations donât have to add to that. And they certainly donât need to lend credence to baseless claims just to appear unbiased.
Reduce partisan cues. Itâs not enough to say, âTrump says voter fraud occurred, Democrats disagree.â To most readers, that means either side could be right and the parties are just disagreeing as usual. If Trumpâs claims need to be debunked, it can be done in an authoritative and nonpartisan manner.
The New York Times dials are back for the House and Senate.
"We expect we will begin around 7:30 p.m. or 8 p.m. Eastern time, after votes have been counted in some early-reporting races."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
"We expect we will begin around 7:30 p.m. or 8 p.m. Eastern time, after votes have been counted in some early-reporting races."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I have a real bad feeling about Missouri. McCaskill has been increasingly flailing and desperate sounding in the last week here, it really makes me wonder if their internal numbers have cratered.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
The Dials Are Back
Nope. Nope nope nope nope nope nope.
Nuh-uh. Noooooo. NĂźpe.
posted by petebest at 12:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
Nope. Nope nope nope nope nope nope.
Nuh-uh. Noooooo. NĂźpe.
posted by petebest at 12:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
Huh, I never thought of this. Today I'm wearing a blue shirt but also red socks. I'm not sure what that means.
... when red goes low, blue goes high?
posted by Graygorey at 12:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
... when red goes low, blue goes high?
posted by Graygorey at 12:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
But how about same-day voter registration, so you can tell someone "here, fill out this form and we'll get it fixed right now" instead of "go away; you can't vote?"
In other words, Minnesota. All you need is a neighbor to vouch for you. "Yeah, he lives across the street from me," is all I had to say to get a young man registered at the polling place.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
In other words, Minnesota. All you need is a neighbor to vouch for you. "Yeah, he lives across the street from me," is all I had to say to get a young man registered at the polling place.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
"Hey Chunk! Do the NYT Polls Dial Wiggle!"
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 12:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 12:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
No problem here. A number of local businesses are offering free or discounted stuff to people with I Voted stickers.
As one of the replies to that tweet mentions, this is actually illegal, although the law isn't enforced very often.
Probably why places such as the awesome Mohawk Bend in the Echo Park neighborhood of Los Angeles have a "buy one beer, get a second for a penny" deal going on.
posted by sideshow at 12:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
As one of the replies to that tweet mentions, this is actually illegal, although the law isn't enforced very often.
Probably why places such as the awesome Mohawk Bend in the Echo Park neighborhood of Los Angeles have a "buy one beer, get a second for a penny" deal going on.
posted by sideshow at 12:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I voted today! It's my first major election in my new precinct, so I can't say what is usual, but compared to the primaries the turnout was way up: every booth was taken when I walked in and I had to wait a bit before voting. (Still in and out in ~10-15 minutes, though).
-Things that made me smile: a woman who walked in just ahead of me with her teenage daughter who was voting for the first time, the mom announced proudly.
-Like someone else had also mentioned, this was the first time ever that in addition to the usual pack of senior citizens who volunteer, there were some high school students, too. I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!
posted by TwoStride at 12:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
-Things that made me smile: a woman who walked in just ahead of me with her teenage daughter who was voting for the first time, the mom announced proudly.
-Like someone else had also mentioned, this was the first time ever that in addition to the usual pack of senior citizens who volunteer, there were some high school students, too. I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!
posted by TwoStride at 12:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
The forecast Iâm most confident in for todayâs elections is that, if Democrats have a remotely good night, Trump will claim that some sort of voter fraud took place in one or several races. This is especially likely if Democrats take over one or both chambers of Congress
Says (or rather, will likely say -- he's already hinted at it) the guy who lost the popular vote by nearly three million and eked out an Electoral College victory thanks to interference by the Russians.
We've argued before whether it's harmful to call Trump's victory illegitimate, but its well worth knowing that in 2016 or now, he wouldn't hesitate to call a clear expression of the popular will "voter fraud." The man is a crook and a traitor.
posted by Gelatin at 12:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Says (or rather, will likely say -- he's already hinted at it) the guy who lost the popular vote by nearly three million and eked out an Electoral College victory thanks to interference by the Russians.
We've argued before whether it's harmful to call Trump's victory illegitimate, but its well worth knowing that in 2016 or now, he wouldn't hesitate to call a clear expression of the popular will "voter fraud." The man is a crook and a traitor.
posted by Gelatin at 12:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!
That is too adorable.
posted by maggiemaggie at 12:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
That is too adorable.
posted by maggiemaggie at 12:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
He'll call it voter fraud even if it's a landslide. He's already been floating phrases about how Democrats are a wild mob looking to storm the castle, and not, you know, voters.
posted by Autumnheart at 12:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 12:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Trump had the voter fraud excuse all lined up and ready to go in 2016 when he thought he was going to lose.
posted by PenDevil at 12:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by PenDevil at 12:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Trump calling out voter fraud would be a good distraction from anything else that might happen in the next few days.
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Voters at one Brooklyn polling place in Greenpoint have been waiting over four hours to vote.
Hope they're getting that free pizza from Pizza to the Polls!
posted by robotdevil at 12:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Hope they're getting that free pizza from Pizza to the Polls!
posted by robotdevil at 12:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Voted in Arlington, VA this morning. I don't think we have a single contested race of any significant consequence on the ballot -- ironic that a "purple" state may very well have the least-consequential ballot in the entire darn country.
Lines were pretty short -- I was in and out in about 10 minutes. They had way more tables than I've seen at this polling place in the past (and way more than I'd ever seen at the much larger precinct I used to vote at in DC).
Everything was done on Scantron, and fed into an electronic reader. Seems to be the new norm around here (and seems like an entirely-reasonable system as long as they have accommodations for folks who can't use this kind of ballot). There was a news crew from Japan filming a report at the precinct.
TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.
posted by schmod at 12:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Lines were pretty short -- I was in and out in about 10 minutes. They had way more tables than I've seen at this polling place in the past (and way more than I'd ever seen at the much larger precinct I used to vote at in DC).
Everything was done on Scantron, and fed into an electronic reader. Seems to be the new norm around here (and seems like an entirely-reasonable system as long as they have accommodations for folks who can't use this kind of ballot). There was a news crew from Japan filming a report at the precinct.
TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.
posted by schmod at 12:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
When this day has passed, let us remember to ask why Ivanka Trump is brokering voting machines, made in China.
posted by OyĂŠah at 12:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
posted by OyĂŠah at 12:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
Trump calling voter fraud without proof is also causing confusion and paranoia over what is and is not voter fraud - I was accused of voter fraud a couple of times when canvassing and textbanking.
posted by dinty_moore at 12:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by dinty_moore at 12:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Gonna run out favorites for the first time since 2016, here. I asked the woman working the register at the grocery store in E Austin if she'd voted. One more door knocked, I guess. Her shift ended at 1300, and she said she'd planned on voting, but apparently didn't know that the nearest polling place (only open since 2016) was LITERALLY ACROSS THE STREET. Like, it's RIGHT THERE.
I've gotten several texts from friends today with either "I voted" stickers, or "I'm going with 5 of my friends to vote!"
Whatever this turns out to be, here, in TX, it looks like it's gonna mean something. Just ask Willie Nelson.
Would you vote against Willie Nelson? Yeah. Me neither.
posted by rp at 12:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
I've gotten several texts from friends today with either "I voted" stickers, or "I'm going with 5 of my friends to vote!"
Whatever this turns out to be, here, in TX, it looks like it's gonna mean something. Just ask Willie Nelson.
Would you vote against Willie Nelson? Yeah. Me neither.
posted by rp at 12:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
I'm pretty sure that's the objective dinty_moore. Basically he's trying to define any and all political participation by non-Republicans as voter fraud.
To the Republicans, Democrats are inherently illegitimate.
I think the article from 2014 Not a Tea Party, a Confederate Party is still entirely accurate. On a fundamental level they really do see themselves as Real Americans and us as, at best, semi-tolerated quasi-foreigners who are permitted to exist but certainly not permitted to have any political influence. To them only a Republican victory is legitimate because, they don't view us as equal partners in America but rather as a cancerous foreign body that must be expelled or at least walled off from all right thinking people.
posted by sotonohito at 12:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
To the Republicans, Democrats are inherently illegitimate.
I think the article from 2014 Not a Tea Party, a Confederate Party is still entirely accurate. On a fundamental level they really do see themselves as Real Americans and us as, at best, semi-tolerated quasi-foreigners who are permitted to exist but certainly not permitted to have any political influence. To them only a Republican victory is legitimate because, they don't view us as equal partners in America but rather as a cancerous foreign body that must be expelled or at least walled off from all right thinking people.
posted by sotonohito at 12:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
I just checked in with the students in my lab. They are all voting AND one of them had registered 250 sorority sisters to vote for the first time - these kids are the 18-21 demographic. YAY!
posted by bluesky43 at 12:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [95 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 12:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [95 favorites]
why Ivanka Trump is brokering voting machines, made in China
In the interests of accuracy, while she has gotten Chinese trademark approval for voting machines, she is not "brokering" anything -- said machines are purely notional at the moment.
posted by neroli at 12:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
In the interests of accuracy, while she has gotten Chinese trademark approval for voting machines, she is not "brokering" anything -- said machines are purely notional at the moment.
posted by neroli at 12:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I think every election there's a story about Philly's weird polling places (houses, the water department's testing lab, a hoagie shop, the mummer's museum...) but it does make it really easy to vote. Some of the ones in houses in the very car-centered northeast are there because otherwise some people would have to travel nearly a mile to get to theirs. Mine's probably 500 feet from my house, in the longshoreman's union hall.
If you want to track turnout in the city, someone's doing that here based on submitted voter numbers. So far looks encouraging, extra high turnout by UPenn and Drexel.
posted by sepviva at 12:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
If you want to track turnout in the city, someone's doing that here based on submitted voter numbers. So far looks encouraging, extra high turnout by UPenn and Drexel.
posted by sepviva at 12:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I was checked in by a very serious and professional high school kid wearing what was clearly his best dress shirt. I was so delighted by how enthusiastic but earnest he was!
In Philly you sign the thing and then get a sticker saying ready to vote which, in my polling place, you gave to an equally earnest and bespectacled high school girl.
I didn't realize that I had to get the sticker and then give it to the girl, and then the poll worker was trying to give me the sticker to give to the girl, and I was sort of motioning for the poll worker just to give the darn sticker to the kid herself, because I was using my hands to wheel myself to the voting booth.
The earnest girl kind of blurted "No you have to give me the sticker" in the tone of voice that you could hear somebody saying, "No, don't push that launch button in the nuclear warhead silo."
I couldn't stop grinning at her.
posted by angrycat at 1:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
In Philly you sign the thing and then get a sticker saying ready to vote which, in my polling place, you gave to an equally earnest and bespectacled high school girl.
I didn't realize that I had to get the sticker and then give it to the girl, and then the poll worker was trying to give me the sticker to give to the girl, and I was sort of motioning for the poll worker just to give the darn sticker to the kid herself, because I was using my hands to wheel myself to the voting booth.
The earnest girl kind of blurted "No you have to give me the sticker" in the tone of voice that you could hear somebody saying, "No, don't push that launch button in the nuclear warhead silo."
I couldn't stop grinning at her.
posted by angrycat at 1:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
Next few hours are going to be tough...
C'mon America. RESIST!!!
Plz
posted by Windopaene at 1:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
C'mon America. RESIST!!!
Plz
posted by Windopaene at 1:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
on the lighter side, submitted for your approval: the best canvassing story of this election
posted by murphy slaw at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Yesterday I canvassed a woman in PA whoplease read the whole thread, it is a marvel
-was wearing a Panda onesie
-IDâs as a â3rd party voterâ
-Hates both Trump and Obama
-LOVED George W Bush (last person she voted for)
-Supports Oprah for President
-#1 issue: âmothers killing their children.â NOT abortion, infanticide.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Texas is not going to be defined by our fears.' U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke votes at his polling station in El Paso.
I'm not in Texas but Beto O'Rourke makes me feel better too.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
I'm not in Texas but Beto O'Rourke makes me feel better too.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
So it sounds like the likely result of all the ratfucking in Georgia is that it's going to go to a run-off. Is there anything the rest of us could do to help ensure that the runoff doesn't get rat-fucked?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I am panicking a bit about McCaskill, too. I'm text-banking for her again this afternoon. It's better than stress eating all the leftover Halloween candy in the house.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 1:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by the turtle's teeth at 1:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Beto O'Rourke is the kind of person and ran the kind of campaign that should be rewarded, especially over a loathsome slug like Ted Cruz. If Cruz wins I'm going to be very disappointed in Texas.
I may even go so far as to mess with Texas.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [70 favorites]
I may even go so far as to mess with Texas.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [70 favorites]
Heâs already hinted at this, and he said in 2016 that heâd only accept the results of that yearâs presidential election if he won it. He even claimed voter fraud after he won.
That was Guccifer 2.0's pre-election message as well; the final count of the GRU indictment describes efforts to hack into state election and vendor systems, and to spearphish those who oversee elections. That count is as notable for what it doesn't talk about -- any consequences of those hacking attempts -- as for what it does say.
Seth Masket is right to suspect that the 2016 "rigged by Democrats" playbook may finally be deployed, and also right to suspect that the press is not prepared to handle it well.
posted by holgate at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
That was Guccifer 2.0's pre-election message as well; the final count of the GRU indictment describes efforts to hack into state election and vendor systems, and to spearphish those who oversee elections. That count is as notable for what it doesn't talk about -- any consequences of those hacking attempts -- as for what it does say.
Seth Masket is right to suspect that the 2016 "rigged by Democrats" playbook may finally be deployed, and also right to suspect that the press is not prepared to handle it well.
posted by holgate at 1:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.
The lack of lines in Arlington is a function of where you live in the county and the time you voted. This photo is from the Central Library precinct in Arlington early this morning. I also did not have lines when I voted at 9 AM this morning in Arlington, just off of Lee Highway. Compare and contrast to the consistent long lines to vote at my former apartment complex in Bailey's Crossroads (in Alexandria), both poorer and browner than Arlington.
I don't see how inequities in polling machines/line time are not a violation of the equal protection clause, to be honest. Long lines are an atrocity.
posted by longdaysjourney at 1:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
The lack of lines in Arlington is a function of where you live in the county and the time you voted. This photo is from the Central Library precinct in Arlington early this morning. I also did not have lines when I voted at 9 AM this morning in Arlington, just off of Lee Highway. Compare and contrast to the consistent long lines to vote at my former apartment complex in Bailey's Crossroads (in Alexandria), both poorer and browner than Arlington.
I don't see how inequities in polling machines/line time are not a violation of the equal protection clause, to be honest. Long lines are an atrocity.
posted by longdaysjourney at 1:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
so uh yeah this seems like it might be a design flaw: USB stick and scanner controls left unsecured and voter-accessible on at least one Brooklyn machine. (I mean, I get why it's unlocked, people have been doing restarts and maintenance all day, but jesus)
Meanwhile in Classic Neurotic New Yorker Stereotypes: most places in the US just have Election Day bake sales, but on the Upper West Side, it's therapy booths
posted by halation at 1:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Meanwhile in Classic Neurotic New Yorker Stereotypes: most places in the US just have Election Day bake sales, but on the Upper West Side, it's therapy booths
posted by halation at 1:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Sadly, a Beto victory is still a **VERY** unlikely outcome.
I'm more concerned with McCaskill, frankly she wasn't a super likely victory either, but she had better odds than Beto, and losing one more D in the Senate (even one like her) is going to hurt. Manchin isn't looking so hot either.
We'll see. The odds were always for the Republicans holding the Senate, the only real question being how big their majority would be. Keeping it razor thin helps.
posted by sotonohito at 1:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I'm more concerned with McCaskill, frankly she wasn't a super likely victory either, but she had better odds than Beto, and losing one more D in the Senate (even one like her) is going to hurt. Manchin isn't looking so hot either.
We'll see. The odds were always for the Republicans holding the Senate, the only real question being how big their majority would be. Keeping it razor thin helps.
posted by sotonohito at 1:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
So it sounds like the likely result of all the ratfucking in Georgia is that it's going to go to a run-off. Is there anything the rest of us could do to help ensure that the runoff doesn't get rat-fucked?
The problem with the runoff (besides the fact that the whole 50% rule was designed to try to prevent minority candidates from winning state-wide races) is that it eliminates the Libertarian candidate, Ted Metz, who is basically Brian Kemp but pro-marijuana. Obviously, with that platform, Metz appeals almost exclusively to white men, who one expects will go with identity politics and vote for Kemp in the runoff.
I see very little any of us can do about this except hope Stacey wins outright today.
posted by hydropsyche at 1:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
The problem with the runoff (besides the fact that the whole 50% rule was designed to try to prevent minority candidates from winning state-wide races) is that it eliminates the Libertarian candidate, Ted Metz, who is basically Brian Kemp but pro-marijuana. Obviously, with that platform, Metz appeals almost exclusively to white men, who one expects will go with identity politics and vote for Kemp in the runoff.
I see very little any of us can do about this except hope Stacey wins outright today.
posted by hydropsyche at 1:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
YeeeeeeAaah the nausea just kicked in
I just realized, though: if somehow we get killed again, Iâm not going to believe it was legitimate. Like I really wonât.
Thatâs...also scary
posted by schadenfrau at 1:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
I just realized, though: if somehow we get killed again, Iâm not going to believe it was legitimate. Like I really wonât.
Thatâs...also scary
posted by schadenfrau at 1:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
Manchin isn't looking so hot either.
Much as I hate him, Manchin losing would represent an almost unprecedented polling error. 538 has Manchin +7.7 and RCP average has +5. Morrissey hasn't led in any poll since May.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Much as I hate him, Manchin losing would represent an almost unprecedented polling error. 538 has Manchin +7.7 and RCP average has +5. Morrissey hasn't led in any poll since May.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Exit polls should be dropping soon! Remember, exit polls are better than real results because they tell you the same information only sooner!!!
posted by Justinian at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 1:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Election Results Pages from the Secretaries of all States and Territories. All pages linked are unofficial results unless otherwise noted. If I've messed up a time or gotten information wrong, please do say something!
Alabama polls close at 7:00 or 8:00 pm EST depending on area.
Alaska polls close at 12 am EST.
Arizona polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Arkansas polls close at 8:30 pm EST.
California semi-official general election results. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Colorado polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Connecticut Archive of results from past elections, as I could not find a live results tracker. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Delaware polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Florida polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Georgia archive page. Polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Hawaii polls close at 12:00 am EST.
Idaho polls close at either 10:00 or 11:00 pm EST depending on area.
Illinois' BoE does not have a live tracker as other states do, apparently. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Indiana polls close at 6:00 or 7:00 pm depending on your area.
Iowa has an archive page from previous elections. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Kansas polls close at 8:00 or 8:30 pm EST depending on your location. Sorry you have to look at Kobach's face if you visit that page.
Kentucky polls close at 6:00 or 7:00 pm EST depending on area.
Louisiana polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Maine has an archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Maryland has an informational page without a live tracker. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Massachusetts Election Division website, which does not have a vote tally tracker. Polls close at 8:00 EST.
Michigan polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 depending on area.
Minnesota archive/informational page. Polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Mississippi archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Missouri polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Montana archive page. Polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Nebraska polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Nevada polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
New Hampshire polls close at 7:00 or 8:00 pm EST depending on location.
New Jersey polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
New Mexico polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
New York polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
North Dakota polls close at 7:00, 8:00, or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Ohio polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
Oklahoma polls close at 8 pm EST.
Oregon ballots must be in by 11:00 pm EST in most places in the state.
Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Rhode Island polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
South Carolina polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
South Dakota polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on location.
Tennessee archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Texas polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Utah polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Vermont polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Virginia polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Washington ballots must be in by t 11:00 pm EST.
West Virginia polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
Wisconsin polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Wyoming polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Washington DC archive site. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
It seems that there are already results from Guam, but I am having difficulties finding results sites for Puerto Rico and American Samoa. I was able to find some information about the election in the the Northern Mariana Islands and a results page for the US Virgin Islands.
The jitters have really started to kick now for me. Still recovering from the last general...
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 1:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [48 favorites]
Alabama polls close at 7:00 or 8:00 pm EST depending on area.
Alaska polls close at 12 am EST.
Arizona polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Arkansas polls close at 8:30 pm EST.
California semi-official general election results. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Colorado polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Connecticut Archive of results from past elections, as I could not find a live results tracker. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Delaware polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Florida polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Georgia archive page. Polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Hawaii polls close at 12:00 am EST.
Idaho polls close at either 10:00 or 11:00 pm EST depending on area.
Illinois' BoE does not have a live tracker as other states do, apparently. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Indiana polls close at 6:00 or 7:00 pm depending on your area.
Iowa has an archive page from previous elections. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.
Kansas polls close at 8:00 or 8:30 pm EST depending on your location. Sorry you have to look at Kobach's face if you visit that page.
Kentucky polls close at 6:00 or 7:00 pm EST depending on area.
Louisiana polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Maine has an archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Maryland has an informational page without a live tracker. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Massachusetts Election Division website, which does not have a vote tally tracker. Polls close at 8:00 EST.
Michigan polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 depending on area.
Minnesota archive/informational page. Polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Mississippi archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Missouri polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Montana archive page. Polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Nebraska polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Nevada polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
New Hampshire polls close at 7:00 or 8:00 pm EST depending on location.
New Jersey polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
New Mexico polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
New York polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
North Dakota polls close at 7:00, 8:00, or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Ohio polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
Oklahoma polls close at 8 pm EST.
Oregon ballots must be in by 11:00 pm EST in most places in the state.
Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Rhode Island polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
South Carolina polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
South Dakota polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on location.
Tennessee archive page. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
Texas polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Utah polls close at 10:00 pm EST.
Vermont polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Virginia polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Washington ballots must be in by t 11:00 pm EST.
West Virginia polls close at 7:30 pm EST.
Wisconsin polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Wyoming polls close at 9:00 pm EST.
Washington DC archive site. Polls close at 8:00 pm EST.
It seems that there are already results from Guam, but I am having difficulties finding results sites for Puerto Rico and American Samoa. I was able to find some information about the election in the the Northern Mariana Islands and a results page for the US Virgin Islands.
The jitters have really started to kick now for me. Still recovering from the last general...
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 1:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [48 favorites]
How credible, to the average American (not just the Fox News-watching Trump loyalists), would all the voter fraud "news" be, though?
It doesn't have to be credible. It just has to be a use of executive branch powers and the headline-grabbing capacity of the presidency without comparable power structures to push back at it. That's one of the problems of strong presidentialism.
As Brian Beutler and Josh Marshall have said in recent days, there isn't any real doubt about which party will receive most votes for House races, only whether those votes translate into a majority. If after two years of organisation and mobilisation and fundraising -- two years of politics as a kind of chronic condition -- there turns out to be no electoral consequence, then what comes next? It wouldn't be a continuation of the status quo, but would instead even further empower those in charge.
posted by holgate at 1:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
It doesn't have to be credible. It just has to be a use of executive branch powers and the headline-grabbing capacity of the presidency without comparable power structures to push back at it. That's one of the problems of strong presidentialism.
As Brian Beutler and Josh Marshall have said in recent days, there isn't any real doubt about which party will receive most votes for House races, only whether those votes translate into a majority. If after two years of organisation and mobilisation and fundraising -- two years of politics as a kind of chronic condition -- there turns out to be no electoral consequence, then what comes next? It wouldn't be a continuation of the status quo, but would instead even further empower those in charge.
posted by holgate at 1:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
The Calm Place (NYT link). If you need to chill.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Autumnheart: He'll call it voter fraud even if it's a landslide.
Not just even -- especially. What he says will come down to his mood. Supposing Republicans somehow pull off a House win, then even in the midst of his pleasure he'll probably make noises about fraud then (remember, that's what he said about Hillary's popular vote lead). If Democrats win reasonably well as expected, he might just complain generically without levying a specific accusation. But if it's a blue tsunami, he'll insist that's all the more reason to shout "rigged!" and he'll do it because he'll be that much more angry.
I think there's a common kind of misconception this will play well to, something I've actually seen as much on the left as on the right: that there's some kind of centralized Thing, a person or group, that counts and certifies All The Votes. That's one reason many people express worry that FiveThirtyEight's basically optimistic predictions must not be taking the many Republican-helping swindles into account (such as suppression and Russian interference). In fact, that site has had some very solid analysis of that stuff, including a scary piece back in April I won't link to. But aside from that, those factors (probably) shouldn't be expected to Change That Thing That Has All The Votes At The End. The factors are mostly baked in already (with the particularly scary exception of outright hacking). We can project turnout because we already know where the suppression will be, what the troll campaigns have been, and so forth.
Seeing more comments roll in, I should amend that to say I don't think anything like a majority of Americans will buy the notion that fraud happened. I'm just saying there's a segment to whom it will sound plausible.
Relating to "fraud", on the subject of what the public thinks about voter restrictions, the mix is kind of interesting: Americans tend to support voter ID by a high margin, but otherwise believe pretty strongly in just about every way of making voting easier, e.g same-day registration (even 55% of Republicans, I think, which probably has overlap with the Republicans who want Medicare for All), extended voting periods, national holiday, etc. I'd call that utopian-minded bourgeoise bias, wherein ID requirements have never felt burdensome at other times in life, but standing in line and such always has.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Not just even -- especially. What he says will come down to his mood. Supposing Republicans somehow pull off a House win, then even in the midst of his pleasure he'll probably make noises about fraud then (remember, that's what he said about Hillary's popular vote lead). If Democrats win reasonably well as expected, he might just complain generically without levying a specific accusation. But if it's a blue tsunami, he'll insist that's all the more reason to shout "rigged!" and he'll do it because he'll be that much more angry.
I think there's a common kind of misconception this will play well to, something I've actually seen as much on the left as on the right: that there's some kind of centralized Thing, a person or group, that counts and certifies All The Votes. That's one reason many people express worry that FiveThirtyEight's basically optimistic predictions must not be taking the many Republican-helping swindles into account (such as suppression and Russian interference). In fact, that site has had some very solid analysis of that stuff, including a scary piece back in April I won't link to. But aside from that, those factors (probably) shouldn't be expected to Change That Thing That Has All The Votes At The End. The factors are mostly baked in already (with the particularly scary exception of outright hacking). We can project turnout because we already know where the suppression will be, what the troll campaigns have been, and so forth.
Seeing more comments roll in, I should amend that to say I don't think anything like a majority of Americans will buy the notion that fraud happened. I'm just saying there's a segment to whom it will sound plausible.
Relating to "fraud", on the subject of what the public thinks about voter restrictions, the mix is kind of interesting: Americans tend to support voter ID by a high margin, but otherwise believe pretty strongly in just about every way of making voting easier, e.g same-day registration (even 55% of Republicans, I think, which probably has overlap with the Republicans who want Medicare for All), extended voting periods, national holiday, etc. I'd call that utopian-minded bourgeoise bias, wherein ID requirements have never felt burdensome at other times in life, but standing in line and such always has.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
There are already electoral consequences, in the form of massive voter turnout.
It's important to remember that the GOP took decades to patiently and persistently create this situation, and what worked for them will work for us too.
posted by Autumnheart at 1:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
It's important to remember that the GOP took decades to patiently and persistently create this situation, and what worked for them will work for us too.
posted by Autumnheart at 1:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
I'm traveling, so I voted early in NY. Cynthia Nixon had still been listed as the working families candidate online, but had been replaced with cuomo on the ballot. i wrote her in.
posted by brujita at 1:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by brujita at 1:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Iowa has an archive page from previous elections. Polls close at 11:00 pm EST.Unless I'm confused, which I may be, Iowa polls close at 10:00 PM EST, which is 9:00 PM Central Time.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Texas polls close at 8:00 or 9:00 pm EST depending on area.
Most of them will be on the 8 pm EST side, because only a tiny sliver of Texas is in the Mountain time zone (although that sliver includes Beto's home town of El Paso).
posted by emjaybee at 1:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Most of them will be on the 8 pm EST side, because only a tiny sliver of Texas is in the Mountain time zone (although that sliver includes Beto's home town of El Paso).
posted by emjaybee at 1:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I feel like that list of poll-closing times would be more effective if the times were given in local time. There really isn't a reason for someone in Iowa or California to need to know when their poll closes in Eastern Standard Time.
posted by Autumnheart at 1:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 1:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
And let's get it started...
James Lambert (DKElections)
First Dem flip of the night: Lou Leon Guerrero wins Guam's gubernatorial election. The GOP held this office for the past 8 years.
Guam elects first female Governor - Lou Leon Guerrero
posted by chris24 at 1:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [108 favorites]
James Lambert (DKElections)
First Dem flip of the night: Lou Leon Guerrero wins Guam's gubernatorial election. The GOP held this office for the past 8 years.
Guam elects first female Governor - Lou Leon Guerrero
posted by chris24 at 1:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [108 favorites]
Florida polls close at 7:00 pm EST.
Most of Florida. The panhandle area is in Central and closes an hour later, as it's 7 pm local time when the polls close. So, Florida will wait until at least 8 EST to start releasing data.
posted by PearlRose at 1:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Most of Florida. The panhandle area is in Central and closes an hour later, as it's 7 pm local time when the polls close. So, Florida will wait until at least 8 EST to start releasing data.
posted by PearlRose at 1:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
As goes Guam, so goes the nation!
posted by Thorzdad at 1:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [72 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 1:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [72 favorites]
NEW: An amazing stat given to me by Davidson County Elections Administrator Jeff Roberts just now. Election Day vote totals across Nashville's 35 largest precincts have already surpassed the Election Day turnout at those precincts in the 2016 election. That's massive turnout.
12:30 pm
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 2:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
Tucson pollworker checking in again! Weâve stayed busy, and most surprising of all is the number of people who havenât voted in years coming in to find out where they have to go to vote. They gave us a hotline to call to look up voter precincts, so most voters we send down the street to their precinct.
I just checked Snapchat, and one of my student (college) workers drove all the way up to Scottsdale to vote! And she got back in time for her 8am class!
posted by lizjohn at 2:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
I just checked Snapchat, and one of my student (college) workers drove all the way up to Scottsdale to vote! And she got back in time for her 8am class!
posted by lizjohn at 2:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
"F*ck you Miss Hedwig, I'm going to Guam!"
posted by sixswitch at 2:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by sixswitch at 2:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Voted in Arlington, VA this morning. I don't think we have a single contested race of any significant consequence on the ballot -- ironic that a "purple" state may very well have the least-consequential ballot in the entire darn country.
I would argue that the two items on the ballot looking to carve out exceptions in the tax code are significant but I've got a serious crank-on for what I perceive as the camel's nose in the tent that way. They're going to California us one widow at a time. But at least they're not looking to fuck with the state constitution to limit people's rights.
TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.
I haven't been able to poll work the last four years or so but even in 2008 and 2012 we had long stretches with no lines. There'd be a burst in the morning with the crowd who wanted to get it done before work and come 10a it's a ghost town where there's rarely more than one voter in the room at a given time. That stretches out till around 5 but even then we never had lines more than four or five deep. The biggest bottleneck was the little laminated cards the poll 'book' person gives the voter to take to the ballot issuer; we would forever be having to dash those back over to the folks checking people in.
With in-person absentee voting becoming more and more popular and VA's clause allowing you to do so simply by claiming (no proof required) you'll be out of the county for most of the day for work, I'd wager that morning crush has diminished every election year.
posted by phearlez at 2:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I would argue that the two items on the ballot looking to carve out exceptions in the tax code are significant but I've got a serious crank-on for what I perceive as the camel's nose in the tent that way. They're going to California us one widow at a time. But at least they're not looking to fuck with the state constitution to limit people's rights.
TBH, I'm a little nervous that folks may be thinking that Arlington is "safe" and stayed home. Either that, or our polls are just well-run, and the lack of lines is just a sign of competence.
I haven't been able to poll work the last four years or so but even in 2008 and 2012 we had long stretches with no lines. There'd be a burst in the morning with the crowd who wanted to get it done before work and come 10a it's a ghost town where there's rarely more than one voter in the room at a given time. That stretches out till around 5 but even then we never had lines more than four or five deep. The biggest bottleneck was the little laminated cards the poll 'book' person gives the voter to take to the ballot issuer; we would forever be having to dash those back over to the folks checking people in.
With in-person absentee voting becoming more and more popular and VA's clause allowing you to do so simply by claiming (no proof required) you'll be out of the county for most of the day for work, I'd wager that morning crush has diminished every election year.
posted by phearlez at 2:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Re: Tennessee, if Taylor Swift delivers a Democratic Senate majority I will of course be thrilled, but also, it'd be the most 2018 thing that could ever possibly happen.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
I feel like that list of poll-closing times would be more effective if the times were given in local time. There really isn't a reason for someone in Iowa or California to need to know when their poll closes in Eastern Standard Time.
This page lists closing times in Eastern, Central, Mountain, Pacific, Alaska, and Hawaii time.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
This page lists closing times in Eastern, Central, Mountain, Pacific, Alaska, and Hawaii time.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I would argue that the two items on the ballot looking to carve out exceptions in the tax code are significant but I've got a serious crank-on for what I perceive as the camel's nose in the tent that way. They're going to California us one widow at a time.
I was trying to explain to my wife why this was bad idea the last time they did this, and now we're going to go farther. They're sneaking tax exemptions into the state constitution under the cover of sympathetic faces. How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever? Really? How many degrees of separation do you need to be from a veteran to never pay taxes again? 1st cousins? Once removed? 10th? Kevin Bacon?
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I was trying to explain to my wife why this was bad idea the last time they did this, and now we're going to go farther. They're sneaking tax exemptions into the state constitution under the cover of sympathetic faces. How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever? Really? How many degrees of separation do you need to be from a veteran to never pay taxes again? 1st cousins? Once removed? 10th? Kevin Bacon?
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Washington ballots must be in by t 11:00 pm EST.
That's incorrect. WA ballots have to be turned in to a ballot box by 8PM on election day, or postmarked no later than election day if mailed. We'll have ballots dribbling in for days, which could make knife-edge WA-08 linger for quite a while.
posted by gurple at 2:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
That's incorrect. WA ballots have to be turned in to a ballot box by 8PM on election day, or postmarked no later than election day if mailed. We'll have ballots dribbling in for days, which could make knife-edge WA-08 linger for quite a while.
posted by gurple at 2:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
NY voting lines: a picture essay
There is literally no good reason for this state not to embrace early voting, but the State Senate just hasn't felt like it, and the resultant disenfranchising chaos has helped them keep their jobs, which keeps them blocking early voting, so here we are. At least polls stay open til 9pm EST -- of course, that's no guarantee that they'll actually let people vote, but...
posted by halation at 2:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
There is literally no good reason for this state not to embrace early voting, but the State Senate just hasn't felt like it, and the resultant disenfranchising chaos has helped them keep their jobs, which keeps them blocking early voting, so here we are. At least polls stay open til 9pm EST -- of course, that's no guarantee that they'll actually let people vote, but...
posted by halation at 2:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
538 liveblog posted A Cheat Sheet For The House, by ranking by Democratic win probability, so you can see (and extrapolate) as results come in!
posted by the man of twists and turns at 2:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by the man of twists and turns at 2:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
First Dem flip of the night: Lou Leon Guerrero wins Guam's gubernatorial election. The GOP held this office for the past 8 years.
Guam elects first female Governor - Lou Leon Guerrero
And if I understand it the first majority female legislature (10 of 15 legislators are female based on unofficial results)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Guam elects first female Governor - Lou Leon Guerrero
And if I understand it the first majority female legislature (10 of 15 legislators are female based on unofficial results)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever?
For people who hate taxes more than they love their spouse this seems like a bad incentive system
posted by benzenedream at 2:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
For people who hate taxes more than they love their spouse this seems like a bad incentive system
posted by benzenedream at 2:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Jail time for intent to disenfranchise or spread misleading election info needs to become a priority federally. Ideally citizens can issue the request for prosecution themselves.
There are laws (usually against corruption) where citizens can initiate a private lawsuit for public malfeasance and collect a percentage of penalties/fines/settlements, right?
It's not too early to look forward to 2020, and I think a bipartisan Fair Elections agenda is a good start. Is the League of Women Voters or some other group available to spearhead this?
1) Early voting everywhere (ahem, New York), absentee/mail vote on demand without need to show cause (and encourage all your friends to vote early)
2) Email or text confirmation of your early vote's acceptance, as Oregon already does; also notification of any problem so you can fix it
3) Make the Veteran's Day holiday the national voting day. Honor the troops, they fought for your freedom, etc. etc.
4) Motor voter
5) Malicious prosecution suits against Kemp and others prosecuting people for helpign voters
6) Voting rights restored to convicts when they've paid their debt to society
I'm sure there are others....
posted by msalt at 2:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
There are laws (usually against corruption) where citizens can initiate a private lawsuit for public malfeasance and collect a percentage of penalties/fines/settlements, right?
It's not too early to look forward to 2020, and I think a bipartisan Fair Elections agenda is a good start. Is the League of Women Voters or some other group available to spearhead this?
1) Early voting everywhere (ahem, New York), absentee/mail vote on demand without need to show cause (and encourage all your friends to vote early)
2) Email or text confirmation of your early vote's acceptance, as Oregon already does; also notification of any problem so you can fix it
3) Make the Veteran's Day holiday the national voting day. Honor the troops, they fought for your freedom, etc. etc.
4) Motor voter
5) Malicious prosecution suits against Kemp and others prosecuting people for helpign voters
6) Voting rights restored to convicts when they've paid their debt to society
I'm sure there are others....
posted by msalt at 2:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
That stretches out till around 5 but even then we never had lines more than four or five deep.
Pentagon City in Arlington, VA, just after 5 PM.
Hopefully Arlington will give Kaine a nice big margin over that racist POS, Corey Stewart. Even if Stewart wins most of the rural counties in the state, I want people to know that most Virginians, by the numbers at least, reject that Confederate wannabe.
posted by longdaysjourney at 2:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Pentagon City in Arlington, VA, just after 5 PM.
Hopefully Arlington will give Kaine a nice big margin over that racist POS, Corey Stewart. Even if Stewart wins most of the rural counties in the state, I want people to know that most Virginians, by the numbers at least, reject that Confederate wannabe.
posted by longdaysjourney at 2:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I was only voter #663 in my Milwaukee precinct just now, which has me a little worried about Scott Walker pulling it off again. But the other precincts that use that polling station had long lines, so maybe I just live around a bunch of non-voters, or people who can't vote until they get back from work tonight.
FELT SO AMAZING TO HELP TURN A RED STATE BLUE AGAIN.
posted by dis_integration at 2:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
FELT SO AMAZING TO HELP TURN A RED STATE BLUE AGAIN.
posted by dis_integration at 2:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
VA's clause allowing you to do so simply by claiming (no proof required) you'll be out of the county for most of the day for work
"That's how we've voted the last few times," he said from his living room couch. "Please don't tell anyone."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
"That's how we've voted the last few times," he said from his living room couch. "Please don't tell anyone."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I recently learned that Florida smashes proposed state amendments together if it's determined that they're about the "same" "topic." So Amendment 9, for example, will ban offshore drilling, and also vaping in the workplace, because they're both "environmental issues." Laboratories of democracy, folks
posted by theodolite at 2:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by theodolite at 2:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
@EricHolthaus: Dear God let this be a good sign
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
How long should a veteran's widow be exempt from taxes? Forever? Really?
It's a bit tinfoil-hat-ish, but I'm all the more convinced this is a long-term psyop project because this most recent one (keep the property tax exemption even after selling and buying a new house) smells a lot like the nonsense in Florida where folks get to keep their increase-limited homestead exemption levels even after moving.
As you say, it's using sympathetic faces to get people comfortable with slashing swathes of tax revenues. If these surviving spouses need benefits (and I am not convinced this is such a big and widespread issue to begin with) then the right place to provide them is directly as a result of their loss, not in whacky piecemeal exemptions from paying into the social order.
posted by phearlez at 2:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
It's a bit tinfoil-hat-ish, but I'm all the more convinced this is a long-term psyop project because this most recent one (keep the property tax exemption even after selling and buying a new house) smells a lot like the nonsense in Florida where folks get to keep their increase-limited homestead exemption levels even after moving.
As you say, it's using sympathetic faces to get people comfortable with slashing swathes of tax revenues. If these surviving spouses need benefits (and I am not convinced this is such a big and widespread issue to begin with) then the right place to provide them is directly as a result of their loss, not in whacky piecemeal exemptions from paying into the social order.
posted by phearlez at 2:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Re: Tennessee, if Taylor Swift delivers a Democratic Senate majority I will of course be thrilled, but also, it'd be the most 2018 thing that could ever possibly happen.
We are never ever ever ever voting GOP together.
posted by The Whelk at 2:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
We are never ever ever ever voting GOP together.
posted by The Whelk at 2:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
I don't think that the subject of early voting has ever even come in the PA legislature.
Absentee voting is a pain here, you have to apply for a ballot with only a few acceptable reasons for not voting in person and then if they accept your excuse, they send you back a ballot to fill in and send back in. Plus, it had to be received by the county office four days ago to count.
posted by octothorpe at 2:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Absentee voting is a pain here, you have to apply for a ballot with only a few acceptable reasons for not voting in person and then if they accept your excuse, they send you back a ballot to fill in and send back in. Plus, it had to be received by the county office four days ago to count.
posted by octothorpe at 2:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Voters at one Brooklyn polling place in Greenpoint have been waiting over four hours to vote.
Hope they're getting that free pizza from Pizza to the Polls!
That's my polling location and my wife just checked in to report that they are in fact handing out slices there right now.
posted by GalaxieFiveHundred at 2:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
Hope they're getting that free pizza from Pizza to the Polls!
That's my polling location and my wife just checked in to report that they are in fact handing out slices there right now.
posted by GalaxieFiveHundred at 2:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
> 538 liveblog posted A Cheat Sheet For The House, by ranking by Democratic win probability, so you can see (and extrapolate) as results come in!
They list my district, NY 23, as a 7.8% chance of flipping, and if it flips, Dems have like a 125 seat advantage in the House. So, not bloody likely, according to them. But there's been barely any polling, and based on the levels of energy and enthusiasm compared to the last 3 elections for the odious Tom Reed, I'm hoping it's a sleeper race.
So how many other races are like that? It's just vertigo-inducing to contemplate the possibilities.
And of course, I'm prepared to be crushed.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
They list my district, NY 23, as a 7.8% chance of flipping, and if it flips, Dems have like a 125 seat advantage in the House. So, not bloody likely, according to them. But there's been barely any polling, and based on the levels of energy and enthusiasm compared to the last 3 elections for the odious Tom Reed, I'm hoping it's a sleeper race.
So how many other races are like that? It's just vertigo-inducing to contemplate the possibilities.
And of course, I'm prepared to be crushed.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I hate myself for being unable to obsess over these stupid exit poll numbers. This is a bunch of meaningless garbage but I can't stop. Don't be like me, people.
posted by Justinian at 2:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 2:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Not gonna do the whole exit poll stuff, but this one was interesting.
First Time Voter - 16%
2016 - 10%
posted by chris24 at 2:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
First Time Voter - 16%
2016 - 10%
posted by chris24 at 2:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
How badly do you have to fuck up as President to have a 56% wrong track number with the lowest unemployment in modern history, relatively little inflation, and the first hints of wage growth showing up? Pretty goddamn badly.
posted by Justinian at 2:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 2:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
Khushbu Shah's Tweets profiling voters in Georgia: Greg Martin [old white guy], 70, is a native of Atlanta. He says the hour and half he waited to vote is the longest heâs ever waited. âI voted for Stacey Abrams because Brian Kemp is an asshole...and misogynistic piece of shit."
posted by TwoStride at 2:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [86 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 2:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [86 favorites]
Laboratories of democracy, folks
Florida also decided to put a polling place in a gated community which required ID for entry, despite being a state where ID is not required to vote. When this was pointed out, elections officials basically responded with a shrug emoji. Stellar work all around, Florida.
posted by halation at 2:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
Florida also decided to put a polling place in a gated community which required ID for entry, despite being a state where ID is not required to vote. When this was pointed out, elections officials basically responded with a shrug emoji. Stellar work all around, Florida.
posted by halation at 2:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
So... I have lots of sources for actual results, but if one wanted to follow these exit polls, where would one look? Asking for a friend.
posted by bcd at 2:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by bcd at 2:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I'm watching them on the TV. CNN and MSNBC are both doling them out.
posted by Justinian at 2:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 2:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
CNN, 45 minutes ago: Facebook removes false posts about ICE at voting locations (scroll down)
"Facebook said that earlier today it removed posts falsely claiming that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were patrolling polling locations looking for undocumented immigrants.
"Facebook says it has also removed posts telling members of both parties the wrong day to vote.
"The company did not suggest the posts had come from outside the US. Itâs unclear how widespread the activity is."
posted by Iris Gambol at 2:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
"Facebook said that earlier today it removed posts falsely claiming that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were patrolling polling locations looking for undocumented immigrants.
"Facebook says it has also removed posts telling members of both parties the wrong day to vote.
"The company did not suggest the posts had come from outside the US. Itâs unclear how widespread the activity is."
posted by Iris Gambol at 2:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
How badly do you have to fuck up as President to have a 56% wrong track number with the lowest unemployment in modern history, relatively little inflation, and the first hints of wage growth showing up? Pretty goddamn badly.
No one should be believing 'unemployment' numbers after they were officially altered in the way they are counted.
posted by Harry Caul at 2:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
No one should be believing 'unemployment' numbers after they were officially altered in the way they are counted.
posted by Harry Caul at 2:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I am performing the most potent sympathetic magic I can think of: I'm cleaning house and taking out the trash.
posted by vibrotronica at 2:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
posted by vibrotronica at 2:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
How badly do you have to fuck up as President to have a 56% wrong track number with the lowest unemployment in modern history.
I wonder how much of that is because of people working three shitty jobs? The idea that low unemployment equals high quality of life is, to put it mildly, outdated.
I am performing the most potent sympathetic magic I can think of: I'm cleaning house and taking out the trash.
I urge you to also work out something involving blood, ash, and the Republican candidate of your choosing.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
I wonder how much of that is because of people working three shitty jobs? The idea that low unemployment equals high quality of life is, to put it mildly, outdated.
I am performing the most potent sympathetic magic I can think of: I'm cleaning house and taking out the trash.
I urge you to also work out something involving blood, ash, and the Republican candidate of your choosing.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Ars Technica:
The ugly truth about voting security: States wonât fix it
Georgia, Texas cases show states whistling past voting security graveyard.
Blockchain-based elections would be a disaster for democracy
Opinion: Blockchain-based voting would destroy public trust in elections.
and no clear connection to US elections or politics at this point but a curious story:
Strange snafu misroutes domestic US Internet traffic through China Telecom
Telecom with ties to China's government misdirected traffic for two and a half years.
posted by XMLicious at 2:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
The ugly truth about voting security: States wonât fix it
Georgia, Texas cases show states whistling past voting security graveyard.
Blockchain-based elections would be a disaster for democracy
Opinion: Blockchain-based voting would destroy public trust in elections.
and no clear connection to US elections or politics at this point but a curious story:
Strange snafu misroutes domestic US Internet traffic through China Telecom
Telecom with ties to China's government misdirected traffic for two and a half years.
posted by XMLicious at 2:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Some of the ones in houses in the very car-centered northeast are there because otherwise some people would have to travel nearly a mile to get to theirs.
Having just driven over ten miles one way to get to my polling place, this is funny to me. But hey, that's rural Texas for you. And this is one of the CLOSER polling places. To vote early I would have had to drive about 30 miles to a town out of my way.
posted by threeturtles at 2:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Having just driven over ten miles one way to get to my polling place, this is funny to me. But hey, that's rural Texas for you. And this is one of the CLOSER polling places. To vote early I would have had to drive about 30 miles to a town out of my way.
posted by threeturtles at 2:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I urge you to also work out something involving blood, ash, and the Republican candidate of your choosing.
Hmm, I'm up for it! Witches of MetaFilter, let's talk about hex ;]
posted by fiercecupcake at 3:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Hmm, I'm up for it! Witches of MetaFilter, let's talk about hex ;]
posted by fiercecupcake at 3:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
I am a Beto voter. I have a Beto sign in my yard, and both my neighbors do, too. I am really happy that he is opposing Cruz, who is Mr. Oily to me.
I have very little confidence that Beto will beat Ted. If it happens I will be grinning until it hurts, tomorrow. However, I am really glad to have him do his thing, and am happy that so many of us are with him. I hope that Ted will feel the sting of a close race, and know that a whole lot of people in Texas do not like him at all.
posted by Midnight Skulker at 3:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I have very little confidence that Beto will beat Ted. If it happens I will be grinning until it hurts, tomorrow. However, I am really glad to have him do his thing, and am happy that so many of us are with him. I hope that Ted will feel the sting of a close race, and know that a whole lot of people in Texas do not like him at all.
posted by Midnight Skulker at 3:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
In Memphis, Marsha Blackburn (R-Font Of Evil) went to city breakfast landmark Gibson's Donuts this morning for a last minute photo op with Trump supporter and civic disappointment Jerry "The King" Lawler. Gibson's was immediately subjected to a social media pummeling, apologized, and promised to stay out of politics forever.
posted by vibrotronica at 3:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by vibrotronica at 3:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
let's talk about hex
i *still* have my 2017 inauguration binding spell receptacle in my freezer, because i was unwilling to inflict its presence on either the earth or the waters
posted by halation at 3:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
i *still* have my 2017 inauguration binding spell receptacle in my freezer, because i was unwilling to inflict its presence on either the earth or the waters
posted by halation at 3:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Interesting thread - number of women running for *state* legislatures way up, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 3:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Re. 2018 vs 2016: we have a winner.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 3:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 3:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Final 538 odds:
D Senate + D House: 18%posted by Chrysostom at 3:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
D Senate + R House: less than 1%
R Senate + D House: 68%
R Senate + R House: 14%
Any suggestions for livestreams to watch (or listen to) that don't feature coverage of the candidate's rallies? I tuned into ABC's stream on YouTube, but it was Ted Cruz yelling "GOD BLESS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP", so I was like you know what fuck this.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 3:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by escape from the potato planet at 3:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Of the 16% first time voters?
61% D, 36% R.
posted by chris24 at 3:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
61% D, 36% R.
posted by chris24 at 3:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
Well, here it goes. I just want to wish all you MeFites good luck. We're all counting on you.< /airplane>
posted by tarshish bound at 3:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by tarshish bound at 3:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
so uh yeah this seems like it might be a design flaw: USB stick and scanner controls left unsecured and voter-accessible on at least one Brooklyn machine. (I mean, I get why it's unlocked, people have been doing restarts and maintenance all day, but jesus)
Not a design flaw. But there is never a reason it should be running and unlocked.
It's an operator error. And one that should trigger a hand count audit.
posted by mikelieman at 3:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Nine polling locations in Texas are staying open for an extra hour, due to early-morning opening delays and technical problems.
In other Beto news, please enjoy this sweet picture of Beto meeting one of his supporters, Pamela Aguirre, at the polls. MSNBC correspondent Garrett Haake spoke with her and said it was his favourite interview of the entire campaign.
posted by halation at 3:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
In other Beto news, please enjoy this sweet picture of Beto meeting one of his supporters, Pamela Aguirre, at the polls. MSNBC correspondent Garrett Haake spoke with her and said it was his favourite interview of the entire campaign.
posted by halation at 3:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Just for the record, for anyone tuning in to these elections just now:
As of right now, the 538.com website projections, based on an average of polls that they consider valid, shows the net seat change in the House as +36 seats for the Dems. Dems currently hold 193 seats, so this would bring the Dem total to 229. Only 218 are needed to control the House.
538.com currently projects the Republicans to pick up +1 seat in the Senate, bringing their total to 52. The Dems of course would need 51 (including Independents) to take control, since VP Pence could break a 50-50 tie.
You may now return to your regularly scheduled handwringing and booze-up.
posted by darkstar at 3:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
As of right now, the 538.com website projections, based on an average of polls that they consider valid, shows the net seat change in the House as +36 seats for the Dems. Dems currently hold 193 seats, so this would bring the Dem total to 229. Only 218 are needed to control the House.
538.com currently projects the Republicans to pick up +1 seat in the Senate, bringing their total to 52. The Dems of course would need 51 (including Independents) to take control, since VP Pence could break a 50-50 tie.
You may now return to your regularly scheduled handwringing and booze-up.
posted by darkstar at 3:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Well KY-6 will likely be the first "Tossup" seat to be called. Trying not to watch this and failing.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by aspersioncast at 3:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
From the Marsha Blackburn doughnutgate article: In mid-September, Blackburn and the University of Memphis both took fire when a video of Blackburn appearing with U of M cheerleaders chanting "Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" made the rounds on the internet before being taken down by her campaign.
U of M quickly issued a statement refuting any notion that the university was endorsing Marsha.
Wow. If I can't trust the U of M cheerleaders, then I must have been forcibly subjected to a timeline in which Donald Fucking Trump somehow got elected by a lot of mouth-breathing Fox News racists from Facebook.
Oh. Right. Well. Let's fix that, then.
posted by petebest at 3:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
U of M quickly issued a statement refuting any notion that the university was endorsing Marsha.
Wow. If I can't trust the U of M cheerleaders, then I must have been forcibly subjected to a timeline in which Donald Fucking Trump somehow got elected by a lot of mouth-breathing Fox News racists from Facebook.
Oh. Right. Well. Let's fix that, then.
posted by petebest at 3:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
This is a very interesting chart in the 538 livestream that shows how many seats gain at each confidence level. Like if Dems win all seats where 538 has them 75% likely to win, they pick up 14 seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 3:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
No one should be believing 'unemployment' numbers after they were officially altered in the way they are counted.
Does the US not use the ILO standard U-3?
posted by atrazine at 3:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Does the US not use the ILO standard U-3?
posted by atrazine at 3:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
aspersioncast: "Well KY-6 will likely be the first "Tossup" seat to be called. Trying not to watch this and failing."
Keep in mind KY-06 falls under "nice to have, but not necessary" for Dems. Kind of doesn't fit the template of districts they are expected to do well in.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Keep in mind KY-06 falls under "nice to have, but not necessary" for Dems. Kind of doesn't fit the template of districts they are expected to do well in.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
When they write the books about the failure of the American experiment Mitch McConnell will feature prominently.
posted by East14thTaco at 3:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by East14thTaco at 3:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Keep in mind KY-06 falls under "nice to have, but not necessary" for Dems.
True, but it could be one signal of a good night for Democrats.
posted by booksherpa at 3:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
True, but it could be one signal of a good night for Democrats.
posted by booksherpa at 3:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Chrysotom's link didn't quite work for me because it's going to the middle of a page that has so much content, continues to load, just generally a mess. So if you want the tool I think we're talking about, do an in-page search for "Cheat Sheet For The House" on the FiveThirtyEight live update page.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Polls in Monroe County, Indiana (home to Bloomington and Indiana University, and one of only four counties in Indiana to go for Clinton in 2016) to remain open an extra hour in response to ballot shortages earlier in the day, although ballots cast during that hour will be provisional until a judge can rule on them.
Early voting was way up over previous midterms, how could election officials not be prepared for the same on election day???
Meanwhile, hours were not extended in Johnson County, Indiana (mostly Indianapolis suburbs, and in which Trump had a 42%(!) margin over Clinton in 2016), despite issues with voter check-in which had some people waiting nearly 3 hours to vote.
No one should have to wait more than 30 minutes to vote. That includes time for check-in and any pre-voting necessaries. 30 minutes from the time a voter gets in line until they get to a voting machine.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 3:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Early voting was way up over previous midterms, how could election officials not be prepared for the same on election day???
Meanwhile, hours were not extended in Johnson County, Indiana (mostly Indianapolis suburbs, and in which Trump had a 42%(!) margin over Clinton in 2016), despite issues with voter check-in which had some people waiting nearly 3 hours to vote.
No one should have to wait more than 30 minutes to vote. That includes time for check-in and any pre-voting necessaries. 30 minutes from the time a voter gets in line until they get to a voting machine.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 3:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Might be a delay in calling the Texas Senate race, among others:
I am fine with that. Give people that extra hour chance to vote. Harris County has, I hear, been having some issues with voter suppression; I'm all in favor of opening up access even if it means I stay up a little bit later tonight.
posted by sciatrix at 3:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I am fine with that. Give people that extra hour chance to vote. Harris County has, I hear, been having some issues with voter suppression; I'm all in favor of opening up access even if it means I stay up a little bit later tonight.
posted by sciatrix at 3:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Sorry about that!
Current turnout projections may have us exceeding 48.7%, a record that has stood since 1914.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Current turnout projections may have us exceeding 48.7%, a record that has stood since 1914.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Your KY-6 anecdotal update: my immediate family went 3-2 for McGrath. I thought my single issue NRA dad might forget to put his absentee ballot in the mail (they're on vacation all week) but mom said "unfortunately he remembered, I wasn't going to remind him".
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
InTheYear2017, this link to the PDF version of the whole spreadsheet might help.
posted by booksherpa at 3:33 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by booksherpa at 3:33 PM on November 6, 2018
In Missouri, suburban Kansas City, and got home from voting about an hour ago. This is a tiny, 850-person, middle-class lake community. Maybe six people voting at 4PM, but that's pretty much exactly how many people were there midday 2016.
We have an anti(partisan)gerrymandering amendment on the ballot; I would be very happy were it to pass. If I were an uninformed, naive voter, from the way it's worded I'd think "what's not to like?" So I'm a bit hopeful, given what this electorate probably will be like.
We've got three seperate medical marijuana ballot issues, which I fear will split the votes and all will fail.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
We have an anti(partisan)gerrymandering amendment on the ballot; I would be very happy were it to pass. If I were an uninformed, naive voter, from the way it's worded I'd think "what's not to like?" So I'm a bit hopeful, given what this electorate probably will be like.
We've got three seperate medical marijuana ballot issues, which I fear will split the votes and all will fail.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
When they write the books about the failure of the American experiment Mitch McConnell will feature prominently.
In an unflattering comparison to President Hindenburg, Christopher R. Browning had this to say about Mitch Fucking McConnell:
posted by chappell, ambrose at 3:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
In an unflattering comparison to President Hindenburg, Christopher R. Browning had this to say about Mitch Fucking McConnell:
If the US has someone whom historians will look back on as the gravedigger of American democracy, it is Mitch McConnell. He stoked the hyperpolarization of American politics to make the Obama presidency as dysfunctional and paralyzed as he possibly could. As with parliamentary gridlock in Weimar, congressional gridlock in the US has diminished respect for democratic norms, allowing McConnell to trample them even more.Yup, "Gravedigger of American Democracy" works for me.
posted by chappell, ambrose at 3:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
Pretty sure unemployment is only counted when you are actively looking for work and canât find it. As opposed to youâve given up and/or are chronically underemployed.
U3 (official unemployment rate as defined by the ILO) doesn't include "discouraged workers".
U4 is U3 + discouraged workers - don't think they would find a job if they looked
U5 is U4 + marginally connected workers - people who would like to work
U6 is U5 + p/t workers who want to be f/t
When a government says "unemployment" they mean U3 but other rates are also reported.
posted by atrazine at 3:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
U3 (official unemployment rate as defined by the ILO) doesn't include "discouraged workers".
U4 is U3 + discouraged workers - don't think they would find a job if they looked
U5 is U4 + marginally connected workers - people who would like to work
U6 is U5 + p/t workers who want to be f/t
When a government says "unemployment" they mean U3 but other rates are also reported.
posted by atrazine at 3:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
First result! Hal Rogers [R] holds KY-05 (Trump 80-18).
posted by Chrysostom at 3:55 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 3:55 PM on November 6, 2018
Is it me or is Kentucky counting slower than molasses? What are they doing, transferring the ballot counts to the precinct HQs by horse and buggy?
posted by Justinian at 3:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 3:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Please don't get excited yet but the numbers for KY-6 look...good. And this is an outside target district.
Is it me or is Kentucky counting slower than molasses? What are they doing, transferring the ballot counts to the precinct HQs by horse and buggy?
It's you, KY is pretty quick historically. If this isn't called by 830 or 9 there's going to be shenanigans involved.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
A county within #KY06 is 100% reporting (it's the smallest, but we have to start somewhere): Rep. Barr won Robertson County by 49% in 2016, on his way to a 22% district victory. Today, he won it by 28%.Fayette is Lexington and McGrath needs a big margin there, but Robertson Co. is deep Trump country.
39% of Fayette in, McGrath over Barr 60-38. #ky06
Is it me or is Kentucky counting slower than molasses? What are they doing, transferring the ballot counts to the precinct HQs by horse and buggy?
It's you, KY is pretty quick historically. If this isn't called by 830 or 9 there's going to be shenanigans involved.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Brian Kemp seems to have had a tough time voting today.
posted by just_ducky at 3:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by just_ducky at 3:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
And here we go...
posted by Windopaene at 4:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 4:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
An observation from SF- the poll workers at my voting stations were a) much younger than past years and b) much better informed than past years, a huge step up from previous experiences. I accidentally screwed up a meaningless ranked-choice thing, and the poll worker who was maybe a few years younger than me very calmly explained what had happened and that it wouldn't invalidate anything. He was very calm, and very well informed. It was a nice change from past years when poll workers looked as if they'd rather be getting a root canal than helping people vote.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Yes, they covered ranked-choice voting well in our training, even though it was unlikely any of us would be in an area that had it. I was impressed.
posted by greermahoney at 4:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by greermahoney at 4:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Please don't get excited yet but the numbers for KY-6 look...good.
I'm not sure I'd call the results so far "good", more "this looks really close". Which is what we expected, right? An unexpected result would be somebody winning by 5+?
posted by Justinian at 4:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm not sure I'd call the results so far "good", more "this looks really close". Which is what we expected, right? An unexpected result would be somebody winning by 5+?
posted by Justinian at 4:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I can't find it right now, but there was a reddit post this morning where the person was trying to vote for the democratic candidate and the box next to that person's name would not accept the "X"; the screen fluttered and the "X" jumped into the box next to the Republican's name. He was showing the problem via a video from his phone. Yes, he spoke to officials.
posted by KleenexMakesaVeryGoodHat at 4:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by KleenexMakesaVeryGoodHat at 4:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
It's a known problem with shitty old touch screen voting machines, it can normally be corrected.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I mean, good is relative. If she squeaks out a R+9 win early in the night I feel a whole lot better about all the much easier races to come later on.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Tim Kaine, Bernie Sanders re-elected.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Yeah, "good" in terms of nationwide outlook. The same way Dave Brat +3 would be good news for Dems.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:09 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:09 PM on November 6, 2018
The short explanation is that the screen and your finger disagree on where exactly you are touching it. If the names were reversed and you tried to vote Republication the X would appear to jump to the Democratic Party candidate.
posted by sideshow at 4:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by sideshow at 4:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Voter Suppression in North Dakota Could Be Backfiring on Republicans
On Tuesday, there were isolated reports of tribal IDs not being accepted in one North Dakota county, home to the Standing Rock Reservation. But there are broader indications that the ID law may have motivated Native Americans to turn out in higher numbers, with the tribes printing thousands of new valid IDs in the run-up to the election.posted by triggerfinger at 4:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [74 favorites]
âVoter turnout is very high,â says Matt Campbell, a voting rights lawyer with the Native American Rights Fund, who was at the Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation in northern North Dakota on Tuesday. âThe tribe has been working around the clock to get people new IDs.â The Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians issued 2,000 IDs in the last week, Campbell told me. âHaving seen the disenfranchising effects of the ID law firsthand, it has galvanized the community to come together and make their voices heard.â
116 of 286 precincts reporting, McGrath has 61%
posted by eclectist at 4:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by eclectist at 4:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
The tea leaf readers right now seem to feel okay about Florida but concerned about Indiana.
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on November 6, 2018
With over half of St Pete/Tampa in, Gillum is +6. Trump was +2.
With half of Pasco Co in, Desantis is +12. Trump was +22.
posted by chris24 at 4:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
With half of Pasco Co in, Desantis is +12. Trump was +22.
posted by chris24 at 4:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
eclectist, what site has those results? The NYT is still only showing 58 precincts reported. I need faster results!
posted by Justinian at 4:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 4:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Interesting poll worker anecdote - Here in Montgomery County, OH, the BOE tries to field two Democrats and two Republicans at each precinct to ensure fairness. Well, just days before the election officials said they still need more than 100 Republican poll workers:
What prompted the shortage of Republican-affiliated election officials isnât clear, said Jan Kelly, the Montgomery County Board of Elections director who first made the plea Wednesday.posted by zakur at 4:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
âItâs an anomaly this year that we need this many,â Kelly said. âA lot of people just canceled. Longtime people that worked the polls just didnât return and say, âHey, Iâll work again.â They didnât show up for class. They didnât return our phone calls.â
116 of 286 precincts reporting, McGrath has 61%
Also I believe there are 627 precincts in KY-06 soooooo....
posted by Justinian at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Also I believe there are 627 precincts in KY-06 soooooo....
posted by Justinian at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
About 70 young Native Americans marched to a polling place on a reservation near Belcourt chanting "North Dakota â you can't do that,"
posted by bluesky43 at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
The tea leaf readers right now seem to feel okay about Florida but concerned about Indiana.
unsourced vague references to tea leaves being read elsewhere are not helpful for many of us.
posted by lazaruslong at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
unsourced vague references to tea leaves being read elsewhere are not helpful for many of us.
posted by lazaruslong at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
WKYT, Lexington News - but their site's sidebar has Barr up 51 - 47%. I really should let the pros do this, and stick to drinking wine and worrying.
posted by eclectist at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by eclectist at 4:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
âIn Rowan County, Kentucky, Kim Davis (R) â who made headlines for refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses in 2015 â is currently trailing in her re-election race.â (via 538)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
posted by Barack Spinoza at 4:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
Can I ask a favor? If youâre going to be so wonderful as to give us current status or results of specific races, could you mark the D or R next to each name? I wish I remembered who everyone is, but my memory ainât what it used to be. Thank you!!!
posted by greermahoney at 4:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [65 favorites]
posted by greermahoney at 4:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [65 favorites]
Can I ask a favor? If youâre going to be so wonderful as to give us current status or results of specific races, could you mark the D or R next to each name?
Please also cite - and if possible link to - your source.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Please also cite - and if possible link to - your source.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Can you add (D) and (R) for people who arenât familiar with all the races?
posted by _Mona_ at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by _Mona_ at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Ah, it was for Fayette alone, which is still 40% of the KY06 vote, but not all of it. I'm backing away from this machine before I hurt myself.
posted by eclectist at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by eclectist at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Btw, the Politico results bot tweets out called races. Sometimes it's a few minutes behind, but a good place to see if you missed something.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Step aside, TSwift: Queen Bey revealed that she's still registered in Texas and voted for Beto.
posted by TwoStride at 4:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 4:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
"Which is what we expected, right?"
As far as I'm concerned, getting what we were expecting is very good news.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
As far as I'm concerned, getting what we were expecting is very good news.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Georgia: BREAKING: 3 Gwinnett precincts to stay open after issues, by Tyler Estep & Amanda C. Coyne, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Annistown Elementary School precinct will remain open until 9:25 p.m.posted by ZeusHumms at 4:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Anderson-Livsey Elementary will remain open until 7:30 p.m. Harbins Elementary will remain open until 7:14 p.m.
Polls generally close at 7 p.m.
The extended hours were ordered by Melodie Snell Conner, the chief judge of Gwinnett County Superior Court.
For cites, here is Nate Cohn's twitter where he conveniently mentions both the optimistic results in FL and the pessimistic results in Indiana in consecutive tweets. Basically Donnelly is getting romped in the rural parts of Indiana.
But I believe the outstanding question is whether the results end up looking more like his election in 2012 or the presidential year in 2016. RCP seems to have based their benchmarks off 2012 but Decision Desk HQ off 2016. I don't have access to the premium Decision Desk though to check.
I'd probably come down on the 2016 side and want to see the margins he runs up in Indy/Gary.
posted by Justinian at 4:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
But I believe the outstanding question is whether the results end up looking more like his election in 2012 or the presidential year in 2016. RCP seems to have based their benchmarks off 2012 but Decision Desk HQ off 2016. I don't have access to the premium Decision Desk though to check.
I'd probably come down on the 2016 side and want to see the margins he runs up in Indy/Gary.
posted by Justinian at 4:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I don't think I have the nerves for this. I'll go somewhere where there's no electronics.
Call me when we won.
posted by growabrain at 4:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Call me when we won.
posted by growabrain at 4:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Looks like Kim Davis's goose is cooked:
On the Kim Davis race in Rowan County, with 17 of 19 precincts reporting: Davis (R): 3118 Caudill (D): 3711
If you have forgotten who Kim Davis is.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [62 favorites]
On the Kim Davis race in Rowan County, with 17 of 19 precincts reporting: Davis (R): 3118 Caudill (D): 3711
If you have forgotten who Kim Davis is.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [62 favorites]
No matter the results, the next two years are going to be worse than the last two. If the Democrats take the House (and/or the Senate), the animosity between the two parties is going to be monumental; if the Republicans keep total control of Congress, that will encourage Trump and the GOP to go even further. So don't expect the political climate to improve.
It appears the 18-29 demographic is voting in greater numbers. If they succeed in tipping races toward progressive candidates that bodes well for future elections. If they fail to flip the House or propel favourite candidates such as Beto to victory, we may well see a drop in their numbers in 2020.
In other words, we're still in the middle of a long political cycle. Anyone expecting this to resolve anything is going to be disappointed.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
It appears the 18-29 demographic is voting in greater numbers. If they succeed in tipping races toward progressive candidates that bodes well for future elections. If they fail to flip the House or propel favourite candidates such as Beto to victory, we may well see a drop in their numbers in 2020.
In other words, we're still in the middle of a long political cycle. Anyone expecting this to resolve anything is going to be disappointed.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
In other words, we're still in the middle of a long political cycle. Anyone expecting this to resolve anything is going to be disappointed.
we are aware that things are bad
posted by murphy slaw at 4:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [110 favorites]
we are aware that things are bad
posted by murphy slaw at 4:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [110 favorites]
For informed Florida info, follow Steve Schale and Matthew Isbell.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Of course this ain't going to improve the political climate. Nothing about that is going to improve before the government has been washed clear of McConnell, his influence, and the Nazis courted by his party--and as there is no evidence that the Republican Party intends to do jack shit about that rot, it's up to the rest of us to rip it out root and branch.
But this will tell us more about how hard we need to fight to hold the goddamn line, and that's important. And absolute worst case, we are making the Republican Party bleed money and stress to hold their ill-gotten gains, and that is not nothing.
posted by sciatrix at 4:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
But this will tell us more about how hard we need to fight to hold the goddamn line, and that's important. And absolute worst case, we are making the Republican Party bleed money and stress to hold their ill-gotten gains, and that is not nothing.
posted by sciatrix at 4:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
A plea from the cheap seats: can we please, please avoid catastrophizing or preemptive circular-firing-squad activity in this thread? This isn't aimed at anyone in particular: it's me trying to fend off that sort of negativity, which tends to show up a lot in fast-moving threads like this.
posted by scrump at 4:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
posted by scrump at 4:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.
posted by ZeusHumms at 4:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by ZeusHumms at 4:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I'd probably come down on the 2016 side and want to see the margins he runs up in Indy/Gary.
Lots of people seem to think this is where things are going. The urban/rural divide is amping way up, even more than 2016. So it's possible Donnelly can significantly underperform in the rural districts even compared to his own previous races but still pull it out. Everyone send your energy to Gary and Indianapolis.
posted by Justinian at 4:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Lots of people seem to think this is where things are going. The urban/rural divide is amping way up, even more than 2016. So it's possible Donnelly can significantly underperform in the rural districts even compared to his own previous races but still pull it out. Everyone send your energy to Gary and Indianapolis.
posted by Justinian at 4:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Marathon, not sprint.
This feels rushed because the media pushes the idea that four hours after EST 6pm on the first Tuesday in November is THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE YEAR, but it's not. It's part of an ongoing, painful process in which we attempt to take back our country from the thugs who've corrupted it.
A massive blue wave today just means "a few steps in the direction we need." A blue ripple just means more of what we've been doing for the last two years.
Hug your children and hone your skills.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [31 favorites]
This feels rushed because the media pushes the idea that four hours after EST 6pm on the first Tuesday in November is THE BIGGEST NEWS OF THE YEAR, but it's not. It's part of an ongoing, painful process in which we attempt to take back our country from the thugs who've corrupted it.
A massive blue wave today just means "a few steps in the direction we need." A blue ripple just means more of what we've been doing for the last two years.
Hug your children and hone your skills.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [31 favorites]
My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.
My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it will be through having more votes than Cruz.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [87 favorites]
My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it will be through having more votes than Cruz.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [87 favorites]
The New York Times What Time Do the Polls Close? page added a time zone picker.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.
What does that even mean? Beto hires someone to poison Cruzâs soup? He goes back in time and kills Cruzâs parents?
posted by greermahoney at 4:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
What does that even mean? Beto hires someone to poison Cruzâs soup? He goes back in time and kills Cruzâs parents?
posted by greermahoney at 4:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
For cites, here is Nate Cohn's twitter where he conveniently mentions both the optimistic results in FL and the pessimistic results in Indiana in consecutive tweets. Basically Donnelly is getting romped in the rural parts of Indiana.
Can people, when they're talking about people, add party affiliation after the name? I'm an Old and having a hell of a time remembering who's (D) and who's (R), and including party affiliation allows me to more immediately determine my level of glee or despair.
</hamburger>
posted by scrump at 4:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Can people, when they're talking about people, add party affiliation after the name? I'm an Old and having a hell of a time remembering who's (D) and who's (R), and including party affiliation allows me to more immediately determine my level of glee or despair.
</hamburger>
posted by scrump at 4:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Overperforming in districts that were supposed to be GOP-friendly, I'd think. As opposed to running up the score in cities.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
He goes back in time and kills Cruzâs parents?
Gotta admit it's a novel way to do the "time travel to save JFK" story!
posted by thefoxgod at 4:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
Gotta admit it's a novel way to do the "time travel to save JFK" story!
posted by thefoxgod at 4:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
Like the cockroaches inhabiting the skin suit suddenly decide they aren't paid enough and suddenly slither away, leaving behind a ghastly pile of Cruz.
posted by juice boo at 4:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by juice boo at 4:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
I don't think I have the nerves for this. I'll go somewhere where there's no electronics.
Call me when we won.
How?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
Call me when we won.
How?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
My expectation is, if Beto O'Rourke wins, it'll be in a way that no one saw coming.
Someone will inadvertently splash Ted Cruz with a bucketful of insecticide, and the ten thousand cockroaches inhabiting his skin suit will fizzle into a pile, Wicked Witch of the West style, crying out in unison, "What a world! What a world!"
posted by Sublimity at 4:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Someone will inadvertently splash Ted Cruz with a bucketful of insecticide, and the ten thousand cockroaches inhabiting his skin suit will fizzle into a pile, Wicked Witch of the West style, crying out in unison, "What a world! What a world!"
posted by Sublimity at 4:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
VA-10: Comstock [R-i] loses Loudon County by 17 points. She basically tied it in 2016. Ominous sign for Comstock.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Kim Davis update (Rowan County clerk who refused to issue same-sex marriage licenses):
with 18 of 19 precincts reporting:posted by zachlipton at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Davis (R): 3234
Caudill (D): 3841
Some nudges in the 538 real time forecast. Dems now have a 14 in 15 chance of winning the house, with a 42 net seat change. They're also showing no net seat change in the Senate, nudged up from a one seat gain for Republicans.
posted by chrchr at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by chrchr at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
NBC just called VA-10. Comstock (R) defeated. Wexton (D) wins. First flip. 22 to go.
posted by chris24 at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [69 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 4:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [69 favorites]
Stephanie Murphy [D] holds FL-07, which was Likely D.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I swear, I am going to have to compile all the metaphors that MetaFilterians have coined for Ted Cruz. From âMr. Oilyâ to âTen thousand beetles in a human suitâ to âA skin mask stretched over a bowl of haunted mayonnaiseâ â each new epithet fills me with glee.
posted by darkstar at 4:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
posted by darkstar at 4:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
Comstock going down that fast has got to be a good sign for the House, right?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:42 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:42 PM on November 6, 2018
a walking lamprey in a bad halloween mask
posted by sciatrix at 4:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by sciatrix at 4:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Comstock going down that fast has got to be a good sign for the House, right?
Yeah. The results so far are inching the 538 tracker upwards for the House (now around 95%!!) but still hanging around 16% in the Senate. The House/Senate split looks increasingly likely.
Frankly, if you had offered me a devil's bargain yesterday where Ds pick up 35 House seats but there is a net of 0 in the Senate I'd have taken it without a thought. The crucial thing is to get control of one lever of power somewhere in the government. Yes, it would be better to hold the Senate than the House but holding the House is infinitely better than holding neither.
posted by Justinian at 4:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Yeah. The results so far are inching the 538 tracker upwards for the House (now around 95%!!) but still hanging around 16% in the Senate. The House/Senate split looks increasingly likely.
Frankly, if you had offered me a devil's bargain yesterday where Ds pick up 35 House seats but there is a net of 0 in the Senate I'd have taken it without a thought. The crucial thing is to get control of one lever of power somewhere in the government. Yes, it would be better to hold the Senate than the House but holding the House is infinitely better than holding neither.
posted by Justinian at 4:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
10 Pounds of horse manure in a 5 pound bag shaped like a blobfish
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 4:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
> Some nudges in the 538 real time forecast.
Huh... who has a theory why? Seems to me that so far, only high-likelihood things have happened...
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 4:46 PM on November 6, 2018
Huh... who has a theory why? Seems to me that so far, only high-likelihood things have happened...
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 4:46 PM on November 6, 2018
The crucial thing is to get control of one lever of power somewhere in the government. Yes, it would be better to hold the Senate than the House but holding the House is infinitely better than holding neither.
Yes - and we need the downballot races and governorships, too. Even such a tiny win as Kim Davis being defeated is a good step (and if it means that another LGBT couple can get married in that district, yay!).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Yes - and we need the downballot races and governorships, too. Even such a tiny win as Kim Davis being defeated is a good step (and if it means that another LGBT couple can get married in that district, yay!).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Huh... who has a theory why? Seems to me that so far, only high-likelihood things have happened...
Because they model a high probability of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. So if the early results conform to what we expect it increases the model's certainty that the later results will also conform.
For example they had McGrath losing by like a point in their model. If she instead wins by a point that is only a 2 point difference but it leads their model to more certainty in a House majority for Democrats because they are winning close toss-ups.
posted by Justinian at 4:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Because they model a high probability of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. So if the early results conform to what we expect it increases the model's certainty that the later results will also conform.
For example they had McGrath losing by like a point in their model. If she instead wins by a point that is only a 2 point difference but it leads their model to more certainty in a House majority for Democrats because they are winning close toss-ups.
posted by Justinian at 4:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
God, I'm honestly sitting here gibbering in frail yearning hope at not the federal House going blue, but at the idea of having an infusion of blue into my state legislature. Imagine the downballot effect on the federal judgeships, or the Lege, or or or....
posted by sciatrix at 4:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by sciatrix at 4:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
538 liveblog:
Geoffrey, the vote in Indianaâs Senate race looks really bad for Donnelly. Is it?posted by zachlipton at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I increasingly think it isnât good for him.
It seems like Donnelly will need a lot of help from Indianapolis (Marion County) and Gary (Lake County) to win. That is, outrun his 34- and 41-point margins there, respectively, in 2012.
Comstock going down that fast has got to be a good sign for the House, right?
Her district used to be a good bellwether for the nation, but Trump is especially unpopular with so many people who make their living off the government in NoVa that I don't think it's as indicative as its been in the past.
posted by peeedro at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018
Her district used to be a good bellwether for the nation, but Trump is especially unpopular with so many people who make their living off the government in NoVa that I don't think it's as indicative as its been in the past.
posted by peeedro at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018
Things are looking not bad in the Florida Governor and Senate races.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018
I know I'm the downballot guy, but I am rather optimistic about a lot of those races.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
VA-07: Very tight, which is probably a good sign for Dems. [Brat [R-i] vs Spanberger [D] ]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Dispatch from Minnesota polls: 12.5 hours in and we have just had the 800th in-person voter. 169 absentee ballots were cast by 5pm yesterday (more probably came in during business hours today). It has been so busy that people have been filling out ballots on the floor and walls at times. Everyone is generally in a good mood. The sleet turned to snow for a while. I am wired as shit because we election judges have a potluck every year and my colleagues are awesome cooks and bakers of sugary treats. I have no idea whats going on in the outside election world, look forward to catching up with the thread later.
posted by Elly Vortex at 4:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
posted by Elly Vortex at 4:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
VA-07: Very tight, which is probably a good sign for Dems. [Brat [R-i] vs Spanberger [D] ]
Yeah, I used Brat+3 as the example of a Pyrrhic victory for Republicans and right now it looks closer than that.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yeah, I used Brat+3 as the example of a Pyrrhic victory for Republicans and right now it looks closer than that.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 4:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Well the NY Times website appears to be broken, and has been for the past few minutes for me. Loads - but only partially, and does the thing sites do when they are getting overloaded.
For multiple reasons, I am really OK with this.
posted by juice boo at 4:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
For multiple reasons, I am really OK with this.
posted by juice boo at 4:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Good signs for NC Supreme Court and legislative power grab initiatives.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
I'm watching the Buzzfeed video feed with their commentators (knowledgable, but not very polished -- it may or may not be to your taste. Less of the Hot Takes, more of the actual events), they have a British man and an American woman (both appear millennial), and the man said, "So the first scalp of the night--" and the woman interrupted and said, "Be careful! Nobody likes it when you say that!" and he said "whoops, sorry -- the first LOSS of the night" and everyone moved on. And I was like YAS BUZZFEED, non-American uses a not-okay idiom, American immediately steps in with a friendly correction, he happily and immediately corrects himself and appears grateful for the correction. It was a tiny moment in passing, and awkwardly phrased, but it was so wonderful to see the woman commentator IMMEDIATELY and totally unselfconsciously step in while live on air, and the man to immediately walk it back without getting angry or defensive. MILLENNIALS ARE GIVING MY HOARY GEN X HEART HOPE.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [83 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 4:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [83 favorites]
The Kim Davis result is definitely an unexpected treat.
Can someone give me a short prĂŠcis on why Donelly is struggling with being re-elected? Is it just because IN is so Red normally, and he was originally elected in a bit of a fluke year, maybe with some of Obamaâs coattails in 2008?
posted by darkstar at 4:54 PM on November 6, 2018
Can someone give me a short prĂŠcis on why Donelly is struggling with being re-elected? Is it just because IN is so Red normally, and he was originally elected in a bit of a fluke year, maybe with some of Obamaâs coattails in 2008?
posted by darkstar at 4:54 PM on November 6, 2018
@Nate_Cohn: I don't see anything that indicates a systematic forecasting error. From here, the GOP just needs a ton of luck. Scratch out 1, 2, 3 point wins, over and over.
Thanks Nate. That's been my tossup district nightmare for at least a week, and you've just vocalized it. Good going.
But yeah, that's why the prediction models are tightening up. Things, overall, appear to be generally in line with predictions. And the predictions still left room for the possibility of Republican control of the House, but it's looking less likely based on these early results that all the models are wildly wrong.
posted by zachlipton at 4:54 PM on November 6, 2018
Thanks Nate. That's been my tossup district nightmare for at least a week, and you've just vocalized it. Good going.
But yeah, that's why the prediction models are tightening up. Things, overall, appear to be generally in line with predictions. And the predictions still left room for the possibility of Republican control of the House, but it's looking less likely based on these early results that all the models are wildly wrong.
posted by zachlipton at 4:54 PM on November 6, 2018
I am wired as shit because we election judges have a potluck every year and my colleagues are awesome cooks and bakers of sugary treats.
How do we roll this out everywhere?
asking for a friend
the friend is me
posted by scrump at 4:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
How do we roll this out everywhere?
asking for a friend
the friend is me
posted by scrump at 4:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
darkstar: "Can someone give me a short prĂŠcis on why Donelly is struggling with being re-elected? Is it just because IN is so Red normally, and he was originally elected in a bit of a fluke year, maybe with some of Obamaâs coattails in 2008?"
Yes. He was only elected because GOPer Mourdock self-immolated.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Yes. He was only elected because GOPer Mourdock self-immolated.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
> why [is] Donelly is struggling with being re-elected?
Adding to what Chrysostom said, here's 538: An interesting little tidbit from the preliminary exit polls out of Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for his seat: 53 percent said that Donnellyâs vote against Brett Kavanaughâs confirmation was important in deciding their midterm vote.
posted by RedOrGreen at 4:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Adding to what Chrysostom said, here's 538: An interesting little tidbit from the preliminary exit polls out of Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for his seat: 53 percent said that Donnellyâs vote against Brett Kavanaughâs confirmation was important in deciding their midterm vote.
posted by RedOrGreen at 4:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
OMG the Flawn voting center at work just came on the local news and there's lines OUT THE GODDAMN DOOR look at all the baby undergrads voting in Texas I AM SO PROUD OF ALL OF THEM
posted by sciatrix at 4:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
posted by sciatrix at 4:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
Waltz [R] wins in FL-06, about 57-43. Bit disappointing, this was a Lean R.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
TX polling anecdata: For the last 10 years, I have lived two blocks from my polling location. Coming home from work, we drove by about 6, so one hour left till polls close. The place is packed. I have *never* seen it that full at that time of day on election day. Not even 2016. I would say at least twice the amount of cars in the lot.
I've already told the story, but I was the first voter last Saturday. The poll workers were extremely happy to chat (I brought them good breakfast and lots of coffee) and I asked one of them if they had been busy the prior week. For the first week of early voting, this location only had voting from 9-5. But, still, she got dead silent and slowly nodded her head like, "I have never seen so many vote so early."
I guess we will start knowing a little more in a scant few minutes.
In other news, in regards to the "where is Trump on the ballot" and Trump sending the e-mail saying, "Vote! I am on the ballot!"
I think part of his phrasing is just to GOTV. But, pairing it with literal voters not knowing he is not on the ballot.... I think that was planned so his base can get even more riled up and say "voter fraud! Trump's not on here!" When 2020 rolls around, they won't remember that he shouldn't be on the ballot. They will just remember Trump not on ballot, election stolen, let's go vote.
It's pretty sleazy, but completely the norm for him.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 4:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I've already told the story, but I was the first voter last Saturday. The poll workers were extremely happy to chat (I brought them good breakfast and lots of coffee) and I asked one of them if they had been busy the prior week. For the first week of early voting, this location only had voting from 9-5. But, still, she got dead silent and slowly nodded her head like, "I have never seen so many vote so early."
I guess we will start knowing a little more in a scant few minutes.
In other news, in regards to the "where is Trump on the ballot" and Trump sending the e-mail saying, "Vote! I am on the ballot!"
I think part of his phrasing is just to GOTV. But, pairing it with literal voters not knowing he is not on the ballot.... I think that was planned so his base can get even more riled up and say "voter fraud! Trump's not on here!" When 2020 rolls around, they won't remember that he shouldn't be on the ballot. They will just remember Trump not on ballot, election stolen, let's go vote.
It's pretty sleazy, but completely the norm for him.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 4:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Does Kentucky have any mandatory recount rules for a very close election?
Asking for KY-6.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 4:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Asking for KY-6.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 4:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Field report from CA-10, currently having to wait in line to vote for the first time in ~15 years of voting in this district. We had the largest canvassing operation in the country last weekend (so Iâm told), for Josh Harder. I am hopeful that we are flipping this district.
FWIW, the conversation around me has a general totally-fed-up-with-everything vibe, hoping that means lots of D down-ballot voting, too.
posted by LooseFilter at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
FWIW, the conversation around me has a general totally-fed-up-with-everything vibe, hoping that means lots of D down-ballot voting, too.
posted by LooseFilter at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
@mikememoli: NBC News: Donna Shalala is the winner in FL-27. Dem pickup
That's a nice pickup and was reasonably expected, modulo some brief anxiety when it got closer, but my question is still the margins. Winning these expected pickups is great, but the path to the House involves not losing all the tossups, and seeing decent margins on the less-close races will help reassure me about the late-to-call tossups.
posted by zachlipton at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
That's a nice pickup and was reasonably expected, modulo some brief anxiety when it got closer, but my question is still the margins. Winning these expected pickups is great, but the path to the House involves not losing all the tossups, and seeing decent margins on the less-close races will help reassure me about the late-to-call tossups.
posted by zachlipton at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Second flip. NBC calls Shalala (D) winning FL-27. There was worry earlier in the cycle about this one.
21 to go.
posted by chris24 at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
21 to go.
posted by chris24 at 5:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
VA-5 called for Riggelman (R). Another outside chance at a Dem pickup that didn't pan out.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:04 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:04 PM on November 6, 2018
Tom Carper [D] re-elected to Senate for Delaware.
Chris Murphy [D] re-elected to Senate for Connecticut.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Chris Murphy [D] re-elected to Senate for Connecticut.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Both Richard Mourdock (Indiana) and Todd Akin (Missouri) couldn't keep their Handmaid's Tale fantasies to themselves (cw: sexual abuse, language) and lost to Donnelly (D-IN) and McCaskill (D-MO), respectively. So far, Mike Braun hasn't tripped himself up with such blatant misogyny and that is leaving Donnelly with a harder hill to climb (we'll see about McCaskill).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Elizabeth Warren [D] re-elected to Senate for Massachusetts.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
Tim Kaine [D - Governor of Virginia] & Bernie Sanders [D - Senator of Vermont] will be returning (handily) for another term each.
posted by darkstar at 5:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by darkstar at 5:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Ben Cardin [D] re-elected to Senate for Maryland.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Sheldon Whitehouse [D] re-elected to Senate for Rhode Island.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Charlie Baker [R] is re-elected as Massachusetts governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:10 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 5:10 PM on November 6, 2018
Does Confederate States of America candidate Corey Stewart losing to Tim Kaine mean we'll start putting statues of Stewart up all over Virginia?
posted by COD at 5:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by COD at 5:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Illinois media is calling the governor's race for Pritzker (D), which is a flip (incumbent is Rauner (R)), but national media hasn't officially called yet. Illinois media thinks it'll be a "mid-to-high" double-digit win.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
In 2016, my mom and I polished off 2 bottles of wine watching the devastating returns. I still have nightmares from that night. Tonight I decided to keep it to one bottle and watch my "Concert For George" video while refreshing this page. Just finished watching Billy Preston sing "My Sweet Lord", so I'm good.
posted by sundrop at 5:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by sundrop at 5:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Mario Diaz-Balart [R-i] wins in Fl-25, about 61-29. Was rated Lean R.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:13 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 5:13 PM on November 6, 2018
Sherrod Brown [D] re-elected to Senate from Ohio.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Good news about Pritzker in Illinois. We need those governorships, what with the 2020 redistributing fights just around the corner.
posted by darkstar at 5:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by darkstar at 5:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
538's real-time tracker has Republican's House odds much improved (currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House)...
posted by thefoxgod at 5:15 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by thefoxgod at 5:15 PM on November 6, 2018
Media counts 110 at Rauner's party - Republican incumbent Illinois governor - and 1500 at Pritzker's; but 4,000 have RSVPed! That's basically Rauner's family and paid staff, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha I hate that guy.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House
Horse races have to have drama.
posted by zrail at 5:16 PM on November 6, 2018
Horse races have to have drama.
posted by zrail at 5:16 PM on November 6, 2018
Bob Casey [D] re-elected to Senate for Pennsylvania.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House
That reflects my sinking gut feeling. The performances in tossup/lean-R races do not feel like a wave.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
That reflects my sinking gut feeling. The performances in tossup/lean-R races do not feel like a wave.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Iâm sending a picture of my dog wearing her âI votedâ sticker in reply to every âPlease hurry and vote for the local Democratâ txt I receive today. (Along with a âthank you for making something positive happen today.â) The turner-outers have sure done their part today.
posted by notyou at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by notyou at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I'm still hopeful Dems can at least win control, but the chance of a big wave seems pretty low at this point.
posted by thefoxgod at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by thefoxgod at 5:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Brian Mast [R-i] holds on in FL-18 about 54-46, was Lean R.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:20 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 5:20 PM on November 6, 2018
currently 1 in 3 for Republicans to hold House
1 in 2
posted by avalonian at 5:20 PM on November 6, 2018
1 in 2
posted by avalonian at 5:20 PM on November 6, 2018
Sinking feeling as I watch Nelson and Gillum fall behind? Check
posted by localhuman at 5:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by localhuman at 5:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Holy shit it's going to be a nail biter for Gillum here in FL eh?
posted by RolandOfEld at 5:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by RolandOfEld at 5:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Now 538 has the Dems as having a 52% chance of winning the house and I just hate myself for even looking at the returns at all.
posted by lydhre at 5:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by lydhre at 5:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Where are yâall seeing that on 538? Mine says Republican have 1/8 chances.
posted by gucci mane at 5:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by gucci mane at 5:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
3 in 5. We are now in longshot territory. Again.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:22 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:22 PM on November 6, 2018
Where are yâall seeing that on 538? Mine says Republican have 1/8 chances.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
posted by avalonian at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2018
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
posted by avalonian at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2018
What the fuck? Are people just lying to pollsters?
How do you go from a statistically sound average of a net gain of 36 seats to maybe squeaking out 20?
posted by darkstar at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
How do you go from a statistically sound average of a net gain of 36 seats to maybe squeaking out 20?
posted by darkstar at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I would caution against reading too much into the real-time trackers at 538: my gut feeling is that those trackers are probably susceptible to the vagaries of piece-by-piece vote reporting. I could be wrong, of course, but I think a little wariness about extrapolating from them is in order.
posted by scrump at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by scrump at 5:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I mean, it was 14 out of 15 half an hour ago but this is absolutely not the direction I want this to trend. I understand it is still volatile but fuck.
posted by lydhre at 5:24 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by lydhre at 5:24 PM on November 6, 2018
Holy shit it's going to be a nail biter for Gillum here in FL eh?
Yes, but it was always going to be.
posted by scrump at 5:24 PM on November 6, 2018
Yes, but it was always going to be.
posted by scrump at 5:24 PM on November 6, 2018
538 also predicts a real time seat forecast of D+25. It's too early to panic.
posted by Quonab at 5:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Quonab at 5:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
538 is currently saying an expected Dem pickup of 20. I will be really shocked if Dems only pick up 20 -- that would be pretty unprecedented for a midterm with a president with such low approval. Stranger things have happened, but it would be a worse polling and general modeling miss than 2016, by a long shot.
[Edit: Now 25. Don't sweat the swinging needle folks!]
posted by chortly at 5:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
[Edit: Now 25. Don't sweat the swinging needle folks!]
posted by chortly at 5:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I would caution against reading too much into the real-time trackers at 538
Yeah it's up to 5/7 chance, so there's a ton of variability. Don't rejoice. Don't panic.
posted by thegears at 5:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Yeah it's up to 5/7 chance, so there's a ton of variability. Don't rejoice. Don't panic.
posted by thegears at 5:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Yeah, in last 60 seconds it went from 60.7% chance of Repub control, to ~40% chance. So don't watch the live polls folks.
posted by sideshow at 5:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by sideshow at 5:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Where are yâall seeing that on 538? Mine says Republican have 1/8 chances.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
Ten seconds ago, my screen there read:
House
4 in 7
Chance Democrats win control (57.2%)
3 in 7
Chance Republicans win control (42.8%)
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:26 PM on November 6, 2018
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
Ten seconds ago, my screen there read:
House
4 in 7
Chance Democrats win control (57.2%)
3 in 7
Chance Republicans win control (42.8%)
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:26 PM on November 6, 2018
I'm having trouble reconciling the NY Times live results, where it seems like the Dems are doing pretty well, with the 538 real-time forecast, where it seems like my stomach is a dead jellyfish washed up on a beach being picked at by crows
posted by oulipian at 5:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by oulipian at 5:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Menendez (D) holds New Jersey for the Senate. That's one worst-case scenario off the table.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
posted by saturday_morning at 5:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
Can we not real time update here the real time updates from 538? I think we just established they are way more noise than signal.
posted by COD at 5:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
posted by COD at 5:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
Frankly I find it irresponsible to have live trackers based on early results from the east coast while huge swaths of the country are still voting.
posted by zrail at 5:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
posted by zrail at 5:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Yeah, I think one takeaway for Silver is to make that a little less reactive.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
From 538's blog, about the real-time forecasts:
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. Itâs being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of âlikely Republicanâ districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasnât been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
Breathe.
posted by reductiondesign at 5:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [31 favorites]
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. Itâs being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of âlikely Republicanâ districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasnât been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."
Breathe.
posted by reductiondesign at 5:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [31 favorites]
*breathing into paper bag*
Okay. Okay.
Yes, the tracker is totally clickbait. Will not keep refreshing.
posted by darkstar at 5:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Okay. Okay.
Yes, the tracker is totally clickbait. Will not keep refreshing.
posted by darkstar at 5:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Mod note: Quit tracking the trackers, my peeps.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 5:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 5:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
NYT forecasts are not live yet. Nate Cohn tweets, âWell. We have issues over here. Don't know when we'll have something.â
posted by mbrubeck at 5:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by mbrubeck at 5:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Illinois governor called for Pritzker(D). [edit: missed this above in my search somehow..]
posted by thefoxgod at 5:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by thefoxgod at 5:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
This time is the margin of terror my friends. Hang on.
posted by nubs at 5:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by nubs at 5:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Forget the live election results. Letâs do it 19th Century Style! (SLXKCD)
posted by snortasprocket at 5:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by snortasprocket at 5:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Quick precinct report from Minneapolis 1-3. We have just under 2500 registered voters in our precinct. As of around 6:45 CST. As a comparison, in the 2014 midterms, the precinct had 1566 total votes, out of just under 2300 registered voters. In the 2016 election, there were just under 2400 registered voters, with a total vote count of 2231 (~94%!!)
Mood was good, even when our vote tabulator jammed and people had to wait. We didn't have enough booths, so people were sitting at table filling out ballots and even filling them in up against the walls. Lots of people (many of them older) asking us how turnout was and when we told them it was good, they all smiled and said "Good, good!" One guy in his 50s asked if we were seeing lots of millenials. I did see a lot of younger people, all of whom seemed happy to be voting and taking the responsibility seriously.
posted by triggerfinger at 5:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Mood was good, even when our vote tabulator jammed and people had to wait. We didn't have enough booths, so people were sitting at table filling out ballots and even filling them in up against the walls. Lots of people (many of them older) asking us how turnout was and when we told them it was good, they all smiled and said "Good, good!" One guy in his 50s asked if we were seeing lots of millenials. I did see a lot of younger people, all of whom seemed happy to be voting and taking the responsibility seriously.
posted by triggerfinger at 5:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I was going to kind of post this in response to all of the concern over 538's live trackers, which it does kind of address, but it's really saying something wider than that. I still think it's interesting, and if you go and read it, hey, that's 4 minutes that you didn't spend refreshing 538 and panicking. The Great Slate's @pinboard writes about Politics As Sport:
We've reconciled our contradictory views of voting by learning to talk about elections like we talk about sports. Both are now the province of a tiny group of millionaire specialists, with a larger but equally exclusive group of analysts to provide guidance and commentary. The job of a citizen is to pick a team to root for and turn out on game day. It is understood that these citizen-fans will never get to go on the field, but their enthusiasm helps the team and so it is important that they show up.posted by chappell, ambrose at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
One thing I like about the FiveThirtyEight predictions website is how it makes the parallel explicit by intermixing election coverage with sports. While it's understood that there's an element of chance in both domains, in the statistical limit, the thinking goes, the outcome of every contest depends on structural factors that can be teased out of the data.
Tom Wolf [D-i] re-elected PA governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I know everyone is watching Florida and biting nails. It sure looks like a lot of outstanding vote in Broward and Palm Beach and still a bunch in Miami-Dade. Don't assume anything until we see those votes.
posted by Justinian at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
I know everyone is watching Florida and biting nails. It sure looks like a lot of outstanding vote in Broward and Palm Beach and still a bunch in Miami-Dade. Don't assume anything until we see those votes.
Strongly agree. And it's worth noting that this is coming from the person for whom the JCPL is named!
posted by scrump at 5:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Strongly agree. And it's worth noting that this is coming from the person for whom the JCPL is named!
posted by scrump at 5:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Tons of polls aren't even closed, let alone counted.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by aspersioncast at 5:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Tom Wolf [D-i] re-elected PA governor.
Guess he had The Right Stuff.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Guess he had The Right Stuff.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Mr. Silver:
Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.posted by chrchr at 5:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yes. Still hundreds of thousands of votes in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, and they're breaking 60-40 for Gillum and Nelson. Three counties yet to report in the Panhandle, and they'll go 70-30 DeSantis and Scott, but they're small populations.
posted by martin q blank at 5:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by martin q blank at 5:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
We talked a lot about canvassing by varying means over the last few months. I thought this interaction my friend Ed had this morning in Florida was pretty great and a nice little palate cleanser in these stressful hours.âMartha better get her shit together and drive her punk ass to the pollsâ
posted by phearlez at 5:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by phearlez at 5:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Gina Raimondo [D-i] re-elected Rhode Island governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
If you need some relief, R. Eric Thomas brings us An Exhaustive Ranking of 'I Voted' Stickers From Around the Nation
posted by zachlipton at 5:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 5:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I have to watch this for like, work but I still feel like Iâm gonna barf!
posted by The Whelk at 5:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 5:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
The cruelest result will be Beto winning and still 54-46 Republican.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
A bit of good news out of Florida at least: Amendment 4, which restores voting rights to most convicted felons on completion of their sentence, is looking good: 64-36
posted by zachlipton at 5:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 5:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
If the Dems take the House but not the Senate, I wonder what their strategy will be. At the very least they should do what the Republicans did for Obama and stall everything Trump tries to do that they can.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Sangermaine at 5:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
if Beto wins that will be the greatest FUCK YOU to Ted Cruz ever and I will be okay with that as a Texas non binary gay as fuck trans woman.
And I will rise tomorrow to fight like hell because What Would Molly Ivins do?
posted by nikaspark at 5:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
And I will rise tomorrow to fight like hell because What Would Molly Ivins do?
posted by nikaspark at 5:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
The cruelest result will be Beto winning and still 54-46 Republican.
I agree, but don't discount the pleasure of seeing Ted Cruz thrown out on his ass.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 5:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I agree, but don't discount the pleasure of seeing Ted Cruz thrown out on his ass.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 5:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Speaking for myself only, I'd be perfectly fine with a strategy of obstructing absolutely everything coming out of the White House, the Senate, and the other side of the House, but I'm simple like that.
posted by scrump at 5:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by scrump at 5:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
A bit of good news out of Florida at least: Amendment 4, which restores voting rights to most convicted felons on completion of their sentence, is looking good: 64-36
I'm really glad to see that. Honestly, some part of any "blue wave" we can muster up will be to fix things on a local level - restoring voting rights, turfing out bigoted local officials, etc. Yes, I'm whistling past the graveyard, and NOT looking at that damn needle.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I'm really glad to see that. Honestly, some part of any "blue wave" we can muster up will be to fix things on a local level - restoring voting rights, turfing out bigoted local officials, etc. Yes, I'm whistling past the graveyard, and NOT looking at that damn needle.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
@Nate_Cohn: Well, technical difficulties persist on the needle. But the basic outline of the night seems to be clear: A rehash of the 2016 election, but with more Democratic strength. What's the consequence of this? Well, the "big" dem map always supposed being able to breakthrough in a long list of red districts. That may yet happen, but so far it's tough to see. Instead, we get the piece-meal, district by district battle where the GOP basically has to run the table in a lot of districts.
Why yes, the GOP running the table in a lot of tossup districts is my exact nightmare, thanks.
But I'm glad your STUPID FUCKING NEEDLE is broken.
posted by zachlipton at 5:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Why yes, the GOP running the table in a lot of tossup districts is my exact nightmare, thanks.
But I'm glad your STUPID FUCKING NEEDLE is broken.
posted by zachlipton at 5:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Governor Charlie Baker (R) is projected to win re-election in MA. So is Senator Elizabeth Warren (D).
Iâve been living here for 13 years and I still marvel at all the assholes who can vote for both at the same damn time. Sigh.
posted by lydhre at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Iâve been living here for 13 years and I still marvel at all the assholes who can vote for both at the same damn time. Sigh.
posted by lydhre at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
KY-6 went to R-Barr!
posted by mario_incandenza at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by mario_incandenza at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018
I have no idea how my (indoor) cow-colored-cat has ended up with blue ink all over one paw, but I'm choosing to take it as a good omen.
posted by TwoStride at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
The cruelest result will be Beto winning and still 54-46 Republican.
It would be amazing if O'Rourke wins, but even if he doesn't it's already a win for progressives. The fact that a Dem has made a Texas Senate race this close would have been a joke even a few years ago.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
It would be amazing if O'Rourke wins, but even if he doesn't it's already a win for progressives. The fact that a Dem has made a Texas Senate race this close would have been a joke even a few years ago.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
@baseballot: ABC has projected that Mike Braun will win #INsen. Democrats couldn't afford a single loss in the Senate but the map just made that too hard.
That's Braun (R) over Donnelly (D)
posted by zachlipton at 5:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
That's Braun (R) over Donnelly (D)
posted by zachlipton at 5:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
The race in VA-07 is frikkin close. But... I think Spanberger (D) might pull off the upset? By a thousand votes? That would be huge since it would be the first flip of a district the Democrats weren't fully expected to win.
Virginia DoE has Brat (R) ahead by 6000 votes... but for some reason they dont have Chesterfield County votes included... and Chesterfield County is reporting Spanberger (D) has a net of about 8500 votes out of Chesterfield.
If that isn't some sort of reporting error, and I don't think it is given what I know of Chesterfield, that would mean Spanberger is actually ahead by 2.5k votes with almost all the vote in. Anyone see any way to read this differently?
posted by Justinian at 5:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Virginia DoE has Brat (R) ahead by 6000 votes... but for some reason they dont have Chesterfield County votes included... and Chesterfield County is reporting Spanberger (D) has a net of about 8500 votes out of Chesterfield.
If that isn't some sort of reporting error, and I don't think it is given what I know of Chesterfield, that would mean Spanberger is actually ahead by 2.5k votes with almost all the vote in. Anyone see any way to read this differently?
posted by Justinian at 5:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
That's awesome, witchen.
posted by yoga at 5:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by yoga at 5:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
This needle...it vibrates?
posted by uosuaq at 5:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by uosuaq at 5:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
If the Dems take the House but not the Senate, I wonder what their strategy will be. At the very least they should do what the Republicans did for Obama and stall everything Trump tries to do that they can.
@aabramson: Pelosi says that WHEN democrats win they will strive for bipartisanship. âWe have to try,â she says, citing the founding fathers
posted by zombieflanders at 5:51 PM on November 6, 2018
@aabramson: Pelosi says that WHEN democrats win they will strive for bipartisanship. âWe have to try,â she says, citing the founding fathers
posted by zombieflanders at 5:51 PM on November 6, 2018
someone set fire to Shadâs tire shop in an effort to make the Miller folks look bad.
Reichstirefire?
posted by nickmark at 5:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Reichstirefire?
posted by nickmark at 5:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I live in VA-07, there was some issue with voting in Chesterfield and judges have ordered two polls to stay open until 9 PM. It's going to be a while before we know what how VA-07 goes. Maybe they don't send results to the state until polls are closed?
posted by COD at 5:53 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by COD at 5:53 PM on November 6, 2018
I live in VA-07, there was some issue with voting in Chesterfield and judges have ordered two polls to stay open until 9 PM. It's going to be a while before we know what how VA-07 goes. Maybe they don't send results to the state until polls are closed?
You're right! That's why the results from Chesterfield aren't in the state site yet. But it does leave one wondering why Chesterfield is reporting partial results while a couple polls are open. Still, I see Spanberger (D) moving ahead when Chesterfield reports.
posted by Justinian at 5:55 PM on November 6, 2018
You're right! That's why the results from Chesterfield aren't in the state site yet. But it does leave one wondering why Chesterfield is reporting partial results while a couple polls are open. Still, I see Spanberger (D) moving ahead when Chesterfield reports.
posted by Justinian at 5:55 PM on November 6, 2018
I've been obsessively hitting refresh on the VA DOE website wondering what was happening with Chesterfield, so thanks! I'm feeling optimistic for Spanberger, so far Brat is ahead but he's consistently slid 6-7% from his 2016 results. A slide that large in Chesterfield might be enough for Spanberger to win.
posted by peeedro at 5:56 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by peeedro at 5:56 PM on November 6, 2018
Iâve seen the needle and the damage done.
posted by darkstar at 5:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by darkstar at 5:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
posted by Reverend John at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
TPM is showing Texas in blue right now. Is this stupidly early, or should I get my hopes up?
posted by uosuaq at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by uosuaq at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018
Moment of satisfaction: Safiya Wazir(D), a 27-year-old refugee from Afghanistan, won her seat in New Hampshire's house of representatives.
posted by schoolgirl report at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [61 favorites]
posted by schoolgirl report at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [61 favorites]
VA-02 is looking interesting, with Luria (D) nearly tied with incumbent Taylor (R-incumbent). Nobody was quite sure how to rate that race, but it was leaning toward Taylor.
NBC News now also calling IN-Sen as a Republican pickup for Braun (R) defeating Donnelly (D)
posted by zachlipton at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018
NBC News now also calling IN-Sen as a Republican pickup for Braun (R) defeating Donnelly (D)
posted by zachlipton at 5:57 PM on November 6, 2018
Sorry, to correct my typo above, as of around 6:45 CST, we had 2075 votes in. Out of just under 2500 registered voters in Minneapolis 1-3. :-)
posted by triggerfinger at 5:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by triggerfinger at 5:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Is this stupidly early, or should I get my hopes up?
Yes, and probably not.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Yes, and probably not.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Re tpm/tx - it is oscillating red/blue with the lead
posted by j_curiouser at 5:59 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by j_curiouser at 5:59 PM on November 6, 2018
I'm not going to clutter the thread with state legislative gains, but follow the DLCC for them.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Field report from very R Central Pennsylvania: Polls were busy ALL DAY LONG, with barely time to get a drink of water. Turnout had to be close to 50 percent, at a guess. Mood was "This election is important" rather than the grim anger of 2016. a not-tiny number of families voting together, and more first-time voters than I might have expected. The crew working the election was good--on the ball, helpful, and speedy. A special shoutout to the election judge for solving problems for voters and chasing down concrete answers for them. A++, would be a poll worker again!
posted by MonkeyToes at 5:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by MonkeyToes at 5:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Is this stupidly early, or should I get my hopes up?
Yes, and probably not.
That's kind of what I was thinking, while another part of me was thinking "can you idiots not adjust your map algorithms to reflect this kind of thing? Shades of grayish red and blue or something? How hard is that?"
posted by uosuaq at 6:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yes, and probably not.
That's kind of what I was thinking, while another part of me was thinking "can you idiots not adjust your map algorithms to reflect this kind of thing? Shades of grayish red and blue or something? How hard is that?"
posted by uosuaq at 6:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I have a terrible migraine and had resigned myself to missing my first ever election since becoming eligible to vote but I pulled a last minute rally and took a picture of my sticker five minutes before polls closed! According to reports, an hour before polls closed, RI turnout was 103% of 2014, 72% of 2016, and 43% of registered voters. I don't have the final numbers though.
posted by Ruki at 6:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [31 favorites]
posted by Ruki at 6:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [31 favorites]
Nate Cohn injects some oxygen. It's a thread but here's the last tweet summary: Basically, the pattern so far--greater polarization--was the GOPs ticket to a good night in the Senate and close race for the House, as I wrote on Monday. But this gets GOP to a closer race, not to a majority without *more* strength than they have so far.
The GOP strategy here reminds me of... uhh... that guy from before I was born who told Nixon they could cleave the nation on racial and partisan lines but that he thought Nixon would get the bigger half. The GOP has gone all in on this, hoping for the bigger half. They don't have the bigger half... but they gerrymandered it so that 47% might be enough.
Let's send some energy to PA and NJ where the districts are more favorable demographically.
posted by Justinian at 6:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
The GOP strategy here reminds me of... uhh... that guy from before I was born who told Nixon they could cleave the nation on racial and partisan lines but that he thought Nixon would get the bigger half. The GOP has gone all in on this, hoping for the bigger half. They don't have the bigger half... but they gerrymandered it so that 47% might be enough.
Let's send some energy to PA and NJ where the districts are more favorable demographically.
posted by Justinian at 6:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
NBC News going with an early call for WV-Senate for Manchin (D). That was reasonably expected, and I still don't know how he does it, but an important race.
posted by zachlipton at 6:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 6:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Re tpm/tx - it is oscillating red/blue with the lead
This is your cue to go watch or see a movie.
posted by rhizome at 6:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
This is your cue to go watch or see a movie.
posted by rhizome at 6:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
This from the Richmond paper political reporter.
Where VA-07 stands: With almost everything in but Chesterfield, @vaELECT shows Brat up 6,480 votes. The incomplete Chesterfield results show Spanberger up 8,521 votes
posted by COD at 6:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Where VA-07 stands: With almost everything in but Chesterfield, @vaELECT shows Brat up 6,480 votes. The incomplete Chesterfield results show Spanberger up 8,521 votes
posted by COD at 6:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Damn. The Senate is lost. Here's hoping the Democrats can take the House.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:04 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Sangermaine at 6:04 PM on November 6, 2018
Manchin does it via means that cause regular wailing, gnashing of teeth, and rending of garments here on the Blue. Which, in sum, is probably a good thing if it keeps that otherwise red-as-hell seat in the Dem caucus.
posted by darkstar at 6:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by darkstar at 6:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Mark Murray:
House Dems with *narrow* leads in key FL-26 and VA-2 racesposted by Justinian at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
FL-26 (91%)
Mucarsel-Powell (D) 51% Curbelo (R) 49%
VA-2 (88%)
Luria (D) 51%
Taylor (R) 49%
NBC calling TN-SEN for Blackburn (R). Sorry Taylor Swift.
There was a lot of last minute R money in that race.
posted by zachlipton at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
There was a lot of last minute R money in that race.
posted by zachlipton at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Senate is Republican almost certainly now (just need one more). Five thirty eight has Republicans at 3/7 chances of winning the house, up from 1/7 earlier today. Looks like 2016 all over again!
posted by mario_incandenza at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by mario_incandenza at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
If anyone wants a pick-me-up, Republican challengers to Democratic incumbents in state-wide races in PA aren't just losing, they are getting embarrassingly crushed. And the shady as fuck write-in campaign against the uncontested State Assembly seat in my district that I talked about in the fucking fuck thread doesn't seem to have had much effect, so that's a relief.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
The statewide races in Florida (Senate and Governor) are looking grim, but the Pensacola News Journal has called a win for Amendment 4 to restore voting rights for former felons! This is huge for future elections in FL.
posted by mbrubeck at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
NO MANCHIN TALK
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Blackburn [R] wins Tennessee Senate, oof.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:07 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 6:07 PM on November 6, 2018
Amendment 4 in Florida is very much passed, by like 2 million votes (64-36 right now). That restores voting rights to 1.4 million people!
posted by zachlipton at 6:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [62 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 6:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [62 favorites]
NBC reporting there is not a blue wave forming.
posted by mario_incandenza at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by mario_incandenza at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
How does Amendment 4 happen while the Dems will lose the big races? Do. Not. Understand.
posted by rbf1138 at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by rbf1138 at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Amendment 4 in Florida is very much passed, by like 2 million votes (64-36 right now). That restores voting rights to 1.4 million people!
Yes! In your face, Scott!
I still remember fuming after watching him chairing the committee reviewing and denying restoration of voting rights to applicants.
posted by darkstar at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yes! In your face, Scott!
I still remember fuming after watching him chairing the committee reviewing and denying restoration of voting rights to applicants.
posted by darkstar at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
@NewsFallon: Among the supporters tonight âŚ@SenatorMenendezâŠâs HQ is Evelyn Arroyo-Maultsby, a juror on his federal corruption trial. She achieved some fame when she left the jury last year during deliberations to go on vacation. She wouldâve voted for acquittal.
This is an extremely New Jersey thing to happen.
posted by zachlipton at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
This is an extremely New Jersey thing to happen.
posted by zachlipton at 6:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
It's about stopping the bleeding in the Senate at this point, and a matter of what McConnell can do with 54 or 55 seats vs 52. A instant call for Manchin and not for Cramer in ND is about all the good news there is.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
NBC reporting there is not a blue wave forming.
Gee, you think?
Racism worked. The GOP threw the most abominable shit it could find at the wall and it stuck. Turnout went way way way up and it wasn't a push-back against fascism, just greater engagement all around. Even if we pull it out in the House I just want to sit in a dark room for the rest of my life.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
Gee, you think?
Racism worked. The GOP threw the most abominable shit it could find at the wall and it stuck. Turnout went way way way up and it wasn't a push-back against fascism, just greater engagement all around. Even if we pull it out in the House I just want to sit in a dark room for the rest of my life.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
The Blue Wave⢠was always going to be just barely taking the house.
posted by sideshow at 6:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
posted by sideshow at 6:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Amendment 4 in Florida is very much passed, by like 2 million votes (64-36 right now). That restores voting rights to 1.4 million people!
How is it possible that this happens at the same time that it appears the white supremacist is going to win?
posted by dis_integration at 6:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
How is it possible that this happens at the same time that it appears the white supremacist is going to win?
posted by dis_integration at 6:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I just don't get it. I've had neighbors flag me down as I drove out of my driveway to thank me for having a Gillum sign in my yard. There have been SO many Gillum/Nelson signs in my area (Duval county). Everyone voted for Amendment 4 but this Governor and Senate race are looking very grim. I love my home state, but I truly truly can't understand this. I'm literally sick to my stomach.
posted by hollygoheavy at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by hollygoheavy at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
The Times covered the caravan on A1 every day since Trump started this BS. Media didn't learn a thing. 'But her emails' became 'But the caravan.'
posted by chris24 at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Other bright spots: though Massachusetts unfortunately re-elected Republican Charlie Baker as governor, the state overwhelming re-affirmed transgender rights (with about 78% of the vote so far) and is voting in favor of trying to dismantle Citizens United (also about 80% in favor so far).
posted by TwoStride at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
rbf1138: "How does Amendment 4 happen while the Dems will lose the big races? Do. Not. Understand."
FWIW, the GOP for the most part didn't take any stand on it, or campaign against it.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018
FWIW, the GOP for the most part didn't take any stand on it, or campaign against it.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:13 PM on November 6, 2018
Racism worked.
Yeah. One of the livebloggers on 538 pointed out that Corey Stewart got about as many votes as Ed Gillespie did in 2017 in the Va governor's race. There was no vote penalty in going from a mainstream republican who traded in a little light dog whistling to a full-on neo-confederate. Those are all republican voters now.
posted by peeedro at 6:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Yeah. One of the livebloggers on 538 pointed out that Corey Stewart got about as many votes as Ed Gillespie did in 2017 in the Va governor's race. There was no vote penalty in going from a mainstream republican who traded in a little light dog whistling to a full-on neo-confederate. Those are all republican voters now.
posted by peeedro at 6:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
KY-6 with Barr (R) winning (51%) over McGrath (D) shows we're not getting the big wave we wanted, but I think the results so far show a fairly good Dem showing. I still have hope for FL. Texas looks (so far) better than I expected, but Beto just getting close will make me happy and I didn't dare hope for a win.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
How does Amendment 4 happen while the Dems will lose the big races?
They didn't tie it to racist fears, oddly. Lacking that, law and order voters read it as "they paid their time."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
They didn't tie it to racist fears, oddly. Lacking that, law and order voters read it as "they paid their time."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Gretchen Whitmer (D) wins Michigan governor seat
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
The Times covered the caravan on A1 every day since Trump started this BS. Media didn't learn a thing. 'But her emails' became 'But the caravan.'
At some point we need to recognize they're doing this on purpose. They want this. They've been working for it the entire time.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
At some point we need to recognize they're doing this on purpose. They want this. They've been working for it the entire time.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Samuel Sinyangwe
40% of all black men in the state of Florida just became eligible to vote *today.* Think about that.
posted by chris24 at 6:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [93 favorites]
40% of all black men in the state of Florida just became eligible to vote *today.* Think about that.
posted by chris24 at 6:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [93 favorites]
Mod note: A few comments removed, go right ahead and cool it.
