What they think about us doesn’t matter.
January 15, 2023 8:27 AM Subscribe
We Convinced Our School to Bring Back Masks
"Next, we had to convince the school.
I was exhausted from getting him on board, so my spouse offered to do most of the talking. We made a list of points:
Covid is not over.
Covid is more like HIV than the flu.
Mild cases don’t spare you.
The less Covid, the better.
Immunity debt is an urban legend.
Masks don’t have to be permanent.
Other cultures mask.
Masks = caring.
Caring is a valuable lesson for kids.
We made some practical arguments, too. "
"Next, we had to convince the school.
I was exhausted from getting him on board, so my spouse offered to do most of the talking. We made a list of points:
Covid is not over.
Covid is more like HIV than the flu.
Mild cases don’t spare you.
The less Covid, the better.
Immunity debt is an urban legend.
Masks don’t have to be permanent.
Other cultures mask.
Masks = caring.
Caring is a valuable lesson for kids.
We made some practical arguments, too. "
> Covid is more like HIV than the flu.
It is not.
I believe that they are referring more to the perceived severity rather than the specific symptoms.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:35 AM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
It is not.
I believe that they are referring more to the perceived severity rather than the specific symptoms.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:35 AM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
Even then, it's a super loaded comparison that doesn't bear out in a lot of ways.
posted by sagc at 8:40 AM on January 15, 2023 [66 favorites]
posted by sagc at 8:40 AM on January 15, 2023 [66 favorites]
It's just very strange to drop a comparison to something like HIV with no context or explanation. Using HIV as shorthand for "bad" is very silly because we all know by now that pandemic flu can be very very bad on its own; there's absolutely no reason to make spurious comparisons with a totally different disease.
(also, a segment of doomer types online have convinced each other that COVID is inducing widespread immune deficiencies. In that context you see people dooming about COVID-induced AIDS, which I cannot stress enough isn't a thing)
posted by BungaDunga at 8:42 AM on January 15, 2023 [23 favorites]
(also, a segment of doomer types online have convinced each other that COVID is inducing widespread immune deficiencies. In that context you see people dooming about COVID-induced AIDS, which I cannot stress enough isn't a thing)
posted by BungaDunga at 8:42 AM on January 15, 2023 [23 favorites]
In some ways it's worse. It's far easier to get covid even with all the protections, to the point that it's virtually inevitable in the long run. But the mention of HIV rings into question reason and proportionality behind the argument.
posted by 2N2222 at 8:44 AM on January 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by 2N2222 at 8:44 AM on January 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
and there's a very nasty history of panics about HIV in schools so it really has awful resonances to try to make that comparison when talking about schools
posted by BungaDunga at 8:46 AM on January 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 8:46 AM on January 15, 2023 [25 favorites]
In the article, there is a link to a number of covid studies the author assembled. Many of them point out the similarities to how HIV and covid attack/change T-cells. It doesn't seem out of line to compare the two to each other, based on the information the author is referencing.
posted by Darkivel at 8:47 AM on January 15, 2023 [37 favorites]
posted by Darkivel at 8:47 AM on January 15, 2023 [37 favorites]
I'm not sure about the HIV comparison either but I do like the idea of convincing the schools to require masks. One of my sons has three young children ages 7, 4, and 9 months. The oldest is in the local public school, the middle one goes to half-day nursery school- a big adjustment for a child who doesn't remember the before-covid-times-, the baby stays home. The two older ones keep bringing home sickness, they've had colds, they've had RSV. Just after xmas the whole family flew across the country to visit another grandparent they had not been able to see for three years. Everyone, including the baby and the grandparent, ended up getting covid in spite of their fully-vaxxed status. Thankfully they all had fairly mild cases.
I hope their schools consider bringing back mask requirements, especially since they live in a cold climate and the kids cannot spend much time outdoors in the winter. Anybody who has ever spent day after day at home with cranky sick children ought to agree.
posted by mareli at 8:58 AM on January 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
I hope their schools consider bringing back mask requirements, especially since they live in a cold climate and the kids cannot spend much time outdoors in the winter. Anybody who has ever spent day after day at home with cranky sick children ought to agree.
posted by mareli at 8:58 AM on January 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
In the article, there is a link to a number of covid studies the author assembled. Many of them point out the similarities to how HIV and covid attack/change T-cells. It doesn't seem out of line to compare the two to each other, based on the information the author is referencing.
Which is a relatively academic point that is difficult for the average layperson to interpret.
It's mention seems more a placeholder for "frightening".
posted by 2N2222 at 8:59 AM on January 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Which is a relatively academic point that is difficult for the average layperson to interpret.
It's mention seems more a placeholder for "frightening".
posted by 2N2222 at 8:59 AM on January 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
I don't want to belabor the point, so I'm going to say this and move on, but I believe the point the article's author is making is that a lot of information is coming out that covid has a permanent or semi-permanent affect on immune systems. (This is one of the speculated reasons why the RSV/flu season hit so hard this year, with a higher hospitalization rate. Not because of so-called immunity debt, which epidemiologists say isn't a thing, but because covid has done bad things to people's immune systems.)
Covid seems to be an immune-affecting disease. Like HIV. (And measles, for that matter.) A lot of the research articles she linked talk about that. I can't know her mind, but she seems to be making a good faith comparison, not trying to scaremonger.
posted by Darkivel at 9:08 AM on January 15, 2023 [62 favorites]
Covid seems to be an immune-affecting disease. Like HIV. (And measles, for that matter.) A lot of the research articles she linked talk about that. I can't know her mind, but she seems to be making a good faith comparison, not trying to scaremonger.
posted by Darkivel at 9:08 AM on January 15, 2023 [62 favorites]
It doesn't seem out of line to compare the two to each other, based on the information the author is referencing.
Anyone can cherrypick scary-looking data. Just because two diseases interact with t-cells doesn't mean they're the same or even similar. Are there similar studies about whether and how influenza and other respiratory diseases impact t-cells? I don't know. You can easily find papers that point to covid infections and vaccines resulting in durable immunity. This is what I mean by cherrypicking.
It's also important to ask questions like, if this were true, why is the northern hemisphere flu season looking so normal?
posted by BungaDunga at 9:08 AM on January 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
Anyone can cherrypick scary-looking data. Just because two diseases interact with t-cells doesn't mean they're the same or even similar. Are there similar studies about whether and how influenza and other respiratory diseases impact t-cells? I don't know. You can easily find papers that point to covid infections and vaccines resulting in durable immunity. This is what I mean by cherrypicking.
It's also important to ask questions like, if this were true, why is the northern hemisphere flu season looking so normal?
posted by BungaDunga at 9:08 AM on January 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
It's mention seems more a placeholder for "frightening".
"Frightening,"yes, but in large part because of the stigma that HIV still has, rather than because the diseases are directly comparable. I read it as scaremongering.
Sort of like how early in the pandemic we as a society made the unfortunate (in my opinion) choice to keep schools closed but open up shopping malls, I really wish that if public health experts determine that interventions like masks are needed, that we would push them in other settings and as much as possible leave kids lives and schooling unaffected. (Yes, I am aware of how unrealistic this feeling is and how thoroughly the ship has sailed.)
posted by Dip Flash at 9:13 AM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
"Frightening,"yes, but in large part because of the stigma that HIV still has, rather than because the diseases are directly comparable. I read it as scaremongering.
Sort of like how early in the pandemic we as a society made the unfortunate (in my opinion) choice to keep schools closed but open up shopping malls, I really wish that if public health experts determine that interventions like masks are needed, that we would push them in other settings and as much as possible leave kids lives and schooling unaffected. (Yes, I am aware of how unrealistic this feeling is and how thoroughly the ship has sailed.)
posted by Dip Flash at 9:13 AM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Comparing HIV and SARS-CoV-2 is comparing two quite highly politicized topics where a large portion of the audience knows little to potentially nothing or having significant misconceptions about the actual biological details on which virologists and immunologists might be basing a comparison, however. It’s reasonable to be very cautious about making such a comparison outside of the very specific fully informed scientific context, or to be cautious about the assumptions being made when one hears such a comparison outside of the very specific scientific context.
One question to ask when such a comparison is made is: why compare with HIV/AIDS and not measles? I don’t know enough about the specific immunological details yet, but recent research shows that measles also causes immune amnesia, which makes (many/some proportion of) people (epidemiological speaking, primarily kids in the case of measles) more susceptible to all sorts of other infections for a period of years after a measles infection. From the bits that I have read, it sounds like the immune effects from COVID-19 might be more comparable to measles, in that they last for a period of time but then our immune systems eventually re-learn and recover their defences- as opposed to HIV which sticks around and just progressively kills more and more of our immune systems forever without recovery (where treatment options can help pause this, but the process would re-start on cessation of treatment). Of course, this effect of measles is not yet nearly as well-known as the effects of HIV on the immune system, so it may simply not be a rhetorically useful comparison. But maybe the talking point should be a little more complex than just “COVID is more like HIV than the flu.”
In the first pandemic summer, a neighbor of mine who splits his time between here and another location had just returned, and he was not very well-informed yet about the post-travel isolation requirements that were in place at the time. In particular, he seemed to not really understand the idea that COVID had an incubation period where one was infectious before (or possible without!) experiencing symptoms. I commented to my partner at the time that I found this surprising given that he was a gay man of a certain age, so would have lived through the AIDS epidemic. But given the different social and political contexts, that’s definitely not a comparison that I ever would have made to him, because while yeah, that one very specific detail was similar (quite different length of incubation period, of course; and very different rates of asymptomatic infection), there was so much else about both the biology and the societal context of the two diseases that differed that I knew would get in the way of the smaller and more specific point that I would have wanted to make. (And lots of other diseases also have an incubation period where people are infectious, as well.)
I do think it’s great that their school brought back masks!
posted by eviemath at 9:14 AM on January 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
One question to ask when such a comparison is made is: why compare with HIV/AIDS and not measles? I don’t know enough about the specific immunological details yet, but recent research shows that measles also causes immune amnesia, which makes (many/some proportion of) people (epidemiological speaking, primarily kids in the case of measles) more susceptible to all sorts of other infections for a period of years after a measles infection. From the bits that I have read, it sounds like the immune effects from COVID-19 might be more comparable to measles, in that they last for a period of time but then our immune systems eventually re-learn and recover their defences- as opposed to HIV which sticks around and just progressively kills more and more of our immune systems forever without recovery (where treatment options can help pause this, but the process would re-start on cessation of treatment). Of course, this effect of measles is not yet nearly as well-known as the effects of HIV on the immune system, so it may simply not be a rhetorically useful comparison. But maybe the talking point should be a little more complex than just “COVID is more like HIV than the flu.”
In the first pandemic summer, a neighbor of mine who splits his time between here and another location had just returned, and he was not very well-informed yet about the post-travel isolation requirements that were in place at the time. In particular, he seemed to not really understand the idea that COVID had an incubation period where one was infectious before (or possible without!) experiencing symptoms. I commented to my partner at the time that I found this surprising given that he was a gay man of a certain age, so would have lived through the AIDS epidemic. But given the different social and political contexts, that’s definitely not a comparison that I ever would have made to him, because while yeah, that one very specific detail was similar (quite different length of incubation period, of course; and very different rates of asymptomatic infection), there was so much else about both the biology and the societal context of the two diseases that differed that I knew would get in the way of the smaller and more specific point that I would have wanted to make. (And lots of other diseases also have an incubation period where people are infectious, as well.)
I do think it’s great that their school brought back masks!
posted by eviemath at 9:14 AM on January 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
The flu season was early, not bad. XBB.1.5 is not causing a hospitalization wave. The rate of children dying of flu is actually below the pre-covid normal.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:15 AM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 9:15 AM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
if kids were all getting measles-like immune amnesia you'd think at the very least it would increase the numbers of children being killed by the flu. But that's not happening. This seems to sharply limit how bad the effect could possibly be.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:16 AM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 9:16 AM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
I would hope that three years into the COVID pandemic we all would understand that there’s a middle ground between nothing to worry about and death, with many degrees of severity in between.
Polio wasn’t considered an extremely serious childhood illness because of its (not too large) death toll, for example.
posted by eviemath at 9:26 AM on January 15, 2023 [33 favorites]
Polio wasn’t considered an extremely serious childhood illness because of its (not too large) death toll, for example.
posted by eviemath at 9:26 AM on January 15, 2023 [33 favorites]
For those of us who have mixed feelings about the FPP link - wanting to celebrate a victory for reasonable pandemic precautions but not comfortable with some of the arguments made by the author - you may be more interested in reading about a recent SPLC victory. From their original description of the case:
After Georgia’s Cobb County School District failed to implement and enforce recommended safety protocols to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in schools, the Southern Poverty Law Center and its allies filed a federal lawsuit describing how the school district’s actions unlawfully deny students with disabilities and medical conditions access to a safe, in-person learning environment.posted by eviemath at 9:32 AM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
The school district blatantly ignored the rights of students with disabilities to safe accommodations under the Americans with Disabilities Act and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act which prohibits government entities from denying people with disabilities equal access to public benefits and services, according to the federal lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, Atlanta Division.
The students and their parents are seeking an emergency order requiring the Cobb County School District to immediately implement Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for COVID-19 prevention in public K-12 schools.
The lawsuit was filed on behalf of four Cobb County students and their parents. The students have medical conditions that make them more susceptible to severe illnesses if they were to contract the coronavirus, including Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, obstructed breathing and severe asthma, and a compromised immune system due to childhood leukemia.
Between March 22 and May 2, 2021, parents were required to sign a form committing their child to either in-person or virtual learning during the 2021-22 school year. In June, as COVID-19 cases surged in Cobb County and surrounding areas, the school board ended mask requirements by a vote along racial and party lines.
The board also relaxed other COVID-19 safety protocols recommended by the CDC for K-12 settings. The situation left many families, including the plaintiffs, forced to choose between their children’s health or their education.
Meanwhile, in Canada, flu is starting to wind down (while the next wave of COVID winds up), but it has so far been an unusually severe season for respiratory infections.
And on RSV:
[From first link] "Certainly, Ontario and Alberta in particular have been hit very hard with an early and really quite explosive influenza season in pediatrics when it comes to more severe disease requiring complex hospitalization. And we're also observing in Montreal as well that our influenza admissions are really starting to pick up," he said.From the second link,
The last week of November saw the highest number of pediatric hospitalizations for a single week in the past decade, said Papenburg, who is also an investigator for IMPACT, a program that monitors hospitalizations for vaccine-preventable diseases at 12 children's hospitals across the country.
