☑️ The Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes (🇺🇸)
November 5, 2024 3:10 AM Subscribe
Election Day is finally here. (*gulp*) Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, after replacing a Biden campaign killed by an abysmal June debate, has run a historic sprint to the finish, promising (with Coach Tim Walz) "A New Way Forward" focused on reproductive rights, middle class economics, and protecting American democracy. Former President Donald Trump, saddled with myriad felonies, a historically unpopular running mate, and a platform that ranges from fascistic to incoherent, leads a darkly authoritarian counterculture that tried once to subvert the popular will and aims to do so again. Dozens of key House and Senate and ballot races hang in the balance, and the outcome has titanic implications for human rights, climate change, the international order, and the future of liberal democracy around the world. But despite the stark contrast, a lingering economic malaise (and suspiciously close polling) make this look like the closest contest in modern history. So let's give it a push in the right direction, yeah? Voting resources:
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Follow the returns: ⌚ Poll closing times - 🚨DecisionDeskHQ results - 📈 538 benchmarks - 📺 Live coverage - 📰 Politico Liveblog - 🐀Preparing for post-election subversion - ⌛Timeline through Inauguration Day
The 2024 presidential race went from deja vu to unprecedented overnight
More bits and bobs: Harris on SNL - Rogan endorses Trump - Lebron James, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Harrison Ford endorse Harris - The Onion examines a key swing voter - Dixville Notch is... a tie - over 78 million votes have been cast thus far
In Texas: A pregnant teenager died after trying to get care in three visits to Texas emergency rooms
Exactly how Trump could ban abortion nationwide
John Oliver's emotional final plea, highlighting Palestinian-American Georgia state rep. Ruwa Romman
Harris vows at Michigan rally to ‘do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza’
RFK Jr. wants federal health data so he can show vaccines are unsafe, Trump transition co-chair says
Five ways a Trump presidency would be disastrous for the climate
Could Dan Osborn, an independent candidate from Nebraska, upend the U.S. Senate race?
What Putin really wants from the US election
Closing arguments: Kamala Harris - Tim Walz - Barack Obama - Michelle Obama
Some reasons for hope (though not unless you VOTE 💪):
The 2024 presidential race went from deja vu to unprecedented overnight
More bits and bobs: Harris on SNL - Rogan endorses Trump - Lebron James, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Harrison Ford endorse Harris - The Onion examines a key swing voter - Dixville Notch is... a tie - over 78 million votes have been cast thus far
In Texas: A pregnant teenager died after trying to get care in three visits to Texas emergency rooms
Exactly how Trump could ban abortion nationwide
John Oliver's emotional final plea, highlighting Palestinian-American Georgia state rep. Ruwa Romman
Harris vows at Michigan rally to ‘do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza’
RFK Jr. wants federal health data so he can show vaccines are unsafe, Trump transition co-chair says
Five ways a Trump presidency would be disastrous for the climate
Could Dan Osborn, an independent candidate from Nebraska, upend the U.S. Senate race?
What Putin really wants from the US election
Closing arguments: Kamala Harris - Tim Walz - Barack Obama - Michelle Obama
Some reasons for hope (though not unless you VOTE 💪):
Gold-standard pollster Ann Selzer -- one of the most respected and accurate in the nation -- finds Harris leading by 3% in Iowa, after Trump previously won the state by 9 points. If those stats are correct, it heralds a huge win for Harris even as other polls say the race is too close to call.[Special thanks to Brandon Blatcher for helping assemble this post!]
Elections guru Jon Ralston predicts a (very) narrow Harris win in Nevada, after weeks of dooming over worrying early-vote returns that showed Republicans building a rare lead in the state.
Allan Lichtman gives Harris 9 of his vaunted 13 Keys to the White House
Even the notably bearish Nate Silver's final forecast is -literally- closer than a coin toss (with an ever-so-slight Harris advantage)
I just want to tell you all: USA, good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by chavenet at 3:17 AM on November 5 [130 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 3:17 AM on November 5 [130 favorites]
This is a FANTASTIC post, well done.
posted by saladin at 3:22 AM on November 5 [44 favorites]
posted by saladin at 3:22 AM on November 5 [44 favorites]
I don't know if I mentioned this in one of the other threads, but I was shocked to see Randall Terry (of Operation Rescue infamy) on my sample ballot. I guess for people who think the Republicans don't go far enough?
posted by mittens at 3:22 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by mittens at 3:22 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
*cough cough*
Sorry that I startled you there, America. I have been asked by the world to bring you a message.
How long have I been standing in the corner watching you? Longer than is healthy for either of us to know.
Anyway, the other nations got together and we talked. Well, almost everybody. We sent Russia an invite with the date November 6th.
I should say that the UK is here in body but not spirit, just staring in the distance, muttering to themselves, and isn't responding to anything we say. Apparently they looked deep into their own soul in the last few years and saw some dark shit. We could've told'em, but sometimes you need to find things out for yourself.
The rest of us huddled together and agreed on a message we all could sign off on. **Glares at Hungary and makes a shushing motion**
Ahem. **Reaches into backpocket and pulls out a folded piece of paper, reads**
"Dear America. Please allow us the luxury of not thinking about you for the next four years and, ideally, for the next forever years. Also, vote for the one who can dance, please."
Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**
Uhh… no need to debase yourself like that to get your special relationship back.
Later tonight I'll be off to an election night party that Zambia's hosting. The music will be nothing but bangers, and we're hoping to dance ourselves into exhaustion, wake up tomorrow, glance once at our phones, and never think about your politics ever again. But until I fuck off, hopefully forever, I'll just stand here in the corner.
**Stares**
Oh, and you'll probably want to burn that drawing the UK made, without looking at it, not even glance, okay. Healthier for everyone that way.
**Stands in corner, staring**
posted by Kattullus at 3:33 AM on November 5 [84 favorites]
Sorry that I startled you there, America. I have been asked by the world to bring you a message.
How long have I been standing in the corner watching you? Longer than is healthy for either of us to know.
Anyway, the other nations got together and we talked. Well, almost everybody. We sent Russia an invite with the date November 6th.
I should say that the UK is here in body but not spirit, just staring in the distance, muttering to themselves, and isn't responding to anything we say. Apparently they looked deep into their own soul in the last few years and saw some dark shit. We could've told'em, but sometimes you need to find things out for yourself.
The rest of us huddled together and agreed on a message we all could sign off on. **Glares at Hungary and makes a shushing motion**
Ahem. **Reaches into backpocket and pulls out a folded piece of paper, reads**
"Dear America. Please allow us the luxury of not thinking about you for the next four years and, ideally, for the next forever years. Also, vote for the one who can dance, please."
Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**
Uhh… no need to debase yourself like that to get your special relationship back.
Later tonight I'll be off to an election night party that Zambia's hosting. The music will be nothing but bangers, and we're hoping to dance ourselves into exhaustion, wake up tomorrow, glance once at our phones, and never think about your politics ever again. But until I fuck off, hopefully forever, I'll just stand here in the corner.
**Stares**
Oh, and you'll probably want to burn that drawing the UK made, without looking at it, not even glance, okay. Healthier for everyone that way.
**Stands in corner, staring**
posted by Kattullus at 3:33 AM on November 5 [84 favorites]
Note to anyone who hasn't voted yet - don't forget to check all the downballot stuff, and take a moment to check any of the proposals. I used Ballotpedia to check my full vote before I voted early; then spent about two minutes looking into some of the proposals I would be voting on. If I'd gone in blind I'd have supported them, but after only two minutes I realized that some of them would have been a big mistake (the "increase the powers of the Dept. of Sanitation" proposal sounded okay, but then I saw someone point out that it would extend to Sanitation crews cracking down on street food vendors and realized oh, wait, this is the mayor trying to be a dick).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:37 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:37 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Seems crazy to have to say this where any first world country's election is concerned, but I hope it all goes peacefully today.
From 2020's campaign and still a great song: Actually Vote
Here's a word from Hotel Fred.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:40 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
From 2020's campaign and still a great song: Actually Vote
Here's a word from Hotel Fred.
posted by Paul Slade at 3:40 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
chavenet: I just want to tell you all: USA, good luck. We're all counting on you.
I’m having the lasagna. Let’s do this.
posted by dr_dank at 3:43 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I’m having the lasagna. Let’s do this.
posted by dr_dank at 3:43 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Mod note: [Thank you so much, Rhaomi, and everyone participating! We've added this to the sidebar and Best Of blog!]
posted by taz (staff) at 3:45 AM on November 5 [25 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 3:45 AM on November 5 [25 favorites]
I'm going to link to the 2016 Metafilter Election Night Megathread as a corrective. About the time Trump was steamrolling to victory, someone in that thread commented: "everyone on this website assured me this was a lock for Hillary." I have never forgotten that.
For the past eight years, I have always thought of the epistemic closure that made reading that thread like watching a car crash in slow motion. Don't get cocky.
My prediction, having closely followed the election: Trump wins the electoral college with around 290 EC votes and Harris ekes out a tiny popular vote victory.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:45 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
For the past eight years, I have always thought of the epistemic closure that made reading that thread like watching a car crash in slow motion. Don't get cocky.
My prediction, having closely followed the election: Trump wins the electoral college with around 290 EC votes and Harris ekes out a tiny popular vote victory.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:45 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
...and may God save the United States of America [from itself].
posted by wenestvedt at 3:49 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 3:49 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Please let me stop thinking about Tr*mp again.
posted by h00py at 3:52 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]
posted by h00py at 3:52 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]
I'll be working the Geocode hotline for my local county election services all day...
posted by schyler523 at 3:53 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by schyler523 at 3:53 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Anything that gives the disgustingly corrupt “Trump is not a fascist” NYC Mayor Adams any extra political power is a hard NO for me this year, so all of the ballots after number one can wait until he is in jail. Doubly so with the attempt to crack down on the local street vendors…
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:53 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:53 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I used Ballotpedia to check my full vote before I voted early; then spent about two minutes looking into some of the proposals I would be voting on. If I'd gone in blind I'd have supported them, but after only two minutes I realized that some of them would have been a big mistake
Seconding this. The language of some proposals/amendments etc. which appear on ballots can be really deceptive. The ad campaigns for or against them even more so.
posted by Foosnark at 4:05 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Seconding this. The language of some proposals/amendments etc. which appear on ballots can be really deceptive. The ad campaigns for or against them even more so.
posted by Foosnark at 4:05 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Here's what I hope happens: Harris wins and Trump loses. All his rallies and speeches and media tours just...stop. MAGA people, over the next few months, start to forget about Donald as he is seen less and less often in public, and when he does it excites very few.
The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes, and I'll say "Well, how about that. They did actually manage to put him in jail." And I'll go back to whittling a birdhouse or whatever.
posted by zardoz at 4:10 AM on November 5 [53 favorites]
The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes, and I'll say "Well, how about that. They did actually manage to put him in jail." And I'll go back to whittling a birdhouse or whatever.
posted by zardoz at 4:10 AM on November 5 [53 favorites]
I got caught with a half gram of cocaine on me 20 years ago, so I’m not allowed to have a voice ever again, but hopefully all y’all made up for it.
posted by HVACDC_Bag at 4:18 AM on November 5 [68 favorites]
posted by HVACDC_Bag at 4:18 AM on November 5 [68 favorites]
I read this post in the voice of a "Previously on..." summary. Then I threw it into the Star Wars Intro Creator, and goddamn if it didn't give me chills.
posted by Molesome at 4:21 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Molesome at 4:21 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
The best part is I don't have to ever think about Donald Trump again. Maybe in a year or so it'll be in the news that Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison for his voluminous crimes
His sentencing for falsifying business records is still scheduled for Nov. 26. That's my birthday, and I know exactly what I want for my birthday.
posted by Foosnark at 4:29 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
His sentencing for falsifying business records is still scheduled for Nov. 26. That's my birthday, and I know exactly what I want for my birthday.
posted by Foosnark at 4:29 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
Kamala wins, full stop, and tonight we are having orange chicken for dinner. Let’s go!
posted by mochapickle at 4:29 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 4:29 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
Voted early. By mail, but I dropped it off in a secured ballot box. But I'm in a Deep Blue city in a solidly Blue state.
First time I have ever voted early, but I just could not imagine myself waiting to vote until today.
“Poo-tee-weet?”
posted by SoberHighland at 4:30 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
First time I have ever voted early, but I just could not imagine myself waiting to vote until today.
“Poo-tee-weet?”
posted by SoberHighland at 4:30 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I have nothing to contribute beyond what busted_crayons said.
(exchanges a glance with Kattullus over in the other corner; sighs, a little wearily, and goes back to trying forlornly to persuade own government to stop dumping more coal and gas on the fire consuming us all)
posted by flabdablet at 4:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
(exchanges a glance with Kattullus over in the other corner; sighs, a little wearily, and goes back to trying forlornly to persuade own government to stop dumping more coal and gas on the fire consuming us all)
posted by flabdablet at 4:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.
Is she really that much of an underdog? I'll take them up on that (I put $50 on Harris). Manifesting positive energy for everyone over in the US!
posted by xdvesper at 4:37 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Is she really that much of an underdog? I'll take them up on that (I put $50 on Harris). Manifesting positive energy for everyone over in the US!
posted by xdvesper at 4:37 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I'm now back from my local polling place. They replaced the touchscreens-and-weird-box-things I didn't like last time, with a new touchscreens-and-piece-of-paper thing I also didn't like. At least there's a 50% chance that I'll never have to vote again.
posted by mittens at 4:38 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by mittens at 4:38 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Thanks for this post. Also, thank you to everyone who's been volunteering and working to make this election as safe and as fair as it can be.
posted by mixedmetaphors at 4:39 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by mixedmetaphors at 4:39 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I’ll talk to y’all tomorrow.
posted by Thorzdad at 4:39 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 4:39 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I would like to take this moment to suggest that the Democratic Party eliminate the months-long primary/caucus process. Harris has shown that we don’t need it and it’s a massive waste of money.
Start the primaries in June and wrap them up by the end of July. Nominate a candidate in August and run a national campaign to November.
God knows that’s long enough.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:40 AM on November 5 [54 favorites]
Start the primaries in June and wrap them up by the end of July. Nominate a candidate in August and run a national campaign to November.
God knows that’s long enough.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:40 AM on November 5 [54 favorites]
I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
posted by Jon_Evil at 4:40 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 4:40 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Fascism is bad. Vote accordingly. Empires are also bad. So is aristocracy. Where possible, also vote accordingly.
Good luck to us all.
Except the fascists.
posted by JohnFromGR at 4:44 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Good luck to us all.
Except the fascists.
posted by JohnFromGR at 4:44 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Godspeed, everyone. As a Canadian with strong ties to the US, I really really hope that USA does not return to the chaos and Fascism.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:46 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:46 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Hey, it only took 40 or so years for Germany to get back on its feet!
/s
posted by SoberHighland at 4:48 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
/s
posted by SoberHighland at 4:48 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Go vote(if you haven’t already), and take your friends! Then , deep breaths. I’m doing a social media and politics free zone dinner tonight from 6:30-9ish. The world will still be there when I’m done and at that point there isn’t an urgency I can make a difference on. I encourage the same.
posted by meinvt at 4:50 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by meinvt at 4:50 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
On the other side of the world, I’m going to bed. Obviously, in about seven hours, nothing will have likely been decided, but, uh, here’s hoping to waking up to good news. Best of luck, see you in the morning.
posted by Ghidorah at 4:52 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by Ghidorah at 4:52 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
looks at the bottle of meds. do i take an extra hit of anti-anxiety today. or do i just get through it with the regular dose and some nsaids. my partner is out of town. it's just me and the cats today. try to get some work done. pet the cats.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Got my ballot in the mail on October 11th, a Friday. Filled it out and dropped it off at the elections office on the following Monday. Signature verification happened two days later and the batch it was put into was counted. Had to make sure I got it done with. Now I gotta work today and that’s not gonna be the easiest thing to concentrate on. Le sigh.
posted by azpenguin at 4:58 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 4:58 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Twin Cities MeFiers- For downballot analysis I can't recommend enough Naomi Kritzer's blog (sci-fi author oft mentioned on Metafilter). Amazingly in depth and funny, I read it every election.
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:00 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:00 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Let's fucking GO!
posted by valkane at 5:01 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:01 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
"One thing is clear: No matter what the vote total shows, Trump will claim victory. Either the vote totals will show him winning, and Trump will declare the process was legitimate. Or the vote totals will show that Trump lost, and Trump will claim he was cheated again — citing partial vote totals as proof. To get prepared, Popular Information has teamed up with More Perfect Union to create an election night guide for key states, illustrating how the vote totals will fluctuate as the night progresses."
posted by mittens at 5:01 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:01 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Hot takes?
If it's a bad night: Republicans take Virginia 7th district quickly, early in the evening. Michigan looks weak mid-evening. Sherrod Brown race in Ohio is called fairly quickly for Moreno. North Carolina is called tonight for Trump, instead of stretching into absentee ballot counting tomorrow and beyond. Contested Michigan House races go mostly to Republicans, Republicans hold in contested New York House races. Iowa 1st and 3rd go to Republicans. Presidential race called with a narrow Trump victory when Pennsylvania is called in the early morning hours. Last hope for control of the House are four or five California and Arizona House districts where mail-in ballots won't be counted for several days, and Maine 2nd and Alaska which wait for a decision from the ranked-choice processes.
If it's a good night: Democrats take Virginia 7th. Georgia and North Carolina look good for Democrats. Democrats flip back House seats in New York. Democrats take Iowa 1st and 3rd. Brown wins Ohio, Tester race in Montana runs into the early morning. Democrats take back Wisconsin 3rd and Oregon 5th. No Presidential winner declared in the early morning, but either Pennsylvania or North Carolina puts Harris over the top on Wednesday. Control of the House has to wait for slow races, but it's clear that Democrats will win. Dan Osborn of Nebraska becomes the most important person in the U.S. since he now holds the balance of power in the Senate.
If it's a really good night: Harris wins Iowa. Sure, why not? Harris wins enough swing states by enough of a margin for the race to be called in her favor around midnight. Texas and Florida Senate races run into the early morning as Democrats overperform. Democrats win enough House seats in Michigan, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin-3, Oregon-5, Virginia-7, that control of the House isn't dependent on the outcome of slow-reporting California races (which flip another 4 or 5 to Democrats).
If it's a really, really, really good night: big media pundits sit on TV slackjawed, drooling and speechless when it's reported that Kansas is too close to call, as well as Nebraska 1st district (not the Omaha district, which Harris will win in any scenario, 1st is the next district over).
(What do I really think will happen? Something between the 'bad' and 'good' scenarios above. Not gonna make definite predictions with this much granularity.)
posted by gimonca at 5:02 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
If it's a bad night: Republicans take Virginia 7th district quickly, early in the evening. Michigan looks weak mid-evening. Sherrod Brown race in Ohio is called fairly quickly for Moreno. North Carolina is called tonight for Trump, instead of stretching into absentee ballot counting tomorrow and beyond. Contested Michigan House races go mostly to Republicans, Republicans hold in contested New York House races. Iowa 1st and 3rd go to Republicans. Presidential race called with a narrow Trump victory when Pennsylvania is called in the early morning hours. Last hope for control of the House are four or five California and Arizona House districts where mail-in ballots won't be counted for several days, and Maine 2nd and Alaska which wait for a decision from the ranked-choice processes.
If it's a good night: Democrats take Virginia 7th. Georgia and North Carolina look good for Democrats. Democrats flip back House seats in New York. Democrats take Iowa 1st and 3rd. Brown wins Ohio, Tester race in Montana runs into the early morning. Democrats take back Wisconsin 3rd and Oregon 5th. No Presidential winner declared in the early morning, but either Pennsylvania or North Carolina puts Harris over the top on Wednesday. Control of the House has to wait for slow races, but it's clear that Democrats will win. Dan Osborn of Nebraska becomes the most important person in the U.S. since he now holds the balance of power in the Senate.
If it's a really good night: Harris wins Iowa. Sure, why not? Harris wins enough swing states by enough of a margin for the race to be called in her favor around midnight. Texas and Florida Senate races run into the early morning as Democrats overperform. Democrats win enough House seats in Michigan, Iowa, New York, Wisconsin-3, Oregon-5, Virginia-7, that control of the House isn't dependent on the outcome of slow-reporting California races (which flip another 4 or 5 to Democrats).
If it's a really, really, really good night: big media pundits sit on TV slackjawed, drooling and speechless when it's reported that Kansas is too close to call, as well as Nebraska 1st district (not the Omaha district, which Harris will win in any scenario, 1st is the next district over).
(What do I really think will happen? Something between the 'bad' and 'good' scenarios above. Not gonna make definite predictions with this much granularity.)
posted by gimonca at 5:02 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
I'm channeling my anxiety into making up silly little songs of appreciation to thank all the Americans who have already voted Harris, or who are doing so today. Seriously thank you so much. You got this! Love and solidarity from Canada.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:06 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:06 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
My 70+ year old mother, who has never done or said anything political in my life, sent me video last night from the Kamala rally in Philly.
posted by funkaspuck at 5:07 AM on November 5 [55 favorites]
posted by funkaspuck at 5:07 AM on November 5 [55 favorites]
Let’s fuckin’ gooooooooooo
Voted early (in person) last week. I don’t trust the polls, I don’t trust the fuckers that own the media, they don’t make money unless we’re glued to the screens thinking it’s a horse race. I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office. After seeing the clear decline in whatever mental capacity he once had. After fucking Dobbs, fer Christ sakes.
It ain’t over til it’s over but I’m not going to be preemptively wallowing in misery.
posted by caution live frogs at 5:07 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]
Voted early (in person) last week. I don’t trust the polls, I don’t trust the fuckers that own the media, they don’t make money unless we’re glued to the screens thinking it’s a horse race. I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office. After seeing the clear decline in whatever mental capacity he once had. After fucking Dobbs, fer Christ sakes.
It ain’t over til it’s over but I’m not going to be preemptively wallowing in misery.
posted by caution live frogs at 5:07 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]
I put out a bag of Doritos for Kamala last night. You know, like cookies for Santa.
posted by valkane at 5:09 AM on November 5 [45 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:09 AM on November 5 [45 favorites]
I was one of the few on MetaFilter who, in 2016, predicted a Trump victory. For some reason taking a lot of flak from MeFites for suggesting he'd win Wisconsin ('What would a limey know about US politics? Stick to cricket.' was one message).
This time round am predicting, after the dust settles, a comfortable Electoral College vote victory for Kamala, and a popular vote margin of 2.5m to 3m votes in her favour.
posted by Wordshore at 5:15 AM on November 5 [65 favorites]
This time round am predicting, after the dust settles, a comfortable Electoral College vote victory for Kamala, and a popular vote margin of 2.5m to 3m votes in her favour.
posted by Wordshore at 5:15 AM on November 5 [65 favorites]
For people who have already voted - check your ballot to make sure it was accepted.
posted by coffeecat at 5:16 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 5:16 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
In 2016 I was in the MetaFilter MST3k club chat room when the shit went down, and we were Gobsmacked (and I mean that in the most British way possible, wordshore). We were stumbling around like we had got kidney-punched. 2020 we were elated. And I got hope for this year. Maybe I'll see you watching bad sci-fi on the interwebs.
posted by valkane at 5:25 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:25 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I know 2016 traumatized everyone, but the circumstances are real different this time round. Trump was actually funny back then—still crude and horrible, but funny—and he's got nothing left in the tank, now. Back then, he could at least plausibly for some people seem like an agent of change for the better; now, everyone knows he's a shitty failure. His rallies are half-empty even in smaller venues, and just like she said in the debate, people are bored and leave early. He's the butt of the jokes now, not the jokester. He has zero GOTV not run by obvious scammers; she's got a next-level operation.
Clinton didn't take campaigning seriously, and Harris does. She's run a campaign that's close to letter-perfect, whereas Clinton was falling down and dogged by scandal. Clinton had been the subject of 25 years of hate-propaganda, and Harris has not. Clinton had the screeching Berners after her with knives, whereas all Harris has is the Gaza/Stein voters, who are odious but way less numerous and everyone now knows what a piece of shit Stein is and how she cost Clinton the election. Props to Saint Bernie himself, who I personally loathe but is doing the gods' work this time round. Clinton had members of her own party turning away from her; Harris does not: even though she's to the right of the center of the coalition, she's got zero defectors from the Blue Dog side nor from the Ardent Progressives: props to AOC, who I also don't care for but who I acknowledge is really quite good at her job.
Republicans lined up behind Trump in 2016; now, you've got a whole cottage industry of Republicans for Harris and not even a peep of the reverse. It's totally okay now if you're a conformist conservative to leave the top of the ballot blank or vote for Harris: you've got permission from Dick Fucking Cheney FFS. But Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. Nobody's complacent about it, either—and more than any one single thing, complacency is what killed us in 2016.
He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer. His most dedicated fanbase is old and have a poor history of taking care of themselves. 13M people have died and slightly more come of age since 2020, and statistically, that's a shift in Harris' favor, even if some of those are young white men poisoned by Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate—but they're also a really unreliable voting demographic. Show me more than a token few people who voted for Biden and now want Trump back. The only thing in this whole election that's in his favor is white guy v black woman, and while that does move the needle somewhat, I don't think it's nearly enough. Look at the absolute legions of pissed-off women going to the polls this time: a lot of them, especially the younger ones, didn't show up for Clinton, but you can bet your ass they're here this time.
The polls are skewed in Trump's favor because 3/4 of them are partisan hit jobs and/or use suuuper questionable methodology. 538 is mathematical malpractice. Harris hasn't really pushed back on this because she knows complacency kills: Dems are fickle and won't show up if they don't think it's important, like in 2016.
Most importantly, watch what the campaigns have been doing for the last two weeks. Harris is bouncing all over the swing states, with fun parties and famous surrogates, even making a show of force into Texas. Trump has been holding sparsely-attended rallies in North Carolina, trying to shore up that state (which he's going to lose because of the terrible Republican governor candidate dragging him down) because if he loses it, he has very little chance of winning the EC even if he does win Pennsylvania, which I think is very unlikely because of Harris' ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot in Arizona, and abortion rights have won huge ever since Dobbs. Trump's campaign is acting like they know how shitty their internal polling is, and Harris' has been doing the opposite—and the internal polling is way better than the shit you see on 538.
I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:33 AM on November 5 [110 favorites]
Clinton didn't take campaigning seriously, and Harris does. She's run a campaign that's close to letter-perfect, whereas Clinton was falling down and dogged by scandal. Clinton had been the subject of 25 years of hate-propaganda, and Harris has not. Clinton had the screeching Berners after her with knives, whereas all Harris has is the Gaza/Stein voters, who are odious but way less numerous and everyone now knows what a piece of shit Stein is and how she cost Clinton the election. Props to Saint Bernie himself, who I personally loathe but is doing the gods' work this time round. Clinton had members of her own party turning away from her; Harris does not: even though she's to the right of the center of the coalition, she's got zero defectors from the Blue Dog side nor from the Ardent Progressives: props to AOC, who I also don't care for but who I acknowledge is really quite good at her job.
Republicans lined up behind Trump in 2016; now, you've got a whole cottage industry of Republicans for Harris and not even a peep of the reverse. It's totally okay now if you're a conformist conservative to leave the top of the ballot blank or vote for Harris: you've got permission from Dick Fucking Cheney FFS. But Dems will crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. Nobody's complacent about it, either—and more than any one single thing, complacency is what killed us in 2016.
He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer. His most dedicated fanbase is old and have a poor history of taking care of themselves. 13M people have died and slightly more come of age since 2020, and statistically, that's a shift in Harris' favor, even if some of those are young white men poisoned by Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate—but they're also a really unreliable voting demographic. Show me more than a token few people who voted for Biden and now want Trump back. The only thing in this whole election that's in his favor is white guy v black woman, and while that does move the needle somewhat, I don't think it's nearly enough. Look at the absolute legions of pissed-off women going to the polls this time: a lot of them, especially the younger ones, didn't show up for Clinton, but you can bet your ass they're here this time.
The polls are skewed in Trump's favor because 3/4 of them are partisan hit jobs and/or use suuuper questionable methodology. 538 is mathematical malpractice. Harris hasn't really pushed back on this because she knows complacency kills: Dems are fickle and won't show up if they don't think it's important, like in 2016.
Most importantly, watch what the campaigns have been doing for the last two weeks. Harris is bouncing all over the swing states, with fun parties and famous surrogates, even making a show of force into Texas. Trump has been holding sparsely-attended rallies in North Carolina, trying to shore up that state (which he's going to lose because of the terrible Republican governor candidate dragging him down) because if he loses it, he has very little chance of winning the EC even if he does win Pennsylvania, which I think is very unlikely because of Harris' ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot in Arizona, and abortion rights have won huge ever since Dobbs. Trump's campaign is acting like they know how shitty their internal polling is, and Harris' has been doing the opposite—and the internal polling is way better than the shit you see on 538.
I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:33 AM on November 5 [110 favorites]
I saw on Reddit (I know...) that Dixville Notch tied 3-3. What that post also said, and what I cannot find corroborating evidence for, is that in D.N. there are 4 registered republicans and 2 registered independents. I do know as a fact that in the primary all 6 voted for Haley. So maybe this shift is a good thing if it's real!
posted by Snowishberlin at 5:37 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by Snowishberlin at 5:37 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office.
I hope you're right, but I don't have the faith in people you do. No matter how stupid you think people are, you're underestimating the capacity of people in large groups to exceed your expectations.
I really hope you're right, not only because I fear for the people of the US if you're not, but also because the outsized influence US politics has on the rest of the world means my family and I are impacted by the decision the American people are making. Please don't let us down.
posted by dg at 5:44 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I hope you're right, but I don't have the faith in people you do. No matter how stupid you think people are, you're underestimating the capacity of people in large groups to exceed your expectations.
I really hope you're right, not only because I fear for the people of the US if you're not, but also because the outsized influence US politics has on the rest of the world means my family and I are impacted by the decision the American people are making. Please don't let us down.
posted by dg at 5:44 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I have decided that whichever state is the first to be called for Harris will win the title of First Past the Putz.
posted by nickmark at 5:48 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by nickmark at 5:48 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
I hate that this is on the sidebar. Hate it. You are shoving in our faces the one subject that this site has managed to implement a topical filter for, on the worst day for it to happen. This is obviously a good post, but no one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election, especially if they didn't want it, double especially if they have the USPolitics filter implemented.
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:49 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:49 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I saw on Reddit (I know...) that Dixville Notch tied 3-3. What that post also said, and what I cannot find corroborating evidence for, is that in D.N. there are 4 registered republicans and 2 registered independents. I do know as a fact that in the primary all 6 voted for Haley. So maybe this shift is a good thing if it's real!
I watched the vote this morning. Not only is the above information correct, there was one addition interesting piece- how they voted for the top of the ticket vs down ballot. The 3 Trump votes were straight (R) tickets, then there was 1 straight (D) ticket. The remaining two votes for Harris were Harris for the top of the ticket and (R) down ballot.
I am very interested if this is indicative of anything…
posted by susiswimmer at 5:52 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
I watched the vote this morning. Not only is the above information correct, there was one addition interesting piece- how they voted for the top of the ticket vs down ballot. The 3 Trump votes were straight (R) tickets, then there was 1 straight (D) ticket. The remaining two votes for Harris were Harris for the top of the ticket and (R) down ballot.
I am very interested if this is indicative of anything…
posted by susiswimmer at 5:52 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
no one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election
I'm on Metafilter and I'm fine with it. The number of responses this thread's already getting suggests I'm not alone.
Also: I like this week's New Yorker cover.
posted by Paul Slade at 6:00 AM on November 5 [34 favorites]
I'm on Metafilter and I'm fine with it. The number of responses this thread's already getting suggests I'm not alone.
Also: I like this week's New Yorker cover.
posted by Paul Slade at 6:00 AM on November 5 [34 favorites]
I refuse to believe people are that fucking stupid and blind after seeing what happened the last time this bastard was in office.
In 2012, the Daily Mirror famously asked the post-US-election question "How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?" And my honest thought was "Sounds a bit low, actually."
And it was.
posted by delfin at 6:04 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
In 2012, the Daily Mirror famously asked the post-US-election question "How can 59,054,087 people be so DUMB?" And my honest thought was "Sounds a bit low, actually."
And it was.
posted by delfin at 6:04 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I woke up, put my pants on, and voted.
I reminded myself about coming back from the Caribbean a week after the inauguration in 2017 where I'd ignored politics all week. Turning a corner at the airport into a throng asking if you need a lawyer. I wrote it up into a comment at the time. Not going back to that.
Anyhow, I stuck my I Voted sticker in my wallet with the rest of them.
posted by Catblack at 6:05 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I reminded myself about coming back from the Caribbean a week after the inauguration in 2017 where I'd ignored politics all week. Turning a corner at the airport into a throng asking if you need a lawyer. I wrote it up into a comment at the time. Not going back to that.
Anyhow, I stuck my I Voted sticker in my wallet with the rest of them.
posted by Catblack at 6:05 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
A few notes from PA-7:
We canvassed on Sunday. When we got to the Harris office we learned that there were five buses of volunteers spreading out throughout our county. We door knocked and didn’t get a ton of hits but everyone we did see said they would vote and boy had there been a lot of outreach that weekend.
We early voted two weeks ago but many of our friends did not. There are lines out the door at the college polling station, our polling station a few blocks away, and the other polling stations too in our neighborhood too. A neighbor I have always thought of as on the fence politically has a full suite of Dem signs on their lawn.
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic. I’ve been here before, in 2016 and in 2004. But I am allowing myself the smallest possible amount of hope.
posted by thecaddy at 6:06 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
We canvassed on Sunday. When we got to the Harris office we learned that there were five buses of volunteers spreading out throughout our county. We door knocked and didn’t get a ton of hits but everyone we did see said they would vote and boy had there been a lot of outreach that weekend.
We early voted two weeks ago but many of our friends did not. There are lines out the door at the college polling station, our polling station a few blocks away, and the other polling stations too in our neighborhood too. A neighbor I have always thought of as on the fence politically has a full suite of Dem signs on their lawn.
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic. I’ve been here before, in 2016 and in 2004. But I am allowing myself the smallest possible amount of hope.
posted by thecaddy at 6:06 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
put my pants on
thank you for your service :)
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 AM on November 5 [48 favorites]
thank you for your service :)
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 AM on November 5 [48 favorites]
Multiple counties in IL are unable to vote due to vendor software/hardware failing right after polls opened. Vendor reportedly is not answering phones. If this affects states that are actually in play, it's going to get real interesting.
posted by SaltySalticid at 6:17 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by SaltySalticid at 6:17 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
After canvassing in 2020 and 2022, Mr Machine has been out volunteering for the Dems almost every weekend since May, and just finished a run of super-full days of training and de-briefing canvassers at our local field office in Philadelphia.
A few points of anecdata:
1. People are coming in from all over the country to help. He had people in from California and New York and even some state representatives from Rhode Island.
2. People are willing to do the work. At this point, the gentrified neighborhoods in our key turnout city in a swing state are burned-over districts, but the Harris ground operation is sending people into areas that Biden's didn't. They're canvassing in not just the traditional areas full of upper-middle class, well-educated white Dem voters, but in working class communities of color.
3. People are responding. Canvassing is usually a game of inches, but in the new canvassing areas, the field office where my husband volunteered was making bounds and strides. There were people who didn't have a plan, but now do. There were people who were undecided, but are now voting Harris. A canvassing group knocked on the door of a very sweet older woman who really wanted to vote for Harris, but was frightened because she had read about some of the violence being carried out at polling places by MAGA supporters, so one of the volunteers from California offered to personally come to her door at 9 am on Election Day and walk her to the polling place, and she enthusiastically took him up on it. Maybe she is even voting right now!
I'm really proud of Mr Machine, and I'll be so proud of my city if, once again, bad things happen to Donald Trump here.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:18 AM on November 5 [67 favorites]
A few points of anecdata:
1. People are coming in from all over the country to help. He had people in from California and New York and even some state representatives from Rhode Island.
2. People are willing to do the work. At this point, the gentrified neighborhoods in our key turnout city in a swing state are burned-over districts, but the Harris ground operation is sending people into areas that Biden's didn't. They're canvassing in not just the traditional areas full of upper-middle class, well-educated white Dem voters, but in working class communities of color.
3. People are responding. Canvassing is usually a game of inches, but in the new canvassing areas, the field office where my husband volunteered was making bounds and strides. There were people who didn't have a plan, but now do. There were people who were undecided, but are now voting Harris. A canvassing group knocked on the door of a very sweet older woman who really wanted to vote for Harris, but was frightened because she had read about some of the violence being carried out at polling places by MAGA supporters, so one of the volunteers from California offered to personally come to her door at 9 am on Election Day and walk her to the polling place, and she enthusiastically took him up on it. Maybe she is even voting right now!
I'm really proud of Mr Machine, and I'll be so proud of my city if, once again, bad things happen to Donald Trump here.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:18 AM on November 5 [67 favorites]
I'm listening to the BBC coverage now, and they're speaking about how Philadelphia is where a lot of the big shit is gonna go down because it has the most electoral college votes in play among the swing states.
It reminded me of 2020 when I had the thought that Philadelphia is kind of a "restore to factory settings" button on our government.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
It reminded me of 2020 when I had the thought that Philadelphia is kind of a "restore to factory settings" button on our government.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:19 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Please let me stop thinking about Tr*mp again.
I'll settle for thinking of him only in the context of: Trial, conviction, sentencing, prison; rinse and repeat.
posted by Gelatin at 6:20 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
I'll settle for thinking of him only in the context of: Trial, conviction, sentencing, prison; rinse and repeat.
posted by Gelatin at 6:20 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Mostly nervous today about the potential for isolated incidents of violence and coordinated incidents of fuckery. But mostly optimistic about the outcome. Add this article about the Kansas survey (not poll) to the hope-reading you do to get by today. (Doesn't predict a win there but makes today feel very weird in the let's fucking go sense.)
posted by kensington314 at 6:20 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 6:20 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Lines have been out the door in St. Louis City and County since early voting started on October 22nd. We went on Friday the 25th, first thing in the morning, and still waiting an hour to vote. The line was quiet and pleasant, the library staff who were hosting the polling place had everything down to a routine, and the poll workers were pleasant, if not excited. They'd call out any time they had a first time voter, and everyone would clap and cheer. Excellent vibes, tbh.
I don't know how this is going to go, I'm terrified, but it feels different somehow.
Notes:
- I work at a polling place. I should go see how things are going, if the rain lets up.
- The library staff were running a side poll: Butterfingers vs. Reeces Peanut Butter Cups. I voted correctly: Butterfingers.
- Man, I love libraries so much.
posted by gc at 6:20 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
I don't know how this is going to go, I'm terrified, but it feels different somehow.
Notes:
- I work at a polling place. I should go see how things are going, if the rain lets up.
- The library staff were running a side poll: Butterfingers vs. Reeces Peanut Butter Cups. I voted correctly: Butterfingers.
- Man, I love libraries so much.
posted by gc at 6:20 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
Candidly I'm a wreck and I'm trying to stay distracted but struggling to focus. I hope everyone is taking care of themselves as best they are able whatever happens.
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:23 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:23 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I like most of the rest of the world would not like to think about trump* ever ever again after this election. and I'm hoping it'll be over when it's over but history suggests otherwise.
In the meantime, I'll be outside the polls making the 30% Democrats here in my red red part of SW Virginia feel welcome while they vote, I'll be remembering the Republicans who came in to our Dems office asking for signs, and the neighbors who have told me that they have never voted for a Democrat but this time they are.
*except for the trial, conviction, sentencing especially for January 6th and Georgia.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:24 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
In the meantime, I'll be outside the polls making the 30% Democrats here in my red red part of SW Virginia feel welcome while they vote, I'll be remembering the Republicans who came in to our Dems office asking for signs, and the neighbors who have told me that they have never voted for a Democrat but this time they are.
*except for the trial, conviction, sentencing especially for January 6th and Georgia.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:24 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I hate that this is on the sidebar
For anyone who would rather not see the sidebar (today, or just generally) try the My Mefi view for a sidebar-free experience.
posted by taz at 6:25 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
For anyone who would rather not see the sidebar (today, or just generally) try the My Mefi view for a sidebar-free experience.
posted by taz at 6:25 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
May the best woman win.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:25 AM on November 5 [65 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:25 AM on November 5 [65 favorites]
>that fucking stupid and blind
this 2004 CNN Exit Poll opened my eyes 20 years ago now.
"VOTE BY INCOME" showed a smooth gradient of support, po' people lean (D) 60+% and upper middle class lean (R) 60+%
"WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?" while "only" ~1/4th the vote they were Bush's strongest bloc (along with billionaires, not polled) at ~80%. (This is why Elog was bending the knee at his nazi rally last night).
on the "ABORTION SHOULD BE..." question, 40% wanted to restrict it, same 40% were against same-sex couples
We've got a 40% vs 40% cold civil war in this country, no matter how today goes. Dems have to retake the House, Senate, and most likely SCOTUS for them to effect positive change here going forward.
posted by torokunai at 6:26 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
this 2004 CNN Exit Poll opened my eyes 20 years ago now.
"VOTE BY INCOME" showed a smooth gradient of support, po' people lean (D) 60+% and upper middle class lean (R) 60+%
"WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?" while "only" ~1/4th the vote they were Bush's strongest bloc (along with billionaires, not polled) at ~80%. (This is why Elog was bending the knee at his nazi rally last night).
on the "ABORTION SHOULD BE..." question, 40% wanted to restrict it, same 40% were against same-sex couples
We've got a 40% vs 40% cold civil war in this country, no matter how today goes. Dems have to retake the House, Senate, and most likely SCOTUS for them to effect positive change here going forward.
posted by torokunai at 6:26 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Remember that many states have abortion-related proposals on the ballot in statewide elections. Notably, Florida, Missouri and South Dakota, where the outcome of the election could overturn Republican anti-abortion laws. And also in Arizona and Nevada, where abortion-related ballot initiatives could affect turnout in Presidential swing states.
posted by gimonca at 6:27 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:27 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
checking the very comprehensive list of tags, we have "Taiwan" and "Ukraine" and we are still evidently aspiring to general concern about "HumanRights".
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia".
posted by busted_crayons at 6:28 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia".
posted by busted_crayons at 6:28 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
I'm listening to the BBC coverage now, and they're speaking about how Philadelphia is where a lot of the big shit is gonna go down because it has the most electoral college votes in play among the swing states.
Philadelphia DA says "F Around and Find Out" to election-day interference
posted by delfin at 6:29 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Philadelphia DA says "F Around and Find Out" to election-day interference
posted by delfin at 6:29 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
In New York the proposal in play is an Equal Rights Amendment. The vote-yes side has been pitching it as a "protecting abortion rights" thing, and the vote-no side has been trotting out the usual transphobic nonsense.
NYC also has a handful of other proposals Mayor Adams tried to glomp on there but screw that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:30 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
NYC also has a handful of other proposals Mayor Adams tried to glomp on there but screw that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:30 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
No one on MetaFilter needed a reminder, of any kind, associated with this election, especially if they didn't want it
To my very bones, I understand the emotional appeal of simply trying not to think about this election any more than necessary today.
But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:30 AM on November 5 [85 favorites]
To my very bones, I understand the emotional appeal of simply trying not to think about this election any more than necessary today.
But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:30 AM on November 5 [85 favorites]
What I'd really like to see is a repeat of the incident in 2012, when the Fox News election office called Ohio for Obama, and Karl Rove left the broadcast desk and went storming down the hall to yell at them for reporting reality.
posted by gimonca at 6:30 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:30 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
For all of you who are going to be glued to the news cycle today: remember to be kind to yourself.
I am opting out--in fact, I am likely to not be on the Blue after this comment as the US election infects everything on this site, it seems--of putting myself in a state of high anxiety. (This is progress for me! Thanks, therapy!) I leave the office at 1 pm; at home, I will be rolling a nice fat joint, putting on my serotonin playlist, and making a cheesecake because heck, I have not made a cheesecake in ages. I have asked friends and family to not text me about election stuff because I have voted and now it's out of my hands. (It was never in my hands, tbh.) I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Shepherd still thinks I should renounce my citizenship if Horrible Human gets in again, but I still have family back home so that complicates things for me.
Anyway. Be kind to yourself and others today. It's gonna be tense.
posted by Kitteh at 6:31 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I am opting out--in fact, I am likely to not be on the Blue after this comment as the US election infects everything on this site, it seems--of putting myself in a state of high anxiety. (This is progress for me! Thanks, therapy!) I leave the office at 1 pm; at home, I will be rolling a nice fat joint, putting on my serotonin playlist, and making a cheesecake because heck, I have not made a cheesecake in ages. I have asked friends and family to not text me about election stuff because I have voted and now it's out of my hands. (It was never in my hands, tbh.) I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Shepherd still thinks I should renounce my citizenship if Horrible Human gets in again, but I still have family back home so that complicates things for me.
Anyway. Be kind to yourself and others today. It's gonna be tense.
posted by Kitteh at 6:31 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I have the dread I only knew on Report Card Day. We're going to get a lot of answers tonight, and a lot of them I'm just plain not going to like.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:33 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:33 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Did the thing, feeling good. Get her done.
posted by chainlinkspiral at 6:41 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by chainlinkspiral at 6:41 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
For all of you who are going to be glued to the news cycle today: remember to be kind to yourself.
And to add a little to that: there's a fairly high probablility that a lot of stuff will be undecided late this evening. Give yourself permission to go to bed and get a decent night's sleep.
posted by gimonca at 6:42 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
The thing about the "most important election of our time" thing is that while it is annoying when we say this every time, it's fucking horrible when it stops being said each time and finally rests at one particular election.
Ask Hungary. Theirs was 2010.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:45 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
Ask Hungary. Theirs was 2010.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:45 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
Went to vote around 8:30 am in Queens this morning and for whatever stroke of luck, there wasn't anybody else from my voting district group so I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. Some of the other registration tables had short lines, but it was almost eerily quiet. A much better experience than my boss, who waited for 55 minutes for early voting last Friday in Long Island.
Last election cycle, I'll never forget when the election was finally called the weekend after. We were walking around Manhattan, and all of the sudden there were happy yells and screams erupting from open windows and on the street as the word got out that Trump lost. There was this amazing electric manic energy that erupted, with people spontaneously partying and dancing in the streets for the rest of the day. It was amazing, one of the brightest moments in years...
I so look forward to this again...
posted by rambling wanderlust at 6:46 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Last election cycle, I'll never forget when the election was finally called the weekend after. We were walking around Manhattan, and all of the sudden there were happy yells and screams erupting from open windows and on the street as the word got out that Trump lost. There was this amazing electric manic energy that erupted, with people spontaneously partying and dancing in the streets for the rest of the day. It was amazing, one of the brightest moments in years...
I so look forward to this again...
posted by rambling wanderlust at 6:46 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Billionaire Trump supporter Bernard Marcus has died.
posted by mittens at 6:47 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
posted by mittens at 6:47 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
posted by invincible summer at 6:48 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
posted by invincible summer at 6:48 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
I mean, the most important election of our lifetime was 2016, we just fucked it up.
posted by rikschell at 6:49 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 6:49 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
posted by rikschell at 6:50 AM on November 5 [41 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 6:50 AM on November 5 [41 favorites]
But if that's your goal, what you want to do is turn off all of your devices, not wag your finger every time you see the subject come up. Your finger is gonna get tired and it still won't make a difference.
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
You are missing the specific point I was trying to make. Many people here want to discuss the election. That's fine, of course! I hate the idea that this should rise up in importance to the level of blowing through the one (1) automated guardrail we have in place here. The rest of it's subjective, tagging, mod judgment, etc. I specifically chose to visit this site today because of the guardrail, as opposed to the rest of my social media apps, which are temporarily gathered together in a folder entitled "PAIN." (English, not French)
That said, you're probably right in a general sense. I should have known better than to come here today.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:52 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
It's a pretty big deal. People on a discussion site are gonna discuss it. Give yourself permission to opt out, and that's all you can do.
You are missing the specific point I was trying to make. Many people here want to discuss the election. That's fine, of course! I hate the idea that this should rise up in importance to the level of blowing through the one (1) automated guardrail we have in place here. The rest of it's subjective, tagging, mod judgment, etc. I specifically chose to visit this site today because of the guardrail, as opposed to the rest of my social media apps, which are temporarily gathered together in a folder entitled "PAIN." (English, not French)
That said, you're probably right in a general sense. I should have known better than to come here today.
posted by cupcakeninja at 6:52 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
In retrospect, the mistake of 2000 was accepting a partisan SCOTUS handing the election to Dubya on dubious grounds. I doubt the same trick will work this year, though, much as Thomas and Alito (and their spouses) would like to appoint Trump again.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
In retrospect, the mistake of 2000 was accepting a partisan SCOTUS handing the election to Dubya on dubious grounds. I doubt the same trick will work this year, though, much as Thomas and Alito (and their spouses) would like to appoint Trump again.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.
Trump is a meme stock. Be like that dude from Milwaukee who goes down to Chicago bars and gets all the Packers/Bears action he can get.
posted by whuppy at 6:54 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Trump is a meme stock. Be like that dude from Milwaukee who goes down to Chicago bars and gets all the Packers/Bears action he can get.
posted by whuppy at 6:54 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Although maybe it was 2000 and we sure could have done better then, too.
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
posted by mittens at 6:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
posted by mittens at 6:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Well, I guess that's it, and now… **Glances off to the side** Apparently the UK has its own special message. **Takes a piece of paper from the UK, unfolds it* Huh, it's a drawing of… what, exactly? *Stares quizzically, turns it ninety degrees, drops the piece of paper with a startled look**
Look, we elected Boris 'pants on fire' Johnson cos we really wanted our hard-as-nails Brexit and making the immigration system even crueller, followed by Liz 'Lettuce' Truss , who managed to impoverish basically everybody. It's possible Nigel 'Trump's lickspittle' Farage could hold the balance of power at the next election. We've seen some shit over this last decade, man, and the new lot aren't actually changing much cos we're flat broke, apart from the super-rich who are coining it in, of course.
*stares off into the distance, winces*
Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge. Please? You deserve so much better.
Wishing you all the best with the uhh, incoming hellscape/coup attempt to deliver said hellscape. We're all rooting for you!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:55 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Look, we elected Boris 'pants on fire' Johnson cos we really wanted our hard-as-nails Brexit and making the immigration system even crueller, followed by Liz 'Lettuce' Truss , who managed to impoverish basically everybody. It's possible Nigel 'Trump's lickspittle' Farage could hold the balance of power at the next election. We've seen some shit over this last decade, man, and the new lot aren't actually changing much cos we're flat broke, apart from the super-rich who are coining it in, of course.
*stares off into the distance, winces*
Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge. Please? You deserve so much better.
Wishing you all the best with the uhh, incoming hellscape/coup attempt to deliver said hellscape. We're all rooting for you!
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:55 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
From the POV that good campaigns should win and bad ones lose, I just want gravity to start working again.
posted by whuppy at 6:58 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by whuppy at 6:58 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
It's an historical accident that this is not a straight run-off between two candidates. If it were, then many candidates would have already competed in a first round, and if none of them got the majority vote (50% +1), then the top two candidates survived to the last round. This would have given the US a robust multi-party system and drastically reduced the negative campaigning to a brief few weeks between only two candidates. The last round is where voters would confidently know they have already contributed to the polling method for their candidate in the first round and now can vote against a candidate in the last round without confusion or regret.
posted by Brian B. at 7:03 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 7:03 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Everything else aside, I look forward to receiving fewer election-related text messages starting tomorrow. But maybe I'm being naive.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 7:10 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 7:10 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Champaign County, Illinois was one of the counties affected by some kind of outage. Reports are that it's back up and running and officials are working to extend hours. Champaign County is home to the University of Illinois (55,000+ students).
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:11 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:11 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
We're about to start getting either "Help sponsor the legal effort to protect the legitimate results" donation requests or "we have to organize to hold back this incoming shitshow" donation requests.
The texts/emails are not going to stop.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
The texts/emails are not going to stop.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:13 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
or manipulate
posted by chavenet at 7:13 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
or manipulate
posted by chavenet at 7:13 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I've been holding back some donation cash to help the post-election legal effort(s).
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:14 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:14 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:14 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:14 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
“They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. Andthey absolutely will not stop… ever, until you change your number!”
posted by TwoWordReview at 7:15 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by TwoWordReview at 7:15 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
Fox livestream for those of us who also prefer a nice clear view of the oncoming train's headlight.
posted by flabdablet at 7:15 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
This sentence speaks to my very soul.
Fox livestream for those of us who also prefer a nice clear view of the oncoming train's headlight.
posted by flabdablet at 7:15 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
It took me 10 minutes from the time I left my front door to walking out of the polling place with my "I Voted!" sticker, and that includes surrendering my mail-in ballot to the confused poll workers who had no record of me having a mail-in ballot. (This is an issue about which I am in contact with election officials.) Everyone seems to be in a good mood and I had the opportunity to pass through the remains of last night's Harris / Walz rally on the parkway during my morning run, which was cool. I love that about running - you can do it almost anywhere!
From this point forward it is going to be an extreme challenge to stay focused at work and get anything done.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:18 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
From this point forward it is going to be an extreme challenge to stay focused at work and get anything done.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:18 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
My local betting agency has 2.5x payout for Harris, 1.6x payout for Trump.
The only thing you can deduce from that is that people who put money down at betting agencies are more likely to be Trump supporters.
posted by vacapinta at 7:18 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The only thing you can deduce from that is that people who put money down at betting agencies are more likely to be Trump supporters.
posted by vacapinta at 7:18 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Everything else aside, I look forward to receiving fewer election-related text messages starting tomorrow. But maybe I'm being naive.
Don't you know! We're only four years from the most important election of our lifetime? Donate now!
(Also the midterms, but whatevs).
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Don't you know! We're only four years from the most important election of our lifetime? Donate now!
(Also the midterms, but whatevs).
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Dr. Mrs. TheKaijuCommuter likes to tease me about how slow my ballot bubbling is, but in my defense, we had like six local bonds to vote on this year.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:22 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:22 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Not to, like, try to do history in the thread, but the 1992 democratic primary really charted the course that we are still on (or, the rut we are still trying to crawl out of, if you prefer).
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
My bet is that mittens means that in the face of the popularity of the incumbent Bush I, the Dems decided to go with the centrist Clinton, who then spent a good chunk of his administration implementing relatively conservative and business-friendly fiscal policies, and doing things that would alienate a lot of white blue-collar voters, who had been a core part of the Dem base until then.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:24 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I'm rather curious as to what you mean, here. I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
My bet is that mittens means that in the face of the popularity of the incumbent Bush I, the Dems decided to go with the centrist Clinton, who then spent a good chunk of his administration implementing relatively conservative and business-friendly fiscal policies, and doing things that would alienate a lot of white blue-collar voters, who had been a core part of the Dem base until then.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:24 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
This week is a marathon, not a sprint.
Drink water, take your meds, and...
posted by PistachioRoux at 7:24 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Drink water, take your meds, and...
posted by PistachioRoux at 7:24 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
He killed a million of his own followers with COVID: blue voters wore masks and did not inject themselves with bleach or horse dewormer.
I dunno, if the west coast polls close tonight and there hasn't been a winner declared, I'm not ruling anything out.
posted by Mayor West at 7:24 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I dunno, if the west coast polls close tonight and there hasn't been a winner declared, I'm not ruling anything out.
posted by Mayor West at 7:24 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Sometimes I hate being aware.
posted by grubi at 7:25 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by grubi at 7:25 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Good luck, everyone. I can’t participate in the thread today. The stress has been already too much the last few weeks. Doomscrolling is bad. So take this as a reminder to disconnect when things seem bleak today. Take a walk, be free.
Mental health resources are available, and if the worst comes to pass:
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours
And remember not to blame each other for any bad tidings. The only people responsible have an (R) after their names.
See you on the far side, hopefully with huge grins.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:26 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Mental health resources are available, and if the worst comes to pass:
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Languages: English, Spanish
Hours: Available 24 hours
And remember not to blame each other for any bad tidings. The only people responsible have an (R) after their names.
See you on the far side, hopefully with huge grins.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:26 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
The elementary school in Minneapolis where I vote was holding a bake sale for the people in the voting line, which was absolutely brilliant. They did a great job on the "I Voted" cookies.
Only problem is that the line was moving so quickly and efficiently, you didn't have that captive audience for very long next to the cookies and brownies and things.
posted by gimonca at 7:27 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Only problem is that the line was moving so quickly and efficiently, you didn't have that captive audience for very long next to the cookies and brownies and things.
posted by gimonca at 7:27 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
This year I've been throwing on nf audiobooks during the workday and I'm listening to The Destructionists this week. I could have chosen something more distracting, but it came up available at my library the day I was finishing the last book, so I queued it up.
Since my dad has been a hardcore Newt Gingrich fanboy as far back as I can remember, this book is doing a better job highlighting my own personal history of disappointment than setting dire presentments for the day. Hopefully.
posted by phunniemee at 7:27 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Since my dad has been a hardcore Newt Gingrich fanboy as far back as I can remember, this book is doing a better job highlighting my own personal history of disappointment than setting dire presentments for the day. Hopefully.
posted by phunniemee at 7:27 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Just uh, don't do what we did and put the mad right wing in charge.
What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst. Folks, the world is in trouble. I am caught up in this hype and it's shitty. The Most Etc. Yes let's defeat that fucking scumbag and never hear that voice as soon as possible. Meanwhile: billionaires, Everything Else, and the intractable tides of collapse.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:29 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst. Folks, the world is in trouble. I am caught up in this hype and it's shitty. The Most Etc. Yes let's defeat that fucking scumbag and never hear that voice as soon as possible. Meanwhile: billionaires, Everything Else, and the intractable tides of collapse.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:29 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I voted early this year, and it felt... different somehow. Maybe because it felt like democracy was on the ballot. Crossing my fingers it wasn't in vain.
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Just checked and our (overseas, mailed in) ballots were received in Tx. Oh what joy I will reap if Ted-in-real-life-I'm-also-a-shithead-Cruz is ousted from office.
The rest? I don't dare say a word.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The rest? I don't dare say a word.
posted by From Bklyn at 7:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
...a lot of stuff will be undecided late this evening. Give yourself permission to go to bed and get a decent night's sleep.
That's excellent advice. The kind that I will, to my everlasting regret, never take.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:32 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
That's excellent advice. The kind that I will, to my everlasting regret, never take.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:32 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I have pretty bad anxiety and the top thing that unnerves the shit out of me is when people are stupid and/or mean.
This election is a rough time. Thanks for being here, everybody.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:33 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
This election is a rough time. Thanks for being here, everybody.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:33 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
I'm cautiously optimistic. The Trump campaign's gotten weird over the past couple of weeks, and not in a good way. Also, a lot of Republicans are vocally hating Trump. The last time I saw that was in Alabama, and it briefly got a Democratic Senator. In any case, it's been storming here all morning, but that doesn't matter because we all voted last week. My long shot hope is that we knock out Ted Cruz. Allrad's run a better campaign than Beto did last time, so here's hoping for a miracle.
posted by Spike Glee at 7:36 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Spike Glee at 7:36 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I can remember the 1992 campaign pretty clearly, but am having trouble slotting it in to what you say.
Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right. The strategy worked for that one election (and one wonders, could Brown or Tsongas have won that general election anyway? Probably...). But it made leftists feel betrayed/ignored, like "both parties are the same" and turned them to apathy or the Greens. And also, leftists get blamed every time a Democrat loses.
Neither centrism nor "reaching across the aisle" has ever slowed down the Republicans from declaring every single Democrat "the most extreme socialist ever" or done anything to heal any divides or whatever.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip, but then another Clinton won the primary, then lost to Trump in the worst game of rock-paper-scissors ever... etc.
Anyway, this is history, I'm not just against TFG but for Harris (as long as we hold her feet to the fire over Palestine and some other issues). As far as "first female president" goes I like Harris a lot more than H.Clinton. (Warren could have been great though...)
posted by Foosnark at 7:39 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right. The strategy worked for that one election (and one wonders, could Brown or Tsongas have won that general election anyway? Probably...). But it made leftists feel betrayed/ignored, like "both parties are the same" and turned them to apathy or the Greens. And also, leftists get blamed every time a Democrat loses.
Neither centrism nor "reaching across the aisle" has ever slowed down the Republicans from declaring every single Democrat "the most extreme socialist ever" or done anything to heal any divides or whatever.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip, but then another Clinton won the primary, then lost to Trump in the worst game of rock-paper-scissors ever... etc.
Anyway, this is history, I'm not just against TFG but for Harris (as long as we hold her feet to the fire over Palestine and some other issues). As far as "first female president" goes I like Harris a lot more than H.Clinton. (Warren could have been great though...)
posted by Foosnark at 7:39 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]
I live in a very blue part of a fairly blue state but I was still so relieved to go vote I wanted to cry. (Also, our poll workers are the kindest and most fun. I love them.)
I'm feeling weirdly optimistic along with wanting to burst into tears and possibly throw up. I don't know what will happen but I am heartened by all the good people around me who are doing all the right things.
posted by edencosmic at 7:41 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I'm feeling weirdly optimistic along with wanting to burst into tears and possibly throw up. I don't know what will happen but I am heartened by all the good people around me who are doing all the right things.
posted by edencosmic at 7:41 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
One of the factors giving me hope is that over the past few days, the Trump campaign has been acting like it thinks it's losing. Trump wouldn't be yammering about a rigged election except to assuage his own ego at the prospect of yet another loss.
posted by Gelatin at 7:41 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 7:41 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I voted absentee in October, but this morning my wife headed to our local precinct and was back in minutes. She brought back a "RVA Votes" sticker featuring our very unofficial possum mascot. It's no werewolf shredding its shirt, but I'll take it.
posted by emelenjr at 7:41 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by emelenjr at 7:41 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I think blaming Bill Clinton for that is glossing over pretty broad centrist tendencies in that entire generation of Democratic leadership. It was many/most of them. And not only have we not been able to talk the party out of it since, we're basically having to wait for that generation to retire or die to move past it.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Scenes from the Boston polls, 7:05 AM: was in line 5 minutes after the polling station opened. There were ~20 people in front of me, but the line moved pretty quickly. Notably, there were several folks wearing "Election official" ID stickers milling about the line, which I don't recall seeing in previous election cycles, but everyone was convivial. Several folks in line had their dogs with them, and raised the question of whether dogs were allowed inside or had to be tied up by the door. Neither outdoor election official seemed to know whether the voting facility (an eldercare building whose first floor converts nicely to a polling station) allowed dogs inside. Consensus was "easier to get forgiveness than permission", so two doggos accompanied my 7-year-old and I inside. Aforementioned 7-year-old was pleased with this outcome. Myself, I'm waiting for the AM radio cranks out in Worcester to run with the headlines "ELECTION OFFICIALS IGNORANT OF LAW, CHAOS AT THE POLLS, STATE DEM APPARATCHIKS IN SHAMBLES"
posted by Mayor West at 7:42 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by Mayor West at 7:42 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
What are we calling Keir Starmer btw? Flag as a derail if you like, but I'm looking around and watching all these so-called Western democracies pissing their pants to elect Not the Worst.
Moderately right wing, same as Harris? Some small improvements to public services and not actively making cost of living worse, while leaving the super rich and multinationals to suck up ever more money as usual, not exactly enthralling over Israel?
I mean compared to the Literal Nazi Bros trying to institute an actual dictatorship by fraud on the other side in the US she's a fricking saint, but it's not like she's proposing actual radical change to the vampire capitalism monster that's eating the West alive.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:42 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Moderately right wing, same as Harris? Some small improvements to public services and not actively making cost of living worse, while leaving the super rich and multinationals to suck up ever more money as usual, not exactly enthralling over Israel?
I mean compared to the Literal Nazi Bros trying to institute an actual dictatorship by fraud on the other side in the US she's a fricking saint, but it's not like she's proposing actual radical change to the vampire capitalism monster that's eating the West alive.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 7:42 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Well, I just found that there's an election watch party two blocks from my house, at a Mexican restaurant that has a 100-foot screen. I'll head there after the movie and stuff myself with burritos while i watch a couple hours.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:43 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:43 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Bill Clinton intentionally moved the Democratic party toward the right.
Well, yeah, because the Dems had been getting slaughtered for 12 years. He took down an incumbent, which is not easy to do.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip...
Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:43 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Well, yeah, because the Dems had been getting slaughtered for 12 years. He took down an incumbent, which is not easy to do.
It looked like Bernie was set to shake things up and break the centrist grip...
Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:43 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
My hope, regarding the R hate that is finally being publicly shown toward Trump, is that they have internal polling numbers showing them as losing, and they know that it’s because they tied themselves to Trump and are going down with him. You knew what you were doing, assholes. You’ll say you didn’t have a choice, but yes you did. There’s a whole other party full of people who were able to make that choice. I hope it’s a downticket bloodbath of R losses, and I hope they choke on it.
posted by notoriety public at 7:43 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 7:43 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
*finger pistols*
PTSD resurfacing hard, or hardly resurfacing your PTSD?
*chuckles, pounds entire carafe of coffee*
posted by cortex at 7:43 AM on November 5 [65 favorites]
PTSD resurfacing hard, or hardly resurfacing your PTSD?
*chuckles, pounds entire carafe of coffee*
posted by cortex at 7:43 AM on November 5 [65 favorites]
hi cortex, miss u
posted by phunniemee at 7:48 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]
posted by phunniemee at 7:48 AM on November 5 [31 favorites]
Trump wouldn't be yammering about a rigged election except to assuage his own ego at the prospect of yet another loss.
The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:51 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:51 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I am desperately trying to stay pessimistic.
Pessimism of the intellect: optimism of the will.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:53 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Pessimism of the intellect: optimism of the will.
posted by Paul Slade at 7:53 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Whoever wins please spare a thought for the trans people in your community; Labour in the UK won and immediately started throwing trans people under the bus and I know we have no chance with Trump but there's no guarantee we'll be safe under Harris either, especially trans people in red states who are already in grave danger. If you see or hear people talking about how we're a distraction or a wedge issue please push back on that as well as any other forms of transphobia you encounter. We're a relatively small extremely vulnerable community and we've received a lot of negative attention and the environment that created isn't going to disappear overnight even if Harris wins as I am fervently praying she will.
posted by an octopus IRL at 7:53 AM on November 5 [76 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 7:53 AM on November 5 [76 favorites]
looks like i picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
but yes. seconding what our friendly local octopus said--things have gotten awful for trans people in the uk, and given how several democrats have accorded themselves in this election, the trust is just not there.
"things would be worse--" yes we know.
posted by i used to be someone else at 7:59 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
but yes. seconding what our friendly local octopus said--things have gotten awful for trans people in the uk, and given how several democrats have accorded themselves in this election, the trust is just not there.
"things would be worse--" yes we know.
posted by i used to be someone else at 7:59 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
The last time I saw that was in Alabama, and it briefly got a Democratic Senator
For those curious: Democrat Doug Jones represented the state of Alabama in the United States Senate from Jan 2018 through Jan 2021. I know 2021 feels like a long time ago, but it's fairly recent.
IIRC that was thanks largely to a special election where Black women turned out in force and Roy Moore had to contend with the noteworthy disadvantage of being Roy Moore.
Republicans aren't necessarily even guaranteed victory in the reddest of red states. When I voted early and got to the screen to pick between Actual Human Ted Cruz and Colin Allred I finger-stabbed the screen hard enough to shake the little privacy shield thing. So here's hoping.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 8:04 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]
For those curious: Democrat Doug Jones represented the state of Alabama in the United States Senate from Jan 2018 through Jan 2021. I know 2021 feels like a long time ago, but it's fairly recent.
IIRC that was thanks largely to a special election where Black women turned out in force and Roy Moore had to contend with the noteworthy disadvantage of being Roy Moore.
Republicans aren't necessarily even guaranteed victory in the reddest of red states. When I voted early and got to the screen to pick between Actual Human Ted Cruz and Colin Allred I finger-stabbed the screen hard enough to shake the little privacy shield thing. So here's hoping.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 8:04 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]
FWIW the 2016 campaign also featured Trump claiming the votes were rigged right up until he won
posted by Jon_Evil at 8:10 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 8:10 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Don't mistake depth of support for breadth of support. Bernie's fans really loved him, but everyone else was like are you kidding?
his favorability rankings are quite high
posted by BungaDunga at 8:11 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
his favorability rankings are quite high
posted by BungaDunga at 8:11 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
The same Trump who has been yammering about rigged elections since at least 2008? I . . . don't really think that's a bellwether.
Trump never expected to win in 2016, and even then barely did. He lost in 2020, and attempted a coup to stay in office. He's losing now. He has much less energy and is much more openly racist and sexist now. His base loves it, but his base has never been enough to win. There are more of us than there are of them.
Yes, he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
posted by Gelatin at 8:12 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Trump never expected to win in 2016, and even then barely did. He lost in 2020, and attempted a coup to stay in office. He's losing now. He has much less energy and is much more openly racist and sexist now. His base loves it, but his base has never been enough to win. There are more of us than there are of them.
Yes, he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
posted by Gelatin at 8:12 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
FWIW the 2016 campaign also featured Trump claiming the votes were rigged right up until he won
they definitely thought they were going to lose in 2016 too. they just happened to be wrong that time
posted by BungaDunga at 8:12 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
they definitely thought they were going to lose in 2016 too. they just happened to be wrong that time
posted by BungaDunga at 8:12 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
our friendly local octopus
OMG this is the best way anyone has ever described me, thank you, I needed that!
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:12 AM on November 5 [34 favorites]
OMG this is the best way anyone has ever described me, thank you, I needed that!
posted by an octopus IRL at 8:12 AM on November 5 [34 favorites]
I have a picture of my 1 year old daughter helping me vote for Hillary that makes me angry every time it comes up on my timeline. I've added a picture of my 9 year old daughter helping me vote for Kamala. Please don't let me hate that picture too.
Small voting location in central NC erupted in cheers for three young men saying they were first time votes. We're deep blue enough I have to believe they voted for Harris.
My daughter, btw, said she thinks I'd make a good Vice President some day. I guess that shows who she thinks is in charge of our household lol.
posted by jermsplan at 8:14 AM on November 5 [43 favorites]
Small voting location in central NC erupted in cheers for three young men saying they were first time votes. We're deep blue enough I have to believe they voted for Harris.
My daughter, btw, said she thinks I'd make a good Vice President some day. I guess that shows who she thinks is in charge of our household lol.
posted by jermsplan at 8:14 AM on November 5 [43 favorites]
Election Day in the USA used to feel like the ending of the campaign. Today, if Trump wins, it's just another round of the fight. And, of course, if Harris wins and the right refuses to concede, it's just another round in the fight. So I'll be glad when today is over and we have a better picture of what the fight is going to be like, but I'm in this for the long haul.
Here's hoping Harris wins easily, and here's hoping the legal system holds strong, and here's hoping that the Proud Boys and their ilk get stomped if they try anything. Let's temper our hope with backup plans though because there's a whole lot of people who are going to need our help. Voting is just one of the tools.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:16 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Here's hoping Harris wins easily, and here's hoping the legal system holds strong, and here's hoping that the Proud Boys and their ilk get stomped if they try anything. Let's temper our hope with backup plans though because there's a whole lot of people who are going to need our help. Voting is just one of the tools.
posted by Joey Michaels at 8:16 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
As always, I'm coping by, among other methods, reflecting on and hoping for any possible signs that the sturm und drang of the presidential election might find continuance in the much, much longer-term and lower-prominence work of organizing for long-term redress of the systemic injustices that structure our nation.
In this regard, one voice I've continually returned to in our long national nightmare is Angela Davis in Freedom Is A Constant Struggle:
Fascism, or at least its antecedents, will be with us always—to a lesser or greater extent. Would that the same be true of our erstwhile allies.
I too may not be engaged in this thread for long, needing to tend to the compassion for myself that I struggle to cultivate so that I can also be there for others.
May we all be safe. May we all have shelter and sustenance. May we all be at ease in this world.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:19 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
In this regard, one voice I've continually returned to in our long national nightmare is Angela Davis in Freedom Is A Constant Struggle:
But you can't simply invite people to join you and be immediately on board, particularly when they were not necessarily represented during the earlier organizing processes. You have to develop organizing strategies so that people identify with the particular issue as their issue.Coercive systems cannot be countered without giving people an out to get away from coercion. Resistance and justice cannot be had without seeking both/and solutions that build solidarity—and material support—to avoid people being pitted against each other.
Fascism, or at least its antecedents, will be with us always—to a lesser or greater extent. Would that the same be true of our erstwhile allies.
I too may not be engaged in this thread for long, needing to tend to the compassion for myself that I struggle to cultivate so that I can also be there for others.
May we all be safe. May we all have shelter and sustenance. May we all be at ease in this world.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:19 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
The problem with everyone trying to read the tea leaves of Trump's or his campaigns's behavior is that we have one election where he won and one where he lost and he behaved largely the same both times. He's also a highly emotion and erratic manbaby so it's impossible to say what his constant bizarre actions and words are supposed to mean.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:19 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:19 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Voted at about 7:30am this morning, a large blue city in deeply-red Rural Minnesota, bordering deeply-red North Dakota (but also bordering the blue largest city in North Dakota). Lots of people with children in tow, presumably voting on the way to school and work. Big signs on the door that no political t-shirts, caps, etc would be allowed in. A few voters in military uniforms.
The only line occurred at the "feed the paper ballot into the machine" point, because as I was finishing filling in the bubbles in my ballot booth, the machine started beeping because someone apparently fed something in wrong and it took a few minutes to get it back to working again.
The layout of the polling place was a little weird -- square in front of the entrance was a person at a table with a computer. This was just for checking that this was your correct polling place, if you weren't sure, but it seems their job was basically to tell people that if they already know this is their polling place they can go over there ---> which is where you actually got your ballot. I suspect they were secretly the "no 'lets go brandon' shirts" team too.
Cautiously optimistic for a Harris-Walz win; we just drove from here to Milwaukee and back, some of which through the rural backroads, and saw lots of Harris-Walz signs among the Trumps. All I could think is that if I lived in Wisconsin this would be an easy way to determine which businesses not to to business with in the future. Like, I don't know what the business did, but the fact they switched their big LED sign over to a "wives should vote the same as their husbands" message tells a lot about them.
My "republican-because-catholic" sister in law has done her "tired of the bad blood, leaving social media for a while" thing like she did when Biden was elected, so that also gives me confidence at the lack of confidence on that side.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:23 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
The only line occurred at the "feed the paper ballot into the machine" point, because as I was finishing filling in the bubbles in my ballot booth, the machine started beeping because someone apparently fed something in wrong and it took a few minutes to get it back to working again.
The layout of the polling place was a little weird -- square in front of the entrance was a person at a table with a computer. This was just for checking that this was your correct polling place, if you weren't sure, but it seems their job was basically to tell people that if they already know this is their polling place they can go over there ---> which is where you actually got your ballot. I suspect they were secretly the "no 'lets go brandon' shirts" team too.
Cautiously optimistic for a Harris-Walz win; we just drove from here to Milwaukee and back, some of which through the rural backroads, and saw lots of Harris-Walz signs among the Trumps. All I could think is that if I lived in Wisconsin this would be an easy way to determine which businesses not to to business with in the future. Like, I don't know what the business did, but the fact they switched their big LED sign over to a "wives should vote the same as their husbands" message tells a lot about them.
My "republican-because-catholic" sister in law has done her "tired of the bad blood, leaving social media for a while" thing like she did when Biden was elected, so that also gives me confidence at the lack of confidence on that side.
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:23 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Joey Michaels is right, this is just the opening act.
Here's a public service annoucement that Democracy Docket is a good place to track litigation surrounding the election. Marc Elias is a saint and my only wish is that he gets off of Xhitter and onto Mastodon where I could follow him.
posted by JoeZydeco at 8:23 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Here's a public service annoucement that Democracy Docket is a good place to track litigation surrounding the election. Marc Elias is a saint and my only wish is that he gets off of Xhitter and onto Mastodon where I could follow him.
posted by JoeZydeco at 8:23 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Roy Moore had a LOT of prominent Alabama Republicans publicly refuse to vote for him, including Jeff Sessions, the outgoing Senator. (He also had a weakness for teenage girls come out during the election, which didn't help things.) Doug Jones only served one term, and was replaced by the stupidest person in the Senate, so no blue wave there.
posted by Spike Glee at 8:23 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Spike Glee at 8:23 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
There are more of us than there are of them.
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
"Remember how great it was when gas was cheap in 2020?"
No, dipshit, it wasn't great. It was only cheap because we were in a pandemic and no one could go anywhere. It was not a policy victory in any way.
"Trump is tough; he can stop Putin."
No, fuckface, Putin felt emboldened enough to start a war because Trump cowtowed to him for four years.
And on and on.
It's not us making this decision and it's not the other side. It's the tapioca-brained shitheels who wake up from a current events coma every four years to make a huge decision for all of us based on the stupidest possible fucking factors.
We could let an inebriated preschooler make this decision and it could hardly be more fucking random.
There was a possible world where one campaign was strong enough or one lost enough momentum that one side could pull away. Neither of those things happened.
So we're stuck with total fucking turd fondlers deciding on a coin flip.
I hate 2024 so much.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:25 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
"Remember how great it was when gas was cheap in 2020?"
No, dipshit, it wasn't great. It was only cheap because we were in a pandemic and no one could go anywhere. It was not a policy victory in any way.
"Trump is tough; he can stop Putin."
No, fuckface, Putin felt emboldened enough to start a war because Trump cowtowed to him for four years.
And on and on.
It's not us making this decision and it's not the other side. It's the tapioca-brained shitheels who wake up from a current events coma every four years to make a huge decision for all of us based on the stupidest possible fucking factors.
We could let an inebriated preschooler make this decision and it could hardly be more fucking random.
There was a possible world where one campaign was strong enough or one lost enough momentum that one side could pull away. Neither of those things happened.
So we're stuck with total fucking turd fondlers deciding on a coin flip.
I hate 2024 so much.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:25 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]
WFO in morning. Vote around Noon. WFH in afternoon. Starting media blackout around 5ish. The Friends are hosting a special meeting tonight, so I may spend some time there in the silence. For those wanting to get away from the media, it might be worth seeing if a Meeting is being held in your city.
Light and love all.
posted by theBigRedKittyPurrs at 8:25 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Light and love all.
posted by theBigRedKittyPurrs at 8:25 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
There are more of us than there are of them.
he won with a minority once already
posted by BungaDunga at 8:31 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
he won with a minority once already
posted by BungaDunga at 8:31 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
There are more of us than there are of them.
In total, of course. In the specific swing state elections that matter to the ultimate EC vote total? We'll have to see. Remember he did actually win once. That's not saying anything about this election, but this call back to pre-2016 confidence of inevitable loss is a bit odd.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:31 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
In total, of course. In the specific swing state elections that matter to the ultimate EC vote total? We'll have to see. Remember he did actually win once. That's not saying anything about this election, but this call back to pre-2016 confidence of inevitable loss is a bit odd.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:31 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I've seen a lot of people describing voting for Kamala as harm reduction.
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
posted by constraint at 8:33 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
posted by constraint at 8:33 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Two comments deleted. Let's please avoid doom predictions and drive by comments downplaying the impact of these elections. Please respond appropriately to people's mood and investment in the topic and refrain from making light jokes in a serious discussion.
posted by loup (staff) at 8:36 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by loup (staff) at 8:36 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Got up early to bike to the polls this morning, here in northern Virginia. Google Maps took me on a new route, which was interesting.
Polling site was a volunteer fire department. Dem and GOP signs dotted the parking lot. A Harris table sat _just_ outside the limit, handing out sample ballots. Inside there wasn't a line. Volunteer staffers outnumbered voters. I got my ballot, hit the carrel, filled in the squares, then fed the paper into a scanner. Volunteers told me there was a steady flow of voters and no incidents. I took stickers and a selfie on the way out.
Google Maps sent my bike and I on another new route, much longer. I passed some Trump signs, then country houses (a deer watched me), then back into town and home.
posted by doctornemo at 8:37 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Polling site was a volunteer fire department. Dem and GOP signs dotted the parking lot. A Harris table sat _just_ outside the limit, handing out sample ballots. Inside there wasn't a line. Volunteer staffers outnumbered voters. I got my ballot, hit the carrel, filled in the squares, then fed the paper into a scanner. Volunteers told me there was a steady flow of voters and no incidents. I took stickers and a selfie on the way out.
Google Maps sent my bike and I on another new route, much longer. I passed some Trump signs, then country houses (a deer watched me), then back into town and home.
posted by doctornemo at 8:37 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Sorry for my (not-deleted, but still very cranky) comment above.
It's been a day already.
You're my people, though. Sending you all positive mind atoms.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:38 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
It's been a day already.
You're my people, though. Sending you all positive mind atoms.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:38 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
I'm not an expert, but it seems like polling is not going great lately--a lot of people don't answer their phones, a lot of the people that do are cranks, and a lot of pollsters seem to be correcting for these factors by either telling their clients what they want to hear, trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16, or saying 'well, after spending months consulting reams of data and years doing this kind of work, our team of experts have determined it's a fifty-fifty chance.'
(If you are an expert in polling, and you're getting ready to tell me why I'm full of crap, please do, I would genuinely welcome that.)
posted by box at 8:42 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
(If you are an expert in polling, and you're getting ready to tell me why I'm full of crap, please do, I would genuinely welcome that.)
posted by box at 8:42 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Let's please avoid doom predictions
Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
posted by mittens at 8:44 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
posted by mittens at 8:44 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
let's not do that to our beloved mods
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:46 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:46 AM on November 5 [24 favorites]
Red or blue? The bellwether counties that could swing the US election: Pundits are keeping a close on watch on key counties across the US whose results could play a major role in the outcome [The Guardian]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
posted by mazola at 8:46 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
posted by mazola at 8:46 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
let's not do that to our beloved mods
our what
posted by phunniemee at 8:47 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
our what
posted by phunniemee at 8:47 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
posted by jedicus at 8:48 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by jedicus at 8:48 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Would it be helpful to have a separate doom thread?
In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:50 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:50 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Voted in person in Pennsylvania at 7am. The line was out to the street but went fairly quickly, plus I got to jump ahead as one of the few people in line from my district (maybe they all voted early by mail?) and was out of there with my sticker by 7:20. I expected to cry, as I did when I voted for Hillary in 2016 and Biden in 2020, but I must be all out of tears after the past eight long years.
Here's hoping the majority my fellow Americans, in the right places (and fuck the electoral college by the way), are sane enough to elect a regular flawed politician over a literal fucking fascist.
posted by biblioPHL at 8:50 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Here's hoping the majority my fellow Americans, in the right places (and fuck the electoral college by the way), are sane enough to elect a regular flawed politician over a literal fucking fascist.
posted by biblioPHL at 8:50 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
he won with a minority once already
America, where everyone knows who is going to get more votes, but nobody knows who is going to win!
posted by mikesch at 8:51 AM on November 5 [53 favorites]
America, where everyone knows who is going to get more votes, but nobody knows who is going to win!
posted by mikesch at 8:51 AM on November 5 [53 favorites]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
Sheesh! Yet another undecided voter still trying to make up their mind on election day.
(Under the circumstances I recommend whatever is least likely to give you heartburn.)
posted by jedicus at 8:51 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Sheesh! Yet another undecided voter still trying to make up their mind on election day.
(Under the circumstances I recommend whatever is least likely to give you heartburn.)
posted by jedicus at 8:51 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
he's yammering about rigged elections, because he expects to lose and his ego can't take it.
... and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:52 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
... and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:52 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:52 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:52 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
after spending months consulting reams of data and years doing this kind of work, our team of experts have determined it's a fifty-fifty chance.'
It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
Reminds me of the 1955 Isaac Asimov short story "Franchise" set in a future where voting prediction has become so advanced that every election a single Voter of the Year is chosen and the election is determined based on their answers to some questions posed by the supercomputer Multivac.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:53 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
It's wild that even in an election cycle with a total spending of ~$16 billion (and that's just federal!), we seem to have better and finer-grained data on TV viewership than we do voter preferences.
Reminds me of the 1955 Isaac Asimov short story "Franchise" set in a future where voting prediction has become so advanced that every election a single Voter of the Year is chosen and the election is determined based on their answers to some questions posed by the supercomputer Multivac.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:53 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
In other news: I'm struggling with finalizing my pizza choices for this evening.
It's down to pepperoni or broken glass, but I feel like I just haven't heard enough about the pepperoni.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:53 AM on November 5 [93 favorites]
It's down to pepperoni or broken glass, but I feel like I just haven't heard enough about the pepperoni.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:53 AM on November 5 [93 favorites]
I've seen a lot of people describing voting for Kamala as harm reduction.
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
Oh, I agree. I would still categorize a Harris vote as "harm reduction" in the sense that I'm quite certain that Trump wouldn't dream of even paying any attention to any of that non-electoral work post-election in the first place. Harris also may not do all of it - but at least she would bloody listen, you know?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I'd argue that the non electoral work you do after this election is the harm reduction.
Oh, I agree. I would still categorize a Harris vote as "harm reduction" in the sense that I'm quite certain that Trump wouldn't dream of even paying any attention to any of that non-electoral work post-election in the first place. Harris also may not do all of it - but at least she would bloody listen, you know?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I recommend the St. Lucia: Ham, pineapple, jalapeno, kalamata olives and shredded coconut.
Is this because the real Saint Lucia gouged her eyes out?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:55 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Is this because the real Saint Lucia gouged her eyes out?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:55 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Just sitting here with my fingers and toes crossed.
posted by bshort at 8:57 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by bshort at 8:57 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided? It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:00 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:00 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
An ideal outcome would see TFG, Musk, and a few courtiers on a plane bound for Minsk by midnight tonight.
I do not expect this to be the case.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:04 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
I do not expect this to be the case.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:04 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
Yes, Trump has ringers like Aileen Cannon in the tank for him, and Roberts, Alito, and Thomas would probably love to appoint Trump president regardless of the evidence, but I doubt the Democrats will stand for yet another partisan decision overturning the will of the majority.
The "election was rigged!" ploy didn't work in 2020 when Trump actually held the levers of power, and a number of the participants are in jail now (with Trump's own trial possibly looming if he loses, which is of course what this is all about). For a coup to work now, everyone has to gamble that the Prisoner's Dilemma will break their way -- that no one else will defect in the face of serious consequences. That bet wasn't wise in 2020 and it is less so now.
posted by Gelatin at 9:04 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
Yes, Trump has ringers like Aileen Cannon in the tank for him, and Roberts, Alito, and Thomas would probably love to appoint Trump president regardless of the evidence, but I doubt the Democrats will stand for yet another partisan decision overturning the will of the majority.
The "election was rigged!" ploy didn't work in 2020 when Trump actually held the levers of power, and a number of the participants are in jail now (with Trump's own trial possibly looming if he loses, which is of course what this is all about). For a coup to work now, everyone has to gamble that the Prisoner's Dilemma will break their way -- that no one else will defect in the face of serious consequences. That bet wasn't wise in 2020 and it is less so now.
posted by Gelatin at 9:04 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I’m pretty sure there isn’t a unique single person with indigestion today.
I’ve had a series of doctor’s appointments this week, which include screening questions about anxiety; why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!
Planning on doing one last round of door knocking this afternoon if I can get off work in time (and if the flu+covid vaccines I got yesterday aren’t acting up too much). Action fights despair.
posted by nat at 9:05 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I’ve had a series of doctor’s appointments this week, which include screening questions about anxiety; why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!
Planning on doing one last round of door knocking this afternoon if I can get off work in time (and if the flu+covid vaccines I got yesterday aren’t acting up too much). Action fights despair.
posted by nat at 9:05 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
In the IDSPISPOPD sense?
you have to no clip out of the normal election thread to find the doomer thread.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:05 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
you have to no clip out of the normal election thread to find the doomer thread.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:05 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
The bit about "polling is broken because people don't answer their phones" -- polling was pretty accurate in predicting an Obama win in 2008 and 2012, and a lot of people had already moved away from landlines by then.
trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16
I do think this is a factor in polling potentially being off this year.
The right-wing trashpolling that flooded the polling world in 2022 has returned, too, It was quiet-ish over the summer, but it returned like a plague in October.
Plus, the people who run sites with polling averages only flag a subset of the biased polls as being partisan. We like to pick on 538 for this, but it's a wider problem at several sites. It's not that tough to smoke out the bad actors: look up their website, do they do lots of consulting in really red areas, like local sheriff races in Mississippi? Who's their CEO, does he post MAGA stuff to Twitter? Only about a third to half of the right-wing "pollsters" get a red diamond next to their name to mark them as a partisan poll.
posted by gimonca at 9:05 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
trying not to make the same mistakes they made in '22 or '20 or '16
I do think this is a factor in polling potentially being off this year.
The right-wing trashpolling that flooded the polling world in 2022 has returned, too, It was quiet-ish over the summer, but it returned like a plague in October.
Plus, the people who run sites with polling averages only flag a subset of the biased polls as being partisan. We like to pick on 538 for this, but it's a wider problem at several sites. It's not that tough to smoke out the bad actors: look up their website, do they do lots of consulting in really red areas, like local sheriff races in Mississippi? Who's their CEO, does he post MAGA stuff to Twitter? Only about a third to half of the right-wing "pollsters" get a red diamond next to their name to mark them as a partisan poll.
posted by gimonca at 9:05 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I dropped off my ballot and my brother's and my daughters yesterday afternoon. There was a weird cranky (he honked at me! For parking in the open space in front of him!) oldish dude in a car with a laptop open on the dash, watching the ballot drop off box like a hawk. It was creepy. But into the box went the ballots and that's done, love you Oregon. Although. I kind of miss voting in person on election day. I like the sense of community. And I like the sticker. Get with it, Oregon! Start giving us a sticker! I think I am going to make this my issue and push it statewide for the next four years.
If, that is, I am not a refugee in another, kinder country. I really hope I'm still here.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:06 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
If, that is, I am not a refugee in another, kinder country. I really hope I'm still here.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:06 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
I am naseously optimistic, but can bear thinking about the horror show that will envelop the world if the Orange Abomination succeeds in only very tiny amounts.In any sane world all the signs we are seeing should lead to a reasonable conclusion of good news coming, but I will be haunted by "you got this, Hillary" to my dying days.
posted by blue shadows at 9:08 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by blue shadows at 9:08 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
The wildcard in Coup II is going to be Speaker Mike Johnson. There are possible ways he can mess with the electoral vote if particular states play shenanigans with their vote counting.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:08 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:08 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
> and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:11 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Which, back in 2020, ran up against a solid wall of "you actually have to provide evidence for your claims in court" and failed, every single one.
However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:11 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Can we fast forward to where the screen fades to black and lists how long they all got in prison?
posted by adept256 at 9:11 AM on November 5 [58 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 9:11 AM on November 5 [58 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided?
No, pretty much everyone hates it, but frankly people really really really need to stop complaining about this because until the Constitution is amended the Electoral College is how presidential elections happen. It's kind of amazing to me that in 2024 people are still whining about this.
The popular vote just doesn't matter under this system so why even bother talking about it? If you want to win you have to win under the current rules not the rules as you'd wish them to be. The Republicans get this. It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:12 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
No, pretty much everyone hates it, but frankly people really really really need to stop complaining about this because until the Constitution is amended the Electoral College is how presidential elections happen. It's kind of amazing to me that in 2024 people are still whining about this.
The popular vote just doesn't matter under this system so why even bother talking about it? If you want to win you have to win under the current rules not the rules as you'd wish them to be. The Republicans get this. It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:12 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Election Coup II: Electric Boogaloo
The sequels are always worse. Best avoided.
posted by mazola at 9:13 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
The sequels are always worse. Best avoided.
posted by mazola at 9:13 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Hoping for an inverse 1984 electoral map. Expecting a repeat of the 2008 map.
posted by swift at 9:13 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by swift at 9:13 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
> No, pretty much everyone hates it,
For the time being, the republicans absolutely love it, because the system makes them incredibly powerful relative to their actual popularity (and that's why we still have it)
posted by dis_integration at 9:14 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
For the time being, the republicans absolutely love it, because the system makes them incredibly powerful relative to their actual popularity (and that's why we still have it)
posted by dis_integration at 9:14 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
If I hear one more fantastical fantasy about Trump ever seeing the inside of a prison cell, I feel like I'm going to pass out.
Where's the emoji where you hold the bridge of your nose with head bowed?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:14 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Where's the emoji where you hold the bridge of your nose with head bowed?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:14 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
posted by adept256 at 9:15 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
posted by adept256 at 9:15 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
I'm moderately hopeful, on the basis of Male Pollsters Shocked — Shocked!! — When a Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters
Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:15 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Honestly, I think the whole "bellwether county" thing is magical thinking.
Also, I think reporters love it, because they get a free mini-vacation to, say, Door County, Wisconsin. If my boss sent me to a resort in Door County to finish up some work, sure, I'd go.
posted by gimonca at 9:17 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Also, I think reporters love it, because they get a free mini-vacation to, say, Door County, Wisconsin. If my boss sent me to a resort in Door County to finish up some work, sure, I'd go.
posted by gimonca at 9:17 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
> It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
ONN dropped this story:
https://youtu.be/9qI0LTmSr38
posted by torokunai at 9:17 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
ONN dropped this story:
https://youtu.be/9qI0LTmSr38
posted by torokunai at 9:17 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Grrr... my kid has been on line to vote in Lehigh County PA for over an hour now and no one's moving. Word is that 'some' of the voting machines are not working. People are playing chess in the line, running out to the local Burger King and back. I don't want to jump to conclusions but it sounds like a dirty trick. I'd really wanted for her first voting experience to be a good one—
posted by newdaddy at 9:17 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by newdaddy at 9:17 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I was just driving home from errands and a truck plastered with the words “TURDS B GONE” passed by me at a 4 way stop. I guess it’s a dog waste cleanup service but the message could not be more apt.
posted by sucre at 9:19 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by sucre at 9:19 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
It's a weird obsession huh? Most democracies insist that the person with the most votes is the winner. Bizarre!
Again, the Electoral College is the currently existing system for electing the President. I wish it weren't but it is. So it really is bizarre to keep obsessing and wasting effort over something that has no bearing on the election if you want to win the election.
"BUSH/TRUMP ONLY WON BECAUSE OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!"
Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:19 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Again, the Electoral College is the currently existing system for electing the President. I wish it weren't but it is. So it really is bizarre to keep obsessing and wasting effort over something that has no bearing on the election if you want to win the election.
"BUSH/TRUMP ONLY WON BECAUSE OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!"
Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:19 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
However, they also did a pretty good job of ginning up enough laymen support that they tried to stage a coup on January 6th of 2021, leading to six deaths and 174 injuries. Sometimes the point of a lawsuit - especially if you talk about it a lot - is to spread discontent OUTSIDE the courts.
Absolutely! But the coup didn't work when Trump had the levers of power, and a bunch of them are in jail now. I expect Trump's rhetoric to lead to violence again. I just don't expect it to put him in the Oval Office now when it failed in 2020.
posted by Gelatin at 9:19 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Absolutely! But the coup didn't work when Trump had the levers of power, and a bunch of them are in jail now. I expect Trump's rhetoric to lead to violence again. I just don't expect it to put him in the Oval Office now when it failed in 2020.
posted by Gelatin at 9:19 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I will probably mostly stay out of this thread but I did read somewhere (Jay Kuo? Electoral-vote.com?) that on Saturday alone the Democratic volunteers knocked over a million doors.
I've never heard anything like this.
I am hoping Dobbs will turn into a massive win for Democrats. I would sure love it if we got the trifecta and used that to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights bill.
posted by kristi at 9:20 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I've never heard anything like this.
I am hoping Dobbs will turn into a massive win for Democrats. I would sure love it if we got the trifecta and used that to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights bill.
posted by kristi at 9:20 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
This election is not only about the possibility of fascism. It's about the possibility that Trump will begin his first steps to being out of public life forever. That's almost as good as a Kamala win.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:22 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:22 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
and also because he's laying the groundwork for a flood of Republican lawsuits challenging the probity of the election if Harris wins.
Also, the opportunity to run a second $250M "Stop the Steal" grift.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:24 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Also, the opportunity to run a second $250M "Stop the Steal" grift.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:24 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
why yes, doctor, I *am* quite anxious at the moment. I wonder why!
Why am I anxious?
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Why am I anxious?
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I keep seeing so many comments lately from Dems on my socials to the effect of “I can’t wait until I can stop thinking about politics for the next four years.” While I get the sentiment, I can’t help thinking that kind of thinking is a big part of how our side got into this mess in the first place.
posted by non canadian guy at 9:25 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]
posted by non canadian guy at 9:25 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]
'Whining' about the electoral college is part of the process of building support to get rid of it. There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
posted by Pyry at 9:26 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 9:26 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
I'm generally lukewarm on Adam Conover, but this was a good message for today.
Stay safe, do what you need to do today (and going forward) for your mental health, and be ready, whomever wins, to fight for your rights, and a better world.
posted by chromecow at 9:29 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Stay safe, do what you need to do today (and going forward) for your mental health, and be ready, whomever wins, to fight for your rights, and a better world.
posted by chromecow at 9:29 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
You know what I've just realized this moment?
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:29 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:29 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
sometimes bearing witness is all a person can do
plus, outside of this particular online bubble I fucking hope people are bringing this up with young voters constantly. clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
posted by ginger.beef at 9:30 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
sometimes bearing witness is all a person can do
plus, outside of this particular online bubble I fucking hope people are bringing this up with young voters constantly. clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
posted by ginger.beef at 9:30 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Basically, the pollsters have been over-correcting for Trump voters because they undercounted them before (especially 2016), without also correcting for a) higher death rates in Trump's older anti-vaxers and b) outright women's fury over Dobbs, which is why the polls are suspiciously far too even - even if they were actually completely tied across the board, there should have been more statistical variation in real polling, PLUS right-winger polls putting Trump ahead as a means to sell the idea that it was 'stolen' if he loses.
I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" yt joke yet?
Now you have to go outside, turn three times, and spit!
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Now you have to go outside, turn three times, and spit!
posted by Gelatin at 9:31 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:32 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:32 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
The Onion is also currently streaming BREAKING: Live Look Inside Voting Booth
posted by Catblack at 9:32 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by Catblack at 9:32 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
If there's a trifecta the first three things should be:
1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
posted by thecaddy at 9:34 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
posted by thecaddy at 9:34 AM on November 5 [38 favorites]
I don't think any of this is true, at all. Does 538's model correct for undercounting Trump voters? Does silvers? How does fury matter here? Are Harris voters somehow undercounted?
I believe all those are answered in the fine article, from a far more credible and credentialed analyst than me.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:34 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I believe all those are answered in the fine article, from a far more credible and credentialed analyst than me.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:34 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
'Whining' about the electoral college is part of the process of building support to get rid of it. There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
Good luck. I genuinely mean that because the EC has got to go, but amending the Constitution for any reason, let alone to remove the EC, in the current political climate is going to be harder than willing unicorns into existence.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:36 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
clearly the older folks are happy to remind us "that's just the way things are, can't change it w/o a constitutional amendment" and something tells me they've been saying it for generations. maybe step aside for people who want to change a broken thing.
Good luck. I genuinely mean that because the EC has got to go, but amending the Constitution for any reason, let alone to remove the EC, in the current political climate is going to be harder than willing unicorns into existence.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:36 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Legal question/riddle from a thing I saw on Wikipedia.
Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022
But also, I heard the Trump campaign has refused to file transition plan paperwork, including some important signatures, so maybe they've already blown it? That would be very funny.
Thanks in advance to any informed election law people who care to venture an opinion.
posted by ryanrs at 9:37 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022
Transition fundsSo at first glance, this looks like Trump gets free money for refusing to concede for 5 days, no matter what? Lol if true.
The law allows multiple "apparent successful candidates" to receive federal presidential transition funds if more than one candidate has not conceded five days after the election. It provides guidelines for the administrator of the General Services Administration to determine when and to whom funds should be released.
But also, I heard the Trump campaign has refused to file transition plan paperwork, including some important signatures, so maybe they've already blown it? That would be very funny.
Thanks in advance to any informed election law people who care to venture an opinion.
posted by ryanrs at 9:37 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
but I will be haunted by "you got this, Hillary" to my dying days.
I'll be haunted by that, plus 2000, when I went to bed with Al Gore as my President and woke up the next day with George Bush the winner.
Needless to say, I'm not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight.
posted by invincible summer at 9:38 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I'll be haunted by that, plus 2000, when I went to bed with Al Gore as my President and woke up the next day with George Bush the winner.
Needless to say, I'm not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight.
posted by invincible summer at 9:38 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Well, yeah. That's how the system currently works and yelling about winning or losing the popular vote won't change anything.
Yelling about climate change wont change anything
Yelling about gay marriage wont change anything
Yelling about civili rights wont change anything
As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
posted by WatTylerJr at 9:38 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Yelling about climate change wont change anything
Yelling about gay marriage wont change anything
Yelling about civili rights wont change anything
As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
posted by WatTylerJr at 9:38 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Midday Check-in from the reliably, exceptionally blue sector of NC:
Anxiety Level: High. Like "for real, time to break out the benzos later" high. I closed the office today and gave the staff the day off. Mostly so I could spend as much time as possible outside (it's beautiful) watching the leaves fall and going on long walks whenever I think I'm about to have a heart attack. It does not help that my mother had cancer surgery last week at a hospital in Asheville where they still don't have potable water. She's okay (and they got it all), but Jesus Fucking Christ Flying Kites it has been several straight weeks of train coming at you stress over here on the pond. Even the cats are jumpy.
Vote Status: Did it first day of early voting. Some weird ballot hijinks over the weekend on the BOE website let to me asking three friends who are Civil Rights lawyers, the NC Voter Protection Hotline, and the staff at the polling place to help me figure it out. Short version: a vote has been counted in my name. Weird shit though. Did I overreact? Perhaps. But it's 2024
Plans: Do I go out and watch the results? Do I stay in? Why does this feel like a much bigger decision than it should be? Is superstitious bullshit genetic? This is on you, Nana.
Pizza: I'm having Carrburritos today, which is my local favorite comfort food , but if I were having pizza, I have the one with fancy mushrooms, fontina, and fennel sausage. And maybe a nice Scottish Ale or four (depending on results).
Fingers crosssed that I don't poison myself chewing on a gel manicure. Will update.
posted by thivaia at 9:38 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
Anxiety Level: High. Like "for real, time to break out the benzos later" high. I closed the office today and gave the staff the day off. Mostly so I could spend as much time as possible outside (it's beautiful) watching the leaves fall and going on long walks whenever I think I'm about to have a heart attack. It does not help that my mother had cancer surgery last week at a hospital in Asheville where they still don't have potable water. She's okay (and they got it all), but Jesus Fucking Christ Flying Kites it has been several straight weeks of train coming at you stress over here on the pond. Even the cats are jumpy.
Vote Status: Did it first day of early voting. Some weird ballot hijinks over the weekend on the BOE website let to me asking three friends who are Civil Rights lawyers, the NC Voter Protection Hotline, and the staff at the polling place to help me figure it out. Short version: a vote has been counted in my name. Weird shit though. Did I overreact? Perhaps. But it's 2024
Plans: Do I go out and watch the results? Do I stay in? Why does this feel like a much bigger decision than it should be? Is superstitious bullshit genetic? This is on you, Nana.
Pizza: I'm having Carrburritos today, which is my local favorite comfort food , but if I were having pizza, I have the one with fancy mushrooms, fontina, and fennel sausage. And maybe a nice Scottish Ale or four (depending on results).
Fingers crosssed that I don't poison myself chewing on a gel manicure. Will update.
posted by thivaia at 9:38 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
There is more to politics than just tactical decisions about the next election.
It seems fairly clearly now that the GOP endgame is that there are no more elections.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:40 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
It seems fairly clearly now that the GOP endgame is that there are no more elections.
posted by ryanshepard at 9:40 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
No matter who wins, we're in a moment of normalizing genocide. Remember, all of that fear of "what could happen" is happening to people right now and will continue happening under either of these candidates.
posted by iamck at 9:40 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
posted by iamck at 9:40 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
We're HOW many comments into this thread and no one has made a West-Wing "the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing" joke yet?
The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:42 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]
The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:42 AM on November 5 [19 favorites]
I don't think any of this is true, at all.
It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 9:43 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 9:43 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I had a pleasant hour-ish commute in a subway with no internet connection, but now I'm at work and the doom scrolling has begun. I don't think I have it in me resist so I'm embracing the misery for a day and thinking of it as bearing witness.
It sucks but I'm glad you're all here to commiserate. Hang in there.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 9:44 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
It sucks but I'm glad you're all here to commiserate. Hang in there.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 9:44 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
As far as I know we are talking about it, it's bone deep unfairness, and the need to get rid of it. Is that ok? Or is there some new edict of forbidden subject we all should be aware of.
I'll prepare a memo with guidelines on the subject so check your inbox.
When I say it's pointless to whine and focus on the popular vote, I mean in the sense that I see here and elsewhere where people will say something like (using example numbers) "80% of the country supports access to abortion, I can't believe Trump can win not supporting it*!" But this is meaningless because what matters to winning the election is what the relevant voting populations in the swing states support and influencing that. It can in fact be actively harmful to a campaign to point to general numbers that give a false sense of confidence.
*I know recently Trump has changed his tune and now says things friendlier to abortion access.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:45 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I'll prepare a memo with guidelines on the subject so check your inbox.
When I say it's pointless to whine and focus on the popular vote, I mean in the sense that I see here and elsewhere where people will say something like (using example numbers) "80% of the country supports access to abortion, I can't believe Trump can win not supporting it*!" But this is meaningless because what matters to winning the election is what the relevant voting populations in the swing states support and influencing that. It can in fact be actively harmful to a campaign to point to general numbers that give a false sense of confidence.
*I know recently Trump has changed his tune and now says things friendlier to abortion access.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:45 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I am stress eating candy I bought for my students. Class is at two. Not sure if there will be any left by then.
posted by pangolin party at 9:49 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by pangolin party at 9:49 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
Two counter-arguments:
1. Sometimes giving people an idealized vision is the first step into making them think it's possible, and thus something to be worked towards.
2. Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:50 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Two counter-arguments:
1. Sometimes giving people an idealized vision is the first step into making them think it's possible, and thus something to be worked towards.
2. Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:50 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
It's bizarre to the point of being self-defeating that Democrats/liberals focus so much on the national popular vote.
The entire Dem operation is focused on seven states that will decide the Electoral College. And many thousands of liberals have abandoned their own states, some for weeks, to go to those seven states. Every dollar is being spent there, every eyeball is trained on those states.
posted by kensington314 at 9:50 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]
The entire Dem operation is focused on seven states that will decide the Electoral College. And many thousands of liberals have abandoned their own states, some for weeks, to go to those seven states. Every dollar is being spent there, every eyeball is trained on those states.
posted by kensington314 at 9:50 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]
Earlier this year, during a visit to friends in Spain, I took a side trip to BCN to do a two-day working interview with a colleague there juuust in case TFG wins. May these frantic months of brushing up on Castillan Spanish and learning Catalan be una pèrdua de temps*.
A waste of time
posted by chainringtattoo at 9:51 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
A waste of time
posted by chainringtattoo at 9:51 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Dude, I was trying to cheer the room up by pointing out how this is a joke that gets dropped a lot and yet no one had dropped it yet, and wasn't that weird. Sheesh.
Sorry, EC.
You can expect me to vacillate wildly between, "Keep strong, dear ones!" and "Every single solitary one of us is well and truly fucked" all damn day.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:54 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Sorry, EC.
You can expect me to vacillate wildly between, "Keep strong, dear ones!" and "Every single solitary one of us is well and truly fucked" all damn day.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:54 AM on November 5 [17 favorites]
I am in an MA programme in London with a bunch of swing-state voters who remarked on how quiet their experience of this election was. I was always a West Coast voter, so I never got the Michigan level treatment, but it sounds absolutely exhausting.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:55 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:55 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I do believe Trump could solve the housing crisis in America. So many people would be moving out.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:55 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Small town rustbelt update:
A few days ago, a Harris/Walz door-knocker drove up from DC, at least a couple hundred miles travel.
Another this morning all the way from TX.
We're all still anticipating a coin toss, Schrodinger's WTF, but we're also still seeing as many Harris signs as Trump, in a region where MAGA had previously been comfortably loud and proud and excessive.
My better half and I voted at noon, at a church around the corner, under five minutes total, remarkable only for the contrast between banality and such gravity. It's a stunningly beautiful autumn day here, for whatever that's worth.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 9:56 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]
A few days ago, a Harris/Walz door-knocker drove up from DC, at least a couple hundred miles travel.
Another this morning all the way from TX.
We're all still anticipating a coin toss, Schrodinger's WTF, but we're also still seeing as many Harris signs as Trump, in a region where MAGA had previously been comfortably loud and proud and excessive.
My better half and I voted at noon, at a church around the corner, under five minutes total, remarkable only for the contrast between banality and such gravity. It's a stunningly beautiful autumn day here, for whatever that's worth.
posted by Claude Hoeper at 9:56 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Remember not to be disheartened by The Red Mirage, and to stand up for a full count of the votes so The Blue Shift can finish.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:57 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:57 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
Thivaia, since I think you and I live in the same town (alongside caviar2d2), I'd like to let you know that Cedar Falls Park is especially lovely today. I walked out there earlier to say hi to my coworkers who had taken the day off and were letting their kids run around the playground.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 9:58 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 9:58 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
It is true that reputable pollsters have altered the results of their polling to be more favorable to Trump to avoid understating his support. It's called weighting by recalled vote and you can read about it here.
It's true that most pollsters have used models to try to capture the Trump undercount that happened in 2016 and 2020. But it isn't yet clear whether they did enough to get there, just the right amount, or not enough.
The fact that they weighted up Trump votes doesn't imply that they will miss in our favor this time around. Trump could still outperform the polls and clean up. Or underperform and lose big. We just don't know.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
It's true that most pollsters have used models to try to capture the Trump undercount that happened in 2016 and 2020. But it isn't yet clear whether they did enough to get there, just the right amount, or not enough.
The fact that they weighted up Trump votes doesn't imply that they will miss in our favor this time around. Trump could still outperform the polls and clean up. Or underperform and lose big. We just don't know.
posted by Justinian at 9:59 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
The West Wing allowed big chunks of Gen Xers (and folks just to either end of that gen) to imagine a fantasy world where politics were a matter of clashing ideals which would be resolved with logic and good hearts. This, as opposed to [whatever your description of our shared dark reality is these days] and I will never forgive it for that.
Oh my gods, I couldn't possibly agree more. The minute someone posts a video or meme from TWW on my feed, my esteem for them drops like a rock. It's like The Worst faux representation of reality.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Oh my gods, I couldn't possibly agree more. The minute someone posts a video or meme from TWW on my feed, my esteem for them drops like a rock. It's like The Worst faux representation of reality.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The site banner seems pretty appropriate today: USA MeFites, go vote (hide)
posted by mittens at 10:01 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
posted by mittens at 10:01 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
Spaghetti and meatballs tonight. And garlic bread.
Nervous but ran into neighbors who voted today. 1+ hour wait in blue Ohio. Hoping Ohio can pull out some magic after the GOP fuckery with Issue 1 and our big push to secure abortion rights in the state constitution in 2023.
Take care of each other today. Thanks for being here, Blue.
posted by glaucon at 10:05 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Nervous but ran into neighbors who voted today. 1+ hour wait in blue Ohio. Hoping Ohio can pull out some magic after the GOP fuckery with Issue 1 and our big push to secure abortion rights in the state constitution in 2023.
Take care of each other today. Thanks for being here, Blue.
posted by glaucon at 10:05 AM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Regarding the popular vote thing - Congratulations on your touchdown, we’re playing basketball unfortunately
posted by thedaniel at 10:05 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by thedaniel at 10:05 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
A lot of people took solace in The West Wing when GWB was president, leading the country down a dark place. I just moved abroad. About the same level of abdication, really.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:06 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:06 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I just can't get Rush's 'Bastille Day' out of my head today for some reason.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:06 AM on November 5
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:06 AM on November 5
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
(thanks, carry on)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:09 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
(thanks, carry on)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:09 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Fuck the polls. It's the worst coverage ever. It's astrology, it's playing with chicken guts. Remember Pod Save America? I used to listen to that until it became a poll show, just three men discussing fantasy percentages of imaginary demographics. What do middle class white college educated women think about the Taylor Swift endorsement? Let's break these bullshit numbers down!
The numbers are bullshit, ok? Meaningless. It's lazy journalism. The guilty secret of pollsters is that their results come from the type of people that answer polls. People that do internet surveys and answer rando phonecalls.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
The numbers are bullshit, ok? Meaningless. It's lazy journalism. The guilty secret of pollsters is that their results come from the type of people that answer polls. People that do internet surveys and answer rando phonecalls.
posted by adept256 at 10:15 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.
That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:16 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.
That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:16 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Here Alan Lichtman explains on CNN's Insight with Haslinda Amin why he continues to predict that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win this election.
I lost the link where Walz himself interviews Lichtman but will post it when I find it. But be my guest if one of you finds it first. It was a very interesting discussion.
posted by y2karl at 10:17 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I lost the link where Walz himself interviews Lichtman but will post it when I find it. But be my guest if one of you finds it first. It was a very interesting discussion.
posted by y2karl at 10:17 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Just a moment here to raise a toast to all of my fellow deluded assholes who thought that if they could just prove TFG had committed a bunch of crimes then maybe he would be in jail and/or not run.
That was some tasty fantasizing we did, y'all!
(sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:17 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
That was some tasty fantasizing we did, y'all!
(sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:17 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
I just looked back and realized that the 2020 results weren't called until Saturday of the week of voting. I had completely forgotten that.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:18 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:18 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided? It's like one person's indigestion could decide the election.
posted by dances_with_sneetche".. So let's look at the amygdala.."
posted by pepcorn at 10:20 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetche".. So let's look at the amygdala.."
posted by pepcorn at 10:20 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
It felt like it was several Saturdays later.
I remember going out on my front porch when it was announced and our nice neighbor across the street walked out onto hers at the same time and jubilantly threw her arms in the air and went, “YES! FUCK. YES!!!!”
We kind of stared at each other smiling for a minute then I went back inside. What a day.
posted by glaucon at 10:21 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
I remember going out on my front porch when it was announced and our nice neighbor across the street walked out onto hers at the same time and jubilantly threw her arms in the air and went, “YES! FUCK. YES!!!!”
We kind of stared at each other smiling for a minute then I went back inside. What a day.
posted by glaucon at 10:21 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Fuck the polls. It's the worst coverage ever. It's astrology, it's playing with chicken guts.
On a related note, Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading to try and divine Trump's future.
Her first card for Trump, the 5 of Cups drawn upright, signifies a sense of "loss, grief, unwelcome change, disappointment, and/or emotional suffering."
posted by delfin at 10:27 AM on November 5 [41 favorites]
On a related note, Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading to try and divine Trump's future.
Her first card for Trump, the 5 of Cups drawn upright, signifies a sense of "loss, grief, unwelcome change, disappointment, and/or emotional suffering."
posted by delfin at 10:27 AM on November 5 [41 favorites]
For him that could describe either a loss or a win.
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:29 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 10:29 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Semi-related... working on an AskMe. Here's what I have so far:
Title: OH MY GAWD
Question: Holy shit y'all, how do I even today? WTF WTF WTF how the hell. Chrisfuckingsakes, goddam goddam. [Hyperventilating noises]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:32 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Title: OH MY GAWD
Question: Holy shit y'all, how do I even today? WTF WTF WTF how the hell. Chrisfuckingsakes, goddam goddam. [Hyperventilating noises]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:32 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
busted_crayons: "checking the very comprehensive list of tags, we have "Taiwan" and "Ukraine" and we are still evidently aspiring to general concern about "HumanRights".
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia"."
Still catching up on this thread, but the tags are all mine. I usually do a pass at the very end, going through the post and adding topics as they appear. But after mostly finishing it last night, I added another round of news links eeearly this morning and didn't think to add more tags (hence no SNL, Texas, Vaccines, etc.). I'll try to update the list later when I'm not on my phone.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:34 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
mods, can we at least pretend we give a fuck on any sort of consistent basis and add the "Palestine" tag that right now looks aggressively and pointedly omitted? not even asking for an "Israel" tag to match "Russia"."
Still catching up on this thread, but the tags are all mine. I usually do a pass at the very end, going through the post and adding topics as they appear. But after mostly finishing it last night, I added another round of news links eeearly this morning and didn't think to add more tags (hence no SNL, Texas, Vaccines, etc.). I'll try to update the list later when I'm not on my phone.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:34 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I voted last Saturday, but my place of employment has a policy of letting people out to vote and leaving them clocked in while they do, so that's nice and several coworkers are taking advantage of it.
I'm still hoping I can avoid obsessively hitting refresh on the news sites tonight.
posted by sotonohito at 10:35 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I'm still hoping I can avoid obsessively hitting refresh on the news sites tonight.
posted by sotonohito at 10:35 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
DOT, there's a thread for that.
Ah, that helps.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:35 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Ah, that helps.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:35 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
a friend texted this to me from Threads, from Amy Siskind (not sure her sourcing)
amy_siskind
6m6 minutes ago
Holy cow! 🔥🔥🔥
Philadelphia is estimated to be at 71.3% of total 2020 turnout as of 11:17 AM EST
Votes So Far in 2024: 528,900
2020 Total Votes: 741,377
I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm, so whis would not include any of those 1.9 million votes, 56% of which came from registered Dems and 11% from independents.
posted by kensington314 at 10:36 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
amy_siskind
6m6 minutes ago
Holy cow! 🔥🔥🔥
Philadelphia is estimated to be at 71.3% of total 2020 turnout as of 11:17 AM EST
Votes So Far in 2024: 528,900
2020 Total Votes: 741,377
I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm, so whis would not include any of those 1.9 million votes, 56% of which came from registered Dems and 11% from independents.
posted by kensington314 at 10:36 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I'm as anxious as many of you, and was certainly traumatized by 2016, but like I've said, things are quite different, now.
Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
Yeah, this, it's the people that care the least that get to decide for the rest of us. The fuck.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:37 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I mean, yeah, but neither side can claim a majority without roping in a hefty chunk of the "undecided" fuckwits who mindlessly flip the switch back and forth between D & R based on vibes, what they heard at the water cooler, what was on SNL this week, and their mostly fictitious grasp of recent history and world politics.
Yeah, this, it's the people that care the least that get to decide for the rest of us. The fuck.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:37 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
(Anyone wanting a little reassurance about the polls and how they're actually not very predictive these days may want to look at my MeFi Projects post, Problems with Polls, especially the stuff under "Looking at Other Data Instead of Polls." )
I haven't had a chance yet to add today's update from the poll nerds at electoral-vote.com, which includes this:
posted by kristi at 10:39 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I haven't had a chance yet to add today's update from the poll nerds at electoral-vote.com, which includes this:
it is very hard to filter out biases, wishful thinking, etc. This said, neither one of us has particular confidence in the polls this year, which is why we commenced the series on issues/concerns with polling. And, truth be told, we would have written about five more items in that series, but we ran out of time. There are a lot of facts on the ground that are very difficult to reconcile with the polling. For example, what about Kamala Harris' much stronger ground game? What about Harris' (apparent) much greater enthusiasm, as indicated by raising over $1 billion, in particular? Are we really to believe that substantial numbers of Black and brown men moved in Trump's direction, after having voted for two Democrats (one of them a woman) in the past two cycles? How could Harris be doing substantially worse than Joe Biden, given the tail winds provided by the abortion issue?The polls have been wrong a lot in the past few years. Here's hoping the actual results show a clear win (wins, up and down the ballot).
posted by kristi at 10:39 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Maybe we should have metafilter chat going for simple venting or connecting. (I see three people there, though they are not commenting recently, other than me.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:39 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:39 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I am not an extreme poll skeptic but I'm a soft poll skeptic, and whenever I look under the hood of a poll a lot of the efforts at "data science" have the more distinct feel of "darts thrown at a board." Caveat: I am not a statistician or modeler of any sort of data.
Anyway, I don't think we know things are a tie. I think the polls have created an epistemic sense that there is a tie, and we should all downgrade that sense to the status of shrug emoji. We'll know if it was a tie when the votes are counted. Til then we have the facts on the ground, of which there are many in both directions, and they are badly reported by most news sites, in favor of copy-pasting polling data.
posted by kensington314 at 10:41 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I am not an extreme poll skeptic but I'm a soft poll skeptic, and whenever I look under the hood of a poll a lot of the efforts at "data science" have the more distinct feel of "darts thrown at a board." Caveat: I am not a statistician or modeler of any sort of data.
Anyway, I don't think we know things are a tie. I think the polls have created an epistemic sense that there is a tie, and we should all downgrade that sense to the status of shrug emoji. We'll know if it was a tie when the votes are counted. Til then we have the facts on the ground, of which there are many in both directions, and they are badly reported by most news sites, in favor of copy-pasting polling data.
posted by kensington314 at 10:41 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
1. John Lewis Voting Rights Act
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
4. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico
Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
posted by rikschell at 10:45 AM on November 5 [56 favorites]
2. Four new supreme court seats (to match the 13 circuit districts)
3. Increase the size of the house to 650 representatives (reduces discrepancies between the smallest states and the largest states, and also improves the distribution of electoral votes)
4. Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico
Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
posted by rikschell at 10:45 AM on November 5 [56 favorites]
The wildcard in Coup II is going to be Speaker Mike Johnson. There are possible ways he can mess with the electoral vote if particular states play shenanigans with their vote counting.
Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
posted by nobody at 10:45 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
posted by nobody at 10:45 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
See also Eric Garcia in the Independent: I followed Harris and Trump round North Carolina. It’s clear to me who’s going to win
posted by y2karl at 10:46 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 10:46 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Capitol Police: "Our officers just arrested a man who was stopped during our screening process at the Capitol Visitor Center (CVC). The man smelled like fuel, had a torch & a flare gun." I hope it will get no worse, but I fear it will. Thanks to the Capitol Police and all other law enforcement who are working to avert another Jan 6.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:47 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:47 AM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Fox News had a fortune teller on doing a tarot reading
Basically, we're living in a scene-by-scene remake of "Network", from 1976.
posted by gimonca at 10:48 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Basically, we're living in a scene-by-scene remake of "Network", from 1976.
posted by gimonca at 10:48 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
(4. Statehood for DC
5. Amend Jones Act to apply only to the continental48 49 states
6. Statehood for PR if PR residents vote for it)
posted by thecaddy at 10:52 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
5. Amend Jones Act to apply only to the continental
6. Statehood for PR if PR residents vote for it)
posted by thecaddy at 10:52 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Have we discussed on the blue the recent, low-key push to bring low information/apolitical male voters over to Harris by placing ads on Pornhub, et al. advising them that Trump (via Project 2025) intends to ban pornography?
Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:53 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:53 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Like are we talking about pollsters (people who admis polls) or modelers?
Pollsters are modelers. Response rates have become so abysmal that a lot of the action is in the reweighting they have to do to get back to something vaguely representative. Can't remember the link but Josh Clinton had a little piece on this in the last few weeks.
That's before the modeling that's inherent in any kind of likely voter screen. I really wish someone would try reporting results just directly weighted by each respondents' estimated probability of turnout.
That makes sense, and why so many of the polls are so close together.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:53 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
RE: that Eric Garcia piece, reading that actually made me weep with anticipatory relief. If Harris actually wins NC (my poor embattled state), I plan to lie down and cry for like a week.
posted by rikschell at 10:53 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 10:53 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
I voted in a presidential election today for the first time (I became a US citizen in Jan 2021, though I've been living in the US since the 90s). I'm in the bluest of blue counties in the bluest of blue states so my vote won't move any needles but I got the sticker and the pen and the selfie. I'm going to a bar later with my partner because he wants to be with people if the news is bad (though I know we likely won't know tonight).
posted by matcha action at 10:55 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]
posted by matcha action at 10:55 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]
My husband and I live in Washington and found some third-party voters in Pennsylvania to vote swap with. So that's two more Harris votes in Pennsylvania from us, and two more votes for some obscure Socialist in Washington from our vote-swapping partners who were delighted with the opportunity to vote for a candidate who didn't even make it onto the ballot in their state.
Other than that, we both voted a straight Dem ticket despite that feeling very weird after 20+ years of Libertarian Party activism. But we know how to prioritize: Defeat fascism now, bicker about tax policy later.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:55 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Other than that, we both voted a straight Dem ticket despite that feeling very weird after 20+ years of Libertarian Party activism. But we know how to prioritize: Defeat fascism now, bicker about tax policy later.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:55 AM on November 5 [28 favorites]
On Tyranny: Twenty lessons from the Twentieth Century by Timothy Snyder. It's a bus-stop read about resisting tyranny. Well worth a read for what we need to do on Wednesday, and Thursday, and all the days, regardless of the outcome. Youtube series narrated by the author.
Lesson titles for the unclicking:
1. Do not obey in advance.
2. Defend institutions.
3. Beware the one-party state.
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.
5. Remember professional ethics.
6. Be wary of paramilitaries.
7. Be reflective if you must be armed.
8. Stand out.
9. Be kind to our language.
10. Believe in truth.
11 . Investigate.
12. Make eye contact and small talk.
13. Practice corporeal politics.
14. Establish a private life.
15. Contribute to good causes.
16. Learn from peers in other countries.
17. Listen for dangerous words.
18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.
19. Be a patriot.
20. Be as courageous as you can
I hope you find this as useful as I have. Timothy does great work but I would avoid reading Blood Lands at this moment.
posted by adept256 at 10:57 AM on November 5 [36 favorites]
Lesson titles for the unclicking:
1. Do not obey in advance.
2. Defend institutions.
3. Beware the one-party state.
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.
5. Remember professional ethics.
6. Be wary of paramilitaries.
7. Be reflective if you must be armed.
8. Stand out.
9. Be kind to our language.
10. Believe in truth.
11 . Investigate.
12. Make eye contact and small talk.
13. Practice corporeal politics.
14. Establish a private life.
15. Contribute to good causes.
16. Learn from peers in other countries.
17. Listen for dangerous words.
18. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.
19. Be a patriot.
20. Be as courageous as you can
I hope you find this as useful as I have. Timothy does great work but I would avoid reading Blood Lands at this moment.
posted by adept256 at 10:57 AM on November 5 [36 favorites]
And... Maggie Haberman shares where Trump campaign stands on Election Day tldr: they're sweating bullets.
posted by y2karl at 10:58 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 10:58 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I just looked back and realized that the 2020 results weren't called until Saturday of the week of voting. I had completely forgotten that.
I'm gonna need a bigger pizza.
posted by mazola at 10:59 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I'm gonna need a bigger pizza.
posted by mazola at 10:59 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
And more booze.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:00 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:00 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I chose to get a covid/flu double-vax last night so I'd guarantee feeling like absolute crap all day. It worked! I'm just having a miserable time and either that'll feel prophetic or waking up tomorrow (ish) to good news will feel like a total resurrection. Truly I am a genius (/sarcasm)
posted by Tomorrowful at 11:01 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
posted by Tomorrowful at 11:01 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Just noting down that if America manages to vote well enough today, Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker already, come January 6th. (The new congress gets seated on Jan. 3rd.)
There are tactics that Johnson can employ before then, if he acts in concert with corrupt state legislatures. Elie Mystal laid out one version of it in a recent column; essentially, an R state lege would stall a Harris certification based on "obvious fraud," Johnson would refuse to do what Pelosi did in 2020 and allow for extension of certification deadlines, and Johnson would then shrug and say "That state failed to provide valid electors for any candidate, so they will not be counted."
It is not One Weird Trick that can simply flip the election with ease, of course. There are many other factors involved -- Governors, Secretaries of State, lawsuits, court rulings, and the necessity of complete buy-in from all of those involved in the theft. Not all Republicans on state legislatures will go along with every filthy stunt that Ivan Raiklin or Roger Stone can think up. The public outcry would be stupendous. There are plenty of people who favor Trump as POTUS who are not prepared to (quite literally) go to jail if a legal-coup attempt fails.
But one must never take their eyes completely off of bastards like these. Team Harris's lawyers certainly won't.
posted by delfin at 11:01 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]
There are tactics that Johnson can employ before then, if he acts in concert with corrupt state legislatures. Elie Mystal laid out one version of it in a recent column; essentially, an R state lege would stall a Harris certification based on "obvious fraud," Johnson would refuse to do what Pelosi did in 2020 and allow for extension of certification deadlines, and Johnson would then shrug and say "That state failed to provide valid electors for any candidate, so they will not be counted."
It is not One Weird Trick that can simply flip the election with ease, of course. There are many other factors involved -- Governors, Secretaries of State, lawsuits, court rulings, and the necessity of complete buy-in from all of those involved in the theft. Not all Republicans on state legislatures will go along with every filthy stunt that Ivan Raiklin or Roger Stone can think up. The public outcry would be stupendous. There are plenty of people who favor Trump as POTUS who are not prepared to (quite literally) go to jail if a legal-coup attempt fails.
But one must never take their eyes completely off of bastards like these. Team Harris's lawyers certainly won't.
posted by delfin at 11:01 AM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Just voted in Philadelphia. We've been voting in the same location since 2012. There was a line out the door, which we've never seen here. And that's at 2pm local time.
Best of all, there was an ice cream truck parked out side giving out free cones to everyone with an I Voted sticker.
posted by Eddie Mars at 11:04 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]
Best of all, there was an ice cream truck parked out side giving out free cones to everyone with an I Voted sticker.
posted by Eddie Mars at 11:04 AM on November 5 [33 favorites]
As a Canadian living less than 10km from the border, I feel like I want to say something... but I'm not sure what. We're stressed up here too, but clearly it's not comparable to what you're going through. Those of us hiding up north will make it through the next four years regardless of what happens (with a bruise or several, but we'll survive), and I sincerely hope ya'll do too.
Hoping with all the hope I have that I will be celebrating with you all soon. I wish I could do more.
posted by cgg at 11:06 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Hoping with all the hope I have that I will be celebrating with you all soon. I wish I could do more.
posted by cgg at 11:06 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I am really looking forward to videos of Philladelphia residents dancing in the streets like in 2020.
Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
posted by ocschwar at 11:07 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
posted by ocschwar at 11:07 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
In NC, Carrboro/Chapel Hill have long been safely blue but I'm telling you this year is different. Like Dems figured out there's a difference between "safely blue" and "huge turnout blue because we're winning this fucking state."
Doug Emhoff was in Carrboro 2 weeks ago. My daughter's school dismissal was messed up on Friday because Jill Biden was in Carrboro. Democrats aren't fucking around with NC, they are taking it.
Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.
(Tofu Tuesday is already the best day to get Carrburritos, so that's just a cherry on top, thivaia)
posted by jermsplan at 11:08 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
Doug Emhoff was in Carrboro 2 weeks ago. My daughter's school dismissal was messed up on Friday because Jill Biden was in Carrboro. Democrats aren't fucking around with NC, they are taking it.
Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.
(Tofu Tuesday is already the best day to get Carrburritos, so that's just a cherry on top, thivaia)
posted by jermsplan at 11:08 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
Just voted in Philadelphia. We've been voting in the same location since 2012. There was a line out the door, which we've never seen here. And that's at 2pm local time.
Per this person who claims to be getting info from a friend in the Harris campaign in DC, some parts of Philly were already at 100% of 2020 turnout by just after lunchtime. Also, turnout demographics are looking like 2022 everywhere.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:10 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Per this person who claims to be getting info from a friend in the Harris campaign in DC, some parts of Philly were already at 100% of 2020 turnout by just after lunchtime. Also, turnout demographics are looking like 2022 everywhere.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:10 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
If Democrats manage to take the house (and get seated as the new majority) then electoral vote count shenanigans become very difficult as Speaker Jeffries can just decide not to count votes and let Harris as VP become president on March 4. (Amendment 12).
If Republicans hold on to the house I will be very nervous if it is at all close.
PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
posted by being_quiet at 11:10 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
If Republicans hold on to the house I will be very nervous if it is at all close.
PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
posted by being_quiet at 11:10 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Apologies for my language, I swear when I'm nervous or drinking.
so which is it? :)
I know: Why not both?
posted by martin q blank at 11:11 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
so which is it? :)
I know: Why not both?
posted by martin q blank at 11:11 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Am I the only one who hates how a nationwide election boils down to one state and then to some bellwether county in that state and then in that county down to those who remained undecided?
Don't forget, our health care was saved by one vote in Congress.
posted by Melismata at 11:11 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Don't forget, our health care was saved by one vote in Congress.
posted by Melismata at 11:11 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I am really looking forward to videos of Philladelphia residents dancing in the streets like in 2020. Can we do this tonight or tomorrow, though? Took a while last time.
I think she's going to crush him so hard that it's a clear Harris victory this evening.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:13 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
I think she's going to crush him so hard that it's a clear Harris victory this evening.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:13 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
If anyone needs a pick-me-up tonight, something to watch other than election coverage, I would like to recommend the film Becky and its even more delightful sequel The Wrath of Becky (which you can skip straight to, if you like). These are films about violent Neo-Nazis who make the mistake of fucking with Becky, the world's angriest, most vicious, most vindictive teenage girl.
They're like the Home Alone movies if instead of two bumbling burglars, it had the villains from Green Room, and if instead of Kevin McAllister tricking them into stepping on nails, a cackling teenage girl brutally murdered them.
So it's a good time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:13 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
They're like the Home Alone movies if instead of two bumbling burglars, it had the villains from Green Room, and if instead of Kevin McAllister tricking them into stepping on nails, a cackling teenage girl brutally murdered them.
So it's a good time.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:13 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
Stop being fucking cowards and fight back.
Much will come down to the Senate. If the Republicans reclaim the majority, none of the above will happen at least until the next election.
If the Democrats hold, which I hope, the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone, and Sinema for one will have lost her seat for blocking legislation favorable to Democrats.
I hope another lavishly funded gadfly does not emerge to deny the Democrats a governing majority.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Much will come down to the Senate. If the Republicans reclaim the majority, none of the above will happen at least until the next election.
If the Democrats hold, which I hope, the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone, and Sinema for one will have lost her seat for blocking legislation favorable to Democrats.
I hope another lavishly funded gadfly does not emerge to deny the Democrats a governing majority.
posted by Gelatin at 11:14 AM on November 5 [15 favorites]
I voted in a presidential election today for the first time (I became a US citizen in Jan 2021, though I've been living in the US since the 90s).
Thank you, fellow citizen!
And to the rest of you (all) who voted.
posted by Gelatin at 11:16 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Thank you, fellow citizen!
And to the rest of you (all) who voted.
posted by Gelatin at 11:16 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
ProPublica (@ProPublica@newsie.social)
It’s Election Day! ProPublica reporters live & work in 26 states. Today, our reporters are on the ground, on the lookout for what’s going right and what isn’t.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:18 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Got a tip? Contact us at propublica.org/tips
You can also text, call or Signal message us: 917-512-0201
Agreed and I love that post, but I still don't get how things are a complete tie (supposedly) anyway after all of this?
I've said for a while now (if not here) that Trump is the only reason this race is close. Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.
This is a year much like 2022 that should have been at least a low-grade blowout for the Republicans but, like then, they fucked themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I've said for a while now (if not here) that Trump is the only reason this race is close. Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.
This is a year much like 2022 that should have been at least a low-grade blowout for the Republicans but, like then, they fucked themselves.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:19 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
A blog post that prompted Discourse Blog to say 'I’m not sure what the point of this is, except to demonstrate conclusively on the eve of an enormously important election that the voting public is comprised of the dumbest people you could possibly imagine':
How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024 (YouGov)
posted by box at 11:24 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024 (YouGov)
posted by box at 11:24 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
The electoral college realistically won't go away, but uncapping the House of Representatives from the current limit of 435 can solve its most glaring problem (and only requires passing a law, not an amendment). I don't have a link handy to the analysis, but someone re-tallied electoral votes for every presidential election under the assumption that the House were sized with the cube root of the population (which would put it upper 600s / low 700s for now). With that apportionment, every electoral vote agrees with the popular vote. Uncap the House!
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 11:25 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 11:25 AM on November 5 [32 favorites]
Perceptions and feelings about the economy are still really sour, mostly because there are a LOT of people whose earnings have been knocked back a decade or more by a few years of bad inflation.
I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that, because most voters actually experience all prices as a source of pain. The inflation ain't her fault obviously.
Agree with GCUSaFoG that Trump probably was the worst possible Republican candidate in this environment. So I still think Harris will eke it out.
posted by kensington314 at 11:25 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that, because most voters actually experience all prices as a source of pain. The inflation ain't her fault obviously.
Agree with GCUSaFoG that Trump probably was the worst possible Republican candidate in this environment. So I still think Harris will eke it out.
posted by kensington314 at 11:25 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
PS. Y'all are making me miss Carrboro.
With Elmo's gone, is it really Carrboro?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:26 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
With Elmo's gone, is it really Carrboro?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:26 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
BTW, I know we had a thread on this already, but: If you're looking for a place to track results tonight, let me recommend DecisionDeskHQ.
Ignore the cheesy name; they have some of the smartest people in data journalism and are sort of the contract-out elections data analysis house for a lot of news organizations.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Ignore the cheesy name; they have some of the smartest people in data journalism and are sort of the contract-out elections data analysis house for a lot of news organizations.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices, and no voter believes that
The trouble is that deflation is much, much worse than inflation, even if it feels better from a sticker-shock-at-the-grocery-store perspective.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The trouble is that deflation is much, much worse than inflation, even if it feels better from a sticker-shock-at-the-grocery-store perspective.
The TLDR is that when you have a change to aggregate demand prices must move to offset this - including wages. Upward changes aren't really any issue, because hey, who doesn't like to be paid more (even if it's just nominal)? However, individuals are extremely hesitant to accept lower nominal wages and this "stickiness" results in employers having to fire people because they cannot afford to retain them at those elevated wages, so in return you end up with significant unemployment. This can also cause a vicious cycle because if people have little to no income because they lost their job they will be more hesitant to spend and this can cause a greater shock to aggregate demand.(via)
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:30 AM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Does anyone know if Jimmy Carter was able to cast his vote? Last I heard, he was trying to stay alive long enough to make it happen.
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 11:30 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 11:30 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
ProPublica seems pretty great. Pretty sure we give them money every year.
OTOH, I keep getting messages on my phone/email about how TFG is outspending us and can you chip in? WTF
It's over, mostly. There is very little money that needs to be spent at this point. Just, make the notifications stop! (don't text back "STOP", just block and wait for the next number...)
The amount of emails I have gotten from Kamala, Tim, Barack, just wow. I assume we are on first name basis now.
Disappointed he didn't show up at Homecoming/Parents weekend. I was there. Would have been pretty hard to deal with if I were hanging in the quad, waiting for my next class, and Barack and Michelle were just chillin there.
We're down to like 4 hours now? Going to be a long 4 hours. Not going to go pick up pizza.
posted by Windopaene at 11:31 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
OTOH, I keep getting messages on my phone/email about how TFG is outspending us and can you chip in? WTF
It's over, mostly. There is very little money that needs to be spent at this point. Just, make the notifications stop! (don't text back "STOP", just block and wait for the next number...)
The amount of emails I have gotten from Kamala, Tim, Barack, just wow. I assume we are on first name basis now.
Disappointed he didn't show up at Homecoming/Parents weekend. I was there. Would have been pretty hard to deal with if I were hanging in the quad, waiting for my next class, and Barack and Michelle were just chillin there.
We're down to like 4 hours now? Going to be a long 4 hours. Not going to go pick up pizza.
posted by Windopaene at 11:31 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Jimmy Carter did manage to vote, yes.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5 [29 favorites]
Practice self-care today, y'all. I went with a meatless dog for lunch.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:32 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Jimmy Carter, at age 100, casts his 2024 ballot by mail (AP, Oct. 16)
posted by box at 11:32 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
posted by box at 11:32 AM on November 5 [27 favorites]
I do think if Harris loses, inflation is a large part of it. Democratic muckety-mucks seem to genuinely believe that a decrease in the rate of inflation means a decrease in prices,
The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting. They seem to have landed on a "you just don't get it, the economy is actually doing great" approach.
Like naw man, I don't give a shit that the rate of inflation is apparently back down to normal levels or that macroeconomic indicators show the economy is strong in the aggregate. I care that grocery shopping or buying supplies for my baby are expensive as fuck. Stop telling me I'm stupid for worrying about that.
posted by star gentle uterus at 11:32 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting. They seem to have landed on a "you just don't get it, the economy is actually doing great" approach.
Like naw man, I don't give a shit that the rate of inflation is apparently back down to normal levels or that macroeconomic indicators show the economy is strong in the aggregate. I care that grocery shopping or buying supplies for my baby are expensive as fuck. Stop telling me I'm stupid for worrying about that.
posted by star gentle uterus at 11:32 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024
I'm as surprised as these people are that Calliou voted for Cornel West
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:33 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
I'm as surprised as these people are that Calliou voted for Cornel West
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:33 AM on November 5 [13 favorites]
If memory serves me right Carter early voted, so yes, he made it. And hopefully he will live to see Harris win this election, as well.
posted by Gelatin at 11:33 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 11:33 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Well, I voted. I was a bit surprised to see a lady in a Harris shirt in my 80+% Trump voting location (I guess Trump/Harris apparel is OK in PA polling places). Unfortunately, my mother voted for Trump, which just reminded me that a reluctant vote for Trump counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote for Harris. I continue to be pessimistic.
posted by dirigibleman at 11:33 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 11:33 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Mailed in my ballot weeks ago. For dealing with my nerves today, my motto's going to be: "Drink early and drink often!"
posted by lock robster at 11:34 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 11:34 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I was just going to post about self-care. (Not doing great btw)
Even if all the bad things happen, we will still be able to make things better. We need you to help!
posted by Windopaene at 11:34 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Even if all the bad things happen, we will still be able to make things better. We need you to help!
posted by Windopaene at 11:34 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
A Steve Kornacki Elections Feed (Bluesky)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:35 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:35 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?
posted by ginger.beef at 11:35 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
punk? country?
posted by ginger.beef at 11:35 AM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Picking up my wife after work to go vote here in NC. Turnout in our county is usually pretty low, so I’m not expecting to have a long wait.
posted by Roger Pittman at 11:36 AM on November 5
posted by Roger Pittman at 11:36 AM on November 5
The Dem messaging on this has been absolutely abysmal to the point of being outright insulting.
Harris talks about price gouging, the price of groceries, money for new parents, etc so I've found the messaging to be quite excellent. 🤟
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:37 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Harris talks about price gouging, the price of groceries, money for new parents, etc so I've found the messaging to be quite excellent. 🤟
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:37 AM on November 5 [21 favorites]
punk? country?
Punktry. Maybe like Mojo Nixon or something.
posted by grubi at 11:37 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Punktry. Maybe like Mojo Nixon or something.
posted by grubi at 11:37 AM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Mrs. Example and I are dual citizens living here in the UK. We voted absentee a couple of months ago, so our work is done for now.
I never eat pizza (because I feel a little gross afterwards from the cheese), but we have ordered in and eaten pizza and have laid in a good supply of alcohol. There will be cookies later.
We've declared a moratorium tonight on our TV watching--no crime shows, no grim dramas, and absolutely no live streaming of election results (not least because it'll be really late and I have to work in the morning). The highlight of tonight's viewing is The Great British Bake Off. There may be a little Wallace and Gromit.
It's still not ideal circumstances, but I think we've managed as well as we can. Good luck to us all.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 11:38 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I never eat pizza (because I feel a little gross afterwards from the cheese), but we have ordered in and eaten pizza and have laid in a good supply of alcohol. There will be cookies later.
We've declared a moratorium tonight on our TV watching--no crime shows, no grim dramas, and absolutely no live streaming of election results (not least because it'll be really late and I have to work in the morning). The highlight of tonight's viewing is The Great British Bake Off. There may be a little Wallace and Gromit.
It's still not ideal circumstances, but I think we've managed as well as we can. Good luck to us all.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 11:38 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?
Definitely punk. Specifically the Linda Lindas.
posted by susiswimmer at 11:38 AM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
posted by Windopaene at 11:39 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 11:39 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I threw out the candy I was bolting. I used a single moment of strength to defeat countless moments of weakness. I will probably find a loud movie or viddy game later.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:40 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:40 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I thought there was no light-hearted election analysis until I saw How Americans think fictional characters would vote in 2024. But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:40 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 11:40 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
My Mother Voted for Trump is a song title waiting to happen
punk? country?
Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
punk? country?
Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5 [3 favorites]
But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump FFS.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump FFS.
posted by signal at 11:42 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
I see your Archie and I raise you a 12% Knope for Trump. yyyyyyyyyyyyeahkNOPE
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:43 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I see your Archie and I raise you a 12% Knope for Trump. yyyyyyyyyyyyeahkNOPE
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:43 AM on November 5 [4 favorites]
punk? country?
Beat Farmers
my mom came out and voted for *****
hubba hubba hubba hubba hubba
posted by flabdablet at 11:43 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Beat Farmers
my mom came out and voted for *****
hubba hubba hubba hubba hubba
posted by flabdablet at 11:43 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
Well if you don’t have Mojo Nixon, your store could use some fixin
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Well if you don’t have Mojo Nixon, your store could use some fixin
posted by aspersioncast at 11:46 AM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Dread Zeppelin in Elvis impersonator voice to the tune of Immigrant Song.
They way they sneak 'Exodus' into the song kills me every time I hear it.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:47 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
They way they sneak 'Exodus' into the song kills me every time I hear it.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:47 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
the good news is that Manchin and Sinema are gone
I have good news and bad news!
Good news: Dan Osborn has a chance of winning the Nebraska Senate race as an independent.
Bad news: He's said he "won't caucus with Democrats or Republicans", and he could be a pivotal vote in an evenly-divided Senate. Whether he becomes the new Manchinema remains to be seen.
posted by gimonca at 11:47 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I have good news and bad news!
Good news: Dan Osborn has a chance of winning the Nebraska Senate race as an independent.
Bad news: He's said he "won't caucus with Democrats or Republicans", and he could be a pivotal vote in an evenly-divided Senate. Whether he becomes the new Manchinema remains to be seen.
posted by gimonca at 11:47 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
The big thing I took away from the "fictional characters voting" article is that even Trump supporters think that the Joker would vote for Trump. I have no clue what that means, but it surely means something.
(Also, it is surely not the case that every villain would vote for Trump. Hannibal Lecter would clearly be a Harris voter.)
posted by heraplem at 11:47 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
(Also, it is surely not the case that every villain would vote for Trump. Hannibal Lecter would clearly be a Harris voter.)
posted by heraplem at 11:47 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
It's not Carrburritos, but Roxy the dog was pretty pleased to get a Sunrise biscuit this morning. I think the most interesting sign I've seen around here is a skeleton holding a sign that said, "The other guys are CREEPY!"
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:48 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 11:48 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Blanche Deveraux is too high and Hank Hill is too low.
posted by biblioPHL at 11:48 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by biblioPHL at 11:48 AM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Hadn't thought of Mojo Nixon in a long time...
He passed this year. RIP. A frikkin' legend gone too early.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:48 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
He passed this year. RIP. A frikkin' legend gone too early.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:48 AM on November 5 [16 favorites]
90% of “inflation” was businesses and landlords jacking up margins because “inflation”:
profits vs wages, 2009 = 100
I’m on my phone so can’t be arsed to create a “jobs” graph, but on the national aggregate level the job market has never been so favorable (I suspect the boomer retirement wave is a very nice tailwind now)…
posted by torokunai at 11:49 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
profits vs wages, 2009 = 100
I’m on my phone so can’t be arsed to create a “jobs” graph, but on the national aggregate level the job market has never been so favorable (I suspect the boomer retirement wave is a very nice tailwind now)…
posted by torokunai at 11:49 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
My Mama Voted for Trump and My Daddy Burnt All the Books is the bleakest Mojo Nixon timeline
posted by ginger.beef at 11:50 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 11:50 AM on November 5 [14 favorites]
I voted last week, donated all summer, can't work at the polls... It's out of my control.
I have a pretty simple schedule for today. Dog park, food shop, home. Media blackout until midnight. I picked up the new Neal Stephenson book at the library, going to get General Tso chicken for dinner, phone off.
We started a pool with friends, "What Time Will Trump Declare Victory?" One dollar for every one minute, I put five down on between 11:01 and 11:06.
The big bottle of rum and a two liter bottle of cola is stashed in the fridge in case of emergency.
Thanks to chavenet for reminding me of "King of America," it's going on the soundtrack of tonight.
posted by Marky at 11:50 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I have a pretty simple schedule for today. Dog park, food shop, home. Media blackout until midnight. I picked up the new Neal Stephenson book at the library, going to get General Tso chicken for dinner, phone off.
We started a pool with friends, "What Time Will Trump Declare Victory?" One dollar for every one minute, I put five down on between 11:01 and 11:06.
The big bottle of rum and a two liter bottle of cola is stashed in the fridge in case of emergency.
Thanks to chavenet for reminding me of "King of America," it's going on the soundtrack of tonight.
posted by Marky at 11:50 AM on November 5 [7 favorites]
That 12% of people who think Leslie Knopes is voting for Trump haven't watched the show or aren't following the campaign, just wow, easiest one of them to figure out.
Also disagree with those who thinks Ron Swanson is voting for Trump. I mean McCain, Bush or guy with the binders, it's plausible, but not Trump. Swanson is the fantasy version of a Libertarian, I don't really believe people like that exists, but the character was principled, and cherished honesty and hard work....in the end, that character isn't voting for Trump.
Also Indiana Jones punches nazis he doesn't vote for then.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:52 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Also disagree with those who thinks Ron Swanson is voting for Trump. I mean McCain, Bush or guy with the binders, it's plausible, but not Trump. Swanson is the fantasy version of a Libertarian, I don't really believe people like that exists, but the character was principled, and cherished honesty and hard work....in the end, that character isn't voting for Trump.
Also Indiana Jones punches nazis he doesn't vote for then.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:52 AM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Because that seems like it could be a sleeping giant.
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and give him a terrible boner.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:54 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and give him a terrible boner.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:54 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I am strangely not nervous. It's a beautiful fall day, kids have the day off school, Americans are turning out in big numbers to cast their votes, and I voted last week. A million things can happen in the next few weeks, most of which are out of my hands. What if Trump wins? What if Kamala wins and Congressional shenanigans ensue? What if there's violence?
I don't know, but I don't see why I need to gird myself for any of that today, on Election Day. I refuse to let pollsters and white supremacists and the uninformed live rent-free in my head on Election Day. I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.
We'll see who wins this motherfucker, and what kind of country we're going to live in, when every vote is counted. I can wait.
So today in lieu of voting I got a haircut, because I want to look good for tomorrow, whatever that looks like.
posted by swift at 11:55 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I don't know, but I don't see why I need to gird myself for any of that today, on Election Day. I refuse to let pollsters and white supremacists and the uninformed live rent-free in my head on Election Day. I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.
We'll see who wins this motherfucker, and what kind of country we're going to live in, when every vote is counted. I can wait.
So today in lieu of voting I got a haircut, because I want to look good for tomorrow, whatever that looks like.
posted by swift at 11:55 AM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I was listening to some local American talk radio (out of Buffalo) yesterday and today, and the MAGA hosts seemed...subdued? Resigned? A lot of loosely-assembled blather about the value of decorum and civility - the last thing you'd expect from these types.
We might have something here, mates.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:58 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
We might have something here, mates.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:58 AM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Dick Van Dyke is still with us at 98 and posts a Youtube message for us.
posted by JHarris at 11:59 AM on November 5 [44 favorites]
posted by JHarris at 11:59 AM on November 5 [44 favorites]
Stressed Nation Asks Obama If It Can Bum 340 Million Cigarettes
posted by lock robster at 12:03 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 12:03 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
90% of “inflation” was businesses and landlords jacking up margins because “inflation”:
This is at least 90% false. The graph doesn't tell us much because profits are a much smaller share of the economy than wages. There was an increase in corporate profits, but the main drivers of inflation were "sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services." In other words, during the pandemic it was hard to get stuff, so people bid up prices in response to the shortages. (There were other causes, and there is still plenty of debate over the relative contributions.)
At the same time, we are in a period of strong real wage growth - real meaning even after adjusting for inflation- and inflation is low and stable. Still, we endured a period of historically high inflation, so prices are higher than before, and people really hate high price levels.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:04 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
This is at least 90% false. The graph doesn't tell us much because profits are a much smaller share of the economy than wages. There was an increase in corporate profits, but the main drivers of inflation were "sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services." In other words, during the pandemic it was hard to get stuff, so people bid up prices in response to the shortages. (There were other causes, and there is still plenty of debate over the relative contributions.)
At the same time, we are in a period of strong real wage growth - real meaning even after adjusting for inflation- and inflation is low and stable. Still, we endured a period of historically high inflation, so prices are higher than before, and people really hate high price levels.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:04 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Wow, that Dick Van Dyke video is amazing.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 12:05 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Winnie the Proust at 12:05 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
If all these businesses strangely all coordinated to jack up prices, why didn’t they do it earlier.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:07 PM on November 5
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:07 PM on November 5
I refuse to let Wolf Blitzer drive me to drink.
He can drive me. That way my wife and I can drink instead of one of us having to be the designated driver. (I kid. I'll be doing my drinking at home where it's cheap and I don't have to be around people if the news is bad...)
posted by jzb at 12:08 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
He can drive me. That way my wife and I can drink instead of one of us having to be the designated driver. (I kid. I'll be doing my drinking at home where it's cheap and I don't have to be around people if the news is bad...)
posted by jzb at 12:08 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
martin q blank: I know: Why not both?
Porque no los dos Equis?
posted by wenestvedt at 12:11 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Porque no los dos Equis?
posted by wenestvedt at 12:11 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
swift
Totally the wrong link, let's try again...
Can't find the line I want from Being There, but...
"I like to watch, television..."
posted by Windopaene at 12:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Totally the wrong link, let's try again...
Can't find the line I want from Being There, but...
"I like to watch, television..."
posted by Windopaene at 12:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I think (hope) people that are into betting as a “market indicator” are much more likely to trend rightward.
From Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem:
There's also some technical difficulties that make them complicated:
1. Pretty much every market contract different so arbitrage is way harder. It's not like buying wheat cheap in iowa and selling it dear in hawaii. More like buying pork in illinois and
2. People often don't understand what they're predicting. IEM's market has PRES24_WTA.rep at fifteen cents to win a dollar. Despite the name, WTA is not an electoral college outcome. The prospectus plainly states the contract is tied to the popular vote winner, and there's basically no way that's Trump. They've had to put up banners in the past about this when things looked catastrophically off.
3. Many informed participants are walled off. It's an open question whether US citizens can bet on politics like they can sports now. And in places where we can, like the IEM, there's a $500 cap.
4. Prediction markets have an implicit time component. You buy contracts now for a payoff later. Beyond the whole uncertainty of when Congress certifies the outcome (ugh), the further away the payoff is the more money you need to earn to break even vs the risk free rate of return. Which is substantially higher in 2024 than 2020. If the market is only off 3 percent of "correct," nobody will bother picking up those 3 pennies. I assume this shows up in spreads.
posted by pwnguin at 12:12 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
From Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem:
Money talks and bullshit walks, and prediction markets force people to put that money where their mouth is.There's basically a contingent that uses their money as "votes" rather than predictions, and unsurprisingly this crew leans conservative.
Some of the largest and most notable prediction markets to date have been around elections. The only problem? Prediction markets simply aren’t very good at political predictions.
There's also some technical difficulties that make them complicated:
1. Pretty much every market contract different so arbitrage is way harder. It's not like buying wheat cheap in iowa and selling it dear in hawaii. More like buying pork in illinois and
2. People often don't understand what they're predicting. IEM's market has PRES24_WTA.rep at fifteen cents to win a dollar. Despite the name, WTA is not an electoral college outcome. The prospectus plainly states the contract is tied to the popular vote winner, and there's basically no way that's Trump. They've had to put up banners in the past about this when things looked catastrophically off.
3. Many informed participants are walled off. It's an open question whether US citizens can bet on politics like they can sports now. And in places where we can, like the IEM, there's a $500 cap.
4. Prediction markets have an implicit time component. You buy contracts now for a payoff later. Beyond the whole uncertainty of when Congress certifies the outcome (ugh), the further away the payoff is the more money you need to earn to break even vs the risk free rate of return. Which is substantially higher in 2024 than 2020. If the market is only off 3 percent of "correct," nobody will bother picking up those 3 pennies. I assume this shows up in spreads.
posted by pwnguin at 12:12 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I believe PA counts early vote after 8pm
Thankfully at least this election they can start when polls opened at 7am. Philadelphia will be counting 24/7. Dancing TBD
posted by sepviva at 12:13 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Thankfully at least this election they can start when polls opened at 7am. Philadelphia will be counting 24/7. Dancing TBD
posted by sepviva at 12:13 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I am pretty sure I can take Wolf Blitzer in the Raiders of the Lost Ark Himalayan drinking game.
Well, at least until the Nazi's show up.
4 more hours? Sigh
EDIT: But as someone NOT DRINKING, the rest of you, don't. Bad drug
posted by Windopaene at 12:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Well, at least until the Nazi's show up.
4 more hours? Sigh
EDIT: But as someone NOT DRINKING, the rest of you, don't. Bad drug
posted by Windopaene at 12:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
My work involves a lot of local political advocacy especially with City Hall. Yesterday I posted my personal voting priorities, including putting the sole progressive running for mayor as #1. This should surprise absolutely no one. This morning, I noticed that our current mayor had *unfriended* me on fb. Which, her deep vindictive pettiness is one of the many reasons I can't support her reelection - there have been a few news articles but it is so much worse than that - and this is just a classically petty example of it. It's her professional fb account (I can see the 90+ mutual friends on there) and it's mostly just hilarious to me.
If you live in SF and haven't yet voted, please don't vote for her (also I answer questions and explain any of the things on SF and CA ballots as needed - ask away.)
posted by gingerbeer at 12:17 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
If you live in SF and haven't yet voted, please don't vote for her (also I answer questions and explain any of the things on SF and CA ballots as needed - ask away.)
posted by gingerbeer at 12:17 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Neither are notorious Nazi-punchers Captain America or Indiana Jones voting for Trump
Not to mention that Batman isn't voting for a convicted felon over a former prosecutor, and Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad. Apparently a lot of people who think they know these characters actually don't!
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:18 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Not to mention that Batman isn't voting for a convicted felon over a former prosecutor, and Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad. Apparently a lot of people who think they know these characters actually don't!
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:18 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
But to those 9 percent of respondents: No, Archie Bunker is not voting Harris.
TIL 91% of people don't remember Archie Bunker's Place
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
TIL 91% of people don't remember Archie Bunker's Place
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
"I just want to tell you both good luck, we're all counting on you."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:21 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 12:21 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Indiana Jones vote for a modern republican??? Who TF would think that?
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:22 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:22 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 12:25 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 12:25 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Frasier Crane is canonically a democrat voter, it was a whole episode
posted by BungaDunga at 12:25 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 12:25 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
No better time to go listen to Billy Bragg and Wilco tearing it up on Woody Guthrie's All You Fascists (Bound To Lose). Good luck to us all.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 12:27 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
posted by Sing Or Swim at 12:27 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup.
even funnier is that it's a tossup because more democrats think she'd vote Harris and more republicans think she'd vote Trump.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:28 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
even funnier is that it's a tossup because more democrats think she'd vote Harris and more republicans think she'd vote Trump.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:28 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I just placed a bet on Kamala Harris. I have never betted on anything in my whole life, but I can't donate to American politicians, so I'm trying to move the needle in some other way.
The thing is, if Trump wins, we can't escape. There is nowhere to go.
I have no idea how the future will be for my children and grandchildren, only that it will be wrong.
posted by mumimor at 12:28 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
The thing is, if Trump wins, we can't escape. There is nowhere to go.
I have no idea how the future will be for my children and grandchildren, only that it will be wrong.
posted by mumimor at 12:28 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Frasier Crane is canonically a democrat voter, it was a whole episode
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:30 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:30 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I suppose the silver lining of my boss landing early from her flight and there being a massive cock-up with the car service which caused her to have an enormous hissy fit is that it distracts me from....this.
(At least that's what I'm telling myself.)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
(At least that's what I'm telling myself.)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
On the 'how fictional characters would vote' train:
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
Joker: Votes for maximum chaos, so voting for Trump. But not with much enthusiasm- the joke's played out.
Harley Quinn: surreptitiously voting for Harris and hoping her pudding doesn't find out.
The Penguin: voting for Trump, after all, he's been promised a pardon for his campaign contributions.
The Riddler: voting for Harris and insufferably smug about how she's 'the smart candidate'.
Poison Ivy: unless Jill Stein is a chemically controlled pawn of Ivy, she's voting for Harris. Probably while plotting the assasination of Jill Stein.
Mr. Freeze: worried about global warming and health care and therefore voting for Harris.
Scarecrow: voting for Trump because there will be so much anxiety as well as captive experimental subjects if Trump wins.
Bane: Technically an illegal immigrant and unlikely to vote. But if he did, he'd be the one illegal Central American (Caribbean) immigrant that all the nativists will be pointing to in their claims about illegals voting.
Ra'as al Ghul: This sinister immortal who is plotting the downfall of civilization obviously sees a vote for Trump as the accelerationist choice.
Mad Hatter: voting for Trump. Jarvis Tetch and Jeffrey Epstein and DJT have a history together....
Clayface: voting for Harris, because he knows just how much of a phony Trump is.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 12:34 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
Joker: Votes for maximum chaos, so voting for Trump. But not with much enthusiasm- the joke's played out.
Harley Quinn: surreptitiously voting for Harris and hoping her pudding doesn't find out.
The Penguin: voting for Trump, after all, he's been promised a pardon for his campaign contributions.
The Riddler: voting for Harris and insufferably smug about how she's 'the smart candidate'.
Poison Ivy: unless Jill Stein is a chemically controlled pawn of Ivy, she's voting for Harris. Probably while plotting the assasination of Jill Stein.
Mr. Freeze: worried about global warming and health care and therefore voting for Harris.
Scarecrow: voting for Trump because there will be so much anxiety as well as captive experimental subjects if Trump wins.
Bane: Technically an illegal immigrant and unlikely to vote. But if he did, he'd be the one illegal Central American (Caribbean) immigrant that all the nativists will be pointing to in their claims about illegals voting.
Ra'as al Ghul: This sinister immortal who is plotting the downfall of civilization obviously sees a vote for Trump as the accelerationist choice.
Mad Hatter: voting for Trump. Jarvis Tetch and Jeffrey Epstein and DJT have a history together....
Clayface: voting for Harris, because he knows just how much of a phony Trump is.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 12:34 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc.
I think Frasier'd go Obama > Trump > Biden > Harris
posted by BungaDunga at 12:40 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I think Frasier'd go Obama > Trump > Biden > Harris
posted by BungaDunga at 12:40 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Joker is 100% voting for RFK Jr
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 12:42 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 12:42 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
I voted. There was a line that stretched out around the building. A retired African-American amputee (a military veteran) came to vote in-person because it was important. The elderly Jewish monitor gave me extra "I voted" stickers for my children to encourage future voters. "If not them, then who?" He said.
I don't have the time or the energy to fight all of the clear-eyed cynics who are strutting around saying that they expect Trump to win. I prayed as hard this morning as I did four years ago, and four years before that. I grew up in Mississippi and have seen what the GOP wants the rest of the nation to become. I remember the chaos of Trump's first term. I remember the anger I felt when Bush v Gore was decided.
God bless the United States and may we as a nation make the correct choice today.
posted by gwydapllew at 12:44 PM on November 5 [46 favorites]
I don't have the time or the energy to fight all of the clear-eyed cynics who are strutting around saying that they expect Trump to win. I prayed as hard this morning as I did four years ago, and four years before that. I grew up in Mississippi and have seen what the GOP wants the rest of the nation to become. I remember the chaos of Trump's first term. I remember the anger I felt when Bush v Gore was decided.
God bless the United States and may we as a nation make the correct choice today.
posted by gwydapllew at 12:44 PM on November 5 [46 favorites]
Meme round-up, mostly from yours truly with some extra favorites from Lemmy:
Fuckin' weirdosposted by Rhaomi at 12:44 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Someone's ears are burning
Burning it all down
Press "F" to shove a veteran
Birtherism vs. Burgerism
They said she could be anything.
♫ I love ya, Trump's health plan, you're always two weeks away ♫
Trump-Harris debate mood board
broken record 2: electric boogaloo
The Concept of a Plan (ft. Donald Trump)
"IS SHE TALKING ABOUT ME?"
On Message
The ratio of bullshit to fact is too big
JD reaches out to America's females
"Hello, handsome."
Elon Musk photographed jumping for joy at another rally
"Deep down you long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king"
Spare me the crocodile tears
Flooding the zone? Better call Ann
the poor fools
The Needle and the damage done
It ain't over till it's over
*jingles keys*
Barney says there's a 50% chance Trump wins PepeSylvia
MAGA not beating the "weird" allegations
We can't keep getting away with this
I am just hoping that the women of child-bearing age will be like, "Um, fuck you old white men."
Could be a lot. Which would be a landslide.
Just can't see how anyone but horrible shitheads would vote for TFG, over an actual human. But, here we are. Fingers crossed friends.
posted by Windopaene at 12:50 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Could be a lot. Which would be a landslide.
Just can't see how anyone but horrible shitheads would vote for TFG, over an actual human. But, here we are. Fingers crossed friends.
posted by Windopaene at 12:50 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
That I don't want to see an accurately imagined sequel to, given the drift of such Boomers who are not TV characters. Maher, Miller, etc
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:50 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
posted by Liquidwolf at 12:50 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
The funniest entry on that "how fictional characters would vote" list is clearly the one where (slaveowner) Scarlett O'Hara is classified as being a tossup
Seems like she'd just be very confused at what "Democrat" and "Republican" now mean and stand for.
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
They wouldn't, they're all convicted felons and Ra's al Ghul is also not a citizen.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:50 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Seems like she'd just be very confused at what "Democrat" and "Republican" now mean and stand for.
How Batman's Rogues Gallery would vote:
They wouldn't, they're all convicted felons and Ra's al Ghul is also not a citizen.
posted by star gentle uterus at 12:50 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
That "Elon Musk photographed jumping for joy at another rally" really is fantastic.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:51 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 12:51 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup and McDonald's cheeseburgers. He is, I am convinced, far too much of a snob.
Would he have voted for Clinton? For Obama? For Harris? For Biden? I am not willing to hazard a guess. But Trump, no.
posted by Jeanne at 12:55 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Would he have voted for Clinton? For Obama? For Harris? For Biden? I am not willing to hazard a guess. But Trump, no.
posted by Jeanne at 12:55 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Yesterday’s XKCD perfectly expresses how I’ve been feeling about uncertainty for the past few months.
posted by mbrubeck at 12:57 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 12:57 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup
Yes. This, I concede.
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
They're not the same but today's Maher is unrecognizable from PI. Or, maybe I never really saw him. Either way, he's of a type.
And Miller's transformation was no less dramatic, it was just around 9-11.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Yes. This, I concede.
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat. Dennis Miller is not the same.
They're not the same but today's Maher is unrecognizable from PI. Or, maybe I never really saw him. Either way, he's of a type.
And Miller's transformation was no less dramatic, it was just around 9-11.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I'm sitting in the rental car taking a short nap. I've been at this Philadelphia polling place doing poll observation volunteering since 6:30 am, and I'm resting a bit before the afterwork rush. I'm not really sure how this is going to go, and I'll probably be too tired to watch whatever results tonight.
Hey friend listen, I know the world is really scary right now but...
...the future is unknowable and will be determined by how hard we fight now for a loving world.
posted by AlSweigart at 1:04 PM on November 5 [39 favorites]
Hey friend listen, I know the world is really scary right now but...
...the future is unknowable and will be determined by how hard we fight now for a loving world.
posted by AlSweigart at 1:04 PM on November 5 [39 favorites]
"I am just hoping that the women of child-bearing age will be like, "Um, fuck you old white men."
My therapist was in a cheerful mood and said that, approximately, much more polite though. She said older ladies would definitely be out in full force and anyone whose life is as risk. She also said I was sensible for staying on BC (people have commented it's pointless for me since I'm unwanted romantically), Just In Case.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:04 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
My therapist was in a cheerful mood and said that, approximately, much more polite though. She said older ladies would definitely be out in full force and anyone whose life is as risk. She also said I was sensible for staying on BC (people have commented it's pointless for me since I'm unwanted romantically), Just In Case.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:04 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Frasier Crane would not vote for a person who eats well-done steaks with ketchup and McDonald's cheeseburgers. He is, I am convinced, far too much of a snob.
Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
posted by adept256 at 1:05 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
posted by adept256 at 1:05 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
At the moment I am much less stressed about this election than the previous two. No logic to it. Either emotional fatigue or straight-up dissociation.
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:06 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by JohnFromGR at 1:06 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Canadian here, wishing all of you the best with this massive anxiety fest today.
As some of you know I have posted various iterations of Trump over the years here, and I have made a screenshot of all the portraits I've don of him, which is over 40 now.
My god, one day we will be finally free of him and that will be a glorious day indeed, hopefully it happens today, though his baleful, malignant influence is going to poison society for years to come I imagine.
We feel it here, too, in Canada, he gives the worst we have a set of permissions to be public about that. The Fuck Trudeau crowd here, as one example, is very heavily MAGA influenced, and I wish it would stop.
Anyways, my best from North of 49.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:07 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
As some of you know I have posted various iterations of Trump over the years here, and I have made a screenshot of all the portraits I've don of him, which is over 40 now.
My god, one day we will be finally free of him and that will be a glorious day indeed, hopefully it happens today, though his baleful, malignant influence is going to poison society for years to come I imagine.
We feel it here, too, in Canada, he gives the worst we have a set of permissions to be public about that. The Fuck Trudeau crowd here, as one example, is very heavily MAGA influenced, and I wish it would stop.
Anyways, my best from North of 49.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:07 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Trump once sat down to a New York slice with a knife and fork. Which is probably what he thinks a classy guy like Frasier would do. Such a fucking weird guy.
He's got the out-of-touch rich person cluelessness of Mr. Burns and the slob factor/intellect of Homer Simpson.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:07 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
He's got the out-of-touch rich person cluelessness of Mr. Burns and the slob factor/intellect of Homer Simpson.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:07 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
You might hate him but Maher has always been very much a Democrat.
Hahahaha no he has not. He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
posted by Gadarene at 1:08 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
Hahahaha no he has not. He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
posted by Gadarene at 1:08 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
One of the low-key funniest things about this election is how Donald Trump literally got shot -- with an iconic bloody photo, too -- and not only did it barely sway polls at the time, but it had the cultural staying power of the first Avatar movie. We're ten hours and 300+ comments into this thread, and I'm the first to mention it. Heck, I didn't even think to mention in the post, and I was the one who posted the news here in the first place.
America just doesn't care for this dude very much. Hopefully it will be enough, in the right places.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:10 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]
America just doesn't care for this dude very much. Hopefully it will be enough, in the right places.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:10 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]
I really don’t know how to feel right now. It seems weird to me that class isn’t canceled today. No one is focused and everyone is snapping at each other and fighting over weird shit. My partner is worried about violence in the streets if Harris wins and Trump makes a speech that the election was stolen. I have solemnly promised to be home before election results start coming out. The kid has asked for an emotional support friend to be over while we watch, which we have granted. Every nerve is jangling. I feel like Harris will definitely win the popular vote, but I’m just not sure about the electoral college. And it’s a weird feeling being so anxious when I don’t even like her! Yet every piece of food I eat is tasteless and I can’t wait for today to be over.
posted by corb at 1:11 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by corb at 1:11 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I voted when the polls opened this morning as I usually do, and it was busier than I have ever seen it. We elect some real doozies here in Alaska, but consistently have the best stickers in the nation (I love this year's formline stickers). I am hoping for at least a split legislature and for our conservative Democratic congresswoman to win re-election. Most importantly, I am hoping that we defeat the Republican-backed ballot proposition that would repeal the ranked-choice voting system that elected said conservative Democrat, and has moderated our worst instincts in the state legislature.
Our local schools are doing remote learning for the day today since so many schools are polling places, so I can work from home today. I made a routine appointment for Wednesday months ago solely so I didn't have to spend all day putting on a show for 200 middle school kids when I didn't know what emotional state I was going to be in, and am feeling very smart for doing that.
posted by charmedimsure at 1:14 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Our local schools are doing remote learning for the day today since so many schools are polling places, so I can work from home today. I made a routine appointment for Wednesday months ago solely so I didn't have to spend all day putting on a show for 200 middle school kids when I didn't know what emotional state I was going to be in, and am feeling very smart for doing that.
posted by charmedimsure at 1:14 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Here in Denmark, the tradition is to eat pork on Election Day. Normally, I'm with my family, and we make US Election Day special by making sandwiches, because we all know how the US elections are important for our European security.
But this year, because of my crushed shoulder, I'm alone, so I've had bacon butties for tea. Theoretically, I'm a jew. But practically I'm a Yorkshire lass and a bacon butty is the comfort I need.
Come on Americans, you. can do this
posted by mumimor at 1:15 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
But this year, because of my crushed shoulder, I'm alone, so I've had bacon butties for tea. Theoretically, I'm a jew. But practically I'm a Yorkshire lass and a bacon butty is the comfort I need.
Come on Americans, you. can do this
posted by mumimor at 1:15 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
WaPo: Republicans call to ‘avenge’ Peanut the squirrel’s death at ballot box
WHUT
You can't parody these people.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:15 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
WHUT
You can't parody these people.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:15 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I'm shocked that 21% of people think Miles Morales would vote for Trump, even if his dad is a cop.
Indiana Jones, on the other hand...while he punched a lot of Nazis, he would also have faced cancellation for pursuing an underage Marion and his inappropriate relationships with his students.
Based on what we've seen in the last few years, I could see Indy on a podcast with Jordan Peterson and Russel Brand complaining about cancel culture and supporting Trump.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:17 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Indiana Jones, on the other hand...while he punched a lot of Nazis, he would also have faced cancellation for pursuing an underage Marion and his inappropriate relationships with his students.
Based on what we've seen in the last few years, I could see Indy on a podcast with Jordan Peterson and Russel Brand complaining about cancel culture and supporting Trump.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:17 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
My partner is worried about violence in the streets if Harris wins and Trump makes a speech that the election was stolen.
I've made my housemates promise me we can take the Harris/Walz yard signs down tonight no matter what the outcome. Magas are definitely gonna Maga, whichever way it goes, and I really don't want any part of it.
(I live with a friend who is the Democrat equivalent of a full-blown Q-anon Trumpetarian. We have Harris signs blocking the view of other Harris signs out there. I mean there are worse problems to have, obviously! But I'd really rather not have my house "accidentally" catch fire here in our 50/50 town in our deep blue state.)
posted by invincible summer at 1:19 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I've made my housemates promise me we can take the Harris/Walz yard signs down tonight no matter what the outcome. Magas are definitely gonna Maga, whichever way it goes, and I really don't want any part of it.
(I live with a friend who is the Democrat equivalent of a full-blown Q-anon Trumpetarian. We have Harris signs blocking the view of other Harris signs out there. I mean there are worse problems to have, obviously! But I'd really rather not have my house "accidentally" catch fire here in our 50/50 town in our deep blue state.)
posted by invincible summer at 1:19 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
jenfullmoon: "WaPo: Republicans call to ‘avenge’ Peanut the squirrel’s death at ballot box
WHUT
You can't parody these people."
"I can excuse racism, but I draw the line at animal cruelty."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:20 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
WHUT
You can't parody these people."
"I can excuse racism, but I draw the line at animal cruelty."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:20 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
The squirrel story does not surprise me since Trump supporters seem to have a preturnatural inability to understand how viral diseases work.
posted by East14thTaco at 1:26 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by East14thTaco at 1:26 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
On poll clerk break. It’s been amazing and moving to see so many first time voters with their proud parents!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:26 PM on November 5 [36 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:26 PM on November 5 [36 favorites]
This just in, Trump will shut down X if Harris wins!
Talk about threatening us with a good time....
posted by invincible summer at 1:28 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Talk about threatening us with a good time....
posted by invincible summer at 1:28 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
All of a sudden, Montana — and Senate control — is slipping away from Republicans
Stephen Leuchtman, polling director for Pharos Research Group, tweeted Monday that his firm had conducted one last poll of the Montana race, concluding on Sunday. It found Tester four percentage points ahead of Sheehy, according to Leuchtman, who did not release the full poll results (his firm does privately commissioned polling), just within the survey’s 4.97 percent margin of error.posted by Rhaomi at 1:33 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
It’s far from a certain thing, but the poll does fall roughly in line with two other surveys taken in mid-to-late October which found the gap between the two candidates shrinking rapidly from earlier in the year. One, from The Hill/Emerson College, found the Republican leading by three percentage points — within the margin of error — while a second from the University of Montana - Billings survey found the race tied.
Sheehy’s polling collapse and potential defeat on Tuesday could very well end up being a casualty of his failure to provide a clear explanation and proof for a scandal that has followed him for months: the case of the bullet wound in his right arm, which Sheehy maintains was suffered during a deployment to Afghanistan.
Well, Elon is apparently spending Election Night with Trump so that would be a possibility but Elon is so addicted to posting I can't see it happening.