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Rosie M. Banks: "Gretchen Whitmer (D) wins Michigan governor seat"
This is very good.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
This is very good.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
In lighter news, it is legitimately frightening how tasty the Dark and Stormy's I mentioned over in the catch-all thread are. Dark rum + extra strength ginger beer and lime FTW.  I say this as someone who doesn't like rum.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
North Carolina Republicans' deceptively written constitutional amendment to gerrymander the state judiciary so the GOP could pack the NC Supreme Court has lost in a landslide
posted by zombieflanders at 6:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 6:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
Amanda Whitman, founder of Run for Something, just tweeted::
A thing to keep in mind: The GOP has invested in state & local govât for decades. They won the seats, wrote the rules, drew the districts, and put their thumb on the scales to make it harder for us to regain power. It will take more than just 18 months to undo that.posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
Mostly I just think all citizens should be allowed to vote, even if theyâve served time for serious crimes.
posted by Superplin at 6:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Superplin at 6:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Mostly I just think all citizens should be allowed to vote
If the rule we followed brought us to this, of what use was the rule?
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
If the rule we followed brought us to this, of what use was the rule?
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I just think all citizens should be allowed to voteâŚ
I'll go even further. You filed income tax returns to the U.S. government? Here's your ballot. I have zero issues with non-citizens voting if they're paying in.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
I'll go even further. You filed income tax returns to the U.S. government? Here's your ballot. I have zero issues with non-citizens voting if they're paying in.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
furthest: if you are a billionaire who evades taxes you should not get a vote and not be allowed to donate to any campaign above PTA president.
posted by poffin boffin at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
posted by poffin boffin at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
If Beto wins or even comes within a two points, that means democrats really need to nominate a presidential candidate with an eye on Texas. Two years to develop a GOTV campaign.
posted by skewed at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by skewed at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Cuomo, of course, won in NY. The worst fucking result tonight will be that asshole thinking this is a sign for him to run for President in 2020.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Sangermaine at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
NBC calling CO-06 for Crow (D) over Coffman (R-Incumbent). Another expected result (Republicans pulled their money from the race a while ago) in a Clinton-won district, but that's a 4th Democratic pickup.
The trend is starting to look like existing partisan leans being more extreme than before, all the way around.
posted by zachlipton at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
The trend is starting to look like existing partisan leans being more extreme than before, all the way around.
posted by zachlipton at 6:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Suburbs are coming in strong for Democrats. That bodes well for California, NJ, PA etc. The problem we're having in FL is so many rural voters in the statewide races.
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Two states allow currently incarcerated felons to vote. This should really be the goal.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 6:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
"Turnout went way way way up and it wasn't a push-back against fascism, just greater engagement all around."
I think this is too pessimistic. We already knew a whole lot of Republicans are happy with heretofore noxious shit so I think expecting some huge repudiation of the GOP was unrealistic. While I worried about some 2016-style horrifying surprise, I mostly worried about a barely squeaky win of the House and always thought a Senate win unlikely. So, for me, things so far seem pretty good now.
CNN is now going on about Democratic disappointment but that's just finding a story. A huge Dem wave wasn't likely and making it all about Dems being disappoinnted and that the Trump racism "worked" is wrong. The media always frames things negatively for the Democrats, I don't see any reason to go along with this.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
I think this is too pessimistic. We already knew a whole lot of Republicans are happy with heretofore noxious shit so I think expecting some huge repudiation of the GOP was unrealistic. While I worried about some 2016-style horrifying surprise, I mostly worried about a barely squeaky win of the House and always thought a Senate win unlikely. So, for me, things so far seem pretty good now.
CNN is now going on about Democratic disappointment but that's just finding a story. A huge Dem wave wasn't likely and making it all about Dems being disappoinnted and that the Trump racism "worked" is wrong. The media always frames things negatively for the Democrats, I don't see any reason to go along with this.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
I was expecting the blue wave to fail but not like this. This shit fucking hurts.
posted by RedShrek at 6:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by RedShrek at 6:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The night isn't over.
posted by scrump at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by scrump at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
sideshow: The Blue Wave⢠was always going to be just barely taking the house.
Yeah, that's my recollection, insofar as "Blue Wave" was ever defined at all. But I'm pretty sure its definition naturally shifted in the public's mind as the possibility of a Democratic win became everyone's baseline assumption.
I mean, the term could be defined as "better than expected" which means it's almost definitionally impossible as expectations line up closer and closer to reality.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Yeah, that's my recollection, insofar as "Blue Wave" was ever defined at all. But I'm pretty sure its definition naturally shifted in the public's mind as the possibility of a Democratic win became everyone's baseline assumption.
I mean, the term could be defined as "better than expected" which means it's almost definitionally impossible as expectations line up closer and closer to reality.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
If Beto wins or even comes within a two points, that means democrats really need to nominate a presidential candidate with an eye on Texas. Two years to develop a GOTV campaign.
I've been extraordinarily sketpical of Beto's chances. But frak it, if he pulls it out I'm all in on the Beto Express.
Right now we have a whole lot of Democratic pickups that haven't been called because they're so close. If the Democrats hold on in a lot of those races (knock on wood) it will shift the outlook tremendously and quickly. AND Spanberger (D) just pulled into a lead in VA-07! Go ABBY.
posted by Justinian at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
I've been extraordinarily sketpical of Beto's chances. But frak it, if he pulls it out I'm all in on the Beto Express.
Right now we have a whole lot of Democratic pickups that haven't been called because they're so close. If the Democrats hold on in a lot of those races (knock on wood) it will shift the outlook tremendously and quickly. AND Spanberger (D) just pulled into a lead in VA-07! Go ABBY.
posted by Justinian at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Polls are still open in many states, maybe we could hold off on calling the entire election a failure? Or take that to the fucking fuck thread?
posted by palomar at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [72 favorites]
posted by palomar at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [72 favorites]
I know people are celebrating Amendment 4 in FL but what makes you think the FL legislature can't override this?
posted by RedShrek at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by RedShrek at 6:32 PM on November 6, 2018
The worst is knowing that certain inhabitants of the White House will gloat about the failed blue wave even though people who understand how probability works are not particularly surprised about what looks to be a mild underperformance by the Dems compared to hopes/expectations.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Even minors (can) pay taxes. If the kremlin fesses up and pays payroll deductions do they get to swell the voter rolls too?
Tying money to the franchise is a terrible idea. I say this as a Canadian - please donât screw up your pseudo democracy any further.
posted by mce at 6:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Tying money to the franchise is a terrible idea. I say this as a Canadian - please donât screw up your pseudo democracy any further.
posted by mce at 6:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
More good news out of NC: North Carolina voters reject Republicans' deceptively written constitutional amendment to hobble the state Elections Board through partisan gridlock so Dems can't expand early voting under Dem Gov. Roy Cooper
posted by zombieflanders at 6:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 6:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Rosie M. Banks: "Gretchen Whitmer (D) wins Michigan governor seat"
This is very good.
Yes, but why in the heck is James (R) leading Stabenow (D) in the MI Senate race? MI wasn't even supposed to be a battleground for Senate.
posted by Preserver at 6:34 PM on November 6, 2018
Mod note: We can probably let the thought experiments about alternate voting models rest in here, there's plenty of actually-happening stuff to track.
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
All the remaining VA-07 precincts are in Spanberger (D) territory. I'm calling it.
This is Eric Cantor's old seat. And it's a huge flip.
posted by Justinian at 6:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
This is Eric Cantor's old seat. And it's a huge flip.
posted by Justinian at 6:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Ha, I am moving at the end of this month so I am very happy to still have been here to cast a vote against Coffman.
posted by rewil at 6:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by rewil at 6:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Iâm calling Beto beating Trump in 2020. The blue wave may not be as big as we wanted but it IS happening and the earthquake that will cause it is in Texas.
posted by jasondigitized at 6:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 6:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I've been extraordinarily sketpical of Beto's chances. But frak it, if he pulls it out I'm all in on the Beto Express.
There seems like there's no way Beto can possibly win this one but if he does he's also going to be President in 2020. Also he's a snack.
posted by dis_integration at 6:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
There seems like there's no way Beto can possibly win this one but if he does he's also going to be President in 2020. Also he's a snack.
posted by dis_integration at 6:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
As a former resident of Richmond, FUCK YEAH on VA-07
posted by skewed at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by skewed at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The Virginia congressional districts surrounding me, 6, 5 and 9, have all been taken by the Republicans- to the surprise of no one.
posted by PHINC at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by PHINC at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yes, but why in the heck is James (R) leading Stabenow (D) in the MI Senate race?
NY Times has 13% reporting, mostly rural precincts. Importantly Wayne County (Detroit) and Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) have very few precincts reporting.
posted by zrail at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
NY Times has 13% reporting, mostly rural precincts. Importantly Wayne County (Detroit) and Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) have very few precincts reporting.
posted by zrail at 6:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
ABC News projects that Democrat Jared Polis will win the gubernatorial race in Colorado.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
NBC News projects Jared Polis (D) will win Colorado and become the first openly gay governor ever elected
posted by zombieflanders at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
posted by sciatrix at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
why in the heck is James (R) leading Stabenow (D) in the MI Senate race?
Metro Detroit comes in very late and is basically all D.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Metro Detroit comes in very late and is basically all D.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Isnât Kate Brown from Oregon the first?
posted by gucci mane at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by gucci mane at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
MSNBC just called PA-17 (my district) for Lamb (D).
Eat shit, Keith Rothfus.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
Eat shit, Keith Rothfus.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
Iâm in transit but Iâm seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?
posted by Brainy at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Brainy at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018
Tying money to the franchise is a terrible idea.
You misunderstand me, at least I think maybe so..  Citizens can already vote. I just feel that non-citizens subject to our taxation should have a vote too. No taxation without representation is something we used to find somewhat important. And I'd be all in on extending the franchise to underage citizens who are already paying income tax. No reason they shouldn't have a voice in the government taxing their income.
But I'm going off topic, so I'll skip more. I'm just glad to see Florida's odious disenfranchisement of convicted felons finally go. That always stuck in my craw when I used to sign people up to vote down there.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
You misunderstand me, at least I think maybe so..  Citizens can already vote. I just feel that non-citizens subject to our taxation should have a vote too. No taxation without representation is something we used to find somewhat important. And I'd be all in on extending the franchise to underage citizens who are already paying income tax. No reason they shouldn't have a voice in the government taxing their income.
But I'm going off topic, so I'll skip more. I'm just glad to see Florida's odious disenfranchisement of convicted felons finally go. That always stuck in my craw when I used to sign people up to vote down there.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Kate Brown is bisexual.
posted by Sauce Trough at 6:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Sauce Trough at 6:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
It's a small - a very small and local - thing, but I'm elated that it appears highly likely that the wonderful Emily Gasoi will be representing my D.C. ward on our State Board of Education.
A *huge* amount of PAC money has flowed into this race, and her opponent, bankrolled by the Kochs, Bezos, and other neoliberal education profiteers, pulled out all the stops: impersonating her on local listservs, paying trolls to slander her as a racist on social media and at polls, and harassing her supporters online.
Meanwhile, she ran a determined, issues-based, shoe leather campaign on next to nothing - and won. It really gives me hope that, with hard work and good organization, we can beat these ghouls.
Also, I am looking forward to mocking her stooge opponent when I see him around the neighborhood.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
A *huge* amount of PAC money has flowed into this race, and her opponent, bankrolled by the Kochs, Bezos, and other neoliberal education profiteers, pulled out all the stops: impersonating her on local listservs, paying trolls to slander her as a racist on social media and at polls, and harassing her supporters online.
Meanwhile, she ran a determined, issues-based, shoe leather campaign on next to nothing - and won. It really gives me hope that, with hard work and good organization, we can beat these ghouls.
Also, I am looking forward to mocking her stooge opponent when I see him around the neighborhood.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
Iâm in transit but Iâm seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?
Yup, it's on their home page.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018
Yup, it's on their home page.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018
NBC News projects Jared Polis (D) will win Colorado and become the first openly gay governor ever elected
My buddy lives in Colorado and his wife is an evangelical Trump supporter who thinks black kids wouldn't get killed if they "didn't do crimes" and that gay people live a "sinful lifestyle" so this... this is awesome. I would gloat if she was someone I still talked to.
posted by bondcliff at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
My buddy lives in Colorado and his wife is an evangelical Trump supporter who thinks black kids wouldn't get killed if they "didn't do crimes" and that gay people live a "sinful lifestyle" so this... this is awesome. I would gloat if she was someone I still talked to.
posted by bondcliff at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
I know people are celebrating Amendment 4 in FL but what makes you think the FL legislature can't override this?
It's an amendment to the state constitution. Ballotpedia on Florida Amendment 4.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
It's an amendment to the state constitution. Ballotpedia on Florida Amendment 4.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Iâm in transit but Iâm seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?Tweeted by Chad Pergram, who covers Congress for Fox News. Who the fuck knows what it means, though. I don't think that Fox is any better at predicting the future than anyone else.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:41 PM on November 6, 2018
Conor Lamb won in PA, so that's a Dem pickup.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Yup, it's on their home page.
This is like the opposite of 2012 where someone (Chaney?) ran downstairs to call the pollsters liars for saying Obama had won Ohio.
posted by sideshow at 6:42 PM on November 6, 2018
This is like the opposite of 2012 where someone (Chaney?) ran downstairs to call the pollsters liars for saying Obama had won Ohio.
posted by sideshow at 6:42 PM on November 6, 2018
Jared Polis will win the gubernatorial race in Colorado.
Well okay now a governor owns original artwork by my friends I helped design.
Huh.
posted by The Whelk at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Well okay now a governor owns original artwork by my friends I helped design.
Huh.
posted by The Whelk at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Democrats were never expected to take the Senate, so that's fine. It was a very bad map for Democrats, and the only reason it was in play was because of anger at the polls. (The fact that Beto is close to Cruz at all is fantastic, and also unexpected.) The House is gerrymandered against Democrats, but taking the House is what matters. Doesn't matter if it's close. If Democrats get even a slim majority, they get control of the committees and start launching two years' worth of investigations. There's been open, obvious disenfranchisement going on during this election, and the Republicans deserve to pay for that, but that takes governors, and that takes the House.
posted by Merus at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
posted by Merus at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
I know this sounds cynical (ha), but any chance the Fox News call is a Dem turnout suppressant for the West Coast?
posted by tarshish bound at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by tarshish bound at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Metro Detroit comes in very late and is basically all D.
Yet haven't the same poll results called the Gov race for Whitmer?
I sure hope y'all are right but given what happened in 2016 and what happened today in Detroit I'm not sanguine.
posted by Preserver at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018
Yet haven't the same poll results called the Gov race for Whitmer?
I sure hope y'all are right but given what happened in 2016 and what happened today in Detroit I'm not sanguine.
posted by Preserver at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018
So on the local level my guys Colin Allred, Nathan Johnson, John Creuzot and John Turner are pulling ahead. These are all amazing candidates and I'm seeing a localish blue wave, if people are feeling gutted. The Local Blue Wave is fucking happening!!!!!
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Iâm in transit but Iâm seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?
Yup, it's on their home page.
Don't believe it.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yup, it's on their home page.
Don't believe it.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Iâm in transit but Iâm seeing an extremely large and varied number of tweets that Fox is calling control of the house to the Dems? Can anybody confirm?
Not "calling," but they have their own needle (of course they do) and it's currently hovering between 82% and 84% chance Dems take the House, with Senate control holding steady at 68% chance for the GOP. They purport to explain their "methodology" here but it's just actually just a basic explainer on probability. (On edit: I'd assume this is entirely intended to spur turnout in races where polls are still open.)
posted by halation at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018
Not "calling," but they have their own needle (of course they do) and it's currently hovering between 82% and 84% chance Dems take the House, with Senate control holding steady at 68% chance for the GOP. They purport to explain their "methodology" here but it's just actually just a basic explainer on probability. (On edit: I'd assume this is entirely intended to spur turnout in races where polls are still open.)
posted by halation at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018
You all realize that this is the deadest the megathread has been in, like, over two years?
Itâs like *crickets* over there.
posted by darkstar at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Itâs like *crickets* over there.
posted by darkstar at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Gisele Fetterman, wife of the newly elected Lt. Gov. of PA just tweeted:
"Pennsylvania, your second lady is a formerly undocumented immigrant. â¤ď¸Thank you."
posted by mcduff at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
"Pennsylvania, your second lady is a formerly undocumented immigrant. â¤ď¸Thank you."
posted by mcduff at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
Fox calling house for D's to depress the West coast vote no doubt.
posted by Mei's lost sandal at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Mei's lost sandal at 6:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Whoops. that ended in the wrong thread. I moved. Sorry. Election day. Arrrggghh.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
If Democrats get even a slim majority, they get control of the committees and start launching two years' worth of investigations
Yeah, remember the Bengazi hearings? Imaging that but instead of imaginary crimes, they are investigating real crimes,
posted by sideshow at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
Yeah, remember the Bengazi hearings? Imaging that but instead of imaginary crimes, they are investigating real crimes,
posted by sideshow at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
I wonder if what we are seeing is partly an artefact of the Big Sort in action. I wonder how many well-educated people (who now lean Democratic) are leaving poorer Midwestern states with not-so-good weather, like Indiana, and moving to warmer climates with more economic opportunity, like Texas.
So if Indiana's remaining voters are growing older, whiter, and less educated, and Mike Braun didn't pop his mouth off too badly, well, there goes a Democratic Senate seat.
The Big Sort is really exposing the creakiness in America's electoral system, in particular the Senate. The "deplorables" are turning out in droves, but they always do. The difference is now Democrats are actually voting in a midterm election - think of what a bloodbath it would be if we didn't?
And, P.S.: I'm glad Conor Lamb won. And if Abigail Spanberger can defeat Dave Brat, I will laugh and laugh and drink a mug of Tea Party tears.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
So if Indiana's remaining voters are growing older, whiter, and less educated, and Mike Braun didn't pop his mouth off too badly, well, there goes a Democratic Senate seat.
The Big Sort is really exposing the creakiness in America's electoral system, in particular the Senate. The "deplorables" are turning out in droves, but they always do. The difference is now Democrats are actually voting in a midterm election - think of what a bloodbath it would be if we didn't?
And, P.S.: I'm glad Conor Lamb won. And if Abigail Spanberger can defeat Dave Brat, I will laugh and laugh and drink a mug of Tea Party tears.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
The NYT needle is now up. It, um, is exceedingly better for my blood pressure than the 538 model. Like, how can these be about the same election?
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
With 11% reporting, all the MN state-wide positions are showing that Dems are ahead 60-65% to 30-35% for their Republican opponents. This is particularly good news for the governorship and for the AG position. Say what you will about Keith Ellison, but his opponent has reportedly been a gay-bashing, feminazi-calling, Rush Limbaugh-quoting ethically challenged bastard since the 8th grade. Heâs been recorded at a fundraiser saying that if he was elected, heâd fire all the Democratic attorneys, and also had a âsecretâ (but easily traceable) partisan blog in direct violation of the ethics requirements during his position as a clerk of the Supreme Court. Even his former BOSS did a PSA telling people not to vote for him.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Rejoice, America, for Bob Menendez has won his Senate Race in New Jersey.
He is a Democrat.
posted by Justinian at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
He is a Democrat.
posted by Justinian at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
I know this sounds cynical (ha), but any chance the Fox News call is a Dem turnout suppressant for the West Coast?
YES. Don't believe their lies.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
YES. Don't believe their lies.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
You all realize that this is the deadest the megathread has been in, like, over two years?
Itâs like *crickets* over there.
Existential dread is biting my tongue
posted by litleozy at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Itâs like *crickets* over there.
Existential dread is biting my tongue
posted by litleozy at 6:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
The senate was likely to retain its GOP. But, importantly, the House looks likely to go Dem (lots of investigations) and Governors are important re gerrymandering, so an increase in Dem governors is critical for House races in 2020
posted by vicusofrecirculation at 6:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by vicusofrecirculation at 6:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Also: petty opinion, but I badly do not want Beto to run for President in 2020, and if he seriously tries I think a lot of people will be disappointed. He ran so strongly on a campaign of looking after Texans and governing for his constituents and not immediately abandoning them for national ambitions like Cruz did that if he allows himself to be put forth as a serious Presidential candidate, I think many Texans will feel very betrayed.
So on the local level my guys
And my gals Jana Lynn Sanchez and Lizzie Fletcher, too! The Texas House races actually look pretty... encouraging?
posted by sciatrix at 6:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
So on the local level my guys
And my gals Jana Lynn Sanchez and Lizzie Fletcher, too! The Texas House races actually look pretty... encouraging?
posted by sciatrix at 6:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
I don't think there was much doubt considering it's an incredibly blue district, but Ilhan Omar is going to DC.
posted by ckape at 6:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by ckape at 6:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Curbelo has conceded. Democrats flip FL-26
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
Even better in MN is I just saw that Hutch is leading Stanek in the sheriff's race? If Hutch wins, that's a huge victory.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by triggerfinger at 6:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Harry Enten: Based on internal modeling and returns, I believe is now "likely" (highest category I'll go) that Democrats will take back the House.
I think we can all agree that the 538 needle is history's greatest monster and must be destroyed.
Everybody I'm seeing is basically calling the House for Democrats now. Fox, CNN, a few others.
posted by Justinian at 6:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I think we can all agree that the 538 needle is history's greatest monster and must be destroyed.
Everybody I'm seeing is basically calling the House for Democrats now. Fox, CNN, a few others.
posted by Justinian at 6:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
/me exhales for the first time in 3 hours.
posted by notyou at 6:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by notyou at 6:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Existential dread is biting my tongue
posted by litleozy at 21:46 on November 6 [+] [!]
Get a room, you two.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by litleozy at 21:46 on November 6 [+] [!]
Get a room, you two.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Beto has said he will not run for president in 2020 "completely ruling it out", win or lose the senate race.
posted by smcameron at 6:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by smcameron at 6:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Can I just say EAT SHIT DAVE BRAT. Please do whatever you need to do, Chesterfield Co but omg I'm biting my nails and bouncing up and down.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
@AP_Politics: BREAKING: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell wins election to U.S. House in Florida's 26th congressional district. #APracecall at 9:47 p.m. EST.
That's a win over Curbelo (R) and a super great pickup of a tossup seat!
posted by zachlipton at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
That's a win over Curbelo (R) and a super great pickup of a tossup seat!
posted by zachlipton at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I don't think there was much doubt considering it's an incredibly blue district, but Ilhan Omar is going to DC.Indeed.
posted by scrump at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Dems are 5-for-5 in the Clinton-won districts called so far, and they have enough of those to take the House without flipping any Trumpy districts. That doesn't mean they'll win them all, but MSNBC has 80% for a D takeover.
Nates Silver and Cohn are among the first to the Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Gulags for their deceptive, anxiety-inducing chartoonery.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Nates Silver and Cohn are among the first to the Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Gulags for their deceptive, anxiety-inducing chartoonery.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I think we can all agree that the 538 needle is history's greatest monster and must be destroyed.
Seriously. I mean, for a couple of minutes there, I thought I was going to have another comment entry to make in the Broken Heart Syndrome thread.
Meanwhile, polls here in AZ closed 50 minutes ago at 7pm, and we still gotta wait 10 more minutes for the first results to be posted on the stateâs official site.
Iâm feeling like Bender: âLetâs GO ALREADAYYY!!!â
posted by darkstar at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Seriously. I mean, for a couple of minutes there, I thought I was going to have another comment entry to make in the Broken Heart Syndrome thread.
Meanwhile, polls here in AZ closed 50 minutes ago at 7pm, and we still gotta wait 10 more minutes for the first results to be posted on the stateâs official site.
Iâm feeling like Bender: âLetâs GO ALREADAYYY!!!â
posted by darkstar at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Omar's a-coming
posted by Marticus at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 6:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
I'd like to thank Justinian for bringing the Justinian's Cool-headed Perspective Level version of the JCPL this thread.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 6:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
Sharice Davids (D) makes it 6-for-6 in Clinton 2018 district pickups, winning KS-03.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 6:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
538: According to CNN, North Carolina is a âyesâ on its voter ID measure, which would amend the stateâs constitution to require voters to provide photo ID when they vote in person. The legislature passed a similar requirement back in 2013, but it was overturned by the courts, saying it targeted black voters with âalmost surgical precision.â
posted by snortasprocket at 6:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by snortasprocket at 6:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
And NBC calls a pickup for KS-03 for Davids (D) over Yoder (R-Incumbant).
That was predicted likely D, but also another sign of Ds showing strength in these suburban districts. This would make Davids the Lesbian Native American Congresswoman (indeed, the first Native American woman period; Deb Haaland of NM will likely join her in that honor).
posted by zachlipton at 6:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
That was predicted likely D, but also another sign of Ds showing strength in these suburban districts. This would make Davids the Lesbian Native American Congresswoman (indeed, the first Native American woman period; Deb Haaland of NM will likely join her in that honor).
posted by zachlipton at 6:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
DSA endorsed candidates are doing well but those were mostly primary fights.
posted by The Whelk at 6:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 6:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
It looks like Brindisi NY22 has 63% with 51 of 565 (9%) precincts reporting over the horrific Claudia Tenney (37%). This is huge! Sarah Saunders, little Trump and bit Trump all were here in the past month!
posted by bluesky43 at 6:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 6:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Mikie Sherrill (D) flips a 49%-48% Trump district, defeating Jay Webber in NJ-11.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 6:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Yeah, remember the Benghazi hearings? Imaging that but instead of imaginary crimes, they are investigating real crimes
If the Democratic Party wins the House, Maxine Waters, as the most senior member of the Financial Services Committee, can request, and then publish, Trump's tax returns.
And that's before they hold any goddamn hearings
posted by Merus at 6:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [85 favorites]
If the Democratic Party wins the House, Maxine Waters, as the most senior member of the Financial Services Committee, can request, and then publish, Trump's tax returns.
And that's before they hold any goddamn hearings
posted by Merus at 6:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [85 favorites]
NBC calling Kansas-GOV for Kelly (D) over Kobah (R)!
I am partying!
posted by zachlipton at 6:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [72 favorites]
I am partying!
posted by zachlipton at 6:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [72 favorites]
I don't think there was much doubt considering it's an incredibly blue district, but Ilhan Omar is going to DC.
Today at my polling place (a middle school), they brought some of the kids at the school in to watch us work and ask questions. A Somali girl, maybe 12 years old, came up to our table and shyly asked "What is Ilhan Omar running for?" and it made my heart swell to know that this little girl has someone she can look at in Congress, someone like her. Representation really does matter.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [45 favorites]
Today at my polling place (a middle school), they brought some of the kids at the school in to watch us work and ask questions. A Somali girl, maybe 12 years old, came up to our table and shyly asked "What is Ilhan Omar running for?" and it made my heart swell to know that this little girl has someone she can look at in Congress, someone like her. Representation really does matter.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [45 favorites]
Kris Kobach LOST. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
posted by RedShrek at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
posted by RedShrek at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
KOBACH DOWN!!!
posted by localhuman at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by localhuman at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Nate Cohn: Tex Cruz is on track for a comfortable victory in Texas, according to our estimates, even though Beto leads in the reported vote.
This is not a projection. But Beto win outside of MOE
We're going to need better performances in MT, AZ and NV to avoid a real downside scenario in the Senate.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
This is not a projection. But Beto win outside of MOE
We're going to need better performances in MT, AZ and NV to avoid a real downside scenario in the Senate.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Laura Kelly (D) defeats racist "voter fraud" fraudster Kris Kobach in KS-Gov.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Meanwhile, polls here in AZ closed 50 minutes ago at 7pm, and we still gotta wait 10 more minutes for the first results to be posted on the stateâs official site.
Maricopa County doesn't count mail ballots until tomorrow I think, could be a while for Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Maricopa County doesn't count mail ballots until tomorrow I think, could be a while for Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I have been trying to check back every half hour, because my blood pressure is not up to tonight, but Iowa polls just closed, and I am so, so nervous.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
We're going to need better performances in MT, AZ and NV to avoid a real downside scenario in the Senate.
I absolutely hope this happens.
But let's be clear; the structural disadvantage faced by Democrats in the Senate means that eventually this is something we'll have to face up to. It is very unlikely we can keep these red state seats forever and we need a plan for that.
posted by Justinian at 7:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I absolutely hope this happens.
But let's be clear; the structural disadvantage faced by Democrats in the Senate means that eventually this is something we'll have to face up to. It is very unlikely we can keep these red state seats forever and we need a plan for that.
posted by Justinian at 7:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Politico says Dems have picked up MN-03.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Elaine Luria (D) picks up VA-02 in another narrowly Trumpy district.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Kobach and Kim Davis losing are two very bright examples of the arc of the moral universe trying its damndest to bend, yâall.
posted by darkstar at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by darkstar at 7:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
NBC is calling VA-2 as a Dem pickup for Luria (D) over Taylor (R-incumbent).
That's another suburban district where Dems over-performed the polls.
Wait what? NY-11 on Staten Island (a Trump +10 district!) was just a Dem Pickup (per NBC) for Max Rose (D) over Dan Donovan (R-incumbant)
posted by zachlipton at 7:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
That's another suburban district where Dems over-performed the polls.
Wait what? NY-11 on Staten Island (a Trump +10 district!) was just a Dem Pickup (per NBC) for Max Rose (D) over Dan Donovan (R-incumbant)
posted by zachlipton at 7:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
That's a net gain of 11 seats (+12, -1) for Democrats.
posted by zachlipton at 7:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 7:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
That NY-11 result is bonkers.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Yesss, the bar just erupted in cheers for Max Rose.
posted by ferret branca at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by ferret branca at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Republicans losing Staten Island would be a major shift. The country is polarizing faster than I thought possible!
posted by Justinian at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Maricopa County doesn't count mail ballots until tomorrow I think, could be a while for Senate
They have actually probably been counting them all day today. 80% or so of the vote on AZ is early. Pima counts early ballots during Election Day.
posted by azpenguin at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
They have actually probably been counting them all day today. 80% or so of the vote on AZ is early. Pima counts early ballots during Election Day.
posted by azpenguin at 7:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Why is Fox News calling it a Dem House win so soon? Nobody else is even close to calling it. This smacks of some sort of attempt at influencing turnout at polls that are still open in the west.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 7:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 7:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Also, no one except that rando tweeter is confirming the outcome of the Michigan governor's race, so I'm not sure what to think.
AP and WAPO just confirmed a Whitmer (D) win.
posted by Preserver at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
AP and WAPO just confirmed a Whitmer (D) win.
posted by Preserver at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Matt Ford posted "Attorney General Kris Kobach" and I threw up in my mouth.
posted by RedShrek at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by RedShrek at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
The other big gruff guy, Ojeda [D], has lost WV-03.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018
My friend is on his way to flipping a PA-state seat! He lost in 2016 but ran again, and I am so proud of him!
What the fuck is going on with NJ-03? Andy Kim (D-challenger) was polling so much closer than the returns look now? Are all the blue votes stuck in Burlington?
posted by gladly at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
What the fuck is going on with NJ-03? Andy Kim (D-challenger) was polling so much closer than the returns look now? Are all the blue votes stuck in Burlington?
posted by gladly at 7:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Indeed they (Maricopa) have been doing some counting already. You can actually watch live feeds of people opening and processing the ballots. (I confess I burned a good half-hour like that this morning.)
posted by darkstar at 7:07 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by darkstar at 7:07 PM on November 6, 2018
Mary Ellen Carter: NYT has >95% change of Dems winning the House, so Fox doesn't seem completely bonkers.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:07 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:07 PM on November 6, 2018
This smacks of some sort of attempt at influencing turnout at polls that are still open in the west.
That's exactly what it is.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
That's exactly what it is.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Rachel Rollins, a progressive, is easily winning election for district attorney in Massachusetts's Suffolk County (Boston and three smaller suburbs). Her key election was really the September primary, where she beat out several other candidates, including an assistant DA heavily backed by police officers.
posted by adamg at 7:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by adamg at 7:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Also, check this very thread from about an hour ago to see how sure everyone was that the Republicans were going to keep the house.
posted by sideshow at 7:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by sideshow at 7:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
NBC calling ND-Sen for Cramer (R) over Heitkamp (D-Incumbant)
The Senate is looking pretty awful. Also, voter suppression of Native Americans is the story of this election.
posted by zachlipton at 7:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
The Senate is looking pretty awful. Also, voter suppression of Native Americans is the story of this election.
posted by zachlipton at 7:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Why is Fox News calling it a Dem House win so soon? Nobody else is even close to calling it.
FWIW, MSNBC is giving the probability as 95%. But since Sarah Sanders basically conceded the House on Fox News I am tempted to call shenanigans.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
FWIW, MSNBC is giving the probability as 95%. But since Sarah Sanders basically conceded the House on Fox News I am tempted to call shenanigans.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I have been saying for years in the face of my friends' despair, that gerrymandering "only works until it doesn't" as a means to keeping theirâand myâhope up.
If the House, and more importantly all these State offices flip, I can finally feel a tiny bit of vindication for my resolute optimism in the face of all evidence.  That will be nice, if so   I'm tired of being the voice of hope; I'm inherently pessimistic but refused to give in to it out of sheer stubbornness.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 7:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
If the House, and more importantly all these State offices flip, I can finally feel a tiny bit of vindication for my resolute optimism in the face of all evidence.  That will be nice, if so   I'm tired of being the voice of hope; I'm inherently pessimistic but refused to give in to it out of sheer stubbornness.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 7:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I mean...it doesn't seem like a good attempt at influencing polls against Dems. Anyone who actually watches/trusts Fox is probably voting for Republicans anyway, so in this case wouldn't calling it for Dems depress Republican turnout?
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
How does the Senate ever get fixed? When you consider that KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, AR and SC combined is equal to the population and nearly the same land area as CA, but gets 14 senators vs 2. The balance is completely out of whack, and is baked in, short of redrawing state lines. What steps can be taken that all sides would agree to?
posted by Mister Fabulous at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by Mister Fabulous at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Wow, if the results turn out how 538 and NYT are currently projecting, I'm going to be really interested to hear what went wrong with 538's live tracker earlier in the evening. I suppose I can savor the fact that my previous post spanned the 60 seconds it projected Dems at less than 50% to win the House, but it's still a weird glitch that Silver will have to explain.
posted by chortly at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by chortly at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Medicaid expansion in NE!
posted by jason_steakums at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 7:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
The Senate results for Donnelly and now Heitkamp seem to indicate that (quelle surprise) misogyny is alive and well in the US. Rome wasn't built in a day, and clearly we've got our work cut out for us. Like someone said upthread, we weren't going to reverse the tide of shit in just 18 months.
posted by scrump at 7:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by scrump at 7:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
I can't get cspan.org to load and made the mistake of trying the CBS livestream only to come right in on the anchors sharing a collegial chuckle with Lindsey Graham. NOTHANKU, NEXT
posted by halation at 7:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by halation at 7:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Also, check this very thread from about an hour ago to see how sure everyone was that the Republicans were going to keep the house.
It's almost like a recent election where everyone thought it was in the bag turned bad quick and got worse.
posted by avalonian at 7:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
It's almost like a recent election where everyone thought it was in the bag turned bad quick and got worse.
posted by avalonian at 7:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
How does the Senate ever get fixed? When you consider that KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, AR and SC combined is equal to the population and nearly the same land area as CA, but gets 14 senators vs 2. The balance is completely out of whack, and is baked in, short of redrawing state lines. What steps can be taken that all sides would agree to?
Nothing that all sides would agree to, but statehood for DC and Puerto Rico would help both places and probably help Democrats, too. That doesn't come close to making up for all the empty red states...but GA, TN, and KY are not as dead-sure Republican as others. (If it makes you feel slightly better...)
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Nothing that all sides would agree to, but statehood for DC and Puerto Rico would help both places and probably help Democrats, too. That doesn't come close to making up for all the empty red states...but GA, TN, and KY are not as dead-sure Republican as others. (If it makes you feel slightly better...)
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
MN-3:Dean Phillips (D) over incumbent Erik Paulsen.
(I met Congressman-Elect Phillips a number of years ago; he impressed me at the time as a smart and compassionate individual. Erik Paulsen has never struck me as either of those things.)
posted by nickmark at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
(I met Congressman-Elect Phillips a number of years ago; he impressed me at the time as a smart and compassionate individual. Erik Paulsen has never struck me as either of those things.)
posted by nickmark at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
NBC calling TX-SEN for Cruz (R-incumbent) over O'Rourke (D). Question is whether his outstanding showing makes a difference in some of the Texas House races, including some great state rep pickups that are looking good.
posted by zachlipton at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Women seem to be winning on the House level, and governorships, and local races. Just the Senate - to wit, Senate seats where old white people hold disproportionate power - is tilting the other way.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
NBC is calling Texas for Ted Cruz. I'm sadder than I thought I'd be since I tried to keep my expectations in check. Beto did the lord's work building up a Democratic apparatus in Texas that we can hope pays off in the long run. (And among House races now.)
posted by Justinian at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
MN-03 has been called for Dean Phillips - D over incumbent and Erik Paulsen. Phillips ran a great campaign that a lot of the local design and advertising community worked on. Best known for his Sasquatch ads and having a fishing ice house.
posted by misterpatrick at 7:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by misterpatrick at 7:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Lori Trahan (D) wins in Massachusetts' 3rd District. No surprise, 538 had it at 99% D. But still.
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:14 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:14 PM on November 6, 2018
Also, check this very thread from about an hour ago to see how sure everyone was that the Republicans were going to keep the house.
I only allow myself one phase of panic during an election and so will remain convinced the House is lost until the curtain falls.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I only allow myself one phase of panic during an election and so will remain convinced the House is lost until the curtain falls.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
The really important thing is to get more Democratic governorships. There was a bunch of analysis a while back about Republican governors enabling a Republican federal majority to pass Constitutional amendments with enough governors to ratify them, and that wonât happen if we take and hold those seats. Likewise it will be important for a lot of judicial positions at the state level.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 7:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
If Fox News' early call for the House Democrats is intended to depress late-in-the-day turnout in the West, don't they realize who their prime audience is? If anything, it'll depress Republican voters and turn a couple close races blue... thanks, Fox.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
@Autumnheart: thank you for that. Makes me feel a bit better.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:17 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:17 PM on November 6, 2018
If Beto loses and he isnât going to run for President, where does he steer his momentum?
posted by jasondigitized at 7:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 7:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Colin Allred (D) beats Pete Sessions (R) in TX-32. (NBC)
posted by chris24 at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Even if that obnoxious fucker Cruz is in fact re-elected, god bless Beto O'Rourke for waking up progressive Texas. That is an *astonishing* amount of momentum in a very short time and I hope to god that TX keeps it going.
posted by Sublimity at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
posted by Sublimity at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [56 favorites]
Aaannnd Allred (D) just defeated billion-term incumbent Pete Sessions (R). THANKS BETO.
posted by Justinian at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
> Colin Allred (D) beats Pete Sessions in TX-32.
No way! Thanks, Beto...
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
No way! Thanks, Beto...
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
TX-32: Pete Sessions (11 term!!! R-incumbent) falls to Colin Allred (D) per NBC's call. That was a tossup to leans D for the ratings, Clinton +2 district.
BETO'S REVENGE is alive in Texas!
posted by zachlipton at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
BETO'S REVENGE is alive in Texas!
posted by zachlipton at 7:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
I'd like an overview of the gubernatorial and statehouse races, and of the anti-gerrymandering initiatives. These three things in combination will make a big difference for the 2020 census redistricting and give us a hint of where things are going.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Beto wasn't ever going to win this year. But this should be a huge wakeup call to Democrats: they can win in Texas, but it's going to require serious, sustained investment. So if you're a Dem in Texas, don't despair. This is only the beginning. All the work is going to pay off over time.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [59 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [59 favorites]
Yes, the governorships and local races are damn important. As Amanda Litman noted in her tweet, the R's have been doing this for years while we Dems have been asleep at the switch. If we get our Blue Wave after all it's going to be at the local level, and will build up our base and our bench.
And it looks like women, POC and LGBT candidates are gaining in local races and governorships. If we want a diverse bench, that's just what we need.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
And it looks like women, POC and LGBT candidates are gaining in local races and governorships. If we want a diverse bench, that's just what we need.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Colin Allred (D) beats Pete Sessions in TX-32. (NBC)
That's a spicy meatball!
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
That's a spicy meatball!
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Ivan Fyodorovich: "I'd like an overview of the gubernatorial and statehouse races, and of the anti-gerrymandering initiatives. These three things in combination will make a big difference for the 2020 census redistricting and give us a hint of where things are going."
I will have a recap on everything!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
I will have a recap on everything!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
NBC is calling Texas for Ted Cruz. I'm sadder than I thought I'd be since I tried to keep my expectations in check. Beto did the lord's work building up a Democratic apparatus in Texas that we can hope pays off in the long run. (And among House races now.)
I have very little patience for late-date repentant Republicans, but I'm afraid Rick Wilson called this one right: any other Democrat would've lost by more, and Beto only polled so close because he was an amazing candidate. (FWIW he also called FL's Bill Nelson useless and warned that people were underrating how good Rick Scott is at local politicking.)
...here's hoping that we have a couple decades worth of incredible Democratic candidates, it feels like we're going to need that to undo all the damage that Republicans are doing right now.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I have very little patience for late-date repentant Republicans, but I'm afraid Rick Wilson called this one right: any other Democrat would've lost by more, and Beto only polled so close because he was an amazing candidate. (FWIW he also called FL's Bill Nelson useless and warned that people were underrating how good Rick Scott is at local politicking.)
...here's hoping that we have a couple decades worth of incredible Democratic candidates, it feels like we're going to need that to undo all the damage that Republicans are doing right now.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
MI-11: NBC calls it for Stevens (D) over Epstein (R) in this open seat. This was reasonably likely, but Epstein is the one who invited the defrocked fake Rabbi to campaign for her alongside Pence, so I'm rather pleased she's not going to Congress.
posted by zachlipton at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
NBC just joined Fox and called the House for Ds.
posted by chris24 at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
The Senate results for Donnelly and now Heitkamp seem to indicate that (quelle surprise) misogyny is alive and well in the US.
Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018
Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018
Though let's give credit to Colin Allred (D). You need both an energized Democratic apparatus (BETO) and a good candidate working his ass off. So Thanks Colin!
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Matt Ford posted "Attorney General Kris Kobach" and I threw up in my mouth.
Thatâd be a fun confirmation hearing.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018
Thatâd be a fun confirmation hearing.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018
MSNBC calls the House for Democrats.
Cake for everyone!
posted by tonycpsu at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Cake for everyone!
posted by tonycpsu at 7:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Itâs going to be especially important if we want to combat voter suppression and gerrymandering efforts for 2020. Itâs gonna get a lot damn harder for the GOP to pull shenanigans when they donât get to influence the bench.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Autumnheart at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
AND NBC IS CALLING THE HOUSE FOR THE DEMOCRATS, joining Fox News's early call. And Republicans will hold the Senate, naturally.
posted by zachlipton at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Spanberger (VA7) up by 1800 votes with only 3 Chesterfield districts out. Starting to get excited that I'll be represented by a real human being in Congress.
posted by COD at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by COD at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
MSNBC called for Dem House control.
Bring on the Hearings!
posted by leotrotsky at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Bring on the Hearings!
posted by leotrotsky at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
It looks like Gillum is going to lose the FL gov. race by a point or so as the last few counts come in. This place, I tell ya...
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by RolandOfEld at 7:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yes, the governorships and local races are damn important. As Amanda Litman noted in her tweet, the R's have been doing this for years while we Dems have been asleep at the switch. If we get our Blue Wave after all it's going to be at the local level, and will build up our base and our bench.
Exactly. People, including here on MeFi, talk about Republican gerrymandering like it's a basic fact of the universe, but it's not. It's the result of Democratic incompetence and apathy. It's baffling that the Dems have basically ceded local races to the Republicans for decades.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
Exactly. People, including here on MeFi, talk about Republican gerrymandering like it's a basic fact of the universe, but it's not. It's the result of Democratic incompetence and apathy. It's baffling that the Dems have basically ceded local races to the Republicans for decades.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
It is very unlikely we can keep these red state seats forever and we need a plan for that.
1) Automatic nationwide voter registration.
2) Ability to vote early or by mail - voter's choice - for any election involving a national position, including Senators and Representatives.
3) Sunshine laws for Congress - all rough drafts of legislation released to the public (possibly after the vote); live cameras in every room, all the time (you work for the public; no privacy on the job); regular depositions under oaths for every Senator and Representative, stating whether they read the legislation on which they voted.
4) Blue wave anti-gerrymandering: Set up third-party boards to divide the state, and require that they do so without voting data of the residents - they can use other demographic features, but they can't know the R/D split when deciding on districts. Ideally, push to make this into constitutional amendments, but that's likely outside of the scope of a single wave.
5) Campaign Integrity Laws: if your campaign is found to have broken election laws, you get thrown out of your seat and the runner-up immediately gets put in your place. If they're not available, a special election is held as normal.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
1) Automatic nationwide voter registration.
2) Ability to vote early or by mail - voter's choice - for any election involving a national position, including Senators and Representatives.
3) Sunshine laws for Congress - all rough drafts of legislation released to the public (possibly after the vote); live cameras in every room, all the time (you work for the public; no privacy on the job); regular depositions under oaths for every Senator and Representative, stating whether they read the legislation on which they voted.
4) Blue wave anti-gerrymandering: Set up third-party boards to divide the state, and require that they do so without voting data of the residents - they can use other demographic features, but they can't know the R/D split when deciding on districts. Ideally, push to make this into constitutional amendments, but that's likely outside of the scope of a single wave.
5) Campaign Integrity Laws: if your campaign is found to have broken election laws, you get thrown out of your seat and the runner-up immediately gets put in your place. If they're not available, a special election is held as normal.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
Pritzker (D)'s win in Illinois makes Juliana Stratton the first Black Woman Lt Governor of Illinois.
posted by TwoStride at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
I think it's important to remember that the Republican party has been packing local and state offices for decades. Counteracting that is going to mean putting progressive candidates in office across the board, and that's going to take time. Like others have said, marathon, not sprint, but also: this is going to take more than one election.
posted by scrump at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
posted by scrump at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Texas Senator Cornyn is up in 2020; a worthy consolation prize for Beto to aim for...
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
> "Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny."
Donnelly's vote against Kavanaugh was likely a significant factor in his loss.
posted by kyrademon at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Donnelly's vote against Kavanaugh was likely a significant factor in his loss.
posted by kyrademon at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Cake for everyone!
Cake for some, subpoenas for others!
posted by peeedro at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [77 favorites]
Cake for some, subpoenas for others!
posted by peeedro at 7:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [77 favorites]
The Senate results for Donnelly and now Heitkamp seem to indicate that (quelle surprise) misogyny is alive and well in the US.
Explain please? Donnelly was a man running against another man. As a Hoosier, I absolutely don't need convincing that misogyny is alive and well here in Indiana. Just trying to connect your specific dots.
posted by Rykey at 7:24 PM on November 6, 2018
Explain please? Donnelly was a man running against another man. As a Hoosier, I absolutely don't need convincing that misogyny is alive and well here in Indiana. Just trying to connect your specific dots.
posted by Rykey at 7:24 PM on November 6, 2018
@Nate_Cohn: Kendra Horn up to 95% to win in Oklahoma 5, according to our estimates. Would be a stunner
It's these suburbs that are just outperforming for Democrats. That would be a huge pickup.
posted by zachlipton at 7:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
It's these suburbs that are just outperforming for Democrats. That would be a huge pickup.
posted by zachlipton at 7:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Not sure I follow you on Donnelly's [D-male-IN] loss being a sign of misogyny.
Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. As did Heitkamp. There are strong suggestions that those votes cost them badly.
posted by scrump at 7:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. As did Heitkamp. There are strong suggestions that those votes cost them badly.
posted by scrump at 7:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Beto's still young yet and we'll need strong presidential candidates for years to come, just having him on the bench is great.
Also, the lessons learned from the Beto campaign will be disseminated to other Dem campaigns in red states, like Kander before him. We're building something there.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Also, the lessons learned from the Beto campaign will be disseminated to other Dem campaigns in red states, like Kander before him. We're building something there.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
BBC called Senate for Rs, House for Ds.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:26 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:26 PM on November 6, 2018
"makes Juliana Stratton the first Black Woman Lt Governor of Illinois."
YES AND WE LOVE HER SO MUCH!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
YES AND WE LOVE HER SO MUCH!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Winning local, State and House elections is called building a deep bench. For every 100 local Dems we elect, 10 go on to the state house and of those 10, 3 go to Congress and of those three 1 goes to Senate and x 50 = a lot of candidates to choose from.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [40 favorites]
Portland Press-Herald reporting Jared Golden (D) leading incumbent Bruce Poloquin (R) in Maine's 2nd district. If that holds, New England will not have a single Republican member of Congress.
posted by adamg at 7:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
posted by adamg at 7:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
MSNBC Watch: Rachel Maddow is talking about the importance of having Democratic control of the House re: investigations. she's following us
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Has anyone mentioned that Massachusetts defeated the very bad anti-trans ballot measure?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
Matt Ford posted "Attorney General Kris Kobach" and I threw up in my mouth.
Thatâd be a fun confirmation hearing.
This is the difference between 52 and 55 Republican seats now. Already we're counting on Mitt Romney to block something like this.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Thatâd be a fun confirmation hearing.
This is the difference between 52 and 55 Republican seats now. Already we're counting on Mitt Romney to block something like this.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
@matthewferner: Another BIG criminal justice reform measure looks like it's passing -- Louisiana's amendment that requires an unanimous jury for a felony conviction. The nonunanimous jury rule is a shameful vestige of the stateâs white supremacist roots.
It's up 63-37
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [55 favorites]
It's up 63-37
posted by zachlipton at 7:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [55 favorites]
yeah im watching MSNBC with Maddow talking about Elijah Cummins impending leadership on the oversight committee and texting my cousin who is like "watch CNN are you on an alternate universe" while wolf and tapper blather.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
After watching these senate returns I'd say fascism is alive and well. For me not a big deal. I'm 81. But my family. This does make it a big deal for me. Don't these Trump supporters have any family?
posted by notreally at 7:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
posted by notreally at 7:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
Is there any lesson to learn from the GA governor's race other than that voter suppression works?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
So....right now Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is behind in the polls. But Twitter feedback is torn on this - about half are starting to frost the victory cakes, while half are pointing out that some heavily red districts haven't checked in with their tallies yet.
I'm still kind of marvelling that Staten Island here in NYC went blue - can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I'm still kind of marvelling that Staten Island here in NYC went blue - can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Don't these Trump supporters have any family?
Moloch needs feeding.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Moloch needs feeding.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
> Don't these Trump supporters have any family?
They have the 14 words. thatâs what family means to them.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 7:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
They have the 14 words. thatâs what family means to them.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 7:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
yesss everyone update me on good local ballot initiatives, this is the only thing I can be happy about
I've been swearing off Twitter this week. Realistically, I don't think I can stomach it until next week.
(If Cruz lost, I would've made an exception, obviously.)
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I've been swearing off Twitter this week. Realistically, I don't think I can stomach it until next week.
(If Cruz lost, I would've made an exception, obviously.)
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
NBC's brian williams just said Mario when he meant Andrew Cuomo. the only thing ill enjoy about his easy reelection.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Here in Travis county, 47.33% of registered voters voted early. Total turnout in 2014 was 41.38% (22.25% early).
posted by Tabitha Someday at 7:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Tabitha Someday at 7:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?
His campaign seemed real nervous in the last week, that's all I know, but this is still a toss-up with 58% reporting. Even 538 still has us as neutral white.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:36 PM on November 6, 2018
His campaign seemed real nervous in the last week, that's all I know, but this is still a toss-up with 58% reporting. Even 538 still has us as neutral white.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:36 PM on November 6, 2018
With 33% reporting, Democrats still comfortably ahead for all state-wide seats in MN. Much of out-state has not finished reporting, though, so itâs too early to get cozy.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 7:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Rose's campaign was weird - he was trying real hard to distance himself from national dems and the anti trump movement . . .do what you gotta do i guess, but im skeptical about his long term prospects.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:36 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:36 PM on November 6, 2018
And also endless hand-wringing about if enforcing the rule of law is acceptable. Break out the smelling salts and fainting couches. The pundit class is going to need them.
hey if the people elect someone to high office then the rule of law doesn't apply to that person, this somehow is apparently an agreed-upon thing in 2018
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
hey if the people elect someone to high office then the rule of law doesn't apply to that person, this somehow is apparently an agreed-upon thing in 2018
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
WI results say that with 55% reporting, Walker is down by 34,000 votes or just a hair over 2%.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Autumnheart at 7:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
If Beto loses and he isnât going to run for President, where does he steer his momentum?
Kamala/Beto 2020...
posted by mikelieman at 7:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Kamala/Beto 2020...
posted by mikelieman at 7:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
yesss everyone update me on good local ballot initiatives, this is the only thing I can be happy about
Michigan appears to be on track to handily approve recreational marijuana, independent redistricting, and voting reforms (automatic and same-day registration, no-excuse absentee voting).
posted by Preserver at 7:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Michigan appears to be on track to handily approve recreational marijuana, independent redistricting, and voting reforms (automatic and same-day registration, no-excuse absentee voting).
posted by Preserver at 7:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
If Beto loses and he isnât going to run for President, where does he steer his momentum?
Lieberman 2020!
posted by kirkaracha at 7:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Lieberman 2020!
posted by kirkaracha at 7:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Sean Casten wins in IL-6, another Dem House pickup, and in a district that includes my home town!
posted by Deutscheben at 7:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Deutscheben at 7:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Dane and Milwaukee Counties still have a fair number of precincts that haven't reported yet so I hold onto hope that Evers will keep his lead.
posted by acidnova at 7:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by acidnova at 7:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Anyway Dems are poised to take control of the NY state senate, forcing the crypto-republican, progressive legislation blocking governor to deal with the legislature rather then inventing a fake republican aligned caucus to keep them powerless.
posted by The Whelk at 7:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 7:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
Sean Casten wins in IL-6, another Dem House pickup, and in a district that includes my home town!
Eat it, Roskam!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Eat it, Roskam!
posted by Chrysostom at 7:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
ABC calling VA-7 for Spanberger, but nothing has changed on VA count site for 15 minutes, so nit sure what they are basing that on.
posted by COD at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by COD at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018
Nate Silver speculates that the Bob "bribe me" Menendez at the top of the ticket is hurting NJ House candidates and compares the overperformance of Democrats in New York where Gillibrand is on the ballot instead of Bob "no, really, give me the money" Menendez.
Yes, everyone should have voted for him and they mostly did. But the Democratic Leadership should be taken to task for not pushing him out.
posted by Justinian at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Yes, everyone should have voted for him and they mostly did. But the Democratic Leadership should be taken to task for not pushing him out.
posted by Justinian at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
I suspect part of the point of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings. It's a tactic Republicans have used over and over and the left keeps falling for: make a fake big stink about something obviously ridiculous so that future sincere efforts can be smeared as more of the same. What the left fails to realize over and over is that calling these out as ridiculous and stupid is just what the right wants.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Sangermaine at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Anyway Dems are poised to take control of the NY state senate
yes but when can we launch felder into the sun
posted by poffin boffin at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
yes but when can we launch felder into the sun
posted by poffin boffin at 7:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman
posted by kirkaracha at 7:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 7:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Empress, we're over here looking at the Wisconsin map. Most of Waukesha is in and there's quite a lot of Dane county still uncounted (and our turnout here was off the charts). I'm cautiously optimistic.
posted by gerstle at 7:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by gerstle at 7:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I suspect part of the point of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings.
Thatâs very clever, but too clever for this actual world. It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.
posted by argybarg at 7:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [63 favorites]
Thatâs very clever, but too clever for this actual world. It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.
posted by argybarg at 7:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [63 favorites]
With 97% of precincts reporting, the (MN) Hennepin County Sheriff race is a nail-biter. Dave Hutch is at 50% while racist xenophobe incumbent Rich Stanek is at 49%. Something like 5,500 votes difference between the two.
posted by nickmark at 7:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by nickmark at 7:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman
OK maybe it's being so damn tipsy from all these Dark and Stormy's, but I legitimately laughed out loud at that.
THANK YOU, I needed that. That is such a better headline.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 7:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
OK maybe it's being so damn tipsy from all these Dark and Stormy's, but I legitimately laughed out loud at that.
THANK YOU, I needed that. That is such a better headline.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 7:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
can someone more local to Wisconsin weigh in on Mr. Walker?
Walker was one of the GOP politicians that busted out the "I have $RELATIVE with $DISEASE, of course I care about pre-existing conditions" and FB friends seemed to be taking it strangely seriously! I was playing debunking-whack-a-mole with that one.
Evers is just the sort of boring evidence-based thinker that I like, but apparently that sort of thing isn't super electable these days...? Also he's waffled a bit on taxation and the Foxconn deal and that may have hurt him.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Walker was one of the GOP politicians that busted out the "I have $RELATIVE with $DISEASE, of course I care about pre-existing conditions" and FB friends seemed to be taking it strangely seriously! I was playing debunking-whack-a-mole with that one.
Evers is just the sort of boring evidence-based thinker that I like, but apparently that sort of thing isn't super electable these days...? Also he's waffled a bit on taxation and the Foxconn deal and that may have hurt him.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Texas Senator Cornyn is up in 2020; a worthy consolation prize for Beto to aim for...
Not gonna do it, same reason he won't run for President. He wants to raise his kids. He's said so, no uncertain terms.
posted by scalefree at 7:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Not gonna do it, same reason he won't run for President. He wants to raise his kids. He's said so, no uncertain terms.
posted by scalefree at 7:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.
I'm cool with a couple of years of Democrats lining up to be seen yelling at Brett Kavanaugh. In the House hearings, *every* witness is going to be heard, and Kavanaugh is going to be cross-examined under oath.
posted by mikelieman at 7:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I'm cool with a couple of years of Democrats lining up to be seen yelling at Brett Kavanaugh. In the House hearings, *every* witness is going to be heard, and Kavanaugh is going to be cross-examined under oath.
posted by mikelieman at 7:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman
If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
I suspect part of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings. It's a tactic Republicans have used over and over and the left keeps falling for: make a fake big stink about something obviously ridiculous so that future sincere efforts can be smeared as more of the same. What the left fails to realize over and over is that calling these out as ridiculous and stupid is just what the right wants.
I promise you that most Republican voters would swear on their children's lives that Hillary Clinton is an evil woman who (through malice or incompetence) aided in the deaths of Americans in Benghazi. Honestly, if Dems spend a month yelling about anything, even something a "scandal" as cooked up as Benghazi, a large portion of the American public would swear it is true because they heard something about it. Dems on the Hill should spend the next two years screaming about Republican malfeasance.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
I promise you that most Republican voters would swear on their children's lives that Hillary Clinton is an evil woman who (through malice or incompetence) aided in the deaths of Americans in Benghazi. Honestly, if Dems spend a month yelling about anything, even something a "scandal" as cooked up as Benghazi, a large portion of the American public would swear it is true because they heard something about it. Dems on the Hill should spend the next two years screaming about Republican malfeasance.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.
Yeah. It's funny but as Chuck Tingle said, he's terrible because he's an evil devilman not because Bigfoot is his preferred pound.
posted by Justinian at 7:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
Yeah. It's funny but as Chuck Tingle said, he's terrible because he's an evil devilman not because Bigfoot is his preferred pound.
posted by Justinian at 7:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?
posted by gtrwolf at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by gtrwolf at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
a large portion of the American public would swear it is true because they heard something about it.
the portion of the american public stupid enough to believe shit like that in the first place will also under no circumstances believe anything a democrat says.
posted by poffin boffin at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
the portion of the american public stupid enough to believe shit like that in the first place will also under no circumstances believe anything a democrat says.
posted by poffin boffin at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
yesss everyone update me on good local ballot initiatives, this is the only thing I can be happy about
This about as local as local can get, but Cuyahoga County (the greater Cleveland area) has basically just passed an amendment to the county charter "to prohibit discrimination in county employment on the basis of gender identity/expression." (There was some other stuff in there too about separating/clarifying the roles of a couple of HR-related departments, and technically not all precincts have reported in but right at this moment it stands at 229,000 "yes" votes to 77,000 "no" votes, so it's a done deal.)
posted by soundguy99 at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
This about as local as local can get, but Cuyahoga County (the greater Cleveland area) has basically just passed an amendment to the county charter "to prohibit discrimination in county employment on the basis of gender identity/expression." (There was some other stuff in there too about separating/clarifying the roles of a couple of HR-related departments, and technically not all precincts have reported in but right at this moment it stands at 229,000 "yes" votes to 77,000 "no" votes, so it's a done deal.)
posted by soundguy99 at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?
Yes.
posted by scrump at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Yes.
posted by scrump at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
I thought that was going to be a reference to Dean Phillips, but apparently now weâll have two Congressmen with links to Bigfoot.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Whether Beto runs again or not, he's built up a great local network of committed Texans and Cornyn is a big, juicy, evil target.
The Allred thing put me into cake territory. Sessions is one evil little carbuncle our state can do without.
posted by emjaybee at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
The Allred thing put me into cake territory. Sessions is one evil little carbuncle our state can do without.
posted by emjaybee at 7:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Man Who Writes Bigfoot Erotica Now a U.S. Congressman
If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.
Insert "family values"-related comment here.
posted by gtrwolf at 7:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
If he wasn't a Republican, I'd be celebrating this.
Insert "family values"-related comment here.
posted by gtrwolf at 7:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Besides, Bigfoot isn't his preferred pound; his book is titled "Mating Habits of Bigfoot and Why Women Want Him." He doesn't want to bang Bigfoot - I'll bet it's some awful evo-psych monstrosity claiming that women want a man who doesn't bathe and who literally hauls them around by force.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
mikelieman: I'm cool with a couple of years of Democrats lining up to be seen yelling at Brett Kavanaugh. In the House hearings, *every* witness is going to be heard, and Kavanaugh is going to be cross-examined under oath.
There will be lot of fantastic investigations, subpoenas, and so on, but absolutely do not hold your breath for the House (?) investigating Kavanaugh (?). Unless you're getting more at the way he might be connected to Russia-Lago than at his assaults and recent perjury over same.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
There will be lot of fantastic investigations, subpoenas, and so on, but absolutely do not hold your breath for the House (?) investigating Kavanaugh (?). Unless you're getting more at the way he might be connected to Russia-Lago than at his assaults and recent perjury over same.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Cindy Axne seems to have picked up a Dem Congressional seat in the Des Moines area. That one was too close to call, and I was a little worried about it, so it's good news. Democrat Dave Loebsack held in Iowa 2, which wasn't ever really in doubt. Still waiting to hear about Iowa 1, which was polling strongly for the Democrat, Abby Finkenauer. And there's Steve King, but I'm not letting myself hope that he'll lose.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I thought that was going to be a reference to Dean Phillips, but apparently now weâll have two Congressmen with links to Bigfoot.
But only one of them has a family distillery!
posted by nickmark at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018
But only one of them has a family distillery!
posted by nickmark at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018
How do tonight's Senate results compare to the map going in? It was very Republican friendly.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by kirkaracha at 7:52 PM on November 6, 2018
One narrative not adequately being expressed tonight is how much the Democratic legal effort has helped produce this result. The fight to redistrict PA has been huge. Georgia is at all competative because of legal wins to stop voter suppression. Adding 1.4 million potential new voters to Florida is going to be crucial in 2020. There's a whole quiet apparatus that's doing this work, and it doesn't get enough credit.
posted by zachlipton at 7:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [86 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 7:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [86 favorites]
> I suspect part of the point of the absurd Benghazi hearings was to discredit possible future hearings.
Thatâs very clever, but too clever for this actual world. It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.
Also: it's a lot harder to discredit hearings and investigations when they turn up evidence of actual wrongdoing, which they will, because wrongdoing is why most members of the administration were chosen.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Thatâs very clever, but too clever for this actual world. It was just Republicans lining up to be seen yelling at Hillary Clinton.
Also: it's a lot harder to discredit hearings and investigations when they turn up evidence of actual wrongdoing, which they will, because wrongdoing is why most members of the administration were chosen.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I'm looking forward to congressional oversight and burying Trump under a mountain of uncovered slime. On the other hand, it doesn't look like the blue wave I was hoping for is going to happen. I was hoping that many of the Republicans who voted for Trump would be disgusted with his leadership and vote Democrat. That does't appear to be happening, and that's sobering.
posted by xammerboy at 7:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by xammerboy at 7:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?
Better than him calling it illegitimate. Let him gloat; the House is going to royally fuck him up for the next two years.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Better than him calling it illegitimate. Let him gloat; the House is going to royally fuck him up for the next two years.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Damn, the Ohio governor's race looks like it's lost by a significant margin, which really doesn't bode well for 2020.
posted by skewed at 7:55 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by skewed at 7:55 PM on November 6, 2018
How do tonight's Senate results compare to the map going in? It was very Republican friendly.
Ask this in a couple hours when we know about the western states. Right now it's on the border between "not great but not unexpected" and disaster.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Ask this in a couple hours when we know about the western states. Right now it's on the border between "not great but not unexpected" and disaster.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
So, come tomorrow morning will Trump be gloating about the Senate staying red or having a meltdown about the Dems taking the House and more than a few governorships thanks to Sotos-funded illegal caravan immigrants?
Neither. He'll spend it basking in the glow of 2016, how huge that win was & how it was much more important than yesterday.
posted by scalefree at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Neither. He'll spend it basking in the glow of 2016, how huge that win was & how it was much more important than yesterday.
posted by scalefree at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
@ezraklein
NYT is projecting Democrats win a ~9% margin in the House popular vote. The last time we saw a margin like that was 08, amidst a collapsing economy and a loathed war.
Unemployment is 3.7% right now. America isn't at war. A margin this big is nuts â a pure repudiation of Trump.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [53 favorites]
NYT is projecting Democrats win a ~9% margin in the House popular vote. The last time we saw a margin like that was 08, amidst a collapsing economy and a loathed war.
Unemployment is 3.7% right now. America isn't at war. A margin this big is nuts â a pure repudiation of Trump.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [53 favorites]
So, I did a lot for the Allred campaign, and I'm beyond thrilled that he won, but I literally cried when the pundits called the state for Cruz. I don't even understand how people can vote for him, he's just so repulsive.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Better than him calling it illegitimate. Let him gloat; the House is going to royally fuck him up for the next two years.
Only if we demand it and force the House to do its job. Winning the House is only the first step: we have to apply pressure for the House to actually govern, which is where the deep benches and steady effort come in.
posted by scrump at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Only if we demand it and force the House to do its job. Winning the House is only the first step: we have to apply pressure for the House to actually govern, which is where the deep benches and steady effort come in.
posted by scrump at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
@peteschroeder: Honestly surprised at Cordray losing. He's definitely not a rousing retail politician, but you'd think a record of policing banks and payday lenders on behalf of consumers would resonate.
It's dangerous to extrapolate from a single House race, but that's not a great sign for a Warren-style campaign in 2020 focusing on Wall Street.
posted by zachlipton at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
It's dangerous to extrapolate from a single House race, but that's not a great sign for a Warren-style campaign in 2020 focusing on Wall Street.
posted by zachlipton at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
The elected every two years House is going to what now? No.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Dems pick up NM Gov.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 7:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I was hoping that many of the Republicans who voted for Trump would be disgusted with his leadership and vote Democrat.
Corey Stewart, and out and proud Nazi, still got 1 million votes in VA. A lot of our fellow citizens are just flat out misogynistic, racists, fuckwads. And they will always vote Republican.
posted by COD at 7:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [48 favorites]
Corey Stewart, and out and proud Nazi, still got 1 million votes in VA. A lot of our fellow citizens are just flat out misogynistic, racists, fuckwads. And they will always vote Republican.
posted by COD at 7:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [48 favorites]
Illinois: All 5 constitutional offices won by Democrats (Gov + Lt Gov, AG, Comptroller, Treasurer, Secy State). Sean Casten (D) has defeated Peter Roskam (R) in a district considered very difficult to win for Ds.
Betsey Dirksen Londrigan (D) is running ahead of Rodney Davis (R-i), race not yet called -- bits of Springfield but almost entirely rural, Davis should not be losing. Lauren Underwood (D-awesome) is running ahead of Randy Hultgren (R-i) in a case that observers are calling political malpractice on Hultgren's part -- tiny bits of Naperville but otherwise totally gerrymandered to be the last remaining R stronghold in the Chicago area.
If Londrigan and Undersood indeed win, the only GOP reps out of 18 will be Mike Bost (rural areas outside St. Louis), Adam Kinzinger (rural collar around Chicago, and not as big a win as he ought to have gotten), and Darin LaHood, incredibly gerrymandered Peoria-Bloomington-and-Springfield district created to keep Aaron Schock in office before his big scandal (and LaHood winning entirely on his father's name recognition). In three majority-minority cities, the district manages to be 91% white. (I was never happier than when my neighborhood was deemed "too diverse" for Aaron Schock and we got jumped out of his district by 6 blocks and put into Cheri Bustos's.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Betsey Dirksen Londrigan (D) is running ahead of Rodney Davis (R-i), race not yet called -- bits of Springfield but almost entirely rural, Davis should not be losing. Lauren Underwood (D-awesome) is running ahead of Randy Hultgren (R-i) in a case that observers are calling political malpractice on Hultgren's part -- tiny bits of Naperville but otherwise totally gerrymandered to be the last remaining R stronghold in the Chicago area.
If Londrigan and Undersood indeed win, the only GOP reps out of 18 will be Mike Bost (rural areas outside St. Louis), Adam Kinzinger (rural collar around Chicago, and not as big a win as he ought to have gotten), and Darin LaHood, incredibly gerrymandered Peoria-Bloomington-and-Springfield district created to keep Aaron Schock in office before his big scandal (and LaHood winning entirely on his father's name recognition). In three majority-minority cities, the district manages to be 91% white. (I was never happier than when my neighborhood was deemed "too diverse" for Aaron Schock and we got jumped out of his district by 6 blocks and put into Cheri Bustos's.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Uhhhh... the results I'm looking at for Ohio, sent to me by a Summit County resident, show that Cordray won. What are y'all looking at?
posted by palomar at 7:58 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by palomar at 7:58 PM on November 6, 2018
Lujan Grisham win in NM gov should mean a Dem trifecta there.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Corey Stewart, and out and proud Nazi, still got 1 million votes in VA. A lot of our fellow citizens are just flat out misogynistic, racists, fuckwads. And they will always vote Republican.
And the Illinois Nazi is at around 45k.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
And the Illinois Nazi is at around 45k.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
CNN just called Florida for de Santis (R). BOOOOO. Racist voter suppression.
posted by Justinian at 7:59 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Justinian at 7:59 PM on November 6, 2018
Tim Walz [D] wins gov of Minnesota.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
America isn't at war.
[citation needed]
posted by oulipian at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
[citation needed]
posted by oulipian at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
@Taniel: Civil rights attorney Anita Earls (D) has won a seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court, ousting GOP Justice Barbara Jackson. This extends Democrats' majority on the court to 5-2, and it thwarts GOP plans to pack the Court. Could be crucial for voting rights litigation, more. The GOP changed THREE electoral rules just to win this election. Instead, their efforts to rig election massively backfired in their face. Absolutely spectacular.
You can read background on the incredible length NC Republicans went to to try to prevent this.
posted by zachlipton at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [67 favorites]
You can read background on the incredible length NC Republicans went to to try to prevent this.
posted by zachlipton at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [67 favorites]
Delgado ousts GOP Rep. Faso in #NY19!
This was one of the elections to feature the MOST racist campaign on the GOP's part. It's a big election for House make-up, *and* symbolically.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
This was one of the elections to feature the MOST racist campaign on the GOP's part. It's a big election for House make-up, *and* symbolically.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
ABC has called the house for the Dems.
Steve King is down 51-47.
A day may come when the courage of men* fails but it is not this day.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
Steve King is down 51-47.
A day may come when the courage of men* fails but it is not this day.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
We might get the other Nazi out of Congress. "in the 4th District, J.D. Scholten is leading Rep. Steve King 51 percent to 47 percent." (via 538)
posted by spamandkimchi at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by spamandkimchi at 8:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Empress, we're over here looking at the Wisconsin map.
Beat me to it....
Dane County/Madison is only about 2/3 in. That's the biggest potential source of further Evers votes.
Milwaukee is almost all in, not many more D votes to be found there, but Waukesha/Washington/Ozaukee in the Milwaukee suburbs are also almost all in, so those R strongholds don't have many more votes to report either.
Sheboygan/Manitowoc areas haven't reported yet...not sure how those will drop. Could be a wash.
Several small counties in the west/northwest haven't reported a lot of votes yet, those will favor Walker, the total numbers from any given county will be small, what the grand total will be, I'm not sure. By the time I put together a spreadsheet, you'll probably know the winner anyway.
Gut reaction: somewhat good for Evers, but not decided yet.
posted by gimonca at 8:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Beat me to it....
Dane County/Madison is only about 2/3 in. That's the biggest potential source of further Evers votes.
Milwaukee is almost all in, not many more D votes to be found there, but Waukesha/Washington/Ozaukee in the Milwaukee suburbs are also almost all in, so those R strongholds don't have many more votes to report either.
Sheboygan/Manitowoc areas haven't reported yet...not sure how those will drop. Could be a wash.
Several small counties in the west/northwest haven't reported a lot of votes yet, those will favor Walker, the total numbers from any given county will be small, what the grand total will be, I'm not sure. By the time I put together a spreadsheet, you'll probably know the winner anyway.
Gut reaction: somewhat good for Evers, but not decided yet.
posted by gimonca at 8:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Oh thank god Faso is gone.
posted by The Whelk at 8:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 8:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Dont' get excited about Steve King yet. Only 11% of votes have been counted, and they could all be from Ames.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
538 has 100% chance of D House control and I still don't believe it because that part of my brain is a burned-out hole with a dead fly stuck in it
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
Please, please, I barely survived the glimmer of hope when it looked like Ted Cruz would lose. Don't tease me with Steve White Nationalist King until it's a sure thing.
posted by skewed at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by skewed at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Also: it's a lot harder to discredit hearings and investigations when they turn up evidence of actual wrongdoing
Not at all. They've already been laying the groundwork for this: the evidence is false, it's a witch hunt, the process is biased, etc. That's the point: it doesn't matter what's actually found. What matters is how it's perceived. They want the public to view it all as a partisan circus where nothing is honest or true, it's all just spin and bias.
If they muddy the waters enough it can soften the blow of any actual wrongdoing found, maybe even leave the impression in the base that it's all lies. That can yield future elections victories, or at least help hold the line.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Not at all. They've already been laying the groundwork for this: the evidence is false, it's a witch hunt, the process is biased, etc. That's the point: it doesn't matter what's actually found. What matters is how it's perceived. They want the public to view it all as a partisan circus where nothing is honest or true, it's all just spin and bias.
If they muddy the waters enough it can soften the blow of any actual wrongdoing found, maybe even leave the impression in the base that it's all lies. That can yield future elections victories, or at least help hold the line.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
And there's Steve King, but I'm not letting myself hope that he'll lose.
Still, if you told me a year ago I'd be looking at the NYT projecting only a +4.4 lead for the evil shitbag, I'd have never believed it. Scholten's my Beto, I'll be sad about a loss but jesus, the strides he's made!
posted by jason_steakums at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Still, if you told me a year ago I'd be looking at the NYT projecting only a +4.4 lead for the evil shitbag, I'd have never believed it. Scholten's my Beto, I'll be sad about a loss but jesus, the strides he's made!
posted by jason_steakums at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
If Steve King loses, this will all have been worth it.
Some of the most openly racist and corrupt voices in the GOP are about to leave the building. Good.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Some of the most openly racist and corrupt voices in the GOP are about to leave the building. Good.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Uhhhh... the results I'm looking at for Ohio, sent to me by a Summit County resident, show that Cordray won. What are y'all looking at?
Politico called it for DeWine (R) over Cordray (D). DeWine is up by 6, not sure how he doesn't win unless there's a weird number of missing votes or something.
Cordray is winning Summit County though.
posted by zachlipton at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018
Politico called it for DeWine (R) over Cordray (D). DeWine is up by 6, not sure how he doesn't win unless there's a weird number of missing votes or something.
Cordray is winning Summit County though.
posted by zachlipton at 8:02 PM on November 6, 2018
The elected every two years House is going to what now? No.
The House could run a campaign that is 18 months of investigations into a line of Republican criminals that tops the full cast of the Simpsons and then follow it up with a three month (August to October) montage of, "this $RepublicanCriminal hurt your district, but more importantly they hurt Your Grandma with this $SpecificDistrictTargetedCriminalAction".
Or they could play football with the Senate GOP again.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
The House could run a campaign that is 18 months of investigations into a line of Republican criminals that tops the full cast of the Simpsons and then follow it up with a three month (August to October) montage of, "this $RepublicanCriminal hurt your district, but more importantly they hurt Your Grandma with this $SpecificDistrictTargetedCriminalAction".
Or they could play football with the Senate GOP again.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Well, at least now that this is all over Muellermass is coming. So there's that.
posted by sjswitzer at 8:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by sjswitzer at 8:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
America isn't at war.
Afghanistan, anyone?
But since no one pays attention to it, I guess his point stands.
posted by greermahoney at 8:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Afghanistan, anyone?
But since no one pays attention to it, I guess his point stands.
posted by greermahoney at 8:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Damn it, Florida man.
In an otherwise decent evening so far, Gillum is bumming me out, and I'm guessing Nelson is toast too.
The Senate stings, a bit, with Heitkamp, Donnely, Bredesen, and Nelson all going down. But the Governors - wow! Remember, we're still paying the price for the 2010 midterms, because those losses led to us losing big in the 2010 census redistricting. These new governors will supervise redistricting after the 2020 census, and that's a BIG deal.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
In an otherwise decent evening so far, Gillum is bumming me out, and I'm guessing Nelson is toast too.
The Senate stings, a bit, with Heitkamp, Donnely, Bredesen, and Nelson all going down. But the Governors - wow! Remember, we're still paying the price for the 2010 midterms, because those losses led to us losing big in the 2010 census redistricting. These new governors will supervise redistricting after the 2020 census, and that's a BIG deal.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
Dave Wasserman (Cook Political Report)
â@Redistrict
Projection: today is the first day in history Americans have elected more than 100 women to the U.S. House of representatives.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
â@Redistrict
Projection: today is the first day in history Americans have elected more than 100 women to the U.S. House of representatives.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
Only about 300 votes separating Lance (R) and Malinowski (D) in NJ-07, which is a potential flip district. Votes from the Republican counties have been tallied, but still lots of precincts out in the Dem counties (including the one I canvassed in!)
posted by apparently at 8:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by apparently at 8:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
America isn't at war.
Afghanistan, anyone?
And a handful of other countries, increasingly and most importantly including itself.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Afghanistan, anyone?
And a handful of other countries, increasingly and most importantly including itself.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
One wonders if the Democratic Party could have done better in Senate races if they didn't have to go rescue Menendez in New Jersey.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
NBC calling TX-07 for Fletcher (D) over Culberson (R-incumant). That's another Texas pickup in a Clinton district that was a super-close tossup in a district that's been Republican controlled since George HW Bush won his House seat ages ago.
Beto's getting his downballot revenge.
posted by zachlipton at 8:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
Beto's getting his downballot revenge.
posted by zachlipton at 8:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [47 favorites]
So if Congress asks for Trump's tax returns tomorrow, how long do we have to wait? :-)
posted by xammerboy at 8:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by xammerboy at 8:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Andy Kim (D, NJ-03) is up by 395 votes with 99% of the precincts voting. This is over incumbent Tom MacArthur, he of the MacArthur amendent that almost killed the ACA. I canvassed in NJ-03 and, oh god, I want Kim to win.
posted by mcduff at 8:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by mcduff at 8:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Inauguration day at the earliest I would imagine.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 8:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
One wonders if the Democratic Party could have done better in Senate races if they didn't have to go rescue Menendez in New Jersey.
I really don't think another $2M is what would have changed the outcome for Heitkamp and Donnelly.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I really don't think another $2M is what would have changed the outcome for Heitkamp and Donnelly.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
NBC News calls it for Abby Finkenauer (D) in IA-01 over Rep. Rod Blum (R). This was a historic D area that swung R in 2014 and to Trump in 2016.
Also if you're looking for rising stars, she's a charismatic 29-year old whose dad is a welder. I visited his house, nice place.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
Also if you're looking for rising stars, she's a charismatic 29-year old whose dad is a welder. I visited his house, nice place.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
Ask [about comparing Senate results to the map going in] in a couple hours when we know about the western states. Right now it's on the border between "not great but not unexpected" and disaster.
Nah, so far even +3 or +4 is meh for Republicans. If they'd had this economy and a normal Republican President, they'd be sweeping almost all the states Trump won and making Casey stretch for it the way Cruz has instead of picking off the people we've always known were most vulnerable. Whatever's going on with Stabenow in MI is the exception to that but it seems to have come back.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Nah, so far even +3 or +4 is meh for Republicans. If they'd had this economy and a normal Republican President, they'd be sweeping almost all the states Trump won and making Casey stretch for it the way Cruz has instead of picking off the people we've always known were most vulnerable. Whatever's going on with Stabenow in MI is the exception to that but it seems to have come back.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
NBC is calling Iowa 1 for Abby Finkenauer. So Iowa is going from having an all-male, 3 Republicans and 1 Dem Congressional delegation to 2 women, 2 men, and at least 3 Democrats. (Probably 3 Democrats and Steve fucking King, but we'll see.)
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
So if Congress asks for Trump's tax returns tomorrow, how long do we have to wait? :-)
Til January 3rd, 2019 at the earliest when the 116th Congress begins.
posted by jedicus at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Til January 3rd, 2019 at the earliest when the 116th Congress begins.
posted by jedicus at 8:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
So if Congress asks for Trump's tax returns tomorrow, how long do we have to wait? :-)
Well, at least now that this is all over Muellermass is coming. So there's that.
There's still the lame duck, and an expected exodus from cabinet positions. They can do a lot of damage between tonight and when Jim Clyburn gets subpoena power.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Well, at least now that this is all over Muellermass is coming. So there's that.
There's still the lame duck, and an expected exodus from cabinet positions. They can do a lot of damage between tonight and when Jim Clyburn gets subpoena power.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
MS Senate: Looks like the runoff is Espy [D] and Hyde-Smith [R]. Likely R hold in the runoff, barring anything crazy.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:10 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 8:10 PM on November 6, 2018
In my neighboring State Senate district the R incumbent retired, and the D candidate is currently up about 600 votes with two rural/exurban districts left to report. If anyone is lighting candles, could you spare one for this race? PA has a Dem executive but both chambers of the leg are filled with raving lunatic Republicans. A few pickups there would be awesome.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
NYT projecting King +2.8 now, holy... Still not even halfway counted but this is exciting.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
And here come the Dem county results! Malinowski (D) up 2500 votes, with 96% reporting and only a few precincts from Union Co (D+11) to go! I think NJ-07 goes blue. :D
posted by apparently at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by apparently at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
America isn't at war.
America has been at war nearly constantly for over 230 years. It's what we do.
posted by Harry Caul at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
America has been at war nearly constantly for over 230 years. It's what we do.
posted by Harry Caul at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
@Redistrict: #OK05: Kendra Horn (D) has apparently defeated Rep. Steve Russell (R). The district voted 53%-40% for Trump in 2016. This is a HUGE upset for Democrats.
I haven't seen this call from anyone else yet, but Wasserman is pretty careful. Very much the "woah where did that come from?" district nobody was looking at.
Update: NBC is joining this call.
posted by zachlipton at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
I haven't seen this call from anyone else yet, but Wasserman is pretty careful. Very much the "woah where did that come from?" district nobody was looking at.
Update: NBC is joining this call.
posted by zachlipton at 8:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
oh god I need to retire and let King be a pleasant surprise (or predictable disappointment) in the morning....
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The Democratic Party has made some strides, but they still have a ways to go. They need new blood, fresh blood. We knew Nelson was a bad candidate. Yet, he was the nominee. Menendez won but it was messy. Meanwhile, weâre seeing younger people with new ideas and a different perspective (because they grew up in a different socioeconomic world than their parents) and people are buying in. As has been mentioned earlier in the thread, though, we didnât get into this mess overnight, and we arenât getting out of it overnight either. Still, between flipping the house and picking up governorships, this is a good start.
posted by azpenguin at 8:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 8:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
In my neighboring State Senate district the R incumbent retired
Do you mean SD-38? I think Vulakovich was primaried out.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Do you mean SD-38? I think Vulakovich was primaried out.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
So basically, it sounds like the big stories are going to be racist voter suppression in the South and Dem gains in red states/ areas that aren't in the South. That, of course, is barring any surprises when results from further West come in.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I'm thinking...there was a blue wave. Look at the local races and the governorships and the more liberal ballot initiatives that have passed. But it just couldn't breach the white wall that is the Senate.
And yes, if the occupant of the white house was a "normal" R, we might be looking at a worse Senate map. We might have seen R gains in Wisconsin, Michigan, even the Minnesota Special and Pennsylvania.
(I also wonder if opioids have rotted a lot of brains in IN and OH. That crisis hit hard there.)
Barring "let's get Socialist Unitarian cat-loving cohousing going in Cheyenne and Fargo" the Senate is our biggest stumbling block.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
And yes, if the occupant of the white house was a "normal" R, we might be looking at a worse Senate map. We might have seen R gains in Wisconsin, Michigan, even the Minnesota Special and Pennsylvania.
(I also wonder if opioids have rotted a lot of brains in IN and OH. That crisis hit hard there.)
Barring "let's get Socialist Unitarian cat-loving cohousing going in Cheyenne and Fargo" the Senate is our biggest stumbling block.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
azpenguin: " They need new blood, fresh blood. We knew Nelson was a bad candidate. Yet, he was the nominee."
Well, okay, but Gillum was an *outstanding* candidate, and he lost by almost exactly the same amount.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Well, okay, but Gillum was an *outstanding* candidate, and he lost by almost exactly the same amount.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Oh was he, Chrysostom. I defer to your knowledge absolutely here.
I also want to light the "Lindsey Williams SOCIALIST!!!!!!" official Schaffer campaign signs in Etna on fire.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I also want to light the "Lindsey Williams SOCIALIST!!!!!!" official Schaffer campaign signs in Etna on fire.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
And tomorrow morning we wake up and start campaigning for 2020, because the GoodGuysAndGals have to keep winning in '20 AND '22 to fully reverse the downward spiral...
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Sununu [R-i] holds on to be re-elected NH governor.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 6, 2018
Holy shit but that these strides were made in the face of blatant gerrymandering is heartening. It feels like the long nationwide trend towards minority rule has been hauled to a stop.  Making up lost ground is still to come and will take shitloads of hard work, but it feels like at least we're no longer sliding backwards.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
With 65% reporting in my little corner of the country (NY23), the odious Tom Reed leads Tracy Mitrano by only 2519 votes (1.7%). But alas, Tompkins county (bright blue Ithaca) is 100% in, and the rest of the district... sigh.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Williams leads incumbent Gianforte in early results for Montana's only U.S. House seat
Weighted toward cities and only a lead of 6,000 votes so far, but 6,000 votes is a significant piece of Montana's electorate. Slam him bodily, Kathleen.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Weighted toward cities and only a lead of 6,000 votes so far, but 6,000 votes is a significant piece of Montana's electorate. Slam him bodily, Kathleen.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Pappas [D] wins in NH-01. Not a shock, but there was some contradictory polling here that made him look vulnerable.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Damn it, Florida man
Yeah.... Every time.
posted by xammerboy at 8:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yeah.... Every time.
posted by xammerboy at 8:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
jason_steakums: NYT projecting King +2.8 now, holy... Still not even halfway counted but this is exciting.
To be careful with language, I don't think that's a projection, it's a tally. Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018
To be careful with language, I don't think that's a projection, it's a tally. Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018
Still watching Minnesota 1st District. Slight lead for Hagedorn, the Republican, right now....but no votes at all have been reported yet from Rochester/Olmsted County, which I think should provider blue votes. Hoping for a Feehan win here.
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018
Damn it, Florida man
Yeah.... Every time.
Forget it Jake, it's Florida.
posted by gtrwolf at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Yeah.... Every time.
Forget it Jake, it's Florida.
posted by gtrwolf at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
NYT is projecting Democrats win a ~9% margin in the House popular vote. The last time we saw a margin like that was 08, amidst a collapsing economy and a loathed war.
Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?
posted by Automocar at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?
posted by Automocar at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [49 favorites]
Damn, the Ohio governor's race looks like it's lost by a significant margin, which really doesn't bode well for 2020.
Yeah, I'm definitely having a "WTF OHIO!!!!" moment, especially considering that Sherrod Brown (D, progressive) tromped all over Renacci (R, Neanderthal). If you look at the county-level maps on CNN, there's a bunch of suburban/exurban counties that Brown won where apparently the voters had some kind of hysterical contrariness reaction and went R for the state-level offices.
(Or, y'know, maybe that ebbil "liberal" mainstream media hasn't done nearly enough to clearly point out when "mainstream" Republican candidates are fucking lying their asses off so that even low-info voters might begin to grasp that if they like the policies of a Democratic politician in one office maybe they should think twice before voting for a Republican for another office just because they kinda recognize his name. . . . . but that's a rant for another day.)
posted by soundguy99 at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I'm definitely having a "WTF OHIO!!!!" moment, especially considering that Sherrod Brown (D, progressive) tromped all over Renacci (R, Neanderthal). If you look at the county-level maps on CNN, there's a bunch of suburban/exurban counties that Brown won where apparently the voters had some kind of hysterical contrariness reaction and went R for the state-level offices.
(Or, y'know, maybe that ebbil "liberal" mainstream media hasn't done nearly enough to clearly point out when "mainstream" Republican candidates are fucking lying their asses off so that even low-info voters might begin to grasp that if they like the policies of a Democratic politician in one office maybe they should think twice before voting for a Republican for another office just because they kinda recognize his name. . . . . but that's a rant for another day.)
posted by soundguy99 at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
@realDonaldTrump: Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!
haha.gif
posted by zachlipton at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
haha.gif
posted by zachlipton at 8:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Things don't look good for McCaskill. Fox is calling it for Hawley. Not a huge surprise at this point but I'm pretty disappointed.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Afghanistan, anyone?
Democrats Want To Take On The War In Afghanistan If They Win The House
Democrats Want To Take On The War In Afghanistan If They Win The House
As Democrats plan for a potential future in which they have control of the U.S. House, lawmakers, candidates and outside groups close to the party are quietly preparing a new push against the overlooked war in Afghanistan.posted by kirkaracha at 8:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
...
So Democrats are considering long-discussed proposals to torpedo the warâs entire legal justification â the sweeping post-9/11 congressional authorization that has been used to support U.S. military action well beyond Afghan borders â and tie funding for the campaign to clearly outlined strategic goals and troop reductions. Thereâs also talk of using new oversight powers to hold top officials, military commanders, defense contractors and foreign partners accountable for accusations of human rights violations, corruption and political posturing at the cost of human lives. And while party leaders are loath to commit to a particular course, they feel certain this is an issue their colleagues and their political base see as a priority.
41% of precincts reporting and Scholten still leads King by almost 10,000 votes. Still bracing for a heartbreak...
posted by Jeanne at 8:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Jeanne at 8:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Brian Williams: "Over 100 women have been elected to the House"
Maddow: "That's the most ever right? This calls for a cake"
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [55 favorites]
Maddow: "That's the most ever right? This calls for a cake"
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [55 favorites]
Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?
Not just losing overall, but losing seats from the status quo ante.
Never let anyone tell you you live in a democracy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
Not just losing overall, but losing seats from the status quo ante.
Never let anyone tell you you live in a democracy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
Automocar: "Can we just pause to marvel that our system which gave one party a 9-point margin is going to translate into winning 52% of the seats of one house, and losing the other?"
I'm not going to argue the Senate is fair, it's not at all. But they only have 1/3 of seats up, that 9 points does not translate to the states involved, necessarily.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
I'm not going to argue the Senate is fair, it's not at all. But they only have 1/3 of seats up, that 9 points does not translate to the states involved, necessarily.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Democrat Malinowski takes NJ-07 from Leonard Lance! Flipped!
posted by apparently at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by apparently at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
To be careful with language, I don't think that's a projection, it's a tally. Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.
It's their "Live estimate of the final vote", whatever they mean by that. And it's maddening, I'm trying very very hard not to hope too much.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
It's their "Live estimate of the final vote", whatever they mean by that. And it's maddening, I'm trying very very hard not to hope too much.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Exit poll data on TX senate race shows Beto with huge margins among all non-white voters. White voters, OTOH... Sigh.
posted by TwoStride at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
@baseballot: #MN08 is officially Republicans' first House pickup of the night. Stauber (R) defeats Radinovich (D) in an ancestrally Democratic, working-class district that lurched heavily toward Trump.
That district went Trump +15.6 in 2016. The new map.
posted by zachlipton at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
That district went Trump +15.6 in 2016. The new map.
posted by zachlipton at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Stabenow keeps on stabbin'.
Benjy Sarlin: NBC News projects Debbie Stabenow (D) wins re-election over John James (R), a pro-Trump African American veteran with a lot of fans in the WH and conservative media.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Benjy Sarlin: NBC News projects Debbie Stabenow (D) wins re-election over John James (R), a pro-Trump African American veteran with a lot of fans in the WH and conservative media.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
I can't find a reliable online source of actual vote tallies, but Twitter tells me that the New Hampshire state senate has flipped to the Democrats. And in my little district of the state (Rockingham 21), it appears all four state representative spots went to the Democratic candidates, some of whom I hosted at my house. I really do love this state, even if we like to "pull a Massachusetts" every so often and go with a Republican governor.
posted by schoolgirl report at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by schoolgirl report at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Stabenow [D] took a while, but has won in MI Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Everybody everywhere is still projecting that he holds the seat.Yeah, that's true, but the Dems just flipped a state senate seat in Sioux City, and it looks like Republicans may lose two congressional seats and quite possibly the governorship. (Knock wood.) So even if King wins, I think anti-King sentiment is going to have been a factor in this election.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
HA my local wing nut State senator Konni Burton just conceded to the Dem opponent. Hot damn.
posted by emjaybee at 8:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 8:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Never let anyone tell you you live in a democracy.
Luckily no Republican will ever say that these days and will always respond with WE DON'T WANT MOB RULE WE'RE A REPUBLIC NOT A DEMOCRACY for some reason.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Luckily no Republican will ever say that these days and will always respond with WE DON'T WANT MOB RULE WE'RE A REPUBLIC NOT A DEMOCRACY for some reason.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Brat has not conceded, but Spanberger claiming victory and Brat allies lamenting loss of the seat. (VA-07)
posted by COD at 8:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by COD at 8:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Florida Sen heading for a recount?
posted by ahundredjarsofsky at 8:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by ahundredjarsofsky at 8:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
...And in less flashy Iowa races, still watching Naig vs Gannon for Agriculture Secretary, which I care about insofar as fishy campaign finance stuff has been happening (and also - I don't think we're going to get PROGRESSIVE agriculture policy in Iowa anytime soon, but can we get a LITTLE pushback against enormous corn-soybean monoculture. Plz.)
posted by Jeanne at 8:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Jeanne at 8:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Tina Smith wins in MN Senate (and Amy Klobuchar, but we all knew that). I'm glad to see that if only to STFU the people who thought that Smith would go down in flaaaames because she's not Al Franken. (This is why a deep bench is a good thing to have...). Glad to see MN represented by two Democratic women Senators!
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
At this juncture, I would like to thank Metafilter for all their hard work and for suggesting I drink Dark and Stormys tonight. Both have made this evening much easier to get through.
posted by dannyboybell at 8:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
posted by dannyboybell at 8:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
We haven't been talking a lot about state races, but:
@JonCampbellGAN: That's it: The [New York] state Senate GOP is conceding defeat. Democrats will control the Senate, Assembly and governor's office come January.
@baseballot: New York becomes ANOTHER Democratic trifecta.
posted by zachlipton at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
@JonCampbellGAN: That's it: The [New York] state Senate GOP is conceding defeat. Democrats will control the Senate, Assembly and governor's office come January.
@baseballot: New York becomes ANOTHER Democratic trifecta.
posted by zachlipton at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
538: Proposal 3 in Michigan has officially passed with 67% of the vote. That will result in big changes to voting in the Wolverine State, which will now have automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, straight-ticket voting, and the ability to vote absentee without an excuse.
Also, Nate Silver: Steve King now down 5 points with more than 50 percent reporting. The Upshot still says the race leans his way, but Iâm not sure I buy that.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Also, Nate Silver: Steve King now down 5 points with more than 50 percent reporting. The Upshot still says the race leans his way, but Iâm not sure I buy that.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Marc Elrich won his race for Country Executive and this is a bigger thing then you think, the top elected executive of a major metroploain area is now gonna be a cranky socialist backed by DC DSA
posted by The Whelk at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Yeah, that's true, but the Dems just flipped a state senate seat in Sioux City
This would be the scummy Rick Bertrand getting turfed out for the awesome Jackie Smith! Bertrand, who the local Indivisible crew went after hard for never showing up to town halls, resigned his seat during his last term, and then jumped back in the race very late this year. And I'm so glad to see him go!
Woodbury county results have been a weird mixed bag, though.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
This would be the scummy Rick Bertrand getting turfed out for the awesome Jackie Smith! Bertrand, who the local Indivisible crew went after hard for never showing up to town halls, resigned his seat during his last term, and then jumped back in the race very late this year. And I'm so glad to see him go!
Woodbury county results have been a weird mixed bag, though.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I am fucking done with this for tonight. I have enough Lagunitas Brown Shugga in my system to put down a hippo. Good night all
posted by RedShrek at 8:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
posted by RedShrek at 8:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
Brat has not conceded, but Spanberger claiming victory and Brat allies lamenting loss of the seat.
And old Cantor (R) Republicans enjoying the schadenfreude.
posted by Justinian at 8:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
And old Cantor (R) Republicans enjoying the schadenfreude.
posted by Justinian at 8:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
(R, Neanderthal)âŚ
Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Lawrence O'Donnell speculated that the next Speaker of the House might not be Nancy Pelosi but rather... Adam Schiff. I gotta say as somebody who voted for him hard today that I'd be okay with that. (I'm also ok with Pelosi.)
posted by Justinian at 8:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 8:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
House Intelligence Chairman-elect Adam Schiff on MSNBC name-checking Bob Mueller is my everything right now.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 8:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
(It's been kind of fun ranking all the school board members and house of Delegates such the DSA is picking up, the old advice to start by electing dog catchers is working out)
posted by The Whelk at 8:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 8:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
McCaskill conceded. I know she wasn't always the most reliable Dem, but I've also known enough crazy backwoods Missourians in my time that I have a lot of respect for how long she was able to thread the needle. Here's hoping her post-Senate time goes to something useful (not punditry).
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
@MIRSnews: [Michigan] Proposal 1, the legalization of recreational marijuana, has passed.
Lawrence O'Donnell speculated that the next Speaker of the House might not be Nancy Pelosi but rather... Adam Schiff. I gotta say as somebody who voted for him hard today that I'd be okay with that. (I'm also ok with Pelosi.)
Personally, I'd be rather ok with Pelosi taking the gavel for a while, because she's damn good at what she does and can get a Democratic House off on a strong foot, and then passing it to a new generation of leadership.
posted by zachlipton at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Lawrence O'Donnell speculated that the next Speaker of the House might not be Nancy Pelosi but rather... Adam Schiff. I gotta say as somebody who voted for him hard today that I'd be okay with that. (I'm also ok with Pelosi.)
Personally, I'd be rather ok with Pelosi taking the gavel for a while, because she's damn good at what she does and can get a Democratic House off on a strong foot, and then passing it to a new generation of leadership.
posted by zachlipton at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
I said in the first comment I ever made here that I wasn't advocating for mega threads every week between now and then, but I've been awfully glad for them.
I knew we weren't going to flip CD5 here in CO and it still sucks that Lamborn (R-i) got reelected without even working for it. Stephany was so good, dammit. The results on ballot initiatives are mixed. Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution, but didn't vote to better fund our schools or require a greater minimum setback distance for new fracking development. I'm taking some solace that currently my other crush candidate, Jena Griswold, is leading Wayne Williams in the Secretary of State race.
posted by danielleh at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I knew we weren't going to flip CD5 here in CO and it still sucks that Lamborn (R-i) got reelected without even working for it. Stephany was so good, dammit. The results on ballot initiatives are mixed. Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution, but didn't vote to better fund our schools or require a greater minimum setback distance for new fracking development. I'm taking some solace that currently my other crush candidate, Jena Griswold, is leading Wayne Williams in the Secretary of State race.
posted by danielleh at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Walker down by 14,000-odd votes with 74% reporting.
Ellison holding an 8% lead over Wardlow for MN AG with 58% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Ellison holding an 8% lead over Wardlow for MN AG with 58% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
It could have been better, could have been worse, but look at the firsts this election: First openly gay governor. First American Indian women elected to Congress...one of them LGBTQ to boot. First Muslim women elected to Congress. Potentially recordbreaking numbers of women elected to the House.
I'm hoping to see that the real wave was in state and local elections. In MI, in addition to Whitmer winning, Stabenow (now apparently) retaining her seat, and the passage of a couple of good ballot proposals to eliminate gerrymandering and make voting easier, we're looking at Democratic women winning the races for Secretary of State and Attorney General (after YEARS of white/Republican/men-pick 2). Dems are also looking to make deep inroads into the large R majorities in the state house and senate.
posted by Preserver at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
I'm hoping to see that the real wave was in state and local elections. In MI, in addition to Whitmer winning, Stabenow (now apparently) retaining her seat, and the passage of a couple of good ballot proposals to eliminate gerrymandering and make voting easier, we're looking at Democratic women winning the races for Secretary of State and Attorney General (after YEARS of white/Republican/men-pick 2). Dems are also looking to make deep inroads into the large R majorities in the state house and senate.
posted by Preserver at 8:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [28 favorites]
So if Herr Twitler cans Mueller as seems possible now that the election's now wrapped up, are the incoming Democrats gonna be all "don't pack your bags, we may have a job for you in just over a month."
I hope so.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
I hope so.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Iâm watching Knute Buehler (R) concede the Oregon governorâs race right now. Yesss. Nike CEO Phil Knight reportedly gave Buehler $2.5 million for his stupid campaign.
posted by chrchr at 8:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by chrchr at 8:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Pelosi from the stage at the DCCC claiming her history is airing immediately after msnbc interview w schiff. If itâs a race between them for leadership the producers made a solid booking choice.
Pelosi is. . . Not inspiring. (Former constituent but also a realist).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Pelosi is. . . Not inspiring. (Former constituent but also a realist).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Hard night for the Senate. But if Steve King goes down in the House, I'll still take it.
And just as I resign myself to the outcome, *now* 538 catches on: ... thereâs a surprisingly close race developing in the New York 23rd District, where GOP Rep. Tom Reed leads Democrat Tracy Mitrano just 52 to 48 percent.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
And just as I resign myself to the outcome, *now* 538 catches on: ... thereâs a surprisingly close race developing in the New York 23rd District, where GOP Rep. Tom Reed leads Democrat Tracy Mitrano just 52 to 48 percent.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
McCaskill gave me one of the highlights of my year. She was the graduation speaker at Missouri State this year for my daughter's graduation. After the ceremony, my father-in-law, a die-hard Trump supporter, was raving about how great her speech is. I looked him straight in the eye and said, you know she is a Democrat, right? He didn't. The look on his face was priceless. I only wish somebody had caught this exchange on tape.
posted by COD at 8:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
posted by COD at 8:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution
Uh, wha?... y...ay I guess
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Uh, wha?... y...ay I guess
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Early reporting from Arizona shows some good signs:
US Senate: Sinema (D) and McSally (R) are just about tied, with 49% each, but Sinema has about 2000 votes more at this point. A real nailbiter here.
US Congress (District 9): Greg Stanton (D) leading Stephen Ferrara (R) by a wide margin so far.
And a race that is near and dear to my heart...
Maricopa Community College District Governing Board: It looks like we MAY have elected FOUR sane board members (a bare majority out of 7) to undo some of the damage the cryptoRepublican crazies have caused over the past seven months. If these numbers hold, I may be able to keep my job and health care, which would be, you know, cool.
posted by darkstar at 8:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
US Senate: Sinema (D) and McSally (R) are just about tied, with 49% each, but Sinema has about 2000 votes more at this point. A real nailbiter here.
US Congress (District 9): Greg Stanton (D) leading Stephen Ferrara (R) by a wide margin so far.
And a race that is near and dear to my heart...
Maricopa Community College District Governing Board: It looks like we MAY have elected FOUR sane board members (a bare majority out of 7) to undo some of the damage the cryptoRepublican crazies have caused over the past seven months. If these numbers hold, I may be able to keep my job and health care, which would be, you know, cool.
posted by darkstar at 8:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
I got to vote for Mazie Hirono today so I'll at least be 100% pleased with that.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [29 favorites]
Pelosi: "let's hear it more for pre-existing medical conditions"
She meant that in the sense of "cheer more for preserving coverage for such conditions," but what actually came out of her mouth amounted to asking the crowd to cheer for disease.
posted by zachlipton at 8:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
She meant that in the sense of "cheer more for preserving coverage for such conditions," but what actually came out of her mouth amounted to asking the crowd to cheer for disease.
posted by zachlipton at 8:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Walker down by 14,000-odd votes with 74% reporting.
Hmm, I'm seeing Evers up by only 4,085 with 78% reporting in, and that's up from a few minutes ago. Dane County just reported in another chunk of votes.
Join the fun and listen live to Wisconsin Public Radio!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 8:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Hmm, I'm seeing Evers up by only 4,085 with 78% reporting in, and that's up from a few minutes ago. Dane County just reported in another chunk of votes.
Join the fun and listen live to Wisconsin Public Radio!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 8:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Good news in Oregon, I was getting slightly antsy about that one.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I'm very pleased with Michigan results. My chosen candidate for state house doesn't look like she's going to win but she got closer than any Dem has in years. The GOP had never spent a cent on the race and had to swoop in with $225K to save it. Proposals 2 and 3 passing are going to make a giant difference in future races, too.
posted by MaritaCov at 8:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by MaritaCov at 8:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
@AP_Politics: BREAKING: Democrat Cindy Axne wins election to U.S. House in Iowa's 3rd congressional district. #APracecall at 10:39 p.m. CST.
That's a nice pickup over David Young in a seat that has defied Democrats.
posted by zachlipton at 8:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
That's a nice pickup over David Young in a seat that has defied Democrats.
posted by zachlipton at 8:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
> Personally, I'd be rather ok with Pelosi taking the gavel for a while, because she's damn good at what she does and can get a Democratic House off on a strong foot, and then passing it to a new generation of leadership.
That's not a thing that really happens, though. If she's elected Speaker, as she likely will, she's going to hold it until 2020. They're not going to boot her in a few months and show a lack of unity to voters and constituents.
I'm perfectly fine with a real fight for the gavel in January. She was unquestionably an effective Speaker, but let's make her earn it back.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
That's not a thing that really happens, though. If she's elected Speaker, as she likely will, she's going to hold it until 2020. They're not going to boot her in a few months and show a lack of unity to voters and constituents.
I'm perfectly fine with a real fight for the gavel in January. She was unquestionably an effective Speaker, but let's make her earn it back.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
(Btw, if you are curious - I am only updating my tracker when the Politico bot calls a race, just for my own sanity. So sometimes I am lagging a bit.)
posted by Chrysostom at 8:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
House Intelligence Chairman-elect Adam Schiff
After the complete and totally corrupt behavior from Nunes and the other Republicans on that committee these past two years, I have to say, this is delicious.
posted by darkstar at 8:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
After the complete and totally corrupt behavior from Nunes and the other Republicans on that committee these past two years, I have to say, this is delicious.
posted by darkstar at 8:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
Nancy Pelosi is giving a Bill Clinton-esque laundry list of extremely focus-groupy policy things "reducing prescription drugs for seniors", etc., and then talking about bipartisanship.
She then moves on to the honoring-our-veterans part.
I really want her to be the Speaker I know she can be. But unfortunately, it sounds like that'll take some pressure from the left.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
She then moves on to the honoring-our-veterans part.
I really want her to be the Speaker I know she can be. But unfortunately, it sounds like that'll take some pressure from the left.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Uh, wha?
You know that exception in the 13th amendment that says you can treat convicts as free labor? Colorado outlawed it.
posted by cmfletcher at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [67 favorites]
You know that exception in the 13th amendment that says you can treat convicts as free labor? Colorado outlawed it.
posted by cmfletcher at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [67 favorites]
The Whelk: (It's been kind of fun ranking all the school board members and house of Delegates such the DSA is picking up, the old advice to start by electing dog catchers is working out)
Welp - that's exactly the playbook the Gross Old Pervert party used to build up its bench, and playing the long game (and the racism game) seems to have paid off. I like to think the DSA can have its efforts pay off similarly, sans of course the racism card. Let's go from "red" to "pinko!"
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Welp - that's exactly the playbook the Gross Old Pervert party used to build up its bench, and playing the long game (and the racism game) seems to have paid off. I like to think the DSA can have its efforts pay off similarly, sans of course the racism card. Let's go from "red" to "pinko!"
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Self care note: super tux cart is awsome.
posted by ocschwar at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Colorado finally removed slavery from its constitution
Uh, wha?... y...ay I guess
Yeah, slavery was allowable "as a punishment for a crime" in the constitution. It was 50/50 last time it came up two years ago; glad we don't have to do this again!
Also Dems appear to have taken the State Senate back (they have leads in all the seats they need to flip) so they have the trifecta now here, too.
posted by jackflaps at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Uh, wha?... y...ay I guess
Yeah, slavery was allowable "as a punishment for a crime" in the constitution. It was 50/50 last time it came up two years ago; glad we don't have to do this again!
Also Dems appear to have taken the State Senate back (they have leads in all the seats they need to flip) so they have the trifecta now here, too.
posted by jackflaps at 8:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Yeah, the vote tally updated right after I posted.
We also picked up 3? 4? governorships so far. In Kansas no less!
posted by Autumnheart at 8:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
We also picked up 3? 4? governorships so far. In Kansas no less!
posted by Autumnheart at 8:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
In my (admittedly limited) memory, Pelosi has always been terrible at communicating with the public (just as Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid were). She's fantastic at whipping votes and raising money: it seems like Dems could do better solving their problems with aging, overloaded leadership by pushing the public outreach parts of the job to more charismatic members and let Pelosi manage substantive stuff in the background. I've always been skeptical of the anti-Pelosi stuff because a) people really hate women and b) of course Republicans would attack one of the most capable Democratic legislators.
(fake careless shrug)
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
(fake careless shrug)
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [46 favorites]
âŚand for suggesting I drink Dark and Stormys tonightâŚ
Woohoo! Tomorrow's hangover is going to be so worth it. Damn but these are tasty.  Sad to see the carbon tax initiative looking like it's failing in Washington state, if I'm reading the results correctly through my dark rum buzz. It wasn't perfect by any means, but I had hopes for it setting the stage for other states to write better ones.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Woohoo! Tomorrow's hangover is going to be so worth it. Damn but these are tasty.  Sad to see the carbon tax initiative looking like it's failing in Washington state, if I'm reading the results correctly through my dark rum buzz. It wasn't perfect by any means, but I had hopes for it setting the stage for other states to write better ones.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Dane county still has approx. 50 precincts which haven't reported yet. But there are four counties left that haven't reported any precincts at all (Menominee County only has two precincts). I have so much anxiety about this particular election and I don't even live in WI anymore!
posted by acidnova at 8:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by acidnova at 8:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Nancy Pelosi is giving a Bill Clinton-esque laundry list of extremely focus-groupy policy things "reducing prescription drugs for seniors", etc., and then talking about bipartisanship.
She knows that a lot of tonight's winners are New Dems and Blue Dogs, not Progressives. She's smart and she wants that gavel back, and she's not going to get it back with just the Metafilter vote this time. A lot of people are going to learn what kind of victory we won isn't all sunshine and roses, but that's for later and tonight we can be happy we get to have that fight at all.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
She knows that a lot of tonight's winners are New Dems and Blue Dogs, not Progressives. She's smart and she wants that gavel back, and she's not going to get it back with just the Metafilter vote this time. A lot of people are going to learn what kind of victory we won isn't all sunshine and roses, but that's for later and tonight we can be happy we get to have that fight at all.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
She should be Whip then, and graciously and generously pass the mantle of Speaker on to someone who can be the new face of progressive, democratic leadership in this country.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Via Josh Marshall retweet, Iowa started off the night with a Repub. Governor + 3 GOP Reps + 1 Dem Rep. Could end the night with ZERO Republicans, including the loss of racist Steve King.
I'll never make another ethanol joke if Steve King is booted out tonight, I promise.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I'll never make another ethanol joke if Steve King is booted out tonight, I promise.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
In "here in Indiana we'll take any shred of hope we can get" news, JD Ford [D] has become the first openly LGBT member of the state legislature. And he did it in a State Senate district that's considered competitive, not a solid Dem district.
In less good news, It looks like Republicans will keep a walkout-proof supermajority of the State Senate here (at least 34/50 seats, only 25 of which are up in any given election), although it's unclear at this point whether they'll keep a walkout-proof supermajority of the State House (had 70/100 seats prior to this election, need 67).
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
In less good news, It looks like Republicans will keep a walkout-proof supermajority of the State Senate here (at least 34/50 seats, only 25 of which are up in any given election), although it's unclear at this point whether they'll keep a walkout-proof supermajority of the State House (had 70/100 seats prior to this election, need 67).
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
In Oregon, Kate Brown (D) wins her first full term.
Here in Portland, Jo Ann Hardesty elected black city council member. She's a fierce advocate for affordable housing here. If you're familiar with Oregon demographics, you know how white this place is and how housing prices are out of control.
Good news on the ballot measure front too.
I would have liked to have seen Greg Walden, our one and only Republican congresscritter, defeated, but that was always a long shot. Eastern and Central Oregon is a tough nut to crack.
posted by vverse23 at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Here in Portland, Jo Ann Hardesty elected black city council member. She's a fierce advocate for affordable housing here. If you're familiar with Oregon demographics, you know how white this place is and how housing prices are out of control.
Good news on the ballot measure front too.
I would have liked to have seen Greg Walden, our one and only Republican congresscritter, defeated, but that was always a long shot. Eastern and Central Oregon is a tough nut to crack.
posted by vverse23 at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
You met Zach Wahls as the Eagle Scout with two moms who, still a teenager, testified for marriage equality to the Iowa state legislature. Tonight, just now, he became an Iowa State Senator himself. Congrats, @ZachWahls. You've done us proud.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [115 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [115 favorites]
Dem pickup in MN-02. Angie Craig defeats the odious Jason Lewis.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [23 favorites]
Damn it, Florida man
FL is officially a red state. Trump junior is now governor and a two-term governor that never won more than 49% of the vote and everyone seems to despise is now our SECOND republican senator. We may have flipped an odd seat here or there but I really hope people stop with the "FL is purple" or FL is on the verge of going Blue BS. FL democrats are so used to losing that they don't know how to run a campaign that anyone thinks they may win. FL is truly a lost cause.
posted by photoslob at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
FL is officially a red state. Trump junior is now governor and a two-term governor that never won more than 49% of the vote and everyone seems to despise is now our SECOND republican senator. We may have flipped an odd seat here or there but I really hope people stop with the "FL is purple" or FL is on the verge of going Blue BS. FL democrats are so used to losing that they don't know how to run a campaign that anyone thinks they may win. FL is truly a lost cause.
posted by photoslob at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I would be happy if my Representative, the feckless Steny Hoyer (D-MD), ceded Majority Whip to Ms. Pelosi and dedicated his time to overseeing revisions to brochures in the visitorsâ center.
posted by wintermind at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by wintermind at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Pelosi is. . . Not inspiring. (Former constituent but also a realist).
She gave a perfectly serviceable speech for the ribbon cutting at the new Denny's opening off the interstate.
But it really isn't the Speaker's job to give inspiring speeches. They are there to wrangle votes, and she does that like nobody's business. Obamacare could perhaps more accurately be called Pelosicare.
posted by Justinian at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
She gave a perfectly serviceable speech for the ribbon cutting at the new Denny's opening off the interstate.
But it really isn't the Speaker's job to give inspiring speeches. They are there to wrangle votes, and she does that like nobody's business. Obamacare could perhaps more accurately be called Pelosicare.
posted by Justinian at 8:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [43 favorites]
Dem pickup in MN-02. Angie Craig defeats the odious Jason Lewis.
Hallelujah! Iâm sure that asshole will go back to talk radio, but better that than public office.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Hallelujah! Iâm sure that asshole will go back to talk radio, but better that than public office.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Steve King's up up literally 40 votes with 69% precincts voting. I'm afraid he's got the edge in the small, slow-to-report precincts.
posted by skewed at 8:52 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by skewed at 8:52 PM on November 6, 2018
Fuck yeah, Kate Brown.
posted by cortex at 8:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by cortex at 8:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
A bright spot in a grim night for the Senate: Tester (D) appears to be doing quite well in Montana. He's a good guy and I'm glad.
posted by Justinian at 8:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 8:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
I like to think the DSA can have its efforts pay off similarly, sans of course the racism card. Let's go from "red" to "pinko!"
One big narrative I think going unsaid so far is the build up of the democratic back bench by this, wich was very very low and filled with people mostly over 60. A huge uptick in elected officials in low level positions cause filter up to more viable national level party which currently has the problem of having like 6 or 7 people near retirement age they shuffle around as needed.
posted by The Whelk at 8:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
One big narrative I think going unsaid so far is the build up of the democratic back bench by this, wich was very very low and filled with people mostly over 60. A huge uptick in elected officials in low level positions cause filter up to more viable national level party which currently has the problem of having like 6 or 7 people near retirement age they shuffle around as needed.
posted by The Whelk at 8:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
VA-07 goes to Spanberger. Fuck you, Brat. Carried by Cantor voters, according to Amy Walter.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
PBS just called VA-7 for Spanberger, 50.1% to 48.7%, over Tea Party favorite Dave Brat. The latter, as they just pointed out, defeated Eric Cantor and in doing so basically torpedoed immigration reform by showing the Republicans that doing so would cost them their seats. Intriguing.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
>Brooklyn's lone Republican state senator, Marty Golden (who killed a woman with his car, among other alarming things)
>>That guy was also the final holdout who allowed all the school zone speed cameras in NYC to be shut off this summer, and who was then discovered to have racked up like a dozen speed camera tickets in about four years. And, yeah, he once killed a woman with his car. He is... not strong on traffic safety, let's say.
Holy shit he actually lost!!
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [48 favorites]
>>That guy was also the final holdout who allowed all the school zone speed cameras in NYC to be shut off this summer, and who was then discovered to have racked up like a dozen speed camera tickets in about four years. And, yeah, he once killed a woman with his car. He is... not strong on traffic safety, let's say.
Holy shit he actually lost!!
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [48 favorites]
Worth noting that Beto and Scholten both centered their campaigns around going out to every community and pounding the pavement, talking to voters everywhere no matter who they normally vote for, and standing firm behind Dem principles the whole time they talked to skeptical Republicans. Now imagine if every Dem race was run this way and not just the long shots...
posted by jason_steakums at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 8:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Sununu [R-i] holds on to be re-elected NH governor.
Great news from New Hampshire via 538: Democrats have flipped both the New Hampshire state Senate and state House. The governor's boxed in.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Great news from New Hampshire via 538: Democrats have flipped both the New Hampshire state Senate and state House. The governor's boxed in.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Oof. Iowa Governor's race is looking scary. Basically tied, with mostly rural counties still out.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
@SamWangPhD: Same-day voter registration passing in Maryland, 67-33.This could bring 7% of the voting-age population in Maryland onto the rolls. If automatic or same-day registration were passed nationwide, it would mean close to 40 million new registered voters.