Over the course of Canada's flu season, more than 1,500 pediatric influenza-associated hospitalizations have been reported, including 183 children ending up in intensive care.which is higher than the reported average of 1000 pediatric hospitalizations in a usual pre-pandemic flu season.
And on RSV:
”We're still seeing much higher levels of RSV-related admissions than we have before," echoed Dr. Nisha Thampi, medical director of infection prevention and control at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO).posted by eviemath at 9:47 AM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
I'm not sure about the HIV comparison either but I do like the idea of convincing the schools to require masks.
Agreed. I wonder if a better strategy is less to make bold, somewhat misleading, claims about what we know about COVID, and more to point out that there is a lot we still don't know about the disease. A lot of people are turned off by anything that remotely resembles cherry-picking data or putting the worst spin on data. But I think most people can understand/appreciate that if the risks of something are still TBD, it can't hurt to err on the side of caution.
Not because of so-called immunity debt, which epidemiologists say isn't a thing
I'm not an epidemiologist, but the existing scientific research sounds like it's much more complicated than that.
posted by coffeecat at 9:50 AM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Agreed. I wonder if a better strategy is less to make bold, somewhat misleading, claims about what we know about COVID, and more to point out that there is a lot we still don't know about the disease. A lot of people are turned off by anything that remotely resembles cherry-picking data or putting the worst spin on data. But I think most people can understand/appreciate that if the risks of something are still TBD, it can't hurt to err on the side of caution.
Not because of so-called immunity debt, which epidemiologists say isn't a thing
I'm not an epidemiologist, but the existing scientific research sounds like it's much more complicated than that.
posted by coffeecat at 9:50 AM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I would hope that three years into the COVID pandemic we all would understand that there’s a middle ground between nothing to worry about and death, with many degrees of severity in between.
If anything, it's getting worse. I would welcome a return of NYC's public transit mask mandate, as imperfectly enforced as it was. But trying to follow people supporting this position inevitably leads into the "COVID=HIV" brigade and the people talking with way too much relish about "mass disabling events." This article is...a good example of that phenomenon, really.
posted by praemunire at 10:01 AM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
If anything, it's getting worse. I would welcome a return of NYC's public transit mask mandate, as imperfectly enforced as it was. But trying to follow people supporting this position inevitably leads into the "COVID=HIV" brigade and the people talking with way too much relish about "mass disabling events." This article is...a good example of that phenomenon, really.
posted by praemunire at 10:01 AM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
And I don't know if it's resentment of cherrypicking so much as that the claims being put forth simply don't match their own experience. For a lot of people, the COVID cases of friends/family/self have been moderately unpleasant experiences, some lingering annoyingly for several weeks, that eventually ended. When they hear things like "mild cases don't spare you," they think...but that's not what happened with me. It's hard to fight that, especially if you're making broad public-health-style claims.
(Please, please, if you're thinking about indignantly informing me of the worse possibilities, try to consider the possibility that I am aware of them, and the desire to insist on focusing on the worst possible outcomes even when discussing the average experience is part of the problem here.)
posted by praemunire at 10:08 AM on January 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
(Please, please, if you're thinking about indignantly informing me of the worse possibilities, try to consider the possibility that I am aware of them, and the desire to insist on focusing on the worst possible outcomes even when discussing the average experience is part of the problem here.)
posted by praemunire at 10:08 AM on January 15, 2023 [14 favorites]
To praemunire's point, as someone who has been lucky enough to have been basically untouched by any of the health concerns of COVID (vaccinated, boosted, and if I've had it it's been symptomless), other than the anxiety, the desire to insist on focusing on the BEST possible outcomes even when discussing the average experience is ALSO part of the problem here, if by "here" you mean the internet, and the world.
I spent some time accidentally on a part of the internet that seemed like the mirror image of the last COVID Metafilter post and I realized exactly then how scary this all is. Everyone's individual reality, all smooshed together across the windshield, and the imperfect wiper blades of science squishing it all back and forth, back and forth, until we're all dead, 70 years passes, and someone writes a best seller about what REALLY happened.
posted by AbelMelveny at 10:21 AM on January 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
I spent some time accidentally on a part of the internet that seemed like the mirror image of the last COVID Metafilter post and I realized exactly then how scary this all is. Everyone's individual reality, all smooshed together across the windshield, and the imperfect wiper blades of science squishing it all back and forth, back and forth, until we're all dead, 70 years passes, and someone writes a best seller about what REALLY happened.
posted by AbelMelveny at 10:21 AM on January 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
70 years passes, and someone writes a best seller about what REALLY happened.
LOL at historians agreeing on something like this. Remind me, whose fault was World War 1?
posted by Ndwright at 10:24 AM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
LOL at historians agreeing on something like this. Remind me, whose fault was World War 1?
posted by Ndwright at 10:24 AM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
I meant the "REALLY" as sarcasm, of course. But the distance would be nice, if I didn't also clarify we'd all be dead.
posted by AbelMelveny at 10:27 AM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by AbelMelveny at 10:27 AM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
Pardon if I missed it - but does anyone what city or state this school is in?
posted by davidmsc at 10:30 AM on January 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by davidmsc at 10:30 AM on January 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
And I don't know if it's resentment of cherrypicking so much as that the claims being put forth simply don't match their own experience.
Sure, there are plenty of people who are unable to believe in any reality they haven't personally experienced. But there are also a number of people who are capable of that, who are also understandably a bit skeptical of all the click-baity science headlines these days ('Chocolate is poisoning you' 'Any amount of amount of alcohol could kill you') and so, as a general practice, follow the links to the sources and/or see what actual scientists are saying - every time I've done this with sensational headlines/claims around COVID (ie. 'COVID causes brain damage') it turns out to be less clear cut - and like you say, these sorts of narratives make sensical goals - like requiring masking on public transport - harder to achieve.
posted by coffeecat at 10:32 AM on January 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sure, there are plenty of people who are unable to believe in any reality they haven't personally experienced. But there are also a number of people who are capable of that, who are also understandably a bit skeptical of all the click-baity science headlines these days ('Chocolate is poisoning you' 'Any amount of amount of alcohol could kill you') and so, as a general practice, follow the links to the sources and/or see what actual scientists are saying - every time I've done this with sensational headlines/claims around COVID (ie. 'COVID causes brain damage') it turns out to be less clear cut - and like you say, these sorts of narratives make sensical goals - like requiring masking on public transport - harder to achieve.
posted by coffeecat at 10:32 AM on January 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Bummer about the HIV comparison - it's nice to see a simple "How I succeeded at changing institutional policy" essay.
posted by latkes at 10:36 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by latkes at 10:36 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Meanwhile, in Canada,
Speaking of Canada, last years stats have Covid being almost three times as deadly as the flu and pneumonia combined. And then there's the issue of long Covid and all the related unanswered long term issues.
If we're trying to frighten, why can't we go with these verifiable stats that even an arts type like myself can track down in less than three minutes, rather than tie ourselves up in very disputable comparisons that in the end may well make us look alarmist and kind of foolish?
I continue to mask. I have no issue with masks being brought back to schools assuming the medical science supports it.
posted by philip-random at 10:42 AM on January 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
Speaking of Canada, last years stats have Covid being almost three times as deadly as the flu and pneumonia combined. And then there's the issue of long Covid and all the related unanswered long term issues.
If we're trying to frighten, why can't we go with these verifiable stats that even an arts type like myself can track down in less than three minutes, rather than tie ourselves up in very disputable comparisons that in the end may well make us look alarmist and kind of foolish?
I continue to mask. I have no issue with masks being brought back to schools assuming the medical science supports it.
posted by philip-random at 10:42 AM on January 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
My teenage kiddos go to school in San Francisco, and in a predominantly Asian neighborhood. As result: masking in school is still far more common than not, despite no requirements from the school district. Over this past school year it has probably dropped from 90%+ to more like 70% but that is still far more protective than if they were the only ones doing so.
I'm hoping that over time this can become a more seasonal behavior. But for now it's helpful.
posted by feckless at 10:58 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
I'm hoping that over time this can become a more seasonal behavior. But for now it's helpful.
posted by feckless at 10:58 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
If you make an excellent point using an analogy, the arguments against will focus on the analogy. You'd think that after a few decades on the internet, people would know that.
So, besides the analogy, is there anything to argue against here? A bunch of vulnerable people finally had their vulnerability recognized, and swayed a school board to take action that would protect not only them but the entire school population against a pandemic that's killed over six million people already, and left an untold number disabled.
This is a good thing! This is worthy of celebration, and even imitation! Imagine a world where kids can go to school without worrying about bringing something home that'd kill their immunocompromised family member. That'd be great, huh? Well, here's a school district that made it happen, so let's celebrate that, maybe figure out how to scale it up so more people are protected.
Or we could argue some more about a stupid analogy. That seems more productive.
posted by MrVisible at 11:00 AM on January 15, 2023 [28 favorites]
So, besides the analogy, is there anything to argue against here? A bunch of vulnerable people finally had their vulnerability recognized, and swayed a school board to take action that would protect not only them but the entire school population against a pandemic that's killed over six million people already, and left an untold number disabled.
This is a good thing! This is worthy of celebration, and even imitation! Imagine a world where kids can go to school without worrying about bringing something home that'd kill their immunocompromised family member. That'd be great, huh? Well, here's a school district that made it happen, so let's celebrate that, maybe figure out how to scale it up so more people are protected.
Or we could argue some more about a stupid analogy. That seems more productive.
posted by MrVisible at 11:00 AM on January 15, 2023 [28 favorites]
I wonder if a better strategy is less to make bold, somewhat misleading, claims about what we know about COVID, and more to point out that there is a lot we still don't know about the disease.
I seem to remember that they tried this, initially. When vaccines were first discussed the people I followed said "we don't know if it stops infection, the studies only covered death/severity, but you should still get it". People didn't like that answer - scientists are supposed to know everything, all the time. What kind of useless scientists don't have all the answers? Then the anti-vaxxers translated this into "the vaccine does not stop infection, therefore it is useless" which is a simple answer that spreads easily. To most people, confidently stated incorrect opinions win over unconfidently stated fact. The messaging was then changed because government agencies started getting concerned that people won't take the vaccine, but the messaging became a lie.
To this day, there are people who look at N95 respirators, read the fine print that says "this device is not certified to prevent COVID-19 or other infections" and conclude... masks don't do anything, so why bother. People don't like areas of grey, complexity is hard when it's not in your field of study.
posted by meowzilla at 11:15 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
I seem to remember that they tried this, initially. When vaccines were first discussed the people I followed said "we don't know if it stops infection, the studies only covered death/severity, but you should still get it". People didn't like that answer - scientists are supposed to know everything, all the time. What kind of useless scientists don't have all the answers? Then the anti-vaxxers translated this into "the vaccine does not stop infection, therefore it is useless" which is a simple answer that spreads easily. To most people, confidently stated incorrect opinions win over unconfidently stated fact. The messaging was then changed because government agencies started getting concerned that people won't take the vaccine, but the messaging became a lie.
To this day, there are people who look at N95 respirators, read the fine print that says "this device is not certified to prevent COVID-19 or other infections" and conclude... masks don't do anything, so why bother. People don't like areas of grey, complexity is hard when it's not in your field of study.
posted by meowzilla at 11:15 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
> Or we could argue some more about a stupid analogy. That seems more productive.
but it's not just a stupid analogy; as has been discussed, it's an offensive and misguided analogy that reflects a trend of doomsaying that makes it more difficult for the good thing that happened here to continue happening
it is not irrelevant or tangential to the OP
posted by Kybard at 11:23 AM on January 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
but it's not just a stupid analogy; as has been discussed, it's an offensive and misguided analogy that reflects a trend of doomsaying that makes it more difficult for the good thing that happened here to continue happening
it is not irrelevant or tangential to the OP
posted by Kybard at 11:23 AM on January 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
Just because scientists compare whales and dolphins in the same paper doesn't mean it would be fair or accurate to say "whales are like dolphins" in a general context.
But, the HIV hyperbole has a shred of truth, which is that various different scientists speculate or hypothesize that COVID causes long COVID by damaging the T-cell portion of the immune system. Some scientists find it more compelling. As opposed to (or perhaps in addition to, etc.) the earlier hypothesis that long COVID is due to cytokine storms.
But it helps to understand that this kind of science moves really slowly. They actually have to do scientific research to empirically prove that the T-cell dysregulation hypothesis is what actually happens. It usually takes many years to figure this kind of stuff out. So claiming it is true, right now, would be scientifically premature, and we don't want to be anti-science.
posted by polymodus at 11:42 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
But, the HIV hyperbole has a shred of truth, which is that various different scientists speculate or hypothesize that COVID causes long COVID by damaging the T-cell portion of the immune system. Some scientists find it more compelling. As opposed to (or perhaps in addition to, etc.) the earlier hypothesis that long COVID is due to cytokine storms.
But it helps to understand that this kind of science moves really slowly. They actually have to do scientific research to empirically prove that the T-cell dysregulation hypothesis is what actually happens. It usually takes many years to figure this kind of stuff out. So claiming it is true, right now, would be scientifically premature, and we don't want to be anti-science.
posted by polymodus at 11:42 AM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
I said the uncomfortable things, [...] that Covid was never going away
Masks don’t have to be permanent.
This doesn't make sense to me. Could someone clarify how both of these can be simultaneously true?
I'm assuming the author is suggesting some sort of metrics- or rules-based mask requirement, as alluded to by "bringing masks back for a few weeks didn’t mean bringing masks back forever". The author doesn't provide any such rule set. Though, more meaningful to me is... we tried that. "Fifteen days to slow the spread" turned into months to years of masking. We all gave up on that because public health requirements weren't consistently followed, and it turned out that few people will wear masks because they are told to, and few people will stop wearing masks because they are not required to.
Is changing the environment at one single pre-school, where all folks in the pre-school will still be spending the majority of their day in the rest of the unmasked world, all that relevant? It may be "caring" (whatever that means), but I can't extend that to a viable public health care policy.
posted by saeculorum at 12:01 PM on January 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
Masks don’t have to be permanent.
This doesn't make sense to me. Could someone clarify how both of these can be simultaneously true?