Also, apparently all the political ads on twitter are all Republican ads. I'm not in the US so I wouldn't know.
posted by LostInUbe at 1:34 PM on November 5
Also, apparently all the political ads on twitter are all Republican ads. I'm not in the US so I wouldn't know.
posted by LostInUbe at 1:34 PM on November 5
On poll clerk break. It’s been amazing and moving to see so many first time voters with their proud parents!
And a little heartbreaking hanging out in /r/Voting where as of last night every third post was "first time voter... how can I prevent my abuser parents from knowing how I'm voting?"
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 1:35 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
And a little heartbreaking hanging out in /r/Voting where as of last night every third post was "first time voter... how can I prevent my abuser parents from knowing how I'm voting?"
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 1:35 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
He's the glibbest of glibertarians and has only gotten worse with time.
A little l libertarian who recognizes what a complete trash fire Trump is and keeps giving more money than I make in an entire election cycle to Dems because he doesn't actually want to see the world burn.
What makes him most difficult is that he refuses to stop bringing even the nutters on his show, so he ends up platforming fascists out of a conception of the First Amendment only slightly more sane and slightly less self serving than that held by Elon Musk.
I'd actually agree with his position on that in normal times, but bringing people on who supported the insurrection and attempted coup is a bridge too far.
posted by wierdo at 1:35 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
A little l libertarian who recognizes what a complete trash fire Trump is and keeps giving more money than I make in an entire election cycle to Dems because he doesn't actually want to see the world burn.
What makes him most difficult is that he refuses to stop bringing even the nutters on his show, so he ends up platforming fascists out of a conception of the First Amendment only slightly more sane and slightly less self serving than that held by Elon Musk.
I'd actually agree with his position on that in normal times, but bringing people on who supported the insurrection and attempted coup is a bridge too far.
posted by wierdo at 1:35 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Class canceled on account of election because literally no one can concentrate. What the fuck is going on with this squirrel? Is this reality or am I having a stroke?
posted by corb at 1:39 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by corb at 1:39 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I wouldn't put much stock in the Montana poll: "FWIW the firm that conducted this (Pharos Research Group) has some major red flags"
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:40 PM on November 5
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:40 PM on November 5
corb: "Class canceled on account of election because literally no one can concentrate. What the fuck is going on with this squirrel? Is this reality or am I having a stroke?"
Come for the unlicensed wildlife pet, stay for the surprise OnlyFans account.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:42 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Come for the unlicensed wildlife pet, stay for the surprise OnlyFans account.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:42 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
The Harris campaign sounds a lot like the Obama campaign did around this time on Election Day in 2012. 💙🌊💙🗳
Let’s GO!!
posted by edithkeeler at 1:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Let’s GO!!
posted by edithkeeler at 1:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Oh so NOW the Republicans decide they don't like murdering pets?
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:50 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:50 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Lots of stories of high turnout. That's good to hear.
posted by ryanrs at 1:51 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 1:51 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I'm just home from sitting outside the polls a Democratic table with info. Harris voters are totally pumped up and I had the most Democrats stop by our table than the other three elections I've been at (I've been doing this since 2019, Virginia has elections every year). Virginia allows same day registration with a provisional ballot and in our teeny tiny precinct, there were over 20 same day registrations.
I am nauseously optimistic.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:52 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
I am nauseously optimistic.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:52 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Oh so NOW the Republicans decide they don't like murdering pets?
Wait, wait, if we add miniature American flags to the bill and name it for the squirrel maybe we can get them to end qualified immunity for any raid on which an animal is killed!
posted by corb at 1:55 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Wait, wait, if we add miniature American flags to the bill and name it for the squirrel maybe we can get them to end qualified immunity for any raid on which an animal is killed!
posted by corb at 1:55 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The Peanut thing is so so so stupid. The only reason MAGA latched onto it was because it happened in the evil state of New York (AKA: a state Trump will never win).
Luckily for them, there isn't enough time for stupid pet tricks or else we'd be seeing the headline "Wild squirrel brought in by supporter bites several people at Trump rally. Official urge people to get tested for rabies."
posted by LostInUbe at 1:56 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Luckily for them, there isn't enough time for stupid pet tricks or else we'd be seeing the headline "Wild squirrel brought in by supporter bites several people at Trump rally. Official urge people to get tested for rabies."
posted by LostInUbe at 1:56 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
To counter the Peanut stuff, there's Nibi the beaver, saved from certain death, but, oh, Nibi was pardoned by the Democratic governor of a deep-blue state, so obviously doesn't count.
posted by adamg at 1:58 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by adamg at 1:58 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
We're not in the States, and so won't be voting.
Instead, we'll be preparing a batch of Tim Walz' hot dish before we sit down to watch the chaos sorry election footage unfold.
posted by The Outsider at 1:58 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Instead, we'll be preparing a batch of Tim Walz' hot dish before we sit down to watch the chaos sorry election footage unfold.
posted by The Outsider at 1:58 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
There is no human test for rabies, if potentially exposed I think you just have to get the (expensive) shots. I hope Trump doesn't catch wind of that story or in this timeline he will say some garbage at his rallies that will lead to many exposures followed by a shortage of immunoglobulin.
posted by being_quiet at 2:02 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by being_quiet at 2:02 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I will sometimes feed the squirrels on my deck some peanuts. I quickly realized they can’t really tell the difference between a finger and a peanut without giving it a taste.
Not dead yet.
posted by funkaspuck at 2:04 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Not dead yet.
posted by funkaspuck at 2:04 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
If anyone needs a pick-me-up tonight, something to watch other than election coverage, I would like to recommend the film Becky and its even more delightful sequel The Wrath of Becky
I was previously unaware of these films. DirtyOldTown, you may have saved my family's evening.
posted by nickmark at 2:06 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I was previously unaware of these films. DirtyOldTown, you may have saved my family's evening.
posted by nickmark at 2:06 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
As someone who took the old school rabies vaccine in the 80s, lmao that the wildlife tech was afraid of the modern shot. You could have had rabies immunity superpowers, you squeamish prick.
posted by ryanrs at 2:06 PM on November 5
posted by ryanrs at 2:06 PM on November 5
A short musical interlude. Lady Gaga bring down the house Edge of Glory at last night's rally in Philly.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:07 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 2:07 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Trump Media stock was halted three times on Election Day after its price dropped 15% in just 15 minutes. (archive.is link)
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:22 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:22 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
5:25 in NYC. Stress-eating has commenced.
posted by fingers_of_fire at 2:25 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by fingers_of_fire at 2:25 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I've been away from Ye Olde Metafiltere for a few years...I come back for two reasons -- the identification of The Most Mysterious Song, AND Election Night 2024, which coincide very neatly with one another.
I was overconfident in 16, doom-n-gloomed in 20 and just sitting back for the ride here in 24. Bless you all.
posted by splen at 2:30 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
I was overconfident in 16, doom-n-gloomed in 20 and just sitting back for the ride here in 24. Bless you all.
posted by splen at 2:30 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Back again also.
2020 election thread was a great real time tracker, with a banging soundtrack.
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:32 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
2020 election thread was a great real time tracker, with a banging soundtrack.
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:32 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Weird. 2SER radio in Sydney is reporting exactly now about the most mysterious song.
I hadn’t even heard about this thing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:35 PM on November 5
I hadn’t even heard about this thing.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:35 PM on November 5
Stress cooking commencing. I got some chicken, about six pounds of veggies and a giant box of S&B Golden Curry. Good luck, everyone.
posted by phooky at 2:36 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by phooky at 2:36 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
I just have a CD of Napalm Death's 'From Enslavement to Obliteration' on repeat at the moment.
I'm trying not to drink accordingly.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:37 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I just have a CD of Napalm Death's 'From Enslavement to Obliteration' on repeat at the moment.
I'm trying not to drink accordingly.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:37 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I was buying Christmas tree ornaments when they broke the news of Biden winning in 2020… got me so happy it instantly turned me from being the Grinch grudgingly buying stuff to being a FULL ON Christmas ornamenter (it runs in the family), my GF still talks about it.
Not sure what I’m doing tonight… what should I go overboard on?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:39 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Not sure what I’m doing tonight… what should I go overboard on?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:39 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Are people assembling a Spotify playlist again this time around?
Election Therapy playlist
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:39 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Election Therapy playlist
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:39 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
My husband and I walked approximately 200 yards from our new house to vote at our new polling place, a elementary school gym. Made delightful small talk with one awkward high school election worker and complimented another on the knitting project she was working on, in between feeding ballots into the scanner.
Wept a little bit in the voting booth, as is my custom, but I'm feeling pretty OK as we head into the evening. Here in Chicago, we're electing a school board for the first time and there are always bad judges to try to boot out, so here's hoping that increased engagement and turn-out will have good knock-on effects, locally.
posted by merriment at 2:41 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Wept a little bit in the voting booth, as is my custom, but I'm feeling pretty OK as we head into the evening. Here in Chicago, we're electing a school board for the first time and there are always bad judges to try to boot out, so here's hoping that increased engagement and turn-out will have good knock-on effects, locally.
posted by merriment at 2:41 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Currently listening to Unpopular Sabbath. Again.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 2:45 PM on November 5
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 2:45 PM on November 5
Is it worth following the election returns tonight? As much as I want a blue wave, I can't let myself believe it will happen. I had been assuming we'd have to wait for days again. I was going to take two Benedryl and try to just sleep. But I am bad at not knowing.
posted by rikschell at 2:47 PM on November 5
posted by rikschell at 2:47 PM on November 5
We’re trying to distract ourselves at a coffee shop with sugary lattes and art supplies. But um, here I am on the internet…
posted by UltraMorgnus at 2:49 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by UltraMorgnus at 2:49 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Common Sense Says She Wins, Jay Kuo (sorry, Substack):
posted by kristi at 2:51 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
ten reasons why I remain cautiously optimistic:It's worth a read.
1. The Gender Gap
2. Older women voters
3. Enthusiasm favors Democrats
4. The favorability factor
5. The Latino vote
6. The youth vote
7. Closing weak v. closing strong
8. The Ground Game
9. Trump has bet on young male voters
10. About those polls
posted by kristi at 2:51 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
My spouse had off yesterday and today, so we went to Cape May, NJ for the night for a distraction. I was a ball of anxiety on the way down, but loosened up considerably and, perhaps not coincidentally, avoided most of the internet until we got back home today. Tonight, like 2020 and 2016 before it, probably involves some(lots of) bourbon or gin once I get caught up on work.
posted by mollweide at 2:53 PM on November 5
posted by mollweide at 2:53 PM on November 5
You could always make a Suffering Bastard with bourbon & gin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:56 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:56 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
My today playlist is all psychedelic rock, funk and soul because how else to get through weird times?
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:57 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:57 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
The Guardian is reporting that exit polls show a third of voters said concerns about democracy were foremost on their minds. I see that as a good sign.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 2:58 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by Mr. Yuck at 2:58 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
You could always make a Suffering Bastard with bourbon & gin.
That sounds tasty, but could be bad karma. Might have to rename it.
posted by mollweide at 2:59 PM on November 5
That sounds tasty, but could be bad karma. Might have to rename it.
posted by mollweide at 2:59 PM on November 5
Well I would like to report that I have increased North Carolina’s numbers by 2, as one of my kids texted me with “my friend and his mom are in NC and trying to vote and being turned away by Trump electioneers” and I was able to sort it out with the very lovely folks at the election protection line for North Carolina and get them to another polling place that let them vote. But also, horrifying and unsurprising that it is happening.
posted by corb at 2:59 PM on November 5 [49 favorites]
posted by corb at 2:59 PM on November 5 [49 favorites]
Wow, the WaPo app just took over my iPhone’s dynamic Island with an EV counter after I tapped on some cryptic prompt? Props to them for finding an uncanny mix of what is somehow one of the better uses of that space I’ve seen at a technical level combined with an omnipresent anxiety horror show I seriously do not want. Luckily figured out how to disable…
posted by advil at 2:59 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by advil at 2:59 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
What's up with The Hill's Decision Desk HQ predictions right now? 😬😬😬😬
posted by mxjudyliza at 3:00 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by mxjudyliza at 3:00 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Currently listening to Unpopular Sabbath. Again.
I just played/listened to that same track the other day ..which is rare.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:00 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I just played/listened to that same track the other day ..which is rare.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:00 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Every Tuesday I meet a friend in a park to juggle clubs together. Well when I looked up nearby ballot drop box locations, it turns out there's one in that park!
Bonus 1: I got to vote without having to bike anywhere else.
Bonus 2: Someone else was biking their vote in, and we had a "heck yeah!" moment.
Filling out my ballot from home is so much better an experience than trying to do it at a polling site. I really like being able to sit at my computer and look up who all these people are and what these referenda actually mean. Still couldn't come to an opinion on who would be a good regional park district director, though. From a one paragraph blurb all three candidates seemed pretty okay. I kind of wonder if that should just be an appointed position.
posted by aubilenon at 3:01 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Bonus 1: I got to vote without having to bike anywhere else.
Bonus 2: Someone else was biking their vote in, and we had a "heck yeah!" moment.
Filling out my ballot from home is so much better an experience than trying to do it at a polling site. I really like being able to sit at my computer and look up who all these people are and what these referenda actually mean. Still couldn't come to an opinion on who would be a good regional park district director, though. From a one paragraph blurb all three candidates seemed pretty okay. I kind of wonder if that should just be an appointed position.
posted by aubilenon at 3:01 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Reuters Washington reporter says Philly is at 150% of 2020 vote in some precincts. Probably not much Trump in there unless it's a lot of squirrel people in those neighborhoods.
posted by kensington314 at 3:02 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 3:02 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
Cliff Huxtable isn't voting for a guy who was sued for racial discrimination in housing over an HBCU grad.
Probably conflating the character and the actor and I don't think there is as much certiany who the rich rapist would vote for.
posted by Mitheral at 3:09 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Probably conflating the character and the actor and I don't think there is as much certiany who the rich rapist would vote for.
posted by Mitheral at 3:09 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
The Hill is an even shittier version of Politico. Ignore them.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:09 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 3:09 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
19. Be a patriot.
Some of Timothy Snyder's writing in this book is very good, but i always get irritated at this one, because there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:15 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Some of Timothy Snyder's writing in this book is very good, but i always get irritated at this one, because there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:15 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
> Every Tuesday I meet a friend in a park to juggle clubs together.
Oh my.
posted by lucidium at 3:15 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Oh my.
posted by lucidium at 3:15 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
538s final(?) simulation seems to have reverted to exactly 50/50 (well 50/49 in favor of Harris). I am also nauseously optimistic and allowing myself to be buoyed by the slight increase in Harris' odds in these simulations.
posted by TwoWordReview at 3:16 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by TwoWordReview at 3:16 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Philly DA Larry Krasner, who is NOT fucking around, just now:
"The only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation. We have invited complaints and allegations of improprieties all day. If Donald J. Trump has any facts to support his wild allegations, we want them now. Right now. We are not holding our breath"posted by JoeZydeco at 3:17 PM on November 5 [47 favorites]
I'll be damned if I can get metachat to work.
Must be the apostrophe.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:19 PM on November 5
Must be the apostrophe.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:19 PM on November 5
Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.
posted by ryanshepard at 3:20 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanshepard at 3:20 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
(Red Mirage!)
posted by mochapickle at 3:21 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 3:21 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Love the work that Election Protection does. 866-OUR-VOTE for those that have t heard about it yet. Call and encourage friends to call if the encounter any issues, up to and including intimidation, long lines, etc.
Three general rules that apply (still call, but do this while you call):
1. Check your registration before you go. Most states or counties have an online checking system. If you need help- call the hotline and they can do it for you.
2. STAY IN LINE! If you are in line when the polls close, or if the lines are long, stay and call!
3. In many situations, if an election worker tries to say a registered voter can’t vote, a provisional ballot can be used and cured later. Call the hotline while staying at or near the polling place, because while a provisional ballot is a last resort, it is better than nothing!! (And the hotline will be open for most of November for curing questions/issues.)
Oh and bonus- most states permit accessibility and other ease of access (skipping the line, interpreters). Call the hotline- they can help!
And please be patient with the hotline workers- these rules are complicated.(Sometimes intentionally so!) we really just want to help!! (I just finished my Texas shift.)
posted by susiswimmer at 3:25 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
Three general rules that apply (still call, but do this while you call):
1. Check your registration before you go. Most states or counties have an online checking system. If you need help- call the hotline and they can do it for you.
2. STAY IN LINE! If you are in line when the polls close, or if the lines are long, stay and call!
3. In many situations, if an election worker tries to say a registered voter can’t vote, a provisional ballot can be used and cured later. Call the hotline while staying at or near the polling place, because while a provisional ballot is a last resort, it is better than nothing!! (And the hotline will be open for most of November for curing questions/issues.)
Oh and bonus- most states permit accessibility and other ease of access (skipping the line, interpreters). Call the hotline- they can help!
And please be patient with the hotline workers- these rules are complicated.(Sometimes intentionally so!) we really just want to help!! (I just finished my Texas shift.)
posted by susiswimmer at 3:25 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
there is never more than a hair's breadth of space between "patriotism" and fascism.
Arendt called nationalism 'pride without achievement'. I like this formulation, since it allows immigrants more pride in achieving citizenship than those granted it by birth.
And if being born is the achievement you're most proud of, what the fuck have you done with your life? That's it? All you've got is that flag? What a loser.
posted by adept256 at 3:25 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Arendt called nationalism 'pride without achievement'. I like this formulation, since it allows immigrants more pride in achieving citizenship than those granted it by birth.
And if being born is the achievement you're most proud of, what the fuck have you done with your life? That's it? All you've got is that flag? What a loser.
posted by adept256 at 3:25 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Nauseous optimism is nothing without nausea.
posted by mazola at 3:26 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by mazola at 3:26 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I can tell it’s an emotional day because Lady Gaga made me cry.
Also! I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.
Ilana: “I mean, I feel like we’re finally moving forward”
Abbi: “And it’s just the beginning. I mean, never backwards, only forwards”
Ilana: “Next is a woman!”
Both: “Whoo!”
posted by sucre at 3:28 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Also! I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.
Ilana: “I mean, I feel like we’re finally moving forward”
Abbi: “And it’s just the beginning. I mean, never backwards, only forwards”
Ilana: “Next is a woman!”
Both: “Whoo!”
posted by sucre at 3:28 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Philly DA Larry Krasner, who is NOT fucking around,
This would be the same guy who held a press conference on election security Monday morning and said, "Anyone who thinks it's time to play militia . . . F around and find out." (And proceded to use the phrase 2 more times. lmfao.)
posted by soundguy99 at 3:28 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
This would be the same guy who held a press conference on election security Monday morning and said, "Anyone who thinks it's time to play militia . . . F around and find out." (And proceded to use the phrase 2 more times. lmfao.)
posted by soundguy99 at 3:28 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Hugs from Australia to anyone who needs them - just wish I could do more than that for you guys.
posted by ninazer0 at 3:31 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by ninazer0 at 3:31 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
THANK YOU for doing Election Protection work, susiswimmer. I am grateful to you.
posted by kristi at 3:39 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by kristi at 3:39 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I’ve been rewatching Broad City this week as a comfort show, and there are so many references to the 2016 election.
My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke that show. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:41 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke that show. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:41 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
“Women are not without electoral or political power.”
— Samuel Alito, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization
posted by kirkaracha at 3:45 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
— Samuel Alito, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization
posted by kirkaracha at 3:45 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
“Women are not without electoral or political power.”
That is literally just inviting: "Tell Alito, I want him to know it was me."
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 3:48 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]
That is literally just inviting: "Tell Alito, I want him to know it was me."
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 3:48 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]
I’m avoiding the news and spinning some vinyl on a 1960’s Garrard Type A turntable I inherited from my father-in-law. And by classic vinyl I mean 1980’s era Swans and Wire. You know, the uplifting classics.
posted by misterpatrick at 3:49 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by misterpatrick at 3:49 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Alright, my final prediction before I head to an outdoor taproom with pizza (as other people have mentioned, North Carolina is having really nice weather right now): the results will be closer than 2020, but Kamala will pull it off. I hope I'm not too wrong.
posted by coffeecat at 3:50 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 3:50 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.
I'm all for pessimism of the intellect (and optimism of the will!), but please note that the earliest poll closing times in any state are not for another 10 minutes. There's no data yet, there won't be for hours.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:52 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
I'm all for pessimism of the intellect (and optimism of the will!), but please note that the earliest poll closing times in any state are not for another 10 minutes. There's no data yet, there won't be for hours.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:52 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
There are numbers coming in from Kentucky and Indiana. Those are expected to go strongly to TFG and so far they are.
posted by mazola at 3:55 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by mazola at 3:55 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
And the piecemeal nature of how the data comes in means that hanging on every result as it comes in will probably be the worst way to handle it.
posted by rikschell at 3:56 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 3:56 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
I logged in at 5:30 this morning to the DNC Voter Protection hotline to take calls as the polls opened. (Not the same as susiswimmer, Election Protection is an independent nonpartisan org, DNC VoPro is both voter assistance and frontline reporting intake from field teams on polling locations that need to be sued into doing their jobs.)
Things started quiet but picked up in earnest at 7am. TTalked to a young person in Texas who was voting for the first time but didn't know if they're registered because they didn't get confirmation from the state. I got their permission to look up their info on the Secretary of State site and sure enough, there they were.
"You're good to go. Get at it!"
"Damn straight. I'm gonna vote!"
"You gonna do that right now? You gonna bring friends?"
"Yeah! can I give you their names so you can look them up?"
"Hell no! I need their consent! I can't have us looking people up like stalkers for democracy. But tell them to call us and we can totally confirm their registration and set up your little voting party."
"I'm gonna go do that right now."
I hope they did call and my other shift workers got a little wave of excited Texan kids ready to go do a democracy.
Anyway, it's been calls like that. I logged off shift at 10am, went to my day job, and now I'm back on the hotline but just doing techsupport on the calling software rather than taking calls.
I'm exhausted because I woke up at 4am and am too tired to stay up late and be worried; so I'm going to bed after my tech support shift ends at 9:30. Meanwhile the hotline Slack is a running series of anecdotes about voters happy to connect w/ us. 10/10 way to spend election day.
posted by bl1nk at 3:56 PM on November 5 [64 favorites]
Things started quiet but picked up in earnest at 7am. TTalked to a young person in Texas who was voting for the first time but didn't know if they're registered because they didn't get confirmation from the state. I got their permission to look up their info on the Secretary of State site and sure enough, there they were.
"You're good to go. Get at it!"
"Damn straight. I'm gonna vote!"
"You gonna do that right now? You gonna bring friends?"
"Yeah! can I give you their names so you can look them up?"
"Hell no! I need their consent! I can't have us looking people up like stalkers for democracy. But tell them to call us and we can totally confirm their registration and set up your little voting party."
"I'm gonna go do that right now."
I hope they did call and my other shift workers got a little wave of excited Texan kids ready to go do a democracy.
Anyway, it's been calls like that. I logged off shift at 10am, went to my day job, and now I'm back on the hotline but just doing techsupport on the calling software rather than taking calls.
I'm exhausted because I woke up at 4am and am too tired to stay up late and be worried; so I'm going to bed after my tech support shift ends at 9:30. Meanwhile the hotline Slack is a running series of anecdotes about voters happy to connect w/ us. 10/10 way to spend election day.
posted by bl1nk at 3:56 PM on November 5 [64 favorites]
> Red points already starting to rack up. Vibes are bad.(previously)
posted by bl1nk at 4:01 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Never been so happy to attend the zoom meeting for my antipodean co-workers.
posted by ocschwar at 4:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 4:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
posted by iamck at 4:05 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by iamck at 4:05 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
It’s really hitting me that trump might win this and damn it feels bad
posted by dis_integration at 4:05 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:05 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I don't mean to monopolize the thread, but - bl1nk, THANK YOU for doing DNC Vote Protection work. I am grateful to you.
posted by kristi at 4:05 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by kristi at 4:05 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Associated Press calls: Kamala Harris wins Vermont.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:06 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:06 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Some reporting from deep red Indiana by John Green:
Today I will be reporting on Indiana's election results and what if anything we can learn from them. In 2020, Trump beat Biden 75/22 in rural Pike County, Indiana. This year, with most of the vote in, it's 74/25. Kamala running (very) slightly ahead in this rural county. MEANWHILE in Vermillion County, where I once vomited on the side of the road on a road trip...In Vermillion County, Trump is beating Kamala 66/33, slightly behind his 69/29 margin. So far, and obviously it's (very, ridiculously, absurdly) early, slightly more Hoosiers from small towns are voting for Kamala than voted for Biden in 2020.posted by gwint at 4:07 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Might be a dumb question, but how can they determine Kamala won Vermont if the votes aren't even counted yet? Shows 0% counted.
(Am Team Kamala all the way, btw! Waiting with bated breath here. Hopinggggg for the best!)
posted by dubious_dude at 4:08 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
(Am Team Kamala all the way, btw! Waiting with bated breath here. Hopinggggg for the best!)
posted by dubious_dude at 4:08 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
AP makes the call based on polling
posted by dis_integration at 4:10 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:10 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Might be a dumb question, but how can they determine Kamala won Vermont if the votes aren't even counted yet? Shows 0% counted.
I was wondering the same thing looking at DecisionDesk. Maybe really really lopsided exit polls?
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 4:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I was wondering the same thing looking at DecisionDesk. Maybe really really lopsided exit polls?
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 4:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner?
posted by kirkaracha at 4:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:11 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Associated Press calls: Kamala Harris wins Vermont.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
Man, i really wish the AP & other mainstream media would quit doing this "calling the state before any votes are counted" thing. It's part of how Republicans have been able to manipulate people to have so much mistrust of election results.
I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
Me either. Whoever wins it's going to be genocide and billionaires hollowing out society. One candidate is obviously worse, but "vote to fight fascism" doesn't really work when both candidates are totally fine with some fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:11 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky.
Man, i really wish the AP & other mainstream media would quit doing this "calling the state before any votes are counted" thing. It's part of how Republicans have been able to manipulate people to have so much mistrust of election results.
I’ve never felt so uninspired by an election in my life.
Me either. Whoever wins it's going to be genocide and billionaires hollowing out society. One candidate is obviously worse, but "vote to fight fascism" doesn't really work when both candidates are totally fine with some fascism.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:11 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Like 2020 I imagine there will be a period of time where states that close polls early will report in for Trump.
The turnout from Philly is getting reported as high. That's great news.
The bomb threat news in Georgia however is terrible news.
This will be a long night.
Thank you to all poll workers and people protecting the vote!
This was my daughter's first election she could voted and for so many reasons, Kamala Harris is the right choice.
Here is to hoping America does the right thing.
posted by kmartino at 4:11 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
The turnout from Philly is getting reported as high. That's great news.
The bomb threat news in Georgia however is terrible news.
This will be a long night.
Thank you to all poll workers and people protecting the vote!
This was my daughter's first election she could voted and for so many reasons, Kamala Harris is the right choice.
Here is to hoping America does the right thing.
posted by kmartino at 4:11 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I have decided that whichever state is the first to be called for Harris will win the title of First Past the Putz.
Congratulations, Vermont!
posted by nickmark at 4:11 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Congratulations, Vermont!
posted by nickmark at 4:11 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Home from work and on station.
posted by vrakatar at 4:17 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by vrakatar at 4:17 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
If you have an election lasting more than 48 hours, you may need emergency care.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:18 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:18 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
My feeling at the time was that the 2016 election broke [Broad City]. It was so consistently funny for the first three seasons and then as soon as Trump got elected the wind went right out of their sails.
Remember Ilana doing commercials for Amazon Ads a couple years back? Good times, good times.
posted by non canadian guy at 4:19 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Remember Ilana doing commercials for Amazon Ads a couple years back? Good times, good times.
posted by non canadian guy at 4:19 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I have been in bed all day with stomach flu and while I don't recommend the flu part, sleeping most of the day was a good thing. Still pretty groggy but also realizing that I am literally standing at a forking path between two wildly different futures with the rest of the country and so it's ok to not be able to focus on anything. I haven't turned on the TV and probably won't. But I'm glad to see you all here.
posted by emjaybee at 4:21 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 4:21 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
^^ I phrased it as I'm in the Quantum Lobby, where someone has already pulled the lever, and over the next couple of hours, I'm gradually going to be shunted into two separate universes, but for now I just feel anxious.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:23 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:23 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Legit. Waiting to see which hellverse we end up in.
Meanwhile, a semi overturned on my way home, so it's gonna be an hour of slogging home with my thoughts, rerouting traffic. Whee.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:29 PM on November 5
Meanwhile, a semi overturned on my way home, so it's gonna be an hour of slogging home with my thoughts, rerouting traffic. Whee.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:29 PM on November 5
If you want to know how important exit polling is, just ask President Kerry.
posted by gimonca at 4:30 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by gimonca at 4:30 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I'm drinking. Would love to not, but what can you do?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 4:30 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 4:30 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Has there ever been a situation where AP called the wrong candidate?
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:32 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:32 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I'm hearing that news services will call Florida for Trump, Scott etc. by 8:00 PM.
Disappointing but not surprising. Sorry, friends.
posted by martin q blank at 4:32 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Disappointing but not surprising. Sorry, friends.
posted by martin q blank at 4:32 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Took a nap, took a bath, playing Elvis as surely only the King can heal a broken America, and am about to turn on PBS for an evening of results, doomscrolling, and yelling at David Brooks. Good luck, everyone. Stay safe. TCB.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on November 5
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on November 5
I'm catastrophising so you don't have to!
Slightly more seriously, throw on your local news instead of whatever French Mistake you default to. I'm watching a really interesting 9News story that puts a lot of that Venezualan Gang in Aurora nonense into context.
posted by East14thTaco at 4:38 PM on November 5
Slightly more seriously, throw on your local news instead of whatever French Mistake you default to. I'm watching a really interesting 9News story that puts a lot of that Venezualan Gang in Aurora nonense into context.
posted by East14thTaco at 4:38 PM on November 5
Voted for Harris. Voted to retain all the judges because Stitt’s replacements would not be in line with my values. Voted against the state questions. Voted for Monroe for mayor.
Worried and I wish I was with friends having a drink rather than at home by myself. But my cat is here.
posted by bunderful at 4:39 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Worried and I wish I was with friends having a drink rather than at home by myself. But my cat is here.
posted by bunderful at 4:39 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Has there ever been a situation where AP called the wrong candidate?
2000 Florida, though it was really a group called Voter News Service organized by the AP. They got really burned having to un-call it.
posted by netowl at 4:41 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
2000 Florida, though it was really a group called Voter News Service organized by the AP. They got really burned having to un-call it.
posted by netowl at 4:41 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
emjaybee i hope you recover quickly.
for my fellow mefites, whichever way this goes, i will be a staunch supporter to any person in need. i'm most worried for womens rights (taking away a womans right to her own body" is one step away from taking away our voting rights) one step away from dissolving gay marriage and one step away from total hand maids tale.
i believe in us, america! don't let us down!
posted by kiwi-epitome at 4:41 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
for my fellow mefites, whichever way this goes, i will be a staunch supporter to any person in need. i'm most worried for womens rights (taking away a womans right to her own body" is one step away from taking away our voting rights) one step away from dissolving gay marriage and one step away from total hand maids tale.
i believe in us, america! don't let us down!
posted by kiwi-epitome at 4:41 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Lots of bomb threats at polling places in metro-Atlanta today:
Polls have now closed in most Georgia precincts, and election workers have begun counting Election Day votes. A few precincts will remain open, including five in DeKalb County, five in Fulton County and one in Gwinnett County due to threat evacuations.posted by hydropsyche at 4:43 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Decision Desk is reporting Laurens County, SC, as 68.9% for Jill Stein, with an estimated 48% of the votes counted so far. Which...well, we can think on that a bit.
posted by mittens at 4:43 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by mittens at 4:43 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
But my cat is here.
How cats see election maps.
posted by valkane at 4:45 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
How cats see election maps.
posted by valkane at 4:45 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I think that might just be a glitch, mittens - NBC news has Laurens County as 68.9% for Trump.
posted by Jeanne at 4:46 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Jeanne at 4:46 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Huh. Well, I think Harris should have reached left.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:46 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:46 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Does anyone know of a site that shows actual vote counts side-by-side with the last polls for that state? I am curious whether there is any sort of systematic error in the polls.
posted by Westringia F. at 4:49 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Westringia F. at 4:49 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I knew in 2016. I knew in 2020. I just don't know now. It feels weird. And fucking bad. I do have a sense we'll know tonight, I don't know why.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:51 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:51 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Westringia F: not sure if this is quite what you're asking for, but ABC Australia's live blog has live counts.
West Virginia seems really close
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
West Virginia seems really close
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Oh nvm WV was 50/50 when I last checked but it's swung back to Trump
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:54 PM on November 5
AP called West Virginia for Trump a while ago.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 5
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 5
It's nearing 8 pm on the east coast:
To every thing (turn turn turn)
There is a season (turn turn turn)
And a time to curse and spit
Appeasing heaven
posted by Wilbefort at 4:56 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
To every thing (turn turn turn)
There is a season (turn turn turn)
And a time to curse and spit
Appeasing heaven
posted by Wilbefort at 4:56 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Georgia independent voters prefer Trump over Harris in exit polling
In a potentially worrying sign for Kamala Harris, CNN is reporting Donald Trump is doing very well with independent voters in the key battleground state of Georgia.
A CNN exit poll shows Trump leading Harris among independents in that state by 54% to 43%.
Four years ago, Georgia independents swung behind Joe Biden.
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:59 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
In a potentially worrying sign for Kamala Harris, CNN is reporting Donald Trump is doing very well with independent voters in the key battleground state of Georgia.
A CNN exit poll shows Trump leading Harris among independents in that state by 54% to 43%.
Four years ago, Georgia independents swung behind Joe Biden.
posted by creatrixtiara at 4:59 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
We don't have registered party affiliations in Georgia. So there's no way to confirm someone is an "independent" and not just a person who always votes Republican but won't tell you that.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:01 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 5:01 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Thanks creatrixtiara, but it's not just the live counts that I want; I want them side-by-side with the last NYT/CNN/ipsos/AP/whomever polls for the same state. Specifically, I want to know if the red states are as red as they were predicted to be (likewise the blue states).
posted by Westringia F. at 5:01 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Westringia F. at 5:01 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Georgia independent voters prefer Trump over Harris in exit polling
You say potato I say Georgia independent voters are sexist and racist 💁
posted by phunniemee at 5:03 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
You say potato I say Georgia independent voters are sexist and racist 💁
posted by phunniemee at 5:03 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
It wouldn’t be a meaningful comparison until the votes are all or almost all counted or if you had access to precinct or maybe county level polling and voting to compare earlier.
posted by Rumple at 5:04 PM on November 5
posted by Rumple at 5:04 PM on November 5
I agree! But do you know of anyone who actually publishes the comparison?
posted by Westringia F. at 5:06 PM on November 5
posted by Westringia F. at 5:06 PM on November 5
I went to my neighborhood liquor store about 5:30. It was fairly busy for a weekday.
posted by NotLost at 5:08 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 5:08 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
My pizza showed up in eleven pieces. One of them was roughly a third of the whole pie. It took an hour to get here, but I'm not even mad. I feel bad. It must be hell working there tonight.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:10 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:10 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
No but the CNN map dude is comparing county level returns from 2024 to Biden’s 2020 results which, while the county may not be counted fully yet, allows a relevant metric which is at least more granular than state level at this time.
posted by Rumple at 5:10 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Rumple at 5:10 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
It’s also worth noting that there are bomb threats at Georgia voting precincts like DeKalb and Fulton. And like - that’s uncorrectable. If this was an NLRB election, it’d be grounds for a bargaining order. Here, there’s not much that can be done about people who *don’t* vote.
posted by corb at 5:10 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by corb at 5:10 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
God. I can't stand this. The tension is literally killing me. Or would, anyway, if I weren't in decent cardiac health.
Imma go drink (yay, not hard drugs even though they'd be waaaayyy better for this) and watch Russian mobiks getting blown up by Ukrainian FPVs and try to pretend that isn't in everyone's future.
Cue Charlton Heston on a beach.
posted by aramaic at 5:11 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Imma go drink (yay, not hard drugs even though they'd be waaaayyy better for this) and watch Russian mobiks getting blown up by Ukrainian FPVs and try to pretend that isn't in everyone's future.
Cue Charlton Heston on a beach.
posted by aramaic at 5:11 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
(how do you even cut a pizza into an odd number of slices?)
posted by mittens at 5:11 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:11 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
(Cut a pizza in half. Cut one of the halves in half. How many pieces do you have?)
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:13 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:13 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
(Cut into thirds then subdivide. Which will lead to a just intonated pizza and youtube videos).
posted by stet at 5:14 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by stet at 5:14 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
kittens for breakfast, electorally speaking, each of those pieces of your pie are weighted the same
posted by joeyh at 5:15 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by joeyh at 5:15 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
(Alternately, hit the klein bottle a little too hard beforehand.)
posted by stet at 5:15 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by stet at 5:15 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
*peeks between fingers* Is there any good news at all so far?
posted by HotToddy at 5:15 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by HotToddy at 5:15 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Advances in pizza theory. We'll get back to you on the election.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:16 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:16 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
North Carolina Governor just called: Stein (Normal) wins easily over Robinson (Dumpster Fire).
posted by gimonca at 5:16 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 5:16 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
TikTok video of the good day I had being a poll worker in Savannah, Georgia!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:16 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:16 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
I went to Pizza Hut today and they told me they had only Pepperoni pizzas. I don't know why it would be so difficult to leave off the pepperonis and have cheese.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 PM on November 5
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:20 PM on November 5
For a lot of reasons, this election barely registered for me. Like, I was somehow made aware of Biden withdrawing and Trump's brush with death, but my brain tune out EVERYTHING. There was no real reason to care. Also 2016 broke me.
I did vote today though, not that there was a chance I wasn't going to. I only just peaked at election results/predictions now.
If Kamala doesn't win, I just can't again. And I'm worried she won't, there have been enough people (men) around me that can't articulate why they don't like her that it feels too much like Clinton again.
I don't have my passport, which is probably good because honestly if Trump wins tonight, it would be all I could do to not head to the Canadian border.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 5:22 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I did vote today though, not that there was a chance I wasn't going to. I only just peaked at election results/predictions now.
If Kamala doesn't win, I just can't again. And I'm worried she won't, there have been enough people (men) around me that can't articulate why they don't like her that it feels too much like Clinton again.
I don't have my passport, which is probably good because honestly if Trump wins tonight, it would be all I could do to not head to the Canadian border.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 5:22 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Trump finished ahead of his 538-average polling by 6 points in Florida...
posted by dirigibleman at 5:25 PM on November 5
posted by dirigibleman at 5:25 PM on November 5
Chiming in from Canada. Hugs to you all. It’s been a hell of a summer and I just hope beyond hope that the nazis don’t win. My great uncle was a Dambuster in WW2. I cannot support what Trump supports.
posted by omegajuice at 5:26 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by omegajuice at 5:26 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Friends and family from around the world have checked in with us, and asked us to make sure thay can sleep soundly tonight.
posted by Rabarberofficer at 5:26 PM on November 5
posted by Rabarberofficer at 5:26 PM on November 5
I'm not really a Harris fan, but I really fucking hate Donald Trump, and seeing America's douchiest dudes endorse him has made it clear to me I'm right to vote for her. There is no doubt in my mind that anyone Elon Musk and Joe Rogan think is great is a piece of total shit.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:27 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:27 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
I am dumbfounded by the willful degradation of this country at the hands of adult people who should reasonably be expected to recognize fascism when it is kicking them in the teeth.
posted by Nancy_LockIsLit_Palmer at 5:31 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]
posted by Nancy_LockIsLit_Palmer at 5:31 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]
I imagine that they think they will be the ones kicking in teeth.
posted by Blienmeis at 5:36 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by Blienmeis at 5:36 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
With Spirit Halloween closed down for the year, the haunted skull of Rick Scott has now been returned to the Senate.
posted by mittens at 5:38 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:38 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
It's so wild that this all boils down to the opinions of people so stupid, it's a minor miracle they cannot be hypnotized by the shininess of aluminum foil.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:39 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:39 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
There's been a campaign of disinformation and conditioning ongoing for at least a decade in earnest that's left half the population in a bubble of epistemological unreality. We've known about this since 2016 but there hasn't been any grand effort to reverse it, because half the government are beneficiaries of the bullshit hose.
Win or lose, this is still going to be a huge problem with people within and outside the country working against a solution. My feeling is that the solution is going to be generational, teach the kids civics and bullshit detection.
Whatever the fix is, it starts with getting rid of this asshole today.
posted by adept256 at 5:39 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Win or lose, this is still going to be a huge problem with people within and outside the country working against a solution. My feeling is that the solution is going to be generational, teach the kids civics and bullshit detection.
Whatever the fix is, it starts with getting rid of this asshole today.
posted by adept256 at 5:39 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Jeez, my inner Ralph Wiggum is really going "Haha, I'm in danger" at full volume tonight. Lots of love and respect for anyone else whose cortisol is through the fucking roof right now.
posted by Rinku at 5:40 PM on November 5 [29 favorites]
posted by Rinku at 5:40 PM on November 5 [29 favorites]
May all voters who are getting suppressed have the courage to stay in line and be counted if they can.
posted by edithkeeler at 5:40 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by edithkeeler at 5:40 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
The cats can sense my stress and they’re mad at me.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:42 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:42 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I'm in a men's halfway house in Knoxville TN. I've heard most of them say pro-Trump stuff in the last few days. The TV is tuned to Fox. They think Trump is winning.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:43 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:43 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
The Onion's Spin.
(I'm calling something similar to 2020, with several days of dicking around and an eventual weekend win. A landslide would be nice, but hey.)
posted by ovvl at 5:44 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
(I'm calling something similar to 2020, with several days of dicking around and an eventual weekend win. A landslide would be nice, but hey.)
posted by ovvl at 5:44 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
mygodsmygodsMYGODS.
A BAD NIGHT FOR SMOKING A JEETER™
posted by clavdivs at 5:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
A BAD NIGHT FOR SMOKING A JEETER™
posted by clavdivs at 5:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Anyone else having a very hard time listening to Steve Kornaki? I know, I know, but he goes on and on about the minutia and I just want him to get on with it.
posted by blue shadows at 5:46 PM on November 5
posted by blue shadows at 5:46 PM on November 5
They think Trump is winning.
All of the sites seem to give Trump the win currently because they all are basing it off past returns and polling...so he's got like 60-70% win on Decision Desk and 278 electoral college votes on the NYT. Just screw this....they need to find a better way to rep this uncertainty. So much is up on the air yet I keep hyperventilating remembering how 2016 was called at like 9pm EST.
posted by beaning at 5:48 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
All of the sites seem to give Trump the win currently because they all are basing it off past returns and polling...so he's got like 60-70% win on Decision Desk and 278 electoral college votes on the NYT. Just screw this....they need to find a better way to rep this uncertainty. So much is up on the air yet I keep hyperventilating remembering how 2016 was called at like 9pm EST.
posted by beaning at 5:48 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
This election is not like the last ones. It's absurd to think it would be. It really isn't over until it's over.
posted by mollweide at 5:50 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by mollweide at 5:50 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
2016 was called at like 9pm EST
It was definitely later than that, but it wasn't looking good then.
posted by deludingmyself at 5:51 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
It was definitely later than that, but it wasn't looking good then.
posted by deludingmyself at 5:51 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Harris is doing worse with Hispanics (overall, not with each group) and African American males, and is not getting the boost in turnout that was hoped, BUT she is doing way better than expected with white women.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:52 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:52 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I remember 2016, I was driving home from an election night viewing party in the early morning hours when Pennsylvania was called--I heard it on the car radio.
posted by gimonca at 5:52 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by gimonca at 5:52 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
2016 was called at like 9pm EST
Yeah, it didn't look good at 9pm but I woke up at 3am and they had just called it. I'll never forget that.
posted by vrakatar at 5:52 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Yeah, it didn't look good at 9pm but I woke up at 3am and they had just called it. I'll never forget that.
posted by vrakatar at 5:52 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
BTW Twitter/X has been flooded by conservatives with the most insane AI slop about avenging Peanut the Squirrel. Worth checking out as the perfect snapshot of the utter stupidity of the current moment.
posted by star gentle uterus at 5:53 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by star gentle uterus at 5:53 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I feel woozy. Hate the wait.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:54 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:54 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
After over 200 years, the arcane and convoluted Electoral College mechanic has grown a little stale. I feel we should use modern game design to liven it up by making it even more arcane and convoluted.
We could add tickets from Ticket to Ride: an extra 10 electoral votes if you get the most of the original 13 colonies, Four corner bonus for getting Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona. Obviously winning your opponent's home state should be worth more.
Some states might have their own subsystem for determining votes. Michigan could have a packing efficiency subsystem like Feast for Odin or Patchwork: you have to win each county but you have arrange the counties by boundary onto a square, only gaining those votes in the square: real time gerrymandering!
West of the Mississippi should probably be some of deck-builder for issues: "Hmmm, 'Support Renewable Energy' is available for 15 Electoral Votes but 'Deficit Hawk' is really cheap at 2, I know '2nd Amendment Rights' is still in the deck, since I'm required to buy an issue, I'm going to just take 'Deficit Hawk' this turn, rollover the rest.
posted by lowtide at 5:55 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
We could add tickets from Ticket to Ride: an extra 10 electoral votes if you get the most of the original 13 colonies, Four corner bonus for getting Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Arizona. Obviously winning your opponent's home state should be worth more.
Some states might have their own subsystem for determining votes. Michigan could have a packing efficiency subsystem like Feast for Odin or Patchwork: you have to win each county but you have arrange the counties by boundary onto a square, only gaining those votes in the square: real time gerrymandering!
West of the Mississippi should probably be some of deck-builder for issues: "Hmmm, 'Support Renewable Energy' is available for 15 Electoral Votes but 'Deficit Hawk' is really cheap at 2, I know '2nd Amendment Rights' is still in the deck, since I'm required to buy an issue, I'm going to just take 'Deficit Hawk' this turn, rollover the rest.
posted by lowtide at 5:55 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
I held on to some measure of optimism for most of the day but this evening has me shook.
posted by prefpara at 5:56 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 5:56 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Change in Florida comes almost entirely from depressed Democratic turnout. Smells very fishy.
posted by cosmic owl at 5:56 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by cosmic owl at 5:56 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
2016 was called at like 9pm EST
No. I was living on the east coast at the time and we passed out around midnight and they hadn't called it yet.
Woke up the nexxt morning and switched the news on and knew instantly from the expressions on their faces who had won.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:00 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
No. I was living on the east coast at the time and we passed out around midnight and they hadn't called it yet.
Woke up the nexxt morning and switched the news on and knew instantly from the expressions on their faces who had won.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:00 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Florida counts fairly quickly -- 27 of 28 House races have been called, and it looks like no seats will change party control.
Florida Senate: Scott was leading in the polls by about 4 or 5 percent, he's now leading by 13% with 87% of the vote counted. So, Florida statewide polling continues to be awful and embarrassing.
posted by gimonca at 6:00 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Florida Senate: Scott was leading in the polls by about 4 or 5 percent, he's now leading by 13% with 87% of the vote counted. So, Florida statewide polling continues to be awful and embarrassing.
posted by gimonca at 6:00 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
The main thing to know is that a majority of your fellow citizens hate you, yes you personally, no matter who you are.
posted by aramaic at 6:02 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
posted by aramaic at 6:02 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
Are the results so far in line with the red mirage/blue wave effect? Because I remember my stomach turning over itself in 2020....
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:03 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:03 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Ok, fine, per the Guardian timeline was clear by 10-11pm that 2016 wasn't going as expected but Clinton didn't concede until early morning.
I was with family and I just remember all the guys being like "crap the guy I voted for looks to be the winner" and the women being like, "you did what?" Do not want a repeat of that this year.
posted by beaning at 6:04 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I was with family and I just remember all the guys being like "crap the guy I voted for looks to be the winner" and the women being like, "you did what?" Do not want a repeat of that this year.
posted by beaning at 6:04 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I just remembered a tweet from 2020, when Ira Madison III (who had a blue check) changed his display name to Beto O'Rourke and his pic to Beto's picture, and wrote "if Texas goes blue I'll release nudes." Anyway, Mr. Madison got banned that night but it made me laugh so hard and honestly still does.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:09 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:09 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The Trumpy precincts have gotten Trumpier, and have come in first. Whether the blue precincts come in equivalently bluer is yet to be seen.
posted by argybarg at 6:11 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:11 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Yeah this red mirage thing is fucken killing me. But I remember it being this way 4 years ago.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:13 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:13 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
Fucking Moldova went the right way on their election this week. Do you know how embarrassing it would be to make worse decisions than Moldova?
(Sorry, Moldova.)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:13 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
(Sorry, Moldova.)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:13 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
The Mexican place I was going to hit up was way too crowded, am at a pizza joint instead. They have MSNBC on and there are WAAAAY too many "too close to call " states for my comfort.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:14 PM on November 5
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:14 PM on November 5
WaPo says Florida's amendment to protect the right to abortion fails, 6 week ban remains in place. I'm so sorry, Florida friends.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:14 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:14 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Fuck DeSantis and his 60% threshold.
posted by lock robster at 6:15 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 6:15 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Florida amendment required a 60% vote to pass, for what it's worth. It sounds like it got 57%.
posted by gimonca at 6:16 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:16 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
The fucking NYT needle has Trump at 76%.
posted by argybarg at 6:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 6:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I'm not at all surprised about Florida. The influx of MAGA hat wearing loons has been massive. Sad about Amendments 2 and 3, though. I thought there was a good chance of them hitting 60%. I think they're both on track to hit over 50%, at least. Doesn't change anything, but it would make me feel a bit better about who I'm sharing space with.
posted by wierdo at 6:18 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 6:18 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
The fucking NYT needle is run for the benefit of the oligarchy.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:20 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:20 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
ABC Australia's projections ain't looking too hot either - 199 Harris, 218 Trump
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:22 PM on November 5
posted by creatrixtiara at 6:22 PM on November 5
I thought the Needle movers were on strike?
I don't know why I just imagined 7 little mice letting go of the needle and walking out on a picket line.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:25 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
I don't know why I just imagined 7 little mice letting go of the needle and walking out on a picket line.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:25 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
I just got home after 1.5 hours of traffic, took an hour just to get out of the city alone, I'm tired, I'm cranky, I don't WANNA go to rehearsal and we are doing the same beginning scenes we rehearsed over and over for the last two months and I could do in my sleep and I need better distraction than THAT if I absolutely have to go. At least do some new stuff. Oh well, don't know why I want to be home to see all the doom anyway. Might as well stay in the imaginary limbo I was in in the car listening to my emo audiobook.
Try Yelling Fuck!
(Basically I am posting this just so I can find where I left off as I try to sneak my phone while on stage 95% of the time. Sigh.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:25 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Try Yelling Fuck!
(Basically I am posting this just so I can find where I left off as I try to sneak my phone while on stage 95% of the time. Sigh.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:25 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Thinking – not for the first time, and surely not for the last – how very glad I am I don't have kids.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:25 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by non canadian guy at 6:25 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
I thought the Needle movers were on strike?
This must therefore be a scab Needle
posted by otherchaz at 6:26 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
This must therefore be a scab Needle
posted by otherchaz at 6:26 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
The IT folks for the Needle are on strike. It sounded like other people could input data, but if it were to break, the resources wouldn't be there to fix it.
Whoever takes this instrument of torture out of the basement every 2 years has a dark heart filled with malice.
posted by past unusual at 6:26 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Whoever takes this instrument of torture out of the basement every 2 years has a dark heart filled with malice.
posted by past unusual at 6:26 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Change in Florida comes almost entirely from depressed Democratic turnout. Smells very fishy.
Please don't do the "If we're losing the system must be rigged," with no evidence. There will be plenty of that crap on the other side.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:27 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Please don't do the "If we're losing the system must be rigged," with no evidence. There will be plenty of that crap on the other side.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:27 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Times like this make me especially glad to have kids.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:28 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:28 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I was supposed to have therapy at 5 today, but I called in to the admin office to give them my new information, since I just got started on Medicare and a supplement at the beginning of the month. They said they weren't allowed to do Medicare, so I had to cancel my much-needed appointment and don't know whether I'll be charged a cancellation fee or not. Started crying before I even hung up the phone. I could have probably kept it and paid out of pocket, but I'm a poor, so I didn't. What a day to find that out. I'm so scared I probably wouldn't even be able to have made any sense or spoken coherently anyway, but still, it would have been nice to kill an hour with someone who's basically supposed to talk you down from all that stress.
This just all feels like 2016 all over again. I feel like I'm going to throw up. My friend who worked a polling place in Philly though said it turned out to be a decent day and not nearly as terrifying as she had expected. But who knows what to expect.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 6:29 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
This just all feels like 2016 all over again. I feel like I'm going to throw up. My friend who worked a polling place in Philly though said it turned out to be a decent day and not nearly as terrifying as she had expected. But who knows what to expect.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 6:29 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Times like this make me especially glad to have klonopin.
posted by mochapickle at 6:29 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 6:29 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Oh fuck me, I'd literally kill for a Klonopin right now.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Times like this make me especially glad to have Metafilter
…and Lost Republic whiskey
posted by foonly at 6:32 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
…and Lost Republic whiskey
posted by foonly at 6:32 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Way too early to jump to conclusions. Republican states tend to report faster. No swing states have been called yet, and I wouldn't have expected any to be called by now anyway.
House races that have been called are the easy, uncompetitive ones, which includes a crapton of heavily gerrymandered Republican districts.
And remember, folks, when you see the maps....land doesn't vote.
posted by gimonca at 6:33 PM on November 5 [35 favorites]
House races that have been called are the easy, uncompetitive ones, which includes a crapton of heavily gerrymandered Republican districts.
And remember, folks, when you see the maps....land doesn't vote.
posted by gimonca at 6:33 PM on November 5 [35 favorites]
Currently Trump has 154 to Harris' 53. I know it's early still and I shouldn't be handwringing just yet but....
posted by zardoz at 6:34 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 6:34 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Oh fuck me, I'd literally kill for a Klonopin right now.
Hey, I texted you a list, let me know what you think!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:35 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Hey, I texted you a list, let me know what you think!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:35 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I just have ibuprofen and Tums it’ll have to do
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:35 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:35 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
You can't handwring just yet. It's not the blowout we wanted, but the suburban and city counties are the last to report, so all the swing states look redder now than they should.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:35 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:35 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
I am hearing on NBC that Trump is doing better than expected with young voters and black voters. That is disturbing. I get that not all the states are in yet, but doesn’t that suggest bad things coming down the road in the other states too? Or am I catastrophizing early?
posted by prefpara at 6:36 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 6:36 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Can anyone tell me how worried I should be about Virginia.
posted by runcifex at 6:37 PM on November 5
posted by runcifex at 6:37 PM on November 5
As to the race, I’ll probably go to sleep without looking at results too much, cause why worry over something I can’t control. If it’s gonna be shitshow then it can be dealt with tomorrow.
I don’t think it’s gonna be a shitshow, that comes later with a Republican Senate stopping Harris from doing a lot her first two years
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:38 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I don’t think it’s gonna be a shitshow, that comes later with a Republican Senate stopping Harris from doing a lot her first two years
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:38 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
And R's have the red southern states already counted. The west is more D friendly.
I mean I'm still terrified but trying to pull the reins on it a bit.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:38 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I mean I'm still terrified but trying to pull the reins on it a bit.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:38 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
If 2016 is any guide, now is the time to freak out. But they thought it was a blowout, and we've always known it was a coin-flip. Pretty sure Selzer whiffed it though.
posted by netowl at 6:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by netowl at 6:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
There've been articles about Trump making inroads with young Black and Hispanic male voters but it's hard to tell at this point what that will ultimately mean for the vote total, though it clearly means Dems/the libs have fucked up with those voter groups.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:39 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:39 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Can anyone tell me how worried I should be about Virginia.
I used to live in Virginia and the blue areas always count slow.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:41 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I used to live in Virginia and the blue areas always count slow.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:41 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
kill for a Klonopin
Name of my new punk band and wow! I remember Klonopin! We used to chomp on those!
posted by vrakatar at 6:41 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Name of my new punk band and wow! I remember Klonopin! We used to chomp on those!
posted by vrakatar at 6:41 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
And over on NBC there's been some claims that young voters on college campuses were swayed by Rogan's last minute endorsement.
posted by mochapickle at 6:41 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by mochapickle at 6:41 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Also, she hasn't lost anything Biden won in 2020. Panic if you want but it's still early.
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:42 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
posted by Emmy Rae at 6:42 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Senate is definitely going red.
posted by lock robster at 6:42 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by lock robster at 6:42 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
A lot of the skepticism around polling was that the pollsters were undercounting new black and younger voters who were mobilized by dobbs/harris. If those demos are moving toward trump it’s very bad
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:43 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:43 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
There've been articles about Trump making inroads with young Black and Hispanic male voters but it's hard to tell at this point what that will ultimately mean for the vote total, though it clearly means Dems/the libs have fucked up with those voter groups.
Or, alternatively, that misogynoir (including intra-Black misogynoir) is as much a pox on this country as racism and sexism are more generally.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:43 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Or, alternatively, that misogynoir (including intra-Black misogynoir) is as much a pox on this country as racism and sexism are more generally.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:43 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Well, NY state just voted in an ERA something like 75-25.
DAMN STRAIGHT.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:43 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
DAMN STRAIGHT.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:43 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
I genuinely need to figure out how to manage mentally when my home country - and in some cases, parts of states I have deep connections to - have become incomprehensible and increasingly menacing to me. And when my home city is no doubt going to become a whipping boy for the Trump regime. I have no answers, and no ability to leave.
posted by ryanshepard at 6:45 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by ryanshepard at 6:45 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
At this point every state has voted the same way it did in 2020. It would be nice if some had flipped but these results are meaningless so far.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:45 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:45 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
What’s an ERA?
And no, I’m not asking for the price vs in town.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
And no, I’m not asking for the price vs in town.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:45 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Still some blue areas that haven't finished reporting in Virginia. Wouldn't freak out...not just yet, let Arlington and Richmond come in, other bluish areas need to finish coming in.
Kaine is leading. Vindman is leading in Virginia-7.
posted by gimonca at 6:45 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Kaine is leading. Vindman is leading in Virginia-7.
posted by gimonca at 6:45 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Equal Rights Amendment
posted by prefpara at 6:48 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 6:48 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
What’s an ERA?
Equal Rights Amendment. Outlaws discrimination based on sex.
posted by NotLost at 6:48 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Equal Rights Amendment. Outlaws discrimination based on sex.
posted by NotLost at 6:48 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I'm finding this map the most useful on desktop browser because I can hover over each state and see the current count and percentage counted:
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
posted by Jacqueline at 6:48 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
posted by Jacqueline at 6:48 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
What’s an ERA?
Equal Rights Amendment. Basically it is now constitutionally illegal to discriminate on the basis of sex in NY state now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:50 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Equal Rights Amendment. Basically it is now constitutionally illegal to discriminate on the basis of sex in NY state now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:50 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Sarah McBride becomes the first out transgender person elected to congress. (Delaware)
posted by oneirodynia at 6:50 PM on November 5 [38 favorites]
posted by oneirodynia at 6:50 PM on November 5 [38 favorites]
Earned run average, the new law will compel all NY state residents to play recreational baseball.
posted by vrakatar at 6:51 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 6:51 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
I am watching local races too, and it seems like results are coming in more slowly than I've ever seen. We think maybe it's because more people were in line, meaning the polls closed later. (This is in New Mexico.)
posted by NotLost at 6:51 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 6:51 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Or, alternatively, that misogynoir (including intra-Black misogynoir) is as much a pox on this country as racism and sexism are more generally.
non canadian guy
No, it means the Dems/libs have fucked up with those voter groups. You're just making excuses.
I think there's been a lot of complacency with regard to these groups and other POC on the left because it's been assumed that obviously they would always support Democrats and would never go to the right. This complacency has maybe led to not actually delivering as much for these groups because why work hard for voters already in the bag? I think this is the result, leaving openings for Republicans to peel off their voters.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:51 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
non canadian guy
No, it means the Dems/libs have fucked up with those voter groups. You're just making excuses.
I think there's been a lot of complacency with regard to these groups and other POC on the left because it's been assumed that obviously they would always support Democrats and would never go to the right. This complacency has maybe led to not actually delivering as much for these groups because why work hard for voters already in the bag? I think this is the result, leaving openings for Republicans to peel off their voters.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:51 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Have we talked about Sarah McBride winning the Delaware congressional seat? She will be the first openly transgender member of Congress!
posted by Fritzle at 6:51 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
posted by Fritzle at 6:51 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
If this ERA is new, that’s unexpected, especially for NY State.
We had that in 1977 in New South Wales plus 1984 federally down under.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:52 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
We had that in 1977 in New South Wales plus 1984 federally down under.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:52 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Young voters trending toward Trump has another obvious explanation - the left-leaning folks who are not voting for Harris because of Gaza. How many are there? I don’t think anyone has quantified it, but it’s a factor.
posted by mai at 6:53 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by mai at 6:53 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a THING.
posted by kybix at 6:55 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by kybix at 6:55 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Little bit of good news, Sharice Davids has been re-elected in Kansas-3.
posted by gimonca at 6:56 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 6:56 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
We should probably wait for the postmortem until after the patient is actually dead.
posted by mittens at 6:56 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by mittens at 6:56 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
A third explanation is it’s the demographic that’s known only post-9/11 wartime tactical masculinity their entire lives
posted by Jon_Evil at 6:56 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 6:56 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes. It literally makes no sense.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:56 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:56 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Not that it's relevant or anything, but I just got laid off today (entire subsidiary in Canada just closed) - TFG winning would make my getting another job all that much harder.
Best wishes, American friends.
posted by porpoise at 6:57 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Best wishes, American friends.
posted by porpoise at 6:57 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
ELECTION ALERT: Still Too Early To Know Which Minority To Scapegoat [The Onion]
posted by aubilenon at 6:58 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
posted by aubilenon at 6:58 PM on November 5 [22 favorites]
Another option: we are but the playthings of a trickster god
posted by dis_integration at 6:59 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 6:59 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
This is all so fucking embarassing.
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:59 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:59 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Here's a picture of Jill Stein dining with Putin and Michael Flynn.
posted by adept256 at 6:59 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 6:59 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes. It literally makes no sense.
The people who were so fucking obnoxious about "she has to earn my vote!!1!" when the stakes of this election were clear? Fuck that, they're getting blamed.
posted by azpenguin at 7:00 PM on November 5 [40 favorites]
The people who were so fucking obnoxious about "she has to earn my vote!!1!" when the stakes of this election were clear? Fuck that, they're getting blamed.
posted by azpenguin at 7:00 PM on November 5 [40 favorites]
Yet, not voting for Harris does make sense as to why Trump could win this election. So...
posted by kybix at 7:01 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by kybix at 7:01 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes
Wrong.
In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person.
Failing to understand that lies behind quite a lot of leftist failures over the past century and a half.
posted by aramaic at 7:01 PM on November 5 [32 favorites]
Wrong.
In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person.
Failing to understand that lies behind quite a lot of leftist failures over the past century and a half.
posted by aramaic at 7:01 PM on November 5 [32 favorites]
Looking at the math thus far, I don't think third-party voting is going to matter enough to warrant the vituperation to come.
posted by mittens at 7:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by mittens at 7:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Please don't blame people who aren't voting Trump for Trump getting votes. It literally makes no sense.
Someone is going to be elected President from this election. That someone is going to be Trump or not-Trump, which in practical terms is Harris. So while they didn't get Trump votes they also did not add to the not-Trump numbers when they could have done so by voting for Harris, which either way allows for a Trump victory.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:03 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Someone is going to be elected President from this election. That someone is going to be Trump or not-Trump, which in practical terms is Harris. So while they didn't get Trump votes they also did not add to the not-Trump numbers when they could have done so by voting for Harris, which either way allows for a Trump victory.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:03 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
To be clear I am not blaming anyone who didn’t vote for Harris, and I do think politicians have to earn our votes. Nor am I doing a post-mortem, it’s obviously not over yet.
I was responding to the earlier comment about why Trump might be getting a relatively larger share of younger voters.
posted by mai at 7:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
I was responding to the earlier comment about why Trump might be getting a relatively larger share of younger voters.
posted by mai at 7:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Nearly two-thirds of Arizonans who backed Harris said they viewed their ballot as a vote for her, while about a third of her supporters said it was a vote against Trump. That’s according to AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of more than 4,100 voters in the state. Among Trump's voters, about 8 in 10 said their vote was for him. Only about 2 in 10 said it was a vote against Harris.
posted by lock robster at 7:03 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 7:03 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
So, I would simply like to say this. Before you blame the left for delivering less than 1% of the vote to Jill Stein, please consider how easy it would have been for Kamala Harris to have pretended to give just the finest smidgen of a fuck about their concerns. This was an unforced error, and it was foolish.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:03 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:03 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]
Early voting + vacation felt like a good avoidance measure, but I flew home today.
posted by Sphinx at 7:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Sphinx at 7:03 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
This was an unforced error, and it was foolish.
I guess, but however much Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction, Trump sure as shit isn't going to do any better for them.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:05 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
I guess, but however much Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction, Trump sure as shit isn't going to do any better for them.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:05 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person.
Do you think those people are voting for Trump because they hate Kamala Harris? I don't. I think they're voting for exactly what they want.
Look, you don't have to like the idea that people vote for candidates they want to see win, but I do think it would be a good idea to accept it as a highly plausible reality.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:06 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Do you think those people are voting for Trump because they hate Kamala Harris? I don't. I think they're voting for exactly what they want.
Look, you don't have to like the idea that people vote for candidates they want to see win, but I do think it would be a good idea to accept it as a highly plausible reality.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:06 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
NBC says there was a PA exit poll where Latino voters broke hard for Trump and I would like please to live in a sane world. But I do not seem to. This is like being in a horror movie.
posted by prefpara at 7:06 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 7:06 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Colorado update via Colorado Public Radio's live blog:
At 7:50 p.m., I called the PIO of El Paso County Clerk and Recorder's office about the lack of any election results — especially because El Paso County is the state's most populous county. The spokesperson said they still have people waiting on line to vote,and will not release results until everyone who has lined up to vote by 7 p.m. has a chance to have done so. That means it could be until 8:30 p.m. or 8:45 before they release their results, the PIO told me.posted by audi alteram partem at 7:07 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Let's not litigate Gaza here.
posted by NotLost at 7:07 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 7:07 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
This was an unforced error, and it was foolish.
They weighed the scales and gambled you were lighter. They may yet be right, or wrong, but you can rejoice in the fact that more Palestinians will die when he wins.
Congrats! They’re all going to die, like literally all of them! You won!
Yay?
posted by aramaic at 7:07 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
They weighed the scales and gambled you were lighter. They may yet be right, or wrong, but you can rejoice in the fact that more Palestinians will die when he wins.
Congrats! They’re all going to die, like literally all of them! You won!
Yay?
posted by aramaic at 7:07 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
"In a two-party system you don’t vote FOR anyone so much as you vote against the other person."
If my husband and I -- both lifelong Libertarians -- could suck it up and support* Harris this election because we recognize the exisistenial threat posed by Trump, then leftists and progressives have no excuse.
(*Technically we voted for de la Cruz, but only because we vote-swapped with some Socialists in Pennsylvania to get them to vote Harris in a state where it actually mattered. We live in Washington, which is a safe blue state, so the best use of our votes was to swap.)
posted by Jacqueline at 7:09 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
If my husband and I -- both lifelong Libertarians -- could suck it up and support* Harris this election because we recognize the exisistenial threat posed by Trump, then leftists and progressives have no excuse.
(*Technically we voted for de la Cruz, but only because we vote-swapped with some Socialists in Pennsylvania to get them to vote Harris in a state where it actually mattered. We live in Washington, which is a safe blue state, so the best use of our votes was to swap.)
posted by Jacqueline at 7:09 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
I'm just saying, I could see it coming. I'm not saying anybody has to like it or agree with it. I hope, though, that people might start to get the idea that actually appealing to your base could get you elected. It worked for Trump once and it may again.
That said, right now the blue and red states are identical to 2020. I know it seems scary but this is basically a time zone thing, which states finish counting first. It would be fine if Harris won West Virginia and Kentucky, but it can't be too surprising that she didn't.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:11 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
That said, right now the blue and red states are identical to 2020. I know it seems scary but this is basically a time zone thing, which states finish counting first. It would be fine if Harris won West Virginia and Kentucky, but it can't be too surprising that she didn't.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:11 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Leftists and progressives are not "the base" of the Democratic Party.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:12 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:12 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
ABC Australia: Palestinians in Jerusalem speak on the US election
The narrow, winding laneways of Jerusalem’s ancient Old City seem a world away from the electoral carnival happening in the United States.posted by creatrixtiara at 7:13 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
But people here are paying close attention to what’s going on – knowing full well that whoever takes the White House will have dealing with the Middle East conflict among the top items on their presidential to-do list.
The Old City is as divided as this region, and in the Muslim Quarter there’s serious scepticism anything will actually change.
Four generations of Adnan Ja’far’s family have been running a sweets shop in the Old City for the last 70 years.
He’s not convinced either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will help the situation.
“For me, personally, they are all the same for Palestinians,” he said.
“I don’t think they can move for us, or make something for Palestinians, because they’re always helping the war – and the aeroplanes and the bombs, they give it to them.”
That’s a reference to US military aid to Israel – which continues, despite the Biden administration’s criticism of Israel allowing humanitarian support into Gaza.
It’s a sentiment shared by 63-year-old Muna, shopping nearby.
“The US election is not good for Palestinians. Either Trump or either the other one – they are not good for Palestine.”
When pressed on why, she turned her head and said the world would know her reasons for making those comments.
33-year-old Duaa Saideh has a bit more hope change is coming. And she thinks it’s in the form of Kamala Harris.
She said former president Trump’s controversial decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, recognising the disputed Holy City as Israel’s capital, is seared into the minds of Palestinians.
“We know him before, and what he did in Jerusalem is not that good for us.”
Nearby, 57-year-old Tawfik is watching on from a restaurant.
He’s no Trump or Harris fan – but says at least you know what you’re getting with the former president.
In other words, if Donald Trump is going to support Israel over the Palestinians, Tawfik thinks he’ll be upfront about it rather than giving the community false hope.
“Trump when he promise, he keeps his promises - he’s a businessman,” he said.
“For me, the less bad is Trump. I hope he will win.”
Leftists and progressives are not "the base" of the Democratic Party.
Well, they're a fuck of a lot closer to it than Dick Cheney.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:14 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
Well, they're a fuck of a lot closer to it than Dick Cheney.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:14 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
I guess I'll just never understand this line of thinking:
Voter: "I'm extremely concerned about the environment. What are you going to do for me?"
Candidate A: "I'm not going to do as much as you want but I'll do something."
Candidate B: "I intend to make recycling illegal, require lead in gasoline, and will have every forest on federal land burned down and cleared for private strip mining and oil drilling."
Voter: "Candidate A is generally more aligned with my views but isn't giving me enough to earn my vote so I'm going to sit this one out and vote for no one."
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:14 PM on November 5 [55 favorites]
Voter: "I'm extremely concerned about the environment. What are you going to do for me?"
Candidate A: "I'm not going to do as much as you want but I'll do something."
Candidate B: "I intend to make recycling illegal, require lead in gasoline, and will have every forest on federal land burned down and cleared for private strip mining and oil drilling."
Voter: "Candidate A is generally more aligned with my views but isn't giving me enough to earn my vote so I'm going to sit this one out and vote for no one."
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:14 PM on November 5 [55 favorites]
Congrats! They’re all going to die, like literally all of them! You won!
Pls, this is totally unnecessary
posted by ginger.beef at 7:14 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Pls, this is totally unnecessary
posted by ginger.beef at 7:14 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
well yeah, the whole democratic party told them to fuck off so I would hope they could figure it out.
posted by Iax at 7:14 PM on November 5
posted by Iax at 7:14 PM on November 5
I guess, but however much Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction, Trump sure as shit isn't going to do any better for them.
Let's not litigate Gaza here.
No need (or point) to litigate Gaza here.... but let's not pretend that Harris's potentially lost votes are because of some abstract progressive/left issues that "Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction"... these votes are lost because of Gaza.
And in the case of arab voters in Michigan, for example, this is a very difficult issue to overlook. And Harris and her surrogates did absolutely nothing to mollify their concerns (or give them hope for a different path than Biden has taken). Instead they sent people like Bill Clinton to lecture Palestinians in Michigan about how Gaza is their fault. And Liz Cheney.
posted by pjenks at 7:15 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Let's not litigate Gaza here.
No need (or point) to litigate Gaza here.... but let's not pretend that Harris's potentially lost votes are because of some abstract progressive/left issues that "Harris didn't deliver to their satisfaction"... these votes are lost because of Gaza.
And in the case of arab voters in Michigan, for example, this is a very difficult issue to overlook. And Harris and her surrogates did absolutely nothing to mollify their concerns (or give them hope for a different path than Biden has taken). Instead they sent people like Bill Clinton to lecture Palestinians in Michigan about how Gaza is their fault. And Liz Cheney.
posted by pjenks at 7:15 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
My alcoholic family member has broken sobriety and I can’t even really be mad about it.
However, can we wait to fight about who is responsible for Harris losing until Harris has…you know…actually lost?
posted by corb at 7:15 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
However, can we wait to fight about who is responsible for Harris losing until Harris has…you know…actually lost?
posted by corb at 7:15 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
The Blue mountain and Pacific west have yet to be really called. Battlegrounds, granted their sensitivity, have a lot more counting left to go.
Night - young
posted by JoeXIII007 at 7:17 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Night - young
posted by JoeXIII007 at 7:17 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Leftists and progressives are not "the base" of the Democratic Party.
Yes, my point is that my husband and I are even farther from being in "the base" and yet we still voted like our choice this year was Democrats or fascism. So why couldn't people who have even fewer differences than we have with the Harris campaign and mainstream Democrats also figure that out and do the right thing?
posted by Jacqueline at 7:18 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Yes, my point is that my husband and I are even farther from being in "the base" and yet we still voted like our choice this year was Democrats or fascism. So why couldn't people who have even fewer differences than we have with the Harris campaign and mainstream Democrats also figure that out and do the right thing?
posted by Jacqueline at 7:18 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Can someone help me understand, sincerely, if the nyt needle is generally accurate?
I’m kind of freaking out
posted by das_2099 at 7:18 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I’m kind of freaking out
posted by das_2099 at 7:18 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Do you know anywhere that has a cartogram for this election? That's a type of map where, in this case, the size of the states are adjusted in proportion to the number of electoral votes they each have.
Because land doesn't vote.
posted by NotLost at 7:18 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Because land doesn't vote.
posted by NotLost at 7:18 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
even fewer differences than we have with the Harris campaign and mainstream Democrats
Being against genocide is kind of a big difference?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:19 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Being against genocide is kind of a big difference?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:19 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
It's a scab needle and it is not to be trusted.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:19 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:19 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
The Blue mountain and Pacific west have yet to be really called.
Yeah feel free to just add 78 electoral votes to Harris for WA, OR, CA, HI until those states are added to the total.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:20 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Yeah feel free to just add 78 electoral votes to Harris for WA, OR, CA, HI until those states are added to the total.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:20 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
WaPo has a cartogram but it may be subscribers only.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/president/
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:20 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/president/
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:20 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I've spent the last two decades using my vote for Nader as a cautionary tale. Facts are facts and reality is tough. We lose in a big way if we don't make smart moves of smaller progress in lieu of expected progress. We, who care, lose and concede power to something worse. I hope that's not happening right now.
posted by kybix at 7:21 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by kybix at 7:21 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
@kittens for breakfast:
Can you expand on that a little?
I’m not being argumentative, I’m just losing it a bit
posted by das_2099 at 7:21 PM on November 5
Can you expand on that a little?
I’m not being argumentative, I’m just losing it a bit
posted by das_2099 at 7:21 PM on November 5
Being against genocide is kind of a big difference?
Libertarians are also against genocide AND we're against Democratic economic policies, so again, we have far more differences with her than you do and yet we were still capable of recognizing that defeating Trump was more important.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:22 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Libertarians are also against genocide AND we're against Democratic economic policies, so again, we have far more differences with her than you do and yet we were still capable of recognizing that defeating Trump was more important.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:22 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
The needle it crew all went on strike yesterday
posted by Iax at 7:22 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Iax at 7:22 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
We are going to lose, it feels like.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:23 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:23 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
CNN reporting that officials in Nevada are having problems verifying authenticity of a large number of ballots from young people. Apparently the signatures aren't matching because youngsters (in their 20s) don't know how to write their names.
posted by sardonyx at 7:23 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by sardonyx at 7:23 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I've gotten impatient with leftists and the pure illogic of thinking that abstaining from voting is dismantling the US presidency in any way.
posted by ichomp at 7:23 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 7:23 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
The tech side of NYT is on strike. Literally. So whoever is making the needle happen is a scab who may or may not have an idea what the fuck they're doing. Even if they do, you have a moral duty to ignore that needle.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:24 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:24 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
The impression I’ve gotten from Harris surrogates like Obama recently is that Hispanic and Black men haven’t shown up for Harris any better than White men
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:24 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:24 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
The Australian ABC has a map that turns the states into hexagons that represent electoral college votes: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-election-2024-live-results-electoral-map-who-is-winning/104514296
They use the AP as the basis for their calls.
posted by freethefeet at 7:24 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
They use the AP as the basis for their calls.
posted by freethefeet at 7:24 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
AND we're against Democratic economic policies
So are actual leftists and socialists? That isn't really a very strong argument.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:25 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
So are actual leftists and socialists? That isn't really a very strong argument.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:25 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Harris leading Maricopa County with 54% of the vote counted. Looks like that time in AZ has paid off.
posted by lock robster at 7:26 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 7:26 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Missed an hour of results. hang on...
posted by Windopaene at 7:27 PM on November 5
posted by Windopaene at 7:27 PM on November 5
Yeah feel free to just add 78 electoral votes to Harris for WA, OR, CA, HI until those states are added to the total.
Yeah it’s not looking *good* but the battleground states are still toss-ups afaik.
posted by corb at 7:27 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Yeah it’s not looking *good* but the battleground states are still toss-ups afaik.
posted by corb at 7:27 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I've always said the whole problem with the American left is, it's too big and strong, too vast, the way it is perpetually the deciding factor whenever Democrats don't get their way.
posted by mittens at 7:28 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
posted by mittens at 7:28 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
I'm much preferring 270 to win to decision desk . I took my sleep and allergy meds, so now to try to sleep and hopefully wake up to a sane world tomorrow
posted by Art_Pot at 7:28 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Art_Pot at 7:28 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Guys, can we not rip each other to shreds over this election while its still uncertain? Heck, can we not rip each other to shreds even afterward? If this goes badly its because a fuck ton of our fellow Americans voted positively for a fascist. Even if you think someone should have voted for Harris but didn't, or if you think Harris should have run her campaign differently, neither the Harris protesters or the Harris supporters are the real enemy.
posted by Reverend John at 7:28 PM on November 5 [35 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 7:28 PM on November 5 [35 favorites]
We’ll see if in 2028 democrats finally learn that most people prefer to get excited about voting for a candidate rather than excited to vote against the other side.
posted by paulcole at 7:28 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by paulcole at 7:28 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
NotLost the folks at the Australian ABC have got your back; it's the kind of projection they apply for Australian electoral maps.
posted by MarchHare at 7:28 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by MarchHare at 7:28 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Could we maybe not fight each other until at least one swing state has been called?
posted by invincible summer at 7:28 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
posted by invincible summer at 7:28 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Bomb threats against Atlanta polling places originated in Russia
posted by corb at 7:31 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
posted by corb at 7:31 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
I've always said the whole problem with the American left is, it's too big and strong, too vast, the way it is perpetually the deciding factor whenever Democrats don't get their way.
These takes are always weird to me. Recent elections have been decided by just a few thousand or even few hundred votes. The whole point is that modern elections are so close that even the smallest shift in voters can make a difference.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
These takes are always weird to me. Recent elections have been decided by just a few thousand or even few hundred votes. The whole point is that modern elections are so close that even the smallest shift in voters can make a difference.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:31 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Art_Pot, your link is a user-generated map; it doesn't reflect reality, unfortunately. :( wistful thinking though!
posted by dubious_dude at 7:31 PM on November 5
posted by dubious_dude at 7:31 PM on November 5
AP themselves have a map with boxes for electoral votes and hover for more information. (It's not a cartogram though)
posted by ctmf at 7:31 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ctmf at 7:31 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
We’ll see if in 2028 democrats finally learn that most people prefer to get excited about voting for a candidate rather than excited to vote against the other side.
But then they would have to stop celebrating all the 2000 era republican monsters
posted by Iax at 7:31 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
But then they would have to stop celebrating all the 2000 era republican monsters
posted by Iax at 7:31 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I keep saying it, but from what I can tell not one state has flipped from 2020 so far. I understand it would be more exciting to win dramatically, but this doesn't look like losing yet. It looks like a rerun.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:32 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:32 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
Thanks for the info re: the needle - i knew the tech staff was on strike (no wordle or nyt crosswords here) - i didn’t put together theat they ran the needle
posted by das_2099 at 7:34 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by das_2099 at 7:34 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
AAAAAAAAAAAH OOOOOOOOHHHHHHH SHIIIIIIIIITTTT FUUUUUUCCCCCK.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:34 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:34 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
In summary, please send your immigrant/trans kids to my house and we will hide them in our basement.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:35 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:35 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Pennsylvania is making me nervous. I know we need to wait and see but the early Harris lead turning into a knife's edge favoring TFG is not bringing me joy.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 7:35 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Ignorantsavage at 7:35 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Just watched some news.
Fuck me.
Just, how?, c'mon blue/purple states
posted by Windopaene at 7:36 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Fuck me.
Just, how?, c'mon blue/purple states
posted by Windopaene at 7:36 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Yeah, I keep saying it, but from what I can tell not one state has flipped from 2020 so far.
I believe Decision Desk has called Georgia for Trump
posted by fortitude25 at 7:36 PM on November 5
I believe Decision Desk has called Georgia for Trump
posted by fortitude25 at 7:36 PM on November 5
These takes are always weird to me.
It was kind of a dumb quip but like, when the margins are that small, it's never the center-right or whoever that get blamed for the loss. Nor was the left celebrated during Biden's win--nobody was patting socialists on the back for getting him in. The left's role in American politics always seems to be the scapegoat, and that can't possibly be accurate (or fair).
posted by mittens at 7:36 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
It was kind of a dumb quip but like, when the margins are that small, it's never the center-right or whoever that get blamed for the loss. Nor was the left celebrated during Biden's win--nobody was patting socialists on the back for getting him in. The left's role in American politics always seems to be the scapegoat, and that can't possibly be accurate (or fair).
posted by mittens at 7:36 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
What?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:36 PM on November 5
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:36 PM on November 5
CNN live expert analysis says: “Trump holds leads in GA, NC, and now in PA -- but there are still plenty of votes to be counted for Harris to come back. For instance, Trump has now taken the lead in Pennsylvania by 58,000 votes. But at this exact point in 2020, Trump led by 200,000 votes. Looks like a long night -- and maybe some days after that.”
posted by brook horse at 7:37 PM on November 5 [27 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 7:37 PM on November 5 [27 favorites]
Boebert called for her new district, CO-04. You'll remember she switched to Ken Buck's old seat when it looked like she'd lose CO-03.
posted by mochapickle at 7:37 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by mochapickle at 7:37 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
neither the Harris protesters or the Harris supporters are the real enemy
Not enemies, but tonight as we're all watching... is a numbers game. And Harris protesters who didn't vote for her contribute to the numbers game. I do empathize with thoughts, beliefs... I might even feel the same way. But this exercise we are going through, is a numbers game. And not voting for Harris contributes. Just facts.
posted by kybix at 7:39 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Not enemies, but tonight as we're all watching... is a numbers game. And Harris protesters who didn't vote for her contribute to the numbers game. I do empathize with thoughts, beliefs... I might even feel the same way. But this exercise we are going through, is a numbers game. And not voting for Harris contributes. Just facts.
posted by kybix at 7:39 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
the whole problem with the American left is, it's too big and strong, too vast
Really? I consider myself generally to be a leftist, and this is the last thing that would occur to me to describe the American left.
posted by Rykey at 7:39 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Really? I consider myself generally to be a leftist, and this is the last thing that would occur to me to describe the American left.
posted by Rykey at 7:39 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Oh: and it's pretty obvious by now, that Ann Seltzer poll of Iowa was completely wrong. NYT just called Iowa for Trump.
posted by fortitude25 at 7:42 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by fortitude25 at 7:42 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
We’ll see if in 2028 democrats finally learn that most people prefer to get excited about voting for a candidate rather than excited to vote against the other side.
So long as voting against the worse choice isn't enough, the worse choice will win more, and more, and more.
posted by tclark at 7:42 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
So long as voting against the worse choice isn't enough, the worse choice will win more, and more, and more.
posted by tclark at 7:42 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Really? I consider myself generally to be a leftist, and this is the last thing that would occur to me to describe the American left.
Maybe you're not in the right discords?
posted by ryanrs at 7:42 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Maybe you're not in the right discords?
posted by ryanrs at 7:42 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
OK, so Trump's foreign allies called in bomb threats to polling places in Democratic areas in Georgia, preventing thousands of people from voting, and now Georgia is looking like it's going to go Trump and if it costs Harris the win she's just going to do what Gore did and let happen isn't she?
posted by sotonohito at 7:42 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by sotonohito at 7:42 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Dammit I said I wasn't gonna stress over this but here I am, stressing over this. The same folks that said Harris is going to win also said she's win North Carolina, also maybe Florida. That didn't happen. Right now Pennsylvania really does look like a coin flip. Someone please talk me down.
posted by zardoz at 7:43 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 7:43 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Oh gosh, everyone got their tickets to get out of the country yet?
posted by sammyo at 7:43 PM on November 5
posted by sammyo at 7:43 PM on November 5
Ok i need to check out from this thread and listen to some music (probably Gong and Magma). Much love to the MF mods, need to up my contribution
Whatever happens we need to take care and fight tomorrow. My parents (Rip) made it through poverty, the Depression, the dust bowl and ww2 and died from COVID , i kinda feel obligated to do whatever i can
posted by foonly at 7:43 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Whatever happens we need to take care and fight tomorrow. My parents (Rip) made it through poverty, the Depression, the dust bowl and ww2 and died from COVID , i kinda feel obligated to do whatever i can
posted by foonly at 7:43 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
It was kind of a dumb quip but like, when the margins are that small, it's never the center-right or whoever that get blamed for the loss.
People who voted for a fascist were always going to do so. They're a lost cause. It's far more frustrating when someone who isn't so inclined didn't do what they can to stop the fascist.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:44 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
People who voted for a fascist were always going to do so. They're a lost cause. It's far more frustrating when someone who isn't so inclined didn't do what they can to stop the fascist.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:44 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
I am a middle class, suburban, white guy, and even I don't think a Trump presidency will be good for me. Who the fuck thinks they'll benefit under the heel of his disgusting troupe of Nazis??
posted by wenestvedt at 7:44 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 7:44 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]
The time to pressure candidates and support other candidates is the primaries. You don't have a lot of leverage in a year when there's an incumbent president, because they typically don't have serious opponents in the primaries.
Doing anything but voting for the least-bad option in the general election helps the worse option win.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:45 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Doing anything but voting for the least-bad option in the general election helps the worse option win.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:45 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Argh, I can't do this any more, I'm off to bed. I can't. I can't. This feels just like election night 2016. Night all.
posted by Rykey at 7:45 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
posted by Rykey at 7:45 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
I'm calling it too. Unless something drastically, radically, changes, Trump is going to win the election, and there is halfway decent chance he will win the popular vote.
posted by fortitude25 at 7:47 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by fortitude25 at 7:47 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I've said it before: Americans are hella smart, but America is the dumbest country on the planet.
posted by dobbs at 7:47 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by dobbs at 7:47 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Just expect the worst, that Trump wins. It'll soften the blow later.
posted by zardoz at 7:47 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 7:47 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
People who voted for a fascist were always going to do so. They're a lost cause.
I see your point, but what was all the Liz Cheney stuff about then?
posted by mittens at 7:48 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I see your point, but what was all the Liz Cheney stuff about then?
posted by mittens at 7:48 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Right now Pennsylvania really does look like a coin flip. Someone please talk me down.
Trump leads in GA, but those bomb threats in Democratic precincts meant that those sites stayed open later to make up time, so they are later reporting their votes - which means the good votes are coming last, which is why the AP hasn’t called it.
Similarly, Pennsylvania votes are going to be counted until 1am - especially in Democratic districts. Remember that Republican districts have fewer voters and so are easier to count.
posted by corb at 7:50 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Trump leads in GA, but those bomb threats in Democratic precincts meant that those sites stayed open later to make up time, so they are later reporting their votes - which means the good votes are coming last, which is why the AP hasn’t called it.
Similarly, Pennsylvania votes are going to be counted until 1am - especially in Democratic districts. Remember that Republican districts have fewer voters and so are easier to count.
posted by corb at 7:50 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Brian Williams just reported things are looking very good for Harris in PA.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:50 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:50 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
The Dem establishment is irredeemable.
posted by postagepaid at 7:50 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
posted by postagepaid at 7:50 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
The only House races to flip so far have been in North Carolina, mostly due to the brutal gerrymandering by Republicans that's in play for the first time this election cycle. NC-14 might be a bit of a surprise flip, but it hadn't been polled publicly at all. NC-6 and NC-13 were both all but certain to flip to Republicans after the gerrymandering. There wasn't even a Democratic candidate in NC-6.
NC-1 was another district at risk for Democrats, results still pending there. The Democrat, Davis, leads by about 2 points, with 78% of the vote counted.
A little over half the House races have been called...basically the easy ones. Only about 20% of House races were even mildly competitive, about 60 to 65, only a smaller subset of those were strongly contested at all.
My count is 89 D, 137 R, 209 pending. Lots of D seats from the west coast will show up in the totals soon.
posted by gimonca at 7:56 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
NC-1 was another district at risk for Democrats, results still pending there. The Democrat, Davis, leads by about 2 points, with 78% of the vote counted.
A little over half the House races have been called...basically the easy ones. Only about 20% of House races were even mildly competitive, about 60 to 65, only a smaller subset of those were strongly contested at all.
My count is 89 D, 137 R, 209 pending. Lots of D seats from the west coast will show up in the totals soon.
posted by gimonca at 7:56 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Is it wrong to hope Trump will just die soon.
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:58 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:58 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
Is it wrong to hope Trump will just die soon.
JD Vance would be worse because he's actually coherent enough to execute a strategy.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:59 PM on November 5 [36 favorites]
JD Vance would be worse because he's actually coherent enough to execute a strategy.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:59 PM on November 5 [36 favorites]
The 'black nazi' in NC just lost his job.
posted by adept256 at 7:59 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 7:59 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
Feels like we should be able to suss out how much Harris is underperforming other Dem candidates or ballot initiative if the protest is actually having an effect. I have friends who voted third party as a protest in Ohio but would have still voted for the anti-gerrymandering initiative.
(If the election were at all close there I'd be mad at them but it really looks like Ohio is swinging right for the foreseeable future.)
posted by mikesch at 8:01 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
(If the election were at all close there I'd be mad at them but it really looks like Ohio is swinging right for the foreseeable future.)
posted by mikesch at 8:01 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
how various Democratic Senate candidates are performing compared to Kamala:
Gallego (AZ): +7.5
Brown (OH): +7.0
Osborn (NE): +5.3
Allred (TX): +4.6
Baldwin (WI): +3.5
Kaine (VA): +3.5
Slotkin (MI): +2.7
Kim (NJ): +2.6
Casey (PA): +2.2
Mucarsel-Powell (FL): +0.3
posted by Iax at 8:02 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Gallego (AZ): +7.5
Brown (OH): +7.0
Osborn (NE): +5.3
Allred (TX): +4.6
Baldwin (WI): +3.5
Kaine (VA): +3.5
Slotkin (MI): +2.7
Kim (NJ): +2.6
Casey (PA): +2.2
Mucarsel-Powell (FL): +0.3
posted by Iax at 8:02 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I know I'm getting older because I think I'm going to bed now. But pretty sure we're looking down the barrel of another four years of Trump. I guess it's better that we got a four year reprieve? Minus, you know, a genocide.
posted by coffeecat at 8:05 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 8:05 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Getting some of those lost causes to stay home an getting Harris voters jazzed up enough to make a plan and actually show up to vote.
It's not a bell curve with a big fat chunk of moderates in the middle. Those people exist but voting is enough of a chore that they generally don't bother. So mostly you're dealing with the cranks more towards the tails who care enough to vote somewhere between most and all of the time.
So your biggest pool of potential votes are the folks that are going to vote blue but only if they're excited to vote or it looks like they can vote for a winner, voting is the cool thing, etc.
The GOP is typically different in that most people don't like their policies so it's most about getting dem voters to stay home and making it hard enough to vote that the just-enthusiastic-enough-to-vote-this-time but usually doesn't voter turns into the "aw fuck it, maybe at the mid-terms" non-voter.
But while I'm sure that's true to some extent I don't know if it's as true as it used to be since now all young men listen to Joe-obvious-dumb-ass-dip-shit Rogan. He knows fuck-all about lifting too you dumb assholes.*
Sorry I got worked up. But look at all the time you spent reading that where you were NOT obsessively refreshing results. Yeah I took a couple breaks to check too.
*This one bugs me because I'm a powerlifter but I'm in my 40's and started later in life so I really have to work at it. If those young assholes listened to someone that knew what the fuck they were talking about, they'd get so much stronger so much faster with WAY less injury. I wouldn't be able to make that kind of progress if I were on steroids. Youth has never been more wasted on the young.
posted by VTX at 8:06 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
It's not a bell curve with a big fat chunk of moderates in the middle. Those people exist but voting is enough of a chore that they generally don't bother. So mostly you're dealing with the cranks more towards the tails who care enough to vote somewhere between most and all of the time.
So your biggest pool of potential votes are the folks that are going to vote blue but only if they're excited to vote or it looks like they can vote for a winner, voting is the cool thing, etc.
The GOP is typically different in that most people don't like their policies so it's most about getting dem voters to stay home and making it hard enough to vote that the just-enthusiastic-enough-to-vote-this-time but usually doesn't voter turns into the "aw fuck it, maybe at the mid-terms" non-voter.
But while I'm sure that's true to some extent I don't know if it's as true as it used to be since now all young men listen to Joe-obvious-dumb-ass-dip-shit Rogan. He knows fuck-all about lifting too you dumb assholes.*
Sorry I got worked up. But look at all the time you spent reading that where you were NOT obsessively refreshing results. Yeah I took a couple breaks to check too.
*This one bugs me because I'm a powerlifter but I'm in my 40's and started later in life so I really have to work at it. If those young assholes listened to someone that knew what the fuck they were talking about, they'd get so much stronger so much faster with WAY less injury. I wouldn't be able to make that kind of progress if I were on steroids. Youth has never been more wasted on the young.
posted by VTX at 8:06 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Guys, I will pay any price: can anyone help me figure out how to watch the Jon Stewart election special live from my Roku? It is happening right now. I need this.
posted by corb at 8:07 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by corb at 8:07 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
is there any hope left?
posted by prefpara at 8:08 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 8:08 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I can’t do another four years of Trump. I simply can’t. I know this isn’t adding anything to the conversation but it’s all I can feel right now.
posted by turbowombat at 8:09 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]
posted by turbowombat at 8:09 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]
Voters in North America can’t get excited about women because they hate us. As soon as Harris was put forward, I thought, “maybe I’ll be surprised” but mostly “nope”. Sick and sad to be right (I think, probably).
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:10 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:10 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
Trump leads GA by only about 130,000 votes right now and Dem polling places had bomb threats that extended the voting hours. And people are also still in line in other Dem places in GA, predicted to be there three hours past the time polls closed.
It's not over yet, y'all.
posted by cooker girl at 8:10 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
It's not over yet, y'all.
posted by cooker girl at 8:10 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
"Guys, I will pay any price: can anyone help me figure out how to watch the Jon Stewart election special live from my Roku?"
Per their website, you have to sign up for Paramount Plus on your Roku and then you can watch it.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:10 PM on November 5
Per their website, you have to sign up for Paramount Plus on your Roku and then you can watch it.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:10 PM on November 5
Basically, what has happened is that Harris has lost all the states she was expected to lose. All right, North Carolina and Georgia might have flipped.
But if she wins the states where she has been a little ahead in the polls she will win. But she has to win all of them.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:11 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
But if she wins the states where she has been a little ahead in the polls she will win. But she has to win all of them.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:11 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
NBC reporting this'll go on for a while, so I'm turning in. Thanks to all of you for the thread & the updates -- couldn't imagine this day without you.
posted by mochapickle at 8:11 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 8:11 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
That is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona and the vote from Nebraska.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:12 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:12 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
it's gonna be Election Week again and with no Destiel bombshell to distract us :(
posted by Jacqueline at 8:13 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 8:13 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Doing anything but voting for the least-bad option in the general election helps the worse option win.
I hope the democrats made the right calculation by maligning progressives.
posted by iamck at 8:13 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I hope the democrats made the right calculation by maligning progressives.
posted by iamck at 8:13 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Per the link posted, it won't be on Paramount+ until tomorrow.
posted by Celatone at 8:14 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Celatone at 8:14 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Who the fuck is Dan Osborn and will he play with the dems to keep the Senate out of GOP hands
posted by Slackermagee at 8:15 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Slackermagee at 8:15 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
"In addition to Comedy Central, it will also be broadcast live on sister channels MTV, Paramount Network, CMT, TV Land, Pop and Logo."
posted by Celatone at 8:15 PM on November 5
posted by Celatone at 8:15 PM on November 5
So Kamala has to win 6 coin flips in a row? Yeah, odds aren't swell.
posted by Philipschall at 8:16 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Philipschall at 8:16 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I know this is freaking a lot of us out but as a big fan of election night and election night threads I'm grateful to have this.
posted by vrakatar at 8:16 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 8:16 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Those maligned progressive do have SOME say in who they vote for too.
posted by VTX at 8:16 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by VTX at 8:16 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I think Harris takes PA. Looking at rough amounts of votes left, Trump is looking at another 100K from all PA counties. Flipadelphia is going to dunk 175k, if the current ratio holds, for Harris. Not counting any other county totals trickling in
posted by Slackermagee at 8:17 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 8:17 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Harris still has a good chance if the same day voting runs more for her than expected. It seems that the late open polls are with Harris voters.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:17 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:17 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Damn, this a hard night...
posted by Windopaene at 8:19 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 8:19 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
I have Paramount Plus, but they won’t show until tomorrow. How does one even normal TV anymore. I literally don’t know how to channel anymore.
posted by corb at 8:19 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by corb at 8:19 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Fuck. North Carolina.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 8:20 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 8:20 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Sad news about Senator Sherrod Brown's race.
I remember protesting with him during one of Dubya's visits to Ohio. I think it was shortly after I was gerrymandered out of his house district, and I had moved out of Ohio before having a chance to vote for him in the senate.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:20 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I remember protesting with him during one of Dubya's visits to Ohio. I think it was shortly after I was gerrymandered out of his house district, and I had moved out of Ohio before having a chance to vote for him in the senate.
posted by audi alteram partem at 8:20 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
"I have Parampunt Plus, but they won’t show until tomorrow. How does one even normal TV anymore. I literally don’t know how to channel anymore."
Maybe YouTube TV? It's $73/month so it's like a cable TV package, I guess? You could do the free offer and then cancel.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:21 PM on November 5
Maybe YouTube TV? It's $73/month so it's like a cable TV package, I guess? You could do the free offer and then cancel.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:21 PM on November 5
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
posted by iamck at 8:21 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by iamck at 8:21 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
I recognize this isn’t the most important problem but right now Jon Stewart seems like a comforting safety blanket and by god he got me through other awful elections he can get me through this one.
posted by corb at 8:21 PM on November 5
posted by corb at 8:21 PM on November 5
> How does one even normal TV anymore
One gets an antenna and plus it in to the TV and that's how one watches Kraken games. For extra retro vibes, one makes one of one's children hold the antenna up by the window.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:22 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
One gets an antenna and plus it in to the TV and that's how one watches Kraken games. For extra retro vibes, one makes one of one's children hold the antenna up by the window.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:22 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Mannion has won New York-22. That's a House pickup for Democrats.
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 8:22 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
I didn't know that one person alone controlled the outcome in a 50-state election. Responsibility doesn't exist?. That's news to me.
posted by ichomp at 8:25 PM on November 5 [27 favorites]
I didn't know that one person alone controlled the outcome in a 50-state election. Responsibility doesn't exist?. That's news to me.
posted by ichomp at 8:25 PM on November 5 [27 favorites]
My SO has been insistent since Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive nominee that Trump will win. Her reasoning was and still is based on her belief that misogyny will win every time.
Still, I'm not anywhere near ready to call it given the present numbers. I think there's still a good chance of Harris taking it with a PA/MI/AZ trifecta. What's really making it so close, if exit polls are to be believed, is the much reduced support from union households. If Harris got the same vote share there that Biden got, she'd have pretty comfortable margins in PA/MI/WI and we'd all be breathing a lot easier.
posted by wierdo at 8:27 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Still, I'm not anywhere near ready to call it given the present numbers. I think there's still a good chance of Harris taking it with a PA/MI/AZ trifecta. What's really making it so close, if exit polls are to be believed, is the much reduced support from union households. If Harris got the same vote share there that Biden got, she'd have pretty comfortable margins in PA/MI/WI and we'd all be breathing a lot easier.
posted by wierdo at 8:27 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
I have YouTube TV, I just looked and it says Comedy Central will be airing it at 11pm here in California.
posted by Ellen Alleyne at 8:29 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Ellen Alleyne at 8:29 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
How does one even normal TV anymore. I literally don’t know how to channel anymore.
Sign up for the YouTube TV trial. Cancel it when you've had enough election cable. It's on Comedy Central.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:29 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Sign up for the YouTube TV trial. Cancel it when you've had enough election cable. It's on Comedy Central.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:29 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
This is tough, y’all. My opinion is that regardless of who wins, 5e big stories are:
1) the economy - people feel it’s worse than under Trump, which is arguably true in some ways, and they blame Biden instead of COVID, supply chain, all that
2) the information environment- more and more people are getting their info from bad sources and no one’s doing anything to reign in the technofeudalism of the social media firms
3) immigration system is a mess and see #2.
4) a sprinkling of sexism and racism.
The Harris campaign and the zillion volunteers crushed it in an absurdly compressed 90 days. Gaza is a big deal to me, but I’m not convinced it is overall compared to the people above. I don’t buy the narrative that the Dems have somehow screwed up or dropped the ball. We live in a gerrymandered country that’s self- selecting to make itself dumber every year.
Also Sherrod Brown losing means the Rs almost certainly have the Senate, but the House is still in play. Can still end up with Harris + dem House. Knock wood .
posted by caviar2d2 at 8:29 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
1) the economy - people feel it’s worse than under Trump, which is arguably true in some ways, and they blame Biden instead of COVID, supply chain, all that
2) the information environment- more and more people are getting their info from bad sources and no one’s doing anything to reign in the technofeudalism of the social media firms
3) immigration system is a mess and see #2.
4) a sprinkling of sexism and racism.
The Harris campaign and the zillion volunteers crushed it in an absurdly compressed 90 days. Gaza is a big deal to me, but I’m not convinced it is overall compared to the people above. I don’t buy the narrative that the Dems have somehow screwed up or dropped the ball. We live in a gerrymandered country that’s self- selecting to make itself dumber every year.
Also Sherrod Brown losing means the Rs almost certainly have the Senate, but the House is still in play. Can still end up with Harris + dem House. Knock wood .
posted by caviar2d2 at 8:29 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
MN is finally showing Harris after Twin Cities votes coming in.
posted by zeikka at 8:31 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by zeikka at 8:31 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
No, if Harris loses, it's on the voters, because the decision is down to the voters.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:32 PM on November 5 [75 favorites]
No, if Harris loses, it's on the voters, because the decision is down to the voters.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:32 PM on November 5 [75 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
Reminder? Hard disagree.
posted by kybix at 8:32 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Reminder? Hard disagree.
posted by kybix at 8:32 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
I can't watch this anymore. Praying I wake up in an alternate timeline where it was a blowout.
posted by lock robster at 8:34 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 8:34 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
This comes from some fantasy world where the opponent is approximately comparable and basically sane and competent.
In the world we live in this is a woeful sentiment.
posted by os tuberoes at 8:35 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
This comes from some fantasy world where the opponent is approximately comparable and basically sane and competent.
In the world we live in this is a woeful sentiment.
posted by os tuberoes at 8:35 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
MN is finally showing Harris after Twin Cities votes coming in.
Yeah. As a Minnesotan, I "knew" that would happen but I still couldn't shake the feeling that I was just telling myself that. Which my mind then obviously extended to the whole election.
Rolled back the spiral a bit for me there Minnesota (but man, boo hiss MN Trump voters).
posted by VTX at 8:35 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Yeah. As a Minnesotan, I "knew" that would happen but I still couldn't shake the feeling that I was just telling myself that. Which my mind then obviously extended to the whole election.
Rolled back the spiral a bit for me there Minnesota (but man, boo hiss MN Trump voters).
posted by VTX at 8:35 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Just a reminder, if Kamala Harris loses this, it’s squarely on her.
The hell are you talking about? She ran as good a campaign as could be run. If she loses, it’s because half the country decided a misogynist, completely unethical felon who has committed espionage and given away some of our most closely guarded secrets, someone who plans to use the military on political enemies, someone who is planning to crash the economy, someone who is going to commit atrocities against immigrants (including those here legally,) who is going to set back women’s rights 50 years, who is going to put a nut job in charge of the FDA, who is going to let Elon Musk slash the government, who is going to destroy Social Security and Medicare… half the country decided they were OK with that and in fact actively wants that. If that’s he case there wasn’t a fucking thing she could do.
posted by azpenguin at 8:35 PM on November 5 [89 favorites]
The hell are you talking about? She ran as good a campaign as could be run. If she loses, it’s because half the country decided a misogynist, completely unethical felon who has committed espionage and given away some of our most closely guarded secrets, someone who plans to use the military on political enemies, someone who is planning to crash the economy, someone who is going to commit atrocities against immigrants (including those here legally,) who is going to set back women’s rights 50 years, who is going to put a nut job in charge of the FDA, who is going to let Elon Musk slash the government, who is going to destroy Social Security and Medicare… half the country decided they were OK with that and in fact actively wants that. If that’s he case there wasn’t a fucking thing she could do.
posted by azpenguin at 8:35 PM on November 5 [89 favorites]
Please don't let the tens of millions of crazy motherfuckers that are somehow completely okay with another Trump presidency off the hook.
posted by notoriety public at 8:35 PM on November 5 [43 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 8:35 PM on November 5 [43 favorites]
This is not Harris' fault at all. She ran a near perfect campaign.
It's our fault as citizens.
posted by Glibpaxman at 8:36 PM on November 5 [30 favorites]
It's our fault as citizens.
posted by Glibpaxman at 8:36 PM on November 5 [30 favorites]
in unrelated news, Netanyahu fires Gallant.
timing.
posted by clavdivs at 8:36 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
timing.
posted by clavdivs at 8:36 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
near perfect campaigns win
posted by dis_integration at 8:37 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 8:37 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
One gets an antenna and plus it in to the TV ...
That used to work everywhere. With analog TV at the edges you'd get unstable noisy pictures and good sound, and now you get nothing ever. Digital didn't have to be designed to give perfect pictures or nothing: I think it was technically possible to make a standard that gracefully fell off, but they didn't. So now over-the-air TV doesn't exist in quite a lot of the US.
My plan for the Trump win is to radically tune out. I will never hear "the president tweeted" again.
posted by netowl at 8:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
That used to work everywhere. With analog TV at the edges you'd get unstable noisy pictures and good sound, and now you get nothing ever. Digital didn't have to be designed to give perfect pictures or nothing: I think it was technically possible to make a standard that gracefully fell off, but they didn't. So now over-the-air TV doesn't exist in quite a lot of the US.
My plan for the Trump win is to radically tune out. I will never hear "the president tweeted" again.
posted by netowl at 8:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Can someone tell me what they think would have happened, negatively, if Harris had reached out to the left? Just acknowledged them in some small way, besides running a ridiculous ad that had Jill Stein's face morphing into Donald Trump's? Probably more people knew Stein was running from seeing that ad than whatever ads Stein ran, if there were any (I have not seen one). I don't think anyone expected her to be like, "And fuck Netanyahu!!!" or anything, but she could have just. I don't know. Just some small acknowledgment of the concerns that kept these people from supporting her, who I believe wanted to support her. What would have happened? Would liberals have stayed home?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:39 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:39 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
I'm calling it a night y'all. Going to leave on this thought: in 2020 the morning after election day I started running a spreadsheet with the number of votes Biden would require to win from those still uncounted, and I posted another pessimistic comment on that thread later that day based on the way the numbers were looking at that time.
I'm hoping that tomorrow I'll either wake up and see that things have gone Harris' way over night, or that its still up in the air, and maybe I'll start doing some calculations like back in 2020.
Good luck to you all tonight. See you to celebrate or commiserate tomorrow.
posted by Reverend John at 8:41 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
I'm hoping that tomorrow I'll either wake up and see that things have gone Harris' way over night, or that its still up in the air, and maybe I'll start doing some calculations like back in 2020.
Good luck to you all tonight. See you to celebrate or commiserate tomorrow.
posted by Reverend John at 8:41 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
North Carolina falls? Sigh.
I know we’re all looking for blame and grasping at straws. I just think at its core this country is deeply misogynistic and racist, and choosing between that and a patriarchal white man the latter will likely win out. Even if they are literally the worst and most flawed person possible.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:42 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
I know we’re all looking for blame and grasping at straws. I just think at its core this country is deeply misogynistic and racist, and choosing between that and a patriarchal white man the latter will likely win out. Even if they are literally the worst and most flawed person possible.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:42 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
FML, tomorrow I guess I'll be asking all the Trump voters on my socials to raise their hands so I can never, ever talk to them again. I can't have that kind of hate in my life.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:43 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by wenestvedt at 8:43 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Given the states called already, which groupings does Harris need to win?
posted by St. Peepsburg at 8:43 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by St. Peepsburg at 8:43 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
kfb, i'm sorry but Harris ran a near perfect campaign and by near perfect I mean solidly in step with Biden when it comes to Gaza
Which is near perfect
And has zero bearing on the election results
And this is the voters' fault
posted by ginger.beef at 8:44 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Which is near perfect
And has zero bearing on the election results
And this is the voters' fault
posted by ginger.beef at 8:44 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
In Washington State, Maria Cantwell has beaten Dr Raul Garcia, a man who legally changed his first name to "Dr" so he would show up that way on the ballot.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
When asked if people were better off now than four years ago, she didn't mention that four years ago we were putting bodies in freezer trucks because the morgues were full. She didn't mention that we had lost millions of jobs. She never reminded people of how awful it was four years ago, in 2020, and neither did anyone else on the Democratic side, which frustrated me to no end. So, no, I personally don't think Kamala Harris ran a "near perfect" campaign. That said, I think a combination of misogyny, prices being high, and a relentless anti-Democratic media had more to do with her loss than her campaign messaging.
But man, how hard would it have been to mention how bad it was four years ago...
posted by dirigibleman at 8:44 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
But man, how hard would it have been to mention how bad it was four years ago...
posted by dirigibleman at 8:44 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
(Are we doing elections other than presidential here?)
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:44 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
If Trump wins, I think it will be a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
I feel like I might as well give in for the night, but I am too keyed up to sleep.
posted by NotLost at 8:45 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I feel like I might as well give in for the night, but I am too keyed up to sleep.
posted by NotLost at 8:45 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
My biggest problem with NC being a headliner right now is that it was on 538 a 59-41 Trump state casted as a swing. Anecdotally, I know NC as a state where more conservative folks moved to from Michigan. Shocker all around
posted by JoeXIII007 at 8:46 PM on November 5
posted by JoeXIII007 at 8:46 PM on November 5
"Given the states called already, which ones does Harris need to win?"
All of the remaining swing states except Nevada. If she loses another swing state with 8+ electoral votes, she's done.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:46 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
All of the remaining swing states except Nevada. If she loses another swing state with 8+ electoral votes, she's done.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:46 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
(Are we doing elections other than presidential here?)
Yes.
posted by NotLost at 8:47 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Yes.
posted by NotLost at 8:47 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
If Trump wins, I think it will be a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
Love the optimism that there will be any other major party ticket ever again if Trump wins! This is what I'm talking about, go team!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:47 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Love the optimism that there will be any other major party ticket ever again if Trump wins! This is what I'm talking about, go team!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:47 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Harris underperformed Dem Senators in every swing state.
posted by hermanubis at 8:47 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by hermanubis at 8:47 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
270toWin is updating their projections as states are called and votes are partially counted, so it's a good way to keep an eye on what's still possible:
https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/
posted by Jacqueline at 8:48 PM on November 5
https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/
posted by Jacqueline at 8:48 PM on November 5
(Are we doing elections other than presidential here?)
Yes! Especially if it's good news.
I think that if you ran for some small office on a patriotic whim and win, you with the thread and become king of metafilter.
posted by VTX at 8:49 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Yes! Especially if it's good news.
I think that if you ran for some small office on a patriotic whim and win, you with the thread and become king of metafilter.
posted by VTX at 8:49 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
so happy to see that caving to republicans' anti-trans bigotry helped allred and brown win their senate races
oh. they didn't? i see...
posted by i used to be someone else at 8:50 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
oh. they didn't? i see...
posted by i used to be someone else at 8:50 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Politico swing state buttons. Flip switches on swing states and see how it changes the result.
posted by ryanrs at 8:50 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 8:50 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
If Trump wins, I think it will be a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
Yep, I thought this after Hillary, modulo exceptional circumstances. Now that we've had exceptional circumstances with what appears to be the same outcome, I doubt any of us see it in again in our lifetimes.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 8:51 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Yep, I thought this after Hillary, modulo exceptional circumstances. Now that we've had exceptional circumstances with what appears to be the same outcome, I doubt any of us see it in again in our lifetimes.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 8:51 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
a very long time before another woman leads a major party ticket.
That's a strange way to say never.
I mean that literally.
posted by aramaic at 8:51 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
That's a strange way to say never.
I mean that literally.
posted by aramaic at 8:51 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Love the optimism that there will be any other major party ticket ever again if Trump wins!
Even Putin, who is effectively about as close to absolute dictator as you can get in a country as big as Russia, is unwilling to abandon the trappings of legitimacy. Of course we're going to have elections, just like Russia did in March.
posted by tclark at 8:51 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Even Putin, who is effectively about as close to absolute dictator as you can get in a country as big as Russia, is unwilling to abandon the trappings of legitimacy. Of course we're going to have elections, just like Russia did in March.
posted by tclark at 8:51 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
My heart is breaking for Ukraine. They’re going to be fed to the dogs.
posted by argybarg at 8:53 PM on November 5 [47 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 8:53 PM on November 5 [47 favorites]
My heart is breaking for Ukraine. They’re going to be fed to the dogs.
Honey, the whole fucking world is getting fed to the dogs now.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:55 PM on November 5 [52 favorites]
Honey, the whole fucking world is getting fed to the dogs now.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:55 PM on November 5 [52 favorites]
Deep red Missouri votes to repeal near-total abortion ban and codify abortion until viability into the state constitution.
56.4% voted trump over kamala, 53.9% voted to overturn abortion ban
posted by Iax at 8:55 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
56.4% voted trump over kamala, 53.9% voted to overturn abortion ban
posted by Iax at 8:55 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
"we bought this ad to give you 30 seconds of silence. yep, just silence."
-calm
posted by clavdivs at 8:56 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
-calm
posted by clavdivs at 8:56 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
At least there’s some good down-ballot news here in Seattle. Right-wing hedge fund millionaire Brian Heywood funded statewide initiatives to repeal our carbon tax and capital gains tax. Both of those initiatives have been defeated. (Results have not yet been called for two other Heywood-sponsored initiatives that were also on the ballot.)
Democrat Bob Ferguson won the WA governor's race, and progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck looks to have a decent lead over appointed incumbent Tanya Woo in the Seattle City Council race. And the Seattle transportation levy should pass.
posted by mbrubeck at 8:56 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Democrat Bob Ferguson won the WA governor's race, and progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck looks to have a decent lead over appointed incumbent Tanya Woo in the Seattle City Council race. And the Seattle transportation levy should pass.
posted by mbrubeck at 8:56 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Yes. But the most direct and comprehensive and literal slaughter will be of the Ukrainian people.
posted by argybarg at 8:57 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 8:57 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I can’t believe this is really happening.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:58 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:58 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
I'm numb and feeling a mix of optimism and depression.
As a Deaf person who has stage 4 cancer and a real possibility of losing my job if Trump is confirmed/voted in, I just don't know what to say. How can someone who says such awful and cruel things, threaten people, even with death, and be so cruel, win (or at least come close to)? If he wins, this can be a really bad impact on my life. Treatments, job-searching (already super hard for Deaf people), and facing cruelty if people choose to be openly cruel because of my appearance.
I just don't get it. This could affect my life in a very awful way. The worst feeling is, I feel like nobody really cares. It seems like cruelty and hate is winning now, and we have majorly regressed since the 2000s. Even Bush was better than this. I am trying to understand what happened to the world, to people.
With that said, I'm hoping we'll still get the swing states we need to win this. Even so, there's a lot of work and fixing that needs to be done in America, a lot of soul-searching and deprogramming.
My heart is broken. I might or might not wake up to good news tomorrow, but as someone who works hard bettering myself everyday and being kind despite the world we live in, and is fighting cancer, this is really deep and sad and awful/depressing to see. I don't want to be in a world that is filled with hate and evil. I will continue to fight and do what I can to live and beat my cancer if possible, but I'm just tired. I'm sad. I'm disappointed.
Pardon the messy rant, but I had to let it out.
posted by dubious_dude at 8:58 PM on November 5 [76 favorites]
As a Deaf person who has stage 4 cancer and a real possibility of losing my job if Trump is confirmed/voted in, I just don't know what to say. How can someone who says such awful and cruel things, threaten people, even with death, and be so cruel, win (or at least come close to)? If he wins, this can be a really bad impact on my life. Treatments, job-searching (already super hard for Deaf people), and facing cruelty if people choose to be openly cruel because of my appearance.
I just don't get it. This could affect my life in a very awful way. The worst feeling is, I feel like nobody really cares. It seems like cruelty and hate is winning now, and we have majorly regressed since the 2000s. Even Bush was better than this. I am trying to understand what happened to the world, to people.
With that said, I'm hoping we'll still get the swing states we need to win this. Even so, there's a lot of work and fixing that needs to be done in America, a lot of soul-searching and deprogramming.
My heart is broken. I might or might not wake up to good news tomorrow, but as someone who works hard bettering myself everyday and being kind despite the world we live in, and is fighting cancer, this is really deep and sad and awful/depressing to see. I don't want to be in a world that is filled with hate and evil. I will continue to fight and do what I can to live and beat my cancer if possible, but I'm just tired. I'm sad. I'm disappointed.
Pardon the messy rant, but I had to let it out.
posted by dubious_dude at 8:58 PM on November 5 [76 favorites]
Ok, just woke up here in the Netherlands.... What the hell are you doing USA ? You're not seriously voting for that knucklehead again ?
posted by Pendragon at 8:58 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 8:58 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Can someone tell me what they think would have happened, negatively, if Harris had reached out to the left?
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
posted by azpenguin at 8:58 PM on November 5 [33 favorites]
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
posted by azpenguin at 8:58 PM on November 5 [33 favorites]
So Kamala has to win 6 coin flips in a row? Yeah, odds aren't swell.
It's not really 6 individual coin flips though is it? If we find out that one of the coins is weighted 53% for Harris, then it's more likely the rest are weighted that way too.
But it's late and I'm not a stats nerd and I'm about out of nerd for today regardless.
posted by VTX at 8:58 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
It's not really 6 individual coin flips though is it? If we find out that one of the coins is weighted 53% for Harris, then it's more likely the rest are weighted that way too.
But it's late and I'm not a stats nerd and I'm about out of nerd for today regardless.
posted by VTX at 8:58 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
"At least there’s some good down-ballot news here in Seattle."
My husband is new to Seattle and Washington state and found the initiatives confusing, so I got to introduce him to the joy that is The Stranger's election guide. I did a dramatic reading and my husband said he didn't know that newspaper endorsements could have that many swears in them.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:59 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
My husband is new to Seattle and Washington state and found the initiatives confusing, so I got to introduce him to the joy that is The Stranger's election guide. I did a dramatic reading and my husband said he didn't know that newspaper endorsements could have that many swears in them.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:59 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Looks a lot like cops are getting their Licenses to Kill back. Be careful out there.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:00 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:00 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I think we can pull this off, but still feeing sick to my stomach that it is even close.
posted by ichomp at 9:01 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:01 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:05 PM on November 5
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:05 PM on November 5
I don't think it's being pulled off, and I don't think anyone should blame Palestinian affinity groups for the loss.
posted by postagepaid at 9:06 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by postagepaid at 9:06 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
White penises have always fared well.
posted by phunniemee at 9:07 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
White penises have always fared well.
posted by phunniemee at 9:07 PM on November 5 [21 favorites]
I think a real question is whether Harris is going to give up or not if things go badly. Will she fight it out in places where things look weird or where there was funny business, or wait for absentee ballots, which do tend to be strongly Democratic, to come in?
posted by corb at 9:08 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by corb at 9:08 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Ceasefire polled well. Did the Cheney family?
There was plenty of room to run to Biden's left on Gaza and gain votes. Too early to tell what really happened, but in addition to being immoral and unjust, the general Democratic position on the genocide was not prudent. Plenty of people on here and elsewhere pointed that out. Whatever happens, appealing to moderate Republicans did not work.
posted by Hume at 9:08 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
There was plenty of room to run to Biden's left on Gaza and gain votes. Too early to tell what really happened, but in addition to being immoral and unjust, the general Democratic position on the genocide was not prudent. Plenty of people on here and elsewhere pointed that out. Whatever happens, appealing to moderate Republicans did not work.
posted by Hume at 9:08 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted. Absolutely enough with the interpersonal stuff. This is not a time for ‘settling scores’. Maybe let’s try to leave each other relatively intact, looks like we may need each other enough in the time ahead.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:08 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:08 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
Sure... I have a bridge to sell...
posted by Pendragon at 9:08 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Sure... I have a bridge to sell...
posted by Pendragon at 9:08 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Colorado defeated jungle primaries, which is so far the only good news I've seen tonight. Courage.
posted by cyndigo at 9:10 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by cyndigo at 9:10 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
The posters here sure are quick to blame people for not voting a women, especially the sexism of the hispanic voters. But look at Mexico, they just elected a woman president. Maybe USA should try running one that doesn't suck and more people actually believe in?
posted by Iax at 9:10 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by Iax at 9:10 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Joe Biden spells Paul Bunyan if you rearrange the letters
and change some letters
think on that
posted by ginger.beef at 9:11 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
and change some letters
think on that
posted by ginger.beef at 9:11 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
I don’t think Gaza was salient to any except a small slice of voters.
It seems Harris lost ground with non-white voters. That’s a sobering thought. I think sexism won out here.
posted by argybarg at 9:11 PM on November 5 [29 favorites]
It seems Harris lost ground with non-white voters. That’s a sobering thought. I think sexism won out here.
posted by argybarg at 9:11 PM on November 5 [29 favorites]
i'm sorry but Harris ran a near perfect campaign
Nah, Harris ran the campaign that every Democratic candidate has run since the party got high on its own supply under Clinton. The pattern is to abjure any progressive agenda in favor of small technocratic changes which pose little threat to the status quo while banking on the fact that Republicans will be so shitty that it will alienate enough people to secure a Dem win. It's an essentially static, small C conservative political position which promises that nothing will change in any major way, but that small improvements will be made on the margins.
That works when people feel like the world is generally doing OK, which both increases favor towards the status quo and blunts oppositional desire for change. In the face of a cultish, non-reality based campaign by Republican machine which thrives on portraying the world in crisis though? Calling the Democratic Party's tactics insipid is underselling it.
Harris spent her few months as the candidate running the above campaign of small changes to the status quo with a sprinkling of pointing out how much of a threat Trump is to our democracy and reiterating that he is responsible for the loss of abortion rights. The problem is that large parts of the electorate are not, and have never been, sold on Trump being an existential threat to the USA. After all, we made it through one term right? Memories of political chaos, economic collapse, and a million COVID deaths fade away so quickly.
Abortion rights are another non-starter, at least the way the Dems have run the campaign. It is a truth that everyone thinks their abortion is the only moral one, but the more important point is that no one thinks they are going to need an abortion. Abortions happen to "other people," so hammering home that point without explicitly and loudly tying it to the larger GOP strategy of rolling back rights for women is a losing strategy.
But really, the problem the Harris campaign had is the problem that the Democratic party has in general: they have no ideas and what ideas they have they shunt off to the side in embarrassment. The Dem party learned that they can win elections by tacking to the right to basically be a less insane version of the GOP, but in doing so they ceded political inertia to the GOP. The American Left has an amazing platform of winning ideas, but the Democratic party is committed to a strategy of trying to contort itself to appeal to some idealized Rust Belt ex-steel mill worker who says he's independent, but hasn't voted D since 1992.
The end result is a party that is entirely reactive. I think it was Karl Rove who, during Dubya's reign, remarked that the GOP was in the reality-making business, acknowledging that political parties can create the field in which they play. Rove also emphasized attack the opponent on their strengths. The GOP has, for decades, been the party setting the agenda for US politics. That is not going to change until the Democrats stop playing defense and start creating a reality more favorable to them. Harris tacking to an imaginary and no longer extant middle is not going to change that equation.
If this sounds dirge-like for Harris, it's because I am having flashbacks to 2016. See you all in 2024.
posted by Panjandrum at 9:12 PM on November 5 [71 favorites]
Nah, Harris ran the campaign that every Democratic candidate has run since the party got high on its own supply under Clinton. The pattern is to abjure any progressive agenda in favor of small technocratic changes which pose little threat to the status quo while banking on the fact that Republicans will be so shitty that it will alienate enough people to secure a Dem win. It's an essentially static, small C conservative political position which promises that nothing will change in any major way, but that small improvements will be made on the margins.
That works when people feel like the world is generally doing OK, which both increases favor towards the status quo and blunts oppositional desire for change. In the face of a cultish, non-reality based campaign by Republican machine which thrives on portraying the world in crisis though? Calling the Democratic Party's tactics insipid is underselling it.
Harris spent her few months as the candidate running the above campaign of small changes to the status quo with a sprinkling of pointing out how much of a threat Trump is to our democracy and reiterating that he is responsible for the loss of abortion rights. The problem is that large parts of the electorate are not, and have never been, sold on Trump being an existential threat to the USA. After all, we made it through one term right? Memories of political chaos, economic collapse, and a million COVID deaths fade away so quickly.
Abortion rights are another non-starter, at least the way the Dems have run the campaign. It is a truth that everyone thinks their abortion is the only moral one, but the more important point is that no one thinks they are going to need an abortion. Abortions happen to "other people," so hammering home that point without explicitly and loudly tying it to the larger GOP strategy of rolling back rights for women is a losing strategy.
But really, the problem the Harris campaign had is the problem that the Democratic party has in general: they have no ideas and what ideas they have they shunt off to the side in embarrassment. The Dem party learned that they can win elections by tacking to the right to basically be a less insane version of the GOP, but in doing so they ceded political inertia to the GOP. The American Left has an amazing platform of winning ideas, but the Democratic party is committed to a strategy of trying to contort itself to appeal to some idealized Rust Belt ex-steel mill worker who says he's independent, but hasn't voted D since 1992.
The end result is a party that is entirely reactive. I think it was Karl Rove who, during Dubya's reign, remarked that the GOP was in the reality-making business, acknowledging that political parties can create the field in which they play. Rove also emphasized attack the opponent on their strengths. The GOP has, for decades, been the party setting the agenda for US politics. That is not going to change until the Democrats stop playing defense and start creating a reality more favorable to them. Harris tacking to an imaginary and no longer extant middle is not going to change that equation.
If this sounds dirge-like for Harris, it's because I am having flashbacks to 2016. See you all in 2024.
posted by Panjandrum at 9:12 PM on November 5 [71 favorites]
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
I mean, I'm gonna be real. She didn't try real hard. Honestly, just "vote for me OR go fuck yourself" would have been a better look than "vote for me AND go fuck yourself." She acknowledged that she needed those votes, and then...said you were an asshole if you didn't vote for her. No concessions, no attempt to find common ground -- of which, frankly, there is a hell of a lot.
I don't know, right now, if she will win or lose. But I am saying this vote scolding shit straight up does not work. Again, no one has to like that, no one has to change the desire they have in their heart to punch a hippie for whatever reason, but just finally really understand that this scolding approach obviously does not work, no matter how good it feels to scold people! And when you do things that do not work, you do not win elections.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:12 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
I mean, I'm gonna be real. She didn't try real hard. Honestly, just "vote for me OR go fuck yourself" would have been a better look than "vote for me AND go fuck yourself." She acknowledged that she needed those votes, and then...said you were an asshole if you didn't vote for her. No concessions, no attempt to find common ground -- of which, frankly, there is a hell of a lot.
I don't know, right now, if she will win or lose. But I am saying this vote scolding shit straight up does not work. Again, no one has to like that, no one has to change the desire they have in their heart to punch a hippie for whatever reason, but just finally really understand that this scolding approach obviously does not work, no matter how good it feels to scold people! And when you do things that do not work, you do not win elections.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:12 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Nothing would have been good enough for the "principled leftists."
Y'know, I'm old enough to remember when the "principled leftists" grudgingly allowed themselves to get a little hopeful when the Dems finally acted like they wanted to win the election and dropped Biden. Lots of folks who wouldn't have been caught dead saying anything positive about her in 2020 adding coconut emojis to their display names; grudging, bewildered optimism all around. Then of course the Harris campaign went out its way to burn all that goodwill and then some.
Literally all she had to do was denounce an ongoing genocide. The bar was on the floor. But yeah, go ahead and blame the voters instead of the person who didn't give them something to vote for.
posted by fifthrider at 9:12 PM on November 5 [27 favorites]
Y'know, I'm old enough to remember when the "principled leftists" grudgingly allowed themselves to get a little hopeful when the Dems finally acted like they wanted to win the election and dropped Biden. Lots of folks who wouldn't have been caught dead saying anything positive about her in 2020 adding coconut emojis to their display names; grudging, bewildered optimism all around. Then of course the Harris campaign went out its way to burn all that goodwill and then some.
Literally all she had to do was denounce an ongoing genocide. The bar was on the floor. But yeah, go ahead and blame the voters instead of the person who didn't give them something to vote for.
posted by fifthrider at 9:12 PM on November 5 [27 favorites]
I don’t think Gaza was salient to any except a small slice of voters.
How big a slice of voters did Biden win by in 2020?
posted by Iax at 9:12 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Joe Biden would have done better than this
Not after that debate performance. Still such a bummer.
posted by getawaysticks at 9:12 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
Not after that debate performance. Still such a bummer.
posted by getawaysticks at 9:12 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
dubious_dude, of all the comments in this thread, yours is by far my favorite. Thank you for expressing it so eloquently, and I hope that you know you are not alone in these feelings. I don't share your life experience, but it speaks deeply to me. Please accept the virtual hug from this internet stranger.
posted by splitpeasoup at 9:13 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
posted by splitpeasoup at 9:13 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
I’m sitting in a high school gym waiting for results. I’ve worked with these candidates for the last few months, they’re so good, but it’s going to be close. I will be devastated if Kamala Harris loses the Electoral College and the election. But it will be personal if my local candidates don’t prevail. The poll staff are excellent, turnout was enormous, but …
posted by theora55 at 9:15 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by theora55 at 9:15 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I'm going to put my wife in bed, and maybe tap out. I'm hopeful but if I tap out and wake up tomorrow to a dystopian nightmare, I'll fight. Not with guns or weapons, with action and kindness and empathic passive resistance.
posted by vrakatar at 9:16 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 9:16 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
Arizona looks very positive for Harris since almost all of the remaining votes are in Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tucson).
Michigan looks okayish due so much still outstanding in Wayne County and how much her margins have trended.
Wisconsin looks less positive but a win in Arizona is an effective trade for Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania will really come down to Philly same day and remaining mail votes.
Nevada is largely pointless unfortunately (or maybe fortunately)
Ultimately I think the key driver was economic hardships and declining standards of living in large areas of the US. That is one of the key reasons why there seems to be such a massive gender gap in terms of voting preference and why there is some indication of a late trend among Gen-Z voters.
Empty promises and lots of scapegoating of minorities/women is apparently a compelling formula for a lot of Americans and until there is a way to de-radicalize gen x, millenial and I guess Gen-Z male voters the Republican party will continue to try to use it to drive voters to the polls.
posted by vuron at 9:17 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Michigan looks okayish due so much still outstanding in Wayne County and how much her margins have trended.
Wisconsin looks less positive but a win in Arizona is an effective trade for Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania will really come down to Philly same day and remaining mail votes.
Nevada is largely pointless unfortunately (or maybe fortunately)
Ultimately I think the key driver was economic hardships and declining standards of living in large areas of the US. That is one of the key reasons why there seems to be such a massive gender gap in terms of voting preference and why there is some indication of a late trend among Gen-Z voters.
Empty promises and lots of scapegoating of minorities/women is apparently a compelling formula for a lot of Americans and until there is a way to de-radicalize gen x, millenial and I guess Gen-Z male voters the Republican party will continue to try to use it to drive voters to the polls.
posted by vuron at 9:17 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
I don't think we're going to know tonight. It's gonna come down to the mail-in votes in the swing states.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:17 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 9:17 PM on November 5 [11 favorites]
Georgia and NC just flipped back to toss-up!
Up here in Toronto it was 25 degrees today.
posted by sixswitch at 9:19 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Up here in Toronto it was 25 degrees today.
posted by sixswitch at 9:19 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I don’t think this is a nail-biter. Current NYT projections:
Michigan: Trump +2.1
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9
Wisconsin: Trump +1.8
I think it’s 2016 again.
posted by argybarg at 9:20 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Michigan: Trump +2.1
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9
Wisconsin: Trump +1.8
I think it’s 2016 again.
posted by argybarg at 9:20 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Georgia and NC just flipped back to toss-up!
Source?
posted by NotLost at 9:21 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Source?
posted by NotLost at 9:21 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Isn't NYT missing a ton of people owing to a strike? I don't even care how accurate their election reporting is, surely there are better sources for coverage
posted by ginger.beef at 9:23 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 9:23 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I think NYT just glitched for a second, because I refreshed the page and suddenly both candidates were in the 100s again. I don't know if that's what sixswitch saw, but it's back to how it was before.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:25 PM on November 5
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:25 PM on November 5
It's devastating that the Biden-Harris administration was the most progressive and competent of my lifetime, and not only do Americans not recognize it, they punish it.
posted by ichomp at 9:25 PM on November 5 [50 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:25 PM on November 5 [50 favorites]
Like, there might not be another administration as progressive as Biden-Harris in my lifetime.
posted by ichomp at 9:26 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:26 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
270towin, shared above
posted by sixswitch at 9:28 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by sixswitch at 9:28 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
It’s…interesting that the takeaway for many here tonight is that Harris and the Dems were perfect and did nothing wrong.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:31 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:31 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Cock.
posted by Wordshore at 9:35 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 9:35 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Ignorant question from Europe here, often at the end of the night one of the candidates cedes victory to the other. How does that gel with absentee ballots etc? Is there a reason to do this other than in the case of an embarrassingly obvious landslide?
posted by Iteki at 9:35 PM on November 5
posted by Iteki at 9:35 PM on November 5
At the end of the day it appears white resentment outside of highly educated and well-compensated communities continues to drive a lot of Americans into the arms of tyranny. Tyrants offer easy scapegoats and easy solutions and I guess if you are a White Male who is seeing your job prospects and ability to achieve your dreams of marriage/career/retirement fail to materialize you are willing to vote for someone who promises pure freaking magic as the solution.
The persistent gaps in achievement by recent cohorts of men in the US is driving a lot of resentment and that's directed at all sort of groups such as women/PoC/immigrants as they see a lot of what their parents and grandparents were able to achieve as being out of reach. Success in Higher Education, getting solid careers, starting business, etc is something they can't achieve and they increasingly seem resentful of women who are increasingly selecting against having conservative partners so they see their ability to achieve some sort of idealized future as being denied to them.
Trump has successfully weaponized that resentment and there are a bunch of people backing him who feel like this is a way to lock in even more institutionalized power for oligarchs even if it will likely result in a significant recession by year 3 or 4 of a presumptive second Trump presidency.
posted by vuron at 9:36 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
The persistent gaps in achievement by recent cohorts of men in the US is driving a lot of resentment and that's directed at all sort of groups such as women/PoC/immigrants as they see a lot of what their parents and grandparents were able to achieve as being out of reach. Success in Higher Education, getting solid careers, starting business, etc is something they can't achieve and they increasingly seem resentful of women who are increasingly selecting against having conservative partners so they see their ability to achieve some sort of idealized future as being denied to them.
Trump has successfully weaponized that resentment and there are a bunch of people backing him who feel like this is a way to lock in even more institutionalized power for oligarchs even if it will likely result in a significant recession by year 3 or 4 of a presumptive second Trump presidency.
posted by vuron at 9:36 PM on November 5 [28 favorites]
Ignorant question from Europe here, often at the end of the night one of the candidates cedes victory to the other.
Trump didn't even concede in 2020, what makes you think he would now ?
posted by Pendragon at 9:37 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Trump didn't even concede in 2020, what makes you think he would now ?
posted by Pendragon at 9:37 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Like, there might not be another administration as progressive as Biden-Harris in my lifetime.
There might not be another Dem administration in my lifetime.
posted by NotLost at 9:38 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
There might not be another Dem administration in my lifetime.
posted by NotLost at 9:38 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
My count of House races at this moment:
147 D, 169 R, 119 uncalled
Still a lot of California uncalled races. A lot of northeast and midwestern seats uncalled. No returns in yet for Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii. People are still voting in parts of Alaska?
Almost no flips. North Carolina is messed up due to gerrymandering, Democrats probably have a net loss of 3 there. Alabama and Louisiana will probably come through with two gains for Democrats through court-ordered redistricting, at the moment both candidates are leading. I've heard that New York-22 has flipped to Democrats.
Among remaining seats, here are potential ones to watch:
Current Democratic seats, Democrat is leading, close race:
Colorado-8
New Mexico-2
Ohio-9
Texas-34
Virginia-7
Washington-3
Current Republican seats, Democrat is leading, potential flip:
Arizona-1
Arizona-6
California-13
California-27
California-41
California-45
Nebraska-2
New York-4
New York-19
Oregon-5
Pennsylvania-10
Current Democratic seats, Republican is leading, potential flip:
Maine-2
Maryland-6
Michigan-7
Michigan-8
Pennsylvania-7
Current Republican seats, Republican is leading, close race:
California-22
California-40
Iowa-1
Michigan-10
New York-17
Wisconsin-3
Some of these are very close and could easily change.
Note that California, and possibly Arizona, races could take a long time to finalize results.
posted by gimonca at 9:38 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
147 D, 169 R, 119 uncalled
Still a lot of California uncalled races. A lot of northeast and midwestern seats uncalled. No returns in yet for Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii. People are still voting in parts of Alaska?
Almost no flips. North Carolina is messed up due to gerrymandering, Democrats probably have a net loss of 3 there. Alabama and Louisiana will probably come through with two gains for Democrats through court-ordered redistricting, at the moment both candidates are leading. I've heard that New York-22 has flipped to Democrats.
Among remaining seats, here are potential ones to watch:
Current Democratic seats, Democrat is leading, close race:
Colorado-8
New Mexico-2
Ohio-9
Texas-34
Virginia-7
Washington-3
Current Republican seats, Democrat is leading, potential flip:
Arizona-1
Arizona-6
California-13
California-27
California-41
California-45
Nebraska-2
New York-4
New York-19
Oregon-5
Pennsylvania-10
Current Democratic seats, Republican is leading, potential flip:
Maine-2
Maryland-6
Michigan-7
Michigan-8
Pennsylvania-7
Current Republican seats, Republican is leading, close race:
California-22
California-40
Iowa-1
Michigan-10
New York-17
Wisconsin-3
Some of these are very close and could easily change.
Note that California, and possibly Arizona, races could take a long time to finalize results.
posted by gimonca at 9:38 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Ignorant question from Europe here, often at the end of the night one of the candidates cedes victory to the other.
That's usually done when the result is clear.
posted by NotLost at 9:40 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
That's usually done when the result is clear.
posted by NotLost at 9:40 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
(Is it too late to start the steal?)
posted by nobody at 9:44 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by nobody at 9:44 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
One tiny bit of good from all this is that hopefully we will never have to hear from Allan Lichtman again.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:45 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 9:45 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Every incumbent party around the world when the post-pandemic inflation began has lost, regardless of ideology and regardless of where inflation was at the moment of the election.
posted by argybarg at 9:46 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 9:46 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Ok, just woke up here in the Netherlands.... What the hell are you doing USA ? You're not seriously voting for that knucklehead again ?
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this. Those of us on the left--and even in the center--have spend the last decade as puzzled and alarmed by Donald Trump and his fascism as much as the most progressive Western European alive, so please stop with the "why I never..." comments about how fucked up America is. We know. We live here. And it's not like fascists are alien to Europe, either, so the pearl clutching doesn't help.
posted by zardoz at 9:50 PM on November 5 [50 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this. Those of us on the left--and even in the center--have spend the last decade as puzzled and alarmed by Donald Trump and his fascism as much as the most progressive Western European alive, so please stop with the "why I never..." comments about how fucked up America is. We know. We live here. And it's not like fascists are alien to Europe, either, so the pearl clutching doesn't help.
posted by zardoz at 9:50 PM on November 5 [50 favorites]
Nah, I think non-U.S. Americans are allowed to be as idiotic as the most idiotic U.S. Americans in this thread.
posted by ipsative at 9:52 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by ipsative at 9:52 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans
iS tHiS sOmEtHiNg i'D hAvE tO pAy fOr hEaLtHcArE tO uNdErStAnD
posted by phunniemee at 9:56 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
iS tHiS sOmEtHiNg i'D hAvE tO pAy fOr hEaLtHcArE tO uNdErStAnD
posted by phunniemee at 9:56 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
I remember thinking at the time, "How could the Brits vote for Brexit?" Now I know.... :(. I guess the billionaires and the bigots are happy. Maybe I will wake up tomorrow and it was all a bad dream.
posted by caddis at 9:58 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by caddis at 9:58 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Harris left without speaking. It's over.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:58 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by dirigibleman at 9:58 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Mod note: Deleted an aside about the 270towin maps at the original poster’s request, as they made an honest mistake.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:59 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 9:59 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
So there’s still a lot of votes in PA that won’t be counted til tmw…is there any chance TFG’s lead is enough tonight they can call the state? God I hope not.
posted by andruwjones26 at 10:00 PM on November 5
posted by andruwjones26 at 10:00 PM on November 5
American politics affects the rest of the world in disproportionate ways (the treatment of Muslims trying to travel or immigrate ANYWHERE after 9/11 still holds true 20+ years on) so we've got just as much right to be appalled as anyone else.
posted by creatrixtiara at 10:00 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
posted by creatrixtiara at 10:00 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
There's no way I'll be able to sleep tonight so I'm just binging call the midwife and hoping the lord takes me to pass out.
posted by phunniemee at 10:00 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by phunniemee at 10:00 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
NC hasn't been called but unless there are a ton of ballots from a democratic stronghold somewhere I can't see it making a difference.
There might be be enough votes left in Atlanta to make up the difference but without having precinct level reporting data to compare to previous years I don't know if anyone can reasonably expect Harris to bridge the 127k difference unless the margins on remaining ballots are extremely lopsided.
I'm not super hopefully about Wisconsin unless there is some indication that the remaining votes from Green Bay and the conservative Milwaukee burbs will somehow be negated by remaining Milwaukee and Madison votes.
Wisconsin just seems to continue to perpetually struggle with brain drain. Smart kids go to Madison, sort of vote while they are there and then get the fuck out for greener pastures. Until recent grads have more incentive to stay in the state I think they will continue to struggle since the growth of socially moderate highly educated professionals that form the backbone of a lot of coastal state economies and help drive up vote totals just doesn't seem to happen.
Make no mistake crazy tariffs wouldn't solve any of those issues but apparently people seem to buy into the ideas that protectionism and "strong borders" would somehow reverse 40-50 years of offshoring
posted by vuron at 10:00 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
There might be be enough votes left in Atlanta to make up the difference but without having precinct level reporting data to compare to previous years I don't know if anyone can reasonably expect Harris to bridge the 127k difference unless the margins on remaining ballots are extremely lopsided.
I'm not super hopefully about Wisconsin unless there is some indication that the remaining votes from Green Bay and the conservative Milwaukee burbs will somehow be negated by remaining Milwaukee and Madison votes.
Wisconsin just seems to continue to perpetually struggle with brain drain. Smart kids go to Madison, sort of vote while they are there and then get the fuck out for greener pastures. Until recent grads have more incentive to stay in the state I think they will continue to struggle since the growth of socially moderate highly educated professionals that form the backbone of a lot of coastal state economies and help drive up vote totals just doesn't seem to happen.
Make no mistake crazy tariffs wouldn't solve any of those issues but apparently people seem to buy into the ideas that protectionism and "strong borders" would somehow reverse 40-50 years of offshoring
posted by vuron at 10:00 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
This election was about inflation and immigration. A majority of voters hated inflation and they didn’t like the surge in border crossings, and they blamed Biden for both.
Kamala got closer than Biden would have, but no Democrat was going to win this. It only wound up as close as it did because Trump is feeble and unpleasant — but enough voters either like his style or are willing to overlook it.
posted by argybarg at 10:02 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Kamala got closer than Biden would have, but no Democrat was going to win this. It only wound up as close as it did because Trump is feeble and unpleasant — but enough voters either like his style or are willing to overlook it.
posted by argybarg at 10:02 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this.
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
posted by Pendragon at 10:02 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
posted by Pendragon at 10:02 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
52% voter turnout in my state, Washington, where voting is easier than most places. I don't know what it will take to get people to give a fuck.
Fortunately the people I was hoping would win the state-level elections have mostly won, and three out of four dumb initiatives have lost (and the fourth will probably be thrown out).
posted by The corpse in the library at 10:06 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Fortunately the people I was hoping would win the state-level elections have mostly won, and three out of four dumb initiatives have lost (and the fourth will probably be thrown out).
posted by The corpse in the library at 10:06 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Ok, non-Americans, please stop this.
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
Sure, but you understand that those Americans aren't the ones in this thread--right? I think most everyone in this space agrees that fascism is bad and did their best to disavow it. When non-Americans pop in to this space it feels smug and somewhat like rubbing salt into a wound. WE KNOW.
posted by knotty knots at 10:07 PM on November 5 [32 favorites]
I'll stop if Americans stop voting for fascists.
Sure, but you understand that those Americans aren't the ones in this thread--right? I think most everyone in this space agrees that fascism is bad and did their best to disavow it. When non-Americans pop in to this space it feels smug and somewhat like rubbing salt into a wound. WE KNOW.
posted by knotty knots at 10:07 PM on November 5 [32 favorites]
Kamala got closer than Biden would have, but no Democrat was going to win this.
This is one statement in a series of 1000s of statements which have helped normalize TFG. This should not even be close. I just listened to a clip of a veteran saying he voted because "TFG respects soldiers"
None of this resembles reality.
I say this as a non-USian who deals with the problem of TFG as much as anyone in proximity. I can't believe this was a contest, let alone one Harris could lose. Even genociding Harris, ffs
posted by ginger.beef at 10:09 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
This is one statement in a series of 1000s of statements which have helped normalize TFG. This should not even be close. I just listened to a clip of a veteran saying he voted
None of this resembles reality.
I say this as a non-USian who deals with the problem of TFG as much as anyone in proximity. I can't believe this was a contest, let alone one Harris could lose. Even genociding Harris, ffs
posted by ginger.beef at 10:09 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
these are not the Americans you are looking for
posted by Jacqueline at 10:09 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 10:09 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
I would love love love to be wrong about what I'm about to write, to learn that the Democrats have long prepared armies of lawyers ready to act in every county and every state where the Republican's long-established vote-destruction machine has been at work, starting tomorrow to throw everything they have at challenging the fraud that's behind some portion of Trump's win, but:
Overall the political entity known as the Democrats was less concerned with doing whatever it fucking takes to win than the Republicans were. It was never going to be a fair fight. Never ever ever ever ever. The Republicans have made that clear for years. The choice of the 'high road' over the low was never going to get the Democrats first to the finish line. The Republican candidate's entire career has been defined by lawbreaking, wiping his ass with the rulebook, and fighting dirty ; the party that's thrilled to have such an impressionable and morally vacuous puppet has made it clear for decades their utter disregard for character or principals, especially those the nation was founded on : they've rallied behind the kind of candidate that's the poster child of who the founders were driven to prevent. And yet ... we thought the Democratic candidate would win by playing fair, or by exercising the new politics of Joy?
The Democratic party -- my party -- was focused on ... various things... while the Republican party was focused on winning no matter the cost. It has been so goddamn obvious, for decades now, that for the GOP, party 'trumps' everything else, democracy included.
But at least we Democrats still have our principals. May those be a bastion against the terror.
I would love to read of substantive examples of how the Democrats will now bring the proper weapons to the gunfight, as opposed to having spent so much time and energy, during the past four years, on the sharpening and shining of knives.
posted by jerome powell buys his sweatbands in bulk only at 10:10 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Overall the political entity known as the Democrats was less concerned with doing whatever it fucking takes to win than the Republicans were. It was never going to be a fair fight. Never ever ever ever ever. The Republicans have made that clear for years. The choice of the 'high road' over the low was never going to get the Democrats first to the finish line. The Republican candidate's entire career has been defined by lawbreaking, wiping his ass with the rulebook, and fighting dirty ; the party that's thrilled to have such an impressionable and morally vacuous puppet has made it clear for decades their utter disregard for character or principals, especially those the nation was founded on : they've rallied behind the kind of candidate that's the poster child of who the founders were driven to prevent. And yet ... we thought the Democratic candidate would win by playing fair, or by exercising the new politics of Joy?
The Democratic party -- my party -- was focused on ... various things... while the Republican party was focused on winning no matter the cost. It has been so goddamn obvious, for decades now, that for the GOP, party 'trumps' everything else, democracy included.
But at least we Democrats still have our principals. May those be a bastion against the terror.
I would love to read of substantive examples of how the Democrats will now bring the proper weapons to the gunfight, as opposed to having spent so much time and energy, during the past four years, on the sharpening and shining of knives.
posted by jerome powell buys his sweatbands in bulk only at 10:10 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
Yeah, Pennsylvania is pretty much on Trump's side. The election is looking done, with Trump winning. The remaining 9% of Penn votes would have to be incredibly in favor of Harris, going hard against the average for the counties being counted, and all the other swing states would have to favor Harris as well, for her to grab the win. Never say never, but these are some real long odds.
posted by Philipschall at 10:12 PM on November 5
posted by Philipschall at 10:12 PM on November 5
So the only paths left are:
PA (19) + MI (15) + WI (10) = 44
PA (19) + MI (15) + AZ (11) = 45
Nevada (6) doesn't matter now that NC + GA went Trump.
So basically, all eyes on PA. Trump is up 220,000 votes with 93% in but maybe Philadelphia County pulls it out? It's only 77.6% reported and she has almost a 4:1 ratio there. My math says that gives her another 140k and Trump another 37k in that one county, so she closes by +107k ... but the ratios could be better or worse on the uncounted votes. Fuck, man.
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:12 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
PA (19) + MI (15) + WI (10) = 44
PA (19) + MI (15) + AZ (11) = 45
Nevada (6) doesn't matter now that NC + GA went Trump.
So basically, all eyes on PA. Trump is up 220,000 votes with 93% in but maybe Philadelphia County pulls it out? It's only 77.6% reported and she has almost a 4:1 ratio there. My math says that gives her another 140k and Trump another 37k in that one county, so she closes by +107k ... but the ratios could be better or worse on the uncounted votes. Fuck, man.
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:12 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
I'm still hoping against hope, but things look absolutely grim at this stage. I can't really point fingers, given my home state (Queensland, Australia) just elected a right-wing government headed by someone nobody I've ever spoken to trusts. I'm hoping this isn't a pattern when it comes to our national election sometime in the first half of next year, but not holding out much hope.
What the fuck is wrong with us all? I don't get it, except to assume that the collective population of the world prefers liars who tell them fairytales over hearing the truth. I'm so sorry for those who have fought this fight hard and (probably) lost again. It's such a tragedy that, in order to do good things, any prospective government will have to lie through their teeth to get elected in the first place. There doesn't seem to be any other way to win in this world. Lie and lie and lie again, tell the people whatever you have to with no need to waste time on plans or actual policy. Just lie your way in and then you can do whatever you want.
posted by dg at 10:14 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
What the fuck is wrong with us all? I don't get it, except to assume that the collective population of the world prefers liars who tell them fairytales over hearing the truth. I'm so sorry for those who have fought this fight hard and (probably) lost again. It's such a tragedy that, in order to do good things, any prospective government will have to lie through their teeth to get elected in the first place. There doesn't seem to be any other way to win in this world. Lie and lie and lie again, tell the people whatever you have to with no need to waste time on plans or actual policy. Just lie your way in and then you can do whatever you want.
posted by dg at 10:14 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
My guess was either Harris early blowout win by winning GA and NC or nail biter and here we are. Honestly if Harris does manage a win we’ll be in the courts for months. I guess Americans really want to live out The Handmaid’s Tale.
I really don’t want to see a GOP administration deal with a real financial crisis but here we go. Tariffs will cause more inflation, they’ll cut taxes, then the deficit goes up and interest rates with it. Goodbye strong dollar. I hope everyone enjoyed their quality of life.
But, sure, it’s immigration’s fault.
posted by Farce_First at 10:17 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I really don’t want to see a GOP administration deal with a real financial crisis but here we go. Tariffs will cause more inflation, they’ll cut taxes, then the deficit goes up and interest rates with it. Goodbye strong dollar. I hope everyone enjoyed their quality of life.
But, sure, it’s immigration’s fault.
posted by Farce_First at 10:17 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
It looks like CNN just called Georgia for Trump? NC was called by them some time ago. Now AP released a special statement that they're not calling Georgia yet. No, wait, they changed their mind as I'm typing this out and calling Georgia for Trump.
Michigan is only 60% counted. Wayne County (Detroit) is only 24% counted. Michigan is way too early to call.
Arizona is razor close right now, and only half counted. Way too early to call.
Nevada is at 70%, Harris is down about 3% or about 40k. Clark County (Las Vegas) is at 77%. Very tight.
Wisconsin is also fairly tough. Milwaukee is only at 60% reporting, there might be enough votes in Milwaukee to make up the difference, but other blue areas are at 95% reporting and don't have many more votes to contribute.
Pennsylvania: there are still votes outstanding in the Philadelphia area. There's also a few outstanding votes in Harrisburg. Pittsburgh votes look like they're all in. But, Harris is down 200k.
So...not looking great, but not done.
posted by gimonca at 10:17 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Michigan is only 60% counted. Wayne County (Detroit) is only 24% counted. Michigan is way too early to call.
Arizona is razor close right now, and only half counted. Way too early to call.
Nevada is at 70%, Harris is down about 3% or about 40k. Clark County (Las Vegas) is at 77%. Very tight.
Wisconsin is also fairly tough. Milwaukee is only at 60% reporting, there might be enough votes in Milwaukee to make up the difference, but other blue areas are at 95% reporting and don't have many more votes to contribute.
Pennsylvania: there are still votes outstanding in the Philadelphia area. There's also a few outstanding votes in Harrisburg. Pittsburgh votes look like they're all in. But, Harris is down 200k.
So...not looking great, but not done.
posted by gimonca at 10:17 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Actually, the Guardian has the best view of the current math I've found.
As of right now, Harris needs the following amounts to win each swing state:
66% of the remaining votes in PA
55% of the remaining votes in NV (not important though)
55% of the remaining votes in MI
63% of the remaining votes in WI
50% of the remaining votes in AZ
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:17 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
As of right now, Harris needs the following amounts to win each swing state:
66% of the remaining votes in PA
55% of the remaining votes in NV (not important though)
55% of the remaining votes in MI
63% of the remaining votes in WI
50% of the remaining votes in AZ
posted by caviar2d2 at 10:17 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Right wing groups in Europe have been playing with fascism just as long if not longer than the Republican party has gone full RedHats. The has been entertaining idiots like Farage for ages and decided to FAFO their economy with Brexit thinking they could bully Brussels into letting the UK have it's cake (no open borders) and eat it too (free access to the common market). Idiots in the City didn't really care if it hurt average Britons either way because the City will make money no matter what.
France narrowly avoided their own Trump in Le Pen because of their two stage election systems and a coalition of left and center parties. The Netherlands has had it's own issues. The economically stunted areas of East Germany, etc. Any place where economic outlooks have been decline vs the primary economic growth centers is fertile ground for fascism and fascism lite and thus far liberals across the West have failed to come up with a compelling solution for addressing these areas which has just led to slowly increasing populations willing to tolerate neofascism because "at least X got the trains to run on time" etc.
Honestly even though I have the ability to blend in with the angry right in professional and social settings I am concerned about what sort of crazy shit a potential Republican trifecta will try to achieve. My daughter is at an age where this reactionary attempts to control women could really impact her over time and while I'm fortunate in terms of being able to provide educational opportunities that very few peopl can it's depressing to note that a ton of at-risk groups don't have that same sort of privilege to ignore the drive towards Gilead or whatever the fuck the chuckleheads backing Vance and company want.
posted by vuron at 10:19 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
France narrowly avoided their own Trump in Le Pen because of their two stage election systems and a coalition of left and center parties. The Netherlands has had it's own issues. The economically stunted areas of East Germany, etc. Any place where economic outlooks have been decline vs the primary economic growth centers is fertile ground for fascism and fascism lite and thus far liberals across the West have failed to come up with a compelling solution for addressing these areas which has just led to slowly increasing populations willing to tolerate neofascism because "at least X got the trains to run on time" etc.
Honestly even though I have the ability to blend in with the angry right in professional and social settings I am concerned about what sort of crazy shit a potential Republican trifecta will try to achieve. My daughter is at an age where this reactionary attempts to control women could really impact her over time and while I'm fortunate in terms of being able to provide educational opportunities that very few peopl can it's depressing to note that a ton of at-risk groups don't have that same sort of privilege to ignore the drive towards Gilead or whatever the fuck the chuckleheads backing Vance and company want.
posted by vuron at 10:19 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
The Guardian has been my go to all day, I liked how simple and straightforward the math is. I was over the personalized simulation tools after 2016, glad to see some clear informative stats that don't need a ton of cognitive energy.
posted by ipsative at 10:20 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ipsative at 10:20 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
As someone who is Terminally Online and Gen X (so for my entire life Trump has been a fucking punchline) - how (if he is to win) do I disconnect somewhat from this to not drive myself insane for the next several years? Does anyone have any tips?
I just. cannot. believe. this. He's such a joke. He can't form a coherent thought. He doesn't have any plans. He has only been out for himself and his Brand for his entire life. Why do people keep falling for his nonsense?
posted by getawaysticks at 10:20 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]
I just. cannot. believe. this. He's such a joke. He can't form a coherent thought. He doesn't have any plans. He has only been out for himself and his Brand for his entire life. Why do people keep falling for his nonsense?
posted by getawaysticks at 10:20 PM on November 5 [37 favorites]
In science there's a heuristic, if you are confused or puzzled by something then you have the wrong explanatory understanding of what is happening.
I think 20th century leftist political theory has largely explained and predicted fascist phenomena in relation to actually-existing capitalism. In the context of middle America this was the great de-industrialization where white worker's labor was outsourced and globalized. Their towns left to be hollowed out and languish on their own, this disruption of the social fabric resulted in entire stratas of American society alienated from the technocratic elitism of Democrats and ripe for further exploitation by authoritarian capitalists whose successful recipe is to appeal to racism, misogyny, and nationalism.
posted by polymodus at 10:20 PM on November 5 [36 favorites]
I think 20th century leftist political theory has largely explained and predicted fascist phenomena in relation to actually-existing capitalism. In the context of middle America this was the great de-industrialization where white worker's labor was outsourced and globalized. Their towns left to be hollowed out and languish on their own, this disruption of the social fabric resulted in entire stratas of American society alienated from the technocratic elitism of Democrats and ripe for further exploitation by authoritarian capitalists whose successful recipe is to appeal to racism, misogyny, and nationalism.
posted by polymodus at 10:20 PM on November 5 [36 favorites]
The only real strategy for the dems is a 50 state strategy and a fight in every distric in every election and constantly pushing out messaging how the republicans policy are what are causing problems. Heck I hear people who follow politics regularly say how republicans cut the deficit and they haven't done that since before Regan. I place most of the blame on the DNC and abandoning rural areas which have a disproportionate impact on the electoral college and the republicans have to spend no effort for a crazy amount of seats. Kamala campaign wasn’t perfect, but trump’s was so terrible it doesn’t even make sense that it is that close. Regardless of who wins this only the start of trying to fix our broken system.
posted by roguewraith at 10:23 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by roguewraith at 10:23 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
you have the wrong explanatory understanding of what is happening
This has turned out to be an illuminating and appropriate listen for today.
posted by phunniemee at 10:23 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
This has turned out to be an illuminating and appropriate listen for today.
posted by phunniemee at 10:23 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
52% voter turnout in my state, Washington, where voting is easier than most places. I don't know what it will take to get people to give a fuck.
I am dead poor. I live in a bad neighborhood. The people I’m living with were kind enough to let me stay here while I get back on my feet but It’s Not Going Well. I don’t have a car, I had to move from a walkable neightborhood to a muggable neightborhood. I was punched in the face over the summer. By some random homeless guy that I ignored his advances because I was walking to by laundry detergent. I wasn’t doing great before the pandemic, but I was making life make sense again. A lot of the pandemic protections and assistance didn’t reach me, and what did was difficult to get or poorly implemented. I’ve been hungry more than once. I’m trying to find work but so often I can barely think. I have to leave the place I’m living, bus 45-60 minutes to a university because I’m living with a smoker and I have bad asthma that’s getting worse. I’m so deeply tired. My job search has only resulted in two interviews at retail stores and I didn’t get either.
I’m so fucking tired. I did make it to vote today, but I thought hard about not going. I know it matters but jeebus! And I know I’m not the only one dealing with life like this. I can’t get my feet under me. I do care who wins, but in a lot of ways, it just doesn’t matter with my day to day struggles. Kamala wasn’t going to reach down and help me. I wanted her to win, but when you’re just surviving, and a lot are, I can see why you wouldn’t. I haven’t missed a presidential election since Gore (threat of being fired) and not do I ever plan to. But bringing myself to go today was hard. And I wanted her to win, she wasn’t just no Trump to me.
Making it so it matters and is tangible will get people to give a fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 10:27 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]
I am dead poor. I live in a bad neighborhood. The people I’m living with were kind enough to let me stay here while I get back on my feet but It’s Not Going Well. I don’t have a car, I had to move from a walkable neightborhood to a muggable neightborhood. I was punched in the face over the summer. By some random homeless guy that I ignored his advances because I was walking to by laundry detergent. I wasn’t doing great before the pandemic, but I was making life make sense again. A lot of the pandemic protections and assistance didn’t reach me, and what did was difficult to get or poorly implemented. I’ve been hungry more than once. I’m trying to find work but so often I can barely think. I have to leave the place I’m living, bus 45-60 minutes to a university because I’m living with a smoker and I have bad asthma that’s getting worse. I’m so deeply tired. My job search has only resulted in two interviews at retail stores and I didn’t get either.
I’m so fucking tired. I did make it to vote today, but I thought hard about not going. I know it matters but jeebus! And I know I’m not the only one dealing with life like this. I can’t get my feet under me. I do care who wins, but in a lot of ways, it just doesn’t matter with my day to day struggles. Kamala wasn’t going to reach down and help me. I wanted her to win, but when you’re just surviving, and a lot are, I can see why you wouldn’t. I haven’t missed a presidential election since Gore (threat of being fired) and not do I ever plan to. But bringing myself to go today was hard. And I wanted her to win, she wasn’t just no Trump to me.
Making it so it matters and is tangible will get people to give a fuck.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 10:27 PM on November 5 [31 favorites]
50 state strategy and a fight in every district
This is meaningless without a message, which the Democrats consistently lack.
posted by Panjandrum at 10:28 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
This is meaningless without a message, which the Democrats consistently lack.
posted by Panjandrum at 10:28 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
Another good book to check out that phunniemee's recommendation reminded me of. (more about Evangelicals and how they all fell in line with Trump)
posted by getawaysticks at 10:31 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 10:31 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Is there any realistic way that Harris can win Pennsylvania at this point?
posted by medusa at 10:35 PM on November 5
posted by medusa at 10:35 PM on November 5
The 20th century was nice while it lasted I guess.
posted by torokunai at 10:35 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 10:35 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Fox has called Pennsylvania for Trump. No one else has called the state, but the reality is that if Harris doesn't win PA, she doesn't win. Stock up on nutrition and ammunition, get in good with your local mutual aid organization, because right now Trump appears to be the second coming of Grover Cleveland.
posted by Panjandrum at 10:37 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Panjandrum at 10:37 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
According to The Guardian:
Pennsylvania 93.1% counted
Trump leading by 196,395 ballots
Harris must win over 70% of the 490,400 estimated ballots left to count to overturn Trump lead
posted by runcifex at 10:37 PM on November 5
Pennsylvania 93.1% counted
Trump leading by 196,395 ballots
Harris must win over 70% of the 490,400 estimated ballots left to count to overturn Trump lead
posted by runcifex at 10:37 PM on November 5
Sure, but you understand that those Americans aren't the ones in this thread--right?
Yes, sorry. I'm just venting.
posted by Pendragon at 10:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Yes, sorry. I'm just venting.
posted by Pendragon at 10:39 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
My feeling about this election was, for many months, that it has ceased to be about the candidates. This wasn't a referendum on policy or even politics. This election was decided based on Republican voters feeling like they really want their team to win. This election was the result of Republicans wanting to get rid of their feelings of shame.
It has felt to me, for months, like the whole Republican electorate has been left feeling the exact same way that Trump felt when Obama humiliated him at one memorable White House Correspondents' Dinner many years ago, do you remember? The way Obama named and shamed Trump that day is the same way all of us named and shamed Republicans in the 2020 elections and January 6th and everything that came after. The naming and shaming was extremely richly deserved in each case! We weren't doing anything wrong. We were doing what was necessary and desperate and urgent.
But the effect of what we did was to create shame in the hearts of half the country. THEIR TEAM did unspeakable things and were caught in the act. THEIR TEAM was the punchline of every joke. THEIR TEAM did this.
What might have saved us all was if other prominent leaders in THEIR TEAM had repudiated Trump and Jan 6th and all of it. That would have allowed Republican voters to say, well, that wasn't MY TEAM, that was the craziest faction of MY TEAM and I'm associated with the normal faction of my team. But no Republican voter had this option. They were stuck with the shame of belonging to a TEAM that did unspeakably bad things for four damn years.
Nobody can live with shame like that. They *have" to deny it, reject it, cast it off, pretend that's not really shameful. They have to own what they did and say "fuck you, MY TEAM did nothing wrong." (I mean yeah theoretically there is a healthier option of admitting guilt and working on change from within but it is not a reasonable expectation from an electorate. There are vanishingly few individuals who can do this successfully. Trump certainly cannot.)
The moment the Republican leadership failed to distance themselves from Trump, this election was a foregone conclusion. There is nothing Trump could do wrong that would lose him this election, there is nothing Democrats could do right that would win us the election. The Republican electorate is motivated by the need to cast off shame, they aren't paying attention to their candidate, they don't give a shit who the candidate is, it's not about Trump electrifying the crowds anymore. This is about proving they can hold their head up high. It's too powerful a motivator.
Going into the 2020 election the Republican electorate felt a lot less shame - though they still felt a lot from the relentless onslaught of anti-Trump messaging for four years at least they had actually won 2016 and they hadn't done Jan 6th yet. And on the other side we had both the specter of literal death and true desperation motivating us to vote. It was enough then to help us win. This time our side is coming off of four years of relief and no pandemic. We were really not that desperate anymore. So it goes.
I'm sorry for all of us that we are here. I have no idea what we could have done to avoid this.
posted by MiraK at 10:40 PM on November 5 [54 favorites]
It has felt to me, for months, like the whole Republican electorate has been left feeling the exact same way that Trump felt when Obama humiliated him at one memorable White House Correspondents' Dinner many years ago, do you remember? The way Obama named and shamed Trump that day is the same way all of us named and shamed Republicans in the 2020 elections and January 6th and everything that came after. The naming and shaming was extremely richly deserved in each case! We weren't doing anything wrong. We were doing what was necessary and desperate and urgent.
But the effect of what we did was to create shame in the hearts of half the country. THEIR TEAM did unspeakable things and were caught in the act. THEIR TEAM was the punchline of every joke. THEIR TEAM did this.
What might have saved us all was if other prominent leaders in THEIR TEAM had repudiated Trump and Jan 6th and all of it. That would have allowed Republican voters to say, well, that wasn't MY TEAM, that was the craziest faction of MY TEAM and I'm associated with the normal faction of my team. But no Republican voter had this option. They were stuck with the shame of belonging to a TEAM that did unspeakably bad things for four damn years.
Nobody can live with shame like that. They *have" to deny it, reject it, cast it off, pretend that's not really shameful. They have to own what they did and say "fuck you, MY TEAM did nothing wrong." (I mean yeah theoretically there is a healthier option of admitting guilt and working on change from within but it is not a reasonable expectation from an electorate. There are vanishingly few individuals who can do this successfully. Trump certainly cannot.)
The moment the Republican leadership failed to distance themselves from Trump, this election was a foregone conclusion. There is nothing Trump could do wrong that would lose him this election, there is nothing Democrats could do right that would win us the election. The Republican electorate is motivated by the need to cast off shame, they aren't paying attention to their candidate, they don't give a shit who the candidate is, it's not about Trump electrifying the crowds anymore. This is about proving they can hold their head up high. It's too powerful a motivator.
Going into the 2020 election the Republican electorate felt a lot less shame - though they still felt a lot from the relentless onslaught of anti-Trump messaging for four years at least they had actually won 2016 and they hadn't done Jan 6th yet. And on the other side we had both the specter of literal death and true desperation motivating us to vote. It was enough then to help us win. This time our side is coming off of four years of relief and no pandemic. We were really not that desperate anymore. So it goes.
I'm sorry for all of us that we are here. I have no idea what we could have done to avoid this.
posted by MiraK at 10:40 PM on November 5 [54 favorites]
Which asshole used the monkey's paw to wish for no repeat of jan 6?
posted by stet at 10:41 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
posted by stet at 10:41 PM on November 5 [19 favorites]
Are we really going to go straight to "they cheated!"?
Best case scenario now is the Democratic Party fundamentally rethinks its coalition. Black and Latino voters moving right should be a wakeup call.
posted by hermanubis at 10:42 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
Best case scenario now is the Democratic Party fundamentally rethinks its coalition. Black and Latino voters moving right should be a wakeup call.
posted by hermanubis at 10:42 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I donated. I talked to friends and family to try to persuade them. I donated again. I bought a t-shirt and some bumper stickers. (I live in a Pennsylvania county that has gone 86.22% for the orange man. It is not a small thing to drive around with a Harris/Walz sticker in these parts.) I did what I could do. It was not enough. *sigh* And now it's four years of ... that, with fewer guardrails and fewer competent people to shut him down as he ages into... incoherence and his young, not-incoherent running mate stands by ready to fire up the Project 2025 to Make America Great Again. Looks like control of the senate is gone and the house swings in the balance. The Supreme Court is ripe for new, young, conservative justices and they *will* be approved. Buckle up, America, you're going to get what you voted for. I hope you're happy.
posted by which_chick at 10:42 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
posted by which_chick at 10:42 PM on November 5 [13 favorites]
I would argue that it's compounded by the fact that the Baby Boomers grew up during a nearly unprecendent period of economic growth, they didn't experience the horrors of fascism directly but instead experienced the struggle against fascism through some weird jingoistic patriotism.
That generation is wrapped up in nostalgia for a past that is a) incredibly idealized and b) not even remotely accessible to all populations. Gen X are edging closer to retirement and realizing that their 401k isn't going to cut it especially if inflation is > x% and they are chasing some magical 10% yearly gains on their woefully inadequate retirement savings or they have expensive Gen Z children.
Millenials are the first generation where the Great American Promise that your kids will be more prosperous than you doesn't seem to be materializing. Yes consumer goods made overseas are objectively cheaper when adjusting for inflation than their equivalent from back in the day but many of that generation aren't being able to effectively progress in their careers because older people are blocking advancement opportunities since they are trying to retirement max.
Gen Z are considered to be the most liberal generation but they are still not fully activated within the electorate and there is very concerning signs about how easy they are to program with alt-right messaging.
All of this has led to a lot of voters being willing to willfully ignore Trump's criminal tendencies because they think he can some how deliver on even a fraction of his campaign promises.
My main hope as a silver lining is that a lot of the proposals present in all of these christian nationalist manifestos are incredibly unpopular and that there are still enough adults in the party to keep the true believers from going full dominionist.
Small comfort to the Ukrainians and probably the Baltic states but Europe seems to be aware that depending on the US to be supercop is a dubious strategy for maintaining order in Europe and might be able to keep Ukraine propped up. I think a hot war with China in the next 4 years isn't impossible and if Xi wants Taiwan he's running out of time but my guess is that the oligarchs will try to rein in his worst tendencies on foreign policies since even they recognize war with China in either a tariff war or a military conflict would be bad for shareholder value.
posted by vuron at 10:43 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
That generation is wrapped up in nostalgia for a past that is a) incredibly idealized and b) not even remotely accessible to all populations. Gen X are edging closer to retirement and realizing that their 401k isn't going to cut it especially if inflation is > x% and they are chasing some magical 10% yearly gains on their woefully inadequate retirement savings or they have expensive Gen Z children.
Millenials are the first generation where the Great American Promise that your kids will be more prosperous than you doesn't seem to be materializing. Yes consumer goods made overseas are objectively cheaper when adjusting for inflation than their equivalent from back in the day but many of that generation aren't being able to effectively progress in their careers because older people are blocking advancement opportunities since they are trying to retirement max.
Gen Z are considered to be the most liberal generation but they are still not fully activated within the electorate and there is very concerning signs about how easy they are to program with alt-right messaging.
All of this has led to a lot of voters being willing to willfully ignore Trump's criminal tendencies because they think he can some how deliver on even a fraction of his campaign promises.
My main hope as a silver lining is that a lot of the proposals present in all of these christian nationalist manifestos are incredibly unpopular and that there are still enough adults in the party to keep the true believers from going full dominionist.
Small comfort to the Ukrainians and probably the Baltic states but Europe seems to be aware that depending on the US to be supercop is a dubious strategy for maintaining order in Europe and might be able to keep Ukraine propped up. I think a hot war with China in the next 4 years isn't impossible and if Xi wants Taiwan he's running out of time but my guess is that the oligarchs will try to rein in his worst tendencies on foreign policies since even they recognize war with China in either a tariff war or a military conflict would be bad for shareholder value.
posted by vuron at 10:43 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
I often regret giving up my Green Card (I know! Who does that?). Not one of those days today. Feels like this all but assures a Poilievre win in Canada next year too. Best of luck to us all, we’re going to need it.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 10:46 PM on November 5
posted by Jon Mitchell at 10:46 PM on November 5
I don’t know if it’s because I am naive or delusional or merely stupid, but I am in total shock. I find this incomprehensible. I literally am having trouble understanding how this is real.
We will have days and weeks and years to talk about how she could have and should have done more, especially on Gaza, a moral failure as well as a strategic one…but fuck me. All I can think about right now is how giddy I felt when Biden left the race and supported her, how glitteringly optimistic it all seemed in that moment.
How foolish I was. How painful the impact of landing from that delusion.
posted by Dorinda at 10:47 PM on November 5 [51 favorites]
We will have days and weeks and years to talk about how she could have and should have done more, especially on Gaza, a moral failure as well as a strategic one…but fuck me. All I can think about right now is how giddy I felt when Biden left the race and supported her, how glitteringly optimistic it all seemed in that moment.
How foolish I was. How painful the impact of landing from that delusion.
posted by Dorinda at 10:47 PM on November 5 [51 favorites]
At this point almost all of Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted, and Harris is still trailing Trump in PA 51%-48% statewide (200K votes).
I think it's pretty much game over.
posted by splitpeasoup at 10:47 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I think it's pretty much game over.
posted by splitpeasoup at 10:47 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
It doesn’t mean anything. The millions raised, the get out the vote ground game, the celebrity endorsements, filling stadiums to the rafters. None of that matters.