The big story of the next two years needs to be Dems using their gains tonight to make voting rights a top priority issue everywhere we can. We're making a down payment on that tonight with initiatives like these and Florida Amendment 4.
posted by zachlipton at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [51 favorites]
The big story of the next two years needs to be Dems using their gains tonight to make voting rights a top priority issue everywhere we can. We're making a down payment on that tonight with initiatives like these and Florida Amendment 4.
posted by zachlipton at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [51 favorites]
(R, Neanderthal)âŚ
Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
Iâll have you know we are a very progressive bunch- nary a republican among us!
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 8:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Anne Helen Petersen has done great work in making me realize that the Montana/Wyoming/Dakotas/etc area is the place I understand the least and will never get. But good for Tester and America, fingers crossed!
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Semi-human burning cross Steve King holds on.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 8:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
LEGISLATIVE FLIP: Minnesota Dems have picked up the state House.
The GOP had a 77-57 majority going in; that's a lot of pick-ups.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
The GOP had a 77-57 majority going in; that's a lot of pick-ups.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [50 favorites]
NBC just called IA-04 for Steve King (R Nazi)
posted by zachlipton at 8:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 8:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
OregonLive showing a supermajority in the state house for Dems. Dems need 3 of the 7 remaining undecided state senate seats to have a supermajority there as well. This along with Kate winning makes for a great night.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 8:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Mister Fabulous at 8:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Bring on the ethanol jokes! Phew.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
@Redistrict#GA07: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) defeats Rep. Rob Woodall (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 51%-45% for Trump in 2016 and @CookPolitical considers this an upset for Democrats.
That race wasn't polled much, but it was definitely learning R.
Fun fact: @politico_chris: .@Carolyn4GA7 becomes the first white Democrat to hold a congressional seat in the Deep South since Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) left office in 2015. #GA07
posted by zachlipton at 9:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
That race wasn't polled much, but it was definitely learning R.
Fun fact: @politico_chris: .@Carolyn4GA7 becomes the first white Democrat to hold a congressional seat in the Deep South since Rep. John Barrow (D-GA) left office in 2015. #GA07
posted by zachlipton at 9:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
soren_lorensen: "In my neighboring State Senate district the R incumbent retired, and the D candidate is currently up about 600 votes with two rural/exurban districts left to report. If anyone is lighting candles, could you spare one for this race? PA has a Dem executive but both chambers of the leg are filled with raving lunatic Republicans. A few pickups there would be awesome."
With 100% reporting, Lindsay "socialist" Williams has won. 59,231 to 58,933. Dem gain in PA-SD-38!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
With 100% reporting, Lindsay "socialist" Williams has won. 59,231 to 58,933. Dem gain in PA-SD-38!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
In Washington state, mixed results so far on the state-wide ballot measures:
My whole family volunteered for the Initiative 940 campaign last year. Then the state legislature enacted the law but screwed it up because of a procedural mis-step, so the Supreme Court sent it back to voters. Weâll be very relieved to see it approved, finally.
posted by mbrubeck at 9:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
- I-1631 (carbon tax) losing, 44%
- I-1634 (no local soda taxes) winning, 54%
- I-940 (police accountability) winning, 60%
- I-1639 (gun control) winning, 61%
My whole family volunteered for the Initiative 940 campaign last year. Then the state legislature enacted the law but screwed it up because of a procedural mis-step, so the Supreme Court sent it back to voters. Weâll be very relieved to see it approved, finally.
posted by mbrubeck at 9:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Steve King's been in office since 2013. According to historical trends, he has seven more years before the liberation army pins him in his bunker.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:01 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Couple of disappointing close calls in PA. GOP holds on narrowly in PA-01, PA-10, and PA-16.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 PM on November 6, 2018
Yeah, the WA votes are weird. Gun control but no soda taxes?
Probably haven't counted my vote yet, so here's hoping!
posted by Windopaene at 9:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Probably haven't counted my vote yet, so here's hoping!
posted by Windopaene at 9:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Dem pickup in NJ-02, Jeff Van Drew.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
King's basically never even had a hard fight before, he's breezed through elections prior to this. Vilsack came closest and lost by 8 points, nobody else got close. Here's hoping Scholten's up for a rematch in two years.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 9:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Dana Rohrabacher (R - Moscow) in CA-48 is ahead by... 81 votes out of 105,000. I believe that's not a good result for him since absentees in CA trend Republican. He probably wanted some padding out of the absentees.
Fuck this guy.
posted by Justinian at 9:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Fuck this guy.
posted by Justinian at 9:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
WI is at 85% reporting and Walker just pulled into the lead. But it's absolutely neck and neck right now with approx. 200 votes separating the two.
posted by acidnova at 9:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by acidnova at 9:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
So, can anyone tell me what's up with Nevada?
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018
> PBS just called VA-7 for Spanberger, 50.1% to 48.7%
YAY! I wrote postcards for Spanberger!
posted by kristi at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
YAY! I wrote postcards for Spanberger!
posted by kristi at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
Well, the good news in Arizona is that Kate Gallego (ex-wife of my beloved congressman Ruben Gallego) is the next mayor of Phoenix. She is replacing Greg Stanton, who left due to term limits, but who was just elected to CD9. That seat was left vacant by Kyrsten Sinema in her bid for Senate against Tucson Republican Martha McSally.
Which... is a nail-biter.
posted by Superplin at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Which... is a nail-biter.
posted by Superplin at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
> Dana Rohrabacher (R - Moscow) in CA-48 is ahead by... 81 votes out of 105,000.
Yeah, I just started refreshing California obsessively. Rohrbacher (R) and Mimi Walters (R) are both running close with very low fractions reported. Duncan Hunter (R), though, looks like he'll be re-elected.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018
Yeah, I just started refreshing California obsessively. Rohrbacher (R) and Mimi Walters (R) are both running close with very low fractions reported. Duncan Hunter (R), though, looks like he'll be re-elected.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:09 PM on November 6, 2018
So, can anyone tell me what's up with Nevada?
The polls have been closed for 3 hours and not a single vote has been reported and like 2/3 of the vote is early vote and should have been counted very quickly. That's what's up! It's Nevada, whatcha gonna do.
posted by Justinian at 9:10 PM on November 6, 2018
The polls have been closed for 3 hours and not a single vote has been reported and like 2/3 of the vote is early vote and should have been counted very quickly. That's what's up! It's Nevada, whatcha gonna do.
posted by Justinian at 9:10 PM on November 6, 2018
(R, Neanderthal)âŚ
Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:33 PM on November 6
Fair point. My apologies. How about "Renacci (R, Shithead)"? (He was one of the assholes argle-bargling about giving Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for his N Korea nothingburger - it's good to see him go down in flames.)
posted by soundguy99 at 9:10 PM on November 6, 2018
Hey now, as a MeFite of ancestry from Northwest Asia, there's a good chance I'm part Neandertal. Don't smear us with that cretin.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:33 PM on November 6
Fair point. My apologies. How about "Renacci (R, Shithead)"? (He was one of the assholes argle-bargling about giving Trump the Nobel Peace Prize for his N Korea nothingburger - it's good to see him go down in flames.)
posted by soundguy99 at 9:10 PM on November 6, 2018
I take credit for Spanberger (D) in VA-07. She won by like 5000 votes and I sent at least 15,000 texts. They were all to my sister in Glen Allen but still.
posted by Justinian at 9:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 9:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
@NVElect
People are still currently voting in Clark, Washoe, and Lyon because of long lines when the polls closed at 7pm. Once all voters in line have voted, results will be released on SilverStateElection.com
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
People are still currently voting in Clark, Washoe, and Lyon because of long lines when the polls closed at 7pm. Once all voters in line have voted, results will be released on SilverStateElection.com
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Superplin, I can't even watch those numbers anymore. McSally (R) is now up by 5k votes...with the Green candidate having taken over 30k, natch.
Time for bed.
posted by darkstar at 9:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Time for bed.
posted by darkstar at 9:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
BETO JUST SCREAMED IM SO FUCKING PROUD OF YOU GUYS ON LIVE TEEVEE And MSNBC is NOT on a delay, apparently.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [115 favorites]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [115 favorites]
Yeah, I just started refreshing California obsessively
Given the heavy mail vote, you may be refreshing for days.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Given the heavy mail vote, you may be refreshing for days.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:12 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Earth-shattering result: Wake County, NC (Raleigh) just ousted very-longtime GOP sheriff Donnie Harrison, one of single most ICE-friendly sheriffs.
Harrison is in a 287(g) deal, one of closest forms of ICE cooperation. His challenger Gerald Baker has said he'd withdraw from it.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [59 favorites]
Harrison is in a 287(g) deal, one of closest forms of ICE cooperation. His challenger Gerald Baker has said he'd withdraw from it.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [59 favorites]
GA-GOV: It's been a shitshow here with Kemp running his own election process with broken machines and excuses, outstanding questions on 50,000 provisional ballots and registrations (court order says they have two additional days to confirm identity, so not all ballots will be counted this evening), last-weekend robocalls from a white supremacist group, and our own Sunday surprise with Kemp claiming Democrats hacked the SoS office over what probably was whistleblowing that involved no release of data. (Lesson for white-hat security testers, be careful about how and when you blow that whistle.)
From what I saw during my week in Florida, the Trump-esque strategy of criminal accusations may have worked against Gillum as well. But in GA, it was uphill in the snow both ways fighting an entrenched machine that used every dirty trick in the book. Although a bit of humor (which probably reflects my bias) was Pence continuing the grand old tradition of doofus Hoosier VPs by suggesting he was as big as Oprah, but that probably played well at a rally to the faithful out in the middle of the Savannah river.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
From what I saw during my week in Florida, the Trump-esque strategy of criminal accusations may have worked against Gillum as well. But in GA, it was uphill in the snow both ways fighting an entrenched machine that used every dirty trick in the book. Although a bit of humor (which probably reflects my bias) was Pence continuing the grand old tradition of doofus Hoosier VPs by suggesting he was as big as Oprah, but that probably played well at a rally to the faithful out in the middle of the Savannah river.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
FL is truly a lost cause.
FL just got 1.4 milllion new voters, about 10% of the voting populace, who have good reasons not to vote for Republicans.
Hrm. How many of those were counted as "blue" in the color wars? Do they count people who've been disenfranchised but could, technically, possibly vote again, if they petitioned just right?
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
FL just got 1.4 milllion new voters, about 10% of the voting populace, who have good reasons not to vote for Republicans.
Hrm. How many of those were counted as "blue" in the color wars? Do they count people who've been disenfranchised but could, technically, possibly vote again, if they petitioned just right?
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
Cautiously hopeful for Anthony Brindisi (D) in NY. All but one of the counties are reporting 100% â except for Tioga, who have reported 0%. What's up with that?
posted by scruss at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
LOL, the megathread has had fewer than 10 comments in over 6 hours.
posted by darkstar at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by darkstar at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
an online friend from texas shared the following couplet:
win or loseposted by murphy slaw at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [57 favorites]
fuck ted cruz
36% reporting in MT, Williams up 63 votes on Gianforte, Tester up 53-45.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!
posted by Justinian at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 9:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Canadian chiming in to say ...
I've been pretty much media insulated all day. Checked the Guardian for headlines a few minutes ago and and saw the Democrats had taken the House and that "majority of voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction". And the immediate feeling is YEAH! Well done democracy and all you Americans who have made it work tonight.
I will now go for a walk and smoke a legal joint of marijuana.
posted by philip-random at 9:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
I've been pretty much media insulated all day. Checked the Guardian for headlines a few minutes ago and and saw the Democrats had taken the House and that "majority of voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction". And the immediate feeling is YEAH! Well done democracy and all you Americans who have made it work tonight.
I will now go for a walk and smoke a legal joint of marijuana.
posted by philip-random at 9:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!
Don't blame me, I voted for neither.
posted by rhizome at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018
Don't blame me, I voted for neither.
posted by rhizome at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018
@AP_Politics: BREAKING: Democrat Lizzie Fletcher wins election to U.S. House in Texas's 7th congressional district. #APracecall at 11:12 p.m. CST.
That's over incumbent Culberson (R) in what was predicted as a super close tossup. Let me rephrase my earlier statement of "Beto's revenge" in these Texas races to, in the spirit of his concession speech, "Beto's fucking revenge."
posted by zachlipton at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
That's over incumbent Culberson (R) in what was predicted as a super close tossup. Let me rephrase my earlier statement of "Beto's revenge" in these Texas races to, in the spirit of his concession speech, "Beto's fucking revenge."
posted by zachlipton at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
I went looking for the early California results. Started with Google. "Gavin Newsom is predicted to win"... dude. I wanted news. That's not news; it's olds. Nobody is looking at the governor's race.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
scruss: "Cautiously hopeful for Anthony Brindisi (D) in NY. All but one of the counties are reporting 100% â except for Tioga, who have reported 0%. What's up with that?"
Politico has it called for Brindisi.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Politico has it called for Brindisi.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Ugh, now that Newsom is officially in we can start bitching about him, right?
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Over 70% registered voter turnout in my county!
posted by loquacious at 9:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by loquacious at 9:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
RE Newsom: he's better than a Republican celebrity.
(Damning with faint praise.)
posted by darkstar at 9:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
(Damning with faint praise.)
posted by darkstar at 9:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
OregonLive just posted an update. Democratic SUPERMAJORITIES in both state houses (18-11 senate with 1 undecided, 38-22 house) and Democratic governor in one night! Is that a superfecta?
posted by Mister Fabulous at 9:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
posted by Mister Fabulous at 9:17 PM on November 6, 2018 [36 favorites]
Oh, and I'll echo a comment up above and say please, please, PLEASE, consider giving the voting rights organizations engaged in legal activism down here some financial love.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
LOL, the megathread has had fewer than 10 comments in over 6 hours.
The megathread is not a place, it is a people.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
The megathread is not a place, it is a people.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [42 favorites]
Okay...like...the thing is...I don't actually want Dem supermajorities everywhere, I just want Republicans to stop being blatantly racist and cartoonishly evil.
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:19 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
There was no reason not to bitch about him before. Newsom has plenty of things to bitch about. They are bog-standard, run-of-the-mill social-progressive Democratic flaws, but it's not like he's short of them. Croneyism, big business, an amazing knack for avoiding situations where actual empathy might be required.
And yeah. He may well be gearing for a run at the White House in 2024. I'm hoping we have much better candidates by then.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
And yeah. He may well be gearing for a run at the White House in 2024. I'm hoping we have much better candidates by then.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
White women put Cruz over the top.
That is just incomprehensible to me.
Just. What.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
That is just incomprehensible to me.
Just. What.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Superplin, I can't even watch those numbers anymore. McSally (R) is now up by 5k votes...with the Green candidate having taken over 30k, natch. Time for bed.
Yeah, same. The state-wide races are a bloodbath. We've known for weeks that Garcia was toast, but my ladyfolks Katie Hobbs (SOS) and January Contreras (AG) had disappointing showings.
After my 14-hour shift at the polls, I was very smart to stop for a bottle of wine on the way home. Sigh.
posted by Superplin at 9:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yeah, same. The state-wide races are a bloodbath. We've known for weeks that Garcia was toast, but my ladyfolks Katie Hobbs (SOS) and January Contreras (AG) had disappointing showings.
After my 14-hour shift at the polls, I was very smart to stop for a bottle of wine on the way home. Sigh.
posted by Superplin at 9:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I don't actually want Dem supermajorities everywhere
lol I do.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [68 favorites]
lol I do.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [68 favorites]
He may well be gearing for a run at the White House in 2024. I'm hoping we have much better candidates by then.
I'm hoping for an incumbent by then.
posted by Tsuga at 9:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
I'm hoping for an incumbent by then.
posted by Tsuga at 9:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
So, I know it may be too early, but how many women were elected to public office? Here in NM, there were a LOT of women on the ballot.
posted by annsunny at 9:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by annsunny at 9:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Plus his (Newsom) wine is WAY overpriced.
posted by notyou at 9:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by notyou at 9:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
White women put Cruz over the top.
That is just incomprehensible to me.
Just. What.
I mean...
posted by TwoStride at 9:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
That is just incomprehensible to me.
Just. What.
I mean...
posted by TwoStride at 9:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
White women put Cruz over the top.
That is just incomprehensible to me.
psst...they did the same for Trump. Eventually we'll stop being surprised.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
That is just incomprehensible to me.
psst...they did the same for Trump. Eventually we'll stop being surprised.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [35 favorites]
Minnesota tight races:
Minnesota 1st: Feehan (D) just pulled into a very, very small lead.
Minnesota AG: Ellison lead down to four points with 80% of precincts in. With most of Hennepin and Ramsey counties in already, this one is tight. Media is still calling for Ellison, hope that stands up.
Hennepin County Sheriff: Hutch leading by a scant 1% over the odious Stanek, who sent Hennepin County officers to attack protesters at Standing Rock.
posted by gimonca at 9:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Minnesota 1st: Feehan (D) just pulled into a very, very small lead.
Minnesota AG: Ellison lead down to four points with 80% of precincts in. With most of Hennepin and Ramsey counties in already, this one is tight. Media is still calling for Ellison, hope that stands up.
Hennepin County Sheriff: Hutch leading by a scant 1% over the odious Stanek, who sent Hennepin County officers to attack protesters at Standing Rock.
posted by gimonca at 9:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Man, Steve King - an actual, unvarnished Nazi - winning in IA really stings.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by ryanshepard at 9:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Okay, now I'm pretty sure that Brindisi took NY-22 from the incumbent Tenney (R). Good!
posted by scruss at 9:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 9:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Overall, despite disappointments, tonight's results are far better than I'd have let myself hope two years ago, and those gains mean everything. Thank you to all of you volunteers and donors and all the other megathread addicts here keeping us informed and engaged!
posted by jason_steakums at 9:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 9:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
Some slight good news out of Tennessee, Nashville voters approved a charter amendment to create a community oversight board to oversee the police, a victory for Black Lives Matter organizers vs $500k in F.O.P spending.
posted by ghharr at 9:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by ghharr at 9:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
Sean Moody (R) concedes in Maine governor race so we have Janet Mills (D) to replace idiot LePage. Just need Jared Golden to get the RCV votes in Maine 2 and we'll be fully Dem/Independent.
posted by merocet at 9:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
posted by merocet at 9:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [34 favorites]
White women put Trump over the top.
We have a huge number of white women who want to live as June Cleaver, and will vote for whatever guy promises that's the life they're supposed to have. They want to tend children (not young messy children, of course; the entertaining kind who go to school for several hours during the week and are off with friends for the weekends), have someone else pay for a house in a pleasant neighborhood, and leave them with the minor tasks of housekeeping (possibly with the help of a maid) and shopping for gifts.
They don't want to think about injustice or social class; they want to believe that if we all follow The Right Rules, everyone gets to live in a Cleaver household. Nevermind the billions who would be horrified to live that way - it's what they want, and that means it's good for everyone.
Trouble is, they haven't figured out that it doesn't work that way and that the men who promise it, are lying douchebags. But they can't bring themselves to vote for someone with "weird" ideas, so they sigh and vote for whatever asshole reminds them most of 50's sitcom dads.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
We have a huge number of white women who want to live as June Cleaver, and will vote for whatever guy promises that's the life they're supposed to have. They want to tend children (not young messy children, of course; the entertaining kind who go to school for several hours during the week and are off with friends for the weekends), have someone else pay for a house in a pleasant neighborhood, and leave them with the minor tasks of housekeeping (possibly with the help of a maid) and shopping for gifts.
They don't want to think about injustice or social class; they want to believe that if we all follow The Right Rules, everyone gets to live in a Cleaver household. Nevermind the billions who would be horrified to live that way - it's what they want, and that means it's good for everyone.
Trouble is, they haven't figured out that it doesn't work that way and that the men who promise it, are lying douchebags. But they can't bring themselves to vote for someone with "weird" ideas, so they sigh and vote for whatever asshole reminds them most of 50's sitcom dads.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:26 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
Ok, Gavin Newsom is annoying and glib and maybe other things but maybe not terrible? Also he has a fascinating remote cousin.
posted by sjswitzer at 9:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by sjswitzer at 9:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
White women put Cruz over the top.
That is just incomprehensible to me.
psst...they did the same for Trump. Eventually we'll stop being surprised.
Agreed, but, uh, white men in particular can throw no stones here.
posted by rewil at 9:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [69 favorites]
That is just incomprehensible to me.
psst...they did the same for Trump. Eventually we'll stop being surprised.
Agreed, but, uh, white men in particular can throw no stones here.
posted by rewil at 9:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [69 favorites]
And Gavin's remote cousin Tommy was the best Assistant Director Johnny Carson's band ever had. (And a slightly more dynamic personality than Gavin)
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Here are some of the historic firsts from the midterm elections (Buzzfeed)
Naturally their list does not include some of the amazing local people I canvassed for, like Angela Conley, first person of color elected to our county commission. As with so many of these historic Firsts - it was amazing to volunteer for someone who makes history like that. It is outrageous that this line had not yet been crossed.
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Naturally their list does not include some of the amazing local people I canvassed for, like Angela Conley, first person of color elected to our county commission. As with so many of these historic Firsts - it was amazing to volunteer for someone who makes history like that. It is outrageous that this line had not yet been crossed.
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Bill Nelson concedes.
posted by ahundredjarsofsky at 9:30 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by ahundredjarsofsky at 9:30 PM on November 6, 2018
The Wisconsin governorâs race is a fuckinâ nailbiter. Walker is down by 300 votes with 89% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Bill Nelson concedes.
I thought you had to run in an election to concede.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
I thought you had to run in an election to concede.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
> Tom Reed hangs on in NY-23.
Welp, that's it for me for tonight. Our little county went D+51 and we were still outvoted by the surrounding farmland, so it's off to lick our wounds and try again in two years.
> Steve King - an actual, unvarnished Nazi - winning in IA really stings.
Yeah, that and the Senate losses do hurt. But we have the House, and there will be investigations. And we won a bunch of governors and statehouses.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Welp, that's it for me for tonight. Our little county went D+51 and we were still outvoted by the surrounding farmland, so it's off to lick our wounds and try again in two years.
> Steve King - an actual, unvarnished Nazi - winning in IA really stings.
Yeah, that and the Senate losses do hurt. But we have the House, and there will be investigations. And we won a bunch of governors and statehouses.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Missouri voters just hiked the minimum wage by 53 percent - Alexia FernĂĄndez Campbell, Vox. They join Arkansas in voters approving minimum wage hikes.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [45 favorites]
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [45 favorites]
Goddammit, Steve Watkins [R] pulled it off in KS-02.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:31 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
SHOCK: Gavin Newsom (D) elected governor of California!
Yeah, I'm sure you blue area Californians are confident. Meanwhile, I live behind the Orange Curtain where nothing is taken for granted.
(I'm just glad I don't have to cross a state boundary when I want to go get some decent Taiwanese food.)
posted by FJT at 9:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Yeah, I'm sure you blue area Californians are confident. Meanwhile, I live behind the Orange Curtain where nothing is taken for granted.
(I'm just glad I don't have to cross a state boundary when I want to go get some decent Taiwanese food.)
posted by FJT at 9:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
How the ever loving fuck did Rick Scott get elected to the Senate? He defrauded the public of millions and was a complete shit show or a governor.
I'm convinced Ted Cruz manipulated the voting machines btw. Or if not the machines, the local tallies.
posted by fshgrl at 9:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I'm convinced Ted Cruz manipulated the voting machines btw. Or if not the machines, the local tallies.
posted by fshgrl at 9:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Shhh Autumnheart! Walker +750 votes now!
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Rust Moranis: "I thought you had to run in an election to concede."
There's not actually an award in these threads for most consistently snide commentary.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
There's not actually an award in these threads for most consistently snide commentary.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [41 favorites]
In WA State which is where I live, voters defeated initiative 1634 which was essentially a soda tax and initiative 1631 which was a carbon tax. I know people think Seattle and WA is some progressive place but it's not. In my 5 years living here, I keep telling people to eject that myth from their fucking heads.
posted by RedShrek at 9:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by RedShrek at 9:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Looks like Kemp is going to win in Georgia. Guess they can kiss future elections goodbye there.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Hello from Maine!
Republican Shaun Moody concedes to Dem Janet Mills, making her Maineâs first female Governor. Also, Dems flipped the State Senate and retained the House. Dem Pingree held her seat in CD1 by a wide margin, and although theyâll be counting CD2 for a couple of days yet, it appears Dem Golden may unseat GOP incumbent Poloquin. Oh, and weâre sending Angus King back to the Senate.
So, Iâm pretty confident we can return Maine to blue state status, Great things are going to happen here in the next 2 years....
Senator Collins best pack her bags, because Iâm pretty sure sheâs done in 2020.
posted by anastasiav at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Republican Shaun Moody concedes to Dem Janet Mills, making her Maineâs first female Governor. Also, Dems flipped the State Senate and retained the House. Dem Pingree held her seat in CD1 by a wide margin, and although theyâll be counting CD2 for a couple of days yet, it appears Dem Golden may unseat GOP incumbent Poloquin. Oh, and weâre sending Angus King back to the Senate.
So, Iâm pretty confident we can return Maine to blue state status, Great things are going to happen here in the next 2 years....
Senator Collins best pack her bags, because Iâm pretty sure sheâs done in 2020.
posted by anastasiav at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Does WI have an automatic recount trigger?
posted by Autumnheart at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
While it wasn't unexpected, I do want to point out that Ocasio-Cortez won NY-14. Handily.
Somehow, this is the bright spot of the evening to me.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Somehow, this is the bright spot of the evening to me.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Shhh Autumnheart! Walker +750 votes now!
I already stayed up way too late for several nights during the Brewers' post-season. I can't keep doing this, Wisconsin!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018
I already stayed up way too late for several nights during the Brewers' post-season. I can't keep doing this, Wisconsin!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:35 PM on November 6, 2018
Ok, here's Kevin Drum: Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History
Unemployment is at 3.7 percent ... GDP is growing 3 percent per year. Wages are rising nicely. Inflation is tooling along at a very modest 2 percent. Manufacturersâ shipments are healthy. Consumer spending is strong and household debt is low. Aside from the dotcom boom, consumer confidence is at a 40-year high.
And yet, Republicans are going to lose three dozen seats in the House and cede control to the Democrats. Has any party ever done so badly in the midst of such strong economic performance?
I guess there was LBJ in 1966, after passing the Civil Rights Act and losing the South forever. But thatâs about it. ... itâs one of the great political blowouts of modern history.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
Unemployment is at 3.7 percent ... GDP is growing 3 percent per year. Wages are rising nicely. Inflation is tooling along at a very modest 2 percent. Manufacturersâ shipments are healthy. Consumer spending is strong and household debt is low. Aside from the dotcom boom, consumer confidence is at a 40-year high.
And yet, Republicans are going to lose three dozen seats in the House and cede control to the Democrats. Has any party ever done so badly in the midst of such strong economic performance?
I guess there was LBJ in 1966, after passing the Civil Rights Act and losing the South forever. But thatâs about it. ... itâs one of the great political blowouts of modern history.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [39 favorites]
I actually have a different Hot Take on Racist White Ladies. They're bitter. They played by the rules but generally ended up in unhappy lives/marriages, and they're doubling down and looking to make someone pay. People of color are as always, an easy target for whatever rage and fear they refuse to deal with in a healthy way.
Many of the women my age I know have never left the US, have not visited many states, didn't enjoy school or learning, and have always lived comfortably, and have no idea what poverty is like. They are provincial, in other words. They resent and fear change.
posted by emjaybee at 9:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [92 favorites]
Many of the women my age I know have never left the US, have not visited many states, didn't enjoy school or learning, and have always lived comfortably, and have no idea what poverty is like. They are provincial, in other words. They resent and fear change.
posted by emjaybee at 9:36 PM on November 6, 2018 [92 favorites]
I canvassed for 1631 in Seattle and I will say: The messaging was horrible. The phrase âclimate changeâ was verboten, and instead there was a lot of talk about âbig pollutersâ and children getting asthma. The voters I talked to were mostly just confused about it and the flyers I handed out did nothing to help.
It was very frustrating.
posted by argybarg at 9:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
It was very frustrating.
posted by argybarg at 9:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Does WI have an automatic recount trigger?
Nope. "Aggrieved" candidates within 1% can request one. The 1% thing is a recent change, as I understand it, that was made after the Jill Stein recount.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:37 PM on November 6, 2018
Nope. "Aggrieved" candidates within 1% can request one. The 1% thing is a recent change, as I understand it, that was made after the Jill Stein recount.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:37 PM on November 6, 2018
Newsom has plenty of things to bitch about. They are bog-standard, run-of-the-mill social-progressive Democratic flaws, but it's not like he's short of them. Croneyism, big business, an amazing knack for avoiding situations where actual empathy might be required.
Newsom is a bot but that's also kind of one of his strengths. Deep down I believe he will do as he wants and gives no fucks. Overall, I'm glad he's on our side.
I'm pretty heart-broken over Gina Ortiz-Jones losing in Texas. She didn't get the press but she was a HELL of a candidate and gave the best speeches I've heard in years. Look up her talk on social programs being an investment and not a liability. She could be president. I hope she doesn't give up.
posted by fshgrl at 9:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Newsom is a bot but that's also kind of one of his strengths. Deep down I believe he will do as he wants and gives no fucks. Overall, I'm glad he's on our side.
I'm pretty heart-broken over Gina Ortiz-Jones losing in Texas. She didn't get the press but she was a HELL of a candidate and gave the best speeches I've heard in years. Look up her talk on social programs being an investment and not a liability. She could be president. I hope she doesn't give up.
posted by fshgrl at 9:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
I wouldn't hold my breath on WI governor; there's a lot of outstanding vote in Brown County which is red.
posted by Justinian at 9:38 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Justinian at 9:38 PM on November 6, 2018
I'm going to bed y'all. As a Pennsylvanian, I'm quite pleased. As an American I'm... cautiously optimistic and still real fighty? I'll take it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
No automatic recount in WI but a candidate can request one of margin is 1%.
posted by misterpatrick at 9:39 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by misterpatrick at 9:39 PM on November 6, 2018
Happy California results: Most D sweep in the state offices. Not listing; none of those are unexpected.
Unhappy: Poizner up for Insurance Commissioner (claims to be unaffiliated; used to be R but knows how well that works in CA), 53/47 over Lara (D), 21.8% reporting.
Marshall Tuck 52.5/47.5 over Tony Thurmond (nonpartisan race) for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, bleh. Tuck wants vouchers and charter schools. Thurmond is an awesome guy who's actually worked with schools and cares about students, not weird tax money games.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Unhappy: Poizner up for Insurance Commissioner (claims to be unaffiliated; used to be R but knows how well that works in CA), 53/47 over Lara (D), 21.8% reporting.
Marshall Tuck 52.5/47.5 over Tony Thurmond (nonpartisan race) for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, bleh. Tuck wants vouchers and charter schools. Thurmond is an awesome guy who's actually worked with schools and cares about students, not weird tax money games.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History
WELL DONE AMERICA! Against the odds of corrupt officials, gerrymandering, big spending donors, massive lies+ propaganda, voting machine issues, social media fuckery, foreign interference and incumbent bias you not only stemmed the tide of fascism, in some cases you made gains! Celebrate and prepare to keep fighting knowing that today it just got a little bit easier to win even more in upcoming elections.
posted by meech at 9:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
WELL DONE AMERICA! Against the odds of corrupt officials, gerrymandering, big spending donors, massive lies+ propaganda, voting machine issues, social media fuckery, foreign interference and incumbent bias you not only stemmed the tide of fascism, in some cases you made gains! Celebrate and prepare to keep fighting knowing that today it just got a little bit easier to win even more in upcoming elections.
posted by meech at 9:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Autumnheart: "Does WI have an automatic recount trigger?"
Wisconsin recount procedures
Under state law, any candidate voted for in any election can petition election officials for a recount. [...] If a candidate requesting a recount meets either of the following criteria, he or she will not be required to pay a fee:[3]
1) the candidate lost by fewer than 10 votes if 4,000 votes or fewer were cast
2) the candidate lost by no more than 0.25 percent if more than 4,000 votes were cast
posted by Chrysostom at 9:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Wisconsin recount procedures
Under state law, any candidate voted for in any election can petition election officials for a recount. [...] If a candidate requesting a recount meets either of the following criteria, he or she will not be required to pay a fee:[3]
1) the candidate lost by fewer than 10 votes if 4,000 votes or fewer were cast
2) the candidate lost by no more than 0.25 percent if more than 4,000 votes were cast
posted by Chrysostom at 9:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
No automatic recount in WI but a candidate can request one of margin is .25%.
Within 0.25% gets you a free recount upon request, otherwise within 1% has a fee.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Within 0.25% gets you a free recount upon request, otherwise within 1% has a fee.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I forced myself to go dark this morning because I didn't want to deal with any of the horse-race tension and stress. Ten minutes ago I finally opened up some stuff online and found WaPo calling the House flipped. Some of the defeats for Dems are heartbreakers, but flipping one chamber was critical and that's happened. And seeing so many of the "firsts" elected tonight is so encouraging.
We were always gonna have a lot more fighting ahead, no matter how tonight played out. But I feel a lot better going to bed tonight than I did two years ago.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
We were always gonna have a lot more fighting ahead, no matter how tonight played out. But I feel a lot better going to bed tonight than I did two years ago.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
FL is truly a lost cause.
Nope. Florida ended felon disenfranchisement today, which means 40% of black men who couldn't vote this year can vote in 2020. This year's close losses can easily become victories in the next election. Florida is frustrating and weird as heck, but it's not a lost cause.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 9:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [100 favorites]
Nope. Florida ended felon disenfranchisement today, which means 40% of black men who couldn't vote this year can vote in 2020. This year's close losses can easily become victories in the next election. Florida is frustrating and weird as heck, but it's not a lost cause.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 9:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [100 favorites]
I was holding out hope for Kim Olson to pull it out as TX Ag Commissioner. I attended a forum on education hosted by several of the TX Dem candidates, and they pulled Olson out of the audience to wrap up the rally for them. She was absolutely electric, and I have never been more excited to vote for a candidate basically ever. But, you know. It was a Texas downballot state office.
posted by Daughter of Time at 9:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Daughter of Time at 9:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yeah, we're very disappointed that Betsy Londrigan lost by just a few thousand votes to the vile Rodney Davis (IL-13); so close! But I'm excited that our county positions were swept by Democrats, including replacing the fatuous Republican county clerk with a Democrat running on a platform of fighting voter suppression. And our new county sheriff is a Democrat who's going to discontinue cooperating with ICE! and THAT was really a surprise. It's not the big prize we wanted but I'll take it.
posted by daisystomper at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by daisystomper at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I mean, Florida's results were super disappointing - I thought Gillum was great. But they were by 1% or less. That's not irretrievably red.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Marshall Tuck 52.5/47.5 over Tony Thurmond (nonpartisan race) for State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Ugh. Aside from the big propositions, this was the race I hoped was the most possible. Tuck sucks!
posted by rhizome at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Ugh. Aside from the big propositions, this was the race I hoped was the most possible. Tuck sucks!
posted by rhizome at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Within 0.25% gets you a free recount upon request, higher than that has a fee.
Got it. The vote is currently within that range, though. (Not speculating on whether it will stay there.)
But this is what, Walkerâs third election? I mean câmon. Well, you can always come over here to the 10,000 lakes if you get really sick of it.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Got it. The vote is currently within that range, though. (Not speculating on whether it will stay there.)
But this is what, Walkerâs third election? I mean câmon. Well, you can always come over here to the 10,000 lakes if you get really sick of it.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
FL is truly a lost cause
@BenjaminEPark: I swear Florida could be voting between ice cream and a kick to the head and the results would be 50.5%-49.5%
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
@BenjaminEPark: I swear Florida could be voting between ice cream and a kick to the head and the results would be 50.5%-49.5%
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
Walker's (R) up by 2,421 with Milwaukee County fully reported but WPR and Twitter are talking about some 47,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee that are yet to be counted, so...
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Iâd postpone worrying about CA results for a bit. Very few results from LA and other big counties yet.
posted by zachlipton at 9:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 9:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
âŚbut unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that heâs tainted goods.
Wait, she's his EX wife, is that correct? Is there no chance she's his ex wife for a reason?  Guilt by association just seems soâŚMcCarthy-era.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 9:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
Wait, she's his EX wife, is that correct? Is there no chance she's his ex wife for a reason?  Guilt by association just seems soâŚMcCarthy-era.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 9:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
>LEGISLATIVE FLIP: Minnesota Dems have picked up the state House.
The GOP had a 77-57 majority going in; that's a lot of pick-ups.
This is very important to me as a government employee who the Republican legislature was attempting to legislate out of a job. This combined with the Governor win tonight makes my job - and many others in state employment - much more stable. Thanks fellow Minnesotans; I can get some sleep now.
posted by Clinging to the Wreckage at 9:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
The GOP had a 77-57 majority going in; that's a lot of pick-ups.
This is very important to me as a government employee who the Republican legislature was attempting to legislate out of a job. This combined with the Governor win tonight makes my job - and many others in state employment - much more stable. Thanks fellow Minnesotans; I can get some sleep now.
posted by Clinging to the Wreckage at 9:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
Gavin Newsomâs ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently quit her Foxbot job to be Jrâs touring partner. Her top hits include promising that the US will become the cantina scene from Star Wars if Democrats win the house. Apologies to California, but unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that heâs tainted goods.
I'm not comfortable blaming people for their ex-spouses. A LOT of women married and then divorced horrible people and if we start down the road of blaming people for their ex's a lot of women are going to be the victims. Lets blame Newsom for Newsom, not his ex-wife OK?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
I'm not comfortable blaming people for their ex-spouses. A LOT of women married and then divorced horrible people and if we start down the road of blaming people for their ex's a lot of women are going to be the victims. Lets blame Newsom for Newsom, not his ex-wife OK?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 9:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [37 favorites]
Latest on Minnesota 1st: Republican Hagedorn now leading by......21 votes. 86% of precincts reporting.
posted by gimonca at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
How the ever loving fuck did Rick Scott get elected to the Senate? He defrauded the public of millions and was a complete shit show or a governor.
Rick Scott spent the last 18 months frantically courting the Puerto Rican vote in Florida. I'm not saying he won it -- I have no idea what the breakdown of the FL vote is -- but there's probably something to be said for the brazenness and industry of a Republican candidate who goes for it, post-Maria.
None of my Republican voter takes are complex, because Republican voters aren't complex. (Sorry media!) White women vote for Republicans out of tribalism, same as white men. A lot of that "tribalism" is just racism. And let's be fair: there's a lot of poor-to-middle-class white men who get screwed over by voting for Republican, too. Per Kansas, they won't notice until they've been through several decades of Republican rule and at least one decade of incredibly damaging, fringe-conservative control.
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Rick Scott spent the last 18 months frantically courting the Puerto Rican vote in Florida. I'm not saying he won it -- I have no idea what the breakdown of the FL vote is -- but there's probably something to be said for the brazenness and industry of a Republican candidate who goes for it, post-Maria.
None of my Republican voter takes are complex, because Republican voters aren't complex. (Sorry media!) White women vote for Republicans out of tribalism, same as white men. A lot of that "tribalism" is just racism. And let's be fair: there's a lot of poor-to-middle-class white men who get screwed over by voting for Republican, too. Per Kansas, they won't notice until they've been through several decades of Republican rule and at least one decade of incredibly damaging, fringe-conservative control.
posted by grandiloquiet at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
For MN AG, Ellison has widened his lead to 130,000 votes with 88% reporting.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I know people think Seattle and WA is some progressive place but it's not.
Well, you made me curious so I looked up the county breakdown. The carbon tax is leading handily by 12 points in Seattle, King County. However, it seems the rest of the state is pretty red.
posted by JackFlash at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Well, you made me curious so I looked up the county breakdown. The carbon tax is leading handily by 12 points in Seattle, King County. However, it seems the rest of the state is pretty red.
posted by JackFlash at 9:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Ok I need to quit for the night but just to put down a marker: With 8 MILLION votes counted in Texas so far, Beto held cockroach skinsuit Ted Cruz to within 3%. There's still 10% of the state to report - it's not going to be a victory, but that's still an astonishing result.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [21 favorites]
WPR and Twitter are talking about some 47,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee that are yet to be counted, so...
Yes, they have also neglected to count my 2 middle fingers which you can put down for Walker. Does this mean I should go to bed and give up on a WI result for now?
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yes, they have also neglected to count my 2 middle fingers which you can put down for Walker. Does this mean I should go to bed and give up on a WI result for now?
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
It bears pointing out that the majority of college-educated white women went for Hillary. The majority of college-educated white men went for Trump.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:51 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
@JesKas: The Colorado cake baker who refused to bake a cake for a gay couple now has a gay governor.
posted by christopherious at 9:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [91 favorites]
posted by christopherious at 9:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [91 favorites]
Washington (state) has a pretty solid track record of voting against anything that would actually pay for stuff. It's one of the most frustrating things about living here. Seattle and other cities are solidly blue, rural areas red like much of the country. But a lot of the blues are only blue until somebody has to pay for something.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Gavin Newsomâs ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently quit her Foxbot job to be Jrâs touring partner. Her top hits include promising that the US will become the cantina scene from Star Wars if Democrats win the house. Apologies to California, but unless Newsom has a damn good excuse for that heâs tainted goods.
How is he responsible for the actions of a woman he was married to for three years, half of which was spent apart? She left him for a TV job and a richer guy in that order.
The affair he subsequently had with his campaign managers hard-drinking wife was a much bigger albatross around his neck for a long time.
posted by fshgrl at 9:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
How is he responsible for the actions of a woman he was married to for three years, half of which was spent apart? She left him for a TV job and a richer guy in that order.
The affair he subsequently had with his campaign managers hard-drinking wife was a much bigger albatross around his neck for a long time.
posted by fshgrl at 9:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Well, okay, but Gillum was an *outstanding* candidate, and he lost by almost exactly the same amount.
Yeah, but between being black and the troll campaign somewhat successfully associating him with an FBI investigations (claiming he's about to be indicted), it was a long shot. Amendment 4's passage may improve The outlook in the future, thankfully.
posted by wierdo at 9:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yeah, but between being black and the troll campaign somewhat successfully associating him with an FBI investigations (claiming he's about to be indicted), it was a long shot. Amendment 4's passage may improve The outlook in the future, thankfully.
posted by wierdo at 9:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
If you need a pick-me-up, check out AAPI Women Lead's instagram collage of the WOC who've been elected today
posted by TwoStride at 9:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by TwoStride at 9:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
Can we not talk about Newsom's political future (beyond his stint as CA governor) at this point? It seems kind of pointless.
posted by suelac at 9:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by suelac at 9:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
Does this mean I should go to bed and give up on a WI result for now?
I'm giving it 5 more minutes until midnight.
Evers (D) still has half of La Crosse county to count, Walker (R) has Green Bay left, etc, etc. Not a good look for Walker at all, but all you need is 1 or 2, so who knows at this point.
In other Wisconsin news, Doug La Follette (D) has kept his seat as Secretary of State.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm giving it 5 more minutes until midnight.
Evers (D) still has half of La Crosse county to count, Walker (R) has Green Bay left, etc, etc. Not a good look for Walker at all, but all you need is 1 or 2, so who knows at this point.
In other Wisconsin news, Doug La Follette (D) has kept his seat as Secretary of State.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
50% reporting in MT, Gianforte beating Williams 52-45, Tester ahead by only 4,000 votes. I hate it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yeah, the WA votes are weird. Gun control but no soda taxes?
Not sure if you got any of them, but our house got a TON of mailers that were deceptive at best, referring to it as a "Grocery Tax" and saying that it would increase grocery prices, and that sort of thing. I'm sure there were plenty of people who didn't even realize exactly what it was.
posted by Katrel at 9:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Not sure if you got any of them, but our house got a TON of mailers that were deceptive at best, referring to it as a "Grocery Tax" and saying that it would increase grocery prices, and that sort of thing. I'm sure there were plenty of people who didn't even realize exactly what it was.
posted by Katrel at 9:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
It bears pointing out that the majority of college-educated white women went for Hillary. The majority of college-educated white men went for Trump.
You can continuously parse out the demographics however you want, though, depending onthe result you want to achieve. For example... the majority of college educated white men in California went for Hillary. And so on.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
You can continuously parse out the demographics however you want, though, depending onthe result you want to achieve. For example... the majority of college educated white men in California went for Hillary. And so on.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Both Republicans Duncan Hunter and Chris Collins might be going to jail. Both Republicans were re-elected.
posted by JackFlash at 10:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by JackFlash at 10:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The StarTribune is reporting that Ellison is the winner for MN AG. Yeah! We swept the board. Both Senate seats, the governor, the SOS, the auditor and the AG.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 10:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
You can continuously parse out the demographics however you want, though, depending onthe result you want to achieve. For example... the majority of college educated white men in California went for Hillary. And so on.
Yeah, but you don't need to parse it out very far to make a strong case that most white people vote for white supremacy.
posted by joedan at 10:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Yeah, but you don't need to parse it out very far to make a strong case that most white people vote for white supremacy.
posted by joedan at 10:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
WI race. at 94% reporting, Walker and Evers are still fewer than 2,000 votes apart. Nailbiter for sure!
posted by acidnova at 10:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by acidnova at 10:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
*I* voted for Kodos.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
I don't know that anyone's bothered to call it, but if I'm figuring this right Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Margaret Chutich has mathematically eliminated her challenger (who ran against her because she is in a same sex marriage)
posted by ckape at 10:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by ckape at 10:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
*I* voted for Kodos.
(cap voice) I understood that reference (/cap voice)
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 10:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
(cap voice) I understood that reference (/cap voice)
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 10:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Complete Senate wipe out is well in play.
I still have hopes for Tester and Rosen. Dunno what the heck is going on in Arizona but we'll see.
posted by Justinian at 10:06 PM on November 6, 2018
I still have hopes for Tester and Rosen. Dunno what the heck is going on in Arizona but we'll see.
posted by Justinian at 10:06 PM on November 6, 2018
I don't really know what we do from here except clone Joe Manchin and accept that any remotely progressive legislation in the US is dead in the Senate and SCOTUS will eventually be 9-0.
We don't all give up this easily.
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
We don't all give up this easily.
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
@mspicuzzamjs: BREAKING: With governor's race between @Tony4WI and @ScottWalker deadlocked, Milwaukee County has more than 50,000 uncounted absentee ballots jsonline.com/story/news/pol⌠with @DanielBice
This could be a long while.
posted by zachlipton at 10:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
This could be a long while.
posted by zachlipton at 10:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
I don't really know what we do from here except clone Joe Manchin and accept that any remotely progressive legislation in the US is dead in the Senate and SCOTUS will eventually be 9-0.
Iâm tired of reading shit like this. Take it to the screaming thread if youâre determined to be so pessimistic.
What we do is block any GOP attempt to do anything meaningful, and focus on building on our wins for 2020. This is the same GOP that canât stay out of its own way even when they held all 3 branches of government, and now they just lost one.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [81 favorites]
Iâm tired of reading shit like this. Take it to the screaming thread if youâre determined to be so pessimistic.
What we do is block any GOP attempt to do anything meaningful, and focus on building on our wins for 2020. This is the same GOP that canât stay out of its own way even when they held all 3 branches of government, and now they just lost one.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:08 PM on November 6, 2018 [81 favorites]
Kevin Drum: Tonight Was One of the Great Political Blowouts of Modern History
I wouldn't characterize it that way; I'd say it was a Great Political Turning Point... after a steady march for the Republican Party since 2010 toward overwhelmingly dominating American Politics, culminating in getting their worst candidate elected President in 2016, this election hit the brakes in most parts of the political scene and reversed things in a few places. As I said earlier, the Resistance must keep working through 2020 and 2022 to solidly reverse the damage, but... hey, it's a start.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
I wouldn't characterize it that way; I'd say it was a Great Political Turning Point... after a steady march for the Republican Party since 2010 toward overwhelmingly dominating American Politics, culminating in getting their worst candidate elected President in 2016, this election hit the brakes in most parts of the political scene and reversed things in a few places. As I said earlier, the Resistance must keep working through 2020 and 2022 to solidly reverse the damage, but... hey, it's a start.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
I don't really know what we do from here except clone Joe Manchin and accept that any remotely progressive legislation in the US is dead in the Senate and SCOTUS will eventually be 9-0.
We use the House like a blue bat with nails driven through it, hobbling and maiming any GOP initiatives and concentrating on movement building for 2020.
Dems like Pelosi that prate about bipartisanship have the same bat held very close to their faces.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
We use the House like a blue bat with nails driven through it, hobbling and maiming any GOP initiatives and concentrating on movement building for 2020.
Dems like Pelosi that prate about bipartisanship have the same bat held very close to their faces.
posted by ryanshepard at 10:11 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
This is the same GOP that canât stay out of its own way even when they held all 3 branches of government, and now they just lost one.
This bears repeating, especially for those proclaiming tonight's win a lossâ(WTF?).  They've held all three branches for the past two years and have accomplished jack shit aside from the horrible tax gift to the hyper rich.  One piece of significant legislation in two years.  Don't fall for their propaganda.  They suck at governance. That's a fact that isn't up for debate.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [51 favorites]
This bears repeating, especially for those proclaiming tonight's win a lossâ(WTF?).  They've held all three branches for the past two years and have accomplished jack shit aside from the horrible tax gift to the hyper rich.  One piece of significant legislation in two years.  Don't fall for their propaganda.  They suck at governance. That's a fact that isn't up for debate.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [51 favorites]
OK. But the results right now look like 2016 on steroids, meaning the rural-urban divide got a lot worse, which translated to a Senate blowout. Because the Senate votes based on land area, and the House is still mostly based on actual people who can overcome the map if they turn out. Tell me how that gets better without a party of Manchins. The Senate is unfixable, and telling people to talk nicer about it isn't going to change that.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Can we not talk about Newsom's political future (beyond his stint as CA governor) at this point? It seems kind of pointless.
Sorry, I thought we were discussing the ridiculous double standards for conservative and liberal politicians and how nothing will ever be good enough for a large swath of the left, which is why they are losing the country.
This election is far from a mandate. It's a tepid win, at best. It's OK-ish. What is needed now is for Democrats to double down and work harder but instead we'll get a bunch of "Beto didn't win! politics is mean! I quit." bullshit. I can see it in this thread already and it's why the left will lose in the end. Unless they are willing to put in the work and keep the faith over the long term, which they clearly aren't. Instead everyone is jockeying for their pesronal hobbyhorse to the the one ridden to the finish and if it's not going to be they are going home.
posted by fshgrl at 10:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Sorry, I thought we were discussing the ridiculous double standards for conservative and liberal politicians and how nothing will ever be good enough for a large swath of the left, which is why they are losing the country.
This election is far from a mandate. It's a tepid win, at best. It's OK-ish. What is needed now is for Democrats to double down and work harder but instead we'll get a bunch of "Beto didn't win! politics is mean! I quit." bullshit. I can see it in this thread already and it's why the left will lose in the end. Unless they are willing to put in the work and keep the faith over the long term, which they clearly aren't. Instead everyone is jockeying for their pesronal hobbyhorse to the the one ridden to the finish and if it's not going to be they are going home.
posted by fshgrl at 10:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
So if Steve King has to get back in, is there any way to get him to push his anti-immigrant shit far enough that the hypocritical dairy farmers who vote him in are either destroyed or woken up? Maybe start by sending ICE to the Nunes family farm.
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:14 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
you can call in anonymous tips.
posted by fshgrl at 10:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by fshgrl at 10:15 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
While the vote for felons is heartening, Florida turned out disastrously. Can't believe even Nelson lost. I hope Tester in Montana pulls through. Won't get my hopes up for AZ/NV.
Don't forget that no matter how cartoonishly awful, despicable, stupid etc. Trump appears to be, 2020 is an uphill battle, and the Democrats need to be as tough and as united as the GOP, with a candidate who appeals to electoral votes -- not to maximum idealism. And yet without being "establishment"
posted by knoyers at 10:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Don't forget that no matter how cartoonishly awful, despicable, stupid etc. Trump appears to be, 2020 is an uphill battle, and the Democrats need to be as tough and as united as the GOP, with a candidate who appeals to electoral votes -- not to maximum idealism. And yet without being "establishment"
posted by knoyers at 10:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
The Senate is disappointing but not surprising (though backsliding is pretty disappointing), but we wanted the House and we wanted Governors, and we got both of those.
What's more disappointing is Democratic leadership still trying to govern based on process instead of justice.
posted by Merus at 10:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
What's more disappointing is Democratic leadership still trying to govern based on process instead of justice.
posted by Merus at 10:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
What we need is a different kind of "bipartisanship", between the factions within the Democratic Party, the "Corporate Dems" and the Democratic Socialists. It's not going to be easy, but it is doable.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [9 favorites]
Calling them something less immediately derogatory than âCorporate Demsâ would be a start.
posted by argybarg at 10:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 10:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [22 favorites]
I want the Democratic Party to move as far left as possible and still win majorities. What that might mean with regard to tonight's results I won't really know until I see a breakdown of how many and who showed up at the polls this election.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:21 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
...that's not really a slur when they mostly depend on corporate money and rule in their interests
posted by The Whelk at 10:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 10:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
The Senate is unfixable, and telling people to talk nicer about it isn't going to change that.
It's a pretty common design in democracies to put in some kind of corrective for rural voters, who generally make the food that the country depends on but get easily disenfranchised by the population in the cities.
It's become fashionable for leftists to say that the Senate is rigged against them, but that's by design - you write off the country areas entirely, you start losing elections.
The harder question is how to win back the country areas without compromising on the justice that the left, broadly, wants.
posted by Merus at 10:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
It's a pretty common design in democracies to put in some kind of corrective for rural voters, who generally make the food that the country depends on but get easily disenfranchised by the population in the cities.
It's become fashionable for leftists to say that the Senate is rigged against them, but that's by design - you write off the country areas entirely, you start losing elections.
The harder question is how to win back the country areas without compromising on the justice that the left, broadly, wants.
posted by Merus at 10:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
I don't understand this dire reaction. The GOP's legislative free-for-all is over. The Dems can wield investigatory and oversight powers. The governor pickups were extremely important to prevent more gerrymandering between now and 2020.
It's too bad about the Senate, but that was always a longshot. The close margins in Texas are frustrating, but also promising.
Get through the holidays, blink a few times and we'll be into the run-up to 2020.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [88 favorites]
It's too bad about the Senate, but that was always a longshot. The close margins in Texas are frustrating, but also promising.
Get through the holidays, blink a few times and we'll be into the run-up to 2020.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [88 favorites]
Lets blame Newsom for Newsom, not his ex-wife OK?
Haha, he got together with Guilfoyle when she was married to...his campaign manager! They're all tweaked.
posted by rhizome at 10:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Haha, he got together with Guilfoyle when she was married to...his campaign manager! They're all tweaked.
posted by rhizome at 10:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Can I just say that even with the bits that are disappointing, the feeling of relief that I feel given the terrifying 538 projections that briefly appeared this evening is just amazing.
Reality still sucks.  Herr Twitler is still gonna tweet inanities and drive me into a frothing rage.  The world's still on fire, but even soâŚjust PHEW!  That fear of a total misread of the polls was just heart-stopping and soul-destroying both.  There was no hope before today.  Now there is some.  I'll take that and count it a victory.
Tomorrow, back to work, but tonight, YAY!
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
Reality still sucks.  Herr Twitler is still gonna tweet inanities and drive me into a frothing rage.  The world's still on fire, but even soâŚjust PHEW!  That fear of a total misread of the polls was just heart-stopping and soul-destroying both.  There was no hope before today.  Now there is some.  I'll take that and count it a victory.
Tomorrow, back to work, but tonight, YAY!
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:28 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
I don't understand this dire reaction. The GOP's legislative free-for-all is over. The Dems can wield investigatory and oversight powers. The governor pickups were extremely important to prevent more gerrymandering between now and 2020.
And the Affordable Care Act is effectively safe for another two years. Lives were saved tonight.
posted by Uncle Ira at 10:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [84 favorites]
And the Affordable Care Act is effectively safe for another two years. Lives were saved tonight.
posted by Uncle Ira at 10:29 PM on November 6, 2018 [84 favorites]
WI is going to need to count absentee and whatever other late-count ballots they have; it's too close to call tonight.
And the House can start doing the investigations that have been stalled before now, and if they can put together legislation that actually would work, the Senate will have a hard time justifying denying it.
Increase the inheritance tax, and use the R rhetoric against them - "we're just trying to make sure everyone has the chance to sink or swim on their own merits! No handouts!" Pass the ERA - "no special treatment for men or women! Everyone equal under the law!" Pass health care rights - "no patient shall be required to accept any treatment that serves no medical purpose, and no medical professional is permitted to knowingly lie to any patient about their health." Tie the minimum wage to the inflation index, increase the $$ for exempt employees, and tie that to the inflation index as well, so it automatically increases as prices go up. Give tax breaks to businesses whose highest pay level is no more than 30x the level of the lowest-paid employee; pitch it as "helping small businesses."
Jump on the "no fake news!" bandwagon, and make laws that any publicly-held news media organization that deliberately misleads its viewership (1) loses its license(s), (2) board members can be charged with felonies, and (3) viewers who were deceived can file a claim for damages of some nominal amount--say, up to $500 per offense (per viewer). Push the message, early and solid, that all a company has to do to avoid these problems, is not deliberately lie.
There's a lot the House can do that makes the Senate look like greedy racist misogynist assholes (which, of course, they are, but they really like plausible deniability). Even if they can't get the laws past the Senate, they can get the full text worked out, and show it to the public, and say, "this is the law YOU COULD HAVE if you got rid of That Asshole."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
And the House can start doing the investigations that have been stalled before now, and if they can put together legislation that actually would work, the Senate will have a hard time justifying denying it.
Increase the inheritance tax, and use the R rhetoric against them - "we're just trying to make sure everyone has the chance to sink or swim on their own merits! No handouts!" Pass the ERA - "no special treatment for men or women! Everyone equal under the law!" Pass health care rights - "no patient shall be required to accept any treatment that serves no medical purpose, and no medical professional is permitted to knowingly lie to any patient about their health." Tie the minimum wage to the inflation index, increase the $$ for exempt employees, and tie that to the inflation index as well, so it automatically increases as prices go up. Give tax breaks to businesses whose highest pay level is no more than 30x the level of the lowest-paid employee; pitch it as "helping small businesses."
Jump on the "no fake news!" bandwagon, and make laws that any publicly-held news media organization that deliberately misleads its viewership (1) loses its license(s), (2) board members can be charged with felonies, and (3) viewers who were deceived can file a claim for damages of some nominal amount--say, up to $500 per offense (per viewer). Push the message, early and solid, that all a company has to do to avoid these problems, is not deliberately lie.
There's a lot the House can do that makes the Senate look like greedy racist misogynist assholes (which, of course, they are, but they really like plausible deniability). Even if they can't get the laws past the Senate, they can get the full text worked out, and show it to the public, and say, "this is the law YOU COULD HAVE if you got rid of That Asshole."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
OK. But the results right now look like 2016 on steroids, meaning the rural-urban divide got a lot worse, which translated to a Senate blowout.
It wasnât a Senate blowout. Theyâre forecast to pick up two seats. That gives them a slightly stronger majority than they had previously, but only barely. They already had a majority so our position there hasnât changed. It wasnât â2016 on steroidsâ by any stretch of the imagination.
I mean seriously, what would qualify as a win to you, if winning back the House and flipping what, 5 governors to D wasnât it? You act like the secret police are gonna come break down the door tomorrow because we didnât flip the Senate.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
It wasnât a Senate blowout. Theyâre forecast to pick up two seats. That gives them a slightly stronger majority than they had previously, but only barely. They already had a majority so our position there hasnât changed. It wasnât â2016 on steroidsâ by any stretch of the imagination.
I mean seriously, what would qualify as a win to you, if winning back the House and flipping what, 5 governors to D wasnât it? You act like the secret police are gonna come break down the door tomorrow because we didnât flip the Senate.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [24 favorites]
It's become fashionable for leftists to say that the Senate is rigged against them, but that's by design - you write off the country areas entirely, you start losing elections.
Well it is rigged, and the Senate is an undemocratic institution, but you can't write off any areas because of the huge gains we've seen running on progressive and socialist issues in traditionally "red" areas and then having big turnouts for them. We seek the liberation of all people, there should be no place we consider unwinnable- except maybe the ghetto of west hampton.
posted by The Whelk at 10:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
It's a pretty common design in democracies to put in some kind of corrective for rural voters, who generally make the food that the country depends on but get easily disenfranchised by the population in the cities.
42% of crop production in the U.S. comes from just 3% of U.S. farms according to the USDA. These are not mom-and-pop operations, these are corporations bringing in millions of dollars a year.
And as many of 50% of the people actually "making the food the country depends on" are undocumented farmworkers who work dangerous, underpaid jobs and who Republicans fight to keep disenfranchised, unsafe and living in fear.
posted by rogerrogerwhatsyourrvectorvicto at 10:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
42% of crop production in the U.S. comes from just 3% of U.S. farms according to the USDA. These are not mom-and-pop operations, these are corporations bringing in millions of dollars a year.
And as many of 50% of the people actually "making the food the country depends on" are undocumented farmworkers who work dangerous, underpaid jobs and who Republicans fight to keep disenfranchised, unsafe and living in fear.
posted by rogerrogerwhatsyourrvectorvicto at 10:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [58 favorites]
Winning the House means we can stop a lot of shit, and investigate a lot of other shit.
Could have been better, but I'll take it over the worst case scenario.
posted by Windopaene at 10:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
Could have been better, but I'll take it over the worst case scenario.
posted by Windopaene at 10:33 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
WI race. 98% reporting and Evers just pulled back into the lead. A mere 122 votes separating them.
posted by acidnova at 10:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by acidnova at 10:34 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I'm watchiing Jon Ralston and co do their live broadcasting out of Nevada right now. (right here if you want to join). I missed a bit but... he just said that the Washoe early vote results are "devastating" for Republicans. So that's a good sign.
Sending Rosen my energy.
posted by Justinian at 10:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Sending Rosen my energy.
posted by Justinian at 10:35 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Maxine Waters just became Chair of the House Financial Services Committee.
Elijah Cummings just became Chair of the House Government Oversight Committee.
Adam Schiff just became Chair of the House Intelligence Comittee.
I call that a win.
posted by joedan at 10:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [146 favorites]
Elijah Cummings just became Chair of the House Government Oversight Committee.
Adam Schiff just became Chair of the House Intelligence Comittee.
I call that a win.
posted by joedan at 10:37 PM on November 6, 2018 [146 favorites]
I'd be interested in seeing a vote breakdown by age cohort and some demographic/linguistic population growth projections in Texas and the other "urban/rural divide" states before we assume the only answer is an "army of Manchins." That may be a very shortsighted view.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
So much this...
Investigation time.
posted by Windopaene at 10:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Investigation time.
posted by Windopaene at 10:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
More news from MI:
Mike Bishop is out and I can't stop smiling!
posted by MaritaCov at 10:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Mike Bishop is out and I can't stop smiling!
posted by MaritaCov at 10:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
Tester's ahead by 330 votes, 53% reporting.
This dumb goddamned country.
edit: now rosendale's ahead, of course
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
This dumb goddamned country.
edit: now rosendale's ahead, of course
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:40 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Missoula is still out, guys. Don't write off Tester.
posted by Justinian at 10:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 10:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Hey gang! I know we did not run the table tonight but we're not done. I'm having one more drink and going to bed. Had a cute older couple from Dallas in the pub tonight. They wanted to watch the politics so I put one of the TVs on CNN and we had a nice chat. They were clearly on the right, I'm pretty lefty, everything went swell.
The dust on tonight won't settle for a while. And now that these midterms are over, a certain investigation might reveal whom else they have flipped. Or new charges might be brought. We have more than a puncher's chance now.
Here in mass I'm tempted to call in to the Howie Carr show tomorrow just to say LIZ WARREN KICKED ASS YOU HACK.
posted by vrakatar at 10:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
The dust on tonight won't settle for a while. And now that these midterms are over, a certain investigation might reveal whom else they have flipped. Or new charges might be brought. We have more than a puncher's chance now.
Here in mass I'm tempted to call in to the Howie Carr show tomorrow just to say LIZ WARREN KICKED ASS YOU HACK.
posted by vrakatar at 10:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Fixing the Senate: Add Puerto Rico, Guam, and DC as states. I'd love to say, "and split California into 2-3 states," but there's considerably less process for that; it's not going to happen. Push those new D states at the National Popular Vote initiative, and at automatic statewide voting registration and early voting options. Start pushing them towards election day being a state holiday, which helps younger, progressive voters.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yeah, the Senate is fucked.
I'm not inherently opposed to the concept of the Senate.  I was taught that in many ways the Constitution is there to protect the minority from a tyranny of the majority, and the Senate's always seemed to fit that idea pretty well.  I don't know the solution to our current problems, but it feels like the Senate procedures that have developed over the years have exacerbated that protection to a level that now feels like the minority is holding the rest of us hostage to their demands.
I feel like a Senate run on a more explicitly democratic basis would help restore the balance since at the least it'd help reduce the gridlock, but I'm not an expert at the politics involved.  There may be other reasons that might fail.  But as it stands now, man, it's just a nonstop wrench in the works of government.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm not inherently opposed to the concept of the Senate.  I was taught that in many ways the Constitution is there to protect the minority from a tyranny of the majority, and the Senate's always seemed to fit that idea pretty well.  I don't know the solution to our current problems, but it feels like the Senate procedures that have developed over the years have exacerbated that protection to a level that now feels like the minority is holding the rest of us hostage to their demands.
I feel like a Senate run on a more explicitly democratic basis would help restore the balance since at the least it'd help reduce the gridlock, but I'm not an expert at the politics involved.  There may be other reasons that might fail.  But as it stands now, man, it's just a nonstop wrench in the works of government.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Abrams seems pretty confident it's going to a runoff despite Kemp being currently above 50%.
posted by chris24 at 10:44 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by chris24 at 10:44 PM on November 6, 2018
Duncan Hunter got re-elected. Good God Above. WTF.
posted by fshgrl at 10:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by fshgrl at 10:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Redistricting reform was on the ballot in Colorado, Michigan, and Missouri and has been approved in all three.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:45 PM on November 6, 2018 [32 favorites]
I was taught that in many ways the Constitution is there to protect the minority from a tyranny of the majority, and the Senate's always seemed to fit that idea pretty well
Seems like the Founders maybe should have spent less time on protecting the minority from a tyranny of the majority and more time on protecting the majority from a tyranny of the minority. đ¤ˇ
posted by Justinian at 10:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Seems like the Founders maybe should have spent less time on protecting the minority from a tyranny of the majority and more time on protecting the majority from a tyranny of the minority. đ¤ˇ
posted by Justinian at 10:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
And Don Young is leading in Alaska. The man who told Nixon he should "burn the tapes" .
Also he's been noticeably senile for a decade. Grar.
posted by fshgrl at 10:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Also he's been noticeably senile for a decade. Grar.
posted by fshgrl at 10:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The Senate is fucked for a number of reasons. Not the least of which is the current GOP leadership which has abused Sneate norms to get what they want, regardless of the norms.
Fuck Mitch McConnell
posted by Windopaene at 10:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Fuck Mitch McConnell
posted by Windopaene at 10:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
Seems like the Founders maybe should have spent less time on protecting the minority from a tyranny of the majority and more time on protecting the majority from a tyranny of the minority.
Maybe they should have been less focused on owning the minority.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
Maybe they should have been less focused on owning the minority.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [26 favorites]
The founders were okay with slavery, too. They did some good stuff, and some not good stuff. Probably best to focus more on what we need now.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:47 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
One thing we can do with our control of the house is...you know...legislate.
Start feeding Trump and the Senate so many goddamn bills that they feel like an ATM. Make those assholes work for a living. And investigate the shit out of them and find out what ties they have to the NRA and Russia and all that mess.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Start feeding Trump and the Senate so many goddamn bills that they feel like an ATM. Make those assholes work for a living. And investigate the shit out of them and find out what ties they have to the NRA and Russia and all that mess.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [19 favorites]
Anything to get America closer to a direct democracy is revolutionary and the Founders can eat my ass.
posted by The Whelk at 10:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 10:49 PM on November 6, 2018 [33 favorites]
Nate Silver speculates that the Bob "bribe me" Menendez at the top of the ticket is hurting NJ House candidates and compares the overperformance of Democrats in New York where Gillibrand is on the ballot instead of Bob "no, really, give me the money" Menendez
That's definitely what the local Republicans thought. There were "Fire Menendez" yard signs everywhere, fucking thickets of them. Every negative ad had his name.
However, the Dem ads also used Menendez' name, so ... they probably thought otherwise. It's quite plausible that his corruption just was not as important as other factors, in the year 2018, it was pretty small potatoes. And if I'm reading right the results overall are bluer than previous years. So I'm skeptical that it mattered much.
Shout-out to my district NJ-07! It's been red for literally decades. I'm pretty sure this is an example of the wealthy suburbs swinging blue, if anyone's interested.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
That's definitely what the local Republicans thought. There were "Fire Menendez" yard signs everywhere, fucking thickets of them. Every negative ad had his name.
However, the Dem ads also used Menendez' name, so ... they probably thought otherwise. It's quite plausible that his corruption just was not as important as other factors, in the year 2018, it was pretty small potatoes. And if I'm reading right the results overall are bluer than previous years. So I'm skeptical that it mattered much.
Shout-out to my district NJ-07! It's been red for literally decades. I'm pretty sure this is an example of the wealthy suburbs swinging blue, if anyone's interested.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
The Founders would be like, âItâs been 240 years since we wrote the Constitution, and we wrote it specifically so that it could be amended. Stop blaming us for your bullshit and fix it yourselves! Weâre dead! This is your job now!â
posted by Autumnheart at 10:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [94 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 10:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [94 favorites]
We use the House like a blue bat with nails driven through it, hobbling and maiming any GOP initiatives and concentrating on movement building for 2020.
More specifically: investigate the shit out of Trump, for 21 months. Start impeachment proceedings immediately after Labor Day in 2020, and draw them out so that the final vote to impeach Trump comes about a week before election day.
You'll never convict in the Senate anyway, so don't even give them a chance. Just head into election day with "Trump Impeached!" headlines everywhere, and Republicans trying to spin that it's not really that bad.
posted by msalt at 10:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
More specifically: investigate the shit out of Trump, for 21 months. Start impeachment proceedings immediately after Labor Day in 2020, and draw them out so that the final vote to impeach Trump comes about a week before election day.
You'll never convict in the Senate anyway, so don't even give them a chance. Just head into election day with "Trump Impeached!" headlines everywhere, and Republicans trying to spin that it's not really that bad.
posted by msalt at 10:52 PM on November 6, 2018 [12 favorites]
The Founders would be like, âItâs been 240 years since we wrote the Constitution, and we wrote it specifically so that it could be amended. Stop blaming us for your bullshit and fix it yourselves! Weâre dead! This is your job now!â
The same people they gave inordinate power to are the ones who have to agree to modify it to reduce their own power! That's insane!
I feel like this debate could make for a great American Chopper Argues meme.
posted by Justinian at 10:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
The same people they gave inordinate power to are the ones who have to agree to modify it to reduce their own power! That's insane!
I feel like this debate could make for a great American Chopper Argues meme.
posted by Justinian at 10:53 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Anything to get America closer to a direct democracy is revolutionary and the Founders can eat my ass.
The USA is an inherently reactionary state built upon a mountain of innocent human bones, electoralism alone will never produce real progress, and the Founders can eat. my. ass.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
The USA is an inherently reactionary state built upon a mountain of innocent human bones, electoralism alone will never produce real progress, and the Founders can eat. my. ass.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
... with 98% in, Evers (D) just took something like a 50 vote lead (!) over the evil Walker (R) in WI GOV.
That's pure bedlam. Imagine the recount.
posted by Justinian at 10:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
That's pure bedlam. Imagine the recount.
posted by Justinian at 10:55 PM on November 6, 2018 [16 favorites]
The same people they gave inordinate power to are the ones who have to agree to modify it to reduce their own power! That's insane!
And yet itâs been done over two dozen times! The last one was ratified in 1992. Itâs not like we used up all our chances and canât do it anymore.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
And yet itâs been done over two dozen times! The last one was ratified in 1992. Itâs not like we used up all our chances and canât do it anymore.
posted by Autumnheart at 10:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
Evers has over 600 votes lead!
posted by acidnova at 10:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by acidnova at 10:58 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
The Milwaukee absentees came in big for Evers (D)!! I think he's gonna take it!
posted by Justinian at 10:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 10:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
BREAKING: Of the outstanding @cityofmilwaukee votes, 38,674 went to @Tony4WI while 7,181 went to @ScottWalker. That should mean a win for Evers.
I couldn't actually go to bed you guys
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 10:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
I couldn't actually go to bed you guys
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 10:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [44 favorites]
POOSH CART
posted by vrakatar at 10:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 10:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
And Jon Ralston on the stream is a hair from declaring Heller (R) toast! Things are ending on a high note tonight at least between NV and WI.
posted by Justinian at 11:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:00 PM on November 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
AP calls SC-01 for D Cunningham.
posted by chris24 at 11:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 11:02 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
PA legislature: Pending recounts (there were a couple of very close races), looks like Dems picked up 5 Senate seats, and 9 House seats. Neither of which flips the chamber, although we break the GOP supermajority in the Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Abrams is refusing to concede in Georgia and is currently spitting hot fire, as she should. It's hard to see her winning, but the conflict of interest of Kemp as Secretary of State and candidate for governor has been a huge gaping wound to the democratic process in Georgia.
Abrams is calling for "all votes to be counted" which could mean waiting for absentee votes, or it could mean waiting for provisional ballots. It could also mean a legal battle to make sure all votes were actually counted. Maybe she even has some legal route to challenge Kemp's administration of the election generally. I don't know.
What I do know that Kemp's reign as SoS has been marked by a concerted effort to shrink the voter rolls and serious security issues which he has absolutely refused to address. By any objective measure his tenure has been a failure. Even just as a small example, my precinct didn't have enough login cards. (The electronic voting machines that Georgia uses requires a card which poll workers key to your voter ID, and which then erases and can be reused after you cast your ballot.) This meant long lines of people who had to wait for someone to finish voting and turn their card in before they were able to vote.
That's just one small example of what a complete waste of space Kemp has been as SoS. Again, he abused his office in myriad other ways, including lobbing completely unfounded accusations of hacking against the Abrams campaign. I had the pleasure of voting for Abrams as my state representative for years, so I know she's a smart and resourceful legislator. I hope she uses every legal challenge available against Kemp.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
Abrams is calling for "all votes to be counted" which could mean waiting for absentee votes, or it could mean waiting for provisional ballots. It could also mean a legal battle to make sure all votes were actually counted. Maybe she even has some legal route to challenge Kemp's administration of the election generally. I don't know.
What I do know that Kemp's reign as SoS has been marked by a concerted effort to shrink the voter rolls and serious security issues which he has absolutely refused to address. By any objective measure his tenure has been a failure. Even just as a small example, my precinct didn't have enough login cards. (The electronic voting machines that Georgia uses requires a card which poll workers key to your voter ID, and which then erases and can be reused after you cast your ballot.) This meant long lines of people who had to wait for someone to finish voting and turn their card in before they were able to vote.
That's just one small example of what a complete waste of space Kemp has been as SoS. Again, he abused his office in myriad other ways, including lobbing completely unfounded accusations of hacking against the Abrams campaign. I had the pleasure of voting for Abrams as my state representative for years, so I know she's a smart and resourceful legislator. I hope she uses every legal challenge available against Kemp.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:03 PM on November 6, 2018 [60 favorites]
I'm telling you guys, wait for Missoula to come in before making a judgment on Tester (D). I can't tell you he will win but I can tell you that we don't currently know he is losing.
posted by Justinian at 11:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:04 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
One of the things that troubles me tonight is that FL and GA (and maybe even TX) were legally rigged, and there is a time to rise up against a legally rigged election and a time to suck it up and try to ensure that the next one won't be rigged, but I honestly don't know what the right option is. Because there is no real precedent for a popular arising to demand that a state holds free elections -- as opposed to an arising to negate free elections in the South, which actually happened -- but I don't know if waiting for the next time is enough, because chances are the next time will be the same.
posted by holgate at 11:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by holgate at 11:05 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
BREAKING: Of the outstanding @cityofmilwaukee votes, 38,674 went to @Tony4WI while 7,181 went to @ScottWalker. That should mean a win for Evers.
So does that mean that even though Milwaukee County reported 100% in quite some time ago, these votes were not included? When will they be included in the official results? I am freaking out, man. Can I go to bed pretty confident that Evers won, or is it still really uncertain? Thanks for talking me down.
posted by tllaya at 11:05 PM on November 6, 2018
So does that mean that even though Milwaukee County reported 100% in quite some time ago, these votes were not included? When will they be included in the official results? I am freaking out, man. Can I go to bed pretty confident that Evers won, or is it still really uncertain? Thanks for talking me down.
posted by tllaya at 11:05 PM on November 6, 2018
Came to say what everyone else said, Evers looks to be ahead by 22,000 votes. I think. Iâm really tired, fuck yeah Milwaukee.
Goodbye Walker and good riddance. You fucking fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 11:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
Goodbye Walker and good riddance. You fucking fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 11:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [25 favorites]
They suck at governance. That's a fact that isn't up for debate.
"The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it."
â P. J. O'Rourke
posted by kirkaracha at 11:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
"The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it."
â P. J. O'Rourke
posted by kirkaracha at 11:06 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
That's pure bedlam. Imagine the recount.
Blehhh. Flashbacks to Franken vs. Coleman and Dayton vs. Emmer. Nothing like waiting 7 fucking months to find out who your senator is.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Blehhh. Flashbacks to Franken vs. Coleman and Dayton vs. Emmer. Nothing like waiting 7 fucking months to find out who your senator is.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:07 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm telling you guys, wait for Missoula to come in before making a judgment on Tester (D). I can't tell you he will win but I can tell you that we don't currently know he is losing.
It's true that the vast majority of the remaining 40ish% precincts are in the missoula and bozeman environs and the NYT tracker still firmly thinks Tester will pull through, however I just can't be optimistic until I see my big flat-topped boy's name ahead again.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:08 PM on November 6, 2018
It's true that the vast majority of the remaining 40ish% precincts are in the missoula and bozeman environs and the NYT tracker still firmly thinks Tester will pull through, however I just can't be optimistic until I see my big flat-topped boy's name ahead again.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:08 PM on November 6, 2018
Re: Heller (R) vs Rosen (D) in NV.
"I think those races are over." -Jon Ralston
that's the first blue flip in the Senate of the cycle. Let's hold out hope for one more in AZ.
posted by Justinian at 11:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
"I think those races are over." -Jon Ralston
that's the first blue flip in the Senate of the cycle. Let's hold out hope for one more in AZ.
posted by Justinian at 11:09 PM on November 6, 2018 [7 favorites]
Dems like Pelosi that prate about bipartisanship have the same bat held very close to their faces.
I would normally take exception to this sentiment, but we're living in interesting times, more specifically a time in which the status quo ante of bipartisanship (which never really existed quite the way she describes) that Nancy Pelosi seems to want so much is simply not possible given the attitude of the clowns that make up the Republican Party today. They refuse to govern, and since we apparently can't charge and convict them of their mal-/mis-/nonfeasance of office despite their frequent admissions of guilt, the only option is to sideline them the way the minority party is in parliamentary systems.
posted by wierdo at 11:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
I would normally take exception to this sentiment, but we're living in interesting times, more specifically a time in which the status quo ante of bipartisanship (which never really existed quite the way she describes) that Nancy Pelosi seems to want so much is simply not possible given the attitude of the clowns that make up the Republican Party today. They refuse to govern, and since we apparently can't charge and convict them of their mal-/mis-/nonfeasance of office despite their frequent admissions of guilt, the only option is to sideline them the way the minority party is in parliamentary systems.
posted by wierdo at 11:10 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
And the democrat is losing the governor's race in CT? I don't know much about that race, but you would think it was the democrat's to lose
posted by knoyers at 11:11 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by knoyers at 11:11 PM on November 6, 2018
More specifically: Clark and Washoe counties are in (Las Vegas and Reno), and Rosen leads by 63,000 votes out of 720,000. The remaining counties are red but have tiny populations. Latest totals are here.
posted by msalt at 11:12 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by msalt at 11:12 PM on November 6, 2018
Right now Evers is up 1.3% per NBC, outside recount territory.
posted by chris24 at 11:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 11:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
The current Connecticut Democratic governor is really unpopular.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
@RalstonReports: Rosen and Sisolak are going to win.
If Ralston is calling it, I trust him. Hot damn.
I spent a bunch of time texting NV, feeling like it wasn't a great use of time. I'm very pleased to be wrong about that. The Reid machine had another one in it.
posted by zachlipton at 11:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
If Ralston is calling it, I trust him. Hot damn.
I spent a bunch of time texting NV, feeling like it wasn't a great use of time. I'm very pleased to be wrong about that. The Reid machine had another one in it.
posted by zachlipton at 11:13 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Is 22K out of recount territory?
AP currently has Evers (D) up by 1.14% which would be outside the recount threshold.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
AP currently has Evers (D) up by 1.14% which would be outside the recount threshold.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:16 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
As a Reno resident, following national politics for the last few hours, Nevada results are making me feel real good right now.
posted by memento maury at 11:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by memento maury at 11:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Nailbiter watch: Russia's favorite Congressman Dana Rohrbacher is currently down by 600 votes with 63% reporting.
posted by joedan at 11:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by joedan at 11:18 PM on November 6, 2018 [17 favorites]
âTony Evers leads by 1.2 percentage points, or 30,859 votes, over Scott Walker with 99 percent of precincts reporting.â
I canât math and donât ow where 22k came from so take everything I say with a grain of salt. I saw less than 1% as the recount zone. Donât know how correct that is.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 11:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
I canât math and donât ow where 22k came from so take everything I say with a grain of salt. I saw less than 1% as the recount zone. Donât know how correct that is.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 11:20 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Some CA ballot prop updates. There's still a lot of the vote left to count, but these seem like decently safe calls at this point:
Prop 5 (institute feudalism let people transfer their near-zero property taxes around however they want) is going down, currently 42-57
Prop 6 (repeal the gas tax and completely screw up the state's transportation funding) is trailng 45-55, though I'd want to drill down a bit more to be entirely confident that will hold
Prop 7 (repeal daylight saving time, except not really because it needs the state legislature and then the feds and it's complicated) seems to be quite popular, up 61-38.
Prop 10 (rent control) going down, currently 36-64 (NBC and CNN have called this as a no)
The affordable housing bond (prop 1) is still fairly close.
But hey, it seems like we just voted to literally change time itself. As Gov. Brown said in his signing statement, and if you're not a morning person anyway, "fiat lux!"
posted by zachlipton at 11:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Prop 5 (
Prop 6 (repeal the gas tax and completely screw up the state's transportation funding) is trailng 45-55, though I'd want to drill down a bit more to be entirely confident that will hold
Prop 7 (repeal daylight saving time, except not really because it needs the state legislature and then the feds and it's complicated) seems to be quite popular, up 61-38.
Prop 10 (rent control) going down, currently 36-64 (NBC and CNN have called this as a no)
The affordable housing bond (prop 1) is still fairly close.
But hey, it seems like we just voted to literally change time itself. As Gov. Brown said in his signing statement, and if you're not a morning person anyway, "fiat lux!"
posted by zachlipton at 11:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Searched "north carolina" above and didn't see a mention of the big news here:
1) we elected Anita Earls to the NC supreme court, giving Dems a 5-2 advantage there, and
2) we broke the GOP supermajorities in *both* state houses, getting rid of some odious politicians in the process, which means the governor's veto is back in play as a political tool.
North Carolina still has a long way to get back to where it was before the GOP wrecked things, but it's a much better state today than it was yesterday. Both of the above will be big blocks against further right-wing lunacy getting entrenched here.
[Edit: missed the previous Anita Earls mention, sorry]
posted by mediareport at 11:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
1) we elected Anita Earls to the NC supreme court, giving Dems a 5-2 advantage there, and
2) we broke the GOP supermajorities in *both* state houses, getting rid of some odious politicians in the process, which means the governor's veto is back in play as a political tool.
North Carolina still has a long way to get back to where it was before the GOP wrecked things, but it's a much better state today than it was yesterday. Both of the above will be big blocks against further right-wing lunacy getting entrenched here.
[Edit: missed the previous Anita Earls mention, sorry]
posted by mediareport at 11:22 PM on November 6, 2018 [38 favorites]
Dem gain in AZ-02 (McSally's old seat), as Ann Kirkpatrick wins.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:23 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
ME-02 with 68% reporting is a dead heat with D-Golden about 100 votes ahead of spineless incumbent R-Poliquin
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
CNN has officially called Nevada for Rosen (D)!
posted by Justinian at 11:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:24 PM on November 6, 2018 [27 favorites]
...that's not really a slur when they mostly depend on corporate money and rule in their interests
It's no wonder so many people sit on their hands due to that faction if that ridiculously cartoonish description of their position is widely shared on the left. Describing part of your own party that way is..I don't even have a good word.
Disagreement about the means to our shared ends does not make the people who disagree with you Republicans.
posted by wierdo at 11:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
It's no wonder so many people sit on their hands due to that faction if that ridiculously cartoonish description of their position is widely shared on the left. Describing part of your own party that way is..I don't even have a good word.
Disagreement about the means to our shared ends does not make the people who disagree with you Republicans.
posted by wierdo at 11:25 PM on November 6, 2018 [10 favorites]
NY Times calling it for Evers!
posted by acidnova at 11:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by acidnova at 11:27 PM on November 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
just listened to 30-year incumbent Rohrbacher compare himself as David to the CA Democratic Party's Goliath, because they out-fundraised him.
he was practically whining.
at the moment, he's down a few hundred votes. please, please don't let the door hit ya, you shit weasel.
posted by ApathyGirl at 11:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
he was practically whining.
at the moment, he's down a few hundred votes. please, please don't let the door hit ya, you shit weasel.
posted by ApathyGirl at 11:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [14 favorites]
Yeah, Rosen is still up by 55,000 votes in Nevada, and the only uncounted votes left are Carson City (county and city? likely Dem anyway) and 3 counties: Lyon, Mineral, and Elko. I don't think there are 55,000 total residents combined in Lyon, Mineral and Elko counties.
OK, I looked it up. Mineral county has 4,000 residents. Lyon and Elko have about 50,000 voters each. But the odds that Heller gets 55K net votes out of the 104,000 total residents in those counties are very, very slim.
posted by msalt at 11:30 PM on November 6, 2018
OK, I looked it up. Mineral county has 4,000 residents. Lyon and Elko have about 50,000 voters each. But the odds that Heller gets 55K net votes out of the 104,000 total residents in those counties are very, very slim.
posted by msalt at 11:30 PM on November 6, 2018
Wisconsin is a big win. It turns the governor picture from "mediocre given expectations, spun as bad for Democrats" to "okay, maybe spun as okay".
posted by Justinian at 11:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:30 PM on November 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Oh, and in San Francisco, it looks like Prop C is going to pass, something around ~60% of the vote right now. This is a measure that taxes the largest businesses in the city to raise $250M/year for desperately needed services to address the homeless crisis. It became a huge fight in the home stretch when Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff backed the measure, pouring substantial resources into the campaign and picking fights with Twitter/Square CEO Jack Dorsey, who was vehemently opposed.
Advocates were hoping for a 2/3rds majority, which would help protect against a legal challenge that would tie up the money for an extended period of time (it's complicated, but there's a dispute at the moment as to how many votes you need to pass these kinds of tax measures in CA). That doesn't look super likely, but Benioff says he's on board with a legal team if necessary.
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Advocates were hoping for a 2/3rds majority, which would help protect against a legal challenge that would tie up the money for an extended period of time (it's complicated, but there's a dispute at the moment as to how many votes you need to pass these kinds of tax measures in CA). That doesn't look super likely, but Benioff says he's on board with a legal team if necessary.
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 PM on November 6, 2018 [20 favorites]
Yeah, Iowa was disappointing, but Wisconsin is a big one.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 PM on November 6, 2018
Alabama and West Virginia both passed anti-abortion constitutional amendments. In Alabama the amendment will make it state policy to "recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, including the right to life" and state that no provisions of the constitution provide a right to an abortion or require funding of abortions. West Virginia's amendment echos the latter part stating "nothing in this Constitution secures or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion."
The upside is that Oregon rejected Measure 106 which would have banned state funding of abortions.
posted by peeedro at 11:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
The upside is that Oregon rejected Measure 106 which would have banned state funding of abortions.
posted by peeedro at 11:38 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Iowa wasnât a total loss, though. They went from having one D and three R representatives, to the reverse. Hopefully that means Kingâs influence can be blunted and weakened. (Possibly assisted by his increasing downward spiral into crazy town.)
posted by Autumnheart at 11:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 11:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
@Taniel: A new Democratic trifecta: Dems gain control of the Nevada government by flipping the governorship, per @RalstonReports. Dems' 6th new trifecta today (CO, IL, ME, NM, NY) on top of NJ & WA last year.
Overall, that's 6 state legislative chambers flipped D so far (none flipped R).
posted by zachlipton at 11:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Overall, that's 6 state legislative chambers flipped D so far (none flipped R).
posted by zachlipton at 11:39 PM on November 6, 2018 [18 favorites]
Man, the California Tossup races are all about 50/50. This may take days.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:41 PM on November 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
MJ Hegar, she of the fantastic "Doors" ad, looks to have lost to John Carter (R) in Texas-31, 50.7 to 47.6 with 99% reporting.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:42 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
No, I checked, and there are still pretzels in the kitchen.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:43 PM on November 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
State Legislatures:
Jessica Postposted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 11:44 PM on November 6, 2018 [30 favorites]
@JessicaPost
Here is our 2 am roundup:
7 Chambers Flipped blue:
CO Senate
MN House
NH House
NH Senate
ME Senate
NY Senate
WA Senate (Nov 2017)
New supermajorities:
OR Senate
OR House
Broken supermajorities:
NC Senate
NC House
MI Senate
PA Senate
So TX-23 has gotten weird. AP and everybody else called it ages and ages ago for Hurd (R) to keep his seat. Like, he gave a victory speech and has presumably gone to bed.
Except with 100% of the precincts reporting, Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is up by 282 votes.
It's possible there are more votes out there somewhere, but this clearly shouldn't have been called so early, and has turned into one of the closest races in the country. NYT is going to uncall it.
posted by zachlipton at 11:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Except with 100% of the precincts reporting, Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is up by 282 votes.
It's possible there are more votes out there somewhere, but this clearly shouldn't have been called so early, and has turned into one of the closest races in the country. NYT is going to uncall it.
posted by zachlipton at 11:46 PM on November 6, 2018 [52 favorites]
Fuck yeah!
posted by fshgrl at 11:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by fshgrl at 11:48 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
zachlipton: "@Redistrict#GA07: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) defeats Rep. Rob Woodall (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 51%-45% for Trump in 2016 and @CookPolitical considers this an upset for Democrats."
So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Except with 100% of the precincts reporting, Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is up by 282 votes.
It's possible there are more votes out there somewhere, but this clearly shouldn't have been called so early, and has turned into one of the closest races in the country.
Apparently there is one precinct left to report in Medina County, which is heavily Republican. Ortiz Jones could still pull it out, though.
posted by mightygodking at 11:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
It's possible there are more votes out there somewhere, but this clearly shouldn't have been called so early, and has turned into one of the closest races in the country.
Apparently there is one precinct left to report in Medina County, which is heavily Republican. Ortiz Jones could still pull it out, though.
posted by mightygodking at 11:50 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?
They had a tabulation error and Woodall went up by a bit and NBC's call was pulled.
posted by chris24 at 11:51 PM on November 6, 2018
They had a tabulation error and Woodall went up by a bit and NBC's call was pulled.
posted by chris24 at 11:51 PM on November 6, 2018
So...NYT shows Woodall winning by about 700 votes?
Georgia Secretary of State (sigh) now has Woodall up by 3,600. I think Wasserman called this race too early (a tabulation error, again, WTF Georgia, would explain that). Seems like Woodall keeps the seat unless there's a pile of votes sitting around somewhere.
posted by zachlipton at 11:53 PM on November 6, 2018
Georgia Secretary of State (sigh) now has Woodall up by 3,600. I think Wasserman called this race too early (a tabulation error, again, WTF Georgia, would explain that). Seems like Woodall keeps the seat unless there's a pile of votes sitting around somewhere.
posted by zachlipton at 11:53 PM on November 6, 2018
Conceding is not a legal act.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:54 PM on November 6, 2018 [13 favorites]
GA-06 seems like it could be recount-worthy, though? Handel up 57 votes out of about 300k.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:55 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 11:55 PM on November 6, 2018
I just read on DailyKos that Evers won WI. As a former resident and UW Madison alum, I can't be more thrilled. Too bad about Iron Stash, but you can't have everything.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 11:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 11:56 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Where would you put it?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:57 PM on November 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
Thatâs what I remember too. IIRC the election board issues a certificate of election and thatâs what officially formalizes the results. Conceding is basically good sportsmanship. Itâs not a binding agreement.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:57 PM on November 6, 2018
posted by Autumnheart at 11:57 PM on November 6, 2018
I read that Trump called Pelosi to congratulate her. That seems like an awfully un-Trump thing to do.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Autumnheart at 11:59 PM on November 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
And an update near and dear to my heart.
@baseballot: The ballot measures to expand Medicaid have passed in Idaho and Nebraska. Utah's currently leads as well, but Montana's measure to extend its current Medicaid expansion looks like it's going down to defeat.
posted by zachlipton at 12:01 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
@baseballot: The ballot measures to expand Medicaid have passed in Idaho and Nebraska. Utah's currently leads as well, but Montana's measure to extend its current Medicaid expansion looks like it's going down to defeat.
posted by zachlipton at 12:01 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Mason County, WA. Sigh. Our state leg. district 35 "democrat" Sheldon (caucused with Republicans to deny dems control when he was the swing vote in the past and is majority funded by R;s) beat our real dem candidate (who turned down multiple dem volunteers, why?) . Ballot measures: people oppose taxes but are ok with police accountability and gun background checks etc. This is the red-purple part of the blue part of the blue state. 150-500 voters changing their mind or 1000 new voters would be a revolution here.
My take-away: wins are wins, and we won a bunch of things that are useful. Voting is great, but we also need non-violent action. Every camp and detension center should know they are abominations, every NAACP and ACLU lawyer should have the funds to pursue justice for the unfree and unfair aspects of our election system. every call for mutual support should be met by crowds, by funds, by moral support among our peers who are otherwise tuned out.
Educate, Organize, Fight Back
and, uh, lets vote out McConells before Manchins... and lets vote them both out soon.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 12:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
My take-away: wins are wins, and we won a bunch of things that are useful. Voting is great, but we also need non-violent action. Every camp and detension center should know they are abominations, every NAACP and ACLU lawyer should have the funds to pursue justice for the unfree and unfair aspects of our election system. every call for mutual support should be met by crowds, by funds, by moral support among our peers who are otherwise tuned out.
Educate, Organize, Fight Back
and, uh, lets vote out McConells before Manchins... and lets vote them both out soon.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 12:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Beto spillover continues to bear fruit:
Make that 12 Texas House seats Dems gained tonight. Democrat Gina Calanni has ousted @RepSchofield by ... 49 votes, per Harris County clerk's office
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [29 favorites]
Make that 12 Texas House seats Dems gained tonight. Democrat Gina Calanni has ousted @RepSchofield by ... 49 votes, per Harris County clerk's office
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [29 favorites]
Gavin Newsomâs ex-wife is Kim Guilfoyle, who recently
Gavin and Guilfoyle... are we talking HBO's TV show Silicon Valley? Is this real life?
posted by pwnguin at 12:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Gavin and Guilfoyle... are we talking HBO's TV show Silicon Valley? Is this real life?
posted by pwnguin at 12:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Under the radar victories:
- Dem sweep in New Mexico
- breaking supermajorities in both North Carolina houses, coupled with Democratic governor, is huge for redistricting. Also, voters soundly rejected a measure to take away the governor's ability to appoint election board members and give it to the (Republican) legislature.
- Oregon's Democratic governor won big, against predictions, all conservative ballot measures failed and Democrats won supermajorities in both houses.
- In Colorado, Democrats win governor, flipped a congressional seat and the state Attorney General and (all important) Secretary of State positions heading into 2020, and passed independent redistricting for both congressional and state legislative races.
posted by msalt at 12:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
- Dem sweep in New Mexico
- breaking supermajorities in both North Carolina houses, coupled with Democratic governor, is huge for redistricting. Also, voters soundly rejected a measure to take away the governor's ability to appoint election board members and give it to the (Republican) legislature.
- Oregon's Democratic governor won big, against predictions, all conservative ballot measures failed and Democrats won supermajorities in both houses.
- In Colorado, Democrats win governor, flipped a congressional seat and the state Attorney General and (all important) Secretary of State positions heading into 2020, and passed independent redistricting for both congressional and state legislative races.
posted by msalt at 12:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
More Beto spillover in the Hurd - Ortiz Jones race that seems to have switched.
Dave Weigel
In 2014, when Will Hurd first wins #TX23, just 6,693 votes are cast in the El Paso part of the district.
Today? 17,421 votes.
If he ends up losing it's because of O'Rourke voters storming the polls.
posted by chris24 at 12:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Dave Weigel
In 2014, when Will Hurd first wins #TX23, just 6,693 votes are cast in the El Paso part of the district.
Today? 17,421 votes.
If he ends up losing it's because of O'Rourke voters storming the polls.
posted by chris24 at 12:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Texas House started out 93-56. 12 seats (so far) is not a small gain.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 12:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Oh god, the margin in Nelson/Scott's Senate race in Florida just closed within the automatic recount range. Oh god why.
posted by Justinian at 12:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 12:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
@MadisonWIClerk: With 145,510 voters, the City of Madison had 92.9% turnout today (as a percentage of pre-registered voters).
Wow. That, apparently, is how to get rid of Scott Walker. I'm curious how organizers in Madison pulled that off and what can be replicated elsewhere.
posted by zachlipton at 12:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [74 favorites]
Wow. That, apparently, is how to get rid of Scott Walker. I'm curious how organizers in Madison pulled that off and what can be replicated elsewhere.
posted by zachlipton at 12:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [74 favorites]
Some good initiative wins in Michigan. On top of legal marijuana, they passed a ballot measure that permits same-day voter registration and no-excuse absentee voting, along with other voting rights measures. And a new constituional amendment will hand redistricting to a citizens commission instead of the current partisan legislature+governor system.
Same-day registration also passed in Maryland.
posted by zachlipton at 12:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
Same-day registration also passed in Maryland.
posted by zachlipton at 12:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
Trump called Pelosi to congratulate her. That seems like an awfully un-Trump thing to do.
Probably wants to promote Pelosi as the public face of the Democratic party, on the theory that it will make Democrats less popular.
posted by alexei at 12:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Probably wants to promote Pelosi as the public face of the Democratic party, on the theory that it will make Democrats less popular.
posted by alexei at 12:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Guys, I fell asleep on the couch, but my four year old woke me up at just the right time to celebrate. I'm completely overjoyed.
I knocked a lot of doors in Madison and I am so unreasonably proud of my city.
posted by gerstle at 12:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [48 favorites]
I knocked a lot of doors in Madison and I am so unreasonably proud of my city.
posted by gerstle at 12:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [48 favorites]
GOTV is the only way to win. Don't prepare to get voters to the polls in 2020, work your ass off to get them to the polls in 2019, as there are seriously important elections happening in your town just next year. Vote in them, and get as many people as you can to vote in them, too. Get in the habit of getting voters to get their vote to matter in. Every. Last. Election.
..
posted by Slap*Happy at 12:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
..
posted by Slap*Happy at 12:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
Of note, GA-06 has come down to Karen Handel up by less than 100 votes with 100% reporting. This was Newt Gingrich's old seat and the seat John Ossoff made so much news by contesting. This is another race in GA which is going to come down to legal battles.
Neighboring GA-07 seems to have settled out with a GOP win, but the closeness of the race should give Republicans pause. Gwinnett county, which makes up the bulk of the district, has been reliably Republican for several cycles, but is also an area which has seen a large influx of Asian and Latinx people. Its blue-ing is part of a pattern of metro Atlanta counties trending more liberal.
Republican strategists should be looking at the this trend with trepidation at the very least. Cobb county, which has traditionally been the "Anti-Atlanta" conservative stronghold, went for Abrams this cycle and Clinton in 2016. This is a country which is on record making racist excuses to refuse mass transit and literally invented a fake city to stop Atlanta from soiling their lily white fantasy land. The fact that Gwinnett and Cobb are have gone Democratic in the past couple election cycles are a harbinger of what's to come.
It's not just that these areas have seen increasing Asian and Latinx populations, but these wealthy northern metro counties have also seen a diaspora of Black people from the Atlanta itself. A lot of the kids and grandkids of the generation that desegregated Atlanta ended up moving out to the suburbs, even as the kids of the White Flight generation moved back into the city. This has meant there has been a big influx of White liberals into the Atlanta even as there has been a steady stream of African-Americans moving out to the suburbs. This has led to some pearl clutching about the whitening of Atlanta, but at the same time has meant the blackening of the suburbs. This, combined with Asian and Latino voters, has meant the Republican strongholds which sent Newt Gingrich and Bob Barr to the Senate are now up for contention.
So keep your eye on Georgia (and North Carolina!). Some of the same demographic and economic changes which pushed Virginia into the Dem column are also happening further South. I feel like I go into political threads and see the South ignored time and time again. It's area written off as a bunch of backwards hicks. When you do that though, you discount a huge amount of African-Americans who have fought tooth and nail to vote, along with a a substantial amount of white liberals, Asian-Americans, and Latinos. There's so much attention paid to the Midwest and the Rust Belt slide towards reactionary politics, but Georgia has almost as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania, as many as Michigan, and more than Indiana.
Republicans managed to establish themselves in the South on campaigns of racism and voodoo economics. It about time for the Democrats to win it back.
posted by Panjandrum at 12:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [50 favorites]
Neighboring GA-07 seems to have settled out with a GOP win, but the closeness of the race should give Republicans pause. Gwinnett county, which makes up the bulk of the district, has been reliably Republican for several cycles, but is also an area which has seen a large influx of Asian and Latinx people. Its blue-ing is part of a pattern of metro Atlanta counties trending more liberal.
Republican strategists should be looking at the this trend with trepidation at the very least. Cobb county, which has traditionally been the "Anti-Atlanta" conservative stronghold, went for Abrams this cycle and Clinton in 2016. This is a country which is on record making racist excuses to refuse mass transit and literally invented a fake city to stop Atlanta from soiling their lily white fantasy land. The fact that Gwinnett and Cobb are have gone Democratic in the past couple election cycles are a harbinger of what's to come.
It's not just that these areas have seen increasing Asian and Latinx populations, but these wealthy northern metro counties have also seen a diaspora of Black people from the Atlanta itself. A lot of the kids and grandkids of the generation that desegregated Atlanta ended up moving out to the suburbs, even as the kids of the White Flight generation moved back into the city. This has meant there has been a big influx of White liberals into the Atlanta even as there has been a steady stream of African-Americans moving out to the suburbs. This has led to some pearl clutching about the whitening of Atlanta, but at the same time has meant the blackening of the suburbs. This, combined with Asian and Latino voters, has meant the Republican strongholds which sent Newt Gingrich and Bob Barr to the Senate are now up for contention.
So keep your eye on Georgia (and North Carolina!). Some of the same demographic and economic changes which pushed Virginia into the Dem column are also happening further South. I feel like I go into political threads and see the South ignored time and time again. It's area written off as a bunch of backwards hicks. When you do that though, you discount a huge amount of African-Americans who have fought tooth and nail to vote, along with a a substantial amount of white liberals, Asian-Americans, and Latinos. There's so much attention paid to the Midwest and the Rust Belt slide towards reactionary politics, but Georgia has almost as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania, as many as Michigan, and more than Indiana.
Republicans managed to establish themselves in the South on campaigns of racism and voodoo economics. It about time for the Democrats to win it back.
posted by Panjandrum at 12:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [50 favorites]
You guys, Arizona needs to count fucking faster. There are still like 400 Maricopa county precincts and like 150 Pima county precincts still out, and McSally is up by around 25,000 (I think; itâs late and math is hard). What is taking so long???? Theyâre optical scan ballots! And you had most of them last week!!!!
posted by Weeping_angel at 12:25 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Weeping_angel at 12:25 AM on November 7, 2018
Here's what I heard the other day:
NEW: @VaughnHillyard says we may not know the #AZSen results for days after Election Day because Maricopa County Recorders Office will not begin releasing results of early ballots turned in on Election Day until the end of the day on Thursday #MTPDailyposted by Chrysostom at 12:28 AM on November 7, 2018
This is whatâs been happening in Maricopa County.
posted by Autumnheart at 12:30 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 12:30 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Incidentally, Lamont [D] has pulled within 0.4% in CT gov with 88% in, so I guess it will come down to where is outstanding.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:32 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 12:32 AM on November 7, 2018
I'm so frustrated and disappointed at my fellow Californians, looking at the proposition results.
posted by ApathyGirl at 12:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by ApathyGirl at 12:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
A lot of people will legitimately see Prop 10s failure as a disappointment but besides that I think we did ok? I'll grant that was one of the big ones, though.
posted by Justinian at 12:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 12:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
@PatrickSvitek: With all precincts in again, SOS website shows @WillHurd defeating @GinaOrtizJones by 689 votes. SOS confirms there was an error in Medina County results earlier and the latest numbers are the correct ones. #TX23
So, does anyone know if Texas has a recount mechanism?
posted by zachlipton at 12:41 AM on November 7, 2018
So, does anyone know if Texas has a recount mechanism?
posted by zachlipton at 12:41 AM on November 7, 2018
Dammit! Listening to Galvin's concession speech right now : { That's AK rep seat. Galvin is running against Don Young who has been in congress almost as long as I have been alive.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 12:42 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 12:42 AM on November 7, 2018
I knocked a lot of doors in Madison and I am so unreasonably [understandably] proud of my city.
FTFY.  Well done.  That's astounding and you should be proud.  Gives the rest of us something for which to aim.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
FTFY.  Well done.  That's astounding and you should be proud.  Gives the rest of us something for which to aim.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
It looks like you can request a Texas recount if you're within 10% (!), but it's only automatic if there is a dead tie.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
@gettinviggy: BREAKING: Lamont inches ahead of Stefanowski by 2,696 votes -- accounting for Norwalk, Bridgeport and Stratford. Swaths of Hartford and New Haven still unreported. A lane appears to be opening up for Lamont to become Connecticut's 89th governor #ctpolitics #ctgov
This is proving to be an interesting late nailbiter.
posted by zachlipton at 12:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
This is proving to be an interesting late nailbiter.
posted by zachlipton at 12:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
"Dem sweep in New Mexico"
For NM-2, I'm seeing Herrell (R) up by 1% with 95% of precincts reporting. Do you have other info? It is significant that this is close, as this is a conservative district (in which I grew up, BTW, and, um, that county went 75% for Herrell because of course it did).
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:53 AM on November 7, 2018
For NM-2, I'm seeing Herrell (R) up by 1% with 95% of precincts reporting. Do you have other info? It is significant that this is close, as this is a conservative district (in which I grew up, BTW, and, um, that county went 75% for Herrell because of course it did).
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:53 AM on November 7, 2018
@aseitzwald: Democrats have *flipped* 7 state legislative chambers and 333 seats, adding 6 more trifectas (gov+both chambers), per DLCC.
The flipped chambers are: Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, Minnesota House, New Hampshire Senate & House, and the New York Senate.
Really the sleeper story of the night. It will be important for us to pressure newly Dem legislatures in these states to enact voting rights bills to build on these gains. And there's an opportunity in some states to enact the kinds of environmental policies that the feds are quickly trying to undo.
posted by zachlipton at 12:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
The flipped chambers are: Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, Minnesota House, New Hampshire Senate & House, and the New York Senate.
Really the sleeper story of the night. It will be important for us to pressure newly Dem legislatures in these states to enact voting rights bills to build on these gains. And there's an opportunity in some states to enact the kinds of environmental policies that the feds are quickly trying to undo.
posted by zachlipton at 12:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
Rohrabacher (R-Moscow) behind Rouda (D), with a 2,252 vote deficit at 91% reporting (358 of 395 precincts).
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Particularly (as in Maine and New York) with Dem trifectas.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 12:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
California is underperforming slightly in flipping House seats so far (though we're still gonna get some!) but if Rohrabacher (R-Putin's Footstool) is one of the ones that do fall it will all be worth it. We'll finally have broken the Orange Curtain! Couldn't happen to a nicer asshole.
*holds up lighter and cues the Scorpion's "Wind of Change" up on the ol' cassette deck*
I want to see Tester hold MT before bed but I'm not sure they're counting fast enough. The models still think he has it which would be big. Holding MT despite the Senate problems plus the pickup in NV would mean the Senate results are survivable. Not good. But we avoided the apocalyptic scenario and still have a map for 2020 regardless of what happens in AZ. (Where we might still win but are now 3-2 underdogs per NYT.)
posted by Justinian at 1:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
*holds up lighter and cues the Scorpion's "Wind of Change" up on the ol' cassette deck*
I want to see Tester hold MT before bed but I'm not sure they're counting fast enough. The models still think he has it which would be big. Holding MT despite the Senate problems plus the pickup in NV would mean the Senate results are survivable. Not good. But we avoided the apocalyptic scenario and still have a map for 2020 regardless of what happens in AZ. (Where we might still win but are now 3-2 underdogs per NYT.)
posted by Justinian at 1:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Ds won 6 trifectas and lost none. Rs won no trifectas and lost 3.
posted by chris24 at 1:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 1:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
And with absentee votes coming in, McBath (D) is now up on Handel (R) in GA-06.
posted by chris24 at 1:07 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 1:07 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Rouda (D) is looking decent over Rohrabacher (R) in CA-48, but with a couple thousand vote margin, I wouldn't really feel confident until we have a good picture of the uncounted vote-by-mail ballots, which can trickle in as late as Friday. CA's counties often use 100% precincts reporting to mean "we counted some stuff, there's probably a hell of a lot more, see you eventually." I'm really hoping there isn't a narrow red sweep of every California tossup district; that would be exactly the nationwide nightmare scenario of Rs erking out tiny wins in district after district that I went into tonight dreading, yet merely localized entirely within my state.
I haven't digested all of Politico's big âPlease Stop Saying Red Waveâ: Inside Democratsâ Takeover of the House: By the time White House aides convinced Trump he could lose, it was too late (or the equally large equivalent features from the Post and McClatchy that also dropped tonight), but here's a quote:
posted by zachlipton at 1:23 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
I haven't digested all of Politico's big âPlease Stop Saying Red Waveâ: Inside Democratsâ Takeover of the House: By the time White House aides convinced Trump he could lose, it was too late (or the equally large equivalent features from the Post and McClatchy that also dropped tonight), but here's a quote:
Brimming with frustration one Sunday in September, Yoder placed a phone call to Steve Stivers, chairman of the NRCC. Word had leaked that his group, the House GOPâs campaign arm, planned to cut $1.2 million in TV spending that would have buoyed him in the suburban district. But the committee had a poll showing Yoder trailed Davids by high single-digits and suddenly pulled the rug out from under him. Yoder learned of the development from press reports, not the committee.Yoder is on track to lose by 9.
âWhen people ask me what I think of you, I canât decide whether to tell them youâre a fucking idiot or a fucking liar,â Yoder growled at Stivers. âBut now I think youâre both.â
posted by zachlipton at 1:23 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Sinemaâs still lagging behind McSally by about 14,000 votes, with most of the remaining precincts in Pinal county. Thatâs basically Florence, where the prison is. Iâm not hopeful.
posted by Weeping_angel at 1:23 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Weeping_angel at 1:23 AM on November 7, 2018
What especially frosts me about that is that McSally was clearly going to be appointed to the Flake seat anyway, it's not like she needs this.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 1:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
For NM-2, I'm seeing Herrell (R) up by 1% with 95% of precincts reporting. Do you have other info?
Just a verbal report 4 hours ago from a New Mexico resident in town, comparing results. Sorry.
posted by msalt at 1:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Just a verbal report 4 hours ago from a New Mexico resident in town, comparing results. Sorry.
posted by msalt at 1:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think I was too pessimistic about the CA districts earlier. Thereâs a lot of ballots left to count, and at least four districts (CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48) that are quite close to D pickups. CA-25 is a 100 vote tie right now. Itâs about just as easy to advance a âRepublicans hold their ground on CAâ narrative as a âDemocratic wave throws blue state Rs outâ one at this point. If late vote-by-mail ballots break as blue as they did in 2016, I think there's decent odds of some good news out of a bunch of these districts, which, at the rate CA counts ballots, we'll find out about eventually, in the fullness of time, someday.
posted by zachlipton at 2:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 2:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
How did turn out end up comparing to 2016 and 2014?
posted by os tuberoes at 2:38 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by os tuberoes at 2:38 AM on November 7, 2018
This is whatâs been happening in Maricopa County.
posted by flabdablet at 2:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Despite a polling-place foreclosure, malfunctioning ballot printers and complaints of long voting lines, Fontes said Tuesday morning had been "a typical election day with typical, run-of-the-mill problems."It would be interesting to find out whether there is any correlation between polling places having been affected by slowdowns and glitches and having historically skewed Democratic.
He acknowledged that some of the county's 503 polling places had "our typical very long lines," but said the county's elections operations had experienced only minor problems and blamed the delays on massive turnout.
"The question of long lines," he added, "is really relative." At many polling places, he said, it took less than a minute to check in each voter â four times faster than before. And most American voters, he said, expected to wait between 20 and 30 minutes, anyway.
posted by flabdablet at 2:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
According to Dave Wasserman (of Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight and NBC), Tester looks likely to hold on to his flat top senate seat. I realize it's part of his brand and all, but it always appealed to me that there still was a working farmer in the U.S. senate. Also, he just seems like about as decent a person as one can expect in high political office.
posted by Kattullus at 2:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Calling them something less immediately derogatory than âCorporate Demsâ would be a start.
We'll see - Pelosi is already braying about bipartisanship, even after almost two years of getting beat over the head. Some of these people are so rotted through with corporate accommodation that they'll never learn to fight.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [20 favorites]
We'll see - Pelosi is already braying about bipartisanship, even after almost two years of getting beat over the head. Some of these people are so rotted through with corporate accommodation that they'll never learn to fight.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [20 favorites]
I find the stickers a little patronizing.
I understand that other people don't feel this way
New Metafilter merch?
posted by LizBoBiz at 3:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
I understand that other people don't feel this way
New Metafilter merch?
posted by LizBoBiz at 3:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
I find the stickers a little patronizing.
I kind of feel the same way, too, but at least here in NYC the stickers are functional in that they help you avoid getting accosted by street campaign workers on election day.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 3:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
I kind of feel the same way, too, but at least here in NYC the stickers are functional in that they help you avoid getting accosted by street campaign workers on election day.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 3:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Ds won 6 trifectas and lost none. Rs won no trifectas and lost 3.
It's interesting that more of the low-visibility races are going Democratic, while more of the high-visibility races are going Republican.
Is there any chance that Trump has attracted a bloc of low-motivation voters, the ones who have to be really worked up before they'll learn about candidates and cast their votes? The ones who can't be bothered with down-ballot races?
posted by clawsoon at 3:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
It's interesting that more of the low-visibility races are going Democratic, while more of the high-visibility races are going Republican.
Is there any chance that Trump has attracted a bloc of low-motivation voters, the ones who have to be really worked up before they'll learn about candidates and cast their votes? The ones who can't be bothered with down-ballot races?
posted by clawsoon at 3:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Do they stop counting when it gets too late? ME-02 is still deadlocked at 46 all but the R incumbent is ahead roughly 800 votes with 72% reporting.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:56 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:56 AM on November 7, 2018
Something that's good news to me: Trump appears to have called Nancy Pelosi to congratulate her, which makes it likely that he isn't going to challenge the Democrats' control of the House or try to refuse to seat new representatives - both possibilities that have been giving me the screaming fantods these past couple of weeks. And if he isn't beating the drum about how the Democrats are illegitimate, the likelihood of violence goes down.
Granted, I'm pretty horrified that this is a real consideration, but at least it broke our way. And treating this election as normal lays the groundwork for treating the next one, when we god-willing throw that asshole out, as also normal. I mean, I am haunted by the likelihood of an actual GOP military coup, and every election with normal transitions reduces that possibility.
posted by Frowner at 3:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [46 favorites]
Granted, I'm pretty horrified that this is a real consideration, but at least it broke our way. And treating this election as normal lays the groundwork for treating the next one, when we god-willing throw that asshole out, as also normal. I mean, I am haunted by the likelihood of an actual GOP military coup, and every election with normal transitions reduces that possibility.
posted by Frowner at 3:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [46 favorites]
Dead brothel owner Dennis Hof (R) overwhelmingly won his seat in Nevada's state assembly.
What a country.
posted by clawsoon at 4:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
What a country.
posted by clawsoon at 4:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
(Slept well for the first time in weeks. Don't think I'll ever stay up for election results again, even in 2020.)
I'm so relieved to hear about the House. I really hope Dems are not stupid enough to run away from Pelosi - she is by far the best leader they have.
Those gubernatorial losses are really disheartening. We really needed Ohio and Florida. I hope every Dem that loses by a 1 percent margin or less requests a recount. Even if they don't win, they will be underscoring the fact that the winner does -not- have a mandate and should not be allowed to govern like they have one.
Also just want to add that I've always hated the Blue Wave slogan and wish it hadn't been adopted as a rallying cry by Dems. A wave goes back out to sea. We need to keep up this level of engagement, as exhausting and expensive as it is, forever.
posted by longdaysjourney at 4:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I'm so relieved to hear about the House. I really hope Dems are not stupid enough to run away from Pelosi - she is by far the best leader they have.
Those gubernatorial losses are really disheartening. We really needed Ohio and Florida. I hope every Dem that loses by a 1 percent margin or less requests a recount. Even if they don't win, they will be underscoring the fact that the winner does -not- have a mandate and should not be allowed to govern like they have one.
Also just want to add that I've always hated the Blue Wave slogan and wish it hadn't been adopted as a rallying cry by Dems. A wave goes back out to sea. We need to keep up this level of engagement, as exhausting and expensive as it is, forever.
posted by longdaysjourney at 4:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
We'll see - Pelosi is already braying about bipartisanship, even after almost two years of getting beat over the head. Some of these people are so rotted through with corporate accommodation that they'll never learn to fight.
I'm less than comfortable with the language of this comment, but this is my fear as well--a one-seat majority in the house is only worth something if you have a disciplined caucus, which is not exactly something Democrats excel at.
I suppose the real win is committee control, though.
posted by hoyland at 4:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
I'm less than comfortable with the language of this comment, but this is my fear as well--a one-seat majority in the house is only worth something if you have a disciplined caucus, which is not exactly something Democrats excel at.
I suppose the real win is committee control, though.
posted by hoyland at 4:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Pleasing thread,
@missmayn: "Trump has endorsed 11 Republicans running for Governor, 31 House candidates and 13 Senate candidates and I've screenshot every one of them and will let him know every one that loses."
posted by Buntix at 4:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
@missmayn: "Trump has endorsed 11 Republicans running for Governor, 31 House candidates and 13 Senate candidates and I've screenshot every one of them and will let him know every one that loses."
posted by Buntix at 4:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
So, some good news, some bad news. At least I'm not lying on the bathroom floor in shock like I was in 2016. I just sent a fax to my rep, the doughty and reliable Elijah Cummings, congratulating him on his (never in doubt) victory, and telling him that in his position as Chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee I trust him to spearhead a thorough and merciless investigation of the Trump crime family. The rule of law must be restored to America.
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [29 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [29 favorites]
Happy to update that San Diego's appropriately-named birther judge Kreep, introduced to you by zabuni above, seems to have lost his seat by a large margin.
posted by mcfighty at 4:24 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by mcfighty at 4:24 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
I'm less than comfortable with the language of this comment
If we've seen anything clearly in the last two years, it's that the road to fascism is slicked with "civility".
posted by ryanshepard at 4:28 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
If we've seen anything clearly in the last two years, it's that the road to fascism is slicked with "civility".
posted by ryanshepard at 4:28 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
...likely that he isn't going to challenge the Democrats' control of the House or try to refuse to seat new representatives...