I'm assuming the author is suggesting some sort of metrics- or rules-based mask requirement, as alluded to by "bringing masks back for a few weeks didn’t mean bringing masks back forever". The author doesn't provide any such rule set. Though, more meaningful to me is... we tried that. "Fifteen days to slow the spread" turned into months to years of masking. We all gave up on that because public health requirements weren't consistently followed, and it turned out that few people will wear masks because they are told to, and few people will stop wearing masks because they are not required to.
Is changing the environment at one single pre-school, where all folks in the pre-school will still be spending the majority of their day in the rest of the unmasked world, all that relevant? It may be "caring" (whatever that means), but I can't extend that to a viable public health care policy.
posted by saeculorum at 12:01 PM on January 15, 2023 [1 favorite]
if by "here" you mean the internet, and the world.
By "here" I really meant "parts of the public sphere that are trying to advocate in ways both persuasive and well-grounded in public health concerns for substantial investment in improved mitigation measures." I don't want to both-sides it, because I think the minimizer fanatics are worse by far by every possible measure, on top of being deeply factually wrong, but I don't think it's necessarily helps the case that a lot of the improved-mitigation rhetoric, at least in some circles, is driven by...people who for various reasons seem to have tendencies to apocalyptic thinking.
posted by praemunire at 12:03 PM on January 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
By "here" I really meant "parts of the public sphere that are trying to advocate in ways both persuasive and well-grounded in public health concerns for substantial investment in improved mitigation measures." I don't want to both-sides it, because I think the minimizer fanatics are worse by far by every possible measure, on top of being deeply factually wrong, but I don't think it's necessarily helps the case that a lot of the improved-mitigation rhetoric, at least in some circles, is driven by...people who for various reasons seem to have tendencies to apocalyptic thinking.
posted by praemunire at 12:03 PM on January 15, 2023 [7 favorites]
It's just wild to me that these people said, to each other, with a straight face, "What they think about us doesn't matter," when talking about the people who run, staff, and otherwise inhabit their children's school. What they think about you absolutely matters! This isn't the internet where you drop some kind of incendiary reddit comment owning the opposition and move on, safe in your anonymity. Your kids are the ones who take the heat when you piss the wrong people off at their school, and maybe you don't find out how for years, or ever. Or maybe you find out next week in spectacular fashion.
Like, damn. That blew my mind. I'm constantly on eggshells dealing with school officials because I know exactly how badly the people who work at your kids' school can hurt them to get to you. And the last few years have made it abundantly clear that they will, in some numbers, over trivial bullshit.
I really hope this works out for the authors of the article. But a teacher with a grudge has a lot of interesting levers at their disposal to mess with families. Even involved parents do. My kids mask at school but HELL if I'd go to bat to require teachers to do the same.
posted by potrzebie at 12:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Like, damn. That blew my mind. I'm constantly on eggshells dealing with school officials because I know exactly how badly the people who work at your kids' school can hurt them to get to you. And the last few years have made it abundantly clear that they will, in some numbers, over trivial bullshit.
I really hope this works out for the authors of the article. But a teacher with a grudge has a lot of interesting levers at their disposal to mess with families. Even involved parents do. My kids mask at school but HELL if I'd go to bat to require teachers to do the same.
posted by potrzebie at 12:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
This doesn't make sense to me. Could someone clarify how both of these can be simultaneously true?
I would really like us to solve this messaging problem, because I think it is a problem. If your rhetoric seems to carry the implication that we should wear masks forever, which to most people is an unacceptable outcome, then you need to explain clearly why it doesn't. I see a lot of frustration and confusion on this point, and suspicions of arguing in bad faith. I'm not going to pretend I have the answer, because the answer for me, personally--that I'm going to slowly ease off masking based on certain statistics, in the light of individual needs--is hard to translate into a nationwide policy that actually works.
posted by praemunire at 12:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I would really like us to solve this messaging problem, because I think it is a problem. If your rhetoric seems to carry the implication that we should wear masks forever, which to most people is an unacceptable outcome, then you need to explain clearly why it doesn't. I see a lot of frustration and confusion on this point, and suspicions of arguing in bad faith. I'm not going to pretend I have the answer, because the answer for me, personally--that I'm going to slowly ease off masking based on certain statistics, in the light of individual needs--is hard to translate into a nationwide policy that actually works.
posted by praemunire at 12:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'm mainly curious where she sends her kids to school.
Reading that she not only "convinced' the school (board? principal? parent association?) with that highly problematic list, she said that "everyone’s been on board." Parents in my over-educated 75%-Biden-voting town would have run her out of town on rail if she tried this; I can't even imagine how it would go in most other places.
posted by MattD at 12:27 PM on January 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
Reading that she not only "convinced' the school (board? principal? parent association?) with that highly problematic list, she said that "everyone’s been on board." Parents in my over-educated 75%-Biden-voting town would have run her out of town on rail if she tried this; I can't even imagine how it would go in most other places.
posted by MattD at 12:27 PM on January 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
The CDCs "Community Levels" are confusing as fuck and unhelpful for a variety of reasons, but they clearly recommend masking when the "Community Level" is High and that masking can be relaxed when it is lower. It's not that complicated to come up with standards that make sense for when indoor masking should be required and when it can be relaxed. Instead we've just chosen "Fuck it and immunocompromised people should just stay inside their houses at all times".
posted by hydropsyche at 12:29 PM on January 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 12:29 PM on January 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
What they think about you absolutely matters!
I totally agree. People are vindictive against you if they hate you these days. Other people's opinions of you matter a LOT for your own safety. It takes a lot of nerve to keep fighting any kind of battle these days and putting yourself in danger, or your kids in this case.
If your rhetoric seems to carry the implication that we should wear masks forever, which to most people is an unacceptable outcome, then you need to explain clearly why it doesn't.
I truly don't get why people would think we don't have to wear masks forever. This will be around for the rest of human existence. Or even worse will come along, which is pretty likely.
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:30 PM on January 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
I totally agree. People are vindictive against you if they hate you these days. Other people's opinions of you matter a LOT for your own safety. It takes a lot of nerve to keep fighting any kind of battle these days and putting yourself in danger, or your kids in this case.
If your rhetoric seems to carry the implication that we should wear masks forever, which to most people is an unacceptable outcome, then you need to explain clearly why it doesn't.
I truly don't get why people would think we don't have to wear masks forever. This will be around for the rest of human existence. Or even worse will come along, which is pretty likely.
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:30 PM on January 15, 2023 [12 favorites]
Wow, the war on similes is going great. Too bad about the war on deadly infectious disease, though.
Ah, well.
posted by MrVisible at 12:45 PM on January 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
Ah, well.
posted by MrVisible at 12:45 PM on January 15, 2023 [13 favorites]
“Our daughter isn’t going to get Covid again,” I said. “She’s just not.”…but: She is though. That’s infectious disease. And she’s going to be exposed to lots of other life hazards as well, say if she drives a car, works in a workplace, exists. And building up a framework for risk that seems to put moral sanction on people who fall victim (or in the case of this article who don’t do enough or the right things) seems to me unhelpful, at best.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 1:05 PM on January 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
Could someone clarify how both of these can be simultaneously true?
Well, look at flu. Masking for flu hasn't really been much of a thing, mandated masking for flu hasn't been a thing at all. And that's after a worldwide flu pandemic that killed millions. Flu is not going away either but most years we haven't considered it enough of a risk to voluntarily mask, let alone require it.
COVID is a bit worse the flu (and, in any case, is additive on top it it) but it's not that much worse than the flu anymore. Maybe 2 or 3 times more dangerous, which is obviously quite bad but not obviously a step change in human history. If people got yearly COVID shots along with their yearly flu shots it's not clear to me that the danger will be so high, forever, that masking year-round will seem like a good idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:19 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Well, look at flu. Masking for flu hasn't really been much of a thing, mandated masking for flu hasn't been a thing at all. And that's after a worldwide flu pandemic that killed millions. Flu is not going away either but most years we haven't considered it enough of a risk to voluntarily mask, let alone require it.
COVID is a bit worse the flu (and, in any case, is additive on top it it) but it's not that much worse than the flu anymore. Maybe 2 or 3 times more dangerous, which is obviously quite bad but not obviously a step change in human history. If people got yearly COVID shots along with their yearly flu shots it's not clear to me that the danger will be so high, forever, that masking year-round will seem like a good idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:19 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's not that complicated to come up with standards that make sense for when indoor masking should be required and when it can be relaxed. Instead we've just chosen "Fuck it and immunocompromised people should just stay inside their houses at all times".
I think that the idea that asking people to shift back and forth reliably between different mitigation statuses repeatedly over a relative short period in time and varying by location is a no-brainer reflects a very, very limited understanding of human nature and/or the history of public health. The "oh, this is an easy problem to solve, we just hate disabled people" approach is just not helpful, even though ableism is real. These are challenging problems that historically we have not solved cleanly!
Especially in light of the fact that immunocompromised people have often had to isolate, well before COVID came on the scene. (It's been 100% routine for people recovering from stem cell transplants, for example.) If you were okay with that before, but now that it might affect your risk calculus, you're suddenly up in arms and unable to understand how those bad people just don't do the simple obvious right things...it leaves a bad taste.
posted by praemunire at 1:21 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
I think that the idea that asking people to shift back and forth reliably between different mitigation statuses repeatedly over a relative short period in time and varying by location is a no-brainer reflects a very, very limited understanding of human nature and/or the history of public health. The "oh, this is an easy problem to solve, we just hate disabled people" approach is just not helpful, even though ableism is real. These are challenging problems that historically we have not solved cleanly!
Especially in light of the fact that immunocompromised people have often had to isolate, well before COVID came on the scene. (It's been 100% routine for people recovering from stem cell transplants, for example.) If you were okay with that before, but now that it might affect your risk calculus, you're suddenly up in arms and unable to understand how those bad people just don't do the simple obvious right things...it leaves a bad taste.
posted by praemunire at 1:21 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Yeah, but long covid may handicap you for life. That's worse than flu. That, to me, is enough reason to mask for life because you may or may not be able to recover from covid.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:25 PM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:25 PM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
On top of all the people with primary and secondary immune dysfunctions, people with HIV, and people who are temporarily or permanently medically immunosuppressed due to autoimmune disease, cancer, or organ transplants, the CDC still considers everyone over 70 at uniquely high risk from COVID, and if you look at the current hospitalization data, that risk is clearly still there. That is a lot more people who are permanently at risk than in the past. Yes, society might have to work differently now. Sometimes the status quo changes.
posted by hydropsyche at 1:30 PM on January 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 1:30 PM on January 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
There is a fundamental difference between Covid and HIV, no matter their underlying biological mechanisms: they transmit in completely different ways, which is a vital difference when discussing public health policy.
posted by twsf at 1:36 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by twsf at 1:36 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Looking over these past years and my kids development, I recognize both that Covid was harmful and quarantine/facemasking was harmful. Both can be true.
posted by iamck at 1:39 PM on January 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by iamck at 1:39 PM on January 15, 2023 [10 favorites]
I’m pretty sure the “school” is a preschool/daycare which probably has a lot more latitude about the rules. Mum is in for a shock when she has to deal with a school board, union, etc.
I sympathize because I have a position of influence to advocate for masks, but the thing about lobbing an analogy-bomb is that it only works until it’s challenged. A more effective strategy for me in the past (masks are recommended but not required in my tiny corner) was to appeal to values.
posted by warriorqueen at 1:40 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
I sympathize because I have a position of influence to advocate for masks, but the thing about lobbing an analogy-bomb is that it only works until it’s challenged. A more effective strategy for me in the past (masks are recommended but not required in my tiny corner) was to appeal to values.
posted by warriorqueen at 1:40 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
Hey, you know what'd be more helpful than yet another argument about the semantics surrounding Covid? A discussion about what could be done to support the millions of immunocompromised and vulnerable people that still have to navigate society despite it having become a minefield for them in the past few years. Since that number is only going to increase, given that Covid affects your immune system, we have the choice of either helping them out or letting them die. Let's help them out, because we're not monsters, right?
So, what could we be doing?
No?
Carry on, then.
posted by MrVisible at 2:06 PM on January 15, 2023 [46 favorites]
So, what could we be doing?
- Make it easier for immunocompromised people to get remote jobs
- Make it easier for immunocompromised people to get on disability
- Make masks mandatory in medical facilities
- Encourage businesses to set aside an hour a week where masks are mandatory
- Make food and meal deliveries more economical for immunocompromised people
- Give immunocompromised or vulnerable students the opportunity to learn online
- Make accommodations for immunocompromised or vulnerable teachers
- Start acknowledging the fact that Covid has made the world incredibly hard for millions of people and their loved ones
- Stop being jackasses and mask up when you're in public, for Pete's sake what's wrong with you
No?
Carry on, then.
posted by MrVisible at 2:06 PM on January 15, 2023 [46 favorites]
Please go ahead and post that article, MrVisible. That wasn’t this one though!
posted by warriorqueen at 2:08 PM on January 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by warriorqueen at 2:08 PM on January 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
That article doesn't exist, warriorqueen. That's kind of my point.
posted by MrVisible at 2:25 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by MrVisible at 2:25 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
When I got my most recent COVID booster, I was talking with the pharmacist who administered it, who was predicting that COVID boosters would become a bi-annual (though hopefully eventually annual) thing, like flu boosters. I can see masking indoors being similarly a new seasonal norm, for the times of the year when we can’t open windows and get better ventilation or when we’re otherwise at the height of respiratory illness season.
Not where I was expecting we’d end up back at the start of the pandemic, and definitely disappointing for me as someone who favoured the COVID-zero approach. But probably also better than the alternative.
posted by eviemath at 2:27 PM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
Not where I was expecting we’d end up back at the start of the pandemic, and definitely disappointing for me as someone who favoured the COVID-zero approach. But probably also better than the alternative.
posted by eviemath at 2:27 PM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
Well, further to the topic of this one, I field 1-2 parent calls/questions a month about masks. These range from “some people in your facilities including staff are still wearing horrible masks so I am canceling my membership” through “when will you make masks mandatory again?” Most are in between like “my child forgot his mask at school and you didn’t go get one,” or “do you still have free masks because I want to go to the liquor store next door” or “my child is sick and we don’t want to test them so here’s a 1-ply fabric mask” or “no, I’m not coming to get my coughing feverish kid and by the way if you put a mask on them I’ll sue you.” (The “fevers mean you go home” was a pre-Covid policy, but is now politicized.)
