Hurricane Milton headed to Tampa
October 7, 2024 11:30 AM Subscribe
Hurricane Milton is currently category 5 and 175 mph. The predicted center of its landfall is just north of Tampa, Florida, a worst case disaster scenario, with damage predicted in the hundreds of billions.
Its rapid intensification has been at record rates. It may well continue to increase in speed and go below 900 mb.
A 175 mph hurricane causes 879 times the wind damage as a 75 mph hurricane.
The possible collapse of homeowner property insurance.
This follows the horrific landfall of Helene.
Its rapid intensification has been at record rates. It may well continue to increase in speed and go below 900 mb.
A 175 mph hurricane causes 879 times the wind damage as a 75 mph hurricane.
The possible collapse of homeowner property insurance.
This follows the horrific landfall of Helene.
At what point does the Florida mindset suddenly shift and the idea that it’s climate change arises out of the depths of their subconscious? I hope they have things planned to deal with this no matter what.
posted by njohnson23 at 11:46 AM on October 7 [7 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 11:46 AM on October 7 [7 favorites]
And the Governor of Florida is also refusing to take a phone call from the current Vice President because "it sounds like it's political".
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:47 AM on October 7 [32 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:47 AM on October 7 [32 favorites]
I live in Canada. Earlier this year I got on a bus and found myself in a position where I couldn't keep from overhearing a conversation that three people were holding. One of the speakers was a retirement age woman, and she asserted that Everybody wants to live in Florida, and the others agreed with her. No argument, everyone wants to have a retirement property in Florida.
I didn't intrude to let them know that I thought there were some reasons why "everybody" might be being misled in the value of investing their retirement capital in Florida, I just thought to myself that their views entirely reflected what the governor of Florida was hoping for when he made it illegal for state employees to talk about climate change.
posted by Jane the Brown at 11:53 AM on October 7 [26 favorites]
I didn't intrude to let them know that I thought there were some reasons why "everybody" might be being misled in the value of investing their retirement capital in Florida, I just thought to myself that their views entirely reflected what the governor of Florida was hoping for when he made it illegal for state employees to talk about climate change.
posted by Jane the Brown at 11:53 AM on October 7 [26 favorites]
Some people would rather die than admit they were wrong.
posted by box at 11:56 AM on October 7 [19 favorites]
posted by box at 11:56 AM on October 7 [19 favorites]
New post at Yale Climate Center.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:57 AM on October 7 [7 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:57 AM on October 7 [7 favorites]
At what point does the Florida mindset suddenly shift
If minds have been set by a political false religion whose doctrine says believing in climate change means you go to Hell, then probably never. This is the way many of them think (I have also seen this from the inside - fortunately a science degree blows the madness away, but prob. explains why Right wing so anti edu).
posted by unearthed at 11:58 AM on October 7 [4 favorites]
If minds have been set by a political false religion whose doctrine says believing in climate change means you go to Hell, then probably never. This is the way many of them think (I have also seen this from the inside - fortunately a science degree blows the madness away, but prob. explains why Right wing so anti edu).
posted by unearthed at 11:58 AM on October 7 [4 favorites]
I hope they have things planned to deal with this
How, exactly does one deal with a major hurricane (except by evacuation)?
posted by Rash at 12:00 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
How, exactly does one deal with a major hurricane (except by evacuation)?
posted by Rash at 12:00 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
Youtube's been feeding me storm news for a while now so I got to see Helene coming from two weeks ago, and saw this one forming a week ago.
This one's weird because it's a curveball coming from the west not east or south, pulling energy from the gulf the whole way.
posted by torokunai at 12:04 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
This one's weird because it's a curveball coming from the west not east or south, pulling energy from the gulf the whole way.
posted by torokunai at 12:04 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Between 1954 (the first year storms had alphabetical names) and 1988 no storm later than J had been retired, about the half-way point to now. Since 1989 24 storms named from K onwards have been retired. That is a very damning comment on the growth in strength in later season storms.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:05 PM on October 7 [31 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:05 PM on October 7 [31 favorites]
I have friends living there who are not currently under evacuation order but are very close to areas that are, trying to decide if avoiding the storm is worth the financial hit involved in evacuating. God help the people down there.
posted by pattern juggler at 12:12 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 12:12 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Meanwhile, Marjorie Taylor-Green is on Twitter blaming the hurricanes on "them." As she says, "they" control the weather. I'm totally expecting that that will be the new denial of climate change among the far right; yes, the storms are undeniably becoming more dangerous, but it has nothing to do with climate change. It's "them"!
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 12:13 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 12:13 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
more from Yale Climate Center specific to Tampa Bay area.
posted by supermedusa at 12:13 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
posted by supermedusa at 12:13 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
The really crazy thing is the angle at which this is approaching, just head on from the west going dead east. I've never seen anything like that in the twenty years I have lived in the US - am I wrong here? Hurricanes usually come in from the south-east or south-ish, going north or north-west as they make landfall, right? (edited directions because my brain is borking today on left vs right, east vs west etc)
posted by MiraK at 12:14 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
posted by MiraK at 12:14 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
Them? Giant radioactive ants?
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:15 PM on October 7 [18 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:15 PM on October 7 [18 favorites]
The really crazy thing is the angle at which this is approaching
that's how you know it's been aimed by their space lasers
posted by BungaDunga at 12:19 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
that's how you know it's been aimed by their space lasers
posted by BungaDunga at 12:19 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
More updates coming from Yale Climate Center. Bonus points for the bleak humor:
Ironically, we cannot show Climate Central’s “Climate Shift Index: Ocean” for Milton, showing how much more likely climate change made the record-warm ocean temperatures possible – because the data for that product comes from NOAA NCEI facility in Asheville, North Carolina, which was severely affected by record flooding spawned by Hurricane Helene two weeks ago.posted by Mayor West at 12:20 PM on October 7 [50 favorites]
Them? Giant radioactive ants?
As someone who still (sometimes at the expense of my mental health and hope for the future of humanity) maintains a Xitter account, it brings me no joy to let you know that "them" refers to weather-controlling, hurricane-weaponizing, liberal scientists trying to suppress the Republican vote in North Carolina and Florida.
My heart goes out to everyone who will be affected by this storm.
posted by vverse23 at 12:20 PM on October 7 [5 favorites]
As someone who still (sometimes at the expense of my mental health and hope for the future of humanity) maintains a Xitter account, it brings me no joy to let you know that "them" refers to weather-controlling, hurricane-weaponizing, liberal scientists trying to suppress the Republican vote in North Carolina and Florida.
My heart goes out to everyone who will be affected by this storm.
posted by vverse23 at 12:20 PM on October 7 [5 favorites]
A counterpoint to the “they control the weather “ right wing paranoia is that California has experienced extreme weather related events as well.
posted by waving at 12:21 PM on October 7
posted by waving at 12:21 PM on October 7
My parents had a house in this area. It was seriously damaged by Hurricane Ian. It had to be gutted, but even after paying to fix it up, they still managed to sell it at a profit a few months later, when storm impacts to the neighborhood were still visibly obvious to the buyer. People somehow manage to imagine it will never happen to them even when it's obvious that it will.
In some parts of this region, homes SHOULDN'T be insurable. And in some, the government should be denying occupancy permits: people should not be allowed to live in places where the government needs to provide infrastructure and emergency assistance, and where the detritus from their homes' foreseeable destruction is going to cause pollution.
posted by metasarah at 12:21 PM on October 7 [22 favorites]
In some parts of this region, homes SHOULDN'T be insurable. And in some, the government should be denying occupancy permits: people should not be allowed to live in places where the government needs to provide infrastructure and emergency assistance, and where the detritus from their homes' foreseeable destruction is going to cause pollution.
posted by metasarah at 12:21 PM on October 7 [22 favorites]
I wanted to pull this out of the Yale Climate Center analysis:
A devastating storm surge likely even if Milton weakens to a Cat 2 or Cat 3 at landfallposted by gwint at 12:22 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
Milton’s tremendous Cat 5 winds are putting a large amount of ocean water on the move. If Milton weakens significantly to Cat 2 or Cat 3 strength by landfall, as currently predicted by most of the hurricane models, this process will spread Milton’s strongest winds over a wider area of ocean, increasing the volume of water put in motion. When Milton crosses over into the shallow waters of the continental shelf, 90 miles (145 km) offshore of Florida, this swirling water will form a large dome that will push onto the shore, creating a massive and destructive storm surge that will be more characteristic of a Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane than a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane. A sobering fact: three of the most destructive Atlantic hurricanes on record were former Cat 4 or Cat 5 storms that were weakening in the 12 hours leading up to landfall. These include the costliest weather disaster in world history (Hurricane Katrina of 2005, with $191 billion in damage; Cat 5 peak, Cat 3 at landfall), Hurricane Rita of 2005 ($28 billion; Cat 5 peak, Cat 3 at landfall), and Hurricane Opal of 1995 ($10 billion; Cat 4 peak, Cat 3 at landfall)
Just a reminder that
1) when a hurricane hits any part of Florida, the people harmed are varied and not all one monolithic Florida Mindset about climate change.
2) in the topic of this post, we're talking about hitting Tampa, which being a city leans less fash-enabling than the state as a whole. Hillsborough County voted majority Biden in 2020, for example.
posted by away for regrooving at 12:24 PM on October 7 [74 favorites]
1) when a hurricane hits any part of Florida, the people harmed are varied and not all one monolithic Florida Mindset about climate change.
2) in the topic of this post, we're talking about hitting Tampa, which being a city leans less fash-enabling than the state as a whole. Hillsborough County voted majority Biden in 2020, for example.
posted by away for regrooving at 12:24 PM on October 7 [74 favorites]
My partner is checking in on people we know around Tampa. One person says they’ll just put the storm shutters up to ride it out and accept their boat will be lost. The other hasn’t decided yet if they’ll bother evacuating, but considering that they are currently homeless due to the last hurricane floodwaters damaging their apartment they’ll probably go to a shelter, right?
posted by lepus at 12:29 PM on October 7
posted by lepus at 12:29 PM on October 7
Here's the ongoing Metatalk thread on Helene
At the very least 130K still without power in NC!
posted by gwint at 12:33 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
At the very least 130K still without power in NC!
posted by gwint at 12:33 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
Them: Sharpie wielding Cheetos?
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:34 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:34 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
I'm going to ask folks to not even joke about the anti-semetic bs around "them" or space lasers. it's just too much with everything else going on and it's not a joke when people foment or make light of the foment.
posted by kokaku at 12:38 PM on October 7 [44 favorites]
posted by kokaku at 12:38 PM on October 7 [44 favorites]
Hurricanes are developing a devastating left hook.
posted by jamjam at 12:39 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by jamjam at 12:39 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
1) when a hurricane hits any part of Florida, the people harmed are varied and not all one monolithic Florida Mindset about climate change.
Very true. But one thing that is true for all Floridians is that their ability to live comfortably there is an engineering marvel.
If you want to have nice things, you need to live a few feet below a good water reservoir, and a few feet above a sewage treatment plant. I get my water from Quabbin, a 700' drop from a reservoir whose water is jealously guarded by the kind of eco fanatics you'd expect on the payroll of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. And my sewage drops 20 feet before reaching the plant. Nowhere in Florida is this true.
Florida is about to show the limits of civil engineering. Nobody should be blamed for not having a civil engineering major for a roommate in college who could talk your ear off. That's how I know these things. But nature doesn't care.
posted by ocschwar at 12:40 PM on October 7 [19 favorites]
Very true. But one thing that is true for all Floridians is that their ability to live comfortably there is an engineering marvel.
If you want to have nice things, you need to live a few feet below a good water reservoir, and a few feet above a sewage treatment plant. I get my water from Quabbin, a 700' drop from a reservoir whose water is jealously guarded by the kind of eco fanatics you'd expect on the payroll of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. And my sewage drops 20 feet before reaching the plant. Nowhere in Florida is this true.
Florida is about to show the limits of civil engineering. Nobody should be blamed for not having a civil engineering major for a roommate in college who could talk your ear off. That's how I know these things. But nature doesn't care.
posted by ocschwar at 12:40 PM on October 7 [19 favorites]
Close friend with a winter home just north of St. Pete just spent the week cleaning out 2' of water, trying to salvage the property after Helene. This one looks like it will be much worse, and his property is practically right at the current expected landfall.
posted by MtDewd at 12:41 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
posted by MtDewd at 12:41 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
Boy it sure is a good thing that it's cheap and easy to uproot your entire life and move somewhere else that isn't vulnerable to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, drought, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, etc.
posted by Foosnark at 12:47 PM on October 7 [54 favorites]
posted by Foosnark at 12:47 PM on October 7 [54 favorites]
My dad's place in Asheville was destroyed, but Helene spared the rest of my family in Clearwater. Now we get the follow up. I'm likely to be the only one in my immediate family with a roof over my head come thursday. It's stressing me the fuck out
posted by dis_integration at 12:47 PM on October 7 [41 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 12:47 PM on October 7 [41 favorites]
I've seen some indications among Florida friends and colleagues that things aren't great at the moment. Gas availability is apparently an issue in some area, and ditto problems prepping due to Helene shortages.
posted by cupcakeninja at 12:52 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
posted by cupcakeninja at 12:52 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
This has the markings of a Katrina level disaster. Biden should give a national address in advance.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:53 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:53 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
At what point does the Florida mindset suddenly shift and the idea that it’s climate change arises out of the depths of their subconscious?
LOL it's going to be like 1.5 years before every last one of the godbags and racists and "Christians" turns on a dime, simultaneously, at Cat 5 speed, from "climate change is a Gynese Hoax" to "climate change is REAL and it's the vengeance of 'god' for not burning queers at the stake". You're going to be astonished, and appalled, and you'll be like "at least something broke through the jadedness?" Just watch.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 12:55 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
LOL it's going to be like 1.5 years before every last one of the godbags and racists and "Christians" turns on a dime, simultaneously, at Cat 5 speed, from "climate change is a Gynese Hoax" to "climate change is REAL and it's the vengeance of 'god' for not burning queers at the stake". You're going to be astonished, and appalled, and you'll be like "at least something broke through the jadedness?" Just watch.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 12:55 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
I think getting hit twice in a row by two giant hurricanes is not something you can plan for/ build for. There is clearly no one place where floods or fires can't get you. But Florida in particular just seems impossible to protect. There are lots of good people there and I'm not rejoicing in their suffering, although if Mar-a-Lago and DeSantis' houses got flattened it wouldn't bother me. But I'm more concerned with the regular people who are going to lose their homes and livelihoods, if they can even stay safe.
posted by emjaybee at 1:00 PM on October 7 [12 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 1:00 PM on October 7 [12 favorites]
for the BEST coverage of this event go here
Dr Levi is awesome
youtube
posted by robbyrobs at 1:00 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Dr Levi is awesome
youtube
posted by robbyrobs at 1:00 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
My dad moved to Florida (Cape Coral) barely two months ago and this is like the third storm in that time. He moved into his new house only last week and now he's evacuating to Fort Lauderdale for the next several days. Hope the house doesn't get flooded while he's away.
posted by downtohisturtles at 1:03 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by downtohisturtles at 1:03 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
The Great Florida Migration Is Coming Undone
A surplus of housing inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales. Hurricanes and extreme weather are making it worse.
America Is Lying to Itself About the Cost of Disasters
Exceptional circumstances, too often repeated, cease to be exceptions.
My all time favorite hurricane scene in a movie
posted by robbyrobs at 1:03 PM on October 7 [21 favorites]
A surplus of housing inventory and dwindling buyer interest are slowing sales. Hurricanes and extreme weather are making it worse.
America Is Lying to Itself About the Cost of Disasters
Exceptional circumstances, too often repeated, cease to be exceptions.
My all time favorite hurricane scene in a movie
posted by robbyrobs at 1:03 PM on October 7 [21 favorites]
> Meanwhile, Marjorie Taylor-Green is on Twitter blaming the hurricanes on "them." As she says, "they" control the weather. I'm totally expecting that that will be the new denial of climate change among the far right; yes, the storms are undeniably becoming more dangerous, but it has nothing to do with climate change. It's "them"!
The worse things get, the more traumatized people become, the more they will confect fantasies which both explain the blind and random operations of fate and shift the blame from the real causes, which are too hard to face, onto the Other with a capital O, who is easy to face, because we made them up
posted by dis_integration at 1:03 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
The worse things get, the more traumatized people become, the more they will confect fantasies which both explain the blind and random operations of fate and shift the blame from the real causes, which are too hard to face, onto the Other with a capital O, who is easy to face, because we made them up
posted by dis_integration at 1:03 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
As mentioned on the Blue, my dad lives in Cedar Key, FL, which turned out to be pretty fucking flattened by Helene. Milton is expected to make landfall somewhere between Cedar Key to the northwest and Naples to the south. An island town of about 700 people connected to the mainland of Florida by a causeway, Cedar Key is rapidly becoming a lost cause and I have no idea if they could ever really recover, especially since I believe this will start to be the norm in the years to come.
My stepmom is a 3rd gen Cedar Key native and will likely have to be taken from the island in a body bag because she and my dad rarely evacuate. (They didn't during Helene, the fools.)
posted by Kitteh at 1:06 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
My stepmom is a 3rd gen Cedar Key native and will likely have to be taken from the island in a body bag because she and my dad rarely evacuate. (They didn't during Helene, the fools.)
posted by Kitteh at 1:06 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
Meanwhile, Marjorie Taylor-Green is on Twitter blaming the hurricanes on "them." As she says, "they"
is that code for "the gays"? Because back in time (Jerry Falwell ) it was the gays and their lifestyle that brought all the calamity of such storms
posted by robbyrobs at 1:07 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
is that code for "the gays"? Because back in time (Jerry Falwell ) it was the gays and their lifestyle that brought all the calamity of such storms
posted by robbyrobs at 1:07 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
With MTG it's "leftists", "antifa", and Jews, and insofar as "the gays" fall into one of those, it's also them.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:10 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 1:10 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
I have relatives barely outside of the evac zone, they are going to stay. Let's hope it weakens to a Cat 2, though this as gwint points out will not save anyone from storm surge.
I know our military is supposed to fight two wars simultaneously, I wonder how many Florida military bases they can rebuild at once (Tyndall AFB is still under construction from Michael damage)
posted by credulous at 1:11 PM on October 7
I know our military is supposed to fight two wars simultaneously, I wonder how many Florida military bases they can rebuild at once (Tyndall AFB is still under construction from Michael damage)
posted by credulous at 1:11 PM on October 7
Credulous, both USCENTCOM and USSOCOM are co-located at MacDill AFB in Tampa.
posted by scolbath at 1:15 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by scolbath at 1:15 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
One of the speakers was a retirement age woman, and she asserted that Everybody wants to live in Florida, and the others agreed with her. No argument, everyone wants to have a retirement property in Florida.
Last year I went to a big Gartner research presentation on the future of education. The crowd was standing room only, but people began to trickle out as it became clear there was nothing interesting going on. When they finally deigned to take questions I asked what they thought of the impact of climate change on higher ed. No presenter had any idea; they actually turned to the intern they brought with them for her thoughts, while she was bustling around behind the scenes.
After I asked one of the big Gartner boys why they didn't have an answer for me. He said: "I'm retiring to Florida in a few years. We bought a property there." So.
posted by doctornemo at 1:16 PM on October 7 [21 favorites]
Last year I went to a big Gartner research presentation on the future of education. The crowd was standing room only, but people began to trickle out as it became clear there was nothing interesting going on. When they finally deigned to take questions I asked what they thought of the impact of climate change on higher ed. No presenter had any idea; they actually turned to the intern they brought with them for her thoughts, while she was bustling around behind the scenes.
