How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline

February 8, 2023 11:06 AM

"Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning." (from Seymour Hersh, who won the Pulitzer for uncovering the My Lai Massacre in Vietnam, and also broke stories on Watergate and Abu Ghraib)
posted by jeffburdges (43 comments total)

This seems like the sort of thing that you'd want in a forum with a *touch* more editorial and fact-checking oversight than Substack.
posted by sagc at 11:17 AM on February 8, 2023 [16 favorites]

Big big flags around Hersh for sure. He has a long history of breaking incredibly important stories and a more recent history with some yikes, especially re: Syria.
posted by feckless at 11:23 AM on February 8, 2023 [5 favorites]

it also seems like the sort of thing that would be more credible if it came from someone other than the post-2010, bin-laden-didn't-do-9/11, syrian-chemical-weapon-denial version of seymour hersh.

the man is not what he used to be.
posted by inire at 11:24 AM on February 8, 2023 [15 favorites]

Even if it is Hersh (the name of a substack means nothing), his credibility has come into question: The many problems with Seymour Hersh's Osama bin Laden conspiracy theory (Vox).
posted by meowzilla at 11:24 AM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

even if this IS Seymour Hersh, why put in on substack? if it's remotely verifiable why isn't it on the Grey Lady or the Post ?
posted by Dr. Twist at 11:25 AM on February 8, 2023 [5 favorites]

We must slow down our consumption of natural gas of course, given methane has causes 25x the warming of carbon dioxide. I'd therefore never criticize this bombing of course, even if it slightly raised my own power bills.

It's roughly the story "everyone knew anyways" of course, but actually Norway's involvement shall make denying this tricky for the US, but also limits responses by Germany, who need Norwegian fuel.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:26 AM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

Nope.
posted by aeshnid at 11:27 AM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

It doesn't feel entirely implausible but it states so much without verification that it's hard to take a face value as is.
posted by Ferreous at 11:28 AM on February 8, 2023

Turns out Biden read that Andreas Malm book after all!
posted by mittens at 11:28 AM on February 8, 2023 [4 favorites]

He only seems to refer to one source for the all the info in the article. Vladimir Putin?
posted by snofoam at 11:37 AM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

In the same way that the early reports suggesting it may have been a Russian op didn't make much sense, I'm not sure why someone who was so involved the NordStream bombing would leak *so many* details to an 85 year old unaffiliated reporter. It's so well told with pieces of information from the on-the-ground execution and the command level decisions that the number of people who could've leaked this can't be that large... so why on earth would some one leak this knowing it would be likely he or she would be identified as the leak?
posted by midmarch snowman at 11:40 AM on February 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Previous speculation on the cause of the damage.
posted by Mitheral at 11:41 AM on February 8, 2023

Well, this is either the biggest scoop in a generation which will result in the largest diplomatic crisis between the US and Europe since WWII, or an old man got conned.
posted by gwint at 11:54 AM on February 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

This is weird, supposedly a direct quote from the source:

All they had to do now is just do it—but it still had to be secret. The Russians have superlative surveillance of the Baltic Sea.

If the point of this is to turn Germany and others against Russia, it's not Russia that they'd be worried about finding out, it's Germany and Denmark and the rest of the EU.
posted by echo target at 11:56 AM on February 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Midmarch Snowman raises some good point. To me it sounds like a great strategy to keep people talking about something other than what actually happened (or is currently happening and hoped not to be seen).

Less ungenerously: it will be interesting to hear if Hersh is ever interviewed and corroborates his authorship.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 12:13 PM on February 8, 2023

"Anyway, kudos to hersh for finding and vetting his singluar source with first-hand knowledge of all these meetings at CIA and the situation room and Biden's natsec briefings and inside diverse govt dept leadership meetings and the Norwegian navy. What a career they must have had"
posted by NotMyselfRightNow at 12:14 PM on February 8, 2023 [15 favorites]

This post made me lean more towards a belief that Russia probably did it, because of how remarkably convenient it is for the US to get blamed by conspiracy-addled commentators.
posted by allegedly at 12:15 PM on February 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'm only surprised by two aspects here:

Firstly we've such a diversity of fancy espionage toys, with which the U.S. spies upon German chancellors, etc, so how does the U.S. CIA/Navy not just have on-hand weapons for doing almost exactly this? How did this operation require so much complexity?

