COP28 Sucks. Pay Attention Anyway.
December 1, 2023 12:52 PM Subscribe
Writing for Heated Wednesday, Emily Atkin reminds us, “COP28 Sucks. Pay attention anyway. The fossil fuel interests attempting to corrupt the high-stakes summit would love nothing more than for us to look away.”
Cf.
“A Corrupted COP,” Bill McKibben, The Crucial Years, 28 November 2023
Cf.
“A Corrupted COP,” Bill McKibben, The Crucial Years, 28 November 2023
New revelations show just how bad the oil countries really are“Fossil fuel lobbyists pour into COP28,” Arielle Samuelson, Heated, 01 December 2023
The world's most important climate conference is a veritable who's who of polluter-funded climate delay.
Sorry, all efforts are good. Super cool that solar is accelerating! There also needs to be a realization that the change will occur and living in a different environment will be the new reality.
posted by sammyo at 1:55 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 1:55 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
“Carbon Notes 7 - The IEA's message to the oil and gas industry: wake up!” Adam Tooze, Chartbook, 23 November 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 2:38 PM on December 1, 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 2:38 PM on December 1, 2023
Would that even make a dent, the freight train of change is rolling and even a total elimination of giant ships, huge trucks and all the massive minivans would barely slow the current rate of heat death of the planet.
Simply not true. The current models suggest that with a complete cessation of fossil fuel burning there would be some continued warming, exacerbated by the removal of cooling aeresols from combustion, but then the temperature would level off. It's still not too late to level off at 1.5 C (but that window is closing fast) or 2.0 C if we act now.
Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming (Nature June 2022)
posted by hydropsyche at 2:48 PM on December 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
Simply not true. The current models suggest that with a complete cessation of fossil fuel burning there would be some continued warming, exacerbated by the removal of cooling aeresols from combustion, but then the temperature would level off. It's still not too late to level off at 1.5 C (but that window is closing fast) or 2.0 C if we act now.
Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming (Nature June 2022)
posted by hydropsyche at 2:48 PM on December 1, 2023 [14 favorites]
Help me with my understanding now, is this "1.5 C" the world temperature or the rate of increase? Because my point is that if it's a rate then holding to an increase rate is good but still increasing. So my "dent" is really just a small postponement.
And stopping gas immediately = genocide.
No good answers, I weep for the great grandchildren.
Yes burning oil is crazy, it should be reserved for plastics (the long lived essential parts not bags) and the few flying and rocketing applications that can't be done otherwise.
Need to develop a new science of analytic ecology that can derive a functional environment for the new temperature and weather in differing regions, perhaps using CRISPR or other genetic tools to help nudge evolution along just a bit (decades vs millenia). Certainly housing that makes severe weather survivable. Yes all alternative energies, like seriously fund fusion. Oh gosh charging stations and electric cars should be subsidised so very few think of buying anything else. (whew, infrastructure changes to switch over)
posted by sammyo at 4:27 PM on December 1, 2023
And stopping gas immediately = genocide.
No good answers, I weep for the great grandchildren.
Yes burning oil is crazy, it should be reserved for plastics (the long lived essential parts not bags) and the few flying and rocketing applications that can't be done otherwise.
Need to develop a new science of analytic ecology that can derive a functional environment for the new temperature and weather in differing regions, perhaps using CRISPR or other genetic tools to help nudge evolution along just a bit (decades vs millenia). Certainly housing that makes severe weather survivable. Yes all alternative energies, like seriously fund fusion. Oh gosh charging stations and electric cars should be subsidised so very few think of buying anything else. (whew, infrastructure changes to switch over)
posted by sammyo at 4:27 PM on December 1, 2023
The models say that we could still level off at a global mean temperature around 1.5 C above the 20th century mean. That would not be great, but it would not be the end of everything and it would not require genetically modifying wild species for them to survive. Right now we are at a global mean temperature of about 1.2 C above the 20th century mean. Species are already adapting to the warming. I'm not saying it's awesome. I'm saying it is not the doom you are depicting.
