Empire Strikes Back
May 4, 2023 3:21 AM   Subscribe

Republican States Are Racing Toward Authoritarianism [ungated] - "Regardless of how Abbott proceeds, the governor's urge to pardon a killer for no discernible reason other than that the killer belongs to Team Red and the victim is claimed by Team Blue tells us how deep into the authoritarian jungle the Republican Party has penetrated."
The relentless attacks on a tiny subpopulation are consistent with GOP bans on literature and history books on the grounds that whatever induces discomfort in the most sensitive Republican should be legally suppressed. Writing in a journal article on the advance of GOP authoritarianism, University at Buffalo School of Law professor James Gardner said: “To insult or demonize another person is, literally, depersonalizing — it proceeds by definition from the view that the insulted are not fully human, and thus need not be treated with the decency to which humans are inherently entitled.”[1]

It's a short and well-traveled leap of logic from concluding that transgender Americans lack legitimate autonomy or full political rights to concluding the same about non-Whites, non-Christians and non-Republicans.

American democracy has been under attack from authoritarian forces in the Republican Party for most of this century. But as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and other GOP officials have ratcheted up the use of state power to suppress political opposition and force academic, civic and corporate actors to genuflect at the GOP altar, democratic space in red states has been shrinking at a rapid pace. To mobilize conservatives, Republicans generate fears about everything from drag shows to Disney World. Once such threats are identified, they must be neutralized.

For those living under emerging authoritarian state regimes, the past may offer uncomfortable guidance. Opposed to equal rights, contemptuous of rule of law, state governments in Florida, Texas and elsewhere are growing reminiscent of the 20th century apartheid regimes of the American South. (It’s no coincidence that authoritarianism’s return is most aggressive in the South.) These former and future “authoritarian enclaves”[2,3] are breaking free of democratic constraints, determined to exert power over citizens who reject their political and cultural dictates.
also btw... What the future holds for democracy in the U.S. - "Elected autocrats - almost always, the first thing that they do, the first thing they try to do is capture the referee, is place loyalists in the courts, in the attorney general's office, the prosecutor's office, in the electoral authorities, in the intelligence agencies, in all the places that allow the law to be used as a partisan weapon both to protect the government from the investigation and to investigate and punish rivals."
We became a multiracial democracy on paper in 1965, but we will not be a truly multiracial democracy until individuals of every ethnic group get treated equally by the state. We've made enormous progress in that direction. We're becoming a much more diverse and more racially egalitarian society.

It's precisely that movement towards multiracial democracy that Trumpism is pushing back against. But I think we're going to get there because the multiracial Democratic coalition in this country is a majority, it is growing and it's particularly pronounced among younger generations.[7,8]
Where Does American Democracy Go From Here? [ungated] - "Republicans will not reform themselves until they take a series of electoral defeats, major electoral defeats..."
posted by kliuless (72 comments total) 56 users marked this as a favorite
 
The rule of thumb for any headline with a question is that the answer is no, but looking at things from outside, I think it's obvious that yes Republicans have turned the corner towards authoritarianism. This isn't going to affect transplants, because the people moving to Florida and Texas broadly think that the socially conservative policies won't negatively affect them, and because they believe that American democracy is robust to all threats despite the mounting evidence that it is not.
posted by plonkee at 3:29 AM on May 4, 2023 [8 favorites]


One glimmer of hope -

Y'all, it's the Wall Street Journal in that first link. And if the Wall Street Journal is saying, "Look out, the GOP looks like it's turning authoritarian," that sounds like more people are getting worried about the path we're on.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:37 AM on May 4, 2023 [5 favorites]


bloomberg fwiw...
posted by kliuless at 3:45 AM on May 4, 2023 [3 favorites]


Whoops, yeah, it's not the WSJ it's Bloomberg. Not quite as center-trending-right, but still.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:47 AM on May 4, 2023 [5 favorites]


The story yesterday that students scored lowest ever on a national civics & history test hardly surprised me: Republicans politicized the topic so thoroughly over the past few years that it can't be taught or learned anymore.
posted by wenestvedt at 4:08 AM on May 4, 2023 [12 favorites]


I have seen it said before that this is the last gasp of Republicans before the population of Gen Z voters begins to outweigh the population of Boomer voters. Gen Z leans heavily to the left. I know that young voters historically aren't very motivated, but that began to change in the last midterms, and Gen Z are much more aware and active.

I am trying to hold on to hope that the demographic shift will start to pull us back from the abyss.
posted by Fleebnork at 4:14 AM on May 4, 2023 [29 favorites]


I don’t think they’re going to go quietly or without spilling blood. If the poles were reversed, maybe, but for their side there isn’t even a Canada or Scandinavia to flee to. Places someone with their lifelong privilege would want to live that they find politically agreeable. The US is basically it for developed conservative atavism.

It’s existential for them, and more to the point all the macho posturing bullshit of “hard men, hard decisions” pushes them even further in that direction. Whether that posturing reflects a genuine belief or a genuinely-need-to-be-seen-as-believing is immaterial.

This spasm of stochastic violence/domestic terrorism over the past few weeks feels more like a tiny preview of what’s to come, and the moment I’m quietly dreading is when the cops stop cleaning it up and just openly join in.

Sorry for the DOOM, I talk to a lot more conservatives than I believe is typical of Metafilter. My large, evangelical fundamentalist extended family and their friends are - very suddenly and all simultaneously - in the process of moving out of rural upstate New York for more conservative states (mostly TN, couple to farm country PA, one FL), and these are nearly all #NeverTrump religious conservatives, not even the Q-rabid. I don’t know how to process that information in a way that isn’t pretty grim.
posted by Ryvar at 4:50 AM on May 4, 2023 [32 favorites]


Republicans have won the popular vote for president exactly once this century (and Bush the Lesser arguably doesn't count, as he wouldn't have run for re-election if he hadn't been installed by a partisan Supreme Court*). The are intensely afraid of democracy, because in fair, competitive elections, they are quite likely to lose.