Like a lot of people, my circle is pretty diverse and I know people on both sides of the divide. Reading the criticisms of the liberal media and of the conservative media highlights a very important issue: We have no sense, or a diminished sense, of what this jack-off Trump is capable of. Sorry, came out hasty. We have no sense of the limits of what Trump will do. Part of this is intentional, obviously, keep your enemies on the wrong foot, keep your motives obscure. But part of it is also the lack of any 'basic' news. There is no 'neutral' news source: I would be 100% unsurprised to hear Trump riling up his base with "They stole your Election!" or "The Dems stole it from you and now the flood of immigrants with their drugs and raping!" It would be insane, but it would not surprise me because I have no idea what this guy's limits are - I think he worked with the Russians (or his campaign did, though I would not be surprised if they did not even realize it was illegal. Because they seem that neglectful/dumb/slapdash ) in 2016 which suggests to me that he might try anything. But maybe it really was just dumb and they didn't know you shouldn't do that - and subsequently he wouldn't try anything truly audacious. As further proof of this is how many posts went unfilled (continue to be unfilled - who's the ambassador to the UN?), Trump's more incompetent than nefarious...
The tl:dr - I too am glad and vaguely surprised he's not going to fight this tooth and nail, and I fault the media for not giving me a fuller/ less biased picture of this shit-head so that I could know that there was never any real doubt that this would be the case.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:30 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Like a lot of people, my circle is pretty diverse and I know people on both sides of the divide. Reading the criticisms of the liberal media and of the conservative media highlights a very important issue: We have no sense, or a diminished sense, of what this jack-off Trump is capable of. Sorry, came out hasty. We have no sense of the limits of what Trump will do. Part of this is intentional, obviously, keep your enemies on the wrong foot, keep your motives obscure. But part of it is also the lack of any 'basic' news. There is no 'neutral' news source: I would be 100% unsurprised to hear Trump riling up his base with "They stole your Election!" or "The Dems stole it from you and now the flood of immigrants with their drugs and raping!" It would be insane, but it would not surprise me because I have no idea what this guy's limits are - I think he worked with the Russians (or his campaign did, though I would not be surprised if they did not even realize it was illegal. Because they seem that neglectful/dumb/slapdash ) in 2016 which suggests to me that he might try anything. But maybe it really was just dumb and they didn't know you shouldn't do that - and subsequently he wouldn't try anything truly audacious. As further proof of this is how many posts went unfilled (continue to be unfilled - who's the ambassador to the UN?), Trump's more incompetent than nefarious...
The tl:dr - I too am glad and vaguely surprised he's not going to fight this tooth and nail, and I fault the media for not giving me a fuller/ less biased picture of this shit-head so that I could know that there was never any real doubt that this would be the case.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:30 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I'm less than comfortable with the language of this comment
>>If we've seen anything clearly in the last two years, it's that the road to fascism is slicked with "civility".
And the road to misogyny is paved with describing women as âbrayingâ. Whatever you think of the Dems (and by god, letâs at least count all the votes before we start infighting), comparing women to donkeys is really not a good look.
posted by lydhre at 4:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [78 favorites]
>>If we've seen anything clearly in the last two years, it's that the road to fascism is slicked with "civility".
And the road to misogyny is paved with describing women as âbrayingâ. Whatever you think of the Dems (and by god, letâs at least count all the votes before we start infighting), comparing women to donkeys is really not a good look.
posted by lydhre at 4:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [78 favorites]
Let me just register my dismay that so many of the local American newspapers I've turned to for local political coverage are geolocked for people in Europe. I know what the workarounds are, but it's still disheartening that quality information that used to be readily available all over the world isn't anymore.
posted by Kattullus at 4:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 4:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Do they stop counting when it gets too late? ME-02 is still deadlocked at 46 all but the R incumbent is ahead roughly 800 votes with 72% reporting..
Maine recently implemented ranked choice voting for its federal races. I spent yesterday knocking on doors and being an impromptu vote taxi for the Golden campaign yesterday and everyone in the local office knew that this was going to be tight enough that weâd have to count the second rank choices. We were all expecting the counting for this to run on to Wednesday.
posted by bl1nk at 4:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Maine recently implemented ranked choice voting for its federal races. I spent yesterday knocking on doors and being an impromptu vote taxi for the Golden campaign yesterday and everyone in the local office knew that this was going to be tight enough that weâd have to count the second rank choices. We were all expecting the counting for this to run on to Wednesday.
posted by bl1nk at 4:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
And the road to misogyny is paved with describing women as âbrayingâ. Whatever you think of the Dems (and by god, letâs at least count all the votes before we start infighting), comparing women to donkeys is really not a good look.
I'm not comparing her as a woman, I'm comparing her as a politician.
I was elated to see AOC and a number of other women who actually give a damn about average working Americans win big last night, and resent this kind of well poisoning in the service of deflecting criticism from people who richly deserve it.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I'm not comparing her as a woman, I'm comparing her as a politician.
I was elated to see AOC and a number of other women who actually give a damn about average working Americans win big last night, and resent this kind of well poisoning in the service of deflecting criticism from people who richly deserve it.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Beto came much closer than I thought he would, damn shame he couldn't pull it off.
And Kemp appears to have successfully cheated his way to victory in Georgia. Is there any chance of the new Democratic House investigating his blatant cheating and vote suppression, or is that purely a pipe dream?
posted by sotonohito at 4:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
And Kemp appears to have successfully cheated his way to victory in Georgia. Is there any chance of the new Democratic House investigating his blatant cheating and vote suppression, or is that purely a pipe dream?
posted by sotonohito at 4:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
ryanshepard In the current environment of extreme misogyny, it is perfectly valid to be sharply and harshly critical of women. But it behooves you to pick your terminology with care, certain terms that might be ok when applied to men have misogynist overtones when applied to women. Intent doesn't matter so it doesn't matter whether or not you intend those terms to be gender neutral.
No one is telling you to stop criticizing Pelosi, I'm in agreement with those criticisms myself, but picking words to avoid misogyny is important.
posted by sotonohito at 4:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [91 favorites]
No one is telling you to stop criticizing Pelosi, I'm in agreement with those criticisms myself, but picking words to avoid misogyny is important.
posted by sotonohito at 4:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [91 favorites]
> Calling them something less immediately derogatory than âCorporate Demsâ would be a start.
Luckily, the proper language is right there. There are two ideological groupings within the Democratic Party:
The challenge, if we choose to accept it (we must accept it), is to turn this rickety and often self-sabotaging coalition into a weapon against the well-oiled death machine that is fascism. The only reason we have a chance at all is because the fascist machine is shiny on the outside, but rotten inside, and because it's moreover piloted by narcissistic morons.
tl;dr: if you don't want to be called corporatist, own up to being liberals. and try not to totally disown your socialist siblings, even when you think they're obnoxious.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 4:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [58 favorites]
Luckily, the proper language is right there. There are two ideological groupings within the Democratic Party:
- Liberals. This is the right flank of the party, but are overrepresented in the party leadership. They support market capitalism and the concomitant corporate control of the economy. Their core supporters are comfortable middle management types and those members of the executive class who want to preserve managed democracy instead of establishing fascism. These core supporters are supplemented by working-class people who think that following management's lead is fine, but who don't like fascism.
- Socialists. This is the center and left of the party. For the most part they're social democrats (people who think that electoral means are by themselves an effective path toward ending corporate control of the economy and establishing widespread prosperity) though a few democratic socialists (people who think that electoral means are primarily a tool for extra-parliamentary movement building) have snuck in via DSA. Their core supporters are those members of the working class and poor who don't identify with / follow the lead of the middle-class liberals (which is to say, a large subset of the working class, but maybe not even a majority of it). This group is supplemented by a bunch of left-academics and creative types, who like speaking for the working class but who may not be reliable when the chips are down — and who sometimes indulge in left-adventurism that ultimately harms the prospects of the working class as a whole. hey that's me!
The challenge, if we choose to accept it (we must accept it), is to turn this rickety and often self-sabotaging coalition into a weapon against the well-oiled death machine that is fascism. The only reason we have a chance at all is because the fascist machine is shiny on the outside, but rotten inside, and because it's moreover piloted by narcissistic morons.
tl;dr: if you don't want to be called corporatist, own up to being liberals. and try not to totally disown your socialist siblings, even when you think they're obnoxious.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 4:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [58 favorites]
I'm not comparing her as a woman, I'm comparing her as a politician.
You also said she "prated". Please remember who the base of the party is and what kind of message you're sending us when you use sexist language to describe our women leaders. Language like this does not help your goals, most of which I share, by the way.
posted by longdaysjourney at 4:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
You also said she "prated". Please remember who the base of the party is and what kind of message you're sending us when you use sexist language to describe our women leaders. Language like this does not help your goals, most of which I share, by the way.
posted by longdaysjourney at 4:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Neoliberals are not liberals. Thanks.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Oh, right, itâs been like 4 whole hours since the election, so this is exactly the appropriate time for Democratic Socialists to start announcing how theyâre the pure heart of the party, and that other Democrats need to fall in line or risk being labeled?
If you donât want to be thought of as obnoxious and disowned by the rest of your cohort, stop acting like the first place to fight fascism is by attacking members of your own party. Honest to God, youâre the reason Democrats canât maintain a functioning party UNTIL fascism is knocking on the fucking door. Take all that bullshit and aim it at Republicans.
posted by Autumnheart at 5:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [84 favorites]
If you donât want to be thought of as obnoxious and disowned by the rest of your cohort, stop acting like the first place to fight fascism is by attacking members of your own party. Honest to God, youâre the reason Democrats canât maintain a functioning party UNTIL fascism is knocking on the fucking door. Take all that bullshit and aim it at Republicans.
posted by Autumnheart at 5:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [84 favorites]
Not to mention that the Great Leap Forward is not a winning platform in 2020.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Canada might be a lesson there, where the left is split into two or three parties, and sometimes we form governments led by the party of the right that's got less than 40% of the popular vote because SPLITTING. So, yes, I would urge for a bit more cohesiveness among the left, because whatever you can say about the right being lying, cheating scum, they also don't split their vote.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
I think it's possible that people who have perfectly legitimate criticisms of Pelosi might also fall, though habits induced by living in a misogynist society, into using misogynist tropes and language.
Like, when I look at old anti-Thatcher stuff, there's some really misogynist images out there, some created by artists I like and respect. Thatcher was a monster who should have ended on the guillotine, I don't think those artists were actually howling misogynists in life, but because we all marinate in a sea of misogyny, it's easy to tap into those tropes.
~~~
On the socialists vs liberals front: I think that it would be better to have this debate over specific proposals rather than ideologies, especially since in the US "socialist" and "liberal" are very slippery terms. Like, what if we could actually achieve a society with socialist elements (socialized medicine, socialized education, a socialied housing program aimed at all classes of society, etc) based on specific policies which generate mass organizing and votes?
posted by Frowner at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [70 favorites]
Like, when I look at old anti-Thatcher stuff, there's some really misogynist images out there, some created by artists I like and respect. Thatcher was a monster who should have ended on the guillotine, I don't think those artists were actually howling misogynists in life, but because we all marinate in a sea of misogyny, it's easy to tap into those tropes.
~~~
On the socialists vs liberals front: I think that it would be better to have this debate over specific proposals rather than ideologies, especially since in the US "socialist" and "liberal" are very slippery terms. Like, what if we could actually achieve a society with socialist elements (socialized medicine, socialized education, a socialied housing program aimed at all classes of society, etc) based on specific policies which generate mass organizing and votes?
posted by Frowner at 5:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [70 favorites]
In North Carolina it's close to what you're doing in the UK except that the piece of paper looks like a standardized test ("fill in the ovals") and the box you drop the paper in is a machine that can tally the votes.
Like so much else in our wild and wooly state, this depends on where you are. Up in Guilford County, we have the touchscreens (with the visible-to-the-user confirmation tape, thank goodness). We were at a Halloween party in Wake Co and were surprised to find that wasn't the case everywhere.
posted by joycehealy at 5:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Like so much else in our wild and wooly state, this depends on where you are. Up in Guilford County, we have the touchscreens (with the visible-to-the-user confirmation tape, thank goodness). We were at a Halloween party in Wake Co and were surprised to find that wasn't the case everywhere.
posted by joycehealy at 5:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
In any case, off to buy celebratory "Minnesota did pretty well, the US did well enough and at least there will never be the 2018 midterms ever again" donuts for work.
posted by Frowner at 5:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by Frowner at 5:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
@Redistrict: #OK05: Kendra Horn (D) has apparently defeated Rep. Steve Russell (R). The district voted 53%-40% for Trump in 2016. This is a HUGE upset for Democrats.
I haven't seen this call from anyone else yet, but Wasserman is pretty careful. Very much the "woah where did that come from?" district nobody was looking at.
Update: NBC is joining this call.
*waves from the Oklahoma Intercollegiate Legislature alumni crew*
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
I haven't seen this call from anyone else yet, but Wasserman is pretty careful. Very much the "woah where did that come from?" district nobody was looking at.
Update: NBC is joining this call.
*waves from the Oklahoma Intercollegiate Legislature alumni crew*
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
I worked the polls for like 18 hours yesterday, and I'm burnt out, and and need to go back to bed, but I need to share this moment from yesterday. I apologize for my inability to articulate the true feeling of the moment.
Guy with mobility issues comes into our polling location. Walking is obviously challenging, due to a neurological issue. We service a few FHA apartment buildings at our polling site, so more than our share of ADA access.posted by mikelieman at 5:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [54 favorites]
This was exceptional. So the fella, heâs there to verify his friendâs registration at our site, before he goes and gets his friend -- the voter -- who REALLY has trouble getting around.
So, we confirmed that The Voter was registered to vote at our polling location, and he left to go get his friend.
And I canât express my admiration for both of them, as they returned, and -- I canât explain it other than saying what we all felt:
âTHIS VOTER, WITH THE CHALLENGES OF JUST GETTING THROUGH THE DOOR, PUT IN THE EFFORT REQUIRED. NO-ONE. NO-ONE HAS A LEGITIMATE EXCUSE FOR NOT VOTING. PERIOD.â
It was fucking inspiring. I'm not skilled enough to express the real feeling of this Perfect Moment
Sorry if this has been addressed but I just caught up on the thread:
Rohrabacher's race says 100% reporting and he's down by 1.4%. Is this over?
posted by lazaruslong at 5:32 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Rohrabacher's race says 100% reporting and he's down by 1.4%. Is this over?
posted by lazaruslong at 5:32 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Trump appears to have called Nancy Pelosi to congratulate her, which makes it likely that he isn't going to challenge the Democrats' control of the House or try to refuse to seat new representatives - both possibilities that have been giving me the screaming fantods these past couple of weeks.
Well...just a couple of hours. President Short-Attention-Span will probably lash out as soon as he's on Fox. In any case,
In any case, I'm pretty sure the President has no say in seating anyone in Congress. Only the body itself can vote to not seat an elected member. But, that's a very cumbersome move, given the numbers involved.
Now, on the state level, defeated candidates can certainly call for a recount, but that's about the only challenge open to Republicans.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:35 AM on November 7, 2018
Well...just a couple of hours. President Short-Attention-Span will probably lash out as soon as he's on Fox. In any case,
In any case, I'm pretty sure the President has no say in seating anyone in Congress. Only the body itself can vote to not seat an elected member. But, that's a very cumbersome move, given the numbers involved.
Now, on the state level, defeated candidates can certainly call for a recount, but that's about the only challenge open to Republicans.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:35 AM on November 7, 2018
> "Rohrabacher's race says 100% reporting and he's down by 1.4%. Is this over?"
I believe not yet, no. I think "100% reporting" doesn't cover absentee/mail-in ballots, which California gets a lot of and gets later than most.
posted by kyrademon at 5:35 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I believe not yet, no. I think "100% reporting" doesn't cover absentee/mail-in ballots, which California gets a lot of and gets later than most.
posted by kyrademon at 5:35 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Highlights!
Won't someone please post a summary of highlights?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Chrysostom, a thread turns its lonely eyes to you...
posted by RedOrGreen at 5:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Won't someone please post a summary of highlights?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Chrysostom, a thread turns its lonely eyes to you...
posted by RedOrGreen at 5:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
And, sadly, Indiana voted to paint itself even brighter red.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 5:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Iâm a moderate Democrat who is fairly radical on some issues and cautious on others. Iâm availabe for long-knife target practice if anyone is in the mood.
posted by argybarg at 5:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 5:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Now that the election is over, and knowing full well that we shouldn't re-litigate 2016, add my voice to the chorus saying that it's time to come down hard on the establishment and corporate Dems. Now that we're getting our foot in the door in a few places, we should immediately begin the work of identifying legitimate further left candidates to push out the Schumers, the Pelosis, and the Hillarys, and the Warrens in favor of the AOCs, Betos, Harrises, and beyond.
And to those people saying it's time to stop attacking the party and focus on keeping the Republicans out of power, a question: if not now, when!? If we are going to hold the machinery of this administration accountable, we need to elect candidates who are going to answer all the Republican bullshit, not work on repairing bridges and bipartisanship. It's time to abolish and prosecute ICE, it's time to see that justice is dished out to every official that had a the slightest hand in voter suppression, and to push packing the courts, etc.
The establishment Dems are and will continue to be useful to get the Republicans out of power, but the task has to begin NOW to make sure that it sticks and current party leadership is absolutely not up to the job of attacking conservatives while they are in retreat. But that's what it's going to take and as utterly insane as it is to say it: I'm looking at the old left as the new right in the places where they have a solid grip on power. Liberals need to continue to be held accountable. I think we actually do a far above average job of that here, but I hope to see that reflected in the polls in the near future. I think the way to do that is to start cultivating candidates who will provide a legitimate alternative to "Don't like Dem, vote Rep."
posted by Krazor at 5:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
And to those people saying it's time to stop attacking the party and focus on keeping the Republicans out of power, a question: if not now, when!? If we are going to hold the machinery of this administration accountable, we need to elect candidates who are going to answer all the Republican bullshit, not work on repairing bridges and bipartisanship. It's time to abolish and prosecute ICE, it's time to see that justice is dished out to every official that had a the slightest hand in voter suppression, and to push packing the courts, etc.
The establishment Dems are and will continue to be useful to get the Republicans out of power, but the task has to begin NOW to make sure that it sticks and current party leadership is absolutely not up to the job of attacking conservatives while they are in retreat. But that's what it's going to take and as utterly insane as it is to say it: I'm looking at the old left as the new right in the places where they have a solid grip on power. Liberals need to continue to be held accountable. I think we actually do a far above average job of that here, but I hope to see that reflected in the polls in the near future. I think the way to do that is to start cultivating candidates who will provide a legitimate alternative to "Don't like Dem, vote Rep."
posted by Krazor at 5:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
It appears the California prop 3 (8.8 billion water infrastructure bonds, largely benefiting large corporate agriculture interests) has passed by a margin of 224 votes - 112,361 yes, 112,137 no.
posted by Rhomboid at 5:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Rhomboid at 5:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Now that we're getting our foot in the door in a few places, we should immediately begin the work of identifying legitimate further left candidates to push out the Schumers, the Pelosis, and the Hillarys, and the Warrens in favor of the AOCs, Betos, Harrises, and beyond.
I'mma need a primer on who is or isn't a good Dem, if Warren is on that list. Also Clinton, given that she wasn't on the ballot anywhere.
And I'm going to cautiously point to the graveyard that is the Senate and respectfully argue that "out with the moderate Dems" might not be the best winning strategy there.
(And I say this as a socialist-adjacent Dem who is very excited about AOC, Beto, Harris, and beyond).
posted by lydhre at 5:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [59 favorites]
I'mma need a primer on who is or isn't a good Dem, if Warren is on that list. Also Clinton, given that she wasn't on the ballot anywhere.
And I'm going to cautiously point to the graveyard that is the Senate and respectfully argue that "out with the moderate Dems" might not be the best winning strategy there.
(And I say this as a socialist-adjacent Dem who is very excited about AOC, Beto, Harris, and beyond).
posted by lydhre at 5:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [59 favorites]
You do that at the municipal level. At the county level. The state level. You start small. You push candidates with socialist/progressive policies. You get them in power where the stakes are low but the policies can be proven successful. You help them succeed, prove them to the big base. You'll never see a socialist president until you see lots of socialist senators and representatives, and you won't see them until you've packed the state legislatures, until there's a hundred million people with a personal story to tell about how socialism has already worked for them. It doesn't just parachute out of the sky. You have to build it. That's how the Tea Party begat Trump. The playbook is written, and the left is only just now starting to execute well. Yesterday was proof of that.
The scary fucking challenge is that we don't really have 20 years to make a monumental shift in economic policy, because the climate isn't going to wait that long. So the only thing to do is lean in hard.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
The scary fucking challenge is that we don't really have 20 years to make a monumental shift in economic policy, because the climate isn't going to wait that long. So the only thing to do is lean in hard.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
Now that we're getting our foot in the door in a few places, we should immediately begin the work of identifying legitimate further left candidates to push out the Schumers, the Pelosis, and the Hillarys, and the Warrens in favor of the AOCs, Betos, Harrises, and beyond.
Kamala Harris is an establishment Dem.
Beto, while not taking PAC money, was a member of the centrist NDC when he was a Representive and ran on a pretty typical Dem platform.
posted by PenDevil at 5:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [26 favorites]
Kamala Harris is an establishment Dem.
Beto, while not taking PAC money, was a member of the centrist NDC when he was a Representive and ran on a pretty typical Dem platform.
posted by PenDevil at 5:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [26 favorites]
And to those people saying it's time to stop attacking the party and focus on keeping the Republicans out of power, a question: if not now, when!?
The way to do it, though, is by offering a positive alternative, not attacking. I didn't follow all the campaigns you cite closely, but my impression is that's the approach they used. Those of us on the further left can also criticize centrist Democrats without "braying" and the like. We need to work to move the Overton window to the left, and that's more likely to succeed by convincing people our ideas are good, rather than convincing them Nancy Pelosi is bad.
posted by Mavri at 5:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
The way to do it, though, is by offering a positive alternative, not attacking. I didn't follow all the campaigns you cite closely, but my impression is that's the approach they used. Those of us on the further left can also criticize centrist Democrats without "braying" and the like. We need to work to move the Overton window to the left, and that's more likely to succeed by convincing people our ideas are good, rather than convincing them Nancy Pelosi is bad.
posted by Mavri at 5:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
You want to push out Elizabeth Warren, who is essentially the only person standing in the way of reversing every consumer protection we enjoy? Are you nuts?
And to those people saying it's time to stop attacking the party and focus on keeping the Republicans out of power, a question: if not now, when!?
When we have a majority in both the House and the Senate and at the state level, a defined party platform and an organized structure for accomplishing those goals. Not when we have a very tenuous majority in one house, and an extremely hostile president and Senate. That is exactly not the time to start destabilizing support within oneâs own party. You know how Republicans had a supermajority for 2 years, and still couldnât pass legislation if their lives depended on it? Thatâs what that looks like.
And yes, this makes it a 30-year goal, just like it was a 30-year goal for the GOP, because foundational party support isnât an overnight process, and we need a strong media machine behind it as well, which we most definitely do not have.
posted by Autumnheart at 5:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [57 favorites]
And to those people saying it's time to stop attacking the party and focus on keeping the Republicans out of power, a question: if not now, when!?
When we have a majority in both the House and the Senate and at the state level, a defined party platform and an organized structure for accomplishing those goals. Not when we have a very tenuous majority in one house, and an extremely hostile president and Senate. That is exactly not the time to start destabilizing support within oneâs own party. You know how Republicans had a supermajority for 2 years, and still couldnât pass legislation if their lives depended on it? Thatâs what that looks like.
And yes, this makes it a 30-year goal, just like it was a 30-year goal for the GOP, because foundational party support isnât an overnight process, and we need a strong media machine behind it as well, which we most definitely do not have.
posted by Autumnheart at 5:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [57 favorites]
push out the Schumers, the Pelosis, and the Hillarys, and the Warrens
Also, the attacks on the center Dems seem to always end up disproportionately targeting women. For some reason.
posted by Mavri at 5:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [116 favorites]
Also, the attacks on the center Dems seem to always end up disproportionately targeting women. For some reason.
posted by Mavri at 5:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [116 favorites]
I was pins and needles last night. I still feel really anxious because this wasn't the rebuke to Trump that the USA needed to self-correct. But it's a start. I was just hoping for a decisive blow, but now FoxNews and Trump and the rest can slink away and claim victory and push more violence.
As far as inter-Dem fighting, I'm a DSA member and think the socialists should proudly proclaim true allegiance to their ideals in a way they haven't in the past. We should call out corporate-influence on politics and privatization schemes posed by fellow Democrats. However, we can be pragmatic. We, for example, can say we're pragmatically supporting Pelosi, but only if certain concessions and leadership positions are offered. If they want us to act like team players, we expect a seat at the table. We can still express disappointment in Pelosi. We're not the Tea Party or Freedom Caucus, threatening tantrums to get what we want, but if the liberals (or corporate Dems or whatever) want our support, we expect theirs. We may be passionate, but we're not stupid.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 5:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
As far as inter-Dem fighting, I'm a DSA member and think the socialists should proudly proclaim true allegiance to their ideals in a way they haven't in the past. We should call out corporate-influence on politics and privatization schemes posed by fellow Democrats. However, we can be pragmatic. We, for example, can say we're pragmatically supporting Pelosi, but only if certain concessions and leadership positions are offered. If they want us to act like team players, we expect a seat at the table. We can still express disappointment in Pelosi. We're not the Tea Party or Freedom Caucus, threatening tantrums to get what we want, but if the liberals (or corporate Dems or whatever) want our support, we expect theirs. We may be passionate, but we're not stupid.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 5:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Also, the attacks on the center Dems seem to always end up disproportionately targeting women. For some reason.
Don't they just? And I'm fairly certain that if Gillibrand or Harris even think of running in 2020 they'll get lumped in with the centrist Dems too, instantly. Oh wait, that's already happened.
If you want to know how sick and tired I am of misogyny tainting US politics ON ALL FRONTS the answer is fucking sick and fucking tired.
posted by lydhre at 5:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [73 favorites]
Don't they just? And I'm fairly certain that if Gillibrand or Harris even think of running in 2020 they'll get lumped in with the centrist Dems too, instantly. Oh wait, that's already happened.
If you want to know how sick and tired I am of misogyny tainting US politics ON ALL FRONTS the answer is fucking sick and fucking tired.
posted by lydhre at 5:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [73 favorites]
Do they stop counting when it gets too late? ME-02 is still deadlocked at 46 all but the R incumbent is ahead roughly 800 votes with 72% reporting.
As noted above, ranked choice will be the deciding factor here. There were actually four candidates in this race:
Tiffany Bond (I) 13,157 votes
Jared Golden (D) 107,883 votes
William Hoar (I) 5554 votes
Bruce Poliquin (R - incumbent) 107295 votes
That's from the Bangor Daily News with 331 of 404 precincts reporting.
Folks had the choice to rank their choices, so all the votes who ranked 1) Bond 2) Golden will now go to Golden. (She's pretty progressive so I would expect the bulk of those to go to Golden and not Poliquin). Probably the Hoar votes will go in the other direction, although most exit polling shows that folks who vote R don't rank their choices (yeah, I dunno - they often use the phrase "old school") so I think it is likely that the votes for Hoar only ranked Hoar as their first choice and declined to rank anyone else. So their ballots will be eliminated from the second round of counting -- which won't happen until the first round is complete. A lot of the precincts in Northern Maine are tiny and hand count, which is why you're not seeing complete results.
Whatever happens in CD2 though (and I do actually think Golden will pull it off), this was a great, great night for Maine. LePage has been blocking A TON of bills, including the voter-approved Medicaid expansion, and I look forward to a lot of action happening in the first legislative session. including hopefully the constitutional changes needed to make ranked choice the law for the Governor's race, in addition to all the other races.
posted by anastasiav at 5:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
As noted above, ranked choice will be the deciding factor here. There were actually four candidates in this race:
Tiffany Bond (I) 13,157 votes
Jared Golden (D) 107,883 votes
William Hoar (I) 5554 votes
Bruce Poliquin (R - incumbent) 107295 votes
That's from the Bangor Daily News with 331 of 404 precincts reporting.
Folks had the choice to rank their choices, so all the votes who ranked 1) Bond 2) Golden will now go to Golden. (She's pretty progressive so I would expect the bulk of those to go to Golden and not Poliquin). Probably the Hoar votes will go in the other direction, although most exit polling shows that folks who vote R don't rank their choices (yeah, I dunno - they often use the phrase "old school") so I think it is likely that the votes for Hoar only ranked Hoar as their first choice and declined to rank anyone else. So their ballots will be eliminated from the second round of counting -- which won't happen until the first round is complete. A lot of the precincts in Northern Maine are tiny and hand count, which is why you're not seeing complete results.
Whatever happens in CD2 though (and I do actually think Golden will pull it off), this was a great, great night for Maine. LePage has been blocking A TON of bills, including the voter-approved Medicaid expansion, and I look forward to a lot of action happening in the first legislative session. including hopefully the constitutional changes needed to make ranked choice the law for the Governor's race, in addition to all the other races.
posted by anastasiav at 5:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Now that we're getting our foot in the door in a few places, we should immediately begin the work of identifying legitimate further left candidates to push out the Schumers, the Pelosis, and the Hillarys, and the Warrens in favor of the AOCs, Betos, Harrises, and beyond
Warren?! It's not getting much play in the news, but have you seen her anti-corruption and accountable capitalism bills? She's really trying to do good work.
posted by banjo_and_the_pork at 5:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [44 favorites]
Warren?! It's not getting much play in the news, but have you seen her anti-corruption and accountable capitalism bills? She's really trying to do good work.
posted by banjo_and_the_pork at 5:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [44 favorites]
One thing I do hate is that democratic socialists tend to latch onto specific candidates and politicians as being very good or bad. I think Pelosi is wrong on a lot of issues, but that's because of the issues and not Pelosi (she's also right on quite a few and just far enough on others). I'm not here to take down a Pelosi or a Clinton or a Manchin because that makes no sense (Clinton isn't even running and I was well aware the line Manchin had to walk). We're debating ideas and we should only bring the candidate in so we can push for our ideas. I'm sick of two-minute hates against corporate Dems. I know what they are and their limitations. Until we can address those limitations (by convincing them to change or primarying them out), we're going to have to work with them to get anything done.
Plus, we all have a fight against fascism in which to participate.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 5:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
Plus, we all have a fight against fascism in which to participate.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 5:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
When we have a majority in both the House and the Senate and at the state level, a defined party platform and an organized structure for accomplishing those goals.
I remember when all of those things were true. Somehow it wasn't the right time then, either. Funny how that works.
posted by enn at 5:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
I remember when all of those things were true. Somehow it wasn't the right time then, either. Funny how that works.
posted by enn at 5:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
I read that Trump called Pelosi to congratulate her. That seems like an awfully un-Trump thing to do.
MSN: Trump Congratulates Pelosi After Democrats Take House Majority; Staff Hinted He Wouldn't
On one hand: "President Trump called Leader Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. this evening to extend his congratulations on winning a Democratic House Majority," Drew Hamill, a Pelosi spokesman, in a tweet. "He acknowledged the Leader's call for bipartisanship in her victory remarks."
On the other: "Look I'm not sure why you would call Nancy Pelosi considering a lot of members of her own party have said they wouldn't support her," [Sarah] Sanders said. "If Democrats win tonight, I think we need to wait and see who their Speaker is."
Just now, @realDonaldTrump tweeted, "In all fairness, Nancy Pelosi deserves to be chosen Speaker of the House by the Democrats. If they give her a hard time, perhaps we will add some Republican votes. She has earned this great honor!" (The Trump or Not Bot's natural-language algorithm calculates only a 37% chance this was actually written by him.)
But earlier: "To any of the pundits or talking heads that do not give us proper credit for this great Midterm Election, just remember two words - FAKE NEWS!" (94% chance)
A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes, and we're facing eight of them before the 116th congressional session begins.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:00 AM on November 7, 2018
MSN: Trump Congratulates Pelosi After Democrats Take House Majority; Staff Hinted He Wouldn't
On one hand: "President Trump called Leader Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. this evening to extend his congratulations on winning a Democratic House Majority," Drew Hamill, a Pelosi spokesman, in a tweet. "He acknowledged the Leader's call for bipartisanship in her victory remarks."
On the other: "Look I'm not sure why you would call Nancy Pelosi considering a lot of members of her own party have said they wouldn't support her," [Sarah] Sanders said. "If Democrats win tonight, I think we need to wait and see who their Speaker is."
Just now, @realDonaldTrump tweeted, "In all fairness, Nancy Pelosi deserves to be chosen Speaker of the House by the Democrats. If they give her a hard time, perhaps we will add some Republican votes. She has earned this great honor!" (The Trump or Not Bot's natural-language algorithm calculates only a 37% chance this was actually written by him.)
But earlier: "To any of the pundits or talking heads that do not give us proper credit for this great Midterm Election, just remember two words - FAKE NEWS!" (94% chance)
A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes, and we're facing eight of them before the 116th congressional session begins.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:00 AM on November 7, 2018
Announcing that oneâs first intention upon attaining majority shareholder status is to fire half the people in the company shows a staggering amount of ignorance about how to actually accomplish constructive organizational turnover in a strategic manner. Itâs not only not a good idea, itâs mind-bogglingly stupid.
1. It kills morale.
2. It punishes people for the work they did.
3. It alienates their network and makes you start all that work over again from square one.
4. Itâs extremely expensive.
5. It creates massive disorganization as people have to learn how to rebuild all those things.
Thatâs why you donât do it. You know how you do it in a company? You define a mission, you create roles for accomplishing them, you move and hire effective people into those roles, you move ineffective people out of them and either into a role theyâd be good at, or you pat them on the back with a generous severance and tell them good luck. Thatâs how organizational change works.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [81 favorites]
1. It kills morale.
2. It punishes people for the work they did.
3. It alienates their network and makes you start all that work over again from square one.
4. Itâs extremely expensive.
5. It creates massive disorganization as people have to learn how to rebuild all those things.
Thatâs why you donât do it. You know how you do it in a company? You define a mission, you create roles for accomplishing them, you move and hire effective people into those roles, you move ineffective people out of them and either into a role theyâd be good at, or you pat them on the back with a generous severance and tell them good luck. Thatâs how organizational change works.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [81 favorites]
Or you could practice recognizing that a huge portion of the country is moderately liberal at best (Washington State, reporting for duty) and is A) not secretly hoping to be converted to âtrueâ liberalism and B) will not have any positive response to being purged in the coming Purity Wars.
People in the âpureâ strand of any ideology just donât get moderates. They think moderates must be whores or cowards, and since they are in the uncanny valley they seem creepy.
I encourage anyone to look at all the hundreds of failed states that ceded to dictatorships because the Left couldnât stop killing its own. And also: check yourself. Think carefully about the uses of power, even imaginary power.
posted by argybarg at 6:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [59 favorites]
People in the âpureâ strand of any ideology just donât get moderates. They think moderates must be whores or cowards, and since they are in the uncanny valley they seem creepy.
I encourage anyone to look at all the hundreds of failed states that ceded to dictatorships because the Left couldnât stop killing its own. And also: check yourself. Think carefully about the uses of power, even imaginary power.
posted by argybarg at 6:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [59 favorites]
Turnout was 114 million. HUGE for a midterm. 2014 was 83 million.
And in some races turnout exceeded 2016. TX32 (Allred-D beating Sessions-R) and GA06 (McBath-D beating Handel-R) for two examples.
posted by chris24 at 6:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [29 favorites]
And in some races turnout exceeded 2016. TX32 (Allred-D beating Sessions-R) and GA06 (McBath-D beating Handel-R) for two examples.
posted by chris24 at 6:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [29 favorites]
I'm not terribly disappointed about Pelosi saying she'll strive for "bipartisanship" any more than I'm, like, impressed and cheering "Woohoo!" when Republicans say they want to "protect pre-existing conditions". Lip service is lip service.
Basically no Democratic leader is going to say "The other party has absolutely nothing good to contribute and hence we should not work with them in the slightest", despite the bare truth of that. Almost every time the GOP has obstructed, its vocalizations were to the effect of how the Democrats weren't compromising, not "We believe in obstruction as a matter of principle". I think the inverse of that is extremely possible (to use a can-of-worms phrase).
The main obstacle is that the Dem constituency includes 99% of "nice" people, and hence the folks who bristle at hardball, but I really think this line is walkable when you consider just how criminal and horrible the administration is. Top Democrats don't have to go around saying that the Trump crowd is all criminals, they can be "just asking questions" and point to the results. And they will certainly ask a hell of a lot of questions.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [40 favorites]
Basically no Democratic leader is going to say "The other party has absolutely nothing good to contribute and hence we should not work with them in the slightest", despite the bare truth of that. Almost every time the GOP has obstructed, its vocalizations were to the effect of how the Democrats weren't compromising, not "We believe in obstruction as a matter of principle". I think the inverse of that is extremely possible (to use a can-of-worms phrase).
The main obstacle is that the Dem constituency includes 99% of "nice" people, and hence the folks who bristle at hardball, but I really think this line is walkable when you consider just how criminal and horrible the administration is. Top Democrats don't have to go around saying that the Trump crowd is all criminals, they can be "just asking questions" and point to the results. And they will certainly ask a hell of a lot of questions.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [40 favorites]
I remember when all of those things were true. Somehow it wasn't the right time then, either.Respectfully, you donât. You might be thinking of the era when more politicians had a D after their names but that was also before the ideological filtering caused so many conservative Democrats (and liberal Republicans) to change parties. Youâre also omitting a huge amount of progress which did happen â all of the things the Republicans are attacking, from social programs to worker protections and the EPA, are on their hitlist because they became law.
Iâm really unconvinced that the path to victory lies through specious attacks on allies rather than treating past progress as just a starting point
posted by adamsc at 6:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [39 favorites]
Basically no Democratic leader is going to say "The other party has absolutely nothing good to contribute and hence we should not work with them in the slightest", despite the bare truth of that.
Thank you! Exactly. Trump was calling Democrats a âviolent mobâ less than a week ago. If Pelosi had been anything but conciliatory in her first remarks, how would he have reacted? He sent 5,000 troops to confront a refugee caravan thatâs still a thousand miles away and told them to shoot.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Thank you! Exactly. Trump was calling Democrats a âviolent mobâ less than a week ago. If Pelosi had been anything but conciliatory in her first remarks, how would he have reacted? He sent 5,000 troops to confront a refugee caravan thatâs still a thousand miles away and told them to shoot.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Do we know total voter turnout for 2018 midterms? Like compared to both 2016 and midterms 2014?
Thanks mediareport for the somewhat optimistic outlook on NC breaking House & Senate super majorities as well as the 5-2 D majority in the NC Supreme Court.
I was still bummed that the bogus bullshit crime victims' right amendment passed, when it clearly is a butt sling for politicians who get caught doing heinous things. And WTF on the "right to hunt and fish" amendment? Isn't that just bullshit busywork?
WHatever NC. You seem hellbent on sticking with the southern idiocy you've tried so hard to break free from.
posted by yoga at 6:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Thanks mediareport for the somewhat optimistic outlook on NC breaking House & Senate super majorities as well as the 5-2 D majority in the NC Supreme Court.
I was still bummed that the bogus bullshit crime victims' right amendment passed, when it clearly is a butt sling for politicians who get caught doing heinous things. And WTF on the "right to hunt and fish" amendment? Isn't that just bullshit busywork?
WHatever NC. You seem hellbent on sticking with the southern idiocy you've tried so hard to break free from.
posted by yoga at 6:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
One of the things that doomed left movements in the 70s, from the new communist movement to the professional shift was a refusal to build coalitions. Weâre facing an internal fascist threat and the construction of a Popular Front is the only thing that has a hope to defeat it. The Democratic leadership (Schumer at all) has shown a severe lack of leadership on this front while the actual base seems fired up to do something about it. Despite (or because) of being a huge gigantic revolutionary socialist, I am then willing to form alliances with progressives to defeat our enemies. I see this willingness to form coalitions from every side of the modern democratic appatrus BUT the leadership. Youâd think they do better considering how popular our policy proposals are.
posted by The Whelk at 6:12 AM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 6:12 AM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
I apologize if someone has already mentioned this, and we'll know more as actual numbers rather than polls come in, but the national popular vote was over 7% for Democrats. In a country with fairly drawn districts that would be a Democratic landslide all the way up and down the ballot, and that tells us a lot about the effect of gerrymandering on the country. The fact that this didn't happen is not a story of Democratic ineffectiveness, it's a story of vote suppression and inequality.
posted by Anonymous at 6:13 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Anonymous at 6:13 AM on November 7, 2018
Like i donât engage with republicans because I think they are, if still vocal and supporting, a lost cause. I engage with nonvoters and sympathize liberal leaning people.
posted by The Whelk at 6:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 6:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I suspect Trump is fulsomely praising Pelosi on Twitter this morning because, since he runs entirely on personal loyalty and co-option, he thinks if he butters her up, she'll be flattered enough to not investigate him. It's pretty hilarious to watch a man with no talents but bragging and schmoozing, who's actually not any good at schmoozing but made up for it with money, attempt to schmooze people who want NOTHING FROM HIM.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [57 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [57 favorites]
The actual base is fired up but makes up a small minority of the electorate.
posted by argybarg at 6:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Also if my experience in the PA elections have taught me anything it's that Republicans CAN be affected by the right arguments. When I canvassed in the 'burbs we didn't just target registered Dems, we successfully found registered Republicans who were just sick of Trump and corruption. All anecdata, and we're not going to affect Trumpistas, but smart, targeted messaging works.
posted by Anonymous at 6:16 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Anonymous at 6:16 AM on November 7, 2018
Ah, fuck MetaFilter. You all with your insight and good opinions. I've never like being wrong as much as I am here. I basically just rage-screeched what seanmpuckett articulated clearly.
Sincere apologies that I cited a disproportionate number of women. I didn't follow my rule and pause to think how that would read. I was going through a laundry list in my head of Dems who have been in the public eye, historically.
I just want a country with further left politics, politicians who represent their constituents instead of the landed gentry, who can communicate those ideas effectively from a genuine place, and neighbors that see that a socialist society is ultimately in their best interest. There's so much to be upset at and it feels so often like people aren't doing enough. And like I'm not doing enough. Personal problem, I know. But I really just wish more people would say "The other party has absolutely nothing good to contribute and hence we should not work with them in the slightest." That would be "A Thing" (tm)
I'm still waking up this morning, howling over ideals. Realistically, I want things to work and to get better. I know in my head that can't happen overnight. But I think it's natural to want it to. Anyway, purity tests are a losing proposition. Stay in school, kids and don't wind up like me.
posted by Krazor at 6:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [34 favorites]
Sincere apologies that I cited a disproportionate number of women. I didn't follow my rule and pause to think how that would read. I was going through a laundry list in my head of Dems who have been in the public eye, historically.
I just want a country with further left politics, politicians who represent their constituents instead of the landed gentry, who can communicate those ideas effectively from a genuine place, and neighbors that see that a socialist society is ultimately in their best interest. There's so much to be upset at and it feels so often like people aren't doing enough. And like I'm not doing enough. Personal problem, I know. But I really just wish more people would say "The other party has absolutely nothing good to contribute and hence we should not work with them in the slightest." That would be "A Thing" (tm)
I'm still waking up this morning, howling over ideals. Realistically, I want things to work and to get better. I know in my head that can't happen overnight. But I think it's natural to want it to. Anyway, purity tests are a losing proposition. Stay in school, kids and don't wind up like me.
posted by Krazor at 6:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [34 favorites]
I think there's some value to be found in what can often be frustrating calls for purging the party of centrist / corporate / whatever Dems, in much the same way that I think there's value in some of the more unrealistic calls for things like guaranteed basic income / abolishing the electoral college / whatever: shifting the window left is helpful. That's not to say that we shouldn't carefully examine our motivations and keep our eye on the ball for the larger fight against the fascist right.
posted by lazaruslong at 6:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by lazaruslong at 6:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
So we let fear of Trump cause Democrats to adopt a mealy mouthed, cold oatmeal, unappealing and uninspiring rhetoric?
That doesn't really seem reasonable. And it seems like a way to suck the life out of what little momentum we've built.
"Now now, don't get too excited that we won, it's time for **ENLIGHTENED CENTRISM**!!! We're going to be bipartisan and very polite to our esteemed and deeply respected Republican colleges who are all very good people we totally expect we can work with! Isn't that exciting boys and girls? Don't you want to work with the very nice Republicans who are extremely reasonable people who will work with us?"
I'm voting no, in fact I literally just voted no yesterday. If there was ever time to have a little fire in the belly instead of the typical utterly bland and deliberately boring and anti-inspiring Democratic rhetoric now is that time.
What, exactly, would have been wrong with Pelosi cheering the Democratic victory and declaring that she'd be subpoenaing Trump's tax returns first thing on Jan 3, followed by an investigation into vote suppression in Georgia?
Yes, Trump would say unhinged and vile things. He's going to do that anyway. We seem, yet again, to have fallen into the Obama era appeasement trap. Maybe, you say, if we're nice enough and submissive enough, the Republicans won't be mean to us?
They're going to be mean to us no matter what. There is literally nothing we can say that will not cause Trump and his fellow Republicans to decree that we're an evil violent mob hellbent on destroying America. That's what the Republicans do. Nothing can or will change that.
Did Pelosi sleep through he Obama years or something? Did she not notice that being mealy mouthed surrender first losers failed totally to blunt Republican attacks?
AOC for Speaker please. We damn well need a real fighter, not Pelosi the Coward.
posted by sotonohito at 6:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
That doesn't really seem reasonable. And it seems like a way to suck the life out of what little momentum we've built.
"Now now, don't get too excited that we won, it's time for **ENLIGHTENED CENTRISM**!!! We're going to be bipartisan and very polite to our esteemed and deeply respected Republican colleges who are all very good people we totally expect we can work with! Isn't that exciting boys and girls? Don't you want to work with the very nice Republicans who are extremely reasonable people who will work with us?"
I'm voting no, in fact I literally just voted no yesterday. If there was ever time to have a little fire in the belly instead of the typical utterly bland and deliberately boring and anti-inspiring Democratic rhetoric now is that time.
What, exactly, would have been wrong with Pelosi cheering the Democratic victory and declaring that she'd be subpoenaing Trump's tax returns first thing on Jan 3, followed by an investigation into vote suppression in Georgia?
Yes, Trump would say unhinged and vile things. He's going to do that anyway. We seem, yet again, to have fallen into the Obama era appeasement trap. Maybe, you say, if we're nice enough and submissive enough, the Republicans won't be mean to us?
They're going to be mean to us no matter what. There is literally nothing we can say that will not cause Trump and his fellow Republicans to decree that we're an evil violent mob hellbent on destroying America. That's what the Republicans do. Nothing can or will change that.
Did Pelosi sleep through he Obama years or something? Did she not notice that being mealy mouthed surrender first losers failed totally to blunt Republican attacks?
AOC for Speaker please. We damn well need a real fighter, not Pelosi the Coward.
posted by sotonohito at 6:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Also if my experience in the PA elections have taught me anything it's that Republicans CAN be affected by the right arguments.
I would draw a big bright line between manipulators and the manipulated here - it's always been the case that the voters are better than Fox would have them.
posted by jaduncan at 6:18 AM on November 7, 2018
I would draw a big bright line between manipulators and the manipulated here - it's always been the case that the voters are better than Fox would have them.
posted by jaduncan at 6:18 AM on November 7, 2018
you guys ive done a lot of thinking and i've decided you're right: if we simply don't ask for (or, heaven forfend, demand) progressive things and politely wait on the sidelines, the centrists are sure to give them to us
posted by entropicamericana at 6:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by entropicamericana at 6:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Oh and btw if you too considered taking a week off in Michigan next year for NO REASON be aware that it's gonna be at least 2020 before you can actually buy any legal weed there. Licensing the business and regulatory framework and all that. Still - yay!
posted by lazaruslong at 6:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by lazaruslong at 6:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Sotonohito, you assume centrists are just cowardly leftists.
posted by argybarg at 6:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
sotonohito: it might be time for a break, at least long enough to see what Pelosi actually does rather than reading failure into a traditional anodyne post-election statement.
posted by adamsc at 6:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by adamsc at 6:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
AOC for Speaker please. We damn well need a real fighter, not Pelosi the Coward.
Seriously? We have Obamacare because of Pelosi. And without Obamacare for the last 8 years getting people used to having government protected insurance, Medicare for all is nowhere close to as popular as it is today. On top of all the lives saved. You may not love all of her politics but there's rarely been a better speaker at corralling the caucus and delivering votes.
posted by chris24 at 6:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [100 favorites]
Seriously? We have Obamacare because of Pelosi. And without Obamacare for the last 8 years getting people used to having government protected insurance, Medicare for all is nowhere close to as popular as it is today. On top of all the lives saved. You may not love all of her politics but there's rarely been a better speaker at corralling the caucus and delivering votes.
posted by chris24 at 6:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [100 favorites]
Maybe the time to talk about purging the party is not a handful of hours after those very same party members just finished months of grueling effort to win Democratic seatsâsuccessfully. Itâs unbelievably offensive.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [65 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 6:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [65 favorites]
So make her Whip or something and get someone with real fire as Speaker. The Democrats are desperately in need of some fire, some uplifting and inspiring rhetoric, not more of the same cold oatmeal anti-inspirational pap we hear from Pelosi and Schumer.
If Pelosi is great at corralling votes then put her in that job. But don't put her up in front of the Democrats deliberately and maliciously destroying any enthusiasm or hope we've got.
posted by sotonohito at 6:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
If Pelosi is great at corralling votes then put her in that job. But don't put her up in front of the Democrats deliberately and maliciously destroying any enthusiasm or hope we've got.
posted by sotonohito at 6:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Who to worry about being offensive to â ugh â centrists? Itâs not like theyâre humans. /s
posted by argybarg at 6:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Pelosi the Coward.
In fact, the Obamacare that Pelosi delivered in 2010 pretty much delivered us the House last night and saved democracy. Healthcare was the #1 issue by a 2-1 margin because people like the coverage and protections she passed 8 years ago and didn't want to lose them.
posted by chris24 at 6:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [103 favorites]
In fact, the Obamacare that Pelosi delivered in 2010 pretty much delivered us the House last night and saved democracy. Healthcare was the #1 issue by a 2-1 margin because people like the coverage and protections she passed 8 years ago and didn't want to lose them.
posted by chris24 at 6:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [103 favorites]
With governor's race deadlocked, Milwaukee delivered for Evers with late absentee ballots - Daniel Bice and Mary Spicuzza, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
With the race for governor hanging in the balance, Milwaukee city officials turned over more than 45,000 uncounted absentee ballots for official verification shortly after midnight.posted by ZeusHumms at 6:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
The results helped give Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Evers his first comfortable lead on Tuesday over Republican Gov. Scott Walker. Evers, the state schools chief, eventually edged Walker by about 29,000 votes.
Milwaukee County Clerk George Chistenson said his office received about 46,000 early and absentee ballots from the city long after all other votes had been counted in the county. The city waited to tally those votes until it finished counting other ballots.
From those late ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181.
And making the newest and youngest member of Congress Speaker would not be a wise move. I get the fire. I love AOC. But Speaker is not a figurehead role, it has real implications with vote wrangling and keeping the whole damn caucus in line.
I'm not saying Pelosi is the ONLY choice. But this is about holding the line with a slim majority and Democratic congresspeople elected in all sorts of purple and even full on red districts. Compromises are going to have to happen and we fucking better get used to it already.
posted by lydhre at 6:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
I'm not saying Pelosi is the ONLY choice. But this is about holding the line with a slim majority and Democratic congresspeople elected in all sorts of purple and even full on red districts. Compromises are going to have to happen and we fucking better get used to it already.
posted by lydhre at 6:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
you guys ive done a lot of thinking and i've decided you're right: if we simply don't ask for (or, heaven forfend, demand) progressive things and politely wait on the sidelines, the centrists are sure to give them to us
This is the same logic MRAs use when they complain that feminists arenât doing enough to help men, in an attempt to discredit feminism.
Nobodyâs stopping you. Organize.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
This is the same logic MRAs use when they complain that feminists arenât doing enough to help men, in an attempt to discredit feminism.
Nobodyâs stopping you. Organize.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
From r/politics: Two years to build up immunity
posted by elgilito at 6:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by elgilito at 6:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
argybarg Sotonohito, you assume centrists are just cowardly leftists.
Not at all!
I assume centrists are closet right wingers, because that's what their actions result in. "Centrists" always either advocate right wing positions, or advocate for delaying (which is to say never implementing) leftist positions.
MLK was 100% correct when, in his Letter from a Birmingham Jail, he identified the moderate white as a bigger impediment to civil rights than the KKK.
From an actual policy position there's no such thing as "moderate" or "centrist". You can't halfway address global warming. You can't give LGBT people partial civil rights, or civil rights only on alternate Thursdays. You can't force only some women to carry unwanted pregnancies to term, or only some unwanted pregnancies.
All of the "moderate compromises" proposed are just right wing positions or holding the status quo.
I'm open to being persuaded that there really is such a thing as a "moderate" or "centrist", but it's going to take some evidence, beginning with a statement of what "moderate" positions are on the important issues of today that isn't just a defense of the status quo or an advocacy of the right wing position.
posted by sotonohito at 6:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
Not at all!
I assume centrists are closet right wingers, because that's what their actions result in. "Centrists" always either advocate right wing positions, or advocate for delaying (which is to say never implementing) leftist positions.
MLK was 100% correct when, in his Letter from a Birmingham Jail, he identified the moderate white as a bigger impediment to civil rights than the KKK.
From an actual policy position there's no such thing as "moderate" or "centrist". You can't halfway address global warming. You can't give LGBT people partial civil rights, or civil rights only on alternate Thursdays. You can't force only some women to carry unwanted pregnancies to term, or only some unwanted pregnancies.
All of the "moderate compromises" proposed are just right wing positions or holding the status quo.
I'm open to being persuaded that there really is such a thing as a "moderate" or "centrist", but it's going to take some evidence, beginning with a statement of what "moderate" positions are on the important issues of today that isn't just a defense of the status quo or an advocacy of the right wing position.
posted by sotonohito at 6:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
Iâm not sure how anyone can read last nightâs results with progressive candidates losing basically every marquee matchup as the time for socialism is now. My read is pretty much exactly the opposite, and I can promise you the national party is not looking at this and saying we have to run more AOCs and less Conor Lambs.
Progressives made some minor gains, mostly foundation building and organizational, and changing the policy conversation, and none in terms of actual power. Along with some good results on expanding the voting population. Those are not nothing, but itâs not weâre here to take over the party and dictate terms either.
If you want a silver lining, thereâs room to build from here, but itâs decades of work ahead. The new progressives in congress can work to get some policy concessions in budgets, move bills slightly left, build on the budding consensus around Medicare for all, maybe push for a role in leadership. And look for the secret sauce that can somehow carve out a progressive role in the Senate. Maybe start smoking whatever Sherrod Brown is smoking. Thatâs how you start on the hard work of actually governing, not purge fantasies*.
*- donât get me wrong Iâve been known to enjoy a good purge fantasy before, but itâs not conductive for much.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:35 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
Progressives made some minor gains, mostly foundation building and organizational, and changing the policy conversation, and none in terms of actual power. Along with some good results on expanding the voting population. Those are not nothing, but itâs not weâre here to take over the party and dictate terms either.
If you want a silver lining, thereâs room to build from here, but itâs decades of work ahead. The new progressives in congress can work to get some policy concessions in budgets, move bills slightly left, build on the budding consensus around Medicare for all, maybe push for a role in leadership. And look for the secret sauce that can somehow carve out a progressive role in the Senate. Maybe start smoking whatever Sherrod Brown is smoking. Thatâs how you start on the hard work of actually governing, not purge fantasies*.
*- donât get me wrong Iâve been known to enjoy a good purge fantasy before, but itâs not conductive for much.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:35 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
The thing that terrifies me is the assurance many people have that the pure-left views are the ârealâ views of the Democratic party and the rest are compromise, or brainwashing, or cowardice.
This quickly turns into the idea that Americans as a whole are itching for the ideals of the pure left and just need to be liberated into allowing themselves to believe them.
As this thinking goes, the only barrier to this flood of righteousness is the dam of spineless âcentristsâ who keep blocking the message.
The behavior of these centrists is so incomprehensible the only explanation is they must be brainwashed or bought off. So we either need to liberate the centrists or eliminate them.
This chain of thinking is how peope who represent the views of, at most, 20% of the nation think they represent the real, secret mainstream.
posted by argybarg at 6:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [20 favorites]
This quickly turns into the idea that Americans as a whole are itching for the ideals of the pure left and just need to be liberated into allowing themselves to believe them.
As this thinking goes, the only barrier to this flood of righteousness is the dam of spineless âcentristsâ who keep blocking the message.
The behavior of these centrists is so incomprehensible the only explanation is they must be brainwashed or bought off. So we either need to liberate the centrists or eliminate them.
This chain of thinking is how peope who represent the views of, at most, 20% of the nation think they represent the real, secret mainstream.
posted by argybarg at 6:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [20 favorites]
Anyway if anyone is feeling down remember we build an electorally relevant socialist movement *in the United states* in like, two years.
posted by The Whelk at 6:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [81 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 6:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [81 favorites]
We did really well folks. I know some big losses make it seem marginal but the only bad loss is really FL and well, racism wins there. But Amendment 4 passed which will change the landscape hugely for 2020 and beyond. 1.4 million more D leaning voters in a state we always seem to lose by 100K.
And GA is disappointing though still a slim chance that Abrams gets to a runoff, but they cheated to get that. And the electorate changed in a traditionally red state, and did so for a progressive message. And TX was tantalizing close but resulted in great things down ballot and sets the table for the future. Rs will have to spend and fight there bigly in 2020.
And at the local level, we took back 333 of the 900 state seats we lost under 8 years of Obama. Not bad for one election.
We expanded our map, won in the midwest states that gave Trump the presidency, motivated and elected POC and women, saved democracy. It's a long road ahead but we took the big first step we needed to turn this country around and move it forward.
Liam Donovan
Little consolation I'm sure, but worth noting that the dissonance of last night is mostly a function of a wild 2012 cycle where Senate Ds did better than they had any business doing. Seats fall when they were expected to (heck, NV included), and it's close to a wash. FL lone đ.
posted by chris24 at 6:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
And GA is disappointing though still a slim chance that Abrams gets to a runoff, but they cheated to get that. And the electorate changed in a traditionally red state, and did so for a progressive message. And TX was tantalizing close but resulted in great things down ballot and sets the table for the future. Rs will have to spend and fight there bigly in 2020.
And at the local level, we took back 333 of the 900 state seats we lost under 8 years of Obama. Not bad for one election.
We expanded our map, won in the midwest states that gave Trump the presidency, motivated and elected POC and women, saved democracy. It's a long road ahead but we took the big first step we needed to turn this country around and move it forward.
Liam Donovan
Little consolation I'm sure, but worth noting that the dissonance of last night is mostly a function of a wild 2012 cycle where Senate Ds did better than they had any business doing. Seats fall when they were expected to (heck, NV included), and it's close to a wash. FL lone đ.
posted by chris24 at 6:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
Congressman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, officially announces his intention to run for House Minority Leader this morning, challenging Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Calif
posted by zombieflanders at 6:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 6:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
GA-GOV: Abrams scrapping for every single vote is exactly what's needed in this state after Kemp defended excluding those votes in court.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 6:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [44 favorites]
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 6:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [44 favorites]
Hereâs how Floridians voted on the 12 constitutional amendments - Elizabeth Koh, Samantha J. Gross; Miami Herald
More than half of the statewide measures on the ballot were placed by the powerful Constitution Revision Commission this year, a panel that convenes once every 20 years to propose changes to the stateâs constitution. Many of those amendments were also yoked together in a practice called âbundling,â meaning in some cases voters had to vote for all the proposals in an amendment or reject them all with a single âyesâ or âno.âposted by ZeusHumms at 6:45 AM on November 7, 2018
Proponents of the practice cited fears of ballot fatigue should every proposal be a separately suggested amendment. But opponents â including several groups that eventually brought half a dozen challenges up to the state Supreme Court â contended the bundling was politically motivated to improve or weaken proposalsâ chances of passing and crippled votersâ ability to decide each proposal on its merits.
...
⪠Amendment 9, one of the more contentious bundled amendments from the CRC, tethered a ban on oil and gas drilling in state-owned waters with a proposal to add vaping to the ban on smoking indoors. Voters chose to pass the amendment Tuesday. The decision was among those that were belatedly decided by the state Supreme Court last month, which chose to retain it and two other bundled amendments on the ballot, though ballots had already been printed before that date.
When I woke up here in Europe I took a look at the New York Times' Live Election Results page. I cannot find the text now, possibly because I do not have a subscription or possibly because it has been edited. What I can say is that at the time some part of it talked about Beto's loss in Texas and no shit, claimed that Democrats liked to focus on shiny things and this election Beto was that shiny thing and the election and 70 million dollars were lost. IT MADE ME SO ANGRY! There was no context, it was just a shitty hot take that completely disregarded history. I looked more recently and the New York Times now acknowledges that Beto outperformed the expected results.
Anyway, like many, I think our number 1 job now is to reform voting, battle voter suppression, and all things related to that. Also, to push back really hard on the addictive and toxic MSM political horse-race coverage. I have no idea how to deal with that part but jesus, we need to do something. Which is not helpful. Sorry.
Also, congratulations to US residents who now have a Democratic House of Representatives! Thanks again to the many MeFites who helped make this happen! I was so happy when my faxed ballot was certified, accepted, or whatever the hell they called it. I never donate to political candidates, but this year I did because of my fellow MeFites.
posted by Bella Donna at 6:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
Anyway, like many, I think our number 1 job now is to reform voting, battle voter suppression, and all things related to that. Also, to push back really hard on the addictive and toxic MSM political horse-race coverage. I have no idea how to deal with that part but jesus, we need to do something. Which is not helpful. Sorry.
Also, congratulations to US residents who now have a Democratic House of Representatives! Thanks again to the many MeFites who helped make this happen! I was so happy when my faxed ballot was certified, accepted, or whatever the hell they called it. I never donate to political candidates, but this year I did because of my fellow MeFites.
posted by Bella Donna at 6:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
House Dems Already Have Their List of Trump Scandals to Investigate. Here It Is, by David Corn in Mother Jones:
(I'm less exercised than other people about Nancy Pelosi smiling a nice face to the public, partially because I'm a dirty liberal who fails purity tests, but also because her statements so far are entirely consistent with a strategy of her making soothing centrist noises while unleashing the committee chairs to investigate/not providing ammunition for subjects of investigation to claim that these are hit-jobs being directed from above by San Francisco Nancy.)
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [66 favorites]
With the Democrats having won control of the House of Representatives, President Donald Trump and his crew in the White House and assorted federal agencies can expect to be hit by a wave of investigations and subpoena requests from Capitol Hill. There are dozens of House committees and subcommittees, and each no doubt has its own to-do list.Oh god, please please please please please.
The House Intelligence Committee, under the chairmanship of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), will certainly revive aspects of the Trump-Russia probe that House Republicans smothered. The House Foreign Affairs Committee surely will consider examining the Trump-Saudi relationship in light of the grisly murder of Jamal Khashoggi. You can bet the Homeland Security Committee will investigate the Trump administrationâs family-separation policy, and the Armed Services Committee will examine whether there was any reason for Trump to send 15,000 troops to the border to deal with a migrant caravan.
(I'm less exercised than other people about Nancy Pelosi smiling a nice face to the public, partially because I'm a dirty liberal who fails purity tests, but also because her statements so far are entirely consistent with a strategy of her making soothing centrist noises while unleashing the committee chairs to investigate/not providing ammunition for subjects of investigation to claim that these are hit-jobs being directed from above by San Francisco Nancy.)
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [66 favorites]
Sonohito: You could fight global warming by seizing the factories and power plants and either shutting them down or converting them by fiat. Or you could use market incentives and try to bend the cost curve, as with a carbon fee. Which one would be the ârealâ fight against global warming?
posted by argybarg at 6:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
In local news, Hennepin County Sheriff's race is just separated enough that it won't trigger a recount - it's a difference of 2,000-odd votes out of 500,000-odd votes, or .4%, when the cutoff is .25% (if it was a state legislative office, it would trigger a recount, since the cutoff for that is .5%. The more you know!). Hutch looks like he barely eked it out!
Minnesota did a pretty good job there yesterday. We didn't get them all, but we got a lot.
posted by dinty_moore at 6:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Minnesota did a pretty good job there yesterday. We didn't get them all, but we got a lot.
posted by dinty_moore at 6:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Bella Donna's point would be hard to overstate, and was one I was thinking of making earlier. If there is any additional effort to be found in the slow slog back towards real hope, it has to be towards making the media more responsible in matters that genuinely threaten society and civilization. And also like Bella Donna, I don't know how to do that.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
You could fight global warming by seizing the factories and power plants and either shutting them down or converting them by fiat. Or you could use market incentives and try to bend the cost curve, as with a carbon fee. Which one would be the ârealâ fight against global warming?Well, that would depend on whether you're a revolutionary leftist or a moderate centrist, wouldn't it? I'd like to see more noises about seizing the means of production from the damned capitalists, and I can't help but notice that as the voices calling for guillotines have grown louder, the window for what's "acceptable" from the nation's left-of-center party has shifted appreciably toward the AOCs of the world.
posted by Mayor West at 6:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
I can promise you the national party is not looking at this and saying we have to run more AOCs and less Conor Lambs.
CNN's Marshall Cohen reporting on Lamb's priorities: ".@JohnBerman asks @ConorLambPA if he wants to see Trump's tax returns. Answer: "No. I want to build infrastructure and get prescription prices down.â #ElectionNight"
Compare that to Elijah Cummings: "I want to probe senior Administration officials across the government who have abused their positions of power ... as well as President Trumpâs decisions to act in his own financial self-interest rather than the best interests of the American people."
The Dems are facing a balancing act between investigating the Trump administration and delivering on the basics that both the moderate and socialist-leaning wings agree on. It's going to be a tough couple of years, to say the least.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
CNN's Marshall Cohen reporting on Lamb's priorities: ".@JohnBerman asks @ConorLambPA if he wants to see Trump's tax returns. Answer: "No. I want to build infrastructure and get prescription prices down.â #ElectionNight"
Compare that to Elijah Cummings: "I want to probe senior Administration officials across the government who have abused their positions of power ... as well as President Trumpâs decisions to act in his own financial self-interest rather than the best interests of the American people."
The Dems are facing a balancing act between investigating the Trump administration and delivering on the basics that both the moderate and socialist-leaning wings agree on. It's going to be a tough couple of years, to say the least.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
There's a genuine, crucial distinction between centrism-as-championed-by-media-centrists and politics-as-art-of-the-possible-which-can-include-centrism. It gets blurred much too easily.
Here's my stance on immigration: open borders now. Stop actual murderers, but aside from that it's inexcusable to have quotas on the total number of people crossing arbitrary lines in the sand. Yet literally 0% of Congress is going to use that phrase. The current left-hand side of the overton window is "abolish ICE". So how do I feel about this state of affairs? Absolutely fucking thrilled. I mean, really, abolishing ICE as a plausible event in my lifetime? It makes a person giddy.
There will be 100 women in the House. Logically it should be 217. Actually it should be 435 women for the next century or so. It really, really should; I'm serious. Yet for me to then base my emotions, expectations, and actions on this "should" would be irrational in the extreme.
I don't think I'm a hypocrite when I simultaneously scoff at people on TV who say the Democrats need to moderate and moderate, and am privately very happy with Democrats like Bob Casey who are, on the whole, rather moderate. This is because the measurements are calibrated totally differently; the talking head dude is saying that Dems should behave like we're a center-right country and Casey is rightly responding to the winds that say we're at least center-left. TV centrists wanted more Democrats to cross the aisle on Kavanaugh, but Casey would never do such a thing, and we now know how brave it was for Heitkamp and Donnelly to also refuse.
Again, I'm just fucking thrilled about the future.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [30 favorites]
Here's my stance on immigration: open borders now. Stop actual murderers, but aside from that it's inexcusable to have quotas on the total number of people crossing arbitrary lines in the sand. Yet literally 0% of Congress is going to use that phrase. The current left-hand side of the overton window is "abolish ICE". So how do I feel about this state of affairs? Absolutely fucking thrilled. I mean, really, abolishing ICE as a plausible event in my lifetime? It makes a person giddy.
There will be 100 women in the House. Logically it should be 217. Actually it should be 435 women for the next century or so. It really, really should; I'm serious. Yet for me to then base my emotions, expectations, and actions on this "should" would be irrational in the extreme.
I don't think I'm a hypocrite when I simultaneously scoff at people on TV who say the Democrats need to moderate and moderate, and am privately very happy with Democrats like Bob Casey who are, on the whole, rather moderate. This is because the measurements are calibrated totally differently; the talking head dude is saying that Dems should behave like we're a center-right country and Casey is rightly responding to the winds that say we're at least center-left. TV centrists wanted more Democrats to cross the aisle on Kavanaugh, but Casey would never do such a thing, and we now know how brave it was for Heitkamp and Donnelly to also refuse.
Again, I'm just fucking thrilled about the future.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [30 favorites]
In any case, I'm pretty sure the President has no say in seating anyone in Congress. Only the body itself can vote to not seat an elected member. But, that's a very cumbersome move, given the numbers involved.
But if he were to, eg, tweet that he was sending troops to prevent seating the representatives or something totally bananas but not unlikely like that, who would stop him? He could say he was sending the National Guard. Seriously, we've been on a knife edge here, where I think there's been a real, serious question about whether the GOP was going to allow even our compromised elections if it meant losing anything. I think it was more likely than not that elections would proceed as normal, but I have been pretty worried that they'd decide to go for broke.
~~~
Here is another socialism versus liberalism proposal:
Let's start with US-definition-socialist policies that are popular, make them work and argue from there. The vast majority of Americans would go for basically socialized medicine, for instance. Here is a poster idea, for free:
"See the doctor whenever you need to - don't worry about the cost" with a little slogan "It's a socialist idea!"
And another:
"Get the medical care you need - don't worry about pre-existing conditions"
I think we could pretty easily get support for college like they used to run it in the UK, where it's free and you get a living stipend.
"Give your kids the college education they deserve - and don't worry about breaking the bank."
Get those things running smoothly and campaign on adding additional things one at a time. "Look how well we're running the health service, why not do public transportation too?" is a stronger argument.
I think that at least on the mefite side, most of us can get together on the outcomes. If we really say, "We are committed to giving everyone safe, comfortable, stable housing, we'll keep bashing away at the problem until we solve it and we're not afraid to spend money", for instance, we're far more likely to be able to unite around candidates than if we fight about personalities.
And it gives us a much clearer metric for specific politicians, too. Any given politician either is or is not actually working plausibly hard on important problems. That's discernable. IMO, the problem isn't so much that Pelosi isn't a socialist, it's that a lot of centrist Democrats are not really especially interested in solving the problems at hand - partly because of their characters, partly because of how politics works and partly because a group composed almost exclusively of wealthy white people can never really represent a diverse and non-wealthy population.
posted by Frowner at 6:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
But if he were to, eg, tweet that he was sending troops to prevent seating the representatives or something totally bananas but not unlikely like that, who would stop him? He could say he was sending the National Guard. Seriously, we've been on a knife edge here, where I think there's been a real, serious question about whether the GOP was going to allow even our compromised elections if it meant losing anything. I think it was more likely than not that elections would proceed as normal, but I have been pretty worried that they'd decide to go for broke.
~~~
Here is another socialism versus liberalism proposal:
Let's start with US-definition-socialist policies that are popular, make them work and argue from there. The vast majority of Americans would go for basically socialized medicine, for instance. Here is a poster idea, for free:
"See the doctor whenever you need to - don't worry about the cost" with a little slogan "It's a socialist idea!"
And another:
"Get the medical care you need - don't worry about pre-existing conditions"
I think we could pretty easily get support for college like they used to run it in the UK, where it's free and you get a living stipend.
"Give your kids the college education they deserve - and don't worry about breaking the bank."
Get those things running smoothly and campaign on adding additional things one at a time. "Look how well we're running the health service, why not do public transportation too?" is a stronger argument.
I think that at least on the mefite side, most of us can get together on the outcomes. If we really say, "We are committed to giving everyone safe, comfortable, stable housing, we'll keep bashing away at the problem until we solve it and we're not afraid to spend money", for instance, we're far more likely to be able to unite around candidates than if we fight about personalities.
And it gives us a much clearer metric for specific politicians, too. Any given politician either is or is not actually working plausibly hard on important problems. That's discernable. IMO, the problem isn't so much that Pelosi isn't a socialist, it's that a lot of centrist Democrats are not really especially interested in solving the problems at hand - partly because of their characters, partly because of how politics works and partly because a group composed almost exclusively of wealthy white people can never really represent a diverse and non-wealthy population.
posted by Frowner at 6:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
I'm catching up on all the election news and I'm so happy for you all. Some of the attention-grabbing races were lost, but so many down ticket races were won. And that's where all the heavy lifting happens. It gives me hope that more can be done.
If you were one of the many doing so much volunteering to get this result, please do try to take a little break to burn off the stress and think about something else, even if it's just for a day or two. Log off, go scream into a pillow or run around the block, hug your loved ones and eat a cake. The work will still be there later and you can't afford to get burnt out.
posted by harriet vane at 6:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
If you were one of the many doing so much volunteering to get this result, please do try to take a little break to burn off the stress and think about something else, even if it's just for a day or two. Log off, go scream into a pillow or run around the block, hug your loved ones and eat a cake. The work will still be there later and you can't afford to get burnt out.
posted by harriet vane at 6:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Thank you to each and every one of you who donated, phone banked, knocked doors, stuffed envelopes, drove people to polls, ordered pizza, or helped out in any other way! I have a feeling of hope this morning than I haven't had in 2 years and I damn near forgot what it feels like.
posted by cmfletcher at 6:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by cmfletcher at 6:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
I have yet to process a lot of the disappointing things, because right now my brain is mostly going YEAH SUCK IT SCOTT WALKER.
posted by elsietheeel at 6:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [68 favorites]
posted by elsietheeel at 6:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [68 favorites]
Just want to shout out to my neighbor Nevada - Dem Steve Sisolak is going to be the new Governor, beating out a man whose own family didn't want to see him elected. And Dem Jacky Rosen joins Catherine Cortez Masto as Nevada Senator - another state with TWO Dem women in the Senate! See what can be done with something like the Reid Machine?
The path forward for Democrats truly looks to be diversity. We're sending more women, LGBT people, Muslims, Native Americans, to Congress and state houses than ever before. I'm glad to see us being the big tent in that regard. "Electability" needs a good hard second look.
I think we did have a blue wave - we just had impossible expectations for how it would play out. What we had was a good, even great start, and we need to build on that. And remember, when Beto and Andrew run, even if they lose heartbreakingly, they help pull up downballot races. Face it, we're still looking at the aftermath of the long, cozy nap we took at the local and state levels after Obama was elected. That - not so much centrism - was the big mistake we made. Let's not make it again.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [57 favorites]
The path forward for Democrats truly looks to be diversity. We're sending more women, LGBT people, Muslims, Native Americans, to Congress and state houses than ever before. I'm glad to see us being the big tent in that regard. "Electability" needs a good hard second look.
I think we did have a blue wave - we just had impossible expectations for how it would play out. What we had was a good, even great start, and we need to build on that. And remember, when Beto and Andrew run, even if they lose heartbreakingly, they help pull up downballot races. Face it, we're still looking at the aftermath of the long, cozy nap we took at the local and state levels after Obama was elected. That - not so much centrism - was the big mistake we made. Let's not make it again.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [57 favorites]
Democratic Socialists are like that cousin who watches you slowly build your side hustle into a self-supporting business, then decides they want to go into the same business, so they expect you to hand over all the tools and advice that helped you succeed so they can become your direct competition. Then when youâre not into that idea, they get all mad and act like itâs because you donât care about the family, as if you have no real right to the fruits of the labor you performed.
posted by Autumnheart at 7:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 7:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
The media is still stuck in "Dems in disarray" mode and frankly at this point, fuck 'em. Doesn't matter what we do, somehow we are just hapless and helpless. It's a lie and it's a dumb lie, but it persists because of Reasons.
Meanwhile, we just keep working. I was so full of dread for this election--being a Texas dem gets you used to heartbreak--but it was also fear that every good result would be suppressed or stolen, I think. But they weren't! Actual good things happened, and you guys, it's been A WHILE since I could say that.
I know we are still looking at an incredibly steep slope and any number of dirty tricks could occur, and the Republicans and their Russian allies are still as dangerous as a copperhead living under your front porch. I know between now and 2020 is going to include more terrible things, and even after, and that we are still staring down the barrel of whether we will climate-change ourselves out of existence. Still very possible.
But in the meantime, I feel energized and I want to fight, and that feels so good. It's been a long 24 months.
posted by emjaybee at 7:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
Meanwhile, we just keep working. I was so full of dread for this election--being a Texas dem gets you used to heartbreak--but it was also fear that every good result would be suppressed or stolen, I think. But they weren't! Actual good things happened, and you guys, it's been A WHILE since I could say that.
I know we are still looking at an incredibly steep slope and any number of dirty tricks could occur, and the Republicans and their Russian allies are still as dangerous as a copperhead living under your front porch. I know between now and 2020 is going to include more terrible things, and even after, and that we are still staring down the barrel of whether we will climate-change ourselves out of existence. Still very possible.
But in the meantime, I feel energized and I want to fight, and that feels so good. It's been a long 24 months.
posted by emjaybee at 7:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
It's early yet, but the numbers seem to indicate that the Blue Wave did materialize and we got a 7 point, or possibly more, win in terms of total votes cast for the House.
And out of that seven point win we got an incredibly narrow four vote majority in the House.
In a system that wasn't gerrymandered all to hell we would be seeing the Democrats holding a 30 vote majority at the very least.
Which puts those 333 state level seats we won, and breaking three Republican trifectas at the state level, as almost more important than winning the House. Because we desperately need to implement anti-gerrymandering laws in every state we possibly can.
We're entering a future where Republican dominance of the Senate is pretty much guaranteed. We've got a low chance at taking the senate in 2020, technically it's a better chance than this year because more Republicans are up for reelection, but in practice it's not really much better because almost all the Republicans up for reelection in 2020 are in safe seats.
This makes having the House really our only chance at having any Congressional level influence, and that makes getting rid of gerrymandering at the state level a top priority. And one where we can expect the US Supreme Court to impede us at every step.
Back in 2010 the Republicans launched REDMAP, a project that invested a significant amount of money in key state level races to take those state governments and gerrymander them. A BLUEMAP project is going to be significantly more difficult thanks to the Republican success at gerrymandering, but it's really our only way forward.
We've been used to having the Supreme Court give us some of our key victories, but that's over now. So we've got to take the harder, much less certain, route of trying to flip state level governments our way.
So my big question here is: where is project BLUEMAP and how can I help get it funded, implemented, and active.
Because the Senate is a write off. The Republicans will own it forever and not even a Blue Tsunami will change that. The House is our only hope, so where is the Democratic effort to take control of state governments that are currently purple or pink, flip them blue, and then ban gerrymandering in those states?
posted by sotonohito at 7:01 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
And out of that seven point win we got an incredibly narrow four vote majority in the House.
In a system that wasn't gerrymandered all to hell we would be seeing the Democrats holding a 30 vote majority at the very least.
Which puts those 333 state level seats we won, and breaking three Republican trifectas at the state level, as almost more important than winning the House. Because we desperately need to implement anti-gerrymandering laws in every state we possibly can.
We're entering a future where Republican dominance of the Senate is pretty much guaranteed. We've got a low chance at taking the senate in 2020, technically it's a better chance than this year because more Republicans are up for reelection, but in practice it's not really much better because almost all the Republicans up for reelection in 2020 are in safe seats.
This makes having the House really our only chance at having any Congressional level influence, and that makes getting rid of gerrymandering at the state level a top priority. And one where we can expect the US Supreme Court to impede us at every step.
Back in 2010 the Republicans launched REDMAP, a project that invested a significant amount of money in key state level races to take those state governments and gerrymander them. A BLUEMAP project is going to be significantly more difficult thanks to the Republican success at gerrymandering, but it's really our only way forward.
We've been used to having the Supreme Court give us some of our key victories, but that's over now. So we've got to take the harder, much less certain, route of trying to flip state level governments our way.
So my big question here is: where is project BLUEMAP and how can I help get it funded, implemented, and active.
Because the Senate is a write off. The Republicans will own it forever and not even a Blue Tsunami will change that. The House is our only hope, so where is the Democratic effort to take control of state governments that are currently purple or pink, flip them blue, and then ban gerrymandering in those states?
posted by sotonohito at 7:01 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
Iâm not a revolutionary leftist then. Iâm also not about to be converted into one. I work my ass off on climate change but donât think the state apparatus is on the cusp of seizing the factories. Truth be told, I donât even want that.
If Iâm no longer acceptable to the pure-left as a Democrat â if Iâm going to be cast as The Guy Who Stands in the Way of MLK â then Iâll walk and you can enjoy your self-righteous rump party.
posted by argybarg at 7:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
If Iâm no longer acceptable to the pure-left as a Democrat â if Iâm going to be cast as The Guy Who Stands in the Way of MLK â then Iâll walk and you can enjoy your self-righteous rump party.
posted by argybarg at 7:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Going forward, the Democratic party is going to have to figure out how to appeal to rural America. The vast red landscape in most of the country is terrifying.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 7:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Maybe we can appeal to rural America by purging them of centrists.
posted by argybarg at 7:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 7:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Pelosi's job is to count votes to ensure wins and advance the party's policy, and to thwart the opposition. She is really fucking good at it. What you want is new blood at House Whip. Then you will have Nancy Bad-Ass Pelosi counting votes and ensuring wins on a younger, more progressive platform.
posted by Slap*Happy at 7:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by Slap*Happy at 7:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
Has Scott Walker conceded yet? Does a concession carry any actual meaning?
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:05 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:05 AM on November 7, 2018
Man it's really demoralizing to see the American left do exactly what the South American left does.
Like if you have two okay chocolate cakes on the table and a pile of shit next to them, I feel like the focus should be on the pile of shit, but no, let's talk about how cake number one is too sweet and cake number 2 has too much frosting.
posted by Tarumba at 7:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [64 favorites]
Like if you have two okay chocolate cakes on the table and a pile of shit next to them, I feel like the focus should be on the pile of shit, but no, let's talk about how cake number one is too sweet and cake number 2 has too much frosting.
posted by Tarumba at 7:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [64 favorites]
Iâm a moderate Democrat who is fairly radical on some issues and cautious on others. Iâm availabe for long-knife target practice if anyone is in the mood.
posted by argybarg at 8:37 AM on November 7 [2 favorites +] [!]
Eponysterical!
posted by LizBoBiz at 7:07 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by argybarg at 8:37 AM on November 7 [2 favorites +] [!]
Eponysterical!
posted by LizBoBiz at 7:07 AM on November 7, 2018
Maybe we can appeal to rural America by purging them of centrists.
A lot of rural America is the working poor who feel they have been left out. Real or not, I think this is the mindset.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:07 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
A lot of rural America is the working poor who feel they have been left out. Real or not, I think this is the mindset.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:07 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Meanwhile, Democratic Socialist Marc Elrich handily defeated famed Washington Bullets heckler Robin Ficker and hero of the landed gentry Nancy Floreen in the Montgomery County Executive race.
There's a lot of Montgomery County's "progressive until it threatens my property values" style that makes me crazy, but oh was it good to see her just get destroyed.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 7:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
There's a lot of Montgomery County's "progressive until it threatens my property values" style that makes me crazy, but oh was it good to see her just get destroyed.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 7:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
I was still bummed that the bogus bullshit crime victims' right amendment passed, when it clearly is a butt sling for politicians who get caught doing heinous things.
Versions of the crime victims bill of rights passed yesterday in six states: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky*, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The law is based on California's Marsy's Law, and it's being pushed by the group Marsy's Law for All. Key provisions include:
posted by peeedro at 7:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Versions of the crime victims bill of rights passed yesterday in six states: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky*, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The law is based on California's Marsy's Law, and it's being pushed by the group Marsy's Law for All. Key provisions include:
- The right to be notified about and present at proceedings.
- The right to be heard at proceedings involving release, plea, sentencing, disposition, or parole of the accused.
- The right to be protected from the accused.
- The right to be notified about release or escape of the accused.
- The right to refuse an interview or deposition at the request of the accused.
- The right to receive restitution from the individual who committed the criminal offense.
posted by peeedro at 7:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
argybarg, you canvassed for 1631 in Seattle. You are a hero! Literally no one in this thread has cast you "as The Guy Who Stands in the Way of MLK." Tempers may be flaring but we do not have to give in to them. We do not have to agree on everything to agree that MeFites did a lot of heavy lifting for this election, you were one of them, let's celebrate!
posted by Bella Donna at 7:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 7:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
Mod note: Good morning, in the east coast of the US anyway. Here are some oft-repeated negative generalizations, so we don't need to have seven hundred repetitions and circular arguments about them: Centrists bad, progressives/Dem Socialists bad, rural bad, being mean to trump voters bad, doom and impossibility, etc. Please let's stick to actual news about the actual election results.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [60 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [60 favorites]
Democrat Shannon O'Malley won the election for Cook County 13th Sub-Circuit Judge in the Chicago area yesterday.
This is bad news. This is a terrible thing for electoral and judicial integrity.
Why is this?
This is because Shannon O'Malley was, until a few years ago, a Republican named Phillip Spiwak who ran repeatedly for office unsuccessfully in nearby Will County. In 2012, after doing some market research that showed that candidates are more likely to be elected in this area if they are Irish and have a woman's name, he changed his name to Shannon O'Malley and bided his time. Seeing his chance in the pending blue wave, he registered as a Democrat and ran for a judge position here in Cook County in suburban Chicagoland in an area where Democrats don't usually mount a serious candidate, hoping that well meaning people excited to vote blue would elect him even though he's a Democrat in name only, and a name that is only his because of some court fees at that.
In addition to being a scam artist with a fake name and disingenuous party affiliation, O'Malley received a "not qualified" rating from every applicable legal association in the area. He won 51-49 as part of the blue wave.
I am not making this shit up.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
This is bad news. This is a terrible thing for electoral and judicial integrity.
Why is this?
This is because Shannon O'Malley was, until a few years ago, a Republican named Phillip Spiwak who ran repeatedly for office unsuccessfully in nearby Will County. In 2012, after doing some market research that showed that candidates are more likely to be elected in this area if they are Irish and have a woman's name, he changed his name to Shannon O'Malley and bided his time. Seeing his chance in the pending blue wave, he registered as a Democrat and ran for a judge position here in Cook County in suburban Chicagoland in an area where Democrats don't usually mount a serious candidate, hoping that well meaning people excited to vote blue would elect him even though he's a Democrat in name only, and a name that is only his because of some court fees at that.
In addition to being a scam artist with a fake name and disingenuous party affiliation, O'Malley received a "not qualified" rating from every applicable legal association in the area. He won 51-49 as part of the blue wave.
I am not making this shit up.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
Has Scott Walker conceded yet? Does a concession carry any actual meaning?
No, and no. AP calling it isn't good enough for him, word on Wisconsin Public Radio this morning was that he's waiting for the official certification from the state before calling it over.
Once our AG race is called, I think everyone/everything I voted for won. This is mostly a virtue of living in the Big City, but it's still fun since I don't think that's happened for me ever before.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
No, and no. AP calling it isn't good enough for him, word on Wisconsin Public Radio this morning was that he's waiting for the official certification from the state before calling it over.
Once our AG race is called, I think everyone/everything I voted for won. This is mostly a virtue of living in the Big City, but it's still fun since I don't think that's happened for me ever before.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
The vast red landscape in most of the country is terrifying.
Yeah, but it's empty. Never forget that in terms of numbers, all that red is still a numerical minority.
posted by Miko at 7:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
Yeah, but it's empty. Never forget that in terms of numbers, all that red is still a numerical minority.
posted by Miko at 7:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
sotonohito: where is the Democratic effort to take control of state governments that are currently purple or pink, flip them blue, and then ban gerrymandering in those states?
This whole comment is excellent. Sotonohito, would you mind if I took a screencap and posted it to twitter and tumblr? I can include or exclude your username as you prefer.
posted by tzikeh at 7:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
This whole comment is excellent. Sotonohito, would you mind if I took a screencap and posted it to twitter and tumblr? I can include or exclude your username as you prefer.
posted by tzikeh at 7:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
For everyone who's using "Pelosi and Schumer" to mean "stale old people at the top of the Democratic Party", let's at least recall which one gained enough seats to take back control of their half of Congress, and which one lost seats in their half of Congress.
posted by Etrigan at 7:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [45 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 7:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [45 favorites]
Democrat Tony Evers narrowly led the Wisconsin gubernatorial race against Walker 49.6% to 48.4%, or by 1.2%, as of Tuesday morning.
Scott Walker, Wisconsin's Republican governor, was ousted from office in the state's closest governor's race in more than 50 years in Tuesday's midterm electionsâ and he won't be able to ask for a recount because of a law he put into place.
With 99% of votes reported on Wednesday morning, Democrat Tony Evers narrowly led the Wisconsin gubernatorial race against Walker 49.6% to 48.4%, according to the Associated Press.
After President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes, Walker signed into law a measure mandating that future recounts would only be allowed when the loser is within 1% of the winner.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
Scott Walker, Wisconsin's Republican governor, was ousted from office in the state's closest governor's race in more than 50 years in Tuesday's midterm electionsâ and he won't be able to ask for a recount because of a law he put into place.
With 99% of votes reported on Wednesday morning, Democrat Tony Evers narrowly led the Wisconsin gubernatorial race against Walker 49.6% to 48.4%, according to the Associated Press.
After President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes, Walker signed into law a measure mandating that future recounts would only be allowed when the loser is within 1% of the winner.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
Going forward, the Democratic party is going to have to figure out how to appeal to rural America. The vast red landscape in most of the country is terrifying.
I think if we keep plugging away at the Kander/O'Rourke/Scholten model of going out to Republican strongholds and saying your piece and not backing down on your principles we'll see it pay off.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [52 favorites]
I think if we keep plugging away at the Kander/O'Rourke/Scholten model of going out to Republican strongholds and saying your piece and not backing down on your principles we'll see it pay off.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [52 favorites]
South Carolina, the state that's too small to be a republic and too large to be an insane asylum!
SC is all kinds of fucked up so we chose Henry McMaster, a corrupt slumlord from a family of sexual predators, felons, and no-accounts over our own Beto to be governor. But Joe Cunningham did flip Mark Sanford's old district against an opponent who tied herself tightly to Trump. And Dick Harpootlian flipped a State House seat previously held by a Republican who resigned over corruption charges he initially called "a witch hunt." I mean, eh, Dick's better than the alternative, but he's kind of, uh, a dick, too, so I'm not hugely thrilled, but whatever. In the evening's other closely watched race, Archie Parnell, the Democrat, failed to flip Mick Mulvaney's old seat and I'm not even unhappy about that because Parnell's a shitstain who refused to drop out of his race even after evidence of his spousal abuse surfaced.
My friends and I did flip between the returns and Man In The High Castle while drinking leftover Belgians and probably as a result I was conflating the two in a half-dream when I woke up this morning. That was weird.
posted by octobersurprise at 7:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
SC is all kinds of fucked up so we chose Henry McMaster, a corrupt slumlord from a family of sexual predators, felons, and no-accounts over our own Beto to be governor. But Joe Cunningham did flip Mark Sanford's old district against an opponent who tied herself tightly to Trump. And Dick Harpootlian flipped a State House seat previously held by a Republican who resigned over corruption charges he initially called "a witch hunt." I mean, eh, Dick's better than the alternative, but he's kind of, uh, a dick, too, so I'm not hugely thrilled, but whatever. In the evening's other closely watched race, Archie Parnell, the Democrat, failed to flip Mick Mulvaney's old seat and I'm not even unhappy about that because Parnell's a shitstain who refused to drop out of his race even after evidence of his spousal abuse surfaced.
My friends and I did flip between the returns and Man In The High Castle while drinking leftover Belgians and probably as a result I was conflating the two in a half-dream when I woke up this morning. That was weird.
posted by octobersurprise at 7:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
After President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes, Walker signed into law a measure mandating that future recounts would only be allowed when the loser is within 1% of the winner.
Eh. It was really after Jill Stein's recount after Trump won Wisconsin. I don't think this was due to Walker trying to hold on to power or anything, though the bill was lead by the Republicans.
It's absolutely still funny though.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Eh. It was really after Jill Stein's recount after Trump won Wisconsin. I don't think this was due to Walker trying to hold on to power or anything, though the bill was lead by the Republicans.
It's absolutely still funny though.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:19 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
The vast red landscape in most of the country is terrifying.
Yeah, but it's empty. Never forget that in terms of numbers, all that red is still a numerical minority.
But the 580,000 people who live in Wyoming still get the same two senate seats as the nine million people who live in New Jersey, so our only hope is to eliminate gerrymandering to keep control of the House. we have to fight hard to eliminate all the gerrymandering in the more populous states. That means electing Democratic state governments.
posted by tzikeh at 7:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Yeah, but it's empty. Never forget that in terms of numbers, all that red is still a numerical minority.
But the 580,000 people who live in Wyoming still get the same two senate seats as the nine million people who live in New Jersey, so our only hope is to eliminate gerrymandering to keep control of the House. we have to fight hard to eliminate all the gerrymandering in the more populous states. That means electing Democratic state governments.
posted by tzikeh at 7:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
and he won't be able to ask for a recount because of a law he put into place
Thank you for sharing this tasty morsel! It prompted my exclusive "congratulations - you played yourself" cackle with a celebratory "Fuck you, Scott Walker!".
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
Thank you for sharing this tasty morsel! It prompted my exclusive "congratulations - you played yourself" cackle with a celebratory "Fuck you, Scott Walker!".
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
I think if we keep plugging away at the Kander/O'Rourke/Scholten model of going out to Republican strongholds and saying your piece and not backing down on your principles we'll see it pay off.
I hope so. And I don't want to be a party pooper at the Metafilter post-election party and I'm super happy about the flip of the House. But I wish the election - even with all of the successes - wasn't a more full throated rout of Trump. And I'm thinking about 2020 and this midterm gives me reason to believe that Trump has more than a good chance of re-election, and that thought leads me to what can the Democratic party do to get to a broader base of support.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I hope so. And I don't want to be a party pooper at the Metafilter post-election party and I'm super happy about the flip of the House. But I wish the election - even with all of the successes - wasn't a more full throated rout of Trump. And I'm thinking about 2020 and this midterm gives me reason to believe that Trump has more than a good chance of re-election, and that thought leads me to what can the Democratic party do to get to a broader base of support.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
bluesky43 If you've got any ideas on how to do that I'm all ears.
Unfortunately the rural parts of America seem to be Republican mostly based out of sheer racism and white supremacy.
Clinton and many, many, other Democrats keep appealing to them on financial grounds, presenting jobs programs, economic incentives, and they keep voting for xenophobia over their financial best interest.
Its like LBJ said: "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
The simple fact is that a majority in rural America prioritize racism over pretty much everything else, and on that basis it is entirely rational for them to vote Republican.
They talk about feeling left out, but when people (like Clinton) try to include them they give her the bird and vote for the guy who promises to abuse minorities the most. I think continuing to believe that trying to appeal to the self proclaimed desire for more inclusion or better economic options among the rural Republican voters is foolhardy.
We're back to the problem of the two competing visions for America. They're supportive of the idea of America as a white Christian ethnostate, and they aren't going to vote for us melting pot types no matter what economic incentives we offer.
Further, resident Republican whisperer corb has noted on several occasions that often Republican voting people feel deeply insulted by any direct talk about economic help. They want the help, but it has to be disguised as hating black people and promoting white supremacy rather than economic help. And I don't think the Democrats will be supportive of even a pretense of embracing white supremacy as a way to trick rural America into taking the economic aid it so desperately needs.
miko Yes, it's empty, but it's also highly over represented. Especially in the Senate, but also in the House. If we could find a way to flip some of those vast empty acres blue it'd be really handy.
I just can't think of a way that'd work because basically they vote Republican because the Democrats aren't racist enough.
tzikeh Sure! Include my name or not as you prefer, it's all the same to me!
posted by sotonohito at 7:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
Unfortunately the rural parts of America seem to be Republican mostly based out of sheer racism and white supremacy.
Clinton and many, many, other Democrats keep appealing to them on financial grounds, presenting jobs programs, economic incentives, and they keep voting for xenophobia over their financial best interest.
Its like LBJ said: "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
The simple fact is that a majority in rural America prioritize racism over pretty much everything else, and on that basis it is entirely rational for them to vote Republican.
They talk about feeling left out, but when people (like Clinton) try to include them they give her the bird and vote for the guy who promises to abuse minorities the most. I think continuing to believe that trying to appeal to the self proclaimed desire for more inclusion or better economic options among the rural Republican voters is foolhardy.
We're back to the problem of the two competing visions for America. They're supportive of the idea of America as a white Christian ethnostate, and they aren't going to vote for us melting pot types no matter what economic incentives we offer.
Further, resident Republican whisperer corb has noted on several occasions that often Republican voting people feel deeply insulted by any direct talk about economic help. They want the help, but it has to be disguised as hating black people and promoting white supremacy rather than economic help. And I don't think the Democrats will be supportive of even a pretense of embracing white supremacy as a way to trick rural America into taking the economic aid it so desperately needs.
miko Yes, it's empty, but it's also highly over represented. Especially in the Senate, but also in the House. If we could find a way to flip some of those vast empty acres blue it'd be really handy.
I just can't think of a way that'd work because basically they vote Republican because the Democrats aren't racist enough.
tzikeh Sure! Include my name or not as you prefer, it's all the same to me!
posted by sotonohito at 7:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
But Joe Cunningham did flip Mark Sanford's old district against an opponent who tied herself tightly to Trump.
And recall that Sanford was one of the more vocal anti-Trumpists in the House (to a point), and Trump publicly threatened him, and ended up supporting his primary opponent, which was one of those primary wins that people were counting as a "Trump victory" right up until last night. Battle, war, yaddada yaddada.
posted by Etrigan at 7:23 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
And recall that Sanford was one of the more vocal anti-Trumpists in the House (to a point), and Trump publicly threatened him, and ended up supporting his primary opponent, which was one of those primary wins that people were counting as a "Trump victory" right up until last night. Battle, war, yaddada yaddada.
posted by Etrigan at 7:23 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I can't overstate how bummed I am bout Gillum's narrow loss. That $15 minimum wage would have really helped me out. Not to mention higher salaries for the teachers who will be teaching my son for the next decade or so, and some kind of action on gun control that might prevent future mass-murders.
And with Scott joining Rubio, it's going to be open season on resource extraction, pollution (we had the worst red tide I've ever seen this year, and I've lived on the east coast for most of 35 years), privatized for-profit schools & prisons; smug performative Christianity shoved down our throats, whining about Venezuela. Ugh. Fuck Florida. I wish I could move, but I can't afford to because of the shitty wages!
posted by Kitty Stardust at 7:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
And with Scott joining Rubio, it's going to be open season on resource extraction, pollution (we had the worst red tide I've ever seen this year, and I've lived on the east coast for most of 35 years), privatized for-profit schools & prisons; smug performative Christianity shoved down our throats, whining about Venezuela. Ugh. Fuck Florida. I wish I could move, but I can't afford to because of the shitty wages!
posted by Kitty Stardust at 7:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
The simple fact is that a majority in rural America prioritize racism over pretty much everything else, and on that basis it is entirely rational for them to vote Republican.
White rural America, sure. The trick is making sure that nonwhites in rural counties can vote, and giving them a reason to believe that the candidates will actually do something for them and not take their votes for granted.
Rural america is a hell of a lot more brown and black than people seem to realize, especially in the south.
posted by dinty_moore at 7:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [60 favorites]
White rural America, sure. The trick is making sure that nonwhites in rural counties can vote, and giving them a reason to believe that the candidates will actually do something for them and not take their votes for granted.
Rural america is a hell of a lot more brown and black than people seem to realize, especially in the south.
posted by dinty_moore at 7:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [60 favorites]
Look at Michigan and Voters Not Politicians for how to get an anti-gerrymandering ballot measure passed. I was involved with the early parts of this campaign in 2016, and this was a true grass-roots batch of people who met each other over Facebook and pounded the pavement until it fucking cried to get this thing passed.
posted by Etrigan at 7:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 7:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
So my big question here is: where is project BLUEMAP and how can I help get it funded, implemented, and active.
Given the amount of granular data that's now available, both public domain and available from private data brokers, the only way forward is independent districting. Trouble is, you typically need a legislative majority and/or constitutional amendment to get that.
One thing to note: these elections were drawn using 2010 census data (apart from states that rejiggered their maps mid-decade or had court-ordered maps imposed upon them) and one would expect the gerrymander to have unwound somewhat: people die, young people turn 18, people move. 2020 is going to matter a lot at the state level, and the post-2010 gerrymander will be at its weakest.
That doesn't address the clustering effect -- if anything, coherent tightly-drawn urban districts are more likely to reinforce it -- and that's a real problem going forward in terms of mutual distrust and resentment between urban and rural voters. That's especially true in states like NC that don't have municipal "home rule", where the state legislature can tinker with the election systems, powers and revenue sources of cities.
posted by holgate at 7:28 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Given the amount of granular data that's now available, both public domain and available from private data brokers, the only way forward is independent districting. Trouble is, you typically need a legislative majority and/or constitutional amendment to get that.
One thing to note: these elections were drawn using 2010 census data (apart from states that rejiggered their maps mid-decade or had court-ordered maps imposed upon them) and one would expect the gerrymander to have unwound somewhat: people die, young people turn 18, people move. 2020 is going to matter a lot at the state level, and the post-2010 gerrymander will be at its weakest.
That doesn't address the clustering effect -- if anything, coherent tightly-drawn urban districts are more likely to reinforce it -- and that's a real problem going forward in terms of mutual distrust and resentment between urban and rural voters. That's especially true in states like NC that don't have municipal "home rule", where the state legislature can tinker with the election systems, powers and revenue sources of cities.
posted by holgate at 7:28 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
miko Yes, it's empty, but it's also highly over represented. Especially in the Senate, but also in the House. If we could find a way to flip some of those vast empty acres blue it'd be really handy.
For clarity: that's not my comment, that was someone responding to me.
I fully agree the next and most important battle is gerrymandering - and access to the vote. And fighting voter apathy, which is now a total tool and (very clearly) a successful campaign of the right.
posted by Miko at 7:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
For clarity: that's not my comment, that was someone responding to me.
I fully agree the next and most important battle is gerrymandering - and access to the vote. And fighting voter apathy, which is now a total tool and (very clearly) a successful campaign of the right.
posted by Miko at 7:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
On the topic of red states, the Missouri results present an astonishing case study. Claire McCaskill went down hard last night, leaving us with two absolutely awful Republican senators. The spectacularly awful Republican governor resigned due to corruption early in the year, leaving us with his slightly less awful Republican replacement. With the exception of Kansas City and St. Louis, every district voted in a Republican representative by a landslide. The state previously went to Trump by a large margin.
And yet, just two months ago Missouri overwhelmingly rejected Right-to-Work... the centerpiece legislation promoted by formerly mentioned spectacularly awful governor. Last night, resounding wins, like 2 to 1 wins, for Dem-supported redistricting reform, medical marijuana, and raising the minimum wage.
Seems like Missouri voters hate Democratic candidates... but love Democratic policy positions.
I'm feeling the sting of Claire's loss today (as well as House candidates I supported who lost hugely) but I still believe there's got to be a way that Dems can win here. Voters obviously support the Dem platform... they're just too stubbornly aligned with their Republican identity politics to actually vote D. I don't know how to break that but we've got to keep trying. I'm not giving up yet.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 7:33 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
And yet, just two months ago Missouri overwhelmingly rejected Right-to-Work... the centerpiece legislation promoted by formerly mentioned spectacularly awful governor. Last night, resounding wins, like 2 to 1 wins, for Dem-supported redistricting reform, medical marijuana, and raising the minimum wage.
Seems like Missouri voters hate Democratic candidates... but love Democratic policy positions.
I'm feeling the sting of Claire's loss today (as well as House candidates I supported who lost hugely) but I still believe there's got to be a way that Dems can win here. Voters obviously support the Dem platform... they're just too stubbornly aligned with their Republican identity politics to actually vote D. I don't know how to break that but we've got to keep trying. I'm not giving up yet.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 7:33 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
CT Governor Race: Bob Stefanowski (R) concedes to Ned Lamont (D). Lamont to be CT Governor.
Sorry for no link-can't do it on phone. Danbury News Times article.
posted by sundrop at 7:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Sorry for no link-can't do it on phone. Danbury News Times article.
posted by sundrop at 7:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
This is the 3rd time in two years that someone tried to buy an election outright in Montgomery County and lost (Trone, Blair, now Floreen). I hope they stop trying, but I'm sure they won't. Anyway, all the developer money in the world and Floreen barely got more votes than the guy whose greatest achievement in life was getting banned from the 1993 NBA Playoffs for heckling! I'm just going to bask in that knowledge for a minute.It's still troubling, because "developer money" is pretty much equated to "letting new people into the county." Elrich ran on a radical anti-growth agenda that's going to close the county's doors to new residents. He claimed that a public transportation project would lead to "ethnic cleansing" (using those words) to win the support of the wealthy suburbanites that don't want a transit line in their backyards.
He says lot of things that make Democrats smile and nod, and offers nothing in the way of solutions, covertly handing the white suburban landowners the stasis that they so desperately want.
Montgomery County seems determined to adopt all of the Bay Area's problems, without having any of its redeeming qualities.
Honestly, both candidates were terrible. Neither promoted a positive vision for the future. I worry about Montgomery County a lot.
posted by schmod at 7:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
GA-GOV: While it's tempting to throw Abrams under the bus as too radical before the provisional ballots have been certified, the reason why she's 30,000 votes away from a recount is because she fought for that turnout and those registrations and Kemp fought against them. That included groundwork for funding, GOTV, and legal challenges to voter suppression. Maybe we should spend less time blaming each other for punching back and more time looking at the extremely dirty Republican campaigns, not only in GA but in FL and TX as well.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 7:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [45 favorites]
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 7:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [45 favorites]
The AFL-CIOâs statement about Scott Walker quoted in entirety:
Scott Walker was a national disgrace.posted by chrchr at 7:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [94 favorites]
A lot of rural America is the working poor who feel they have been left out. Real or not, I think this is the mindset.
And they have been left out. Just like the rest of us. The last several decades of American life has been money, jobs, opportunities and civil rights being sucked away from average Americans and handed to the extremely rich, who have spent a ton of money and effort for that privilege.
My favorite metaphor for America is a slider bar, like a Bass <> Treble knob on an old stereo. Imagine that that knob controls where any given segment of the government's efforts should be focused. It can go all the way left or right, sit in the middle, or nudge a bit to either side.
The left side says not Bass, but WE. Improve the general welfare. Promote the common good. Maximize help towards the people who need it the most. Do as much good as possible for as many people as possible. Raise the foundation of America and work from the bottom up.
The right side says not Treble, but ME. What can government do for ME, specifically? Remove oversight, deregulate everything, get out of the way so that each person can soar as high or sink as low as their circumstances dictate. My individual freedoms are more important than fairness. Fuck you, got mine, I'm all right Jack get your hands off of my stack.
Many of these poor and downtrodden would not only benefit greatly from WE efforts, but are in fact poster children for those efforts. But the American right has spent decades barking a populist message about a nebulous Other, a They, and how these poor people are 'left out' because the government took away all the money and power and influence and authority that is rightfully theirs and handed it to THEM. THEM takes many forms and you can rattle off dozens of groups that qualify for it.
Some fractions of those resources really did go to THEM. Because THEY need the help, too, and desperately so. Because they were lacking civil rights and recognition as actual Americans and are finally receiving some of it. But most of it got vacuumed upwards.
There are people who look down on THEM because they're simply self-centered. There are those who look down on THEM because they consider themselves part of a higher caste of Americans, whether from tradition or skin color or upbringing or birth circumstances or what they heard on talk radio. There are people who look down on THEM because they've been shouted at that they should from all directions.
But the key to moving America forward, if it is to move forward at all, is to frame issues in ways that make the 'left out' understand that they, too are part of WE. That efforts to benefit WE benefit them directly. That civil rights are not zero-sum; minority groups getting a seat at the table does not diminish their role, unless it is to rebalance an outsized role they never should have had in the first place. To get them to recognize that rebalancing as fair without making the 'left out' feel they are being cheated, by making it clear that they, too are part of the target groups to be helped.
That's the message. You bring in the 'left out' by promoting public policy that addresses what they need as part of a greater effort. There will be those who are unreachable, who are completely self-absorbed or are brainwashed about THEM or simply feel like white people deserve everything more. But I'm reminded a bit of how right-wing people love a lot of things about Obamacare when it's not specifically CALLED Obamacare... because they recognize that they, too benefit from them.
Threading that particular needle in the face of the Mirror Universe Media Machine is left as an exercise for the reader.
posted by delfin at 7:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [36 favorites]
And they have been left out. Just like the rest of us. The last several decades of American life has been money, jobs, opportunities and civil rights being sucked away from average Americans and handed to the extremely rich, who have spent a ton of money and effort for that privilege.
My favorite metaphor for America is a slider bar, like a Bass <> Treble knob on an old stereo. Imagine that that knob controls where any given segment of the government's efforts should be focused. It can go all the way left or right, sit in the middle, or nudge a bit to either side.
The left side says not Bass, but WE. Improve the general welfare. Promote the common good. Maximize help towards the people who need it the most. Do as much good as possible for as many people as possible. Raise the foundation of America and work from the bottom up.
The right side says not Treble, but ME. What can government do for ME, specifically? Remove oversight, deregulate everything, get out of the way so that each person can soar as high or sink as low as their circumstances dictate. My individual freedoms are more important than fairness. Fuck you, got mine, I'm all right Jack get your hands off of my stack.
Many of these poor and downtrodden would not only benefit greatly from WE efforts, but are in fact poster children for those efforts. But the American right has spent decades barking a populist message about a nebulous Other, a They, and how these poor people are 'left out' because the government took away all the money and power and influence and authority that is rightfully theirs and handed it to THEM. THEM takes many forms and you can rattle off dozens of groups that qualify for it.
Some fractions of those resources really did go to THEM. Because THEY need the help, too, and desperately so. Because they were lacking civil rights and recognition as actual Americans and are finally receiving some of it. But most of it got vacuumed upwards.
There are people who look down on THEM because they're simply self-centered. There are those who look down on THEM because they consider themselves part of a higher caste of Americans, whether from tradition or skin color or upbringing or birth circumstances or what they heard on talk radio. There are people who look down on THEM because they've been shouted at that they should from all directions.
But the key to moving America forward, if it is to move forward at all, is to frame issues in ways that make the 'left out' understand that they, too are part of WE. That efforts to benefit WE benefit them directly. That civil rights are not zero-sum; minority groups getting a seat at the table does not diminish their role, unless it is to rebalance an outsized role they never should have had in the first place. To get them to recognize that rebalancing as fair without making the 'left out' feel they are being cheated, by making it clear that they, too are part of the target groups to be helped.
That's the message. You bring in the 'left out' by promoting public policy that addresses what they need as part of a greater effort. There will be those who are unreachable, who are completely self-absorbed or are brainwashed about THEM or simply feel like white people deserve everything more. But I'm reminded a bit of how right-wing people love a lot of things about Obamacare when it's not specifically CALLED Obamacare... because they recognize that they, too benefit from them.
Threading that particular needle in the face of the Mirror Universe Media Machine is left as an exercise for the reader.
posted by delfin at 7:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [36 favorites]
A lot of rural America is the working poor who feel they have been left out. Real or not, I think this is the mindset.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:07 AM on November 7 [1 favorite +] [!]
Nah, for the most part they're racists who live in a white evangelical monoculture. Their (talented, ambitious) children permanently abandon said monoculture at precipitous rates, leaving the mediocre remnants to stew in their bitterness and resentment. They become reactionaries , whose primary aim is not the advancement of their own values or principles, but rather the hobbling and sabotage of the rest of us. They have bought into a resentment culture (abetted by a reactionary evangelical religious establishment that rightly sees the liberalization of American beliefs as a fundamental threat to their historic social influence) that uses its obsessive focus on othering their fellow citizens as a way to retain a sense a self-righteousness, even as events like the opiod epidemic prove that said self-righteousness is (and probably always was) a sham. I know this because, unlike most people here, I actually live among them and hear their conversations with one another pretty much every single day.
posted by Chrischris at 7:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [67 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 10:07 AM on November 7 [1 favorite +] [!]
Nah, for the most part they're racists who live in a white evangelical monoculture. Their (talented, ambitious) children permanently abandon said monoculture at precipitous rates, leaving the mediocre remnants to stew in their bitterness and resentment. They become reactionaries , whose primary aim is not the advancement of their own values or principles, but rather the hobbling and sabotage of the rest of us. They have bought into a resentment culture (abetted by a reactionary evangelical religious establishment that rightly sees the liberalization of American beliefs as a fundamental threat to their historic social influence) that uses its obsessive focus on othering their fellow citizens as a way to retain a sense a self-righteousness, even as events like the opiod epidemic prove that said self-righteousness is (and probably always was) a sham. I know this because, unlike most people here, I actually live among them and hear their conversations with one another pretty much every single day.
posted by Chrischris at 7:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [67 favorites]
The AFL-CIOâs statement about Scott Walker quoted in entirety:
Scott Walker was a national disgrace.
This is actually one of a series. Got to respect the theme.
posted by dinty_moore at 7:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Scott Walker was a national disgrace.
This is actually one of a series. Got to respect the theme.
posted by dinty_moore at 7:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
A Wave Delayed
"A lot of things that might have happened did not quite happen .... yet."
posted by tzikeh at 7:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by tzikeh at 7:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
But the key to moving America forward, if it is to move forward at all, is to frame issues in ways that make the 'left out' understand that they, too are part of WE. That efforts to benefit WE benefit them directly. That civil rights are not zero-sum; minority groups getting a seat at the table does not diminish their role, unless it is to rebalance an outsized role they never should have had in the first place. To get them to recognize that rebalancing as fair without making the 'left out' feel they are being cheated, by making it clear that they, too are part of the target groups to be helped.
I very much resonate with that analysis delfin. This is what I saw in Beto O'Rourke's message in Texas. He did not prevail but he came close in an incredibly red state against a well funded candidate with the right dog whistles. There's hope in that. But it takes a politician of real skill - and I'm looking for those politicians.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I very much resonate with that analysis delfin. This is what I saw in Beto O'Rourke's message in Texas. He did not prevail but he came close in an incredibly red state against a well funded candidate with the right dog whistles. There's hope in that. But it takes a politician of real skill - and I'm looking for those politicians.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
On the "rural America goes racist" issue: not necessarily. I'm very chuffed to learn that Antonio Delgado won in New York's 19th Congressional District - that includes most of the Catskills and Lower Hudson Valley regions of New York State, and that district went for Trump in 2016. The incumbent, John Faso, was Republican - the district seems to have veered Republican since about 1993 (there was a Demorat during Obama's term in office, but otherwise it's been red).
Faso, or the GOP, turned up the quirk that Delgado was a rapper as a young man, and rolled out this unbelievably racist campaign, quoting his old raps and showing clips from music videos. They also had an ad filled with images of payday loan storefronts, signs about food stamps...completely overlooking the fact that Delgado was a Rhodes Scholar. He was too "urban" for the likes of the Catskills, they were implying! Well, it didn't work - Delgado unseated Faso. It was tight, but he won. And that's a pretty rural area.
I've just had the ironic thought, though - the Hudson Valley and the Catskills are rural, but the demographics are interesting; you've got a lot of rich retirees, but also a lot of Millennial hipsters who've decamped there from Brooklyn in recent years. All the farms at my Brooklyn farmer's market are up in the Hudson Valley, and there are a lot of young white faces behind the farm stalls. It is amusing me greatly to think that the people that put Delgado into office were people like a kid who started an organic mushroom farm just outside Saugerties or something.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Faso, or the GOP, turned up the quirk that Delgado was a rapper as a young man, and rolled out this unbelievably racist campaign, quoting his old raps and showing clips from music videos. They also had an ad filled with images of payday loan storefronts, signs about food stamps...completely overlooking the fact that Delgado was a Rhodes Scholar. He was too "urban" for the likes of the Catskills, they were implying! Well, it didn't work - Delgado unseated Faso. It was tight, but he won. And that's a pretty rural area.
I've just had the ironic thought, though - the Hudson Valley and the Catskills are rural, but the demographics are interesting; you've got a lot of rich retirees, but also a lot of Millennial hipsters who've decamped there from Brooklyn in recent years. All the farms at my Brooklyn farmer's market are up in the Hudson Valley, and there are a lot of young white faces behind the farm stalls. It is amusing me greatly to think that the people that put Delgado into office were people like a kid who started an organic mushroom farm just outside Saugerties or something.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Obama came very, very close to winning Missouri in 2008. Four thousand votes. That's why I think that, while it's easy to blame red rural America on racism, it's not really racism. It's working class, low-education people who haven't seen the world feeling like they're left out and left behind. It's fear and anger and ignorance - which manifests sometimes in racism, for sure. But lots of those people being dismissed as racists voted for Obama, because he gave them hope. Somehow, Trump is also managing to do that right now - but I don't believe it's a given that Republicans will always win these voters. For me, a liberal in a blue city (albeit a red state), it's easy to see which of the parties is genuinely more concerned with making a better life for Americans in those rural areas.
The Democrats have got to figure out how to communicate their policy positions without alienating the people they're trying to help. If they could only do that, they would never lose.
posted by something something at 7:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
The Democrats have got to figure out how to communicate their policy positions without alienating the people they're trying to help. If they could only do that, they would never lose.
posted by something something at 7:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
I've just had the ironic thought, though - the Hudson Valley and the Catskills are rural, but the demographics are interesting; you've got a lot of rich retirees, but also a lot of Millennial hipsters who've decamped there from Brooklyn in recent years. All the farms at my Brooklyn farmer's market are up in the Hudson Valley, and there are a lot of young white faces behind the farm stalls. It is amusing me greatly to think that the people that put Delgado into office were people like a kid who started an organic mushroom farm just outside Saugerties or something.
I think that is a fair assessment. If you look at the rest of upstate NY that doesn't benefit from the NYC escape from the city wealthy, there are a lot of working poor and the rest of upstate is pretty GOP. There are a few pockets of counterpoints - Brindisi just won in NY22 but not by a lot and he had a lot of help from out side of NYS.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think that is a fair assessment. If you look at the rest of upstate NY that doesn't benefit from the NYC escape from the city wealthy, there are a lot of working poor and the rest of upstate is pretty GOP. There are a few pockets of counterpoints - Brindisi just won in NY22 but not by a lot and he had a lot of help from out side of NYS.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
volunteering boyfriend update:
(texting after the polls finally closed, I hadn't seen him all day because he was driving all over the state taking people to polls and making calls and shit)
me: [effusive praise over everything he did that day]
him: i dunno i counted up all the people whose votes directly happened because of me and it was only like six people :(
me: WHAT DO YOU KNOW WHAT A BIG DEAL THAT IS
He felt bad because he'd seen the postcards and texting I'd been doing but I explained that the likelihood that I had convinced six non-voters to vote by my efforts was slim to none.
I see all the arguing here already. But to me the goal here (among many others, of course) is clear. We're pushing back against lying liars who lie. Democratic and socialist ideas are good ideas. If we are clear and direct and non-confrontational, yet unwavering, with friends and acquaintances- especially over the course of two years- I do think people can be convinced. You don't need to go for the big kill and convince people why Trump is evil, the system is rigged, etc etc etc. Just be ready and willing to matter-of-factly explain things that would directly impact peoples lives, for example, what socialized healthcare would actually be like. Yes, you could see a doctor and not pay for it. You would not have to go bankrupt because of huge medical bills. Many, many countries already do this and look how well it works for them, I think we deserve a system like that too. I think some people resist these ideas because they're so used to the status quo that it seems impossible that such things could actually happen so they are distrustful. But by being confident and matter of fact about it, especially in terms of discussing it as an eventuality . . . 'man I can't wait until we have socialized medicine like all these other awesome countries, it'll be such a relief.' get people used to the idea as something that could actually exist and be as good as it sounds until they are there with us demanding it for ourselves.