After I asked one of the big Gartner boys why they didn't have an answer for me. He said: "I'm retiring to Florida in a few years. We bought a property there." So.
posted by doctornemo at 1:16 PM on October 7 [21 favorites]
Was it DeSantis that wanted to deny Fed aid to a state/region of the country that had experienced a natural disaster?
posted by robbyrobs at 1:17 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 1:17 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
I have family vacationing for a month-plus in the Destin area. I've asked them 2x about their situation, and they said Helene didn't really affect them, and Milton won't either.
Any thoughts on whether they *should* be a little concerned, or even arrange to vacate their rental?
My thoughts with every person, every thing affected. (Can you imagine what these storms are doing to wildlife?)
posted by NorthernLite at 1:18 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
Any thoughts on whether they *should* be a little concerned, or even arrange to vacate their rental?
My thoughts with every person, every thing affected. (Can you imagine what these storms are doing to wildlife?)
posted by NorthernLite at 1:18 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
I'm so sorry, dis_integration. I hope your family there is safe.
posted by doctornemo at 1:19 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
posted by doctornemo at 1:19 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
Boy it sure is a good thing that it's cheap and easy to uproot your entire life and move somewhere else that isn't vulnerable to hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, drought, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, etc.
But aren’t seasonal hurricanes, which regularly impact a large swath of land and humans with high winds and floods more predictably dangerous than the other disasters you mentioned? Maybe with the exception of active volcanos.
posted by waving at 1:21 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
But aren’t seasonal hurricanes, which regularly impact a large swath of land and humans with high winds and floods more predictably dangerous than the other disasters you mentioned? Maybe with the exception of active volcanos.
posted by waving at 1:21 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
"Them" is a Cat 5 hurricane of mis/disinformation and conspiracy all its own - with officials at every level of climate, meteorology, recovery and relief receiving sustained threats and harassment
posted by thecincinnatikid at 1:21 PM on October 7 [13 favorites]
posted by thecincinnatikid at 1:21 PM on October 7 [13 favorites]
Destin will be on the "lee" side of the hurricane passing far to the south and west. There will be some winds and some rain, probably no storm surge, and Thursday Friday should be beautiful days.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:22 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:22 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
NorthernLite: The weather is forecast to be sunny and perfect in Destin for the next 10 days.
posted by credulous at 1:22 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
posted by credulous at 1:22 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
Even the conservative Sarasota Herald Tribune which is backed by developers/car dealers/ entrenched Republicans had a headline recently that the storms are being caused by climate change
posted by robbyrobs at 1:22 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 1:22 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
Just to help people with that -- since northern hemisphere storms circulate counter-clockwise, the worst impact is on the right side of the eye as the storm moves. If you make a fist with your right hand and fold the thumb over the middle of your index finger, your big knuckles are the "punch" of the hurricane's winds and where the storm surge will be greatest. Point your thumb and hand in the direction of movement of the hurricane and you can see what is going to take the heaviest damage.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:26 PM on October 7 [10 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:26 PM on October 7 [10 favorites]
"For the first time ever recorded, October finds three hurricanes spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic. Hot new world"
-Bill McKibben on Twitter/X
posted by doctornemo at 1:44 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
-Bill McKibben on Twitter/X
posted by doctornemo at 1:44 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
I live in Pinellas county and we've had so many near direct hits in my four decades or so of living here. It could easily miss again but that doesn't seem likely this time.
-Every gas station I've seen this afternoon in Tampa and Pinellas is either out of gas or has a line out into the street. In my experience, Floridians tend to hoard and overprepare in situations like this, which is fine.
-Theres still garbage on the curb from houses flooded by the last hurricane waiting to be collected.
-Just got the "evacuate all zones" alert on my phone. I'm in a non-evacuation zone in a house with hurricane glass and plenty of supplies. The most vulnerable part would be the garage door but we've got a brace. So that makes the most vulnerable part a gable end wall by the garage roof. Better to have a totally mansard roof, since that makes it less likely your roof will be ripped off. Most hurricane protection is rated for 150 mph. Hopefully we don't get to test how far beyond that it can hold.
I appreciate the excitement of preparation and the opportunity to face a challenge. No point in being afraid since it won't do anything for you this late in the game. Easy for me since I've got a safe setup. But "hurricane party", where you drink beer and eat the contents of your freezer after the powers gone out to prevent spoilage, can be kind of fun.
posted by Hume at 1:49 PM on October 7 [11 favorites]
-Every gas station I've seen this afternoon in Tampa and Pinellas is either out of gas or has a line out into the street. In my experience, Floridians tend to hoard and overprepare in situations like this, which is fine.
-Theres still garbage on the curb from houses flooded by the last hurricane waiting to be collected.
-Just got the "evacuate all zones" alert on my phone. I'm in a non-evacuation zone in a house with hurricane glass and plenty of supplies. The most vulnerable part would be the garage door but we've got a brace. So that makes the most vulnerable part a gable end wall by the garage roof. Better to have a totally mansard roof, since that makes it less likely your roof will be ripped off. Most hurricane protection is rated for 150 mph. Hopefully we don't get to test how far beyond that it can hold.
I appreciate the excitement of preparation and the opportunity to face a challenge. No point in being afraid since it won't do anything for you this late in the game. Easy for me since I've got a safe setup. But "hurricane party", where you drink beer and eat the contents of your freezer after the powers gone out to prevent spoilage, can be kind of fun.
posted by Hume at 1:49 PM on October 7 [11 favorites]
the Florida mindset
There are 22 million of us in this state including so, so many who are working so hard to try to make it a better place. For the second time in two weeks we're about to suffer a major natural disaster that has surely been exacerbated by the forces so many of us are diligently fighting against, a disaster that is going to absolutely obliterate so many people and pets and livelihoods, and here once again, as has been the case so many times in the past, some people's response is to lump everybody in the state together in to some dirtbag monolith and then blame us for our own suffering. Truly, with every fiber of my being, I urge you to go pound sand you fucking ghouls.
To my fellow Floridians, good luck to you all. This is going to be awful. 5pm NHC drops in a couple of minutes, hopefully it'll offer a little more clarity if nothing else.
posted by saladin at 1:57 PM on October 7 [93 favorites]
There are 22 million of us in this state including so, so many who are working so hard to try to make it a better place. For the second time in two weeks we're about to suffer a major natural disaster that has surely been exacerbated by the forces so many of us are diligently fighting against, a disaster that is going to absolutely obliterate so many people and pets and livelihoods, and here once again, as has been the case so many times in the past, some people's response is to lump everybody in the state together in to some dirtbag monolith and then blame us for our own suffering. Truly, with every fiber of my being, I urge you to go pound sand you fucking ghouls.
To my fellow Floridians, good luck to you all. This is going to be awful. 5pm NHC drops in a couple of minutes, hopefully it'll offer a little more clarity if nothing else.
posted by saladin at 1:57 PM on October 7 [93 favorites]
5 pm update: 180 mph, 905 mb.
This is probably an estimate. The Hurricane Hunters plane will head in sampling the eye about an hour from now.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:05 PM on October 7
This is probably an estimate. The Hurricane Hunters plane will head in sampling the eye about an hour from now.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:05 PM on October 7
I imagine most Floridians already know the site well but in case there's anyone who doesn't, Tropical Tidbits is a supremely useful resource. Breaks all the models down, shows you the averages, the predicted timing, everything. Much more data than the NHC.
posted by saladin at 2:13 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
posted by saladin at 2:13 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
OTOH "Dirtbag Monolith" would be a great name for a punk band.
posted by Greg_Ace at 2:22 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
posted by Greg_Ace at 2:22 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
This is a well-informed lot, but keep in mind: there's no irony in where hurricanes hit. There's no justice.
St. Pete is a wildly, hilariously, fabulously, liberal city, and Milton could just wipe it off the map. Nobody deserves that*
*) Hurricanes are not tornadoes. There are a few Florida residents who deserve a tornado.
posted by MengerSponge at 2:30 PM on October 7 [9 favorites]
St. Pete is a wildly, hilariously, fabulously, liberal city, and Milton could just wipe it off the map. Nobody deserves that*
*) Hurricanes are not tornadoes. There are a few Florida residents who deserve a tornado.
posted by MengerSponge at 2:30 PM on October 7 [9 favorites]
No presenter had any idea; they actually turned to the intern they brought with them for her thoughts, while she was bustling around behind the scenes.
After I asked one of the big Gartner boys why they didn't have an answer for me. He said: "I'm retiring to Florida in a few years. We bought a property there." So.
Yep. Yep, yep, yep. Can confirm. Everybody with property on or near a coast is all, "whaaat?" if you ask them "aren't you concerned that your house is going to wash into the sea at some point in the next ten or twelve years?" If it would supersupersuper suck if X happened, they simply cannot conceive that X could happen. Even if X is in the process of happening, spectacularly and right in their face, every year or two.
My friend inherited her grandparents' beach house on the Atlantic coast. It's a teeny little three-room, one bath single story with jalousie windows and a tiny porch that fits a single aluminum chaise lounge that the two of us would perch on to smoke our cigarettes back when we used to indulge. It looks the way every house in that town once did.
Houses all around have added a story or two and second and third bathrooms and are constantly "improving" their weentzy lots by adding more and more concrete amenities. Next door neighbor in her eighties finally died and her son has moved in. He wants to wall in the upstairs porch the way they walled in the downstairs porch so as to make another bedroom. And he wants to add a pool in what he is calling "the back yard." The back yard is a scrap of sand maybe about seven by twelve feet. My friend said, "Aren't you concerned about A1A eventually encroaching on your yard...?" (Because every Atlantic storm washes out A1A and it has to be rebuilt and then the beach is a couple of feet shorter. Very soon there will be no beach; we will have the Margaritaville version of the PCH. And in some indeterminate period of time, there will not be the row of houses on A1A. And then sometime later there will no longer be this row of houses.)
He affected to have no idea what she was talking about. Of course.
posted by Don Pepino at 2:30 PM on October 7 [10 favorites]
After I asked one of the big Gartner boys why they didn't have an answer for me. He said: "I'm retiring to Florida in a few years. We bought a property there." So.
Yep. Yep, yep, yep. Can confirm. Everybody with property on or near a coast is all, "whaaat?" if you ask them "aren't you concerned that your house is going to wash into the sea at some point in the next ten or twelve years?" If it would supersupersuper suck if X happened, they simply cannot conceive that X could happen. Even if X is in the process of happening, spectacularly and right in their face, every year or two.
My friend inherited her grandparents' beach house on the Atlantic coast. It's a teeny little three-room, one bath single story with jalousie windows and a tiny porch that fits a single aluminum chaise lounge that the two of us would perch on to smoke our cigarettes back when we used to indulge. It looks the way every house in that town once did.
Houses all around have added a story or two and second and third bathrooms and are constantly "improving" their weentzy lots by adding more and more concrete amenities. Next door neighbor in her eighties finally died and her son has moved in. He wants to wall in the upstairs porch the way they walled in the downstairs porch so as to make another bedroom. And he wants to add a pool in what he is calling "the back yard." The back yard is a scrap of sand maybe about seven by twelve feet. My friend said, "Aren't you concerned about A1A eventually encroaching on your yard...?" (Because every Atlantic storm washes out A1A and it has to be rebuilt and then the beach is a couple of feet shorter. Very soon there will be no beach; we will have the Margaritaville version of the PCH. And in some indeterminate period of time, there will not be the row of houses on A1A. And then sometime later there will no longer be this row of houses.)
He affected to have no idea what she was talking about. Of course.
posted by Don Pepino at 2:30 PM on October 7 [10 favorites]
Stay safe, Floridians.
posted by Going To Maine at 2:31 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
posted by Going To Maine at 2:31 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
I keep thinking about how back in the day, my Florida and South Carolina relatives and friends would occasionally evacuate up to my house in Asheville for hurricanes and we would mostly have a pretty good time. Then they would go home and take the plywood off their windows and usually everything was mostly fine. And now there is no Asheville to go to and things are much less likely to be fine.
But aren’t seasonal hurricanes, which regularly impact a large swath of land and humans with high winds and floods more predictably dangerous than the other disasters you mentioned? Well, they didn't used to happen in Asheville! Or when they did, it was not at the scale of what just happened there. So no, forget the predictably dangerous, okay? This is a not so brave new world.
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:31 PM on October 7 [21 favorites]
But aren’t seasonal hurricanes, which regularly impact a large swath of land and humans with high winds and floods more predictably dangerous than the other disasters you mentioned? Well, they didn't used to happen in Asheville! Or when they did, it was not at the scale of what just happened there. So no, forget the predictably dangerous, okay? This is a not so brave new world.
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:31 PM on October 7 [21 favorites]
No presenter had any idea; they actually turned to the intern they brought with them for her thoughts, while she was bustling around behind the scenes.
A quick story about institutional inertia in Florida:
About ten years ago I was a librarian at a public library in Florida. The Library Director came around for her annual meet-n-greet, to pretend she could human like other humans do, and at the end she asked if anyone had any questions. I raised my hand and said I had one, but it was going to seem really big picture. I asked what the library's plan was for climate change. I said that with where we were in Florida, for a while if people were affected by climate change and wanted to move but stay in Florida, they'd move from the coastal areas to our county. I said that this would affect our tax base, probably driving up housing costs, possibly affecting millage and therefore funding, but that it definitely would affect the job market--eventually it would catch up but for a while there would be depressed wages and higher unemployment. I said that all of this would affect both what the public expected from libraries and what the library could afford to provide, and that the situation was much bigger than me and that I'd like to propose a committee tasked with examining the likely effects, and also the sociological and economic effects of an influx of refugees on an area, etc., because an imperfect/incomplete plan is better than no plan at all.
She said that she'd be retired by then.
Obviously this reveals her narcissism, which was truly malignant and breathtaking, but it also exposes the logical fallacy at the heart of much of her thinking: someday she'll be gone; the library will still be there.
Skip ahead ten years and she's still there and now, too, is climate change. And she's locked into her "no plan" course of action because the governor, in his infinite wisdom, decided that it would be a thought crime to have one.
posted by johnofjack at 2:41 PM on October 7 [30 favorites]
A quick story about institutional inertia in Florida:
About ten years ago I was a librarian at a public library in Florida. The Library Director came around for her annual meet-n-greet, to pretend she could human like other humans do, and at the end she asked if anyone had any questions. I raised my hand and said I had one, but it was going to seem really big picture. I asked what the library's plan was for climate change. I said that with where we were in Florida, for a while if people were affected by climate change and wanted to move but stay in Florida, they'd move from the coastal areas to our county. I said that this would affect our tax base, probably driving up housing costs, possibly affecting millage and therefore funding, but that it definitely would affect the job market--eventually it would catch up but for a while there would be depressed wages and higher unemployment. I said that all of this would affect both what the public expected from libraries and what the library could afford to provide, and that the situation was much bigger than me and that I'd like to propose a committee tasked with examining the likely effects, and also the sociological and economic effects of an influx of refugees on an area, etc., because an imperfect/incomplete plan is better than no plan at all.
She said that she'd be retired by then.
Obviously this reveals her narcissism, which was truly malignant and breathtaking, but it also exposes the logical fallacy at the heart of much of her thinking: someday she'll be gone; the library will still be there.
Skip ahead ten years and she's still there and now, too, is climate change. And she's locked into her "no plan" course of action because the governor, in his infinite wisdom, decided that it would be a thought crime to have one.
posted by johnofjack at 2:41 PM on October 7 [30 favorites]
At some point there will be a turn. The number of people migrating to Florida will decline, and the number of people leaving that state will rise.
This shows up in climate fiction a great deal. Cf Extrapolations for one example.
posted by doctornemo at 2:41 PM on October 7
This shows up in climate fiction a great deal. Cf Extrapolations for one example.
posted by doctornemo at 2:41 PM on October 7
What's weird is to contrast the "lalala it will be fine" people with the "moved to NC as a climate change refuge" folks who just got flooded.
I know at least one retiree who pretty much is ok with If a Hurricane Gets Me It's My Time, and maybe at least some other retirees feel the same.
As it happens, my firm has had a really hard time hiring younger engineers in FL or getting them to transfer there. So at least some younger people are thinking about that.
posted by emjaybee at 2:50 PM on October 7 [11 favorites]
I know at least one retiree who pretty much is ok with If a Hurricane Gets Me It's My Time, and maybe at least some other retirees feel the same.
As it happens, my firm has had a really hard time hiring younger engineers in FL or getting them to transfer there. So at least some younger people are thinking about that.
posted by emjaybee at 2:50 PM on October 7 [11 favorites]
Q: But aren’t seasonal hurricanes, which regularly impact a large swath of land and humans with high winds and floods more predictably dangerous than the other disasters you mentioned?
A: Well, they didn't used to happen in Asheville!
Exfuckingzactly! where in hell are we supposed to go? My aunt when we were all on vacation observing Helene busily scouring away at Steinhatchee and Cedar Key says, "Why don't you guys just move out of there?" A day later and she learns that she can't get home to safe, sedate Tryon Estates in North Carolina because the highways are all washed out and they have no power for the foreseeable. You have to get somewhere far away from rivers and coasts: water, IOW. But then: thousand-year drought. Dustbowl II. Towering infernos. Collapse of the power grid. Etc. My beachhouse friend wants to ditch the country entirely, keeps yacking about Costa Rica. I'm like, "Uh, frying pan into the fire much? Did you just not notice the 'Costa' part of the name...?" (And for that matter, what about the "Rica" part of the name? Who has the $$ to just pull stakes and head out?)
She said that she'd be retired by then.
Oh, hollow mirthless laugh, how I sympathize with this sociopathic library director because GDI, I was really hoping to get to skip out on all of this just by being old, but then all the scientists started talking about woops, shit's gonna be happening much faster and soon than we thought, and lo, here it all is. Happening. My mom isn't even going to get a pass.
posted by Don Pepino at 2:57 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
A: Well, they didn't used to happen in Asheville!
Exfuckingzactly! where in hell are we supposed to go? My aunt when we were all on vacation observing Helene busily scouring away at Steinhatchee and Cedar Key says, "Why don't you guys just move out of there?" A day later and she learns that she can't get home to safe, sedate Tryon Estates in North Carolina because the highways are all washed out and they have no power for the foreseeable. You have to get somewhere far away from rivers and coasts: water, IOW. But then: thousand-year drought. Dustbowl II. Towering infernos. Collapse of the power grid. Etc. My beachhouse friend wants to ditch the country entirely, keeps yacking about Costa Rica. I'm like, "Uh, frying pan into the fire much? Did you just not notice the 'Costa' part of the name...?" (And for that matter, what about the "Rica" part of the name? Who has the $$ to just pull stakes and head out?)
She said that she'd be retired by then.
Oh, hollow mirthless laugh, how I sympathize with this sociopathic library director because GDI, I was really hoping to get to skip out on all of this just by being old, but then all the scientists started talking about woops, shit's gonna be happening much faster and soon than we thought, and lo, here it all is. Happening. My mom isn't even going to get a pass.
posted by Don Pepino at 2:57 PM on October 7 [8 favorites]
First, please Florida friends be safe.
Next...
Marjorie Taylor-Green is on Twitter blaming the hurricanes on "them."
When a natural disaster hits a blue state, it's God punishing THEM. When it's a natural disaster hitting a red state, its THEM punishing God-fearing white Christians. Basically THEY are as powerful as God. Insomuch as WE are in fact THEY, you can take a moment to bask in your divine power, I guess.