But the Founders distrusted authoritarian rule, because tyranny is not only poisonous to individual rights, but also, inevitably, inefficient and corrupt. We need only look at the Republicans' authoritarian models in Russia and Hungary to see that these suspicions remain valid to this day.

But aside from the demographic crisis of a younger, more diverse voting population, Republicans also have the problem that they can't appeal to a rabid base of hate junkies and also to moderate voters in the suburbs who can be persuaded to look the other way for sweet, sweet tax cuts. They have completely abandoned persuading voters, preferring instead to select their voters instead of the other way around, relying on John Roberts to have their back in undermining democracy. But Roberts knows that much of SCOTUS' power comes from the perception of legitimacy, and if the public realizes how corrupt and partisan the court is and has been, the jig is up.

Even the media, which generally can be counted on to give cover to the Republicans, is realizing that their interests aren't served by one-party rule presided over by thugs who beat up their reporters and brag about it, like in Montana.

These power grabs are not a sign of strength, but the desperate product of weakness in a minority party that refuses to acknowledge any opposition as legitimate at all. The question is, are most Americans committed enough to the concept of democracy to recognize the threat?

*The fact that the so-called "liberal media" pretended Bush v Gore wasn't an obviously partisan decision goes a long way toward explaining our current crisis. It also showed the Republicans have been cheating for a lot longer than the MAGA movement existed.
posted by Gelatin at 5:17 AM on May 4, 2023 [36 favorites]


Please poke holes in this argument. I aver that pushing hard for stupid culture war stuff, so hard that those with the means to do so will leave that jurisdiction/state for a more tolerant state to live, work and raise their children just makes those authoritarian states more powerful. If you can get a lock on the senators sent to DC and those sweet electoral college votes, you control the most visible seat of power, the judiciary, and so much more. “If you don’t like it, leave.” Folks moving to those states for the authoritarianism (we love our guns and Republican Jesus) further deepen the divide. Extremism works in this country.
posted by amanda at 6:05 AM on May 4, 2023 [4 favorites]


The thing I don't like about the "last desperate act" narrative is it gives people a bit of permission to just sit down and wait. That's now how you win, it's how you lose.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:11 AM on May 4, 2023 [31 favorites]


it's mostly been the reactionaries who have been pushing culture war stuff. if the other side started pushing back more, maybe the reactionaries would moderate their tone after experiencing consequences. there's a lot of levers to pull. pornhub just blocked Utah for their age verification legislation, and you know there's going to be a lot of mormons upset about that
posted by logicpunk at 6:13 AM on May 4, 2023 [4 favorites]


One more data point: Florida Gov. DeSantis and his quislings in the state legislature yesterday enacted what open government experts see as a dangerous gutting of the state's once-vaunted open records laws. Now the public will have no access to records of how and where the governor travels, or whom he meets with.

Pretty nice deal for a presidential candidate grubbing for money with evil scumbags.
posted by martin q blank at 6:18 AM on May 4, 2023 [21 favorites]


The thing I don't like about the "last desperate act" narrative is it gives people a bit of permission to just sit down and wait.

On the other hand, the "last chance to save democracy" narrative gives people a bit of permission to say "I can't possibly contribute anything meaningful, so I guess I'll just sit down and wait." Some people -- a lot of people, hell, maybe even most people -- are going to take any excuse to do what they were going to do anyway, and that's mostly sitting down and waiting.
posted by Etrigan at 6:23 AM on May 4, 2023 [3 favorites]


also: bonus points to kliuless for the post and its title, on this particular date.
posted by martin q blank at 6:36 AM on May 4, 2023 [23 favorites]


Even if voted out at the next opportunity, these state-level Republicans have already and will have 2-3 more yrs to put their desired laws into place and become established as 'normal.' While the courts may hold off some of the worst in some areas, the incoming electees will hopefully be as organized as the 2022 Republicans were in having desired actions to hand and moving quickly despite any public protest. And because some of these new laws are now in the state constitution, removal may not be as easy as enactment was. 2022 was truly a tipping point in learning how fast things can fall.

Voting matters.
posted by beaning at 6:39 AM on May 4, 2023 [5 favorites]


I am trying to hold on to hope that the demographic shift will start to pull us back from the abyss.

People have been saying this for, literally, decades.

Also, doesn't matter how hard you vote if your state legislature is gerrymandered all to hell and the authoritarian legislature has stripped all meaningful powers from the ungerrymanderable statewide races.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:43 AM on May 4, 2023 [29 favorites]


Everything about the United States of America these days scares the shit out of me.

> But Roberts knows that much of SCOTUS' power comes from the perception of legitimacy, and if the public realizes how corrupt and partisan the court is and has been, the jig is up.

I've read a number of variations on this theme, and honest question; what's the "jig" in this scenario? The power of the SCOTUS isn't tied to public approval ratings, and Roberts is a partisan hatchet man with a job to do, one he's doing very well thus far. He doesn't care what the public thinks, or if the sort of history books Republicans are doing their best to ensure will never exist will condemn him as the Chief Justice who oversaw the Court's transition to the judicial wing of an American Nazi party.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:49 AM on May 4, 2023 [5 favorites]


Please poke holes in this argument. I aver that pushing hard for stupid culture war stuff, so hard that those with the means to do so will leave that jurisdiction/state for a more tolerant state to live, work and raise their children just makes those authoritarian states more powerful. If you can get a lock on the senators sent to DC and those sweet electoral college votes, you control the most visible seat of power, the judiciary, and so much more.

Well, maybe, but there's a considerable body of evidence that the Republican Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade cost the Republicans the Senate in 2022, and left them with the slimmest of House majorities. And despite please from so-called "establishment" Republicans (those who would prefer to establish one-party rule quietly), Republicans have doubled down on their forced birth stance, passing ever more extreme laws all the time.