My guess is, this preschool is small and the principal/owner hasn’t gotten as much feedback. I think it’s really great that they were able to do it. I suspect there may be a backlash if anyone gets upset about it and the HIV analogy comes out. But I’m also guessing it’s a self-selected group of reasonable parents.
I have a heart problem that developed right after Covid. I wear my n95 relatively religiously and deal with upset about it from time to time, in case my personal position is relevant. But as a business, once regulations vanished things got harder.
On a positive note, despite the situations above, in general people are overall aware of their health and I would say a good healthy number mask up when they have sniffles or have been exposed to someone with Covid. (Public health rules in my area explicitly allow people who even live with people who have Covid actively to go about their business.)
posted by warriorqueen at 2:30 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
My guess is, this preschool is small and the principal/owner hasn’t gotten as much feedback. I think it’s really great that they were able to do it. I suspect there may be a backlash if anyone gets upset about it and the HIV analogy comes out. But I’m also guessing it’s a self-selected group of reasonable parents.
I have a heart problem that developed right after Covid. I wear my n95 relatively religiously and deal with upset about it from time to time, in case my personal position is relevant. But as a business, once regulations vanished things got harder.
On a positive note, despite the situations above, in general people are overall aware of their health and I would say a good healthy number mask up when they have sniffles or have been exposed to someone with Covid. (Public health rules in my area explicitly allow people who even live with people who have Covid actively to go about their business.)
posted by warriorqueen at 2:30 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
‘People aren’t taking this seriously’: experts say US Covid surge is big risk: Fewer precautions, recent holidays and subvariants have driven rise but boosters, masks and other precautions are still effective
Yet booster uptake has been “pitiful”, said Neil Sehgal, an assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of Maryland School of Public Health. Antiviral uptake has been low, and few mandates on masking, vaccination and testing have resumed in the face of the winter surge, which is once again putting pressure on health systems.posted by MrVisible at 2:31 PM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
New Covid hospital admissions are now at the fourth-highest rate of the pandemic, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Covid hospitalizations declined somewhat after the summer wave, but never dropped to the low levels seen after previous spikes, persisting through the fall and rising again with the winter holidays.
“Hospitals are at maximum capacity,” said Brendan Williams, president and CEO of the New Hampshire Health Care Association, of his region’s current rates. “I’m not sure what the trajectory of this thing’s going to be, but I am worried.”
I'd add here that the odd paradoxes of public health are at work here. Individually-simple things like 'wearing a mask' can be very difficult to enforce at scale, while at the same time their effectiveness is precisely at scale, rather than individual protection. The paradox is here as well in persuasion measures. An activity like the author is describing, starting with assembling information and presenting these lists of facts, accompanied by a stark take-it-or-leave-it proposal, can be very effective at the small scale (in a marriage, in a clinical relationship, in a school), but anyone who's paid attention to politics for the last decade will know that that means of persuasion doesn't work for populations...
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 2:33 PM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 2:33 PM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
The CDCs "Community Levels" are confusing as fuck and unhelpful for a variety of reasons, but they clearly recommend masking when the "Community Level" is High and that masking can be relaxed when it is lower. It's not that complicated to come up with standards that make sense for when indoor masking should be required and when it can be relaxed. Instead we've just chosen "Fuck it and immunocompromised people should just stay inside their houses at all times".
People manage if-then risk-based decisions all the time; and if they were given reasonable and helpful indicators about current covid risk in a given community, people could then adjust their precautions based on their risk tolerance. Unfortunately the current CDC risk levels aren't giving that, and you can tell because people are universally ignoring them.
I distinctly remember, say, going to the movies on a crowded night and there being a cough going through the crowd, and pretty much knowing I'd have a cold within a day or two. And just shrugging because that's a thing you get, and oh well.
I was recently on a video conference call where a group of people called in from a conference room in their office. One of them was visibly ill and started off the call by apologizing for his sniffling, hoarseness, and coughing. Three or four years ago that would have been completely unremarkable, but I was really surprised that at this point in time people are still doing that, rather than staying home, taking the call from another room, or at an absolute minimum, wearing a mask. His coworkers seemed completely unperturbed, though.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
People manage if-then risk-based decisions all the time; and if they were given reasonable and helpful indicators about current covid risk in a given community, people could then adjust their precautions based on their risk tolerance. Unfortunately the current CDC risk levels aren't giving that, and you can tell because people are universally ignoring them.
I distinctly remember, say, going to the movies on a crowded night and there being a cough going through the crowd, and pretty much knowing I'd have a cold within a day or two. And just shrugging because that's a thing you get, and oh well.
I was recently on a video conference call where a group of people called in from a conference room in their office. One of them was visibly ill and started off the call by apologizing for his sniffling, hoarseness, and coughing. Three or four years ago that would have been completely unremarkable, but I was really surprised that at this point in time people are still doing that, rather than staying home, taking the call from another room, or at an absolute minimum, wearing a mask. His coworkers seemed completely unperturbed, though.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
Mr. Visible, this article in Nature may be what you are looking for?
The Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety also has some materials on “assessing risks and adjusting controls” in the workplace, which may be helpful.
posted by eviemath at 3:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety also has some materials on “assessing risks and adjusting controls” in the workplace, which may be helpful.
posted by eviemath at 3:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
But, the HIV hyperbole has a shred of truth, which is that various different scientists speculate or hypothesize that COVID causes long COVID by damaging the T-cell portion of the immune system [...] claiming it is true, right now, would be scientifically premature, and we don't want to be anti-science.
Even if it is true. Anthony "T-Cell exhaustion" Leonardi says to back away from the HIV comparisons. "When you use so much hyperbole, you actually do a disservice to true and real statements [...]". That's from the Salon article in the last thread. I did a quick search of his twitter at the time, and it seemed reasonably sincere. (Same with the quote from Dr Gregory).
The hype network did not cover itself in glory and respect when it came to Monkeypox. Some people wanted a scare. And they didn't want vaccines and guidance to be prioritized for the real risk groups. For the sake of the next disease outbreak, I hope people learn better information hygiene.
It feels problematic to use HIV/AIDS as a scare word, but I'm more curious where it comes from. I see the pre-school blogger does have a post with indirect citations, but they read very similar to the confusion in that last thread.
Lymphocytopenia is easy to measure. Persistent lymphocytopenia would have been easy to look for, and it would stand out. It is not Leonardi's theory. Someone somewhere made 2+2=5, and people have been copying it without engaging any relevant specialist.
There is one news article they could have cited now. It's from the Waterloo Record's general assignment reporter and one scientist who works on amphibians. But it's not causing me to doubt e.g. a pro-mitigation scientist who looked at the question in humans. "The T-Cells are there" is a long way from, I quote, "COVID is worse than HIV regarding the depletion of immune cells".
posted by sourcejedi at 3:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
Even if it is true. Anthony "T-Cell exhaustion" Leonardi says to back away from the HIV comparisons. "When you use so much hyperbole, you actually do a disservice to true and real statements [...]". That's from the Salon article in the last thread. I did a quick search of his twitter at the time, and it seemed reasonably sincere. (Same with the quote from Dr Gregory).
The hype network did not cover itself in glory and respect when it came to Monkeypox. Some people wanted a scare. And they didn't want vaccines and guidance to be prioritized for the real risk groups. For the sake of the next disease outbreak, I hope people learn better information hygiene.
It feels problematic to use HIV/AIDS as a scare word, but I'm more curious where it comes from. I see the pre-school blogger does have a post with indirect citations, but they read very similar to the confusion in that last thread.
Lymphocytopenia is easy to measure. Persistent lymphocytopenia would have been easy to look for, and it would stand out. It is not Leonardi's theory. Someone somewhere made 2+2=5, and people have been copying it without engaging any relevant specialist.
There is one news article they could have cited now. It's from the Waterloo Record's general assignment reporter and one scientist who works on amphibians. But it's not causing me to doubt e.g. a pro-mitigation scientist who looked at the question in humans. "The T-Cells are there" is a long way from, I quote, "COVID is worse than HIV regarding the depletion of immune cells".
posted by sourcejedi at 3:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
I can see masking indoors being similarly a new seasonal norm, for the times of the year when we can’t open windows and get better ventilation or when we’re otherwise at the height of respiratory illness season.
I can't see it because it's not happening right now, when we are still in a global pandemic (at least the United States, anyway). People are coming into work with the sniffles, not masked. People are coughing in the grocery store, not masked. If a global fucking pandemic didn't turn us* into a culture that valued not literally putting someone else's health at risk, why would anything change now?
*by "us" I mean the United States because that's the only place I have intimate knowledge of.
posted by cooker girl at 3:28 PM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
I can't see it because it's not happening right now, when we are still in a global pandemic (at least the United States, anyway). People are coming into work with the sniffles, not masked. People are coughing in the grocery store, not masked. If a global fucking pandemic didn't turn us* into a culture that valued not literally putting someone else's health at risk, why would anything change now?
*by "us" I mean the United States because that's the only place I have intimate knowledge of.
posted by cooker girl at 3:28 PM on January 15, 2023 [8 favorites]
Looking over these past years and my kids development, I recognize both that Covid was harmful and quarantine/facemasking was harmful.
I’m not convinced the latter is true.
posted by kat518 at 3:28 PM on January 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
I’m not convinced the latter is true.
posted by kat518 at 3:28 PM on January 15, 2023 [17 favorites]
Did anyone else read this and get the strong impression that the spouse was never in fact really on board?
posted by staggernation at 3:35 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by staggernation at 3:35 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Amazing that there are still people saying that isolation/masking/quarantine absolutely, incontrovertibly, undeniably had no impact on any children. Like, it impacted me, why would I assume to know better than a parent how it affected their kid?
If you say masking can't have had a negative impact, I think it's on you to prove that.
posted by sagc at 3:44 PM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
If you say masking can't have had a negative impact, I think it's on you to prove that.
posted by sagc at 3:44 PM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
(especially when it's in the context of saying "I think you're lying about it harming your kid")
posted by sagc at 3:46 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by sagc at 3:46 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you say masking can't have had a negative impact, I think it's on you to prove that.
Did someone say that? I didn’t. I’m sorry if it had a negative impact on you and/or yours.
posted by kat518 at 4:10 PM on January 15, 2023
Did someone say that? I didn’t. I’m sorry if it had a negative impact on you and/or yours.
posted by kat518 at 4:10 PM on January 15, 2023
You... Said you think it's untrue that masking/quarantine are harmful? Is that a misinterpretation of this comment?
posted by sagc at 4:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by sagc at 4:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
I mean, yes, remote learning and social isolation affected my kids in multiple ways. They bounced back mostly, but it was tough. I’m very Covid-averse - still working from home and basically don’t do any events with crowds - and have not gotten it, and I have a mask in the car and make judgement calls depending on where I’m going. But not seeing peoples’ faces during Covid sucked, and I don’t buy the whole “well the eyes communicate most emotion so it’s fine” argument. It was doable for a couple of years, but a society where everyone just wears masks indefinitely isn’t going to happen I don’t think, rightly or wrongly .
posted by caviar2d2 at 4:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 4:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
I think conflating masking (not harmful, utterly routine in much of the world for a long time now) and quarantine (meaningful mental health effects for many people) isn't helping here.
(Parenthetical statements are my opinion.)
posted by Dysk at 4:38 PM on January 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
(Parenthetical statements are my opinion.)
posted by Dysk at 4:38 PM on January 15, 2023 [18 favorites]
I said that I’m not convinced “Looking over these past years and my kids development, I recognize both that Covid was harmful and quarantine/facemasking was harmful.” To be clear, I am not convinced that quarantine/facemasking have been harmful re: my kids’ development.
I did not say “masking can’t have had a negative impact.” I definitely did not intentionally imply that anyone was lying about how masking affected their kid. Respectfully I think that’s not a fair way to interpret what I said.
posted by kat518 at 4:39 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
I did not say “masking can’t have had a negative impact.” I definitely did not intentionally imply that anyone was lying about how masking affected their kid. Respectfully I think that’s not a fair way to interpret what I said.
posted by kat518 at 4:39 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
Perhaps I’m being too literal but “remote learning and social isolation” are not the same as “quarantine/facemasking.”
posted by kat518 at 4:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by kat518 at 4:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
I really wish covid was more like HIV because then we could have PREP which is 99 percent effective when taken as persribed (a once a day pill!) Even when engaging in high risk activities like sharing needles. Thats awesome. Also, when treated, we can make people with HIV non infectious and in In 2020, there were 18,489 deaths among adults and adolescents with diagnosed HIV in the United States and 6 dependent areas. These deaths may be due to any cause, including COVID-19. (I copied and pasted that verbatim).
In fact HIV is really really treatable, we know how to make people who have HIV non infectious (even if they will continue to need to take medication), the death rate is very low especially when compared to COVID. So yes, excuse us advocates who have been battling stigma for years over a disease that is now less difficult to manage than diabetes, being compared to a very contagious respiratory disease that might have some immune effects that aren't at all the same. And if they were we could do some amazing things with the science we already have!
Meanwhile, lets not stigmatize a group of people who are just trying to live their best lives with a disease everyone thinks is awful but actually people with HIV now have the same life expectancy as someone without the disease.
So moving on, masking for health reasons (turns out making is good for stopping respiratory stuff) is great argument to have. When people aren't sick they are participating in stuff like school, and work which is an all around good. That's a great point. But the rest of her argument is mostly fearmongering and bullshit and no better than what antimaskers are saying . It is not written in a way that I find engaging or helpful. Covid is scary enough without adding shit to it.
posted by AlexiaSky at 7:09 PM on January 15, 2023 [20 favorites]
In fact HIV is really really treatable, we know how to make people who have HIV non infectious (even if they will continue to need to take medication), the death rate is very low especially when compared to COVID. So yes, excuse us advocates who have been battling stigma for years over a disease that is now less difficult to manage than diabetes, being compared to a very contagious respiratory disease that might have some immune effects that aren't at all the same. And if they were we could do some amazing things with the science we already have!
Meanwhile, lets not stigmatize a group of people who are just trying to live their best lives with a disease everyone thinks is awful but actually people with HIV now have the same life expectancy as someone without the disease.
