Armed Mutiny in Russia

June 23, 2023 4:04 PM

It has begun! PWC WAGNER'S owner Prigozhin has called Russians to unite behind him and bring justice and fairness to Russia! (SLYT to Inside Russia live stream) The situation is developing rapidly.
posted by Meatbomb (1106 comments total)

M4 highway (main Moscow-South road) is being blocked by FSB. Tanks and military equipment rolling into Rostov and Moscow. So far nobody else standing up for the Kremlin Chef, but his d00ds are on the road towards Rostov.

Putin sends greetings to the future of Russia on the occasion of Youth Day.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:08 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I linked this in the other thread, but I recommend Meduza’s liveblog about Prigozhin’s mutiny. Meduza is an independent Russian newssite that is currently in exile in Latvia, and they are very good at sorting through all the incoming information.
posted by Kattullus at 4:09 PM on June 23, 2023 [46 favorites]

Civil war in Russia? Whatever shittiness continues there, Putin owns it.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:13 PM on June 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

Revenge is a dish best served by a caterer?
posted by snofoam at 4:15 PM on June 23, 2023 [34 favorites]

There are a TON of rumors flying around now (if you want a bead on rumors, the top link is Konstantin from Inside Russia, live on youtube currently), but as far as verifiable info, so far it seems to be just a huge War of Public Statements.

What I think is verified so far:
- Prigozhin escalated his rhetoric finally to "we'll march on Moscow!"
- General Surovikin (a top Russian general) made a video denouncing Prigozhin's video
- The FSB / Russian prosecutors announced a criminal investigation into Prigozhin over this

.... and so far, not much else yet from reputable sources. As of writing this it's about 2:15am in Moscow, so perhaps daybreak will literally and figuratively shed more light on this.
posted by tclark at 4:16 PM on June 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

From AP:
Wagner leader calls for rebellion against Russian defense chief, Kremlin orders his arrest

The FSB urged Wagner’s contract soldiers to arrest Prigozhin and refuse to follow his “criminal and treacherous orders.” It called his statements a “stab in the back to Russian troops” and said they amounted to fomenting an armed conflict in Russia.

Interesting phraseology there.
posted by cubeb at 4:18 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

ChrisO_wiki (@[e-mail])

2/ According to the VChK-OGPU channel, a source has told it that the "Krepost" (Fortress) plan has been activated in the Russian capital. This has subsequently been confirmed by BBC News Russian. Krepost is a rarely-used security plan that is intended to repel an attack on security force installations in Moscow.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:19 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'll believe it when I see it, but so far there doesn't seem to be a lot other than bellicose statements and security forces showing a lot of presence in some cities.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:19 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

I feel like publicly announcing a rebellion (before it has concrete signs of success) is a sign that it's doomed for failure.
posted by meowzilla at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2023 [30 favorites]

Prigozhin has been hinting for a while. That he hasn't fallen off a building or succumbed to a bizarre illness as of yet doesn't bode well for the stability of the whole region.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:20 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Could be something, could be nothing. Fingers crossed for it all actually going to shit over there and not a front for a purge/reorg that will still leave them capable.

Wagner guy’s ability to run his mouth and not catch window cancer is quite remarkable but probably comes down to still being on side with Putin despite slagging off the Russian state.
posted by Artw at 4:22 PM on June 23, 2023 [10 favorites]

The FSB has brought in their elite Windows Brigade.
posted by RakDaddy at 4:23 PM on June 23, 2023 [11 favorites]

Moscow really is the Third Rome.
posted by eagles123 at 4:25 PM on June 23, 2023 [21 favorites]

Here are a couple of things that are certain, based on what info we have:

1) A couple of high level generals have released very ad-hoc and unpolished vids, asking the Wagnerites to please not follow orders and to stop the column, and arrest Prigozhin. Therefore: there really is a Wagner column on the move.

2) The Russian government has no idea what to do, and is shitting itself. This is not just smoke, shit is on fire. An "emergency announcement" was announced and then cancelled and scrubbed. Putin has still not reacted.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:27 PM on June 23, 2023 [24 favorites]

This post title should be changed. It is far too forceful and certain given how little we actually know about what's happening moment by moment.

More reliable coverage than some random YouTube live stream: NYTimes, BBC, The Guardian.
posted by Nelson at 4:31 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

This post title should be changed. It is far too forceful and certain given how little we actually know about what's happening moment by moment.

Do you think they're not armed, not in mutiny, or not in Russia?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:36 PM on June 23, 2023 [21 favorites]

Nelson, for those who know this is not a "random Youtube", he is a well informed and well connected Russian in exile, who is giving us real time updates from multiple sources in Russian language media. He will have news well before any English language media outlets.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:37 PM on June 23, 2023 [22 favorites]

Another source worth keeping an eye on, if you can still stomach twitter (big if, I know) is Christo Gorzev, lead Russia investigator with Bellingcat.
posted by the primroses were over at 4:40 PM on June 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

A week ago, Russia demanded that Wagner sign contracts with the defense ministry by July 1: Wagner's Prigozhin rebuffs Putin's demand for fighters to sign defence ministry contracts

Seems like it's less to do with justice and fairness, and more to do with Prigozhin losing his personal army.
posted by meowzilla at 4:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I have huge respect for Konstantin and have watched his livestreams many times, but I think it's important to stress that he's repeating the rumor mill that he's watching in real time, he's not transmitting vetted and verifiable news. Some of it will pan out and some of it won't and it doesn't do anyone any good to put too much credence into it yet.

There is a LOT of chaff flying around, and we need to be cautious not about Konstantin providing a service in translating Russian rumor into English for us (which is great), but about how much of what he's seeing that is fabulist, exaggerated, or just made up bullshit.
posted by tclark at 4:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [18 favorites]

Do you think they're not armed, not in mutiny, or not in Russia?

According to the most recent update on BBC, Wagner is claiming to have crossed the border into Russia near Rostov, but there is no indepent confirmation. So while I'm sure they are armed, and there is mutinious talk, they still seem a long ways away geographically.
posted by nubs at 4:45 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Do you think they're not armed, not in mutiny, or not in Russia?

Of those three things, I think the only thing that is certain is that they are armed. There are a bunch of twitter posts claiming they've crossed back into Russia, but zero photo or video evidence of it, so for all we know they could still be in occupied Ukraine. He is sure talking mutiny, but the response is so muted that it really isn't clear how serious it is on either side.

There are a lot of people making very strong statements right now but not a lot is being backed up with anything verifiable.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

I feel like publicly announcing a rebellion (before it has concrete signs of success) is a sign that it's doomed for failure.

It's also a rather florid act of public self destruction if you don't mean it, without getting into double-secret-probation speculation, like faking out Ukraine into advancing into lines that are not in fact in disorder.

Konstantine just did say that the scuttlebut is that Ukraine stepped up the pace of its attacks today in response to this.

More reliable coverage than some random YouTube live stream: NYTimes

Citation needed /s
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:52 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

1) A couple of high level generals have released very ad-hoc and unpolished vids, asking the Wagnerites to please not follow orders and to stop the column, and arrest Prigozhin. Therefore: there really is a Wagner column on the move.

2) The Russian government has no idea what to do, and is shitting itself. This is not just smoke, shit is on fire. An "emergency announcement" was announced and then cancelled and scrubbed. Putin has still not reacted.

For #1 it does not necessarily follow that Wagner is on the move. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, and we will know for sure in a few hours, but I don't think it's safe to amplify it as truth yet. Surovikin's video denouncing Prigozhin did tell Wagner troops not to follow orders, to stop the column, and arrest Prigozhin -- *as a response to Prigozhin's claim of his troops on the move.* I do not consider Surovikin's response to be definitive that troops are on the move. Maybe they are, but that thread of events is suggestive, NOT definitive.

I don't disagree with #2.
posted by tclark at 4:53 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

This, from the Financial Times' bureau chief, sums up the level of uncertainty about everything at the moment:

For those of you new to this media environment. The main sources of info are an army that lies about everything; a warlord who owns an infamous troll factory and lied about it for years; and the Kremlin. And Russia destroyed the media, so there aren't any good independent sources
posted by Dip Flash at 4:54 PM on June 23, 2023 [72 favorites]

I mean...isn't there anyone in Rostov with a cell camera and an internet connection?
posted by RakDaddy at 4:56 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Hopefully, at the very least, this is good news for Sudan and other countries Wagner has been active in.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:57 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

I mean...isn't there anyone in Rostov with a cell camera and an internet connection?

Yes. And in Moscow as well. In both cases, the photos and videos getting posted are of pretty chill street scenes, with some national guard-type armored vehicles here and there. There is a lot of hot rhetoric, but there isn't visual evidence getting posted of anything much happening.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:00 PM on June 23, 2023 [12 favorites]

I feel like publicly announcing a rebellion (before it has concrete signs of success) is a sign that it's doomed for failure.

If this is real, Prigozhin has no chance of pulling it off alone. He's offering the Russian power structure an opportunity to remove Putin. Maybe they're tired enough of trying to track just how close they are to an open window at all times to do so.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:05 PM on June 23, 2023 [18 favorites]

I don't mean to be downplaying the seriousness of the political situation -- this sure looks like a crisis and yet Putin is staying silent, so it is all very strange. But while twitter and youtube are full of breathless pronouncements about columns on the move and so on, evidence of that just isn't showing up yet.

But obviously everything could change very quickly.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:06 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Prigozhin has been saying a lot of things, but literally none of them have been confirmed independently, as far as I know.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that Prigozhin thought he could usurp Shoigu with Putin's tacit support, but he was very wrong.

Alternatively, maybe he knows more than we do about Russian troops available from Rostov to Moscow, or their readiness, and actually thought he could get away with this.

A little while ago Konstantin (who's now logged-off because it's like 4am where he is) pointed out that Prigozhin knew he was already in deep shit and this was a desperate last resort. That does make some sense.

I'm waiting for some independent and very reliable source to tell us if Wagner forces really on the move to Moscow. Or even Russians on Telegram with some video. As of ten minutes ago, there's not been anything like that yet.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 5:07 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

“Who is Wagner active in these other countries on behalf of? Is it always Russia, or are they truly mercenaries and go where the money beckons?”

They're all over Africa. Like in six different countries or something, along with Syria and the other places we've all heard about. A mercenary company that does all the government's dirty work that needs plausible deniability is going to be difficult to keep completely in line.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 5:12 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

'Who Mourns for Adonais?'

"The E̶n̶t̶e̶r̶p̶r̶i̶s̶e̶ Wagner group is accosted by a giant green hand, which turns out to belong to the G̶r̶e̶e̶k̶ Russian god A̶p̶o̶l̶l̶o̶ Putin, who demands the worship of the crew."

Russia has a long history of useful foils that seemed to escape punishment from their leader. if there is a full alert that does indicate something. Putin is also using the FSB and not the regular military it seems at this point. that in itself is rather serious as it gives pause to any who think to join Mr. Wagner and his little charade.

Perhaps Wagner wants to strike
"you're no God to us, mister."
posted by clavdivs at 5:16 PM on June 23, 2023 [10 favorites]

I mean...isn't there anyone in Rostov with a cell camera and an internet connection?

Yes.

Meduza's translations of various Telegram posts on their liveblog indicate, among other things, that Prigozhin's no longer able to post on VK.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:17 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

A little while ago Konstantin (who's now logged-off because it's like 4am where he is) pointed out that Prigozhin knew he was already in deep shit and this was a desperate last resort. That does make some sense.

Even if it were just idle threats... idle threats and criticisms get you thrown out of windows. I don't see why Prigozhin would escalate even the rhetoric to this level without understanding that this will almost certainly end with (a) Prigozhin dead, (b) Prigozhin fled to the west, or (c) Putin deposed. What other endgames are there at this point?
posted by cubeb at 5:18 PM on June 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

My favorite part of that episode (from memory, so maybe not exact quotes):

Apollo: I... am Apollo!

Chekov:And I am the Czar of All the Russias!

Kirk: Chekov.

Chekov: Sorry, Captain. I just never met a god before.

Kirk:: And you still haven't.
posted by Flunkie at 5:19 PM on June 23, 2023 [21 favorites]

Breaking. Critical shortage of popcorn in Kyiv
posted by ocschwar at 5:21 PM on June 23, 2023 [19 favorites]

Other possibility, although unlikely: Prigozhin did this on behalf of Putin, who's using it to weed out other traitors in his government. Although I think that Prigozhin and company are on cargo planes going the opposite direction.
posted by meowzilla at 5:22 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Incidentally, Meduza is suggesting that the inciting incident, or at least the video supposedly showing the aftermath of the rocket strike, is badly faked. This is what they said on the liveblog:

The video footage posted by Prigozhin earlier on June 23 that reportedly shows the aftermath of a Russian rocket strike on a Wagner rear camp is almost certainly staged. Here’s why:

• Whoever is filming doesn’t run away from the explosion, as you would expect if they feared more artillery or rocket strikes, but moves toward it.

• The people speaking off camera, before they could have gotten any real details about the incident, come to the conclusion that the Ukrainian military “can’t get at us” and that only their own “allies” could have carried out the strike.

• There’s no visible crater in any of the posted footage, or any dirt that a normal explosion would gave scattered. The surrounding vegetation and trees appear essentially unharmed, which rules out a rocket that exploded in the air. Most likely, the explosion was caused by a hand grenade going off under a tent or in one of the camp’s numerous structures.

• One part of the footage shows two fires burning in a dugout, but the fresh cover of leaves in the dugout is undamaged, and there are no visible artillery casings around.

• Prigozhin reported that the strike left a large number of victims, but the footage doesn’t show any of them. One clip shows part of a human body, but the color of the dried blood on it suggests that the person died much earlier than when the alleged strike took place.

posted by Kattullus at 5:22 PM on June 23, 2023 [18 favorites]

Tweet from individual whose bio indicates that they are part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for Ukraine, claiming that Russian State TV was hacked to broadcast Pritozhins message.

As always, fluid situation, take all information with grain of salt, etc.
posted by nubs at 5:26 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

what the actual fuck

(posting this so it's in my recent history)
posted by klangklangston at 5:27 PM on June 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

getting video in.
posted by clavdivs at 5:30 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

what the actual fuck

same and same.
posted by jquinby at 5:31 PM on June 23, 2023

You could have just clicked "[Add to Activity]"
posted by porpoise at 5:35 PM on June 23, 2023 [17 favorites]

You could have just clicked "[Add to Activity]"

If you do that, you might accidentally join the Wagner Group.
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:36 PM on June 23, 2023 [53 favorites]

This bodes well for Ukraine. New risks, but still...
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:39 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Tweeted a few minutes ago by Anton Gerashchenko:

VCHK-OGPU - from their source: "The attempts to act against Prigozhin come solely from FSB and Russian Guards. The Ministry of Defense has withdrawn itself, lower-rank officers either simply refuse to follow orders, or openly support Wagner.
As for Shoigu and co. - they simply hid and entirely lost their touch with reality. Apparently, the scare is serious."

posted by snuffleupagus at 5:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

If I were in Ukraine's government, I'd urge on a bunch of those plausibly deniable drone/sabotage attacks in Russian cities near the border. To maximize confusion and fear.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 5:43 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Vlad Vexler is also live.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:50 PM on June 23, 2023

Be skeptical but hopeful there’s some truth to the reporting. I’m very skeptical. However, even if this isn’t The Thing That Turns the Tide, it’s possible Moscow fumbles the response so badly it ends up alienating supporters (see Great Britain’s response to the Easter Uprising in Ireland) and turns into a galvanizing event.
posted by glaucon at 5:53 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

This bodes well for Ukraine. New risks, but still...

Yeah, this could be good or very bad.

On one hand it's perfectly logical for Ukraine to go on a very strong counter offensive as soon as there's anything softer than usual to fight back against it. Which would likely be expected would have already at least somewhat planned for if haphazardly executed by Russia.

And on the other hand Putin is batshit fucking crazy and I don't think the Wagner Group gives any kind of a shit if their armed rebellion pushes Putin into daring to use tactical nukes on the Ukraine and would likely see it as a fine business opportunity.

On the other-other hand Wagner is dirty as fuck and I could easily see Putin staging a fake revolution or coup to force the appearance of an exploitable crisis or blank canvas to be crazy, because *waves at centuries of incredibly brutal Russian history and tactics*.
posted by loquacious at 5:55 PM on June 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

Civil war in Russia? Whatever shittiness continues there, Putin owns it.

Civil Special Military Operation
posted by mazola at 5:58 PM on June 23, 2023 [37 favorites]

This video is being circulated as fighting in Rostov; not verified.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:01 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

I could easily see Putin staging a fake revolution or coup to force the appearance of an exploitable crisis

What would be in it for Prigozhin to play along? After he's defeated, what happens with him? Jail? Death? Exile? Disappearance out of the public limelight? Contrition and pardon? Why would he want any of those things to happen to him?

I guess "Rebel against me or else" is a remote possibility, but in that case it seems like a real revolution or coup, albeit instigated in a staged way.
posted by Flunkie at 6:02 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Prigozhin is now claiming they shot down an army heilicopter as the Wagner column advances.

Still no video of even the column that is solid.

In my opinion, there's no good outcome of this for Putin. It weakens him, no matter what. And it demoralizes Russian troops. I won't be surprised if Putin survives this (by which I mean that he survives not Wagner but the instability that this is causing) but there's no good spin on this for Putin.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:06 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

CNN is only now switching from the Titan coverage to Russia.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:09 PM on June 23, 2023 [15 favorites]

• Give a batshit insane mercenary leader a whole bunch more power and influence
• Wear your own military down in a stupid, stupid war while pissing off the mercenary army filling the gaps for you
• 😮

I mean there's a whole lot that's surprising about it but it's not exactly an unexpected outcome
posted by jason_steakums at 6:09 PM on June 23, 2023 [11 favorites]

I still haven't seen any official response from Putin. This seems like a pretty reckless move by Prigozhin if Putin is still in charge. It makes a lot more sense if Putin is incapacitated or dead.

This is pure speculation from the other side of the planet, but still... It would explain why all the Generals are taking sides publicly.
posted by Anoplura at 6:15 PM on June 23, 2023

Thing is whatever's going on is probably good for Ukraine in the way that it increases their options and opportunities and creates hope for better outcomes but I don't know that a Russia with Prigozhin closer to power is anything better at all necessarily really. I mean hasn't his general beef with the Russian power structure been more "you're fucking up and making it harder for us to kill enough Ukrainians effectively to win this for you"?

Going to depend hugely on who his allies are if things ever got to that point.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:18 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

It would explain why all the Generals are taking sides publicly.

Are any (Russian) generals taking the Prigozhin's side? Thus far, at least, everything that I've seen out of the government and the military have been pretty united in being against Prigozhin.
posted by Flunkie at 6:19 PM on June 23, 2023

Let's see if the guy in the Canberra garden shed requests asylum
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:20 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

Civil war in a nuclear power does not sound like a good thing.
posted by doctornemo at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2023 [20 favorites]

This bodes well for Ukraine.

Who the fuck knows how it bodes for anyone. We don't even know what "it" is.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:21 PM on June 23, 2023 [41 favorites]

So many Russian historical precedents...

The Decembrist uprising, where one small group tried and failed to trigger a revolution

The Time of Troubles, which starts with a succession crisis and gets much, much worse

1905, an empire-wide revolution which fails

1917, of course
posted by doctornemo at 6:22 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

1991
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:24 PM on June 23, 2023 [17 favorites]

None of the generals have taken Prigozhin's side, as far as I know. That'd be huge news.

I don't think we really have any idea of what Putin's doing. Many different things are plausible. And Prigozhin very carefully did not criticize Putin.

IMO, Putin couldn't know for sure how all the different factions will go and he's probably in a bunker somewhere with loyalists waiting to see who he can trust. I think if any of the military was going to support Prigozhin, they already would have, and I am pretty sure the security apparatus is loyal to Putin. I don't think Prigozhin has a chance and most everyone knows it. But the military has been so incompetent, it seems entirely possible — not likely, but possible — that no one could actually stop him from going all the way to Moscow. So, I dunno.

I think abunch will become more clear in the next two hours.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:26 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

"The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain is not skilful, you are ruined in the usual way." Niccolo Machiavelli
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 6:27 PM on June 23, 2023 [34 favorites]

Prigozhin coming out on top is like if Beria did. That wouldn't be a good thing for anyone except him.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:28 PM on June 23, 2023 [14 favorites]

Are any (Russian) generals taking the Prigozhin's side? Thus far, at least, everything that I've seen out of the government and the military have been pretty united in being against Prigozhin.

Yes, but so far all of the official statements I've seen have come from unnamed Kremlin or FSB spokespeople. The exception is the handful of Generals who have put out personal statements essentially saying "we're not with this guy" That plus the fact that the FSB - the successor to the KGB, and responsible for internal "security" - taking the lead on responding to Prigozhin suggests that there is distrust between the higher-ups of the various military and security branches.
posted by Anoplura at 6:30 PM on June 23, 2023

Maybe MoD stands back and let Putin, FSB and Rodgardia slug it out with Wagner. Then they clean up whoever's left with an actual General's coup. Or at least have the option to; though letting Putin stay after not supporting him would be dicey.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:32 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

My big question if the likely thing happens and Prig gets swatted down after whatever this is shakes out, what happens to Wagner? Things don't go well for Putin in Ukraine if chunks of Wagner just break up and scatter to the four winds, they're there because he needs the manpower.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:34 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Putin/Shoigu were already trying to forcibly absorb them back into the regular armed forces. So their choice would presumably that or surrender, unit by unit.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:35 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

The daily megathread in /r/credibledefense is pretty on top of collating various credible and non-credible osint reports. (Reddit bans Telegram and most .ru links — if you see a link “t .me” it’s Telegram.)
posted by nathan_teske at 6:35 PM on June 23, 2023

Putin/Shoigu were already trying to forcibly absorb them back into the regular armed forces.

Then the question is how do you even remotely trust a formerly mercenary force with the amount of resentment and dysfunction forcing them into state service would engender to not just walk off with whatever isn't nailed down anyways, possibly spreading more discontent through the regular forces they're in contact with on the way out
posted by jason_steakums at 6:38 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Jeez, without Tucker Carlson on TV I don't know where to get the Kremlin's perspective.
posted by nicwolff at 6:41 PM on June 23, 2023 [82 favorites]

Then the question is how do you even remotely trust a formerly mercenary force with the amount of resentment and dysfunction forcing them into state service would engender

The same way they keep the conscripts in line who don't want to be there. You deprive them of the means to leave and threaten them with violence up to death and you mean it.

And where are they walking to? Home? Into Ukrainian lines? Some may become the equivalent of roaming bandits; they'll be killed by whoever encounters them.

Some would doubtlessly try to melt away and go home, but just surrendering to the Ukrainians would probably be a lot safer.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Maybe the junior officers, ncos and soldiers see their generals as corrupt while they idolize Prigozhen. Maybe reports of units defecting to Wagner are correct. Right now this is just a crazy time shit show. Telegram, Twitter, VK, all usual sources are blowing up and I don’t think anyone in OSInt world knows what is going on. This is a wait and see situation.
posted by interogative mood at 6:42 PM on June 23, 2023

NetBlocks: Confirmed: Metrics show that the Google News aggregator platform has become unavailable for many users in #Russia; the incident comes amid heightened tensions between the Wagner paramilitary group and Moscow

https://mastodon.sdf.org/@[e-mail]/110596604057021309
posted by Silvery Fish at 6:44 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

This is purest gut feeling, but the Surovikin and Alekseyev videos were not only unenthusiastic but Surovikin seemed drunk and uncharacteristically nervous (compare and contrast). Both videos appear to have been filmed in the same spartan room.

As both generals have previously been positive towards Wagner, my suspicion is that they were 'collected' by FSB and 'asked' to show their loyalty to the military/state by denouncing Prigozhin's recent statements. Obviously there are other explanations that fit those observations but professions of support/opposition should be considered critically.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 6:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

At this point I'm fairly used to the idea that everything will get worse ever so much faster than I expected, but I genuinely have no idea how to react to any of this. I'm old enough to remember pre-Putin, and I'm still thinking "wait, is the sky orange now? Or green? What does color mean anyway? Should I be wearing a banana hat?"
posted by aramaic at 6:51 PM on June 23, 2023 [17 favorites]

The same way they keep the conscripts in line who don't want to be there. You deprive them of the means to leave and threaten them with violence up to death and you mean it.

Sure, but that gets less and less doable the more discontented soldiers you've got.

And where are they walking to? Home? Into Ukrainian lines? Some may become the equivalent of roaming bandits; they'll be killed by whoever encounters them.

Honestly if there were credible reports of Russian forces taking off en masse? Ukraine would probably be happy to let them leave the front through their lines as long as they keep moving. A hell of a lot easier than fighting them and the same effect on Russian forces.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:52 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Yes, that's to be expected. The question is the Russian units behind them. Blocking units are already in use in the defensive lines. A bunch of the disposable units are the Wagner formations.

Anyway, there's no need to hash out speculation about all that yet; things aren't at that stage right now.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:54 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Should I be wearing a banana hat?"

yes
posted by philip-random at 6:55 PM on June 23, 2023 [21 favorites]

This bodes well for Ukraine.

Who the fuck knows how it bodes for anyone. We don't even know what "it" is.

That, and also it isn't at all clear that even a successful coup against Putin would be good for Ukraine. Almost all the criticism Putin has faced has been from people saying that the full power of the military should be unleashed. Chaos and confusion in Russia is probably good for Ukraine, but it's not a given that the outcome will be.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:00 PM on June 23, 2023 [16 favorites]

i hope the u.s. offers immediate state recognition and backing to whichever faction allows the rest of the world to come in and remove all the fucking nukes from russia. as long as it doesn't piss off china too bad.
posted by logicpunk at 7:11 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'm following the hashtag #russia on Mastodon and it is surprisingly up-to-date.
posted by vac2003 at 7:12 PM on June 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

It does seem like a successful coup could leave Russia sufficiently distracted by internal upheaval that prosecuting a faltering war in Ukraine would not be at the top of their priority list. But who knows.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Are any (Russian) generals taking the Prigozhin's side?

I imagine that at this point any generals taking his side would be very quiet about it until the it starts becoming clear it has a good chance at success or things evolve such that they're all-in or dead.
posted by VTX at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

It appears they are at the Ministry of Defense building in Rostov.
posted by waitingtoderail at 7:13 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Sorry, link.
posted by waitingtoderail at 7:16 PM on June 23, 2023

On the other-other hand Wagner is dirty as fuck and I could easily see Putin staging a fake revolution or coup to force the appearance of an exploitable crisis or blank canvas to be crazy, because *waves at centuries of incredibly brutal Russian history and tactics*.

Even though we no longer approve of Larry Niven, I believe it is still appropriate to deploy the term “gripping hand” in these circumstances.
posted by skyscraper at 7:16 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

I'm not prepared to just assume those are Wagner soldiers we're seeing in those videos from Rostov-on-Don. They could just as well be Russian army preparing to protect government buildings, etc.
posted by Joakim Ziegler at 7:17 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Gmaps sez it's 1200km, about 15 hours, from Rostov to Moscow along the E119 and the M-4 but there are some tolls
posted by glonous keming at 7:18 PM on June 23, 2023 [14 favorites]

I hope the White House has its back channels open to whomever currently has control over Russia's nuclear weapons. A coup led by mercenaries who commit open war crimes is an easy way for this to transition to something even worse.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:19 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Also probably some logistical challenges to fuel all of those vehicles.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 7:20 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

With the troop activity near the MoD building in Rostov (based on the videos above that are coming out to Aric Toler's twitter as well as OSINTTechnical and other folks online getting stuff directly or from various Telegram channels), there doesn't currently seem to be much fighting happening, so if the troops are Wagner forces, there's no visible resistance yet.
posted by tclark at 7:23 PM on June 23, 2023

They could just as well be Russian army preparing to protect government buildings

There appears to be a pallet of ammunition boxes (?) in front of the civilians watching and recording…what are those? Who put them there? They seemed to have been in place already as the tanks rolled up.
posted by Toecutter at 7:24 PM on June 23, 2023

> a pallet of ammunition boxes (?) in front of the civilians

i think those are pavers for the sidewalk. it looks like they haven't finished filling in up to the curb
posted by glonous keming at 7:26 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Hmmmm maybe those are just pavers…
posted by Toecutter at 7:26 PM on June 23, 2023

NAFO live stream with LazerPig and others on DigitalVagrant’s twitch stream.
posted by interogative mood at 7:31 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Taking over the Southern headquarters of the Ministry of Defense, as it looks like Wagner forces are doing, could be pretty significant.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:33 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Chatter now about Voronezh, maybe Lukashenko's jet leaving Belarus; nothing verifiable of course.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:40 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

@DarthPutinKGB:

I’m beginning to think that giving a psychopath his own private army of criminals was not a good idea.

posted by snuffleupagus at 7:49 PM on June 23, 2023 [28 favorites]

Alexander Vindman points out that with control of the ministry of defense building they now have control of strategic assets. That is, nukes.
posted by waitingtoderail at 7:50 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Too Many Cooks!
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:51 PM on June 23, 2023 [12 favorites]

@Osinttechnical

Over 350km north of Rostov in Voronezh Oblast, it appears that a separate group of Wagner forces are pushing north on the M4 highway, engaging Russian forces outside of Pavlovsk at the moment.

posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 PM on June 23, 2023

It's not quite 6am in Moscow right now. The next 4 hours or so will be really telling. If we don't hear from Putin by then, I think is safe to assume that he is dead or incapacitated in some way. There's no way he wouldn't want to get his face out there sending a strong message that he is still in control. He is nothing if not extremely vain, and a propagandist who needs to control the message.
posted by Anoplura at 7:57 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I’m beginning to think that giving a psychopath his own private army of criminals was not a good idea.

DID YOU GUYS WATCH NARCOS?!

now I know why you're all in love with pedro pascal.
posted by alex_skazat at 7:58 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

If we don't hear from Putin by then, I think is safe to assume that he is obviously in a sub.
posted by alex_skazat at 7:59 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I wonder if the FSB is noping out under orders from Putin, in spite of orders from Putin, or because they're not 100% sure that the aggressors aren't allied with Putin.
posted by credulous at 8:01 PM on June 23, 2023

I don't think the FSB in Rostov is equipped to take on tanks.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:02 PM on June 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

I wonder if the FSB is noping out under orders from Putin, in spite of orders from Putin, or because they're not 100% sure that the aggressors aren't allied with Putin.

I don't really know anything about this, but I'm guessing that a regional FSB headquarters is not really up to the task of resisting actual tank-supported troops.

Not saying that the options you listed are wrong; just that it seems at least plausible that it's mainly staffed by bureaucrats and secret police types whose reaction to looking out the window and seeing literal tank barrels literally pointed at them would perhaps not be "I will fight to the death!", and understandably so.
posted by Flunkie at 8:06 PM on June 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

prigozhin has been saying a lot of things this year, things that would get some other people shoved out of a window or shot

how is it that he's gotten away with that?
posted by pyramid termite at 8:07 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

on non-preview, yeah, what he said :P
posted by Flunkie at 8:07 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Prigozhen has shown remarkable resistance to acute bouts of Russian Window-Flu that speaks to the power of and dependence on the Wagner Group, but does he have broadwr support outside his Mercenary Enclave? This feels doomed.

It makes me wonder if it's planned, or if it's a case of "in a violent autocracy, the only way to survive being acused of attempting a coup... is to actually decide to conduct a coup and attempt to succeed."
posted by midmarch snowman at 8:07 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

One day a few weeks ago, I spent perhaps forty minutes browsing through the Twitter feed for "Russia", and it was pretty clear from all the various bits of news that Russia was in trouble, and there were even some claims that it was on the brink of civil war. I was trying to weigh everything I read, and thought that the civil war claims at least were probably exaggerated, but it seems not.
posted by orange swan at 8:08 PM on June 23, 2023

how is it that he's gotten away with that?

Did you catch the part where he commands a literal army?
posted by escape from the potato planet at 8:09 PM on June 23, 2023 [10 favorites]

Prigozhin and Wagner have been useful - especially in comparison to the flailingly incompetent official military. Also, he's been careful -- even up to now -- to try to be seen as not complaining about Putin.
posted by Flunkie at 8:10 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

how is it that he's gotten away with that?

"If only the Tsar knew what the boyars were doing in his name!"
posted by tclark at 8:10 PM on June 23, 2023 [27 favorites]

how is it that he's gotten away with that?

you flatten every building taller than two stories you get near, keeps the window flu at bay
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:11 PM on June 23, 2023 [15 favorites]

And, crazy as it may sound, Prigozhin's army is better trained, better equipped, better supplied, and not demoralized.

And Prigozhin is a big pile of shit, so him taking over would not be a great thing, I don't think
posted by Windopaene at 8:14 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

I'm putting my money on Putin dead or incapacitated. This looks like a power vacumn/vacuum (sp?) situation. I wonder what the other Putin oligarch buddies are up to right now?
posted by Windopaene at 8:17 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

This is like something out of the nastier parts of the Italian Renaissance.
posted by clawsoon at 8:18 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

And Prigozhin is a big pile of shit, so him taking over would not be a great thing, I don't think

Can't imagine him being accepted as the head of state by the population or the international community, but just having him as a permanent fixture running Russian Cobra as an arm of a military junta wouldn't be too good either.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 PM on June 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

Aric Toler - I remember reading in school about how there would be crowds of civilians who'd recreationally watch battles in the 18th/19th century, and about how insane that sounded at the time.

Lots of civilians just hanging around watching all the soldiers and tanks. Although I think all those government buildings may be completely empty at this point.
posted by meowzilla at 8:22 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Wouldn't it be something if Wagner were moving toward Moscow a much larger force that's not easily recognizable while everyone is captivated by what's happening in Rostov? And taking or incapacitating the MoD HQ in Rostov is how they could get away with it?

I don't believe that Prigozhin or his officers are that competent, though. Nor that he could he move a substantial force in the interior without detection. But this has all been very weird.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:28 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

It’s probably better that I’m going to bed rather than endlessly doom (or whatever) scrolling, but I’ve got to say that I really miss pre-Elon-Musk Twitter tonight.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:32 PM on June 23, 2023 [26 favorites]

Officer's coup? In coordination w/Wagner?

The uppermost command aren't the people actually running the communications systems and issuing orders.

Allegiance of VKS and the rocket forces matters.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:33 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Nor that he could he move a substantial force in the interior without detection. But this has all been very weird.

He did say fairly recently (around the time of the cross-border raids into Belgorod) that he was moving some Wagner forces to Belgorod to defend the border. If that actually was done, those forces would be hundreds of miles closer to Moscow than the ones in Rostov. Also, depending exactly where they are, Voronezh (which has also been getting some "Wagner's coming" chatter) might be on the way from there to Moscow.
posted by Flunkie at 8:39 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

There are now a few people on Twitter expressing doubts that this is Wagner in Rostov. I'm not sure if that's actually good or not.
posted by meowzilla at 8:48 PM on June 23, 2023

There are now a few people on Twitter expressing doubts that this is Wagner in Rostov. I'm not sure if that's actually good or not.

I'm inclined to believe it's Wagner. They're pointing their weapons AT the MoD building.
posted by tclark at 8:51 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

This video is nuts. I like how two of the gawkers scurry away as a soldier takes a prone position with a rifle behind the same streetlight they're standing beside.

Unless Wagner has already occupied the ministry building with a small force in an action we've had no word of, it doesn't make any sense that both the turrets and soldiers' rifles are aimed at the HQ.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 8:52 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

The lack of resistance does make me think it might all be a show, but I guess I don't really see what Putin would have to gain that would be worth the embarrassment of his pet mercenaries apparently running free in Rostov-on-Don? There aren't any institutions with real power that Putin needs to undermine, are there? So it's not like Erdogan using his quasi-coup to take out democratic institutions.
posted by tavella at 8:58 PM on June 23, 2023

I'm perfectly happy to have Russian mercenaries and Russian soldiers killing each other in Russia. Means fewer innocent Ukrainians dead. So every Russian death here makes me cheer.

It's a bit early to declare this good for Ukraine. Or the globe.
posted by 2N2222 at 9:08 PM on June 23, 2023 [14 favorites]

Has anyone thought of simply challenging Prigozhin to a debate?
posted by ctmf at 9:08 PM on June 23, 2023 [20 favorites]

It's always a tragedy when working class people kill each other and die in a conflict between oligarchs. Plus, this conflict may invovle a particularly nasty kind of nuclear proliferation.
posted by Hume at 9:10 PM on June 23, 2023 [17 favorites]

Has anyone thought of simply challenging Prigozhin to a debate?

The cool kids have moved on from that. Now it's cage matches.
posted by tclark at 9:10 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

@TimothyDSnyder: “A propos Prigozhin’s rebellion in Russia, the eminent military historian Sir Lawrence David Freedman, KCMG CBE PC FBA notes that ‘shit just got real.’”
posted by mazola at 9:14 PM on June 23, 2023 [11 favorites]

The cool kids have moved on from that. Now it's cage matches.

I think it just shifted to thumb wrestling.
posted by MrGuilt at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

RIP Michael Kofman's inbox
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:15 PM on June 23, 2023

willing to switch sides.

I think this theory might have some legs- The invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be quick and easy and now, over a year later, poorly equipped and under trained conscripts and reserve troops see a sorta populist, military guy saying enough is enough this war is stupid. I'd hazard a guess that average Russians against the war might see this as a good time to take their silent feelings and act on them. It sucks that a jerk like Prigozhin is the Daniel Shay character.

Anyone got a quick handy reference for how many troops Wagner has in the area, how many total, how many overseas? Just how effective can they be against air power?
posted by vrakatar at 9:34 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

This is a great article from the Guardian about Prigozhin’s (& Wagner’s) history and context.
posted by archy at 9:38 PM on June 23, 2023 [10 favorites]

I'd be hesitant to categorize Prigozhin as saying "enough is enough this war is stupid". He's long been outwardly criticizing the execution of the war as being stupid, but he's also an ultranationalist scumbag who has always seemed to be 100% behind the idea of annihilating Ukraine.
posted by Flunkie at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2023 [26 favorites]

Not sure if posted yet, but probably good to keep in mind:

from the financial times Moscow Bureau chief

For those of you new to this media environment. The main sources are an army that lies about everything; a warlord who owns an infamous troll factory and lied about it for years; and the Kremlin. And Russia destroyed the media, so there aren’t any good independent sources.
posted by eagles123 at 9:41 PM on June 23, 2023 [12 favorites]

Video Shows Prigozhin in Rostov with General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the Southern Military District.. Wikipedia on the Southern Military District. One of five military districts in Russia. This is a huge deal.
posted by interogative mood at 9:46 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I'd be hesitant to categorize Prigozhin as saying "enough is enough this war is stupid". He's long been outwardly criticizing the execution of the war as being stupid, but he's also an ultranationalist scumbag who has always seemed to be 100% behind the idea of annihilating Ukraine.

Prigozhin hasn’t to my knowledge said shit about Putin, all but framing his attacks on the Russian military as something he is doing FOR Putin.

He’s recently been saying all of the lies to justify the war, which are Putins lies, are lies… but he’s reframed it as lies that the military has told Putin, making Putin the wronged party.

Putin IS Russia, so this is not Prigozhin against Russia, it’s Prigozhin competing for Russia’s favour.
posted by Artw at 9:48 PM on June 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

I'm sorry, I'm not sure if I'm interpreting you correctly, but in case I am: I wasn't saying anything (there) about Prigozhin's statements on Putin. In fact earlier in this thread, I've pointed out basically the same thing as you on that.
posted by Flunkie at 9:53 PM on June 23, 2023

Video Shows Prigozhin in Rostov with General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the Southern Military District.

"this page doesn't exist"
posted by Flunkie at 9:54 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

This is a better link (unless it gets deleted).
posted by tclark at 9:56 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Mercurius Goldstein (@[e-mail])

Can’t believe it’s taken until 2023 for anyone to think of invading Russia in the *summer*

#russia

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:58 PM on June 23, 2023 [41 favorites]

Flunkie - I think I’m more continuing the thought than disagreeing, but apologies if I’m just reiterating what you were saying earlier.
posted by Artw at 10:03 PM on June 23, 2023

No need for apologies.
posted by Flunkie at 10:10 PM on June 23, 2023

Mod note: A couple comments deleted (perhaps more once I'm able to catch up with the full thread). Please keep this discussion centered on news, facts, updates, etc., and avoid derailing arguments about how people should / shouldn't feel about it. (You can discuss that here, though.) Thanks, everyone
posted by taz (staff) at 10:11 PM on June 23, 2023 [12 favorites]

He's not going against Putin explicitly, but he's definitely indirectly challenging Putin's judgment and authority by demanding the resignation (or worse) of two top-level Putin-appointed government officials. If Putin wanted them gone, he'd have removed them himself. I don't see any way this ends with Prigozhin and Putin both in their previous positions of power.
posted by Joakim Ziegler at 10:14 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Thought this was interesting to read

https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1672368356819869696?t=hD19AWT51o1sT8TGQ5Oe_A&s=19
posted by kensington314 at 10:24 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Getting some very weird flashbacks to playing the 2001 strategy game Empire Earth as a kid, whose future scenarios involved (among other things) a brutal yet cunning Russian ultranationalist with a grudge against a westernizing Ukraine who uses his own private army to launch a coup from the south that captures Moscow in the summer of 2023.

Here's hoping we avoid the eventual outcome of a giant cybernetic mecha-Prigozhin becoming president and conquering the free world.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:24 PM on June 23, 2023 [14 favorites]

Thought this was interesting to read

This seems quite outdated already, despite being from only 7 hours ago.
posted by Joakim Ziegler at 10:29 PM on June 23, 2023 [8 favorites]

“All warfare is based on deception. Therefore when we are able to attack we must seem unable; when using our forces we must appear inactive; when we are near we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away we must make him believe we are near.”

This advice is 2500 years old and still quoted today, so... just put a pin in that, I guess. Keep it in mind.
posted by mhoye at 10:30 PM on June 23, 2023 [9 favorites]

Inside Russia is about to go live again.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:31 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

It's now possible that instead of Wagner being folded into the Russian army, that Wagner is going to get even more support and maybe command of Russian Army troops or an entire theater of the war.
posted by meowzilla at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2023

Thought this was interesting to read

That thread is not wildly different from what I was expecting if you'd told me yesterday that Prigozhin would make a move today.

And it totally hasn't played out like that. Prigozhin may yet get nabbed, but at the moment he's effectively taken Rostov bloodlessly, got the Southern District brass in his pocket, and Wagner seems to be moving northward and getting closer to Voronezh.
posted by tclark at 10:33 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Bret Devereaux has a good take of things are taken at their face before
posted by Carillon at 10:34 PM on June 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Ilya Matveev could not have been more wrong on how things played out since they posted that. The terrifying part is that his dismissive attitude comes across as some Weimar Republic political analyst dismissing a failed house painter and lowly Corporal who seems to think he can last as German Chancellor.
posted by interogative mood at 10:42 PM on June 23, 2023 [3 favorites]

Rhaomi: Getting some very weird flashbacks to playing the 2001 strategy game Empire Earth as a kid, whose future scenarios involved (among other things) a brutal yet cunning Russian ultranationalist with a grudge against a westernizing Ukraine who uses his own private army to launch a coup from the south that captures Moscow in the summer of 2023.

This, and reading about a book whose scenario is roughly the Titan(ic) being sunk from hitting an iceberg, written fourteen years before that happened for real, makes me think there are have been will be people that do have access to time travel. Who are they and are they selling rides (on properly certified craft)?
posted by Stoneshop at 10:48 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Per Meduza: Putin will make a speech shortly, reports TASS citing presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
posted by flug at 10:54 PM on June 23, 2023

Just yesterday an ex Duma deputy pointed out Putin's official schedule overlapped, with a televised "live" security council at the same time as he was filmed taking part in the commemoration of the anniversary of Germany's attack on the USSR. I'm kiiiinda wondering if that wasn't a tell tale "real Putin is having trouble" thing that influenced the timing here.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:03 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Curious to see when we see Putin, things will make more sense then?
posted by Carillon at 11:06 PM on June 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Putin is hiding, scared. And I'm pretty sure that's the fastest way to lose in this kind of situation.

He's no Zelenskyy, that's for sure.
posted by ryanrs at 11:26 PM on June 23, 2023 [5 favorites]

I fired up the reckons-o-matic (opened a can of cider) and this came out:

It's an ugly situation for Putin. Actually fighting is going to escalate things and certainly will make winning in Ukraine even harder. But his strength is in the appearance of strength so capitulating is also bad: if Prigozhin can make demands and win, others will try too. How to thread the needle? Probably agree to demands now, then invite Prigozhin to Moscow to finalise terms, then kill him.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 11:27 PM on June 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

It would be extremely funny if Prigozhin went to Moscow after receiving assurances, entered some government building to "discuss terms", and five minutes later came flying out of a top-floor window.
posted by Joakim Ziegler at 11:29 PM on June 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

My read:

Prigozhin's ongoing window avoidance is best explained by he and Putin both being competent mob bosses who understand that working together makes them stronger. The war has been a shitshow from the beginning but Putin has had no way out that wouldn't make his initial overconfidence look stupid, so his only PR-compatible move has been continuous escalation. Both Putin and Prigozhin have always understood that this is not sustainable.

Prigozhin's army has now grown to the extent that he's able to offer Putin an out that involves blaming the whole thing on bad advice from the Russian military establishment (guy with his own army taking on the Establishment is a move out of Hitler's playbook, for what that's worth). The endgame would have Putin execute some generals for treason and put Prigozhin in charge of running all of Russia's armed forces.

If this is close to how things are, what I would expect to see is Prigozhin making a lot of noise about how badly the Russian military establishment has let down the President and, by extension, Russia. I would not expect to see him criticize Putin personally, not ever.
posted by flabdablet at 12:00 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Putin livestream on Kremlin Telegram just now:

My RU is not perfect, but he has basically confirmed and condemned the actions of the mutineers, waves the fear of civil war. Constitutional order and integrity of Russia will be preserved. We won't repeat mistakes, these criminals will be punished, we will stand even stronger, blah blah blah.

But: he is alive, and he confirms big shit is happening.
posted by Meatbomb at 12:06 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

Putin calls it treason.
posted by Flunkie at 12:13 AM on June 24, 2023

Finding it interesting that (according to the BBC) he's not calling out Wagner or Prigozhin by name. Maybe that doesn't mean anything, but it feels strange to me.
posted by nubs at 12:15 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

:Yeah, it's on BBC and I expect elsewhere... Putin seems to be unhappy about the whole thing. Game On!
posted by zengargoyle at 12:15 AM on June 24, 2023

Ukraine cheekily produced a map which shows Voronezh and Rostov Oblasts under the control of Wagner, not Russia.
posted by meowzilla at 12:18 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

Considering reports were starting to emerge that the UA spring counteroffensive was stumbling - and that Russia was making plans for a deliberate Chernobyl-style ecocide with Zaporizhzhia
- isn’t this mostly a good thing as long it remains non-nuclear?
posted by Ryvar at 12:19 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: Wonder what Kadyrov is up to today?

Well, he's been asked to stop Wagner.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:51 AM on June 24, 2023

ChurchHatesTucker: Can’t believe it’s taken until 2023 for anyone to think of invading Russia in the *summer*

Both Barbarossa and Napoleon's invasion started in the summer, in fact even right around this date, but they didn't achieve the planned objectives in time.

As has been shown in a recent installment starting in the winter and in the other direction makes little difference.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:13 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Putin's video is convincing. He looks alive and well. BOOOOOOO!

Not (and never!) rooting for Prigozhin, but was really hoping for a messy end to Putin's reign. It probably wouldn't change much in the long term, but I kinda hoped that it would give a brief reflective pause to the myriad other neo-fascist world leaders.
posted by Anoplura at 1:13 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Meatbomb: he is alive

Well, at least one of him is.
posted by Too-Ticky at 1:17 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Most Russian troops in Ukraine surely must stay committed in Ukraine just to hold the line there. So what forces in Federation territory are actually available to repel the Wagnerites? It must be challenging to put down an insurrection of troops who have already seen combat and don't give a shit.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:19 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

OBON, Rosvgardia (both somewhere between a better-equipped US police force and the National Guard), several Spetsnaz units, regular army not yet committed to fight in Ukraine.

OBON and Rosvgardia were seen looking at Wagner forces, clearly thinking "this shit is above my pay grade, they have actual fucking TANKS, we don't". Spetsnaz, especially units in and around Moscow and St. Petersburg may well be different although there are reports of one of those units refusing to leave their barracks.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:38 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Perhaps most of the RF army is in Ukraine. And Prigozhin is now blocking important supply lines by occupying Donetsk. That doesn't seem like a great situation? At least so it is claimed.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 1:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

2021 - We have the second best army in the world
2022 - We have the second best army in Ukraine
2023 - We have the second best army in Russia

I recently watched a lecture by Ruth Ben-ghiat, she studies right-wing fascism. She remarked that part of structural fascism is making the government a refuge for criminals. Justice doesn't apply to the loyalists. It isn't breaking the law that gets you in trouble - that's fine, even expected - it's disloyalty. This broken system of justice inevitably leads to repeated and unsustainable purges. It's unavoidable, crooks aren't really good at sharing, they always want more. Greed, envy, megalomania, egomania, aggression - fascism selects for these traits. So purges are necessary to enforce loyalty. It's also why a fascist state is unsustainable - well, part of the reason.

It always ends. Fascism doesn't last forever, it's inherently unstable. It always escalates, it always doubles down, there is no reverse gear, there is no mechanism to avoid the breaking point.
posted by adept256 at 2:14 AM on June 24, 2023 [71 favorites]

This is a weird timeline.
posted by Tenuki at 2:16 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Ukraine military showing that it's ok to enjoy some popcorn at a time like this.
posted by otsebyatina at 2:35 AM on June 24, 2023 [30 favorites]

I wonder if Prigozhin will be able to keep on paying his mercenaries.
posted by awfurby at 3:11 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

re: a number of comments highlighting that Prigozhin never directly criticises Putin.

He (Prigozhin) has now been quoted by numerous sources as describing Putin as 'deeply mistaken' in response to Putin brading him a traitor.
posted by lovelyzoo at 3:28 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Since we're sharing tweets we enjoyed....

If Russia is serious about peace they need to make territorial concessions to Wagner to end the war now
posted by Busy Old Fool at 3:30 AM on June 24, 2023 [40 favorites]

I got the the train from Moscow to Kyiv in 2010. I crossed the border lying down with no pants on. This is all absolutely nuts and I don’t know what else to say.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 3:31 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

A tweet regarding flights turning up on Flightradar: "More and more private jets with no declared destination or Turkey as destination appear over Moscow. The[y] are making a run for it.."
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:35 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

Something got blown up in Voronezh about an hour ago, before this webcam was turned off.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:16 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Darth Putin:

Day 485 of my 3 day war. Russia is invading Russia to free Russia from those who invaded Russia to free Russia from those who invaded Russia.