Yes, they're using their power to impose laws that are unpopular even among Republican voters. But they either perceive they have to, to appease their evangelical base, or because gerrymandered districts naturally produce more and more extreme candidates and the current crop of Republican lawmakers believe what they see on Fox News.

Democrats and even the so-called "liberal media" may have woken up to the threat a little late, but they have. Saving democracy will be a struggle, but the fact that the Republicans don't believe in it can't help their appeal to moderates.
posted by Gelatin at 6:51 AM on May 4, 2023 [4 favorites]


I am of the opinion that Team Blue people in red states should flee immediately, while they still can. There is no plausible scenario where Team Blue can vote its way to get from Point A (here, Hell), to Point B (a state of relative-Reasonableness, where rights recently revoked are restored) in the red states that are rolling the tide of fascism at an accelerating pace. These people will. not. stop. They do *not* deal in good faith, and they don't care about being Reasonable or fair or belief in the rule of law or *anything* that would get in their way.

Leave. Now.

Voting is great and all, and the tide of the Gen Z's coming online is a lovely thought, but with Collapse beating down the door and accelerating by the day, you are *not* going to be able to vote out these authoritarian fascists in time to improve the situation. Your safety is at risk, whether you realize it now or not.

But I sound like Cassandra, and nobody listens to me. I'm a catastrophizer and an early-panicker, a ripcord-puller and an ejection-seat-handle-yanker. But I urge people to get to safety while they still have time to liquidate some possessions to afford their relocation to a blue state while the economy is still functioning, load up their vehicle, and GTFO.
posted by cats are weird at 6:52 AM on May 4, 2023 [20 favorites]


I've read a number of variations on this theme, and honest question; what's the "jig" in this scenario? The power of the SCOTUS isn't tied to public approval ratings

No, it's tied to the perception that SCOTUS has any authority at all, and the Executive and Legislative branches defer to them.

Though I predict that open defiance of the Court won't come from Democrats, but rather from deeply extremist Republicans refusing to recognize a ruling that goes against their bigotry and authoritarianism.
posted by Gelatin at 6:55 AM on May 4, 2023 [9 favorites]


"Regardless of how Abbott proceeds, the governor's urge to pardon a killer for no discernible reason other than that the killer belongs to Team Red and the victim is claimed by Team Blue tells us how deep into the authoritarian jungle the Republican Party has penetrated."

FWIW New York’s mayor and governor are currently stumbling their way towards exonerating a vigilante for executing a mentally ill man on the subway, so the instinct is not fully constrained to republicans.
posted by Artw at 6:56 AM on May 4, 2023 [15 favorites]


The problem with fleeing, cats are weird, is that not everyone can afford to and many of those of us who CAN afford to are very concerned about leaving the ones who can't behind entirely undefended.

Also it's important to keep in mind that many so called "red states" are actually somewhere in between a 55% red / 45% blue or 60% red / 40% blue split. Where are 40- 45% of the population of red states going to go? I mean literally: what blue state actually physically has enough houses to house the "blue" population of even one neighboring red state? What would Illinois do if the 44% of the population of Missouri who did NOT vote for Donald Trump in 2020 showed up there tomorrow? That's almost three million people. Imagine three million refugees from Kansas City and St. Louis and Columbia showing up in Chicago looking for a place to stay.
posted by BlueJae at 7:12 AM on May 4, 2023 [34 favorites]


Obviously not every single person can flee right now. But if you go now, you can do it in an orderly fashion and beat the rush, before the civil war gets hot.

I foresee bad things. What would people do if they had been warned before the Nazis really got rolling? That's the parallel I see in this historical moment, but of course it sounds like hysterical hyperbole to average people who think the status quo will hold for the next ten years. I know I sound that way, but I call things like I see 'em. GRAVE, IMMINENT DANGER.

But again, I'm a Doomer's Doomer, so I see the world through Collapse-colored glasses every day, at all times. Drawing attention to economic concerns is all well and good, but I think danger to people's very *lives* is at stake here. What does money matter if you get murdered? It's not like you can spend it when you're dead.

I will stop here and not hammer on this further, but maybe at least one person will hear my warning and get concerned enough to get themselves to safety in time. I don't know.
posted by cats are weird at 7:20 AM on May 4, 2023 [7 favorites]


What would Illinois do if the 44% of the population of Missouri who did NOT vote for Donald Trump in 2020 showed up there tomorrow?

I was about to post just that.

I hate it that the Missouri state government affords more rights to guns than to humans, and is trying to legislate away trans people. But I live in a blue county. I like my home, and it's almost fully paid for. The other places I've been to where I'd theoretically want to live are either FAR more expensive, or have worse politics than here.

Me running to another state will not stop the MO republicans from being awful to everyone who doesn't have the privilege of being able to leave, and it will not improve my situation personally.

I haven't lived in Florida since 1996, and none of my family have lived there for the past 15 years. But Ron DeSantis still manages to piss me off multiple times per week and I still think he needs to be dropkicked into the sun.
posted by Foosnark at 7:23 AM on May 4, 2023 [13 favorites]


It's not that I don't believe people like me are in serious danger in states like mine, cars are weird. It's that I don't want to look for a solution that saves a few of us. I want to look for one that saves ALL OF US.
posted by BlueJae at 7:27 AM on May 4, 2023 [12 favorites]


Also it's important to keep in mind that many so called "red states" are actually somewhere in between a 55% red / 45% blue or 60% red / 40% blue split.

Which is why gerrymandering, and the partisan SCOTUS of tolerance of same, is so poisonous to democracy. In Wisconsin, Republicans have gerrymandered themselves into the positions where Democrats can routinely win the majority of votes and still have fewer seats in the legislature. And creating "safe Republican seats" mean the primary is the real election, and so the candidate who appeals the best to the extremist base is likely to prevail.