As I tell my students, the IPCC reports are written for global leaders to understand, and you are most likely smarter than a global leader. The same with the US National Climate Assessment reports. I recommend anyone with basic questions about our current understanding of the science to start with those summaries of the current understanding of the science.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:34 PM on December 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
As I tell my students, the IPCC reports are written for global leaders to understand, and you are most likely smarter than a global leader. The same with the US National Climate Assessment reports. I recommend anyone with basic questions about our current understanding of the science to start with those summaries of the current understanding of the science.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:34 PM on December 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
sammyo: “Help me with my understanding now, is this "1.5 C" the world temperature or the rate of increase? Because my point is that if it's a rate then holding to an increase rate is good but still increasing. So my "dent" is really just a small postponement. ”“The rapidly shrinking carbon budget,” Zeke Hausfather, The Climate Brink, 26 June 2023
sammyo: “No good answers, I weep for the great grandchildren. ”“The World Has Already Ended,” Alan Urban, Collapse Musings, 20 November 2023
Cf., “The World Has Already Ended,” Jessica Wildfire, OK Doomer, 11 September 2023
Also, “Can We Imagine Ourselves Surviving Together?” Kelly Hayes, 29 November 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 5:34 PM on December 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Sigh, came back to thank hydropsyche for just a smidge of optimism from a real ecologist, then ob1quixote gets there first with actual links. Heading back under the covers.
posted by sammyo at 6:29 PM on December 1, 2023
posted by sammyo at 6:29 PM on December 1, 2023
Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.
Lots of people are in denial and anger.
The people trying to talk themselves into believing 1.5C or 2C drawdown scenarios? Bargaining.
The doomers are the ones at depression, or sometimes acceptance if they have made their peace with it yet.
Humanity isn’t going to slow down our emissions. We just aren’t. It’s not going to happen. The doom is coming. But like any terminal disease, the real struggle is to come to grips with it. You’re not going to make it. Nobody is.
So, given that: what are you going to do with the time you have left? All I ask is to try not to be an asshole about it.
posted by notoriety public at 6:57 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Lots of people are in denial and anger.
The people trying to talk themselves into believing 1.5C or 2C drawdown scenarios? Bargaining.
The doomers are the ones at depression, or sometimes acceptance if they have made their peace with it yet.
Humanity isn’t going to slow down our emissions. We just aren’t. It’s not going to happen. The doom is coming. But like any terminal disease, the real struggle is to come to grips with it. You’re not going to make it. Nobody is.
So, given that: what are you going to do with the time you have left? All I ask is to try not to be an asshole about it.
posted by notoriety public at 6:57 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Bill McKibben:
the UAE’s close ally, Saudi Arabia, hard at work on an Oil Development Sustainability Programme which involved hooking African and Asian nations on fossil fuels. It is almost cartoonishly villainous...
posted by doctornemo at 7:02 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
the UAE’s close ally, Saudi Arabia, hard at work on an Oil Development Sustainability Programme which involved hooking African and Asian nations on fossil fuels. It is almost cartoonishly villainous...
posted by doctornemo at 7:02 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
I mean, we built a national non carbon power system 50 years ago in France.
Getting off carbon is just expensive. Ammonia is about as energy dense as hydrocarbons and can be synthesized efficiently (60-88%) so solves the shipping transport problem (fuel).
It will cost a lot. That will require either impoverishing/starving people, or rich people paying for it.
Rich people don't want to pay for it.
The future adter we break CO2 required to generate energy is a great one. With no more CO2 limit, we can rapidly ramp up energy use: the thermo limit is way way higher than the CO2 limit. And a high energy clean future looks better than the present.
But we have to either starve 3 billion people or make a few 100 billionares poorer.
posted by NotAYakk at 7:38 PM on December 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
Getting off carbon is just expensive. Ammonia is about as energy dense as hydrocarbons and can be synthesized efficiently (60-88%) so solves the shipping transport problem (fuel).
It will cost a lot. That will require either impoverishing/starving people, or rich people paying for it.
Rich people don't want to pay for it.
The future adter we break CO2 required to generate energy is a great one. With no more CO2 limit, we can rapidly ramp up energy use: the thermo limit is way way higher than the CO2 limit. And a high energy clean future looks better than the present.
But we have to either starve 3 billion people or make a few 100 billionares poorer.
posted by NotAYakk at 7:38 PM on December 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
Well at least they won't have to spend big bucks on Ozempic.
posted by sammyo at 8:17 PM on December 1, 2023
posted by sammyo at 8:17 PM on December 1, 2023
What is up with the doomerism on this thread. Come down to Louisiana, see how these companies are squirming and trying to block wind power from happening.