Anyhow, MTG is awful, but the people claiming weather tracking systems are to blame, or telling people to stay put because there is no hurricane just THEM trying to loot their homes are monsters. If we agree that yelling fire in a crowded theatre is dangerous and unacceptable, we should also agree that yelling "there is no fire, remain seated" in a burning building is equally criminal.
Once again, please stay safe, Floridians. I'm so sorry you're getting hit twice in so short a time.
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:58 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
Next...
Marjorie Taylor-Green is on Twitter blaming the hurricanes on "them."
When a natural disaster hits a blue state, it's God punishing THEM. When it's a natural disaster hitting a red state, its THEM punishing God-fearing white Christians. Basically THEY are as powerful as God. Insomuch as WE are in fact THEY, you can take a moment to bask in your divine power, I guess.
Anyhow, MTG is awful, but the people claiming weather tracking systems are to blame, or telling people to stay put because there is no hurricane just THEM trying to loot their homes are monsters. If we agree that yelling fire in a crowded theatre is dangerous and unacceptable, we should also agree that yelling "there is no fire, remain seated" in a burning building is equally criminal.
Once again, please stay safe, Floridians. I'm so sorry you're getting hit twice in so short a time.
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:58 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
Pretty sure Tampa has not been hit like this since at least 1925. It’s not actually getting directly pummeled by majors all the time. Also as of 5 pm EDT it became the 9th strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time, ahead of Camille and Katrina. It is supposed to hit some shear and weaken a bit, but it’s just going to get bigger at the same time, so not great. And yeah, storm surge is hugely impacted by it passing north of Tampa (big surge) or south (smaller surge).
My SILs family lost their ancestral home in St. Pete during Helene and her dad retreated to his GFs house in Floral City, which is now going to get pummeled by Milton. It sucks.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:02 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
My SILs family lost their ancestral home in St. Pete during Helene and her dad retreated to his GFs house in Floral City, which is now going to get pummeled by Milton. It sucks.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:02 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
I told this story over in the free thread, but the amount of conspiracy theory/disinformation about the hurricanes right now means that people like my parents (who live and have lived in Asheville for more than fifty years and have suffered in the storm's wake) are getting blamed as crisis actors when they fail to confirm stories the right wing are telling.
I have friends in the path of this hurricane. I hope they get out.
posted by thivaia at 3:06 PM on October 7 [27 favorites]
I have friends in the path of this hurricane. I hope they get out.
posted by thivaia at 3:06 PM on October 7 [27 favorites]
NHC website throwing 503s. That’s quite a storm.
posted by seanmpuckett at 3:09 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 3:09 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
St. Pete is a wildly, hilariously, fabulously, liberal city
It is also the home of the Dali museum.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 3:14 PM on October 7 [14 favorites]
It is also the home of the Dali museum.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 3:14 PM on October 7 [14 favorites]
Was it DeSantis that wanted to deny Fed aid to a state/region of the country that had experienced a natural disaster?
That was Trump:
That was Trump:
... Trump initially refused to approve disaster aid for California after deadly wildfires in 2018 because of the state’s Democratic leanings.posted by JoeZydeco at 3:25 PM on October 7 [10 favorites]
But Harvey said Trump changed his mind after Harvey pulled voting results to show him that heavily damaged Orange County, California, had more Trump supporters than the entire state of Iowa.
Here's one Florida hurricane reaction:
To those who plan to stay despite evacuation orders, Attorney General Ashley Moody delivered this stark message:
“You probably need to write your name in permanent marker on your arm so that people know who you are when they get to you afterwards.”
posted by doctornemo at 3:25 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
To those who plan to stay despite evacuation orders, Attorney General Ashley Moody delivered this stark message:
“You probably need to write your name in permanent marker on your arm so that people know who you are when they get to you afterwards.”
posted by doctornemo at 3:25 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
I hope no one gets hurt or killed.
One person says they’ll just put the storm shutters up to ride it out and accept their boat will be lost
Except that they'll still expect insurance to buy them a new boat.
Prediction - long-term, coastal houses will be uninsurable. Instead you'll have fortress-like multi-suite buildings that can withstand annual cat 5 storms or surges, and people rent or lease suites.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:26 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
One person says they’ll just put the storm shutters up to ride it out and accept their boat will be lost
Except that they'll still expect insurance to buy them a new boat.
Prediction - long-term, coastal houses will be uninsurable. Instead you'll have fortress-like multi-suite buildings that can withstand annual cat 5 storms or surges, and people rent or lease suites.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:26 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
Harvey said Trump changed his mind after Harvey pulled voting results to show him that heavily damaged Orange County, California, had more Trump supporters than the entire state of Iowa.
Good thing Harvey didn't tell him about the Electoral College.
posted by box at 3:31 PM on October 7 [9 favorites]
Good thing Harvey didn't tell him about the Electoral College.
posted by box at 3:31 PM on October 7 [9 favorites]
Really worried about my employer's home office in Tampa right now... and the 50% of my coworkers who in some cases just got their power back on last week and are still cleaning up the Helene wreckage.
Especially the one coworker who owns a boat but never learned how to swim... be safe K., I'm VERY worried about you right now girl! ugh.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 3:33 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Especially the one coworker who owns a boat but never learned how to swim... be safe K., I'm VERY worried about you right now girl! ugh.
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 3:33 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Just had dinner last night with our friends who rode out Helene in their Englewood, Florida winter home which is right on the coast south of Tampa/St Pete - they said the 10-hours of high winds/rain were draining and while their house had only minor damage they had neighbors two blocks away with major flooding - and Helene was 100+ miles off the coast drifting north to the Big Bend panhandle area.
If the Tampa-ish prediction is close, Tampa Bay will be completely inundated while Englewood will get the brutal blunt of the southeast quadrant. And an hour ago they just upped the storm surge predictions from 8-12' to 10-15' for that entire stretch - when Tampa is still cleaning up with massive damage from Helene's 6' surge. I know the prognosticators can doom preach, but they were spot fucking on with Helene and now the Cat 5 pushing a days long swell in front, even if diminishing to a 3 on landfall, is exactly what Katrina unleashed on Louisiana/Mississippi.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 3:36 PM on October 7 [5 favorites]
If the Tampa-ish prediction is close, Tampa Bay will be completely inundated while Englewood will get the brutal blunt of the southeast quadrant. And an hour ago they just upped the storm surge predictions from 8-12' to 10-15' for that entire stretch - when Tampa is still cleaning up with massive damage from Helene's 6' surge. I know the prognosticators can doom preach, but they were spot fucking on with Helene and now the Cat 5 pushing a days long swell in front, even if diminishing to a 3 on landfall, is exactly what Katrina unleashed on Louisiana/Mississippi.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 3:36 PM on October 7 [5 favorites]
The writing your details on your arm to help identify your body has been Common advice for a decade at least. Both effective in getting people to evacuate as well as literally being effective for helping to identify your remains.
My thoughts go out to everyone in the storms path. There are places like Cedar Key that really can’t be justified to inhibit, although I understand Kittehs family goes back generations there. I hate to see federal government dollar spent on anything but evacuating people. I think you make a deal with the devil when you live somewhere like that. Similar to my friends dad who has a cabin on the edge of national forest in the west, he fully expects it will but someday, but keeps some family heirlooms and important documents at his office in the city.
But urban Tampa Bay Area is not cedar Key and we are talking about millions of people in built up areas, not a handful of folk who wanted to live on a little spit in the water
posted by CostcoCultist at 3:39 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
My thoughts go out to everyone in the storms path. There are places like Cedar Key that really can’t be justified to inhibit, although I understand Kittehs family goes back generations there. I hate to see federal government dollar spent on anything but evacuating people. I think you make a deal with the devil when you live somewhere like that. Similar to my friends dad who has a cabin on the edge of national forest in the west, he fully expects it will but someday, but keeps some family heirlooms and important documents at his office in the city.
But urban Tampa Bay Area is not cedar Key and we are talking about millions of people in built up areas, not a handful of folk who wanted to live on a little spit in the water
posted by CostcoCultist at 3:39 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
Fact checking Rubio and DeSantis voting against Hurricane Sandy aid: mostly true
posted by Orange Dinosaur Slide at 3:44 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
posted by Orange Dinosaur Slide at 3:44 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
To those who plan to stay despite evacuation orders, Attorney General Ashley Moody delivered this stark message:
“You probably need to write your name in permanent marker on your arm so that people know who you are when they get to you afterwards.”
This exact sequence of words gets trotted out every storm. I heard it before Helene hit and I heard it before Katrina, when every person who allowed it to flop out of their stank mouth knew full well they were saying it to thousands and thousands of people in Mississippi and Louisiana who could not evacuate, many of whom desperately wanted to. Here is the correct sequence that the pols should follow when they are faced with this situation: First make it possible for people to leave, even if they do not have a car. Then shoot your evil mouths off about how people who stay should write their ssns on their arms.
Oh, but, what could they be expected to do in a situation like this that they've only known was inevitable for the past hundred years or so? How could Ashley Moody possibly help? I dunno; maybe deploy the state cars and the cop cars and the red coaches and the greyhounds and the school buses and the giant buses they use to ship football players all around the southeast? Since their idiot predecessors tore out the railroads that we could've used to haul everybody out and replaced them with the interstates and packed the continent with the coalrollingcarbonblasting cars that caused this shit in the first place.
posted by Don Pepino at 3:53 PM on October 7 [32 favorites]
“You probably need to write your name in permanent marker on your arm so that people know who you are when they get to you afterwards.”
This exact sequence of words gets trotted out every storm. I heard it before Helene hit and I heard it before Katrina, when every person who allowed it to flop out of their stank mouth knew full well they were saying it to thousands and thousands of people in Mississippi and Louisiana who could not evacuate, many of whom desperately wanted to. Here is the correct sequence that the pols should follow when they are faced with this situation: First make it possible for people to leave, even if they do not have a car. Then shoot your evil mouths off about how people who stay should write their ssns on their arms.
Oh, but, what could they be expected to do in a situation like this that they've only known was inevitable for the past hundred years or so? How could Ashley Moody possibly help? I dunno; maybe deploy the state cars and the cop cars and the red coaches and the greyhounds and the school buses and the giant buses they use to ship football players all around the southeast? Since their idiot predecessors tore out the railroads that we could've used to haul everybody out and replaced them with the interstates and packed the continent with the coalrollingcarbonblasting cars that caused this shit in the first place.
posted by Don Pepino at 3:53 PM on October 7 [32 favorites]
South Florida meteorologist John Morales breaks down over Milton’s dangerous intensification. And he says straight out that climate change is causing it. Almost a certainty that he’ll be getting death threats from the MAGAs.
posted by holborne at 4:02 PM on October 7 [22 favorites]
posted by holborne at 4:02 PM on October 7 [22 favorites]
A counterpoint to the “they control the weather “ right wing paranoia is…
“Are you fucking insane?”
What is happening to the world? I feel like I’m losing my mind.
I spent all morning texting my kid pleading for them to get out now and drive north. They’re on the east coast but currently forecast to be just south of the eye. The forecasts keep revising this thing upward- it may still be a cat 3 by the time it gets to them. They are boarding up and loaded up with generator, supplies, etc. but I told them all that was useless if the roof comes off. I’m pretty apprehensive about this.
posted by Devils Rancher at 4:46 PM on October 7 [12 favorites]
“Are you fucking insane?”
What is happening to the world? I feel like I’m losing my mind.
I spent all morning texting my kid pleading for them to get out now and drive north. They’re on the east coast but currently forecast to be just south of the eye. The forecasts keep revising this thing upward- it may still be a cat 3 by the time it gets to them. They are boarding up and loaded up with generator, supplies, etc. but I told them all that was useless if the roof comes off. I’m pretty apprehensive about this.
posted by Devils Rancher at 4:46 PM on October 7 [12 favorites]
180 mph 897 mb
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:59 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:59 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
Y'all, I've been thru hurricanes as I'm sure a lot of you also have. Can we not politicize this? Like at all? This is terrifying. The speed that this storm intensified... the direction it's going... the temperature of the Gulf right now. I know it's climate change, I know that's intrinsically political but like, for real, let's just not. People are scared. People are gonna die. My heart goes out to everyone in the path of this monster. Every. One. Of. Them.
posted by danapiper at 5:17 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
posted by danapiper at 5:17 PM on October 7 [15 favorites]
The storm inundation map for Tampa - St. Pete is bad. Punta Gorda. Port Charlotte. Venice. I hope those people get the fuck out. I really do. These are not rich cities. Millions of people just getting by. Christ.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:24 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:24 PM on October 7 [6 favorites]
Note that iPhone 14 and later have Emergency SOS via satellite -- consider sharing this article with your peeps in the area.
If you also have iOS 18 installed you can use Messages via satellite.
posted by credulous at 5:28 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
If you also have iOS 18 installed you can use Messages via satellite.
posted by credulous at 5:28 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
Rash: How, exactly does one deal with a major hurricane (except by evacuation)?
I was told we would send nukes
posted by tzikeh at 5:43 PM on October 7
I was told we would send nukes
posted by tzikeh at 5:43 PM on October 7
Sharpies, man. Move'em out the way with Sharpies. Just point on the map where you want'em to go. "Nope. Milton's gonna fuck up Cuba HARD. Now watch this drive."
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:47 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:47 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
Can we not politicize this? Like at all?
Everything is political. Every part of why this is happening (unchecked climate change) and what's being done about this (forecasting organizations, preparation efforts, relief funds all being stymied by regressive Republicans). Every single facet of this is explicitly affected by the politics of the last century and the apocalyptic century to come.
posted by FatherDagon at 5:52 PM on October 7 [57 favorites]
Everything is political. Every part of why this is happening (unchecked climate change) and what's being done about this (forecasting organizations, preparation efforts, relief funds all being stymied by regressive Republicans). Every single facet of this is explicitly affected by the politics of the last century and the apocalyptic century to come.
posted by FatherDagon at 5:52 PM on October 7 [57 favorites]
Unverified social media claim: Florida residents on the Gulf Coast who are evacuating to the North on I-75 are finding NO FUEL. Nearly all gas stations wiped out. Vehicles will soon be stalled on the interstate, blocking evacuations. Already bumper-to-bumper traffic heading North.
The GasBuddy app should have information on which stations still have gas.
posted by credulous at 5:54 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
The GasBuddy app should have information on which stations still have gas.
posted by credulous at 5:54 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Everything is political. Every part of why this is happening (unchecked climate change) and what's being done about this (forecasting organizations, preparation efforts, relief funds all being stymied by regressive Republicans). Every single facet of this is explicitly affected by the politics of the last century and the apocalyptic century to come.
I acknowledge that. I don't think that means people deserve to die.
posted by danapiper at 5:59 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
I acknowledge that. I don't think that means people deserve to die.
posted by danapiper at 5:59 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Internet says that the roads going south are clear and have gas for now. I'd consider a late night drive to Miami or Fort Liquordale if it were me.
posted by credulous at 6:13 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by credulous at 6:13 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Emergency approval
FCC lets Starlink provide service to cell phones in areas hit by hurricane
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/10/fcc-lets-starlink-provide-service-to-cell-phones-in-areas-hit-by-hurricane/
posted by aleph at 6:32 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
FCC lets Starlink provide service to cell phones in areas hit by hurricane
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/10/fcc-lets-starlink-provide-service-to-cell-phones-in-areas-hit-by-hurricane/
posted by aleph at 6:32 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
What efforts are being made to evac people who can't drive out, and to help people find shelter elsewhere? (If not government, perhaps nonprofit or other entities.)
posted by NorthernLite at 6:36 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
posted by NorthernLite at 6:36 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
how can you say ft liquordale if you don't also say mijami
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:39 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:39 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
I acknowledge that. I don't think that means people deserve to die.
Not one single person here has said that anyone deserves to die.
posted by holborne at 6:45 PM on October 7 [29 favorites]
Not one single person here has said that anyone deserves to die.
posted by holborne at 6:45 PM on October 7 [29 favorites]
Thinking about my dad, a highway engineer who spent a couple of months in Florida after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. We sure thought that one was a big deal, though it hardly rates a mention these days.
posted by McBearclaw at 6:47 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
posted by McBearclaw at 6:47 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
Climate scientist and TV meteorologist John Morales (mentioned earlier in the thread) wrote "Hurricane Helene isn’t an outlier. It’s a harbinger of the future".
An absolutely crushing article (with short video embedded) about what it was like during Helene (and the stories of the people who died ) in the Tampa Bay Times. Even the early hours of Helene are terrifying:
An absolutely crushing article (with short video embedded) about what it was like during Helene (and the stories of the people who died ) in the Tampa Bay Times. Even the early hours of Helene are terrifying:
In Madeira Beach, Fire Chief Clint Belk watched from the safety of the beach town’s fire station, 13-feet above sea level, as water levels climbed 3 feet within an hour. Helene was not his first rodeo, but his concern was growing. “This one might be a little different,” he thought.posted by spamandkimchi at 6:55 PM on October 7 [7 favorites]
As water flowed through the streets like rivers, Belk dispatched all 10 of the small town’s firefighters. Plowing through in the agency’s high-water vehicle, first responders plucked families from rooftops and helped a woman clinging to a street sign to avoid being swept away.
I was living in Miramar when Andrew razed Homestead, we were about 40 miles north. We heard the "freight trains" of the wind outside for hours. It was scary, but the house was single story concrete block, double stuccoed, 1:12 roof with 2" thick concrete tile on top and elastomeric coating, and I expect it to survive the heat death of the universe. The sum total damage we got was a tree fell onto the edge of the roof; it cracked a tile. The power was out for a week; since it was August we bailed out to the inlaws up in Stuart. A friend I met later at another job told me he was in the Marine reserves that were called up for Andrew. There was some upsetting shit going on in rural Dade county after Andrew, and they helped settle things down. Which I guess goes to show that it's not just the wind and the rain and the storm surge that will get you, it'll also be people who want what you have whether or not you have enough to share.
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:00 PM on October 7 [9 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:00 PM on October 7 [9 favorites]
I lived through Andrew and Maria which is the main reason I've made hurricanes the subject of several of my posts here.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:01 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:01 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
Also this fact has stuck in my brain ever since I helped with tsunami & general disaster preparedness.
Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard.
Or for those on a sensible metric system, one cubic meter of water weighs 1,000 kg.
I thought talking in terms of cubic feet was even more helpful in conceptualizing why even "minor" storm surge or flash flooding is so damn destructive.
A cubic foot of water weights over 60 pounds.
Yes, 10 foot storm surge is terrifying, but even 1 foot of fast moving flood waters can erode highways and sweep away people in a flash.
Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard.
Or for those on a sensible metric system, one cubic meter of water weighs 1,000 kg.
I thought talking in terms of cubic feet was even more helpful in conceptualizing why even "minor" storm surge or flash flooding is so damn destructive.
A cubic foot of water weights over 60 pounds.
Yes, 10 foot storm surge is terrifying, but even 1 foot of fast moving flood waters can erode highways and sweep away people in a flash.
A mere 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult. It takes just 12 inches of rushing water to carry away most cars and just 2 feet of rushing water can carry away SUVs and trucks. It is NEVER safe to drive or walk into flood waters.posted by spamandkimchi at 7:08 PM on October 7 [30 favorites]
The related links to this thread that are showing below are almost all about Milton, the author of Paradise Lost. There is some irony in that.
posted by Jane the Brown at 7:12 PM on October 7 [13 favorites]
posted by Jane the Brown at 7:12 PM on October 7 [13 favorites]
My college boyfriend had moved to Brooklyn and was teaching high school by the time Andrew came through. He drove to Miami to be with his mother and sister. They spent the night in the bathtub with a mattress over them while the roof blew off. Then the ensuing weeks in decimated Miami fending for food and water amid the mosquitoes. My friend with the beach house worked in a New Orleans group home and evacuated with the residents before Katrina hit. They were shuttled from camp to camp, some of them run by Baptists and Pentecostals and you name it from places like Oklahoma. The residents were black and poor with various disabilities and addictions. She has Stories about how they were treated.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:15 PM on October 7 [17 favorites]
posted by Don Pepino at 7:15 PM on October 7 [17 favorites]
At some point there will be a turn. The number of people migrating to Florida will decline, and the number of people leaving that state will rise.