If the Republicans actually had to persuade voters -- they'd be hosed, because their "transfer the other half of the nation's wealth to the top 1%" policy isn't popular, but they'd also be forced to moderate their positions.
posted by Gelatin at 7:30 AM on May 4, 2023 [11 favorites]


>”It also showed the Republicans have been cheating for a lot longer than the MAGA movement existed.”

Last month we got a firsthand, credible witness that Reagan colluded with Iran to withhold freeing the hostages to throw the 1980 election and it was in the news cycle for, like, a day? Two days?

Republicans cheating is now dog-bites-man levels of scandal and average Americans still don’t care
posted by Skwirl at 7:32 AM on May 4, 2023 [19 favorites]


> I know that young voters historically aren't very motivated, but that began to change in the last midterms, and Gen Z are much more aware and active.

America's youth fears for the future - "Why it matters: Those fears are mobilizing young people to vote in near-record numbers, says John Della Volpe, director of polling at the institute."
  • Case in point: The 2022 midterms saw the second-highest turnout among voters under 30 (27%) in at least the last three decades, NPR notes.
"It's a critical voting bloc," Della Volpe says.
  • And it continues to tilt the scales in favor of Democratic candidates — whom young people overwhelmingly support.
  • Young voters' influence "enabled the Democrats to win almost every battleground statewide contest and increase their majority in the U.S. Senate," Brookings Institution analysts write.
[...]

What to watch: The Institute of Politics has tracked striking shifts in young Americans' views on government over the last decade.
  • In 2013, 35% felt that the government should spend money to reduce poverty. Today, 59% do.
  • 29% said the government should act to mitigate climate change — even at the expense of economic growth — in 2013. Today, 50% believe the government should take action.
The bottom line: This is a generation that feels besieged, says Della Volpe. And their fear will likely become more and more relevant in politics.
posted by kliuless at 7:49 AM on May 4, 2023 [21 favorites]


Yeah, as someone in the process of leaving a terrible state, I don't think yelling doom and gloom helps all that much. Personally, once I get the hell out of here and get settled, I want to join up with others trying to help.

Where are the groups identifying safe and affordable housing in blue states? Offering backyards, spare bedrooms, couches, church basements? Who is helping people pay to break a lease or put a deposit on a new apartment? Is your church or friend group on the look out for people new to the area who need a new community? Are you ready to teach southerners how to drive in snow or help us buy snow tires?

If you're anxious and in a blue state how can you materially help?
posted by Is It Over Yet? at 7:49 AM on May 4, 2023 [8 favorites]


FWIW New York’s mayor and governor are currently stumbling their way towards exonerating a vigilante for executing a mentally ill man on the subway, so the instinct is not fully constrained to republicans.

This entire unfolding event has honestly chilled me more than anything else that's happened in the past few years. A subway rider CHOKED A MAN TO DEATH AND IT TOOK FIFTEEN MINUTES and no one did a thing, and now both the mayor and the governor are like "well yeah but he was a subaltern so whaddya gonna do, dude shouldn't have been making people slightly uncomfortable" and folks idk
posted by rhymedirective at 7:57 AM on May 4, 2023 [15 favorites]


Also when I say there are people who can't afford to flee red states, I mean there are people who literally can't afford to pay for the basic things that would enable them to safely flee, things like, the gas money to drive to another state, a motel or a campground spot to stay in once they get there, etc. And if anyone is suggesting these people should leave on foot with whatever they can carry in a bag, and walk until they arrive with no money, no home, and no prospects in a blue city in a blue state where the cops nevertheless arrest people for sleeping on park benches, well, people aren't going to do that en masse until the risks of taking a journey like that weigh less in their minds than the risks of staying in a place where the government is going very bad but they have do still have food on their plate and a roof over their heads.

If blue state dwellers want to make it easy for people who are in danger in states like mine to leave states like mine, for the literal love of humanity, stop just warning of the danger we're in and start offering to open your homes to the people who are most at a risk but least able to leave. Start offering to send people money for gas or bus tickets. Start offering to help get them permanent housing and a job in a safer city.

Or, start donating to or phonebanking for decent candidates running for state legislature or statewide office in red states. The GOP and their wealthy pro-authoritarian donors dump tons of money into these state and local level races which is partly how they maintain such a stranglehold on states where the Republican voter majority margin isn't actually that wide.
posted by BlueJae at 7:58 AM on May 4, 2023 [18 favorites]


America's youth fears for the future - "Why it matters: Those fears are mobilizing young people to vote in near-record numbers, says John Della Volpe, director of polling at the institute."

Thanks for this article. I much prefer this to all of the doomsaying.

I don't have the luxury of fleeing to a blue state. My ex-wife has custody of my son, and I can't and won't leave him behind.

Furthermore, GA is a "purple" state that can, with some more hard work, flip blue in the coming years. Giving up and running away undermines the hard work that many people are doing here.
posted by Fleebnork at 7:58 AM on May 4, 2023 [25 favorites]


Extinction bursts of political violence and extremism, as in domestic violence, occur because they sometimes work; and can be quite dangerous even if they don’t ultimately result in retention of power. So it’s important to be aware of the very real risks, and also to fight back hard. But at the same time it’s both important and quite reasonable to maintain hope, because extinction bursts also sometimes fail - they occur during times of change and upheaval, where the eventual outcome is very much up in the air, which is cause for both danger and hope, simultaneously.
posted by eviemath at 8:00 AM on May 4, 2023 [9 favorites]


Florida's legislature features Democratic and Republican dancing in the aisles alike so I don't fucking know anymore.

Like I get that Democratic governance doesn't get us everything we want but can we avoid the optics of DANCING WITH THE FUCKING FASCISTS?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:08 AM on May 4, 2023 [11 favorites]


Also when I say there are people who can't afford to flee red states, I mean there are people who literally can't afford to pay for the basic things that would enable them to safely flee, things like, the gas money to drive to another state, a motel or a campground spot to stay in once they get there, etc.