If you want to join the struggle for the 80 percent reduction in capex in oil and gas companies, support the communities that have been shutting them down already, join the people who are already their "capital discipline" departments.
The Louisiana climate action plan is open for comment.
posted by eustatic at 10:36 AM on December 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
If you want to join the struggle for the 80 percent reduction in capex in oil and gas companies, support the communities that have been shutting them down already, join the people who are already their "capital discipline" departments.
The Louisiana climate action plan is open for comment.
posted by eustatic at 10:36 AM on December 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
“Open secret at climate talks: The top temperature goal is mostly gone,” Chelsea Harvey, Politico, 03 December 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 6:03 PM on December 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by ob1quixote at 6:03 PM on December 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
COP is a farce as always.
A Lifeboat of people can survive, but well, I haven't finished writing that book yet. Maybe a small(-ish?) network of Lifeboats, I don't know the precise parameters that will succeed. But I know the way to do it. I have much written on all of this already.
People have to live a different way. Leave the follies of the past behind - stop repeating History's Worst Mistakes. You have permission to choose good over bad, so do it.
Form communities based on fairness with other good people and don't let any jerks in, or they will ruin it (behold the world they have wrought - just look around you). Use questionnaires and other methods to find likeminded people with aligned goals, and filter out anyone who thinks it's okay to gain by harming others. That's just one litmus test question, there are other important criteria as well. Be wise.
Use much less energy.
Live harmoniously. Share the burdens fairly, share the goodies fairly, share the luxuries fairly, and maintain community solidarity through hardship - there will be plenty coming. Maintain good mechanisms for human development, with lifelong education and Art participation. Flourish the minds of everyone in the community, as everyone's talents will be needed. Allocate labor in a flexible way, spreading out the physical labor so that no one gets too injured. In the Aftertimes, surgical repair of severe joint injuries will be difficult to come by, if available at all.
Safety for the children is paramount. Have defenders who keep everyone safe from marauders and also don't discount internal threats. Vet them carefully, give them a good mythos to buy into, of Protectors who don't fall into hubris. I have a lot of this material already written.
Have a maximum population goal of no more than 15,000 people. Be wise, don't get greedy with population numbers, because famines are coming. Multiple. Earth is in overshoot. The famines will kill billions. Some quickly, some slowly.
Prepare. Stockpile tools and solar panels and so forth, of course also food and water purification equipment. Build settlements away from cities. The cities will be a bloodbath when the grid goes down and stays down. Fuel deliveries will stop coming, food deliveries will stop coming. The Authorities will abandon you. Help will not be coming.
Make a Lifeboat. The ship has hit the iceberg, and is taking on water. It's already starting to list to starboard. Form your group, obtain land, start building. Get your permaculture setup going. Be ready before things fall down.
Do what you can. You have been warned.
I'm just a nobody, though, and no one listens to me. Alas. But I have special knowledge. And a lot of writing to do. So I will keep working on my mission.
posted by cats are weird at 11:56 PM on December 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
A Lifeboat of people can survive, but well, I haven't finished writing that book yet. Maybe a small(-ish?) network of Lifeboats, I don't know the precise parameters that will succeed. But I know the way to do it. I have much written on all of this already.
People have to live a different way. Leave the follies of the past behind - stop repeating History's Worst Mistakes. You have permission to choose good over bad, so do it.
Form communities based on fairness with other good people and don't let any jerks in, or they will ruin it (behold the world they have wrought - just look around you). Use questionnaires and other methods to find likeminded people with aligned goals, and filter out anyone who thinks it's okay to gain by harming others. That's just one litmus test question, there are other important criteria as well. Be wise.
Use much less energy.
Live harmoniously. Share the burdens fairly, share the goodies fairly, share the luxuries fairly, and maintain community solidarity through hardship - there will be plenty coming. Maintain good mechanisms for human development, with lifelong education and Art participation. Flourish the minds of everyone in the community, as everyone's talents will be needed. Allocate labor in a flexible way, spreading out the physical labor so that no one gets too injured. In the Aftertimes, surgical repair of severe joint injuries will be difficult to come by, if available at all.