My entire immediate family got out. Not specifically due to fear of hurricanes, but I have always found both the political and meteorological climate there unfriendly in general (and both have gotten worse since then) and have not missed it very much, aside from a few very specific places.
But the population of Manatee County increased by 76% since I left. Florida in general, 50%. The US in general, 24%. So we are not exactly following the trend by getting out of there.
posted by Foosnark at 7:50 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
My entire immediate family got out. Not specifically due to fear of hurricanes, but I have always found both the political and meteorological climate there unfriendly in general (and both have gotten worse since then) and have not missed it very much, aside from a few very specific places.
But the population of Manatee County increased by 76% since I left. Florida in general, 50%. The US in general, 24%. So we are not exactly following the trend by getting out of there.
posted by Foosnark at 7:50 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
>some people's response is to lump everybody in the state together in to some dirtbag monolith and then blame us for our own suffering
Tonight Mrs Jabo and I went to a neighborhood postcard writing event for various Democratic causes and met a woman from the area that Milton is most likely to hit. She had suffered through Hurricane Ian and despite having family in the area, got in her car and drove all the way to Santa Fe, New Mexico with her cat to stay here with a friend.
She described how bad Ian and Helene were and how she just couldn’t go through another. She talked about how the insurance companies basically blew her off when she wanted to get compensated. Finally, she talked about the level of intimidation that she and liberal friends felt living in Florida under Gov. Desantis.
She was not anxious to talk about any of this and glad to have something else to do besides worry about it. We have family in Miami and are always worried about these events. Nobody should ever be gleeful about how FL deserves this. This shit is happening EVERYWHERE folks.
posted by jabo at 8:01 PM on October 7 [16 favorites]
Tonight Mrs Jabo and I went to a neighborhood postcard writing event for various Democratic causes and met a woman from the area that Milton is most likely to hit. She had suffered through Hurricane Ian and despite having family in the area, got in her car and drove all the way to Santa Fe, New Mexico with her cat to stay here with a friend.
She described how bad Ian and Helene were and how she just couldn’t go through another. She talked about how the insurance companies basically blew her off when she wanted to get compensated. Finally, she talked about the level of intimidation that she and liberal friends felt living in Florida under Gov. Desantis.
She was not anxious to talk about any of this and glad to have something else to do besides worry about it. We have family in Miami and are always worried about these events. Nobody should ever be gleeful about how FL deserves this. This shit is happening EVERYWHERE folks.
posted by jabo at 8:01 PM on October 7 [16 favorites]
To be fair, Ron DeSantis is trying to scare people away from Florida.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:03 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:03 PM on October 7 [2 favorites]
One bizarre thing about this repeat disaster is all the busted & water-ruined stuff people put out onto the street last week . . . the stuff that hasn't been picked up yet will become projectiles where the hurricane hits.
posted by torokunai at 8:27 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 8:27 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
In the not too distant future, in a satellite photo, Florida will appear to be a landing strip. What global warming?
posted by jim in austin at 8:56 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
posted by jim in austin at 8:56 PM on October 7 [1 favorite]
What in the actual fuck is wrong with people.
Yeah, what the fuck is wrong with people?
I've spent the last twenty years of my professional life trying to convince people that climate change is a real and immediate threat, that we have the ability to reduce emissions to avoid this kind of disaster, and that it's cheaper to reduce emissions than it is to dally until our cities are washed away.
We could have done something about this. We didn't.
What's wrong is that climate change has become yet another political football. There are sufficient people in Florida voting for politicians who keep sticking their heads in the sand, no matter how wet that sand might be from sea level rise or storm surges.
It's not just that various politicians are stalling action to reduce emissions. They are actively trying to ignore the threat of climate change and deliberately hiding that threat.
Florida Gov. DeSantis signs bill that deletes climate change from state law
DeSantis’s Florida Approves Climate-Denial Videos in Schools
And yes, it's not just Florida. Round my way, we've had local pressure groups spend a decade stopping the local council from including sea level rise risk on pre-purchase property reports.
And no, no-one should be celebrating the damage that's going to happen when global warming becomes local catastrophe. People are going to die. Houses will be destroyed. Towns may never recover.
This is just the start of it. What the fuck is wrong with people?
posted by happyinmotion at 9:06 PM on October 7 [28 favorites]
Yeah, what the fuck is wrong with people?
I've spent the last twenty years of my professional life trying to convince people that climate change is a real and immediate threat, that we have the ability to reduce emissions to avoid this kind of disaster, and that it's cheaper to reduce emissions than it is to dally until our cities are washed away.
We could have done something about this. We didn't.
What's wrong is that climate change has become yet another political football. There are sufficient people in Florida voting for politicians who keep sticking their heads in the sand, no matter how wet that sand might be from sea level rise or storm surges.
It's not just that various politicians are stalling action to reduce emissions. They are actively trying to ignore the threat of climate change and deliberately hiding that threat.
Florida Gov. DeSantis signs bill that deletes climate change from state law
DeSantis’s Florida Approves Climate-Denial Videos in Schools
And yes, it's not just Florida. Round my way, we've had local pressure groups spend a decade stopping the local council from including sea level rise risk on pre-purchase property reports.
And no, no-one should be celebrating the damage that's going to happen when global warming becomes local catastrophe. People are going to die. Houses will be destroyed. Towns may never recover.
This is just the start of it. What the fuck is wrong with people?
posted by happyinmotion at 9:06 PM on October 7 [28 favorites]
If we agree that yelling fire in a crowded theatre is dangerous and unacceptable, we should also agree that yelling "there is no fire, remain seated" in a burning building is equally criminal.
Thank you Joey Michaels, that’s a very apt statement.
posted by Devils Rancher at 9:07 PM on October 7 [13 favorites]
Thank you Joey Michaels, that’s a very apt statement.
posted by Devils Rancher at 9:07 PM on October 7 [13 favorites]
Hi all. Been doing hurricane prep much of the day, as the spaghetti model strands for this SOB basically cover my home county (Sarasota).
We're still trying to decide if we stay or run. Many complications, the biggest being the need to care for my wife's parents, who are elderly, frail, one suffering from dementia and tremendous anxiety, the other with COPD, really incapable of traveling any serious distance. We have lined up a memory care/nursing unit for them - but their slot opens next month. Because this is Florida, I know three other families like ours, feeling pinned down by the need to care for elderly parents.
So the idea was to hunker everyone down in our house, where the inlaws would be comfortable. The house is close to being a fortress - Cat 5-rated windows and doors, new roof at code, cinder-block construction. Though there is a big tree behind our house, and we knew we should remove it, but the red-shouldered hawks make it a home every year, so it stayed, and this will probably be its last few days. Hoping it does not fall on our roof.
We are in evacuation zone B - not the barrier island or immediate coast, but the next zone in. They've ordered evacuation for us, but not zone C, and we're literally adjacent to that, and at a higher elevation, oddly. The latest storm surge numbers, though, would put the water at or slightly up on our house. But... the NWS "inundation zones model" shows us probably OK. So ...
We keep waiting for the storm track to tell us something, because this is far from our first rodeo, and the tracks always shift... until this time, apparently. A northward trend toward Tampa seems to have reversed and put it back on our doorstep.
We'll look at the updates at 5 AM and at 11 AM and make the decision. We have a friend who can give us shelter farther inland -- but also right where infamous hurricane dude Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel was tonight. We also have family with a hotel room booked on the other coast - but we know from past experience that if we leave town we may not be able to get back in for weeks. And it's a too-long drive for the inlaws.
Apologies. This is way too long, but maybe you get the idea of the conflicting needs and data and advice and choices we face here. And it's the sort of post you writes when you're too stressed to sleep. Will keep you updated if I can.
posted by martin q blank at 9:48 PM on October 7 [99 favorites]
We're still trying to decide if we stay or run. Many complications, the biggest being the need to care for my wife's parents, who are elderly, frail, one suffering from dementia and tremendous anxiety, the other with COPD, really incapable of traveling any serious distance. We have lined up a memory care/nursing unit for them - but their slot opens next month. Because this is Florida, I know three other families like ours, feeling pinned down by the need to care for elderly parents.
So the idea was to hunker everyone down in our house, where the inlaws would be comfortable. The house is close to being a fortress - Cat 5-rated windows and doors, new roof at code, cinder-block construction. Though there is a big tree behind our house, and we knew we should remove it, but the red-shouldered hawks make it a home every year, so it stayed, and this will probably be its last few days. Hoping it does not fall on our roof.
We are in evacuation zone B - not the barrier island or immediate coast, but the next zone in. They've ordered evacuation for us, but not zone C, and we're literally adjacent to that, and at a higher elevation, oddly. The latest storm surge numbers, though, would put the water at or slightly up on our house. But... the NWS "inundation zones model" shows us probably OK. So ...
We keep waiting for the storm track to tell us something, because this is far from our first rodeo, and the tracks always shift... until this time, apparently. A northward trend toward Tampa seems to have reversed and put it back on our doorstep.
We'll look at the updates at 5 AM and at 11 AM and make the decision. We have a friend who can give us shelter farther inland -- but also right where infamous hurricane dude Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel was tonight. We also have family with a hotel room booked on the other coast - but we know from past experience that if we leave town we may not be able to get back in for weeks. And it's a too-long drive for the inlaws.
Apologies. This is way too long, but maybe you get the idea of the conflicting needs and data and advice and choices we face here. And it's the sort of post you writes when you're too stressed to sleep. Will keep you updated if I can.
posted by martin q blank at 9:48 PM on October 7 [99 favorites]
My dad and stepmom live in Bradenton. I've been estranged from them for many years, but my sister still talks to Dad and cares about him, and she's freaking out. Last she's heard from them (which was this morning), they are staying. Dad's got a lot of health problems from a lifetime smoking, and is undergoing cancer treatment for something in his neck. I wonder if they're hoping to get wiped out. Depending on how big the resulting mess is, even if they don't get wiped out in the storm, his cancer treatments might be seriously impaired by the omnishambles.
posted by notoriety public at 9:59 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 9:59 PM on October 7 [3 favorites]
First, I & all here posting...I can say we are hoping the best for all Hurricane Milton may affect from today forward.
one's weird because it's a curveball coming from the west
From recollection - Hurricane Milton came from the southeast of The Atlantic Ocean into The Gulf of Mexico. Then ricocheted off of coast Mexico back towards Florida.
posted by thomcatspike at 10:17 PM on October 7
one's weird because it's a curveball coming from the west
From recollection - Hurricane Milton came from the southeast of The Atlantic Ocean into The Gulf of Mexico. Then ricocheted off of coast Mexico back towards Florida.
posted by thomcatspike at 10:17 PM on October 7
What efforts are being made to evac people who can't drive out?
That's what I've been wondering. I mean, even in Florida, not everyone has their own car or can rely on a friend or relative's vehicle, right?
posted by Paul Slade at 11:31 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
That's what I've been wondering. I mean, even in Florida, not everyone has their own car or can rely on a friend or relative's vehicle, right?
posted by Paul Slade at 11:31 PM on October 7 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Quick note: in the same way that we have guidelines against wishing death / violence on someone (even if they are a "bad guy"), please avoid commentary that seems to take satisfaction or pleasure in the suffering or death of people via climate change events (or other sorts of heavily politicized issues) because of the area (e.g., red states) or because some of the affected people are on the other side of the political divide. That said, it's still not okay to tell other people in the thread "fuck you." Please flag or contact us instead. Thanks.
posted by taz (staff) at 12:35 AM on October 8 [18 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 12:35 AM on October 8 [18 favorites]
From recollection - Hurricane Milton came from the southeast of The Atlantic Ocean into The Gulf of Mexico.
Not as a tropical cyclone, as far as I remember. On the NOAA Hurricane map, it just sort of appeared as a disturbance off the coast of Mexico and rapidly intensified. A lot of the disturbances appearing off the coast of Africa seem to be developing into tropical cyclones very early and then staying in the open water, drifting north. Which seems good for the East Coast of the US, if it weren’t for the storms consolidating in the Gulf and Caribbean.
As someone who lives in southern New England, every summer and fall means checking hurricane activity regularly. I think this is the first time I’ve seen 3 cyclones on the map at two different times. I don’t know how anyone can imagine that the situation isn’t getting worse in frequency and strength. I guess by not looking.
The other thing that’s alarming is that the hurricanes out of the Gulf/Caribbean seem to be developing much faster, letting them get to more damaging strengths before crashing into the coasts of wherever they land or cross over.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:01 AM on October 8 [6 favorites]
Not as a tropical cyclone, as far as I remember. On the NOAA Hurricane map, it just sort of appeared as a disturbance off the coast of Mexico and rapidly intensified. A lot of the disturbances appearing off the coast of Africa seem to be developing into tropical cyclones very early and then staying in the open water, drifting north. Which seems good for the East Coast of the US, if it weren’t for the storms consolidating in the Gulf and Caribbean.
As someone who lives in southern New England, every summer and fall means checking hurricane activity regularly. I think this is the first time I’ve seen 3 cyclones on the map at two different times. I don’t know how anyone can imagine that the situation isn’t getting worse in frequency and strength. I guess by not looking.
The other thing that’s alarming is that the hurricanes out of the Gulf/Caribbean seem to be developing much faster, letting them get to more damaging strengths before crashing into the coasts of wherever they land or cross over.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:01 AM on October 8 [6 favorites]
What efforts are being made to evac people who can't drive out?
That's what I've been wondering.
Well, wonder no more. We have evidence in the form of Katrina of what efforts will be made for large minority populations in cities in hurricane bullseyes. Efforts include: A. telling people to write on themselves with sharpies. B. Oh, wait. There is no B.
posted by Don Pepino at 4:45 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
That's what I've been wondering.
Well, wonder no more. We have evidence in the form of Katrina of what efforts will be made for large minority populations in cities in hurricane bullseyes. Efforts include: A. telling people to write on themselves with sharpies. B. Oh, wait. There is no B.
posted by Don Pepino at 4:45 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
I saw something about Klan Mom Marjorie Taylor Green going on about how these multiple hurricanes were a product of weather control. You would think that if that were true, they would be repeatedly flattening Mar El Lago rather than Tallahatchie.
posted by y2karl at 4:54 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 4:54 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
Here is the correct sequence that the pols should follow when they are faced with this situation: First make it possible for people to leave, even if they do not have a car. Then shoot your evil mouths off about how people who stay should write their ssns on their arms.
There are many things I hate about my state, but making it relatively easy for people to evacuate to shelters where people won't drown is one of the things I actually like. There are rural areas where you are left to your own devices, but in the coastal cities, at least, and given sufficient warning, there are buses and they use them.
You're not going to get transported across the state for free, but you will get taken to a shelter designed to survive worst case storms at an elevation that won't flood and stocked with food and water with a backup generator to at least keep some lights on.
Personally, I'm just glad I'm in Southeast Florida for this one. And not in an area prone to freshwater flooding. It's rained a lot in the area the past few days, so that is a continuing concern for many people around here even though Milton itself is not likely to bring much impact here beyond a few inches more of rain and breezy conditions as it comes ashore.
One of my sisters in law lives up in Orlando and while they are not likely to flood from the biblical amounts of rain, the wind is expected to get bad enough to cause widespread power outages, so I'm a bit worried for her. Not nearly as much as any idiots who decide to shelter in place in areas below 20 feet on the west coast, though.
posted by wierdo at 5:08 AM on October 8 [10 favorites]
There are many things I hate about my state, but making it relatively easy for people to evacuate to shelters where people won't drown is one of the things I actually like. There are rural areas where you are left to your own devices, but in the coastal cities, at least, and given sufficient warning, there are buses and they use them.
You're not going to get transported across the state for free, but you will get taken to a shelter designed to survive worst case storms at an elevation that won't flood and stocked with food and water with a backup generator to at least keep some lights on.
Personally, I'm just glad I'm in Southeast Florida for this one. And not in an area prone to freshwater flooding. It's rained a lot in the area the past few days, so that is a continuing concern for many people around here even though Milton itself is not likely to bring much impact here beyond a few inches more of rain and breezy conditions as it comes ashore.
One of my sisters in law lives up in Orlando and while they are not likely to flood from the biblical amounts of rain, the wind is expected to get bad enough to cause widespread power outages, so I'm a bit worried for her. Not nearly as much as any idiots who decide to shelter in place in areas below 20 feet on the west coast, though.
posted by wierdo at 5:08 AM on October 8 [10 favorites]
Sometimes you really see a side of liberals you don't want to when they exhort everyone should move out of Florida/Louisiana/Texas etc without remembering that not everyone can and is able to. The casualties of these catastrophic weather events are often the poorest of Americans, but the US has long seen the poor as expendable.
posted by Kitteh at 5:10 AM on October 8 [21 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 5:10 AM on October 8 [21 favorites]
Not as a tropical cyclone, as far as I remember. On the NOAA Hurricane map, it just sort of appeared as a disturbance off the coast of Mexico and rapidly intensified.
The disturbance that became Milton crossed Mexico from the Pacific. It was not strong enough there to be a named storm, so we don't get the freakish occurrence of a Pacific name in the Atlantic basin.
posted by wierdo at 5:17 AM on October 8 [7 favorites]
The disturbance that became Milton crossed Mexico from the Pacific. It was not strong enough there to be a named storm, so we don't get the freakish occurrence of a Pacific name in the Atlantic basin.
posted by wierdo at 5:17 AM on October 8 [7 favorites]
> What efforts are being made to evac people who can't drive out?
this is the united states of america. it’s everyone for themselves. there’s nothing. i am curious what the scientologists are doing. many of them who work for the sea org live in scientology owned former motels along ft harrison which is just a stones throw from clearwater bay. the “church” controls their every move including transportation. i hope they’ve evacuated them, because the sea org is about to live under the sea.
posted by dis_integration at 5:28 AM on October 8 [6 favorites]
this is the united states of america. it’s everyone for themselves. there’s nothing. i am curious what the scientologists are doing. many of them who work for the sea org live in scientology owned former motels along ft harrison which is just a stones throw from clearwater bay. the “church” controls their every move including transportation. i hope they’ve evacuated them, because the sea org is about to live under the sea.
posted by dis_integration at 5:28 AM on October 8 [6 favorites]
The disturbance that became Milton crossed Mexico from the Pacific.
Yikes! I did not see that! Thanks for the clarification.
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:53 AM on October 8
Yikes! I did not see that! Thanks for the clarification.
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:53 AM on October 8
My wife's aunt and uncle live in the Bradenton/Sarasota area. They are supposed to be sheltering at a local elementary school starting sometime today.
posted by mmascolino at 5:59 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
posted by mmascolino at 5:59 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
From a FAU survey on climate change"
"Overall, most respondents said that climate change sparked their concern for the well-being of future generations (68%). But less than half of all respondents (48%) said they would be willing to pay $10 a month to strengthen Florida’s infrastructure to weather hazards."
I am curious how this questions was phrased in the survey. My conservative uncle always said he would be happy to pay more fees that went to things he could see like firefighter but didn't want more money going to government waste.
I have seen some rumbling on twitter about why the government doesn't use trains of more busses to get people out of there. I have to imagine that kind of long distance evaluation would be logistically challenging as well as expensive.