I remain a master strategist.
posted by DreamerFi at 4:23 AM on June 24, 2023 [39 favorites]

via Twitter, video purported to be a strike on an insurgent column moving up the M4 north of Voronezh.

Seems like it was an oil depot in Voronezh that was blown up.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:27 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
posted by glaucon at 4:46 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Josh Marshall from Talking Points Memo posted his lists of Twitter accounts he's found to be useful that cover the Ukraine crisis generally and Ukraine war military analysis specifically.
posted by mediareport at 4:53 AM on June 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

awfurby: I wonder if Prigozhin will be able to keep on paying his mercenaries.

Wagner also operates in Syria and several countries in Africa, the latter involving mining operations and supporting corrupt governments. Those are said to pay well, enough that whether or not the Russian MoD keeps paying Wagner's bills for services rendered in Ukraine won't make that much of a difference.

But as any business, if the customer is unwilling to pay you halt that job.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: It's a small irony that Russians will be using American weapons against Russians.

Not the first time. I don't doubt Lend-Lease equipment has been used against Russian units fighting on the side of the Germans in WW2.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:01 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Wagner also operates in Syria and several countries in Africa, the latter involving mining operations and supporting corrupt governments.

The principle objection to label king Wagner a terrorist organization.
posted by Artw at 5:01 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I recently watched a lecture by Ruth Ben-ghiat, she studies right-wing fascism. She remarked that part of structural fascism is making the government a refuge for criminals.

adept256, do you have a link for this? It sounds interesting.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 5:21 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Full transcript of Putin's address
posted by mediareport at 5:22 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Claim that Putin's plane has left for St Petersburg. (Unverified Twitter)
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:25 AM on June 24, 2023

Recent WSJ documentary on Wagner, Shadow Men: Inside Russia’s Secret War Company via Jane Lytvynenko, freelance journalist focusing on Russia's war on Ukraine.
posted by the primroses were over at 5:31 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

I'd like to cite some quotes piggy made in may:

'We came in boorishly, trampling all over Ukraine’s territory in search of Nazis. And while we searched for Nazis, we fucked up everyone we could,’ Prigozhin told the pro-war political journalist Konstantin Dolgov in an interview on Tuesday.

‘The special military operation was done for the purpose of ‘denazification’…But we ended up legitimising Ukraine. We’ve made Ukraine into a nation known all over the world. As for demilitarisation…. Fuck knows how, but we’ve militarised Ukraine!'

...

‘Russia needs to take a page out of North Korea’s book for a certain number of years: close all our borders, stop pulling punches, bring back all our boys from abroad, and work hard. Then we’ll see some kind of result.’

I think he understands the reality of the defeat Russia is facing. And I agree with the second quote. I love Ukraine, my whole heart is with them. The courage, bravery, resilience, cunning, the hope and pride for their country - 100% Ukrainium. They are my heroes. Slava Ukraini.

Putin did that. Putin made Ukraine famous.

Motherfucker looks like uncle fester.
posted by adept256 at 5:46 AM on June 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

I really hope Ukraine makes the most of this and this war can be over. Fuck Putin, Prigozhin and the whole nationalistic war machine they have created.

As my international relations experience isn’t much more than playing games of Risk though, I’ll ask - if Russia really turns into a hot mess, how much risk is there that it becomes even more a client-State of the PRC, who I am sure would just love to help their neighbor “stabilize”?
posted by inflatablekiwi at 5:51 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Time to go play some Fog of War chess to get a sense of how everybody's feeling right now.
posted by clawsoon at 6:00 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

@dianabutlerbass: So, we’ve had a global pandemic, the rise of fascism, and a Titanic disaster - why not throw in a Russian revolution to complete the early 20th century historical rerun?
posted by srboisvert at 6:05 AM on June 24, 2023 [49 favorites]

Did anyone guess that Prigozhin might be lying about not getting enough missiles?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 6:26 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Twitter link: Watching the coup via Google Map's traffic reports in Russia .
posted by srboisvert at 6:30 AM on June 24, 2023 [16 favorites]

I've been scanning the internets and have been (maybe not) surprised to see how quiet it is among Putin's cheerleaders. A couple of third tier deplorables have been floating a narrative that Dark Brandon has simply made Wagner Group a better offer. Perhaps there will be a realignment among the Axis of Assholes if they think Prigozhin has a bigger dick than Putin. But that would mean an uneasy alliance with the imaginary Deep State machinations. The Republican party will have to decide who's calling the shots soon.

There is yet to be anything about how weak Putin is looking right now, even if he does prevail. I, for one, blame wokeism.
posted by 2N2222 at 6:39 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

The traffic reports show chaos very close to Moscow, but that's probably the regime putting up roadblocks, not the arrival of Wagner? Seems to soon to me.
posted by Harald74 at 6:43 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

(Getting a military convoy to move at a sustained rate of more than 40 km/h, even on a motorway, is not really possible)
posted by Harald74 at 6:44 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Mod note: (posting this so it's in my recent history)

Please note that there's an "add to activity" at the top of every thread so folks can add a thread to Recent Activity without making unnecessary comments.

This thread has various flags, I'm working my through them, so please be patient about that y'all, the coffee this morning is terrible.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [42 favorites]

When Wagner gets to Moscow.
posted by Meatbomb at 6:57 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Twitter is of course not even remotely useful for understanding the ongoing developments, but the memes are fuckign golden.
posted by ocschwar at 7:05 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Prigozhin's Mutiny: What's going on in Russia? (Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London).
posted by mazola at 7:05 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Just saw a report that Wagner convoy is 2 hours from Moscow.
posted by sammyo at 7:05 AM on June 24, 2023

If you were a Wagner mercenary with a contract, would you want to switch over and sign a contract with the Russian MOD?

This kerfuffle happened after Putin's order went out for the mercenaries to sign up to the MOD by July 1rst. But a Wagner mercenary gets around $10,000 US per month while a MOD contract soldier gets around $3000 US per month.

I suspect a heck of a lot of the Wagner fighters simply can't afford to follow that order.

So, how would you manage if you had to accept your income dropping by more than two thirds AND the loss of your benefits?

I wonder if the order went out simply because Putin needs to cut expenses and wanted to push the middleman out. Maybe it's not that he wanted to de-fang Prighozin, but that he can't afford to pay his rates any more.

I also wonder how much the disparate rates of pay has fueled the tensions between the reg forces and the mercenaries, and if right now the mercenaries' PR is working very, very hard to not let on it's about the money.
posted by Jane the Brown at 7:14 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

Right now nobody is fighting back, which must be a nice change of pace for them/generally more what they expect. Invading Russia is just easier to do than invading Ukraine, unclear how long that will last.
posted by Artw at 7:18 AM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Mod note: A few more comments removed. Please stay focused on the subject of the post aka Russia and leave America out of it, unless something drastically changes, thanks.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:21 AM on June 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

Just saw a report that Wagner convoy is 2 hours from Moscow.

That's not a report. That's a screenshot of a tweet that doesn't even show what account posted it.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 7:32 AM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

Right now nobody is fighting back, which must be a nice change of pace for them/generally more what they expect. Invading Russia is just easier to do than invading Ukraine, unclear how long that will last.

The lack of visible resistance so far is really speaking volumes. The regular military as well as the national guard-type units aren't necessarily coming out in support of Wagner, but they are notably standing aside. There have been just a couple of minor clashes that have been filmed, but nothing like what you would see if there was a full militarized response (like carpet-bombing the convoy).

The street scenes in Rostov were funny as well. While the Wagner forces were aiming tanks at the MOD building, they were all super relaxed and didn't seem to be feeling any danger whatsoever. And meanwhile, people were casually walking by There was one hipster dude with a manbun filming with his phone next to the soldiers and everyone was being very chill despite the heavy armament parked on the street.

It's hard to get a 1:1 comparison, but this is sort of like if a convoy of Blackwater mercenaries/contractors was heading towards Washington with the stated intention of deposing all of the senior Pentagon leadership, and all that happened was having the Tennessee highway patrol and a few national guard platoons set up soome roadblocks that you can drive around. At some point you have to start wondering whose side everyone is on.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:34 AM on June 24, 2023 [18 favorites]

The ouster of Putin, should that be the result, may not be the end of problems with Russia. The last thing we need is anarchy in a country full of nuclear weapons.
posted by tommasz at 7:35 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

Is it possible that the FSB's 2022 prediction that the defending military wouldn't put up a fight and Russian invaders could roll into the capital unopposed turns out to be right, just not about which capital?
posted by justkevin at 7:36 AM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

The language in the "Wagner is approaching Moscow" claim appears in this person's Substack, but I can't find it on their Twitter feed (granted, I didn't try very hard).

It's not immediately clear to me who they are, what their affiliations are, where they're getting this information, or whether we should regard them as a reliable source on this subject.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 7:39 AM on June 24, 2023

Watching the coup via Google Map's traffic reports in Russia.

Well that certainly would explain the private jets taking off from Moscow en masse. Looks like Wagner's column is maybe an hour out of the city now, if Google Maps is accurate? If Prigozhin has been hoarding missiles and other armament while very publicly crying out that he's under-equipped, for at least two months now, and that open secret stayed kept...then he's not a lone wolf here, he probably had a lot of conversations with a lot of Russian military commanders ahead of this action, and already has tacit support. If invading Ukraine really does appear as the obvious and massive blunder it was to the Russian military (how could it not), then Prigozhin recognized that it's time for regime change and has been working toward this moment for some time.

(I just don't see a professional trajectory from 'caterer' to 'powerful, immensely wealthy warlord' without considerable amounts of cunning, strategic intelligence, etc. I don't know much about Prigozhin, but what I do know of that psychopath's story shows deliberate trajectory on his part, based around a deep Russian nationalism and plain desire for power. So I don't think this is an ill-considered or desperate action on his part, it actually looks really planned so far.)
posted by LooseFilter at 7:40 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

Google maps’ trafffic setting is showing the M4 highway between Voronezh and Moscow is closed until 11pm tonight.

Whatever other chaos might be going on, that’s not nothing.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:46 AM on June 24, 2023

If you desire memes and the moral equivalent of chomping popcorms more than you need actual facts, and if using reddit won't pollute your precious bodily fluids, then r/nafo and r/noncredibledefense have gone apeshit
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:46 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

What if the long game here is that Prigozhin goaded Putin into the Ukraine invasion to deplete Russian resistance and armaments just so he could make this exact move?

Well any evidence of that at all is a good start.
posted by mazola at 7:47 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

I'd sure like to know what's going on with control of whatever Russian air assets were in Rostov, supporting the war. Did they leave? Are they sitting it out? Did they defect?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:53 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

It's not immediately clear to me who they are, what their affiliations are, where they're getting this information, or whether we should regard them as a reliable source on this subject.

If Prigozhin has seized nuclear weapons, as claimed in that link, that's a very serious development. Has anyone seen corroboration elsewhere?
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

The lack of visible resistance so far is really speaking volumes. The regular military as well as the national guard-type units aren't necessarily coming out in support of Wagner, but they are notably standing aside. There have been just a couple of minor clashes that have been filmed, but nothing like what you would see if there was a full militarized response (like carpet-bombing the convoy).

Rosgvardiya have armored mobile transports like BMPs effective against small arms fire which are great in putting down citizen uprisings but Wagner have tanks. To engage Wagner with pure infantry and small arms that Rosgvardiya are equipped with would be suicidal so no shit they're just standing aside at the moment.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:00 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

When Wagner has gotten involved in civil wars elsewhere, have they tended to be an in-and-out strike force, or has their involvement tended to grind along for many years?
posted by clawsoon at 8:12 AM on June 24, 2023

A lot of the Rosgardia vehicles I've seen aren't even BMP-level; they're angry looking riot control vans. They don't mount any heavy weapons. The people manning them carry submachine guns.

There are smaller, heavier forces embedded within Rosgardia that are legacy units with more serious counterinsurgency capabilities. Formerly OMON and SOBR, I don't know if they have new names now. Or if they're already forward deployed in the war; they were definitely involved in the initial invasion last year.

I've read claims that there are plans to blow bridges over the Oka River if the advance gets that far; but you'd think that would have a pretty destabilizing effect on public confidence (and damage to the infrastructure and economy). Bombing the rebel units on the highway is probably better than that, if VKS is willing to do it. So maybe they're not.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:14 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

I honestly think Vadym Denysenko is correct when he says Prigozhin has 24-48 hours until the system recovers.

I also think he's correct when he says that Prigozhin has given Putin a dilemma rather than a problem. He's forced to choose between Shoigu and Prigozhin and both choices are bad. If Shoigu is ousted then being a obedient lapdog isn't enough anymore and the Silovniks will notice. Putin will be on borrowed time at that point. If Prigozhin is killed it will unleash a wave of terror upon the Silovniks as whatever security resources Putin does control will start going after not only vocal dissenters but anyone with even the hint of suspicion and shit gets real ugly then.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:17 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Yeah, didn't a bunch of the slightly more elite Rosgvardiya units get destroyed invading Ukraine? They might be a bit unwilling to risk themselves again...
posted by BungaDunga at 8:19 AM on June 24, 2023

The Kadyrovites also suffered heavy losses on their entry to Ukraine - another bunch that’s better at war crimes and posing than fighting an enemy that fights back, so fairly likely they will repeat that performance or just find some non-Wagner Russians to terrorize.
posted by Artw at 8:21 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

They might be a bit unwilling to risk themselves again...

I suppose they also may be occupied securing bases and command posts, and getting ready to lock down Moscow if martial law does have to be declared. Which, since it was denied, is a strong possibility.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:28 AM on June 24, 2023

@ChristoGrozev (10 hrs ago):

A surreal video. Prigozhin negotiating in Rostov with MoD's deputy ninister (left) and GRU's deputy chief Alexeev. Tells them he wants to Shoigu and Gerassimov handed over, and until he gets them Wagner will occupy Rostov and march on to Moscow.

posted by spamandkimchi at 8:29 AM on June 24, 2023

BBC News just reported that the mayor of Moscow just issued an emergency warning urging everyone to stay inside, because of how close Prigozhin's men are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:35 AM on June 24, 2023

6 min ago from the Moscow Times live coverage:

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has ordered Monday, June 26 to be a non-working day for all Muscovites except for local authorities, the military-industrial complex and city services.

“Dear citizens, a counterterrorist operation regime has been declared in Moscow. The situation is difficult,” Sobyanin said in a Telegram post.

“I ask you to refrain from traveling around the city,” Sobyanin added.

posted by spamandkimchi at 8:35 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Back in May the Russian 'partisans' Freedom of Russia Legion began border incursions into Belgorod Oblast. For a while they were like Mario with the Star, popping in and out of Belgorod for days at a time unopposed.

Prigozhin huffily said he'd send his forces to hold the border because the Russian army were clearly failing. As usual he has to begrudgingly take over from the incompetent Russian army! This ... didn't happen.

Here's the thing: those Russian partisans - they're far-right ultra-nationalists. I see this is neatly elided in reports, they're on the good side, so let's not talk about their neo-nazi roots. But it's there. And they are anti-Putin.

It doesn't seem impossible that Wagner troops were moved to Belgorod under cover of securing the border, but really to take positions closer to Moscow. They do seem to have gone from Rostov to Voronezh, 483km, too fast.

If they were in Belgorod they didn't confront the partisans. They didn't fight. They also happen to share the same interests. Funny that.
posted by adept256 at 8:37 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Kadrov's not exactly loyal - he may take his independent Chechnya and go home, seeing as how weak the Russian response to armed insurrection has been.
posted by meowzilla at 8:39 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Where's Solovyov going? [vlog from the highway]

Petersburg, with Putin? [flight track of RU govt transport]

@DarthPutin:

I don’t need ammo. I need a ride.

posted by snuffleupagus at 8:39 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

It's very likely that this is also a Ukrainian operation, because Wagner was said to be in direct talks with Ukrainian intelligence when the Discord leaks exposed Wagner's offer to betray Russian troops in exchange for Bakmut. It probably made the decision to revolt for them, but any Ukrainian strategy would have developed the option to buy the mercenary enemy if they were for sale. Wagner is always fighting for shares of the profits. The average Russian only appears to be brainwashed for Putin but like anyone who equates fear with respect, they secretly hope a loud former street food vendor will take over to make them proud again. In the big man feudal order, loyalty can turn fast with a credible replacement who makes the current thief in charge look weak and only out for himself. Western sanctions achieved a great thing when they painted Putin's inner circle, because if this coup is pulled off within the current plans made, by paying people to stand down for a few days, then Putin's inner circle will all be dead or arrested by next week with nowhere to go. This would not be the first time in memory that black marketeers hijacked the entire Russian economy for themselves. My hope is that the truth will soon be revealed about Trump's major support from Putin.
posted by Brian B. at 8:40 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Good Morning America!
It's weird to read the comments at the beginning of this thread with the hindsight we have now. They are very similar to what all the experts have been saying on my TV all day, having to eat their words every hour.

This is happening very rapidly. Harald74 said above it's almost impossible to get a military convoy to move more than 40KM an hour, and that is also what I have learnt, but obviously it is not impossible. If the Wagner march has support within the MoD forces, they are not limited by logistics. The fact that Russian forces attacked a Russian oil depot seems to indicate that the local authorities are not loyal to Moscow, regardless of what they say on official TV.
posted by mumimor at 8:45 AM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

(Maple Cocaine, Bluesky): "I bet other countries are gonna think twice now before letting a hot dog vendor amass a private army recruited from prisons."
posted by Wordshore at 8:50 AM on June 24, 2023 [29 favorites]

One big problem for Russia is that they have fought the war using explicit Russian nationalist propaganda. That makes it very difficult for them to pivot to Russians firing at Russians.
posted by srboisvert at 8:54 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Recent WSJ documentary on Wagner, Shadow Men: Inside Russia’s Secret War Company

Thanks, the primroses were over; that's an extremely informative video - 40 minutes long but conveniently divided into 8 sections. For anyone short on time, the 4th section, "A New Business Model in Syria," is a good place to start, including the contracts Assad signed with Wagner guaranteeing it an ongoing annual 25% of all revenue from any oil and natural gas fields it recaptured, as well as discussion of the group's gleeful use of torture and brutality. The next section is about Wagner exporting that model to multiple countries in Africa.

Well worth a viewing.
posted by mediareport at 8:54 AM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

What do you think are the chances this is all smoke and mirrors? Knowing Putin, I wouldn’t be shocked if this whole thing was being staged.
posted by panama joe at 8:55 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

There is real wishful thinking in this thread.

"because of how close Prigozhin's men are."

They are 400 kilometers away.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 8:57 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

That makes it very difficult for them to pivot to Russians firing at Russians.

No no, the opposite is true. Every fascist state does this, it's part of control. Internal enemies, real or imagined, are a part of structural fascism.
posted by adept256 at 8:57 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

They are 400 kilometers away.

Source for that claim ?
posted by Pendragon at 8:59 AM on June 24, 2023

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped#block-64970b598f08c081c5bb79fc

"The governor of Russia’s Lipetsk province says the Wagner mercenary group has entered the region, AP reports. The Lipetsk region is about 360km (225 miles) south of Moscow and much closer to the capital than Rostov-on-Don, where Wagner forces appeared during the night."
posted by Pyrogenesis at 9:01 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

What do you think are the chances this is all smoke and mirrors?

More and more inclined to think the mad fucker is actually going for it, TBH.
posted by Artw at 9:01 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

I checked the distance between Rostov and Voronezh, it's 483km. As I said, there was likely some pre-positioning because that's impossibly fast.
posted by adept256 at 9:02 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

There is real wishful thinking in this thread

Upsetting when the tanks are pointed the wrong way, eh?
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:04 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

It seems like it might end up as a nasty punishment for Putin, who was first betrayed by Shoigu, who said that he would modernize the army and then forgot to actually do it, and Prigozhin, who then had to be relied on and turned on him. Even if Putin manages to catch Prigozhin and hang him from the highest tree, it shows weakness and well, where are they supposed to get more mercenaries?
posted by kingdead at 9:04 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

What do you think are the chances this is all smoke and mirrors? Knowing Putin, I wouldn’t be shocked if this whole thing was being staged.


The chances would be small. Staged to what end? Some kind of convoluted Ukraine exit strategy? All it would cost him is the appearance of complete incompetence and weakness.
posted by 2N2222 at 9:06 AM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

What do you think are the chances this is all smoke and mirrors? Knowing Putin, I wouldn’t be shocked if this whole thing was being staged.

Again, what would be in it for Prigozhin?
posted by Flunkie at 9:06 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Upsetting when the tanks are pointed the wrong way, eh?

I live in Estonia. The closest Russian border crossing is about 80 kilometers away. I have lived my entire life under the shadow of Russian aggression. I have friends who have joined the defence force just to be guerilla fighters against Russia.

Don't imply I'm a tankie.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 9:09 AM on June 24, 2023 [71 favorites]

Feel like I'm picking up strong "Blackwater has taken control of Boston and is currently in the New York City area on their intended march to Washington; so, nothing meaningful has happened. Is that correct?" vibes here.
posted by Flunkie at 9:11 AM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

The Afghan National Army is looking pretty good right now compared to the rapid collapse of the Russians. They at least managed to hang on for a month or so.
posted by interogative mood at 9:12 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

And from far out in left field, what if this is part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
posted by jim in austin at 9:13 AM on June 24, 2023

That makes it very difficult for them to pivot to Russians firing at Russians.

No no, the opposite is true. Every fascist state does this, it's part of control. Internal enemies, real or imagined, are a part of structural fascism.

Sure but they usually have a way to "other" the people they want shot. Hard to do that when it is your only ostensibly militarily successful unit in the last year plus of a nationalist war and they have been lionized in the popular domestic media.
posted by srboisvert at 9:17 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Less speculating and more links, please. :)
posted by mediareport at 9:17 AM on June 24, 2023 [18 favorites]

Don't imply I'm a tankie.

Apologies. You're posting the same sentiment I'm seeing from them on my timeline.

Whatever this thing is, it seized control of Rostov and advanced halfway to Moscow overnight, which is now in the process of imposing something resembling martial law by a different name. Wagner is posting videos of senior generals in their company, or their custody.

I understand getting near Moscow is different than getting into Moscow, but this is pretty dramatic for a days worth of events.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:18 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Mod note: Couple more comments removed. Please avoid snark and commentary about other users, please and thank you.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 9:18 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

(Getting a military convoy to move at a sustained rate of more than 40 km/h, even on a motorway, is not really possible)

Except that it kind of is possible.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:20 AM on June 24, 2023

@anneapplebaum
did Wagner fighters stop for coffee on their way into the Rostov MOD headquarters?https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1672493492579303424
posted by srboisvert at 9:22 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Sure but they usually have a way to "other" the people they want shot. Hard to do that when it is your only ostensibly militarily successful unit in the last year plus of a nationalist war and they have been lionized in the popular domestic media.

Examples that immediately jump to mind are the Night of the Long Knives and Lin Biao.
posted by clawsoon at 9:22 AM on June 24, 2023

Staged to what end?

Not sure. Maybe lure Ukraine into thinking Russia is suffering a crisis? Get them to attack at an inopportune time? It could all be a trap.

Honestly I’m disinclined to believe anything Putin or Prigozhin have to say. They’re both famous for being masters of disinformation.
posted by panama joe at 9:25 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

"Lure Ukraine into thinking Russia is suffering a crisis" by luring the people of Russia into thinking Russia is suffering a crisis?
posted by Flunkie at 9:27 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Get them to attack at an inopportune time

Ukraine has already launched its long-planned offensive!
posted by BungaDunga at 9:28 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Medvedev out there now saying that the whole world is in danger from Prigozhin because that bandit can't be allowed to get his hands on the nukes--wait, is he asking for help? From who? Ridiculous.
posted by kingdead at 9:29 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

@OSINTtechnical: Roadblocks being constructed in Moscow Oblast.

Impromptu roadblock broken through somewhere on the highway. Claimed to be 300KM (~190mi) but could be 400KM.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:30 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Honestly I’m disinclined to believe anything Putin or Prigozhin have to say. They’re both famous for being masters of disinformation.

People spent a long time totally sure that Putin's threats against Ukraine were just hardball negotiation. Turns out his threats to invade were entirely serious! Sometimes, real things happen, even when the actors are all malicious liars.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:32 AM on June 24, 2023 [16 favorites]

Can we easy up on the negative insinuations towards people in the food service industries. Nothing wrong with being a caterer, street vendor or hawking hot dogs and many of those people are independent business people who are adept at logistics and supply chain management.
posted by Mitheral at 9:38 AM on June 24, 2023 [37 favorites]

My uninformed suspicion is that Putin is sick/weakened (I don’t think they can hide dead), and Prigozhin is making a go for it. I say this because it seems too weak of a response from Putin, he seems content to see his minions fighting each other but has never given any inclination of being a guy who gives you second chances if make a go at him.

I don’t think it’ll end up being a 12d chess move, super clever misdirection plan, this is not a Tom Clancy novel, time will tell. Hopefully control of the nuclear arsenal remains … well I don’t want any of those involved in control….
posted by WaterAndPixels at 9:39 AM on June 24, 2023

Ironically, given their past record. Ukrainian armed forces would be the best bet to help Mr Putin get away with this horrible mess.
posted by nicolin at 9:42 AM on June 24, 2023

did Wagner fighters stop for coffee on their way into the Rostov MOD headquarters?

They also seem to be throwing the shaka sign (🤙) but I suppose it means something else to them?
posted by traveler_ at 9:43 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Meduza: "Two sources close to the administration have shared what’s happening in the Kremlin." Basically: they underestimated Prigozhin and "slept through" the buildup, and were still hoping to negotiate until shortly before Putin's speech. As of publication 3.5 hours ago, they thought the army/FSB would stop Wagner but not necessarily before some forces get through to Moscow, and even if it's contained it will lead to further repression in Russia.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 9:45 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

I’m currently with my family in Stykkishólmur, a small village on the Snæfellsnes peninsula in Iceland. There’s a festival and the town is full of tourists from all over the world. I’ve heard the word “Wagner” spoken in very many languages today. The whole world is on edge right now.

Of course people closer to events are even more worried. We’ve been hearing from friends and family in Finland and they’re having a hard time thinking about anything but what’s going on next door. It’s strange not to be in Finland right now, but simultaneously comforting to be far away from Russia.
posted by Kattullus at 9:46 AM on June 24, 2023 [56 favorites]

It would take a very brave and large army led by a well-known general to stand up to the battle-hardened units of Wagner, who fear nobody except Ukrainian units. It's all about confidence. Putin will likely be sitting in St. Petersburg, in an office designed to look like he's in Moscow (according to a recent defector in charge of masking his travel). When Russian ground troops realize that Putin is not in the Kremlin it will signal a general surrender to anyone defending Moscow. I can't even see an obvious way for Putin to win because he's not a leader, only a weasel who rose to power by reorganizing the secret police. If Putin had such a great general to defend him, that general would then be in charge if he succeeded.
posted by Brian B. at 9:49 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

@Kattullus, stay well and all the best to your family/kin
posted by elkevelvet at 9:52 AM on June 24, 2023 [12 favorites]

Rosgardia deployment in Moscow.

Raid of Wagner's offices in Petersburg.

There's a claim from a telegram channel that the regular forces have lost 6 helicopters and an IL-22 which can have a number of roles.

Video of Wagner SAM team engaging KA-52, which evades the missile.

4hr old Rybar map estimated ~350km.

There are some phone videos of fixed wing attack and fighter aircraft over Rostov and Voronezh, but not of them engaging anything.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:53 AM on June 24, 2023

NYT update:

Valerie Hopkins
June 24, 2023, 12:30 p.m. ET
27 minutes ago

Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, a Russian businessman who has sought to unite groups opposing Putin, called on Russians opposed to the regime to arm themselves.

“Now we see that only armed people can resist the dictatorship,” Khodorkovsky wrote on his Telegram channel. “Now there is a small window of opportunity when there is chaos on the streets and the security forces are not in control of the situation.”


June 24, 2023, 12:30 p.m. ET27 minutes ago
27 minutes ago
Traci Carl
He said the dramatic standoff would likely result in further repression.

“If you see the strength in yourself in the future to become those armed people who will oppose Putin or Prigozhin, then it’s time to arm yourself,” he said. “Prigozhin is not our friend and not even our ally. He is a bandit and a war criminal. But his rebellion is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and there won’t be another like it for a long time.”
posted by Sublimity at 9:57 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Meduza: "Two sources close to the administration have shared what’s happening in the Kremlin." Basically: they underestimated Prigozhin and "slept through" the buildup

As did a lot of folks, apparently including Meduza, who posted a story on 6/19 called "The mystery of Evgeny Prigozhin Why does Putin let Wagner Group’s founder make statements that would land anyone else in court?" that included the following:

There’s an inner circle of people who are absolutely loyal to [Putin] and who are already bound to him by blood. Prigozhin is one of them. People from this circle can afford a lot more than everyone else, including any wayward thoughts. This is, first of all, because the president has no doubt about their personal loyalty, and, secondly, because nobody can touch them...

At the same time, it’s fairly difficult for the people close to Putin to eliminate one another. Defense Minister Shoigu can’t do anything about Prigozhin, and Prigozhin can’t do anything about Shoigu...

This isn't a criticism; it's simply another measure of just how much Prigozhin appears to have surprised everyone with this move.
posted by mediareport at 10:03 AM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

My fantasy at this point is that at some point Prigozhin, Putin, and Kadyrov all get close enough together that their collective suckitude passes the Schwarzschild suckitude radius and they collapse into a black hole of suckitude, sucking all nearby suckitude into itself.
posted by Flunkie at 10:09 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

Can we constrain this thread to news and grounded analysis please?
posted by argybarg at 10:12 AM on June 24, 2023 [30 favorites]

All available evidence points to this being an attempted coup. This includes both on and off the record comments from various Western officials (Including the White House) with access to much better sources than social media. The idea this is some kind of secret commie triple bluff to trap Ukraine is ridiculous. This kind of fantastical speculation is how we got QAnon and all the other insanity out there right now. People claiming the titan sub implosion was a CIA hit to bury the story of Hunter Biden’s guilty plea. That the victims of a mass shooting are just crisis actor. And so on.
posted by interogative mood at 10:17 AM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Honestly from the point of view of "Russia is across the border" a tasteful quantity of memes are much needed relief.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:21 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

An army marches on its stomach. Prigozhin has a long history running successful catering and grocery businesses.

Putin and Shoigu's track record at logistics over the last two years has been laughable.

Personally, my money's on the caterer here.
posted by automatronic at 10:21 AM on June 24, 2023 [20 favorites]

Can we constrain this thread to news and grounded analysis please?

I'm guessing this was in response to my dumb joke immediately preceding it?

I'll refrain from further comment along these lines, but I would like to say first that I honestly hate this part of Metafilter culture. If all you want a dead-serious no-nonsense source of and aggregator of news, there are plenty of excellent professional sources out there. Meanwhile this thread has a lot of it too (at least the "aggregator" part), and that's obviously great, but I really fail to grasp the whole point of "Let's make this thread into nothing but a poor knockoff of those professional sources and aggregators".

Let people blow off a little steam once in a while, sheesh.

Again, I'll now refrain from saying anything further on this.
posted by Flunkie at 10:24 AM on June 24, 2023 [91 favorites]

bbc reporting that the belarussian leaders have negotiated a pause in the conflict - have no idea what's really going on or how this would work
posted by pyramid termite at 10:24 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

BBC reporting that that Prigozhin has agreed to halt the movement of his forces, per an announcement from the Belorusian government which may be acting as a broker/intermediary.
posted by nubs at 10:26 AM on June 24, 2023

Huh.

Steve Herman (VOA):
State-run media in #Russia now reporting #Belarus President Lukashenko, with Putin's blessing, is negotiating with Wagner Group chief Prigozhin.
posted by Artw at 10:26 AM on June 24, 2023

three minutes ago from the Guardian

The office of Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko just announced that Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted a proposal to “stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions,” the president’s office said, with similar reporting in Russian news outlets.

The statement said that Vladimir Putin briefed Lukashenko in the morning and, with his approval, Lukashenko held negotiating talks with Prigozhin.

“Negotiations continued throughout the day. As a result, they came to agreements on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia,” the statement read.

emphasis mine
posted by philip-random at 10:31 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

it may well be that the drive to moscow was a bluff - prigozhin's already gained control of the hq and the supply lines that are vital for the continuation for the war

this means that he can probably wreck russia's prospects for the war
posted by pyramid termite at 10:31 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Christo Grozev: "Russian air force have been bombing Russian bridges today...to prevent Wagner's march on to Moscow"
posted by BungaDunga at 10:31 AM on June 24, 2023

Could this be linked to the large amount of money seized in St petersburg ?
posted by nicolin at 10:32 AM on June 24, 2023

Multiple twitter accounts monitoring Telegram are saying Girkin posted that Wagner is in Barabanovo, south of the Oka river. 135km from Moscow.

More videos are being posted of driving by Rosgardia checkpoints in Moscow, some with actual BMPs, but no tanks.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:32 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

a lotta realpolitik going down about now, I suspect
posted by philip-random at 10:33 AM on June 24, 2023

I’m not sure what conditions would make me feel comfortable negotiating a settlement with someone known for his thoroughness in murdering his enemies.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 10:34 AM on June 24, 2023 [12 favorites]

Could this be linked to the large amount of money seized in St petersburg ?

What is this referring to, please?
posted by Flunkie at 10:34 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

BBC reporting Prigozhin has now released an audio statement confirming that his forces will return to bases.
posted by nubs at 10:35 AM on June 24, 2023

I guess it will be interesting to see what Prighozin wants, if he doesn't want to be tsar, and if he thinks he can still be friends with Putin after this stunt.
posted by rikschell at 10:35 AM on June 24, 2023

NYT:

In an audio statement, Yevgeny Prigozhin said he and his Wagner forces were is “turning around our columns and returning to field camps according to plan.”
posted by Flunkie at 10:37 AM on June 24, 2023

what the hell is happening
posted by gwint at 10:37 AM on June 24, 2023 [16 favorites]

I’m not sure what conditions would make me feel comfortable negotiating a settlement with someone known for his thoroughness in murdering his enemies.

That was my first thought for the audio memo coming out. I don’t see how he lives out the month in the country, and his odds outside don’t seem much better.
posted by adamsc at 10:37 AM on June 24, 2023

I’m not sure what conditions would make me feel comfortable negotiating a settlement with someone known for his thoroughness in murdering his enemies.

This refers to all three, I guess? Putin, Prigozhin & Lukashenko?

Jury of peers and all that
posted by chavenet at 10:38 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

They wanted to disband Wagner. We traveled 200 km without reaching Moscow.
Now is the moment when blood can be spilled.
Realizing that blood may be spilled now, we turn the columns and go in the opposite direction to the field camps,
— Prigozhin's statement
posted by adept256 at 10:40 AM on June 24, 2023

Could this be linked to the large amount of money seized in St petersburg ?

What is this referring to, please?

I believe nicolin is referencing recent FSB seizures.
posted by the primroses were over at 10:40 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

None of this makes any sense anymore. There's something missing from all the information given. For what reason do you take back crossing the Rubicon?
posted by Philipschall at 10:43 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

pure speculation, but maybe Putin's agreed to a timeline toward stepping down ... ?
posted by philip-random at 10:45 AM on June 24, 2023

I admittedly don't know anything about anything, but launching a coup against Putin seems like a "win or die trying" situation. What could possibly make him stop?
posted by Mavri at 10:45 AM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

Suspect that Prigozhin was expecting more open support from others and it didn't happen
posted by nubs at 10:46 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

We don't know what Putin's agreed to give Prigozhin.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:47 AM on June 24, 2023

One hypothesis is that Putin agreed to can Shoigu et al and to rescind the order that Wagner merge with the Russian military.
posted by brambleboy at 10:47 AM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

The notion that Ukraine is involved in this is baffling.

They aren't going to trust or cooperate with a warlord who has inflicted untold misery and destruction on their country.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 10:47 AM on June 24, 2023 [12 favorites]

Any kind of deal just encourages anybody with leverage to try to use it to extract concessions from Putin, doesn't it? Not that there are any good options, even a fight Wagner can't win does huge damage to Russia materially, psychologically, reputationally... but negotiating at all causes a whole host of other problems.
posted by jason_steakums at 10:47 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Again he’s neither dropped out of a window or expects to drop out of a window and all of that is increasingly bizarre. All of this seems incredibly damaging to Putin, and seems like it should pretty much put Ukraine victory permanently out of reach.

But this was just contract renegotiation and they’re all cool now?

Wheels within wheels etc…
posted by Artw at 10:48 AM on June 24, 2023

Or said he agreed to give. Prigozhin must be holding onto something quite dear in the south to think he has any hope of actually getting whatever they agreed on.
posted by adamsc at 10:48 AM on June 24, 2023

maybe Putin's agreed to a timeline toward stepping down

I would be very surprised if anyone would seriously take Putin at his word on this, especially under the current conditions. "Yes, just turn your army away from me, and I promise I will step down, and definitely not have someone surreptitiously inject you with polonium."
posted by Flunkie at 10:49 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Mod note: Folks, please wrap up the personal derail and if you'd like to discuss how MeFi treats the 1% can I please remind you we have a MeTa thread already in progress? Thank you.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 10:50 AM on June 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

prigozhin's already gained control of the hq and the supply lines that are vital for the continuation for the war
this means that he can probably wreck russia's prospects for the war

Or continue it more to his liking.
posted by ctmf at 10:50 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Wagner Telegram denies any deal with Putin or Belarus. It sounds like Lukashenko just made some stuff up.
posted by interogative mood at 10:51 AM on June 24, 2023

Prigozhin must be holding onto something quite dear in the south to think he has any hope of actually getting whatever they agreed on.

Maybe the "field camps" Wagner is returning to from their march towards Moscow includes their newest camp, Rostov, and he's not releasing the supply lines yet.
posted by jason_steakums at 10:52 AM on June 24, 2023

Reports of a successful negotiation may be exaggerated
posted by otsebyatina at 10:52 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

pure speculation, but maybe Putin's agreed to a timeline toward stepping down ... ?

Other speculation, this charade could do two things: 1) smoke out anyone willing to have a coup in the first place; 2) invite Ukraine to making moves they might be more cautious of otherwise.

I have no idea what the hell is going on.
posted by mazola at 10:52 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

That quote I just posted - I got that off Denys Davydov's telegram channel. He's a fairly reliable youtuber but like the rest of us following this fast moving situation mistakes will be made. I'm sorry, I will learn from this.
posted by adept256 at 10:56 AM on June 24, 2023

"We are only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country, in order to bring them to justice. As soon as we have accomplished our mission, we expect that the situation will return to normalcy.”

That's from an article regarding the 2017 coup in Zimbabwe. The reports we are receiving right now from Russia are conflicting not just because of the fog of war but also because creating a narrative of legitimacy is how to win a coup.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Did Pregozhin just renegotiate his contract? Did this basically amount to a labor action?
posted by mikesch at 10:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

The infowar is definitely playing out, one way or another

via @Gerashchenko_en, an hour ago

Moscow residents reportedly started receiving phone calls from, allegedly, Wagner PMC - they are invited to "support Wagnerites and come out into the streets" - Russian media.

posted by snuffleupagus at 10:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Panfilova said she had not yet seen anything strange-looking out of her big window in a high-rise in the heart of Moscow. The city was supposed to be ready for the huge annual weekend of graduation balls. “Just imagine how many teens are pissed off, they are talking on TikTok and other social media right now—many girls have been preparing their dresses, expecting the party tonight,” she said.

“For now, the graduation balls have been delayed for just one week, moving around Moscow has been partly restricted.”

As far away as Nizhny Novgorod, 300 miles east of Moscow, word of the balls being shut down was making waves. “My friends in Moscow say that the graduation balls have been cancelled this weekend,” said Krasnova. “This really is a huge crisis that nobody could have expected.”

posted by away for regrooving at 10:57 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Pretty amazing that Belarus announced a deal to defuse the coup in Russia almost an hour ago, and the Kremlin has said absolutely nothing about it

via max seddon linked above
posted by TWinbrook8 at 11:00 AM on June 24, 2023

Reports of a successful negotiation may be exaggerated

What is the provenance of that, um, screenshot from an anime president of a retweet from someone going by the name "Oryx" of a tweet from "Militaryland.net" of a screenshot of a... Telegram? ... from "Evgeny Prigogine. Officially."?

Not trying to be snarky - well, maybe a little, but I'm genuinely asking. I don't know that "Evgeny Prigogine. Officially." is actually an official Prigozhin account, and the chain upwards from there doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence for me.
posted by Flunkie at 11:06 AM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

Russia did release a deep fake to try to convince Ukraine to stand down at the start of this war, so hacking Wagner telegram isn’t impossible. At the same time BBC tends to be pretty cautious and they are claiming it’s true. We have to wait and see.
posted by interogative mood at 11:09 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

NYT hasn’t backed off their report that Prigozhin says he’s turning around.
posted by brambleboy at 11:11 AM on June 24, 2023

Oryx is the well known OSINT outfit that tallies photographically verified losses of equipment. A screenshot of a telegram post could be faked whether or not that's actually Prigo's account.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:11 AM on June 24, 2023

No you're right Flunkie. Pretty sure that's fake. Finally getting around to having coffee that ought to help my brain parse things 😑
posted by otsebyatina at 11:13 AM on June 24, 2023

I have to admit I miss the days of letting professional news organizations do their jobs. Yes, it can be exciting feeling like you are getting every report the second it is released, but unverified information often turns out to be wrong. And it doesn't matter if we have a minute-by-minute account if we aren't very close by. Wrong information based on twitter reports & speculation can do untold damage and very little good.
posted by rikschell at 11:19 AM on June 24, 2023 [20 favorites]

You can absolutely choose to follow BBC, NYT, etc., and not be here!
posted by Meatbomb at 11:25 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

MetaFilter: You can absolutely choose to follow BBC, NYT, etc., and not be here!
posted by mazola at 11:25 AM on June 24, 2023 [27 favorites]

It's not immediately clear to me who they are, what their affiliations are, where they're getting this information, or whether we should regard them as a reliable source on this subject.

We should not.
posted by y2karl at 11:25 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Wrong information based on twitter reports & speculation can do untold damage and very little good.

I mean, I guess if I were in charge of something and taking some tangible wrong action based on that speculation? Nothing bad happens if I'm wrong on my back patio for an hour or so. Especially since nobody is really taking these things as proven fact, we all know there's a "but I could be wrong" caveat to ALL this "information."
posted by ctmf at 11:28 AM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

@maxseddon in that tweet chain is FT's Moscow bureau chief. That's the pink newspaper in the airport newsstand. Or was, not sure if they still print it. Who has now posted this; which appears to be positive coverage of Wagner standing down in Rostov, seen on state media and Wagner telegram channels.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:30 AM on June 24, 2023

I'm thinking about people wrongly accused in cases like the Boston Marathon bombing or Sandy Hook as it was happening. I agree, it's hard to look away from the firehose, and I don't mean to criticize, just that the whole multiple verified sources of information was a good thing, but now there's pressure to report on unverified twitter links and that degrades knowledge for everybody.
posted by rikschell at 11:33 AM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

The "ELINT News" retweet of the maxseddon portion of the screenshot by an anime president is not about the claim that I was questioning from the rest of the president's screenshot.
posted by Flunkie at 11:34 AM on June 24, 2023

You can absolutely choose to follow BBC, NYT, etc., and not be here!

And my get news completely unfiltered? No thank you.

Seriously, most of the thread has been helpful for disseminating some of what might be happening and from sources I wouldn't have otherwise considered. I appreciate it.
posted by VTX at 11:36 AM on June 24, 2023 [15 favorites]

the whole multiple verified sources of information was a good thing, but now there's pressure to report on unverified twitter links and that degrades knowledge for everybody.

It just makes me distrust news that is too recent. Which makes me not bother with news, until it's a day or more old. It's funny because that makes it seem like I live in the dark ages, but it's basically how everybody used to get their news. Now instead, news is something we participate in, which is probably why everybody is so fucking stressed all the time: newspapers and tv were sit-back activities, and now they're sit-forward activities. It's exhausting.
posted by nushustu at 11:37 AM on June 24, 2023 [28 favorites]

I’m seeing multiple independently-worded reports that the FSB is raiding the homes of the families of Wagner soldiers. If true, I have to wonder what effect this might have of Prig’s stand down (which is real enough that there’s multiple videos of Wagner troops leaving Rostov).
posted by Quasirandom at 11:39 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Nothing bad happens if I'm wrong on my back patio for an hour or so.

But what if instead of being on your back patio, you're out there overthrowing the capitalist system or whatever?

Speaking somewhat seriously, I find I like my life way more since I consciously decided to stop following breaking news over a year ago

(he said as he commented on a thread that was all about being right on top of breaking news ... but this is an exception for me these days. And anyway I'm just waiting for a video edit to render)
posted by philip-random at 11:49 AM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

I heard about this last night, and when I woke up and checked the news, it all seemed very diffuse. So I came here.

I'm definitely in the "don't follow current news, let it sit for a little while before consuming" camp: I'm trying to take all of this with a grain of salt, and see how it shakes down a couple days later. All the current news seems too "fresh" and confused.

I don't know what would be worse: Prigozhin or Putin. It seems like two somewhat equally horrific outcomes. Maybe more chaotic and bloody if Prigozhin were somehow to be in power, which he won't be.
posted by not_on_display at 11:50 AM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

At the moment the puzzle pieces are not fitting together. Prigozhin even just saying that the Ukraine invasion was under false pretenses was damn near a suicide note. And taking Rostov, then hightailing it toward Moscow? That surely sealed his fate. This is probably the single biggest humiliation of Putin since he gained control of Russia. Does Prigozhin think he's gonna just let that slide?

I don't get it. Even if Prigozhin got concessions, that only deepens Putin's embarrassment. Right now the numbers aren't adding up, and I'm waiting to see if more info over the coming hours results in this making any sense at all because right now it's like people are trying to unring a bell.
posted by tclark at 11:56 AM on June 24, 2023 [18 favorites]

In everything I read Prigozhin never said anything bad about Putin personally, but that the direct underlings were lying and causing the war to be lost. I will be interesting to see if something happens to the bad underlings.
posted by sammyo at 12:00 PM on June 24, 2023

My only thought is this is Prigozhin and Putin trying to flush out rats? Or Prigozhin thought there was more mass support.

Maybe his wager he was important was correct (for now). So Putin can't hang him, so Putin says "you're safe for now buddy"

I say potato, you say potato - lets call the whole thing off.
posted by symbioid at 12:00 PM on June 24, 2023

I’m curious what the average citizen in Russia is hearing about all of this. I know some sources are being blocked but what are various news sources that are available saying?
posted by misterpatrick at 12:03 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I don't know what would be worse: Prigozhin or Putin.

The correct answer is: Lukashenko
posted by chavenet at 12:05 PM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Quasirandom: I’m seeing multiple independently-worded reports that the FSB is raiding the homes of the families of Wagner soldiers. If true, I have to wonder what effect this might have of Prig’s stand down (which is real enough that there’s multiple videos of Wagner troops leaving Rostov).

This might be the only plausible thing I've read all day. Doesn't mean it's true, but it seems like exactly the kind of response Putin would have prepared for anyone who might think to challenge him.
posted by clawsoon at 12:06 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Lurking here mostly, but chiming in to say these breaking news threads often follow the same script – lots of misc ideas, speculation, confident statements from afar, then new updates that throw everything out the window (no pun intended) and a lot of folks scratching their heads. I have learned to start from a position of head-scratching – uncertainty is the only certainty here. I come back often to this, from Ursula K. LeGuin:

When action grows unprofitable, gather information; when information grows unprofitable, sleep

posted by wemayfreeze at 12:15 PM on June 24, 2023 [54 favorites]

I’m curious what the average citizen in Russia is hearing about all of this. I know some sources are being blocked but what are various news sources that are available saying?

Well, they certainly got Putin's speech, but he didn't call out any persons or organizations by name, so it might have been quite confusing.
posted by Harald74 at 12:17 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Prigozhin claims to have turned around to avoid bloodshed, but apparently the air crews of the plane and six helicopters shot down doesn't count.
posted by Harald74 at 12:19 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I’m curious what the average citizen in Russia is hearing about all of this. I know some sources are being blocked but what are various news sources that are available saying?

I've seen a little from the Moscow Times (which I am not familiar with, but which seems to have a pretty good not-a-puppet-outfit reputation), on their live feed:

Moscow residents in the city center described a mix of confusion and unease Saturday evening before Prigozhin called off Wagner's journey toward the capital.

"I'm constantly, every minute, monitoring the news, and my friends are too. I think everything is peaceful for now because giving away someplace like Lipetsk is one thing, but when they reach Moscow, it won't be easily given up. The key moment will be when they approach Moscow," said Muscovite Diana, who declined to provide her last name.

"It's very unsettling, and I believe it shows the weakness of the authorities, that all of this was allowed to happen because if the power apparatus were strong, something like this would never have happened," she told The Moscow Times.

"I'm afraid to comment. Honestly, I'm looking for answers myself. I spoke with my mother today, and I'm personally curious about what's happening and how. Also, Prigozhin is an interesting figure…I'm still processing it. I've talked to friends who are currently at war, and they also don't really know anything," said Maxim, who also declined to share his last name.

posted by Flunkie at 12:22 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

The only reason I can think of re: why Prigozhin might back down and not expect a sudden case of windowflu the next day is if he has control of a nuclear weapon. It would also explain why Putin shifted from one major population center to another (mass human shields so that a decapitation strike confers instant national pariah status), rather than lighting out for the countryside on his armored train.

And nukes on a deadman switch means Prigozhin can act with relative confidence that his own safety is relatively secure and agreements will be mostly upheld in spirit. It really boils down to: do you have access to strategic weapons and men loyal enough to launch against your enemies after your death? Kadyrov seems like the only other Russian strongman potentially capable of answering that question with a “yes.” It’s not clear that Putin himself, despite his total control of the state apparatus, can answer the “after your death” part in the affirmative.