So moving on, masking for health reasons (turns out making is good for stopping respiratory stuff) is great argument to have. When people aren't sick they are participating in stuff like school, and work which is an all around good. That's a great point. But the rest of her argument is mostly fearmongering and bullshit and no better than what antimaskers are saying . It is not written in a way that I find engaging or helpful. Covid is scary enough without adding shit to it.
posted by AlexiaSky at 7:09 PM on January 15, 2023 [20 favorites]
COVID is a bit worse the flu (and, in any case, is additive on top it it) but it's not that much worse than the flu anymore. Maybe 2 or 3 times more dangerous, which is obviously quite bad but not obviously a step change in human history. If people got yearly COVID shots along with their yearly flu shots it's not clear to me that the danger will be so high, forever, that masking year-round will seem like a good idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:19 PM on January 15 [5 favorites +] [!]
I tell my patients who compare covid to the flu to try to understand that influenza is a respiratory virus and covid attacks the vascular system. They are totally different things, and frankly no matter what we tell people it is not working. A lot of people are simply going to die from a preventable virus.
posted by docpops at 7:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [28 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 1:19 PM on January 15 [5 favorites +] [!]
I tell my patients who compare covid to the flu to try to understand that influenza is a respiratory virus and covid attacks the vascular system. They are totally different things, and frankly no matter what we tell people it is not working. A lot of people are simply going to die from a preventable virus.
posted by docpops at 7:15 PM on January 15, 2023 [28 favorites]
*by "us" I mean the United States because that's the only place I have intimate knowledge of.
Australian here, with connections to Europe.
In a way, if you are American and care about masks as a public health measure, you should actually feel a bit of pride for efforts in your country, as I can assure you that in Australia and Europe masking has been completely abandoned.
In Australia, the ending of restrictive public health measures was dangled as a carrot to encourage vaccination uptake. It was promised that if a certain percentage of the country was vaccinated with 2 shots (80% depending on how you measure it) masks would no longer be required. That was met, and the pandemic was effectively declared over.
Additionally, the common belief here, even among left leaning people and healthcare workers, is that "cloth masks and surgical masks don't work well against Delta and Omicron so it's not worth bothering if you're triple vaxxed".
posted by other barry at 7:40 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
Australian here, with connections to Europe.
In a way, if you are American and care about masks as a public health measure, you should actually feel a bit of pride for efforts in your country, as I can assure you that in Australia and Europe masking has been completely abandoned.
In Australia, the ending of restrictive public health measures was dangled as a carrot to encourage vaccination uptake. It was promised that if a certain percentage of the country was vaccinated with 2 shots (80% depending on how you measure it) masks would no longer be required. That was met, and the pandemic was effectively declared over.
Additionally, the common belief here, even among left leaning people and healthcare workers, is that "cloth masks and surgical masks don't work well against Delta and Omicron so it's not worth bothering if you're triple vaxxed".
posted by other barry at 7:40 PM on January 15, 2023 [4 favorites]
I was using the phrase “I can see…” in the sense of ”this seems reasonable to me”, not in the sense of reporting an immediate observation. (Though much of the US seems to compare unfavourably with much of the rest of the world, including where I live, on mask-wearing rates, from what I read.) The point I was trying to make is that the options are not just indefinite masking in the sense of always-masking, versus never-masking. Seasonal mask use is also an option.
posted by eviemath at 7:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 7:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
COVID is a bit worse the flu (and, in any case, is additive on top it it) but it's not that much worse than the flu anymore.
I think this is highly misleading. Where I live, we have pretty good data, and in 2021-2022 we had over 200x as many COVID deaths as influenza. So far in 2023, it’s only 10x as many…. so far.
In what world is 10x to 200x as many deaths “a bit worse” ?! !
posted by soylent00FF00 at 7:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
I think this is highly misleading. Where I live, we have pretty good data, and in 2021-2022 we had over 200x as many COVID deaths as influenza. So far in 2023, it’s only 10x as many…. so far.
In what world is 10x to 200x as many deaths “a bit worse” ?! !
posted by soylent00FF00 at 7:59 PM on January 15, 2023 [19 favorites]
People can't parse continuous risk, it becomes normalized, and we're still on track for 19th century sanitariums, woo.
But seriously, a child in school today - given waning immunity - is up for around 40 COVID infections by adulthood. That's about a month a year sick with that, and well, I'm not compounding the percent risk of long-covid on top.
My kids will keep wearing masks until we come up with something better, if only because killing their mother with a plague is a deal breaker for me.
posted by pan at 9:00 PM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
But seriously, a child in school today - given waning immunity - is up for around 40 COVID infections by adulthood. That's about a month a year sick with that, and well, I'm not compounding the percent risk of long-covid on top.
My kids will keep wearing masks until we come up with something better, if only because killing their mother with a plague is a deal breaker for me.
posted by pan at 9:00 PM on January 15, 2023 [16 favorites]
The concept that there has been any real meaningful lockdowns on a societal level in the US is a bit farcical. Truthfully, at best, we had a cheesecloth if China/Taiwan/Singapore are actual lockdowns. People kept going into work. People kept going to recreational places, just less of them.
It’s also important to not use quarantine or isolation in this context, as these are both terms consistently used for how you respond if exposed or infected.
posted by BlackQueerIroh at 9:55 PM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
It’s also important to not use quarantine or isolation in this context, as these are both terms consistently used for how you respond if exposed or infected.
posted by BlackQueerIroh at 9:55 PM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
But seriously, a child in school today - given waning immunity - is up for around 40 COVID infections by adulthood.
And reading this just made me want to scream and hide under the bed for the rest of my life.
Again, if wearing a mask makes that not be my future, I am all for it.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:56 PM on January 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
And reading this just made me want to scream and hide under the bed for the rest of my life.
Again, if wearing a mask makes that not be my future, I am all for it.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:56 PM on January 15, 2023 [15 favorites]
Could we please stop the PanicFilter based on made up numbers?
posted by twsf at 10:18 PM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
posted by twsf at 10:18 PM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
As someone who spends a lot of time in special needs spaces, I can testify that quarantine had a deleterious effect on many kids’ therapies. And when in-person therapy resumed, masking was and is a challenge specifically for students receiving speech therapy and social skills therapies, in the first case because they want the child to SEE the therapists mouth make speech sounds, in order to imitate them, and in the second case because such students may be receiving, literally, lessons in how to interpret people’s expressions.
Take from this information what you will.
posted by bq at 10:29 PM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Take from this information what you will.
posted by bq at 10:29 PM on January 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Although very different diseases, comparing HIV to Covid is I feel a valid talking point that illustrates the future in terms of public health.
In the early days of the Covid pandemic, in South Africa some people around here questioned what all the fuss was about, saying typically: 'why are we worrying about this when so many people die of HIV and TB every year?'. Which I found puzzling.
Other pandemics somehow negate a new one? We're willing to risk ignoring Covid in the same manner as we ignored HIV until it was so bad that we needed to act?
Here in South Africa, if you go to a public hospital (free for low income earners), you will most likely see a separate TB unit, and an HIV unit. As established diseases they require a special focus, with seperate funding and education programs.
I expect that in the future you will might see a Covid unit also.
Although you might not, because our government might not be willing to fund special resources for something that is seen as the 'flu'.
Currently it's not easy to get a vaccine, booster or test in South Africa. A test requires a visit to your doctor for a referral and then a visit to a testing centre. Both are not free of you don't have medical aid.
Unless you visit a public hospital.
In terms of public resources it's a worthwhile comparing the differences and similarities between management of 'established' and 'to be established' diseases. And the impact on resources on the long term.
posted by BrStekker at 10:44 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
In the early days of the Covid pandemic, in South Africa some people around here questioned what all the fuss was about, saying typically: 'why are we worrying about this when so many people die of HIV and TB every year?'. Which I found puzzling.
Other pandemics somehow negate a new one? We're willing to risk ignoring Covid in the same manner as we ignored HIV until it was so bad that we needed to act?
Here in South Africa, if you go to a public hospital (free for low income earners), you will most likely see a separate TB unit, and an HIV unit. As established diseases they require a special focus, with seperate funding and education programs.
I expect that in the future you will might see a Covid unit also.
Although you might not, because our government might not be willing to fund special resources for something that is seen as the 'flu'.
Currently it's not easy to get a vaccine, booster or test in South Africa. A test requires a visit to your doctor for a referral and then a visit to a testing centre. Both are not free of you don't have medical aid.
Unless you visit a public hospital.
In terms of public resources it's a worthwhile comparing the differences and similarities between management of 'established' and 'to be established' diseases. And the impact on resources on the long term.
posted by BrStekker at 10:44 PM on January 15, 2023 [6 favorites]
On the topic of COVID, I'm already seeing pushback from talking heads on "so who was right on COVID 3 years later?" and tried to justify the early lift of lockdowns by cherrypicking evidence (and claim DeSantis was a GENIUS and Media was wrong in slamming him and praising Cuomo, even though New York had the same death rate as Florida and did not lift lockdown until much later)
Most of the "Normalcy cult" were just cherrypicking evidence anyway, along with some completely mis-read evidence about effects of lockdown on children or how effective masks are in schools.
In San Francisco Chinatown, half or more of people I've seen are masked.
posted by kschang at 11:02 PM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
Most of the "Normalcy cult" were just cherrypicking evidence anyway, along with some completely mis-read evidence about effects of lockdown on children or how effective masks are in schools.
In San Francisco Chinatown, half or more of people I've seen are masked.
posted by kschang at 11:02 PM on January 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
The reason it’s dangerous to compare COVID with HIV is that, before treatments existed and before knowledge of its mechanism, it was a disease with extraordinarily high mortality and even more extraordinarily cruel stigma. That stigma genuinely still attaches to it, as though carriers are to blame in some way to their carrying a virus, for their behaviour or their sexuality or their relationships or their addictions. Stigma has been the pretext for incredibly illiberal laws around the world, to widespread cruelty, and at worst, for acts of violence. The direct physical effects of a disease aren’t always the only effects, nor are people with the disease the only ones to suffer.
If there are societies, like mine, where people look around them, realise that they and everyone they know have probably had COVID (despite vaccination, and boosting, and masking etc.), and don’t then reach for blaming or ‘allowing’ a spread, well, there are worse ways to approach sickness.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 11:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
If there are societies, like mine, where people look around them, realise that they and everyone they know have probably had COVID (despite vaccination, and boosting, and masking etc.), and don’t then reach for blaming or ‘allowing’ a spread, well, there are worse ways to approach sickness.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 11:10 PM on January 15, 2023 [5 favorites]
It is valid and important to compare HIV with the coronavirus, if only because the sitting Presidents of the United States during both respective epidemics deliberately, purposefully allowed the virus to spread and kill millions of people, so that they could accumulate more political influence with their cult followers. People who disagree are wrong and can answer to the victims and their families and loved ones.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:48 PM on January 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:48 PM on January 15, 2023 [11 favorites]
hello from Japan, where basically the only thing the leadership ever really got right with the pandemic was "most people wear masks most of the time when they are out of the house," and the numbers generally only really look bad in comparison to other Asian countries
I have never once heard a person here express the idea that people wearing masks as a public safety measure might somehow be traumatic because of not seeing people's faces, possibly because the idea of preventative measures to avoid respiratory spread of contagious diseases were already the norm here, rather than just a resigned shrug that you're just going to catch What's Going Around sooner or later
posted by DoctorFedora at 11:53 PM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
I have never once heard a person here express the idea that people wearing masks as a public safety measure might somehow be traumatic because of not seeing people's faces, possibly because the idea of preventative measures to avoid respiratory spread of contagious diseases were already the norm here, rather than just a resigned shrug that you're just going to catch What's Going Around sooner or later
posted by DoctorFedora at 11:53 PM on January 15, 2023 [21 favorites]
As someone who spends a lot of time in special needs spaces, I can testify that quarantine had a deleterious effect on many kids’ therapies. And when in-person therapy resumed, masking was and is a challenge specifically for students receiving speech therapy and social skills therapies, in the first case because they want the child to SEE the therapists mouth make speech sounds, in order to imitate them, and in the second case because such students may be receiving, literally, lessons in how to interpret people’s expressions.
There are various brands of transparent masks, such as these.
posted by fairmettle at 12:37 AM on January 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
There are various brands of transparent masks, such as these.
posted by fairmettle at 12:37 AM on January 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
I tell my patients who compare covid to the flu to try to understand that influenza is a respiratory virus and covid attacks the vascular system.
How sure are you about that? That influenza doesn’t attack the vascular system, I mean:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC387426/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12048584/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8874985/
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2518762
Don’t get me wrong, “new endemic virus” is a staggeringly bad thing, precisely because it can be expected to take both an obvious acute toll on human life and a subtler toll, one we currently scarcely understand, continuously with no foreseeable end. But I’ve become increasingly convinced that the “more like HIV than the flu” thing represents a counterproductive “flu is normal” bias, when, if there’s anything we should be getting out of this disaster, it’s a deeper understanding of the complex impact viruses have on human health.
posted by atoxyl at 2:20 AM on January 16, 2023 [5 favorites]
How sure are you about that? That influenza doesn’t attack the vascular system, I mean:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC387426/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12048584/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8874985/
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2518762
Don’t get me wrong, “new endemic virus” is a staggeringly bad thing, precisely because it can be expected to take both an obvious acute toll on human life and a subtler toll, one we currently scarcely understand, continuously with no foreseeable end. But I’ve become increasingly convinced that the “more like HIV than the flu” thing represents a counterproductive “flu is normal” bias, when, if there’s anything we should be getting out of this disaster, it’s a deeper understanding of the complex impact viruses have on human health.
posted by atoxyl at 2:20 AM on January 16, 2023 [5 favorites]
Fairmettle we did a lot of experiments with masks like those, and they're pretty much useless as they fog up.
posted by Zumbador at 2:59 AM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Zumbador at 2:59 AM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
(It's perhaps worth noting that routine masking is not the same as enforced masking in every situation ever, no exceptions.)
posted by Dysk at 3:26 AM on January 16, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 3:26 AM on January 16, 2023 [14 favorites]
Using science to figure out whats going on is important but complicated and messy. Particularly in human/biology areas - The pandemic has been a huge global lesson in that - the challenge for government and people being "try to make big decisons based on imperfect ever changing information in an increasingly hostile information landscape where there's always someone confidently proclaiming the complete opposite of whatever you just think you learnt"
Abelmeveny: Everyone's individual reality, all smooshed together across the windshield, and the imperfect wiper blades of science squishing it all back and forth, back and forth - yes that
Over here in the UK, my personal experience is that things are mostly back to normal now. Omicron came through last year, turned out to be milder and now we're all worrying about other stuff instead (Ukraine, cost of living...). (Although yes for the immunocompromised things continue to be really tough, I have a couple of friends in that position). Politically there was never that much difference between our main political parties (disagreements about what the best thing to do was and when but agreement that we needed to do something).