Also, we Americans should never abandon our fellow citizens to the tender mercies of Republican tyranny.
posted by Gelatin at 8:13 AM on May 4, 2023 [11 favorites]


I'm a Doomer's Doomer, so I see the world through Collapse-colored glasses every day, at all times.

I suppose the advantage of this perspective is that, eventually, at least one time, you'll probably be right. But the disadvantage is all of the imminent panic, fear, anxiety of living with a 'maybe' as if it's a certainty. I can't predict the future better than anyone else (which is to say, not at all), but I do know that--to the degree that I can influence it--I want my each of my remaining days to have at least some joy and peace in them, even just a few minutes, especially since we're all rushing down a river none of us can control. And holding a doomsday perspective in my mind constantly would mean that I never get that, not on any day.

Also, we Americans should never abandon our fellow citizens to the tender mercies of Republican tyranny.

Also this. We live in a nation, and the Civil War was fought because of the principle that preserving the Union is of foundational value and utmost importance, not least to protect all U.S. residents, even those who lived in slave states (by choice or by enslavement). Also, as pointed out above, if red states collapse and refugees start fleeing, blue cities/states will soon collapse under the burden of receiving (or blocking) that flow of internal refugees. The U.S. is an 'us,' like it or not, no matter how hard Republicans try to convince us otherwise, and we will sink or swim together.

Last month we got a firsthand, credible witness that Reagan colluded with Iran to withhold freeing the hostages to throw the 1980 election and it was in the news cycle for, like, a day? Two days?

I don't intend to be cynical, but "we" have known that Reagan did this (and that Bush Sr. likely brokered it) for several decades already. Those old enough to be interested probably already knew, and those too young to remember have a whole lot of other contemporary fuckery to deal with.
posted by LooseFilter at 8:22 AM on May 4, 2023 [12 favorites]


The question is, are most Americans committed enough to the concept of democracy to recognize the threat?

I believe the answer to this question is no. 70 million people saw how Donald Trump spent four years trying to rule America rather than lead it, and voted for him to continue.

That doesn't mean giving up, though. Far from it. But what it does mean is we must stop fighting as though modern American "conservatism" is a legitimate ideology.

At all cost, from the top level of the nation to our families, I believe we must stop allowing them to consider their beliefs are legitimate. Ask them why they pretend to be stupid. Force them to confront that their actions are either stupid or evil, and there is no third option.

I know not everyone is in a position of privilege where they can do this, but for those of us who can I believe the responsibility is clear: ostracism and ridicule in our friend groups and families. Ostracism (polite, if necessary, but real nonetheless) in our workplaces. Take back the mantle of patriotism and declare MAGA/Q/Anti-Democracy folks traitors. At every opportunity.

We have to treat this challenge as the cultural war they've been fighting. Procedure and decorum are going to become democracy's maginot line, and we need to push back in like terms.

Calling them fascists is all fine and good, but they enjoy pretending it doesn't apply to them because it's vague. Calling them traitors, calling them immoral, calling them faithless to their professed beliefs, not just to their faces, but before people whose opinions they care about -- that is necessary.

I've already explicitly cut off a treasonous family member who explicitly supported the coup attempt and have quietly distanced myself from another who never quite condemned it. We cannot allow them the illusion of ideological legitimacy any longer.
posted by tclark at 8:37 AM on May 4, 2023 [19 favorites]


I am of the opinion that Team Blue people in red states should flee immediately, while they still can.

This is craziness, and insulting. Why would we run like cowards from our home? You are advocating for the authoritarians to win?

Southerners fought the confederacy, and for the Union, in 1860's, and won. Why would we turn tail now?

When the Union abandoned Reconstruction,
and the KKK rose, southerners did move North, it was the Great Migration, and Northerners did not universally welcome the displaced, especially Black southerners. Northerners also bombed and lynched Black displaced people. Again, the Union allowed the KKK to rise. Your stopped fighting. There was a massive depopulation of Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida that remains a heavy burden on us today. It happened again in the 50's.

The actual history of internal displacement of citizens and freedmen (and women) from "red" states is a woeful history you are foolish to glibly invoke, just because the fascists have tricked you into being a coward.

Furthermore, it is a failed "solution."

We know what it takes to win. The US Army sailed up the Mississippi River and onto the plantations. Those plantations still exist, they just have signs that say "Exxon" and "Dow" now. Those are "Blue state" companies. Figure that out.

DJT and MAGA come from New York. Reagan came from California. Figure your own shit out, please, "Team Blue".

We celebrate Juneteenth, not because the US Army freed slaves, but because "Team Blue" finally grew a pair and joined us in the struggle, and took the fight into Texas.

Join us again, now. Texas is your future and you cannot run and cower from climate change.
posted by eustatic at 8:45 AM on May 4, 2023 [32 favorites]


I am of the opinion that Team Blue people in red states should flee immediately, while they still can.


California used to be a red state or at least a reddish-purple one. Things are not set in stone.
posted by octothorpe at 8:53 AM on May 4, 2023 [3 favorites]


I can see WA flipping with a sufficiently poor choice of governor candidate.

Durkan has already been raised as a possibility.
posted by Artw at 9:08 AM on May 4, 2023


I wonder how many people have no sense of place, or don't value it. The idea that every place is some identical little box we can unplug our lives from as needed, only to plug back into another one, is hyper-individualism gone wild. People grow up in communities. They have traditions. They have neighbors. They have family. Lots of smart, young, and often marginalized people get up and go to the big city to find themselves or work or less judgmental communities, but no one should *have* to do that. I grew up in a red state and I have parents and kids and a job and vacation spots and memories here. I have zero desire move to NYC or Portland or someplace where, spoiler alert, a lot of racists and a-holes still exist. So I wish we'd stop bringing that up in these threads. I guess the Ukrainians should just head to western Europe and just let the Russians take their homes too?

I woke up to this fun local news yesterday: Fast Moving North Carolina Abortion Bill Poised To Pass State Senate. But I'm not leaving, because fuck these people.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:11 AM on May 4, 2023 [18 favorites]


I believe the answer to this question is no. 70 million people saw how Donald Trump spent four years trying to rule America rather than lead it, and voted for him to continue.