Safety for the children is paramount. Have defenders who keep everyone safe from marauders and also don't discount internal threats. Vet them carefully, give them a good mythos to buy into, of Protectors who don't fall into hubris. I have a lot of this material already written.
Have a maximum population goal of no more than 15,000 people. Be wise, don't get greedy with population numbers, because famines are coming. Multiple. Earth is in overshoot. The famines will kill billions. Some quickly, some slowly.
Prepare. Stockpile tools and solar panels and so forth, of course also food and water purification equipment. Build settlements away from cities. The cities will be a bloodbath when the grid goes down and stays down. Fuel deliveries will stop coming, food deliveries will stop coming. The Authorities will abandon you. Help will not be coming.
Make a Lifeboat. The ship has hit the iceberg, and is taking on water. It's already starting to list to starboard. Form your group, obtain land, start building. Get your permaculture setup going. Be ready before things fall down.
Do what you can. You have been warned.
I'm just a nobody, though, and no one listens to me. Alas. But I have special knowledge. And a lot of writing to do. So I will keep working on my mission.
posted by cats are weird at 11:56 PM on December 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
I disagree overall notoriety public. I do agree that afaik nations, or any familiar governmental form, cannot reduce their energy usage, cannot substitue an inferior/decentralized energy source for a superior/centralized one. Also nations cannot impose such things upon their allies or trading partners. "It’s not going to happen" so long as the world remains one large trading block sure, but..
If our world stops being one trading block, then our transition need not remain collaborative, and then other options present themselves. We cannot expect "hippies" to wreck the means of combustion, but adversarial nations can absolutely do this to one another.
It need not even be "war" in our "resource extractive" sense, but merely a normalization of international violence against fossil fuel infrastructure, meat consumption, etc. Initially, it need not be done for enviromental reasons either, but merely nations desciding that their adversaries should not have petrolium access. We only had WWII because we'd enough oil for war.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:30 AM on December 4, 2023
If our world stops being one trading block, then our transition need not remain collaborative, and then other options present themselves. We cannot expect "hippies" to wreck the means of combustion, but adversarial nations can absolutely do this to one another.
It need not even be "war" in our "resource extractive" sense, but merely a normalization of international violence against fossil fuel infrastructure, meat consumption, etc. Initially, it need not be done for enviromental reasons either, but merely nations desciding that their adversaries should not have petrolium access. We only had WWII because we'd enough oil for war.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:30 AM on December 4, 2023
Importantly, three planetary boundaries look riskier than climate change, which makes real economic collapse preferable.
I've one friend who loves the aliens conspiracy hype by Robert Bigelow so I tease him by saying the aliens could've already saved us by teaching us to burn the oil instead of turning it all into plastics.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:44 AM on December 4, 2023
I've one friend who loves the aliens conspiracy hype by Robert Bigelow so I tease him by saying the aliens could've already saved us by teaching us to burn the oil instead of turning it all into plastics.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:44 AM on December 4, 2023
This is from a few years ago, but it was in today's Chartbook.
“Guest post: How ‘discourses of delay’ are used to slow climate action,” Dr. William F Lamb, Carbon Brief, 06 July 2020
posted by ob1quixote at 4:58 PM on December 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
“Guest post: How ‘discourses of delay’ are used to slow climate action,” Dr. William F Lamb, Carbon Brief, 06 July 2020
posted by ob1quixote at 4:58 PM on December 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
“UUSC’s Partners Demand FAIR Goals for Climate Conference,” Mike Givens, Unitarian Universalist Service Committee, 20 November 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 11:36 AM on December 7, 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 11:36 AM on December 7, 2023
“Top climatologists slam Sultan Al Jaber's ‘no science’ claim on fossil fuel phaseout,” Emily Atkin, Heated, 07 December 2023
“There is no scenario to limit warming to 1.5°C that does not include the rapid phase out of fossil fuels.”posted by ob1quixote at 12:36 PM on December 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
BeyondGrowth: Blueprint for a social and green deal (previously)
posted by jeffburdges at 9:03 AM on December 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jeffburdges at 9:03 AM on December 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
“The COP is the Scoreboard, not the Game,” Bill McKibben, The Crucial Years, 08 December 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 4:38 PM on December 8, 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 4:38 PM on December 8, 2023
@Climatehistories@mastodon.socialposted by ob1quixote at 7:40 AM on December 10, 2023What one outcome would you like to see from #COP28 🌍Dec 08, 2023, 10:40
George Monbiot goes right to the heart of the global climate crisis.