The second guessing has begun but it doesn’t matter. We’re a country filled with hateful stupid petty people.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:51 PM on November 5 [42 favorites]
The second guessing has begun but it doesn’t matter. We’re a country filled with hateful stupid petty people.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:51 PM on November 5 [42 favorites]
Yeah, unfortunately I don't see how Pennsylvania is winnable.
posted by medusa at 10:51 PM on November 5
posted by medusa at 10:51 PM on November 5
Everything hurts, and I'm so, so tired.
posted by ApathyGirl at 10:54 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
posted by ApathyGirl at 10:54 PM on November 5 [10 favorites]
Biden is right, a lot of people are garbage.
posted by ichomp at 10:55 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 10:55 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
Yo, America, what the fuck?
This is the second time I wake up to this shit.
posted by From Bklyn at 10:58 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
This is the second time I wake up to this shit.
posted by From Bklyn at 10:58 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Until today, a constant refrain was that what happened online was not a true picture of what was going on in the real world. Sure stuff like "MAGA will avenge the squirrel" (it's just a recent example, a lot of other stuff that floated around online was either dumber or more offensive) seemed like a twitter/truth social/facebook thing that stayed inside a bubble and didn't reflect how people, especially the right wing, actually thought.
But no, this stuff does matter. This is really how they think and they really are online 24/7. While people on the left encouraged others to "go outside and touch grass" the right was just doubling down on everything; their anger, their fear, their greed (in some cases), their thirst for revenge (real or perceived), their hate.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:00 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
But no, this stuff does matter. This is really how they think and they really are online 24/7. While people on the left encouraged others to "go outside and touch grass" the right was just doubling down on everything; their anger, their fear, their greed (in some cases), their thirst for revenge (real or perceived), their hate.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:00 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Dorinda - we were all so excited! Finally a non-white non-male non-76+ year old person in that race that was destined to be a trainwreck. I ran out to my husband who was working in the yard and yelled "Biden Dropped Out" and burst into tears.
What a shame.
posted by getawaysticks at 11:01 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
What a shame.
posted by getawaysticks at 11:01 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
You need to look on the bright side, if trump wins then people in cages at the border and materially supporting a genocide may go back to being bad things.
posted by Iax at 11:01 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Iax at 11:01 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
I am living in a very Trumpy in PA area and what most people think about is nothing about what people think about here. It’s literally all economic security that drives the mood with racism/sexism thrown on top. Nobody even talks about January 6th. They have no clue who policies does what other than what gets filtered through the media, which is garbage and the retention of what happened even last year is close to zero. Yeah Kamala Harris should have been more perfect, but this a complete failure of the Democratic Party as a whole. The republicans ran a disorganized campaign and this should be no contest. The fact that there were a ton a new voter registrations that were republican in PAis a sign of Democratic Party weakness as whole over the last 8 years. Every democratic candidate should not have to be perfect to win.
posted by roguewraith at 11:02 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
posted by roguewraith at 11:02 PM on November 5 [20 favorites]
Anecdotal but I talked to my Mom, a (barely) millionaire boomer in metro Detroit, many times about the election. She and my Dad came from zero money and worked very hard and saved their money like crazy. She voted DT in 2016 and then Biden in 2020. She's pretty Republican, and is surrounded in her "active retirement" community by serious Trumpers. After Dobbs she swore she would never vote Republican again - she has 3 daughters! She couldn't believe that our rights were taken away.
As the election got closer, she changed her mind and said "I think immigration is more of an issue for me than abortion." I just about fell on the floor. She's a white woman who never has to work again living in a prosh suburb of Detroit, what is immigration doing to you? "They are using up resources that might take away from my social security."
She did end up voting for Kamala but only after the Arnold Palmer speech. She said that was the last straw. (We are a golfing family)
posted by getawaysticks at 11:02 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
As the election got closer, she changed her mind and said "I think immigration is more of an issue for me than abortion." I just about fell on the floor. She's a white woman who never has to work again living in a prosh suburb of Detroit, what is immigration doing to you? "They are using up resources that might take away from my social security."
She did end up voting for Kamala but only after the Arnold Palmer speech. She said that was the last straw. (We are a golfing family)
posted by getawaysticks at 11:02 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
I fear that this is the end of my country. I’m saddened to think that I never really knew it in the first place.
I fear for my daughters and their future.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:02 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
I fear for my daughters and their future.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:02 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Dorinda: I'm in shock too... it leaves me wondering where peoples' consciences' are? I thought we spent the better part of the few past decades trying to crack the cloistered conscience of some of these folks, mine certainly was cracked. Others I guess are more durable than that. Stubbornly so. Jesus flipping a table doesn't mean meaningful shit to them.
And worse from my standpoint: the GWB administration made sense from an oil angle, as bad as that is. The Trump admin makes sense from none. Bankrupt property? morals? ___?
My recent thought is that folks more local want more power, and feel that a more coherent higher level power in the presidency steals from that. So pop a dummy in there, this time being Trump. No one sensible will look there now. Of course, we know that he has plans that'd effect the lower levels pretty immediately. But it's not like consistency has been a thing with this party aside from "we're in charge, deal with it".
Inflation, immigration, be damned
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:02 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
And worse from my standpoint: the GWB administration made sense from an oil angle, as bad as that is. The Trump admin makes sense from none. Bankrupt property? morals? ___?
My recent thought is that folks more local want more power, and feel that a more coherent higher level power in the presidency steals from that. So pop a dummy in there, this time being Trump. No one sensible will look there now. Of course, we know that he has plans that'd effect the lower levels pretty immediately. But it's not like consistency has been a thing with this party aside from "we're in charge, deal with it".
Inflation, immigration, be damned
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:02 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
JoeXIII007: isn't it just "fuck you, libs"? Isn't that the whole point?
posted by getawaysticks at 11:04 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 11:04 PM on November 5 [12 favorites]
If there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden on issues important to broad sectors of the electorate. So at the end of the day this still ended up becoming a referendum on Biden's presidency and complaints from the electorate that they are struggling economically and they want someone to solve their problems.
Because Harris wasn't going to be able to run against Biden and against Trump she had to try to make it a referendum on Trump and unfortunately even though even Republicans dislike Trump's crass and venal opportunism they wanted to be told a story about how they are going to get ahead.
Full on nationalism, protectionism, etc isn't going to solve people's economic problems and will actually negatively impact them but getting a low information voter to understand tariffs are horrible economic policies is already putting yourself on the backfoot because you are letting the other team define the rules of the debate.
At the end of the day liberals need to come up with compelling economic arguments that appeal not just to economic policy wonks but also fill that populist need to appeal to low information voters. I'm not sure depression era FDR chicken in every pot would work but something akin to a making a promise that no American should be left behind economically is probably what's needed to combat the unicorn and rainbows Trump has been promising his supporters.
posted by vuron at 11:07 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Because Harris wasn't going to be able to run against Biden and against Trump she had to try to make it a referendum on Trump and unfortunately even though even Republicans dislike Trump's crass and venal opportunism they wanted to be told a story about how they are going to get ahead.
Full on nationalism, protectionism, etc isn't going to solve people's economic problems and will actually negatively impact them but getting a low information voter to understand tariffs are horrible economic policies is already putting yourself on the backfoot because you are letting the other team define the rules of the debate.
At the end of the day liberals need to come up with compelling economic arguments that appeal not just to economic policy wonks but also fill that populist need to appeal to low information voters. I'm not sure depression era FDR chicken in every pot would work but something akin to a making a promise that no American should be left behind economically is probably what's needed to combat the unicorn and rainbows Trump has been promising his supporters.
posted by vuron at 11:07 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Oh don’t worry, we’ll get depression era soon enough.
posted by azpenguin at 11:09 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 11:09 PM on November 5 [7 favorites]
Anyone else up for an intensive French learning club? Learning French is worth up to 50 extra points in the Canadian immigration system!
posted by Jacqueline at 11:11 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
posted by Jacqueline at 11:11 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
It's not just Fox anymore, by the way. CNN and NBC are calling Pennsylvania for Trump, and thus, the election.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:12 PM on November 5
posted by LostInUbe at 11:12 PM on November 5
NBC has called Pennsylvania for Trump, and given Alaska leans heavily R, he will take the white house.
posted by pwnguin at 11:13 PM on November 5
posted by pwnguin at 11:13 PM on November 5
getawaysticks: I guess I'm delusional in hoping it ain't that dumb
but you're right.
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:13 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
but you're right.
posted by JoeXIII007 at 11:13 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
There's still hope. I'm going to bed, and hoping things look different tomorrow.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:15 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Kevin Street at 11:15 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
As president, Trump will play host to both the World Cup (2026) and the Summer Olympics (2028). That's going to be something.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by LostInUbe at 11:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
If there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden
Why would she want that distance?! She was his VP! She should have been running on his record, which was fine, totally fine.
I don't want to single you out in particular, but you are illustrating the problem of US politics. We can have a widely successful president on inflation and union benefits, as well as a number of other economic numbers, but those facts are pointless because US politics are no longer fact based.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:16 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]
Why would she want that distance?! She was his VP! She should have been running on his record, which was fine, totally fine.
I don't want to single you out in particular, but you are illustrating the problem of US politics. We can have a widely successful president on inflation and union benefits, as well as a number of other economic numbers, but those facts are pointless because US politics are no longer fact based.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:16 PM on November 5 [26 favorites]
Fireworks going off in the park by my apartment. Good night everyone
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:16 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 11:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 11:18 PM on November 5 [3 favorites]
I said in the Biden debate thread that Trump would beat Harris. I'm not gloating - but why did I say it?
Because there are a lot of voters out there that detest the two parties and see them as grasping liars. Beholden to the corporations. Living in a bubble. In 2016 those people saw Trump as someone who was not one of the usual Republican politicians and they watched with glee as he knocked down primary candidate after candidate, mainly by pointing out that they would say anything to get elected. Bam - instant hero to them, and all the other Republicans had to fall in line.
This time around none of those voters saw anything in Kamala than another wishy washy Democrat machine politician, and they were never going to swap from Trump to her.
Yes they are stupid if they think Trump is any better than the people in the Republican party he replaced, but all that stuff about him being morally repugnant, stupid, narcissistic, etc etc? They don't care! They like that about him because it makes all the people he beats look incredibly stupid.
To stop the rot, the Democrats are going to have to have a major clearout of all the time servers - all the politicians who are happy to take whatever they can get while paying lip service to intersectional politics. It's over. It's been over for a decade and they just won't accept it.
They don't fight, they never fight, and that's why they lose.
posted by awfurby at 11:20 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
Because there are a lot of voters out there that detest the two parties and see them as grasping liars. Beholden to the corporations. Living in a bubble. In 2016 those people saw Trump as someone who was not one of the usual Republican politicians and they watched with glee as he knocked down primary candidate after candidate, mainly by pointing out that they would say anything to get elected. Bam - instant hero to them, and all the other Republicans had to fall in line.
This time around none of those voters saw anything in Kamala than another wishy washy Democrat machine politician, and they were never going to swap from Trump to her.
Yes they are stupid if they think Trump is any better than the people in the Republican party he replaced, but all that stuff about him being morally repugnant, stupid, narcissistic, etc etc? They don't care! They like that about him because it makes all the people he beats look incredibly stupid.
To stop the rot, the Democrats are going to have to have a major clearout of all the time servers - all the politicians who are happy to take whatever they can get while paying lip service to intersectional politics. It's over. It's been over for a decade and they just won't accept it.
They don't fight, they never fight, and that's why they lose.
posted by awfurby at 11:20 PM on November 5 [24 favorites]
> Trump will play host to
And the 250 yr bicentennial
Maybe he’ll get his tank parade this time
posted by torokunai at 11:21 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
And the 250 yr bicentennial
Maybe he’ll get his tank parade this time
posted by torokunai at 11:21 PM on November 5 [5 favorites]
.
posted by Marticus at 11:22 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 11:22 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Ok, just woke up here in the Netherlands
Don't you have some fertilizer to wash off your parliament building after the farmers came to town? Oh wait, aren't those farmers in your parliament, because they're part of your ruling coalition?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:23 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
Don't you have some fertilizer to wash off your parliament building after the farmers came to town? Oh wait, aren't those farmers in your parliament, because they're part of your ruling coalition?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:23 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
The unfortunate thing is that while a lot of Trump voters pick him because of the racism, etc, there are also a lot of Trump voters who pick him because they mistakenly believe that he will improve the economy for working people and fix the many problems facing this country. You don't get this kind of realignment because suddenly a lot more people are evil; you get it because a lot more people are radically misled. They think that because Harris is unlikely to fix their problems, Trump must be likely to fix them by some kind of default, instead of thinking that neither party is going to fix their problems but one party is going to make them a lot worse. This is a Brexit situation - propagandized and misled people voted in a bad situation for something that will make things worse, and the misled plus the racists were enough to win.
I suspect that mefites generally tend to underestimate how misinformed people are, and how much of that is built into the system. There's plenty of people who are affirmatively terrible out there, but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on. Obviously Trump is going to make the economy much worse - how much worse depends on how much of his agenda he enacts. But people who have been prevented from understanding big picture economic stuff don't get that; their thinking is that things are bad now and so a change, a vote against, is going to produce good results, because they believe that if there are two choices one must be good for them. "There are two choices and both are bad but one is worse" is hard for people to internalize and act on.
As with the last Trump victory, there is plenty of blame to go around. The Democratic party has been digging its own grave since the Clinton administration, but that's not to say that lots of other people with shovels weren't helping. If it wasn't this election, it would have been the next election, because every election has become "stave off the Very Worst for another four years of stasis" and one election or another you won't be able to stave off the Very Worst anymore - it's like juggling knives, at some point you're going to miss one.
The past eight years have been real appel du vide times - it's been clear that eventually we were going to fall into the abyss and one always wonders if it's not better just to leap. Interesting to find that we are now after all falling and leaping is no longer an option.
posted by Frowner at 11:23 PM on November 5 [54 favorites]
I suspect that mefites generally tend to underestimate how misinformed people are, and how much of that is built into the system. There's plenty of people who are affirmatively terrible out there, but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on. Obviously Trump is going to make the economy much worse - how much worse depends on how much of his agenda he enacts. But people who have been prevented from understanding big picture economic stuff don't get that; their thinking is that things are bad now and so a change, a vote against, is going to produce good results, because they believe that if there are two choices one must be good for them. "There are two choices and both are bad but one is worse" is hard for people to internalize and act on.
As with the last Trump victory, there is plenty of blame to go around. The Democratic party has been digging its own grave since the Clinton administration, but that's not to say that lots of other people with shovels weren't helping. If it wasn't this election, it would have been the next election, because every election has become "stave off the Very Worst for another four years of stasis" and one election or another you won't be able to stave off the Very Worst anymore - it's like juggling knives, at some point you're going to miss one.
The past eight years have been real appel du vide times - it's been clear that eventually we were going to fall into the abyss and one always wonders if it's not better just to leap. Interesting to find that we are now after all falling and leaping is no longer an option.
posted by Frowner at 11:23 PM on November 5 [54 favorites]
We can have a widely successful president on inflation
Honestly, the best anyone can plausibly claim about the Biden inflation response was that the Inflation Reduction Act probably didn't cause much additional inflation. The most recent data puts us at 2.4% over the past 12 months, when the goal is to be below 2.0. And to get there the Fed, a.k.a. Not Biden -- had to raise interest rates pretty heavily.
posted by pwnguin at 11:25 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
Honestly, the best anyone can plausibly claim about the Biden inflation response was that the Inflation Reduction Act probably didn't cause much additional inflation. The most recent data puts us at 2.4% over the past 12 months, when the goal is to be below 2.0. And to get there the Fed, a.k.a. Not Biden -- had to raise interest rates pretty heavily.
posted by pwnguin at 11:25 PM on November 5 [2 favorites]
2% is the floor actuzlly, and rates were normalized, not raised all that high
posted by torokunai at 11:25 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 11:25 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
> I literally am having trouble understanding how this is real.
re: The Destructionists
something like...
lee atwater > newt gingrich > karl rove
-Hungarian Parliament Votes to Extend Orban's Rule by Decree
-Orban Challenger Magyar's Party Widens Lead in Hungarian Poll
posted by kliuless at 11:26 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
re: The Destructionists
something like...
lee atwater > newt gingrich > karl rove
In 2008, a Republican operative named Chris Jankowski had an idea. Others, including Republicans, in the wake of Barack Obama's presidential victory, concluded demography might soon afford Democrats a realignment to rival Franklin Delano Roosevelt's.Dana Milbank charts the 25-year journey to Jan. 6. He’s optimistic — in the long term
Jankowski instead saw an Icarus flying too close to the sun. The important election, he realized, would come two years later, for seats in state legislatures across the United States.
He began making a presentation to corporate and conservative donors: Fund my new "Republican State Leadership Committee" (a title he had intentionally chosen to be nondescript, as befitted a stealth guerilla campaign), and I will give you the world.
He called his plan "Project REDMAP." It would work like this.
Through assiduous research, his group would pinpoint a handful of vulnerable Democratic seats in states where control of state legislatures was close—Pennsylvania, for example, where Democrats controlled the lower chamber by a single vote—identifying the tipping points that could flip those bodies for the Republicans. They would then control the drawing of U.S. Congressional maps after the 2010 census.
At the time there were an estimated 25 true "swing" Congressional districts. By deploying state-of-the-art software to devise maps to capture the greatest number of U.S. House seats with the fewest number of votes, the party could move every one of them safely into Republican hands for at least the next 10 years.
All, he promised, for the low, low price of $30 million—about a tenth of what people are estimating the candidates will spend in the upcoming 2018 Illinois governor's race alone.
Karl Rove ducked in on one of the pitch meetings: "People call us a vast right-wing conspiracy, but we're really a half-assed right-wing conspiracy. Now it's time to get serious."
You write about anocracy (part democracy, part dictatorship) and include quotes about an approaching civil war. Where are we headed?also btw...
We have to get back to a place where there’s a shared set of facts or nothing else is going to work. I believe we will get back there but I don’t know what happens between now and then. My optimism is in the long run — this struggle is racial and it’s going to be resolved because we are not going to be a white-dominated country — but that’s 30 or 40 years from now. I’m not optimistic in the near term.
All the signs of our trajectory are pointing in the wrong direction right now. The level of violence could be greater. There’s going to be a chipping away at democratic institutions and press freedoms. We can’t predict how much of this will be lost until things start turning around, so all we can do is keep fighting at every turn to preserve it.
-Hungarian Parliament Votes to Extend Orban's Rule by Decree
-Orban Challenger Magyar's Party Widens Lead in Hungarian Poll
posted by kliuless at 11:26 PM on November 5 [15 favorites]
Someone please just tell me how I’m supposed to explain this to my ten-year-old daughter when she wakes up in a few hours. I’m serious; I need a script.
I don’t know how to be her rock, her “helper” she should look for in times of trouble, when I am terrified myself.
posted by timestep at 11:26 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
I don’t know how to be her rock, her “helper” she should look for in times of trouble, when I am terrified myself.
posted by timestep at 11:26 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
It's all zero-sum-game politics and unfortunately zero-sum-game is very very easy for people to frame all sort of pretty racist/sexist/prejudiced arguments in.
A significant % of people are naturally jealous that someone else getting x means that it's coming at their expense. Appeals to empathy, fairness, or even that looking out for the collective will result in a bigger slice of the pie for everyone simply don't resonate for this group at all.
Student Loan forgiveness was a key example of this, "I didn't need someone paying my school loans why do they" was a common refrain. Nevermind that freeing up income from former students would actually have a beneficial impact on growing the economy it was very easy for a lot of the electorate to see that as unfair because it benefitted groups other than themselves. Same with anything that is percieved to be benefiting a historically disadvantaged group. Redressing systemic racism/sexism/etc is not something they want the government doing even if it's fundamentally fair because they have no desire to see fairness enforced if it doesn't result in a material benefit to them.
I don't know what % of the electorate truly doesn't care about fairness or doesn't have empathy but I think we've all been surprised over the last 8 years about how high that % looks to be and how resentful they are about any policy that gets put in place that doesn't benefit them. It does seem to be that the Republican party has been able to weaponize resentment and a lack of empathy on the part of some voters however.
posted by vuron at 11:27 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
A significant % of people are naturally jealous that someone else getting x means that it's coming at their expense. Appeals to empathy, fairness, or even that looking out for the collective will result in a bigger slice of the pie for everyone simply don't resonate for this group at all.
Student Loan forgiveness was a key example of this, "I didn't need someone paying my school loans why do they" was a common refrain. Nevermind that freeing up income from former students would actually have a beneficial impact on growing the economy it was very easy for a lot of the electorate to see that as unfair because it benefitted groups other than themselves. Same with anything that is percieved to be benefiting a historically disadvantaged group. Redressing systemic racism/sexism/etc is not something they want the government doing even if it's fundamentally fair because they have no desire to see fairness enforced if it doesn't result in a material benefit to them.
I don't know what % of the electorate truly doesn't care about fairness or doesn't have empathy but I think we've all been surprised over the last 8 years about how high that % looks to be and how resentful they are about any policy that gets put in place that doesn't benefit them. It does seem to be that the Republican party has been able to weaponize resentment and a lack of empathy on the part of some voters however.
posted by vuron at 11:27 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
.
posted by getawaysticks at 11:27 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 11:27 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
What the fuck is wrong with us all? I don't get it, except to assume that the collective population of the world prefers liars who tell them fairytales over hearing the truth.
The banal answer is probably something along the lines of the western democracies embraced austerity and bailing out the banks after the Great Recession rather than social democracy or Keynesian relief or anything like that. And then they doubled-down on similar policies during the pandemic. The people, desperate for any salve, have thus embraced big-talking demagogues.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:27 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
The banal answer is probably something along the lines of the western democracies embraced austerity and bailing out the banks after the Great Recession rather than social democracy or Keynesian relief or anything like that. And then they doubled-down on similar policies during the pandemic. The people, desperate for any salve, have thus embraced big-talking demagogues.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:27 PM on November 5 [18 favorites]
Dang, just a week until the ten year anniversary of this comment:
The left, the progressive movement, social justice, whatever - not only the Democratic Party - needs to figure out how to do populism again. Hard-right xenophobes are in the EU Parliament, and misogynist trolls are co-opting hobbyist movements on the internet. People laugh at Dark Enlightenment types as dorks, but they're just the smoke before the fire; as liberal democracy breaks down and market capitalism swallows itself, more and more people are going to be turned towards an ultra-regressive hard-right douchebag conservatism that seeks to undo everything that's been established in the postwar era. Progressives need to stop with the tu quoque arguments and getting offended by these criticisms, and see how to adapt the message, innovate the message, whatever to win over hearts and minds. Writing off entire populations of people is not how you win over the petit bourgeois or the proletariat. Remember Weimar.
If the left is to be taken seriously as serving the cause of the people, they need to learn how to speak the language of the people again.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:02 PM on November 12, 2014 [8 favorites +] [⚑]
posted by Apocryphon at 11:28 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
The left, the progressive movement, social justice, whatever - not only the Democratic Party - needs to figure out how to do populism again. Hard-right xenophobes are in the EU Parliament, and misogynist trolls are co-opting hobbyist movements on the internet. People laugh at Dark Enlightenment types as dorks, but they're just the smoke before the fire; as liberal democracy breaks down and market capitalism swallows itself, more and more people are going to be turned towards an ultra-regressive hard-right douchebag conservatism that seeks to undo everything that's been established in the postwar era. Progressives need to stop with the tu quoque arguments and getting offended by these criticisms, and see how to adapt the message, innovate the message, whatever to win over hearts and minds. Writing off entire populations of people is not how you win over the petit bourgeois or the proletariat. Remember Weimar.
If the left is to be taken seriously as serving the cause of the people, they need to learn how to speak the language of the people again.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:02 PM on November 12, 2014 [8 favorites +] [⚑]
posted by Apocryphon at 11:28 PM on November 5 [25 favorites]
"We can deny our heritage and our history, but we cannot escape responsibility for the result. There is no way for a citizen of a republic to abdicate his responsibilities. As a nation we have come into our full inheritance at a tender age. We proclaim ourselves, as indeed we are, the defenders of freedom, wherever it continues to exist in the world, but we cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home. The actions of the j̶u̶n̶i̶o̶r̶ ̶S̶e̶n̶a̶t̶o̶r̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶̶̶̶W̶i̶s̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶n̶-/t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶m̶e̶r̶ ̶p̶r̶e̶s̶i̶d̶e̶n̶t̶ have caused alarm and dismay amongst our allies abroad, and given considerable comfort to our enemies. And whose fault is that? Not really his. He didn’t create this situation of fear; he merely exploited it — and rather successfully. Cassius was right. ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.’
Good night, and good luck.”
– Edward R. Murrow
posted by clavdivs at 11:28 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
Good night, and good luck.”
– Edward R. Murrow
posted by clavdivs at 11:28 PM on November 5 [8 favorites]
>how I’m supposed to explain this to my ten-year-old daughter
https://eccentricemmie.medium.com/only-30-50-of-people-have-an-internal-monologue-b75125ca5694
posted by torokunai at 11:30 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
https://eccentricemmie.medium.com/only-30-50-of-people-have-an-internal-monologue-b75125ca5694
posted by torokunai at 11:30 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
>or Keynesian relief
We did that in 2021 and we got “inflation!1!” for the trouble
posted by torokunai at 11:33 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
We did that in 2021 and we got “inflation!1!” for the trouble
posted by torokunai at 11:33 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden
This. And not understanding that it doesn’t matter if you personally like what Biden has done, the electorate doesn’t. The electorate overall did not feel their lives had improved under Biden. And you can’t just tell people that they’re mistaken about their lives.
posted by corb at 11:37 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
This. And not understanding that it doesn’t matter if you personally like what Biden has done, the electorate doesn’t. The electorate overall did not feel their lives had improved under Biden. And you can’t just tell people that they’re mistaken about their lives.
posted by corb at 11:37 PM on November 5 [14 favorites]
.
posted by shesdeadimalive at 11:37 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
posted by shesdeadimalive at 11:37 PM on November 5 [1 favorite]
a message, which the Democrats consistently lack
The story that needs to be widely understood is this:
Worldwide, unprecedented amounts of government money got handed out very suddenly during the pre-vaccination phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a completely justifiable attempt to limit the number of ordinary people becoming destitute. This was humane and appropriate policy, and governments that did more of it caused their nations much less suffering than governments that did less.
However, that massive transfer of wealth from government hands to private hands rapidly worked its way through the world's economies and ended up, via the usual channels, in the bank accounts of the already wealthy, who became even more so - again, at an unprecedented rate.
Those people, already having more totally passive income than they could possibly spend on anything they actually need even if given hundreds of lifetimes to do so, have now spent their unthinkably large COVID windfall on acquiring even more of the assets formerly owned by the middle classes. That additional demand for assets from the wealthy has rapidly increased the prices of assets generally, which has led to correspondingly rapid increases in the rents charged to non-owners for the use of those assets.
That sudden huge across-the-board rent increase, coupled with supply chain issues caused directly by the pandemic's effects on the workforce, caused a huge spike in inflation. Reserve banks across the world have reacted to that in the only way that their enabling legislation allows them to, by jacking up interest rates to "cool" their economies. This has worked in the past, inflation being a symptom of the existence of more demand within an economy than it can match with supply. But it's been much less effective and therefore much more protracted this time around, because the demand increase that drove this inflationary spike was driven by a very small segment of society that was already massively cashed up, and whose spending patterns are therefore far less affected by the price of loans. In fact, given that debt is also an asset, jacking up the price of money amounts to yet another income boost for the owners of debt, and guess who that is?
So ordinary people have seen across-the-board price rises coming at them from every conceivable direction, and given that most voters are low-information voters when it comes to either politics or macroeconomics, the predictable and predicted result has been massive unpopularity for incumbent governments as folks look for somebody to blame.
The message that needs to be widely understood is this:
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
But until every voter in every democracy is yelling that message at the ruling classes, there's about as much chance of any of them acting on it as there is of Palestinians being widely thought of as ordinary human beings.
I have learned enough about the value that human beings put on wilful ignorance to expect neither of these things to happen in my remaining lifetime. I have also long had enough faith in American racism and misogyny to be completely unsurprised by today's result; anybody who knows me face to face will have heard me predicting it with a weird combination of confidence and pants-shitting fear since October last year.
Then again, I'm also That Guy who has been yammering on about the inevitability of widespread social collapse as human overgrowth continues to crush and crowd out everything else for the last forty years, and who chose not to reproduce on that basis, so I'm probably not the oracle you're looking for at this point.
As for what to do next: I can't think of anything more constructive than nurturing your local kids. Do your best to show them how and why not to grow up into the fuckwits who inflicted today upon you.
I'm off to get stoned and go for a swim in the river.
posted by flabdablet at 11:40 PM on November 5 [76 favorites]
The story that needs to be widely understood is this:
Worldwide, unprecedented amounts of government money got handed out very suddenly during the pre-vaccination phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a completely justifiable attempt to limit the number of ordinary people becoming destitute. This was humane and appropriate policy, and governments that did more of it caused their nations much less suffering than governments that did less.
However, that massive transfer of wealth from government hands to private hands rapidly worked its way through the world's economies and ended up, via the usual channels, in the bank accounts of the already wealthy, who became even more so - again, at an unprecedented rate.
Those people, already having more totally passive income than they could possibly spend on anything they actually need even if given hundreds of lifetimes to do so, have now spent their unthinkably large COVID windfall on acquiring even more of the assets formerly owned by the middle classes. That additional demand for assets from the wealthy has rapidly increased the prices of assets generally, which has led to correspondingly rapid increases in the rents charged to non-owners for the use of those assets.
That sudden huge across-the-board rent increase, coupled with supply chain issues caused directly by the pandemic's effects on the workforce, caused a huge spike in inflation. Reserve banks across the world have reacted to that in the only way that their enabling legislation allows them to, by jacking up interest rates to "cool" their economies. This has worked in the past, inflation being a symptom of the existence of more demand within an economy than it can match with supply. But it's been much less effective and therefore much more protracted this time around, because the demand increase that drove this inflationary spike was driven by a very small segment of society that was already massively cashed up, and whose spending patterns are therefore far less affected by the price of loans. In fact, given that debt is also an asset, jacking up the price of money amounts to yet another income boost for the owners of debt, and guess who that is?
So ordinary people have seen across-the-board price rises coming at them from every conceivable direction, and given that most voters are low-information voters when it comes to either politics or macroeconomics, the predictable and predicted result has been massive unpopularity for incumbent governments as folks look for somebody to blame.
The message that needs to be widely understood is this:
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
But until every voter in every democracy is yelling that message at the ruling classes, there's about as much chance of any of them acting on it as there is of Palestinians being widely thought of as ordinary human beings.
I have learned enough about the value that human beings put on wilful ignorance to expect neither of these things to happen in my remaining lifetime. I have also long had enough faith in American racism and misogyny to be completely unsurprised by today's result; anybody who knows me face to face will have heard me predicting it with a weird combination of confidence and pants-shitting fear since October last year.
Then again, I'm also That Guy who has been yammering on about the inevitability of widespread social collapse as human overgrowth continues to crush and crowd out everything else for the last forty years, and who chose not to reproduce on that basis, so I'm probably not the oracle you're looking for at this point.
As for what to do next: I can't think of anything more constructive than nurturing your local kids. Do your best to show them how and why not to grow up into the fuckwits who inflicted today upon you.
I'm off to get stoned and go for a swim in the river.
posted by flabdablet at 11:40 PM on November 5 [76 favorites]
Did not expect, as we close out 2024, that the shining and radical beacon of democracy in the western world would be Keir Starmer.
posted by Wordshore at 11:40 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 11:40 PM on November 5 [17 favorites]
My daughter is 14 and she's away at school. We talk to her everyday and she and her classmates (all girls school) are upset about this but I think the best way to talk to kids and young adults is not to give them the answers but to admit you don't know and you have your own fears and concerns. Ask them about how this news makes them feel, does it make them feel mad or anxious or something else. Don't minimize those fears or concerns or anxieties by telling them some story about how this will somehow work out but allow them to express their own emotions. By allowing them the room to express big emotions and maybe just backing them away from a doom spiral if they are prone to that I think you give them room to process this news in a way that works for them.
The problems of a nation are hard for a youth or even young adult to fully process so it can also be useful to encourage them to talk about what they can do at a local level if this outcome was something they didn't want to happen. But let them have their big emotions first before providing your solutions.
posted by vuron at 11:43 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
The problems of a nation are hard for a youth or even young adult to fully process so it can also be useful to encourage them to talk about what they can do at a local level if this outcome was something they didn't want to happen. But let them have their big emotions first before providing your solutions.
posted by vuron at 11:43 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
I am fucking TIRED everyone blaming the left. Oh was Kamala supposed to speak word salad? Would that have helped? You think if she spoke about windmill cancer and people eating dogs and cats that would have changed the vote.
It's the misogyny and the racism. And blaming her for not knowing how to "speak to the people" when so many people embraced her is bullshit.
posted by miss-lapin at 11:43 PM on November 5 [85 favorites]
It's the misogyny and the racism. And blaming her for not knowing how to "speak to the people" when so many people embraced her is bullshit.
posted by miss-lapin at 11:43 PM on November 5 [85 favorites]
Maybe the electorate shouldn’t in 2022 have given the House to the GOP, where the O stands for Obstruction. The fuxk they expect to happen 2023-2024?
posted by torokunai at 11:44 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 11:44 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
Did not expect, as we close out 2024, that the shining and radical beacon of democracy in the western world would be Keir Starmer.
Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula erasure
posted by Apocryphon at 11:45 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula erasure
posted by Apocryphon at 11:45 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
...locally, it might well get very grim in certain corners of the US - the media, anyone who isn't white and 'male,' and anyone who someone decides is an 'immigrant.' (Will he really be a dictator on day one? Will he really deport what was it 20 million people right away? And women, generally?)
But I live non-locally and my bigger concern is what reverberations this will have in my locality: no more NATO? No more aide for Ukraine?
I don't see any upside here. (and it grinds my gears that Musk and Besos called it correctly.)
posted by From Bklyn at 11:48 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
But I live non-locally and my bigger concern is what reverberations this will have in my locality: no more NATO? No more aide for Ukraine?
I don't see any upside here. (and it grinds my gears that Musk and Besos called it correctly.)
posted by From Bklyn at 11:48 PM on November 5 [4 favorites]
I suspect that mefites generally tend to underestimate how misinformed people are, and how much of that is built into the system. There's plenty of people who are affirmatively terrible out there, but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on.
This. The economy and this. Most people don't watch the news or read about issues from fact-checked sources these days. They're spreading "facts" by word of mouth, and they are treating pundits, YouTube personalities, and random videos and memes on X and other media as equivalent to major media organizations which, while corporate and concentrated, do usually have primary reporting (on the ground), fact-checkers, editors, and ombudsmen. Many also don't see the world in terms of facts and ideas and logic; that's not a diss, it's perfectly natural to prioritize instincts and relationships in many cases. But it does mean that you can't say "here is some more climate data" or "actually, look at this graph on the economy" and get them to change sides.
So I think that we do a lot here where we consider ourselves more rational than the average Joe (probably true) and we want the world to be like debating here, or in a school debate where some impartial judge declares which side is right. Spoiler: there is no such judge in the real meat space America. At this point the courts, fact-based media, politicians, religious groups, and about any other putative authority is nosediving into the Fascism Sea or Ignorance Bay. I don't know what comes next.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:50 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
This. The economy and this. Most people don't watch the news or read about issues from fact-checked sources these days. They're spreading "facts" by word of mouth, and they are treating pundits, YouTube personalities, and random videos and memes on X and other media as equivalent to major media organizations which, while corporate and concentrated, do usually have primary reporting (on the ground), fact-checkers, editors, and ombudsmen. Many also don't see the world in terms of facts and ideas and logic; that's not a diss, it's perfectly natural to prioritize instincts and relationships in many cases. But it does mean that you can't say "here is some more climate data" or "actually, look at this graph on the economy" and get them to change sides.
So I think that we do a lot here where we consider ourselves more rational than the average Joe (probably true) and we want the world to be like debating here, or in a school debate where some impartial judge declares which side is right. Spoiler: there is no such judge in the real meat space America. At this point the courts, fact-based media, politicians, religious groups, and about any other putative authority is nosediving into the Fascism Sea or Ignorance Bay. I don't know what comes next.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:50 PM on November 5 [23 favorites]
Musk just tweeted out that "You are the media now" so it's going to only get worse in terms of "facts." And AI is going to compound things.
Going to step away so I can focus on how NJPW is really going to run Shota Umino vs ZSJ at Wrestle Kingdom.
Take care everyone.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:54 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
Going to step away so I can focus on how NJPW is really going to run Shota Umino vs ZSJ at Wrestle Kingdom.
Take care everyone.
posted by LostInUbe at 11:54 PM on November 5 [9 favorites]
I suppose it's just left to the EU to step up now. Canada & Australia aren't first tier power centres.
posted by Marticus at 11:55 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 11:55 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]
If you are looking for blame, it goes to the party elders and Joe Biden. They should not have hidden his condition and he should have honored his pledge to be a 1 term president. If he had stepped aside earlier and the cover up had not given him cover, the Dems could have had a primary season that found a candidate who could stand the fire. Harris was put into an unfair role. Not her fault although I think if she had admitted that she would have done a few things differently the results might have been different/closer. This is Pelosi and Schumer's fault. The oldsters did not listen to the next generation
The only thing you can do now is hope he doesn't use his mandate to get revenge. And, start tomorrow to find the path to 2028.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 11:59 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
The only thing you can do now is hope he doesn't use his mandate to get revenge. And, start tomorrow to find the path to 2028.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 11:59 PM on November 5 [16 favorites]
well then.
we've had some fun, eh? I've been posting here ages and ages and seen some ups and downs. I've usually enjoyed all the different takes, people feeling hot and feeling sad, writing out their screeds or blasting out their feelings.
this time though - I'm not ok with any of it.
stay safe out there
posted by zenon at 12:01 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
we've had some fun, eh? I've been posting here ages and ages and seen some ups and downs. I've usually enjoyed all the different takes, people feeling hot and feeling sad, writing out their screeds or blasting out their feelings.
this time though - I'm not ok with any of it.
stay safe out there
posted by zenon at 12:01 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
There will, I am sure, be a lot of after-action analysis and general armchair quarterbacking, because that's what the Democratic Party does, and it will be interesting to see how some of the numbers really shake out. (I am personally very confused by the idea of a large stealth bloc of "Latinos for Trump" or "Black Men for Trump", but I suppose weirder things have happened.)
I'm fundamentally an optimist in that I don't think Harris was doomed on the basis of being non-White and female. It probably cost her a percentage point or two, and I'd bet somewhere there are (or soon will be) models that can nail the number down pretty finely, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the margins at work inside the key demographics.
IMO, Team Harris ran a philosophical, principles-focused campaign and probably got all the principles-based voters they were going to get to the polls, even with Trump as the threat for not showing. The idea that there's a giant reserve of would-be voters on the far left who wouldn't show up for Harris, but would vote for some mythical far-left candidate, seems like an utter fantasy.
What it seems much more likely happened is a combination of two things: (1) there are a shitload of voters in the US who do not fucking care about principles, but really fucking care about price inflation; and (2) they are not especially picky about the reasonableness or plausibility of any proposed solution, as long as it will make Regular Unleaded cheap again.
That's a tough thing to counter, if you have allowed yourself to become hemmed-in by ideological constructs like "objective reality" or "casually starting ethnic pogroms for short-term political gain is wrong", which the voting public seem at best ambivalent about.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:01 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]
I'm fundamentally an optimist in that I don't think Harris was doomed on the basis of being non-White and female. It probably cost her a percentage point or two, and I'd bet somewhere there are (or soon will be) models that can nail the number down pretty finely, but it doesn't look like that's going to be the margins at work inside the key demographics.
IMO, Team Harris ran a philosophical, principles-focused campaign and probably got all the principles-based voters they were going to get to the polls, even with Trump as the threat for not showing. The idea that there's a giant reserve of would-be voters on the far left who wouldn't show up for Harris, but would vote for some mythical far-left candidate, seems like an utter fantasy.
What it seems much more likely happened is a combination of two things: (1) there are a shitload of voters in the US who do not fucking care about principles, but really fucking care about price inflation; and (2) they are not especially picky about the reasonableness or plausibility of any proposed solution, as long as it will make Regular Unleaded cheap again.
That's a tough thing to counter, if you have allowed yourself to become hemmed-in by ideological constructs like "objective reality" or "casually starting ethnic pogroms for short-term political gain is wrong", which the voting public seem at best ambivalent about.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:01 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]
but there are also a lot of people who just don't have the tools to think carefully about what is going on.
Theres definitely a shortage of understanding about this here. MeFi is built on thinking about things and reading more, learning things you didn’t know and sharing what you do know. That’s not how the world works for 90% of US citizens. I’m sorry if this sounds harsh but how many people are in shopping stores every day that can’t understand how to check a price or put something back where they got it from. The majority of people in the US are not capable or not willing to figure things we call basic and common sense.
posted by JakeEXTREME at 12:02 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Theres definitely a shortage of understanding about this here. MeFi is built on thinking about things and reading more, learning things you didn’t know and sharing what you do know. That’s not how the world works for 90% of US citizens. I’m sorry if this sounds harsh but how many people are in shopping stores every day that can’t understand how to check a price or put something back where they got it from. The majority of people in the US are not capable or not willing to figure things we call basic and common sense.
posted by JakeEXTREME at 12:02 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Oh, America. What have you done?
posted by Paul Slade at 12:04 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 12:04 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
Canada & Australia aren't first tier power centres.
Depends on how many of you move here, I guess.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:06 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Depends on how many of you move here, I guess.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:06 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I am personally very confused by the idea of a large stealth bloc of "Latinos for Trump" or "Black Men for Trump", but I suppose weirder things have happened.
1. idk if that's the cause of their votes, but as I always say on MeFi, "oppression can be intersectional, just as the oppressed are."
It's not like bigotry or prejudice are gone, far from it. But I think that as the country gets increasingly diverse, even oppression itself has to adapt to diverse audiences. Divide-and-conquer, oldest trick in the book.
2. On the flip side... I've also always suspected that Trump has gotten as far as he has because that he's ultimately of the class of American saints/gods besides veterans and firemen: he's a celebrity. He's an entertainer. He's on TV. People who are on TV and stay on TV (never mind the cancellation of The Apprentice) aren't actually racist. They aren't really dangerous. Otherwise, why are they allowed to be on TV? I think that his long-standing public persona and the fact that his ridiculous mannerisms gives him a sense of safety, even unconscious. "Oh, he doesn't mean that."
I figure the buffoonery aspect also explains Boris Johnson and the Ford brothers. Berlusconi as well. Heck, maybe even as far back as Mussolini?
posted by Apocryphon at 12:09 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
1. idk if that's the cause of their votes, but as I always say on MeFi, "oppression can be intersectional, just as the oppressed are."
It's not like bigotry or prejudice are gone, far from it. But I think that as the country gets increasingly diverse, even oppression itself has to adapt to diverse audiences. Divide-and-conquer, oldest trick in the book.
2. On the flip side... I've also always suspected that Trump has gotten as far as he has because that he's ultimately of the class of American saints/gods besides veterans and firemen: he's a celebrity. He's an entertainer. He's on TV. People who are on TV and stay on TV (never mind the cancellation of The Apprentice) aren't actually racist. They aren't really dangerous. Otherwise, why are they allowed to be on TV? I think that his long-standing public persona and the fact that his ridiculous mannerisms gives him a sense of safety, even unconscious. "Oh, he doesn't mean that."
I figure the buffoonery aspect also explains Boris Johnson and the Ford brothers. Berlusconi as well. Heck, maybe even as far back as Mussolini?
posted by Apocryphon at 12:09 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
The banal answer is probably something along the lines of the western democracies embraced austerity and bailing out the banks after the Great Recession rather than social democracy or Keynesian relief or anything like that. And then they doubled-down on similar policies during the pandemic
The US did not do austerity during the pandemic. Or after, though I guess we did bail out a few banks. That we have been less austere than others is likely a reason we have recovered better than many others. Unfortunately “the economy is pretty good compared to everywhere else, and it’s looking like we may kind of pull off a miracle as far as preventing it from getting much worse before it gets better again” seems to be a hard message to sell.
posted by atoxyl at 12:11 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
The US did not do austerity during the pandemic. Or after, though I guess we did bail out a few banks. That we have been less austere than others is likely a reason we have recovered better than many others. Unfortunately “the economy is pretty good compared to everywhere else, and it’s looking like we may kind of pull off a miracle as far as preventing it from getting much worse before it gets better again” seems to be a hard message to sell.
posted by atoxyl at 12:11 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Isn't Canada about to boot Trudeau after nine years of pretty boy centrist liberal fecklessness? The lamps are going out all over.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:11 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:11 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Web Developer (NOC 21234)
Registered Nurse (RN) (NOC 31301)
Mechanical Engineer (NOC 21301)
HR Manager (NOC 10011)
Accountant/Bookkeeper (11100)
Biomedical Engineer (NOC 21399)
Welder (NOC 72106)
Business Systems Analyst (21221)
https://immigration.ca/top-8-most-in-demand-canada-jobs-for-skilled-foreign-workers/
If you need more education to go into one of these fields, try to get it from a Canadian school since having gone to school in Canada is worth more points.
posted by Jacqueline at 12:12 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I’m 39. My mother is 66. I now expect it will be at least another 12 years before either party picks a female candidate, but likely 20 or more years.
I feel I’ve let down my mother. She wanted to see a female president. We’ve failed our mothers and our daughters.
What a sad night.
Onward tomorrow into our embarrassing future.
posted by samthemander at 12:13 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
I feel I’ve let down my mother. She wanted to see a female president. We’ve failed our mothers and our daughters.
What a sad night.
Onward tomorrow into our embarrassing future.
posted by samthemander at 12:13 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
Well, in the midst of a sea of terrible news, here is a little good news from Missouri:
- Trump, new Republican Governor, Senator Josh Hawley, and etc (all the statewide races in this election) have all resoundingly won their elections, by margins ranging from 11% to 18%. The only mildly good news there is the Josh "Laughingstock" Hawley was at the bottom end of that heap, winning by only an 11% margin. This was all exactly as expected.
- Despite that - and an astonishingly duplicitous antiabortion campaign - the constitutional amendment legalizing abortion passed by a solid 4% margin.
- And the Minimum Wage/Guaranteed Sick Leave proposal won by better than 15%.
Amendment 3, the constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to reproductive care, is really good, thorough, and well written. The idiot state legislators are going to have a hell of a time trying to hem it in with nonsensical restrictions, as they were able to with Roe v. Wade. I'm sure they could have won this closer to 60/40 if they had made concessions towards more restrictions & "oversight" but they gambled and won - we've gone from having one of the absolute most restrictive abortion regimens in the nation, to one of the most sweeping guarantees of access to reproductive health services, and pretty sweeping restrictions on state legislators from trying to nickle-and-dime it into meaninglessness.
Prop A raises the minimum wage from the current $12.30/hour to $15/hour in 2025. Afterwards it will be increased annually by the CPI. Also it guarantees 5-7 sick days annually for most employees, with guaranteed rollover to a certain amount of hours. $15/hr puts us towards the higher end of minimum wage rates of any state and Missouri has a pretty low cost of living, so when you put those two together it looks pretty good.
My only concern with Prop A is that it is simply a state statute that can be changed by the state legislature any time they can round up the votes. I would imagine this will be one of their top priorities in the upcoming legislative session.
Amendment 3 (Reproductive Rights) is much, much harder for the legislature to change. They can only propose a different amendment that will then be put to a statewide vote. I can only imagine they will be working on the best Poison Pill amendment they can come up with - it's been a successful tactic before.
In sum, it is nothing short of AMAZING to me how people can vote in one party with a resounding majority, and then vote in some of the most important policies that party opposes - by an equally resounding margin.
One of my pet theories is that these citizen referenda act as a sort of pressure release valve, allowing parties to stay on the warpath all the time about some of these divisive social issues, while protecting the electorate from feeling the worst effects that would happen if they were able to actually enact the policies they endlessly talk about.
If we actually had to live with the reality that the Republicans wish they could put into place, everyone would be pretty miserable and we would vote the bums out. But we can use a referendum to blunt the worst of their policies, allowing us to bumble along only moderately unhappy - and them to avoid the blame they otherwise would receive.
posted by flug at 12:15 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
- Trump, new Republican Governor, Senator Josh Hawley, and etc (all the statewide races in this election) have all resoundingly won their elections, by margins ranging from 11% to 18%. The only mildly good news there is the Josh "Laughingstock" Hawley was at the bottom end of that heap, winning by only an 11% margin. This was all exactly as expected.
- Despite that - and an astonishingly duplicitous antiabortion campaign - the constitutional amendment legalizing abortion passed by a solid 4% margin.
- And the Minimum Wage/Guaranteed Sick Leave proposal won by better than 15%.
Amendment 3, the constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to reproductive care, is really good, thorough, and well written. The idiot state legislators are going to have a hell of a time trying to hem it in with nonsensical restrictions, as they were able to with Roe v. Wade. I'm sure they could have won this closer to 60/40 if they had made concessions towards more restrictions & "oversight" but they gambled and won - we've gone from having one of the absolute most restrictive abortion regimens in the nation, to one of the most sweeping guarantees of access to reproductive health services, and pretty sweeping restrictions on state legislators from trying to nickle-and-dime it into meaninglessness.
Prop A raises the minimum wage from the current $12.30/hour to $15/hour in 2025. Afterwards it will be increased annually by the CPI. Also it guarantees 5-7 sick days annually for most employees, with guaranteed rollover to a certain amount of hours. $15/hr puts us towards the higher end of minimum wage rates of any state and Missouri has a pretty low cost of living, so when you put those two together it looks pretty good.
My only concern with Prop A is that it is simply a state statute that can be changed by the state legislature any time they can round up the votes. I would imagine this will be one of their top priorities in the upcoming legislative session.
Amendment 3 (Reproductive Rights) is much, much harder for the legislature to change. They can only propose a different amendment that will then be put to a statewide vote. I can only imagine they will be working on the best Poison Pill amendment they can come up with - it's been a successful tactic before.
In sum, it is nothing short of AMAZING to me how people can vote in one party with a resounding majority, and then vote in some of the most important policies that party opposes - by an equally resounding margin.
One of my pet theories is that these citizen referenda act as a sort of pressure release valve, allowing parties to stay on the warpath all the time about some of these divisive social issues, while protecting the electorate from feeling the worst effects that would happen if they were able to actually enact the policies they endlessly talk about.
If we actually had to live with the reality that the Republicans wish they could put into place, everyone would be pretty miserable and we would vote the bums out. But we can use a referendum to blunt the worst of their policies, allowing us to bumble along only moderately unhappy - and them to avoid the blame they otherwise would receive.
posted by flug at 12:15 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
I mourned deeply in 2016 following the election more for the future we lost than the reality we got despite how shitty 2016-2020 were collectively for not just the US but also the world. I feel mournful again for this future that I wanted to materialize but I think I am more prepared this time. Give yourself time to mourn for that lost future and if your mental wellness requires you to disengage for sometime then do so. You don't have to immediately brush yourself off and get back into the fight. The next 4 years will be a slog with plenty of stuff to fight so don't begrudge yourself some time to process this especially if you've been in a sustained period of existential dread leading up to today. It'll be hard for you to look out for others if you don't take care of your own mental wellbeing.
Hopefully we can avoid the reductionism that "america is just not ready for a female president" because that would be a really shitty "lesson" to tell to the upcoming generation. I feel like we did that after 2016 and there will be rush to do that again in 2024. Understanding whether or not the US is too sexist to elect a female president right now isn't worth reinforcing a message that over 50% of the population is somehow less justified in seeking the highest office. I'd really prefer not to poke holes in the dreams of some Gen Z or Gen Alpha young woman because we have to rationalize why a substantial % of the American electorate chose to re-elect a terrible president.
posted by vuron at 12:17 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Hopefully we can avoid the reductionism that "america is just not ready for a female president" because that would be a really shitty "lesson" to tell to the upcoming generation. I feel like we did that after 2016 and there will be rush to do that again in 2024. Understanding whether or not the US is too sexist to elect a female president right now isn't worth reinforcing a message that over 50% of the population is somehow less justified in seeking the highest office. I'd really prefer not to poke holes in the dreams of some Gen Z or Gen Alpha young woman because we have to rationalize why a substantial % of the American electorate chose to re-elect a terrible president.
posted by vuron at 12:17 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
My take would be that as much as we'd like voters to be voting on principles, for a lot of them it comes down to a vote for incumbency or anti-incumbency. If love to say that the Labour win here in Britain was down to people rejecting Tory hate, but it's more likely that they just thought the Tories were tired and we needed a change. Similarly, so many interviews I heard ahead of voting went something like, "I don't think Trump is a good person, but the past four years was tough and he's a change I guess?" Of course policies do matter and both you in the US and is here in the UK are in for a world of hurt for the next four years. The best we can hope for is that having given the world over to incompetent authoritarians, their incompetence and infighting get the better of them quickly and kill the reputation of this form of Republicanism for a generation. That's a pretty bleak hope, but it's what I'm holding onto this morning.
posted by nangua at 12:19 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by nangua at 12:19 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
> There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery.
meet your new masters of the universe...
-How Susquehanna's Jeff Yass mastered the options game[1,2]
-Ken Griffin's money machine: market maker Citadel Securities
-Why Elon Musk and His Silicon Valley Allies Now Want Trump to Win
posted by kliuless at 12:21 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
meet your new masters of the universe...
-How Susquehanna's Jeff Yass mastered the options game[1,2]
-Ken Griffin's money machine: market maker Citadel Securities
-Why Elon Musk and His Silicon Valley Allies Now Want Trump to Win
posted by kliuless at 12:21 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Racism is a powerful sentiment.
I just heard a well-off middle class guy from Georgia on the radio who explained he had voted for Trump because he was sure Trump could show force against our adversaries in Europe, The Middle East and in protecting Taiwan. Exactly the opposite of the real Trump. He also said that he was well aware that Trump has no economic strategy, and no relevant plans for improving the economy. His opinion was that the Harris plans were worse than the Trump not-plans. I'll call that racism.
(There was also something about this guy that reminded be of the British Leave voters -- like he had thought Harris would win, so he could put in a "protest" vote).
You can have all the opinions you want, but I'm going to ignore everyone who talks about the economy and the white working class. Not just because of this one guy, but because he embodied everything that is happening right now.
posted by mumimor at 12:23 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
I just heard a well-off middle class guy from Georgia on the radio who explained he had voted for Trump because he was sure Trump could show force against our adversaries in Europe, The Middle East and in protecting Taiwan. Exactly the opposite of the real Trump. He also said that he was well aware that Trump has no economic strategy, and no relevant plans for improving the economy. His opinion was that the Harris plans were worse than the Trump not-plans. I'll call that racism.
(There was also something about this guy that reminded be of the British Leave voters -- like he had thought Harris would win, so he could put in a "protest" vote).
You can have all the opinions you want, but I'm going to ignore everyone who talks about the economy and the white working class. Not just because of this one guy, but because he embodied everything that is happening right now.
posted by mumimor at 12:23 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
oh and from that last link...
Meet the Wall Street Bigwig Who Has Become Trump's Headhunter in Chief
posted by kliuless at 12:26 AM on November 6
Meet the Wall Street Bigwig Who Has Become Trump's Headhunter in Chief
posted by kliuless at 12:26 AM on November 6
Great Gig In The Sky Asteroid Strike always sums up my feelings in these moments.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:29 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 12:29 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
> If you are looking for blame, it goes to the party elders and Joe Biden. They should not have hidden his condition
If you look at the election results at the county level across the country, you see a pretty strong/solid shift red by that few percent pretty much everywhere - everywhere from TX & the Midwest east, anyway.
It is hard to imagine what words could have been said, or what campaign organization or get-out-the-vote effort could have been put together, that would counteract such a large and unidirectional wave.
People are mad.
(Now, they are mad mostly about aftereffects of Covid that were pretty much inevitable, and aftershocks of the first Trump presidency that were also inevitable - both of which Biden did what was humanly possible to clean up. But when people step into the voting booth, that doesn't matter. They are mad right now and so they vote out whoever is in office right now.)
So I am going to suggest we skip the self-recrimination and start moving ahead towards the next election. It is only two years away, and whatever asinine things Trump dreams up in the next two years is going to give us plenty of ammo to take the House and/or Senate back at that time, and hobble him up but good.
That is exactly what the Republicans do, and that is why they keep bouncing back and winning. We can do the same.
posted by flug at 12:29 AM on November 6 [51 favorites]
If you look at the election results at the county level across the country, you see a pretty strong/solid shift red by that few percent pretty much everywhere - everywhere from TX & the Midwest east, anyway.
It is hard to imagine what words could have been said, or what campaign organization or get-out-the-vote effort could have been put together, that would counteract such a large and unidirectional wave.
People are mad.
(Now, they are mad mostly about aftereffects of Covid that were pretty much inevitable, and aftershocks of the first Trump presidency that were also inevitable - both of which Biden did what was humanly possible to clean up. But when people step into the voting booth, that doesn't matter. They are mad right now and so they vote out whoever is in office right now.)
So I am going to suggest we skip the self-recrimination and start moving ahead towards the next election. It is only two years away, and whatever asinine things Trump dreams up in the next two years is going to give us plenty of ammo to take the House and/or Senate back at that time, and hobble him up but good.
That is exactly what the Republicans do, and that is why they keep bouncing back and winning. We can do the same.
posted by flug at 12:29 AM on November 6 [51 favorites]
Oh my god, I seriously don't believe this.
I'm so sorry, Americans.
And seriously, everyone who didn't vote Harris? Fuck you in Hell FOREVER.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:30 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]
I'm so sorry, Americans.
And seriously, everyone who didn't vote Harris? Fuck you in Hell FOREVER.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 12:30 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]
Bezos, Sulzberger, Soon-Shiong, McConnell, Graham et al. not looking quite so stupid now, are they? (sigh)
I guess for a lot of people, it really is like the Catch-22 Italian guy said, it's better to live on your feet than die on your knees. Just like winning is a value, so is self-preservation. Empathy is a nice-to-have, but only when it doesn't get in the way.
You know who the real winners were tonight? The beneficiaries of Citizens United. The campaign consultants and lawyers, and everybody selling political airtime. They just keep getting wealthier and wealthier. And they are certain to continue to play the game in a way that accelerates the campaign money 'arms race'.
posted by zaixfeep at 12:32 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I guess for a lot of people, it really is like the Catch-22 Italian guy said, it's better to live on your feet than die on your knees. Just like winning is a value, so is self-preservation. Empathy is a nice-to-have, but only when it doesn't get in the way.
You know who the real winners were tonight? The beneficiaries of Citizens United. The campaign consultants and lawyers, and everybody selling political airtime. They just keep getting wealthier and wealthier. And they are certain to continue to play the game in a way that accelerates the campaign money 'arms race'.
posted by zaixfeep at 12:32 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
when the "every incumbent party when inflation got bad this year got voted out" phenomenon hit Japan it was an eyebrow-raising "huh" but I gotta say it is a lot less exciting when it is applying to the US
posted by DoctorFedora at 12:32 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by DoctorFedora at 12:32 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
This will only embolden Musk to become even more insufferable
posted by Apocryphon at 12:33 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:33 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
start moving ahead towards the next election
We need to make sure that a next election is a certainty, and not a faux Russian-style, petro-state style one
Republicans have a still - yet-to-be-imagined by Dems broadly - zeal for power. "I feel" they're closing the clamp on that, or at least trying
posted by JoeXIII007 at 12:35 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
We need to make sure that a next election is a certainty, and not a faux Russian-style, petro-state style one
Republicans have a still - yet-to-be-imagined by Dems broadly - zeal for power. "I feel" they're closing the clamp on that, or at least trying
posted by JoeXIII007 at 12:35 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
"And I'm laying out my winter clothes and wishing I was gone
Goin' home
Where the New York City winters aren't bleeding me
Leading me
Going home..."
Simon and Garfunkel. (Now elderly songwriters who were big in the 1970s)
As a UK expat in NY on this doleful dawn, I think Margaret Thatcher "British Conservative Party politician and prime minister (1979–90), Europe's first woman prime minister..." probably deserves a mention.
She wasn't remotely my cup of tea. But she was a successful female politician.
posted by Jody Tresidder at 12:37 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Goin' home
Where the New York City winters aren't bleeding me
Leading me
Going home..."
Simon and Garfunkel. (Now elderly songwriters who were big in the 1970s)
As a UK expat in NY on this doleful dawn, I think Margaret Thatcher "British Conservative Party politician and prime minister (1979–90), Europe's first woman prime minister..." probably deserves a mention.
She wasn't remotely my cup of tea. But she was a successful female politician.
posted by Jody Tresidder at 12:37 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Her success led us to this mess
posted by Apocryphon at 12:38 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:38 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
My results. Two good local candidates lost to crappy GOPers. 2 are still pending, 1 lost but to a non-horrible GOPer. One really terrific local candidate won in a tough race.
I’m really tired; this is a difficult night. For, you know, everybody.
posted by theora55 at 12:38 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I’m really tired; this is a difficult night. For, you know, everybody.
posted by theora55 at 12:38 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I'm sad and exhausted and afraid. And feeling very lonely tonight. That's all I got.
posted by humbug at 12:39 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
posted by humbug at 12:39 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
*heavy sigh*
posted by Ms. Moonlight at 12:41 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Ms. Moonlight at 12:41 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I told all of you he was going to win. Ever since the Butler assassination attempt in July, I have thought: this is Trump's year. I never bought into the Harris hype. She is a truly weak candidate. And I think the Democratic party knew it from the start. I don't think she failed to pick Josh Shapiro for instance. I think he turned her down because he knew she wouldn't win.
Trump is track to win a true mandate, including the popular vote. Harris ollapsed across the entire board.
And they've updated Grover Cleveland's Wikipedia page :
Cleveland won the electoral college in 1892, making Cleveland the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive presidential terms.
posted by fortitude25 at 12:42 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Trump is track to win a true mandate, including the popular vote. Harris ollapsed across the entire board.
And they've updated Grover Cleveland's Wikipedia page :
Cleveland won the electoral college in 1892, making Cleveland the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive presidential terms.
posted by fortitude25 at 12:42 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Well, the "good" news is, the only reason you would need to vote ever again is symbolism/denial.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:42 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:42 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
> I'm sad and exhausted and afraid. And feeling very lonely tonight. That's all I got.Hugs?
posted by runcifex at 12:43 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Yep, it would've been nice not to have to play defense for the next 4 years but short of nuking the filibuster which I don't think Republicans will be willing to do just to lock in 2 years worth of gains I think even with a trifecta they are going to be somewhat constrained in their ability to get shit done because their caucus is a clownboat and no rational republican senator is going to want to run in 2026 if they nuke the filibuster and push through some egregious shit. Does that mean they absolutely won't push through some trash? No, but you can't use your office for self-enrichment if you pass a ton of really unpopular shit or nuke the economy.
Yes Trump will be able to replace Thomas and Alito with younger idiots which is going to suck but I think they know that in order to keep the SCOTUS at 9 members they can't nuke the filibuster because getting rid of it just enables Democrats so say fuck it and courtpack when the inevitable pendulum swing results in Republicans losing Congress and the Presidency.
Rather than being a polyanna viewpoint I think this is rooted in cynicism about why some people seek out positions like Senator. The House has true believers and while there are some mouthbreathing idiots like Tuberville in the Senate I think a large % of the current senate see maintaining the status quo as being ultimately beneficial for maintaining their personal power. I think even they realize that ACA has been in place long enough that fucking with it puts them at risk of a massive electoral backlash in 2026 for instance.
Same with a national abortion ban. People are willing to overlook Gilead experiments in Texas and Florida but I think they know after the various ballot initiatives that even in deeply conservative states continuing to agressively push for more restrictions is not a winning srategy in the long run. The horrors of what keeps happening in Texas and other states with excessive restrictions is not something someone in a vulnerable district or state wants to justify.
Of course they could just say fuck it and try to push through a bunch of really unpopular shit but I think that gets in the way of pushing their more general antiregulatory agenda.
posted by vuron at 12:51 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Yes Trump will be able to replace Thomas and Alito with younger idiots which is going to suck but I think they know that in order to keep the SCOTUS at 9 members they can't nuke the filibuster because getting rid of it just enables Democrats so say fuck it and courtpack when the inevitable pendulum swing results in Republicans losing Congress and the Presidency.
Rather than being a polyanna viewpoint I think this is rooted in cynicism about why some people seek out positions like Senator. The House has true believers and while there are some mouthbreathing idiots like Tuberville in the Senate I think a large % of the current senate see maintaining the status quo as being ultimately beneficial for maintaining their personal power. I think even they realize that ACA has been in place long enough that fucking with it puts them at risk of a massive electoral backlash in 2026 for instance.
Same with a national abortion ban. People are willing to overlook Gilead experiments in Texas and Florida but I think they know after the various ballot initiatives that even in deeply conservative states continuing to agressively push for more restrictions is not a winning srategy in the long run. The horrors of what keeps happening in Texas and other states with excessive restrictions is not something someone in a vulnerable district or state wants to justify.
Of course they could just say fuck it and try to push through a bunch of really unpopular shit but I think that gets in the way of pushing their more general antiregulatory agenda.
posted by vuron at 12:51 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Many, many hugs
posted by Fenriss at 12:56 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 12:56 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Well... Americans have decided conclusively that in response to global inflation brought on by a poor response to the pandemic and trade wars between the US and China, the only solution is to re-elect the man who spearheaded the poor US response to COVID and initiated the tariffs against China that started the trade war.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:58 AM on November 6 [40 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:58 AM on November 6 [40 favorites]
>Of course they could just say fuck it and try to push through a bunch of really unpopular shit but I think that gets in the way of pushing their more general antiregulatory agenda.
The fact that Trump openly says that he intends to dig and burn a lot of oil is both probably popular (short term cheaper prices) and the externalities of that aren't front loaded. It is, however, civilizationally catastopic.
posted by jaduncan at 12:58 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
The fact that Trump openly says that he intends to dig and burn a lot of oil is both probably popular (short term cheaper prices) and the externalities of that aren't front loaded. It is, however, civilizationally catastopic.
posted by jaduncan at 12:58 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Look, I'm user 216 around here and I haven't been here much for years but I will be now. Not time to give up. Time for mutual aid.
posted by Fenriss at 12:58 AM on November 6 [75 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 12:58 AM on November 6 [75 favorites]
Yep, it would've been nice not to have to play defense for the next 4 years but short of nuking the filibuster which I don't think Republicans will be willing to do just to lock in 2 years worth of gains I think even with a trifecta they are going to be somewhat constrained in their ability to get shit done
Half the problem is not what Republicans could do, it’s what we as a country desperately NEED to do that won’t get done. We are lurching toward multifaceted crises in the environment, the economy, and international relations. The Republican strategy for all of these things is to abdicate any responsibility over them and install a civil service that will simply ignore reality and present numbers to the public that make them look good.
posted by Room 101 at 12:59 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
Half the problem is not what Republicans could do, it’s what we as a country desperately NEED to do that won’t get done. We are lurching toward multifaceted crises in the environment, the economy, and international relations. The Republican strategy for all of these things is to abdicate any responsibility over them and install a civil service that will simply ignore reality and present numbers to the public that make them look good.
posted by Room 101 at 12:59 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
We rally. We feed each other and we organize.
posted by Fenriss at 1:01 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 1:01 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
What a fucking nightmare. Too many people are just too fucking stupid! I don't wanna hear another masturbatory analysis from so called experts that ignores that obvious simple truth. Oh let's write more books about the dangers of rising fascism everywhere, ponder all the causes and conditions, spend thousands millions of words to overthink what a child could tell you, what's staring us in the face and not just in the US. Too many people are just too fucking stupid and if you feed them enough of a combination of disinformation, cult of personality, religious fundamentalism, racism and misogyny, they will fucking swallow it whole and beg for more. It's the stupidity, stupid.
Sorry but I'm furious, such a fucking disappointment, I was hoping for once stupidity could lose but no, it never does
posted by bitteschoen at 1:02 AM on November 6 [60 favorites]
Sorry but I'm furious, such a fucking disappointment, I was hoping for once stupidity could lose but no, it never does
posted by bitteschoen at 1:02 AM on November 6 [60 favorites]
We didn't just lose in a way that will sour the next four years. We lost in a way/at a time where the opposition plans to rewrite the laws and government to make their gains permanent.
We're going to be the bigger version of Hungary now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:02 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
We're going to be the bigger version of Hungary now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:02 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
I am so afraid. What's the point, man.
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:08 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:08 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
What the hell?!
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:09 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:09 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Tomorrow morning, the presumptive next president of the United States is going to go on live TV and speak 45-85 minutes of demented, racist, sexist gibberish.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:14 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:14 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I want to know which of my friends and coworkers did a "vote of good conscience" so I can move them out of my life. I care deeply about Israel/Palestine. So deeply, in fact, that I am waking up daily and praying about it. But I voted for Harris because certain things have to be done in sequence in order for change to occur. This is bad change. Bad. How fucking dare they.
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:19 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]
posted by The Adventure Begins at 1:19 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]
The idea that there's a giant reserve of would-be voters on the far left who wouldn't show up for Harris, but would vote for some mythical far-left candidate, seems like an utter fantasy.
Looking at the size of the voting gap, much as I wish it were otherwise, I would agree. Even if you add all the Harris votes *and* all the protest/leftist votes, you’re *still* about a percentage point short in the battleground states. Trump won Pennsylvania and Georgia by 50.8%. The leftists couldn’t have saved this. Even if Harris had turned on Gaza, it wouldn’t have gotten her two full percentage points of the vote. This was an election that turned on economic issues.
Some of us have been ringing the alarm bell for a while about how angry people are about how this economy is working *for them*. Someone said upthread, very accurately, that the Democrats this year offered small c conservativism, rather than fighting populism with populism. This would have been the year to talk price controls, to lower gas taxes and find other ways of paying for environmental initiatives. Maybe going after corporations. But it didn’t happen. And angry people went to the polls and voted for fascism. Because that’s what they do when they don’t have a real socialist option as an alternative.
posted by corb at 1:20 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
Looking at the size of the voting gap, much as I wish it were otherwise, I would agree. Even if you add all the Harris votes *and* all the protest/leftist votes, you’re *still* about a percentage point short in the battleground states. Trump won Pennsylvania and Georgia by 50.8%. The leftists couldn’t have saved this. Even if Harris had turned on Gaza, it wouldn’t have gotten her two full percentage points of the vote. This was an election that turned on economic issues.
Some of us have been ringing the alarm bell for a while about how angry people are about how this economy is working *for them*. Someone said upthread, very accurately, that the Democrats this year offered small c conservativism, rather than fighting populism with populism. This would have been the year to talk price controls, to lower gas taxes and find other ways of paying for environmental initiatives. Maybe going after corporations. But it didn’t happen. And angry people went to the polls and voted for fascism. Because that’s what they do when they don’t have a real socialist option as an alternative.
posted by corb at 1:20 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
Maybe the only "good" news is that protest votes against Harris last because of the Biden administration's failings on Gaza do not seem to have been the deciding factor.
Trump won by wider margins than that would have accounted for.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:21 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Trump won by wider margins than that would have accounted for.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:21 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
The Republican strategy for all of these things is to abdicate any responsibility over them and install a civil service that will simply ignore reality and present numbers to the public that make them look good.
Yes, his is one of the things that makes me so anxious. This time around, the hard right will be ready from day one to utterly destroy the civil service from within; they have been preparing since the end of Trump’s first term, and it’s all set out in Project 2025 and Agenda 47. A big swathe of the federal civil service will be replaced by hard right, completely unqualified minions, and they will be a cancer that will be incredibly difficult to cure. The civil service will be politicized and trust will deteriorate in a way that will be hard to recover from.
posted by odin53 at 1:21 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
Yes, his is one of the things that makes me so anxious. This time around, the hard right will be ready from day one to utterly destroy the civil service from within; they have been preparing since the end of Trump’s first term, and it’s all set out in Project 2025 and Agenda 47. A big swathe of the federal civil service will be replaced by hard right, completely unqualified minions, and they will be a cancer that will be incredibly difficult to cure. The civil service will be politicized and trust will deteriorate in a way that will be hard to recover from.
posted by odin53 at 1:21 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
So wait, do leftists' votes matter or not? I'm confused. Let's pick one and stick with it.
posted by ftrtts at 1:23 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by ftrtts at 1:23 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Among the blame we're piling on the Democratic Party needs to be the years of gaslighting we were subjected to about the state of Biden's health. We were denied a proper primary process this year, which would have been the opportunity to test balloon messaging and policy proposals, as well as giving the candidate a stronger mandate, being selected in a democratic process. I thought Harris was ultimately a fine mainstream candidate, but the lack of vision she was able to communicate would have, I imagine, been remedied if she'd had to start making her case in February rather than July.
posted by St. Oops at 1:24 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 1:24 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
So wait, do leftists' votes matter or not? I'm confused. Let's pick one and stick with it.
Dipshits' voted mattered. That was all, really.
The election seems to have been decided not by true believers from either side, but by the kind of people who awake from a current events coma every four years to flip the switch between D & R based on their current satisfaction with their current income/costs.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:24 AM on November 6 [48 favorites]
Dipshits' voted mattered. That was all, really.
The election seems to have been decided not by true believers from either side, but by the kind of people who awake from a current events coma every four years to flip the switch between D & R based on their current satisfaction with their current income/costs.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:24 AM on November 6 [48 favorites]
>A big swathe of the federal civil service will be replaced by hard right, completely unqualified minions
Heritage staffed the Coalition Provisional Authority too, which is why it went so great for us 2003-2006.
posted by torokunai at 1:26 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Heritage staffed the Coalition Provisional Authority too, which is why it went so great for us 2003-2006.
posted by torokunai at 1:26 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
You can have all the opinions you want, but I'm going to ignore everyone who talks about the economy and the white working class.
As a white member of the working class myself, I'm not going to pretend there aren't too damn many Trump supporters in my tribe (and any number is too goddamn many) but I also have vanishingly little patience with anyone whose first instinct is to scapegoat us for the bigotry, selfishness, spitefulness and shortsightedness that more properly can be laid at the feet of all sorts of white people up and down the socioeconomic ladder.
And, make no mistake, scapegoating is absolutely what the "economic anxiety" wheeze is really about.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:26 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
As a white member of the working class myself, I'm not going to pretend there aren't too damn many Trump supporters in my tribe (and any number is too goddamn many) but I also have vanishingly little patience with anyone whose first instinct is to scapegoat us for the bigotry, selfishness, spitefulness and shortsightedness that more properly can be laid at the feet of all sorts of white people up and down the socioeconomic ladder.
And, make no mistake, scapegoating is absolutely what the "economic anxiety" wheeze is really about.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:26 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I need to write this somewhere, and it may as well be here where I've been present and accounted for during many past elections and world events :
This fucking hurts.
Y'all go ahead and argue about who dropped what ball and how and where and all that. But I just ... don't have enough gin to soothe how much this fucking hurts, and how much fighting we'll need to do for these next (at fucking least) four years.
We could've and should've been done with this fucking clown so long ago, and now we'll have to hear his incessant yammering for god knows how long and it's just too much to process right now.
posted by revmitcz at 1:27 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
This fucking hurts.
Y'all go ahead and argue about who dropped what ball and how and where and all that. But I just ... don't have enough gin to soothe how much this fucking hurts, and how much fighting we'll need to do for these next (at fucking least) four years.
We could've and should've been done with this fucking clown so long ago, and now we'll have to hear his incessant yammering for god knows how long and it's just too much to process right now.
posted by revmitcz at 1:27 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
My heart hurts for you all. Sending hugs and hope and strength.
posted by Nieshka at 1:28 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by Nieshka at 1:28 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
"[Margaret Thatcher's] success led us to this mess'
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
posted by Jody Tresidder at 1:29 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
posted by Jody Tresidder at 1:29 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
This sucks but America will survive. I have a feeling Trump is going to last about a year before his masters yank him out. The press is now going to put him under a microscope to sell ink. He's going to do and say some truly insane shit and, as was probably the plan all along, they will 25th him and put Vance in. Buckle up for the most embarrassing, insane shit you have ever seen. And give absolutely no quarter to all the high profile people who supported this man for the rest of their lives. You bought it, you own it. It is really amazing how many absolutely stupid people there are in this country who all just got hoodwinked by alternative facts.
posted by jasondigitized at 1:29 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 1:29 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Wow, do I have bad news for you if you think that Trump being 25th-ed and replaced with Vance would stop the madness.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:32 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:32 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]
Accusations are confessions. He preemptively accused the Democrats of "massive cheating". Very curious about what steps were taken by his coalition of voters, elected and appointed officials, billionaires, hate groups, and foreign powers, to bend the election towards this result.
posted by otherchaz at 1:33 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by otherchaz at 1:33 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This's what you wanted, right? Not what I wanted, not what any of *us* wanted, but this's what we collectively wanted, clearly. Not much that could've been done differently from what I can see at this moment; at least nothing that would've mattered in the electoral field. So... fuck it. I'll statistically be fine, those I love'll be fucked. But that's what we wanted. And there's nothing I could've done otherwise.
Hope you get what you wanted, good and hard. See those of you who's left on the other side.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:34 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Hope you get what you wanted, good and hard. See those of you who's left on the other side.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:34 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
If there is any good news, it's that nothing mattered. Not one fucking thing.
Trump could be convicted of crimes, found liable for sexual assault, shown to be consistently lying and revealed to be almost certainly demented and it didn't matter.
Harris could be called out for being part of an administration that was failing on Gaza and it didn't matter.
You could have spent months knocking on doors, making intelligent arguments to your friends and neighbors, and it didn't matter.
All that mattered was that the economy was seen as "definitely could be better" so the meatheads flipped from D to R.
Nothing else, not even the promised demolition of our existing Democracy, mattered.
Cereal costs too much, gas costs too much, rent costs too much, so the ruling party had to be changed.
That was it.
Nothing else mattered.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:42 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
Trump could be convicted of crimes, found liable for sexual assault, shown to be consistently lying and revealed to be almost certainly demented and it didn't matter.
Harris could be called out for being part of an administration that was failing on Gaza and it didn't matter.
You could have spent months knocking on doors, making intelligent arguments to your friends and neighbors, and it didn't matter.
All that mattered was that the economy was seen as "definitely could be better" so the meatheads flipped from D to R.
Nothing else, not even the promised demolition of our existing Democracy, mattered.
Cereal costs too much, gas costs too much, rent costs too much, so the ruling party had to be changed.
That was it.
Nothing else mattered.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:42 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
On another web forum, members are being encouraged to shave their beards into goatees to get into the spirit of this timeline.
posted by zaixfeep at 1:45 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by zaixfeep at 1:45 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Harris was fine it was a decent campaign, she would have been a good president.
It’s just, there are a lot more stupid people than you think there are, a lot more bigots, a lot more selfish people. Same everywhere. When the billionaires Jack up prices stupid people get even stupider. They have no time to think or energy to care. And they are angry, which makes them even stupider, bigoted, selfish.
A person can be smart, but people in aggregate are just mean spirited monkeys, hooting and throwing shit at things they don’t understand. Crocodiles have been around for 200 million years. They love to eat careless monkeys. Anyway all this fuss is just a blip between mass extinction events and oop, there’s one on the way now.
Going forward, I have to pet my cats. Do my exercise. Keep my house clean. Take care of myself and my people. Enforce boundaries that keep me safe and healthy.
This is probably going to happen in Canada too.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:45 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]
It’s just, there are a lot more stupid people than you think there are, a lot more bigots, a lot more selfish people. Same everywhere. When the billionaires Jack up prices stupid people get even stupider. They have no time to think or energy to care. And they are angry, which makes them even stupider, bigoted, selfish.
A person can be smart, but people in aggregate are just mean spirited monkeys, hooting and throwing shit at things they don’t understand. Crocodiles have been around for 200 million years. They love to eat careless monkeys. Anyway all this fuss is just a blip between mass extinction events and oop, there’s one on the way now.
Going forward, I have to pet my cats. Do my exercise. Keep my house clean. Take care of myself and my people. Enforce boundaries that keep me safe and healthy.
This is probably going to happen in Canada too.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:45 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]
I remember well the election night in 2016, where I started feeling physically ill.
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out. I bet there are a lot of calls like this... and also people *not* calling family members, dreading their votes.
Hard to write now between fear and exhaustion.
posted by doctornemo at 1:48 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out. I bet there are a lot of calls like this... and also people *not* calling family members, dreading their votes.
Hard to write now between fear and exhaustion.
posted by doctornemo at 1:48 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Fuck.
I’m bouncing between depressed and mad as hell. Why the hell can’t we get it right on this shit?!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:48 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I’m bouncing between depressed and mad as hell. Why the hell can’t we get it right on this shit?!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:48 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Well, you do have to give it to JD Vance who presumably had to work hard to convince his Indian wife that signing on with the insane, racist, anti-inmigrant man was a good idea. She's now 6-36 months away from being First Lady of the United States, so his gamble and her signing on for it, looks quite likely to pay off.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:50 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 1:50 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
"[Margaret Thatcher's] success led us to this mess'
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
I've long held that it's both Thatcherism and Reaganism. The proliferation of neoliberal economics, "user pays", small government, union busting, "trickle down" and everything else that gutted the working and middle classes and gave untold wealth to the elite.
Demagogues always surface when people are under economic stress and are angry as a result.
But the demagogues don't reform the system that created the structural imbalances, because they benefit from it.
Instead of course, it's convenient scapegoats instead of meaningful reform.
posted by UbuRoivas at 1:59 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon.
I believe it was a harbinger of "this mess"
I've long held that it's both Thatcherism and Reaganism. The proliferation of neoliberal economics, "user pays", small government, union busting, "trickle down" and everything else that gutted the working and middle classes and gave untold wealth to the elite.
Demagogues always surface when people are under economic stress and are angry as a result.
But the demagogues don't reform the system that created the structural imbalances, because they benefit from it.
Instead of course, it's convenient scapegoats instead of meaningful reform.
posted by UbuRoivas at 1:59 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
I'm gratified, sort of, that this is shaping up to be just a plain old... win. It doesn't look like protest votes were enough to matter anywhere.
Just... America picked Trump, plain and simple. Together and collectively we did this, we chose this, and we deserve everything that's coming.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:02 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Just... America picked Trump, plain and simple. Together and collectively we did this, we chose this, and we deserve everything that's coming.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:02 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
It was snowing hard here in Utah last night and my wife is traveling for work, so my two young kids and I fell asleep in our bed talking about supernovas and black holes and prehistoric animals and how awesomely huge the universe is. They fell asleep warm and safe and curious about how life works. We fell asleep before all this.
I don’t know what to tell them in the morning. They care about the environment and their friends, and they know enough about why their mom and dad were so scared of this result, and how it impacts the entire world. Will they notice I am taking signs down and removing stickers from the car because I genuinely fear gloating retribution will start here in a red state?
The snow has stopped and the stars are out. They get to be safe and warm and unaware for a few more hours. I hope they are dreaming about something wonderful. I hope i can find the right words to tell them in the morning.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:04 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
I don’t know what to tell them in the morning. They care about the environment and their friends, and they know enough about why their mom and dad were so scared of this result, and how it impacts the entire world. Will they notice I am taking signs down and removing stickers from the car because I genuinely fear gloating retribution will start here in a red state?
The snow has stopped and the stars are out. They get to be safe and warm and unaware for a few more hours. I hope they are dreaming about something wonderful. I hope i can find the right words to tell them in the morning.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:04 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
As of 0800 GMT, Associated Press still hasn't called the race because Harris still has a path to victory through Michigan and Wisconsin. Hi, my name is otherchaz and I am a hope-ium addict.
posted by otherchaz at 2:05 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
posted by otherchaz at 2:05 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
If a president can’t be prosecuted, exactly what stops Vance from pushing Trump down a flight of stairs come the end of January?
posted by MarchHare at 2:08 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
posted by MarchHare at 2:08 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
@otherchaz, Madison turnout blew away every previous record, if that helps at all.
Love to you. Love to all of us. It's all I have to give.
posted by humbug at 2:08 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Love to you. Love to all of us. It's all I have to give.
posted by humbug at 2:08 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Gods love you, otherchaz. Me too.
posted by Fenriss at 2:09 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by Fenriss at 2:09 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I think the part that is frustrating me at this particular minute, is that this means there is a 99.99% chance that the worst, most destructive rich asshole of our lifetimes will live out the rest of his days virtually free of meaningful comeuppance. He will go to his grave eating well-done steaks covered in ketchup and none of the shit he has done will ever blow back on him in any real way.
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:12 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:12 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
I commit here and now to purchasing otherchaz a drink of their choice via the magic of delivery services if their faith is rewarded and Harris pulls this off.
posted by corb at 2:12 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by corb at 2:12 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
I’m mad and depressed because there seemed to be several paths for Harris to win and they just all collapsed? What the fuck, how did it go so wrong?!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 2:15 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 2:15 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Uh, DirtyOldTown, he doesn't have loved ones.
Aside from the one in his own skin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:16 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Aside from the one in his own skin.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:16 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Fair. But "surrounded by sycophants and minions that he is satisfied love him" projects to be no less satisfying, so whatever.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:17 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:17 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I need to log off because this is all just too much. My heart breaks for America, and the word. And I will never, ever, forgive the people who had a chance to vote to stop this from happening, and squandered it. Traitors to humanity.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:18 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:18 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I will be so happy if Michigan and Wisconsin go for us. Thank you for the hopium, otherchaz!
posted by ichomp at 2:18 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 2:18 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
So has everyone made a plan for where they are fleeing?
We're going to Romania. It's not a progressive place but the economic dividing line where "if you have X amount of money, shit never sticks to you" is far, far lower. It will probably take three to five years to get there, even so. (Sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:20 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
We're going to Romania. It's not a progressive place but the economic dividing line where "if you have X amount of money, shit never sticks to you" is far, far lower. It will probably take three to five years to get there, even so. (Sigh)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:20 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
It's going to need more than that alas. Alaska has the 3 votes Trump needs, it's a solid red state and he's 15 points ahead in the count so far, and several have already called it for Trump already. Harris would need to win Alaska and all remaining swing states, which is still mathematically possible... but not exactly likely.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:22 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:22 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Canada & Australia aren't first tier power centres
And won't be much help in any case. I'm calling it now: the next Australian Government will be led by this Trumpian potato.
Misogyny is unlikely to be a factor unless Labor persuades Plibersek to run against her better judgement, but Australian racism and wilful ignorance is world class - certainly the equal of anything the US has to offer - and the COVID inflation bubble has affected us the same way it's affected everyone else. Those factors should be more than enough to get our local face eating leopards over the line.
posted by flabdablet at 2:32 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
And won't be much help in any case. I'm calling it now: the next Australian Government will be led by this Trumpian potato.
Misogyny is unlikely to be a factor unless Labor persuades Plibersek to run against her better judgement, but Australian racism and wilful ignorance is world class - certainly the equal of anything the US has to offer - and the COVID inflation bubble has affected us the same way it's affected everyone else. Those factors should be more than enough to get our local face eating leopards over the line.
posted by flabdablet at 2:32 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
It hurts, it hurts so much to see this, but we didn't make it easy for him last time and we won't make it easy for him this time either.
I slept horribly and won't get anything done today, but I'm going to try and get outside and remember that the world has not ended yet and I'm still alive to fight.
posted by Art_Pot at 2:32 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I slept horribly and won't get anything done today, but I'm going to try and get outside and remember that the world has not ended yet and I'm still alive to fight.
posted by Art_Pot at 2:32 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
... still and all - not all the votes have been counted.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:33 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 2:33 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
MSNBC has called Wisconsin and thus the election for Trump. God help us all.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
posted by bootlegpop at 2:34 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
posted by bootlegpop at 2:34 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
> Someone please just tell me how I’m supposed to explain this to my ten-year-old daughter when she wakes up in a few hours.
maybe octavia butler can help...
Parable of the Sower - "The newly elected radical, authoritarian President Donner loosens labor protections, creating a rise in company towns owned by foreign businesses."
"They have no power to improve their lives, but they have the power to make others... miserable."
Building Diverse Bookshelves
posted by kliuless at 2:34 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
maybe octavia butler can help...
Parable of the Sower - "The newly elected radical, authoritarian President Donner loosens labor protections, creating a rise in company towns owned by foreign businesses."
Building Diverse Bookshelves
While Lauren has rejected her Baptist pastor father’s faith in a personal God, she admires his unfaltering commitment to keeping those in their gated community safe. She learns from him, at an early age, that though not everyone may always get along, when it comes down to it, a community will work together to protect its members. And though while on her own, she is skeptical and wary of others, she displays a preternatural ability to locate and draw to her those who are good and hard-working and solid.Octavia Butler's Prescient Vision
Another theme that quickly emerges is the adverse effects of hierarchy and its perpetuation by those who benefit from it...
So much of the novel is a retelling and renaissance of a faith that doesn’t sit idly by, shrugging and saying, “Who can tell the will of God?” Instead, Lauren’s Earthseed faith is one of sweat and toil and the dignity of honest people creating the future they want to see, working with Change to move forward.
It’s eerie how very easily Butler’s idea of 2024 and on could very well become a reality. In a political climate where America’s current president wants to deregulate environmental measures and corporate law, whose administration is chock full of science deniers and those who have profited off the work of others, and whose campaign slogan was “Make America Great Again,” Parable of the Sower reads less like fiction and more like a prophecy, a cautionary tale for our time.
The sequel, “Parable of the Talents,” published in 1998, begins in 2032. By then, various forms of indentured servitude and slavery are common, facilitated by high-tech slave collars. The oppression of women has become extreme; those who express their opinion, “nags,” might have their tongues cut out. People are addicted not only to designer drugs but also to “dream masks,” which generate virtual fantasies as guided dreams, allowing wearers to submerge themselves in simpler, happier lives. News comes in the form of disks or “news bullets,” which “purport to tell us all we need to know in flashy pictures and quick, witty, verbal one-two punches. Twenty-five or thirty words are supposed to be enough in a news bullet to explain either a war or an unusual set of Christmas lights.” The Donner Administration has written off science, but a more immediate threat lurks: a violent movement is being whipped up by a new Presidential candidate, Andrew Steele Jarret, a Texas senator and religious zealot who is running on a platform to “make American great again.”Octavia Butler's Prophecy: "her vision for the future isn't too far off from where we are right now."
posted by kliuless at 2:34 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
we didn't make it easy for him last time and we won't make it easy for him this time either.
I mean, yeah, but last time, he did a lot of damage after winning more or less accidentally and with only wary support from his own side. This time, that side has an elaborate plan for how to capitalize on every iota of this and make their gains permanent.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:36 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
I mean, yeah, but last time, he did a lot of damage after winning more or less accidentally and with only wary support from his own side. This time, that side has an elaborate plan for how to capitalize on every iota of this and make their gains permanent.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:36 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
Well: 'The Democratic Party’s Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar – the first two Muslim women to serve in the United States Congress – have won re-election to the US House of Representatives.'
posted by cendawanita at 2:36 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 2:36 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
Such sensible voices some of us will have shouting on their behalves while we all drown!
God damn, sorry. I am not in a good place right now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:38 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
God damn, sorry. I am not in a good place right now.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:38 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Well, that's gonna wrap it up for America, I'm afraid. Good luck, the rest of the planet. I hope we don't take you down with us.
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:39 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:39 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I remember well the election night in 2016, where I started feeling physically ill.
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out.
On election night 2016, I was staying in Chinatown DC for work, because we were about to launch a satellite. I remember going to the front of the White House in the morning, and grieving, looking at the place through the fences. A woman there asked me to take her picture, but she said, "Don't ask me to smile, because I'm too sad."
As for my children, I just messaged with my youngest, who is in a bomb shelter, but apparently safe. The world is really messed up right now.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 2:41 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
One of our children just called us at 4 am, freaking out.
On election night 2016, I was staying in Chinatown DC for work, because we were about to launch a satellite. I remember going to the front of the White House in the morning, and grieving, looking at the place through the fences. A woman there asked me to take her picture, but she said, "Don't ask me to smile, because I'm too sad."
As for my children, I just messaged with my youngest, who is in a bomb shelter, but apparently safe. The world is really messed up right now.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 2:41 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
This sucks but America will survive.
That's cool but I might not (and I'm not sure it's true either)
posted by an octopus IRL at 2:43 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
That's cool but I might not (and I'm not sure it's true either)
posted by an octopus IRL at 2:43 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
I have drank all of the wine in the house, eaten most of the remaining pizza, and added an appalling amount of Ben & Jerry's on top. I should probably go to sleep.
Thanks for staying up, y'all. I wish it hadn't been for... this.
Oh, no.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:43 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Thanks for staying up, y'all. I wish it hadn't been for... this.
Oh, no.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:43 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Mefites piled onto me a week ago when I said this election was about inflation because elections are about whatever moves the dial. Glad to see this thread acknowledging that reality.
posted by MattD at 2:43 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by MattD at 2:43 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Ah, yes, because being right is the most important thing right now.
posted by Pendragon at 2:49 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 2:49 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]
It’s…interesting that the takeaway for many here tonight is that Harris and the Dems were perfect and did nothing wrong.
Right? I don't know what would have beaten Trump this time around, but I don't think we need to be praising the Dems for their flawless execution of a strategy that thoroughly failed.
Trump is a senile, weird, ugly, incoherent old man, a convicted felon who was 3 weeks away from very likely being sentenced to prison, a fraudster, a rapist, has already spent four years in office not actually doing the damn job, and has announced his intention to do all sorts of repugnant shit.
A fucking department store mannequin should have been able to defeat him.
The fact that Harris -- who would have been at least a decent President -- could not, doesn't say anything good about American voters. Honestly, I think a lot of it comes down to sexism. Competent female candidate vs. a candidate that has NOTHING going for him except for appealing to peoples' worst bigotries. The US just failed a test of decency, I think.
posted by Foosnark at 2:50 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
Right? I don't know what would have beaten Trump this time around, but I don't think we need to be praising the Dems for their flawless execution of a strategy that thoroughly failed.
Trump is a senile, weird, ugly, incoherent old man, a convicted felon who was 3 weeks away from very likely being sentenced to prison, a fraudster, a rapist, has already spent four years in office not actually doing the damn job, and has announced his intention to do all sorts of repugnant shit.
A fucking department store mannequin should have been able to defeat him.
The fact that Harris -- who would have been at least a decent President -- could not, doesn't say anything good about American voters. Honestly, I think a lot of it comes down to sexism. Competent female candidate vs. a candidate that has NOTHING going for him except for appealing to peoples' worst bigotries. The US just failed a test of decency, I think.
posted by Foosnark at 2:50 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
It's genuinely difficult for those of us who habitually pay attention to politics and world affairs to make correct predictions about the behaviour of the overwhelming majority of human beings who do neither of those things.
posted by flabdablet at 2:54 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 2:54 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]
I’m mad and depressed because there seemed to be several paths for Harris to win and they just all collapsed? What the fuck, how did it go so wrong?!
I remember the same feeling from the Brexit vote, when I could see the literal future of my country collapsing in front of me.
a) there are a lot of hateful people who see equality, fairness, 'wokeness' etc as a bad thing. Immigrants, 'uppity women', LGBTQ+ people, people of a different skin tone; it's 'us' vs 'them' and they're determined that 'they' will lose. For me in the UK in 2016, it was a real shock just how many there were and how proud of it; I think perhaps it's less of a shock in the USA.
b) Selfish non-thinkers. They look only at their own situation, have little no empathy about anybody else, and would much rather believe a comfortable lie than engage any comparative thinking. e.g. 'I'm poorer, democrats are in charge, I'm voting for the other guy' is about as complex as they get, and applies up and down the income scale. And there are a *lot* of these people. They don't vote on policies; They voted for Brexit, then the tories, then turned round and voted for Labour in the UK who had literally no policies bar 'Change' because they were fed up with the incumbents and inflation.
c) very high wealth individuals hacking away at education, civic engagement, fact-based press, and promoting the constant barrage of lies in social media etc - absolute sociopaths with the power to twist groups a) and b) into voting very much against their own interests in order to make group c) wealthier, and it's been going on for decades.
I'm sad today for the trans people, disabled people, immigrants, women of child-bearing age who just got thrown under the bus. That so many would vote for their own impoverishment because it puts one in the eye of people they hate, or genuinely are too stupid to understand Trump will oversee a huge wealth transfer from them to the rich. I'm sad for the people of Ukraine who are going to be handed over to Putin. I'm sad for the people of Gaza who are never going to get to go home. And I just can't even think about the so, so many that are going to die, in the groups above and more, and in the future from catastrophic climate change that is going to be made even worse.
Look out for your friends; you're going to need each other. If you have to flee to save yourself, genuinely good luck. And for those that can still find some level of hope for a brighter future, I'm glad someone can because all I can see is the cost to the world today is very, very high.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:55 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
I remember the same feeling from the Brexit vote, when I could see the literal future of my country collapsing in front of me.
a) there are a lot of hateful people who see equality, fairness, 'wokeness' etc as a bad thing. Immigrants, 'uppity women', LGBTQ+ people, people of a different skin tone; it's 'us' vs 'them' and they're determined that 'they' will lose. For me in the UK in 2016, it was a real shock just how many there were and how proud of it; I think perhaps it's less of a shock in the USA.
b) Selfish non-thinkers. They look only at their own situation, have little no empathy about anybody else, and would much rather believe a comfortable lie than engage any comparative thinking. e.g. 'I'm poorer, democrats are in charge, I'm voting for the other guy' is about as complex as they get, and applies up and down the income scale. And there are a *lot* of these people. They don't vote on policies; They voted for Brexit, then the tories, then turned round and voted for Labour in the UK who had literally no policies bar 'Change' because they were fed up with the incumbents and inflation.
c) very high wealth individuals hacking away at education, civic engagement, fact-based press, and promoting the constant barrage of lies in social media etc - absolute sociopaths with the power to twist groups a) and b) into voting very much against their own interests in order to make group c) wealthier, and it's been going on for decades.
I'm sad today for the trans people, disabled people, immigrants, women of child-bearing age who just got thrown under the bus. That so many would vote for their own impoverishment because it puts one in the eye of people they hate, or genuinely are too stupid to understand Trump will oversee a huge wealth transfer from them to the rich. I'm sad for the people of Ukraine who are going to be handed over to Putin. I'm sad for the people of Gaza who are never going to get to go home. And I just can't even think about the so, so many that are going to die, in the groups above and more, and in the future from catastrophic climate change that is going to be made even worse.
Look out for your friends; you're going to need each other. If you have to flee to save yourself, genuinely good luck. And for those that can still find some level of hope for a brighter future, I'm glad someone can because all I can see is the cost to the world today is very, very high.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:55 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
It’s…interesting that the takeaway for many here tonight is that Harris and the Dems were perfect and did nothing wrong.
I think the takeaway is that not one iota of either the Dem campaign, as it was run, or the GOP campaign, as it was misrun, was enough to stop the momentum of dipshits deciding "Things could be better! Must. Flip. Switch."
This was happening at a scale far, far beyond any where strategizing could have overcome it. There was no special sauce to bring over an extra 1% that would have overcome the apparent 3% who felt this way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:57 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
I think the takeaway is that not one iota of either the Dem campaign, as it was run, or the GOP campaign, as it was misrun, was enough to stop the momentum of dipshits deciding "Things could be better! Must. Flip. Switch."
This was happening at a scale far, far beyond any where strategizing could have overcome it. There was no special sauce to bring over an extra 1% that would have overcome the apparent 3% who felt this way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:57 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
i refuse to accept this until the states ratify their votes. it took days to count early/mail votes in 2020 and those eventual flipped several states giving Biden the win. it's hard to find numbers for all of the states but the gap in PA is 170k and the 2020 early/mail splits were several hundred thousand in favor of the Dems.
I'm not sure why this time around, the media is so ready to call the swing states when there's been record early/mail voting. i mean i know why... the media is terrible. but still, there's possibility.
posted by kokaku at 3:02 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I'm not sure why this time around, the media is so ready to call the swing states when there's been record early/mail voting. i mean i know why... the media is terrible. but still, there's possibility.
posted by kokaku at 3:02 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
WAIT. Do we have official elections results yet?
Has anyone conceded?
posted by edithkeeler at 3:04 AM on November 6
Has anyone conceded?
posted by edithkeeler at 3:04 AM on November 6
no. Harris has not conceded and the states are not done counting.
i think people are extrapolating? but i don't have faith the news are basing their calls on real data and property accounting for early/mail voting.
posted by kokaku at 3:06 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
i think people are extrapolating? but i don't have faith the news are basing their calls on real data and property accounting for early/mail voting.
posted by kokaku at 3:06 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
a) there are a lot of hateful people who see equality, fairness, 'wokeness' etc as a bad thing. Immigrants, 'uppity women', LGBTQ+ people, people of a different skin tone; it's 'us' vs 'them' and they're determined that 'they' will lose. (snip)
b) Selfish non-thinkers. They look only at their own situation, have little no empathy about anybody else, and would much rather believe a comfortable lie than engage any comparative thinking. e.g. 'I'm poorer, democrats are in charge, I'm voting for the other guy' is about as complex as they get, and applies up and down the income scale. (snip)
I'm living in Kentucky for past three years and this is what I see and observe about many people I cross paths with here. The lack of empathy in particular is profound.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 3:06 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I think a lot about this quote lately:
posted by ftrtts at 3:06 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
Did you ever stop to think that you can't leave for your job in the morning without being dependent on most of the world? You get up in the morning and go to the bathroom and reach over for the sponge, and that's handed to you by a Pacific Islander. You reach for a bar of soap, and that's given to you at the hands of a Frenchman. And then you go into the kitchen to drink your coffee for the morning, and that's poured into your cup by a South American. And maybe you want tea: that's poured into your cup by a Chinese. Or maybe you're desirous of having cocoa for breakfast, and that's poured into your cup by a West African. And then you reach over for your toast, and that's given to you at the hands of an English-speaking farmer, not to mention the baker. And before you finish eating breakfast in the morning, you've depended on more than half the world.Love & solidarity.
—Martin Luther King, Jr. in "A Christmas Sermon on Peace"
posted by ftrtts at 3:06 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
It's not about the economy. It's not about who had the better campaign. It's not about Whether We Preserve Government. It's not even about the economy.
It's about bullies. Trump is a bully, and there are a lot of people who feel emboldened to be bullies themselves, or who wanted the license to be bullies themselves, or feel won over by the bully, or wish they were on the bully's side, or who are too afraid to NOT be on the bully's side.
That's not an American thing or a right or left thing. That is a HUMAN thing. Too many people are just deep-down cruel. Afraid of whoever is different from them, and turning to cruelty to deal with it.
And we've never done well dealing with bullies. Speaking as the victim of bullying for about five years when I was a kid, we get it so, so wrong. We try to "understand" the bullies and try to get the victims to "understand" the bullies.
I guaran-fucking-tee that many of the people who voted for Trump were bullies themselves, but either never got caught or if they were caught were handled with kid gloves, and all it taught them was that they could keep being cruel and they could get away with it. Or they were victims who saw how the bullies were treated and decided "well fuck that, then, I'm going to start acting like that." They didn't learn that bullying is wrong when they were kids, and now they're grown up and they haven't changed.
We need to finally, for once and for all, handle bullying properly - at EVERY level. Give bullying actual moral and social consequences.
The curse I've started using against people - when I do feel like issuing a curse against anyone (and mostly it's in my own head when they do) - is the curse of insight. That someday, they wake up with the full insight and understanding of exactly how much their words and actions have hurt others. That they fully understand how cruel they are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:09 AM on November 6 [48 favorites]
It's about bullies. Trump is a bully, and there are a lot of people who feel emboldened to be bullies themselves, or who wanted the license to be bullies themselves, or feel won over by the bully, or wish they were on the bully's side, or who are too afraid to NOT be on the bully's side.
That's not an American thing or a right or left thing. That is a HUMAN thing. Too many people are just deep-down cruel. Afraid of whoever is different from them, and turning to cruelty to deal with it.
And we've never done well dealing with bullies. Speaking as the victim of bullying for about five years when I was a kid, we get it so, so wrong. We try to "understand" the bullies and try to get the victims to "understand" the bullies.
I guaran-fucking-tee that many of the people who voted for Trump were bullies themselves, but either never got caught or if they were caught were handled with kid gloves, and all it taught them was that they could keep being cruel and they could get away with it. Or they were victims who saw how the bullies were treated and decided "well fuck that, then, I'm going to start acting like that." They didn't learn that bullying is wrong when they were kids, and now they're grown up and they haven't changed.
We need to finally, for once and for all, handle bullying properly - at EVERY level. Give bullying actual moral and social consequences.
The curse I've started using against people - when I do feel like issuing a curse against anyone (and mostly it's in my own head when they do) - is the curse of insight. That someday, they wake up with the full insight and understanding of exactly how much their words and actions have hurt others. That they fully understand how cruel they are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:09 AM on November 6 [48 favorites]
If we can quote our previous comments (and I'm recalling this against the news that Tlaib and Omar won their seats, and left-wing policy referendums seem to have outperformed Harris voting patterns):
24/10/24: I spent the day thinking about the poll results and the various anecdata. If I understand well the level of pervasiveness that one doesn't simply bring up any criticisms of Israel in regular speech or among strangers (of which canvassers are a specific kind of 'stranger' in that the conversation is loaded), then I feel the social rules that apply would resemble more that of more authoritarian societies (which in this matter, is not hypothetical - people do see the social sanctions and penalties). But I'm probably wrong in the critical details, though I'm familiar with how public opinion continues changing at the subterranean level when there's repression. The problem is that while the repression is effective it doesn't get rid of anything ESPECIALLY if there's still a democratic lever of expression (be it anonymous phone calls or voting) at some point. That's usually why authoritarian tools backfire the worst for liberal actors (since all the signal-gathering is broken enough to influence effectively) because they can't or won't commit to eventual full authoritarianism, something Trump et al won't hesitate over, not when the ground is so well-prepared by the erstwhile liberals.
posted by cendawanita at 3:11 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
24/10/24: I spent the day thinking about the poll results and the various anecdata. If I understand well the level of pervasiveness that one doesn't simply bring up any criticisms of Israel in regular speech or among strangers (of which canvassers are a specific kind of 'stranger' in that the conversation is loaded), then I feel the social rules that apply would resemble more that of more authoritarian societies (which in this matter, is not hypothetical - people do see the social sanctions and penalties). But I'm probably wrong in the critical details, though I'm familiar with how public opinion continues changing at the subterranean level when there's repression. The problem is that while the repression is effective it doesn't get rid of anything ESPECIALLY if there's still a democratic lever of expression (be it anonymous phone calls or voting) at some point. That's usually why authoritarian tools backfire the worst for liberal actors (since all the signal-gathering is broken enough to influence effectively) because they can't or won't commit to eventual full authoritarianism, something Trump et al won't hesitate over, not when the ground is so well-prepared by the erstwhile liberals.
posted by cendawanita at 3:11 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
c) very high wealth individuals hacking away at education, civic engagement, fact-based press, and promoting the constant barrage of lies in social media etc
There’s your smoking gun. It’s been a long-term project, dating from the shocked response of elites to Roosevelt’s New Deal. The current generation of Dem leadership have continued to offer nothing nearly solid enough (in policy or electoral tactics) to overcome the multi-generational damage that’s been done to the intellectual and physical fabric of American society.
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 3:13 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
There’s your smoking gun. It’s been a long-term project, dating from the shocked response of elites to Roosevelt’s New Deal. The current generation of Dem leadership have continued to offer nothing nearly solid enough (in policy or electoral tactics) to overcome the multi-generational damage that’s been done to the intellectual and physical fabric of American society.
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 3:13 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
While I can endorse all of the self-blaming and finger pointing within the Left, I invite you to also "both-and" the blame. Earlier yesterday Reuters reported bomb threats at polling locations in battleground states. That would suppress voters turnout. One example of the behinds the scenes fuckery that must have been going on...
Also AP reports that Trump cleared 270 Electoral College votes.
posted by otherchaz at 3:13 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Also AP reports that Trump cleared 270 Electoral College votes.
posted by otherchaz at 3:13 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
The Democrats have a predilection towards running status quo candidates when people are unsatisfied with the status quo.
Biden should have never announced for re-election. The DNC should have recognized that 4 years wouldn’t have been enough to clean up after Trump, and started preparing a slate of change candidates for a primary.
They got complacent.
posted by vitout at 3:16 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
Biden should have never announced for re-election. The DNC should have recognized that 4 years wouldn’t have been enough to clean up after Trump, and started preparing a slate of change candidates for a primary.
They got complacent.
posted by vitout at 3:16 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
So anyway, if Trump decides to try and give Ukraine to his handler in Moscow, does anyone want to predict what the non-traitorous NATO members might do?
Any chance we see British, French, German or combined NATO units actually deployed to defend Ukraine?
I'd imagine even airpower alone would be very handy.
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:20 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Any chance we see British, French, German or combined NATO units actually deployed to defend Ukraine?
I'd imagine even airpower alone would be very handy.
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:20 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Onward tomorrow into our embarrassing future.
If only embarrassment were the worst of it.
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
You do know that's not how Hitler died, right?
posted by Paul Slade at 3:21 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
If only embarrassment were the worst of it.
He's got a clear path to being Hitler, dying of old age, surrounded by his loved ones.
You do know that's not how Hitler died, right?
posted by Paul Slade at 3:21 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
JFC Biden better get some shit done with that Presidential Immunity now
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]
The US' has always had a deep streak of fascist aithoritarianism. They've been backed by the wealthy and powerful for over a century. Trump is what they have been waiting for.
On the other side, the Democrats have offered no real path to amy meaningful change. Companies could endangers the public and workers and count on the government to break strikes for them, could gouge people suffering food insecurity with impunity. The only leadership on police violence has been to encourage it against protestors, and the total material support of genocide was nonnegotiable, even as it corroded necessary voting blocks for any path forward.
Be as safe as you can everyone, and get ready to fight.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:22 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
On the other side, the Democrats have offered no real path to amy meaningful change. Companies could endangers the public and workers and count on the government to break strikes for them, could gouge people suffering food insecurity with impunity. The only leadership on police violence has been to encourage it against protestors, and the total material support of genocide was nonnegotiable, even as it corroded necessary voting blocks for any path forward.
Be as safe as you can everyone, and get ready to fight.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:22 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Of The Empireposted by hydropsyche at 3:26 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]
We will be known as a culture that feared death
and adored power, that tried to vanquish insecurity
for the few and cared little for the penury of the
many. We will be known as a culture that taught
and rewarded the amassing of things, that spoke
little if at all about the quality of life for
people (other people), for dogs, for rivers. All
the world, in our eyes, they will say, was a
commodity. And they will say that this structure
was held together politically, which it was, and
they will say also that our politics was no more
than an apparatus to accommodate the feelings of
the heart, and that the heart, in those days,
was small, and hard, and full of meanness.
-Mary Oliver
So I've mentioned briefly - I now work for a place that performs first-term abortions. We were already seeing many out-of-state patients from states where abortion bans were in place.
Fortunately my state voted to preserve that right (quite strongly so), but a several other states solidified their bans - and now we are at risk of a federal ban, I'm sure.
We'll still do what we can. But we're just one clinic in one city, and many people who need that care will likely not be able to afford the travel necessary to come to that city. Women are going to die.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:26 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
Fortunately my state voted to preserve that right (quite strongly so), but a several other states solidified their bans - and now we are at risk of a federal ban, I'm sure.
We'll still do what we can. But we're just one clinic in one city, and many people who need that care will likely not be able to afford the travel necessary to come to that city. Women are going to die.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:26 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
How I’m feeling right now about every single person who looked at the options available and voted violence over empathy:
”Exit Music (for a film)”, Glastonbury 2017
We hope that you choke.
posted by snortasprocket at 3:26 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
”Exit Music (for a film)”, Glastonbury 2017
We hope that you choke.
posted by snortasprocket at 3:26 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
JFC Biden better get some shit done with that Presidential Immunity now
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6 [3 favorites −] Favorite added! [⚑]
my wish: that Biden uses the fuck out of that Presidential immunity to, say, throw Trump into prison based on the merits of the Jan.6 report. That he hold Clarence Thomas and his wife accountable for their actions on Jan 6. that... that he throws 'probity' aside and passes some laws unilaterally banning gerrymandering, say, or fuck if I know, kicking out the supports of the Republican biases.
I would like to see the Democrats play as dirty as the Republicans. I would like to see fighting as fierce and effective for the people as has been fought for a handful of corporations.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:33 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6 [3 favorites −] Favorite added! [⚑]
my wish: that Biden uses the fuck out of that Presidential immunity to, say, throw Trump into prison based on the merits of the Jan.6 report. That he hold Clarence Thomas and his wife accountable for their actions on Jan 6. that... that he throws 'probity' aside and passes some laws unilaterally banning gerrymandering, say, or fuck if I know, kicking out the supports of the Republican biases.
I would like to see the Democrats play as dirty as the Republicans. I would like to see fighting as fierce and effective for the people as has been fought for a handful of corporations.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:33 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]
I just emailed my professors and asked them to make todays classes on Zoom, because I’m not sure I and other students should be in public even in a deep blue state right now.
posted by corb at 3:34 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by corb at 3:34 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
@From Bklyn -
With as decisive a win as he had last night, Biden would be extraordinarily foolish to try any of that. You may not like it, but the numbers are what they are.
posted by tgrundke at 3:35 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
With as decisive a win as he had last night, Biden would be extraordinarily foolish to try any of that. You may not like it, but the numbers are what they are.
posted by tgrundke at 3:35 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Ruwa Romman wins reelection - this was the proposed speaker from the Uncommitted group during the DNC.
posted by cendawanita at 3:35 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 3:35 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
but the numbers are what they are.
What numbers? What official results? We still don’t have binding election results yet. Nobody has conceded, last I checked.
posted by edithkeeler at 3:38 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
What numbers? What official results? We still don’t have binding election results yet. Nobody has conceded, last I checked.
posted by edithkeeler at 3:38 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Went for a walk and remembered the line you can't save someone who refuses to be saved.
Please take care of your selves everyone
posted by Art_Pot at 3:39 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Please take care of your selves everyone
posted by Art_Pot at 3:39 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Any chance we see British, French, German or combined NATO units actually deployed to defend Ukraine?Lol, no.
posted by kmt at 3:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I am disappointed in you USA.
So. Very. Disappointed.
Be extra fucking nice to the trans folk in your lives because they are going to need it.
posted by neonamber at 3:40 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
So. Very. Disappointed.
Be extra fucking nice to the trans folk in your lives because they are going to need it.
posted by neonamber at 3:40 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
I have a close friend who lives in Pennsylvania and she felt like she couldn't vote for Harris because of the genocide in Gaza but ultimately she did anyway and it didn't even come close to mattering. I don't know what to do with that.
posted by an octopus IRL at 3:40 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 3:40 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Thought it was worth asking.
What's the point of NATO then?
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:40 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:40 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I don't really have anywhere else to say this, I think.
Punching walls doesn't work, the wall never loses.
Breaking a glass just means I'll need to clean it up afterwards
I could scream until I was hoarse, or drink myself into a stupor, and all I will feel is this, but with a sore throat or a hangover.
For at least the second time in the last ten years, I've allowed myself to believe in some general sort of decency in the world, some general sense of caring for others as an innate part of the human experience, and holy fuck, I was wrong. At my most charitable, people voted for Trump because they didn't pay enough attention to the non-stop stream of the most vile, batshit insane hate I've ever heard in my life, and I remember Jesse Helms, David Duke, Strom Thurmond, Rush Limbaugh, and the rest. The kindest I can bring myself to be is to accept that people were too stupid to know what they've just invited into their lives with Trump and a Senate majority making Project 2025 an almost certainty.
But I've always been too kind, too forgiving. The truth is probably a lot closer to this: people voted for Trump because he promises to hurt the people they want hurt. The voted for Trump because they're excited to see the pain this causes people. They voted for Trump because they got in trouble at work when they used a slur, and they've never gotten over it. They voted for the guy who always gets away with everything, no matter how debased he is or how clear his decline is because it means they have the chance to get away with everything, too.
So, if screaming is out, drinking is out, smashing glasses is out, and punching walls is dumb, what's left? I know someone out there is just itching to say "Organizing!" and I applaud your conviction, but at this point, I feel like I've just found out that my belief that people should care for other people is somehow not only not a mainstream idea, it could most realistically be described as being so in the minority it's a fringe belief, like the idea that vaccines save lives, or that children shouldn't go hungry. If the nation has decided that this is what it wants, what level of organizing is going to change its mind?
I thought 2016 would cure me of thinking that there was some sort of innate good in people. I thought seeing people gleefully ignoring even the most basic of pandemic precautions would get me to realize just how many people do not care for other people. Maybe this is the time I finally learn my lesson.
posted by Ghidorah at 3:42 AM on November 6 [54 favorites]
Punching walls doesn't work, the wall never loses.
Breaking a glass just means I'll need to clean it up afterwards
I could scream until I was hoarse, or drink myself into a stupor, and all I will feel is this, but with a sore throat or a hangover.
For at least the second time in the last ten years, I've allowed myself to believe in some general sort of decency in the world, some general sense of caring for others as an innate part of the human experience, and holy fuck, I was wrong. At my most charitable, people voted for Trump because they didn't pay enough attention to the non-stop stream of the most vile, batshit insane hate I've ever heard in my life, and I remember Jesse Helms, David Duke, Strom Thurmond, Rush Limbaugh, and the rest. The kindest I can bring myself to be is to accept that people were too stupid to know what they've just invited into their lives with Trump and a Senate majority making Project 2025 an almost certainty.
But I've always been too kind, too forgiving. The truth is probably a lot closer to this: people voted for Trump because he promises to hurt the people they want hurt. The voted for Trump because they're excited to see the pain this causes people. They voted for Trump because they got in trouble at work when they used a slur, and they've never gotten over it. They voted for the guy who always gets away with everything, no matter how debased he is or how clear his decline is because it means they have the chance to get away with everything, too.
So, if screaming is out, drinking is out, smashing glasses is out, and punching walls is dumb, what's left? I know someone out there is just itching to say "Organizing!" and I applaud your conviction, but at this point, I feel like I've just found out that my belief that people should care for other people is somehow not only not a mainstream idea, it could most realistically be described as being so in the minority it's a fringe belief, like the idea that vaccines save lives, or that children shouldn't go hungry. If the nation has decided that this is what it wants, what level of organizing is going to change its mind?
I thought 2016 would cure me of thinking that there was some sort of innate good in people. I thought seeing people gleefully ignoring even the most basic of pandemic precautions would get me to realize just how many people do not care for other people. Maybe this is the time I finally learn my lesson.
posted by Ghidorah at 3:42 AM on November 6 [54 favorites]
Im in denial. Like I cant believe/accept that that many people have such callous cruelty in their hearts. I'm stuck on how manipulated everyone must be by algorithms, AI, etc. I dont care if that doesn't acknowledge people's agency....I cant stomach the idea that people willingly chose this
posted by EarnestDeer at 3:43 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by EarnestDeer at 3:43 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
And those who turned their backs on Harris because she didn't renounce genocide in Gaza - you've just proven you're okay with genocide against women here in the United States.
This wasn't that election. This isn't shaping up to finish as some razor-thin thing where Stein voters could have swung it if they'd been more sensible.
This was the big squishy middle being pissed off because groceries and rent are way more expensive. The only reason this wasn't an almost-2008 level blowout was Trump; he was the only thing keeping it close and it turns out it wasn't enough.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:43 AM on November 6 [36 favorites]
This wasn't that election. This isn't shaping up to finish as some razor-thin thing where Stein voters could have swung it if they'd been more sensible.
This was the big squishy middle being pissed off because groceries and rent are way more expensive. The only reason this wasn't an almost-2008 level blowout was Trump; he was the only thing keeping it close and it turns out it wasn't enough.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:43 AM on November 6 [36 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?Hastings Ismay, 1st Baron Ismay:
While Secretary General, Ismay is also credited as having been the first person to say that the purpose of NATO was "to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down,"[2] a saying that has since become a common way to describe the dynamics of NATO.posted by kmt at 3:44 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?
Defeating the USSR, which was a threat to the profit of capitalist institutions and the power of the US and western Europe to dominate the third world politically and economically. Since the end of the Cold War it has been a relic, because nothing stands in the way of militarized capital on the global stahe anymorr.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:45 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Defeating the USSR, which was a threat to the profit of capitalist institutions and the power of the US and western Europe to dominate the third world politically and economically. Since the end of the Cold War it has been a relic, because nothing stands in the way of militarized capital on the global stahe anymorr.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:45 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I didn't know what to expect, but I never expected for Harris to get completely destroyed. As a leftist who held his nose and voted for Kamala Harris, the narrative in my head was that her inability to reach People Like Me would cost her the election. But the results are so conclusive that it's clear People Like Me didn't count for much -- people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference. I would love it if the democrats saw the defeat of their centrist candidates and took that as evidence that they need to move left, but the truth is, I'm not sure that's really what these results imply. They may imply that the democrats wouldn't actually harm themselves by moving left. But winning? I don't know what they could do to win, if I'm being honest. This is what America wants, for some unimaginable reason. I guess we're just really fucking dumb?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:49 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:49 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Here's my takeaway from all this. This might not be correct, but this is the view of things I've stapled together:
1. Consensus reality via corporate top-down journalism is done. Podcasters, tiktok, youtube, influencers, persona journalism is the new name of the game.
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
3. Running primarily on principles is a losing game. What is right and good doesn't drive people more than issues surrounding their immediate needs.
4. Anecdata is unreliable at best and usually utterly trivial.
5. I have an unlimited capacity for fear.
posted by Philipschall at 3:50 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]
1. Consensus reality via corporate top-down journalism is done. Podcasters, tiktok, youtube, influencers, persona journalism is the new name of the game.
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
3. Running primarily on principles is a losing game. What is right and good doesn't drive people more than issues surrounding their immediate needs.
4. Anecdata is unreliable at best and usually utterly trivial.
5. I have an unlimited capacity for fear.
posted by Philipschall at 3:50 AM on November 6 [26 favorites]
Permission for so many kinds of violence has just been unleashed.
posted by tarantula at 3:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by tarantula at 3:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Nigel Stanage:
This exit poll data is wild:
White men, white women, Black men, Black women, Latina women ALL tracking their 2020 numbers very closely.
Latino men, 2020: Biden 59%, Trump 36%
Latino men, 2024: Harris 45%, Trump 53%
A HUGE shift from D+23 to R+8
---
I reckon we're witnessing an ongoing process of whiteness as experienced by the Irish- and Italian-Americans. But if the other groups' voting patterns are also relatively stable that still meant white women can't get themselves off of the hook either.
posted by cendawanita at 3:51 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This exit poll data is wild:
White men, white women, Black men, Black women, Latina women ALL tracking their 2020 numbers very closely.
Latino men, 2020: Biden 59%, Trump 36%
Latino men, 2024: Harris 45%, Trump 53%
A HUGE shift from D+23 to R+8
---
I reckon we're witnessing an ongoing process of whiteness as experienced by the Irish- and Italian-Americans. But if the other groups' voting patterns are also relatively stable that still meant white women can't get themselves off of the hook either.
posted by cendawanita at 3:51 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
CongratuLations to Russia on winning WWIII without firing a shot.
posted by CynicalKnight at 3:52 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
posted by CynicalKnight at 3:52 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
So, if screaming is out, drinking is out, smashing glasses is out, and punching walls is dumb, what's left?
What's left is standing up for what *you* believe is right, no matter what anyone else says. Help someone who needs it. Smile at a child. Comfort those who cry.
posted by demi-octopus at 3:53 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
What's left is standing up for what *you* believe is right, no matter what anyone else says. Help someone who needs it. Smile at a child. Comfort those who cry.
posted by demi-octopus at 3:53 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
there was a miscue in the Harris campaign it was in failing to get enough daylight in between her and Biden
I saw this right from the start. Harris was far too nice, by staying loyal to someone she must have known was deeply unpopular in many ways, being somewhat unfairly blamed for their cost-of-living crisis. She needed to cut her ties to Biden to the extent possible and be willing to at least suggest that his policies were not her policies. She needed to be a presidential candidate, not a loyal VP.
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
I agree - this is the only way to even get close to redistributing enough wealth to get anywhere close to re-establishing a middle class. Everywhere, but especially America where, as with everything the US does, wealth inequality is supersized.
The (obvious) problem is that no government that makes the necessary decisions would have a snowball's chance in hell of being re-elected. In the US, to get that kind of change through would firstly require a whole slate of sacrificial politicians (that are capable of actually being elected) up and down all parts of the federal government to take a leaf out of Trump's book and just lie and cheat their way into power as President as well as the Senate and the House, using whatever means necessary. They'd then have to immediately roll up their sleeves and get to work on massive taxation and other economic reform to the extent it was so entrenched it would be almost impossible to unwind. They'd have four years to get all this done before they got turfed out on their ear in the next election. Even though subsequent governments would try to undo that work, it would take a long time and at least some good would remain.
There are two, likely insurmountable, problems with this idea, of course. The first is that very few people capable of carrying of such a scheme would be willing to do so. The second is that, having been given a taste of power (which, as we know, corrupts), at least some and likely most would decide they like being in power and refuse to do what they were supposed to. Something similar happened in my state (Queensland Australia) back in 1919-1921 when the then-government sought to abolish the upper house (effectively the Senate) by having an additional 16 members appointed (this was an appointed-for-life body, not an elected one) with their only task being to vote themselves out of a job. What's not well-recorded or known is that many of those decided they liked the power and decided to stay. The government had to get a further 14 members appointed before they managed to get that body to vote itself out of existence.
posted by dg at 3:57 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I saw this right from the start. Harris was far too nice, by staying loyal to someone she must have known was deeply unpopular in many ways, being somewhat unfairly blamed for their cost-of-living crisis. She needed to cut her ties to Biden to the extent possible and be willing to at least suggest that his policies were not her policies. She needed to be a presidential candidate, not a loyal VP.
Asset taxes now!
There is a direct through-line from asset hoarding by extremely wealthy families to your present economic misery. That misery will only ever keep getting worse for as long as governments refuse to implement taxation measures that counteract such hoarding by extracting the majority of public revenue from it.
I agree - this is the only way to even get close to redistributing enough wealth to get anywhere close to re-establishing a middle class. Everywhere, but especially America where, as with everything the US does, wealth inequality is supersized.
The (obvious) problem is that no government that makes the necessary decisions would have a snowball's chance in hell of being re-elected. In the US, to get that kind of change through would firstly require a whole slate of sacrificial politicians (that are capable of actually being elected) up and down all parts of the federal government to take a leaf out of Trump's book and just lie and cheat their way into power as President as well as the Senate and the House, using whatever means necessary. They'd then have to immediately roll up their sleeves and get to work on massive taxation and other economic reform to the extent it was so entrenched it would be almost impossible to unwind. They'd have four years to get all this done before they got turfed out on their ear in the next election. Even though subsequent governments would try to undo that work, it would take a long time and at least some good would remain.
There are two, likely insurmountable, problems with this idea, of course. The first is that very few people capable of carrying of such a scheme would be willing to do so. The second is that, having been given a taste of power (which, as we know, corrupts), at least some and likely most would decide they like being in power and refuse to do what they were supposed to. Something similar happened in my state (Queensland Australia) back in 1919-1921 when the then-government sought to abolish the upper house (effectively the Senate) by having an additional 16 members appointed (this was an appointed-for-life body, not an elected one) with their only task being to vote themselves out of a job. What's not well-recorded or known is that many of those decided they liked the power and decided to stay. The government had to get a further 14 members appointed before they managed to get that body to vote itself out of existence.
posted by dg at 3:57 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
(anyway on my end of things we're preparing contingencies for the expected and usual cuts to the various human rights and women's rights funding and support, typical for a republican admin but adjusted for Trump - but again, not unusual; at some point a few years back one of the local reproductive health service centres here had to give up their one of their funding sources which was American because it came with anti-abortion clauses. So, you know, imperial boomerang be boomeranging.
(Apparently Germany's government may just collapsed today too, if anyone is tracking on both Ukraine and general human rights work.)
posted by cendawanita at 3:58 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
(Apparently Germany's government may just collapsed today too, if anyone is tracking on both Ukraine and general human rights work.)
posted by cendawanita at 3:58 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
What's the point of NATO then?
NATO is dead. The corpse may twitch for a bit as people try to appeal to Trump's vanity, but NATO was always an alliance that relied on America's hugely outsized military spending. What remains of non-US-NATO should hopefully be enough to prevent Russia invading any European current-NATO members - the UK and France still have nukes, for example - but the ability to fund or fight a war outside their own borders at anything other than a small scale is gone. Remember, it was touch and go if the UK could win the Falklands war against Argentina, the last war they fought on their own.
Ukraine is at a huge material and manpower disadvantage, and the US was the lions share of giving them modern weapons and training that helped them offset that. The UK in particular has spent billions in Ukraine military aid, but it's only a small fraction of what they need as long as Putin is prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of men into the meat grinder. No NATO member is going to put boots on the ground in a non-member state when the opponent has nukes. They just won't. And anyone with a Russian border is now at risk.
The best Ukraine can hope for now is Putin will be satisfied with permanently annexing the areas Russia currently control and ending the war; for now, at least.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:00 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
NATO is dead. The corpse may twitch for a bit as people try to appeal to Trump's vanity, but NATO was always an alliance that relied on America's hugely outsized military spending. What remains of non-US-NATO should hopefully be enough to prevent Russia invading any European current-NATO members - the UK and France still have nukes, for example - but the ability to fund or fight a war outside their own borders at anything other than a small scale is gone. Remember, it was touch and go if the UK could win the Falklands war against Argentina, the last war they fought on their own.
Ukraine is at a huge material and manpower disadvantage, and the US was the lions share of giving them modern weapons and training that helped them offset that. The UK in particular has spent billions in Ukraine military aid, but it's only a small fraction of what they need as long as Putin is prepared to throw hundreds of thousands of men into the meat grinder. No NATO member is going to put boots on the ground in a non-member state when the opponent has nukes. They just won't. And anyone with a Russian border is now at risk.
The best Ukraine can hope for now is Putin will be satisfied with permanently annexing the areas Russia currently control and ending the war; for now, at least.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:00 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
(Apparently Germany's government may just collapsed today too, if anyone is tracking on both Ukraine and general human rights work.)
posted by cendawanita Fresh [+] [⚑]
all three parties have been planning to disassemble the coalition for a couple weeks now. It's not falling apart, it's the 'usual' Parliamentary b.s.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:01 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by cendawanita Fresh [+] [⚑]
all three parties have been planning to disassemble the coalition for a couple weeks now. It's not falling apart, it's the 'usual' Parliamentary b.s.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:01 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
If the nation has decided that this is what it wants, what level of organizing is going to change its mind?
I grew up in a conservative house – not fascist, but Reaganites (so, unwittingly proto-fascist). If you want to cultivate a lifelong sense that your values and concerns are marginal as a radical or progressive person, this is a good way to do it.
Some of the things that made it possible for me to get into adulthood without succumbing to complete despair were museums, libraries and our local punk scene and the huge world of art it opened me up to. These were small things – as others have noted, not ones that the majority of people around me cared about or valued. But real candles in the darkness – spaces that made me feel at least for a little bit like life could be something other that a grim zero sum game among assholes.
I think people like us are always on the margins of any big culture. But cultivating spaces that provide some psychic refuge is valuable. That’s what I’ve been working on, and am going to keep at as long as possible.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:03 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
I grew up in a conservative house – not fascist, but Reaganites (so, unwittingly proto-fascist). If you want to cultivate a lifelong sense that your values and concerns are marginal as a radical or progressive person, this is a good way to do it.
Some of the things that made it possible for me to get into adulthood without succumbing to complete despair were museums, libraries and our local punk scene and the huge world of art it opened me up to. These were small things – as others have noted, not ones that the majority of people around me cared about or valued. But real candles in the darkness – spaces that made me feel at least for a little bit like life could be something other that a grim zero sum game among assholes.
I think people like us are always on the margins of any big culture. But cultivating spaces that provide some psychic refuge is valuable. That’s what I’ve been working on, and am going to keep at as long as possible.
posted by ryanshepard at 4:03 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
It's about bullies.
Honestly I think that's it.
Trump's diehard followers are the kind of people who are always eager to make the world a worse place for everyone (including themselves) simply as a personal exercise of "power". And the Republican base, while perhaps less actively malicious (except toward specific groups) has enough casual disregard for others to go along with it.
How does one defeat that?
The way I dealt with bullies in school was coming up with unhealthy coping mechanisms, and surviving to high school (where there was less bullying) and finally college (where there was practically no bullying) and "real life" (where the bullies are mostly abstract things like capitalism itself, as well as individual assholes on the road or on the internet). But you can't graduate from politics, we are just stuck with bullies.
But the results are so conclusive that it's clear People Like Me didn't count for much -- people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference. I would love it if the democrats saw the defeat of their centrist candidates and took that as evidence that they need to move left, but the truth is, I'm not sure that's really what these results imply. They may imply that the democrats wouldn't actually harm themselves by moving left. But winning? I don't know what they could do to win, if I'm being honest. This is what America wants, for some unimaginable reason. I guess we're just really fucking dumb?
And this. As much as I would like to see someone with the heart of AOC, Omar, Pressley, etc. in the oval office... a more leftist candidate would have had the exact same problem Harris did here.
I don't want to solely blame America, though our homestyle blend of flag-waving gun-toting ignorance and bigotry is especially repugnant to me. People all over the world vote against their own best interests to put right-wing authoritarian scumbags into power.
posted by Foosnark at 4:04 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Honestly I think that's it.
Trump's diehard followers are the kind of people who are always eager to make the world a worse place for everyone (including themselves) simply as a personal exercise of "power". And the Republican base, while perhaps less actively malicious (except toward specific groups) has enough casual disregard for others to go along with it.
How does one defeat that?
The way I dealt with bullies in school was coming up with unhealthy coping mechanisms, and surviving to high school (where there was less bullying) and finally college (where there was practically no bullying) and "real life" (where the bullies are mostly abstract things like capitalism itself, as well as individual assholes on the road or on the internet). But you can't graduate from politics, we are just stuck with bullies.
But the results are so conclusive that it's clear People Like Me didn't count for much -- people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference. I would love it if the democrats saw the defeat of their centrist candidates and took that as evidence that they need to move left, but the truth is, I'm not sure that's really what these results imply. They may imply that the democrats wouldn't actually harm themselves by moving left. But winning? I don't know what they could do to win, if I'm being honest. This is what America wants, for some unimaginable reason. I guess we're just really fucking dumb?
And this. As much as I would like to see someone with the heart of AOC, Omar, Pressley, etc. in the oval office... a more leftist candidate would have had the exact same problem Harris did here.
I don't want to solely blame America, though our homestyle blend of flag-waving gun-toting ignorance and bigotry is especially repugnant to me. People all over the world vote against their own best interests to put right-wing authoritarian scumbags into power.
posted by Foosnark at 4:04 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
At college football games in the South between teams from the Southeastern Conference and those from other regions of the country, the crowd sometimes chants “S-E-C! S-E-C!”
This has that vibe.
posted by Caxton1476 at 4:07 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
This has that vibe.
posted by Caxton1476 at 4:07 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
My plan is to turn off the internet. It will do me no good to steep in any of this. I will continue to be kind, energetic, curious, loving, creative, and friendly. I will read books. I will make art. I will be a great husband, father, friend and son. I will love my neighbor. I will make the world a better place by holding the door for strangers and saying thank you and treating everyone as interesting. I will listen. I will speak. I will live my life to the fullest and bring as much joy and I can into the world. In 10 years time I will look back and know that I refused to stew and drown in the muck. I will lead the people in my life and set the best example I can. Anything else is out of my control. Anything else is less than I can do to make this world better.
posted by jasondigitized at 4:10 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 4:10 AM on November 6 [43 favorites]
Welp, guess it's back to worrying about Canada playing Poland to Trump's Nazis. I can only hope that his success scares some of the people here and we avoid mini Trump as PM.
posted by Mitheral at 4:12 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 4:12 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Mefites piled onto me a week ago when I said this election was about inflation because elections are about whatever moves the dial. Glad to see this thread acknowledging that reality.
I suppose if four people question your "inflation, that's it" comment it can feel like a pile-on, but I wouldn't have called it that. My replies and the few others to your comment in that thread were basically to the effect of (a) everyone voting against Trump has felt the effects of inflation as well, and (b) inflation was a global 2022-23 problem, which has now globally slowed down, and (c) Trump's policies will do nothing to stop it, or they'll make it worse. Nobody was saying inflation hasn't been a problem, the issue was "that's it".
Because that wasn't just it. ABC News polling found 49% of Americans think Trump is a fascist and that one in twelve of those planned to vote for him anyway. That suggests that up to 4 points of Trump's popular vote were people actively voting for a fascist, not voting against inflation. It also suggests that a lot of other Trump voters were telling themselves it was because of inflation to let themselves off the hook for voting for everything else he represents. It can't possibly be their indifference towards or support for racism, misogyny, xenophobia, dismantling democracy and the rest.
We all know who else historically benefitted from voters' memories of a period of high inflation. But ending the explanation for his victory there is just wrong.
Anyway, that current 3.7% Trump lead in the popular vote has really knocked my confidence in the human race, even though I know that Republican shenanigans around voter registrations and the like contributed to it, so I'll just be here with the sizable majority of Western Europeans and 47.3% of American voters looking on aghast.
At least we've been able to tell ourselves for the past ninety years that you-know-who never won a majority of the vote in you-know-where. This is just bleak.
This looks like it could be a worthwhile read.
posted by rory at 4:14 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I suppose if four people question your "inflation, that's it" comment it can feel like a pile-on, but I wouldn't have called it that. My replies and the few others to your comment in that thread were basically to the effect of (a) everyone voting against Trump has felt the effects of inflation as well, and (b) inflation was a global 2022-23 problem, which has now globally slowed down, and (c) Trump's policies will do nothing to stop it, or they'll make it worse. Nobody was saying inflation hasn't been a problem, the issue was "that's it".
Because that wasn't just it. ABC News polling found 49% of Americans think Trump is a fascist and that one in twelve of those planned to vote for him anyway. That suggests that up to 4 points of Trump's popular vote were people actively voting for a fascist, not voting against inflation. It also suggests that a lot of other Trump voters were telling themselves it was because of inflation to let themselves off the hook for voting for everything else he represents. It can't possibly be their indifference towards or support for racism, misogyny, xenophobia, dismantling democracy and the rest.
We all know who else historically benefitted from voters' memories of a period of high inflation. But ending the explanation for his victory there is just wrong.
Anyway, that current 3.7% Trump lead in the popular vote has really knocked my confidence in the human race, even though I know that Republican shenanigans around voter registrations and the like contributed to it, so I'll just be here with the sizable majority of Western Europeans and 47.3% of American voters looking on aghast.
At least we've been able to tell ourselves for the past ninety years that you-know-who never won a majority of the vote in you-know-where. This is just bleak.
This looks like it could be a worthwhile read.
posted by rory at 4:14 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I was so comprehensively wrong about everything. I'm so sorry.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:15 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 4:15 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Well. Fuck.
Looks like all that "don't trust the polls" stuff was wrong, the polls were right, and Americans are an evil bunch of Nazi loving filth.
posted by sotonohito at 4:17 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Looks like all that "don't trust the polls" stuff was wrong, the polls were right, and Americans are an evil bunch of Nazi loving filth.
posted by sotonohito at 4:17 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Eugene Finkel on Twitter:
It's a losing proposition but those who predicted Harris' win might consider refraining from telling us where the world is going from here for something like a day or soposted by kmt at 4:17 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Mod note: Comment removed. Let’s avoid turning on each other as a coping mechanism.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:18 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:18 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Thanks for the NATO responses.
One final totally different topic, which I'm sure has been said before...
And this comes from months of discussing stuff down under with a ragtag bunch of sports fans, so unlike normal silos all walks of life are represented.
What's absolutely astounding is how we're living in different realities. And these people are all consuming Murdoch news and talkback AM radio, because those are all the links they post other than the absolute cooker ones (random youtube ranters).
No matter what's said about Trump, every single criticism is like water off a duck's back: "You probably got that from biased media". So NY fraud and sexual assault cases don't count because it's NY therefore liberal therefore biased. No conception of evidence, grand juries, witnesses, testimonies. It's apparently all fake, and no reporting of facts matters. No listings of all the garbage that happened around the Big Lie counts for anything.
The same goes for everything: Jan 6th? He said "peacefully", case closed! RICO case? Something something weaponising the DOJ. Documents in bathrooms? Biden did it too! It goes on and on.
Trump is supposedly the most unfairly persecuted person in all of history. The Democrats are apparently all about complaining and personal vendettas.
This has been going on for months and nothing at all has ever gotten through, and I don't think anything can get through.
Anyway, I don't know if that helps but I don't think everything can be put down to plain racism and meanness of spirit. These people aren't the brightest, it's a sports forum after all. But combining a low level of critical thinking ability with a determined propaganda machine feeding them all the talking points they need is very powerful indeed, because they end up both-sidesing absolutely everything, including sources of truth.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:20 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
One final totally different topic, which I'm sure has been said before...
And this comes from months of discussing stuff down under with a ragtag bunch of sports fans, so unlike normal silos all walks of life are represented.
What's absolutely astounding is how we're living in different realities. And these people are all consuming Murdoch news and talkback AM radio, because those are all the links they post other than the absolute cooker ones (random youtube ranters).
No matter what's said about Trump, every single criticism is like water off a duck's back: "You probably got that from biased media". So NY fraud and sexual assault cases don't count because it's NY therefore liberal therefore biased. No conception of evidence, grand juries, witnesses, testimonies. It's apparently all fake, and no reporting of facts matters. No listings of all the garbage that happened around the Big Lie counts for anything.
The same goes for everything: Jan 6th? He said "peacefully", case closed! RICO case? Something something weaponising the DOJ. Documents in bathrooms? Biden did it too! It goes on and on.
Trump is supposedly the most unfairly persecuted person in all of history. The Democrats are apparently all about complaining and personal vendettas.
This has been going on for months and nothing at all has ever gotten through, and I don't think anything can get through.
Anyway, I don't know if that helps but I don't think everything can be put down to plain racism and meanness of spirit. These people aren't the brightest, it's a sports forum after all. But combining a low level of critical thinking ability with a determined propaganda machine feeding them all the talking points they need is very powerful indeed, because they end up both-sidesing absolutely everything, including sources of truth.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:20 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
Perhaps I should put together a post about this, but my personal insight into it is that the impact to weather science is going to be big. I'm very worried about what is about to happen to funding for my own flight project. Which is of course going to wreck our ability to handle climate change ten years down the road.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 4:21 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 4:21 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
I was very wrong about how all this would play out; maybe my media sources have become a left wing bubble. Sad for us and for the USA.
posted by Kwine at 4:30 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Kwine at 4:30 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
The Internet and social media are a bigger change to the communication/information landscape than we've seen since the telegraph and the rise of broadcast media; maybe since the printing press.
We're going to have our Protestant Reformations and Thirty Years Wars. It's not going to be fun. And always keep in mind that humans are very smart brains riding around inside of stupid animals.
posted by rikschell at 4:30 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
We're going to have our Protestant Reformations and Thirty Years Wars. It's not going to be fun. And always keep in mind that humans are very smart brains riding around inside of stupid animals.
posted by rikschell at 4:30 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
sizable majority of Western Europeans
I'll see your small Guardian chart and raise you Gallup data containing most European countries and a few besides.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:31 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I'll see your small Guardian chart and raise you Gallup data containing most European countries and a few besides.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:31 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
This is a catastrophe on a global scale, like a meteor strike. The consequences will be felt across the globe.
The only thing greater than my fear and alarm right now, is my disgust at Dem voters who sat this one out. How dare you.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:33 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
The only thing greater than my fear and alarm right now, is my disgust at Dem voters who sat this one out. How dare you.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:33 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
Over 71,000,000. I never knew the US held so many stupid people. Irredeemably stupid. Yes, I am judging you.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:34 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:34 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
lol is he winning the popular vote too? We are cooked. It’s been fun but this country is done
posted by dis_integration at 4:35 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:35 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Would Biden have won? We will never know. I know how much tension left my body when he dropped out, but again, I'm feeling like maybe my finger is not on the pulse, at all; whatever is going on in this country is beyond my ability to make sense of it, unless most of us are just starring in our own private episode of Jackass.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
As a Canadian, I don't know why I feel so properly demoralized and hopeless this morning when it's not even my country.
I think it's because it is the first time I have ever truly come to the realization that my country is next.
posted by Lizard at 4:40 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I think it's because it is the first time I have ever truly come to the realization that my country is next.
posted by Lizard at 4:40 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Welp, now the people who slept through their high school history class get to find out what it's like to live under an authoritarian dictatorship.
Unfortunately, so do the rest of us.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 4:40 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
Unfortunately, so do the rest of us.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 4:40 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
Yes, this sucks and is a stunning blow, no question.
It is not the end, not if we pull together and work toward making things better.
But yes, first some tears and heartache
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:41 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
It is not the end, not if we pull together and work toward making things better.
But yes, first some tears and heartache
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:41 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
I was so comprehensively wrong about everything. I'm so sorry.
I think we all have regrets. I think we all wanted to believe we were living in a saner, kinder world than we are. All we can do is try to live as though we are. I hope you are able to get some peace and calm today. I hope we all are.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:42 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I think we all have regrets. I think we all wanted to believe we were living in a saner, kinder world than we are. All we can do is try to live as though we are. I hope you are able to get some peace and calm today. I hope we all are.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:42 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Would Biden have won? We will never know. I know how much tension left my body when he dropped out, but again, I'm feeling like maybe my finger is not on the pulse, at all; whatever is going on in this country is beyond my ability to make sense of it, unless most of us are just starring in our own private episode of Jackass.
If Biden had stayed in, Trump would have entered landslide territory, probably flipping Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota....that's where the trendlines were going. Believe it or not I think Harris stemmed the worst of the loss.
posted by fortitude25 at 4:43 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]
If Biden had stayed in, Trump would have entered landslide territory, probably flipping Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota....that's where the trendlines were going. Believe it or not I think Harris stemmed the worst of the loss.
posted by fortitude25 at 4:43 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]
Harris is polling about 20 million votes behind Biden 2020; Trump’s about where he was in 2020.
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
posted by notyou at 4:44 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
posted by notyou at 4:44 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I guess I’ll start stocking up for the purge now that the christofascist freaks are going to control every branch of the federal government. Damn, this is so bad!!! Haha, fuck
posted by dis_integration at 4:45 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:45 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
May be the most successful investment Musk ever made.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:45 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by 2N2222 at 4:45 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
The Internet and social media are a bigger change to the communication/information landscape than we've seen since the telegraph and the rise of broadcast media; maybe since the printing press.
Sigh. I can't stop talking.
I've been obsessed recently with this idea I think I came up with (but probably heard somewhere) that we invent and discover things much faster than we learn to deal with them.
Basically, Frankenstein's monsters all the way down.
Seems to me that these things happen in cycles of about 50 years.
It took about half a century from the industrial revolution to the industrialised warfare of WW1 as nations found themselves with more power than they knew how to control, and tensions over the colonisalisation project seeking to supply the materials for all that machinery.
It was about 50 years from The Origin of Species to eugenics and then the death camps.
It was 50 years from the atomic bomb to the end of the arms race.
50 years from the Gutenberg Bible to Martin Luther.
Guess how long between Roe and Dobbs?
The WWW has been widely adopted now for about 30 years, social media in earnest maybe around 20.
By my calculation we're about half way towards hopefully starting to come to grips with it.
Unless of course things speed up with AI, and speeding up is part of the Kali Yuga. However, overall I think the Law of 50s applies.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:48 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Sigh. I can't stop talking.
I've been obsessed recently with this idea I think I came up with (but probably heard somewhere) that we invent and discover things much faster than we learn to deal with them.
Basically, Frankenstein's monsters all the way down.
Seems to me that these things happen in cycles of about 50 years.
It took about half a century from the industrial revolution to the industrialised warfare of WW1 as nations found themselves with more power than they knew how to control, and tensions over the colonisalisation project seeking to supply the materials for all that machinery.
It was about 50 years from The Origin of Species to eugenics and then the death camps.
It was 50 years from the atomic bomb to the end of the arms race.
50 years from the Gutenberg Bible to Martin Luther.
Guess how long between Roe and Dobbs?
The WWW has been widely adopted now for about 30 years, social media in earnest maybe around 20.
By my calculation we're about half way towards hopefully starting to come to grips with it.
Unless of course things speed up with AI, and speeding up is part of the Kali Yuga. However, overall I think the Law of 50s applies.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:48 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Yesterday in work Slack when I wished everyone “Happy Decide Your Neighbor’s Fate Day,” this is not the fate I expected my neighbors to decide for us.
Find a place for your hands and keep pushing.
posted by notyou at 4:48 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Find a place for your hands and keep pushing.
posted by notyou at 4:48 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
Kamala simply didn't earn their votes.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Kamala simply didn't earn their votes.
posted by 2N2222 at 4:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
2N2222 - that’s in all the Bloomberg chats as the people hit the desk this morning - Musk buying Twitter and doubling down on Trump sure looks sharp.
posted by MattD at 4:51 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by MattD at 4:51 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I'm off the mind that Biden set us up for failure the moment he went back on his promise of being a single term president. Kamala and a bunch of folks did utterly heroic work to rally the party once he dropped out, but at the end of the day -- a country still staggering from inflation found this administration unpopular and wanted a change. I think people are tired and disillusioned with the Dem establishment (how often have we here in the Blue lined up the circular firing squad?). The establishment gave its utter best in this election and that was rejected. I don't think the country made the right choice but that's the choice that they made.
I think it's indicative that the last two triumphant Presidents (Obama and Trump) were people who didn't come from within the establishment. I was hopeful that Kamala and Tim's message of being from the middle class would be enough, but at the end they're still ensconced in the establishment and were unable to distance themselves from Biden and that dragged them down.
(Those 20 million Biden voters disappeared the moment his approval rating went below 50%. That hissing sound is the sound of them leaking to the Trump camp)
I think that so long as Congress stays dysfunctional, this dissatisfaction will deepen and fester, and the country will forever lurch between demagogues who can promise to Fix All The Things or under One King who deforms the institutions to undo any fairness of our electoral process. So, I think preserving those institutions from the coming assault is the first priority, which makes me think about local, county and state races. The Stop the Steal movement to create election interference needs an equivalent movement to actually pursue election integrity. That's the only way back, and if we are to come back, then it needs to be with someone who is not a Baby Boomer, not even Gen X. Someone new and different who will meet this national hunger to Fix All The Things.
Because so many things will get broken in these next four years.
posted by bl1nk at 4:53 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I think it's indicative that the last two triumphant Presidents (Obama and Trump) were people who didn't come from within the establishment. I was hopeful that Kamala and Tim's message of being from the middle class would be enough, but at the end they're still ensconced in the establishment and were unable to distance themselves from Biden and that dragged them down.
(Those 20 million Biden voters disappeared the moment his approval rating went below 50%. That hissing sound is the sound of them leaking to the Trump camp)
I think that so long as Congress stays dysfunctional, this dissatisfaction will deepen and fester, and the country will forever lurch between demagogues who can promise to Fix All The Things or under One King who deforms the institutions to undo any fairness of our electoral process. So, I think preserving those institutions from the coming assault is the first priority, which makes me think about local, county and state races. The Stop the Steal movement to create election interference needs an equivalent movement to actually pursue election integrity. That's the only way back, and if we are to come back, then it needs to be with someone who is not a Baby Boomer, not even Gen X. Someone new and different who will meet this national hunger to Fix All The Things.
Because so many things will get broken in these next four years.
posted by bl1nk at 4:53 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I think that part that's most disheartening is that Trump won the popular vote and he won it bigly. 8 fucking million more people voted Trump than Harris.
If he'd gotten in by Electoral College bullshit I'd be enraged but not so fucking hopeless.
But what can you do when your nation decides, by an 8 million person margin, that it think Fascism is pretty cool?
I suppose, in a morbid "what exactly killed the patient" sort of way, I'm curious if it really was high prices that drove the idiots to vote Fascism, or if it was just that Harris was a woman (or Black, or Indian, or whatever).
Because Trump did have, on the economy, the advantage of having a good story to tell, and stories matter. Trump's economy story was simple, easy to follow, and makes sense even if it's pure bullshit: prices are too high, it's Biden's fault, and I'm going to lower prices.
He can't lower prices. His policies are guaranteed to raise prices, but that's an explanation and explanations lose to simple stories. Harris had no simple story she could tell, constrained by a belief in reality she was hamstrung by trying to explain and explanations always fail.
Ronald Wilson Fucking Reagan was right about that: if you're explaining, you're losing.
But I'm not sure I buy the idea that it was all about high prices. That's got the feel of a comforting lie we want to tell ourselves so we don't have to face the worse truth: most Americans are Fascists, white supremacists, homophobes, transphobes, and misogynists.
My "liberal" county went for Harris by a mere 54% Harris to 44% Trump. And that's "liberal".
My goal today is to go to work, and if I feel like I can't hold back from telling the Trumpers there to fuck off to say I'm sick and go home instead of getting fired.
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]
If he'd gotten in by Electoral College bullshit I'd be enraged but not so fucking hopeless.
But what can you do when your nation decides, by an 8 million person margin, that it think Fascism is pretty cool?
I suppose, in a morbid "what exactly killed the patient" sort of way, I'm curious if it really was high prices that drove the idiots to vote Fascism, or if it was just that Harris was a woman (or Black, or Indian, or whatever).
Because Trump did have, on the economy, the advantage of having a good story to tell, and stories matter. Trump's economy story was simple, easy to follow, and makes sense even if it's pure bullshit: prices are too high, it's Biden's fault, and I'm going to lower prices.
He can't lower prices. His policies are guaranteed to raise prices, but that's an explanation and explanations lose to simple stories. Harris had no simple story she could tell, constrained by a belief in reality she was hamstrung by trying to explain and explanations always fail.
Ronald Wilson Fucking Reagan was right about that: if you're explaining, you're losing.
But I'm not sure I buy the idea that it was all about high prices. That's got the feel of a comforting lie we want to tell ourselves so we don't have to face the worse truth: most Americans are Fascists, white supremacists, homophobes, transphobes, and misogynists.
My "liberal" county went for Harris by a mere 54% Harris to 44% Trump. And that's "liberal".
My goal today is to go to work, and if I feel like I can't hold back from telling the Trumpers there to fuck off to say I'm sick and go home instead of getting fired.
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]
So NC won’t vote for a self avowed black Nazi but did vote for a white one? And how many millions of people didn’t vote?
Keep an eye on mortgage rates. The housing market is the economy and when rates get high again everything’s gonna grind to a halt and this administration will be powerless to fix it. And we’ll elect a bag of sand in 4 years to fix this, if we have the opportunity to do so.
Please note I’m crushed about this as well. All of this is out of my control so I’m looking for data that will help me navigate this nightmare situation. Do I stop paying my federal taxes? The IRS will be gutted so odds are low of an audit and I need the cash. Do I start concealed carrying? The bullies just won and they are emboldened. The oligarchs just won and the rest of us lost.
posted by Farce_First at 4:59 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Keep an eye on mortgage rates. The housing market is the economy and when rates get high again everything’s gonna grind to a halt and this administration will be powerless to fix it. And we’ll elect a bag of sand in 4 years to fix this, if we have the opportunity to do so.
Please note I’m crushed about this as well. All of this is out of my control so I’m looking for data that will help me navigate this nightmare situation. Do I stop paying my federal taxes? The IRS will be gutted so odds are low of an audit and I need the cash. Do I start concealed carrying? The bullies just won and they are emboldened. The oligarchs just won and the rest of us lost.
posted by Farce_First at 4:59 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I want to point out lots of dumb shit the Harris campaign did (it was still better than the Clinton one), but it doesn’t matter. The devastation of the next four years will remake America and the world. There might not even be a Democratic Party in 2028. So let’s also avoid knee jerk blaming of the left now. The two parties are now the violent thugs and their victims. The only thing left is to figure out how to help the victims make it through. This won’t be a permanent condition. Something else we cannot predict will happen, we just have to survive
posted by dis_integration at 4:59 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:59 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I also think that it didn't help that the Biden administration piously avoided holding any members of Congress accountable for their role in subverting the 2020 election.
posted by The Outsider at 4:59 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
posted by The Outsider at 4:59 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
They stayed home, for whatever obscene reason, and totally fucked their country, and the world.
We can't pin this one on protest voters, folks. They didn't have enough impact to change anything. Responsibility for this disaster is squarely at the feet of lazy and/or apathetic Dems who couldn't be bothered to pick up a pen to stand in solidarity with their vulnerable neighbours. Quisling bastards.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 5:00 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
ffs stop trying to post mortem it, there's no wisdom to be had.
half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it. just stop.
what do you do now? you put your head down, take a breath, take care of yourself, protect the vulnerable as you are able, and find something small and local to do to make things better for even just one person. volunteer for something. make some public art.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:03 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it. just stop.
what do you do now? you put your head down, take a breath, take care of yourself, protect the vulnerable as you are able, and find something small and local to do to make things better for even just one person. volunteer for something. make some public art.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:03 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
So NC won’t vote for a self avowed black Nazi but did vote for a white one?
Aww, racism babes
posted by phunniemee at 5:04 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Aww, racism babes
posted by phunniemee at 5:04 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Slept about two hours. Report from Puerto Rico. The statehood initiative passed with 57% of vote. For the first time independence came in second. A lot of ballots were left blank as a protest.
I'm not sure what's next. If the Republicans control the House, there's a zero percent chance that the statehood vote will be considered. Statehood has to go through the House and the Senate. So another middle finger to democracy.
The "Pro-statehood" party candidates won the governorship (a woman). The non-voting Representative position went to the PDP party, pro-commonwealth. I hate the term pro-statehood. It looks like prostate.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:06 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I'm not sure what's next. If the Republicans control the House, there's a zero percent chance that the statehood vote will be considered. Statehood has to go through the House and the Senate. So another middle finger to democracy.
The "Pro-statehood" party candidates won the governorship (a woman). The non-voting Representative position went to the PDP party, pro-commonwealth. I hate the term pro-statehood. It looks like prostate.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:06 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
if we are to come back, then it needs to be with someone who is not a Baby Boomer, not even Gen X
Aw, man. So from Carter onwards, we had Greatest Generation, Greatest Generation x 2, Greatest Generation, Boomer x 2 , Boomer x 2, Boomer x 2, Boomer, Silent Generation, Boomer. And running against Trump this time was someone on the cusp of X but still technically a Boomer.
Yeah, let's just skip Gen X, we'll be too busy dealing with our parents' estates.
posted by rory at 5:06 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Aw, man. So from Carter onwards, we had Greatest Generation, Greatest Generation x 2, Greatest Generation, Boomer x 2 , Boomer x 2, Boomer x 2, Boomer, Silent Generation, Boomer. And running against Trump this time was someone on the cusp of X but still technically a Boomer.
Yeah, let's just skip Gen X, we'll be too busy dealing with our parents' estates.
posted by rory at 5:06 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Kamala simply didn't earn their votes.
This, but unironically.
You can chide an individual for their choice to not vote, but elections don't turn on individual responsibility. They turn on the ability of campaigns to give their voters reasons to come out to vote. Reasons to be excited or hopeful, and to think there are genuine better possibilities.
Just running on how wretched the other guy is never works. It should, but it doesn't. If I stayed home and didn't vote, that's on me. If 20 million of my neighbors don't get up to vote, that says something about the campaign.
I am sick about this. I have friends who are very likely to die over the next four years because of this election. But the causes here aren't 20,000,000 voters just decided to embrace evil arbitrarily. It is that the things that should have been present to get people out to vote didn't materialize and the least motivated voters just didn't turn out as a result.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:08 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
This, but unironically.
You can chide an individual for their choice to not vote, but elections don't turn on individual responsibility. They turn on the ability of campaigns to give their voters reasons to come out to vote. Reasons to be excited or hopeful, and to think there are genuine better possibilities.
Just running on how wretched the other guy is never works. It should, but it doesn't. If I stayed home and didn't vote, that's on me. If 20 million of my neighbors don't get up to vote, that says something about the campaign.
I am sick about this. I have friends who are very likely to die over the next four years because of this election. But the causes here aren't 20,000,000 voters just decided to embrace evil arbitrarily. It is that the things that should have been present to get people out to vote didn't materialize and the least motivated voters just didn't turn out as a result.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:08 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Harris didn’t run on the other guy is bad, abortion rights were a main part of her campaign
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:10 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:10 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Silenced transgender state lawmaker Zooey Zephyr wins reelection in Montana
posted by cendawanita at 5:10 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 5:10 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
abortion rights were a main part of her campaign
Looks like most of the those initiatives passed.
And the down-ballot races aren't some massive GOP blowout. People just... fucking sat this one out at the top of the ticket?
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:11 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Looks like most of the those initiatives passed.
And the down-ballot races aren't some massive GOP blowout. People just... fucking sat this one out at the top of the ticket?
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:11 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
New voters aged 18-21 didn't vote in 2020 and nobody under 25 voted in 2016. Trump's voters this year include a lot of people who were kids when he was last president, including a lot of young white men who've bought into Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan and think Elon Musk is a great visionary. Even relying on memories of 2020 isn't a reliable shorthand for "remember when things were bad" for everyone.
posted by rory at 5:13 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
posted by rory at 5:13 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
US Politics: “After Rampage, Horse is Allowed Back Into the Hospital”
posted by snortasprocket at 5:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by snortasprocket at 5:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
yeah, I find that... odd
posted by From Bklyn at 5:13 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
yeah, I find that... odd
posted by From Bklyn at 5:13 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Harris didn’t run on the other guy is bad, abortion rights were a main part of her campaign
And how did that work out? Missouri voters went for Trump 58% to 40% but went for Amendment 3 (Right to Abortion) 51.85% to 48.15%.
posted by Foosnark at 5:14 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
And how did that work out? Missouri voters went for Trump 58% to 40% but went for Amendment 3 (Right to Abortion) 51.85% to 48.15%.
posted by Foosnark at 5:14 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Should have recruited Taylor Swift. US politics is a shitshow that can only be won if everyone loses
posted by rikschell at 5:14 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 5:14 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Back in June, I did an informal experiment. I visit Yahoo News which has feeds from a variety of news sources, mainstream, liberal, and conservative. My test parameters were these.
Whenever there was an image of a minority as part of the link to a story and in the headline that person was identified as a criminal I made note of the source and copied that headline. This happened on the average of about twice a day.
70% of the time the photo and headline met that combination it was Fox News. A number of times they were immigrants, often they were stories not appearing as part of any other news feeds.
For example,
6/6/2024
Fox News
Illegal migrant from Venezuela allegedly shot NYPD officers at 'point-blank range,' ordered held without bail
Fox News
Judge reveals another twist in the case of Michigan viral Zoom video driver who pleaded clerical error
Fox News
Chicago suburb shuts down annual carnival indefinitely after teens cause ‘flash mob’ chaos
6/7/2024
The Daily Beast
Ex-NBA Player Delonte West Arrested After Collapsing While Fleeing Cops: Report
KDVR Denver (Fox affiliate)
Denver human trafficker sentenced to 448 years in prison
6/8/2024
Fox News
Far-left activist convicted in executions of 2 FBI agents headed to parole hearing with support from Dems
Reason.com
Viral Story About Bogus Viral Story Was Also Bogus
(in this case it had a photo of someone driving illegally and correcting the corrections to a previous story)
Miami Herald
Seeking revenge, Xavien Howard texted boy sexual photos of his mother: court records
Fox News
Bukele has El Salvador poised to prosper after stopping murder, migration cold in first term
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:16 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Whenever there was an image of a minority as part of the link to a story and in the headline that person was identified as a criminal I made note of the source and copied that headline. This happened on the average of about twice a day.
70% of the time the photo and headline met that combination it was Fox News. A number of times they were immigrants, often they were stories not appearing as part of any other news feeds.
For example,
6/6/2024
Fox News
Illegal migrant from Venezuela allegedly shot NYPD officers at 'point-blank range,' ordered held without bail
Fox News
Judge reveals another twist in the case of Michigan viral Zoom video driver who pleaded clerical error
Fox News
Chicago suburb shuts down annual carnival indefinitely after teens cause ‘flash mob’ chaos
6/7/2024
The Daily Beast
Ex-NBA Player Delonte West Arrested After Collapsing While Fleeing Cops: Report
KDVR Denver (Fox affiliate)
Denver human trafficker sentenced to 448 years in prison
6/8/2024
Fox News
Far-left activist convicted in executions of 2 FBI agents headed to parole hearing with support from Dems
Reason.com
Viral Story About Bogus Viral Story Was Also Bogus
(in this case it had a photo of someone driving illegally and correcting the corrections to a previous story)
Miami Herald
Seeking revenge, Xavien Howard texted boy sexual photos of his mother: court records
Fox News
Bukele has El Salvador poised to prosper after stopping murder, migration cold in first term
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:16 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Well, now that we're in the shit anyway, I guess I do sort of embrace accelerationism? Maybe, if the economy goes badly enough the Fascist fuckers of the USA will back off the Fascism a little?
I don't know. I'm grasping at straws here.
posted by sotonohito at 5:19 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I don't know. I'm grasping at straws here.
posted by sotonohito at 5:19 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
As a whole, I tend to think Phillipschall's take has the most explanatory power regarding the decisive margins this time around:
Once my anger and dismay and nauseated fear became a little manageable this morning, I found myself thinking about a student I had many years ago. I am dialing down specifics for their privacy here, so apologies if nay of this is a bit vague.
The student had chosen to write about how to address a well-known, difficult-to-treat disease with a high mortality rate.
The student's thesis was that the government was not spending enough money on researching a cure for this notoriously hard-to-treat illness, and they were struggling to support that thesis with relevant evidence or well-reasoned supporting arguments.
Students had been researching their topics and turning in source evaluations for a couple of weeks before drafting their thesis statements, so I had a sit-down with the student to talk through what this student had found in their sources. I hoped that we'd uncover some evidence or ideas int he sources that could strengthen this student's thesis idea or at least help identify a more supportable replacement.
In our consult, I learned from the student that they did not have any information on how much government funding was already out there in terms of research on this disease. The student also did not have much understanding of why the disease might be difficult to treat and perhaps impossible to "cure," at least in the short term. The student also did not seem to have found any information about what treatments were currently available or being researched.
So it wasn't clear why they'd concluded that government spending was insufficient or that more funding was the solution. It wasn't really even clear what he'd been finding in their sources. So I asked him what in his research had led him to his thesis idea.
The student responded that they just felt the government didn't care about helping people with the disease. When I asked further, the student told me, bravely in retrospect, that they had lost a beloved, close relative tot he disease. The student felt very strongly that their relative should not have died, and that the government did not care because otherwise their relative would not have had to die in this way.
We didn't make much progress on the paper, and I made the mistake of trying to steer the student to another topic, one they wouldn't feel very strongly about, which must have seemed dismissive of both their feelings and what they saw as their honest, passionate efforts.
But at the same time, there was just no real way to help the student make their topic choice work as an argument thesis. They weren't interested in making a research-driven argument so much as they wanted to express their pain and loss, and, more importantly, to find something that they could hold responsible for the unfairness of that pain and loss.
I think there are a fairly large number of people in the U.S. for whose lived experience of the current economic and social situation is very much like that student's lived experience. What they want is not policy, or reasoning, or difficult and complex answers, or even, really, knowledge.
I've also gotten a lot of students in recent years who want to write about inflation, and they struggle not only to define the causes of inflation or explain why their preferred solution might work, but also to find evidence or articulate explanations for the causes of inflation.
In all of these cases, folks perceive a real and painful thing: the high cost of housing, the injustice of illness or relative poverty, the vanishing sense of opportunity, and the limited pathways to get or maintain a sustainable economic life.
And what those folks seem to want is not evidence, reasoning, explanation, and the working out of constructive actions that might gradually or partially improve things.
No, what they want is a reassurance that some simple decision can reverse that unfairness and immediately banish that sense of fear and loss. And they think that whoever or whatever external entity to whom they assign causal power is not making that decision, and needs to be blamed and shamed for it.
Some of that is desperation, Some of that is feeling unheard. And a lot of that is a sense of personal powerlessness, which creates considerable appeal when someone unlike those in power claim to care, to hold vast power, and to have the magic power to make it all go away.
And all the better if the plodding, seemingly uncaring, dismissive folks that seem to have and withhold the power to help dislike that seemingly tough, decisive, absolutist promiser of protection, vindication, and forceful reassurance. Assigning blame is also reassuring.
This is all the more so if the reality is messy and complicated and the solutions aren't immediate or obvious.
posted by kewb at 5:24 AM on November 6 [86 favorites]
1. Consensus reality via corporate top-down journalism is done. Podcasters, tiktok, youtube, influencers, persona journalism is the new name of the game.
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
3. Running primarily on principles is a losing game. What is right and good doesn't drive people more than issues surrounding their immediate needs.
Once my anger and dismay and nauseated fear became a little manageable this morning, I found myself thinking about a student I had many years ago. I am dialing down specifics for their privacy here, so apologies if nay of this is a bit vague.
The student had chosen to write about how to address a well-known, difficult-to-treat disease with a high mortality rate.
The student's thesis was that the government was not spending enough money on researching a cure for this notoriously hard-to-treat illness, and they were struggling to support that thesis with relevant evidence or well-reasoned supporting arguments.
Students had been researching their topics and turning in source evaluations for a couple of weeks before drafting their thesis statements, so I had a sit-down with the student to talk through what this student had found in their sources. I hoped that we'd uncover some evidence or ideas int he sources that could strengthen this student's thesis idea or at least help identify a more supportable replacement.
In our consult, I learned from the student that they did not have any information on how much government funding was already out there in terms of research on this disease. The student also did not have much understanding of why the disease might be difficult to treat and perhaps impossible to "cure," at least in the short term. The student also did not seem to have found any information about what treatments were currently available or being researched.
So it wasn't clear why they'd concluded that government spending was insufficient or that more funding was the solution. It wasn't really even clear what he'd been finding in their sources. So I asked him what in his research had led him to his thesis idea.
The student responded that they just felt the government didn't care about helping people with the disease. When I asked further, the student told me, bravely in retrospect, that they had lost a beloved, close relative tot he disease. The student felt very strongly that their relative should not have died, and that the government did not care because otherwise their relative would not have had to die in this way.
We didn't make much progress on the paper, and I made the mistake of trying to steer the student to another topic, one they wouldn't feel very strongly about, which must have seemed dismissive of both their feelings and what they saw as their honest, passionate efforts.
But at the same time, there was just no real way to help the student make their topic choice work as an argument thesis. They weren't interested in making a research-driven argument so much as they wanted to express their pain and loss, and, more importantly, to find something that they could hold responsible for the unfairness of that pain and loss.
I think there are a fairly large number of people in the U.S. for whose lived experience of the current economic and social situation is very much like that student's lived experience. What they want is not policy, or reasoning, or difficult and complex answers, or even, really, knowledge.
I've also gotten a lot of students in recent years who want to write about inflation, and they struggle not only to define the causes of inflation or explain why their preferred solution might work, but also to find evidence or articulate explanations for the causes of inflation.
In all of these cases, folks perceive a real and painful thing: the high cost of housing, the injustice of illness or relative poverty, the vanishing sense of opportunity, and the limited pathways to get or maintain a sustainable economic life.
And what those folks seem to want is not evidence, reasoning, explanation, and the working out of constructive actions that might gradually or partially improve things.
No, what they want is a reassurance that some simple decision can reverse that unfairness and immediately banish that sense of fear and loss. And they think that whoever or whatever external entity to whom they assign causal power is not making that decision, and needs to be blamed and shamed for it.
Some of that is desperation, Some of that is feeling unheard. And a lot of that is a sense of personal powerlessness, which creates considerable appeal when someone unlike those in power claim to care, to hold vast power, and to have the magic power to make it all go away.
And all the better if the plodding, seemingly uncaring, dismissive folks that seem to have and withhold the power to help dislike that seemingly tough, decisive, absolutist promiser of protection, vindication, and forceful reassurance. Assigning blame is also reassuring.
This is all the more so if the reality is messy and complicated and the solutions aren't immediate or obvious.
posted by kewb at 5:24 AM on November 6 [86 favorites]
The maybe constructive response to this election:
Most people will vote for policy referenda that reflect constructive local action, even when "local" is as big as a whole state.
So I wonder if nonpartisan organizing to draft and support statewide referenda is the way forward. In states without referendum systems, one fights for the referendum power.
That could not only create some local action, but it also might gradually build something for future candidates to run on: protecting or enforcing what people have already voted for, especially when state or federal officials effectively override the referenda.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
posted by kewb at 5:29 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Most people will vote for policy referenda that reflect constructive local action, even when "local" is as big as a whole state.
So I wonder if nonpartisan organizing to draft and support statewide referenda is the way forward. In states without referendum systems, one fights for the referendum power.
That could not only create some local action, but it also might gradually build something for future candidates to run on: protecting or enforcing what people have already voted for, especially when state or federal officials effectively override the referenda.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
posted by kewb at 5:29 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
i still don't understand the basis for calling states that are still counting early/mail votes and flipped days after appear red in 2020
it's weird to not even see that mentioned or acknowledged anywhere and i really hope Harris doesn't pull a Gore and concede without waiting
also, people are stupid & selfish... if this is the choice half of the country wants to make and the other half couldn't show up to stop that, well, don't know what to tell you. I'd have elected a rotten egg if that's what was running against trump.
posted by kokaku at 5:30 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
it's weird to not even see that mentioned or acknowledged anywhere and i really hope Harris doesn't pull a Gore and concede without waiting
also, people are stupid & selfish... if this is the choice half of the country wants to make and the other half couldn't show up to stop that, well, don't know what to tell you. I'd have elected a rotten egg if that's what was running against trump.
posted by kokaku at 5:30 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Mod note: Hey all, there's an AskMe post that has several decent suggestions on how to deal with the US election results. Please check out and definitely spend some time taking card of yourself and your loved ones.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 5:32 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 5:32 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I've had an epiphany about this wolf's world. So many years I've been trying to be sane and responsible and pragmatic and polite and this is what it's gotten me. To be sane in an insane world is actually the height of insanity. So anyways, hi I'm god and this world is Jackass or some such. Whatever, sense and syntax are for normies. No more masks. The clock has chimed midnight, and we all must remove our masks. No mask! No mask!
posted by LeRoienJaune at 5:32 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by LeRoienJaune at 5:32 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
States get called early because the outcome would only change if the outstanding mail ballots would break very, very heavily for one candidate in ways that are statistically very improbable.
And in some cases, there are not enough outstanding ballots to shift the outcome even if they were -- impossibly -- 100% in favor of one candidate.
posted by kewb at 5:33 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
And in some cases, there are not enough outstanding ballots to shift the outcome even if they were -- impossibly -- 100% in favor of one candidate.
posted by kewb at 5:33 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I will say I can't imagine what it will be like to have Robert Kennedy Jr. in charge of NIH and the CDC. I've fought for twenty-some years for people to take vaccinations seriously. I've had the Kennedy bunch accuse me of promoting the killing of thousands of children.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:33 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:33 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
i still don't understand the basis for calling states that are still counting early/mail votes and flipped days after appear red in 2020
PA and WI are pretty close to done. Both way above 90% counted, and the lead there is presumably large enough to "call it." Though nothing is official yet, and it is theoretically possible I guess WI could flip?
No projected winner in e.g. AZ right now.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:33 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
PA and WI are pretty close to done. Both way above 90% counted, and the lead there is presumably large enough to "call it." Though nothing is official yet, and it is theoretically possible I guess WI could flip?
No projected winner in e.g. AZ right now.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 5:33 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
What's going to be frustrating is that when Social Security gets cut and Medicare gets cut and my black niece and my lesbian niece and my extended family who aren't well-off suffer in many ways, when the economy implodes and prices shoot up and jobs become harder to come by, I'm going to have to hold back when I look at people I know who voted for Trump and not scream I TOLD YOU SO.
I don't WANT to be after-the-fact right about him, about all of this. I don't want to play Cassandra. I don't WANT added suffering to demonstrate that they were wrong and I was right about the implications of what is happening.
They wouldn't believe me, anyway. Whatever happens, it will be Someone Else's Fault.
posted by delfin at 5:40 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I don't WANT to be after-the-fact right about him, about all of this. I don't want to play Cassandra. I don't WANT added suffering to demonstrate that they were wrong and I was right about the implications of what is happening.
They wouldn't believe me, anyway. Whatever happens, it will be Someone Else's Fault.
posted by delfin at 5:40 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
The fact of the matter is that each news desk has a bunch of PhDs who study this stuff tell them what the probability of a state flipping is. For PA, it’s very very low since the share of remaining votes has to be wildly disproportionate to the share of current votes
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:41 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:41 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
They call when it’s statistically incredibly unlikely that the outcome will change based on the remaining votes. It’s just a cheeky bit of math
posted by dis_integration at 5:43 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by dis_integration at 5:43 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
This is all the more so if the reality is messy and complicated and the solutions aren't immediate or obvious.
This is so much why people often vote better when it's closer to home - lots of people, statistically speaking, must have voted in favor of abortion rights and also for Trump, which is sheer madness but makes sense if you imagine people who do not have a strong grasp on how politics works at the national level. Unless you devote time and effort to understanding politics, unless you are a fluent reader or a careful listener, you aren't going to be reasoning well about how all this works, and that means that the Democratic "vote for us, we're less bad" strategy is doomed to fail, because it relies on everyone carefully reasoning that things cannot get better but they can certainly get worse and then being motivated to vote.