70 million Americans are far from most of a nation of 330 million. There are more of us than there are of them. And the Republicans know it, otherwise they would be trying to encourage voting rather than suppress it.
posted by Gelatin at 9:33 AM on May 4, 2023 [7 favorites]


Alternately, there are a lot of people (like me) who don't have a strong sense of place, who will never think a patch of land is worth fighting for, even if some of the people on it still are. Sure I was born and raised in AZ, but a place isn't worth sacrificing my continued happiness, and my daughter's future safety to. There are a lot of people in this thread judging those of us who want to leave the red or even purple states. Please don't do that. I'm not judging you for staying. Even if I don't understand the sentiments for a place, the feelings you have tied up with them, I respect that you have them.

Please respect the fact that some of us just want to leave. And sure, if I can, I'll do whatever I can to convince the friends and family still remaining down here to follow me. I'll offer to let them stay with me, help them find housing and jobs, whatever it takes. But I've got a five-year-old girl, and there's no amount of "stay and fight" pep talks that can convince me it's worth risking her ability to get an abortion or even access to contraception in 8-10 years. To not be harassed or bullied if she's in any way not straight or cis.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 9:33 AM on May 4, 2023 [5 favorites]


70 million Americans are far from most of a nation of 330 million.

Yeah, and 80 million Americans saw how Donald Trump spent four years trying to rule America rather than lead it, and didn't vote at all to prevent him continuing.

I don't believe for a second that even half of those 80 million people's votes were suppressed by anything other than disinterest and apathy. That's still a tacit endorsement of Trump, in terms of "the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good [people] to do nothing."
posted by tclark at 9:45 AM on May 4, 2023 [6 favorites]


I've got a friend of let's say, "considerable", means who recently moved their entire family from a large liberal city to their home red state. I can totally understand people already living there not wanting or not able to leave, but that's a real head-scratcher for me personally, especially since they have a queer son.
posted by rhymedirective at 9:53 AM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]


Jesus wept.

As a transgender woman, I think fleeing a red state or even the country is a perfectly legitimate option, because unfortunately large portions of the government are trying to kill us. Maybe not directly yet, maybe not ever, but I don't think stating that they are passing laws for trans murder is the slightest bit hyperbole or even exaggerating.

And I'm all for Vote Harder, and local elections are super important, but nobody's ever explained to me how my vote for president has ever mattered in the slightest in Texas.
posted by Jacen at 9:56 AM on May 4, 2023 [23 favorites]


I left Texas last year, because its effect on my mental health had reached “I can leave Texas in a car or in a coffin and I choose car.” Being fully honest it was a pretty near thing.

Part of the problem I have with these threads is that I grew up on the other side and until I left for college was very firmly on the other side. And having a deep understanding of both, when people say “we have to stay and fight” or “The U.S. is an 'us,' like it or not” all I hear is a person desperate to avoid acknowledging they are trapped in an abusive relationship.

To be 100% clear about this: the other side does not want to reconcile and will never reconcile. The person I was 25 years ago wants the person I am today to die, as slowly and painfully as reasonably possible. What they want is not for us to be killed but to be Room 101 tortured into recanting and then killed.

It’s like a corollary to the “I don’t know how to explain to you that you should care about other people” meme: I don’t know how to explain to you that they never will. Eventually they are going to escalate their break with reality to such an extent that the federal government will have no choice but a military response. And then many of them will get themselves killed until the worst are gone and the more moderate or cowardly back down. The people suggesting others leave are doing so because they don’t want other Mefites getting caught in the middle of that. Hitting them with snark and accusations of cowardice/disloyalty/whatever is toxic behavior and I would like us to be better than that or at least be better at pretending we are better than that.
posted by Ryvar at 10:01 AM on May 4, 2023 [28 favorites]


I'm concerned that gerrymandering and the like will make it impossible for blue minorities in red states to get anywhere by "staying and fighting," and in the meantime things get worse for them as they stay. I have no way to address how to rescue 40+% of the population of each state, especially as the blue states are becoming a minority, especially the people who can't move. Hell if I know. I'm just lucky I got born in a blue state, and I admit it.

I agree with Ryvar. The other side wants weirdos dead. There's no reconciliation with that.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:04 AM on May 4, 2023 [7 favorites]


FWIW New York’s mayor and governor are currently stumbling their way towards exonerating a vigilante for executing a mentally ill man on the subway, so the instinct is not fully constrained to republicans.

Also FWIW, but here in NY people protested, and now the Governor has done a 180° and walked her previous statements back pretty hard.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 10:16 AM on May 4, 2023 [6 favorites]




I left Texas last year, because its effect on my mental health had reached “I can leave Texas in a car or in a coffin and I choose car.”

Fighting back is for people who have the privilege to do so. In practice, more true Americans leaving states run by confederates and traitors means that the confederates and traitors will have, incrementally, even tighter grips on those states, but someone must never be faulted for walking away while they can from a battle they believe they cannot win and would cost them their health or their lives.

If we're at the place that the people who must leave for their own health or sanity were the proverbial nail of the horse whose shoe was lost for want of that nail, then I hate to bring further gloom to the discussion but that war is lost, and let's not send people into the meat grinder just to make a point.
posted by tclark at 10:24 AM on May 4, 2023 [13 favorites]


Just a reminder that without the two hard-won Senate seats from Georgia, we have Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and a Senate that refuses to approve any Democratic nominations. If all of us who conceivably could choose to pack up and leave Georgia, the Senate is fucked.