(video👇from BBC Question Time)
COP28 and UK Energy Questions | BBC Question Time | 7 December 2023 | Just Stop Oil
#climatechange
“Oil Nations’ Commitment to Destroying Planet Threatens Climate Summit,” Nikki McCann Ramirez, Rolling Stone, 11 December 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 11:20 AM on December 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by ob1quixote at 11:20 AM on December 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
“The 12-year-old who halted COP28,” Emily Atkin, Heated, 12 December 2023
It is indicative of the world's total systemic failure to slow climate change that a child feels she must do the job of adults.posted by ob1quixote at 12:50 PM on December 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
Quick response to the draft final text of COP28 by Kevin Anderson
Approaching 1.5 °C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark?
In brief, the IPCC's concervative approach, based purely upon observations, would identify 1.5°C of warming "a decade after crossing the 1.5°C level".
Here's what countries [said on 8 December] using normal human language
COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai from CarbonBrief.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:58 PM on December 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
The final text from COP28 is a death knell for the stronger 1.5°C commitment of the Paris Agreement and even puts the much weaker 2°C obligation on critical life-support. No doubt there will be lots of cheer and back-slapping among many pontificators and even some climate ‘experts’, but the physics will not care. As the new agreement locks in high levels of emissions for years to come, so the temperature will continue to rise.“A Miracle Will Occur” Is Not Sensible Climate Policy by Hanson, Kharecha, Sato
Approaching 1.5 °C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark?
In brief, the IPCC's concervative approach, based purely upon observations, would identify 1.5°C of warming "a decade after crossing the 1.5°C level".
Here's what countries [said on 8 December] using normal human language
COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai from CarbonBrief.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:58 PM on December 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
“COP-OUT28,” Geoff Deihl, OK Doomer, 17 December 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 4:14 PM on December 17, 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 4:14 PM on December 17, 2023
Around the Steve Keen post from last year..
"Tongue-in-cheek, one could say climate accords are driving climate change. That's stupid, though. Right?"
"No, I don't think so. Because the accord basis has always been bullshit climate-econ 'emissions scenarios' we accepted uncritically, distracting us from seeking true solutions /1"
No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change by Tim J. Garrett
".. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse."
posted by jeffburdges at 4:18 PM on December 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Tongue-in-cheek, one could say climate accords are driving climate change. That's stupid, though. Right?"
"No, I don't think so. Because the accord basis has always been bullshit climate-econ 'emissions scenarios' we accepted uncritically, distracting us from seeking true solutions /1"
No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change by Tim J. Garrett
".. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse."
posted by jeffburdges at 4:18 PM on December 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Is the US going to approve the single biggest fossil-fuel expansion on earth?
"Biden has a chance to show that the world’s biggest exporter of oil and gas is actually going to change its ways. It’s not clear if he’ll take it."
Japan's environment ministry says they've detected much larger increases in China's CO2 emissions from satellite data than indicated by China's own data.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:39 PM on December 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
"Biden has a chance to show that the world’s biggest exporter of oil and gas is actually going to change its ways. It’s not clear if he’ll take it."
Japan's environment ministry says they've detected much larger increases in China's CO2 emissions from satellite data than indicated by China's own data.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:39 PM on December 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
“Saudi Arabia’s Secret Plan To Keep Us Hooked On Oil”—Climate Town, 19 December 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 5:43 PM on December 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 5:43 PM on December 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
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But really, all cynicism
asideincluded, what actual effort would be the slightest iota significant?Shut down petroleum? Would that even make a dent, the freight train of change is rolling and even a total elimination of giant ships, huge trucks and all the massive minivans would barely slow the current rate of heat death of the planet. Not to mention being essentially a food riot genocide. It's not just pelotons and fast fashion getting shipped.
So carbon capture? Ya sure, can you even do that without petroleum to ship the massive amounts of (magic) equipment that would be needed, not to mention a way to dig deep holes to store the stuff.
Need research into full body environmental suits maybe.
posted by sammyo at 1:53 PM on December 1, 2023 [2 favorites]