Second, we know Norway is a U.S. lap dog, but still why involve Norway? Is there some political benefit? It'll be interesting if the source turns out to be Norwegian, but then all the internal US. stuff would become rumors they heard second hand, and less authoritative.

America has motive and ability. Ukraine had only motive. Who else had either? Russia could just close the valve, no?
posted by jeffburdges at 12:18 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

If the attack were traceable to the United States, “It’s an act of war.”

Even leaving aside that, if true, it would be an unprovoked act of war that could potentially trigger a nuclear response, hundreds of bureaucrats in several countries (not least the United States, Germany, and Norway) would need to keep their activities secret from other countries and from press outlets, in order to keep this operation covert this long. To the extent that Russia already attacks Europe on an ongoing basis through funding and logistical support to political parties, I feel like this article is Qanon-level conspiracy thinking that is an extension of that larger informational war, and I'm surprised to see it posted here.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:18 PM on February 8, 2023 [12 favorites]

I feel like the only people who will believe this, especially without stronger sourcing, are the people who are already motivated to take a pro-Russia, or at minimum kneejerk anti-US, position.

jeffburdges, aren't you surprised by the complexity and efficiency of the proposed conspiracy? That's the part that surprises me the most.
posted by sagc at 12:24 PM on February 8, 2023 [4 favorites]

I feel like the only people who will believe this, especially without stronger sourcing, are the people who are already motivated to take a pro-Russia, or at minimum kneejerk anti-US, position.

I can tell that from at least one of the favorites on this post.....
posted by lalochezia at 12:32 PM on February 8, 2023

If Bellingcat had said this, it would be one thing. But Hersh? They guy never met an anonymous source he didn't immediately believe, and it's not the first time he's been provably conned (cf. the Cusack case, for one).
posted by aramaic at 12:37 PM on February 8, 2023

That whole Twitter thread that NotMyselfRightNow posted is worth a look, there are a great many reasons the idea is kind of ridiculous.
posted by echo target at 12:37 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

I can't take it anymore...

I'm the source.

OK? Everyone happy now?

You've got me.

/anything is possible
posted by zerobyproxy at 12:59 PM on February 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

Matt Taibbi says he discussed this article with Sy Hersh
(no confirmation about sources, but the substack is legit, which makes sense)
posted by jeffburdges at 1:03 PM on February 8, 2023

I have no idea if the article's attribution of the destruction of the pipelines is correct. What I don't get at all though, is the argument that Russia may have done it themselves. Given the leverage and cash that could accrue to Russia from being able to turn the taps back on, had the pipes remained usable, what would the up-side to the Russians be for sabotaging the pipelines themselves?
posted by Gratishades at 1:03 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

It's roughly the story "everyone knew anyways" of course

is it though?
posted by Dr. Twist at 1:07 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

Matt Taibbi says he discussed this article with Sy Hersh

ok for me that's not helping
posted by away for regrooving at 1:12 PM on February 8, 2023 [22 favorites]

Also when people use bona fides from 30+years ago like

(from Seymour Hersh, who won the Pulitzer for uncovering the My Lai Massacre in Vietnam, and also broke stories on Watergate and Abu Ghraib)

I'm reminded of Linus Pauling, who was one of only 5 people in history to win TWO nobel prizes.

A giant of the 20th century, founder of the understanding of molecular bonding that we still use today, bestrode biochemistry like a colossus, easily one of the greatest chemists that ever lived, hell probably one of the greatest scientists who ever lived.

He spent his last decade saying that Vitamin C and lysine would cure everything including cancer.

People can be reliable, geniuses, great-sources.... until they aren't.
posted by lalochezia at 1:12 PM on February 8, 2023 [18 favorites]

well, if we don't believe the u s did it, and we don't believe russia did it, and eco activists almost certainly aren't capable of doing it, who's left?
posted by pyramid termite at 1:16 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

What I don't get at all though, is the argument that Russia may have done it themselves. Given the leverage and cash that could accrue to Russia from being able to turn the taps back on, had the pipes remained usable, what would the up-side to the Russians be for sabotaging the pipelines themselves?