Be kind, listen, be persistent. Obviously I'm more in favor of using this strategy with those who are apathetic, I'm not trying to convince republicans. But I think there's a lot of ground to be gained in kindly and patiently showing people who think government and politics don't affect them that they are incorrect and that things actually could be better for them. That's how the above-mentioned six new voters were convinced. I don't even think it was hard, because they love and trust him and were ready to listen when he talked to them. So don't give up on your own friends and people you have good relationships who may not be there yet politically. They are listening to you, and if they do get there, who knows how many others they'll bring with them?
posted by robotdevil at 7:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
(texting after the polls finally closed, I hadn't seen him all day because he was driving all over the state taking people to polls and making calls and shit)
me: [effusive praise over everything he did that day]
him: i dunno i counted up all the people whose votes directly happened because of me and it was only like six people :(
me: WHAT DO YOU KNOW WHAT A BIG DEAL THAT IS
He felt bad because he'd seen the postcards and texting I'd been doing but I explained that the likelihood that I had convinced six non-voters to vote by my efforts was slim to none.
I see all the arguing here already. But to me the goal here (among many others, of course) is clear. We're pushing back against lying liars who lie. Democratic and socialist ideas are good ideas. If we are clear and direct and non-confrontational, yet unwavering, with friends and acquaintances- especially over the course of two years- I do think people can be convinced. You don't need to go for the big kill and convince people why Trump is evil, the system is rigged, etc etc etc. Just be ready and willing to matter-of-factly explain things that would directly impact peoples lives, for example, what socialized healthcare would actually be like. Yes, you could see a doctor and not pay for it. You would not have to go bankrupt because of huge medical bills. Many, many countries already do this and look how well it works for them, I think we deserve a system like that too. I think some people resist these ideas because they're so used to the status quo that it seems impossible that such things could actually happen so they are distrustful. But by being confident and matter of fact about it, especially in terms of discussing it as an eventuality . . . 'man I can't wait until we have socialized medicine like all these other awesome countries, it'll be such a relief.' get people used to the idea as something that could actually exist and be as good as it sounds until they are there with us demanding it for ourselves.
Be kind, listen, be persistent. Obviously I'm more in favor of using this strategy with those who are apathetic, I'm not trying to convince republicans. But I think there's a lot of ground to be gained in kindly and patiently showing people who think government and politics don't affect them that they are incorrect and that things actually could be better for them. That's how the above-mentioned six new voters were convinced. I don't even think it was hard, because they love and trust him and were ready to listen when he talked to them. So don't give up on your own friends and people you have good relationships who may not be there yet politically. They are listening to you, and if they do get there, who knows how many others they'll bring with them?
posted by robotdevil at 7:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
GA-GOV: While it's tempting to throw Abrams under the bus as too radical before the provisional ballots have been certified, the reason why she's 30,000 votes away from a recount is because she fought for that turnout and those registrations and Kemp fought against them.
Kemp canceled more than 750,000 people from the voter rolls in the last year ("Georgia cancels fewer voter registrations after surge last year") and wound up some 110, 000+ votes ahead? That Georgia election was a farce of developing democracies-levels.
posted by octobersurprise at 7:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [76 favorites]
Kemp canceled more than 750,000 people from the voter rolls in the last year ("Georgia cancels fewer voter registrations after surge last year") and wound up some 110, 000+ votes ahead? That Georgia election was a farce of developing democracies-levels.
posted by octobersurprise at 7:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [76 favorites]
The lesson of Texas 2018, to me, is that it takes multiple politicians of real skill to create a perfect electoral storm on the other team's turf. Beto didn't win statewide, but his campaign had coattails that probably pulled a few House candidates across the finish line (Bye, Pete Sessions! See you never!). What would it have taken for him to beat Cruz, other than white people collectively pulling our heads out of our asses? I haven't looked at the district-by-district numbers, but one thing that comes to mind is heavier competition for the rural House seats, which could have provided coattails of their own in return.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Also, regarding SC's new governor, the tea is being fucking served on my friends' facebook pages right now.
posted by octobersurprise at 7:52 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by octobersurprise at 7:52 AM on November 7, 2018
TWinbrook8: "Do they stop counting when it gets too late? ME-02 is still deadlocked at 46 all but the R incumbent is ahead roughly 800 votes with 72% reporting."
Depends (as with most things electoral) on where you're at. Some places will definitely say at some point, "We gotta get some sleep here."
posted by Chrysostom at 7:53 AM on November 7, 2018
Depends (as with most things electoral) on where you're at. Some places will definitely say at some point, "We gotta get some sleep here."
posted by Chrysostom at 7:53 AM on November 7, 2018
oh and not to abuse the edit window: a few of the six people he convinced to vote live a few hours away from us in the types of more rural, red, areas we're discussing above on how to reach. so that strategy is one way in.
posted by robotdevil at 7:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by robotdevil at 7:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
It might be cold comfort for now, but read Carol Anderson on the full extent of Kemp's voter suppression: Brian Kempâs Lead in Georgia Needs an Asterisk:
Under Kemp, Georgia purged more than 1.5 million voters from the rolls, eliminating 10.6 percent of voters from the stateâs registered electorate from 2016 to 2018 alone. The state shut down 214 polling places, the bulk of them in minority and poor neighborhoods. From 2013 to 2016 it blocked the registration of nearly 35,000 Georgians, including newly naturalized citizens. Georgia accomplished this feat of disfranchisement based on a screening process called âexact match,â meaning the state accepted new registrations only if they matched the information in state databases precisely, including hyphens in names, accents, and even typos.posted by gladly at 7:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [54 favorites]
Although a judge ruled that exact match was biased and had a disparate impact on minority applicants, the Georgia legislature in 2017 scoffed at the decision and created a new exact-match program plagued by the same bias for traditional, anglicized names. Exact match is supposed to weed out attempted voter-impersonation fraud before it can begin. What it actually does is remove tens of thousands of otherwise eligible voters, overwhelmingly minorities, from the electorate.
Kemp plied his trade with purges, poll closures, registration limbo, and more. He was the voter-suppression king, who now wanted to be governor. He had the state machinery on his side, and he was ready to use it.
Days before the deadline to register for the November election, the Associated Press reported that Kemp had put 53,000 applicants on hold due to exact-match problems. An analysis of Kempâs records found that 70 percent of those applicants were black. (Georgia is roughly 32 percent black.) Separately, the Georgia chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union found that some 700 absentee-ballot applications and almost 200 absentee ballots were rejected by county officials due to a law mandating that the signatures on absentee applications and ballots visually match the signatures on file. Thus, poor penmanship was added to the list of crimes that can lead to disenfranchisement in Georgia.
Mod note: One deleted. People, again, entirely general "are white rural voters driven by racism vs economic angst; must we be nicer or meaner to them" is a theme we've been around many times; please consider those general points made. Let this thread be about the specifics of the actual election that just happened.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Autumnheart: "Oh, right, itâs been like 4 whole hours since the election, so this is exactly the appropriate time for Democratic Socialists to start announcing how theyâre the pure heart of the party, and that other Democrats need to fall in line or risk being labeled? "
Outspokenly progressive candidates did pretty meh, too. That doesn't mean that's a viable path - NE-02 is not an easy district! - but I do think we should be careful of assuming it's electoral gold.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Outspokenly progressive candidates did pretty meh, too. That doesn't mean that's a viable path - NE-02 is not an easy district! - but I do think we should be careful of assuming it's electoral gold.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Dead brothel owner wins election for Nevada legislative seat
Good morning! The nightmare's not over yet!
posted by Donald Trump Sex Nightmare at 7:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Good morning! The nightmare's not over yet!
posted by Donald Trump Sex Nightmare at 7:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
For those fretting over the Dem results in the Senate, a reminder from Mr. George Takei:
"Red states with small, rural populations each get 2 senators in Congress:
CA: 39,780,000
See why the GOP controls the Senate?"
posted by jeremias at 7:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [33 favorites]
"Red states with small, rural populations each get 2 senators in Congress:
- WY: 573,000
- ND: 755,000
- SD: 869,000
- ID: 1,717,000
- NE: 1,930,000
CA: 39,780,000
See why the GOP controls the Senate?"
posted by jeremias at 7:59 AM on November 7, 2018 [33 favorites]
George forgot Alaska.
If Wyoming was a metropolitan area, it would be the 32nd largest metropolitan area in the U.S.
Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, and South Dakota make up 1.1% of the U.S. population (including territories).
All five combined are roughly the same population as Puerto Rico.
These five states make up 10% of the U.S. Senate. P.R. makes up 0% of the U.S. Senate.
The District of Columbia is larger than Wyoming, is also not represented.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [36 favorites]
If Wyoming was a metropolitan area, it would be the 32nd largest metropolitan area in the U.S.
Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, and South Dakota make up 1.1% of the U.S. population (including territories).
All five combined are roughly the same population as Puerto Rico.
These five states make up 10% of the U.S. Senate. P.R. makes up 0% of the U.S. Senate.
The District of Columbia is larger than Wyoming, is also not represented.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [36 favorites]
RedOrGreen: "Chrysostom, a thread turns its lonely eyes to you..."
Sorry, I had to crash about 8 am. Will do a summary, though.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Sorry, I had to crash about 8 am. Will do a summary, though.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
If I can interrupt the regularly scheduled circular firing squad for a moment, here's my mental model for what happened last night and where we go from here.
WaPo is framing their horse race coverage as a story of a big Democratic win, but a loss for the "next generation of stars" like Beto, Abrams, and Gillum. And to some extent, this is correct -- but the idea that Democrats were competing deep in GOP territory in statewide elections is a huge moving of the goalposts that I don't think enough people are talking about. The 60-seat swing for the GOP in 2010 wasn't built on a lot of wins in deep blue districts -- it was built mostly by tossing out a bunch of conserva-Dems in swing districts who rode Obama's coattails in 2008. Yet here we had Democrats, with the stakes as high as they can possibly get, refusing to accept merely taking the easy seats and going deep into enemy territory to try to get some high-profile wins in states they would normally have no business competing in.
And yeah, they lost a lot of those kind of seats, but how much did they drain the GOP's resources that could have / would have been used to protect their suburban Trump-leaning or slightly Clinton-leaning districts where Democrats performed so well last night? Someone last night said that Democrats had to rescue Menendez, and wondered if that hurt them elsewhere. But the same logic applies to the GOP. All those state houses we flipped are going to have a huge impact on eroding the GOP's structural advantage, and they may not have been possible without making the opposition play defense.
And this is before you try to account for more nebulous advantages, like energizing Democrats in states and districts where demographics are trending in the right direction.
I don't know what the right answer is for the strategy of leading the caucus right now, but it's important that we take some time to do a full accounting of what went right and what went wrong. We need Democrats to stick with organizers and activists in Texas and Georgia and Florida even after the high-profile defeats. And this new, younger generation of leaders that's entering Congress needs to be front and center in crafting strategy for the party in the next two years, as they're the ones most likely to get bounced if voters aren't excited. I'm fine putting heat on milquetoast/centrist/conservative Democrats in districts where a potted plant can win with a (D) next to their name, but I think strategic flexibility is important. Run progressives where progressives can win, run moderates where moderates can win. Let the Manchins do their thing. I don't have to go have a beer with these centrist/conservative Dems, I just have to look at the health coverage numbers and know that them being there is saving lives just by not being a Republican.
Democrats in the 116th Congress are going to have very little to keep them busy in terms of legislation. Everything is going to be about holding the administration accountable and building a coalition that can win unified control of government in 2020. That leaves a lot of time for leadership and rank-and-file members to examine not just what went right last night, but what didn't go right but could have with just a bit more support. And a lot of time for activists on the ground to get their attention.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [55 favorites]
WaPo is framing their horse race coverage as a story of a big Democratic win, but a loss for the "next generation of stars" like Beto, Abrams, and Gillum. And to some extent, this is correct -- but the idea that Democrats were competing deep in GOP territory in statewide elections is a huge moving of the goalposts that I don't think enough people are talking about. The 60-seat swing for the GOP in 2010 wasn't built on a lot of wins in deep blue districts -- it was built mostly by tossing out a bunch of conserva-Dems in swing districts who rode Obama's coattails in 2008. Yet here we had Democrats, with the stakes as high as they can possibly get, refusing to accept merely taking the easy seats and going deep into enemy territory to try to get some high-profile wins in states they would normally have no business competing in.
And yeah, they lost a lot of those kind of seats, but how much did they drain the GOP's resources that could have / would have been used to protect their suburban Trump-leaning or slightly Clinton-leaning districts where Democrats performed so well last night? Someone last night said that Democrats had to rescue Menendez, and wondered if that hurt them elsewhere. But the same logic applies to the GOP. All those state houses we flipped are going to have a huge impact on eroding the GOP's structural advantage, and they may not have been possible without making the opposition play defense.
And this is before you try to account for more nebulous advantages, like energizing Democrats in states and districts where demographics are trending in the right direction.
I don't know what the right answer is for the strategy of leading the caucus right now, but it's important that we take some time to do a full accounting of what went right and what went wrong. We need Democrats to stick with organizers and activists in Texas and Georgia and Florida even after the high-profile defeats. And this new, younger generation of leaders that's entering Congress needs to be front and center in crafting strategy for the party in the next two years, as they're the ones most likely to get bounced if voters aren't excited. I'm fine putting heat on milquetoast/centrist/conservative Democrats in districts where a potted plant can win with a (D) next to their name, but I think strategic flexibility is important. Run progressives where progressives can win, run moderates where moderates can win. Let the Manchins do their thing. I don't have to go have a beer with these centrist/conservative Dems, I just have to look at the health coverage numbers and know that them being there is saving lives just by not being a Republican.
Democrats in the 116th Congress are going to have very little to keep them busy in terms of legislation. Everything is going to be about holding the administration accountable and building a coalition that can win unified control of government in 2020. That leaves a lot of time for leadership and rank-and-file members to examine not just what went right last night, but what didn't go right but could have with just a bit more support. And a lot of time for activists on the ground to get their attention.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [55 favorites]
Ok, so I'll ask again - is there a decent highlights post somewhere? Here's mine:
Last night, I said I was rooting for Beto, Gillum, Abrams, and in my neck of the woods, Tracy Mitrano for NY23. And I was prepared for heartbreak.
So Tracy Mitrano lost in a race that was much tighter than prognosticators had expected, but not as close as I'd hoped for - two more years of the odious Tom Reed (R-NY23), but now as a minority Congressman.
And Gillum (D-FL-Gov) and Nelson (D-Sen) both losing, and in different ways - something went wrong specifically in Florida, compared to polls and expectations. It's easy to blame Florida man - I already did, last night - but there seems to be something more going on here. I hope people dig into this.
For Abrams (D-GA-Gov) v Kemp, the race seems to be well within the margin of voter registrations turned away by the Secretary of State, Kemp. If this was an election in Latin America, people would be pointing and laughing at the banana republic behavior. I mean, come on! I hope Abrams fights this through the courts for a couple of years. (On preview, what octobersurprise said.)
For the other governors: SCOTT WALKER! (R-WI-Gov) WE GOT THAT FUCKER!! I'm guessing my friends in Milwaukee have fierce hangovers. And the fact that he can't even ask for a recount because of a law he signed - ain't karma a bitch.
And KRIS KOBACH! (R-KS-Gov) The voter suppression guy, getting voted out! The governors were really important, are going to be critical for us at the 2020 census. We're still paying for the post-2010-census redistricting, because our voters skipped that midterm. (Thanks, Obama. This is one thing he genuinely failed at.)
I guess the Senate sucked. I'd made my peace with Heitkamp (D-ND) losing, and I was betting on Rosen (D-NV) winning. But I didn't think Sinema (D-AZ) was going to be so close, and losing all of McCaskill (D-MO), Donnelly (D-IN), Nelson (D-FL) and maybe even Tester (D-MT)? That stings. But Beto (D-TX) - I'm not sad. He got us Colin Allred, goodbye Pete Sessions, and so much more. And holding a cockroach skinsuit to 3% in Texas is stunning.
I'll be grateful for the House, and for the governors. And then there are so many delightful specific House races - aaaand on preview now Chrysostom has promised a summary!
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
Last night, I said I was rooting for Beto, Gillum, Abrams, and in my neck of the woods, Tracy Mitrano for NY23. And I was prepared for heartbreak.
So Tracy Mitrano lost in a race that was much tighter than prognosticators had expected, but not as close as I'd hoped for - two more years of the odious Tom Reed (R-NY23), but now as a minority Congressman.
And Gillum (D-FL-Gov) and Nelson (D-Sen) both losing, and in different ways - something went wrong specifically in Florida, compared to polls and expectations. It's easy to blame Florida man - I already did, last night - but there seems to be something more going on here. I hope people dig into this.
For Abrams (D-GA-Gov) v Kemp, the race seems to be well within the margin of voter registrations turned away by the Secretary of State, Kemp. If this was an election in Latin America, people would be pointing and laughing at the banana republic behavior. I mean, come on! I hope Abrams fights this through the courts for a couple of years. (On preview, what octobersurprise said.)
For the other governors: SCOTT WALKER! (R-WI-Gov) WE GOT THAT FUCKER!! I'm guessing my friends in Milwaukee have fierce hangovers. And the fact that he can't even ask for a recount because of a law he signed - ain't karma a bitch.
And KRIS KOBACH! (R-KS-Gov) The voter suppression guy, getting voted out! The governors were really important, are going to be critical for us at the 2020 census. We're still paying for the post-2010-census redistricting, because our voters skipped that midterm. (Thanks, Obama. This is one thing he genuinely failed at.)
I guess the Senate sucked. I'd made my peace with Heitkamp (D-ND) losing, and I was betting on Rosen (D-NV) winning. But I didn't think Sinema (D-AZ) was going to be so close, and losing all of McCaskill (D-MO), Donnelly (D-IN), Nelson (D-FL) and maybe even Tester (D-MT)? That stings. But Beto (D-TX) - I'm not sad. He got us Colin Allred, goodbye Pete Sessions, and so much more. And holding a cockroach skinsuit to 3% in Texas is stunning.
I'll be grateful for the House, and for the governors. And then there are so many delightful specific House races - aaaand on preview now Chrysostom has promised a summary!
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:05 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
msalt: Under the radar victories: - Dem sweep in New Mexico
SO CLOSE! NM House District 2 stayed Republican, but the former House Rep, Steve Pearce (Tea Party) lost to the governorship to Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) (at least Pearce was really polite and positive, even calling Lujan Grisham his friend, in his concession speech), and Pearce is replaced by Yvette Herrell (R), a self-professed "Christian Conservative," and also proudly "the only candidate who supported President Trump from Day 1 of his campaign" :(
But the GOOD NEWS is that we swung from a margin of victory of 25.5% to ~2%.
BUT WAIT! Torres Small won't concede as nearly 4,000 ballots wait to be counted!!
Also good news: SO MANY WOMEN now in positions of power in New Mexico! Really, my ballot was FANTASTIC.
zachlipton: And NBC calls a pickup for KS-03 for Davids (D) over Yoder (R-Incumbant).
That was predicted likely D, but also another sign of Ds showing strength in these suburban districts. This would make Davids the Lesbian Native American Congresswoman (indeed, the first Native American woman period; Deb Haaland of NM will likely join her in that honor).
Yes! Deb Haaland will be one of the first Native American women to serve in Congress!
posted by filthy light thief at 8:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
SO CLOSE! NM House District 2 stayed Republican, but the former House Rep, Steve Pearce (Tea Party) lost to the governorship to Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) (at least Pearce was really polite and positive, even calling Lujan Grisham his friend, in his concession speech), and Pearce is replaced by Yvette Herrell (R), a self-professed "Christian Conservative," and also proudly "the only candidate who supported President Trump from Day 1 of his campaign" :(
But the GOOD NEWS is that we swung from a margin of victory of 25.5% to ~2%.
BUT WAIT! Torres Small won't concede as nearly 4,000 ballots wait to be counted!!
Also good news: SO MANY WOMEN now in positions of power in New Mexico! Really, my ballot was FANTASTIC.
zachlipton: And NBC calls a pickup for KS-03 for Davids (D) over Yoder (R-Incumbant).
That was predicted likely D, but also another sign of Ds showing strength in these suburban districts. This would make Davids the Lesbian Native American Congresswoman (indeed, the first Native American woman period; Deb Haaland of NM will likely join her in that honor).
Yes! Deb Haaland will be one of the first Native American women to serve in Congress!
posted by filthy light thief at 8:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
And yeah, they lost a lot of those kind of seats, but how much did they drain the GOP's resources that could have / would have been used to protect their suburban Trump-leaning or slightly Clinton-leaning districts where Democrats performed so well last night?
One thing I was thinking last night was that I wonder how many seats Beto flipped by running the campaign that he did. Enough voters came out to flip two House seats in Texas. But the GOP also had to dump a lot of money into defending what should be a safe seat. He may have taken enough money out of the equation to flip another 2-3 seats nationally.
posted by azpenguin at 8:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
One thing I was thinking last night was that I wonder how many seats Beto flipped by running the campaign that he did. Enough voters came out to flip two House seats in Texas. But the GOP also had to dump a lot of money into defending what should be a safe seat. He may have taken enough money out of the equation to flip another 2-3 seats nationally.
posted by azpenguin at 8:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
Outspokenly progressive candidates did pretty meh, too.
I started volunteering for Laurie Pohutsky, the most progressive candidate in my state House race, before the primaries. She was up against a guy who was so much a local-establishment Democrat that his name is literally D. Centers. Laurie had "progressive" before every instance of "Democrat" on her literature and in the door speech and in the call speech. She campaigned on single-payer health care and a heavy environmental message. The state party didn't give her a single iota of assistance. Multiple local and regional Democrats told her she couldn't win, even in a Blue Wave, and that she had to drop out For The Good Of The Party.
She beat D. Centers like a fucking drum in the primary.
After that, the Dems begrudgingly gave her what little resources they could while they concentrated on the more friendly, center-ish, not-as-vocally-progressive suburban Democrats, so she mostly relied on her homegrown team. I spent more than one door-knocking session listening to her detailing the dumb shit that the state and local parties wanted from her. She turned down most of their asks, and only barely accepted any of their gives. She was written off. I got more direct mail from the state GOP about how super-liberal Pohutsky was than from the state Dems about her at all.
And then, Livonia, Michgian -- a city that was literally the creation of White Flight, a city that was 99 percent white as recently as 1980 and which is even now about 93 percent white, a city that is Michigan-shorthand for "white, Republican suburb", a city that is the home of this fucking guy -- elected Progressive Democrat Laurie Pohutsky to the Michigan House last night.
Sure, it was close. The closest race in the entire state legislature race in all of Michigan this year, including primaries. Somewhere between 101 and 221 votes. But she won.
posted by Etrigan at 8:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [87 favorites]
I started volunteering for Laurie Pohutsky, the most progressive candidate in my state House race, before the primaries. She was up against a guy who was so much a local-establishment Democrat that his name is literally D. Centers. Laurie had "progressive" before every instance of "Democrat" on her literature and in the door speech and in the call speech. She campaigned on single-payer health care and a heavy environmental message. The state party didn't give her a single iota of assistance. Multiple local and regional Democrats told her she couldn't win, even in a Blue Wave, and that she had to drop out For The Good Of The Party.
She beat D. Centers like a fucking drum in the primary.
After that, the Dems begrudgingly gave her what little resources they could while they concentrated on the more friendly, center-ish, not-as-vocally-progressive suburban Democrats, so she mostly relied on her homegrown team. I spent more than one door-knocking session listening to her detailing the dumb shit that the state and local parties wanted from her. She turned down most of their asks, and only barely accepted any of their gives. She was written off. I got more direct mail from the state GOP about how super-liberal Pohutsky was than from the state Dems about her at all.
And then, Livonia, Michgian -- a city that was literally the creation of White Flight, a city that was 99 percent white as recently as 1980 and which is even now about 93 percent white, a city that is Michigan-shorthand for "white, Republican suburb", a city that is the home of this fucking guy -- elected Progressive Democrat Laurie Pohutsky to the Michigan House last night.
Sure, it was close. The closest race in the entire state legislature race in all of Michigan this year, including primaries. Somewhere between 101 and 221 votes. But she won.
posted by Etrigan at 8:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [87 favorites]
HAHAHAHAHA!!!
WA-08: "Dr. Kim Schrier leads by 6 percentage points over Dino Rossi with 64 percent of precincts reporting."
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
WA-08: "Dr. Kim Schrier leads by 6 percentage points over Dino Rossi with 64 percent of precincts reporting."
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
something went wrong specifically in Florida, compared to polls and expectations.
DO YA THINK. SO.
It's easy to blame Florida man - I already did, last night -
HA HA HA HA HAA HAAAA
but there seems to be something more going on here. I hope people dig into this.
HA HA HAAAAA [sob] HA [sob] HA [head explodes from crying]
posted by Don Pepino at 8:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
DO YA THINK. SO.
It's easy to blame Florida man - I already did, last night -
HA HA HA HA HAA HAAAA
but there seems to be something more going on here. I hope people dig into this.
HA HA HAAAAA [sob] HA [sob] HA [head explodes from crying]
posted by Don Pepino at 8:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Welp...
April Ryan
Breaking: The @RepDeSantis and @AndrewGillum fight is not over for the Florida governorship. The Gillum camp offers numbers are closer with a difference of 15 Thousand votes between the two. @AndrewGillum folks contend they are not giving up! More votes remain to be counted.
posted by chris24 at 8:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [40 favorites]
April Ryan
Breaking: The @RepDeSantis and @AndrewGillum fight is not over for the Florida governorship. The Gillum camp offers numbers are closer with a difference of 15 Thousand votes between the two. @AndrewGillum folks contend they are not giving up! More votes remain to be counted.
posted by chris24 at 8:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [40 favorites]
I'm sorry, I don't usually do this and I'm going to give myself a time out after this, but:
McConnell calls for bipartisan work on fixing the Affordable Care Act
McConnell will go down as the grave-digger of American democracy, yes, but he can't go down fast enough.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [54 favorites]
McConnell calls for bipartisan work on fixing the Affordable Care Act
McConnell ... considers the existing health-care system âa pretty big messâ and said he is hopeful his party can work with Democrats on bipartisan solutions. âI donât think anybodyâs satisfied with the status quo,â McConnell said.FUCK YOU, YOU ATROPHIED TURTLE FUCKER!
...
McConnell also cautioned House Democrats about using their investigative powers too aggressively against Trump and his administration. ... âThe business of presidential harassment, which we were deeply engaged in the â90s, improved the presidentâs approval ratings and tanked ours,â McConnell said. âThat might not be a smart strategy, but thatâs up to them how they want to handle that.â
McConnell will go down as the grave-digger of American democracy, yes, but he can't go down fast enough.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [54 favorites]
To update the New York Times article Meet the Would-Be House Committee Leaders Who Could Torment Trump:
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
â˘Â Intelligence Chair Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA)...and more!
â˘Â Judiciary Chair Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY)
â˘Â Oversight and Government Reform Chair Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD)
â˘Â Financial Services Chair Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA)
â˘Â Appropriations Chair Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY)
⢠Armed Services Chair Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA)
⢠Foreign Affairs Chair Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY)
â˘Â Ways and Means Chair Rep. Richard E. Neal (D-MA)
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
âThe business of presidential harassment, which we were deeply engaged in the â90s, improved the presidentâs approval ratings and tanked ours,â
Yeah, that 2000 election was just a disaster for the GOP! God, I hope that doesn't happen to us, right?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Yeah, that 2000 election was just a disaster for the GOP! God, I hope that doesn't happen to us, right?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
sotonohito: "And out of that seven point win we got an incredibly narrow four vote majority in the House."
To be clear, it's not likely to stay as narrow as four seats. We'll still probably pick up several more of the outstanding ones.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
To be clear, it's not likely to stay as narrow as four seats. We'll still probably pick up several more of the outstanding ones.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
McConnell calls for bipartisan work on fixing the Affordable Care Act
Pelosi urges bipartisanship as Democrats win U.S. House
You say bipartisan, I say bipartisan
let's call the whole thing off
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Pelosi urges bipartisanship as Democrats win U.S. House
You say bipartisan, I say bipartisan
let's call the whole thing off
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
RE: Votes left in FL.
@steveschale
If you believe the Broward turnout number (707K) and the Broward vote counted number (673k), there are 34K votes left to be counted. There is also some unknown # of same day VBM in Dade.
Senate race definitely ends up inside the recount window. /1
And this is where it gets ridiculous. In the Ag Commissioner race, Nikki is down about 12,500 votes. iF there are 34K votes left in Broward AND if they break the same 69-31 as the rest of the county, she picks up between 12,500-13,000 votes. You do the math. 2/2
Sorry one more --
But it is Broward, hence the IFS. We do know there were nearly 17K VBMs that came in yesterday. That 17K is almost surely in the 34K delta between ballots processed and cast. I don't know what rest is. 3/3
---
So if Gillum is only down 15,000, maybe barely conceivable he could make it up with the outstanding vote, and more possible he can get to a recount.
posted by chris24 at 8:29 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
@steveschale
If you believe the Broward turnout number (707K) and the Broward vote counted number (673k), there are 34K votes left to be counted. There is also some unknown # of same day VBM in Dade.
Senate race definitely ends up inside the recount window. /1
And this is where it gets ridiculous. In the Ag Commissioner race, Nikki is down about 12,500 votes. iF there are 34K votes left in Broward AND if they break the same 69-31 as the rest of the county, she picks up between 12,500-13,000 votes. You do the math. 2/2
Sorry one more --
But it is Broward, hence the IFS. We do know there were nearly 17K VBMs that came in yesterday. That 17K is almost surely in the 34K delta between ballots processed and cast. I don't know what rest is. 3/3
---
So if Gillum is only down 15,000, maybe barely conceivable he could make it up with the outstanding vote, and more possible he can get to a recount.
posted by chris24 at 8:29 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Liberals need to be liberal if they want a big turnout. This "purge" shit is frankly, insulting and beneath my liberal friends. Which is why they're not the ones saying it!
posted by East14thTaco at 8:30 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by East14thTaco at 8:30 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
mostly vowels: The obsession with rural voters blinds us to the beating heart of right-wing politics foot soldiers (well at least in places like Ohio), which are the exurban McMansion, âfuck you got mineâ white people that live in places with names evocative of the forests and farmlands they paved over like âWillow Hillsâ.
Yes, this. It's not Cletus and Brandine - it's Joe Cardiologist and his stay-at-home mom wife, who attend the local Prosperity Gospel megachurch. The white suburbanites are splitting weirdly - lots of very blue, educated ones and then there are the much more conservative, more exurban ones.
But getting people to the polls is the big key. We gained what we did and held ground in other places BECAUSE we turned out in numbers not usual for Democrats in midterms. So if we can keep this up (and we damn well better) we'll be unstoppable once we have laid our foundation and built our bench.
As I've said, I'm looking to Nevada for inspiration. I think we can call Nevada bluish-purple now. Same with New Mexico. NM has always had a much stronger Latinx and Native underpinning - it's not the white retiree destination Arizona has been. As for Nevada, well, we now see what unions (and California equity locusts, bwahahah) can do.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
Yes, this. It's not Cletus and Brandine - it's Joe Cardiologist and his stay-at-home mom wife, who attend the local Prosperity Gospel megachurch. The white suburbanites are splitting weirdly - lots of very blue, educated ones and then there are the much more conservative, more exurban ones.
But getting people to the polls is the big key. We gained what we did and held ground in other places BECAUSE we turned out in numbers not usual for Democrats in midterms. So if we can keep this up (and we damn well better) we'll be unstoppable once we have laid our foundation and built our bench.
As I've said, I'm looking to Nevada for inspiration. I think we can call Nevada bluish-purple now. Same with New Mexico. NM has always had a much stronger Latinx and Native underpinning - it's not the white retiree destination Arizona has been. As for Nevada, well, we now see what unions (and California equity locusts, bwahahah) can do.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
Greetings from CA52. Good news/bad news.
Good news: House Rep. Scott Peters, through repeated elections, has turned a toss up district to one that the Republican party barely even tries to contest. He won by 21 points, and barely campaigned.
Bad news: You know how you folks don't like centrists? Well, he's basically an avatar of neoliberalism. Millionaire, 6th richest congressman, and leadership at large in the New Democrat Coalition.
Good news: In 2020, he'll probably run for mayor of San Diego to replace the termed out Republican mayor, Kevin Faulconer. Opening it up to someone not the platonic ideal of a moderate Democrat.
Bad news: This puts CA52 back in contention in 2020.
The city council also went Democratic, tossing out two Republican incumbents. It also means they have a veto proof majority against said Republican mayor. Also, as said above, the Kreep got kicked out.
posted by zabuni at 8:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Good news: House Rep. Scott Peters, through repeated elections, has turned a toss up district to one that the Republican party barely even tries to contest. He won by 21 points, and barely campaigned.
Bad news: You know how you folks don't like centrists? Well, he's basically an avatar of neoliberalism. Millionaire, 6th richest congressman, and leadership at large in the New Democrat Coalition.
Good news: In 2020, he'll probably run for mayor of San Diego to replace the termed out Republican mayor, Kevin Faulconer. Opening it up to someone not the platonic ideal of a moderate Democrat.
Bad news: This puts CA52 back in contention in 2020.
The city council also went Democratic, tossing out two Republican incumbents. It also means they have a veto proof majority against said Republican mayor. Also, as said above, the Kreep got kicked out.
posted by zabuni at 8:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Merus: If the Democratic Party wins the House, Maxine Waters, as the most senior member of the Financial Services Committee, can request, and then publish, Trump's tax returns.
I don't know if Trump was only being racist when he has attacked Rep. Waters in the past, but his attacks suddenly seem a bit more ... nuanced? Nah, still pretty racist.
From Wired (filed under Science): Weed Wins on Election Day. So What Comes Next? (Matt Simon, Nov. 7, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 8:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I don't know if Trump was only being racist when he has attacked Rep. Waters in the past, but his attacks suddenly seem a bit more ... nuanced? Nah, still pretty racist.
From Wired (filed under Science): Weed Wins on Election Day. So What Comes Next? (Matt Simon, Nov. 7, 2018)
Michigan voted to legalize the recreational use of cannabis, while Utah and Missouri legalized it for medical use, according to projections made late Tuesday night. (A recreational measure in North Dakota failed, though medical cannabis remains legal there.) They join 31 other states that have already gone the medical route, and nine others that have gone fully recreational.Maybe if Jeffy is ousted, the next Attorney General might take a different stance? Here's hoping this increasingly green map actually leads to decriminalizing weed, and then past offenders get these offenses scrubbed from their records.
Thatâs a win for the citizens of these statesâcannabis is far and away safer than alcohol and comes with a range of proven medical benefits, and still more that researchers are exploring. But it also may be a win for cannabis nationwide: The more states that legalize cannabis, the likelier it is that federal prohibition will topple soon.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
It's just, you know, I punched my chads for Gore in Palm Beach County, on the bullshit butterfly ballot, which was absolutely as confusing as you heard, and I'm not a dumb guy, but basically Florida is the distillation of absurd, don't fucking expect ANYTHING out of Florida. The only way to know where Florida Man is going to break is to watch him do it. Expect nothing. Except chaos.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:33 AM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:33 AM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
McConnell calls for bipartisan work on fixing the Affordable Care Act
This fucking makes my head explode. McConnell is true to form - lie lie lie and lie more especially when it matters.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
This fucking makes my head explode. McConnell is true to form - lie lie lie and lie more especially when it matters.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Noah Rothman has a great reminder for us on Twitter:
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [48 favorites]
Democratic gains at the state level are the most important, and most easily overlooked. 333 legislative seats, 7 new govs, 6 trifectas. Helps rebuild the farm team, cements advantage in reapportionment, and provides Ds a pathway in 2020 with PA, WI, MI gains.#BlueMap2020
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [48 favorites]
Rust Moranis: "Pelosi urges bipartisanship as Democrats win U.S. House
You say bipartisan, I say bipartisan
let's call the whole thing off"
I would venture that it's possible to speak bipartisanship to the media, but then practice hardline-ism in the House. In fact, I think it would be malpractice not to. "We tried our best at common-sense solutions with Those Guys! Too bad they couldn't be reasonable."
posted by Chrysostom at 8:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
You say bipartisan, I say bipartisan
let's call the whole thing off"
I would venture that it's possible to speak bipartisanship to the media, but then practice hardline-ism in the House. In fact, I think it would be malpractice not to. "We tried our best at common-sense solutions with Those Guys! Too bad they couldn't be reasonable."
posted by Chrysostom at 8:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [41 favorites]
Shahed Amanullah, @shahed: If you feel sad today, just imagine Mike Pence swearing 2 women into Congress with the Qur'an
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [122 favorites]
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:37 AM on November 7, 2018 [122 favorites]
McConnell calls for bipartisan work on fixing the Affordable Care Act
The Dem House needs to drop a bill strengthening the ACA on the Senate's plate as close as possible to day 1 and hammer the Senate on all that last minute "oh suddenly we care so much about healthcare and protecting coverage for preexisting conditions" BS Republicans ran on this election. The Dem House actually has a lot of opportunity to get Republican senators on record opposing popular reforms and I hope they use that tool as much as the investigative powers. Preview the 2020 Dem platform with bills for the next two years and make the case that if the country wants these nice things, they need the Democrats.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [37 favorites]
The Dem House needs to drop a bill strengthening the ACA on the Senate's plate as close as possible to day 1 and hammer the Senate on all that last minute "oh suddenly we care so much about healthcare and protecting coverage for preexisting conditions" BS Republicans ran on this election. The Dem House actually has a lot of opportunity to get Republican senators on record opposing popular reforms and I hope they use that tool as much as the investigative powers. Preview the 2020 Dem platform with bills for the next two years and make the case that if the country wants these nice things, they need the Democrats.
posted by jason_steakums at 8:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [37 favorites]
If you feel sad today, just imagine Mike Pence swearing 2 women into Congress with the Qur'an
He only swears in Senators.
posted by Etrigan at 8:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
He only swears in Senators.
posted by Etrigan at 8:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
McConnell has every reason to appeal to Democrats' gentler nature, because he's standing at ground zero and a grand piano was just lashed to a rope over his head.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 8:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
He only swears in Senators.
Yeah, I caught that, but it does say "just imagine" so I'm gonna go with it. Also the House flipped, Dino Rossi is going down, and if "I Was Into Treason Before Republicans Thought It Was Cool" Dana Rohrabacher really is out in Orange County my joy will be like a blazing star.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Yeah, I caught that, but it does say "just imagine" so I'm gonna go with it. Also the House flipped, Dino Rossi is going down, and if "I Was Into Treason Before Republicans Thought It Was Cool" Dana Rohrabacher really is out in Orange County my joy will be like a blazing star.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
sundrop: "CT Governor Race: Bob Stefanowski (R) concedes to Ned Lamont (D). Lamont to be CT Governor. "
Revenge of the Netroots!
posted by Chrysostom at 8:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Revenge of the Netroots!
posted by Chrysostom at 8:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Florida's algae problem is giving people Lou Gehrig's disease. Florida has concluded that Rick Scott deliberately destroying the water management districts so that he could make the state safe for hogs and Canadian cattle barons and whateverfilthyelse caused the algae problem that's driving away the tourists and killing the locals. But supposedly we elected Rick Scott again.
We passed the voting rights amendment to the constitution, but we also elected Rick Scott, who lounged comfortably in front of people Oliver Twisting in front of him pleading for their voting rights and smiled in their faces and said no, probably so that he could revisit the footage later, in private, if you see what I am saying.
Something does not add up. Another thing that does not add up is 18% of black women supposedly voting for DeSantis over Gillum. But yeah, Florida man! There's your Occam's razor. It couldn't possibly be that Rick Scott and the rest of the rotten stinking corrupt red sleazeweasels found a way to cheat.
posted by Don Pepino at 8:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [43 favorites]
We passed the voting rights amendment to the constitution, but we also elected Rick Scott, who lounged comfortably in front of people Oliver Twisting in front of him pleading for their voting rights and smiled in their faces and said no, probably so that he could revisit the footage later, in private, if you see what I am saying.
Something does not add up. Another thing that does not add up is 18% of black women supposedly voting for DeSantis over Gillum. But yeah, Florida man! There's your Occam's razor. It couldn't possibly be that Rick Scott and the rest of the rotten stinking corrupt red sleazeweasels found a way to cheat.
posted by Don Pepino at 8:47 AM on November 7, 2018 [43 favorites]
My take is the incompetence of Trump specifically, and the Republicans in general, we got us what we needed: control of the house. Then, in two years, after we have used the house to show the world exactly what these people are, we'll get our landslide blue wave in 2020.
posted by M-x shell at 8:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by M-x shell at 8:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Ha, Trump will be pissed. And more importantly, one less seat to win in 2020 for control.
Manu Raju (CNN)
Jon Tester now up by 2,030 votes in #mtsen with 99% reporting
posted by chris24 at 8:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
Manu Raju (CNN)
Jon Tester now up by 2,030 votes in #mtsen with 99% reporting
posted by chris24 at 8:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
There absolutely has to be a healthcare bill on day one or close to it -- that was the Dems' nationwide issue, and arguably would have had them in a much stronger position in the Senate if not for Kavanaugh. If they don't deliver on it the voters are likely to remember in 2020, and they can use it to put McConnell in thumbscrews all year long.
Beyond that, the main thing I expect from the House legislatively is....brace yourselves....infrastructure. It's long been seen as an area where they can work out common ground, and now the GOP has to find common ground if they want to pass any bills at all. The Dems had a model infrastructure bill out last January, and I fully expect them to take another shot -- even if it doesn't actually take the same approach as that proposal (which was Senate-led).
Other than those two, I'm thinking we'll see a lot of hearings and not a lot of bills coming out of the House in the 116th Congress. Pelosi is going to be wary of boxing her new red-state Dems or 2020 contenders into concrete votes that won't have a prayer of becoming law anyway, and they can get their message across just as well by holding hearings on the danger of climate change, the need for Wall Street reform, the Voting Rights Act, etc., etc., regardless of whether there's a 200-page bill for us policy nerds to dig into and then watch die in the Senate.
That's all in addition to straight-up oversight, which doesn't have a lawmaking component but is still going to be a top priority for many of the committees.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Beyond that, the main thing I expect from the House legislatively is....brace yourselves....infrastructure. It's long been seen as an area where they can work out common ground, and now the GOP has to find common ground if they want to pass any bills at all. The Dems had a model infrastructure bill out last January, and I fully expect them to take another shot -- even if it doesn't actually take the same approach as that proposal (which was Senate-led).
Other than those two, I'm thinking we'll see a lot of hearings and not a lot of bills coming out of the House in the 116th Congress. Pelosi is going to be wary of boxing her new red-state Dems or 2020 contenders into concrete votes that won't have a prayer of becoming law anyway, and they can get their message across just as well by holding hearings on the danger of climate change, the need for Wall Street reform, the Voting Rights Act, etc., etc., regardless of whether there's a 200-page bill for us policy nerds to dig into and then watch die in the Senate.
That's all in addition to straight-up oversight, which doesn't have a lawmaking component but is still going to be a top priority for many of the committees.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
yoga: "Do we know total voter turnout for 2018 midterms? Like compared to both 2016 and midterms 2014?"
Looks like 2018 turnout was about 47.3%, highest since 1970.
2014 was 36.7%
2016 was 60.1%
posted by Chrysostom at 8:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Looks like 2018 turnout was about 47.3%, highest since 1970.
2014 was 36.7%
2016 was 60.1%
posted by Chrysostom at 8:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
AP shows Rouda (D) over Rohrabacher (R) with +2682 votes, so that's looking very good.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
There absolutely has to be a healthcare bill on day one or close to it -- that was the Dems' nationwide issue, and arguably would have had them in a much stronger position in the Senate if not for Kavanaugh. If they don't deliver on it the voters are likely to remember in 2020, and they can use it to put McConnell in thumbscrews all year long.
We've got to call and write these people now that they've won and tell them this. They need to know that the very people who got them elected expect them to hit the ground running.
The whole point of the massive, left-side-of-the-party/millenial/etc turnout should be that they owe us. They don't owe us six impossible things before breakfast, but they owe us a very good, hard-hitting effort on obviously popular issues like healthcare.
posted by Frowner at 8:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [44 favorites]
We've got to call and write these people now that they've won and tell them this. They need to know that the very people who got them elected expect them to hit the ground running.
The whole point of the massive, left-side-of-the-party/millenial/etc turnout should be that they owe us. They don't owe us six impossible things before breakfast, but they owe us a very good, hard-hitting effort on obviously popular issues like healthcare.
posted by Frowner at 8:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [44 favorites]
Don Pepino: "Florida's algae problem is giving people Lou Gehrig's disease. "
[citation-needed]
If we had any clue about what causes ALS, it'd be front-page news and there'd be a Nobel Prize lined up (or whatever the medial equivalent to that is). I don't like the Republicans at all, and we should absolutely be protecting the environment, but the link between algae and ALS is extremely tentative. At best, we can say that we haven't ruled it out.
This is far from the first baffling ALS "cluster" that we've seen.
posted by schmod at 8:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
[citation-needed]
If we had any clue about what causes ALS, it'd be front-page news and there'd be a Nobel Prize lined up (or whatever the medial equivalent to that is). I don't like the Republicans at all, and we should absolutely be protecting the environment, but the link between algae and ALS is extremely tentative. At best, we can say that we haven't ruled it out.
This is far from the first baffling ALS "cluster" that we've seen.
posted by schmod at 8:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Indeed, Frowner. It's also a good way to keep those new voters engaged -- let's get them some return on those time and donations.
(As a follow-up, I'm much less sure on what the Dems' strategy is going to be in the Senate, but that's also less important with the House as a firewall and the GOP set up with an easy majority on confirmation votes no matter what we do. If I were in The Room Where It Happens, my first priority would be sending Chuck Schumer to the back bench for the rest of his life. Here's hoping.)
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:54 AM on November 7, 2018
(As a follow-up, I'm much less sure on what the Dems' strategy is going to be in the Senate, but that's also less important with the House as a firewall and the GOP set up with an easy majority on confirmation votes no matter what we do. If I were in The Room Where It Happens, my first priority would be sending Chuck Schumer to the back bench for the rest of his life. Here's hoping.)
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:54 AM on November 7, 2018
Looks like 2018 turnout was about 47.3%, highest since 1970.
2014 was 36.7%
2016 was 60.1%
My rural-ass county beat its 2016 total by 9 votes. Granted, most of our votes were still for monstrous candidates, but I bet Tester's glad to have that extra handful right about now.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
2014 was 36.7%
2016 was 60.1%
My rural-ass county beat its 2016 total by 9 votes. Granted, most of our votes were still for monstrous candidates, but I bet Tester's glad to have that extra handful right about now.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Here's my take on Congress. I think most people (not necessarily the people in this thread) are underselling control of the House. First and foremost, it prevents bad laws from being passed. The GOP had already said if they held on, they were going to pass another disastrous tax cut for the rich and take another stab at healthcare. Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid were surely directly in line behind that. Now that doesn't happen.
Second, subpoena power. We already know so much crazy shit, and that's clearly the tip of the iceberg. Executive branch people *will* be going to jail over what's uncovered. Which leads to the third point -
Controlling the narrative. Benghazi stayed in the news for months even though it was clearly nothing, we can do that here, with the bonus of actually uncovering malfeasance. Plus, we can send popular bills to (voting rights, ACA improvements) to the Senate, where they either get passed (great!) or get killed ("Once again, the Senate GOP is putting everyday Americans last!) We're constantly promoting the message that Democrats want to help you and the GOP are criminals.
I agree that we need to *take advantage* of these powers, but if we do so, we can do a lot.
The Senate, agreed is a huge problems. It's disappointing that a solid message like pre-existing conditions can't outweigh partisanship. But, a) could have been worse, and b) I feel like the result just threw into sharp relief issues we already knew we had.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [67 favorites]
Second, subpoena power. We already know so much crazy shit, and that's clearly the tip of the iceberg. Executive branch people *will* be going to jail over what's uncovered. Which leads to the third point -
Controlling the narrative. Benghazi stayed in the news for months even though it was clearly nothing, we can do that here, with the bonus of actually uncovering malfeasance. Plus, we can send popular bills to (voting rights, ACA improvements) to the Senate, where they either get passed (great!) or get killed ("Once again, the Senate GOP is putting everyday Americans last!) We're constantly promoting the message that Democrats want to help you and the GOP are criminals.
I agree that we need to *take advantage* of these powers, but if we do so, we can do a lot.
The Senate, agreed is a huge problems. It's disappointing that a solid message like pre-existing conditions can't outweigh partisanship. But, a) could have been worse, and b) I feel like the result just threw into sharp relief issues we already knew we had.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [67 favorites]
Duncan Hunter got re-elected. Good God Above. WTF.
As I said to someone else, forget it Jake, it's East County. The line between the 50th and 52th district is pretty much where the blue ends. I expect the 50th to gradually turn blue, as current housing stocks in San Diego are exhausted and people look east to find places to live. It's already happening in Santee, which used to more colloquially known as Klantee, because the actual KKK moved out there. But land is land, and you got to build somewhere.
posted by zabuni at 9:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
As I said to someone else, forget it Jake, it's East County. The line between the 50th and 52th district is pretty much where the blue ends. I expect the 50th to gradually turn blue, as current housing stocks in San Diego are exhausted and people look east to find places to live. It's already happening in Santee, which used to more colloquially known as Klantee, because the actual KKK moved out there. But land is land, and you got to build somewhere.
posted by zabuni at 9:02 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Because the Senate is a write off. The Republicans will own it forever and not even a Blue Tsunami will change that.
This is crazy talk. There were 33 senate seats up for election and the Democrats won 22 or so -- two-thirds.
Just eight years ago, Democrats not only had a majority of the Senate, they had a filibuster-proof 60, although briefly. The last time the Republicans had 60 seats was 1920.
In this election the Democrats had to defend 24 seats while the Republicans only 9. In 2020, that will be reversed.
Yes, the Senate is an uphill battle because of the rural states, but recent history certainly says it isn't impossible. Writing it off is defeatist.
posted by JackFlash at 9:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [86 favorites]
This is crazy talk. There were 33 senate seats up for election and the Democrats won 22 or so -- two-thirds.
Just eight years ago, Democrats not only had a majority of the Senate, they had a filibuster-proof 60, although briefly. The last time the Republicans had 60 seats was 1920.
In this election the Democrats had to defend 24 seats while the Republicans only 9. In 2020, that will be reversed.
Yes, the Senate is an uphill battle because of the rural states, but recent history certainly says it isn't impossible. Writing it off is defeatist.
posted by JackFlash at 9:03 AM on November 7, 2018 [86 favorites]
Now I can't find it of course, but someone pointed out that there were several Texas districts - like 4 or 5 - that ended up going GOP by much closer than expected, within single digits. And these were unheralded districts where the Dem had no money. Expect a much broader focus on Texas districts in 2020.
Not to mention a presidential focus. Beto may not be replicable, but we got within two points statewide in Texas. The nominee is going to have to think about how seriously to run at that.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Not to mention a presidential focus. Beto may not be replicable, but we got within two points statewide in Texas. The nominee is going to have to think about how seriously to run at that.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Thank you Swing Left, thank you Indivisible, thank you Great Slate, thank you everyone who put energy into so many of these races.
Some things I noticed/loved!
Wisconsin: Scott Walker losing the governor's seat is particularly sweet to me as someone who goes to WisCon! The Walkers Against Walker won! And "former state Rep. Mandela Barnes, would become the state's first African-American lieutenant governor"!
California:
California ballot measures - defeated some awful ones that would have been terrible for infrastructure, and passed Prop 2 to make it possible to spend mental health funding on housing the homeless directly. (Going off a friend's spreadsheet to understand what I should root for.)
In San Francisco, Janice Li, a friend of a friend, who works for the SF Bike Coalition, is leading in a race for a position on the BART board of directors!
Josephine Zhao lost her campaign for the San Francisco school board which is very good news, especially for trans students.
I really want Rohrabacher out and his opponent is currently pretty ahead!
And we nearly got a Dem elected out of MODESTO. I grew up partly in Stockton and that means, 2 years from now, omg, that would be amazing!
North Carolina: In Buncombe County (Asheville) voters elected their first Black sheriff (the controversial Asheville police chief has now announced she is resigning)
Ohio: Cuyahoga County (think Cleveland) passed what I believe is some trans rights protection for county employees -- Issue 10 on the ballot updated the county charter:
Michigan: a friend of mine worked on Dana Nessel's run for Attorney General. She won.
My friend texted me:
Tim Kaine's victory speech (PBS video) is particularly fun at the start and the end. He starts partly in Spanish, then mentions Paul's letter to the Ephesians? and says he is surrounded by a great cloud of witnesses. He notes that they called his race at "7 o'clock and 30 seconds" and says "it was like a Mark Warner race! I'm a 2am guy, not a 7 o'clock guy!"
He then says a bunch of other reasonable things, thanking people, talking about the future of Virginia and the country, etc.
Then he mentions that he is at heart motivated by his spirituality, and his favorite prayer was one written by George Fox: "Walk cheerfully over the earth, answering that of God in everyone". And he goes from talking about the divine spark in everyone to talking about Diwali, which started last night. (I immediately see a brown arm in the audience rise up and wave a Kaine sign.) He talks lovingly about the victory of light over darkness. (And I cry.)
This is PARTICULARLY GREAT because this is an acceptance speech for a US Senate seat from Virginia and maybe some of you remember George Allen calling a young Indian-American man "macaca" 12 years ago while running for a US Senate seat from VA.
(OK and then there's confetti and music and a middle-aged white guy clapping and dancing a bit on the stage and it's adorably dorky.)
posted by brainwane at 9:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [65 favorites]
Some things I noticed/loved!
Wisconsin: Scott Walker losing the governor's seat is particularly sweet to me as someone who goes to WisCon! The Walkers Against Walker won! And "former state Rep. Mandela Barnes, would become the state's first African-American lieutenant governor"!
California:
California ballot measures - defeated some awful ones that would have been terrible for infrastructure, and passed Prop 2 to make it possible to spend mental health funding on housing the homeless directly. (Going off a friend's spreadsheet to understand what I should root for.)
In San Francisco, Janice Li, a friend of a friend, who works for the SF Bike Coalition, is leading in a race for a position on the BART board of directors!
Josephine Zhao lost her campaign for the San Francisco school board which is very good news, especially for trans students.
I really want Rohrabacher out and his opponent is currently pretty ahead!
And we nearly got a Dem elected out of MODESTO. I grew up partly in Stockton and that means, 2 years from now, omg, that would be amazing!
North Carolina: In Buncombe County (Asheville) voters elected their first Black sheriff (the controversial Asheville police chief has now announced she is resigning)
Ohio: Cuyahoga County (think Cleveland) passed what I believe is some trans rights protection for county employees -- Issue 10 on the ballot updated the county charter:
Shall Article IX of the Charter of the County of Cuyahoga be amended to clarify the roles and responsibilities of the Personnel Review Commission and the Department of Human Resources, to prohibit discrimination in county employment on the basis of gender identity/expression, and to provide that unclassified service shall include those employees who are unclassified pursuant to general law and council ordinance?It passed, 75% to 24%.
Michigan: a friend of mine worked on Dana Nessel's run for Attorney General. She won.
My friend texted me:
TOM LEONARD JUST CONCEDEDVirginia:
DANA NESSEL WON
FIRST OPENLY GAY MEMBER OF MICHIGANS TOP GOVERNMENT
CRYING AT MY DESK
Tim Kaine's victory speech (PBS video) is particularly fun at the start and the end. He starts partly in Spanish, then mentions Paul's letter to the Ephesians? and says he is surrounded by a great cloud of witnesses. He notes that they called his race at "7 o'clock and 30 seconds" and says "it was like a Mark Warner race! I'm a 2am guy, not a 7 o'clock guy!"
He then says a bunch of other reasonable things, thanking people, talking about the future of Virginia and the country, etc.
Then he mentions that he is at heart motivated by his spirituality, and his favorite prayer was one written by George Fox: "Walk cheerfully over the earth, answering that of God in everyone". And he goes from talking about the divine spark in everyone to talking about Diwali, which started last night. (I immediately see a brown arm in the audience rise up and wave a Kaine sign.) He talks lovingly about the victory of light over darkness. (And I cry.)
This is PARTICULARLY GREAT because this is an acceptance speech for a US Senate seat from Virginia and maybe some of you remember George Allen calling a young Indian-American man "macaca" 12 years ago while running for a US Senate seat from VA.
(OK and then there's confetti and music and a middle-aged white guy clapping and dancing a bit on the stage and it's adorably dorky.)
posted by brainwane at 9:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [65 favorites]
Yes, the Senate is an uphill battle because of the rural states, but recent history certainly says it isn't impossible. Writing it off is defeatist.
Within quite recent history, Virginia was solid red and West Virginia was solid blue.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Within quite recent history, Virginia was solid red and West Virginia was solid blue.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:06 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Greetings from Alaska, where everything is unexpectedly terrible. We have gone from an okayish independent governor with Republican tendencies and a bartisan coalition in charge of one house to the full Republican trifecta (the coalition was torpedoed in large part by a Trump-loving, abortion-and-fluoride-hating wingnut who got a D by his name sucking away more than 10% of the vote from an independent who caucused with the Democrats, handing the seat to a Republican) . Our new governor is a giant asshat who will most likely fail to do anything to solve our giant budget crisis and will undermine public education, the environment and choice. Our congressman is eighty. five. and a misogynist jerk and I really liked the woman running against him and thought she had a chance.
Ugh. I am trying to be happy for the rest of yâall but I am so tired of living in a grossly red state.
posted by charmedimsure at 9:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [43 favorites]
Ugh. I am trying to be happy for the rest of yâall but I am so tired of living in a grossly red state.
posted by charmedimsure at 9:08 AM on November 7, 2018 [43 favorites]
schmod, yes, you're right, and with luck it won't end up being true, but it does keep on peskily being said, and you would think that would have had some effect on the leadership of the state in which it is being constantly said.
Leaving ALS out of it, there's definitely plenty of indication that cyanobacteria are harmful to human health, and ALS, though arguably the most horrifying potential problem, is only one of many potential problems. If it turns out to be an actual problem, it joins a whole host of other actual health problems caused by cyanobacteria in people who spend any time breathing near noxious algae blooms.
http://www.floridahealth.gov/environmental-health/aquatic-toxins/_documents/cyano-faqs-pio.pdf
http://news.algaeworld.org/2017/06/health-director-provides-clarification-on-algaeals-connection/
posted by Don Pepino at 9:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Leaving ALS out of it, there's definitely plenty of indication that cyanobacteria are harmful to human health, and ALS, though arguably the most horrifying potential problem, is only one of many potential problems. If it turns out to be an actual problem, it joins a whole host of other actual health problems caused by cyanobacteria in people who spend any time breathing near noxious algae blooms.
http://www.floridahealth.gov/environmental-health/aquatic-toxins/_documents/cyano-faqs-pio.pdf
http://news.algaeworld.org/2017/06/health-director-provides-clarification-on-algaeals-connection/
posted by Don Pepino at 9:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
What a bizarre news conference by trump. He sounds worn, needy, and pathetic.
posted by mazola at 9:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by mazola at 9:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
I'd like to see gender and sexuality civil rights for education and employment on the table. I don't think it has any hope of passing. But homophobia and transphobia is a campaign plank for Republicans, and Trump, DeVos, and Sessions, et. al. need to get some sort of pushback for anti-LGBTQ executive policy. It's politics whether we like or not, and I'm fucking sick of centrist Dems thinking that sitting on their hands will make it go away.
Similarly, I want for the House to start looking at giving congress better oversight of executive war powers. Again, not really much hope of passing but some political blow-back to the idea that Trump can deploy the Army the week before the election with scary noises about changing rules of engagement.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Similarly, I want for the House to start looking at giving congress better oversight of executive war powers. Again, not really much hope of passing but some political blow-back to the idea that Trump can deploy the Army the week before the election with scary noises about changing rules of engagement.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
zachlipton: NBC calling TN-SEN for Blackburn (R). Sorry Taylor Swift.
One reason why Blackburn's ascension to the Senate matters, from Ars Technica: Net neutrality foe Marsha Blackburn wins US Senate seat (Jon Brodkin, Nov. 7, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 9:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
One reason why Blackburn's ascension to the Senate matters, from Ars Technica: Net neutrality foe Marsha Blackburn wins US Senate seat (Jon Brodkin, Nov. 7, 2018)
US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), one of Congress's most outspoken opponents of strict net neutrality rules, has won a US Senate seat. Blackburn won 54.7 percent of the vote in yesterday's election, defeating Democrat Phil Bredesen, who received 43.9 percent. The vote tally was about 1.23 million to 983,000.Emphasis mine, because being the party of "Oh, Hell No" feels pretty good now.
...
Because Republicans maintained their Senate majority, Blackburn could play a key role in writing net neutrality legislation. Blackburn has authored several net neutrality bills the past few years, including the "Open Internet Preservation Act," which would ban blocking and throttling but allow ISPs to create paid fast lanes and prohibit state governments from enacting their own net neutrality laws. The bill would also prohibit the FCC from imposing any type of common carrier regulations on broadband providers.
Blackburn has argued in favor of paid prioritization, saying that websites and online services should pay ISPs for priority access just as Americans pay for TSA Precheck in order to go through airport security lines faster.
A Blackburn-authored net neutrality bill isn't likely to pass the full Congress because yesterday's elections will let Democrats take control of the House.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
Jon Ralston via Twitter:
Imagine being Sheldon Adelson, who invested a fortune in a GOP House, in @adamlaxalt, in an Energy Choice Initiative, in GOP candidates up and down ticket, to wake up to this headline in the newspaper he owns. Just like Sands through an hourglass, these are the days of our lives.posted by RedOrGreen at 9:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Blue Wave Blowout
Although my nightmare: Trump becomes even more unhinged with a hostile house, Pence walks out of the disaster looking like the Republican's savior.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
The President is giving a press conference in which he is arguing that it is better for the Republicans to have lost the House than to have narrowly kept the House, because it will be easier to maintain party unity. That is an actual thing that is happening. The President believes that Americans are not merely tired of winning, they are tired of the definition of the word winning.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [20 favorites]
What a bizarre news conference by trump. He sounds worn, needy, and pathetic.
And apparently leaked another loss:
And apparently leaked another loss:
Trump just declared Utah Rep. Mia Love the loser in CD4, something even the Utah elections officials haven't done yet.posted by zombieflanders at 9:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
"She lost. Too bad, Mia," Trump said. "She showed me no love."
my nightmare: Trump becomes even more unhinged with a hostile house, Pence walks out of the disaster looking like the Republican's savior.
Any reactionary authoritarian will look like a savior to the GOP, now and forever. Don't lose sleep over it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Any reactionary authoritarian will look like a savior to the GOP, now and forever. Don't lose sleep over it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:15 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94: "The President is giving a press conference in which he is arguing that it is better for the Republicans to have lost the House than to have narrowly kept the House, because it will be easier to maintain party unity. That is an actual thing that is happening."
In a sense, it's true! Most of the "moderates" either retired or lost. Freedom Caucus will have undisputed control now.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
In a sense, it's true! Most of the "moderates" either retired or lost. Freedom Caucus will have undisputed control now.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:16 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
The Trump presser is par for the course for this administration: bragging, lying, excuses, refusing to take any responsibility for any losses.
We're used to this by now, but this whole thing really is just pathetic. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to hold this press conference. And if he was going to speak...any other president would take the opportunity to say "well, we lost a little but we're going to keep fighting" etc. But this man can't take any goddamn responsibility for anything. And he can't stand people having the narrative that he lost.
So he HAS to get in front of the cameras and proclaim great historic victories, never been done before, and then simultaneously cite every reason that they lost the house had nothing to do with him. He has to be 100% correct all the time, and he is never at fault for anything and 0% responsible for anything bad that happens. Regardless of any political affiliation, this is not how an effective leader governs. His time (and others like him in power) needs to come to an end.
Give 'em hell, Nancy.
posted by andruwjones26 at 9:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
We're used to this by now, but this whole thing really is just pathetic. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to hold this press conference. And if he was going to speak...any other president would take the opportunity to say "well, we lost a little but we're going to keep fighting" etc. But this man can't take any goddamn responsibility for anything. And he can't stand people having the narrative that he lost.
So he HAS to get in front of the cameras and proclaim great historic victories, never been done before, and then simultaneously cite every reason that they lost the house had nothing to do with him. He has to be 100% correct all the time, and he is never at fault for anything and 0% responsible for anything bad that happens. Regardless of any political affiliation, this is not how an effective leader governs. His time (and others like him in power) needs to come to an end.
Give 'em hell, Nancy.
posted by andruwjones26 at 9:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
The President is giving a press conference in which he is arguing that it is better for the Republicans to have lost the House than to have narrowly kept the House, because it will be easier to maintain party unity. That is an actual thing that is happening.
In a way, he's not wrong.
The House is going to get zero productive legislation passed in this term. Big surprise, as they basically got zero productive legislation passed in the LAST term. But now they can say "It's all the Democrats' fault" and point to a Democratic majority in the House instead of saying "It's all the Democrats' fault" and pointing to their own majority hamstrung by the Freedom Kookus.
posted by delfin at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
In a way, he's not wrong.
The House is going to get zero productive legislation passed in this term. Big surprise, as they basically got zero productive legislation passed in the LAST term. But now they can say "It's all the Democrats' fault" and point to a Democratic majority in the House instead of saying "It's all the Democrats' fault" and pointing to their own majority hamstrung by the Freedom Kookus.
posted by delfin at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
It also gives Republicans a target. When they held both houses, they were to blame for whatever went wrong. Now, the Democrats have returned to provide them with a convenient boogeyman.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
What a bizarre news conference by trump. He sounds worn, needy, and pathetic.
Trump always sounded needy and pathetic, what's bizarre about that?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Trump always sounded needy and pathetic, what's bizarre about that?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
This entire presser so far is a threat. - @maggieNYT
posted by mazola at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by mazola at 9:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Mod note: One deleted; US politics stuff that's not about this specific election should go in the catchall.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:19 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:19 AM on November 7, 2018
However, Democrats can counter that narrative by coming up with tons of useful legislation and then blaming Republicans for not wanting to work across the aisle. Two can play that game. Pass legislation or enjoy an investigation, take your pick.
posted by Autumnheart at 9:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Autumnheart at 9:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
The House is going to get zero productive legislation passed in this term.
There are always must-pass bills. Some of those bills can be passed with 51 votes in the Senate. In the past, Republicans could pass those bills unilaterally. They did so with the tax cuts. Now, they cannot, and they are forced to negotiate with House Democrats. That is not an improved situation for Republicans. I havenât even mentioned the new powers Democrats have to investigate, subpoena, and impeach.
The President is merely trying to pretend that he always meant to fail, so it wasnât really a failure. I imagine he said the same thing about his bankruptcies, and wives.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [34 favorites]
There are always must-pass bills. Some of those bills can be passed with 51 votes in the Senate. In the past, Republicans could pass those bills unilaterally. They did so with the tax cuts. Now, they cannot, and they are forced to negotiate with House Democrats. That is not an improved situation for Republicans. I havenât even mentioned the new powers Democrats have to investigate, subpoena, and impeach.
The President is merely trying to pretend that he always meant to fail, so it wasnât really a failure. I imagine he said the same thing about his bankruptcies, and wives.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:21 AM on November 7, 2018 [34 favorites]
Incidentally, I fully support pressuring your representatives - especially on the state level - to move some progressive legislation. We've got these trifectas - in many cases for the first time in a loooooong while - and we need them to strike while the iron is hot. Minimum wage, voting rights packages, etc., etc.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:22 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
JackFlash: The last time the Republicans had 60 seats was 1920.
A quick reminder that the party affiliations changed over time, most markedly with the 1964 presidential candidacy of conservative Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. Looking back, it was the Democrats who held much of the positions we consider to be so staunchly Republican now. For examples of former party affiliations and actions:
posted by filthy light thief at 9:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
A quick reminder that the party affiliations changed over time, most markedly with the 1964 presidential candidacy of conservative Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. Looking back, it was the Democrats who held much of the positions we consider to be so staunchly Republican now. For examples of former party affiliations and actions:
After 1890, the white Democrats used a variety of tactics to reduce voting by African Americans and poor whites. In the 1880s, they began to pass legislation making election processes more complicated and in some cases requiring payment of poll taxes, which created a barrier for poor people of both races.It wasn't a quick flip, but the parties of 1920 were not the same as the parties of today.
...
1920 presidential election map showing Democrat James M. Cox winning only the Solid South and Republican Warren G. Harding prevailing in the electoral college. From the time of Reconstruction until the Civil Rights Era, the Southern states consistently supported the Democratic candidate for President.
...
In the 1948 election, after Harry Truman signed an Executive Order to desegregate the Army, a group of conservative Southern Democrats known as Dixiecrats split from the Democratic Party in reaction to the inclusion of a civil rights plank in the party's platform. This followed a floor fight led by civil-rights activist, Minneapolis Mayor (and soon-to-be Senator) Hubert Humphrey. The disaffected conservative Democrats formed the States' Rights Democratic, or Dixiecrat Party and nominated Governor Strom Thurmond of South Carolina for President.
...
After the Democrat George Wallace was elected as Governor of Alabama, he emphasized the connection between states' rights and segregation, both in speeches and by creating crises to provoke federal intervention. He opposed integration at the University of Alabama and collaborated with the Ku Klux Klan in 1963 in disrupting court-ordered integration of public schools in Birmingham.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
> However, Democrats can counter that narrative by coming up with tons of useful legislation and then blaming Republicans for not wanting to work across the aisle. Two can play that game. Pass legislation or enjoy an investigation, take your pick.
Investigations either way, right? We're definitely not trading away any investigation for any kind of legislative cooperation.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Investigations either way, right? We're definitely not trading away any investigation for any kind of legislative cooperation.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
I hope there will be investigations, there better be investigations, but without Senate control there will be no impeachment no matter what is exposed. The best we can hope for is to see trump and his cronies sent to prison once he's out of office.. you know, if he doesn't get re-elected.
Mostly, I sincerely hope Democrats do not descend into squabbling over messaging and make electoral reform and ease of voting their number one issue. We have the votes, but we just don't have democracy.
posted by antinomia at 9:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Mostly, I sincerely hope Democrats do not descend into squabbling over messaging and make electoral reform and ease of voting their number one issue. We have the votes, but we just don't have democracy.
posted by antinomia at 9:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Well, I don't know about boring anymore. He's yelled at Jim Acosta, barked at Peter Alexander to sit down, and just now started shit with April Ryan.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:35 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by zombieflanders at 9:35 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Good Morning Metafilter, I would just like to say this:
"Believe in something, even if it means sacrificing 3.5 million dollars on an idiot that got crushed"
Hahahahahahaha fuck you Phil Knight
Love,
an Oregonian
posted by juice boo at 9:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
"Believe in something, even if it means sacrificing 3.5 million dollars on an idiot that got crushed"
Hahahahahahaha fuck you Phil Knight
Love,
an Oregonian
posted by juice boo at 9:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
Some perspective from Michael Beschloss, historian.
At news conference in East Room, Nixon tells press after Saturday Night Massacre 1973: âDon't get the impression that you arouse my anger. You see, one can only be angry with those he respects."
posted by bluesky43 at 9:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
At news conference in East Room, Nixon tells press after Saturday Night Massacre 1973: âDon't get the impression that you arouse my anger. You see, one can only be angry with those he respects."
posted by bluesky43 at 9:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
The Acosta/Trump press conference interaction. and Peter Alexander. Woah.
posted by bluesky43 at 9:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 9:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
This one feels sooo good:
âAfter President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes in 2016, Walker signed into law a measure mandating that recounts would be allowed only when candidates are projected to be within 1 percentage point of each other.â Walker lost by 1.25%. (@alexanderchee)
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [61 favorites]
âAfter President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by just 23,000 votes in 2016, Walker signed into law a measure mandating that recounts would be allowed only when candidates are projected to be within 1 percentage point of each other.â Walker lost by 1.25%. (@alexanderchee)
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [61 favorites]
He is such a horrible person. He is literally the worst.
He can't control himself, he has to yell at CNN and call them the enemy of the people. After they received bombs.
He is the worst person ever and if there is any justice in the afterlife...it won't be good for him.
posted by andruwjones26 at 9:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
He can't control himself, he has to yell at CNN and call them the enemy of the people. After they received bombs.
He is the worst person ever and if there is any justice in the afterlife...it won't be good for him.
posted by andruwjones26 at 9:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
> The Acosta/Trump press conference interaction. and Peter Alexander. Woah.
Holy shit. This - this unhinged nincompoop is our bigly victorious president.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
Holy shit. This - this unhinged nincompoop is our bigly victorious president.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
I hope there will be investigations, there better be investigations, but without Senate control there will be no impeachment no matter what is exposed. The best we can hope for is to see trump and his cronies sent to prison once he's out of office.. you know, if he doesn't get re-elected.
That would be sad but I'm okay with sending him to prison at age 78.
I don't see why there can't be both investigations and accountability and "bipartisanship." Shit still needs to get done. Services need money and people need help. The thing I desperately hope is that the House Dems remember the last dozen-plus years and start angling smart. Quit pre-negotiating crap. Aim for the moon. Bust out of the gate on day one with offers offully automated luxury gay space communism Medicare for All and negotiate down to expanded and guaranteed funding of the exchanges, better preexisting condition coverage, drug price measures etc.
Then next year go after Medicare for All again. Repeat.
That's the way the Rs have operated for the last few decades. Take a lesson. Health care help is massively popular. Quit doing preemptive surrender on measures that people want. Make em vote no. Make them pass their shitty-ass version in the Senate so you can stand up and over and over again show that the Republican controlled Senate is giving people less than what they want.
posted by phearlez at 9:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [45 favorites]
That would be sad but I'm okay with sending him to prison at age 78.
I don't see why there can't be both investigations and accountability and "bipartisanship." Shit still needs to get done. Services need money and people need help. The thing I desperately hope is that the House Dems remember the last dozen-plus years and start angling smart. Quit pre-negotiating crap. Aim for the moon. Bust out of the gate on day one with offers of
Then next year go after Medicare for All again. Repeat.
That's the way the Rs have operated for the last few decades. Take a lesson. Health care help is massively popular. Quit doing preemptive surrender on measures that people want. Make em vote no. Make them pass their shitty-ass version in the Senate so you can stand up and over and over again show that the Republican controlled Senate is giving people less than what they want.
posted by phearlez at 9:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [45 favorites]
The White House press corps has got to find a way to stop allowing these press conferences to become about the White House press corps. That tells us nothing we do not already know and serves Trump's agenda perfectly.
posted by chimpsonfilm at 9:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by chimpsonfilm at 9:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Oh my, now this is good Beto downballot news!
THE TEXAS BOARD OF EDUCATION IS NOW UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [141 favorites]
THE TEXAS BOARD OF EDUCATION IS NOW UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [141 favorites]
Democrats held or picked up governor and Senate in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Bodes well for a 2020 Dem nominee doing the same.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Oh my goodness that's some huge under-the-radar news. The Texas BOE can basically tell textbook publishers what to print, and they have abused that power relentlessly since before I was in kindergarten.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [52 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [52 favorites]
I hope the Dems build upon their investigations and lack of collaboration across the isle as a reason to get more power in 2020, and remind everyone that Mitch McConnell kept Obama from nominating judges, leaving a gap that Trump has filled with young, white conservative men (NPR, Sept. 2, 2018) List of federal judges appointed by Donald Trump (Wikipedia).
Please don't say "the Republicans did nothing," because that overlooks the damages they've done to the country. Some can be fixed more quickly than others.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Please don't say "the Republicans did nothing," because that overlooks the damages they've done to the country. Some can be fixed more quickly than others.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
He has to be 100% correct all the time, and he is never at fault for anything and 0% responsible for anything bad that happens.
That is Trumpâs MO in a nutshell. Never ever admit to wrongdoing or utter anything âweakâ. Focus on the upside. When backed into a corner, use money and influence to get out. Evidently, it works as well as a political strategy as it did in his personal life. Not only this, but he is encouraging other politicians to play the same game if they value their careers. This is how corruption takes root.
The next 2 years need to be about deeply understanding this and systematically dismantling itâNOT feeding into it. Use the L-word (âliedâ) when it applies. Not for political reasons*, but because we expect better of our leaders.
* i.e. If Democrats want to appeal to people (on both sides of the aisle) who still value truth over âwinning,â they need to avoid temptation to stretch the truth in service of getting political victories. Pick some principles and hold everyone accountable to them. Theyâre not going to beat Trump at his game of glossing over truth to get wins, so they should try a radically different approach.
posted by mantecol at 9:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
That is Trumpâs MO in a nutshell. Never ever admit to wrongdoing or utter anything âweakâ. Focus on the upside. When backed into a corner, use money and influence to get out. Evidently, it works as well as a political strategy as it did in his personal life. Not only this, but he is encouraging other politicians to play the same game if they value their careers. This is how corruption takes root.
The next 2 years need to be about deeply understanding this and systematically dismantling itâNOT feeding into it. Use the L-word (âliedâ) when it applies. Not for political reasons*, but because we expect better of our leaders.
* i.e. If Democrats want to appeal to people (on both sides of the aisle) who still value truth over âwinning,â they need to avoid temptation to stretch the truth in service of getting political victories. Pick some principles and hold everyone accountable to them. Theyâre not going to beat Trump at his game of glossing over truth to get wins, so they should try a radically different approach.
posted by mantecol at 9:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Oh my goodness that's some huge under-the-radar news. The Texas BOE can basically tell textbook publishers what to print, and they have abused that power relentlessly since before I was in kindergarten.
A senate seat can last for a decade or two but a halfway-decent education lasts a lifetime.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
A senate seat can last for a decade or two but a halfway-decent education lasts a lifetime.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Bill Clinton's impeachment didn't have a hope of getting through the Senate, but it kept the scandal perpetually in the news cycle in ways that probably harmed both Gore in the short term and Hillary Clinton many years later. Similarly, the House's perpetual witch hunt of H. Clinton over information security almost certainly helped Trump get elected.
What's good for the goose in this case...
It also provides some teeth against trying to make the Russia investigation by firing the people involved.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
What's good for the goose in this case...
It also provides some teeth against trying to make the Russia investigation by firing the people involved.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick: "THE TEXAS BOARD OF EDUCATION IS NOW UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL. "
I'm not seeing that this is true? The Texas SOS site has no seats changing control (although District 12 was close).
Maybe I'm missing something?
posted by Chrysostom at 9:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
I'm not seeing that this is true? The Texas SOS site has no seats changing control (although District 12 was close).
Maybe I'm missing something?
posted by Chrysostom at 9:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick: Oh my, now this is good Beto downballot news!
THE TEXAS BOARD OF EDUCATION IS NOW UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL.
No joke, I just did an awkward double fist pump dance thing. This is FUCKING FANTASTIC, for the ENTIRE COUNTRY. The State Board of Education (SBOE) sets policies and standards for Texas public schools. And the past jackassess were trying to indoctrinate the youth of Texas AND MUCH OF COUNTRY* with false information (The Daily Cougar, Oct. 4, 2018):
posted by filthy light thief at 10:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
THE TEXAS BOARD OF EDUCATION IS NOW UNDER DEMOCRATIC CONTROL.
No joke, I just did an awkward double fist pump dance thing. This is FUCKING FANTASTIC, for the ENTIRE COUNTRY. The State Board of Education (SBOE) sets policies and standards for Texas public schools. And the past jackassess were trying to indoctrinate the youth of Texas AND MUCH OF COUNTRY* with false information (The Daily Cougar, Oct. 4, 2018):
For years, Texas has been under national scrutiny for their biased textbooks. In September, the Texas Board of Education was urged to remove their descriptions of The Battle of the Alamo being âheroic.â After all, the battle was fought by slave-owning white men, who wanted independence in part due to Mexicoâs ban on slavery.* And because of the sheer number of books that Texas orders, they have a significant sway over the publications that support other schools (Tamim Ansary for Edutopia, November 10, 2004).
This month, the Texas Board of Education has decided to reinstate the âheroic descriptions.â The Board has also decided to remove Hellen Keller and Hillary Clinton from school textbooks.
Elizabeth Gregory, the Director of Womenâs Gender & Sexuality Studies at UH, addressed the problems with this decision.
âIt strikes me that removing Hillary Clinton is a problem, given that she is a recent and important example of civic life. It does seem like a highly politicized decision, rather than an education-focused on, to eliminate the first woman candidate for a major political party,â Gregory said.
The board also voted to soften the discussion of slavery and its impact on the Civil War.
Among the adoption states, Texas, California, and Florida have unrivaled clout. Yes, size does matter. Together, these three have roughly 13 million students in K-12 public schools. The next 18 adoption states put together have about 12.7 millionMel and Norma are dead, but their influence isn't gone, as seen by coverage of the shitty edits that Texas BOE tried to push through mere months ago.
...
The big three adoption states are not equal, however. In that elite trio, Texas rules. California has more students (more than 6 million versus just over 4 million in Texas), but Texas spends just as much money (approximately $42 billion) on its public schools. More important, Texas allocates a dedicated chunk of funds specifically for textbooks. That money can't be used for anything else, and all of it must be spent in the adoption year.
Furthermore, Texas has particular power when it comes to high school textbooks, because California adopts statewide only for textbooks for grades K-8, while the Lone Star State's adoption process applies to textbooks through to 12th grade.
...
In the late '60s, a Texas couple, Mel and Norma Gabler, figured out how to use their state's adoption hearings to put pressure on textbook publishers. The Gablers had no academic credentials or teaching background, but they knew what they wanted taught -- phonics, sexual abstinence, free enterprise, creationism, and the primacy of Judeo-Christian values -- and considered themselves in a battle against a "politically correct degradation of academics."
Expert organizers, the Gablers possessed a flair for constructing arguments out of the language of official curriculum guidelines. The nonprofit corporation they founded 43 years ago, Educational Research Analysts, continues to review textbooks and lobby against liberal content in them.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Montana Senate called for Tester [D-i]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
I can't find a source on the party affiliation of the holders of the seats that weren't up for election for TX SBOE, but 5 of the 7 that were went to Democrats [1], and three were not incumbents. (though two new ones are Republicans and one is a Democrat, so yeah... maybe it's misinformation afterall. dammit. I'll keep digging.)
[1] https://apps.texastribune.org/elections/2018/texas-midterm-election-results/ (scroll down)
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 10:07 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
[1] https://apps.texastribune.org/elections/2018/texas-midterm-election-results/ (scroll down)
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 10:07 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
I was relying on the Texas SOS site and these two (1, 2) Ballotpedia pages, fwiw.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:09 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 10:09 AM on November 7, 2018
Montana Senate called for Tester [D-i]
Red-state dems can win without abandoning all principles. Thanks for stanching the bleed, Jon.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Red-state dems can win without abandoning all principles. Thanks for stanching the bleed, Jon.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:10 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
FYI, per Bangor Daily News, Maine CD2 ranked choice tally won't happen until sometime next week. They need to bring all the ballots to Augusta for the ranked choice counting.
posted by anastasiav at 10:12 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by anastasiav at 10:12 AM on November 7, 2018
Yeah, that's what happened in the primary, too. I think they think (probably fairly) it's a little complex for the local election folks.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
In re the Texas State Board of Education's influence over textbook publishers, as of 2011, school districts in Texas are not required to purchase the textbooks from the SBoE / Texas Education Agency list. They still wield outsized power because most districts (especially smaller and rural ones) go along with the list, but it's not as bad as it used to be.
posted by Etrigan at 10:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 10:17 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Dammit.. It's fake news. Okay, so digging through the bios on https://tea.texas.gov/About_TEA/Leadership/State_Board_of_Education/Board_Members/SBOE_Members/ and the Texas Tribune results, we have an end result of 5 Democrats and 10 Republicans.
Sorry to get everyone's hopes up, including my own.
District 1: D
District 2: D -> D
District 3: D -> D
District 4: D -> D
District 5: R
District 6: R
District 7: R -> R
District 8: R
District 9: R
District 10: R
District 11: R -> R
District 12: R -> R
District 13: D -> D
District 14: R
District 15: R
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 10:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
Sorry to get everyone's hopes up, including my own.
District 1: D
District 2: D -> D
District 3: D -> D
District 4: D -> D
District 5: R
District 6: R
District 7: R -> R
District 8: R
District 9: R
District 10: R
District 11: R -> R
District 12: R -> R
District 13: D -> D
District 14: R
District 15: R
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 10:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
Well, there is some other good Beto news...
@EsotericCD (DecisionDesk)
One of the least-appreciated aspects of Beto O'Rourke's overperformance/Cruz's underperformance in TX-SEN last night: the entire GOP bench of judges was wiped off the map wholesale in Dallas and Houston. The legal topography of the state just changed overnight.
posted by chris24 at 10:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [104 favorites]
@EsotericCD (DecisionDesk)
One of the least-appreciated aspects of Beto O'Rourke's overperformance/Cruz's underperformance in TX-SEN last night: the entire GOP bench of judges was wiped off the map wholesale in Dallas and Houston. The legal topography of the state just changed overnight.
posted by chris24 at 10:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [104 favorites]
Governor take: It was a good night, I think the disappointment was mainly that expectations were so high. We picked up at least 7 seats, the most in a wave in decades. On the other hand, some of the losses really sting.
Pickups:
MI (big for gerrymandering, broke trifecta)
Il (trifecta)
WI (big for gerrymandering, broke trifecta)
Nevada (trifecta)
Kansas (broke trifecta; also Kobach is scum)
New Mexico (trifecta)
Maine (trifecta)
That's pretty good! On the other hand, frustrating misses in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. Oklahoma and South Dakota, but those were always reaches, I think. Same with Arizona.
Georgia and Florida are the ones that really sting (if current results hold, there's still a slim chance in each). Inspiring, exciting candidates against some of the worst the GOP has to offer. Sigh.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
Pickups:
MI (big for gerrymandering, broke trifecta)
Il (trifecta)
WI (big for gerrymandering, broke trifecta)
Nevada (trifecta)
Kansas (broke trifecta; also Kobach is scum)
New Mexico (trifecta)
Maine (trifecta)
That's pretty good! On the other hand, frustrating misses in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. Oklahoma and South Dakota, but those were always reaches, I think. Same with Arizona.
Georgia and Florida are the ones that really sting (if current results hold, there's still a slim chance in each). Inspiring, exciting candidates against some of the worst the GOP has to offer. Sigh.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:20 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
The House is going to get zero productive legislation passed in this term.
IIRC, we couldn't get a DACA fix because Paul Ryan refused to put anything to the floor if he needed Democrats to help pass it. The Freedom Caucus blocked him on this that even some Republicans were rational enough to want. Democrats don't have that problem. And wasn't that the same issue with CHIP? Am I remembering incorrectly?
The change of leadership in the House means some things that need to get done might actually get done now. That's huge. And yes, that means maybe Trump runs around and takes credit for it, and the headline is forever "Democrats Are Winning, Which Is Bad for Democrats," but if it means we can stop the bleeding on things that are getting innocent people deported and having their lives destroyed, so be it.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
IIRC, we couldn't get a DACA fix because Paul Ryan refused to put anything to the floor if he needed Democrats to help pass it. The Freedom Caucus blocked him on this that even some Republicans were rational enough to want. Democrats don't have that problem. And wasn't that the same issue with CHIP? Am I remembering incorrectly?
The change of leadership in the House means some things that need to get done might actually get done now. That's huge. And yes, that means maybe Trump runs around and takes credit for it, and the headline is forever "Democrats Are Winning, Which Is Bad for Democrats," but if it means we can stop the bleeding on things that are getting innocent people deported and having their lives destroyed, so be it.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:27 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
(Not to abuse edit window: Yes, DACA was only in jeopardy because Trump is an ass. Still.)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:29 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:29 AM on November 7, 2018
without Senate control there will be no impeachment no matter what is exposed. The best we can hope for is to see trump and his cronies sent to prison once he's out of office.
AFIAK, only POTUS himself is immune to direct criminal prosecution. For everyone else, anything the House turns up can be handed off to the appropriate legal authorities, whether that's state or federal. (And the president isn't immune to state prosecution, so, if his tax records show he's been pulling shady stuff in NY, that info can be handed over.)
Start those investigations now.
Also drag out that Medicare-for-All legislation draft, and whatever climate protection laws we can throw together ASAP. And rewrite that tax bill - spend some time on that one; they've got about a year to hash through details before the 2020 election season scrambles everyone's brains. Create protections for trans people, and pass the ERA.
Start churning out simple, under-five-pages legislation that does something obviously useful and has few or no costs, and let the Senate explain why they're not passing laws that actually help people.
* Right to breastfeed in public; call it the "natural childcare" bill.
* Minimum wage to automatically raise itself every year to match inflation. (After pushback: change it to every 3 years to avoid the add'l accounting hassles every year, and insist this is the new bipartisan version.)
* Decriminalize marijuana. (After pushback: Restrict the decriminalization to "states that allow legal medical or recreational use," and again, call that the bipartisan compromise. And talk about all the money saved from not needing to enforce it.)
* Make it a crime for doctors to lie to their patients.
I'm not sure if there's a simple help-the-climate law that would have massive public support, but they should definitely try to find one.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
AFIAK, only POTUS himself is immune to direct criminal prosecution. For everyone else, anything the House turns up can be handed off to the appropriate legal authorities, whether that's state or federal. (And the president isn't immune to state prosecution, so, if his tax records show he's been pulling shady stuff in NY, that info can be handed over.)
Start those investigations now.
Also drag out that Medicare-for-All legislation draft, and whatever climate protection laws we can throw together ASAP. And rewrite that tax bill - spend some time on that one; they've got about a year to hash through details before the 2020 election season scrambles everyone's brains. Create protections for trans people, and pass the ERA.
Start churning out simple, under-five-pages legislation that does something obviously useful and has few or no costs, and let the Senate explain why they're not passing laws that actually help people.
* Right to breastfeed in public; call it the "natural childcare" bill.
* Minimum wage to automatically raise itself every year to match inflation. (After pushback: change it to every 3 years to avoid the add'l accounting hassles every year, and insist this is the new bipartisan version.)
* Decriminalize marijuana. (After pushback: Restrict the decriminalization to "states that allow legal medical or recreational use," and again, call that the bipartisan compromise. And talk about all the money saved from not needing to enforce it.)
* Make it a crime for doctors to lie to their patients.
I'm not sure if there's a simple help-the-climate law that would have massive public support, but they should definitely try to find one.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:31 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
More than ever, during this last 48 hours, I am reminded of the season 3 Black Adder election episode, "Dish and Dishonesty," and particularly this bit. "We'll cheat."
posted by Joey Michaels at 10:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Joey Michaels at 10:34 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
> IIRC, we couldn't get a DACA fix because Paul Ryan refused to put anything to the floor if he needed Democrats to help pass it.
Four different DACA bills failed in the Senate. Nothing was going to pass the House, either, but the Senate didn't do its job, and now it's going to look much worse over there.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:34 AM on November 7, 2018
Four different DACA bills failed in the Senate. Nothing was going to pass the House, either, but the Senate didn't do its job, and now it's going to look much worse over there.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:34 AM on November 7, 2018
...I just realized that investigations that subpoena the president mean that Representatives get to ask him questions under oath. A lot of questions. Which will all be recorded and televised.
I don't even care about impeachment proceedings right now (because there's no way that's getting through the Senate), but yes please let's kick off those questions about Russia. I'm not sure we've ever seen him be required to answer hostile questions - the closest was the debates, and those start with heavy preparation and are exceedingly low in fact details.
I want to see Maxine Waters asking him about his campaign funding.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
I don't even care about impeachment proceedings right now (because there's no way that's getting through the Senate), but yes please let's kick off those questions about Russia. I'm not sure we've ever seen him be required to answer hostile questions - the closest was the debates, and those start with heavy preparation and are exceedingly low in fact details.
I want to see Maxine Waters asking him about his campaign funding.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
For those fretting about the size of the Dem majority, keep in mind there are still between 15 and 20 races outstanding. We won't win them all but we'll win some and pad the majority a little.
posted by Justinian at 10:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 10:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Noted without comment.
In Arizona Democrat Sinema trails McSally by 15,000 votes. The Green candidate got 40,000 votes.
posted by JackFlash at 10:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
In Arizona Democrat Sinema trails McSally by 15,000 votes. The Green candidate got 40,000 votes.
posted by JackFlash at 10:38 AM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
well first we get to visit the whole q of whether a sitting prez can be subject to subpoena, which Kavanaugh has opinions about.
posted by angrycat at 10:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by angrycat at 10:39 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
The Green candidate got 40,000 votes.
Getting Republicans Elected Every November
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [70 favorites]
Getting Republicans Elected Every November
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [70 favorites]
My Rep, David Cicilline of RI, announced a while back that he put his name in for Assistant Democratic Leader if we won the House. He's a Vice Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, an active and outspoken Resister, and he got me tickets to the last Obama Inauguration. If this is his first step in moving up the ladder, I'm here for it.
posted by Ruki at 10:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Ruki at 10:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
> well first we get to visit the whole q of whether a sitting prez can be subject to subpoena, which Kavanaugh has opinions about.
I favorited this comment only because it was the closest I could get to a stabby motion.
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I favorited this comment only because it was the closest I could get to a stabby motion.
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
> I want to see Maxine Waters asking him about his campaign funding.
Let's get this out of our heads right now. We are not going to see Donald Trump taking the stand to take hostile questions from House members. Na. Ga. Happen. You'll see some low-level staffers on the stand, and some cabinet secretaries, but if it were possible for Congress to get the President on the stand with subpoena power, Barack Obama would have been sleeping in a cot on a hallway adjacent to the House Chamber for several years.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
Let's get this out of our heads right now. We are not going to see Donald Trump taking the stand to take hostile questions from House members. Na. Ga. Happen. You'll see some low-level staffers on the stand, and some cabinet secretaries, but if it were possible for Congress to get the President on the stand with subpoena power, Barack Obama would have been sleeping in a cot on a hallway adjacent to the House Chamber for several years.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
The Green candidate got 40,000 votes.
Hello. May I interest your State in ranked choice voting?
posted by anastasiav at 10:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
Hello. May I interest your State in ranked choice voting?
posted by anastasiav at 10:42 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
So my big question here is: where is project BLUEMAP and how can I help get it funded, implemented, and active.
Eric Holder's National Democratic Redistricting Committee has been working on this for two years now. They've been funding legal challenges to gerrymandered maps and funding state legislature races to oppose a lot of the work that was done by REDMAP.
posted by Uncle Ira at 10:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
Eric Holder's National Democratic Redistricting Committee has been working on this for two years now. They've been funding legal challenges to gerrymandered maps and funding state legislature races to oppose a lot of the work that was done by REDMAP.
posted by Uncle Ira at 10:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
ErisLordFreedom: Make it a crime for doctors to lie to their patients.
I guess I am confused by the exact sense in which this was meant. Can you explain a bit? Isn't lying to patients already a form of malpractice?
posted by cultcargo at 10:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I guess I am confused by the exact sense in which this was meant. Can you explain a bit? Isn't lying to patients already a form of malpractice?
posted by cultcargo at 10:43 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
why would we assume any significant number of Green voters would pick a Democrat as their #2 choice? at this point, I think they know what they're doing.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Referenda take: More good than bad, I think. Those that caught my eye:
Good:
* Automatic voter registration adopted in Michigan and Nevada. MI also adopted same-day registration and no-cause absentee. MD also added same day registration, kind of.
* Nevada has to be 50% renewable energy by 2030.
* Recreational pot in MI; medical in MO and UT.
* Medicaid expansion in ID, NE, UT.
* NC rejected both measures designed to allow the legislature to hijack power from the governor.
* FL felon re-enfranchisement!
* CO, MO, and MI redistricting reform (probably UT, too)
* CA kept the gas tax.
* MA kept ban on trans discrimination
Bad:
* ND failed recreational pot.
* MT failed to fund Medicaid expansion.
* AR and NC passed voter ID.
* CO didn't limit fracking (although they also didn't pass one to make it even easier)
* CA kept limits on rent control
* CO didn't make the income tax progressive
posted by Chrysostom at 10:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
Good:
* Automatic voter registration adopted in Michigan and Nevada. MI also adopted same-day registration and no-cause absentee. MD also added same day registration, kind of.
* Nevada has to be 50% renewable energy by 2030.
* Recreational pot in MI; medical in MO and UT.
* Medicaid expansion in ID, NE, UT.
* NC rejected both measures designed to allow the legislature to hijack power from the governor.
* FL felon re-enfranchisement!
* CO, MO, and MI redistricting reform (probably UT, too)
* CA kept the gas tax.
* MA kept ban on trans discrimination
Bad:
* ND failed recreational pot.
* MT failed to fund Medicaid expansion.
* AR and NC passed voter ID.
* CO didn't limit fracking (although they also didn't pass one to make it even easier)
* CA kept limits on rent control
* CO didn't make the income tax progressive
posted by Chrysostom at 10:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
It occurs to me that Trump threatened both parties at his presser and showed us a new kind of triangulation: his offer of working with Democrats on health care and infrastructure and DACA and whatever else splits the GOP caucus, while his threat to block Democratic efforts on those issues if Democrats push aggressive House investigations of his presidency (and his businesses) split the Dem caucus.
Itâs a different game this morning.
posted by notyou at 10:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Itâs a different game this morning.
posted by notyou at 10:44 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I will offer SC, SOS/AG, and legislature takes later. A number of things are still outstanding.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:45 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
What is up with the North Carolina "right to hunt and fish" thing? Anyone from North Carolina willing to shed some light on this?
posted by all about eevee at 10:45 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by all about eevee at 10:45 AM on November 7, 2018
Rural pandering, I think. A number of states have these.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Hello. May I interest your State in ranked choice voting?
We don't live in that imaginary world in Arizona so why would anyone vote in Arizona as if it were true?
And secondly, even if there were ranked choice voting, why would anyone vote for someone who doesn't have a prayer of winning. It changes nothing other than some sort of selfish psychic purity.
posted by JackFlash at 10:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
We don't live in that imaginary world in Arizona so why would anyone vote in Arizona as if it were true?
And secondly, even if there were ranked choice voting, why would anyone vote for someone who doesn't have a prayer of winning. It changes nothing other than some sort of selfish psychic purity.
posted by JackFlash at 10:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I guess I am confused by the exact sense in which this was meant. Can you explain a bit? Isn't lying to patients already a form of malpractice?
Not when the lying is about birth defects, to a pregnant woman who might consider an abortion. In many cases, not about abortion in general - doctors are often forbidden to give accurate information to their patients about the risks of pregnancy.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Not when the lying is about birth defects, to a pregnant woman who might consider an abortion. In many cases, not about abortion in general - doctors are often forbidden to give accurate information to their patients about the risks of pregnancy.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Abrams still thinks she has a path to a runoff:
In a 4 a.m. dispatch, the Democratâs campaign explained why Abrams could net the roughly 25,000 ballots needed to trigger a Dec. 4 runoff against Kemp. The runoff would be necessary if neither candidate gets a majority-vote needed to win outright.posted by Chrysostom at 10:49 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
Her campaign argued that only a portion of the mail-in ballots in three metro Atlanta counties â Cobb, DeKalb and Gwinnett â had yet to be counted. And four other large Democratic-leaning counties â Athens-Clarke, Chatham, Douglas and Henry â hadnât tallied any mail-in ballots by 4 a.m.
In all, those seven counties are expected to return at least 77,000 mail-in ballots, the Abrams campaign said.
Another 20,000 or so absentee ballots are set to be counted in Gwinnett County, as are a range of provisional and paper ballots, some cast because of technical issues at polling precincts.
Also in proposition news, it appears LA city rejected the public bank proposal (currently at 42% Yes, LA Times hasn't marked it as called yet though but seems unlikely).
That and prop 10 (allowing local governments to expand rent control) are the only two big disappointments for me among the ballot measures I voted on.
posted by thefoxgod at 10:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
That and prop 10 (allowing local governments to expand rent control) are the only two big disappointments for me among the ballot measures I voted on.
posted by thefoxgod at 10:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
> Abrams still thinks she has a path to a runoff
Oh please oh please oh please
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Oh please oh please oh please
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Before we move too far on from 2018, remember that there are candidates who will need financial support for recounts -- candidates like Lucy McBath in GA-06.
posted by gladly at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by gladly at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Medicaid expansion in ID, NE, UT.
This is significant. Even in the reddest of red states citizens are begrudgingly embracing Obamacare in defiance of their obstructionist Republican legislatures.
posted by JackFlash at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
This is significant. Even in the reddest of red states citizens are begrudgingly embracing Obamacare in defiance of their obstructionist Republican legislatures.
posted by JackFlash at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
even if there were ranked choice voting, why would anyone vote for someone who doesn't have a prayer of winning. It changes nothing other than some sort of selfish psychic purity.
Obviously, 40,000 people voted for someone who doesn't have a chance of winning. Ranked-choice voting would've let their second choice win.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Obviously, 40,000 people voted for someone who doesn't have a chance of winning. Ranked-choice voting would've let their second choice win.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
In Arizona Democrat Sinema trails McSally by 15,000 votes. The Green candidate got 40,000 votes.
To balance this out -- in Montana, Democrat Tester beat the Republican by about 4000 votes. The Libertarian candidate received about 13000 votes.
posted by melissasaurus at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
To balance this out -- in Montana, Democrat Tester beat the Republican by about 4000 votes. The Libertarian candidate received about 13000 votes.
posted by melissasaurus at 10:51 AM on November 7, 2018 [24 favorites]
Bill Nelson proceeding to a recount, has engaged Dem election legal guru Marc Elias.
Still slim chances, but Elias is pretty good.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Still slim chances, but Elias is pretty good.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
It changes nothing other than some sort of selfish psychic purity.
That's .... not true at all.
In Maine, we switched to RCV by public referendum. This is the first statewide election it has been used in, but a broad majority of people favored it because of the "spoiler" effect of third party candidates.
In practice, it means that the small number of people who want very much to support the Greens can do that as their first choice, but they can also choose an "acceptable alternate" (generally one of the mainstream candidates) as a second choice. For us, it changes everything, in that the winning candidate is actually supported (to some extent) by the majority of the people, and a small third party push can both build momentum for the party while also letting people vote for a candidate that is broadly acceptable to them.
posted by anastasiav at 10:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [26 favorites]
That's .... not true at all.
In Maine, we switched to RCV by public referendum. This is the first statewide election it has been used in, but a broad majority of people favored it because of the "spoiler" effect of third party candidates.
In practice, it means that the small number of people who want very much to support the Greens can do that as their first choice, but they can also choose an "acceptable alternate" (generally one of the mainstream candidates) as a second choice. For us, it changes everything, in that the winning candidate is actually supported (to some extent) by the majority of the people, and a small third party push can both build momentum for the party while also letting people vote for a candidate that is broadly acceptable to them.
posted by anastasiav at 10:53 AM on November 7, 2018 [26 favorites]
Referenda take: More good than bad, I think. Those that caught my eye:
alabama had some appalling ones including a grotesque antichoice amendment to the state constitution, and some inexplicable lunatic thing about displaying the ten commandments in schools and public places.
posted by poffin boffin at 10:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
alabama had some appalling ones including a grotesque antichoice amendment to the state constitution, and some inexplicable lunatic thing about displaying the ten commandments in schools and public places.
posted by poffin boffin at 10:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: "Congratulations to the winners in last nightâs US elections, including the historic number of women who will sit in the next House. Canadaâs government will always work in friendship & partnership with our neighbo(u)rs to the South â in Congress and in states across the country."
There's something so quintessentially Canadian about the Prime Minister of Canada making parenthetical use of Canadian spelling in a message to Americans.
posted by orange swan at 10:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [71 favorites]
There's something so quintessentially Canadian about the Prime Minister of Canada making parenthetical use of Canadian spelling in a message to Americans.
posted by orange swan at 10:55 AM on November 7, 2018 [71 favorites]
To balance this out -- in Montana, Democrat Tester beat the Republican by about 4000 votes. The Libertarian candidate received about 13000 votes.
Perhaps, but Montana is a weird state. I could imagine the Libertarian votes splitting evenly for Tester.
posted by JackFlash at 10:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Perhaps, but Montana is a weird state. I could imagine the Libertarian votes splitting evenly for Tester.
posted by JackFlash at 10:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
We are not going to see Donald Trump taking the stand to take hostile questions from House members.
I dont need to see Donald take the stand and endure hours of withering testimony under oath. Don Jr., Erik, Ivanka, Jarrod, Jeff Sessions, Every Trump organization accountant and C level employee, every individual CEO and CFO of every organization in NYC and elsewhere that worked with Trump Co., every banking officer involved in every major financial transaction with Trump Co., including current and past individuals such as Justice Kennedy's son, every small businessman that Trump Co. has ever stiffed or defrauded.... Those folks I want to hear from. Early. Often. Under oath. If Benghazi was a endless fishing trip, I want the next 2 years to be like fucking Moby Dick.
posted by Chrischris at 10:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [62 favorites]
I dont need to see Donald take the stand and endure hours of withering testimony under oath. Don Jr., Erik, Ivanka, Jarrod, Jeff Sessions, Every Trump organization accountant and C level employee, every individual CEO and CFO of every organization in NYC and elsewhere that worked with Trump Co., every banking officer involved in every major financial transaction with Trump Co., including current and past individuals such as Justice Kennedy's son, every small businessman that Trump Co. has ever stiffed or defrauded.... Those folks I want to hear from. Early. Often. Under oath. If Benghazi was a endless fishing trip, I want the next 2 years to be like fucking Moby Dick.
posted by Chrischris at 10:56 AM on November 7, 2018 [62 favorites]
And secondly, even if there were ranked choice voting, why would anyone vote for someone who doesn't have a prayer of winning. It changes nothing other than some sort of selfish psychic purity.
Depending on your state and municipality, gaining a certain small percentage of the vote can help with campaign financing or even getting a place on the ballot for the next election. This is also very helpful in primaries or elections where you have more than two strong candidates.
Minneapolis has RCV for local elections and it's nice - for one thing, it cuts down on the 'you MUST vote for person #1 or person #2 will win' campaigning.
posted by dinty_moore at 10:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Depending on your state and municipality, gaining a certain small percentage of the vote can help with campaign financing or even getting a place on the ballot for the next election. This is also very helpful in primaries or elections where you have more than two strong candidates.
Minneapolis has RCV for local elections and it's nice - for one thing, it cuts down on the 'you MUST vote for person #1 or person #2 will win' campaigning.
posted by dinty_moore at 10:57 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
I'm not sure if there's a simple help-the-climate law that would have massive public support, but they should definitely try to find one.
How about federal PACE loans for solar installations?
Or just strip out all of the pork for oil and gas, and point to the savings with respect to the deficit. (Okay, I know this isn't something that would actually have a lot of bi-partisan support, especially because of all of the deep red oil and gas states.)
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 10:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
How about federal PACE loans for solar installations?
Or just strip out all of the pork for oil and gas, and point to the savings with respect to the deficit. (Okay, I know this isn't something that would actually have a lot of bi-partisan support, especially because of all of the deep red oil and gas states.)
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 10:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
It looks to me like we're likely to pick up between 7 and 9 additional House seats when all the counting is done, which would give us a majority of around 230-208. Not a massive majority but enough extra votes for a bit of wiggle room.
posted by Justinian at 11:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Bad:
* CA kept limits on rent control
On the other hand, the housing bond for mental illness passed, and Prop 1 for low income housing I think is pending a call.
posted by benzenedream at 11:00 AM on November 7, 2018
* CA kept limits on rent control
On the other hand, the housing bond for mental illness passed, and Prop 1 for low income housing I think is pending a call.
posted by benzenedream at 11:00 AM on November 7, 2018
It changes nothing other than some sort of selfish psychic purity.
Were I an elected official (while this is yet another reason I never would be), I would be very interested in how many of my voters settled for me and would rather support someone who was ideologically different from me, and in which direction.
posted by Etrigan at 11:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Were I an elected official (while this is yet another reason I never would be), I would be very interested in how many of my voters settled for me and would rather support someone who was ideologically different from me, and in which direction.
posted by Etrigan at 11:00 AM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Take all oil & gas pork. Give 50% to renewable energy subsidies, 50% returned to the people. And send them a check - people ate it up when W did that.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:01 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:01 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
The final 538 Deluxe model, which Silver said was likely to be the most accurate, averaged a Dem gain of 36 House seats and a Dem loss of 0.5 Senate seats. The final election results look to be a Dem gain of... 36ish House seats and a Dem loss of 2 Senate seats.
That's a pretty dang good model. The loss of 2 Senate seats vs an average of a 0.5 seat loss is clearly margin of error stuff, particularly with the extraordinarily close races in Florida and Arizona. We could easily be talking about a net gain of 0.
posted by Justinian at 11:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [26 favorites]
That's a pretty dang good model. The loss of 2 Senate seats vs an average of a 0.5 seat loss is clearly margin of error stuff, particularly with the extraordinarily close races in Florida and Arizona. We could easily be talking about a net gain of 0.
posted by Justinian at 11:04 AM on November 7, 2018 [26 favorites]
Looks like Gillum may be un-conceding his race and going for a recount - April Ryan on Twitter: Early this am the @AP had @RepDeSantis at 49.7% and @AndrewGillum at 49%. The Gillum camp contends he conceded too early and they are not finished as the votes continue to come in an the margin narrows.
posted by Emmy Rae at 11:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [33 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 11:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [33 favorites]
Miami-Dade Among Highest Rejection Rates for Mailed-in Ballots (this is a pre-election report, from a week ago, we won't have numbers for this race for a while)
posted by zachlipton at 11:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
Statewide, one percent of VBM ballots are rejected. In Miami-Dade, the rejection rate is 1.9 percent - the third highest rate in the state.Other countries around the world manage not to do this, right?
For black and Hispanic voters, 2.7 percent of mail-in ballots are rejected. That's the second-highest rate in the state for black voters.
Ballots can be rejected for two reasons: voters either failed to sign the envelope or the signature did not match the one on file.
...
It would be wrong to assume a large share of older voters in Miami-Dade boosts the rejection rate because, perhaps, older voters have more trouble following the instructions. The ACLU-Florida study found voters under 22 years old were eight times more likely to have their vote rejected than those 65 or older.
posted by zachlipton at 11:09 AM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
Un-conceding in Florida, something sounds familiar about that....
posted by Chrysostom at 11:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:11 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
Looks like the Brooks Brothers may need to get the mob back together
posted by Flashman at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by Flashman at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
My old home state of Missouri continues to be confounding, but at least Steve West (R) â the guy whose kids said "He must be stopped. His ideology is pure hatred" â lost in a landslide in his bid for the state general assembly.
posted by lisa g at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [22 favorites]
posted by lisa g at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2018 [22 favorites]
Ballots can be rejected for two reasons: voters either failed to sign the envelope or the signature did not match the one on file.
If they voter failed to sign the ballot, though, there isn't really anything to do about that, is there? I would assume there is no appeal on those ballots, no wiggle room.
posted by anastasiav at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2018
If they voter failed to sign the ballot, though, there isn't really anything to do about that, is there? I would assume there is no appeal on those ballots, no wiggle room.
posted by anastasiav at 11:13 AM on November 7, 2018
I was really confused -- shocked -- by Gillum's early concession. Is there any reporting on why, exactly, the concession happened?
Other countries around the world manage not to do this, right?
yes, but they're not still litigating the terms of a civil war fought in the name of oppression, disenfranchisement, and slavery :/
posted by halation at 11:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Other countries around the world manage not to do this, right?
yes, but they're not still litigating the terms of a civil war fought in the name of oppression, disenfranchisement, and slavery :/
posted by halation at 11:14 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94: "The President is giving a press conference in which he is arguing that it is better for the Republicans to have lost the House than to have narrowly kept the House, because it will be easier to maintain party unity. That is an actual thing that is happening."
In a sense, it's true! Most of the "moderates" either retired or lost. Freedom Caucus will have undisputed control now.
Well, yes and no. You are right that lots of moderates lost last night (though there were some surprise losses among the more fanatical Republicans), but being minority leader only takes half of the Republicans rather than half of the whole House, which means the Freedom Caucus has far less power to shake up leadership now. They once were the 20 votes that could bring down a speaker. Now they're nothing.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 11:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
In a sense, it's true! Most of the "moderates" either retired or lost. Freedom Caucus will have undisputed control now.
Well, yes and no. You are right that lots of moderates lost last night (though there were some surprise losses among the more fanatical Republicans), but being minority leader only takes half of the Republicans rather than half of the whole House, which means the Freedom Caucus has far less power to shake up leadership now. They once were the 20 votes that could bring down a speaker. Now they're nothing.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 11:18 AM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Science Returns to the House - Rebecca Leber, Mother Jones
Maggie Koerth-Baker has been counting Congresspeople with STEM backgrounds. Current count is 18, pending the results of 5 races that haven't been officially declared yet.
posted by ZeusHumms at 11:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [40 favorites]
The Committee on Science, Space, and Technology may finally live up to its name.Emphasis mine.
...
There will be radical changes coming, according to Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Texas Democrat who is a ranking member of the committee and likely to become the next chair. A former chief psychiatric nurse, she would be the first House science committee chair with a STEM background since the 1990s, according to Washington Post reporter Sarah Kaplan.
Johnson has already laid out her priorities for the future of the committee should she become chair. They include âdefending the scientific enterprise from political and ideological attacks, and challenging misguided or harmful Administration actions.â Another priority will be to acknowledge climate change is real âand working to understand the ways we can mitigate it.â And, lastly, she called to âRestore the credibility of the Science Committee as a place where science is respected and recognized as a crucial input to good policymaking.â Democrats would have the power to investigate the Environmental Protection Agencyâs changes to its scientific advisory boards and its use of science in regulatory policy, for starters.
That agenda will be a sharp break from [the priorities of current chair Lamar Smith (R-TX)]. Smith regularly called hearings to investigate a debunked âpauseâ in global warming, a myth manufactured by skeptics, and laid the rubric for the EPAâs radical science overhaul that would have effectively stripped scientific reports from being considered in rulemaking.
Maggie Koerth-Baker has been counting Congresspeople with STEM backgrounds. Current count is 18, pending the results of 5 races that haven't been officially declared yet.
posted by ZeusHumms at 11:25 AM on November 7, 2018 [40 favorites]
What a shocker:
@NBCNews: JUST IN: Pentagon says it will no longer refer to the US military mission at the Mexico border as âOperation Faithful Patriot;â no reason given for the change on the day after the US midterm elections - @ckubeNBC
I imagine a whole lot of people in the Pentagon and elsewhere are hoping to make that whole thing just fade away into the night. (PS, fuck Jim Mattis for ever going along with this shit in the first place.)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [38 favorites]
@NBCNews: JUST IN: Pentagon says it will no longer refer to the US military mission at the Mexico border as âOperation Faithful Patriot;â no reason given for the change on the day after the US midterm elections - @ckubeNBC
I imagine a whole lot of people in the Pentagon and elsewhere are hoping to make that whole thing just fade away into the night. (PS, fuck Jim Mattis for ever going along with this shit in the first place.)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [38 favorites]
What is up with the North Carolina "right to hunt and fish" thing? Anyone from North Carolina willing to shed some light on this?
posted by all about eevee at 1:45 PM on November 7
North Carolinian by birth, but no longer by residence. My understanding is that it's designed to provide a legal avenue to challenge future hunting or fish restrictions, but the text doesn't really seem like it'd have any teeth there. I've also heard that it was designed to get rural voters to the polls, and of course, the NRA loves it. They've pushed similar amendments in most other Southern states.
Of course, the biggest threat the North Carolina's hunting culture is the GA GOP's shitty environmental stances.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 11:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by all about eevee at 1:45 PM on November 7
North Carolinian by birth, but no longer by residence. My understanding is that it's designed to provide a legal avenue to challenge future hunting or fish restrictions, but the text doesn't really seem like it'd have any teeth there. I've also heard that it was designed to get rural voters to the polls, and of course, the NRA loves it. They've pushed similar amendments in most other Southern states.
Of course, the biggest threat the North Carolina's hunting culture is the GA GOP's shitty environmental stances.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 11:26 AM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
If they voter failed to sign the ballot, though, there isn't really anything to do about that, is there? I would assume there is no appeal on those ballots, no wiggle room.
In FL, you can request a ballot correction affidavit, which you must complete and bring to your Supervisor of Elections along with a photo ID by 5pm the day before the election. Otherwise, it just gets tossed.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 11:29 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
In FL, you can request a ballot correction affidavit, which you must complete and bring to your Supervisor of Elections along with a photo ID by 5pm the day before the election. Otherwise, it just gets tossed.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 11:29 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
What a shocker:
@NBCNews: JUST IN: Pentagon says it will no longer refer to the US military mission at the Mexico border as âOperation Faithful Patriot;â no reason given for the change on the day after the US midterm elections
"Operation Well I Guess That Didn't Work" won't fit on the medals.
posted by Etrigan at 11:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
@NBCNews: JUST IN: Pentagon says it will no longer refer to the US military mission at the Mexico border as âOperation Faithful Patriot;â no reason given for the change on the day after the US midterm elections
"Operation Well I Guess That Didn't Work" won't fit on the medals.
posted by Etrigan at 11:36 AM on November 7, 2018 [25 favorites]
That stuff is probably better for the real politics thread?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:38 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 11:38 AM on November 7, 2018
That stuff is probably better for the real politics thread?
Is there anyone who's willing to say that the caravan andOperation Faithful Patriot weren't purely election stories from start to finish?
posted by Etrigan at 11:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Is there anyone who's willing to say that the caravan and
posted by Etrigan at 11:40 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
What is up with the North Carolina "right to hunt and fish" thing?
It's an upballot thing. You imply that fishing and hunting are under threat to get predominantly conservative voters to show up during the midterms. And while they're there, they might as well vote R for the candidates.
posted by Candleman at 11:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
It's an upballot thing. You imply that fishing and hunting are under threat to get predominantly conservative voters to show up during the midterms. And while they're there, they might as well vote R for the candidates.
posted by Candleman at 11:41 AM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Prob better to take ongoing stuff about caravan and media coverage to the other thread -- ideally we'd stick to election results in here and everything else over there.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:42 AM on November 7, 2018
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:42 AM on November 7, 2018
Seems like Missouri voters hate Democratic candidates... but love Democratic policy positions.
There is a constituency in the US for "kinda socialism for white people", which is why places like the Dakotas had moderate Dem senators for a while, before elections were more nationalised. There is no real constituency in the US for Paul Ryan's economic agenda without it being wrapped in white nationalism, which is why the GOP closing argument was the damn caravan, which the press regurgitated like suckers.
So yeah, one way that can resolve itself is voting for liberal policies when the option presents itself -- see also the Medicaid expansion votes -- but not for liberals.
posted by holgate at 11:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
There is a constituency in the US for "kinda socialism for white people", which is why places like the Dakotas had moderate Dem senators for a while, before elections were more nationalised. There is no real constituency in the US for Paul Ryan's economic agenda without it being wrapped in white nationalism, which is why the GOP closing argument was the damn caravan, which the press regurgitated like suckers.
So yeah, one way that can resolve itself is voting for liberal policies when the option presents itself -- see also the Medicaid expansion votes -- but not for liberals.
posted by holgate at 11:46 AM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
So⌠Remember how much time and money and hard work we put in over the past two years to get this result? If we want Democrats to take the White House and the Senate in 2020, we need to do even more in the next two years. Iâm exhausted just thinking about it, but hopeful too. We know now that the voters and volunteers and candidates are out there, and weâre as motivated as ever.
2016 was the first election my now middle-school-aged child was ever engaged in, and I think it was all the more crushing a defeat because of that. In 2017, in addition to frequent marches and protests, we poured our energy into WA Initiative 940, which passed yesterday. This is her first real taste of electoral victory, and Iâm happy she got to be a part of it by spending dozens of hours stuffing envelopes, gathering and counting signatures, making signs, and helping out the staff at the local campaign office.
Iâm also happy that millions more people are now represented by women at almost every level of government, and especially that the next generation will grow up with women in power as a normal fact of life. Where I live, both of my U.S. senators are women and so are my U.S. representative, my mayor, my neighborhoodâs city council member, my state senator, and one of my two state representatives.