Pure speculation, but I’m used to looking at interactions between nations through the lens of nuclear weapons = actual sovereign status, and everything else is just people being polite because military conquest is a major hassle and bad for trade. The only agreements that countries expect to be honored when push really comes to shove are those between nuclear powers. And I can’t help but notice that mirrors a lot of the power structures and behaviors we’re seeing at more of a military general/defense minister level, here. So, maybe C&C / launch authority of Russian strategic weapons is just way more federated than most of us realized or are comfortable acknowledging?
posted by Ryvar at 12:37 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Russia can't even do a military coup successfully? Failed state.
posted by UN at 12:37 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

Wagner was supposed to be brought under the control of the government, but after this I suppose they remain their own institution. Back to business!
posted by kingdead at 12:38 PM on June 24, 2023

"Let's pretend this never happened, and let us not speak of it again" is not a sustainable plan. But at the moment, it looks like the one they've decided to go with. I expect this plan to not last for long (hours? days? weeks? something like that).
posted by tclark at 12:42 PM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

This all just keeps reminding me of the Guillenists in Turkey, and I’m not sure we ever found out what actually happened there.
posted by klangklangston at 12:43 PM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

It would also explain why Putin shifted from one major population center to another

Eh, I think it makes enough sense that he went where his long-previously-prepared secondary HQ was when Moscow got too threatened. Prigozhin doesn't really need nuclear weapons; he's sitting on all the logistics bottlenecks for the war, with the actual army too committed elsewhere to kick him out. With a personal security force to discourage any window episodes.
posted by ctmf at 12:46 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

Also, no, there’s no way Wagner has the codes to arm nukes, and while having a bunch of warheads would be frustrating and embarrassing, they provide zero actual deterrence.
posted by klangklangston at 12:46 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Also, no, there’s no way Wagner has the codes to arm nukes, and while having a bunch of warheads would be frustrating and embarrassing, they provide zero actual deterrence.

Honestly, there’s a non-zero chance he not only has access to one but has the codes. Russian military operations are awful.

I’m not saying it’s 10% chance he has an operational nuke, but it isn’t zero.
posted by glaucon at 12:50 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

I find I like my life way more since I consciously decided to stop following breaking news over a year ago

Basically my criteria for following news is "Does this mean I still have to go in to work or not?" If yes, I can wait and get a better sense of what actually happened later. If not, yay, no work, but I should also get ready to flee the city and try to get to my parents' farm ASAP.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 12:52 PM on June 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

The only reason I can think of re: why Prigozhin might back down and not expect a sudden case of windowflu the next day is if he has control of a nuclear weapon. (Ryvar)

Interesting theory, but. Russia's nukes are still likely to be extremely well guarded, not something even Prigozhin could easily help himself to. I'm more inclined to think that Putin's first priority was to stop, stall or reverse Prigozhin's advance. The reversal buys Putin time to shore up defenses against him. A nuke in his back pocket would be helpful to Prigozhin but with 25,000 troops at his command it's not something he needs in order to force a deal favorable to him. We'll likely find find out what the deal was in the next few days, because Prigozhin is not one to keep quiet.
posted by beagle at 12:52 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

NYT: The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, announced that the criminal case against the Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would be dropped. Prigozhin will go to Belarus, Peskov said, while the soldiers who did not participate in the mutiny will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
posted by gwint at 12:59 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I realize this can be difficult to understand for people who live thousands of miles away from these events, but for those of us who live near to Russia or have friends and family there, baseless nuclear speculation makes an already very stressful news event even more stressful. So please start a dedicated nuclear arms thread if you want to discuss that aspect of the invasion of Ukraine.
posted by Kattullus at 1:01 PM on June 24, 2023 [36 favorites]

that does not make a bit of sense

someone is going to double-cross someone
posted by pyramid termite at 1:01 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

referencing the news about prigozhin i mean
posted by pyramid termite at 1:02 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I guess Sergei Shoigu’s career lives another day.
posted by Artw at 1:03 PM on June 24, 2023

baseless nuclear speculation makes an already very stressful news event even more stressful

Please don’t do this. It is not baseless, it is not irrelevant, I did not spend a second dwelling on the horrors involved, and I am sitting in a location vastly more likely to be targeted than Iceland or Finland, where I also have close friends. It is intensely annoying to hear proximity invoked when it has absolutely zero bearing on the actual danger.
posted by Ryvar at 1:05 PM on June 24, 2023 [17 favorites]

What happens to Russian combat effectiveness and home front morale if Wagner isn't on their roster anymore? Maybe priggy feels he's too essential to be liquidated. Putin won't even call him out by name.

Plus how do you eliminate priggy without dealing with 25k Wagner goons who are well equipped and suddenly unpaid?
posted by Sauce Trough at 1:09 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Perhaps debates over which kinds of participation in this thread are permissible should go to MetaTalk.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 1:09 PM on June 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

I live something like 6000-ish miles away from Ukraine, and I still don't want to read a thread full of nuclear speculation. Please keep it elsewhere.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:10 PM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

while the soldiers who did not participate in the mutiny will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

How many of those are there? And what happens to the ones that did participate? Are they going to Belarus too?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:12 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Another amusing tweet:

THIS JUST IN: Coast Guard detects ''banging'' noises in the Kremlin
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:15 PM on June 24, 2023 [30 favorites]

Yeah sounds like "coup failed, and if you just GTFO, we'll consider it settled."
But also, "The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, announced"
mmkay. We'll see.
posted by ctmf at 1:16 PM on June 24, 2023

the soldiers who did not participate in the mutiny will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

For a 70% pay cut, no benefits and the contract is all lies. Sweet deal!
posted by srboisvert at 1:17 PM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

That's what was already happening though. Little extinction burst from Prigozhin?
posted by ctmf at 1:18 PM on June 24, 2023

Well said mutiny is over. Prigozhin has ordered his rabble to turn around.
Per BBC just now.
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 1:23 PM on June 24, 2023

“ Why has the internal exile been lined with plastic sheeting?”
posted by Artw at 1:24 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

In this case, I don't think baseless nuclear speculation is uncomfortable, I just think it is baseless and irrelevant. It is really hard to figure out what is going on in Russia (and Belarus) right now, but I am pretty confident in predicting it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons. And I don't know why people keep on going on about nuclear weapons. It is evidently possible to do a lot of damage without them.

Prigozhin has demonstrated that he can take two major Russian cities within one day, and march almost to Moscow with no real push-back. Without Rostov, the war in Ukraine is hardly possible, and I'm wondering why we haven't heard about the situation there yet, given the video of Prigozhin chatting amicably with the leaders there.

I'm not a military analyst, but my sense is that everything is chaos in Russia right now, and some people are scrambling to restore order while others are just waiting out till the inevitable collapse.
posted by mumimor at 1:24 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

Without Rostov, the war in Ukraine is hardly possible, and I'm wondering why we haven't heard about the situation there yet, given the video of Prigozhin chatting amicably with the leaders there.

It's been widely reported (pretty much ever since Prigozhin's weird "Mission Accomplished" announcement) that Wagner was packing up and leaving from Rostov.
posted by Flunkie at 1:28 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

And I don't know why people keep on going on about nuclear weapons

Because confidence is a two-way street. Why would Putin pretend to negotiate with Prigozhin as a peer, and why would Prigozhin accept the outcome of that negotiation as likely to be honored by someone like Putin? Prigozhin is the least likely person in the world to be taken in by an empty promise, therefore he must have some reason he believes Putin will continue to uphold any agreement after Wagner backs down. He’s a monster but not stupid: he knows that the thing Putin needs most is time right now, so why give it to him unless there was a means for enforcement afterward?

There must be some meaningful threat to Putin that remains after giving him what he wants (both time to react and a show of fealty), and it’s hard to see what else that could be.
posted by Ryvar at 1:33 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Put in charge of the new attack line into Ukraine from Belarus? (Wild baseless speculation content warning)
posted by ctmf at 1:38 PM on June 24, 2023

This is like a Prisoner's Dilemma payoff matrix except that the "both cooperate" square is terrible for both players. If Prigozhin gives up his coup, he's lost his leverage. If Putin lets Prigozhin get out with anything less than novichok underpants, Putin is going down.

Anything less than victory makes them both weak, and then they're both fucked.
posted by away for regrooving at 1:39 PM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

And I don't know why people keep on going on about nuclear weapons

because there's a non-zero chance that the bases where they have been kept could be taken over by non-authorized actors - even if they don't have the codes they would still have some leverage
posted by pyramid termite at 1:39 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Mod note: Let's end the nuclear speculation for now, and stick to what's actually happening on the ground, thanks.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 1:41 PM on June 24, 2023 [18 favorites]

Reason #7829 why Jens Stoltenberg is a better NATO Secretary-General than I would be: I'd be on twitter making jokes about how 25k dudes with a few armored vehicles and some anti-air can get most of the way to Moscow in 12 hours, and "I'm taking notes".
posted by allegedly at 1:59 PM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Kevin Rothrock
Locals ran up to the car to shake his hand. This is a man whose actions prompted an angry speech today from the president about treason. Putin has never looked so weak.
posted by Artw at 2:04 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Garry Kasparov's perspective. (My favorite Russian dissident.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:05 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

None of this makes any sense. The deal terms seem terrible. Exile in Belarus and no changes at the Russian MOD. Wagner guys will sign contracts with MOD. Very strange 24 hours.
posted by interogative mood at 2:05 PM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

Whatever is going one there is one verifiable fact; Putin has now has a serious dent in his armour. Whatever that might mean in the long term I have no idea, but this is very, very big.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 2:06 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Anything less than victory makes them both weak, and then they're both fucked.

This. The Russian political system reduced its non-rational / non-paranoid actors to fertilizer generations ago. Threat assessments - within military circles across all cultures - are not based on what you think your enemy will do, but rather the worst possible thing they could do. It’s vanishingly difficult to see an ongoing framework that both parties feel secure in without a… call it strategic element… in the equation somewhere. What stops the FSB from dragging every Wagner operative’s family into interrogation centers tomorrow and then ordering a surgical strike on Prigozhin’s location? Why would Prigozhin believe that is not Putin’s immediate next step?

Prigozhin’s been planning this for months. Stockpiling MANPADS and captured Javelins. He has to have gamed it out and come to satisfactory answers to those questions. We’re missing something huge, here, and the list of potential answers seems extremely short.

Put in charge of the new attack line into Ukraine from Belarus?

This is a good example of what Prigozhin might want after his confidence in his own safety was secured, but it doesn’t answer where that confidence comes from.
posted by Ryvar at 2:09 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

None of this makes any sense.

It only makes sense if it's kayfabe, and to be honest that is terrifying. It means that Putin thought it would be a good idea to fake a coup attempt, that Prigozhin thought it would be a good idea to play along, and since they both knew it was fake the Wagners could just walk up to within spitting distance of the Kremlin without more than the most symbolic pushback, and then they called the whole thing off.

You might think I'm kidding but the scariest part of this is how Aleksandr Lukashenko is suddenly the pivot. What does he get out of this? Whatever it is, it's too much.
posted by chavenet at 2:11 PM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

What stops the FSB from dragging every Wagner operative’s family into interrogation centers tomorrow

Does Prigozhin care at all about his own family, or is he too much of a psychopath for that?
posted by clawsoon at 2:11 PM on June 24, 2023

If I'm Prigozhin, I'm not buying any green bananas.
posted by azpenguin at 2:11 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Aleksandr Lukashenko is suddenly the pivot

I wouldn’t have assumed him anything other than a puppet… but if that’s the case why go along with him and and just assume your trip isn’t a one way one?
posted by Artw at 2:15 PM on June 24, 2023

Lukashenko would be smart to make the terms of inviting Prig into Belarus that he doesn't get to play warlord anymore, because you just never know if a Wagner field trip to Minsk is in the cards if Prig felt it would benefit him
posted by jason_steakums at 2:17 PM on June 24, 2023

The deal terms seem terrible.

At this point you gotta wonder if the main term is $10 billion USD to an offshore account in Prigozhin's cousin's name.
posted by airing nerdy laundry at 2:17 PM on June 24, 2023

I don’t know that you really get to enjoy that money when you and everyone around you is at constant threat of becoming a radiological hazard though… so that’s somehow not on the table or ????

It is very strange.
posted by Artw at 2:20 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Wagner guys will sign contracts with MOD.

The ones not in the column will. The one who were actively taking part have been explicitly pardoned too. It's not in the official Kremlin statement what happens to them, but it would be a credible guess that they will follow Prigozhin to Belarus.

Lukashenko may have just acquired a 10k+ military, doubling the Belarussian military size and who owe personal aligence to him and him alone, who indeed have a vested interest in not letting him fall to internal revolution and being a significant speed bump to Putin's expansion plans to annex Belarus.

I think Prigoshin had been planning this for a while, but had had to re-evaluate the math after a lot of men had declined to follow him north. Lukashenko offered him and his loyalists sanctuary and Putin took it as the only way out that avoided actual conflict on the edge of Moscow. Both Ps come out weaker, L gets a free army on his territory.

Just guesswork but fits with what I've seen so far.
posted by bonehead at 2:23 PM on June 24, 2023 [12 favorites]

So wait … if the Wagner troops who took part in the rebellion will not be prosecuted … but those troops were former convicts … does that mean they go back to jail? Or are they allowed to go free, while their more “loyal” compatriots are still pressed into service?
posted by panama joe at 2:29 PM on June 24, 2023

In mob terms, one of Putin's lieutenants got uppity was being squeezed out and tried for the big chair. He realized he didn't have the numbers and cut a deal with a neighbouring boss, who needed muscle for his own problems. Boss Putin had to suck it up or deal with open fighting. This at least allows him to save face.
posted by bonehead at 2:29 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

If you are a convict who serves your term in the Wagner mercenaries you get released to freedom after the end of your term... and the MOD would have you on the very top of their prospective conscript list. Nothing says you can't be conscripted as soon as they can locate you.
posted by Jane the Brown at 2:33 PM on June 24, 2023

I wouldn't call this saving face.
posted by Pendragon at 2:34 PM on June 24, 2023

Burn After Reading remains the only true movie about statecraft.
posted by Etrigan at 2:38 PM on June 24, 2023 [19 favorites]

I really hope more information comes out about the terms of the deal. But at least initially it looks like that Prigo gets to keep his army (at least, as much of it wants to move to Belarus with him, rather than join the regular army) and Putin avoids a public demonstration of which way the rest of the security forces would have placed their loyalties.

Like a comment above notes, Lukashenko seems to get access to a private army with at least some level of loyalty to him.

So wait … if the Wagner troops who took part in the rebellion will not be prosecuted … but those troops were former convicts … does that mean they go back to jail?

Only some of the Wagner troops are former convicts. Supposedly Wagner has been honoring the deal with the convicts who survived the meat waves and letting them go home if they don't want to sign up for a long-term contract.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:39 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

How long can Belarus afford to pay Prigozhin's army?
posted by humbug at 2:43 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'm disappointed they didn't do more actual damage but 9 aircraft without costing Ukraine a single thing is not nothing.
posted by srboisvert at 2:45 PM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

Prigoshin may have also been thinking that the war in Ukraine isn't winnable, and he doesn't want to lose his private army to the fighting, when he could be profitably using it in Africa and as bodyguards.
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:45 PM on June 24, 2023 [12 favorites]

How long can Belarus afford to pay Prigozhin's army?

the question is "can they afford to not pay Prigozhin's army"
posted by chavenet at 2:45 PM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

> I'm disappointed they didn't do more actual damage but 9 aircraft without costing Ukraine a single thing is not nothing.

To say nothing of the damage to morale.
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:46 PM on June 24, 2023

Just guesswork but fits with what I've seen so far.

FWIW this is the first and only explanation I’ve seen on Twitter, Reddit, or anywhere else that even begins to make sense. Even if some of the details are wrong (and they will be because it’s all developing), the overall structure at least fits rational actors making the best of a bad situation for everyone.

It's not in the official Kremlin statement what happens to them

I think this is the other key bit: the Kremlin can’t formally acknowledge that they are declining to followup on those that did participate, but it can be part of the understanding that further retaliation (there has already been some, reportedly) against those in the column immediately negates the agreement. They announce non-mutineers get a pass, and just …fail to specify that mutineers are also getting a pass for reasons of realpolitik.
posted by Ryvar at 2:47 PM on June 24, 2023

How long can Belarus afford to pay Prigozhin's army?

Wagner is at least partially self-funding (through mercenary contracts and especially their takeovers of resources like diamond mines) though with state support as well.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:49 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

is there a one-paragraph "what the fuck happened the past 24 hours" somewhere?
posted by seanmpuckett at 2:51 PM on June 24, 2023 [33 favorites]

This whole thing does read like a Cohen script. That's Fargo logic above; assume everyone is stupid, self-confident and ambitious and see where that takes you.
posted by bonehead at 2:55 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

the problem is that no one knows what the fuck happened - also, that it might not be over
posted by pyramid termite at 2:56 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

This is bizarre for the 21st century, but I feel like when mercenary forces were more important--through the 17th century--this would have been easy to understand: An underpaid and overused mercenary army mutinies. Fighting them is a bad deal for their employer, but at the same time the mercenary captain knows the end game is not seizing the throne because he has no legitimacy. So it ends in a negotiated settlement.

I don't know if that is actually the underlying mechanics, but it sort of seems like a baseline scenario for me--that is, for any other bit of speculation I feel like it needs to be more plausible than this simple mutiny scenario.
posted by mark k at 2:58 PM on June 24, 2023 [53 favorites]

So you're saying my Italian Renaissance comparison was actually apt?
posted by clawsoon at 3:04 PM on June 24, 2023 [19 favorites]

I hadn't noticed it before, but yeah, totally apt.
posted by mark k at 3:06 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

I guess that means we're waiting for Savonarola to appear.
posted by clawsoon at 3:08 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

I can't not think of Lenin's sealed train.
Prigozhin isn't a new Lenin, but then maybe Lenin wasn't Lenin. Meaning, maybe he wasn't a great revolutionary hero, but just a power-grabbing despot. Who knows, on this day of no-one knowing anything.

Anyway, there has been talk for a while of accelerating the war with an attack from Belarus. Wether planned or not, this deal absolutely enhances that plan, so it is a win-win for all involved. It creates a new Northern front for Ukraine to deal with and potentially relieves the main, Eastern front.

I don't think this was a grand premeditated plan, so I still think Russia is breaking down from the inside, but something vile has been created.
posted by mumimor at 3:30 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Where is this idea that Prigozhin will take some of his people to Belarus come from? I've not seen that anywhere.

All the 11-dimensional chess stuff is, in a word, dumb. I understand how strong the human need is to have things make sense, but actual history is much more chaotic. You can make sense of this in most broad terms of an authoritarian state overreaching militarily and, sooner or later, cracks appear and things gravitate toward different power centers consolidating their own interests while state policy becomes increasingly incoherent. But how all that plays is both historically contingent and sensitive to erratic individuals. Making specific predictions is foolish, and even making sense of individual events is very difficult.

There was some expert discussion about the Southern command's control of nukes, so Ryvar's speculations are not entirely without basis; but there's no evidence that Wagner occupied the HQ itself, just isolated it while he nominally controlled Rostov. And, really, the whole idea of a nuke somehow explaining these puzzling events is something from a Hollywood script. No offense, Ryvar, I think you've otherwise had some interesting insights.

I predicted yesterday to someone privately that Kadyrov and Lukashenko would end up involved in this, but I sure didn't anticipate what actually happened. I should have realized that the Chechens as the boogieman has been undermined by Kadyrov somehow always showing up late and that this wouldn't be an exception.

I assumed Lukashenko was 100% bound to Putin personally, but it seems to me that Prigozhin wouldn't have agreed to exile in Belarus if he didn't feel some trust in Lukashenko, although every single one of these people will betray anyone at any moment if they think there's advantage in it. So don't think this is even remotely a stable situation.

One possibility for Prigozhin going to Belarus is that the agitation from Lukashenko's domestic enemies this wekend has him nervous and he needs more anti-democratic support and thinks Prigozhin can help. Maybe Putin's thinking the same way, hoping to turn lemons into lemonade. So maybe there will be Wagner troops in Belarus. That seems weird, but all this is weird.

I'm inclined to believe that on a timescale of weeks this will all rearrange itself in ways that make the various motivations and support more obvious, but that the only direction it can go is a further breakdown in institutions and stability. As everyone is saying, this has indelibly demonstrated Putin's weakness and that sets the stage for whatever happens next.

Prigozhin's warm sendoff from Rostov by its people, as well as Wagner's general popularity among Russians, makes it clear that Prigozhin is a political threat to Putin. I still feel certain that the security apparatus is loyal to Putin, and Belarus is not particularly a place where you'd feel safe from them, so who knows if Prigozhin will avoid assassination. His very existence now is threatening to Putin.

This also has demonstrated fractures in the military — not perhaps at the top, but definitely below. Prigozhin didn't get a groundswell of support from the rank-and-file military, but they were also lukewarm to supporting the brass. But no one likes Shoigu and the brass has not endeared themselves to anyone. This all signals a great deal of weakness in the military itself, not that we didn't already know that, but the weakness is so obvious now that I don't think the status quo can stand. I think it makes sense to expect some changes at the top, not that i think it will solve any problems. Quite the opposite, probably.

This is a huge wake-up call to the average complacent Russian citizen and I don't think that genie can be put back in the bottle. But don't expect this to result in popular antiwar sentiment. Remember that Prigozhin is a hardliner — he's not complaining about the war because he thinks it was wrong, just that it hasn't been prosectuted with sufficient resolve and brutality. Absolutely no one in the west should be cheering on Prigozhin.

Which brings me to the other big issue that I think casual observers aren't seeing. All this instability and anger is toxic to democracy and liberalism. Do not expect this to do anything but move Russia further toward fascism, not away. The young are liberal and pro-European by Russian standards, but that's saying less than you might think, not the least because Russia is an aging country. Most of the older people are basically fascist. One thing I notice when I watch Konstantin on his YT channel is how weirdly pro-western he is. I really like the guy, but no one should be thinking he's representative.

These are desperate people in a desperate situation, and keeping that in mind helps to explain how ad hoc and erratic this appears. That said, there's some evidence that Prigozhin planned this in moving assets in advance. I'm still inclined to believe that he knew someone powerful was about to move against him and that's the proximate cause for this weekend.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:50 PM on June 24, 2023 [41 favorites]

I'm personally puzzled why Prigozhin didn't just say "peace out" and retire to his African empire with his soldiers. It seems a less risky ploy than a half-hearted coup attempt, in terms of getting to retirement not-dead. Obviously Russia is happy to assassinate people abroad as well, but I would think he'd be a great deal safer surrounded by his own men and cushioned by diamond and gold revenues than living on Lukashenko's dubious charity in Belarus.
posted by tavella at 3:57 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

How long can Belarus afford to pay Prigozhin's army?

Wagner is at least partially self-funding

mumimor well suggests that invitation is only for Prigozhin but if he does bring along his thuggish army it was one thing for a "superpower" to send out mercs, if a country with less clout sends them to an area that's complicated there could be a drastic reduction size of force. Happened in Syria when Russia disavowed a large group of Wagnerites.
posted by sammyo at 4:05 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

This whole 24 hours will make a hell of an Ianucci movie one day.
posted by Keith Talent at 4:07 PM on June 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

is there a one-paragraph "what the fuck happened the past 24 hours" somewhere?

No. I’m pretty sure there are career CIA Kremlinologists, whose job it is to know this shit, who are just as weirded out as the rest of us are.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:12 PM on June 24, 2023 [29 favorites]

> This whole 24 hours will make a hell of an Ianucci movie one day.

until there was confirmation that putin is in fact still on the earth instead of under it i was kinda convinced that we were living through a very derivative low-budget sequel to ianucci's 2017 film. but like what's even the point of watching if instead of this guy there's just some dumb neonazi mercenary
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 4:14 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

I had read an earlier summary that said his loyal troops would be leaving with him, but that detail isn't included in any of the current reporting I am reading now. So I definitely am not understanding what the deal was and why it was compelling for both sides.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:14 PM on June 24, 2023

No, the nuke thing is a canard from people without any actual expertise on Russian nuclear doctrine.

And, per usual, it's good to remember that people often make mistakes — overplay their hands, make blunders, commit to bad strategic choices on the basis of what they hope might happen. Rather than grasping for rationales that rely on everyone in Russia having good, objective judgment about their motivations and chances, the preponderance of human evidence supports the more parsimonious approach of assuming that people with operational habits of violent bluster and bullshit might not actually know what the fuck they're doing, and even things that may seem entirely rational on the inside may look absolutely deranged from the outside.

We have a limited handle on what IS happening; we have much less basis to speculate on WHY anything may be happening. Some epistemological humility is a useful approach.
posted by klangklangston at 4:18 PM on June 24, 2023 [23 favorites]

Crazy enough to start a coup is maybe crazy enough to suddenly stop one as well. Prigozhin would fit in as a player in the D&D campaign I'm in.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 4:25 PM on June 24, 2023 [8 favorites]

No. I’m pretty sure there are career CIA Kremlinologists, whose job it is to know this shit, who are just as weirded out as the rest of us are.


Same class of people that failed to see 1989 coming. And I suspect for the same reason: they were inclined to give their study subjects way too much credit.
posted by ocschwar at 4:25 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

i'm just going to say it now at a kind of random time so that i'm not tempted to say it later when there's stuff actually happening:

bah gawd that's field marshal zhukov's music!
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 4:25 PM on June 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

Ooh, rewatching Death of Stalin definitely makes a lot of sense right now.
posted by away for regrooving at 4:28 PM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

there are exactly two movies that i will watch at literally any time, like, movies where if we had literally just finished watching it and you said "hey, want to watch that again right now", i would say "hell yes!" without reservations. death of stalin is one of them.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 4:30 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

i like both of those but if i'm going to watch a movie infinite times it's gotta have scheming central committee members or a large number of spider-mans
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 4:36 PM on June 24, 2023 [14 favorites]

This is very much a Burn After Reading situation.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 4:38 PM on June 24, 2023 [6 favorites]

Putin: "Look, your ordered back to Moscow, this is not a negotiation"

Prigozhin: "Okey dokey."
posted by clavdivs at 4:38 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

METAFILTER: there are career CIA Kremlinologists, whose job it is to know this shit, who are just as weirded out as the rest of us are.
posted by philip-random at 4:41 PM on June 24, 2023 [9 favorites]

METAFILTER: This is very much a Burn After Reading situation.
posted by philip-random at 4:42 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

MetaFilter: Some epistemological humility
posted by duoshao at 4:47 PM on June 24, 2023 [18 favorites]

In “who knows what anything means anymore” news, some local citizenry in Rostov, after seeing Wagner off with their bestest wishes and fondest farewells, greeted returning police forces with considerably less warmth, per this video shared by Kyiv Post journalist Jason Jay Smart.
posted by Kattullus at 4:48 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

I'm still inclined to believe that he knew someone powerful was about to move against him and that's the proximate cause for this weekend.

Maybe that's what that weird "the Russian military attacked us with missiles" thing and accompanying likely fake video was all about - he got wind of some plan to do it or something like it to get rid of him (or just thought it was likely) so he got ahead of it in a haphazard and desperate way.
posted by jason_steakums at 4:51 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Could the Wagner Group Be Facing New Competition.
3-10-23

greeted returning police forces with considerably less warmth
That is very interesting.
posted by clavdivs at 5:00 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

One possible explanation of what Lukashenko got out of this is simply that his puppet master, upon whom his grasp on power has long and heavily relied, didn't suddenly get Qaddafied.
posted by Flunkie at 5:06 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

No offense, Ryvar, I think you've otherwise had some interesting insights.

None taken at all. The specific reason I raised it is that I have some understanding of what the chain of authority looks like on the US side (not a realistic possibility outside our strategic submarines), and virtually none whatsoever on the Russian side. Klangklangston’s twitter link was somewhat reassuring but there was a giant “I assume” in the middle of that which did not exactly inspire total confidence.

I think bonehead (eponysterically) offered up a plausible scenario that better aligns with Occam’s Razor, in any event.
posted by Ryvar at 5:11 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

The statement that the Kremlinologist’s got it wrong in 1989 is an oversimplification and is partially contradicted by the materials that have so far been declassified and summarized in studies such as this one done by Harvard’s Kennedy School in cooperation with the CIA.

There were a lot of people inside and outside the CIA (and elsewhere) who were writing reports that the USSR was failing to resolve existential problems in its economy and that the Soviet system was heading towards a collapse.

The report foreshadows the Iraq WMD claims where the National Intelligence Estimate — the consensus estimate — got caught up in politics where facts and expert analysis was minimized or ignored because it didn’t fit the narrative leaders wanted.
posted by interogative mood at 5:16 PM on June 24, 2023 [11 favorites]

Burn After Reading remains the only true movie about statecraft.

Indeed
posted by LooseFilter at 5:21 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

Prigozhin would fit in as a player in the D&D campaign I'm in.

Chaotic evil?
posted by Foosnark at 5:22 PM on June 24, 2023

No, the nuke thing is a canard from people without any actual expertise on Russian nuclear doctrine.

oh goody I was just waiting to be talked down to by people who have as little knowledge as I do about what is happening there
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:52 PM on June 24, 2023 [10 favorites]

Is it possible that what happened here was the Southern Military District firing a shot across the bow about the conduct and prospects of the war as the counteroffensive amps up? Considering it will now absorb whatever Wagner left behind. And that weird hangout video.

As I understand it, this thing was kind of like CENTCOM not particularly trying very hard to restrain a rebelling formation larger than a division from marching on DC (in a world in which the middle east is contiguous with CONUS).
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:17 PM on June 24, 2023

Thanks for the tip. I realize I'm not a Russian. These threads exist anyway. Metafilter has mods already.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:23 PM on June 24, 2023 [15 favorites]

Metafilter: anyone outside of the mindset is going to fall short
posted by bartleby at 6:34 PM on June 24, 2023 [13 favorites]

The Washington Post is reporting that US intelligence agencies as early as mid-June were aware that Prigozhin was planning something.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:34 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

“A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government.”

also

“U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was ‘definitely more than 24 hours ago,’ the U.S. official said.”
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:35 PM on June 24, 2023

If Prigozhin has, indeed, relocated to Belarus with most of his private army, I can’t imagine Poland is very happy about what is arguably Russia’s (well, “Russia’s”) most capable, best armed, troops now sitting at its border.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:40 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

That said, Prigozhin setting up camp in Belarus has to be exceedingly concerning for Ukraine. As batshit crazy as this has all been, it’s certainly a creative way to stage a northern spear into Ukraine without blatantly telegraphing the move.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:50 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Has there been any indication that he's taking "most of his private army"? I would be surprised if he were allowed to do so (by Russia or by Belarus), as well as if significant numbers of them decided to follow him there.

Anyway, I don't doubt that Poland would be unhappy about it if true, but I don't think it would really be all that big of an additional danger for them. At least Prigozhin seems relatively attached to the reality of what taking on NATO would mean.
posted by Flunkie at 6:52 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

Has there been any indication that he's taking "most of his private army"? I would be surprised if he were allowed to do so (by Russia or by Belarus), as well as if significant numbers of them decided to follow him there.

I think that the premise is that him getting to keep the troops who followed him to Rostov is part of the deal, whatever it is, with the Russian government that led to him backing down (the ones who didn't participate are the ones that will be signing up with the regular Russian forces). And he is still the head of the Wagner Group, I don't see why his troops would refuse an order to redeploy to Belarus.
posted by AdamCSnider at 6:55 PM on June 24, 2023

I wonder what assurance Prigozhin has that he won't end up flying out of a window as soon as his leverage is gone? Putin doesn't seem like the forgive-and-forget sort.
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 6:59 PM on June 24, 2023

If someone (Prigozhin) had vivid proof that Putin perpetrated the 1999 apartment bombings (300 innocent Russians dead, blamed on Chechens, pretext for the war through which Putin consolidated his power and became President, FSB agents arrested by local authorities for planting similar devices in an additional building but cleared when the federal gov't subsequently explained those were supposedly inert, planted for training-purposes only), would that be enough to keep that person safe when others would be assassinated? The automated release of something like that seems like a much more likely (and simple) dead man's switch than the catastrophic one being surmised upthread, no?
posted by nobody at 6:59 PM on June 24, 2023 [7 favorites]

The Priggy soldiers were supposedly being sent "back to base" whatever that means.

It means they're in the army now. (pauley shore gif omitted.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:03 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Yes, I understand that there's been speculation about it. I'm asking if there has been any actual indication of it.

As for Wagner "refusing an order to redeploy to Belarus", first of all, again, I'm not entirely on board with the idea that's been proposed here that Lukashenko would just love to "get a free army". I mean... "Yes, warlord who just attempted to overthrow my prime benefactor in a neighboring country that's much more powerful than mine, c'mon in, and of course you can bring your own army with you!"?

And second, I imagine that a lot of them would see Prigozhin (and more broadly Wagner) as having been chastised and to a degree made impotent. And some of them probably see Prigozhin as having stabbed them in the back for his own personal benefit while they were (in their minds) on the verge of victory.

Plus, given the way that Wagner troops were apparently received in Rostov, and the Russian government's assurance that they would always be treated as heroes, I don't really see why they would, en masse, voluntarily put themselves into exile.
posted by Flunkie at 7:04 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

What were people thinking on the streets of Moscow this afternoon? - from the brilliant 1420 guys
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:04 PM on June 24, 2023 [15 favorites]

Shoulda crossed the Rubicon
posted by The otter lady at 7:05 PM on June 24, 2023

What were people thinking on the streets of Moscow this afternoon? yt - from the brilliant 1420 guys

Interesting thoughts starting at 4:10. Anybody know what historical Cossack situation he might be referring to?
posted by clawsoon at 7:18 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was plotting Russia uprising

Over the past two weeks there was “high concern” about what might transpire — whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability might mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the official said. “There were lots of questions along those lines,” this person said.

The instability that might result from a Russian “civil war” was the key fear, officials said. In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and in Congress were briefed within the past two weeks on the intelligence, officials said.

A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government...

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was “definitely more than 24 hours ago,” the first U.S. official said.

It remains unclear why Putin did not take action to thwart Prigozhin’s takeover of the military command or his move on Moscow.

posted by BungaDunga at 7:24 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Those interviews were just great. Some acutely aware and saying nothing, while others saying everything.
posted by zenon at 7:27 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Anybody know what historical Cossack situation he might be referring to?

Presumably, the Cossack Hekmanate for as long as it was a vassal of the Tsarsdom. Though I stand to be corrected. (I did not expect the very direct reference to Weber, or Leviathan.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:28 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

Wondering: Has there even been a peep out of Shoigu since the start of this thing? I'm sure I could've missed it, but I don't think I've seen any comment or statement at all from him.
posted by Flunkie at 7:28 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

Potentially Stenka Razin who was a Cossack leader who led a major uprising against the nobility and tsarist bureaucracy in southern Russia in 1670–1671.
posted by phigmov at 7:40 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

When I first heard of these events, my thought was immediately that this is a nothingburger and nothing consequential will happen. I've been idly speculating why tho. I live next door to Russia so you kinda get a "feeling", and that feeling is roughly: in Russia nothing happens, or everything happens all at once. And this was a small thing happening somewhere far away, so it immediately felt to me like it's not going to go anywhere.

Sorry, I know this is meaningless! I was just wondering about how this thread started and how I felt completely unlike that.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 7:48 PM on June 24, 2023 [21 favorites]

Russia and its machinations are a league entirely their own. Any speculation from anyone outside of the mindset within Russia is likely going to fall short of what is actually going on.

Edward Keenan in "muscovite political folkways' wrote:"one of the characteristic operative features of muscovite political culture is, whether one is dealing with the 16th century or with the 20th, the rule"Iz izby soru tynesi' literally," do not carry rubbish out of the hut", remains in operation: i.e.; one does not reveal to non-participants authentic information concerning politics, political groupings, or points of discord."

this is very apt but discontinues to be when one starts armored columns/convoys to rostov. so really I guess it's how fast the rubbish is really moving and in this case"priggy'needed an out, that simple. pure speculation. I think there was a phone call and it didn't go well. essentially Mr Wagner went on strike took his s*** and went home. the one compelling piece of information that I find fascinating is the citizens of rostov and how they treated their police when returned. combination of anger and shame is quite a powerful motivator within society,

there's an old Russian saying "the law is like cart-Where you point it, that's where it rolls'

not quite the convoy from rostov to Moscow but the anti-party group and 1957 coup attempt.
posted by clavdivs at 8:51 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

Keenan wrote that in '86. Not to discount it. Just to date that weird feeling you're having.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:59 PM on June 24, 2023

Unrelated, but somehow I feel quite related...

Iz izby soru tynesi

is not a Russian sentence.

I assume it was meant to be something like

из избы сорю ты неси

But it is symbolic of understanding Russia.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 9:08 PM on June 24, 2023 [2 favorites]

While we were all watching the shit show in Russia, Ukraine continued to gain ground today. New offensives were launched in the east. They even managed to regain part of Donbas that has been under Russian control since 2014. None of this can be good for Russian morale.
posted by interogative mood at 9:12 PM on June 24, 2023 [26 favorites]

The 1671 rebellion ended badly when Razin’s support dried up.
posted by chrchr at 10:01 PM on June 24, 2023

yeah, no. weird if I would used the 86 text, paraphrasing from a 2014 Itext. Google translated: Iz izby soru tynesi' as,"Get out of Sora Tynesi's room" in Slovak I believe., which is weird.

is there a linguist in the house.
posted by clavdivs at 10:08 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

A detail I hadn’t seen elsewhere but showed up in ISW’s June 24 report: that part of the deal is that Prigozhen gives up control of Wagner, in exchange for personal amnesty. That could explain why Belarus would be willing to host him.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:29 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

This page has it as "Iz izby soru ne vynesi", which makes a lot more sense as both a transliteration of an original Russian sentence's Cyrillic, and as a sensible utterance, with the negative particle "ne" and the prefix vy- "(motion )out(ward)" intact before the root meaning "carry".
posted by Earthtopus at 10:35 PM on June 24, 2023 [4 favorites]

I usually only have to read a handful of articles to understand things; perhaps more if it's complex science/math stuff. I gave up on this around 9 a.m. (EST) Saturday. And then @DaveChensky on TikTok said,

"This would be like if the United States decided to take over Mexico and they sent in a bunch of military and then a paramilitary organization decides, 'Hey, we don't wanna do this anymore.' So they decide to take over the White House...they start moving towards it...and those troops are run by Guy Fieri."

And that that point, I decided I preferred that take to whatever else was really happening.
posted by The Wrong Kind of Cheese at 10:40 PM on June 24, 2023 [17 favorites]

I'd translate the whole thing obtusely literally as "out of the hut, [anything] sordid do not take out" and more holistically as (and it just means) "don't air your dirty laundry".
posted by Earthtopus at 10:41 PM on June 24, 2023 [5 favorites]

But don't take my word for it; turns out the expression has its own Wiktionary page.
posted by Earthtopus at 10:50 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

What happens in Volga stays in Volga.
posted by taz at 10:54 PM on June 24, 2023 [3 favorites]

I don't know the exact historical occurrence, but in Dr Zhivago, in one of the earlier failed revolutions, the Cossacks are in the streets knocking heads, basically. Might be a reference to that.
posted by LionIndex at 11:15 PM on June 24, 2023 [1 favorite]

Nick Harkaway (John le Carré's son) tweeted "Really wishing I could get Dad’s take on Putin/Prigozhin this morning.
posted by thatwhichfalls at 11:31 PM on June 24, 2023 [21 favorites]

Watching the video of Prigozhin leaving Rostov, I don't think this story is over, at all.

People in Rostov probably know more about the war in Ukraine than people in Moscow, so that's one thing. They might be worried that the war is going to move into their area when the Ukrainians get Western fighter jets. Another thing is that it seems likely that Russian soldiers get their R&R there, and tell about their experiences in the trenches to civilians they meet at bars and in parks. Realities like the fact that there are no Nazis to save the Ukrainians from, and that the war is at the very best scenario not moving forward -- more likely, the Russians are loosing.

Yesterday, there was a lot of "the full might of the Russian army will stop Prigozhin from getting into Moscow" going on. Where do people/pundits get that assumption from? A year into the war in Ukraine, that "full might" has not been demonstrated at all -- why would it suddenly appear now? Maybe people in Rostov and Prigozhin know that all too well. Maybe Moscow could have been toppled with 25.000 mercenaries?

I find it extremely likely that the generals are selling off arms and ammunition to third parties, and one reason Prigozhin knows that is that he buys them, with all the cash he kept in his house in St. Petersburg.

If, and this is obviously speculative, Prigozhin has been trying to tell this to Putin, and Putin still decided to stick with the generals, Putin is powerless, a mere puppet in the hands of the system he built. Meaning: I don't think the generals are powerful puppeteers, I think this whole situation has run out of their control and they are paddling to survive. OK, I'll stop metaphoring, I've lost control of that situation entirely.
posted by mumimor at 2:34 AM on June 25, 2023 [13 favorites]

Oh, and if I am right about the above, the reason Lukaschenko could talk the two Russians down would be that he could point out that right now, non of them would gain from a collapse in Russia. Prigozhin is not ready to be the new czar, he prefers oligarching and war lording. Putin does not need or want a civil war, even if he could eventually win it (not likely). Lukashenko would loose everything without Russian protection. If there is a civil war in central Russia, lots of minorities on the periphery will rebel and seek independence. The Russian federation could be gone within a year.
posted by mumimor at 2:42 AM on June 25, 2023 [9 favorites]

This arrived in my inbox this morning, a very interesting read:
The Sources of Russian Misconduct
A Diplomat Defects From the Kremlin
By Boris Bondarev
November/December 2022
It is from Foreign Affairs and paywalled, but I got this one article for free as a campaign offer.

But as an export official, I could see that the West’s economic restrictions had serious repercussions for the country. The Russian military industry was heavily dependent on Western-made components and products. It used U.S. and European tools to service drone engines and motors. It relied on Western producers to build gear for radiation-proof electronics, which are critical for the satellites Russian officials use to gather intelligence, communicate, and carry out precision strikes. Russian manufacturers worked with French companies to get the sensors needed for our airplanes. Even some of the cloth used in light aircraft, such as weather balloons, was made by Western businesses. The sanctions suddenly cut off our access to these products and left our military weaker than the West understood. But although it was clear to my team how these losses undermined Russia’s strength, the foreign ministry’s propaganda helped keep the Kremlin from finding out. The consequences of this ignorance are now on full display in Ukraine: the sanctions are one reason Russia has had so much trouble with its invasion.

and

Even after the January summit, I didn’t believe that Putin would launch a full-fledged war. Ukraine in 2022 was plainly more united and pro-Western than it had been in 2014. Nobody would greet Russians with flowers. The West’s highly combative statements about a potential Russian invasion made clear that the United States and Europe would react strongly. My time working in arms and exports had taught me that the Russian military did not have the capability to overrun its biggest European neighbor and that, aside from Belarus, no outside state would offer us meaningful support. Putin, I figured, must have known this, too—despite all the yes men who shielded him from the truth.

posted by mumimor at 4:18 AM on June 25, 2023 [14 favorites]

So what, if anything, has Prigozhin gained in the past few days? I suppose he's upped his profile, which may stand him in good stead with Russian hard-liners when Putin does eventually have to go. But other than that?

Maybe this is just the heat talking, but my theory is that his quid pro quo with Putin included a promise that he (Prigozhin) be gifted the Russian client state of Belarus. He moves there now, gives things a year or so to quiet down, then Putin removes Lukashenko and installs Prigozhin in his place.With his own little kingdom to run there, Putin's betting his interest in upending the Kremlin will vanish.

Sounds pretty bonkers, I know, but then so does every other scenario I've heard played out on this one.
posted by Paul Slade at 4:29 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

So what, if anything, has Prigozhin gained in the past few days?

It seems clear that he lost. We just don't have a clear idea of why.
posted by clawsoon at 4:49 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

I don't think anything seems clear at all.
posted by rikschell at 4:57 AM on June 25, 2023 [12 favorites]

I don't think anything seems clear at all.

Fair enough.
posted by clawsoon at 4:59 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

He moves there now, gives things a year or so to quiet down, then Putin removes Lukashenko and installs Prigozhin in his place.

I think Prigozhin would meet an unfortunate KIA end before Lukashenko allows that to happen. Prig’s always posing for pics with his troops out in the field. Shit happens.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:53 AM on June 25, 2023

Does Putin even need any changes in Belarus? It seems like Lukashenko already does everything he wants.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:14 AM on June 25, 2023 [5 favorites]

He needs it to be a stable boring client date that does what it’s told - Prigozhin parked there with an army/Prigozhin taking over seem counter to this.
posted by Artw at 7:28 AM on June 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

Prigozhin has been trying to tell this to Putin, and Putin still decided to stick with the generals, Putin is powerless, a mere puppet in the hands of the system he built. Meaning: I don't think the generals are powerful puppeteers, I think this whole situation has run out of their control and they are paddling to survive.

Some explanation along these lines is probable, I think. "The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand." Thugs are successful at a lot w/r/t power because cruelty and amorality are strong weapons in human relations; but they are significantly limited weapons, because they're dumb ones, and even shocking cruelty and murder on a mass scale is just dumb thuggery, not clever manipulation to power. I think it's entirely possible that the power system Putin created has run out of control and is now actively breaking down and there's not a whole lot he can do about it at this point (it certainly looks like that's what's happening).

But I do know that we mostly overestimate these assholes--which is understandable, playing defense is self-preservation--but the truth is they're not super-geniuses or tactical wunderkinds or whatever...even Putin's "brilliance" at disinformation is really just 'throw out a bunch of shit so no one knows what to believe or whom to trust,' it's fundamentally socially destabilizing and thus unsustainable. (Putin is only hoping to make it last until he dies, he doesn't strike me as a real 'plant a tree whose shade you won't see' kind of guy.)

I think this is what a genuine clusterfuck looks like, unfolding in real time.
posted by LooseFilter at 7:42 AM on June 25, 2023 [22 favorites]

I don't think anything seems clear at all.

It's clear that there's a lot that's extremely unclear.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:44 AM on June 25, 2023 [9 favorites]

He needs it to be a stable boring client date that does what it’s told - Prigozhin parked there with an army/Prigozhin taking over seem counter to this.

My impression - which is why I assumed that Prigozhin definitively lost - was that he wasn't getting an army in Belarus, just exile to a close Russian ally where he can be quickly offed if he steps out of line in the slightest. A sort of "you're lucky we didn't wipe out your entire family, enjoy some house arrest."

But I could be completely wrong.
posted by clawsoon at 7:48 AM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

> (Putin is only hoping to make it last until he dies, he doesn't strike me as a real 'plant a tree whose shade you won't see' kind of guy.)

On the contrary, he did have a plan for Russia, after looking at a bunch of old maps, which was a new Russian empire. And we're seeing that play out.
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:49 AM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

What is Prigozhin without his army? When he surrendered I thought they’d go with him. But half are being folded into the Russian army for less pay and half are being let loose with no repercussions which seems even more unlikely. You’d think they’d be pissed that he abandoned them. And what about the ones in Africa, is he going to run those operations from Belarus? Gerasimov and Shoigu are still in charge of the war effort and they’ve lost the only effective military commander they had. None of it makes sense.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 8:01 AM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

he did have a plan for Russia,

I know that's what he said, but his actions belie much more practical and prosaic goals, i.e., a permanent warm-water port in the Black Sea for oil and gas export, pipeline access and control across eastern Europe, etc. His actions are not those of someone who sees his rule as service to greater Mother Russia or whatever; they're the actions of a mob boss who wants all the power and control and money because he's an inferior-feeling, insecure little man.
posted by LooseFilter at 8:12 AM on June 25, 2023 [6 favorites]

Prigozhin: "Russia needs to live like North Korea for a certain number of years, close all the borders, stop playing nice, bring all our kids back from abroad and work our asses off. Then we’ll see some results."

Regardless of the details of how this all shakes out, I see Russia pursuing the North Korean model in the near future, a new Iron Curtain that the kleptocrats can hide behind.
posted by SPrintF at 8:13 AM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

What is Prigozhin without his army? .... None of it makes sense.

This is what I'm confused about currently and am hoping becomes more clear in the coming days and weeks. His whole thing with Wagner was how it was based on intense personal loyalty -- if you joined, you knew the risks were high, but you also knew that unlike the regular army the commanders were competent and commitments were honored. I mean, he got a significant number of his troops to join a march on Moscow, which is a major ask. The troops are loyal to him, not to the Ministry of Defense. It's hard to imagine him completely walking away from that, especially in a way that would be seen as disloyal to his troops or leaving them in the lurch, since so much of his personal branding is based on that connection and reciprocal loyalty.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:18 AM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

From what I can tell, Prigozhin just really hated Shoigu to the point where he wasn't able to submit his group to Shoigu's MOD without a fuss. He knew he would eventually lose control of Wagner but didn't want to go without some sort of gesture. In his speech it was all about Shoigu and how Shoigu lied about Ukraine and NATO and did everything for his own vanity.

Maybe he is angry at Putin, too, but 1. he wasn't going to directly say that and 2. none of us know Shoigu, maybe he's truly an annoying piece of shit.
posted by kingdead at 8:27 AM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

What were people thinking on the streets of Moscow this afternoon? - from the brilliant 1420 guys

I'd been checking yesterday if 1420 had posted anything. I thought "Denis" (4:05) had the most interesting response.
posted by justkevin at 8:30 AM on June 25, 2023

Have we heard from Putin since the rebellion?
posted by Melismata at 8:37 AM on June 25, 2023

My impression - which is why I assumed that Prigozhin definitively lost - was that he wasn't getting an army in Belarus, just exile to a close Russian ally where he can be quickly offed if he steps out of line in the slightest. A sort of "you're lucky we didn't wipe out your entire family, enjoy some house arrest."

Very much my impression, but the WHY of that doesn’t make sense, so I guess we will see.
posted by Artw at 9:07 AM on June 25, 2023

Maybe Putin figured, if he kills Prigozhin, Prigozhin's loyalists left in Wagner significantly drop their combat effectiveness? And Putin needs them to get anything done in Ukraine.
posted by sebastienbailard at 10:07 AM on June 25, 2023

Have we heard from Putin since the rebellion?


The Guardian has this in their daily summary:

President Vladimir Putin has appeared on Russian state TV for the first time since the armed rebellion threatened to topple his regime, though the comments appear to have been recorded before the mutiny.
posted by lovelyzoo at 10:12 AM on June 25, 2023

So that would be a no?
posted by Melismata at 10:15 AM on June 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

~My impression - which is why I assumed that Prigozhin definitively lost - was that he wasn't getting an army in Belarus, just exile to a close Russian ally where he can be quickly offed if he steps out of line in the slightest. A sort of "you're lucky we didn't wipe out your entire family, enjoy some house arrest."

~Very much my impression, but the WHY of that doesn’t make sense, so I guess we will see.