This is much like Brexit, where a combination of racism and people just believing impossible things that could never happen led to a vote for absolute, crashing disaster. Anyone with information could see that - no matter how they felt about the EU - Brexit itself could never be anything but a disaster because of the complexity of trade involved. Similarly, anyone with information knows that, eg, completely fucking up the civil service and creating huge tariffs will be disastrous. But if you are either a racist motivated by hatred or someone who says "well, things are bad, tariffs will create jobs by keeping foreign goods out and after all it should be easy to hire and fire in the civil service just like with bank tellers or bus drivers" you're going to go along and drive us right off a cliff.
posted by Frowner at 5:43 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
This is so much why people often vote better when it's closer to home - lots of people, statistically speaking, must have voted in favor of abortion rights and also for Trump, which is sheer madness but makes sense if you imagine people who do not have a strong grasp on how politics works at the national level. Unless you devote time and effort to understanding politics, unless you are a fluent reader or a careful listener, you aren't going to be reasoning well about how all this works, and that means that the Democratic "vote for us, we're less bad" strategy is doomed to fail, because it relies on everyone carefully reasoning that things cannot get better but they can certainly get worse and then being motivated to vote.
This is much like Brexit, where a combination of racism and people just believing impossible things that could never happen led to a vote for absolute, crashing disaster. Anyone with information could see that - no matter how they felt about the EU - Brexit itself could never be anything but a disaster because of the complexity of trade involved. Similarly, anyone with information knows that, eg, completely fucking up the civil service and creating huge tariffs will be disastrous. But if you are either a racist motivated by hatred or someone who says "well, things are bad, tariffs will create jobs by keeping foreign goods out and after all it should be easy to hire and fire in the civil service just like with bank tellers or bus drivers" you're going to go along and drive us right off a cliff.
posted by Frowner at 5:43 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
Yo I don’t think a lot of the people voting for trump, or in general, know what a tariff is
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:49 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:49 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
Matt Parker did a video on the "Red Mirage" and "Blue Shift" phenomenon, in which he also talks about calling a state. That bit is at 16:39.
posted by Pendragon at 5:51 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 5:51 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
If this is what people want, there is no version of this the Democrats can give them.
posted by argybarg at 5:53 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 5:53 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
I can't wrap my mind around this. I hope it won't turn out to be as bad as we can legitimately expect it to be.
posted by nicolin at 5:55 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by nicolin at 5:55 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
2. The American voter operates on a simplistic first level of maslow's. Are food, water, and shelter worse now than they were before? It's the king's fault, get a different king.
Right but like you/your parent/your child/your spouse/your sibling not dying because a rotting dead fetus cannot legally be removed from a person's body until that person is too septic to survive really seemed like it was a pretty low rung on the Maslow ladder. Clearly not, though. Guess we'll see how that all works out, now.
posted by Don Pepino at 5:55 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Right but like you/your parent/your child/your spouse/your sibling not dying because a rotting dead fetus cannot legally be removed from a person's body until that person is too septic to survive really seemed like it was a pretty low rung on the Maslow ladder. Clearly not, though. Guess we'll see how that all works out, now.
posted by Don Pepino at 5:55 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Two things:
1.I've already mentioned the absolute joyous experience I had being a pole worker on election. Am glad to mention two friends also had similar experiences, admittedly in the Democratic strong Savannah Georgia. But those experiences are a reminder to me that there's much hope, even on this darker morning.
2. I want to find whoever the Democratic leader is or wishes to means ask them what their plan is 2026 and 2028.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:57 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
1.I've already mentioned the absolute joyous experience I had being a pole worker on election. Am glad to mention two friends also had similar experiences, admittedly in the Democratic strong Savannah Georgia. But those experiences are a reminder to me that there's much hope, even on this darker morning.
2. I want to find whoever the Democratic leader is or wishes to means ask them what their plan is 2026 and 2028.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:57 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I watched the 5th game of the World Series and the Trump ad they ran was a doozy. Turned the sound off the 2nd time it came on but it had an impact on me.
posted by torokunai at 6:00 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by torokunai at 6:00 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
So I wonder if nonpartisan organizing to draft and support statewide referenda is the way forward. In states without referendum systems, one fights for the referendum power.
A lot of good things bubble up from the states -- such as gay marriage. And more-local changes have potential too.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
As an aside, I recently learned about the True Representation Movement, which seeks to "vote in candidates who will vote EXACTLY how their constituents--NOT their party or their donors --want them to vote."
posted by NotLost at 6:00 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
A lot of good things bubble up from the states -- such as gay marriage. And more-local changes have potential too.
One could imagine a candidate running as on that single issue: "I'm not here to give you an opinion or tell you what to do, I'm here to make sure you get what you demanded."
As an aside, I recently learned about the True Representation Movement, which seeks to "vote in candidates who will vote EXACTLY how their constituents--NOT their party or their donors --want them to vote."
posted by NotLost at 6:00 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Biden had more consensus among Democrats behind him than any Democratic President in history. He got stuff done in 2021 and 2022 with tiny Congressional majorities that Obama and Clinton couldn’t do with far larger majorities.
So, the most likely Democratic Party strategy for 2026 is “more of the same” and in 2028 “more of the same but with someone more popular at the top of the ticket.”
posted by MattD at 6:00 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
So, the most likely Democratic Party strategy for 2026 is “more of the same” and in 2028 “more of the same but with someone more popular at the top of the ticket.”
posted by MattD at 6:00 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
ask them what their plan is 2026 and 2028.
Thought those were canceled....
posted by sammyo at 6:00 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Thought those were canceled....
posted by sammyo at 6:00 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Yo I don’t think a lot of the people voting for trump, or in general, know what a tariff is
And neither does Trump. He demonstrated that very clearly.
My only cold comfort is that when they had some competent people around them and manning the rungs of government, they still shot their own feet full of holes because they could fuck up a grilled cheese sandwich. When it's nothing but dipshits as far as the eye can see running the ship... well, they will attempt some seriously vile shit and succeed at some seriously vile shit, but sheer incompetence on their part will be something of a hindrance.
posted by delfin at 6:01 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
And neither does Trump. He demonstrated that very clearly.
My only cold comfort is that when they had some competent people around them and manning the rungs of government, they still shot their own feet full of holes because they could fuck up a grilled cheese sandwich. When it's nothing but dipshits as far as the eye can see running the ship... well, they will attempt some seriously vile shit and succeed at some seriously vile shit, but sheer incompetence on their part will be something of a hindrance.
posted by delfin at 6:01 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Don Pepino: Right but like you/your parent/your child/your spouse/your sibling not dying because a rotting dead fetus cannot legally be removed from a person's body until that person is too septic to survive really seemed like it was a pretty low rung on the Maslow ladder. Clearly not, though. Guess we'll see how that all works out, now.
Until it happens to them, it's really easy to be very sure it won't happen to them, a good person who does everything right.
And when it happens to the person next door, some of them ward off the fear by asserting moral luck: the neighbor must have done something wrong.
posted by kewb at 6:01 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Until it happens to them, it's really easy to be very sure it won't happen to them, a good person who does everything right.
And when it happens to the person next door, some of them ward off the fear by asserting moral luck: the neighbor must have done something wrong.
posted by kewb at 6:01 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
The Dems need to inspire people to GOTV and that needs taking bold stances. There was no break from the current administration--none. And what people saw was a failure to do anything about student loans, a failure to punish Trump, a failure to hold any leadership accountable for January 6th, the complete loss of any moral high ground by arming a state executing a genocide, and no serious attempts to do anything about the supreme court.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:05 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:05 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
One of the comforts I’m taking is that so much of what Biden has done is deep in the bureaucratic weeds and Trump’s incompetents likely will have no idea how to find and reverse them, may not even notice they’re there. Like I can barely find reporting on the work he did to stabilize the Indian Health System even though I know it happened and how he did it. A lot of this stuff is going to be complicated to unravel and I just don’t see R’s having the political will to push through that. And you can wave your hands and say “oogie boogie the health system is gone!” but that doesn’t actually stop the machine of government.
posted by brook horse at 6:09 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 6:09 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I walked a weeping Older Daughter to school today. I said, "we live in Russia now. It's not America anymore. Up til now, you've been as queer and genderbending as you want to be, and some people cherish it, and everyone else has to at least tolerate it. Now? Things are different."
"I have to start masking," she said.
"Yep. They're coming after political enemies first, then journalists, then trans people. Just like Hitler did. He's their model. That's how evil they are. Who's the first person dragged off to the re-education camp?"
"The trans person."
"Nope. The person who says the emperor has no clothes. They're going to kill protestors: it's what they've been wanting to do since the Vietnam War. Trans person's next, but don't think you can fight City Hall, here. You're going to be 30 before anything seems normal again. People are going to tell you to stand up for righteousness and fight injustice, but I want you to survive. Do well in school, find a way to make a living, keep your head down, and don't date anyone, no matter how cute, who supports this."
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:10 AM on November 6 [51 favorites]
"I have to start masking," she said.
"Yep. They're coming after political enemies first, then journalists, then trans people. Just like Hitler did. He's their model. That's how evil they are. Who's the first person dragged off to the re-education camp?"
"The trans person."
"Nope. The person who says the emperor has no clothes. They're going to kill protestors: it's what they've been wanting to do since the Vietnam War. Trans person's next, but don't think you can fight City Hall, here. You're going to be 30 before anything seems normal again. People are going to tell you to stand up for righteousness and fight injustice, but I want you to survive. Do well in school, find a way to make a living, keep your head down, and don't date anyone, no matter how cute, who supports this."
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:10 AM on November 6 [51 favorites]
One comfort I am taking is that when California gets tabulated it may well erase Trump's popular vote lead. Which would make it three elections out of the last eight with popular vote not reflecting the winner.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:12 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I'm considering starting a GFM for an expedited passport so I have a chance of making it across a border before this incoming bunch of fascists define my very existing as a form of pornography and has me imprisoned for being transgender especially since I'm living across the street from a school.
I barely slept last night. I'm fucking scared. I have half of a plan to get to New Jersey from Philadelphia in the hopes that there I can leverage being born in the state to get an expedited name and birth certificate change, and then a speed-run on a new passport, and then get myself somewhere I might not go to prison just for not wanting to live in misery the way I did for a half-century, even if I have to live completely off the grid for a little bit until I can find a way.
My therapist offered free cancellations today because she's not sure she can be a decent therapist today.
I am a disabled, chronically ill trans person, and have contacted my doctor for paper copies of every prescription I have, in case I can't easily transfer them.
I'm a fucking target now. I have a go-bag packed when I didn't before - that's how I spent the morning.
Sorry if this is disjointed, but my brain is jumping in seven different directions.
posted by mephron at 6:13 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
I barely slept last night. I'm fucking scared. I have half of a plan to get to New Jersey from Philadelphia in the hopes that there I can leverage being born in the state to get an expedited name and birth certificate change, and then a speed-run on a new passport, and then get myself somewhere I might not go to prison just for not wanting to live in misery the way I did for a half-century, even if I have to live completely off the grid for a little bit until I can find a way.
My therapist offered free cancellations today because she's not sure she can be a decent therapist today.
I am a disabled, chronically ill trans person, and have contacted my doctor for paper copies of every prescription I have, in case I can't easily transfer them.
I'm a fucking target now. I have a go-bag packed when I didn't before - that's how I spent the morning.
Sorry if this is disjointed, but my brain is jumping in seven different directions.
posted by mephron at 6:13 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
that doesn’t actually stop the machine of government.
I've been trying to remind myself that from 2016 to 2020, we saw Trump trying hard to kill off various Government systems, but they kept marching along. He'll get farther with it this time, but good people will keep doing good work.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 6:15 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I've been trying to remind myself that from 2016 to 2020, we saw Trump trying hard to kill off various Government systems, but they kept marching along. He'll get farther with it this time, but good people will keep doing good work.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 6:15 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
JFC Biden better get some shit done with that Presidential Immunity now
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6
Pack the court baby! You've got 2 months!
posted by latkes at 6:16 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
posted by bathysaurus ferox at 3:22 AM on November 6
Pack the court baby! You've got 2 months!
posted by latkes at 6:16 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
My brain keeps flipping back to its analysis of 2016 in terms of it being as much of a static/dynamic battle than a left/right battle for many.
People who follow politics like junkies understand many of the nuances of these voting choices. Many, many others do not and choose not to. It's not rocket science to see people looking at their status, their purchasing power, their increasing lack of control over their lives and responding with CHANGE in a very loud voice.
Obama's slogan was HOPE AND CHANGE; at least symbolically, he grasped that. Trump 2016 painted himself as the outsider, the non-politician, the break with all of the previous norms up against the ultimate establishment candidate in Hillary. Things went to shit under Trump, and Biden won as a change from that. And now?
Harris painted herself as the 'change candidate' because Trump was a known quantity, and I remarked that a standing Veep depicted as the agent of change seemed very... odd. Too many people saw it the other way; things seemed bad (or at least their chosen media, whether mainstream or Mirror Universe, painted them that way), and they could vote for more of the same kind of path or for something radically different, for CHANGE regardless of what the change was, or whether it would be rational or good change or not.
The signs reading TRUMP LOW PRICES / KAMALA HIGH PRICES seemed overly simplistic and patronizing. But... perhaps not so much, as they reached their target audience.
posted by delfin at 6:16 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
People who follow politics like junkies understand many of the nuances of these voting choices. Many, many others do not and choose not to. It's not rocket science to see people looking at their status, their purchasing power, their increasing lack of control over their lives and responding with CHANGE in a very loud voice.
Obama's slogan was HOPE AND CHANGE; at least symbolically, he grasped that. Trump 2016 painted himself as the outsider, the non-politician, the break with all of the previous norms up against the ultimate establishment candidate in Hillary. Things went to shit under Trump, and Biden won as a change from that. And now?
Harris painted herself as the 'change candidate' because Trump was a known quantity, and I remarked that a standing Veep depicted as the agent of change seemed very... odd. Too many people saw it the other way; things seemed bad (or at least their chosen media, whether mainstream or Mirror Universe, painted them that way), and they could vote for more of the same kind of path or for something radically different, for CHANGE regardless of what the change was, or whether it would be rational or good change or not.
The signs reading TRUMP LOW PRICES / KAMALA HIGH PRICES seemed overly simplistic and patronizing. But... perhaps not so much, as they reached their target audience.
posted by delfin at 6:16 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
According to CNN Harris was +1 among voters 65 and older. Younger people shifted toward Trump, as did Latino men.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:18 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:18 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
There are clearly some who will agree with me in this thread and some who won't, but I firmly believe that this one wasn't Kamala's or the Democratic party's loss. It wasn't because she could have been or should have been "better" in some way, other than being a person of generational charisma like Obama.
It was a Trump win. Enough people in this country saw what the GOP was selling, and decided they were buying.
Sure, it's just like Brexit, where in the UK because the options were vague (i.e. no specific Brexit plan and language to vote on) and everyone voted for their own Fantasy Unicorn Brexit, America has voted for its Fantasy Unicorn Day-One Dictator.
Trump won because the polity of this nation truly voted FOR the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, most under the delusion that it only means the faces of people they don't like.
We're all going to find out, now.
Most of what's coming is not going to happen very fast, but one thing absolutely will. Moneyed interests (big corporations and media) are going to be absolutely tripping over themselves and each other to get in line. I can hear the clamor of it already.
posted by tclark at 6:19 AM on November 6 [44 favorites]
It was a Trump win. Enough people in this country saw what the GOP was selling, and decided they were buying.
Sure, it's just like Brexit, where in the UK because the options were vague (i.e. no specific Brexit plan and language to vote on) and everyone voted for their own Fantasy Unicorn Brexit, America has voted for its Fantasy Unicorn Day-One Dictator.
Trump won because the polity of this nation truly voted FOR the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, most under the delusion that it only means the faces of people they don't like.
We're all going to find out, now.
Most of what's coming is not going to happen very fast, but one thing absolutely will. Moneyed interests (big corporations and media) are going to be absolutely tripping over themselves and each other to get in line. I can hear the clamor of it already.
posted by tclark at 6:19 AM on November 6 [44 favorites]
I don't put this at Kamala's feet - I don't know who else with the D's could have run the campaign as well as she did. It's just that half the country is full of hate and those fuckers voted.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:22 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 6:22 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
Sure, it's just like Brexit, where in the UK because the options were vague (i.e. no specific Brexit plan and language to vote on) and everyone voted for their own Fantasy Unicorn Brexit, America has voted for its Fantasy Unicorn Day-One Dictator.
Sure in 2016 but he's a known quantity now.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:22 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Sure in 2016 but he's a known quantity now.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:22 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Most of the high-effort and charismatic evils Trump is promising (executing his enemies, mass deportations, banning vaccines, shutting down media) won’t happen. They just involve too much effort, and Trump is lazy. But imposing punitive tariffs and having CEOs beg him for exemptions will. He loves to make people beg. The result with be a corrupt oligarchy like Russia.
Meanwhile, people are too fascinated by Trump to let him go. They didn’t want to turn the page; they can’t take their eyes off the page.
posted by argybarg at 6:26 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Meanwhile, people are too fascinated by Trump to let him go. They didn’t want to turn the page; they can’t take their eyes off the page.
posted by argybarg at 6:26 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
those of you thinking the institutions will save us, the republicans will control every branch. Congress, senate, presidency, supreme courts. They didn’t have that full control last time. I fully expect the full reset of the new deal that the federalist society has been working for to happen in the first year. There will be a midterm backlash, but it will be too late. No more NLRB, no more CFPB, hell why not get rid of the SEC, EPA too, privatization of Social Security and Medicare, a national abortion ban, a return of sodomy laws. And so on
posted by dis_integration at 6:26 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 6:26 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
I will say I can't imagine what it will be like to have Robert Kennedy Jr. in charge of NIH and the CDC.
I guess the plus side of a Trump administration is that they don't care at all what they promised 10 minutes ago. RFK is yesterday's news: those agencies are owned by the drug companies now.
It was always a coin-flip, and it landed the wrong side up. It's not entirely unexpected, just shockingly horrible.
I did plan for this outcome, and it was to cancel every subscription I have, and not look at any news for years. I want to be the the least informed person, as information is just poison now.
posted by netowl at 6:26 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I guess the plus side of a Trump administration is that they don't care at all what they promised 10 minutes ago. RFK is yesterday's news: those agencies are owned by the drug companies now.
It was always a coin-flip, and it landed the wrong side up. It's not entirely unexpected, just shockingly horrible.
I did plan for this outcome, and it was to cancel every subscription I have, and not look at any news for years. I want to be the the least informed person, as information is just poison now.
posted by netowl at 6:26 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Reminder from Niko Stratis, a trans Canadian writer about "well, I''m just going to escape to Canada" folks.
I'm deeply disappointed in these results, but not surprised. I shouldn't be surprised. A majority of Americans want to be grifted, they want to be promised that everything is not their fault but the fault of fictionalized liberal party that wants to take away their freedoms, I guess? And fuck the rest of us, I guess?
I dunno. I got no answers. All I can do now is step up my own actions for preventing this from happening here. I may well fail at that but at least I can try.
I am so sorry, guys. I really thought a lot of folks weren't stupid enough to fall for the 2024 grift. Christ.
posted by Kitteh at 6:27 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I'm deeply disappointed in these results, but not surprised. I shouldn't be surprised. A majority of Americans want to be grifted, they want to be promised that everything is not their fault but the fault of fictionalized liberal party that wants to take away their freedoms, I guess? And fuck the rest of us, I guess?
I dunno. I got no answers. All I can do now is step up my own actions for preventing this from happening here. I may well fail at that but at least I can try.
I am so sorry, guys. I really thought a lot of folks weren't stupid enough to fall for the 2024 grift. Christ.
posted by Kitteh at 6:27 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
god fucking damn it
posted by clockzero at 6:30 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
posted by clockzero at 6:30 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
I don't think Harris represented a positive change to many voters, or indeed any change other than not being senile. If you liked the way things were going under Biden, you liked her. If you hated the way things had been going under Trump, you probably didn't especially like the way things had been going under Biden but you would have voted for him -- drool cup or no drool cup -- and so you would have voted for her. I did! That was me!
But I would be the last person to say "I'm not Donald Trump" is inspirational. And the few specifics Harris pushed out were not inspirational, to me -- her housing plans sounded like a recipe for more of the gentrification that is destroying American life for middle class people, her proud endorsement of our "most lethal" military in the world didn't exactly have me doing jazz hands at the TV, and then, you know, Gaza. I don't think America is losing a great potential president, to be really honest. I think America is losing a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide. Unfortunately, however, I think America is gaining a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide, who has already shown himself to be the worst president in a century. Can he go for the all time record? I think he can pull it off.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:31 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
But I would be the last person to say "I'm not Donald Trump" is inspirational. And the few specifics Harris pushed out were not inspirational, to me -- her housing plans sounded like a recipe for more of the gentrification that is destroying American life for middle class people, her proud endorsement of our "most lethal" military in the world didn't exactly have me doing jazz hands at the TV, and then, you know, Gaza. I don't think America is losing a great potential president, to be really honest. I think America is losing a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide. Unfortunately, however, I think America is gaining a stooge to corporate interests and a fan of genocide, who has already shown himself to be the worst president in a century. Can he go for the all time record? I think he can pull it off.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:31 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Trump won because the polity of this nation truly voted FOR the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, most under the delusion that it only means the faces of people they don't like.
My question is, what is the democratic tentpole policies going forward?
None of the cards they played had any pull:
Trump's crimes.
Jan 6
Climate Change
Equality
Abortion (sure, some states may have passed something, but they aren't counting on Democrats to uphold their rights. In most states, it didn't play.)
Trans/LGBTQ eqality
House leadership disarray
Celebrity endorsements (Swift, Beyonce, etc movie stars have less pull than Elon and DJT)
Green energy
Supreme Court malfeasance
College loans forgiveness
NATO/America's place ensuring the safety of the world
COVID killing off elderly DJT supporters: nope. nobody cares about COVID anymore.
income inequality
Nobody cared about any of this stuff, in terms of moving the national needle for elections. I don't know what Democrats campaign on going forward.
posted by The_Vegetables at 6:33 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
My question is, what is the democratic tentpole policies going forward?
None of the cards they played had any pull:
Trump's crimes.
Jan 6
Climate Change
Equality
Abortion (sure, some states may have passed something, but they aren't counting on Democrats to uphold their rights. In most states, it didn't play.)
Trans/LGBTQ eqality
House leadership disarray
Celebrity endorsements (Swift, Beyonce, etc movie stars have less pull than Elon and DJT)
Green energy
Supreme Court malfeasance
College loans forgiveness
NATO/America's place ensuring the safety of the world
COVID killing off elderly DJT supporters: nope. nobody cares about COVID anymore.
income inequality
Nobody cared about any of this stuff, in terms of moving the national needle for elections. I don't know what Democrats campaign on going forward.
posted by The_Vegetables at 6:33 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Take care of yourselves, everybody. Relax, take deep breaths, and care for your community. 🫂🫂🫂
posted by honey badger at 6:35 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by honey badger at 6:35 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
>And what people saw was a failure to do anything about student loans, a failure to punish Trump, a failure to hold any leadership accountable for January 6th, the complete loss of any moral high ground by arming a state executing a genocide, and no serious attempts to do anything about the supreme court.
wanting your own Personal Führer is great and all, but unsustainable. Now it's time to pay the Man. And He. Will. Be. Paid.
posted by torokunai at 6:36 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
wanting your own Personal Führer is great and all, but unsustainable. Now it's time to pay the Man. And He. Will. Be. Paid.
posted by torokunai at 6:36 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
The sentiment I'm seeing from some of my pro-Trump "friends" on SM is - they aren't delighted that Trump won, but they were worried about inflation, the economy, anti-semitism, Gaza, that kind of thing, and they're hopeful for a "better future".
That tracks with what people are analyzing here and why people voted for Trump over Harris. It's the economy, stupid — to reference 1992, just flipped.
I'm numb and processing this, but that does give me a tiny glimmer of hope. Some of those people might not be inherently bad, they're just worried about the economy and the state of the USA. They're tired of the establishment. They probably cringe when seeing Trump talk, but figure he's all blubber and no real substance. They're thinking short-term and neglecting to think long-term and see the bigger picture.
I guess that's what will get me through the day, anyway. Copium/hopium and all that.
posted by dubious_dude at 6:36 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
That tracks with what people are analyzing here and why people voted for Trump over Harris. It's the economy, stupid — to reference 1992, just flipped.
I'm numb and processing this, but that does give me a tiny glimmer of hope. Some of those people might not be inherently bad, they're just worried about the economy and the state of the USA. They're tired of the establishment. They probably cringe when seeing Trump talk, but figure he's all blubber and no real substance. They're thinking short-term and neglecting to think long-term and see the bigger picture.
I guess that's what will get me through the day, anyway. Copium/hopium and all that.
posted by dubious_dude at 6:36 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Mod note: For those looking to take their mind off a things for a bit, brainwanes made a post with "a few short fantasy stories about strangers joining forces to save each other, win vengeance, and discover tenderness."
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:38 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:38 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
kewb The thing is, the Democrats have a potential simple, easy, and TRUE, story to tell that might work:
"Things are bad, prices are high, and that's because of billionaire parasites taking all the hard work you do and giving you crumbs. I can't make prices go down, but I can raise your wages, force the parasites to take a loss to pay you more instead of raising prices to keep you poor, and tax those parasites so you have enough money."
They just don't use it because they can't go against their billionaire donor class.
Harris couldn't run on that because it's laughably bullshit. There's no way the Democratic Party is going to push through a massive wage increase, temporary price freeze, and massive billionaire tax and everyone knows it.
So Trump gets the benefit of not needing to be even remotely honest or say things related to reality. He can be up there saying prices are too high and he's going to lower them and no one will ever ask how the hell he intends to do that.
If Harris had said she'd bring prices down then she'd have been hit with a) why didn't Biden do it, and b) lulz you know you can't.
I don't know, and right now I'm so mad I hope gas its $20 a gallon for no reason except it will make all those assholes in giant trucks covered in Trump stickers suffer.
posted by sotonohito at 6:39 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
"Things are bad, prices are high, and that's because of billionaire parasites taking all the hard work you do and giving you crumbs. I can't make prices go down, but I can raise your wages, force the parasites to take a loss to pay you more instead of raising prices to keep you poor, and tax those parasites so you have enough money."
They just don't use it because they can't go against their billionaire donor class.
Harris couldn't run on that because it's laughably bullshit. There's no way the Democratic Party is going to push through a massive wage increase, temporary price freeze, and massive billionaire tax and everyone knows it.
So Trump gets the benefit of not needing to be even remotely honest or say things related to reality. He can be up there saying prices are too high and he's going to lower them and no one will ever ask how the hell he intends to do that.
If Harris had said she'd bring prices down then she'd have been hit with a) why didn't Biden do it, and b) lulz you know you can't.
I don't know, and right now I'm so mad I hope gas its $20 a gallon for no reason except it will make all those assholes in giant trucks covered in Trump stickers suffer.
posted by sotonohito at 6:39 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
Markets have been open for 7 minutes and the S&P500 is up over 2 percent. That's all that matters, right?
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:39 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:39 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
May I recommend for listening to this morning...
Jarvis Cocker - (C*nts Are Still) Running the World
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Jarvis Cocker - (C*nts Are Still) Running the World
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I want to be the the least informed person, as information is just poison now.
This seems prescient. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for perseverating on the fact we still do not have actual election returns yet, and nobody has conceded.
The inconsistent maps and guessed-at numbers across the various screens last night felt like information poison.
posted by edithkeeler at 6:40 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This seems prescient. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for perseverating on the fact we still do not have actual election returns yet, and nobody has conceded.
The inconsistent maps and guessed-at numbers across the various screens last night felt like information poison.
posted by edithkeeler at 6:40 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
None of the cards they played had any pull
I think it's because enough of America wants fascism, and we're all going to get it. It's no accident that within a decade or so after the last living memories of fascism departed from the Earth that people in the US -- and all over the world, note particularly the rise of AfD, Meloni, Wilders even in relatively progressive Europe -- figure it's time to try it again.
I said it here and elsewhere before: the new US fascism isn't going to look like Nazi Germany. It's going to look more like a hybrid of Francoist Spain (bulk replacement of government bureaucracy with theocratic weirdos) and Putinist Russia (well taken care of oligarchs running corrupt niche economic fiefdoms who will be allowed to stay on the right side of the window so long as they stay in line and don't make the boss look bad).
posted by tclark at 6:40 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I think it's because enough of America wants fascism, and we're all going to get it. It's no accident that within a decade or so after the last living memories of fascism departed from the Earth that people in the US -- and all over the world, note particularly the rise of AfD, Meloni, Wilders even in relatively progressive Europe -- figure it's time to try it again.
I said it here and elsewhere before: the new US fascism isn't going to look like Nazi Germany. It's going to look more like a hybrid of Francoist Spain (bulk replacement of government bureaucracy with theocratic weirdos) and Putinist Russia (well taken care of oligarchs running corrupt niche economic fiefdoms who will be allowed to stay on the right side of the window so long as they stay in line and don't make the boss look bad).
posted by tclark at 6:40 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Where’d those 20 million Biden 2020 voters go?
Social media troll agitprop, a great deal of it Russian in origin. Like this account. And this one. Filled with non-stop vitriolic anti-Democrat messaging. Zero anti-Trump messaging. Stumping for Stein and BRICS. With the occasional anti-Ukraine and anti-Taiwan message mixed in.
Dearborn Michigan, for example, voted 33% for Jill Stein over Democratic support for Israel.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:40 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Social media troll agitprop, a great deal of it Russian in origin. Like this account. And this one. Filled with non-stop vitriolic anti-Democrat messaging. Zero anti-Trump messaging. Stumping for Stein and BRICS. With the occasional anti-Ukraine and anti-Taiwan message mixed in.
Dearborn Michigan, for example, voted 33% for Jill Stein over Democratic support for Israel.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:40 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
sotonohito:
No one would buy that. I don’t buy it. It sounds like someone trying to sound like a populist.
posted by argybarg at 6:41 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
No one would buy that. I don’t buy it. It sounds like someone trying to sound like a populist.
posted by argybarg at 6:41 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Well, fuck...
Stopped watching last night, before things went really bad.
FUCK!!!
posted by Windopaene at 6:41 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Stopped watching last night, before things went really bad.
FUCK!!!
posted by Windopaene at 6:41 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
neither aaron nor moses saw the promised land. i will not either. i will be okay with this.
posted by i used to be someone else at 6:41 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by i used to be someone else at 6:41 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Some of those people might not be inherently bad, they're just worried about the economy and the state of the USA
The problem is, it doesn't matter what someone's motivations for supporting Trump are, be it passively or actively. It still has the same consequence.
You know the old story about how in Germany, there is a word for the folks who didn't support Hitler out of genuine antisemitism, but did so because they were worried about the economy, or the communists, or whatever? They call them "Nazis", because no one cares about their reasons, anymore.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 6:41 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
Folks in here wroth about third parties when the margins we are seeing show that they did not make one whit of difference... the binkie-like fixation on something that literally does not numerically matter doesn't inspire confidence in your judgment as an adult.
Solidarity to affected people who are frightened and regrouping today.
posted by dusty potato at 6:42 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Solidarity to affected people who are frightened and regrouping today.
posted by dusty potato at 6:42 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
A new Trump nickname coined on another web forum site: "Groper Cleveland".
posted by zaixfeep at 6:42 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by zaixfeep at 6:42 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Welcome to the Jackpot.
posted by tclark at 6:43 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
posted by tclark at 6:43 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Stupid people win. Because there are more of them.
posted by valkane at 6:44 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by valkane at 6:44 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
We’re a country of white supremacy, racism, and staggering misogyny. It’s…. Bracing … to know that half the citizens primary motivation in their lives is to inflict as much suffering as possible on people they have no interaction with,
no matter what the cost to themselves, their close ones, and of course those that will suffer (yea yea I know a lot don’t vote but it doesn’t change anything).
And that same half seems to have a bone deep desire to be ruled by the powerful.
posted by WatTylerJr at 6:45 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
no matter what the cost to themselves, their close ones, and of course those that will suffer (yea yea I know a lot don’t vote but it doesn’t change anything).
And that same half seems to have a bone deep desire to be ruled by the powerful.
posted by WatTylerJr at 6:45 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I’m so sorry about your arsehole neighbours. Bloody awful day.
May the next four years pass quickly and with minimal damage.
posted by h00py at 6:47 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
May the next four years pass quickly and with minimal damage.
posted by h00py at 6:47 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
The sentiment I'm seeing from some of my pro-Trump "friends" on SM is - they aren't delighted that Trump won, but they were worried about inflation, the economy, anti-semitism, Gaza, that kind of thing, and they're hopeful for a "better future".
Oh, there are people who are delighted Trump won. There's one such friend on a (D) friend of mine on SM who is positively gleeful. This dude even reached out to a second cousin of mine to talk smack with her about me and sent me a screenshot to say "see, your family can't stand you, suck it libs".
So what. He said he sent it to my DMs "so I don't embarrass you" and I posted it with a note that I didn't care, she was someone I met once when I was about seven; and what did it say of HIM that that's how he was spending this win?
....The real fallout came at work today; we've been trying to hire some staff at the clinic where I work. One was due to come in for a second interview today, but called me this morning to withdraw her application. The main reason was the schedule....but she did add that the election outcome had her a little uneasy about working at our clinic. So now this clinic, which is catering to women for all their health needs, might have difficulty finding staff because of ONE procedure we do.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:48 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
Oh, there are people who are delighted Trump won. There's one such friend on a (D) friend of mine on SM who is positively gleeful. This dude even reached out to a second cousin of mine to talk smack with her about me and sent me a screenshot to say "see, your family can't stand you, suck it libs".
So what. He said he sent it to my DMs "so I don't embarrass you" and I posted it with a note that I didn't care, she was someone I met once when I was about seven; and what did it say of HIM that that's how he was spending this win?
....The real fallout came at work today; we've been trying to hire some staff at the clinic where I work. One was due to come in for a second interview today, but called me this morning to withdraw her application. The main reason was the schedule....but she did add that the election outcome had her a little uneasy about working at our clinic. So now this clinic, which is catering to women for all their health needs, might have difficulty finding staff because of ONE procedure we do.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:48 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
...It was that FUCKING SQUIRREL, wasn't it?
posted by delfin at 6:48 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by delfin at 6:48 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
While I only canvassed a handful of times, which – given how many people don't open the door – means I only managed to talk to maybe a dozen undecided voters, the experience confirmed reporting I've consumed that suggests the term "swing voter"' is misguided. It imagines a left pole and a right pole, and a voter who hangs in the middle who may be swayed more one direction or another. But, the undecided voters I talked with didn't have any consistency in terms of which issues were top of mind, and they themselves were pretty diverse in terms of gender, race, etc. As people have already pointed out, the Harris campaign (which was largely just the Biden campaign - she basically kept his whole misguided team) ran a typical DNC play for "the center." But that only works if undecided voters are all in the middle. And it obviously does sometimes work - but it's risky. A better strategy is finding a message/vision for the future that can speak to a broad range of people.
Of course, Harris didn't have a ton of time to come up with a compelling story about her campaign - if I blame any individuals more than others for what has happened, it's Biden and his inner circle. May he be haunted by his egotism and never get another good night's rest.
The problem though that makes me most worried for the future is our media landscape. A large percentage (maybe a plurality?) of Americans don't have a good source of local news. Most of Gen Z and younger Millennials get their news from social media platforms run by algorithms designed to enrage you, where sensationalist "hot takes" get the most traction. This doesn't entirely explain Trump's win, but it certainly played a part, and it's not great for our future. The answer isn't "better content" - the platforms are rigged to be unhealthy.
Finally - you can't hide from your weaknesses. Harris and co. kept saying "When we fight, we win!" but the campaign largely avoided fights until towards the end of the campaign when it was probably too late. In the beginning Harris seemed bold, she picked Walz who seemed a good fighter - and then he largely disappeared. Rallies are fine, but rallies are mainly attended by the already converted. Meanwhile, lots of voters wondered "Why hasn't Harris done the things she says she wants to do if she was VP for four years?" We (the largely educated and progressive users of Metafilter) can pick the holes in that question, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a major question top of many voters minds, but the campaign kept dodging it. I think the shadow of COVID came up once by Walz in the debate, but generally the word seemed taboo - I understand why, but I think it was a mistake - people quickly forget that the first couple of years of the Biden-Harris administration was focused on the pandemic and the IRA. Then they lost control of the House. Why they avoided explaining this to voters strikes me as a larger mistake than her refusal to engage with voters concerned with the genocide in Gaza, though that was also a mistake.
posted by coffeecat at 6:50 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Of course, Harris didn't have a ton of time to come up with a compelling story about her campaign - if I blame any individuals more than others for what has happened, it's Biden and his inner circle. May he be haunted by his egotism and never get another good night's rest.
The problem though that makes me most worried for the future is our media landscape. A large percentage (maybe a plurality?) of Americans don't have a good source of local news. Most of Gen Z and younger Millennials get their news from social media platforms run by algorithms designed to enrage you, where sensationalist "hot takes" get the most traction. This doesn't entirely explain Trump's win, but it certainly played a part, and it's not great for our future. The answer isn't "better content" - the platforms are rigged to be unhealthy.
Finally - you can't hide from your weaknesses. Harris and co. kept saying "When we fight, we win!" but the campaign largely avoided fights until towards the end of the campaign when it was probably too late. In the beginning Harris seemed bold, she picked Walz who seemed a good fighter - and then he largely disappeared. Rallies are fine, but rallies are mainly attended by the already converted. Meanwhile, lots of voters wondered "Why hasn't Harris done the things she says she wants to do if she was VP for four years?" We (the largely educated and progressive users of Metafilter) can pick the holes in that question, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a major question top of many voters minds, but the campaign kept dodging it. I think the shadow of COVID came up once by Walz in the debate, but generally the word seemed taboo - I understand why, but I think it was a mistake - people quickly forget that the first couple of years of the Biden-Harris administration was focused on the pandemic and the IRA. Then they lost control of the House. Why they avoided explaining this to voters strikes me as a larger mistake than her refusal to engage with voters concerned with the genocide in Gaza, though that was also a mistake.
posted by coffeecat at 6:50 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
US fascism isn't going to look like Nazi Germany
With Theil and Musk given free reign, we can expect a social credit system to emerge, scraped from social media. Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments. It would be very wise to lock that shit down ASAP if you can.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
With Theil and Musk given free reign, we can expect a social credit system to emerge, scraped from social media. Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments. It would be very wise to lock that shit down ASAP if you can.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:51 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I guess at this point the real question is how much Project 2025 can actually be implemented. CAN he actually fire ten zillion federal workers and replace them with MAGA cultists, or is that just wishful thinking on their part?
argybarg That was kind of my point. No one would believe it because the Democrats are self evidently NOT going to do that, don't want to do that, and will never do that.
Trump can lie about it becuase no one expects him to be honest.
posted by sotonohito at 6:53 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
argybarg That was kind of my point. No one would believe it because the Democrats are self evidently NOT going to do that, don't want to do that, and will never do that.
Trump can lie about it becuase no one expects him to be honest.
posted by sotonohito at 6:53 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments.
Would love to be on a list because of something I said instead of my fucking body, thanks.
posted by phunniemee at 6:54 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
Would love to be on a list because of something I said instead of my fucking body, thanks.
posted by phunniemee at 6:54 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
The problem though that makes me most worried for the future is our media landscape. A large percentage (maybe a plurality?) of Americans don't have a good source of local news. Most of Gen Z and younger Millennials get their news from social media platforms run by algorithms designed to enrage you, where sensationalist "hot takes" get the most traction. This doesn't entirely explain Trump's win, but it certainly played a part, and it's not great for our future. The answer isn't "better content" - the platforms are rigged to be unhealthy.
Counterpoint: The only reason the youth in the US were enraged about Palestine was because of social media. There's no way those pro-palestinian messages are getting to people 20 years ago.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:55 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Counterpoint: The only reason the youth in the US were enraged about Palestine was because of social media. There's no way those pro-palestinian messages are getting to people 20 years ago.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:55 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I'm not sure I have anything left but doomerism this morning.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:57 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:57 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
52% voter turnout in my state, Washington, where voting is easier than most places. I don't know what it will take to get people to give a fuck.52% is based on ballots counted so far, but there are almost a million ballots left to count. Turnout will probably be close to 70% of registered voters in WA when counting is done.
National turnout and popular vote numbers are also bogus until the west coast states finish counting all their ballots.
posted by mbrubeck at 6:58 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
A friend of mine lives in a red part of my blue state, and spends a lot of time hiking in neighboring states. He says, “you can’t talk politics because they have a completely different frame of reference. They are way down the conspiracy rabbit hole. And they say, ‘Trump is strong. We need a strong president.’ And also, ‘Trump is rich and he’s going to make everyone rich.’”
Some of the people saying this are immigrants.
posted by rednikki at 6:59 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
Some of the people saying this are immigrants.
posted by rednikki at 6:59 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
I mean, I was enraged about Palestine as a youth well before social media existed. As were I'm sure many people on Metafilter. Mass movements existed before social media. I don't think we should embrace a toxic tool just because sometimes it generates something we agree with.
posted by coffeecat at 6:59 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 6:59 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
It's probably poor compensation for what seems to be a disaster but the reality is that unless they truly go full fascist president for life which I don't think they have the support for this is the last Trump election ever. Whatever ability he has to tap into this inarticulate rage in conservatives seem to be missing from any presumptive successor. Vance is phenomenally unpopular and not charismatic at all so unless Trump does the best job ever has a massive uphill climb for 2028.
The truth is that all of the problems Trump promises to fix aren't fixable given his party's unwillingness to actually govern effectively. They don't have anything resembling a plan to "replace ACA" or solve the economic hardship a lot of Americans face.
What will happen is that your 401k will get a boost over the next 2 years because that's what happens with virtually every presidency and then an inevitable economic downterm will impact years 3 and 4 (hopefully without a worldwide public health emergency attached) and people will want change. For Americans who don't have stocks or significant retirement savings there is really nothing being offered so the economic malaise and uncertainty they feel now will still be there 4 years from now and it will be time for the pendulum to shift yet again.
Regarding Hispanic Males there is 100% going to be a tendency to generalize and engage in reductionism and I strongly encourage people not just go with a simplistic "hispanic culture is attracted to machismo and strongman politics", that might be true for some within that community but I think you can also view it from a perspective that for many hispanic men they closely align with white working class men on a host of demographic elements and that you have to create a value proposition that addresses their wants and fears. Othering them by calling them stupid is not a way to win them back as a core constituent group and in broad areas of the US they are critical. Framing any appeal to them based upon some sort of perceived solidarity with immigrant populations is probably a bad idea as many Hispanic Americans have been Americans for generations and perceive no real connection with recent immigrants of any population group so appeals to "Trump will deport you and your family" just come across as really transparent fearmongering to them.
Honestly until people see that there is an honest attempt to really return to a society where the implied promise is that your children will be more successful than you I think it's going to be a hard time regaining the trust of some of these population groups and combating the "cures" offered by right-wing demagogues. Right now a lot of Americans don't percieve a way to achieve the American dream no matter how hard they work and until you provide a path towards solving that problem they will continue to latch onto people that are selling them snake oil because desperate people will always buy snake oil.
posted by vuron at 6:59 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
The truth is that all of the problems Trump promises to fix aren't fixable given his party's unwillingness to actually govern effectively. They don't have anything resembling a plan to "replace ACA" or solve the economic hardship a lot of Americans face.
What will happen is that your 401k will get a boost over the next 2 years because that's what happens with virtually every presidency and then an inevitable economic downterm will impact years 3 and 4 (hopefully without a worldwide public health emergency attached) and people will want change. For Americans who don't have stocks or significant retirement savings there is really nothing being offered so the economic malaise and uncertainty they feel now will still be there 4 years from now and it will be time for the pendulum to shift yet again.
Regarding Hispanic Males there is 100% going to be a tendency to generalize and engage in reductionism and I strongly encourage people not just go with a simplistic "hispanic culture is attracted to machismo and strongman politics", that might be true for some within that community but I think you can also view it from a perspective that for many hispanic men they closely align with white working class men on a host of demographic elements and that you have to create a value proposition that addresses their wants and fears. Othering them by calling them stupid is not a way to win them back as a core constituent group and in broad areas of the US they are critical. Framing any appeal to them based upon some sort of perceived solidarity with immigrant populations is probably a bad idea as many Hispanic Americans have been Americans for generations and perceive no real connection with recent immigrants of any population group so appeals to "Trump will deport you and your family" just come across as really transparent fearmongering to them.
Honestly until people see that there is an honest attempt to really return to a society where the implied promise is that your children will be more successful than you I think it's going to be a hard time regaining the trust of some of these population groups and combating the "cures" offered by right-wing demagogues. Right now a lot of Americans don't percieve a way to achieve the American dream no matter how hard they work and until you provide a path towards solving that problem they will continue to latch onto people that are selling them snake oil because desperate people will always buy snake oil.
posted by vuron at 6:59 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I don't know what Democrats campaign on going forward.
I heard an analysis this morning on CBC that did speak to me.
It was that no one trusts politicians, and so right now whoever sounds the least like a politician gets a bunch of support. I think here in Canada Justin Trudeau is making this mistake over and over (and so is Jagmeet Singh, and the Ontario Liberals and NDP.) I think this explains the NDP win in Manitoba too, so it's not just a right/left thing.
It's stylistic populism. Maybe someone will latch on to sounding different for the next cycle. (Not up here in time, I don't think, unless JT resigns which he clearly is not about it.)
posted by warriorqueen at 6:59 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
I heard an analysis this morning on CBC that did speak to me.
It was that no one trusts politicians, and so right now whoever sounds the least like a politician gets a bunch of support. I think here in Canada Justin Trudeau is making this mistake over and over (and so is Jagmeet Singh, and the Ontario Liberals and NDP.) I think this explains the NDP win in Manitoba too, so it's not just a right/left thing.
It's stylistic populism. Maybe someone will latch on to sounding different for the next cycle. (Not up here in time, I don't think, unless JT resigns which he clearly is not about it.)
posted by warriorqueen at 6:59 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
i think we need to face the truth - we do not have an effective opposition party in this country - we will not win until we get one and the democratic party is not it
also - the republicans are going to find that they don't have an effective governing party either - they will split over many things, including immigration - the truth is the business interests are profiting a lot from the current immigration mess and the extremists who want everyone out are going to be betrayed
truth is the world is going to be a vastly different place in 4 years and who knows what's going to happen except that we won't have a government or an opposition who will be up to it
posted by pyramid termite at 7:00 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
also - the republicans are going to find that they don't have an effective governing party either - they will split over many things, including immigration - the truth is the business interests are profiting a lot from the current immigration mess and the extremists who want everyone out are going to be betrayed
truth is the world is going to be a vastly different place in 4 years and who knows what's going to happen except that we won't have a government or an opposition who will be up to it
posted by pyramid termite at 7:00 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Why should moderates offer an olive branch to extremists when it's clear that we were betrayed from within, shouldn't it be the other way around?
As much as I would love it if the democratic party suddenly embraced the idea that it's not the Reagan Republican Lite! Party and actually stood somewhere to the left of Mitt Romney, even just a little, I'm not seeing any evidence that this would actually win them an election. We can't know how many people abstained from the election because they thought Harris was too right-wing -- it could literally be any number between 20 million and zero -- but we know how many people voted for ostensibly left-wing third party candidates. It wasn't enough to make Harris the winner if they'd voted for her. I hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to come up with some other reason why Harris lost; it's not the leftists.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:01 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
As much as I would love it if the democratic party suddenly embraced the idea that it's not the Reagan Republican Lite! Party and actually stood somewhere to the left of Mitt Romney, even just a little, I'm not seeing any evidence that this would actually win them an election. We can't know how many people abstained from the election because they thought Harris was too right-wing -- it could literally be any number between 20 million and zero -- but we know how many people voted for ostensibly left-wing third party candidates. It wasn't enough to make Harris the winner if they'd voted for her. I hate to break it to you, but you're going to have to come up with some other reason why Harris lost; it's not the leftists.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:01 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
On a different note -
I'm seeing a lot of defeatism in this thread, and I get that - I feel pretty forlorn too. But we haven't descended into fascism yet, even if we live in a country that elected a fascist. If anything gives me any hope right now, it's that just like the GOP is (unfortunately) better prepped for a second Trump presidency, so is the grassroots on the left. The sheer number of people who volunteered for Harris suggests that there are a lot of people right now with energy to fight against what Trump represents. I'm not a pollyanna (believe me), I feel in my bones that things are certainly going to be bad in the near future, but how bad is still to be determined. We all still have some agency here, however constrained it may be.
posted by coffeecat at 7:06 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
I'm seeing a lot of defeatism in this thread, and I get that - I feel pretty forlorn too. But we haven't descended into fascism yet, even if we live in a country that elected a fascist. If anything gives me any hope right now, it's that just like the GOP is (unfortunately) better prepped for a second Trump presidency, so is the grassroots on the left. The sheer number of people who volunteered for Harris suggests that there are a lot of people right now with energy to fight against what Trump represents. I'm not a pollyanna (believe me), I feel in my bones that things are certainly going to be bad in the near future, but how bad is still to be determined. We all still have some agency here, however constrained it may be.
posted by coffeecat at 7:06 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
Mod note: Comment removed for telling another user to fuck off. That goes against the guidelines, do not do that.
And please keep the Palestine and Gaza discussion civil. It’s been discussed for months, no need to be nasty to one another.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:06 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
And please keep the Palestine and Gaza discussion civil. It’s been discussed for months, no need to be nasty to one another.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:06 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
The thing is, the Democrats have a potential simple, easy, and TRUE, story to tell that might work:
I'll start my response with the caveat that nobody knows anything, and the myriad conflicting theories we've seen over the past day sort of prove that.
I do think this election was about stories, and that Trump has a strong, adaptable, and mythic story. We like myths! The whole problem with inflation is, people like myths and so don't understand the real story is boring and complicated. Inflation is bad--so punishing our enemies with tariffs must be good! I think we've all had these conversations with people, where we've realized their political opinions don't seem to have any grounding in reality.
But I struggle to think of what Harris's story was. Like, you could be mean and say it was "Let's have more Biden!" But in a mythic story, you start over here, and then there's a great change, and you end up over there. What was that story? Maybe we could say the story was, "Once there was a monster named Trump, and only one woman can stop him"--which of course is a story we heard before. But that story doesn't explain why things feel bad now, and doesn't resonate with our anti-incumbency bias. We needed a story about Biden. We knew half of it--once there was a weak old man. But Harris would not or could not tell the second half of that story. Could she have won with a story like that?
I'm not sure "billionaires are bad" is a good story. We don't have...I don't know, we don't have enough anti-wealth sentiment for that story to really land. We still all hope to be lottery winners one day. "Immigrants are bad" is a story that we've seen illustrated by both parties for decades, and so it has the benefit of familiarity--outsiders we can get mad at.
Maybe--and again, this is just another dumb random person on the internet with a random theory--we can trace the narrative problem back to the COVID checks. The whole thing where we thought Biden was going to send X dollars but he really sent Y instead. "I am a generous, beneficent leader giving you presents with both hands" is an interesting story we haven't seen much. People have made the point that Harris was promising small changes around the margins. Maybe the promise should have been bountiful generosity. "Once there was a weak old man named Biden who wouldn't give you things, but I, your mother-figure, will give you everything you need."
But...well. I guess that doesn't matter now.
posted by mittens at 7:07 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I'll start my response with the caveat that nobody knows anything, and the myriad conflicting theories we've seen over the past day sort of prove that.
I do think this election was about stories, and that Trump has a strong, adaptable, and mythic story. We like myths! The whole problem with inflation is, people like myths and so don't understand the real story is boring and complicated. Inflation is bad--so punishing our enemies with tariffs must be good! I think we've all had these conversations with people, where we've realized their political opinions don't seem to have any grounding in reality.
But I struggle to think of what Harris's story was. Like, you could be mean and say it was "Let's have more Biden!" But in a mythic story, you start over here, and then there's a great change, and you end up over there. What was that story? Maybe we could say the story was, "Once there was a monster named Trump, and only one woman can stop him"--which of course is a story we heard before. But that story doesn't explain why things feel bad now, and doesn't resonate with our anti-incumbency bias. We needed a story about Biden. We knew half of it--once there was a weak old man. But Harris would not or could not tell the second half of that story. Could she have won with a story like that?
I'm not sure "billionaires are bad" is a good story. We don't have...I don't know, we don't have enough anti-wealth sentiment for that story to really land. We still all hope to be lottery winners one day. "Immigrants are bad" is a story that we've seen illustrated by both parties for decades, and so it has the benefit of familiarity--outsiders we can get mad at.
Maybe--and again, this is just another dumb random person on the internet with a random theory--we can trace the narrative problem back to the COVID checks. The whole thing where we thought Biden was going to send X dollars but he really sent Y instead. "I am a generous, beneficent leader giving you presents with both hands" is an interesting story we haven't seen much. People have made the point that Harris was promising small changes around the margins. Maybe the promise should have been bountiful generosity. "Once there was a weak old man named Biden who wouldn't give you things, but I, your mother-figure, will give you everything you need."
But...well. I guess that doesn't matter now.
posted by mittens at 7:07 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
There's probably no greater example of political ignorance than to think that student loan forgiveness is a winning issue. It is enraging to most people who paid off their student loans, worked their way through college, paid for their kids' college out of pocket, got their tuition paid for past (GI Bill) or future (ROTC, service academy) military service, and/or fought their way to a decent living without going to college.
posted by MattD at 7:10 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by MattD at 7:10 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
this is what people want, there is no version of this the Democrats can give them.
There’s a ton of things the Democrats could be offering that they’re not offering. The problem is the Democrats are hesitantly trying not to offend the middle, rather than offering big ideas that might appeal to people.
National rent control. Forcing banks back to allowing assumable mortgages. Actual controls on how much prices can be raised from year to year on staple items. A cut on gas taxes, with companies rather than people footing the bill for environmental issues. Giving the NLRB some actual teeth and real enforcement power. Making wage theft a criminal rather than civil charge.
There’s a lot of things that could be offered. But they upset the donor class, so the Democrats don’t.
posted by corb at 7:12 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]
There’s a ton of things the Democrats could be offering that they’re not offering. The problem is the Democrats are hesitantly trying not to offend the middle, rather than offering big ideas that might appeal to people.
National rent control. Forcing banks back to allowing assumable mortgages. Actual controls on how much prices can be raised from year to year on staple items. A cut on gas taxes, with companies rather than people footing the bill for environmental issues. Giving the NLRB some actual teeth and real enforcement power. Making wage theft a criminal rather than civil charge.
There’s a lot of things that could be offered. But they upset the donor class, so the Democrats don’t.
posted by corb at 7:12 AM on November 6 [35 favorites]
At a human level I am deeply bothered by the fact that nobody in the Trump Team has called out his obvious mental decline. I don't know if they're keeping that in the back pocket for 25th reasons OR hoping he strokes out or wtf.
I don't believe he's actually got working close relationships with anyone in his family (not in the way anyone here thinks of close relationships anyway) so I don't think it falls under not wanting to see it but I just don't get how nobody is addressing it.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 7:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I don't believe he's actually got working close relationships with anyone in his family (not in the way anyone here thinks of close relationships anyway) so I don't think it falls under not wanting to see it but I just don't get how nobody is addressing it.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 7:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
mittens:
Trump has gotten by on three- our four-word slogans that are mostly short words with an active verb. "Build the wall." "Drain the swamp." "Lock her up." "Make America great again." "Fight." "Trump will fix it." "The art of the deal." "You're fired."
You could yell these slogans out a truck window and people will understand them. People with limited English literacy understand them.
There is no equivalent cluster of dirt-simple, galvanizing messages for the Democrats, and no one I've ever talked to has been able to come up with some. I know there are people who believe variations on "(tax/fuck/eat) the rich" will do it but I'm skeptical. Getting Americans furious at billionaires feels like an old guy hoping the kids will have a punk rock revolution — it's tired.
And I'm not sure I want slogans that I can yell out of a truck window. I'll just tune out of politics before I have to do that.
posted by argybarg at 7:15 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Trump has gotten by on three- our four-word slogans that are mostly short words with an active verb. "Build the wall." "Drain the swamp." "Lock her up." "Make America great again." "Fight." "Trump will fix it." "The art of the deal." "You're fired."
You could yell these slogans out a truck window and people will understand them. People with limited English literacy understand them.
There is no equivalent cluster of dirt-simple, galvanizing messages for the Democrats, and no one I've ever talked to has been able to come up with some. I know there are people who believe variations on "(tax/fuck/eat) the rich" will do it but I'm skeptical. Getting Americans furious at billionaires feels like an old guy hoping the kids will have a punk rock revolution — it's tired.
And I'm not sure I want slogans that I can yell out of a truck window. I'll just tune out of politics before I have to do that.
posted by argybarg at 7:15 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
You can't expect to gain support as the moral candidate while actively abetting atrocities. There was a simple way to defuse Palestine as an issue. It wasn't cheering on the cops as they beat protestors.
Obviously just on numbers, Palestine didn't throw the election. But I would argue that Harris's response was demoralizing and added to a general sense of corruption and failure. I mean, for christ's sake, anyone with a social media account could literally see feeds of mutilated child corpses and people getting marched off to their executions, and American funding for this was loudly and proudly trumpeted by the administration. Given AIPAC, arms manufacturers and crazy Christians, I'm not sure that Biden or Harris had the political power to do anything else, but that just points to how corrupt our system is.
It's not like the US hasn't done terrible things abroad for pretty much its entire existence, but this is the first time in my life that atrocities have been both highly visible all day every day to the average person and loudly defended by the administration. That has an effect, because even people who don't really care that much and who aren't that engaged on foreign policy get a general vibe of "what is US foreign policy? giving our allies money to burn young men in their beds and not caring". That is not a strong GOTV strategy.
Again, I'm not saying this was the factor, because it obviously wasn't, but this political moment is one of disaffection, confusion, misery, etc, and the revealed US Palestine policy sure didn't help with that.
posted by Frowner at 7:15 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Obviously just on numbers, Palestine didn't throw the election. But I would argue that Harris's response was demoralizing and added to a general sense of corruption and failure. I mean, for christ's sake, anyone with a social media account could literally see feeds of mutilated child corpses and people getting marched off to their executions, and American funding for this was loudly and proudly trumpeted by the administration. Given AIPAC, arms manufacturers and crazy Christians, I'm not sure that Biden or Harris had the political power to do anything else, but that just points to how corrupt our system is.
It's not like the US hasn't done terrible things abroad for pretty much its entire existence, but this is the first time in my life that atrocities have been both highly visible all day every day to the average person and loudly defended by the administration. That has an effect, because even people who don't really care that much and who aren't that engaged on foreign policy get a general vibe of "what is US foreign policy? giving our allies money to burn young men in their beds and not caring". That is not a strong GOTV strategy.
Again, I'm not saying this was the factor, because it obviously wasn't, but this political moment is one of disaffection, confusion, misery, etc, and the revealed US Palestine policy sure didn't help with that.
posted by Frowner at 7:15 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
the reality is that unless they truly go full fascist president for life which I don't think they have the support for this is the last Trump election ever.
Trump flat out said he was going to do this.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:16 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Trump flat out said he was going to do this.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:16 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
20 million Biden voters who stayed homeAgain, you can’t say anything about popular numbers yet, because there are like ten million ballots remaining to be counted on the west coast alone.
posted by mbrubeck at 7:16 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Anyone but a woman.
A rapist, a fraud, a criminal, an ignorant incurious narcissist, a Putin puppet, a serial business failure, a scab, a freeloader ....
Anyone but a woman.
posted by Dashy at 7:17 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]
A rapist, a fraud, a criminal, an ignorant incurious narcissist, a Putin puppet, a serial business failure, a scab, a freeloader ....
Anyone but a woman.
posted by Dashy at 7:17 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]
I could just as easily "civily" rewrite it as "first they came for the palestinians, but i didn't care because I thought it was about the economy". That comment is not "civil" and if you remove comments pointing out that it is pure unadulerated poison, you should remove that comment as well
posted by dis_integration at 7:17 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 7:17 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I'm not sure I want slogans that I can yell out of a truck window.
Me either. Not while there's money to be made by selling the same slogans on bumper stickers.
posted by flabdablet at 7:17 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Me either. Not while there's money to be made by selling the same slogans on bumper stickers.
posted by flabdablet at 7:17 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Can JD Vance run twice after he becomes the President? That is a scary fucking thought.
posted by Windopaene at 7:17 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 7:17 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Musk was not just theorizing but PROMISING on social media, BEFORE the election, that periods of hardship and economic strife and unrest among the masses over destruction of social programs and harsh actions to quell dissent would be necessary once Team Trump took over.
Unfortunately, we don't get a re-do of the election once leopards start eating new Trump voters' faces. But faces will be eaten, and anger will rise, and the Democratic response must respond to that anger in ways that they can comprehend.
posted by delfin at 7:18 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Unfortunately, we don't get a re-do of the election once leopards start eating new Trump voters' faces. But faces will be eaten, and anger will rise, and the Democratic response must respond to that anger in ways that they can comprehend.
posted by delfin at 7:18 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
I have nothing else to add to the discussion other than to say that I'm devastated by the results. But I'm glad you all are here because I need to believe that we still have sane people left in this country after seeing this red shift all over the map. Good luck to us all.
posted by extramundane at 7:19 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by extramundane at 7:19 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
> I get that you're angry your candidate was so terrible she lost to Trump. That's on her, not on me.
Listen it's completely insupportable to blame people who care about a fucking genocide for this defeat but also at the same time it's completely insupportable to call Harris a terrible candidate.
She was objectively not terrible. She was objectively the opposite of terrible. Her opponent is terrible, ran a terrible campaign, is a terrible human being, said terrible things, is terribly incompetent, etc. She is competent, ran a fantastic campaign, put forward good policies, said good things, worked hard, ran an excellent ground game, and did a great job. The fact that she lost doesn't magically make that untrue. To say that any candidate who loses is terrible is circular logic and a complete lie - in this case at least.
She lost for reasons completely different from "the candidate was terrible and this is on her". She was not terrible. The electorate is terrible. Please let's recognize that much.
> Anyone but a woman.
> A rapist, a fraud, a criminal, an ignorant incurious narcissist, a Putin puppet, a serial business failure, a scab, a freeloader ....
> Anyone but a woman.
Yep the math is very clear on that in this moment.
1. Obama won easily against two separate white guys.
2. Biden won less against Trump.
3. Both Clinton and Harris lost to this guy.
We can all add these days up to their obvious fucking conclusion. Thanks, America. Women know this was 10000% personal.
posted by MiraK at 7:20 AM on November 6 [75 favorites]
Listen it's completely insupportable to blame people who care about a fucking genocide for this defeat but also at the same time it's completely insupportable to call Harris a terrible candidate.
She was objectively not terrible. She was objectively the opposite of terrible. Her opponent is terrible, ran a terrible campaign, is a terrible human being, said terrible things, is terribly incompetent, etc. She is competent, ran a fantastic campaign, put forward good policies, said good things, worked hard, ran an excellent ground game, and did a great job. The fact that she lost doesn't magically make that untrue. To say that any candidate who loses is terrible is circular logic and a complete lie - in this case at least.
She lost for reasons completely different from "the candidate was terrible and this is on her". She was not terrible. The electorate is terrible. Please let's recognize that much.
> Anyone but a woman.
> A rapist, a fraud, a criminal, an ignorant incurious narcissist, a Putin puppet, a serial business failure, a scab, a freeloader ....
> Anyone but a woman.
Yep the math is very clear on that in this moment.
1. Obama won easily against two separate white guys.
2. Biden won less against Trump.
3. Both Clinton and Harris lost to this guy.
We can all add these days up to their obvious fucking conclusion. Thanks, America. Women know this was 10000% personal.
posted by MiraK at 7:20 AM on November 6 [75 favorites]
And also a reminder: in two years there will be midterms. We should all be doing what we can to ensure a deep blue wave to occur.
We don't have...I don't know, we don't have enough anti-wealth sentiment for that story to really land.
I dunno - Bernie didn't do as well as he did in the 2020 primary for no reason. I'd say we do have a strong sentiment towards fairness in the US. This can of course be manipulated by the right (i.e. it's not fair that immigrants get [x resource]). But Bernie did tap into a message that won over a diverse plurality of people under 40 - that the system isn't fair - that while everyone should be able to be successful if they work hard, we have a system where if you're born poor, you work hard and stay poor, while if you're born rich, you can be lazy and remain rich. Someone a bit younger, who doesn't call themselves a socialist, could win on a version of that message. It doesn't have to be anti-wealth so much as anti-unfairness.
posted by coffeecat at 7:20 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
We don't have...I don't know, we don't have enough anti-wealth sentiment for that story to really land.
I dunno - Bernie didn't do as well as he did in the 2020 primary for no reason. I'd say we do have a strong sentiment towards fairness in the US. This can of course be manipulated by the right (i.e. it's not fair that immigrants get [x resource]). But Bernie did tap into a message that won over a diverse plurality of people under 40 - that the system isn't fair - that while everyone should be able to be successful if they work hard, we have a system where if you're born poor, you work hard and stay poor, while if you're born rich, you can be lazy and remain rich. Someone a bit younger, who doesn't call themselves a socialist, could win on a version of that message. It doesn't have to be anti-wealth so much as anti-unfairness.
posted by coffeecat at 7:20 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
I mean, specifically a woman that the party picked as VP because she performed terribly in the 2020 primary and posed no threat to the Oldest Man In The World. I don't like Warren but even she wouldn't have botched this one so bad.
posted by jy4m at 7:20 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 7:20 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
This is going to completely remake our political order.
They did not expect to win in 2016. They weren't ready. They're ready this time.
Mass deportations.
National abortion ban.
Ukraine is toast.
Gaza isn't toast, it's burnt.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
Massive tax increases on working people.
A complete hollowing out of the regulatory state.
All of this will take a generation to undo. I believe the average age around here is 40s-50s? You will die living under this new political order.
I am pretty sanguine about it, though. We live(d) in a democracy. This is what a majority of people voted for. Well, they're gonna get it.
posted by rhymedirective at 7:21 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
They did not expect to win in 2016. They weren't ready. They're ready this time.
Mass deportations.
National abortion ban.
Ukraine is toast.
Gaza isn't toast, it's burnt.
Repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
Massive tax increases on working people.
A complete hollowing out of the regulatory state.
All of this will take a generation to undo. I believe the average age around here is 40s-50s? You will die living under this new political order.
I am pretty sanguine about it, though. We live(d) in a democracy. This is what a majority of people voted for. Well, they're gonna get it.
posted by rhymedirective at 7:21 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
There's probably no greater example of political ignorance than to think that student loan forgiveness is a winning issue. It is enraging to most people who paid off their student loans, worked their way through college, paid for their kids' college out of pocket, got their tuition paid for past (GI Bill) or future (ROTC, service academy) military service, and/or fought their way to a decent living without going to college.
No, it isn't. I think you are giving the vast run of people far too little credit by imagining them to be so selfish and emotionally immature. I know people in all those categories, and the only ones I have seen be enraged about it are right wing creeps who hate college students and poor people and hate seeing them helped. The rest of us are normal. about this and want to see others get the help they need.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:22 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
No, it isn't. I think you are giving the vast run of people far too little credit by imagining them to be so selfish and emotionally immature. I know people in all those categories, and the only ones I have seen be enraged about it are right wing creeps who hate college students and poor people and hate seeing them helped. The rest of us are normal. about this and want to see others get the help they need.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:22 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
the Democratic response must respond to that anger in ways that they can comprehend
Difficulty there is the widespread desire not to want to comprehend anything.
Why bother readin' when you can just flip on the toob?
posted by flabdablet at 7:22 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Difficulty there is the widespread desire not to want to comprehend anything.
Why bother readin' when you can just flip on the toob?
posted by flabdablet at 7:22 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Eight years ago today I woke up and made the start screen on my Android phone say "don't mourn, organize!" and that setting has somehow survived a few subsequent phones. It takes on fresh meaning today.
posted by St. Oops at 7:23 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
posted by St. Oops at 7:23 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
California count takes days if not more than a week. The NPV will be close but the reality is that where the differentials are now is in states like Texas and Florida where he was already going to win and he won bigger and in states like NY where he was never going to win but Harris didn't really run up the score.
Dropping margins from 20+ % to 10+ % is still a win but speaks to discontent with the status quo and an openness to alternatives no matter how abhorrent that alterative appears to highly educated liberals.
Protest votes for 3rd party looked to be small in every state because let's be honest the Greens and Libertarians are jokes and widely percieved to be jokes. So your only real choice is either don't vote or vote for the other side and hope things will get better.
Yes there are probably some accelarationalists out there that saw the way to a bright shining future as happening through short term pain but that mindset seems to be rare outside of the most techno-utopian of techbros. There has been some focus on how Trump is seen as a moonshot for the techbros not because they want to see Project 2025 nonsense enacted but they see short term pain as being worth it for long term gain. The fact that they have the wealth to insulate themselves from the short term pain being a major selling point.
I know Gaza was/is very important to a subset of Americans particularly Americans that are very engaged with social media, very socially conscious and very outspoken but anyone who thought abstaining or even worse voting for Trump would somehow punish Democrats for supporting Netanyahu's military actions in Gaza and be a lesson Democrats would somehow take to heart is probably being wildly optimistic. The reality is that as much has Netanyahu has a green light now under Biden it will be even less constraints on him in the future under Trump. If Gaza was your disqualifying issue I will question your judgement but your vote is your vote but nothing seems to suggest that there was a massive protest vote happening based upon Biden's Gaza policy. Definitely that would explain some of these demographic shifts in broad parts of the US.
posted by vuron at 7:23 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Dropping margins from 20+ % to 10+ % is still a win but speaks to discontent with the status quo and an openness to alternatives no matter how abhorrent that alterative appears to highly educated liberals.
Protest votes for 3rd party looked to be small in every state because let's be honest the Greens and Libertarians are jokes and widely percieved to be jokes. So your only real choice is either don't vote or vote for the other side and hope things will get better.
Yes there are probably some accelarationalists out there that saw the way to a bright shining future as happening through short term pain but that mindset seems to be rare outside of the most techno-utopian of techbros. There has been some focus on how Trump is seen as a moonshot for the techbros not because they want to see Project 2025 nonsense enacted but they see short term pain as being worth it for long term gain. The fact that they have the wealth to insulate themselves from the short term pain being a major selling point.
I know Gaza was/is very important to a subset of Americans particularly Americans that are very engaged with social media, very socially conscious and very outspoken but anyone who thought abstaining or even worse voting for Trump would somehow punish Democrats for supporting Netanyahu's military actions in Gaza and be a lesson Democrats would somehow take to heart is probably being wildly optimistic. The reality is that as much has Netanyahu has a green light now under Biden it will be even less constraints on him in the future under Trump. If Gaza was your disqualifying issue I will question your judgement but your vote is your vote but nothing seems to suggest that there was a massive protest vote happening based upon Biden's Gaza policy. Definitely that would explain some of these demographic shifts in broad parts of the US.
posted by vuron at 7:23 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
This failure by the Democrats to win the easiest fucking election ever
It was not the easiest election ever---that was 2016. The economy sucks for a lot of people, and that made it hard for the incumbent*.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:24 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
It was not the easiest election ever---that was 2016. The economy sucks for a lot of people, and that made it hard for the incumbent*.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:24 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I saw this right from the start. Harris was far too nice,
THE WOMAN WAS TOO MEAN
THE WOMAN WAS TOO NICE
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:24 AM on November 6 [64 favorites]
THE WOMAN WAS TOO MEAN
THE WOMAN WAS TOO NICE
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:24 AM on November 6 [64 favorites]
I'm disappointed too. And my sympathies and best wishes to those who feel threatened by this outcome. Election rhetoric often dissipates when the reality of governing later sinks in. I also believe that good people will push back against the worst threatened outcomes.
half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it..
But this sort of thinking is a symptom of the larger problem with the US bipolar political system: it bakes in partisanship. If most people don't or won't understand the issues and grievances of people who disagree with them, and genuinely think that half of their country's citizens are evil... then you won't have a functional country. The US two party system makes bipartisanship, compromise, middle ground a barren scorched wasteland.
if this is the choice half of the country wants to make and the other half couldn't show up to stop that, well, don't know what to tell you. I'd have elected a rotten egg if that's what was running against trump.
The GOP's rotten egg had a strong base and was mathematically electable, so the party establishment got behind him, and here we are. Most GOP voters chose their rotten egg over electing a Democrat.
Anyway, best wishes to us all. Lots to do on the ground to help the most vulnerable and to push back in small and large ways. If the economics don't improve, the leaders of the Face Eating Leopard Party will find themselves on the menu by the midterms.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:25 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it..
But this sort of thinking is a symptom of the larger problem with the US bipolar political system: it bakes in partisanship. If most people don't or won't understand the issues and grievances of people who disagree with them, and genuinely think that half of their country's citizens are evil... then you won't have a functional country. The US two party system makes bipartisanship, compromise, middle ground a barren scorched wasteland.
if this is the choice half of the country wants to make and the other half couldn't show up to stop that, well, don't know what to tell you. I'd have elected a rotten egg if that's what was running against trump.
The GOP's rotten egg had a strong base and was mathematically electable, so the party establishment got behind him, and here we are. Most GOP voters chose their rotten egg over electing a Democrat.
Anyway, best wishes to us all. Lots to do on the ground to help the most vulnerable and to push back in small and large ways. If the economics don't improve, the leaders of the Face Eating Leopard Party will find themselves on the menu by the midterms.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:25 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
This failure by the Democrats to win the easiest fucking election ever
This is not just wrong because of the prevailing conditions that made this a terrible period for incumbents in all nations post-COVID-inflation. This is wrong because, as much as we dislike Trump, a huge number of people are warming to him. We think the electorate was craving any alternative to Trump — but they weren't, at least not to a degree that made him easy to beat.
posted by argybarg at 7:26 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This is not just wrong because of the prevailing conditions that made this a terrible period for incumbents in all nations post-COVID-inflation. This is wrong because, as much as we dislike Trump, a huge number of people are warming to him. We think the electorate was craving any alternative to Trump — but they weren't, at least not to a degree that made him easy to beat.
posted by argybarg at 7:26 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
If the economics don't improve, the leaders of the Face Eating Leopard Party will find themselves on the menu by the midterms.
Assuming there are midterms.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:26 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Assuming there are midterms.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:26 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
If you don't want a woman to be evaluated or criticized, then you don't want a woman in the White House.
posted by jy4m at 7:27 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 7:27 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I dunno - Bernie didn't do as well as he did in the 2020 primary for no reason. I'd say we do have a strong sentiment towards fairness in the US.
I agree, but the democrats have a lot invested in this not being the solution. I would go so far as to say they have EVERYTHING invested in the politics of Bernie Sanders not being the solution. They only want an amount of fairness that doesn't freak out the donors. That is significantly less fairness than socialists want. I don't think these goals are incompatible, but I do think the democrats are extremely attached to getting paid a shitload of money by their sponsors. No solution to the electability dilemma that fucks up the money will ever be THE solution, not for the democratic party.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:27 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I agree, but the democrats have a lot invested in this not being the solution. I would go so far as to say they have EVERYTHING invested in the politics of Bernie Sanders not being the solution. They only want an amount of fairness that doesn't freak out the donors. That is significantly less fairness than socialists want. I don't think these goals are incompatible, but I do think the democrats are extremely attached to getting paid a shitload of money by their sponsors. No solution to the electability dilemma that fucks up the money will ever be THE solution, not for the democratic party.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:27 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I went out to water my plants this morning and I heard a woman across the street mumbling "take THAT sign down, take THAT sign down, trump trump trump" and, well, that has absolutely never happened on my ocean blue block before. Thankfully my neighbor quickly came over with her delightful little doggo who was more than willing to accept therapeutic pets and belly rubs. I am going to need to see all of my dog friends today.
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:28 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by grumpybear69 at 7:28 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Trump 2.0 is going to be disastrous in every imaginable way for everyone in the world (except billionaires) regardless of how anyone voted or where you live. What we have learned is, it's VERY difficult to fight a well funded disinformation machine in a world where people use Facebook, TikToc and Instragram to educate themselves. If nobody can agree on a source for objective news, if we can't agree on facts, or any basic truth, it's impossible to have meaningful conversations.
What concerns me most of all is how Trump's presidency is going to accelerate climate catastrophes. We have no time to spare. We needed to stop burning fossil fuels yesterday, and Trump has promised to Drill Baby Drill. Get ready for nonstop hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, drought, extreme temperatures, and more and more climate refugees. Asheville has proven no place is safe. Expect it. There's a climate catastrophe coming to a town near you.
posted by pjsky at 7:28 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
What concerns me most of all is how Trump's presidency is going to accelerate climate catastrophes. We have no time to spare. We needed to stop burning fossil fuels yesterday, and Trump has promised to Drill Baby Drill. Get ready for nonstop hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, drought, extreme temperatures, and more and more climate refugees. Asheville has proven no place is safe. Expect it. There's a climate catastrophe coming to a town near you.
posted by pjsky at 7:28 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
I am sorry if my optimism in thread yesterday led to anyone else increasing their optimism and in turn their pain of disappointment.
(I am sure this apology is unnecessary but as I work through my own grief this morning it helps me a little to deal with the guilt I feel that I may have caused others pain. Thank you for indulging me)
posted by jermsplan at 7:29 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
(I am sure this apology is unnecessary but as I work through my own grief this morning it helps me a little to deal with the guilt I feel that I may have caused others pain. Thank you for indulging me)
posted by jermsplan at 7:29 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
With Theil and Musk given free reign, we can expect a social credit system to emerge, scraped from social media. Your place on the list will be determined by your past comments. It would be very wise to lock that shit down ASAP if you can.
I'm currently downloading all my kid pictures off of Facebook and will be putting up a post asking for all 900 people's emails, then deleting the account next week. The Gestapo will be here a lot sooner than you think. We live in Putin's world, now, and nobody's coming to save us. Reddit's next, I never had Twitter or Instagram, and even though I don't often agree with a lot of you here, this place is always good for interesting conversations, but it's gonna have to go, too.
The Democrats, since I have you on the line, could easily become the dominant party by making a few structural changes. Become a party of working people: go all in on workers' rights like knowing your schedule two weeks in advance, unionization, higher minimum wages, higher wages in general. Be right up front about how the billionaires manipulate them: do a constant master class in media literacy. Talk about "fair shares" a lot. Shut the fuck UP about college loan forgiveness. Have a Put American Workers First whole suite of rhetoric and policies. Have a firm "the border is closed" policy simultaneously combined with "the undocumented workers who are here are hard workers just like you". Tell the donor class to get with the program or fuck off: abandon expensive media buys entirely and rely on people motivated for the cause. Have a focus group of construction and retail workers whose demographics reflect the working class, and run every goddamn thing you want to do or say by them and do nothing that doesn't attract a supermajority of them. Stop being bland. Stop letting smarty-pants people like me craft the messages, or at least give that focus group plenary authority to edit them. Tone the social issues way down, NOT by adopting conservative positions, but by responding to any critiques with "Let's just support the pursuit of happiness", and NOT get into the weeds: any time some jackass brings up transgender bathrooms, get right back in their grill and be like "point to where on the doll this is actually hurting you, and by the way here's our oft-repeated message about how since like 1650 the oligarchy has been manipulating you to do their bidding by presenting you some powerless group of people as a threat."
They're not going to do this, not because they're "centrists" or whatever, but because their leadership is basically the same sort of people the Republicans appeal to, only with like a BLM sticker, and because if they didn't have the donor class, they'd have to work for a living.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:29 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
I'm currently downloading all my kid pictures off of Facebook and will be putting up a post asking for all 900 people's emails, then deleting the account next week. The Gestapo will be here a lot sooner than you think. We live in Putin's world, now, and nobody's coming to save us. Reddit's next, I never had Twitter or Instagram, and even though I don't often agree with a lot of you here, this place is always good for interesting conversations, but it's gonna have to go, too.
The Democrats, since I have you on the line, could easily become the dominant party by making a few structural changes. Become a party of working people: go all in on workers' rights like knowing your schedule two weeks in advance, unionization, higher minimum wages, higher wages in general. Be right up front about how the billionaires manipulate them: do a constant master class in media literacy. Talk about "fair shares" a lot. Shut the fuck UP about college loan forgiveness. Have a Put American Workers First whole suite of rhetoric and policies. Have a firm "the border is closed" policy simultaneously combined with "the undocumented workers who are here are hard workers just like you". Tell the donor class to get with the program or fuck off: abandon expensive media buys entirely and rely on people motivated for the cause. Have a focus group of construction and retail workers whose demographics reflect the working class, and run every goddamn thing you want to do or say by them and do nothing that doesn't attract a supermajority of them. Stop being bland. Stop letting smarty-pants people like me craft the messages, or at least give that focus group plenary authority to edit them. Tone the social issues way down, NOT by adopting conservative positions, but by responding to any critiques with "Let's just support the pursuit of happiness", and NOT get into the weeds: any time some jackass brings up transgender bathrooms, get right back in their grill and be like "point to where on the doll this is actually hurting you, and by the way here's our oft-repeated message about how since like 1650 the oligarchy has been manipulating you to do their bidding by presenting you some powerless group of people as a threat."
They're not going to do this, not because they're "centrists" or whatever, but because their leadership is basically the same sort of people the Republicans appeal to, only with like a BLM sticker, and because if they didn't have the donor class, they'd have to work for a living.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:29 AM on November 6 [23 favorites]
If you want to win an election in America, your best bet will always be to play to the "fuck you, I got mine" crowd, which is probably the majority of Americans.
* Foreign policy = America first. Don't send my money to other countries. Don't let anybody in unless they have money; if you're a poor foreigner, it sure sucks to be you.
* Domestic policy = Me first. The right tax rate is zero. If you take my money, you better do something directly for me with it. Don't build shit for other people. Don't give other people stuff you aren't going to give me. Don't fuck with my car, my house, or my neighborhood. Don't try to make me like other people, because I don't and I won't. And make prices go down.
Trump is a vile sack of McNuggets in clown makeup, but he's a successful con man who knows how to talk to people like that. They believe his empty superlatives.
posted by pracowity at 7:29 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
* Foreign policy = America first. Don't send my money to other countries. Don't let anybody in unless they have money; if you're a poor foreigner, it sure sucks to be you.
* Domestic policy = Me first. The right tax rate is zero. If you take my money, you better do something directly for me with it. Don't build shit for other people. Don't give other people stuff you aren't going to give me. Don't fuck with my car, my house, or my neighborhood. Don't try to make me like other people, because I don't and I won't. And make prices go down.
Trump is a vile sack of McNuggets in clown makeup, but he's a successful con man who knows how to talk to people like that. They believe his empty superlatives.
posted by pracowity at 7:29 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
20 million Biden voters who stayed home
biden got 81 million - with 76% of the vote counted harris had something like 66
people need to stop saying this and they need to stop looking for scapegoats
posted by pyramid termite at 7:30 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
biden got 81 million - with 76% of the vote counted harris had something like 66
people need to stop saying this and they need to stop looking for scapegoats
posted by pyramid termite at 7:30 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I've got one small bit of good news: here in upstate NY we elected Josh Riley to US Congress. He unseated a rabid trumpsucker. I went to bed early last night and got up way too early.
When I looked at Facebook after checking the news the first comment I saw was from a former coworker and longtime friend, a young Black woman in the south. Her take was that Kamala lost because she's a Black woman.
And here I was planning to take my granddaughters to Seneca Falls on Inauguration Day. If you haven't been there is a small National Park on the site of the first women's rights convention that was held in 1848. Shame it's taking way too long.
I wanna see the women of America go all Lysistrata on male repugnicans who voted for those slimy bastards.
posted by mareli at 7:31 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
When I looked at Facebook after checking the news the first comment I saw was from a former coworker and longtime friend, a young Black woman in the south. Her take was that Kamala lost because she's a Black woman.
And here I was planning to take my granddaughters to Seneca Falls on Inauguration Day. If you haven't been there is a small National Park on the site of the first women's rights convention that was held in 1848. Shame it's taking way too long.
I wanna see the women of America go all Lysistrata on male repugnicans who voted for those slimy bastards.
posted by mareli at 7:31 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Well this is a punch in the gut.
posted by Reverend John at 7:31 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 7:31 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
It is time now, if you have not done so yet, to read up on what Orbán has done in Hungary. In all likelihood, that's close to what we're going to be getting. We can expect this, because the GOP and the Project 2025 folks have been open about using that as their model.
The good news is: this would not be a situation where we'd be Nazi Germany 2.0 by February or anything. The bad news is: institutions are going to be steadily rebuilt to consolidate power for the GOP in a way that will be somewhere between difficult and impossible to undo. They are going to "one more thing" your vulnerable friends over and over, steadily diminishing their quality of life their sense of safety.
Historically non-partisan bureaucratic jobs will be converted into government-sponsored cogs of the GOP apparatus. Institutions that perform work or release information that is antithetical to their movement will be chopped down, minimized, eliminated, or taken over and made compliant.
While we have the advantage of a media ecosystem that is hopefully too unwieldy and international for them to take it over completely, the government is likely to start finding endless reasons to censure/corrupt/co-opt media messaging. Reporters will need to learn to be careful.
I have no idea idea what the US version of a nation like this will do as far as migrants goes as the scale of our country is entirely different.
But your LGBT friends are probably not gonna end up in camps any time soon. Instead, there will be relentless, insidious chipping away at their rights, and the rights of other targeted groups. You're going to hear a lot about "traditional family values" being emphasized and re-established and when it doesn't mean bad news for your LGBT friends, it's going to mean bad news for women.
The wall between church and state is going to start losing bricks on a steady basis.
And whenever possible, there will "special circumstances" that they say require the president to have expanded powers. These circumstances will, unsurprisingly, occur much of the time.
I know more about this than I would like, but far less than would make me any kind of authority. I would encourage you to read as much as you can, though.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:32 AM on November 6 [77 favorites]
The good news is: this would not be a situation where we'd be Nazi Germany 2.0 by February or anything. The bad news is: institutions are going to be steadily rebuilt to consolidate power for the GOP in a way that will be somewhere between difficult and impossible to undo. They are going to "one more thing" your vulnerable friends over and over, steadily diminishing their quality of life their sense of safety.
Historically non-partisan bureaucratic jobs will be converted into government-sponsored cogs of the GOP apparatus. Institutions that perform work or release information that is antithetical to their movement will be chopped down, minimized, eliminated, or taken over and made compliant.
While we have the advantage of a media ecosystem that is hopefully too unwieldy and international for them to take it over completely, the government is likely to start finding endless reasons to censure/corrupt/co-opt media messaging. Reporters will need to learn to be careful.
I have no idea idea what the US version of a nation like this will do as far as migrants goes as the scale of our country is entirely different.
But your LGBT friends are probably not gonna end up in camps any time soon. Instead, there will be relentless, insidious chipping away at their rights, and the rights of other targeted groups. You're going to hear a lot about "traditional family values" being emphasized and re-established and when it doesn't mean bad news for your LGBT friends, it's going to mean bad news for women.
The wall between church and state is going to start losing bricks on a steady basis.
And whenever possible, there will "special circumstances" that they say require the president to have expanded powers. These circumstances will, unsurprisingly, occur much of the time.
I know more about this than I would like, but far less than would make me any kind of authority. I would encourage you to read as much as you can, though.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:32 AM on November 6 [77 favorites]
>The economy sucks for a lot of people
So let's give more power to the people making it suck.
Here's that graph I couldn't be arsed to make (blue is notionally 'full employment', 74% of age 15-64, red is # jobs)
The country is was still going pretty well in 2000 but the wheels were coming off a bit and Wall Street gains weren't trickling down (and NASDAQ was crashing in 2000).
The US entered 2008 7M jobs short and as the GFC accelerated that hit 20M by election day.
We were still 15M short for the 2012 election but somehow Obama pulled that off. Electorate didnt' give him any help removing the (D) majority in 2010 but I guess Romney was no Trumpo.
Trumpo was cruising to reelection entering 2020, then teh covid hit.
Now we're +4M above previous 'full employment' levels, but here we are!
posted by torokunai at 7:32 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
So let's give more power to the people making it suck.
Here's that graph I couldn't be arsed to make (blue is notionally 'full employment', 74% of age 15-64, red is # jobs)
The country is was still going pretty well in 2000 but the wheels were coming off a bit and Wall Street gains weren't trickling down (and NASDAQ was crashing in 2000).
The US entered 2008 7M jobs short and as the GFC accelerated that hit 20M by election day.
We were still 15M short for the 2012 election but somehow Obama pulled that off. Electorate didnt' give him any help removing the (D) majority in 2010 but I guess Romney was no Trumpo.
Trumpo was cruising to reelection entering 2020, then teh covid hit.
Now we're +4M above previous 'full employment' levels, but here we are!
posted by torokunai at 7:32 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
> half of your neighbours are shitty, shitty people, that's the big and small of it..
But this sort of thinking is a symptom of the larger problem with the US bipolar political system: it bakes in partisanship. If most people don't or won't understand the issues and grievances of people who disagree with them, and genuinely think that half of their country's citizens are evil... then you won't have a functional country.
Trump's supporters just proved they don't care. We are at this point.
And it's not about party. It's about sheer human-nature "fuck you, got mine" cussedness.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:33 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
But this sort of thinking is a symptom of the larger problem with the US bipolar political system: it bakes in partisanship. If most people don't or won't understand the issues and grievances of people who disagree with them, and genuinely think that half of their country's citizens are evil... then you won't have a functional country.
Trump's supporters just proved they don't care. We are at this point.
And it's not about party. It's about sheer human-nature "fuck you, got mine" cussedness.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:33 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
but anyone who thought abstaining or even worse voting for Trump would somehow punish Democrats for supporting Netanyahu's military actions in Gaza and be a lesson Democrats would somehow take to heart is probably being wildly optimistic.
I am wrong about so many things I am probably wrong about this
but reminders that people who withheld their vote due to genocide are misguided or wrong, or somehow delusional about Trump, I just think this misses the mark entirely. if millions of people are willing to vote for what Trump represents because of fear and/or their perception of the economy, then people who have lost and are losing families in Gaza and Lebanon are allowed to vote or not vote with the pure rage of a situation that defies any rationalization. This is not a calculus, this is "Nothing matters anymore"
this is: so this is the sacrifice you all are willing to make? so be it.
this is not about what happens tomorrow, not about a future. please realize that there are people who don't see a future, they see a complete lack of response to something we all used to say "No more, never again" but this is just a slogan right? we will see it again and again, so let's just be real about what that means moving forward. there is no community, and the lesser of two evils did not win an election. good morning.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:34 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
I am wrong about so many things I am probably wrong about this
but reminders that people who withheld their vote due to genocide are misguided or wrong, or somehow delusional about Trump, I just think this misses the mark entirely. if millions of people are willing to vote for what Trump represents because of fear and/or their perception of the economy, then people who have lost and are losing families in Gaza and Lebanon are allowed to vote or not vote with the pure rage of a situation that defies any rationalization. This is not a calculus, this is "Nothing matters anymore"
this is: so this is the sacrifice you all are willing to make? so be it.
this is not about what happens tomorrow, not about a future. please realize that there are people who don't see a future, they see a complete lack of response to something we all used to say "No more, never again" but this is just a slogan right? we will see it again and again, so let's just be real about what that means moving forward. there is no community, and the lesser of two evils did not win an election. good morning.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:34 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
So what you're saying, Pracowity, is that once again, we gotta get more racist?
posted by jy4m at 7:35 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 7:35 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I keep trying to be charitable… the economic issues, low information, etc.. but I keep getting stopped at this:
He bragged about molesting women. Nobody missed that. There are so many horrible things that you could be excused for having missed if you weren’t paying much attention to the news, but that is one everybody knew about.
That should be an automatic disqualification from leading _anything_. There is no amount of understanding I can have for people who vote for a person that they _know_ thinks it’s hilarious that he gets to assault women.
posted by antinomia at 7:35 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
He bragged about molesting women. Nobody missed that. There are so many horrible things that you could be excused for having missed if you weren’t paying much attention to the news, but that is one everybody knew about.
That should be an automatic disqualification from leading _anything_. There is no amount of understanding I can have for people who vote for a person that they _know_ thinks it’s hilarious that he gets to assault women.
posted by antinomia at 7:35 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
I had a bad feeling when all the celebrity endorsements started rolling in, when pop stars showed up at Kamala's rallies, when Oprah came on the stage to grant her blessing. It seemed tone deaf and somehow like a bad omen. I'm still shocked at the outcome, but sadly not surprised.
posted by swift at 7:36 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by swift at 7:36 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
But this sort of thinking is a symptom of the larger problem with the US bipolar political system: it bakes in partisanship.
I've been listening to some right-wing podcasts lately as part of a personal project.
The message on some of them was, almost word-for-word, "sometimes you have to hold your nose and vote for the guy with the best policies even if you think he's terrible." It was sold in that American Lone Cowboy type style - man up, and vote for the shithead that will save the economy, because a man provides for his family. I couldn't listen to the Dave Ramsay interview with Trump but that's the type of stuff I was listening to.
I don't know what you say to that as the message on the left is often just about the same.
I'm in no way supporting Trump. I'm just saying that there was definitely a subset of right-wing media that was selling the Republicans in that way. I fear for the consequences, but it may be that there were actually enough people that could be swayed in a different direction next time. (And yes, I know there's a possibility next time the deck will be more stacked.)
(I also checked in on more overtly evangelical podcasts and there the sell was "Harris is allied with Satan," so no winning there I don't think.)
posted by warriorqueen at 7:37 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I've been listening to some right-wing podcasts lately as part of a personal project.
The message on some of them was, almost word-for-word, "sometimes you have to hold your nose and vote for the guy with the best policies even if you think he's terrible." It was sold in that American Lone Cowboy type style - man up, and vote for the shithead that will save the economy, because a man provides for his family. I couldn't listen to the Dave Ramsay interview with Trump but that's the type of stuff I was listening to.
I don't know what you say to that as the message on the left is often just about the same.
I'm in no way supporting Trump. I'm just saying that there was definitely a subset of right-wing media that was selling the Republicans in that way. I fear for the consequences, but it may be that there were actually enough people that could be swayed in a different direction next time. (And yes, I know there's a possibility next time the deck will be more stacked.)
(I also checked in on more overtly evangelical podcasts and there the sell was "Harris is allied with Satan," so no winning there I don't think.)
posted by warriorqueen at 7:37 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
The cruelty remains the point.
posted by edithkeeler at 7:40 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by edithkeeler at 7:40 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
outgrown_hobnail
As an IT worker, I have to say don't bother. Nothing you "delete" on Facebook is actually deleted.
If Musk/Thiel/Zuck decide to go along with a social credit score based on social media it's going to include anything you thought you deleted and probably most things you thought you posted under a burner account or alt account.
You were marked as a troublemaker 10 years ago, hurriedly deleting things to try to cover your tracks now won't do any good.
By all means keep your photos in multiple places and don't rely on Facebook for photo storage. But don't imagine you'll be spared for deleting your anti-Trump posts now. Those are burned into your online presence forever and there's nothing you can do about it.
posted by sotonohito at 7:42 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]
As an IT worker, I have to say don't bother. Nothing you "delete" on Facebook is actually deleted.
If Musk/Thiel/Zuck decide to go along with a social credit score based on social media it's going to include anything you thought you deleted and probably most things you thought you posted under a burner account or alt account.
You were marked as a troublemaker 10 years ago, hurriedly deleting things to try to cover your tracks now won't do any good.
By all means keep your photos in multiple places and don't rely on Facebook for photo storage. But don't imagine you'll be spared for deleting your anti-Trump posts now. Those are burned into your online presence forever and there's nothing you can do about it.
posted by sotonohito at 7:42 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]
^^ You're undoubtedly right, but it's helping me cope.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:42 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:42 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I don’t believe in gods. And I truly believe it was misogyny, white supremacy, and hatred of immigrants, POCs and LGBTQ + people that brought this about. With Huge assists from the oligarchic media, the billionaires, and Merrick spineless chickenshit Garland.
But JFC how can this POS have all the luck in the world!!! The fucking Epstein tapes came out a week ago and NOTHING!
The list of well everything vile he’s ever done is endless and NOTHING sticks to him. NOTHING. The gods favor Trump above all others.
We should’ve just given him his 2020 ‘win’ so he could grift his way to $10B and send him off the his golf courses.
posted by WatTylerJr at 7:43 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
But JFC how can this POS have all the luck in the world!!! The fucking Epstein tapes came out a week ago and NOTHING!
The list of well everything vile he’s ever done is endless and NOTHING sticks to him. NOTHING. The gods favor Trump above all others.
We should’ve just given him his 2020 ‘win’ so he could grift his way to $10B and send him off the his golf courses.
posted by WatTylerJr at 7:43 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
people who abstained out of conscience (not apathy or laziness) or voted third party probably constitute too small a group to have made any real difference.
Well (as of now, 97-99% of votes counted) Wisconsin and Michigan could have turned if third party vote broke otherwise. Would have had to overwhelmingly though so probably not the full story. Hard to tell how abstentions factored in (for either party).
posted by mazola at 7:44 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Well (as of now, 97-99% of votes counted) Wisconsin and Michigan could have turned if third party vote broke otherwise. Would have had to overwhelmingly though so probably not the full story. Hard to tell how abstentions factored in (for either party).
posted by mazola at 7:44 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I wouldn't presume that an online jihad against Trump detractors would pursued with anything like competence. I don't know if anyone has noticed, but these people are assclowns. I can easily see an online jihad! But in all likelihood the people singled out for it have a fifty-fifty shot of actually being Trump detractors.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:45 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:45 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
sotonohito
So you're basically saying that Trump is Roko's Basilisk for our times? Yikes.
posted by aeshnid at 7:46 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
So you're basically saying that Trump is Roko's Basilisk for our times? Yikes.
posted by aeshnid at 7:46 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Are any of y'all thinking of moving to blue states and creating a parallel universe where we just collectively say to Trump & Co, fuck you, we ain't doing it? I'd be down for that.
posted by pjsky at 7:46 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 7:46 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
You know something - remember when WaPo cancelled endorsing a candidate because Jeff Bezos told them to, and everyone cancelled their WaPo subscriptions?
....did anyone consider cancelling their Amazon Prime subscriptions to get at the REAL source of that problem?
I'm seriously considering it now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:47 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
....did anyone consider cancelling their Amazon Prime subscriptions to get at the REAL source of that problem?
I'm seriously considering it now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:47 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
If you don't want a woman to be evaluated or criticized, then you don't want a woman in the White House.
posted by jy4m at
I want her to not be criticized by her relative "niceness" or "meanness" and that's fucking normal for people who don't hate on women but I get it, I guess as a woman I must not really want what I say I want or don't want
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:49 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
posted by jy4m at
I want her to not be criticized by her relative "niceness" or "meanness" and that's fucking normal for people who don't hate on women but I get it, I guess as a woman I must not really want what I say I want or don't want
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:49 AM on November 6 [29 favorites]
I guess TFG earned those votes.
* brain explodes *
posted by mazola at 7:50 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
* brain explodes *
posted by mazola at 7:50 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Metafilter folks, I’m so grateful to you for being here and connecting in this crazy time. You’ve helped me through some dark political moments these past years, and no doubt you’ll be doing it again, whatever is to come. Love and gratitude and hope to us all.
posted by marlys at 7:52 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
posted by marlys at 7:52 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
At a human level I am deeply bothered by the fact that nobody in the Trump Team has called out his obvious mental decline. I don't know if they're keeping that in the back pocket for 25th reasons OR hoping he strokes out or wtf.
Or they just assume he can be managed the way they claimed Biden was.
posted by Pryde at 7:53 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Or they just assume he can be managed the way they claimed Biden was.
posted by Pryde at 7:53 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Trump is their vessel. The more addled the better
posted by dis_integration at 7:54 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 7:54 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
The parallel information ecosystem that a huge number of Americans willingly watch or gets feed to them indirectly because it's on in every dentist and doctor's office in the US and you are subjected to a work by our asshole boss that you can't argue with because he signs your checks really helps minimize the abhorence Trump evokes. This parallel ecosystem explains every stupid thing his says as "he didn't mean that", "you are taking that out of context", "there is a witchhunt by the MSM", etc makes it very easy for Republicans to overlook all of the disgust with Trump as a person so many of us feel.
I think if Harris had more time she probably could've really hammered the "Trump is too old, too week, too senile" card to better effect but perhaps because Biden is still in the picture they couldn't flip the script to frame Trump as being a weak, old, senile man yelling get off my lawn in enough time but I think waiting until after debate 1 when Biden looked Old and Trump looked "strong" really put her campaign behind the eight ball. Also it's hard to run a campaign based upon reminding people of how shit it was under Trump 4 years ago when it seems pretty shit to people today. Incumbents always pay the price when people are economically uncertain.
Stocks will definitely do well but unless people see real wage growth under Trump that at least matches Cost of Living increases the same people that are complaining about inflation now will be complaining about it 4 years from now because we all know that consumer prices aren't magically going to fall with a new president. Hell there isn't even the semblance of reducing consumer prices being talked about on the right. The tariff idea would actually do the opposite as would any sort of national regressive sales tax or VAT.
posted by vuron at 7:55 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I think if Harris had more time she probably could've really hammered the "Trump is too old, too week, too senile" card to better effect but perhaps because Biden is still in the picture they couldn't flip the script to frame Trump as being a weak, old, senile man yelling get off my lawn in enough time but I think waiting until after debate 1 when Biden looked Old and Trump looked "strong" really put her campaign behind the eight ball. Also it's hard to run a campaign based upon reminding people of how shit it was under Trump 4 years ago when it seems pretty shit to people today. Incumbents always pay the price when people are economically uncertain.
Stocks will definitely do well but unless people see real wage growth under Trump that at least matches Cost of Living increases the same people that are complaining about inflation now will be complaining about it 4 years from now because we all know that consumer prices aren't magically going to fall with a new president. Hell there isn't even the semblance of reducing consumer prices being talked about on the right. The tariff idea would actually do the opposite as would any sort of national regressive sales tax or VAT.
posted by vuron at 7:55 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I had been planning to drop off small prints of this watercolor (link to my instagram - image of Buddhas and Gloria Steinem with her “We shall overcome” sign) I made, inspired by a lovely collection of objects on top of my neighbor’s fridge. They would go to neighbors who had Harris signs in their yard. I wound up not being able to print them until yesterday evening. Everyone at the neighborhood election gathering got one and I took the others that I had and walked them over to people who had signs out. About 7:30, it was dark already and I was knocking on the doors of people I didn’t know or barely knew. I realized that people don’t just knock on other people’s doors anymore while I stood on porches waiting to see if folks would open up. And they did. And I had truly beautiful and heart warming interactions with neighbors who had also hoped for the best. I hope we can stay present in that feeling of connection, looking no further ahead than the next moment and the next thing we have to do for those around us. I am trying to hold on to that feeling as I attempt to process where we are and who we are as a country.
posted by tingting at 7:56 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by tingting at 7:56 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Domestic policy = Me first. The right tax rate is zero. If you take my money, you better do something directly for me with it.
The beauty of an assets tax is that if properly constructed it actually can reduce the tax rate to zero for most people.
A 2% annual assets tax payable on (a) all assets owned by a corporate person or (b) that portion of assets in excess of an assessed value of ten million dollars owned by a natural person, then most people won't pay it and yet it can still generate public revenue comparable to what the income tax does today.
posted by flabdablet at 7:56 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
The beauty of an assets tax is that if properly constructed it actually can reduce the tax rate to zero for most people.
A 2% annual assets tax payable on (a) all assets owned by a corporate person or (b) that portion of assets in excess of an assessed value of ten million dollars owned by a natural person, then most people won't pay it and yet it can still generate public revenue comparable to what the income tax does today.
posted by flabdablet at 7:56 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Can someone explain how Dems has 15 million fewer votes. Not 1.5 million. 15 million fewer votes. That's just......what?!!?!?!
posted by jasondigitized at 7:56 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by jasondigitized at 7:56 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
That’s because there are millions and millions of votes not counted yet, especially in California.
posted by mbrubeck at 7:58 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by mbrubeck at 7:58 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
You were marked as a troublemaker 10 years ago, hurriedly deleting things to try to cover your tracks now won't do any good.
You are much better off, assuming things get this bad, buying guns. Cops hate getting shot and when they have to choose between raiding a house with guns or raiding a house without them, they will choose the latter every time.
If you are any of the people likely to be targeted and live in the PNW hit me up and I will teach you how to shoot. It looks like that’s going to be way more valuable than the law degree I was working on.
posted by corb at 7:58 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
You are much better off, assuming things get this bad, buying guns. Cops hate getting shot and when they have to choose between raiding a house with guns or raiding a house without them, they will choose the latter every time.
If you are any of the people likely to be targeted and live in the PNW hit me up and I will teach you how to shoot. It looks like that’s going to be way more valuable than the law degree I was working on.
posted by corb at 7:58 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I guess as a woman I must not really want what I say I want or don't want
That's OK. We menfolk will protect you whether you want us to or not. That's official policy now, I hear.
posted by flabdablet at 7:58 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
That's OK. We menfolk will protect you whether you want us to or not. That's official policy now, I hear.
posted by flabdablet at 7:58 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
My comments above on Hungary were probably too long, so just read this:
The Hungary/Orbán fascism model the GOP wants to emulate isn't an update of Nazi fascism. It's an update of communist fascism. It's about absorbing and incorporating the apparatus of the state into the party, so that the party cannot be ousted, and so that the steady, workaday business of the government becomes the relentless, one inch at a time enactment of that party's agenda.
It moves slower, but it does so in order to cement each step and make any/all of it harder to undo. It's less immediately catastrophic, but this may last generations.
We are well and truly fucked, but make sure you understand in what way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:59 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
The Hungary/Orbán fascism model the GOP wants to emulate isn't an update of Nazi fascism. It's an update of communist fascism. It's about absorbing and incorporating the apparatus of the state into the party, so that the party cannot be ousted, and so that the steady, workaday business of the government becomes the relentless, one inch at a time enactment of that party's agenda.
It moves slower, but it does so in order to cement each step and make any/all of it harder to undo. It's less immediately catastrophic, but this may last generations.
We are well and truly fucked, but make sure you understand in what way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:59 AM on November 6 [38 favorites]
did anyone consider cancelling their Amazon Prime subscriptions to get at the REAL source of that problem
last week, in fact
posted by lescour at 8:00 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
last week, in fact
posted by lescour at 8:00 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
You are much better off, assuming things get this bad, buying guns.
Unless you are a person of color.
posted by NotLost at 8:01 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Unless you are a person of color.
posted by NotLost at 8:01 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
pjsky some of my family lives in Oregon (Eugene area) and my wife and I are really seriously thinking of going there even though she's Black and it's so white she'd always be the only Black parson in the room.
Neither of us are looking forward to 4 years (we hope only 4 years) of Trump while living in Texas.
vuron if Trump really does put in tariffs on imports then the economy will go rapidly downhill and inflation will surge. And if he really does deport all the undocumented migrants working in America then give sectors of the economy will collapse.
Note that Musk actually said that like it's a selling point! He said then he and Trump would use their business genius to build a new economy that would make everyone rich.
posted by sotonohito at 8:01 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Neither of us are looking forward to 4 years (we hope only 4 years) of Trump while living in Texas.
vuron if Trump really does put in tariffs on imports then the economy will go rapidly downhill and inflation will surge. And if he really does deport all the undocumented migrants working in America then give sectors of the economy will collapse.
Note that Musk actually said that like it's a selling point! He said then he and Trump would use their business genius to build a new economy that would make everyone rich.
posted by sotonohito at 8:01 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Well (as of now, 97-99% of votes counted) Wisconsin and Michigan could have turned
(but also: doesn't matter; those states wouldn't have been enough anyway. Ugh.)
posted by mazola at 8:03 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
(but also: doesn't matter; those states wouldn't have been enough anyway. Ugh.)
posted by mazola at 8:03 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
I loathe Ardent Progressives and Jill Putin voters as much as anyone, and this election wasn't their fault. It was white people engaged in misogyny and easily fooled by carefully-targeted propaganda.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 8:06 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 8:06 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
It's about absorbing and incorporating the apparatus of the state into the party,
So, fascism?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:07 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
So, fascism?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:07 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Well (as of now, 97-99% of votes counted) Wisconsin and Michigan could have turned if third party vote broke otherwise.
You're looking at all of the third party? Wrong thing to do.
Stein and West pulled overwhelmingly from otherwise-maybe-Democratic voters. But the libertarians pull from people who would vote Republican and Kennedy pulled from the antivax weirdos on both sides.
There weren't enough Stein+West voters anywhere to flip a state.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:08 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
You're looking at all of the third party? Wrong thing to do.
Stein and West pulled overwhelmingly from otherwise-maybe-Democratic voters. But the libertarians pull from people who would vote Republican and Kennedy pulled from the antivax weirdos on both sides.
There weren't enough Stein+West voters anywhere to flip a state.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:08 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
It's about absorbing and incorporating the apparatus of the state into the party,
posted by mazola at 8:09 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
So, fascism?As I understand it, Fascists typically have parallel apparatus to state. So, yes, a little different.
posted by mazola at 8:09 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
If you are any of the people likely to be targeted and live in the PNW hit me up and I will teach you how to shoot.
You do know that the Government has drones, right? You get that. You're bringing guns to a drone fight!
posted by flabdablet at 8:09 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
You do know that the Government has drones, right? You get that. You're bringing guns to a drone fight!
posted by flabdablet at 8:09 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
wait, are people talking about cancelling their Amazon Prime subscription now like it's a thing?
yes, that will show them
posted by ginger.beef at 8:09 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
yes, that will show them
posted by ginger.beef at 8:09 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
if Trump really does put in tariffs on imports then the economy will go rapidly downhill and inflation will surge.
... and that's the point at which right wing authoritarian governments start casting around for new scapegoats to blame it on.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:10 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
... and that's the point at which right wing authoritarian governments start casting around for new scapegoats to blame it on.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:10 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
did anyone consider cancelling their Amazon Prime subscriptions to get at the REAL source of that problem?
For those among the readers here who are in localities or for other reasons unable to stop buying from Amazon, consider as a small form of resistance that you might want to add a Prime subscription and spread all your purchases out as much as possible to cost Amazon more than you pay them.
Yes there are awful externalities to that strategy but it is possible to be a drain on Amazon coffers if it is not feasible to stop buying from them entirely. I'm not saying everyone should do this by any means, but for some folks in specific circumstances, it might be something to consider.
posted by tclark at 8:15 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
For those among the readers here who are in localities or for other reasons unable to stop buying from Amazon, consider as a small form of resistance that you might want to add a Prime subscription and spread all your purchases out as much as possible to cost Amazon more than you pay them.
Yes there are awful externalities to that strategy but it is possible to be a drain on Amazon coffers if it is not feasible to stop buying from them entirely. I'm not saying everyone should do this by any means, but for some folks in specific circumstances, it might be something to consider.
posted by tclark at 8:15 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
So, fascism?
Fascism comes in several flavors, alas.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:15 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Fascism comes in several flavors, alas.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:15 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Excerpts from this fine article, "There is hope — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency"
Trust yourself - FindingSteadyGround.com
Find others who you trust - an agenda for gatherings
Grieve
Release that which you cannot change - part of scenario planning
Find your path - Protecting People, Defending Civic Institutions, Disrupt and Disobey, Building Alternatives
(Your path may not be clear right now. That’s okay. There will be plenty of opportunities to join the resistance.)
Do not obey in advance, do not self-censor - video series
Use the political space and voice you have.
Reorient your political map - How we position ourselves matters: Are we interested in engaging with people unhappy with the regime — whether because they love the current institutions or are unhappy with Trump’s policies on them? Are we able to tell a story that explains how we got here — and do political education? Or are we only interested in maintaining ideological purity and preaching to our own choir?
Get real about power - Power can be unstable. It relies on pillars of support to keep it upright. Removing one pillar of support can often gain major, life-saving concessions. (Examples in the article)
Handle fear, make violence rebound - Handling fear isn’t about suppressing it — but it is about constantly redirecting. Commit to not growing fear.
Making political violence rebound requires refusing to be intimidated and resisting those threats so they can backfire.
Envision a positive future - That feels far away from now. But all these remain possibilities. Practicing this future thinking and seeing into these directions gives me some hope and some strategic sensibilities.
On the days when I can’t sense any of these political possibilities (more than not), I zoom out further to the lifespans of trees and rocks, heading into spiritual reminders that nothing lasts forever.
All of the future is uncertain. But using these things, we’re more likely to have a more hopeful future and experience during these turbulent times.
Mutual Aid 101
posted by Hardcore Poser at 8:17 AM on November 6 [58 favorites]
Trust yourself - FindingSteadyGround.com
Find others who you trust - an agenda for gatherings
Grieve
Release that which you cannot change - part of scenario planning
Find your path - Protecting People, Defending Civic Institutions, Disrupt and Disobey, Building Alternatives
(Your path may not be clear right now. That’s okay. There will be plenty of opportunities to join the resistance.)
Do not obey in advance, do not self-censor - video series
Use the political space and voice you have.
Reorient your political map - How we position ourselves matters: Are we interested in engaging with people unhappy with the regime — whether because they love the current institutions or are unhappy with Trump’s policies on them? Are we able to tell a story that explains how we got here — and do political education? Or are we only interested in maintaining ideological purity and preaching to our own choir?
Get real about power - Power can be unstable. It relies on pillars of support to keep it upright. Removing one pillar of support can often gain major, life-saving concessions. (Examples in the article)
Handle fear, make violence rebound - Handling fear isn’t about suppressing it — but it is about constantly redirecting. Commit to not growing fear.
Making political violence rebound requires refusing to be intimidated and resisting those threats so they can backfire.
Envision a positive future - That feels far away from now. But all these remain possibilities. Practicing this future thinking and seeing into these directions gives me some hope and some strategic sensibilities.
On the days when I can’t sense any of these political possibilities (more than not), I zoom out further to the lifespans of trees and rocks, heading into spiritual reminders that nothing lasts forever.
All of the future is uncertain. But using these things, we’re more likely to have a more hopeful future and experience during these turbulent times.
Mutual Aid 101
posted by Hardcore Poser at 8:17 AM on November 6 [58 favorites]
because they could fuck up a grilled cheese sandwich.
Even a bad grilled cheese sandwich is better than going to work.
(IYKYK. Lore from a saner time)
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:17 AM on November 6
Even a bad grilled cheese sandwich is better than going to work.
(IYKYK. Lore from a saner time)
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:17 AM on November 6
start casting around for new scapegoats to blame it on
Standard playbook involves simply assigning additional blames to the standard and therefore already well established scapegoats. Immigrants first, then minority religious groups, then anybody who shows any sign of organized resistance or can even be semi-plausibly accused of it (resistance being traitorous as a matter of faith).
Hate first, blame later. That's the way to get the maximum bang for your propaganda buck.
posted by flabdablet at 8:20 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Standard playbook involves simply assigning additional blames to the standard and therefore already well established scapegoats. Immigrants first, then minority religious groups, then anybody who shows any sign of organized resistance or can even be semi-plausibly accused of it (resistance being traitorous as a matter of faith).
Hate first, blame later. That's the way to get the maximum bang for your propaganda buck.
posted by flabdablet at 8:20 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Does this mean we're recommissioning the Fucking Fuck Metatalk threads?
posted by Molesome at 8:21 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by Molesome at 8:21 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Can someone explain how Dems has 15 million fewer votes. Not 1.5 million. 15 million fewer votes. That's just......what?!!?!?!
That’s because there are millions and millions of votes not counted yet, especially in California
In fact the first time somebody posted this in the thread it was 20 million!
(California ~half counted is not going to completely fill a 15 million gap but yeah, it’s too early to be saying stuff like this, and honestly, sadly, this feels like an election with plenty of votes flipping, not just one party staying home).
posted by atoxyl at 8:22 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
That’s because there are millions and millions of votes not counted yet, especially in California
In fact the first time somebody posted this in the thread it was 20 million!
(California ~half counted is not going to completely fill a 15 million gap but yeah, it’s too early to be saying stuff like this, and honestly, sadly, this feels like an election with plenty of votes flipping, not just one party staying home).
posted by atoxyl at 8:22 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Also Jill Stein actually got fewer votes in Michigan than in 2016, though some of that may be cannibalism by RFK etc.
posted by atoxyl at 8:23 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by atoxyl at 8:23 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Was too slow to find the grilled cheese sandwich thing which became a trope. Holy crap, 2009.
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:24 AM on November 6
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:24 AM on November 6
wait, are people talking about cancelling their Amazon Prime subscription now like it's a thing?
The question I was ACTUALLY asking was, why weren't more people talking about cancelling their subscriptions THEN?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:24 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
The question I was ACTUALLY asking was, why weren't more people talking about cancelling their subscriptions THEN?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:24 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
You do know that the Government has drones, right? You get that. You're bringing guns to a drone fight!
My advice was as a defensive measure to make themselves a less attractive target for individuals worried about being targeted for being normal level subversives; I am not suggesting arming or training a Metafilter militia or providing advice on the internet for how to fight a guerilla war. If it looks like it’s going that way, I suggest getting your children out of the country and making your decisions from there. Have passports and an exit plan, and leave six months before you think you need to.
posted by corb at 8:25 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
My advice was as a defensive measure to make themselves a less attractive target for individuals worried about being targeted for being normal level subversives; I am not suggesting arming or training a Metafilter militia or providing advice on the internet for how to fight a guerilla war. If it looks like it’s going that way, I suggest getting your children out of the country and making your decisions from there. Have passports and an exit plan, and leave six months before you think you need to.
posted by corb at 8:25 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Harris made some mistakes but ran a pretty good campaign considering what she was saddled with: a shitty economy and not a lot of time. IMHO the die was cast with Biden being the nominee in 2020. It was visible then that he was deteriorating, it was never clear that he was going to be up for two terms, and then he waits until, what, the summer of 2024 to step down and Harris has only a couple months to run a campaign and get her message out?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:25 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:25 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Part of me wants to lash out and sever all my connections to every Trump voter, saying terrrrrrrible things to them on the way out.
The saner part of me wants to turn inward to the local organizations who I already serve -- the library, the community farm, Scouts -- and build those up, so that the young people have a space with some hope.
I know I gotta do the second one, but I really want someone to turn a flamethrower on these hateful, destructive assholes for a while and watch them melt like the two Nazis in "Raiders of the Lost Ark."
posted by wenestvedt at 8:25 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
The saner part of me wants to turn inward to the local organizations who I already serve -- the library, the community farm, Scouts -- and build those up, so that the young people have a space with some hope.
I know I gotta do the second one, but I really want someone to turn a flamethrower on these hateful, destructive assholes for a while and watch them melt like the two Nazis in "Raiders of the Lost Ark."
posted by wenestvedt at 8:25 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I guess the plus side of a Trump administration is that they don't care at all what they promised 10 minutes ago. RFK is yesterday's news: those agencies are owned by the drug companies now.
It’s a weird position to be in that I see articles about Trump appealing to his Wall Street cronies for help staffing his administration and think “whew, he might just be a Republican after all.”
posted by atoxyl at 8:25 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
It’s a weird position to be in that I see articles about Trump appealing to his Wall Street cronies for help staffing his administration and think “whew, he might just be a Republican after all.”
posted by atoxyl at 8:25 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Part of me wants to lash out and sever all my connections to every Trump voter, saying terrrrrrrible things to them on the way out.
Most of them will also be harmed by the changes in the coming years
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:27 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Most of them will also be harmed by the changes in the coming years
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:27 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
...that may be cannibalism by RFK ...
I wouldn't put it past him.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:27 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I wouldn't put it past him.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:27 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
There is one tiny improvement over yesterday: at least the 10,000 texts begging for money for Harris have stopped.
posted by sotonohito at 8:28 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by sotonohito at 8:28 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Americans are going to need to learn how to strike like the French. Not safe rallies on the National Mall with pink hats and funny signs. I'm talking shutting things down. Non compliance. Grinding the wheels of commerce to a halt. If/when Trump supporters start to realize his and Elon Musk's economic policies are going to hit their wallets real hard, I will stand with them in non violent protest.
posted by pjsky at 8:29 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 8:29 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
I was just now made cheerful for a good five seconds on realizing that RFK and TFG have the same middle name.
posted by flabdablet at 8:29 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 8:29 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Can someone please fact check me because I think I may be coping with this by becoming delulu. Am I the only one who literally cannot fathom how it’s possible that he got so many votes, to the point where I’m wondering if he cheated somehow? I’m genuinely not normally a conspiracy theorist, have not seen this on social media, and am huge on fact checking literally anything that I see posted online. But I just…. how did that monster get so many votes? Especially so many black and Latino votes?? I can just imagine him rambling about how much “the blacks and Latinos love him” while pulling god only knows what.
I’ve spent all morning racking my brain on how such a thing would be logistically possible and I’m not coming up with much. It seems like it would be a massive operation across multiple states and very hard to pull off. But I don’t know?? Elon Musk has a lot of money and absolutely no moral compass so ???
I’m probably just delusional because it’s too painful to think that so many people would actually vote for this monster, and four more years feels unimaginable to me. I’m also living in a fantasy world where they discover the fraud, recount the votes, Kamala wins, and he goes to jail! Unhelpful but comforting.
So yeah if someone could try to bring me back to earth or at least let me know I’m not alone in this craziness that would be great.
posted by Amy93 at 8:33 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
I’ve spent all morning racking my brain on how such a thing would be logistically possible and I’m not coming up with much. It seems like it would be a massive operation across multiple states and very hard to pull off. But I don’t know?? Elon Musk has a lot of money and absolutely no moral compass so ???
I’m probably just delusional because it’s too painful to think that so many people would actually vote for this monster, and four more years feels unimaginable to me. I’m also living in a fantasy world where they discover the fraud, recount the votes, Kamala wins, and he goes to jail! Unhelpful but comforting.
So yeah if someone could try to bring me back to earth or at least let me know I’m not alone in this craziness that would be great.
posted by Amy93 at 8:33 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
If/when Trump supporters start to realize his and Elon Musk's economic policies are going to hit their wallets real hard
They never will. When Trump inevitably fucks up the economy, he'll blame Democrats, liberals, and immigrants, and use it to justify ratcheting up the fascism.
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 8:35 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
They never will. When Trump inevitably fucks up the economy, he'll blame Democrats, liberals, and immigrants, and use it to justify ratcheting up the fascism.
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 8:35 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I'm absolutely with you, Amy. I am completely mind-boggled that so many people could vote for that man.
posted by frecklefaerie at 8:36 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by frecklefaerie at 8:36 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
The key swing states and counties that handed Trump the White House – a visual analysis: Donald Trump has claimed the White House for a second time. We analyse which areas swung to Republicans to help him win back the presidency [The Guardian]
Whizzy (and depressing).
posted by mazola at 8:38 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Whizzy (and depressing).
posted by mazola at 8:38 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I don't think that the idea of cheating is a possible explanation. There's not a single set of voting tabulating machines that could pull this off. The changes were pervasive and over a huge number of municipalities.
The Latino vote edging toward Trump. I blame the takeover of Univision. The rural solidification, I blame the death of independent local papers.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:38 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
The Latino vote edging toward Trump. I blame the takeover of Univision. The rural solidification, I blame the death of independent local papers.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:38 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Am I the only one who literally cannot fathom how it’s possible that he got so many votes
Have you tried to by a house or bananas in the last year? For many it's the current administrations fault.
"It's the economy, stupid" (to coin a phrase:)
posted by sammyo at 8:39 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Have you tried to by a house or bananas in the last year? For many it's the current administrations fault.
"It's the economy, stupid" (to coin a phrase:)
posted by sammyo at 8:39 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I wonder how much was the effect of the bomb threats at polling sites.
posted by NotLost at 8:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 8:39 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Striking like the French would've been helpful before the cons gutted the unions globally. Would've helped prevent the current dissatisfaction and rise of the authoritarian populists.
The Cosmodemonic Telegraph Company wants to move your job to a factory in "Chainah"?
Meat Packers, Teamsters and Postal Workers got your back.
Makes for a less pure implementation of The Wealth of Nations, but keeps jobs around and people happy.
It's the exact same kind of parochial protectionism as espoused by MAGA and tariffs but actually driven by workers and not by the anti-worker party that caused it in the first place.
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:39 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
The Cosmodemonic Telegraph Company wants to move your job to a factory in "Chainah"?
Meat Packers, Teamsters and Postal Workers got your back.
Makes for a less pure implementation of The Wealth of Nations, but keeps jobs around and people happy.
It's the exact same kind of parochial protectionism as espoused by MAGA and tariffs but actually driven by workers and not by the anti-worker party that caused it in the first place.
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:39 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Do you think that Hunter Biden's already out of the country, or is the plane still on the runway?
posted by delfin at 8:40 AM on November 6
posted by delfin at 8:40 AM on November 6
I will stand with them in non violent protest
China and Russia already deal with that, very efficiently. As for the leaders, those that don't take the bribe will face Qanon arrest and execution.
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:41 AM on November 6
China and Russia already deal with that, very efficiently. As for the leaders, those that don't take the bribe will face Qanon arrest and execution.
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:41 AM on November 6
Markets have been open for 7 minutes and the S&P500 is up over 2 percent. That's all that matters, right?
In the short term at least, the nightmare scenario has been avoided -- with a clear winner and no Jan 6th part 2 anticipated.
Longer term, I suppose the assumption is the Trump administration will call off the antitrust attack dogs, reduce corporate taxes, and substantially reform the Federal Reserve. The post 2028 outlook probably less rosy, as his main agenda is likely to be eroding checks on the Presidency and finding a way towards n=3.
But it's not at all clear that Vance -- who will be serving as VP to the oldest President ever -- wants the same things. He's been pretty critical of big tech, which is a huge component of the cap weighted S&P500 index. And he's (cautiously) pro union. Of course, he has also earned a reputation of saying anything to get closer to power; this is a guy who eight years ago said his running mate was "America's Hitler."
posted by pwnguin at 8:42 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
In the short term at least, the nightmare scenario has been avoided -- with a clear winner and no Jan 6th part 2 anticipated.
Longer term, I suppose the assumption is the Trump administration will call off the antitrust attack dogs, reduce corporate taxes, and substantially reform the Federal Reserve. The post 2028 outlook probably less rosy, as his main agenda is likely to be eroding checks on the Presidency and finding a way towards n=3.
But it's not at all clear that Vance -- who will be serving as VP to the oldest President ever -- wants the same things. He's been pretty critical of big tech, which is a huge component of the cap weighted S&P500 index. And he's (cautiously) pro union. Of course, he has also earned a reputation of saying anything to get closer to power; this is a guy who eight years ago said his running mate was "America's Hitler."
posted by pwnguin at 8:42 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Why are Americans such wusses regarding inflation? I mean, inflation happened, but less here than the rest of the world. Some places had it very bad.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:45 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:45 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I think we all presumed that Vance thought "America's Hitler" was a BAD thing. So really this is kind of on us. We should have asked.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:46 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:46 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Why are Americans such wusses regarding inflation? I mean, inflation happened, but less here than the rest of the world. Some places had it very bad.
All over the world inflation led to the ousting of incumbents, not sure what point you're trying to make.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:47 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
All over the world inflation led to the ousting of incumbents, not sure what point you're trying to make.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:47 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Oh boy this is rough.
Trevor Noah had some interesting things to say about why people go in for Trump (it’s a long listen, but worth it if you’re ready for it). It might not be what anyone wants to hear right know, so maybe save it for later. Right now you are all absolutely entitle to some time to rage and grieve. The analysis can come later.
I’m Canadian and I’m very afraid of what comes next both for my American friends and for what it means for my country. We have our own fascist wannabe waiting in the wings. I just hope our checks and balances can withstand it.
posted by eekernohan at 8:48 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Trevor Noah had some interesting things to say about why people go in for Trump (it’s a long listen, but worth it if you’re ready for it). It might not be what anyone wants to hear right know, so maybe save it for later. Right now you are all absolutely entitle to some time to rage and grieve. The analysis can come later.
I’m Canadian and I’m very afraid of what comes next both for my American friends and for what it means for my country. We have our own fascist wannabe waiting in the wings. I just hope our checks and balances can withstand it.
posted by eekernohan at 8:48 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
It’s a weird position to be in that I see articles about Trump appealing to his Wall Street cronies for help staffing his administration and think “whew, he might just be a Republican after all.”
That’s Trump’s dirty secret- in many ways, he governed like a typical Republican! He cut taxes! Jeb Bush would’ve made similar Supreme Court picks! Romney was a low-key border hawk!
posted by Apocryphon at 8:49 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
That’s Trump’s dirty secret- in many ways, he governed like a typical Republican! He cut taxes! Jeb Bush would’ve made similar Supreme Court picks! Romney was a low-key border hawk!
posted by Apocryphon at 8:49 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
The problem with the Christian Nationalists implementing Orban style fascism is that it's hard to achieve quickly especially within a federal system where so much of the apparatus of government is at the state and local level. Even in the Federal government career civil servants just continue to do their job day after day. Trump will put in political appointees at the agencies just like he did last time and they'll be dumb assholes who are more interested in lining their own pockets and the pockets of friends and family members just like the last Trump administration. There will be fiefdoms and infighting just like every authoritarian leader seems to create where people are jealous of personal power and simply fail to achieve some sort of grand objective.
The vast majority of government is the bureaucratic layer and if the bureaucratic layer is good at anything it's at slowing down anything that threatens the bureaucratic layer. Some agency head will come in looking to make a big splash but they'll immediately get mired down in the challenges of actually implementing changes because changes take a long time at an agency level.
I'm not saying it's impossible but it's hard to do even if you are following a pre-existing playbook and honestly if you are a political appointee wouldn't you rather spend your time traveling or steering procurements in a way that gives you access to generational wealth? The reality is that there isn't some brilliant masterminds on the right, they have some people good at retail politics but their bench in terms of actually implementing sustained change is pretty small and lets be honest the underpinings of the Christian Nationalist agenda aren't even remotely appealing when they aren't just being applied to out-groups like lgbt+, immigrants, etc. We tend to be pretty transactional in how we interact with government and the value proposition inherent in this playbook isn't really appealing to most Americans. They'll tolerate it if it doesn't impact them directly but when it does start hitting a sizeable number of Americans in a negative way it tends to result in pretty significant backlash.
The reality is that most of the money people don't really want Christian Nationalism, they might tolerate trappings of it and the voters that want that shit are reliable voters, but they will be strongly incentivized to get their proxies into positions to loosen regulations as much as possible and steer contracts towards firms of their choosing and way less incentivized to try to push all the really unpopular shit that would result in a big electoral pushback. Strange bedfellows works during election season but tends to suck when it comes to actually governing.
posted by vuron at 8:53 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
The vast majority of government is the bureaucratic layer and if the bureaucratic layer is good at anything it's at slowing down anything that threatens the bureaucratic layer. Some agency head will come in looking to make a big splash but they'll immediately get mired down in the challenges of actually implementing changes because changes take a long time at an agency level.
I'm not saying it's impossible but it's hard to do even if you are following a pre-existing playbook and honestly if you are a political appointee wouldn't you rather spend your time traveling or steering procurements in a way that gives you access to generational wealth? The reality is that there isn't some brilliant masterminds on the right, they have some people good at retail politics but their bench in terms of actually implementing sustained change is pretty small and lets be honest the underpinings of the Christian Nationalist agenda aren't even remotely appealing when they aren't just being applied to out-groups like lgbt+, immigrants, etc. We tend to be pretty transactional in how we interact with government and the value proposition inherent in this playbook isn't really appealing to most Americans. They'll tolerate it if it doesn't impact them directly but when it does start hitting a sizeable number of Americans in a negative way it tends to result in pretty significant backlash.
The reality is that most of the money people don't really want Christian Nationalism, they might tolerate trappings of it and the voters that want that shit are reliable voters, but they will be strongly incentivized to get their proxies into positions to loosen regulations as much as possible and steer contracts towards firms of their choosing and way less incentivized to try to push all the really unpopular shit that would result in a big electoral pushback. Strange bedfellows works during election season but tends to suck when it comes to actually governing.
posted by vuron at 8:53 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Especially so many black and Latino votes??
His support with Black and Latino men has been growing in the polls for a while. The cited reasons from some of the thinkpieces talking to these men are usually the economy and being able to support their family.
One of the things I think us as progressives have not put enough emphasis on is that as we have worked to free women from the patriarchy, we have not done as much to remove the expectation that men be providers of the household. Women are more free to also provide for themselves, but we have very little concept of a man who can’t provide for his family. A stay at home wife, even long after children have left the home, is unremarkable. A stay at home husband whether he’s caring for children or not, is still largely unthinkable.
We can say all we want “well men impose that on themselves,” the fact is that expectation is still there and is a driving force in men’s behavior. If the economy is bad (or they feel the effects in ways that make them think it is) and men still believe their worth is tied up in their ability to provide, they are going to vote for the person they hope will improve the economy (however false that hope may be). Including many Black and Latino men, who may feel that their ability to financially support their family comes above all else.
There’s been talk of the stereotypical single guy who listens to Joe Rogan and hates women. While that may be part of it, in exit polls unmarried men went for Harris 49 to 47. Married men went for Trump 59 to 39. And Trump’s support was highest in the $30k-$100k income brackets (lower and higher incomes both went for Harris by several points). Which likely includes a lot of married Black and Latino men.
I don’t know if that’s the full picture, but I’m betting it’s part of it.
posted by brook horse at 8:55 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
His support with Black and Latino men has been growing in the polls for a while. The cited reasons from some of the thinkpieces talking to these men are usually the economy and being able to support their family.
One of the things I think us as progressives have not put enough emphasis on is that as we have worked to free women from the patriarchy, we have not done as much to remove the expectation that men be providers of the household. Women are more free to also provide for themselves, but we have very little concept of a man who can’t provide for his family. A stay at home wife, even long after children have left the home, is unremarkable. A stay at home husband whether he’s caring for children or not, is still largely unthinkable.
We can say all we want “well men impose that on themselves,” the fact is that expectation is still there and is a driving force in men’s behavior. If the economy is bad (or they feel the effects in ways that make them think it is) and men still believe their worth is tied up in their ability to provide, they are going to vote for the person they hope will improve the economy (however false that hope may be). Including many Black and Latino men, who may feel that their ability to financially support their family comes above all else.
There’s been talk of the stereotypical single guy who listens to Joe Rogan and hates women. While that may be part of it, in exit polls unmarried men went for Harris 49 to 47. Married men went for Trump 59 to 39. And Trump’s support was highest in the $30k-$100k income brackets (lower and higher incomes both went for Harris by several points). Which likely includes a lot of married Black and Latino men.
I don’t know if that’s the full picture, but I’m betting it’s part of it.
posted by brook horse at 8:55 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
So my BiL is a Trump supporter. His youngest daughter is gay. He doesn't accept that she's gay, it's "just a phase." I mean, aside from that, I can't believe you'd choose your white man ideology over your own child's safety, but I guess that's Trump voters in a nutshell. I wish my sister could leave him but unfortunately she is financially tied to him. He has ground her down to the point where she doesn't believe in herself, doesn't believe she could thrive on her own with her kids, and christ I hate this whole fucking Trump shit
posted by Kitteh at 8:56 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 8:56 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
Maybe the election will be a wake up call the DRC their strategies don't win elections. More likely they'll blame someone else.
posted by iamck at 8:57 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by iamck at 8:57 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Black and Latino voters moving right should be a wakeup call.
It won't be, you can already see it in this thread with the talk of "scapegoats".
There's a large contingent on the left that simply can't comprehend that what they believe about the world (all POC, young people, and non-straight/cis people are inherently good leftists and it's merely a small contingent of elderly white reactionaries who need to be dealt with) is wrong. You can see it in people casting about for excuses or that this must be some kind of mistake or trick, or that even speaking of any shift in these groups is "scapegoating".
They can't face the reality that these voter groups all have their own needs and priorities and it was a huge mistake to assume their support without working for it which left openings for Trump/the Republicans to exploit. Not to mention the even more uncomfortable reality that on the whole Black and Latino populations are more religious and socially conservative than average and, if not for the Republican history of racism, might actually more naturally lean towards that party.
Not that the Republicans aren't racist, but clearly just repeating that while not providing more isn't working.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:57 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
It won't be, you can already see it in this thread with the talk of "scapegoats".
There's a large contingent on the left that simply can't comprehend that what they believe about the world (all POC, young people, and non-straight/cis people are inherently good leftists and it's merely a small contingent of elderly white reactionaries who need to be dealt with) is wrong. You can see it in people casting about for excuses or that this must be some kind of mistake or trick, or that even speaking of any shift in these groups is "scapegoating".
They can't face the reality that these voter groups all have their own needs and priorities and it was a huge mistake to assume their support without working for it which left openings for Trump/the Republicans to exploit. Not to mention the even more uncomfortable reality that on the whole Black and Latino populations are more religious and socially conservative than average and, if not for the Republican history of racism, might actually more naturally lean towards that party.
Not that the Republicans aren't racist, but clearly just repeating that while not providing more isn't working.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:57 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
>Why are Americans such wusses regarding inflation?
Along with attempts at student loan forgiveness, It's the one bad thing that happened in Biden's term, so that's the main GOP made an issue out of. As somebody said above, it was a displacement tactic.
up to half CPI inflation was just due to rent increases. Theoretically – since landlords always say they only pass on their costs to renters – rents should have gone down when mortgage rates were rock bottom in 2021. they didn't tho.
posted by torokunai at 9:00 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Along with attempts at student loan forgiveness, It's the one bad thing that happened in Biden's term, so that's the main GOP made an issue out of. As somebody said above, it was a displacement tactic.
up to half CPI inflation was just due to rent increases. Theoretically – since landlords always say they only pass on their costs to renters – rents should have gone down when mortgage rates were rock bottom in 2021. they didn't tho.
posted by torokunai at 9:00 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
... there's a roughly 20,000,000 vote discrepancy between Kamala and Joe. Is that realistic? Is that statistically probable? Serious question. Because I would expect Trump and co to fuck with the vote, and if they do it's imperative (Imperative!) they be stopped, and called to account - no matter if the AP and NYTimes and Fox and your racist uncle all say otherwise.
but maybe it's reasonable that Kamala got some 20,000,000 fewer votes than Biden.
but if it's not - we don't 'have' to do Trump. (Conspiracy theorist? No. But that vote discrepancy is huuuuge - I know, some of that will fill in over the next week as mail-in votes are counted... but enough? statistically?)
posted by From Bklyn at 9:02 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
but maybe it's reasonable that Kamala got some 20,000,000 fewer votes than Biden.
but if it's not - we don't 'have' to do Trump. (Conspiracy theorist? No. But that vote discrepancy is huuuuge - I know, some of that will fill in over the next week as mail-in votes are counted... but enough? statistically?)
posted by From Bklyn at 9:02 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Amazing how Republicans have mastered the art of "Fuck things up and destroy anything done for the common good, blame the demise of the good thing on Democrats, Promise the masses the Republicans are the only ones who can fix it. Republicans then DON'T fix it, they privatize it and make it worse." Rinse, repeat.
brook horse - you make a lot of excellent points in your comment. It's makes sense that a lot of men still base their sense of self-worth on being providers. And with wage suppression and inflation that is difficult right now. The maddening thing is, they think Trump will help with that, and his policies will do the opposite.
posted by pjsky at 9:02 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
brook horse - you make a lot of excellent points in your comment. It's makes sense that a lot of men still base their sense of self-worth on being providers. And with wage suppression and inflation that is difficult right now. The maddening thing is, they think Trump will help with that, and his policies will do the opposite.
posted by pjsky at 9:02 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Even in the Federal government career civil servants just continue to do their job day after day.
They literally plan to fire all of these people and replace them with toadies.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:03 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
They literally plan to fire all of these people and replace them with toadies.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:03 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
but maybe it's reasonable that Kamala got some 20,000,000 fewer votes than Biden.
Not all votes are counted.
There's no county where Harris did better than Biden.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:03 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Not all votes are counted.
There's no county where Harris did better than Biden.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:03 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
It's also necessary to admit that non-white groups can be bigoted against each other and find some kind of way to shine a spotlight on it where it is being cynically exploited. Without getting into an argument about whether it's permissible to call that "racism" because only white people are capable of being "racist."
(A message which hasn't worked out too well politically, though I understand it intellectually in terms of global white supremacy and its historiography. Intellectualism has never fared well in American politics. Cue mentions of Adlai Stevenson. I should probably go read Thomas Frank's recent book on populism now.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:06 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
(A message which hasn't worked out too well politically, though I understand it intellectually in terms of global white supremacy and its historiography. Intellectualism has never fared well in American politics. Cue mentions of Adlai Stevenson. I should probably go read Thomas Frank's recent book on populism now.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:06 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Theoretically – since landlords always say they only pass on their costs to renters – rents should have gone down when mortgage rates were rock bottom in 2021
I'm sure there are landlords who claim that, but there's no such theory. Good old-fashioned supply and demand is much more useful. There's a housing supply shortage, so prices increased.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:07 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I'm sure there are landlords who claim that, but there's no such theory. Good old-fashioned supply and demand is much more useful. There's a housing supply shortage, so prices increased.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:07 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Woke up this morning. Read the news. Fuck.
posted by lock robster at 9:08 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 9:08 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
but maybe it's reasonable that Kamala got some 20,000,000 fewer votes than Biden.
It has to be - it's the only explanation. She massively underperformed because the electorate was deeply unhappy with the direction of the country and blamed the Biden-Harris administration. As noted above, she didn't outperform Biden at all.
posted by fortitude25 at 9:08 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
It has to be - it's the only explanation. She massively underperformed because the electorate was deeply unhappy with the direction of the country and blamed the Biden-Harris administration. As noted above, she didn't outperform Biden at all.
posted by fortitude25 at 9:08 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Statistical question: Should we consider the voter base is missing not just the disenfranchised, but also deceased from the reduced health conditions adjacent and related to COVID? (If this is even more or as significant as those who either not voted or who didn't vote at the top line)
posted by cendawanita at 9:11 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 9:11 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
In 2016 I was disappointed. This time, I'm angry. Not disappointed, not sad, not even really worried or afraid, just angry.
As someone who works in politics and government, the constant refrain I heard as the numbers came in and it became clear Trump would be President again was "Now the work starts/the work continues/permutations of time to get to work trying to make things better." At a certain point, it started to kind of disgust me. I started thinking... why? Why bother doing the work? Why bother trying to make things better for a country of people that keeps doing this? There are people around the world struggling, sacrificing, dying for democracy. Americans who (for the most part) have gotten to enjoy the opportunities of democracy all their lives just voted to give it up without a fight.
The morning after, the fatalistic part of that anger, the "why bother, let them have what they clearly want" has faded, but the anger is still there. And I might as well put it to use. So the work does start now/continue/whatever. It's the only thing we can do.
That being said, seriously though, I hope every person who voted for Donald Trump suffers for it. Not just because I'm petty and vindictive and want them to hurt (though those are also true). The only way the body politic will stop being stupid is if its own stupidity hurts it.
posted by Method Man at 9:12 AM on November 6 [52 favorites]
As someone who works in politics and government, the constant refrain I heard as the numbers came in and it became clear Trump would be President again was "Now the work starts/the work continues/permutations of time to get to work trying to make things better." At a certain point, it started to kind of disgust me. I started thinking... why? Why bother doing the work? Why bother trying to make things better for a country of people that keeps doing this? There are people around the world struggling, sacrificing, dying for democracy. Americans who (for the most part) have gotten to enjoy the opportunities of democracy all their lives just voted to give it up without a fight.
The morning after, the fatalistic part of that anger, the "why bother, let them have what they clearly want" has faded, but the anger is still there. And I might as well put it to use. So the work does start now/continue/whatever. It's the only thing we can do.
That being said, seriously though, I hope every person who voted for Donald Trump suffers for it. Not just because I'm petty and vindictive and want them to hurt (though those are also true). The only way the body politic will stop being stupid is if its own stupidity hurts it.
posted by Method Man at 9:12 AM on November 6 [52 favorites]
there's a roughly 20,000,000 vote discrepancy between Kamala and JoeNo, there is not. The gap has already shrunk to under 15 million, and there are millions of ballots we haven’t counted yet in deep blue states.
I’m starting to think it’s irresponsible of news organizations to print a "popular vote total" at this point when we're not even close to having counts from e.g. California.
posted by mbrubeck at 9:12 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
she didn't outperform Biden at all.
...and that seems weird to me. Not conclusive, but weird. No, once all the votes are in and etc., and there's a clearer sense of how things break down, I'll probably be convinced - but right now, at this half-baked point... it smells off.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
...and that seems weird to me. Not conclusive, but weird. No, once all the votes are in and etc., and there's a clearer sense of how things break down, I'll probably be convinced - but right now, at this half-baked point... it smells off.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Well it looks like the USA is going full circle, back to when only the voices of rich white men mattered.
posted by achrise at 9:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by achrise at 9:13 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Re: underperforming in all counties, that’s misinformation from Tapper misreading a map showing state level data as county level. As of 2am EST she outperformed by 3% or more in 58 counties, but we don’t have all the votes in either way.
posted by brook horse at 9:13 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 9:13 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Statistical question: Should we consider the voter base is missing not just the disenfranchised, but also deceased from the reduced health conditions adjacent and related to COVID? (If this is even more or as significant as those who either not voted or who didn't vote at the top line)
That feels like a fine tuning knob kinda deal, cendawanita.
This election was done with the broad adjustment knob. Casual voters didn't like the economy, flipped switch from D to R.
The only positive aspect of that is, we can stop arguing here about what refinements Harris could have done on her positions. They didn't matter anyway.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:14 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
That feels like a fine tuning knob kinda deal, cendawanita.
This election was done with the broad adjustment knob. Casual voters didn't like the economy, flipped switch from D to R.
The only positive aspect of that is, we can stop arguing here about what refinements Harris could have done on her positions. They didn't matter anyway.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:14 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Can someone explain how Dems has 15 million fewer votes. Not 1.5 million. 15 million fewer votes. That's just......what?!!?!?!
Experience trumps imagination. The 2020 vote was close, and TFG has been bleating ever since then that they must have cheated to win that election because his vote was historically high, which it was. Biden won it only off the back of massive Democratic turnout, motivated by the clear and immediate misery of having had to put up with that loathsome orange shitstain being utterly inescapable every day for four years.
This time around the clear and immediate misery is the cost of living, which always hurts the incumbent regardless of whose policies address it better, because low-information voters. There's also been a resurgence of the widespread perception that voting is kind of pointless because there's really not all that much difference between the two wings of the US Corporate Welfare Party, a perception driven partly by the full-throated support that both wings have been giving for keeping up the supply of murder weapons to the Palestinian extermination drive, and partly by people simply having memory-holed the most miserable aspects of life under TFG.
TFG's deliberately and comprehensively deluded support base never went away, remaining about as potent and motivated as they were in 2020. Difference this time around is that TFG is now a far more abstract threat than he was then, a threat that the Democrats have simply not been able to fire up enough sane voters to counter.
That's how it looks from Australia, anyway.
posted by flabdablet at 9:15 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Experience trumps imagination. The 2020 vote was close, and TFG has been bleating ever since then that they must have cheated to win that election because his vote was historically high, which it was. Biden won it only off the back of massive Democratic turnout, motivated by the clear and immediate misery of having had to put up with that loathsome orange shitstain being utterly inescapable every day for four years.
This time around the clear and immediate misery is the cost of living, which always hurts the incumbent regardless of whose policies address it better, because low-information voters. There's also been a resurgence of the widespread perception that voting is kind of pointless because there's really not all that much difference between the two wings of the US Corporate Welfare Party, a perception driven partly by the full-throated support that both wings have been giving for keeping up the supply of murder weapons to the Palestinian extermination drive, and partly by people simply having memory-holed the most miserable aspects of life under TFG.
TFG's deliberately and comprehensively deluded support base never went away, remaining about as potent and motivated as they were in 2020. Difference this time around is that TFG is now a far more abstract threat than he was then, a threat that the Democrats have simply not been able to fire up enough sane voters to counter.
That's how it looks from Australia, anyway.
posted by flabdablet at 9:15 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
The upside is that 2025-26 won't have any major budget battles like a continued split government arrangement would have seen.
We certainly live in 'interesting times' now, economically. USD vs the yen's up to ¥155, good for my drift away plan this decade.
posted by torokunai at 9:16 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
We certainly live in 'interesting times' now, economically. USD vs the yen's up to ¥155, good for my drift away plan this decade.
posted by torokunai at 9:16 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
I was thinking of the American Poop Onions that were in the news recently. With the FDA gone they'll be back, along with the Poop Lettuce and a myriad of other unsafe food produce to avoid.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:16 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:16 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Both candidates promised to "Fix the economy". Harris offered a plan. Trump offered tariffs and empty promises. The average American, steeped in hundreds of years of racism, misogyny and an unwavering Christian belief that Men (particularly White Men) Are Naturally Superior in Every Way at Everything, looked at their choices and pulled the lever for the White Guy.
posted by pjsky at 9:17 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 9:17 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
Plus, the right wing is the naturally superior economic manager, as everybody knows.
(narrator voice: they're not)
posted by flabdablet at 9:18 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
(narrator voice: they're not)
posted by flabdablet at 9:18 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
So my BiL is a Trump supporter. His youngest daughter is gay. He doesn't accept that she's gay, it's "just a phase."
@Kitteh this hits hard coz a great mate of mine killed himself aged 18 when his family couldn't deal with him coming out.
Took years of alcohol and substance abuse to deal with it and still sad minus those other things making it worse.
These days with Lil Ubu now a low teen, "If they dare touch a hair on your head I'll fight to the last breath" and whatever he chooses in any.direction it's always gonna be nothing but 100% love and support.
Because that's what being a parent should be about.
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:19 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
@Kitteh this hits hard coz a great mate of mine killed himself aged 18 when his family couldn't deal with him coming out.
Took years of alcohol and substance abuse to deal with it and still sad minus those other things making it worse.
These days with Lil Ubu now a low teen, "If they dare touch a hair on your head I'll fight to the last breath" and whatever he chooses in any.direction it's always gonna be nothing but 100% love and support.
Because that's what being a parent should be about.
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:19 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Part of me wants to lash out and sever all my connections to every Trump voter, saying terrrrrrrible things to them on the way out.
Regrettably, you'll probably have lots of opportunities later to give them a big ol' "What the fuck did you think was going to happen?"
Why are Americans such wusses regarding inflation?
It seemed to be concentrated in everyday necessities like rent and groceries, and it was the most people in the US had seen since the 1980s. For anyone under 60 or so, it was an entirely new thing.
I teach at a state university, so I basically just get the universal COLAs and maybe some utter-pittance (like $250, not added to base) of a performance "raise" occasionally and the only way I can get something you might recognize as a "raise" is if I can credibly threaten to entirely uproot my life and move somewhere else. There are a lot of people in similar positions, just chugging along, earning COLAs and maybe step increases.
For me, a couple of years of bad inflation set me back decades. In real dollars, I earned more in 2000 than I do now. Looks like this year I might improve a little bit. Let's hope the next contract is better.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:23 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Regrettably, you'll probably have lots of opportunities later to give them a big ol' "What the fuck did you think was going to happen?"
Why are Americans such wusses regarding inflation?
It seemed to be concentrated in everyday necessities like rent and groceries, and it was the most people in the US had seen since the 1980s. For anyone under 60 or so, it was an entirely new thing.
I teach at a state university, so I basically just get the universal COLAs and maybe some utter-pittance (like $250, not added to base) of a performance "raise" occasionally and the only way I can get something you might recognize as a "raise" is if I can credibly threaten to entirely uproot my life and move somewhere else. There are a lot of people in similar positions, just chugging along, earning COLAs and maybe step increases.
For me, a couple of years of bad inflation set me back decades. In real dollars, I earned more in 2000 than I do now. Looks like this year I might improve a little bit. Let's hope the next contract is better.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:23 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
If you're in need of something cathartic:
OI POLLOI - DONALD TRUMP FUCK YOU
posted by PHINC at 9:23 AM on November 6
OI POLLOI - DONALD TRUMP FUCK YOU
posted by PHINC at 9:23 AM on November 6
Both candidates promised to "Fix the economy". Harris offered a plan. Trump offered tariffs and empty promises. The average American, steeped in hundreds of years of racism, misogyny and an unwavering Christian belief that Men (particularly White Men) Are Naturally Superior in Every Way at Everything, looked at their choices and pulled the lever for the White Guy.
This totally explains why dems didnt turnout and Trump did better with black and latino men than expected.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:24 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
This totally explains why dems didnt turnout and Trump did better with black and latino men than expected.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:24 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
brook horse: There’s been talk of the stereotypical single guy who listens to Joe Rogan and hates women. While that may be part of it, in exit polls unmarried men went for Harris 49 to 47. Married men went for Trump 59 to 39. And Trump’s support was highest in the $30k-$100k income brackets (lower and higher incomes both went for Harris by several points). Which likely includes a lot of married Black and Latino men. I don’t know if that’s the full picture, but I’m betting it’s part of it.
Given the exit poll numbers for White born-again/Evangelicals, I suspect it might also be useful to look in that direction. If there's one opinion-making group that has been pushing both marriage and Trump, it's White Evangelical church pastors.
Stay in your marriage no matter what; submit to the authority of your husband; have babies; feel the blessing of the Lord on your life.
posted by clawsoon at 9:26 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Given the exit poll numbers for White born-again/Evangelicals, I suspect it might also be useful to look in that direction. If there's one opinion-making group that has been pushing both marriage and Trump, it's White Evangelical church pastors.
Stay in your marriage no matter what; submit to the authority of your husband; have babies; feel the blessing of the Lord on your life.
posted by clawsoon at 9:26 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
...and that seems weird to me. Not conclusive, but weird. No, once all the votes are in and etc., and there's a clearer sense of how things break down, I'll probably be convinced - but right now, at this half-baked point... it smells off.
Genuinely: why? Harris isn't a popular or beloved figure. She didn't even win her place as candidate via election. She was the candidate due to circumstances scrambling to put together some kind of campaign in just five months. Why would you expect more enthusiasm for her than Biden who, despite what many here might think, does have genuine love and support among groups of Dem voters, especially older ones.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:26 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Genuinely: why? Harris isn't a popular or beloved figure. She didn't even win her place as candidate via election. She was the candidate due to circumstances scrambling to put together some kind of campaign in just five months. Why would you expect more enthusiasm for her than Biden who, despite what many here might think, does have genuine love and support among groups of Dem voters, especially older ones.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:26 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
It does seem "off" that people would go 57% for abortion rights in Florida but vote overwhelmingly for Trump, same with Missouri, etc. But here's the thing: people are dumb as shit. (But the bomb threats in Atlanta were sus as hell, "russian" origin sounds like exactly how you'd disguise such a thing)
posted by dis_integration at 9:29 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 9:29 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
For me, a couple of years of bad inflation set me back decades. In real dollars, I earned more in 2000 than I do now. Looks like this year I might improve a little bit. Let's hope the next contract is better.
I actually worked this out last year, and when you adjust for inflation, I am making barely more than I was twenty years ago when I started at my institution as an entry-level secretary. It really knocked me back - it's not like I'm the boss of the whole place now or anything, but I have a much harder job in an entirely different job class which requires much more knowledge, judgement and diligence. At this point, I might as well have stayed in one of the light-duty secretarial jobs where I could look at the internet half the day in the slow season. Granted, I like having a more interesting and responsible job and the internet sucks now, but still. (Those were specific light-duty secretary jobs - there are plenty of entry level secretarial jobs that are very busy, difficult and undercompensated. It's just that mine were not like that.)
posted by Frowner at 9:30 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
I actually worked this out last year, and when you adjust for inflation, I am making barely more than I was twenty years ago when I started at my institution as an entry-level secretary. It really knocked me back - it's not like I'm the boss of the whole place now or anything, but I have a much harder job in an entirely different job class which requires much more knowledge, judgement and diligence. At this point, I might as well have stayed in one of the light-duty secretarial jobs where I could look at the internet half the day in the slow season. Granted, I like having a more interesting and responsible job and the internet sucks now, but still. (Those were specific light-duty secretary jobs - there are plenty of entry level secretarial jobs that are very busy, difficult and undercompensated. It's just that mine were not like that.)
posted by Frowner at 9:30 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
This totally explains why dems didnt turnout and Trump did better with black and latino men than expected.
It has to be vast structural forces beyond anyone's control, literally anything other than considering that the Dems may have made mistakes or failed to connect with voters.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:33 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
It has to be vast structural forces beyond anyone's control, literally anything other than considering that the Dems may have made mistakes or failed to connect with voters.
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:33 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I 100% understand and realize the gender of the candidate was not the deciding factor. It was probably not in the top three.
But people are stupid as hell. I wonder if we may wait decades before another woman gets the Democratic nomination.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:33 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
But people are stupid as hell. I wonder if we may wait decades before another woman gets the Democratic nomination.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:33 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
If The Oldest Man in The World had done as he said and been a one-term President, there would have been primaries. If there had been primaries, I suspect very few people on here would have supported Harris in a crowded field. That would have been congruent with the selectorate who, like the last time, would have soundly rejected her. She has never been popular - she's part of the Democratic machine which is very different. When she stood to be AG in California, she barely scraped in. Biden chose her, not because she was a good candidate for President but because she wouldn't cause any bother and perform the part expected of a dutiful running mate, part of the machine. (That she was a relatively young black woman was, of course a benefit to a man so old, some of his previous stances and statements on race had become infra dig. Turns out tokenism is good for Veeps but not for keeps.)
The truth is that Harris was a bad candidate but a good politico, a machine part and machine operator. But not a good candidate, that had not changed. When Biden started being publicly senile, the Democratic machine did what it does best: smoothly, seamlessly and without any bothersome democracy, overthrew and replaced him. (Until then, significant parts of the machine knew Biden couldn't serve a full second term, assuming they could hide his frailty so he won. Those people did nothing. Democratic by name, if not by nature.) Then they stood and shouted, "democracy is on the line, you have no option but to vote for this previously unpopular person! No choice!"
She was one of the least popular Veeps in living memory - actively disliked. It didn't help that she squandered it by doing nothing of any consequence whatsoever. That's what made the mass amnesia so damn weird. "Biden has gone, here is Harris and you already like her so this should be easy." She doesn't owe you policies, you owe her your gratitude and vote.
There are other reasons for this shit show, of course, but any analysis that doesn't accept that Harris was A Bad Candidate is missing something.
posted by deeker at 9:33 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
The truth is that Harris was a bad candidate but a good politico, a machine part and machine operator. But not a good candidate, that had not changed. When Biden started being publicly senile, the Democratic machine did what it does best: smoothly, seamlessly and without any bothersome democracy, overthrew and replaced him. (Until then, significant parts of the machine knew Biden couldn't serve a full second term, assuming they could hide his frailty so he won. Those people did nothing. Democratic by name, if not by nature.) Then they stood and shouted, "democracy is on the line, you have no option but to vote for this previously unpopular person! No choice!"
She was one of the least popular Veeps in living memory - actively disliked. It didn't help that she squandered it by doing nothing of any consequence whatsoever. That's what made the mass amnesia so damn weird. "Biden has gone, here is Harris and you already like her so this should be easy." She doesn't owe you policies, you owe her your gratitude and vote.
There are other reasons for this shit show, of course, but any analysis that doesn't accept that Harris was A Bad Candidate is missing something.
posted by deeker at 9:33 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
The Guardian's analysis makes it clear it was a base+ election and Trump brought out his base (lower socio-economic rural conservatives) and increased his margins there. Harris's margins in urban areas weren't able to keep up and perhaps most disappointing it looks like suburbs and exurbs shifted rightwards.
I was a little surprised by the shift towards seen among college graduates but I wonder how much of that is a) tied to Biden being unable to actually deliver widespread student loan relief and b) layoffs related to tech downsizing and RTO initatives and c) increasing angst about how AI might disrupt some fields or if it really just came down to "milk and eggs too expensive" like it seems to have been for so many others. I guess pocketbook issues dominated regardless of how much you care about reproductive rights, environment, democracy, etc. Unfortunately if the aforementioned concerns about student loans, layoffs, ai disruption actually drove the shift I don't think any of those will be solved the other team's proposals.
It just seems like voters in general just didn't seem to think pushing forward with the Biden administration's policies under a Harris administration was something that would benefit them. So despite Biden handling the economy post-covid better than virtually every other country it really came down to a what are you going to do for me now.
Politics is transactional and the reality as much as we want to be mad at it is that the snakeoil Trump was selling was more appealling or at minimum it represented change from the status quo.
It doesn't really matter that he won't be able to achieve his promises because people already bought and paid for what he was selling them.
posted by vuron at 9:34 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I was a little surprised by the shift towards seen among college graduates but I wonder how much of that is a) tied to Biden being unable to actually deliver widespread student loan relief and b) layoffs related to tech downsizing and RTO initatives and c) increasing angst about how AI might disrupt some fields or if it really just came down to "milk and eggs too expensive" like it seems to have been for so many others. I guess pocketbook issues dominated regardless of how much you care about reproductive rights, environment, democracy, etc. Unfortunately if the aforementioned concerns about student loans, layoffs, ai disruption actually drove the shift I don't think any of those will be solved the other team's proposals.
It just seems like voters in general just didn't seem to think pushing forward with the Biden administration's policies under a Harris administration was something that would benefit them. So despite Biden handling the economy post-covid better than virtually every other country it really came down to a what are you going to do for me now.
Politics is transactional and the reality as much as we want to be mad at it is that the snakeoil Trump was selling was more appealling or at minimum it represented change from the status quo.
It doesn't really matter that he won't be able to achieve his promises because people already bought and paid for what he was selling them.
posted by vuron at 9:34 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
It does seem "off" that people would go 57% for abortion rights in Florida but vote overwhelmingly for Trump, same with Missouri, etc.
I would speculate that a lot of young conservative people are also sexually active, or would very much like to be. Look, I grew up around Catholics, people pick and choose which dogmas apply to them.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:36 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I would speculate that a lot of young conservative people are also sexually active, or would very much like to be. Look, I grew up around Catholics, people pick and choose which dogmas apply to them.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:36 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
As anomalous as the U.S. is for never having a woman head of state, I suspect it will be less of a factor as- like I said- oppression gets real intersectional. Maybe the monkey paw will bring us Nikki Haley at best, Kimberly Guilfoyle at worst, in an election or two.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:39 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 9:39 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
...the stereotypical single guy who listens to Joe Rogan and hates women.
My son just graduated from college, and this is his cohort.
Last night he was flat-out amazed: the guys in his friends group who had graduated college and were working a job, with their eyes on the future, voted harris/Walz; the guys with no degree yet, working at hourly jobs, all went for Trump.
This morning one of them texted the group, crowing, "Looking forward to untaxed overtime!" I couldn't believe it: with no regulatory bodies left, that kid will lose half his hours to someone brand new, and neither of them will ever see any overtime pay -- or even the number of hours they used to work.
posted by wenestvedt at 9:39 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
My son just graduated from college, and this is his cohort.
Last night he was flat-out amazed: the guys in his friends group who had graduated college and were working a job, with their eyes on the future, voted harris/Walz; the guys with no degree yet, working at hourly jobs, all went for Trump.
This morning one of them texted the group, crowing, "Looking forward to untaxed overtime!" I couldn't believe it: with no regulatory bodies left, that kid will lose half his hours to someone brand new, and neither of them will ever see any overtime pay -- or even the number of hours they used to work.
posted by wenestvedt at 9:39 AM on November 6 [34 favorites]
Biden's admin still has some tricks up its sleeve. They'll take the T key off all the WH keyboards before they exit.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:39 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:39 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
She was one of the least popular Veeps in living memory - actively disliked. It didn't help that she squandered it by doing nothing of any consequence whatsoever. That's what made the mass amnesia so damn weird. "Biden has gone, here is Harris and you already like her so this should be easy." She doesn't owe you policies, you owe her your gratitude and vote.
There are other reasons for this shit show, of course, but any analysis that doesn't accept that Harris was A Bad Candidate is missing something.
Harris was elected, there's no way the dems could have had a primary in August to pick a new candidate. By that time it was a done deal. If biden stepped down in 2022 it would have been enough time.
Biden's legacy will be absolute shit.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:40 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
There are other reasons for this shit show, of course, but any analysis that doesn't accept that Harris was A Bad Candidate is missing something.
Harris was elected, there's no way the dems could have had a primary in August to pick a new candidate. By that time it was a done deal. If biden stepped down in 2022 it would have been enough time.
Biden's legacy will be absolute shit.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:40 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
I would speculate that a lot of young conservative people are also sexually active, or would very much like to be. Look, I grew up around Catholics, people pick and choose which dogmas apply to them.
I think this is right. Despite what they might say in public, does a young conservative woman who grew up with the option of abortion her whole life really want it gone? Or like you hear some rumblings now about going after contraceptives. However they might playact online, does a young guy in rural red Alabama really not want access to condoms?
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:41 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I think this is right. Despite what they might say in public, does a young conservative woman who grew up with the option of abortion her whole life really want it gone? Or like you hear some rumblings now about going after contraceptives. However they might playact online, does a young guy in rural red Alabama really not want access to condoms?
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:41 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I don't think I'll ever forgive the Dem leadership for not forcing Biden to keep his one-term promise.
posted by bashos_frog at 9:43 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by bashos_frog at 9:43 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I actually worked this out last year, and when you adjust for inflation, I am making barely more than I was twenty years ago when I started at my institution as an entry-level secretary.
Yep, that's exactly how Reagan/Thatcher level neoliberal economics have screwed normal people, removing the ability for workers to organise and demand better conditions.
But no, let's blame "Chainah" or trans people or immigunts.
("Even when it was the bears I knew it was the immigunts. Ther tekin ur dergs and er cats!")
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:43 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Yep, that's exactly how Reagan/Thatcher level neoliberal economics have screwed normal people, removing the ability for workers to organise and demand better conditions.
But no, let's blame "Chainah" or trans people or immigunts.
("Even when it was the bears I knew it was the immigunts. Ther tekin ur dergs and er cats!")
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:43 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Biden's legacy will be absolute shit.
Eh, while I agree that his legacy will likely be a mention in history, is it possible he could get wild with the next few months and pack the court?
posted by furnace.heart at 9:44 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Eh, while I agree that his legacy will likely be a mention in history, is it possible he could get wild with the next few months and pack the court?
posted by furnace.heart at 9:44 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Is it possible? Yes. Will he do it? I don't know...how do the donors feel about it?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:46 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:46 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Biden should step down immediately so Harris can be president.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:46 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:46 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
MisantropicPainforest I wish I could favorite that comment one million times. Thank you
posted by pjsky at 9:48 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 9:48 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I know the answer is "nothing," but what's going to happen with Merchan's sentencing on the 26th?
posted by mittens at 9:48 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by mittens at 9:48 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
>Why are Americans such wusses regarding inflation?
Along with attempts at student loan forgiveness, It's the one bad thing that happened in Biden's term, so that's the main GOP made an issue out of. As somebody said above, it was a displacement tactic.
It's not just that. At the bottom of the economy, inflation hurts right now. We are having to cut out groceries and do without medical care that we could have managed, even back in 2020. Life is tangibly worse and less secure.
It's no reason to vote for Trump, but it isn't trivial.
I loathe Ardent Progressives and Jill Putin voters as much as anyone, and this election wasn't their fault.
As one of the former, I hate to be rolled in with the latter, but thanks for this. One of the things I was really worried was going to happen was a repeat of the 2016 recriminations that have gone on pretty much ever since. But several folks on here have made an effort to point out the actuality when it conflicts with that narrative. And it is appreciated.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:49 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Along with attempts at student loan forgiveness, It's the one bad thing that happened in Biden's term, so that's the main GOP made an issue out of. As somebody said above, it was a displacement tactic.
It's not just that. At the bottom of the economy, inflation hurts right now. We are having to cut out groceries and do without medical care that we could have managed, even back in 2020. Life is tangibly worse and less secure.
It's no reason to vote for Trump, but it isn't trivial.
I loathe Ardent Progressives and Jill Putin voters as much as anyone, and this election wasn't their fault.
As one of the former, I hate to be rolled in with the latter, but thanks for this. One of the things I was really worried was going to happen was a repeat of the 2016 recriminations that have gone on pretty much ever since. But several folks on here have made an effort to point out the actuality when it conflicts with that narrative. And it is appreciated.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:49 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
lol Harris lost by tens of millions (as of now) votes nearly every where and who is to blame? Pro Palestinian youths. Gotta love it.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:56 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:56 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
(the New Zealand subreddit changed its pinned post to a link to the Immigration NZ FAQ if you wondered. So it begins.)
posted by ngaiotonga at 9:58 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by ngaiotonga at 9:58 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
lol Harris lost by tens of millions (as of now) votes nearly every where and who is to blame? Pro Palestinian youths. Gotta love it.
I mean, yeah, according to their own weirdly triumphal posting.
(Not the reality, but still.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:58 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
I mean, yeah, according to their own weirdly triumphal posting.
(Not the reality, but still.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:58 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Oh we’re not using data we’re just looking at posting to see what happened?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:59 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:59 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Willie Nelson released this cover of the Beck song "Lost Cause" (which I had in heavy rotation in the wake of the 2004 election) on the same day he endorsed Harris. He kind of ominously changed the pronouns in the song to suggest that "she's a lost cause" which I found incredibly unnerving at the time, and rather precient today.
posted by St. Oops at 10:00 AM on November 6
posted by St. Oops at 10:00 AM on November 6
It's the day after and this is a reaction thread, discussing other reactions. Stop being snide.
(In case you missed it in your hurry, I'm agreeing with you on their real impact.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:00 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
(In case you missed it in your hurry, I'm agreeing with you on their real impact.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:00 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
The 2024 POTUS election was decided more or less entirely by low information voters who were unhappy with the economy and wanted to see a leadership change in parties.
Arguing about the quality of candidates, positions, tactics, etc. is pointless.
Cereal and gas were expensive. Rent was high. Stupid people opted to try a different party, figuring that might help.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:01 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
Arguing about the quality of candidates, positions, tactics, etc. is pointless.
Cereal and gas were expensive. Rent was high. Stupid people opted to try a different party, figuring that might help.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:01 AM on November 6 [33 favorites]
One of the things I was really worried was going to happen was a repeat of the 2016 recriminations that have gone on pretty much ever since.
Nope. Only insofar as Ardent Progressives stayed home because of Gaza, but y'all didn't vote for Stein and it's hard to prove that it was some kind of concerted action among APs to stay home rather than Team Harris' inability to answer the question of how they were solving high prices. Not that Trump did, or will. This one's on Americans Too Dumb To See The Threat That's Constantly Being Brought To Their Attention. And Jeebus.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Nope. Only insofar as Ardent Progressives stayed home because of Gaza, but y'all didn't vote for Stein and it's hard to prove that it was some kind of concerted action among APs to stay home rather than Team Harris' inability to answer the question of how they were solving high prices. Not that Trump did, or will. This one's on Americans Too Dumb To See The Threat That's Constantly Being Brought To Their Attention. And Jeebus.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:01 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Laughing Harris offered no plan for economic relief. Does she know what a loaf of bread costs?
posted by Czjewel at 10:01 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by Czjewel at 10:01 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Even higher up in the socioeconomic strata it's painful right now. Most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck even before Covid and very very few Americans have the ability to absorb the cost of a major medical emergency or unexpected job loss. A lot of Americans even some who have been in good paying careers have a lot of concerns right now. You see it alot in the tech industry where a lot of people in their late 40s and early 50s are experiencing layoffs and their professional networks aren't finding equivalent jobs. This people are burning through meager savings and nuking their 401ks just to pay their monthly bills.
I suspect some of these at-risk older but not retired college graduates hope that maybe firms will start hiring again now that their goal of putting their fingers on the scale for Trump has succeeded but it's unclear if that will materialize.
For retirees even those retirees with good nest eggs, long periods of higher inflation erode the value of that nest egg and in many cases they can't make up the difference because their money is locked away in low risk but also low return investment vehicles.
posted by vuron at 10:02 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I suspect some of these at-risk older but not retired college graduates hope that maybe firms will start hiring again now that their goal of putting their fingers on the scale for Trump has succeeded but it's unclear if that will materialize.
For retirees even those retirees with good nest eggs, long periods of higher inflation erode the value of that nest egg and in many cases they can't make up the difference because their money is locked away in low risk but also low return investment vehicles.
posted by vuron at 10:02 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I won't point the finger at anyone but those who pulled the lever for Trump. In a halfway decent world, "grab 'em by the pussy" would have been the end of his public life, let alone political career. That it wasn't is a damning indictment of the country and the Republican party specifically. Last week (way way too late, fuck you very much Michael Wolff, not that it would've mattered earlier) we heard Epstein, on tape, call Trump his closest friend. It was met with nothing but shrugs and millions voted for him anyway.
Rapist, convicted felon, clearly declining mental faculties, none of it mattered. And I don't buy "low information voters" unaware of any of that. They knew. They voted *for* him. For what? All of that was okay, but a trans girl playing high school soccer with her friends and classmates is beyond the pale? A brown person crossing the border trying to make a better life for their family is a bridge too far? A *woman* might be president? Do they think the president controls the price of gas and eggs? Do they think Trump's threatened tariffs will *lower* prices? All of the above? They claim family values, Christian values, but their actions, their vote, speaks louder. Nobody is to blame but them.
posted by Roommate at 10:03 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]
Rapist, convicted felon, clearly declining mental faculties, none of it mattered. And I don't buy "low information voters" unaware of any of that. They knew. They voted *for* him. For what? All of that was okay, but a trans girl playing high school soccer with her friends and classmates is beyond the pale? A brown person crossing the border trying to make a better life for their family is a bridge too far? A *woman* might be president? Do they think the president controls the price of gas and eggs? Do they think Trump's threatened tariffs will *lower* prices? All of the above? They claim family values, Christian values, but their actions, their vote, speaks louder. Nobody is to blame but them.
posted by Roommate at 10:03 AM on November 6 [46 favorites]
^^ I'm talking about people who stayed home, not people who pulled the lever for Trump, if it's me you're replying to. They suck worse, but we knew they would suck. It's the 12M people who stayed home I'm blaming.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:05 AM on November 6
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:05 AM on November 6
I want to weigh in on a bit of a side note
:
Re: The Florida abortion bill. Two things about it are true
1- It got a 57% yes vote
2 - It failed because the threshold in Florida is 60%
When we managed to get our constitutional amendment passed to protect abortion rights in Ohio, some of you may remember last effort to get the voters to approve, raising our threshold in Ohio to 60% as well.
That failed, And the only reason we have that amendment here in Ohio, it’s because the R’s failed to raise that threshold
They know exactly how much public support they have, and exactly how much they need.
As much as I want to take comfort in the idea that 57% of voters in Florida voted for the protection even while they voted for Trump, I can’t, because that 57% wasn’t enough, and those women still have no protections
I liked to comfort myself with the idea That these people are ignorant and cruel. That appears to be incorrect as well; They are focused, and capable, and cruel
I don’t mean to add to the gloom, but that 57% has been fucking with my head all morning
posted by das_2099 at 10:05 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
:
Re: The Florida abortion bill. Two things about it are true
1- It got a 57% yes vote
2 - It failed because the threshold in Florida is 60%
When we managed to get our constitutional amendment passed to protect abortion rights in Ohio, some of you may remember last effort to get the voters to approve, raising our threshold in Ohio to 60% as well.
That failed, And the only reason we have that amendment here in Ohio, it’s because the R’s failed to raise that threshold
They know exactly how much public support they have, and exactly how much they need.
As much as I want to take comfort in the idea that 57% of voters in Florida voted for the protection even while they voted for Trump, I can’t, because that 57% wasn’t enough, and those women still have no protections
I liked to comfort myself with the idea That these people are ignorant and cruel. That appears to be incorrect as well; They are focused, and capable, and cruel
I don’t mean to add to the gloom, but that 57% has been fucking with my head all morning
posted by das_2099 at 10:05 AM on November 6 [25 favorites]
Laughing Harris offered no plan for economic relief. Does she know what a loaf of bread costs?
Now apply that logic to the other candidate, but add "has he ever been to the store to buy a loaf in his life?"
Bonus points if you reference global inflation or the economic consequences of fiscal stimulus spending.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:06 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Now apply that logic to the other candidate, but add "has he ever been to the store to buy a loaf in his life?"
Bonus points if you reference global inflation or the economic consequences of fiscal stimulus spending.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:06 AM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Do they think the president controls the price of gas and eggs?
Yes, absolutely. There is no complexity to the answer: People genuinely believe the president controls these things. Recall the "I did that!" Biden stickers people were putting on gas pumps a few years ago.
posted by mittens at 10:06 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Yes, absolutely. There is no complexity to the answer: People genuinely believe the president controls these things. Recall the "I did that!" Biden stickers people were putting on gas pumps a few years ago.
posted by mittens at 10:06 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I loathe Ardent Progressives
The single aspect of politics that I have always found the most difficult to wrap my head around, and this applies to Australian and UK politics every bit as much as to the US, is the sheer intensity of the loathing that centrists will express, at the drop of a hat, for the only political faction actually devoted to making anything better.