I am glad to hear there are some local evacuation options, and I hope these are well supplied. I have pretty vidid memories of the Superdome in New Orleans
posted by CostcoCultist at 6:08 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
"Overall, most respondents said that climate change sparked their concern for the well-being of future generations (68%). But less than half of all respondents (48%) said they would be willing to pay $10 a month to strengthen Florida’s infrastructure to weather hazards."
I am curious how this questions was phrased in the survey. My conservative uncle always said he would be happy to pay more fees that went to things he could see like firefighter but didn't want more money going to government waste.
I have seen some rumbling on twitter about why the government doesn't use trains of more busses to get people out of there. I have to imagine that kind of long distance evaluation would be logistically challenging as well as expensive.
I am glad to hear there are some local evacuation options, and I hope these are well supplied. I have pretty vidid memories of the Superdome in New Orleans
posted by CostcoCultist at 6:08 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
Reading this thread from Texas (and away from the coast; I live in Dallas now though I grew up in Houston) is giving me flashbacks to hurricanes bearing down on my hometown. Fingers crossed for all in Florida.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 6:25 AM on October 8
posted by gentlyepigrams at 6:25 AM on October 8
"The disturbance then interacted with the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and a stationary front"
I'm interested in the question of whether Milton originated in the Pacific. Wikipedia as of earlier today is stating that a remnant of a Pacific storm interacted with a forming storm in the Caribbean Sea, with the combined storms evolving into Milton (my interpretation of Wikipedia text).
Whatever the balance of contribution to it is it's still a wild thought that a Pacific Ocean Storm storm is contributing to a hurricane hitting Florida.
posted by the antecedent of that pronoun at 6:28 AM on October 8 [1 favorite]
I'm interested in the question of whether Milton originated in the Pacific. Wikipedia as of earlier today is stating that a remnant of a Pacific storm interacted with a forming storm in the Caribbean Sea, with the combined storms evolving into Milton (my interpretation of Wikipedia text).
Whatever the balance of contribution to it is it's still a wild thought that a Pacific Ocean Storm storm is contributing to a hurricane hitting Florida.
posted by the antecedent of that pronoun at 6:28 AM on October 8 [1 favorite]
Fine. My comment got deleted. Deservedly so.
There are a LOT of people here who need to take a deep look at themselves based on their comments here.
For all likely to be devastated by this storm I hope you are as safe as you can be.
posted by chasles at 6:33 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
There are a LOT of people here who need to take a deep look at themselves based on their comments here.
For all likely to be devastated by this storm I hope you are as safe as you can be.
posted by chasles at 6:33 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
Sometimes you really see a side of liberals you don't want to when they exhort everyone should move out of Florida/Louisiana/Texas etc without remembering that not everyone can and is able to.
I have to say, I’m not seeing a lot of this in this thread. There are some comments using “Florida” to mean “Florida’s Politicians In Power,” but I’m mostly seeing concern for people on the ground. I mean, I get not being able to get out, and I get not wanting to leave no matter what.
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:47 AM on October 8 [10 favorites]
I have to say, I’m not seeing a lot of this in this thread. There are some comments using “Florida” to mean “Florida’s Politicians In Power,” but I’m mostly seeing concern for people on the ground. I mean, I get not being able to get out, and I get not wanting to leave no matter what.
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:47 AM on October 8 [10 favorites]
Sometimes you really see a side of liberals you don't want to when they exhort everyone should move out of Florida/Louisiana/Texas etc without remembering that not everyone can and is able to.
I think most of the frustration comes from the net migration to famously vulnerable areas. It's not that people aren't leaving, it's that these places have become popular places to move to, which can send anyone who pays attention to the climate risks a bit insane.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:53 AM on October 8 [13 favorites]
I think most of the frustration comes from the net migration to famously vulnerable areas. It's not that people aren't leaving, it's that these places have become popular places to move to, which can send anyone who pays attention to the climate risks a bit insane.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:53 AM on October 8 [13 favorites]
Latest report from The Eyewall (7:15am)
Most recent "spaghetti" model view
posted by gwint at 6:54 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
Most recent "spaghetti" model view
posted by gwint at 6:54 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
This is one of the best images illustrating an eyewall replacement cycle that I've ever seen. When a hurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle it weakens somewhat but expands in size.
Between that, some sheer, and the indirect interaction with the Yucatan peninsula Milton has slowed down to 145 mph and 929 mb. (Still awful numbers and likely to rise again).
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:57 AM on October 8 [1 favorite]
Between that, some sheer, and the indirect interaction with the Yucatan peninsula Milton has slowed down to 145 mph and 929 mb. (Still awful numbers and likely to rise again).
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:57 AM on October 8 [1 favorite]
There will likely be a second peak as a category 5 and some slowing before it comes to the Florida shore, likely at a mid-category 4.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:23 AM on October 8
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:23 AM on October 8
My beach house philosophy is the reverse of the three little pigs.
A little stick house that you run away from every fall and expect to have to rebuild cyclically is one thing. Trent Lott's house--a multimillion dollar redoubt that you expect somebody to insure and that you want fortified against every possible exigency--is quite another completely idiotic thing.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:28 AM on October 8 [6 favorites]
A little stick house that you run away from every fall and expect to have to rebuild cyclically is one thing. Trent Lott's house--a multimillion dollar redoubt that you expect somebody to insure and that you want fortified against every possible exigency--is quite another completely idiotic thing.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:28 AM on October 8 [6 favorites]
My company's FL office is closed and in a mandatory evac zone. Don't know where everybody who works there lives but I'm worried about them.
posted by emjaybee at 7:33 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 7:33 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
net migration to famously vulnerable areas
posted by box at 7:33 AM on October 8 [4 favorites]
"According to L2, a nonpartisan political data vendor, people who moved to Florida since January 2021 have registered as Republicans by a margin of more than two to one, 49 percent to 22 percent."(Gift link to an article about polling in the NYT by Nate Cohn, the other polling guy named Nate. This probably isn't the thread to talk about either polling or the Times, but I thought it was an interesting footnote to BungaDunga's comment.)
posted by box at 7:33 AM on October 8 [4 favorites]
And today I read Zillow is now adding climate risk to all home for sale listings.
Each for-sale listing on Zillow now displays First Street risk scores for flood, fire, wind, air and heat. They also show those same risk percentages estimated 15 years and 30 years into the future.
More than 80% of buyers now consider climate risk when purchasing a home, according to a survey by Zillow. Respondents ranked flood risk as their highest concern, followed by fire.
Just 4% of North Carolina homes are in a FEMA flood zone. But climate risk firm First Street, which incorporates the effects of climate change into its property risk scores, shows nearly 12% of homes in the state are actually at flood risk.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 7:35 AM on October 8 [11 favorites]
Each for-sale listing on Zillow now displays First Street risk scores for flood, fire, wind, air and heat. They also show those same risk percentages estimated 15 years and 30 years into the future.
More than 80% of buyers now consider climate risk when purchasing a home, according to a survey by Zillow. Respondents ranked flood risk as their highest concern, followed by fire.
Just 4% of North Carolina homes are in a FEMA flood zone. But climate risk firm First Street, which incorporates the effects of climate change into its property risk scores, shows nearly 12% of homes in the state are actually at flood risk.
posted by thecincinnatikid at 7:35 AM on October 8 [11 favorites]
Uber is offering free rides to hurricane shelters.
posted by Archipelago at 8:27 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
posted by Archipelago at 8:27 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
Please tell me Uber is compensating their drivers for this.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:29 AM on October 8 [9 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:29 AM on October 8 [9 favorites]
Interestingly, hurricanes do help cool the earth, by transporting surface heat into the upper atmosphere where some radiates into space. Also they move heat deeper into the oceans.
As a result, hurricanes should mean fewer failed crops in places like Mexico or even Africa, meaning less starvation globally. It's simply what they do though, nothing ethical or actionable, beyond cutting CO2 and methane emissions.
Hurricane Kirk has declined from category 4 to an "extra-tropical storm", but it'll still do damage when it hits Europe week.
Any good damage estimates from Helene yet? I've read numbers between $30 billion and $200 billion, but regardless flood insurance appears uncommon inland in Georgia and Appalachia, so the insurance bil should be way lower than the actual damages, and much damages gets "paid" by not rebuilding.
All the meteorologists seem impressed by how quickly Milton grew, but the eye remains still like 24 hours away from Tampa. As waters warm, I suppose future hurricans could form closer, making them a bigger surprise, but maybe they southern gulf would always be some much warmer that they'd still start there.
Just fyi, CENTCOM is located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, not sure if that'll impact anything.
posted by jeffburdges at 8:58 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
As a result, hurricanes should mean fewer failed crops in places like Mexico or even Africa, meaning less starvation globally. It's simply what they do though, nothing ethical or actionable, beyond cutting CO2 and methane emissions.
Hurricane Kirk has declined from category 4 to an "extra-tropical storm", but it'll still do damage when it hits Europe week.
Any good damage estimates from Helene yet? I've read numbers between $30 billion and $200 billion, but regardless flood insurance appears uncommon inland in Georgia and Appalachia, so the insurance bil should be way lower than the actual damages, and much damages gets "paid" by not rebuilding.
All the meteorologists seem impressed by how quickly Milton grew, but the eye remains still like 24 hours away from Tampa. As waters warm, I suppose future hurricans could form closer, making them a bigger surprise, but maybe they southern gulf would always be some much warmer that they'd still start there.
Just fyi, CENTCOM is located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, not sure if that'll impact anything.
posted by jeffburdges at 8:58 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
I kept seeing stories about how the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area was X number of years ago and yet I remember seeing videos about storm surges there last year. It was Hurricane Idalia which was initially predicted to hit mid-coast but veered off to the north and made landfall in the Big Bend region about 160 miles north. Still TB received a 3' storm surge. Plenty of neighborhoods flooded.
A YouTube channel by Jonathan Petramala documents Hurricane Helene's devastation of Cedar Key Florida (north of TB but still 75 miles south of where Helene made landfall) and the storm surge was about 10'. At around 7 minutes into this video, he interviews a real estate agent who describes what rebuilding is like for older houses in St Petersburg--ranch homes built from cinder blocks in the 60s--who've been flooded out twice recently are up against. Basically unless they want to spend a lot of money raising the foundation and bringing it up to code, they sell for the lot value and then a developer comes along and builds a house on 20' pilings and maybe that's good for another 50 years.
In an different video he goes around the historic Cedar Key downtown established in the 1800s. At around the 8:35 mark, he shows shops and bars flooded and it made me think: You can rebuild a house, put it on high stilts and hope it's safe for another 50 years, but can businesses operate like that? Offices maybe but a convenience stores? gas stations? tourist souvenir shops, antique stores that depend on foot traffic? Are people honestly going to be climbing up and down stairs to do errands every day? I could go on about unsustainable outlooks but meanwhile there's a hurricane bearing down on Florida again.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:22 AM on October 8 [4 favorites]
A YouTube channel by Jonathan Petramala documents Hurricane Helene's devastation of Cedar Key Florida (north of TB but still 75 miles south of where Helene made landfall) and the storm surge was about 10'. At around 7 minutes into this video, he interviews a real estate agent who describes what rebuilding is like for older houses in St Petersburg--ranch homes built from cinder blocks in the 60s--who've been flooded out twice recently are up against. Basically unless they want to spend a lot of money raising the foundation and bringing it up to code, they sell for the lot value and then a developer comes along and builds a house on 20' pilings and maybe that's good for another 50 years.
In an different video he goes around the historic Cedar Key downtown established in the 1800s. At around the 8:35 mark, he shows shops and bars flooded and it made me think: You can rebuild a house, put it on high stilts and hope it's safe for another 50 years, but can businesses operate like that? Offices maybe but a convenience stores? gas stations? tourist souvenir shops, antique stores that depend on foot traffic? Are people honestly going to be climbing up and down stairs to do errands every day? I could go on about unsustainable outlooks but meanwhile there's a hurricane bearing down on Florida again.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:22 AM on October 8 [4 favorites]
They should put the buildings on 20’ hydraulic jacks like in car shops
posted by torokunai at 10:48 AM on October 8 [1 favorite]
posted by torokunai at 10:48 AM on October 8 [1 favorite]
And then build walkways between the buildings in the air. /derail
posted by aleph at 10:56 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
posted by aleph at 10:56 AM on October 8 [2 favorites]
They trucked in dirt and lifted every building in Galveston TX (a smallish island, similar size to Cedar Key) 15 ft into the air in 1902. Now there is a giant seawall. and everything sits on top of that.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:01 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:01 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
And put rails on the walkways. /rerail
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:03 AM on October 8 [11 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:03 AM on October 8 [11 favorites]
I think the Dutch have experemented lots with floating houses, torokunai, including tiny cardboard ones called Wikkelboats. Amphibious land houses exists too, which float when the land floods. All these assume a farily orderly climate, not a category 5 hurricane.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:07 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
posted by jeffburdges at 11:07 AM on October 8 [3 favorites]
Helene destroyed my hometown, I don't want climate change stories of false hope by Anna Jane Joyner
12-month running average for atmospheric CO₂ during 1959-2024 matches a quadratic trendline with R² = 0.9995.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:20 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
12-month running average for atmospheric CO₂ during 1959-2024 matches a quadratic trendline with R² = 0.9995.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:20 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
Jeffburdges: could you explain what that graph means? Is it a trend line drawn threw the actual points? (In that case, it doesn't sound particularly meaningful.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:24 AM on October 8
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:24 AM on October 8
Is it news because it's quadratic? Power functions aren't (usually) good for this stuff.
posted by aleph at 11:38 AM on October 8
posted by aleph at 11:38 AM on October 8
What efforts are being made to evac people who can't drive out?
this is the united states of america. it’s everyone for themselves. there’s nothing.
As wierdo's post explains, that is false.
More detail from the Tampa Bay Times: You still have time to evacuate, Tampa Bay. Here’s how.
Not that a comment here is going to make much of a difference, but more generally, accurate information is a crucial part of disaster management.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:41 AM on October 8 [28 favorites]
this is the united states of america. it’s everyone for themselves. there’s nothing.
As wierdo's post explains, that is false.
More detail from the Tampa Bay Times: You still have time to evacuate, Tampa Bay. Here’s how.
Not that a comment here is going to make much of a difference, but more generally, accurate information is a crucial part of disaster management.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:41 AM on October 8 [28 favorites]
Yes, I'd think "trendline" means Eliot Jacobson solved for a,b,c so that x^2 + b x + c minimizes R^2, not proper statistics, but only meant to critisize "hopium".
posted by jeffburdges at 11:47 AM on October 8
posted by jeffburdges at 11:47 AM on October 8
Honest question from someone who's never even lived near an ocean...
On the NHC site, there's a disturbance brewing off the eastern coast of FL, which thankfully looks like it will be moving up and away from the state.
But, have two hurricanes from opposite sides ever formed and struck FL at the same time? If not, is that the sort of thing that might possibly happen, or would the opposing forces when the winds hit each other cancel out?
I did try to google the question in various forms, but understandably 95% of the results right now are Milton related.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 11:50 AM on October 8
On the NHC site, there's a disturbance brewing off the eastern coast of FL, which thankfully looks like it will be moving up and away from the state.
But, have two hurricanes from opposite sides ever formed and struck FL at the same time? If not, is that the sort of thing that might possibly happen, or would the opposing forces when the winds hit each other cancel out?
I did try to google the question in various forms, but understandably 95% of the results right now are Milton related.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 11:50 AM on October 8
I think the Dutch have experemented lots with floating houses, torokunai, including tiny cardboard ones called Wikkelboats. Amphibious land houses exists too, which float when the land floods. All these assume a farily orderly climate, not a category 5 hurricane.
Much easier when you have a barrier island called Britain protecting you.
posted by ocschwar at 11:57 AM on October 8 [5 favorites]
s.p.o. the circulation around the low/disturbance will probably shove milton a little more southerly (e.g. east across the state) than it would track ordinarily (north-east across the "big bend" and up the us coast) which is great news for NC which really doesn't need another hurricane's worth of weather right now.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:57 AM on October 8
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:57 AM on October 8
Two hurricanes cannot combine. A more accurate description is that they would tear each other apart. Far enough away from each other and one can steer one another, the Fujiwhara effect.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:03 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:03 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard.
Or for those on a sensible metric system, one cubic meter of water weighs 1,000 kg.
Waaait.... Isn't a cubic meter just a cube with each side being one meter in length?
I feel pretty sure I could drag a sturdy container of water that's 1 meter cubed! Am I missing something?
How can that weigh 1000 kgs? 2000 lbs? That's the same weight as a SmartCar.
posted by nouvelle-personne at 12:24 PM on October 8
Or for those on a sensible metric system, one cubic meter of water weighs 1,000 kg.
Waaait.... Isn't a cubic meter just a cube with each side being one meter in length?
I feel pretty sure I could drag a sturdy container of water that's 1 meter cubed! Am I missing something?
How can that weigh 1000 kgs? 2000 lbs? That's the same weight as a SmartCar.
posted by nouvelle-personne at 12:24 PM on October 8
At what point does the Florida mindset suddenly shift and the idea that it’s climate change arises out of the depths of their subconscious?
At the same point that the people in the short story "The Lottery" drop their stones.
Keep in mind that huge numbers of them are trapped, with sunk costs they cannot retrieve, so their only rational option is optimism and denial. Who do you think would buy property in a hurricane zone now, or would cling to it if they had the ability to divest themself from it? Only a victim of an extensive campaign of misinformation orchestrated to keep property values from sinking. You know who still buys retirement properties in Florida? The same people who are the primary target of telephone scammers - old, with savings, and not sharp enough and well informed enough to see through a too-good-to-be-true fraud.
posted by Jane the Brown at 12:24 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
At the same point that the people in the short story "The Lottery" drop their stones.
Keep in mind that huge numbers of them are trapped, with sunk costs they cannot retrieve, so their only rational option is optimism and denial. Who do you think would buy property in a hurricane zone now, or would cling to it if they had the ability to divest themself from it? Only a victim of an extensive campaign of misinformation orchestrated to keep property values from sinking. You know who still buys retirement properties in Florida? The same people who are the primary target of telephone scammers - old, with savings, and not sharp enough and well informed enough to see through a too-good-to-be-true fraud.
posted by Jane the Brown at 12:24 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
How can that weigh 1000 kgs? 2000 lbs? That's the same weight as a SmartCar.
That car is mostly air inside. The metric system defines 1kg = 1l of water = 10x10x10cm = 0.001 cubic meters. Heavy, dense stuff.
posted by migurski at 12:29 PM on October 8 [5 favorites]
That car is mostly air inside. The metric system defines 1kg = 1l of water = 10x10x10cm = 0.001 cubic meters. Heavy, dense stuff.
posted by migurski at 12:29 PM on October 8 [5 favorites]
1 cubic meter equals 1000 liters.
1 liter of water weighs 1 kilogram.
So 1000 liters weighs 1000 kilograms or 2200 pounds
posted by yyz at 12:33 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
1 liter of water weighs 1 kilogram.
So 1000 liters weighs 1000 kilograms or 2200 pounds
posted by yyz at 12:33 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
This pair of maps shows the dramatic difference in storm surge for Tampa bay depending on whether the storm path is just a few miles (like five miles) further south.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:35 PM on October 8 [4 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:35 PM on October 8 [4 favorites]
nouvelle-personne, I know, I also was surprised at first how much water weighs!