Personally, I think Prigozhin just very publicly explained to Putin why he should be in charge of prosecuting the war in Ukraine, by utterly pantsing Putin's generals. To save face, though, Putin had to punish Prigozhin somehow, so he's "exiled" to Belarus, where he will quietly manage the war. I mean, there's just no way Prigozhin's head isn't now on a pike in Red Square otherwise.
posted by Thorzdad at 10:15 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

even Putin's "brilliance" at disinformation is really just 'throw out a bunch of shit so no one knows what to believe or whom to trust,' it's fundamentally socially destabilizing and thus unsustainable.

I wish I could favorite this more than once, the disinformation tactics he uses are effective, but they're dumb. There are certainly smart people within this machine who delve more into the theory and can be effective in the application, but at the end of the day, his internal disinformation or the stuff he exports to other countries doesn't look like They Live, it looks like Facebook circa 2016, comments sections on local news sites, Q-level idiot conspiracy theories... and I think maybe dressing it up as something more helps us to feel better about our own susceptibility to things like it, and helps us to feel hope that if only this one sophisticated actor could be removed, the threat would be diminished. But he's just one in a long line of practitioners of this, the book was pretty much written before he came along and only the technology has changed.

Always keep in mind that this is the guy who thought Ukraine was a good idea, it helps keep perspective. A lot of his "brilliance" is helped along massively by the fact that he's not really fooling anyone with his strongman tactics and carefully crafted image, he's selling what people want to buy. In a lot of ways it's less about manipulation and more about signaling that it's acceptable to cheer the cruelty on, and giving people excuses for those moments where their conscience might nag at them (the lie that the war in Ukraine is actually about fighting neo-nazis to liberate Ukraine, etc). People want to hear that, they want to hear Russia is actually winning, they want to hear that the sanctions mean nothing and everything's fine, it's not tricking them. The destabilizing thing about Prig is more that he's selling something Putin's base wants more than what Putin is selling at the moment, the idea that the only thing holding them back from victory is the failure of weak bureaucrats and not letting the soldiers off the leash (same old tune we heard in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan).
posted by jason_steakums at 10:16 AM on June 25, 2023 [13 favorites]

Kevin Rockrock: Wow. Putin's spokesman says the felony case against Prigozhin will be closed and he will get exile in Belarus.Amnesty for all insurrection participants in light of their service in Ukraine.
posted by Artw at 10:28 AM on June 25, 2023

SPrintF: a new Iron Curtain that the kleptocrats can hide behind.

Which those kleptocrats won't like too much; while it likely wouldn't keep them from extracting Russia's riches, they'll have very few ways of selling them to the west, which would be what brings them the money to buy everything from Bentleys upwards.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:42 AM on June 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

he's "exiled" to Belarus, where he will quietly manage the war. I mean, there's just no way Prigozhin's head isn't now on a pike in Red Square otherwise.

You can't really manage a war quietly. You can advise, of course, but to manage you need constant access to information--meaning to staff and commanders--and, of course, a clear chain of command. Generals have enough trouble getting underlings to carry out orders even when their authority isn't secret.

As to why his head isn't on a pike, I think the simple answer is that Putin didn't have the power to make that happen. How could he, given the situation? Prigozhin had an army immediately available and willing to fight, the MOD didn't.

Maybe Prigozhin is targeted for assassination from now on, maybe Putin's happy to have him in the wings as a potential future asset if things change again, but for now exile is explained by it being the best available outcome Putin.
posted by mark k at 10:56 AM on June 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

This analysis (which Michael Kofman linked to approvingly) is making a lot of sense to me.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:58 AM on June 25, 2023 [13 favorites]

This analysis

the first* part of it definitely feels about right ...

Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.

in other words, Prigozhin acted because he had to do something, or else. So being a war lord, he pulled a war move. What's the worst that could have happened? Actual violence in which he lost his army and his life. But similar was likely to happen if he sat still and didn't act. So like I say, he acted ...

and this is all theatre on some level.
posted by philip-random at 11:14 AM on June 25, 2023 [7 favorites]

Thanks to clavdivs for posting the link to "Could the Wagner Group Be Facing New Competition?" last night. It's from March 2023 and seems very prescient now, describing Russian efforts to reign in Wagner in favor of Kremlin-controlled private security forces, and also claiming Wagner was not a spectacularly effective military force in Ukraine:

Wagner is not an effective force as it relies on brute force to achieve tactical advances. Wagner forces have been operating and suffering significant losses in the Bakhmut area since July 2022, and were not able to make notable breakthroughs until Russian conventional and elite forces reinforced the direction in January 2023. Wagner’s convict force lacked cohesion, discipline, and the morale necessary for decisive victories on the frontlines...

The Kremlin, however, has been increasingly marginalizing Prigozhin by refusing to recognize Wagner as an official legal entity and increasingly siding with the Russian Ministry of Defense on force professionalization efforts. Prigozhin likely overestimated his favor with Putin and the combat effectiveness of his forces in hopes that achievements in Ukraine would secure him a spot near Putin...

The Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense are reportedly forming new private security forces in an effort to normalize state-affiliated paramilitary groups, likely in an effort to displace private military companies like Wagner. Ukrainian intelligence reported that a subsidiary to the Russian state energy company Gazprom is forming a private security company under the law on safety of energy assets, which effectively allows the Kremlin to establish a legal parallel military institution. The Kremlin likely learned its lesson from relying on Prigozhin’s forces and may be attempting to eliminate future intermediary actors when forming parallel militaries.

Additional thanks to everyone who's been posting useful links in this thread that have helped newbies to the subject like me get up to speed.
posted by mediareport at 11:52 AM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

The repeated comparisons to Burn After Reading inspired me to watch it today, having not seen it before. Interesting comparison, thinking through the lens that philip-random offers above -- the whole thing as a blustery push for Prigozhin to "reinvent himself," never mind the risks that others incurred for this price.
posted by eirias at 11:58 AM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

So, the solution to one state having two armies fight one another, is to create 5 more armies that will fight one another?


I mean, eventually the citizenry will take red square with some cricket bats...
posted by eustatic at 12:02 PM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

Have we heard from Putin since the rebellion?

Yes, a link to the full transcript of his remarks was posted here yesterday morning. We haven't heard from him - or Prigozhin - since the deal was announced, though.

Allowing myself a moment for relatively ignorant speculation, I'd be very surprised if Prigozhin shows up on camera in Belarus. More typical warlord-on-the-run behavior would be getting on a plane to one of the African countries where Wagner has highly lucrative gold- and diamond-mine interests and has deeply embedded itself into the fabric of high-level government corruption, like the Central African Republic or Mali. Here's a pointer to the "Wagner's Expansion Into Africa" section in that excellent WSJ video linked way above.

But what do I know, ya know?
posted by mediareport at 12:04 PM on June 25, 2023

Lukashenko famously opened his borders to a lot of refugees who then are used as distractions and annoyances against Polish border guards without care for whether they survive the experience. I'd assume Prigozhin can use the same channel to get back to Syria or Africa. Honestly Syria would make a lot more sense as a refuge for him.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:22 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

The June 24 ISW report that Quasirandom shared upthread is a very solid analysis of what happened, Prigozhin's motives/aims, and the likely consequences.
posted by Gerald Bostock at 12:25 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

Igor Sushko suggests that Vornezh and not Moscow was always the objective for Progozhin.

Via DW: Russia's Wagner Group in Africa: More than mercenaries.
posted by adamvasco at 12:33 PM on June 25, 2023 [4 favorites]

Thanks, Gerald, Qasirandom and adamvasco; those links were informative.

The Moscow bureau head of the Financial Times just posted a few brief lines of translation from "a senior Russian MP" highlighting forgiveness for the rebel troops:

A senior Russian MP says the Wagner men who seized an army HQ in Rostov “didn’t do anything wrong” and were “just following orders.”

“They didn’t offend anyone, didn’t break anything. Nobody has even the tiniest problems with them. So what’s the matter?”
posted by mediareport at 12:50 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

“MP” in this context means a member of the Duma??
posted by Quasirandom at 12:56 PM on June 25, 2023

lol well it's the FT so that's a good assumption, I guess.
posted by mediareport at 1:03 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

Yet another thing that's unclear!
posted by VTX at 1:05 PM on June 25, 2023

Anton Geraschenko, advisor to their Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs:

According to my rough estimates, maintaining a private Wagner army cost Putin between $250 million and $350 million in cash per month.

Maybe Prigozhen was just too expensive. No hard feelings.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 1:26 PM on June 25, 2023

Yet another thing that's unclear!

I thought we were supposed to eschew unclear speculation in this thread?
posted by chavenet at 1:31 PM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

Wikipedia seems to think it’s somewhere in the range of $6bn per month.
posted by migurski at 1:50 PM on June 25, 2023

I mean... there are people to pay and supply chains to be maintained and probably people in the middle to manage things...

One of the NY Times writeups yesterday (that I can no longer find) pointed out that Wagner was operated essentially as a cash business, with pay and death benefits distributed through a network of middlemen, and that this has likely meant losing access to that network.
posted by Dip Flash at 2:13 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Maybe Putin bet Prigozhen he couldn’t deliver 400 cases of Baltika to Moscow in 24 hours and things just got out of hand?
posted by credulous at 2:36 PM on June 25, 2023 [11 favorites]

‘Putin was nowhere to be found’ An inside look into the Kremlin’s attempted negotiations with Prigozhin and why it took Lukashenko to put an end to the rebellion [Meduza, June 25]:

Another one of Meduza’s source close to the Russian leadership doubts that there would be personnel changes in the defense ministry anytime soon, stating that “Putin almost never bends under pressure.”

Meduza’s sources added that the rebellion weakens Putin’s position: “He was unable to get down to Prigozhin’s level, but he was nowhere to be found after yesterday’s national address. He’s the first in command, and takes control when necessary. He shouldn’t make Lukashenko the public face and allow Russia’s security officials [siloviki] to lead negotiations.”

[...]

One of Meduza’s sources believes that Putin will now try to consolidate power, and that the number of attempts by Russia’s elites to “restructure the hierarchy” will only increase.

Prigozhin’s coup attempt exposes Putin’s vulnerability [Meduza, June 25]:

A mercenary army led by a “nominal” commander is a natural element of Putinism. Such a structure carries out the orders of the country’s top leadership, but exists in a legal gray zone, operating largely outside of the law. Putin considers this approach to be a crowning achievement of governance and efficiency. Over the course of Putin’s 23-year rule and due to his distrust of regular government institutions, he has created quasi-businesses, registered in the names of his friends and former servicemen. He has even created entire quasi-states like the “DNR” and “LNR.” These tactics have allowed him to enrich himself, while simultaneously giving him the ability to disassociate himself from these endeavours at any moment, if need be.

This political strategy is based on the assumption that people are always under someone’s control and that their loyalty can only be secured financially. Once one boss stops paying them, they’ll look for another. If no one will pay them, they’ll stop working altogether. Putin’s laws on “foreign agents,” “undesirable,” and “extremist” organizations demonstrate this belief in the fundamental lack of human autonomy, as such agents and organizations are considered to be acting in the interests of his opponents.

Prigozhin, however, didn’t stop when he was cut off from his resources and stripped of his autonomy. Perhaps, he felt cornered. Those in power have long wanted Prigozhin out of the picture, but Prigozhin understood that without a source of power, he would become a criminal — both in Russia and abroad.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:43 PM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

Igor Sushko suggests that Vornezh and not Moscow was always the objective for Progozhin.

Wait. So, Prigozhin is now Raven from Snow Crash?!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:53 PM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

note:
This page has it as "Iz izby soru ne vynesi"

It does and I forget the "ne"
Thanks.
is there an optometrist in the house.

Metafilter: I got this.
posted by clavdivs at 3:18 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Just fyi, Igor Sushko is not generally considered to be a reliable source. (Link to Meduza editor's personal twitter, but there's a lot more eye rolling to be found. Too bad Twitter's algorithm and verification system is hot garbage..)
posted by the primroses were over at 3:20 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

This article in the WSJ highlights just how little is known about the deal and particularly what it means for Wagner as an organization.

Key unanswered questions include the future of Wagner’s 25,000 heavily armed troops, of the paramilitary group’s owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and of Russia’s military leadership, which failed to stop his rapid advance toward Moscow. The details of agreements brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to halt looming bloodshed have yet to be made public. ...

The whereabouts of Prigozhin, who according to the Kremlin had agreed to relocate to Belarus, were also unknown on Sunday. His company told a Russian TV network that he “will answer questions when he will have access to proper communications.” Flying Russian flags, large Wagner columns on Sunday were driving south on the Moscow-Rostov highway—away from the capital and away from Belarus. ...

The fate of Wagner itself has yet to be determined, Kartapolov added, saying that the Russian parliament is working on new legislation to give private military companies legal status. “To disarm and disband them would be the best gift for NATO and the Ukrainians,” he told Vedomosti. ...

As of Sunday morning, Wagner remained in charge of the Millerovo military airfield in southern Russia, according to Russian reports. It wasn’t clear when and how Prigozhin will leave for Belarus, and how many of his men will follow suit.

(Quoting more extensively because the WSJ so frequently is paywalled.)
posted by Dip Flash at 3:46 PM on June 25, 2023 [6 favorites]

So, do Russians still get tomorrow off?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:56 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Yes. Well, at least Muscovites. The mayor has said (post-Mission Accomplished) that Monday will be a day off regardless.

In post-Soviet Russia, weekend three-days you.
posted by Flunkie at 3:59 PM on June 25, 2023 [5 favorites]

Gift link for WSJ article just above.
posted by mediareport at 4:06 PM on June 25, 2023 [5 favorites]

Daily Beast: Russian State TV Anchors Aghast that Putin Didn’t Kill Prigozhin:

During the first post-mutiny broadcast of Sunday Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, propagandists focused on praising Putin’s infinite wisdom for ending the revolt in a speedy manner...

But State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov...was too flabbergasted about Prigozhin’s exploits to go along with the propaganda narrative. After letting out a long, exasperated sigh, Gurulyov said: “I am firmly convinced that during wartime, traitors have to be destroyed! Today, no matter who says what, whatever fairy tales they are telling, a bullet to the forehead is the sole salvation for Prigozhin and [Dmitry] Utkin...Treason cannot be forgiven under any circumstances! It simply can’t be forgiven, regardless of any past achievements! I will repeat it once again: the only way out for these friends is to kill themselves before [a] bullet finds them! There are no other options for traitors.”

Lieutenant-General Evgeny Buzhinsky added: “For me, what happened yesterday was completely surreal.” Like Gurulyov, he was bothered by the promise of impunity. Referring to reports that Wagner fighters shot down several military helicopters and a plane, Buzhinsky stressed: “Someone has to be held accountable for the deaths of pilots who have perished.”

From Julia Davis, who translates Russian state TV clips on her YouTube channel, Russian Media Monitor.
posted by mediareport at 4:38 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

To me that doesn't sound like a propaganda machine revolt, it sounds like the framing necessary to paint Putin as merciful rather than weak.

But, as always, I could be wrong.
posted by clawsoon at 4:43 PM on June 25, 2023 [12 favorites]

No, really. Where is Putin?
posted by Melismata at 5:05 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

for that matter where is Prigozhin, actually?
posted by glonous keming at 5:07 PM on June 25, 2023 [3 favorites]

CNN asked: “There have been no messages from Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin since yesterday evening. Could you clarify where he is now and whether he indeed accepted the conditions proposed by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko?"

The response [from press service of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Concord management company] read: “All your questions have been forwarded to Yevgeny Viktorovich [Prigozhin]. He sends his regards to everyone and will answer questions when he has proper communication.”

Prigozhin was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday in a black SUV[.] [...] Prigozhin himself has not confirmed the deal.

from CNN.com
posted by glonous keming at 5:18 PM on June 25, 2023 [5 favorites]

is there a one-paragraph "what the fuck happened the past 24 hours" somewhere?

Well, here's a "faux subtitles with real video" summary of the Wagner rebellion that's a lot of fun to watch if you don't understand Spanish.
posted by orange swan at 6:12 PM on June 25, 2023 [10 favorites]

All that yelling at Shoigu and Garasimov for a fucking 200sqft apartment in Minsk! I cannot believe this shit! He could've had it all!

omg orange swan not only did that have me almost falling out of my seat laughing but it's also the most plausible synopsis I've read anywhere today.
posted by mediareport at 6:50 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Russian State TV Anchors Aghast that Putin Didn’t Kill Prigozhin

To be fair, Russian TV demands on a regular basis that Zelensky be assassinated, Ukraine be completely razed, NATO defeated, and all kinds of silly things that Russia is completely incapable of doing.

Someone earlier mentioned that Putin carefully avoids mentioning "the traitors" by name, because then he can't take that back. Putin might need them again in the future.
posted by meowzilla at 7:29 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

Well, here's a "faux subtitles with real video" summary of the Wagner rebellion

A. hilarious and thank you

B. brought to mind the notion that Prigozhinn wouldn't be the first leader in history to balk at taking his private army into open battle, particularly against a foe who might genuinely have the means to annihilate it.
posted by philip-random at 7:54 PM on June 25, 2023

Some of the Wagner guys seem to be getting rounded up and summarily executed if the videos going around the usual places are to be believed. I’m not going to link them and I’m not going to watch them because the descriptions gruesome enough.
posted by interogative mood at 8:30 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

yes i think that is the most likely outcome of all this actually
posted by glonous keming at 8:35 PM on June 25, 2023

All that yelling at Shoigu and Garasimov for a fucking 200sqft apartment in Minsk! I cannot believe this shit! He could've had it all!

Where was that, mediareport?
posted by lukemeister at 8:45 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

Really, the only thing I'm confident about is that I don't really know anything. Right now, though, I'm kind of interested in the rumors that continue to circulate about Putin's health, especially considering the reports that he might not run in 2024. Of course, I suppose the first possiblity would be that, even if he didn't, he'd still rule in the background like he did after he didn't run in the mid 00's. Then again, what if he really is becoming too ill to manage whatever power structure he's built around himself? Given the contracts the Russian government wanted the Wagner fighters to sign, it seems like Prigozhin was getting muscled out. Even the act of having the Wagner fighters launch bloody assaults in Backmut reminded me of when the Romans had the Goths man the front ranks during some of the battles of the late 4th century (the Goths really loved that).

Following that line of thought, the question would be, why? From what I've read, Wagner handles a significant amount of Russian force projection in Africa and the Middle East. It seems like going after them would significantly hinder Russia's power projection capability. Is the Russian security establishment just reigning in a rouge element that became too powerful, or are the recent machinations power blocks within the Russian government fighting againsst each other either to position themselves once Putin dies/becomes incapacitated or to gain power around a leader no longer able to control them?

If that's the case (I have no idea if any of that true), how long has Putin been out of it? Since after the invasion? Since sometime before the invasion?
posted by eagles123 at 9:01 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

lukemeister, it came from the satirical video orange swan posted in the comment just above mine.
posted by mediareport at 9:03 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

What is the back story of the apartment?
posted by Keith Talent at 9:20 PM on June 25, 2023

What is the back story of the apartment?

Are you talking about the "fucking 200sqft apartment in Minsk"? If so, first, just in case it's not clear: I think it should be noted that the video that's from is not "real"; instead, it's akin to a Downfall video - fake subtitles put on actual video in a foreign language by some random person attempting to be humorous. With that said, I don't think there's any real backstory; I think the gist of it is just "all he's getting out of this is exile to a crappy place".
posted by Flunkie at 9:51 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

a rebel Warlord should have at least a 5000 person retinue.
posted by clavdivs at 10:02 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

Interesting story up at Meduza, claiming to give the takes of various members of Wagner. Looks like it was written before Mission Accomplished. One thing that really caught my attention is that (if the article is to be believed) a lot of them had no idea what was going on and were very confused about the whole thing. Reminded me of the early days of the invasion, when stories were coming out saying that some troops had been told they were going on a training exercise, others told to pack their dress uniforms for a victory parade, and stuff like that.

My favorite quote from the article (from "one Wagner veteran"):

"Has Yevgeny lost his mind? It’s like I got a free ticket to a shitty circus."

posted by Flunkie at 10:20 PM on June 25, 2023 [9 favorites]

a rebel Warlord should have at least a 5000 person retinue.

Well, he did (almost) pop up overnight in the capital with more troops than the entire Holy Roman Empire, so at least he's got that going for him.
posted by Flunkie at 10:21 PM on June 25, 2023 [1 favorite]

at least a 5000 person retinue.

in poker terms, this would be the "buy in". Which is why I've never gotten my shit together to march on Seattle. Never got the full buy in

Why Seattle you may wonder?

Have you been to Seattle? Have you seen what they've done?
posted by philip-random at 10:26 PM on June 25, 2023 [6 favorites]

The information on telegram and elsewhere at the moment is just getting more and more confused. I’m starting to think that this isn’t resolved at all yet. We could be looking at round two or some big changes in the next 24-48 hours.
posted by interogative mood at 11:10 PM on June 25, 2023 [2 favorites]

A lot of random-from-my-point-of-view people on Mastodon have been saying that Russian state media has posted video supposedly of Shoigu visiting troops in Ukraine, for a while now. I just saw my first mention of it from a fairly major news source (the Jerusalem Post, which I'm not terribly keen on, but I guess it's probably not bad for confirmation that this happened).
posted by Flunkie at 12:07 AM on June 26, 2023

Deutsche Welle too, now, so I think it's pretty safe to say this is real.

I mean, it's safe to say that it's real that Russian state media says Shoigu visited troops in Ukraine, not that it's safe to say that it's real that Shoigu visited troops in Ukraine.
posted by Flunkie at 12:13 AM on June 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

That Telegram channel posted a million comments before this one currently has the following as the most recent post:

⚡️Yevgeny Prigozhin remains under investigation for rebellion

As Kommersant found out, on the morning of June 26, the criminal case on the organization of an armed rebellion (Article 279 of the Criminal Code), the main person involved in which was the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin, was not terminated and continues to be investigated by an investigator from the investigative department of the FSB of Russia.

(Original in Russian. Shout out to Telegram's translate feature)

I hesitiate to post, because I feel it can only add to the confusion, but I feel that articles implying this is resolved need a counter-opinion.
posted by krisjohn at 12:45 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

Lukashenko is going to re-invade Russia with Prigozhin

Fuckin' A! This is the kind of creative, hilarious, outside-the-box baseless speculation with no root in reality that I can get behind, bravo!
posted by riverlife at 12:48 AM on June 26, 2023 [17 favorites]

Here’s my speculation with no Russian expertise whatsoever, just going with pure threat assessment logic:
1) Prigozhin was desperate, as per the links above
2) He was hoping for a groundswell of support from Russian conventional military at the colonel or lower general level, which failed to manifest beyond simply “we won’t fight you,” and 25,000 to topple Moscow might make some headway (probably not) in the very short term, maybe, but is mid-term suicide in any event and most likely city defenders can hold them in the suburbs until air power simply burns through their available MANPADS on attrition and regular military show up to take them in the rear two days later
3) his highest ranking officers all start getting phone calls that their families had “visitors.” A lot of them were rumored to have called their families 24 hours beforehand so the FSB already has an exact and updated list of which addresses to visit
4) it was pointed out to him by intermediaries from Putin that his troops were about to hit the red line. The red line in this case is the closest approach to Moscow possible where Putin could still deploy (purely internally for anyone concerned) the tactical version of strategic weapons we don’t talk about against Wagner’s column and not affect daily life in Moscow in the slightest. Whether that was a bluff or not he was told this option was on the table (could be a couple things, honestly, Russia supposedly inherited a top-notch chemical weapons program as well, want to place any bets what kind of condition Wagner’s NBC gear is in?)

At this point:
1) continuing attempts to reach Moscow are at best a mid-term suicide and at worst Putin isn’t bluffing and the whole column is mere miles away from death and a hell of a show of force
2) Prigozhin’s senior staff now get to pick between handing him over and turning back, or receiving footage of their families dying painfully before being killed themselves either immediately or in the next two months
3) Prigozhin surrenders with promises of exile and hoping against hope they’re genuine, his senior staff complies with their new orders with only the faintest hope they and their families are both allowed to remain alive but it beats the alternatives
4) Prigozhin is off to Belarus and what happens next is entirely Putin’s call as to whether he’s more useful as an example
5) at least some, and potentially eventually all of Wagner’s senior staff get liquidated to set an example and the remaining group signs contracts effectively at gunpoint
6) their families are left alone, at least for now and probably ongoing as leverage and to avoid provoking a backed-into-a-corner group desperation response

In short: if you put a much more elevated response on the table - and Putin’s been saying that shit was a possibility where homeland defense was concerned since nearly the beginning - suddenly this is at least two if not three terrible choices for both Prigozhin and his senior staff, and they chose to stay alive in hope of receiving the barest clemency. Doubt they’ll get it, Prigozhin simply falling into a hole never to be seen again seems likely unless he’s deemed potentially useful, but…

There’s probably an internal calculus of resentment vs fear-inspired loyalty they’re trying to achieve with whatever’s left of Wagner two months from now, and it will probably seem crazy harsh from a Western perspective but more or less meet the expectations of the survivors while still well short of their worst fears (eg watching their families get tortured to death before experiencing it personally).

Maybe I’m giving too much credit to various parties involved but I always tend to assume Russians play pragmatic fucking hardball every fucking time and that’s the most hardball I can personally think of that isn’t directly counter to the interests of the State (Putin, effectively).

If there is some kind of resumption of hostilities in the next couple days it’s Wagner senior staff looking at the outcome matrix and opting to grasp at straws rather than being completely at the mercy of an embittered Ministry of Defense by the end of the week.

Again: zero real insight into Russia specifically, just looking at this from the perspsective of: what is the worst thing every actor that outwardly seems to not be behaving rationally might plausibly believe about their enemy, and does their reaction fit those worst-case beliefs?
posted by Ryvar at 1:14 AM on June 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

Where is Putin?

The real one? Well "between a rock and a hard place" seems to be the best even reliable sources can come up with at the moment, and those sources don't even begin to guess where he might be physically.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:28 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

The real one? Well "between a rock and a hard place" seems to be the best even reliable sources can come up with at the moment, and those sources don't even begin to guess where he might be physically.

This is when we call in that Geoguesser guy to improbably track down a rock and a hard place somewhere in Russia.
posted by clawsoon at 4:08 AM on June 26, 2023 [13 favorites]

ChrisO_wiki (@[e-mail])

1/ The Russian authorities appear to be regretting recently passing a law that makes criticism of the Wagner Group a criminal offence. Thousands of Russians, likely including Vladimir Putin himself, are now theoretically subject to criminal charges attracting years in jail. ⬇️

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:33 AM on June 26, 2023 [11 favorites]

ah yes, russia, that country known for scrupulously observing the law even when it might inconvenience those in power
posted by logicpunk at 5:51 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

Russia supposedly inherited a top-notch chemical weapons program as well

This was where my mind went, when it was rumored the government was willing to blow up the M4 bridge over the Oka, which was the next thing ahead of the column. That would have bottled them up near Koltovo. Putin didn't have a problem using a chemical agent to bring the 2002 Moscow Theater crisis to an end.

I've heard some speculation that the person more likely to have actually brokered the deal is Alexy Dyumin; governor of the Tula Oblast, formerly Putin's presidential security guard, and then deputy chief of the GRU.

Apparently there are claims on Telegram that Wagner hasn't surrendered control of all facilities in Rostov and Voronezh; most notably the airbases.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:08 AM on June 26, 2023 [5 favorites]

I always tend to assume Russians play pragmatic fucking hardball every fucking time and that’s the most hardball I can personally think of that isn’t directly counter to the interests of the State (Putin, effectively).
Ah, there's your problem. You would do better to imagine a handful of squirrels on coke.

1/ The Russian authorities appear to be regretting recently passing a law that makes criticism of the Wagner Group a criminal offence. Thousands of Russians, likely including Vladimir Putin himself, are now theoretically subject to criminal charges attracting years in jail. ⬇️

That is effing hilarious, I have a bellyache from laughing and tears down my cheeks. And it proves my point above.
posted by mumimor at 7:47 AM on June 26, 2023 [8 favorites]

Ah, there's your problem. You would do better to imagine a handful of squirrels on coke.

Oh that’s easy, then:
1) Squirrel Wagner needs to get to Moscow for nuts and coke, but the MoD can blow up the M4 bridge
2) The senior staff begins craving both desperately and after much chittering Squirrel Lukashenko offers to guide them to a hidden cache, and promises Prigozhin “all the cocaine in Belarus”
3) Squirrel Prigozhin squeaks, “I don’t know if that’s a lot but it sounds good!”
4) Profit.

Gosh that was way shorter.
posted by Ryvar at 8:43 AM on June 26, 2023 [13 favorites]

New from Telegram Press, Who Moved My Cheese Coke? is an electrifying* account of navigating the post-insurretion prehumous phase of mercenary life, from the social media sensation and in-famous children's author, executive chef and mass-murdering warlord, Yevengy Prigozhin.

*car battery not included
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:56 AM on June 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

@krisjohn 3:45AM The Daily Beast has also picked it up now:

A few hours earlier, signs first emerged that the deal may not have been struck in good faith. The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that the criminal case against Prigozhin had not—in fact—been dropped. The official state news agency, TASS, soon confirmed that the investigation into the mutiny that humiliated President Vladimir Putin was ongoing.

A Prosecutor General’s Office source was quoted as saying: “The criminal case against Prigozhin did not stop. The investigation continues.”

Also Max Seddon, the Moscow Bureau Chief of the FT on Twitter
posted by TWinbrook8 at 8:57 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

David Remnick in The New Yorker has a decent overview + backgrounder on this weekend's events, admittedly largely single-sourced: Putin’s Weakness Unmasked. How it connects to end-gaming Putin's reign seems particularly fruitful to ponder.
posted by Quasirandom at 9:15 AM on June 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

Prigoszhin has released a video statement, “society demanded the mutiny”, and “the troops movement into Russia was a “masterclass” in how Russia should have carried out its 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine”

Guardian
posted by boogieboy at 9:17 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

a “masterclass” in how Russia should have carried out its 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine”

Do it in another country that isn’t armed with Javelins and MANPADS?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:40 AM on June 26, 2023 [16 favorites]

The Masterclass memes are going to be good.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:45 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

“the troops movement into Russia was a “masterclass” in how Russia should have carried out its 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine”

Step 1 is to get Ukraine to start a stupid war with someone and burn through all of their military resources, I guess?
posted by jason_steakums at 10:00 AM on June 26, 2023 [5 favorites]

None of them actually keeping their solemn promises, no wai?!??
posted by Meatbomb at 10:10 AM on June 26, 2023 [5 favorites]

But how would Prigozhin not understand how bogus any assurances from Putin would be?

Still think there are other things going on that we don't know about.
posted by Windopaene at 10:15 AM on June 26, 2023 [10 favorites]

Imagery published on social media has confirmed that a Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post platform was among several military aircraft shot down inside Russia in an apparent attempted coup by the Wagner Private Military Co.

Wagner-operated air defenses brought down the four-engine turboprop on June 24 near the city of Voronezh in southwestern Russia as the paramilitary group’s forces made an advance toward Moscow in what President Vladimir Putin described as an “internal betrayal” of the Russian people. All 10 crew on the Il-22 were killed.

Wagner forces also bought down several Mil Mil-8/17 transport helicopters, including: a specialized electronic warfare version; a Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopter; and a Mil Mi-35 attack helicopter being used to to stave off Wagner’s advance...

Wagner Forces Shoot Down Russian Airborne Command Post Inside Russia
posted by y2karl at 10:45 AM on June 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

“Only invade places that don’t fight back”
posted by Artw at 10:48 AM on June 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

To be fair Russia, however delusionally, didn't think Ukraine would fight back in any meaningful way.
posted by Mitheral at 10:54 AM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

Every day that Prigozhin lives he gets bigger, and Putin gets smaller. It's anticlimactic but if Putin kills Prigozhin, he will risk Wagner loyalists fragging Russian officers on the front lines. If Putin doesn't act he will face ongoing criticism by Prigozhin who will become a de facto alternative and rally point. Is there a way to contain Prigozhin? Judging from his rabid attention seeking, it doesn't look possible. It can be assumed that the phone call from Lukashenko was Prigozhin's idea, maybe part of his plan B.
posted by Brian B. at 11:01 AM on June 26, 2023

Haven't been able to find a full English transcript of Prigozhin's latest video, but here's an edited transcript from the Spectator (unpaywalled); it has some interesting tidbits:

Those (Wagner) fighters who have decided that they are ready to move to…(the Russian army) have done so. But this number is estimated at two per cent (of Wagner fighters)...

We were making an inventory and were going to go out in a convoy to Rostov on 30 June and publicly hand over the equipment near the headquarters of the special military operation, in case no decision (about our future) was taken. Despite the fact that we did not show any aggression, we were attacked by missiles, and immediately after that by helicopters. About 30 members of Wagner were killed, some (others) were injured. This was a trigger for the board of commanders who decided that we must move immediately...

Not a single soldier was killed on the ground. We regret that we had to hit air assets, but these assets dropped bombs and launched missile strikes. (We were) 200 or so kilometres short of Moscow. During this time, all military facilities along the road were blocked and disarmed. No one on the ground was killed. Among the fighters of the Wagner PMCs, several people were wounded; two Russian soldiers, who joined us of their own will, were killed.

I keep thinking about the pay cut (non-convict) Wagner soldiers might be looking at if they join the Russian Army. No African gold mine money for them there.
posted by mediareport at 11:17 AM on June 26, 2023 [3 favorites]

Prigozhins THACO is falling.
posted by clavdivs at 11:36 AM on June 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

We were making an inventory and were going to go out in a convoy to Rostov on 30 June and publicly hand over the equipment near the headquarters of the special military operation, in case no decision (about our future) was taken.

This is like when I caught a patron stealing a backpack from another patron at work and stopped him before he walked out, and he claimed he found it and was just coming to give it to us so we could find the owner
posted by jason_steakums at 12:36 PM on June 26, 2023 [4 favorites]

I'm not sure if the Telegraph and/or UK security services are credible sources, but they're echoing the "Putin threatened their families" explanation:

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance:

Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources...

The analysis offers clues into the mystery of why Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, called off his mutinous march on Moscow on Saturday just hours before reaching the capital.

posted by clawsoon at 12:50 PM on June 26, 2023 [3 favorites]

According to the NY Times' summary of the latest comments from Putin, he hinted that Wagner soldiers who don't join the army may be able to move to Belarus with Prigozhin. Whether or not that is acceptable to Lukashenko remains TBD, as does whether or not this is really part of the deal.

But as long as Lukashenko was ok with it, I don't see how the Russians could realistically stop the full power of Wagner moving across the border, if they weren't able to stop a small part of the Wagner force from driving most of the way to Moscow.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:51 PM on June 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

Maybe this move is about further development of Belarus into a vassal state, as the NYT put it a few days back. Choices for Wagnerites are stay in Ukraine and join the army, or go to Belarus and go back to doing the usual Wagner regime support skullduggery, but on a shorter leash.

And maybe to be a tripwire force, to the extent the recent NATO exercises may be causing a stir and in light of the defensive performance in this weekend's retconned wargame.

Either way, once they're encamped they can be whittled down to a more comfortable size, purged and reorganized, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:19 PM on June 26, 2023

Wait, did he say that it wasn't an invasion, just a parade to surrender?

I don't think this is really a new characterization, except maybe as a new combination of two previous characterizations:

1. Ever since the very start of this, he's been making a lot of noise about it not being a coup, or against Putin, just a march for the legal removal of Shoigu and, um, Other Guy from MoD leadership, and saying it was non-violent. Of course, he also made some rather contradictory statements (e.g. "We'll destroy anyone who tries to stop us"), but self-contradiction is the name of the game.
2. Literally in his announcement that they were stopping and turning around, he said that that was "according to plan".

posted by Flunkie at 1:31 PM on June 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

But as long as Lukashenko was ok with it, I don't see how the Russians could realistically stop the full power of Wagner moving across the border, if they weren't able to stop a small part of the Wagner force from driving most of the way to Moscow.

Well, first, they'd likely be more prepared for it as a significant possibility (maybe incompetently so, of course, but...). Second, I'm not convinced that Wagner wouldn't have been vaporized (perhaps even literally) before they got too close to Moscow.
posted by Flunkie at 1:38 PM on June 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

Also, there's always polonium in the umbrella stand, Michael.
posted by Flunkie at 1:39 PM on June 26, 2023 [15 favorites]

How much could polonium cost, $5, Michael?
posted by glaucon at 2:51 PM on June 26, 2023 [3 favorites]

Ukraine:The Latest podcast by the BBC has a lot of good reporting in general and I was particularly interested about in their summary and commentary on this past weekend. Recommended.
posted by meinvt at 3:11 PM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

English-language text of Putin's speech from today

Lukashenka's speech is scheduled for tomorrow, provided no windows updates run overnight.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:12 PM on June 26, 2023 [7 favorites]

Ukraine: The Latest podcast

That's from The Daily Telegraph; not the BBC.

I do think it's one of the better sources for day-to-day Ukraine updates; but keep in mind the general conservatism of the outlet.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:15 PM on June 26, 2023 [2 favorites]

Prigozhin may have committed some light treason.
posted by snofoam at 3:17 PM on June 26, 2023 [18 favorites]

Thanks for the correction on the sourcing for that podcast. I do find they generally provide a fairly clear demarcation between facts and analysis. The entire tone is clearly pro-Ukraine and hawkish.
posted by meinvt at 3:24 PM on June 26, 2023 [1 favorite]

Reading Putin's speech, I can't help but think that if you have to tell people that they're powerless, then they aren't.
posted by krisjohn at 4:22 PM on June 26, 2023

This Is Just To Say

I have shot down
the Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post platform
that was
overhead

and which
you were probably
saving
for war crimes in Ukraine

Forgive me
- will you hold for a sec?
Lukashenko is
on the other line
posted by sebastienbailard at 5:15 PM on June 26, 2023 [58 favorites]

Why does Putin bookend his speech with fatherland, motherland respectively? I thought Russia was always mother.
posted by unearthed at 9:46 PM on June 26, 2023

part of the Wagner force from driving most of the way to Moscow

I haven't been east of London or west of Seoul, but from what I gather from my studies of WW2's Ostfront, there's a whole lotta nothin' between Rostov and Voronezh I think...
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:55 PM on June 26, 2023

Historian Timothy Snyder has a good post Prigozhin's March on Moscow: Ten lessons from a mutiny

5. When backed into a corner, Putin saves himself. In the West, we worry about Putin's feelings. What might he do if he feels threatened? Might he do something terrible to us? Putin encourages this line of thinking with constant bluster about "escalation" and the like. On Saturday Putin gave another speech full of threats, this time directed against Prigozhin and Wagner. Then he got into a plane and flew away to another city. And then he made a deal with Prigozhin. And then all legal charges against Prigozhin were dropped. And then Putin's propagandists explained that all of this was perfectly normal.

So long as Putin is in power, this is what he will do. He will threaten and hope that those threats will change the behaviour of his enemies. When that fails, he will change the story. His regime rests on propaganda, and in the end the spectacle generated by the military is there to serve the propaganda. Even when that spectacle is as humiliating as can be possibly be imagined, as it was on Saturday when Russian rebels marched on Moscow and Putin fled, his response will be to try to change the subject.

It is worth emphasizing that on Saturday the threat to him personally and to his regime was real. Both the risk and the humiliation were incomparably greater than anything that could happen in Ukraine. Compared to power in Russia, land in Ukraine is unimportant. After what we have just seen, no one should be arguing that Putin might be backed into a corner in Ukraine and take some terrible decision. He cannot be backed into a corner in Ukraine. He can only be backed into a corner in Russia. And now we know what he does when that happens: record a speech and run away.

posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:16 AM on June 27, 2023 [20 favorites]

Chat GPT4's answer

sounds legit
posted by flabdablet at 2:56 AM on June 27, 2023

Heywood Mogroot III: there's a whole lotta nothin' between Rostov and Voronezh I think...

On the one hand, you do have to drive from Rostov to Voronezh.
On the other hand, you just have to drive from Rostov to Voronezh.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:24 AM on June 27, 2023

Re snuffleupagus' reference to the "children's author", this was news to me. From the "can't make this shit up department": Wagner Head Prigozhin’s Past Life as a Children’s Author and Illustrator
posted by kmt at 3:24 AM on June 27, 2023 [5 favorites]

“Chat GPT4's answer, fwiw”

For the love of god, don't ask ChatGPT for factual information. Jesus fucking christ.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:25 AM on June 27, 2023 [34 favorites]

Ivan Fyodorovich: don't ask ChatGPT for factual information.

What ChatGPT horks up can best be described as fucktual information.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:34 AM on June 27, 2023 [7 favorites]

My 4AM bonghits are better than ChatGPT. Speaking of which: I am now exactly one report of nerve gas threats away from Bingo. I feel like a good person would not be excited about this, even strictly hypothetical threats.
posted by Ryvar at 3:52 AM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]

That Snyder summary is excellent. He doesn’t use the term here, but in his Ukraine lecture series he shows the importance of back-home succession crises to the interruption of imperial adventures.
posted by migurski at 4:28 AM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

Ivan Fyodorovich: "For the love of god, don't ask ChatGPT for factual information. Jesus fucking christ."

Stoneshop: "What ChatGPT horks up can best be described as fucktual information."

Ryvar: "My 4AM bonghits are better than ChatGPT."

Rosamund Bartlett is a British writer specializing in Russian studies, and her explanation is similar:

Otechestvo is the literal word for ‘fatherland’, but it sounds high-flown and official to Russian ears, and is used mostly in poetry [...] it has a role in the rhetoric of nationalist politics.

By contrast, rodina (motherland) is used by every section of the population, and its associations are far more intimate. If otchizna and otechestvo relate to the country in which one is a citizen, rodina is the place where one is born – a familiar place which has always been there. It is where one feels a sense of belonging, the warm hearth to which one returns. Rodina is identified, moreover, with the nation’s soul. [...]

Rodina might just about be the most emotive word in the Russian language. The fact that it is also impossible to translate adequately says something about its close relationship to questions of national destiny, the Russian sense of self and the enduring belief in the country’s messianic future. The Russian motherland is something apart. ‘Every nation has a motherland,’ wrote the religious philosopher Georgy Fedotov in 1915, ‘but only we have Russia.’ The deepest source of patriotism in Russia accordingly lies not in pride in national achievements or military glory, but in love for the motherland, whose most visible expression is the extraordinary, almost physical attachment which Russians have for their native landscape – an attachment which they are often at a loss to fathom.

I'm not a huge fan of using GPT-4 for super-niche or mission-critical stuff, but it's pretty great for questions of broad synthesis like this. Maybe save the bile for when it actually gets something wrong (you won't have to wait long!)
posted by Rhaomi at 5:16 AM on June 27, 2023 [7 favorites]

Re snuffleupagus' reference to the "children's author", this was news to me. From the "can't make this shit up department": Wagner Head Prigozhin’s Past Life as a Children’s Author and Illustrator

He's a terrible person, but there is no denying that he has lived an extremely varied and interesting life. It's a pity he didn't stay in the book business or as a hot dog purveyor, though.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:30 AM on June 27, 2023

> Maybe save the bile for when it actually gets something wrong

... if you're not an expert in the subject, you don't know if the ai is hallucinating, ffs. Consider those lawyers earlier, or that agriculture prof who asked chatgpt if his students had plagiarized their essays.
posted by sebastienbailard at 5:40 AM on June 27, 2023 [14 favorites]

Historian Timothy Snyder has a good post Prigozhin's March on Moscow: Ten lessons from a mutiny
Posted by TheophileEscargot
This is very convincing to me, though and through. Read it!
posted by mumimor at 5:45 AM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]

Ukraine war: Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in Belarus, leader Alexander Lukashenko says - BBC News

Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko has been quoted as saying that Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozin is in Belarus, according to Belarusian state news agency Belta.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:55 AM on June 27, 2023

According to Meduza:

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has closed its criminal case on Wagner Group’s armed rebellion, according to state media.

During the investigation, it has been established that the participants ceased the actions that were aimed at committing a crime on June 24,” an agency representative reportedly said. “Taking into account this and other circumstances relevant to the investigation, the investigative authority issued a resolution to terminate the case on June 27.”

Ah, but:

According to Putin, maintaining the entire private military company from May 2022 to May 2023 cost the Russian budget 86.3 billion rubles ($1.01 billion). He also said the government allocated an additional 110 billion rubles ($1.29 billion) for insurance payments to Wagner Group fighters.

The Russian president also said that “the owner” of the company Concord Group, referring to Yevgeny Prigozhin, earned about 80 billion rubles ($937.6 million) “from the state” during the same period by supplying food to the Russian military.

“I hope nobody stole anything or stole as little as possible in the course of these operations, but we’ll be thoroughly investigating all of that,” he added.

So, arrested, prosecuted and defenestrated for financial crimes.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 7:43 AM on June 27, 2023 [3 favorites]

"pretty great for questions of broad synthesis like this"

No it isn't, because you have no idea if the "broad synthesis" is correct or if it is hallucinating again.
posted by tavella at 7:50 AM on June 27, 2023 [11 favorites]

Posting a link to chatgpt output just because you're into promoting it isn't exactly a good comment in this thread.
posted by sagc at 8:15 AM on June 27, 2023 [14 favorites]

Historian Timothy Snyder has a good post Prigozhin's March on Moscow: Ten lessons from a mutiny

Thanks for that, TheophileEscargot. Snyder is also the author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin, an excellent, harrowing history of the region during that brutal period of the 20th century. I had to stop reading it halfway through because the many awful episodes he so carefully documents got to be too wrenching. Essays like this from him are a good reminder to finish it.
posted by mediareport at 8:22 AM on June 27, 2023 [5 favorites]

The great thing about the Russian justice system, from Putin's POV at least, is that the FSB can open an investigation at anytime and decide guilt or innocence with a bare minimum of process, to achieve any desired result. Regardless of any past findings too!

IOW, everyone in Russia (and even Russian citizens abroad) is only a few paces away from a 20-storey window.
posted by bonehead at 8:24 AM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

BBC News

BBC Verify has been looking into claims that new Wagner camps are being built in the southern town of Asipovichy, to house up to 8,000 fighters.

On social media, some people have been sharing a satellite image which they claim shows that a wooded area inside an existing military facility outside the town has been cleared and new buildings put up.

We analysed previous satellite images of this area and found that the cleared woodland and the buildings have been there for at least five years.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:28 AM on June 27, 2023 [7 favorites]

Mod note: Hey, it's ok to end the ChatGPT derail now, as the user was explicit about its use when posting the link, per the FAQ
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 8:32 AM on June 27, 2023 [12 favorites]

Thank you. If nobody starts a new AI thread before EoD tomorrow I’ll come up with some pretext because clearly we are missing our weekly AI Fight Club fix. Squirrels and cocaine have nothing on Metafilter and ChatGPT throwdowns, it seems.
posted by Ryvar at 8:50 AM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

ChatGPT is a cocaine squirrel-nado.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:52 AM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]

Mod note: Hey, it's ok to end the ChatGPT derail now.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 9:23 AM on June 27, 2023 [21 favorites]

So, without heavy gear and armaments moving into Belarus, it doesn't really matter how many Wagnerites decamp for there. If they attack Ukraine without armor, the death toll will be objectively hilarious. The northern front line is more than adequately fortified to repel light infantry attacks. And if armor and armaments do move into Belarus, eyes in the sky will see and report on it.

And even more hilariously, if a revolution breaks out in Minsk, and Wagener is recruited to crush it, they can be taken hors-de-combat by someone writing a cheque. Hell, post their alignment on Ebay.
posted by ocschwar at 10:24 AM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

Were I a Wagnerite with any sense of history, I would not be excited about my prospects upon being concentrated in a woodland military camp somewhere out of the way near Minsk.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:28 AM on June 27, 2023 [13 favorites]

If it's anything like my experience in a military camp in Belarus (getting led off a civilian train by armed guards in a foot of snow in the middle of the forest: not fun), they should expect total and complete boredom, confusion and much television watching.
posted by UN at 11:26 AM on June 27, 2023 [11 favorites]

So Orban is not even pretending not to be a Putin stooge anymore . Says Ukraine isn't a sovereign state and cannot win, that the US and Russia have to do another Yalta and face Ukrainians with a fait accompli. Total denial that Saturday showed any weakness of Russia or Putin. (Original interview was for Bild)

Can this be the new rolling Ukraine thread? Old one is about to expire anyway.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:28 AM on June 27, 2023 [10 favorites]

He's a terrible person, but there is no denying that he has lived an extremely varied and interesting life. It's a pity he didn't stay in the book business or as a hot dog purveyor, though.

Or prison.
posted by Flunkie at 12:36 PM on June 27, 2023 [4 favorites]

“I hope nobody stole anything or stole as little as possible in the course of these operations, but we’ll be thoroughly investigating all of that,” he added.

What an interesting phrase - "stole as little as possible".
posted by Flunkie at 12:41 PM on June 27, 2023 [11 favorites]

That cracked me up, too, Flunkie. WSJ translated it as “I hope that nobody stole anything, or didn’t steal that much—we will look into all this.” [gift link]
posted by mediareport at 12:45 PM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]

The excellent Timothy Snyder article linked upthread has reminded me that Prigozhin is/was also the head of the Internet Research Agency that worked so hard to get Trump elected in 2016. Just in case you want yet another facet of the guy.

Wish he'd stuck with kid's books, Indraguzik actually looks really good!
posted by echo target at 12:50 PM on June 27, 2023 [4 favorites]

What an interesting phrase - "stole as little as possible".

"That any office supplies, TP, etc. that weren't locked up are gone is a given."
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:01 PM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

total and complete boredom, confusion and much television watching.

sounds like my experience of the 1980s as a twenty something
posted by philip-random at 1:12 PM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

Someone should ask Orban if the Hungarian armed forces would be capable of repulsing a single column of mechanized infantry marching on Budapest from 1000KM away via the highway.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:05 PM on June 27, 2023 [3 favorites]

What an interesting phrase - "stole as little as possible".

It's nice when you've normalized breaking the law so much that people pretty much have to in order to stay competitive with everyone else who is. Because then you can at any time bring the hammer down on anyone you want and be entirely technically justified in doing it. He's emphasizing being the person who subjectively decides, rather than some objective process of "did you do a crime or not." Of course you did, so you'd better not cause any more problems.
posted by ctmf at 2:24 PM on June 27, 2023 [6 favorites]

(Pretty likely that was a translation snafu and that the WSJ got the closer gist -- though now that I think about it ctmf's point probably still stands in that case, too. Here's the relevant phrase, if anyone here wants to double-check: "Надеюсь, что в ходе этих работ никто ничего не украл или украл поменьше")
posted by nobody at 2:51 PM on June 27, 2023

This is just the way it is, throughout ex-USSR. Laws are there to destroy enemies, and to be worked around. Chumps follow the rules, and are objects of derision.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:54 PM on June 27, 2023 [4 favorites]

Way back a few hundred posts, there was one claiming that Wagner HQ in Syria was attacked by Russian planes. That has never been confirmed and I assume is untrue. (Although something was bombed -- reports now say rebel positions. Anyways...) Then there is an apparently false story today claiming a Wagner leader was "apprehended" [Meduza]. Question: have there been any reliable reports from Africa/Syria about the Wagner organization?
(Seems to me, so long as Prigozin has his African mines, he has many alternatives to exile in Belarus.)
posted by CCBC at 3:09 PM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

This is just the way it is, throughout ex-USSR. Laws are there to destroy enemies, and to be worked around.