I think in the USA because the whole question of whether covid was even a thing became a political issue right from the start, you are now somewhat stuck in two opposing feedback loops, with each group getting fed articles that re-inforce the views they are already invested in. Also from over here it does seem like you've got this strong two-party division running through every level of your society, so every issue becomes this 'pick a side and cheer your side on' thing. So now everyone's got a few years heavy investment into their chosen positions and its going to rumble on for a long time.
posted by memebake at 5:13 AM on January 16, 2023 [10 favorites]
Abelmeveny: Everyone's individual reality, all smooshed together across the windshield, and the imperfect wiper blades of science squishing it all back and forth, back and forth - yes that
Over here in the UK, my personal experience is that things are mostly back to normal now. Omicron came through last year, turned out to be milder and now we're all worrying about other stuff instead (Ukraine, cost of living...). (Although yes for the immunocompromised things continue to be really tough, I have a couple of friends in that position). Politically there was never that much difference between our main political parties (disagreements about what the best thing to do was and when but agreement that we needed to do something).
I think in the USA because the whole question of whether covid was even a thing became a political issue right from the start, you are now somewhat stuck in two opposing feedback loops, with each group getting fed articles that re-inforce the views they are already invested in. Also from over here it does seem like you've got this strong two-party division running through every level of your society, so every issue becomes this 'pick a side and cheer your side on' thing. So now everyone's got a few years heavy investment into their chosen positions and its going to rumble on for a long time.
posted by memebake at 5:13 AM on January 16, 2023 [10 favorites]
With my epidemiologist hat on, before clicking I hoped the comment section wouldn't look like this. Alas,
Wow, the war on similes is going great. Too bad about the war on deadly infectious disease, though.
Ah, well.
posted by MrVisible at 12:45 PM on January 15 [7 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]
Sigh. Indeed.
"Masks = caring" is such a good, reasonable message. To her point that "[s]ome schools are too far gone to listen," and expanding to include any community (not just a school), bringing forward and emphasizing this message of caring is a good sort test. If that message is rejected, and rejected, and rejected, that is a good indicator that your energy is better used elsewhere. Come back to the rejected pile once you're worked your message through everyone else. If you have extra time and energy, that's when to and how to try to use it.
posted by late afternoon dreaming hotel at 5:39 AM on January 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
Wow, the war on similes is going great. Too bad about the war on deadly infectious disease, though.
Ah, well.
posted by MrVisible at 12:45 PM on January 15 [7 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]
Sigh. Indeed.
"Masks = caring" is such a good, reasonable message. To her point that "[s]ome schools are too far gone to listen," and expanding to include any community (not just a school), bringing forward and emphasizing this message of caring is a good sort test. If that message is rejected, and rejected, and rejected, that is a good indicator that your energy is better used elsewhere. Come back to the rejected pile once you're worked your message through everyone else. If you have extra time and energy, that's when to and how to try to use it.
posted by late afternoon dreaming hotel at 5:39 AM on January 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
I can see how some people are interpreting the HIV comparison as a public health metaphor, but the article's links get a little more specific; e.g. "We observe a comparable reduction in B cells in both diseases and a more severe reduction in the total amount of T cells in COVID-19 as compared to AIDS patients." (AIDS and COVID-19 are two diseases separated by a common lymphocytopenia).
posted by nicolaitanes at 7:01 AM on January 16, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by nicolaitanes at 7:01 AM on January 16, 2023 [7 favorites]
Which was sort of understandable in July 2020, in a technical, non-peer-reviewed preprint.
If it's 2023 and you're still citing the 2020 preprint? And your blog is not clearly distinguishing both chronic/acute diseases, and severe/mild COVID? You are not doing good science writing for the public, and you should do better.
posted by sourcejedi at 8:56 AM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
If it's 2023 and you're still citing the 2020 preprint? And your blog is not clearly distinguishing both chronic/acute diseases, and severe/mild COVID? You are not doing good science writing for the public, and you should do better.
posted by sourcejedi at 8:56 AM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
A broken arm is like hyperthyroid: they both cause tachycardia. See how useless a metaphor that is?
Researchers, epidemiologists, physicians, etc do not for the most part find "COVID is like HIV" a useful metaphor. Why not just say, "We have evidence that COVID can harm our immune function" or something factual instead of making alarmist, inaccurate, and potentially harmful comparisons?
Whatever. I don't think it's honestly that big a deal we're all just super traumatized by the last 3 years and we're not going to solve the problem in the MetaFilter comments section, but recommendation that folks who have no training in virology or whatnot should probably avoid dying on the hill of COVID is HIV.
posted by latkes at 9:02 AM on January 16, 2023 [15 favorites]
Researchers, epidemiologists, physicians, etc do not for the most part find "COVID is like HIV" a useful metaphor. Why not just say, "We have evidence that COVID can harm our immune function" or something factual instead of making alarmist, inaccurate, and potentially harmful comparisons?
Whatever. I don't think it's honestly that big a deal we're all just super traumatized by the last 3 years and we're not going to solve the problem in the MetaFilter comments section, but recommendation that folks who have no training in virology or whatnot should probably avoid dying on the hill of COVID is HIV.
posted by latkes at 9:02 AM on January 16, 2023 [15 favorites]
I don’t believe this actually happened as described. The author is either completely making this up, or the “school” is a tiny coop preschool with like 8 families.
There’s no description of working through any bureaucracy; just they talked about a list of points and wow! everyone agreed. This is not how change occurs in any public or reasonably large private school.
They overcame the resource challenges by just donating the supplies. Neat! But how does this work in a regular elementary or even preschool with hundreds of kids?
Normalizing seasonal masking is an interesting idea worthy of discussion, but this work of fantasy is not going to shed light on any of the problems or potential solutions.
posted by jeoc at 9:55 AM on January 16, 2023 [7 favorites]
There’s no description of working through any bureaucracy; just they talked about a list of points and wow! everyone agreed. This is not how change occurs in any public or reasonably large private school.
They overcame the resource challenges by just donating the supplies. Neat! But how does this work in a regular elementary or even preschool with hundreds of kids?
Normalizing seasonal masking is an interesting idea worthy of discussion, but this work of fantasy is not going to shed light on any of the problems or potential solutions.
posted by jeoc at 9:55 AM on January 16, 2023 [7 favorites]
Zeynep Tufekci has been on the money throughout this and is currently trying to persuade people who follow on Twitter that the whole "COVID permanently damages the immune system" business (which I assume was what the analogy to HIV was about, not just that it's bad) is not what studies have shown. Rather, it's a temporary effect, from what I can gather (thread link to Independent SAGE video conference of immunologists: Indie SAGE are definitely on the hawkish side).
I agree that COVID risk maximising and minimising (and the derived attitudes to prevention measures) seem to have become part of the ongoing culture war in the USA. I see a few masks in shops here in the UK and wore an FFP2 one myself when I went to the pharmacy with a sore throat.
Kids are grubby, seems unlikely they'll wear a mask correctly, and very unlikely they'll suffer serious effects if they are infected. Masks cut off a good bit of non-verbal communication, so there is a cost to them. I'm largely happy to pay if I have to be out and about with cold symptoms as it seems likely they have some effect, but I can't see many parents in the UK going along with it for their kids.
posted by pw201 at 10:03 AM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I agree that COVID risk maximising and minimising (and the derived attitudes to prevention measures) seem to have become part of the ongoing culture war in the USA. I see a few masks in shops here in the UK and wore an FFP2 one myself when I went to the pharmacy with a sore throat.
Kids are grubby, seems unlikely they'll wear a mask correctly, and very unlikely they'll suffer serious effects if they are infected. Masks cut off a good bit of non-verbal communication, so there is a cost to them. I'm largely happy to pay if I have to be out and about with cold symptoms as it seems likely they have some effect, but I can't see many parents in the UK going along with it for their kids.
posted by pw201 at 10:03 AM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
If it's 2023 and you're still citing the 2020 preprint? And your blog is not clearly distinguishing both chronic/acute diseases, and severe/mild COVID? You are not doing good science writing for the public, and you should do better.
This is par for the course with "COVID gives you AIDS" doomerism. It's the only way to muster the appearance of scientific support for the idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:10 AM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is par for the course with "COVID gives you AIDS" doomerism. It's the only way to muster the appearance of scientific support for the idea.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:10 AM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
I don't think about my mask anymore. I keep a few clean ones near my wallet and keys, and grabbing one is part of dressing to go out. On sunny days, I will sometimes grab a pair of sunglasses too.
I decided this would be part of my life for a long time right around the same time I understood that United States leadership under both major political parties were fine with having a couple preventable 9/11s a week or so on account of "the economy." When I accepted that no real help was coming, I accepted masking for life.
I am middle management at a facility popular with suburban boomers. We required masking for awhile, but stopped. Sometimes we'll get a caller who wants us to promise we'll never ask this tiny thing of them again, to just be an adult in a world with other people, and put on a mask. An absolute nothing ask. What I know is that we won't, that my company will never have the courage to insist on masks again, even as we lose huge projects to Covid outbreaks. What I tell these callers is that if masking is a deal breaker for you, you're better off not spending any money on a booking. Please look elsewhere then, yes, that is certainly your right, yes sir, go right ahead.
Under quarantine, I thrived. My year or so without a commute was one of the finest I can recall of the last 20. Ever since "reopening," life has been a struggle trying to keep hold of everything I gained when I didn't need to lose 15 hours or so a week to fucking train and bus rides. A lot of us are still wearing masks. A lot of us are even pulling them up off our chins and over our noses. If I look around the car and see like 10% compliance, I know I picked a pretty good one. I need to build a life where I can quarantine myself as much as possible and still have secure resources, because I can only trust my country and my neighbors to make the wrong call at every juncture.
posted by EatTheWeek at 10:18 AM on January 16, 2023 [16 favorites]
I decided this would be part of my life for a long time right around the same time I understood that United States leadership under both major political parties were fine with having a couple preventable 9/11s a week or so on account of "the economy." When I accepted that no real help was coming, I accepted masking for life.
I am middle management at a facility popular with suburban boomers. We required masking for awhile, but stopped. Sometimes we'll get a caller who wants us to promise we'll never ask this tiny thing of them again, to just be an adult in a world with other people, and put on a mask. An absolute nothing ask. What I know is that we won't, that my company will never have the courage to insist on masks again, even as we lose huge projects to Covid outbreaks. What I tell these callers is that if masking is a deal breaker for you, you're better off not spending any money on a booking. Please look elsewhere then, yes, that is certainly your right, yes sir, go right ahead.
Under quarantine, I thrived. My year or so without a commute was one of the finest I can recall of the last 20. Ever since "reopening," life has been a struggle trying to keep hold of everything I gained when I didn't need to lose 15 hours or so a week to fucking train and bus rides. A lot of us are still wearing masks. A lot of us are even pulling them up off our chins and over our noses. If I look around the car and see like 10% compliance, I know I picked a pretty good one. I need to build a life where I can quarantine myself as much as possible and still have secure resources, because I can only trust my country and my neighbors to make the wrong call at every juncture.
posted by EatTheWeek at 10:18 AM on January 16, 2023 [16 favorites]
So is the deal that in the US we should use masks on and off in waves like umbrellas depending on the outlook for transmission, or should this be done whenever there's an indoor crowd, indefinitely?
posted by Selena777 at 10:24 AM on January 16, 2023
posted by Selena777 at 10:24 AM on January 16, 2023
I think we need to be doing it indoors indefinitely unless everyone puts in a lot of effort to install HEPA filters everywhere (yeah right, that'll never happen). It sounds like "waves" is at best the compromise situation people bring up for the mask haters. Not sure what the point of that is since covid is constant and year round and not seasonal and you might get a few weeks of mask-free and then guess what, infection goes up again.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:47 AM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:47 AM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
The real enemy probably isn't schools and families, it's corporate power. They're the entities that exploit worker safety, and by extension the lack of sound Covid public policy which includes school boards. It's corporate business interests that want the economy up and running and this kind of vested interest is what underlies the austerity ideology of no long-term planning for the pandemic, so no support for masking, no infrastructure specifically ventilation. This underlying structure problem seems plausible to me.
posted by polymodus at 12:31 PM on January 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by polymodus at 12:31 PM on January 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
So is the deal that in the US we should use masks on and off in waves like umbrellas depending on the outlook for transmission, or should this be done whenever there's an indoor crowd, indefinitely?
Or, more realistically, the US keeps doing what it is doing and mask wearing settles out at a very low level on average, though with areas and sub-communities with higher rates, and average rates cycling up and down based on perceptions of risk at a given time. Given that the entire rest of the world, outside of a portion of countries in Asia, is in the same boat of not requiring masks nor really normalizing them all that much, I have a great deal of trouble imagining any other outcome here.
(And yes, one of the profoundly crappy pieces of this is the collective multi-national shrug about people who are at higher risk. Even if mask wearing is assumed to be off the table, there are still other things that can be done that have been listed by experts and included in comments in these threads here, like raising ventilation standards, that just aren't being done.)
posted by Dip Flash at 12:40 PM on January 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
Or, more realistically, the US keeps doing what it is doing and mask wearing settles out at a very low level on average, though with areas and sub-communities with higher rates, and average rates cycling up and down based on perceptions of risk at a given time. Given that the entire rest of the world, outside of a portion of countries in Asia, is in the same boat of not requiring masks nor really normalizing them all that much, I have a great deal of trouble imagining any other outcome here.
(And yes, one of the profoundly crappy pieces of this is the collective multi-national shrug about people who are at higher risk. Even if mask wearing is assumed to be off the table, there are still other things that can be done that have been listed by experts and included in comments in these threads here, like raising ventilation standards, that just aren't being done.)
posted by Dip Flash at 12:40 PM on January 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
Note to future self:
When convincing my schools to bring back masks, do everything it says in the article except don't bring up HIV like that because that's loaded and will bounce people off your main message. Just say it affects the immune system.
Best regards,
Your old self
posted by hypnogogue at 2:20 PM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
When convincing my schools to bring back masks, do everything it says in the article except don't bring up HIV like that because that's loaded and will bounce people off your main message. Just say it affects the immune system.