As an ardent progressive, my own loathing is directed squarely at the face-eating leopards. It blows my mind how much work it takes to persuade any centrist that the measures that progressives consistently advocate for would leave everybody better off apart from FELs who have already eaten far more faces than is in any way reasonable.
Even if I can get them to agree that what's proposed is indeed fair and reasonable, centrists will fiercely, actively oppose it on the basis that the FELs would never let it happen.
It's just fucking weird. Does my head in.
posted by flabdablet at 10:06 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
The single aspect of politics that I have always found the most difficult to wrap my head around, and this applies to Australian and UK politics every bit as much as to the US, is the sheer intensity of the loathing that centrists will express, at the drop of a hat, for the only political faction actually devoted to making anything better.
As an ardent progressive, my own loathing is directed squarely at the face-eating leopards. It blows my mind how much work it takes to persuade any centrist that the measures that progressives consistently advocate for would leave everybody better off apart from FELs who have already eaten far more faces than is in any way reasonable.
Even if I can get them to agree that what's proposed is indeed fair and reasonable, centrists will fiercely, actively oppose it on the basis that the FELs would never let it happen.
It's just fucking weird. Does my head in.
posted by flabdablet at 10:06 AM on November 6 [42 favorites]
I mean, most voters are "low information" in every election and if there's anything Mefi has taught me, it's that being "high information" doesn't mean the information is any good. You can't win off messaging alone, especially as the incumbent party (and especially when the messaging is overwhelmingly bad). You have to govern, and in such a way that it improves people's lives.
posted by jy4m at 10:07 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 10:07 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I don't buy "low information voters"
When I said "low information voters" above, I was referring to poor understanding of how the economy works.
They don't understand that the economy they liked when Trump took office came from Obama's policies.
They don't understand that inflation hit the whole world after COVID and the war in Ukraine, not just us.
They do not understand that the president cannot control gas prices, and they have somehow not understood that the low prices during Trump's first term were because of a pandemic, not because of anything he did.
They don't understand that price gouging for food comes from corporate greed that is hardly going to be regulated away under a second Trump term.
They were very vocal that they voted R because of the economy, but they do not have even a basic understanding of how the economy works or how the two parties' policies are likely to affect it. They just want to try the other thing because they're unhappy at the moment.
Low info is a polite way of saying "stupid fucks" in this case.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:08 AM on November 6 [59 favorites]
When I said "low information voters" above, I was referring to poor understanding of how the economy works.
They don't understand that the economy they liked when Trump took office came from Obama's policies.
They don't understand that inflation hit the whole world after COVID and the war in Ukraine, not just us.
They do not understand that the president cannot control gas prices, and they have somehow not understood that the low prices during Trump's first term were because of a pandemic, not because of anything he did.
They don't understand that price gouging for food comes from corporate greed that is hardly going to be regulated away under a second Trump term.
They were very vocal that they voted R because of the economy, but they do not have even a basic understanding of how the economy works or how the two parties' policies are likely to affect it. They just want to try the other thing because they're unhappy at the moment.
Low info is a polite way of saying "stupid fucks" in this case.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:08 AM on November 6 [59 favorites]
What if the simplest explanation is true, that like many posters have said, people are just dumb and racist and sexist? We are just an ugly country and that is morally bankrupt.
posted by ichomp at 10:08 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 10:08 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
Yes, absolutely. There is no complexity to the answer
Doesn't change the fact that they affirmatively chose Donald Trump, despite *waves at everything*. Not once. Not twice. Three times, three successive elections. He was Their Guy. All In. It wasn't an "I'm not a fan of Kamala but she's the only option" situation.
posted by Roommate at 10:10 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Doesn't change the fact that they affirmatively chose Donald Trump, despite *waves at everything*. Not once. Not twice. Three times, three successive elections. He was Their Guy. All In. It wasn't an "I'm not a fan of Kamala but she's the only option" situation.
posted by Roommate at 10:10 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
We are just an ugly country and that is morally bankrupt.
To be fair, only most of you.
To be extra fair, only most of every country in 2024.
posted by flabdablet at 10:12 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
To be fair, only most of you.
To be extra fair, only most of every country in 2024.
posted by flabdablet at 10:12 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
It does seem "off" that people would go 57% for abortion rights in Florida but vote overwhelmingly for Trump, same with Missouri, etc.
This is "the only moral abortion is MY abortion" at work. Middle and upper class white people want to be sure they and their immediate friends and family can get an abortion if they really need one, because they're the good people. Voting Trump makes sure that the sluts and dark-skinned scary people won't get it, because they're the Bad People.
posted by soundguy99 at 10:12 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
This is "the only moral abortion is MY abortion" at work. Middle and upper class white people want to be sure they and their immediate friends and family can get an abortion if they really need one, because they're the good people. Voting Trump makes sure that the sluts and dark-skinned scary people won't get it, because they're the Bad People.
posted by soundguy99 at 10:12 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
the loathing that centrists will express, at the drop of a hat, for the only political faction actually devoted to making anything better
The instant you use the word "centrist", I entirely stop taking you seriously. I'm a fucking communist, for one thing. And you AREN'T devoted to making anything better. If you were devoted to making anything better, you'd be staunch allies of the Dems, to the extent where they took you seriously and moved things in your direction, and at any rate you'd show up and not let the Republicans make things worse. But what so very very very many of you are clearly devoted to is making the perfect the enemy of the good, and making anyone just a hair to your right the real enemy, much worse than the reactionaries. The Dems don't trust you because you'll use any excuse to undermine the coalition, you constantly bring up the most absurdly unelectable people as potential candidates, and you do all of this while constantly preening in a mirror as to how you're the "only" people making things better. Your actions speak far louder than your words. Good day, sir/ma'am/etc.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:14 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
The instant you use the word "centrist", I entirely stop taking you seriously. I'm a fucking communist, for one thing. And you AREN'T devoted to making anything better. If you were devoted to making anything better, you'd be staunch allies of the Dems, to the extent where they took you seriously and moved things in your direction, and at any rate you'd show up and not let the Republicans make things worse. But what so very very very many of you are clearly devoted to is making the perfect the enemy of the good, and making anyone just a hair to your right the real enemy, much worse than the reactionaries. The Dems don't trust you because you'll use any excuse to undermine the coalition, you constantly bring up the most absurdly unelectable people as potential candidates, and you do all of this while constantly preening in a mirror as to how you're the "only" people making things better. Your actions speak far louder than your words. Good day, sir/ma'am/etc.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:14 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
For the record, I voted for Kamala Harris, and I blame Kamala Harris for not getting elected. I don't blame people who didn't vote for her. That's silly, and it's also counter-productive, because the goal shouldn't be finding someone to blame for a loss, but ensuring that a loss doesn't happen again. Obviously, the democrats missed the fucking memo on that one...presuming that their goal is to elect people to office. If the goal is to keep party members earning donor money, with the occasional victory a nice but not really necessary bonus feature, then obviously what matters most is that the party remain "ideologically pure" (i.e., right of center).
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:14 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:14 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Unfair, flabbo.
We elected Abbott, Turnbull & Morrison, and Dutton is next.
Glass houses.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:15 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
We elected Abbott, Turnbull & Morrison, and Dutton is next.
Glass houses.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:15 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Yes, they 100% convinced the President can somehow reduce the cost of consumer goods and if they can't it must be because they were sabotaged. Obviously graffiti, potholes, taxes, etc any problem you have with government should be something a good President would solve....
The President is Santa Claus, you ask him for the goodies you want and if he/she doesn't give them to you you get mad and try out the other Santa Claus. Rinse and repeat, ad naseum
posted by vuron at 10:15 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
The President is Santa Claus, you ask him for the goodies you want and if he/she doesn't give them to you you get mad and try out the other Santa Claus. Rinse and repeat, ad naseum
posted by vuron at 10:15 AM on November 6 [16 favorites]
This morning one of them texted the group, crowing, "Looking forward to untaxed overtime!" I couldn't believe it: with no regulatory bodies left, that kid will lose half his hours to someone brand new, and neither of them will ever see any overtime pay -- or even the number of hours they used to work.
I wonder how many more times I'm going to type "Lochner" in the next four years. Or, forty. Get ready for the revival of 'freedom of contract' and 'economic substantive due process' as a funhouse mirror 14th Amendment right.
And similarly twisted applications of the commerce clause to strip rather than expand rights. The only penumbra remaining will be the one that sends you to the shadow realm.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:15 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I wonder how many more times I'm going to type "Lochner" in the next four years. Or, forty. Get ready for the revival of 'freedom of contract' and 'economic substantive due process' as a funhouse mirror 14th Amendment right.
And similarly twisted applications of the commerce clause to strip rather than expand rights. The only penumbra remaining will be the one that sends you to the shadow realm.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:15 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
For the record, I voted for Kamala Harris, and I blame Kamala Harris for not getting elected.
She was in an incredibly tough spot---I really don't think theres much she could have done post midway through 2024, to do anything about it.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:16 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
She was in an incredibly tough spot---I really don't think theres much she could have done post midway through 2024, to do anything about it.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:16 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Unfair, flabbo.
I expect you missed my against-the-guidelines last-minute edit.
posted by flabdablet at 10:17 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I expect you missed my against-the-guidelines last-minute edit.
posted by flabdablet at 10:17 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
this isn't some Kobayashi Maru bullshit where the "test is to see how you fail" this is a third of a billion people who are going to have measurably worse quality of life because roughly half of them would rather everyone suffer than someone who is not them; not male, not white, not cis, not middle class, might get something they don't get.
posted by seanmpuckett at 10:18 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 10:18 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
There's some low information voters right here, considering Harris absolutely knows how much bread costs and Bringing Down the Cost of Groceries was literally a section of policy plans published on her own campaign website
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:19 AM on November 6 [47 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:19 AM on November 6 [47 favorites]
One of the things I think us as progressives have not put enough emphasis on is that as we have worked to free women from the patriarchy, we have not done as much to remove the expectation that men be providers of the household. Women are more free to also provide for themselves, but we have very little concept of a man who can’t provide for his family. A stay at home wife, even long after children have left the home, is unremarkable. A stay at home husband whether he’s caring for children or not, is still largely unthinkable.
You raise a good point, brook horse. And I wonder how much of it comes down the emasculation of men in general. I grew up in a feminist household and area, where there was a lot of "men are bad for liking sports." My loved one was raised by a lesbian feminist who constantly told him that men were pigs, and he reacted by listening to a lot of Howard Stern before dying of an overdose at age 29. My white male priest friend, after leaving one church, complained that there were "no jobs for white male priests." I wonder of some of this *waves hands* is just an overreaction to this previous overreaction?
The instant you use the word "centrist", I entirely stop taking you seriously.
I am a centrist about feminism, for this reason and others. I am also a centrist about other issues, like the fact that homeless people shouldn't poop on public sidewalks. But I should be taken seriously.
posted by Melismata at 10:19 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
You raise a good point, brook horse. And I wonder how much of it comes down the emasculation of men in general. I grew up in a feminist household and area, where there was a lot of "men are bad for liking sports." My loved one was raised by a lesbian feminist who constantly told him that men were pigs, and he reacted by listening to a lot of Howard Stern before dying of an overdose at age 29. My white male priest friend, after leaving one church, complained that there were "no jobs for white male priests." I wonder of some of this *waves hands* is just an overreaction to this previous overreaction?
The instant you use the word "centrist", I entirely stop taking you seriously.
I am a centrist about feminism, for this reason and others. I am also a centrist about other issues, like the fact that homeless people shouldn't poop on public sidewalks. But I should be taken seriously.
posted by Melismata at 10:19 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I don't blame people who didn't vote for her. That's silly, and it's also counter-productive
I would disagree on the grounds that it is a critical step in accepting what has happened to understand that we are not horrified because of a candidate failing. We are not horrified by a campaign going sideways. We are not even horrified because the media did a number on this election.
We are not even horrified at simply an election result.
We are horrified at Americans. AT AMERICA.
This is what America is. And it's horrifying.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:20 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
I would disagree on the grounds that it is a critical step in accepting what has happened to understand that we are not horrified because of a candidate failing. We are not horrified by a campaign going sideways. We are not even horrified because the media did a number on this election.
We are not even horrified at simply an election result.
We are horrified at Americans. AT AMERICA.
This is what America is. And it's horrifying.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:20 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
^^ Sorry Melismata, I should have said, the instant you use the word "centrist" at me as if it were some kind of insult. Saying it about yourself in that manner doesn't make me stop taking you seriously.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:22 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 10:22 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
the sheer intensity of the loathing that centrists will express, at the drop of a hat, for the only political faction actually devoted to making anything better.
Most of my personal, irl experience with "ardent progressives" is that they're far more dedicated to telling other people how whatever they're doing is not enough than they are to promoting and encouraging actual, achievable change. That's borne out literally by your own comment.
I'd much rather be a mainstream Dem who works to move the needle by inches than be a so called "leftist" who spends a lot of time telling other people how they're not doing enough.
Anyway, Harris lost not because of her campaign or her policies, but because a huge portion of the electorate is racist, homophobic, anti-Semitic, and also doesn't want to vote for a woman for president. And also the price of groceries is in fact too high. That's it. Its not that deep.
posted by anastasiav at 10:23 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
Most of my personal, irl experience with "ardent progressives" is that they're far more dedicated to telling other people how whatever they're doing is not enough than they are to promoting and encouraging actual, achievable change. That's borne out literally by your own comment.
I'd much rather be a mainstream Dem who works to move the needle by inches than be a so called "leftist" who spends a lot of time telling other people how they're not doing enough.
Anyway, Harris lost not because of her campaign or her policies, but because a huge portion of the electorate is racist, homophobic, anti-Semitic, and also doesn't want to vote for a woman for president. And also the price of groceries is in fact too high. That's it. Its not that deep.
posted by anastasiav at 10:23 AM on November 6 [17 favorites]
The ship has already hit an iceberg and gone down and y'all are using your breath to yell at each other. Neither of you had anything to do with the iceberg and we're floating together clinging to same debris.
Cut each other a break, maybe.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:28 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]
Cut each other a break, maybe.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:28 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]
roughly half of them would rather everyone suffer than someone who is not them
That's one read.
Another, and one I prefer, is that roughly half of them have no fucking clue how anything works and prefer being spoonfed easily digested pap by folksy hucksters who reinforce ignorance as virtuous to doing the work it takes to dispel it.
posted by flabdablet at 10:29 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
That's one read.
Another, and one I prefer, is that roughly half of them have no fucking clue how anything works and prefer being spoonfed easily digested pap by folksy hucksters who reinforce ignorance as virtuous to doing the work it takes to dispel it.
posted by flabdablet at 10:29 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Not sure I buy that Harris didn't do enough to win over Black and Latino men, because what exactly did Trump do to win them over?
Propaganda.
Initially, he paid Black and Latino people to stand behind him at rallies, and then a sort of contrarian narrative took on a life of its own, bolstered by macho posturing from podcasts, social media, and UFC-adjacent culture, and then all of a sudden he had genuine Black and Latino supporters.
At his rallies, he would vaguely meander into talking about how expensive things were, but didn't offer any actual policy solutions. He offered nothing but mugging for the camera.
Bullshit vibes won again.
posted by ishmael at 10:30 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Propaganda.
Initially, he paid Black and Latino people to stand behind him at rallies, and then a sort of contrarian narrative took on a life of its own, bolstered by macho posturing from podcasts, social media, and UFC-adjacent culture, and then all of a sudden he had genuine Black and Latino supporters.
At his rallies, he would vaguely meander into talking about how expensive things were, but didn't offer any actual policy solutions. He offered nothing but mugging for the camera.
Bullshit vibes won again.
posted by ishmael at 10:30 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
The Progressive Moment Is Over
"1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it."
From a political perspective, it's hard to argue with any of these (though I'd change "voters" to "swing voters"). Many progressives argue that if people just understood the issues better, they'd move to the left, but how's that been working so far? (Substantively, I agree to some extent with 1-3.)
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:30 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
"1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it."
From a political perspective, it's hard to argue with any of these (though I'd change "voters" to "swing voters"). Many progressives argue that if people just understood the issues better, they'd move to the left, but how's that been working so far? (Substantively, I agree to some extent with 1-3.)
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:30 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
What if the simplest explanation is true, that like many posters have said, people are just dumb and racist and sexist? We are just an ugly country and that is morally bankrupt.
Years ago I knew someone who had extricated themselves from a born-again Christian church that had co-opted a few concepts from sci-fi/fantasy to lure in young people. One of the precepts they told me about built off the concept of the 144,000 righteous mentioned in Revelations, saying that the Creator endows a soul to humans at conception, BUT that only a finite number of souls existed and were recycled through re-incarnation. But since the world population was growing exponentially, there was an ever-increasing number of humans being conceived and born with no souls in the queue, meaning that they were spiritual nulls. Once they were outnumbered by the ones with souls, but not anymore.
I think about that idea sometimes. What if I share my country with some people who've just been... nullified somehow? No capacity for reflection, no theory of mind, no ability to self-correct. Just straight-up philosophical zombies who mimic humanity when it suits them to do so. Did someone do it to them or is that just the way people are made now?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 10:30 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Years ago I knew someone who had extricated themselves from a born-again Christian church that had co-opted a few concepts from sci-fi/fantasy to lure in young people. One of the precepts they told me about built off the concept of the 144,000 righteous mentioned in Revelations, saying that the Creator endows a soul to humans at conception, BUT that only a finite number of souls existed and were recycled through re-incarnation. But since the world population was growing exponentially, there was an ever-increasing number of humans being conceived and born with no souls in the queue, meaning that they were spiritual nulls. Once they were outnumbered by the ones with souls, but not anymore.
I think about that idea sometimes. What if I share my country with some people who've just been... nullified somehow? No capacity for reflection, no theory of mind, no ability to self-correct. Just straight-up philosophical zombies who mimic humanity when it suits them to do so. Did someone do it to them or is that just the way people are made now?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 10:30 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Anyway, Harris lost not because of her campaign or her policies, but because a huge portion of the electorate is racist, homophobic, anti-Semitic
But if that's true, is there any path forward for American democracy?
posted by mittens at 10:31 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
But if that's true, is there any path forward for American democracy?
posted by mittens at 10:31 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Trump is really gonna get the full Scalia. Just a whole life of being a shitbag, unchecked, then dying peacefully at home while his family holds his hand.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:31 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:31 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I'm horrified that people voted for Donald Trump. I am not horrified that people did not vote for Kamala Harris. I am sad that people did not vote for Kamala Harris, because I think that Trump is so bad that anyone with a realistic chance of beating him should be voted for, without hesitation. But I can't find it in my heart to be upset that people were uninspired by Harris, or turned off, or even felt that her presidency could actively be a bad thing in their lives; I think her housing ideas would have furthered gentrification, which I consider a scourge worse than nearly anything in American life today, and I think her stance on Gaza would facilitate countless deaths. I just, genuinely, think that Donald Trump will somehow be worse.
But I think this is not a message that speaks to the electorate, and I'm not sure it even should be. The democrats should have done better. Biden should never have run for a second term, ever. There should have been a primary. The democrats should have actually allowed the primary to lead to a democratically selected candidate instead of fixing it like they did in 2020. Etc. There was a lot of room for improvement here.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:31 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
But I think this is not a message that speaks to the electorate, and I'm not sure it even should be. The democrats should have done better. Biden should never have run for a second term, ever. There should have been a primary. The democrats should have actually allowed the primary to lead to a democratically selected candidate instead of fixing it like they did in 2020. Etc. There was a lot of room for improvement here.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:31 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Can we blame Republicans for being awful, rather than blame the Democrat for not being perfect enough?
posted by meese at 10:32 AM on November 6 [53 favorites]
posted by meese at 10:32 AM on November 6 [53 favorites]
Most of my personal, irl experience with "ardent progressives" is that they're far more dedicated to telling other people how whatever they're doing is not enough than they are to promoting and encouraging actual, achievable change.
I don't know. This sounds to me a lot like the crap my vegetarian friend gets from people. It's like as soon as someone makes a difficult choice we haven't, we perceive them as being critical, even if all they have done is state their reasons for making their decision. I know a lot of leftists who do a lot of hard work to make the world better. It mostly isn't electoral work, for both practical and philosophical reasons, but most of them don't spend time criticizing people. They do spend timw trying to articulate why they think we can do better, because they care about making things better and think most other people want that, too.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:32 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I don't know. This sounds to me a lot like the crap my vegetarian friend gets from people. It's like as soon as someone makes a difficult choice we haven't, we perceive them as being critical, even if all they have done is state their reasons for making their decision. I know a lot of leftists who do a lot of hard work to make the world better. It mostly isn't electoral work, for both practical and philosophical reasons, but most of them don't spend time criticizing people. They do spend timw trying to articulate why they think we can do better, because they care about making things better and think most other people want that, too.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:32 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
lol Harris lost by tens of millions (as of now) voteslol, I am now begging people to stop spreading this misinformation. Harris is behind in the latest count by less than five million votes, and there are still millions of votes left to count in CA/CO/OR/WA.
posted by mbrubeck at 10:32 AM on November 6 [32 favorites]
Wait a minute, wait a minute, what a minute.
There was a progressive moment???
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:33 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
There was a progressive moment???
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:33 AM on November 6 [24 favorites]
"1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it."
what? these weren't part of Harris' platform and has nothign to do with the most imporant issue: inflation
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:34 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it."
what? these weren't part of Harris' platform and has nothign to do with the most imporant issue: inflation
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:34 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
They were very vocal that they voted R because of the economy, but they do not have even a basic understanding of how the economy works or how the two parties' policies are likely to affect it. They just want to try the other thing because they're unhappy at the moment.
Yeah, it's kinda dumb, but that's how voters have always been. The same thing is also how we got FDR and at the very least why Obama was elected easily in 08 instead of it being a knock-down drag-out fight.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:35 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Yeah, it's kinda dumb, but that's how voters have always been. The same thing is also how we got FDR and at the very least why Obama was elected easily in 08 instead of it being a knock-down drag-out fight.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:35 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
The Progressive Moment Is Over
Did you get this link via Asmongold's twitch chat?
Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Oh. Quelle something.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:36 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Did you get this link via Asmongold's twitch chat?
Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Oh. Quelle something.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:36 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Yeah, it's kinda dumb, but that's how voters have always been. The same thing is also how we got FDR and at the very least why Obama was elected easily in 08 instead of it being a knock-down drag-out fight.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of
Yep. If Trump had won reelection in 2020 we’d all be celebrating a Democratic win rn
posted by rhymedirective at 10:36 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of
Yep. If Trump had won reelection in 2020 we’d all be celebrating a Democratic win rn
posted by rhymedirective at 10:36 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Even higher up in the socioeconomic strata it's painful right now. Most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck even before Covid and very very few Americans have the ability to absorb the cost of a major medical emergency or unexpected job loss. A lot of Americans even some who have been in good paying careers have a lot of concerns right now. You see it alot in the tech industry where a lot of people in their late 40s and early 50s are experiencing layoffs and their professional networks aren't finding equivalent jobs. This people are burning through meager savings and nuking their 401ks just to pay their monthly bills.
I mean, my BiL was a Republican before Trump, but yeah his once cushy job ain't so cushy after COVID and somehow that's the Democrats' fault? I don't get it. But then I don't get spending beyond your means and then crying wolf about how broke the Dems make you without any actual proof.
posted by Kitteh at 10:36 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I mean, my BiL was a Republican before Trump, but yeah his once cushy job ain't so cushy after COVID and somehow that's the Democrats' fault? I don't get it. But then I don't get spending beyond your means and then crying wolf about how broke the Dems make you without any actual proof.
posted by Kitteh at 10:36 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Just a whole life of being a shitbag, unchecked, then dying peacefully at home while his family holds his hand.
I keep coming back to this cartoon, drawn for the Melbourne Age some years before Leunig milkshake ducked (milkshook duck?) himself as an anti-vaxxer.
posted by flabdablet at 10:39 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I keep coming back to this cartoon, drawn for the Melbourne Age some years before Leunig milkshake ducked (milkshook duck?) himself as an anti-vaxxer.
posted by flabdablet at 10:39 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
If there's one thing this thread makes clear, it's that we desperately need a major project to go out there and interview the people who voted for Trump, but aren't dedicated Republicans, to find out why they actually did so. I don't think this would be easy to really get to the bottom of people's motivations, so it would require a lot of talking. But it's clear that we don't really have more than a superficial, poll-based understanding of why people voted for him.
People can theorize all day, here and elsewhere, but it's clear that the Democrats, centrists, the left, whatever you want to call them — just don't understand why people vote for Trump.
posted by ssg at 10:39 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
People can theorize all day, here and elsewhere, but it's clear that the Democrats, centrists, the left, whatever you want to call them — just don't understand why people vote for Trump.
posted by ssg at 10:39 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
these weren't part of Harris' platform
No, but they were associated with the Left, and thus to Harris. Perhaps if she yelled from the mountaintops that homeless camps have to go, looters and shoplifters have to be thrown in jail, we have to crank up the oil production ... maybe? Probably not.
She's a Democrat; Democrats are soft on crime and illegal immigration. Everybody "knows" this.
posted by argybarg at 10:39 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
No, but they were associated with the Left, and thus to Harris. Perhaps if she yelled from the mountaintops that homeless camps have to go, looters and shoplifters have to be thrown in jail, we have to crank up the oil production ... maybe? Probably not.
She's a Democrat; Democrats are soft on crime and illegal immigration. Everybody "knows" this.
posted by argybarg at 10:39 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
>as a funhouse mirror 14th Amendment right.
just like they stopped the recount of unreliable mechanical ballots on equal protection grounds in 2000, and extended DC's handgun legalization ex-posterior decision nationwide in 2010. It's a magical amendment
posted by torokunai at 10:40 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
just like they stopped the recount of unreliable mechanical ballots on equal protection grounds in 2000, and extended DC's handgun legalization ex-posterior decision nationwide in 2010. It's a magical amendment
posted by torokunai at 10:40 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
No capacity for reflection, no theory of mind, no ability to self-correct. Just straight-up philosophical zombies who mimic humanity when it suits them to do so. Did someone do it to them or is that just the way people are made now?
This kind of thinking is no good. People have reasons for their actions and they have interior lives. Those reasons might be ill-informed, irrational, or immoral, but they are normal human motivations.
Deciding some people aren't real or don't really think or feel like we do is a big part of how we get people calling for mass deportations of "illegals" or deciding mass murder is acceptable as long as it happens to an other we feel has wronged us.
1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
If the only way to win is to appeal to fascists and burn the world down, fuck it. I'd rather die with my boots on.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:41 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
This kind of thinking is no good. People have reasons for their actions and they have interior lives. Those reasons might be ill-informed, irrational, or immoral, but they are normal human motivations.
Deciding some people aren't real or don't really think or feel like we do is a big part of how we get people calling for mass deportations of "illegals" or deciding mass murder is acceptable as long as it happens to an other we feel has wronged us.
1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
If the only way to win is to appeal to fascists and burn the world down, fuck it. I'd rather die with my boots on.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:41 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
You know, there's still a path for Harris to become America's first woman president. All it would take is for Biden to do what Republicans were saying he should do in July, and resign. You'd have two months of Harris in charge before Trump takes over—she could potentially do some good in that time. At the very least she could show us what she would do about Gaza when it's just up to her.
I'd been thinking that's what Biden should do anyway if Harris won the election, to head off Republican interference and insurrection... but why not now? Sure, it would be unorthodox, but what about this situation isn't—and it'll be a long wait otherwise.
posted by rory at 10:41 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I'd been thinking that's what Biden should do anyway if Harris won the election, to head off Republican interference and insurrection... but why not now? Sure, it would be unorthodox, but what about this situation isn't—and it'll be a long wait otherwise.
posted by rory at 10:41 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
we desperately need a major project to go out there and interview the people who voted for Trump, but aren't dedicated RepublicansWasn’t this the shared obsession of our entire national news media for like, all of 2021–2022?
posted by mbrubeck at 10:41 AM on November 6 [21 favorites]
it's clear that the Democrats, centrists, the left, whatever you want to call them — just don't understand why people vote for Trump.
And if we collectively conclude "because they're dumb as hell and racist" we stand zero chance of ever getting their votes again.
The least-favorite thing for a voter to get is condescension. "Let me now educate you" is a dreadful sensation -- do you want to be "educated" by Ben Shapiro?
posted by argybarg at 10:41 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
And if we collectively conclude "because they're dumb as hell and racist" we stand zero chance of ever getting their votes again.
The least-favorite thing for a voter to get is condescension. "Let me now educate you" is a dreadful sensation -- do you want to be "educated" by Ben Shapiro?
posted by argybarg at 10:41 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.cool. nice to see that the party that has "had our backs" is learning the lesson that they don't need to have our backs at all
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
which is, honestly, what we expected when we kept being told y'all had our backs and we didn't see much
gotta say, walking the plank for a quick dunk seems a lot less fun knowing y'all might not pull us back up
posted by i used to be someone else at 10:42 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
You know, there's still a path for Harris to become America's first woman president.
Reject EC votes as VP during the count?
posted by mazola at 10:43 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Reject EC votes as VP during the count?
posted by mazola at 10:43 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
>The same thing is also how we got FDR and at the very least why Obama was elected easily in 08
We got FDR in '32 and Obama in '08 because literally tens of millions of people were out of work come Election Day. FDR had 80% majorities to help in Congress, though a lot of that were the Bollweevil Dems that eventually mutated into today's GOP.
posted by torokunai at 10:43 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
We got FDR in '32 and Obama in '08 because literally tens of millions of people were out of work come Election Day. FDR had 80% majorities to help in Congress, though a lot of that were the Bollweevil Dems that eventually mutated into today's GOP.
posted by torokunai at 10:43 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
One reason many people believe Harris is progressive is that she supported progressive policies in the past.
Harris defends shifting positions on fracking and decriminalizing illegal border crossing
Harris has supported gender-affirming care for incarcerated people
Harris defends shifting from some liberal positions
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:44 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Harris defends shifting positions on fracking and decriminalizing illegal border crossing
Harris has supported gender-affirming care for incarcerated people
Harris defends shifting from some liberal positions
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:44 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
If you remove the "was a terrible idea" from the statements I think they are factually incontrovertible statements. What you do with that fact is up to you.
posted by argybarg at 10:44 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 10:44 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I think the challenge is that for many liberals and progressives what you were ardent about pursuing in your teens and 20s gets replaced with a pragmatic liberalism that is more cynical about what is actually achievable in any given election cycle especially given the natural tendencies towards gridlock that is encouraged by our continued use of the senate as a break on populism and that the electoral congress distorts outcomes. Some ardent progressives somehow manage to maintain that their entire life but those appear to be the exceptions rather than the rule.
I think both groups get annoyed with each other, "perfect if the enemy of the good" and "both sides are captured by the investor class". Both group seem to think that the other group are idiots and are clueless and resulting in lost elections but for the most part I think the impact of principled abstainers is overstated by both groups.
Now accelerationists? fuck those guys but I think the number of progressives that are actually accelerationists is small but like so many things social media allows their messaging to be more heard when that shit would've been marginalized to crappy mailing lists even 20 years ago.
posted by vuron at 10:45 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I think both groups get annoyed with each other, "perfect if the enemy of the good" and "both sides are captured by the investor class". Both group seem to think that the other group are idiots and are clueless and resulting in lost elections but for the most part I think the impact of principled abstainers is overstated by both groups.
Now accelerationists? fuck those guys but I think the number of progressives that are actually accelerationists is small but like so many things social media allows their messaging to be more heard when that shit would've been marginalized to crappy mailing lists even 20 years ago.
posted by vuron at 10:45 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
The Progressive Moment Is Over
This essay appears to be about why Noah Smith is wrong about things? Which, y'know, admirable genre, but hardly reflective of national politics.
posted by mittens at 10:45 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This essay appears to be about why Noah Smith is wrong about things? Which, y'know, admirable genre, but hardly reflective of national politics.
posted by mittens at 10:45 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
>You'd have two months of Harris in charge before Trump takes over
That would spare her to having be in the Senate Chamber in January at least, a la Gore 2001.
posted by torokunai at 10:45 AM on November 6
That would spare her to having be in the Senate Chamber in January at least, a la Gore 2001.
posted by torokunai at 10:45 AM on November 6
I'd been thinking that's what Biden should do anyway if Harris won the election, to head off Republican interference and insurrection... but why not now? Sure, it would be unorthodox, but what about this situation isn't—and it'll be a long wait otherwise.
As pointed out on the Shitter (the anything goes app!) this would also invalidate all the 45-47 gear. Which I would not be above relishing.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:45 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
As pointed out on the Shitter (the anything goes app!) this would also invalidate all the 45-47 gear. Which I would not be above relishing.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:45 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
we desperately need a major project to go out there and interview the people who voted for Trump, but aren't dedicated Republicans, to find out why they actually did so
I have a teenage daughter and regularly get reports from her social media trenches about what the young TFG-addled contingent has been saying this week.
I doubt one in ten of them even knows what "Republican" means. Amongst the young it's an absolutely textbook personality cult, with heavy seasonings of Rogan, Peterson, Tate and to some extent Musk.
posted by flabdablet at 10:47 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
I have a teenage daughter and regularly get reports from her social media trenches about what the young TFG-addled contingent has been saying this week.
I doubt one in ten of them even knows what "Republican" means. Amongst the young it's an absolutely textbook personality cult, with heavy seasonings of Rogan, Peterson, Tate and to some extent Musk.
posted by flabdablet at 10:47 AM on November 6 [20 favorites]
Wasn’t this the shared obsession of our entire national news media for like, all of 2021–2022?(Oops, I meant 2017–2018, of course.)
posted by mbrubeck at 10:48 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Promoting lax law enforcement, you say? NBC: DOJ moving to wind down Trump criminal cases before he takes office
posted by mittens at 10:50 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by mittens at 10:50 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
if we collectively conclude "because they're dumb as hell and racist" we stand zero chance of ever getting their votes again
Fuck them and their votes. Build the cities and the urban vote up so much that we don't need them.
The Stranger was right 20 years ago.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:50 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Fuck them and their votes. Build the cities and the urban vote up so much that we don't need them.
The Stranger was right 20 years ago.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:50 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Trump voters are Trump voters. But third-party voters or people who abstained from voting who could have supported Harris voted for Trump. They may not have marked their vote for Trump, but they made a positive choice for a reality where he becomes king, for a country where me and my kind are not only not welcome but are non-humans. I have a lot of complex feelings, but that's the hardest pill to swallow, so far, with more cruelty and murder on the way: Trump promised vengeance, after all, and he will be coming for you third-party voters, just as he will be coming for us.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:52 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:52 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
We got FDR in '32 and Obama in '08 because literally tens of millions of people were out of work come Election Day.
Yeah, and almost nobody voting had any real concept of economic theory or pragmatically how to manage an economy, and AFAICR FDR was campaigning on balancing the budget better than Hoover had. THINGS BAD --> SWITCH TEAM might not be the smartest thing but it does seem to be a big part of how voters react
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:53 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Yeah, and almost nobody voting had any real concept of economic theory or pragmatically how to manage an economy, and AFAICR FDR was campaigning on balancing the budget better than Hoover had. THINGS BAD --> SWITCH TEAM might not be the smartest thing but it does seem to be a big part of how voters react
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:53 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Forgive me for saying so, but I think Trump voters are the real problem here.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:55 AM on November 6 [50 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:55 AM on November 6 [50 favorites]
Promoting lax law enforcement, you say? NBC: DOJ moving to wind down Trump criminal cases before he takes office
So not a bang, nor so much a whimper as a wet fart.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:55 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
So not a bang, nor so much a whimper as a wet fart.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:55 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
1. Loosening restrictions on illegal immigration was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it."
LOL wut?
We should transition ourselves away from fossil fuels for sure but everything else in this list is a hysterical emotional boogeyman.
Dies anyone actually believe this garbage?
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:55 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
2. Promoting lax law enforcement and tolerance of social disorder was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
3. Insisting that everyone should look at all issues through the lens of identity politics was a terrible idea and voters hate it.
4. Telling people fossil fuels are evil and they must stop using them was a terrible idea and voters hate it."
LOL wut?
We should transition ourselves away from fossil fuels for sure but everything else in this list is a hysterical emotional boogeyman.
Dies anyone actually believe this garbage?
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:55 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I am also a centrist about other issues, like the fact that homeless people shouldn't poop on public sidewalks
Maybe if "liberal" cities weren't closing public restroom facilities because homeless people might use them with the excuse that "it's to stop junkies from using them to shoot up" that sort of thing would happen less? Take away people's options and that's what you get, really. Maybe you should try advocating for more public restroom facilities.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:55 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
Maybe if "liberal" cities weren't closing public restroom facilities because homeless people might use them with the excuse that "it's to stop junkies from using them to shoot up" that sort of thing would happen less? Take away people's options and that's what you get, really. Maybe you should try advocating for more public restroom facilities.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:55 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
Yeah, it's a cult that's spreading. If anyone knows how you stop a cult from spreading, share your information here.
posted by argybarg at 10:55 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by argybarg at 10:55 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
You ostracize it, because a cult is already a self-selecting standoffish outgroup seen as deviant by society. This is, at least, a large plurality.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:57 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:57 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
People have reasons for their actions and they have interior lives.
About that…
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:57 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
About that…
posted by TWinbrook8 at 10:57 AM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Let us not forget that if we lived in a functioning democracy within a semi-rational society Trump would be in jail right now for multiple, treasonous crimes. But once Mitch McConnell and The Federalist Society helped make corporations people that could donate as much money as they wanted, in secret, to any campaign, our fate was sealed. The GOP and Fox News have been working tirelessly for decades to create a White, Male, Christian Oligarchy and they are now going to get it. And we are all going to suffer for it. And by ALL I mean the entire f**king world.
posted by pjsky at 10:57 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 10:57 AM on November 6 [30 favorites]
But third-party voters or people who abstained from voting who could have supported Harris voted for Trump.
Third party votes look to be statistically insignificant this election, given the margins we've seen so far. And a lot of the established third parties (the Greens, the Libertarians, the Constitution Party) are imploding. Both of the celebrity independent runs, RFK Jr. and Cornel West, also went bust. You absolutely cannot pin this on third parties this time around.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:57 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Third party votes look to be statistically insignificant this election, given the margins we've seen so far. And a lot of the established third parties (the Greens, the Libertarians, the Constitution Party) are imploding. Both of the celebrity independent runs, RFK Jr. and Cornel West, also went bust. You absolutely cannot pin this on third parties this time around.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:57 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
It does seem "off" that people would go 57% for abortion rights in Florida but vote overwhelmingly for Trump, same with Missouri, etc. But here's the thing: people are dumb as shit.
In Florida it's gerrymandering and top-of-the-ticket voters. Blue voters marooned in purple and red counties can't flip their counties but they can actually have an effect and pass amendments (which... okay, the effect is pretty small given that the always republican governors ignore amendments they don't like, note what happened when Florida said we wanted ex-convicts to be able to vote). Why do pretty good amendments pass but execrable governors keep getting elected? Because fewer republicans cast votes low on the ticket and especially in the amendments section of the ballot. Amendments are always multiple paragraphs long and written in legalese. You have to plan and do work before the election to figure out what they're saying and which side you're on. You're not just going to blaze in, color in a couple of circles, and roll coal out again. You have to sit there a long time in your plastic school chair coloring in circles like you're back in English class. Fuck that bitch work.
posted by Don Pepino at 10:57 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
In Florida it's gerrymandering and top-of-the-ticket voters. Blue voters marooned in purple and red counties can't flip their counties but they can actually have an effect and pass amendments (which... okay, the effect is pretty small given that the always republican governors ignore amendments they don't like, note what happened when Florida said we wanted ex-convicts to be able to vote). Why do pretty good amendments pass but execrable governors keep getting elected? Because fewer republicans cast votes low on the ticket and especially in the amendments section of the ballot. Amendments are always multiple paragraphs long and written in legalese. You have to plan and do work before the election to figure out what they're saying and which side you're on. You're not just going to blaze in, color in a couple of circles, and roll coal out again. You have to sit there a long time in your plastic school chair coloring in circles like you're back in English class. Fuck that bitch work.
posted by Don Pepino at 10:57 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Fuck them and their votes. Build the cities and the urban vote up so much that we don't need them.
Plenty of progressive city dwellers are there because they didn't fit in in conservative communities. And there are plenty of born urbanites that move to the burbs or small towns to avoid "crime" or seek out "traditional values" . That self selection is a big part of why rural and America is as retrograde as it, and why cities are better.
More cities seem unlikely to change things for the better.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:59 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Plenty of progressive city dwellers are there because they didn't fit in in conservative communities. And there are plenty of born urbanites that move to the burbs or small towns to avoid "crime" or seek out "traditional values" . That self selection is a big part of why rural and America is as retrograde as it, and why cities are better.
More cities seem unlikely to change things for the better.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:59 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
It has to be vast structural forces beyond anyone's control, literally anything other than considering that the Dems may have made mistakes or failed to connect with voters.
I’ve agreed with some of what you’ve been saying in this thread but - there’s clearly a substantial effect of structural forces beyond the control of… well, the people a lot of voters seem to think are in control. Democrats have made some mistakes in responding to those forces in their messaging and campaigns, though, which have to be reckoned with.
posted by atoxyl at 10:59 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I’ve agreed with some of what you’ve been saying in this thread but - there’s clearly a substantial effect of structural forces beyond the control of… well, the people a lot of voters seem to think are in control. Democrats have made some mistakes in responding to those forces in their messaging and campaigns, though, which have to be reckoned with.
posted by atoxyl at 10:59 AM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Wasn’t this the shared obsession of our entire national news media for like, all of 2021–2022?
Sure, but that kind of superficial, let's go interview some folks with trucks in red states or check in with the cab driver or diner waitress or whatever style of journalism obviously didn't give us any solid answers. We need more than that (and I don't think major American media are up to the task of doing this).
posted by ssg at 10:59 AM on November 6
Sure, but that kind of superficial, let's go interview some folks with trucks in red states or check in with the cab driver or diner waitress or whatever style of journalism obviously didn't give us any solid answers. We need more than that (and I don't think major American media are up to the task of doing this).
posted by ssg at 10:59 AM on November 6
If America could have just held its shit together for four or eight more years, I could have retired overseas and not had to be here to watch all of these horrors unfold first-hand. Purely selfish, I know. But I'm getting old and I don't want to do this shit forever.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:00 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:00 AM on November 6 [11 favorites]
We all just want the world to feel normal and easy. For me that means access to health care, legal abortion and birth control, my trans and gay friends having equal rights, religion not being able to ban books or run the public schools, cops not shooting innocent people, bullying being seen as a bad thing. But for an equal or larger number of people, the world feeling normal and easy is Patriarchy, Christianity, never questioning authority (no matter how corrupt), and being able to bully anyone different from you.
I think those people’s values are horrific and disgusting, but they feel the same about mine. Equal marriage for my people is a threat to “a woman shall submit to her husband” for theirs and vice versa, as just one example. Is there a way to compromise on culture war issues? How do you compromise on who is allowed to be a person?
posted by rikschell at 11:02 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
I think those people’s values are horrific and disgusting, but they feel the same about mine. Equal marriage for my people is a threat to “a woman shall submit to her husband” for theirs and vice versa, as just one example. Is there a way to compromise on culture war issues? How do you compromise on who is allowed to be a person?
posted by rikschell at 11:02 AM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Harris's unpopularity was never a real thing, nor was dissatisfaction with her not having won the nomination competitively.
She chose her messages and communicated them, if not eloquently, at least sufficiently, and with all the power of $1 billion in funding and the mainstream media ex Fox News fully in her corner.
They weren't the right messages the key audience was looking for.
That said, I'm not sure that it was fixable.
Could she have been serious about inflation? That would involve very un-Democratic Party austerity commitments.
Could she have been said what swing voters wanted to hear about immigration? I don't think so.
Could she have said anything about Gaza that wouldn't piss off more people than it pleased? Doubtful.
posted by MattD at 11:04 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]
She chose her messages and communicated them, if not eloquently, at least sufficiently, and with all the power of $1 billion in funding and the mainstream media ex Fox News fully in her corner.
They weren't the right messages the key audience was looking for.
That said, I'm not sure that it was fixable.
Could she have been serious about inflation? That would involve very un-Democratic Party austerity commitments.
Could she have been said what swing voters wanted to hear about immigration? I don't think so.
Could she have said anything about Gaza that wouldn't piss off more people than it pleased? Doubtful.
posted by MattD at 11:04 AM on November 6 [31 favorites]
Even my pathetic "flee America" plans are crumbling now, because TFG is likely perfectly willing to cease all aid to Ukraine, Putin will win, and Moldova is next, with Romania (which would have been our destination) right behind it.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:07 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:07 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
How do you compromise on who is allowed to be a person?
That attitude is conventionally known as 'live and let live,' and people are more persuadable to it when they feel economically secure. (And the inverse for divide-and-conquer. See Atwater on the Southern Strategy.)
It's not ever only one thing. If it were, politics would be a whole lot easier.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:07 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
That attitude is conventionally known as 'live and let live,' and people are more persuadable to it when they feel economically secure. (And the inverse for divide-and-conquer. See Atwater on the Southern Strategy.)
It's not ever only one thing. If it were, politics would be a whole lot easier.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:07 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
The replacement of Trump by Vance will cause significant harm to the cult. That's at least some good news (when it occurs).
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:07 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 11:07 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
People have reasons for their actions and they have interior lives.
About that…
Yeah don’t do that. No internal monologue =/= no interior life. It is much more common for autistic people to lack an internal monologue, that doesn’t mean we don’t have reasons for doing things, come on.
posted by brook horse at 11:11 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
About that…
Yeah don’t do that. No internal monologue =/= no interior life. It is much more common for autistic people to lack an internal monologue, that doesn’t mean we don’t have reasons for doing things, come on.
posted by brook horse at 11:11 AM on November 6 [22 favorites]
In my conversation today with my 90 year old mom, she made this prediction, which I found somewhat chilling ... they nurse Trump along until past the midpoint of his term, then he retires or gets 25th or whatever. That gives us Vance for the remainder of Trump's term PLUS his two additional terms, each of which he runs for as the incumbent. I actually hate this timeline more now.
posted by anastasiav at 11:12 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
posted by anastasiav at 11:12 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Moldova is next, with Romania (which would have been our destination) right behind it.
Happy at least if he's not targeting the Baltic countries.
Tiny blessings.
posted by UbuRoivas at 11:12 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Happy at least if he's not targeting the Baltic countries.
Tiny blessings.
posted by UbuRoivas at 11:12 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
AUGH!!! CAN'T JACK SMITH JUST TURN OVER HIS STUFF TO CONGRESS AND WE CAN ACTUALLY IMPEACH TFG? I mean, he doesn't have to be in office to be impeached. I know this is a long shot with congress, but maybe Moscow Mitch will do the right thing as a lame duck.
posted by frecklefaerie at 11:18 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by frecklefaerie at 11:18 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Biden is operating at roughly the level of Dana Carvey's impersonation and the Harris/Walz campaign has decided to say nothing until 4pm. (!?!)
There is not going to be any bizzaro world deus ex machina.
And Mitch might be the one person ultimately most responsible for enabling our current state of affairs. He engineered this moment. Even if it isn't precisely what he intended or hoped for, he's certainly not going to undermine it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:20 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
There is not going to be any bizzaro world deus ex machina.
And Mitch might be the one person ultimately most responsible for enabling our current state of affairs. He engineered this moment. Even if it isn't precisely what he intended or hoped for, he's certainly not going to undermine it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:20 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
This isn't globally exceptional - Trump is an Orban, a Berlusconi, a Netanyahu, a Putin. And, as others have noted, a Brexit.
It's also not historically exceptional - the US has had plenty of long runs of awful, regressive leadership.
After 2016, it's also not surprising.
posted by kaibutsu at 11:20 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
It's also not historically exceptional - the US has had plenty of long runs of awful, regressive leadership.
After 2016, it's also not surprising.
posted by kaibutsu at 11:20 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
> Even my pathetic "flee America" plans are crumbling now, because TFG is likely perfectly willing to cease all aid to Ukraine, Putin will win, and Moldova is next, with Romania (which would have been our destination) right behind it.
If you have citizenship, Romania as a member state of the EU allows residence in other EU countries.
posted by NotAYakk at 11:22 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
If you have citizenship, Romania as a member state of the EU allows residence in other EU countries.
posted by NotAYakk at 11:22 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I am single, but can't abandon my family members, who are not going to leave Southern California. My parents are old, my Dad is in care. My Mom will only remain independent so long. My sister has young twins and a faltering relationship with her partner.
At best, maybe I could move to Mexico and try to somehow find work related to onshoring. Which I will hardly be the only person to think of.
(Plus, the only places I could go by right would be Hungary or Israel. Whee.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:27 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
At best, maybe I could move to Mexico and try to somehow find work related to onshoring. Which I will hardly be the only person to think of.
(Plus, the only places I could go by right would be Hungary or Israel. Whee.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:27 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
It really just looks like fewer people showed up to vote, full stop. Fewer votes for Trump, waaaaaay fewer votes for Harris in comparison to 2020 totals for Trump and Biden.
Fear of Trump did not motivate enough people to vote, triangulation with promises of Republican cabinet positions did not motivate enough people to vote, Dick Cheney's endorsement did not motivate enough people to vote, "The economy is great actually" did not motivate enough people to vote, "I will continue the policies of Joe Biden" did not motivate enough people to vote, and the support for Israel did not motivate enough people to vote.
It was less that the country chose and more that the country shrugged its shoulders and the dems lost more voter in the process.
Like, the campaign motivated some people here. That did not translate outside this particular media bubble. Why will be bitterly argued through the midterms (I'm firmly on "the precariat didn't see the fucking point of it" when eggs and bread cost what they do).
Fire everyone who ran top level decisions for the campaign and coordinated with the Biden admin. They've deeply fucked up and cannot be trusted to chart the course again, whoever they are.
posted by Slackermagee at 11:30 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Fear of Trump did not motivate enough people to vote, triangulation with promises of Republican cabinet positions did not motivate enough people to vote, Dick Cheney's endorsement did not motivate enough people to vote, "The economy is great actually" did not motivate enough people to vote, "I will continue the policies of Joe Biden" did not motivate enough people to vote, and the support for Israel did not motivate enough people to vote.
It was less that the country chose and more that the country shrugged its shoulders and the dems lost more voter in the process.
Like, the campaign motivated some people here. That did not translate outside this particular media bubble. Why will be bitterly argued through the midterms (I'm firmly on "the precariat didn't see the fucking point of it" when eggs and bread cost what they do).
Fire everyone who ran top level decisions for the campaign and coordinated with the Biden admin. They've deeply fucked up and cannot be trusted to chart the course again, whoever they are.
posted by Slackermagee at 11:30 AM on November 6 [7 favorites]
They do not understand that the president cannot control gas prices
The thing is: the people in power can control gas prices. Federally, it would be a valid exercise of the commerce clause to say that differing refining standards and gas excise taxes affect interstate commerce and so state gas taxes will be capped and there will be one environmental standard for gas. That would mean all refineries could produce gas for all states. If our relationship with Saudi Arabia were better, they probably wouldn't have cut oil production. And of course, pipelines. They have huge environmental costs, just like everything here has tradeoffs - but these things *do* control gas prices.
Or, alternatively, the government could give a gas credit; accepting that gas prices are too high, it could give a tax credit to make up for the pinch.
I don't understand why we somehow throw up our hands and act like it's impossible for Democrats to deliver economically. It's absolutely possible to control prices on staple goods. Fuck, we subsidize corn syrup, we could subsidize actual food. It's not a fucking mystery.
posted by corb at 11:30 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]
The thing is: the people in power can control gas prices. Federally, it would be a valid exercise of the commerce clause to say that differing refining standards and gas excise taxes affect interstate commerce and so state gas taxes will be capped and there will be one environmental standard for gas. That would mean all refineries could produce gas for all states. If our relationship with Saudi Arabia were better, they probably wouldn't have cut oil production. And of course, pipelines. They have huge environmental costs, just like everything here has tradeoffs - but these things *do* control gas prices.
Or, alternatively, the government could give a gas credit; accepting that gas prices are too high, it could give a tax credit to make up for the pinch.
I don't understand why we somehow throw up our hands and act like it's impossible for Democrats to deliver economically. It's absolutely possible to control prices on staple goods. Fuck, we subsidize corn syrup, we could subsidize actual food. It's not a fucking mystery.
posted by corb at 11:30 AM on November 6 [41 favorites]
If you have citizenship, Romania as a member state of the EU allows residence in other EU countries
I'm not. My spouse is. I can live in EU countries with her, but it would be hard for me to work.
Although, honestly, having briefly reflected on the self-interest part of that puzzle, I am now back to oh god, Ukraine is fucked. With a chase of "Our family in Romania will not be safe."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:31 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I'm not. My spouse is. I can live in EU countries with her, but it would be hard for me to work.
Although, honestly, having briefly reflected on the self-interest part of that puzzle, I am now back to oh god, Ukraine is fucked. With a chase of "Our family in Romania will not be safe."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:31 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Fire everyone who ran top level decisions for the campaign and coordinated with the Biden admin.
Well, they'll be in jail anyway, so...
posted by mittens at 11:33 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Well, they'll be in jail anyway, so...
posted by mittens at 11:33 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Are we really arguing for federal fuel subsidies?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:34 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:34 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Yeah don’t do that. No internal monologue =/= no interior life. It is much more common for autistic people to lack an internal monologue, that doesn’t mean we don’t have reasons for doing things, come on.
Never had an autism diagnosis, but my own internal monologue consists pretty much entirely of the question "What are you thinking right now?" and it only really comes up when I start wondering whether I have an internal monologue or not. The whole rest of the time there's nothing going on in this default mode network's audio section but music.
Most of the thinking that happens in here when I'm not actually speaking or writing feels pseudo-spatial/relational rather than verbal, and it usually takes me a fair bit of internal faffing about to translate that into a coherent string of words.
Got fuck-all internal visuals, too.
posted by flabdablet at 11:35 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Never had an autism diagnosis, but my own internal monologue consists pretty much entirely of the question "What are you thinking right now?" and it only really comes up when I start wondering whether I have an internal monologue or not. The whole rest of the time there's nothing going on in this default mode network's audio section but music.
Most of the thinking that happens in here when I'm not actually speaking or writing feels pseudo-spatial/relational rather than verbal, and it usually takes me a fair bit of internal faffing about to translate that into a coherent string of words.
Got fuck-all internal visuals, too.
posted by flabdablet at 11:35 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Roughly 24% of Americans identify as evangelical Christians. Combined with another 6% or so that could be described as conservative Catholics you get up to 30% of the US and probably some % of mainline protestants. Let's be generous and assume that get's us up to 37-40% That's the primary group pushing the Project 2025 stuff and I don't think you can even assume all of them are on board with enshrining an evangelical viewpoint as sacrosanct. The reason why they are pushing this stuff so hard is that the US is secularizing at an rapid rate and they feel that this is the last chance of forcing this on the rest of us. To some of them it's some sort of weird existential issue and I think they assume Trump is easily manipulated and can be bullied into pushing through all sorts of wildly unpopular shit. They might be right since the guy is a moron who actually seems to have zero bullshit filter.
The more they try to shove this stuff down people's throats the quicker people get secularized. It's honestly a lose-lose proposition for them but I guess they feel their faith compels them to pursue these goals.
We don't have to be tolerant of intolerance but we should be clear that this is a minority position of a minority population. It's just a very loyal voting block who really like to view everything through the lens of a crusade against X.
If lots of crossover voters voted for Trump because pocketbook issues but voted for various ballot initiatives to expand personal rights at a state level those are the people you can engage with. It can be as simple as "i don't see how pushing restrictions on abortion makes gas/eggs/milk/rent cheaper so why is congress wasting time with this stuff". I think that's how we fracture that voting coalition and help protect the most vulnerable members of our coalition.
posted by vuron at 11:36 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
The more they try to shove this stuff down people's throats the quicker people get secularized. It's honestly a lose-lose proposition for them but I guess they feel their faith compels them to pursue these goals.
We don't have to be tolerant of intolerance but we should be clear that this is a minority position of a minority population. It's just a very loyal voting block who really like to view everything through the lens of a crusade against X.
If lots of crossover voters voted for Trump because pocketbook issues but voted for various ballot initiatives to expand personal rights at a state level those are the people you can engage with. It can be as simple as "i don't see how pushing restrictions on abortion makes gas/eggs/milk/rent cheaper so why is congress wasting time with this stuff". I think that's how we fracture that voting coalition and help protect the most vulnerable members of our coalition.
posted by vuron at 11:36 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
The "offended right wing CPUSA member" is a pretty funny bit. Hope we get to see more of that.
posted by jy4m at 11:37 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 11:37 AM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This isn't globally exceptionaMany of the places Trump has promised to log, burn, pave and drill are globally exceptional. I suggest that those of you who love your beautiful country's wild places get out and see them one last time. As a Canadian, I would, but I'm even less inclined to cross the border now.
posted by klanawa at 11:37 AM on November 6 [12 favorites]
It really just looks like fewer people showed up to vote, full stop. Fewer votes for Trump, waaaaaay fewer votes for Harris in comparison to 2020 totals for Trump and Biden
Why do people keep trying to analyze this with West Coast counts clearly not all in yet?
posted by atoxyl at 11:38 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Why do people keep trying to analyze this with West Coast counts clearly not all in yet?
posted by atoxyl at 11:38 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I am hoping that the demographic consequences for both sides of the war in Ukraine dragging on (and the economics, for Russia) forces the conflict to freeze where it is.
Which I hate -- even if forced to cede Luhansk and Donetsk, and Crimea it would normally be intolerable that Ukraine not get Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol back.
But unless European powers can step in, I think that may be as good as it gets.
Though, as with NATO, while I think some weakening is inevitable, there is at lease some potential that a coalition between more conventional defense conservatives (including career officers and agency people) and the military-industrial complex pushes back and the campaign stance winds up not being the policy.
A new Trump administration can retain and reframe whatever portion of the current policy it pleases at its own, and their base will just accept it and trumpet about it. There does not need to be a shred of consistency or logic.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:39 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Which I hate -- even if forced to cede Luhansk and Donetsk, and Crimea it would normally be intolerable that Ukraine not get Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol back.
But unless European powers can step in, I think that may be as good as it gets.
Though, as with NATO, while I think some weakening is inevitable, there is at lease some potential that a coalition between more conventional defense conservatives (including career officers and agency people) and the military-industrial complex pushes back and the campaign stance winds up not being the policy.
A new Trump administration can retain and reframe whatever portion of the current policy it pleases at its own, and their base will just accept it and trumpet about it. There does not need to be a shred of consistency or logic.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:39 AM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Why do people keep trying to analyze this with West Coast counts clearly not all in yet?
I have no fucking idea.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:39 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I have no fucking idea.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:39 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I'm still devastated.
Rape is okay. Burgers costing more is not.
Most Americans are not better or more complex than this.
posted by ichomp at 11:39 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
Rape is okay. Burgers costing more is not.
Most Americans are not better or more complex than this.
posted by ichomp at 11:39 AM on November 6 [28 favorites]
After 2016, it's also not surprising.
I'd say it's not so surprising after 2000. To do a bit of autobiographical "it's all about my generation" navel-gazing; to a millennial who grew up in '90s afterglow of the Cold War, when it seemed like maybe we could drift into a fluffy consumer End of History, U.N. world government, mankind united around stopping killer asteroids and colonizing space... it feels like everything since 9/11 has been one Long Emergency. And everything since Bush v. Gore has been "those bastards stole our country." (Though I suppose this goes back much further- for starters, the Republicans never ever forgave Bill Clinton for being charismatic enough to steal their post-Reagan thunder, and spent his presidency shutting down the government and spreading New World Order globalist conspiracy theories.)
idk, it feels like we never resolved our War on Terror trauma. The partisan hyperpolarization, the disregard for expert opinions in favor of the leader's truthiness (remember that word?), the need for enemies both external and internal, the corruption and authoritarianism and even sneering anti-intellectual crassness- I really don't see how Trump isn't just another malefactor operating in the same space that the Bush administration opened after the most devastating attack on American soil, followed by a horrendous war made on false pretenses.
I'm still waiting to return to 1999. Alas, given how ecologically and economically the world is structured now, I don't think we ever will. Hope and Change couldn't bring it back. Maybe there will be a new FDR one day... but she wasn't running in this election.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:42 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]
I'd say it's not so surprising after 2000. To do a bit of autobiographical "it's all about my generation" navel-gazing; to a millennial who grew up in '90s afterglow of the Cold War, when it seemed like maybe we could drift into a fluffy consumer End of History, U.N. world government, mankind united around stopping killer asteroids and colonizing space... it feels like everything since 9/11 has been one Long Emergency. And everything since Bush v. Gore has been "those bastards stole our country." (Though I suppose this goes back much further- for starters, the Republicans never ever forgave Bill Clinton for being charismatic enough to steal their post-Reagan thunder, and spent his presidency shutting down the government and spreading New World Order globalist conspiracy theories.)
idk, it feels like we never resolved our War on Terror trauma. The partisan hyperpolarization, the disregard for expert opinions in favor of the leader's truthiness (remember that word?), the need for enemies both external and internal, the corruption and authoritarianism and even sneering anti-intellectual crassness- I really don't see how Trump isn't just another malefactor operating in the same space that the Bush administration opened after the most devastating attack on American soil, followed by a horrendous war made on false pretenses.
I'm still waiting to return to 1999. Alas, given how ecologically and economically the world is structured now, I don't think we ever will. Hope and Change couldn't bring it back. Maybe there will be a new FDR one day... but she wasn't running in this election.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:42 AM on November 6 [27 favorites]
Though I suppose this goes back much further
The escalating tit-for-tat goes all the way back to Nixon, via the Bork affair.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:46 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
The escalating tit-for-tat goes all the way back to Nixon, via the Bork affair.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:46 AM on November 6 [8 favorites]
My spouse (Hungarian-Romanian, now a US citizen), has never been an especially reassuring person in times like these, which continued as she said flatly to our son, "We are not getting this country back again."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:48 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:48 AM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Apocryphon, you verbalized something I've though of, on and off, for years (I assume we're probably the same vintage). Only I disabused myself of the notion that we're ever going back to 1999, between 2008 (the banking crisis) and 2017 (the first Trump administration). Everything is just too fucked up.
posted by Omon Ra at 11:49 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by Omon Ra at 11:49 AM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Rape is okay. Burgers costing more is not.
Someone said to me today "Trump is not the first president who did a rape. He's not even the tenth. He won't be the last."
posted by anastasiav at 11:49 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Someone said to me today "Trump is not the first president who did a rape. He's not even the tenth. He won't be the last."
posted by anastasiav at 11:49 AM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Why do people keep trying to analyze this with West Coast counts clearly not all in yet?
I have no fucking idea.
Can everyone please just read the % reported figures?
If every projected vote remaining went 100% to Harris in CA, WA, OR, NV, and AZ she would be down from Biden's 81mil mark by about 1mil (currently at 69 mil) at a quick look.
And they won't be going to her 100%. So please get past this? There are fewer votes than last time. The votes are just not there.
posted by Slackermagee at 11:49 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
I have no fucking idea.
Can everyone please just read the % reported figures?
If every projected vote remaining went 100% to Harris in CA, WA, OR, NV, and AZ she would be down from Biden's 81mil mark by about 1mil (currently at 69 mil) at a quick look.
And they won't be going to her 100%. So please get past this? There are fewer votes than last time. The votes are just not there.
posted by Slackermagee at 11:49 AM on November 6 [4 favorites]
There are fewer votes than last time. The votes are just not there.
I think what people are having trouble with is their lived experience of very long -- EXCEPTIONALLY LONG -- polling lines with "fewer people voted"
posted by anastasiav at 11:51 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
I think what people are having trouble with is their lived experience of very long -- EXCEPTIONALLY LONG -- polling lines with "fewer people voted"
posted by anastasiav at 11:51 AM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Yep, unfortunately this almost certainly forces Zelensky's hand to accept some sort of largely unfavorable end to the conflict unless defense hawks in the Trump administration decide that reframing support for Ukraine as being a good thing happens. In theory Europe could probably keep Ukraine propped up and just keep bleeding Russia white reducing the aggregate threat Russia poses to EU members but I'm not sure how that would work in practice. I think at this point while the Baltics are still at risk down the road Putin will need to pause and lick his wounds and consolidate his "gains" as phyrric as they've been.
posted by vuron at 11:53 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
posted by vuron at 11:53 AM on November 6 [6 favorites]
It's even the little things. Like, will the TSA ever lift some of their airport restrictions? Never mind the PATRIOT Act is still around in some form and Gitmo is still there. We're never going back to 9/10. And of course, it's sort of a stereotypically myopic boomer mindset to want to return to a halcyon age that never actually existed. To yearn for a '50s that only existed for a subset of the population.
But I mean, American society certainly felt less angry before September 11. We were promised that the world was changing for the better, and that we could enact that change. But the world refused to change.
Only I disabused myself of the notion that we're ever going back to 1999, between 2008 (the banking crisis) and 2017 (the first Trump administration).
We can't go back to the less contentious, less shaky time before the War on Terror, but man oh man we really should've had some sort of national reconciliation process. Or not even reconciliation, but acknowledgement of, "the shadowy threat is gone, you can breathe now." It all just sort of dissolved into a muddled mess. This discussion thread doesn't mention the hit to Biden's ratings with his Afghanistan pullout, and how it might have affected this race, and why should it? Another forever war turned into forgotten conflict. Shoved into the same perpetual psychosphere of anxiety, unease, and accusation of the last twenty-three years.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:58 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
But I mean, American society certainly felt less angry before September 11. We were promised that the world was changing for the better, and that we could enact that change. But the world refused to change.
Only I disabused myself of the notion that we're ever going back to 1999, between 2008 (the banking crisis) and 2017 (the first Trump administration).
We can't go back to the less contentious, less shaky time before the War on Terror, but man oh man we really should've had some sort of national reconciliation process. Or not even reconciliation, but acknowledgement of, "the shadowy threat is gone, you can breathe now." It all just sort of dissolved into a muddled mess. This discussion thread doesn't mention the hit to Biden's ratings with his Afghanistan pullout, and how it might have affected this race, and why should it? Another forever war turned into forgotten conflict. Shoved into the same perpetual psychosphere of anxiety, unease, and accusation of the last twenty-three years.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:58 AM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Most Americans are not better or more complex than this.
Covid made this clear.
One's mild inconvenience at having to wear a mask > millions dead or disabled
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:01 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
Covid made this clear.
One's mild inconvenience at having to wear a mask > millions dead or disabled
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:01 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
At least we don't have to worry about another pandemic during Trump's next term!
posted by mittens at 12:01 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by mittens at 12:01 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
There's a large contingent on the left that simply can't comprehend that what they believe about the world (all POC, young people, and non-straight/cis people are inherently good leftists and it's merely a small contingent of elderly white reactionaries who need to be dealt with)
I ran into a former student yesterday. Young man, Nigerian immigrant, enthusiastically pro Trump, pro RFK. In Canada.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 12:02 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
I ran into a former student yesterday. Young man, Nigerian immigrant, enthusiastically pro Trump, pro RFK. In Canada.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 12:02 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow, I work with a lovely Nigerian immigrant but she really thinks that the US is the bee's knees and that Canada is dead, and even with this today, she is like, "I would rather be in the US than here. No question."
Honestly, I don't know what to do with that so I just shrug and change the subject.
posted by Kitteh at 12:04 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Honestly, I don't know what to do with that so I just shrug and change the subject.
posted by Kitteh at 12:04 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I have no evidence or justifiable reason for any of this but Trumps win is directly tied to the sheer volume of people who now like do drive 45 miles an hour in residential zones and run through stop signs.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:09 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:09 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]
I don't think that minority male support for Trump was chiefly motivated by gender grievances, it feels too pat an explanation and I don't think the Harris campaign invoked identity as much as Clinton did. That said, I have to wonder if the U.S. is unintentionally following in the footsteps of South Korea, right down to declining birthrates being brought up by weird nerds like Vance and Musk.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:11 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:11 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Isn't Trump's sentencing in the New York case supposed to happen in a few weeks? The judge might as well send him to prison for a month or so before inauguration. Why not? (aside from the threats to the judge and family)
posted by downtohisturtles at 12:13 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by downtohisturtles at 12:13 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Obviously this is first and foremost a disaster for Americans, but just to reassure you that those of us in Europe feel we have skin in the game too: it is not at all far-fetched to imagine that we're edging closer to a wider war in Europe. All it will take is for Trump immediately pulling funding for Ukraine, which can’t last against Putin without it; then Trump pulling out of NATO; and then Putin chancing his arm at invading the Baltics and Poland to recreate the Russian Empire circa 1914. Some or all of that could happen within a year or two.
Putin might not have been game to tackle the Baltics while the US is part of NATO, but when NATO is just the EU, Canada and Brexit Island, all bets are off. Yes, France and the UK have nukes, but are they going to be able to wave them around menacingly without the US at their backs?
Meanwhile, on Brexit Island, our only hope in not being screwed by Trump's global tariffs the same way we screwed ourselves over trade with the EU is for our Labour government to strike a deal with Trump over free trade, which... nahhh.
posted by rory at 12:18 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Putin might not have been game to tackle the Baltics while the US is part of NATO, but when NATO is just the EU, Canada and Brexit Island, all bets are off. Yes, France and the UK have nukes, but are they going to be able to wave them around menacingly without the US at their backs?
Meanwhile, on Brexit Island, our only hope in not being screwed by Trump's global tariffs the same way we screwed ourselves over trade with the EU is for our Labour government to strike a deal with Trump over free trade, which... nahhh.
posted by rory at 12:18 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
The U.S. of A. being shown the menu of Presidential choices:
Menu: White men, some of whom will lie, rape, steal, own slaves, cheat, and commit treason.
U.S.A.: Great, gimme like 45 of 'em.
Menu: Black man, who is charismatic and intelligent but also kiiiinda right of center.
U.S.A.: Oh, awesome I'll take one.
Menu: Mixed-race woman, who is currently the VP of arguably one of the most successful administrations in U.S. history but who is just a little bit more right of center from the Black President, OR, a convicted felon, convicted rapist, instigator of insurrection and literal treason, racist, anti-veteran, anti-reproductive-rights, lying, cheating, bankrupt businessman, who just happens to be white.
U.S.A.: Ummm....
Menu: Did I mention that the white guy is also bought and sold by billionaires AND Vladimir Putin? And wants to develop the land in Gaza and thinks Palestinians are a barrier to that?
U.S.A: Welllll....
Menu: Oh, don't forget that your grocery and gas bills are super high, which has absolutely nothing to do with the Presidency but everything to do with price gouging, putting the interests of the stockholders above the consumers, Capitalism, and, the white guy? Is a massive tool of the elite class?
U.S.A.: WELL THE CHOICE IS CLEAR.
Menu: The mixed race Black woman who is imminently qualified, comes from the working class, believes in the American Dream, will not burn the Constitution, and also isn't literally a convicted felon?
U.S.A.: ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND??? THE WHITE GUY, OBVIOUSLY.
posted by cooker girl at 12:20 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]
Menu: White men, some of whom will lie, rape, steal, own slaves, cheat, and commit treason.
U.S.A.: Great, gimme like 45 of 'em.
Menu: Black man, who is charismatic and intelligent but also kiiiinda right of center.
U.S.A.: Oh, awesome I'll take one.
Menu: Mixed-race woman, who is currently the VP of arguably one of the most successful administrations in U.S. history but who is just a little bit more right of center from the Black President, OR, a convicted felon, convicted rapist, instigator of insurrection and literal treason, racist, anti-veteran, anti-reproductive-rights, lying, cheating, bankrupt businessman, who just happens to be white.
U.S.A.: Ummm....
Menu: Did I mention that the white guy is also bought and sold by billionaires AND Vladimir Putin? And wants to develop the land in Gaza and thinks Palestinians are a barrier to that?
U.S.A: Welllll....
Menu: Oh, don't forget that your grocery and gas bills are super high, which has absolutely nothing to do with the Presidency but everything to do with price gouging, putting the interests of the stockholders above the consumers, Capitalism, and, the white guy? Is a massive tool of the elite class?
U.S.A.: WELL THE CHOICE IS CLEAR.
Menu: The mixed race Black woman who is imminently qualified, comes from the working class, believes in the American Dream, will not burn the Constitution, and also isn't literally a convicted felon?
U.S.A.: ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND??? THE WHITE GUY, OBVIOUSLY.
posted by cooker girl at 12:20 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]
> I don't think that minority male support for Trump was chiefly motivated by gender grievances, it feels too pat an explanation and I don't think the Harris campaign invoked identity as much as Clinton did.
This is a flabbergasting statement. Aren't minority men capable of sexism? Was it Clinton's *fault* somehow for actively drawing attention to her gender? (I wonder if you were ever critical of Obama for talking about the fact that he is obviously Black?Or is it only gender you apply this insane fucking standard to?)
Also: are you saying voters are incapable of noticing on their own that a candidate is a woman, without the candidate drawing attention to the fact? And what, pray, is "pat" about the explanation that sexism played a huge role in Harris's and Clinton's loss... like, are you saying it's too obvious or are you saying it's too simplistic or are you saying it explains too much...?
Women just can't win in this country, have you noticed that? Literally and figuratively. In the election and on this thread, women can't win. We can't point out that we're women for fear of it being our fault that people get mad at us for being women and drawing attention to it. We can't point out sexism without being accused of playing the gender card and whining - and apparently offering "pat" explanations. No, please YOU tell me, what is the reason that Obama can get elected against two white guys but Harris and Clinton lost? What is the reason Biden can beat Trump but Clinton and Harris cannot? How many ways do we need to run this fucking experiment, with how many permutations and control sets, before you will entertain the possibility that yes, maybe the electorate is misogynistic, yes the entire electorate, even your previous minority men who AREN'T magically immune to the misogyny in all our systems?
I see so many people saying "well of course it wasn't about gender" all over this thread. WHERE ARE YOU FINDING THIS CERTAINTY. WHERE. HOW.
posted by MiraK at 12:21 PM on November 6 [56 favorites]
This is a flabbergasting statement. Aren't minority men capable of sexism? Was it Clinton's *fault* somehow for actively drawing attention to her gender? (I wonder if you were ever critical of Obama for talking about the fact that he is obviously Black?Or is it only gender you apply this insane fucking standard to?)
Also: are you saying voters are incapable of noticing on their own that a candidate is a woman, without the candidate drawing attention to the fact? And what, pray, is "pat" about the explanation that sexism played a huge role in Harris's and Clinton's loss... like, are you saying it's too obvious or are you saying it's too simplistic or are you saying it explains too much...?
Women just can't win in this country, have you noticed that? Literally and figuratively. In the election and on this thread, women can't win. We can't point out that we're women for fear of it being our fault that people get mad at us for being women and drawing attention to it. We can't point out sexism without being accused of playing the gender card and whining - and apparently offering "pat" explanations. No, please YOU tell me, what is the reason that Obama can get elected against two white guys but Harris and Clinton lost? What is the reason Biden can beat Trump but Clinton and Harris cannot? How many ways do we need to run this fucking experiment, with how many permutations and control sets, before you will entertain the possibility that yes, maybe the electorate is misogynistic, yes the entire electorate, even your previous minority men who AREN'T magically immune to the misogyny in all our systems?
I see so many people saying "well of course it wasn't about gender" all over this thread. WHERE ARE YOU FINDING THIS CERTAINTY. WHERE. HOW.
posted by MiraK at 12:21 PM on November 6 [56 favorites]
when NATO is just the EU, Canada and Brexit Island, all bets are off
Canada will likely tap out after the next federal election, for what it's worth.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:21 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Canada will likely tap out after the next federal election, for what it's worth.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:21 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
That may alll be true but whatever gender the incumbent is and whatever gender the challenger is, the incumbent is gonna lose 95% of the time with an economy like this.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:24 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:24 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Also, Biden would have lost by way more if he didn’t step aside.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:25 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:25 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I don't know how we got here but there's this consistent perception that Conservatives/Republicans are focused on the economy and don't let side issues like rights get in the way while Liberals/Progressives/Democrats are focused on rights and identity politics and are weak on the economy. But if you look at pretty much any campaign platform ever it is the Liberals/Progressives/Democrats that actually have workable plans for growing the economy that the media ignores and it's the Conservatives/Republicans that have nothing and are just spending all their time talking about rights and identity politics. Yet somehow this perception remains and it isn't just a US thing or an Anglosphere thing either.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:26 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:26 PM on November 6 [47 favorites]
I may be done with the USA.
How could anyone look at these two candidates, and vote for TFG...?
And now we have to deal with all the shit the he will bring down.
I had hopium that we would do the obvious right thing. But, no...
Hugs to all of us who need them. FUCK!!!
posted by Windopaene at 12:26 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
How could anyone look at these two candidates, and vote for TFG...?
And now we have to deal with all the shit the he will bring down.
I had hopium that we would do the obvious right thing. But, no...
Hugs to all of us who need them. FUCK!!!
posted by Windopaene at 12:26 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Also, Biden would have lost by way more if he didn’t step aside.
That's a fact, jack.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:26 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
That's a fact, jack.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:26 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I see so many people saying "well of course it wasn't about gender" all over this thread.
I said it was not chiefly about gender, and really I just wanted to point at an international case study. South Korea is another democracy whose capitalist growth glory days are well behind them, and their gender war issues are absolutely staggering, despite electing the first female president in East Asia. Maybe I should have just posted the link without commentary, because you are attacking a side point to what I was trying to highlight.
And for what it's worth, Nikki Haley probably would have won with greater margins this year, as the NeverTrumpers and traditional establishment Republicans would be on her side, maybe more independents and conservative Democrats as well. How does that square with your narrative?
posted by Apocryphon at 12:28 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I said it was not chiefly about gender, and really I just wanted to point at an international case study. South Korea is another democracy whose capitalist growth glory days are well behind them, and their gender war issues are absolutely staggering, despite electing the first female president in East Asia. Maybe I should have just posted the link without commentary, because you are attacking a side point to what I was trying to highlight.
And for what it's worth, Nikki Haley probably would have won with greater margins this year, as the NeverTrumpers and traditional establishment Republicans would be on her side, maybe more independents and conservative Democrats as well. How does that square with your narrative?
posted by Apocryphon at 12:28 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
> Also, Biden would have lost by way more if he didn’t step aside.
> That's a fact, jack.
LOL how nice that the hypothetical scenario is unprovable. You can now pat yourselves and the whole country on the back door being soooo over archaic notions like racial and sexism. Who needs to talk about that nonsense!
For the record the day Biden stepped down all my white friends were happy but I was FURIOUS, and so were all my Black friends. (My South Asian "friends" are apolitical i.e. Republican assholes.)
But we - my Black friends and I - knew we were doomed from that day on. We all like Harris, we all worked hard to do my part for her son but I knew we were doomed. We always, always, always stood a much better chance of winning with a white guy than a Black / Asian woman for president even despite Biden being obviously disabled and not fit for office. Anyone with a smidge of honesty will admit to the truth of this.
posted by MiraK at 12:29 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
> That's a fact, jack.
LOL how nice that the hypothetical scenario is unprovable. You can now pat yourselves and the whole country on the back door being soooo over archaic notions like racial and sexism. Who needs to talk about that nonsense!
For the record the day Biden stepped down all my white friends were happy but I was FURIOUS, and so were all my Black friends. (My South Asian "friends" are apolitical i.e. Republican assholes.)
But we - my Black friends and I - knew we were doomed from that day on. We all like Harris, we all worked hard to do my part for her son but I knew we were doomed. We always, always, always stood a much better chance of winning with a white guy than a Black / Asian woman for president even despite Biden being obviously disabled and not fit for office. Anyone with a smidge of honesty will admit to the truth of this.
posted by MiraK at 12:29 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
>with an economy like this
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1z9Fj
^ unemployment claims, log scale to wipe out the COVID spike to some extent
posted by torokunai at 12:30 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1z9Fj
^ unemployment claims, log scale to wipe out the COVID spike to some extent
posted by torokunai at 12:30 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
How could Nikki Haley have won the Presidential race when she couldn't make it out of the primary?
posted by cooker girl at 12:30 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by cooker girl at 12:30 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
US fertility rate is 1.67. Short of implementing some very friendly pro-family legislation along the lines of more paid maternity leave and significant improvements to childcare costs that isn't reversing anytime soon and that trend will probably get even more pronounced with Gen-Z and -Alpha. In migration is probably the only way to bridge the gap between 1.67 and 2.1 which is the replacement rate. It's not catastrophic in the way SK is experiencing with .72 but it will result in some significant demographic pressures.
All of the blood of the nation rhetoric comes back to this. Non-hispanic white fertility rate are even lower at something like 1.6. If you don't like Brown people and you don't want to experience the sort of declining and graying population developed economies are experiencing you are probably going to push for all sorts of dumb shit rather than just make the cost of having children easier to bear. But you know brown people scary and immigrant brown people extra scary....
posted by vuron at 12:31 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
All of the blood of the nation rhetoric comes back to this. Non-hispanic white fertility rate are even lower at something like 1.6. If you don't like Brown people and you don't want to experience the sort of declining and graying population developed economies are experiencing you are probably going to push for all sorts of dumb shit rather than just make the cost of having children easier to bear. But you know brown people scary and immigrant brown people extra scary....
posted by vuron at 12:31 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
people voted for Trump because he promises to hurt the people they want hurt.
THIS.
"I have to start masking," she said
Yes. Everyone better come off as one gender or the other, and straight, and as not weird as you can manage, trying to postpone when they go after you. Heterosexual sex for ladies (the voluntary sort, anyway) should probably end. Weirdos are always first up and that's why they are here. And they won. And they outnumber us. We are the losing minority.
we do not have an effective opposition party in this country .
Yeah, this is why I keep saying "evil will always triumph because good is dumb." And now that's over. Forever. Judges, gerrymandering, everything.
Just a whole life of being a shitbag, unchecked, then dying peacefully at home while his family holds his hand.
Yup. I call that the "Andrew Jackson"
Is there a way to compromise on culture war issues? How do you compromise on who is allowed to be a person?
We can't. Hence why we are where we are.
"We are not getting this country back again."
Yes. We have lost permanently and forever now.
But JFC how can this POS have all the luck in the world!!! The fucking Epstein tapes came out a week ago and NOTHING!
The list of well everything vile he’s ever done is endless and NOTHING sticks to him. NOTHING. The gods favor Trump above all others.
Deal with the devil. Being the Antichrist. This is what God wants.
I'm just numb and hopeless now. All you can do is try to delay when they come for you now.
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:32 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
THIS.
"I have to start masking," she said
Yes. Everyone better come off as one gender or the other, and straight, and as not weird as you can manage, trying to postpone when they go after you. Heterosexual sex for ladies (the voluntary sort, anyway) should probably end. Weirdos are always first up and that's why they are here. And they won. And they outnumber us. We are the losing minority.
we do not have an effective opposition party in this country .
Yeah, this is why I keep saying "evil will always triumph because good is dumb." And now that's over. Forever. Judges, gerrymandering, everything.
Just a whole life of being a shitbag, unchecked, then dying peacefully at home while his family holds his hand.
Yup. I call that the "Andrew Jackson"
Is there a way to compromise on culture war issues? How do you compromise on who is allowed to be a person?
We can't. Hence why we are where we are.
"We are not getting this country back again."
Yes. We have lost permanently and forever now.
But JFC how can this POS have all the luck in the world!!! The fucking Epstein tapes came out a week ago and NOTHING!
The list of well everything vile he’s ever done is endless and NOTHING sticks to him. NOTHING. The gods favor Trump above all others.
Deal with the devil. Being the Antichrist. This is what God wants.
I'm just numb and hopeless now. All you can do is try to delay when they come for you now.
posted by jenfullmoon at 12:32 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I don't know how we got here but there's this consistent perception that Conservatives/Republicans are focused on the economy and don't let side issues like rights get in the way
Easy. Decades of indoctrination from the "A businessman will run it like a business" mob. One of the biggest frauds perpetuated on civilisation.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:32 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]
Easy. Decades of indoctrination from the "A businessman will run it like a business" mob. One of the biggest frauds perpetuated on civilisation.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 12:32 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]
It will be provable soon enough because at this point it seems like pro-MAGA movement women are more canny and likable than the men. Trump’s eventual successor will probably be a conservative woman.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:32 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:32 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
The way forward must include a component of attempting to improve the information ecosystem. Attempting to woo the populace with great policies or messages that are ultimately filtered through a befouled infosphere seems unlikely to succeed.
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 12:35 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 12:35 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
We always, always, always stood a much better chance of winning with a white guy than a Black / Asian woman for president
If Biden had not entered the phase of the decline he had by the debates, then maybe. That was not how it went.
Trump is melting too. Once he feels his future is secured and he's had enough Presidenting, he'll fuck off to Mar-o-Lago and we'll be dealing with Vance and the real ideological opponents.
Make the most of the Trump's time, as terrible as it will feel. It's meant to be the first act.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:35 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
If Biden had not entered the phase of the decline he had by the debates, then maybe. That was not how it went.
Trump is melting too. Once he feels his future is secured and he's had enough Presidenting, he'll fuck off to Mar-o-Lago and we'll be dealing with Vance and the real ideological opponents.
Make the most of the Trump's time, as terrible as it will feel. It's meant to be the first act.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:35 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
We are here for you jenfullmoon...
OK, not enough of us, but still.
I still have hopium that we can fight these fuckers, But, seems bad.
posted by Windopaene at 12:37 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
OK, not enough of us, but still.
I still have hopium that we can fight these fuckers, But, seems bad.
posted by Windopaene at 12:37 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I shouldn’t be trying to argue with people in the election venting thread, that’s undoubtedly a reflection of my own bad mood but
Black man, who is charismatic and intelligent but also kiiiinda right of center
since when was “kinda right of center” his image while he was running?
arguably one of the most successful administrations in U.S. history
I happen to think Biden’s administration has been fairly successful, at least domestically (and yes, actually further left than Obama in many respects) but literally any poll will tell you that this is not a popular opinion.
posted by atoxyl at 12:37 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Black man, who is charismatic and intelligent but also kiiiinda right of center
since when was “kinda right of center” his image while he was running?
arguably one of the most successful administrations in U.S. history
I happen to think Biden’s administration has been fairly successful, at least domestically (and yes, actually further left than Obama in many respects) but literally any poll will tell you that this is not a popular opinion.
posted by atoxyl at 12:37 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
How could Nikki Haley have won the Presidential race when she couldn't make it out of the primary?
In the hypothetical if Trump had actually gotten imprisoned, for instance. The greater point is inflation makes it terribly hard to run.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:39 PM on November 6
In the hypothetical if Trump had actually gotten imprisoned, for instance. The greater point is inflation makes it terribly hard to run.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:39 PM on November 6
Both Obama and Biden had exactly 2 years to get anything passed. Well, actually Obama had a lot less than that due to . . . difficulties . . . seating the 60th senator necessary to pass anything then, more like July 7, 2009, to February 4, 2010 according to chatgpt
The president, as delineated by the Constitution, doesn't have a magic fairy wand to get programs going.
posted by torokunai at 12:41 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
The president, as delineated by the Constitution, doesn't have a magic fairy wand to get programs going.
posted by torokunai at 12:41 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Living well is the best revenge. Carry on, look to your friends for support, act locally, don't let the bastards grind you down. That's my way forward. But I did just buy some scotch, too.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:42 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
posted by Artful Codger at 12:42 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
LOL how nice that the hypothetical scenario is unprovable. You can now pat yourselves and the whole country on the back door being soooo over archaic notions like racial and sexism. Who needs to talk about that nonsense!
Do you have any empirical evidence that Biden was more electable in 2024 than Harris? Biden is a mush mouth geriatic presiding over record inflation and a genocide and has a 56+ disapproval rating. There's no chance in hell he could win.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:42 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Do you have any empirical evidence that Biden was more electable in 2024 than Harris? Biden is a mush mouth geriatic presiding over record inflation and a genocide and has a 56+ disapproval rating. There's no chance in hell he could win.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:42 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
The saddest part for me is they didn't even have to steal the election. :(
posted by mazola at 12:42 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]
posted by mazola at 12:42 PM on November 6 [34 favorites]
Trump's arrogance and self-centered nature won't allow him to step aside for Vance because he's just not the sort of guy to take one for the team. Also if he steps aside nobody will continue to give his organizations legalized bribes.
25ing him would be extremely risky for republicans because he's taken on this cult of personality and people will view any attempt to replace him through that procedure as a betrayal. It would probably go over poorly.
I do think his health will probably decline enough over the next 4 years that he will eventually be replaced but I don't think it will happen on the timeline Vance and Thiel would prefer.
posted by vuron at 12:44 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
25ing him would be extremely risky for republicans because he's taken on this cult of personality and people will view any attempt to replace him through that procedure as a betrayal. It would probably go over poorly.
I do think his health will probably decline enough over the next 4 years that he will eventually be replaced but I don't think it will happen on the timeline Vance and Thiel would prefer.
posted by vuron at 12:44 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
The way forward must include a component of attempting to improve the information ecosystem. Attempting to woo the populace with great policies or messages that are ultimately filtered through a befouled infosphere seems unlikely to succeed.
I saw a tweet from some Trump campaign guy bragging that their social media operation was five guys in a room, in contrast to the presumably more professional Harris HQ. I’m not going to say the money and conventional advertising and turnout operation made no difference - as others have observed the swing states shifted red less than states that weren’t targeted - but it does feel sometimes like Dems still haven’t figured out how to do “online.” I guess Elon having his thumb on the scale probably gave them a boost their own money couldn’t buy. But I also got pretty worried by Trump going on all the podcasts that will show up as related to any “dude” topics on YouTube and I don’t know that I was wrong there.
posted by atoxyl at 12:47 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I saw a tweet from some Trump campaign guy bragging that their social media operation was five guys in a room, in contrast to the presumably more professional Harris HQ. I’m not going to say the money and conventional advertising and turnout operation made no difference - as others have observed the swing states shifted red less than states that weren’t targeted - but it does feel sometimes like Dems still haven’t figured out how to do “online.” I guess Elon having his thumb on the scale probably gave them a boost their own money couldn’t buy. But I also got pretty worried by Trump going on all the podcasts that will show up as related to any “dude” topics on YouTube and I don’t know that I was wrong there.
posted by atoxyl at 12:47 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
If you don't like Brown people and you don't want to experience the sort of declining and graying population developed economies are experiencing you are probably going to push for all sorts of dumb shit rather than just make the cost of having children easier to bear.
Hahahaha no man, they're just going to make white women bear unwanted children and gloat about it. Brown people will have significantly fewer problems getting back-alley abortions, but white women will be carefully monitored. "You're going to love being a wife and mother," says Vance. "Like it or not," he whispers.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 12:47 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Hahahaha no man, they're just going to make white women bear unwanted children and gloat about it. Brown people will have significantly fewer problems getting back-alley abortions, but white women will be carefully monitored. "You're going to love being a wife and mother," says Vance. "Like it or not," he whispers.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 12:47 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I think Josh Marshall's day after assessment captures a lot. The opening part talks about the material conditions that led to this outcome, and I think they can't be underestimated. But tne thing that stood out for me is that Trump evades norms because he is a reality TV celebrity - and that this is an essential aspect of politics now.
What is Trump’s secret power? We now have had three straight presidential elections where he managed to exceed expectations and the polls. He survives things politically no one else could. He’s survived a million things like that. What was the basis of his rise to power? It was as a reality TV star. We need to think a lot more seriously about what that means. You can combine that with the broader cult of celebrity in which he operates and excels. Things don’t stick to him or matter in the same way because a big chunk of the country sees him not as a politician but as a celebrity. We’re in a political culture where reality TV is in some sense reality. We see that in the increasingly fragmented world of social media, the openly performative nature of all of it, the visual idioms of TikTok where so many young people and communities separate from mainstream media get their news
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:48 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
What is Trump’s secret power? We now have had three straight presidential elections where he managed to exceed expectations and the polls. He survives things politically no one else could. He’s survived a million things like that. What was the basis of his rise to power? It was as a reality TV star. We need to think a lot more seriously about what that means. You can combine that with the broader cult of celebrity in which he operates and excels. Things don’t stick to him or matter in the same way because a big chunk of the country sees him not as a politician but as a celebrity. We’re in a political culture where reality TV is in some sense reality. We see that in the increasingly fragmented world of social media, the openly performative nature of all of it, the visual idioms of TikTok where so many young people and communities separate from mainstream media get their news
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:48 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Promoting lax law enforcement, you say? NBC: DOJ moving to wind down Trump criminal cases before he takes office
Do not obey in advance.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:49 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 12:49 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
If art is getting away with it, as Andy Warhol is said to have said, Trump may be America's greatest living artist.
posted by clawsoon at 12:50 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 12:50 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Like many of you, I was bullied in school, but I was "lucky" enough to deal with mental bullying, rather than physical assault. But one of the things I remember from elementary school was when Max (not his real name - okay, fine, it is his real name) would make fun of or pick on me, many other students happily joined in. Max didn't ask them to; they just did. Even in 5th or 6th grade, I remember being alarmed how quickly people were willing to let someone else do their thinking for them.
It is left as an exercise for the reader to determine why this popped into my head this morning.
posted by wittgenstein at 12:50 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]
It is left as an exercise for the reader to determine why this popped into my head this morning.
posted by wittgenstein at 12:50 PM on November 6 [25 favorites]
>presiding over record inflation
wat.
much of it was rent rises, and the rest was corporate profits. Not sure why the White House gets the blame for the bolus that hit 2022-23.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1z9UT
contrasts CPI rises with wage rises. As a home owner with $100 of medical spending since 2000 and no kids or education costs and zero clothing purchases I didn't see inflation at all, other than my biweekly fast food expense went from ~$10/day to ~$20 (I realize I am far from normal here)
posted by torokunai at 12:51 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
wat.
much of it was rent rises, and the rest was corporate profits. Not sure why the White House gets the blame for the bolus that hit 2022-23.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1z9UT
contrasts CPI rises with wage rises. As a home owner with $100 of medical spending since 2000 and no kids or education costs and zero clothing purchases I didn't see inflation at all, other than my biweekly fast food expense went from ~$10/day to ~$20 (I realize I am far from normal here)
posted by torokunai at 12:51 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
As a home owner with $100 of medical spending since 2000 and no kids or education costs and zero clothing purchases I didn't see inflation at all, other than my biweekly fast food expense went from ~$10/day to ~$20 (I realize I am far from normal here)
Did you eat any other food?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Did you eat any other food?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Now I’m wondering what if Michelle Obama had decided she wants to be in politics after all and she did run, given her very positive opinion polling. Either there was a primary or she was Biden’s vice president in 2020.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:54 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:54 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I saw a tweet from some Trump campaign guy bragging that their social media operation was five guys in a room
And a few hundred people in Russia.
posted by ElKevbo at 12:54 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]
And a few hundred people in Russia.
posted by ElKevbo at 12:54 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can; meanwhile all the brown people who will actually be subject to oppressive policies obvs can’t leave bc 1) all their families and networks are here and 2) they don’t have opportunities/networks/resources elsewhere, OR 3) they’re going to get sent BACK to “elsewhere,” which they left to come here in the first place bc of what US/imperialist policies were doing to their home.
If you’re leaving, just make sure you divest your wealth portfolios of all the opportunistic investments that are making life and the economy miserable for everyone else. Oh wait you CAN’T bc those are the only investments that make money.
posted by toodleydoodley at 12:56 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
If you’re leaving, just make sure you divest your wealth portfolios of all the opportunistic investments that are making life and the economy miserable for everyone else. Oh wait you CAN’T bc those are the only investments that make money.
posted by toodleydoodley at 12:56 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
Honestly until people see that there is an honest attempt to really return to a society where the implied promise is that your children will be more successful than you I think it's going to be a hard time regaining the trust of some of these population groups and combating the "cures" offered by right-wing demagogues.
One problem is my children will be more successful isn't going to happen in aggregate in the way it's measured today. Climate change if nothing else will mean things will get worse no matter what we do. The only control we might have is the degree of badness. No one can honestly promise things will be better.
Would love to be on a list because of something I said instead of my fucking body, thanks
Don't worry, just like the Nazis fucking coloured triangles one can be on more than one list at a time.
posted by Mitheral at 12:57 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
One problem is my children will be more successful isn't going to happen in aggregate in the way it's measured today. Climate change if nothing else will mean things will get worse no matter what we do. The only control we might have is the degree of badness. No one can honestly promise things will be better.
Would love to be on a list because of something I said instead of my fucking body, thanks
Don't worry, just like the Nazis fucking coloured triangles one can be on more than one list at a time.
posted by Mitheral at 12:57 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
>Did you eat any other food?
yeah, $200-$300/mo at Trader Joes and Whole Foods. No real big price increases there . . . I'm sure if I were a family of 4 with teenagers it'd be a much bigger hit . . . not trying to minimize "inflation" but a lot of it this decade was just the retail and real estate sector catching up on lost profits 2010-2020:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1za2D
posted by torokunai at 12:59 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
yeah, $200-$300/mo at Trader Joes and Whole Foods. No real big price increases there . . . I'm sure if I were a family of 4 with teenagers it'd be a much bigger hit . . . not trying to minimize "inflation" but a lot of it this decade was just the retail and real estate sector catching up on lost profits 2010-2020:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1za2D
posted by torokunai at 12:59 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Why would they need to use the 25th on Trump? He's going to do exactly what they want him to do. He has no interest in governing, he just wants to play golf, be vindictive to his enemies, and do petty corruption.
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 12:59 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by qxntpqbbbqxl at 12:59 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
If Gen Z broke for TFG it makes short term sense. F*ck You, I Got Mine became F*ck You I'm Gonna Get Mine. Younger generations are facing hopeless odds. Higher education puts you in massive debt, doesn't guarantee a job, debt means you can't can't buy a house, now what about a family, but why would anyone start a family while the world is burning? And there's nothing they can do about it because they have no money and have to pretend they do in order to get a date in an incredibly toxic, always on media world that distorts any sense of proportion about what's important.
So live life for the moment and turn it all to 11. It's what the media has taught us, what the businesses demand, and where we are at. Hucksters promise things they can't deliver, but at least they have promises.
It's depressing.
Voter turnout. And other things.
posted by ryoshu at 1:02 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
So live life for the moment and turn it all to 11. It's what the media has taught us, what the businesses demand, and where we are at. Hucksters promise things they can't deliver, but at least they have promises.
It's depressing.
Voter turnout. And other things.
posted by ryoshu at 1:02 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
The first woman to be President will be a Republican and her name may well be Ivanka Trunp. I mean assuming we actually have elections again where there is any chance of Republicans losing.
Cuz yeah I agree with the people who say look to Hungary for the model. It won't be an official one party state. Just no chance of the opposition ever taking power again.
As far as PoC go, the two most vocal Trumpers I know are a Colombian immigrant who hates "socialism/Communism" with a burning passion and hates illegal immigrants even more than he hates Commies. Is he a hard social conservative, of course he is.
And my brother in law, who is Black.
And my BIL has a gay son who he loves and accepts. I assume the Shirley/surely Exception is in full play there. Black BIL is a firm Christian social conservative who talks about how declining family values is a huge problem. Obviously his son is one of the good ones.
So yeah, there's definitely a tendency on the part of many white liberals and leftists to assuming PoC are vastly more progressive than they actually are.
For a while the naked racism of the Republicans kept them with the Democrats, but relentless culture warmongering from the right has convinced many that the racism is a better alternative than LGBT people existing. My BIL knows perfectly well the Republicans are racists, though he also says it's not nearly as bad as alarmists say. But for him "family values", guns, and Jesus outweigh the racism.
vuron You're forgetting Reagan and Junior. The Republicans are perfectly fine with a nakedly senile and incompetent President while real power is exercised from behind the throne.
Maybe Vance wants the spotlight but he can wait for years. Vance is assured of his place by his patrons and the fact that the VP always gets the nomination next election. He'll have four years to take whatever measures he can (and there will be lots) to make a Democratic victory impossible and take his turn in 2028.
posted by sotonohito at 1:04 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Cuz yeah I agree with the people who say look to Hungary for the model. It won't be an official one party state. Just no chance of the opposition ever taking power again.
As far as PoC go, the two most vocal Trumpers I know are a Colombian immigrant who hates "socialism/Communism" with a burning passion and hates illegal immigrants even more than he hates Commies. Is he a hard social conservative, of course he is.
And my brother in law, who is Black.
And my BIL has a gay son who he loves and accepts. I assume the Shirley/surely Exception is in full play there. Black BIL is a firm Christian social conservative who talks about how declining family values is a huge problem. Obviously his son is one of the good ones.
So yeah, there's definitely a tendency on the part of many white liberals and leftists to assuming PoC are vastly more progressive than they actually are.
For a while the naked racism of the Republicans kept them with the Democrats, but relentless culture warmongering from the right has convinced many that the racism is a better alternative than LGBT people existing. My BIL knows perfectly well the Republicans are racists, though he also says it's not nearly as bad as alarmists say. But for him "family values", guns, and Jesus outweigh the racism.
vuron You're forgetting Reagan and Junior. The Republicans are perfectly fine with a nakedly senile and incompetent President while real power is exercised from behind the throne.
Maybe Vance wants the spotlight but he can wait for years. Vance is assured of his place by his patrons and the fact that the VP always gets the nomination next election. He'll have four years to take whatever measures he can (and there will be lots) to make a Democratic victory impossible and take his turn in 2028.
posted by sotonohito at 1:04 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can; meanwhile all the brown people who will actually be subject to oppressive policies obvs can’t leave
And disabled people. No country will take us and/or we simply wouldn't physically get through the entire process.
posted by brook horse at 1:04 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
And disabled people. No country will take us and/or we simply wouldn't physically get through the entire process.
posted by brook horse at 1:04 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
If Gen Z broke for TFG
I don't think they did. In the exit polls, Harris got her highest percentage of the vote from 18-24 year-olds.
18-24: 54%
25-29: 53%
30-39: 50%
40-49: 48%
50-64: 43%
65+: 49%
posted by clawsoon at 1:06 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I don't think they did. In the exit polls, Harris got her highest percentage of the vote from 18-24 year-olds.
18-24: 54%
25-29: 53%
30-39: 50%
40-49: 48%
50-64: 43%
65+: 49%
posted by clawsoon at 1:06 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I work in and study US higher education. One of the many horrible things in Project is 2025 is the elimination of the federal Department of Education. Ending or significantly curtailing federal financial aid, especially without an orderly transition plan (and our past experience with these people tells us that there won't be a plan), would perhaps be a death knell for the United States. Hundreds of colleges and universities would immediately close, and potentially thousands more would follow shortly thereafter. Tens of thousands of people would be put out of their jobs and hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of students would be ejected from higher education with no way to get back in. Towns, cities, and states would suffer immensely; many towns would never be able to recover from losing their largest employer and suddenly having hundreds or thousands of unemployed citizens to support. And, of course, an entire generation will lose access to higher education and our nation will suffer untold harm as we become unable to sustain ourselves in a global, 21st century economy and market.
We're already seeing academic freedom being severely undermined in red states where legislatures and governors are imposing their own views on colleges and universities. Now we have to fight against this on a national scale. We're going to win some of those fights but it's infuriating that we have to spend time and energy on this when there are so many other pressing issues that require time and energy, especially climate change.
posted by ElKevbo at 1:07 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]
We're already seeing academic freedom being severely undermined in red states where legislatures and governors are imposing their own views on colleges and universities. Now we have to fight against this on a national scale. We're going to win some of those fights but it's infuriating that we have to spend time and energy on this when there are so many other pressing issues that require time and energy, especially climate change.
posted by ElKevbo at 1:07 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]
I feel the need to point out that Fox News, NewsMax, OANN, Sinclair and other far-right, wingnut tv, radio, podcast, vlogs, youtubers, Facebook and Xitter all worked collectively to normalize Trump and his antics. Then you have billionaire owned mass media both-sidesing every ounce of coverage of the GOP and bending over backwards to appear "unbiased" when what needed to be said was over and over, every single day is: Trump is a lying liar who lies and Russia and China are actively working to undermine our democracy. That is objectively true and easily proven. But most people want to be entertained, and media companies want to make money. So letting Trump, a supreme ass-clown with no shame be Trump, helped "mainstream media" (whatever that is these days) get clicks and views.
posted by pjsky at 1:07 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 1:07 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]
And a few hundred people in Russia.
I think this dismissal is missing the core of how this stuff actually works for them. There’s a whole network of homegrown propagandists ranging from amateur to professional. Some of these guys have been caught taking money from Russia, so I’m sure there are others who haven’t been caught, but they are fundamentally of the American conservative movement and more effective for it.
posted by atoxyl at 1:11 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I think this dismissal is missing the core of how this stuff actually works for them. There’s a whole network of homegrown propagandists ranging from amateur to professional. Some of these guys have been caught taking money from Russia, so I’m sure there are others who haven’t been caught, but they are fundamentally of the American conservative movement and more effective for it.
posted by atoxyl at 1:11 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can;
I find that a lot of the white people "planning" this know absolutely nothing about the countries they think would welcome them with open arms. Like, if you think Canada is a safe place, this tells me you know nothing about the current state of Canadian politics.
posted by Kitteh at 1:11 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]
I find that a lot of the white people "planning" this know absolutely nothing about the countries they think would welcome them with open arms. Like, if you think Canada is a safe place, this tells me you know nothing about the current state of Canadian politics.
posted by Kitteh at 1:11 PM on November 6 [35 favorites]
Now I’m wondering what if Michelle Obama had decided she wants to be in politics after all and she did run, given her very positive opinion polling.
Hillary Clinton was viewed positively... until she ran for president. People judge you differently when you're actually running, and running requires taking positions on issues that will inevitably tick some people off.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 1:16 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Hillary Clinton was viewed positively... until she ran for president. People judge you differently when you're actually running, and running requires taking positions on issues that will inevitably tick some people off.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 1:16 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can; meanwhile all the brown people who will actually be subject to oppressive policies obvs can’t leave
Don't worry 99% of the white people aren't going anywhere either. They didn't in 2016 and they aren't now, because emigrating is really fucking hard if you want to actually do it right and legally. Unless you're exceptionally skilled in a niche that a country needs, currently accepting a job in that country, already married to a citizen of that country, or otherwise independently wealthy you probably ain't goin nowhere bub.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:17 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]
Don't worry 99% of the white people aren't going anywhere either. They didn't in 2016 and they aren't now, because emigrating is really fucking hard if you want to actually do it right and legally. Unless you're exceptionally skilled in a niche that a country needs, currently accepting a job in that country, already married to a citizen of that country, or otherwise independently wealthy you probably ain't goin nowhere bub.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:17 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]
I work in and study US higher education. One of the many horrible things in Project is 2025 is the elimination of the federal Department of Education. Ending or significantly curtailing federal financial aid, especially without an orderly transition plan (and our past experience with these people tells us that there won't be a plan),
The big danger here is Elon Musk, not anyone else - he's too stupid to reason about these things and too rich to have anyone put the arm on him, and if he decides we don't have a DOE tomorrow he'll just fire everyone immediately.
That said, assuming he isn't literally in charge - and I truly do not mean to brightside any of this - American elites use colleges and universities for credientialing and training and prestige. Private lenders make a lot of money on student loans and probably have massive business plans about it covering the next twenty years. There's massive profits in education. And there's sports! I have no doubt that extremely bad things are coming in education, but the immediate collapse of the university system doesn't seem to me to be on the cards. Things will certainly worsen and there's going to be big effects from, eg, accelerated closure of humanities programs, but think of it this way - they want colleges and universities to be their propaganda arm/cash cow, so we're looking at a Florida scenario more than anything else. Probably "no federal funding unless you get rid of [any program that smacks of liberalism] and maybe a few other bad conditions". So bad enough, but not quite that bad.
posted by Frowner at 1:19 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
The big danger here is Elon Musk, not anyone else - he's too stupid to reason about these things and too rich to have anyone put the arm on him, and if he decides we don't have a DOE tomorrow he'll just fire everyone immediately.
That said, assuming he isn't literally in charge - and I truly do not mean to brightside any of this - American elites use colleges and universities for credientialing and training and prestige. Private lenders make a lot of money on student loans and probably have massive business plans about it covering the next twenty years. There's massive profits in education. And there's sports! I have no doubt that extremely bad things are coming in education, but the immediate collapse of the university system doesn't seem to me to be on the cards. Things will certainly worsen and there's going to be big effects from, eg, accelerated closure of humanities programs, but think of it this way - they want colleges and universities to be their propaganda arm/cash cow, so we're looking at a Florida scenario more than anything else. Probably "no federal funding unless you get rid of [any program that smacks of liberalism] and maybe a few other bad conditions". So bad enough, but not quite that bad.
posted by Frowner at 1:19 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
ryoshu: "If Gen Z broke for TFG it makes short term sense. F*ck You, I Got Mine became F*ck You I'm Gonna Get Mine. Younger generations are facing hopeless odds. Higher education puts you in massive debt, doesn't guarantee a job, debt means you can't can't buy a house, now what about a family, but why would anyone start a family while the world is burning? And there's nothing they can do about it because they have no money and have to pretend they do in order to get a date in an incredibly toxic, always on media world that distorts any sense of proportion about what's important.
So live life for the moment and turn it all to 11. It's what the media has taught us, what the businesses demand, and where we are at. Hucksters promise things they can't deliver, but at least they have promises.
It's depressing.
Voter turnout. And other things."
Funny, I got a text from my GenZ child this morning. They simply wrote:
"I have no hope for the future now."
And all I can think about is how this is all going to shake out for them, and my other kid, and my partner's two children, and my poc/queer/nonbinary/trans coworkers and family members and neighbors, and we're all now standing in the headlight of the oncoming train- even the fuckers who voted for TFG, even if they don't realize it it's coming straight for all of us... simply because "I'm Gonna Get Mine (Before the train hits me)". I'm a white, straight, 50 year old guy and... leave? Where the hell would I go? The world in totes is fucked at this point, there's no safe haven and I can't even tell my kids which way to run.
Hamilton Nolan sums it up pretty succinctly for me:
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard,” wrote American journalist H.L. Mencken in 1916.
...She was not running against an unknown quantity. She was running against a man that everyone knows too well, a former president whose term we all lived through, a public figure for decades, a man who has not stopped talking for a moment since the 1980s. She was running against a man who lies constantly and is plainly racist and cannot speak a coherent paragraph and has insulted in personal terms the demographic groups covering the majority of the population. People know who she was running against. They know exactly who he is. Most people, it turns out, just prefer him. That is what they like.
posted by 40 Watt at 1:19 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]
So live life for the moment and turn it all to 11. It's what the media has taught us, what the businesses demand, and where we are at. Hucksters promise things they can't deliver, but at least they have promises.
It's depressing.
Voter turnout. And other things."
Funny, I got a text from my GenZ child this morning. They simply wrote:
"I have no hope for the future now."
And all I can think about is how this is all going to shake out for them, and my other kid, and my partner's two children, and my poc/queer/nonbinary/trans coworkers and family members and neighbors, and we're all now standing in the headlight of the oncoming train- even the fuckers who voted for TFG, even if they don't realize it it's coming straight for all of us... simply because "I'm Gonna Get Mine (Before the train hits me)". I'm a white, straight, 50 year old guy and... leave? Where the hell would I go? The world in totes is fucked at this point, there's no safe haven and I can't even tell my kids which way to run.
Hamilton Nolan sums it up pretty succinctly for me:
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard,” wrote American journalist H.L. Mencken in 1916.
...She was not running against an unknown quantity. She was running against a man that everyone knows too well, a former president whose term we all lived through, a public figure for decades, a man who has not stopped talking for a moment since the 1980s. She was running against a man who lies constantly and is plainly racist and cannot speak a coherent paragraph and has insulted in personal terms the demographic groups covering the majority of the population. People know who she was running against. They know exactly who he is. Most people, it turns out, just prefer him. That is what they like.
posted by 40 Watt at 1:19 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]
I am also in .edu. The rich schools don't sweat federal financial aid like small schools do, and many little colleges really would shut down without it.
They are Division III, though, so no one will care in sports-addled America....aside from the communities that depend on them.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:23 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
They are Division III, though, so no one will care in sports-addled America....aside from the communities that depend on them.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:23 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Yes, plainly, the people who preferred him outnumbered us. That's the crux of it.
posted by ichomp at 1:23 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 1:23 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Excerpt from interview with Adm. James Stockdale about his time as a Vietnam POW:
“I never lost faith in the end of the story,” he said, when I asked him. “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 1:25 PM on November 6 [88 favorites]
I didn’t say anything for many minutes, and we continued the slow walk toward the faculty club, Stockdale limping and arc-swinging his stiff leg that had never fully recovered from repeated torture. Finally, after about a hundred meters of silence, I asked, “Who didn’t make it out?”
“Oh, that’s easy,” he said. “The optimists.”
“The optimists? I don’t understand,” I said, now completely confused, given what he’d said a hundred meters earlier.
“The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.”
Another long pause, and more walking. Then he turned to me and said, “This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
most people want to be entertained, and media companies want to make money
The New York Times is behind a paywall. Fox News isn’t. That’s no accident.
posted by corb at 1:26 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]
The New York Times is behind a paywall. Fox News isn’t. That’s no accident.
posted by corb at 1:26 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]
Hillary Clinton was viewed positively... until she ran for president.
😆
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:28 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
😆
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:28 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
40 Watt: "And all I can think about is how this is all going to shake out for them, and my other kid, and my partner's two children, and my poc/queer/nonbinary/trans coworkers and family members and neighbors, and we're all now standing in the headlight of the oncoming train- even the fuckers who voted for TFG, even if they don't realize it it's coming straight for all of us... simply because "I'm Gonna Get Mine (Before the train hits me)". "
"Global warming. Some say irreversible consequences are thirty years away. Thirty years? That won't affect me."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
"Global warming. Some say irreversible consequences are thirty years away. Thirty years? That won't affect me."
posted by Rhaomi at 1:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
"The light of America's promise will always burn bright, as long as we never give up and as long as we keep fighting," is a weird damn thing to say when you're conceding.
posted by mittens at 1:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by mittens at 1:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
The concession speech was worth watching. Thanks for posting the link, swift.
posted by mochapickle at 1:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by mochapickle at 1:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Fnord more years...
posted by Marky at 1:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Marky at 1:39 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
>the people who preferred him outnumbered us
The Game 5 World Series ad I saw said: "She's for they/them. He's for you."
fuckin' deadly.
posted by torokunai at 1:39 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
The Game 5 World Series ad I saw said: "She's for they/them. He's for you."
fuckin' deadly.
posted by torokunai at 1:39 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
Funny, I got a text from my GenZ child this morning. They simply wrote: "I have no hope for the future now."
There's a lot of ways life now seems similar to life in the early/mid 1930s, and I don't relish the opportunity to live through whatever our equivalent of the second world war will be.
And, yeah, an awful lot of people who were young in 1932 didn't have a future anyone would hope for.
But... some of them did, and a lot of the survivors got to go through that huge burst of prosperity and rebuilding and, in so many ways, vibrant life. A lot of them watched people walk on the moon.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:39 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
There's a lot of ways life now seems similar to life in the early/mid 1930s, and I don't relish the opportunity to live through whatever our equivalent of the second world war will be.
And, yeah, an awful lot of people who were young in 1932 didn't have a future anyone would hope for.
But... some of them did, and a lot of the survivors got to go through that huge burst of prosperity and rebuilding and, in so many ways, vibrant life. A lot of them watched people walk on the moon.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:39 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I find that a lot of the white people "planning" this know absolutely nothing about the countries they think would welcome them with open arms
I have twice now (before this actual election) had a friend or family member mention the idea of moving to Italy if Trump won and it’s just - you sure about that? Not about not being welcomed per se in these cases but - that’s the country you want to count on as a political refuge?
posted by atoxyl at 1:42 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
I have twice now (before this actual election) had a friend or family member mention the idea of moving to Italy if Trump won and it’s just - you sure about that? Not about not being welcomed per se in these cases but - that’s the country you want to count on as a political refuge?
posted by atoxyl at 1:42 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
is a weird damn thing to say when you're conceding
Pointing out a lost battle is not the greater war is an excellent message!
posted by Apocryphon at 1:43 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]
Pointing out a lost battle is not the greater war is an excellent message!
posted by Apocryphon at 1:43 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]
>so we're looking at a Florida scenario more than anything else.
if you're trying to cheer us up you're not doing all that great a job at it
posted by torokunai at 1:44 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
if you're trying to cheer us up you're not doing all that great a job at it
posted by torokunai at 1:44 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
There's a lot of ways life now seems similar to life in the early/mid 1930s, and I don't relish the opportunity to live through whatever our equivalent of the second world war will be.
The end of the '70s might be a good parallel, too... a period of monetary inflation and sexual revolution, followed by a reactionary alliance between Evangelicals and a right-wing celebrity president who's bullish on capitalism.
posted by clawsoon at 1:47 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
The end of the '70s might be a good parallel, too... a period of monetary inflation and sexual revolution, followed by a reactionary alliance between Evangelicals and a right-wing celebrity president who's bullish on capitalism.
posted by clawsoon at 1:47 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
People who just decide to move to a different country often find it hard.
posted by grumpybear69 at 1:53 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by grumpybear69 at 1:53 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I can't bring myself to watch the concession speech. I have always been a little cynical whenever politicians claim "America is the greatest country in the world! The land of promise and opportunity! The greatest democracy every imagined!" Blah, blah, blah. Bullshit. We live on blood soaked stolen land, built our economy with stolen labor and breathlessly congratulate ourselves for being God Fearing Patriots all the while building up an arsenal big enough to destroy the entirety of God's precious creation multiple times. America is a good idea. But we've never lived up to it's promise, and now it seems we've completely abandoned it. If the election was stolen I would feel compelled to fight. But if the majority of Americans are ok with a Christo-Fascist Theocracy run by oligarchs .... F u u u u c c c k. (insert sound of a soul crushing scream here) But, sincerely, thank you MeFi for giving me a place to visit today. To listen to other's thoughts, to speculate on how this atrocity happened and mostly to commiserate. Thank you for being here and giving me space to collectively grieve, bitch and moan. I appreciate y'all.
posted by pjsky at 1:57 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]
posted by pjsky at 1:57 PM on November 6 [21 favorites]
I've said it before here, but I moved from the US to Germany right after and because W got reelected. I went through the processes and got the permission and permit and maintained it for years and everything. I'll maybe do it again. I know all about the privilege I have that I can even consider that and how I look and speak like I'm from there. And I have knowledge of a process that I know changed after I returned, well into Obama's first term.
So it can be done. And it gets done all the time.
posted by Snowishberlin at 2:01 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
So it can be done. And it gets done all the time.
posted by Snowishberlin at 2:01 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I find that a lot of the white people "planning" this know absolutely nothing about the countries they think would welcome them with open arms
Yeah, on some level I get the sentiment behind this and similar statements, but I urge folks to remember that:
1) Some of the white people "planning" such moves are simply indulging in wishful thinking, no different than when they talk about what they'd do if they won a million dollars in the lottery. Give them credit for, deep inside, knowing that it's not going to happen and for knowing that it would not be all wine and roses even if it did.
2) Some of the white people saying it are not white in a way that's going to save them from Trump and the Republicans, and they, again, know full well that it's not all wine and roses; they aren't looking for a perfect place, they're looking for any place that's even the least bit better than what America promises to be under Trump.
3) Some of them are indeed white in a way that keeps them safe (for a little while) from Trump, but they have loved ones who are squarely in the sights of Trump and the ethnofascist theocratic oligarchs. And so when they say "they" are going to leave the US, what they mean is "I wish there was some way to move my loved ones out of the US to a country that isn't actively trying to harm them" -- eg, they want to move there first and start a safe haven to bring their at-risk loved ones over.
I mean, at least that's what I'm seeing. And while I know a lot of white people, I don't know them all. So, yeah, some are surely saying things about moving in ways that are whiningly self-indulgent and breathtakingly ignorant.
But the ones I'm seeing in my social circle? Yeah, they don't know a thing about Spain, Mexico, Greece, Indonesia, Canada, Italy, the UK, etc. But they're frightened as fuck for themselves and their loved ones, and they know no help is coming.
Please, be kinder to them because kindness to those who are truly hurting is the only shot we have at making it through this bullshit.
posted by lord_wolf at 2:02 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]
Yeah, on some level I get the sentiment behind this and similar statements, but I urge folks to remember that:
1) Some of the white people "planning" such moves are simply indulging in wishful thinking, no different than when they talk about what they'd do if they won a million dollars in the lottery. Give them credit for, deep inside, knowing that it's not going to happen and for knowing that it would not be all wine and roses even if it did.
2) Some of the white people saying it are not white in a way that's going to save them from Trump and the Republicans, and they, again, know full well that it's not all wine and roses; they aren't looking for a perfect place, they're looking for any place that's even the least bit better than what America promises to be under Trump.
3) Some of them are indeed white in a way that keeps them safe (for a little while) from Trump, but they have loved ones who are squarely in the sights of Trump and the ethnofascist theocratic oligarchs. And so when they say "they" are going to leave the US, what they mean is "I wish there was some way to move my loved ones out of the US to a country that isn't actively trying to harm them" -- eg, they want to move there first and start a safe haven to bring their at-risk loved ones over.
I mean, at least that's what I'm seeing. And while I know a lot of white people, I don't know them all. So, yeah, some are surely saying things about moving in ways that are whiningly self-indulgent and breathtakingly ignorant.
But the ones I'm seeing in my social circle? Yeah, they don't know a thing about Spain, Mexico, Greece, Indonesia, Canada, Italy, the UK, etc. But they're frightened as fuck for themselves and their loved ones, and they know no help is coming.
Please, be kinder to them because kindness to those who are truly hurting is the only shot we have at making it through this bullshit.
posted by lord_wolf at 2:02 PM on November 6 [26 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can; meanwhile all the brown people who will actually be subject to oppressive policies obvs can’t leave
The one and only person I know who I heard talking about leaving if Trump won was an African-American man.
Please don't use "white" as a shorthand for "wealthy and privileged", not all of us are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:12 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
The one and only person I know who I heard talking about leaving if Trump won was an African-American man.
Please don't use "white" as a shorthand for "wealthy and privileged", not all of us are.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:12 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
Alexandra Petri, WaPo: Oh, so we have to keep doing this forever One must imagine Sisyphus exhausted.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:13 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:13 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
From the concession speech:
"The adage is, 'Only when it is dark enough, can you see the stars.' I know many people feel we are entering a dark time. But for the benefit of us all, I hope that is not the case. But here's the thing, America if it is, let us fill the sky with the light of a billion brilliant stars, the light of optimism, of faith, of truth, and service."
--
I've been thinking hard recently about leaving a software job to become a public school teacher. The financial numbers make no sense and I worry what hardships it will put on my family. But fuck it, I'm going to do it. (sorry for making this about me, but I've been looking for a kick in the ass to get me over the fears I have, and apparently this concession speech is going to be it)
posted by jermsplan at 2:14 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]
"The adage is, 'Only when it is dark enough, can you see the stars.' I know many people feel we are entering a dark time. But for the benefit of us all, I hope that is not the case. But here's the thing, America if it is, let us fill the sky with the light of a billion brilliant stars, the light of optimism, of faith, of truth, and service."
--
I've been thinking hard recently about leaving a software job to become a public school teacher. The financial numbers make no sense and I worry what hardships it will put on my family. But fuck it, I'm going to do it. (sorry for making this about me, but I've been looking for a kick in the ass to get me over the fears I have, and apparently this concession speech is going to be it)
posted by jermsplan at 2:14 PM on November 6 [29 favorites]
Couple of bits about the intersectionality of Trump voters:
Anatomy of three Trump elections: How Americans shifted in 2024 vs. 2020 and 2016 (CNN exit polling):
Owen Jones:
posted by Apocryphon at 2:16 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Anatomy of three Trump elections: How Americans shifted in 2024 vs. 2020 and 2016 (CNN exit polling):
Latino men embraced Trump
Latino voters, and men in particular, have been moving toward Trump since 2016. This year, Latino men broke in his direction for the first time. Biden won their support by 23 points in 2020 and Trump won them in 2024. Latina women still favored Harris, but by smaller margins than they supported either Clinton or Biden.
Harris maintained strong leads among Black men and women. Trump’s lead among White men shrank.
Younger voters shifted toward Trump, while he lost ground with senior voters
Democrats lost some support among the youngest voters, a group that overwhelmingly votes for them. But Harris also made gains among the oldest voters, a group that traditionally leans Republican. It’s an interesting shift.
More Americans support abortion rights
One story these charts don’t fully tell is how the abortion conversation has changed. In 2016, Roe v. Wade guaranteed every American woman a constitutional right to an abortion. In 2024, that federal right is gone, taken away by a conservative majority Trump helped seat on the Supreme Court. In 2020, about half of Americans said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. In 2024, it’s about two-thirds of Americans who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But they didn’t necessarily tie that support to their vote for president. About half of people who say abortion should be legal in most cases supported Trump.
Owen Jones:
I’m going back to my hotel in New York.P J:
With a Muslim Pakistani American cab driver… who voted for Donald Trump because “the prices were too high” under Biden
My mom say her workplace, supermajority women nurses of color (Filipino, Mexican, etc), were very excited about Trump.The last one has no additional details to back up their anecdote, but I'd be curious to hear if anyone else witnessed a similar phenomenon.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:16 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
For any talk of people voting for trump having some moment of shock or awareness when things fall apart or their lives are made materially worse, I’m sorry, but that’s just not going to help. Any halfway competent fascist follow up to trump will just blame their followers pain on any number of convenient scapegoats. It’s how the playbook works. Bad times? Not the strongman’s fault! Must be those (insert useful scapegoat here) that did it.
It’s prettt simple:
Leopard, eating a face.
Leopard follower: why did you eat my face?
Leopard: Me? (Savoring the lips and eyelids) *I* didn’t eat your face. It was the immigrants. They’re eating all the faces.
Leopard follower, a mass of blood and tissue where their face used to be: “this guy tells it like it is!”
posted by Ghidorah at 2:26 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]
It’s prettt simple:
Leopard, eating a face.
Leopard follower: why did you eat my face?
Leopard: Me? (Savoring the lips and eyelids) *I* didn’t eat your face. It was the immigrants. They’re eating all the faces.
Leopard follower, a mass of blood and tissue where their face used to be: “this guy tells it like it is!”
posted by Ghidorah at 2:26 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]
Some rambling words of advice to the Democratic party leadership left to fester here:
* Don't run toward the center. You'll never get credit for it.
* People hate identity politics. Find a better way to do it without compromising those values.
* Despite protestations for civility, everyone likes a fighter.
* If the words "Cheney" or "Clinton" ever exit your mouth again, wash it out with soap.
posted by Room 101 at 2:26 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
* Don't run toward the center. You'll never get credit for it.
* People hate identity politics. Find a better way to do it without compromising those values.
* Despite protestations for civility, everyone likes a fighter.
* If the words "Cheney" or "Clinton" ever exit your mouth again, wash it out with soap.
posted by Room 101 at 2:26 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Yes it's all over the place. I know many highly educated people of color/immigrants who think Trump is going to fix things. Literally everything I heard from people who voted for him is enthusiam for fighting inflation and stopping immigrants from raping/pillaging. The information environment is more bonkers than any previous election. The democrats have not bothered addressing the fundamental issue the media environment is not in the favor and they don't bother competing for every vote. The republicans have no shame in targeting POC and straight up lying to their faces. I want to shoot my self everytime I hear he is a good businessman.
Also in general self care notes. I recently learned EFT(SLYT) which seems like one of the most bullshit things, but really helps dealing with emotions that are so overwhelming you can not process. It's helped me and my wife get through this a bunch of other stressful things recently.
posted by roguewraith at 2:27 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
Also in general self care notes. I recently learned EFT(SLYT) which seems like one of the most bullshit things, but really helps dealing with emotions that are so overwhelming you can not process. It's helped me and my wife get through this a bunch of other stressful things recently.
posted by roguewraith at 2:27 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
CBS emerges from a year-long slumber and notes: "As President-elect Donald Trump readies to return to the Oval Office, U.S. retailers that depend on foreign suppliers are prepared to pass along the cost of his proposed import tariffs to consumers, potentially leading to higher prices for a range of products."
Good thing irony is edible!
posted by mittens at 2:27 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
Good thing irony is edible!
posted by mittens at 2:27 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
When I was a teen, my mom used to encourage my little sister (and thereby divide the family across gender lines) by telling her, "Girls are up! Boys are down!" There are several old family photos of my toddler-ish sister, arms raised and laughing, and I remember what my photographer mom was doing and saying in order to get that reaction out of her. She would briefly get this confused look on her face whenever I told her I agreed with her about the importance of supporting girls and women.
The thing is, my mom was all talk in that regard. She voted for president Boys Are Up twice, and I'm positive she would have done so a third time if she had made it this long (she died a couple months before Biden withdrew from the race.)
I didn't get to call family joyously this morning to tell them "girls are up," nor did I get a chance to tell my mom, "Huh, I guess boys are up after all." I've just been in a daze all day.
posted by emelenjr at 2:29 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
The thing is, my mom was all talk in that regard. She voted for president Boys Are Up twice, and I'm positive she would have done so a third time if she had made it this long (she died a couple months before Biden withdrew from the race.)
I didn't get to call family joyously this morning to tell them "girls are up," nor did I get a chance to tell my mom, "Huh, I guess boys are up after all." I've just been in a daze all day.
posted by emelenjr at 2:29 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
The democrats have not bothered addressing the fundamental issue the media environment is not in the favor
The trouble is, it's genuinely a huge problem, but no one has found anything that works. Air America petered out, and so has every similar attempt since. We have a few big podcasts, but the podcast world is dominated by the right wing, just like talk radio was. It's clear that the old guard "liberal media" has an editorial thumb on the scale in favor of Trumpian ideas. And trying to go the same (enticing) conspiracy-thinking route just makes people vulnerable to swinging rightwards, because they have enticing conspiracy theories too. I don't know how we solve this.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 2:32 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]
The trouble is, it's genuinely a huge problem, but no one has found anything that works. Air America petered out, and so has every similar attempt since. We have a few big podcasts, but the podcast world is dominated by the right wing, just like talk radio was. It's clear that the old guard "liberal media" has an editorial thumb on the scale in favor of Trumpian ideas. And trying to go the same (enticing) conspiracy-thinking route just makes people vulnerable to swinging rightwards, because they have enticing conspiracy theories too. I don't know how we solve this.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 2:32 PM on November 6 [22 favorites]
>So yeah, there's definitely a tendency on the part of many white liberals and leftists to assuming PoC are vastly more progressive than they actually are.
To these white liberals, every PoC is a Frantz Fanon. Politically enlightened, stridently leftist, hardcore. The PoC is an empty vessel into which white liberals project their daydreams, fantasies and desires. In doing so, the individuality of the PoC--their hopes and dreams, their beliefs about the economy and capitalism, their religiosity and spirituality--are erased from view.
The Latino and Latina exodus to Trump and the Republicans was a thing and contributed greatly to their respective victories. How will this be parsed by the liberal post mortem on the election? As false consciousness?
posted by Gordion Knott at 2:38 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
To these white liberals, every PoC is a Frantz Fanon. Politically enlightened, stridently leftist, hardcore. The PoC is an empty vessel into which white liberals project their daydreams, fantasies and desires. In doing so, the individuality of the PoC--their hopes and dreams, their beliefs about the economy and capitalism, their religiosity and spirituality--are erased from view.
The Latino and Latina exodus to Trump and the Republicans was a thing and contributed greatly to their respective victories. How will this be parsed by the liberal post mortem on the election? As false consciousness?
posted by Gordion Knott at 2:38 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
I know many highly educated people of color/immigrants who think Trump is going to fix things.
Two of the biggest right wing people I know are a guy whose parents came here from Brazil in the 1990s, pregnant with him and gave birth in America shortly after arrival (if only the Rs had a name for him...hmmm) and the other is married to an immigrant, and whose non-english-speaking mother-in-law "lives" here (except for when she goes back to her home country to 'visit', i.e. renew her visa because she's not really allowed to live here, just visit) and I don't think he realizes how likely she won't be allowed back the next time she leaves.
[gif of Mugatu screaming about crazy pills]
posted by AzraelBrown at 2:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Two of the biggest right wing people I know are a guy whose parents came here from Brazil in the 1990s, pregnant with him and gave birth in America shortly after arrival (if only the Rs had a name for him...hmmm) and the other is married to an immigrant, and whose non-english-speaking mother-in-law "lives" here (except for when she goes back to her home country to 'visit', i.e. renew her visa because she's not really allowed to live here, just visit) and I don't think he realizes how likely she won't be allowed back the next time she leaves.
[gif of Mugatu screaming about crazy pills]
posted by AzraelBrown at 2:39 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
People hate identity politics. Find a better way to do it without compromising those values.
I struggle with this one a bit, because I'm not sure the Democrats are subtle enough to realize what's disliked here is the corporate-consultant allyship feeling of this particular implementation of identity politics, and the risk is, they decide to start throwing people under the bus. Or...hell, maybe I'm wrong, and voters are actually eager for the Democrats to start throwing.
posted by mittens at 2:40 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
I struggle with this one a bit, because I'm not sure the Democrats are subtle enough to realize what's disliked here is the corporate-consultant allyship feeling of this particular implementation of identity politics, and the risk is, they decide to start throwing people under the bus. Or...hell, maybe I'm wrong, and voters are actually eager for the Democrats to start throwing.
posted by mittens at 2:40 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can
White folks are generally delusional when they suppose they can just emigrate. Unless they're rich or they have a job that facilitates it, emigrating is hard to do and mostly only works if you're retreating to a place where you once lived or still have connections. Even if you have that connection, it's hard to pull off. One or both of you may not be able to find much work. Oh and by the way, most countries that are affordable are shitshows politically and most countries with progressive politics are expensive as hell.
I mean, we may be able to move to Romania, because that's where Comrade Doll is from. But Romania is one of the poorest and most infamously corrupt countries in Europe. It would only really be to our benefit if we could go over with enough cash in hand to retire, which--while it would cost far less than here--is an amount of money we do not have. Otherwise, it's just moving away from shitty politics to get to shittier politics, without jobs. And probably sharing a studio apartment.
(The only way you move somewhere like Romania or Italy, as mentioned above, is if you move with enough cash to count as affluent in that place, such that the shit wouldn't stick to you. That's what it is about: not finding refuge, so much as finding a place where the exchange rate lets you buy yourself some leave-me-the-fuck-alone you couldn't afford in the US. You have to have enough money to start a business or at least semi-retire.)
Other EU countries would let us live there via her EU passport, but CD would have to work to support us both, because I couldn't work on a spouse visa. I'd need to get a Romanian passport, for which I'd need to learn fluent Romanian.
Oh, and by the way, next door, Ukraine is at war and Trump is probably going to leave them twisting in the wind. So there's that.
And ours is one of the most practical "escape to another country" plans of anyone we know. Like, this is one of the more workable ones.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:45 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
White folks are generally delusional when they suppose they can just emigrate. Unless they're rich or they have a job that facilitates it, emigrating is hard to do and mostly only works if you're retreating to a place where you once lived or still have connections. Even if you have that connection, it's hard to pull off. One or both of you may not be able to find much work. Oh and by the way, most countries that are affordable are shitshows politically and most countries with progressive politics are expensive as hell.
I mean, we may be able to move to Romania, because that's where Comrade Doll is from. But Romania is one of the poorest and most infamously corrupt countries in Europe. It would only really be to our benefit if we could go over with enough cash in hand to retire, which--while it would cost far less than here--is an amount of money we do not have. Otherwise, it's just moving away from shitty politics to get to shittier politics, without jobs. And probably sharing a studio apartment.
(The only way you move somewhere like Romania or Italy, as mentioned above, is if you move with enough cash to count as affluent in that place, such that the shit wouldn't stick to you. That's what it is about: not finding refuge, so much as finding a place where the exchange rate lets you buy yourself some leave-me-the-fuck-alone you couldn't afford in the US. You have to have enough money to start a business or at least semi-retire.)
Other EU countries would let us live there via her EU passport, but CD would have to work to support us both, because I couldn't work on a spouse visa. I'd need to get a Romanian passport, for which I'd need to learn fluent Romanian.
Oh, and by the way, next door, Ukraine is at war and Trump is probably going to leave them twisting in the wind. So there's that.
And ours is one of the most practical "escape to another country" plans of anyone we know. Like, this is one of the more workable ones.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:45 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Well, I successfully defused a bunch of leftist infighting about whose fault it is Harris lost (in an international Discord server, no less) by posting a picture of Eric Hovde, who has just lost his Wisconsin Senate race by 0.9%. It started by comparison to Doug Dimmadome and has devolved into "YOU HAVE NO CATTLE. NO RODEO EXPERIENCE. NO BLUE RIBBONS." It goes on from there as I now speak.
So I guess hot tip for the next time we need to come together, Eric Hovde's cowboy bank ads are right there.
posted by brook horse at 2:52 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
So I guess hot tip for the next time we need to come together, Eric Hovde's cowboy bank ads are right there.
posted by brook horse at 2:52 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
>White folks are generally delusional when they suppose they can just emigrate.
It's the ultimate in misconceived, living-in-a-bubble white American pipe dreams. "I'll move abroad. As an American, they'll welcome me with open arms. Everybody will address me in perfect English, having acquired it in school. Landlords will open the doors of their flats and apartments. Tradespeople will grant me discounts on goods. I'll make a shitload of friends. Paradise."
The cold reality is that textbook English doesn't equate to comprehension, and the new arrival will be linguistically flummoxed from the get-go. Their clothing will be seen as garish. Their behavior as uncouth and ugly American in essence. Without linguistic proficiency, they'll be shunted to the margin of society. Their days and nights will be spent in foreigner-oriented bars, drinking with other Americans and kvetching about their culture shock.
This picture is drawn by thousands of naive Americans migrating to countries in Asia, Africa and Europe every year, independent of their political stripe.
posted by Gordion Knott at 2:54 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
It's the ultimate in misconceived, living-in-a-bubble white American pipe dreams. "I'll move abroad. As an American, they'll welcome me with open arms. Everybody will address me in perfect English, having acquired it in school. Landlords will open the doors of their flats and apartments. Tradespeople will grant me discounts on goods. I'll make a shitload of friends. Paradise."
The cold reality is that textbook English doesn't equate to comprehension, and the new arrival will be linguistically flummoxed from the get-go. Their clothing will be seen as garish. Their behavior as uncouth and ugly American in essence. Without linguistic proficiency, they'll be shunted to the margin of society. Their days and nights will be spent in foreigner-oriented bars, drinking with other Americans and kvetching about their culture shock.
This picture is drawn by thousands of naive Americans migrating to countries in Asia, Africa and Europe every year, independent of their political stripe.
posted by Gordion Knott at 2:54 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I told my students, my Black and brown students, my Temporary Protected Status, DACA, and refugee students, my trans and non-binary students, my disabled students, my students exploring their sexuality and gender for the first time, my veteran students, my students who are parents, my beloved students, I told them I know many of them are too young to really remember what happened 8 years ago, that I don't know what's going to happen, but last time it was bad, and I think it's going to be bad for many of us this time too. But I am a safe person for them to come to regardless of the race, ethnicity, religion, immigration status, gender identity, sexual orientation, disability, or who they voted for yesterday, if they or someone they love is in trouble, needs help, I will do everything I can to help them. And I didn't cry, because they need me not to cry, but I am so damn scared for them.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:55 PM on November 6 [52 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 2:55 PM on November 6 [52 favorites]
And ours is one of the most practical "escape to another country" plans of anyone we know. Like, this is one of the more workable ones.
My SO's parents had plenty of foresight, so she can fuck off to the EU country of her choosing any time she feels like it. Or her non-EU country of birth if she wants a lower cost of living. (Yes, she has/probably needs to renew three passports)
Somehow, I don't think she will. She's stubborn. The US is her home, for better or for worse. As my boss said when I spoke with him earlier, we keep on keeping on, making sure everything is in order for when better days finally arrive. He's older than Biden (and is, frankly, a large part of why "but so old" complaints about Biden just pissed me off), so he's seen some shit.
posted by wierdo at 3:06 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
My SO's parents had plenty of foresight, so she can fuck off to the EU country of her choosing any time she feels like it. Or her non-EU country of birth if she wants a lower cost of living. (Yes, she has/probably needs to renew three passports)
Somehow, I don't think she will. She's stubborn. The US is her home, for better or for worse. As my boss said when I spoke with him earlier, we keep on keeping on, making sure everything is in order for when better days finally arrive. He's older than Biden (and is, frankly, a large part of why "but so old" complaints about Biden just pissed me off), so he's seen some shit.
posted by wierdo at 3:06 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
It's the ultimate in misconceived, living-in-a-bubble white American pipe dreams.
Not to mention, the far right parties are kind of gaining traction everywhere.
posted by iamck at 3:09 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Not to mention, the far right parties are kind of gaining traction everywhere.
posted by iamck at 3:09 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
This picture is drawn by thousands of naive Americans migrating to countries in Asia, Africa and Europe
The sort of colonialist/perma-tourist migration is gross.
But even the "maybe we try it back in the home country" plan has its challenges, as I described.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 3:11 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
The sort of colonialist/perma-tourist migration is gross.
But even the "maybe we try it back in the home country" plan has its challenges, as I described.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 3:11 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I struggle with this one a bit, because I'm not sure the Democrats are subtle enough to realize what's disliked here is the corporate-consultant allyship feeling of this particular implementation of identity politics
Well also “identity politics” is a broad term and everybody clearly does it sometimes and succeeds with it sometimes. One version of the take that I think is correct is that the pure representation/affinity approach can only be stretched so far, but that’s a lesson people were already starting to learn a few years ago - Harris clearly got the message and went pretty light on, say, appealing to how many demographic firsts she checks off.
Framing programs as uplift for specific groups also feels like it’s often a loser - unpopular in principle with everyone else while frequently underwhelming in substance for the targeted demographic.
Another is just - “demographics is destiny” only goes so far, and that especially goes for a heterogeneous group like “Latinos. ” Which feels almost like a reversion to the way things were understood 20 years ago, the first time Republicans touched 40 percent with Latinos, though it’s not a mystery why the category became increasingly racialized during Trump’s first run…
posted by atoxyl at 3:11 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Well also “identity politics” is a broad term and everybody clearly does it sometimes and succeeds with it sometimes. One version of the take that I think is correct is that the pure representation/affinity approach can only be stretched so far, but that’s a lesson people were already starting to learn a few years ago - Harris clearly got the message and went pretty light on, say, appealing to how many demographic firsts she checks off.
Framing programs as uplift for specific groups also feels like it’s often a loser - unpopular in principle with everyone else while frequently underwhelming in substance for the targeted demographic.
Another is just - “demographics is destiny” only goes so far, and that especially goes for a heterogeneous group like “Latinos. ” Which feels almost like a reversion to the way things were understood 20 years ago, the first time Republicans touched 40 percent with Latinos, though it’s not a mystery why the category became increasingly racialized during Trump’s first run…
posted by atoxyl at 3:11 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Also on the somewhat positive side, I'm happy that we didn't go full 1930s Germany. People of good conscience did in the end band together to attempt to beat back the fascists and fascist-adjacent. It just turned out that there were more of them than there were of us. Perhaps it shouldn't be so comforting, but it is nice to know that we didn't fuck it up because the Judean People's Front and Peoples Front of Judea couldn't work together.
posted by wierdo at 3:12 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 3:12 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I hope I can be forgiven for some self-centered whining.
The worst part of all this from my own, selfish perspective, is watching my wife deal with it.
I have zero hope for positive political change. I have reconciled myself to trying to slow the rate at which things get worse.
She genuinely thought Harris might improve things for us and the vulnerable people in our lives and stood a real chance of winning, and she is devastated. Not just by how bad the situation is, but by how deeply disappointed and angry she is in the rest of the country.
This has been a long period of illness and financial emergency.. So we were both pretty worn down to start with, and our 20 year old kitty died Sunday morning. So the mood here is grim and I hate seeing her hurt.
I know other people are at much more immediate and genuine risk than I am, but I hate seeing her hurt so bad.
As far as fleeing the country. I had a job offer from a company in Canada in 2016, but I turned it down because my Mom had passed and my brother went to California and I didn't want to leave Dad here alone. Now Dad has a serious girlfriend and my brother is back and I may call them up and see if they still need people. It isn't going to save us from encroaching fascism, but it would at least put us somewhere with a more functional healthcare system.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:17 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]
The worst part of all this from my own, selfish perspective, is watching my wife deal with it.
I have zero hope for positive political change. I have reconciled myself to trying to slow the rate at which things get worse.
She genuinely thought Harris might improve things for us and the vulnerable people in our lives and stood a real chance of winning, and she is devastated. Not just by how bad the situation is, but by how deeply disappointed and angry she is in the rest of the country.
This has been a long period of illness and financial emergency.. So we were both pretty worn down to start with, and our 20 year old kitty died Sunday morning. So the mood here is grim and I hate seeing her hurt.
I know other people are at much more immediate and genuine risk than I am, but I hate seeing her hurt so bad.
As far as fleeing the country. I had a job offer from a company in Canada in 2016, but I turned it down because my Mom had passed and my brother went to California and I didn't want to leave Dad here alone. Now Dad has a serious girlfriend and my brother is back and I may call them up and see if they still need people. It isn't going to save us from encroaching fascism, but it would at least put us somewhere with a more functional healthcare system.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:17 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]
but it would at least put us somewhere with a more functional healthcare system
I wouldn’t count on that. It can take years to get a family doctor up here.
posted by fimbulvetr at 3:23 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
I wouldn’t count on that. It can take years to get a family doctor up here.
posted by fimbulvetr at 3:23 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
The trouble is, it's genuinely a huge problem, but no one has found anything that works. Air America petered out, and so has every similar attempt since. We have a few big podcasts, but the podcast world is dominated by the right wing, just like talk radio was. It's clear that the old guard "liberal media" has an editorial thumb on the scale in favor of Trumpian ideas. And trying to go the same (enticing) conspiracy-thinking route just makes people vulnerable to swinging rightwards, because they have enticing conspiracy theories too. I don't know how we solve this.
Well, consumer-rights prosecution of the funding sources for shitty rightwing media would go a long way... These things are typically funded through scam advertising, going as far as anyone can remember. Giving people easy ways to see and opt out of subscriptions would also do a lot of good.
posted by kaibutsu at 3:26 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Well, consumer-rights prosecution of the funding sources for shitty rightwing media would go a long way... These things are typically funded through scam advertising, going as far as anyone can remember. Giving people easy ways to see and opt out of subscriptions would also do a lot of good.
posted by kaibutsu at 3:26 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
The New York Times is behind a paywall. Fox News isn’t. That’s no accident.
There's no Fox News Pitchbot account. Because we don't need one to show us who they are.
posted by ryoshu at 3:28 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
There's no Fox News Pitchbot account. Because we don't need one to show us who they are.
posted by ryoshu at 3:28 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Dominion did a very foolish thing by choosing to settle with Fox, rather than turning Fox inside-out for the world to see.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:31 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:31 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]
Other EU countries would let us live there via her EU passport, but CD would have to work to support us both, because I couldn't work on a spouse visa. I'd need to get a Romanian passport, for which I'd need to learn fluent Romanian.
It depends on the EU country. As a US spouse of an EU citizen you have the right to join them in exercising their free movement rights under family reunification, but as you say, some do not allow you to work. Some do. France, for example:
France is also having major issues with a swing to the populist hard right, but is nowhere near as bad as it's going to be under Trump. There is also a fair bit of racism, but it's primarily directed at African immigrants; as US/EU immigrants, you'd generally be fine. As a brit with a French spouse and family, we seriously considered it after the Brexit vote while we waited (for two goddamn years) to see if she'd even be allowed to stay in the UK. It is NOT an easy process to up sticks and move to an entirely different country and culture by any means, but your spouse's EU citizenship opens up a lot of doors in a number of EU countries if you're determined and willing.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:46 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
It depends on the EU country. As a US spouse of an EU citizen you have the right to join them in exercising their free movement rights under family reunification, but as you say, some do not allow you to work. Some do. France, for example:
If your spouse is an EU citizen but not a French national, the application process is slightly different. As the spouse of an EU citizen, you can enter France without a visa (or with the relevant short-stay visa if required).With a family Carte de Séjour (or a short/long term visa, then a Carte de Séjour which is also an applicable route), and your spouse's passport, you'd both be able to seek work, and there are a number of English language jobs in France; though at least one of you being able to speak some French is basically a requirement to handle the amount of paperwork and would be a great help in living there depending upon region, and there is a French language test to seek citizenship. Watch out for US taxes as an expat, you don't escape the IRS just by leaving the country (one of only two countries to do so)
However, you must apply for a Carte de Séjour “membre de la famille d’un citoyen de l’Union/EEE/Suisse” (a residency card marked “family member of a Union citizen”) within three months of arrival.
You will need your ID, marriage certificate, your spouse’s ID and proof of French residency, and proof of living together for more than six months (such as a utility bill in both of your names, a rental contract, or a joint bank account). You will also need to sign an attestation of non-polygamy.
You will typically be issued with a 5-year residency card (this may be reduced in the instance of a temporary stay – for example, if your spouse has a 2-year work contract in France), but it is renewable. The Carte de Séjour is free of charge (providing that you apply within the three months) and will be issued with no further need to prove your income, work situation, or other requirements. Spouse residency cards may be declined if the marriage is suspected to be fraudulent.
Once you have been resident in France for five years, you have the right to request a permanent residency card or Carte de Resident, which is valid for 10 years and renewable. You also have the right to seek French nationality if you wish to do so, but this is not a legal requirement.
France is also having major issues with a swing to the populist hard right, but is nowhere near as bad as it's going to be under Trump. There is also a fair bit of racism, but it's primarily directed at African immigrants; as US/EU immigrants, you'd generally be fine. As a brit with a French spouse and family, we seriously considered it after the Brexit vote while we waited (for two goddamn years) to see if she'd even be allowed to stay in the UK. It is NOT an easy process to up sticks and move to an entirely different country and culture by any means, but your spouse's EU citizenship opens up a lot of doors in a number of EU countries if you're determined and willing.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:46 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
>The end of the '70s might be a good parallel, too... a period of monetary inflation and sexual revolution, followed by a reactionary alliance between Evangelicals and a right-wing celebrity president who's bullish on capitalism.
This does line up Trump-Vance on the Reagan-Bush 1984-88 2nd term, along with all the fun stuff like Iran-Contra. 'course, there's no hostile Congress to provide any checks now, quite the opposite.
f7u12
posted by torokunai at 3:52 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
This does line up Trump-Vance on the Reagan-Bush 1984-88 2nd term, along with all the fun stuff like Iran-Contra. 'course, there's no hostile Congress to provide any checks now, quite the opposite.
f7u12
posted by torokunai at 3:52 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I live under the protections of proportional representation and universal health care and today I am very grateful for both of these things.
posted by Samuel Farrow at 3:52 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Samuel Farrow at 3:52 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
People can theorize all day, here and elsewhere, but it's clear that the Democrats, centrists, the left, whatever you want to call them — just don't understand why people vote for Trump.
This is the problem in a nutshell - Democrats have no idea why people vote how they do and Republicans have a crystal clear view of why people vote how they do. They know full well that people in large numbers are stupid and have no capacity to separate lies from reality. But Democrats keep 'taking the high road' as if elections are some kind of morality test. Elections are a popularity contest, nothing more, nothing less. In this age of social media deciding what we think, even more so.
posted by dg at 3:56 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
This is the problem in a nutshell - Democrats have no idea why people vote how they do and Republicans have a crystal clear view of why people vote how they do. They know full well that people in large numbers are stupid and have no capacity to separate lies from reality. But Democrats keep 'taking the high road' as if elections are some kind of morality test. Elections are a popularity contest, nothing more, nothing less. In this age of social media deciding what we think, even more so.
posted by dg at 3:56 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
I finally feel like I'm able to collect some thoughts. First, I attended a Harris rally in a swing state. I wanted to see her talk in person before I voted. There's always something different about seeing someone in 3D and being able to see their posture, facial expressions, full crowd reactions.
Harris gave a good speech. Not great, but good enough. She repeated most of the lines I'd already heard from her, and I got the feeling her platform was still half-baked--which at the time, it was. But there wasn't anything bad about what she said. If anything, I wish she'd spoken longer.
Second, what was more memorable for me was the experience of the rally itself. The emailed location for her rally wasn't just wrong, it was across-town-wrong. I had to Google the right location, but there were only two articles that had it right. Then at the site, there were no signs directing people. I had to follow a crowd to hope I found the line. It didn't help that there were barely any organizers, the few I saw gave conflicting information, and nobody seemed to really give a damn about anyone in line. The whole event felt frustrating and rushed, and we were at the mercy of the organizers' incompetence. The only thing anyone seemed to care about was who stood where for the TV cameras.
At the time, I took it as a sign of the torrid pace of the campaign: chasing the news cycle that day rather than, you know, caring about us peons on the ground. She was new, trying to make her mark in as many places as possible.
Looking back, I was too forgiving. Everything about her campaign has been structurally incompetent from the get-go. She made the classic Democratic mistake of chasing the mythical "moderate Republican" vote like it matters, rather than playing to her base. She ran away from Biden's biggest achievements (prescription prices are great and much-needed, but saving Ukraine, taking on monopolies, and passing the IRA have been so much more significant). Plus "Turn The Page" is just a terrible slogan--especially for an electorate that barely reads.
And since she inherited Biden's campaign, that makes me think all these problems from the top were baked in ages ago. Trump has literally spent the last two years campaigning and speaking directly to his base and only his base. From hearing Harris speak, I don't think the her campaign ever had a clear idea of who her voters were supposed to be beyond general stereotypes (women, college-educated, white collar, etc.). Her messaging was fuzzy whereas Trump's was crystal clear. At a gut level, Trump's followers knew he was talking directly to them. That was the magic ingredient 2020 Biden had that Harris just didn't. (And I'm not talking about "vibes". I'm talking about making people feel seen as individuals in an authentic way. Biden spoke the language of our collective pandemic pain.)
Regardless of what Trump does next, I absolutely blame the Democratic establishment for running lousy candidates in lousy campaigns. With much emphasis on establishment here. The volunteers, everyone who tried so hard, who had so much on the line, desperately needed a win. But the people at the top had two years to figure out how to beat Trump again and they just couldn't do it. Fascism and bigotry won on their watch. God help us all.
posted by lock robster at 4:01 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]
Harris gave a good speech. Not great, but good enough. She repeated most of the lines I'd already heard from her, and I got the feeling her platform was still half-baked--which at the time, it was. But there wasn't anything bad about what she said. If anything, I wish she'd spoken longer.
Second, what was more memorable for me was the experience of the rally itself. The emailed location for her rally wasn't just wrong, it was across-town-wrong. I had to Google the right location, but there were only two articles that had it right. Then at the site, there were no signs directing people. I had to follow a crowd to hope I found the line. It didn't help that there were barely any organizers, the few I saw gave conflicting information, and nobody seemed to really give a damn about anyone in line. The whole event felt frustrating and rushed, and we were at the mercy of the organizers' incompetence. The only thing anyone seemed to care about was who stood where for the TV cameras.
At the time, I took it as a sign of the torrid pace of the campaign: chasing the news cycle that day rather than, you know, caring about us peons on the ground. She was new, trying to make her mark in as many places as possible.
Looking back, I was too forgiving. Everything about her campaign has been structurally incompetent from the get-go. She made the classic Democratic mistake of chasing the mythical "moderate Republican" vote like it matters, rather than playing to her base. She ran away from Biden's biggest achievements (prescription prices are great and much-needed, but saving Ukraine, taking on monopolies, and passing the IRA have been so much more significant). Plus "Turn The Page" is just a terrible slogan--especially for an electorate that barely reads.
And since she inherited Biden's campaign, that makes me think all these problems from the top were baked in ages ago. Trump has literally spent the last two years campaigning and speaking directly to his base and only his base. From hearing Harris speak, I don't think the her campaign ever had a clear idea of who her voters were supposed to be beyond general stereotypes (women, college-educated, white collar, etc.). Her messaging was fuzzy whereas Trump's was crystal clear. At a gut level, Trump's followers knew he was talking directly to them. That was the magic ingredient 2020 Biden had that Harris just didn't. (And I'm not talking about "vibes". I'm talking about making people feel seen as individuals in an authentic way. Biden spoke the language of our collective pandemic pain.)
Regardless of what Trump does next, I absolutely blame the Democratic establishment for running lousy candidates in lousy campaigns. With much emphasis on establishment here. The volunteers, everyone who tried so hard, who had so much on the line, desperately needed a win. But the people at the top had two years to figure out how to beat Trump again and they just couldn't do it. Fascism and bigotry won on their watch. God help us all.
posted by lock robster at 4:01 PM on November 6 [27 favorites]
somewhere with a more functional healthcare system.
oh man, I wish! Functional would be a marked improvement for healthcare anywhere in this country rn
posted by Kitteh at 4:14 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
oh man, I wish! Functional would be a marked improvement for healthcare anywhere in this country rn
posted by Kitteh at 4:14 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
The cold reality is that textbook English doesn't equate to comprehension, and the new arrival will be linguistically flummoxed from the get-go
Even moving to another English-speaking country can have communication difficulties; I lived in the UK for over a decade, and for my first six weeks or so there, any conversation would consist of a lot of "what?" and "I'm sorry, could you repeat that?" on both sides, until both my ear and pronunciation adjusted sufficiently to both understand and be understood (and that's with a General American accent, nothing exotic like New England Yankee or Deep-Fried Southerner).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 4:16 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Even moving to another English-speaking country can have communication difficulties; I lived in the UK for over a decade, and for my first six weeks or so there, any conversation would consist of a lot of "what?" and "I'm sorry, could you repeat that?" on both sides, until both my ear and pronunciation adjusted sufficiently to both understand and be understood (and that's with a General American accent, nothing exotic like New England Yankee or Deep-Fried Southerner).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 4:16 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
I live under the protections of proportional representation and universal health care and today I am very grateful for both of these things.
Hey cuzzie, compulsory voting would be worth adding. Dilutes the power of motivated and organised factions like bible bashers.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:17 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Hey cuzzie, compulsory voting would be worth adding. Dilutes the power of motivated and organised factions like bible bashers.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:17 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Like, if you think Canada is a safe place, this tells me you know nothing about the current state of Canadian politics.
It's basically the same place with the serial numbers filed off, right?
posted by pwnguin at 4:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
It's basically the same place with the serial numbers filed off, right?
posted by pwnguin at 4:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Time to start stocking up on estrogen again. I'm going to request an early refill and see if my Pride clinic will do it. Tough times ahead.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 4:31 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 4:31 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Democrats have no idea why people vote how they do and Republicans have a crystal clear view of why people vote how they do. They know full well that people in large numbers are stupid and have no capacity to separate lies from reality. But Democrats keep 'taking the high road' as if elections are some kind of morality test. Elections are a popularity contest, nothing more, nothing less.
When little delfin here was a young lad, he participated in a 4th grade class election. There were two entrants, myself and a popular kid. I decided that if I was going to beat him, I'd have to make my case properly, and I prepared and delivered a little speech; I waxed semi-eloquently about what being class president would mean, how I would hope to live up to their expectations, all of that kind of thing.
The other kid got up and said, "I dunno, vote for me 'cuz I'm honest," and sat down.
He, of course, won with ease -- something like 18 votes in a 20-something-kid class. And I cried my little eyes out, not because I was heartbroken over losing but because I had put my all into it, I had gone by the rules of the game and the principles of the thing, and he didn't even TRY and nobody really gave a rat's ass about any of that.
That's kind of how I feel today. Kamala may have had an abbreviated and welded-together campaign, but she meant what she was saying, or so it seemed. Trump spoke of cat-eating, Arnold Palmer's dick, his greatest hits tour of empty promises and scattered nonsense. And in the end, none of that mattered.
I had the excuse of being nine years old when I went through this valuable learning experience. By now, I would have hoped that similar lessons had long since been learned by others.
posted by delfin at 4:44 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]
When little delfin here was a young lad, he participated in a 4th grade class election. There were two entrants, myself and a popular kid. I decided that if I was going to beat him, I'd have to make my case properly, and I prepared and delivered a little speech; I waxed semi-eloquently about what being class president would mean, how I would hope to live up to their expectations, all of that kind of thing.
The other kid got up and said, "I dunno, vote for me 'cuz I'm honest," and sat down.
He, of course, won with ease -- something like 18 votes in a 20-something-kid class. And I cried my little eyes out, not because I was heartbroken over losing but because I had put my all into it, I had gone by the rules of the game and the principles of the thing, and he didn't even TRY and nobody really gave a rat's ass about any of that.
That's kind of how I feel today. Kamala may have had an abbreviated and welded-together campaign, but she meant what she was saying, or so it seemed. Trump spoke of cat-eating, Arnold Palmer's dick, his greatest hits tour of empty promises and scattered nonsense. And in the end, none of that mattered.
I had the excuse of being nine years old when I went through this valuable learning experience. By now, I would have hoped that similar lessons had long since been learned by others.
posted by delfin at 4:44 PM on November 6 [54 favorites]
what delfin said
I am the last person to say Harris was offering anything shit hot, but my god. People elected that man again. Last night during Canada's CBC coverage of the election I turned to my partner and shut it all off to get up and take the dogs out, it was not quite 9:00pm MDT, and all I could say is "I don't understand people."
how can you elect such a vile bully. how.
posted by ginger.beef at 4:49 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
I am the last person to say Harris was offering anything shit hot, but my god. People elected that man again. Last night during Canada's CBC coverage of the election I turned to my partner and shut it all off to get up and take the dogs out, it was not quite 9:00pm MDT, and all I could say is "I don't understand people."
how can you elect such a vile bully. how.
posted by ginger.beef at 4:49 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now. But now there's some asshole following along behind me stomping on every sapling and laughing at how annoyed I'm getting.
posted by lucidium at 4:53 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]
posted by lucidium at 4:53 PM on November 6 [32 favorites]
I just became eligible to apply for US Citizenship (nowhere near in time to get through that process and vote)
I’m making an appointment to see an Immigration Attorney next week….no idea if the process will still exist after Jan 20th so might as well get paperwork in now…
I cringe that I may have to sit in a dusty USCIS meeting room somewhere and take my pledge of allegiance with TFG’s portrait on the wall. Assuming it isn’t just a pledge to Trump and a mandatory donation via Trump Crypto to hispersonal bank account patriotic fund at that point.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 4:58 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I’m making an appointment to see an Immigration Attorney next week….no idea if the process will still exist after Jan 20th so might as well get paperwork in now…
I cringe that I may have to sit in a dusty USCIS meeting room somewhere and take my pledge of allegiance with TFG’s portrait on the wall. Assuming it isn’t just a pledge to Trump and a mandatory donation via Trump Crypto to his
posted by inflatablekiwi at 4:58 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
If you want to know how spineless the dems are, and how they are completely vapid, there’s no political reason for Biden to continue to send arms to Israel anymore. There’s no reason Harris has to verbally support Israel. They won’t do anything different of course, and the dems inability to take any risks, to stand for anything other than “in this house we believe “ yard signs, will be their downfall.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:59 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:59 PM on November 6 [23 favorites]
Disgusted. At a lot of things and a lot of people. Thank you to the people who worked and convinced and made calls and knocked doors and tried to get people to keep us from what happened earlier today. Thank you. I appreciate you.
posted by cashman at 5:08 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
posted by cashman at 5:08 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
All of you who have teenage or young-adult children: if those children have a uterus, encourage them to get an IUD or Nexplanon, before January.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:11 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:11 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
there’s no political reason for Biden to continue to send arms to Israel anymore. There’s no reason Harris has to verbally support Israel
Biden is an ideologically-committed Zionist; Harris probably is, as well (her husband certainly is). They'll both continue to support Israel because they don't think Palestinians have any rights Israelis are obliged to respect (to paraphrase Roger Taney).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:12 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
Biden is an ideologically-committed Zionist; Harris probably is, as well (her husband certainly is). They'll both continue to support Israel because they don't think Palestinians have any rights Israelis are obliged to respect (to paraphrase Roger Taney).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:12 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
how can you elect such a vile bully. how.
I think about how much right-wing attitudes have seeped into current culture and media.
Dozens of little things- the acceptance of 'alpha beta' nonsense to explain relationship dynamics, so many people- even journalists - adopting "Democrat" as a descriptor instead of Democratic, constantly looking for any signs of weakness to suss out any "cucks", so many petty, stupid right-wing postures.
At times, it feels like the culture at large has taken on the "pick-me girl" persona. I feel like it's low-key zombies all the way down. I include myself in this. I catch myself parroting right-wing phrases.
It makes sense to me why vile bullies are so popular. I feel like for a lot of people, cruelty is aspirational.
posted by ishmael at 5:12 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
I think about how much right-wing attitudes have seeped into current culture and media.
Dozens of little things- the acceptance of 'alpha beta' nonsense to explain relationship dynamics, so many people- even journalists - adopting "Democrat" as a descriptor instead of Democratic, constantly looking for any signs of weakness to suss out any "cucks", so many petty, stupid right-wing postures.
At times, it feels like the culture at large has taken on the "pick-me girl" persona. I feel like it's low-key zombies all the way down. I include myself in this. I catch myself parroting right-wing phrases.
It makes sense to me why vile bullies are so popular. I feel like for a lot of people, cruelty is aspirational.
posted by ishmael at 5:12 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Bullies win because bullies will harass you until you're gone/dead and nothing will stop them and nobody ever will.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:21 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:21 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
"I think what people are having trouble with is their lived experience of very long -- EXCEPTIONALLY LONG -- polling lines with "fewer people voted""
There are 100,000 fewer Election Day polling places in 2024
Republicans have been working for decades to reduce the number of polling places in predominately Democratic areas. That's one of the reason the GOP is so against vote-by-mail, because it gives them fewer ways to manipulate turnout.
If every adult citizen in the US voted in every election, Republicans would only be a regional party. They know this and have been doing everything they can to hang onto national power via gerrymandering, voter suppression, and propaganda meant to encourage voter apathy.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:27 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]
There are 100,000 fewer Election Day polling places in 2024
Republicans have been working for decades to reduce the number of polling places in predominately Democratic areas. That's one of the reason the GOP is so against vote-by-mail, because it gives them fewer ways to manipulate turnout.
If every adult citizen in the US voted in every election, Republicans would only be a regional party. They know this and have been doing everything they can to hang onto national power via gerrymandering, voter suppression, and propaganda meant to encourage voter apathy.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:27 PM on November 6 [33 favorites]
Nj has vote early and vote by mail, and barely went blue, relatively speaking
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:28 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:28 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
"We always, always, always stood a much better chance of winning with a white guy than a Black / Asian woman for president even despite Biden being obviously disabled and not fit for office. Anyone with a smidge of honesty will admit to the truth of this."
Unfortunately, I think you are right. After this, I don't expect to see another major party nomination for a female candidate for President in my lifetime.
Biden unfavorability: 54.9%
Harris unfavorability: 48.1%
Walz unfavorability: 39.2%
Speaking as an outsider, most of the non-Democrats I know who were holding their nose and voting for Harris seemed more enthused about Walz than her.
Walz is also the only one of the three whose favorability (41.0%) is higher than his unfavorability.
Hopefully the Dems will consider running him in 2028.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:38 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Unfortunately, I think you are right. After this, I don't expect to see another major party nomination for a female candidate for President in my lifetime.
Biden unfavorability: 54.9%
Harris unfavorability: 48.1%
Walz unfavorability: 39.2%
Speaking as an outsider, most of the non-Democrats I know who were holding their nose and voting for Harris seemed more enthused about Walz than her.
Walz is also the only one of the three whose favorability (41.0%) is higher than his unfavorability.
Hopefully the Dems will consider running him in 2028.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:38 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Well, we have to make it to 2028...
posted by Windopaene at 5:41 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by Windopaene at 5:41 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Sigh. America is so fucking stupid.
posted by ctmf at 5:45 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 5:45 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Like second-stupidest people in the world, other than brexit voters.
posted by ctmf at 5:47 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 5:47 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
"If Gen Z broke for TFG it makes short term sense. F*ck You, I Got Mine became F*ck You I'm Gonna Get Mine."
Specifically Gen Z men did. There was a lot of analysis leading up to the election about the huge divide between male and female Gen Z voters in the polls. The Joe Rogan endorsement at the end probably cemented the decision for many of them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/24/upshot/trump-polls-young-men.html
https://www.newsweek.com/polling-young-men-disadvantages-harris-1973635
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/whats-the-matter-with-young-male-voters
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/why-young-male-voters-are-being-maga-fied
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/donald-trump-young-men.html
posted by Jacqueline at 5:50 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Specifically Gen Z men did. There was a lot of analysis leading up to the election about the huge divide between male and female Gen Z voters in the polls. The Joe Rogan endorsement at the end probably cemented the decision for many of them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/24/upshot/trump-polls-young-men.html
https://www.newsweek.com/polling-young-men-disadvantages-harris-1973635
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/whats-the-matter-with-young-male-voters
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/why-young-male-voters-are-being-maga-fied
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/donald-trump-young-men.html
posted by Jacqueline at 5:50 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
I don't think they did. In the exit polls, Harris got her highest percentage of the vote from 18-24 year-olds.
18-24: 54%
Gotta break it down by gender, too.
Men 18-24: 46% Harris, 48% Trump
Women 18-24: 63% Harris, 36% Trump
Young men are a problem. We've been watching their hatefulness and radicalization develop over the past decade ("GamerGate" being one of the first major incidents that brought the problem to light), and now that generation's misogyny is being used to drive voter turnout for the GOP.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:05 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
18-24: 54%
Gotta break it down by gender, too.
Men 18-24: 46% Harris, 48% Trump
Women 18-24: 63% Harris, 36% Trump
Young men are a problem. We've been watching their hatefulness and radicalization develop over the past decade ("GamerGate" being one of the first major incidents that brought the problem to light), and now that generation's misogyny is being used to drive voter turnout for the GOP.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:05 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
Up-thread a noted right-winger suggested Harris didn't want to tackle inflation because it would necessitate "austerity". That is not a given unless you only want the poor and lower middle class to "pay" for the "fix". Tax the big corps and the big rich and you can kill inflation and solve a jillion other problems without anyone else noticing a thing.
posted by maxwelton at 6:09 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
posted by maxwelton at 6:09 PM on November 6 [18 favorites]
Young men are a problem.
In your link men 18-29 voted for Trump less than any other male age group. 18-29 went 49% Trump to 47% Harris (lower than women 45-64), 30-44 went 53% to 43%, 45-64 went 60% to 38%, and 65+ went 55% to 44%.
If anyone's a problem, it's Gen X men.
posted by brook horse at 6:15 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]
In your link men 18-29 voted for Trump less than any other male age group. 18-29 went 49% Trump to 47% Harris (lower than women 45-64), 30-44 went 53% to 43%, 45-64 went 60% to 38%, and 65+ went 55% to 44%.
If anyone's a problem, it's Gen X men.
posted by brook horse at 6:15 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]
"Hillary Clinton was viewed positively... until she ran for president."
Are you posting from some alternate timeline?
The right hated her from day one of Bill's campaign and just kept hating her more and more the better they got to know her. Like, it was a relatively mainstream view on the right that she'd orchestrated a bunch of murders to facilitate her husband's career. The first attempt at healthcare reform was dubbed "HillaryCare" and its association with her was one of the reasons it sunk. She was shredded for standing by her husband during Lewinsky scandal. All this was long before any serious talk of her running for President.
Once she became Secretary of State, the left started hating her too because she was basically just another neocon warmonger.
Maybe things seemed different from inside the Democratic Party bubble, but as an outsider to both parties, Hillary Clinton is one of the most hated national politicians of my lifetime. I can't think of a single person I know IRL who likes her. Even the Democrats I know who actively campaigned for her (including my own mother) only did so out of "blue no matter who" or "I want to elect a woman" obligation, not because they were enthused about her.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:18 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]
Are you posting from some alternate timeline?
The right hated her from day one of Bill's campaign and just kept hating her more and more the better they got to know her. Like, it was a relatively mainstream view on the right that she'd orchestrated a bunch of murders to facilitate her husband's career. The first attempt at healthcare reform was dubbed "HillaryCare" and its association with her was one of the reasons it sunk. She was shredded for standing by her husband during Lewinsky scandal. All this was long before any serious talk of her running for President.
Once she became Secretary of State, the left started hating her too because she was basically just another neocon warmonger.
Maybe things seemed different from inside the Democratic Party bubble, but as an outsider to both parties, Hillary Clinton is one of the most hated national politicians of my lifetime. I can't think of a single person I know IRL who likes her. Even the Democrats I know who actively campaigned for her (including my own mother) only did so out of "blue no matter who" or "I want to elect a woman" obligation, not because they were enthused about her.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:18 PM on November 6 [39 favorites]
Missed edit window. Should clarify that's lower Trump votes than women 45-64.
posted by brook horse at 6:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by brook horse at 6:22 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
The emails and text messages continue...
posted by Windopaene at 6:23 PM on November 6
posted by Windopaene at 6:23 PM on November 6
"emigrating is really fucking hard if you want to actually do it right and legally. Unless you're exceptionally skilled in a niche that a country needs"
The New Zealand "Green List" of fast-track occupations for residency has several that don't require a ton of education get into, if you don't already have the qualifications for something on the list. Several of the engineering and healthcare "technician" roles only require a two-year community college program, there's a bunch of construction skills that can be learned via short certifications and/or on-the-job training, and there's a few counseling professions that people with an unrelated bachelors degree can get into after completing a one-year certification or masters program.
IMO those of us who aren't in targeted groups should try to stay and fight, but I've been sending the New Zealand info my friends who are trans or have children who are trans because their risk level seems high enough that career planning with an eye to leaving the US if/when necessary makes a lot of sense.
So if you have reason to believe that there's a good chance that you'll need to GTFO out of the US to survive, I strongly recommend reviewing the Green List occupations to see if you're already in one, and if not then enroll ASAP in a short-term training program before federal student financial aid gets gutted. It's not too late to apply for a January start date for many communinty college and trade school programs.
I briefly looked at Canada, Australia, United Kingdom, and European Union as well before concluding that New Zealand seems like the optimal combination of compatible language/culture, LGBTQ protections, straightforwardness of immigration via occupation, and distance from the consequences of US foreign policy. Everyone should of course do their own research for their own situation, but if you are looking for the most straightforward ticket out of the US to a LGBTQ-safe country, then making an abrupt career change into a New Zealand Green List Tier 1 occupation seems like a good move.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:45 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]
The New Zealand "Green List" of fast-track occupations for residency has several that don't require a ton of education get into, if you don't already have the qualifications for something on the list. Several of the engineering and healthcare "technician" roles only require a two-year community college program, there's a bunch of construction skills that can be learned via short certifications and/or on-the-job training, and there's a few counseling professions that people with an unrelated bachelors degree can get into after completing a one-year certification or masters program.
IMO those of us who aren't in targeted groups should try to stay and fight, but I've been sending the New Zealand info my friends who are trans or have children who are trans because their risk level seems high enough that career planning with an eye to leaving the US if/when necessary makes a lot of sense.
So if you have reason to believe that there's a good chance that you'll need to GTFO out of the US to survive, I strongly recommend reviewing the Green List occupations to see if you're already in one, and if not then enroll ASAP in a short-term training program before federal student financial aid gets gutted. It's not too late to apply for a January start date for many communinty college and trade school programs.
I briefly looked at Canada, Australia, United Kingdom, and European Union as well before concluding that New Zealand seems like the optimal combination of compatible language/culture, LGBTQ protections, straightforwardness of immigration via occupation, and distance from the consequences of US foreign policy. Everyone should of course do their own research for their own situation, but if you are looking for the most straightforward ticket out of the US to a LGBTQ-safe country, then making an abrupt career change into a New Zealand Green List Tier 1 occupation seems like a good move.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:45 PM on November 6 [19 favorites]
Everything about her campaign has been structurally incompetent from the get-go.
Maybe the one rally you went to was disorganized, but every one of her rallies was packed, she had multiple rallies on the same day a couple of times, and coordinated simultaneous rallies with a seamless handoff back and forth.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:52 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Maybe the one rally you went to was disorganized, but every one of her rallies was packed, she had multiple rallies on the same day a couple of times, and coordinated simultaneous rallies with a seamless handoff back and forth.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:52 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
Nj has vote early and vote by mail, and barely went blue, relatively speaking
“first Republican popular vote win in 20 years with a consistent red shift across safe red and blue states” is fundamentally not easy to interpret as primarily a voter suppression story
posted by atoxyl at 6:57 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
“first Republican popular vote win in 20 years with a consistent red shift across safe red and blue states” is fundamentally not easy to interpret as primarily a voter suppression story
posted by atoxyl at 6:57 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
"Some of them are indeed white in a way that keeps them safe (for a little while) from Trump, but they have loved ones who are squarely in the sights of Trump and the ethnofascist theocratic oligarchs."
This. I am learning a lot about my long-time Facebook friends' families today. Turns out a bunch of people whose own demographics would make them safe from Trump have LGBTQ kids and siblings, so their interest in emigrating is because they're the ones with the skills and money to do so. Several are seriously considering whether they should emigrate ASAP so that they're in position to sponsor their vulnerable family members if/when things get really bad. And a few of my cishet single friends who have the necessary skills and resources to emigrate are even talking about fake-marrying a LGBTQ friend to bring them along.