To be fair, this is also true for Rhode Island. And many other places.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:02 PM on June 27, 2023 [17 favorites]

Today the US announced another round of military aid (the 41st since August 2021, and worth half a billion dollars), including:

• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems
• Stinger anti-aircraft systems
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing
• Mine clearing equipment
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
• 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles
• 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin anti-armor systems
• AT-4 anti-armor systems
• Anti-armor rockets
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)
• Precision aerial munitions
• Small arms and over 22 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades
• Thermal imagery systems and night vision devices
• Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair
• Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment

posted by Flunkie at 4:56 PM on June 27, 2023 [8 favorites]

Last night I watched Sunday night's Inside Russia by Konstantin where he recapitulates the weekend's events with some commentary. There were a few interesting points he made which are worth repeating and discussing here.

By a large margin, the most significant of these are his theory that Lukashenko wasn't really involved in the negotiation,
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:26 PM on June 27, 2023 [2 favorites]

(Oops, accidentally hit post. I'm not entirely sure my comment, when completed, will be worth posting. So, never mind for the moment.

I'm old and have trouble typing on my phone and sometimes in my rush to type my fingers go astray and I've often feared I'd accidentally hit "post", but it's not happened before now. Sigh.)
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:49 PM on June 27, 2023 [4 favorites]

To satsfy any curiosity about my unfinished comment, it partly was about Konstantin's theory that Aleksey Dyumin was actually the mediator. Here's the Wikipedia entry on Dyumin.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 7:55 PM on June 27, 2023 [5 favorites]

US sanctions against Prigozhin were delayed during the coupette just in case, but they finally announced them. African mines included.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:48 PM on June 27, 2023 [1 favorite]

Timothy Snyder: "9... On its present trajectory, Russia is likely to face an internal power struggle sooner rather than later. That is how wars end: when the pressure is felt inside the political system. Those who want this war to end should help Ukrainians exert that pressure."

fwiw...
@kamilkazani: "Putin's grandfather worked at Lenin's canteen as a cook.[1] Kirilenko's great-grandfather headed this canteen. In a country like Russia they had the highest privilege one can have. The Access to the Body..."

According to Ibn Khaldun,[2] an assabiyah typically lives for four generations: from the conquest to the downfall. It very, very rarely outlives this span...

For the current Russian regime its founding conquest happened in 1917. Revolution was a radical break, in a sense that it fully replaced the pre-existing elites. The old ruling classes were persecuted into the oblivion and often physically exterminated...

The assabiyah evolved from 1917 to 2023 largely uninterruptedly. There was no major replacement. And by now it is really old. Putin is the third generation. Kirienko is the fourth. And most likely, there will be no fifth one. What awaits Russia is the radical replacement of elites.

Discussing the political developments in Russia as "the fall of Putin's regime" is spoiling the frame. It is not about the fall of Putin. It is about a demise of the entire assabiyah...

It is highly probable that in the coming years we will see a radical replacement of the ruling classes far exceeding anything we saw in the 1990s. The 1990s did not interrupt the continuity of the Soviet era elites. But the 2020s most probably will.

Putin's Biggest Mistakes in the Wagner Uprising - "The first one was comparing Prigozhin's coup attempt to the mutiny of Russian soldiers in early 1917.[3] That planted three parallels in Russian minds that'll be hard to erase. First, there's a weak and unpopular Tsar — Nicholas II, later executed with his family, then, Putin today. Second, there's a war going on that Russia is losing — World War I then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine now. Third, there'll soon be revolution and civil war, so start thinking about which side to be on."

The Wagner Mutiny Foreshadows a Russian Defeat - "Putin must be wondering if the determined toughness necessary to put down a coup attempt is to be found anywhere in his security apparatus — and if it is not shown soon, Ukrainian troops will only attack with more vigor."

It may be a telltale sign that in his speech, Putin didn’t just avoid saying Prigozhin’s name — he also didn’t mention Shoigu and Gerasimov, the mutinous warlord’s arch-antagonists. While Putin can’t but stand up for them simply because they represent the state, he can hardly be happy that they have allowed their conflict with Prigozhin to escalate to a point that endangers his very regime. Prigozhin’s invective against them rings true to many Russian soldiers who know they haven’t been commanded or supplied effectively. Putin must be wondering whether such sentiment is widespread and forceful enough to cause the troops to turn around and go home — as Russian soldiers did at the end of World War I.

Prigozhin is likely to lose, but his escapade is a clear sign that Russia is not winning in Ukraine. In fact, the invasion looks more and more like the same kind of adventure as this desperate “march of justice.”

The Wagner Mutiny Leaves Putin a Naked Emperor - "As he declared his Justice March, Prigozhin openly questioned the motives of Russia's attack on Ukraine — and no one cared to argue. Russia is fighting its unjust war by inertia and because many Russians can't stand to lose. The lack of popular indignation about a mutiny during an enemy counteroffensive has provided undeniable proof that the nation's heart isn't in the fratricidal Ukraine invasion. It also has shown Russia's fatigue with Putin. Even though Prigozhin didn't win, his anarchical mutiny move exposed the regime's brittleness to all who might want to exploit it. The emperor is naked. Sooner or later, whether by putsch or push, another courtier will make another move to try on his clothes."

so i guess if the center can't hold -- because it's grifters all the way down -- what could possibly replace it?
posted by kliuless at 12:48 AM on June 28, 2023 [11 favorites]

According to Ibn Khaldun,[2] an assabiyah typically lives for four generations

So you don't all have to hit Wikipedia:

'Asabiyyah (Arabic: عصبيّة, romanized: ʿaṣabiyya, also 'asabiyya, 'group feeling' or 'social cohesion') is a concept of social solidarity with an emphasis on unity, group consciousness, and a sense of shared purpose and social cohesion, originally used in the context of tribalism and clanism.[1]

posted by Stoneshop at 1:23 AM on June 28, 2023 [6 favorites]

Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief's Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say
NYTimes gift link

A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.

The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.

General Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped shore up defenses across the battle lines after Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, analysts say. He was replaced as the top commander in January but retained influence in running war operations and remains popular among the troops.

posted by mumimor at 1:42 AM on June 28, 2023 [6 favorites]

Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief's Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say
NYTimes gift link

So, on the one hand I think it is clear that Prigo had been talking to various players and was sure that he'd get public support as he rolled north. He was supposedly close to Surovikin so it makes sense they would have talked.

But on the other hand, I'm curious if this leak specifically is of real intelligence, or is deliberate shit-stirring to try and get Surovikin removed since he is actually competent and respected. Putin is caught in a bind here -- he needs to purge the people who were clearly disloyal, but widespread purges will only help Ukraine and might be resisted internally, as well.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:20 AM on June 28, 2023 [5 favorites]

Surovikin replaced Gerasimov in October last year, and was replaced with Gerasimov again in January despite Surovikin having shown to be the more competent of the two and also appearing to be more in line with Putin's plans how to take Ukraine.

In light of that, Surovikin apparently being involved in Prigozhin's coup that didn't fail because it wasn't a coup no honestly, is not extremely surprising, IMO.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:25 AM on June 28, 2023 [3 favorites]

Wagner’s Prigozhin Planned to Capture Russian Military Leaders (WSJ)

Prigozhin originally intended to capture Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, during a visit to a southern region that borders Ukraine that the two were planning. But the Federal Security Service, or FSB, found out about the plan two days before it was to be executed, according to Western officials...

Prigozhin’s plot relied on his belief that a part of Russia’s armed forces would join the rebellion and turn against their own commanders, according to this intelligence. The preparations included amassing large amounts of ammunition, fuel and hardware including tanks, armored vehicles and sophisticated mobile air defenses days before the attack, according to Western intelligence findings...

Western officials said they believe Prigozhin had communicated his intentions to senior military officers, possibly including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian aerospace force. It couldn’t be determined whether Surovikin passed this information on to the FSB, or how the agency found out about Prigozhin’s plans.

Surovikin was the first senior commander to condemn the plot on Friday and urge Prigozhin to stop his men. Forces under Surovikin’s command carried out airstrikes on the Wagner column, the only such attack by regular troops against the insurrectionists.

posted by BungaDunga at 7:49 AM on June 28, 2023 [3 favorites]

Okay, that last tidbit is new to me, that the strikes against the Wagner column were all made by forces under Surovikin’s command. That peels back one of the layers of veil surrounding the what-the-fuck-just-happened. All those quoted paragraphs help there, actually.
posted by Quasirandom at 8:14 AM on June 28, 2023 [2 favorites]

comparing Prigozhin's coup attempt to the mutiny of Russian soldiers in early 1917

"Own goal," but in Russian.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:29 AM on June 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

Forces under Surovikin’s command carried out airstrikes on the Wagner column

Surovikin is the Commander of the Aerospace Forces so in addition to his forces striking Wagner, the lost helicopters and extremely valuable aerial EW assets all belonged to his service branch. (Rob Lee points out the same.)
posted by kmt at 10:28 AM on June 28, 2023

Sources in the Ministry of Defense report the arrest of General Surovikin (Moscow Times). Google translated:

“In the context of Prigogine. Apparently he [Surovikin] chose the side [of Prigozhin during the rebellion] and they grabbed him by the balls,” said the second source. When asked where the general is now, he replied: “We don’t even comment on this information through internal channels.”

Putin freezes out hardliners after Wagner mutiny (Financial Times)

Sergei Surovikin, a senior Russian general known to have a good relationship with Prigozhin, has not been seen since recording a hostage-style video in the early hours of Saturday morning as the mutiny began, according to several people familiar with the matter.

posted by BungaDunga at 12:42 PM on June 28, 2023 [3 favorites]

That's very interesting, I wonder if the possibly forced video from Surovikin calling for an end to it was Prig's first oh-shit moment where he realized it wasn't going to plan? And then for the forces Surovikin commanded to be the ones that engage and that they shoot down...
posted by jason_steakums at 1:22 PM on June 28, 2023

Moscow Times claims Surovikin has been arrested as above; but currently denied by RU state media per DW's report.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:17 PM on June 28, 2023

Fog of war, at its best.
posted by mumimor at 2:28 PM on June 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

I guess they could just skip the whole 'arrest' bit.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:12 PM on June 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

"His fall was arrested by the pavement."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:15 PM on June 28, 2023 [8 favorites]

So Prigozhin was rolling up the M4 virtually unimpeded until he reached the area around Lipetsk, coming within 200 km of Moscow. Where was the rest of the Russian Army? Sure the Air Force sent up a few planes and helicopters to be sacrificed and someone threw up a ring of troops at the city limits but it seems like he must have passed several military bases and no one came out to challenge him? Why hasn’t Putin rounded up those commanders?
posted by TWinbrook8 at 3:50 PM on June 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

Where was the rest of the Russian Army?

Desperately fighting against a Ukrainian counter-offensive? Almost all of Russia's armed forces are committed to the Ukrainian theater. There's literally nobody at home with the right skills or materiel to defend from a serious threat of insurrection.

Why hasn’t Putin rounded up those commanders?

Because Prigozhin had thousands of men armed with a decent number of tanks along with some scavenged NATO ATGMs and MANPADS?

You're a commander on base. Every piece of decent working materiel you did have is now in Ukraine. Every decent soldier you did have? Ukraine. You have maybe a few hundred green mobiks with maybe working small arms. A T-90 requires three or four direct hits from an RPG-7. Even if you had a decent stockpile of them instead of wood training pieces, your guys still aren't sure which end of the RPG should be pointing forwards.

Do you send what little force you have to die (assuming they don't shoot you when they figure out they outnumber you 100:1 and you just ordered them to their deaths) in order to risk pissing off the possible new guy or do you just hedge your bets and keep your head down while shit sorts itself out? The airforce sent out Ka-52s and they got wiped out. What are your guys supposed to do? Ping rifle rounds off the tank so much that the tinnitus will drive the Wagner guys nuts?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:15 PM on June 28, 2023 [8 favorites]

Why hasn’t Putin rounded up those commanders?

That would require people capable of replacing them amidst the counteroffensive, which is now gathering momentum.

Easier to replace a higher-up with one the deputy careerists waiting in the wings.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:23 PM on June 28, 2023

1) stage a fake rebellion,
2) identify the willing participants,
3) purge them,
4) future rebellions and dissenters are discouraged.

I doubt this was planned this way, but this seems to be an opportunity for Putin. Then again everyone over there seems willing to stab everyone else in the back, so this could be considered a pointless exercise. Still, probably heartening for the dictator to see disloyal heads on the block.
posted by Ansible at 5:06 PM on June 28, 2023

I'm not sure it's entirely clear that there was no one who could've fought back - aren't the Rosgvardiya supposed to be entirely internal, and are thought to actually have mostly (but not entirely) been that way throughout the war? Also, I think there are supposed to be military or militaryesque units specific for defense of Moscow?

I don't really know, and in any case what with Russia being Russia who knows if any such things actually exist or not, or if they're at all capable even if they do, but that's what I seem to remember reading, at least. So I wouldn't be completely surprised to find out the reason is not "there was no one", but perhaps some combination of things like "they weren't explicitly ordered", "they're weren't sufficiently competent to mobilize effectively", and/or "Wagner gave up before they reached the 'defend Moscow at all costs' line".
posted by Flunkie at 5:27 PM on June 28, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'm not sure it's entirely clear that there was no one who could've fought back - aren't the Rosgvardiya supposed to be entirely internal, and are thought to actually have mostly (but not entirely) been that way throughout the war? Also, I think there are supposed to be military or militaryesque units specific for defense of Moscow?

Rosgvardiya are equipped for combat with lightly armed civilians who get too uppity, not a (somewhat) organized combined arms force. They don't expect civilians to have a tank or even heavy weapons. The heaviest thing they have in the arsenal is a BMP. They were setting up defenses and they were literal sandbag embankments with machine gun emplacements. Totally ineffective against what was coming.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:41 PM on June 28, 2023 [3 favorites]

If this had been seen as a serious external threat (i.e., something to which the Russian state would present a unified response), every resource would have been thrown at this to stop it (like the Ukrainians did when the Russians invaded). These were fairly small columns and they were relying (correctly, as it turned out) on not meeting resistance. The lack of resistance they faced speaks volumes, and is why now we are starting to see articles about the pending crackdown.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:37 PM on June 28, 2023

In Russia, fake rebellion gets you.





hmm.
posted by clavdivs at 9:23 PM on June 28, 2023

Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor has an article: The Kremlin Has a Batshit New PR Position: There Was No Armed Mutiny:

Days after the failed insurrection, Putin’s propagandists are contorting themselves into pretzels with a new narrative that is drastically different from their first reaction...

Appearing on Solovyov’s show on Monday, political scientist Yevgeny Satanovsky said: “Regarding the situation that some are calling a putsch or a mutiny. What putsch? What mutiny?” He explained that the armed uprising was merely an ordinary internal turbulence, using the Russian word “smuta,” which translates as strife or turmoil.

“There is nothing exceptional about that,” Satanovsky asserted. “This is merely a usual dust-up among the boyars [members of the ruling nobility in medieval times] that is traditional in Russia—and no more than that!” Satanovsky and Solovyov waxed metaphorical, comparing armed stand-off to a casual disagreement about turnips.

Anyway, expect that opinion to be coming soon to a tankie near you.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:41 PM on June 28, 2023 [13 favorites]

>coming within 200 km of Moscow. Where was the rest of the Russian Army?

How military units actually exist in quotidian form between deployments is a curious thing...

Lipetsk was last threatened by an invader in 1942 so you're not going to find much military-grade equipment sitting there waiting for somebody coming up the road.

This episode reminds me of the impression I got from a German rifle company's graduation picture ca. 1939 . . . I was thinking here was a group of individuals who underwent the finest military training known to man, along with a ton of equipment required to make mayhem with going forward. This 100-odd band of young men could arrive at any location and take it over and only could be stopped by an enemy formation of equal or greater size w/ equivalent training. And Germany was pumping these companies out by the hundreds!
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 12:28 AM on June 29, 2023

Ah, it's just the traditional kerfluffle that's part of every war Russia is involved in. The current one wouldn't be complete without it.

Nothing to see here, move along.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:29 AM on June 29, 2023 [1 favorite]

SNAFU
posted by zengargoyle at 12:56 AM on June 29, 2023 [3 favorites]

Do note that Smuta is the term used for the freaking lowest point in the history of Tsarist Russia until, well, 1917. 1598 (death of last Rurikid Tsar) to 1613 (Mikhail Romanov takes the throne due to being um, the grandson of the brother in law of the last but one Rurikid Tsar?). These 17 years saw the short reign of Boris Godunov (claim to throne: brother in law to last Rurikid Tsar), a three-year famine, Poland conquering Moscow twice, Sweden conquering Novgorod, three fake Rurikid princes who were all called Dmitry, a peasant uprising, and Tatars raiding southern Russia for slaves freely because there was no legal government to stand up to them.

Very much the definition of business not as usual in Russia. They still commemorate the end of the Smuta as a national holiday.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:04 AM on June 29, 2023 [15 favorites]

How many days until Russian media transforms Wagner into an anti-Russian terrorist organization infiltrated and financed by an Anglo-Polish banking conglomerate? Nothing Vladimir "I have Jewish friends and they all agree with me" Putin says would surprise me...
posted by UN at 5:35 AM on June 29, 2023 [1 favorite]

These 17 years saw the short reign of Boris Godunov

(Modest Mussorgsky’s weird masterpiece of an opera Boris Godunov dramatizes the Time of Troubles, and has a wild history of its own. If one prefers their history presented theatrically.)
posted by LooseFilter at 7:07 AM on June 29, 2023 [3 favorites]

Whenever an apologist says, "But how could so many people have been convinced that Jesus rose from the dead if it didn't actually happen?", I think of the False Dmitrys.
posted by clawsoon at 7:47 AM on June 29, 2023 [7 favorites]

This is a jokey comment. Skip it if you don't think jokes are appropriate in this situation.
Do you know Tom Friedman? That Extremely Wealthy and Incredibly Wrong author and NYT columnist? Well, I never read his columns because he is consistently wrong, but sometimes that very quality can be soothing. And it seems his latest column posits that Putin loosing his power is terribly dangerous and not good and we should worry. Given the fact that Friedman is always wrong, I am now very hopeful. Maybe this is the start of something good. Who knows? Friedman doesn't.

On a more serious note: a lot of important decisions in this world are made by rich, fearful old men. IMO that is why Zelensky makes such a difference; yes, he is probably well-off, but he is no oligarch. And he is not afraid. We sometimes forget that he was elected on a promise of making peace with Russia. And when that didn't work, he made the right decision and changed course because he is not afraid.
(Obviously, not all old people are fearful, Churchill wasn't. And not all young people are brave).
Putin is a fearful old man, and he makes all the wrong decisions all the time, and is unable to change course. We should see him in that light, and treat him that way, instead of letting our own fear drive our choices.
posted by mumimor at 11:25 AM on June 29, 2023 [20 favorites]

I claim sanctuary: three fake Rurikid princes who were all called Dmitry

And in today's repetition of history we have at least three fake Putins next to possibly a real one, obviously all called Vladimir (which by its very nature is less surprising than three separate princes all being called Dmitry, or is it?).
posted by Stoneshop at 11:39 AM on June 29, 2023

OK, it's finally time for me to fess up: I am Tsarevich Dmitry Ivanovich, and I hereby claim my rightful inheritance as Sovereign, Grand Prince, and Tsar of All Russia.
posted by Flunkie at 2:24 PM on June 29, 2023 [8 favorites]

Flunkie, we'll need to revive Dmitry's mother and make sure she recognizes you, like she did with one or two of the original Dmitrys.
posted by clawsoon at 2:28 PM on June 29, 2023

I hereby issue my first several ukases:

• Russia recognizes the sovereignty of Ukraine and the validity of the pre-2014 borders.
• My subjects are to lay down the arms they have taken up against Ukraine and withdraw peacefully from it.
• The official anthem of Russia is now Я о́чень рад, ведь я, наконе́ц, возвраща́юсь домо́й.
• In my dual capacities as Sovereign, Grand Prince, and Tsar of All Russia and as King of Albania, I hereby proclaim that Russia has been subsumed into the Kingdom of Albania.

posted by Flunkie at 2:32 PM on June 29, 2023 [5 favorites]

I am Tsarevich Dmitry Ivanovich, and I hereby claim my rightful inheritance as Sovereign, Grand Prince, and Tsar of All Russia.

we'll have that for you in an hour or so - first, we're going to make sure that we find all the coins in the couch ...
posted by pyramid termite at 2:45 PM on June 29, 2023 [2 favorites]

The official anthem of Russia is now Я о́чень рад, ведь я, наконе́ц, возвраща́юсь домо́й

I do not read Russian, but my wish for what that video would be when I clicked on it was granted.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 5:04 PM on June 29, 2023 [4 favorites]

I for one appreciate this incident's newly-surfaced Russian insight into diplomacy, and will, the next time, say, the sovereignty of Taiwan comes up or perhaps the status of Kurdistan, remember to ask myself, 'Is this not just a casual disagreement about turnips?'
posted by riverlife at 8:19 PM on June 29, 2023 [2 favorites]

one troika.
posted by clavdivs at 8:55 PM on June 29, 2023

Thomas Friedman was pretty decent when he was covering the Lebanese Civil War in the early 1980s. His book “From Beirut to Jerusalem” is readable and fairly ok (not great, not terrible). But then he came back to the US and started doing book tours, tv and writing columns that were increasingly divorced from reality of any reporting beyond some anecdotal interaction with a cab driver. The Lexus and the Olive Tree, The World is Flat, etc it’s just a badly created Ted talk.
posted by interogative mood at 9:17 PM on June 29, 2023 [4 favorites]

• Intelligence chief: Wagner Group will no longer fight in Ukraine: "Head of military intelligence (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, told Ukrainska Pravda on June 29 that Wagner Group mercenaries will no longer fight on the territory of Ukraine."
• ’Nothing has changed.’ Wagner Group still recruiting fighters throughout Russia for war against Ukraine: "Nearly a week after the Wagner Group rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the paramilitary group is continuing to recruit fighters to join the war against Ukraine, BBC News Russia reported on Friday."

If nothing else, the inconsistency remains consistent.
posted by krisjohn at 1:24 AM on June 30, 2023 [11 favorites]

a badly created Ted talk

from David Rees (Get Your War On, etc): How Green Was My Mustache? (2009)

If Books Could Kill podcast: The World is Flat
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:38 AM on June 30, 2023 [2 favorites]

Putin's spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, per the NYT:

"Ukraine was heavily militarized when the special operation began. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of its goals was the demilitarization of Ukraine. In fact, this objective has largely been carried out, because Ukraine uses less and less of its own weapons, and uses more and more weapons systems supplied by Western countries."

It's one of those rare days when I wish MetaFilter allowed inline videos.
posted by Flunkie at 1:43 PM on June 30, 2023 [13 favorites]

Amazing how quickly Putin goes from psyop darkweb social media "anything is possible" ninja master to Baghdad Bob.
posted by riverlife at 4:09 PM on June 30, 2023 [4 favorites]

He has the power of a mob boss, not a president or prime minister.
posted by krisjohn at 4:43 PM on June 30, 2023 [5 favorites]

There aren't any mob bosses with shhhhhhhhhhhhhh forces or some amount of direct control over the lives of a 140M+ population. The analogy only goes so far.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:49 PM on June 30, 2023 [2 favorites]

I mean, a proper head of state leads. He terrorizes.
posted by krisjohn at 8:16 PM on June 30, 2023

I understand. But consider the history of heads of state. Generally, and Russian. It's not a disqualifier.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 PM on June 30, 2023 [1 favorite]

Full List of Russians to Fall Out of Windows Since Putin Invaded Ukraine
posted by Artw at 10:42 PM on June 30, 2023

Full List of Russians to Fall Out of Windows Since Putin Invaded Ukraine

Already outdated. (Russian bank executive Kristina Baikova fell out of a window in St. Petersburg)
posted by UN at 12:31 AM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Lukashenko has announced that Wagner have been asked to train Belarusian soldiers, which is a move that has real nothing-can-possibly-go-wrong energy.
posted by Kattullus at 4:27 AM on July 1, 2023 [10 favorites]

Lukashenko has announced that Wagner have been asked to train Belarusian soldiers

Wow. That looks suicidal-level bad. Like the final scene of Thelma and Louise, except there is nothing nice about Putin and Lukashenko, at all. Prigozhin is the car, if you were wondering...
posted by mumimor at 4:45 AM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Better make sure those Praetorian guard's paychecks arrive on time.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:11 AM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

In the same speech he portrayed Poland as a threat and a proxy for *broad hand wave* the west and their military.
posted by krisjohn at 7:18 AM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Better make sure those Praetorian guard's paychecks arrive on time.


I'm going to open up a Kickstarter for turning them.
posted by ocschwar at 7:32 AM on July 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

People may forget but at one point in time, Lukashenko was angling to be Yeltsin's successor, through the route of the party. Of course, we know who did win that fight.

I don't think the two men have ever been friends. He's always been a danger to Putin.
posted by bonehead at 10:48 AM on July 1, 2023

‘Yevgeny Prigozhin will never be discussed again’: Russian media to erase all traces of mutinous warlord (Gaurdian)

On Friday, Russia blocked the websites of the Ria Fan, Politics Today, Economy Today, Neva News and People’s News online media outlets, part of a constellation of online sites that pushed out fake news in support of Prigozhin’s agenda.

The St Petersburg-based outlet Rotunda also reported that Prigozhin’s Internet Research Agency, a troll factory where low-paid interns would try to sow anger and distrust by writing aggressive comments under news and social media posts, had also been closed down.

posted by achrise at 10:57 AM on July 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

Prigozhin unperson.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 11:16 AM on July 1, 2023 [4 favorites]

The St Petersburg-based outlet Rotunda also reported that Prigozhin’s Internet Research Agency, a troll factory where low-paid interns would try to sow anger and distrust by writing aggressive comments under news and social media posts, had also been closed down.

Moms for Liberty will take up the slack, unless Putin closes that too.
posted by Brian B. at 11:21 AM on July 1, 2023 [5 favorites]

Lukashenko has announced that Wagner have been asked to train Belarusian soldiers

"Please document all your processes in detail. No, no, we're not planning to fire you, of course not! We just want to make sure that processes are in place in case something... uh... happens."
posted by clawsoon at 1:03 PM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Which, from experience, doesn't help profoundly poorly-managed organizations when they lay off large groups. Success is not just recreating processes, because those processes reflected the talent and relationships and habits through which they evolved. Even the parts that sucked were effectively tolerable, because they'd been woven into the fabric of a previously-functional system.

There's a reason Ikea has a reputation for shoddy construction, even though the people joking about it were usually the ones constructing it. You can't just have randos following instructions if you want/need to do better than okay.
posted by Riki tiki at 1:56 PM on July 1, 2023 [5 favorites]

I (hopefully) obviously know this situation is more complicated than downsizing, but as far as replacing the role of the ex-folks, or bringing those folks into a very different managerial context, I think it's relevant.
posted by Riki tiki at 2:06 PM on July 1, 2023

Another fascinating set of interviews from 1420 by Daniil Orain:

Interview with war participants

This time he goes to rural villages to talk to Russian soldiers who have returned from the front.
posted by clawsoon at 2:51 PM on July 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

Prigozhin: "I wish everyone in the world knew my name"
*Monkey paw curls*
48 HOURS LATER
Prigozhin: "I wish I was never born"
*Monkey paw curls*
posted by krisjohn at 4:26 PM on July 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

I have been wondering what will happen in Russia over time as more and more beloved sons, brothers, husbands and fathers come back maimed or dead. It seems to me that as Ukraine fights on, another mobilization in Russia will be necessary sooner or later. From that 1420 video it seems its going to take some time before "its necessary for the motherland" to wear thin. Still, I can't help but think it will be inevitable, although it might take a lot of people experiencing multiple losses before they decide their next son, or their own self is more important than Mother Russia.
posted by Reverend John at 4:51 PM on July 1, 2023

The Vietnam War may be instructive if not a 1:1 mapping. Russia may be able to supress dissent to a higher degree for now but they're also suffering significantly more attrition not only to their military but to their standing in the world, to their finances, to the capacity of the authoritarian system to enforce order, and eventually the support won't be able to hold... it's not the same playthrough but they might just be speedrunning the same game.
posted by jason_steakums at 4:58 PM on July 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

Russia is taking many more casualties in a shoter period of time than did the US in the Vietnam War or that the USSR did in the Soviet-Afghan War. Both were profoundly domestically destabilizing, the latter directly contributing to the USSR collapse.

It's really astonishing to me — given these comparisons — that Russian society has been able to absorb these losses without widespread unrest. Either there are some profound social and structural differences (which I think is at least partly the case) and/or the pressure build-up is there and it just hasn't found its release yet.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 5:19 PM on July 1, 2023 [7 favorites]

But given the state of Russia right now, how can we ever expect him to back down? How much fail can Putin accept before he too catches windowflu?
posted by Windopaene at 5:47 PM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Either there are some profound social and structural differences (which I think is at least partly the case) and/or the pressure build-up is there and it just hasn't found its release yet.

I think part of the profound social and structural difference is that Putin and many leaders before him have put an awful lot of time and effort into making it socially unacceptable to acknowledge that there is pressure, or at least cultivated a popular mindset that even if there is pressure, release valves are not to be trusted, aren't worth looking for, and probably don't exist anyways... but there are limits to that.
posted by jason_steakums at 5:49 PM on July 1, 2023 [2 favorites]

Possibly this has something to do with the ability for people who disagree with Putin or find the living conditions miserable to leave Russia, where it wasn't really a possibility in the USSR, or at least not as easily as it has been since 1991.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 6:24 PM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Anyone know much of the Soviet propaganda regarding the Afghan war was explicitly portrayed in terms of it being a matter of existential importance (as the current Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine is, to a great degree)?
posted by Flunkie at 6:44 PM on July 1, 2023

Soviet Foreign Ministry Circular to Soviet Ambassadors on the Situation in Afghanistan, Instructions for Meeting with Heads of Government


Soviet Foreign Ministry Circular Cable to Soviet Ambassadors on the Situation in Afghanistan, Instructions for Meeting with Communist Party Leaders

Breznehv gave this speech around the time of the invasion, but he's already struggling and doesn't say much of anything about it (or anything else).
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:49 PM on July 1, 2023 [3 favorites]

Thanks snuffleupagus. I haven't looked at the video yet, but from the ambassador cables, it looks mostly like "We're going to help Afghanistan", not "The situation in Afghanistan is a dire threat to the USSR". Am I wrong about that?

Also, to be clear, I'm mostly asking about the way it was sold to the Soviet population (on TV and such), largely as the war progressed, rather than what ambassadors to foreign nations were told to say about it at its commencement.
posted by Flunkie at 8:19 PM on July 1, 2023

I got the idea, and it made me curious; but the explanations given in the messages to outside communist and workers parties were the closest thing I could find. There may be more in the journal articles and books out there about the breakdown of the Soviet system in relation to the war. There's a lot of that kind of material. But I didn't see any archived domestic TV, or any translated articles from Pravda, or anything like that.

Brezhnev did give this (UN? Soviet?) speech in Feb '80; but again not domestic, possibly not even specifically about the war.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:25 PM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Anyone know much of the Soviet propaganda regarding the Afghan war was explicitly portrayed in terms of it being a matter of existential importance (as the current Russian propaganda regarding Ukraine is, to a great degree)?

By many accounts it was a reaction to the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran and related fears on their borders, but ordinary Russians were not in this loop beyond the notion of rescuing a deposed Soviet client. There was no payoff there except cushion from spreading influence. Back then, propaganda was mostly centered on the destiny of communism, actively promoted in the world and only intellectually challenged by economists. The communist brand soon started unraveling in their own Eastern bloc, especially Poland, causing other labor movements to avoid it. This might all be related to how the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was televised when compared to their invasion of Hungary in 1956 before most of them had television. Tanks and planes losing to villagers with neither can't be easily censored. The near total boycott of the '84 Olympics by democratic nations, and other sanctions, made it impossible to sell the Soviet brand any longer, especially after the shocking revelations of the Cambodian genocide of anyone socially respected or educated. These days Putin sees himself as restoring the greatness of the Soviet Union, but without an ideal, just pure ambition and brutality, surrounded by yes men.
posted by Brian B. at 8:44 PM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

Casualties in Afghanistan were not the biggest driver of unrest in the USSR. They contributed to it; but the larger story was the failure of Soviet leaders to reform the economy in a way that would ensure the supply of basic consumer goods. The dissatisfaction was driven by long lines to pick over nearly empty shelves at stores selling clothing and basic groceries (bread, meat, cabbage). They had trade deals with their allies that meant they were selling oil at a discount to international prices for goods form those counties; but when the price of oil fell to record lows that basically meant they were giving oil away and getting little in return. The oil and natural gas they were able to sell for hard currencies brought in less money so they couldn’t buy goods from the west to make up the difference.
The failure to deal with this crisis, the huge expenses of the war, and then the expenses of dealing with Chernobyl combined to cause a slow collapse that took a decade. 1979-1989.
We are only a year into this. Putin started this war with a domestic audience that saw him as bringing the good times back. They still have hope he will turn it around and bring back the good times again. They see it as a temporary situation created by the west. Populations will endure more shit and for a lot longer if they have hope it will all be back to normal soon.
posted by interogative mood at 8:45 PM on July 1, 2023 [6 favorites]

The near total boycott of the '84 Olympics by democratic nations

Correction: It was the 1980 Olympics in Moscow, then the Soviet bloc boycotted the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles.
posted by Brian B. at 9:01 PM on July 1, 2023 [1 favorite]

This declassified 1988 CIA report focuses on the erosion of domestic support later in the war, but it does have some discussion of changing public opinion and samizdat and etc. that is illuminating in terms of what was criticized as it dragged on. (Starting on p1, after the front matter.)

USSR: Domestic Fallout from the Afghanistan War


The mention of a popular series of "potboiler" stories about the conflict led me to this, but it's paywalled:

SOVIET AND WESTERN MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE AFGHAN CONFLICT [jstor]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:02 AM on July 2, 2023 [1 favorite]

I was thinking earlier that what's different is the 90s. Soviet people thought that change would be good. It wasn't. It was very, very bad. Today's Russians believe that Putin saved them from those bad times and so, now, they have every reason to believe that a regime change — especially one with the US's support as in the 90s — would return them to those bad times, except that it would be even worse.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 6:42 AM on July 2, 2023 [12 favorites]

Victoria Amelina, a writer and poet, just became the 11th victim of the Kramatorsk bombing. She passed away from her wounds. Pen America marks her passing, though without noting that unlike the nebulous"cancellation" threat to Russian writers, her voice was silenced for good.

“Another air raid alert
As if they are walking the whole country to the execution
But shoot just one of us”
- Victoria Amelina, translation by Ilya Kaminsky
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:16 AM on July 3, 2023 [14 favorites]

Sergey Shoigu speaks
posted by Artw at 7:42 AM on July 3, 2023 [3 favorites]

Sergey Shoigu speaks

Ahem. That's just "vranyo". He knows he's lying, they know he's lying, he knows they know he's lying. But the lies must be told!
posted by Stoneshop at 10:24 AM on July 3, 2023 [4 favorites]

Sure, but also his appearance here refutes speculation of his untimely demise that was posted a week ago on this thread.
posted by pwnguin at 12:02 PM on July 3, 2023 [2 favorites]

The only thing you can be sure of is that this shows Sergei Shoigu addressing a bunch of Russian Forces top brass, that it's after the announcement of the transfer of Leopards to Ukraine, and possibly even after the indication that a Ukrainian offensive is about to start. Note how there's not a single peep about Prigozhin (who's now a non-person in the grand Stalinist tradition, which doesn't do much to pin down a date for this performance as it's prudent to keep your mouth utterly shut about that fiasco lest you contract Acute Defenestritis).
posted by Stoneshop at 12:30 PM on July 3, 2023 [1 favorite]

He refers directly to the revolt and its dates? unless the idea is that's a ShoAIgu.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:12 PM on July 3, 2023

Also the extensive role of the Russian armed in putting down the rebellion, which presumably it did invisibly.
posted by Artw at 4:22 PM on July 3, 2023 [1 favorite]

Ah, the saddress Shoigu delivered that I saw was apparently a shorter one; the video above didn't open for me.

(appropriate typo left in)
posted by Stoneshop at 2:42 AM on July 4, 2023 [3 favorites]

Ezra Klein Of the NYTimes, had a very satisfying Podcast episode with Stephen Kotkin about the whole Wagner/Prigozhin story.
posted by From Bklyn at 12:32 PM on July 4, 2023 [1 favorite]

Klein/Kotkin via YT [6/28]
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:01 PM on July 4, 2023 [1 favorite]

Prigozhin got the confiscated 100 million dollars back. Which...okay, even more boggling. He's swaggering around Moscow like nothing ever happened?
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:22 PM on July 4, 2023 [6 favorites]

To be fair, swaggering is pretty much his entire skill set.
posted by flabdablet at 11:33 PM on July 4, 2023 [5 favorites]

ISW is reporting that: "Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko."

It's more than he got his money (apparently gold bullion mostly) back. He's being officially absolved of financial damages too.

Pretty wild how this uprising apparently never happened, and Wagner group just decided for some reason to decamp to Belarus. Who can say why?
posted by bonehead at 9:29 AM on July 5, 2023 [4 favorites]

Something's silostinky in Moskva.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:47 AM on July 5, 2023

If by both sides you mean the Russian FSB and the Russian MOD then yes both sides have probably mined the nuclear plant. Ukraine hasn't mined the plant and anyone making those claims is a victim of Russian propaganda or actively working for the Russians.
posted by interogative mood at 11:24 AM on July 5, 2023 [4 favorites]

Which side is denying IAEA access to the site should tell you a thing or two.
posted by Artw at 11:53 AM on July 5, 2023 [5 favorites]

Will there be an option outside of NATO freeing Russia of Putin and a forced de-Stalinization of the country?
posted by UN at 11:53 AM on July 5, 2023

We, who are in no position to do anything about what's happening at ZPP, might as well not presume the worst.

It may be that Russia is expecting to lose territory there and is trying to stage manage heightened anxiety around the plant to minimize losses or allow them to shift forces elsewhere without it immediately being taken.

It's a two hour drive from Enerhodar to Tokmak, according to Google. That seems to be the presumptive center of gravity for the fixed defense in the area.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:15 PM on July 5, 2023 [4 favorites]

Biden and NATO leaders have indicated that a radiological incident at ZNPP by Russia would be considered an Article 5 violation and an attack on Europe. So they will probably not do the most destructive thing possible.

My guess is that Russia might try to cause an incident at the plant on the scale of TMI-2. A dangerous condition where the plant is partially melting down but where the release of radiation can be avoided or at least contained within the power plant if the right steps are taken. Russia will use this problem to demand a ceasefire at existing lines and attempt freeze the conflict. At the end of the event the ZNPP will be permanently inoperable.
posted by interogative mood at 12:55 PM on July 5, 2023 [1 favorite]

It's already in cold shutdown (since the dam was blown, it still had one warm reactor beforehand); and it's inherently different than Chernobyl (or Fukushima). The kind of accident you'd expect at this point would be closest to Three Mile Island in its modality; I'm not sure about its scale. (And not to diminish the seriousness of such an incident.) CNN explainer.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:18 PM on July 5, 2023 [6 favorites]

A meltdown is when the fuel core in the reactor gets too hot and the fuel rods and control rods turn into a magma like slag called "corium". Nuclear power plants sit on top of huge slabs of concrete (often with cooling under the concrete) so that the corium will in theory not melt down into the soil and get into the water table. You won't want to get close to that part of the plant but; the plant should contain it.

The flaw at Chernobyl was that the water in the reactor flashed to stream and exploded. This caused a huge fire as the super hot core of the reactor was exposed to the open air and the graphite control rods caught fire. This created highly radioactive smoke and the particulates of that smoke went all over the place. The explosion and fire caused the meltdown; but actually the corium is still there. They did dig a tunnel under the reactor pad to add a cooling system to ensure it didn't melt through the concrete but that part of the plant worked. Fukushima also had an explosion (from hydrogen gas buildup); but less fire.

My point is that a meltdown isn't really the thing that gets you, it is the explosion. The meltdown is just a consequence of that. Despite the China Syndrome nonsense the radioactive corium isn't going to melt all the way to the center of the earth. It just needs to get to the water table though to really fuck you. Also if as they did in Japan you start pumping water through the reactor to keep it cool and you contaminate that water you end up with a huge problem or how to treat and release it.

IIRC the build up of hydrogen gas was the major concern during the Three Mile Island incident; but they managed to vent it successfully. The reactor type used in Fukushima and TMI both produce hydrogen gas as a byproduct.

Anyway engineers understood that a meltdown might happen in these plants and so they built the structure to contain it. They didn't expect the explosions or opted out of features to prevent explosion or ensure that any such explosion would be contained. Post TMI they even designed features to ensure hydrogen gas would be vented and not build up and informed operators to retrofit existing plants. Unfortunately the operator didn't install these in Japan until after Fukushima.
posted by interogative mood at 2:16 PM on July 5, 2023 [7 favorites]

Allegations of Russian use of WWI-style chemical artillery shells (with an arsenic compound) are circulating on Ukrainian social media, now being reported by the Kyiv Post as an official claim.

CDC page on Lewisite.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:21 PM on July 5, 2023

Biden has previously said that the use of chemical weapons by Russia in Ukraine would trigger a consequential response from the United States. That gives him some wiggle room.

Russia has used cx/tear gas for a while now and the allies seem to have accepted this as not really a chemical weapon attack. Lewisite is an escalation from tear gas to something much more harmful/lethal; but it is a step or two below Sarin gas or some other more lethal chemical agent. We’ll have to wait and see if there is allied confirmation of this incident and then see what kind of consequence they have planned.
posted by interogative mood at 4:50 PM on July 5, 2023

Seems to be an improved mustard gas. If that's the word. It's a blistering agent, not a nerve agent like Sarin or VX. But it's also a vast escalation from riot control compounds.

That's bad enough by historical association that soft-pedaling a response is going to be tough if it's both confirmed and acknowledged by Russia as affirmatively ordered.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:09 PM on July 5, 2023 [1 favorite]

Russia/Putin is going to claim it's actually Ukraine using chemical weapons. His intended audience is internal so it's fine by him that everyone else knows that he knows he's lying.
posted by VTX at 5:16 PM on July 5, 2023 [3 favorites]

Prigozhin arrives in St Petersburg, takes back seized weapons
posted by bonehead at 5:23 PM on July 5, 2023

Prigozhin arrives in St Petersburg, takes back seized weapons

It's not to say that Putin won't have him whacked at a later date, but for now it is safe to say that he is in a healthy position.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:18 PM on July 5, 2023 [2 favorites]

I think what this really demonstrates is how much Putin has lost control of the narrative. I don't think Prigozhin himself matters that much anymore. The fact that he's not only walking around, but getting effectively made whole, and that that's still being reported in Russian media goes against many of the comments from the Kremlin immediately after the deal. He's not acting like a criminal going to exile, he's acting like a war hero. Every stunt and media event makes Putin look weaker.

The Russia situation looks very fragile right now. These all look like cracks to me.
posted by bonehead at 6:24 PM on July 5, 2023 [5 favorites]

For those skimming, Prigo (or, according to some, a double with all of his fingers intact) went to the Wagner offices in Petersburg that were raided during the What Was It Again Nevermind and in addition to the cash, documents, etc. it was reported he retrieved before, was given back his personal firearm collection.

Which was then deemed significant enough to push out via the media. Replete with some details about his cool guy guns. (Which are actually kinda commonplace, by American standards; make of that what you will.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:45 PM on July 5, 2023 [3 favorites]

Monarchs and dictators rule by the consensus of the other powers in their territory; church, army, the top 1% of the top 1%. If all of them turn on one, that one can't stand, no matter who it is. But the messy destruction of any one player is destabilizing, so every opportunity is given to deescalate from conflict with minimum change to status. The kill needs to be clean. Either someone so powerful that they can take a player out with unofficial approval of the majority, or if one party's fortunes are waning, the entire group will take the weakened one out in order to avoid, again, messy conflict that will negatively affect everyone.

Prigozhin failed to achieve a quick, surgical strike to remove Putin, but Putin also failed to cleanly remove Prigozhin in response. The board has changed, but those of us outside the game can't tell exactly how.
posted by krisjohn at 7:38 PM on July 5, 2023 [4 favorites]

@JuliaDavisNews (aka Russian Media Monitor, the captioned state media clips):

Meanwhile in Russia: photos from the search of Yevgeny Prigozhin's properties are published by the media (thread)

Ending with: Russian media is reporting that Yevgeny Prigozhin was awarded a Gold Star medal with the title of Hero of the Russian Federation on June 20, 2022.

Whoever's paying attention, that's what they're putting out. And most of Putin's base watches enough state media to stay abreast of the current narrative. 1420's updates are enough to show that much.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:19 PM on July 5, 2023 [1 favorite]

Prigozhin arrives in St Petersburg, takes back seized weapons

From the article: "A few hours earlier, the leader of Wagner PMC was officially invited to take back his weapons found during the searches on 24 June and seized in his country residence in the elite cottage village of Northern Versailles."

I assume this refers to the 'elite cottage village' in Las Vegas or Moscow, not France? Google search doesn't lead to any obvious results I can find.
posted by UN at 12:32 AM on July 6, 2023

Medieval England, Iowa
posted by krisjohn at 1:31 AM on July 6, 2023 [5 favorites]

Northern Versailles is a cookie cutter mini mansion suburb near St Petersburg. Which looks so cartoonishly New Russian I wouldn't believe it in a movie.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:51 AM on July 6, 2023 [7 favorites]

UN: I assume this refers to the 'elite cottage village' in Las Vegas or Moscow, not France? Google search doesn't lead to any obvious results I can find.

This, perhaps? There's another place referred to as Northern Versailles, but it's way further east in the northern Ural mountains, and looks to be little more than some megalomaniac architect's wet dream.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:54 AM on July 6, 2023

Meanwhile in Russia: photos from the search of Yevgeny Prigozhin's properties are published by the media (thread)

Can it still be considered a thread if Twitter will only serve up one tweet?
posted by achrise at 6:16 AM on July 6, 2023

Is there another source for the poster? Something's going weird with Mastodon and I'd love to see it.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:59 AM on July 6, 2023

Ooh, wait, I think I've found it - is this it?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:00 AM on July 6, 2023 [2 favorites]

The poster. [Twimg deeplink]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:00 AM on July 6, 2023 [9 favorites]

Updated press release from the American Nuclear Society (the industry association in the US) on ZNPP:

The American Nuclear Society continues to monitor official statements and social media “chatter” regarding the status of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP).

Our experts have carefully considered ‘worst case scenarios,’ including bombardment and deliberate sabotage of the reactors and spent fuel storage canisters. They cannot foresee a situation that would result in radiation-related health consequences to the public.

ZNPP’s six reactors have been shut down for over ten months and are no longer making enough heat to cause a prompt radiological release. ZNPP is designed to withstand natural and man-made hazards. Thick, steel-reinforced concrete containment buildings protect the reactor cores and are designed to keep any radioactive materials isolated from the environment.

In the unlikely event that containment structures were breached, any potential release of radiological material would be restricted to the immediate area surrounding the reactors. In this regard, any comparison between ZNPP and “Chernobyl” or “Fukushima” is both inaccurate and misleading.

IAEA inspectors must be given immediate, unfettered access to all areas of the Russian-occupied nuclear power plant.

posted by snuffleupagus at 8:21 AM on July 6, 2023 [9 favorites]

From the Kyiv Independent:

Though the risks are lower in some ways, with the threats to the ZNPP, there is a different, dangerous new factor that was not present in previous accidents: the deliberate, man-made nature of the looming destruction.

Given this, Zhelezniak argues, a second scenario is possible. Russia could restart the work of some or all of the reactors to a fully-operational setting in advance, significantly increasing the contamination caused by a possible meltdown.

Restarting the reactors in cold shutdown can take up to a week, but can be done relatively quickly for the one in hot shutdown. In any case, the deliberate meltdown of a fully working reactor at the ZNPP will be a different beast.

“This means it will produce electricity, it will start producing iodine again, and then you will have more energy in the reactor, hotter fuel which could then burn, and so on,” said Zhelezniak, who loosely predicted an initial exclusion zone with a 40-50 kilometer radius in such a scenario.

The contamination of the surrounding area in such a scenario would still depend heavily on weather patterns, and would not result in very serious, let alone lethal, doses for civilians if they are evacuated in a timely manner, Zhelezniak said.

More importantly, the timing and concrete actions required inside the plant would make it near impossible to blame it on a Ukrainian strike.

With the above-mentioned possible scenarios for a deliberate nuclear accident at the ZNPP, the one that could come into fruition depends greatly on Moscow’s political motivations.

First, there is a question of timing. Russian and Ukrainian claims made in the last few days imply that an attack on the plant could occur in the immediate future, with Russia still in full control of the plant.

[...]

For Zhelezniak, it is the psychological idea of a nuclear disaster rather than an actual massive emission of radiation that is the most powerful tool in Russia’s hands.

“If we read one day that radiation has begun leaking from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,” he said, “especially if it happens when Ukraine takes control of the area, imagine what kind of reaction there will be from the European population.”

“Everyone will be in shock, everyone will be worried that a radioactive cloud will drift over Europe. There will be a lot of pressure on Ukraine to stop the fighting, control the situation, so there is no chance of it getting worse.”

Blowing up a nuclear power plant to deliver a political/war goal is so messed up .... if the rest of the world turns a blind eye because it's only a 40-50km exclusion zone in Ukraine; no big deal just an active nuclear terrorist state? Damn.
posted by UN at 9:36 AM on July 6, 2023 [1 favorite]

That press release gives me no comfort, because I can imagine at least one 'worst case scenario' that would result in radiation-related health consequences to the public. Can't really discuss it though because of thread restrictions on nuclear weapon discussions.
posted by achrise at 9:38 AM on July 6, 2023 [2 favorites]

It's the industry association, so I'm not taking it as disinterested truth; but I did think it was a pretty categorical statement for them to make, given that if they're wrong it will undermine their aims at home.