But then I thought about how my family used to buy 40 lbs (18 kg) sacks of rice and 1 liter of rice weighs around 800 grams. And those sacks, volume dimensions, are ~17 inches wide by 30 inches tall and maybe when laying flat on the ground, 3.5 inches deep? And that's (1530 cubic inches) still less volume than a cubic foot (1728 cubic inches) and of course there are small pockets of air in between the rice grains. I am not certain if I did the arithmetic correctly, but thinking about a cubic foot of water even weighing 40 lbs and how quickly I would be knocked off my feet if someone chucked a 40 lb sack of anything at my legs...
posted by spamandkimchi at 12:51 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
But then I thought about how my family used to buy 40 lbs (18 kg) sacks of rice and 1 liter of rice weighs around 800 grams. And those sacks, volume dimensions, are ~17 inches wide by 30 inches tall and maybe when laying flat on the ground, 3.5 inches deep? And that's (1530 cubic inches) still less volume than a cubic foot (1728 cubic inches) and of course there are small pockets of air in between the rice grains. I am not certain if I did the arithmetic correctly, but thinking about a cubic foot of water even weighing 40 lbs and how quickly I would be knocked off my feet if someone chucked a 40 lb sack of anything at my legs...
posted by spamandkimchi at 12:51 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
I feel pretty sure I could drag a sturdy container of water that's 1 meter cubed!
Either you don't have an accurate sense of the density of water, or you're just very strong!
posted by inexorably_forward at 12:58 PM on October 8 [14 favorites]
Either you don't have an accurate sense of the density of water, or you're just very strong!
posted by inexorably_forward at 12:58 PM on October 8 [14 favorites]
The meter was defined by 10,000,000 meters from the equator to the north pole. The gram was defined as how much cubic centimeter of water weighed.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:07 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:07 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
And put rails on the walkways. /rerail
Or a monorail! /monorail
posted by wenestvedt at 1:12 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
Or a monorail! /monorail
posted by wenestvedt at 1:12 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
The Seattle Underground exists because they raised the “street level” by almost 20 feet to avoid the original swampland conditions of the area.
posted by funkaspuck at 1:15 PM on October 8 [4 favorites]
posted by funkaspuck at 1:15 PM on October 8 [4 favorites]
Waffle House Index, closing all restaurants in west central FL north of Cape Coral.
posted by spamandkimchi at 1:18 PM on October 8 [9 favorites]
posted by spamandkimchi at 1:18 PM on October 8 [9 favorites]
Americans living out of their cars must spike after hurricane season, just in time for Xmas. Florida SUV dealers should really adopt hurricane themed marketing like "Big enough to take all your stuff when you're evacuated" and "You can live in it if your family gets sick of hosting you when your evacuated". Ironically, gassoline shortages have hampered evacuations in a few cities.
Islamists who want to harm the US could just move to Florida and blow up well selected infrastructure during evacuations for the next category 5 hurricane. It's negligible damage in theory, since a competent governor would just send school busses for people, but under DeSantis' everyone-for-themselves plan just a few disabled bridges could dwarf 9/11.
Climate deniers now have AI help making images for weather manipulation or climate minimization or desensitization
Whatever Happened to “Net-Zero”? by Kate Aronoff
posted by jeffburdges at 1:26 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
Islamists who want to harm the US could just move to Florida and blow up well selected infrastructure during evacuations for the next category 5 hurricane. It's negligible damage in theory, since a competent governor would just send school busses for people, but under DeSantis' everyone-for-themselves plan just a few disabled bridges could dwarf 9/11.
Climate deniers now have AI help making images for weather manipulation or climate minimization or desensitization
Whatever Happened to “Net-Zero”? by Kate Aronoff
posted by jeffburdges at 1:26 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
USA measures: A cubic meter is 264 gallons. (that sounds like way too many gallons, doesn't it? Scaling things up in three dimensions increases the volume so fast.)
A gallon of water is 8 1/3 pounds. So yeah, over 2000 pounds for the cubic meter.
5 gallon buckets of paint are over 40 pounds, and it holds about 53 buckets.
posted by jjj606 at 1:27 PM on October 8 [5 favorites]
A gallon of water is 8 1/3 pounds. So yeah, over 2000 pounds for the cubic meter.
5 gallon buckets of paint are over 40 pounds, and it holds about 53 buckets.
posted by jjj606 at 1:27 PM on October 8 [5 favorites]
I kept seeing stories about how the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area was X number of years ago and yet I remember seeing videos about storm surges there last year.Tampa Bay hasn’t had a “direct hit” from a hurricane in over a hundred years. Apparently a “direct hit” means being within the radius of maximum winds on the left side of the cyclone’s track, or within double that radius on the right side of the track. However, the effects of a hurricane can extend far (sometimes hundreds of miles) beyond the small area that is directly hit.
posted by mbrubeck at 1:50 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
Islamists who want to harm the US could just move to Florida and blow up well selected infrastructure during evacuations for the next category 5 hurricane.
It's domestic Right-wing terrorists that obsess about this particular scenario, I'm afraid.
I'll also just throw out my usual faith-based suggestion -- put the governor and legislature in small boats and send them out as a sacrifice to appease the storm gods. We haven't really given old-time religion a chance yet....
posted by GenjiandProust at 1:59 PM on October 8 [30 favorites]
It's domestic Right-wing terrorists that obsess about this particular scenario, I'm afraid.
I'll also just throw out my usual faith-based suggestion -- put the governor and legislature in small boats and send them out as a sacrifice to appease the storm gods. We haven't really given old-time religion a chance yet....
posted by GenjiandProust at 1:59 PM on October 8 [30 favorites]
Keeping an eye on this not just for historical reasons, but my cousin and his wife live in St. Pete. Their house was majorly flooded with Helene so it's currently cleared out as they have to do a ton of repairs and mitigation. But they (and their dog) were safe!
Now they're like, "Well, here we go again -- at least we're not worried about the house since there's not much of it left that wouldn't need fixing, anyway."
My cousin is a reporter so he's temporarily relocated to Orlando to continue working (he'll probably be reporting "in the field" on this storm). His wife is a flight nurse and is hunkering down in what is hopefully a safe place near St Pete -- she can't evacuate much further because she'll be needed to work as soon as it's safe to fly again.
posted by paisley sheep at 2:04 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
Now they're like, "Well, here we go again -- at least we're not worried about the house since there's not much of it left that wouldn't need fixing, anyway."
My cousin is a reporter so he's temporarily relocated to Orlando to continue working (he'll probably be reporting "in the field" on this storm). His wife is a flight nurse and is hunkering down in what is hopefully a safe place near St Pete -- she can't evacuate much further because she'll be needed to work as soon as it's safe to fly again.
posted by paisley sheep at 2:04 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
Thankfully, many areas of St. Petersburg are well above even worst case monster eastern Pacific typhoon levels of storm surge. Not that that means anything when it comes to wind, but structures compliant with the building code that has been in effect for over 20 years now should survive category 3 winds with relatively minor damage and should protect occupants from serious injury to much higher wind speeds.
If your only risk is wind, you've got little to worry about in newish construction in Florida. It's the aftermath that really sucks ass. No utilities for weeks, completely fucked distribution making it hard to get basic supplies, no work because your job got blown out washed away, etc. But outside of surge and flood zones, the (immediate) risk to life is pretty minimal. While I never want anyone to be impacted by hurricanes, I'm always happier for humanity as a whole when Florida takes the hit since we are by far the best prepared for it, in the US at least.
Plus the terrain is not conducive to landslides and fast moving torrents of water. Where it isn't flat the slope is so gentle that it's hard for water to collect in a way that it gets moving fast enough to just wash a person away like happens up in the mountains. Stuff gets destroyed, but stuff is just stuff. It's the people who matter.
posted by wierdo at 2:42 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
If your only risk is wind, you've got little to worry about in newish construction in Florida. It's the aftermath that really sucks ass. No utilities for weeks, completely fucked distribution making it hard to get basic supplies, no work because your job got blown out washed away, etc. But outside of surge and flood zones, the (immediate) risk to life is pretty minimal. While I never want anyone to be impacted by hurricanes, I'm always happier for humanity as a whole when Florida takes the hit since we are by far the best prepared for it, in the US at least.
Plus the terrain is not conducive to landslides and fast moving torrents of water. Where it isn't flat the slope is so gentle that it's hard for water to collect in a way that it gets moving fast enough to just wash a person away like happens up in the mountains. Stuff gets destroyed, but stuff is just stuff. It's the people who matter.
posted by wierdo at 2:42 PM on October 8 [8 favorites]
> I kept seeing stories about how the last major hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area was X number of years ago and yet I remember seeing videos about storm surges there last year.
The area has seen some hurricanes over the years, and gets some flooding from them and tropical storms, but they've always had a pretty minor impact. Idalia was considered bad in 2023, and it was pretty minor. Basically nobody alive there remembers a hurricane causing major damage. My mom's house, which is near a major inlet from tampa bay and Zone A for evacuation, has never been flooded from a storm since my grandfather built it in 1964, and the worst hurricane damage was some roof damage when a tree branch fell on it during Hurricane Charley. Flooding from Helene just 2 weeks ago was the worst the area has seen in living memory, but there was very little wind damage from Helene.
People in the area jokingly like to say the area is protected by a force field, or an ancient spell, or the Tocobagan burial mounds in Phillipe park, etc. It drives me nuts. But then, I hope the storm doesn't hit direct, even though it will just confirm this idea that Tampa/Pinellas is somehow immune to major storms.
posted by dis_integration at 2:49 PM on October 8 [6 favorites]
The area has seen some hurricanes over the years, and gets some flooding from them and tropical storms, but they've always had a pretty minor impact. Idalia was considered bad in 2023, and it was pretty minor. Basically nobody alive there remembers a hurricane causing major damage. My mom's house, which is near a major inlet from tampa bay and Zone A for evacuation, has never been flooded from a storm since my grandfather built it in 1964, and the worst hurricane damage was some roof damage when a tree branch fell on it during Hurricane Charley. Flooding from Helene just 2 weeks ago was the worst the area has seen in living memory, but there was very little wind damage from Helene.
People in the area jokingly like to say the area is protected by a force field, or an ancient spell, or the Tocobagan burial mounds in Phillipe park, etc. It drives me nuts. But then, I hope the storm doesn't hit direct, even though it will just confirm this idea that Tampa/Pinellas is somehow immune to major storms.
posted by dis_integration at 2:49 PM on October 8 [6 favorites]
Also on the bright side, if Google Maps' traffic view is to be believed, it's eerily quiet on Florida's west coast now. Given the reports of traffic jams yesterday, I can only hope that means the people who needed to evacuate are well on their way to their destination and the people who are staying have mostly finished their storm prep.
posted by wierdo at 2:49 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 2:49 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
What happens if a hurricane smashes Tampa?
(Matt Stoller's BIG newsletter, usually about monopolies, but in this case about worst-case scenarios, recovery, and parallels to Katrina and the covid response)
posted by box at 3:03 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
(Matt Stoller's BIG newsletter, usually about monopolies, but in this case about worst-case scenarios, recovery, and parallels to Katrina and the covid response)
posted by box at 3:03 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
Five o'clock update: Milton has strengthened back up to 165 mph and 905 mb. Center of cone is now directed at Sarasota, a little south of Tampa. Some heavy wind shear to the north may help weaken Milton over the next day.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:14 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:14 PM on October 8 [2 favorites]
Exfuckingzactly! where in hell are we supposed to go?
You are supposed to move to Louisiana and help us organize against Exxon.
posted by eustatic at 6:11 PM on October 8 [6 favorites]
You are supposed to move to Louisiana and help us organize against Exxon.
posted by eustatic at 6:11 PM on October 8 [6 favorites]
People in the area jokingly like to say the area is protected by a force field
That's completely ridiculous.
The force field is in Cape Canaveral around KSC.
posted by credulous at 7:28 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
That's completely ridiculous.
The force field is in Cape Canaveral around KSC.
posted by credulous at 7:28 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
Here are some resources from your federal and state and county governments. you can spread these links to conservative friends, they work for all citizens. If you are stuck in a blue state, i suppose the communication may be less effective, but no less useful. It's just your vote that doesn't matter.
Emergency Response Management Application for Gulf of Mexico
Weather layers --live updates from NHC
Oil Spill Risk sources--basically surge into the East Bay hits two power plants and most of the oil import stations in the region.
Tampa Bay is the "working coast," and so there's more critical infrastructure there, bad for the Bay to have another Piney Point, also bad for the people and bad for the Plants. Entergy Michoud took 7 months to rebuild after Katrina --that was over 20 ft of water, but 16ft would likely hurt the two TECO plants.
There's also an Ammonia tank, somewhere. There's a Sulphuric Acid tank. I know there's a CF Industries plant. The evacuation radius for a busted Ammonia tank plume is generally 2.8 miles, at least in Louisiana. God Bless the people in Conyers dealing with Biolab right now, we don't want that in Tampa. I think the Port of Tampa also has a chlorine facility. those can be bad after the surge. One guess on what demographic of citizens lives near the Port and these hazards.
NGS storm imagery
NGS Storm Imagery https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/
Watch this space for NOAA overflights of coastline change. If you know someone's address in a coastal area, you can send them a picture of their house while they are evacuated. The number one reason not to evacuate a killer storm is that you are worried about your house. But NGS has you covered, and send your friend a picture of their house a couple days, or a week later, good or bad, while they are evacuated.
(you know the real estate fleets are taking LIDAR, everything, after these storms, so it's good to have a public option)
Historic First -- NGS, the coastal survey team, was tasked to Asheville for Helene, but their Beechcraft has been committed to two flights a day for more than a week now, and they have been surveying the "coastal" changes in Toe River.
god bless these angel feds.
FEMA Check
another good thing to share with your friends today is to start applying for their FEMA check
https://www.disasterassistance.gov/
because everything is moving to Login.gov, and you may as well spend an hour in the car confirming your email and setting up the now-required two-factor authentication.
FEMA has not released the eligible counties for Individual Assistance (that happens afterward), but FL Local Governments have been sending FEMA the bill since October 5th, so it's likely charges back to October 5th will be included in the Individual Assistance declaration, which, I agree, Biden should announce on TV, the "mourning but generous dad" is his best role
Other Stuff
and the CERA map of storm surge --NHC predictions are (wisely) very general, these LSU and UT Galveston alums drill down into the NHC updates and produce a surge model
https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
--Surge communication is hard, y'all. The CERA model is precise, but extremely variable. Watching CERA will teach you why the NHC does not like to change the prediction too much, even though they will always be conservative in their advisories, and that is what leads to the public always saying "oh it turned away". It's because, even if you have the power to produce a precise surge estimate, it's highly variable to the point of frustration. Remember the surge predictions for Irma? They were nuts, and then the storm wave tripped on its own feet...so weird. anyway.
NHC doesn't want to constantly freak you out with the details, they know it will turn people off to the warnings. But CERA is cool if you are planning mutual aid and are obsessively checking info updates anyhow, and their hindcast of the max surge is always a useful product.
Florida stuff
The state has a decent disaster dashboard, so you don't have to listen to the mewling fascist on tv. the main page lists evacuations by county, although few counties have full area evacuations.
to understand evacuations, Florida has a very specific geography for it, unlike Louisiana where we live in the ocean and its 60 miles to upland. In Florida, you can evac 10 miles and your changes of being crushed and entombed in a sand dune, never to be found again, those odds lower dramatically.
You can look up a county disaster page, and get good info that will also likely be posted to facebook, but without the anti-semitism. Here's the one for Pinellas.
it's 2024, and county governments are crowd sourcing DRT damage reports for the FEMA application for Individual Assistance, here's the one for Pinellas, so you can find the website for your uncle's county and text it to him after he's there snapping photos of the tree that hit the garage, and Pinellas can use that photo right away to get money released from Uncle Sam.--although it's going to be the more distal and rural counties that will need this kind of citizen sourced DRT information, FEMA will be on Pinellas.
Free Evac Options for Pinellas H-borough Pasco, etc, although it is late now
1 800 729 3413, phones open 7am-7pm
Use Uber code MILTONRELIEF to receive free Uber ride to a shelter. Uber will also likely bill Uncle Sam in the 51 counties(!) in the emergency declaration
Just a note that Polk and Orange Counties are not under evac orders, just flash flood warnings. The flash floods in Florida are not the dangerous sand plumes that happen in the mountains (thanks, Mountain Top Removal), but... park on the second floor of the deck, probably.
what shelters are open
https://www.floridadisaster.org/shelter-status/
text messages for your county to receive info directly to celphone, while you are evacuated or not
NOAA is in Lakeland, and not even all their planes have left LAL
Life will suck in Polk County, just east of Hillsborough (Tampa) but it's like having to hang out in barracks for a week, vs shitting your pants in Pinellas, being deafened by the roar of the wind, and watching street signs fly through the air, and water cover everything in that muddy sand that smells of dead animals
17 shelters open in Polk
“It is a bare necessity, meaning we don’t have blankets and pillows, things like that. If you come to any one of our 17 shelters, you’ll need to bring those items for yourself. Hygiene items you need to bring, as well. We do provide three meals a day,” said Principal Tom Patton.
[PS who pays for those meals and shelters, it's FEMA send all meal complaints to Mike Johnson]
Something to watch, i think, for those of us prepping to go in after the winds die, are power outages in Hillsborough, Orange and Polk Counties, as a measure
Hillsborough on poweroutage.us
teco power east Hillsborough county
polk county lakeland power outage map
aaaannd hopefully these resources are good online things to share with your people on site, or off site. for god's sake, don't check them obsessively, some of us are paid to do that.
just kidding about the voting. just do it. bring friends. USA.
posted by eustatic at 7:58 PM on October 8 [47 favorites]
Emergency Response Management Application for Gulf of Mexico
Weather layers --live updates from NHC
Oil Spill Risk sources--basically surge into the East Bay hits two power plants and most of the oil import stations in the region.
Tampa Bay is the "working coast," and so there's more critical infrastructure there, bad for the Bay to have another Piney Point, also bad for the people and bad for the Plants. Entergy Michoud took 7 months to rebuild after Katrina --that was over 20 ft of water, but 16ft would likely hurt the two TECO plants.
There's also an Ammonia tank, somewhere. There's a Sulphuric Acid tank. I know there's a CF Industries plant. The evacuation radius for a busted Ammonia tank plume is generally 2.8 miles, at least in Louisiana. God Bless the people in Conyers dealing with Biolab right now, we don't want that in Tampa. I think the Port of Tampa also has a chlorine facility. those can be bad after the surge. One guess on what demographic of citizens lives near the Port and these hazards.
NGS storm imagery
NGS Storm Imagery https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/
Watch this space for NOAA overflights of coastline change. If you know someone's address in a coastal area, you can send them a picture of their house while they are evacuated. The number one reason not to evacuate a killer storm is that you are worried about your house. But NGS has you covered, and send your friend a picture of their house a couple days, or a week later, good or bad, while they are evacuated.
(you know the real estate fleets are taking LIDAR, everything, after these storms, so it's good to have a public option)
Historic First -- NGS, the coastal survey team, was tasked to Asheville for Helene, but their Beechcraft has been committed to two flights a day for more than a week now, and they have been surveying the "coastal" changes in Toe River.
god bless these angel feds.
FEMA Check
another good thing to share with your friends today is to start applying for their FEMA check
https://www.disasterassistance.gov/
because everything is moving to Login.gov, and you may as well spend an hour in the car confirming your email and setting up the now-required two-factor authentication.