The vibe is more "we gotta figure out how to evacuate the vulnerable" than "I'm going to use my privilege to GTFO and let the rest of you burn," at least amongst my friends who have started seriously talking about emigrating.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:57 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
This. I am learning a lot about my long-time Facebook friends' families today. Turns out a bunch of people whose own demographics would make them safe from Trump have LGBTQ kids and siblings, so their interest in emigrating is because they're the ones with the skills and money to do so. Several are seriously considering whether they should emigrate ASAP so that they're in position to sponsor their vulnerable family members if/when things get really bad. And a few of my cishet single friends who have the necessary skills and resources to emigrate are even talking about fake-marrying a LGBTQ friend to bring them along.
The vibe is more "we gotta figure out how to evacuate the vulnerable" than "I'm going to use my privilege to GTFO and let the rest of you burn," at least amongst my friends who have started seriously talking about emigrating.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:57 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
Up-thread a noted right-winger suggested Harris didn't want to tackle inflation because it would necessitate "austerity".
I didn’t really get that comment because… it already looks like we’re threading the needle of tackling inflation and not crashing the economy remarkably well? The Trumpian angle would be to say you have a plan to tackle inflation and then do nothing and reap the rewards of what’s already been set in motion (unfortunately works better if you are actually Trump!)
posted by atoxyl at 7:00 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
I didn’t really get that comment because… it already looks like we’re threading the needle of tackling inflation and not crashing the economy remarkably well? The Trumpian angle would be to say you have a plan to tackle inflation and then do nothing and reap the rewards of what’s already been set in motion (unfortunately works better if you are actually Trump!)
posted by atoxyl at 7:00 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
Apropos of nothing: that Askme question about how do you deal with people whom you love who have voted for TFG is one of the most useful things I have seen in months on the internet about the subject.
posted by Melismata at 7:12 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
posted by Melismata at 7:12 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
My one bit of optimism is that if Trump actually does even half of what he says he's going to do, the resulting shitshow will be so awful for such a huge percentage of the population that it could destroy the Republican Party.
But for that to work, Democrats need to be better at communicating to the general public whose fault the shitshow is, and that's a huge challenge because low-information Republican voters are so fucking stupid.
I can't find a link to it now, but a great example of their stupidity was that tweet complaining that a huge amount of fentanyl had just been seized at the border and when were Biden and Harris going to do something about it, with a response pointing out that it was Biden administration's border patrol had just seized a huge amount fentanyl and prevented it from coming into the country... what can you do when they don't even think through the logical implications of THEIR OWN WORDS???
I have not idea how to get past the "everything I like is thanks to Republicans and everthing I dislike is the Democrats' fault, regardless of whether that has any basis in reality" cognitive bias, but if someone can crack that then the next 4 years are an opportunity to completely destroy public opinion of the GOP.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:17 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
But for that to work, Democrats need to be better at communicating to the general public whose fault the shitshow is, and that's a huge challenge because low-information Republican voters are so fucking stupid.
I can't find a link to it now, but a great example of their stupidity was that tweet complaining that a huge amount of fentanyl had just been seized at the border and when were Biden and Harris going to do something about it, with a response pointing out that it was Biden administration's border patrol had just seized a huge amount fentanyl and prevented it from coming into the country... what can you do when they don't even think through the logical implications of THEIR OWN WORDS???
I have not idea how to get past the "everything I like is thanks to Republicans and everthing I dislike is the Democrats' fault, regardless of whether that has any basis in reality" cognitive bias, but if someone can crack that then the next 4 years are an opportunity to completely destroy public opinion of the GOP.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:17 PM on November 6 [17 favorites]
I think that for a lot of people, the emotional message is more important than the information. Hence the Republicans complete lack of care for their own hypocrisy.
posted by Marticus at 7:22 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 7:22 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Remarkable-
Lautaro Grinspan, Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Lautaro Grinspan, Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
I’m speaking with migrants outside Atlanta’s ICE field office about last night’s election results.posted by Apocryphon at 7:28 PM on November 6 [15 favorites]
“We’re fucked,” said the very first person I talked to, a woman from Nicaragua.
Update: Several of the migrants I’ve been speaking with say they would have voted for Trump themselves. Most are folks who crossed the border illegally in the last 2-3 years. They don’t believe Trump will deport them, because they are here to work and are “not criminals.”
The Joe Rogan endorsement at the end probably cemented the decision for many of them.
Mentioned this earlier but if the Rogansphere played a role I suspect it was much less the explicit (but last minute) endorsement that moved the needle and much more the platform Trump’s campaign got. Trump, Vance and Musk each did like three hours with Joe Rogan! Trump also did Lex Friedman and Theo Von and probably some others. Those guys are all over the YouTube algorithm besides presumably being popular in pure podcast format.
Harris did get a Rogan invite, but declined citing scheduling conflicts, and instead went on Call Her Daddy and Shannon Sharpe’s show. Both popular shows and defensible choices - look them up if you don’t know the respective demographics each appearance was targeting - but very conservative strategically.
I dunno, it’s not like I think a Rogan interview would have won it for her, but in the future I would want a candidate to be more willing to go out of their comfort zone with stuff like this, especially a candidate in such a fundamentally seat-of-the-pants situation as hers. Or send Walz? What the hell were they doing with him?
posted by atoxyl at 7:31 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Mentioned this earlier but if the Rogansphere played a role I suspect it was much less the explicit (but last minute) endorsement that moved the needle and much more the platform Trump’s campaign got. Trump, Vance and Musk each did like three hours with Joe Rogan! Trump also did Lex Friedman and Theo Von and probably some others. Those guys are all over the YouTube algorithm besides presumably being popular in pure podcast format.
Harris did get a Rogan invite, but declined citing scheduling conflicts, and instead went on Call Her Daddy and Shannon Sharpe’s show. Both popular shows and defensible choices - look them up if you don’t know the respective demographics each appearance was targeting - but very conservative strategically.
I dunno, it’s not like I think a Rogan interview would have won it for her, but in the future I would want a candidate to be more willing to go out of their comfort zone with stuff like this, especially a candidate in such a fundamentally seat-of-the-pants situation as hers. Or send Walz? What the hell were they doing with him?
posted by atoxyl at 7:31 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
I don't think Joe Rogan necessary won Trump a lot of new supporters, but I do think he helped motivate voter turnout from an otherwise relatively apathetic demographic. His endorsement changed their perspective of voting from being a chore done solo into more of a fun group activity even if they were still going to the polls by themselves.
These young men are very easily manipulated by anyone who can assuage their feelings of loneliness and alientation, and "Joe Rogan fans are all going out to vote for Trump today" did that.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:40 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
These young men are very easily manipulated by anyone who can assuage their feelings of loneliness and alientation, and "Joe Rogan fans are all going out to vote for Trump today" did that.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:40 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Agree more Rogan type interaction would help the left. In an us vs. them political framing of the issues, dems are becoming more seen as the white college educated people looking down on the blue collar. The message of helping poor and minorities doesn’t land well if they think you’re also calling them dumb, racist, voting against their own interests, etc. Regardless of how shallow and false Trump’s schtick is, they see him at least not looking down on their world of Rogan, ufc, sports gambling, fast food, crypto, etc.
Regarding the right's gains in black & latino votes: it's ironic that most of the xenophobic harsh anti-immigration policy was born from a great replacement fear where they thought the nation would be a big blue minority state - but those same minorities they now might need and will probably work on growing that end of their coalition. It will be a weird dance of xenophobic anti-immigration and shocking immigration policy, but awkwardly claiming non-racist as they keep trying to grow minority republicans.
I think to win more of the minority coalition back, and the blue collar vote more broadly, left needs to fight populism with populism and go more Bernie style aggressive anti-billionaire, showing how the rich are exploiting their support. The billionaires are tapping an increasingly foreign supply of money to influence US politics- and I think you can also message with a different version of "nationalism" focused not on immigration but on protecting our true democratic representation against the encroachment of corporations and foreign dark money. That whole blue collar group including minorities would be more on board with democratic/economic populism if they didn’t think dems were controlled by corporate $ just as much as the other guy & were meeting them at their own level rather than talking down.
Unrelated aside- as my first comment in this thread, MeFi is once again the best place for a dose of sanity during this complete shitshow, and it's been helpful mentally & a small silver lining to read through- thanks for sharing, and for those who were actively involved in the elections, huge thanks!
posted by p3t3 at 7:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Regarding the right's gains in black & latino votes: it's ironic that most of the xenophobic harsh anti-immigration policy was born from a great replacement fear where they thought the nation would be a big blue minority state - but those same minorities they now might need and will probably work on growing that end of their coalition. It will be a weird dance of xenophobic anti-immigration and shocking immigration policy, but awkwardly claiming non-racist as they keep trying to grow minority republicans.
I think to win more of the minority coalition back, and the blue collar vote more broadly, left needs to fight populism with populism and go more Bernie style aggressive anti-billionaire, showing how the rich are exploiting their support. The billionaires are tapping an increasingly foreign supply of money to influence US politics- and I think you can also message with a different version of "nationalism" focused not on immigration but on protecting our true democratic representation against the encroachment of corporations and foreign dark money. That whole blue collar group including minorities would be more on board with democratic/economic populism if they didn’t think dems were controlled by corporate $ just as much as the other guy & were meeting them at their own level rather than talking down.
Unrelated aside- as my first comment in this thread, MeFi is once again the best place for a dose of sanity during this complete shitshow, and it's been helpful mentally & a small silver lining to read through- thanks for sharing, and for those who were actively involved in the elections, huge thanks!
posted by p3t3 at 7:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
"emigrating is really fucking hard if you want to actually do it right and legally. Unless you're exceptionally skilled in a niche that a country needs"
If anyone is serious about this option, New Zealand is probably a better choice, but Australia offers a couple of pathways that don't depend on pre-existing qualifications:
Work and Holiday Visa (only available for 18-30 year olds) - 12 months initially, but you can apply for a second and third visa. A drawback of this visa is that there's no defined pathway to permanency. After your third 12-month visa, you have to leave the country. The advantage is it's easy to get and the requirements are minimal. Good for a quick move, but not so good -longer-term.
Student Visa - the main requirement (apart from character, proving you have sufficient funds to a set limit etc) is that you must be enrolled in an approved course. This doesn't have to be higher ed, lots of students come to study vocational courses. This is a popular pathway to permanency, as long as you make the right decisions from the start. At least two years of study in an area on the Skilled Occupation List, preferably in a regional area, will get you started down that path. Students can work part-time and most courses on offer are structured to allow you plenty of opportunity to work. I work at a college that offers these courses and happy to be contacted via MeMail if anyone wants advice on this. The government is making noises about trying to reduce the number of overseas students, but I don't expect it to amount to much in reality.
I mean, I'm not trying to encourage people to leave their homeland but, if that is a serious consideration for you, there are ways to make it happen. Both Australia and New Zealand depend on immigration a great deal, so are (mostly) welcoming to migrants and those from English-speaking countries definitely have an easier time both getting a visa and fitting in once in the country.
posted by dg at 7:55 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
If anyone is serious about this option, New Zealand is probably a better choice, but Australia offers a couple of pathways that don't depend on pre-existing qualifications:
Work and Holiday Visa (only available for 18-30 year olds) - 12 months initially, but you can apply for a second and third visa. A drawback of this visa is that there's no defined pathway to permanency. After your third 12-month visa, you have to leave the country. The advantage is it's easy to get and the requirements are minimal. Good for a quick move, but not so good -longer-term.
Student Visa - the main requirement (apart from character, proving you have sufficient funds to a set limit etc) is that you must be enrolled in an approved course. This doesn't have to be higher ed, lots of students come to study vocational courses. This is a popular pathway to permanency, as long as you make the right decisions from the start. At least two years of study in an area on the Skilled Occupation List, preferably in a regional area, will get you started down that path. Students can work part-time and most courses on offer are structured to allow you plenty of opportunity to work. I work at a college that offers these courses and happy to be contacted via MeMail if anyone wants advice on this. The government is making noises about trying to reduce the number of overseas students, but I don't expect it to amount to much in reality.
I mean, I'm not trying to encourage people to leave their homeland but, if that is a serious consideration for you, there are ways to make it happen. Both Australia and New Zealand depend on immigration a great deal, so are (mostly) welcoming to migrants and those from English-speaking countries definitely have an easier time both getting a visa and fitting in once in the country.
posted by dg at 7:55 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
In an us vs. them political framing of the issues, dems are becoming more seen as the white college educated people looking down on the blue collar.
People have been linking the Chappelle/Rock SNL skit from the first time around.
There's also always the into sequence to Idiocracy. Which for everything wrong with that movie, it has been very hard not to think about during this election cycle. For example, Trump's lawyer. And, compare.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:59 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
People have been linking the Chappelle/Rock SNL skit from the first time around.
There's also always the into sequence to Idiocracy. Which for everything wrong with that movie, it has been very hard not to think about during this election cycle. For example, Trump's lawyer. And, compare.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:59 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
New Zealander here. We have our own crank right-wing government, with a three party coalition dominated by horrible populists (NZ First) and vicious capitalists (ACT) with a side of racism, transphobia and cronyism, who are doing their best to tear down everything good that the Ardern government ever did as fast as they can. Rule of law is holding up pretty well here and it's not BAD bad but it isn't great right now either. You also are going to have really massive culture shock.
I'm not trying to discourage you but you need to be clear eyed about where you're coming to and how much your life is going to suck through a possibly prolonged and difficult adjustment.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 8:01 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I'm not trying to discourage you but you need to be clear eyed about where you're coming to and how much your life is going to suck through a possibly prolonged and difficult adjustment.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 8:01 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
I struggle with this one a bit, because I'm not sure the Democrats are subtle enough to realize what's disliked here is the corporate-consultant allyship feeling of this particular implementation of identity politics, and the risk is, they decide to start throwing people under the bus.
No, this is wrong too.
What is disliked is specifically the way that the Democrats do identity politics but it's not just the corporate allyship nature of it. It's specifically the culturally exclusive way that they do it.
The Democrats, for better or worse, largely aren't trying too hard to envision a world outside of the status quo of capitalism. And right now, the parameters they are setting their vision around - even if unintentionally - are changes and sacrifices that they aren't hurt by. And so the identity politics they're supporting is largely an urban and industrial capitalist identity politics. The joke is "more! women! prison! guards!" for a reason. They're supporting, by and large, things that are good for women in the ways that let women work and participate in capitalism, because the urban social model is that women work, just like men, everybody participates in capitalism and that's just how it is. They support abortion, because abortion lets women participate in capitalism more broadly. They aren't supporting broad based fertility services. 60% of the electorate said they wanted to hear where the candidates stood on fertility treatment. Trump said that he would ensure that insurance was forced to cover and pay for IVF treatment. Harris said IVF was great, but stopped short of committing to pay for it. Because urban city dwellers with high wages that want IVF can usually afford to pay for it, or pay a portion of it - or are often happy being DINKs in ways that are not culturally the same elsewhere.
And like - similarly, the Dems back racial minorities to the extent that those racial minorities act like white urban professionals. They do not back them when they are inconveniently religious, or want large families, or don't want to participate in capitalism, or want to pass children to other family members rather than have them go into the system. They don't back them when they want to own rural land and have personally owned vehicles. That's a betrayal! That's Republican shit! Why would any good racial minority want to do that? (I note that as someone who's worked in housing, there's not a lot of help out there for people who own their own home and are having trouble; the idea is 'ah, you're fine, just sell it and rent'.)
And like - the way that the Democrats, and their donors, because you really can't separate the two when the donors are operating as a propaganda mouthpiece, talk about men and masculinity has been deeply run through an urban lens in ways that have nothing to do with women's freedom from patriarchy and everything to do with urban preferences around masculinity and culture. Like - everyone was so happy about Walz, because Walz looked non-threatening. Walz was the cheat code - he went hunting, but he didn't look unpleasantly manly when he was doing it. He wasn't one of those charismatic hypersexed men! You could be pretty sure he never did anything bad ever not just because he was moral but because he never felt the desire to do so! And like - that's just an urban preference, and has nothing to do with racial equality. There are some real shitkickers who are fierce anti-racist warriors. And we should be celebrating them! We could be celebrating them. You don't have to have submissive vibes to not be racist or sexist.
And so people look at what the Democrats are saying and what they're doing and they rightly call bullshit. They rightly say, "You don't actually give a shit about these people, you just care about the convenient ones, who agree with you and act like you. You're just pretending to be moral." And no one likes a fucking hypocrite.
At this point I don't even know if it's on purpose or not. I don't even know if they're doing it intentionally or they just aren't capable of seeing their bias. I'm just so, so tired of the same issues coming up year after year and the Democrats never paying attention and never giving a shit and pretending it's literally anything else every time. And now we're going to fascism land because they just won't fucking listen.
posted by corb at 8:05 PM on November 6 [61 favorites]
No, this is wrong too.
What is disliked is specifically the way that the Democrats do identity politics but it's not just the corporate allyship nature of it. It's specifically the culturally exclusive way that they do it.
The Democrats, for better or worse, largely aren't trying too hard to envision a world outside of the status quo of capitalism. And right now, the parameters they are setting their vision around - even if unintentionally - are changes and sacrifices that they aren't hurt by. And so the identity politics they're supporting is largely an urban and industrial capitalist identity politics. The joke is "more! women! prison! guards!" for a reason. They're supporting, by and large, things that are good for women in the ways that let women work and participate in capitalism, because the urban social model is that women work, just like men, everybody participates in capitalism and that's just how it is. They support abortion, because abortion lets women participate in capitalism more broadly. They aren't supporting broad based fertility services. 60% of the electorate said they wanted to hear where the candidates stood on fertility treatment. Trump said that he would ensure that insurance was forced to cover and pay for IVF treatment. Harris said IVF was great, but stopped short of committing to pay for it. Because urban city dwellers with high wages that want IVF can usually afford to pay for it, or pay a portion of it - or are often happy being DINKs in ways that are not culturally the same elsewhere.
And like - similarly, the Dems back racial minorities to the extent that those racial minorities act like white urban professionals. They do not back them when they are inconveniently religious, or want large families, or don't want to participate in capitalism, or want to pass children to other family members rather than have them go into the system. They don't back them when they want to own rural land and have personally owned vehicles. That's a betrayal! That's Republican shit! Why would any good racial minority want to do that? (I note that as someone who's worked in housing, there's not a lot of help out there for people who own their own home and are having trouble; the idea is 'ah, you're fine, just sell it and rent'.)
And like - the way that the Democrats, and their donors, because you really can't separate the two when the donors are operating as a propaganda mouthpiece, talk about men and masculinity has been deeply run through an urban lens in ways that have nothing to do with women's freedom from patriarchy and everything to do with urban preferences around masculinity and culture. Like - everyone was so happy about Walz, because Walz looked non-threatening. Walz was the cheat code - he went hunting, but he didn't look unpleasantly manly when he was doing it. He wasn't one of those charismatic hypersexed men! You could be pretty sure he never did anything bad ever not just because he was moral but because he never felt the desire to do so! And like - that's just an urban preference, and has nothing to do with racial equality. There are some real shitkickers who are fierce anti-racist warriors. And we should be celebrating them! We could be celebrating them. You don't have to have submissive vibes to not be racist or sexist.
And so people look at what the Democrats are saying and what they're doing and they rightly call bullshit. They rightly say, "You don't actually give a shit about these people, you just care about the convenient ones, who agree with you and act like you. You're just pretending to be moral." And no one likes a fucking hypocrite.
At this point I don't even know if it's on purpose or not. I don't even know if they're doing it intentionally or they just aren't capable of seeing their bias. I'm just so, so tired of the same issues coming up year after year and the Democrats never paying attention and never giving a shit and pretending it's literally anything else every time. And now we're going to fascism land because they just won't fucking listen.
posted by corb at 8:05 PM on November 6 [61 favorites]
1000000% corb.
posted by flamk at 8:15 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by flamk at 8:15 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
> And no one likes a fucking hypocrite.
America just voted to elect perhaps the most hypocritical politician that has ever lived. I don't think we need to go through the list. If hypocrisy were a dominant or even significant factor, this would not have been the result.
> And now we're going to fascism land because they just won't fucking listen.
We're going to fascism land because a majority of America wants a fascist to crush their enemies. A candidate who had objectively better policies on the issues voters say they care about was defeated by a candidate who appealed to bigotry and score-settling. Laundering it with this Murc's law bullshit is a choice.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:19 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]
America just voted to elect perhaps the most hypocritical politician that has ever lived. I don't think we need to go through the list. If hypocrisy were a dominant or even significant factor, this would not have been the result.
> And now we're going to fascism land because they just won't fucking listen.
We're going to fascism land because a majority of America wants a fascist to crush their enemies. A candidate who had objectively better policies on the issues voters say they care about was defeated by a candidate who appealed to bigotry and score-settling. Laundering it with this Murc's law bullshit is a choice.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:19 PM on November 6 [30 favorites]
"We're going to fascism land because a majority of America wants a fascist to crush their enemies."
Yup. This article from 2019 perfectly encapsulated the Trump voter mentality: “He’s not hurting the people he needs to be”: a Trump voter says the quiet part out loud
posted by Jacqueline at 8:22 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Yup. This article from 2019 perfectly encapsulated the Trump voter mentality: “He’s not hurting the people he needs to be”: a Trump voter says the quiet part out loud
posted by Jacqueline at 8:22 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
Our local newspaper posted voter turnout numbers for various parts of the metro area (key graphic).
Here are 2016, 2020, and 2024 turnout percentages for the city center/most urbanized parts of the metro:
- Kansas City Missouri (city only): 59% (2016) - 61% (2020) - 54% (2024)
- Kansas City Kansas: 63% (2016) - 63% (2020) - 52% (2024)
So the turnout in the urban center, the areas with the highest percentages of minority voters, and BY FAR the highest percentages of Democratic voters, was down by 5-10%.
And that turnout was barely over 50%.
Whereas turnout in suburban areas was right on track with previous elections - in the 70-80% range and generally on par with previous years.
You would expect the dense urban areas to be on fire to get out and vote for the first black woman president.
And you'd expect the big democratic strongholds to be turning out record high numbers in support of the abortion amendment on the ballot (which relatively squeaked by with a slight majority - it should have been 5 points higher and exactly these voters are the ones missing).
I think this is going to be a story we'll see play out across the country: Low enthusiasm and low turnout in Democratic strongholds, paired with good or even above average enthusiasm for Trump supporters.
posted by flug at 8:22 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Here are 2016, 2020, and 2024 turnout percentages for the city center/most urbanized parts of the metro:
- Kansas City Missouri (city only): 59% (2016) - 61% (2020) - 54% (2024)
- Kansas City Kansas: 63% (2016) - 63% (2020) - 52% (2024)
So the turnout in the urban center, the areas with the highest percentages of minority voters, and BY FAR the highest percentages of Democratic voters, was down by 5-10%.
And that turnout was barely over 50%.
Whereas turnout in suburban areas was right on track with previous elections - in the 70-80% range and generally on par with previous years.
You would expect the dense urban areas to be on fire to get out and vote for the first black woman president.
And you'd expect the big democratic strongholds to be turning out record high numbers in support of the abortion amendment on the ballot (which relatively squeaked by with a slight majority - it should have been 5 points higher and exactly these voters are the ones missing).
I think this is going to be a story we'll see play out across the country: Low enthusiasm and low turnout in Democratic strongholds, paired with good or even above average enthusiasm for Trump supporters.
posted by flug at 8:22 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
> Yup. This article from 2019 perfectly encapsulated the Trump voter mentality: “He’s not hurting the people he needs to be”: a Trump voter says the quiet part out loud
And lest anyone think this article is an exercise in nutpicking: for the Trump campaign's closing argument, they chose to travel outside the swing states to Madison Square Garden for a rally that consisted of nothing but score-settling.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:26 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
And lest anyone think this article is an exercise in nutpicking: for the Trump campaign's closing argument, they chose to travel outside the swing states to Madison Square Garden for a rally that consisted of nothing but score-settling.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:26 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
America just voted to elect perhaps the most hypocritical politician that has ever lived
The problem with Democrats isn't just that they're hypocrites, it's that they're insufferably fucking smug and condescending about it while being blind to a lot of their own hypocrisy (like: ignoring their largely nonwhite base in favour of chasing after the unicorn of white moderate suburban voters, ignoring their traditionally working-class base in order to try to become a party for upper-middle-class professionals while also touting their union bonafides, etc).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:30 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
The problem with Democrats isn't just that they're hypocrites, it's that they're insufferably fucking smug and condescending about it while being blind to a lot of their own hypocrisy (like: ignoring their largely nonwhite base in favour of chasing after the unicorn of white moderate suburban voters, ignoring their traditionally working-class base in order to try to become a party for upper-middle-class professionals while also touting their union bonafides, etc).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:30 PM on November 6 [8 favorites]
So, the party of noted salt-of-the-earth everymen like JD Vance, Josh Hawley, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell is winning because the other party is too insufferably smug and condescending?
posted by tonycpsu at 8:35 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 8:35 PM on November 6 [28 favorites]
Canadian here: anecdotal but this result is being met with a shrug in my circles. Feels like most people thought Trump was a foregone conclusion and the enthusiasm for Harris was hoping she would win rather than believing she could. 2016 was devastating, 2024 is just sort of disappointing. Sorry all.
posted by monkeymike at 8:37 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by monkeymike at 8:37 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
> the other party is too insufferably smug and condescending
I will say something different, which is that the Democrats absolutely MUST do a better job of getting the word out about whatever it is they ARE doing.
We are actually just completing one of the best presidential terms in our lifetime. BUT NOBODY KNOWS IT - not even our own allies.
Just for fun I counted up media mentions of Trump vs Biden for the first two years of their presidencies. Biden was 1.0 million - Trump 1.5 million. That is basically the difference between a guy who was competent and quiet and another guy who knows how to yank everybody's chain about 10 times a day.
Sad as it may be, you don't win elections by being quiet and meek. And competent.
posted by flug at 8:42 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
I will say something different, which is that the Democrats absolutely MUST do a better job of getting the word out about whatever it is they ARE doing.
We are actually just completing one of the best presidential terms in our lifetime. BUT NOBODY KNOWS IT - not even our own allies.
Just for fun I counted up media mentions of Trump vs Biden for the first two years of their presidencies. Biden was 1.0 million - Trump 1.5 million. That is basically the difference between a guy who was competent and quiet and another guy who knows how to yank everybody's chain about 10 times a day.
Sad as it may be, you don't win elections by being quiet and meek. And competent.
posted by flug at 8:42 PM on November 6 [10 favorites]
> Sad as it may be, you don't win elections by being quiet and meek. And competent.
So you're saying there's an amount of boastfulness and PR spin that could have convinced the media ecosystem we have -- including broadcast and online media -- to cover Democrats in a way that would have resonated with voters? A media ecosystem dominated by Fox News on TV and Twitter online? A media ecosystem that had the dominant newspaper both-sidesing every story and the second most dominant newspaper refusing to make an endorsement? I'd love to see what that media strategy looks like.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:45 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
So you're saying there's an amount of boastfulness and PR spin that could have convinced the media ecosystem we have -- including broadcast and online media -- to cover Democrats in a way that would have resonated with voters? A media ecosystem dominated by Fox News on TV and Twitter online? A media ecosystem that had the dominant newspaper both-sidesing every story and the second most dominant newspaper refusing to make an endorsement? I'd love to see what that media strategy looks like.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:45 PM on November 6 [12 favorites]
So, the party of noted salt-of-the-earth everymen like JD Vance, Josh Hawley, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell is winning because the other party is too insufferably smug and condescending?
When Democrats have been gaslighting people with bullshit about "best economy ever" while most people have seen their cost of living increase significantly without a concomitant rise in wages? Yeah, in fact.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:46 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
When Democrats have been gaslighting people with bullshit about "best economy ever" while most people have seen their cost of living increase significantly without a concomitant rise in wages? Yeah, in fact.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:46 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
> When Democrats have been gaslighting people with bullshit about "best economy ever" while most people have seen their cost of living increase significantly without a concomitant rise in wages? Yeah, in fact.
This is simply not true:
posted by tonycpsu at 8:50 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
This is simply not true:
Inflation has risen quickly over the past few years — but wages have been rising slightly faster.You can cherry-pick an alternate story if you would like, but the facts show that most are doing better after adjusting for inflation.
Lower-income workers have seen even bigger boosts to their purchasing power thanks to earnings that have outpaced the average.
Even though their pay has broadly kept pace, most Americans still have mixed feelings about the state of the economy.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:50 PM on November 6 [16 favorites]
The most bleak and devastating thing for me is the realization that Biden could forgive every student loan, invest in every rural country, passed the biggest climate bill, done every progressive thing people say they want, and none of it mattered.
I'm at the point when I want everyone's benefits taken away.
It's what they voted for.
posted by ichomp at 8:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
I'm at the point when I want everyone's benefits taken away.
It's what they voted for.
posted by ichomp at 8:52 PM on November 6 [6 favorites]
We're never getting progressive legislation again. We also don't deserve it.
posted by ichomp at 8:55 PM on November 6
posted by ichomp at 8:55 PM on November 6
Easy to say if you don't need benefits. What about the many who didn't vote to lose their benefits?
posted by bootlegpop at 8:56 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
posted by bootlegpop at 8:56 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Nathan Tankus has a relevant thread re: economics -
In 2022 when i argued high inflation is distinct from high prices & the salient prices are not the same as the CPI/PCE weights mainstream economic policy commentators dismissed it as cope about fiscal. But i have talked the economy with so many people these past 15 years
I knew especially from high rent areas that high rents like NYC- my home- that they had a profound impact even when CPI is low. I knew food and energy were the same. People regularly told me inflation was high when it was low because of these salient prices
Those commentators overwhelmingly expected the negative political impact would fade as inflation fell but
1)the public does not care about 1983 CPI changes- they see interest as a price
2) the salient high prices would still define people's thinking, as I predicted
And he links to his 2022 newsletter post about inflation v pricing: Prices, Prices, Prices. (Almost) Everything You Wanted to Know, but Were Too Annoyed to Ask.
posted by cendawanita at 8:59 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
In 2022 when i argued high inflation is distinct from high prices & the salient prices are not the same as the CPI/PCE weights mainstream economic policy commentators dismissed it as cope about fiscal. But i have talked the economy with so many people these past 15 years
I knew especially from high rent areas that high rents like NYC- my home- that they had a profound impact even when CPI is low. I knew food and energy were the same. People regularly told me inflation was high when it was low because of these salient prices
Those commentators overwhelmingly expected the negative political impact would fade as inflation fell but
1)the public does not care about 1983 CPI changes- they see interest as a price
2) the salient high prices would still define people's thinking, as I predicted
And he links to his 2022 newsletter post about inflation v pricing: Prices, Prices, Prices. (Almost) Everything You Wanted to Know, but Were Too Annoyed to Ask.
posted by cendawanita at 8:59 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
The Joe Rogan endorsement at the end probably cemented the decision for many of them.
People belittle the Joe Rogan interview. But we should note the solemnity of the occasion, symbolized by the collared dress shirt worn by Joe in lieu of his customary T-shirt with a comic book character or scatological reference.
The shirt was woven from the neck tufts of a rare breed of yaks that roams the Tibetan plateau, individually selected by a contingent of Buddhist Lamas in a secret ritual.
Its dye originated from the carcasses of a beetle that lives in the Mauritian highlands. To avoid unnecessary damage, the beetles were transported across the Asian steppe by camel.
The threads of the shirt consisted of an alloy of platinum and 24 carat gold, woven into the shirt by titanium needles with diamond tips.
At the end of the interview, the shirt was ritualistically burnt in a ceremony in the Mojave desert. Flames from the bonfire reached one mile in height and were said to be visible from the moon.
posted by Gordion Knott at 9:00 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
People belittle the Joe Rogan interview. But we should note the solemnity of the occasion, symbolized by the collared dress shirt worn by Joe in lieu of his customary T-shirt with a comic book character or scatological reference.
The shirt was woven from the neck tufts of a rare breed of yaks that roams the Tibetan plateau, individually selected by a contingent of Buddhist Lamas in a secret ritual.
Its dye originated from the carcasses of a beetle that lives in the Mauritian highlands. To avoid unnecessary damage, the beetles were transported across the Asian steppe by camel.
The threads of the shirt consisted of an alloy of platinum and 24 carat gold, woven into the shirt by titanium needles with diamond tips.
At the end of the interview, the shirt was ritualistically burnt in a ceremony in the Mojave desert. Flames from the bonfire reached one mile in height and were said to be visible from the moon.
posted by Gordion Knott at 9:00 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
We're never getting progressive legislation again. We also don't deserve it.
yes I do. so do you.
posted by changeling at 9:01 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]
yes I do. so do you.
posted by changeling at 9:01 PM on November 6 [20 favorites]
yes I do. so do you.
Thank you, changeling. I feel angry at all the work that will be lost.
posted by ichomp at 9:04 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
Thank you, changeling. I feel angry at all the work that will be lost.
posted by ichomp at 9:04 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
So, the party of noted salt-of-the-earth everymen like JD Vance, Josh Hawley, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell is winning because the other party is too insufferably smug and condescending?
Again and again liberals fail to understand that when it comes to stuff like this they are not competing against the GOP, they are competing against voter apathy. We are not talking about voters who vote for republicans, we are talking about ostensibly democratic voters who don't bother.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:18 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Again and again liberals fail to understand that when it comes to stuff like this they are not competing against the GOP, they are competing against voter apathy. We are not talking about voters who vote for republicans, we are talking about ostensibly democratic voters who don't bother.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:18 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
> Again and again liberals fail to understand that when it comes to stuff like this they are not competing against the GOP, they are competing against voter apathy. We are not talking about voters who vote for republicans, we are talking about ostensibly democratic voters who don't bother.
It's both, actually? The people voting for the GOP hypocrites over the Democratic hypocrites can't just be hand-waved away. If you're saying Democrats being hypocrites *is why they lost*, but people are voting in droves for the far worse hypocrites, then your argument has no merit.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:27 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
It's both, actually? The people voting for the GOP hypocrites over the Democratic hypocrites can't just be hand-waved away. If you're saying Democrats being hypocrites *is why they lost*, but people are voting in droves for the far worse hypocrites, then your argument has no merit.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:27 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
People have made the point that Harris was promising small changes around the margins. Maybe the promise should have been bountiful generosity. "Once there was a weak old man named Biden who wouldn't give you things, but I, your mother-figure, will give you everything you need."
This is from so far upthread I hesitate to post, but I do think it's worth noting: Messaging around the hurricane responses (to Helene and Milton, but I'm mainly thinking of Helene in Appalachia) on the right was really seizing on public misunderstanding of who FEMA is and what FEMA does, and sowing as much mistrust and contempt for "the government" as possible.
I spend some time in right-wing online spaces and there were so, so, so many memes and shitposts about the "fact" that Kamala Harris (accompanied by an unflattering image of her laughing, of course) is so out of touch with the American people that she's offering people only $750 for all the destruction of homes and livelihoods. In truth, the $750 was meant to be a temporary payment to get people into hotel rooms and pay for emergency groceries & meds, and Kamala Harris isn't exactly the person in charge of that right now, but the right turned it into a real "let them eat cake" moment.
I don't know what she could've done differently, and I'm glad she didn't visit the region for extended photoshoots portraying "helping," but I wish there had been more effective messaging about the Biden Administration's response to the hurricanes, and more clarity around the benefits that are available to people affected.
Again, I don't think it's her fault per se. But she was up against an army of dishonest, terminally online right-wingers and they absolutely hate her guts. And they have the attention of the Rogan crowd, and many more.
posted by knotty knots at 9:29 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
This is from so far upthread I hesitate to post, but I do think it's worth noting: Messaging around the hurricane responses (to Helene and Milton, but I'm mainly thinking of Helene in Appalachia) on the right was really seizing on public misunderstanding of who FEMA is and what FEMA does, and sowing as much mistrust and contempt for "the government" as possible.
I spend some time in right-wing online spaces and there were so, so, so many memes and shitposts about the "fact" that Kamala Harris (accompanied by an unflattering image of her laughing, of course) is so out of touch with the American people that she's offering people only $750 for all the destruction of homes and livelihoods. In truth, the $750 was meant to be a temporary payment to get people into hotel rooms and pay for emergency groceries & meds, and Kamala Harris isn't exactly the person in charge of that right now, but the right turned it into a real "let them eat cake" moment.
I don't know what she could've done differently, and I'm glad she didn't visit the region for extended photoshoots portraying "helping," but I wish there had been more effective messaging about the Biden Administration's response to the hurricanes, and more clarity around the benefits that are available to people affected.
Again, I don't think it's her fault per se. But she was up against an army of dishonest, terminally online right-wingers and they absolutely hate her guts. And they have the attention of the Rogan crowd, and many more.
posted by knotty knots at 9:29 PM on November 6 [14 favorites]
Someone on Reddit asked Gen Z men who voted for Trump to explain themselves, and they are:
https://www.reddit.com/r/GenZ/comments/1gl78am/gen_z_men_have_swung_30_points_to_the_right_a/
The whole thread is kinda horrifying, but it's still information.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:32 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
https://www.reddit.com/r/GenZ/comments/1gl78am/gen_z_men_have_swung_30_points_to_the_right_a/
The whole thread is kinda horrifying, but it's still information.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:32 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
> but the facts show that most are doing better after adjusting for inflation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zhjw
or at least treading water.
Blue is wages, 2020 = 100. Red is rent inflation, green is all inflation. Funny how a good & service with nearly zero labor inputs went up the most. Not much of a wage-price spiral there. Guess Biden should have pushed Obama to get more housing built 2009-2010 when the Dems had that filibuster-proof Senate majority.
posted by torokunai at 9:32 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zhjw
or at least treading water.
Blue is wages, 2020 = 100. Red is rent inflation, green is all inflation. Funny how a good & service with nearly zero labor inputs went up the most. Not much of a wage-price spiral there. Guess Biden should have pushed Obama to get more housing built 2009-2010 when the Dems had that filibuster-proof Senate majority.
posted by torokunai at 9:32 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
> The whole thread is kinda horrifying, but it's still information.
Information is not the plural of anecdote. Extrapolating from a Reddit post is 1000x worse a sin in my mind than the haruspicy of reading into day-after exit polls that led to the question even being asked of them, as if they did it alone.
When more reliable numbers come in, I suspect Gen Z will be the generation that voted the least for Trump, and that the swing in their 2020 to 2024 votes toward Trump will be close to a rounding error. As much as this Gen Xer would love to blame the youngs, it was my generation primarily that fucked this.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:35 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Information is not the plural of anecdote. Extrapolating from a Reddit post is 1000x worse a sin in my mind than the haruspicy of reading into day-after exit polls that led to the question even being asked of them, as if they did it alone.
When more reliable numbers come in, I suspect Gen Z will be the generation that voted the least for Trump, and that the swing in their 2020 to 2024 votes toward Trump will be close to a rounding error. As much as this Gen Xer would love to blame the youngs, it was my generation primarily that fucked this.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:35 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Harris did get a Rogan invite, but declined citing scheduling conflicts
Rogan dictated the time and place to the sitting vice president of the United States and refused to travel to New York to do a one-hour interview.
Rogan dictated the time and place to the sitting vice president of the United States and refused to travel to New York to do a one-hour interview.
“They offered a date for Tuesday, but I would have had to travel to her and they only wanted to do an hour.”posted by kirkaracha at 9:42 PM on November 6 [9 favorites]
it’s not like I think a Rogan interview would have won it for her, but in the future I would want a candidate to be more willing to go out of their comfort zone with stuff like this
She did an interview on Fox. Trump didn't do an interview on 60 Minutes or MSNBC. So I say 1) fuck 2) that.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:44 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]
She did an interview on Fox. Trump didn't do an interview on 60 Minutes or MSNBC. So I say 1) fuck 2) that.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:44 PM on November 6 [24 favorites]
Sharon Quinsaat:
I just woke up to the news that Trump is again the president of the United States. I want to say I am surprised, but I am not. I have been conducting fieldwork in Hawaii since June 2023 for our project on immigrant conservatives. I spent 1.5 months with Filipinos and many other immigrants and Native Hawaiians who are Republicans in Hawaii just before the elections, most of them Trump supporters (there were some who are "Never Trump" Republicans). So many of them were former Democrats. I don't have a hot take right now, and my observations are perhaps limited because Hawaii is different from the mainland. And yes, Harris still won in Hawaii. But let me share what I found out while in the field. I have not processed my field notes and interview data yet, so these are preliminary:
(1) Many people have real material grievances (e.g., housing, high cost of living) that to them is not being addressed by the Democratic leadership (Hawaii has been dominated by Democrats for 70 years). They have been extremely dissatisfied by the leadership that, to them, is "not really interested in solving their economic problems." The appeal to identity politics and threat of fascism (the main campaign message of Harris) does not resonate with them. They have just completely lost faith in the Democratic Party, and the only alternative for them (because we are a two-party system) is the Republicans. One interviewee said, "They promised and then they sold us out" (rough translation). One woman who went door-to-door campaigning for Obama in 2008 and 2012 went 180 in 2016 and completely disdained Democrats. She said, "I almost lost my house. I'm in debt. I have lost trust in their ability to deliver."
Now why would an underpaid Filipino immigrant and a Native Hawaiian who has been on the waitlist to finally get a home put their faith on the Republican Party and Trump to their economic concerns. These groups have faced extreme racism (the racial structure in Hawaii is different) and economic hardship. None of it made sense to me. None at all. Until I saw first hand the information that they consume to understand why they are having these problems.
(2) Their sources of information are nothing we have never heard of. Yes, there is still that staple of Fox News and News Max. There's also a lot reading Epoch Times, One America News, and Rumble. But I had a deep conversation with a Native Hawaiian (let's call her Lily) who regards Trump as a demi-god. She showed me on her phone the stuff she reads and listens to everyday. I have never heard of them before, but we listened to them together. The conspiracy theories in these sites are WILD, to say the least. But she is convinced they are true. I have my research assistants look at these sites and influencer/analyst because they are so new to me.
Lily and I are living in two different worlds.
(3) We know our society is extremely polarized. Political scientists and sociologists have said that in this kind of environment, it's more about winning rather than voting what is best for the country. There's also a high level of social sorting. I saw this in my fieldwork. It's nothing new that we are in our own bubbles. We are siloed. We are not talking to people who we don't share politics with. But this has translated into voting so that the other camp loses. One interviewee said, "I'm voting Republican just to stick it to the Democrats." Another said, "I want Trump to win, so I will get the last laugh."
(4) They are organized. Very organized. Through their church networks, military family circles, hobby/interest-oriented groups. They are not going out to talk to people during elections. They do that even way before.
(5) The reason that many people in Hawaii are still Democrats is the unions. The unions have been doing the job not only in getting better wages for their workers but educating them and their families. Many community organizers are union members too going door-to-door. The universities remain elite spaces.
(6) The Dems made a serious error moving right, appealing to so-called moderate Republicans and alienating their progressive base. I asked an interviewee about this, "The Cheneys are endorsing Harris. What do you think of that?" He said, "Why would I vote for a Democrat who is liked by a few Republicans when there is already a Republican running?" One laughed, "I can't believe Harris is trying to charm Republicans. That means we have a lot of power. Let's show her." Palestine may not be a main issue for them, but in all of the discussions and town hall meetings I've been, they have brought up Biden giving away their money to Israel.
I'm still processing everything. But I just wanted to share my observation from hanging out with Trump supporters in Hawaii just before the elections.
posted by cendawanita at 9:53 PM on November 6 [63 favorites]
I just woke up to the news that Trump is again the president of the United States. I want to say I am surprised, but I am not. I have been conducting fieldwork in Hawaii since June 2023 for our project on immigrant conservatives. I spent 1.5 months with Filipinos and many other immigrants and Native Hawaiians who are Republicans in Hawaii just before the elections, most of them Trump supporters (there were some who are "Never Trump" Republicans). So many of them were former Democrats. I don't have a hot take right now, and my observations are perhaps limited because Hawaii is different from the mainland. And yes, Harris still won in Hawaii. But let me share what I found out while in the field. I have not processed my field notes and interview data yet, so these are preliminary:
(1) Many people have real material grievances (e.g., housing, high cost of living) that to them is not being addressed by the Democratic leadership (Hawaii has been dominated by Democrats for 70 years). They have been extremely dissatisfied by the leadership that, to them, is "not really interested in solving their economic problems." The appeal to identity politics and threat of fascism (the main campaign message of Harris) does not resonate with them. They have just completely lost faith in the Democratic Party, and the only alternative for them (because we are a two-party system) is the Republicans. One interviewee said, "They promised and then they sold us out" (rough translation). One woman who went door-to-door campaigning for Obama in 2008 and 2012 went 180 in 2016 and completely disdained Democrats. She said, "I almost lost my house. I'm in debt. I have lost trust in their ability to deliver."
Now why would an underpaid Filipino immigrant and a Native Hawaiian who has been on the waitlist to finally get a home put their faith on the Republican Party and Trump to their economic concerns. These groups have faced extreme racism (the racial structure in Hawaii is different) and economic hardship. None of it made sense to me. None at all. Until I saw first hand the information that they consume to understand why they are having these problems.
(2) Their sources of information are nothing we have never heard of. Yes, there is still that staple of Fox News and News Max. There's also a lot reading Epoch Times, One America News, and Rumble. But I had a deep conversation with a Native Hawaiian (let's call her Lily) who regards Trump as a demi-god. She showed me on her phone the stuff she reads and listens to everyday. I have never heard of them before, but we listened to them together. The conspiracy theories in these sites are WILD, to say the least. But she is convinced they are true. I have my research assistants look at these sites and influencer/analyst because they are so new to me.
Lily and I are living in two different worlds.
(3) We know our society is extremely polarized. Political scientists and sociologists have said that in this kind of environment, it's more about winning rather than voting what is best for the country. There's also a high level of social sorting. I saw this in my fieldwork. It's nothing new that we are in our own bubbles. We are siloed. We are not talking to people who we don't share politics with. But this has translated into voting so that the other camp loses. One interviewee said, "I'm voting Republican just to stick it to the Democrats." Another said, "I want Trump to win, so I will get the last laugh."
(4) They are organized. Very organized. Through their church networks, military family circles, hobby/interest-oriented groups. They are not going out to talk to people during elections. They do that even way before.
(5) The reason that many people in Hawaii are still Democrats is the unions. The unions have been doing the job not only in getting better wages for their workers but educating them and their families. Many community organizers are union members too going door-to-door. The universities remain elite spaces.
(6) The Dems made a serious error moving right, appealing to so-called moderate Republicans and alienating their progressive base. I asked an interviewee about this, "The Cheneys are endorsing Harris. What do you think of that?" He said, "Why would I vote for a Democrat who is liked by a few Republicans when there is already a Republican running?" One laughed, "I can't believe Harris is trying to charm Republicans. That means we have a lot of power. Let's show her." Palestine may not be a main issue for them, but in all of the discussions and town hall meetings I've been, they have brought up Biden giving away their money to Israel.
I'm still processing everything. But I just wanted to share my observation from hanging out with Trump supporters in Hawaii just before the elections.
posted by cendawanita at 9:53 PM on November 6 [63 favorites]
Tiny slice of life from today.
Pulled up on my bike next to a food delivery guy. Usually they're south Asian here, he looked maybe Filipino.
Phone on his handlebar blurts something something a la isquerda.
A nice thing about cycling is you often have little chats with strangers at the lights so I ask "hablas Español?"
Guy's surprised. We don't have many Hispanics down under and Spanish isn't widely known.
""Si"
"Buenos tardes, amigo".
"Buenos tardes".
Little things.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:47 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
Pulled up on my bike next to a food delivery guy. Usually they're south Asian here, he looked maybe Filipino.
Phone on his handlebar blurts something something a la isquerda.
A nice thing about cycling is you often have little chats with strangers at the lights so I ask "hablas Español?"
Guy's surprised. We don't have many Hispanics down under and Spanish isn't widely known.
""Si"
"Buenos tardes, amigo".
"Buenos tardes".
Little things.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:47 PM on November 6 [4 favorites]
This was Trump's election to lose. Harris made an amazing run -- every liberal thought that, once the polls had both candidates in a margin of error tie, she had won. But Trump was ahead the entire campaign, including the pre-Harris Biden period. Trump was America's choice from the git-go.
posted by CCBC at 10:51 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
posted by CCBC at 10:51 PM on November 6 [1 favorite]
Apparently in Missouri: Kayla Reed is an organizing powerhouse. Missouri went red for president and governor, and the on the ground organizing still was able to codify abortion, win paid sick leave, and get a $15 minimum wage. I know there is lot of despair but this is amazing
-----
I know I shared that Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and Ruwa Romman won reelection, but Summer Lee as well.
There is appetite for progressive politics in the US. Whether Dems will take the appropriate lessons is up to them.
posted by cendawanita at 10:59 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
-----
I know I shared that Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and Ruwa Romman won reelection, but Summer Lee as well.
There is appetite for progressive politics in the US. Whether Dems will take the appropriate lessons is up to them.
posted by cendawanita at 10:59 PM on November 6 [13 favorites]
Also: Perhaps there is a difference at the Presidential level, but I've been seeing a lot of wins for women candidates and feminist politics. The limitations of identity politics are being demonstrated - if I may venture, there's a disconnect/hypocrisy/disjuncture between what principles that identity is supposed to stand for that may penalize a woman candidate more. Trump may be a man but more than that a Republican doesn't have to suffer from this disconnect, because it really isn't hypocritical if they suck at the teat of Wall Street and rail about the national deficit.
posted by cendawanita at 11:05 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 11:05 PM on November 6 [3 favorites]
Hi Ghidorah, re your comment above
I saw on the news about the upcoming election and they interviewed someone in metro Detroit (where I am from) about voting for Kamala, and he said "I don't think so, I just don't know what she will do for me."
I just stared at my computer screen. I know this is at least in part my white (and middle class) privilege - but is this what people have been doing all the time? I have only ever voted for what is best (IMO) for the country. Nearly every time it's against my self-interest in nearly every way.
But I ask this because I wonder now - is this how everyone else is voting? Have I been missing the point??
posted by getawaysticks at 11:06 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
I saw on the news about the upcoming election and they interviewed someone in metro Detroit (where I am from) about voting for Kamala, and he said "I don't think so, I just don't know what she will do for me."
I just stared at my computer screen. I know this is at least in part my white (and middle class) privilege - but is this what people have been doing all the time? I have only ever voted for what is best (IMO) for the country. Nearly every time it's against my self-interest in nearly every way.
But I ask this because I wonder now - is this how everyone else is voting? Have I been missing the point??
posted by getawaysticks at 11:06 PM on November 6 [11 favorites]
The people voting for the GOP hypocrites over the Democratic hypocrites can't just be hand-waved away. If you're saying Democrats being hypocrites *is why they lost*, but people are voting in droves for the far worse hypocrites, then your argument has no merit.
Jesus Christ, I'm not even sure why I'm trying, it's not like anyone, much less the Democratic party, is going to listen, but this is why people need friends outside their bubbles, because there is a difference in what hypocrisy means. "I, too, am a sinner who fails to live up to what I preach, sometimes I dislike people and then realize they're my best option" does not come off as hypocrisy. It is an inherent truth of living in a fallen world. Of course you will fail. Everyone fails, everyone sins. The specific type of hypocrisy that people dislike in the Democrats is, to put it colloquially, pretending their shit doesn't stink.
The fact that there is actual argument upthread about 'nuh uh, the economy IS doing good, "most are doing better after adjusting for inflation" without accepting that that isn't the standard and that bar is in hell is pretending the Democrat's shit doesn't stink. Nobody gives a fuck if they are doing marginally better according to some objective standard. They are still doing shittily compared to where they had every reason to expect to be when they were young. Not only can they not raise a family on one wage anymore they can now barely raise a family on two.
The Democrats ran a campaign of "We don't need to make America great again, America is already great" when America is in motherfucking decline as a world power and as an economic power. That's claiming their shit doesn't stink and it's fucking laughable. Anyone over the age of 35 has seen American decline that would have been inconceivable to our parents. The Democrat's messaging was fucking stupid and shortsighted. There were a thousand ways to handle it. "Yes, let's get back to the good times when unions kept wages high enough to provide for a family" could have been a natural counter. "It's these fuckers who took away the good times by [Insert X Here]" could have been another one. But instead they wanted to play "Everything's Fine Because We Had Democrats In Charge And That Means Nothing Can Really Be Bad."
God, I really want to see the fucking Bernie Sanders timeline.
posted by corb at 11:09 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]
Jesus Christ, I'm not even sure why I'm trying, it's not like anyone, much less the Democratic party, is going to listen, but this is why people need friends outside their bubbles, because there is a difference in what hypocrisy means. "I, too, am a sinner who fails to live up to what I preach, sometimes I dislike people and then realize they're my best option" does not come off as hypocrisy. It is an inherent truth of living in a fallen world. Of course you will fail. Everyone fails, everyone sins. The specific type of hypocrisy that people dislike in the Democrats is, to put it colloquially, pretending their shit doesn't stink.
The fact that there is actual argument upthread about 'nuh uh, the economy IS doing good, "most are doing better after adjusting for inflation" without accepting that that isn't the standard and that bar is in hell is pretending the Democrat's shit doesn't stink. Nobody gives a fuck if they are doing marginally better according to some objective standard. They are still doing shittily compared to where they had every reason to expect to be when they were young. Not only can they not raise a family on one wage anymore they can now barely raise a family on two.
The Democrats ran a campaign of "We don't need to make America great again, America is already great" when America is in motherfucking decline as a world power and as an economic power. That's claiming their shit doesn't stink and it's fucking laughable. Anyone over the age of 35 has seen American decline that would have been inconceivable to our parents. The Democrat's messaging was fucking stupid and shortsighted. There were a thousand ways to handle it. "Yes, let's get back to the good times when unions kept wages high enough to provide for a family" could have been a natural counter. "It's these fuckers who took away the good times by [Insert X Here]" could have been another one. But instead they wanted to play "Everything's Fine Because We Had Democrats In Charge And That Means Nothing Can Really Be Bad."
God, I really want to see the fucking Bernie Sanders timeline.
posted by corb at 11:09 PM on November 6 [43 favorites]
"Buenos tardes, amigo".
Todos somos americanos.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:12 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Todos somos americanos.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:12 PM on November 6 [2 favorites]
Rogan dictated the time and place to the sitting vice president of the United States and refused to travel to New York to do a one-hour interview.
He’s got one of the biggest media platforms in the country, the point is it might be worth putting up with his terms. Trump came to him to do a three hour interview!
She did an interview on Fox. Trump didn't do an interview on 60 Minutes or MSNBC. So I say 1) fuck 2) that.
And that was good! But I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m getting at if you think it’s about being willing to face a hostile crowd or a tough interview (which is not something Joe Rogan is noted for). It’s not about Rogan specifically as the must-do interview for Harris specifically, either. It’s about Trump and his surrogates taking advantage of a lot of conversational, loosely structured, humanizing face time on goofy-ass shows with massive exposure among younger people (and young males in particular) and hoping Democratic candidates in the future can be more proactive about using “new media” like this.
posted by atoxyl at 11:15 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
He’s got one of the biggest media platforms in the country, the point is it might be worth putting up with his terms. Trump came to him to do a three hour interview!
She did an interview on Fox. Trump didn't do an interview on 60 Minutes or MSNBC. So I say 1) fuck 2) that.
And that was good! But I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m getting at if you think it’s about being willing to face a hostile crowd or a tough interview (which is not something Joe Rogan is noted for). It’s not about Rogan specifically as the must-do interview for Harris specifically, either. It’s about Trump and his surrogates taking advantage of a lot of conversational, loosely structured, humanizing face time on goofy-ass shows with massive exposure among younger people (and young males in particular) and hoping Democratic candidates in the future can be more proactive about using “new media” like this.
posted by atoxyl at 11:15 PM on November 6 [7 favorites]
We are not talking about voters who vote for republicans, we are talking about ostensibly democratic voters who don't bother.
Dude, Trump just won voters with incomes under $50k. Okay, it’s a narrow lead in an exit poll so I’m not going to say it’s authoritative but quite a few ostensibly and traditionally Democratic voters voted for Republicans this cycle.
posted by atoxyl at 11:25 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
Dude, Trump just won voters with incomes under $50k. Okay, it’s a narrow lead in an exit poll so I’m not going to say it’s authoritative but quite a few ostensibly and traditionally Democratic voters voted for Republicans this cycle.
posted by atoxyl at 11:25 PM on November 6 [5 favorites]
That is an excellent comment by corb re. inflation, hypocrisy, and related mental gymnastics being made in the aftermath. I would love to know what Democrat social media is pushing these philosophically and mathematically incorrect narratives.
posted by polymodus at 12:12 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
posted by polymodus at 12:12 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Democrat social media
Democratic, certainly? Isn't the official name Democratic and that the shortened Democrat has turned into a slur that even "respectable" news outlets use far too often, or always?
posted by porpoise at 12:19 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
Democratic, certainly? Isn't the official name Democratic and that the shortened Democrat has turned into a slur that even "respectable" news outlets use far too often, or always?
posted by porpoise at 12:19 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
Another small thought on the Dem identity/ soul-searching: I never quite liked the Biden student loan forgiveness plan as it felt a little too unevenly targeted at a subset of the population within a certain age/income/education range, and in hindsight, I wonder if this was another sore-point from some non-college educated working class folks who felt excluded or would have been more supportive of some broader type of education reform or loan reforms instead.
posted by p3t3 at 12:29 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by p3t3 at 12:29 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
Todos somos americanos.
Somos Australianos pero es lo mismo, más o menos.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:45 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
Somos Australianos pero es lo mismo, más o menos.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:45 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I'm no statistician, but I see one possible glimmer of hope in the returns. Trump got notably fewer votes than in 2020 -- he only romped because Harris got much, much fewer than Biden (and that deficit may not even be that bad once all votes are counted).
I wonder what this means for the supposed racial realignment some are talking about. Like, is it possible Trump won roughly the same percentage of the total Latino electorate as in the past, and that his vote share only appears higher because he won a greater share *of those who voted*, due to Dem-leaning Latinos staying home? In Starr County, Texas, for example, he improved on his 2020 total by only ~1,200 votes, but Harris underperformed Biden by 2,300. And that's with a county population of 65,000+, so anemic turnout all around.
The outcome is the same, obviously, but I'd feel much safer in a country that was merely temporarily apathetic than one where huge swaths of voters of all stripes were turning into MAGA zealots. For one thing, it would mean much greater odds of a public backlash if Trump overreaches.
posted by Rhaomi at 12:59 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
I wonder what this means for the supposed racial realignment some are talking about. Like, is it possible Trump won roughly the same percentage of the total Latino electorate as in the past, and that his vote share only appears higher because he won a greater share *of those who voted*, due to Dem-leaning Latinos staying home? In Starr County, Texas, for example, he improved on his 2020 total by only ~1,200 votes, but Harris underperformed Biden by 2,300. And that's with a county population of 65,000+, so anemic turnout all around.
The outcome is the same, obviously, but I'd feel much safer in a country that was merely temporarily apathetic than one where huge swaths of voters of all stripes were turning into MAGA zealots. For one thing, it would mean much greater odds of a public backlash if Trump overreaches.
posted by Rhaomi at 12:59 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
Probably the algorithm, but I'm getting videos of Black Americans who've set up consultancy services (basically) on how to move, eg East Africa; Southeast Asia (though ime I think East Africa is more of an anglophone region of the two, even Rwanda, but French still has presence). I think it would be clear these are of a certain class ability to take the plunge though.
posted by cendawanita at 2:11 AM on November 7
posted by cendawanita at 2:11 AM on November 7
A trend I've noticed is liberals attacking explanations for why they lost, a thing that objectively happened in reality as inherently flawed and unfair and able to be dismantled with the right argument. You can try for all the rhetorical judo flips you like; you still won't win the election. That's a ship that sailed. "I'm not a hypocrite, you're the real hypocrite!" might make you feel better, but the intent is not to make Harris fans feel bad, it's to figure out why the campaign didn't work. Maybe this thread should just close, maybe there isn't a real value to the conversation at this point, I don't know. I do know that telling people "your argument has no merit" won't unlose the election for you. Your argument has no merit.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 2:42 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 2:42 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]
Rhaomi, you live in a country where huge swaths of voters of all stripes have been MAGA zealots the whole time and one that's permanently apathetic by design.
I cannot hammer hard enough on the point that most people do not give a shit about politics, or world affairs, or economics or physics or chemistry or any of the overarching branches of knowledge about how the world actually works. Most people are wilfully ignorant as well as apathetic, except perhaps on issues that have touched them personally.
To every complex question there's a simple answer that's wrong, and that is the answer that most people prefer exactly because it's simple. Most people really really do not like to give more than a moment's thought to anything much, beyond working out how best to fit in with their peer group.
This is not a failing of Americans. It's a failing of people and it's the failing that the overarching purpose of education is to correct. Which neatly explains why so many of the people who benefit directly from the consequences of that failing are so all-fired keen to destroy public education and replace it with simplistic systems of jingoistic indoctrination. Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?
TFG will make America great again in the minds of his cultists even as he dismantles every objectively great feature that the nation they live in could ever lay claim to. Vital to his project is creating pain for his fairytale Great America that he can blame on an unending stream of Great Enemies, against whose wholly confected machinations the cult is kept so busy needing to "defend" itself that it never has time to look in the mirror and notice how well its facial injuries match his teeth and its own fists.
The man is a consummate con artist and, like ever other fascist demagogue, knows exactly how to work the Ghidorah principle to his own advantage.
Yes this is a patronizing, reductive, dismissive screed.
Correct, though.
posted by flabdablet at 2:47 AM on November 7 [18 favorites]
I cannot hammer hard enough on the point that most people do not give a shit about politics, or world affairs, or economics or physics or chemistry or any of the overarching branches of knowledge about how the world actually works. Most people are wilfully ignorant as well as apathetic, except perhaps on issues that have touched them personally.
To every complex question there's a simple answer that's wrong, and that is the answer that most people prefer exactly because it's simple. Most people really really do not like to give more than a moment's thought to anything much, beyond working out how best to fit in with their peer group.
This is not a failing of Americans. It's a failing of people and it's the failing that the overarching purpose of education is to correct. Which neatly explains why so many of the people who benefit directly from the consequences of that failing are so all-fired keen to destroy public education and replace it with simplistic systems of jingoistic indoctrination. Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?
TFG will make America great again in the minds of his cultists even as he dismantles every objectively great feature that the nation they live in could ever lay claim to. Vital to his project is creating pain for his fairytale Great America that he can blame on an unending stream of Great Enemies, against whose wholly confected machinations the cult is kept so busy needing to "defend" itself that it never has time to look in the mirror and notice how well its facial injuries match his teeth and its own fists.
The man is a consummate con artist and, like ever other fascist demagogue, knows exactly how to work the Ghidorah principle to his own advantage.
Yes this is a patronizing, reductive, dismissive screed.
Correct, though.
posted by flabdablet at 2:47 AM on November 7 [18 favorites]
In the end, America succumbed to Fascism because standing up to it was just too much of a bother, and rolling over for it was easier. That's the story of the election.
More people decided to vote for a fascist than the only person who could stop him. They tied themselves into ridiculous ideological knots to justify their nihilism, and here we are.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:49 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]
More people decided to vote for a fascist than the only person who could stop him. They tied themselves into ridiculous ideological knots to justify their nihilism, and here we are.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:49 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]
> God, I really want to see the fucking Bernie Sanders timeline.
@BernieSanders: "Statement on the Results of the 2024 Presidential Election"[1,2]
on the home front...
Study: Mass Deportation Could Put 28 Million People at Risk of Family Separation - "More than 28 million members of mixed–immigration status households in the United States are at risk of deportation or family separation if mass deportation policies, such as those supported by former President Donald Trump, are enacted next year, according to a report from FWD.us, an immigration advocacy organization. Mass deportation is already known to carry a steep economic toll. The moral cost may be just as high."
Inside Trump's plan for mass deportations - and who wants to stop him - "Donald Trump is expected to mobilize agencies across the U.S. government to help him deport record numbers of immigrants, building on efforts in his first term to tap all available resources and pressure so-called 'sanctuary' jurisdictions to cooperate, according to six former Trump officials and allies."
-Project 2025 - Big Government Layoffs? : r/nova
-What Trump's win means for the federal workforce
-Beyond Schedule F, Trump has 'arsenal' of ways to target federal employees
and lest we forget...
Trump's reelection has sweeping climate change consequences - "Project 2025, an initiative of the Heritage Foundation that included participation by many individuals involved in the first Trump administration, calls for privatizing the National Weather Service and breaking up NOAA. This could leave Americans with no public weather forecasting and warning provider, with a splintering of that life-saving function to a variety of private companies that could charge for such information."
meanwhile in foreign policy...
Trump's Return Gives Israel a Gap to Derail Iran's Nuclear Plans - "Israel sees Donald Trump's dramatic US election victory as freeing its hand to press on with the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah and even contemplate strikes aimed at disabling Iran's nuclear program."
With Trump back in White House, can Ukraine opt for nuclear deterrence? - "Experts say that, from a technological perspective, Ukraine is capable of making a nuclear bomb."
also btw, the cyberpunk future nobody wants:
-Trump's new world order
-Ian Bremmer on Trump's win
-Project 2025 Is No Match for MAGA Dysfunction
posted by kliuless at 3:34 AM on November 7 [35 favorites]
@BernieSanders: "Statement on the Results of the 2024 Presidential Election"[1,2]
It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. First, it I was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they're right.re: "if Trump overreaches" (unmasking face-eating-leopard fascism to most people beyond their baseline willful ignorance?)
Today, while the very rich are doing phenomenally well, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and we have more income and wealth inequality than ever before. Unbelievably, real, inflation-accounted-for weekly wages for the average American worker are actually lower now than they were 50 years ago.
Today, despite an explosion in technology and worker productivity, many young people will have a worse standard of living than their parents. And many of them. worry that Artificial Intelligence and robotics will make a bad situation even worse.
Today, despite spending far more per capita than other countries, we remain the only wealthy nation not to guarantee health care to all as a human right and we pay, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs. We, alone among major countries, cannot even guarantee paid family and medical leave.
Today, despite strong opposition from a majority of Americans, we continue to spend billions funding the extremist Netanyahu government's all out war against the Palestinian people which has led to the horrific humanitarian disaster of mass malnutrition and the starvation of thousands of children.
Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful Oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not.
In the coming weeks and months those of us concerned about grassroots democracy and economic justice need to have some very serious political discussions.
Stay tuned.
on the home front...
Study: Mass Deportation Could Put 28 Million People at Risk of Family Separation - "More than 28 million members of mixed–immigration status households in the United States are at risk of deportation or family separation if mass deportation policies, such as those supported by former President Donald Trump, are enacted next year, according to a report from FWD.us, an immigration advocacy organization. Mass deportation is already known to carry a steep economic toll. The moral cost may be just as high."
Inside Trump's plan for mass deportations - and who wants to stop him - "Donald Trump is expected to mobilize agencies across the U.S. government to help him deport record numbers of immigrants, building on efforts in his first term to tap all available resources and pressure so-called 'sanctuary' jurisdictions to cooperate, according to six former Trump officials and allies."
Trump backers - including some who could enter his second administration - anticipate the Republican president-elect will call on everyone from the U.S. military to diplomats overseas to turn his campaign promise of mass deportations into a reality. The effort would include cooperation with Republican-led states and use federal funding as leverage against resistant jurisdictions...speaking of purging personnel...
But a deportation operation targeting millions would require many more officers, detention beds and immigration court judges. American Immigration Council, an immigrant advocacy group, estimated the cost of deporting 13 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally as $968 billion over a little more than a decade.
Tom Homan, a former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) expected to join the new administration, said in a late October interview that the scale of the deportations would hinge on potential officers and detention space.
“It all depends on what the budget is,” he said.
While the incoming Trump administration could benefit from experience gained during his first term, it could again encounter resistance from ideologically opposed government employees, including officers that screen migrants for asylum.
The American Civil Liberties Union and immigrant advocacy groups have been preparing for court battles if Trump again tests the bounds of his legal authority...
The State Department in particular could be one place where Trump acts more aggressively than during his first term, several Trump backers said.
A key factor will be whether other countries will accept their citizens, an issue Trump faced with limited success during his first term. The Trump administration also struggled at times to convince other nations in the region - including Mexico - to take steps to stop migrants from moving toward the U.S.-Mexico border...
About half of ICE’s 21,000 employees are part of its Homeland Security Investigations unit, which focuses on transnational crime such as drug smuggling and child exploitation rather than immigration enforcement. Several Trump allies said the unit would need to spend more time on immigration.
HSI has distanced itself from ICE’s immigration work in recent years, saying fear of deportation made it harder for its investigators to build trust in immigrant communities.
Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump's first-term immigration agenda, said in 2023 that National Guard troops from cooperative states could potentially be deployed to resistant states to assist with deportations, which would likely trigger legal battles.
Trump plans to use a 1798 wartime statute known as the Alien Enemies Act to rapidly deport alleged gang members, an action that would almost certainly be challenged in court.
The law has been used three times, according to the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice: the War of 1812, World War One, and World War Two, when it was employed to justify internment camps for people of Japanese, German and Italian descent...
George Fishman, a former DHS official under Trump, said the Trump administration would need to prove the immigrants were sent by a foreign government.
“I worry a little about overpromising,” Fishman said.
-Project 2025 - Big Government Layoffs? : r/nova
-What Trump's win means for the federal workforce
-Beyond Schedule F, Trump has 'arsenal' of ways to target federal employees
and lest we forget...
Trump's reelection has sweeping climate change consequences - "Project 2025, an initiative of the Heritage Foundation that included participation by many individuals involved in the first Trump administration, calls for privatizing the National Weather Service and breaking up NOAA. This could leave Americans with no public weather forecasting and warning provider, with a splintering of that life-saving function to a variety of private companies that could charge for such information."
meanwhile in foreign policy...
Trump's Return Gives Israel a Gap to Derail Iran's Nuclear Plans - "Israel sees Donald Trump's dramatic US election victory as freeing its hand to press on with the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah and even contemplate strikes aimed at disabling Iran's nuclear program."
The likelihood of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities has increased, said Nadav Shtrauchler, a former Netanyahu adviser. “Bibi is the son of a historian and quite the historian himself, and he knows how to track big events for the right opportunity,” he said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname...Allies Fret Over Trump Presidency as Authoritarian Axis Challenges U.S.-Led Order - "Western capitals brace for White House shifts on trade and security as cooperation among China, Russia, Iran and North Korea deepens."
An Israeli official familiar with the thinking inside the nation’s security cabinet said the handover period in the US could provide Israel with a window in which to attack against Iran’s nuclear program, which Netanyahu considers to be an existential danger.
“The way the Iranian authorities will read this outcome will be, I think, to try to accelerate their nuclear program so as to acquire a nuclear deterrent to protect the safety of their regime—because of the fear that there could be an agenda of regime change inside Iran,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Edam think tank in Istanbul...Taiwan Can't Shake Its Nuclear Ghosts - "Taiwan's covert nuclear weapons program began in earnest following China's first successful nuclear test in 1964."
In Japan and in South Korea alike, the new sense of uncertainty is likely to reopen debates about indigenous military capabilities, including potential nuclear weapons.
With Trump back in White House, can Ukraine opt for nuclear deterrence? - "Experts say that, from a technological perspective, Ukraine is capable of making a nuclear bomb."
also btw, the cyberpunk future nobody wants:
- Russian Drone Jockeys Hunt Front-Line Shop Clerks and Repairmen in Ukraine - "Russian drones are hunting civilians in Kherson, unleashing a new kind of terror on Ukraine's largest front-line city."
- The Nerdy Gamers Who Became Ukraine's Deadliest Drone Pilots - "Aerial-drone pilots are the deadliest soldiers on the modern battlefield, just as machine-gunners or snipers were in the last century."
-Trump's new world order
-Ian Bremmer on Trump's win
-Project 2025 Is No Match for MAGA Dysfunction
posted by kliuless at 3:34 AM on November 7 [35 favorites]
all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can; meanwhile all the brown people
This sort of unqualified, brutally reductive stereotyping is symptomatic of the unattractive inverted racism/"white guilt" in progressive spaces. It makes me feel strangely othered, and I don't think it's doing anyone any electoral favors. As a kind of general well-intentioned fellow-feeling with "the browns" it is not just patronizing but also misguided, given that some of the top US companies are headed by "brown people". We are right here.
Otherwise, look out for yourself and one another. It's been a hell of a ride, and it's not over yet. Peace.
posted by dmh at 3:51 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
This sort of unqualified, brutally reductive stereotyping is symptomatic of the unattractive inverted racism/"white guilt" in progressive spaces. It makes me feel strangely othered, and I don't think it's doing anyone any electoral favors. As a kind of general well-intentioned fellow-feeling with "the browns" it is not just patronizing but also misguided, given that some of the top US companies are headed by "brown people". We are right here.
Otherwise, look out for yourself and one another. It's been a hell of a ride, and it's not over yet. Peace.
posted by dmh at 3:51 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
a friend sends freak out! by my robot friend: "When I look at the world, all I want to do is runaway; but, I know in my heart that I'm gonna stay"
posted by kliuless at 4:00 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
posted by kliuless at 4:00 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
A little brightspot: Trump whistleblower Eugene Vindman won a seat in the US House!
posted by hydropsyche at 4:25 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 4:25 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Bright spot? Vindman loves the ongoing genocide
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:30 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:30 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I can't find a link to it now, but a great example of their stupidity was that tweet complaining that a huge amount of fentanyl had just been seized at the border and when were Biden and Harris going to do something about it, with a response pointing out that it was Biden administration's border patrol had just seized a huge amount fentanyl and prevented it from coming into the country... what can you do when they don't even think through the logical implications of THEIR OWN WORDS???The irony here is that drug seizures are at best rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, and at worst actively making the drug supply more toxic and more violent.
posted by The genius who rejected Anno's budget proposal. at 4:36 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
Todos somos americanos
Libera te tutemet ex inferis.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:46 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
Libera te tutemet ex inferis.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:46 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I appreciate reading everyone’s take on the election result.
I am gutted, and feel the obvious feelings of a woman seeing a fucking asshole guy fail upwards.
Something that I am not sure has been reflected upon in the thread, or as much of it as I have read, is that Trump had vitriol and splutter on a range of abusive targets, but his ‘economy’ focus never veered this cycle from his focus on extractive industries and tariffs.
Trump has waved away the trillions of dollars these will impose. So have his followers. They may think it’s Amazon crap, but it is a geopolitical dagger to wield over China whose vast investment in green steel, green tech etc requires vast rare earth minerals, and access to them. Obviously so does any other ascendant economy. In my Australian extractive resource heavy state, we have a good view on how these kinds of dances work with China. We are watching a few playing out with Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG iron ore globalists with our government and the threat we might exert tariffs on China’s thirsty need for steel. [Our richest woman Gina Rinehart Roy Hill Hope Downs etc miner was sitting with Trump at his Mar a Lago yesterday]
It is clearly the chief platform -
Take Trump’s victory speech. He made absolutely clear that he didnt give a fuck what happened with anything like Project 25 or trans or women or schools, health [he said that RFK could do what the fuck he wanted with it] but HE would be in charge of extractive industry - all the beautiful gold fluid’ of oil - spending minutes describing how much more of it the USA has than Saudi, more than a list of countries.
This was not a cartoon character doing whatever weird stuff he does for amusement. It felt to me like watching the gleeful hand rubbing of a guy about to Gaz Prom himself and cronies into stratospheric oligarchy. Without complete systems control, ie not democracy, there is no stratospheric Putinesque oligarchy.
Australia is experiencing US strategising first hand right now. Quietly, but obvious to geopoliticians, China is setting up for rare earth minerals extraction on our territory in Antartica. The USA has dipped out of its AUKUS deal to supply us with the needed submarines to patrol that territory. By 2030 when the international treaty preventing extraction in the Antarctic expires, and when we were supposed to have our AUKUS subs to protect this territory, we will have nada. Sea ports, bases and all infrastructures are being set up ready to go. Instead of our own sovereignty interests in being owners of protective hardware, we are now deftly being cornered into a fealty payment to the US. Our claim on our huge rare earth minerals is going to be grifted away from us, and we are going to pay the USA to make sure they get the extractions instead of China.
I can’t imagine how much more despotically this is going to be played out.
posted by honey-barbara at 4:54 AM on November 7 [24 favorites]
I am gutted, and feel the obvious feelings of a woman seeing a fucking asshole guy fail upwards.
Something that I am not sure has been reflected upon in the thread, or as much of it as I have read, is that Trump had vitriol and splutter on a range of abusive targets, but his ‘economy’ focus never veered this cycle from his focus on extractive industries and tariffs.
Trump has waved away the trillions of dollars these will impose. So have his followers. They may think it’s Amazon crap, but it is a geopolitical dagger to wield over China whose vast investment in green steel, green tech etc requires vast rare earth minerals, and access to them. Obviously so does any other ascendant economy. In my Australian extractive resource heavy state, we have a good view on how these kinds of dances work with China. We are watching a few playing out with Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG iron ore globalists with our government and the threat we might exert tariffs on China’s thirsty need for steel. [Our richest woman Gina Rinehart Roy Hill Hope Downs etc miner was sitting with Trump at his Mar a Lago yesterday]
It is clearly the chief platform -
Take Trump’s victory speech. He made absolutely clear that he didnt give a fuck what happened with anything like Project 25 or trans or women or schools, health [he said that RFK could do what the fuck he wanted with it] but HE would be in charge of extractive industry - all the beautiful gold fluid’ of oil - spending minutes describing how much more of it the USA has than Saudi, more than a list of countries.
This was not a cartoon character doing whatever weird stuff he does for amusement. It felt to me like watching the gleeful hand rubbing of a guy about to Gaz Prom himself and cronies into stratospheric oligarchy. Without complete systems control, ie not democracy, there is no stratospheric Putinesque oligarchy.
Australia is experiencing US strategising first hand right now. Quietly, but obvious to geopoliticians, China is setting up for rare earth minerals extraction on our territory in Antartica. The USA has dipped out of its AUKUS deal to supply us with the needed submarines to patrol that territory. By 2030 when the international treaty preventing extraction in the Antarctic expires, and when we were supposed to have our AUKUS subs to protect this territory, we will have nada. Sea ports, bases and all infrastructures are being set up ready to go. Instead of our own sovereignty interests in being owners of protective hardware, we are now deftly being cornered into a fealty payment to the US. Our claim on our huge rare earth minerals is going to be grifted away from us, and we are going to pay the USA to make sure they get the extractions instead of China.
I can’t imagine how much more despotically this is going to be played out.
posted by honey-barbara at 4:54 AM on November 7 [24 favorites]
Bright spot? Vindman loves the ongoing genocide
How's this broadest-brush-ever-to-exist rhetoric working out again? Is it doing anything to help Gaza? Or do people have to call for policy initiatives that would tank their run and accomplish nothing but ceding power to worse people to pass your litmus test?
Eugene Vindman offers tough love to Israel as he pursues congressional campaign [Jewish Insider, via Archive]
Vindman says he’d use his background as a war crimes prosecutor to train a critical eye on Israel’s operations in Gaza, emphasizing the need for thorough scrutiny of any potential wrongdoing.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:58 AM on November 7 [28 favorites]
How's this broadest-brush-ever-to-exist rhetoric working out again? Is it doing anything to help Gaza? Or do people have to call for policy initiatives that would tank their run and accomplish nothing but ceding power to worse people to pass your litmus test?
Eugene Vindman offers tough love to Israel as he pursues congressional campaign [Jewish Insider, via Archive]
Vindman says he’d use his background as a war crimes prosecutor to train a critical eye on Israel’s operations in Gaza, emphasizing the need for thorough scrutiny of any potential wrongdoing.
Two days after the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre, Vindman wrote a tweet warning that “Israel will need to restrain its bloodlust to punish only those culpable for the slaughter.”Vindman's whistleblowing and the consequences borne for it have been far more meaningful than online snark from people whose understanding of 'war crimes' is entirely based on tweets from dubious posters.
He told JI that his warning was a reflection of lessons learned by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan, which he said the U.S. had “failed to prosecute… effectively because we were driven by emotion.” He said that eliminating Hamas is a worthwhile goal but argued both as a commander and lawyer, that “discipline is critically important” in focusing on achieving military goals.
Vindman said, “as a responsible international actor, [Israel] has an obligation to conduct operations in accordance with the law of war and international criminal law,” which bans targeting civilians and civilian objects, mandates that it only attack lawful targets, requires it to distinguish between civilian and military targets and be proportionate in its attacks.
“Where Israel fails in this, it must conduct thorough investigations,” he said. “I am a supporter of Israel but I also acknowledge that Israel needs to live up to its obligations” — even though Hamas does not abide by them.
“They have a right to self-defense, but they don’t get a free pass to do whatever they want...”
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:58 AM on November 7 [28 favorites]
New Zealander here. We have our own crank right-wing government, with a three party coalition dominated by horrible populists (NZ First) and vicious capitalists (ACT) with a side of racism, transphobia and cronyism, who are doing their best to tear down everything good that the Ardern government ever did as fast as they can. Rule of law is holding up pretty well here and it's not BAD bad but it isn't great right now either. You also are going to have really massive culture shock.
Thank you, i_am_joe's_spleen. Your take as an actual resident of NZ proves the point that Americans know nothing of the politics of where they think or hope they can escape to.
People can post about the logistics all they want about visas but unless you actually have an inkling of what's happening elsewhere right now, it's simply naive. I mean, lbr, America's chief export right now is infecting other countries with what we've done here. The US has made fascism inspirational.
posted by Kitteh at 5:00 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Thank you, i_am_joe's_spleen. Your take as an actual resident of NZ proves the point that Americans know nothing of the politics of where they think or hope they can escape to.
People can post about the logistics all they want about visas but unless you actually have an inkling of what's happening elsewhere right now, it's simply naive. I mean, lbr, America's chief export right now is infecting other countries with what we've done here. The US has made fascism inspirational.
posted by Kitteh at 5:00 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
The Democrat's messaging was fucking stupid and shortsighted. There were a thousand ways to handle it. "Yes, let's get back to the good times when unions kept wages high enough to provide for a family" could have been a natural counter...
YES
God, I really want to see the fucking Bernie Sanders timeline.
NO
The idea that he would have won more than about six states is so absolutely laughable. His support was real deep among his fans and nowhere else, and the Republicans would have used every stupid thing he said over 40 years of not actually achieving anything to turn the election into a Mondale-style debacle. In hindsight, I wish this had happened, just to put to rest the notion that an Ardent Progressive would ever win a national election. You and others are absolutely correct (and so is he TBF) that the Democratic Party needs to embrace working-class politics, but the man himself is radioactive.
That said, I wrote way upthread that the best thing the Dems could do is create a focus group of about 50 actual working-class people, not the kind of fantasy working-class people someone I think was you was talking about, where they stock grocery shelves but sound like people who went to graduate school, but rather the sort who like to do things people who went to graduate school typically do not. Demographically accurate, but also filled with the kind of minorities who also aren't fantasy minorities who sound like they went to graduate school. No policy idea, nor slogan, nor potential candidate that does not gain at least 2/3 support among the focus group moves forward. All the consultants are immediately fired.
Everyone in the Dem establishment and most of the people here will absolutely squawk, because one of the first things to get tossed will be super progressive social policies like transgender stuff, NOT because these people are evil or insufficiently enlightened (which is what all the consultants/establishment would say) but because they have way bigger fish to fry as far as kitchen-table issues go. They're real unlikely to come up with policies terrible for transgender people (and I'm using "transgender" here as a shorthand for a whole host of policies/priorities beloved by the grad-school Dem establishment and seen as at best beside the point by sooo many others) but it's more like a "live and let live, but that is nowhere in our top 20 priorities" thing. So is Gaza, for that matter.
There's a huge, huge majority of people who want way more progressive economic policies, but they're spread out all over the spectrum of social policies, and one big way in which the Dem establishment is stupid and shortsighted is that they reaally emphasize the social policies and neevver emphasize the economic ones—whether this is out of sheer cluelessness or capture by donor-class interests is kind of a both/and thing—which leaves literally tens of millions of easily-persuadable voters on the table. And this is where Saint Bernie is totally correct: his critique of the system and of the Dems is and always has been spot on, even if he's laughable as a candidate.
I've probably pissed off literally everyone here at this point, but it's a free country, at least until January 20, and if we're talking about how to create a winning coalition, that's the way forward. When Harris/Walz were making fun of Trump for being weird and creepy, they did pretty well, but the consultant/donor class made them stop it, and that's where we started to lose. It would be far more successful to openly frame the Democrats as a coalition rather than a party: just bring it out into the open that the only thing we all really have in common is not wanting Shitty Gilead, and thereby muffling a lot of the internal conflicts by pointing at them and pragmatically shrugging them off.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:08 AM on November 7 [20 favorites]
YES
God, I really want to see the fucking Bernie Sanders timeline.
NO
The idea that he would have won more than about six states is so absolutely laughable. His support was real deep among his fans and nowhere else, and the Republicans would have used every stupid thing he said over 40 years of not actually achieving anything to turn the election into a Mondale-style debacle. In hindsight, I wish this had happened, just to put to rest the notion that an Ardent Progressive would ever win a national election. You and others are absolutely correct (and so is he TBF) that the Democratic Party needs to embrace working-class politics, but the man himself is radioactive.
That said, I wrote way upthread that the best thing the Dems could do is create a focus group of about 50 actual working-class people, not the kind of fantasy working-class people someone I think was you was talking about, where they stock grocery shelves but sound like people who went to graduate school, but rather the sort who like to do things people who went to graduate school typically do not. Demographically accurate, but also filled with the kind of minorities who also aren't fantasy minorities who sound like they went to graduate school. No policy idea, nor slogan, nor potential candidate that does not gain at least 2/3 support among the focus group moves forward. All the consultants are immediately fired.
Everyone in the Dem establishment and most of the people here will absolutely squawk, because one of the first things to get tossed will be super progressive social policies like transgender stuff, NOT because these people are evil or insufficiently enlightened (which is what all the consultants/establishment would say) but because they have way bigger fish to fry as far as kitchen-table issues go. They're real unlikely to come up with policies terrible for transgender people (and I'm using "transgender" here as a shorthand for a whole host of policies/priorities beloved by the grad-school Dem establishment and seen as at best beside the point by sooo many others) but it's more like a "live and let live, but that is nowhere in our top 20 priorities" thing. So is Gaza, for that matter.
There's a huge, huge majority of people who want way more progressive economic policies, but they're spread out all over the spectrum of social policies, and one big way in which the Dem establishment is stupid and shortsighted is that they reaally emphasize the social policies and neevver emphasize the economic ones—whether this is out of sheer cluelessness or capture by donor-class interests is kind of a both/and thing—which leaves literally tens of millions of easily-persuadable voters on the table. And this is where Saint Bernie is totally correct: his critique of the system and of the Dems is and always has been spot on, even if he's laughable as a candidate.
I've probably pissed off literally everyone here at this point, but it's a free country, at least until January 20, and if we're talking about how to create a winning coalition, that's the way forward. When Harris/Walz were making fun of Trump for being weird and creepy, they did pretty well, but the consultant/donor class made them stop it, and that's where we started to lose. It would be far more successful to openly frame the Democrats as a coalition rather than a party: just bring it out into the open that the only thing we all really have in common is not wanting Shitty Gilead, and thereby muffling a lot of the internal conflicts by pointing at them and pragmatically shrugging them off.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:08 AM on November 7 [20 favorites]
So Vindmans beyond reproach? Can’t point out his shitty policies because he’s better than anonymous online comments? Wtf
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:16 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:16 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Awesome note Faecbook post form a local organizer in my community:
Have had 4 different people ask me today what the plan is. It's the same plan we've always had. The plan has not changed. You pick one organization in your community that you care about, that is in any way at all Doing The Work, and you give it some of your time, skill, love. That was also the plan if she won.posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:16 AM on November 7 [19 favorites]
proves the point that Americans know nothing of the politics of where they think or hope they can escape to
And then there's the cohort I'm always banging on about, the one that knows nothing of the politics of where they already live.
Kimmel
posted by flabdablet at 5:20 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
And then there's the cohort I'm always banging on about, the one that knows nothing of the politics of where they already live.
Kimmel
posted by flabdablet at 5:20 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Can’t point out his shitty policies
Ah yes, the sophisticated policy talking point of 'this war crimes prosecutor who blew the whistle on Russia during Trump's term and called for restraint before the operation even began' "loves genocide" and anyone who posts anything contrary to your throwaway bomb-tossing must be doing "genocide apologia."
And should "go away" and disappear.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:21 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Ah yes, the sophisticated policy talking point of 'this war crimes prosecutor who blew the whistle on Russia during Trump's term and called for restraint before the operation even began' "loves genocide" and anyone who posts anything contrary to your throwaway bomb-tossing must be doing "genocide apologia."
And should "go away" and disappear.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:21 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Look at Vindman’s public statements on Israel. It’s appalling. I’m sorry this is your first time encountering inconsistency and hypocrisy when it comes to extending human rights to Palestinians
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:31 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:31 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
I want to thank all the loyal members, subscribers, and viewers of our live show. We will go on and are assessing last night’s results. Please tune in on Thursday at 9 PM Eastern for a discussion of what happened and what the future holds for America.Alan Lichtman
posted by y2karl at 5:31 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I’m sorry this is your first time encountering inconsistency and hypocrisy
I'm sorry that even this election result has done nothing to improve your ability to engage in good faith. But, sure, insult me and jump off the turnbuckle at any member who posts anything from any source or about anyone you don't think is righteous enough on Gaza, no matter the context.
That will surely help something, right? Where's that user muting extension again....
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:33 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
I'm sorry that even this election result has done nothing to improve your ability to engage in good faith. But, sure, insult me and jump off the turnbuckle at any member who posts anything from any source or about anyone you don't think is righteous enough on Gaza, no matter the context.
That will surely help something, right? Where's that user muting extension again....
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:33 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
corb: And like - similarly, the Dems back racial minorities to the extent that those racial minorities act like white urban professionals. They do not back them when they are inconveniently religious, or want large families... talk about men and masculinity has been deeply run through an urban lens in ways that have nothing to do with women's freedom from patriarchy and everything to do with urban preferences around masculinity... He wasn't one of those charismatic hypersexed men! ... And like - that's just an urban preference, and has nothing to do with racial equality.
I like your comment because it makes me think, corb.
But I still get stuck on the fact that religion and hypermasculinity have given birth to patriarchal authoritarianism again and again and again and again over the past few thousand years, from Sennacherib to Charlemagne to Franco to a thousand more before, after, and in between.
It's a weed, an invasive plant, that'll grow from "isn't that flower cute in my garden, isn't this religious ceremony nice, isn't that guy with the commanding presence and rippling abs so hot?" into the same old dominant patriarchal bullshit that takes over the whole culture if it isn't nipped in the bud, ripped out from the roots, sprayed down with pesticides.
People don't gain the ability to induce reverence, command obedience, and physically overpower, and then just leave those things as delightful toys.
There's a similar dynamic with wealth inequality. Once it starts, it's very difficult to stop. That's why the groups that succeed in staying equal, the ones that stay communal, destroy every hint of it as soon as it arises. "Demand sharing" doesn't work after wealth inequality has started, it only works if every hint of wealth inequality is immediately destroyed.
So... yeah... hmm. You're appealing to my liberal desire to say that I accept all lifestyles and all sorts of people. But you're also triggering my fear/knowledge that it's just about impossible to celebrate dangerous sexy masculinity and religious reverence without ending up under authoritarian patriarchy.
Are my fears overblown?
posted by clawsoon at 5:35 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]
I like your comment because it makes me think, corb.
But I still get stuck on the fact that religion and hypermasculinity have given birth to patriarchal authoritarianism again and again and again and again over the past few thousand years, from Sennacherib to Charlemagne to Franco to a thousand more before, after, and in between.
It's a weed, an invasive plant, that'll grow from "isn't that flower cute in my garden, isn't this religious ceremony nice, isn't that guy with the commanding presence and rippling abs so hot?" into the same old dominant patriarchal bullshit that takes over the whole culture if it isn't nipped in the bud, ripped out from the roots, sprayed down with pesticides.
People don't gain the ability to induce reverence, command obedience, and physically overpower, and then just leave those things as delightful toys.
There's a similar dynamic with wealth inequality. Once it starts, it's very difficult to stop. That's why the groups that succeed in staying equal, the ones that stay communal, destroy every hint of it as soon as it arises. "Demand sharing" doesn't work after wealth inequality has started, it only works if every hint of wealth inequality is immediately destroyed.
So... yeah... hmm. You're appealing to my liberal desire to say that I accept all lifestyles and all sorts of people. But you're also triggering my fear/knowledge that it's just about impossible to celebrate dangerous sexy masculinity and religious reverence without ending up under authoritarian patriarchy.
Are my fears overblown?
posted by clawsoon at 5:35 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]
Mod note: A comment and response removed, some responses left up for contet.
MisantropicPainforest, please consider either taking a break from this thread or dialing back on snarky/attacky comments.
General note: criticism of politicians and their views and actions is fine, of course, but please avoid diminishing your fellow community members.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 5:37 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
MisantropicPainforest, please consider either taking a break from this thread or dialing back on snarky/attacky comments.
General note: criticism of politicians and their views and actions is fine, of course, but please avoid diminishing your fellow community members.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 5:37 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
For the last year or so I've listened pretty frequently to "The Bulwark" podcast. They're a bunch of 'never-Trump' republicans, and lately spiced up with some less conservative voices here and there. Yesterdays podcast though, with Sarah Longwell and Jonathan V. Last is... not very optimistic. So, if you're looking for uplift, don't listen.
(Trump is a beast driven by vengeace - he "pisses ice-water" to quote a certain ex-attorney of his - and when he starts to exercise that will be a decisive moment for the country.)
posted by From Bklyn at 5:43 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
(Trump is a beast driven by vengeace - he "pisses ice-water" to quote a certain ex-attorney of his - and when he starts to exercise that will be a decisive moment for the country.)
posted by From Bklyn at 5:43 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
The Democrats have as a party been complicit in genocide. Plenty of individuals within the party, Vindman included, have generated pro-genocide propaganda. To quote Eddy Vedder "that shit don't come off". Whatever virtues they might have, their choice to dehumanize the vulnerable and provide cover for the wicked is not going to be forgotten. In most cases they probably are the lesser evil. That doesn't mean we have to pretend to respect them or admire their actions.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:43 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 5:43 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
Clawsoon, I don't know if your fears are overblown. I will say that if you are making not finding men sexy or practicing religion a prerequisite for political inclusion you aren't going to have a meaningful movement.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:46 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 5:46 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I'm not going anywhere, and if anything I'm going to be more vocal about this sort of thing.
i would imagine you find it distasteful when people lie for political gain. you also quoted vindman characterising israel as a "responsible international actor" and repeated the bizarre denialist canard that the way to hold israel accountable for war crimes is for israel to investigate itself. it's there in your comment.
you can make a plausible argument that this sort of mischaracterisation of the situation and feigned concern (i say feigned because genuinely concerned people are, in their millions, advocating proper accountability, not laughably insufficient measures) is expedient in US electoral politics as it is played, amid the consequences of decades of following the voters to vague nowhere instead of bringing them to you.
you can make that argument, but I'm not here to argue. i'm here to remind everyone else about actual accountability for genocide and making a mockery of international law and international institutions. (not "israel must investigate itself".) resources for US mefites interested in helping.
i also think it's important that those with the means to do so make a donation to support the vital work of UNRWA when someone posts minimising rhetoric about genocide in your internet neighbourhood, since the longstanding efforts to undermine that agency's work are emblematic of that genre of propaganda.
posted by busted_crayons at 5:49 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
i would imagine you find it distasteful when people lie for political gain. you also quoted vindman characterising israel as a "responsible international actor" and repeated the bizarre denialist canard that the way to hold israel accountable for war crimes is for israel to investigate itself. it's there in your comment.
you can make a plausible argument that this sort of mischaracterisation of the situation and feigned concern (i say feigned because genuinely concerned people are, in their millions, advocating proper accountability, not laughably insufficient measures) is expedient in US electoral politics as it is played, amid the consequences of decades of following the voters to vague nowhere instead of bringing them to you.
you can make that argument, but I'm not here to argue. i'm here to remind everyone else about actual accountability for genocide and making a mockery of international law and international institutions. (not "israel must investigate itself".) resources for US mefites interested in helping.
i also think it's important that those with the means to do so make a donation to support the vital work of UNRWA when someone posts minimising rhetoric about genocide in your internet neighbourhood, since the longstanding efforts to undermine that agency's work are emblematic of that genre of propaganda.
posted by busted_crayons at 5:49 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
The Democrats have as a party been complicit in genocide.
Due respect, this shit helps absolutely nobody. The Gaza thing is a top 10 issue for like a single-digit percentage of Americans, and at least half of them are on the Israeli side. I'll bet you my mortgage payment that literally 80% of Americans have their eyes glaze over and start fervently wishing they could teleport the minute you bring up something like this.
It's actually a pretty good example of what I'm talking about. Americans don't really give a shit, by and large, about foreign policy. The overwhelming majority of people fall somewhere on the spectrum of "Israel had a point but has gone way overboard" to "[shrug] fuck around and find out". If somehow you were to get the Democratic Party to be all in for Palestinian rights (good fucking luck with THAT), essentially all of those working-class voters would be like what in the fuck does this have to do with my being able to put food on the table? It's a fundamentally abstract issue to them, and Maslow's hierarchy and all.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:54 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]
Due respect, this shit helps absolutely nobody. The Gaza thing is a top 10 issue for like a single-digit percentage of Americans, and at least half of them are on the Israeli side. I'll bet you my mortgage payment that literally 80% of Americans have their eyes glaze over and start fervently wishing they could teleport the minute you bring up something like this.
It's actually a pretty good example of what I'm talking about. Americans don't really give a shit, by and large, about foreign policy. The overwhelming majority of people fall somewhere on the spectrum of "Israel had a point but has gone way overboard" to "[shrug] fuck around and find out". If somehow you were to get the Democratic Party to be all in for Palestinian rights (good fucking luck with THAT), essentially all of those working-class voters would be like what in the fuck does this have to do with my being able to put food on the table? It's a fundamentally abstract issue to them, and Maslow's hierarchy and all.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 5:54 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]
Jimmy Kimmel Reacts to Donald Trump Winning the Election
posted by y2karl at 5:55 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
posted by y2karl at 5:55 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
To quote Eddy Vedder "that shit don't come off". Whatever virtues they might have, their choice to dehumanize the vulnerable and provide cover for the wicked is not going to be forgotten.
That is a sentiment I can appreciate, where it applies. Which I think is much more selective. At any rate, Vindman said Israel would have to "restrain its bloodlust" before the Gaza operation even began. And he has actually worked on war crimes. Yes, with all of the irony that doing so from within the hegemonic power carries--but that's what people are complaining is lacking, right? He has values that led to his whistleblowing and what followed, and that deserves credit too.
I will be watching to see what he does with access to briefings, some amount of power, and a GOP administration to pound on as responsible for current policy. That he presumably has legit animus for on a few more levels than everyone.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:59 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
That is a sentiment I can appreciate, where it applies. Which I think is much more selective. At any rate, Vindman said Israel would have to "restrain its bloodlust" before the Gaza operation even began. And he has actually worked on war crimes. Yes, with all of the irony that doing so from within the hegemonic power carries--but that's what people are complaining is lacking, right? He has values that led to his whistleblowing and what followed, and that deserves credit too.
I will be watching to see what he does with access to briefings, some amount of power, and a GOP administration to pound on as responsible for current policy. That he presumably has legit animus for on a few more levels than everyone.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:59 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Since it's relevant, I thought I'll just link to toastyk's comment in the Palestine siege and genocide thread (well now the Lebanon invasion too) that summed up a report on how exactly minority Trump voters have been talking about the Israel support. Repeatedly. Mistakenly? Sure, but eyes do not seem to glaze over.
posted by cendawanita at 6:09 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 6:09 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
It's actually a pretty good example of what I'm talking about. Americans don't really give a shit, by and large, about foreign policy. The overwhelming majority of people fall somewhere on the spectrum of "Israel had a point but has gone way overboard" to "[shrug] fuck around and find out". If somehow you were to get the Democratic Party to be all in for Palestinian rights (good fucking luck with THAT), essentially all of those working-class voters would be like what in the fuck does this have to do with my being able to put food on the table? It's a fundamentally abstract issue to them, and Maslow's hierarchy and all.
No one is asking for the US to send troops to Palestine to begin fighting the Israelis, we're saying, stop sending arms to Israel while Israel is executing a genocide.
"Donald Trump wants to send your tax dollars abroad and give it to other countries, we (the Dems) want to invest that money in our communities, use it to lower prices, and fund your kids schools" BOOM, 270+
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:10 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]
No one is asking for the US to send troops to Palestine to begin fighting the Israelis, we're saying, stop sending arms to Israel while Israel is executing a genocide.
"Donald Trump wants to send your tax dollars abroad and give it to other countries, we (the Dems) want to invest that money in our communities, use it to lower prices, and fund your kids schools" BOOM, 270+
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:10 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]
I walked a weeping Older Daughter to school today. I said, "we live in Russia now. It's not America anymore. Up til now, you've been as queer and genderbending as you want to be, and some people cherish it, and everyone else has to at least tolerate it. Now? Things are different."
I'm....not sure this was as helpful as you might think. It would have freaked me out if my mother was doing that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:12 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
I'm....not sure this was as helpful as you might think. It would have freaked me out if my mother was doing that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:12 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
"Donald Trump wants to send your tax dollars abroad and give it to other countries, we (the Dems) want to invest that money in our communities, use it to lower prices, and fund your kids schools" BOOM, 270+
Republicans: "Biden/Harris are sending your tax dollars to Ukraine". Nice try.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:12 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Republicans: "Biden/Harris are sending your tax dollars to Ukraine". Nice try.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:12 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Republicans: "Biden/Harris are sending your tax dollars to Ukraine".
This worked!!!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:13 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
This worked!!!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:13 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I'm....not sure this was as helpful as you might think. It would have freaked me out if my mother was doing that.
In fact, she reacted quite well to it. She's a sensible kid, and the actual message was a lot longer and framed with "what I'm telling you is what the world is going to be like, not a critique of you nor an attempt to put you in a box, and if anyone DOES come after you for being queer, I'm getting straight up in their grill..." And I'm her dad BTW, not her mom.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:15 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
In fact, she reacted quite well to it. She's a sensible kid, and the actual message was a lot longer and framed with "what I'm telling you is what the world is going to be like, not a critique of you nor an attempt to put you in a box, and if anyone DOES come after you for being queer, I'm getting straight up in their grill..." And I'm her dad BTW, not her mom.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:15 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Republicans: "Biden/Harris are sending your tax dollars to Ukraine". Nice try.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME HERE. You just said upthread that this foreign policy shit doesn't move the needle with voters. It was the morally right thing to do! And yet the response to I/P is "Boy, genocide, I don't know."
posted by Slackermagee at 6:25 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
ARE YOU KIDDING ME HERE. You just said upthread that this foreign policy shit doesn't move the needle with voters. It was the morally right thing to do! And yet the response to I/P is "Boy, genocide, I don't know."
posted by Slackermagee at 6:25 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Due respect, this shit helps absolutely nobody.
Probably you are right. Whether it does or not, it remains the truth. There is value in engaging with reality, even when it isn't immediately instrumental to some political end.
I'm not a Democrat or a patriot. The Democratic party is useful to me to the extent it is a tool for keeping fascists out of power. Right now it isn't seeming too hot.
I'll vote for them again in two years and four years if I am alive to do so, but it isn't where I am going to be putting my (meager) efforts in the mean time.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:27 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Probably you are right. Whether it does or not, it remains the truth. There is value in engaging with reality, even when it isn't immediately instrumental to some political end.
I'm not a Democrat or a patriot. The Democratic party is useful to me to the extent it is a tool for keeping fascists out of power. Right now it isn't seeming too hot.
I'll vote for them again in two years and four years if I am alive to do so, but it isn't where I am going to be putting my (meager) efforts in the mean time.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:27 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
You just said upthread that this foreign policy shit doesn't move the needle with voters.
It moves the needle insofar as it's money taken away from the kitchen table. But for the very most part, that's it. "China's takin' away our JOBs!!1!" might work, too. My point is that the argument that Donald Trump is sending your tax dollars abroad can be easily countered by so is Biden. It's a wash.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:28 AM on November 7
It moves the needle insofar as it's money taken away from the kitchen table. But for the very most part, that's it. "China's takin' away our JOBs!!1!" might work, too. My point is that the argument that Donald Trump is sending your tax dollars abroad can be easily countered by so is Biden. It's a wash.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:28 AM on November 7
From Noah Berlatsky in Aaron Rupar's Public Notice susbstack:
The global anti-incumbent backlash doomed Kamala Harris
"In a recent op-ed for the New York Times, Matthew Yglesias pointed out that this has been a brutal time for all incumbent parties across the world. Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party had one of its worst elections in its very long career on October 27. Austria’s People’s Party lost 20 of 71 seats in Parliament in late September. Over the summer, Britain’s Tories were crushed by Labour in an unprecedented landslide, while France’s centrist coalition scrambled as it lost a third of its seats. The Canadian incumbent Liberal party looks in serious trouble for elections next year, too.
As Yglesias says, there’s no one ideological throughline here; parties of the left, right, and center alike have struggled as voters blame them for the dislocations caused by covid. These included shutdowns and recession initially, but lingered with supply chain issues and a global spike in inflation."
[. . . ]
This is not the first time a fascist has risen to power thanks to nonpartisan anger at incumbents. In their classic 2016 study “Democracy for Realists,” Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels point out that during the Great Depression, sitting governments were tossed out not on the basis of ideology, but just because they were there and voters were enraged.
In the US, the conservative Hoover administration was replaced with FDR’s progressive New Deal; in Sweden, a liberal government booted the conservatives, and then, as the Depression persisted, was itself defeated by the Social Democrats. And of course, in Germany, the Weimar Democracy fell to Hitler’s psychopathic, genocidal dictatorship.
This isn’t to say that voters are blameless for electing a dangerous fascist, then or now. Cultivating bigotry and authoritarianism in the polity creates huge risks. German nationalism, with its hostility to democracy and its embrace of conspiratorial antisemitism, was a ticking bomb, waiting for the right moment to go off.
Similarly, America’s long term, festering reactionary racism and white supremacy has threatened democracy throughout US history. It gutted attempts at multiracial democracy in Reconstruction, leading to the century-long racist nightmare of Jim Crow. That same institutionalized and intransigent bigotry has now metastasized into MAGA, an openly vindictive authoritarian movement that has seized power for a terrifying second time."
posted by soundguy99 at 6:29 AM on November 7 [15 favorites]
The global anti-incumbent backlash doomed Kamala Harris
"In a recent op-ed for the New York Times, Matthew Yglesias pointed out that this has been a brutal time for all incumbent parties across the world. Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party had one of its worst elections in its very long career on October 27. Austria’s People’s Party lost 20 of 71 seats in Parliament in late September. Over the summer, Britain’s Tories were crushed by Labour in an unprecedented landslide, while France’s centrist coalition scrambled as it lost a third of its seats. The Canadian incumbent Liberal party looks in serious trouble for elections next year, too.
As Yglesias says, there’s no one ideological throughline here; parties of the left, right, and center alike have struggled as voters blame them for the dislocations caused by covid. These included shutdowns and recession initially, but lingered with supply chain issues and a global spike in inflation."
[. . . ]
This is not the first time a fascist has risen to power thanks to nonpartisan anger at incumbents. In their classic 2016 study “Democracy for Realists,” Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels point out that during the Great Depression, sitting governments were tossed out not on the basis of ideology, but just because they were there and voters were enraged.
In the US, the conservative Hoover administration was replaced with FDR’s progressive New Deal; in Sweden, a liberal government booted the conservatives, and then, as the Depression persisted, was itself defeated by the Social Democrats. And of course, in Germany, the Weimar Democracy fell to Hitler’s psychopathic, genocidal dictatorship.
This isn’t to say that voters are blameless for electing a dangerous fascist, then or now. Cultivating bigotry and authoritarianism in the polity creates huge risks. German nationalism, with its hostility to democracy and its embrace of conspiratorial antisemitism, was a ticking bomb, waiting for the right moment to go off.
Similarly, America’s long term, festering reactionary racism and white supremacy has threatened democracy throughout US history. It gutted attempts at multiracial democracy in Reconstruction, leading to the century-long racist nightmare of Jim Crow. That same institutionalized and intransigent bigotry has now metastasized into MAGA, an openly vindictive authoritarian movement that has seized power for a terrifying second time."
posted by soundguy99 at 6:29 AM on November 7 [15 favorites]
The Democratic party is useful to me to the extent it is a tool for keeping fascists out of power. Right now it isn't seeming too hot.
Honestly, real hard to argue with you there.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:29 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]
Honestly, real hard to argue with you there.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:29 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]
My point is that the argument that Donald Trump is sending your tax dollars abroad can be easily countered by so is Biden.
I don't think this matters? Its not a scientific debate, its politics.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:32 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
I don't think this matters? Its not a scientific debate, its politics.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:32 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
It would be far more successful to openly frame the Democrats as a coalition rather than a party: just bring it out into the open that the only thing we all really have in common is not wanting Shitty Gilead
Possibly the wisest statement about strategy in the thread, if busting up the US 2-party system isn't realistic. Expecting that one of two national parties will perfectly embrace and champion all the causes and goals of the progressive left, and can win power by doing so, is going to continue to disappoint.
posted by Artful Codger at 6:35 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Possibly the wisest statement about strategy in the thread, if busting up the US 2-party system isn't realistic. Expecting that one of two national parties will perfectly embrace and champion all the causes and goals of the progressive left, and can win power by doing so, is going to continue to disappoint.
posted by Artful Codger at 6:35 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
outgrown_hobnail Well, dovetailing with the nihilism post further up on the front page, I'd argue you're only half right.
It's not about "foreign policy".
The sad truth is most people don't give a shit about genocide unless they're personally involved.
Your average person, regardless of nationality and other considerations, will assure you that OF COURSE they think genocide is bad. And then ignore it.
"Never again" has a never spoken second clause: "with us as victims, fuck everyone else."
You think the average Cambodian survivor of the genocide there cares about any other genocides? A tiny handful do, most don't. They will, of course, say they do. Beacause pretending to care about genocide is part of our modern good person markers.
No one with any real power cares in the slightest about any genocide.
If even 1% of the average people without power care about genocide I'd be surprised.
After Israel murders or drives out the last Palestinian from Israeli claimed territory there will be a day of memorial and a museum somewhere and people will pretend to have a sad and then they'll move on with thier lives and never think about it again. Mostly they'll feel relief that at least it isn't on the news anymore and they don't have to keep feigning concern.
One death is a tragedy, ten or more is a statistic. On average our species is incapable of grasping death beyond maybe two or three victims tops, after that it just blurs together into "lots of dead people, how sad, ho hum".
So yeah. You're right. From a pure political cold blooded standpoint the single best approach for building a political party is to not care about any genocides and to shut up anyone who keeps talking about them.
And it applies to lesser evils as well.
Trump is going to roll back protections for LGBT people and more trans people will wind up dead? Oh well, in a few decades maybe we can have a national day of memorial that no one ever remembers and a muesum. No one gives a shit unless htey have a trans person in their lives.
The most amazing thing in American history is that it was ever possible to force white people to pretend to care enough to actually end segregation. Once they did that they exhausted their ability to give a shit about people who weren't like them for, so far, 56 years.
And the beneficiaries of that don't give a shit either! Talk to your average Black person about LGBT people and you'll get a whole lot of blowback about how the Civil Rights movement was NOTHING like the LGBT rights movement and all those LGBT people are just whiners and there's not a problem and if there is a problem they don't care.
Shit man, there's actual illegal immigrants righ here in the USA who say they would have voted for Trump if they could! Becuase, see, they know they're one of the good ones and all that stuff he said didn't mean THEM.
So yeah. Fuck it. Nothing matters, no one gives a shit, and apparently all of us who do give a shit are very very bad people for rocking the boat and interfering with what real people (you know, people like they are) think they can get if the election had gone the way they wanted.
The more I think about it the more I realize I'm not sick of Texas. Or sick of America. I'm sick of humanity. Not because you're wrong, but because you're right.
posted by sotonohito at 6:37 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]
It's not about "foreign policy".
The sad truth is most people don't give a shit about genocide unless they're personally involved.
Your average person, regardless of nationality and other considerations, will assure you that OF COURSE they think genocide is bad. And then ignore it.
"Never again" has a never spoken second clause: "with us as victims, fuck everyone else."
You think the average Cambodian survivor of the genocide there cares about any other genocides? A tiny handful do, most don't. They will, of course, say they do. Beacause pretending to care about genocide is part of our modern good person markers.
No one with any real power cares in the slightest about any genocide.
If even 1% of the average people without power care about genocide I'd be surprised.
After Israel murders or drives out the last Palestinian from Israeli claimed territory there will be a day of memorial and a museum somewhere and people will pretend to have a sad and then they'll move on with thier lives and never think about it again. Mostly they'll feel relief that at least it isn't on the news anymore and they don't have to keep feigning concern.
One death is a tragedy, ten or more is a statistic. On average our species is incapable of grasping death beyond maybe two or three victims tops, after that it just blurs together into "lots of dead people, how sad, ho hum".
So yeah. You're right. From a pure political cold blooded standpoint the single best approach for building a political party is to not care about any genocides and to shut up anyone who keeps talking about them.
And it applies to lesser evils as well.
Trump is going to roll back protections for LGBT people and more trans people will wind up dead? Oh well, in a few decades maybe we can have a national day of memorial that no one ever remembers and a muesum. No one gives a shit unless htey have a trans person in their lives.
The most amazing thing in American history is that it was ever possible to force white people to pretend to care enough to actually end segregation. Once they did that they exhausted their ability to give a shit about people who weren't like them for, so far, 56 years.
And the beneficiaries of that don't give a shit either! Talk to your average Black person about LGBT people and you'll get a whole lot of blowback about how the Civil Rights movement was NOTHING like the LGBT rights movement and all those LGBT people are just whiners and there's not a problem and if there is a problem they don't care.
Shit man, there's actual illegal immigrants righ here in the USA who say they would have voted for Trump if they could! Becuase, see, they know they're one of the good ones and all that stuff he said didn't mean THEM.
So yeah. Fuck it. Nothing matters, no one gives a shit, and apparently all of us who do give a shit are very very bad people for rocking the boat and interfering with what real people (you know, people like they are) think they can get if the election had gone the way they wanted.
The more I think about it the more I realize I'm not sick of Texas. Or sick of America. I'm sick of humanity. Not because you're wrong, but because you're right.
posted by sotonohito at 6:37 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]
The idea that he would have won more than about six states is so absolutely laughable. His support was real deep among his fans and nowhere else
I don't know where this idea comes from that Sanders didn't have broad support. His 2020 primary campaign raised $6 million in the first 24 hours, compared to Harris' $1.6 million in 2024. His campaign was the fastest in history to have surpassed over 1 million individual donors.
In the opinion polls, Sanders' primary campaign was always #2 to Biden's, except for a brief period when Warren surged, and another brief period when Sanders was above Biden. Meanwhile, Harris' best moment was below Sanders' lowest.
(In 2016, he never surpassed Hilary Clinton, but didn't do too badly either.)
posted by Foosnark at 6:40 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
I don't know where this idea comes from that Sanders didn't have broad support. His 2020 primary campaign raised $6 million in the first 24 hours, compared to Harris' $1.6 million in 2024. His campaign was the fastest in history to have surpassed over 1 million individual donors.
In the opinion polls, Sanders' primary campaign was always #2 to Biden's, except for a brief period when Warren surged, and another brief period when Sanders was above Biden. Meanwhile, Harris' best moment was below Sanders' lowest.
(In 2016, he never surpassed Hilary Clinton, but didn't do too badly either.)
posted by Foosnark at 6:40 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
I don't think this is human nature. I think it is a consequence of individualism and capitalism. We've set up a system where everyone is alone, where basic essentials for a decent life are paywalled and the work to access them is meaningless and degrading.
Of course people become narrow and selfish in a system like that. And if you have kids, or elderly parents, or a sick spouse, even your virtues drive you to care first and foremost about getting a bigger slice of the pie. The system of the world doesn't just rob and degrade us. It makes us complicit in it. But we can be better. I believe that.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:43 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
Of course people become narrow and selfish in a system like that. And if you have kids, or elderly parents, or a sick spouse, even your virtues drive you to care first and foremost about getting a bigger slice of the pie. The system of the world doesn't just rob and degrade us. It makes us complicit in it. But we can be better. I believe that.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:43 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
I'm sick of humanity.
Welcome to the Misanthrope Club.
We meet every never.
posted by flabdablet at 6:45 AM on November 7 [22 favorites]
Welcome to the Misanthrope Club.
We meet every never.
posted by flabdablet at 6:45 AM on November 7 [22 favorites]
We're continuing to look into--not soon, but at some point--moving back to Comrade Doll's home country of Romania, but even aside from the difficulties I listed above, there's also the matter of how your debts do not pass through a cost-of-living filter. That is, if you owe X in consumer debt/student loans and you move somewhere that the cost of living is 1/5 as high, you also move somewhere that your debts are effectively 5x harder to pay off.
So that's fun, too.
And on the subject of work, she might do okay, but my options would be part-time English tutor or maaaaybe factory foreman at an international factory whose safety standards would probably make an OSHA evaluator weep. I mean, maybe something remote? But probably on US hours, so something like 3 pm to 11 pm, which sucks.
We just have to wait. We're maybe only 5-7 years away but during that time, we are gonna have a front row seat to [bad things]. Our dream of gardening, walking, and hanging out with our friends and family over there is... not close.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:47 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
So that's fun, too.
And on the subject of work, she might do okay, but my options would be part-time English tutor or maaaaybe factory foreman at an international factory whose safety standards would probably make an OSHA evaluator weep. I mean, maybe something remote? But probably on US hours, so something like 3 pm to 11 pm, which sucks.
We just have to wait. We're maybe only 5-7 years away but during that time, we are gonna have a front row seat to [bad things]. Our dream of gardening, walking, and hanging out with our friends and family over there is... not close.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:47 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
One bright spot is that New Mexico will become the second state (after Nevada, I think) to have a majority of women in the legislature.
posted by NotLost at 6:53 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 6:53 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
People aren't this way or that way, they're malleable. Look at all the heroics that happen when there's a disaster. Look at the fact that many young people with Tik-Tok tend to be extremely pro-Palestine, because they see Tik-Toks by Palestinians.
People are malleable, they have their own concerns and they get fatigued.
The meta is the fight to create a system where people can be decent to each other versus a system where everyone is manipulated or exhausted into not caring. In this country, you can see in our history how white people are manipulated, bribed, propagandized and threatened into accepting native genocide and slavery - that's not the ur-state of humanity, that's what happens when some psychopaths with brains create powerful and long-lasting initiatives in order to get everyone to accept slavery and genocide. Undoing that is really difficult, as we can see - you create these systems of bribery, violence and propaganda to lock in whole cultural patterns around slavery and genocide, and then people grow up accepting those patterns and it is very hard to change.
The trouble is that if you have a system where people are decent to each other, it's very difficult for some people to have a lot of wealth and a lot of power. Because our systems are so deeply embedded it is very hard to change them.
Every time anyone tries, all the psychopaths and the most committed systems people get together to bribe, manipulate and threaten everyone into going along, and due to sunk costs and fatigue, a lot of us do. That's not because we're sinless wonders who have been misled, but it's not because we're fallen evil people who will always do the wrong thing either.
I'm not saying don't despair in the moment, I'm not saying don't despise society, but I don't believe this is baked in. There is too much counter-evidence.
posted by Frowner at 6:53 AM on November 7 [36 favorites]
People are malleable, they have their own concerns and they get fatigued.
The meta is the fight to create a system where people can be decent to each other versus a system where everyone is manipulated or exhausted into not caring. In this country, you can see in our history how white people are manipulated, bribed, propagandized and threatened into accepting native genocide and slavery - that's not the ur-state of humanity, that's what happens when some psychopaths with brains create powerful and long-lasting initiatives in order to get everyone to accept slavery and genocide. Undoing that is really difficult, as we can see - you create these systems of bribery, violence and propaganda to lock in whole cultural patterns around slavery and genocide, and then people grow up accepting those patterns and it is very hard to change.
The trouble is that if you have a system where people are decent to each other, it's very difficult for some people to have a lot of wealth and a lot of power. Because our systems are so deeply embedded it is very hard to change them.
Every time anyone tries, all the psychopaths and the most committed systems people get together to bribe, manipulate and threaten everyone into going along, and due to sunk costs and fatigue, a lot of us do. That's not because we're sinless wonders who have been misled, but it's not because we're fallen evil people who will always do the wrong thing either.
I'm not saying don't despair in the moment, I'm not saying don't despise society, but I don't believe this is baked in. There is too much counter-evidence.
posted by Frowner at 6:53 AM on November 7 [36 favorites]
I'm not saying don't despair in the moment, I'm not saying don't despise society, but I don't believe this is baked in. There is too much counter-evidence.
posted by Frowner
Do we have a word for the opposite of eponysterical?
Meanwhile, I find myself re-reading Kayla Chadwick's 2017 essay, I Don't Know How To Explain To You That You Should Care About Other People.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:56 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
posted by Frowner
Do we have a word for the opposite of eponysterical?
Meanwhile, I find myself re-reading Kayla Chadwick's 2017 essay, I Don't Know How To Explain To You That You Should Care About Other People.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:56 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
From John Burch-Murdoch (columnist & chief data reporter at the Financial Times) BlueSky:
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat.
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world
Toot or whatever-the-fuck you call it on BlueSky includes a table, although the main FT article is behind a paywall.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:57 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat.
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world
Toot or whatever-the-fuck you call it on BlueSky includes a table, although the main FT article is behind a paywall.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:57 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Our dream of gardening, walking, and hanging out with our friends and family over there is... not close
It's not too late for a fraction of everyone being pushed out of their states by politics or priced out of their cities to simply take over Wyoming (population, 584,057). What are those conservatives doing on top of our natural gas?
/s, probably
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:58 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
It's not too late for a fraction of everyone being pushed out of their states by politics or priced out of their cities to simply take over Wyoming (population, 584,057). What are those conservatives doing on top of our natural gas?
/s, probably
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:58 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
One reason people don't want to hear about Palestine is because they know they would have to care, and they feel they probably couldn't actually do much and they feel that they are already overburdened with work, rent, loneliness, etc.
Think about it - when you encounter, eg, a problem that you can solve for someone, don't you feel like "that's it, I'm going to fix this today"? Helplessness, perceived helplessness and overwhelm keep people alone and disorganized.
Like, back when I was a secretary, if a grad student had a payroll problem, I was on it - I would burn down the phonelines until we got a resolution. That was because my sense of "grad students are broke and should not get fucked over" aligned very well with "I know just who to call and hector, we will get an off-cycle check if I have to show up at payroll myself".
Again, I'm not saying that everyone is good and pure and just misled, but I am saying that in the aggregate, humans are malleable, not evil.
posted by Frowner at 6:59 AM on November 7 [37 favorites]
Think about it - when you encounter, eg, a problem that you can solve for someone, don't you feel like "that's it, I'm going to fix this today"? Helplessness, perceived helplessness and overwhelm keep people alone and disorganized.
Like, back when I was a secretary, if a grad student had a payroll problem, I was on it - I would burn down the phonelines until we got a resolution. That was because my sense of "grad students are broke and should not get fucked over" aligned very well with "I know just who to call and hector, we will get an off-cycle check if I have to show up at payroll myself".
Again, I'm not saying that everyone is good and pure and just misled, but I am saying that in the aggregate, humans are malleable, not evil.
posted by Frowner at 6:59 AM on November 7 [37 favorites]
Frowner, you're a good egg and I'm glad you're here. I'm reading and re-reading your thoughts above and while I am old and weary and not with you yet, I suspect I will get there. I'm glad you're around these parts with us.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:16 AM on November 7 [26 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:16 AM on November 7 [26 favorites]
Mod note: Comment removed. Let's avoid advocating that people suffer, even if they are Republicans.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:20 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:20 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
That’s a mischaracterization of my comment. It referred to Trump voters, not Republicans.
I do not think they deserve good things in life and I hope I am around to witness everything they want for me happening to them. I will support candidates and media outlets who share this view. I really don’t care why they voted for him and I hope fewer of them are able to vote in the next election.
posted by ohneat at 7:27 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I do not think they deserve good things in life and I hope I am around to witness everything they want for me happening to them. I will support candidates and media outlets who share this view. I really don’t care why they voted for him and I hope fewer of them are able to vote in the next election.
posted by ohneat at 7:27 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Lmao to all the white people planning to emigrate bc they can
it's me hi i'm the problem it's me
I'm a dual Canadian-American, born in Canada, and I moved home in May partly because of red state politics stuff (I was in TN and probably the last straw was when the Covenant School shooting resulted in Republicans kicking Democrats out of the state legislature for shouting with gun control protestors when the Republicans wouldn't allow them to speak as legislators), partly for personal reasons. My American partner came with me so we've been dealing with immigration stuff.
Anyway I posted this on Facebook and some here might find it useful:
it's me hi i'm the problem it's me
I'm a dual Canadian-American, born in Canada, and I moved home in May partly because of red state politics stuff (I was in TN and probably the last straw was when the Covenant School shooting resulted in Republicans kicking Democrats out of the state legislature for shouting with gun control protestors when the Republicans wouldn't allow them to speak as legislators), partly for personal reasons. My American partner came with me so we've been dealing with immigration stuff.
Anyway I posted this on Facebook and some here might find it useful:
I'm seeing some folks talking about moving to Canada.posted by joannemerriam at 7:27 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
I can recommend North Star Immigration Law Inc., nsimmigration dot ca, who handled Dave's immigration. They were really helpful and have a flat rate so you know you won't run into weird unexpected expenses.
Immigrating is expensive. We spent about $10k on fees (between solicitors and government forms) and another $5k or something like that on the moving van, movers to pack and unpack our furniture, and gas to get to Canada from TN. Then of course you need money to live on while you get situated. We were fortunate in that I'm already a citizen and could sponsor Dave, and we're able to stay with my folks, and we've still run through thousands of dollars in the last six months just on gas and groceries.
I want to stress that Canada is not necessarily going to be any better in the longterm depending on your concerns. Carefully research stuff like Pierre Poilievre (our likely next Prime Minister) and the Wild Rose Party and Ford Nation and such.
Plus! Americans often talk about this like Canada doesn't have a say in it, like you can just move to a place. Canada has fairly liberal immigration rules by American standards but they do still have rules, and the process can be expensive and time-consuming, and at the end of the day they may not want you. If you're a teacher or a doctor/nurse/medical professional then you are in like Flynn, otherwise, again, do some careful research.
Mod note: That’s a mischaracterization of my comment. It referred to Trump voters, not Republicans.
You are correct, it was about Trump voters. I mistyped and I apologize for that mistake.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:32 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
You are correct, it was about Trump voters. I mistyped and I apologize for that mistake.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:32 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
Maybe I'm voting for an exception to the "white American emigrants are the worst" rule that I hope would include me... But exploring in good faith the complex process of returning to the home country does not seem the same as like, fucking off to somewhere cheap to drink sixty cent beers in ex-pat bars. And it's certainly not like simply supposing you can wave your US passport and platinum card around and then be welcomed into your choice of progressive European countries even if you do not speak the language, know anyone, or have professional skills to pave the way.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:35 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:35 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
Murtaza Hussain: According to NBC exit polls 64% of Native American voters voted for Trump
posted by Apocryphon at 7:43 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 7:43 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
It does not seem weird to me that people want to emigrate. That's a time-honored move! My Swedish and German ancestors moved here to escape the powerful and conservative church (Sweden, then) and Prussian conscription. People come to the US to escape shitty political conditions (many but not all caused by the US) all the time, assuming they are allowed refugee status. People move because of economic conditions. No one bats an eye when an upper middle class professional bops over to Europe for a teaching position, either.
Further, people very often have extremely idealized views of the US before emigrating. Again, this does not seem weird to me.
I'd say that if you can go without being an asshole who destabilizes the local economy, go! If I'd been thoughtful when I was in my twenties/early thirties I would absolutely have gotten useful credentials and split. Later, I hesitated when I could still probably have gotten out because of not wanting to leave my family while my mother was terminally ill, and now I'm really pretty much too old for anything but a mad emergency dash for the border to save my neck, should it come to that.
Go, go! No need to go down with the ship, I'll be doing that for you.
posted by Frowner at 7:46 AM on November 7 [17 favorites]
Further, people very often have extremely idealized views of the US before emigrating. Again, this does not seem weird to me.
I'd say that if you can go without being an asshole who destabilizes the local economy, go! If I'd been thoughtful when I was in my twenties/early thirties I would absolutely have gotten useful credentials and split. Later, I hesitated when I could still probably have gotten out because of not wanting to leave my family while my mother was terminally ill, and now I'm really pretty much too old for anything but a mad emergency dash for the border to save my neck, should it come to that.
Go, go! No need to go down with the ship, I'll be doing that for you.
posted by Frowner at 7:46 AM on November 7 [17 favorites]
Frowner, you're a good egg and I'm glad you're here
What a nice thing to say!
It's weird to reflect how many disasters we've all posted through here.
posted by Frowner at 7:48 AM on November 7 [23 favorites]
DirtyOldTown: Do we have a word for the opposite of eponysterical?
I propose antiponysterical.
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:50 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
I propose antiponysterical.
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:50 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
I think a lot of the "Bernie Sanders wouldn't have done anything" and "Foreign policy changes wouldn't have helped" are cope for the ship the party sailed on crashing into a reef and sinking. The choices that were made, and defended here even now, were all part of a failed campaign.
Pull all the assumptions into the cold light of defeat for a post-mortem or this will happen a third time.
posted by Slackermagee at 7:51 AM on November 7 [17 favorites]
Pull all the assumptions into the cold light of defeat for a post-mortem or this will happen a third time.
posted by Slackermagee at 7:51 AM on November 7 [17 favorites]
Daniel Hunter article from 11/4/2024, subheaded "The key to taking effective action in a Trump world is to avoid perpetuating the autocrat’s goals of fear, isolation, exhaustion and disorientation"
Hannah Arendt’s “The Origins of Totalitarianism” explored how destructive ideologies like fascism and autocracy grow. She used the word verlassenheit — often translated as loneliness — as a central ingredient. As she meant it, loneliness isn’t a feeling but a kind of social isolation of the mind. Your thinking becomes closed off to the world and a sense of being abandoned to each other.posted by audi alteram partem at 7:55 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
It's weird to reflect how many disasters we've all posted through here.
"A Klee painting named Angelus Novus shows an angel looking as though he is about to move away from something he is fixedly contemplating. His eyes are staring, his mouth is open, his wings are spread. This is how one pictures the angel of history. His face is turned toward the past. Where we perceive a chain of events, he sees one single catastrophe which keeps piling wreckage upon wreckage and hurls it in front of his feet. The angel would like to stay, awaken the dead, and make whole what has been smashed. But a storm is blowing from Paradise; it has got caught in his wings with such violence that the angel can no longer close them. The storm irresistibly propels him into the future to which his back is turned, while the pile of debris before him grows skyward. This storm is what we call progress."
Walter Benjamin Theses on the Philosophy of History
posted by deeker at 7:56 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
"A Klee painting named Angelus Novus shows an angel looking as though he is about to move away from something he is fixedly contemplating. His eyes are staring, his mouth is open, his wings are spread. This is how one pictures the angel of history. His face is turned toward the past. Where we perceive a chain of events, he sees one single catastrophe which keeps piling wreckage upon wreckage and hurls it in front of his feet. The angel would like to stay, awaken the dead, and make whole what has been smashed. But a storm is blowing from Paradise; it has got caught in his wings with such violence that the angel can no longer close them. The storm irresistibly propels him into the future to which his back is turned, while the pile of debris before him grows skyward. This storm is what we call progress."
Walter Benjamin Theses on the Philosophy of History
posted by deeker at 7:56 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
Anecdote: I spoke to a friend last night and she was so happy to report that her partner in New Zealand had just gotten his US "Green Card" after years of bureaucracy.
posted by achrise at 7:59 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
posted by achrise at 7:59 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
FDR and his 80% majorities only came when the country was in deep shit. And he still had to fight his way through an obstructive conservative SCOTUS.
And even then Upton Sinclair got rejected running for governor in California on a radical (but sensible) socialist platform (aka what California has to today to some extent) in the darkest days of the depression.
I, Candidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked
ChatGPT won't let me export the session due to "Getting Licked" in the title apparently, so here's a snippet:
Key Themes
And even then Upton Sinclair got rejected running for governor in California on a radical (but sensible) socialist platform (aka what California has to today to some extent) in the darkest days of the depression.
I, Candidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked
ChatGPT won't let me export the session due to "Getting Licked" in the title apparently, so here's a snippet:
Key Themes
- Media Manipulation:
- Sinclair details how newspapers and emerging media technologies were used to distort his messages.
- He exposes the collaboration between media outlets and his political adversaries to spread fear and misinformation.
- Political Corruption:
- The book highlights how economic elites exert influence over politics to maintain the status quo.
- Sinclair discusses the use of illegal and unethical tactics, including voter intimidation and election fraud.
- Challenges of Reform:
- He reflects on the difficulties of implementing significant social change within a system resistant to it.
- The narrative underscores the obstacles faced by progressive movements in confronting entrenched power structures.
The other thing about emigrating to get away from US politics is that a quick look around at the state of the world will tell you that many of the places you could go are trending the same way to one degree or another.
So you will likely have to really feel like you are benefitting in some non-political way.
Maybe it's somewhere with a slower pace of life. Maybe it's somewhere you could retire a little earlier and have more time to putter around gardening, reading, etc. Maybe it's somewhere with the kind of classic old towns that you could walk everywhere, eat fresh food, and get to know your green grocer and pharmacist. Maybe they have universal or more heavily subsidized health care, so you would no longer be a heart attack away from going broke.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:03 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
So you will likely have to really feel like you are benefitting in some non-political way.
Maybe it's somewhere with a slower pace of life. Maybe it's somewhere you could retire a little earlier and have more time to putter around gardening, reading, etc. Maybe it's somewhere with the kind of classic old towns that you could walk everywhere, eat fresh food, and get to know your green grocer and pharmacist. Maybe they have universal or more heavily subsidized health care, so you would no longer be a heart attack away from going broke.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:03 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
Seems appropriate to (re)quote Foucault's preface to Deleuze & Guattari's Anti-Oedipus* (one of the great anti-fascist texts and seemingly getting more relevant every passing year, as well as being a powerful antidote to total despair):
“This art of living counter to all forms of fascism, whether already present or impending, carries with it a certain number of essential principles which I would summarize as follows if I were to make this great book into a manual or guide to everyday life:
· Free political action from all unitary and totalizing paranoia.
· Develop action, thought, and desires by proliferation, juxtaposition, and disjunction, and not by subdivision and pyramidal hierarchization.
· Withdraw allegiance from the old categories of the Negative (law, limit, castration, lack, lacuna), which Western thought has so long held sacred as a form of power and an access to reality. Prefer what is positive and multiple, difference over uniformity, flows over unities, mobile arrangements over systems. Believe that what is productive is not sedentary but nomadic.
· Do not think that one has to be sad in order to be militant, even though the thing one is fighting is abominable. It is the connection of desire to reality (and not its retreat into the forms of representation) that possesses revolutionary force.
· Do not use thought to ground a political practice in Truth; nor political action to discredit, as mere speculation, a line of thought. Use political practice as an intensifier of thought, and analysis as a multiplier of the forms and domains for the intervention of political action.
· Do not demand of politics that it restore the "rights" of the individual, as philosophy has defined them. The individual is the product of power. What is needed is to "de-individualize" by means of multiplication and displacement, diverse combinations. The group must not be the organic bond uniting hierarchized individuals, but a constant generator of de-individualization.
· Do not become enamored of power.”
*link to complete text at the happily re-functional archive.org
posted by remembrancer at 8:05 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]
“This art of living counter to all forms of fascism, whether already present or impending, carries with it a certain number of essential principles which I would summarize as follows if I were to make this great book into a manual or guide to everyday life:
· Free political action from all unitary and totalizing paranoia.
· Develop action, thought, and desires by proliferation, juxtaposition, and disjunction, and not by subdivision and pyramidal hierarchization.
· Withdraw allegiance from the old categories of the Negative (law, limit, castration, lack, lacuna), which Western thought has so long held sacred as a form of power and an access to reality. Prefer what is positive and multiple, difference over uniformity, flows over unities, mobile arrangements over systems. Believe that what is productive is not sedentary but nomadic.
· Do not think that one has to be sad in order to be militant, even though the thing one is fighting is abominable. It is the connection of desire to reality (and not its retreat into the forms of representation) that possesses revolutionary force.
· Do not use thought to ground a political practice in Truth; nor political action to discredit, as mere speculation, a line of thought. Use political practice as an intensifier of thought, and analysis as a multiplier of the forms and domains for the intervention of political action.
· Do not demand of politics that it restore the "rights" of the individual, as philosophy has defined them. The individual is the product of power. What is needed is to "de-individualize" by means of multiplication and displacement, diverse combinations. The group must not be the organic bond uniting hierarchized individuals, but a constant generator of de-individualization.
· Do not become enamored of power.”
*link to complete text at the happily re-functional archive.org
posted by remembrancer at 8:05 AM on November 7 [14 favorites]
(re emigrating: I've emigrated twice, once when I was eleven and then again when I was in my late 30s - you leave, physically, but almost 20 years after we moved to Germany I still read the NYTimes and the NewYorker and watch US tv/shows and of course I have family in the US but in a lot of ways we've been a little living in-between both countries. It's odd and, frankly, but for the kids (or for others there are other impetus) I don't think we would have left in the first place - though we abhorred and feared for the political state of things (this was during the reign of Bush the Junior.) It's no small thing, is what I'm saying.)
posted by From Bklyn at 8:08 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 8:08 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Has RFK Jr. yet vowed to "Make Pellagra Great Again"?
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:35 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:35 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I'm sick of humanity.
Welcome to the Misanthrope Club.
We meet every never.
Never? Never's good for me!
posted by chavenet at 8:36 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Welcome to the Misanthrope Club.
We meet every never.
Never? Never's good for me!
posted by chavenet at 8:36 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
I admit my own bias, but I'm beyond tired of the "dems ignore the working class!" take. Many LGTBQ people are working class. Many Black women are working class. And some of them are also LGBTQ! They overwhelmingly voted Harris. Black men made some shift toward Trump but still hugely for Harris compared to white men. It is disingenuous to pretend it's only a class issue and it's disrespectful to suggest that these groups don't have the same goddamn economic struggles, yet we still understood the assignment.
posted by nakedmolerats at 8:38 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
posted by nakedmolerats at 8:38 AM on November 7 [16 favorites]
It's not too late for a fraction of everyone being pushed out of their states by politics or priced out of their cities to simply take over Wyoming (population, 584,057).
Children? We're going to Wyoming!
Let's see how many Volvos we pass on the way to our new life in the country.
posted by flabdablet at 8:44 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Children? We're going to Wyoming!
Let's see how many Volvos we pass on the way to our new life in the country.
posted by flabdablet at 8:44 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
I admit my own bias, but I'm beyond tired of the "dems ignore the working class!" take. Many LGTBQ people are working class. Many Black women are working class. And some of them are also LGBTQ! They overwhelmingly voted Harris.
The "working class" of American political analysis has nothing to do with actual workers. It is a self designated bunch composed mostly of white petite-bourgeoisie.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:49 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
The "working class" of American political analysis has nothing to do with actual workers. It is a self designated bunch composed mostly of white petite-bourgeoisie.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:49 AM on November 7 [12 favorites]
My f'in random podunk city has more people than Wyoming. Where's our 2 senators in DC??
Then again we broke 53% for Trumpo so nm
posted by torokunai at 8:54 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
Then again we broke 53% for Trumpo so nm
posted by torokunai at 8:54 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
I'm beyond tired of the "dems ignore the working class!" take
So is electoral-vote.com:
---
The "working class" of American political analysis has nothing to do with actual workers. It is a self designated bunch composed mostly of white petite-bourgeoisie.
Amen.
posted by grubi at 8:54 AM on November 7 [21 favorites]
So is electoral-vote.com:
What, exactly, does [Bernie Sanders] propose Democrats should do? Should they, for example, talk about raising the minimum wage? Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris did that. Should they actually INCREASE the minimum wage? Biden tried, and was stymied by the filibuster and by pro-corporate types in his very narrow Senate majority (ahem, Kyrsten Sinema). As a sitting U.S. Senator, you would think Sanders would know this. Meanwhile, the Biden administration supported strikes by walking union picket lines, created blue-collar jobs with the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, helped secure union pensions that were underfunded, and tried to help low-income folks who have student loans, among other initiatives. This does not sound like Biden and Harris "abandoned working class people" to us.
---
The "working class" of American political analysis has nothing to do with actual workers. It is a self designated bunch composed mostly of white petite-bourgeoisie.
Amen.
posted by grubi at 8:54 AM on November 7 [21 favorites]
Dems ignore the racist working class, maybe? We can't fix that.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:07 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:07 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
There's evidence at this point that working class members of many demographic categories voted for Trump, not in majorities but in numbers sufficient to shift the entire country slightly in his direction, leading to a win. The Democratic Party has to figure out a way to deal with that reality through a changed approach to its rhetoric, policy, and communication platforms. It's their job to win.
A question I've been asking myself and am curious if others have answers: who is the leader of the Democratic Party? Nominally Jeffries, but spiritually, who is it?
posted by kensington314 at 9:15 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
A question I've been asking myself and am curious if others have answers: who is the leader of the Democratic Party? Nominally Jeffries, but spiritually, who is it?
posted by kensington314 at 9:15 AM on November 7 [6 favorites]
What, exactly, does [Bernie Sanders] propose Democrats should do?
This is Sanders in a nutshell. Give me that sweet, sweet attention but don't ask me about the practicalities, because I've never passed a piece of legislation in 40+ years at the feeding trough.
And the Democratic Party doesn't have a "leader" because it can't, because unless and until it reinvents itself as a coalition and stops pretending it's a party, it's always going to be the Shitty Consultants Who Work for the Donors who determine what happens. And to be fair, that's the part of Sanders' critique that IS totally spot on.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 9:15 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
This is Sanders in a nutshell. Give me that sweet, sweet attention but don't ask me about the practicalities, because I've never passed a piece of legislation in 40+ years at the feeding trough.
And the Democratic Party doesn't have a "leader" because it can't, because unless and until it reinvents itself as a coalition and stops pretending it's a party, it's always going to be the Shitty Consultants Who Work for the Donors who determine what happens. And to be fair, that's the part of Sanders' critique that IS totally spot on.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 9:15 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
What, exactly, does [Bernie Sanders] propose Democrats should do?
This rhetorical question shits me to tears every time some pompous fuck opens yet another defence of the status quo with it.
The man's website is right there, ffs. Anybody who actually wants to know what Sanders proposes the Democrats should do could just pay attention to what he's been saying for the last twenty years instead of throwing up their hands and going la, la, la, we can't hear you.
posted by flabdablet at 9:17 AM on November 7 [20 favorites]
This rhetorical question shits me to tears every time some pompous fuck opens yet another defence of the status quo with it.
The man's website is right there, ffs. Anybody who actually wants to know what Sanders proposes the Democrats should do could just pay attention to what he's been saying for the last twenty years instead of throwing up their hands and going la, la, la, we can't hear you.
posted by flabdablet at 9:17 AM on November 7 [20 favorites]
The man's website is right there, ffs.
It's all fucking smoke and mirrors, ffs. Please detail precisely how that plan passes through Congress, or at least give us a semi-plausible road. But no, it's entirely pie in the sky, things that will never happen. He's NEVER responsible for the practical steps that would lead to his utopia. "Oh look, Saint Bernie said it, and that's all that needs to happen!" Pull the other one. Show me a plan that could make it through a divided Congress or shut the fuck up.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 9:21 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
It's all fucking smoke and mirrors, ffs. Please detail precisely how that plan passes through Congress, or at least give us a semi-plausible road. But no, it's entirely pie in the sky, things that will never happen. He's NEVER responsible for the practical steps that would lead to his utopia. "Oh look, Saint Bernie said it, and that's all that needs to happen!" Pull the other one. Show me a plan that could make it through a divided Congress or shut the fuck up.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 9:21 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Show me *any* bill that can pass a divided congress that isn't bullshit.
But don't worry, the practical people who know how to get things done just lost so fucking badly that the worst people in the world will have absolutely no trouble getting the worst fucking things imaginable through congress.
posted by dis_integration at 9:23 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]
But don't worry, the practical people who know how to get things done just lost so fucking badly that the worst people in the world will have absolutely no trouble getting the worst fucking things imaginable through congress.
posted by dis_integration at 9:23 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]
There is is again: that passionate centrist defence of the status quo on the basis that the face eating leopards are opposed to all change and therefore none is possible, complete with that absolute pinnacle of civil discourse, the classic "shut the fuck up" argument.
People with strong objections to being thought of as centrists might perhaps consider displaying a little less eagerness to embrace centrist positions.
posted by flabdablet at 9:27 AM on November 7 [21 favorites]
People with strong objections to being thought of as centrists might perhaps consider displaying a little less eagerness to embrace centrist positions.
posted by flabdablet at 9:27 AM on November 7 [21 favorites]
Show me a plan that could make it through a divided Congress or shut the fuck up.
Can step one please be firing Schumer?
posted by mittens at 9:29 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Can step one please be firing Schumer?
posted by mittens at 9:29 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Policy moves at the speed of public opinion. So step one is put the plan out there and take every opportunity to argue its merits.
posted by flabdablet at 9:30 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 9:30 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
Show me *any* bill that can pass a divided congress that isn't bullshit.
do people really think the IRA was bullshit?
posted by BungaDunga at 9:30 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
do people really think the IRA was bullshit?
posted by BungaDunga at 9:30 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
The Inflation Reduction Act was passed in the brief window of time that the Democrats controlled both Houses (via Harris's tiebreaker)
posted by dis_integration at 9:34 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 9:34 AM on November 7 [9 favorites]
(so if someone is like, show me how Bernie Sanders could pass bills once he won a race for president as leader of a party that controls both houses, then I actually could show you how he could do that)
posted by dis_integration at 9:35 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 9:35 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
I think any conversation about why the Harris campaign cratered across-the-board that goes to "Bernie Sanders is a charlatan" is veering off course.
posted by kensington314 at 9:40 AM on November 7 [24 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 9:40 AM on November 7 [24 favorites]
bloody vikings
posted by flabdablet at 9:42 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 9:42 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Policy moves at the speed of public opinion.
My impression from up here in a parliamentary democracy is that the American system is designed to move much, much more slowly than public opinion.
Unicameral legislative bodies (in our case, effectively unicameral) move slowly enough, but your American three-way split appears to be purposely designed to frustrate the movements of public opinion.
posted by clawsoon at 9:45 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
My impression from up here in a parliamentary democracy is that the American system is designed to move much, much more slowly than public opinion.
Unicameral legislative bodies (in our case, effectively unicameral) move slowly enough, but your American three-way split appears to be purposely designed to frustrate the movements of public opinion.
posted by clawsoon at 9:45 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
>cratered across-the-board
? the 3 former "Blue Wall" states are all ~50-50.
I think the GOP found a working set of "kitchen table" gripes to pound the Dems on . . . landlords raising rents so much 2021-23, corporations jacking up profits so much 2022-23, the usual property theft stuff, illegal immigration (legal immigrants are big on that crackdown ofc), and their attacks on trans people.
Nobody has any clue of the FED charts I've been posting in this thread; nobody lives in the aggregate, everybody has their own local challenges, and it's quite a lot for a lot of people.
GOP can blame the Dems for a while but they own this decade now.
Wish us luck.
posted by torokunai at 9:48 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
? the 3 former "Blue Wall" states are all ~50-50.
I think the GOP found a working set of "kitchen table" gripes to pound the Dems on . . . landlords raising rents so much 2021-23, corporations jacking up profits so much 2022-23, the usual property theft stuff, illegal immigration (legal immigrants are big on that crackdown ofc), and their attacks on trans people.
Nobody has any clue of the FED charts I've been posting in this thread; nobody lives in the aggregate, everybody has their own local challenges, and it's quite a lot for a lot of people.
GOP can blame the Dems for a while but they own this decade now.
Wish us luck.
posted by torokunai at 9:48 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
If you were wondering where "They're weird" went (an incredibly effective attack line) and why there was a sudden "we need Republicans in the cabinet" bit you can thank Geoff Garin, a failure from the failed Clinton campaign who got brought in to let us down one more time.
The centrist Clinton idiots need to sit in the basement opening letters from now on. It might not be Sanders but someone else's direction is needed and if they ever try to claw their way back into the machinery they need to be chained to their fucking desks down in the dungeon where they can do little, if any harm. I'd bet you twenty bucks they quote West Wing at each other.
posted by Slackermagee at 9:55 AM on November 7 [34 favorites]
The centrist Clinton idiots need to sit in the basement opening letters from now on. It might not be Sanders but someone else's direction is needed and if they ever try to claw their way back into the machinery they need to be chained to their fucking desks down in the dungeon where they can do little, if any harm. I'd bet you twenty bucks they quote West Wing at each other.
posted by Slackermagee at 9:55 AM on November 7 [34 favorites]
Moving at the speed of public opinion doesn't preclude remaining twenty years behind it at all times.
posted by flabdablet at 9:58 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 9:58 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
You're appealing to my liberal desire to say that I accept all lifestyles and all sorts of people. But you're also triggering my fear/knowledge that it's just about impossible to celebrate dangerous sexy masculinity and religious reverence without ending up under authoritarian patriarchy.
Are my fears overblown?
I think sitting with that discomfort for a while and thinking about it is a good place for growth. And then thinking about what people you’re sharing that space with, and how wrong they’ve been. The people who were like “we can’t have the dangerous sexiness, it will lure our young people astray”? Those were the puritans. It is their modern descendants who are all “the queers need to stop being so queer in public or it will lure the children to be queer with its bright colors and attractive songs!” And I think it’s really, really important to think about how much these concepts are bound up with white Anglo Saxon Protestantism and with whiteness overall.
The Sikhs, for example, came up with religious notions of gender equality back in the 1500s. Yet the notion of protection is also bound up with the faith (for both men and women) - the required weapon exists in large part to defend others and fight oppression.
There exist ways of lifting women and others up that do not require lowering men down. Both men and women (and non-binary folk) can be charismatic and dominant warrior-leaders. There exist ways of spirituality and religion that don’t automatically create male dominance. In fact, I would say that to assume allowing expression of these things will automatically create circumstances in which they rule is itself sexist. It assumes men hold some special power of compulsion; rather than that society has worked to create a structure.
posted by corb at 10:01 AM on November 7 [17 favorites]
Are my fears overblown?
I think sitting with that discomfort for a while and thinking about it is a good place for growth. And then thinking about what people you’re sharing that space with, and how wrong they’ve been. The people who were like “we can’t have the dangerous sexiness, it will lure our young people astray”? Those were the puritans. It is their modern descendants who are all “the queers need to stop being so queer in public or it will lure the children to be queer with its bright colors and attractive songs!” And I think it’s really, really important to think about how much these concepts are bound up with white Anglo Saxon Protestantism and with whiteness overall.
The Sikhs, for example, came up with religious notions of gender equality back in the 1500s. Yet the notion of protection is also bound up with the faith (for both men and women) - the required weapon exists in large part to defend others and fight oppression.
There exist ways of lifting women and others up that do not require lowering men down. Both men and women (and non-binary folk) can be charismatic and dominant warrior-leaders. There exist ways of spirituality and religion that don’t automatically create male dominance. In fact, I would say that to assume allowing expression of these things will automatically create circumstances in which they rule is itself sexist. It assumes men hold some special power of compulsion; rather than that society has worked to create a structure.
posted by corb at 10:01 AM on November 7 [17 favorites]
is outgrown_hobnail a self-professed communist or is that a fever dream of mine
of the surprises from this election, that post might beat all
posted by ginger.beef at 10:02 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
of the surprises from this election, that post might beat all
posted by ginger.beef at 10:02 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
It's super cool that we've all experienced a disaster together and some of y'all can't wait to start choking people in the lifeboat. Good times.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:08 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:08 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
What, exactly, does [Bernie Sanders] propose Democrats should do? Should they, for example, talk about raising the minimum wage? Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris did that. Should they actually INCREASE the minimum wage? Biden tried, and was stymied by the filibuster and by pro-corporate types in his very narrow Senate majority (ahem, Kyrsten Sinema). As a sitting U.S. Senator, you would think Sanders would know this. Meanwhile, the Biden administration supported strikes by walking union picket lines, created blue-collar jobs with the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, helped secure union pensions that were underfunded, and tried to help low-income folks who have student loans, among other initiatives. This does not sound like Biden and Harris "abandoned working class people" to us.
Part of what this thinking is doing is confusing policy with communication/retail politics. You can have great policies, but if you can't connect to people they aren't going to understand those policies or feel connected to the politician, and whether we like it or not, a lot of people want to vote for politicians they feel are authentic, and who see them and their problems and provide common sense explanations for those problems. That's why Bernie remains one of the most (if not the most) popular politician alive. The work he and his team did with producing videos of the working poor in the run up to the 2020 primary, where people were invited to narrate their struggles, he listened, and then encouraged them (and viewers) to connect their personal struggles to structural problems, is why the campaign of an old grouchy self-described socialist managed to get roughly a 1/3 of the electoral primary votes and generate more individual donations than any other candidate.
I listened to a lot of interviews of undecided voters over the past few months. I talked to somE of them while canvassing in a swing state. A lot of people's read on Harris, much like in the 2020 primary was, this is a woman who will say whatever seems expedient in the moment, but ultimately stands for nothing and is just an empty pants suit - an out of touch coastal elite. Now, you can argue all you want that that is unfair (and certainly, there is nothing she could do about the fact that a good percentage of this country deeply distrust anybody connected to the Bay Area), but the approach of the campaign contributed to this. One minute she's talking about price gouging (great!) next minute she's doing a series of events with a Cheney, then she's talking about housing costs (great!), then her surrogate Mark Cuban is talking about why billionaires like her (as though that's a good thing) and how she should fire Lina Khan. I spend a lot of time reading the news and by the end of the campaign I had no idea what to expect from a Harris presidency (mind you, didn't stop me from canvassing for her), so I can forgive the average voter for being confused. As someone said above, voters don't need detailed policies, but they do what a clear, consistent vision, and they need it delivered to them in different media outlets - rallies aren't enough. You can hate on Bernie all you want, but the guy goes on Fox News, he went on Joe Rogan's podcast and won his endorsement in 2020 (and got so much grief for it), he and AOC go on Twitch together and engage with voters, he's always doing virtual events, other podcasts, etc. - the man puts himself out there - that's why people trust he is who he says he is. Harris did some interviews, but it was too little too late. And they barely let Walz out at all. Baffling.
posted by coffeecat at 10:15 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]
Part of what this thinking is doing is confusing policy with communication/retail politics. You can have great policies, but if you can't connect to people they aren't going to understand those policies or feel connected to the politician, and whether we like it or not, a lot of people want to vote for politicians they feel are authentic, and who see them and their problems and provide common sense explanations for those problems. That's why Bernie remains one of the most (if not the most) popular politician alive. The work he and his team did with producing videos of the working poor in the run up to the 2020 primary, where people were invited to narrate their struggles, he listened, and then encouraged them (and viewers) to connect their personal struggles to structural problems, is why the campaign of an old grouchy self-described socialist managed to get roughly a 1/3 of the electoral primary votes and generate more individual donations than any other candidate.
I listened to a lot of interviews of undecided voters over the past few months. I talked to somE of them while canvassing in a swing state. A lot of people's read on Harris, much like in the 2020 primary was, this is a woman who will say whatever seems expedient in the moment, but ultimately stands for nothing and is just an empty pants suit - an out of touch coastal elite. Now, you can argue all you want that that is unfair (and certainly, there is nothing she could do about the fact that a good percentage of this country deeply distrust anybody connected to the Bay Area), but the approach of the campaign contributed to this. One minute she's talking about price gouging (great!) next minute she's doing a series of events with a Cheney, then she's talking about housing costs (great!), then her surrogate Mark Cuban is talking about why billionaires like her (as though that's a good thing) and how she should fire Lina Khan. I spend a lot of time reading the news and by the end of the campaign I had no idea what to expect from a Harris presidency (mind you, didn't stop me from canvassing for her), so I can forgive the average voter for being confused. As someone said above, voters don't need detailed policies, but they do what a clear, consistent vision, and they need it delivered to them in different media outlets - rallies aren't enough. You can hate on Bernie all you want, but the guy goes on Fox News, he went on Joe Rogan's podcast and won his endorsement in 2020 (and got so much grief for it), he and AOC go on Twitch together and engage with voters, he's always doing virtual events, other podcasts, etc. - the man puts himself out there - that's why people trust he is who he says he is. Harris did some interviews, but it was too little too late. And they barely let Walz out at all. Baffling.
posted by coffeecat at 10:15 AM on November 7 [25 favorites]
George Monbiot: The Dems simply did not understand what was barrelling towards them: the results of their own craven appeasement of capital, across decades; their perennial, frightened, false belief that “people won’t accept systemic change, so let’s just offer tiny increments of change." The plural of incremental change is not systemic change. The plural of incremental change is failure. And this failure means that someone else does the systemic change, in a completely different way.
posted by mittens at 10:19 AM on November 7 [26 favorites]
posted by mittens at 10:19 AM on November 7 [26 favorites]
some of y'all can't wait to start choking people in the lifeboat
spoilt the atmosphere now
posted by flabdablet at 10:20 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
spoilt the atmosphere now
posted by flabdablet at 10:20 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
corb, I'll take time to digest that, thanks.
posted by clawsoon at 10:21 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 10:21 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Show me a plan that could make it through a divided Congress or shut the fuck up.
I suppose the way FDR did it was win in a time of unprecedented crisis as a moderate budget-balancer, then assume the imperial presidency with strength and vigor despite being a hidden invalid while playing off adversaries against each other. LBJ did it similarly except the crisis was localized to his boss.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:33 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I suppose the way FDR did it was win in a time of unprecedented crisis as a moderate budget-balancer, then assume the imperial presidency with strength and vigor despite being a hidden invalid while playing off adversaries against each other. LBJ did it similarly except the crisis was localized to his boss.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:33 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
>The plural of incremental change is failure.
The Corporate Dems have held the trifecta a total of 6 years since January 20, 1981: two years each in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2020s. Not a whole feckin' lot you can do without Congress. And what dribs we do get through that has to pass the SCOTUS majority's review.
Things are a lot, lot more fucked here than just with the corporate Dems. This is a 40%-40% split country; that middle swing 20% is the puzzle that needs to be solved I guess.
posted by torokunai at 10:35 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
The Corporate Dems have held the trifecta a total of 6 years since January 20, 1981: two years each in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2020s. Not a whole feckin' lot you can do without Congress. And what dribs we do get through that has to pass the SCOTUS majority's review.
Things are a lot, lot more fucked here than just with the corporate Dems. This is a 40%-40% split country; that middle swing 20% is the puzzle that needs to be solved I guess.
posted by torokunai at 10:35 AM on November 7 [3 favorites]
It's not really a middle swing, though, is it? It's a middle doesn't-give-a-shit-so-stay-home.
80% of each of the polarized 40%s voting the way they do because they see no essential difference between politics and sportsball doesn't help either.
posted by flabdablet at 10:43 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
80% of each of the polarized 40%s voting the way they do because they see no essential difference between politics and sportsball doesn't help either.
posted by flabdablet at 10:43 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
> Now, you can argue all you want that that is unfair (and certainly, there is nothing she could do about the fact that a good percentage of this country deeply distrust anybody connected to the Bay Area), but the approach of the campaign contributed to this. One minute she's talking about price gouging (great!) next minute she's doing a series of events with a Cheney, then she's talking about housing costs (great!), then her surrogate Mark Cuban is talking about why billionaires like her (as though that's a good thing) and how she should fire Lina Khan.
Somehow, Trump never got punished for his so-called "weave" approach, which was far less coherent than the mixed messages you correctly cite as problematic here. And Obama being vauge about "hope and change" and mixing in appeals to help people with a corporate-friendly message certainly didn't prevent him from winning twice.
Maybe we should think about why only certain candidates are punished for triangulation and others aren't. Being direct and consistent about what you believe and what you will do has upside but it also has downside. It turns out that voters believe both parties are going to eat their faces, which creates significant downside if the message is a more disciplined "we will devote the resources of the state to helping you and your families" message that so many here think would be the ultimate winner and drive people to the polls.
I would love to see this battle play out in the Democratic party apparatus now that they'll be in the wilderness for at least the next 2 years. I hope to see AOC as a voice for a much more populist appeal, and I hope she or someone like her eventually decides to run for the highest office. But it's far from a given that this message will have the electoral impact people assume here, in the country we have that just said yes to fascism. I hope it does, and it's certainly worth trying with the benefit of anti-incumbency redounding to the blue team in 2026, but I don't see a counterfactual where that could have worked against this specific candidate with the media apparatus and electorate we have right now.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:53 AM on November 7 [15 favorites]
Somehow, Trump never got punished for his so-called "weave" approach, which was far less coherent than the mixed messages you correctly cite as problematic here. And Obama being vauge about "hope and change" and mixing in appeals to help people with a corporate-friendly message certainly didn't prevent him from winning twice.
Maybe we should think about why only certain candidates are punished for triangulation and others aren't. Being direct and consistent about what you believe and what you will do has upside but it also has downside. It turns out that voters believe both parties are going to eat their faces, which creates significant downside if the message is a more disciplined "we will devote the resources of the state to helping you and your families" message that so many here think would be the ultimate winner and drive people to the polls.
I would love to see this battle play out in the Democratic party apparatus now that they'll be in the wilderness for at least the next 2 years. I hope to see AOC as a voice for a much more populist appeal, and I hope she or someone like her eventually decides to run for the highest office. But it's far from a given that this message will have the electoral impact people assume here, in the country we have that just said yes to fascism. I hope it does, and it's certainly worth trying with the benefit of anti-incumbency redounding to the blue team in 2026, but I don't see a counterfactual where that could have worked against this specific candidate with the media apparatus and electorate we have right now.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:53 AM on November 7 [15 favorites]
What are the chances that a bunch of low-motivation voters said in 2020, "Those 4 Trump years were bad!" and came out to vote in large numbers, but then in 2024 they said, "I guess those Trump years weren't so bad in context, whatever, I'm staying home"?
posted by clawsoon at 10:57 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 10:57 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
> What are the chances that a bunch of low-motivation voters said in 2020, "Those 4 Trump years were bad!" and came out to vote in large numbers, but then in 2024 they said, "I guess those Trump years weren't so bad in context, whatever, I'm staying home"?
Pretty good, I'd say, but only because we've somehow as a society memory-holed how badly he and his administration handled Covid and the response to it. This goldfish-brained view of history does seem to be the norm, though, so I don't think there's an option for Democrats to unilaterally disarm in their use of "what have they done for you lately" as a tactic.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:04 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]
Pretty good, I'd say, but only because we've somehow as a society memory-holed how badly he and his administration handled Covid and the response to it. This goldfish-brained view of history does seem to be the norm, though, so I don't think there's an option for Democrats to unilaterally disarm in their use of "what have they done for you lately" as a tactic.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:04 AM on November 7 [10 favorites]
Definitely get new Senator Andy Kim out in public/TikTok/Twitch/etc regularly, based on his comments in this Nitter thread and his post-insurrection viral image. "We'll clean it up."
Don't cede any time to the incoming administration during the transition period. No honeymoon, no victory lap. Establish a media presence online and in small groups of in-person voters; start campaigning for 2026 now with basic outreach and reminders. Democrats shouldn't waste time attending the upcoming inauguration -- do some positive counter-programming event.
Name and shame every Trump appointee in public, outside of the confirmation hearings. Tell people who they are getting and what they will do; define them and remind people where their pain and suffering are coming from. Fuck norms.
posted by JDC8 at 11:06 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Don't cede any time to the incoming administration during the transition period. No honeymoon, no victory lap. Establish a media presence online and in small groups of in-person voters; start campaigning for 2026 now with basic outreach and reminders. Democrats shouldn't waste time attending the upcoming inauguration -- do some positive counter-programming event.
Name and shame every Trump appointee in public, outside of the confirmation hearings. Tell people who they are getting and what they will do; define them and remind people where their pain and suffering are coming from. Fuck norms.
posted by JDC8 at 11:06 AM on November 7 [7 favorites]
This goldfish-brained view of history does seem to be the norm, though, so I don't think there's an option for Democrats to unilaterally disarm in their use of "what have they done for you lately" as a tactic.
The Harris campaign embracing the endorsements from the Cheneys, Alberto Gonzalez, etc. to cynically chase NeverTrumper and legacy neocon votes is them using the same tactic.
Honestly, I fully expect that in a few cycles the Democrats are going to be touting endorsements from Stephen Miller or Sebastian Gorka, because the GOP is gonna sink to levels you can't even fathom and the Democrats to craven meekness you can't even dream to the extent that the party establishment will go, "even former Trump officials and MAGA aren't so bad! They're our allies against [current bogeyman]!"
Just a decade or so and we'll all be reminiscing for the relative moderation and decorum of the Trump days.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:11 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
The Harris campaign embracing the endorsements from the Cheneys, Alberto Gonzalez, etc. to cynically chase NeverTrumper and legacy neocon votes is them using the same tactic.
Honestly, I fully expect that in a few cycles the Democrats are going to be touting endorsements from Stephen Miller or Sebastian Gorka, because the GOP is gonna sink to levels you can't even fathom and the Democrats to craven meekness you can't even dream to the extent that the party establishment will go, "even former Trump officials and MAGA aren't so bad! They're our allies against [current bogeyman]!"
Just a decade or so and we'll all be reminiscing for the relative moderation and decorum of the Trump days.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:11 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
some of y'all can't wait to start choking people in the lifeboat
knowledge is hollow, and pride is hard to swallow
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:20 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
knowledge is hollow, and pride is hard to swallow
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:20 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
> The Harris campaign embracing the endorsements from the Cheneys, Alberto Gonzalez, etc. to cynically chase NeverTrumper and legacy neocon votes is them using the same tactic.
I'd say there's a pretty significant difference given that Trump was being given a pass on the actual outcomes of his policies, while nobody in the Harris campaign was asking for anyone to endorse torture memos or the decision to invade Iraq after 9/11. There's also the matter that Covid was 4 years ago, and the events of Dubya's presidency were 20+ years ago, before many current voters were paying attention to politics.
I would not have made the support of these otherwise-reprehensible people as prominent a feature of the Harris campaign, but what the electorate is doing in accepting the alternate reality of just a few years ago seems like the kind of thing that only happens when a cynical campaign unconcerned with the truth meets a media ecosystem that's happy to amplify the propaganda.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:20 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
I'd say there's a pretty significant difference given that Trump was being given a pass on the actual outcomes of his policies, while nobody in the Harris campaign was asking for anyone to endorse torture memos or the decision to invade Iraq after 9/11. There's also the matter that Covid was 4 years ago, and the events of Dubya's presidency were 20+ years ago, before many current voters were paying attention to politics.
I would not have made the support of these otherwise-reprehensible people as prominent a feature of the Harris campaign, but what the electorate is doing in accepting the alternate reality of just a few years ago seems like the kind of thing that only happens when a cynical campaign unconcerned with the truth meets a media ecosystem that's happy to amplify the propaganda.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:20 AM on November 7 [8 favorites]
The plural of incremental change is failure.
The really shitty part about staying committed to incrementalism at all costs is that the FELs just keep on showing us all exactly what needs to happen to get a program of radical change pushed through: first decide what you want to do, then sit back in the weeds and make incremental organizational gains while waiting for opportunities to advance that program to materialize, then pounce on those opportunities in full force as and when they arrive.
What you don't do is just give up on your program of radical change for the sake of trying to peel off a few of your opposition's less committed sports fans.
We ardent progressives might well irritate the tripe out of the Practical Realists by insisting on arguing for positions that don't seem immediately achievable, but what irritates the tripe out of us is seeing the only party with any chance of actually being a vehicle for the kind of radical change that is demonstrably needed to keep the whole world from going down the gurgler actively and consistently oppose, marginalize and disempower those within its ranks who have spent their entire political careers figuring out what that change actually needs to look like and how it could be done.
Where is the Democratic Party's Federalist Society? It hasn't got one, because radical change frightens its dominant centrist faction. It does have a Squad, though. So although it's too much to expect the party machine as currently constituted to Lead, it would be so, so nice if it could bring itself to do less Follow and more Get Out Of The Way.
posted by flabdablet at 11:22 AM on November 7 [18 favorites]
The really shitty part about staying committed to incrementalism at all costs is that the FELs just keep on showing us all exactly what needs to happen to get a program of radical change pushed through: first decide what you want to do, then sit back in the weeds and make incremental organizational gains while waiting for opportunities to advance that program to materialize, then pounce on those opportunities in full force as and when they arrive.
What you don't do is just give up on your program of radical change for the sake of trying to peel off a few of your opposition's less committed sports fans.
We ardent progressives might well irritate the tripe out of the Practical Realists by insisting on arguing for positions that don't seem immediately achievable, but what irritates the tripe out of us is seeing the only party with any chance of actually being a vehicle for the kind of radical change that is demonstrably needed to keep the whole world from going down the gurgler actively and consistently oppose, marginalize and disempower those within its ranks who have spent their entire political careers figuring out what that change actually needs to look like and how it could be done.
Where is the Democratic Party's Federalist Society? It hasn't got one, because radical change frightens its dominant centrist faction. It does have a Squad, though. So although it's too much to expect the party machine as currently constituted to Lead, it would be so, so nice if it could bring itself to do less Follow and more Get Out Of The Way.
posted by flabdablet at 11:22 AM on November 7 [18 favorites]
when a cynical campaign unconcerned with the truth meets a media ecosystem that's happy to amplify the propaganda
Which, ironically enough, describes the Bush presidency as a tee. All of this was done twenty-four years ago (or was it forty-four years ago?) and we have never ever ever as a country come to grips with what happened. At least the '90s served as breathing room after the Cold War. We are still in the post-truth world, mocking those in the reality-based community. Someone should return "truthiness" to public usage, maybe Jon Stewart can now that he's back and while Colbert is off catering to network late night audiences.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:30 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
Which, ironically enough, describes the Bush presidency as a tee. All of this was done twenty-four years ago (or was it forty-four years ago?) and we have never ever ever as a country come to grips with what happened. At least the '90s served as breathing room after the Cold War. We are still in the post-truth world, mocking those in the reality-based community. Someone should return "truthiness" to public usage, maybe Jon Stewart can now that he's back and while Colbert is off catering to network late night audiences.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:30 AM on November 7 [5 favorites]
Somehow, Trump never got punished for his so-called "weave" approach, which was far less coherent than the mixed messages you correctly cite as problematic here. And Obama being vauge about "hope and change" and mixing in appeals to help people with a corporate-friendly message certainly didn't prevent him from winning twice.
Trump may love a good tangent, and he might not have always stayed on the message his campaign wanted him to, but the man is pretty consistent. I mean, even I, someone who abhors the man, believe that he only says what he genuinely wants to say. I feel like I know what he believes in. Speaking in tangents is different than being wishy-washy.
2008 was after eight grueling years of Bush and forever wars, and so yeah, 'Hope and Change' and a candidate who came off as thoughtful and kind was really appealing to a lot of people. In 2012 the GOP picked a really unappealing candidate who admitted to tying a dog on his car roof. And while yeah, the left had serious misgivings about Obama by then (drones, guantanamo bay, etc.), he had done enough good things that we didn't totally abandon him either. Turnout did drop a few points.
posted by coffeecat at 11:40 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Trump may love a good tangent, and he might not have always stayed on the message his campaign wanted him to, but the man is pretty consistent. I mean, even I, someone who abhors the man, believe that he only says what he genuinely wants to say. I feel like I know what he believes in. Speaking in tangents is different than being wishy-washy.
2008 was after eight grueling years of Bush and forever wars, and so yeah, 'Hope and Change' and a candidate who came off as thoughtful and kind was really appealing to a lot of people. In 2012 the GOP picked a really unappealing candidate who admitted to tying a dog on his car roof. And while yeah, the left had serious misgivings about Obama by then (drones, guantanamo bay, etc.), he had done enough good things that we didn't totally abandon him either. Turnout did drop a few points.
posted by coffeecat at 11:40 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
corb Y'all seem to be using the term "toxic masculinity" in a highly ideosyncratic way. "sexy men" is not toxic masculinity by the standard definitions.
When people talk about toxic masculinity it's not about "tearing men down" it's about looking at specific ways to be a man that are harmful both to society at large and to the man in question.
Toxic masculinity goes hand in hand with fragile masculinity and it's the shit about how real men have no emotions but rage and lust and real men are all violent and real men only keep women around because pussy and all that shit.
"If your boyfriend can't rebuild a Chevy engine in less than five hours.... you've got a girlfriend" and all the other "jokes" of that nature are toxic masculinity.
"Damn, Chris Hemsworth is hot as hell" is not toxic masculinity.
I would also dispute you WRT religion and misogyny. Yes, Sikhism is officially not horribly misogynist. But in pracitce a whole fuckton of Sikhs are horrible misogynists.
There's also a fuckton of horribly misogynist Buddhists.
Obviously the Abrahamic religions all have misogyny built into them at the most basic level, but that doesn't make any other religions safer. Even a religion that claims to have equality baked in such as Sikhism hasn't acutallly done a lot to reduce misogyny in practice.
I stand for religious liberty not because I like or endorse religion but only because I know that the quickest way to make a religion flourish is to oppress it and that religions tend to wither in freedom.
JDC8 In Biden's first public statements after the election, he called for "all sides" to "bring the temperature down" and has formally invited Trump to the White House (which Trump very much did NOT do in 2020).
So yeah, not much hope that the Democrats will be a resistence movement. The capitulation has already begun and I'm betting that like after Reagan won in 1980 the Democrats will be declaring that America has move to the right and they must as well for survival.
posted by sotonohito at 11:40 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]
When people talk about toxic masculinity it's not about "tearing men down" it's about looking at specific ways to be a man that are harmful both to society at large and to the man in question.
Toxic masculinity goes hand in hand with fragile masculinity and it's the shit about how real men have no emotions but rage and lust and real men are all violent and real men only keep women around because pussy and all that shit.
"If your boyfriend can't rebuild a Chevy engine in less than five hours.... you've got a girlfriend" and all the other "jokes" of that nature are toxic masculinity.
"Damn, Chris Hemsworth is hot as hell" is not toxic masculinity.
I would also dispute you WRT religion and misogyny. Yes, Sikhism is officially not horribly misogynist. But in pracitce a whole fuckton of Sikhs are horrible misogynists.
There's also a fuckton of horribly misogynist Buddhists.
Obviously the Abrahamic religions all have misogyny built into them at the most basic level, but that doesn't make any other religions safer. Even a religion that claims to have equality baked in such as Sikhism hasn't acutallly done a lot to reduce misogyny in practice.
I stand for religious liberty not because I like or endorse religion but only because I know that the quickest way to make a religion flourish is to oppress it and that religions tend to wither in freedom.
JDC8 In Biden's first public statements after the election, he called for "all sides" to "bring the temperature down" and has formally invited Trump to the White House (which Trump very much did NOT do in 2020).
So yeah, not much hope that the Democrats will be a resistence movement. The capitulation has already begun and I'm betting that like after Reagan won in 1980 the Democrats will be declaring that America has move to the right and they must as well for survival.
posted by sotonohito at 11:40 AM on November 7 [11 favorites]
A couple's therapist I follow posted this take on why there wasn't a blue wave.
It feels truthy to me and, frighteningly, feels close to what's happening up here in Canada with Trudeau and the Cons.
posted by Dalekdad at 11:41 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
It feels truthy to me and, frighteningly, feels close to what's happening up here in Canada with Trudeau and the Cons.
posted by Dalekdad at 11:41 AM on November 7 [4 favorites]
Speaking in tangents is different than being wishy-washy.
It's a form of misdirection, it dissipates focus, disconnects one statement from the next.
Watch one of his depositions sometime if you can stand it. (From a business dispute.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:50 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
It's a form of misdirection, it dissipates focus, disconnects one statement from the next.
Watch one of his depositions sometime if you can stand it. (From a business dispute.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:50 AM on November 7 [1 favorite]
Dalekdad, I've seen that and I've been thinking about it non-stop. But I really hate the idea that "Mommy" could have done a few things differently and would have won. Teenagers are just going to pick "Daddy" because he's more fun.
(I agree that Trudeau is a "Mommy" and that clear, simple messages about why conservative policies won't help anyone but the rich are needed.)
posted by kitcat at 11:56 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
(I agree that Trudeau is a "Mommy" and that clear, simple messages about why conservative policies won't help anyone but the rich are needed.)
posted by kitcat at 11:56 AM on November 7 [2 favorites]
This is probably not the thread for a full sidebar on the man-o-sphere's role in the election or what toxic masculinity means, but this might help
Men, Feminism, and Men's Contradictory Experiences of Power, Michael Kaufman, from Theorizing Masculinities (1994)
For Mommy v. Daddy in political rhetoric, see Lakoff's Moral Politics. Though in his mode, 'Daddy' is associated with the 'strict father.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:01 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Men, Feminism, and Men's Contradictory Experiences of Power, Michael Kaufman, from Theorizing Masculinities (1994)
For Mommy v. Daddy in political rhetoric, see Lakoff's Moral Politics. Though in his mode, 'Daddy' is associated with the 'strict father.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:01 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
> Where is the Democratic Party's Federalist Society? It hasn't got one, because radical change frightens its dominant centrist faction.