I'd read a separate thread on the topic; but there may not be enough to say.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:58 AM on July 6, 2023 [1 favorite]

Any news that is not, "They did it!" is good news. Though we (personally) are far enough away that it should not be an immediate danger, it's cold damn comfort.

"The Daily" from the NYTimes had a good report about Prigozhin, "Russia after the rebellion"

(YouTube link - seems easy, is it easy? Is there a preferred for the majority?)
posted by From Bklyn at 10:12 AM on July 6, 2023

I'm increasingly linking the YTified versions of things as they aren't paywalled and embed.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:26 AM on July 6, 2023

It seems like Prigozhin has documented enough extra dirty crimes on Putin to keep him at bay.
posted by Brian B. at 11:55 AM on July 6, 2023 [3 favorites]

A kompromat a day keeps the defenestrator away?
posted by porpoise at 12:14 PM on July 6, 2023 [13 favorites]

I think it may be as simple as Prigozhin could be more trouble dead as a martyr than alive. At least, had he quietly slipped into exile in Belarus like a good retired mobster. Being vocal and loud may yet try the strength of the nearest window.
posted by bonehead at 2:20 PM on July 6, 2023

I'd be curious what agency Prigozhin would report Putin's crimes to that would get him [Putin] in any meaningful trouble.

Not domestic troubles, more like toppling governments, paying foreign leaders like Trump, sabotage, naming future targets of influence, something Prigozhin would have done for him. Naming just one spy can create chaos for foreign policy or control in that country.
posted by Brian B. at 2:20 PM on July 6, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'd be curious what agency Prigozhin would report Putin's crimes to that would get him [Putin] in any meaningful trouble.

Super Putin, who reports only to Mega Putin, who reports only to Mecha Putin, who reports only to The Final Pam. But Prigozhin wouldn't be cleared to report any higher than Super Putin.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:26 PM on July 6, 2023 [3 favorites]

It wouldn't be a real trial, the outcome would already be determined. So it'd be a question of the other elites deciding Putin's number is up or partially being pressured into it after his crimes (real or otherwise, whatever sells) become public.

I mean, he keeps telling these outrageous lies for an internal audience so that audience must have some influence or he'd just tell the truth or ignore everything.
posted by VTX at 3:02 PM on July 6, 2023

I think the only kind of kompromat that would be a serious threat would be something that showed he was screwing over the other oligarchs in his power base in ways that were more than just the cost of doing business
posted by jason_steakums at 3:14 PM on July 6, 2023 [2 favorites]

I'd be curious what agency Prigozhin would report Putin's crimes to that would get him [Putin] in any meaningful trouble.

china

who knows what, but i can see where putin could really blow it if he did something china didn't like

or perhaps putin's already been told to let it go by his new overlords - or perhaps prygozhin is being supported by them

but somehow, i think china could be involved in this and called some shots - never forget that it seems to be in china's long term interest if russia loses the war or falls apart - (they could be wrong, but ...)

who benefits? whose thumb is heavy enough to tip the scales like this?

this is just not adding up
posted by pyramid termite at 3:45 PM on July 6, 2023

It's like Dick Cheney has taken over Kremlinology.

Or Hideo Kojima.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:04 PM on July 6, 2023 [1 favorite]

Can you even have kompromat on the person who leads the entirety of your country?

Maybe Putin was in the pee tape?
posted by Dip Flash at 4:19 PM on July 6, 2023 [2 favorites]

Now I'm left to try to imagine what Putin might do that China wouldn't like.


I get the impression that China wouldn't want to destabilize things so far that it interrupts the global trade their economy depends on.
posted by mollweide at 4:23 PM on July 6, 2023

It's like Dick Cheney has taken over Kremlinology. Unknown unknowns.
That was Rumsfeld.
posted by snofoam at 4:59 PM on July 6, 2023 [2 favorites]

"Our experts have carefully considered ‘worst case scenarios,’ including bombardment and deliberate sabotage of the reactors and spent fuel storage canisters. They cannot foresee a situation that would result in radiation-related health consequences to the public."

The only way that could be true is if the ANS is excluding Ukrainians from the definition of "public". Because yes, even at very worst it could never be Chornobyl because not the same disastrous design, and the cool and hot shutdowns make most of the other extreme scenarios unlikely. But there's still plenty of ways for a malicious actor to poison the local area with the big pile of spent fuel and cores.
posted by tavella at 7:09 PM on July 6, 2023

"This is the fifth Russian 17th-century."
posted by riverlife at 7:11 PM on July 6, 2023 [1 favorite]

It's built on a river.

no need to see, here.
posted by clavdivs at 9:42 PM on July 6, 2023

I'm quite serious in wondering what use any kompromat on Putin might be.

Is it that komplikated? Prigozhin has already begun pulling back the curtain over Putin's lies about the invasion of Ukraine, calling it a war, and even a botched war. He could continue by telling Russians the real numbers of lost soldiers, and the atrocities in the trenches and street fights, on both sides. Remember, the vast majority of Russians still mainly get their news from state-run media, and the believe the story about liberating Ukraine from Nazi-NATO. If Prigozhin can get through to ordinary Russians with the reality of the war, Putin is toast.

People often assume that dictators don't need popular backing. That is not true. Otherwise there would be no need for propaganda. dictators need a majority to feel comfortable enough in the system to fear the alternative more. When people realize they have nothing to loose, they will no longer be complacent. And obviously, the elite have a word here too. When Putin stops delivering, they get itchy, specially if they can see a way to keep their amassed riches without Putin.

Since I am an old Marxist, I keep on thinking that there must be some economic reason for all this (waves hands about), one that doesn't depend on essentializing "the Russians", or boiling Putin down to an ex-KGB agent. I feel there must be more to it, and I feel it has to do with the world weaning itself (far too slowly) off fossil fuels. Russia is a huge, underpopulated country that is entirely dependent on export of fossil fuels. The birth-rate is extremely low. There is immigration, but not near the rates we see in Europe and the US, or the Gulf States. So it's not like Russia can just decide to expand their agricultural output and food industry, or their tourism industry, or manufacturing sector. There's no-one there to man the machines etc. There is a real problem there, and I have to think someone in the Kremlin is thinking about it. The oligarchs are thinking about it: they have been securing their wealth by investing overseas for decades. (And that includes Putins family, if not himself). In this light, invading Ukraine might seem like a good idea.

For comparison, the simple description of Hitler is that he was a mad anti-semite who invaded the rest of Europe because he was a megalomaniac warmonger. But during his youth, much Europe was over-populated and under-nourished. Specially after WWI, Germany was starving. The expansion into the East seemed like a good idea to many others than Hitler, and a lot of the people populating those fertile lands were Jews. So there was a method to the madness, if one was of a certain mindset. I'm obviously not condoning this madness, I'm just against the type of history that assigns all the terrible things that happen to one insane person. Because that isn't helpful. There must be a reason that insane person is brought to power.
posted by mumimor at 11:53 PM on July 6, 2023 [12 favorites]

Mumimor, apart from the nationalistic aspect of the invasion (Putin claiming Ukraine as rightful russian clay, Putin wanting to leave a legacy of Making Russia Great Again), there was talk at the beginning of the war about the gas and oil reserves in Ukraine:

Gas field off the shore of Crimea
Gas reserves in east Ukraine

Notice that, interestingly, these gas fields are located in areas under occupation by the russians.

With this reserves, Ukraine would be a serious competitor to Russia as a gas provider. A gas provider that is much friendlier to Europe than Russia. And, acting as a Mafia, Putin had to eliminate this threat to his monopoly of gas with extreme violence.

There are many reasons for this invasion, but I think the economic ones are as important as the political ones.

(Sorry for the slight derail).
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 12:30 AM on July 7, 2023 [10 favorites]

mumimor, you might be interested in Peter Zeihan. He's not a Marxist, I don't think, but he's very big on constraints-- population size, natural resources, geography.

I can't figure out why Prigozhin turned back or why he's still alive.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 12:42 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]

LaVidaEsUnCarnaval, I had indeed forgotten that, and it is relevant and interesting. Specially the second link.

It still leaves some questions. The EU, led by Germany, was very ready to let Russia have the eastern provinces and Crimea for peace. And Zelensky was elected on the promise of negotiating a peace deal, even one with some concessions. Ukraine's current hard line appeared only after the big war broke out. So Putin didn't need to annex all of Ukraine in order to protect Russian near monopoly on gas supplies to Germany and some other countries.

In spite of my convictions, I do think it's fair to think Putin believes his own propaganda about NATO expansion being a threat to Russia, as do millions of Russians. I'm sure millions of Americans including American leaders believed the lies about Iraq. And actually, continuing on that vein: we as NATO countries see ourselves as a peaceful, defensive alliance. But from the outside, it could look a lot like NATO invaded a foreign country (Iraq) with no mandate. I know that wasn't what happened, but I can see how it would look like that from the outside. The same with the invasion of Afghanistan. Most of the terrorists were from Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan was equally guilty of protecting them as Afghanistan. And the US is constantly threatening to attack Iran and even go to war with China over Taiwan.

Putin obviously thought it would be easy to overpower Ukraine, and he was not alone in that belief. So did most Western leaders. So there's that. But I keep on wondering why he thought it was necessary.

Progozhin shares Putin's world view, but he thinks the war was a mistake, and he thinks the elites in Russia are detached from the ordinary people, including the soldiers at the front. He even suggested in May that there might be a revolution, and Putin weirdly agreed in his very weird speech the day of the uprising. Prigozhin's story is that Putin is either being misled or even held hostage by the military top brass. What if that is not entirely wrong? Something happened with Putin during the epidemic, where he was obviously extremely fearful and weak.

But if military top brass and/or some oligarchs pressured Putin into this war, what are their motives, aside from control of pipelines and fear of NATO expansion? Or are those things enough? And how about the timing then?
And if this theory has something to it, it wouldn't be Putin ordering a potential defenestration, and that may be why Progozhin is still walking about. Conventional military forces are not good at assassination. So many questions.
posted by mumimor at 2:06 AM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

But from the outside, it could look a lot like NATO invaded a foreign country (Iraq) with no mandate. I know that wasn't what happened, but I can see how it would look like that from the outside.

I'm in Australia. We sent troops to that shitshow, so I think that puts us inside it. I know full well that that was exactly what happened, and this is a position endorsed by the biggest protest marches in history to that point. US -> Iraq was exactly the same kind of bullshit propaganda-driven exercise for the domestic benefit of the ruling administration as Russia -> Ukraine.

The same with the invasion of Afghanistan.

Very much so. And again, if you "know that wasn't what happened" I'd be fascinated by your reasoning.

Most of the terrorists were from Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan was equally guilty of protecting them as Afghanistan. And the US is constantly threatening to attack Iran and even go to war with China over Taiwan.

Indeed. The US can waffle all it likes about the "rules based order" but when it comes right down to it the only applicable rule is that the US gives the orders.

The only way in which the moral equivalence between Putin's stance toward Ukraine and Bush's stance toward the Middle East breaks down is that Putin is not, in fact, running a fucking Empire regardless of how much he would like to believe he is.
posted by flabdablet at 2:23 AM on July 7, 2023 [5 favorites]

mumimor: There's no-one there to man the machines etc.

With the SMO not really helping to improve that, despite Russia 'rescuing' some 20.000 Ukrainian kids from (currently and previously) orccupied territory.

I like to think that at least a number of them will sufficiently resist getting brainwashed into obedient Russian citizens to compensate for the losses, instead turning into partizans.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:30 AM on July 7, 2023 [2 favorites]

know that wasn't what happened

It just means that some NATO countries rightly refused to participate, notably France, Canada and Germany, but there were others I've forgotten (Norway, on preview, but there might be more). On the other hand, there were some countries outside NATO who participated, like Australia. Hence, it was called "the coalition of the willing", rather than a NATO operation. But obviously they depended on NATO infrastructure, and I even think Germany allowed the US to use their bases there.
posted by mumimor at 2:44 AM on July 7, 2023 [2 favorites]

mumimor: Progozhin shares Putin's world view, but he thinks the war was a mistake

The way the war was conducted, rather, not the war as such. With Shoigu as the prime responsible for the lack of success and Putin just 'badly informed so unable to make the right decisions'.

Although it's likely that Prigozhin's way would have required Russia to break out the antiques and the bodged 'upgrades' to their equipment even sooner.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:45 AM on July 7, 2023 [2 favorites]

The way the war was conducted, rather, not the war as such.

In the article I posted above, he says:

Instead of demilitarization, he said, the invasion turned “Ukraine’s army into one of the most powerful in the world” and Ukrainians into “a nation known to the entire world.”
“If they, figuratively speaking, had 500 tanks at the beginning of the special operation, now they have 5,000,” he said. “If they had 20,000 fighters who knew how to fight, now they have 400,000. How did we ‘demilitarize’ it? Now it turns out that we militarized it — hell knows how.”

He is suggesting a fatal failure of intelligence.
Bakhmut is in Donetsk a region that was already controlled by Russia before 2022, so the Russian army and Wagner have lost thousands of men in a fight over land they owned before the war. It is insane.

He is also using words like invasion and war, which is illegal in Russia, though it's hard to say how much of this comes from paraphrasing.

The only way in which the moral equivalence between Putin's stance toward Ukraine and Bush's stance toward the Middle East breaks down is that Putin is not, in fact, running a fucking Empire regardless of how much he would like to believe he is.
Well, Russia is in itself an empire, consisting of many different peoples, not only Russians. I heard a Russian correspondent explain that this might soon become an issue, with nations within the nation wanting independence as they observe how the central power is just a paper tiger. Also the regime has been relying heavily on soldiers from the east of Russia, since those from the west are less likely to believe that their immediate neighbors are evil Nazis.
posted by mumimor at 3:03 AM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]

Whatever Pringles is saying now is primarily to make him look good while disparaging Shoigu and Gerasimov. He's even more 'roll over Ukraine and stomp all those kokhols into their graves' than the average attempts displayed so far.

mumimor: Bakhmut is in Donetsk a region that was already controlled by Russia before 2022

Um, no. Donetsk Oblast was just partially occupied; Bakhmut was some 15 km from the frontline, on the Ukrainian side.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:56 AM on July 7, 2023 [5 favorites]

Um, no. Donetsk Oblast was just partially occupied; Bakhmut was some 15 km from the frontline, on the Ukrainian side.

Sorry, stupid mistake. It doesn't change that the Russians have lost of lives and smashed a city for nothing.

Prigozhin is an evil person and a mob boss running a mercenary army. There is absolutely nothing that can redeem him seen from our perspective. But he is moving about Russia as a free and very alive person in spite of attempting an attack on Moscow. That is some weird shit, as W once said. So at least what I am trying to do is figure out why, and what it might mean for the future developments. Something is very confusing here, and I don't think we will gain much by sticking to caricatures and simplistic understandings of Russian culture, including criminal culture.

One thought experiment could be to take him at his word, and see where that takes us. Could that make any sense? That doesn't mean I or any others could or should see him as a speaker of truth to power in general or a revolutionary hero. He is still a war criminal who leeds a band of ex-convicts in slaughtering innocents and burning their homes to the ground.
posted by mumimor at 4:22 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]

Not only is Russia incapable of having a successful coup — they can't even purge the instigators afterwards. Incompetence on all sides.
posted by UN at 6:27 AM on July 7, 2023 [2 favorites]

posted by UN at 8:27 AM on July 7

eponysterical!
posted by jquinby at 6:37 AM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]

That is some weird shit

Well said, and that’s what unnerves me most: this is Not Normal, not even according to Russian Normal. And Not Normal usually means unprecedented in some way and thus unexpected. We live in interesting times, unfortunately.
posted by LooseFilter at 7:15 AM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]

Well said, and that’s what unnerves me most: this is Not Normal

LOL. I'm just trying to match the pieces in the puzzle...
posted by mumimor at 7:40 AM on July 7, 2023

mumimor: LOL. I'm just trying to match the pieces in the puzzle...

Several pieces are missing and have been replaced by Monopoly Chance cards roughly torn into a puzzle piece shape.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:45 AM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]

Several pieces are missing and have been replaced by Monopoly Chance cards roughly torn into a puzzle piece shape.

"If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominos will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate." --- Putin.

"Ugh." --- Prigozhin
posted by SPrintF at 7:53 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]

The latest update from ISW contributes to the diagnosis of Weird Shit happening. Prigozhin is running freely around St. Petersburg and Moscow, picking up his weapons and cash from the nice people who were watching them for him, while the Kremlin says they don't know (or care to know) where he is. Lukashenko is distancing himself from the deal that was supposedly made. Wagner forces are not in Belarus and "have a different vision for their deployment". Nobody's seen Surovikin since he was "quizzed by officials" a week ago. (I am now picturing him on a game show stage in the basement of the Lubyanka.)
posted by echo target at 8:52 AM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

I guess Surovikin being disappeared and Prigozhin running around free could back up the theory that it was a fakeout to try to get any potential traitors to reveal themselves. But while I could sort of overlook the whole 'but making Russia and Putin look like weak clowns' bit on the grounds that it is clear the Russian populace will believe whatever the propaganda tells them to, losing a bunch of very expensive aircraft and even more expensive pilots when you are running a bit short on both seems a very odd way to go about it.
posted by tavella at 9:09 AM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

I think the current Prig/Wagner situation is best explained by thinking of Russia as a mafia style state and the godfather (Putin) has lost his grip on the various families and bosses.
posted by interogative mood at 9:16 AM on July 7, 2023 [5 favorites]

The one thing I don't believe is that it was a fake-out. But I can be proven wrong yet. Surovikin being disappeared and Prigozhin running around actually confirms my above suggestion: Surovikin is a military commander, and the military can discipline him. Prigozhin is not, and either the FSB or the National Guard need to take him out. Which they won't.
Both seem to still be under Putin's control. But who knows?
posted by mumimor at 9:19 AM on July 7, 2023

Prigozhin is running freely around St. Petersburg and Moscow, picking up his weapons and cash from the nice people who were watching them for him, while the Kremlin says they don't know (or care to know) where he is.

Don't know, don't care, an astounding level of incompetence (the FSB's primary task is, after all, keeping track of people requiring tracking for a wide variety of reasons, even people as slippery as Pringles), or the not-loyal-to-Prigozhin FSB agents assigned that task decided they'd rather not run into a few Wagner heavies on the way.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:31 AM on July 7, 2023

Nobody's seen Surovikin since he was "quizzed by officials" a week ago. (I am now picturing him on a game show stage in the basement of the Lubyanka.)


I'm imagining him tailed by weather balloons in a Welsh replica of an Italian village at this point.
posted by ocschwar at 9:41 AM on July 7, 2023 [14 favorites]

NATO makes membership pledge to Ukraine as Zelenskiy drums up support by Robert Muller for Reuters. Excerpt:

The head of NATO said on Friday the military alliance would unite at a summit next week on how to bring Kyiv closer to joining, while Ukraine's president drummed up support for its membership bid on a tour of several NATO states.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Czech Republic and Slovakia a day after holding talks in Bulgaria, and was due to travel to Turkey later on Friday.

In Prague, he won a pledge of support for Ukraine to join NATO "as soon as the war (with Russia) is over", and in Sofia secured backing for membership "as soon as conditions allow".

Slovakia said the question of Kyiv's membership was "when", not "if".

At a news conference in Bratislava, Zelenskiy said he expected unity among NATO member states at the July 11-12 summit in Vilnius and wanted concrete steps on Ukraine's movement to join the alliance.

"There is strength in unity of NATO," he said, adding that undecided questions over Ukraine's future in NATO and Sweden's pending membership were "a threat to the alliance's strength".

However it remains unclear what Ukraine will be offered in the Lithuanian capital. The alliance is divided over how fast Ukraine should move towards membership, and some countries are wary of any step that might take NATO closer to war with Russia.

Zelenskiy has acknowledged that Kyiv is unlikely to be able to join NATO while at war with Russia.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed his view that Ukraine would become a member.

posted by Kattullus at 11:14 AM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

Whatever Pringles is saying now is primarily to make him look good

Once you pop off you can't stop. And on the other side, Wagner is a distributed organization; so you can't yeet just the one.

Thinking about mumimor's observations (hope your mice are well!), I suppose it isn't impossible that if something happened with Putin during the pandemic (especially something impacting his longevity) then a forever war isn't a bad way to stage-manage the handover of power to military government. If he feels that's the best way for him to protect his legacy and keep Russia moving in the direction he believes it should. Especially if the relationship between him and Shoigu goes as deep as some suggest, based on their years together in East Germany.

And, with the mention of Zeihan (who is hilariously not-Marxist) — his view is that the demographic collapse means Russia knows that this is the last chance for it to retake enough territory to control the historical invasion routes to its vast, empty and indefensible interior.

Thing is, that interior includes Ukraine, so given the war so far it's not clear that plains and steppe are still as indefensible as during all that horse-based history; or that Russia's view of its long term security remains that simplistic.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:40 AM on July 7, 2023 [2 favorites]

As more and more things have happened regarding this, many of them seemingly self-contradictory and changing drastically at a moment's notice (e.g. He's a hero! He's a traitor! We're going to prosecute him! We're letting him go to Belarus to live in exile! Who? Never heard of him! He's back in St. Petersburg! We're giving him a hundred million dollars!), I'm suspecting that the only way to understand the behavior of Putin, Prigozhin, etc. here is to realize that they don't even really understand it themselves. They're just flying by the seat of their pants in a situation of their own making (directly, in Prigozhin's case) that evolved quickly and chaotically out of their control.

The things I feel comfortable in actively disbelieving are the 4D chess takes, like P&P were collaborating in this, and everything has gone exactly according to plan.
posted by Flunkie at 2:09 PM on July 7, 2023 [13 favorites]

Syria and Russia moved to "crack down" on Wagner when Prigozin started his move toward Moscow. All communications within Wagner were cut and Russian officers flown in to take over. Wagner troops were given the option to sign contracts with Russia or leave. Some "dozens" left, surprising Syrian authorities who expected more to leave. Full story [Reuters]
posted by CCBC at 3:19 PM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

These are all Schrödinger's actions. They don't resolve until afterwards, when the reaction to them can be observed.
posted by krisjohn at 3:31 PM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

It seems to me that Wagner as an organization run by and loyal to Prigozhin, running dirty little wars and ops on two continents that in some cases directly serve Russia's interests, can partially explain why Putin is unable to disappear Prigozhin like he wishes he could.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:50 PM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]

It's from 2020, but here's a CSIS explainer that gets into Wagner's. background, structure and its relationship to the regular forces, etc. Reasonably informative, though this was odd to read now:

The last weeks of the 2020 presidential election campaign in Belarus brought an unexpected development: on July 29th, Belarusian authorities arrested 33 Russian citizens who allegedly belonged to the Wagner Group. While Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko used the story of the arrested Wagner operatives for his election campaign, accusing them of planning to interfere with the elections, independent sources revealed that, in fact, the Wagner Group has been using Belarus regularly as a transit country to various operational theaters; thus their presence on Belarusian territory was by no means extraordinary.

On July 31st, Russian President Vladimir Putin specially convened a meeting of the Russian National Security Council to discuss the issue. Thereafter, Putin raised the matter at leasttwice during his bilateral phone conversations with Lukashenko. Not surprisingly, the arrested Russian Wagner operatives were released shortly after the Belarusian elections were over, without any charges. The fact that the arrest of Wagner operatives made Putin urgently convene a special meeting of the National Security Council and that he discussed the issue directly with Lukashenko indicates that the fate of the arrested Wagner operatives was of extremely high importance to the Kremlin—which would be unlikely had Wagner not been closely connected to the Russian state.

posted by snuffleupagus at 6:20 PM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]

Gift link to a NYTimes article mainly about Lukaschenko's role in the weird thing. It's from Thursday, so it may be outdated.

I'd also like to ask (or shout out into the void): why does the US even have cluster bombs??? It is the worst decision Biden has ever made, and I don't understand it. Now Ukraine, and per extension the US will be guilty of war crimes, for no good reason. And risk escalation into other illegal weapons.
posted by mumimor at 1:04 AM on July 8, 2023 [5 favorites]

Neither the US, Ukraine, nor Russia are signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. Russia has already used cluster munitions in Ukraine — estimates are that Russia has expended tens of millions of submunitions or bomblets across Ukraine. Ukraine had their own limited stocks of cluster munitions when Russia invaded in February 2022 — it is my understanding that Ukraine has already expended these weapons. More recently Ukraine has been using cluster munitions provided by Turkey. So, the US supplying cluster munitions to Ukraine is unlikely to risk escalation in the fashion you are concerned about.
posted by RichardP at 2:52 AM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Well, that's a relief... /s
posted by mumimor at 2:54 AM on July 8, 2023 [3 favorites]

I'd also like to ask (or shout out into the void): why does the US even have cluster bombs??? It is the worst decision Biden has ever made, and I don't understand it. Now Ukraine, and per extension the US will be guilty of war crimes, for no good reason.

Parroting arguments that I was reading here:
https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/14t5b81/credibledefense_daily_megathread_july_07_2023/

The US has a stash they've been decommissioning.

The allies supplying Ukraine are starting to run a bit low on shells.

Ukrainians are chosing to use the cluster bombs, on Ukraine land, knowing that they'll have to clean them up again after. And that future Ukrainian citizens are a bit fucked.

However. The Ukrainians are trying to drive off Russian forces that are laying mines on Ukrainian land. (When they're not shelling apartment complexes directly.)

So the situation is somewhat different than the usual country B scattering unexploded ordinance across country A's land, and then country A crying war crime as the UXO keeps killing country A civilians.

Most proactively, most of the countries that have banned cluster bombs are countries that aren't worried about being invaded.

Neither the US, Ukraine, nor Russia is a signatory.

> And risk escalation into other illegal weapons.

... Seriously? What hasn't Russia done yet? They're already laying mines, and then blowing a dam that scattered some of those mines while also threatening the water supply to a nuclear power plant, then making unrelated radiological threats, using chemical weapons -https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19108, killing Ukrainian POWs https://www.kyivpost.com/post/1812, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/24/un-decries-torture-killing-of-ukrainian-and-russian-pows.

Perhaps I'm a little keyed up, but I don't think Russia needs to be provoked in order to commit the war crimes they're already gleefully committing.
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:59 AM on July 8, 2023 [13 favorites]

Well, that's a relief... /s

Yeah ... not saying that additional use of cluster munitions is a good thing, just that the US supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions isn't likely to escalatory given that both Ukraine and Russia have already used them and given that a NATO member (ie. Turkey) has already supplied Ukraine with them.
posted by RichardP at 3:00 AM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

RichardP: Russia has already used cluster munitions in Ukraine

And fairly heavily against civilian targets; Ukraine will in general try to limit civilian casualties. Which doesn't mean there won't be any now, or later when the targeted areas are liberated and bombed areas are accessible again, there simply will be people and animals getting wounded or killed by any unexploded ordnance (UXO) including cluster bomblets.

I expect the US (and Turkish) munitions to be of a higher quality, with a lower percentage of UXO than the Russian stuff even when that isn't half a century old.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:08 AM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

why does the US even have cluster bombs???

To kill enemy military and destroy enemy equipment.

If you're asking why the US didn't sign the no-cluster-bombs agreement, I think it's reasonably obvious that the US expects to be involved in (other people's) wars of national survival where (until Ukraine anyway) European powers expected to be involved in diplomacy-by-other-means.

not saying that additional use of cluster munitions is a good thing

It beats the shit out of conquest by Russia and an expansion of the ongoing cultural genocide.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:08 AM on July 8, 2023 [7 favorites]

The allies supplying Ukraine are starting to run a bit low on shells.

Yes. Not that this is something unexpected.

It seems that the RUSI article I linked about a year ago was correct in this regard.

Some recent reporting about this problem:
Europe slow to sign military procurement contracts needed to supply Ukraine with weapons

Germany only has 20,000 high explosive artillery shells left, report says

NATO expected to raise munitions stockpile targets as war depletes reserves

Restocking Western ammunition after arming Ukraine will take years -producer
posted by kmt at 5:40 AM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Reuters, yesterday: EU strikes deal to boost ammunition production to aid Ukraine. €500M deal, production to begin this month.

Russia is also having problems with the shell supply, reflected in the frequency and volume of the fires it employs, and photos that trickle out of scarily old ammo in firing positions.

I know I've heard Michael Kofman discuss the shell situation recently, but not sure on which interview panel; his sense was that the shortages are real on both sides but not enough to have a decisive effect.

On the cluster bombs – as a category, they aren't escalatory in the context of this war, but the unexploded ordnance problem with the bomblets is very real. The air-dropped CBU-87 ('combined effect munition') has a 5% - 10% failure rate (depending on whether you trust the DoD or NGO cleanup org numbers), meaning every time they are employed each one leaves behind somewhere between 10 and 20 undetonated bomblets. I think there may be an improved version that's a little better, but like other stockpiled NATO air-delivered munitions these probably don't matter until F-16s show up.

Ukraine is said to have asked for Rockeye (an older family of aerial cluster weapons originally dating back to Vietnam); The Drive claims that it wants those to repurpose the submunitions to arm drones.

The M864 artillery shells Biden did just authorize have around a 3% acknowledged failure rate, so two or three unexploded bomblets for each shell fired. Which is still high enough that Biden is going to have to issue some executive order to get around a Congressional (not international) ban on exporting anything with more than a 1% 'dud rate.' (Adopted under Obama.) Not sure whether that implies Ukraine is also getting the "Dual-Purpose Conventional Improved Munition (DPCIM)" system it asked for (per The Drive's article) as a part of the M864, or whether it's an older generation.

Meanwhile, Russia has been prolific in its use cluster or other scatterable munitions, including the banned "butterfly" scatterable mines — known to attract children. So, if Ukraine says they need them knowing it's going to make the cleanup of their own territory even more difficult, they should get them.

Or, at least some of them, considering the different types. Recycling Rockeye submunitions for individual use seems unobjectionable, it's just a better air-dropped anti-armor grenade at that point and that manner of attack probably has the lowest collateral damage possible in taking out armor, to everyone nearby (on both sides) and the environment.

Standard anti-armor cluster weapons are probably less objectionable both in terms of their brutality and the lasting hazard. They have fewer submunitions and they way they work means less lingering danger. Mine-laying anti-personnel (the 'Gator' system for the US), on the other end of the spectrum. In the middle you have the 'combined effects' which are awful to read about, but not really that different in use than what happens if unprotected infantry is accurately shelled with regular artillery or hit with a large enough old school 'iron bomb.'

ABC (of AU): Landmines, booby traps and tripwires — the hidden threats covering one-third of Ukraine. [June 16]

CAT-UXO page on submunitions.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:59 AM on July 8, 2023 [10 favorites]

In terms of the amount of unexploded conventional bombs/shells, landmines and existing cluster
Bombs used in Ukraine these additional ones provided by the USA are not going to make much difference in terms of the long term threats to civilians. At least the US cluster bombs have been upgraded in the last decade to become inert after a few years of being buried in the mud.

This isn’t the US invading a country and using cluster bombs. Ukraine knows the consequences of these weapons and they will use them on their territory.
posted by interogative mood at 8:04 AM on July 8, 2023 [3 favorites]

With the "problem" they will have at the end of hostilities and the very high tech developer base, this war may result in a leap forward in landmine and (other lost munitions) decommissioning technology.
posted by sammyo at 8:53 AM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

"Now Ukraine, and per extension the US will be guilty of war crimes, for no good reason. And risk escalation into other illegal weapons."

Cluster bombs are not illegal (none of the parties involved have signed a convention against them), nor is using them against military targets a war crime. Ukraine will be using them in already heavily mined areas to clear out Russians. They have made the calculation that more people will suffer under Russian occupation and attack than will suffer in the future from a minor addition on top of the mines (and cluster bombs) that Russia has already saturated the land with. They are the only ones who are qualified to make this determination, so all the high-minded whining from outside can stop.
posted by tavella at 9:17 AM on July 8, 2023 [14 favorites]

incidentally, Ukraine has been accused of using anti-personnel mines, which the country did actually commit not to use.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:26 AM on July 8, 2023

Yes, there is some nuance; Ukraine is a signatory of the 1997 Ottowa Treaty, which would prevent them from using anti-personnel mines, but they're being invaded by a nation that isn't a signatory and employed them immediately. So showing restraint would be literally self-defeating.

Past that, there's the Geneva Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, to which Russia and Ukraine seem to be equally subscribed, though I'm no expert on which weapons are covered. And again, in context, Russia invaded and is employing weapons like their new "bouncing mine" (the POM-3) which is scattered from rocket artillery, so the same basic logic applies.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:32 AM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

showing restraint would be literally self-defeating

You don't, legally speaking, actually get a free pass to use prohibited weapons in self-defense. The US refuses to sign the treaty, on the objection that we need such mines to defend South Korea. We wouldn't be able to legally sign the treaty and then say "oh but we'd still use them in self-defense."

The morality of using anti-personnel mines in Ukraine's situation is a different question.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:41 AM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

The morality of Ukraine's use in context and against Russia is explicitly what I was addressing, and that it isn't a signatory is significant there. Do the legalities make restraint any less literally self-defeating? No.

And apparently you can use them anyway. The heavenly host did not descend to prevent Ukraine from doing so, to the extent it has. You sign conventions so your people enjoy the same protections as the enemy.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:49 AM on July 8, 2023

leave-russia.org

This brutal war and military crimes of Russian troops caused a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine with thousands civilians killed and millions becoming refuges. As a reaction to this act of aggression, many international companies decided to leave the Russian market, while some others continue doing business there as usual. We track such decisions of companies and urge them to stop funding the war.

[Not sure if this has been posted before. Some big names still on this list, including recently reported by Reuters Austrian bank Raiffeisen.]
posted by UN at 10:55 AM on July 8, 2023 [4 favorites]

So, Ukrainian children not killed or kidnapped by Russia, nor those made refugee abroad (the "lucky ones to survive") can be maimed and killed by the unexploded cluster bombs they pick up, deliberately dropped in Ukrainian territory!
posted by atomicstone at 11:27 AM on July 8, 2023

Just to review:
- Russia illegally invaded ukrsine
- Russia is torturing and murdering civilians in occupied areas as well as conducting ethnic cleansing
- Russia has kidnapped thousands of Ukrainian children and had then adopted by Russian families
- Russia regularly bombs civilian apartments and infrastructure.
- Russia blew of the Kahkovka dam killing thousands of people and creating an huge environment catastrophe
- Russia’s disruption of Ukrainian agricultural exports is causing food scarcity and starvation abound the world
- Russia has filmed its own soldiers torturing Ukrainian soldiers and civilians including castersriond and beheadings of POWs.
- It has refused to allow the Red Cross routine access to POWs.
- Russian leaders make regular threats to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and NATO.
- Russia is threatening to destroy Europes largest nuclear power plant and restricting the International Atomic Energy Agency from doing its job to try to assess and report back to the UN the status of the plant.
posted by interogative mood at 11:40 AM on July 8, 2023 [10 favorites]

Am I the only one who's been watching Vlad Vexler?

He's a Russian expat (since childhood), now a political philosopher and self-styled 'public intellectual' living in the UK.

He just uploaded an informal talk on this issue on his secondary channel, discussing principles vs. platitudes among other things.

For contrast, here's another reaction from Dylan Burns, a former 'Twitch debate space' content creator who in the last year stopped doing that to go to Ukraine and among other things, participate in de-mining efforts.

Both are emphatically pro-Ukraine.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:55 AM on July 8, 2023

So, Ukrainian children not killed or kidnapped by Russia, nor those made refugee abroad (the "lucky ones to survive") can be maimed and killed by the unexploded cluster bombs they pick up, deliberately dropped in Ukrainian territory! (emphasis mine)

The claim that Ukraine 'deliberately' drops any weapons on any of its territory that will kill its citizens in the present or future is indescribably wrong and unjust.

When Ukraine has the tools it needs to defend itself, it at least has the possibility to clean up before people return to those places scarred by war. If it can't defend itself, it won't have access to those places or to the bodies of those killed directly by Russian bombs and soldiers.

It's not even a moral dilemma.
posted by UN at 12:11 PM on July 8, 2023 [11 favorites]

I am not claiming anything about Ukraine. It's the nature of cluster bombs. They fall, they don't all explode, their shape is enticing to kids.
posted by atomicstone at 3:02 PM on July 8, 2023

What Bill Browder thinks

I'm sorry, I started the cluster bomb derail, and I'm not going to engage because it's one of those things we will never agree on. And I have theories about how that is, but I won't even offer those. But this interview brings us back to the very weird thing with Prigozhin and Putin.
posted by mumimor at 3:07 PM on July 8, 2023 [3 favorites]

Ryan McBeth (ex artillery NCO) has some thoughts about the cluster munitions we're sending.

Among other things, he's surprised we had any because they weren't even talked about when he was serving (relatively recently.) He thinks the Ukrainians will use some as intended, but break the rest open and deliver the submunitions directly via drone. He goes over the reasons, but one is that drone delivery would reduce the dud rate.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:36 PM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

I have no strong opinion about the supply of cluster bombs in this specific situation, but can we try to keep the scope of this post to the mutiny and resulting events? A separate post about cluster bombs should be fairly easy to make for interested parties, just like one about what's going on with Türkiye's sudden change in posture, or one about a potential North Caucasus' independence movement now that Russia is seen as being weakened.
posted by krisjohn at 4:38 PM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]

Oh, ok. Carry on.
posted by krisjohn at 6:24 PM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'm not convinced anyone really needs to hear the US talk about how awesome cluster bombs are

"As part of US anti-communist operations in south-east Asia – commonly known as the Vietnam war – between 1964 and 1973, American pilots flew 580,000 attack sorties over Laos, an average of one planeload of bombs every eight minutes for almost a decade. By the time the last US bombs fell in April 1973, a total of 2,093,100 tonnes of ordnance had rained down on this neutral country."

"Of the 260 million cluster bomblets that rained down on Laos between 1964 and 1973, particularly on Xieng Khouang province, 80 million failed to explode."
posted by thatwhichfalls at 7:12 PM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]

Feel free to make another thread about what happened in Laos nearly 50 years ago. Or explain why Ukraine shouldn't be able to defend itself from Russian imperialism, because the US also did a different imperialism on the other side of the globe during the Cold War.

Last I checked, we didn't do this kind of Whataboutism in these threads.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:23 PM on July 8, 2023 [13 favorites]

An outcry happens every time a new class of weapons is sent to Ukraine: anti-tank weapons, tanks, long range rockets, artillery, aircraft, etc. There’s always a reason not to send weapons – those weapons kill people in any case. Ukrainians have lead the way in confidently pushing back against the criticism, in my view, have been right every time. Unfortunately, the back-and-forth has slowed Ukraine in getting the help they need. That is extremely unfortunate.

From the outside, it’s easy to be choosy. If there existed a wunderwaffe that made Russian soldiers happily dance back home, overthrow their dictator and discover democracy all without a single shot fired, yay let’s send it! Unfortunately, that wunderwaffe does not exist.

Let Ukrainian soldiers be the ones to have a choice how they defend their country. They have mothers, fathers, children, siblings. They’re fighting inch by inch in the trenches against something infinitely more dangerous than an unexploded munition in a field — they’re fighting against invaders actively trying to kill them. If cluster bombs make their mission safer or more successful, they should have them. If it means they can win the war faster and come back home to their families, send those weapons now. If it means they’ll need to clear more munitions from their land during and after the war — let them make that choice.

Nobody in Ukraine is ignorant about the dangers of having to clear out bombs in their country. Nobody in the west understands the problem better than they do. They’re living with that fact every. single. day. They get it — we’re not helping by lecturing them on what’s good for their children.
posted by UN at 2:30 AM on July 9, 2023 [12 favorites]

Reuters, yesterday: EU strikes deal to boost ammunition production to aid Ukraine. €500M deal, production to begin this month.

Note that the article doesn't talk about production volumes. Rather:

Under the deal, subsidies will be given to European arms firms to increase their production capacities and tackle identified bottlenecks.

Emphasis mine.

Without knowing more about the deal, I'd guess this is more about reestablishing production capacity, along the lines of Raytheon Calls in Retirees to Help Restart Stinger Missile Production

Considering Rheinmetall's 3.3k / shell price, the 500M deal would mean approx 150k shells. Even with the previous, cheaper price, this amount would mean around 200-250k shells.

The US & allies supplied more than 2 million shells as of March 2023 but even with this Ukraine was unable to match the Russian rate of fire.

Not that Russia is in great shaper either. A couple of weeks ago I saw rumours that at a certain stage China supplied massive amounts of artillery propellant, as Russia was running low on gunpowder/cordite instead of HE shells. Apparently there's only one plant left in Russia producing it, and it was in a pretty bad shape. But, who knows? Fog of war, propaganda, and so on.
posted by kmt at 2:44 AM on July 9, 2023 [5 favorites]

Also, speaking of rumours, here's a good article about Telegram from the Verge:

For now, Telegram remains a living document of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the Russian government’s relationship with the platform has been an uneasy one.

After fruitless attempts to block Telegram for refusing to hand over encryption keys to the Federal Security Service (FSB) in 2018, Russian communications regulator Roskomnadzor lifted a ban on the platform in 2020. The agency confirmed that the app would not be blocked in October 2022. Instead, Russian authorities have tried different tactics. Investigations from both domestic and international news outlets have shown that Russia is working on software that can track anonymous Telegram users.

posted by kmt at 4:14 AM on July 9, 2023 [2 favorites]

If you have subjects you'd like to have discussed here, please post

"Ukraine is running out of ammunition" comes out in the discussions about cluster bombs. How can this be? How can the western hegemony not be able to have a steady stream of supply jets filled with stuff that goes bang? Geopolitics? Internal politics? Are the "powers" trying to invoke some kind of attritrition on both sides? Peace time incompetence? Billions in equipment was just abandoned in Afghanistan. Reality kept secret? Just Bloviation? Morality set aside for the moment, it just makes me crazy that there isn't better efficiency.
posted by sammyo at 7:41 AM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

Mostly no one has been running this sort of war - with a wide conventional front, tanks and guns and trenches - for decades. And since the end of the Cold War everyone's preparations centered on the "smash then get mired in guerillas" model that's been the modus operandi of most large scale conflicts since Vietnam. People were prepared for months of all out war, not 500 days and counting of artillery barrages, and a lack of belief in Ukraine means that the production lines are only now getting spun up when they should have been a year ago. Ukrainians literally drew down NATO's Cold War stash.

Incidentally 500 days of the war was yesterday and Zelenskyy marked it by:
- visiting Snake Island of "Russian warship go fuck yourself" fame
- bringing home the commanders of the Azovstal siege defenders from their exile in Turkey
- wishing Zaluzhny a happy birthday

Today he met with Duda to commemorate the victims of the Volhyn Massacre. Poland's support for Ukraine is internationally unwavering but this got in the way of some rabid right wingers in Poland who kept on and on about lack of acknowledgement of Volhyn. (It's interesting to compare Wikipedia articles - the Polish one uses the genocide word, though the common Polish name is Rzeź, butchery.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 8:08 AM on July 9, 2023 [10 favorites]

Incidentally 500 days of the war was yesterday

500 days of the full scale Russian invasion. The war has been going on since February 20, 2014. Which makes the West's failure to scale up production even more embarrassing.
posted by srboisvert at 9:14 AM on July 9, 2023 [8 favorites]

How can the western hegemony not be able to have a steady stream of supply jets filled with stuff that goes bang?

It's a bunch of factors but the big one is that United States was mostly just offloading its obsolete/expiring armaments and withholding much more modern and heavy stuff that the US would actually use themselves in a current conflict which would involve jets/fighter bombers and naval force projection. The more adjacent European states are much more willing to run down their (much smaller) stockpiles with the strategic understanding that fighting Russia in Ukraine is obviously better for them than fighting Russia on their own territory. Many of them are also willing to supply their fighter jets and longer range missiles but are being held back by their arrangements with their primary arms dealer (United States).

So Ukraine ends up fighting an at least partially old fashioned war requiring industrial mobilization producing lower tech weaponry while being slow trickle armed by modern militaries that have largely moved on from that model, perhaps foolishly in retrospect, to one that is more based on overwhelming technical superiority.
posted by srboisvert at 9:35 AM on July 9, 2023 [3 favorites]

On the size of the stockpiles, NATO warplans for the defense of Europe don't feature a two-year war. More like days and weeks. (And that expects resupply from the US.) Then it's Strangelove time.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:56 AM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

In terms of the amount of unexploded conventional bombs/shells, landmines and existing cluster
Bombs used in Ukraine these additional ones provided by the USA are not going to make much difference in terms of the long term threats to civilians. At least the US cluster bombs have been upgraded in the last decade to become inert after a few years of being buried in the mud.

This isn’t the US invading a country and using cluster bombs. Ukraine knows the consequences of these weapons and they will use them on their territory.

One hard lesson from the Gulf Wars is that your own troops may have to go through territory you have hit with cluster munitions. There were American friendly fire casualties from this.

But yeah it is a very small part of a huge problem for Ukraine given how much of the fronts in Ukraine have already been heavily mined and just how much unexploded ordinance there would be even if the dud rates from both sides was incredibly low. Plus you just know that Russia isn't documenting their minefields so even if they were to completely surrender they probably still couldn't tell Ukraine where the mines are. Ukraine will be reaping the Iron Harvest for a long time regardless of what weapons they are given.
posted by srboisvert at 10:00 AM on July 9, 2023 [5 favorites]

So, is farming going on this year in Ukraine?

Wheat prices jumped [WSJ] when the dam went, Ukraine said it could loose 'millions of tons' [Reuters] of production; but I'm not sure what total normal productions that's relative to.

An assessment by two professors for The Conversation, from a couple days ago.

Not much in the way of concrete statements about global effects beyond 'probably going to be bad.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:49 AM on July 9, 2023

Jacen, you are telling the truth in a convoluted manner: we need to aid Ukraine to make this a modern war. Which includes a lot of difficult decisions. To be frank about it, Ukraine needs to be able to demolish bases in Russia. Instead, we are delivering cluster bombs to be used on Ukrainian ground. I completely understand all the reasons we are not delivering the hardware necessary for Ukranian attacks into Russia. On the other hand, if this was any other conflict (not a small non-aligned country against a superpower), it would be natural for the attacked country to aim for blocking the attackers airports and military bases.
posted by mumimor at 10:54 AM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

Yeah, the Kherson region is pretty screwed by the dam breaking. But the whole region was in Russian hands last harvest and Ukraine still exported enough wheat that even the portion that fell off the back of the train on the way to Gdansk destabilised the Polish grain market. The sea fight also has gone into more or less stalemate so the sea routes are established. Honestly I suspect that if not for the air raids, most of Ukraine would be better off than last year - mine removal near Kyiv being mych further along, for example.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:56 AM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

Aussie Youtuber and military analyst Perun has a new video up on “How Wars End” for this looking for a 60 minute slide show.
posted by interogative mood at 12:03 PM on July 9, 2023 [3 favorites]

I just don't know how much payoff the unleased aggression would truly yield in a world increasingly opposed to war.

Aggression? A counterattack across the border of an invading, occupying force that wants to wipe you out is not aggression. There is only one aggressor in this war.

Probably fewer dead Ukrainians (and ultimately, Russians) is preferable even if it comes with some finger-wagging.

As far as I'm concerned, Ukraine could roll up Transnistria and hand it back to Moldova and there would be nothing to complain about.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:36 PM on July 9, 2023 [7 favorites]

Ukraine can win (recovering its territory, not having any incidents of Russian aggression) without going into Russia. It's just harder. We haven't even given Ukraine the ability to strike Russian supply depots inside all of Ukraine. With better air power, ability to reach the protected supply lines and stations, Ukraine can still push Russia out of Ukraine.

Ukrainian air power, regardless of its composition, would be vulnerable to Russian based SAMS and all of Ukraine would remain just as vulnerable to Russian missiles and drone attacks as it is right now if Ukraine follows the rule that Russian territory is off limits (and they have already broken this rule several times with their own domestically manufactured weaponry). Besides Russia in their own minds officially annexed the territory Ukraine is already currently fighting in. So the "real" border recognized internationally is technically meaningless to Russia and only meaningful to the the pearl clutching international community.

I don't believe this war ends until Ukraine is in NATO even if the Ukranians shock the world with great progress in the next year simply because Russia has long enough range weaponry they can continue to terrorize Ukraine indefinitely.
posted by srboisvert at 3:58 PM on July 9, 2023 [2 favorites]

It’s certainly the thing that stops it starting go again five minutes later if the war “stops”.
posted by Artw at 4:21 PM on July 9, 2023

Turkey has just said that if Russian won’t extend the grain export deal then Turkey will use its Navy to escort Ukrainian grain. This and the endorsement of membership for Ukraine in NATO asap by Turkey are major shifts away from their more neutral position until now.
posted by interogative mood at 5:40 PM on July 9, 2023 [5 favorites]

Huh. WTF is going on with Edrogan remains a complete mystery to me. If you’d have asked me pre-invasion I would have expected him to be a solid Putin stooge.
posted by Artw at 5:55 PM on July 9, 2023 [5 favorites]

Along with Prigozhin's adventure and Lukashenko sort of being the most visible leader during the whole thing, Erdogan's moves are definitely helping to make me wonder just how much of a grasp on power Putin has right now.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:14 PM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

Turkey also just returned the Azovstal commanders.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy brings home Azovstal commanders from Turkey

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has returned home, from a visit to Turkey, with five commanders of Ukraine’s former garrison in Mariupol, a move Russia said violated the terms of a prisoner exchange deal engineered last year.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:10 PM on July 9, 2023 [3 favorites]

Edrogan in Türkiye and Lukashenko in Belarus can see which way the wind is blowing. Siding with Russia is being on the losing side. Russia has enemies. Not NATO and the US, but the various occupied territories they've been intruding into in that band between Russia and the edge of the old Soviet Union.

OPINION: Turkey's Russia

The North Caucasus remains captive to Russia, but the South Caucasus left the Soviet Union after it fell apart in 1992 and includes Armenia, fossil-fuel rich Azerbaijan (formerly part of Iran), and the Republic of Georgia. The South has a population of 17.5 million and each of its three “free” countries has had to deal with interference over the years by Russia. In 2008, Russia snatched 20 per cent of Georgia after a brief war, and, more recently, Moscow has been obstructing oil and gas shipments from Azerbaijan to Europe, and been stirring up ethnic and territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Also, "Russia" is not a unified nation. It's a haves and have-nots land full of systemically exploited ethnic groups.