We discussed that back when it happened. But whatever: it was a mobster-style threat, mainly to Norway who was at that point just ready with their own pipeline to Germany. The Russians were basically proving that they could attack vital infrastructure within Danish and Swedish sea territory without anyone noticing. At the time, it was already pretty obvious that there is never going to be any gas going through the Nordsee pipe ever again. Even if there is a peace within a year or so, which we don't know, this whole war has boosted the transition towards renewables and a common European grid immensely.

Though the threat was primarily directed at Norway, who has a border with Russia in the North, it was also intended to intimidate and keenly felt throughout the nations that surround the Baltic Sea. Though I'm happy and proud to say no one was intimidated.
posted by mumimor at 1:18 PM on February 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

well, if we don't believe the u s did it, and we don't believe russia did it, and eco activists almost certainly aren't capable of doing it, who's left?

Angry Dolphins... or possibly Aquaman
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:22 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

If it's actually plausible to do with divers, lots and lots of interests could have in the basic sense; including private ones.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:32 PM on February 8, 2023

Biden keeps promises: “If Russia invades...then there will no longer be a Nord Stream. We will bring an end to it."

Also, fits the threat theory way more sensibly than Russia. America does not risk war here either, just anti-American sentiment in Europe. Biden told the Germans to stop buying Russian gas, but they kept buying. America did ensure they'd LNG to buy.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:35 PM on February 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Angry Dolphins... or possibly Aquaman

Fucking DC characters, so much worse than the real good guys at Marvel.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:35 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

Thanks mumimor for your answer, it does provide a plausible rationale that I hadn't considered. From my own imperfect and superficial understanding it seemed like Russia would have been cutting off their nose to spite their face as I thought at the time that Putin thought the West would fold if their public had to pay much higher prices for energy. It seemed to close off the option of "stop supporting Ukraine and the carbon will flow again". It may well be your analysis is correct and that Russia and the Western states believed that a Rubicon had been crossed, and that Russia felt that they had nothing to lose. Will be interesting to see more info, as and when it appears, as to how it all came about.
posted by Gratishades at 1:36 PM on February 8, 2023

jeffburdges, do you just post whatever link you see that supports your point? That person is on Gab and Truth Social, counts themselves as "America First"(?), thinks Hunter Biden is equivalent to R. Kelly, thinks that the election was stolen, etc. If that's the news environment you're moving in, what on earth are you doing here?

(The video is from Feb. 7 and is available on the ABC, CSpan, etc. twitter accounts. Doesn't exactly seem like a smoking gun, though!)
posted by sagc at 1:39 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

This seems like a plant: a false flag. Something to make the American spy/military complex seem more competent than it actually is.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 1:43 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

It doesn't feel entirely implausible but it states so much without verification that it's hard to take a face value as is.

That's Hersh's current modus operandi.

It's so well told

He's a very good storyteller, that's for sure
posted by chavenet at 1:45 PM on February 8, 2023

Biden says the Nord Stream 2 pipeline won't move ahead if Russia invades Ukraine

Biden said a Russian invasion would be a "gigantic mistake," saying, "We will impose the most severe sanctions ever imposed."

Or it could have been a hint that he was about to engage in an elaborate, complicated and risky sabotage scheme, who knows.
posted by Artw at 1:46 PM on February 8, 2023 [4 favorites]

This is completely unsubstantiated and feels like conspiracy theory looking for a home. I'm all for discussion of who did this (my personal opinion is that it was Russia but I'm not aware of any public evidence that is substantive at all), and I'm with the people asking why, if this was real, it isn't being published somewhere real?
posted by Dip Flash at 2:05 PM on February 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

There is another article which purports to explain Why Substack?, but it doesn't exactly address the lack of fact checking, his abysmal track record over the last 10-15 years, or why, exactly, we should trust him on this one. He is very happy that nobody can stop him publishing, though!
posted by sagc at 2:08 PM on February 8, 2023

Matt Taibbi says he discussed this article with Sy Hersh

When’s Glenn Greenwald going to chip in?
posted by Artw at 2:15 PM on February 8, 2023 [6 favorites]