On the pessimistic side, Iâm disturbed that backlash is such a strong force in U.S. politics. We can elect an Obama, but then we get years of Republican congressional majorities. Democratic energy this year is surely thanks in part to backlash against Trump. Over the long term we may get progress if we work hard enough, but in the short term the pendulum always swings back before swinging forward again, making that progress very fragile and hard to see.
posted by mbrubeck at 11:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
2016 was the first election my now middle-school-aged child was ever engaged in, and I think it was all the more crushing a defeat because of that. In 2017, in addition to frequent marches and protests, we poured our energy into WA Initiative 940, which passed yesterday. This is her first real taste of electoral victory, and Iâm happy she got to be a part of it by spending dozens of hours stuffing envelopes, gathering and counting signatures, making signs, and helping out the staff at the local campaign office.
Iâm also happy that millions more people are now represented by women at almost every level of government, and especially that the next generation will grow up with women in power as a normal fact of life. Where I live, both of my U.S. senators are women and so are my U.S. representative, my mayor, my neighborhoodâs city council member, my state senator, and one of my two state representatives.
On the pessimistic side, Iâm disturbed that backlash is such a strong force in U.S. politics. We can elect an Obama, but then we get years of Republican congressional majorities. Democratic energy this year is surely thanks in part to backlash against Trump. Over the long term we may get progress if we work hard enough, but in the short term the pendulum always swings back before swinging forward again, making that progress very fragile and hard to see.
posted by mbrubeck at 11:48 AM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
Something to keep in mind when lamenting Sinema's probable loss by less than the Green Pary margin: Kyrsten Sinema started her political career as a Green Party activist attempting to spoil it for Democrats. I very much wish she had won but, you know, live by the sword and die by the sword.
posted by Justinian at 11:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 11:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Looks like Georgia Secretary of State is going to runoff (unless those yet to be counted ballots decide it). GOPer Raffensperger leads 49.2 to 48.6 over Dem Barrow.
Obviously, in the eventuality of a Kemp governorship, a Dem in at SOS would be even more critical.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Obviously, in the eventuality of a Kemp governorship, a Dem in at SOS would be even more critical.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:50 AM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Probably a recount in Florida Ag Commissioner, too - it's within 0.2%.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:52 AM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Couple deleted; Jeff Sessions stuff in the catchall thread please.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:54 AM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I was really confused -- shocked -- by Gillum's early concession. Is there any reporting on why, exactly, the concession happened?
I'd love a rational explanation on why any concessions happen but I'll be honest and say I'm sure I wouldn't believe them. Our national obsession with wrapping up elections within hours makes me crazy. There's some valid reasons to know a Presidential result sooner since there might be a transition to plan for. Incoming House or Senate seats are orders of magnitude less complicated to prepare for. Why not just wait for the professionals to do their job and finish counting? Politics has plenty of real emergencies but this one is entirely self-created.
posted by phearlez at 11:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
I'd love a rational explanation on why any concessions happen but I'll be honest and say I'm sure I wouldn't believe them. Our national obsession with wrapping up elections within hours makes me crazy. There's some valid reasons to know a Presidential result sooner since there might be a transition to plan for. Incoming House or Senate seats are orders of magnitude less complicated to prepare for. Why not just wait for the professionals to do their job and finish counting? Politics has plenty of real emergencies but this one is entirely self-created.
posted by phearlez at 11:58 AM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
The Slot (Jezebel): Let's Send Off the Worst Pieces of Shit Who Just Lost Their Elections
posted by tonycpsu at 12:05 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 12:05 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
It's sort of strange to see people paint Beto as a socialist left-winger, because actually he ran a very Obama-esque moderate campaign. He is just really good at it. His whole thing was bipartisanship and crossing the aisle and listening to everyone. Now, he didn't compromise on things like universal healthcare and a woman's right to choose. But really, he isn't a leftist firebrand.
I made the mistake last night of reading a Politico port-mortem of the TX sen race cause I was looking for hard numbers, and they just went on about how Beto was so liberal and that's what cost him the win.
That's so freaking ignorant of Texas politics. He didn't lose because he was so far left. He NEARLY WON because he was willing to stand by things that people actually support. In Texas we're used to Democrats who sound like moderate Republicans and who mumble when asked about hard questions like abortion and police brutality. And then we have 30% turnout and the GOP wins.
Beto turned people out because he was willing to be bold and honest. But still, his positions should honestly be middle-of-the-road for Dems. But somehow both the right and the left seem determined to label him a socialist. It's weird.
posted by threeturtles at 12:07 PM on November 7, 2018 [63 favorites]
I made the mistake last night of reading a Politico port-mortem of the TX sen race cause I was looking for hard numbers, and they just went on about how Beto was so liberal and that's what cost him the win.
That's so freaking ignorant of Texas politics. He didn't lose because he was so far left. He NEARLY WON because he was willing to stand by things that people actually support. In Texas we're used to Democrats who sound like moderate Republicans and who mumble when asked about hard questions like abortion and police brutality. And then we have 30% turnout and the GOP wins.
Beto turned people out because he was willing to be bold and honest. But still, his positions should honestly be middle-of-the-road for Dems. But somehow both the right and the left seem determined to label him a socialist. It's weird.
posted by threeturtles at 12:07 PM on November 7, 2018 [63 favorites]
So: Beto, Gillum, and Abrams - what do these three races have in common?
Extraordinary vote suppression.
In Texas, it's harder to register to vote than perhaps anywhere else in the country.
In Florida, until yesterday, more than a million citizens were denied voting rights (as chris24 said above, "1.4 million more D leaning voters in a state we always seem to lose by 100K").
In Georgia, Kemp oversaw unprecedented levels of voter registration purges and other shenanigans.
This - along with all the wins in the House, and in governor races, and state legislatures - all makes me very hopeful for the next 10 years.
Bit by bit, state by state, motor voter and other forms of automatic registration are becoming normalized. As more states expand voting rights and make voting easier, it will be harder for holdouts to continue justifying vote suppression. A Democratic House can help drive that message.
PLUS, all the wins we won this week mean a whole new batch of Dem incumbents, which means an incumbent advantage for our new Dem reps going forward. We'll still have to work to get them re-elected, but they'll have that name recognition next time.
PLUS, the past two years of Indivisible and postcard writing and "call your legislators" has become something of a habit for a lot more people. As I've said before, I've voted in every single election I could, including all mid-terms, my whole life. But I've rarely contacted my representatives, even though I vaguely knew I probably should if I could just manage to get around to it. The past two years, I have made dozens of calls to my representatives - including local representatives. I've become aware of what my local public servants are up to. I've finally become the engaged citizen I should have been all along.
We're in the early days of building the habit, learning, individually, all of us, that we have to take part - not just once every four years, not just voting for president, but ongoing, week after week, federal, state, and local. This is where we cement those habits, keep building them, reinforcing them with our friends, and our co-workers, and our family members. This is the time for "hey, did you hear about that great bill our representative just introduced?" - because few of us really know what our reps are up to most of the time. (I mean, seriously. I see a lot of comments in these threads about how the Dems must introduce this bill or that bill, but I so rarely see anyone talk about something the Dems actually HAVE introduced - like this nice comment about Sen Wyden's data privacy bill. Can YOU name a bill your rep has introduced or co-sponsored recently?)
I'm so sad about Beto. I'm hoping Gillum and Abrams may still emerge victorious (and I'm so glad they're both continuing to insist on every vote being counted!). But we just got a lot of reinforcement for all the work we've done over the past two years - and some pretty clear evidence that the biggest threat to a healthy government is vote suppression.
This was just retweeted by Battleground Texas:
"The current margin in the TX Senate race is 213,750. How about we register that margin before the 2020 primary, friends. And, then build on it for the general? "
Taking the House is a great start. I can't wait to see how we build on that.
posted by kristi at 12:07 PM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
Extraordinary vote suppression.
In Texas, it's harder to register to vote than perhaps anywhere else in the country.
In Florida, until yesterday, more than a million citizens were denied voting rights (as chris24 said above, "1.4 million more D leaning voters in a state we always seem to lose by 100K").
In Georgia, Kemp oversaw unprecedented levels of voter registration purges and other shenanigans.
This - along with all the wins in the House, and in governor races, and state legislatures - all makes me very hopeful for the next 10 years.
Bit by bit, state by state, motor voter and other forms of automatic registration are becoming normalized. As more states expand voting rights and make voting easier, it will be harder for holdouts to continue justifying vote suppression. A Democratic House can help drive that message.
PLUS, all the wins we won this week mean a whole new batch of Dem incumbents, which means an incumbent advantage for our new Dem reps going forward. We'll still have to work to get them re-elected, but they'll have that name recognition next time.
PLUS, the past two years of Indivisible and postcard writing and "call your legislators" has become something of a habit for a lot more people. As I've said before, I've voted in every single election I could, including all mid-terms, my whole life. But I've rarely contacted my representatives, even though I vaguely knew I probably should if I could just manage to get around to it. The past two years, I have made dozens of calls to my representatives - including local representatives. I've become aware of what my local public servants are up to. I've finally become the engaged citizen I should have been all along.
We're in the early days of building the habit, learning, individually, all of us, that we have to take part - not just once every four years, not just voting for president, but ongoing, week after week, federal, state, and local. This is where we cement those habits, keep building them, reinforcing them with our friends, and our co-workers, and our family members. This is the time for "hey, did you hear about that great bill our representative just introduced?" - because few of us really know what our reps are up to most of the time. (I mean, seriously. I see a lot of comments in these threads about how the Dems must introduce this bill or that bill, but I so rarely see anyone talk about something the Dems actually HAVE introduced - like this nice comment about Sen Wyden's data privacy bill. Can YOU name a bill your rep has introduced or co-sponsored recently?)
I'm so sad about Beto. I'm hoping Gillum and Abrams may still emerge victorious (and I'm so glad they're both continuing to insist on every vote being counted!). But we just got a lot of reinforcement for all the work we've done over the past two years - and some pretty clear evidence that the biggest threat to a healthy government is vote suppression.
This was just retweeted by Battleground Texas:
"The current margin in the TX Senate race is 213,750. How about we register that margin before the 2020 primary, friends. And, then build on it for the general? "
Taking the House is a great start. I can't wait to see how we build on that.
posted by kristi at 12:07 PM on November 7, 2018 [72 favorites]
Houston Chronicle, Promise not to kill anyone? After losing election, TX judge wholesale releases juvenile defendants
posted by zachlipton at 12:08 PM on November 7, 2018 [53 favorites]
After losing his bench in a Democratic sweep the night before, Harris County Juvenile Court Judge Glenn Devlin released nearly all of the youthful defendants that appeared in front him on Wednesday morning, simply asking the kids whether they planned to kill anyone before letting them go.It didn't get much attention, and I know partisian judicial elections creep a lot of people out, but the blue wave in some of these Texas judicial elections was huge.
"He was releasing everybody," said public defender Steven Halpert, who watched the string of surprising releases. "Apparently he was saying that's what the voters wanted."
...
To Alex Bunin, the county's chief public defender, the sudden leniency was simply baffling.
"I'm not sure that I can wrap my arms around what he's actually doing," he said. "It's a huge change and the only thing that has happened is that he was not elected so I don't know what to attribute it to other than that."
posted by zachlipton at 12:08 PM on November 7, 2018 [53 favorites]
phearlez: Our national obsession with wrapping up elections within hours makes me crazy. There's some valid reasons to know a Presidential result sooner since there might be a transition to plan for. Incoming House or Senate seats are orders of magnitude less complicated to prepare for. Why not just wait for the professionals to do their job and finish counting? Politics has plenty of real emergencies but this one is entirely self-created.
I'm now listening to the most recent Radiolab episode, and the Irish person they interviewed about the single-transferable vote system claims that one reason Ireland switched from an electronic system (for tabulating the inherently-rather-complicated ballots) back to a physical handcount was the excitement and romance of an all-day tabulation, like a sporting event. Of course, a much better reason is the vulnerabilities of computer systems, but I kind of like that answer too. It might be kind of nice, for the sake of our sleep (except for those of us who would lie awake anyway) if the day after the election was generally regarded as the Vote Counting Day.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:16 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I'm now listening to the most recent Radiolab episode, and the Irish person they interviewed about the single-transferable vote system claims that one reason Ireland switched from an electronic system (for tabulating the inherently-rather-complicated ballots) back to a physical handcount was the excitement and romance of an all-day tabulation, like a sporting event. Of course, a much better reason is the vulnerabilities of computer systems, but I kind of like that answer too. It might be kind of nice, for the sake of our sleep (except for those of us who would lie awake anyway) if the day after the election was generally regarded as the Vote Counting Day.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:16 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
"He was releasing everybody," said public defender Steven Halpert, who watched the string of surprising releases. "Apparently he was saying that's what the voters wanted."
I mean, not that I'm upset about a bunch of kids not going to jail, but isn't there some form of legal or ABA examination that steps in when a judge is clearly making decisions in an nonjudicial manner? I know that's a naive question, but still . . .
posted by Think_Long at 12:17 PM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
I mean, not that I'm upset about a bunch of kids not going to jail, but isn't there some form of legal or ABA examination that steps in when a judge is clearly making decisions in an nonjudicial manner? I know that's a naive question, but still . . .
posted by Think_Long at 12:17 PM on November 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Voters in Portland (the Oregon one) also passed a clean energy bill that will levy a 1 percent tax on businesses that make over $1 billion in gross revenues nationally and $500,000 locally. This will fund clean energy programs and job training in an effort to meet clean energy goals set by the city.
This seemed to be popular because it will only affect giant corporations, mostly based out of state. Portlanders have some pride in supporting smaller, local businesses. And everyone likes the idea of clean energy, even if they're not sure of how to go about getting it. Other cities could look at this bill as a model for similar measures.
posted by lisa g at 12:20 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
This seemed to be popular because it will only affect giant corporations, mostly based out of state. Portlanders have some pride in supporting smaller, local businesses. And everyone likes the idea of clean energy, even if they're not sure of how to go about getting it. Other cities could look at this bill as a model for similar measures.
posted by lisa g at 12:20 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Arizona update:
More than 600k early ballots left to count in Arizona, per sources, At least 500k in Maricopa, 80 to 100k in Pima per officials there, and likely 40k in Pinal per @Garrett_Archer.posted by Chrysostom at 12:27 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I mean, not that I'm upset about a bunch of kids not going to jail, but isn't there some form of legal or ABA examination that steps in when a judge is clearly making decisions in an nonjudicial manner? I know that's a naive question, but still . . .
Looks like a tantrum based on the Republican fiction that all Democrats are actively pro-crime, combined with a fairly cynical media stunt. He's saying the equivalent of "Okay, if you want a Dem, I guess I'll just throw open the doors and let all the Bad People out like a Dem would."
posted by Kitty Stardust at 12:27 PM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
Looks like a tantrum based on the Republican fiction that all Democrats are actively pro-crime, combined with a fairly cynical media stunt. He's saying the equivalent of "Okay, if you want a Dem, I guess I'll just throw open the doors and let all the Bad People out like a Dem would."
posted by Kitty Stardust at 12:27 PM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
Think_Long: Generally there are appeals, but when dealing with criminal cases need to figure out if double-jeopardy has attached. If it has, not much anyone can do.
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 12:28 PM on November 7, 2018
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 12:28 PM on November 7, 2018
More on Texas judges:
One of the least-appreciated aspects of Beto O'Rourke's overperformance/Cruz's underperformance in TX-SEN last night: the entire GOP bench of judges was wiped off the map wholesale in Dallas and Houston. The legal topography of the state just changed overnight.posted by Chrysostom at 12:28 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
In more personal aftermath, as usual not a single person I voted for in my Very Red County won. I was upset that at the county level, not a single position was contested. But then I saw the results for the Dem running for state legislature. He ran a good campaign, with signs and mailers, and got his name out there. But he only got 19% of the vote.
I don't know how to make rural Texas not just a waste of money for Democrats. I guess on the plus side, the local Dem party had a goal of 1100 votes for Beto in the county and got 1400, so they tried their best.
Also I mentioned a little while ago in the megathread an acquaintance of mine who was a young gay man who didn't know who to vote for in the Senate race. He and his boyfriend both voted for Cruz. I just...don't know. I don't get it at all.
posted by threeturtles at 12:30 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
I don't know how to make rural Texas not just a waste of money for Democrats. I guess on the plus side, the local Dem party had a goal of 1100 votes for Beto in the county and got 1400, so they tried their best.
Also I mentioned a little while ago in the megathread an acquaintance of mine who was a young gay man who didn't know who to vote for in the Senate race. He and his boyfriend both voted for Cruz. I just...don't know. I don't get it at all.
posted by threeturtles at 12:30 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
Good:
* Automatic voter registration adopted in Michigan and Nevada.
I'll be happy when they automatically register me for my rights to free speech, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, shooty things, to not incriminate myself, and...er, I guess I don't have to register for those rights.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:30 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
* Automatic voter registration adopted in Michigan and Nevada.
I'll be happy when they automatically register me for my rights to free speech, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, shooty things, to not incriminate myself, and...er, I guess I don't have to register for those rights.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:30 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
@daveweigel: A sobering fact for Ohio Democrats: Richard Cordray won more votes (2,020,128) than John Kasich did to win a 2-1 landslide in 2014 (1,922,436). Trump-era Ohio Republicans simply smashed through the model with rural voters.
This leads to some real questions about how or if Democrats can possibly win Ohio in 2020.
posted by zachlipton at 12:30 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
This leads to some real questions about how or if Democrats can possibly win Ohio in 2020.
posted by zachlipton at 12:30 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
@Nate_Cohn:
posted by zachlipton at 12:35 PM on November 7, 2018
Upshot/Siena results (preliminary)These were some damn fine polls.
Finished 11/4: avg error 1.9 pts, bias R+0.4
Final 30 polls: 2.9 pts, R+0.5
"Final wave": 3.4 pts, R+0.7
All polls: 4.2 points, R+0.9
posted by zachlipton at 12:35 PM on November 7, 2018
So GOPer Guy Reschenthaler won PA-14, the red bit of the old Conor Lamb district. Reschenthaler's current job is PA State Senator. To fill that, we'll need a...
SPECIAL ELECTION!
In MY district!
AND I'm on the county Dem committee, so I'll get to vote for who we nominate!
posted by Chrysostom at 12:35 PM on November 7, 2018 [73 favorites]
SPECIAL ELECTION!
In MY district!
AND I'm on the county Dem committee, so I'll get to vote for who we nominate!
posted by Chrysostom at 12:35 PM on November 7, 2018 [73 favorites]
Dem gain in CA-49, as Mike Levin defeats Diane Harkey. This is the old Issa seat.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:37 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 12:37 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
Chrysostom I've been meaning to ask, how many elections did you personally win this time around?
posted by juice boo at 12:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
posted by juice boo at 12:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
The one to my heart, at least...
posted by RolandOfEld at 12:41 PM on November 7, 2018 [30 favorites]
posted by RolandOfEld at 12:41 PM on November 7, 2018 [30 favorites]
I went to sleep disappointed about Stacey Abramsâ dwindling hopes in GA, but woke up and donated to Lucy McBathâs (GA-06) legal fund to ensure the recount in her district is handled as fairly as can be done there given the circumstances. I assume that means "send in the lawyers."
I have taken a (probably unhealthy) interest in out-of-state races for this cycle, but still had to google who McBath was recently because I was curious of who was running against Handel this time; so little had been written about her or this race, at the national level at least, and it seemed pundits wrote her off after Handel won the special election despite all the attention and money that went into Ossoffâs campaign. I didn't see the race included in many "D pickoff opportunities" listicles even as it tightened in the last weeks. Her story of why she ran (gun safety/control platform; she lost a son to gun violence) is particularly inspiring, but apparently her victory needs to be properly defended because Kemp and his cronies are undeserving of any kind of trust in a recount.
posted by jpolorolu at 12:41 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
I have taken a (probably unhealthy) interest in out-of-state races for this cycle, but still had to google who McBath was recently because I was curious of who was running against Handel this time; so little had been written about her or this race, at the national level at least, and it seemed pundits wrote her off after Handel won the special election despite all the attention and money that went into Ossoffâs campaign. I didn't see the race included in many "D pickoff opportunities" listicles even as it tightened in the last weeks. Her story of why she ran (gun safety/control platform; she lost a son to gun violence) is particularly inspiring, but apparently her victory needs to be properly defended because Kemp and his cronies are undeserving of any kind of trust in a recount.
posted by jpolorolu at 12:41 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
I have taken a (probably unhealthy) interest in out-of-state races for this cycle
My ballot in PA had no competitive races, and the entire state went blue. I started caring about GA because of Stacey Abrams, and then Kemp was such a cartoonish villain, I wanted the entire state to flip. I also think the left has winnable territory in the south with good candidates, if only we can combat voter suppression.
posted by gladly at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
My ballot in PA had no competitive races, and the entire state went blue. I started caring about GA because of Stacey Abrams, and then Kemp was such a cartoonish villain, I wanted the entire state to flip. I also think the left has winnable territory in the south with good candidates, if only we can combat voter suppression.
posted by gladly at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think GA-06 was under the radar a bit because it's quite unusual for officeholders who won a special to turn around and lose in the subsequent general. I mean, you just picked this person right?
Apparently, African-American turnout was much higher this time, not surprisingly.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018
Apparently, African-American turnout was much higher this time, not surprisingly.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018
After some earlier questions of possible additional absentee ballots bringing things back into recount margins, Gov. Scott Walker concedes to Democrat Tony Evers
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018 [28 favorites]
It seems to me like fucky vote-suppressing shenanigans was a big part of the Republican wins (or "wins") in Georgia and Florida. And making it difficult to vote meant Cruz won in TX. This is where the down-ballot amendments and getting D's in the state legislature makes a difference, as well as making it easy for D's to vote (see: Reid Machine in Nevada).
Is there any way to have some sort of voting-rights commission look into GA and FL? It's not passing the smell test at all for me.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Is there any way to have some sort of voting-rights commission look into GA and FL? It's not passing the smell test at all for me.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Sorry if I missed it - but was someone able to confirm the switch to Dem control of the Texas Board of Ed? I couldn't find it. Thx.
posted by anya32 at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018
posted by anya32 at 12:46 PM on November 7, 2018
Sorry if I missed it - but was someone able to confirm the switch to Dem control of the Texas Board of Ed? I couldn't find it. Thx.
It did not happen.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 12:51 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
It did not happen.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 12:51 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
California here we come!
@markzbarabak: NEWS: Steve Knight just called Katie Hill to concede in CA25. A Democratic pickup and a big political shift for the once-strongly conservative high desert outside Los Angeles.
posted by zachlipton at 12:55 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
@markzbarabak: NEWS: Steve Knight just called Katie Hill to concede in CA25. A Democratic pickup and a big political shift for the once-strongly conservative high desert outside Los Angeles.
posted by zachlipton at 12:55 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
In addition to the other excellent comments pushing back against "the Senate is a write off. The Republicans will own it forever": things change. People change. States change.
Two months ago I commented on a great article Chrysostom posted about Arizona teachers finally getting angry and organizing after YEARS of budget cuts by Republican lawmakers. The article is full of Republican teachers who are asking for change and getting called socialists for their trouble. Some of them became Democrats. Some of them were not prepared to stop calling themselves Republicans after a lifetime of being one, but starting looking more seriously at what Republicans were doing, and what Democrats were doing, and started voting for Democrats even if they didn't yet wholeheartedly embrace all things Democrat.
Right now, I'm seeing fewer than 20,000 votes separating McSally (R) and Sinema (D) in the Arizona Senate race. In 2012, Flake got 49% of the vote, about 70K more than Carmona. In 2016, McCain got 54% of the vote, about 320K more than Kirkpatrick. There are lifetime Republican voters in Arizona right now who have voted for Sinema, because they've finally seen what today's Republican party has done to their state.
I sure would love to live in a world where we all were more aware of how politicians' actions actually affect our lives, where we all had the time to understand all the issues, where the media did a good job of presenting useful information about what our representatives are doing. But even absent those things, people can and do change, and states can and do change. Certainly not fast enough for my liking; but assuming it can never happen means not running a candidate, not supporting that change, not putting in the time and effort to bring that change about more quickly.
I absolutely think it's good to be strategic about where we put most of our time and energy, but personally, I'm not giving up on any region, any state, anybody.
posted by kristi at 12:56 PM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
Two months ago I commented on a great article Chrysostom posted about Arizona teachers finally getting angry and organizing after YEARS of budget cuts by Republican lawmakers. The article is full of Republican teachers who are asking for change and getting called socialists for their trouble. Some of them became Democrats. Some of them were not prepared to stop calling themselves Republicans after a lifetime of being one, but starting looking more seriously at what Republicans were doing, and what Democrats were doing, and started voting for Democrats even if they didn't yet wholeheartedly embrace all things Democrat.
Right now, I'm seeing fewer than 20,000 votes separating McSally (R) and Sinema (D) in the Arizona Senate race. In 2012, Flake got 49% of the vote, about 70K more than Carmona. In 2016, McCain got 54% of the vote, about 320K more than Kirkpatrick. There are lifetime Republican voters in Arizona right now who have voted for Sinema, because they've finally seen what today's Republican party has done to their state.
I sure would love to live in a world where we all were more aware of how politicians' actions actually affect our lives, where we all had the time to understand all the issues, where the media did a good job of presenting useful information about what our representatives are doing. But even absent those things, people can and do change, and states can and do change. Certainly not fast enough for my liking; but assuming it can never happen means not running a candidate, not supporting that change, not putting in the time and effort to bring that change about more quickly.
I absolutely think it's good to be strategic about where we put most of our time and energy, but personally, I'm not giving up on any region, any state, anybody.
posted by kristi at 12:56 PM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
But wait, there's more! (Kim is the D.)
Amy S. Rosenberg (Philly Inquirer)
NEW in #NJ03 from Jan Hefler at the Burlington County courthouse: Totals that include Vote by Mail ballots increased Andy Kim's total by nearly 15K and Tom MacArthur's total by 10K, which would appear to swing total current results to Kim's favor. More TK
posted by chris24 at 12:58 PM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Amy S. Rosenberg (Philly Inquirer)
NEW in #NJ03 from Jan Hefler at the Burlington County courthouse: Totals that include Vote by Mail ballots increased Andy Kim's total by nearly 15K and Tom MacArthur's total by 10K, which would appear to swing total current results to Kim's favor. More TK
posted by chris24 at 12:58 PM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
If I'm adding this up right, women are now a majority in the Nevada Assembly (22/42). They're just below majority in the Senate, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:02 PM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 1:02 PM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Rosie M. Banks: "Is there any way to have some sort of voting-rights commission look into GA and FL? It's not passing the smell test at all for me."
I'm sure the Dem House could investigate it.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:03 PM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
I'm sure the Dem House could investigate it.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:03 PM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Something really extraordinary happened with one of the downticket races in Alabama last night. Mallory Hagan (D), running for a House seat from District 3, lost to the GOP's Mike Rogers. Her speech to her supporters afterward called Alabama's _Democratic_ party to the carpet for their lack of support. A friend of mine worked on her campaign and was there and says that the whispers going around the room beforehand were âWe didnât get the support of the state-wide Democratic party because we didnât come up with enough money to bribe them. We couldnât afford it.â And then the candidate came out and named names.
Extraordinary night, and incredibly energizing for the folks fighting for small town Alabama.
posted by Maaik at 1:05 PM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
Extraordinary night, and incredibly energizing for the folks fighting for small town Alabama.
posted by Maaik at 1:05 PM on November 7, 2018 [32 favorites]
I grew up in Minnesota and haven't lived there for about ten years now, but pretty proud of our slate last night. Two women senators, a Muslim congresswoman, a third consecutive term of Dem governorship (I was antsy that people just like to flip after two terms), an indigenous woman as lieutenant governor (good setup for governor/senator in the future!), MN's first lesbian congresswoman, and several new Hmong state-house legislators-most of whose families came here as refugees.
Duck, duck, rainbow duck!
posted by nakedmolerats at 1:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
Duck, duck, rainbow duck!
posted by nakedmolerats at 1:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
NEWS: Steve Knight just called Katie Hill to concede in CA25.
This district falls partly within my home turf and I am SO relieved at this result, since I made the decision to focus my efforts more locally and barely helped her campaign at all.
posted by contraption at 1:17 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
This district falls partly within my home turf and I am SO relieved at this result, since I made the decision to focus my efforts more locally and barely helped her campaign at all.
posted by contraption at 1:17 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
This doesn't include the Kim NJ03 possibility above, so 233-202, D+38 is where it could end.
Geoffrey Skelley (538)
If Dems win the six close CA House races (which seems more likely than not), ME-2 (RCV probably gets it), and the others where they lead but are uncalled, and the GOP wins where they lead, the final House count will be 232-203 Democratic, which would be a D+37 result.
posted by chris24 at 1:18 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Geoffrey Skelley (538)
If Dems win the six close CA House races (which seems more likely than not), ME-2 (RCV probably gets it), and the others where they lead but are uncalled, and the GOP wins where they lead, the final House count will be 232-203 Democratic, which would be a D+37 result.
posted by chris24 at 1:18 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Duck, duck, grayinbow duck!, surely.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 1:18 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 1:18 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Mental Wimp : I'll be happy when they automatically register me for my rights to free speech, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, shooty things, to not incriminate myself, and...er, I guess I don't have to register for those rights.
YOU HAVE JUST SOLVED THE GUN CONTROL DEBATE! ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED!
If you have to register to vote, you have to register your firearms.
posted by mikelieman at 1:34 PM on November 7, 2018 [43 favorites]
YOU HAVE JUST SOLVED THE GUN CONTROL DEBATE! ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED!
If you have to register to vote, you have to register your firearms.
posted by mikelieman at 1:34 PM on November 7, 2018 [43 favorites]
The Stacey Abrams campaign has launched an aggressive provisional and absentee ballot chase
posted by Maaik at 1:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [53 favorites]
posted by Maaik at 1:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [53 favorites]
ND Senate:
Heitkamp got her high Native American turnout, by the way. On the Sioux reservation, she got about 26% higher turnout for her than in 2012, a presidential year. She still lost by 10% because the rest of the state moved hard to the right.posted by Chrysostom at 1:42 PM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
Frank Rich is a national treasure:
Will anything that happened yesterday make the party rethink that strategy?
Trump is the Republican Party. Most of the few remaining feckless, and, frankly, worthless âmoderateâ Republicans in the House were wiped out yesterday even as a quasiâNazi sympathizer like Steve King won reelection in Iowa. So the notion that âthe partyâ might rethink anything is a non sequitur. The only question is whether Trump would rethink anything, and the answer is a resounding no. His entire political program is white male nationalism, with a full arsenal of racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, and homophobia that he wields with both glee and malice for his own political (and often financial) profit. I doubt that he would change course even if there had been a two-chamber blue wave in the midterms. He certainly wonât change it now. As his morning-after tweetfest predictably reveals, he thinks he won. He is plotting more MAGA rallies for the start of the year. More immigrant caravans will soon be wall-to-wall on Fox. The moment presumptive Democratic House committee chairmen like Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler start wielding gavels, we will be hearing about how they are in the pay of George Soros and other shadowy âglobalists.â
posted by growabrain at 1:43 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Will anything that happened yesterday make the party rethink that strategy?
Trump is the Republican Party. Most of the few remaining feckless, and, frankly, worthless âmoderateâ Republicans in the House were wiped out yesterday even as a quasiâNazi sympathizer like Steve King won reelection in Iowa. So the notion that âthe partyâ might rethink anything is a non sequitur. The only question is whether Trump would rethink anything, and the answer is a resounding no. His entire political program is white male nationalism, with a full arsenal of racism, misogyny, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia, and homophobia that he wields with both glee and malice for his own political (and often financial) profit. I doubt that he would change course even if there had been a two-chamber blue wave in the midterms. He certainly wonât change it now. As his morning-after tweetfest predictably reveals, he thinks he won. He is plotting more MAGA rallies for the start of the year. More immigrant caravans will soon be wall-to-wall on Fox. The moment presumptive Democratic House committee chairmen like Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler start wielding gavels, we will be hearing about how they are in the pay of George Soros and other shadowy âglobalists.â
posted by growabrain at 1:43 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
If you want or need something to do with your activist energies, consider Postcards to Voters. They'll be writing postcards for special elections starting pretty much immediately. You can write as few as 4 postcards (or as many as you like). I wrote 925 postcards since Trump was elected, 4-10 at a time, and I found it be soothing (here are a few of them) since 1. I was doing something pro-active and positive and 2. it involved coloring (it doesn't have to involve coloring but I like my postcards to be colorful). If you'd like to get involved, text HELLO to Abby the Address Bot at 1-484-ASK-ABBY (which is 1-484-275-2229).
posted by joannemerriam at 1:47 PM on November 7, 2018 [38 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 1:47 PM on November 7, 2018 [38 favorites]
Is there any way to have some sort of voting-rights commission look into GA and FL? It's not passing the smell test at all for me.
If I understand the Voting Rights Act correctly then states can still be sued for violation but that depends on the Department of Justice wanting to do that.
At least in GA, the closing of polling places that was designed to suppress the black vote would not have been allowed pre-Shelby. So, the Supreme Court is doing some lifting there.
posted by Automocar at 1:51 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
If I understand the Voting Rights Act correctly then states can still be sued for violation but that depends on the Department of Justice wanting to do that.
At least in GA, the closing of polling places that was designed to suppress the black vote would not have been allowed pre-Shelby. So, the Supreme Court is doing some lifting there.
posted by Automocar at 1:51 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Is there any way to have some sort of voting-rights commission look into GA and FL? It's not passing the smell test at all for me.
Let's be clear. There absolutely were illegal election-stealing shenanigans. That is not in question from any observant person. The question is: how do we do something about it?
Bonus points: same for 2016 POTUS. Show your work.
And that's the starting gun for the Representative-elect Dems. Get off the fence and start swinging. He's never going to run out of rope. Take that whole cancerous administration out.
And finally: pretty good results in an environment where Trump is still somehow not in jail and the press can't yet seem to call him on his lying, racist, baby-jailing ways. (They're getting there, but c'mon.)
Neverending Magical Doughnuts to those of you who did the righteous work on the ground, you should be proud of good work that will continue to pay forward. Thank You!
posted by petebest at 2:13 PM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Let's be clear. There absolutely were illegal election-stealing shenanigans. That is not in question from any observant person. The question is: how do we do something about it?
Bonus points: same for 2016 POTUS. Show your work.
And that's the starting gun for the Representative-elect Dems. Get off the fence and start swinging. He's never going to run out of rope. Take that whole cancerous administration out.
And finally: pretty good results in an environment where Trump is still somehow not in jail and the press can't yet seem to call him on his lying, racist, baby-jailing ways. (They're getting there, but c'mon.)
Neverending Magical Doughnuts to those of you who did the righteous work on the ground, you should be proud of good work that will continue to pay forward. Thank You!
posted by petebest at 2:13 PM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Oh, I had this on my list for a fun fact to mention last night if Dems took the House, and I forgot.
Anyway, with thanks to Jim Manley because I'm not enough of a nerd to know this one. have you ever heard of the Holman Rule?
Can the House reduce Stephen Miller's salary to $1? I'm not sure, and there are some pretty good constitutional arguments why they shouldn't, but man would it sure be fun to try.
posted by zachlipton at 2:24 PM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
Anyway, with thanks to Jim Manley because I'm not enough of a nerd to know this one. have you ever heard of the Holman Rule?
The Holman Rule is a rule in the United States House of Representatives that allows amendments to appropriations legislation that would reduce the salary of or fire specific federal employees, or cut a specific program. The rule was first enacted in 1876 and rescinded in 1983, and was reinstated in January 2017 on a temporary basis.Under the rule, which is of somewhat questionable constitutionality after its use in McCarthyism, the House can just pass an appropriations bill that straight up reduces a named federal employee's salary or eliminates specific positions.
Can the House reduce Stephen Miller's salary to $1? I'm not sure, and there are some pretty good constitutional arguments why they shouldn't, but man would it sure be fun to try.
posted by zachlipton at 2:24 PM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
Can the House reduce Stephen Miller's salary to $1? I'm not sure, and there are some pretty good constitutional arguments why they shouldn't, but man would it sure be fun to try.
i kinda suspect that miller would be racist on spec?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:32 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
i kinda suspect that miller would be racist on spec?
posted by murphy slaw at 2:32 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
If you do what you love, you'll never work a day in your life.
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:38 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:38 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
"Calling all FL hands!!! We have tens of thousands of rejected absentee ballots that we can get perfected before the deadline tomorrow at 5pm, but we need YOUR help. Please send an email to. katharinepriegues@floridadems.org" - (D) Pam Keith - FL
This link directs to Twitter.
posted by _Mona_ at 2:53 PM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
This link directs to Twitter.
posted by _Mona_ at 2:53 PM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
Several Oregon counties passed this wtf-gun-rights measure.
posted by Thorzdad at 2:54 PM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 2:54 PM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Local-level New Mexico election news: a good number of Dem pick-ups in local positions, including sheriff, but in the the state House of Representative races, Republicans held their positions, but the numbers were close! We'll do more next time!
posted by filthy light thief at 3:00 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by filthy light thief at 3:00 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I'm confused by the twitter post above regarding rejected absentee ballots in FL. I thought problems had to be resolved by 5pm the day before election day? At least that's how I understand this information on the Florida Secretary of State website.
I'd love to pitch in to this effort, but I don't understand what it is they can do.
posted by telepanda at 3:05 PM on November 7, 2018
I'd love to pitch in to this effort, but I don't understand what it is they can do.
posted by telepanda at 3:05 PM on November 7, 2018
filthy light thief: "Local-level New Mexico election news: a good number of Dem pick-ups in local positions, including sheriff, but in the the state House of Representative races, Republicans held their positions, but the numbers were close! We'll do more next time!"
Dems picked up a seat on the NM Supreme Court, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:07 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Dems picked up a seat on the NM Supreme Court, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:07 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
You'll be shocked to know that Rs in WI are just as undemocratic as ones in NC.
Patrick Marley (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)
BREAKING: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says he is thinking of taking power away from Gov.-elect Tony Evers even before he is sworn in.
This would be done in a lame duck session sometime over the next 2 months.
Senate Majority Ldr. Scott Fitzgerald hasn't said if he is on board.
Fitzgerald is willing to consider this, per a spokesman:
"He has said previously that he is open to it, and plans to discuss the topic with Senate Republican caucus members tomorrow."
posted by chris24 at 3:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Patrick Marley (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)
BREAKING: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says he is thinking of taking power away from Gov.-elect Tony Evers even before he is sworn in.
This would be done in a lame duck session sometime over the next 2 months.
Senate Majority Ldr. Scott Fitzgerald hasn't said if he is on board.
Fitzgerald is willing to consider this, per a spokesman:
"He has said previously that he is open to it, and plans to discuss the topic with Senate Republican caucus members tomorrow."
posted by chris24 at 3:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Banana Republicans: This sounds very much like its from the Third World somewhere, can it be true? I mean legally?
BREAKING: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says he is thinking of taking power away from Gov.-elect Tony Evers even before he is sworn in. This would be done in a lame duck session sometime over the next 2 months. Senate Majority Ldr. Scott Fitzgerald hasn't said if he is on board.posted by talos at 3:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
telepanda, I sent an email (I live in FL) and will report back what I hear. I have no idea either.
posted by _Mona_ at 3:10 PM on November 7, 2018
posted by _Mona_ at 3:10 PM on November 7, 2018
flt, the GOP only held on to the Rio Rancho NM House seats. With a overall statewide pickup of 8 seats, the NM House has the biggest Dem advantage since '96.
posted by joedan at 3:11 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by joedan at 3:11 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Sigh, this is why it is so unfortunate they weren't able to flip two Wisconsin Senate seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:14 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 3:14 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
So apparently Kemp decided to go that extra mile and doxx nearly 300,000 voters.
posted by miss-lapin at 3:51 PM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by miss-lapin at 3:51 PM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
No, Brian Kemp Did Not Just Doxx Georgia VotersâBut the Reality Is Somehow Worse
posted by C'est la D.C. at 4:02 PM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by C'est la D.C. at 4:02 PM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Kemp's replacement as Georgia Secretary of State is headed for a runoff vote. Any Georgians looking to vent some anger at Kemp winning could do worse than to campaign for Barrow, and prevent Kemp 2.0 from reanimating.
posted by benzenedream at 4:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by benzenedream at 4:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
MeFi favorite Anne Helen Peterson on Buzzfeed takes umbrage at the emphasis on blue wave "failure": The Beto O'Rourke Campaign Built a Democratic Machine In Texas:
Which, again, puts the Texas numbers into perspective: a 500% increase in early voter turnout among young people, and a 500% increase in registrations of young Latino voters, is remarkable no matter what; itâs more remarkable given how difficult it was for those people to get registered and vote in the first place.
OâRourke convinced a whole lot of people to do it anyway. Which is why itâs frustrating for many Texans to see those in more liberal and liberal-controlled states reacting to the loss the way many are. âWeeks ago, I wasnât dreading Beto losing nearly as much as I was dreading the inevitable âTexas sucksâ takes from people who are supposed to be our progressive allies,â Huff, who grew up in Fort Worth, told me. On election night, one liberal pundit grouped Texas with Syria, Florida, Russia, Georgia, and Saudi Arabia in a tweet as âplaces [he plans] to deliberately not visit and spend money over the next few yearsâ â which infuriated an Austin resident named Stella, who canât use her last name because sheâs a state employee. âThere are more Dems in Texas than there are people in most other states,â she said. For her, election night was filled with good news. âWe made huge improvements, including getting rid of some truly awful Texas Republicans⌠Feels like oxygen to me.â
posted by TwoStride at 4:19 PM on November 7, 2018 [59 favorites]
Which, again, puts the Texas numbers into perspective: a 500% increase in early voter turnout among young people, and a 500% increase in registrations of young Latino voters, is remarkable no matter what; itâs more remarkable given how difficult it was for those people to get registered and vote in the first place.
OâRourke convinced a whole lot of people to do it anyway. Which is why itâs frustrating for many Texans to see those in more liberal and liberal-controlled states reacting to the loss the way many are. âWeeks ago, I wasnât dreading Beto losing nearly as much as I was dreading the inevitable âTexas sucksâ takes from people who are supposed to be our progressive allies,â Huff, who grew up in Fort Worth, told me. On election night, one liberal pundit grouped Texas with Syria, Florida, Russia, Georgia, and Saudi Arabia in a tweet as âplaces [he plans] to deliberately not visit and spend money over the next few yearsâ â which infuriated an Austin resident named Stella, who canât use her last name because sheâs a state employee. âThere are more Dems in Texas than there are people in most other states,â she said. For her, election night was filled with good news. âWe made huge improvements, including getting rid of some truly awful Texas Republicans⌠Feels like oxygen to me.â
posted by TwoStride at 4:19 PM on November 7, 2018 [59 favorites]
Yeah, these turnout numbers are insane.
Anne Helen Petersen
Total Texas Voter Turnout in 2018, according to the Secretary of State: 52.8% (!!!!)
In 2016, for the presidential election: 51.6%
In 2014, for the midterm election: 28.5%
posted by chris24 at 4:22 PM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
Anne Helen Petersen
Total Texas Voter Turnout in 2018, according to the Secretary of State: 52.8% (!!!!)
In 2016, for the presidential election: 51.6%
In 2014, for the midterm election: 28.5%
posted by chris24 at 4:22 PM on November 7, 2018 [42 favorites]
Houston Chronicle: Hidalgo, Surprise Victor In Harris County Judge Race, Prepares to Lead
â"It was not an accident," she said Wednesday afternoon after a whirlwind day of interviews with television reporters who wanted to know more about her. "We saw it coming, and it took a lot of hard work."
âHidalgo, a graduate student and community advocate who returned to Houston this past summer determined to find a position to campaign for, has less than two months to prepare to lead the third most populous county in the United States.â
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:35 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
â"It was not an accident," she said Wednesday afternoon after a whirlwind day of interviews with television reporters who wanted to know more about her. "We saw it coming, and it took a lot of hard work."
âHidalgo, a graduate student and community advocate who returned to Houston this past summer determined to find a position to campaign for, has less than two months to prepare to lead the third most populous county in the United States.â
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:35 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Quite the mess is unfolding in Porter County, Indiana, in the outer reaches of Chicagoland, where as yet no election results have been reported. The county commissioners have requested an FBI investigation due to "scores of alleged violations of Indiana Election Law."
A few months ago, the Republican county clerk, who also sits on the county election board, joined with the other Republican member of board to transfer authority over the elections from the voter registration office to her own department. Apparently that wasn't such a great idea.
Hanging in the balance are two state house races in outer-ring suburban districts. In IN-HD-19, most of which lies outside the county, Democratic challenger Lisa Beck leads the incumbent 51-49, with the outcome riding on the 6% of her prospective district in Porter County. And in IN-HD-14, where Democratic challenger Frank Szczepanski has been running a remarkably strong ground-level campaign, not a single vote has yet been counted. The counts are supposed to be released tomorrow, but given how things have been going, it's anyone's guess.
posted by shenderson at 5:49 PM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
A few months ago, the Republican county clerk, who also sits on the county election board, joined with the other Republican member of board to transfer authority over the elections from the voter registration office to her own department. Apparently that wasn't such a great idea.
Hanging in the balance are two state house races in outer-ring suburban districts. In IN-HD-19, most of which lies outside the county, Democratic challenger Lisa Beck leads the incumbent 51-49, with the outcome riding on the 6% of her prospective district in Porter County. And in IN-HD-14, where Democratic challenger Frank Szczepanski has been running a remarkably strong ground-level campaign, not a single vote has yet been counted. The counts are supposed to be released tomorrow, but given how things have been going, it's anyone's guess.
posted by shenderson at 5:49 PM on November 7, 2018 [16 favorites]
In hyper-local Missouri election news, Kansas Citians approved a new library tax with 83% support. If you're one of those (mythical?) coast-dwellers looking for a red state to dilute, you could do a lot worse than KCMO. Come buy a house!
(I'm not a realtor.)
posted by slenderloris at 5:52 PM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
(I'm not a realtor.)
posted by slenderloris at 5:52 PM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
Andy Kim (NJ-3) just declared victory over Tom MacArthur.
I worked on this campaign full time for about four weeks, so I'm drinking a glass of wine to celebrate this one.
posted by galaxy rise at 6:02 PM on November 7, 2018 [39 favorites]
I worked on this campaign full time for about four weeks, so I'm drinking a glass of wine to celebrate this one.
posted by galaxy rise at 6:02 PM on November 7, 2018 [39 favorites]
And another one... NM02
Matthew Reichbach (NMReport)
Looks like Torres Small netted 4,564 votes from 8,350 absentees.
She needed less than 2,000. #nmpol #nm02
Torres Small has 99,.435 votes
Herrell has 96,711 votes.
50.59% to 49.31%
Even with those 1,000 provisional ballots left, it looks like Torres Small won. Wow. #nmpol #nm02
Thanks @ProkopDani for the reporting!
@DKElections
Holy smokes. Dem Xochitl Torres Small has taken the lead in #NM02!
posted by chris24 at 6:19 PM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
Matthew Reichbach (NMReport)
Looks like Torres Small netted 4,564 votes from 8,350 absentees.
She needed less than 2,000. #nmpol #nm02
Torres Small has 99,.435 votes
Herrell has 96,711 votes.
50.59% to 49.31%
Even with those 1,000 provisional ballots left, it looks like Torres Small won. Wow. #nmpol #nm02
Thanks @ProkopDani for the reporting!
@DKElections
Holy smokes. Dem Xochitl Torres Small has taken the lead in #NM02!
posted by chris24 at 6:19 PM on November 7, 2018 [27 favorites]
That's a big flip. It was a Trump +10 district!
538 has an overview of all the uncalled races. ME-2 is not likely to be decided until next week, thanks their use of ranked-choice voting. The Republican incumbent has not ruled out a legal challenge to the voting method if he loses.
I'll also highlight MN-01. The AP has called it for Hagedorn (R), which would make it the second blue to red flip of the election, though Feehan has yet to concede. It's about a 1,300 vote margin right now.
posted by zachlipton at 6:28 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
538 has an overview of all the uncalled races. ME-2 is not likely to be decided until next week, thanks their use of ranked-choice voting. The Republican incumbent has not ruled out a legal challenge to the voting method if he loses.
I'll also highlight MN-01. The AP has called it for Hagedorn (R), which would make it the second blue to red flip of the election, though Feehan has yet to concede. It's about a 1,300 vote margin right now.
posted by zachlipton at 6:28 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Several Oregon counties passed this wtf-gun-rights measure. posted by Thorzdad
Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:30 PM on November 7, 2018
Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:30 PM on November 7, 2018
The Stacey Abrams campaign has launched an aggressive provisional and absentee ballot chase
Seriously they literally just want the votes that people cast to be counted and a significant chunk of these votes are almost certainly for her. if those numbers are right than the amount of ballots still left to be counted is several times larger than the size of the gap that would trigger a runoff. but of course it's aggressive, a chase, her not accepting defeat . . .
posted by robotdevil at 6:31 PM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
Seriously they literally just want the votes that people cast to be counted and a significant chunk of these votes are almost certainly for her. if those numbers are right than the amount of ballots still left to be counted is several times larger than the size of the gap that would trigger a runoff. but of course it's aggressive, a chase, her not accepting defeat . . .
posted by robotdevil at 6:31 PM on November 7, 2018 [17 favorites]
if your parents name you Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III, it's because
1. they expect you to go into the family business, and
2. the family business is racism.
(And right below this one, another tweet:
BREAKING: Jeff Sessions To Be Replaced By A Younger And Hotter Racist!)
posted by growabrain at 6:32 PM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
1. they expect you to go into the family business, and
2. the family business is racism.
(And right below this one, another tweet:
BREAKING: Jeff Sessions To Be Replaced By A Younger And Hotter Racist!)
posted by growabrain at 6:32 PM on November 7, 2018 [21 favorites]
On the "rural America goes racist" issue: not necessarily. I'm very chuffed to learn that Antonio Delgado won in New York's 19th Congressional District
The college towns went for him: Oneonta, Cobleskill, maybe Delhi, New Paltz, Purchase. And the cities besides Oneonta: Kingston, Hudson, Saugerties. Places that hug the river.
Schoharie County? Nope (except for Coby). Greene County? No. Non-Oneonta Otsego County? Haven't checked that, but other than Cooperstown it's very doubtful. I know that area very, very well.
I'm glad he won. But area residents are chalking it up to "the 'citiots.'"
posted by jgirl at 6:43 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
The college towns went for him: Oneonta, Cobleskill, maybe Delhi, New Paltz, Purchase. And the cities besides Oneonta: Kingston, Hudson, Saugerties. Places that hug the river.
Schoharie County? Nope (except for Coby). Greene County? No. Non-Oneonta Otsego County? Haven't checked that, but other than Cooperstown it's very doubtful. I know that area very, very well.
I'm glad he won. But area residents are chalking it up to "the 'citiots.'"
posted by jgirl at 6:43 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
New Mexico surfed the blue wave!
Dems took our entire Congressional delegation and all statewide offices (including the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals), we flipped several seats in the state House, and we got a superrmajority on the County Commission of the stateâs largest county.
posted by maurreen at 6:44 PM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
Dems took our entire Congressional delegation and all statewide offices (including the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals), we flipped several seats in the state House, and we got a superrmajority on the County Commission of the stateâs largest county.
posted by maurreen at 6:44 PM on November 7, 2018 [23 favorites]
but of course it's aggressive, a chase, her not accepting defeat . . .
To be entirely fair, "aggressive provisional ballot chase program" is the exact verbiage used in the press release sent out by Abrams' own campaign.
posted by Maaik at 6:57 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
To be entirely fair, "aggressive provisional ballot chase program" is the exact verbiage used in the press release sent out by Abrams' own campaign.
posted by Maaik at 6:57 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Banana Republicans: This sounds very much like its from the Third World somewhere, can it be true? I mean legally?
The powers they're talking about were granted by the legislature to Scott Walker early in his tenure. They legally gaveth and they can legally taketh away. The Assembly in particular can get very creative legally; they once drafted (but I don't think it got passed) a bill that would repeal itself the next time Wisconsin got a new governor.
These changes have been rumored but I'm surprised Vos said this to the media instead of just keeping it on the down-low until all the legislators were back in town for a special session ostensibly to grant Kimberly-Clark a Foxconn-style deal. I suppose there's no downside to mentioning it now that the elections are over.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:01 PM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
BREAKING: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says he is thinking of taking power away from Gov.-elect Tony Evers even before he is sworn in.
The powers they're talking about were granted by the legislature to Scott Walker early in his tenure. They legally gaveth and they can legally taketh away. The Assembly in particular can get very creative legally; they once drafted (but I don't think it got passed) a bill that would repeal itself the next time Wisconsin got a new governor.
These changes have been rumored but I'm surprised Vos said this to the media instead of just keeping it on the down-low until all the legislators were back in town for a special session ostensibly to grant Kimberly-Clark a Foxconn-style deal. I suppose there's no downside to mentioning it now that the elections are over.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:01 PM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Xochitl Torres Small wins Congressional District 2 race (Las Cruces Sun-News, Published 7:09 p.m. MT Nov. 7, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:03 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
Xochitl Torres Small spoke to her supporters late on Election Day â after it seemed she had lost in her bid to win the 2nd Congressional District â and her message was clear: "Wait."FOOK YAAAS!!!!
"We are waiting until every person's vote is heard," she told a crowd gathered at the Las Cruces Convention Center about 11:15 p.m. Tuesday
Wait they did; for more than 18 hours.
And after thousands of absentee ballots in DoĂąa Ana County were tallied, Torres Small the 33-year-old water lawyer from Las Cruces, has earned a seat in U.S. Congress.
...
DoĂąa Ana County Clerk Amanda LĂłpez Askin told reporters on Wednesday that poll workers had counted nearly half the absentee ballots by the end of Tuesday night, but were exhibiting signs of fatigue, as well as swollen hands. At that point, to ensure accuracy, the remaining ballots were secured for the night so work could resume Wednesday morning.
...
Torres Small was the choice on 6,411 of the 8,250 absentee ballots, while Herrell captured 1,847 of the votes.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:03 PM on November 7, 2018 [35 favorites]
He went too thirsty on the 'centrist' messaging.
I'm sort of at a loss as to what the takeaway from the midterms are. On the one hand, what Beto and several strong liberal candidates nearly pulled off was miraculous. The inroads they made were significant and will probably be lasting. The lesson might be to continue doing what we're doing.
On the other hand, can the base, extremist or centrist, be turned out any more than they were for these midterms? And we didn't manage to convert Republicans in the numbers we needed. If we don't have the numbers, do we need to be doing more to reach Republicans? Is that simply reality? I don't know.
posted by xammerboy at 7:04 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm sort of at a loss as to what the takeaway from the midterms are. On the one hand, what Beto and several strong liberal candidates nearly pulled off was miraculous. The inroads they made were significant and will probably be lasting. The lesson might be to continue doing what we're doing.
On the other hand, can the base, extremist or centrist, be turned out any more than they were for these midterms? And we didn't manage to convert Republicans in the numbers we needed. If we don't have the numbers, do we need to be doing more to reach Republicans? Is that simply reality? I don't know.
posted by xammerboy at 7:04 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think there are different take-aways depending on where you are and who you talk to. There is no silver bullet for the Perfect Democratic Candidate, but rather the perfect candidate for their situation. For example, 'Blue wave' a deeper hue in DoĂąa Ana County (Diana M Alba-Soular, Las Cruces Sun-News Published 5:22 p.m. MT Nov. 7, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Democrat Micaela Cadena, the apparent winner of the District 33 House race, said she knocked on "thousands" of doors while campaigning for the primary election in June and ahead of this week's general election. What she noticed before the primary election was that voters spoke to her about a lot of issues affecting their lives â a desire for an improved education system, less gun violence and an improved behavioral health care system.Emphasis mine. Some places, being a Democrat who is out knocking on doors is enough. Other places, it clearly would have taken more to win as a Democrat.
But just prior to the November election, she said, their sentiments changed from issues to general discontent in response to the national political scene.
"There was much more anger and frustration with what's happening across the country and specifically with President Trump," she said. "I can't even count how many doors I knocked on where voters were excited to say: 'We have to stand against that kind of dangerous rhetoric. We have to show up for ourselves in New Mexico. And we have to stop what's happening in the capital.'"
Cadena said she was often greeted by residents of the district at their doors who'd ask if she was a Democrat. They'd go on to say they typically support candidates based on the skills and abilities of each person, but this year they were simply looking for a way to counter Republicans nationally.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
If you are claiming that Beto lost because he's too centrist and Warren must be purged because she's too centrist and the problem is these people just haven't pushed policies that are progressive enough, and we'd win if they did . . . well, I strongly suggest you remove yourself from the little social media bubble you've locked yourself in, because it has totally warped your view of how people outside it think.
posted by Anonymous at 7:12 PM on November 7, 2018
posted by Anonymous at 7:12 PM on November 7, 2018
Let's just call everyone "Centrist" and let them advocate for whatever they were going to anyway. That way we can get back to policy and stuff...
posted by mikelieman at 7:15 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by mikelieman at 7:15 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm sort of at a loss as to what the takeaway from the midterms are.
Shit's complicated, so we should be careful to avoid oversimplifying with a single narrative.
Stuff that I think is pretty clearly suggested by our observations:
As much as it seems like there are no undecideds, there are actually a surprising number of late-breaking independent voters. It is not a contradiction to say that persuading Republicans might be impossible but there are also lots of people who haven't been voting Democratic out there waiting to be persuaded.
Another takeaway that seems obvious in retrospect: It is already known that Dem policies are really popular even among people whose identity prevents them from considering themselves as or voting for Democrats. Consistent with that, in this election, ballot measures that advance blue causes did really well even in red states. This is a very promising vector that we need to use more in the future, both in terms of policies that are good for their own sake and for engine-building.
Speculation:
In 2016, lots of people underestimated the strength of the GOP. I think this may be due both to GOPers avoiding/lying to pollsters and, among younger members, communicating using channels and spaces that the left doesn't use much or try to exert much influence over. In contrast, this year the left was very publicly working for a blue wave, and part of the historic turnout of this midterm may have been that the right knew that we were all so fired up, so they knew they couldn't sit this one out. I don't know if there's a way we could have communicated that would have avoided activating the right as well.
Finally, my personal hope is that we avoid misallocating money in the future. Certain very vulnerable or long-shot candidates got a ton of money- more than they could use. My hope is that every candidate passes some appreciable fraction of their money to a Literally Every Candidate fund, because your first few dollars make SO much more of a difference than a few dollars after you've already got a few million.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:25 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Shit's complicated, so we should be careful to avoid oversimplifying with a single narrative.
Stuff that I think is pretty clearly suggested by our observations:
As much as it seems like there are no undecideds, there are actually a surprising number of late-breaking independent voters. It is not a contradiction to say that persuading Republicans might be impossible but there are also lots of people who haven't been voting Democratic out there waiting to be persuaded.
Another takeaway that seems obvious in retrospect: It is already known that Dem policies are really popular even among people whose identity prevents them from considering themselves as or voting for Democrats. Consistent with that, in this election, ballot measures that advance blue causes did really well even in red states. This is a very promising vector that we need to use more in the future, both in terms of policies that are good for their own sake and for engine-building.
Speculation:
In 2016, lots of people underestimated the strength of the GOP. I think this may be due both to GOPers avoiding/lying to pollsters and, among younger members, communicating using channels and spaces that the left doesn't use much or try to exert much influence over. In contrast, this year the left was very publicly working for a blue wave, and part of the historic turnout of this midterm may have been that the right knew that we were all so fired up, so they knew they couldn't sit this one out. I don't know if there's a way we could have communicated that would have avoided activating the right as well.
Finally, my personal hope is that we avoid misallocating money in the future. Certain very vulnerable or long-shot candidates got a ton of money- more than they could use. My hope is that every candidate passes some appreciable fraction of their money to a Literally Every Candidate fund, because your first few dollars make SO much more of a difference than a few dollars after you've already got a few million.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:25 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
but of course it's aggressive, a chase, her not accepting defeat . . .
To be entirely fair, "aggressive provisional ballot chase program" is the exact verbiage used in the press release sent out by Abrams' own campaign.
Yep."Ballot chase" is the name for the campaign activity where you rush around to contact voters who vote by mail and "chase" their ballots. Campaigns do it before election day, making lists of supporters who will vote by mail and sending canvassers to see that their ballots get returned (some campaigns will ask to collect ballots for delivery where that's legal). After a close election like this, it means racing to contact supporters whose ballots weren't counted (unsigned, signature mismatch, provisional ballots, etc...) and getting them to complete the necessary steps to have their votes counted. As in, if you forgot to sign your ballot envelope, somebody's going to be ringing your doorbell with an affidavit form until you sign it. It's a huge effort that has to be done very quickly before the deadline.
posted by zachlipton at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
To be entirely fair, "aggressive provisional ballot chase program" is the exact verbiage used in the press release sent out by Abrams' own campaign.
Yep."Ballot chase" is the name for the campaign activity where you rush around to contact voters who vote by mail and "chase" their ballots. Campaigns do it before election day, making lists of supporters who will vote by mail and sending canvassers to see that their ballots get returned (some campaigns will ask to collect ballots for delivery where that's legal). After a close election like this, it means racing to contact supporters whose ballots weren't counted (unsigned, signature mismatch, provisional ballots, etc...) and getting them to complete the necessary steps to have their votes counted. As in, if you forgot to sign your ballot envelope, somebody's going to be ringing your doorbell with an affidavit form until you sign it. It's a huge effort that has to be done very quickly before the deadline.
posted by zachlipton at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
The thing the most successful candidates seem to have in common is not how progressive they are but passionate and honest they are about their beliefs. They don't speak in carefully crafted messages designed to stake out a specific position on a political spectrum. What they believe isn't the result of careful consideration by their team, it's just what they believe and they conveyed that they believed it passionately.
All too often we have to dissect what a politician really thinks when they speak. Like, we were all pretty sure that Obama, the person and not the politician, fully supported same-sex marriage but understood why he might be hesitant to say so out loud. Nonetheless I was so relieved after Biden made his "gaff" and then Obama, the politician, finally said out loud that he supported same-sex marriage. Beto and AOC aren't shy about what they really believe, the person and the politician are one in the same and they don't have differing policy positions.
posted by VTX at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
All too often we have to dissect what a politician really thinks when they speak. Like, we were all pretty sure that Obama, the person and not the politician, fully supported same-sex marriage but understood why he might be hesitant to say so out loud. Nonetheless I was so relieved after Biden made his "gaff" and then Obama, the politician, finally said out loud that he supported same-sex marriage. Beto and AOC aren't shy about what they really believe, the person and the politician are one in the same and they don't have differing policy positions.
posted by VTX at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2018 [31 favorites]
I haven't seen an AP call yet, but local news is calling Schrier [D] the winner in WA-08.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:41 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:41 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
Florida updates - With votes still being counted:
- Nelson about 6k (0.07%) away from getting a hand recount. That kicks in at 0.25% apart.
- Gillum about 0.07% away from getting a machine recount. That's at 0.5%.
- Ag commissioner looks sure to get a hand recount, too. Currently separated by 0.1%.
- Broward (big and blue) has a lot of votes outstanding, but can't tell us how many. [eyes gif]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:55 PM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
- Nelson about 6k (0.07%) away from getting a hand recount. That kicks in at 0.25% apart.
- Gillum about 0.07% away from getting a machine recount. That's at 0.5%.
- Ag commissioner looks sure to get a hand recount, too. Currently separated by 0.1%.
- Broward (big and blue) has a lot of votes outstanding, but can't tell us how many. [eyes gif]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:55 PM on November 7, 2018 [19 favorites]
AZ Sen update: Some ~650k votes outstanding, from various counties. State will update daily at 5 pm local time. Sinema [D] currently down 0.9%; past late counts have changed the margin more than that, so she may still be on her way, we can't say just yet.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:00 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:00 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I haven't seen an AP call yet, but local news is calling Schrier [D] the winner in WA-08.
Dino Rossi just conceded.
posted by chris24 at 8:01 PM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Dino Rossi just conceded.
posted by chris24 at 8:01 PM on November 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
538 currently projects a 37 seat pickup when all is said and done. Not too shabby! Every extra seat we pick up here is useful for allowing moderates to sit out tough votes and for avoiding internecine struggle. Plus it'll be easier to defend in a normal non-wave cycle.
posted by Justinian at 8:08 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 8:08 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
Several Oregon counties passed this wtf-gun-rights measure. posted by Thorzdad
Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
If you find it surprising that counties like Union, Baker, or Douglas would pass something like this, I have news for you about Oregon.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
If you find it surprising that counties like Union, Baker, or Douglas would pass something like this, I have news for you about Oregon.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:09 PM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
New Jersey goes from 7/5 Dem to 11/1 Dem, wow. That's the fewest R's NJ has had since 1915.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:16 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:16 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
New Jersey goes from 7/5 Dem to 11/1 Dem, wow. That's the fewest R's NJ has had since 1915.
Guess the Bob "hung jury isn't proof of guilt" Menendez anti-coattail theory was a bad hot take.
posted by Justinian at 8:31 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Guess the Bob "hung jury isn't proof of guilt" Menendez anti-coattail theory was a bad hot take.
posted by Justinian at 8:31 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Inspiring: Rachel Maddow interviews Lauren Underwood, 32 year old black newly elected Congresswoman from Illinois
posted by growabrain at 8:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 8:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [15 favorites]
From what I can tell, 538 expect Sinema to win in AZ? Wow.
posted by Justinian at 8:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 8:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I hope Dino Rossi keeps his chin up and decides to continue losing elections
Lost governor's race to Christine Gregoire in 2004.
Lost governor's race to Christine Gregoire in 2008.
Lost senate race to Maria Cantwell in 2010.
Lost house race to Kim Schier in 2018.
Maybe he needs to go down a class and try running against a man.
posted by JackFlash at 8:42 PM on November 7, 2018 [30 favorites]
Lost governor's race to Christine Gregoire in 2004.
Lost governor's race to Christine Gregoire in 2008.
Lost senate race to Maria Cantwell in 2010.
Lost house race to Kim Schier in 2018.
Maybe he needs to go down a class and try running against a man.
posted by JackFlash at 8:42 PM on November 7, 2018 [30 favorites]
Guess the Bob "hung jury isn't proof of guilt" Menendez anti-coattail theory was a bad hot take.
Oh, I think it was accurate. A lot of these races - like Van Drew's - were much closer than expected. It's just that anti-Trump sentiment was enough to overcome that. We dodged a bullet there.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:54 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Oh, I think it was accurate. A lot of these races - like Van Drew's - were much closer than expected. It's just that anti-Trump sentiment was enough to overcome that. We dodged a bullet there.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:54 PM on November 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
The thing the most successful candidates seem to have in common is not how progressive they are but passionate and honest they are about their beliefs. They don't speak in carefully crafted messages designed to stake out a specific position on a political spectrum. What they believe isn't the result of careful consideration by their team, it's just what they believe and they conveyed that they believed it passionately.
Something along these lines stuck with me from the Intercept article on Scholten a while back:
posted by jason_steakums at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2018 [54 favorites]
Something along these lines stuck with me from the Intercept article on Scholten a while back:
âI got introduced to a guy at the Sioux County fair,â he explains as he drives down a rural road in his Winnebago. âThe guy was obviously not a Democrat. He started talking about Trump and went straight into his hole. He said the worst things you can say about a human being about Hillary Clinton, started using slurs. I lost it on him. I might have cursed a few times. I said, âListen, you may never vote for me, thatâs fine. But Iâm going to beat Steve King. And when I do, Iâm going to come back to the Sioux County fair, and Iâll look you straight in the eye when I talk about issues and what I voted on. Can you say that about your representative now? No.âLike, that unapologetic genuine stance is going to be a very important part of rebuilding in red states going forward.
Scholten made a left into Estherville. âWhen I got done, he was thrown back a bit. And then he said, âIâll have to check out your website.ââ
posted by jason_steakums at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2018 [54 favorites]
Several Oregon counties passed this wtf-gun-rights measure. posted by Thorzdad
Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
For what it's worth, that measure was on the ballot in just 10 out of Oregon's 36 counties. It passed in 8 of them, but they're among the most sparsely populated & conservative.
(We still do have two progressive senators, and a newly reelected Democrat governor, and 4 out of 5 D congresspeople, if that helps?)
posted by lisa g at 8:56 PM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
For what it's worth, that measure was on the ballot in just 10 out of Oregon's 36 counties. It passed in 8 of them, but they're among the most sparsely populated & conservative.
(We still do have two progressive senators, and a newly reelected Democrat governor, and 4 out of 5 D congresspeople, if that helps?)
posted by lisa g at 8:56 PM on November 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
From what I can tell, 538 expect Sinema to win in AZ? Wow.
Republicans are already going to court to try to stop it: With Arizona Senate seat at stake, Republicans sue county recorders
posted by zachlipton at 8:58 PM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Republicans are already going to court to try to stop it: With Arizona Senate seat at stake, Republicans sue county recorders
If there is a mismatch between the signature on file and the signature on an early ballot dropped off on Election Day, some county recorders â including Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes â believe they can contact those voters after Election Day. In phone calls, they allow voters to verify that they did, in fact, sign the green envelope of the ballot, as required by law.A uniform deadline statewide is not unreasonable, but a deadline before election day flatly is.
The lawsuit alleges that state law only allows this practice prior to Election Day, not after. It asserts the process is unfair to voters residing in other counties where that process is only allowed before Election Day.
The lawsuit asks the court to require all of the counties to implement uniform deadlines for ballot rehabilitation.
posted by zachlipton at 8:58 PM on November 7, 2018 [10 favorites]
Thanks for that link.
Given that the AZ seat is the difference between "ugh... coulda been worse under the circumstances" (-2 seats, decent chance for senate in 2020) and "well fuck" (-4 seats, there's always 2022) I'm surprised we're not hearing more about this. I hope the Democrats are mobilizing for Sinema legally.
posted by Justinian at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Given that the AZ seat is the difference between "ugh... coulda been worse under the circumstances" (-2 seats, decent chance for senate in 2020) and "well fuck" (-4 seats, there's always 2022) I'm surprised we're not hearing more about this. I hope the Democrats are mobilizing for Sinema legally.
posted by Justinian at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
A uniform deadline statewide is not unreasonable
What's uniform about having a county clerk say they don't like the looks of your signature and tossing it in the reject pile.
posted by JackFlash at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
What's uniform about having a county clerk say they don't like the looks of your signature and tossing it in the reject pile.
posted by JackFlash at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2018 [18 favorites]
It asserts the process is unfair to voters residing in other counties where that process is only allowed before Election Day.
Sinema's team should counter by arguing for allowing the process in all counties.
posted by Justinian at 9:14 PM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
Sinema's team should counter by arguing for allowing the process in all counties.
posted by Justinian at 9:14 PM on November 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
If you are claiming that Beto lost because he's too centrist and Warren must be purged because she's too centrist
No. I didn't intend to claim that at all. I think I just wrote a really unclear post. I'd clarify, but I don't want to muddy the waters further.
Btw, if anyone reading this thread doesn't know, there are protests planned tomorrow in regards to Trump's firing of Jess Sessions, which could undermine the Mueller investigation. Details are in the catchall thread.
posted by xammerboy at 9:20 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
No. I didn't intend to claim that at all. I think I just wrote a really unclear post. I'd clarify, but I don't want to muddy the waters further.
Btw, if anyone reading this thread doesn't know, there are protests planned tomorrow in regards to Trump's firing of Jess Sessions, which could undermine the Mueller investigation. Details are in the catchall thread.
posted by xammerboy at 9:20 PM on November 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
My takeaway from this election is that humanity is basically like this:
posted by smcameron at 9:36 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
| *** | ********* | ************** | ******************* | *********************** | ************************** | ***************************** | ********************************* | ***************************************** +--------------------------------------------------- piece mostly OK Awesome of shit shitty HumanWith the understanding that "OK" is not really very good.
posted by smcameron at 9:36 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
From what I'm hearing in FL, Dems will be chasing down rejected/provisional ballots tomorrow. The margins are razor thin in several races, and recounts are likely for Gillum, Nelson, & Fried.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 10:13 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Kitty Stardust at 10:13 PM on November 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Two notches of shitty with a "bad OK" makes that graph likely logarithmic on the x-axis.
posted by rhizome at 10:31 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by rhizome at 10:31 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I'm also stoked about Rohrabacher. What an embarrassment; he'll make more on the outside.
posted by rhizome at 10:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by rhizome at 10:39 PM on November 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
As for "OK" on that graph being not so great, I guess my feeling is that it should have been like 90% democratic vote and 10% republican, since, to me, the republicans are at this point essentially either evil or stupid, possibly both. That's it's basically a 50 / 50 split.... man, that is super disheartening. Basically 1 in every 2 people that I see are total pieces of shit. So, if anything, that graph is an optimistic view of my state of mind regarding my view of humanity. I would urge democrats to buy guns in preparation for the possibly coming involuntary and literal bloodbath.
posted by smcameron at 10:40 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by smcameron at 10:40 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
The Ghost Of Dennis Hof Haunts The Nevada Midterms (cw: sexual assault, overdose) Hof, brothel owner of Pahrump, NV, died before being elected to the State Assembly
For a party that claims to disbelieve climate science, the Nevada G.O.P. freely gathers its posse by ringing the alarm of environmental collapse and apocalypse in the parched West. This is because the voters of Nevada fret about the Trump Administration twice proposing funding to reopen Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository, in Nye County, and live under the daily existential threat of the Colorado Riverâs over-allotment. But Nevadaâs Republicans and Libertarians would rather that voters look to the past rather than the future. Throwbacks to the good old days of consequence-free killing and consumption are not what the right does instead of responding to climate changeâcowboy barbarism is the response. The G.O.P. is positioning itself and its backers to get rich off the disasters that will destroy this place for the rest of us. Hofâs billboards read âIâll Fight for Your Water.â The slogan is tellingly ambiguous. It could mean âIâll fight for your water for you.â Or it could mean âIâll fight for your water and keep it.âposted by the man of twists and turns at 11:03 PM on November 7, 2018 [12 favorites]
...
Part of Dennis Hofâs appeal was that he wore this costume convincingly, but his cowboy dress-up routine was often paired with a telling obsession with authenticity. Another of Hofâs mailers reads âFix Rural Real Nevada.â Being a fake cowboy becomes the only way to be a real Nevadan. In Hofâs mold, a real Nevadan is a white, rural, rich man. Everyone else exists in a service capacity, if at all. Women, immigrants, the indigenous, the land itselfâall are there for his pleasure, there for the taking. Hofâs is the logic by which the West becomes âWestworld.â From beneath the brim of a white Stetson, the supposedly rugged individual doles out paternalism and misogyny to the women who do the demeaning, poor-paying jobs that run the Nevada economy: the maids, the change girls, the cocktail waitresses, and, as theyâre known locally, the whores.
Regarding Beto and his potential political future: Lincoln didn't win against Douglas. Beto has time. Whether the US as a republic has time is another question. I hoped but I knew it was a long shot but man, he did so much good. I wonder if Cruz will actually hunker down and actually work for ALL of Texas. It is inspiring to see people working hard for Beto and the rest of the Democratic tickets. 2020 folks, do not veer. Stay Strong.
posted by jadepearl at 11:12 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 11:12 PM on November 7, 2018 [13 favorites]
From what I'm hearing in FL, Dems will be chasing down rejected/provisional ballots tomorrow. The margins are razor thin in several races, and recounts are likely for Gillum, Nelson, & Fried.
This is a natural result of voter suppression campaigns. Lots of voters are told they're not valid. Hopefully -- and we need to hammer this message home -- they demand provisional ballots, which of course come in late and disproportionately Democratic.
Until we (ever) beat back this unholy voter suppression strategy, we -- and news media -- need to understand that late shifts will usually go Democratic, in a big way, and hold back their declarations and predictions accordingly.
posted by msalt at 11:34 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
This is a natural result of voter suppression campaigns. Lots of voters are told they're not valid. Hopefully -- and we need to hammer this message home -- they demand provisional ballots, which of course come in late and disproportionately Democratic.
Until we (ever) beat back this unholy voter suppression strategy, we -- and news media -- need to understand that late shifts will usually go Democratic, in a big way, and hold back their declarations and predictions accordingly.
posted by msalt at 11:34 PM on November 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
>>Well, poop, that's OR off my list of places to retire.
>If you find it surprising that counties like Union, Baker, or Douglas would pass something like this, I have news for you about Oregon.
Yeah, I would strongly recommend against anyone retiring or moving to Oregon without doing their homework. The short story is, unless you're comfortable in a very right-wing community, don't move anywhere except the Willamette Valley (Portland to Eugene), wine country,Ashland, Bend, Hood River or the coast.
posted by msalt at 11:38 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
>If you find it surprising that counties like Union, Baker, or Douglas would pass something like this, I have news for you about Oregon.
Yeah, I would strongly recommend against anyone retiring or moving to Oregon without doing their homework. The short story is, unless you're comfortable in a very right-wing community, don't move anywhere except the Willamette Valley (Portland to Eugene), wine country,Ashland, Bend, Hood River or the coast.
posted by msalt at 11:38 PM on November 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
'I Want Democracy as Much as I Want to Breathe.' Down in Kansas, Sharice Davids reminds us that democracy is nothing but having your voice heard.
posted by homunculus at 12:20 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by homunculus at 12:20 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
> had to google who McBath was recently because I was curious of who was running against Handel this time; so little had been written about her or this race, at the national level at least, and it seemed pundits wrote her off after Handel won the special election despite all the attention and money that went into Ossoffâs campaign. I didn't see the race included in many "D pickoff opportunities" listicles even as it tightened in the last weeks. Her story of why she ran (gun safety/control platform; she lost a son to gun violence) is particularly inspiring, but apparently her victory needs to be properly defended because Kemp and his cronies are undeserving of any kind of trust in a recount.
There's more on McBath in this piece by Charlie Pierce: The Pussy-Hat Jokes Aren't So Funny Now, Are They? Women rise up to rebuke Donald Trump, while Scott Walker gets shit-canned in Wisconsin.
posted by homunculus at 12:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
There's more on McBath in this piece by Charlie Pierce: The Pussy-Hat Jokes Aren't So Funny Now, Are They? Women rise up to rebuke Donald Trump, while Scott Walker gets shit-canned in Wisconsin.
posted by homunculus at 12:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
I found this long piece by Megan Messerly about Jacky Rosen in the Nevada Independent really interesting.
tl;dr she was the president of her synagogue when Harry Reid sought her out to run for Congress in 2016, before that sheâd been a computer programmer.
posted by Kattullus at 1:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
tl;dr she was the president of her synagogue when Harry Reid sought her out to run for Congress in 2016, before that sheâd been a computer programmer.
posted by Kattullus at 1:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Daniel Nichanian, who tweets as Taniel, had a good overview on Twitter of important but overlooked elections.
posted by Kattullus at 2:16 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:16 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
I'm glad he won. But area residents are chalking it up to "the 'citiots.'
Ha, nice to know I've got a nickname. Jgirl, do you have a link to that info? I'd love to see how the voting broke down in my upstate area (Swan Lake, Sullivan County). I know that there are quite a few NYC transplants around me trying to make a go of locavore or organic farming, and a bunch of second homers like myself, but they're a fraction of the numbers of long residing locals.
Liberty seems to have a decent number of Mexican transplants based on the two Mexican groceries and three little Mexican restaurants on the main strip, and the local Shoprite always has a decent selection of Mexican origin baked goods in the bakery section, so I"m thinking the Mexican population there might be numerous and have some impact.
I divide my time pretty evenly between my place in Brooklyn and my place upstate and decided to make the upstate place my primary residence and vote there, where my vote has more impact. Towards the end of the summer I began seeing more Delgado signs than Faso signs, I mean a lot more (not even counting the homemade "fire Faso" signs that seemed to be sprinkled everywhere since last summer)..I wouldn't say twice as many, but I would guess near that...and they weren't on what I would call obvious "citiot" properties, either. It was very heartening and surprising and I didn't want to bring it up in the thread because of jinxing (TTTCS didn't seem to work out too well for us in 2016).
I'm thrilled beyond that Delgado made it but I'm also already afraid of the backlash and scapegoating that's inevitably coming his way as soon as the economy tanks or any other not great thing happens.
I'm entirely over the moon that the state senate and assembly are now Dem, and hopefully this means some forward momentum on the healthcare for all bill that the assembly has been pushing for the last five or so years, only for it to die a quick death in the senate.
posted by newpotato at 2:45 AM on November 8, 2018
Ha, nice to know I've got a nickname. Jgirl, do you have a link to that info? I'd love to see how the voting broke down in my upstate area (Swan Lake, Sullivan County). I know that there are quite a few NYC transplants around me trying to make a go of locavore or organic farming, and a bunch of second homers like myself, but they're a fraction of the numbers of long residing locals.
Liberty seems to have a decent number of Mexican transplants based on the two Mexican groceries and three little Mexican restaurants on the main strip, and the local Shoprite always has a decent selection of Mexican origin baked goods in the bakery section, so I"m thinking the Mexican population there might be numerous and have some impact.
I divide my time pretty evenly between my place in Brooklyn and my place upstate and decided to make the upstate place my primary residence and vote there, where my vote has more impact. Towards the end of the summer I began seeing more Delgado signs than Faso signs, I mean a lot more (not even counting the homemade "fire Faso" signs that seemed to be sprinkled everywhere since last summer)..I wouldn't say twice as many, but I would guess near that...and they weren't on what I would call obvious "citiot" properties, either. It was very heartening and surprising and I didn't want to bring it up in the thread because of jinxing (TTTCS didn't seem to work out too well for us in 2016).
I'm thrilled beyond that Delgado made it but I'm also already afraid of the backlash and scapegoating that's inevitably coming his way as soon as the economy tanks or any other not great thing happens.
I'm entirely over the moon that the state senate and assembly are now Dem, and hopefully this means some forward momentum on the healthcare for all bill that the assembly has been pushing for the last five or so years, only for it to die a quick death in the senate.
posted by newpotato at 2:45 AM on November 8, 2018
Postal worker in Florida taking about boxes of mail-in ballots still sitting on the floor (twitter)
posted by robotdevil at 2:53 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by robotdevil at 2:53 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
In voting method news, Lane County, OR will NOT adopt STAR voting, but Fargo, ND will adopt approval voting.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 3:26 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 3:26 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
To be filed under "I need to wallow in the bright side of things today" category:
My (affluent, blue) town in Greater Boston posted their tabulated results today and we had 75% voter turnout. We were electing a new D congresswoman (yay Lori Trahan!) but still, I like those numbers a hell of a lot. And YES on 3 got the biggest share of the vote at 80%.
posted by lydhre at 4:58 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
My (affluent, blue) town in Greater Boston posted their tabulated results today and we had 75% voter turnout. We were electing a new D congresswoman (yay Lori Trahan!) but still, I like those numbers a hell of a lot. And YES on 3 got the biggest share of the vote at 80%.
posted by lydhre at 4:58 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
This needs to be the focus. Everyone should be able to vote.
I am sick of arguing over the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin vis-a-vis miniscule differences in leftist policy when the GOP is stealing elections and disenfranchising voters and openly ramping up their efforts while laughing all the way to the legislature and the judiciary and the Presidency. Like I said earlier, Dems won the national popular vote by OVER SEVEN POINTS. That's a landslide, a landslide that is in no way reflected in the House or the state legislatures. Abrams and Gillum and likely Beto and who knows how many other Democratic politicians had the election stolen from right underneath them and we're all blaming the Democrats? Are you kidding me? We're just giving up and blaming ourselves for not being good enough when we have a goddamn seven point lead. We should be united under this issue and screaming in the streets and banging our drums. And it's not like this is a 2018 thing, this is a system-wide, chronic problem. When are we going to wake up and turn the circular firing squad to target the policies and politicians that deserve it?
Yes, the details get complicated and there are a lot of laws built up to create this massive system. It is designed to make your eyes glaze over so you'd focus on big sexy policy issues and Trump's tweets and likeability and rock star politicians and whatever the 24/7 cycle is feeding us and ignore that you're being murdered by hundreds of thousands of paper cuts.
posted by Anonymous at 5:13 AM on November 8, 2018
I am sick of arguing over the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin vis-a-vis miniscule differences in leftist policy when the GOP is stealing elections and disenfranchising voters and openly ramping up their efforts while laughing all the way to the legislature and the judiciary and the Presidency. Like I said earlier, Dems won the national popular vote by OVER SEVEN POINTS. That's a landslide, a landslide that is in no way reflected in the House or the state legislatures. Abrams and Gillum and likely Beto and who knows how many other Democratic politicians had the election stolen from right underneath them and we're all blaming the Democrats? Are you kidding me? We're just giving up and blaming ourselves for not being good enough when we have a goddamn seven point lead. We should be united under this issue and screaming in the streets and banging our drums. And it's not like this is a 2018 thing, this is a system-wide, chronic problem. When are we going to wake up and turn the circular firing squad to target the policies and politicians that deserve it?
Yes, the details get complicated and there are a lot of laws built up to create this massive system. It is designed to make your eyes glaze over so you'd focus on big sexy policy issues and Trump's tweets and likeability and rock star politicians and whatever the 24/7 cycle is feeding us and ignore that you're being murdered by hundreds of thousands of paper cuts.
posted by Anonymous at 5:13 AM on November 8, 2018
Nice, lydhre! My town (also affluent and blue in Greater Boston) ran about the same.
Also, the body politic rose up and reaffirmed our right to buy reefer over the counter.
posted by Sublimity at 5:16 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Also, the body politic rose up and reaffirmed our right to buy reefer over the counter.
posted by Sublimity at 5:16 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm super pleased that Tea Party Republican Dave Brat lost in Virginia's 7th district. I particularly remember Brat because he complained "the women are in my grill no matter where I go" during the fight against the ACA repeal. This August NYT piece goes into how the November 2016 election prompted Kim Drew Wright to start a private Facebook group called The Liberal Women of Chesterfield County that spurred Democratic organizing and turnout in the district. Thank you, Kim Drew Wright!
posted by brainwane at 5:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by brainwane at 5:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
Handel (R) has conceded to McBath (D) in GA06.
posted by chris24 at 5:33 AM on November 8, 2018 [40 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 5:33 AM on November 8, 2018 [40 favorites]
"This needs to be the focus. Everyone should be able to vote."
I don't think there's anything more important. But this is why I'm encouraged by this election.
Here in deep red Missouri, an anti-gerrymandering amendment passed. So did similar amendments in Colorado and Michigan, and possibly a proposition in Utah. That's now 12 states with independent redistricting commissions.
Florida, of all places, enfranchised felons (who've served their sentences).
Michigan approved automatic voter registration and same-day registration. Maryland expanded same-day registration through election day, making a total of 19 states with same-day registration. (Granted, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Arkansas made it more difficult to vote. But there's now some push-back against this stuff.)
Also, quite important are the state legislatures that flipped, the governorships that flipped, and the 300 or so flipped state legislative seats. This will make a difference going forward with regard to both preventing new attempts at voting restriction as well as in the upcoming redistricting.
I really believe that local and state government is, in the long-run, the key to the real change we want. I highly recommend an episode from a week ago of Josh Marshall's Podcast where he interviews former New York state Sen. Daniel Squadron who's behind Future Now, which helps fund and organize Democratic state legislative races. While this seems like a very wonky and likely boring topic, I was caught by surprise at how much I enjoyed this interview and, importantly, felt extremely fired up while and after listening to it. It's super-interesting.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 5:51 AM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
I don't think there's anything more important. But this is why I'm encouraged by this election.
Here in deep red Missouri, an anti-gerrymandering amendment passed. So did similar amendments in Colorado and Michigan, and possibly a proposition in Utah. That's now 12 states with independent redistricting commissions.
Florida, of all places, enfranchised felons (who've served their sentences).
Michigan approved automatic voter registration and same-day registration. Maryland expanded same-day registration through election day, making a total of 19 states with same-day registration. (Granted, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Arkansas made it more difficult to vote. But there's now some push-back against this stuff.)
Also, quite important are the state legislatures that flipped, the governorships that flipped, and the 300 or so flipped state legislative seats. This will make a difference going forward with regard to both preventing new attempts at voting restriction as well as in the upcoming redistricting.
I really believe that local and state government is, in the long-run, the key to the real change we want. I highly recommend an episode from a week ago of Josh Marshall's Podcast where he interviews former New York state Sen. Daniel Squadron who's behind Future Now, which helps fund and organize Democratic state legislative races. While this seems like a very wonky and likely boring topic, I was caught by surprise at how much I enjoyed this interview and, importantly, felt extremely fired up while and after listening to it. It's super-interesting.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 5:51 AM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
From what I'm hearing in FL, Dems will be chasing down rejected/provisional ballots tomorrow. The margins are razor thin in several races, and recounts are likely for Gillum, Nelson, & Fried.
There should be a lot of provisionals out there since not having a photo ID in the state means you cast a provisional and it gets counted if they think there is a signature match or the voter provides ID by close of business today. (IIRC, I just live here and vote without ID)
posted by wierdo at 5:54 AM on November 8, 2018
There should be a lot of provisionals out there since not having a photo ID in the state means you cast a provisional and it gets counted if they think there is a signature match or the voter provides ID by close of business today. (IIRC, I just live here and vote without ID)
posted by wierdo at 5:54 AM on November 8, 2018
I told my spouse about Connecticut electing Ned Lamont for governor and he responded, "The netroots have long memories." Throwback Thursday: the Ned Lamont for Senate ad that broke the rules of causality and inspired this remix that did make me laugh aloud.
If California results from this election take as long to count as results from close races in recent California elections, we might have to wait 3 weeks or so to get accurate enough tallies on Rohrabacher and other close House races to call them. They haven't yet even received some of the ballots that need counting -- some were postmarked by Election Day and are still on their way to make it in by Friday.
posted by brainwane at 6:07 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
If California results from this election take as long to count as results from close races in recent California elections, we might have to wait 3 weeks or so to get accurate enough tallies on Rohrabacher and other close House races to call them. They haven't yet even received some of the ballots that need counting -- some were postmarked by Election Day and are still on their way to make it in by Friday.
Early voters, often older white Californians who start mailing in their ballots weeks before election day, lean Republican, and later voters, many of them young and minority, tend to prefer Democrats.As vote-by-mail increases in popularity in various states, I need to get used to not knowing the result of an election as fast as I'd like!
With extremely rare exceptions, close races in California shift in Democratsâ favor â typically by 2 percentage pointsâ as the later ballots are counted, according to Political Data, a firm that tracks voter trends.
...
Statewide, 7.3 million ballots were counted on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but counties are expected to report as many as 4 million more in the days ahead.
posted by brainwane at 6:07 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Gaslit Nation is out with an excellent post-Midterms special episode, discussing: Osoff and McBath, the empowerment of canvassing, the importance of focussing on state governments to build the future, the political alternate reality in fly-over states, plus Kobach, ballot-initiatives, voter-suppression, climate refugees, Muellers' prospects, the blue wave as a lifestyle for at least a generation - and so much more, juxtaposing the view from the blue trifecta of NY with that of the deep, troubling red of Missouri.
posted by progosk at 6:10 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by progosk at 6:10 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Gerrymandering sounds much too neutral. In French, this activity is properly called "charcutage ĂŠlectoral", which can be roughly translated as "vote butchering" (charcutage describes the act of cutting meat badly, in a careless fashion). Feel free to replace the faces of President Chirac and Interior minister Pasqua on this famous poster from 1986 ("vote butchering, butchering of freedoms") that accused both men of redistricting the French electoral map in favour of their right-wing party.
posted by elgilito at 6:29 AM on November 8, 2018 [20 favorites]
posted by elgilito at 6:29 AM on November 8, 2018 [20 favorites]
Postal worker in Florida taking about boxes of mail-in ballots still sitting on the floor
Not seeing any follow up on this in "the media".
Which, given the many positive things to come out of an Authentic American Exercise in Democracy, they seem to mostly be ignoring. HMMMMMMM.
posted by petebest at 6:30 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Not seeing any follow up on this in "the media".
Which, given the many positive things to come out of an Authentic American Exercise in Democracy, they seem to mostly be ignoring. HMMMMMMM.
posted by petebest at 6:30 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
At the end of the twitter thread, they say that the ballots did later go to where they were supposed to.
posted by tofu_crouton at 6:36 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by tofu_crouton at 6:36 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Early numbers suggest voter turnout soared in the 2018 midterms - Emily Stewart, Vox
posted by ZeusHumms at 6:53 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Interest in this election was abnormally high for a non-presidential year, which many attributed to energy among Democrats and fired-up bases on the left and right in reaction to President Donald Trump. And that appears to have translated to voter turnout: The New York Times is currently estimating that some 114 million ballots were cast this year, well above the 83 million votes cast in 2014 and 91 million ballots cast in 2010. That doesnât quite rival a presidential year â in 2016, for example, about 138 million people voted â but itâs a pretty big deal.Final numbers will probably come when all absentee & mail in ballots get counted.
posted by ZeusHumms at 6:53 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
If anyone tries to argue that the Congressional composition reflects the will of the people, let them know Democrats received over 12 million more votes than Republicans and still lost Senate seats.
Social sciences suggest one of the key tenets of authority is that it needs to be perceived as legitimate. Notaxation legislation without representation.
posted by Arson Lupine at 7:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
Social sciences suggest one of the key tenets of authority is that it needs to be perceived as legitimate. No
posted by Arson Lupine at 7:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
jason_steakums: Like, that unapologetic genuine stance is going to be a very important part of rebuilding in red states going forward.
Emotional plays like this work better to change minds than policy and platform discussions, because it's very hard, even unlikely, to change someone's mind with rational thought and logic. "Appealing to their emotions may work better, but doing so is obviously antithetical to the goal of promoting sound science." (Why Facts Donât Change Our Minds -- New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason. By Elizabeth Kolbert for the New Yorker, from the February 27, 2017 Issue) [I've reposted this article a number of times, but I think it bears repeating.]
posted by filthy light thief at 7:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Emotional plays like this work better to change minds than policy and platform discussions, because it's very hard, even unlikely, to change someone's mind with rational thought and logic. "Appealing to their emotions may work better, but doing so is obviously antithetical to the goal of promoting sound science." (Why Facts Donât Change Our Minds -- New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason. By Elizabeth Kolbert for the New Yorker, from the February 27, 2017 Issue) [I've reposted this article a number of times, but I think it bears repeating.]
posted by filthy light thief at 7:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Five takeaways from Tuesday's voting:
Where democracy equals election, the Democrats had a tidal wave. (Most of the House of Representatives races)
Where democracy is less reflective of the whole of the people, Democracy is hobbled. (Senate races)
Voter suppression and gerrymandering work: Georgia, Florida, Texas.
If voter suppression and gerrymandering weren't in place, the Democrats, the tidal wave would have spread all over.
The Republicans spent a shitload of rich-folk money to eke out several of the races.
Voter suppression is the biggest of these issues and like in 2016, it is in danger of being shrugged off.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:19 AM on November 8, 2018 [34 favorites]
Where democracy equals election, the Democrats had a tidal wave. (Most of the House of Representatives races)
Where democracy is less reflective of the whole of the people, Democracy is hobbled. (Senate races)
Voter suppression and gerrymandering work: Georgia, Florida, Texas.
If voter suppression and gerrymandering weren't in place, the Democrats, the tidal wave would have spread all over.
The Republicans spent a shitload of rich-folk money to eke out several of the races.
Voter suppression is the biggest of these issues and like in 2016, it is in danger of being shrugged off.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:19 AM on November 8, 2018 [34 favorites]
What? The Democrats won the Senate races something like 23-12 or 24-11. Itâs just that they had already held those seats 26-9.
The Democrats did very well in the Senate. They just didnât run up the score as well as last time.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
The Democrats did very well in the Senate. They just didnât run up the score as well as last time.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
The Senate in general gives disproportionate representation to less-populous (i.e. Midwestern and redder) states because every state gets two Senators regardless of population. That's the case irrespective of the election results.
posted by Anonymous at 7:49 AM on November 8, 2018
posted by Anonymous at 7:49 AM on November 8, 2018
GA Repub Candidate Kemp claims victory, resigns from his SOS job. Meanwhile, Abrams declines to concede. I'm so hoping the recount combined with all the suppression shit he pulled makes her the winner, and then he'll have NO job.
posted by yoga at 7:54 AM on November 8, 2018 [36 favorites]
posted by yoga at 7:54 AM on November 8, 2018 [36 favorites]
To me the elections seem like weight lifting, especially once a person has been at it a while and progress is more difficult.
You get in the gym and work you ass off. Those weights are HEAVY and you have work HARD to get through all your exercises. Outside the gym you're careful to do all the other things you need to do to facilitate gains (eat enough, get enough sleep, etc.). And if you've done everything correctly you might be able to add another measly 5Lbs worth of weight on all of your exercises on the next cycle when you start it all over again.
It doesn't seem fair that you worked that hard to only add 5 more pounds and an injury or sickness or life may get in the way one cycle and you have to take a couple of steps backwards. But, slowly, overtime, you build strength.
The nice thing about being progressives is that whereas it always gets harder to lift more weight, if we keep working and keep voting, progress starts to get easier eventually.
There are a lot of things that need to be fixed and in order to fix them, we need progressive in power. As we keep voting and working and having success progressives gain more power. I think the key is more people voting. Work to roll back all the voter suppression and pass new laws to make it easier to vote. That makes it easier to vote more progressive into power which allows for the more complicated stuff (anti-gerrymandering, number of house seats, overrepresentation in the Senate, etc.). And all of these things are self-reinforcing and build on each other.
posted by VTX at 7:57 AM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
You get in the gym and work you ass off. Those weights are HEAVY and you have work HARD to get through all your exercises. Outside the gym you're careful to do all the other things you need to do to facilitate gains (eat enough, get enough sleep, etc.). And if you've done everything correctly you might be able to add another measly 5Lbs worth of weight on all of your exercises on the next cycle when you start it all over again.
It doesn't seem fair that you worked that hard to only add 5 more pounds and an injury or sickness or life may get in the way one cycle and you have to take a couple of steps backwards. But, slowly, overtime, you build strength.
The nice thing about being progressives is that whereas it always gets harder to lift more weight, if we keep working and keep voting, progress starts to get easier eventually.
There are a lot of things that need to be fixed and in order to fix them, we need progressive in power. As we keep voting and working and having success progressives gain more power. I think the key is more people voting. Work to roll back all the voter suppression and pass new laws to make it easier to vote. That makes it easier to vote more progressive into power which allows for the more complicated stuff (anti-gerrymandering, number of house seats, overrepresentation in the Senate, etc.). And all of these things are self-reinforcing and build on each other.
posted by VTX at 7:57 AM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
I'm so hoping the recount combined with all the suppression shit he pulled makes her the winner, and then he'll have NO job.
Absolutely fuck Brian Kemp. He and Gov. Deal are holding a "victory" press conference in the state capital today. Protesters are heading there now with COUNT EVERY VOTE signs. I hope they're overwhelming.
posted by Maaik at 8:01 AM on November 8, 2018 [39 favorites]
Absolutely fuck Brian Kemp. He and Gov. Deal are holding a "victory" press conference in the state capital today. Protesters are heading there now with COUNT EVERY VOTE signs. I hope they're overwhelming.
posted by Maaik at 8:01 AM on November 8, 2018 [39 favorites]
yoga: GA Repub Candidate Kemp claims victory, resigns from his SOS job. Meanwhile, Abrams declines to concede. I'm so hoping the recount combined with all the suppression shit he pulled makes her the winner, and then he'll have NO job.
If nothing else, he's not involved with the recount effort, right?
posted by filthy light thief at 8:24 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
If nothing else, he's not involved with the recount effort, right?
posted by filthy light thief at 8:24 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
If anyone tries to argue that the Congressional composition reflects the will of the people, let them know Democrats received over 12 million more votes than Republicans and still lost Senate seats.
The canned answer you will get (and this is already being deployed) is that this is on purpose, because the Senate is supposed to be equal representation amongst states, while the House is supposed to be equal representation amongst people. Those saying this will of course refuse to engage the question of whether that's actually a legitimate form of government, or even if maybe it was more legitimate previously when the federal government got started (and populations were less skewed) and perhaps now is less so.
It's basically the same old "originalist" kinda arguments (a.k.a. we can't change anything after 1776, despite the fact that most of the most important and cherished rights/aspects of government are literally called "amendments").
posted by tocts at 8:29 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
The canned answer you will get (and this is already being deployed) is that this is on purpose, because the Senate is supposed to be equal representation amongst states, while the House is supposed to be equal representation amongst people. Those saying this will of course refuse to engage the question of whether that's actually a legitimate form of government, or even if maybe it was more legitimate previously when the federal government got started (and populations were less skewed) and perhaps now is less so.
It's basically the same old "originalist" kinda arguments (a.k.a. we can't change anything after 1776, despite the fact that most of the most important and cherished rights/aspects of government are literally called "amendments").
posted by tocts at 8:29 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
the man of twists and turns: The Ghost Of Dennis Hof Haunts The Nevada Midterms (cw: sexual assault, overdose)
I read this article (written before the deceased Hof was successfully re-elected) all the way through, and I'm feeling shaken by the experience. Eponysterically, I did NOT see that article ending coming.
How do we deal with Republican voters like that?
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:30 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
I read this article (written before the deceased Hof was successfully re-elected) all the way through, and I'm feeling shaken by the experience. Eponysterically, I did NOT see that article ending coming.
How do we deal with Republican voters like that?
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:30 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
Election Law Blog: Florida! Poor Ballot Design in Broward County May Have Led Voters to Skip Senate Race
We could have swept the races in Georgia, Florida and Texas if the elections were fair.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 8:36 AM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
We could have swept the races in Georgia, Florida and Texas if the elections were fair.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 8:36 AM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
The Senate in general gives disproportionate representation to less-populous (i.e. Midwestern and redder) states because every state gets two Senators regardless of population. That's the case irrespective of the election results.
Make Wyoming A Territory Again
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:45 AM on November 8, 2018 [33 favorites]
Make Wyoming A Territory Again
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:45 AM on November 8, 2018 [33 favorites]
While Republicans get all in a huff about recounts, remember that in 2008 Republicans kept Al Franken in recount limbo all the way from November to the following July, thereby preventing the 60th vote needed to break a filibuster, about the time that Ted Kennedy became incapacitated by brain cancer, which again subtracted a 60th vote.
posted by JackFlash at 8:56 AM on November 8, 2018 [45 favorites]
posted by JackFlash at 8:56 AM on November 8, 2018 [45 favorites]
Florida! Poor Ballot Design in Broward County May Have Led Voters to Skip Senate Race
It's even more recent than the infamous "butterfly ballot." The same thing happened in 2006, when ballot design handed a Congressional seat to Republican Vern Buchanan.
I voted in that one. Got all the way to the end of a multi-page touchscreen ballot and realized the US House candidates never came up. Turned out that that was the *only* race where they put two races on the same touchscreen page. People tapped the their choice in one, and then hit "next." (I hadn't yet hit "submit," so was able to go back and fix it, though.)
Later that night I was working in the newsroom; my job was covering a couple of minor races. But I was putting the results of all the races in a spreadsheet as they came in, and saw thousands more people voting in my race than in the House race. I blew the whistle, we scrambled and we got a story in that night, for the day-after-elections paper, about the potential screw-up. Phones rung off the hook the next day. We found the missed vote was way more common in lean-Democratic precincts, and probably cost the Democrat thousands of votes in a race she lost by 369 votes.
Unfortunately, Florida law then and now only allows challenges on *malfunctioning* machines, not because of ballot design, and so the results held up. The county got rid of the touchscreen machines before the next election. Buchanan, ranked as among the 10 wealthiest people in Congress, still holds the seat.
posted by martin q blank at 9:00 AM on November 8, 2018 [42 favorites]
It's even more recent than the infamous "butterfly ballot." The same thing happened in 2006, when ballot design handed a Congressional seat to Republican Vern Buchanan.
I voted in that one. Got all the way to the end of a multi-page touchscreen ballot and realized the US House candidates never came up. Turned out that that was the *only* race where they put two races on the same touchscreen page. People tapped the their choice in one, and then hit "next." (I hadn't yet hit "submit," so was able to go back and fix it, though.)
Later that night I was working in the newsroom; my job was covering a couple of minor races. But I was putting the results of all the races in a spreadsheet as they came in, and saw thousands more people voting in my race than in the House race. I blew the whistle, we scrambled and we got a story in that night, for the day-after-elections paper, about the potential screw-up. Phones rung off the hook the next day. We found the missed vote was way more common in lean-Democratic precincts, and probably cost the Democrat thousands of votes in a race she lost by 369 votes.
Unfortunately, Florida law then and now only allows challenges on *malfunctioning* machines, not because of ballot design, and so the results held up. The county got rid of the touchscreen machines before the next election. Buchanan, ranked as among the 10 wealthiest people in Congress, still holds the seat.
posted by martin q blank at 9:00 AM on November 8, 2018 [42 favorites]
Make Wyoming A Territory Again
One Dakota Is Sufficient
Voter suppression is the biggest of these issues and like in 2016, it is in danger of being shrugged off.
It is very hard to vote your way to free and fair elections. This is one of those situations where separating policy from candidates may be more successful, as with Amendment 4 in Florida and the automatic voter registration questions in other states, or previously with the independent districting commission in California. It seems as if civic groups are heading in this direction, going through constitutional referenda and other initiatives depending upon what each state constitution allows. Even that, though, isn't enough to fix the implementation. The kind of local control that allows county boards to design ballot papers is incompatible with a modern democracy. Having control of elections be a partisan office is incompatible with a modern democracy.
It's not that different from universal healthcare: Americans have somehow been convinced that a thing which works (imperfectly, but successfully) in every other industrialised democracy cannot be done.
posted by holgate at 9:27 AM on November 8, 2018 [14 favorites]
One Dakota Is Sufficient
Voter suppression is the biggest of these issues and like in 2016, it is in danger of being shrugged off.
It is very hard to vote your way to free and fair elections. This is one of those situations where separating policy from candidates may be more successful, as with Amendment 4 in Florida and the automatic voter registration questions in other states, or previously with the independent districting commission in California. It seems as if civic groups are heading in this direction, going through constitutional referenda and other initiatives depending upon what each state constitution allows. Even that, though, isn't enough to fix the implementation. The kind of local control that allows county boards to design ballot papers is incompatible with a modern democracy. Having control of elections be a partisan office is incompatible with a modern democracy.
It's not that different from universal healthcare: Americans have somehow been convinced that a thing which works (imperfectly, but successfully) in every other industrialised democracy cannot be done.
posted by holgate at 9:27 AM on November 8, 2018 [14 favorites]
How do we deal with Republican voters like that?
I don't know, but it requires a very long view because it's a many-generations process. Defending social norms (patriarchy in this case) even at great personal cost is a virtue to many people, as explicitly demonstrated in that article. Some of the roots of patriarchy go back to at least the beginning of civilization itself, so it's been with us for millennia.
posted by MillMan at 9:31 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
I don't know, but it requires a very long view because it's a many-generations process. Defending social norms (patriarchy in this case) even at great personal cost is a virtue to many people, as explicitly demonstrated in that article. Some of the roots of patriarchy go back to at least the beginning of civilization itself, so it's been with us for millennia.
posted by MillMan at 9:31 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
I read this article (written before the deceased Hof was successfully re-elected) all the way through, and I'm feeling shaken by the experience. Eponysterically, I did NOT see that article ending coming.
Must confess that I skipped to the end since I don't have time for a longread right now but... fucking what?!
[In hyperlocal news, I emailed a tip to a reporter about some shenanigans in my state assembly race and he pointed out they did run a story on it on Monday, which I missed because I was sort of hunkering down at that point, but I passed along some extra info that he didn't know that does change the story a bit, so I'm hoping they keep reporting--it sounds like they are planning on doing so. We got the outcome we wanted, fairly handily, but I'm still angry and pretty sure that several people are lying.]
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
Must confess that I skipped to the end since I don't have time for a longread right now but... fucking what?!
[In hyperlocal news, I emailed a tip to a reporter about some shenanigans in my state assembly race and he pointed out they did run a story on it on Monday, which I missed because I was sort of hunkering down at that point, but I passed along some extra info that he didn't know that does change the story a bit, so I'm hoping they keep reporting--it sounds like they are planning on doing so. We got the outcome we wanted, fairly handily, but I'm still angry and pretty sure that several people are lying.]
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
C'est la D.C.: "Election Law Blog: Florida! Poor Ballot Design in Broward County May Have Led Voters to Skip Senate Race"
We note that the Broward elections chief was appointed by Jeb Bush.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:38 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
We note that the Broward elections chief was appointed by Jeb Bush.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:38 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
> [In hyperlocal news, I emailed a tip to a reporter about some shenanigans in my state assembly race and he pointed out they did run a story on it on Monday
From the story:
posted by tonycpsu at 9:44 AM on November 8, 2018 [21 favorites]
From the story:
As for the "socialist" label, Innamorato shrugs. âAmerica has elements of both capitalism and socialism,â she said, citing programs like Medicare in particular. âIf you simply say youâre against socialism, it means opposing a lot of programs that are very popular.âI love this answer, and hope that prominent Democrats use some version of it any time the GOP tries to socialist-shame them. When the "STOP SOCIALIST LINDSEY WILLIAMS" mailers and signs started flooding the area, I was worried that the attack would stick in a general election in Western PA, and it almost did for Williams. Now I'm hoping to see more of this kind of thing where they embrace the label, or at least point out the contradictions inherent in decrying socialism while collecting benefits of safety net programs.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:44 AM on November 8, 2018 [21 favorites]
holgate: "One Dakota Is Sufficient"
The reason we have two Dakotas is literally as a move to bolster GOP Senate power in the 1880s.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:48 AM on November 8, 2018 [39 favorites]
The reason we have two Dakotas is literally as a move to bolster GOP Senate power in the 1880s.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:48 AM on November 8, 2018 [39 favorites]
Nice to see four black Dems won in heavily white areas:
Lucy McBath - GA-06: 72.4% white
Antonio Delgado - NY-19: 89.7% white
Lauren Underwood - IL-14: 85.8% white
Colin Allred - TX-32: 62.6% white
posted by Chrysostom at 9:52 AM on November 8, 2018 [37 favorites]
Lucy McBath - GA-06: 72.4% white
Antonio Delgado - NY-19: 89.7% white
Lauren Underwood - IL-14: 85.8% white
Colin Allred - TX-32: 62.6% white
posted by Chrysostom at 9:52 AM on November 8, 2018 [37 favorites]
> I read this article (written before the deceased Hof was successfully re-elected) all the way through, and I'm feeling shaken by the experience. Eponysterically, I did NOT see that article ending coming.
Must confess that I skipped to the end since I don't have time for a longread right now but... fucking what?!
I skipped to what I thought was the end, and then saw there was more and skipped to the real end.
....are you....are you guys referring to the...the voting decision, or the....the cremains?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:02 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Must confess that I skipped to the end since I don't have time for a longread right now but... fucking what?!
I skipped to what I thought was the end, and then saw there was more and skipped to the real end.
....are you....are you guys referring to the...the voting decision, or the....the cremains?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:02 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Fixing the Senate: add Puerto Rico and DC?
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:03 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:03 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yes, but we need to win the Senate in order to pass statehood bills.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:05 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:05 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
âŚany time the GOP tries to socialist-shame them.
I could not agree more.  People make comments about how they hate and fear socialism and I have to remind them we've been a mixed economy ourselves for about a hundred years, and just what do they think the state-run power companies or municipal water companies are?  Our most trusted, most consistently well lead organizations from our day to day life are socialist.
And we know exactly what happens when you privatize those things that are better run by a publicly-owned entity.  People don't seem to remember ENRON and the shitshow in California that cost us billions of dollars as the hyper-rich drained the public's money, at least when it's convenient to their anti-socialist argument.
I want to see more of this brought up in elections.  You can fight back against their rhetoric, but we so often don't.  I feel it's perfectly acceptable to point out that a bit more socialism doesn't mean the end of capitalism.  A few "you're soaking in it" type ads this next election would be kinda nice to see.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:05 AM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
I could not agree more.  People make comments about how they hate and fear socialism and I have to remind them we've been a mixed economy ourselves for about a hundred years, and just what do they think the state-run power companies or municipal water companies are?  Our most trusted, most consistently well lead organizations from our day to day life are socialist.
And we know exactly what happens when you privatize those things that are better run by a publicly-owned entity.  People don't seem to remember ENRON and the shitshow in California that cost us billions of dollars as the hyper-rich drained the public's money, at least when it's convenient to their anti-socialist argument.
I want to see more of this brought up in elections.  You can fight back against their rhetoric, but we so often don't.  I feel it's perfectly acceptable to point out that a bit more socialism doesn't mean the end of capitalism.  A few "you're soaking in it" type ads this next election would be kinda nice to see.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:05 AM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
TX GOP heavily gerrymandered state House districts around Dallas. Now it backfired: they fell from 7 of 14 seats to to 2.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 10:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
A strong enough Puerto Rican voter contingent in Florida could make it a career killer to vote against even for a republican senator.
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by the agents of KAOS at 10:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Fixing the Senate: add Puerto Rico and DC?
Yes, but we need to win the Senate in order to pass statehood bills.
A real Catch 52.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:09 AM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Yes, but we need to win the Senate in order to pass statehood bills.
A real Catch 52.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:09 AM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
I feel like reducing the power of low-population states in the Senate will only happen when we get to a point where those states desperately need something - subsidization to pay for their needs without the tax base to carry themselves, perhaps - and a Democratic House will have to play hardball and offer relief only if the low-population states in question merge with other states. It will be extremely ugly in the run up to something like this but it seems like the only viable lever of power Democrats will have to change the power dynamic in the Senate outside of adding new states.
posted by jason_steakums at 10:17 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 10:17 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Nate Silver on outstanding races:
Here's how we rate the remaining uncalled races. In several of these, there are concessions but no official @ABC or AP call:posted by Chrysostom at 10:20 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]Solid D (>=95%)âCA-48, CA-49, WA-8Missed one: We're also rating TX-23, which has been called by some networks and not others, as Likely R.
Likely D (~85%)âNM-2, UT-4
Lean D (~65%)âCA-10, CA-39
Tossup (~50%)âCA-45, ME-2, NJ-3
Lean R
Likely R
Solid RâMN-1, NC-9
Most likely, though, it will be the five in the middle, CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, ME-2 and NJ-3, that determine where we end up on the scale from D+35 to D+40.
NY-27 (Chris Collins) is another one where there's some disagreement on whether the race can be called. After looking at it, we're moving it to Likely R. The margin is ~2700 with ~10K absentees to be counted. Highly likely Collins wins but not 100% safe.
Among the uncalled Senate races, we have Arizona as Lean R, Florida as Likely R, and the Mississippi special election also as Likely R. Republicans will net 3 seats from Democrats if they win all 3.
We're also moving GA-7âanother one where the networks differâfrom "called R" to Likely R. The Dem trails by 900 votes here but there's 20K absentee votes still left to be counted.
On the other side, we're also moving NY-22 from "called D" to Likely D.
Can anyone with Ohio knowledge speak a little to what happened with Cordray? It was looking quite close, and he had a slight edge in the polls, and then nope. There was record midterm turnout, which would ordinarily favor Democrats (Cordray won more votes than Kasich, who previously won in a landslide), but the same Republicans who voted for Trump really turned out this time.
I, at least, was trying to use this race as a bit of a barometer on an Elizabeth Warren-style campaign focusing on "standing up to corporate wrongdoers on behalf of working families," with the hope that message could work with some Ohio voters who went Trump in 2016, the alleged voters with "economic anxiety" we hear so much about. And I haven't drilled super deep into the county-by-county results, but I guess it doesn't seem like it worked? I wasn't exposed to his campaign messaging though; does anyone local have a sense of what happened?
posted by zachlipton at 10:21 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
I, at least, was trying to use this race as a bit of a barometer on an Elizabeth Warren-style campaign focusing on "standing up to corporate wrongdoers on behalf of working families," with the hope that message could work with some Ohio voters who went Trump in 2016, the alleged voters with "economic anxiety" we hear so much about. And I haven't drilled super deep into the county-by-county results, but I guess it doesn't seem like it worked? I wasn't exposed to his campaign messaging though; does anyone local have a sense of what happened?
posted by zachlipton at 10:21 AM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
I reminded people on Tumblr: voting in the US was designed for rich, older white men, and they have begrudged every other category of people who've been allowed to vote, and actively worked to make it harder for them. One-day voting on a weekday favors the retired; lines and crowds at polling places favors people who aren't managing toddlers; troublesome and confusing ballot design favors those with time and mental energy to review it in detail; specifically-assigned voting location favors people who've lived in one place for a long time, and so on.
There are plenty of disenfranchisement attempts that have nothing to do with gerrymandering and voter ID laws. We need a growing national message of "votes for all" that includes redesigning huge sections of the "fair" parts of the system along with throwing out the overtly bigoted laws.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:22 AM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
I, at least, was trying to use this race as a bit of a barometer on an Elizabeth Warren-style campaign focusing on "standing up to corporate wrongdoers on behalf of working families," with the hope that message could work with some Ohio voters who went Trump in 2016, the alleged voters with "economic anxiety" we hear so much about.
imho this is the kind of message that plays really well on metafilter but not so much with fleshvoters in meatland
sometimes I wonder if we underestimate how many people just reflexively hate being categorized as "the little guy" who needs somebody standing up on their behalf
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:27 AM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
imho this is the kind of message that plays really well on metafilter but not so much with fleshvoters in meatland
sometimes I wonder if we underestimate how many people just reflexively hate being categorized as "the little guy" who needs somebody standing up on their behalf
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:27 AM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
On the other side, we're also moving NY-22 from "called D" to Likely D
From our 'local' (gannett owned) newspaper:
Anthony Brindisi declares victory over Claudia Tenney, but it's too close to call
waaaaah. I was afraid it was too good to be true.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
From our 'local' (gannett owned) newspaper:
Anthony Brindisi declares victory over Claudia Tenney, but it's too close to call
waaaaah. I was afraid it was too good to be true.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Goldie Taylor:
Dear White Lady, What Are You Doing to Us?
You stuck right with Trump into the midterm elections, and honey, I hate to tell you, but this is about as classy as he gets.
posted by growabrain at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
Dear White Lady, What Are You Doing to Us?
You stuck right with Trump into the midterm elections, and honey, I hate to tell you, but this is about as classy as he gets.
posted by growabrain at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
We need a growing national message of "votes for all" that includes redesigning huge sections of the "fair" parts of the system along with throwing out the overtly bigoted laws.
"Fair shares"?
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2018
"Fair shares"?
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2018
First things first, the Senate as a house and equal representation by state are not going away. Youâd need probably two Constitutional amendments, approved by 2/3 of both houses and 3/4 of states, which would include a lot of the small states. Or youâd need to overthrow the government or something, and now you have a different problem.
Letâs look at big states and small states to see who stands to benefit.
Top 10 states by population, with my subjective assessment of Senate/ overall current partisan lean:
1. California (D)
2. Texas (R)
3. Florida (R)
4. New York (D)
5. Pennsylvania (D)
6. Illinois (D)
7. Ohio (R)
8. Georgia (R)
9. North Carolina (R)
10. Michigan (D)
5 red states and 5 blue states would stand to benefit from proportional representation.
10 smallest states:
41. New Hampshire (D)
42. Maine (D-ish)
43. Rhode Island (D)
44. Montana (R-ish)
45. Delaware (D)
46. South Dakota (R)
47. North Dakota (R)
48. Alaska (R)
49. Vermont (D)
50. Wyoming (R)
Again, basically 5 D and 5 R would be hurt by ending equal representation. And Hawaii is #40.
The large state/small state divide isnât necessarily an overt partisan divide; it just looks that way because Wyoming is bigger on the map than Vermont and Rhode Island.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:42 AM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
Letâs look at big states and small states to see who stands to benefit.
Top 10 states by population, with my subjective assessment of Senate/ overall current partisan lean:
1. California (D)
2. Texas (R)
3. Florida (R)
4. New York (D)
5. Pennsylvania (D)
6. Illinois (D)
7. Ohio (R)
8. Georgia (R)
9. North Carolina (R)
10. Michigan (D)
5 red states and 5 blue states would stand to benefit from proportional representation.