Two ways to fix that problem: rewrite the Constitution so that the Senate isn't so fucked (good luck with that) or support the hell out of "purple" state voters instead of telling us to leave the people and places that we love.
posted by hydropsyche at 10:39 AM on May 4, 2023 [15 favorites]


I have a thought about the "people should stay in red states/people should flee red states" argument:

How about we each do what is best for each of us, and trust that other people are doing the same even if the thing they're doing is different from the thing we're doing?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:42 AM on May 4, 2023 [20 favorites]


Alternatively we could have a civil war about it.
posted by Ryvar at 10:49 AM on May 4, 2023 [2 favorites]


I have seen it said before that this is the last gasp of Republicans before the population of Gen Z voters begins to outweigh the population of Boomer voters. Gen Z leans heavily to the left. I know that young voters historically aren't very motivated, but that began to change in the last midterms, and Gen Z are much more aware and active.

I feel the problem with hoping for young voters to fix it, aside from the fact that younger voters always vote less than older voters, and they also get more conservative the older they get.

And if they don't, progress progresses, things that are super progressive when you're young just aren't seen as much to the younger/more progressive when you get older. And I think some of that is enough to move people to 'conservative' even if they didn't really change their mind.

Of course in contrario the Republicans are regressing hard & fast. I don't really understand how that doesn't move a lot of R voters to D, I guess it's all the cheating & bad faith communication.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:12 AM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]


NYT has an article about the one Montanan family that holds many leadership positions in Montana. They are of course running things according to “biblical” principals because apparently that’s who we are. American Taliban indeed.
posted by misterpatrick at 11:13 AM on May 4, 2023 [2 favorites]


Texas Republicans Pass Bill to Rig Elections in Their Favor

This is atrocious and obviously anti-democratic, but also a sign that even in Texas, Republicans know that their days of willing fair elections are nearing an end. Texas is basically very, very light blue state that doesn't vote/suppresses the vote, and the day is coming when that shows up in the voting booth. Trump got 52.1% of the vote in Texas in 2020. That's not insurmountable--and Abbott is growing more odious by the day. I don't fault anyone for leaving--I've had two trans friends escape to other states in recent years, for obvious reasons. But someday the GOP regime in Texas will fall, and when it does, it's going to stay fallen for a generation. Once Texans see that a Democrat can win, it's going to shift the dynamics tremendously. I suspect we'd already have a Democratic senator if it weren't for the influx of California Republicans. (In 2018, lifelong Texans voted for Beto O'Rourke 41-48%, while people who moved here backed Ted Cruz 57-42%. It's the out-of-state wing nuts that are keeping this regime propped up.)
posted by Pater Aletheias at 11:13 AM on May 4, 2023 [13 favorites]


Of course in contrario the Republicans are regressing hard & fast. I don't really understand how that doesn't move a lot of R voters to D, I guess it's all the cheating & bad faith communication.

Well. that Red Wave didn’t happen, and a lot of republicans are very panicy right now especially about their horrifically unpopular abortion stance. So it’s not like it *isn’t* happening, it’s just they are going to double down anyway and rely on cheating.
posted by Artw at 11:15 AM on May 4, 2023 [1 favorite]


It's a short and well-traveled leap of logic from concluding that transgender Americans lack legitimate autonomy or full political rights to concluding the same about non-Whites, non-Christians and non-Republicans.
Whoa, you mean when they finish up with the transes (and the gays, and the Black people, and the Jews, and ...), they are going to come after real people who really matter?
posted by eruonna at 12:38 PM on May 4, 2023


What would people do if they had been warned before the Nazis really got rolling?

well, for many, they weren't allowed to go anywhere because nobody would take them in

so they were stuck, their eyes upturned and watching as the axe fell

aside from that, kinda sucks that the "answer" many reach for is "give up your home, your heritage, your support network, your history, your livelihood and become one of the tired, poor, huddled masses who will on doubt be seen as invaders refugees"
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:40 PM on May 4, 2023 [8 favorites]


Also we're (knock on wood) not heading into a recession. So they won't really be able to run on the economy, so that's a good start. If they blow up the economy by getting the government to default and shutdown? That's been disastrous for them in the past.

And every week COVID reaps its grim (and disproportionately R) harvest. Which they literally can do nothing to stop, slow, or even acknowledge at this point as all three of those options are political suicide for republicans.

So as long as democrats don't pick absolute third rate consultant class dead weight nepo picks, things are looking okay, electorally.

My biggest concern is SCOTUS. A past and more moderate SCOTUS put its finger on the scale for the GOP after GOP operatives staged the Brook's Brothers riot. Now these chucklefucks have had the mask torn off and are just On The Take political operatives. So who knows how they'll be leveraged.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:45 PM on May 4, 2023 [3 favorites]


I have seen it said before that this is the last gasp of Republicans before the population of Gen Z voters begins to outweigh the population of Boomer voters.
I hope so, but… We’ve been expecting the demographic death of the Republican party for over twenty years now. Remember 2002 and the Emerging Democratic Majority? Remember 2008 when youth and minority voters put Democrats in control of the White House and both houses of Congress? The predicted demographic shifts have come true since then, but the predicted Democratic dominance has not.

The problem is that the parties don’t just stand still while demographic change happens around them. As Hispanic voters become more electorally important, both parties will adapt their strategy to try to appeal more to them. As younger generations grow older and become more reliable voters, they too are targeted more. Demography isn’t destiny, because the party coalitions change with every election cycle.

This adaptation does mean that the Republican party has to occasionally change its wedge issues to keep up with generational changes. They know they lost on same-sex marriage, so now they are focused on transphobia to whip up the same part of their base. I hope and trust they will decisively loose that battle too, but they can still terrorize us in the short term and then shift gears again in the long run. (And progress, sadly, does not always move forward…)
posted by mbrubeck at 12:55 PM on May 4, 2023 [10 favorites]


Gerrymandering impacts some elections but not others, so imo you should always vote. Make them fight to keep everything they've stolen. Gubernatorial, national senatorships, mayoral and judgeships races are usually not gerrymandered and these are positions that impact legislative actions and reactions. That judge may choose to enforce/stop that bill you despise. That mayor decides budgeting, the epitome of what is seen as locally important. That bond election to fund the new school football stadium, the library or the park system is not gerrymandered regardless of the other shenanigans going on about them.