The war against Ukraine has upset those who live in Russia’s far-flung, impoverished regions. In the North Caucasus, for instance, there have been widespread protests against Russia’s aggressive military mobilization of their sons. Many Chechens and others also sympathize with Ukraine’s struggle against Russia, some even joining Ukraine’s armed forces to fight Russia. Stoking their resentment are revelations that the death rates of non-Slavic soldiers drafted into the Russian army are dramatically higher among Turkic youth and young Mongols from Russia’s Far Eastern regions than for Russian ethnic men who live in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

The thing is, Russia is full of grey areas, lands it considers its where the residents might not agree. Lands where the people have had enough of being cannon fodder; sacrificed to save important Russians. Which side of what border, as per what date, isn't going to have much effect on the likelihood of those areas causing problems to Moscow/Putin, nor on the magnitude of those problems. If these territories believe this is the best opportunity they have for freedom, they're going to go for it.
posted by krisjohn at 7:20 PM on July 9, 2023 [7 favorites]

Erdogan promotes Turkey's (and his) interests. It's not in his interest to have the Russians dominate any more of the Black Sea than they do, and it's in his interest to have Ukraine as a strong ally should Russia ever get stroppy about the Dardanelles, rather than have their military and economy power subsumed into Russia's. Sure, that scenario isn't likely as long as NATO is around, but it was only a few years ago that Trump was trying to pull US out of NATO. So for long term scenarios, I'm pretty sure Turkey wants to have plans for if they have to go it alone without Article 5. But they also are perfectly happy to use Russia to extract concessions from NATO/EU/etc when it's convenient for them.
posted by tavella at 8:03 PM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

Did we already know that Aleksey Avramenko, Belarusian Minister of Transport and Communications and ally to Russian President Vladimir Putin, passed away suddenly this week under mysterious circumstances. or is it new news?
posted by krisjohn at 8:45 PM on July 9, 2023 [2 favorites]

"We" as in us here? No.

I read it about a week ago from a single unknown to me source. Trying to find it on one of the larger news sites (Guardian, Frankfurter Allgemeine, NYT) didn't yield anything, so I let it go.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:25 PM on July 9, 2023

Yes, we as in us.

For those not sure why he is notable, you might remember him from such things as the Ryan Air flight hijacking that was used to arrest a political opponent.
posted by krisjohn at 11:57 PM on July 9, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'd guess Erdogan doesn't like the idea of another country deciding who gets in and out of the Black Sea. If Russia decides it doesn't want to negotiate with Turkey on Ukraine port access, and Turkey does nothing, Russia will have secured itself practically full power over the sea. So yeah, Turkey will move from friendly negotiation to something more firm. IMO Turkey (and NATO) have been slow to find a response to Russian power grabs in the Black Sea.

See:

A ‘Russian lake’ takes shape
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022, put Moscow’s increasingly assertive behavior into sharp focus: the Black Sea had become a “Russian lake.” Contrary to international law, Russia blocked freedom of navigation in the inland Sea of Azov and the right to innocent passage in Ukraine’s territorial waters off Crimea.
posted by UN at 12:31 AM on July 10, 2023 [4 favorites]

A very detailed statistical analysis from Meduza estimating the true number of Russian casualties based on "side-channel data": Bring out your dead A joint investigation by Meduza and Mediazona reveals the true number of Russian soldiers killed so far in the invasion of Ukraine:

Roughly 47,000. That is how many Russian soldiers have died so far in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to a joint study by journalists at Meduza and Mediazona and Tubingen University statistician Dmitry Kobak. Analyzing existing reports about published obituaries, mortality data from the Federal State Statistics Service, and extensive records from the National Probate Registry, we estimate that between 40,000 and 55,000 Russian men under the age of 50 died fighting in Ukraine by May 27, 2023. When factoring in the number of men wounded so seriously that they did not return to military service, Russia’s total casualty count rises to at least 125,000 soldiers, based on our calculations. (This figure does not include missing or captured soldiers or Ukrainian nationals fighting with Russian proxy forces based in Donetsk and Luhansk.)

...

The numbers presented below are remarkable not just because they signify the tens of thousands of men Vladimir Putin has sent to die in a war of aggression but also because the authorities have labored tirelessly to conceal the invasion’s true and growing costs to Russians themselves.

Complete with methodology section, caveats and controls for confounding variables:

Russia’s Probate Registry records inheritance cases, not deaths. Not everyone who dies leaves behind property or persons to receive it, which means probate data is not the same as death records. Also, while each inheritance claim signifies a person’s death, it does not record the cause of death.

Inheritance cases also fail to capture Russia’s broader losses in the war. Injured, captured, and missing soldiers aren’t reflected in the Probate Registry, so Meduza and Mediazona must rely on other analytical approaches to estimate these figures, such as studying “leaked” military documents and treasury records on special compensation payments.

"TLDR": twitter thread with commentary by Jeremy Morris.

"I'm a statistician, I want to know more": github repo with code and data used for the article.

posted by kmt at 4:31 AM on July 10, 2023 [4 favorites]

Saturday I stumbled upon a provocative piece from MSNBC suggesting the coup maybe hasn't ended and that is why Proghozhin is still running around. (And, though it happened afterwards, Erdogan's is effectively flipping Putin off.) For all it's click-bait-y quality, plausible.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:38 AM on July 10, 2023

Putin Met With Prigozhin Days After Failed Mutiny, Kremlin Says NYTimes link, sorry..
posted by mumimor at 5:50 AM on July 10, 2023

I wonder how long the table was at that meeting ...
posted by UN at 5:59 AM on July 10, 2023

I wonder what the practical limits on portage by rail are.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:34 AM on July 10, 2023

Or, I suppose, by highway, like when the space shuttle transited Los Angeles. The US has three Cyclone class patrol boats awaiting sale or scrapping that could be given to Ukraine or other allies on the Black Sea for the escort role. The last two in service were just decommissioned this March. (They are a little longer than the Shuttle.) They're in iffy shape, though. Either way, seems like something that size can be moved over roads in a pinch. (But maybe ships that size can transit the Bosporous anyway, under the convention's limits.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:58 AM on July 10, 2023 [2 favorites]

Rheinmetall will open an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine within the next 12 weeks, shrugging off concerns other Western defense companies reportedly have about building a presence in the country while it is at war with Russia.

Apparently this is not yet the proposed Leopard factory reported a couple of months ago.
posted by UN at 8:08 AM on July 10, 2023 [2 favorites]

snuffleupagus: Either way, seems like something that size can be moved over roads in a pinch.

Doubtful. They're over four times as heavy as an orbiter, and about 1.5 times as long. It's doable, but over the distances involved you'd definitely take long looks at any alternative that doesn't involve moving them overland.

Like possibly removing their armament and if necessary some of the more juicy electronics, which can then be transported by road/rail, and asking the Turks if they'd be OK with them coming through the Bosphorus like that.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:13 AM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

Makes sense. Giving them (or something more serviceable) to Ukraine right now wouldn't make much sense given open hostilities, but if they were Romanian or Bulgarian flagged then that might be a way to bring shipping from Odesa down the coast under some additional protection. Even if the boats/ships themselves aren't meant for real combat, they could be supported from air or shore.

Can't really expect those economies to find the kind of money to embark on shipbuilding to push back against Russian control, and as noted Turkey's policy has been changeable.

I guess the other alternative would be building a higher capacity rail link from Odesa into Romania, but that's a big project for a war we keep hoping will end sooner than later, and just for trans-shipping to a different port not far down the coast.

Longer term there's Erdogan's Istanbul Canal project, but it's tremendously unpopular and the initial construction of the first bridge along its path has already been delayed; unclear whether anyone really expects it to get done. Though this situation could change that.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:28 AM on July 10, 2023

war into Russia. The lessons of Sherman and Patton and Colin Powell say that yes, it's crucial to decisively winning a war. Logistics is key, and all armies run on their stomachs. It would end a nasty,

I'm fairly sure that there has been no official Ukrainian statement that they have ever attacked inside of Russia, I could be wrong there. Sherman and patton were good at logistics it's because they had logistics. both commanders knew when they started both their Wars early that most important strategic and tactical disadvantage that they faced was morale. positing that taking the war to Russia is one of those aspects of War that remains Gray. I'd posit it would be for a morale reasons, morale being one key aspect to a wartime government most likely one of the most successful in modern history. one example in the early days the War, I saw an obscure article about hypersonic aircraft from the Soviet area that got shot down, landing in a foreign country and no one really claimed responsibility but everybody sort of knew who it was. that's the gray area of war deniability with a smile or nNothing. The people and their armies elan is kept going because nothing is more important to a soldier on the front than knowing that their family in the rear is being well protected.
posted by clavdivs at 11:35 AM on July 10, 2023

more love and rockets help also.
posted by clavdivs at 11:36 AM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

Erdogan says the E.U. must ‘clear the way’ for Turkey to join before it will agree to let Sweden into NATO.
posted by Flunkie at 12:03 PM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

fairly sure that there has been no official Ukrainian statement that they have ever attacked inside of Russia

Depends on whether you want to consider the cross-border forays into the Belgorod area a Ukrainian operation or not.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:05 PM on July 10, 2023

"Official", it says, and I'm pretty sure the official line on those is something along the lines of "We're not involved, but hey, cool".
posted by Flunkie at 12:09 PM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

snuffleupagus: I guess the other alternative would be building a higher capacity rail link from Odesa into Romania,

For the moment that's rather fraught too: one existing rail link went over a headland and a bridge between Karolino-Buhaz and Zatoka, which has been targeted at least once with Russian missiles launched from one of their Black Sea Fleet vessels; two more pass trough Transnistria and Moldova before entering Romania, and a new one just north of the Dniestr National Park would have to pass through Moldova (but not Transnistria) as well. That one would still be in range of the more capable BSF missiles, although I don't know how much of what they still have.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:10 PM on July 10, 2023 [2 favorites]

clavdivs: I'm fairly sure that there has been no official Ukrainian statement that they have ever attacked inside of Russia

The TU-143 attacks on the airbases at Engels and Saratov, and the long-distance drone attacks on several refineries and fuel depots, among others at Tuapse and Kramatorsk may not have been officially acknowledged by Ukraine (haven't checked) but it'd be hard to deny it wasn't them.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:24 PM on July 10, 2023

Krasnodar, not Kramatorsk.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:30 PM on July 10, 2023

BBC: Turkey leader Erdogan will back Sweden joining Nato - Stoltenberg

Turkey's President Erdogan agrees to support Sweden's bid to join Nato, the alliance's chief Jens Stoltenberg says

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:34 PM on July 10, 2023 [2 favorites]

"Official", it says, and I'm pretty sure the official line on those is something along the lines of "We're not involved, but hey, cool".

Yes, I can read, and it's stated explicitly in the article, and I said it too. But we are having a discussion here about what's actually happening in the world; and that is a force armed by and operating in cooperation with Ukraine and based from it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:35 PM on July 10, 2023

... uh, ok then?
posted by Flunkie at 12:39 PM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

BBC: Turkey leader Erdogan will back Sweden joining Nato - Stoltenberg

Oh, I wish they had more detail available (right now it's basically just "check back later for more on this breaking news")... I can't help but wonder if this is something real from Erdogan or just an extremely rosy interpretation from Stoltenberg. It was just today that Erdogan said no Sweden/NATO until Turkey/EU.
posted by Flunkie at 12:45 PM on July 10, 2023

LOL, so I checked back later (i.e. after a minute) for more on this breaking news, and:

At a briefing, he said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would forward Sweden's bid to the Turkish parliament and "ensure ratification".

Earlier, he had appeared to suggest Turkey would back Sweden if the EU re-opened membership talks with Ankara.

Seems potentially real! Still not 100% clear to me that it's not a rosy interpretation, but it at least seems somewhat harder to fit into a rosy interpretation!
posted by Flunkie at 12:48 PM on July 10, 2023

Ooooh, NYT has it now too, and it looks even more real. They're characterizing Turkey's position as a "rapid reversal", and say that:

The two countries agreed that “counterterrorism cooperation is a long-term effort, which will continue beyond Sweden’s accession to NATO,” the NATO statement said.

posted by Flunkie at 12:50 PM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

CNN, Bloomberg, WSJ too.

FT's saying it's tied to Turkey joining the EU.

“I call out to those who have kept Turkey waiting at the EU door for more than 50 years, pave the way for Turkey and we will pave the way for Sweden,” Erdoğan had said at a press conference earlier on Monday as he departed for the Vilnius summit. 

Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, had responded that the issues of Sweden’s Nato membership and Turkey’s EU hopes were “not related”, comments echoed by the European Commission.

So, we'll see, I guess.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:53 PM on July 10, 2023

FT's behind a firewall for me. How recent is that article? Because that's what Erdogan was saying earlier today (Scholz too).
posted by Flunkie at 12:59 PM on July 10, 2023

Originally posted earlier today, but updated in some way ~15m ago. Nothing definitive in its language. Archive link.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:07 PM on July 10, 2023

“Barely a democracy” and “weird attitude towards a genocide they were totally a part of” make it a bad fit for the EU, but Hungary and Poland are members so who knows.
posted by Artw at 1:41 PM on July 10, 2023 [5 favorites]

According to Swedish newspapers, the Swedish minister of state has agreed that Sweden will be supportive of Turkey joining the EU.
posted by boogieboy at 1:43 PM on July 10, 2023

Artw there’s also the Turkey/Greece disputes which will be even more interesting if if Turkey is in the EU.
posted by boogieboy at 1:45 PM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

I guess with the UK much diminished there’s an increased need for “asshole country that blocks everything”.
posted by Artw at 1:47 PM on July 10, 2023 [6 favorites]

It would certainly help Erdogan out with the whole currency crisis thing, which has not improved since the elections. Though you'd expect there would be a considerable timeline for any accession process.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:48 PM on July 10, 2023

Meduza: Russian mobilization official Stanislav Rzhitsky killed in Krasnodar

People are also posting rumors about Gerasimov's potential impeding replacement by someone linked to Wagner.

Per Reuters, NATO warplans for the defense of Europe have been officially updated for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Another potential linkage:

Turkey had been blocking approval of what NATO calls its regional plans over the wording on geographical locations such as Cyprus...

posted by snuffleupagus at 3:00 PM on July 10, 2023

If Greece, Turkey and Cyprus are all in the EU, the scar across the island goes away.
posted by ocschwar at 5:55 PM on July 10, 2023

The Royal United Services Institute has an article explaining why giving cluster munitions to Ukraine is morally justified.
posted by interogative mood at 6:53 PM on July 10, 2023 [1 favorite]

“Barely a democracy” and “weird attitude towards a genocide they were totally a part of” make it a bad fit for the EU, but Hungary and Poland are members so who knows.

Since this is the Ukraine thread, I wish everyone was more sensitive to using genocide as a kind of punchline to make a political point on a pretty much unrelated topic. Years of that is how we got to "de-nazify Ukraine" which was used and 'investigated' by western media as Ukraine was in the middle of getting invaded by actual Nazis. Genocide and European involvement needs and deserves its own thread(s). In my opinion.
posted by UN at 10:49 PM on July 10, 2023

Background: Armenian Genocide denial - a non trivial and relevant thing, as least as far as any quid pro quo entry of Turkey into the EU goes.
posted by Artw at 10:58 PM on July 10, 2023 [8 favorites]

The more I stare at this, the more I just think that Erdogan's Russian money tap has been turned off, along with a lot of other players, and he knows that they're all going to just be hung out to dry. Without financial, political, and Internet Troll Factory support, figures like Erdogan will be vulnerable fast. If you've been propped up by Russia and you're not currently working on new alliances, ways to diffuse the anger directed at your past actions, and/or major upgrades to your independent military might, the best you can hope for is to fade into obscurity.

Erdogan is turning to NATO, while Lukashenko is importing an army and Russian nukes.

There will not be a better time for NATO to push hard on Turkish reforms, but who believes that's a thing that could happen?
posted by krisjohn at 11:27 PM on July 10, 2023 [6 favorites]

See also: Erdoğan’s militant partners work with sanctioned Russian Prigozhin to run disinformation campaign amid elections in Turkey, by Abdullah Bozkurt - April 20, 2023
posted by krisjohn at 11:35 PM on July 10, 2023 [4 favorites]

Another thread, another set of self-satisfied tankies living hundreds of miles away from any risk and under no threat whatsoever, passing judgement about Ukraine.

(sorry for the emotional reaction it is mostly related to the cluster bomb debate above)
posted by Pyrogenesis at 1:12 AM on July 11, 2023 [2 favorites]

Which... are there any Ukrainians here on mefi? I don't think so? I may be physically the closest, but I'm in Tartu, Estonia, which is still really quite far away.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 1:21 AM on July 11, 2023

I claim sanctuary is from Poland and I'm from Hungary - we are farther from Russia but closer to Ukraine. I also have distant relatives in Transcarpathia.
posted by kmt at 1:42 AM on July 11, 2023 [2 favorites]

I believe I'm not the only Pole in these threads.

And newest ISW report says that in five weeks of the counteroffensive, Ukraine has won back as much territory as Russia took in the last six months. This on top of the Medusa investigation basically confirming Ukrainian figures for Russian losses - they found about a quarter of that figure as confirmed deaths, which works out with wounded and prisoners to about what the Ukrainians say - really drives home that Ukrainians are doing their best. Here's to the NATO summit giving them a lot more ammunition and weaponry.

(The NAFO summit concluded with great success.)
posted by I claim sanctuary at 2:06 AM on July 11, 2023 [7 favorites]

Based.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 2:44 AM on July 11, 2023

I claim sanctuary: Ukraine has won back as much territory as Russia took in the last six months.

Including parts of Russia/Wagner's prized achievement: Bakhmut.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:20 AM on July 11, 2023

I have friends and relatives in both Ukraine and Poland, including in Kherson city. Been to Ukraine a few times.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:04 AM on July 11, 2023 [3 favorites]

Currently in Tajikistan, geographically remote but politically very close to the conflict. I can get my Solovyov dose direct from the local broadcast TV.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:06 AM on July 11, 2023 [3 favorites]

So there are people here who are actually involved... *waves a Meatbomb*

It's just. As far as I know, the Estonian defence strategy against Russia has been, let's try to stand the ground around Tallinn for 48hrs until NATO arrives. And I'm in a city that in the case of invasion is basically: good luck try not to get killed! Which is why these things are a bit more personal for me...

Then again, nobody is afraid of Russia anymore, I'm fine! Russia has managed to make any potential invasions a matter of a joke...
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:05 AM on July 11, 2023 [2 favorites]

I have a messy situation relating to years living in a camp as a political refugee child from 1980's Poland. A history of family members persecuted, killed and force-migrated by Nazis and Soviets makes me severely biased here, in case it wasn’t obvious. Family split by post-war borders (Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, Kaliningrad). Have close Ukrainian and Russian connections. Now I’m in Germany or Poland.
posted by UN at 5:06 AM on July 11, 2023 [9 favorites]

Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, had responded that the issues of Sweden’s Nato membership and Turkey’s EU hopes were “not related”, comments echoed by the European Commission.

I'm inclined to agree with Olaf; I think the more relevant horse-trading for Turkey to back down on Sweden was probably the F-16 fighter jet deal (WaPo gift link):

Turkey’s main focus, analysts said, has been the completion of a $20 billion deal for American F-16 fighter jets, an agreement that is backed by the Biden administration but has faced opposition on Capitol Hill.

The planes were not mentioned by Stoltenberg nor by the Turkish and Swedish leaders in their joint declaration, and it was not immediately clear whether there had been a side deal with the United States. Some senators, including Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have vowed to block the sale of the jets until Sweden is admitted to NATO.

Democrat and Republican U.S. senators announcing recently that they would not agree to sell Erdogan any F-16s until Sweden was a NATO member is exactly the kind of thing a dictator like Erdogan would find compelling. Much more so than vague promises that Sweden would "support actively efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process."
posted by mediareport at 5:41 AM on July 11, 2023 [7 favorites]

UN, I wasn't aware that east-block refugees were sent to camps before the war in Yugoslavia. I'm sorry to know you had to go through that.
On if my students, from Afghanistan, made me a drawing of the room she shared with her entire family in a camp and I was appalled that we (as a nation, not me personally) force people who need help to live like that.
posted by mumimor at 6:38 AM on July 11, 2023 [2 favorites]

I had thought the fighter standoff was over F-35s, not F-16s, after Turkey bought the S-400s.

“Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems renders its continued involvement with the F-35 impossible,” the White House statement read. “The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.”

Which always struck me as kinda flimsy; is USAF and the rest of NATO or the other countries buying F-35s not going to operate them over or near Turkey? And might it not be handy to have some S-400s to test improved countermeasures and EW against?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:26 AM on July 11, 2023

is USAF and the rest of NATO or the other countries buying F-35s not going to operate them over or near Turkey? And might it not be handy to have some S-400s to test improved countermeasures and EW against?

They are and yes. But there’s a not insignificant risk that the S-400 either phones home or hides analytics and other targeting data somewhere that’s accessible during software updates by Russian technicians.

Stealth aircraft like the F-35 generally fly “dirty” with external stores and, outside of combat missions, with extra radar reflectors bolted on so the damned things actually show up on radar. You don’t want an adversarial system, even one operated by an ally, getting a look at the radar signature of a “clean” F-35.

Plus there’s the principle of the whole thing.
posted by nathan_teske at 8:43 AM on July 11, 2023 [4 favorites]

I assumed that the S400 deal fight between Türkiye and the US was staged in order to buy as much new Russian stuff as possible so NATO could get a close look at it. The whole thing never made sense.
posted by interogative mood at 10:43 AM on July 11, 2023

The need for radar reflectors is an interesting detail; makes sense, I had never thought about it. Remarkable how far stealth has advanced since the F-117.

Maybe Turkey won't wind up receiving as much in the way of S-400 maintenance or updates as expected, if they wind up confronting Russia over Black Sea control, and aren't willing to block countries from joining NATO.

Peripherally, Ukraine may be using old S-200s as a deep strike missile, as with the attempt to hit the Kerch bridge again in the last couple days.

France is now saying it will provide some its SCALP missiles for that role. The article says it has 250km/155mi range. That would just barely reach the north end of the Kerch Strait bridge from positions near Orikhiv under Ukrainian control. Taking Polohy would put it more comfortably within reach.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:09 AM on July 11, 2023 [1 favorite]

The French version of the Storm Shadow, apparently — I was thinking it was an extended range version, but apparently just nomenclature. So, more of them.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:19 AM on July 11, 2023

The Kyiv Independent just published a deep dive into the arms production pipeline issue: EU inability to ramp up production behind acute ammunition shortages in Ukraine. The article paints a basic picture similar to the 2nd link in kmt's comment from a few days ago, but adds a lot more details, some familiar from this discussion and others less so:

- Ukraine's stocks had dried up due to a series of explosions in ammunition depots between 2014 to 2018 in Ukraine, as well as the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, countries Ukraine bought Soviet-style ammunition from. The Czech government has openly blamed the explosions on Russia...In Ukraine alone, around 210,000 tons of ammunition were destroyed in the attacks...

- Western arms often arrive in Ukraine without automatic fire control systems, sights, or navigation, which could save up to around 20% of ammunition..."We receive weapons without access to technology..."

- Western ammunition also often comes with temporary shooting tables or none at all, which means soldiers have to do the math themselves. Moreover, the weight indicated on ammunition is often incorrect, which is why soldiers are forced to weigh munitions themselves..."I will be frank, here on the front line, we don't have much time for these kinds of things."

- European munitions makers refuse to scale up production without state guarantees. They say they are afraid to have to shrink back if the war ends soon. Thus, they demand 10-year-long contracts – something officials are reluctant to give...

- corruption and mismanagement in Ukrainian arms deals in the years before the 2022 invasion
- NATO believing the war wouldn't last long, and its surprise at the need for high volumes of ammunition even in the age of "modern" warfare
- the "zoo" of different types of arms coming from different countries, which soldiers in the field have to sort through and change settings for when each new batch of ammunition comes in: "They all differ in their tactical and technical characteristics."
- protectionism, particularly from France, which delayed a plan for EU countries to jointly purchase arms

And more. It's a useful overview.
posted by mediareport at 12:13 PM on July 11, 2023 [7 favorites]

the "zoo" of different types of arms coming from different countries
posted by Stoneshop at 12:43 PM on July 11, 2023 [6 favorites]

Zelensky slams NATO over no clear path to membership, despite Biden unity pitch
posted by chaz at 12:58 PM on July 11, 2023

Russian submarine captain suspected of launching cruise missiles at Ukrainian city and killing 23 civilians, assassinated while out for a jog

Guy was publicly posting runs on Strava, a fitness social media site where the locations and times of activities are public.
posted by meowzilla at 1:49 PM on July 11, 2023 [10 favorites]

I’d prefer they get billionaired but that works.
posted by Artw at 1:50 PM on July 11, 2023

Quick circle back on cluster munitions:

The air-dropped CBU-87 ('combined effect munition') has a 5% - 10% failure rate (depending on whether you trust the DoD or NGO cleanup org numbers)

We don't have to choose on trust alone; a possible explanation for the different failure estimates from the two groups was offered last week by the NYT [archive link]: the hard surface used at the DoD testing site is better at creating impacts than the real world of sand, mud and vegetation where NGO cleanup orgs find unexploded ordinance:

Army and Marine Corps artillery shells of this type are tested in Yuma, Ariz., in a relatively flat area of hard-packed soil that is free of vegetation, the ideal setting for the grenades to explode on impact. But in a conflict, these shells are fired in a wide variety of places that force dud rates up to 10 percent, and in some cases even higher, especially when they land in water, sand, mud or soft ground like plowed fields.

The fuzes on the grenades released by the M864 are designed to explode when they hit hard targets like armored vehicles and bunkers...“Those fuzes rely on impact and if you land in something soft, you may not get the shock you need,” Mr. Vosburgh said. The lightweight grenades often become snagged in tree branches or bushes and fail to explode as well.

A senior defense official on Friday evening confirmed that M864 shells would be sent to Ukraine and acknowledged that environmental factors can affect their performance, but said the Defense Department did not believe that terrain issues would result in a substantially higher dud rate.

Ok, maybe it is still a matter of trust. Especially given this:

But the Pentagon’s own statements indicate that the cluster munitions in question contain older grenades known to have a failure rate of 14 percent or more.

Also, interrogative mood wrote:

At least the US cluster bombs have been upgraded in the last decade to become inert after a few years of being buried in the mud.

I'm curious about the source for that, haven't seen it anywhere else and it appears to directly conflict with the 2nd NYT quote above.
posted by mediareport at 2:28 PM on July 11, 2023 [2 favorites]

mediareport, that Kyiv Independent article is fantastic! Thanks for sharing!
posted by kmt at 9:45 PM on July 11, 2023 [1 favorite]

Russian commander possibly stalked via Strava and shot dead on run:

A Russian naval commander was shot dead on Monday morning in the Russian city of Krasnodar while out jogging and being possibly tracked on the popular social media app Strava...

Russian investigators believe Rzhitskiy’s running route was tracked on Strava and his death was linked to the upcoming first anniversary of the Kalibr attack on July 15. A screenshot from his profile on Strava on July 4 mapped out a 14-minute activity in Krasnodar, and the Ukrainian Chief of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, gave him kudos for it.

posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:07 AM on July 12, 2023 [2 favorites]

Putin’s «Deathonomics»
Vladislav Inozemtsev demonstrates how Putin’s regime is turning death into a rational choice

The Kremlin launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, promising that the «special military operation» would be conducted by a contract-based army. The conscripts who «happened» to be sent to the frontline were for the most part sent back home. However, due to huge personnel attrition, the Russian authorities soon allowed the recruitment of prisoners by private military companies, and then announced the mobilisation, which many regarded almost akin to the 1941 draft. Experts predicted, in various ways, that the «partial» mobilisation would be followed by a universal one, yet this has not happened so far. On the contrary, the military leaders began to say that staff shortages in the army had been overcome. How could this be possible, especially in view of the losses that the Russian servicemen continue to suffer? The answer might lie in the strange nexus between the worshipping of death and the worshipping of money.

posted by UN at 4:11 AM on July 12, 2023 [6 favorites]

War on the Rocks had a discussion with Michael Kofman about cluster bombs, and his take was that releasing them to Ukraine will substantially push out the timeline for "running out of artillery ammunition" to the point that they won't have to worry about it for this offensive. Which, in his estimation, is a big deal, bigger than the Storm Shadow or any of the other armaments being sent recently.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:56 AM on July 12, 2023 [4 favorites]

Just to be clear, the CBU-87 has one of the poorer failure rates of US systems, and the dispenser may have been upgraded since; I think it's been renumbered. It's an air-dropped bomb, and not the one the Ukrainians have asked for or received as far as I know. It's just an example of how bad the problem can get in terms of how many duds you scatter for each one dropped.

What they have received, that we know about, are artillery shells with cluster submunitions. Thus the "cluster munitions" phrasing in a lot of the stories instead of "cluster bombs." The ones sent seems to have a failure rate of around 3%. Nowhere near as bad as the CBU-87s but bad enough to require a Presidential waiver of the Obama-era ban.

They also asked for Rockeye CBUs, or maybe just the submunitions from them. Rockeye is not the same system as CBU-87. I haven't seen any stories on whether they've received those or not. The failure rate of any submunitions used singly from a drone is going to be lower (given that a significant portion of the failures are due to them being jostled or otherwise damaged between loading and release). They're dropped directly over the intended target, so less are going to randomly hit soft material. Also, it should be fairly straightforward to log the location of failed single drops from a drone that's already being flown by GPS positioning. Certainly much more reliably than with the typical use. You could even try to track and recover them by serial number, though that might be a bit much to keep up with.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:30 AM on July 12, 2023 [1 favorite]

According to the list of weapons the US is providing in the latest assistance package the US is providing M864 and M483A1 DPICM 155mm artillery shells. In the Pentagon Briefing on July 6th General Ryder said "I will say that we have multiple variants of DPICMs in our stocks, and the ones that we are considering providing would not include older variants with dud rates that are higher than 2.35 percent. We are aware of reports out there from several decades ago that indicate that certain 155-mm DPICMs have higher dud rates, so we would be carefully selecting rounds with lower dud rates for which we have recent -- recent testing data."

This was also confirmed on July 7th in a press briefing with Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl "The DPICM ammunition we are delivering to Ukraine will consist only of those with a dud rate less than 2.35 percent. "

They also addressed the issue of use and after war assistance to remove the unexploded ordinance.

"Third, we're working with Ukraine to minimize the risks associated with the decision. The Ukrainian government has offered us assurances in writing on the responsible use of DPICMs, including that they will not use the rounds in civilian-populated urban environments and that they will record where they use these rounds, which will simplify later demining efforts. Ukraine also has committed to post-conflict demining efforts to mitigate any potential harm to civilians. The United States has already invested more than $95 million in Ukraine's demining activities, and we will provide more support to help Ukraine mitigate the impacts of cluster munition use by both sides in this conflict."

Self destruct fuses were added to the M42/M46 submunitions inside these shells starting in 2003 and other upgrades have been completed since then.

2.35% is still terrible since that means every time you fire one of these shells you are putting between 1-2 unexploded grenades out there and we are talking about a scale of war where thousands of these shells get fired. On the other hand Russia has repeatedly used cluster bombs in this war on civilian areas and those have a failure rate of 30-50%.
posted by interogative mood at 11:51 AM on July 12, 2023

I know that the US had to get it in writing to soothe the various critics, but it's so annoying. Of course Ukraine isn't going to use them against their own civilians! Of course they are going to do demining after the war, it's their land!
posted by tavella at 12:03 PM on July 12, 2023 [1 favorite]

On the other hand, I'm in favor of the US commitment to assist that being announced as loudly and often as possible. Harder to forget later.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:59 PM on July 12, 2023

It’s going to be quite a massive effort even prior to this.
posted by Artw at 1:00 PM on July 12, 2023

Russian current account surplus for January to June of 2023 was 7% of that from the same period of 2022.

I'm no economist and I'm always confused by these kinds of things that in isolation could be good or could be bad, and really depend on other things. But I am guessing that for a commodity export-based economy like Russia, this is... not good? Their money is largely dependent on selling oil and such, but they're not selling nearly as much (in terms of rubles, not necessarily actual physical volume) as they had been?
posted by Flunkie at 10:55 PM on July 12, 2023 [1 favorite]

For the record, I have never said here I disagree with sending cluster munitions to Ukraine in this situation. Also, thanks to the folks who added links and info above.

"The DPICM ammunition we are delivering to Ukraine will consist only of those with a dud rate less than 2.35 percent."

You left off the next part of that spokesperson's sentence, which was "...demonstrated through five comprehensive tests conducted by the Department of Defense between 1998 and 2020."

Again, the NYT article I linked a few comments above pointed out that Pentagon testing of cluster munitions occurs at a site with ideal hard-surface conditions that often do not apply in the real world, so it continues to be prudent to take DoD failure estimates like "less than 2.35%" with a grain of salt. I think that holds even if you believe that submunitions accurately dropped from a single drone over a tank or other specific hard target will account for the majority of the use of this ammo. The real world failure rate away from DoD's preferred testing site is certain to be higher than the numbers they're tossing out, and we should keep that in mind as we share those numbers.

(May be worth noting that an Al Jazeera reporter then asked, "Is the department willing to make these studies available so experts can verify the accuracy of the data?" and was told no, they're classified.)
posted by mediareport at 6:55 AM on July 13, 2023 [3 favorites]

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he extend a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of grain from Ukraine in return for connecting a subsidiary of Russia's agricultural bank to the SWIFT international payment system, sources told Reuters.

No words.
posted by UN at 8:17 AM on July 13, 2023

For this purpose only. Purportedly.

However, the EU is considering connecting to SWIFT a subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank to allow specifically for grain and fertilizer transactions, three sources familiar with discussions told Reuters on Wednesday. The European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:25 AM on July 13, 2023 [1 favorite]

That's to export Russia's grain/fertilizer... and by 'Russian grain', we're talking about stolen Ukrainian grain, too.

So Russia illegally blocks Ukrainian ports so Ukraine cannot export it. Then Russia steals grain from Ukraine, sells it, further funding the dictatorship and the war against Ukraine.

The UN tells Putin: yes, this is the way.

It's very unlikely Putin's people will misuse the bank transactions to accept payments for things that are not grain or fertilizer, surely.
posted by UN at 8:59 AM on July 13, 2023 [4 favorites]

Yes, I understand. The fertilizer problem is the more difficult one, globally.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:07 AM on July 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

You're surely right. Frustrating, all of it.
posted by UN at 10:03 AM on July 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

An army marches on its stomach. Cooks like these make them hop, skip and jump (when appropriate).
posted by Stoneshop at 10:03 AM on July 13, 2023 [2 favorites]

That is so important, you have no idea.
posted by Harald74 at 10:06 AM on July 13, 2023

I saw another video of a cook from earlier in the war, an older man, who was with the outmost care providing for his guys. He reminded me so much of my late father-in-law that I'm tearing up a bit just by writing this. I think I'll have to go find that video again.
posted by Harald74 at 10:10 AM on July 13, 2023 [1 favorite]

Dara Massicot with a summary of the situation:

Dysfunction is reaching peak levels in the Russian military command as another general is sacked for speaking truth to power and others are detained, or under suspicion. Where incompetence meets betrayal: a thread of the Russian high command and implications for the front /1

I certainly does not look great for the Russian command and control apparatus, with infighting in addition to general level officers falling to Ukrainian fire. I had a look at the list of US generals that died during WWII, and the list is actually not that much longer. Many of those died in aircraft crashes, however. The typical Russian general seems to die to GMLRS or Storm Shadow fire.
posted by Harald74 at 10:15 AM on July 13, 2023 [3 favorites]

The NY Times article seems to be ignoring changes to testing requirements and technical specifications since 1998. Tests in 2000 under those hard impact scenarios reported a failure rate of 14.5%. The 2008 the Gates memo established the 1% target threshold by 2018 and began the process of expanding testing scenarios. By 2017 the testing had lowered the failure rate in various scenarios to under 2.35% but it was clear they would not reach their target. This resulted in the following 2017 policy memo and attached technical specifications. This memo refers specifically to testing in all intended operating environments.
posted by interogative mood at 10:16 AM on July 13, 2023

I feel a sense of dread after the NATO meeting ... It's not exactly unexpected that Ukraine didn't get the invite, but disappointing nonetheless. I think it was the passive aggressive statement by the UK defense minister, that Ukraine must show gratitude to keep support that bothers me the most. You try being polite when the god-damned Russian army is firing missiles at you while the enemy's propagandists are threatening to blow up your largest nuclear plant to 'force you to negotiate '. There's a little bit of urgency here, you'd think.

The message stings. Ukraine is stuck fighting the fight that NATO was built for. All Ukraine has to do: defeat the entire Russian army, navy and air force. Then, maybe, maybe they'll get an invite (what again is the point of NATO once Ukraine defeats what's left of the Soviet Union?).

Maybe Macron was right: maybe NATO is brain dead. Unfortunately, he is a member.

In the meantime, when there's a bit of free time, Ukraine: give thanks to the allies.
posted by UN at 12:21 AM on July 14, 2023 [7 favorites]

AP: Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more.
posted by Kabanos at 12:30 AM on July 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

The UK defence minister is a known giant prick. Sunak, the UK PM (and also a giant prick, but less so on Ukraine) rapidly walked that back, but is too weak to actually deal with the nutjob wing of his party.

As has been common with the UK government for oh, the last 10 years or so, ignore their words and just look at what they do, as they bear little relation to each other. I have so, so much to loathe my government for, but at least with Ukraine they have generally been been in the 'helpful' camp in terms of fast and substantial military equipment donation and using their influence in NATO to push others to also do so, if Zelensky's repeated thanks to the UK are accurate, though obvously he's justifiably always wanted more.

The message stings. Ukraine is stuck fighting the fight that NATO was built for.
Bringing NATO troops directly into the war also involves the risk of substantial escalation; both expanding the war to other countries and their civilians, and the use of weapons of mass destruction, things that have so far been avoided by steadily expanding types of supplies over time. How big those risks are is obviously debatable, but it's definitely not zero. As much as it sucks for Ukraine, NATO leaders also have a duty to consider them given Ukraine is not a member; yet.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 12:40 AM on July 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

This is just a wild interview:
Putin told "Kommersant" the details of the meeting with the fighters of PMC "Wagner
[In russian, gotta translate]
posted by Kabanos at 2:11 AM on July 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

Bringing NATO troops directly into the war also involves the risk of substantial escalation;

It's been mentioned here I think that a NATO invite is not yet membership. Everyone (including Ukraine) is on the same page, actual membership would happen after the war is over.
posted by UN at 2:40 AM on July 14, 2023

I agree, but I was responding to the idea that the war in Ukraine is (or should be) NATO's responsibility to fight.

As to the other point, the reason for Ukraine to join NATO afterwards is to secure the peace, and prevent Russia trying again at a future point. Because the security guarantees Ukraine were given by the US and Russia both were worthless in the end.

The tricky bit there is partly what the peace looks like; the Crimea and Russia's black sea naval base in particular make things complicated, and of course Russia's visceral reaction to another NATO country on their border. Plus getting there at all, when neither Russia or Ukraine are close to that point yet.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:13 AM on July 14, 2023

I agree, but I was responding to the idea that the war in Ukraine is (or should be) NATO's responsibility to fight.

I think this is a misunderstanding — I’m not suggesting NATO should fight in Ukraine. I am saying that it is failing its founding mission, which is succinctly stated in the first paragraph on its mission statement:

The North Atlantic Alliance was founded in the aftermath of the Second World War. Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom – all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union. [emphasis mine]

Putin is attempting a "re-birth" of the Soviet Union as an empire in his image, destroying peace in Europe in the process.

There’s a country securing peace in Europe with everything it has: Ukraine. So I guess Ukraine is the new NATO. Peace in Europe is dependent on one country and one country only. Let’s hope it doesn’t fail.

NATO could be more grateful. It could give Ukrainians a boost in morale with an invitation to join at the right time. But we’re leaving the door shut "for now". It’s a comfortable position, I guess.
posted by UN at 4:56 AM on July 14, 2023 [4 favorites]

I would have preferred a more formal statement, but the door is most certainly not closed.

Before he left the U.S. for the NATO trip, Biden told CNN in an interview that he thought the time was not yet right for Ukraine to join the NATO alliance. If Ukraine were to become a member now, Biden said then, "we’re in a war with Russia." Biden was asked by a reporter on Wednesday how soon after the war he would like Ukraine to join NATO and responded "an hour and 20 minutes."

The pressure needs to be kept up such that Ukraine actually does get to fight 'as if' it were a member; that's what matters.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:59 AM on July 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

It's worth it to take a breath and look at the last year. Putin went into Ukraine confident that he could take over the country and make it into a vassal similar to Belarus. And to continue to split up the Western powers through media manipulation on the same route he had been working on for a decade or more, with le Pen in France, Brexit, the corrupt Germans (not all Germans are corrupt, but some were at the time), and of course, the whole Trump thing.

And now what he has achieved with the invasion of Ukraine has been the opposite: an extension of NATO all the way up to the polar circle, including new commitment to the alliance from the rather flaky Turkish government. Internal weakness in Russia at an unprecedented level, and they are running out of arms. My personal opinion about the Russian army is that they are far worse off than Western "experts" imagine. This is both a systemic issue in the West and in Russia: Russians at all levels naturally need to project strength and resilience, but in the West, we have a similar bias, because people at all levels want to present Russia as a dire threat, so we can train more soldiers and buy more weapons. I'm not saying Russia is not a threat, and I do support NATO, but I think we have more fear of their army than is rationally meaningful.

And BTW Brexit has strengthened, not weakened the EU. And remember the troll farms were Wagner operations. Not that the Russian government can't take over, but plausible deniability is gone with that. And we still don't know if the coup is still ongoing. On the other hand, the very real threat of a totalitarian coup in the USA is being slowly, but safely uncovered, and right now, I believe the perpetrators will be taken to justice.

Obviously, some things could be better. Yes, it will be a great day when Ukraine enters Nato, and also the EU. It would be even better if Russia could finally develop into a peaceful democracy. But one step at the time.
posted by mumimor at 8:57 AM on July 14, 2023 [7 favorites]

I think our (NATO/West) response has been inadequate and continues to be too tepid. The result has been the needless deaths of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers. We’ve dragged our feet on providing them the weapons and support they need to win the war.
posted by interogative mood at 9:09 AM on July 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

I've heard the theory that the US wants to weaken Russia more than it wants to help Ukraine. This seems plausible, but I don't know what would count as evidence.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:26 AM on July 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

What we have been learning these last weeks is that we simply don't have the stuff. This war is an old school trench war, with very little movement on either side, and some terror bombing from the Russians. We are not equipped for that, because it hasn't been relevant for 100 years.
Also, many European countries were reluctant to hand over their sparse stock because they were worried that they could be next. A year ago, most people feared the "formidable" Russian military force, see above. Now that paper tiger has been taken down, it is OK to admit that we don't have enough relevant weapons, and also to hand over the last scraps to Ukraine while the military-industrial complex gears up to provide more of everything.
I can understand how that looks from a Ukrainian POV, but I hope and also trust things will change now. Though: changing the entire system does take time.

Regarding nuclear bombs: I'm pretty sure that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, the response from NATO will be swift and decisive, wether Ukraine is part of NATO or not. But no-one wants that to happen on either side, and I think everyone knows this is real.
posted by mumimor at 9:28 AM on July 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

It's very easy to see in retrospect that the response was inadequate knowing what we all know now about how much of a paper tiger Russia turned out to be in many ways, but this was a completely unprecedented way of having to deal with a nuclear superpower for the west. And it really is more responsible on a global level, concerned about nuclear retaliation from a completely erratic leader, to incrementally expand the capabilities in what is essentially a proxy war nobody asked for and see what the response is, and to prioritize sanctions and progressively escalate from there. I've gotten the clear sense of at least the Biden administration wanting to do more the whole time and being hamstrung by various aspects of a complicated situation from doing so as quickly as they wanted. There's no good answer, it's not like NATO is secretly rooting for Ukraine to fall or anything.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:32 AM on July 14, 2023 [4 favorites]

Regarding nuclear bombs: I'm pretty sure that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, the response from NATO will be swift and decisive, wether Ukraine is part of NATO or not.

Part of what I think causes the abundance of caution and slower than ideal response is that beyond MAD there probably is a level of tactical nuclear use that you can't just destroy everything in a full scale retaliation over and nobody wants to find out what happens if Putin decides to go there and the response is - because the response would have to be, short of annihilation - basically just the west being more angry and sending more weapons but now that Pandora's box has been opened and there's no going back. I think that's honestly a more realistic threat than full on MAD.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:37 AM on July 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

> Regarding nuclear bombs: I'm pretty sure that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, the response from NATO will be swift and decisive, wether Ukraine is part of NATO or not.

tldr: mutually assured destruction

Maybe take that to it's own thread?
posted by sebastienbailard at 9:47 AM on July 14, 2023 [9 favorites]

tldr: mutually assured destruction

I don't think so. I can't cite any sources, but arms tech is on a whole other level in the West than in the rest of the world, and specially in the US. We have discussed this in an earlier thread: someone explained that the reason hi-tech weapons are not in use in Ukraine is that they are very expensive to develop, and the minute they are employed, they can be copied, for instance by Chinese developers. So there is a balance of interests, where NATO/the US is unwilling to hand over advanced technology to Ukraine, because then they will have to develop new technology at speed. Again, that might change in the light of the utter failure of Russia to conduct this war.
posted by mumimor at 10:43 AM on July 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

My take on the threat from the Russians (I live in Norway, so a neighbour) is that in the near future I consider the Russians to be far less dangerous than I estimated, but I also consider the risk of them starting a shooting war for some fool reason to be higher than I previously thought.

So the sum of those two factors might even be constant, I guess? But the new thing, which shouldn't really been new to me if I had paid more attention, is the total lack of concern for human life and dignity the Russians display everywhere their armed forces go. I mean, it's still 1945 and they're rolling into Germany in their minds, apparently.

So my stand is that we better be able to stop them at the border, not do a fighting retreat over Norwegian territory. Anything else is to condemn our civilians to torture, rape and murder.

In the short run I'm happy that my country is #4 (after the Baltics) in support as % of GDP. We can afford it, and most likely re-arm in time.
posted by Harald74 at 12:07 PM on July 14, 2023 [9 favorites]

Ukraine is stuck fighting the fight that NATO was built for.

The fight that NATO was built for was mutual self-defense against attacks upon its members.

I get that people really want Ukraine in NATO or Ukraine having a specific, explicit path towards NATO or whatever, but at this point such a thing would be performative at best.

I feel like it's pretty clear, both from the behavior of NATO in this non-NATO conflict and from statements from its various members, that once the war is done (with, frankly, a huge amount of help from NATO) that there's basically an open door for Ukraine to walk through if it so chooses.

I agree that the "show gratitude" thing from the UK guy is dickish.
posted by Flunkie at 12:16 PM on July 14, 2023 [3 favorites]

Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea is NATO’s lake now
posted by clavdivs at 1:23 PM on July 14, 2023 [2 favorites]

Harald74: but I also consider the risk of them starting a shooting war for some fool reason to be higher than I previously thought.

Um, against who? Any NATO member? That would, I expect as a first step, cause an awfully big part of the Russian Air Force and air defenses to soon stop being much of a threat after which dealing with ground forces becomes a fair bit easier if those still have the urge to go on. Ukraine will take advantage of such a change too, no doubt.

Against one or more of the 'stans? I don't know how much of a military coalition they have or will form against such an action and how big a force that would/could create, but while they appear a bit of a mixed bag regarding their current attitude towards Russia, they may well turn against them as one, "Hey, not again", given Russia's previous actions around the Caucasus, Afghanistan and now Ukraine.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:02 PM on July 14, 2023

>>> Regarding nuclear bombs: I'm pretty sure that if Russia uses nuclear weapons, the response from NATO will be swift and decisive, wether Ukraine is part of NATO or not.

>> tldr: mutually assured destruction

> I don't think so. I can't cite any sources, but arms tech is on a whole other level in the West than in the rest of the world, and specially in the US. We have discussed this in an earlier thread: someone explained that the reason hi-tech weapons are not in use in Ukraine is that they are very expensive to develop, and the minute they are employed, they can be copied, for instance by Chinese developers. So there is a balance of interests, where NATO/the US is unwilling to hand over advanced technology to Ukraine, because then they will have to develop new technology at speed. Again, that might change in the light of the utter failure of Russia to conduct this war.

Ah, I didn't understand what you meant by NATO's response, and thought you meant NATO nukes or troops, not gifting Ukraine weapons from higher tiers.
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:04 PM on July 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

I feel like it's pretty clear, both from the behavior of NATO in this non-NATO conflict and from statements from its various members, that once the war is done (with, frankly, a huge amount of help from NATO) that there's basically an open door for Ukraine to walk through if it so chooses.

I don't think this is true. NATO has learned some hard lessons about admitting members who are not ideologically aligned which ends up weakening NATO's ability to respond to things like the invasion of Ukraine. Hungary and Turkey are highly problematic members of NATO. Ukraine today is very aligned with NATO ideals but Ukraine pre-Zelensky was not and Ukraine post-Zelensky may not be either. The fact that Ukraine has had recent major political shifts should count against it getting full membership but I also think the political swings in Turkey and Hungary should have some implications as well. Hell I think even the UK is problematic what with training Chinese fighter pilots, putting a KGB scion in the house of lords and selling half of London and the Tory party to Russian oligarchs. But I guess once you're in, you're in.

That said there is no absolute need for Ukraine to be in NATO for countries to step up. It's not a magic spell. Countries can do as they please and if they want to come to Ukraine's aid with boots on the ground and planes in the air they can. They just choose not to.
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on July 14, 2023 [4 favorites]

I would have preferred a more formal statement, but the door is most certainly not closed.

What Ukraine wanted was not to join NATO now (despite all the disingenuous people pretending it was so as to say of course they can't enter, NATO would be at war), but a clear statement that they would be able to as soon as the war ended, an invitation with conditions. What they got was a mumblemouth mush that says only that NATO reiterates the 2008 statement that at some point in the vague future Ukraine will be in NATO. And the removal of the MAP requirement, which is what convinced Ukraine it was worth Zelenskyy's while to come, was replaced with statements about needing democratization (which was particularly rich coming from the US's side; one of those two countries had an attempted coup to prevent transfer of power last election, and it wasn't Ukraine) and "NATO military standards", which both of which are sufficiently vague and endless that they will provide plenty of excuses eternally for why Ukraine cannot be invited.