10 smallest states:
41. New Hampshire (D)
42. Maine (D-ish)
43. Rhode Island (D)
44. Montana (R-ish)
45. Delaware (D)
46. South Dakota (R)
47. North Dakota (R)
48. Alaska (R)
49. Vermont (D)
50. Wyoming (R)
Again, basically 5 D and 5 R would be hurt by ending equal representation. And Hawaii is #40.
The large state/small state divide isnât necessarily an overt partisan divide; it just looks that way because Wyoming is bigger on the map than Vermont and Rhode Island.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:42 AM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
All that voter suppression and outright lying has crossed a
(â˘_â˘)
( â˘_â˘)>ââ -â
(ââ _â )
Georgia-Florida Line.
No? I'm told it's a country band ... Is that ... No? Okay. No, it's ... no, you're right, withdrawn.
posted by petebest at 10:43 AM on November 8, 2018 [14 favorites]
(â˘_â˘)
( â˘_â˘)>ââ -â
(ââ _â )
Georgia-Florida Line.
No? I'm told it's a country band ... Is that ... No? Okay. No, it's ... no, you're right, withdrawn.
posted by petebest at 10:43 AM on November 8, 2018 [14 favorites]
TX-32 is my district, and I'm thrilled that Colin Allred replaced Pete Sessions. In my district alone, we had 2,302 registered voters -- and 1,512 turned out for this election. That's 65.7% voter turnout! My Precinct Chair noted that this is nearly 2x as many voters showing up to the polls as 2014's midterm election cycle.
I'm tired, I'm annoyed that Beto didn't win, but I'm also here to say that every Dem candidate I stumped for, donated to and wrote postcards on behalf of won their seats. There were at least 12 unopposed Democratic women running for judgeships on my ballot Tuesday, and I teared up when I saw that.
Texas may still be red, but it's trending purple and outright blue in the bigger counties. Until this week, Tarrant County (where Ft. Worth is) was famous for being one of the largest, most urban and reddest GOP strongholds across the United States.
Beto beat Cruz in Tarrant County by just under 4,000 votes. This is a hyperlocal voting shift, but if it's happening in Tarrant County, I have hope that rural voters aren't totally unreachable in 2020.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 10:44 AM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
I'm tired, I'm annoyed that Beto didn't win, but I'm also here to say that every Dem candidate I stumped for, donated to and wrote postcards on behalf of won their seats. There were at least 12 unopposed Democratic women running for judgeships on my ballot Tuesday, and I teared up when I saw that.
Texas may still be red, but it's trending purple and outright blue in the bigger counties. Until this week, Tarrant County (where Ft. Worth is) was famous for being one of the largest, most urban and reddest GOP strongholds across the United States.
Beto beat Cruz in Tarrant County by just under 4,000 votes. This is a hyperlocal voting shift, but if it's happening in Tarrant County, I have hope that rural voters aren't totally unreachable in 2020.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 10:44 AM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
I feel like people talk about political geography as if it's static, but it isn't. I want to know what those population per senator charts are going ot look like after the population redistributes due to climate change.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:45 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:45 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
The country band is named Florida Georgia Line.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:53 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by reductiondesign at 10:53 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
The Senate has two anti-democratic tendencies: "equal suffrage" for small states, and the filibuster. "Equal suffrage" is in the Constitution, and cannot even be amended out. But the ill effects of both could be lessened by filibuster reform.
For instance, the Senate could adopt a rule that a simple majority vote is sufficient to limit debate. But the motion to do so is not available at all times. It can only be done after a subset of Senators who collectively represent a majority of Americans have been recognized to speak.
This removes the filibuster as a means for a Senate minority to obstruct popular reforms, while still permitting it to be used against a Senate majority that lacks a popular mandate.
However, the majority can nuke a rule at any time, as we've seen. So something like this wouldn't survive absent strong pro-democratic norms among voters â or at least strong self-interest by large-state Senators in the Senate majority.
posted by ContinuousWave at 10:57 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
For instance, the Senate could adopt a rule that a simple majority vote is sufficient to limit debate. But the motion to do so is not available at all times. It can only be done after a subset of Senators who collectively represent a majority of Americans have been recognized to speak.
This removes the filibuster as a means for a Senate minority to obstruct popular reforms, while still permitting it to be used against a Senate majority that lacks a popular mandate.
However, the majority can nuke a rule at any time, as we've seen. So something like this wouldn't survive absent strong pro-democratic norms among voters â or at least strong self-interest by large-state Senators in the Senate majority.
posted by ContinuousWave at 10:57 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
and cannot even be amended out
Are there actually parts of the Constitution that an amendment can't change? How does that work?
posted by reductiondesign at 10:59 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Are there actually parts of the Constitution that an amendment can't change? How does that work?
posted by reductiondesign at 10:59 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
> In several of these, there are concessions but no official @ABC or AP call:
Surely the concession is more official than ABC or AP?
posted by The corpse in the library at 11:00 AM on November 8, 2018
Surely the concession is more official than ABC or AP?
posted by The corpse in the library at 11:00 AM on November 8, 2018
Oops. Lawsuit.
Stacey Abramsâ campaign announced that it will file a lawsuit in Dougherty County claiming that voters were denied the opportunity to cast ballots by mail during the general election.
... Some residents of Dougherty County, which includes the city of Albany, requested ballots by mail and never received them, Kastorf said. Others received them too close to the election and werenât given enough time to fill out and return ballots by the stateâs deadline, he said.
The lawsuit will ask the courts to require that these ballots be counted, even if they were received late.
posted by petebest at 11:02 AM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
Stacey Abramsâ campaign announced that it will file a lawsuit in Dougherty County claiming that voters were denied the opportunity to cast ballots by mail during the general election.
... Some residents of Dougherty County, which includes the city of Albany, requested ballots by mail and never received them, Kastorf said. Others received them too close to the election and werenât given enough time to fill out and return ballots by the stateâs deadline, he said.
The lawsuit will ask the courts to require that these ballots be counted, even if they were received late.
posted by petebest at 11:02 AM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
Are there actually parts of the Constitution that an amendment can't change? How does that work?
I think it might be more that the chances of getting an amendment through the process at this point would be a near impossibility.
posted by nubs at 11:07 AM on November 8, 2018
I think it might be more that the chances of getting an amendment through the process at this point would be a near impossibility.
posted by nubs at 11:07 AM on November 8, 2018
Are there actually parts of the Constitution that an amendment can't change? How does that work?
There is exactly one part of the Constitution that can't be changed by amendment, and it's equal suffrage of the states. Here's Article V in it's entirety:
I guess if you want to get fancy there's nothing in Article V saying that Article V itself can't be amended, but I can't see that happening outside of a full-on Constitutional Convention.
posted by Uncle Ira at 11:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
There is exactly one part of the Constitution that can't be changed by amendment, and it's equal suffrage of the states. Here's Article V in it's entirety:
The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the legislatures of three fourths of the several states, or by conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other mode of ratification may be proposed by the Congress; provided that no amendment which may be made prior to the year one thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any manner affect the first and fourth clauses in the ninth section of the first article; and that no state, without its consent, shall be deprived of its equal suffrage in the Senate.It's after 1808, so the only limitation on amendments is the part I've bolded here at the end. So we're stuck with equal suffrage.
I guess if you want to get fancy there's nothing in Article V saying that Article V itself can't be amended, but I can't see that happening outside of a full-on Constitutional Convention.
posted by Uncle Ira at 11:08 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
...without it's consent...
So if the state consents, it can indeed be deprived of it's equal suffrage.
posted by VTX at 11:10 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
So if the state consents, it can indeed be deprived of it's equal suffrage.
posted by VTX at 11:10 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
it would probably be a million times easier to electorally capture the senate for a generation than to merge states or amend the constitution, but I do appreciate the fact that we're bound to spend a lot of time splitballing about improbable hypotheticals on a slow news week like this
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:11 AM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:11 AM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
For instance, the Senate could adopt a rule that a simple majority vote is sufficient to limit debate. But the motion to do so is not available at all times. It can only be done after a subset of Senators who collectively represent a majority of Americans have been recognized to speak.
Welcome to the world of weighted voting! While it's terrible to weight voters when they choose representatives, I think it's a wonderful idea to weight representatives (by the size of their constituency*) when they vote on legislative business. It might be too weird or counterintuitive to convince people to give it a shot, but who knows?
*And as long as you're doing that, why limit yourself to just taking the top candidate as the winner? Reduce the number of wasted votes by taking the top X vote-getters, or every candidate that gets more than X% of the vote, or...
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:12 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Welcome to the world of weighted voting! While it's terrible to weight voters when they choose representatives, I think it's a wonderful idea to weight representatives (by the size of their constituency*) when they vote on legislative business. It might be too weird or counterintuitive to convince people to give it a shot, but who knows?
*And as long as you're doing that, why limit yourself to just taking the top candidate as the winner? Reduce the number of wasted votes by taking the top X vote-getters, or every candidate that gets more than X% of the vote, or...
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:12 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I reminded people on Tumblr: voting in the US was designed for rich, older white men, and they have begrudged every other category of people who've been allowed to vote, and actively worked to make it harder for them.
This was also true in most other industrialised democracies. It changed. What those nations didn't have is a large population of black slaves and their descendants.
Many individual states in the US actually led the way by reducing or abolishing property qualifications for white men in the early 1800s, something that the UK only managed in the later half of the century, amid extensive working-class agitation for universal suffrage inspired in part by the US Civil War. What separates the US is Reconstruction and "Redemption" -- an expansion of the franchise that was then taken away by violence.
The states where the conduct of elections and broader civic infrastructure has been decent the longest are very white. (Hi Oregonians!) Voter suppression is less of an issue when you do not fear the collective political power of the black vote. Other states have dumb rules as vestiges of the old political machines designed to put newer (white) immigrants into positions of power -- these are typically the states with no early voting, the assumption being that local bosses would round up and deliver their voters to the polls. And then there are the southern states with no extended history of free and fair elections.
posted by holgate at 11:12 AM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
This was also true in most other industrialised democracies. It changed. What those nations didn't have is a large population of black slaves and their descendants.
Many individual states in the US actually led the way by reducing or abolishing property qualifications for white men in the early 1800s, something that the UK only managed in the later half of the century, amid extensive working-class agitation for universal suffrage inspired in part by the US Civil War. What separates the US is Reconstruction and "Redemption" -- an expansion of the franchise that was then taken away by violence.
The states where the conduct of elections and broader civic infrastructure has been decent the longest are very white. (Hi Oregonians!) Voter suppression is less of an issue when you do not fear the collective political power of the black vote. Other states have dumb rules as vestiges of the old political machines designed to put newer (white) immigrants into positions of power -- these are typically the states with no early voting, the assumption being that local bosses would round up and deliver their voters to the polls. And then there are the southern states with no extended history of free and fair elections.
posted by holgate at 11:12 AM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
Surely the concession is more official than ABC or AP?
A concession is purely symbolic, and carries no legal weight.
posted by azpenguin at 11:16 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
A concession is purely symbolic, and carries no legal weight.
posted by azpenguin at 11:16 AM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Bernie Sanders on Andrew Gillium and Stacey Abrams: Many Whites Made âUncomfortableâ Voting for Black Candidates
posted by tonycpsu at 11:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
âI think you know there are a lot of white folks out there who are not necessarily racist who felt uncomfortable for the first time in their lives about whether or not they wanted to vote for an African-American,â Sanders told The Daily Beast, referencing the close contests involving Andrew Gillum in Florida and Stacey Abrams in Georgia and that ads run against the two. âI think next time around, by the way, it will be a lot easier for them to do that.â*facepalm*
posted by tonycpsu at 11:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
The corpse in the library: "Surely the concession is more official than ABC or AP?"
Not really? A concession has no legal meaning. It just means that (probably) the candidate won't be taking any legal action. If, for some reason, the final count ends up favoring the conceding candidate, she still wins.
The AP call is usually safer because they're pretty conservative about them. Obviously, they can be wrong.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Not really? A concession has no legal meaning. It just means that (probably) the candidate won't be taking any legal action. If, for some reason, the final count ends up favoring the conceding candidate, she still wins.
The AP call is usually safer because they're pretty conservative about them. Obviously, they can be wrong.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:18 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Thatâs the other thing; if you have 2/3 of the Senate to amend the Constitution, you probably donât need to change the Senate.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:25 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:25 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Dems lost ground in Senate while actually winning most of the races - Eric Black, MinnPost
That is, they won most of the Senate races in play for this specific election.
That is, they won most of the Senate races in play for this specific election.
Democrats won 65 percent of the Senate races, yet lost ground. That, obviously is the result of an oddity (compared to most other democracies in the world) of the U.S. system: the staggered six-year terms of senators, which results in only about a third of the 100 Senate seats being up every two years. Weâre so used to it that it may not look odd to us, but it is and, in this particular case, it led to the fairly flukey result that Democrats lost ground in the Senate while winning most of the races.posted by ZeusHumms at 11:28 AM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
Election results strengthen [Wisconsin] partisan gerrymandering case, says group that sued over maps
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:28 AM on November 8, 2018
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:28 AM on November 8, 2018
Looking at the 2020 Senate race map, where are realistic pickup opportunities?
posted by C'est la D.C. at 11:31 AM on November 8, 2018
posted by C'est la D.C. at 11:31 AM on November 8, 2018
there are a lot of white folks out there who are not necessarily racist who felt uncomfortable for the first time in their lives about whether or not they wanted to vote for an African-American
There are a lot of birds who are not necessarily ducks who quack and have bills and webbed feet.
posted by uncleozzy at 11:31 AM on November 8, 2018 [20 favorites]
There are a lot of birds who are not necessarily ducks who quack and have bills and webbed feet.
posted by uncleozzy at 11:31 AM on November 8, 2018 [20 favorites]
A good first/next step is to lower the threshold for House seats and increasing the number of Representatives. I'd start with the "one per 30000" in the Constitution, but "one per 100000" would be good.
posted by BeeDo at 11:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by BeeDo at 11:32 AM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Looking at the 2020 Senate race map, where are realistic pickup opportunities?
Daines (MT) should be nervous, IMO.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:39 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Daines (MT) should be nervous, IMO.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:39 AM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
> Looking at the 2020 Senate race map, where are realistic pickup opportunities?
My very rough back-of-the-envelope look at things:
Tier 1 (good shot):ME (Collins), CO (Gardner)
Tier 2 (puncher's chance): NC (Tillis), AZ (Kyl), GA (Perdue)
Tier 3 (in a legit "blue wave" carried by Obama-esque coattails: IA (Ernst), TX (Cornyn), SC (Graham)
Tier 4 (cold day in Hell): the rest
Obviously things can change between now and then, but I don't see them closing a >15% Trump 2016 margin given how things went on Tuesday.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:40 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
My very rough back-of-the-envelope look at things:
Tier 1 (good shot):ME (Collins), CO (Gardner)
Tier 2 (puncher's chance): NC (Tillis), AZ (Kyl), GA (Perdue)
Tier 3 (in a legit "blue wave" carried by Obama-esque coattails: IA (Ernst), TX (Cornyn), SC (Graham)
Tier 4 (cold day in Hell): the rest
Obviously things can change between now and then, but I don't see them closing a >15% Trump 2016 margin given how things went on Tuesday.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:40 AM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Tomas Kennedy is reporting that the Florida governor and Senate race margins are now within the range to trigger a recount.
posted by SoundInhabitant at 11:40 AM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
posted by SoundInhabitant at 11:40 AM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
Looking at the 2020 Senate race map, where are realistic pickup opportunities?
Top tier: Colorado is a very good opportunity. Maine.
Medium: Iowa - picked up 3/4 House seats, and ran close gov race. North Carolina - Dems won popular vote in House. Georgia (Abrams could run, if she doesn't prevail in GA Gov).
Worth a shot: Alaska. Kansas - just elected Dem gov, 1 Dem and one close close loss in House. Montana. Texas, if Beto runs again.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:42 AM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
Top tier: Colorado is a very good opportunity. Maine.
Medium: Iowa - picked up 3/4 House seats, and ran close gov race. North Carolina - Dems won popular vote in House. Georgia (Abrams could run, if she doesn't prevail in GA Gov).
Worth a shot: Alaska. Kansas - just elected Dem gov, 1 Dem and one close close loss in House. Montana. Texas, if Beto runs again.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:42 AM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
I think you know there are a lot of white folks out there who are not necessarily racist who felt uncomfortableWonder if thatâs what he thought about the only black woman in the Vermont state legislature being chased out of office by terroristic threats that the state authorities refused to take seriously. AFAIK he didnât say or do a goddamn thing about that, and Senators absolutely have the juice to push for investigations and protections.
I will never understand why this guy gets such a pass all the damn time.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:43 AM on November 8, 2018 [63 favorites]
Do t the vast, empty western states already depend on the rest of us for their water?
Total derail, but no in fact they do not, unless by "us" you mean other vast empty Western states. E.g. Western Nebraska depends on Wyoming for water. Much of Utah's water is coming from the Rockies.
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Total derail, but no in fact they do not, unless by "us" you mean other vast empty Western states. E.g. Western Nebraska depends on Wyoming for water. Much of Utah's water is coming from the Rockies.
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Tier 2 (puncher's chance): NC (Tillis), AZ (Kyl), GA (Perdue)
An AZ pickup is made more likely by Kyl's seat opening up (he's given indications that he doesn't want another term).
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:47 AM on November 8, 2018
An AZ pickup is made more likely by Kyl's seat opening up (he's given indications that he doesn't want another term).
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:47 AM on November 8, 2018
Yeah, I still wouldn't put it in the top tier. Depends on the candidate, who the GOP runs, etc. but AZ statewide is hella Trumpy.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:50 AM on November 8, 2018
posted by tonycpsu at 11:50 AM on November 8, 2018
Kyl is out when the new Congress arrives â he was just there to vote for Kavanaugh. If Sinema pulls this out McSally will get that seat instead. Either way there will be an incumbent in 2020.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:52 AM on November 8, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:52 AM on November 8, 2018
Kyl is most likely retiring before the end of this year, he was just to get Kavanaugh through, and he doesn't want to have to fill out any disclosure stuff. It will be McSally, if she doesn't prevail in the current race.
I'd call Arizona medium.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:53 AM on November 8, 2018
I'd call Arizona medium.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:53 AM on November 8, 2018
Looking at the 2020 Senate race map, where are realistic pickup opportunities?
Top tier: Colorado is a very good opportunity. Maine.
Be ye it known that I am dedicating my life to getting Cory Fucking Gardner (R-Coward) defeated in Colorado in 2020.
posted by 2soxy4mypuppet at 11:57 AM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
Top tier: Colorado is a very good opportunity. Maine.
Be ye it known that I am dedicating my life to getting Cory Fucking Gardner (R-Coward) defeated in Colorado in 2020.
posted by 2soxy4mypuppet at 11:57 AM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
In Texas, the "rainbow wave" outpaces the blue one: Fourteen of 35 LGBTQ candidates won their races Tuesday night (Hannah Wiley, Texas Tribune)
posted by mcdoublewide at 12:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
The historic number of Texas candidates who ran for offices from governor down to city council positions joined a record-shattering rank of more than 400 LGBTQ individuals on national midterm ballots this year.Which reminds me, I forgot to share some good news from earlier in the year. After a 77-77 tie in May, Dana Goolsby, an out and married lesbian, won the June runoff and got herself elected to the city council in Palestine, a little town of 18,000 or so in East Texas. If you are not familiar with little towns in East Texas, let me assure you this is a big deal.
âIt shows that politics are changing and that more LGBTQ people feel comfortable to step out and run openly,â said Sean Meloy, political director at Victory Fund, a Washington D.C.-based LGBTQ group that fundraised for several Texas races.
posted by mcdoublewide at 12:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
Is Kris Kobach's Defeat In Kansas A Model For How To Beat Trumpism?
posted by Chrysostom at 12:04 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 12:04 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Is Kris Kobach's Defeat In Kansas A Model For How To Beat Trumpism?
Have the state run for eight years by zealots and numpties who crater the economy? It might work.
Less facetiously, look at the difference between Kansas and Oklahoma: Kevin Stitt ran explicitly against incumbent Republicans and rejected Mary Fallin's endorsement. Kobach won his primary by less than 400 votes and had a ton of baggage. So there are clearly opportunities in deep red states when the Republican primary electorate opens the door.
posted by holgate at 12:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Have the state run for eight years by zealots and numpties who crater the economy? It might work.
Less facetiously, look at the difference between Kansas and Oklahoma: Kevin Stitt ran explicitly against incumbent Republicans and rejected Mary Fallin's endorsement. Kobach won his primary by less than 400 votes and had a ton of baggage. So there are clearly opportunities in deep red states when the Republican primary electorate opens the door.
posted by holgate at 12:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
I'm not thrilled with sticking my neck out here, but as someone who grew up in a rural area of the mountain west, I'm more comfortable with the Senate structured this way than not.
First of all, in principle, tyranny of the majority is a visceral issue for me -- ironically as a result of growing up culturally progressive in an overwhelmingly conservative environment. I'm sensitive to it when feeling it from the other direction, as I do here on MetaFilter with contempt of "fly-over country" or, in a different way, ableism from otherwise progressive mefites.
I value regional cultural diversity -- in fact, it's one of my favorite things and fascinates me endlessly. Putting aside my own sentimental attachment to the sparsely populated, rural mountain west, I take as much delight in the Florida Keys, or New Mexican Spanish Land Grant legacy Hispanic villages, or Puerto Rico, or New England fishing towns, or ao many others. I want to protect that regional diversity that is strongest in rural America and is often strongest in low-population states. I'm suspicious of and unhappy with the increasing major metropolitan monoculture, heavily dominated by the coastal megacities.
History has so many examples of how too much concentration of politcal influence in one sector or region or city causes problems that are difficult to resolve.
I'm not happy at all that white, religious America is overrepresented by the demographics of these small states. Not at all. But I'd like to see a way around this problem that doesn't result in an America captured by the coastal megacities.
As the above list shows, it's not just entrenched GOP states in these small states. New Mexico is (mostly) reliably blue and that's not because of Albuquerque -- it's because of the majority Hispanic communities in lower population areas of the state. The same is true there and elsewhere in the west with Native populations. And, in the end, even though low-population red state America lags (most) everywhere else, it's still trending leftward.
I'd first like to get more direct, equitable representation in the Presidential election and eliminate the voter suppression everywhere. I think that will solve a lot of this. I'd like Purto Rico, but arguably DC is a more realistic goal. And through all this, we can be finding ways to ameliorate the worst effects of this red, rural state disproportionate influence.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:24 PM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
First of all, in principle, tyranny of the majority is a visceral issue for me -- ironically as a result of growing up culturally progressive in an overwhelmingly conservative environment. I'm sensitive to it when feeling it from the other direction, as I do here on MetaFilter with contempt of "fly-over country" or, in a different way, ableism from otherwise progressive mefites.
I value regional cultural diversity -- in fact, it's one of my favorite things and fascinates me endlessly. Putting aside my own sentimental attachment to the sparsely populated, rural mountain west, I take as much delight in the Florida Keys, or New Mexican Spanish Land Grant legacy Hispanic villages, or Puerto Rico, or New England fishing towns, or ao many others. I want to protect that regional diversity that is strongest in rural America and is often strongest in low-population states. I'm suspicious of and unhappy with the increasing major metropolitan monoculture, heavily dominated by the coastal megacities.
History has so many examples of how too much concentration of politcal influence in one sector or region or city causes problems that are difficult to resolve.
I'm not happy at all that white, religious America is overrepresented by the demographics of these small states. Not at all. But I'd like to see a way around this problem that doesn't result in an America captured by the coastal megacities.
As the above list shows, it's not just entrenched GOP states in these small states. New Mexico is (mostly) reliably blue and that's not because of Albuquerque -- it's because of the majority Hispanic communities in lower population areas of the state. The same is true there and elsewhere in the west with Native populations. And, in the end, even though low-population red state America lags (most) everywhere else, it's still trending leftward.
I'd first like to get more direct, equitable representation in the Presidential election and eliminate the voter suppression everywhere. I think that will solve a lot of this. I'd like Purto Rico, but arguably DC is a more realistic goal. And through all this, we can be finding ways to ameliorate the worst effects of this red, rural state disproportionate influence.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 12:24 PM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
NBC: Progressives' Plan For Victory Just Took a Gut-Punch. Now What Do They Do?âThe Left has been eager to show it can build a winning coalition for 2020 and beyond. But that didn't happen in the midterms.
Meanwhile, GOP strongholds remained impenetrable, per Cook Report US House editor Dave Wasserman: For anyone who doubted the post-Labor Day consolidation of the Trump base: Dems didn't flip a single GOP House seat where Trump broke 55% of the vote.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:25 PM on November 8, 2018
Despite a good night for congressional Democrats overall, nearly all of national progressive groups' star candidates fell short in their contests in red or purple districts and states, potentially slowing the momentum the emboldened left had enjoyed since Hillary Clinton's loss two years ago.The question is if the most important lessons to learn are from the defeats of Randy "Ironstache" Bryce in Wisconsin, Ben Jealous in Maryland, and Katie Porter in California or those of Beto OâRourke in Texas, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, and Phil Bredesen in Tennessee.
"Progressives have to really do some hard thinking about the shape of the movement looking at 2020 and beyond," said progressive strategist Jonathan Tasini, adding that while the left had successes in some local races, they struggled in statewide contests.[...]
Sean McElwee, the progressive activist who popularized the call to "abolish ICE," acknowledged that Democrats' biggest successes this cycle came in primaries in safe blue seats, where rising stars like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York and Ayanna Pressley in Massachusetts ousted longtime Democratic incumbents and cruised to victories Tuesday.
"We should really take seriously the idea that the path forward is contesting for power in (primaries in) the deeper bluer seats," said McElwee, who runs the think tank Data for Progress, adding that approach would help progressives form a bulwark in Congress to press their agenda.
Meanwhile, GOP strongholds remained impenetrable, per Cook Report US House editor Dave Wasserman: For anyone who doubted the post-Labor Day consolidation of the Trump base: Dems didn't flip a single GOP House seat where Trump broke 55% of the vote.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:25 PM on November 8, 2018
Photo Of Ex-Death Row Inmate With #VOTED Sticker On His Forehead Goes Viral
posted by growabrain at 12:35 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 12:35 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
538 just moved Florida Senate from Likely R to Lean R. Something funky going on with undervote in Broward.
posted by Justinian at 12:36 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 12:36 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
Looks like the nature of the error is such that voter intent is discernable? I haven't read too deeply into it.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:37 PM on November 8, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:37 PM on November 8, 2018
Chrysostom: Nate Silver on outstanding races: Here's how we rate the remaining uncalled races.
In several of these, there are concessions but no official @ABC or AP call:
...
Likely D (~85%)âNM-2
Xochitl Torres Small wins Congressional District 2 race; Herrell does not concede (Sun-News report; published 7:09 p.m. MT Nov. 7, 2018 | Updated 9:51 a.m. MT Nov. 8, 2018)
The secretary of state's office said it still has 100 ballots that need to be hand tallied along with approximately 1,000 provisional ballots. However, even if Herrell was to get the majority of those votes, it would not be enough for her to catch Torres Small. (Joshua Panas, Patrick Hayes for New Mexico KOB 4, November 07, 2018 10:12 PM)
In other awesome news from southern New Mexico elections: Kim Stewart will be first openly gay sheriff in state history, first woman sheriff in county (Blake Gumprecht, Las Cruces Sun-News; published 5:40 p.m. MT Nov. 7, 2018 | Updated 9:42 a.m. MT Nov. 8, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 12:38 PM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
In several of these, there are concessions but no official @ABC or AP call:
...
Likely D (~85%)âNM-2
Xochitl Torres Small wins Congressional District 2 race; Herrell does not concede (Sun-News report; published 7:09 p.m. MT Nov. 7, 2018 | Updated 9:51 a.m. MT Nov. 8, 2018)
Herrell campaign not concedingNew Mexico's SOS currently lists the totals as Torres Small: 99,440 (50.70%) winning over Herrell: 96,712 (49.30%) -- Precincts fully reporting: 501/501
At approximately 8:45 p.m., the Herrell campaign issued a statement: "Last night, we heard from Xochitl Torres Small that it was extremely important that every vote be counted. This campaign believes that should be the case and we look forward to seeing the results from all provisional ballots throughout the district."
Senior campaign advisor Rob Burgess confirmed that the campaign was not conceding the election, and declined further comment.
The secretary of state's office said it still has 100 ballots that need to be hand tallied along with approximately 1,000 provisional ballots. However, even if Herrell was to get the majority of those votes, it would not be enough for her to catch Torres Small. (Joshua Panas, Patrick Hayes for New Mexico KOB 4, November 07, 2018 10:12 PM)
In other awesome news from southern New Mexico elections: Kim Stewart will be first openly gay sheriff in state history, first woman sheriff in county (Blake Gumprecht, Las Cruces Sun-News; published 5:40 p.m. MT Nov. 7, 2018 | Updated 9:42 a.m. MT Nov. 8, 2018)
Kim Stewart came out as gay in 1989 and has been with her partner, now her wife, for even longer, so she doesnât think often about her sexuality.Emphasis mine, because that's FANTASTIC, as is her attitude to the job.
âI am who I am,â she said. âBecause thatâs my life, because itâs been my existence for so many years, itâs not a big deal to me.â
But Stewart, 65, achieved two important historical milestones in her election on Tuesday as DoĂąa Ana Countyâs next sheriff, so her gender and sexual orientation are once again in the spotlight.
In handily defeating Todd Garrison for sheriff, Stewart will become the first openly gay sheriff in the history of New Mexico. She will also be the first woman sheriff in DoĂąa Ana County history. All previous 32 sheriffs since 1854 have been men.
She will replace Sheriff Enrique "Kiki" Vigil, who served one term and lost in the Democratic primary.
Stewart, who was winning Tuesdayâs general election by an 8 percent margin, laughed off the historical nature of her victory.
âTo me, itâs a head-scratcher,â she said Wednesday. âI donât know what to do with it. I donât know if itâs a big deal. Does it inform how I do the law? Not really. It doesnât inform my attitudes about policing other than that I believe that people deserve equal levels of protection and service.â
posted by filthy light thief at 12:38 PM on November 8, 2018 [22 favorites]
Also of note: DoĂąa Ana County is right next to El Paso, TX, and right on the US/Mexico border, FWIW.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:41 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by filthy light thief at 12:41 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Perhaps the failure of Ironstache had more to do with a) it being a pretty red district, and b) him having lots of skeletons in his closet that were easy to attack.
I think that, just as we don't have to make a binary choice between direct action and electoralism, there doesn't have to be a binary moderate/progressive choice. Run progressives in safe blue areas, run moderates in red areas.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:45 PM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
I think that, just as we don't have to make a binary choice between direct action and electoralism, there doesn't have to be a binary moderate/progressive choice. Run progressives in safe blue areas, run moderates in red areas.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:45 PM on November 8, 2018 [15 favorites]
I haven't seen anything in these results or the last two years in general that makes me doubt the âleft-wing Tea Partyâ playbook of contesting primary elections in safe blue districts with the most progressive candidates you can find, until you have enough of them to become indispensible in any party-line vote, while the more vulnerable purple- and red-state/district Dems just go with the flow.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:51 PM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:51 PM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
I don't understand the desire to see the fact that not all the progressive candidates won their races as instead some sign of abject failure.  You don't have to win all or even most the races to start shifting the Overton window of what's possible in the electorate, you just have to run.  This is America, you're not gonna see a seismic shift overnight.  You're either in it for the long haul, or you've set yourself up for disappointment.
Some won.  That's fantastic, it gives us something to build on.  Would I have liked to see more?  Of course.  But some won.  It's a start; that's all Tuesday was ever gonna be.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:53 PM on November 8, 2018 [36 favorites]
Some won.  That's fantastic, it gives us something to build on.  Would I have liked to see more?  Of course.  But some won.  It's a start; that's all Tuesday was ever gonna be.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 12:53 PM on November 8, 2018 [36 favorites]
nearly all of national progressive groups' star candidates fell short in their contests in red or purple districts and states, potentially slowing the momentum
Sure, a lot of progressives in places with large Republican bases didn't win, but they didn't lose by huge margins either. The Rs kept their control with deli-thin-sliced margins. A lot of these places hadn't had a real progressive candidate in decades, and the Dems had been half-heartedly putting up bowls of rice pudding for the Republicans to stomp on. FFS, our Democratic choices on the state level in FL for too many years have been more wealthy white developers with fake tans and capped teeth who were almost indistinguishable from the Republican politicians with whom they shared country clubs. That the Dems put up a black man from blue-collar origins who got 49% of the damn vote is amazing. That's not a rout, that's so close it ought to make Republicans sweat for the next 4 years.
The returns on progressive candidates are not a reason to surrender to 3rd way Republican-lite tactics or to retreat to safe blue seats and abandon almost half the voters in red states. This is not a gut-punch, it's just the first round of a new fight.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 12:54 PM on November 8, 2018 [23 favorites]
Sure, a lot of progressives in places with large Republican bases didn't win, but they didn't lose by huge margins either. The Rs kept their control with deli-thin-sliced margins. A lot of these places hadn't had a real progressive candidate in decades, and the Dems had been half-heartedly putting up bowls of rice pudding for the Republicans to stomp on. FFS, our Democratic choices on the state level in FL for too many years have been more wealthy white developers with fake tans and capped teeth who were almost indistinguishable from the Republican politicians with whom they shared country clubs. That the Dems put up a black man from blue-collar origins who got 49% of the damn vote is amazing. That's not a rout, that's so close it ought to make Republicans sweat for the next 4 years.
The returns on progressive candidates are not a reason to surrender to 3rd way Republican-lite tactics or to retreat to safe blue seats and abandon almost half the voters in red states. This is not a gut-punch, it's just the first round of a new fight.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 12:54 PM on November 8, 2018 [23 favorites]
Perhaps the failure of Ironstache had more to do with a) it being a pretty red district, and b) him having lots of skeletons in his closet that were easy to attack.
It can't help that his big splash was forever ago in election cycle terms and tied so specifically to opposing Ryan, with the whole David v Goliath appeal.
posted by jason_steakums at 12:55 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
It can't help that his big splash was forever ago in election cycle terms and tied so specifically to opposing Ryan, with the whole David v Goliath appeal.
posted by jason_steakums at 12:55 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
How much would we have to pay Chrysostom to move to Broward County, Florida; get elected or appointed Grand Election Administrator Supreme; and fix their goddamn election systems once and for all? I pledge twenty United States dollars to this effect.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 12:57 PM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Huffy Puffy at 12:57 PM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
There is not a sufficient sum of money in the universe to induce me to move to Broward County, Florida, but thanks for the vote of confidence.
(no offense, Broward Mefites)
posted by Chrysostom at 12:58 PM on November 8, 2018 [26 favorites]
(no offense, Broward Mefites)
posted by Chrysostom at 12:58 PM on November 8, 2018 [26 favorites]
NBC: Progressives' Plan For Victory Just Took a Gut-Punch. Now What Do They Do?âThe Left has been eager to show it can build a winning coalition for 2020 and beyond. But that didn't happen in the midterms.
Weeeellll, it's not in the interests of NBC to say, "progressive policies are great! we should all move to the left".
But at the same time, I think there's some serious confusion about how elections work. I think a lot of people are confused about this. I mean, not that I have, like, a fully developed theory, but several things strike me:
1. A lot of people on all sides think that what should happen is "people advance an idea in the media a few weeks before the election, and if it is popular it wins and if it does not win it is obviously wrong, the end". No one talks about how actually change happens because movements get built outside of the election cycle to mobilize people, educate and develop policies, and how elections are only one tiny, highly visible part of that.
2. I cannot think of a single political struggle that got really active one year and then basically won all the elections the next. The national, widely understood push to change the Democratic party, alas, only really took off after Trump. Lots of people were working very hard in all kinds of organizations before that, but the mass momentum came in 2016. The state-level offices that people won are the foundation of bigger changes.
3. Victory breeds appetite for victory. All kinds of people now know that victory is possible and they're starting to notice the terrain of struggle. I don't think this is some kind of "the people crave centrism" deal; I think this is the opening of a big push left, because people have seen that you can fight and win, and people who didn't used to notice voter suppression because it did not directly affect them* now have it on their radar.
Of course, that's precisely why NBC feels they have to squash everyone's enthusiasm.
*I do think that the American civic religion thing about everyone voting and one-person-one-vote is powerful, and I think that in the long run we can win referendums on that and make change.
posted by Frowner at 12:59 PM on November 8, 2018 [28 favorites]
Weeeellll, it's not in the interests of NBC to say, "progressive policies are great! we should all move to the left".
But at the same time, I think there's some serious confusion about how elections work. I think a lot of people are confused about this. I mean, not that I have, like, a fully developed theory, but several things strike me:
1. A lot of people on all sides think that what should happen is "people advance an idea in the media a few weeks before the election, and if it is popular it wins and if it does not win it is obviously wrong, the end". No one talks about how actually change happens because movements get built outside of the election cycle to mobilize people, educate and develop policies, and how elections are only one tiny, highly visible part of that.
2. I cannot think of a single political struggle that got really active one year and then basically won all the elections the next. The national, widely understood push to change the Democratic party, alas, only really took off after Trump. Lots of people were working very hard in all kinds of organizations before that, but the mass momentum came in 2016. The state-level offices that people won are the foundation of bigger changes.
3. Victory breeds appetite for victory. All kinds of people now know that victory is possible and they're starting to notice the terrain of struggle. I don't think this is some kind of "the people crave centrism" deal; I think this is the opening of a big push left, because people have seen that you can fight and win, and people who didn't used to notice voter suppression because it did not directly affect them* now have it on their radar.
Of course, that's precisely why NBC feels they have to squash everyone's enthusiasm.
*I do think that the American civic religion thing about everyone voting and one-person-one-vote is powerful, and I think that in the long run we can win referendums on that and make change.
posted by Frowner at 12:59 PM on November 8, 2018 [28 favorites]
I want to protect that regional diversity that is strongest in rural America and is often strongest in low-population states.
Is that any less the case in the Canadian Maritimes or the smaller German states? Both have an upper house that overweights the representation of smaller federal units but gives more votes to larger ones: for instance, Saarland has three votes for around 1 million people, while Bavaria has six for around 13 million. For that matter, is it any less the case in France, an intensely unitary state that delegates regional administrative powers?
Regional cultural diversity depends on a lot of things, but it doesn't rise or fall on equal representation in the US Senate.
posted by holgate at 1:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Is that any less the case in the Canadian Maritimes or the smaller German states? Both have an upper house that overweights the representation of smaller federal units but gives more votes to larger ones: for instance, Saarland has three votes for around 1 million people, while Bavaria has six for around 13 million. For that matter, is it any less the case in France, an intensely unitary state that delegates regional administrative powers?
Regional cultural diversity depends on a lot of things, but it doesn't rise or fall on equal representation in the US Senate.
posted by holgate at 1:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Harvardâs Institute of Politics reports that approximately 31% of young people aged 18 to 29 turned out to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, an extraordinary increase over the 2014 elections and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:01 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 1:01 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
Oh LOOK. We might have a recount here in in the Florida Governor's race.
The last one broke my heart, but I am willing to go down that road again.
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 1:14 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
The last one broke my heart, but I am willing to go down that road again.
posted by Major Matt Mason Dixon at 1:14 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
Chrysostom: Harvardâs Institute of Politics reports that approximately 31% of young people aged 18 to 29 turned out to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, an extraordinary increase over the 2014 elections and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years.
This, paired with the fact that the Republican party is increasingly the party of older white people, is REALLY promising. There's a lot of room to improve youth turnout, and tear down racist, classist roadblocks to voting.
We stayed energized and angry for two years, we can do it for another two.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:19 PM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
This, paired with the fact that the Republican party is increasingly the party of older white people, is REALLY promising. There's a lot of room to improve youth turnout, and tear down racist, classist roadblocks to voting.
We stayed energized and angry for two years, we can do it for another two.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:19 PM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
What Tuesday tells us about the 2020 election
However, however, however, there were a bunch of uncontested races, including enough in Florida that could be enough to shift the margin, and there's a big difference between whether Trump is literally on the ballot or not.
But some good news, let's talk about sheriffs. HOW TUESDAYâS SHERIFF ELECTIONS DEALT A BLOW TO ICE
The short answer is this: Democrats received about 4.4 million more votes than Republicans on Tuesday, according to the most recent tallies from the Associated Press. Thatâs while votes are still being counted, including in the Democrat-heavy state of California.There's a good map in there of the shift from 2012 by district (I wouldn't pay too much attention to the CA ones until the votes are in though).
Unlike in 2016, though, those votes were also distributed in a way that helps the Democrats. That vote margin translates to a 290-to-248 electoral vote edge for the Democrat. That margin comes thanks to Democrats flipping four states that voted for Trump in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
However, however, however, there were a bunch of uncontested races, including enough in Florida that could be enough to shift the margin, and there's a big difference between whether Trump is literally on the ballot or not.
But some good news, let's talk about sheriffs. HOW TUESDAYâS SHERIFF ELECTIONS DEALT A BLOW TO ICE
In at least three populous counties, voters elected candidates who pledged to withdraw from the 287(g) program.posted by zachlipton at 1:22 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
Two of those elections were in North Carolina, where Garry McFadden and Gerald Baker were elected sheriff of Mecklenburg County, (Charlotte) and Wake County, (Raleigh), respectively. In Anne Arundel Co., Maryland (Annapolis), where Republican County Executive Steve Schuh chose to join the program in 2016, Schuh lost to Steuart Pittman, who campaigned on ending both 287(g) and a separate agreement that allows ICE to detain people at the county jail.
...
In Orange County, California, however, voters elected a new sheriffâDon Barnesâwho opposes the stateâs sanctuary law and helped put in place a new policy to circumvent its restrictions on cooperation between local authorities and ICE. In neighboring Los Angeles County, the sheriffâs election remained close as of Wednesday morning. Alex Villanueva, who was endorsed by the immigrantsâ advocacy group CHIRLA Action Fund for his promise to restrict the access to county jails that ICE has enjoyed under Sheriff Jim McDonnell, clung to a narrow lead.
We stayed energized and angry for two years, we can do it for another two.
One thing we can certainly count on is Trump providing reason to be angry and energized for two years... of course, that comes with all the, "be careful what you wish for", disclaimers imaginable.
And somehow, the broken equivalence of racist right being angry and energized for years simply because Obama was black makes me uncomfortable... but there it is.
posted by bcd at 1:25 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
One thing we can certainly count on is Trump providing reason to be angry and energized for two years... of course, that comes with all the, "be careful what you wish for", disclaimers imaginable.
And somehow, the broken equivalence of racist right being angry and energized for years simply because Obama was black makes me uncomfortable... but there it is.
posted by bcd at 1:25 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
I don't understand the desire to see the fact that not all the progressive candidates won their races as instead some sign of abject failure.
It's both-sides-ism. The mainstream media knows that "X won by a lot" or even "X worked its ass off to win" is nowhere near as interesting or clickbaity as "it looks like X won, but is that what really happened?!?!?"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
It's both-sides-ism. The mainstream media knows that "X won by a lot" or even "X worked its ass off to win" is nowhere near as interesting or clickbaity as "it looks like X won, but is that what really happened?!?!?"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
So, next November Virginia Senate is up. GOP currently holds a 21-19 majority. That comes to mind because:
posted by Chrysostom at 1:39 PM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
GOP-held Va. Senate districts that went for Kaine, per @vpapupdatesPair that with a one seat gain in the House of Delegates, and Democrats have a trifecta in Virginia.
SD10 - Sturtevant - 60.4%
SD13 - Black - 58.3%
SD12 - Dunnavant - 56.5%
SD7 - Wagner - 55.6%
SD17 - Reeves - 52.2%
SD8 - DeSteph - 51.3%
posted by Chrysostom at 1:39 PM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
It's both-sides-ism. The mainstream media knows that "X won by a lot" or even "X worked its ass off to win" is nowhere near as interesting or clickbaity as "it looks like X won, but is that what really happened?!?!?"
Plus, as Frowner already mentioned, the "liberal" media is still a multi-billion for-profit enterprise and they aren't about to start rolling out the red [heh] carpet for anything that challenges capitalism. And they have about 3 Dem narratives they recycle: 1. Disarray! 2. They owned themselves by Going Too Far Left! and 3. They're fired up, but probably doomed by their unpopularity!
posted by Kitty Stardust at 1:40 PM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
Plus, as Frowner already mentioned, the "liberal" media is still a multi-billion for-profit enterprise and they aren't about to start rolling out the red [heh] carpet for anything that challenges capitalism. And they have about 3 Dem narratives they recycle: 1. Disarray! 2. They owned themselves by Going Too Far Left! and 3. They're fired up, but probably doomed by their unpopularity!
posted by Kitty Stardust at 1:40 PM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
I'm expecting Republicans to go all-in on defending those majorities. They got caught napping in 2017 and will want to gather some momentum going into 2020, plus what else are they going to spend on in an off-year?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:44 PM on November 8, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:44 PM on November 8, 2018
I feel pretty confident about it, fwiw, but only time will tell.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:53 PM on November 8, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 1:53 PM on November 8, 2018
Crooked Media/Vote Save America has put together a fund through Act Blue to support multiple candidates recount efforts.
posted by gladly at 1:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by gladly at 1:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Tyranny of the minority is far worse than tyranny of the majority. States representing just 18% of the US population have enough representation for a Senate majority, and the ability to fundamentally thwart the will of the other 82% (as well as doing things like confirming conservative extremist judges who will repeal Roe v Wade and strip civil protections from LGBT Americans). I don't really care if you "value the cultural diversity of places with smaller populations", that isn't really an acceptable outcome.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:04 PM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:04 PM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
@MarkHarrisNYC. âA lot of people went to bed on Tuesday night thinking the Democrats would pick up 28-30 House seats. It now looks more like 35-37. That seems pretty Blue Wavey to me.â
posted by The Whelk at 2:05 PM on November 8, 2018 [47 favorites]
posted by The Whelk at 2:05 PM on November 8, 2018 [47 favorites]
Oh LOOK. We might have a recount here in in the Florida Governor's race.
And as though on cue, Marco Rubio has posted a conspiracy-minded tweetstormâ"Long but IMPORTANT THREAT{sic?} ON ELECTIONS IN #FLORIDA." He's worried that "democrat lawyers are descending on #Florida [...] to come here & try to steal a seat in the U.S. Senate & Florida Cabinet".
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:08 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
And as though on cue, Marco Rubio has posted a conspiracy-minded tweetstormâ"Long but IMPORTANT THREAT{sic?} ON ELECTIONS IN #FLORIDA." He's worried that "democrat lawyers are descending on #Florida [...] to come here & try to steal a seat in the U.S. Senate & Florida Cabinet".
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:08 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
As they finished counting in Montana, the near-final result has Tester at 50.1%, which should hold as the votes left to be counted are in Gallatin county, where Tester is comfortably ahead. If it does hold, this will be the first time he's won a majority of the vote, rather than a plurality, in a senate election. In 2006 he won with 49.2%, and in 2012 with 48.6%.
posted by Kattullus at 2:12 PM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 2:12 PM on November 8, 2018 [18 favorites]
A lot of these places hadn't had a real progressive candidate in decades, and the Dems had been half-heartedly putting up bowls of rice pudding for the Republicans to stomp on.
This. We saw contests. Very few uncontested and a lot of goodwill. This was successful from many, many angles. Thank you all for pointing those things out.
And if Trump has done anything, it's to make the case that corporate news is not helping. We reeeeeally don't want to stop tuning in, but they aren't going to help us, ever. So. C'mon podcasts! Let's go Newsfilter! *knock knock* 2020 in five minutes! Going to camera two in five ... four ... three ...
posted by petebest at 2:23 PM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
This. We saw contests. Very few uncontested and a lot of goodwill. This was successful from many, many angles. Thank you all for pointing those things out.
And if Trump has done anything, it's to make the case that corporate news is not helping. We reeeeeally don't want to stop tuning in, but they aren't going to help us, ever. So. C'mon podcasts! Let's go Newsfilter! *knock knock* 2020 in five minutes! Going to camera two in five ... four ... three ...
posted by petebest at 2:23 PM on November 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
He's worried that "democrat lawyers are descending on #Florida [...] to come here & try to steal a seat in the U.S. Senate & Florida Cabinet".
I guess it's only ok when Republican lawyers descend on Florida to steal the presidency.
posted by chris24 at 2:35 PM on November 8, 2018 [35 favorites]
I guess it's only ok when Republican lawyers descend on Florida to steal the presidency.
posted by chris24 at 2:35 PM on November 8, 2018 [35 favorites]
Be ye it known that I am dedicating my life to getting Cory Fucking Gardner (R-Coward) defeated in Colorado in 2020.
Hear, hear!
posted by medusa at 2:44 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Hear, hear!
posted by medusa at 2:44 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
The 2000 election in Florida is old enough to vote now so I guess it decided to send a message at the ballot box.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 2:45 PM on November 8, 2018 [25 favorites]
posted by Huffy Puffy at 2:45 PM on November 8, 2018 [25 favorites]
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Democratic candidate Nikki Fried is pulling ahead! Dare I hope? This would be huge because in FL, the Ag. Commissioner oversees concealed weapons permits, and Fried has already told the NRA to eat a bag of dicks.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 2:46 PM on November 8, 2018 [31 favorites]
posted by Kitty Stardust at 2:46 PM on November 8, 2018 [31 favorites]
Be ye it known that I am dedicating my life to getting Cory Fucking Gardner (R-Coward) defeated in Colorado in 2020.
Yeah, I'll throw in for that.
posted by rewil at 2:49 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Yeah, I'll throw in for that.
posted by rewil at 2:49 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
"democrat lawyers are descending on #FloridaWell, duh. It's getting cold in New York this time of year.
posted by schmod at 2:49 PM on November 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
This, paired with the fact that the Republican party is increasingly the party of older white people, is REALLY promising.
And many of them will have gone to their reward by 2020.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:55 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
And many of them will have gone to their reward by 2020.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:55 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
I guess it's only ok when Republican lawyers descend on Florida to steal the presidency.
Including future Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [10 favorites]
Including future Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [10 favorites]
Gillum unconcedes.
There's been a pretty herculean effort of emergency texts and phone calls to VBM/provisional voters in Florida before tonight's deadline, the Broward County ballot design problem in the Senate race, and the legal challenges. There's a whole largely uncredited infrastructure that was waiting for this moment.
posted by zachlipton at 3:13 PM on November 8, 2018 [38 favorites]
There's been a pretty herculean effort of emergency texts and phone calls to VBM/provisional voters in Florida before tonight's deadline, the Broward County ballot design problem in the Senate race, and the legal challenges. There's a whole largely uncredited infrastructure that was waiting for this moment.
posted by zachlipton at 3:13 PM on November 8, 2018 [38 favorites]
A Democratic candidate unconcedes. There's a design problem with the ballot. There's a recount. And legal challenges. Oh, 2000, I missed you so!
posted by kirkaracha at 3:16 PM on November 8, 2018 [39 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 3:16 PM on November 8, 2018 [39 favorites]
did...did the universe just fold back on itself so we can fix the timeline??
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [65 favorites]
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [65 favorites]
I mean, California just voted for permanent DST, but I'll admit I didn't read the legal text of the ballot measure. Maybe there was a drafting law and we set the clocks back to 2000 by mistake? Sorry 'bout that.
posted by zachlipton at 3:21 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by zachlipton at 3:21 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
chokers, spaghetti-strap tanktops, and bucket hats are all back too
the sins of the past don't really get mended, they just show up again once everyone forgot how bad they were. it's your standard issue trend cycle. like vaccine preventable childhood diseases, and nazis.
posted by halation at 3:23 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
the sins of the past don't really get mended, they just show up again once everyone forgot how bad they were. it's your standard issue trend cycle. like vaccine preventable childhood diseases, and nazis.
posted by halation at 3:23 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Gillum unconcedes.
I'll bet Ron DeSantis is going to get pretty snippy about this...
posted by The Tensor at 3:23 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I'll bet Ron DeSantis is going to get pretty snippy about this...
posted by The Tensor at 3:23 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I'm so there for ousting Cory Fucking Gardner. I want a week or so to catch my breath, but it's probably not happening since tonight I'm going to the rapid response protest at City Hall and then on to a book group on White Fragility (by Robin D'Angelo), but we've been talking about this in CO for a while. We're ready. He's got a huge fight ahead of him.
FL recounts, huh?
posted by danielleh at 3:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
FL recounts, huh?
posted by danielleh at 3:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
"abolish ICE,"
Can we please re-brand this "Repeal and Replace ICE"? TYVM.
posted by mikelieman at 3:58 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
Can we please re-brand this "Repeal and Replace ICE"? TYVM.
posted by mikelieman at 3:58 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
I guess the lesson from the professional pundits and think-tank talking heads is that because the underdog did not clearly win the World Series of politics, we should have run the other candidates, the ones that did not win the primary election, raise millions of dollars, organized legal resistance to voter suppression, campaign across the state, or came within 1% of defeating a Republican machine that's enjoyed 10-point victories or uncontested races for decades.
Part of my fury about this argument is that I've had to leave ballots blank most of my voting life because big-picture Democratic party wonks didn't even file candidates for offices from Senate to County Dogcatcher.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 3:58 PM on November 8, 2018 [24 favorites]
Part of my fury about this argument is that I've had to leave ballots blank most of my voting life because big-picture Democratic party wonks didn't even file candidates for offices from Senate to County Dogcatcher.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 3:58 PM on November 8, 2018 [24 favorites]
If y'all don't like that candidates who did run, better luck next primary.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 3:59 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 3:59 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Oh goody, I still lived in Italy in 2000 and missed all the actual recount excitement. What luck, living in the here and now! (Sob).
But seriously, how is this process going to be any different? I saw a tweet from a teacher who found a still sealed box of provisional ballots left behind in her school. Who is responsible for that fraud- I mean, mistake?
posted by lydhre at 4:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
But seriously, how is this process going to be any different? I saw a tweet from a teacher who found a still sealed box of provisional ballots left behind in her school. Who is responsible for that fraud- I mean, mistake?
posted by lydhre at 4:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Spoiler alert: 2000 didn't turn out well.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:08 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:08 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Ooooooh boy
BREAKING:posted by schadenfrau at 4:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [49 favorites]
@kyrstensinema
is now ahead by 2,000 votes in AZ Senate race. We continue to fight for every vote to count.
@Kyle Griffin:
According to the Arizona Secretary of State website, Sinema (D) now leads McSally (R) by a little over 2000 votes.
Sinema: 914,243 â 48.91%
McSally: 912,137 â 48.80%
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:20 PM on November 8, 2018 [27 favorites]
According to the Arizona Secretary of State website, Sinema (D) now leads McSally (R) by a little over 2000 votes.
Sinema: 914,243 â 48.91%
McSally: 912,137 â 48.80%
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:20 PM on November 8, 2018 [27 favorites]
I don't even know why people in close races concede on election night. It makes no sense. Count every last vote.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:28 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:28 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
I'm not happy at all that white, religious America is overrepresented by the demographics of these small states. Not at all. But I'd like to see a way around this problem that doesn't result in an America captured by the coastal megacities.
Are you sure the risk of "capture" is a real thing, and not something that has been ginned up by White, Christian prejudice? I find it hard to imagine what "capture" would amount to, or why it would be worse than the effective disenfranchisement of Americans in New York and California.
It's not even as if the interests of rural Americans are actually protected by their hyper-representation in the Senate. Those small-state senators joined in the attempts to kill Obamacare, despite the fact that their constituents would have benefited at least as much as urban Americans. They certainly didn't attempt to secure (e.g.) more hospital funding along with their support. And these senators, possibly reflecting the prejudices of the majority of their constituents, seem to be core votes against protecting the rights of women, LGBT, and ethnic and racial minorities. These voices in particular would be strengthened by dismantling geographic over-representation and giving equal representation to rural minorities' allies in the cities.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:52 PM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
Are you sure the risk of "capture" is a real thing, and not something that has been ginned up by White, Christian prejudice? I find it hard to imagine what "capture" would amount to, or why it would be worse than the effective disenfranchisement of Americans in New York and California.
It's not even as if the interests of rural Americans are actually protected by their hyper-representation in the Senate. Those small-state senators joined in the attempts to kill Obamacare, despite the fact that their constituents would have benefited at least as much as urban Americans. They certainly didn't attempt to secure (e.g.) more hospital funding along with their support. And these senators, possibly reflecting the prejudices of the majority of their constituents, seem to be core votes against protecting the rights of women, LGBT, and ethnic and racial minorities. These voices in particular would be strengthened by dismantling geographic over-representation and giving equal representation to rural minorities' allies in the cities.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:52 PM on November 8, 2018 [29 favorites]
@sahilkapur: Jon Tester's victory is all the more remarkable considering that he voted NO on the tax law, ACA repeal, Trump's immigration plan, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Montana is a Trump+20 state.
@AJentleson: This one goes out to all the baseball nerds, but if there was a Wins Above Replacement measurement for senators, Tester might have the highest score.
posted by zachlipton at 5:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
@AJentleson: This one goes out to all the baseball nerds, but if there was a Wins Above Replacement measurement for senators, Tester might have the highest score.
posted by zachlipton at 5:00 PM on November 8, 2018 [32 favorites]
Montana is a Trump+20 state.
And Obama was 2.5 points (11,000 votes) from winning it in 2008. It's a weird place.
posted by Rust Moranis at 5:09 PM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
And Obama was 2.5 points (11,000 votes) from winning it in 2008. It's a weird place.
posted by Rust Moranis at 5:09 PM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
Sinema's lead is growing by the minute. From minuscule to still minuscule! It has grown in the last hour from 2k to 9k!
posted by Justinian at 5:17 PM on November 8, 2018 [28 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 5:17 PM on November 8, 2018 [28 favorites]
Arizona SoS is also narrowing, winning that could really help put McCain's seat in play in 2020 without overt suppression of latino votes.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [16 favorites]
From Digg: Every Single Candidate Logo From The 2018 Elections, In One Place
posted by growabrain at 5:41 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 5:41 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
And Obama was 2.5 points (11,000 votes) from winning it in 2008. It's a weird place.
Montana is nearly as wide as Texasâit took me two freakin' weeks to cross by bicycle this past summerâthe entire state has a smaller population than the Seattle area, and a long running tradition of being fairly evenly split politically. It's not the least bit odd that it seesaws back and forth. We all just assume the place is hopelessly conservative, but it really isn't.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 5:48 PM on November 8, 2018 [21 favorites]
Montana is nearly as wide as Texasâit took me two freakin' weeks to cross by bicycle this past summerâthe entire state has a smaller population than the Seattle area, and a long running tradition of being fairly evenly split politically. It's not the least bit odd that it seesaws back and forth. We all just assume the place is hopelessly conservative, but it really isn't.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 5:48 PM on November 8, 2018 [21 favorites]
Fingers crossed that Sinema pulls this out. The reason it jumped from 2k to 9k is because Pima County reported todayâs totals a little while after Maricopa did. Pima is mostly blue but especially the Tucson area.
posted by azpenguin at 5:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 5:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
I said yesterday that it seemed like CA was underperforming on the seat flips but I should not have doubted. We take so damn long to count and the ballots become increasingly Democratic as the count continues (apparently Democrats are huge procrastinators) that it seemed like we were gonna come up short on a bunch of seats that now seem likely to flip.
Yay California.
posted by Justinian at 6:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Yay California.
posted by Justinian at 6:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
CA-48 update:
Rouda (D): 98,259 (51.2%)
Rohrabacher (R): 93,503 (48.8%)
This is a Rouda gain of about 1500 over yesterdayâs spread.
(This could take a few weeks; No jinxy talk.)
posted by notyou at 6:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [17 favorites]
Rouda (D): 98,259 (51.2%)
Rohrabacher (R): 93,503 (48.8%)
This is a Rouda gain of about 1500 over yesterdayâs spread.
(This could take a few weeks; No jinxy talk.)
posted by notyou at 6:18 PM on November 8, 2018 [17 favorites]
My partner chooses vote by mail but doesnât get around to actually filling it out until the night before, and I deliver it to the precinct when I vote in person (I enjoy voting in person!). So maybe lots more Californians vote like my partner does.
posted by notyou at 6:22 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by notyou at 6:22 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think the late California count usually is like 2.5% left of the count on E Day, but obviously, that could vary.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:24 PM on November 8, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 6:24 PM on November 8, 2018
While I'm thinking of Virginia, the HOD districts where Kaine won:
posted by Chrysostom at 6:26 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
HD94 - Yancey - 58.5%Obviously, Stewart was a really extreme candidate, but this seems to bode pretty well for 2019.
HD40 - Hugo - 58.1%
HD28 - Thomas - 54.9%
HD100 - Bloxom - 54.4%
HD27 - Robinson - 54.1%
HD84 - Davis - 52.9%
HD62 - Ingram - 52.6%
HD83 - Stolle - 51.2%
HD76 - Chris Jones - 51.1%
posted by Chrysostom at 6:26 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Can anyone with Ohio knowledge speak a little to what happened with Cordray? It was looking quite close, and he had a slight edge in the polls, and then nope. There was record midterm turnout, which would ordinarily favor Democrats (Cordray won more votes than Kasich, who previously won in a landslide), but the same Republicans who voted for Trump really turned out this time.
Sorry this is so far upthread, but here's my take from Cincinnati.
There had been 3 women (including Betty Sutton, who ran for Lt Governor) in the Democratic primary prior to Cordray entering. I don't know this for sure, but my sense is that the Ohio Democratic Party (ODP) basically leaned on the other candidates to pull out because "He's from the Obama administration!" ODP has a long, LOOOONG history of pulling shit like this ("hello upstart, no actually, please exit in favor of This Chosen One") and we always lose because of it.
To my knowledge, Cordray had virtually no door knocking campaign in Cincinnati. There is a tendency for Democratic politicians to take Cincinnati for granted ("oh they're all Republicans down there" - uh hi, we're not. Hamilton County Commission is now entirely Democratic after being Republican dominated for years) and rely on turning out everything north of Columbus between Toledo and Cleveland. Now I love northern Ohio, but you cannot win Ohio anything by neglecting southwest Ohio. I have no idea if there was door knocking north of here for Cordray. I canvassed with Planned Parenthood Votes Ohio, and we were supporting Cordray and the District 1 candidate (Aftab Pureval). I think there was a generic Democratic Party canvassing operation, but I think a lot of labor coalitions and other groups like ours were picking up the slack that Cordray's campaign probably should have been doing themselves.
My sense of Cordray is that even though he was part of the CPFB, he had a very wonky reputation, and not the fire in his belly that Elizabeth Warren does, or the blue collar rhetoric that Sherrod Brown is exceptionally skilled at deploying.
The other thing is that DeWine is a VERY well known name in Ohio politics, especially the Cincinnati area. Cordray simply didn't have the name recognition. And finally, some of the attack ads towards the end were pretty bad - accusing Cordray of allowing the rape kit backlog to accrue when he was in Ohio office. I never saw the campaign come out with a good response to that.
Honestly, whenever I look south to states like Florida, Texas, and Georgia, I burn with jealousy and rage at the incompetence of the Ohio Democratic Party. I want so badly to have a candidate to get excited about. I've been waiting since I was eligible to vote. It'd be nice to have a change.
posted by mostly vowels at 6:37 PM on November 8, 2018 [21 favorites]
Sorry this is so far upthread, but here's my take from Cincinnati.
There had been 3 women (including Betty Sutton, who ran for Lt Governor) in the Democratic primary prior to Cordray entering. I don't know this for sure, but my sense is that the Ohio Democratic Party (ODP) basically leaned on the other candidates to pull out because "He's from the Obama administration!" ODP has a long, LOOOONG history of pulling shit like this ("hello upstart, no actually, please exit in favor of This Chosen One") and we always lose because of it.
To my knowledge, Cordray had virtually no door knocking campaign in Cincinnati. There is a tendency for Democratic politicians to take Cincinnati for granted ("oh they're all Republicans down there" - uh hi, we're not. Hamilton County Commission is now entirely Democratic after being Republican dominated for years) and rely on turning out everything north of Columbus between Toledo and Cleveland. Now I love northern Ohio, but you cannot win Ohio anything by neglecting southwest Ohio. I have no idea if there was door knocking north of here for Cordray. I canvassed with Planned Parenthood Votes Ohio, and we were supporting Cordray and the District 1 candidate (Aftab Pureval). I think there was a generic Democratic Party canvassing operation, but I think a lot of labor coalitions and other groups like ours were picking up the slack that Cordray's campaign probably should have been doing themselves.
My sense of Cordray is that even though he was part of the CPFB, he had a very wonky reputation, and not the fire in his belly that Elizabeth Warren does, or the blue collar rhetoric that Sherrod Brown is exceptionally skilled at deploying.
The other thing is that DeWine is a VERY well known name in Ohio politics, especially the Cincinnati area. Cordray simply didn't have the name recognition. And finally, some of the attack ads towards the end were pretty bad - accusing Cordray of allowing the rape kit backlog to accrue when he was in Ohio office. I never saw the campaign come out with a good response to that.
Honestly, whenever I look south to states like Florida, Texas, and Georgia, I burn with jealousy and rage at the incompetence of the Ohio Democratic Party. I want so badly to have a candidate to get excited about. I've been waiting since I was eligible to vote. It'd be nice to have a change.
posted by mostly vowels at 6:37 PM on November 8, 2018 [21 favorites]
> None of my Republican voter takes are complex, because Republican voters aren't complex. (Sorry media!) White women vote for Republicans out of tribalism, same as white men. A lot of that "tribalism" is just racism.
Adam Serwer: America's Problem Isn't TribalismâIt's Racism
Adam Serwer: America's Problem Isn't TribalismâIt's Racism
In the fallout from Tuesdayâs midterm elections, many political analysts have concluded that blue America and red America are ever more divided, ever more at each otherâs throats. But calling this âtribalismâ is misleading, because only one side of this divide remotely resembles a coalition based on ethnic and religious lines, and only one side has committed itself to a political strategy that relies on stoking hatred and fear of the other. By diagnosing Americaâs problem as tribalism, chin-stroking pundits and their sorrowful semi-Trumpist counterparts in Congress have hidden the actual problem in American politics behind a weird euphemism. [...]posted by tonycpsu at 6:40 PM on November 8, 2018 [54 favorites]
I am not arguing that the Democratic Party or its members are particularly virtuous. A little more than a century ago, it was the Republican Party that was reliant on a diverse coalition of voters, and the Democratic Party that rode white rage to power. Rather, I am saying that when a partyâs viability is dependent on a diverse coalition of voters, that party will necessarily stand for pluralism and equal rights, because its survival depends on it. And when a party is not diverse, it will rely on demonizing those who are different, because no constituency exists within that party to prevent it from doing so, or to show its members that they have nothing to fear.
In the Trump era, America finds itself with two political parties: one thatâs growing more reliant on the nationâs diversity, and one that sees its path to power in stoking fear and rage toward those who are different. America doesnât have a âtribalismâ problem. It has a racism problem. And the parties are not equally responsible.
Eh, so, Rick Scott is asking state law enforcement to investigate the Broward county registrarâs office over their counting of the early ballots?
And heâs suing them and also Palm Beach County?
Oh boy.
posted by notyou at 6:52 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
And heâs suing them and also Palm Beach County?
Oh boy.
posted by notyou at 6:52 PM on November 8, 2018 [11 favorites]
And Trump chimes in:
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:53 PM on November 8, 2018 [34 favorites]
Law Enforcement is looking into another big corruption scandal having to do with Election Fraud in #Broward and Palm Beach. Florida voted for Rick Scott!Bush v. Gore is going to look positively civilized compared to how they want to steal the election in 2018.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:53 PM on November 8, 2018 [34 favorites]
Here's a long thread touching on the Ohio situation from Alec MacGillis.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:54 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 6:54 PM on November 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
The official Scott is accusing of stealing the election is Brenda Snipes, a Jeb Bush appointee.
posted by notyou at 7:04 PM on November 8, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by notyou at 7:04 PM on November 8, 2018 [10 favorites]
Ari Melber: Dems crushed Trump
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:07 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:07 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
My partner chooses vote by mail but doesnât get around to actually filling it out until the night before, and I deliver it to the precinct when I vote in person (I enjoy voting in person!). So maybe lots more Californians vote like my partner does.
Same (more or less)! I got a mail-in ballot, but I didn't look at it until the night before and realized they recommend mailing it by Nov 1 to make it in time. So I dropped it off at a polling station on Election Day.
posted by JenMarie at 7:15 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Same (more or less)! I got a mail-in ballot, but I didn't look at it until the night before and realized they recommend mailing it by Nov 1 to make it in time. So I dropped it off at a polling station on Election Day.
posted by JenMarie at 7:15 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
And there appears to be some consensus on this (via LA Times) (support your local news service with a subscription, especially if it is stepping up after being sold by Tronc):
posted by notyou at 7:42 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
The reason is simple: Early voters, often older white Californians who start mailing in their ballots weeks before election day, lean Republican, and later voters, many of them young and minority, tend to prefer Democrats.So there you have it.
posted by notyou at 7:42 PM on November 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
How do we deal with Republican voters like that?
We don't. We get out the progressive vote. We organize and share resources to get people registered and get them to the polls, because we outnumber them.
Sometimes, there's a way to reach individuals, but that's part of the social plan, not part of the electoral strategy. The electoral strategy is: register, postcards, text reminders, and rides to the polls. And follow that with: anti-gerrymandering laws, easier registration laws, stronger penalties for voter suppression.
And we squeeze them out.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:46 PM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
We don't. We get out the progressive vote. We organize and share resources to get people registered and get them to the polls, because we outnumber them.
Sometimes, there's a way to reach individuals, but that's part of the social plan, not part of the electoral strategy. The electoral strategy is: register, postcards, text reminders, and rides to the polls. And follow that with: anti-gerrymandering laws, easier registration laws, stronger penalties for voter suppression.
And we squeeze them out.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:46 PM on November 8, 2018 [30 favorites]
I got a mail-in ballot, but I didn't look at it until the night before and realized they recommend mailing it by Nov 1 to make it in time. So I dropped it off at a polling station on Election Day.
I always drop mine in on Election Day - once, many years ago, we mailed in our ballots and one of them was returned to us - the post office read the wrong spot as the address. After that, I don't drop them in the mail, although I've considered looking into whether we can deliver them early in person.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:48 PM on November 8, 2018
I always drop mine in on Election Day - once, many years ago, we mailed in our ballots and one of them was returned to us - the post office read the wrong spot as the address. After that, I don't drop them in the mail, although I've considered looking into whether we can deliver them early in person.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:48 PM on November 8, 2018
Rick Hasen recommends reading this paper, Edward B. Foley, A Big Blue Shift: Measuring an Asymmetrically Increasing Margin of Litigation for a detailed discussion of why Democrats do better as more ballots are counted, looking at the typical margins under which a post-election litigation effort could yield a shift in the result.
My city's election department sets up handy curbside tents at City Hall to collect ballots, so I usually do that, either on election day or the weekend before. If I turn it in on election day, it's sometimes taken at least four days to be counted.
posted by zachlipton at 7:51 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
My city's election department sets up handy curbside tents at City Hall to collect ballots, so I usually do that, either on election day or the weekend before. If I turn it in on election day, it's sometimes taken at least four days to be counted.
posted by zachlipton at 7:51 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
So, I had a weird thought reading the coverage in the link about Rick Scott. Nothing solid behind this thought or anything, it just popped into my head.
Scott doesnât just sound like someone who wants to be in the Senate. He sounds like someone who wants to stay out of prison.
posted by azpenguin at 7:53 PM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
Scott doesnât just sound like someone who wants to be in the Senate. He sounds like someone who wants to stay out of prison.
posted by azpenguin at 7:53 PM on November 8, 2018 [12 favorites]
The reason is simple: Early voters, often older white Californians who start mailing in their ballots weeks before election day, lean Republican, and later voters, many of them young and minority, tend to prefer Democrats.
And this is another reason why we should make it a moral imperative to vote early if you are at all able. Make room for those who can't or don't, freeing up lines and staff time, and spend your election day energy entirely helping others.
posted by chortly at 7:54 PM on November 8, 2018 [16 favorites]
And this is another reason why we should make it a moral imperative to vote early if you are at all able. Make room for those who can't or don't, freeing up lines and staff time, and spend your election day energy entirely helping others.
posted by chortly at 7:54 PM on November 8, 2018 [16 favorites]
I'm trying not to get my hopes up over Florida, but Scott wouldn't be this angry if there wasn't a chance there are enough uncounted votes out there to flip it, right?
posted by BeginAgain at 7:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by BeginAgain at 7:56 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
I think Nelson's hopes rest entirely on the Broward undervote. If it was a machine read error as his lawyer suggests he could pass Scott. If it was undervote due to bad ballot design Scott will almost certainly hold on.
posted by Justinian at 8:03 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 8:03 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Unless I've missed it, we still don't even know how many votes are outstanding, so I'm not sure we can say with any confidence what will happen.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:06 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:06 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Current FL votes as counted appear to be:
* Ag Comm: Fried [D] +2,915 (0.036%)
* Senate: Scott [R] +15,074 (0.184%)
* Governor: DeSantis [R] +36,211 (0.447%)
Ag Comm and Senate well within the 0.25% manual recount margin, which is where the action is. Governor still in the machine recount zone, which rarely moves the needle much. However, I think governor started out at like 1% gap, so it's clearly been moving, and we can still have hope.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
* Ag Comm: Fried [D] +2,915 (0.036%)
* Senate: Scott [R] +15,074 (0.184%)
* Governor: DeSantis [R] +36,211 (0.447%)
Ag Comm and Senate well within the 0.25% manual recount margin, which is where the action is. Governor still in the machine recount zone, which rarely moves the needle much. However, I think governor started out at like 1% gap, so it's clearly been moving, and we can still have hope.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Unless I've missed it, we still don't even know how many votes are outstanding, so I'm not sure we can say with any confidence what will happen.
Steve Kornacki in this thread seems to think that there aren't enough votes to overcome a 15k lead. He leaves wiggle room ("could be higher than usual") etc, but that's pretty normal weasel wording.
posted by Justinian at 8:14 PM on November 8, 2018
Steve Kornacki in this thread seems to think that there aren't enough votes to overcome a 15k lead. He leaves wiggle room ("could be higher than usual") etc, but that's pretty normal weasel wording.
posted by Justinian at 8:14 PM on November 8, 2018
Did someone mention Red Tide Rick Scott? He ran his Senate campaign as if he was suddenly an environmentalist. Meanwhile, his appointees were making a secret and possibly illegal deal to extend leases on land intended for Everglades restoration to Florida Crystals for growing sugarcane. The leases were due to expire this year, but will now go through 2027, which would further delay any Everglades restoration.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:15 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:15 PM on November 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Current AZ #s look to be:
Senate: Sinema [D] +9,610 (0.518%)
Public Instruction: Hoffman [D] +20,348 (1.108%) => This is a flip from election night, when the R lead
Sec of State: Gaynor [R] +19,763 (1.061%) => R still leading, but lead has steadily dropped.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:19 PM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
Senate: Sinema [D] +9,610 (0.518%)
Public Instruction: Hoffman [D] +20,348 (1.108%) => This is a flip from election night, when the R lead
Sec of State: Gaynor [R] +19,763 (1.061%) => R still leading, but lead has steadily dropped.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:19 PM on November 8, 2018 [7 favorites]
From Kornacki's numbers, it seems like the only way Nelson comes back is through the manual recount revealing that the unusually high number of undervotes in Broward was due to a machine-reading error rather than confusing ballot design (which would yield a Nelson windfall plus any movement from the statewide recount). Possible, but not exactly a sure thing.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:20 PM on November 8, 2018
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:20 PM on November 8, 2018
So far as I can tell the "machine error" theory is more of a hail mary hope than something for which there is evidence. The reasoning seems to be "we can't win unless there was machine error so maybe there was machine error." Which, yes, let's count all the votes and find out! But until they produce some evidence or at least their reasoning as to why it is more likely to be machine error than ballot design I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I have significantly higher hopes for Arizona. My expectation is that we win in Arizona but "lose" in Florida though my confidence level in that is fairly low.
On the other hand we should never forget; the margins of victory for Scott and DeSantis (if they hold up) are both considerably lower than the amount of voter suppression in Florida. They are not legitimate winners morally speaking even if our current legal system is complicit in such efforts.
posted by Justinian at 8:29 PM on November 8, 2018 [19 favorites]
I have significantly higher hopes for Arizona. My expectation is that we win in Arizona but "lose" in Florida though my confidence level in that is fairly low.
On the other hand we should never forget; the margins of victory for Scott and DeSantis (if they hold up) are both considerably lower than the amount of voter suppression in Florida. They are not legitimate winners morally speaking even if our current legal system is complicit in such efforts.
posted by Justinian at 8:29 PM on November 8, 2018 [19 favorites]
Scott doesnât just sound like someone who wants to be in the Senate. He sounds like someone who wants to stay out of prison.
I don't know, he's ducked all his legal troubles pretty easily so far. He only got interested in the Senate because Trump talked him into it. He's probably starting to recognize that Trump's a reputation-vampire & he's wondering if the hit to his future opportunities will be worth it. The MFer's already rich as hell. He could have a much nicer life just doing rich guy stuff without having to watch his back for Trump's inevitable shanking.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
I don't know, he's ducked all his legal troubles pretty easily so far. He only got interested in the Senate because Trump talked him into it. He's probably starting to recognize that Trump's a reputation-vampire & he's wondering if the hit to his future opportunities will be worth it. The MFer's already rich as hell. He could have a much nicer life just doing rich guy stuff without having to watch his back for Trump's inevitable shanking.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:31 PM on November 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Yeah, pRick Scott doesn't sound like someone with Steve Kornacki's confidence. And yes, as Justinian says, there's no way any election monitor would certify the elections in Florida and Georgia as free and fair.
(Just to add to the fuckery: remember that Article I states that "Each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members" and the Supreme Court wouldn't touch that with a ten-foot pole.)
This also feels like the 2016 playbook that was never used. As Preet Bahara said, it's danger time.
posted by holgate at 8:38 PM on November 8, 2018
(Just to add to the fuckery: remember that Article I states that "Each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members" and the Supreme Court wouldn't touch that with a ten-foot pole.)
This also feels like the 2016 playbook that was never used. As Preet Bahara said, it's danger time.
posted by holgate at 8:38 PM on November 8, 2018
Basically, my theory is - it's Florida. Nothing that could happen would surprise me.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:39 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:39 PM on November 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Here are some CNN exit poll numbers based on almost 19,000 interviews.
Despite the talk about a youth wave, it didn't seem to happen. Millennials out number Boomers but Boomers still out vote them by two to one. If you could turn that around, you could change the whole country because the kids who do vote are very Democratic.
Some highlights:
Whites vote 54% Republican.
Blacks vote 90% Democratic.
Latinos vote 69% Democratic.
Asians vote 77% Democratic.
White men vote 60% Republican.
White women split 50/50.
College graduates vote 59% Democratic.
Non-graduates split 50/50 but ...
White non-graduates vote 61% Republican.
Non-white non-graduates vote 76% Democratic.
So it isn't working class resentment -- it's specifically white working class that correlates with Republicans.
Income is no surprise, but a rather weak differentiator compared to education.
Income under $100,000 is 56% Democrat.
Income over $100,000 is 52% Republican.
Gun owners are 62% Republican.
Non-gun owners are 72% Democratic.
Catholics split 50/50.
Jews are 79% Democratic.
White Evangelicals are 75% Republican.
Non-whites and non-evangelicals are 66% Democratic.
Here's a real stunner ...
94% of Republicans think that Republicans would better protect pre-existing conditions. I guess outright lying works.
And another stunner ...
78% of Republicans think that casting of illegal votes is a major problem.
80% of Democrats think that voter suppression is a major problem.
Urban areas went 65% Democratic.
Suburbs split 50/50.
Rural areas went 56% Republican.
So my takeaways.
The kids still aren't voting.
White men are a big problem.
White non-graduates are a big problem.
White evangelicals are a big problem.
Republican lying about healthcare really works to motivate Republicans.
Republican fearmongering about immigrants really works to motivate Republicans.
posted by JackFlash at 9:02 PM on November 8, 2018 [40 favorites]
Despite the talk about a youth wave, it didn't seem to happen. Millennials out number Boomers but Boomers still out vote them by two to one. If you could turn that around, you could change the whole country because the kids who do vote are very Democratic.
Some highlights:
Whites vote 54% Republican.
Blacks vote 90% Democratic.
Latinos vote 69% Democratic.
Asians vote 77% Democratic.
White men vote 60% Republican.
White women split 50/50.
College graduates vote 59% Democratic.
Non-graduates split 50/50 but ...
White non-graduates vote 61% Republican.
Non-white non-graduates vote 76% Democratic.
So it isn't working class resentment -- it's specifically white working class that correlates with Republicans.
Income is no surprise, but a rather weak differentiator compared to education.
Income under $100,000 is 56% Democrat.
Income over $100,000 is 52% Republican.
Gun owners are 62% Republican.
Non-gun owners are 72% Democratic.
Catholics split 50/50.
Jews are 79% Democratic.
White Evangelicals are 75% Republican.
Non-whites and non-evangelicals are 66% Democratic.
Here's a real stunner ...
94% of Republicans think that Republicans would better protect pre-existing conditions. I guess outright lying works.
And another stunner ...
78% of Republicans think that casting of illegal votes is a major problem.
80% of Democrats think that voter suppression is a major problem.
Urban areas went 65% Democratic.
Suburbs split 50/50.
Rural areas went 56% Republican.
So my takeaways.
The kids still aren't voting.
White men are a big problem.
White non-graduates are a big problem.
White evangelicals are a big problem.
Republican lying about healthcare really works to motivate Republicans.
Republican fearmongering about immigrants really works to motivate Republicans.
posted by JackFlash at 9:02 PM on November 8, 2018 [40 favorites]
To quote someone from Twitter some months back: the decisive Republican is a guy in a small town who worked in a factory that got shut down and whose sister has an opioids problem; the median Republican is a dentist with a boat.
posted by holgate at 9:06 PM on November 8, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by holgate at 9:06 PM on November 8, 2018 [19 favorites]
Millennials out number Boomers but Boomers still out vote them by two to one.
Of course they do. They've had decades to figure out how the system works and how to participate in it. They know where their local polling place is, because it hasn't changed and they haven't moved five times in the last three years. They know what ID is or isn't required to vote. They know how to decide between candidates and measures, even if that's "I vote the slate recommended by my favorite newspaper." They know how not to get overwhelmed by too many choices. They may be retired; if not, they likely get vacation days; if they don't take one to vote, they know how to arrange their schedule in order to get to the polls. They have a car. They don't have a test in the morning. They are less likely to be worried about whether they can afford rent next month; they have the mental bandwidth to consider the ballot.
Kids aren't lazy; the game is rigged against them. It expects them not to start voting until sometime in their 30's.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:46 PM on November 8, 2018 [77 favorites]
Of course they do. They've had decades to figure out how the system works and how to participate in it. They know where their local polling place is, because it hasn't changed and they haven't moved five times in the last three years. They know what ID is or isn't required to vote. They know how to decide between candidates and measures, even if that's "I vote the slate recommended by my favorite newspaper." They know how not to get overwhelmed by too many choices. They may be retired; if not, they likely get vacation days; if they don't take one to vote, they know how to arrange their schedule in order to get to the polls. They have a car. They don't have a test in the morning. They are less likely to be worried about whether they can afford rent next month; they have the mental bandwidth to consider the ballot.
Kids aren't lazy; the game is rigged against them. It expects them not to start voting until sometime in their 30's.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:46 PM on November 8, 2018 [77 favorites]
Despite the talk about a youth wave, it didn't seem to happen.
We won't have really good numbers here until the Census data comes out in months and months, but there's some reason to think this got better. If CIRCLE's modle holds up, youth (18-29) turnout went from 21% in the 2014 midterms to 31% in 2018. Which, I mean, still isn't a number to be proud of or anything, and it's well behind a Presidential year, but it would be youth midterm turnout that we haven't seen since the 80s.
This is a case where organizers have been laying the groundwork for a long time, with efforts like NextGen registering 250,000 voters in 11 state. It's also a place where election law makes a big difference: same-day voter registration substantially boosts youth turnout. The structural barriers we have to voting all serve to heavily disenfranchise young voters.
posted by zachlipton at 9:50 PM on November 8, 2018 [28 favorites]
We won't have really good numbers here until the Census data comes out in months and months, but there's some reason to think this got better. If CIRCLE's modle holds up, youth (18-29) turnout went from 21% in the 2014 midterms to 31% in 2018. Which, I mean, still isn't a number to be proud of or anything, and it's well behind a Presidential year, but it would be youth midterm turnout that we haven't seen since the 80s.
This is a case where organizers have been laying the groundwork for a long time, with efforts like NextGen registering 250,000 voters in 11 state. It's also a place where election law makes a big difference: same-day voter registration substantially boosts youth turnout. The structural barriers we have to voting all serve to heavily disenfranchise young voters.
posted by zachlipton at 9:50 PM on November 8, 2018 [28 favorites]
Why Nancy Pelosi Isnât Guaranteed The Speakership - By Nathaniel Rakich and Perry Bacon Jr. for Five Thirty Eight
With almost all the 435 House races decided, we did a whip count of the newly elected or re-elected Democrats. Hereâs what we found: Pelosi does not appear to have 218 votes to become speaker, unless some Democrats backtrack from previous comments suggesting that they will not support her.posted by ZeusHumms at 9:50 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
...
Letâs finish by saying clearly: Lots of gossipy stories about internal Washington machinations ultimately donât matter. This one does. With Trump in the White House and Mitch McConnell in charge of an enlarged Republican majority in the Senate, the Democratic speaker will have a huge role in determining exactly when and how the party tries to constrain Trump, as well as how or if House Democrats try to work with him on major issues. The Democrats are also trying to come up with a strategy that will increase the chances that the partyâs 2020 presidential candidate will win. And the Democrats in the House will have a fairly diverse group both demographically and ideologically. So the speaker has to satisfy not only liberals like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York but also moderates like Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania. None of this will be easy.
I'd bet that Pelosi will say she'll only serve as Speaker for a transitional period. Her expertise as a vote-counter will probably be necessary to calibrate the new intake, but there's not going to be the same demands upon a Dem speaker as in 2008-2010 or even in 2006-8. I'd be looking at Ben Ray LujĂĄn as a possible option: he got lumped with the DCCC job because nobody else wanted it, Joe Crowley's gone, Linda SĂĄnchez's husband just got indicted, and the Dems need to start promoting Gen Xers with a decent amount of House experience. (The number of House Dems who are under 60 and were in office during the last period when Dems held the majority is... not large.)
posted by holgate at 11:13 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by holgate at 11:13 PM on November 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
You're probably right about Ben Ray, but I hope for his sake that he doesn't go for it. Folks in political circles in NM know he's got some dirt on him...
posted by joedan at 12:08 AM on November 9, 2018
posted by joedan at 12:08 AM on November 9, 2018
538 alum Harry Enten tweeted a thread about Trump's chances in 2020 that is just a little too long to fully quote here. He talks about approval ratings, shifting electoral college advantages, and the importance of who Dems select as their candidate. He doesn't talk about specific 2020 candidates, but reading the thread leaves me with the impression that Donald Trump's Kryptonite is Amy Klobuchar.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Greyhound racing was banned in Florida yesterday. Regardless of your views on racing, this means about 8000 hounds will be looking for homes in the coming months. They are wonderful, kind, sweet, and sleepy dogs, and in the wake of this please consider opening your home to one.
Twitter link, includes a picture of the best derpy doggo 14/10 need one now. Also additional info about adopting greyhounds.
posted by robotdevil at 2:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
Twitter link, includes a picture of the best derpy doggo 14/10 need one now. Also additional info about adopting greyhounds.
posted by robotdevil at 2:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
TX GOP heavily gerrymandered state House districts around Dallas. Now it backfired: they fell from 7 of 14 seats to to 2.
From upthread a bit, but worth noting that the current GOP gerrymanders (except for a couple of midcycle refreshes like in Georgia) were drawn after 2010, and were targeted against the Obama winning coalition of minority and younger voters. That's not exactly where Republicans are losing now, minority turnout is still down from 2008, and that's not exactly who they're losing with in 2018, they getting killed in educated suburbs where they were much more competitive or even winning reliably in 2008. Their cheating lines are not drawn to optimize the intensifying split between rural and cities, although there's obviously a lot of overlap still. Some of the Democratic strength in 2018 is likely attributed to things changing in 8 years, and no Republican in 2008 would've imagined that they would be getting absolutely blown out in places suburban Dallas and Fairfax, VA.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:57 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
From upthread a bit, but worth noting that the current GOP gerrymanders (except for a couple of midcycle refreshes like in Georgia) were drawn after 2010, and were targeted against the Obama winning coalition of minority and younger voters. That's not exactly where Republicans are losing now, minority turnout is still down from 2008, and that's not exactly who they're losing with in 2018, they getting killed in educated suburbs where they were much more competitive or even winning reliably in 2008. Their cheating lines are not drawn to optimize the intensifying split between rural and cities, although there's obviously a lot of overlap still. Some of the Democratic strength in 2018 is likely attributed to things changing in 8 years, and no Republican in 2008 would've imagined that they would be getting absolutely blown out in places suburban Dallas and Fairfax, VA.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:57 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
no Republican in 2008 would've imagined that they would be getting absolutely blown out in places suburban Dallas and Fairfax, VA.
Waleed Aly, writing in yesterday's Age, puts forward an argument that of the two fairly distinct camps that got Trump over the line in 2016 - the deplorables on one hand and those dissatisfied with globalist business-as-usual on the other - Trump's current overtly racist strategy appeals only to the deplorables; he's essentially ignored the other half of his constituency.
posted by flabdablet at 5:04 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Waleed Aly, writing in yesterday's Age, puts forward an argument that of the two fairly distinct camps that got Trump over the line in 2016 - the deplorables on one hand and those dissatisfied with globalist business-as-usual on the other - Trump's current overtly racist strategy appeals only to the deplorables; he's essentially ignored the other half of his constituency.
posted by flabdablet at 5:04 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Waleed Aly, writing in yesterday's Age, puts forward an argument that of the two fairly distinct camps that got Trump over the line in 2016 - the deplorables on one hand and those dissatisfied with globalist business-as-usual on the other - Trump's current overtly racist strategy appeals only to the deplorables; he's essentially ignored the other half of his constituency.
That take is slightly off; the overt racism may not be 100% of the motivating force for the other half, but they're definitely at the very least comfortable enough with it to not be put off from supporting him. The best you can say for them is that fascism is not a dealbreaker for them, and there are words, and prison terms, for people like that.
posted by Pope Guilty at 5:56 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
That take is slightly off; the overt racism may not be 100% of the motivating force for the other half, but they're definitely at the very least comfortable enough with it to not be put off from supporting him. The best you can say for them is that fascism is not a dealbreaker for them, and there are words, and prison terms, for people like that.
posted by Pope Guilty at 5:56 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
I'm kinda happy that the "Historic Senate Win" is down by one when actually counting votes in AZ, and may be a net-neutral when the dust settles in Florida, or a no-kidding win, in Missisippi!
Little Old Black Ladies do Facebook, too, assholes, even in the sticks, and their churches have busses whose drivers know where the polls are. Also, the southern 'burbs are finally sick of this shit, and *starting* to align urban, where they work, where it sucks to park and light rail is literally the devil to every Republican.
posted by Slap*Happy at 6:08 AM on November 9, 2018 [24 favorites]
Little Old Black Ladies do Facebook, too, assholes, even in the sticks, and their churches have busses whose drivers know where the polls are. Also, the southern 'burbs are finally sick of this shit, and *starting* to align urban, where they work, where it sucks to park and light rail is literally the devil to every Republican.
posted by Slap*Happy at 6:08 AM on November 9, 2018 [24 favorites]
TPM: Rick Scottâs Sudden Death Overtime Voting
posted by murphy slaw at 7:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [42 favorites]
Itâs a simple point. Democrats are concentrated in large urban counties. Almost everywhere in the country, these counties take longer to count the vote than more sparsely populated exurban and rural areas. Thatâs hardly surprising. Itâs not new. Weâre seeing it in Arizona and Florida. In fact, weâre seeing it across the country. Itâs just that those are states with Senate and governors races that remain undecided. If you stop counting the votes before the blue regions are done counting, that obviously helps the Republican candidates quite a lot. Thatâs exactly what Rick Scott is trying to do as of last night, just much more openly and brazenly than even Republican candidates have done in the past.rudy giuliani was pushing this last night on twitter. why do we have to keep counting votes in broward and palm beach when the rest of the state is done?
Governor Scott actually said this last night: âLate Tuesday night our win was projected about 57,000 votes. By Wednesday morning that lead dropped to 38,000 votes. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000 votes. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000.â
Itâs a remarkably candid statement. The red regions (mainly) are done counting. But as we count the votes in the blue regions, Iâm falling behind! Heâs now saying the voting has to stop now because of ârampant fraudâ for which there is not the slightest hint of evidence.
Given where the remaining vote is, itâs quite clear that simply counting the votes â not recounting, reanalyzing or litigating anything â will lead to Scott losing. So heâs using his police powers as governor to do everything in his power to stop the counting now.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [42 favorites]
Given where the remaining vote is, itâs quite clear that simply counting the votes â not recounting, reanalyzing or litigating anything â will lead to Scott losing. So heâs using his police powers as governor to do everything in his power to stop the counting now.
Ok, finance and insurance IT career here. We routinely counted 300,000,000 pennies ( 3,000,000 ) to the tenth of a penny ( fucking floating point ) several times a day, so I've spent years wondering, "What the fuck is so damn difficult about counting votes?"
Nothing, if you spend the money.
And we need to spend as much on elections infrastructure as we can, until we meet key process metrics. ( Using NYS as an example. National Standards should be mandatory, btw.. ) Time to register, Time to sign in and get a ballot. Time for exception processing, broken down by registration exception type. ( Moved, Mailcheck failed, etc.. ). Time to get a privacy table. Time to scan.
And then we need to have kpm's for post-election. Hand audit X% of polling locations, and frankly we should be able to deliver results in no more than 12 hours in 80% of the cases, 48 hours in 99% of the cases.
But until we make FUNDING OUR ELECTIONS a priority over CANDIDATE ADVERTISING, we're going to remain third world.
posted by mikelieman at 7:35 AM on November 9, 2018 [47 favorites]
Ok, finance and insurance IT career here. We routinely counted 300,000,000 pennies ( 3,000,000 ) to the tenth of a penny ( fucking floating point ) several times a day, so I've spent years wondering, "What the fuck is so damn difficult about counting votes?"
Nothing, if you spend the money.
And we need to spend as much on elections infrastructure as we can, until we meet key process metrics. ( Using NYS as an example. National Standards should be mandatory, btw.. ) Time to register, Time to sign in and get a ballot. Time for exception processing, broken down by registration exception type. ( Moved, Mailcheck failed, etc.. ). Time to get a privacy table. Time to scan.
And then we need to have kpm's for post-election. Hand audit X% of polling locations, and frankly we should be able to deliver results in no more than 12 hours in 80% of the cases, 48 hours in 99% of the cases.
But until we make FUNDING OUR ELECTIONS a priority over CANDIDATE ADVERTISING, we're going to remain third world.
posted by mikelieman at 7:35 AM on November 9, 2018 [47 favorites]
> Millennials out number Boomers but Boomers still out vote them by two to one.
Of course they do. They've had decades to figure out how the system works and how to participate in it. They know where their local polling place is, because it hasn't changed and they haven't moved five times in the last three years. They know what ID is or isn't required to vote. They know how to decide between candidates and measures, even if that's "I vote the slate recommended by my favorite newspaper."
This is some serious infantilizing of grown ass adults. Thereâs no question there is plenty of bullshit around voting and access that impedes the younger and less well off, but to shrug off the significant factor apathy plays in the youth vote not showing up robs them of agency they do have. The 18-30 crowd figures out a lot of difficult shit when they care to and they do things harder than determining where their polling place is. Ten seconds with google will now barf that up as easily as todayâs movie times. We owe it to democracy to make all these things easier but the youth vote has what it needs to double overnight with the addition of the tool known as âgiving a fuck.â We owe it to democracy to try to create a culture of giving a fuck but that horse needs to want to drink too.
posted by phearlez at 7:37 AM on November 9, 2018 [24 favorites]
Of course they do. They've had decades to figure out how the system works and how to participate in it. They know where their local polling place is, because it hasn't changed and they haven't moved five times in the last three years. They know what ID is or isn't required to vote. They know how to decide between candidates and measures, even if that's "I vote the slate recommended by my favorite newspaper."
This is some serious infantilizing of grown ass adults. Thereâs no question there is plenty of bullshit around voting and access that impedes the younger and less well off, but to shrug off the significant factor apathy plays in the youth vote not showing up robs them of agency they do have. The 18-30 crowd figures out a lot of difficult shit when they care to and they do things harder than determining where their polling place is. Ten seconds with google will now barf that up as easily as todayâs movie times. We owe it to democracy to make all these things easier but the youth vote has what it needs to double overnight with the addition of the tool known as âgiving a fuck.â We owe it to democracy to try to create a culture of giving a fuck but that horse needs to want to drink too.
posted by phearlez at 7:37 AM on November 9, 2018 [24 favorites]
that the ballot shenanigans and vote counting delays are happening in broward county after the 2000 election fiasco is basically proof that this is malicious neglect.
it's hard to prove though, because in cases like these, incompetence serves the interests of malice.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:38 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
it's hard to prove though, because in cases like these, incompetence serves the interests of malice.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:38 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
ballot shenanigans
can we not use a word with a primary connotative meaning of "silliness" to describe the deliberate acts aimed at stealing democracy from the people?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:41 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
can we not use a word with a primary connotative meaning of "silliness" to describe the deliberate acts aimed at stealing democracy from the people?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:41 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
feel free to substitute "skullduggery"
posted by murphy slaw at 7:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by murphy slaw at 7:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
The fact that every Florida Republican is suddenly characterizing a tally of mail ballots as "fraud" tells me they know most of those votes aren't for them. In my county, the Republican Supervisor of Elections claimed that there was no available list of voters who had submitted provisional ballots when Dem volunteers attempted to follow-up with their voters. Volunteers only had until 5:00pm that day to submit the "cure" affidavits, and were they were told there would be no way to generate such a list until the following day. The neighboring county, which contains part of the Orlando metro area, was able to generate a list for volunteers to chase down and "cure" ballots. We have an online interface to track mail ballots, but it only marks those as "received." They don't display "tallied" until SEVEN damn days AFTER the election, so if there's a problem with the ballot, the voter wouldn't know until it was too late. So, yes, lots of subtle forms of disenfranchisement are practiced in Florida. To Republicans, any votes that aren't for them are automatically "illegitimate." We're organizing a protest for later today.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 7:49 AM on November 9, 2018 [33 favorites]
posted by Kitty Stardust at 7:49 AM on November 9, 2018 [33 favorites]
This is some serious infantilizing of grown ass adults. Thereâs no question there is plenty of bullshit around voting and access that impedes the younger and less well off, but to shrug off the significant factor apathy plays in the youth vote not showing up robs them of agency they do have.
This. I first voted for Bill Clinton at the age of 18 and I've voted in EVERY election since. It's not that hard. As a parent, I made sure my daughter registered to vote before she even turned 18 and helped her sign up for a mail ballot when she went off to college.
What is hard is giving younger voters a reason to show up. Here in FL, Bill Nelson ran a campaign that was mind-blowingly bad. Rick Scott tarred and feather Nelson all day long everywhere for being a"do-nothing" candidate who had been in government for almost 30 years even though Nelson has been a fairly reliable vote against the Trump agenda. All Nelson's campaign had to do was run something that had 1/10 of the enthusiasm of Beto O'Rourke's and we wouldn't be talking about a recount right now. I don't know exactly what needs to happen to Florida's democratic party but it likely starts with cleaning house. FL is a red state for the foreseeable future until that happens.
posted by photoslob at 7:53 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
This. I first voted for Bill Clinton at the age of 18 and I've voted in EVERY election since. It's not that hard. As a parent, I made sure my daughter registered to vote before she even turned 18 and helped her sign up for a mail ballot when she went off to college.
What is hard is giving younger voters a reason to show up. Here in FL, Bill Nelson ran a campaign that was mind-blowingly bad. Rick Scott tarred and feather Nelson all day long everywhere for being a"do-nothing" candidate who had been in government for almost 30 years even though Nelson has been a fairly reliable vote against the Trump agenda. All Nelson's campaign had to do was run something that had 1/10 of the enthusiasm of Beto O'Rourke's and we wouldn't be talking about a recount right now. I don't know exactly what needs to happen to Florida's democratic party but it likely starts with cleaning house. FL is a red state for the foreseeable future until that happens.
posted by photoslob at 7:53 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
I'm a Californian who votes by mail. I force myself to fill out and send the ballot the weekend before election day, because otherwise the thought of having to research a billion different state and local propositions would lead me to procrastinating past the deadline... I'm fairly starry-eyed about democracy (even with it's flaws). If I feel this resentful about filling out a ballot, it's a wonder that voting participation isn't even lower in this state.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:59 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:59 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
What is hard is giving younger voters a reason to show up. Here in FL, Bill Nelson ran a campaign that was mind-blowingly bad. Rick Scott tarred and feather Nelson all day long everywhere for being a"do-nothing" candidate who had been in government for almost 30 years even though Nelson has been a fairly reliable vote against the Trump agenda.
Gillum picked up a lot of the youth vote by talking about issues that they cared about: climate change, student loan debt, $15 minimum wage, LGBT rights. Nelson has favored those things, but he didn't go hard enough to gain credibility. FL also has such a constant churn of workers, students, snowbirds and retirees that are moving in and out of state. It's hard to expect past actions to stick politically, for either good or ill. So Nelson's past work on environment and education was unknown to lots of voters. Same with Scott's fraud, corruption, and abysmal environmental record.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:02 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
Gillum picked up a lot of the youth vote by talking about issues that they cared about: climate change, student loan debt, $15 minimum wage, LGBT rights. Nelson has favored those things, but he didn't go hard enough to gain credibility. FL also has such a constant churn of workers, students, snowbirds and retirees that are moving in and out of state. It's hard to expect past actions to stick politically, for either good or ill. So Nelson's past work on environment and education was unknown to lots of voters. Same with Scott's fraud, corruption, and abysmal environmental record.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:02 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
What is hard is giving younger voters a reason to show up.
We kind of workshopped this among ourselves at our polling place on election day. I think we need a serious marketing push on "FREE VOTER REGISTRATION" and "VOTE FOR FREE" to utilize the existing buying triggers built into people, and "Never fuck someone who doesn't vote"
posted by mikelieman at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
We kind of workshopped this among ourselves at our polling place on election day. I think we need a serious marketing push on "FREE VOTER REGISTRATION" and "VOTE FOR FREE" to utilize the existing buying triggers built into people, and "Never fuck someone who doesn't vote"
posted by mikelieman at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
If were going to talk about Florida, Bill Nelson, and the youth vote can we go back to the CNN parkland town hall where he made it abundantly clear that he thinks of people in their 40s and 50s as "young"?
I don't know exactly what needs to happen to Florida's democratic party
Id start by asking what some of the 1.4M folks reinfranchised by Amendment 4 want to see in their elected officials.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [13 favorites]
I don't know exactly what needs to happen to Florida's democratic party
Id start by asking what some of the 1.4M folks reinfranchised by Amendment 4 want to see in their elected officials.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [13 favorites]
Ok, finance and insurance IT career here. We routinely counted 300,000,000 pennies ( 3,000,000 ) to the tenth of a penny ( fucking floating point ) several times a day, so I've spent years wondering, "What the fuck is so damn difficult about counting votes?"
Most obviously you, in your job, weren't counting a pile of 300,000,000 physical pennies. With respect to counting votes, you are to a large extent counting physical ballots.
You, in your job, also you didn't need to care whether the pennies were heads or tails; this is entirely the point of counting ballots.
You, in your job, also didn't need to worry about segregating all the dimes that were put in the pile of pennies.
You, in your job, didn't need to worry about which dimes in the pile of pennies were just errors and which were intended to serve as pennies.
You, in your job, didn't need to worry about who is entitled to put pennies in the pile of pennies.
You, in your job, didn't need to worry about whether this person who is entitled to put a penny in the pile of pennies put their penny in the correct sub-sub-sub-sub pile of around 1000 pennies, and to invalidate that penny if it was put in the wrong sub-sub-sub pile.
tl;dr: "It is easy for us to do X!" + "I assert some vague analogy between X and Y" virtually never means that Y would also be easy for you to do.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [32 favorites]
Most obviously you, in your job, weren't counting a pile of 300,000,000 physical pennies. With respect to counting votes, you are to a large extent counting physical ballots.
You, in your job, also you didn't need to care whether the pennies were heads or tails; this is entirely the point of counting ballots.
You, in your job, also didn't need to worry about segregating all the dimes that were put in the pile of pennies.
You, in your job, didn't need to worry about which dimes in the pile of pennies were just errors and which were intended to serve as pennies.
You, in your job, didn't need to worry about who is entitled to put pennies in the pile of pennies.
You, in your job, didn't need to worry about whether this person who is entitled to put a penny in the pile of pennies put their penny in the correct sub-sub-sub-sub pile of around 1000 pennies, and to invalidate that penny if it was put in the wrong sub-sub-sub pile.
tl;dr: "It is easy for us to do X!" + "I assert some vague analogy between X and Y" virtually never means that Y would also be easy for you to do.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [32 favorites]
Oh, and > 30 minutes end-to-end is a showstopper. We need to really meet KPM's here going forward.
posted by mikelieman at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by mikelieman at 8:03 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Most obviously you, in your job, weren't counting a pile of 300,000,000 physical pennies. With respect to counting votes, you are to a large extent counting physical ballots.
Actually, we were scanning, indexing and processing paper tax returns, and actually most of your points, we did have to address. But your point about the physical process is a valid one.
Which ( again using NY ) is resolved by using scantron ballots, stored in a locked ballot box. SPENDING THE MONEY to hand count audit a representative sample is again, just a priority thing.
Again, I reiterate. The only thing preventing us from doing this right is that using money for campaign ads is a greater priority than using that money to actually conduct elections.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm a NYS Elections Inspector, and work the elections. The machines we use boot into linux ( good ) and then run java apps ( not as good ), but IF we spend the money to do it right, it can be done right. The lack of Established Process for exception processing is a serious issue. You can't develop procedures without a budget to develop procedures.
posted by mikelieman at 8:07 AM on November 9, 2018 [20 favorites]
Actually, we were scanning, indexing and processing paper tax returns, and actually most of your points, we did have to address. But your point about the physical process is a valid one.
Which ( again using NY ) is resolved by using scantron ballots, stored in a locked ballot box. SPENDING THE MONEY to hand count audit a representative sample is again, just a priority thing.
Again, I reiterate. The only thing preventing us from doing this right is that using money for campaign ads is a greater priority than using that money to actually conduct elections.
FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm a NYS Elections Inspector, and work the elections. The machines we use boot into linux ( good ) and then run java apps ( not as good ), but IF we spend the money to do it right, it can be done right. The lack of Established Process for exception processing is a serious issue. You can't develop procedures without a budget to develop procedures.
posted by mikelieman at 8:07 AM on November 9, 2018 [20 favorites]
I think there's a lot of confusion surrounding the "disappointing" performance of progressive candidates. Some of them lost, yes, but some of them won, too. This has much more to do with the sclerotic nature of our election processes and less to do with the substance of progressive messaging. We don't have political parties in the sense that most of the democratic world does; instead, we have two big coalitions that hold absolute power over the ballot line.
If the federal government were more representative of the will of the people, we would have a parliamentary system with ranked choice voting with a resultant explosion in the number of parties. That way, the neoliberal third-way party (traditional Democrats) would win 30-40% of the vote, the socialist party would win 5-10% of the vote, the progressive party would win 10%, and they would form a coalition government and the socialist and progressive parties would be able to extract meaningful concessions from the Democrats or pull their support and thus collapse the government.
In this way, a small group wouldn't have to be clawing at this massive coalition representing 50% of voters, and thus if they fail in 2 years to completely transform it (as of course they will and did) it wouldn't be sold as a "failure". This kind of thinking only furthers the aims of the rich and powerful in this country.
posted by Automocar at 8:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
If the federal government were more representative of the will of the people, we would have a parliamentary system with ranked choice voting with a resultant explosion in the number of parties. That way, the neoliberal third-way party (traditional Democrats) would win 30-40% of the vote, the socialist party would win 5-10% of the vote, the progressive party would win 10%, and they would form a coalition government and the socialist and progressive parties would be able to extract meaningful concessions from the Democrats or pull their support and thus collapse the government.
In this way, a small group wouldn't have to be clawing at this massive coalition representing 50% of voters, and thus if they fail in 2 years to completely transform it (as of course they will and did) it wouldn't be sold as a "failure". This kind of thinking only furthers the aims of the rich and powerful in this country.
posted by Automocar at 8:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
This was meant to be an immediate reply:
I mean, you're right that American elections have always been run in a pretty half-assed way by individual counties, and that these could be made fully-assed with enough resources, but you shouldn't underestimate the difficulty of counting ballots. The delays you're seeing are mostly delays in processing ballots arriving by mail, and the final delays will be arguments about discernible voter intent in paper and machine ballots.
If you're saying that the biggest obstacle is that inertia behind half-assing it, I'll agree with you. I admit that I think I was really replying to some of your other/older comments, for which I am sorry.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:16 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I mean, you're right that American elections have always been run in a pretty half-assed way by individual counties, and that these could be made fully-assed with enough resources, but you shouldn't underestimate the difficulty of counting ballots. The delays you're seeing are mostly delays in processing ballots arriving by mail, and the final delays will be arguments about discernible voter intent in paper and machine ballots.
If you're saying that the biggest obstacle is that inertia behind half-assing it, I'll agree with you. I admit that I think I was really replying to some of your other/older comments, for which I am sorry.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:16 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
In happy news, supporters of QAnon have been filled with despair by the election results.
posted by clawsoon at 8:35 AM on November 9, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 8:35 AM on November 9, 2018 [23 favorites]
In happy news, supporters of QAnon have been filled with despair by the election results.
not sure that i'm happy that a bunch of clowns who inspired a dude to shoot up a pizza place are feeling desperate and out of options
posted by murphy slaw at 8:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
not sure that i'm happy that a bunch of clowns who inspired a dude to shoot up a pizza place are feeling desperate and out of options
posted by murphy slaw at 8:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
There are a bunch of efforts to improve the state of voting infrastructure (particularly software) in the US, including at local and state levels. I'm working on a small FPP now.
And mikelieman and any other people with relevant credentials, if you can be in downtown New York City (near City Hall) on Thursday Nov. 15th, the state Assembly's Standing Committee on Election Law, Subcommittee on Election Day Operations and Voter Disenfranchisement is holding a hearing on "Improving opportunities to vote in New York State ... To examine ways to improve access to voting, both in person and by absentee ballot, including through early voting and no-excuse absentee ballot reforms." (If you contact the analyst coordinating the hearing, and you have pertinent credentials, and stuff to say that isn't already on the agenda, you can probably get invited to testify. I've done that before.)
posted by brainwane at 8:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
And mikelieman and any other people with relevant credentials, if you can be in downtown New York City (near City Hall) on Thursday Nov. 15th, the state Assembly's Standing Committee on Election Law, Subcommittee on Election Day Operations and Voter Disenfranchisement is holding a hearing on "Improving opportunities to vote in New York State ... To examine ways to improve access to voting, both in person and by absentee ballot, including through early voting and no-excuse absentee ballot reforms." (If you contact the analyst coordinating the hearing, and you have pertinent credentials, and stuff to say that isn't already on the agenda, you can probably get invited to testify. I've done that before.)
posted by brainwane at 8:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
This is some serious infantilizing of grown ass adults...
This. I first voted for Bill Clinton at the age of 18 and I've voted in EVERY election since. It's not that hard. As a parent, I made sure my daughter registered to vote before she even turned 18 and helped her sign up for a mail ballot when she went off to college.
I'm certain that apathy factors in for some significant number of youth voters, but also consider that a lot of young voters probably don't come from voting families and definitely didn't have their parents help them figure out how to vote by mail. Your kid votes? Great! But you "made" her and "helped" her. You supported her. Other kids didn't/don't have that. It's not "infantilizing" to point out real barriers to youth voting and to work on ways to fix them. These claims, to me, sound an awful lot like the "well they should be more responsible!" grandstanding often made when people point out the ways students get ensnared by predatory loans or for-profit education scams. It's not infantilizing to argue that those with minimal financial education are being preyed upon there. They are. And it's not infantilizing to argue that the current system of voting in the US is stacked against many youth voters. It is.
posted by halation at 8:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
This. I first voted for Bill Clinton at the age of 18 and I've voted in EVERY election since. It's not that hard. As a parent, I made sure my daughter registered to vote before she even turned 18 and helped her sign up for a mail ballot when she went off to college.
I'm certain that apathy factors in for some significant number of youth voters, but also consider that a lot of young voters probably don't come from voting families and definitely didn't have their parents help them figure out how to vote by mail. Your kid votes? Great! But you "made" her and "helped" her. You supported her. Other kids didn't/don't have that. It's not "infantilizing" to point out real barriers to youth voting and to work on ways to fix them. These claims, to me, sound an awful lot like the "well they should be more responsible!" grandstanding often made when people point out the ways students get ensnared by predatory loans or for-profit education scams. It's not infantilizing to argue that those with minimal financial education are being preyed upon there. They are. And it's not infantilizing to argue that the current system of voting in the US is stacked against many youth voters. It is.
posted by halation at 8:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
If you assert that Nelson ran a terrible campaign and Gillum ran a fantastic one, please at least mention that Nelson actually got more votes than Gillum. And that's before allowing for whatever happened with undervotes in Broward.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:44 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:44 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Pleasing downballot news in North Dakota: Dems picked up 3 or 4 seats in the legislature. One of those was a Native American woman who defeated...the primary architect of the anti-tribal Voter ID law.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:47 AM on November 9, 2018 [63 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:47 AM on November 9, 2018 [63 favorites]
nelson ran a much whiter campaign than gillum :(
posted by murphy slaw at 8:48 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by murphy slaw at 8:48 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
you shouldn't underestimate the difficulty of counting ballots. The delays you're seeing are mostly delays in processing ballots arriving by mail, and the final delays will be arguments about discernible voter intent in paper and machine ballots.
I don't though. We, for processing NYS Paper Personal Income Tax returns, were required to run 24/7 with KPIs of 25000/returns processed per day, and 100% accuracy scanning ( if they had to put the pieces together on a flatbed scanner, that's what they did ) since the originals were destroyed, and NYS considered the scans official.
Then within a week, we needed to have every one one of those 25,000/day of paper tax returns fully processed, with remittance to NYS Dept of Tax and Finance.
The difference between what I did at the bank, and processing votes is this: In practical terms, your vote is WORTH LESS than a dollar bill.
I do not find that to be acceptable. And offer my experience as just an example of "It's really about treating each vote like a dollar bill"
posted by mikelieman at 8:51 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
I don't though. We, for processing NYS Paper Personal Income Tax returns, were required to run 24/7 with KPIs of 25000/returns processed per day, and 100% accuracy scanning ( if they had to put the pieces together on a flatbed scanner, that's what they did ) since the originals were destroyed, and NYS considered the scans official.
Then within a week, we needed to have every one one of those 25,000/day of paper tax returns fully processed, with remittance to NYS Dept of Tax and Finance.
The difference between what I did at the bank, and processing votes is this: In practical terms, your vote is WORTH LESS than a dollar bill.
I do not find that to be acceptable. And offer my experience as just an example of "It's really about treating each vote like a dollar bill"
posted by mikelieman at 8:51 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
And mikelieman and any other people with relevant credentials, if you can be in downtown New York City (near City Hall) on Thursday Nov. 15th, the state Assembly's Standing Committee on Election Law, Subcommittee on Election Day Operations and Voter Disenfranchisement is holding a hearing on "Improving opportunities to vote in New York State .
I'm actually IN ALBANY, and I can't make the trip BUT I will look into reaching out to a staffer in the the standing committee.
posted by mikelieman at 8:53 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I'm actually IN ALBANY, and I can't make the trip BUT I will look into reaching out to a staffer in the the standing committee.
posted by mikelieman at 8:53 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
In happy news, supporters of QAnon have been filled with despair by the election results.
I drink their tears like wine. But also, is there like some kind of mutual defense list we should be keeping so we can watch out for these people? Their strong desire for military tribunals and martial law is terrifying.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:55 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
I drink their tears like wine. But also, is there like some kind of mutual defense list we should be keeping so we can watch out for these people? Their strong desire for military tribunals and martial law is terrifying.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 8:55 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
So, there have been a couple different studies that indicate youth vote is heavily affected by "not knowing what the fuck to do." Young people are far more likely to vote when they've been taken to the polls by their parents from a young age and shown what to do. The citation is at home, but when you provide voting simulation opportunities to high-schoolers (like bringing in a voting machine and allowing them to practice voting) then turnout goes way up. Never doubt the power of shame in deterring voting. Civic education opportunities work. Example here, except imagine an actual machine paired with it, too.
And honestly, I can understand the embarrassment. You're walking up to a bunch of strangers and have to ask instructions on what to do and you know that most people who do this already know what to do and you feel like you're a big dummy who doesn't know anything. How many young people handle that situation well?
Also, I would really question the numbers for that exit poll as indicators of turnout. There is no way turnout among the 18-24 group was 7% and 25-29 was 6%. That would be the lowest in decades. Other estimates show as high as 31% for 18-29.
posted by Anonymous at 8:55 AM on November 9, 2018
And honestly, I can understand the embarrassment. You're walking up to a bunch of strangers and have to ask instructions on what to do and you know that most people who do this already know what to do and you feel like you're a big dummy who doesn't know anything. How many young people handle that situation well?
Also, I would really question the numbers for that exit poll as indicators of turnout. There is no way turnout among the 18-24 group was 7% and 25-29 was 6%. That would be the lowest in decades. Other estimates show as high as 31% for 18-29.
posted by Anonymous at 8:55 AM on November 9, 2018
I cannot speak to Nelson's campaign in Florida (I did vote for him in his first run for the Senate way back when when I lived in Florida!) but I did several days of canvassing for Donnelly's campaign in Gary. The ground game in Gary was very sad and it lacked any sense of positive energy, it lacked organization, it lacked any youth involvement that I could see (other than the paid manager from out of state), and it was very much a segregated experience. The paid staffers that I saw were white, most of the volunteers were black, and there was a palpable sense of the "divide" between management and volunteers. And treatment between volunteers that were white versus volunteers that were black. I noticed subtle racist comments and behavior on the part of one of the white staffers. It was a surreal experience and it has taken a few days to unpack the experiences and see them for what they were. I have had to work through my disbelief/shock and denial, and as that continues to happen I am realizing that some of the racism was not so subtle. That just hit me. Yes, some of the racism was not so subtle.
I hate losing seats to the Republicans, but I do love that old white Democrats are more and more being replaced by a variety of people from a variety of backgrounds and in a variety of locations that are not all massive urban environments. Lucy McBath's win in Georgia's 6th district gives me more hope and excitement than Donnelly or Nelson winning reelection ever could! And there have been SEVERAL wins like that this election cycle. I do not believe these wins are getting the attention they deserve, but that does not minimize their importance. This is the direction we are heading, and that is more important than where we are at in this moment.
posted by W Grant at 8:56 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
I hate losing seats to the Republicans, but I do love that old white Democrats are more and more being replaced by a variety of people from a variety of backgrounds and in a variety of locations that are not all massive urban environments. Lucy McBath's win in Georgia's 6th district gives me more hope and excitement than Donnelly or Nelson winning reelection ever could! And there have been SEVERAL wins like that this election cycle. I do not believe these wins are getting the attention they deserve, but that does not minimize their importance. This is the direction we are heading, and that is more important than where we are at in this moment.
posted by W Grant at 8:56 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
I always take my kids with me to vote, for just the above reasons.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:58 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:58 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
There will be an emergency hearing in Rick Scott's lawsuit over Broward County vote-counting at 3 PM.