I'd say it hasn't got one because, unlike Republicans, Democrats don't have a single over-arching legal philosophy the way Republicans do with so-called originalism/textualism/strict constructionism. (Setting aside that originalism/textualism/strict constructionism are all just synonyms for "whatever policy outcomes conservatives want", which is true, but irrelevant considering the legal establishment believes it's a coherent legal doctrine, and they set the rules for how law is taught.) But let's say we wanted to invent a legal philosophy that could unify the different non-conservative strains of legal thought -- what would it look like? And what moneyed interest would have the resources and power of a Leonard Leo type figure, but for the left?
posted by tonycpsu at 12:13 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
I'd say it hasn't got one because, unlike Republicans, Democrats don't have a single over-arching legal philosophy the way Republicans do with so-called originalism/textualism/strict constructionism. (Setting aside that originalism/textualism/strict constructionism are all just synonyms for "whatever policy outcomes conservatives want", which is true, but irrelevant considering the legal establishment believes it's a coherent legal doctrine, and they set the rules for how law is taught.) But let's say we wanted to invent a legal philosophy that could unify the different non-conservative strains of legal thought -- what would it look like? And what moneyed interest would have the resources and power of a Leonard Leo type figure, but for the left?
posted by tonycpsu at 12:13 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
James Medlock:
Dems need to build a bigger tent with white people the way the GOP did with latinos. A few lessons from their approach:posted by Apocryphon at 12:15 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]
• call white areas trash
• say they’re importing white voters to end democracy
• run in an anti-incumbent environment where everyone is mad about inflation
It feels truthy to me and
feels really low-key misogynistic and equates hate speech with condescending language
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:16 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
feels really low-key misogynistic and equates hate speech with condescending language
posted by i used to be someone else at 12:16 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Anyway, we're doing high-key, mask-off misogynistic now (CW: Andrew Tate).
posted by tonycpsu at 12:21 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 12:21 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
It feels truthy to me
I think it accurately channels what the right is feeling. They are feeling condescended to. Feelings are not facts.
posted by kitcat at 12:27 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
I think it accurately channels what the right is feeling. They are feeling condescended to. Feelings are not facts.
posted by kitcat at 12:27 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Ironically, illiberal democracy poster child Orban of Hungary might be swept up in the anti-incumbency inflation wave.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:36 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 12:36 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
which side was so adamant about how facts don't care about feelings again?
posted by i used to be someone else at 1:12 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
posted by i used to be someone else at 1:12 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
@Kitcat - I don't love the gendered framing of it either, but I also think its on to something, yuckiness and all.
I also think that when people are struggling from paycheck to paycheck and are acutely aware that their money isn't going as far as it used it, it does come across as dismissive to hear a government say they are doing great on inflation or fail to take real action on housing.
PP, Ford, & Trump are clearly just telling flat out lies, but they are tapping into real (and sometimes ugly) fears & concerns.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:15 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
I also think that when people are struggling from paycheck to paycheck and are acutely aware that their money isn't going as far as it used it, it does come across as dismissive to hear a government say they are doing great on inflation or fail to take real action on housing.
PP, Ford, & Trump are clearly just telling flat out lies, but they are tapping into real (and sometimes ugly) fears & concerns.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:15 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Ok, but @i used to be someone else, but did anyone ever believe the a right winger saying "facts don't care about feelings?"
And based on speaking with less politically engaged people lately, the feelings being discussed are had by more than just conservatives.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:20 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
And based on speaking with less politically engaged people lately, the feelings being discussed are had by more than just conservatives.
posted by Dalekdad at 1:20 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
>fail to take real action on housing
Japan is just about the only front-rank economy with a non-fucked housing market, and that's mainly because of this.
Trudeau had a gaffe-by-truth when saying up in Canada "housing" wasn't a Federal-level thing to be addressed.
To fix housing we've got to get the parasitical rent-seeking out of it, good luck with that now.
posted by torokunai at 1:39 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Japan is just about the only front-rank economy with a non-fucked housing market, and that's mainly because of this.
Trudeau had a gaffe-by-truth when saying up in Canada "housing" wasn't a Federal-level thing to be addressed.
To fix housing we've got to get the parasitical rent-seeking out of it, good luck with that now.
posted by torokunai at 1:39 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
On Instagram, Carsie Blanton bucks us up:
A lot of people are feeling hopeless and depressed today, Which makes perfect sense. But I'm not feeling that way myself. I'm feeling hopeful and I want to share with you where I get my hope... begins Carsie Blanton on Instagram. And she has a plan. tldr: we are all in this together, so let's organize already. It's worth your time. Man, in the When Harry Met Sally sense, I'll have what she's having.
posted by y2karl at 1:40 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
A lot of people are feeling hopeless and depressed today, Which makes perfect sense. But I'm not feeling that way myself. I'm feeling hopeful and I want to share with you where I get my hope... begins Carsie Blanton on Instagram. And she has a plan. tldr: we are all in this together, so let's organize already. It's worth your time. Man, in the When Harry Met Sally sense, I'll have what she's having.
posted by y2karl at 1:40 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
It feels truthy to me
I completely disagree with everything that woman said in that video. All this talk about a bubble- that woman was using the language of her bubble.
Harris did in fact make all those points that she was saying that she should have.
-Harris did point out that trickle-down economics doesn't work, and what the actual result is.
-Harris did indeed point out that inflation was caused by price-gouging and mergers.
-She pointed out why an unbalanced Supreme Court isn't good for the country as a whole.
All those arguments that Harris made fell on deaf ears, because so many people, like that Tik-Toker, were already well-primed by right-wing and "mainstream" media with the idea that Democrats are condescending and bad at the economy, while Republicans are "real" people and are good at the economy. It's a vibes-based argument that is further made more entrenched by the economic pinch that inflation caused.
What that video is illustrating is the bubble that conservative America lives in, and the Democratic party's inability to pierce that bubble.
I feel like when Harris picked Walz there was a momentum shift where some people in that conservative bubble could be reached, but that tack back to the establishment right-wing kinda killed it.
It reiterates to me the importance of finding ways to connect with people that can fundamentally move them despite their media-reinforced bubbles.
posted by ishmael at 1:43 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]
I completely disagree with everything that woman said in that video. All this talk about a bubble- that woman was using the language of her bubble.
Harris did in fact make all those points that she was saying that she should have.
-Harris did point out that trickle-down economics doesn't work, and what the actual result is.
-Harris did indeed point out that inflation was caused by price-gouging and mergers.
-She pointed out why an unbalanced Supreme Court isn't good for the country as a whole.
All those arguments that Harris made fell on deaf ears, because so many people, like that Tik-Toker, were already well-primed by right-wing and "mainstream" media with the idea that Democrats are condescending and bad at the economy, while Republicans are "real" people and are good at the economy. It's a vibes-based argument that is further made more entrenched by the economic pinch that inflation caused.
What that video is illustrating is the bubble that conservative America lives in, and the Democratic party's inability to pierce that bubble.
I feel like when Harris picked Walz there was a momentum shift where some people in that conservative bubble could be reached, but that tack back to the establishment right-wing kinda killed it.
It reiterates to me the importance of finding ways to connect with people that can fundamentally move them despite their media-reinforced bubbles.
posted by ishmael at 1:43 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]
^
"Besides, as the vilest Writer has his Readers, so the greatest Liar has his Believers; and it often happens, that if a Lie be believ’d only for an Hour, it has done its Work, and there is no farther occasion for it. Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it; so that when Men come to be undeceiv’d, it is too late; the Jest is over, and the Tale has had its Effect." – Jonathan Swift
posted by torokunai at 1:51 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
"Besides, as the vilest Writer has his Readers, so the greatest Liar has his Believers; and it often happens, that if a Lie be believ’d only for an Hour, it has done its Work, and there is no farther occasion for it. Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it; so that when Men come to be undeceiv’d, it is too late; the Jest is over, and the Tale has had its Effect." – Jonathan Swift
posted by torokunai at 1:51 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
As far as "first female president" goes I like Harris a lot more than H.Clinton. (Warren could have been great though...)
I should hope to live long enough to vote for Jasmine Crockett in that regard...
posted by y2karl at 2:16 PM on November 7
I should hope to live long enough to vote for Jasmine Crockett in that regard...
posted by y2karl at 2:16 PM on November 7
LibrarianWriterGeek (@sctadsen.bsky.social):
Hi, swing state resident here.Reply:
I saw *plenty* of Harris ads laying out her economic policies.
But *every* Trump ad went after trans people.
So, when Bernie says Dems need to focus less on "identity politics" and more on "economic issues," what the screaming blue *fuck* does he mean?
Trump’s gains were smaller in the swing states than in safe blue states where there was no Harris messaging. By like 2 percentage points. So yes, talking about economic issues softened the blow in the states where voters were actually exposed to that message.Original author responds:
So, just to be clear here:posted by tonycpsu at 2:22 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]
Harris did *exactly* what Bernie is suggesting here, yet *still* lost.
So I ask again, when he proposes abandoning "identity politics," what does he mean, especially in light of this election, where Harris was entirely silent on "identity politics?"
Results are still coming in: Casey (D-PA) has lost his Senate seat, so that brings it to at least 53 Republican senators. That means that the only way any of Trump's nominees don't make it through the Senate is if they're too crazy / incompetent / unqualified for four Republicans, which effectively means that none of them will be rejected.
If the Republicans also take the House, I fully expect Senate Republicans to eliminate or at least significantly weaken the filibuster.
posted by jedicus at 2:35 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
If the Republicans also take the House, I fully expect Senate Republicans to eliminate or at least significantly weaken the filibuster.
posted by jedicus at 2:35 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I'm in California and that person's experience matches mine as well, and I think I saw more Harris ads than Trump until the last couple days. Harris ads were: a) Trump's policies only benefit billionaires (footage from Trump speech), b) members of prior Trump administration think he's nuts, c) Trump's not for "regular" people, with lots of testimonials. Trump ads were either "Kamala was in charge of the border and [standard Trump racist trash about immigrants]" or one with footage of Harris supporting gender-affirming surgery for prisoners.
posted by LionIndex at 2:39 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
posted by LionIndex at 2:39 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Hey where did Bernie say that the dems should abandon identity politics.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 2:51 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 2:51 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
You can have great policies, but if you can't connect to people they aren't going to understand those policies or feel connected to the politician,..
Was going to say this, but coffeecat already said it better. It's the one point that Sanders and Trump (and maybe effective populists in general?) excel at - allowing themselves to be very direct and angry in the issues they're passionate about, and driving the point home over and over in simple relatable speaking style. Obama was so eloquent and likeable that he sort of got a pass without it, but a lot of the establishment politicians sound more like they're reciting a homework project.
Also if the party goes economic populism against the billionaire class, please don't invite Mark Cuban next time- with Elon standing alongside Trump, there was a perfect setup to paint them as the billionaire's trying to trick the working class, while we are the real deal. But then I hear Cuban in some interview saying that even though Harris was onboard with Bidens tax proposal to tax unrealized gains for the 100M+ earners, she wouldn't really do it, and he's not worried about it, and she just had to say that to win over parts of the coalition- we'd be better off with no endorsement from him if that's how he wants to sell it. Maybe we have to play nice with the donors until changes are made? But at least get them to not undercut the message that resonates with the largest swath of voters.
posted by p3t3 at 2:54 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
Was going to say this, but coffeecat already said it better. It's the one point that Sanders and Trump (and maybe effective populists in general?) excel at - allowing themselves to be very direct and angry in the issues they're passionate about, and driving the point home over and over in simple relatable speaking style. Obama was so eloquent and likeable that he sort of got a pass without it, but a lot of the establishment politicians sound more like they're reciting a homework project.
Also if the party goes economic populism against the billionaire class, please don't invite Mark Cuban next time- with Elon standing alongside Trump, there was a perfect setup to paint them as the billionaire's trying to trick the working class, while we are the real deal. But then I hear Cuban in some interview saying that even though Harris was onboard with Bidens tax proposal to tax unrealized gains for the 100M+ earners, she wouldn't really do it, and he's not worried about it, and she just had to say that to win over parts of the coalition- we'd be better off with no endorsement from him if that's how he wants to sell it. Maybe we have to play nice with the donors until changes are made? But at least get them to not undercut the message that resonates with the largest swath of voters.
posted by p3t3 at 2:54 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
All those arguments that Harris made fell on deaf ears, because so many people, like that Tik-Toker, were already well-primed by right-wing and "mainstream" media with the idea that Democrats are condescending and bad at the economy, while Republicans are "real" people and are good at the economy. It's a vibes-based argument that is further made more entrenched by the economic pinch that inflation caused.
What that video is illustrating is the bubble that conservative America lives in, and the Democratic party's inability to pierce that bubble.
And that is what won Trump this election -- something of a combo platter of that lady's argument and yours.
a) Decades of conservative messaging that Democratic governance, social programs, education and spending are not helping you, will never help you and can never help you.
b) Getting cranks, kooks and nonentities elected to Congress to block the vast, vast, vast majority of legislation and policy that could possibly help on multiple fronts, thus proving their point by deliberately willing it into existence.
c) Trump dramatically accelerating his base's utter distrust of the media, of the government, of the facts, of reality itself.
Harris did make those points in ads and in speeches. But that doesn't matter to people who don't listen to her speeches, or hear only cropped ten-second sound bites devoid of context being ridiculed on Fox News. And that doesn't matter even if they do hear the truth if they are thoroughly pre-programmed not to believe a word of it because the source automatically disqualifies it.
d) Trump being a walking emotional appeal encouraging his flock to feel, not think, at all times.
To let their emotions guide their decisions. To chant a euphemism for "Fuck Joe Biden" at the top of their lungs -- or to simply skip the euphemism. To make the other side not just wrong, but pedophiles and child molesters and dementia-ridden incompetents actively laughing at one's suffering. To portray the Other as not just different, but child-killing rapists and cannibals and murderers and pet-eaters. To reject the truth when they hear it even if it's a doctor or a scientist or even a fellow Republican speaking it, if there's another source saying something that they would rather hear instead.
The Republican base doesn't have no faith in government; it has negative faith in government, unless they are actively controlling it. The low-information voters don't have a way to distinguish reasonable from ridiculous if Fox trumpets the ridiculous at top volume and if mainstream media choose to present the ridiculous as if it's valid in any way, as if Opinions Simply Differ.
And that is where we are now.
posted by delfin at 2:56 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]
What that video is illustrating is the bubble that conservative America lives in, and the Democratic party's inability to pierce that bubble.
And that is what won Trump this election -- something of a combo platter of that lady's argument and yours.
a) Decades of conservative messaging that Democratic governance, social programs, education and spending are not helping you, will never help you and can never help you.
b) Getting cranks, kooks and nonentities elected to Congress to block the vast, vast, vast majority of legislation and policy that could possibly help on multiple fronts, thus proving their point by deliberately willing it into existence.
c) Trump dramatically accelerating his base's utter distrust of the media, of the government, of the facts, of reality itself.
Harris did make those points in ads and in speeches. But that doesn't matter to people who don't listen to her speeches, or hear only cropped ten-second sound bites devoid of context being ridiculed on Fox News. And that doesn't matter even if they do hear the truth if they are thoroughly pre-programmed not to believe a word of it because the source automatically disqualifies it.
d) Trump being a walking emotional appeal encouraging his flock to feel, not think, at all times.
To let their emotions guide their decisions. To chant a euphemism for "Fuck Joe Biden" at the top of their lungs -- or to simply skip the euphemism. To make the other side not just wrong, but pedophiles and child molesters and dementia-ridden incompetents actively laughing at one's suffering. To portray the Other as not just different, but child-killing rapists and cannibals and murderers and pet-eaters. To reject the truth when they hear it even if it's a doctor or a scientist or even a fellow Republican speaking it, if there's another source saying something that they would rather hear instead.
The Republican base doesn't have no faith in government; it has negative faith in government, unless they are actively controlling it. The low-information voters don't have a way to distinguish reasonable from ridiculous if Fox trumpets the ridiculous at top volume and if mainstream media choose to present the ridiculous as if it's valid in any way, as if Opinions Simply Differ.
And that is where we are now.
posted by delfin at 2:56 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]
What are the chances that a bunch of low-motivation voters said in 2020, "Those 4 Trump years were bad!" and came out to vote in large numbers, but then in 2024 they said, "I guess those Trump years weren't so bad in context, whatever, I'm staying home"?
Pretty good, I'd say, but only because we've somehow as a society memory-holed how badly he and his administration handled Covid and the response to it. This goldfish-brained view of history does seem to be the norm, though, so I don't think there's an option for Democrats to unilaterally disarm in their use of "what have they done for you lately" as a tactic.
My major complaint about the Harris campaign is that they spent too much time talking about how bad a Trump presidency would be in the future and not nearly enough time talking about how bad the previous Trump presidency already was.
The Repugs tried to run the "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" tactic and Harris/Walz should have jumped on that with both feet and kept on jumping.
"NO WE'RE NOT BECAUSE 4 YEARS AGO WE HAD TRAILERS FULL OF DEAD PEOPLE."
"NO WE'RE NOT BECAUSE 4 YEARS AGO YOU COULDN'T LEAVE THE HOUSE."
"YOUR RENT AND MORTGAGE AND GROCERIES COST MORE BECAUSE TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS FUCKED UP OUR COVID RESPONSE."
"WE WANTED TO GIVE YOU 3 TIMES AS MUCH MONEY TO STAY THE FUCK HOME AND THE CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS WOULDN'T LET US."
Lord knows if this would've penetrated enough goldfish brains to make a difference, but it couldn't have hurt.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:03 PM on November 7 [29 favorites]
Pretty good, I'd say, but only because we've somehow as a society memory-holed how badly he and his administration handled Covid and the response to it. This goldfish-brained view of history does seem to be the norm, though, so I don't think there's an option for Democrats to unilaterally disarm in their use of "what have they done for you lately" as a tactic.
My major complaint about the Harris campaign is that they spent too much time talking about how bad a Trump presidency would be in the future and not nearly enough time talking about how bad the previous Trump presidency already was.
The Repugs tried to run the "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" tactic and Harris/Walz should have jumped on that with both feet and kept on jumping.
"NO WE'RE NOT BECAUSE 4 YEARS AGO WE HAD TRAILERS FULL OF DEAD PEOPLE."
"NO WE'RE NOT BECAUSE 4 YEARS AGO YOU COULDN'T LEAVE THE HOUSE."
"YOUR RENT AND MORTGAGE AND GROCERIES COST MORE BECAUSE TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS FUCKED UP OUR COVID RESPONSE."
"WE WANTED TO GIVE YOU 3 TIMES AS MUCH MONEY TO STAY THE FUCK HOME AND THE CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS WOULDN'T LET US."
Lord knows if this would've penetrated enough goldfish brains to make a difference, but it couldn't have hurt.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:03 PM on November 7 [29 favorites]
Also if the party goes economic populism against the billionaire class, please don't invite Mark Cuban next time
QFT.
if it wasn't for Trump's, uhm, descent of the staircase, i think "mark cuban" and "donald trump" would be one of those many pairs of data points to which my sieve-like addled brain refuses to allow two separate memory addresses because they're functionally identical data points at the level of detail i need to care about.
(in that parallel better universe i'd still be like "oh, right, that rich asshole mark trump! was "the apprentice" that show where people pitch ideas for climbing roombas to clean windows and/or special high-frequency headphones for dogs to listen to podcasts? and then a panel of self-important business wankers berate them? and maybe there's an australian version? and IIRC mark trump's cuban? did they kick his landlord parasite ass out in '59 or what? isn't he too young?")
posted by busted_crayons at 3:21 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
QFT.
if it wasn't for Trump's, uhm, descent of the staircase, i think "mark cuban" and "donald trump" would be one of those many pairs of data points to which my sieve-like addled brain refuses to allow two separate memory addresses because they're functionally identical data points at the level of detail i need to care about.
(in that parallel better universe i'd still be like "oh, right, that rich asshole mark trump! was "the apprentice" that show where people pitch ideas for climbing roombas to clean windows and/or special high-frequency headphones for dogs to listen to podcasts? and then a panel of self-important business wankers berate them? and maybe there's an australian version? and IIRC mark trump's cuban? did they kick his landlord parasite ass out in '59 or what? isn't he too young?")
posted by busted_crayons at 3:21 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Hey where did Bernie say that the dems should abandon identity politics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/politics/democrats-kamala-harris.html
“It’s not just Kamala,” he said. “It’s a Democratic Party which increasingly has become a party of identity politics, rather than understanding that the vast majority of people in this country are working class. This trend of workers leaving the Democratic Party started with whites, and it has accelerated to Latinos and Blacks.”
posted by tonycpsu at 3:30 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Results are still coming in: Casey (D-PA) has lost his Senate seat, so that brings it to at least 53 Republican senators.
I believe this might be inconclusive; there appear to be more ballots to review and the percentage is less than 0.5.
Pennsylvania statute requires an automatic recount for statewide candidates and ballot questions if the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes cast for that contest.
posted by JDC8 at 3:36 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
I believe this might be inconclusive; there appear to be more ballots to review and the percentage is less than 0.5.
Pennsylvania statute requires an automatic recount for statewide candidates and ballot questions if the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes cast for that contest.
posted by JDC8 at 3:36 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
"YOUR RENT AND MORTGAGE AND GROCERIES COST MORE BECAUSE TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS FUCKED UP OUR COVID RESPONSE."
This makes no sense. Inflation was a global phenomenon and happened mostly under Bidens watch. Having said that, it’s a great message. You don’t need to explain why it’s trumps fault, just say it over and over again. Politics baby!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:37 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
This makes no sense. Inflation was a global phenomenon and happened mostly under Bidens watch. Having said that, it’s a great message. You don’t need to explain why it’s trumps fault, just say it over and over again. Politics baby!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:37 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
some of y'all can't wait to start choking people in the lifeboat
I just really want third-party voters, abstainers, and similar people who poisoned the discourse or bought poisoned discourse to finally just S.T.F.U. for once, while the rest of us have to deal with the deadly catastrophe they have helped Trump voters cause for all of us.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:38 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I just really want third-party voters, abstainers, and similar people who poisoned the discourse or bought poisoned discourse to finally just S.T.F.U. for once, while the rest of us have to deal with the deadly catastrophe they have helped Trump voters cause for all of us.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:38 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
hi I'm a similar people
yes, Trump enabler, that's me
I'm clearly the problem, I think you're coming at this precisely the right way and now I can see that this approach will yield the victory next time
posted by ginger.beef at 3:47 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]
yes, Trump enabler, that's me
I'm clearly the problem, I think you're coming at this precisely the right way and now I can see that this approach will yield the victory next time
posted by ginger.beef at 3:47 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]
Yeah, my one Jill Stein voting friend was all, "I'm sorry for those of you who voted for her, but I knew Trump was going to win" and I just wanted to be all, NOT NOW, GIRL. Also, aren't you affected knowing a good chunk of your friends are going to be hurt by this?!
In less than two hours I can go home and DRINK and collapse and stop pretending to be normal in public. Maybe bury my Kamala doll and childless cat lady flag sign together.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:49 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
In less than two hours I can go home and DRINK and collapse and stop pretending to be normal in public. Maybe bury my Kamala doll and childless cat lady flag sign together.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:49 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
I'm clearly the problem, I think you're coming at this precisely the right way and now I can see that this approach will yield the victory next time
It's a MeFi Miracle®! :D
posted by mazola at 3:52 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
It's a MeFi Miracle®! :D
posted by mazola at 3:52 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
some of y'all can't wait to start choking people in the lifeboat
Some of us who are in the lifeboat with you are remembering all the times you loudly proclaimed your outrage at the travel of the original ship, and how a subset of that group set about drilling tiny holes in the hull. And we were like "It's the only ship we got right now! Plus, if you sink it you will be in a lifeboat with us."
And now we're sitting next to you in the lifeboat, and we still have to hear you talk about how much you hated our ship.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 3:53 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
Some of us who are in the lifeboat with you are remembering all the times you loudly proclaimed your outrage at the travel of the original ship, and how a subset of that group set about drilling tiny holes in the hull. And we were like "It's the only ship we got right now! Plus, if you sink it you will be in a lifeboat with us."
And now we're sitting next to you in the lifeboat, and we still have to hear you talk about how much you hated our ship.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 3:53 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
now we're sitting next to you in the lifeboat, and we still have to hear you talk about how much you hated our ship.
Everyone is frustrated. A lot of people raised issues with the ship and were told that we shouldn’t criticize, because all of the flaws were necessary in order for the ship to make it to shore. Now the ship has sunk, and it’s obvious that was a flawed analysis as well. All the same, it doesn’t matter: the ship is still sunk, and nothing will unsink it. What is done is done. The only things that can be done now are to figure out how to build a better ship, or figure out how to make the lifeboat more seaworthy.
posted by corb at 3:59 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]
Everyone is frustrated. A lot of people raised issues with the ship and were told that we shouldn’t criticize, because all of the flaws were necessary in order for the ship to make it to shore. Now the ship has sunk, and it’s obvious that was a flawed analysis as well. All the same, it doesn’t matter: the ship is still sunk, and nothing will unsink it. What is done is done. The only things that can be done now are to figure out how to build a better ship, or figure out how to make the lifeboat more seaworthy.
posted by corb at 3:59 PM on November 7 [19 favorites]
You know what I've concluded, after this election? (TW: naked despair)
I think the fascism that's emerged/emerging is bigger than the American political system. It's fueled by a majority of the population that's some combination of stupid, mean, shitty, nationalist, selfish, cruel, racist, and misogynist. It's amplified by the biggest propaganda network the world's ever seen. It's propped up by an ocean of privately-owned guns. And it's commandeered by the most powerful, wealthy, greedy, reckless, and sociopathic people the world's ever seen. That's too big for the political system of any nation in the current era--even a nation as populous and powerful as the United States--to reckon with.
That means the end of this fascism can't happen through politics. It probably can't be ended through social movements either. All the post-mortems about What Went Wrong and How the Dems Could Have Done It Better and What Motivates Trump Voters are garbage. What went wrong and what motivates Trump voters is what I describe above, and nothing the Dems could have done or could do matters.
I'm convinced now that only a total reset--some massively disrupting event, thrust upon us from outside of our control--will give us even the opportunity to destroy the fascism that's taken hold, with no guarantees there either. A prolonged economic depression, a natural disaster that somehow flattens North America, some as-of-yet-impossible invasion by another country, the internet shitting the bed--that level of disruption.
I'm not pleased to have come to this conclusion. I hate it, in fact. And this realization doesn't make me an accelerationist--I'm no cheerleader for horrible stuff to happen, and I don't want to foment any catastrophes. It scares the shit out of me, honestly. For me, this realization is just that--a realization--something that's come into focus crystal clear over the past couple days. The New Deal social and political paradigm, the de-Nazification of Germany, the end of slavery in the US--they couldn't have really happened without some pretty massive disruptions, good or bad, but mostly out of the control of what anybody could have planned for and caused to happen. The current situation is the same, I'm afraid.
This comment is a bit pessimistic, isn't it? Yeah, sorry for that. I know this isn't a popular take here, and I understand and appreciate why. It's not going to get better before it gets existentially worse, I guess is what I'm saying.
posted by Rykey at 4:02 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]
I think the fascism that's emerged/emerging is bigger than the American political system. It's fueled by a majority of the population that's some combination of stupid, mean, shitty, nationalist, selfish, cruel, racist, and misogynist. It's amplified by the biggest propaganda network the world's ever seen. It's propped up by an ocean of privately-owned guns. And it's commandeered by the most powerful, wealthy, greedy, reckless, and sociopathic people the world's ever seen. That's too big for the political system of any nation in the current era--even a nation as populous and powerful as the United States--to reckon with.
That means the end of this fascism can't happen through politics. It probably can't be ended through social movements either. All the post-mortems about What Went Wrong and How the Dems Could Have Done It Better and What Motivates Trump Voters are garbage. What went wrong and what motivates Trump voters is what I describe above, and nothing the Dems could have done or could do matters.
I'm convinced now that only a total reset--some massively disrupting event, thrust upon us from outside of our control--will give us even the opportunity to destroy the fascism that's taken hold, with no guarantees there either. A prolonged economic depression, a natural disaster that somehow flattens North America, some as-of-yet-impossible invasion by another country, the internet shitting the bed--that level of disruption.
I'm not pleased to have come to this conclusion. I hate it, in fact. And this realization doesn't make me an accelerationist--I'm no cheerleader for horrible stuff to happen, and I don't want to foment any catastrophes. It scares the shit out of me, honestly. For me, this realization is just that--a realization--something that's come into focus crystal clear over the past couple days. The New Deal social and political paradigm, the de-Nazification of Germany, the end of slavery in the US--they couldn't have really happened without some pretty massive disruptions, good or bad, but mostly out of the control of what anybody could have planned for and caused to happen. The current situation is the same, I'm afraid.
This comment is a bit pessimistic, isn't it? Yeah, sorry for that. I know this isn't a popular take here, and I understand and appreciate why. It's not going to get better before it gets existentially worse, I guess is what I'm saying.
posted by Rykey at 4:02 PM on November 7 [23 favorites]
it really speaks to your tone deafness that you are singling out a comment by a MeFite who was calling attention to the fractiousness of so many comments.. with fighty fractiousness
at least choose your targets better. DOT had a valid point, I can't see why you took it personally
abusing the edit window to say this is addressed to The Pluto Gangsta's continuation of the lifeboat analogy.. misguidedly, imo
posted by ginger.beef at 4:02 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
at least choose your targets better. DOT had a valid point, I can't see why you took it personally
abusing the edit window to say this is addressed to The Pluto Gangsta's continuation of the lifeboat analogy.. misguidedly, imo
posted by ginger.beef at 4:02 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
The Repugs tried to run the "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" tactic and Harris/Walz should have jumped on that with both feet and kept on jumping.
"NO WE'RE NOT BECAUSE 4 YEARS AGO WE HAD TRAILERS FULL OF DEAD PEOPLE."
Yeah, Tim Walz brought up COVID once during the VP debate, which stuck out to me as maybe the only time either he, Harris, or Biden had pointed to the pandemic as a major factor for why things are the way they are right now. I have no doubt that some genius campaign manager was whispering in their ears "don't mention COVID, bad vibes" but I dunno, it's like my first year teaching when I was overwhelmed with developing new courses and drowning in grading - I didn't want to look weak (especially as a young female professor) and so avoided addressing it, which understandably just aggravated the students. Whereas when I just leveled with the them and briefly explained the reasons and promised I was working hard on their behalf, most were willing to extend me a bit of grace. I'm not claiming this is a perfect analogy, teaching is just the only time I've held any sort of leadership role - and I found that leaning into one's weakness was pretty much always better than hiding it. It was inevitable that aspects of life would get harder as a result of a global pandemic, Democrats couldn't avoid that, but they needed a better narrative to tell voters about why its inevitability wasn't their fault.
I dunno, this is real hindsight is 20/20 - I'm not blaming anyone for this - but Americans by and large needed more emotional/intellectual help adjusting to post-COVID life. This isn't the sort of thing that our government is really set up to do well. But when I consider the grotesque amount of money poured into the last few months of the campaign, I wonder if some of that wouldn't have been better spent trying out different ways to better reach the masses with basic information. Politics is still set up based on undated models - i.e. have a press conference, press circulates that information. That worked more or less when most people read newspapers or listened to news on the radio, but that's not the case now. And they needed to take the temperature of the electorate more. As has already mentioned, a competitive primary would have been one way to do that. If there is one takeaway from the last year, it's that if an incumbent is unpopular the party should strongly encourage a competitive primary to occur. Parties should work for the party, not the ego or desires of one individual leader.
posted by coffeecat at 4:04 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]
"NO WE'RE NOT BECAUSE 4 YEARS AGO WE HAD TRAILERS FULL OF DEAD PEOPLE."
Yeah, Tim Walz brought up COVID once during the VP debate, which stuck out to me as maybe the only time either he, Harris, or Biden had pointed to the pandemic as a major factor for why things are the way they are right now. I have no doubt that some genius campaign manager was whispering in their ears "don't mention COVID, bad vibes" but I dunno, it's like my first year teaching when I was overwhelmed with developing new courses and drowning in grading - I didn't want to look weak (especially as a young female professor) and so avoided addressing it, which understandably just aggravated the students. Whereas when I just leveled with the them and briefly explained the reasons and promised I was working hard on their behalf, most were willing to extend me a bit of grace. I'm not claiming this is a perfect analogy, teaching is just the only time I've held any sort of leadership role - and I found that leaning into one's weakness was pretty much always better than hiding it. It was inevitable that aspects of life would get harder as a result of a global pandemic, Democrats couldn't avoid that, but they needed a better narrative to tell voters about why its inevitability wasn't their fault.
I dunno, this is real hindsight is 20/20 - I'm not blaming anyone for this - but Americans by and large needed more emotional/intellectual help adjusting to post-COVID life. This isn't the sort of thing that our government is really set up to do well. But when I consider the grotesque amount of money poured into the last few months of the campaign, I wonder if some of that wouldn't have been better spent trying out different ways to better reach the masses with basic information. Politics is still set up based on undated models - i.e. have a press conference, press circulates that information. That worked more or less when most people read newspapers or listened to news on the radio, but that's not the case now. And they needed to take the temperature of the electorate more. As has already mentioned, a competitive primary would have been one way to do that. If there is one takeaway from the last year, it's that if an incumbent is unpopular the party should strongly encourage a competitive primary to occur. Parties should work for the party, not the ego or desires of one individual leader.
posted by coffeecat at 4:04 PM on November 7 [20 favorites]
Americans by and large needed more emotional/intellectual help adjusting to post-COVID life
That is a very good way to put things. I appreciate this comment a lot.
posted by mittens at 4:07 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
That is a very good way to put things. I appreciate this comment a lot.
posted by mittens at 4:07 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I agree with you, Rykey. Right wing and fascism and hate, all that stuff, is triumphing across the globe, not even just here (per the comments about "you wanna move elsewhere? where is better?!"). I'm not even sure if World War III would be enough to turn the tide.
It always boils down to "kill the weirdos," in my experience. The weirdos should outnumber the straight cisgender white men somehow (apparently the only population that isn't weird), and yet, this is always what happens. Get rid of anyone who frightens me, disturbs me, weirds me out. We support the guy who supports persecuting those people to the death. The Democrats can't do anything about that, since they are as close as we get to Team Who Accepts Weirdos. We have discovered now that those people DO outnumber us. The Democratic myth was that we're secretly a majority and it's just gerrymandering or whatever, but ... no, we're the minority.
We need to plan for trying to preserve our weird selves for as long as we can manage before they get us, I'm afraid. Or conform and hope that moves us down on the priority list of People To Eliminate, I suppose.
(And now my workday is about over and I am going to go home and drink, which I haven't been able to do for two days. The one thing I'm looking forward to is being left alone to not have to pretend to be okay in public. Also insurance is refusing to supply me with more medication, so things are gonna be REAL fun next week.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:28 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]
It always boils down to "kill the weirdos," in my experience. The weirdos should outnumber the straight cisgender white men somehow (apparently the only population that isn't weird), and yet, this is always what happens. Get rid of anyone who frightens me, disturbs me, weirds me out. We support the guy who supports persecuting those people to the death. The Democrats can't do anything about that, since they are as close as we get to Team Who Accepts Weirdos. We have discovered now that those people DO outnumber us. The Democratic myth was that we're secretly a majority and it's just gerrymandering or whatever, but ... no, we're the minority.
We need to plan for trying to preserve our weird selves for as long as we can manage before they get us, I'm afraid. Or conform and hope that moves us down on the priority list of People To Eliminate, I suppose.
(And now my workday is about over and I am going to go home and drink, which I haven't been able to do for two days. The one thing I'm looking forward to is being left alone to not have to pretend to be okay in public. Also insurance is refusing to supply me with more medication, so things are gonna be REAL fun next week.)
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:28 PM on November 7 [10 favorites]
Some of us who are in the lifeboat with you are remembering all the times you loudly proclaimed your outrage at the travel of the original ship, and how a subset of that group set about drilling tiny holes in the hull
If your campaign depends on no one on a message board of a couple thousand users criticizing the candidate, you are already doomed.
Also, you might want to avoid being complicit in any atrocities. You know just to be on the safe side.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:51 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]
If your campaign depends on no one on a message board of a couple thousand users criticizing the candidate, you are already doomed.
Also, you might want to avoid being complicit in any atrocities. You know just to be on the safe side.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:51 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]
Re: post-COVID life - apparently the CDC is now (?) ramping up socmed messaging about potential H5N1 symptoms to look out for. Public health is where I do get quite upset with how literal the adage, "when America coughs, everyone else gets a cold," is. Americans are designed collectively to be irresponsible (from the unable to not free travel outside borders, not instituting actually relevant and effective border control, not masking and perpetuating anti-masking behaviours worldwide through mass media*, leaning on the WHO for this or that guidelines forcing countries to go rogue but hey at least COVID normalized this, being part of the Western bloc that interferes with the international development and aid side of vaccination if not actively by cutting queue then by devoting fuck-all money for R&D), save for spots of collective or at least individual, actions. Can't even mitigate that without effecting the elections somehow and I'm not part of a lobby group on behalf of foreign countries.
*It's not the first time I'll hear a foreigner (recently a Russian) who'd say they're masking more here in the city because there's just more people visibly masking anyway.
posted by cendawanita at 5:49 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
*It's not the first time I'll hear a foreigner (recently a Russian) who'd say they're masking more here in the city because there's just more people visibly masking anyway.
posted by cendawanita at 5:49 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
But a deportation operation targeting millions would require many more officers, detention beds and immigration court judges. American Immigration Council, an immigrant advocacy group, estimated the cost of deporting 13 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally as $968 billion over a little more than a decade.
Such an operation only needs those things if it's carried out in a manner consistent with any decency or humanity. A more likely model being prepared for implementation is something along the lines of driving around rounding up anyone speaking Spanish, driving them across the border, then pushing them out of the bus. You only need courts and other inconvenient mechanisms if you are going to allow people any form of natural justice.
I think the fascism that's emerged/emerging is bigger than the American political system. ... It's amplified by the biggest propaganda network the world's ever seen.
The propaganda network is really the issue here. It has allowed people to be precisely and individually targeted with messages that resonate with them personally and people are too stupid to see these messages as propaganda, but instead feel like someone is speaking to them personally. It's hard for the kind of people who frequent MeFi to understand just how malicious and pervasive these messages are because the algorithms that keep those malicious messages flooding toward people who accept them as truth keep people like us from seeing them in the first place. It's a kind of perfect storm where fascists can precisely target those willing to be persuaded that their lives will be better if we just give the billionaires more money and deport all the immigrants, but at the same time be invisible to anyone that would be in a position to provide a counter-argument. I'm still amazed when I hear about the alternative universe many people are living in through social media brainwashing.
Unfortunately, left-leaning parties across the world are persistent in their failure to recognise this or do anything about it. The consistent theme of 'taking the high road' is driving the world further and further to an acceptance of fascism as the preferable future and there's no way of stopping it but to take off the gloves and fight fire with fire. Fighting by Queensbury Rules is never going to win you a street brawl, because you'll just get kicked in the nuts and have your head stomped on.
posted by dg at 5:52 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]
Such an operation only needs those things if it's carried out in a manner consistent with any decency or humanity. A more likely model being prepared for implementation is something along the lines of driving around rounding up anyone speaking Spanish, driving them across the border, then pushing them out of the bus. You only need courts and other inconvenient mechanisms if you are going to allow people any form of natural justice.
I think the fascism that's emerged/emerging is bigger than the American political system. ... It's amplified by the biggest propaganda network the world's ever seen.
The propaganda network is really the issue here. It has allowed people to be precisely and individually targeted with messages that resonate with them personally and people are too stupid to see these messages as propaganda, but instead feel like someone is speaking to them personally. It's hard for the kind of people who frequent MeFi to understand just how malicious and pervasive these messages are because the algorithms that keep those malicious messages flooding toward people who accept them as truth keep people like us from seeing them in the first place. It's a kind of perfect storm where fascists can precisely target those willing to be persuaded that their lives will be better if we just give the billionaires more money and deport all the immigrants, but at the same time be invisible to anyone that would be in a position to provide a counter-argument. I'm still amazed when I hear about the alternative universe many people are living in through social media brainwashing.
Unfortunately, left-leaning parties across the world are persistent in their failure to recognise this or do anything about it. The consistent theme of 'taking the high road' is driving the world further and further to an acceptance of fascism as the preferable future and there's no way of stopping it but to take off the gloves and fight fire with fire. Fighting by Queensbury Rules is never going to win you a street brawl, because you'll just get kicked in the nuts and have your head stomped on.
posted by dg at 5:52 PM on November 7 [13 favorites]
I just really want third-party voters, abstainers, and similar people who poisoned the discourse or bought poisoned discourse to finally just S.T.F.U. for once, while the rest of us have to deal with the deadly catastrophe they have helped Trump voters cause for all of us.
I continue to be amazed at people managing to keep this discourse going after this election, which presents the least convincing case for “spoilers” mattering in years.
posted by atoxyl at 6:00 PM on November 7 [26 favorites]
I continue to be amazed at people managing to keep this discourse going after this election, which presents the least convincing case for “spoilers” mattering in years.
posted by atoxyl at 6:00 PM on November 7 [26 favorites]
(Which goes both ways, nobody is going to give a shit about your protest vote in charting the way forward for the Democrats, either, sorry)
posted by atoxyl at 6:03 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by atoxyl at 6:03 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
MetaFilter: There is a pea under my mattress.
posted by y2karl at 6:06 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 6:06 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
If you’re looking for Democrats willing to fight dirty and take the low road, take a look at Wisconsin. Despite the presidential vote going to Trump, Dems saved our Senate seat by 0.9 of a point. Strategies included funding a far-right gun nut involved with the plot to kidnap Gov. Whitmer as a third party candidate to siphon votes away from the bankrolled GOP candidate, which worked—he lost by fewer votes than the third party candidate gained. As a further siphoning effort, they also allegedly sent mailers listing the policy position of a libertarian candidate and saying he would “stand up for our conservative principles.” This pissed him off because while every policy position they listed was accurate, he “stands for libertarian principles, not conservative principles.”
WI Dems don’t play ball with hypocritical GOP calls for decorum and fairness.
posted by brook horse at 6:39 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]
WI Dems don’t play ball with hypocritical GOP calls for decorum and fairness.
posted by brook horse at 6:39 PM on November 7 [22 favorites]
I surrender. I am done. There is no point in being interested in politics, learning and thinking about issues, and trying to make logical and emotional arguments for Democrats when "did Biden drop out?" is a trending search topic right before the fucking election. Not enough people care. Not enough people will ever care. There's no fucking point. There are too many stupid people.* The Republicans want to dismantle the Department of Education and weaken eduction to keep their stupid people pipeline.
This time next year the Supreme Court is likely to be stacked with five people Trump appointed (or will be told to appoint). They'll all be there for longer than I (60) will be alive. Talk about organizing. Organizing for what? Trump said we wouldn't need elections after this. He can cancel elections or stack them in his favor and the Supreme Court, which has already made him a king, will go along.
I want to leave. I want to move to Belize, which I can do because they have a program for retirees and I have the resources. My wife doesn't want to leave because we have friends here and we want our gay daughter (12) to have a normal collect experience. Great, maybe they'll let us bunk with our friends in the gulag. Maybe Trumpland will be sunshine and rainbows for gay teenagers.
So fuck-a-doodle-doo. Nothing I say or think or do will change anything. I can't leave. So I'll get drunk and high and play Wolfenstein and pretend I live in a country that thinks Nazis are evil instead of being consciously ruled by them.
* I know people are hurting. I know Trump claims he will help them. He won't. So if they vote for him because they think they'll help, they're stupid.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:47 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]
This time next year the Supreme Court is likely to be stacked with five people Trump appointed (or will be told to appoint). They'll all be there for longer than I (60) will be alive. Talk about organizing. Organizing for what? Trump said we wouldn't need elections after this. He can cancel elections or stack them in his favor and the Supreme Court, which has already made him a king, will go along.
I want to leave. I want to move to Belize, which I can do because they have a program for retirees and I have the resources. My wife doesn't want to leave because we have friends here and we want our gay daughter (12) to have a normal collect experience. Great, maybe they'll let us bunk with our friends in the gulag. Maybe Trumpland will be sunshine and rainbows for gay teenagers.
So fuck-a-doodle-doo. Nothing I say or think or do will change anything. I can't leave. So I'll get drunk and high and play Wolfenstein and pretend I live in a country that thinks Nazis are evil instead of being consciously ruled by them.
* I know people are hurting. I know Trump claims he will help them. He won't. So if they vote for him because they think they'll help, they're stupid.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:47 PM on November 7 [24 favorites]
*stands up in kiddie pool and steps out*
i'm sick of playing lifeboat - someone keeps pissing in the water
i mean really, are some people so dense that they can't figure out that something like 10 million people just didn't show up this year and you can't blame it on gaza, third-party voters, progressives, all the usual suspects?
in fact, i'm not even sure i'd place blame on harris and her campaign
i blame the american people, who are getting more gullible and stupid by the year - a little over 70 million believe a venal half-brain-dead old fart can bring amerikkka back and even fewer could bother to show up and vote against him
the vast majority of the populace are nihilists or apathetic dunces and it will take a catastrophe to wake some of them up
posted by pyramid termite at 7:08 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]
i'm sick of playing lifeboat - someone keeps pissing in the water
i mean really, are some people so dense that they can't figure out that something like 10 million people just didn't show up this year and you can't blame it on gaza, third-party voters, progressives, all the usual suspects?
in fact, i'm not even sure i'd place blame on harris and her campaign
i blame the american people, who are getting more gullible and stupid by the year - a little over 70 million believe a venal half-brain-dead old fart can bring amerikkka back and even fewer could bother to show up and vote against him
the vast majority of the populace are nihilists or apathetic dunces and it will take a catastrophe to wake some of them up
posted by pyramid termite at 7:08 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]
I just sorta took the 2001 - 2004 years as the eye of the hurricane, yaknow.
One SCOTUS appointment, the big infrastructure bill, and extension/expansion of BEV and solar tax credits, more IRS funding . . . that was about it. No radical tax cuts or rises.
wonder what the back end of the storm is going to bring. Flat tax? SSA "grandfathered" for age 55+ (what the Bushies tried). The GOP now has 2+ years to run their playbook.
posted by torokunai at 7:14 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
One SCOTUS appointment, the big infrastructure bill, and extension/expansion of BEV and solar tax credits, more IRS funding . . . that was about it. No radical tax cuts or rises.
wonder what the back end of the storm is going to bring. Flat tax? SSA "grandfathered" for age 55+ (what the Bushies tried). The GOP now has 2+ years to run their playbook.
posted by torokunai at 7:14 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
>vast majority of the populace are nihilists
I wouldn't go that far. 2016 broke by what, 35,000 swing votes?
Harris is 44 EVs away as a I write this . . .PA, WI, and MI's EVs, which again Trump is carrying with 50% of the ballots.
We know ~25% of the national vote is christian fundamentalists who have found their vehicle. Doesn't take much more from that base to hit the magic 50%.
posted by torokunai at 7:20 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I wouldn't go that far. 2016 broke by what, 35,000 swing votes?
Harris is 44 EVs away as a I write this . . .PA, WI, and MI's EVs, which again Trump is carrying with 50% of the ballots.
We know ~25% of the national vote is christian fundamentalists who have found their vehicle. Doesn't take much more from that base to hit the magic 50%.
posted by torokunai at 7:20 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
There is no point in being interested in politics, learning and thinking about issues, and trying to make logical and emotional arguments for Democrats when "did Biden drop out?" is a trending search topic right before the fucking election. Not enough people care. Not enough people will ever care. There's no fucking point.
One must imagine Sisyphus happy.
posted by flabdablet at 7:22 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
One must imagine Sisyphus happy.
posted by flabdablet at 7:22 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Saw this Andy Kim thread (Threadreader) (for New Jersey)
Across the board the conversations began with expressions of what I can only describe as deep disgust in politics. Severe distrust in politicians and the status quo. And this wasn’t about the specifics of the moment, but instead deep seated long-term dissatisfaction. 2/12
Even after 4 yrs in office, Trump wasn’t seen as the status quo or as a “politician.” There was a clear belief that Trump was different. Some raised real concerns about Trump’s policies and personality, but those concerns didn’t override their disgust for politics. 3/12
The perception that he was different and also taking on the status quo boosted him. In other words, the deep existing distrust in politics and governance gave oxygen to Trump’s strength. 4/12
But for these voters, they also saw me as “different.” What stood out to me is that their comments presented an opening for a different way to be different. Trump’s playbook isn’t the only way. 5/12
For instance the 2020 crossover voters resonated with my heavy focus on reform and taking on corruption. They liked that I don’t accept corporate PAC funding as they see special interests as a major corrupting force in politics that drowns out the voice of regular people. 6/12
posted by cendawanita at 7:25 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Across the board the conversations began with expressions of what I can only describe as deep disgust in politics. Severe distrust in politicians and the status quo. And this wasn’t about the specifics of the moment, but instead deep seated long-term dissatisfaction. 2/12
Even after 4 yrs in office, Trump wasn’t seen as the status quo or as a “politician.” There was a clear belief that Trump was different. Some raised real concerns about Trump’s policies and personality, but those concerns didn’t override their disgust for politics. 3/12
The perception that he was different and also taking on the status quo boosted him. In other words, the deep existing distrust in politics and governance gave oxygen to Trump’s strength. 4/12
But for these voters, they also saw me as “different.” What stood out to me is that their comments presented an opening for a different way to be different. Trump’s playbook isn’t the only way. 5/12
For instance the 2020 crossover voters resonated with my heavy focus on reform and taking on corruption. They liked that I don’t accept corporate PAC funding as they see special interests as a major corrupting force in politics that drowns out the voice of regular people. 6/12
posted by cendawanita at 7:25 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
Chicago Tribune: Latino community in Chicago divided by Trump
For Lopez, a longtime Pilsen native, the economy and immigration were a factor for voting Republican. Like Barajas, he doesn’t fear mass deportation. Instead, he believes that the incoming administration will take into consideration those without documentation who “came here to work and who have been here for a long time.”posted by BungaDunga at 7:58 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
“It’s not fair what Democrats did,” he said, referring to the public aid that some new arrivals got in Chicago and other U.S. cities, including food stamps and rent assistance. “Many of us may have come illegally, but we came here to work, not to ask for anything.”
That sentiment, strongly contradicted by pro-immigrant leaders in the city, is echoed by Elena Ruiz, a street vendor lacking permanent legal status who was selling donuts outside grocery stores in the Pilsen area.
Ruiz said that even though she couldn’t vote, she encouraged those who could to vote for Trump. And when she learned that he had won, she immediately called her family in Mexico to let them know.
“I was extremely happy that Trump won,” she said in Spanish. “I’m not scared. We have been working here for decades, if they wanted to deport us, they would have done it a long time ago.”
Wow. Wow. Do you think those people are outliers being quoted for clicks? Or being quoted so as to blame people for their own deportation? It is so hard to believe that anyone with their ear to the ground could believe that.
Back before the pandemic I did court observation at immigration court. Almost everyone who was being deported - in a relatively low-intensity state - had been here a long time, was law-abiding, worked, had kids or parents living here, etc. It was horrible.
~~
And again, this is what I mean when I say that many of these Trump voters (and supporters) aren't evil, they're just misled. They believe things that cannot possibly be true. They're like people who didn't understand that Brexit would not in fact pay millions of pounds every day to the NHS because they didn't have the information or the reasoning skills to understand that this simply could not be. It's disappointing and scary - and tragic, above all tragic - but it's not monstrous.
posted by Frowner at 8:07 PM on November 7 [25 favorites]
Back before the pandemic I did court observation at immigration court. Almost everyone who was being deported - in a relatively low-intensity state - had been here a long time, was law-abiding, worked, had kids or parents living here, etc. It was horrible.
~~
And again, this is what I mean when I say that many of these Trump voters (and supporters) aren't evil, they're just misled. They believe things that cannot possibly be true. They're like people who didn't understand that Brexit would not in fact pay millions of pounds every day to the NHS because they didn't have the information or the reasoning skills to understand that this simply could not be. It's disappointing and scary - and tragic, above all tragic - but it's not monstrous.
posted by Frowner at 8:07 PM on November 7 [25 favorites]
If anyone wants to talk about disgust, I'll tell you what disgusts me and why I'm just about ready to give in to the accelerationists I have so vehemently disagreed with for so long.
A majority of voters decided to endorse an insurrection and attempted coup. Not even immediately, but after having almost four years to reflect on it, they decided the best response to that is to elect the motherfucker behind it. They wrap themselves in the flag, but are really just using it as a diaper. They have no interest in the rule of law or anything beyond themselves. Guess what, fuckers, I can be just as petty.
I'll be over here laughing as shit falls down around our ears, as half my neighbors get deported, as the dimwits who decided their mostly unfounded financial worries and self-inflicted financial wounds are more important than their country and decided to elect the kind of fascists that their fathers and grandfathers fought and died to beat back get their shit pushed in by Trump's idiotic tariffs and the gutting of the federal budget.
See, friends, I have the distinct advantage of not giving a shit. I can live like the rich, I can live with a house full of shit I pulled from the dumpster. It makes no goddamn difference to me. I don't care about my social status. The one thing I got from my dad was his sensible attitude toward people. He didn't like people and neither do I. So enjoy the leopards. I know I will. And then, one day, it will be my turn. But even then, the joke's still on you. I made peace with my eventual demise three quarters of a life ago. I've had fun, I've seen misery. I've loved, I've lost. I've seen enough of the world to be satisfied. I'm ready.
So yeah, bring it on. Maybe whoever is left, assuming anyone is left after the christofascists inevitably get the Armageddon that brings them to orgasm and leaves their crotch wet with spooge every Sunday in church, can build something better. And yes, they're likely to get it given that Israel and Iran have finally resorted to directly attacking each other. Bring a towel, because it ain't gonna be pretty.
Anyway, with that off my chest, I'll go back to pretending that the second Trump term won't really be any worse than the first. I have that luxury. Too bad more people don't.
posted by wierdo at 8:08 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]
A majority of voters decided to endorse an insurrection and attempted coup. Not even immediately, but after having almost four years to reflect on it, they decided the best response to that is to elect the motherfucker behind it. They wrap themselves in the flag, but are really just using it as a diaper. They have no interest in the rule of law or anything beyond themselves. Guess what, fuckers, I can be just as petty.
I'll be over here laughing as shit falls down around our ears, as half my neighbors get deported, as the dimwits who decided their mostly unfounded financial worries and self-inflicted financial wounds are more important than their country and decided to elect the kind of fascists that their fathers and grandfathers fought and died to beat back get their shit pushed in by Trump's idiotic tariffs and the gutting of the federal budget.
See, friends, I have the distinct advantage of not giving a shit. I can live like the rich, I can live with a house full of shit I pulled from the dumpster. It makes no goddamn difference to me. I don't care about my social status. The one thing I got from my dad was his sensible attitude toward people. He didn't like people and neither do I. So enjoy the leopards. I know I will. And then, one day, it will be my turn. But even then, the joke's still on you. I made peace with my eventual demise three quarters of a life ago. I've had fun, I've seen misery. I've loved, I've lost. I've seen enough of the world to be satisfied. I'm ready.
So yeah, bring it on. Maybe whoever is left, assuming anyone is left after the christofascists inevitably get the Armageddon that brings them to orgasm and leaves their crotch wet with spooge every Sunday in church, can build something better. And yes, they're likely to get it given that Israel and Iran have finally resorted to directly attacking each other. Bring a towel, because it ain't gonna be pretty.
Anyway, with that off my chest, I'll go back to pretending that the second Trump term won't really be any worse than the first. I have that luxury. Too bad more people don't.
posted by wierdo at 8:08 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]
something like 10 million people just didn't show up this year and you can't blame it on gaza
Ten million is 3% of the population. One in thirty. That sounds about right to me as a proportion that could plausibly have been both paying attention to genocide and sickened enough by both parties' ironclad commitment to it to conclude that voting is pointless.
People forget just how close the 2020 result was and just how anomalous the high Dem turnout.
posted by flabdablet at 8:12 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Ten million is 3% of the population. One in thirty. That sounds about right to me as a proportion that could plausibly have been both paying attention to genocide and sickened enough by both parties' ironclad commitment to it to conclude that voting is pointless.
People forget just how close the 2020 result was and just how anomalous the high Dem turnout.
posted by flabdablet at 8:12 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Wow. Do you think those people are outliers being quoted for clicks? Or being quoted so as to blame people for their own deportation? It is so hard to believe that anyone with their ear to the ground could believe that.
At least here in the South Florida bubble that kind of thinking is pervasive. I have heard of and spoken to many Trump voters who literally have undocumented family members living in their own fucking house. Just like the only moral abortion is my abortion, the only moral illegal immigration is my family's illegal immigration. They seem to think that their giant Trump flags mean they aren't going to get the shit end of the stick. Never mind that it's already a felony here in Florida to provide material assistance to people who are unlawfully present in the US. Never mind that Stephen Miller has been quite open about his plan for "denaturalization," starting with anyone who has committed a crime. As in, kiss that citizenship goodbye because you're harboring "an illegal," as he puts it.
posted by wierdo at 8:15 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
At least here in the South Florida bubble that kind of thinking is pervasive. I have heard of and spoken to many Trump voters who literally have undocumented family members living in their own fucking house. Just like the only moral abortion is my abortion, the only moral illegal immigration is my family's illegal immigration. They seem to think that their giant Trump flags mean they aren't going to get the shit end of the stick. Never mind that it's already a felony here in Florida to provide material assistance to people who are unlawfully present in the US. Never mind that Stephen Miller has been quite open about his plan for "denaturalization," starting with anyone who has committed a crime. As in, kiss that citizenship goodbye because you're harboring "an illegal," as he puts it.
posted by wierdo at 8:15 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
aren't evil, they're just misled. They believe things that cannot possibly be true.
some people, sure, but some people want to be scammed. they want to believe this stuff. are they also being misled? well, yes. but some are actively choosing to not think too much about it because it's attractive to them. at a certain point people are still responsible for choosing this.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:15 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
some people, sure, but some people want to be scammed. they want to believe this stuff. are they also being misled? well, yes. but some are actively choosing to not think too much about it because it's attractive to them. at a certain point people are still responsible for choosing this.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:15 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
Lots of people also understand that you don't need to outrun the leopard as long as you can outrun your neighbour.
Where I think they've gone wrong is in miscalculating the number of leopards.
posted by flabdablet at 8:19 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]
Where I think they've gone wrong is in miscalculating the number of leopards.
posted by flabdablet at 8:19 PM on November 7 [16 favorites]
So yeah, bring it on
you cannot kill me in a way that matters
posted by flabdablet at 8:35 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
you cannot kill me in a way that matters
posted by flabdablet at 8:35 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
>and tragic, above all tragic
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."
posted by torokunai at 8:37 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."
posted by torokunai at 8:37 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]
Lemme just jump in here real quick to head off the customary derail about stupidity vs IQ. Stupidity is a moral defect, not an intellectual one.
posted by flabdablet at 8:41 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 8:41 PM on November 7 [9 favorites]
To me that sounds like an achingly naïve faith that the primary foundation of Trump's movement is a belief in the moral value of hard work.
posted by clawsoon at 8:46 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 8:46 PM on November 7 [4 favorites]
It wouldn't have mattered this year (at least by the numbers so far) But I really wish we could shitcan the electoral college. We despair about turnout when people in 43 states were told that their vote wouldn't matter.
posted by getawaysticks at 8:51 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
posted by getawaysticks at 8:51 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
like Ecclesiastes 3:1-8.
I mean, how many seasons do we got left.
as opposed to reusing tin foil.
posted by clavdivs at 8:53 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
I mean, how many seasons do we got left.
as opposed to reusing tin foil.
posted by clavdivs at 8:53 PM on November 7 [1 favorite]
Trump's movement is a belief in the moral value of hard work.
I have to agree as this would dispute the immutable law of capitalism where the worker does the hard work, someone else gains the profits and when those profits are low that person will blame the worker.
posted by clavdivs at 8:57 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]
I have to agree as this would dispute the immutable law of capitalism where the worker does the hard work, someone else gains the profits and when those profits are low that person will blame the worker.
posted by clavdivs at 8:57 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]
Reuse tinfoil? Are you mad? All the crinkled bits are just crawling with captured 5G spores.
posted by flabdablet at 8:58 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 8:58 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
an achingly naïve faith that the primary foundation of Trump's movement is a belief in the moral value of hard work
Seems to me that an achingly naïve faith in the moral value of hard work is a widespread belief amongst the MAGA base, for what that's worth. It's the hook that the FELs can hang all that outsized resentment against welfare cheats on.
posted by flabdablet at 9:05 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
Seems to me that an achingly naïve faith in the moral value of hard work is a widespread belief amongst the MAGA base, for what that's worth. It's the hook that the FELs can hang all that outsized resentment against welfare cheats on.
posted by flabdablet at 9:05 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
no no, that's just an unpublished campaign slogan for the Republican party, reality, if you cheat on the welfare system you could go to prison.
I have always questioned my grandmother's reuse of tin foil, how she would remove an article from the oven and put in sheets to kill the bacteria which I question scientifically though I'm not a scientist but she did live to be 103.
posted by clavdivs at 9:39 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
I have always questioned my grandmother's reuse of tin foil, how she would remove an article from the oven and put in sheets to kill the bacteria which I question scientifically though I'm not a scientist but she did live to be 103.
posted by clavdivs at 9:39 PM on November 7 [3 favorites]
I have to agree as this would dispute the immutable law of capitalism where the worker does the hard work, someone else gains the profits and when those profits are low that person will blame the worker.
clavvo and flabbo one after the other.
Some of my favourite mefites of all time.
gman is so sorely missed. Absolute mensch and grief is deep.
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:43 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]
clavvo and flabbo one after the other.
Some of my favourite mefites of all time.
gman is so sorely missed. Absolute mensch and grief is deep.
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:43 PM on November 7 [5 favorites]
”I was extremely happy that Trump won,” she said in Spanish. “I’m not scared. We have been working here for decades, if they wanted to deport us, they would have done it a long time ago.”
Would be a hell of a thing if they were right somehow. Trump could fix a lot of things in this country by saying he’s going to do stuff and then not doing it. Sometimes I’m not sure he even cares about doing it. Unfortunately I’m pretty sure the people he brings on board really do.
posted by atoxyl at 9:56 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
Would be a hell of a thing if they were right somehow. Trump could fix a lot of things in this country by saying he’s going to do stuff and then not doing it. Sometimes I’m not sure he even cares about doing it. Unfortunately I’m pretty sure the people he brings on board really do.
posted by atoxyl at 9:56 PM on November 7 [8 favorites]
Our claim on our huge rare earth minerals is going to be grifted away from us, and we are going to pay the USA to make sure they get the extractions instead of China.
That's OK. We can rely on CSIRO and UNSW researchers to devise world-leading technologies that replace rare earths with iron ore, wool and chewing gum. Which we can then sell to...
ah. I see your point.
We're going to end up with a run on chewing gum the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Great Toilet Paper Fiasco of 2020.
posted by flabdablet at 10:37 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
That's OK. We can rely on CSIRO and UNSW researchers to devise world-leading technologies that replace rare earths with iron ore, wool and chewing gum. Which we can then sell to...
ah. I see your point.
We're going to end up with a run on chewing gum the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Great Toilet Paper Fiasco of 2020.
posted by flabdablet at 10:37 PM on November 7 [2 favorites]
Ube, jebus, my back is still sore from the judo flips of 2011. hope you know I love flabdablet, makes a lot of sense consistently which I try to uncoil waving butterfly fans and traversing a floor filled with rubber bushings. that is ironic because a moment ago, I was thinking about preceptions of America, not so much why do so many people want to come here to live or learn, the question for a different day but I always go back to an incident in 1996 and it happened to ironically involve an Australian, one of the few I've ever met. I was working at a garage and a guy came in asking for a tow, I recognized the Australian accent nonetheles, he was a doctor at the hospital 1.3 miles down, his car had a flat tyre and he had a nice car it was a Mercedes convertible S series I think. anyways I told him I'd get a wrecker to him, " you wanna wait" but it'd be 45 minutes and he insisted that he'd go back and change the tyre, drive it up to have it repaired or replaced. I told him I couldn't get him a Mercedes tyre on a Sunday. couldn't speed that service up. but he insisted, he had that look like I can do this, lazy American, I've no doubt that he could and he seem to be unfazed that his car happened to be in the one of the most violent neighborhoods in America. anyways, I confess to him that I didn't want him to change the tire and he became a little agitated and I just held out my hands and said these hands are expendable, yours aren't. right mate, it's just a tire, I've changed a lot.
I have no doubt that he could, I just didn't want him to get robbed, so I went around the counter to the radio and asked my driver if he was in route he was and I detoted him to the Mercedes and I look up because I hear keys jangling, he's got this big big smile but I just looked at him and I shook my head, what do you mean, you can't?. I said, I don't need your keys. 2 minutes pass he seems rather miffed. 30 seconds later,over the radio, my driver says,is it a red Mercedes. yep grab it.
he was back on the road in 23 and 1/2 minutes.
I suppose the lesson is is that when you come to America, try not to give a hassle and listen to those who are trying to help.
I suppose this is good advice for anyone, anywhere.
dude tipped me 20 bucks.
for that Sunday afternoon, for an hour, all seemed right in the world.
I'm beginning to feel most Americans are losing that sentiment.
posted by clavdivs at 10:48 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
I have no doubt that he could, I just didn't want him to get robbed, so I went around the counter to the radio and asked my driver if he was in route he was and I detoted him to the Mercedes and I look up because I hear keys jangling, he's got this big big smile but I just looked at him and I shook my head, what do you mean, you can't?. I said, I don't need your keys. 2 minutes pass he seems rather miffed. 30 seconds later,over the radio, my driver says,is it a red Mercedes. yep grab it.
he was back on the road in 23 and 1/2 minutes.
I suppose the lesson is is that when you come to America, try not to give a hassle and listen to those who are trying to help.
I suppose this is good advice for anyone, anywhere.
dude tipped me 20 bucks.
for that Sunday afternoon, for an hour, all seemed right in the world.
I'm beginning to feel most Americans are losing that sentiment.
posted by clavdivs at 10:48 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Hey where did Bernie say that the dems should abandon identity politics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/politics/democrats-kamala-harris.html
“It’s not just Kamala,” he said. “It’s a Democratic Party which increasingly has become a party of identity politics, rather than understanding that the vast majority of people in this country are working class. This trend of workers leaving the Democratic Party started with whites, and it has accelerated to Latinos and Blacks.”
So Sanders never actually literally said that. He is suggesting that the Party is increasingly becoming a single-issue/lens party which is incredibly problematic. He doesn't say to abandon it at all. And if you actually watch one or two Sanders' talks (there's an old video being circulated today) he actually provides cogent explanation for why identity politics is problematized—by the right wingers .
There's a lot of inter-left-wing disagreement but let's at least listen carefully to what people said, with nuance, and take the time to learn the context in which they are saying things. That takes work, like homework work.
posted by polymodus at 11:03 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/politics/democrats-kamala-harris.html
“It’s not just Kamala,” he said. “It’s a Democratic Party which increasingly has become a party of identity politics, rather than understanding that the vast majority of people in this country are working class. This trend of workers leaving the Democratic Party started with whites, and it has accelerated to Latinos and Blacks.”
So Sanders never actually literally said that. He is suggesting that the Party is increasingly becoming a single-issue/lens party which is incredibly problematic. He doesn't say to abandon it at all. And if you actually watch one or two Sanders' talks (there's an old video being circulated today) he actually provides cogent explanation for why identity politics is problematized—by the right wingers .
There's a lot of inter-left-wing disagreement but let's at least listen carefully to what people said, with nuance, and take the time to learn the context in which they are saying things. That takes work, like homework work.
posted by polymodus at 11:03 PM on November 7 [12 favorites]
Let's not forget that when Harris was actually given a chance to defend gender-affirming healthcare, she gave some sort of weaselly answer about following the law. Man, fuck her and fuck the rest of them, I'm with Bernie.
posted by ftrtts at 11:33 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
posted by ftrtts at 11:33 PM on November 7 [6 favorites]
Based on the reporting, all the issues raise on the blue, from Gaza to LGBTQ+ to Bernie Socialism didn't matter. It's just that at least 60+% of people just aren't interested, and go it's bad under Team A, I'll vote for Team B / I'll stay at home because why not.
Even if a whopping 40% of humans are empathetic and concerned with the details, when the richest 1% put their thumbs on the scale for long enough, they can convince enough people that what they are voting for isn't either true or against their interests.
And it seems to take less than 80 years for lessons to be forgotten.
posted by Marticus at 11:50 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]
Even if a whopping 40% of humans are empathetic and concerned with the details, when the richest 1% put their thumbs on the scale for long enough, they can convince enough people that what they are voting for isn't either true or against their interests.
And it seems to take less than 80 years for lessons to be forgotten.
posted by Marticus at 11:50 PM on November 7 [14 favorites]
And it seems to take less than 80 years for lessons to be forgotten.
posted by Marticus
No coincidence that is about the lifespan of lived memory.
posted by Pouteria at 11:55 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
posted by Marticus
No coincidence that is about the lifespan of lived memory.
posted by Pouteria at 11:55 PM on November 7 [7 favorites]
I just really want third-party voters, abstainers, and similar people
Once again, this is the one election you cannot villainize those groups for because it is an absolute walloping of core Democratic constituencies weakening, outright flipping. You seek to hate on marginal groups but you’re really hating on large wodges of people who previously delivered Biden’s victory in 2020.
the vast majority of the populace are nihilists or apathetic dunces and it will take a catastrophe to wake some of them up
We just had one four years ago and, uh,
Where I think they've gone wrong is in miscalculating the number of leopards.
I mean, are they? The thing about a massively clunky and sclerotic government is that if we can’t even keep our bridges from collapsing or ensuring our astronauts have a ride home, it becomes easy to imagine that mass deportation is as much of a fantasy as high speed rail in California. Sure, you can point at what happened in 1954, which took place in a vastly different country with a different population size, not to mention demographics.
Unfortunately I’m pretty sure the people he brings on board really do.
On one hand, he chews through underlings and spits them out really quickly. On the other, Stephen Miller is still around, and he’s the real arch-border hawk of all border hawks.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:59 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
Once again, this is the one election you cannot villainize those groups for because it is an absolute walloping of core Democratic constituencies weakening, outright flipping. You seek to hate on marginal groups but you’re really hating on large wodges of people who previously delivered Biden’s victory in 2020.
the vast majority of the populace are nihilists or apathetic dunces and it will take a catastrophe to wake some of them up
We just had one four years ago and, uh,
Where I think they've gone wrong is in miscalculating the number of leopards.
I mean, are they? The thing about a massively clunky and sclerotic government is that if we can’t even keep our bridges from collapsing or ensuring our astronauts have a ride home, it becomes easy to imagine that mass deportation is as much of a fantasy as high speed rail in California. Sure, you can point at what happened in 1954, which took place in a vastly different country with a different population size, not to mention demographics.
Unfortunately I’m pretty sure the people he brings on board really do.
On one hand, he chews through underlings and spits them out really quickly. On the other, Stephen Miller is still around, and he’s the real arch-border hawk of all border hawks.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:59 PM on November 7 [11 favorites]
Based on the reporting, all the issues raise on the blue, from Gaza to LGBTQ+ to Bernie Socialism didn't matter. It's just that at least 60+% of people just aren't interested
This is mistaken in at least two ways:
1. Harris did not run a campaign that substantially addressed any of those issues. She ran a campaign where her platform was, "we're better than Trump and you only have two choices." It turns out that wasn't enough.
2. Some things matter even if they don't win elections.
The Hard Times: DNC Announces Plans to Learn Nothing from This
posted by ftrtts at 12:27 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]
This is mistaken in at least two ways:
1. Harris did not run a campaign that substantially addressed any of those issues. She ran a campaign where her platform was, "we're better than Trump and you only have two choices." It turns out that wasn't enough.
2. Some things matter even if they don't win elections.
The Hard Times: DNC Announces Plans to Learn Nothing from This
posted by ftrtts at 12:27 AM on November 8 [16 favorites]
Read the Chicago Tribune piece upthread. My question is, why didn't hear about any of this before the election? Would've been helpful. I mean, yeah, polling has been broken for a few cycles now, but surely someone would've paid attention to unexpected sentiments within communities that you would think would be the ones who most detest Trump or have the most to lose from him? Some contra-conventional wisdom pieces? Maybe inflation and housing prices really made people mad?
I think the Teamsters refusing to endorse a candidate even after the Biden administration's attempts to win over labor probably been a significant warning sign. Union rank-and-file being bullish on Trump. Maybe it's a return of the hard hats?
And to be quite frank, it's also quite possible that eight years of relentless coverage of Trump has made a lot of people, well, numb and desensitized to it. And to a lot of people not plugged into the algorithmic/op-ed bubbles, it starts to sound like crying wolf after a while.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:35 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
I think the Teamsters refusing to endorse a candidate even after the Biden administration's attempts to win over labor probably been a significant warning sign. Union rank-and-file being bullish on Trump. Maybe it's a return of the hard hats?
And to be quite frank, it's also quite possible that eight years of relentless coverage of Trump has made a lot of people, well, numb and desensitized to it. And to a lot of people not plugged into the algorithmic/op-ed bubbles, it starts to sound like crying wolf after a while.
For some naturalized citizens in Chicago, children of immigrants and even some people in the U.S. illegally, the promise of a better economy and stronger border security outweighs the threat of mass deportation and stricter immigration policies. Many said they shifted to the right because they felt left out and betrayed by the Democratic candidates after recent migrants received financial support and work permits but longtime undocumented immigrants were seemingly forgotten.Ah, and of course the crabs in a bucket mentality is universal, even to those in marginalized communities. But maybe that mentality could be defeated if people are doing well enough to not feel envious towards others who are getting helped? So there's a failure to articulate what the Biden administration had achieved, the wonkery that staved off inflation, and a lack of messaging from the Harris campaign about how they were going to make things even better.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:35 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Twitter thread about how the story in the swing states was tons of new voters for Trump. This is contra the national narrative I've seen about how Trump stayed the same but Harris lost tons of votes.
His language is pretty spinny so I wrote down the raw numbers for the states that are 99%+ done counting. Harris was up and down, and would have carried some or not vs 2020 Trump, but the real story seems to be that Trump just gained a whole bunch of votes in all of those states.
posted by fleacircus at 1:23 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
His language is pretty spinny so I wrote down the raw numbers for the states that are 99%+ done counting. Harris was up and down, and would have carried some or not vs 2020 Trump, but the real story seems to be that Trump just gained a whole bunch of votes in all of those states.
posted by fleacircus at 1:23 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
.
posted by andreaazure at 3:27 AM on November 8
posted by andreaazure at 3:27 AM on November 8
Dust off your Centerfield LP.
Vance can't dance, but he'll steal your money. Watch him or he'll rob you blind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:43 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
Vance can't dance, but he'll steal your money. Watch him or he'll rob you blind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:43 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
Let's not forget that when Harris was actually given a chance to defend gender-affirming healthcare, she gave some sort of weaselly answer about following the law. Man, fuck her and fuck the rest of them, I'm with Bernie..
Nah, I watched that and it was obvious what Brett and Fox News was trying for, and her answer was solid and proper. And be salty all you want but I’m not going to disrepect her like tha. Lotta people comin outta the woodwork to say some wild things. Man Mefi what happened to you.
posted by cashman at 4:09 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]
Nah, I watched that and it was obvious what Brett and Fox News was trying for, and her answer was solid and proper. And be salty all you want but I’m not going to disrepect her like tha. Lotta people comin outta the woodwork to say some wild things. Man Mefi what happened to you.
posted by cashman at 4:09 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]
what happened to you
Woke up to find Ill Douche elected president again in absurd defiance of all reason and what used to be common sense. Bit of a shock to the system.
posted by flabdablet at 5:15 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
Woke up to find Ill Douche elected president again in absurd defiance of all reason and what used to be common sense. Bit of a shock to the system.
posted by flabdablet at 5:15 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
> if they wanted to deport us, they would have done it a long time ago.
Reminds me of that fortune cookie I got, "Confidence of success is almost success."
posted by Rat Spatula at 5:35 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
Reminds me of that fortune cookie I got, "Confidence of success is almost success."
posted by Rat Spatula at 5:35 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
What we actually need is the fortune cookie I always get, "This insert has a protective coating."
posted by flabdablet at 6:02 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 6:02 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
> So Sanders never actually literally said that. He is suggesting that the Party is increasingly becoming a single-issue/lens party which is incredibly problematic. He doesn't say to abandon it at all. And if you actually watch one or two Sanders' talks (there's an old video being circulated today) he actually provides cogent explanation for why identity politics is problematized—by the right wingers .
There's a lot of inter-left-wing disagreement but let's at least listen carefully to what people said, with nuance, and take the time to learn the context in which they are saying things. That takes work, like homework work.
Please take this condescending lecture somewhere else. The distinction between focusing less on identity politics and abandoning identity politics is academic when even a mild retreat from solidarity with marginalized groups means those people lose their human rights. Sanders is doing the same fucking thing he's always done -- diminish the importance of social issues by labeling them as a distraction from class issues.
No, he does not propose never doing anything for marginalized people -- but he is clearly jumping in the day after a historic loss in a context where many others *are* suggesting they be completely abandoned to suggest that social issues should take a back seat. He could have instead noted the historic anti-incumbent backlash around the world and promised to be part of a coalition to take advantage of that anti-incumbent backlash this time around. Instead, he's picking the same old "no war but class war" fights he always has.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:07 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]
There's a lot of inter-left-wing disagreement but let's at least listen carefully to what people said, with nuance, and take the time to learn the context in which they are saying things. That takes work, like homework work.
Please take this condescending lecture somewhere else. The distinction between focusing less on identity politics and abandoning identity politics is academic when even a mild retreat from solidarity with marginalized groups means those people lose their human rights. Sanders is doing the same fucking thing he's always done -- diminish the importance of social issues by labeling them as a distraction from class issues.
No, he does not propose never doing anything for marginalized people -- but he is clearly jumping in the day after a historic loss in a context where many others *are* suggesting they be completely abandoned to suggest that social issues should take a back seat. He could have instead noted the historic anti-incumbent backlash around the world and promised to be part of a coalition to take advantage of that anti-incumbent backlash this time around. Instead, he's picking the same old "no war but class war" fights he always has.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:07 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]
> Kimmel on "the [cohort] that knows nothing of the politics of where they already live."
john oliver's timely reminder the grift is in from the always-be-griftin' grifter in chief
seth meyers's look back to the past as prologue (+relentless mockery)
which, btw, AOC's post mortem from the other thread assesses the lay of the land and how to move forward... with the house still on a knife edge.
posted by kliuless at 6:39 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
john oliver's timely reminder the grift is in from the always-be-griftin' grifter in chief
seth meyers's look back to the past as prologue (+relentless mockery)
which, btw, AOC's post mortem from the other thread assesses the lay of the land and how to move forward... with the house still on a knife edge.
posted by kliuless at 6:39 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Yeah, AOC's message is, as one might expect, much more what the Democrats need more of right now.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:43 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 6:43 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
Nah, I watched that and it was obvious what Brett and Fox News was trying for, and her answer was solid and proper. And be salty all you want but I’m not going to disrepect her like tha.
Oh, I saw it too. Nobody expects a presidential candidate to say ACAB, but her response was to say that Trump supported gender-affirming care during his presidency by following the law. It's the kind of incoherent response we're used to hearing from Matthew Miller.
(There is a similarly weaselly, lesser-of-two-evils Labour party running the UK that quietly extended its ban on puberty blockers yesterday.)
The distinction between focusing less on identity politics and abandoning identity politics is academic when even a mild retreat from solidarity with marginalized groups means those people lose their human rights.
When the Democratic party says solidarity, they promise representation and economic prosperity, paid for by defense industry profits. The genocide of Palestinians is the cost of doing business. That's their vision of the future. It's a fear-based politics.
Sanders' statement rejects that offer in no uncertain terms. It speaks to the Latino and Black working class. It condemns the party for accepting corporate profits and supporting the genocide.
I'm not saying Bernie is perfect but I know what kind of solidarity I want.
posted by ftrtts at 6:59 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
Oh, I saw it too. Nobody expects a presidential candidate to say ACAB, but her response was to say that Trump supported gender-affirming care during his presidency by following the law. It's the kind of incoherent response we're used to hearing from Matthew Miller.
(There is a similarly weaselly, lesser-of-two-evils Labour party running the UK that quietly extended its ban on puberty blockers yesterday.)
The distinction between focusing less on identity politics and abandoning identity politics is academic when even a mild retreat from solidarity with marginalized groups means those people lose their human rights.
When the Democratic party says solidarity, they promise representation and economic prosperity, paid for by defense industry profits. The genocide of Palestinians is the cost of doing business. That's their vision of the future. It's a fear-based politics.
Sanders' statement rejects that offer in no uncertain terms. It speaks to the Latino and Black working class. It condemns the party for accepting corporate profits and supporting the genocide.
I'm not saying Bernie is perfect but I know what kind of solidarity I want.
posted by ftrtts at 6:59 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
> I'm not saying Bernie is perfect but I know what kind of solidarity I want.
I have no idea how believing people in Gaza should not be slaughtered requires focusing less on so-called identity politics. It doesn't have to be either/or.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:15 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
I have no idea how believing people in Gaza should not be slaughtered requires focusing less on so-called identity politics. It doesn't have to be either/or.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:15 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
In earnest, it really must be a matter of informed voters.
I can understand how someone could Just-World themselves into thinking, "I'm a hard-working one, they won't deport me."
But this time around, "they", the people who want the deportation, want it because the immigrants are hard workers - the ostensible reason is to protect jobs for citizens, right? Which will happen because:
1. We'll send the immigrants away, never to return.
2. Employers are forced to raise wages, to access the now-smaller labor pool.
3. That's it, I guess?
But the point remains - if she thinks they won't deport her, is that because she has not heard, or doesn't believe, what "they"-elect claim as their motivation.
I guess "Oh, that (labor pool argument) is just a fig leaf for racism, They always gonna They?"
posted by Rat Spatula at 7:24 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I can understand how someone could Just-World themselves into thinking, "I'm a hard-working one, they won't deport me."
But this time around, "they", the people who want the deportation, want it because the immigrants are hard workers - the ostensible reason is to protect jobs for citizens, right? Which will happen because:
1. We'll send the immigrants away, never to return.
2. Employers are forced to raise wages, to access the now-smaller labor pool.
3. That's it, I guess?
But the point remains - if she thinks they won't deport her, is that because she has not heard, or doesn't believe, what "they"-elect claim as their motivation.
I guess "Oh, that (labor pool argument) is just a fig leaf for racism, They always gonna They?"
posted by Rat Spatula at 7:24 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
The fact of the matter is that those without a college degree and making under 100k a year broke HARD for Trump. Its OK if those making 400k+ a year vote for Trump---he's going to lower their tax burden so from that perspective it makes sense.
The big question is, what is it about the dems that they can't win these people over even tho nearly everyone agrees their policies will benefit that group more than the rich?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:33 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
The big question is, what is it about the dems that they can't win these people over even tho nearly everyone agrees their policies will benefit that group more than the rich?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:33 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
The big question is, what is it about the dems that they can't win these people over even tho nearly everyone agrees their policies will benefit that group more than the rich?
Race.
posted by grubi at 7:35 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
Race.
posted by grubi at 7:35 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
In the face of all the circular firing squad stuff (again: it was mainly about the economy), here's some good news from NC (excerpt from the independent County-to-County Campaign organization:
"The past few days have sent us on an emotional roller-coaster: anxiety, joy, relief, anger, hope, exhaustion, sorrow – and everything in between. Many of us are feeling fear, anger, and profound sadness over the results of the Presidential race. We are feeling heartbroken at the Democratic losses in many legislative and statewide races.
We also feel gratitude and determination: there is much to be thankful for. North Carolinians elected Democrats Josh Stein (Governor), Rachel Hunt (Lt. Governor), Jeff Jackson (Attorney General), Mo Green (Superintendent of Public Instruction) and Elaine Marshall (Secretary of State) to the Council of State. These are significant wins!
The best news? NC voters broke the Republican Supermajority in the Legislature! And YOUR hard work helped make it happen. Thank you!
Victories by Bryan Cohn (HD 32) and Dante Pittman (HD 24) helped give NC House Democrats enough seats to break the Republican supermajority! This is County-to-County’s primary mission and what we set out to do last January: to give Governor-elect Josh Stein the power of the veto.
Additional Congratulations: Sen. Lisa Grafstein won Senate District 13, and Woodson Bradley still holds a slight edge over her opponent in Senate District 42. "
posted by caviar2d2 at 7:40 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
"The past few days have sent us on an emotional roller-coaster: anxiety, joy, relief, anger, hope, exhaustion, sorrow – and everything in between. Many of us are feeling fear, anger, and profound sadness over the results of the Presidential race. We are feeling heartbroken at the Democratic losses in many legislative and statewide races.
We also feel gratitude and determination: there is much to be thankful for. North Carolinians elected Democrats Josh Stein (Governor), Rachel Hunt (Lt. Governor), Jeff Jackson (Attorney General), Mo Green (Superintendent of Public Instruction) and Elaine Marshall (Secretary of State) to the Council of State. These are significant wins!
The best news? NC voters broke the Republican Supermajority in the Legislature! And YOUR hard work helped make it happen. Thank you!
Victories by Bryan Cohn (HD 32) and Dante Pittman (HD 24) helped give NC House Democrats enough seats to break the Republican supermajority! This is County-to-County’s primary mission and what we set out to do last January: to give Governor-elect Josh Stein the power of the veto.
Additional Congratulations: Sen. Lisa Grafstein won Senate District 13, and Woodson Bradley still holds a slight edge over her opponent in Senate District 42. "
posted by caviar2d2 at 7:40 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
What about all the black and brown people who voted for Trump?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:41 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:41 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
What about all the black and brown people who voted for Trump?
Stupidity is a rainbow.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:52 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
Stupidity is a rainbow.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:52 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
I think Bernie's broad point, which I agree with, is if you are looking for a core message that will galvanize a large number of people, you need it to address a large constituency - and since our country has so much wealth inequality, the biggest constituency in America is poor people + lower middle class people. A message for them will likely also appeal to many mid-middle class people who while doing OK, are one health crisis away from struggling. His 2020 campaign didn't avoid other issues - but yes, his central issue was about class. And with that message he assembled a diverse collation. The average person cares a lot less about representation than some people imagine.
Anyway, I've been thinking more about COVID fallout and the election results. This was an election with an historic gap between people with college degrees and those without. People without college degrees were more likely to be in a line of work that labeled them the patronizing title "essential worker"* when often it just meant "white collar workers currently WFH don't want to live without the ability to get food delivered" and so there is a faction of voters who absorbed an above average amount of COVID health risks, then if they had kids were told in the fall of 2020 that they couldn't drop them off to school because it was too unsafe, despite it apparently being "safe" enough to bartend, or whatever. And not only that, they see people on social media and/or school board Zoom meetings saying they are a heartless, awful person who wants people to die if they want their kid's school to open. The point I'm making is not about whether schools should have reopened or not, just that for a certain parent the cognitive dissonance was stark. And then this same low-income worker would acutely feel the pinch of inflation to the point of struggling to feed their kids, especially once the child tax credit went away in 2022.
Obviously a degree of acrimony was unavoidable - the US didn't have the social safety net needed to support people across the economy through the pandemic. For those two short years that the Democrats were fully in charge, they did expand the safety net a bit - but it wasn't enough, and it was too short-lived. At the state level, there are a number of governors (of both parties) that won affection from their constituents for how they handled the pandemic. Andy Beshear (the Dem Governor of Kentucky) did regular online briefings that were widely circulated on social media that were personable - I saw some coverage of Republican voters who helped re-elect him mention those briefings - it showed he cared and that he was listening, and doing the best he could. It's obviously harder to build that sort of parasocial connection at the federal level, but I can't imagine it helped that Biden did less press conferences than Trump. He was largely hidden away, especially in the last two years, and that's not a great way to sustain trust with the electorate. Yes, Harris is not Biden, but she's closely tied to the Biden administration.
*Of course, some essential workers, like healthcare workers, really were essential to society functioning.
posted by coffeecat at 8:03 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]
Anyway, I've been thinking more about COVID fallout and the election results. This was an election with an historic gap between people with college degrees and those without. People without college degrees were more likely to be in a line of work that labeled them the patronizing title "essential worker"* when often it just meant "white collar workers currently WFH don't want to live without the ability to get food delivered" and so there is a faction of voters who absorbed an above average amount of COVID health risks, then if they had kids were told in the fall of 2020 that they couldn't drop them off to school because it was too unsafe, despite it apparently being "safe" enough to bartend, or whatever. And not only that, they see people on social media and/or school board Zoom meetings saying they are a heartless, awful person who wants people to die if they want their kid's school to open. The point I'm making is not about whether schools should have reopened or not, just that for a certain parent the cognitive dissonance was stark. And then this same low-income worker would acutely feel the pinch of inflation to the point of struggling to feed their kids, especially once the child tax credit went away in 2022.
Obviously a degree of acrimony was unavoidable - the US didn't have the social safety net needed to support people across the economy through the pandemic. For those two short years that the Democrats were fully in charge, they did expand the safety net a bit - but it wasn't enough, and it was too short-lived. At the state level, there are a number of governors (of both parties) that won affection from their constituents for how they handled the pandemic. Andy Beshear (the Dem Governor of Kentucky) did regular online briefings that were widely circulated on social media that were personable - I saw some coverage of Republican voters who helped re-elect him mention those briefings - it showed he cared and that he was listening, and doing the best he could. It's obviously harder to build that sort of parasocial connection at the federal level, but I can't imagine it helped that Biden did less press conferences than Trump. He was largely hidden away, especially in the last two years, and that's not a great way to sustain trust with the electorate. Yes, Harris is not Biden, but she's closely tied to the Biden administration.
*Of course, some essential workers, like healthcare workers, really were essential to society functioning.
posted by coffeecat at 8:03 AM on November 8 [12 favorites]
I guess my point is that calling people stupid and racist is going to 1) win elections or 2) not be informative on how to actually win elections. Its the exact sentiment that these people hate, that these graduate degree pointy head liberals look down on them for not being enlightened enough.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:04 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:04 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
And with that message he assembled a diverse collation.
He won the latino vote in Nevada overwhelmingly, which is where Harris underperformed most of all.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:05 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
He won the latino vote in Nevada overwhelmingly, which is where Harris underperformed most of all.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:05 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
It's disappointing but perhaps not surprising that those trying to defend Bernie are doing so much work to take the discussion away from what he actually said to talk about his broader point, or the diverse coalition he assembled many years ago, or to make this about "calling people stupid and racist". Bernie had many options on how to respond to this ass-kicking, and he chose to throw his lot in with the pundit class who are saying "they lost because woke". That was a choice! AOC made the correct choice, and he didn't. Why is that?
posted by tonycpsu at 8:15 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 8:15 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Read his full official statement (twitter link, sorry - couldn't find an alternative). His argument is not "because woke." If you make a bad faith argument here, expect pushback.
posted by coffeecat at 8:20 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 8:20 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
or to make this about "calling people stupid and racist".
I'm responding to comments that yes, called people stupid and racist.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:22 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
I'm responding to comments that yes, called people stupid and racist.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:22 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
I guess my point is that calling people stupid and racist is going to 1) win elections or 2) not be informative on how to actually win elections. Its the exact sentiment that these people hate, that these graduate degree pointy head liberals look down on them for not being enlightened enough.
You're right; we should figure out how to make racists feel better about themselves. /s
posted by grubi at 8:22 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
You're right; we should figure out how to make racists feel better about themselves. /s
posted by grubi at 8:22 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
No we should figure out how to make people who voted for Trump vote for the next dem.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:24 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:24 AM on November 8 [9 favorites]
Sorry, does his official statement include the words "I would like to pre-emptively retract the statement I will make to the New York Times in an article published tomorrow that sets up a false choice between supporting marginalized groups and supporting the working class?"
posted by tonycpsu at 8:26 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 8:26 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I guess my point is that calling people stupid and racist is going to 1) win elections or 2) not be informative on how to actually win elections. Its the exact sentiment that these people hate, that these graduate degree pointy head liberals look down on them for not being enlightened enough.
Perhaps a better framing is that lot of Trump voters, regardless of race, are not basing their vote on logic?
Is there a cultural/emotional message that can break through - because Trump's message sure had enough momentum to capture people that are going to be his victims.
That's one thing you can say about Bernie Sanders- his cultural appeal of being plainspoken reaches people. There is a sizeable contingent of Trump voters and Rogan fans that I bet would still give Sanders a shot, even though they probably don't know much about his policies.
I initially thought that was the Harris campaign's strategy, but I think I was wrong about that. Too much triangulation kinda kills the momentum.
posted by ishmael at 8:26 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Perhaps a better framing is that lot of Trump voters, regardless of race, are not basing their vote on logic?
Is there a cultural/emotional message that can break through - because Trump's message sure had enough momentum to capture people that are going to be his victims.
That's one thing you can say about Bernie Sanders- his cultural appeal of being plainspoken reaches people. There is a sizeable contingent of Trump voters and Rogan fans that I bet would still give Sanders a shot, even though they probably don't know much about his policies.
I initially thought that was the Harris campaign's strategy, but I think I was wrong about that. Too much triangulation kinda kills the momentum.
posted by ishmael at 8:26 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
I'm responding to comments that yes, called people stupid and racist.
I don't think the Democrats' messaging should be that Trump voters are stupid and racist (and transphobic, misogynistic, and so forth). But none of us are (to the best of my knowledge) Democratic spokespeople, and Trump voters are in aggregate all of those things and more.
The space of acceptable opinions shouldn't be reduced to the subset of political useful messaging.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:28 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
I don't think the Democrats' messaging should be that Trump voters are stupid and racist (and transphobic, misogynistic, and so forth). But none of us are (to the best of my knowledge) Democratic spokespeople, and Trump voters are in aggregate all of those things and more.
The space of acceptable opinions shouldn't be reduced to the subset of political useful messaging.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:28 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
Its the exact sentiment that these people hate, that these graduate degree pointy head liberals look down on them for not being enlightened enough.
If they're not stupid then they rationally voted for the guy with their eyes wide open, and that's worse. Oh, you looked at orange Hitler and soberly and intelligently decided that you liked all that stuff? That's monstrous in a way that being a bit stupid and racist isn't.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:32 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]
If they're not stupid then they rationally voted for the guy with their eyes wide open, and that's worse. Oh, you looked at orange Hitler and soberly and intelligently decided that you liked all that stuff? That's monstrous in a way that being a bit stupid and racist isn't.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:32 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]
I'm willing to switch to hating them for being villains instead, maybe that would stroke their egos a bit
posted by BungaDunga at 8:36 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 8:36 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
There is a big gap between "stupid" and "had time to consume all information available to them and rationally came up with an answer."
posted by coffeecat at 8:36 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 8:36 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Trump has been a known quantity for a decade. How much more time do they need?
posted by BungaDunga at 8:37 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 8:37 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
This is contra the national narrative I've seen about how Trump stayed the same but Harris lost tons of votes.
Is there even a version of narrative besides the one based on people not understanding that the final California count comes in hella late?
posted by atoxyl at 8:37 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
Is there even a version of narrative besides the one based on people not understanding that the final California count comes in hella late?
posted by atoxyl at 8:37 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
I am generally well disposed towards Bernie Sanders, and I think he is right about the Democrats needing to deliver a clearer, more consistent economic message. But he is wrong about the problem being an emphasis on "identity politics". The Democrats are beholden to the same economic interests as the Republicans.
Maybe the full interview will have some context that makes it less unfortunate, but I am disappointed in him for making a statement like that.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:38 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Maybe the full interview will have some context that makes it less unfortunate, but I am disappointed in him for making a statement like that.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:38 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
It wouldn't surprise me to have the NYT deceptively edit context of Bernie's comments to amplify a "Democrats (and independents who caucus with Democrats) in disarray" message, but I am having trouble imagining a larger point he was making that would benefit from including those words in that order. And if that were the case, he should know what the NYT is and does, and anticipate that distortion. Clear example of a guy who's done so much good as a political leader but probably needs to let some younger, more diverse, and more media-savvy voices carry the message going forward.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:46 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 8:46 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
But he is wrong about the problem being an emphasis on "identity politics"
The stronger argument against him here, I think, is that the Harris campaign clearly did back down on some of the less effective approaches to “identity politics” (though she did get nailed to her awkward attempts to run away from the center in 2020 when the wave was sweeping the other way). And she did keep a pretty solid focus on the economy, and it still wasn’t enough.
Of course, her way of talking about the economy was Bernie’s way of talking about the economy, and I suspect his way of talking about the economy - not the use of the “s” word, but the anger at the ownership class - would have played better with some of the folks she couldn’t reach. But he also has an ability to deliver that message that not everyone has!
posted by atoxyl at 8:46 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
The stronger argument against him here, I think, is that the Harris campaign clearly did back down on some of the less effective approaches to “identity politics” (though she did get nailed to her awkward attempts to run away from the center in 2020 when the wave was sweeping the other way). And she did keep a pretty solid focus on the economy, and it still wasn’t enough.
Of course, her way of talking about the economy was Bernie’s way of talking about the economy, and I suspect his way of talking about the economy - not the use of the “s” word, but the anger at the ownership class - would have played better with some of the folks she couldn’t reach. But he also has an ability to deliver that message that not everyone has!
posted by atoxyl at 8:46 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I guess my point is that calling people stupid and racist is going to 1) win elections or 2) not be informative on how to actually win elections.
I called people misogynists, and yes I also think they are stupid, racist and illogical. I myself am also these things on a weekly if not daily basis. But unlike most people, I stop and think and correct myself nearly every single time. I have more success intercepting my own racism and misogyny than my stupid and my illogical. YMMV.
We don't win by calling people these things. We just recognize that they are. And I'm so sorry to be saying this, especially as a woman - We do have information on how to be better positioned in elections. We cannot afford to have a female candidate and especially a woman of colour at this level again for a long time. I was wrong to believe she could win. There should have been primaries where a white man was selected.
It's devastating that this is true, and it's infuriating that the men on the left refuse to see it.
posted by kitcat at 8:54 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
I called people misogynists, and yes I also think they are stupid, racist and illogical. I myself am also these things on a weekly if not daily basis. But unlike most people, I stop and think and correct myself nearly every single time. I have more success intercepting my own racism and misogyny than my stupid and my illogical. YMMV.
We don't win by calling people these things. We just recognize that they are. And I'm so sorry to be saying this, especially as a woman - We do have information on how to be better positioned in elections. We cannot afford to have a female candidate and especially a woman of colour at this level again for a long time. I was wrong to believe she could win. There should have been primaries where a white man was selected.
It's devastating that this is true, and it's infuriating that the men on the left refuse to see it.
posted by kitcat at 8:54 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
Of course, her way of talking about the economy was Bernie’s way of talking about the economy
This should say “was not” - hope that’s clear from remaining context otherwise the whole thing is a mess!
Anyway I’d put him in the bucket of “not quite wrong but basically piling on to get his message out like everyone else.” Better than the self-promoting consultants, at least.
posted by atoxyl at 9:05 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
This should say “was not” - hope that’s clear from remaining context otherwise the whole thing is a mess!
Anyway I’d put him in the bucket of “not quite wrong but basically piling on to get his message out like everyone else.” Better than the self-promoting consultants, at least.
posted by atoxyl at 9:05 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Its not that 'I refuse to see it' its that theres a decent amount of evidence that this would have been a bigger blowout if Biden was the candidate. The dems not running a female or POC candidate in the future because of this is going to blow up in their faces when the republicans do, and yes, despite all their bigotry, the republicans will vote for a POC woman if they're hateful enough. This was an incredibly difficult economy for ANY incumbent to win.
We also have research on this topic:
Candidate choice survey experiments in the form of conjoint or vignette experiments have become a standard part of the political science toolkit for understanding the effects of candidate characteristics on vote choice. We collect 67 such studies from all over the world and reanalyze them using a standardized approach. We find that the average effect of being a woman (relative to a man) is a gain of approximately 2 percentage points. We find some evidence of heterogeneity across contexts, candidates, and respondents. The difference is somewhat larger for white (vs. black) candidates and among survey respondents who are women (vs. men) or, in the US context, identify as Democrats or Independents (vs. Republicans). Our results add to the growing body of experimental and observational evidence that voter preferences are not a major factor explaining the persistently low rates of women in elected office.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:07 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
We also have research on this topic:
Candidate choice survey experiments in the form of conjoint or vignette experiments have become a standard part of the political science toolkit for understanding the effects of candidate characteristics on vote choice. We collect 67 such studies from all over the world and reanalyze them using a standardized approach. We find that the average effect of being a woman (relative to a man) is a gain of approximately 2 percentage points. We find some evidence of heterogeneity across contexts, candidates, and respondents. The difference is somewhat larger for white (vs. black) candidates and among survey respondents who are women (vs. men) or, in the US context, identify as Democrats or Independents (vs. Republicans). Our results add to the growing body of experimental and observational evidence that voter preferences are not a major factor explaining the persistently low rates of women in elected office.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:07 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
In a different timeline where everything else is equal but Harris ran with the benefit of anti-incumbent rage, she would likely have won. Racism and sexism were factors, but not enough to explain the margin of this loss. The party will of course run away from women and racial minorities for President next time, but they shouldn't, because it wasn't the sole or primary reason this happened.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:07 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 9:07 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
The identify politics things is a very weird derail in the election post-mortems.
I don't think swing voters cared at all about identify politics in any primary sense. Many like them as a general matter. They only disliked their emphasis, if they did at all, to the extent it made them worry about priorities.
If Harris could have persuasively said, "I'm bringing back 2019 rents and grocery prices, and I'm proud trans people, WOCs and immigrants will be key parts of my team delivering this result, and I intend trans people, WOCs and immigrants generally won't be excluded from the benefits of this and other good things I do" I think those people would have been "here's my vote."
posted by MattD at 9:10 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I don't think swing voters cared at all about identify politics in any primary sense. Many like them as a general matter. They only disliked their emphasis, if they did at all, to the extent it made them worry about priorities.
If Harris could have persuasively said, "I'm bringing back 2019 rents and grocery prices, and I'm proud trans people, WOCs and immigrants will be key parts of my team delivering this result, and I intend trans people, WOCs and immigrants generally won't be excluded from the benefits of this and other good things I do" I think those people would have been "here's my vote."
posted by MattD at 9:10 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Trump has been a known quantity for a decade. How much more time do they need?
Well for one thing, voters 18-25 (who while they did vote for Harris, not at the same margins as Biden) were kids during part or all of Trump's first term, and many were likely not paying much attention. You and I might have been the sort of teen that read newspapers, but most do not. I mean, most adults do not read newspapers - there is certainly a contingent of Trump voters this time around that think he'll be better for the economy because they remember having more spending power under him, and think the fears about him are overblown. I certainly don't disagree that they're wrong on all fronts, but I don't think they're stupid either, and I definitely don't think it's productive to think about them that way.
It wouldn't surprise me to have the NYT deceptively edit context of Bernie's comments
If you read his official statement (which was issued before the NYTimes article asked him for a quote) it mentions identity politics exactly zero times. It's not his focus. If I was to hazard a guess, the reporter asked him some leading question like "Do you think identity politics had anything to do with this?" and I would imagine part of him is still irritated about how his supporters kept being described in the media/by talking heads as "white Bernie Bros" when that just wasn't the case. Or how he got pulverized in the liberal media for going on Joe Rogan's podcast. He's not against actual solidarity, but he is well aware that a certain brand of what passes for "identity politics" is a cynical weapon elites use to keep the working class divided. The original meaning and use of the term has certainly gotten distorted.
posted by coffeecat at 9:10 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]
Well for one thing, voters 18-25 (who while they did vote for Harris, not at the same margins as Biden) were kids during part or all of Trump's first term, and many were likely not paying much attention. You and I might have been the sort of teen that read newspapers, but most do not. I mean, most adults do not read newspapers - there is certainly a contingent of Trump voters this time around that think he'll be better for the economy because they remember having more spending power under him, and think the fears about him are overblown. I certainly don't disagree that they're wrong on all fronts, but I don't think they're stupid either, and I definitely don't think it's productive to think about them that way.
It wouldn't surprise me to have the NYT deceptively edit context of Bernie's comments
If you read his official statement (which was issued before the NYTimes article asked him for a quote) it mentions identity politics exactly zero times. It's not his focus. If I was to hazard a guess, the reporter asked him some leading question like "Do you think identity politics had anything to do with this?" and I would imagine part of him is still irritated about how his supporters kept being described in the media/by talking heads as "white Bernie Bros" when that just wasn't the case. Or how he got pulverized in the liberal media for going on Joe Rogan's podcast. He's not against actual solidarity, but he is well aware that a certain brand of what passes for "identity politics" is a cynical weapon elites use to keep the working class divided. The original meaning and use of the term has certainly gotten distorted.
posted by coffeecat at 9:10 AM on November 8 [11 favorites]
In a different timeline where everything else is equal but Harris ran with the benefit of anti-incumbent rage, she would likely have won. Racism and sexism were factors, but not enough to explain the margin of this loss. The party will of course run away from women and racial minorities for President next time, but they shouldn't, because it wasn't the sole or primary reason this happened.
Also, I completely agree with this.
posted by coffeecat at 9:13 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
Also, I completely agree with this.
posted by coffeecat at 9:13 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
In a different timeline where everything else is equal but Harris ran with the benefit of anti-incumbent rage, she would likely have won.
I think declaring there was 'anti-incumbent' rage is a bit too media - "creating a story out of disparate data points" story. There was no 'anti-incumbent' rage. The vast majority of the incumbents won in this election. The few that lost are somewhat surprising. There is no way that people in the US who we are calling low-information voters who care also care about the economy are even aware that other world-wide incumbents lost.
Also, if the 'economy' is why Harris lost and why people disliked Biden, then again, Democrats have no tools moving forward to win any future elections. The 'economy' under Biden was perfectly fine - there are no tools in any playbook that both lifts up the lower end of the economic spectrum and doesn't increase inflation of basic consumables, unless it's full on price controls, which the majority of the population doesn't want.
There are Republican tools, ie: crash the economy to bring down prices, but Republicans can play that card because they don't care about the plight of lower income people.
It's going to be absolutely hilarious too when the week after Trump is seated, people get 20+ points in faith in 'the economy'. It's like 80% politically correlated. Pundits heads will explode.
The only point I'd concede is that Democrats let Republicans and Trump control the message on the economy. Biden got too old and Harris just came in way too late.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:27 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]
I think declaring there was 'anti-incumbent' rage is a bit too media - "creating a story out of disparate data points" story. There was no 'anti-incumbent' rage. The vast majority of the incumbents won in this election. The few that lost are somewhat surprising. There is no way that people in the US who we are calling low-information voters who care also care about the economy are even aware that other world-wide incumbents lost.
Also, if the 'economy' is why Harris lost and why people disliked Biden, then again, Democrats have no tools moving forward to win any future elections. The 'economy' under Biden was perfectly fine - there are no tools in any playbook that both lifts up the lower end of the economic spectrum and doesn't increase inflation of basic consumables, unless it's full on price controls, which the majority of the population doesn't want.
There are Republican tools, ie: crash the economy to bring down prices, but Republicans can play that card because they don't care about the plight of lower income people.
It's going to be absolutely hilarious too when the week after Trump is seated, people get 20+ points in faith in 'the economy'. It's like 80% politically correlated. Pundits heads will explode.
The only point I'd concede is that Democrats let Republicans and Trump control the message on the economy. Biden got too old and Harris just came in way too late.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:27 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]
Yet another "you're not helping" moment, this one from Matt Stoller:
posted by tonycpsu at 9:32 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]
Democrats saw this rich dingbat lady obsessed with lifestyle branding and were too afraid of being called racist or sexist to say 'maybe she shouldn't have the nuclear codes?Go home, Matt, you're drunk.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:32 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]
One heartening thing: there's no legal way Trump can make himself president for life. (Of course, this being Trump...)
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:34 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:34 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
The Supreme Court will invalidate the 22nd Amendment the same way they did the 14th.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:41 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 9:41 AM on November 8 [10 favorites]
he'd have to make it for four more years, first - don't bet on it
posted by pyramid termite at 10:04 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 10:04 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
there's no legal way Trump can make himself president for life.
What's 'legal' got to do with it? Anyone who thinks this guy won't try is kidding themselves. And anyone who thinks the judicial apparatus in place won't try to give him what he wants is out of their minds.
posted by grubi at 10:07 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
What's 'legal' got to do with it? Anyone who thinks this guy won't try is kidding themselves. And anyone who thinks the judicial apparatus in place won't try to give him what he wants is out of their minds.
posted by grubi at 10:07 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
The party will of course run away from women and racial minorities for President next time, but they shouldn't, because it wasn't the sole or primary reason this happened.
I predicted the MAGA successor is going to be a reactionary woman Republican. Now I'm predicting she'll be a Republican Latina. Or, perhaps, Usha Vance after a very Game of Thrones series of events.
The 'economy' under Biden was perfectly fine - there are no tools in any playbook that both lifts up the lower end of the economic spectrum and doesn't increase inflation of basic consumables,
Then their messaging massively sucked and there's that good ol' Democratic elitism barrier again that's been around since- Adlai Stevenson?- but the likes of Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama were somehow able to punch through.
unless it's full on price controls, which the majority of the population doesn't want.
Thought this Twitterland proposal by @joolsd was neat-
I predicted the MAGA successor is going to be a reactionary woman Republican. Now I'm predicting she'll be a Republican Latina. Or, perhaps, Usha Vance after a very Game of Thrones series of events.
The 'economy' under Biden was perfectly fine - there are no tools in any playbook that both lifts up the lower end of the economic spectrum and doesn't increase inflation of basic consumables,
Then their messaging massively sucked and there's that good ol' Democratic elitism barrier again that's been around since- Adlai Stevenson?- but the likes of Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama were somehow able to punch through.
unless it's full on price controls, which the majority of the population doesn't want.
Thought this Twitterland proposal by @joolsd was neat-
they really could have neutralised this with some token price controls or something lol. something really dumb, "Biden Beef" where everyone gets a special ebt card and 50 bucks a month to spend on costco ground beefposted by Apocryphon at 10:10 AM on November 8 [2 favorites]
with Mexico [where the incumbent party overcame inflation blame] there's also historically recent experience of really really high inflation - the inflation here was combined with an incredibly strong peso so it kind of cut both ways
but *also* they did ultimately not very expensive things like "gas de bienestar" (welfare gas) where the state sold at-cost home LPG tanks during the energy shock (with a big sticker with a picture of Benito Juárez on the side)
Go home, Matt, you're drunk.
Stoller is getting destroyed by derek guy (@dieworkwear), stick a fork in him
posted by Apocryphon at 10:14 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
Stoller is getting destroyed by derek guy (@dieworkwear), stick a fork in him
posted by Apocryphon at 10:14 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
there's no legal way Trump can make himself president for life.
If Trump tried to make himself president for life there are enough guns in the United States that I’m reasonably sure someone who can aim will eventually succeed.
posted by corb at 10:20 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
If Trump tried to make himself president for life there are enough guns in the United States that I’m reasonably sure someone who can aim will eventually succeed.
posted by corb at 10:20 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
I have no idea how believing people in Gaza should not be slaughtered requires focusing less on so-called identity politics. It doesn't have to be either/or.
Identity politics refers to the hypocrisy of the Democrats campaigning against racial, gender, and economic injustice while also pursuing policies that hurt people of color, women, queers, and the working class. Palestine is the most acute example of all of these things on a horrifying scale.
I understand that "identity politics" can be used as a racist dogwhistle. In 2016, I would have agreed that it's poor messaging. In 2024, I'm not so sure. For better or for worse, the phrase "identity politics" has stuck and it means both things. I'm just glad Bernie gave us enough context in his full statement so we know where he's coming from.
posted by ftrtts at 10:22 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
Identity politics refers to the hypocrisy of the Democrats campaigning against racial, gender, and economic injustice while also pursuing policies that hurt people of color, women, queers, and the working class. Palestine is the most acute example of all of these things on a horrifying scale.
I understand that "identity politics" can be used as a racist dogwhistle. In 2016, I would have agreed that it's poor messaging. In 2024, I'm not so sure. For better or for worse, the phrase "identity politics" has stuck and it means both things. I'm just glad Bernie gave us enough context in his full statement so we know where he's coming from.
posted by ftrtts at 10:22 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
I'm not going to delve into questions of who/what is to blame, but I do want to say-- It's crazy how warped our perception of elections has gotten in the US. People are calling this a landslide victory... because the Republican candidate managed to win the popular vote. Even media outlets that don't call it that are reporting on the election as if Donald Trump has won an unprecedented knockout victory. We have so deeply normalized Republicans failing, not even trying, to win actual popular support for their candidates that one of them doing it very narrowly is now a landslide. I think this is absolute garbage, both because it-- again-- normalizes Republicans imposing their minority vision on the majority, but also because it gives them ammunition to claim a massive popular mandate.
When all the votes are counted, Trump's on track to win the popular vote by a 1.5 - 2% margin. When Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5%, absolutely no one called it a landslide. He had taken the highest percentage of the vote for a challenger to an incumbent president since FDR's actual landslide win in 1932, but no one said he had a big mandate for change. Everyone said it was evidence of how deeply divided this country is. Nobody's saying that now, as far as I can see. The media discourse seems to be painting a picture of a resurgent Trump winning a mandate for change and dealing a crippling, maybe existential blow to Democrats.
I am well aware that the Electoral College is what counts, that's not what I'm saying. I'm also well aware that Trump winning at all is appalling, much less with a popular plurality, I'm not disputing that or quibbling over the numbers either. And this is far from the worst thing about this election, so if you're rolling your eyes and wondering if I don't have anything better to complain about, sure, you have a point. But I think this is bad. I think we have deeply internalized a double standard in this country that Republicans get to win without actual popular support and that's now our baseline-- and when a Republican does win the popular vote, even by a very narrow margin, it's interpreted as a landslide. Democrats are simply expected to win more votes. It doesn't mean anything when they do.
We need to stop that. Stop letting Republicans get away with this insipid double standard. Challenge anyone who calls this a landslide or a popular upswell or a mandate for massive change. Challenge the double standard that enables Republicans to normalize minority rule. It's garbage.
posted by Method Man at 10:25 AM on November 8 [27 favorites]
When all the votes are counted, Trump's on track to win the popular vote by a 1.5 - 2% margin. When Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5%, absolutely no one called it a landslide. He had taken the highest percentage of the vote for a challenger to an incumbent president since FDR's actual landslide win in 1932, but no one said he had a big mandate for change. Everyone said it was evidence of how deeply divided this country is. Nobody's saying that now, as far as I can see. The media discourse seems to be painting a picture of a resurgent Trump winning a mandate for change and dealing a crippling, maybe existential blow to Democrats.
I am well aware that the Electoral College is what counts, that's not what I'm saying. I'm also well aware that Trump winning at all is appalling, much less with a popular plurality, I'm not disputing that or quibbling over the numbers either. And this is far from the worst thing about this election, so if you're rolling your eyes and wondering if I don't have anything better to complain about, sure, you have a point. But I think this is bad. I think we have deeply internalized a double standard in this country that Republicans get to win without actual popular support and that's now our baseline-- and when a Republican does win the popular vote, even by a very narrow margin, it's interpreted as a landslide. Democrats are simply expected to win more votes. It doesn't mean anything when they do.
We need to stop that. Stop letting Republicans get away with this insipid double standard. Challenge anyone who calls this a landslide or a popular upswell or a mandate for massive change. Challenge the double standard that enables Republicans to normalize minority rule. It's garbage.
posted by Method Man at 10:25 AM on November 8 [27 favorites]
The Supreme Court will invalidate the 22nd Amendment the same way they did the 14th.
I don't think objectivity is minimizing the impending challenge. If SCOTUS is going to blatantly help Trump like that, why didn't they given his fraudulent election fraud claims the time of day in 2021? I have no doubt that the Court will make many far right Federalist Society-informed rulings for the foreseeable future, but perhaps people are catastrophizing how bad it will truly be?
I hold that at the core, Trump is mostly going to act within the boundaries of a typical Republican. (Which isn't so much praising him as it is damning the modern GOP.) Does anyone think Ted Cruz would have been any less radical? Was the Tea Party any more reasonable than MAGA, other than being less blatant on border hawkery? As I said upthread, does anything think Jeb Bush would have had more moderate SCOTUS picks? Or President Liz Cheney, for that matter?
Projecting all of the worst-case scenarios is unhelpful- not only does it impede action, it self-depresses and lowers morale even further. Also, it just creates boogeymen where there are none. I've seen people talking about an abortion ban. Why? Trump already won the presidency, he doesn't need to pander to the religious right, he actively was relatively moderate on an issue that alienated them. Conservative Christians are commenting that the pro-life movement is dead as a political force. They shackled themselves to a low-moral adulterer who promised IVFs for all, just for a victory where he owed them nothing. Why would he do anything about abortion? Not to mention all of those states that voted for Trump and pro-abortion or anti-anti-abortion measures. It somewhat mirrors a lot of pro-pot legalization passing in 2016. Talking about Trump chasing the abortion issue now is like suggesting he was going to redo the Drug War against marijuana back then.
I think the Trump years, at their worst, kicked in in 2020, with the absolutely horrific black swan event of the pandemic. Totally the wrong holder for the office during a global crisis. But that wasn't something he premeditated. It wasn't even purely malevolence- it was sheer incompetence, crossed with malevolence. For those reasons, I'm not sure how strongly he'd be able to achieve the "dismantling democracy" angle, and I don't see why SCOTUS would aid him in that to the extent of getting rid of the 22nd amendment, when they didn't help him in 2021.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:27 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
I don't think objectivity is minimizing the impending challenge. If SCOTUS is going to blatantly help Trump like that, why didn't they given his fraudulent election fraud claims the time of day in 2021? I have no doubt that the Court will make many far right Federalist Society-informed rulings for the foreseeable future, but perhaps people are catastrophizing how bad it will truly be?
I hold that at the core, Trump is mostly going to act within the boundaries of a typical Republican. (Which isn't so much praising him as it is damning the modern GOP.) Does anyone think Ted Cruz would have been any less radical? Was the Tea Party any more reasonable than MAGA, other than being less blatant on border hawkery? As I said upthread, does anything think Jeb Bush would have had more moderate SCOTUS picks? Or President Liz Cheney, for that matter?
Projecting all of the worst-case scenarios is unhelpful- not only does it impede action, it self-depresses and lowers morale even further. Also, it just creates boogeymen where there are none. I've seen people talking about an abortion ban. Why? Trump already won the presidency, he doesn't need to pander to the religious right, he actively was relatively moderate on an issue that alienated them. Conservative Christians are commenting that the pro-life movement is dead as a political force. They shackled themselves to a low-moral adulterer who promised IVFs for all, just for a victory where he owed them nothing. Why would he do anything about abortion? Not to mention all of those states that voted for Trump and pro-abortion or anti-anti-abortion measures. It somewhat mirrors a lot of pro-pot legalization passing in 2016. Talking about Trump chasing the abortion issue now is like suggesting he was going to redo the Drug War against marijuana back then.
I think the Trump years, at their worst, kicked in in 2020, with the absolutely horrific black swan event of the pandemic. Totally the wrong holder for the office during a global crisis. But that wasn't something he premeditated. It wasn't even purely malevolence- it was sheer incompetence, crossed with malevolence. For those reasons, I'm not sure how strongly he'd be able to achieve the "dismantling democracy" angle, and I don't see why SCOTUS would aid him in that to the extent of getting rid of the 22nd amendment, when they didn't help him in 2021.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:27 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
What's 'legal' got to do with it? Anyone who thinks this guy won't try is kidding themselves.
He wants to be Bizarro FDR, staying in power until he's dead and completely transforming American institutions, but making everything worse instead of better.
posted by clawsoon at 10:37 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
He wants to be Bizarro FDR, staying in power until he's dead and completely transforming American institutions, but making everything worse instead of better.
posted by clawsoon at 10:37 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Because they are conservative hacks who care nothing about the actual "rule of law"?
posted by Windopaene at 10:37 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 10:37 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Four more years (at least) of headlines like this:
CNN: The last best hope for Supreme Court liberals: Amy Coney Barrett
posted by inflatablekiwi at 10:45 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]
CNN: The last best hope for Supreme Court liberals: Amy Coney Barrett
posted by inflatablekiwi at 10:45 AM on November 8 [6 favorites]
Also, been seeing a lot of "well if Trump repeals the 22nd amendment then that just means Obama can come back and beat him"
posted by Apocryphon at 10:45 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon at 10:45 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
Yeah, that's why I said legal. I'm pretty sure he'll do/try anything and everyone will back him up when he becomes President Emperor For Life. But it was nice to read that legally it's too long of a shot even for a Republican majority.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:46 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:46 AM on November 8 [1 favorite]
I was done with CNN after Gulf War I. Maybe that's just me though.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:46 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:46 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
I guess my point is that calling people stupid and racist is going to 1) win elections or 2) not be informative on how to actually win elections. Its the exact sentiment that these people hate, that these graduate degree pointy head liberals look down on them for not being enlightened enough.
Hey, you're in luck! You can get a white guy who didn't even graduate high school to call them stupid and look down upon them. It's me. I'd be very happy to accommodate their wish to feel insulted by someone who isn't a pointy headed liberal. Hopefully it's ok to do it while wearing track shorts and cheap Walmart t shirts, because I don't own anything else.
Morons who wouldn't know what patriotism is if George Washington himself rose from the grave and gave his best effort at beating it into them, all. Fucking loyalist quislings. I hope their extra flammable Chinese-made flags catch their houses on fire.
(I don't actually wish bodily harm on anyone, even if they are actual factual dictionary definition traitors)
I'm going to go listen to John Prine's "Your Flag Decal Won't Get You Into Heaven Anymore" now. Maybe I'll follow it up with "Not Ready to Make Nice".
posted by wierdo at 11:01 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
Hey, you're in luck! You can get a white guy who didn't even graduate high school to call them stupid and look down upon them. It's me. I'd be very happy to accommodate their wish to feel insulted by someone who isn't a pointy headed liberal. Hopefully it's ok to do it while wearing track shorts and cheap Walmart t shirts, because I don't own anything else.
Morons who wouldn't know what patriotism is if George Washington himself rose from the grave and gave his best effort at beating it into them, all. Fucking loyalist quislings. I hope their extra flammable Chinese-made flags catch their houses on fire.
(I don't actually wish bodily harm on anyone, even if they are actual factual dictionary definition traitors)
I'm going to go listen to John Prine's "Your Flag Decal Won't Get You Into Heaven Anymore" now. Maybe I'll follow it up with "Not Ready to Make Nice".
posted by wierdo at 11:01 AM on November 8 [7 favorites]
there are no tools in any playbook that both lifts up the lower end of the economic spectrum and doesn't increase inflation of basic consumables, unless it's full on price controls, which the majority of the population doesn't want.
Sure there are. Progressive assets taxes.
The way that works is by making the returns available from hoarding assets uncompetitive with the returns available from starting new businesses. This, in turn, causes multiple effects that all push in a consumer-friendly direction.
First, it causes the very wealthy to need to sell off enough assets to be able to pay their assets tax bill. Those assets will be bought back by the same members of the upper middle classes who sold them to the very wealthy in the first place, probably for less than they got for them because supply has gone up. And because none of those new owners will be holding asset portfolios anywhere near the size of those of the old owners, they won't be paying anywhere near the same rate of assets tax on them, and will find it correspondingly easier to turn a profit from them.
Reducing the price of assets causes corresponding reductions in the returns that they're expected to make. So rents of various kinds, notably rents on commercial and domestic property, fall. This is deflationary, and some of the businesses whose costs it will lower are those supplying basic consumables.
Second, it gives the very wealthy a direct financial incentive to invest their enormous passive incomes in creating new business ventures rather than using them to buy up and hoard existing assets. This increases competition in every marketplace, which is again deflationary and again, some of those marketplaces will be those in which basic consumables are traded.
Both of these deflationary effects reduce the pressure that reserve banks are under to control inflation by jacking up interest rates in order to "reduce demand" (i.e. make consumers poorer).
Third, assets taxes give governments a large source of new revenue that they can spend in ways that offset both of those deflationary effects, if that becomes necessary in order to keep inflation within the usual 2-3% anti-recession target band. That spending can take the form of both direct payments to low-income households and income tax cuts for workers on higher incomes.
The only social group that progressive assets taxes leave in an unambiguously worse financial position are the very wealthy families currently hoarding the lion's share of the nation's assets. Such families are a very small portion of the populace, and the financial position that they will end up in will still be massively better than anybody else's anyway, so their crocodile tears about being horribly victimized really ought to be very easy to ignore.
Granted, it is kind of a pity that they own all the propaganda outlets.
posted by flabdablet at 11:10 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]
Sure there are. Progressive assets taxes.
The way that works is by making the returns available from hoarding assets uncompetitive with the returns available from starting new businesses. This, in turn, causes multiple effects that all push in a consumer-friendly direction.
First, it causes the very wealthy to need to sell off enough assets to be able to pay their assets tax bill. Those assets will be bought back by the same members of the upper middle classes who sold them to the very wealthy in the first place, probably for less than they got for them because supply has gone up. And because none of those new owners will be holding asset portfolios anywhere near the size of those of the old owners, they won't be paying anywhere near the same rate of assets tax on them, and will find it correspondingly easier to turn a profit from them.
Reducing the price of assets causes corresponding reductions in the returns that they're expected to make. So rents of various kinds, notably rents on commercial and domestic property, fall. This is deflationary, and some of the businesses whose costs it will lower are those supplying basic consumables.
Second, it gives the very wealthy a direct financial incentive to invest their enormous passive incomes in creating new business ventures rather than using them to buy up and hoard existing assets. This increases competition in every marketplace, which is again deflationary and again, some of those marketplaces will be those in which basic consumables are traded.
Both of these deflationary effects reduce the pressure that reserve banks are under to control inflation by jacking up interest rates in order to "reduce demand" (i.e. make consumers poorer).
Third, assets taxes give governments a large source of new revenue that they can spend in ways that offset both of those deflationary effects, if that becomes necessary in order to keep inflation within the usual 2-3% anti-recession target band. That spending can take the form of both direct payments to low-income households and income tax cuts for workers on higher incomes.
The only social group that progressive assets taxes leave in an unambiguously worse financial position are the very wealthy families currently hoarding the lion's share of the nation's assets. Such families are a very small portion of the populace, and the financial position that they will end up in will still be massively better than anybody else's anyway, so their crocodile tears about being horribly victimized really ought to be very easy to ignore.
Granted, it is kind of a pity that they own all the propaganda outlets.
posted by flabdablet at 11:10 AM on November 8 [13 favorites]
It might help to consider Harris's fate in relation to the glass cliff that faces women in senior roles:
The glass cliff phenomenon occurs when women do reach the top levels of the corporate ladder—but only during crisis when the company is experiencing poor performance or turmoil. ... “White women and men and women of color are more likely than White men to be promoted CEO of weakly performing firms.” Because they are elevated when an organization faces difficulties, their position is inherently risky and precarious.
If ever there was a "weakly performing firm" in early 2024...
posted by rory at 11:21 AM on November 8 [18 favorites]
The glass cliff phenomenon occurs when women do reach the top levels of the corporate ladder—but only during crisis when the company is experiencing poor performance or turmoil. ... “White women and men and women of color are more likely than White men to be promoted CEO of weakly performing firms.” Because they are elevated when an organization faces difficulties, their position is inherently risky and precarious.
If ever there was a "weakly performing firm" in early 2024...
posted by rory at 11:21 AM on November 8 [18 favorites]
If Trump tried to make himself president for life there are enough guns in the United States that I’m reasonably sure someone who can aim will eventually succeed.
Well actually, corb, that is yet another American job outsourced overseas.
posted by y2karl at 11:41 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
Well actually, corb, that is yet another American job outsourced overseas.
posted by y2karl at 11:41 AM on November 8 [3 favorites]
Trying to understand this election, I lean towards: a lot of the result is a one-off, because of the painful (COVID-powered) inflation spike -- that Biden failed to counter and Harris failed to distance herself from. Democrats overlooked it because they have too many wonks looking at FRED graphs. Voters hate it more than anything, and they voted for change because they put it all on the president.
Also, if the 'economy' is why Harris lost and why people disliked Biden, then again, Democrats have no tools moving forward to win any future elections.
I don't think it's such a tight bind, though I'm sure capitalism-lovers would like it to be so. But in any case people were already saying deliverism is dead anyway.
posted by fleacircus at 11:43 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Also, if the 'economy' is why Harris lost and why people disliked Biden, then again, Democrats have no tools moving forward to win any future elections.
I don't think it's such a tight bind, though I'm sure capitalism-lovers would like it to be so. But in any case people were already saying deliverism is dead anyway.
posted by fleacircus at 11:43 AM on November 8 [4 favorites]
When Trump was president, I got big checks deposited into my account. When Biden was president, I didn't, and now I have to spend 50% more on groceries. QED.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:55 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:55 AM on November 8 [8 favorites]
As a third generation American lawyer raised by two more, I wouldn’t put too much faith in anything being too far for the current Supreme Court majority, let alone the next, excepting Presidential self-pardon. Maybe.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:56 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:56 AM on November 8 [5 favorites]
Ah yes, “distance herself” from inflation, the bulk of the bite exacted by landlords jacking up rents and much of the rest thanks to Putin for fucking up energy markets with his hostile takeover attempt in Ukraine.
As I write this Harris needed 0.5% more in PA, WI, and 1% more in MI to hit 270.
Unfortunately this is deep in the non-analytical part of the population, so it was too big of an ask.
H L Mencken had our number 100 years ago.
posted by torokunai at 12:16 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]
As I write this Harris needed 0.5% more in PA, WI, and 1% more in MI to hit 270.
Unfortunately this is deep in the non-analytical part of the population, so it was too big of an ask.
H L Mencken had our number 100 years ago.
posted by torokunai at 12:16 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]
there's no legal way Trump can make himself president for life.
"Winkler notes the Supreme Court could try to interpret the 22nd Amendment to say that it only applies to presidents who have served consecutive terms, but even that would be a stretch based on its text."
they can and they will if they think it's in their best interests
anyway, the solution to this for him is to be elected to the Speaker of the House and ensure by extralegal means that the office of the President remains unfilled. Acting President Trump for Life.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:44 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]
"Winkler notes the Supreme Court could try to interpret the 22nd Amendment to say that it only applies to presidents who have served consecutive terms, but even that would be a stretch based on its text."
they can and they will if they think it's in their best interests
anyway, the solution to this for him is to be elected to the Speaker of the House and ensure by extralegal means that the office of the President remains unfilled. Acting President Trump for Life.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:44 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]
I'm sure the argument would be made re self-pardon that the Constitution doesn't explicitly forbid it, and if anyone finds it an unsavory act they're free to try to impeach.
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 12:48 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 12:48 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
I've really debated if I should post at all, and things may yet get better, but I really do love this community, and I have to post, in the off-chance that even one person hears what I'm saying and understands.
All of these analyses are partially true, but they are also partially false, people are fundamentally irrational agents. The sad truth is people voted, but didn't understand what they were voting for. We can and should absolutely fault the candidates, policies, the MSM, and the manosphere, or maybe we should finally grudgingly aknowledge that Trump and Trumpism is a force to be reckoned with, but what we cannot do is deny the facts.
This is about a frustrated electorate, and a political system that is failing. And unfortunately, there is no easy solution, because the 1% who control everything are quite content with the status quo, and the 99% who could change things believe in the lie that they are just frustrated billionaires in the making.
Now is the time to go underground, to be apolitical, to focus on survival. Hopefully, we're all still here in a few years, and we have the opportunity to try again. But if we don't, I just want to say that I love you all, and I'm sorry that it turned out this way.
If you want my $0.02, this isn't really about policy at all, and that the last best hope for our democracy is to run someone who isn't a politican at all, like Stephen Colbert, or John Stewart, or Bill Barr. But the Democratic party is a victim of it's own successes, and we may yet get lucky, because the economy is likely to fail, and so far no obvious successor to Trump has emerged.
TLDR: Trump is probably not ulimately the bogeyman we've made him out to be, because he's just a shallow narcissist suffering from dementia who wants to be liked. Vance is a smooth liar, but also extremely unlikeable. Musk is a bit more terrifying, but Rogan and his ilk are the ones who we should all fear.
We can win against Vance with a system candidate, maybe, but if they look outside of the box, we absolutely must look outside of the box too(Colbert, Stewart, Barr, etc).
posted by the_corpse_being_dragged at 12:59 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]
All of these analyses are partially true, but they are also partially false, people are fundamentally irrational agents. The sad truth is people voted, but didn't understand what they were voting for. We can and should absolutely fault the candidates, policies, the MSM, and the manosphere, or maybe we should finally grudgingly aknowledge that Trump and Trumpism is a force to be reckoned with, but what we cannot do is deny the facts.
This is about a frustrated electorate, and a political system that is failing. And unfortunately, there is no easy solution, because the 1% who control everything are quite content with the status quo, and the 99% who could change things believe in the lie that they are just frustrated billionaires in the making.
Now is the time to go underground, to be apolitical, to focus on survival. Hopefully, we're all still here in a few years, and we have the opportunity to try again. But if we don't, I just want to say that I love you all, and I'm sorry that it turned out this way.
If you want my $0.02, this isn't really about policy at all, and that the last best hope for our democracy is to run someone who isn't a politican at all, like Stephen Colbert, or John Stewart, or Bill Barr. But the Democratic party is a victim of it's own successes, and we may yet get lucky, because the economy is likely to fail, and so far no obvious successor to Trump has emerged.
TLDR: Trump is probably not ulimately the bogeyman we've made him out to be, because he's just a shallow narcissist suffering from dementia who wants to be liked. Vance is a smooth liar, but also extremely unlikeable. Musk is a bit more terrifying, but Rogan and his ilk are the ones who we should all fear.
We can win against Vance with a system candidate, maybe, but if they look outside of the box, we absolutely must look outside of the box too(Colbert, Stewart, Barr, etc).
posted by the_corpse_being_dragged at 12:59 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]
for your scrolling pleasure, i present ten hours of the doom song
posted by pyramid termite at 1:20 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by pyramid termite at 1:20 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
If Trump tried to make himself president for life
"It won't be so bad." "We can fix the damage." "We'll get to vote again, maybe."
All the protest voices who did everything in their power to make sure Harris failed have literally no plan to deal with what's coming, except a mix of weird-ass tough talk and optimistic finger-crossing that does nothing but make them look more foolish than they already are.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:57 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]
"It won't be so bad." "We can fix the damage." "We'll get to vote again, maybe."
All the protest voices who did everything in their power to make sure Harris failed have literally no plan to deal with what's coming, except a mix of weird-ass tough talk and optimistic finger-crossing that does nothing but make them look more foolish than they already are.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:57 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]
What even the fuck? Apparently someone is running a wide scale text campaign telling black people to report to the plantation, personally addressed and everything.
I am not surprised that such things are happening, gloaters gonna gloat and racist gloaters gonna gloat all kinds of racist, but I am surprised that it is both widespread and personalized. That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
posted by wierdo at 2:02 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]
I am not surprised that such things are happening, gloaters gonna gloat and racist gloaters gonna gloat all kinds of racist, but I am surprised that it is both widespread and personalized. That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
posted by wierdo at 2:02 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]
All the protest voices who did everything in their power to make sure Harris failed have literally no plan to deal with what's coming, except a mix of weird-ass tough talk and optimistic finger-crossing that does nothing but make them look more foolish than they already are.
I don't know exactly what you mean by "protest voices", but so far as I can tell, no one involved voted for Trump, and Harris needed no help failing.
posted by pattern juggler at 2:14 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]
I don't know exactly what you mean by "protest voices", but so far as I can tell, no one involved voted for Trump, and Harris needed no help failing.
posted by pattern juggler at 2:14 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]
From the Bulwark comes George Conway Explains: Felon in Chief.. I found his comments about near ten percent inflation and service station gaslines especially poignant as one who remembers those all too well. History is a war between a tiny billionaire class -- quite a few billion dollars richer these past few days -- and the rest of humanity. Wildfires and drought here, hurricanes upon hurricanes and flash floods there? The sheep look up to redlit smoke or dark clouds raining hard for days.There is no climate change. So drill baby drill. Burn baby burn. That is so willfully toxic stupid.
posted by y2karl at 2:18 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 2:18 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]
If SCOTUS is going to let Trump crown himself like that, why didn't they do that in 2021? Sure, you can say that with this election they'll treat it as a political mandate that a slight majority of the voting electorate wants him to do that, and acquiesce to the mob. Does anyone think that'll be the case by the midterms? Let alone by near the end of his term, when he's aged even further by the office, when the would-be pretenders to the throne start shanking each other to be the next caesar? Do you think most of his cronies will even want that, after he's churned through them?
I don't think trying to assess the situation soberly instead of jumping straight into dystopian YA fiction, which further demoralizes and invites inaction, is optimistic finger-crossing. Things get bad but often in unforeseen ways.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:20 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I don't think trying to assess the situation soberly instead of jumping straight into dystopian YA fiction, which further demoralizes and invites inaction, is optimistic finger-crossing. Things get bad but often in unforeseen ways.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:20 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Kamala Harris’ campaign didn’t ignore working class voters — The Biden administration was staunchly pro-labor, subsidized Obamacare and managed to avoid a recession. But Trump and Republicans sold resentment, and it worked.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:25 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 2:25 PM on November 8 [9 favorites]
Yeah, inflation, legislative grid-lock, and grievances/resentment targeting a scapegoated minority population. It's hard not seeing it through a 1930s lens.
posted by mazola at 2:30 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]
posted by mazola at 2:30 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]
Just.saw this on Threads:
What borders on stupidity?
Canada and Mexico.
posted by y2karl at 2:32 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
What borders on stupidity?
Canada and Mexico.
posted by y2karl at 2:32 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
I don't think Biden was ever going to be able to walk back from breaking the rail workers' strike and sell himself as pro-worker. Their demands were entirely reasonable, and would make the public safer. Biden forced them back to work with unreasonable and unsafe demands made by management, strictly to squeeze a bit more profit out of their labor, and the Palestine derailment made it clear how unreasonable a choice that was.
posted by pattern juggler at 2:37 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 2:37 PM on November 8 [13 favorites]
Trump is probably not ulimately the bogeyman we've made him out to be
The thing about all of our prognostications—not only those on the left hoping that he won't be as bad as we've feared, but those on the right who claim that his words are just words—is that we'll know very, very soon.
Because Bannon and others have said "yeah actually Project 2025 is the agenda", and Trump has a clear intention to undermine the civil service from day one, and he's reiterated his vow to deport tens of millions of people at any cost, "no price tag". We really aren't going to have to wait long to see.
Deportation isn't new, or even particularly un-American. In the 1930s, hundreds of thousands of Mexicans and Mexican Americans were deported or repatriated to Mexico, half of them US citizens. In 1954, hundreds of thousands more were deported by the federal government. The levels of deportations under Obama and especially Biden were and are higher than they were under Trump in 2016-2020. But all of it pales compared to the scale of deportations Trump has promised now.
Imagine what will be involved in deporting 21 million people, to take Trump's own figure. That's one in sixteen of everyone living in America today. Every deportation is going to involve detainments, seizures of property, disruption of families and social groups and workplaces. Police violence, possibly military violence, from the very start. They won't have to get all the way to twenty million for the impact to be devastating.
And it all starts in only a few months' time.
posted by rory at 2:45 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
The thing about all of our prognostications—not only those on the left hoping that he won't be as bad as we've feared, but those on the right who claim that his words are just words—is that we'll know very, very soon.
Because Bannon and others have said "yeah actually Project 2025 is the agenda", and Trump has a clear intention to undermine the civil service from day one, and he's reiterated his vow to deport tens of millions of people at any cost, "no price tag". We really aren't going to have to wait long to see.
Deportation isn't new, or even particularly un-American. In the 1930s, hundreds of thousands of Mexicans and Mexican Americans were deported or repatriated to Mexico, half of them US citizens. In 1954, hundreds of thousands more were deported by the federal government. The levels of deportations under Obama and especially Biden were and are higher than they were under Trump in 2016-2020. But all of it pales compared to the scale of deportations Trump has promised now.
Imagine what will be involved in deporting 21 million people, to take Trump's own figure. That's one in sixteen of everyone living in America today. Every deportation is going to involve detainments, seizures of property, disruption of families and social groups and workplaces. Police violence, possibly military violence, from the very start. They won't have to get all the way to twenty million for the impact to be devastating.
And it all starts in only a few months' time.
posted by rory at 2:45 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
If you want my $0.02, this isn't really about policy at all, and that the last best hope for our democracy is to run someone who isn't a politican at all, like Stephen Colbert, or John Stewart, or Bill Barr. But the Democratic party is a victim of it's own successes, and we may yet get lucky, because the economy is likely to fail, and so far no obvious successor to Trump has emerged.
I am not an insider or thing-knower of any kind but my impression is that loyalty to those who have in some sense paid their dues is a big thing for current elected Dems at the federal level. If this impression is accurate, running outsider candidates is not necessarily impossible for Dems but it goes against their predisposition.
(Are you talking about some other Bill Barr who is not Trump's former AG?)
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 2:53 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I am not an insider or thing-knower of any kind but my impression is that loyalty to those who have in some sense paid their dues is a big thing for current elected Dems at the federal level. If this impression is accurate, running outsider candidates is not necessarily impossible for Dems but it goes against their predisposition.
(Are you talking about some other Bill Barr who is not Trump's former AG?)
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 2:53 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I wish their was an "emphasize" option instead of "favorite", because I 100% co-sign a lot of comments but I utterly loathe what they are pointing out.
posted by ishmael at 2:54 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]
posted by ishmael at 2:54 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]
Got to imagine that should be Bill Burr.
posted by sagc at 2:55 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]
posted by sagc at 2:55 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]
aw jinx
posted by ishmael at 2:56 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by ishmael at 2:56 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
Stephen A. Smith is the superior celebrity outsider choice for president anyway
posted by Apocryphon at 3:02 PM on November 8
posted by Apocryphon at 3:02 PM on November 8
Gloves off by the Scathing Atheist.
https://pca.st/episode/ba535f49-f3ac-4d51-8849-c4ee5fa79073?t=65
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:26 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
https://pca.st/episode/ba535f49-f3ac-4d51-8849-c4ee5fa79073?t=65
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:26 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
What borders on stupidity?
Canada and Mexico.
Mexico effectively destroyed it's own federal judiciary a few days ago, so don't discount it in the inner part of the stupidity sandwich.
posted by Omon Ra at 3:28 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
Canada and Mexico.
Mexico effectively destroyed it's own federal judiciary a few days ago, so don't discount it in the inner part of the stupidity sandwich.
posted by Omon Ra at 3:28 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
Trump Is Never Going To Jail.
Next time someone says the phrase "nobody is above the law" remind them that no, some criminals absolutely are, and that's a fact of the world we live in.
posted by lock robster at 3:53 PM on November 8 [12 favorites]
Next time someone says the phrase "nobody is above the law" remind them that no, some criminals absolutely are, and that's a fact of the world we live in.
posted by lock robster at 3:53 PM on November 8 [12 favorites]
What even the fuck? Apparently someone is running a wide scale text campaign telling black people to report to the plantation, personally addressed and everything.
I am not surprised that such things are happening, gloaters gonna gloat and racist gloaters gonna gloat all kinds of racist, but I am surprised that it is both widespread and personalized. That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
There's someone in the GOP who is planning on being their Beria. The message is bad, the targeting is worse. There's a fucking list for this shit, so who knows what other groups have order typed up and ready to use. Trolling for now, but it starts with that.
posted by Slackermagee at 4:04 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]
I am not surprised that such things are happening, gloaters gonna gloat and racist gloaters gonna gloat all kinds of racist, but I am surprised that it is both widespread and personalized. That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
There's someone in the GOP who is planning on being their Beria. The message is bad, the targeting is worse. There's a fucking list for this shit, so who knows what other groups have order typed up and ready to use. Trolling for now, but it starts with that.
posted by Slackermagee at 4:04 PM on November 8 [4 favorites]
planning on being their Beria.
I like to comparison, it's not perfect but it's viable because Beria was eventually expendable, his ply in trade,organized Katyn and had no problem getting rid Yezhov. problem is is their churning out little statuettes and pins and erecting statues to the guy and it's the 2020s.
I think a Ha-ward Hunt would suffice. thing is is Nixon didn't really trust him therefore trusted to much.
ohhhh my
Military officials reportedly discuss how to handle illegal orders from Trump.
"Officials are now gaming out various scenarios as they prepare for an overhaul of the Pentagon."
posted by clavdivs at 4:27 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
I like to comparison, it's not perfect but it's viable because Beria was eventually expendable, his ply in trade,organized Katyn and had no problem getting rid Yezhov. problem is is their churning out little statuettes and pins and erecting statues to the guy and it's the 2020s.
I think a Ha-ward Hunt would suffice. thing is is Nixon didn't really trust him therefore trusted to much.
ohhhh my
Military officials reportedly discuss how to handle illegal orders from Trump.
"Officials are now gaming out various scenarios as they prepare for an overhaul of the Pentagon."
posted by clavdivs at 4:27 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
When Trump was president, I got big checks deposited into my account. When Biden was president, I didn't, and now I have to spend 50% more on groceries. QED.
This, unfortunately, is extremely legit. Maybe it's because he's an idiot who's gone bankrupt like six fucking times, but Trump seems to understand the existential threat to most Americans of having no money. When the shutdown happened, it was like 48 hours later that we all got $2000 checks. Now, understand, Trump fucked up basically every other thing on covid and got hundreds of thousands of Americans killed, probably, but he did understand that people need money.
Conversely, when Biden took office, there was...a bit of a pregnant pause between when he said $2000 checks were coming and when they actually did, and when they showed up don't you know they were for $1400! Because "the last guy" had advanced you a $600 check. So President A Day Late and a Dollar Short. And it was downhill from there.
Please understand: I can read a fucking newspaper article, and I know damn well how bad Trump 2.0 will be. But do I also understand why people thought Biden sucked? Yes.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:30 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]
This, unfortunately, is extremely legit. Maybe it's because he's an idiot who's gone bankrupt like six fucking times, but Trump seems to understand the existential threat to most Americans of having no money. When the shutdown happened, it was like 48 hours later that we all got $2000 checks. Now, understand, Trump fucked up basically every other thing on covid and got hundreds of thousands of Americans killed, probably, but he did understand that people need money.
Conversely, when Biden took office, there was...a bit of a pregnant pause between when he said $2000 checks were coming and when they actually did, and when they showed up don't you know they were for $1400! Because "the last guy" had advanced you a $600 check. So President A Day Late and a Dollar Short. And it was downhill from there.
Please understand: I can read a fucking newspaper article, and I know damn well how bad Trump 2.0 will be. But do I also understand why people thought Biden sucked? Yes.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:30 PM on November 8 [21 favorites]
“Beyond the Blame: Fighting for Each Other in the Face of Fascism,” Kelly Hayes, Organizing My Thoughts, 08 November 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 4:30 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 4:30 PM on November 8 [3 favorites]
That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
Wonder if this is pulling from some data breach? I don’t know where you’d go to look up phone number and name by race. The messages are going to be like $0.01 each so I’m not convinced it requires an especially professional operation, but unnerving.
posted by atoxyl at 4:51 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Wonder if this is pulling from some data breach? I don’t know where you’d go to look up phone number and name by race. The messages are going to be like $0.01 each so I’m not convinced it requires an especially professional operation, but unnerving.
posted by atoxyl at 4:51 PM on November 8 [2 favorites]
Wonder if this is pulling from some data breach? I don’t know where you’d go to look up phone number and name by race. The messages are going to be like $0.01 each so I’m not convinced it requires an especially professional operation, but unnerving.
Plenty of campaign PACs have this kind of demographic data. They use it for voter targeting. When you get tons of text messages during the campaign they are texting you because their demographic analysis thinks you're the right target, including your race and gender.
This message almost certainly came from someone involved with the trump campaign or an assoicated pac. The worst fucking people in the world won. God it sucks so bad.
posted by dis_integration at 5:11 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]
Plenty of campaign PACs have this kind of demographic data. They use it for voter targeting. When you get tons of text messages during the campaign they are texting you because their demographic analysis thinks you're the right target, including your race and gender.
This message almost certainly came from someone involved with the trump campaign or an assoicated pac. The worst fucking people in the world won. God it sucks so bad.
posted by dis_integration at 5:11 PM on November 8 [8 favorites]
What's most alarming is that a lot of kids apparently got those texts, so unless they were kids making political donations a political PAC getting hacked doesn't entirely explain it.
posted by coffeecat at 5:22 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]
posted by coffeecat at 5:22 PM on November 8 [7 favorites]
When you get tons of text messages during the campaign they are texting you because their demographic analysis thinks you're the right target, including your race and gender.
Yep, once I started spending a lot of time at our local Indian Health Center I suddenly started getting election texts addressing me “as a Native American” (my partner is native, I am not). Jill Stein was recently sending me flyers promising she’d protect tribal water supplies (lol).
posted by brook horse at 6:04 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
Yep, once I started spending a lot of time at our local Indian Health Center I suddenly started getting election texts addressing me “as a Native American” (my partner is native, I am not). Jill Stein was recently sending me flyers promising she’d protect tribal water supplies (lol).
posted by brook horse at 6:04 PM on November 8 [6 favorites]
Wonder if this is pulling from some data breach? I don’t know where you’d go to look up phone number and name by race.
It's very likely that they're getting the data from Palantir; that would be my guess, anyway.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 6:08 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
It's very likely that they're getting the data from Palantir; that would be my guess, anyway.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 6:08 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
Wonder if this is pulling from some data breach? I don’t know where you’d go to look up phone number and name by race.
I do; it's called targeted advertising lists, and it's something that Democrats didn't bother really trying to make illegal, because man, was that useful to corporations! And to political campaigns! Except, now, of course, it can get used for a terror list. And possibly a roundup list.
One thing the Republicans did correctly is they thought that gun lists might be used against people for roundups, far in advance of it being an actual problem. So they worked to make it as illegal as possible to make and compile those lists. And now it's still hard to have those lists of everyone who owns a gun.
If the Democrats actually cared about the minority populations they claim to, they could have made targeting advertising groups by race illegal. But they didn't. And now people are going to get fucked over.
Giving lip services to talking about identities, but not actually protecting people on the basis of those identities, is one of the reasons why people get alienated.
posted by corb at 6:31 PM on November 8 [22 favorites]
I do; it's called targeted advertising lists, and it's something that Democrats didn't bother really trying to make illegal, because man, was that useful to corporations! And to political campaigns! Except, now, of course, it can get used for a terror list. And possibly a roundup list.
One thing the Republicans did correctly is they thought that gun lists might be used against people for roundups, far in advance of it being an actual problem. So they worked to make it as illegal as possible to make and compile those lists. And now it's still hard to have those lists of everyone who owns a gun.
If the Democrats actually cared about the minority populations they claim to, they could have made targeting advertising groups by race illegal. But they didn't. And now people are going to get fucked over.
Giving lip services to talking about identities, but not actually protecting people on the basis of those identities, is one of the reasons why people get alienated.
posted by corb at 6:31 PM on November 8 [22 favorites]
Tressie McMillan Cottom posted a vid responding to an ask about what was her reasoning why she had written in NYT that Trump would win, and her main observation that there's a misidentification to what "the economy" meant to Trump voters, relating to how he managed to turn consumer and cultural markers into political identity which doesn't always map directly to race as understood.
posted by cendawanita at 8:05 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 8:05 PM on November 8 [10 favorites]
For people looking for a well-reasoned discussion about the election, watch the Weekly Show podcast with Jon Stewart and Heather Cox Richardson (60 minute YouTube). See also Richardson's newsletter podcast, Letters From An American. After watching the interview, I'm certainly going to read her recent book.
posted by JDC8 at 10:57 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]
posted by JDC8 at 10:57 PM on November 8 [5 favorites]
If Trump has an interior monologue, he should try using it more often than the "never" that seems apparent.
posted by pwnguin at 10:59 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
posted by pwnguin at 10:59 PM on November 8 [1 favorite]
via Daring Fireball:
Hunter S. Thompson, writing in September 1972, a little over one month ahead of Nixon’s landslide reelection:
...and again via Daring Fireball - - How It Went - - a very touching election-adjacent story with my highest recommendation.
posted by fairmettle at 12:20 AM on November 9 [21 favorites]
Hunter S. Thompson, writing in September 1972, a little over one month ahead of Nixon’s landslide reelection:
The polls also indicate that Nixon will get a comfortable majority of the Youth Vote. And that he might carry all fifty states.
Well … maybe so. This may be the year when we finally come face to face with ourselves: finally just lay back and say it — that we are really just a nation of 220 million used car salesmen with all the money we need to buy guns, and no qualms at all about killing anybody else in the world who tries to make us uncomfortable.
The tragedy of all this is that George McGovern, for all his mistakes and all his imprecise talk about “new politics” and “honesty in government”, is one of the few men who’ve run for President of the United States in this century who really understands what a fantastic monument to all the best instincts of the human race this country might have been, if we could have kept it out of the hands of greedy little hustlers like Richard Nixon.
McGovern made some stupid mistakes, but in context they seem almost frivolous compared to the things Richard Nixon does every day of his life, on purpose, as a matter of policy and a perfect expression of everything he stands for.
Jesus! Where will it end?
...and again via Daring Fireball - - How It Went - - a very touching election-adjacent story with my highest recommendation.
posted by fairmettle at 12:20 AM on November 9 [21 favorites]
Via Ruwa Romman, disaggregated voter data. Just behind the Jewish voters (at 66%), 63% Muslim voters went for Harris, disaggregated by religion. Sample: ~120k respondents.
And disaggregation of the Latino vote, shows it's Cuban voters who went majority Trump compared to the others.
I guess I'll also stay on the lookout for the Arab-American vote tally stuff when it's up.
Anyway, not being American, it's not me who's being wronged when ppl were cussing these demographics out and hoping and praying that the worst of what the Palestinians and Central and South Americans refugees suffered is visited upon them. So I'm fine. Have to live with whatever foreign policy impact, but otherwise.
posted by cendawanita at 2:19 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]
And disaggregation of the Latino vote, shows it's Cuban voters who went majority Trump compared to the others.
I guess I'll also stay on the lookout for the Arab-American vote tally stuff when it's up.
Anyway, not being American, it's not me who's being wronged when ppl were cussing these demographics out and hoping and praying that the worst of what the Palestinians and Central and South Americans refugees suffered is visited upon them. So I'm fine. Have to live with whatever foreign policy impact, but otherwise.
posted by cendawanita at 2:19 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]
another postmortem fwiw...
daron acemoglu (nobel economist who knows his autocrats): "Years of turmoil and uncertainty await us. I have also come to believe that this is not Trump's win. It is the Democrats who have lost this election. This is not because Biden stayed on as a candidate despite his age. It is not because Kamala Harris is not qualified (I believe she's amply qualified). It is because of Democrats' campaign. Dems have been losing the American workers and did nothing to regain them in this election."
---
a few things first:---
*speaking of surveillance capitalism, which now looks to merge with a christofascist state and morph into the military industrial complex (speaking of palantir): Anthropic, Palantir, Amazon team up on defense AI
meanwhile...
-Scoop: Elon Musk joined Trump's call with Zelensky
-Breakingviews: Elon Musk's biggest conflict is with Donald Trump
highlighting, above all, the massive amounts of grift on the line, as matt levine notes...
The Trump Trades Worked - "I don't think we've ever had a situation where the president of the United States makes official pronouncements on a platform where he also sells ads."
> The thing about all of our prognostications—not only those on the left hoping that he won't be as bad as we've feared, but those on the right who claim that his words are just words—is that we'll know very, very soon.
posted by kliuless at 4:04 AM on November 9 [28 favorites]
daron acemoglu (nobel economist who knows his autocrats): "Years of turmoil and uncertainty await us. I have also come to believe that this is not Trump's win. It is the Democrats who have lost this election. This is not because Biden stayed on as a candidate despite his age. It is not because Kamala Harris is not qualified (I believe she's amply qualified). It is because of Democrats' campaign. Dems have been losing the American workers and did nothing to regain them in this election."
a few things first:
- note the NYT is setting the table to feast on dems in disarray/circular firing squad narratives: Pelosi Laments Biden's Late Exit and the Lack of an 'Open Primary'
- echoing bernie, yes, acemoglu needlessly throws wokeness under the bus (like francis fukuyama* -- yet i'd be inclined to let him into the coalition of anti-incumbent backlash the next time it comes around too? it's a big tent ;)
- but acemoglu does acknowledge the biden/harris admin has, actually, been pro-labor...
For a while it looked like Dems could still win elections with support from Silicon Valley, minorities, some portions of organized labor and the professional class in large cities. But this was never a healthy coalition, and even organized labor wasn’t going to remain faithful for long.which might sound familiar?
This coalition made Dems increasingly alienated from workers and the middle class in much of the country, especially in smaller cities and the South.
The message was loud and clear in 2016, and all of the soul-searching that followed was healthy. It was part of the reason why Biden adopted a pro-worker industrial strategy.
Biden’s economy delivered for the working class in terms of jobs and strengthening the industrial base of the country. Wages at the bottom rose rapidly. Policy started moving towards the views of the American workers on immigration, protectionism, support for unions and public investment.
And yet, I fear that Dem activists and the establishment never fully internalized the woes of the workers and never made enough of an effort to bring them back to the fold. They sounded distant and detached...
It seemed at first that Harris-Walz may try to change that,[alas] emphasizing bolstering up the middle class and patriotism, in an effort to appeal to the working class deserting the party. A true effort in that direction would have been commendable, and if credible, perhaps win the election.
But at the end, the campaign focused on abortion and other issues appealing to the base. The main effort to broaden the base came from using Liz Cheney to appeal to suburban women --- on abortion.
Of course, abortion is a critical issue. But focusing on it was never going to win the working class, and certainly not the working-class men.
On the economy, Dems can talk about opportunity and jobs (which they need to do). But they never distanced themselves from the Silicon Valley and the global business elite (but ironically, Silicon Valley started leaving them!)
I fear that, now, Trump and Vance’s Republican Party will be the main home for workers, especially manufacturing workers and those in smaller cities.
I am saddened and fearful for the United States, and I am deeply saddened about the Democratic Party --- unless this time it gets the message can truly change.
This is not just essential for the Democratic Party but for US democracy...
I watched Hungary's democracy dissolve into authoritarianism as a member of parliament − and I see troubling parallels in Trumpism and its appeal to workers - "How can strongmen get away with these antidemocratic politics? If there is one lesson from Hungary, it is this: Democracy is not sustainable in a divided society where many are left behind economically. The real power of authoritarian populists like Trump and Orban lies not in the institutions they hijack but in the novel electoral support coalition they create. They bring together two types of supporters. Some hardcore, authoritarian-right voters are motivated by bigotry and hatred rooted in their fear of globalization's cultural threats. However, the most successful right-wing populist forces integrate an outer layer of primarily working-class voters hurt by globalization's economic threats. Throughout the 20th century, Democrats in the U.S. and left-of-center parties in Europe provided a political home for those fearing economic insecurity. This fostered a political system that engendered equality and a healthy social fabric, giving people reason to care for liberal democratic institutions. However, when the economy fails to deliver, disillusionment with capitalism morphs into an apathy toward liberal democracy. If the liberal center appears uncaring, authoritarian populists can mobilize voters against both the cultural and economic threats posed by globalization. As I showed in my book, neglecting this suffering was the democratic center's politically lethal failure. By today, Hungary's liberal and left-of-center parties have retreated to the biggest cities, leaving their former provincial political strongholds up for grabs for the radical right. The same is taking place in the U.S., with the Republicans becoming a party of the working class and nonmetropolitan America."---
*speaking of surveillance capitalism, which now looks to merge with a christofascist state and morph into the military industrial complex (speaking of palantir): Anthropic, Palantir, Amazon team up on defense AI
meanwhile...
-Scoop: Elon Musk joined Trump's call with Zelensky
-Breakingviews: Elon Musk's biggest conflict is with Donald Trump
highlighting, above all, the massive amounts of grift on the line, as matt levine notes...
The Trump Trades Worked - "I don't think we've ever had a situation where the president of the United States makes official pronouncements on a platform where he also sells ads."
I think of Musk as the great legal realist of our time, a guy who is unusually strong-willed and clever about seeing rules he doesn’t like and saying “well what can they really do about it?” I was driven somewhat insane by his efforts to get out of his merger agreement with Twitter because he didn’t feel like doing it anymore. His reported drug use would seem to violate federal policies about SpaceX’s government contracts, but what are they gonna do, cancel the contracts? Tesla Inc. gave him a pay package that, a judge ruled, violated Delaware law, so he moved Tesla to Texas to get a more congenial law. Most people do not get to choose which laws apply to them, but Musk is evidence that, with enough money and willpower, maybe you can. And now he has a more congenial president.also btw...
- Who are the billionaires, business leaders who might shape a second Trump presidency? - "John Paulson, a hedge-fund billionaire, endorsed Trump in 2024 and has backed him since 2016, Politico reports. According to Bloomberg, Trump has floated Paulson's name privately as a potential Treasury secretary."
- Wall Street Luminaries Jockey for Influence on Next Trump Administration - "Howard Lutnick, the Cantor Fitzgerald chief executive officer who has become Trump's headhunter in chief, has been talking for weeks with heavyweights such as Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan, who are offering input on who could fill key roles. One person who worked in Trump's prior administration said far more business leaders are raising their hands for deputy and assistant secretary roles than in 2016. A veritable clubhouse of Wall Street executives—even those who eschewed Trump in the past—are jockeying for influence and eagerly gearing up for the prospect of lower taxes and a dealmaking revival."
- Wall Street drafts Trump wish lists over bank capital, SEC regulation - "The banking and finance industries are rapidly drawing up wish lists for lighter regulation under President Donald Trump's incoming administration as Wall Street sees a window of opportunity to influence policy. Numerous financial trade groups are working on detailed lists to hand to Trump's transition team, according to four industry sources who asked not to be identified. That follows weeks of outreach from Trump's team to industry groups, lawyers and lobbyists in preparing for a potential White House return in 2025, according to three sources familiar with the effort. Some of the trade groups want to deliver the wish lists urgently, two of the sources said. The speed at which the transition team and industry are moving to identify potential regulatory relief underscores how aggressively the new administration could move."
- Trump Inc.: How a Second Administration Could Rewrite the Way America Does Business - "Trump has criticized Gensler’s work, saying he would fire him on 'day one.' Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association trade group, said Wednesday that she looked forward to seeing that happen. The new administration will likely appoint leadership friendlier to the financial-services industry than Gensler and Lina Khan, chair of the Federal Trade Commission, said Brett Palmer, president of the Small Business Investor Alliance, which lobbies on behalf of smaller private-equity firms. 'The private markets are pretty excited' about the prospect, he said."
- Trump's New Wall Street Watchdogs Are Coming—Likely With a Lot Less Bite - "Executives are betting the new watchdogs will back off efforts to make banks hold bigger capital cushions and strengthen consumer protections. A friendlier stance is expected toward crypto and bank consolidation, as well as new payment alternatives that could compete with banks."
- Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now - "Now, I also started this column by suggesting that perhaps some insiders do know the results at 5 p.m., but don't trade, because that seems unethical and/or because it's not worth it. In a world of large popular normalized liquid lucrative prediction markets, that might change. For one thing, it would be worth it. Would it be unethical? I mean, probably your campaign or news organization would think so. But my general impression is that most people in the prediction-markets world love insider trading..." (Prediction Markets for the Win: "Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for... In an email, he told the Journal that he had commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbor effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, 'were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!'")
Those principles can’t automatically enact themselves; they only work if the human actors in the system choose to follow them and to demand that others follow them. They persist because the people constrained by them believe themselves to be constrained by them. The Constitution, separation of powers, religious liberty, freedom of the press, an independent judiciary, the rule of law, equality of all citizens: There is a complacent sense in America that these things are independent self-operative checks on power. But they aren't. They are checks on power only as far as they command the collective loyalty of those in power; they require a governing class that cares about law and government and American tradition, rather than personal power and revenge. Their magic is fragile, and can disappear if people who don't believe in it gain power.i worry the latest iteration of the destructionists -- lee atwater >> newt gingrich >> karl rove >> curtis yarvin??? -- are ready to detonate the last crumbling pillars of civilization we have left.
> The thing about all of our prognostications—not only those on the left hoping that he won't be as bad as we've feared, but those on the right who claim that his words are just words—is that we'll know very, very soon.
- How Trump's victory could change abortion rights in America - "Trump in August said he had no plans to enforce the Comstock Act. But anti-abortion advocates and people in Trump's close circle, including his running mate, Vice President-elect JD Vance, have urged the opposite... That issue could end up at the Supreme Court, whose justices have expressed openness to the idea that the Comstock Act could ban abortion. Earlier this year, Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas repeatedly invoked the Comstock Act during oral arguments in a case regarding medication abortion."
- Americans see immigration as top issue for Trump to tackle, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds - "Asked what Trump's top priority should be in the first 100 days following his Jan. 20 inauguration, 25% of respondents said he should prioritize immigration, a much larger share than any other issue. Some 14% of respondents said Trump should focus on income inequality, 12% said taxes and smaller shares picked healthcare, crime, jobs or the environment. Some 82% of respondents in the poll considered it likely that Trump would order mass deportations, including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans. Many said they are concerned about the expected policy, including 82% of Democrats and 40% of independents. About nine in 10 Republicans said they were not concerned Trump could order mass deportations."
posted by kliuless at 4:04 AM on November 9 [28 favorites]
Part of the reason that the dems emphasis on identity politics/wokeness/were the not racist party is that it rings hollow—-racist trump didn’t arm a genocide against brown people, Biden and the dems have.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:29 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:29 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
another postmortem fwiw...
A core problem with all of these postmortems is that they're treating this election as some neutral thing, and it wasn't. Like it was in some way Biden's or Harris's to lose. That the story of Trump winning is a story of how he got it right and Democrats got it wrong.
But it wasn't. Economic sentiment is terrible. And I get some pushback from other polisci folks about this because unemployment is low and growth is okay, but the way we think about elections hasn't had to deal with serious inflation in 40 years and I think we just forgot how intolerant voters are of it.
The right story about this election is that this was a great year for Republicans, this was a year kinda like 1992, and that Trump almost blew it. If the Republicans had run someone like McCain, they'd have won Virginia, and we wouldn't be waiting on Arizona, and they might well have won or at least come frighteningly close in MN and NJ. If the Republicans had a normal human on the top of the ticket, they'd have defeated Slotkin and Baldwin and Rosen. If they'd managed to avoid magahat weirdos, they'd have soundly defeated Gallego and would have won the governor's race in NC.
This wasn't a sure-thing that Harris blew. Trump was the only reason this race was ever close to start with.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:38 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]
A core problem with all of these postmortems is that they're treating this election as some neutral thing, and it wasn't. Like it was in some way Biden's or Harris's to lose. That the story of Trump winning is a story of how he got it right and Democrats got it wrong.
But it wasn't. Economic sentiment is terrible. And I get some pushback from other polisci folks about this because unemployment is low and growth is okay, but the way we think about elections hasn't had to deal with serious inflation in 40 years and I think we just forgot how intolerant voters are of it.
The right story about this election is that this was a great year for Republicans, this was a year kinda like 1992, and that Trump almost blew it. If the Republicans had run someone like McCain, they'd have won Virginia, and we wouldn't be waiting on Arizona, and they might well have won or at least come frighteningly close in MN and NJ. If the Republicans had a normal human on the top of the ticket, they'd have defeated Slotkin and Baldwin and Rosen. If they'd managed to avoid magahat weirdos, they'd have soundly defeated Gallego and would have won the governor's race in NC.
This wasn't a sure-thing that Harris blew. Trump was the only reason this race was ever close to start with.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:38 AM on November 9 [20 favorites]
Part of the reason that the dems emphasis on identity politics/wokeness/were the not racist party is that it rings hollow—-racist trump didn’t arm a genocide against brown people, Biden and the dems have.
posted by MisantropicPainforest
You might want to hold off this kind of rhetoric until you see what Trump does re Gaza. Not to mention to the USA itself.
posted by Pouteria at 4:40 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest
You might want to hold off this kind of rhetoric until you see what Trump does re Gaza. Not to mention to the USA itself.
posted by Pouteria at 4:40 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]
(Are you talking about some other Bill Barr who is not Trump's former AG?)
I suspect given context of Colbert & Stewart they meant Bill Burr.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:42 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
I suspect given context of Colbert & Stewart they meant Bill Burr.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:42 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
You might want to hold off this kind of rhetoric until you see what Trump does re Gaza.
He does have a high (low???) bar to clear for sure. For how much of a wildcard he is, I wouldn't want to keep pursuing this rhetorical tactic (as I can't even project which way his selfishness but also ego and lack of patience and disinterest might yield), because Palestine in Biden's time has been so decimated that even a bare minimum would be sufficiently hard to counter in the low-info voters as a win. 2.5 months to go to January, and the current US under Biden has just indicated in diplomatic speak that ceasefire is dead (they've told Qatar that Hamas is no longer welcome. So I guess... They'll be speaking to local djinns), even as we have about a weekend to go before the supposed deadline in that leaked letter threatening Israel for not giving aid (even as northern Gaza is pretty much ethnically cleansed, this isn't me being hyperbolic - civilians are not allowed to return and remainders are tagged as terrorists now) is up.
The last year has shown me any kind of position like the above is supposedly interested in making sure Trump winning. I'm not. I'm as fucked in a different way. Biden is just making sure he's doing all he can to offer Trump the winning story. (Neo-cons and pro-Ukraine Dems are already in advance congratulating the expected DOD pick apparently - so normalization of the supposed Big Bad continues apace).
posted by cendawanita at 5:02 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]
He does have a high (low???) bar to clear for sure. For how much of a wildcard he is, I wouldn't want to keep pursuing this rhetorical tactic (as I can't even project which way his selfishness but also ego and lack of patience and disinterest might yield), because Palestine in Biden's time has been so decimated that even a bare minimum would be sufficiently hard to counter in the low-info voters as a win. 2.5 months to go to January, and the current US under Biden has just indicated in diplomatic speak that ceasefire is dead (they've told Qatar that Hamas is no longer welcome. So I guess... They'll be speaking to local djinns), even as we have about a weekend to go before the supposed deadline in that leaked letter threatening Israel for not giving aid (even as northern Gaza is pretty much ethnically cleansed, this isn't me being hyperbolic - civilians are not allowed to return and remainders are tagged as terrorists now) is up.
The last year has shown me any kind of position like the above is supposedly interested in making sure Trump winning. I'm not. I'm as fucked in a different way. Biden is just making sure he's doing all he can to offer Trump the winning story. (Neo-cons and pro-Ukraine Dems are already in advance congratulating the expected DOD pick apparently - so normalization of the supposed Big Bad continues apace).
posted by cendawanita at 5:02 AM on November 9 [7 favorites]
(but I will stand by my repeated assertion that huh, it sure did look like Biden wanted Harris to lose. If you've missed it I mostly do just say it in the Palestine threads.)
posted by cendawanita at 5:05 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 5:05 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
Black Threads/Black Twitter has been utterly fascinating and sad. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this level of disillusionment aimed at non-voters, single issue voters, and protest voters. And white women.
I don’t know if it will translate to a further reach in the real world. But if it does, it’s going to be hard.
posted by girlmightlive at 5:07 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
I don’t know if it will translate to a further reach in the real world. But if it does, it’s going to be hard.
posted by girlmightlive at 5:07 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
I’m under no impression that Trump is good for the Palestinians, but lots of voters use simple heuristics, and lots of voters see Dem hypocrisy and republican straightforwardness, even tho what the dems are saying is good and republicans are saying is bad, and don’t like the obvious hallow pandering.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:08 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:08 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
Ah yes, Trump the principled straight shooter who never panders hollowly. Look at this upside down bible! We love Jesus, don't we folks? Many people say he was greatest ever.
Fucking hell, anything to piss on everyone who isn't a doctrinaire leftist eh? Down to regurgitating Fox talking points. Keep it up, it's been working great. Really doing wonders for solidarity.
I'd link Tim Kreider's cartoon on the topic from a previous cycle, but thepaincomics.com is offline now. Sign of the times.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:23 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
Fucking hell, anything to piss on everyone who isn't a doctrinaire leftist eh? Down to regurgitating Fox talking points. Keep it up, it's been working great. Really doing wonders for solidarity.
I'd link Tim Kreider's cartoon on the topic from a previous cycle, but thepaincomics.com is offline now. Sign of the times.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:23 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
lots of voters see Dem hypocrisy and republican straightforwardness, even tho what the dems are saying is good and republicans are saying is bad,
...talking with USians in the US, this is the impression I get. And, one the one hand, OK, I hear you, but on the other - Trump will be a positive force for maybe 5% of the citizenry. Obviously (I thought), yes he seems ridiculous and inoffensive in his fecklessness but just because the rattlesnake/scorpion/pick your poisonous aggressive creature seems harmless enough... he's still a con man and a rapist. And he's not going to do anything net positive. It's baked in. Ask Giuliani ask any of hundreds probably thousands, how alining themselves with Trump has worked out for them? The house always wins and Trump always fucks everyone up.
(the issue of Gaza is particularly sad as, unless they have a billionaire who will buy Trump's indulgences, I can see no reason Trump will so much as think twice about their mass murder. Hell, I expect he will try and find a way to profit off it - it's what he does. )
Unfortunately, it looks very much like we are in for interesting times.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:24 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
...talking with USians in the US, this is the impression I get. And, one the one hand, OK, I hear you, but on the other - Trump will be a positive force for maybe 5% of the citizenry. Obviously (I thought), yes he seems ridiculous and inoffensive in his fecklessness but just because the rattlesnake/scorpion/pick your poisonous aggressive creature seems harmless enough... he's still a con man and a rapist. And he's not going to do anything net positive. It's baked in. Ask Giuliani ask any of hundreds probably thousands, how alining themselves with Trump has worked out for them? The house always wins and Trump always fucks everyone up.
(the issue of Gaza is particularly sad as, unless they have a billionaire who will buy Trump's indulgences, I can see no reason Trump will so much as think twice about their mass murder. Hell, I expect he will try and find a way to profit off it - it's what he does. )
Unfortunately, it looks very much like we are in for interesting times.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:24 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
I can see no reason Trump will so much as think twice about their mass murder.
He'll think about it once when the Christian Dominionists and Clash of Civilizations atavists around him move hastening it to the top of their foreign policy agenda.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:33 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
He'll think about it once when the Christian Dominionists and Clash of Civilizations atavists around him move hastening it to the top of their foreign policy agenda.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:33 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
It’s a Fox News talking point that voters are upset with democrats hypocrisy and inconsistency?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:43 AM on November 9
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:43 AM on November 9
Yes. And that Republicans are honest, straightforward, are for everyday people's kitchen table issues and for main street over those two-faced elitists, etc.
Were reproductive rights, human rights for LGBTQ people, avoiding mass deportations, preventing deletion of entire arms of the Federal regulatory apparatus all hollow pandering?
You really do your username honor. I have no idea why I bother.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:46 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]
Were reproductive rights, human rights for LGBTQ people, avoiding mass deportations, preventing deletion of entire arms of the Federal regulatory apparatus all hollow pandering?
You really do your username honor. I have no idea why I bother.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:46 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]
I’m telling you what many voters think, which is what surveys show and this election just showed.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:51 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:51 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
lots of voters see Dem hypocrisy and republican straightforwardness
I got every word in that sentence! He's a straight talker!
posted by flabdablet at 5:51 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
I got every word in that sentence! He's a straight talker!
posted by flabdablet at 5:51 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
If you haven't read enough takes (hot, cold or otherwise) attempting to explain the results Michael Tomasky in The New Republic writes persuasively on the state of US media. It might not be a comprehensive answer but you would be foolish not to take its argument seriously.
posted by deeker at 5:54 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]
posted by deeker at 5:54 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]
Voters also think the Trump-appointed judges who banned Roe were appointed by Biden.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:04 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:04 AM on November 9 [8 favorites]
Dem says: “I’m gonna cancel student loans/fix the Supreme Court/give everyone healthcare”
Rep says: “I’m going to be president for life”
Which one do you believe more?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:23 AM on November 9
Rep says: “I’m going to be president for life”
Which one do you believe more?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:23 AM on November 9
I really do think a lot of the answer comes down to the economy, and a perception of Democratic lying about the economy.
Harris and the other Democrats kept saying, over and over and over, that the economy was doing better.
And, from a certain standpoint they're right.
But look, even a politically active and involved person like me also thought they were bullshitting us because to me "the economy" means my rent and groceries. And that wasn't doing better. Prices were still high, rents were still high, and while I understood in an intellectual way that in theory wages had gone up (mine didn't, but averages right) and prices never go down, it still FELT like they were lying and thought I was the sort of idiot who'd be taken in by their obvious lies.