Best regards,
Your old self
posted by hypnogogue at 2:20 PM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
I think we need to be doing it indoors indefinitely unless everyone puts in a lot of effort to install HEPA filters everywhere (yeah right, that'll never happen)
I don't understand how it could be effectively impossible to do upgrades to filter the air in public places and masking "indoors indefinitely" is a more plausible outcome. If you can't convince the smaller number of people required to do the ventilation enhancements, how do you convince the larger set of people to wear masks?
posted by ndfine at 2:32 PM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
I don't understand how it could be effectively impossible to do upgrades to filter the air in public places and masking "indoors indefinitely" is a more plausible outcome. If you can't convince the smaller number of people required to do the ventilation enhancements, how do you convince the larger set of people to wear masks?
posted by ndfine at 2:32 PM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
We literally can't convince anyone else to do anything regarding covid. All you can do is mask for yourself indefinitely.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:01 PM on January 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:01 PM on January 16, 2023 [9 favorites]
Come back and re-read this comment in two years: You wont need to mask indefinitely. There's nothing magically bad about covid as a virus, its a pretty mean virus but the main reason it was dangerous was because our bodies had not seen it before. It is becoming milder over time (Delta to Omicron for example) and exposure and vaccination do build better protection (all those headlines about 'new strain evades antibodies' always ignore the t-cell response which is much less sensitive to changes in the virus). The reason our immune systems are so complicated it that we co-evolved with a whole horde of pathogens over millions of years. Covid isn't bringing anything to the table that we havent beaten before, other than a bit of species-hopping novelty. The common cold (actually a bunch of endemic viruses) includes some coronaviruses and eventually covid will just be one of them.
We were overdue for a pandemic, if anything we got lucky because (a) it mostly left kids alone and (b) it happened at a time when we had the technology to shelter at home, track its evolution across the globe, and produce effective vaccines within about 12 months of its first appearance. If it had happened 20 years ago (in 2002 say, with SARS-1) it might have been a lot worse.
posted by memebake at 3:37 PM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
We were overdue for a pandemic, if anything we got lucky because (a) it mostly left kids alone and (b) it happened at a time when we had the technology to shelter at home, track its evolution across the globe, and produce effective vaccines within about 12 months of its first appearance. If it had happened 20 years ago (in 2002 say, with SARS-1) it might have been a lot worse.
posted by memebake at 3:37 PM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
I don't think there's much evolutionary pressure to make it milder, not since we started vaccinations and anti-virals - not as many people are dying, certainly there hasn't been enough time for that - I think we've been lucky that Omicron is milder than Delta
posted by mbo at 3:50 PM on January 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by mbo at 3:50 PM on January 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
I think we've been lucky that Omicron is milder than Delta
My understanding is that Omicron optimised for upper respiratory (so better at spreading) at the expense of lower respiratory (so its not as good at attacking the lungs as previous variants). Its evolution was not guaranteed to happen that way, but thats what happened. Perhaps we were lucky. Regardless, my main point above is that the main advantage covid had over us was novelty, and over time it is losing that.
posted by memebake at 4:00 PM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
My understanding is that Omicron optimised for upper respiratory (so better at spreading) at the expense of lower respiratory (so its not as good at attacking the lungs as previous variants). Its evolution was not guaranteed to happen that way, but thats what happened. Perhaps we were lucky. Regardless, my main point above is that the main advantage covid had over us was novelty, and over time it is losing that.
posted by memebake at 4:00 PM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's corporate business interests that want the economy up and running
I mean, it depends. The tech industry is really unhappy that we all started going outside again; the sky-high valuations some of these companies reached during the pandemic (Peloton, etc) were predicated on the idea that there would be a permanent class of well-to-do shut-ins. Meta's "Metaverse" enthusiasm seems founded on the same idea. Those valuations came crashing down because it turns out people don't want to live that lifestyle, no matter how many slick Peloton ads they ran.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:22 PM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
I mean, it depends. The tech industry is really unhappy that we all started going outside again; the sky-high valuations some of these companies reached during the pandemic (Peloton, etc) were predicated on the idea that there would be a permanent class of well-to-do shut-ins. Meta's "Metaverse" enthusiasm seems founded on the same idea. Those valuations came crashing down because it turns out people don't want to live that lifestyle, no matter how many slick Peloton ads they ran.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:22 PM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
Just a reminder that although each individual infected with Omicron was less likely to require hospitalization than individuals infected with Delta, Omicron was much more contagious than Delta, and so our hospitals were still fuller than they were with Delta because so many more people were sick. And we still know very little about the long-term effects of either variant yet, so pronouncing either as milder than the other beyond the acute phase is premature.
Most importantly, evolution is not directional. Just because Omicron was less individually dangerous but more contagious tells us nothing about what the next variant might be like. It absolutely does not mean that the next new variant will not be both more dangerous and more contagious. And we have no idea how long the immunity folks currently have gained from infection and vaccination will last or whether COVID will evolve in a directly that evades that immunity.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:24 PM on January 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
Most importantly, evolution is not directional. Just because Omicron was less individually dangerous but more contagious tells us nothing about what the next variant might be like. It absolutely does not mean that the next new variant will not be both more dangerous and more contagious. And we have no idea how long the immunity folks currently have gained from infection and vaccination will last or whether COVID will evolve in a directly that evades that immunity.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:24 PM on January 16, 2023 [12 favorites]
What hydropsyche said. More people have died from omicron in the last year than from the other variants in the two years previous. Sure the probability that you, individually, will have a serious case conditioned on getting omicron versus other variants is lower, but the probability that you will get omicron is so much higher that the product of the two (= actual number of serious cases: hospitalizations and deaths) is higher.
You see the opposite effect in something like Ebola, where the survival rate is quite scary, but transmissibility is much lower, so overall number of people dying of either of Ebola is quite small.
The whole pandemic has really highlighted the general lack of math skills among a large proportion of people, in an unsurprising but rather discouraging way.
posted by eviemath at 4:52 PM on January 16, 2023 [13 favorites]
You see the opposite effect in something like Ebola, where the survival rate is quite scary, but transmissibility is much lower, so overall number of people dying of either of Ebola is quite small.
The whole pandemic has really highlighted the general lack of math skills among a large proportion of people, in an unsurprising but rather discouraging way.
posted by eviemath at 4:52 PM on January 16, 2023 [13 favorites]
Come back and re-read this comment in two years: You wont need to mask indefinitely. There's nothing magically bad about covid as a virus, its a pretty mean virus but the main reason it was dangerous was because our bodies had not seen it before.
Among other assumptions here, the one that there aren't any more pandemics in our future is certainly false. I was in an ecology class discussing climate change many, many years ago and it's extremely likely that we will begin to see more and more novel viruses, not fewer. People moving further into stressed ecosystems with stressed animal life, new vectors for existing disease, unrest over resources causing mass migrations of humans, politicization of vaccination, migration of animals into new areas due to former habit becoming inhabitable- we've cooked up a mighty stew of cascading issues that aren't going away any time soon, if ever.
posted by oneirodynia at 6:21 PM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
Among other assumptions here, the one that there aren't any more pandemics in our future is certainly false. I was in an ecology class discussing climate change many, many years ago and it's extremely likely that we will begin to see more and more novel viruses, not fewer. People moving further into stressed ecosystems with stressed animal life, new vectors for existing disease, unrest over resources causing mass migrations of humans, politicization of vaccination, migration of animals into new areas due to former habit becoming inhabitable- we've cooked up a mighty stew of cascading issues that aren't going away any time soon, if ever.
posted by oneirodynia at 6:21 PM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
In addition to HEPA filters, germicidal UV!
Two varieties: traditional UV-C uses 254 nm light, and requires deployment so that humans aren't directly exposed to the light. This can be done relatively easily anywhere that has a dropped ceiling (offices, schools). This is very well studied and effective, but not commonly used outside of industrial settings right now.
The other type is far-UVC at 222 nm, which is harmless to humans but still effective against germs and viruses. It's less well-studied, but the fact that you can expose people to it directly makes it extremely promising.
I really believe that filtration + UVC is how we get out of this mess. Both sides of that need much more funding than they're getting right now.
posted by vibratory manner of working at 6:32 PM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
Two varieties: traditional UV-C uses 254 nm light, and requires deployment so that humans aren't directly exposed to the light. This can be done relatively easily anywhere that has a dropped ceiling (offices, schools). This is very well studied and effective, but not commonly used outside of industrial settings right now.
The other type is far-UVC at 222 nm, which is harmless to humans but still effective against germs and viruses. It's less well-studied, but the fact that you can expose people to it directly makes it extremely promising.
I really believe that filtration + UVC is how we get out of this mess. Both sides of that need much more funding than they're getting right now.
posted by vibratory manner of working at 6:32 PM on January 16, 2023 [8 favorites]
I can't find it right now, but there's an Opera house that was designed in the wake of the 1918 pandemic that was built with an air vent, connected to outside air, at each and every seat. We know how to do this.
posted by vibratory manner of working at 8:21 PM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by vibratory manner of working at 8:21 PM on January 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
oh yeah one of my favorite Turns Outs is that New York's infamous radiators run way too hot because they were designed to be used with the windows open, for ventilation
posted by DoctorFedora at 9:21 PM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by DoctorFedora at 9:21 PM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'll probably make an update comment in about a month in another COVID thread, as next week will be Chinese/Lunar New Year season, and we've also allowed China inbound travellers (so there'll be a lot of reunions; but not just China, all the other more //institutionally// irresponsible countries with plenty of Malaysian diaspora coming home too) as well if there'll be a spike. We have protocols now in place, both in wastewater detection for inbound planes as well as wheeling out our SARS-era body temperature scanners at the immigration control areas (for everyone, not just China-specific).
I've mentioned before the differences in our built environment (and a lot of sunlight, if that Vit D connection still holds up), and our culture of masking (which is now settled along ethnicity and geography lines - less urbanized areas don't mask, Chinese Malaysians and more urban people tend to mask, but people mask). Our vaccination rates are shaky (takeup for the second booster is hovering at only 50%). But if you can believe official data (Confirmed Cases graph but same for the other indicators), we've not had even a New Year spike, and we're actually on a downtrend for almost a month now.
And I've mentioned my mixed office demographic. depressingly, it's just the East and Southeast Asians who still have some sense about masking. To generalise, all other regions just... can't be bothered.
But look at our numbers! It's possible!
re: zumbador - i'm testing out a locally made clear mask. I did a review but I'm genuinely unable to advise anyone to buy it internationally because it's a hassle, but it genuinely does seem to work, right down to non-fogging. I think they've registered the IP but I wonder if a multinational SME partnership can happen.
posted by cendawanita at 9:59 PM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I've mentioned before the differences in our built environment (and a lot of sunlight, if that Vit D connection still holds up), and our culture of masking (which is now settled along ethnicity and geography lines - less urbanized areas don't mask, Chinese Malaysians and more urban people tend to mask, but people mask). Our vaccination rates are shaky (takeup for the second booster is hovering at only 50%). But if you can believe official data (Confirmed Cases graph but same for the other indicators), we've not had even a New Year spike, and we're actually on a downtrend for almost a month now.
And I've mentioned my mixed office demographic. depressingly, it's just the East and Southeast Asians who still have some sense about masking. To generalise, all other regions just... can't be bothered.
But look at our numbers! It's possible!
re: zumbador - i'm testing out a locally made clear mask. I did a review but I'm genuinely unable to advise anyone to buy it internationally because it's a hassle, but it genuinely does seem to work, right down to non-fogging. I think they've registered the IP but I wonder if a multinational SME partnership can happen.
posted by cendawanita at 9:59 PM on January 16, 2023 [4 favorites]
I can't find it right now, but there's an Opera house that was designed in the wake of the 1918 pandemic that was built with an air vent, connected to outside air, at each and every seat. We know how to do this.
Was it the Orpheum in Vancouver?
https://mobile.twitter.com/moss_sphagnum/status/1537686147660271616
posted by mydonkeybenjamin at 10:29 PM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
Was it the Orpheum in Vancouver?
https://mobile.twitter.com/moss_sphagnum/status/1537686147660271616
posted by mydonkeybenjamin at 10:29 PM on January 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
> Was it the Orpheum in Vancouver?
Yes! That's the exact twitter thread I was thinking of, thank you!
posted by vibratory manner of working at 12:05 AM on January 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes! That's the exact twitter thread I was thinking of, thank you!
posted by vibratory manner of working at 12:05 AM on January 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
This spotted on Twitter made me laugh:
There are two types of COVID accounts:posted by twsf at 7:19 AM on January 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
1. Every heart condition, ever, is due to the vaccine. Vax is going to kill everyone.
2. We must be vaccinated every 3 mos, w/ N95 masks + Chinese-style lockdowns. To do otherwise is anti-science + eugenics. Everyone I know has long COVID.
Oh yes, ha ha, how droll, the public relations entities who made masks a political football instead of an obvious, no-brainer way to protect yourself and others are using a two-pronged approach, making both sides of the debate seem like they're equally lunatic. That's so totally novel. How jocular. Never seen that one before.
Nice way to encourage people to choose a 'middle ground' that's, what... unconcerned about Covid and feeling smug about those other people who worry about it.
Ha ha.
posted by MrVisible at 8:50 AM on January 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Nice way to encourage people to choose a 'middle ground' that's, what... unconcerned about Covid and feeling smug about those other people who worry about it.
Ha ha.
posted by MrVisible at 8:50 AM on January 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
As someone who spends a lot of time in special needs spaces, I can testify that quarantine had a deleterious effect on many kids’ therapies. And when in-person therapy resumed, masking was and is a challenge specifically for students receiving speech therapy and social skills therapies, in the first case because they want the child to SEE the therapists mouth make speech sounds, in order to imitate them, and in the second case because such students may be receiving, literally, lessons in how to interpret people’s expressions.
Wouldn't it be great if people generally masked in other situations, so that unmasking for therapy was .... safe?
Wouldn't if be great if we all approached masking with a cost/benefit, conditional perspective? Like, restaurants would be safer for us all, if everyone masked on public transit?
I know, I know.
posted by Dashy at 8:59 AM on January 17, 2023 [14 favorites]
Wouldn't it be great if people generally masked in other situations, so that unmasking for therapy was .... safe?
Wouldn't if be great if we all approached masking with a cost/benefit, conditional perspective? Like, restaurants would be safer for us all, if everyone masked on public transit?