FEMA has not released the eligible counties for Individual Assistance (that happens afterward), but FL Local Governments have been sending FEMA the bill since October 5th, so it's likely charges back to October 5th will be included in the Individual Assistance declaration, which, I agree, Biden should announce on TV, the "mourning but generous dad" is his best role
Other Stuff
and the CERA map of storm surge --NHC predictions are (wisely) very general, these LSU and UT Galveston alums drill down into the NHC updates and produce a surge model
https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
--Surge communication is hard, y'all. The CERA model is precise, but extremely variable. Watching CERA will teach you why the NHC does not like to change the prediction too much, even though they will always be conservative in their advisories, and that is what leads to the public always saying "oh it turned away". It's because, even if you have the power to produce a precise surge estimate, it's highly variable to the point of frustration. Remember the surge predictions for Irma? They were nuts, and then the storm wave tripped on its own feet...so weird. anyway.
NHC doesn't want to constantly freak you out with the details, they know it will turn people off to the warnings. But CERA is cool if you are planning mutual aid and are obsessively checking info updates anyhow, and their hindcast of the max surge is always a useful product.
Florida stuff
The state has a decent disaster dashboard, so you don't have to listen to the mewling fascist on tv. the main page lists evacuations by county, although few counties have full area evacuations.
to understand evacuations, Florida has a very specific geography for it, unlike Louisiana where we live in the ocean and its 60 miles to upland. In Florida, you can evac 10 miles and your changes of being crushed and entombed in a sand dune, never to be found again, those odds lower dramatically.
You can look up a county disaster page, and get good info that will also likely be posted to facebook, but without the anti-semitism. Here's the one for Pinellas.
it's 2024, and county governments are crowd sourcing DRT damage reports for the FEMA application for Individual Assistance, here's the one for Pinellas, so you can find the website for your uncle's county and text it to him after he's there snapping photos of the tree that hit the garage, and Pinellas can use that photo right away to get money released from Uncle Sam.--although it's going to be the more distal and rural counties that will need this kind of citizen sourced DRT information, FEMA will be on Pinellas.
Free Evac Options for Pinellas H-borough Pasco, etc, although it is late now
1 800 729 3413, phones open 7am-7pm
Use Uber code MILTONRELIEF to receive free Uber ride to a shelter. Uber will also likely bill Uncle Sam in the 51 counties(!) in the emergency declaration
Just a note that Polk and Orange Counties are not under evac orders, just flash flood warnings. The flash floods in Florida are not the dangerous sand plumes that happen in the mountains (thanks, Mountain Top Removal), but... park on the second floor of the deck, probably.
what shelters are open
https://www.floridadisaster.org/shelter-status/
text messages for your county to receive info directly to celphone, while you are evacuated or not
NOAA is in Lakeland, and not even all their planes have left LAL
Life will suck in Polk County, just east of Hillsborough (Tampa) but it's like having to hang out in barracks for a week, vs shitting your pants in Pinellas, being deafened by the roar of the wind, and watching street signs fly through the air, and water cover everything in that muddy sand that smells of dead animals
17 shelters open in Polk
“It is a bare necessity, meaning we don’t have blankets and pillows, things like that. If you come to any one of our 17 shelters, you’ll need to bring those items for yourself. Hygiene items you need to bring, as well. We do provide three meals a day,” said Principal Tom Patton.
[PS who pays for those meals and shelters, it's FEMA send all meal complaints to Mike Johnson]
Something to watch, i think, for those of us prepping to go in after the winds die, are power outages in Hillsborough, Orange and Polk Counties, as a measure
Hillsborough on poweroutage.us
teco power east Hillsborough county
polk county lakeland power outage map
aaaannd hopefully these resources are good online things to share with your people on site, or off site. for god's sake, don't check them obsessively, some of us are paid to do that.
just kidding about the voting. just do it. bring friends. USA.
posted by eustatic at 7:58 PM on October 8 [47 favorites]
Big shift south for 11 pm report. Still category 5. 915 mb
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:05 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:05 PM on October 8 [1 favorite]
Update from Sarasota. Shorter than my comment above, promise.
This morning the county expanded the area to be evacuated, adding zone C (we're in B, on the edge of C). My wife and I had made a deal at the start, that if they evac'd zone C, we'd jump. So we're doing that. I spent basically all day getting sandbags, then sandbagging and tarping patio doors and the front and side door, and taking everything outside and putting into the garage.
Tomorrow we collect my in-laws and drive to a family friend's house 20-25 minutes north -- not out of the "cone" to be sure, but outside all of the flood evacuation zones. (the Florida hurricane mantra is "run from water, hide from wind.") And as dances_with_sneetches notes, the storm is sliding south, so we're probably (nothing's sure yet) getting at least a little farther away.
The hurricane-that-shall-not-be-named rolls in around 2 AM Thursday. By being relatively close, we hope to be able to get back to our house on Friday, maybe even late Thursday, and see how it fared. Fingers crossed.
posted by martin q blank at 8:31 PM on October 8 [31 favorites]
This morning the county expanded the area to be evacuated, adding zone C (we're in B, on the edge of C). My wife and I had made a deal at the start, that if they evac'd zone C, we'd jump. So we're doing that. I spent basically all day getting sandbags, then sandbagging and tarping patio doors and the front and side door, and taking everything outside and putting into the garage.
Tomorrow we collect my in-laws and drive to a family friend's house 20-25 minutes north -- not out of the "cone" to be sure, but outside all of the flood evacuation zones. (the Florida hurricane mantra is "run from water, hide from wind.") And as dances_with_sneetches notes, the storm is sliding south, so we're probably (nothing's sure yet) getting at least a little farther away.
The hurricane-that-shall-not-be-named rolls in around 2 AM Thursday. By being relatively close, we hope to be able to get back to our house on Friday, maybe even late Thursday, and see how it fared. Fingers crossed.
posted by martin q blank at 8:31 PM on October 8 [31 favorites]
Long comments are fine! Wishing you all the best, martin q blank, and everyone else who may be affected.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:16 PM on October 8 [4 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 9:16 PM on October 8 [4 favorites]
As an English major, I'm hoping for at least a few "Paradise Lost" captions after Milton is through.
Followed of course by "Paradise Regained"
posted by gingerbeer at 10:49 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
Followed of course by "Paradise Regained"
posted by gingerbeer at 10:49 PM on October 8 [3 favorites]
each side being one meter in length?
I feel pretty sure I could drag a sturdy container of water that's 1 meter cubed! Am I missing something?
A standard pallet of bottled water is roughly 54" tall on a standard size 48"x40" pallet. It weighs about 2200lbs or essentially 1000kgs. You can move it with a pallet jack but it sure ain't easy. But that's the power of steel wheels on hard concrete, almost train like rolling resistance. You aren't dragging that wood pallet across the concrete floor though. It might as well be nailed down.
But bottled water doesn't slosh. You can also get palletized 1000 litre tanks. Much smaller and if full they don't slosh either. Only put 800 litres in one though and moving them with a pallet jack can get exciting. 800 kgs moving at even a walking pace has a lot of momentum.
posted by Mitheral at 11:59 PM on October 8 [11 favorites]
I feel pretty sure I could drag a sturdy container of water that's 1 meter cubed! Am I missing something?
A standard pallet of bottled water is roughly 54" tall on a standard size 48"x40" pallet. It weighs about 2200lbs or essentially 1000kgs. You can move it with a pallet jack but it sure ain't easy. But that's the power of steel wheels on hard concrete, almost train like rolling resistance. You aren't dragging that wood pallet across the concrete floor though. It might as well be nailed down.
But bottled water doesn't slosh. You can also get palletized 1000 litre tanks. Much smaller and if full they don't slosh either. Only put 800 litres in one though and moving them with a pallet jack can get exciting. 800 kgs moving at even a walking pace has a lot of momentum.
posted by Mitheral at 11:59 PM on October 8 [11 favorites]
I’ve read in a number of places now that Helene and associated storms dumped upwards of 40 trillion gallons of water on the US Southwest.
At ~8 lbs./gal, that’s 320 trillion lbs. of water, and it definitely did a lot of sloshing.
I wonder whether we could read that in changes in the length of the sidereal day over that period.
I noticed that just prior to the Turkish earthquake we had a couple of the shortest days on record, reversing a long trend of days getting longer, as they must in the long run, of course, as tidal friction slows the Earth's rotation.
posted by jamjam at 12:24 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
At ~8 lbs./gal, that’s 320 trillion lbs. of water, and it definitely did a lot of sloshing.
I wonder whether we could read that in changes in the length of the sidereal day over that period.
I noticed that just prior to the Turkish earthquake we had a couple of the shortest days on record, reversing a long trend of days getting longer, as they must in the long run, of course, as tidal friction slows the Earth's rotation.
posted by jamjam at 12:24 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
I highly recommend The Extreme Weather Report series, and other videos, by Yellow Dot Studios.
"If police in Florida were going appropriately hard on the Milton evacuation orders.."
"Because #Milton reached Cat 5 for a second time today, and because landfall is only a little over 24 hours away, the new forecast from NHC no longer calls for the hurricane to strike as a Cat 3. It is forecast to hit #Florida as a Category 4 cyclone. Deeper surge now forecast."
"I spoke to a bunch of climate scientists about Hurricane Milton. Everyone was shocked, no one was surprised."
"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt."
"A perfect example of how “hope” makes us stupid."
posted by jeffburdges at 1:11 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
"If police in Florida were going appropriately hard on the Milton evacuation orders.."
"Because #Milton reached Cat 5 for a second time today, and because landfall is only a little over 24 hours away, the new forecast from NHC no longer calls for the hurricane to strike as a Cat 3. It is forecast to hit #Florida as a Category 4 cyclone. Deeper surge now forecast."
"I spoke to a bunch of climate scientists about Hurricane Milton. Everyone was shocked, no one was surprised."
"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt."
"A perfect example of how “hope” makes us stupid."
posted by jeffburdges at 1:11 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
I'm sure that people are refusing to leave (or unable to leave) for all kinds of reasons but at least some of them seem to be getting encouragement because of the attention they're getting? I'm seeing a lot of news stories and posts on social media of people who are going to "ride it out" and there's a sort of "rubbernecking at the accident scene" voyeuristic aspect to the way this is getting them attention?
Some of them, I really hope are fake, like a young woman with a newborn baby. I hope that's just someone harvesting clicks on Tiktok with stolen photos.
posted by Zumbador at 4:37 AM on October 9 [1 favorite]
Some of them, I really hope are fake, like a young woman with a newborn baby. I hope that's just someone harvesting clicks on Tiktok with stolen photos.
posted by Zumbador at 4:37 AM on October 9 [1 favorite]
Disney is closing in advance of the storm. A Florida colleague noted that this is one of those "shit's getting real" signs.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:14 AM on October 9 [7 favorites]
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:14 AM on October 9 [7 favorites]
There was a TiKTOK going around after Helene of show storm surge 3-4 feet up someone’s patio door, with water pouring in and the homeowner screaming about having recently remodeled. I mean, what did the woman think she was gonna do staying home?
I will admit, I sometimes enjoy the news coverage of a Reporter standing in a flooded intersection when a local floats by in a raft drinking beer. I am sure the TikTok and instagram influence has certainly made people bolder and stupider.
I appreciate Martin q blank above for sharing his rationale trying staying put and the staying close by. But for anyone who has a water view and if in the zone of likely storm surge what do you think you are going to do staying home?
posted by CostcoCultist at 6:27 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
I will admit, I sometimes enjoy the news coverage of a Reporter standing in a flooded intersection when a local floats by in a raft drinking beer. I am sure the TikTok and instagram influence has certainly made people bolder and stupider.
I appreciate Martin q blank above for sharing his rationale trying staying put and the staying close by. But for anyone who has a water view and if in the zone of likely storm surge what do you think you are going to do staying home?
posted by CostcoCultist at 6:27 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
A lot of people are more afraid of a definitely stressful and unknown situation, e.g. evacuating, than of a known situation with an uncertain outcome. (Draw your own parallels.)
Like a lot of human risk assessment, it's generally "fine" up until the point you realize you are probably going to die and there's nothing you can do about it. The bad decisions stack up almost invisibly behind you, because those same decisions that were fine before now have a new context that makes them not fine but you didn't understand how things have changed.
Like the guy who went back to his slowly flooding apartment to check on stuff but couldn't get out again because the wooden deck outside his door had floated up in the rising water and blocked the door from opening. How would you be able to predict in advance that might happen, especially in a stressful situation when your door has always worked before? The wise choice would be "don't go into a flooding building" but the reasons why not to do that are not always obvious.
And, I dunno, you can yell at old people for staying, but a lot of them are thinking, well, if my house gets wrecked and I'm not it it, I don't have the time or energy or money or health or capability to put my life and my shit back together so i'm just going to stay here and if I don't die it's probably not that bad to recover from, and if I die that's fine because it wouldn't have been worth living anyway.
I mean "obviously" if the cops tell you to get the fuck out on loudspeakers running down the street every ten minutes, you should get the fuck out, but not everyone is going to respond that way, and that's a little bit why.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:27 AM on October 9 [16 favorites]
Like a lot of human risk assessment, it's generally "fine" up until the point you realize you are probably going to die and there's nothing you can do about it. The bad decisions stack up almost invisibly behind you, because those same decisions that were fine before now have a new context that makes them not fine but you didn't understand how things have changed.
Like the guy who went back to his slowly flooding apartment to check on stuff but couldn't get out again because the wooden deck outside his door had floated up in the rising water and blocked the door from opening. How would you be able to predict in advance that might happen, especially in a stressful situation when your door has always worked before? The wise choice would be "don't go into a flooding building" but the reasons why not to do that are not always obvious.
And, I dunno, you can yell at old people for staying, but a lot of them are thinking, well, if my house gets wrecked and I'm not it it, I don't have the time or energy or money or health or capability to put my life and my shit back together so i'm just going to stay here and if I don't die it's probably not that bad to recover from, and if I die that's fine because it wouldn't have been worth living anyway.
I mean "obviously" if the cops tell you to get the fuck out on loudspeakers running down the street every ten minutes, you should get the fuck out, but not everyone is going to respond that way, and that's a little bit why.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:27 AM on October 9 [16 favorites]
I work for a nonprofit that, among other things, does emergency type work for natural disasters.
One of my collegues was idly chatting with another about how FEMA was out of money, his worries that FEMA would be stealing the homes of people who applied for aid, and then he said that since FEMA was trying to keep private aid out he wondered if the people we'd sent to help in Florida would be safe.
I wasn't part of that, but i did put up a comment in our corporate Teams later about misinformation being spread on social media and a link to FEMA's page responding to that shit. I very carefully did not call out coworker and to the best of my knowledge they weren't aware i'd overheard their misinformation spreading. They gave my comment a thumbs up so maybe it actually did some good for them.
But I'm at a place that is actually, directly, involved in private relief work! The fact that someone here was spreading bullshit about evil FEMA is evidence that the propaganda from the right has spread far and wide.
I will say though, for Marjorie Taylor Greene, you are right! We CAN control the weather, and we do. We just don't have any really fine grained control and all we can do is turn up the volume on existing weather. We do that by dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Maybe, Rep Greene, we should try turning the volume down by cutting our CO2 emissions?
posted by sotonohito at 6:34 AM on October 9 [19 favorites]
One of my collegues was idly chatting with another about how FEMA was out of money, his worries that FEMA would be stealing the homes of people who applied for aid, and then he said that since FEMA was trying to keep private aid out he wondered if the people we'd sent to help in Florida would be safe.
I wasn't part of that, but i did put up a comment in our corporate Teams later about misinformation being spread on social media and a link to FEMA's page responding to that shit. I very carefully did not call out coworker and to the best of my knowledge they weren't aware i'd overheard their misinformation spreading. They gave my comment a thumbs up so maybe it actually did some good for them.
But I'm at a place that is actually, directly, involved in private relief work! The fact that someone here was spreading bullshit about evil FEMA is evidence that the propaganda from the right has spread far and wide.
I will say though, for Marjorie Taylor Greene, you are right! We CAN control the weather, and we do. We just don't have any really fine grained control and all we can do is turn up the volume on existing weather. We do that by dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Maybe, Rep Greene, we should try turning the volume down by cutting our CO2 emissions?
posted by sotonohito at 6:34 AM on October 9 [19 favorites]
It seems like most of the focus is on the storm surge and if you live outside that range, then you don’t need to evacuate. But strong winds of a Cat 5 knocking down trees onto your roof seems equally likely.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:43 AM on October 9
posted by TWinbrook8 at 6:43 AM on October 9
Down here in SE Florida it feels like tornado weather, not hurricane weather.
posted by wierdo at 6:53 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 6:53 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
My in-law aunt and uncle in Bradenton/Sarasota have made it to their shelter at a local elementary school. She is a retired Nurse Practitioner. She has already had to assist one of the other shelterers by helping them to get to the local ER for an unspecified problem. Outside of the immediate danger of flooding, its disruptions of services and what not that will cause so many problems.
posted by mmascolino at 7:06 AM on October 9 [5 favorites]
posted by mmascolino at 7:06 AM on October 9 [5 favorites]
WGOWS show on Port Tampa
And on chemical risks, risks to and fertilizer supply.
Suggests US Navy should mobilize sooner rather than later from New York.
Sigessts USN should commandeer Cruise Ships as relief vessels, since they are not selling tickets anyway. I forget if this happened in New Orleans With Carnival
We did request Naval support in Katrina, and did not get it.
posted by eustatic at 7:50 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
And on chemical risks, risks to and fertilizer supply.
Suggests US Navy should mobilize sooner rather than later from New York.
Sigessts USN should commandeer Cruise Ships as relief vessels, since they are not selling tickets anyway. I forget if this happened in New Orleans With Carnival
We did request Naval support in Katrina, and did not get it.
posted by eustatic at 7:50 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Down here in SE Florida it feels like tornado weather, not hurricane weather.
The news i'm following has just posted the NWS tornado watch for all of southern FLA, so yeah, this seems spot on. Stay safe.
posted by OHenryPacey at 8:01 AM on October 9 [1 favorite]
The news i'm following has just posted the NWS tornado watch for all of southern FLA, so yeah, this seems spot on. Stay safe.
posted by OHenryPacey at 8:01 AM on October 9 [1 favorite]
oh, and if someone gives you that shit about HAARP, and cloud seeding, tell them, yes, weather is now manmade, but by ExxonMobil. and I can drive them to the stacks pumping out PM in Baton Rouge, making the clouds and the climate, if they would like to see the refineries seeding the clouds and juicing these hurricanes.
posted by eustatic at 8:03 AM on October 9 [10 favorites]
posted by eustatic at 8:03 AM on October 9 [10 favorites]
We did request Naval support in Katrina, and did not get it.
Speaking as someone who was deployed to Pensacola and spent several weeks doing Katrina relief as an active duty Navy person, I can assure you the Navy was supporting the relief effort. I'm not sure if you mean there were requests in advance of the storm for evacuation support?
I checked out the video and while I'm not saying he's completely wrong, one challenge with moving Naval assets around right now is there's a honking big hurricane either where you want them to be or about to be in between the major Naval ports (Norfolk, Mayport) and Tampa. I'm not involved in coordinating the Naval response to hurricanes anymore but based on prior experience, I'm sure the entire DOD structure is plugging in with FEMA and the Coast Guard (as lead SAR agency in the homeland) to support. That's what happened / is happening with Helene.
posted by macfly at 9:05 AM on October 9 [12 favorites]
Speaking as someone who was deployed to Pensacola and spent several weeks doing Katrina relief as an active duty Navy person, I can assure you the Navy was supporting the relief effort. I'm not sure if you mean there were requests in advance of the storm for evacuation support?