The local election boards fought such good fights against "election steal" claims that Texas is now authorizing the gov to override them.

Progressive candidates are having success in getting elected. Be one, fund one, vote for one...whatever it takes.

And yes, I hope everyone can live where in places of safety and support.
posted by beaning at 2:33 PM on May 4, 2023 [4 favorites]


> But someday the GOP regime in Texas will fall, and when it does, it's going to stay fallen for a generation. Once Texans see that a Democrat can win, it's going to shift the dynamics tremendously.

Red States Need Blue Cities - "State antagonism toward cities is not sustainable."
Biden’s dominance was pronounced in the highest-output metro areas. Biden won 43 of the 50 metros, regardless of what state they were in, that generated the absolute most economic output; remarkably, he won every metro area that ranked No. 1 through 24 on that list of the most-productive places.

The Democrats’ ascendance in the most-prosperous metropolitan regions underscores how geographic and economic dynamics now reinforce the fundamental fault line in American politics between the people and places most comfortable with how the U.S. is changing and those who feel alienated or marginalized by those changes.

[...]

The trajectory is toward greater conflict between the diverse, big places that have transitioned the furthest toward the information-age economy and the usually less diverse and smaller places that have not. Across GOP-controlled states, Republicans are using statewide power rooted in their dominance of nonmetropolitan areas to pass an aggressive agenda preempting authority from their largest cities across a wide range of issues and imposing cultural values largely rejected in those big cities; several are also now targeting public universities with laws banning diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and proposals to eliminate tenure for professors.

This sweeping offensive is especially striking because, as the Brookings data show, even many red states now rely on blue-leaning metro areas as their principal drivers of economic growth. Texas, for instance, is one of the places where Republicans are pursuing the most aggressive preemption agenda, but the metros won by Biden there in 2020 account for nearly three-fourths of the state’s total economic output.

[...]

Biden-won metros also generated at least 80 percent of the total economic output in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, as well as two-thirds in Michigan and almost exactly half in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—all key swing states. And the metros he carried generated at least half of total output in several Republican states, including Texas, Iowa, and Missouri... The list of high-performing red-state metro areas that Biden carried included all four of the largest in Texas—Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio...

“The states that are most invested in the knowledge economy are overwhelmingly Democratic; large metros [in almost every state] are essentially universally Democratic; and affluent voters in these large metro areas are now overwhelmingly Democratic too,” Jacob Hacker, a Yale political scientist, told me. “The basic story seems to be that where you are seeing rapid economic growth, where the nation’s GDP is produced, you are seeing an ongoing shift toward the Democratic Party.”

[...]

Still, Hacker noted, the GOP’s “structural advantages” in the electoral system—particularly the bias in the Senate and Electoral College toward small states least affected by these changes—may allow the party to offset for years the advantages that Democrats are reaping from “economic and demographic change.” The result could be a sustained standoff between a Republican political coalition centered on the smaller places that reflect what America has been and a Democratic party grounded in the economically preeminent large metros forging the nation’s future.
posted by kliuless at 3:21 PM on May 4, 2023 [2 favorites]


It's that I don't want to look for a solution that saves a few of us. I want to look for one that saves ALL OF US.

it's called the 2nd amendment

our side needs to be better armed

the fascists need to realize that any attempt to violently suppress us can be defended against

the reason they think they can do all this crap to people is that they think we don't have the guns or the guts to fight them on it

if they see us buying arms, they will not be as inclined to push us
posted by pyramid termite at 3:52 PM on May 4, 2023 [6 favorites]


Proud Boys & co are very keen on convoying into blue cities to suppress dissent. They want to fight you where you live.
posted by ryanrs at 6:29 PM on May 4, 2023 [2 favorites]


Luckily fascism is a circular firing squad.
posted by oldnumberseven at 9:02 PM on May 4, 2023


Just a reminder that without the two hard-won Senate seats from Georgia, we have Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and a Senate that refuses to approve any Democratic nominations. If all of us who conceivably could choose to pack up and leave Georgia, the Senate is fucked.

And if Dianne Feinstein would only do the right thing and retire, Democrats could actually exercise the majority on the Judiciary committee that Georgia voters worked so hard to give them. And if they stopped honoring blue slips from the Republican minority (as Republicans did when they were the majority) maybe we could make some progress appointing judges.

Democrats need to fix this. Voters work so hard to defend democracy from fascism only to watch whatever opportunities they gain be frittered away either because individual elected Democrats don't see any urgency in protecting democracy or because they'd rather protect a system of meaningless unwritten rules that severely disadvantages them against Republicans who don't care one iota about decorum and regular order.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:47 AM on May 5, 2023 [12 favorites]


The continued ability to appoint judges and save the judiciary from Republican court packing was so crucial last year that Democrats sacrificed Build Back Better, a cornerstone of Biden's election campaign, in order to appease Manchin. Critics were repeatedly told that if we were alienate and lose Manchin, we would lose the courts, and protecting the courts is so much more urgent than anything contained in that legislation.

But now it turns out that honoring a Senate "tradition" of allowing minority senators to have a veto is even more important than protecting the courts.

This is why democracy is in peril.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:59 AM on May 5, 2023 [9 favorites]


Hey also keeping Feinstein’s decaying corpse around as a sort of mascot.
posted by Artw at 7:24 AM on May 5, 2023 [2 favorites]


She ( or probably her staff) issued a statement yesterday that she is not retiring and what's the problem?

" Feinstein indicated in the statement that she still plans to return "
"There has been no slowdown,” the California Democrat said"
"Feinstein has not voted in the Senate since February 16"

--Just promise her staff a job already.
posted by yyz at 7:37 AM on May 5, 2023


Maybe she just forgot where the Senate is.
posted by brundlefly at 7:13 PM on May 5, 2023 [1 favorite]


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