I know, I know.
posted by Dashy at 8:59 AM on January 17, 2023 [14 favorites]
Stop being so unreasonable, Dashy. Clearly you are advocating Chinese-style lockdowns...
posted by hydropsyche at 9:01 AM on January 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 9:01 AM on January 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
The "more like HIV than flu" comparison is just too multifactorial to even evaluate.
Overall, the point that covid damages the immune system is much more supported than not. But then you get people nitpicking about a specific set of T cells.
Breadth: Overall, the point about multi-system damage is true. People do need to understand that covid is not limited to respiratory system, even if the initial acute illness seems like just a sniffly cold.
Duration: Covid is much more likely to give you medical aftereffects you'll spend the rest of your life with; not dissimilar to living with HIV. For a nontrivial fraction, it is disabling.
Population: Excess deaths ... that story is, well, not the flu. The contagiousness. In this sense, the comparison reveals that covid is much worse than HIV.
Emotion: The socio-emotional baggage that comes along with HIV is way too much. Some older bigots still squeak about gay sex, for starters. Many people still understand HIV as leprosy, basically, and react emotionally on that level. Different generations understand HIV differently, because it really did evolve as an issue over 30 years. So you can't make that comparison publicly and have it ... work widely.
posted by Dashy at 9:13 AM on January 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Overall, the point that covid damages the immune system is much more supported than not. But then you get people nitpicking about a specific set of T cells.
Breadth: Overall, the point about multi-system damage is true. People do need to understand that covid is not limited to respiratory system, even if the initial acute illness seems like just a sniffly cold.
Duration: Covid is much more likely to give you medical aftereffects you'll spend the rest of your life with; not dissimilar to living with HIV. For a nontrivial fraction, it is disabling.
Population: Excess deaths ... that story is, well, not the flu. The contagiousness. In this sense, the comparison reveals that covid is much worse than HIV.
Emotion: The socio-emotional baggage that comes along with HIV is way too much. Some older bigots still squeak about gay sex, for starters. Many people still understand HIV as leprosy, basically, and react emotionally on that level. Different generations understand HIV differently, because it really did evolve as an issue over 30 years. So you can't make that comparison publicly and have it ... work widely.
posted by Dashy at 9:13 AM on January 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Overall, the point that covid damages the immune system is much more supported than not. But then you get people nitpicking about a specific set of T cells.
It's not nitpicking about specific sets of T-cells; it's about immunologists who are saying that long COVID patients don't have any evidence of t-cell depletion and that it looks nothing like HIV.
eg: "We are also analyzing T cells in very deep profiling in blood of long Covid patients, no evidence whatsoever of any T cell depletion, nothing like HIV at all (we have done a lot of analysis of HIV patients in the past as well)" and further up that thread, "in people who aren't facing lethal infection hospital [sic], we've never really seen evidence for covid infection knocking down your T-cells in any kind of ongoing way. So I'm not convinced it's a thing unless you are very severely infected." and "I haven't seen a lot of convincing evidence... on a long term effect on T-cells" and "There is no data of immune cell depletion nor of dysfunction." All of these quotes are from immunologists.
Nobody disputes that if you are hospitalized for covid your immune system might take six months to recover, but then your lungs, heart, and brain might take six months to recover, too- covid can just fuck all your body up. That's not unusual for an acute infection though. When people invoke HIV there's the implication that it fucks up your immune system forever. But immunologists researching long COVID haven't found evidence for that!
It's possible that the immune system is a part of the mechanism of Long Covid, but to some extent it doesn't matter what the mechanism is when it comes to evaluating the risk. Long covid is very nasty whether it's an immune dysregulation or something else; you can just talk about long covid risks if that's what you're worried about without committing to a mechanism, since the science on the causes of long covid are (woefully!) incomplete.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:37 PM on January 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
It's not nitpicking about specific sets of T-cells; it's about immunologists who are saying that long COVID patients don't have any evidence of t-cell depletion and that it looks nothing like HIV.
eg: "We are also analyzing T cells in very deep profiling in blood of long Covid patients, no evidence whatsoever of any T cell depletion, nothing like HIV at all (we have done a lot of analysis of HIV patients in the past as well)" and further up that thread, "in people who aren't facing lethal infection hospital [sic], we've never really seen evidence for covid infection knocking down your T-cells in any kind of ongoing way. So I'm not convinced it's a thing unless you are very severely infected." and "I haven't seen a lot of convincing evidence... on a long term effect on T-cells" and "There is no data of immune cell depletion nor of dysfunction." All of these quotes are from immunologists.
Nobody disputes that if you are hospitalized for covid your immune system might take six months to recover, but then your lungs, heart, and brain might take six months to recover, too- covid can just fuck all your body up. That's not unusual for an acute infection though. When people invoke HIV there's the implication that it fucks up your immune system forever. But immunologists researching long COVID haven't found evidence for that!
It's possible that the immune system is a part of the mechanism of Long Covid, but to some extent it doesn't matter what the mechanism is when it comes to evaluating the risk. Long covid is very nasty whether it's an immune dysregulation or something else; you can just talk about long covid risks if that's what you're worried about without committing to a mechanism, since the science on the causes of long covid are (woefully!) incomplete.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:37 PM on January 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
>>I said the uncomfortable things, [...] that Covid was never going away
Masks don’t have to be permanent.
>This doesn't make sense to me. Could someone clarify how both of these can be simultaneously true?
Well, it wasn't clarified in the article, or in the resource in a very easy-to-find way (that I could see) either. And it seems a rather major point, one that should be addressed.
Flip side, it doesn't seem THAT hard to figure out. In fact we ought to/should have been doing this kind of masking for infectious disease in the past, like flu. I can't really quite figure out why we haven't.
But:
- When you are sick or have symptoms, you mask - in those situations where you (for whatever reason) are required to be around other people, rather than staying home and getting better
- When there is a surge in cases in your area, you mask for a while until the surge goes back down - especially in places where many people congregate and disease can spread easily, like schools.
Particularly in schools, when local flu outbreaks and such reach a certain level, they will close down the school or a few days until it dies down. (One reason for that, of course, is if so many of the students and teachers are sick you don't even have enough staff to operate the school.)
So you can see the masking as a lower level step on the way to that closure - and one thing you are hoping is, you slow down the spread with masks and maybe you won't NEED to close. So you implement masking when the rate is 1/10 or 1/4 (or whatever exact number you choose) of the rate where you could close the school. And you keep it in place until the surge in cases goes back down.
Now there is going to be debate one which EXACT number to choose as the trigger to implement, for example, masking in schools. And no one is ever going to agree on EXACTLY where that should be.
But in principle it is going to be at a point where you can see the numbers are above the normal baseline and where it looks like a surge in cases is on the way. You can argue the specifics, but just looking at the data for a given area, this is not that difficult. You can usually see surges coming at least a few weeks out, and then receding pretty clearly.
posted by flug at 2:50 PM on January 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Masks don’t have to be permanent.
>This doesn't make sense to me. Could someone clarify how both of these can be simultaneously true?
Well, it wasn't clarified in the article, or in the resource in a very easy-to-find way (that I could see) either. And it seems a rather major point, one that should be addressed.
Flip side, it doesn't seem THAT hard to figure out. In fact we ought to/should have been doing this kind of masking for infectious disease in the past, like flu. I can't really quite figure out why we haven't.
But:
- When you are sick or have symptoms, you mask - in those situations where you (for whatever reason) are required to be around other people, rather than staying home and getting better
- When there is a surge in cases in your area, you mask for a while until the surge goes back down - especially in places where many people congregate and disease can spread easily, like schools.
Particularly in schools, when local flu outbreaks and such reach a certain level, they will close down the school or a few days until it dies down. (One reason for that, of course, is if so many of the students and teachers are sick you don't even have enough staff to operate the school.)
So you can see the masking as a lower level step on the way to that closure - and one thing you are hoping is, you slow down the spread with masks and maybe you won't NEED to close. So you implement masking when the rate is 1/10 or 1/4 (or whatever exact number you choose) of the rate where you could close the school. And you keep it in place until the surge in cases goes back down.
Now there is going to be debate one which EXACT number to choose as the trigger to implement, for example, masking in schools. And no one is ever going to agree on EXACTLY where that should be.
But in principle it is going to be at a point where you can see the numbers are above the normal baseline and where it looks like a surge in cases is on the way. You can argue the specifics, but just looking at the data for a given area, this is not that difficult. You can usually see surges coming at least a few weeks out, and then receding pretty clearly.
posted by flug at 2:50 PM on January 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
The other thing I will point out about this approach that seems sensible - for Covid but also for other diseases such as influenza - is that it does make sense to reduce exposure, and number of cases, as much as reasonably possible.
That is to say, if a given person has 3 cases of Covid (say, over a lifetime) vs 10 vs 30 vs 80 that is probably a significant and important difference.
Are people, on average, going to have 2 cases per year or a case every couple of years?
It is clear we are not going to be totally rid of Covid (ever) but it makes a lot of sense to think about limiting people's exposure to it in reasonable ways, rather than just shrugging and letting it rip through the population at the maximal possible rate.
That's why, to me, it makes sense to use masking as a strategy a lot more often during cold/flu/covid seasons - much like people have been doing in Asian countries for many decades now - and implement things like masking in school and other high density/high contact areas whenever there is a surge in those kinds of diseases going on.
Not ALL the time, but during the times when the diseases are more prevalent, and in the places where transmission is more likely.
posted by flug at 2:57 PM on January 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
That is to say, if a given person has 3 cases of Covid (say, over a lifetime) vs 10 vs 30 vs 80 that is probably a significant and important difference.
Are people, on average, going to have 2 cases per year or a case every couple of years?
It is clear we are not going to be totally rid of Covid (ever) but it makes a lot of sense to think about limiting people's exposure to it in reasonable ways, rather than just shrugging and letting it rip through the population at the maximal possible rate.
That's why, to me, it makes sense to use masking as a strategy a lot more often during cold/flu/covid seasons - much like people have been doing in Asian countries for many decades now - and implement things like masking in school and other high density/high contact areas whenever there is a surge in those kinds of diseases going on.
Not ALL the time, but during the times when the diseases are more prevalent, and in the places where transmission is more likely.
posted by flug at 2:57 PM on January 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
More people have died from omicron in the last year than from the other variants in the two years previous.
Is this actually correct? Looking at charts of deaths in the US over time, it does not at all look like the deaths in the past calendar year exceed deaths prior to that.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:23 PM on January 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Is this actually correct? Looking at charts of deaths in the US over time, it does not at all look like the deaths in the past calendar year exceed deaths prior to that.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:23 PM on January 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
It is the case in Canada. I thought I recalled reading that it’s the case worldwide as well. The US did such an abysmal job responding to the pandemic initially (modulo local variation) that it may not be the case for the US? Sorry, I didn’t check that before writing a possibly overly-broad statement.
posted by eviemath at 3:54 AM on January 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 3:54 AM on January 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
It is the case in Canada. I thought I recalled reading that it’s the case worldwide as well. The US did such an abysmal job responding to the pandemic initially (modulo local variation) that it may not be the case for the US? Sorry, I didn’t check that before writing a possibly overly-broad statement.
Thank you for clarifying, I had missed that you were referring to Canada. If this link works, it should show a chart of daily covid deaths for both US and Canada, and it is visible how like you say, Canada stayed very low then ticked up slightly with Omicron, while the US had such horrifyingly high prior death rates that they overshadowed the deaths in 2022.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:40 AM on January 18, 2023
Thank you for clarifying, I had missed that you were referring to Canada. If this link works, it should show a chart of daily covid deaths for both US and Canada, and it is visible how like you say, Canada stayed very low then ticked up slightly with Omicron, while the US had such horrifyingly high prior death rates that they overshadowed the deaths in 2022.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:40 AM on January 18, 2023
A perverse upside of the western world's pandemic response is that it may well preserve the efficacy of masking as a defence against covid because it is so rarely and sparsely deployed there is very little selection pressure for the virus to evolve an ability to circumvent masking.
The downside of course is that it does have huge selection pressure to evade and disable our natural immune response and immune memory and we are giving it every possible opportunity to enable this.
posted by srboisvert at 10:03 AM on January 18, 2023
The downside of course is that it does have huge selection pressure to evade and disable our natural immune response and immune memory and we are giving it every possible opportunity to enable this.
posted by srboisvert at 10:03 AM on January 18, 2023
Meanwhile, in Florida
posted by twsf at 10:24 AM on January 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is proposing legislation to permanently ban Covid health measures aimed at mitigating the virus in the state. The legislation would prohibit vaccine and mask requirements in schools, mask requirements at businesses...He's a sociopath.
posted by twsf at 10:24 AM on January 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
More people have died from omicron in the last year than
A. though less lethal, omicron was (still is?) more transmissible.
B. this increase in transmissibility coincided with an overall lowering of our guard; for whatever reason, after almost two years of living cautiously, more and more people decided fuck it and returned to "normal".
So yeah, way more people got omicron than previous variants. So even though it had less chance of killing each individual, it infected way more individuals.
posted by philip-random at 10:27 AM on January 18, 2023
A. though less lethal, omicron was (still is?) more transmissible.
B. this increase in transmissibility coincided with an overall lowering of our guard; for whatever reason, after almost two years of living cautiously, more and more people decided fuck it and returned to "normal".
So yeah, way more people got omicron than previous variants. So even though it had less chance of killing each individual, it infected way more individuals.
posted by philip-random at 10:27 AM on January 18, 2023
If you scroll down to "New reported deaths by day" on this NYT page or visit the CDC page, there are basic graphs showing deaths over time.
posted by twsf at 11:39 AM on January 18, 2023
posted by twsf at 11:39 AM on January 18, 2023
Meanwhile, in Floridathis kind of nonsense is literally why Games Done Quick canceled their in-person event that was scheduled to be held in Florida a couple weeks ago, because their previous summer event was fully-enforced-masking (and resulted in no one going home sick!), but DeSantis went full-on Death Cult a while back and they didn't want to have to worry about any sort of potential legal repercussions for requiring masking at their event
granted, we should probably also be asking why a video game speedrunning charity event (which does admittedly benefit medical organizations like Doctors Without Borders) has a better masking policy than many events for actual medical professionals, but… one step at a time
posted by DoctorFedora at 4:41 PM on January 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
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It is not.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:29 AM on January 15, 2023 [74 favorites]