But wait, there's more! Nelson is now suing the Florida Secretary of State, Ken Detzner, over the state's use of signature matching to disqualify mail-in ballots.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:00 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
But wait, there's more! Nelson is now suing the Florida Secretary of State, Ken Detzner, over the state's use of signature matching to disqualify mail-in ballots.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:00 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
I'm kinda happy that the "Historic Senate Win" is down by one when actually counting votes in AZ, and may be a net-neutral when the dust settles in Florida, or a no-kidding win, in Missisippi!
Mississippi's going to a run-off where the Republicans won't split the vote between two candidates.
That's not a win.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:02 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Mississippi's going to a run-off where the Republicans won't split the vote between two candidates.
That's not a win.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:02 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Seems like a long shot, but that could impact a lot of votes.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:03 AM on November 9, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 9:03 AM on November 9, 2018
I'll try to limit my snark about disappointment that seats where Republicans historically have double-digit advantages were lost by a nose. Don't want to be "divisive."
But, one dimension of a 50-state strategy (and why Republicans often do a better job of it) is that you force them to fight for those marginal wins, rather than coast to an easy double-digit victory based owning both the local culture and the machine. There's only one Trump and one Pence, and they spent election week campaigning for an office that hadn't flipped in 30 years.
And on the fundraising side, our dollars are the same as a New York or California dollar. Think about that in 2020.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:04 AM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
But, one dimension of a 50-state strategy (and why Republicans often do a better job of it) is that you force them to fight for those marginal wins, rather than coast to an easy double-digit victory based owning both the local culture and the machine. There's only one Trump and one Pence, and they spent election week campaigning for an office that hadn't flipped in 30 years.
And on the fundraising side, our dollars are the same as a New York or California dollar. Think about that in 2020.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:04 AM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
11 mins ago - View on Twitter
As soon as Democrats sent their best Election stealing lawyer, Marc Elias, to Broward County they miraculously started finding Democrat votes. Donât worry, Florida - I am sending much better lawyers to expose the FRAUD!
Ha ha ha ha! Like any decent lawyer is going to answer the phone for him. He's probably going to send Ratfucker Stone.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 9:05 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
11 mins ago - View on Twitter
As soon as Democrats sent their best Election stealing lawyer, Marc Elias, to Broward County they miraculously started finding Democrat votes. Donât worry, Florida - I am sending much better lawyers to expose the FRAUD!
Ha ha ha ha! Like any decent lawyer is going to answer the phone for him. He's probably going to send Ratfucker Stone.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 9:05 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
Literally every word out of his mouth is projection. I mean, in addition to the spittle.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:08 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:08 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
My god Republicans hate democracy SO MUCH.
posted by kyrademon at 9:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
posted by kyrademon at 9:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
Midterm Election Turnout Was Up. How Much? We Donât Yet Know.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
But, one dimension of a 50-state strategy (and why Republicans often do a better job of it) is that you force them to fight for those marginal wins, rather than coast to an easy double-digit victory based owning both the local culture and the machine.
Isn't that what Dems did? Go look at the Texas results. There were a host of seats that you would assume Safe R that came in at like a 5 point Dem loss.
Dems did not have a candidate in 3 House districts. GOP did not have a candidate in 39.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:15 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Isn't that what Dems did? Go look at the Texas results. There were a host of seats that you would assume Safe R that came in at like a 5 point Dem loss.
Dems did not have a candidate in 3 House districts. GOP did not have a candidate in 39.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:15 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Well, no surprise the MAGAchuds are pressing the attack against the Broward Supervisor of Elections, Brenda Snipes, a Jeb Bush appointee. She's a black woman, so expect Trump to lash out hard at her.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 9:16 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Kitty Stardust at 9:16 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
stopped clock jennifer rubin: Three days later: Hey, Republicans really did get clobbered
It turns out the 2018 midterm elections were pretty much a rout. Counting all the votes makes all the difference in the world.posted by murphy slaw at 9:19 AM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
In light of Trump's whining about lawyers, it's worth mentioning that the Gillum campaign has retained Barry Richard. Richard represented George W Bush in the 2000 election. So if it's a contest over who has the better lawyers for a contested election in Florida, Gillum's coming out on top.
posted by Uncle Ira at 9:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by Uncle Ira at 9:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
Come on. This idea that the vast disparity between young and old voters -- two and three to one -- is because voting is too complicated is ridiculous.
Young people figured out how to get driver licenses, many have passports, filled out job applications, filled out rental applications, file income taxes, register for and pay utility bills, all of which are many times more complicated than voting. The barriers to voting for the young are nothing compared to Native Americans in North Dakota or the African Americans in Georgia.
Young people failing to vote is a real problem and you aren't going to fix it by some gimmick that makes voting simpler. California already has automatic voter registration. Oregon and Washington have easy vote by mail. It hasn't made much of a dent in young people voting.
If you want to fix the problem you have to address the real issues and that is because the young feel disconnected from civic life, no responsibility for civic life, no benefit from civil life, no interest in civic life. The problem is a lack of motivation, a compelling reason to vote. Those are real issues and have to be addressed.
posted by JackFlash at 9:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [11 favorites]
Young people figured out how to get driver licenses, many have passports, filled out job applications, filled out rental applications, file income taxes, register for and pay utility bills, all of which are many times more complicated than voting. The barriers to voting for the young are nothing compared to Native Americans in North Dakota or the African Americans in Georgia.
Young people failing to vote is a real problem and you aren't going to fix it by some gimmick that makes voting simpler. California already has automatic voter registration. Oregon and Washington have easy vote by mail. It hasn't made much of a dent in young people voting.
If you want to fix the problem you have to address the real issues and that is because the young feel disconnected from civic life, no responsibility for civic life, no benefit from civil life, no interest in civic life. The problem is a lack of motivation, a compelling reason to vote. Those are real issues and have to be addressed.
posted by JackFlash at 9:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [11 favorites]
So if it's a contest over who has the better lawyers for a contested election in Florida, Gillum's coming out on top.
but remember, if the democrats hire the better lawyers and win, hiring good lawyers was cheating
posted by murphy slaw at 9:22 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
but remember, if the democrats hire the better lawyers and win, hiring good lawyers was cheating
posted by murphy slaw at 9:22 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
It should be a surprise to no one that Kris Kobach ran a terrible campaign, but the nitty gritty details, as written up by Hunter Woodall and Bryan Lowry in this campaign postmortem for the Kansas City Star, are still pretty amazing. Excerpt:
Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, struggled to pay his campaign staff on time and at one point lacked a working phone system at his Johnson County campaign office, according to GOP sources familiar with the campaign. And people who offered to volunteer were never contacted.posted by Kattullus at 9:27 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
âIt was the most dysfunctional thing Iâve ever seen in my life,â said a long-time GOP operative in Kansas.
Kobach trusted that his regular presence on cable news, dominance in headlines and the full-throated support of President Donald Trump would carry him to victory, strategists told The Star. He also expected independent Greg Orman to siphon more votes from Democrat Laura Kelly than he actually did.
Two weeks out from Election Day when polls showed Kobach in a tight race with Kelly, members of his senior staff did a walk-through of the governorâs office, according to a Republican source.
âIs there nothing else you can be doing with your time right now?â the source recalled thinking. âThe joke was, youâd say âthe Kobach campaignâ and (then) youâd say, âwhat campaign?ââ
stopped clock jennifer rubin: Three days later: Hey, Republicans really did get clobbered
Ugh, the final sentence. No, don't send Trump a fruit basket for enraging people to this point - learn from this moment about organizing, engaging, taking firm stances on progressive policies, and running hard everywhere. It's important, regardless of who is in charge - democracy works best when people get engaged.
posted by nubs at 9:27 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Ugh, the final sentence. No, don't send Trump a fruit basket for enraging people to this point - learn from this moment about organizing, engaging, taking firm stances on progressive policies, and running hard everywhere. It's important, regardless of who is in charge - democracy works best when people get engaged.
posted by nubs at 9:27 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Isn't that what Dems did? Go look at the Texas results. There were a host of seats that you would assume Safe R that came in at like a 5 point Dem loss.
Sure, I'm addressing a certain flavor of "disappointment" floating around.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:27 AM on November 9, 2018
Sure, I'm addressing a certain flavor of "disappointment" floating around.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 9:27 AM on November 9, 2018
The Rude Pundit: Random Observations on the Democrats Getting a Win and Trump Losing (Part 1)
Random Observations... (Part 2): How Crazy Will Shit Get?
(Warning: Extreme Rudeness.)
posted by homunculus at 9:28 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
Random Observations... (Part 2): How Crazy Will Shit Get?
(Warning: Extreme Rudeness.)
posted by homunculus at 9:28 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
I'm certain that apathy factors in for some significant number of youth voters, but also consider that a lot of young voters probably don't come from voting families and definitely didn't have their parents help them figure out how to vote by mail. Your kid votes? Great! But you "made" her and "helped" her.
For fuck's sake, I grew up in a highly politically active family. I marched in my first campaign rally in 2000, age nine, well before I was actually old enough or engaged enough to have any damn opinion of my own. My father was a Senate page and was actively being groomed for a Congressional career at one point before deciding he didn't want any part of it. I was encouraged to go into civil service to the point that I used to joke that being in biology was "avoiding the family business."
And I still had problems voting in my first election. 'Course, my parents knew damn well I wasn't voting for the same things as them, but no one exactly walked me through the process, and the advice they gave was to register myself to vote where they were and to get an absentee ballot. But I didn't realize that the ballot would be mailed to my parents' house and that I'd have to drive back to get it--in hindsight, duh--and I was a September kid, so I had to register a couple of months before the election and also I was in my freshman year of college and juggling that, and I got overwhelmed and confused.
This is why I wound up not getting to vote in 2008, even though I was excited about voting and wanted to vote and even though I turned 18 that year. I just couldn't get that absentee ballot in hand by election day, not without giving up other commitments. It was bad advice and I should maybe have been on top of things better--I certainly have regrets!--but 28-year-old-me, who has been voting since then (can't remember if I voted in 2010; definitely every election since) has a lot more experience with this kind of thing and a lot more life experience generally than college me did.
Jesus. You made your kid vote. My extended family made uneasy jokes about my vote and suggested that I not engage, and that was with me being the damn golden child; my cousin who was a few years older and voted for Obama that year got much more open criticism than awkward grimaces. You helped your kid sign up. I--do you know how absurdly foreign that is to my experience? I have a lot of sympathy for the undergrads I teach, and I'm really proud of them for coming out in droves specifically because this is new for them and hard for them. It's not apathy I hear from them, it's uncertainty and confusion about the process.
posted by sciatrix at 9:31 AM on November 9, 2018 [42 favorites]
For fuck's sake, I grew up in a highly politically active family. I marched in my first campaign rally in 2000, age nine, well before I was actually old enough or engaged enough to have any damn opinion of my own. My father was a Senate page and was actively being groomed for a Congressional career at one point before deciding he didn't want any part of it. I was encouraged to go into civil service to the point that I used to joke that being in biology was "avoiding the family business."
And I still had problems voting in my first election. 'Course, my parents knew damn well I wasn't voting for the same things as them, but no one exactly walked me through the process, and the advice they gave was to register myself to vote where they were and to get an absentee ballot. But I didn't realize that the ballot would be mailed to my parents' house and that I'd have to drive back to get it--in hindsight, duh--and I was a September kid, so I had to register a couple of months before the election and also I was in my freshman year of college and juggling that, and I got overwhelmed and confused.
This is why I wound up not getting to vote in 2008, even though I was excited about voting and wanted to vote and even though I turned 18 that year. I just couldn't get that absentee ballot in hand by election day, not without giving up other commitments. It was bad advice and I should maybe have been on top of things better--I certainly have regrets!--but 28-year-old-me, who has been voting since then (can't remember if I voted in 2010; definitely every election since) has a lot more experience with this kind of thing and a lot more life experience generally than college me did.
Jesus. You made your kid vote. My extended family made uneasy jokes about my vote and suggested that I not engage, and that was with me being the damn golden child; my cousin who was a few years older and voted for Obama that year got much more open criticism than awkward grimaces. You helped your kid sign up. I--do you know how absurdly foreign that is to my experience? I have a lot of sympathy for the undergrads I teach, and I'm really proud of them for coming out in droves specifically because this is new for them and hard for them. It's not apathy I hear from them, it's uncertainty and confusion about the process.
posted by sciatrix at 9:31 AM on November 9, 2018 [42 favorites]
stopped clock jennifer rubin: Three days later: Hey, Republicans really did get clobbered
Polls closed in Indiana at 6 pm local time (which was Central, in some cases). Donnelly went before the cameras to concede not long after that. Indiana was the exception to the rule on Election Night; Democrats had a bad day there. But I don't doubt that it helped cement the narrative -- Democrats are losers after all -- that the lazy media ran with. When all the while Democrats were proceeding to take the House back, among other major victories.
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Polls closed in Indiana at 6 pm local time (which was Central, in some cases). Donnelly went before the cameras to concede not long after that. Indiana was the exception to the rule on Election Night; Democrats had a bad day there. But I don't doubt that it helped cement the narrative -- Democrats are losers after all -- that the lazy media ran with. When all the while Democrats were proceeding to take the House back, among other major victories.
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Democratic wins in these 9 states will have seismic policy consequences
posted by Chrysostom at 9:31 AM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:31 AM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
Kobach trusted that his regular presence on cable news, dominance in headlines and the full-throated support of President Donald Trump would carry him to victory
It's almost as is the Republicans don't actually believe the media is liberal.
posted by Gelatin at 9:35 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
It's almost as is the Republicans don't actually believe the media is liberal.
posted by Gelatin at 9:35 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Also, on preview: lol at the idea that eighteen year olds do all that shit successfully without help, too, it's just that if they can't do it we make sure they do it and help them through the process if they don't. If you don't pay your utility bill or sign up for utilities or file your taxes, public bodies notice and come check in on you and find out what's going on, and if you can't give them a good reason--and if it's ignorance, the first time they usually will explain it--you're out on your ear. If you don't get a driving license, your parents' life becomes way more difficult--I didn't get my driver's licence because I wanted one, I got it so I could help shepherd siblings around, and my parents taught me how to go about getting that too.
Lol at the idea I got my passport by myself--my parents wanted to travel and take me with them, so they walked me through that process as a teenager; if young adults want to travel on their own later via something like study abroad, the study abroad office assumes they don't know and walks them through it.
Jesus.
posted by sciatrix at 9:37 AM on November 9, 2018 [23 favorites]
Lol at the idea I got my passport by myself--my parents wanted to travel and take me with them, so they walked me through that process as a teenager; if young adults want to travel on their own later via something like study abroad, the study abroad office assumes they don't know and walks them through it.
Jesus.
posted by sciatrix at 9:37 AM on November 9, 2018 [23 favorites]
honestly mostly I'm furious because most of my process of learning how to adult consisted of my parents, baffled, asking me in a faintly incredulous tone why I didn't know how to do simple tasks like change my flat tire when no one had ever bothered to show me how to do them once
not all of you have the kinds of parents who remember to help kids with stuff like that unless and until they're inconvenienced or in some way shamed by the kid not knowing, because they assume that "everyone" knows how to do those things and it's not like the kid is dumb, amirite
christ on a motherfucking crutch I'm pissed off right now
posted by sciatrix at 9:41 AM on November 9, 2018 [62 favorites]
not all of you have the kinds of parents who remember to help kids with stuff like that unless and until they're inconvenienced or in some way shamed by the kid not knowing, because they assume that "everyone" knows how to do those things and it's not like the kid is dumb, amirite
christ on a motherfucking crutch I'm pissed off right now
posted by sciatrix at 9:41 AM on November 9, 2018 [62 favorites]
If you want to fix the problem you have to address the real issues and that is because the young feel disconnected from civic life, no responsibility for civic life, no benefit from civil life, no interest in civic life. The problem is a lack of motivation, a compelling reason to vote. Those are real issues and have to be addressed.
Aside from the fact that the concerns of the young have always been ignored (possibly because they don't reliably vote!), and I know this sounds glib, I think a lot of young people have been exposed to harmful media in the last 25-30 years, at least.
Even as MTV was trying to Rock the Vote, Beavis and Butt-Head (whom I adore, to be clear) were making it cool to fuck up and disengage. South Park has spent the last 20+ years telling us that caring about stuff is for losers and that every issue is so gray that expressing or, god forbid, acting on a political position is pointless.
And the rise of Youtube personalities, troll culture, and targeted disinformation and propaganda in an age where media consumption is increasingly personalized and fractured means that it's hard to engage with people, and especially the young. It's hard to know what's true when there are so many voices shouting lies and so little exposure to institutions that should be trusted. When almost everything is clickbait, it's so difficult to know what's not that it's easier to tune it out and disengage.
posted by uncleozzy at 9:44 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
Aside from the fact that the concerns of the young have always been ignored (possibly because they don't reliably vote!), and I know this sounds glib, I think a lot of young people have been exposed to harmful media in the last 25-30 years, at least.
Even as MTV was trying to Rock the Vote, Beavis and Butt-Head (whom I adore, to be clear) were making it cool to fuck up and disengage. South Park has spent the last 20+ years telling us that caring about stuff is for losers and that every issue is so gray that expressing or, god forbid, acting on a political position is pointless.
And the rise of Youtube personalities, troll culture, and targeted disinformation and propaganda in an age where media consumption is increasingly personalized and fractured means that it's hard to engage with people, and especially the young. It's hard to know what's true when there are so many voices shouting lies and so little exposure to institutions that should be trusted. When almost everything is clickbait, it's so difficult to know what's not that it's easier to tune it out and disengage.
posted by uncleozzy at 9:44 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
Ugh, the final sentence. No, don't send Trump a fruit basket for enraging people to this point - learn from this moment about organizing, engaging, taking firm stances on progressive policies, and running hard everywhere.
No kidding. A lot of the public opinion Rublin cites in which people disagree with Trump were already basic tenets of the Republican Party even before Trump took it over.
Immigration? Republicans -- at least its so-called Tea Party wing -- are against it; a Republican Congress couldn't pass any immigration reform at all.
Tougher gun laws? Republicans are against.
I'll grant that "pissing off all our allies" isn't normal Republican foreign policy, but there's nothing special about Kavanaugh as a Federalist Society clone, and Senate Republicans lined up right behind him.
Repeal Roe? Republicans campaign on it, and work to restrict legal abortion in the meantime.
No side has a monopoly on virtue regarding sexual harrassment, but conservatives generally disagree that it's a big problem -- Limbaugh mocks this topic regularly in his diatribes against feminism in general.
Denying people the vote is essential for Republican governance, as we've discussed aplenty on this very thread and others.
Rubin seems to be projecting a lot of Republican sins onto Trump himself, but I wonder if Trump's extreme ugliness is making her re-evaluate the validity of her own conservative stance at all?
In any case, if voters line up to express their will on any of the topics Rubin cites, they'll vote for Democrats, not Republicans, Trump notwithstanding.
posted by Gelatin at 9:51 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
No kidding. A lot of the public opinion Rublin cites in which people disagree with Trump were already basic tenets of the Republican Party even before Trump took it over.
If you then turn to exit polls, voters said by big margins: they disapprove of Trump (54 percent to 45 percent ); regard the GOP unfavorably (52 percent to 44 percent); think the country is on the wrong track (54 percent to 42 percent), thought Trumpâs immigration policies were too harsh (46 percent, with 33 percent saying they were about right and 17 saying not tough enough); favor tougher gun laws (59 percent to 37 percent); think his foreign policy makes the country less safe (46 percent to 38 percent); disapprove of Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh (47 percent to 44 percent); want to uphold Roe v. Wade (66 percent to 25 percent); think it is somewhat or very important to elect more minorities (72 percent to 24 percent) and somewhat or very important to elect more women (78 percent to 20 percent); think sexual harassment is a big problem (84 percent to 14 percent); and are more concerned about people being denied the right to vote than voter fraud (53 percent to 36 percent).
Immigration? Republicans -- at least its so-called Tea Party wing -- are against it; a Republican Congress couldn't pass any immigration reform at all.
Tougher gun laws? Republicans are against.
I'll grant that "pissing off all our allies" isn't normal Republican foreign policy, but there's nothing special about Kavanaugh as a Federalist Society clone, and Senate Republicans lined up right behind him.
Repeal Roe? Republicans campaign on it, and work to restrict legal abortion in the meantime.
No side has a monopoly on virtue regarding sexual harrassment, but conservatives generally disagree that it's a big problem -- Limbaugh mocks this topic regularly in his diatribes against feminism in general.
Denying people the vote is essential for Republican governance, as we've discussed aplenty on this very thread and others.
Rubin seems to be projecting a lot of Republican sins onto Trump himself, but I wonder if Trump's extreme ugliness is making her re-evaluate the validity of her own conservative stance at all?
In any case, if voters line up to express their will on any of the topics Rubin cites, they'll vote for Democrats, not Republicans, Trump notwithstanding.
posted by Gelatin at 9:51 AM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I did GOTV in 2016 and that's a great way to get some real-world examples of how voting is more difficult than someone who is older and/or more settled might first assume.
Here in PA we don't have a voter ID law (well, we did, but it got struck down by the court), but you can be asked to show proof of residence if you're voting at a particular polling place for the first time. This proof can take the form of a state-issued ID but could also be something like a utility bill, pay stub, etc.... Which you'd think would not be a high barrier until I met a young man who:
1. Did not drive a car and did not have a license
2. Was living at his friend's house and did not have a lease and thus also
3. Did not have his name on any utilitities
4. Worked at a restaurant and was paid in cash under the table (something not in his control, his boss insisted on it because bosses suck) and thus also
5. Did not have a bank account
He had literally nothing that proved he lived in the house he was living in. He really wanted to vote in the election, but we couldn't figure out a way to make that happen a week before election day. He had known previously that PA does not require ID to vote, but he did not know about the "proof of residence" requirement.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, my husband's aunt lives in a nursing home and this year ~for some reason~ no one brought the residents applications for absentee voting. Here in PA they make it a superduper pain to vote in any way and at any time other than at a polling place on election day. No early voting, no no-excuse absentee balloting, and if you do vote absentee your ballot has to be received several days before election day. You can't just rock up to a polling place and drop it off on election day.
Also, imagine you're a college student coming to school here from, say, Oregon. Most adults aren't even aware of the variations in voting regulations between states. An Oregonian kid might legitimately assume that they could register to vote, get their ballot in the mail, fill it out and send it in at their leisure, or drop it off at a polling place.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:51 AM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
Here in PA we don't have a voter ID law (well, we did, but it got struck down by the court), but you can be asked to show proof of residence if you're voting at a particular polling place for the first time. This proof can take the form of a state-issued ID but could also be something like a utility bill, pay stub, etc.... Which you'd think would not be a high barrier until I met a young man who:
1. Did not drive a car and did not have a license
2. Was living at his friend's house and did not have a lease and thus also
3. Did not have his name on any utilitities
4. Worked at a restaurant and was paid in cash under the table (something not in his control, his boss insisted on it because bosses suck) and thus also
5. Did not have a bank account
He had literally nothing that proved he lived in the house he was living in. He really wanted to vote in the election, but we couldn't figure out a way to make that happen a week before election day. He had known previously that PA does not require ID to vote, but he did not know about the "proof of residence" requirement.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, my husband's aunt lives in a nursing home and this year ~for some reason~ no one brought the residents applications for absentee voting. Here in PA they make it a superduper pain to vote in any way and at any time other than at a polling place on election day. No early voting, no no-excuse absentee balloting, and if you do vote absentee your ballot has to be received several days before election day. You can't just rock up to a polling place and drop it off on election day.
Also, imagine you're a college student coming to school here from, say, Oregon. Most adults aren't even aware of the variations in voting regulations between states. An Oregonian kid might legitimately assume that they could register to vote, get their ballot in the mail, fill it out and send it in at their leisure, or drop it off at a polling place.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:51 AM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
Bluntly--and bear in mind that my sample is college students in Texas--I do not see disengagement or disinterest in what's going on anywhere among them. I see high discussion and engagement about both state law--that whole campus carry thing sparked widespread conversation among my students--and national law.
Beavis and Butt-Head were last on the air twenty years ago. There are registerable voters right now who weren't even born then. I certainly was never allowed to watch them, in part because again, I was a seven-year-old when they went off air. My students were discussing the shows they grew up with two weeks ago, and I got to be the cool TA because I had an opinion about Avatar: The Last Airbender and Legend of Korra. Other more recent megapopular phenomena include things like Harry Potter and the Hunger Games. These are not media that encourage children and young adults not to give a shit about civics, here. Facing down governmental corruption by taking part in leadership against malevolent regimes is kind of a central point in much of the youth media that has been most popular in the last decade, and I think that's more likely to be relevent to today's youth vote than media that was primarily targeted at younger Gen X folks and the very oldest millennials.
posted by sciatrix at 9:55 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
Beavis and Butt-Head were last on the air twenty years ago. There are registerable voters right now who weren't even born then. I certainly was never allowed to watch them, in part because again, I was a seven-year-old when they went off air. My students were discussing the shows they grew up with two weeks ago, and I got to be the cool TA because I had an opinion about Avatar: The Last Airbender and Legend of Korra. Other more recent megapopular phenomena include things like Harry Potter and the Hunger Games. These are not media that encourage children and young adults not to give a shit about civics, here. Facing down governmental corruption by taking part in leadership against malevolent regimes is kind of a central point in much of the youth media that has been most popular in the last decade, and I think that's more likely to be relevent to today's youth vote than media that was primarily targeted at younger Gen X folks and the very oldest millennials.
posted by sciatrix at 9:55 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
Also, on preview: lol at the idea that eighteen year olds do all that shit successfully without help, too, it's just that if they can't do it we make sure they do it and help them through the process if they don't.
In the meantime, we need to "denormalize" (is that a word?) the idea that one needs to register to vote. One needs to vote and the government needs to maintain a list of eligible voters as best it can without requiring any effort from the voter, who has a right to vote free of encumbrance. We need to emphasize that the whole idea of "registering to vote" is a pre-Jim-Crow-era mechanism for suppressing non-white and foreign-born voters. It's not just young people who are foiled by this, it's all socially and politically disenfranchised folk who face this barrier to participation and it is wrong. Full stop.
Let's not direct all our energy into helping people register and direct some of that energy into ending individual voter registration. The government already knows enough in 99.999% of cases to populate voter rolls. They can take care of the additional 0.001% without hassling individual voters. I show up. I vote. Simple as that. If the gummint thinks I'm ineligible, it's up to it to prove it.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:56 AM on November 9, 2018 [34 favorites]
In the meantime, we need to "denormalize" (is that a word?) the idea that one needs to register to vote. One needs to vote and the government needs to maintain a list of eligible voters as best it can without requiring any effort from the voter, who has a right to vote free of encumbrance. We need to emphasize that the whole idea of "registering to vote" is a pre-Jim-Crow-era mechanism for suppressing non-white and foreign-born voters. It's not just young people who are foiled by this, it's all socially and politically disenfranchised folk who face this barrier to participation and it is wrong. Full stop.
Let's not direct all our energy into helping people register and direct some of that energy into ending individual voter registration. The government already knows enough in 99.999% of cases to populate voter rolls. They can take care of the additional 0.001% without hassling individual voters. I show up. I vote. Simple as that. If the gummint thinks I'm ineligible, it's up to it to prove it.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:56 AM on November 9, 2018 [34 favorites]
Right on, sciatrix. Did you know that I didn't even know what a "property tax" consisted of until after I'd bought a property at age 30? I had a vague idea, but was still surprised when the actual bill arrived. And while my parents were indeed neglectful on these matters, it can also be chalked up to the sheer number of things we have to know to do adulting. Drivers license. Car. Insurance. TV. Gas. Electricity. Cell phone. Scammers who try to take your money. Legitimate people who try to sell you shit you don't need. Being claimed on someone else's taxes. How the fuck to hire a contractor who will do a good job. Wait, I have to pay for water? And now I have to clean a septic tank? I didn't know I had one. And now my neighbor doesn't like where my property fence is. Utility bill...I remember in my 20s literally not knowing what my family friend meant when he tried to teach me "call the utility company to get it in your own name." (Granted, that was before the internet.) There are So. Many. Fucking. Things. to learn how to be an adult, and yet we spend time forcing our kids to learn standardized tests.
posted by Melismata at 9:58 AM on November 9, 2018 [21 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 9:58 AM on November 9, 2018 [21 favorites]
In my experience adults of this and recent generations have really been dropping the ball badly when it comes to teaching their kids how to adult. My gut tells me this must be the kids' fault, somehow.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:08 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:08 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
wow, in all the noise, i did not even realize how badly Kelly whipped Kobach's ass.
my recollection was that she had a slim lead when i went to bed on election night, but when the votes were all counted, she thrashed him 47.8% to 43.3%.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:16 AM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
my recollection was that she had a slim lead when i went to bed on election night, but when the votes were all counted, she thrashed him 47.8% to 43.3%.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:16 AM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
To add to other points: I think the less "civic" we consider voting to be, the better, because so many people truly think of themselves as insufficiently qualified to vote (or conversely, think of the vote as insufficiently "qualified" to merit their time).
If we can perpetuate the idea that it's okay to vote "frivolously" rather than for Deep Important Reasons, I think that would improve things. It's what conservatives have been doing when they vote because the ISIS caravan is coming to give them ebola (of course, that doesn't feel frivolous to them, but still).
Also, a mindset of "Go ahead and always vote, just like you always see the latest superhero flick or whatever" makes it easier to be less perfectionist about candidates -- one idiom I like is that a vote isn't a love letter but a chess move.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
If we can perpetuate the idea that it's okay to vote "frivolously" rather than for Deep Important Reasons, I think that would improve things. It's what conservatives have been doing when they vote because the ISIS caravan is coming to give them ebola (of course, that doesn't feel frivolous to them, but still).
Also, a mindset of "Go ahead and always vote, just like you always see the latest superhero flick or whatever" makes it easier to be less perfectionist about candidates -- one idiom I like is that a vote isn't a love letter but a chess move.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
Even as MTV was trying to Rock the Vote, Beavis and Butt-Head (whom I adore, to be clear) were making it cool to fuck up and disengage. South Park has spent the last 20+ years telling us that caring about stuff is for losers and that every issue is so gray that expressing or, god forbid, acting on a political position is pointless.
I think it goes back even further than that. I was the target audience for Rock the Vote back in the 90s, but I was also the target audience for "Schoolhouse Rock" in the 70s and had a mandatory "American Civics" class in Jr. High in the 80s. People went out of their way to tell me that voting was cool, but they laid the groundwork before that by making sure I knew how government worked in the first place. But I don't even think they offer a civics class any more, so people aren't even being told about the Electoral College or Checks and Balances or any of that stuff and so even when you do convince someone to vote, you run the risk of someone being all "but this guy's president, why can't he just make a law? Why do these other people have to get involved?"
People should know the what before the why, I wager.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:24 AM on November 9, 2018 [19 favorites]
I think it goes back even further than that. I was the target audience for Rock the Vote back in the 90s, but I was also the target audience for "Schoolhouse Rock" in the 70s and had a mandatory "American Civics" class in Jr. High in the 80s. People went out of their way to tell me that voting was cool, but they laid the groundwork before that by making sure I knew how government worked in the first place. But I don't even think they offer a civics class any more, so people aren't even being told about the Electoral College or Checks and Balances or any of that stuff and so even when you do convince someone to vote, you run the risk of someone being all "but this guy's president, why can't he just make a law? Why do these other people have to get involved?"
People should know the what before the why, I wager.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:24 AM on November 9, 2018 [19 favorites]
As a parent, I made sure my daughter registered to vote before she even turned 18 and helped her sign up for a mail ballot when she went off to college. What is hard is giving younger voters a reason to show up.
The way my mother drilled it into my adolescent brain was by framing voting as "bitching rights" - if you don't vote then you do not have the right to complain. That simple logic was enough to compel young, politically disillusioned me to vote because there was no way in hell that I was going to give up my right to rail against the system.
posted by homunculus at 10:40 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
The way my mother drilled it into my adolescent brain was by framing voting as "bitching rights" - if you don't vote then you do not have the right to complain. That simple logic was enough to compel young, politically disillusioned me to vote because there was no way in hell that I was going to give up my right to rail against the system.
posted by homunculus at 10:40 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
My son took a required civics course his second year of high school (two years ago), so those classes have not disappeared everywhere.
posted by rikschell at 10:43 AM on November 9, 2018
posted by rikschell at 10:43 AM on November 9, 2018
These are not media that encourage children and young adults not to give a shit about civics, here. Facing down governmental corruption by taking part in leadership against malevolent regimes is kind of a central point in much of the youth media that has been most popular in the last decade, and I think that's more likely to be relevent to today's youth vote than media that was primarily targeted at younger Gen X folks and the very oldest millennials.
I was talking about Youtube / fractured media and youth; Beavis and Butt-Head et al were targeted at young X / old millennials, many of whom do not give two shits. I'm not drawing a straight line between those things, but I do think that the media landscape for young people is and has been dire.
But I do hope you're right that the ... gen z? whateverthefuck we're calling these kids ... take the right message from their mass media instead of the wrong one from the zillion different garbage places that are available.
posted by uncleozzy at 10:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
I was talking about Youtube / fractured media and youth; Beavis and Butt-Head et al were targeted at young X / old millennials, many of whom do not give two shits. I'm not drawing a straight line between those things, but I do think that the media landscape for young people is and has been dire.
But I do hope you're right that the ... gen z? whateverthefuck we're calling these kids ... take the right message from their mass media instead of the wrong one from the zillion different garbage places that are available.
posted by uncleozzy at 10:43 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Come on. This idea that the vast disparity between young and old voters -- two and three to one -- is because voting is too complicated is ridiculous.
Young people figured out how to get driver licenses, many have passports, filled out job applications, filled out rental applications, file income taxes, register for and pay utility bills, all of which are many times more complicated than voting. The barriers to voting for the young are nothing compared to Native Americans in North Dakota or the African Americans in Georgia.
This is completely incorrect and is a good illustration of how Democrats are uncritically accepting the Republican, victim-blaming frame for low youth turnout. College students are a bloc that is also targeted by deliberate voter suppression efforts, e.g., in New Hampshire:
posted by en forme de poire at 10:48 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
Young people figured out how to get driver licenses, many have passports, filled out job applications, filled out rental applications, file income taxes, register for and pay utility bills, all of which are many times more complicated than voting. The barriers to voting for the young are nothing compared to Native Americans in North Dakota or the African Americans in Georgia.
This is completely incorrect and is a good illustration of how Democrats are uncritically accepting the Republican, victim-blaming frame for low youth turnout. College students are a bloc that is also targeted by deliberate voter suppression efforts, e.g., in New Hampshire:
The new law will force permanent residents to comply with laws such as state motor vehicle registration. Students with cars, for example, would have to pay for a new, in-state driver's license and register their cars in the state, a cost critics argue could deter the historically Democratic voting bloc from the ballot box. ... Muscatel said he recently spent $300 to register his car in preparation for his Statehouse bid. The process, which he said took about a month, included obtaining a letter from the university affirming his campus residency to prove to the town clerk that he lived there, and a 45-minute drive each way to the New Hampshire Division of Motor Vehicles. [link]Or, from the first article I linked, in South Carolina:
For decades in Greenville County, South Carolina, would-be voters who gave an address on the Furman University campus had to fill out an extra form that asked if they had a job, a car, or parents who still claimed them on their tax returns. The form was banned in 2016, after three students sued the county and won.The GOP does not want college students to vote, and in many cases neither do local municipalities in general. Making it easier to vote improves youth turnout (and this study doesn't even take into account most of the obstacles, including shady and deceptive behavior by poll workers whose districts include universities).
posted by en forme de poire at 10:48 AM on November 9, 2018 [27 favorites]
There are So. Many. Fucking. Things. to learn how to be an adult, and yet we spend time forcing our kids to learn standardized tests.
My kids both filled out their mail-in ballots based on a sample ballot that we went over in detail and they filled out, and one of them said, as she was going through our four double-sided pages of ballot, "oh look; finally a use for those scantron skills."
(But yeah. This was after I went to Ballotpedia and printed out all the measures & candidates, and we looked up statements from and about people and noted who was for and against each ballot measures, and what those measures actually said. Political research is not an intuitive skill.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:49 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
My kids both filled out their mail-in ballots based on a sample ballot that we went over in detail and they filled out, and one of them said, as she was going through our four double-sided pages of ballot, "oh look; finally a use for those scantron skills."
(But yeah. This was after I went to Ballotpedia and printed out all the measures & candidates, and we looked up statements from and about people and noted who was for and against each ballot measures, and what those measures actually said. Political research is not an intuitive skill.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:49 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Georgia voters who filled out provisional ballots must finalize their ballots *today*.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:54 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:54 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
in many cases neither do local municipalities in general
(Sorry, to clarify: even in "blue" municipalities, students tend to vote the "wrong" way on town/gown conflicts, adding incentives to suppress their vote. But probably the main threat is in fact from the GOP, where sitting officials have blatantly lied to and threatened out-of-state college students.)
posted by en forme de poire at 10:59 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
(Sorry, to clarify: even in "blue" municipalities, students tend to vote the "wrong" way on town/gown conflicts, adding incentives to suppress their vote. But probably the main threat is in fact from the GOP, where sitting officials have blatantly lied to and threatened out-of-state college students.)
posted by en forme de poire at 10:59 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Florida vote count update:
* Ag Comm: Fried [D] +2,974 (0.037%) [last night: +2,915 (0.036%)]
* Senate: Scott [R] +15,024 (0.184%) [last night: +15,074 (0.184%)]
* Governor: DeSantis [R] +36,149 (0.446%) [last night: +36,211 (0.447%)]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:01 AM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
* Ag Comm: Fried [D] +2,974 (0.037%) [last night: +2,915 (0.036%)]
* Senate: Scott [R] +15,024 (0.184%) [last night: +15,074 (0.184%)]
* Governor: DeSantis [R] +36,149 (0.446%) [last night: +36,211 (0.447%)]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:01 AM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
Arizona vote count update:
Senate: Sinema [D] +8,343 (0.448%) [last night: +9,610 (0.518%)]
Public Instruction: Hoffman +19,407 (1.053%) [D] [last night: +20,348 (1.108%)]
Sec of State: Gaynor [R] +20,854 (1.116%) [last night: +19,763 (1.061%)]
My understanding is we'll see big updates about 5 pm Arizona time.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:07 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
Senate: Sinema [D] +8,343 (0.448%) [last night: +9,610 (0.518%)]
Public Instruction: Hoffman +19,407 (1.053%) [D] [last night: +20,348 (1.108%)]
Sec of State: Gaynor [R] +20,854 (1.116%) [last night: +19,763 (1.061%)]
My understanding is we'll see big updates about 5 pm Arizona time.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:07 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
Those totals do not seem to have moved much since last night. Have all the Broward votes been counted? And one presumes we're looking at a recount in the governor and senate races at least?
The way Republicans were squawking about "stolen elections," one would have thought they expected to lose if all the votes were counted (as, indeed, they should). So what gives?
posted by Gelatin at 11:08 AM on November 9, 2018
The way Republicans were squawking about "stolen elections," one would have thought they expected to lose if all the votes were counted (as, indeed, they should). So what gives?
posted by Gelatin at 11:08 AM on November 9, 2018
Something looks weird in Broward County
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:09 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:09 AM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
CNN's Ryan Nobles: Protests breaking out in Broward County over the vote tabulation controversy there... shouts of "lock her up" directed at the SOE Brenda Snipes. #FLGov #FLSen #FLPol
NYT's Patricia Mazzei: The scene at the Broward elections office where the canvassing board is preparing to meet. Also chants of, âLock her up!â (w/video)
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:10 AM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
NYT's Patricia Mazzei: The scene at the Broward elections office where the canvassing board is preparing to meet. Also chants of, âLock her up!â (w/video)
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:10 AM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
Protests breaking out in Broward County over the vote tabulation controversy there... shouts of "lock her up" directed at the SOE Brenda Snipes. #FLGov #FLSen #FLPol
No Brooks Brothers this time, just MAGA hats and Q shirts.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:11 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
No Brooks Brothers this time, just MAGA hats and Q shirts.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:11 AM on November 9, 2018 [7 favorites]
Now *this* is a plotline that will sell tickets.
* A big, but not complete victory, causing forces on both sides to double down.
* A big-tent Democratic party putting everything on the table in one last ditch effort to save our Republic.
* A totally out of control Republican party, hitched to a monster of their own making.
* Complete resolution one way or the other on Tuesday, November 3rd 2020.
Can we pull it off? Can we stand together despite our differences? Will we, the people of the United States of America, stand up to save our democracy...and maybe even the whole world?
I'm so pumped up! The stage is set, everything is in place, now we just need a leader to rally behind. Come on Senator Harris announce for 2020!!!! (Also, could you pretty please ask Senator Warren if she'd mind helping out as VP? I know its sort of a step down, but the country needs her too.)
posted by getting_back_on_track at 11:12 AM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
* A big, but not complete victory, causing forces on both sides to double down.
* A big-tent Democratic party putting everything on the table in one last ditch effort to save our Republic.
* A totally out of control Republican party, hitched to a monster of their own making.
* Complete resolution one way or the other on Tuesday, November 3rd 2020.
Can we pull it off? Can we stand together despite our differences? Will we, the people of the United States of America, stand up to save our democracy...and maybe even the whole world?
I'm so pumped up! The stage is set, everything is in place, now we just need a leader to rally behind. Come on Senator Harris announce for 2020!!!! (Also, could you pretty please ask Senator Warren if she'd mind helping out as VP? I know its sort of a step down, but the country needs her too.)
posted by getting_back_on_track at 11:12 AM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
I swear to god, every time I hear "county" in a news story, something shitty is happening.
posted by Etrigan at 11:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 11:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Rick Scott is playing for the Fox crowd but not actually doing much to contest the election:
Tampa Bay Times bureau chief Steve Bousquet:
posted by murphy slaw at 11:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Tampa Bay Times bureau chief Steve Bousquet:
The Florida Department of Law Enforcement says it is NOT investigating Broward elections chief Brenda Snipes. FDLE spokeswoman says the Department of State has not received any allegations of voter fraud, and that Gov. Rick Scott did not put his request in writing.Scottâs request for FDLE probe of Broward vote draws criticism â and goes nowhere
posted by murphy slaw at 11:13 AM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Come on Senator Harris announce for 2020!!!!
It's spelled K-L-O-B-U-C-H-A-R.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:15 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
It's spelled K-L-O-B-U-C-H-A-R.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:15 AM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
In light of independent redistricting measures passed in three or four states this week (Utah still pending), Schwarzenegger planning to push them in more states in 2020.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
That FiveThirtyEight article certainly makes it seem like the Broward County undervotes were a ballot design problem and not a machine-reading one, which would mean Nelson's goose is all but cooked. Scott seems awfully panicked for that to be the case, though.....
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
Protests breaking out in Broward County over the vote tabulation controversy there... shouts of "lock her up" directed at the SOE Brenda Snipes. #FLGov #FLSen #FLPol
I know it's "first as tragedy, second as farce," but what if both times were tragic farces.
posted by octobersurprise at 11:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
I know it's "first as tragedy, second as farce," but what if both times were tragic farces.
posted by octobersurprise at 11:20 AM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
I'm legit thinking a Klobuchar/Beto ticket is more likely now than ever.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 11:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Lord Chancellor at 11:21 AM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
Maybe Nelson knows a hand-performed recount will show some discrepancies.
(Bad ballot design in Palm Beach County may have cost Gore the election in 2000, although I personally believe that Kathleen Harris would have found a way to screw Gore in a close race regardless of whether Gore was ahead or behind on the final permitted count.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:27 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
(Bad ballot design in Palm Beach County may have cost Gore the election in 2000, although I personally believe that Kathleen Harris would have found a way to screw Gore in a close race regardless of whether Gore was ahead or behind on the final permitted count.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:27 AM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
a ballot design problem and not a machine-reading one
That was my immediate thought looking at the ballot as well. I think the voice in my head said "ohhhhh crap" or something even less civil.
The thing that give me hope in FL is if there are yet more uncounted initial ballots (are there? Who knows? It's Florida! The only thing known is that it's interminably messed up).
Even though it will happen, the recount isn't going to help Nelson.
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:30 AM on November 9, 2018
That was my immediate thought looking at the ballot as well. I think the voice in my head said "ohhhhh crap" or something even less civil.
The thing that give me hope in FL is if there are yet more uncounted initial ballots (are there? Who knows? It's Florida! The only thing known is that it's interminably messed up).
Even though it will happen, the recount isn't going to help Nelson.
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:30 AM on November 9, 2018
I don't think you can assert that. Things like tabulation errors do happen.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 AM on November 9, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 11:32 AM on November 9, 2018
I'd totally be willing to help crowdfund sending the ballot designers in Broward County to some kind of class. Though I'm amazed the Democratic Party isn't more interested in ensuring its own people don't shoot them in the foot with bad ballot design.
posted by Gelatin at 11:32 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 11:32 AM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
I don't think you can assert that. Things like tabulation errors do happen.
from the FiveThirtyEight article:
"Recounts rarely change the outcomes of elections. A FairVote analysis found that the average recount from 2000 to 2015 shifted the election margin by an average of just 0.02 percentage points. The largest margin swing was 1,247 votes â coincidentally also coming in Florida, in the 2000 presidential race. "
Scott currently up 15,000 votes. So...I'm not optimistic about the recount.
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:36 AM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
from the FiveThirtyEight article:
"Recounts rarely change the outcomes of elections. A FairVote analysis found that the average recount from 2000 to 2015 shifted the election margin by an average of just 0.02 percentage points. The largest margin swing was 1,247 votes â coincidentally also coming in Florida, in the 2000 presidential race. "
Scott currently up 15,000 votes. So...I'm not optimistic about the recount.
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:36 AM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
There are 20,000 overseas ballots that can be counted if they are received by 10 days after Election Day. There are 16 counties without completed counts.
I'm not saying a Nelson win is likely, by any means. I am saying we don't know the size of the gap yet.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
I'm not saying a Nelson win is likely, by any means. I am saying we don't know the size of the gap yet.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Why Porter County, Indiana still hasn't reported, and why the FBI is involved.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:42 AM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
@PoliticoCharlie:
posted by Chrysostom at 11:48 AM on November 9, 2018 [18 favorites]
Governorâs race: 50-49@DawgsOnTop44:
Lt. Gov: 52-48
Secretary of State: 49-49
Atty. Gen: 51-49
Agriculture Comm: 53-47
Insurance Comm: 50-47
Georgia is now officially a 2020 swing state, not a speculative play.
Met Atlanta Counties 2012 ---> 2018All the more reason to support John Barrow in the SOS runoff!
Gwinnett: R +9.4 ---> D +14.2
Cobb: R +12.6 ---> D +9.4
Henry: R +3.3 ---> D +15.3
Douglas: D +4 ---> D +20.4
Fulton: D +29.6 ---> D +45.4
Dekalb: D +43.3 ---> D +67.7
Fayette: R +31.4 ---> R +13.3
Forsyth: R +62.9 ---> R +42.6
posted by Chrysostom at 11:48 AM on November 9, 2018 [18 favorites]
Who is Brenda Snipes, the Broward County supervisor of elections?
in a cabinet drawer
why must florida always be so goddamn florida
posted by murphy slaw at 11:49 AM on November 9, 2018 [20 favorites]
Republican Gov. Jeb Bush asked Snipes to serve as Supervisor of Elections in Broward County â Floridaâs second-most populous county â nearly 15 years ago. Snipes was formally appointed on Nov. 20, 2003, to replace former County Supervisor Miriam Oliphant, who was escorted out of her office and removed from her job. CBS Miami reported while Oliphant was in office, uncounted votes were found in a cabinet drawer, and the department went a million dollars over budget.uncounted votes were found in a cabinet drawer
in a cabinet drawer
why must florida always be so goddamn florida
posted by murphy slaw at 11:49 AM on November 9, 2018 [20 favorites]
People should know the what before the why, I wager.
One of my program areas at work is judicial elections. I often speak on the subject and I get lots and lots of questions about GOTV and strategies for voter participation. The last I reviewed the literature (which was 2016, so most of the studies were elections 2010 and earlier), the most effective GOTV strategies were 1) driving people to their polling places and 2) explaining how ballots work and the logistical, practical, mechanics of registering and voting.
The making voting cool tactics of having celebrities say "Be like me! Vote"; the peer pressure tactics of "Everyone else is doing it!"' the hard sell civic duty "you can't complain if you don't vote" have less an impact than we want to believe. Study after study (when you were looking at the non-suppressed vote and why turnout remains low even among those voters) demonstrated that just showing people how to fill in a ballot or explaining what the machines did with their vote after they pushed the "accept my ballot button" or just talking about vote-by-mail or early voting deadlines and alternative (I did this a lot personally) have the greatest impact.
We don't know if this will change when the raised on social media kids turn 18 (though with the newest 18 year olds running the WalkOut to Vote campaigns) we can start to find out, but even then we saw that the basic knowledge about voting barrier is tremendous, even when it's pretty easy to overcome.
There's still gerrymandering and voter suppression and Russian interference to deal with but we can teach people how to vote and we should be,
posted by crush at 12:00 PM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
One of my program areas at work is judicial elections. I often speak on the subject and I get lots and lots of questions about GOTV and strategies for voter participation. The last I reviewed the literature (which was 2016, so most of the studies were elections 2010 and earlier), the most effective GOTV strategies were 1) driving people to their polling places and 2) explaining how ballots work and the logistical, practical, mechanics of registering and voting.
The making voting cool tactics of having celebrities say "Be like me! Vote"; the peer pressure tactics of "Everyone else is doing it!"' the hard sell civic duty "you can't complain if you don't vote" have less an impact than we want to believe. Study after study (when you were looking at the non-suppressed vote and why turnout remains low even among those voters) demonstrated that just showing people how to fill in a ballot or explaining what the machines did with their vote after they pushed the "accept my ballot button" or just talking about vote-by-mail or early voting deadlines and alternative (I did this a lot personally) have the greatest impact.
We don't know if this will change when the raised on social media kids turn 18 (though with the newest 18 year olds running the WalkOut to Vote campaigns) we can start to find out, but even then we saw that the basic knowledge about voting barrier is tremendous, even when it's pretty easy to overcome.
There's still gerrymandering and voter suppression and Russian interference to deal with but we can teach people how to vote and we should be,
posted by crush at 12:00 PM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
Can anyone clarify whether a "recount" is actually underway in any Florida county? The point I see from many corners of the liberal webosphere is that we are in the uncharted territory of an initial count being politically disputed as a valid thing, because democrats voter fraud ebola isis "republic not a democracy" etc.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:02 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:02 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Florida is still conducting its initial count. However, unless there is a major, unexpected swing in the results, all three of the statewide races we're watching are within the margin where state law requires a recount.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:04 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:04 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
This is currently a count, not a recount. The outcome of the count will determine whether the thresholds for a machine recount or a hand recount have been reached.
posted by murphy slaw at 12:04 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by murphy slaw at 12:04 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
About young people voting:
In the 2020 election, anyone born on Nov 3, 2002 or earlier will be able to vote. They are 16-and-up now. Start outreach in schools, youth centers, and fast food places now - get some "how to vote" flyers made, with that birthday prominently mentioned and a brief rundown of local voting laws. Join social media groups that have heavy teen activity, and make a "how to politics" thread, with pictures of the relevant documents, and Q&A that never mocks people for "simple" questions.
And tell them: It's not always simple. It's not quick-and-easy like some people say; it takes some time, and some concentration, and it's often confusing even for the experts. But there's a pack of old rich white men who are counting on that keeping you from having your say - counting on you acting like children for years longer than the law requires. They don't want you to have a voice. And if you can learn the DOTA talent tree, you can figure this out, and say "fuck off" to the pack of geriatric thieves trying to steal your future.
If we want a youth wave of voters, we need to give them the information that schools no longer have, and the support that their parents may be too busy or confused or apathetic to provide.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
In the 2020 election, anyone born on Nov 3, 2002 or earlier will be able to vote. They are 16-and-up now. Start outreach in schools, youth centers, and fast food places now - get some "how to vote" flyers made, with that birthday prominently mentioned and a brief rundown of local voting laws. Join social media groups that have heavy teen activity, and make a "how to politics" thread, with pictures of the relevant documents, and Q&A that never mocks people for "simple" questions.
And tell them: It's not always simple. It's not quick-and-easy like some people say; it takes some time, and some concentration, and it's often confusing even for the experts. But there's a pack of old rich white men who are counting on that keeping you from having your say - counting on you acting like children for years longer than the law requires. They don't want you to have a voice. And if you can learn the DOTA talent tree, you can figure this out, and say "fuck off" to the pack of geriatric thieves trying to steal your future.
If we want a youth wave of voters, we need to give them the information that schools no longer have, and the support that their parents may be too busy or confused or apathetic to provide.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [17 favorites]
And it's not infantilizing to argue that the current system of voting in the US is stacked against many youth voters. It is.
Yeah and nobody here is disputing that. The infantilizing I quoted was "where their local polling place is [snip] what ID is or isn't required to vote [snip] how to decide between candidates and measures, even if that's "I vote the slate recommended by my favorite newspaper."" The idea that youths who have always-on internet on their phones and who can manage the Snapchat UI can't google up such things if they give a fuck to is insulting to them and counter-productive to identifying actually effective ways to get them to vote, as crush identifies above.
sciatrix drives home the reality of it even while taking the opposing side
Rejecting the harm of low expectations is not mutually exclusive to working to make it easier for people to vote. I believe that making excuses for the not insignificant number of people who have the ability to vote and choose not to is in itself harmful.
posted by phearlez at 12:26 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Yeah and nobody here is disputing that. The infantilizing I quoted was "where their local polling place is [snip] what ID is or isn't required to vote [snip] how to decide between candidates and measures, even if that's "I vote the slate recommended by my favorite newspaper."" The idea that youths who have always-on internet on their phones and who can manage the Snapchat UI can't google up such things if they give a fuck to is insulting to them and counter-productive to identifying actually effective ways to get them to vote, as crush identifies above.
sciatrix drives home the reality of it even while taking the opposing side
This is why I wound up not getting to vote in 2008, even though I was excited about voting and wanted to vote and even though I turned 18 that year. I just couldn't get that absentee ballot in hand by election day, not without giving up other commitments. It was bad advice and I should maybe have been on top of things better--I certainly have regrets!--but 28-year-old-me, who has been voting since thenWith all the impediments in place for you, you subsequently figured it out and now get it done every two years. It's bullshit that you have to deal with that nonsense, but you are the proof that some of the 18-30 crowd can get it done when they want to. If the spirit was willing and initial learning impediments were the #1 problem then the 18-20 vote would be low but the 20-30 vote would be in step with older cohorts. They're not. Nor have they changed notably in the twenty years motor voter has been in place.
Rejecting the harm of low expectations is not mutually exclusive to working to make it easier for people to vote. I believe that making excuses for the not insignificant number of people who have the ability to vote and choose not to is in itself harmful.
posted by phearlez at 12:26 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
I would like to thank House Democrats for singlehandedly solving the migrant caravan crisis.
I'm assuming that's what happened, because Republicans all stopped talking about the caravan, and all that changed in the interim was Democrats won the House
posted by growabrain at 12:39 PM on November 9, 2018 [35 favorites]
I'm assuming that's what happened, because Republicans all stopped talking about the caravan, and all that changed in the interim was Democrats won the House
posted by growabrain at 12:39 PM on November 9, 2018 [35 favorites]
uncounted votes were found in a cabinet drawer
in a cabinet drawer
why must florida always be so goddamn florida
I don't know why florida, but it seems like an obvious strategy for a republican operative to sock some boxes in a weird place, then when they're found complain that "they came out of nowhere."
posted by rhizome at 12:56 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
in a cabinet drawer
why must florida always be so goddamn florida
I don't know why florida, but it seems like an obvious strategy for a republican operative to sock some boxes in a weird place, then when they're found complain that "they came out of nowhere."
posted by rhizome at 12:56 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
The idea that youths who have always-on internet on their phones and who can manage the Snapchat UI can't google up such things if they give a fuck to is insulting to them and counter-productive to identifying actually effective ways to get them to vote
Google only answers questions that people know how to ask it. "How the fuck do I vote" is a question with a series of complicated answers. There are lots of resources for young voters, but as we've seen for years, the quality of what gets surfaced on social media when people ask those questions is... variable, at best. Hell, I know grown adults with lots of experience and education who struggled to find decent information about voting this go-round. (And, as a teacher, one who teaches young adults how to do online research, and one who has seen what kinds of research skills 18-year-olds fresh out of US high schools possess, trust me when I say Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations jokes fall real flat with me.)
posted by halation at 12:58 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Google only answers questions that people know how to ask it. "How the fuck do I vote" is a question with a series of complicated answers. There are lots of resources for young voters, but as we've seen for years, the quality of what gets surfaced on social media when people ask those questions is... variable, at best. Hell, I know grown adults with lots of experience and education who struggled to find decent information about voting this go-round. (And, as a teacher, one who teaches young adults how to do online research, and one who has seen what kinds of research skills 18-year-olds fresh out of US high schools possess, trust me when I say Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations jokes fall real flat with me.)
posted by halation at 12:58 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Most of those are easily answered at vote.org
It is not as easy as it should be but it is not that hard.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:07 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
It is not as easy as it should be but it is not that hard.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:07 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
"Improving opportunities to vote in New York State ... To examine ways to improve access to voting, both in person and by absentee ballot, including through early voting and no-excuse absentee ballot reforms."
Encouraging states to move to vote by mail needs to be a part of the new Voting Rights Act, which should be one of the top five items of the new Democratic agenda.
posted by longdaysjourney at 1:10 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Encouraging states to move to vote by mail needs to be a part of the new Voting Rights Act, which should be one of the top five items of the new Democratic agenda.
posted by longdaysjourney at 1:10 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Result of the 3PM hearing in Rick Scott's suit: Broward County officials may not withhold data on collection/counting of ballots, must allow inspections by 7PM tonight.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
you are the proof that some of the 18-30 crowd can get it done when they want to.
This is a fallacy - "one person managed it; therefore, they call can; it's only laziness that's stopping them." This is exactly the fallacy Republicans push to deny systemic discrimination of women, people of color, and religious minorities. (Also--she didn't manage to get it done, despite wanting to. She managed to do so after the first attempt that didn't work, because she hadn't been fully informed and didn't know how to budget time to deal with it.)
A dedicated teen/young adult can figure out what's involved and vote - if there are no adverse circumstances in their life, and if they've got some support from the people around them to cover for "oops there's this one detail I didn't realize I needed to check in advance."
The impediments make it hard to vote the first time - and the communities around them, and the media they consume, make sure they know that voting isn't really supposed to be part of their lives. The candidates rarely speak to them; the ballot measures are about issues they don't understand and, again, nobody talks to them about what those will mean in their lives, and pop media makes it clear that voting isn't part of young people's lives.
The chart showing that "young people don't vote" doesn't show which ones keep voting after they've started, as opposed to having a late starting date.
I believe that making excuses for the not insignificant number of people who have the ability to vote and choose not to is in itself harmful.
I believe that downplaying the impediments they face is at least as harmful. They get a lot of "GO VOTE!!!" hype, enough to feel guilty if they don't, but not a lot of support that covers how to do so while dealing with college life, scrambling for a job, and being the only one in your family who seems to think it might be important.
Most of those are easily answered at vote.org
That's one of the many, many resources that will be recommended when someone asks, "how do I vote?" Learning how to identify useful resources from the pile of propaganda is another non-intuitive, it-takes-practice skill.
I'm not trying to say, "oh, poor kids; it's so hard to vote; it's totally okay if they give up on it." I'm saying, "it is hard. The people who implied it was easy may not be lying, but they either don't know or have forgotten how much hassle it is to get started. You'll need to put some effort in, and we can't even promise that your candidates will win because of that effort. All we can say is: Not expending that effort makes everything worse, and once you get it done, you will be part of a proud history of people who strove to change the world they live in."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
This is a fallacy - "one person managed it; therefore, they call can; it's only laziness that's stopping them." This is exactly the fallacy Republicans push to deny systemic discrimination of women, people of color, and religious minorities. (Also--she didn't manage to get it done, despite wanting to. She managed to do so after the first attempt that didn't work, because she hadn't been fully informed and didn't know how to budget time to deal with it.)
A dedicated teen/young adult can figure out what's involved and vote - if there are no adverse circumstances in their life, and if they've got some support from the people around them to cover for "oops there's this one detail I didn't realize I needed to check in advance."
The impediments make it hard to vote the first time - and the communities around them, and the media they consume, make sure they know that voting isn't really supposed to be part of their lives. The candidates rarely speak to them; the ballot measures are about issues they don't understand and, again, nobody talks to them about what those will mean in their lives, and pop media makes it clear that voting isn't part of young people's lives.
The chart showing that "young people don't vote" doesn't show which ones keep voting after they've started, as opposed to having a late starting date.
I believe that making excuses for the not insignificant number of people who have the ability to vote and choose not to is in itself harmful.
I believe that downplaying the impediments they face is at least as harmful. They get a lot of "GO VOTE!!!" hype, enough to feel guilty if they don't, but not a lot of support that covers how to do so while dealing with college life, scrambling for a job, and being the only one in your family who seems to think it might be important.
Most of those are easily answered at vote.org
That's one of the many, many resources that will be recommended when someone asks, "how do I vote?" Learning how to identify useful resources from the pile of propaganda is another non-intuitive, it-takes-practice skill.
I'm not trying to say, "oh, poor kids; it's so hard to vote; it's totally okay if they give up on it." I'm saying, "it is hard. The people who implied it was easy may not be lying, but they either don't know or have forgotten how much hassle it is to get started. You'll need to put some effort in, and we can't even promise that your candidates will win because of that effort. All we can say is: Not expending that effort makes everything worse, and once you get it done, you will be part of a proud history of people who strove to change the world they live in."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [25 favorites]
If you're not at a bare minimum mailed a postcard a month in advance that tells you where you're registered to vote and where you'll be voting, and where to look up candidate and ballot information, then there's a problem. If you're not automatically registered to vote based on your tax returns (for example), that's a problem. If you have to take time off work, or school, to vote, that's a problem. If you need to climb stairs to vote, that's a problem. If you need to drive or take public transportation more than five minutes to vote, and the alternative isn't just mail in your ballot, that's a problem. If your ballot takes more than a minute or two to fill out because there are dozens of races and candidates, that's a problem. If you have to stand in line more than five minutes, that's a problem. If your ballot takes a significant amount of mental effort to figure out how to actually complete it correctly, that's a problem. If you have to fill in a bubble carefully, that's a problem. If the names are written confusingly, that's a problem. If the ballot is designed to err on the side of failure (no vote recorded) rather than success, that's a problem. Etc, etc, etc.
There's a shitload of friction about voting that has nothing obviousto do with voter age or race or economic class, but does factor into who finds it easier or harder to vote.
Voting should be easy, simple, and nearly foolproof. No one should find it more difficult to vote because of work, or school, or health, or physical or mental limitation. Any system that imposes friction must be fixed, and only when all of this bullshit is gone forever will I be even the slightest bit interested in listening to anyone bitching about voter apathy.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:18 PM on November 9, 2018 [34 favorites]
There's a shitload of friction about voting that has nothing obviousto do with voter age or race or economic class, but does factor into who finds it easier or harder to vote.
Voting should be easy, simple, and nearly foolproof. No one should find it more difficult to vote because of work, or school, or health, or physical or mental limitation. Any system that imposes friction must be fixed, and only when all of this bullshit is gone forever will I be even the slightest bit interested in listening to anyone bitching about voter apathy.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:18 PM on November 9, 2018 [34 favorites]
And if you can learn the DOTA talent tree, you can figure this out, and say "fuck off" to the pack of geriatric thieves trying to steal your future.
You'll also have plenty of experience dealing with Russian interference.
cyka
posted by Uncle Ira at 1:20 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
You'll also have plenty of experience dealing with Russian interference.
cyka
posted by Uncle Ira at 1:20 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
Regarding the youth vote: many of you also assuming people know that they can vote and that it's a thing that happens. I had zero conversations with people about voting prior to my late twenties. After learning that everyone (more or less) is allowed to vote and should, it took a few cycles of "nope, you're not allowed to do X until you do Y first, tough luck see you in a year" before I got through everything.
Not everyone has parents who teach them how to be an adult. Not everyone has civics classes to teach them how our democracy works. Hell, a quarter of us don't even have friends.
It boggles my mind that people are resistant to understanding this.
Access is a privilege. It's great you all knew this stuff, but that just means you're privileged. Maybe listen and try to help people less fortunate rather than just telling them they're lazy.
posted by ragtag at 1:21 PM on November 9, 2018 [31 favorites]
Not everyone has parents who teach them how to be an adult. Not everyone has civics classes to teach them how our democracy works. Hell, a quarter of us don't even have friends.
It boggles my mind that people are resistant to understanding this.
Access is a privilege. It's great you all knew this stuff, but that just means you're privileged. Maybe listen and try to help people less fortunate rather than just telling them they're lazy.
posted by ragtag at 1:21 PM on November 9, 2018 [31 favorites]
If you're not at a bare minimum mailed a postcard a month in advance that tells you where you're registered to vote and where you'll be voting, and where to look up candidate and ballot information, then there's a problem
my spouse, who has voted in every election since becoming a citizen in 2016, was mailed one such card . . . and then told no record of her registration existed at our polling place.
Would i piss on the NY Board of Elections if it were on fire? Reader, i would not.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 1:22 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
my spouse, who has voted in every election since becoming a citizen in 2016, was mailed one such card . . . and then told no record of her registration existed at our polling place.
Would i piss on the NY Board of Elections if it were on fire? Reader, i would not.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 1:22 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
It's not either/or. Voter apathy is a huge problem and voter suppression is a huge problem. They do not affect all voters or all states equally. They both need to be addressed. You are all correct in your arguments.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:23 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:23 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
The thing is though is that it's easy to bitch about voter apathy but there's nothing you can do to force someone to vote, much less force like 20 million people to vote. You can motivate them but if the process itself is flawed, they may just frigging give up, and be that much harder to motivate in future.
However, you can fix physical and systemic obstacles in the process of voting comparatively easily (once you have some control over the apparatus of voting), and with every improvement pick up hundreds to thousands to millions of voters who were otherwise mentally or physically disenfranchised.
It isn't either/or, agreed. But yelling at someone to push harder on a rope isn't going to move the rope, and will just make them angry. Systems must be fixed, and people will be motivated along with.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:29 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
However, you can fix physical and systemic obstacles in the process of voting comparatively easily (once you have some control over the apparatus of voting), and with every improvement pick up hundreds to thousands to millions of voters who were otherwise mentally or physically disenfranchised.
It isn't either/or, agreed. But yelling at someone to push harder on a rope isn't going to move the rope, and will just make them angry. Systems must be fixed, and people will be motivated along with.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:29 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Result of the 3PM hearing in Rick Scott's suit: Broward County officials may not withhold data on collection/counting of ballots, must allow inspections by 7PM tonight.
Scott would obviously steal this election if he can but this seems right to me. Snipes is clearly and obviously incompetent, failing to comply with reasonable state law, and is acting sketchy as fuck. I can easily imagine analogous situations where we'd be outraged and convinced something illegal was happening on far less sketch.
I don't believe she's stealing anything. I think she's just plain incompetent. But get some inspectors in there.
posted by Justinian at 1:32 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Scott would obviously steal this election if he can but this seems right to me. Snipes is clearly and obviously incompetent, failing to comply with reasonable state law, and is acting sketchy as fuck. I can easily imagine analogous situations where we'd be outraged and convinced something illegal was happening on far less sketch.
I don't believe she's stealing anything. I think she's just plain incompetent. But get some inspectors in there.
posted by Justinian at 1:32 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Right, like, I get that it's hard for some folks to vote and those folks have my sympathy. But I still think that when someone tells me that they don't vote, unless the reason is that voter suppression makes it too hard, the answer should almost always be, "Why the fuck not?! What the fuck is wrong with you that you don't vote? Are you not an adult?"
It should just be assumed that getting off your ass to go vote is just part of being a grown-up. Now, there may be some grown-up things that I, personally, don't always do, but I at least acknowledge that I should be doing them and should have good reasons for not doing them.
posted by VTX at 1:38 PM on November 9, 2018
It should just be assumed that getting off your ass to go vote is just part of being a grown-up. Now, there may be some grown-up things that I, personally, don't always do, but I at least acknowledge that I should be doing them and should have good reasons for not doing them.
posted by VTX at 1:38 PM on November 9, 2018
Is there some reason (apart from wishful thinking) that people are assuming that Beto won't run for Senate again in 2020? Cornyn may not be a pile of roaches with access to theatrical-quality latex, but he's up for re-election.
posted by DebetEsse at 1:45 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by DebetEsse at 1:45 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'd be pretty OK with a 2020 Democratic message of: "Voting should be as easy as DOTA".
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:48 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:48 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
A good side point about the youth vote that Nate Silver made a couple weeks ago (I can't find a link)... we think of the issue as generational. Like: old people do vote while young people don't. But in fact, the trend is more linear than clifflike: 70-year-olds vote more than people in their 60s, who outvote 50-year-olds, who vote more than 40-year-olds. For some strange reason no one talks about how the lazy middle-aged Americans should get their act together in comparison to their elders.
In a larger sense, divvying up the populace into those categories can be the wrong path. Nobody needs to "win" the youth vote, in the sense of an arbitrary 51% majority of them, because young people aren't a state or administrative district. Right now it looks like about 30% of eligible young Americans voted this year -- as compared to about 20% or less in other midterm years. That's multiplying by 150%, an incredible uptick! As long as we stick to a mistaken all-or-nothing notion about getting "the young people" to vote as if they were a collective, we'll be mentally setting ourselves up for failure even as the success level actually keeps rising.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:50 PM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
In a larger sense, divvying up the populace into those categories can be the wrong path. Nobody needs to "win" the youth vote, in the sense of an arbitrary 51% majority of them, because young people aren't a state or administrative district. Right now it looks like about 30% of eligible young Americans voted this year -- as compared to about 20% or less in other midterm years. That's multiplying by 150%, an incredible uptick! As long as we stick to a mistaken all-or-nothing notion about getting "the young people" to vote as if they were a collective, we'll be mentally setting ourselves up for failure even as the success level actually keeps rising.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:50 PM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
Voter suppression is a labyrinth, not a wall. All of these barriers are surmountable. It's absolutely possible for young voters to get the information they need, complete the required steps, and vote. Millions do. I've been one of them since I turned 18. But many parts of the system have the effect of making it more difficult at every turn, and more and more potential voters get stuck somewhere along the way. And it's not insulting or infantilizing to point that out; it's the only way it's ever going to get fixed.
We have data on this. In 2008, youth turnout was nine percentage points higher in states with election day registration. Who is more likely to have recently moved to an address different from their voter registration? A middle-aged suburban homeowner or a 20-something renter? And if you have recently moved, it's extremely not-obvious what that means for your ability to vote. Can you vote? Do you go to your new or old polling place? What if you moved across state or county lines? What do you tell them? Do you need ID, and if so, what kind? What if you can't get to your old polling place because you moved far away from it? When you do GOTV stuff, these questions come up, and using Snapchat is a whole lot easier than researching the answers.
I talked to a couple of voters in the past week who were interested in voting on Tuesday, but were bummed that they missed the registration deadline. I got them the link to check their voter registration, and turns out they were registered, at their current address no less, and they apparently thought they had to re-register before each election and missed the deadline. It never even occurred to me that someone would think that, but when you think about it, it's perfectly logical if you've never done it before: most reoccurring events require you to sign up each time so why not voting too? Someone I talked to thought they weren't registered. They were, but it said their status was "inactive." Turned out that meant they could still vote, but they'd just have to sign an extra little form first. No problem, but how were they supposed to know that?
I've been thinking about Florida 2000 a bunch for obvious reasons. What nobody entirely understood, certainly not Gore's lawyers, until the media recounts, was that the decisive factor wasn't hanging chads, it was the overvotes. Something like a hundred thousand voters punched a candidates' name (disproportionately Gore's), and then proceeded to write in the same candidate's name in the write-in space. And then the voting machine will reject your vote because it looks like you voted twice. The voting labyrinth has random holes in it that most of us could never even think exist, and a hundred thousand people fell into one.
As for apathy, I see this a lot: Young Voters Donât Feel Well-Informed. Some Think That Means They Shouldnât Vote. This is a cultural barrier too, and yelling "get off your ass and vote" at the youth isn't going to fix it.
posted by zachlipton at 1:56 PM on November 9, 2018 [41 favorites]
We have data on this. In 2008, youth turnout was nine percentage points higher in states with election day registration. Who is more likely to have recently moved to an address different from their voter registration? A middle-aged suburban homeowner or a 20-something renter? And if you have recently moved, it's extremely not-obvious what that means for your ability to vote. Can you vote? Do you go to your new or old polling place? What if you moved across state or county lines? What do you tell them? Do you need ID, and if so, what kind? What if you can't get to your old polling place because you moved far away from it? When you do GOTV stuff, these questions come up, and using Snapchat is a whole lot easier than researching the answers.
I talked to a couple of voters in the past week who were interested in voting on Tuesday, but were bummed that they missed the registration deadline. I got them the link to check their voter registration, and turns out they were registered, at their current address no less, and they apparently thought they had to re-register before each election and missed the deadline. It never even occurred to me that someone would think that, but when you think about it, it's perfectly logical if you've never done it before: most reoccurring events require you to sign up each time so why not voting too? Someone I talked to thought they weren't registered. They were, but it said their status was "inactive." Turned out that meant they could still vote, but they'd just have to sign an extra little form first. No problem, but how were they supposed to know that?
I've been thinking about Florida 2000 a bunch for obvious reasons. What nobody entirely understood, certainly not Gore's lawyers, until the media recounts, was that the decisive factor wasn't hanging chads, it was the overvotes. Something like a hundred thousand voters punched a candidates' name (disproportionately Gore's), and then proceeded to write in the same candidate's name in the write-in space. And then the voting machine will reject your vote because it looks like you voted twice. The voting labyrinth has random holes in it that most of us could never even think exist, and a hundred thousand people fell into one.
As for apathy, I see this a lot: Young Voters Donât Feel Well-Informed. Some Think That Means They Shouldnât Vote. This is a cultural barrier too, and yelling "get off your ass and vote" at the youth isn't going to fix it.
posted by zachlipton at 1:56 PM on November 9, 2018 [41 favorites]
my spouse, who has voted in every election since becoming a citizen in 2016, was mailed one such card . . . and then told no record of her registration existed at our polling place.
There's a lot of reasons that you might not be in a particular poll book. The MOST FRUSTRATING THING is due to the lack of established procedures, there's no consistent, efficient way to handle these exceptions, so while you might just have a bad mailcheck ( should be on a separate list ), and just need an affidavit ballot -- which would add like a minute or two to the process, there's a lot of "We have to figure this out", while other voters have to wait.
posted by mikelieman at 1:59 PM on November 9, 2018
There's a lot of reasons that you might not be in a particular poll book. The MOST FRUSTRATING THING is due to the lack of established procedures, there's no consistent, efficient way to handle these exceptions, so while you might just have a bad mailcheck ( should be on a separate list ), and just need an affidavit ballot -- which would add like a minute or two to the process, there's a lot of "We have to figure this out", while other voters have to wait.
posted by mikelieman at 1:59 PM on November 9, 2018
Oh, and "We have to figure" this out becomes a real showstopper if you need to call the Board of Elections. They might or might not have a free line, and no-one wants to leave voicemail.
If our Fire Departments worked like our Elections Boards, we'd all be living in mud huts.
posted by mikelieman at 2:01 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
If our Fire Departments worked like our Elections Boards, we'd all be living in mud huts.
posted by mikelieman at 2:01 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
How Kendra Horn won the upset of the night in OK-05.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 2:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
A good side point about the youth vote that Nate Silver made a couple weeks ago (I can't find a link)... we think of the issue as generational. Like: old people do vote while young people don't. But in fact, the trend is more linear than clifflike: 70-year-olds vote more than people in their 60s, who outvote 50-year-olds, who vote more than 40-year-olds. For some strange reason no one talks about how the lazy middle-aged Americans should get their act together in comparison to their elders.
This is a very good point. Thank you.
I'm a bit skeptical of the generational conflict narrative for two reasons. First, I've had enough bad encounters with people half my age to think that youth are not necessarily going to be as radically progressive as claimed. And second, I feel like the generational conflict narrative has the effect of hindering intergenerational activism on, well, just about any issue out there. I don't know if that's an intentional conspiracy or just the news media's bias for drama and clickbait.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 2:15 PM on November 9, 2018 [11 favorites]
This is a very good point. Thank you.
I'm a bit skeptical of the generational conflict narrative for two reasons. First, I've had enough bad encounters with people half my age to think that youth are not necessarily going to be as radically progressive as claimed. And second, I feel like the generational conflict narrative has the effect of hindering intergenerational activism on, well, just about any issue out there. I don't know if that's an intentional conspiracy or just the news media's bias for drama and clickbait.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 2:15 PM on November 9, 2018 [11 favorites]
An early look at next week's cover, âWelcome to Congress,â by Barry Blitt
posted by growabrain at 2:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by growabrain at 2:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
First, I've had enough bad encounters with people half my age to think that youth are not necessarily going to be as radically progressive as claimed.
Regardless of your anecdotal experience, the exit polls might suggest otherwise. Of those voting in 2018 by age:
18-24: 68% Democratic
25-29: 66% Democratic
30-39: 59% Democratic
40-49: 52% Democratic
It is only 50 and above that you get majority Republican.
If you could get younger people to vote as reliably as those over 50, Democrats would sweep most elections.
posted by JackFlash at 2:25 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
Regardless of your anecdotal experience, the exit polls might suggest otherwise. Of those voting in 2018 by age:
18-24: 68% Democratic
25-29: 66% Democratic
30-39: 59% Democratic
40-49: 52% Democratic
It is only 50 and above that you get majority Republican.
If you could get younger people to vote as reliably as those over 50, Democrats would sweep most elections.
posted by JackFlash at 2:25 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
If you didn't peep the 538 article (and, hey, I so get it) , here's the relevant poop on Florida:
Broward Countyâs undervote rate is way out of line with every other county in Florida, which exhibited, at most, a 0.8-percent difference. ...
To put in perspective what an eye-popping number of undervotes that is, more Broward County residents voted for the down-ballot constitutional offices of chief financial officer and state agriculture commissioner than U.S. Senate â an extremely high-profile election in which $181 million was spent. Generally, the higher the elected office, the less likely voters are to skip it on their ballots. Something sure does seem off in Broward County; we just donât know what yet.
posted by petebest at 2:57 PM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Broward Countyâs undervote rate is way out of line with every other county in Florida, which exhibited, at most, a 0.8-percent difference. ...
To put in perspective what an eye-popping number of undervotes that is, more Broward County residents voted for the down-ballot constitutional offices of chief financial officer and state agriculture commissioner than U.S. Senate â an extremely high-profile election in which $181 million was spent. Generally, the higher the elected office, the less likely voters are to skip it on their ballots. Something sure does seem off in Broward County; we just donât know what yet.
posted by petebest at 2:57 PM on November 9, 2018 [14 favorites]
Cornyn may not be a pile of roaches with access to theatrical-quality latex,
oh, my friend, in some ways Cornyn is worse. I have a grudge against Cornyn. I actually hate him more than I hate Cruz, so for me 2020 is going to be SENATE RACE 2: THIS TIME IT'S PERSONAL. And of course I intend to share all my reasons for hating him with everyone who will fucking listen to me.
The thing is, Ted Cruz is ambitious and wants ALL THE POWER and is always keenly aware of what might get his greedy, grasping little hands that power. So he does, in fact, more or less do his job--his staffers are grimly policed into politely answering their calls, no matter how angry; his office responds promptly to requests; his propaganda machine shows up and fills things out and generally crosses its t's and dots its i's. Cruz, if nothing else, will work hard to make sure that everyone loves him; he'll squeeze his little blobfish body into whatever shape he thinks will appeal to the maximum possible voter base.
Cornyn? Cornyn is just as reactionary as Cruz, and Cornyn is a lazy motherfucker to boot. Cornyn doesn't have Cruz' obsequious, soulless desire to spin himself up as the best candidate to as many people as possible. He's not even willing to fake being a dedicated public official. Cornyn blows off requests and town halls and doesn't even respond when you call. Cornyn might not bear a resemblance to a hollowed out blobfish filled with ambition where a spine ought to go, but he slouches his way into just as much evil and leaves a cloud of insouciant apathy behind him. Or had you not noticed how often John Cornyn is front and center cheering Trump on?
John Cornyn is bought and paid for by monied oil interests and he don't give a rat's ass who knows it. Cornyn is less of a blobfish and more of an impeccably groomed and primped llama, long-wooled and shorn by his owners by turns but always perfectly turned out as he dances around his ring, leaning into every cue as his handlers tug his lead rope this way and that. And, as with any particularly bad-tempered llama, he shits in corners without shame and spits at anyone who mildly inconveniences him or his handlers at every turn.
I am ready to come at Cornyn, my dudes.
posted by sciatrix at 3:12 PM on November 9, 2018 [50 favorites]
oh, my friend, in some ways Cornyn is worse. I have a grudge against Cornyn. I actually hate him more than I hate Cruz, so for me 2020 is going to be SENATE RACE 2: THIS TIME IT'S PERSONAL. And of course I intend to share all my reasons for hating him with everyone who will fucking listen to me.
The thing is, Ted Cruz is ambitious and wants ALL THE POWER and is always keenly aware of what might get his greedy, grasping little hands that power. So he does, in fact, more or less do his job--his staffers are grimly policed into politely answering their calls, no matter how angry; his office responds promptly to requests; his propaganda machine shows up and fills things out and generally crosses its t's and dots its i's. Cruz, if nothing else, will work hard to make sure that everyone loves him; he'll squeeze his little blobfish body into whatever shape he thinks will appeal to the maximum possible voter base.
Cornyn? Cornyn is just as reactionary as Cruz, and Cornyn is a lazy motherfucker to boot. Cornyn doesn't have Cruz' obsequious, soulless desire to spin himself up as the best candidate to as many people as possible. He's not even willing to fake being a dedicated public official. Cornyn blows off requests and town halls and doesn't even respond when you call. Cornyn might not bear a resemblance to a hollowed out blobfish filled with ambition where a spine ought to go, but he slouches his way into just as much evil and leaves a cloud of insouciant apathy behind him. Or had you not noticed how often John Cornyn is front and center cheering Trump on?
John Cornyn is bought and paid for by monied oil interests and he don't give a rat's ass who knows it. Cornyn is less of a blobfish and more of an impeccably groomed and primped llama, long-wooled and shorn by his owners by turns but always perfectly turned out as he dances around his ring, leaning into every cue as his handlers tug his lead rope this way and that. And, as with any particularly bad-tempered llama, he shits in corners without shame and spits at anyone who mildly inconveniences him or his handlers at every turn.
I am ready to come at Cornyn, my dudes.
posted by sciatrix at 3:12 PM on November 9, 2018 [50 favorites]
Regardless of your anecdotal experience, the exit polls might suggest otherwise.
A lion's share of the radicalized hate movements I see, both right-wing and left-wing, come from people under the age of 30. And as we've seen in the last four years, voting Democrat doesn't give you a free pass out of acting on your privilege in harmful ways. So no, I can't extend blanket trust that things will fix themselves if we get more people under 30 in the voting booth. We've already been down that road multiple times in American history.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 3:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
A lion's share of the radicalized hate movements I see, both right-wing and left-wing, come from people under the age of 30. And as we've seen in the last four years, voting Democrat doesn't give you a free pass out of acting on your privilege in harmful ways. So no, I can't extend blanket trust that things will fix themselves if we get more people under 30 in the voting booth. We've already been down that road multiple times in American history.
posted by GenderNullPointerException at 3:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Settlement reached in tight Arizona Senate vote count
And it came to the right conclusion, which is trying to count every vote. Good.
(Meanwhile, Trump and other Republicans are screaming conspiracy theories about Arizona and Florida on Twitter and I cannot stand the bizarre media attitude of Well-That's-Just-How-Things-Are-These-Days, which I guess is because the Crazy Rapist Misogynist Homophobic Racist Fascist Party is one of the two major parties in the U.S.)
posted by kyrademon at 3:15 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
And it came to the right conclusion, which is trying to count every vote. Good.
(Meanwhile, Trump and other Republicans are screaming conspiracy theories about Arizona and Florida on Twitter and I cannot stand the bizarre media attitude of Well-That's-Just-How-Things-Are-These-Days, which I guess is because the Crazy Rapist Misogynist Homophobic Racist Fascist Party is one of the two major parties in the U.S.)
posted by kyrademon at 3:15 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
sciatrix, do you know if anyone's asked Beto about running against him? I mean, I know it's been...3 days? But that's like 6 months in normal earth time.
posted by DebetEsse at 3:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by DebetEsse at 3:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
While it's fun to think about Beto being vindicated by beating Cornyn in 2020, it seems like too risky a move for someone as obviously politically ambitious as O'Rourke. No matter how favorable the polls, I would imagine the prospect of potentially losing two senate runs within the span of two years would be enough to put anyone off the chase for that particular brass ring. But it would certainly be interesting.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:27 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:27 PM on November 9, 2018
Many people have asked Beto about running against him; it's actually a pretty likely thing that Beto will just keep rolling through Texas and campaigning and building steam and support for two years from now. (He stepped into this past race very early on; I first heard his name being thrown into the hat for a Senate run I want to say by December or January.) I don't believe Beto's camp has announced his next plans one way or another. He seems to be reeling a little bit at the closeness of the loss. I would not be surprised if he's thinking about requesting recounts, to be honest (since anyone can request electronic recounts in Texas); I would also not be surprised to see him step into the middle of Texan Democratic party organizing, but I think the good money is on him just.... not stopping his Senate campaign and switching over to Cornyn's seat. Assuming he doesn't just collapse from exhaustion. I think the only thing he's said recently is that he's going home to El Paso for a little bit.
I do not expect him to run for President next year, whether or not people try to coax him to run. I don't think that's where his ambitions lie right now, I definitely don't think he wants to turn on a Presidential campaign right now after working so hard in Texas, and he is generally very good about keeping his word once he has decided to do something.
(Relatedly: oh please oh please oh please let us have another Jeff Sessions situation; apparently Cornyn's name is up for the AG nomination, and I would just about die of delight if we threw Beto up against an unknown for that slot. Sounds like Cornyn knows it too, of course.)
Note that exit polls suggest that native Texans went heavily for O'Rourke and out-of-state transplants went for Cruz, which is another pleasant narrative for him. Not actually that surprising to me here on the ground--everyone knows Cruz wants to be a federal politician advancing Republican issues, not necessarily a Texan politician advancing Texan issues. But conservatives moving here will recognize him right off the bat for exactly that reason, and they won't be as impressed by Beto's commitment to folks out in the rural and border areas who don't see a lot of politicians reaching out for them.
posted by sciatrix at 3:31 PM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
I do not expect him to run for President next year, whether or not people try to coax him to run. I don't think that's where his ambitions lie right now, I definitely don't think he wants to turn on a Presidential campaign right now after working so hard in Texas, and he is generally very good about keeping his word once he has decided to do something.
(Relatedly: oh please oh please oh please let us have another Jeff Sessions situation; apparently Cornyn's name is up for the AG nomination, and I would just about die of delight if we threw Beto up against an unknown for that slot. Sounds like Cornyn knows it too, of course.)
Note that exit polls suggest that native Texans went heavily for O'Rourke and out-of-state transplants went for Cruz, which is another pleasant narrative for him. Not actually that surprising to me here on the ground--everyone knows Cruz wants to be a federal politician advancing Republican issues, not necessarily a Texan politician advancing Texan issues. But conservatives moving here will recognize him right off the bat for exactly that reason, and they won't be as impressed by Beto's commitment to folks out in the rural and border areas who don't see a lot of politicians reaching out for them.
posted by sciatrix at 3:31 PM on November 9, 2018 [16 favorites]
@ForecasterEnten: Tomorrow will tell us a lot more of where Arizona stands given the ballots to be counted, but I saw nothing today to knock me off the idea that Sinema is favored.
posted by zachlipton at 3:32 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 3:32 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Oh--and one more note from the good ol' Tribune: How the race between Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke became the closest in Texas in 40 years.
posted by sciatrix at 3:36 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by sciatrix at 3:36 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
Sinema's (D) lead in AZ is now up to 21,000.
posted by chris24 at 4:05 PM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by chris24 at 4:05 PM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
This is the sort of thing that bringing your kids to the polls helps with, but! Not everyone can do that! And so: yes, we ought to be teaching the practicality of voting. And also getting people enthused to vote. It's not an either/or, as others have already rightly noted.
Here's an idea. 100% tax on campaign ads, with the proceeds earmarked for voter education and voting operations.
You want to spend 60k on ads in a market? You get 30k of ads PLUS you underwrite 30k of actual voting.
What's not to like?
posted by mikelieman at 4:09 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
Here's an idea. 100% tax on campaign ads, with the proceeds earmarked for voter education and voting operations.
You want to spend 60k on ads in a market? You get 30k of ads PLUS you underwrite 30k of actual voting.
What's not to like?
posted by mikelieman at 4:09 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
What's not to like?
It does tend to advantage the richest people who can afford having the cost of campaigning doubled...
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
It does tend to advantage the richest people who can afford having the cost of campaigning doubled...
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
If Beto couldn't beat Ted Cruz, how would be beat someone that by definition will be more likable?
posted by kirkaracha at 4:13 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:13 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Kyrsten Sinema now leads Martha McSally by 21,185 votes.
However, the final result probably won't be known until next week.
posted by kyrademon at 4:14 PM on November 9, 2018
However, the final result probably won't be known until next week.
posted by kyrademon at 4:14 PM on November 9, 2018
Arizona vote count update:
Senate: Sinema [D] +20,203 (1.030%) [this afternoon: +8,343 (0.448%)]
Public Instruction: Hoffman [D] +31,886 (1.643%) [this afternoon: +19,407 (1.053%)]
Sec of State: Gaynor [R] +10,609 (0.539%) [this afternoon: +20,854 (1.116%)]
Crap, we might even pull off this SOS race, which would be big - Gaynor is a Kemp/Kobach clone.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:16 PM on November 9, 2018 [18 favorites]
Senate: Sinema [D] +20,203 (1.030%) [this afternoon: +8,343 (0.448%)]
Public Instruction: Hoffman [D] +31,886 (1.643%) [this afternoon: +19,407 (1.053%)]
Sec of State: Gaynor [R] +10,609 (0.539%) [this afternoon: +20,854 (1.116%)]
Crap, we might even pull off this SOS race, which would be big - Gaynor is a Kemp/Kobach clone.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:16 PM on November 9, 2018 [18 favorites]
It does tend to advantage the richest people who can afford having the cost of campaigning doubled...
Well, that's Plan B. Plan A is straight up outlawing political adverts, but that's trying to push the overton window too far.
posted by mikelieman at 4:16 PM on November 9, 2018
Well, that's Plan B. Plan A is straight up outlawing political adverts, but that's trying to push the overton window too far.
posted by mikelieman at 4:16 PM on November 9, 2018
I know someone here is from Colorado - Dems now control both houses of the legislature and every constitutional office for the first time since 1939.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
Hmmm, if I'm decoding this correctly, it looks like moderate GOPers in the Texas House are making a move to work with Dems to install a moderate as speaker and shut out the wingnuts.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:22 PM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:22 PM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
Footnote to that, pre-election the Texas House was 93-55 GOP (2 vacancies). It is now 83-67 GOP.
(I *will* have a final update on all legislatures and constitutional offices before this thread closes.)
posted by Chrysostom at 4:30 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
(I *will* have a final update on all legislatures and constitutional offices before this thread closes.)
posted by Chrysostom at 4:30 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
It's not either/or. Voter apathy is a huge problem and voter suppression is a huge problem. They do not affect all voters or all states equally. They both need to be addressed. You are all correct in your arguments.
Just wanted to point out that my initial comment in this thread was to someone who acknowledged that voter suppression is a thing and that it is used against communities of color, but said that they did not believe it was a problem (at all) specifically for college students. This is not at all to pick on this specific person: it fits with the general dominant narrative that I've seen both in the mainstream media and on MeFi, i.e., that younger people are too checked out, apathetic, lazy, or disorganized to vote, not that they are targeted for voter suppression (remember that NYMag article?). I haven't seen nearly as many people pointing to the evidence that college students are absolutely specifically targeted by voting place closures, disinformation and threats, laws that mean they would have to incur large expenses to vote, laws that make it difficult to prove residency for students, etc. If you ignore the systematic obstacles to voting that are introduced for college students and 20-somethings, then you're shooting yourself in the foot when it comes to actually rectifying this problem.
(To be totally clear, I'm not comparing college students to communities of color in any respect beyond the fact that they tend to vote in ways that the GOP dislikes and face some structural obstacles to voting that are similar.)
posted by en forme de poire at 4:35 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Just wanted to point out that my initial comment in this thread was to someone who acknowledged that voter suppression is a thing and that it is used against communities of color, but said that they did not believe it was a problem (at all) specifically for college students. This is not at all to pick on this specific person: it fits with the general dominant narrative that I've seen both in the mainstream media and on MeFi, i.e., that younger people are too checked out, apathetic, lazy, or disorganized to vote, not that they are targeted for voter suppression (remember that NYMag article?). I haven't seen nearly as many people pointing to the evidence that college students are absolutely specifically targeted by voting place closures, disinformation and threats, laws that mean they would have to incur large expenses to vote, laws that make it difficult to prove residency for students, etc. If you ignore the systematic obstacles to voting that are introduced for college students and 20-somethings, then you're shooting yourself in the foot when it comes to actually rectifying this problem.
(To be totally clear, I'm not comparing college students to communities of color in any respect beyond the fact that they tend to vote in ways that the GOP dislikes and face some structural obstacles to voting that are similar.)
posted by en forme de poire at 4:35 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Most of those [questions about voting] are easily answered at vote.org
It is not as easy as it should be but it is not that hard.
Okay, so that takes care of the people who a) have a computer, b) know about that web site, and c) speak English. What about everyone else?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:37 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
It is not as easy as it should be but it is not that hard.
Okay, so that takes care of the people who a) have a computer, b) know about that web site, and c) speak English. What about everyone else?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:37 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
The estimated outstanding ballots for Arizona are now at 362,000.
posted by kyrademon at 4:43 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by kyrademon at 4:43 PM on November 9, 2018
From vote.org: You have the right to vote. If anyone tries to stop you, call the Election Protection Hotline at 1-866-687-8683. We also wrote a handy guide that outlines your voting rights.
It's easy to say this, and it's useful to say this, but when (for example) the literal actual governor of your state is making false claims that you will be arrested if you try to vote as a college student without an in-state ID and car registration, that is difficult to debunk effectively. Most people do not want to risk being arrested for """voter fraud""" especially considering how trigger-happy Republicans are.
posted by en forme de poire at 4:43 PM on November 9, 2018 [13 favorites]
It's easy to say this, and it's useful to say this, but when (for example) the literal actual governor of your state is making false claims that you will be arrested if you try to vote as a college student without an in-state ID and car registration, that is difficult to debunk effectively. Most people do not want to risk being arrested for """voter fraud""" especially considering how trigger-happy Republicans are.
posted by en forme de poire at 4:43 PM on November 9, 2018 [13 favorites]
15 House Republicans with A NRA ratings lost on Tuesday. All 15 were replaced by Democrats with F NRA ratings.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:48 PM on November 9, 2018 [42 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 4:48 PM on November 9, 2018 [42 favorites]
Charles Pierce: Florida Is Living Up to Its Batsh*t Expectations: Rick Scott is using his authority as governor to ratfck the election process with armed law-enforcement personnel.
The People Sickened By America's Largest Coal Ash Spill May Finally Get Some Justice: This story is one reason Trump's love for Big Beautiful Coal should give you pause.
posted by homunculus at 4:50 PM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
The People Sickened By America's Largest Coal Ash Spill May Finally Get Some Justice: This story is one reason Trump's love for Big Beautiful Coal should give you pause.
posted by homunculus at 4:50 PM on November 9, 2018 [10 favorites]
I am ready to come at Cornyn, my dudes.Everything you wrote about Cornyn could easily be applied to Sullivan (R-AK) (except that his office does eventually respond. Two to four months after requested, granted, and always with a condescending letter full of partisan talking points that may or may not even apply to the issue raised, but they do respond.)
In any case: 2020 is coming and we will not forget.
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:58 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
Hmmm, if I'm decoding this correctly, it looks like moderate GOPers in the Texas House are making a move to work with Dems to install a moderate as speaker and shut out the wingnuts.
Just to note this was already the case in the TX House -- Straus was kept in power by Democrats and mostly moderate Republicans. Even this is not particularly odd for that chamber, where Speakers assembling more personal than partisan coalitions behind them has been boringly normal.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:07 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Just to note this was already the case in the TX House -- Straus was kept in power by Democrats and mostly moderate Republicans. Even this is not particularly odd for that chamber, where Speakers assembling more personal than partisan coalitions behind them has been boringly normal.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:07 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Hmmm, if I'm decoding this correctly, it looks like moderate GOPers in the Texas House are making a move to work with Dems to install a moderate as speaker and shut out the wingnuts.
YES thank fuck, I was hoping they would do this. Straus was an asshole but he was an asshole with actual principles and one of the very few NeverTrump-style Republicans fighting those fuckwits with everything he had; he is almost certainly the main reason that Texas does not have a trans-exclusive bathroom bill today. And he basically sacrificed his career for that. I've been scared of the Lege with wingnuts ruling in the Senate and House for months, and the extra twelve seats that we flipped in the Texas Lege (including a woman we've been cheering on since she decided to run in 2016! go Erin Zwiener, I'm thrilled we share a first name and I'm thrilled she's joining four other freshmen queer women in the Lege) have been making me so happy this week.
posted by sciatrix at 5:09 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
YES thank fuck, I was hoping they would do this. Straus was an asshole but he was an asshole with actual principles and one of the very few NeverTrump-style Republicans fighting those fuckwits with everything he had; he is almost certainly the main reason that Texas does not have a trans-exclusive bathroom bill today. And he basically sacrificed his career for that. I've been scared of the Lege with wingnuts ruling in the Senate and House for months, and the extra twelve seats that we flipped in the Texas Lege (including a woman we've been cheering on since she decided to run in 2016! go Erin Zwiener, I'm thrilled we share a first name and I'm thrilled she's joining four other freshmen queer women in the Lege) have been making me so happy this week.
posted by sciatrix at 5:09 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
CA-48 Update
Rouda (D): 105, 047 (51.8%)
Rohrabacher (R): 97,719 (48.2%)
Roudaâs lead is 7,328, up from yesterdayâs 4,756.
(Still counting ballots, so donât go start counting chickens yet.)
posted by notyou at 5:11 PM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
Rouda (D): 105, 047 (51.8%)
Rohrabacher (R): 97,719 (48.2%)
Roudaâs lead is 7,328, up from yesterdayâs 4,756.
(Still counting ballots, so donât go start counting chickens yet.)
posted by notyou at 5:11 PM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
Speaking of queer Texas women, any updates on Gina Ortiz Jones?
posted by sciatrix at 5:13 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by sciatrix at 5:13 PM on November 9, 2018
I'm not so sure it's counting chickens. Find me an example of a count in CA of an urban/suburban district getting more Republican as the count progresses and maybe I'll agree. But I don't think you can.
posted by Justinian at 5:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 5:19 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
In fact NYT has now called CA-25 for Hill (D) over Knight (R)!
posted by Justinian at 5:20 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 5:20 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
Yeah I agree itâs unlikely the trend is going to reverse, but Iâm not tempting fate.
posted by notyou at 5:34 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by notyou at 5:34 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Ortiz Jones is down 1150 votes.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:35 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 5:35 PM on November 9, 2018
Just to note this was already the case in the TX House -- Straus was kept in power by Democrats and mostly moderate Republicans.
Sure, but I think it was something of an open question going forward, post-Straus.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:37 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Sure, but I think it was something of an open question going forward, post-Straus.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:37 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Dems also lead narrowly in two GOP-held seats in the CA Senate. If either one flips, they have a supermajority (they have one in the CA Assembly). Meaning they can actually do stuff with taxes.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:43 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 5:43 PM on November 9, 2018 [4 favorites]
They could repeal prop 13! We could have a functioning and reliable tax base!
spoiler: no :(
posted by Justinian at 5:45 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
spoiler: no :(
posted by Justinian at 5:45 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
So, this is interesting:
Jerry Ianelli (Miami New Times): NEW: I obtained photos that appear to show tons of uncounted ballots sitting inside a Miami-area mailroom in Opa-locka. Miami-Dade Elections spox says they're aware of the reported ballots but can't do anythingposted by Chrysostom at 5:50 PM on November 9, 2018 [31 favorites]
Miami-Dade Elections spokesperson said that it was on voters to mail ballots back to the county by 7 p.m. on election day, but multiple sources tell me they're worried that USPS had left ballots sitting inside the mailroom that could have been counted
Daniel Jacobson (Obama WH lawyer): Um, this could be a gamechanger for both the Senate and Gubernatorial races if accurate. If these ballots were received by USPS before Election Day and it was USPS' fault that they weren't delivered, very strong case for counting.
The Arizona, Florida, and Georgia election recounts, explained - By Kay Steiger, Li Zhou, Tara Golshan, and P.R. Lockhart for Vox
Updated as of 11/9, 8 PM ET, including the initial counting going on.
posted by ZeusHumms at 5:51 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Updated as of 11/9, 8 PM ET, including the initial counting going on.
posted by ZeusHumms at 5:51 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
you know, I'm not aware of whether the legislature can pass laws to repeal things enacted by ballot measure. Like Prop 13. As a resident I should probably know this.
edit: Ballotpedia suggests that they can't.
Prop 13 will gut our tax base forever. forever.
posted by Justinian at 5:54 PM on November 9, 2018
edit: Ballotpedia suggests that they can't.
Prop 13 will gut our tax base forever. forever.
posted by Justinian at 5:54 PM on November 9, 2018
Devin Nunes winning margins:
2014: +44
2016: +35
2018: ~+10
If these trends continue....aaayyy!!!
posted by Chrysostom at 5:59 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
2014: +44
2016: +35
2018: ~+10
If these trends continue....aaayyy!!!
posted by Chrysostom at 5:59 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
Prop 13 will gut our tax base forever. forever.
We could... make a new ballot measure to fix it? (I understand some of the problems Prop 13 was trying to fix - people getting evicted from homes they'd owned for 50 years, because now those homes were valued a lot more, and the retirees living in them couldn't afford the new property tax. But there's got to be some way to let people keep their family homes, without gutting the tax system so much that we can't afford schools.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 6:04 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
We could... make a new ballot measure to fix it? (I understand some of the problems Prop 13 was trying to fix - people getting evicted from homes they'd owned for 50 years, because now those homes were valued a lot more, and the retirees living in them couldn't afford the new property tax. But there's got to be some way to let people keep their family homes, without gutting the tax system so much that we can't afford schools.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 6:04 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Harder's taken the lead in CA-10. California is a freaking GOP killing field.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 6:06 PM on November 9, 2018 [15 favorites]
You could keep the current system for homeowners (maybe tie relief to income), but not for businesses, who can hold property basically forever, which blocks reassessment.
posted by notyou at 6:10 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by notyou at 6:10 PM on November 9, 2018
White House pissed that McSally isn't pushing conspiracy theories.
I'm not going to say this very often, but I appreciate this from AZ gov Ducey [R]:
I'm not going to say this very often, but I appreciate this from AZ gov Ducey [R]:
We often hear the phrase: Every vote matters. And the #AZSen race is proof. So letâs get this right. All legally cast votes MUST be counted. Lawful votes in EVERY county in the state MUST be counted.posted by Chrysostom at 6:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [30 favorites]
Letâs follow the law, count the votes, prevent any cheating, and heed the will of the voters.
Devin Nunes winning margins:
2014: +44
2016: +35
2018: ~+10
I sure hope the new House leadership opens an ethics investigation of Nunes on January 22nd, for all of his partisan, rule-breaking, sneaking out at night with secret documents and collaborating with Trump bullshit. I have no idea if it's realistic to imagine they could expel him from the House, but they definitely should.
posted by msalt at 6:18 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
2014: +44
2016: +35
2018: ~+10
I sure hope the new House leadership opens an ethics investigation of Nunes on January 22nd, for all of his partisan, rule-breaking, sneaking out at night with secret documents and collaborating with Trump bullshit. I have no idea if it's realistic to imagine they could expel him from the House, but they definitely should.
posted by msalt at 6:18 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
You could keep the current system for homeowners (maybe tie relief to income), but not for businesses, who can hold property basically forever, which blocks reassessment.
My proposal would be a $1 million homestead tax exemption (ie no property taxes at all on the first million of your primary residence's value.) No limits above that, none on corporations.
The whole Prop 13 scam was based on naked self-interest of voters. OK, how do you guys like FREE? No property taxes at all, and let's screw over rich guys and corporations. Who's with me?!?!?
posted by msalt at 6:21 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
My proposal would be a $1 million homestead tax exemption (ie no property taxes at all on the first million of your primary residence's value.) No limits above that, none on corporations.
The whole Prop 13 scam was based on naked self-interest of voters. OK, how do you guys like FREE? No property taxes at all, and let's screw over rich guys and corporations. Who's with me?!?!?
posted by msalt at 6:21 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
I have no idea if it's realistic to imagine they could expel him from the House, but they definitely should.
You can do it; you need 2/3 of the chamber in question. It is *exceedingly* rare - last one was Trafficant, before that Abscam stuff in 1980.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:23 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
You can do it; you need 2/3 of the chamber in question. It is *exceedingly* rare - last one was Trafficant, before that Abscam stuff in 1980.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:23 PM on November 9, 2018 [1 favorite]
Fellow democracyphiles, allow me to set down my victory doughnut to share this wonderful passage from The Rude Pundit link shared by h-dogg, above.
*ahem*
Democrats began Tuesday by having no power in federal government (beyond the Senate filibuster) and ended it with full subpoena and investigative power as the majority in the House of Representatives. That's a fucking unequivocal win, taking some longtime seats from the filthy hands of the GOP. And bathe yourself in the blood of the deaths of the political careers of Kris Kobach, Dana Rohrbacher, and Scott Walker, among so many other fucknuts.
Ahh. And also with you.
*cheers_doughnut.gif*
posted by petebest at 6:28 PM on November 9, 2018 [19 favorites]
*ahem*
Democrats began Tuesday by having no power in federal government (beyond the Senate filibuster) and ended it with full subpoena and investigative power as the majority in the House of Representatives. That's a fucking unequivocal win, taking some longtime seats from the filthy hands of the GOP. And bathe yourself in the blood of the deaths of the political careers of Kris Kobach, Dana Rohrbacher, and Scott Walker, among so many other fucknuts.
Ahh. And also with you.
*cheers_doughnut.gif*
posted by petebest at 6:28 PM on November 9, 2018 [19 favorites]
you know, I'm not aware of whether the legislature can pass laws to repeal things enacted by ballot measure. Like Prop 13.
Prop 13 is an amendment to the California constitution. It can't be changed by the legislature. The legislature can propose a change by a two-thirds majority, but then it must be approved by a citizen vote. So why even bother. You can just skip the first step and repeal Prop 13 directly by citizen initiative.
Here's the crazy thing. The California constitution is completely backwards. Citizens can amend the constitution by a simple majority initiative. But the legislature can only pass a routine budget with a two-thirds majority.
That makes it ridiculously simple to change the constitution and simultaneously makes it ridiculously difficult to pass a simple annual budget. What an upside down mess.
So by crippling the legislature, you effectively end up running large portions of the government by the whims of citizen initiatives. That's a large part of the reason there are always a slew of initiatives on the ballot.
posted by JackFlash at 6:30 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
Prop 13 is an amendment to the California constitution. It can't be changed by the legislature. The legislature can propose a change by a two-thirds majority, but then it must be approved by a citizen vote. So why even bother. You can just skip the first step and repeal Prop 13 directly by citizen initiative.
Here's the crazy thing. The California constitution is completely backwards. Citizens can amend the constitution by a simple majority initiative. But the legislature can only pass a routine budget with a two-thirds majority.
That makes it ridiculously simple to change the constitution and simultaneously makes it ridiculously difficult to pass a simple annual budget. What an upside down mess.
So by crippling the legislature, you effectively end up running large portions of the government by the whims of citizen initiatives. That's a large part of the reason there are always a slew of initiatives on the ballot.
posted by JackFlash at 6:30 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
It is *exceedingly* rare - last one was Trafficant, before that Abscam stuff in 1980.
when someone says that some minor congressional rule is âexceedingly rareâ, i usually interpret that as âhas not been attempted since Reconstructionâ.
jim trafficant was 2002! thatâs like yesterday!
(on the other hand trafficant had absolutely no friends in Congress and was a pariah in the house for years before he finally got nailed for corruption.)
posted by murphy slaw at 6:31 PM on November 9, 2018
when someone says that some minor congressional rule is âexceedingly rareâ, i usually interpret that as âhas not been attempted since Reconstructionâ.
jim trafficant was 2002! thatâs like yesterday!
(on the other hand trafficant had absolutely no friends in Congress and was a pariah in the house for years before he finally got nailed for corruption.)
posted by murphy slaw at 6:31 PM on November 9, 2018
Yeah, but it was only twice since the Civil War! Although, to be fair, there were some more attempts.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:33 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 6:33 PM on November 9, 2018
High turnout in CA this year is going to raise the requirements to get initiatives on the ballots next time.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:34 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 6:34 PM on November 9, 2018 [2 favorites]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez May Have Been Elected to Congress But She Still Canât Afford DC Rent
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Slams Fox News For Laughing At Her DC Rent Problem. The representative-elect criticized Fox panelists for mocking working-class people â and for mispronouncing her name.
posted by homunculus at 7:16 PM on November 9, 2018 [19 favorites]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Slams Fox News For Laughing At Her DC Rent Problem. The representative-elect criticized Fox panelists for mocking working-class people â and for mispronouncing her name.
posted by homunculus at 7:16 PM on November 9, 2018 [19 favorites]
(putting together another Election Day thread)
posted by Chrysostom at 7:18 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 7:18 PM on November 9, 2018 [8 favorites]
Exit polls show Golden a heavy favorite to win ME-02 instant runoff.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:35 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:35 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
(waiting, humming Jeopardy tune)
Christine Lavin's lyrics: (1993)
Christine Lavin's lyrics: (1993)
Back in high school, you were a square,posted by mikelieman at 7:41 PM on November 9, 2018 [6 favorites]
Carried books and slide rules everywhere.
You scored straight Aâs year after year.
They called you geek; they called you queer.
For everyone who laughed in your face,
Nowâs your chance to put them in their place.
âCause youâre on a TV show
Where your big brain wins big dough.
Boom. Boom.
Exit polls show Golden a heavy favorite to win ME-02 instant runoff.
Okay, that just reads dirty.
Approved.
posted by petebest at 7:41 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Okay, that just reads dirty.
Approved.
posted by petebest at 7:41 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
Harder's taken the lead in CA-10. California is a freaking GOP killing field.
I... think we're gonna run the table and flip all 6 seats. CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-49! 2 have already been called, we're ahead in 2 more now, and we're behind by 2-2.5k in the other two. I will never doubt you again, california.
posted by Justinian at 8:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
I... think we're gonna run the table and flip all 6 seats. CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-49! 2 have already been called, we're ahead in 2 more now, and we're behind by 2-2.5k in the other two. I will never doubt you again, california.
posted by Justinian at 8:14 PM on November 9, 2018 [12 favorites]
The crypto-GOP guy is losing for Insurance Commissioner, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 PM on November 9, 2018 [5 favorites]
Can any Congress-watchers comment on what dangers the lame-duck session might hold for healthcare law? I seem to recall speculation during the various ACA repeal pushes that the Republicans could potentially revive their efforts after the election. This is an even bigger concern with McCain out of the picture. OTOH, I thought they blew their shots at reconciliation on the failed repeal and the tax bill. Is ACA repeal via reconciliation something they can still force through in the next two months, and how likely is it to happen?
posted by Rhaomi at 8:24 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by Rhaomi at 8:24 PM on November 9, 2018
Even in bright red Oklahoma my high school history teacher won a state seat as part of the new "fund education fuckers" Teacher Caucus. He's a good liberal and smart as hell. Even in the most partisan Republican states, change is a comin'.
posted by downtohisturtles at 8:27 PM on November 9, 2018 [30 favorites]
posted by downtohisturtles at 8:27 PM on November 9, 2018 [30 favorites]
When did Justinian become the voice of calm, mildly optimistic reason? I mean I knew unexpected things would be happening in 2018 but really now writers
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:27 PM on November 9, 2018 [23 favorites]
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:27 PM on November 9, 2018 [23 favorites]
A Blue Wave does wonders for the ol' JCMOL.
posted by petebest at 8:46 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by petebest at 8:46 PM on November 9, 2018 [3 favorites]
All thread long, my brain kept reading the thread title as "ANGER IS THE COLOR OF YOUR ENERGY" to the tune of that 311 song. So, thank you for the new post so I can eventually get that song out of my head!
posted by jason_steakums at 9:15 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 9:15 PM on November 9, 2018 [9 favorites]
With a completely different song lyric title!
posted by Chrysostom at 9:20 PM on November 9, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 9:20 PM on November 9, 2018
Is it okay if I brag here for a minute about this great idea I had? I spent the last fifteen months here in the blue end of CA-10 working hard to support our grassroots canvassing operation. Mostly, that was assembling and maintaining the binders of useful materials we sent out with our canvassers: reg forms, vote-by-mail apps, candidate position summaries, etc. Anyway, one day I was dropping off completed voter applications at the registrar's office when they had just started to send vote-by-mail ballots out to voters. I asked for, and got, one of the envelopes that they were going to use to send out the ballots, then made a bunch of copies for our canvassers to carry. One canvasser showed it to a voter who went and dug her ballot out of the recycling bin where she had tossed it because she thought it was junk mail!
posted by ogooglebar at 7:54 AM on November 10, 2018 [26 favorites]
posted by ogooglebar at 7:54 AM on November 10, 2018 [26 favorites]
Great, now Republicans are going to make it illegal to xerox ballot envelopes.
posted by rhizome at 8:46 AM on November 10, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by rhizome at 8:46 AM on November 10, 2018 [2 favorites]
Florida Secretary of State has ordered recounts for Governor, Senate and Ag Secretary
posted by hollygoheavy at 12:00 PM on November 10, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by hollygoheavy at 12:00 PM on November 10, 2018 [1 favorite]
ogooglebar, that is a GREAT idea - well done!
Thank you for sharing that, and thank you for all your hard work over the past fifteen months to support canvassing in CA-10! You rock!
posted by kristi at 12:47 PM on November 10, 2018 [5 favorites]
Thank you for sharing that, and thank you for all your hard work over the past fifteen months to support canvassing in CA-10! You rock!
posted by kristi at 12:47 PM on November 10, 2018 [5 favorites]
Even in bright red Oklahoma my high school history teacher won a state seat as part of the new "fund education fuckers" Teacher Caucus.
Awesome! But your HS teach might use this as a teachable moment about the importance of punctuation.
"fund education fuckers" is what the Koch Brothers do. I think what you meant was,
"Fund education, fuckers!"
posted by msalt at 1:16 PM on November 10, 2018 [16 favorites]
Awesome! But your HS teach might use this as a teachable moment about the importance of punctuation.
"fund education fuckers" is what the Koch Brothers do. I think what you meant was,
"Fund education, fuckers!"
posted by msalt at 1:16 PM on November 10, 2018 [16 favorites]
Continued... (New thread)
(I will be *pissed* if the elections drag on and I have to keep two mega thread tabs open and constantly refreshing on an ongoing basis. Come on, democracy in action, hurry up!)
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:13 PM on November 11, 2018 [1 favorite]
(I will be *pissed* if the elections drag on and I have to keep two mega thread tabs open and constantly refreshing on an ongoing basis. Come on, democracy in action, hurry up!)
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:13 PM on November 11, 2018 [1 favorite]
The original megathread grew from the 2016 election thread, I see no reason to imagine that we won't just keeping adding another parallel hellthread every two years as things continue to degenerate.
posted by contraption at 3:26 PM on November 11, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by contraption at 3:26 PM on November 11, 2018 [18 favorites]
ಠ_ŕ˛
posted by cortex at 3:27 PM on November 11, 2018 [21 favorites]
posted by cortex at 3:27 PM on November 11, 2018 [21 favorites]
I hope you step on a lego, contraption.
posted by phearlez at 5:06 PM on November 11, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by phearlez at 5:06 PM on November 11, 2018 [5 favorites]
Barefoot.
posted by phearlez at 5:06 PM on November 11, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by phearlez at 5:06 PM on November 11, 2018 [4 favorites]
I have a 3 year old, so I already do that multiple times per day. You think you can phase me? Take a shot.
posted by contraption at 1:07 PM on November 12, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by contraption at 1:07 PM on November 12, 2018 [7 favorites]
I hope you get suplexed on lego?
posted by benzenedream at 2:21 PM on November 12, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by benzenedream at 2:21 PM on November 12, 2018 [5 favorites]
Did you really just drop a come at me, legbro? Bravo.
posted by phearlez at 6:19 AM on November 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by phearlez at 6:19 AM on November 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
Donald Trump is president and I get kicked in the balls all day long by someone I'm genetically programed to love unconditionally. I just don't think there's much you could do to me.
posted by contraption at 1:32 PM on November 13, 2018 [15 favorites]
posted by contraption at 1:32 PM on November 13, 2018 [15 favorites]
« Older What made this slug-a-seabed rise as killer? | Worst. Ranked list. EVAR. Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
Colorado - Amendment X - would remove the definition of industrial hemp from the state constitution. The US Farm Bill negotiations slated for the upcoming congressional lame duck session include removing hemp from the Controlled Substances Act, Amendment X would change Colorado's definition of hemp from constitutional to statutory thus removing an obstacle for Colorado's agricultural industry to enter the hemp market.
Michigan - Proposal 1 - would legalize the use and sale of recreational marijuana, subject to a 10% tax, for individuals over the age of 21 and allow possession of up to 2.5oz and grow up to 12 plants for personal consumption (more generous limits than most states). Latest polls show it is likely to pass, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Whitmer supports the measure, Republican candidate Schuette personally opposes it but says, "as governor he will respect the will of the voters."
Missouri has three competing medical use initiatives -
- Amendment 2 - enjoys broadest support from legalization activists, would tax medical marijuana at 4% to generate an estimated $18 million with proceeds going to fund veterans health care programs. It is the only initiative that would allow for home growing; patients could grow up to six plants, caretakers could cultivate up to eighteen.
- Amendment 3 - a pet project of attorney/surgeon Brad Bradshaw who believes cannabis can cure cancer, would tax medical marijuana at 15% generating an estimated $66 million annually to fund a biomedical research institute that would be directed by Bradshaw with no state oversight except for a board of directors appointed by Bradshaw.
- Proposition C - state law proposition supported by lobbyists and dark money groups, would tax medical marijuana at 2% to generate an estimated $10 million annually and spend the proceeds on services for veterans, drug treatment, early childhood education and public safety. Only initiative that would require local community approval for any medical use facility.
If voters approve multiple initiatives, the constitutional amendments take precedence over the state law proposition. If both constitutional amendments pass, the one with the most "yes" votes will take effect.North Dakota - Measure 3 - would legalize recreational use for individuals over the age of 21 and create an automatic expungement process for prior marijuana convictions. This measure breaks from the familiar framework used in other successful state legalization efforts; it sets no limits on possession and does not create a regulatory structure to govern sales, leaving those issues for the legislature to address. Polling has been inconsistent.
Ohio - The municipalities of Dayton, Fremont, Garrettsville, Norwood, Oregon, and Windham have ballot measures that would locally decriminalize misdemeanor possession or set the penalties to "the lowest penalty allowed by state law."
Utah - Proposition 2 - would legalize medical use for individuals with qualifying illnesses. While polling indicates it is likely to pass, medical marijuana is coming either way as Governor Herbert has called for a post-election special legislative session to pass compromise legislation that modifies provisions of Proposition 2 negotiated between supporters and opponents.
Wisconsin - sixteen counties and two cities have various non-binding advisory referendum questions that would encourage state lawmakers to relax or eliminate prohibitions on pot ranging from decriminalization, medical use, to legalizing and taxing recreational use.
posted by peeedro at 9:04 PM on November 5, 2018 [60 favorites]