And Ukraine knows *exactly* how empty the 2008 statement was. Biden and Austen can make happy talk about oh yeah Ukraine will be in NATO, but it's a case of watch what the hands do, not what the mouth says. And when it came to actually putting that into writing, the US demanded that it not be. So Ukraine knows that even if they push Russia back to their borders, they will have to maintain their security afterwards entirely by themselves, especially since the countries they might otherwise expect to be able to make useful bilateral mutual protection treaties can't do so without losing their own Article 5 protection.

(And for the tankies that occasionally pop up here and wail about peace, this is not a reason for Ukraine to give up. Russia has demonstrated that they will never care about keeping to any peace agreement; it will merely be prelude to another invasion, while they continue to torture, rape, murder, and exile Ukrainians in the occupied areas. So Ukraine's best choice is to extract as much weaponry from the West as possible, recover as much of their territory and people as possible, and kill as many Russians and destroy as much of their weaponry as they can. And prepare to make it even bloodier and more difficult for the Russians when they come back for round 3 in the future.)
posted by tavella at 3:07 PM on July 14, 2023 [5 favorites]

the countries they might otherwise expect to be able to make useful bilateral mutual protection treaties can't do so without losing their own Article 5 protection

Source, please? NATO countries can and do have bilateral defense treaties with non-NATO nations. Closest I see in the actual charter is in Article 8, which says (in part) they will undertake "not to enter into any international engagement in conflict with this Treaty", but to me at least that seems pretty obviously along the lines of "Won't join a pact with Brazil to fight Denmark", not "Won't join a pact with Brazil".

I'm not saying you're wrong; the claim just surprises me, and if it's true, I'd like to see some evidence of it.
posted by Flunkie at 3:22 PM on July 14, 2023

NATO is exactly were Ukraine will be. The Russians, Chinese and the Americans were trying to carve up part of Ukraine military industrial capacity. I believe someone upthread said what peace may look like, a lot of contractors around the world going to involved, those contracts, that's where the real money is. Ukraine's being in Candidate status in the EU was one very important step and that was less than a year ago I believe. With EU membership and NATO partnership, Ukraine will be in a lot better position to guide its own destiny in future relations with Russia well everybody and will be in a better position economically to deal with reconstruction.
posted by clavdivs at 3:23 PM on July 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

I'm not saying you're wrong; the claim just surprises me, and if it's true, I'd like to see some evidence of it.

Ukraine coming to Poland or the Baltics' aid with troops if invaded would not be a problem, but a treaty that also required vice versa would mean that those countries could not call on Article 5 if Russia expanded the war to invade or bomb them. They aren't going to do it, therefore. I'm sure there will be lesser treaties that involve supplying weapons and the like, but Ukraine knows that it will be only them fighting. But given that Russia has made it clear that they intend to exile, enslave, or exterminate every Ukrainian on territory they occupy, what choice is there?
posted by tavella at 3:34 PM on July 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

While we're on the topic, just a reminder that Ukraine in NATO has been a discussion to watch for a long time. This, from 2008: Bush backs Ukraine and Georgia for Nato membership.

A darkly amusing line in the article: The encounter is likely to be the last between the two leaders before Putin leaves office on May 7.
posted by chaz at 3:45 PM on July 14, 2023 [7 favorites]

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin ‘dead or in prison’ after Putin meeting, former US commander claims

Article about 19 hours old at time of posting.
posted by krisjohn at 3:58 PM on July 14, 2023

Should probably be noted that the "Prigozhin dead or in prison" thing seems a bit misleading; it is not, as the headline says, actually a real "claim" by a former US commander. It's just the guy saying he personally thinks Prigozhin probably is (upon being directly asked).
posted by Flunkie at 4:13 PM on July 14, 2023 [1 favorite]

Putin has 'already lost’ the war in Ukraine, says Biden on visit to Finland.

Why is Joe declaring the future.
is there something "we" don't know.
Also, Joe downplays that threat. And the orchestral news (0ne of C's) on coup day was worried about Mr. Wagner getting codes which is fear mongering with 3 sources. Getting codes, Mr. Wagner would do better marching on Mos....oh.
I'll call that he's dead or sedated judging that Wagner elements from Africa are in Belarus, the new euphemism for disarming Wagner. Talk of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are not central to keeping "us"all at Bay from Russia Russia right now has never been more surrounded and isolated in quite a while, they're on the verge of a collapse because only more failure will Induce harsher measures for the Russian people and more lies and when they turn on the Kremlin, they'll use tanks. Look at the Russian Military, some FSB, etc. being arrested. Arrest and release is a popular tactic for Putin, leaves one guessing. experts are saying Putin don't got another years worth of fight.
Ukraine grinding the hell out of Russia conventionally and the Russian people getting fed up with Putin and kicking him out is the best result for the end of this war.
the use of nuclear weapons is the unthinkable thing, jason. the bad thing is about 50 things Russia could do to various countries infrastructure to their economy etc. which then could lead to escalation which then we could probably have a discussion.
posted by clavdivs at 6:41 PM on July 14, 2023

on coup day was worried about Mr. Wagner getting codes which is fear mongering with 3 sources. Getting codes, Mr. Wagner would do better marching on Mos....oh.

Not sure what that means, but Russian military doctrine includes tactical nukes in the form of artillery shells. They may have codes, but chances are slim, being very old and a front line weapon that was already distributed, not nearly as powerful as something in missile or bomb form, which would kill the gun crew if it was. It's conceivable that Wagner going rogue was an effort to acquire them.
posted by Brian B. at 8:41 PM on July 14, 2023

Mod note: I've just begun to clean up this thread from a massive derail about do/don't post about nukes here, but in the meantime: The TL/DR is that from the beginning of the invasion, some people have wanted to focus *very much* on the possibility of nuclear escalation, and this has a much different effect for people who are more or less armchair analysts wanting to follow an idea or "what-if," etc., and people who are basically on the front lines of such an act. This is especially true when there is no compelling reason to make that possibility a major part of the ongoing updates and news. SO. If it is an actual evidence-based compelling part of the news of what's really happening, it should be okay to bring up in a fact-oriented way. If you just really want to discuss "what if nukes," please do make another post / thread that focuses on that, specifically. If you want to discuss how this should be handled on the site, please make a Metatalk post about that, and let's return this thread to discussion of the news. Thank you.
posted by taz (staff) at 12:48 AM on July 15, 2023 [25 favorites]

Kabanos: Putin told "Kommersant" the details of the meeting with the fighters of PMC "Wagner.

An article in The Guardian about that meeting.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:14 AM on July 15, 2023 [3 favorites]

Today, while driving, I heard this podcast (in Danish, possibly geo-blocked) which is a conversation with a volunteer in the war. I am usually not interested in stuff like this, but I feel I learnt a lot.
- when he arrived, there were tons and tons of western arms, but no one educated to use them, so he went with mostly AK-47s for his team, and a bit of high tech. Later he told that he worked for a few months educating snipers
- the camp they were received in was run very professionally (but maybe differently than many armchair warriors would imagine)
- then the top-secret camp was bombed out by Russian missiles, indicating pretty good Russian intelligence at the time, more than a year ago. Except that their plan was to bomb the breakfast in the mess hall and kill everyone, but they apparently forgot the time difference
- the bombing led to a lot of volunteers going back home. He felt that was fine, don't go to a terrible war if you aren't up to it
- he was about to work with a Belarusian SOF team who had gone rogue and decided to work with Ukraine instead of Russia
- he was in a situation where he knew the Russians had sighted him and his two buddies with a drone, and did nothing, so they could hold up their post all night. Perhaps indicating a lack of morale on the Russian side
- in general, the way he described it, it seemed the Ukrainian defence had a very good management system, always knowing where he was, which skills he could provide and how to support him, even from before he entered. But of course there could be a bit of bragging in there
- it also seemed that the Ukrainian defence was good at communicating the missions and giving clear information on what to do if something went awry.
- he told that the foreign fighters came from all over the world, including Russia, Belarus and Chechnya. They spoke English initially, but apparently these guys are used to learning languages

The podcast also gave a sort of insight into those people who become mercenaries. He was quite blunt about being there more for the fight and the camaraderie than for ideology, though he did believe in the Ukrainian cause. I can see how there could be similar people in Wagner. War is what they are good at, and they have some pride in that. The pay doesn't seem to be as good as in Wagner, so there is some element of idealism, and he said there were absolutely some people who were there for idealistic reasons, he specifically mentions a British doctor.

Just thought you would like to know, and a few of the people who often comment in these threads can understand Danish.
posted by mumimor at 9:52 AM on July 15, 2023 [19 favorites]

Photo of Exiled Wagner Boss Prigozhin in His Undies Surfaces.

CW: mercenary in undies.
posted by clavdivs at 12:37 PM on July 15, 2023 [3 favorites]

Never have I more appreciated a CW.
posted by Flunkie at 12:44 PM on July 15, 2023 [6 favorites]

The podcast also gave a sort of insight into those people who become mercenaries. He was quite blunt about being there more for the fight and the camaraderie than for ideology, though he did believe in the Ukrainian cause. I can see how there could be similar people in Wagner. War is what they are good at, and they have some pride in that. The pay doesn't seem to be as good as in Wagner, so there is some element of idealism, and he said there were absolutely some people who were there for idealistic reasons, he specifically mentions a British doctor.

I watched a pretty chilling youtube documentary about US soldiers in a training camp to earn their jungle badges and the main guy just straight up said he liked war and wanted to kill people. He also said he was just a few years short of retirement. I thought about adding a google news alert for his name to see if he would go on to be a murderer once he mustered out.
posted by srboisvert at 1:36 PM on July 15, 2023 [1 favorite]

New 1420 video asks about taking Ukrainian children to Russia. Most of it doesn't seem particularly interesting to me -- most of them just seem reluctantly accepting of it as helping the kids get out of danger -- but one guy ("Sergey, 29, Chinese translator") had a... well... I think I'll just let Sergey speak for himself here:

I heard about that, but I also heard about how in Europe they are taking children from Ukrainians. There are a lot of publications, in Western media, not even Russian, about how children have their organs removed and sold in Europe and it's widespread. In Russia, I think they aren't being taken, but evacuated. Here their organs definitely aren't being taken.

posted by Flunkie at 7:15 PM on July 15, 2023 [1 favorite]

Gotta admit I'm confused by the question.

What's the other option? Do you suspect that I'm providing that quote as an amazing, unquestionable revelation that Europeans are abducting Ukrainian kids to harvest their organs?
posted by Flunkie at 7:34 PM on July 15, 2023 [10 favorites]

WaPo yesterday: The biggest obstacle to Ukraine’s counteroffensive? Minefields [gift link]
NYT today: Small, Hidden and Deadly: Mines Stymie Ukraine’s Counteroffensive [archive]

Both have lots of detail about the difficulty Ukraine is encountering as it tries to push the offensive forward over heavily mined areas, and how effectively it's being slowed:

WaPo: ...there are so few of the mine-clearing systems, they have become an easier target for Russian forces, which have prioritized striking them..."their use is already ineffective, because the enemy expects the appearance of such equipment, which is massive, which is noisy, which is easy to see and, accordingly, to strike.

"When the enemy sees even a Leopard tank in front of him and special engineering equipment, he will destroy the special equipment first."

...Ukrainians are trying for now to save the few they do have by doing the job manually...they crawl, relying on their vision to spot mines...The Russians are also able to drop more mines from drones, reseeding areas that the Ukrainians had cleared.

NYT's piece describes the various mines in horrifying detail:

The fields Ukrainian forces must cross are littered with dozens of types of mines — made of plastic and metal, shaped like tins of chewing tobacco or soda cans...The minefields are routinely set with booby traps and so-called anti-handling devices that cause mines to detonate if they are lifted, to thwart demining teams. A common tactic is what Major Prysyazhnyuk called a “trick for idiots” — burying anti-personnel mines in front of a trip wire, to target a soldier who might try to disable the trip wire.

More sophisticated explosives include the so-called jumping mines, which, when stepped on, pop up and spray shrapnel, hitting other soldiers nearby. Russia also uses mines triggered by slender, yellow-colored trip wires that stretch out a dozen or so yards, any of which when disturbed can set off an explosion and a spray of shrapnel.

Danger exists even after the paths are cleared. Russian forces often fire rockets that scatter small, hard-to-spot green plastic “leaf” mines, also called butterfly mines, over the cleared area...Because some mines are plastic, to avoid detection by demining teams, the shrapnel they spray into soldiers can be invisible to doctors in first-aid stations near the front, where medical teams use metal detectors to find and remove fragments.
posted by mediareport at 7:26 AM on July 16, 2023 [6 favorites]

Jeezus that’s horrifying.
posted by notyou at 9:15 AM on July 16, 2023 [2 favorites]

Excuse me if this has been mentioned, but even after an area has been cleared, floods can move mines into it.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 9:30 AM on July 16, 2023 [2 favorites]

One of my historical warfare YouTube channels had this 21 minute video on Russian defences. They look pretty effective, but they're basically just the normal land defences against vehicles and infantry that haven't changed that much since WW2.

I can't find the link now but military historian Bret Devereaux had a thing saying that the war in Ukraine isn't radically different to other land wars from WW2 onwards. It's very hard to make progress against prepared defences, but if you do break through you can advance quickly. So you can have long periods of apparent stasis followed by sudden-seeming advances.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:17 AM on July 16, 2023 [1 favorite]

Eerik N. Kross has some thoughts on the mutiny and what it says about Putin's Russia, likening it to a massive gulag:

The military leadership and government officials in Russia today are pridurki. Since its not enough to control the political prisoners and the real, honourable criminals just with guards who are cowards and pridurki who are turds, the leadership also needs a cooperation system with some of the real criminals. The criminals who sell out to the power are called suki. Very different of "thieves in law." Suki are the moral mud league even for the Russian prison. They are despised by other prisoners, by criminals and politicals alike, they are also feared. Wagner is an organization of suki in the current Russian context. They play criminals but their value to the leadership is that they can kill other prisoners if needed, they are allowed to steel and rob anyone.
posted by Harald74 at 12:14 PM on July 16, 2023 [2 favorites]

ISW.
"Russian sources reported on July 15 that the Russian military command dismissed 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov.[1] Russian sources stated that the reason for Seliverstov’s dismissal is currently unknown but speculated that it could be associated with Seliverstov’s reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers...."


Seliverstov’s dismissal may be a part of an ongoing purge of insubordinate commanders by the Russian military command and may suggest that the corrosion of the Russian chain of command in Ukraine is accelerating"

"The Russian military leadership is likely attempting to dissuade commanders from emulating recent cases of insubordination by punishing those involved in leaking Popov’s message of complaints"

Now that's interesting in as much to further degrading morale.
posted by clavdivs at 1:12 PM on July 16, 2023 [1 favorite]

Suki are the moral mud league even for the Russian prison. They are despised by other prisoners, by criminals and politicals alike, they are also feared. Wagner is an organization of suki in the current Russian context.

Hm. I'm not sure Russians hate Prigozhin, though? How much does Wagner even operate inside Russia, as opposed to abroad? I dunno what cause most Russians would have to have particular dislike for Wagner.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:38 PM on July 16, 2023 [1 favorite]

Looks like the Kerch Strait Bridge has been hit again. Oops, I mean a "night incident" and clsoed to all traffic.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:53 PM on July 16, 2023 [2 favorites]

Putin will forever be remembered as the man who sold Russia a bridge.

Getting people to build a bridge without permission on someone else's property has to be one of the dumbest scams, ever. And people fell for it.
posted by UN at 11:32 PM on July 16, 2023 [3 favorites]

“…I gotta bridge to sell ya.”

Is a pretty elegant way to characterize Putin’s time as head of Russia - I wonder if that’s how it'll end up, alongside “Après moi, Le déluge”, “Let them eat cake” and “I am not a crook”
posted by From Bklyn at 12:06 AM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]

“…I gotta bridge to sell ya.”
posted by From Bklyn

Uh-huh.
posted by UN at 12:11 AM on July 17, 2023 [13 favorites]

"Emergency responders and law enforcement have been dispatched to the scene, said Aksenov, the head of Crimea. The Transport Ministry said an inspection of the bridge was underway.

Aksenov urged residents and those traveling to and from Crimea to choose an alternative land route."

Imagine you and your family are all packed up and ready to go on holiday in a war zone, but the bridge linking you and your destination is blown up. Your government, not wanting to ruin your vacation plans, suggests an alternative option: drive through an even more active and dangerous war zone.

Russia is a sick society with no help in sight.
posted by UN at 3:08 AM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]

Photos of the damage to the Kerch bridge. So that you can identify the direction in which the photos were taken: the rail bridge is to the west of the road bridge.

One span of the southbound roadway has been displaced and partially dropped. In photo 4 there's a black car that was driving north, which appears to have hit the edge of a span the moment it was lifted by an explosion underneath. If correct that means both directions are now out of order and only the rail bridge is still operational.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:08 AM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

Your government, not wanting to ruin your vacation plans, suggests an alternative option: drive through an even more active and dangerous war zone.

And the real kicker is that people eagerly and happily go there, with attack helicopters buzzing the beaches. Fuck those people, and I hope they enjoy their return trip via Melitopol and Mariupol. Quick, before the Ukrainians achieve a breakthrough!

For a class we were talking about a "night to remember". One of my English students here in Dushanbe waxed poetic about looking up at the stars during her vacation in Crimea. I had to bite my lip.
posted by Meatbomb at 5:10 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]

I expect all Russian passport holders in Crimea will soon be taken on a forced bus trop along that route, with a very slow drive through what's left of Mariupol.
posted by ocschwar at 9:03 AM on July 17, 2023

Russia is concentrating "more than 100,000 personnel, more than 900 tanks, more than 555 artillery systems, 370 MLRS" in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction, according to Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Military Command.
posted by UN at 11:16 AM on July 17, 2023

It was expected that Russia wasn’t going to renew the grain deal. Türkiye announced at the NATO summit that they would use their navy to safeguard ships carrying grain from Ukraine. I’m sure that Zelenskyy probably discussed this with Erodigan as a potential response of Russia to summer operations by UAF and the types of operations Ukraine was planning such as hitting the bridge again.
posted by interogative mood at 1:41 PM on July 17, 2023

Most of that grain was never going to end up in Africa. In fact most of it would end up in China, and sizeable chunks in Turkey, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.
And more than half of it was intended to feed cattle and other livestock.

Yes, indirectly the eggs, milk and meat would end up feeding people. But most likely not those who are most in need.

(Source: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements
via https://decorrespondent.nl/14651/in-beeld-waar-komt-het-graan-uit-rusland-en-oekraine-nou-echt-terecht (Dutch))
posted by Too-Ticky at 1:42 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

The market for grain is global and if China, EU, etc can't buy it from Ukraine the price will go up and the EU, China, etc will end up with grain while the poorest countries end up buying fewer bushels as a result of the cost. So while it is technically true that the ships were not going directly to Africa it doesn't matter; because it just means that ships that were headed to Africa, now got to Türkiye, China and the EU. The effect is the same. Also I'm pretty sure that grain bound for Türkiye also ends up getting milled into flour there and then re-exported.
posted by interogative mood at 4:01 PM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]

Putin this is Premier Xi.
grain, you should let it be
sure, you can shot across the bow
but you won't make it with anyone
anyhow.
posted by clavdivs at 4:24 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

bridge attack as an excuse to hold Africa and other parts of the world hostage by pulling out of the Black Sea grain shipment agreement.

Putin wants to attend August's summit.

Putin previousishness
posted by clavdivs at 4:33 PM on July 17, 2023

Putin wants to attend August's summit.

Sounds like the perfect time to disinvite him from the Russian vertical of power, no?
posted by Meatbomb at 5:35 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

I hope Turkey walks the walk here. Fuck off, Russia, you get no say in the matter... unless you want to attack NATO.
posted by Flunkie at 6:45 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]

Food security is a national security issue. Countries unable to feed their population through domestic production risk being forced into conflict. Countries with unresolved wealth inequality risk starving the poor. This should be a wake-up call for lots of countries. Investment in domestic food production is important for so many reasons, not just to survive disruptions due to wars, but also climate change. The leverage Russia had in this instance was unacceptable. Now that the deal has lapsed (or "de facto ended"), maybe other countries will take some sort of meaningful action, either internationally or domestically.
posted by krisjohn at 6:59 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]

The US extended its flag to oil tankers to keep the oil flowing from the Persian Gulf a few decades back. We should do the same for grain shipments operating via Odessa. If Türkiye won’t deploy its Navy, we could probably deploy air cover for the ships to provide security.

Also FYI the country is officially spelled Türkiye now, not Turkey. The North American bird is a Turkey, the country is Türkiye.
posted by interogative mood at 9:54 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]

Being reliant on fossil fuel-based fertilizer, particularly to prop up monocropping, was never a good idea, and it's even less so one now. We're going to need to scale more sustainable processes if we want to move forward without creating dangerously fragile food supply chains that are easily held hostage.
posted by krisjohn at 10:17 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]

Arguably what allowed Russia to stomach the embargoes was a sustained buildup to reduce trade dependence. Putin organized what is now called a “fortress economy” which may lose luxury imports but can sustain a war effort with domestic production. Russia has plenty of fuel and food, what seems like a never ending supply of Soviet era tank divisions, and a nuclear threat that prevents global powers from intervening directly.

It was Kant who suggested that trade would end war, and I don’t think he was wrong in the long run. Egypt is basically governed by the army already, its probably not a good plan to make war less painful in that region. But Kantian cosmopolitanism only works if you produce something your rival wants.
posted by pwnguin at 12:09 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]

FYI the country is officially spelled Türkiye now, not Turkey. The North American bird is a Turkey, the country is Türkiye.

This is a controversial policy from Erdogan, which there was a thread about earlier this year. People continuing to use the English exonym may be aware of that and choosing to do so. Let's not discuss this further in this thread.
posted by automatronic at 1:13 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]

Do not trust your GPS (or GLONASS)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:03 AM on July 18, 2023

Russian media publish instructions for the tourists who leave Crimea through temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories after the explosions on Kerch bridge:

"Instructions for traveling across the liberated territories [occupied territories of Ukraine]:

1. You need the border crossing going through Dzhankoy to Melitopol from Crimea.
2. Refuel your car, withdraw cash. Buy plenty of drinking water.
3. Remember that you are entering the regions where there are hostilities in the north and martial law has been imposed in the regions themselves.
4. Do not stop in unequipped places if possible. Stop at gas stations and in towns.
5. Gas stations are located every 50-100 km. Many of them accept cards. You can have a snack.
6. On the way you will meet military checkpoints. Do everything that the servicemen say. Do not be rude, do not push for your rights. At most you will be asked to show your documents and show your bags.
7. Always keep your documents close to you.
8. A perfectly smooth new road has been built from Crimea to Rostov region.
9. In Melitopol in the city center you can have a delicious lunch and withdraw money.
10. Your way lies through Melitopol, bypassing Berdyansk, then Mariupol and Taganrog. It is 400 km (5-6 hours drive).
11. Download offline maps, in case the connection is lost, select manually in the section "settings - cellular communication".
12. Pass military and vehicles with V and Z symbols.
13. Do not drive at night.
14. Insurance policies are not valid there.
15. The road is safe, but vigilance must be maintained at all times.
16. Do not stop outside checkpoints and rest areas.
17. Medical assistance can be sought from the military and police.
18. Do not go into fields and forests. Do not take pictures of Russian army vehicles and soldiers.
19. Be polite and calm. Everything is built on mutual respect and patience in the special military operation zone.

#19 is my favorite.
posted by UN at 9:21 AM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]

krisjohn: We're going to need to scale more sustainable processes

True, but that's not going to solve the problems for the immediate future.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:16 AM on July 18, 2023

On the way you will meet military checkpoints. Do everything that the servicemen say. Do not be rude, do not push for your rights.

That one's so fascinating to me, such a perfect example of authoritarian doublespeak and the lies you have to accept to pretend you live in a normal society in that situation - pretending you have rights while making it clear you do not in one short sentence. Pretending it's a choice.
posted by jason_steakums at 11:41 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]

That one's so fascinating to me, such a perfect example of authoritarian doublespeak and the lies you have to accept to pretend you live in a normal society in that situation

Wait, that list is not actually real, is it?! I haven't clicked on the link (because Twitter), but it seemed like satire to me, and the "Gerashchenko" in the username made me suspect that it was probably Anton Gerashchenko (Ukrainian pol).
posted by Flunkie at 11:50 AM on July 18, 2023

UN: 8. A perfectly smooth new road has been built from Crimea to Rostov region.

After the Dutch capitulation in WW2, Fritz Todt ordered to extend the then only motorway in the Netherlands, from The Hague to Ede (roughly the middle of NL), towards Arnhem and Emmerich, Germany. This was soon nicknamed "het hazenpad" (as in "het hazenpad kiezen": bailing out, running away).

That road from Crimea to Rostov feels to have quite a similar purpose now.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:59 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]

No insurance is fun. Hope you're not planning on getting in any accidents.
posted by Harald74 at 12:06 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]

Flunkie: I haven't clicked on the link (because Twitter),

nitter.net works again, for now, and while it could be satire he didn't think it up himself, someone called Oleg Tsarev tweeted it.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:07 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]

Wow, Oleg Tsarev is one of the big guys in the puppet republics.

Does anybody know/can anybody figure out if the screenshot of him tweeting that is real (i.e. is a screenshot of a tweet or whatever, as opposed to just a screenshot), and if so, if the account that tweeted it is actually *the* Oleg Tsarev?
posted by Flunkie at 12:14 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]

hippybear: This is about Russian tourists vacationing in Crimea.

It's a holiday in Crimea
It's tough, kid, but that's life
posted by Stoneshop at 12:40 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]

Oleg Tsarev is one of the big guys in the puppet republics.

Eponysterical.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:35 PM on July 18, 2023

... aaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I would now like to once again link to the exciting story of how I picked my username.
posted by Flunkie at 2:41 PM on July 18, 2023

Does anybody know/can anybody figure out if the screenshot of him tweeting that is real (i.e. is a screenshot of a tweet or whatever, as opposed to just a screenshot), and if so, if the account that tweeted it is actually *the* Oleg Tsarev?

I believe it’s a telegram screengrab posted and translated on twitter by Anton Gerashchenko [sorry, twitter link previously, but it was the original translation AFAIK]. It’s inline with all other notices and advice given by Russian installed officials in occupied Crimea.

I mean, any official advice following "we urge you to take a family on a road trip through the war zone" is going to read as satire, isn’t it? What could they possibly say that wouldn’t be absolutely ridiculous?

Human shields.
posted by UN at 4:30 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]

More than 2,000 residents are being evacuated from four villages in Russian-occupied Crimea after a fire that triggered hours of explosions at a nearby ammunition depot.

Kyiv says Russia targets grain infrastructure with strikes on Ukraine's Odesa port

Moscow spurned calls from Ukraine to allow shipping to resume without Russian participation, with the Kremlin openly saying ships entering the area without its guarantees would be in danger.

"We're talking about an area that's close to a war zone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "Without the appropriate security guarantees, certain risks arise there. So if something is formalised without Russia, these risks should be taken into account."

Nice bulk freighter you've got there. Sure would be a shame if something happened to it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine. Footage and imagery published on July 17 and 18 show extensive traffic jams and accidents reportedly on the E58 Mariupol-Melitopol-Kherson City highway – Russia’s current main logistics line connecting Russia to southern Ukraine – at various points between Mariupol and Berdyansk, and in Kherson Oblast.

They apparently have one lane of the Kerch bridge open for Russia bound traffic.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:21 AM on July 19, 2023

I've seen it reported that the current agreement to provide the Storm Shadow/SCALP forbids its use on the Kerch Bridge, either as a civilian target or one 'within Russia.' If so, that restriction should be waived with respect to the bridge to permit its rail sections to be targeted, as soon as a launcher can be brought within range. Which will be soon, if not now.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:26 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]

NPR: Putin won't attend a South Africa summit next month, avoiding possible arrest

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa — Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending an economic summit in Johannesburg next month, South Africa's government said Wednesday. That lets the summit's host country breathe a sigh of relief from a critical legal dilemma of whether to act on an international arrest warrant issued for the Russian leader.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:18 AM on July 19, 2023

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine
I love how the article reports there being plans both to raise levels of security checks on the bridge - to prevent a follow up attack, and lower them to clear the log jam.
posted by rongorongo at 10:10 AM on July 19, 2023

Prigozhin has surfaced in a murky video indicating Wagner will now be used in Africa.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:51 AM on July 19, 2023

Of course the solution to the Kerch Straight Bridge has two opposite actions. It feels like more and more of the world is turning into navigating through the union of a Venn Diagram that’s two separate circles. Did the lead up to the last two world wars also feel like plodding inevitably towards a critical mass of mutually exclusive necessary actions?
posted by krisjohn at 3:24 PM on July 19, 2023

Some more on that Prigozhin video[Meduza]
The last bits are...interesting.
posted by CCBC at 3:57 PM on July 19, 2023

Russia allegedly attempting to start a reactor at ZNPP. IIRC, there's a comment above about how this is a prerequisite to creating a catastrophic nuclear disaster.
posted by krisjohn at 3:33 PM on July 20, 2023

They had to shut the bridge down again today because of an air raid siren. The bridge still is still limited to light rail traffic and the traffic jam is having an impact on their logistics. Ukraine will hit the bridge again and again.
posted by interogative mood at 3:48 PM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]

From the latest ISW report (emphasis theirs):

The Wagner Group reportedly suffered an 80 percent casualty rate and a 28 percent killed-in-action rate in Ukraine. A Wagner-linked source reportedly quoted a senior Wagner commander with the callsign “Marx,” who stated that 78,000 Wagner fighters fought in Ukraine (49,000 of whom were convicts), and that that Wagner had suffered 22,000 killed-in-action and 40,000 wounded-in-action as of Wagner’s capture of Bakhmut on May 20.[53] These figures — if accurate — indicate that the Wagner Group was likely combat ineffective after fighting in Bakhmut and that the force suffered a 79.5 percent overall casualty rate and a 28.2 percent death rate. Marx reportedly stated that 25,000 Wagner fighters are currently alive and that 10,000 of them are in Belarus and the remaining 15,000 are resting, presumably in Russia.[54]

Holy crap. Emphasis mine: Holy crap.

Some other notable things from today:

• Another $1.3 billion in military aid from the US ("National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), 152mm artillery rounds, mine-clearing equipment, and other munitions and vehicles.", plus "electronic warfare, communications, and other security equipment"), and a pledge of $22.4 billion over four years from the EU ("weapons, ammunition, and other military aid").

• Looks like Russia is trying to bomb the shit out of ports and other infrastructure that would be used for getting grain out via the Black Sea. Also, "The Russian military announced that it may consider civilian ships in the Black Sea en route to Ukrainian ports legitimate military targets". Alternative routes overland into (e.g.) Poland are facing local/EU pushback, as has been happening for a while now.

• New round of sanctions. I heard this in passing several hours ago on the radio, and didn't catch any details that I recall, but... good.

• More like meta-news, but it's interesting to me at least: ISW has added a couple new relatively zoomed-in maps (like the Bakhmut one they've had for a while now): Assessed Control of Terrain Around the Vremivka Salient and ... Around Pyatykhatky and Robotyne.

posted by Flunkie at 7:18 PM on July 20, 2023 [7 favorites]

Sounds like Girkin has been detained.
posted by Kabanos at 4:12 AM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]

Russia's media boss relays something her friends in Moscow joke about (on the topic of the Russian shipping embargo in the Black Sea):

Simonyan was, officially, addressing both Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the President of Kazakhstan, at the so-called international St Petersburg economic forum. She said the following: “A cynical joke or perhaps an exclamation has appeared, I’ve already heard it from several people in Moscow. ‘All hope is pinned on famine’. What is meant is that famine will begin and they [in the West] will come to their senses, will remove sanctions and will be friends with us because it’s impossible to not be friends.”

In an interview with Zelenskyy on German TV 3 or 4 months ago, he said, I'm paraphrasing: 'We keep trying to convey to our friends in the West that we're not dealing with normal people here.'

'Not normal' is an understatement.
posted by UN at 4:21 AM on July 21, 2023 [12 favorites]

Fuck me, that's bleak.
posted by Harald74 at 8:34 AM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]

Some more on that Prigozhin video[Meduza]
The last bits are...interesting.

Wow, that blatant homophobia is horrifying. Here's the last bit in the transcript:

Men in the crowd: We serve PMC Wagner! [Mr. Prigozhin], and we’ll go and wipe out the [anti-gay slur]. [Laughter.]

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Absolutely!

Men in the crowd: We’ll wipe out the [anti-gay slur] worldwide! Better BDSM than LGBT! [Laughter.]
posted by mediareport at 9:00 AM on July 21, 2023

Kabanos: Sounds like Girkin has been detained.

Apparently he's being charged with extremism.

Quotes from his tgm channel today..

"Miroslava Reginskaya, wife of Igor Strelkov:

Today, at about 11:30, representatives of the investigative committee came to us. I was not at home at that time. Soon, according to the concierge, they took my husband under the arms and took him away in an unknown direction.

From friends, I managed to find out that my husband was charged under article 282 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (extremism).

I do not know anything about the whereabouts of my husband, he did not get in touch. At the time of my arrest, I was not at home.,"

And later..

" Today, July 21, 2023, it became known that Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, a Russian military, state and political figure, a hero of the Novorossiya militia, was detained in his apartment in Moscow.

Igor Ivanovich is known to the country as a person who does not compromise in matters of protecting the national interests of Russia. This principled position compels his enemies and the enemies of our country to use methods of slander and provocation against him.

Igor Ivanovich openly and reasonably criticized the actions of government officials, including the president, but the freedom of speech provided by the state testified that the country's leadership complied with Article 29 of the Russian Constitution. Today, confidence in this is undermined - we see that processes are taking place in our country that indicate the departure of government representatives from basic values.

Recently, after the events of June 24 of this year, Igor Ivanovich consistently sought condemnation at the state level of the actions of an illegal armed group - PMC "Wagner" and the activities of its leader Prigozhin E.V., which caused open threats against him. His detention coincided with an attempt to split the organization "Angry Patriots Club" on the issue of the organization's attitude towards PMC "Wagner" and the consequences that the continued existence of armed and trained mercenaries, including criminals, not burdened by the oath of Russia, has for our country and our people.

We believe that today's detention undermines the confidence of the country's population in law enforcement agencies, that it is a continuation of the dishonest fight against Igor Ivanovich and has extremely negative consequences for the stability of the country in the conditions of the North Military District.

We express our unconditional support to Igor Ivanovich, as the leader of the "Angry Patriots Club", we demand that law enforcement officers release Strelkov and make public all those who ordered another provocation.

Companions of Igor Ivanovich Strelkov"
posted by Stoneshop at 10:09 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]

Well, too bad for Girkin that he's not got his owned powerful armed group. Otherwise he could probably just keep criticizing Putin to his heart's content.
posted by Harald74 at 12:10 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]

Apparently he's being charged with extremism.

Did they play the Curb Your Enthusiam music when they announced this?
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:49 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]

ZNPP reactor startup story continues.
posted by krisjohn at 3:15 PM on July 21, 2023

mediareport: "...blatant homophobia..."

The article by Gary Shteyngart [archive] points up the constant homophobia in Russian news.
I was intrigued that "LGBTQ+" is used in Russia. (How is it pronounced?) Shteyngart mentions a panel show where someone asks if "It is plus or minus".
posted by CCBC at 4:04 PM on July 21, 2023

ZNPP reactor startup story continues.

War crime in progress if true, and there should probably be some effort to let the alleged reactor workers know it.
posted by Artw at 4:11 PM on July 21, 2023

Yeah, sadly, the Ukrainian government pays lip service but in the trenches the enemy is "педор" which is short form of "pedorast" taken as [f-word gay slur]. Seems common on both sides. To me "Orc" is much better description.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:47 PM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]

There's a difference between a slur being common (if usually generic rather than actually directed towards gay people) and the vicious oppression that Russia is committing. Please don't both sides this; Ukraine may not be western Europe, but gay and lesbian soldiers can wear a Unicorn Battalion patch without being bashed, and a bill to allow civil partnerships is before the Rada.
posted by tavella at 10:50 PM on July 21, 2023 [18 favorites]

Re - cluster munitions: russian telegram channels are reporting a Geran hit on an ammunition depot in Zhytomyr region from the 19th of July. Based on the video it appears a large cache of cluster munitions was hit. (note the distinctive small explosions everywhere)
posted by kmt at 12:14 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]

ChrisO_wiki (@[e-mail])

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel has published large sections of a lengthy report, which according to State Duma deputy Mikhail Delyagin, was written by his fellow deputy from Kuzbass, the political strategist Oleg Matveychev. According to VChK-OGPU, the report was received by the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation before the Wagner Group's mutiny. After the mutiny, the go-ahead was given to arrest Girkin.

Also mentioned in the report: Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of RT.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:50 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]

Please don't both sides this

The Ukrainian state and society is pushing back against old thinking while Russia embraces it. What soldiers call their enemies on the front line is almost never PC.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:25 AM on July 22, 2023 [5 favorites]

“The bridge still is still limited to light rail traffic and the traffic jam is having an impact on their logistics. Ukraine will hit the bridge again and again.”

That brought to my mind one reason why militaries use high-velocity non-fragmenting rounds: a certain kill of one soldier does not do nearly as much damage to the enemy's efforts as two or three non-fatal casualties.

That bridge could be something of an albatross for Russia.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 10:14 AM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]

In other "not normal" news, Putin warns that Ukraine could be invaded and occupied by Poland.
posted by porpoise at 11:44 AM on July 22, 2023 [4 favorites]

Ukraine on LGBTQ+ issues seems to be about where the US is in terms of cultural acceptance, religious institutions and the use of terms that identify some as LGBTQ+ as a pejorative. I wish they were better but every country needs to do better at this and the changes we want are hard.
posted by interogative mood at 12:32 PM on July 22, 2023 [5 favorites]

The ChrisO_wiki thread that ChurchHatesTucker linked to earlier is very interesting.

My favorite part is that the report urges the Kremlin to "take repressive measures against those who are insane and with whom it is impossible to negotiate." I don't think Putin is necessarily insane, really -- definitely evil, but I don't know about insane -- but I've gotta admit my first thought was "Watch out, Vladimir, the Kremlin is coming for you!"

Does anyone know anything about this ChrisO_wiki guy, with regards to reliability and so forth? Or have any further info about this report?
posted by Flunkie at 3:20 PM on July 22, 2023

Chris_O is part of the Open Source Intelligence community. He seems well regarded by the others.

VChK-OGPU Telegram channel claims to report from insiders in Russian offices of power. All I can say is that OSINT people still quote it. AFAIK they're the only source on the report.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:05 PM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]

Does anyone maintain a good list of Telegram channels for coverage of this war? I don't know if it's a cultural thing in the region, or if this is just where everyone has gone, but Telegram really does feel like the place to be watching.
posted by krisjohn at 10:29 PM on July 22, 2023

Does anyone maintain a good list of Telegram channels for coverage of this war?

Not really. Telegram makes it very easy to cross post between channels, so people usually follow these cross post once they found a channel.

Here's some research by an Ukrainian org about the evolution of the Ukrainian tg segment and Telegram in general: From "Trukha" to Gordon: the most popular channels of the Ukrainian Telegram


Bear in mind that Ukraine tries to very strictly control information: you will never see clear videos of Ukrainian targets hit for example. The SBU is very keen on removing such videos (and arrest whoever records them). The Russians on the other hand flood the channels with "competing versions of reality" so it's very hard to distinguish fakes from legit info.
posted by kmt at 11:53 PM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]

The presence of Russians at the occupied Zaporizhzhya NPP is a key problem for nuclear safety - Herman Galushchenko (Minister of Energy of Ukraine).

“The responsibility for a possible disaster at the ZNPP is the country that started the war that occupied the station. You can expect any behavior from the Russians. They can go as far as the civilized world will allow them to do it,” the head of the Ministry of Energy said.

Herman Galushchenko stressed that the primary task is to force the Russians to leave the station.

“Any nuclear-energy games are a threat to hundreds of thousands of people who can be radioactively affected. These are kids, elderly people. Obviously, any incident at the station cannot be allowed, under certain scenarios, the consequences of the accident can be felt by neighboring countries with Ukraine,” he added.

(Auto-translated. I'm trialing Telegram Premium for automatic translations and Firefox Translations, by Mozilla.)
posted by krisjohn at 12:41 AM on July 23, 2023

A short interview with a Wagner junior commander from BBC Russia: Wagner mutiny: Junior commander reveals his role in the challenge to Putin:

A mercenary who took part in the attempted mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin says he and his fellow fighters "didn't have a clue" what was going on.

In the space of just 24 hours, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged an insurrection, sending troops into the southern city of Rostov, then further on towards Moscow.

Wagner fighters rarely talk to the media, but BBC Russian spoke to a junior commander who found himself in the middle of the action.
posted by Harald74 at 3:15 AM on July 23, 2023

This thread is about to expire. Don’t know what events to hang the next one on, though, and in any case I’m traveling and can’t compile links anyway. I hope someone else is up for it.
posted by Quasirandom at 6:41 AM on July 23, 2023

I might give it a go in the evening (GMT+1) sometime, but we're sort of in a limbo state in the (apparent) state of the war, so I don't see any obvious "hooks".
posted by Harald74 at 6:58 AM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

Just so we go full circle with this thread...

Lukaschenko and Putin are hanging out making veiled threats about marching into Rzeszów and Warsaw using Wagner PMC.

I mean, it seems unlikely, and of course we all know they do the opposite of what they say. But they're also not wise and definitely not normal, so who knows.

Wagner attempting to close off the Polish border from Belarus on the Ukrainian side — maybe something they'd attempt? I bet the military strategists on the Russian side have been hitting themselves for not attempting to do that at the start of the war.
posted by UN at 7:15 AM on July 23, 2023 [2 favorites]

Oh, please, wise leaders, go ahead and invade a heavily-armed country that's spent thirty years westernizing its military. Even apart from them being in NATO, honestly, palpatine_do_it.gif .
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:52 AM on July 23, 2023

There are supposedly about 25k surviving Wagner troops, split between Belarus and Russia, plus some number in Africa. That's not enough to make any credible military threat to Poland, though obviously it's enough to cause redeployments of Polish troops towards that area. It's more of a destabilization threat, not an invasion force.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:58 AM on July 23, 2023

UN: Wagner attempting to close off the Polish border from Belarus on the Ukrainian side

A 300km deep incursion from a country that's still only lukawarm supporting Putin's attempts at clinging onto his achievements so far? With at most 25k fighters? And they'd need to cover another 350km to reach Moldova, else the Romanian border would still be open.

Don't think that would have been even marginally more feasible at the start of the war with a Russian army contingent. How big a force would have been required, roughly, and what would actually have been available?
posted by Stoneshop at 10:26 AM on July 23, 2023

Flipping from keeping NATO from intervening because the threat of escalation is to high to directly* attacking a NATO country would certainly be a thing, especially if NATO and Russia manage to be in direct conflict and World War III doesn’t break out it means NATO is free to roll into Ukraine on the Ukraine side and utterly crush them there. Top logic all around.

* slightly indirectly if it’s a Russian PMC attacking on behalf of Russia from a Russian puppet state, but nobody is going to be fooled.
posted by Artw at 10:33 AM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Artw: * slightly indirectly if it’s a Russian PMC attacking on behalf of Russia from a Russian puppet state, but nobody is going to be fooled.

Oooohnonono, Wagner PMC is illegal in Russia, so it doesn't exist.

And don't ask why Putin has been paying a nonexistent entity and even admitted paying a nonexistent entity.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:37 AM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Putin/Lukaschenko are making these threats, so they are on the table. I think, as with the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which was considered to be totally improbable because it was so illogical, we're looking at half the picture if we're applying our ('normal') reasoning to their decision making.

Putting on my WW2 tinted glasses (which is how Putin and all the old Imperial Communists see the world): yeah why not open up a new front in the war. Their decision making isn't based on military capabilities but political desires and personality quirks— we're dealing with a death cult here.

The war has already reached the outskirts of Moscow. The foundation for logical thinking is a different one. They've been agitating against Poland for months and now they're intensifying in a similar way they did against Ukraine (basically: Stalin was too soft on those treasonous Slavic brothers).

I'm not saying they'll definitely invade Poland. But I'm not confident that they won't, either.
posted by UN at 10:56 AM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Maybe, these people are awful lunatics so you have to be ready for anything.

But I was on the side of things where the assumption was Putin WOULD invade because it looked like a quick win.

Fighting NATO is not likely a quick win except maybe if it goes [REDACTED] and Putin can claim victory out of the smouldering wreckage.
posted by Artw at 11:54 AM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

The idea seems utterly absurd and not really meriting discussion, but I have to admit that I would really love to see the look on Lukashenko's face on the phone call with Putin when he is told:

"Hey, you started your Belarusian war against NATO, not me. Good luck with the Belarusian-based 50% of the 20% of the mercenaries from the meat-grinder-tactics-based company who are lucky enough to still be alive and bodily intact... in your war against, let's see now, the United States, France, Germany, Great Britain, and dozens of other countries."
posted by Flunkie at 12:06 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

My main personal experience here is being threatened by Belarusian skinheads on the Moscow subway in 2006 or so, and they seemed to have the idea that Belarus has grievances against the US that people in the US should know and care about, so it IS possible that if you are from there you have some odd ideas about the degree to which your country is a big swinger in world events which people care about.
posted by Artw at 12:15 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

I would like to expand on what UN is saying: while from a military perspective, an action againt Poland is inconceivable (and rather stupid), from a political perspective it makes sort of a perverse sense.

I get the feeling that we (and by "we" I mean, "we in the west") don't have a taste for war (the USA is a bit of an outlier). We were even less expecting a massive WWI - style war where both Ukraine and Russia have lost more armored vehicles in any month of the war than most western armies have in total. These sort of wars were supposed to be impossible between peers, and any western-style government would have a very hard time selling any kind of massive war to its voters, unless directly attacked.

So, this is the question being raised since the Ukraine war started: what would happen if Russia were to test the resolve of NATO?

I read several interviews with Sergey Karaganov (former foreign policy advisor of Putin) where he said similar things. I can offer you this one from March 2022, reprinted in February 2023. It is bone-chilling, and profoundly cynical. I will copy the relevant passage:

BM You talked about demilitarisation of Ukraine, but it seems that such a goal would not be achieved if the West continues to provide Ukraine with weapons. Do you think Russia will be tempted to stop that flow of arms, and does this risk a direct clash between Nato and Russia?

SK Absolutely! There is a growing probability of a direct clash. And we don’t know what the outcome of this would be. Maybe the Poles would fight; they are always willing. I know as a historian that Article 5 of the Nato treaty is worthless. Under Article 5 – which allows a state to call for support from other members of the alliance – nobody is obliged to actually fight on behalf of others, but nobody can be absolutely sure that there would be no such escalation. [...]

If there is any sort of action, like a raid across the border from Belarus to Poland involving mercenaries, I don't see Poland taking it sitting down. But Russia has been signaling since the beginning of the war that they would not mind testing NATO.
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 12:16 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Uhh, well if they want to say “let’s put nukes aside and have a conventional war” I say fucking go for it because right now they are getting their ass handed to them.
posted by Artw at 12:19 PM on July 23, 2023

And the follow-up call By Jens Stoltenberg: "Luka, I've heard that Putin disowned you. Do you want to capitulate right now and hand us all the Wagner bits you can identify, or do you really want us to come and get them. And you and your lot, of course, in that case. Please call us back as soon as feasible, say, within 24 hours, so you have some time to think it over"
posted by Stoneshop at 12:20 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

If there is any sort of action, like a raid across the border from Belarus to Poland involving mercenaries, I don't see Poland taking it sitting down. But Russia has been signaling since the beginning of the war that they would not mind testing NATO.

If they tried with their current army (not some imaginary future army with full mobilization and better equipment), they'd get squished like a bug. It's farcical to even discuss. People like that guy you are quoting can talk as tough as they want, but it is not happening and they know it. The unreality of it is precisely why they can talk so tough -- it won't get tested, so it's easy to make loud noises.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:29 PM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

FWIW those threats barely made the news in Poland. Putin saying that Poland is about to invade Ukraine got a little more airtime mostly due to prompt denials.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:35 PM on July 23, 2023 [7 favorites]

It seems to me that NATO, and specially the US, has a pretty good understanding of what Russia can do and can't. Russia is like the schoolyard bully, always attacking far smaller kids in order to spread fear and seem bigger than they are. In Ukraine, they reached their limit, and we can all see it.
Remember all the things we are not giving Ukraine right now. Tanks, medium and long-range missiles. The fighter planes have barely arrived. I could speculate about the stuff we lay people don't even know we don't know, specially within information technology. Everything that would seriously allow Ukraine to hit critical infrastructure in Russia isn't there yet, though it might yet come. But if Russia or Belarus attacked a NATO member, that would all be applied at once -- or maybe 12 hours after that helpful call Stoneshop suggests.

For instance, now all of us lay people suddenly know that Rostov on Don is an important hub in for the Russian forces. We have seen civilians having a good time waving at the mercenary Wagner troops, and Prigozhin chatting with Russian top brass in the city. Right now, Ukraine can't do much about it. But if Russia takes one step into Poland, there will be missiles over Rostov a few hours later. Etc.

This kind of projective stuff is something I don't usually engage in, and I won't mind this comment being deleted, but I want to make it clear that Russia is not a formidable enemy, that NATO is prepared and that defeating Russian aggression doesn't need to imply MAD.

The most dangerous situation for us is an American president like Donald Trump, or a French one like Marine le Pen. People who for unknown reasons will submit to Russian force.
posted by mumimor at 1:02 PM on July 23, 2023 [6 favorites]

Russia also has a bunch weird little enclaves like Kalingrad that would immediately be up in the air instead of Unquestionably Russian for Reasons. It is not a winning proposition for them.
posted by Artw at 1:18 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Once Kaliningrad and things like that get a status update, China could be taking a real hard look at Vladivostok too
posted by jason_steakums at 2:19 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Vladivostok is a port on the Sea of Japan, and is in an area that was historically part of the Chinese Empire till like the 19th century.
posted by Flunkie at 2:38 PM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]

It's like 4,000 miles from the Caucasus, but honestly I was thinking they'd just negotiate it away for a song and minimal vague promises of humanitarian aid or even just change the maps with no pushback if Russia got themselves as close to falling apart as movement into actual NATO territory would put it very quickly
posted by jason_steakums at 2:40 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]

Anyone else remember a year ago when everyone was predicting a private-ish army would drive uninvited from Ukraine to the edges of Moscow?

Those remaining 25k Wagner troops... That's still a lot of disloyalty walking around. Putin isn't concerned if their final mission is a one way trip to hell. The question is: where?
posted by UN at 2:41 PM on July 23, 2023