I checked out the video and while I'm not saying he's completely wrong, one challenge with moving Naval assets around right now is there's a honking big hurricane either where you want them to be or about to be in between the major Naval ports (Norfolk, Mayport) and Tampa. I'm not involved in coordinating the Naval response to hurricanes anymore but based on prior experience, I'm sure the entire DOD structure is plugging in with FEMA and the Coast Guard (as lead SAR agency in the homeland) to support. That's what happened / is happening with Helene.
posted by macfly at 9:05 AM on October 9 [12 favorites]
Tornadoes popping off across the state. Also the hurricane forum I’m on is really sweating the wobbles. Might still directly hit St. Pete, might go a little south. Not great. Plus no basements in Florida for tornadoes.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:07 AM on October 9 [6 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:07 AM on October 9 [6 favorites]
The most accurate real-time displays of major storm activity and location are the lightning trackers. Here's Florida in Blitzortung. (real time link).
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:17 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:17 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Well that escalated quickly. Long track tornadoes popping off across the southern part of the peninsula. That is not typical for tropical systems, where tornadoes and waterspouts are fairly common, but almost always very short lived. One of the cells out in the Everglades has had a rotation signature going for almost two hours. That's wild for a hurricane-related spin up.
Thankfully for me, it's all to my west so far, out in the Everglades, but there's at least 3 tornado warnings currently out for the area around Fort Myers, two of which have been confirmed.
posted by wierdo at 9:20 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
Thankfully for me, it's all to my west so far, out in the Everglades, but there's at least 3 tornado warnings currently out for the area around Fort Myers, two of which have been confirmed.
posted by wierdo at 9:20 AM on October 9 [2 favorites]
My cousin updated us all that his wife (and their dog!) are now in Orlando with him.
The condo they were temporarily renting in St. Pete while cleaning up their flooded house was originally considered safe, but there was reports that water would be turned off in advance of the hurricane, as well as nearby cranes potentially damaging the structure, so they decided it would be best for her to join him.
Their house is in evac zone A so they're fully expecting to return to a flooded home again.
posted by paisley sheep at 9:28 AM on October 9 [6 favorites]
The condo they were temporarily renting in St. Pete while cleaning up their flooded house was originally considered safe, but there was reports that water would be turned off in advance of the hurricane, as well as nearby cranes potentially damaging the structure, so they decided it would be best for her to join him.
Their house is in evac zone A so they're fully expecting to return to a flooded home again.
posted by paisley sheep at 9:28 AM on October 9 [6 favorites]
I’m in Los Angeles but I find myself fascinated and horrified by this. It’s like a slow-moving earthquake.
posted by samthemander at 10:09 AM on October 9
posted by samthemander at 10:09 AM on October 9
It's been like Godzilla wading through the Gulf toward land all week.
posted by torokunai at 10:51 AM on October 9 [6 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 10:51 AM on October 9 [6 favorites]
As the Category 5 Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida’s west coast, the offices for Trump’s social media platform are at risk. The Sarasota offices of Trump Media, a publicly traded company of which Trump is the biggest shareholder, are directly in Milton’s projected path. [The Guardian | Live Blog]
posted by mazola at 11:11 AM on October 9 [5 favorites]
posted by mazola at 11:11 AM on October 9 [5 favorites]
Looks more and more like Milton will stay south of Tampa Bay enough that it will once again dodge the threat of catastrophic storm surge, although there will probably still be plenty of damage from wind and flooding. So I'm feeling optimistic.
Sarasota on the other hand, is going to be completely devastated. If I prayed to something, some god or other impossible being, I'd be praying for anyone who couldn't get out.
posted by dis_integration at 11:31 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Sarasota on the other hand, is going to be completely devastated. If I prayed to something, some god or other impossible being, I'd be praying for anyone who couldn't get out.
posted by dis_integration at 11:31 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Live tornado warnings. Currently 14 of them. Sorry, 15.
posted by credulous at 11:33 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
posted by credulous at 11:33 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
A snippet from the NY Time's coverage (gift link): "April Fore, 49, enjoyed vacationing in Florida, so a few months ago, she moved to Orlando from Indiana. But she didn't count on how hard it would be to live with hurricane threats. “It’s too scary,” Fore said as she ate lunch in a hurricane shelter. Now she plans to move to California."
Um, who's going to tell her about earthquakes, drought, and wildfires?
posted by hydra77 at 11:38 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Um, who's going to tell her about earthquakes, drought, and wildfires?
posted by hydra77 at 11:38 AM on October 9 [3 favorites]
I grew up in central California and spent four years stationed in Florida. I will take earthquakes any day over hurricanes for my anxiety. An earthquake hits, and you recover from it. With Hurricane's I'd spend the two weeks before it stressing over the tracks and changes, figuring out where to to evac to, if I needed to evac and everything else and it was horrible for my mental health.
posted by Art_Pot at 11:50 AM on October 9 [1 favorite]
posted by Art_Pot at 11:50 AM on October 9 [1 favorite]
Um, who's going to tell her about earthquakes, drought, and wildfires?
I think sometime after Hurricane Katrina someone got curious and tried to find out whether there was indeed a place in the country that was "the most safe from natural disasters". They ultimately identified a specific county in Eastern Connecticut.
That county happens to be where I'm from and I can report that safety from natural disasters doesn't necessarily lead to a wholly placid existance.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:00 PM on October 9 [8 favorites]
I think sometime after Hurricane Katrina someone got curious and tried to find out whether there was indeed a place in the country that was "the most safe from natural disasters". They ultimately identified a specific county in Eastern Connecticut.
That county happens to be where I'm from and I can report that safety from natural disasters doesn't necessarily lead to a wholly placid existance.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:00 PM on October 9 [8 favorites]
Low-bandwidth radar pic from NWS that shows tornado warning polygons, updates every 5 min
posted by LobsterMitten at 12:00 PM on October 9
posted by LobsterMitten at 12:00 PM on October 9
I think sometime after Hurricane Katrina someone got curious and tried to find out whether there was indeed a place in the country that was "the most safe from natural disasters". They ultimately identified a specific county in Eastern Connecticut.
Way back in February 1979, newspapers reported that survivalists had determined Warwick was 'the safest city in Australia'. Days later, it was hit by the worst floods in 50 years.
posted by Paul Slade at 12:21 PM on October 9 [9 favorites]
Way back in February 1979, newspapers reported that survivalists had determined Warwick was 'the safest city in Australia'. Days later, it was hit by the worst floods in 50 years.
posted by Paul Slade at 12:21 PM on October 9 [9 favorites]
When I moved to the Oregon coast, a family member accused me of trying to commit suicide by earthquake. When my daughter moved here her father shouted furiously that she was going to be burned alive by wildfires. Why couldn't we just stay where we were, people asked. Somewhere safe, somewhere far from fires and hurricanes and earthquakes and tornadoes. Somewhere like home: Asheville, North Carolina.
posted by mygothlaundry at 12:31 PM on October 9 [24 favorites]
posted by mygothlaundry at 12:31 PM on October 9 [24 favorites]
I think sometime after Hurricane Katrina someone got curious and tried to find out whether there was indeed a place in the country that was "the most safe from natural disasters". They ultimately identified a specific county in Eastern Connecticut.
I remember reading that article. It was this article in Slate from 2005.
posted by mmascolino at 12:53 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
I remember reading that article. It was this article in Slate from 2005.
posted by mmascolino at 12:53 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
Milton is the hurricane that scientists were dreading (Zoë Schlanger, The Atlantic gift)
posted by box at 1:19 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
posted by box at 1:19 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Before Helene, Asheville was said to be a safe haven from weather change events.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:31 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:31 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Plenty of New Orleanians moved to Asheville.
Macfly, thanks for you work, and your information.
Clarification, I had meant, we had wanted a relief vessel during the week when the Gretna sheriff had people pinned down in the superdome, since the cruise ship dock is right there by the Convention Center where people passed away from exposure.
Thanks for your information and logic on moving assets into the hurricane zone. It seems like we manufacture big Navy ships in Pascagoula, but none of them are appropriate for a relief mission?
What do you think about the idea of using Cruise ships as relief vessels?
posted by eustatic at 1:39 PM on October 9
Macfly, thanks for you work, and your information.
Clarification, I had meant, we had wanted a relief vessel during the week when the Gretna sheriff had people pinned down in the superdome, since the cruise ship dock is right there by the Convention Center where people passed away from exposure.
Thanks for your information and logic on moving assets into the hurricane zone. It seems like we manufacture big Navy ships in Pascagoula, but none of them are appropriate for a relief mission?
What do you think about the idea of using Cruise ships as relief vessels?
posted by eustatic at 1:39 PM on October 9
I think sometime after Hurricane Katrina someone got curious and tried to find out whether there was indeed a place in the country that was "the most safe from natural disasters". They ultimately identified a specific county in Eastern Connecticut.
That county happens to be where I'm from and I can report that safety from natural disasters doesn't necessarily lead to a wholly placid existance.
Speaking as a fellow rural-Connecticut transplant: you might be safe from hurricanes, earthquakes, mudslides, floods, giant Asian hornets, poison monkeys, and tornados, but you've got to watch out for the WASPs.
posted by Mayor West at 1:44 PM on October 9 [12 favorites]
That county happens to be where I'm from and I can report that safety from natural disasters doesn't necessarily lead to a wholly placid existance.
Speaking as a fellow rural-Connecticut transplant: you might be safe from hurricanes, earthquakes, mudslides, floods, giant Asian hornets, poison monkeys, and tornados, but you've got to watch out for the WASPs.
posted by Mayor West at 1:44 PM on October 9 [12 favorites]
Check in thread in MetaTalk for Milton
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:53 PM on October 9 [4 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:53 PM on October 9 [4 favorites]
Speaking as a fellow rural-Connecticut transplant: you might be safe from hurricanes
The New England Hurricane of 1938 would like a word.
At the risk of stating the obvious, no place has ever really been truly safe from natural hazards, and climate change makes every place more vulnerable to climate related hazards. Flooding is always a risk in mountainous areas because of how rapidly water flows off of steep slopes and concentrates in streams and other low lying areas. Within 6 miles of my house in central New Jersey, at least 8 people have died from flash flooding in the past few years in several separate events, and it isn't even particularly hilly here.
posted by mollweide at 1:54 PM on October 9 [4 favorites]
The New England Hurricane of 1938 would like a word.
At the risk of stating the obvious, no place has ever really been truly safe from natural hazards, and climate change makes every place more vulnerable to climate related hazards. Flooding is always a risk in mountainous areas because of how rapidly water flows off of steep slopes and concentrates in streams and other low lying areas. Within 6 miles of my house in central New Jersey, at least 8 people have died from flash flooding in the past few years in several separate events, and it isn't even particularly hilly here.
posted by mollweide at 1:54 PM on October 9 [4 favorites]
> Asheville was said to be a safe haven
Knowing how often Chehalis/Centralia WA gets hit with floods (it has two sizable rivers converging nearby) ISTM a tropical storm sequence dumping historic amounts of water into the S Appalachian watershed was going to happen sooner or later.
I did see on a news story on the flooding that FEMA had removed the $600/mo flood insurance requirement recently, as they were only looking at "100-yr" flooding risk. Weird.
posted by torokunai at 1:55 PM on October 9
Knowing how often Chehalis/Centralia WA gets hit with floods (it has two sizable rivers converging nearby) ISTM a tropical storm sequence dumping historic amounts of water into the S Appalachian watershed was going to happen sooner or later.
I did see on a news story on the flooding that FEMA had removed the $600/mo flood insurance requirement recently, as they were only looking at "100-yr" flooding risk. Weird.
posted by torokunai at 1:55 PM on October 9
You can sort of look at data center locations - these are people who specialize in non-correlative disasters, both manmade and natural, and these are the locations Microsoft has chosen in the US: Amazon's are pretty similar.
Central US (Des Moines, Iowa)
East US (Richmond, Virginia)
East US 2 (Richmond, Virginia)
East US 3 (Atlanta, Georgia)
North Central US (Chicago, Illinois)
South Central US (San Antonio, Texas)
West Central US (Cheyenne, Wyoming)
West US 1 (San Francisco, California)
West US 2 (Moses Lake, Washington)
West US 3 (Phoenix, Arizona)
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:01 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
Central US (Des Moines, Iowa)
East US (Richmond, Virginia)
East US 2 (Richmond, Virginia)
East US 3 (Atlanta, Georgia)
North Central US (Chicago, Illinois)
South Central US (San Antonio, Texas)
West Central US (Cheyenne, Wyoming)
West US 1 (San Francisco, California)
West US 2 (Moses Lake, Washington)
West US 3 (Phoenix, Arizona)
posted by The_Vegetables at 2:01 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
I'm in southern Arizona, which most people would think as safe from a hurricane disaster. For the most part we are, but not entirely. Back in 1983 the remnants of Tropical Storm Octave stalled out over the region, it rained like hell for three straight days, and the flood damage was massive. IIRC 11 people died in the storm and flooding. Because of that we have a flood control district here now. There's not really a "safe" from natural disasters, there's just varying degrees of "safer."
Looking at the latest NHC update, damn, Sarasota is in big trouble. All we can hope for is the least damage possible here. Tampa looks like they might escape the worst but it still is going to wreck a lot of things. And Cape Coral hopefully gets spared the worst. I have a lot of co-workers there and Ian was really, really bad for them.
posted by azpenguin at 2:19 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
Looking at the latest NHC update, damn, Sarasota is in big trouble. All we can hope for is the least damage possible here. Tampa looks like they might escape the worst but it still is going to wreck a lot of things. And Cape Coral hopefully gets spared the worst. I have a lot of co-workers there and Ian was really, really bad for them.
posted by azpenguin at 2:19 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
Note that “non-correlative disasters” is the correct metric only when you have multiple redundant datacenters and can afford to lose one or two of them at a time.
posted by mbrubeck at 2:21 PM on October 9 [1 favorite]
posted by mbrubeck at 2:21 PM on October 9 [1 favorite]
Plenty of New Orleanians moved to Asheville. There was a whole influx after Katrina. That's when the Asheville Mardi Gras parade got started; a friend of mine was in the Second Line band for a while there. It was a really nice cross cultural exchange. I'm hoping the WNC Helene refugees find a good place to go as well.
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:27 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:27 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
At the current moment, the NOAA estimated track on Google Maps passes through about a block from my Dad’s house in Bradenton. Last I heard, he didn’t evacuate.
posted by notoriety public at 2:30 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 2:30 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
eustatic - I was doing helo coordination so I'm not sure what the deal was on the request for a ship to support the superdome situation. Most Navy ships aren't actually set up for civilian berthing so I'm not sure exactly what they were being asked to do? Another possible issue is that the channel to get ships in and out to the pier might not have been cleared yet? I know storm debris in the shipping channels was a big issue early on and I don't know how long it took to get it cleared enough to get ships pierside. I don't recall any of the large Navy ships going pierside although, that's just memory so I could be wrong.
My understanding is one of the concerns about impacts to Tampa Bay (the Bay, not the city) is that if the channel becomes impassable, that complicates the seaside situation a great deal.
WRT Pascagoula - The Naval Station there was shut down in the early 2000's I think. So it's the Inglall's shipyard which does indeed build big ships but unfortunately that usually means they're not ready to deploy - for starters, they aren't crewed until very late in the constructions cycle. I'm pretty sure it will be more efficient to move Navy assets around from Mayport or Norfolk if FEMA requests them.
Cruise ships can be a solution for temporary housing if it's needed but honestly, most of the time people want to go home or to family / friends if they can't go home. Hence the FEMA trailer program - it lets people get back to their property and work on rebuilding, etc. For non-home owners temp housing can be a good stopgap but very few people want to live on a cruise ship (or other temp housing) for a long time if they have any other options so most people move on as soon as they can.
posted by macfly at 2:50 PM on October 9 [4 favorites]
My understanding is one of the concerns about impacts to Tampa Bay (the Bay, not the city) is that if the channel becomes impassable, that complicates the seaside situation a great deal.
WRT Pascagoula - The Naval Station there was shut down in the early 2000's I think. So it's the Inglall's shipyard which does indeed build big ships but unfortunately that usually means they're not ready to deploy - for starters, they aren't crewed until very late in the constructions cycle. I'm pretty sure it will be more efficient to move Navy assets around from Mayport or Norfolk if FEMA requests them.
Cruise ships can be a solution for temporary housing if it's needed but honestly, most of the time people want to go home or to family / friends if they can't go home. Hence the FEMA trailer program - it lets people get back to their property and work on rebuilding, etc. For non-home owners temp housing can be a good stopgap but very few people want to live on a cruise ship (or other temp housing) for a long time if they have any other options so most people move on as soon as they can.
posted by macfly at 2:50 PM on October 9 [4 favorites]
I think I had seen elsewhere that Longboat Key (Brandenton/Sarasota barrier island) had been totally evcatuated and bridges shut down, but I definitively wouldn’t want to be ther right now.
I don’t wanna give
her more attention, but the worlds worst influencer will probably be safe in on the 4 floor of a relatively new building. The really question is how she will be doing 4 days after with no power, no internet, no hot meals and no working sewage.
posted by CostcoCultist at 2:54 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
I don’t wanna give
her more attention, but the worlds worst influencer will probably be safe in on the 4 floor of a relatively new building. The really question is how she will be doing 4 days after with no power, no internet, no hot meals and no working sewage.
posted by CostcoCultist at 2:54 PM on October 9 [2 favorites]
Well that was "fun" to watch. A reporter for WPBF was showing some tornado damage in Jensen Beach and damn near got clobbered by a second tornado that passed nearby less than 15 minutes after the first. It's like a tornado outbreak day back in Oklahoma.
posted by wierdo at 3:12 PM on October 9 [1 favorite]
posted by wierdo at 3:12 PM on October 9 [1 favorite]
"Peter Dodge, a meteorologist who worked on hurricane aircraft missions, spent much of his life chasing huge storms.
Death was no exception.
On Tuesday evening, the Hurricane Hunters of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dropped Mr. Dodge’s ashes into the eye of Hurricane Milton as the storm crossed Gulf waters on its path to Florida.
The flight in which his remains were taken was part of research into the storm — a fitting tribute, his colleagues said."
posted by gingerbeer at 3:45 PM on October 9 [12 favorites]
Death was no exception.
On Tuesday evening, the Hurricane Hunters of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dropped Mr. Dodge’s ashes into the eye of Hurricane Milton as the storm crossed Gulf waters on its path to Florida.
The flight in which his remains were taken was part of research into the storm — a fitting tribute, his colleagues said."
posted by gingerbeer at 3:45 PM on October 9 [12 favorites]
Vox debunking the whole idea of "climate havens":
"“The idea of a climate refuge itself is kind of an escapist fantasy,” said Billy Fleming, director of the McHarg Center at the University of Pennsylvania. “To the extent that a climate refuge even exists, it’s not a particularly physical or geophysical phenomenon. It’s social and economic.”"
posted by gingerbeer at 4:38 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
"“The idea of a climate refuge itself is kind of an escapist fantasy,” said Billy Fleming, director of the McHarg Center at the University of Pennsylvania. “To the extent that a climate refuge even exists, it’s not a particularly physical or geophysical phenomenon. It’s social and economic.”"
posted by gingerbeer at 4:38 PM on October 9 [3 favorites]
Just talked to a family member who has a second home in Florida. They're not there now, so I wasn't worried, but then they told me that they have friends who moved to Asheville, North Carolina and had their home wrecked by Helene. So, they invited them to stay at their place. In Sarasota.
It's 16ft. above sea level so they shouldn't have to worry about flooding, at least.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:16 PM on October 9 [1 favorite]
It's 16ft. above sea level so they shouldn't have to worry about flooding, at least.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:16 PM on October 9 [1 favorite]
« Older "This wasn’t on any of the city maps." | Thawing out the "Iceman's" facade Newer »
Get. Out. Now.
posted by ocschwar at 11:45 AM on October 7 [5 favorites]