I'm not saying there's anything Harris could have done differently on this, but we come back again and again to Reagan's one single bit of actual wisdom: if you're explaining then you're losing.
And Harris was in the unenviable position of explaining to voters even dumber than I am (and I'm pretty fucking stupid) that despite what they saw on a daily basis the economy really was doing better. That was never going to work.
She couldn't have been out there saying yeah, the economy sucks, because she had the incumbent disadvantage. If the economy sucked why hadn't she done anything about it? And, again, there's explanations but we're back to explanations aren't we?
I felt irrationally angry every time I heard a Democrat or Democratic surrogate talking about how great the economy was. I can't even imagine how pissed off it must have made people who were less into politics than me.
Biden said he was for the workers, and he fucked the train union.
Harris said the economy was great and my grocery bill is crazy high and my rent hasn't gone down.
Biden said he was for justice and ending racism and he was bombing the fuck out of people in Gaza. Even if you think he SHOULD be bombing the fuck out of people in Gaza the hypocrisy is still visible.
Everyone says Trump will be a dictator but he wasn't a dictator when he was president last time.
The border is a mess, we're flooded with illegal immigrants committing crime, and Biden hasn't done anything about it! The part where illegal immigration is about the same as under Trump and the Republicans were systemically blocking all legislation on the topic is explaining again and just gets turned into the Charlie Brown adult wommm woommmm wooooommmm sounds for most voters.
They keep talking about abortion, but when Trump was President abortion was legal and when Biden was President abortion wasn't.
If you're a person who doesn't think much about politics, doesn't pay much attention, and especially if you only get your news via social media and right wing sources it's really easy to see how you'd think Trump isn't so bad and Harris is an elitist hypocrite who thinks you're stupid.
It's WRONG, in every single particular [1], but I can easily see how the low information voters would go Trump. In hindsight it's obvious and I shouldn't have been surprised when he won.
That doesn't mean America made the right decision, but it does mean that I actually feel slightly better about the election. It doesn't actually mean most Americans are in favor of white supremacy, dictatorship, and racism. It just means they're morons.
It also tells us that if the Democrats had a lick of sense they'd realize they need a different approach and to get rid of the stodgy old fossils they keep running and expecting us to like.
[1] Well, except the Gaza part, that's 100% correct.
posted by sotonohito at 6:28 AM on November 9 [26 favorites]
Harris and the other Democrats kept saying, over and over and over, that the economy was doing better.
And, from a certain standpoint they're right.
But look, even a politically active and involved person like me also thought they were bullshitting us because to me "the economy" means my rent and groceries. And that wasn't doing better. Prices were still high, rents were still high, and while I understood in an intellectual way that in theory wages had gone up (mine didn't, but averages right) and prices never go down, it still FELT like they were lying and thought I was the sort of idiot who'd be taken in by their obvious lies.
I'm not saying there's anything Harris could have done differently on this, but we come back again and again to Reagan's one single bit of actual wisdom: if you're explaining then you're losing.
And Harris was in the unenviable position of explaining to voters even dumber than I am (and I'm pretty fucking stupid) that despite what they saw on a daily basis the economy really was doing better. That was never going to work.
She couldn't have been out there saying yeah, the economy sucks, because she had the incumbent disadvantage. If the economy sucked why hadn't she done anything about it? And, again, there's explanations but we're back to explanations aren't we?
I felt irrationally angry every time I heard a Democrat or Democratic surrogate talking about how great the economy was. I can't even imagine how pissed off it must have made people who were less into politics than me.
Biden said he was for the workers, and he fucked the train union.
Harris said the economy was great and my grocery bill is crazy high and my rent hasn't gone down.
Biden said he was for justice and ending racism and he was bombing the fuck out of people in Gaza. Even if you think he SHOULD be bombing the fuck out of people in Gaza the hypocrisy is still visible.
Everyone says Trump will be a dictator but he wasn't a dictator when he was president last time.
The border is a mess, we're flooded with illegal immigrants committing crime, and Biden hasn't done anything about it! The part where illegal immigration is about the same as under Trump and the Republicans were systemically blocking all legislation on the topic is explaining again and just gets turned into the Charlie Brown adult wommm woommmm wooooommmm sounds for most voters.
They keep talking about abortion, but when Trump was President abortion was legal and when Biden was President abortion wasn't.
If you're a person who doesn't think much about politics, doesn't pay much attention, and especially if you only get your news via social media and right wing sources it's really easy to see how you'd think Trump isn't so bad and Harris is an elitist hypocrite who thinks you're stupid.
It's WRONG, in every single particular [1], but I can easily see how the low information voters would go Trump. In hindsight it's obvious and I shouldn't have been surprised when he won.
That doesn't mean America made the right decision, but it does mean that I actually feel slightly better about the election. It doesn't actually mean most Americans are in favor of white supremacy, dictatorship, and racism. It just means they're morons.
It also tells us that if the Democrats had a lick of sense they'd realize they need a different approach and to get rid of the stodgy old fossils they keep running and expecting us to like.
[1] Well, except the Gaza part, that's 100% correct.
posted by sotonohito at 6:28 AM on November 9 [26 favorites]
“The Prophetic Song from the Past that PREDICTS our Future”—The Quiet Part, 07 November 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 6:33 AM on November 9
posted by ob1quixote at 6:33 AM on November 9
Which one do you believe more?
It doesn’t matter because we’ve seen time and time again that these people pick and choose what they believe about Trump. It’s diabolical because it allows them to always be right.
And I actually do believe most Americans are in favor of white supremacy, dictatorship, and racism. White Dems who have the exact same policies as Harris, and endorsed her, managed to win.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:35 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
It doesn’t matter because we’ve seen time and time again that these people pick and choose what they believe about Trump. It’s diabolical because it allows them to always be right.
And I actually do believe most Americans are in favor of white supremacy, dictatorship, and racism. White Dems who have the exact same policies as Harris, and endorsed her, managed to win.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:35 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Hell, I expect he will try and find a way to profit off it - it's what he does. )
Kushner is salvating over the newly available ocean front property.
posted by Mitheral at 6:43 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
Kushner is salvating over the newly available ocean front property.
posted by Mitheral at 6:43 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
I spent hours trying to persuade US voters to choose Harris not Trump. I know why she lost
Main points:
- "The first type of voter I encountered as a volunteer on the Harris phone bank was the one focused purely on the economy... Wages may well be rising at all levels, but everyday inflation was more discernible to voters."
- "The next group of voter was extremely focused on Harris as a candidate... Quite remarkably, the Trump campaign successfully branded Harris as both a communist – lax on law and order – and simultaneously too tough on crime. To many, she was both an ineffective vice-president and one who had her hands all over the Biden administration. Voters held these facts in their heads at once – and would not be persuaded otherwise."
- "Time and again, voters, very often women themselves, told me that they just didn’t think that “America is ready for a female president”. People said they couldn’t “see her in the chair” and asked if I “really thought a woman could run the country”. One person memorably told me that she couldn’t vote for Harris because “you don’t see women building skyscrapers”. Sometimes, these people would be persuaded, but more often than not it was a red line. Many conversations would start with positive discussions on policy and then end on Harris and her gender."
posted by clawsoon at 7:12 AM on November 9 [19 favorites]
Main points:
- "The first type of voter I encountered as a volunteer on the Harris phone bank was the one focused purely on the economy... Wages may well be rising at all levels, but everyday inflation was more discernible to voters."
- "The next group of voter was extremely focused on Harris as a candidate... Quite remarkably, the Trump campaign successfully branded Harris as both a communist – lax on law and order – and simultaneously too tough on crime. To many, she was both an ineffective vice-president and one who had her hands all over the Biden administration. Voters held these facts in their heads at once – and would not be persuaded otherwise."
- "Time and again, voters, very often women themselves, told me that they just didn’t think that “America is ready for a female president”. People said they couldn’t “see her in the chair” and asked if I “really thought a woman could run the country”. One person memorably told me that she couldn’t vote for Harris because “you don’t see women building skyscrapers”. Sometimes, these people would be persuaded, but more often than not it was a red line. Many conversations would start with positive discussions on policy and then end on Harris and her gender."
posted by clawsoon at 7:12 AM on November 9 [19 favorites]
Voters also think the Trump-appointed judges who banned Roe were appointed by Biden
To be fair, they did overturn Roe in Biden's term, which clearly makes it his fault.
posted by flabdablet at 7:32 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
To be fair, they did overturn Roe in Biden's term, which clearly makes it his fault.
posted by flabdablet at 7:32 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
and asked if I “really thought a woman could run the country”.
Ironically, Susie Wiles will probably be doing most of the actual day-to-day running of the country.
posted by clawsoon at 8:06 AM on November 9 [12 favorites]
Ironically, Susie Wiles will probably be doing most of the actual day-to-day running of the country.
posted by clawsoon at 8:06 AM on November 9 [12 favorites]
Trump Holds Up Transition Process Over Ethics Code
tldr: exactly what you think.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:14 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
tldr: exactly what you think.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:14 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
>. If the economy sucked why hadn't she done anything about it?
since the GOP had taken the country hostage again in the midterm election, the real answer is that in our constitutional order the executive branch no longer had anything to execute, since its job is to faithfully execute the law and government policy as enacted by Congress.
The Biden admin got cute with widening its understanding of its power to zero out student loans, but that was largely undone by the GOP control of SCOTUS.
Gas prices rose from the COVID shutdown lows over the Biden's first year in office. In response, in November 2021 the admin began to tap the SPR.
Putin didn't do the macro any favors with hits invasion of Ukraine, and even though natgas prices are lower now than they were before, the Biden admin gets full blame since that happened on their watch.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zQWq
(real corporate profits, 2024 dollars) shows profits were flat at $2.4T, then up a lot as corporations could start blaming 'inflation' on jacking up margins.
All this is too wonky for IQ 100 people, maybe breaking it down by real monthly corporate profits per worker (like former Rep Katie Porter might try):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zR2a
shows from 1950 - 2000 profits were in the $600 range, that doubled to $1200 under Bush, and tripled up to $1800 as everybody allegedly had excess savings and bought the shelves bare in 2021-22. Or something like that.
Since the GOP are going to retain their hold in the House, and take back the Senate too for that matter, on a certain economic short-term level it does make more sense to put the GOP into the White House, no matter how odious it is.
Even Kennedy or LBJ would be stymied by the obstructionism Biden or Harris would have faced next year against the Freedom Caucus-controlled House.
Hang onto your butts, now.
posted by torokunai at 8:35 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
since the GOP had taken the country hostage again in the midterm election, the real answer is that in our constitutional order the executive branch no longer had anything to execute, since its job is to faithfully execute the law and government policy as enacted by Congress.
The Biden admin got cute with widening its understanding of its power to zero out student loans, but that was largely undone by the GOP control of SCOTUS.
Gas prices rose from the COVID shutdown lows over the Biden's first year in office. In response, in November 2021 the admin began to tap the SPR.
Putin didn't do the macro any favors with hits invasion of Ukraine, and even though natgas prices are lower now than they were before, the Biden admin gets full blame since that happened on their watch.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zQWq
(real corporate profits, 2024 dollars) shows profits were flat at $2.4T, then up a lot as corporations could start blaming 'inflation' on jacking up margins.
All this is too wonky for IQ 100 people, maybe breaking it down by real monthly corporate profits per worker (like former Rep Katie Porter might try):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zR2a
shows from 1950 - 2000 profits were in the $600 range, that doubled to $1200 under Bush, and tripled up to $1800 as everybody allegedly had excess savings and bought the shelves bare in 2021-22. Or something like that.
Since the GOP are going to retain their hold in the House, and take back the Senate too for that matter, on a certain economic short-term level it does make more sense to put the GOP into the White House, no matter how odious it is.
Even Kennedy or LBJ would be stymied by the obstructionism Biden or Harris would have faced next year against the Freedom Caucus-controlled House.
Hang onto your butts, now.
posted by torokunai at 8:35 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zRtt is also a key FRED graph to contemplate. ["TCMDODNS" is "Total Credit Market Debt Owed – Domestic Non-Financial Sectors" (Financial Sector debt is pass-through for the most part so ignored here).]
This graph divides that by GDP, revealing the general systemic leverage level of the US economy . . . the Reagan Era 80s were floated on a sea of leverage until the well ran dry in 1990 ("S&L Crisis" etc), as was the 2000s before it all imploded in 2007-08 (you might remember that event if you're Gen X or older).
No doubt the 2020 spike induced inflation, everybody got free money yet it was tough getting stuff from our manufacturing sector. Hell, even Musk had to shut down his China factory during this time.
Behind the scenes, the Fed has been responsibly backing out the Biden part of its COVID-era intervention (+$2T or so):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zRzz
(the Fed no doubt funded my late 2021 2.75% re-fi and I deeply thank them for that)
posted by torokunai at 9:12 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
This graph divides that by GDP, revealing the general systemic leverage level of the US economy . . . the Reagan Era 80s were floated on a sea of leverage until the well ran dry in 1990 ("S&L Crisis" etc), as was the 2000s before it all imploded in 2007-08 (you might remember that event if you're Gen X or older).
No doubt the 2020 spike induced inflation, everybody got free money yet it was tough getting stuff from our manufacturing sector. Hell, even Musk had to shut down his China factory during this time.
Behind the scenes, the Fed has been responsibly backing out the Biden part of its COVID-era intervention (+$2T or so):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zRzz
(the Fed no doubt funded my late 2021 2.75% re-fi and I deeply thank them for that)
posted by torokunai at 9:12 AM on November 9 [1 favorite]
I’ll also add that a lot of Covid era education funding dried up under bidens watch. Despite our high taxes NJ schools are facing serious budget shortfalls because of the fed money drying up. Not bidens fault but you can see how people may make the connection
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:30 AM on November 9 [3 favorites]
(pardon me, I'm grieving and today is Anger)
I was arguing with an annoying leftist friend of mine today and I got more crap about how the Democrats needed a more compelling message, that he talks to "plenty" of Black and Latino people (read: men) who know the Dems are full of shit so they voted for Trump, blah blah blah.
You know who deserves 90% of the blame for Trump's win? PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP. We on the left/progressive/centrist side tend to think like this, which is pretty elitist if you think about it:
* Liberals and especially liberal or progressive politicians have Free Will and when things go wrong, they need to do better. Bad messaging, bad candidates, bad this and that. It's on us to give the rest of the people something "exciting" or "compelling" to vote FOR.
* Conservatives, working class, poor people, and minority men are Fated By The Tides of Social Forces to vote for Trump until we do better at giving them a "reason" to vote. If they don't vote or vote wrong, it's probably my fault!
I actually don't know whether we have free will, but for society to function we need to act like it does. Conservatives themselves love 'em some bootstraps and means tests and deregulation because, you know, if you're dumb enough to be injured by some defective product it's your own fault. Well, right back at you my friend.
So which is it? Do Trump voters have a civic duty to learn how government works and to evaluate their choices critically, and to learn to separate fact from fiction? If they do, then this election is on them because there isn't a rational argument for a good and moral person to vote for Trump. If they don't, then we should go back to being an aristocracy and bring back some sort of voter readiness tests. Sounds bad, right? Then it's THEIR FAULT - not mine, not Gaza victims' families, not Biden, not Harris, not anyone.
Educated liberals love to fetishize the poor oppressed masses as some sort of noble savages they need to save, but the truth is that the masses are just as terrible as the elitists and intelligentsia, maybe more. I would love to say I see a bunch of gosh darn hard working Americans who don't have time to learn about politics and issues because they're struggling to make ends meet, but I don't really see that. Even the hardest working or most challenged people I know spend plenty of time faffing about shooting AR-15s or watching sportsball or partying or whatever they feel like. And fuck machismo and "respect" for the tough guy at the top. This shit is important, man! I've spent a lot of time and effort improving myself, detoxifying my masculinity, rethinking my positions, and all that, and I could have been screwing around having fun instead. It sucks to be carrying these ding-dongs, and we can't blame it all on capitalism and toxic media.
Well, on most other days I do blame those things, but today I'm all fuck a motherfuckin' Trump voter.
Also I had therapy Thursday and I ended up giving a therapy session TO my therapist about the election. He got really close to crying a few times. Thanks assholes!
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:45 AM on November 9 [23 favorites]
I was arguing with an annoying leftist friend of mine today and I got more crap about how the Democrats needed a more compelling message, that he talks to "plenty" of Black and Latino people (read: men) who know the Dems are full of shit so they voted for Trump, blah blah blah.
You know who deserves 90% of the blame for Trump's win? PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP. We on the left/progressive/centrist side tend to think like this, which is pretty elitist if you think about it:
* Liberals and especially liberal or progressive politicians have Free Will and when things go wrong, they need to do better. Bad messaging, bad candidates, bad this and that. It's on us to give the rest of the people something "exciting" or "compelling" to vote FOR.
* Conservatives, working class, poor people, and minority men are Fated By The Tides of Social Forces to vote for Trump until we do better at giving them a "reason" to vote. If they don't vote or vote wrong, it's probably my fault!
I actually don't know whether we have free will, but for society to function we need to act like it does. Conservatives themselves love 'em some bootstraps and means tests and deregulation because, you know, if you're dumb enough to be injured by some defective product it's your own fault. Well, right back at you my friend.
So which is it? Do Trump voters have a civic duty to learn how government works and to evaluate their choices critically, and to learn to separate fact from fiction? If they do, then this election is on them because there isn't a rational argument for a good and moral person to vote for Trump. If they don't, then we should go back to being an aristocracy and bring back some sort of voter readiness tests. Sounds bad, right? Then it's THEIR FAULT - not mine, not Gaza victims' families, not Biden, not Harris, not anyone.
Educated liberals love to fetishize the poor oppressed masses as some sort of noble savages they need to save, but the truth is that the masses are just as terrible as the elitists and intelligentsia, maybe more. I would love to say I see a bunch of gosh darn hard working Americans who don't have time to learn about politics and issues because they're struggling to make ends meet, but I don't really see that. Even the hardest working or most challenged people I know spend plenty of time faffing about shooting AR-15s or watching sportsball or partying or whatever they feel like. And fuck machismo and "respect" for the tough guy at the top. This shit is important, man! I've spent a lot of time and effort improving myself, detoxifying my masculinity, rethinking my positions, and all that, and I could have been screwing around having fun instead. It sucks to be carrying these ding-dongs, and we can't blame it all on capitalism and toxic media.
Well, on most other days I do blame those things, but today I'm all fuck a motherfuckin' Trump voter.
Also I had therapy Thursday and I ended up giving a therapy session TO my therapist about the election. He got really close to crying a few times. Thanks assholes!
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:45 AM on November 9 [23 favorites]
Well said caviar2d2!
You know who deserves 90% of the blame for Trump's win? PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP.
Well.
(that's a church thing)
Conservatives themselves love 'em some bootstraps and means tests and deregulation because, you know, if you're dumb enough to be injured by some defective product it's your own fault. Well, right back at you my friend.
Great way to say it. I've seen some real questionable people trying to act like we're wishing ill on folks but no. I don't wish ill on anyone but when you absolutely refuse to listen to not only reason but also obvious unapologetically horrific stuff that you're ignoring in the person you're voting for...well it's that leopard face moment right?
Watching a deluge of commentary about this election has finally pushed me to a place where it's impossible to keep up. We've hit that time where between the bots and real people and real stories and multiple threads on multiple websites it's just too much to reel in. Too much disinformation to combat. Too much clearly disingenuous commentary. Too many 'agents' to figure out what their purpose is, where they came from, what their agenda is, where they went wrong.
Like I'm sure I'm not the only one who sometime around 5 or so years after the internet got popular thought "You know, if everyone got internet access, it would be impossible to keep up. Impossible to have any kind of real interactions. Impossible to read anything close to it all or have any kind of shared ideas or events or community. For quite a while it's felt spread out. Now it seems like there is a tsunami of accounts everywhere. You may spend an hour replying to a bot. You may spend a day coming up with sources and citations only to find you're replying to someone who ultimately dismisses everything you say because of some cult they're in.
But back to the point - yes I agree. Almost all of the blame for Trump being elected goes to people who were insert reason here enough to vote for him.
posted by cashman at 10:11 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]
You know who deserves 90% of the blame for Trump's win? PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP.
Well.
(that's a church thing)
Conservatives themselves love 'em some bootstraps and means tests and deregulation because, you know, if you're dumb enough to be injured by some defective product it's your own fault. Well, right back at you my friend.
Great way to say it. I've seen some real questionable people trying to act like we're wishing ill on folks but no. I don't wish ill on anyone but when you absolutely refuse to listen to not only reason but also obvious unapologetically horrific stuff that you're ignoring in the person you're voting for...well it's that leopard face moment right?
Watching a deluge of commentary about this election has finally pushed me to a place where it's impossible to keep up. We've hit that time where between the bots and real people and real stories and multiple threads on multiple websites it's just too much to reel in. Too much disinformation to combat. Too much clearly disingenuous commentary. Too many 'agents' to figure out what their purpose is, where they came from, what their agenda is, where they went wrong.
Like I'm sure I'm not the only one who sometime around 5 or so years after the internet got popular thought "You know, if everyone got internet access, it would be impossible to keep up. Impossible to have any kind of real interactions. Impossible to read anything close to it all or have any kind of shared ideas or events or community. For quite a while it's felt spread out. Now it seems like there is a tsunami of accounts everywhere. You may spend an hour replying to a bot. You may spend a day coming up with sources and citations only to find you're replying to someone who ultimately dismisses everything you say because of some cult they're in.
But back to the point - yes I agree. Almost all of the blame for Trump being elected goes to people who were insert reason here enough to vote for him.
posted by cashman at 10:11 AM on November 9 [6 favorites]
> (like former Rep Katie Porter might try):
here's another one on our trickle-up economy...
US Consumer Spending Is Increasingly Driven by Richer Households - "The consumers powering US economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder, and likely enjoying a wealth effect from asset-price gains, according to research by Federal Reserve economists."
given the decades-long slide down anacyclosis though, how do we break the wheel?
there is only one way out :P
posted by kliuless at 10:23 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
here's another one on our trickle-up economy...
US Consumer Spending Is Increasingly Driven by Richer Households - "The consumers powering US economic growth are increasingly those who are higher up the income ladder, and likely enjoying a wealth effect from asset-price gains, according to research by Federal Reserve economists."
In the two pre-pandemic years, average household consumption was growing at a similar pace across all income groups, the new Fed study of retail spending shows. But since then, spending patterns have diverged sharply.> A core problem with all of these postmortems is that they're treating this election as some neutral thing, and it wasn't. Like it was in some way Biden's or Harris's to lose. That the story of Trump winning is a story of how he got it right and Democrats got it wrong. But it wasn't. Economic sentiment is terrible.
In the initial Covid period through mid-2021, low-income households increased spending faster than others with the help of public stimulus programs. But their consumption fell back after the last pandemic checks went out, while middle- and especially higher-income Americans have powered ahead. Overall, since the start of 2018, high-earning households raised spending more than twice as much as the low-income group.
given the decades-long slide down anacyclosis though, how do we break the wheel?
...Stagnating living standard creates fertile ground for fascism. Far-right win elections >> Far-right drives economy off a cliff, lowers standards of public life & generally makes everything objectively worse >> Uninspiring centrist refuses to tackle the underlying social problems that led to the rise of the far-right >> Uninspiring centrist defeats far-right with a promise of change...senator-elect andy kim:
Even after 4 yrs in office, Trump wasn’t seen as the status quo or as a “politician.” There was a clear belief that Trump was different. Some raised real concerns about Trump’s policies and personality, but those concerns didn’t override their disgust for politics.i was listening to the radio tuesday afternoon and i heard this from Common: "One of the most important things I ever heard in my life was, Ambassador Andrew Young said, 'What are you willing to die for? Live for that. We were willing to die for freedom and justice and equality. So we live for it, each and every day.'"
The perception that he was different and also taking on the status quo boosted him. In other words, the deep existing distrust in politics and governance gave oxygen to Trump’s strength.
But for these voters, they also saw me as “different.” What stood out to me is that their comments presented an opening for a different way to be different. Trump’s playbook isn’t the only way.
For instance the 2020 crossover voters resonated with my heavy focus on reform and taking on corruption. They liked that I don’t accept corporate PAC funding as they see special interests as a major corrupting force in politics that drowns out the voice of regular people.
I learned never to underestimate the extent to which people distrust and despise politics, especially those that do not engage regularly.
There were other issues that they raised but the main point I wanted to convey is that the hinge was on what it means to be “different.” Not about being just different from Trump, but different from the same old same old entrenched politics that people are wholly angry at.
I’m sure this reflection on 4 yrs ago isn’t perfect for this moment, but it speaks to the need to immediately dive in and assess rather than shoot from the hip. I do not have an easy answer to what went wrong because none exists, but the nuance and humility is important.
There is too much hubris in our politics. Too many people who think they have all the answers. Let’s go out and have deep and thoughtful conversations with people. Listen to them. And then earnestly work to address their concerns and rebuild trust.
We do that while we seriously think through what it means to be “different.” To show that our defense of democracy/institutions doesn’t mean we defend what is clearly a broken politics that has contributed to the greatest amount of inequality in our nation’s history.
We’re on an unsustainable trajectory as a nation if we don’t address this distrust. On election night I said “I believe the opposite of democracy is apathy.” I still believe we can heal the country and restore trust and integrity to public service. Let’s get to work.
there is only one way out :P
posted by kliuless at 10:23 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
She couldn't have been out there saying yeah, the economy sucks, because she had the incumbent disadvantage. If the economy sucked why hadn't she done anything about it? And, again, there's explanations but we're back to explanations aren't we
I was talking about this with my partner recently, about how there's so much of an understanding gap between even nominally religious people and non-religious people, and how much it affects. She absolutely could have talked about the economy sucking, and she even could have said, "You know what, some of it IS my fault; I should have stood up to Biden sooner. I have learned from this and grown and from now on I'm going to call shit out every time I see it." Because there is so, so, SO much room and grace for a repentant sinner. It's baked in. It is literally the fastest way to disarm someone who grew up on these heuristics. It is the people who *fail* to admit their wrongdoing that come in for the biggest disdain.
it's really easy to see how you'd think Trump isn't so bad and Harris is an elitist hypocrite who thinks you're stupid.
It's WRONG, in every single particular [1]
Only the first part is wrong. The second part is absolutely right in every single particular.
Harris talks a mean game about how reproductive health and women's choice is her biggest priority - and then has fucking Trump of all people messaging to the left of her on IVF. She could have made huge game changing moves there. Fuck, even if she just pushed Democrats to hold the line on the Defense Authorization bill for Tricare beneficiaries, she could have picked up a lot of fucking votes. But instead, she doesn't make any real promises there - so people including me think she (and many Democrats) are fucking hypocrites on reproductive health and choice for women. Because my reproductive choice sure the fuck includes the choice to have children as well as the choice not to have children.
The shit on the economy, you're absolutely right, it is enraging, and every time it gets talked about it expects people to forget that they're fucked. It is the most insulting thing that can be said because no one gives a fuck about the stock market or the GDP. People care about their own economic success. And it is elitist as fuck to be as tone deaf as the Democrats have been on this issue.
The fact that the big unions didn't endorse does actually mean that the Biden-Harris administration hasn't been doing a great job on helping unions or working people. Have things improved under a Biden NLRB? Absolutely, sure. But the federal government under Biden is still doing the same fucky employer shit that the unions are fighting in private employment and the Democrats aren't even trying to reverse that shit. They're still destroying pensions (look CSRS versus FERS). They're still destroying healthcare (The federal benefit plans are shittier and shittier, FEDVIP and Tricare costs have risen, and the VA is now denying the ability for doctors to prescribe certain drugs to patients due to cost). And Dems don't seem to give a fuck, but they want everyone to think they're on the side of working people.
I don't know if "thinks you're stupid" or "thinks you have no choice so you can get fucked" is accurate, but either way, you can't really expect people to get excited about it.
posted by corb at 10:23 AM on November 9 [10 favorites]
I was talking about this with my partner recently, about how there's so much of an understanding gap between even nominally religious people and non-religious people, and how much it affects. She absolutely could have talked about the economy sucking, and she even could have said, "You know what, some of it IS my fault; I should have stood up to Biden sooner. I have learned from this and grown and from now on I'm going to call shit out every time I see it." Because there is so, so, SO much room and grace for a repentant sinner. It's baked in. It is literally the fastest way to disarm someone who grew up on these heuristics. It is the people who *fail* to admit their wrongdoing that come in for the biggest disdain.
it's really easy to see how you'd think Trump isn't so bad and Harris is an elitist hypocrite who thinks you're stupid.
It's WRONG, in every single particular [1]
Only the first part is wrong. The second part is absolutely right in every single particular.
Harris talks a mean game about how reproductive health and women's choice is her biggest priority - and then has fucking Trump of all people messaging to the left of her on IVF. She could have made huge game changing moves there. Fuck, even if she just pushed Democrats to hold the line on the Defense Authorization bill for Tricare beneficiaries, she could have picked up a lot of fucking votes. But instead, she doesn't make any real promises there - so people including me think she (and many Democrats) are fucking hypocrites on reproductive health and choice for women. Because my reproductive choice sure the fuck includes the choice to have children as well as the choice not to have children.
The shit on the economy, you're absolutely right, it is enraging, and every time it gets talked about it expects people to forget that they're fucked. It is the most insulting thing that can be said because no one gives a fuck about the stock market or the GDP. People care about their own economic success. And it is elitist as fuck to be as tone deaf as the Democrats have been on this issue.
The fact that the big unions didn't endorse does actually mean that the Biden-Harris administration hasn't been doing a great job on helping unions or working people. Have things improved under a Biden NLRB? Absolutely, sure. But the federal government under Biden is still doing the same fucky employer shit that the unions are fighting in private employment and the Democrats aren't even trying to reverse that shit. They're still destroying pensions (look CSRS versus FERS). They're still destroying healthcare (The federal benefit plans are shittier and shittier, FEDVIP and Tricare costs have risen, and the VA is now denying the ability for doctors to prescribe certain drugs to patients due to cost). And Dems don't seem to give a fuck, but they want everyone to think they're on the side of working people.
I don't know if "thinks you're stupid" or "thinks you have no choice so you can get fucked" is accurate, but either way, you can't really expect people to get excited about it.
posted by corb at 10:23 AM on November 9 [10 favorites]
Can a progressive party now show up then? I've just seen days and days of people acting like the Democrats are the dumbest SOBs on the planet. Okay, where's the party to the left of them. Is anybody starting to build it out? Cause talking shit about this woman who busted her ass, aint it. It's like watching your mother do all she can to take care of you and your family after your dad left and then going "Well shit, she could have at least worked a 3rd job so I could have a gas powered lawnmower instead of a push one. Meanwhile, even dad has a gas lawnmower."
Is this the circular firing squad people always alluded to? God damn
So yeah, kick the Dems to the curb. Where's the real party that's going to have all these things in their back pocket, or at least try to. Kamala's shit, Barack is shit, all of em are apparently trash now, cool, lets go. Somewhere. Because the amount of ways Kamala succeeded are invisible to at least a few of the prominent folks around here. Which is fine in this moment, cause I'm not trying to live in Trump's America in his 3rd term in 2030. If not enough people get it, it is what it is. Next.
So yeah, who do yall have in mind for 2024. I'll vote for them. Hopefully they have a violent backup plan that they never have to use, because the threat of violence is pretty much what the party in power in Feb 2025 is going to respect.
Is there a (white, male) name of a candidate? Who are we getting behind? Cause it's clearly not the Democrats.
posted by cashman at 10:37 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]
Is this the circular firing squad people always alluded to? God damn
So yeah, kick the Dems to the curb. Where's the real party that's going to have all these things in their back pocket, or at least try to. Kamala's shit, Barack is shit, all of em are apparently trash now, cool, lets go. Somewhere. Because the amount of ways Kamala succeeded are invisible to at least a few of the prominent folks around here. Which is fine in this moment, cause I'm not trying to live in Trump's America in his 3rd term in 2030. If not enough people get it, it is what it is. Next.
So yeah, who do yall have in mind for 2024. I'll vote for them. Hopefully they have a violent backup plan that they never have to use, because the threat of violence is pretty much what the party in power in Feb 2025 is going to respect.
Is there a (white, male) name of a candidate? Who are we getting behind? Cause it's clearly not the Democrats.
posted by cashman at 10:37 AM on November 9 [9 favorites]
You know what, some of it IS my fault; I should have stood up to Biden sooner. I have learned from this and grown and from now on I'm going to call shit out every time I see it." Because there is so, so, SO much room and grace for a repentant sinner. It's baked in.
No one ever asked this of Trump.
posted by girlmightlive at 10:39 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]
No one ever asked this of Trump.
posted by girlmightlive at 10:39 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]
https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2023/03/PP_2023.03.14_iraq-war_00-05.png (backup link)
shows the arc of public support for Bush's Iraq adventure, 2003-2018.
GOP support started at 90%, dipped to 50% in the "Find Out" part and leveled at 60%. So 1 out of 3 supporters didn't enjoy their initial decision on that.
Dems started at ~50% and half of them eventually defected as the costs mounted.
A lot of cans have been kicked down the road these past 20 years. I'm quite saddened that our system in DC hasn't had the long-term commitment to fixing social security payments as they're scheduled to be cut 30% sometime next decade after the over-taxation on FICA payers that started in the mid-80s that built up the ~$3T SSA trust fund will be drawn down to its statutory minimum once all the boomers get paid.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zSSF is real (2024 dollars) per-capita federal gov't spending . . . $20K/yr for every man, woman, child. In some ways that's unsustainable, in some ways not.
At any rate, it's the GOP's problem to solve now.
posted by torokunai at 10:54 AM on November 9
shows the arc of public support for Bush's Iraq adventure, 2003-2018.
GOP support started at 90%, dipped to 50% in the "Find Out" part and leveled at 60%. So 1 out of 3 supporters didn't enjoy their initial decision on that.
Dems started at ~50% and half of them eventually defected as the costs mounted.
A lot of cans have been kicked down the road these past 20 years. I'm quite saddened that our system in DC hasn't had the long-term commitment to fixing social security payments as they're scheduled to be cut 30% sometime next decade after the over-taxation on FICA payers that started in the mid-80s that built up the ~$3T SSA trust fund will be drawn down to its statutory minimum once all the boomers get paid.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zSSF is real (2024 dollars) per-capita federal gov't spending . . . $20K/yr for every man, woman, child. In some ways that's unsustainable, in some ways not.
At any rate, it's the GOP's problem to solve now.
posted by torokunai at 10:54 AM on November 9
Trump of all people messaging to the left of her on IVF
That's because he just says whatever occurs to him in the moment based on the reactions of the crowd. He obviously doesn't give a shit about IVF. If people believe this any more than that he loves "[my] African-Americans", the way I feel on Anger day is that it's on them, not me, and not on Harris' messaging either.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:13 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]
That's because he just says whatever occurs to him in the moment based on the reactions of the crowd. He obviously doesn't give a shit about IVF. If people believe this any more than that he loves "[my] African-Americans", the way I feel on Anger day is that it's on them, not me, and not on Harris' messaging either.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:13 AM on November 9 [13 favorites]
Also, I can't believe we still don't know if the Democrats get the House. It's still 208 D - 216 R (218 needed) with 11 races outstanding:
- 4 safe or lean D
- 0 lean R
- 7 toss-up
If we get 6 of the 7 toss-ups, we get the House. Doubtful but
D House = Trump cannot pass any legislation during his term.
R House = Quadfecta (Executive, SCOTUS, House, Senate) and they can completely destroy the American system of government in the next 2 years.
Dark Caviar wants the second option because with the first, I'll get a two-year earful about how the Ds are "obstructionists" and Trump will have people taking potshots at them.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:19 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
- 4 safe or lean D
- 0 lean R
- 7 toss-up
If we get 6 of the 7 toss-ups, we get the House. Doubtful but
D House = Trump cannot pass any legislation during his term.
R House = Quadfecta (Executive, SCOTUS, House, Senate) and they can completely destroy the American system of government in the next 2 years.
Dark Caviar wants the second option because with the first, I'll get a two-year earful about how the Ds are "obstructionists" and Trump will have people taking potshots at them.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:19 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
It is the people who *fail* to admit their wrongdoing that come in for the biggest disdain.
I'm with you on so much of what you say, but then how can anyone reconcile this and TFG?
posted by mazola at 11:32 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]
I'm with you on so much of what you say, but then how can anyone reconcile this and TFG?
posted by mazola at 11:32 AM on November 9 [4 favorites]
ran into someone online who asserted that people decided that biden was a neoliberal shill because joe manchin signed onto his entire agenda[0], which was social proof that his agenda was neoliberal dogshit, so no wonder people believed biden was more economically right-wing than obama
people believe anything
[0] he very famously didn't
posted by BungaDunga at 11:40 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
people believe anything
[0] he very famously didn't
posted by BungaDunga at 11:40 AM on November 9 [5 favorites]
likely enjoying a wealth effect from asset-price gains, according to research by Federal Reserve economists
This is exactly bassackwards. The rich have driven up asset prices by buying assets at a furious rate because of the sudden wealth effect that happened as all that COVID helicopter money worked its way through the economy and pooled up as money always does, down there in the dark and fetid sump where the passive-income bottom feeders live.
The wealthy drove the asset price gains that have jacked everybody else's rents up. And sure, they're also benefiting from those asset price gains, because that's the positive feedback loop at the heart of the economy that gives rise to extreme concentrations of wealth in the first place. But in the current asset price inflation spike, the wealth gain came first and the asset price rises came second.
posted by flabdablet at 11:51 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
This is exactly bassackwards. The rich have driven up asset prices by buying assets at a furious rate because of the sudden wealth effect that happened as all that COVID helicopter money worked its way through the economy and pooled up as money always does, down there in the dark and fetid sump where the passive-income bottom feeders live.
The wealthy drove the asset price gains that have jacked everybody else's rents up. And sure, they're also benefiting from those asset price gains, because that's the positive feedback loop at the heart of the economy that gives rise to extreme concentrations of wealth in the first place. But in the current asset price inflation spike, the wealth gain came first and the asset price rises came second.
posted by flabdablet at 11:51 AM on November 9 [2 favorites]
how can anyone reconcile this and TFG?
People who don't instinctively recoil in horror on exposure to TFG are simply not good at reconciling anything and, as a consequence, almost never require themselves to.
They don't think for themselves in order to learn how the world works, despite their frequent admonitions to "do your own research". What they do instead is passively accept all TFG's absurdly exaggerated status markers, from the gold-plated toilets all the way down to the fucking superhero NFT imagery, as signs that this is a powerful and successful person whom I can trust to tell me how the world works. The marks totally buy into the kayfabe.
The fact that every facile incoherent steaming chunk of horseshit that falls out of that weirdly anal mouth is both wrong and designed to promote his interests is completely lost on people who would vastly prefer to be told what to think than bother to learn how.
These people don't come to a view that Democrats are hypocrites by comparing what Democrats say with what Democrats do. They come to it by having it spoonfed to them by Fucks and Newsmucks and ONAN and of course TFG. You'd be hard pressed to find a MAGA type actually capable of correctly citing anything a Democrat has either said or done.
posted by flabdablet at 12:05 PM on November 9 [16 favorites]
People who don't instinctively recoil in horror on exposure to TFG are simply not good at reconciling anything and, as a consequence, almost never require themselves to.
They don't think for themselves in order to learn how the world works, despite their frequent admonitions to "do your own research". What they do instead is passively accept all TFG's absurdly exaggerated status markers, from the gold-plated toilets all the way down to the fucking superhero NFT imagery, as signs that this is a powerful and successful person whom I can trust to tell me how the world works. The marks totally buy into the kayfabe.
The fact that every facile incoherent steaming chunk of horseshit that falls out of that weirdly anal mouth is both wrong and designed to promote his interests is completely lost on people who would vastly prefer to be told what to think than bother to learn how.
These people don't come to a view that Democrats are hypocrites by comparing what Democrats say with what Democrats do. They come to it by having it spoonfed to them by Fucks and Newsmucks and ONAN and of course TFG. You'd be hard pressed to find a MAGA type actually capable of correctly citing anything a Democrat has either said or done.
posted by flabdablet at 12:05 PM on November 9 [16 favorites]
So inflation and misinformation.
It’s so stupid and sad.
posted by mazola at 12:19 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
It’s so stupid and sad.
posted by mazola at 12:19 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
It is the people who *fail* to admit their wrongdoing that come in for the biggest disdain.
I'm with you on so much of what you say, but then how can anyone reconcile this and TFG?
Well, first of all, Trump *does* work on that score for various items - see his response to the "Grab them by the p" remarks. "I said it, it was wrong, and I apologize." The thing is, there are different kinds of apology, and one thing often not culturally understood is that religious and non-religious people often both demand and accept different types of apology.
The best way I can explain this is through my own background. As a Catholic, I have to regularly confess my sins. And I'm able to do so with a sort of...lack of agreement around the morality of what sin is. The formula for the prayer is, "I am heartily sorry for having offended you and I detest all my sins, because I dread the loss of heaven and the pains of hell." It's ultimately a social harmony apology - very much, "I'm sorry you're upset, and I hate that I'm doing wrong because doing wrong has shitty consequences, including you kicking me out of your house because you're upset." I can go to confession thinking that my sins are awesome, and it really sucks that they make God sad, because his house is awesome, and I don't want to get kicked out, so I should probably try to stop. And trying to stop doesn't require that you move every iota of your being into trying to stop, just that you're...trying. I can confess premarital sex and then I can have premarital sex again, because my trying to not have premarital sex can take the form of trying to get married so the same sex I already have isn't premarital anymore, even though I don't personally think that there's anything wrong with sex I'm currently having except that it's against God's rules.
The form of apology that seems to be most idealized in what I can only describe as urban liberal cultural spaces is an apology that understands the nuance of exactly why the thing was wrong, agrees that the thing was wrong in all of its particulars and that the person was Bad to do the thing, and promises never to do it again and then never does it again or can be expected to never do that again. But that isn't universally held.
So Trump can make an apology that's "I'm sorry it makes women upset that I said I like groping them, ladies are great, I was wrong to say that, please don't exile me from society" and that is enough for people who are used to that kind of culture. It doesn't require that he understand why groping women is wrong or that he understand patriarchy or power or the nature of sexual assault, just that he understands that it offends good people when he says it and he's going to try to stop saying it because otherwise they won't let him into the cool parties. And a social harmony apology like that counts as admitting wrongdoing.
People of the other background however, tend to be less willing, in general, to make "social harmony" apologies when they don't fundamentally believe that their actions were morally wrong enough to reach the level of Being A Bad Person. And that means they make fewer apologies.
Trump also especially benefits because he is working on a different archetype entirely that doesn't rely on being a moral exemplar. It may be more helpful to think of Trump in terms of tropes rather than in terms of a neutral evaluation. Trump is operating on the Indispensable Scoundrel trope. He's not suggesting that he is more moral than anyone else - he is placing himself down at the level of his crowds. And so he isn't expected to do any more than make mild social harmony apologies for the social harmony he's violating, when he's specifically asked to do so.
Does that help? So people who are voting for Trump don't think he's necessarily a Totally Good Guy TM - they reference things like David and Bathsheba, and just think that he's the guy who is necessary to bring about what's good, and it's fine that he's sinning in the meantime, at least he's aware of it.
posted by corb at 12:37 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]
I'm with you on so much of what you say, but then how can anyone reconcile this and TFG?
Well, first of all, Trump *does* work on that score for various items - see his response to the "Grab them by the p" remarks. "I said it, it was wrong, and I apologize." The thing is, there are different kinds of apology, and one thing often not culturally understood is that religious and non-religious people often both demand and accept different types of apology.
The best way I can explain this is through my own background. As a Catholic, I have to regularly confess my sins. And I'm able to do so with a sort of...lack of agreement around the morality of what sin is. The formula for the prayer is, "I am heartily sorry for having offended you and I detest all my sins, because I dread the loss of heaven and the pains of hell." It's ultimately a social harmony apology - very much, "I'm sorry you're upset, and I hate that I'm doing wrong because doing wrong has shitty consequences, including you kicking me out of your house because you're upset." I can go to confession thinking that my sins are awesome, and it really sucks that they make God sad, because his house is awesome, and I don't want to get kicked out, so I should probably try to stop. And trying to stop doesn't require that you move every iota of your being into trying to stop, just that you're...trying. I can confess premarital sex and then I can have premarital sex again, because my trying to not have premarital sex can take the form of trying to get married so the same sex I already have isn't premarital anymore, even though I don't personally think that there's anything wrong with sex I'm currently having except that it's against God's rules.
The form of apology that seems to be most idealized in what I can only describe as urban liberal cultural spaces is an apology that understands the nuance of exactly why the thing was wrong, agrees that the thing was wrong in all of its particulars and that the person was Bad to do the thing, and promises never to do it again and then never does it again or can be expected to never do that again. But that isn't universally held.
So Trump can make an apology that's "I'm sorry it makes women upset that I said I like groping them, ladies are great, I was wrong to say that, please don't exile me from society" and that is enough for people who are used to that kind of culture. It doesn't require that he understand why groping women is wrong or that he understand patriarchy or power or the nature of sexual assault, just that he understands that it offends good people when he says it and he's going to try to stop saying it because otherwise they won't let him into the cool parties. And a social harmony apology like that counts as admitting wrongdoing.
People of the other background however, tend to be less willing, in general, to make "social harmony" apologies when they don't fundamentally believe that their actions were morally wrong enough to reach the level of Being A Bad Person. And that means they make fewer apologies.
Trump also especially benefits because he is working on a different archetype entirely that doesn't rely on being a moral exemplar. It may be more helpful to think of Trump in terms of tropes rather than in terms of a neutral evaluation. Trump is operating on the Indispensable Scoundrel trope. He's not suggesting that he is more moral than anyone else - he is placing himself down at the level of his crowds. And so he isn't expected to do any more than make mild social harmony apologies for the social harmony he's violating, when he's specifically asked to do so.
Does that help? So people who are voting for Trump don't think he's necessarily a Totally Good Guy TM - they reference things like David and Bathsheba, and just think that he's the guy who is necessary to bring about what's good, and it's fine that he's sinning in the meantime, at least he's aware of it.
posted by corb at 12:37 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]
Well, first of all, Trump *does* work on that score for various items - see his response to the "Grab them by the p" remarks. "I said it, it was wrong, and I apologize."
His very sincere and believable teleprompter apology? That was enough?
Has he ever made another apology?
[correction: he apologizes all the time]
posted by mazola at 12:50 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
His very sincere and believable teleprompter apology? That was enough?
Has he ever made another apology?
[correction: he apologizes all the time]
posted by mazola at 12:50 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Thinking about it more, the three main factors I'd say are a mix of short-term and long-term problems for the Democrats:
1. As many having pointed out - the fundamentals were bad for Democrats this year. Enough voters will blame inflation on whoever is in charge when it happens. Add in skepticism of a woman (especially one who isn't white) as the "leader of the free world" - both of these were kinda basic baked in disadvantages for Harris. Though if these were the only factors against her, I think she could have won.
2. Distrust of the DNC. A lot of voters were angry when Biden announced he'd run again, after all the signaling he and his people made in 2020 about being a one-term president. I don't want to get into another argument about this - I realize he never explicitly said the words "I will be a one-term president." But the signals were made, and the American people interpreted them as such - that's what matters. So a good chunk was already annoyed at that decision, especially given that Biden's rare public appearances did not inspire confidence. And then the debate happened, and unleashed so much anger. I know I felt extremely angry at Biden and the DNC that night. I know from talking with friends and from listening to other voters that I wasn't alone in that anger. I still think going with Harris was the best option given the time frame of when Biden dropped out (fwiw, some of the Pod Saves Amer. guys said that Biden's internals suggested that Trump would win 400 electoral votes against him), but to me it's clear that a better option would have been a competitive primary, where the electorate would have a voice, and the candidates would have time to refine their positions/framing in conversation with that collective voice. Even if Harris was the pick from that process, she'd be stronger for it, and the electorate would feel better about the party.
Those first two points made the task of Harris a large one. I think we can rightly say not all of her campaign's strategies worked (she actually did worse than Biden with Republicans in a lot of key states), but I don't principally blame her - no campaign is perfect. And while her current margins in some states suggests she might have won with a different approach (Wisconsin is about 30k votes right now, Michigan about 80k) she's losing most of the swing states by well over 100k votes. Still worth learning from what worked and and what didn't (i.e. Cheney).
3. This third factor is kinda messy and I'm still parsing through it. On the one hand, the education divide is ultimately a social class divide - which is connected but slightly different than an economic class divide. Democratic politicians used to almost uniformly point to their working-class origins, they were folksy like Carter or Clinton, they came off like regular guys. I'm no Bill Clinton fan, but I trust people who say that the man is talented at working a line of random people. In the 90s he was broadly considered "cool." But then the party shifted to being a bit more wonky - certainly the case with Gore and Kerry - Obama was special because he could excite the wonks, but his background in community organizing helped him know how to cultivate broad appeal and to speak to different sorts of people. But he bailed out the banks. He didn't end the forever wars like he promised, which largely either killed or maimed (physically or mentally) lower income people. I'm simplifying a bit here, but the image of Democrats in my lifetime went from "salt of the earth" to an educated white collar worker who while empathetic is also a bit out of touch with the common people. People who voted for Obama and Trump make sense - a lot of them probably voted for Bernie in the primary (I knew one such person). And then the level of disdain towards Trump voters as "stupid" "vile" etc. in 2016 (no doubt amplified by Russian bots on social media, but at a certain point the bots were unneeded - I mean, check out this thread!) really cemented the impression a lot of the electorate had of that the Democrats looked down on them. (And yes, of course some Trump voters are indeed obnoxious, racist, bigoted, etc. -where the trouble lies is in making categorical statements - and I will cop to being guilty of thinking this way too in 2016) Then that sense of "Dems think you're stupid" gets amplified by various alt-right influencers, and now if you're a disaffected young male contrarian (and there will always be disaffected young men - and some women too), it's kinda cool to be MAGA. And I do think we need to reckon with how different that is from the early 2000s - George Bush wasn't cool - Young Republicans back then were mostly the sort of teens who wore khakis and tucked in their shirts - they existed, but it was a very different sort of youth who are exited by Trump.
posted by coffeecat at 12:58 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]
1. As many having pointed out - the fundamentals were bad for Democrats this year. Enough voters will blame inflation on whoever is in charge when it happens. Add in skepticism of a woman (especially one who isn't white) as the "leader of the free world" - both of these were kinda basic baked in disadvantages for Harris. Though if these were the only factors against her, I think she could have won.
2. Distrust of the DNC. A lot of voters were angry when Biden announced he'd run again, after all the signaling he and his people made in 2020 about being a one-term president. I don't want to get into another argument about this - I realize he never explicitly said the words "I will be a one-term president." But the signals were made, and the American people interpreted them as such - that's what matters. So a good chunk was already annoyed at that decision, especially given that Biden's rare public appearances did not inspire confidence. And then the debate happened, and unleashed so much anger. I know I felt extremely angry at Biden and the DNC that night. I know from talking with friends and from listening to other voters that I wasn't alone in that anger. I still think going with Harris was the best option given the time frame of when Biden dropped out (fwiw, some of the Pod Saves Amer. guys said that Biden's internals suggested that Trump would win 400 electoral votes against him), but to me it's clear that a better option would have been a competitive primary, where the electorate would have a voice, and the candidates would have time to refine their positions/framing in conversation with that collective voice. Even if Harris was the pick from that process, she'd be stronger for it, and the electorate would feel better about the party.
Those first two points made the task of Harris a large one. I think we can rightly say not all of her campaign's strategies worked (she actually did worse than Biden with Republicans in a lot of key states), but I don't principally blame her - no campaign is perfect. And while her current margins in some states suggests she might have won with a different approach (Wisconsin is about 30k votes right now, Michigan about 80k) she's losing most of the swing states by well over 100k votes. Still worth learning from what worked and and what didn't (i.e. Cheney).
3. This third factor is kinda messy and I'm still parsing through it. On the one hand, the education divide is ultimately a social class divide - which is connected but slightly different than an economic class divide. Democratic politicians used to almost uniformly point to their working-class origins, they were folksy like Carter or Clinton, they came off like regular guys. I'm no Bill Clinton fan, but I trust people who say that the man is talented at working a line of random people. In the 90s he was broadly considered "cool." But then the party shifted to being a bit more wonky - certainly the case with Gore and Kerry - Obama was special because he could excite the wonks, but his background in community organizing helped him know how to cultivate broad appeal and to speak to different sorts of people. But he bailed out the banks. He didn't end the forever wars like he promised, which largely either killed or maimed (physically or mentally) lower income people. I'm simplifying a bit here, but the image of Democrats in my lifetime went from "salt of the earth" to an educated white collar worker who while empathetic is also a bit out of touch with the common people. People who voted for Obama and Trump make sense - a lot of them probably voted for Bernie in the primary (I knew one such person). And then the level of disdain towards Trump voters as "stupid" "vile" etc. in 2016 (no doubt amplified by Russian bots on social media, but at a certain point the bots were unneeded - I mean, check out this thread!) really cemented the impression a lot of the electorate had of that the Democrats looked down on them. (And yes, of course some Trump voters are indeed obnoxious, racist, bigoted, etc. -where the trouble lies is in making categorical statements - and I will cop to being guilty of thinking this way too in 2016) Then that sense of "Dems think you're stupid" gets amplified by various alt-right influencers, and now if you're a disaffected young male contrarian (and there will always be disaffected young men - and some women too), it's kinda cool to be MAGA. And I do think we need to reckon with how different that is from the early 2000s - George Bush wasn't cool - Young Republicans back then were mostly the sort of teens who wore khakis and tucked in their shirts - they existed, but it was a very different sort of youth who are exited by Trump.
posted by coffeecat at 12:58 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]
she even could have said, "You know what, some of it IS my fault; I should have stood up to Biden sooner. I have learned from this and grown and from now on I'm going to call shit out every time I see it." Because there is so, so, SO much room and grace for a repentant sinner.
Whereas I think that any statement admitting the wrongs of the Biden administration would have been sound bites everywhere with the tag line of "how could you ever trust her to be right and strong when she was spineless when it counted?" Building of course on the successful "she didn't do it over the past 4 yrs."
posted by beaning at 1:04 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Whereas I think that any statement admitting the wrongs of the Biden administration would have been sound bites everywhere with the tag line of "how could you ever trust her to be right and strong when she was spineless when it counted?" Building of course on the successful "she didn't do it over the past 4 yrs."
posted by beaning at 1:04 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Re Trump's criminal past and apologies, I've already seen comments to the effect of "God put Trump there and God knows His reasons for doing so. Ours is not to question but to pray for a turnaround similar to Paul's." Anything to avoid saying they wish they'd voted differently as it now becomes clear what policies are likely.
posted by beaning at 1:07 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
posted by beaning at 1:07 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
> He didn't end the forever wars like he promised,
The US (militarily) withdrew from Iraq in his first term. He never promised to leave Aghanistan to the Taliban. The opposite in fact.
posted by torokunai at 1:25 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
The US (militarily) withdrew from Iraq in his first term. He never promised to leave Aghanistan to the Taliban. The opposite in fact.
posted by torokunai at 1:25 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
One thing I'm seeing a lot of the last couple days is liberal and left-leaning folks dismissing even the possibility of election fraud or interference out of hand, evidently for fear that to do otherwise is somehow denying or excusing the existence of racism, sexism, and various other deplorablisms in the electorate.
Which, I get that. And I'm sure as hell not arguing for buying into every conspiracy theory that comes down the pike.
But, you know, multiple bad things can be true at once. And if ever a party was going to rig an election they stood a lamentably good chance of winning anyhow, it's today's Trumpist GOP.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:56 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]
Which, I get that. And I'm sure as hell not arguing for buying into every conspiracy theory that comes down the pike.
But, you know, multiple bad things can be true at once. And if ever a party was going to rig an election they stood a lamentably good chance of winning anyhow, it's today's Trumpist GOP.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:56 PM on November 9 [7 favorites]
I can go to confession thinking that my sins are awesome, and it really sucks that they make God sad, because his house is awesome, and I don't want to get kicked out, so I should probably try to stop. And trying to stop doesn't require that you move every iota of your being into trying to stop, just that you're...trying....
...So Trump can make an apology that's "I'm sorry it makes women upset that I said I like groping them, ladies are great, I was wrong to say that, please don't exile me from society" and that is enough for people who are used to that kind of culture. It doesn't require that he understand why groping women is wrong or that he understand patriarchy or power or the nature of sexual assault, just that he understands that it offends good people when he says it and he's going to try to stop saying it because otherwise they won't let him into the cool parties. And a social harmony apology like that counts as admitting wrongdoing.
Wow. This is really really different from the Protestant understanding of confession. In our prayers of confession, which we make together for sins we all share and then silently for our own personal ones (no priest needed), the whole point is to actually to apologize to God and one another because we did the wrong thing and then not do the sin again. Yes, we know we may fail, but it's not about "making God sad and not wanting to get kicked out of the house". It's about trying to be a good person and do the right thing even when it's hard. But no, no progressive Protestant and honestly few honest practicing evangelicals (not just people with a Jesus t-shirt) I know would recognize what Donald Trump did as an acceptable apology. Because it wasn't actually an apology for grabbing women by the pussy, and that was the problem--not that he said it, but that he did it.
I agree that there is a cultural divide here, but as a Protestant, I'm blown away by this and do not see it as a religious/non-religious thing at all. For one thing, Donald Trump was vaguely raised Presbyterian (like me), and yet it's not clear he has ever belonged to a church or practiced any religion at all, so no, this has nothing to do with religion for him. It has to do with his complete lack of a conscience or empathy.
For his followers, they don't think there's anything wrong with him saying "grab them by the pussy" or doing so, because they don't actually think that's wrong. And yes, many of them go to church. So do all the pastors who steal money from their congregations and rape children. Christianity is a fucking mess.
The cultural divide is people who have chosen what in my faith would definitely be considered a deal with a devil for various reasons (that no doubt they think are good reasons), and those of us who recognize a devil when he lies to our faces and know that deals with a devil always end the same way.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:19 PM on November 9 [9 favorites]
...So Trump can make an apology that's "I'm sorry it makes women upset that I said I like groping them, ladies are great, I was wrong to say that, please don't exile me from society" and that is enough for people who are used to that kind of culture. It doesn't require that he understand why groping women is wrong or that he understand patriarchy or power or the nature of sexual assault, just that he understands that it offends good people when he says it and he's going to try to stop saying it because otherwise they won't let him into the cool parties. And a social harmony apology like that counts as admitting wrongdoing.
Wow. This is really really different from the Protestant understanding of confession. In our prayers of confession, which we make together for sins we all share and then silently for our own personal ones (no priest needed), the whole point is to actually to apologize to God and one another because we did the wrong thing and then not do the sin again. Yes, we know we may fail, but it's not about "making God sad and not wanting to get kicked out of the house". It's about trying to be a good person and do the right thing even when it's hard. But no, no progressive Protestant and honestly few honest practicing evangelicals (not just people with a Jesus t-shirt) I know would recognize what Donald Trump did as an acceptable apology. Because it wasn't actually an apology for grabbing women by the pussy, and that was the problem--not that he said it, but that he did it.
I agree that there is a cultural divide here, but as a Protestant, I'm blown away by this and do not see it as a religious/non-religious thing at all. For one thing, Donald Trump was vaguely raised Presbyterian (like me), and yet it's not clear he has ever belonged to a church or practiced any religion at all, so no, this has nothing to do with religion for him. It has to do with his complete lack of a conscience or empathy.
For his followers, they don't think there's anything wrong with him saying "grab them by the pussy" or doing so, because they don't actually think that's wrong. And yes, many of them go to church. So do all the pastors who steal money from their congregations and rape children. Christianity is a fucking mess.
The cultural divide is people who have chosen what in my faith would definitely be considered a deal with a devil for various reasons (that no doubt they think are good reasons), and those of us who recognize a devil when he lies to our faces and know that deals with a devil always end the same way.
posted by hydropsyche at 2:19 PM on November 9 [9 favorites]
>And if ever a party was going to rig an election
My county in California flipped to Trump (and Steve Garvey too for that matter).
116k voted for Trumpism, 98K for status quo, and 290K didn't vote at all
posted by torokunai at 2:32 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
My county in California flipped to Trump (and Steve Garvey too for that matter).
116k voted for Trumpism, 98K for status quo, and 290K didn't vote at all
posted by torokunai at 2:32 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
the whole point is to actually to apologize to God and one another because we did the wrong thing and then not do the sin again. Yes, we know we may fail, but it's not about "making God sad and not wanting to get kicked out of the house". It's about trying to be a good person and do the right thing even when it's hard.
According to the Catholics I know, (and I have an aunt who happens to be a nun, served in Rome and everything), this is the Catholic view as well, so I'm a little confused about corb's experience. But: lived experience is lived experience, and I can't say I don't recognize that kind of attitude, and not from just one denomination.
posted by mrgoat at 2:58 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
According to the Catholics I know, (and I have an aunt who happens to be a nun, served in Rome and everything), this is the Catholic view as well, so I'm a little confused about corb's experience. But: lived experience is lived experience, and I can't say I don't recognize that kind of attitude, and not from just one denomination.
posted by mrgoat at 2:58 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I don't think any Orthodox church of any stripe would recognize a confession with the underlying attitude that "my sins are awesome" was remotely valid or healing. That isn't to say their aren't people who make those sorts of confessions, of course.
posted by pattern juggler at 3:09 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
posted by pattern juggler at 3:09 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
One thing I'm seeing a lot of the last couple days is liberal and left-leaning folks dismissing even the possibility of election fraud or interference out of hand, evidently for fear that to do otherwise is somehow denying or excusing the existence of racism, sexism, and various other deplorablisms in the electorate.
In addition, there’s also no evidence of any election fraud, so that may also be a reason, in addition to any inscrutable unmeasurable psychological motives, why people may be dismissive of allegations of election fraud.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:20 PM on November 9 [11 favorites]
In addition, there’s also no evidence of any election fraud, so that may also be a reason, in addition to any inscrutable unmeasurable psychological motives, why people may be dismissive of allegations of election fraud.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:20 PM on November 9 [11 favorites]
I don't think any Orthodox church of any stripe would recognize a confession with the underlying attitude that "my sins are awesome" was remotely valid or healing
I mean, I was trying to kind of oversimply for getting the point across. But the actual thing is more that it's - as expressed by the priests I've spoken with about this - considered acceptable and even normal to have a different understanding than God or the doctrine has, as long as you accept that according to the rules of the religion/church you are wrong and God is right. There are a lot of rules, and they are complicated - no one is expected to understand the reasons for all of them. If you consider it as a parental relationship, then sometimes you will be saying that you're sorry you're disappointing your father, even if you think the actions are important or don't understand why your actions disappoint him.
(doctrinally, the contrition out of fear alone is an imperfect contrition: it is sufficient for the sacrament per the Council of Trent because it is believed it will eventually lead you towards perfect contrition)
So by that understanding, even though it's better if someone truly wants to do the thing and believes it to be good, it's still a start if someone makes the apology because they don't want to be punished, and that start will eventually get the person to the other place. So it's thus not our place to judge the fear-confession as inadequate under that theory.
posted by corb at 3:52 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
I mean, I was trying to kind of oversimply for getting the point across. But the actual thing is more that it's - as expressed by the priests I've spoken with about this - considered acceptable and even normal to have a different understanding than God or the doctrine has, as long as you accept that according to the rules of the religion/church you are wrong and God is right. There are a lot of rules, and they are complicated - no one is expected to understand the reasons for all of them. If you consider it as a parental relationship, then sometimes you will be saying that you're sorry you're disappointing your father, even if you think the actions are important or don't understand why your actions disappoint him.
(doctrinally, the contrition out of fear alone is an imperfect contrition: it is sufficient for the sacrament per the Council of Trent because it is believed it will eventually lead you towards perfect contrition)
“it not only does not make man a hypocrite and a greater sinner, but that it is even a gift of God, and an impulse of the Holy Spirit, who does not indeed as yet dwell in the penitent, but who only moves him; whereby the penitent, being assisted, prepares a way for himself unto justice, and although this attrition cannot of itself, without the Sacrament of Penance, conduct the sinner to justification, yet does it dispose him to receive the grace of God in the Sacrament of Penance. For smitten profitably with fear, the Ninivites at the preaching of Jonas did fearful penance and obtained mercy from the Lord.This is distinguished from perfect contrition, which comes from loving God above everything. But both forms of contrition grant absolution during confession.
So by that understanding, even though it's better if someone truly wants to do the thing and believes it to be good, it's still a start if someone makes the apology because they don't want to be punished, and that start will eventually get the person to the other place. So it's thus not our place to judge the fear-confession as inadequate under that theory.
posted by corb at 3:52 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
One thing I'm seeing a lot of the last couple days is liberal and left-leaning folks dismissing even the possibility of election fraud or interference out of hand, evidently for fear that to do otherwise is somehow denying or excusing the existence of racism, sexism, and various other deplorablisms in the electorate.
In addition, there’s also no evidence of any election fraud, so that may also be a reason, in
addition to any inscrutable unmeasurable psychological motives, why people may be dismissive
of allegations of election fraud.
The fires in ballot boxes, the bomb threats to polling sites, and the social media/texts with misinformation count might count as efforts at voter interference but probably are not actually fraud, especially since it is unknown who, if anyone, was adversely impacted.
posted by beaning at 3:54 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
In addition, there’s also no evidence of any election fraud, so that may also be a reason, in
addition to any inscrutable unmeasurable psychological motives, why people may be dismissive
of allegations of election fraud.
The fires in ballot boxes, the bomb threats to polling sites, and the social media/texts with misinformation count might count as efforts at voter interference but probably are not actually fraud, especially since it is unknown who, if anyone, was adversely impacted.
posted by beaning at 3:54 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
I think the truth about how non-raping non-felons who voted for Trump square their own lives with their vote for Trump is much simpler: They don't have a parasocial relationship with Donald Trump.
We're all very familiar with voters who do have a parasocial relationship with Donald Trump -- the culty ones. But do you really think 74 million people feel that strongly about him? I don't.
When an artist or an athlete we admire turns out to be a rapist or a criminal or whatever the case may be, we're crushed. Because even though we don't know that person, they feel like a friend. Like a close friend. Though they will never know it, we have let them into our dearest hearts. That's parasociality.
Sometimes people feel that way about politicians, especially when we're young. But I don't think the average voter is necessarily worried about whether the person they're voting for is a good person. Frankly, by now I think we all know they probably aren't, just by default. And I think most Trump voters just aren't worried about whether he's a good person.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:28 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]
We're all very familiar with voters who do have a parasocial relationship with Donald Trump -- the culty ones. But do you really think 74 million people feel that strongly about him? I don't.
When an artist or an athlete we admire turns out to be a rapist or a criminal or whatever the case may be, we're crushed. Because even though we don't know that person, they feel like a friend. Like a close friend. Though they will never know it, we have let them into our dearest hearts. That's parasociality.
Sometimes people feel that way about politicians, especially when we're young. But I don't think the average voter is necessarily worried about whether the person they're voting for is a good person. Frankly, by now I think we all know they probably aren't, just by default. And I think most Trump voters just aren't worried about whether he's a good person.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:28 PM on November 9 [10 favorites]
And I think most Trump voters just aren't worried
...aren't worried don't care/ actively endorse.
posted by porpoise at 4:52 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
...
posted by porpoise at 4:52 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
The Worst (and Best!) Election Takes I’ve Seen So Far
Hank Green YT
posted by Glinn at 4:59 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
Hank Green YT
posted by Glinn at 4:59 PM on November 9 [1 favorite]
But I don't think the average voter is necessarily worried about whether the person they're voting for is a good person. Frankly, by now I think we all know they probably aren't, just by default. And I think most Trump voters just aren't worried about whether he's a good person.
This exactly describes the answers I got when I asked Facebook friends who are Evangelical Christians why they supported Trump:
posted by clawsoon at 5:11 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]
This exactly describes the answers I got when I asked Facebook friends who are Evangelical Christians why they supported Trump:
I think that as a man he is far from being any kind of Christian. I wouldn't support him for who he is. But how he runs and country is better aligned with the values and end outcomes Christians want to see. I don't vote for the personalities and lives of the individuals, I vote for what their actions in government policy bring about.I followed up with a question about what his policies are, other than appointing the judges who overturned Roe v. Wade, that are pro-Christian. A few days have passed, and I don't think I'll be getting an answer.
posted by clawsoon at 5:11 PM on November 9 [6 favorites]
No, I meant what I said. I think some don't care, I think some endorse, but I think most of them just compartmentalize it. The same way, frankly, democratic voters were expected to compartmentalize Kamala Harris' endorsement of genocide, her pro-gun stance, her track record as a prosecutor...I could go on. "But on balance," you say. Sure, of course, on balance.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:00 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:00 PM on November 9 [5 favorites]
I followed up with a question about what his policies are, other than appointing the judges who overturned Roe v. Wade, that are pro-Christian. A few days have passed, and I don't think I'll be getting an answer.
Because the answer is expletives about minorities and about what a woman's place in society is. I'm still to this day flabbergasted that that Fox News host said that unreal stuff about "Scientists say if you vote for a woman, you become a woman". And that guy still has a job. Malcolm said the most disrespected person is the Black woman and boy was that right.
Trump has done a littany of disqualifying things. It might be time to go through them all since some people are still trying to normalize him or those people who ignore those things or try to act like there is any current politician even close to Trump.
posted by cashman at 6:02 PM on November 9 [12 favorites]
Because the answer is expletives about minorities and about what a woman's place in society is. I'm still to this day flabbergasted that that Fox News host said that unreal stuff about "Scientists say if you vote for a woman, you become a woman". And that guy still has a job. Malcolm said the most disrespected person is the Black woman and boy was that right.
Trump has done a littany of disqualifying things. It might be time to go through them all since some people are still trying to normalize him or those people who ignore those things or try to act like there is any current politician even close to Trump.
posted by cashman at 6:02 PM on November 9 [12 favorites]
The same way, frankly, democratic voters were expected to compartmentalize Kamala Harris' endorsement of genocide, her pro-gun stance, her track record as a prosecutor...I could go on
Apparently only white voters and Cuban voters felt the need to compartmentalize so I’d like to know why.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:37 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Apparently only white voters and Cuban voters felt the need to compartmentalize so I’d like to know why.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:37 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
Bullies win because bullies will harass you until you're gone/dead and nothing will stop them and nobody ever will.
posted by jenfullmoon
The most dangerous people of all are those who get their rocks off in the act of forcing submission, of conquering. Not the subsequent passive state of their victim being conquered, of having submitted, but the active process of forcing the victim to do so. Once the bully has done that, they need to keep doing it again and again to get their hit. Their lust to subjugate can never be satisfied. They cannot do peacetime, only endless war, endless acts of dominance.
Hence, because people can only offer so much actual submission, the ongoing cycle of forcing re-submission just gets increasingly petty, arbitrary, degrading, and cruel. The moment you have submitted, the bully starts dreaming up the next demand for an even more pointless performative kowtowing. Just so they can demonstrate to the world and themselves that they can make you do it.
posted by Pouteria at 7:02 PM on November 9 [15 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon
The most dangerous people of all are those who get their rocks off in the act of forcing submission, of conquering. Not the subsequent passive state of their victim being conquered, of having submitted, but the active process of forcing the victim to do so. Once the bully has done that, they need to keep doing it again and again to get their hit. Their lust to subjugate can never be satisfied. They cannot do peacetime, only endless war, endless acts of dominance.
Hence, because people can only offer so much actual submission, the ongoing cycle of forcing re-submission just gets increasingly petty, arbitrary, degrading, and cruel. The moment you have submitted, the bully starts dreaming up the next demand for an even more pointless performative kowtowing. Just so they can demonstrate to the world and themselves that they can make you do it.
posted by Pouteria at 7:02 PM on November 9 [15 favorites]
Welp, at least she didn't tell us to "calm down" this tme. Small blessings.
posted by non canadian guy at 7:03 PM on November 9
posted by non canadian guy at 7:03 PM on November 9
>The sad truth is most people don't give a shit about genocide unless they're personally involved.
Your average person, regardless of nationality and other considerations, will assure you that OF COURSE they think genocide is bad. And then ignore it.
"Never again" has a never spoken second clause: "with us as victims, fuck everyone else."
posted by sotonohito
>One reason people don't want to hear about Palestine is because they know they would have to care, and they feel they probably couldn't actually do much and they feel that they are already overburdened with work, rent, loneliness, etc.
posted by Frowner
Has long been my view that the reaction of most people when confronted with any of the myriad horrors happening to others in this world is some version of three thoughts, in fairly quick succession:
Fuck that is appalling.
Thank God it didn't happen to me.
I don't want to know any more about it.
In fairness, there is not a lot more most people can do in these situations, and hence at the cold practical level there is little value in them dwelling on it any further. It is not so much that people don't care, it is more that we are all limited by the hard reality of our very finite capacity for emotion, thought, and action. Even in the best and most robust of us cannot take on all the evils in this world.
So we must choose where and how to spend our capacity for best effect. Which does not make it worthless or less laudable, just inherently finite.
Truth is that we need a little selfishness and indifference to it all just to make it through each day. As long as it does not become any more than necessary.
The only moral obligations on an individual are to try not make it any worse, and to not get in the way of those trying to do something about it, and at least appreciate and acknowledge their efforts even if you are not pitching in directly yourself.
posted by Pouteria at 7:10 PM on November 9 [18 favorites]
Your average person, regardless of nationality and other considerations, will assure you that OF COURSE they think genocide is bad. And then ignore it.
"Never again" has a never spoken second clause: "with us as victims, fuck everyone else."
posted by sotonohito
>One reason people don't want to hear about Palestine is because they know they would have to care, and they feel they probably couldn't actually do much and they feel that they are already overburdened with work, rent, loneliness, etc.
posted by Frowner
Has long been my view that the reaction of most people when confronted with any of the myriad horrors happening to others in this world is some version of three thoughts, in fairly quick succession:
Fuck that is appalling.
Thank God it didn't happen to me.
I don't want to know any more about it.
In fairness, there is not a lot more most people can do in these situations, and hence at the cold practical level there is little value in them dwelling on it any further. It is not so much that people don't care, it is more that we are all limited by the hard reality of our very finite capacity for emotion, thought, and action. Even in the best and most robust of us cannot take on all the evils in this world.
So we must choose where and how to spend our capacity for best effect. Which does not make it worthless or less laudable, just inherently finite.
Truth is that we need a little selfishness and indifference to it all just to make it through each day. As long as it does not become any more than necessary.
The only moral obligations on an individual are to try not make it any worse, and to not get in the way of those trying to do something about it, and at least appreciate and acknowledge their efforts even if you are not pitching in directly yourself.
posted by Pouteria at 7:10 PM on November 9 [18 favorites]
116k voted for Trumpism, 98K for status quo, and 290K didn't vote at all
posted by torokunai
There it is, folks. The whole fucking problem in a nutshell. Even in the most "important election your lifetimes" – and it was – the USA is still struggling to get even half the voters to even try.
Difficult to maintain much sympathy about the inevitable consequences for its citizens when they chose them, actively or passively.
If you don't vote, and vote smart (i.e. strategically, especially in a FPTP electoral system), then you don't matter to the political system. You and your concerns will be completely ignored.
posted by Pouteria at 8:26 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
posted by torokunai
There it is, folks. The whole fucking problem in a nutshell. Even in the most "important election your lifetimes" – and it was – the USA is still struggling to get even half the voters to even try.
Difficult to maintain much sympathy about the inevitable consequences for its citizens when they chose them, actively or passively.
If you don't vote, and vote smart (i.e. strategically, especially in a FPTP electoral system), then you don't matter to the political system. You and your concerns will be completely ignored.
posted by Pouteria at 8:26 PM on November 9 [4 favorites]
I'm with caviar and Pouteria. This election opened my eyes to how minorities, women, and youth are no less evil than Musk, Bezos, and Confederates.
posted by ichomp at 9:19 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
posted by ichomp at 9:19 PM on November 9 [3 favorites]
>the USA is still struggling to get even half the voters to even try.
California makes it as easy as possible to vote, too. Motor-voter laws. Vote centers open two weeks before Election Day, no-excuse free mail-in ballots. It took me literally two minutes to make my vote.
posted by torokunai at 9:37 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
California makes it as easy as possible to vote, too. Motor-voter laws. Vote centers open two weeks before Election Day, no-excuse free mail-in ballots. It took me literally two minutes to make my vote.
posted by torokunai at 9:37 PM on November 9 [2 favorites]
This election opened my eyes to how minorities, women, and youth are no less evil than Musk, Bezos, and Confederates.
I feel you on the, like, immediate feels behind this, but also I reject this outright. A failure to be motivated to vote, as an individual citizen, in a deeply fucky system is not evil in the way that motivated desire to cause harm as a billionaire with wildly outsized monetary and political influence is.
Voting is a relatively easy act for a rando citizen to accomplish in and among the other random shit they need to get through on any given day, and they *should* set aside a little more time and energy to get it done because, yeah, it's important, but they are living their fucking lives one-by-one and work and laundry and dinner and etc. also need to get done. You can look at that and say, hey, fuckin' priorities, this shit is important, but it's still each individual person's day-to-day to try and sort out.
The tech billionaires and the career politicos and the motivated power-brokering racists and authoritarians that choose to spend their days trying to organize political awfulness are spending the same 24 hours a day doing as much harm as possible with outsized reach and power multiplication via cash and networks. Proactive harm with purpose and amplification is not the same thing as passive harm through failure to take individual action.
Be angry that people didn't vote. Try to figure out how to get them to vote next time. But fuck's sake do not fall into the nonsense gulf of equating John Q. Random Didn't Vote morally with Elon Musk Wants Trans People To Die, etc. Fuck all of that noise.
posted by cortex at 11:28 PM on November 9 [42 favorites]
I feel you on the, like, immediate feels behind this, but also I reject this outright. A failure to be motivated to vote, as an individual citizen, in a deeply fucky system is not evil in the way that motivated desire to cause harm as a billionaire with wildly outsized monetary and political influence is.
Voting is a relatively easy act for a rando citizen to accomplish in and among the other random shit they need to get through on any given day, and they *should* set aside a little more time and energy to get it done because, yeah, it's important, but they are living their fucking lives one-by-one and work and laundry and dinner and etc. also need to get done. You can look at that and say, hey, fuckin' priorities, this shit is important, but it's still each individual person's day-to-day to try and sort out.
The tech billionaires and the career politicos and the motivated power-brokering racists and authoritarians that choose to spend their days trying to organize political awfulness are spending the same 24 hours a day doing as much harm as possible with outsized reach and power multiplication via cash and networks. Proactive harm with purpose and amplification is not the same thing as passive harm through failure to take individual action.
Be angry that people didn't vote. Try to figure out how to get them to vote next time. But fuck's sake do not fall into the nonsense gulf of equating John Q. Random Didn't Vote morally with Elon Musk Wants Trans People To Die, etc. Fuck all of that noise.
posted by cortex at 11:28 PM on November 9 [42 favorites]
Proactive harm with purpose and amplification is not the same thing as passive harm through failure to take individual action.
The results will be the same. Reap what you sow.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:08 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
The results will be the same. Reap what you sow.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:08 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
Because the answer is expletives about minorities and about what a woman's place in society is.
In this particular case, I wouldn't expect any expletives or racism, but instead opposition to abortion, gay marriage, trans people, and child trafficking.
posted by clawsoon at 3:22 AM on November 10
In this particular case, I wouldn't expect any expletives or racism, but instead opposition to abortion, gay marriage, trans people, and child trafficking.
posted by clawsoon at 3:22 AM on November 10
Still a useful question to have asked, though.
Inside the conservative bubble, "I just prefer his policies" functions as a thought-terminating excuse for unexamined implicit bias. When one conservative says that to another, the response is generally a nod of agreement and the conversation moving on to excoriating some completely made-up alleged Democratic policy. The question of what policies are preferable to those simply doesn't arise.
So asking what TFG's preferable policies are is valuable, because it opens an opportunity to realize that the fucker doesn't actually have any, consistently getting by on concepts of a plan of a policy instead.
It's an opportunity that probably won't be taken, but opening it does no harm.
posted by flabdablet at 3:44 AM on November 10 [8 favorites]
Inside the conservative bubble, "I just prefer his policies" functions as a thought-terminating excuse for unexamined implicit bias. When one conservative says that to another, the response is generally a nod of agreement and the conversation moving on to excoriating some completely made-up alleged Democratic policy. The question of what policies are preferable to those simply doesn't arise.
So asking what TFG's preferable policies are is valuable, because it opens an opportunity to realize that the fucker doesn't actually have any, consistently getting by on concepts of a plan of a policy instead.
It's an opportunity that probably won't be taken, but opening it does no harm.
posted by flabdablet at 3:44 AM on November 10 [8 favorites]
some version of three thoughts, in fairly quick succession:
Fuck that is appalling.
Thank God it didn't happen to me.
I don't want to know any more about it.
The literal Asmongold take. Who commentators probably should be talking about as much as Rogan and Tate, but he's not polished enough for TV and a lot slipperier to deal with than a purer ideologue. Being somewhat of a funhouse mirror reflection of the disgruntled white, male rotter vote the Dems think they need more than their base. And spending most of his time on culture that even cable news wants to treat as beneath them (its own irony).
Crazy as it sounds, the Dems might have been able to move the needle had they gone after abusive software publishing & DRM practices over the past four years. So that the politicization of video games hadn't narrowed to the industry's 'forced adoption of woke' or whatever.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:32 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
Fuck that is appalling.
Thank God it didn't happen to me.
I don't want to know any more about it.
The literal Asmongold take. Who commentators probably should be talking about as much as Rogan and Tate, but he's not polished enough for TV and a lot slipperier to deal with than a purer ideologue. Being somewhat of a funhouse mirror reflection of the disgruntled white, male rotter vote the Dems think they need more than their base. And spending most of his time on culture that even cable news wants to treat as beneath them (its own irony).
Crazy as it sounds, the Dems might have been able to move the needle had they gone after abusive software publishing & DRM practices over the past four years. So that the politicization of video games hadn't narrowed to the industry's 'forced adoption of woke' or whatever.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:32 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
The whole episode of his Gaza commentary, quick apology arc and promise to be a better person, and now gleeful return to farming GOP triumphalism and Dem panic unfolding in a few weeks says something, too.
Being able to trace the current moment back through GamerGate is a bleak feeling.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:39 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]
Being able to trace the current moment back through GamerGate is a bleak feeling.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:39 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]
“Swept into the flood,” Andrea Pitzer, Degenerate Art, 09 November 2024
What history tells us about what comes next, and what to do about it.posted by ob1quixote at 5:48 AM on November 10 [4 favorites]
“Ten Free Ebooks for Getting Free,” Haymarket Books, 08 November 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 6:07 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 6:07 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]
This election opened my eyes to how minorities, women, and youth are no less evil than Musk, Bezos, and Confederates.
I feel you on the, like, immediate feels behind this, but also I reject this outright
I agree with your conclusion, but I am also 99% sure that ichomp was being sarcastic.
The results will be the same. Reap what you sow.
The majority who turned out to vote chose Trump. This wasn't a loss due to apathy or protest votes. There is no reason to suspect high turnout would have changed the results.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:18 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
I feel you on the, like, immediate feels behind this, but also I reject this outright
I agree with your conclusion, but I am also 99% sure that ichomp was being sarcastic.
The results will be the same. Reap what you sow.
The majority who turned out to vote chose Trump. This wasn't a loss due to apathy or protest votes. There is no reason to suspect high turnout would have changed the results.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:18 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
"Republican Gabe Evans holds lead over Democrat Yadira Caraveo, but winner in Colorado’s CD8 won’t be clear until Thursday"
Caraveo's the D incumbent in a newly drawn competitive district.
Mailers and online ads I saw by her campaign her allied PACs emphasized how Caraveo was tough on drugs and border security and was bipartisan, working with Republicans.
In turn, Evans (R) and allied PACs flooded the ad market saying Caraveo was weak on border security and a liberal extremist. One particularly nauseating ad run ad nauseum trotted out a mother whose daughter died of fentanyl. The mom would look to the camera and state the Caraveo's policies killed her daughter.
I don't have an easy or quick answer for what can be done differently, especially since we need to consider ways to begin fighting against a monied and ideological machine the right has been building since the days of FDR. Successful strategies also need ways to negotiate the intragroup tensions that repeatedly undermine coalitions and vitiate solidarity.
I do feel like current strategies are turning out best, in material outcomes, for the Democratic consulting and ad industries and for power incumbents within the Party itself.
posted by audi alteram partem at 6:26 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
Caraveo's the D incumbent in a newly drawn competitive district.
Mailers and online ads I saw by her campaign her allied PACs emphasized how Caraveo was tough on drugs and border security and was bipartisan, working with Republicans.
In turn, Evans (R) and allied PACs flooded the ad market saying Caraveo was weak on border security and a liberal extremist. One particularly nauseating ad run ad nauseum trotted out a mother whose daughter died of fentanyl. The mom would look to the camera and state the Caraveo's policies killed her daughter.
I don't have an easy or quick answer for what can be done differently, especially since we need to consider ways to begin fighting against a monied and ideological machine the right has been building since the days of FDR. Successful strategies also need ways to negotiate the intragroup tensions that repeatedly undermine coalitions and vitiate solidarity.
I do feel like current strategies are turning out best, in material outcomes, for the Democratic consulting and ad industries and for power incumbents within the Party itself.
posted by audi alteram partem at 6:26 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
The majority who turned out to vote chose Trump. This wasn't a loss due to apathy or protest votes. There is no reason to suspect high turnout would have changed the results.
I mean, the majority of white people did. He still lost basically every other demographic like he did the last two times. And if the level of ticket splitting that may have happened ends up being true, what else could it be but apathy or a protest that has someone vote for the Democratic senator but not the Democratic president?
posted by girlmightlive at 6:32 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]
I mean, the majority of white people did. He still lost basically every other demographic like he did the last two times. And if the level of ticket splitting that may have happened ends up being true, what else could it be but apathy or a protest that has someone vote for the Democratic senator but not the Democratic president?
posted by girlmightlive at 6:32 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]
It isn't a protest vote when you vote for the other major candidate. People don't always vote straight party line. I don't think we have any good reason to believe that 100% turnout wouldn't still have delivered the presidency to Trump.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:38 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 6:38 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
If Trump won majorities across the board I would agree. But it still needs to be understood why majorities of Black people, Jewish people, Muslim people, Latinos sans Cubans, had no problem voting for Harris but white people did.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:45 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:45 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]
He still lost basically every other demographic like he did the last two times.
posted by girlmightlive
He also only won the 45-64 age bracket. Every other age bracket broke for Harris.
I don't think we have any good reason to believe that 100% turnout wouldn't still have delivered the presidency to Trump.
posted by pattern juggler
Don't know the stats on turnout by age, but if they are not even – and they usually are not – then he could well have lost if there was 100% turnout.
posted by Pouteria at 6:52 AM on November 10 [4 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive
He also only won the 45-64 age bracket. Every other age bracket broke for Harris.
I don't think we have any good reason to believe that 100% turnout wouldn't still have delivered the presidency to Trump.
posted by pattern juggler
Don't know the stats on turnout by age, but if they are not even – and they usually are not – then he could well have lost if there was 100% turnout.
posted by Pouteria at 6:52 AM on November 10 [4 favorites]
I'm not remotely denying racism and misogyny played a role in Harris' loss. (Trump did win, narrowly, with Latino men, but racism and misogyny are not non-factors there, either). I just doubt there was some deep reserve of passionately progressive people who decided to skip this one. I think the result we got was the result of an ignorant and bigoted electorate, angry over grievances real and imagined.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:56 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 6:56 AM on November 10 [5 favorites]
That anger and ignorance is mostly white, but unfortunately so is the US.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:58 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
posted by pattern juggler at 6:58 AM on November 10 [1 favorite]
I do feel like current strategies are turning out best, in material outcomes, for the Democratic consulting and ad industries and for power incumbents within the Party itself.
I think this really is the key point. These people are a parasitic class who fail at their stated goal (to win elections) but succeed at their unstated goals (to keep making money from donations, and to have their particular social values reflected in the party advertising (subgoal: to keep meeting celebrities)). Imagine running against that class: You'd be broke, but you'd be able to correctly position yourself as a political outsider, running up against a machine nobody likes.
We talked over the past few months about how a Trump loss would end up fracturing the Republicans into 'moderates' and Magas. We should give serious thought to what it would take to fracture the Democrats.
posted by mittens at 7:05 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]
I think this really is the key point. These people are a parasitic class who fail at their stated goal (to win elections) but succeed at their unstated goals (to keep making money from donations, and to have their particular social values reflected in the party advertising (subgoal: to keep meeting celebrities)). Imagine running against that class: You'd be broke, but you'd be able to correctly position yourself as a political outsider, running up against a machine nobody likes.
We talked over the past few months about how a Trump loss would end up fracturing the Republicans into 'moderates' and Magas. We should give serious thought to what it would take to fracture the Democrats.
posted by mittens at 7:05 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]
The Starlink/Musk connection to vote tabulation + Trump’s “little secret” + Dem voters discovering online it seems their ballots were not counted, etc = a fresh “conspiracy theory” of the left/ish (for lack of better terms). This line of thinking is quickly gaining traction amongst Gen Z - who, crucially, ALSO acknowledge misogynoir was a core reason Harris lost. A “heist” by Elon Musk is how the youth are framing it.
Not sure what to make of this in terms of the psychology here. Denial stage of grief? Hopium that “justice” will still somehow be served in the 11th hour? Folks are not ready to move on to the fascist order? The clever hooks conspiracy theories somehow engage in human brains?
posted by edithkeeler at 7:31 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
Not sure what to make of this in terms of the psychology here. Denial stage of grief? Hopium that “justice” will still somehow be served in the 11th hour? Folks are not ready to move on to the fascist order? The clever hooks conspiracy theories somehow engage in human brains?
posted by edithkeeler at 7:31 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
Imagine running against that class: You'd be broke, but you'd be able to correctly position yourself as a political outsider, running up against a machine nobody likes.
Yes, I think there's space for change here, though my imaginings right now are fairly dark.
Working Families held an call this past week that made some good points, including about the role of undue monied influence in the current Democratic Party regime. What I really appreciated was their intersectional analysis that took a both/and approach to analysis where class and economics shared space with analysis of the white supremacist authoritarian culture cultivated among the right.
What I appreciated less were the trappings of corporate style, top-down organizing. Throughout the call, the facilitator kept urging higher numbers of sign-ups for meeting hosts. On the one hand, I appreciate that groups need goals and metrics to measure those goals. On the other hand, the numbers focus had me flashing back to workplace experiences with bosses obsessed with numbers that in no way measured the quality of the work.
When I look at organizing efforts, I'm continually thinking about adrienne maree brown's warning about dominant, linear organizing patterns that rely on "charismatic individuals or budget-building institutions" and a model that "falls back into the oppressive tendencies against which we claim to be pushing."
The INCITE! collection The Revolution Will Not Be Funded is another good exploration of how dominant unjust systems infiltrate organizations trying to oppose those systems. The book has some guidance on strategies that could work, but those feel ill-fit to the current moment, especially when they involve building resilient local institutions, which requires community-building and facilitation skills that have been under attack for decades.
posted by audi alteram partem at 7:49 AM on November 10 [11 favorites]
Yes, I think there's space for change here, though my imaginings right now are fairly dark.
Working Families held an call this past week that made some good points, including about the role of undue monied influence in the current Democratic Party regime. What I really appreciated was their intersectional analysis that took a both/and approach to analysis where class and economics shared space with analysis of the white supremacist authoritarian culture cultivated among the right.
What I appreciated less were the trappings of corporate style, top-down organizing. Throughout the call, the facilitator kept urging higher numbers of sign-ups for meeting hosts. On the one hand, I appreciate that groups need goals and metrics to measure those goals. On the other hand, the numbers focus had me flashing back to workplace experiences with bosses obsessed with numbers that in no way measured the quality of the work.
When I look at organizing efforts, I'm continually thinking about adrienne maree brown's warning about dominant, linear organizing patterns that rely on "charismatic individuals or budget-building institutions" and a model that "falls back into the oppressive tendencies against which we claim to be pushing."
The INCITE! collection The Revolution Will Not Be Funded is another good exploration of how dominant unjust systems infiltrate organizations trying to oppose those systems. The book has some guidance on strategies that could work, but those feel ill-fit to the current moment, especially when they involve building resilient local institutions, which requires community-building and facilitation skills that have been under attack for decades.
posted by audi alteram partem at 7:49 AM on November 10 [11 favorites]
That anger and ignorance is mostly white, but unfortunately so is the US.
I don't know, I just read (in The Atlantic) that the only racial group TFG lost support to turned out to be white (dropped by a percentage point; in raw numbers you're probably right? Still, TFG has tapped support from a broad coalition).
Anecdotally, I overheard a coworker (non-white female) after the debates say something like "I think he can still win. And I don't know, I just think a man would be stronger dealing with other countries". As if Harris didn't walk over him just by mentioning rally size. As if the worst world leaders don't know he can easily manipulated through flattery and bribery. And he could be powerless if people didn't give him the very seat of power (and yet!).
The minority MAGA might be loudly/overtly racist and sexist, but the mushy middle need only have 'doubts' (i.e. 'men and women are equal, but maybe men are more forceful overall…', 'I'm not racist but what will happen to me/my community if we are overrun by 'others'…'). It's not full-throated hate, but they are cracks to be exploited. I think this 'light' racism and misogyny worked hand in hand with right-wing media/social media in creating some min/max solution: 1) minimize the 'threat' of TFG; and 2) maximize the fear (fear of… whatever. It doesn't even have to be consistent: racism, sexism, 'economic anxiety'; whatever, be creative). Inflation just made the job of amping up fear that much easier.
Maybe it's a distinction that doesn't matter. But maybe Americans are just scared instead of hateful/angry. Maybe that's the difference between rule by oligarchs/authoritarians and a radicalized fascist state. Here's hoping TFG is just lazy and greedy. I guess that's what passes off as hope these days. :\
posted by mazola at 8:19 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]
I don't know, I just read (in The Atlantic) that the only racial group TFG lost support to turned out to be white (dropped by a percentage point; in raw numbers you're probably right? Still, TFG has tapped support from a broad coalition).
Anecdotally, I overheard a coworker (non-white female) after the debates say something like "I think he can still win. And I don't know, I just think a man would be stronger dealing with other countries". As if Harris didn't walk over him just by mentioning rally size. As if the worst world leaders don't know he can easily manipulated through flattery and bribery. And he could be powerless if people didn't give him the very seat of power (and yet!).
The minority MAGA might be loudly/overtly racist and sexist, but the mushy middle need only have 'doubts' (i.e. 'men and women are equal, but maybe men are more forceful overall…', 'I'm not racist but what will happen to me/my community if we are overrun by 'others'…'). It's not full-throated hate, but they are cracks to be exploited. I think this 'light' racism and misogyny worked hand in hand with right-wing media/social media in creating some min/max solution: 1) minimize the 'threat' of TFG; and 2) maximize the fear (fear of… whatever. It doesn't even have to be consistent: racism, sexism, 'economic anxiety'; whatever, be creative). Inflation just made the job of amping up fear that much easier.
Maybe it's a distinction that doesn't matter. But maybe Americans are just scared instead of hateful/angry. Maybe that's the difference between rule by oligarchs/authoritarians and a radicalized fascist state. Here's hoping TFG is just lazy and greedy. I guess that's what passes off as hope these days. :\
posted by mazola at 8:19 AM on November 10 [9 favorites]
opposition to ... child trafficking
Not really related to what I'm going to say except that it sparked the thought: Our own (often vehement) opposition to things like FOSTA using slippery slope arguments can often serve to draw a false equivalence in the minds of the low information set.
I well recall people saying that it was going to ban porn, so it's no wonder that people gave zero shits when told that Project 2025 proposes..banning porn. Why care about any of that stuff when you're pretty sure you heard that the Democrats were trying to do the same thing?
posted by wierdo at 8:56 AM on November 10
Not really related to what I'm going to say except that it sparked the thought: Our own (often vehement) opposition to things like FOSTA using slippery slope arguments can often serve to draw a false equivalence in the minds of the low information set.
I well recall people saying that it was going to ban porn, so it's no wonder that people gave zero shits when told that Project 2025 proposes..banning porn. Why care about any of that stuff when you're pretty sure you heard that the Democrats were trying to do the same thing?
posted by wierdo at 8:56 AM on November 10
Just so I can judge random people I run into in public, I thought I'd run a couple percentages. Roughly, for any random eligible voter ("VEP") (244 million), about 31% voted for Trump (75 million), 29% for Kalama (71 million), and 40% just didn't participate.
Simplified, one out of three voted for Trump, another one for Kamala, and the largest third just couldn't be bothered.
happy to be corrected if my numbers are wrong
posted by achrise at 10:46 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
Simplified, one out of three voted for Trump, another one for Kamala, and the largest third just couldn't be bothered.
happy to be corrected if my numbers are wrong
posted by achrise at 10:46 AM on November 10 [2 favorites]
And now the elephant in the room is the elephant in the room. Lord help us all.
posted by y2karl at 11:10 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 11:10 AM on November 10 [3 favorites]
cashman re: circular firing squads.
I'm not sure where you're getting that. I mean, I'm a pretty hardcore leftie and I'd LOVE to blame this on Harris but I can't and I don't. I think she was toast no matter what she said and much as I respect corb I think she's wrong on the economy part. Harris had no way forward on the economy because prices are high and she was in office. I think it really is that simple and that there's no actual spin she could have used to make it less of a negative for her.
I do think another thing is that we oversold Trump as a threat.
"Most important election in our lifetimes" and all that. But your average low information American idiot will think "sounds like bullshit, he wasn't a dictator last time he was president" and see no threat to democracy in Trump. I think they're WRONG, but I also think that view will be vindicated (in the minds of the idiots) because the next two years will not involve Trump declaring himself dictator.
posted by sotonohito at 11:30 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]
I'm not sure where you're getting that. I mean, I'm a pretty hardcore leftie and I'd LOVE to blame this on Harris but I can't and I don't. I think she was toast no matter what she said and much as I respect corb I think she's wrong on the economy part. Harris had no way forward on the economy because prices are high and she was in office. I think it really is that simple and that there's no actual spin she could have used to make it less of a negative for her.
I do think another thing is that we oversold Trump as a threat.
"Most important election in our lifetimes" and all that. But your average low information American idiot will think "sounds like bullshit, he wasn't a dictator last time he was president" and see no threat to democracy in Trump. I think they're WRONG, but I also think that view will be vindicated (in the minds of the idiots) because the next two years will not involve Trump declaring himself dictator.
posted by sotonohito at 11:30 AM on November 10 [6 favorites]
I fear to think what the next two years will involve in regards to Ukraine and Taiwan.
posted by y2karl at 12:59 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 12:59 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]
> Harris had no way forward on the economy because prices are high and she was in office
Advocate for price controls. Blame the high prices on greedy billionaires and promise to lower them. Like you can just force the prices to be lower.
Inflation is going to continue to be a problem as climate change impacts agriculture, and as wars continue to impact energy prices. Liberals need a better answer to inflation than letting Jerome Powell raise interest rates. We act like that's the *only* lever we have, but it's pretty bad lever. It relies on reducing demand by reducing investment in the economy, that is, by INCREASING unemployment and REDUCING wages thereby lowering demand for goods. Not lowering the real demand for the, but lowering demand by impacting the ability of consumers to afford things, and thus causing sellers of goods to slow down their production and thus slow down the rate of prices. That's the only way the interest rate lowering theory of inflation control can work, by reducing the capacity of consumers to afford things, pulling on the demand lever of the supply/demand curve.
This is a stupid move, politically, because it impacts the majority of working people negatively. Prices stay high but guess what, you're now less able to afford them. But we act like it's the only thing we can do. This is the further stupidity. We can do lots of things! We can put controls on the prices of key goods, like staple foods, increase income support for these key goods (food stamps), and aggressively punish middlemen who price gouge. Harris/Walz did talk about this a bit during the early period of the campaign but they backed off, I assume from pressure from the only part of their coalition they pay attention to (besides the foreign policy blob): corporate interests who don't want to see their profits impacted.
(They could also impact inflation by pushing for a peace treaty in Ukraine instead of allowing this brutal war of attrition to continue, and forcing Netanyahu to stop his regional murder spree, which threatens to spike energy prices as well).
The liberal consensus across the developed world is that there's nothing you can do to impact prices besides lower interest rates. But of course there's many more things that can be done. Maybe it was too late, but only because Biden/Harris didn't do anything in the time that they had power. This weird self-imposed blindness to the many different levers you can pull on to impact the economy has, it's true, led to a global kind of revolt against the incumbency, regardless of liberal/conservative alignment. This makes sense, because inflation is painful. It also makes sense because the record profits corporations raked in during the period of high inflation are more important to the people who matter than whether their favorite candidates hold political power.
posted by dis_integration at 1:26 PM on November 10 [11 favorites]
Advocate for price controls. Blame the high prices on greedy billionaires and promise to lower them. Like you can just force the prices to be lower.
Inflation is going to continue to be a problem as climate change impacts agriculture, and as wars continue to impact energy prices. Liberals need a better answer to inflation than letting Jerome Powell raise interest rates. We act like that's the *only* lever we have, but it's pretty bad lever. It relies on reducing demand by reducing investment in the economy, that is, by INCREASING unemployment and REDUCING wages thereby lowering demand for goods. Not lowering the real demand for the, but lowering demand by impacting the ability of consumers to afford things, and thus causing sellers of goods to slow down their production and thus slow down the rate of prices. That's the only way the interest rate lowering theory of inflation control can work, by reducing the capacity of consumers to afford things, pulling on the demand lever of the supply/demand curve.
This is a stupid move, politically, because it impacts the majority of working people negatively. Prices stay high but guess what, you're now less able to afford them. But we act like it's the only thing we can do. This is the further stupidity. We can do lots of things! We can put controls on the prices of key goods, like staple foods, increase income support for these key goods (food stamps), and aggressively punish middlemen who price gouge. Harris/Walz did talk about this a bit during the early period of the campaign but they backed off, I assume from pressure from the only part of their coalition they pay attention to (besides the foreign policy blob): corporate interests who don't want to see their profits impacted.
(They could also impact inflation by pushing for a peace treaty in Ukraine instead of allowing this brutal war of attrition to continue, and forcing Netanyahu to stop his regional murder spree, which threatens to spike energy prices as well).
The liberal consensus across the developed world is that there's nothing you can do to impact prices besides lower interest rates. But of course there's many more things that can be done. Maybe it was too late, but only because Biden/Harris didn't do anything in the time that they had power. This weird self-imposed blindness to the many different levers you can pull on to impact the economy has, it's true, led to a global kind of revolt against the incumbency, regardless of liberal/conservative alignment. This makes sense, because inflation is painful. It also makes sense because the record profits corporations raked in during the period of high inflation are more important to the people who matter than whether their favorite candidates hold political power.
posted by dis_integration at 1:26 PM on November 10 [11 favorites]
Advocate for price controls. Blame the high prices on greedy billionaires and promise to lower them. Like you can just force the prices to be lower.
What is ‘price gouging’ and why is VP Harris proposing to ban it?
posted by BungaDunga at 1:41 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
What is ‘price gouging’ and why is VP Harris proposing to ban it?
posted by BungaDunga at 1:41 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
(I absolutely agree she could have gone further, but would anyone have believed her? do price controls fit within people's general idea of who Harris is? would be people believe she really meant it or was just pandering?)
posted by BungaDunga at 1:49 PM on November 10 [3 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 1:49 PM on November 10 [3 favorites]
When Trump tells people what they want to hear he’s telling it like it is. When Dems do it they’re pandering.
posted by girlmightlive at 4:06 PM on November 10 [18 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 4:06 PM on November 10 [18 favorites]
They could also impact inflation by pushing for a peace treaty in Ukraine
I mean, it's hardly as if the war continues only because Washington wants it to. The war continues because Putin intends to push until he can coerce Ukraine into surrender.
y2karl
Yeah, it's going to be tough.
Taiwan perhaps less so, though Trump can turn on a dime he's been talking up China as a threat so supporting Taiwan at least to the extent of discouraging Chinese invasion and conquest would fit with his current (as of right this second) enemies list.
Ukraine.... Yeesh. Yeah. If the Republicans don't cut off all aid for Ukraine then I'll be very surprised.
And hell, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if Trump actually did pull out of NATO [1].
OTOH, Europe and especially the EU has interest in Ukraine not being conquered, so they may be willing and able to match the shortfall from 'Murca. I hope so.
[1] And WTF is up with all this stuff where it takes a fucking 2/3 majority of the Senate to ratify a treaty but apparently the entire treaty can just be trashed on the whim of a single President? Who thought that was a good idea?
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
I mean, it's hardly as if the war continues only because Washington wants it to. The war continues because Putin intends to push until he can coerce Ukraine into surrender.
y2karl
Yeah, it's going to be tough.
Taiwan perhaps less so, though Trump can turn on a dime he's been talking up China as a threat so supporting Taiwan at least to the extent of discouraging Chinese invasion and conquest would fit with his current (as of right this second) enemies list.
Ukraine.... Yeesh. Yeah. If the Republicans don't cut off all aid for Ukraine then I'll be very surprised.
And hell, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if Trump actually did pull out of NATO [1].
OTOH, Europe and especially the EU has interest in Ukraine not being conquered, so they may be willing and able to match the shortfall from 'Murca. I hope so.
[1] And WTF is up with all this stuff where it takes a fucking 2/3 majority of the Senate to ratify a treaty but apparently the entire treaty can just be trashed on the whim of a single President? Who thought that was a good idea?
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
James Madison
posted by clavdivs at 5:14 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 5:14 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
It happened around the turn of the 20th Century.
US Constitution Annotated: ArtII.S2.C2.1.10 Breach and Termination of Treaties, click through for the cases & refs in the notes.
US Constitution Annotated: ArtII.S2.C2.1.10 Breach and Termination of Treaties, click through for the cases & refs in the notes.
During the nineteenth century, government practice treated the power to terminate treaties as shared between the Legislative and Executive Branches. [6] Congress often authorized [7] or instructed [8 ]the President to provide notice of treaty termination to foreign governments during this time. On rare occasions, the Senate alone passed a resolution authorizing the President to terminate a treaty. [9] Presidents often complied with the Legislative Branch’s authorization or direction, [10] although they sometimes resisted attempts to compel termination of specific articles in treaties when the treaties did not authorize partial termination.[11] On other occasions, Congress or the Senate approved the President’s termination after-the-fact, when the Executive Branch had already provided notice of termination to the foreign government. [12]posted by snuffleupagus at 5:18 PM on November 10 [3 favorites]
At the turn of the twentieth century, a new form of treaty termination emerged: unilateral termination by the President without approval by the Legislative Branch. This method first occurred in 1899, when the McKinley Administration terminated certain articles in a commercial treaty with Switzerland, [13] and then again in 1927, when the Coolidge Administration withdrew the United States from a convention to prevent smuggling with Mexico. [14] During the Franklin Roosevelt Administration and World War II, unilateral presidential termination increased markedly. [15] Although Congress at times enacted legislation authorizing or instructing the President to terminate treaties during the twentieth century, [16] unilateral presidential termination became the norm. [17]
Some scholars and Members of Congress have challenged the President’s assertion of unilateral authority to terminate treaties under the rationale that treaty termination is analogous to the termination of federal statutes. [18] Because domestic statutes may be terminated only through the same process in which they were enacted [19] —i.e., through a majority vote in both houses and with the signature of the President or a veto override—these observers contend that treaties likewise must be terminated through a procedure that resembles their making and that includes the Legislative Branch. [20] On the other hand, treaties do not share every feature of federal statutes. Whereas statutes can be enacted over the President’s veto, treaties can never be concluded without the President’s final act of ratification. [21] Moreover, some argue that, just as the President has some unilateral authority to remove Executive Officers who were appointed with senatorial consent, [22] the President may unilaterally terminate treaties made with the Senate’s advice and consent. [23]
The President’s exercise of treaty termination authority has not generated opposition from the Legislative Branch in most cases, but there have been occasions in which Members of Congress sought to block unilateral presidential action. In 1978, a group of Members filed suit in Goldwater v. Carter [24] seeking to prevent President Jimmy Carter from terminating a mutual defense treaty with the government of Taiwan [25] as part of the United States’ recognition of the government of mainland China. [26] A divided Supreme Court ultimately ruled that the litigation should be dismissed, but it did so without reaching the merits of the constitutional question and with no majority opinion. [27] Citing a lack of clear guidance in the Constitution’s text and a reluctance to settle a dispute between coequal branches of our Government each of which has resources available to protect and assert its interests[,] four Justices concluded that the case presented a nonjusticiable political question. [28] This four-Justice opinion, written by Justice William Rehnquist, has proven influential since Goldwater, and federal district courts have invoked the political question doctrine as a basis to dismiss challenges to unilateral treaty terminations by President Ronald Reagan [29] and President George W. Bush. [30]
Regardless of whether constitutional disputes over treaty termination are resolved in federal courts or through the political process, the power of treaty termination may depend on the specific features of the treaty at issue. [31] For example, if termination of a particular treaty implicates the exercise of independent executive powers—such as the power to recognize foreign governments [32]—the President perhaps may have a stronger claim to unilateral authority.[33] On the other hand, if the Senate were to condition its advice and consent to a treaty on a requirement that termination only occur with the approval of the Legislative Branch, some commentators argue that the President would be bound by that condition.[34] Finally, when Congress has passed legislation implementing a treaty into domestic law of the United States, the President likely lacks the authority to terminate the domestic effect of that legislation without going through the full legislative process for repeal of the statute. [35]
A party’s breach of treaty obligations also can affect termination and withdrawal. Under international law, a party may suspend or terminate a treaty if another party materially breaches its obligations. [36] The Supreme Court has appeared to recognize that, at least in the absence of direction from Congress, the President has the power to deem a treaty that has been breached by a foreign nation void and therefore no longer binding. [37] The Court also has stated that Congress possesses the power to breach and abrogate a treaty by passing later-in-time legislation that conflicts with U.S. treaty obligations. [38]
I just doubt there was some deep reserve of passionately progressive people who decided to skip this one.
Then you’re gonna have to figure out how to convince the people who spent a year hearing about Uncommitted and the weekly stories of people who didn’t want to vote because of Gaza or because they are in a “safe state.”
posted by girlmightlive at 6:19 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Then you’re gonna have to figure out how to convince the people who spent a year hearing about Uncommitted and the weekly stories of people who didn’t want to vote because of Gaza or because they are in a “safe state.”
posted by girlmightlive at 6:19 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile,
Caught between Trump and Putin, are European countries ready to go nuclear?
posted by y2karl at 6:20 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Caught between Trump and Putin, are European countries ready to go nuclear?
posted by y2karl at 6:20 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Because there is so, so, SO much room and grace for a repentant sinner.
This isn't just a religious thing. I really like and respect people that own their mistakes. To me it's a mark of competency. We know the mistakes were made and trying to avoid blame for it is weaselly and weak.
posted by VTX at 6:26 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
This isn't just a religious thing. I really like and respect people that own their mistakes. To me it's a mark of competency. We know the mistakes were made and trying to avoid blame for it is weaselly and weak.
posted by VTX at 6:26 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Then you’re gonna have to figure out how to convince the people who spent a year hearing about Uncommitted and the weekly stories of people who didn’t want to vote because of Gaza or because they are in a “safe state.”
Harris lost thoroughly in the swing states. Safe blue or red state voters staying home didn't cost the election.
The Uncommitted movement was right to try to push Harris and Biden away from support for genocide. Asking people to pledge their support to a candidate while he is murdering your family is a level of entitlement and condescension even the Democratic establishment seldom reach.
I haven't seen any evidence that Harris lost many votes in places that matter due to Gaza, except perhaps in Michigan, but if she did that was a known cost of deciding to "stand with Israel". Harris tried to court the actual pro-genocide vote, the people who would abandon her if she took a step back from total support for mass murder. But they picked Trump despite her total capitulation.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:32 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
Harris lost thoroughly in the swing states. Safe blue or red state voters staying home didn't cost the election.
The Uncommitted movement was right to try to push Harris and Biden away from support for genocide. Asking people to pledge their support to a candidate while he is murdering your family is a level of entitlement and condescension even the Democratic establishment seldom reach.
I haven't seen any evidence that Harris lost many votes in places that matter due to Gaza, except perhaps in Michigan, but if she did that was a known cost of deciding to "stand with Israel". Harris tried to court the actual pro-genocide vote, the people who would abandon her if she took a step back from total support for mass murder. But they picked Trump despite her total capitulation.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:32 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
At the turn of the twentieth century, a new form of treaty termination emerged: unilateral termination by the President without approval by the Legislative Branch.
Just 'cause? Where does it say in the Constitution the president can do that? Or can he do it because it doesn't say he can't?
posted by kirkaracha at 6:33 PM on November 10
Just 'cause? Where does it say in the Constitution the president can do that? Or can he do it because it doesn't say he can't?
posted by kirkaracha at 6:33 PM on November 10
I haven't seen any evidence that Harris lost many votes in places that matter due to Gaza, except perhaps in Michigan, but if she did that was a known cost of deciding to "stand with Israel". Harris tried to court the actual pro-genocide vote, the people who would abandon her if she took a step back from total support for mass murder. But they picked Trump despite her total capitulation.
Well you’re gonna be right with maybe nothing to show for it.
If some of the things I’m seeing on social media bear out in real life, you’re gonna need to come up with a way to convince millions of loyal Democratic voters that you’re right and they’re wrong.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:41 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Well you’re gonna be right with maybe nothing to show for it.
If some of the things I’m seeing on social media bear out in real life, you’re gonna need to come up with a way to convince millions of loyal Democratic voters that you’re right and they’re wrong.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:41 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
If some of the things I’m seeing on social media bear out in real life, you’re gonna need to come up with a way to convince millions of loyal Democratic voters that you’re right and they’re wrong.
I have no capacity to stop Democrats from finding scapegoats for their electoral loss, nor would I especially want to try.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:43 PM on November 10
I have no capacity to stop Democrats from finding scapegoats for their electoral loss, nor would I especially want to try.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:43 PM on November 10
I mean, maybe you should try. I feel like you are missing what Black women, the most loyal Democratic voters, are saying about this election.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:47 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:47 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
Harris lost because there were no political ads warning about fascism and potential worse case scenarios. Trump was telling people their kids were being surgically altered in school this week. We live in an era of emotionalism, where intellectual and polite appeals are worthless, even self-defeating.
posted by Brian B. at 6:49 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
posted by Brian B. at 6:49 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
I mean, maybe you should try. I feel like you are missing what Black women, the most loyal Democratic voters, are saying about this election.
Democrats are going to have narratives about why they lost. Those narratives mostly won't have anything to to do with reality. We still have people who bring up provably false narratives about 2016. I don't think there is a thing I can do about that,
posted by pattern juggler at 6:53 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
Democrats are going to have narratives about why they lost. Those narratives mostly won't have anything to to do with reality. We still have people who bring up provably false narratives about 2016. I don't think there is a thing I can do about that,
posted by pattern juggler at 6:53 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
Then please elaborate what you think Black voters are saying about the election that has nothing to do with reality.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:55 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:55 PM on November 10 [4 favorites]
As far as nuclear weapons go, it's been obvious for a while now that having atomic weapons is the ONLY difference between a power that is taken seriously and being a victim.
Look at Pakistan. The government of Pakistan basically sheltered Osama Bin Ladin and the US treated Pakistan as a valued ally despite that. Why? Because Pakistan had nukes, it got them immunity to random tantrums from the US other atomic powers in the form of bombings, dronings, and possibly invasion.
It's clear that the main reason Iran is pursuing nukes is not some fanatical vision of bombing Israel but simply because if they have nukes then the US, Israel, and so on won't just bomb them for fun sometimes.
And then Ukraine happened, twice! It was bad enough with the little green men and a semi-peaceable conquest of a territory with a fair sized percentage of the population who were happy to become Russian citizens.
But Putin's invasion of Ukraine with actual military and no deniability no matter how preposterously unplausible?
It told the world that Ukraine made a huge mistake in surrendering all of its atomic stockpile. No nukes means your nation is in the victim category rather than the serious category.
Every nation that doesn't have atomic weapons is scrambling for them and because of the way geopolitics has gone they are entirely correct in doing so. It would be foolhardy, a dereliction of the duty of the national leaders, if they did not do everything in their power to get nukes. The nuclear club will only grow from now on, no nation will ever surrender all their stockpile agian.
posted by sotonohito at 7:02 PM on November 10 [11 favorites]
Look at Pakistan. The government of Pakistan basically sheltered Osama Bin Ladin and the US treated Pakistan as a valued ally despite that. Why? Because Pakistan had nukes, it got them immunity to random tantrums from the US other atomic powers in the form of bombings, dronings, and possibly invasion.
It's clear that the main reason Iran is pursuing nukes is not some fanatical vision of bombing Israel but simply because if they have nukes then the US, Israel, and so on won't just bomb them for fun sometimes.
And then Ukraine happened, twice! It was bad enough with the little green men and a semi-peaceable conquest of a territory with a fair sized percentage of the population who were happy to become Russian citizens.
But Putin's invasion of Ukraine with actual military and no deniability no matter how preposterously unplausible?
It told the world that Ukraine made a huge mistake in surrendering all of its atomic stockpile. No nukes means your nation is in the victim category rather than the serious category.
Every nation that doesn't have atomic weapons is scrambling for them and because of the way geopolitics has gone they are entirely correct in doing so. It would be foolhardy, a dereliction of the duty of the national leaders, if they did not do everything in their power to get nukes. The nuclear club will only grow from now on, no nation will ever surrender all their stockpile agian.
posted by sotonohito at 7:02 PM on November 10 [11 favorites]
Then please elaborate what you think Black voters are saying about the election that has nothing to do with reality.
I'm not saying anything about what Black voters are saying. So far as I know, their isn't a spokesperson for Black voters. If anyone is saying that voters not showing up in safe states cost Harris the election, they are wrong, because Harris lost all seven swing states. People coming out in California or Tennessee aren't going to change that. The uncommitted movement, while not endorsing Harris, advised voting strategically to defeat Trump. Harris managed to lose by numbers that dwarf the number of people that make up the anti-genocide movement.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:06 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
I'm not saying anything about what Black voters are saying. So far as I know, their isn't a spokesperson for Black voters. If anyone is saying that voters not showing up in safe states cost Harris the election, they are wrong, because Harris lost all seven swing states. People coming out in California or Tennessee aren't going to change that. The uncommitted movement, while not endorsing Harris, advised voting strategically to defeat Trump. Harris managed to lose by numbers that dwarf the number of people that make up the anti-genocide movement.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:06 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
Brian B. Harris lost because people felt bad about the economy.
And I seriously doubt anyone would have been swayed by ads warning of Trumpian Fascism and dictatorship. In fact, and with the benefit of hindsight, I suspect such ads would have hurt her. The simple fact is that the American voters have a memory of a few minutes at best and an attention span of two or three seconds.
Since Trump wasn't a dictator in his first term then they conclude that he won't be now and any fretting about the security of Democracy is just hyperbole and unsportsmanlike.
And Harris did basically run on a campaign of Trump being awful, it didn't sell. Even among illegal immigrants, a group he has personally said are poison and a disease, people he says he intends to deport by the millions, say that they know he only means the BAD illegal immigrants and not them.
I'm not sure why, but it's obvious that most Americans simply do not see any credible threat to democracy from Trump. It's bizarre, frightening, and deeply disturbing, but it's true. You and me and others like us who believe Trump is a threat are in the minority.
posted by sotonohito at 7:08 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]
And I seriously doubt anyone would have been swayed by ads warning of Trumpian Fascism and dictatorship. In fact, and with the benefit of hindsight, I suspect such ads would have hurt her. The simple fact is that the American voters have a memory of a few minutes at best and an attention span of two or three seconds.
Since Trump wasn't a dictator in his first term then they conclude that he won't be now and any fretting about the security of Democracy is just hyperbole and unsportsmanlike.
And Harris did basically run on a campaign of Trump being awful, it didn't sell. Even among illegal immigrants, a group he has personally said are poison and a disease, people he says he intends to deport by the millions, say that they know he only means the BAD illegal immigrants and not them.
I'm not sure why, but it's obvious that most Americans simply do not see any credible threat to democracy from Trump. It's bizarre, frightening, and deeply disturbing, but it's true. You and me and others like us who believe Trump is a threat are in the minority.
posted by sotonohito at 7:08 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]
What even the fuck? Apparently someone is running a wide scale text campaign telling black people to report to the plantation, personally addressed and everything.
I am not surprised that such things are happening, gloaters gonna gloat and racist gloaters gonna gloat all kinds of racist, but I am surprised that it is both widespread and personalized. That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
To me, it looks like the doing of a foreign government that sees the turmoil around the election result as a good time to start (or continue?) sowing seeds of discontent in the population. I don't think it's hard to figure out one or two countries where this attitude would be just 'different day, same shit'.
But, you know, multiple bad things can be true at once. And if ever a party was going to rig an election they stood a lamentably good chance of winning anyhow, it's today's Trumpist GOP.
It has occurred to me that it would be a useful tactic to scream as loud as possible about election fraud to stop people even thinking that the party screaming about it might be guilty of exactly that thing at the next election, knowing the other side of politics would never dare even to suggest it.
posted by dg at 7:13 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
I am not surprised that such things are happening, gloaters gonna gloat and racist gloaters gonna gloat all kinds of racist, but I am surprised that it is both widespread and personalized. That indicates to me that there's some level of funding involved to buy access to databases and pay Twilio or whoever to transport the messages.
To me, it looks like the doing of a foreign government that sees the turmoil around the election result as a good time to start (or continue?) sowing seeds of discontent in the population. I don't think it's hard to figure out one or two countries where this attitude would be just 'different day, same shit'.
But, you know, multiple bad things can be true at once. And if ever a party was going to rig an election they stood a lamentably good chance of winning anyhow, it's today's Trumpist GOP.
It has occurred to me that it would be a useful tactic to scream as loud as possible about election fraud to stop people even thinking that the party screaming about it might be guilty of exactly that thing at the next election, knowing the other side of politics would never dare even to suggest it.
posted by dg at 7:13 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
I actually do understand why people feel that way: democracy is the air we breathe. Everyone assumes it just happens automatically, because as far as many people are concerned it always has.
What really disturbs me is how many people like the guy as a person. He's repellent!
posted by BungaDunga at 7:15 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]
What really disturbs me is how many people like the guy as a person. He's repellent!
posted by BungaDunga at 7:15 PM on November 10 [7 favorites]
Brian B. Harris lost because people felt bad about the economy.
That idea was their excuse for lack of feeling anything. You could ask them what they felt about global warming and they would have offered an excuse from Fox News, such as no proof or whatever. Their emotional concern about it is non-existent so far (for that demographic).
posted by Brian B. at 7:16 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]
That idea was their excuse for lack of feeling anything. You could ask them what they felt about global warming and they would have offered an excuse from Fox News, such as no proof or whatever. Their emotional concern about it is non-existent so far (for that demographic).
posted by Brian B. at 7:16 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]
I'm not saying anything about what Black voters are saying. So far as I know, their isn't a spokesperson for Black voters.
Don't have to be a spokesperson to listen to Black voters. You actually should listen, if you want Democrats to win. If not, then keep on keeping on.
The uncommitted movement, while not endorsing Harris, advised voting strategically to defeat Trump. Harris managed to lose by numbers that dwarf the number of people that make up the anti-genocide movement.
This required a layer of nuance that we ask for ourselves apparently but never for Republicans. You can't say for 8 months you're not gonna vote for the nominee and then for four months say you should, or vote strategically, and think people are going to listen to you.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:17 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Don't have to be a spokesperson to listen to Black voters. You actually should listen, if you want Democrats to win. If not, then keep on keeping on.
The uncommitted movement, while not endorsing Harris, advised voting strategically to defeat Trump. Harris managed to lose by numbers that dwarf the number of people that make up the anti-genocide movement.
This required a layer of nuance that we ask for ourselves apparently but never for Republicans. You can't say for 8 months you're not gonna vote for the nominee and then for four months say you should, or vote strategically, and think people are going to listen to you.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:17 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
Don't have to be a spokesperson to listen to Black voters. You actually should listen, if you want Democrats to win. If not, then keep on keeping on.
I don't know who you think I am, but I have zero power to influence whether Democrats win. I am dirt poor, and I'm not even a Democrat. If there were literally any other way to keep Republicans out of office I would never think about the Democratic party again. I have zero interest in listening to what people on Twitter think happened in the election.
You can't say for 8 months you're not gonna vote for the nominee and then for four months say you should, or vote strategically, and think people are going to listen to you.
I wonder if there is anything Harris could have done to win their support, if it is in fact so vital the election turned on it.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 PM on November 10 [8 favorites]
I don't know who you think I am, but I have zero power to influence whether Democrats win. I am dirt poor, and I'm not even a Democrat. If there were literally any other way to keep Republicans out of office I would never think about the Democratic party again. I have zero interest in listening to what people on Twitter think happened in the election.
You can't say for 8 months you're not gonna vote for the nominee and then for four months say you should, or vote strategically, and think people are going to listen to you.
I wonder if there is anything Harris could have done to win their support, if it is in fact so vital the election turned on it.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:21 PM on November 10 [8 favorites]
I have zero interest in listening to what people on Twitter think happened in the election.
I suppose we hope the internet stays on the internet but there's some evidence it doesn't. This mindset seems not very useful if you ask me.
I wonder if there is anything Harris could have done to win their support, if it is in fact so vital the election turned on it.
I want to make it clear I don't think that this singular issue cost her the election but I do think it contributed to the fact the she has possibly 20 million votes less than Biden did. I mean maybe some people don't care because the results were the same....
But you can't tell me you hear a lot of right wing voters talking about how they're not gonna vote because they're in a red state, or they don't wanna be threatened with the Supreme Court, or they need to be convinced to vote.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:34 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
I suppose we hope the internet stays on the internet but there's some evidence it doesn't. This mindset seems not very useful if you ask me.
I wonder if there is anything Harris could have done to win their support, if it is in fact so vital the election turned on it.
I want to make it clear I don't think that this singular issue cost her the election but I do think it contributed to the fact the she has possibly 20 million votes less than Biden did. I mean maybe some people don't care because the results were the same....
But you can't tell me you hear a lot of right wing voters talking about how they're not gonna vote because they're in a red state, or they don't wanna be threatened with the Supreme Court, or they need to be convinced to vote.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:34 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
I suppose we hope the internet stays on the internet but there's some evidence it doesn't. This mindset seems not very useful if you ask me.
I am sure it doesn't stay on the internet, but there is simply nothing for me to do about it. There are still people who show up to repeat claims that Sanders supporters cost Clinton the 2016 election, even though Sanders voters were more likely to show up for Clinton than Clinton primary voters were to show up for Obama in 2008. Those narratives aren't something anyone can do much about unless they own a social media platform or a news network.
Factually, I don't see a lot of evidence for some big progressive or leftist balking. Both looking at what has come out since the election and talking to people in those spaces, I am willing to believe it if evidence shows up. It would actually be useful if we could point to this election as what happens when the Democrats flout human rights. But I don't think that is what happened.
I want to make it clear I don't think that this singular issue cost her the election but I do think it contributed to the fact the she has possibly 20 million votes less than Biden did.
I looks like the number is closer to five million than 20 at this point. Frankly I think a lot of it is misogyny, racism, and the special hate that black women specifically get.
Beyond that, in 2020 the world felt like it was ending. We had the media pointing out all of the US's evils and laying them at Trump's door and he was massively failing to handle Covid and had lots of programs to make voting by mail easier. Even so, we barely beat Trump. Combine the enthusiasm for fascism of a lot of the US, the terrible economy for most people, and the last four years of carefully nursed grievance on the part of Trump voters and I don't think a perfect campaign could have beaten Trump this year.
But you can't tell me you hear a lot of right wing voters talking about how they're not gonna vote because they're in a red state, or they don't wanna be threatened with the Supreme Court, or they need to be convinced to vote.
No, the ones who don't plan on voting mostly don't bother to justify it. I know a ton of people with right wing opinions who just don't bother to vote and they have never tried to tell me any reason for it other than that they just don't.
But you are right that there is an enthusiasm gap. That's a built in advantage that reactionary, paranoid movements have. People who love authoritarianism are easy to get to fall in line.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:02 PM on November 10 [8 favorites]
I am sure it doesn't stay on the internet, but there is simply nothing for me to do about it. There are still people who show up to repeat claims that Sanders supporters cost Clinton the 2016 election, even though Sanders voters were more likely to show up for Clinton than Clinton primary voters were to show up for Obama in 2008. Those narratives aren't something anyone can do much about unless they own a social media platform or a news network.
Factually, I don't see a lot of evidence for some big progressive or leftist balking. Both looking at what has come out since the election and talking to people in those spaces, I am willing to believe it if evidence shows up. It would actually be useful if we could point to this election as what happens when the Democrats flout human rights. But I don't think that is what happened.
I want to make it clear I don't think that this singular issue cost her the election but I do think it contributed to the fact the she has possibly 20 million votes less than Biden did.
I looks like the number is closer to five million than 20 at this point. Frankly I think a lot of it is misogyny, racism, and the special hate that black women specifically get.
Beyond that, in 2020 the world felt like it was ending. We had the media pointing out all of the US's evils and laying them at Trump's door and he was massively failing to handle Covid and had lots of programs to make voting by mail easier. Even so, we barely beat Trump. Combine the enthusiasm for fascism of a lot of the US, the terrible economy for most people, and the last four years of carefully nursed grievance on the part of Trump voters and I don't think a perfect campaign could have beaten Trump this year.
But you can't tell me you hear a lot of right wing voters talking about how they're not gonna vote because they're in a red state, or they don't wanna be threatened with the Supreme Court, or they need to be convinced to vote.
No, the ones who don't plan on voting mostly don't bother to justify it. I know a ton of people with right wing opinions who just don't bother to vote and they have never tried to tell me any reason for it other than that they just don't.
But you are right that there is an enthusiasm gap. That's a built in advantage that reactionary, paranoid movements have. People who love authoritarianism are easy to get to fall in line.
posted by pattern juggler at 8:02 PM on November 10 [8 favorites]
Beyond that, in 2020 the world felt like it was ending. We had the media pointing out all of the US's evils and laying them at Trump's door and he was massively failing to handle Covid and had lots of programs to make voting by mail easier.
Yeah, and I don't know how the numbers will work out, but in addition to all your points we can add that in 2020, at the height of the Pandemic, voting simply had a lot less to compete with for people's time -- especially people who were taking the virus seriously, a category more likely to be Harris voters now, if they voted. (And I wouldn't be surprised if this were especially true for young adult voters.)
posted by nobody at 8:25 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
Yeah, and I don't know how the numbers will work out, but in addition to all your points we can add that in 2020, at the height of the Pandemic, voting simply had a lot less to compete with for people's time -- especially people who were taking the virus seriously, a category more likely to be Harris voters now, if they voted. (And I wouldn't be surprised if this were especially true for young adult voters.)
posted by nobody at 8:25 PM on November 10 [5 favorites]
(Wait, I may have lost track of the larger question girlmightlive and pattern juggler are disagreeing about. I'm not trying to step into that argument; I just wanted to chime in with an observation I hadn't seen mentioned anywhere yet.)
posted by nobody at 8:30 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
posted by nobody at 8:30 PM on November 10 [1 favorite]
When Trump tells people what they want to hear he’s telling it like it is. When Dems do it they’re pandering.
posted by girlmightlive
The thing that I most struggle with in politics is how to remedy the problem of double standards for different political parties. Somebody has to be the adult in the room, yet they are the ones who get punished the hardest for failing to deliver on that impossible demand. Voters know that the right are spoilers, thieves, and thugs, always prepared to dive deeper into the cesspit, and that is why some of the voters permanently support that side of politics, in the delusion that they will always be among the winners.
So the bar for the right, now beyond all dispute, is not only low, it is for all practical purposes non-existent. Yet it remains as high, if not higher, for anybody to the left of them.
We have the same problem here in Australia. We are very much on track to throw out a first term centre-left government (Labor) early next year mainly because they have not fixed everything* in 3 years that the previous 9 years of increasingly hard right clusterfuck government left behind. (Which numbers gave the right approx. 20 of the last 28 years in power, and in two long consolidating blocks, 11 & 9 years, so they should be shouldering the bulk of the blame, yet....)
(*In particular, the now very real, serious, and worsening housing crisis. But there are plenty of others, mostly caused by ever shrinking budgets due to endless tax cuts and handing ever more of the national wealth to the already over-engorged ultra-rich, and good luck to any party trying to fix that trend.)
So voters here apparently think the solution to our troubles is an even more hard right government and leader. Because fucking reasons.
This increasingly extreme asymmetry in allocating blame and responsibility in politics is the one thing I have no idea how to fix. The propaganda has worked.
–––––
>The uncommitted movement, while not endorsing Harris, advised voting strategically to defeat Trump. Harris managed to lose by numbers that dwarf the number of people that make up the anti-genocide movement.
This required a layer of nuance that we ask for ourselves apparently but never for Republicans. You can't say for 8 months you're not gonna vote for the nominee and then for four months say you should, or vote strategically, and think people are going to listen to you.
posted by girlmightlive
Not just not vote for them, but relentlessly demonise the nominee and their party across a wide range of issues, all the way to being aficionados of genocide.
Turning around at the last minute and saying but still vote for them anyway, is way too little, way too late. That kind of profoundly toxic atmosphere takes time to dissipate.
–––––
Every nation that doesn't have atomic weapons is scrambling for them and because of the way geopolitics has gone they are entirely correct in doing so. It would be foolhardy, a dereliction of the duty of the national leaders, if they did not do everything in their power to get nukes. The nuclear club will only grow from now on, no nation will ever surrender all their stockpile agian.
posted by sotonohito
Yep. That horse has now bolted and disappeared over the horizon. The only thing that can now even slow it down, let alone stop it, is pre-emptive strikes against nuclear weapons production facilities before they can deliver the finished product.
And that is coming from somebody who has been a hardcore lifelong opponent of nuclear weapons. And still is, because there is no way it can end well. But that is not the world we live in anymore.
posted by Pouteria at 9:22 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive
The thing that I most struggle with in politics is how to remedy the problem of double standards for different political parties. Somebody has to be the adult in the room, yet they are the ones who get punished the hardest for failing to deliver on that impossible demand. Voters know that the right are spoilers, thieves, and thugs, always prepared to dive deeper into the cesspit, and that is why some of the voters permanently support that side of politics, in the delusion that they will always be among the winners.
So the bar for the right, now beyond all dispute, is not only low, it is for all practical purposes non-existent. Yet it remains as high, if not higher, for anybody to the left of them.
We have the same problem here in Australia. We are very much on track to throw out a first term centre-left government (Labor) early next year mainly because they have not fixed everything* in 3 years that the previous 9 years of increasingly hard right clusterfuck government left behind. (Which numbers gave the right approx. 20 of the last 28 years in power, and in two long consolidating blocks, 11 & 9 years, so they should be shouldering the bulk of the blame, yet....)
(*In particular, the now very real, serious, and worsening housing crisis. But there are plenty of others, mostly caused by ever shrinking budgets due to endless tax cuts and handing ever more of the national wealth to the already over-engorged ultra-rich, and good luck to any party trying to fix that trend.)
So voters here apparently think the solution to our troubles is an even more hard right government and leader. Because fucking reasons.
This increasingly extreme asymmetry in allocating blame and responsibility in politics is the one thing I have no idea how to fix. The propaganda has worked.
–––––
>The uncommitted movement, while not endorsing Harris, advised voting strategically to defeat Trump. Harris managed to lose by numbers that dwarf the number of people that make up the anti-genocide movement.
This required a layer of nuance that we ask for ourselves apparently but never for Republicans. You can't say for 8 months you're not gonna vote for the nominee and then for four months say you should, or vote strategically, and think people are going to listen to you.
posted by girlmightlive
Not just not vote for them, but relentlessly demonise the nominee and their party across a wide range of issues, all the way to being aficionados of genocide.
Turning around at the last minute and saying but still vote for them anyway, is way too little, way too late. That kind of profoundly toxic atmosphere takes time to dissipate.
–––––
Every nation that doesn't have atomic weapons is scrambling for them and because of the way geopolitics has gone they are entirely correct in doing so. It would be foolhardy, a dereliction of the duty of the national leaders, if they did not do everything in their power to get nukes. The nuclear club will only grow from now on, no nation will ever surrender all their stockpile agian.
posted by sotonohito
Yep. That horse has now bolted and disappeared over the horizon. The only thing that can now even slow it down, let alone stop it, is pre-emptive strikes against nuclear weapons production facilities before they can deliver the finished product.
And that is coming from somebody who has been a hardcore lifelong opponent of nuclear weapons. And still is, because there is no way it can end well. But that is not the world we live in anymore.
posted by Pouteria at 9:22 PM on November 10 [2 favorites]
Not just not vote for them, but relentlessly demonise the nominee and their party across a wide range of issues, all the way to being aficionados of genocide.
Demonization implies it isn't true. The Uncommitted movement gave Harris numerous opportunities to do the decent thing. The campaign didn't even let a Palestinian American speak at the DNC. Even so, the Uncommitted delegates still asked people to vote against Trump. That was more gracious than they had to be.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:27 PM on November 10 [8 favorites]
Demonization implies it isn't true. The Uncommitted movement gave Harris numerous opportunities to do the decent thing. The campaign didn't even let a Palestinian American speak at the DNC. Even so, the Uncommitted delegates still asked people to vote against Trump. That was more gracious than they had to be.
posted by pattern juggler at 9:27 PM on November 10 [8 favorites]
There seem to be a lot of hurt fee-fees about being called out for the end result of not voting or lodging a protest vote.
At the end of the day, these actions supported Trump as much as what votes were cast by Trump supporters, and at the end of the day, the end result of a Trump presidency will be the same.
Republicans really don't care much if you voted for Jill Stein or RFK Jr or whatever other Russian stooge, or if you stayed at home — they now have absolute power as a result, and they will get to exercise it over everyone.
There's no going back now. The genocide of Gazans will accelerate. Ukraine will likely suffer even more devastation at the hands of Russians. NATO countries are being threatened by Elon Musk, if they dare to apply their laws to Twitter, and Russia is just waiting in the wings on that. Taiwan will fall to China. Their populations will suffer devastation and murder.
Here in the United States, more trans kids will be murdered. Migrants and immigrants will be put into camps and possibly murdered and disappeared, given the scale of what's being proposed. Defense of abortion and the rights of gays not to be murdered will be relegated to fewer and fewer states, per Supreme Court warnings circa 2022. Possibly eliminated altogether as the theocracy spreads.
Out of politeness, I would say sorry if the electoral day actions described above apply to you, but if they did, you need to know that you helped usher in this presidency and all the consequences that will follow, even if you didn't specifically vote for Trump. Hurt feelings at being called out are going to be inconsequential to the real, actual physical hurt and death that will be inflicted on many many millions of innocent people by your actions.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:08 PM on November 10 [12 favorites]
At the end of the day, these actions supported Trump as much as what votes were cast by Trump supporters, and at the end of the day, the end result of a Trump presidency will be the same.
Republicans really don't care much if you voted for Jill Stein or RFK Jr or whatever other Russian stooge, or if you stayed at home — they now have absolute power as a result, and they will get to exercise it over everyone.
There's no going back now. The genocide of Gazans will accelerate. Ukraine will likely suffer even more devastation at the hands of Russians. NATO countries are being threatened by Elon Musk, if they dare to apply their laws to Twitter, and Russia is just waiting in the wings on that. Taiwan will fall to China. Their populations will suffer devastation and murder.
Here in the United States, more trans kids will be murdered. Migrants and immigrants will be put into camps and possibly murdered and disappeared, given the scale of what's being proposed. Defense of abortion and the rights of gays not to be murdered will be relegated to fewer and fewer states, per Supreme Court warnings circa 2022. Possibly eliminated altogether as the theocracy spreads.
Out of politeness, I would say sorry if the electoral day actions described above apply to you, but if they did, you need to know that you helped usher in this presidency and all the consequences that will follow, even if you didn't specifically vote for Trump. Hurt feelings at being called out are going to be inconsequential to the real, actual physical hurt and death that will be inflicted on many many millions of innocent people by your actions.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:08 PM on November 10 [12 favorites]
relentlessly demonise the nominee and their party across a wide range of issues, all the way to being aficionados of genocide.
The nominee and her party were complicit in arming a genocide. That’s not demonization, that’s just the fucking truth. US weapons are being handed by a Democratic administration to a state actively engaging in genocide. To argue this is demonization is akin to arguing we can’t call people collaborators just because they were high up in the Vichy administration.
posted by corb at 12:37 AM on November 11 [17 favorites]
The nominee and her party were complicit in arming a genocide. That’s not demonization, that’s just the fucking truth. US weapons are being handed by a Democratic administration to a state actively engaging in genocide. To argue this is demonization is akin to arguing we can’t call people collaborators just because they were high up in the Vichy administration.
posted by corb at 12:37 AM on November 11 [17 favorites]
I don't think we have any good reason to believe that 100% turnout wouldn't still have delivered the presidency to Trump.
The reason I have for believing that, which I think is a pretty good reason, is based on the premise that voter turnout reflects the degree to which people really care about the election outcome.
As TFG keeps pointing out ad nauseam: record numbers of Americans voted for him in 2020. He always mentions this in passing on his way to making utterly spurious claims about a stolen election, but that the election was not stolen does not alter the fact that his voter numbers in 2020 really were record-breaking.
And his base has just spent four years feeling even more aggrieved than they were in 2016 about all the shit that's wrong with their country, as they see it. Some of that shit is real, like smarmy neoliberal technocrats running economic policy as if economic inequality and extreme concentration of wealth were inconsequential, and some of it is completely made up and spoonfed them via right-wing media, but the point is that they're deeply pissed off about all of it and have been for the last four years. Which is why his raw voter numbers have stayed at about the size that they were in 2020. Regardless of how incoherent what they want might be, they didn't get it then, they still want it now, and they want it every bit as badly.
The last time the Democratic base was that pissed off was in 2020, after four unspeakably appalling years with TFG in charge. Which is why, in 2020, Democrats also turned out in record numbers. That turnout reflected a widespread and burning desire to DTMFA.
This year? Not so much. This year, TFG is no longer the raw and burning national UTI that got cleared up in 2020. This year, Democrats have also spent four years pissed off about the consequences of neoliberal failure to deal with inequality in any serious fashion. And this year, we've also seen a Democratic Administration come out comprehensively on the wrong side of history with its full-throated support for genocide and heavy-handed responses to widespread student protests. So this year, the extraordinary passion to get the Democrat elected is just not there, and Democratic turnout is correspondingly much closer to historical norms.
posted by flabdablet at 12:46 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
The reason I have for believing that, which I think is a pretty good reason, is based on the premise that voter turnout reflects the degree to which people really care about the election outcome.
As TFG keeps pointing out ad nauseam: record numbers of Americans voted for him in 2020. He always mentions this in passing on his way to making utterly spurious claims about a stolen election, but that the election was not stolen does not alter the fact that his voter numbers in 2020 really were record-breaking.
And his base has just spent four years feeling even more aggrieved than they were in 2016 about all the shit that's wrong with their country, as they see it. Some of that shit is real, like smarmy neoliberal technocrats running economic policy as if economic inequality and extreme concentration of wealth were inconsequential, and some of it is completely made up and spoonfed them via right-wing media, but the point is that they're deeply pissed off about all of it and have been for the last four years. Which is why his raw voter numbers have stayed at about the size that they were in 2020. Regardless of how incoherent what they want might be, they didn't get it then, they still want it now, and they want it every bit as badly.
The last time the Democratic base was that pissed off was in 2020, after four unspeakably appalling years with TFG in charge. Which is why, in 2020, Democrats also turned out in record numbers. That turnout reflected a widespread and burning desire to DTMFA.
This year? Not so much. This year, TFG is no longer the raw and burning national UTI that got cleared up in 2020. This year, Democrats have also spent four years pissed off about the consequences of neoliberal failure to deal with inequality in any serious fashion. And this year, we've also seen a Democratic Administration come out comprehensively on the wrong side of history with its full-throated support for genocide and heavy-handed responses to widespread student protests. So this year, the extraordinary passion to get the Democrat elected is just not there, and Democratic turnout is correspondingly much closer to historical norms.
posted by flabdablet at 12:46 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
It's not too much of a stretch to view the 2020 and 2024 election results as delivering the same lesson learned so lucratively by the designers of social media feed algorithms: the single most potent force that drives engagement is anger. It works even better than fear.
posted by flabdablet at 12:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 12:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I wonder if there is anything Harris could have done to win their support, if it is in fact so vital the election turned on it.
The election didn't turn on it and there is nothing she could have done. There is a hard core of that kind of movement that is impossible to satisfy and that hard core was going to keep yelling about it, making it really hard for anyone else in the movement to vote for her.
If she'd announced that she was going to cut off weapons unless Netanyahu backed out, that would not have been enough. The most obvious yelling is that it would have been too little too late. The secondary yelling would be that she's just saying that for votes and you can't trust her. The third yelling would have been that true support for Gaza means big reparations from Israel. That true support means capturing Netanyahu and his cabinet for international justice. (this is the point where people in the movement talk about how correct those positions would have been)
She could have flown to Israel, personally killed Netanyahu, brought his head back in a bucket to display in the oval office, and there would still have been endless chattering about how that wasn't enough.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:09 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
The election didn't turn on it and there is nothing she could have done. There is a hard core of that kind of movement that is impossible to satisfy and that hard core was going to keep yelling about it, making it really hard for anyone else in the movement to vote for her.
If she'd announced that she was going to cut off weapons unless Netanyahu backed out, that would not have been enough. The most obvious yelling is that it would have been too little too late. The secondary yelling would be that she's just saying that for votes and you can't trust her. The third yelling would have been that true support for Gaza means big reparations from Israel. That true support means capturing Netanyahu and his cabinet for international justice. (this is the point where people in the movement talk about how correct those positions would have been)
She could have flown to Israel, personally killed Netanyahu, brought his head back in a bucket to display in the oval office, and there would still have been endless chattering about how that wasn't enough.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:09 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
lol people really just be saying anything
posted by ftrtts at 3:12 AM on November 11 [12 favorites]
posted by ftrtts at 3:12 AM on November 11 [12 favorites]
There is a hard core of that kind of movement that is impossible to satisfy
and then there is the overwhelming majority of it, for which simple compliance with international and domestic law would have been plenty.
posted by flabdablet at 4:27 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
and then there is the overwhelming majority of it, for which simple compliance with international and domestic law would have been plenty.
posted by flabdablet at 4:27 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
In the annals of implacable hard liners, surely those of the 'do everything humanly possible to end a genocide' should be the last ones we complain about?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:50 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:50 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
How about, there is a hard core of people who will always criticize the left, no matter what, no matter how irrelevant they may be, no matter how many people the liberal government is responsible for killing, no matter how dissasitisfied the electorate is with the current liberal government, there will always be people jumping to criticize the far left.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:53 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:53 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]
Gabriel Winant, in Dissent (it's really good, you should read the whole thing): Although on the surface MAGA is nostalgic, Trump’s movement has been immensely historically generative: creating new modes of political expression, opening new arenas of policymaking: mass deportation, anti-trans assaults, vaccine skepticism. This is why it is so destructive. On the contrary, it is the Democratic leadership that is engaged in a backward-looking project. Only through restorationism can the party balance its competing commitments to social and economic justice and capitalist growth. It seeks to recapture a lost past in which these goals accommodated each other, and it suppresses any positive vision of the future that might require deciding internal tensions. Just consider the way that Biden and Harris both have championed reforms that everyone knows cannot be accomplished without abolition of the filibuster and reform of the federal court system, which they are both hesitant to contemplate, occasionally entertaining narrowly tailored, self-limited reforms. Such an effort, if undertaken more generally, would necessitate a wider critique of American society and the undemocratic institutions that define it—a critique at odds with an image of an America that is “already great.” Despite their various discrete policy goals, Democrats thus prove unable to tell a clear story about what those goals mean, how they fit together, and how we might get there; they can only insist that they are not Trump—and even this is no longer quite true.
posted by mittens at 5:00 AM on November 11 [10 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:00 AM on November 11 [10 favorites]
There seem to be a lot of hurt fee-fees about being called out for the end result of not voting or lodging a protest vote.
No, there is irritation at watching people try to construct yet another stab in the back myth just like in 2016.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:19 AM on November 11 [14 favorites]
No, there is irritation at watching people try to construct yet another stab in the back myth just like in 2016.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:19 AM on November 11 [14 favorites]
The election didn't turn on it and there is nothing she could have done. There is a hard core of that kind of movement that is impossible to satisfy and that hard core was going to keep yelling about it, making it really hard for anyone else in the movement to vote for her.
It wasn't hard at all to vote for her and literally any positive, concrete action towards not actively aiding in genocide would have been enough to win the support of the Uncommitted movement. She just never bothered.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:23 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
It wasn't hard at all to vote for her and literally any positive, concrete action towards not actively aiding in genocide would have been enough to win the support of the Uncommitted movement. She just never bothered.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:23 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
You also said people weren’t protest voting, so they actually were?
posted by girlmightlive at 5:37 AM on November 11
posted by girlmightlive at 5:37 AM on November 11
There were protest votes, on both sides, from all angles, and it has no effect on the outcome.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:44 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:44 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
No, I am saying that she could have gotten the endorsement of the Uncommitted movement, rather than just having people hold their noses and vote for her despite her unwillingness to do the right thing.
It wouldn't have helped because the vast majority of anti-genocide activists voted for her anyway, but if we are going to relitigate why she didn't get their endorsement, saying it was because she never could have gotten it is just baseless. We'll never know exactly how they'd have tesponded to any concrete action, because the campaign was clear they were going to stand by Israel through the genocide.
In a way I am glad. She'd still have lost if she'd budged, and the Democrats would have taken the lesson that victory means being as bloodthirsty and racist as possible.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:47 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
It wouldn't have helped because the vast majority of anti-genocide activists voted for her anyway, but if we are going to relitigate why she didn't get their endorsement, saying it was because she never could have gotten it is just baseless. We'll never know exactly how they'd have tesponded to any concrete action, because the campaign was clear they were going to stand by Israel through the genocide.
In a way I am glad. She'd still have lost if she'd budged, and the Democrats would have taken the lesson that victory means being as bloodthirsty and racist as possible.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:47 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
If she had bothered, I would have expected to see her get much the same kind of wave of popular enthusiasm, from much the same people, that Obama got for promising to shut down Guantanamo. That sense of relief - OMG, finally, a Democrat who is actually going to do something - was palpable at the time.
That said, Obama was elected off the back of what was at the time the most embarrassing Republican administration ever, much as Biden was in 2020. And W, in his turn, was a reaction against two terms of Clinton-era neoliberal technocrats also completely ignoring asset maldistribution in favour of heavily aggregated indicators like like GDP growth and budget surpluses that are completely meaningless to most citizens.
History doesn't repeat itself, but its rhyme scheme is really not all that complicated.
You also said people weren’t protest voting, so they actually were?
It's not so much the protest vote as the apathetic non vote. The further the Democratic Party has bent toward appealing to the mythical potential Republican swing voter, the less passion it's generated on its leftward flank, the less difference the majority of Americans who don't pay much attention perceive between it and the Republicans ("no matter who you vote for, a politician always gets in") and the less motivated its potential support base has become to get off its arse and actually support it.
posted by flabdablet at 5:47 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
That said, Obama was elected off the back of what was at the time the most embarrassing Republican administration ever, much as Biden was in 2020. And W, in his turn, was a reaction against two terms of Clinton-era neoliberal technocrats also completely ignoring asset maldistribution in favour of heavily aggregated indicators like like GDP growth and budget surpluses that are completely meaningless to most citizens.
History doesn't repeat itself, but its rhyme scheme is really not all that complicated.
You also said people weren’t protest voting, so they actually were?
It's not so much the protest vote as the apathetic non vote. The further the Democratic Party has bent toward appealing to the mythical potential Republican swing voter, the less passion it's generated on its leftward flank, the less difference the majority of Americans who don't pay much attention perceive between it and the Republicans ("no matter who you vote for, a politician always gets in") and the less motivated its potential support base has become to get off its arse and actually support it.
posted by flabdablet at 5:47 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
Democrats would have taken the lesson that victory means being as bloodthirsty and racist as possible
You seriously think they haven't?
posted by flabdablet at 6:03 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
You seriously think they haven't?
posted by flabdablet at 6:03 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
fifilamoura@eldritch.cafe on Mastodon:
During the AIDS crisis most of what we were doing was tending and befriending. People on the outside saw the activism and there was lots of organizing among ourselves and with allies but the tend and befriend network of queer and straight people was the foundational layer. This isn't like organizing a corporate event or advertising campaign, you need to focus on care for those who need it first. There'll be plenty of work for the people who want to campaign too (as there was during the AIDS crisis) but any real movement comes out of taking emotional and physical care of each other.posted by audi alteram partem at 6:12 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
the less motivated its potential support base has become to get off its arse and actually support it.
Potential support base. And here’s the impasse.
While they were above described as “people on Twitter” I have asked several times for people to spend some time looking at the opinions of Democratic voters.
While indeed Trump made some advances among non-white voters, overwhelmingly most non-white voters rejected him.
What is the Democratic Party going to say to motivate white voters in a way that doesn’t alienate non-white voters?
A lot of people are saying she should’ve said more for Palestine but that didn’t stop lots of voters so why did it stop you? Feels like peopl are conveying a message that they “care too much” which is alienating to those who voted based on what they already knew, or hoped for.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:12 AM on November 11
Potential support base. And here’s the impasse.
While they were above described as “people on Twitter” I have asked several times for people to spend some time looking at the opinions of Democratic voters.
While indeed Trump made some advances among non-white voters, overwhelmingly most non-white voters rejected him.
What is the Democratic Party going to say to motivate white voters in a way that doesn’t alienate non-white voters?
A lot of people are saying she should’ve said more for Palestine but that didn’t stop lots of voters so why did it stop you? Feels like peopl are conveying a message that they “care too much” which is alienating to those who voted based on what they already knew, or hoped for.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:12 AM on November 11
I think most of the people here being critical of Harris either voted for her, live in a place where their vote doesn't matter, or in some cases, both.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:15 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 6:15 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
A left leaning person saying their vote doesn’t matter is part of the impasse.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:17 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:17 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
What impasse?
Most of this country's votes don't make a difference. My vote didn't.
I voted for Harris on the first day of early voting. I helped a couple of other people vote for her, too. But we live in Tennessee, and we might as well have written in Mickey Mouse for all the chance she had of winning the state. Pretending otherwise isn't useful.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:23 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
Most of this country's votes don't make a difference. My vote didn't.
I voted for Harris on the first day of early voting. I helped a couple of other people vote for her, too. But we live in Tennessee, and we might as well have written in Mickey Mouse for all the chance she had of winning the state. Pretending otherwise isn't useful.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:23 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
The impasse is between the Democratic voters who consistently vote and the voters who need to be talked into it.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:28 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:28 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
And personally a lot of resentment from black voters I haven’t seen before.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:30 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:30 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
An impasse implies there is some conflict over what to do. Democrats are angry at the left for not being as enthusiastic about voting for Democrats as they are. That isn't an impasse. That is just how things are in this country, and how they have been for a long while now.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:31 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 6:31 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
It wasn't hard at all to vote for her and literally any positive, concrete action towards not actively aiding in genocide would have been enough to win the support of the Uncommitted movement. She just never bothered.
That's an easy thing to say but I don't believe for an instant that the movement leaders would have reversed course and supported her after "any positive, concrete action." If she'd announced an intent to deny Israel arms, the genocide was going to continue and there were still going to be kids getting blown up on tiktok. The movement leaders are really supposed to say that now it's okay-ish enough to vote for her? They're not going to say that with a little more pressure we can get some kind of active intervention against it? I simply don't buy it.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:32 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
That's an easy thing to say but I don't believe for an instant that the movement leaders would have reversed course and supported her after "any positive, concrete action." If she'd announced an intent to deny Israel arms, the genocide was going to continue and there were still going to be kids getting blown up on tiktok. The movement leaders are really supposed to say that now it's okay-ish enough to vote for her? They're not going to say that with a little more pressure we can get some kind of active intervention against it? I simply don't buy it.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:32 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
why are you spending all this time on the notional leftist protest voter, rather than the very real and obvious apathetic voter who didn't show up? Hell, why assume that it's the leftist position that got the most protest (non)votes? LIke, you seem to be doing a "looking for my keys under the streetlamp" thing just because there are some leftists on Metafilter you disagree with. Guess what! They're not representative of the electorate, who are the ones who did most of the voting.
posted by sagc at 6:33 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]
posted by sagc at 6:33 AM on November 11 [11 favorites]
GCU Sweet and Full of Grace, that's some A+ fanfic about the Uncommitted movement.
posted by sagc at 6:34 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
posted by sagc at 6:34 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
why are you spending all this time on the notional leftist protest voter, rather than the very real and obvious apathetic voter who didn't show up?
I’d love to know why they didn’t show up either.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:36 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
I’d love to know why they didn’t show up either.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:36 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
That's an easy thing to say but I don't believe for an instant that the movement leaders would have reversed course and supported her after "any positive, concrete action."
Most of the Uncommitted movement members I talked to were desperate for something they could point to as a real change on the part of the Harris campaign. Because they were bluffing. They knew they had no other option. So did Harris. She called their bluff and they voted for her anyway. But most of the country wanted Trump, so the whole farce didn't even matter.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:36 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
Most of the Uncommitted movement members I talked to were desperate for something they could point to as a real change on the part of the Harris campaign. Because they were bluffing. They knew they had no other option. So did Harris. She called their bluff and they voted for her anyway. But most of the country wanted Trump, so the whole farce didn't even matter.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:36 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
This observation by Leah McElrath was enlightening:
The percentage of white voters who have supported Democratic presidential candidates over the past three decades:
Clinton 1992: 39%
Clinton 1996: 44%
Gore 2000: 42%
Kerry 2004: 41%
Obama 2008: 43%
Obama 2012: 39%
Clinton 2016: 39%
Biden 2020: 43%
Harris 2024: 41%
Is it a this-specific-candidate problem, or a "white voters tend not to vote for the party that looks out for minorities" problem?
posted by rory at 6:36 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
The percentage of white voters who have supported Democratic presidential candidates over the past three decades:
Clinton 1992: 39%
Clinton 1996: 44%
Gore 2000: 42%
Kerry 2004: 41%
Obama 2008: 43%
Obama 2012: 39%
Clinton 2016: 39%
Biden 2020: 43%
Harris 2024: 41%
Is it a this-specific-candidate problem, or a "white voters tend not to vote for the party that looks out for minorities" problem?
posted by rory at 6:36 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
I voted for her because I would have voted for a broken Teddy Ruxpin from 1983 in a tiny little sailor suit if it had a D after its name if it were running against Donald Trump. I am what you might call a high information voter. Most Americans aren't.
And we can be mad about that or not, but I don't see a way to actually change it. Not in any great hurry, at least. Not before 2028.
What that means is that the next sad democrat who ends up running for president, presuming there is ever another presidential election, will have to figure out what went wrong here and course correct for it. I desperately hope that she, he or they understand that they need to sell Americans on a message of doing great things for them personally, to include allowing them the money to afford rent, possibly because it's been diverted from war efforts that further genocide against the express wishes of most of the country; but like Bernie Sanders, I can only imagine this will not happen, because why hasn't it yet?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:37 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
And we can be mad about that or not, but I don't see a way to actually change it. Not in any great hurry, at least. Not before 2028.
What that means is that the next sad democrat who ends up running for president, presuming there is ever another presidential election, will have to figure out what went wrong here and course correct for it. I desperately hope that she, he or they understand that they need to sell Americans on a message of doing great things for them personally, to include allowing them the money to afford rent, possibly because it's been diverted from war efforts that further genocide against the express wishes of most of the country; but like Bernie Sanders, I can only imagine this will not happen, because why hasn't it yet?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:37 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
Is it a this-specific-candidate problem, or a "white voters tend not to vote for the party that looks out for minorities" problem?
This is the impasse I’m talking about.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:48 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
This is the impasse I’m talking about.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:48 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I don't think there is any real overlap between the people critical of Harris over Gaza, or going ahead with prosecutions based on tainted evidence and people who won't vote for Democrats because the Democrats aren't racist enough.
posted by pattern juggler at 6:51 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 6:51 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
This observation by Leah McElrath was enlightening:
The percentage of white voters who have supported Democratic presidential candidates over the past three decades:
Clinton 1992: 39%
Clinton 1996: 44%
Gore 2000: 42%
Kerry 2004: 41%
Obama 2008: 43%
Obama 2012: 39%
Clinton 2016: 39%
Biden 2020: 43%
Harris 2024: 41%
Is it a this-specific-candidate problem, or a "white voters tend not to vote for the party that looks out for minorities" problem?
White people. Please get your shit together.
Love, me, Toni Morrison and a bunch of other minorities.
posted by cashman at 6:52 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
I’d love to know why they didn’t show up either.
I refer you to my earlier remarks here and here, to the excellent Dissent article that mittens linked here, and to Gary's Economics.
posted by flabdablet at 6:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I refer you to my earlier remarks here and here, to the excellent Dissent article that mittens linked here, and to Gary's Economics.
posted by flabdablet at 6:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I don't think there is any real overlap between the people critical of Harris over Gaza, or going ahead with prosecutions based on tainted evidence and people who won't vote for Democrats because the Democrats aren't racist enough
It’s getting to the point these distinctions don’t matter when the result is the same.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:01 AM on November 11
It’s getting to the point these distinctions don’t matter when the result is the same.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:01 AM on November 11
What is the Democratic Party going to say to motivate white voters in a way that doesn’t alienate non-white voters?
I like the way you phrase this because it gets past one of the critique cycles we've seen in these threads, where it's "If Harris said X she would have won," and then someone points out that Harris did, in fact, say X.
It's a party problem, not a candidate problem. My own fantasy is that economic issues--and economic blame--would be motivating to a multiracial coalition of voters, in a way that a lot of other issues aren't. We needed everyone--every consultant, every op-ed writer, every spectral wraith exhumed from the 90s to speak on talk shows--to be on the same page on this: The American public is hurting, we're all scared of being laid off, we're all scared of losing our places to live. Medicine costs too much, the doctor costs too much--assuming you can even find a doctor. And groceries, holy Christ. It would have been fine to throw Biden under the bus on these issues. Trump too, but people are mad at whoever's in office now.
Anyway, like I say, that's my fantasy. I think they could have reached, and convinced, so many voters if they'd all been on the same page.
posted by mittens at 7:02 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
I like the way you phrase this because it gets past one of the critique cycles we've seen in these threads, where it's "If Harris said X she would have won," and then someone points out that Harris did, in fact, say X.
It's a party problem, not a candidate problem. My own fantasy is that economic issues--and economic blame--would be motivating to a multiracial coalition of voters, in a way that a lot of other issues aren't. We needed everyone--every consultant, every op-ed writer, every spectral wraith exhumed from the 90s to speak on talk shows--to be on the same page on this: The American public is hurting, we're all scared of being laid off, we're all scared of losing our places to live. Medicine costs too much, the doctor costs too much--assuming you can even find a doctor. And groceries, holy Christ. It would have been fine to throw Biden under the bus on these issues. Trump too, but people are mad at whoever's in office now.
Anyway, like I say, that's my fantasy. I think they could have reached, and convinced, so many voters if they'd all been on the same page.
posted by mittens at 7:02 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
It’s getting to the point these distinctions don’t matter when the result is the same.
This amounts to saying if you are critical of Democrats you are a racist and a fascist, even when you are critical of them for being racist and fascistic.
The very real distinction is that one group held their noses and voted for Harris, while the other group gleefully voted for Trump.
There is always a need to find some group to kick when the Democrats lose. But the actual people to blame, Republicans, Democratic strategists, etc. are inaccessible or can kick back. So we'll watch the hunt for an attainable target.
I suppose it is better if the fixation winds up being leftists, rather than Muslims or trans people. But it'll probably be all of us.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:11 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
This amounts to saying if you are critical of Democrats you are a racist and a fascist, even when you are critical of them for being racist and fascistic.
The very real distinction is that one group held their noses and voted for Harris, while the other group gleefully voted for Trump.
There is always a need to find some group to kick when the Democrats lose. But the actual people to blame, Republicans, Democratic strategists, etc. are inaccessible or can kick back. So we'll watch the hunt for an attainable target.
I suppose it is better if the fixation winds up being leftists, rather than Muslims or trans people. But it'll probably be all of us.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:11 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
But the actual people to blame, Republicans, Democratic strategists, etc.
Hell of a "etc" right there, considering that post about white people being unable to get a majority to support Democrats over the past 30+ years. You just skipped right on past that huh.
posted by cashman at 7:15 AM on November 11
Hell of a "etc" right there, considering that post about white people being unable to get a majority to support Democrats over the past 30+ years. You just skipped right on past that huh.
posted by cashman at 7:15 AM on November 11
Hell of a "etc" right there, considering that post about white people being unable to get a majority to support Democrats over the past 30+ years.
I would have counted white racists in with Republicans, but you do you.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:18 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
I would have counted white racists in with Republicans, but you do you.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:18 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
The dissent piece is very good:
"In our time, there are entrenched institutional liberal forces, not only in formal politics but in the universities, the press, the legal system, the nonprofit sector, and even the corporate world, that intone the threat Trumpism poses to democracy and the rule of law, yet work every day to defeat their own internal left-wing challengers: student protests, labor struggles, “woke excesses.” When they raid encampments (student or unhoused) or bust unions, they do Trump’s work for him, remaking Americans in authoritarian ways. The phenomenon that Trump represents can only be defeated when liberal institutionalists cease trying to quash the insurgent left in the name of protecting democracy, and instead look to it as an ally and a source of strength. This is not because the ideas of the left already represent a suppressed silent majority—a fantastical, self-flattering delusion—but because it is only the left that has a coherent vision to offer against the ideas of the right."
It also rightly points out that yes, despite all liberal handwrining, part of Biden's victory was due to the BLM protests.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:18 AM on November 11 [16 favorites]
"In our time, there are entrenched institutional liberal forces, not only in formal politics but in the universities, the press, the legal system, the nonprofit sector, and even the corporate world, that intone the threat Trumpism poses to democracy and the rule of law, yet work every day to defeat their own internal left-wing challengers: student protests, labor struggles, “woke excesses.” When they raid encampments (student or unhoused) or bust unions, they do Trump’s work for him, remaking Americans in authoritarian ways. The phenomenon that Trump represents can only be defeated when liberal institutionalists cease trying to quash the insurgent left in the name of protecting democracy, and instead look to it as an ally and a source of strength. This is not because the ideas of the left already represent a suppressed silent majority—a fantastical, self-flattering delusion—but because it is only the left that has a coherent vision to offer against the ideas of the right."
It also rightly points out that yes, despite all liberal handwrining, part of Biden's victory was due to the BLM protests.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:18 AM on November 11 [16 favorites]
This amounts to saying if you are critical of Democrats you are a racist and a fascist, even when you are critical of them for being racist and fascistic.
The reason Black people overwhelmingly vote for Democrats is not due to a love of the Democratic Party, it’s because the Republican Party is so much worse. It basically begins and ends there.
This is why I keep mentioning the voter demographic breakdown.
If Trump won a majority of different demographics..if Trump were pro-Palestine, I think you’d see way more blame being laid at the feet of the Democratic Party.
But neither of those are true.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:19 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
The reason Black people overwhelmingly vote for Democrats is not due to a love of the Democratic Party, it’s because the Republican Party is so much worse. It basically begins and ends there.
This is why I keep mentioning the voter demographic breakdown.
If Trump won a majority of different demographics..if Trump were pro-Palestine, I think you’d see way more blame being laid at the feet of the Democratic Party.
But neither of those are true.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:19 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
So who are you all looking to support in 2028? What path do you see out of this situation, in other words? Who's the candidate and who is the party, and how do we support them?
posted by cashman at 7:22 AM on November 11
posted by cashman at 7:22 AM on November 11
AOC, Democrats. Support by using whatever propaganda tools you have at hand to raise widespread popular demand for progressive assets taxes targeted at extremely wealthy families.
Think seriously about this story and message, do your level best to work out why it's wrong, and when after doing that you've come to realize that it isn't wrong, get behind pushing it as hard as you can through all your personal networks.
posted by flabdablet at 7:23 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
Think seriously about this story and message, do your level best to work out why it's wrong, and when after doing that you've come to realize that it isn't wrong, get behind pushing it as hard as you can through all your personal networks.
posted by flabdablet at 7:23 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
What is the Democratic Party going to say to motivate white voters in a way that doesn’t alienate non-white voters?
I’m Latine and I also think our grocery and gas and other bills are too high. I would have in no way felt alienated if Harris and the rest of the Democratic Party had come out with some hardline suggestions for changing the economic situation. Nor, as said above, would I have felt attacked if Harris had promised to make a push for full IVF funding.
posted by corb at 7:24 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
I’m Latine and I also think our grocery and gas and other bills are too high. I would have in no way felt alienated if Harris and the rest of the Democratic Party had come out with some hardline suggestions for changing the economic situation. Nor, as said above, would I have felt attacked if Harris had promised to make a push for full IVF funding.
posted by corb at 7:24 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
The reason Black people overwhelmingly vote for Democrats is not due to a love of the Democratic Party, it’s because the Republican Party is so much worse. It basically begins and ends there.
Yeah, obviously. That's why I vote for Democrats, too. Despite them generally being reprehensible. I am capable of acknowledging they are awful and voting for them as the lesser evil.
And yet here we are with people looking under every rock for some perfidious progressive defector, instead of accepting that people didn't vote for Harris because they are bigoted (against Black people, women, trans people, Muslims, immigrants, etc.) or because the economic situation is terrible.
The internal enemy is desirable because they can be punished. The reality is that the people who beat the Democrats are the Republicans, and fighting them will actually be dangerous.
So who are you all looking to support in 2028? What path do you see out of this situation, in other words?
I will be hoping to support my community and to survive until the midterms in 2026. If I am around I will vote for people with Ds by their names. If I am dead, I won't.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:29 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
Yeah, obviously. That's why I vote for Democrats, too. Despite them generally being reprehensible. I am capable of acknowledging they are awful and voting for them as the lesser evil.
And yet here we are with people looking under every rock for some perfidious progressive defector, instead of accepting that people didn't vote for Harris because they are bigoted (against Black people, women, trans people, Muslims, immigrants, etc.) or because the economic situation is terrible.
The internal enemy is desirable because they can be punished. The reality is that the people who beat the Democrats are the Republicans, and fighting them will actually be dangerous.
So who are you all looking to support in 2028? What path do you see out of this situation, in other words?
I will be hoping to support my community and to survive until the midterms in 2026. If I am around I will vote for people with Ds by their names. If I am dead, I won't.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:29 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
Sorry coming in just to share this. When I said (based on my own experience) that politicians standing for liberal or progressive values should not play around with authoritarian measures because all it does is highlight the disconnect that tends to lose them power while all they have done is just make things much easier for actual authoritarians: House Fast Tracks Bill That Would Give Trump Power to Target Nonprofits -
The legislation would let the Treasury Department revoke tax-exempt status for any “terrorist supporting organization"
“They attached it to a super popular bill that everyone likes because they want to make it hard for people to vote ‘no,’” Kia Hamadanchy, senior policy counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), told The Intercept. “The reality is that if they really wanted the hostage thing to become law, they’d pass that by itself.”
Hamadanchy said that this bill is “about stifling dissent and to chill advocacy, because people are going to avoid certain things and take certain positions in order to avoid this designation.”
From the Intercept: It’s unclear how Democrats will view the bill in light of Trump’s return to power. A spokesperson for Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, who did not oppose a previous version of the nonprofit provision, told The Intercept Doggett is likely to vote against the measure following Trump’s reelection.
The current version — which was introduced by Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., and co-sponsored by Brad Schneider, D-Ill., and Dina Titus, D-Nev. — is paired with a provision that would provide tax relief to American hostages held by terror groups and other Americans unjustly imprisoned abroad.
Hamadanchy said combining the two provisions was likely a ploy to push the nonprofit-terror bill through with as little opposition as possible.
posted by cendawanita at 7:31 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
The legislation would let the Treasury Department revoke tax-exempt status for any “terrorist supporting organization"
“They attached it to a super popular bill that everyone likes because they want to make it hard for people to vote ‘no,’” Kia Hamadanchy, senior policy counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), told The Intercept. “The reality is that if they really wanted the hostage thing to become law, they’d pass that by itself.”
Hamadanchy said that this bill is “about stifling dissent and to chill advocacy, because people are going to avoid certain things and take certain positions in order to avoid this designation.”
From the Intercept: It’s unclear how Democrats will view the bill in light of Trump’s return to power. A spokesperson for Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, who did not oppose a previous version of the nonprofit provision, told The Intercept Doggett is likely to vote against the measure following Trump’s reelection.
The current version — which was introduced by Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., and co-sponsored by Brad Schneider, D-Ill., and Dina Titus, D-Nev. — is paired with a provision that would provide tax relief to American hostages held by terror groups and other Americans unjustly imprisoned abroad.
Hamadanchy said combining the two provisions was likely a ploy to push the nonprofit-terror bill through with as little opposition as possible.
posted by cendawanita at 7:31 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
And yet here we are with people looking under every rock for some perfidious progressive defector, instead of accepting that people didn't vote for Harris because they are bigoted (against Black people, women, trans people, Muslims, immigrants, etc.) or because the economic situation is terrible.
I said above it’s getting to the point the distinctions don’t matter. The resentment I’m seeing is not towards progressives but white people in general. And the backlash to Bernie’s statement illustrates this.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:40 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
I said above it’s getting to the point the distinctions don’t matter. The resentment I’m seeing is not towards progressives but white people in general. And the backlash to Bernie’s statement illustrates this.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:40 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
What path do you see out of this situation, in other words?
The only path that leads out of this situation without circling back to end up straight back in it again is the one with with the modest little signpost on it that reads
All forms of authoritarianism are unacceptable.
Reject it in your home, reject it in your workplace,
and reject it in your political representatives.
Educate yourself, then educate others.
Pay attention! Waste not! Democracy now!
But there are many paths, and all of them are wider and better paved than that one, and all their signposts are huge and lit up in flashing neon, with much shorter messages in large and friendly fonts promising free shipping and rewards points for loyal shoppers, and in fact I have very little confidence that significant numbers of people are going to walk along the path that would actually take them somewhere better instead of merely somewhere familiar.
posted by flabdablet at 7:43 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
The only path that leads out of this situation without circling back to end up straight back in it again is the one with with the modest little signpost on it that reads
Reject it in your home, reject it in your workplace,
and reject it in your political representatives.
Educate yourself, then educate others.
Pay attention! Waste not! Democracy now!
But there are many paths, and all of them are wider and better paved than that one, and all their signposts are huge and lit up in flashing neon, with much shorter messages in large and friendly fonts promising free shipping and rewards points for loyal shoppers, and in fact I have very little confidence that significant numbers of people are going to walk along the path that would actually take them somewhere better instead of merely somewhere familiar.
posted by flabdablet at 7:43 AM on November 11 [7 favorites]
What they'll do instead is throw handfuls of their own faeces at anybody who does show any inclination to depart via that path.
posted by flabdablet at 7:50 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 7:50 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
>White people. Please get your shit together.
In all seriousness, I have no idea how we can do that. White culture, particularly male white culture, has a worldview of toxic independence so strong that I wasn't able to convince my IMMEDIATE family members not to vote for Trump despite being queer, let alone my extended family.
I've already tried everything I can think of - I've argued, I've tried to educate, I've gone low contact. They don't care.
posted by zug at 7:53 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
In all seriousness, I have no idea how we can do that. White culture, particularly male white culture, has a worldview of toxic independence so strong that I wasn't able to convince my IMMEDIATE family members not to vote for Trump despite being queer, let alone my extended family.
I've already tried everything I can think of - I've argued, I've tried to educate, I've gone low contact. They don't care.
posted by zug at 7:53 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
I said above it’s getting to the point the distinctions don’t matter. The resentment I’m seeing is not towards progressives but white people in general.
There is resentment about white people. Seems legit.
But what do you expect people who couldn't even convince either political party to support international law to about it?
Do you think a political fringe being more deferential to the establishment online is going to make a difference?
The fascists won. That is the reality we live in. If you think there is no meaningful difference between them and the people whose heads they are going to crack for getting in their way, then so be it.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
There is resentment about white people. Seems legit.
But what do you expect people who couldn't even convince either political party to support international law to about it?
Do you think a political fringe being more deferential to the establishment online is going to make a difference?
The fascists won. That is the reality we live in. If you think there is no meaningful difference between them and the people whose heads they are going to crack for getting in their way, then so be it.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
instead of accepting that people didn't vote for Harris because they are bigoted
I don't accept it. She's effectively the incumbent of an administration that armed a genocide and the economy is shitty. Foreign and domestic realms are not in a good spot.
Every indication is that she did better than Biden would have (biden is a white man).
Republicans would vote for Candace Owens if they could.
As the dissent piece noted, women have won office in far more bigoted environments that this one.
There's lots of evidence that, conditional on a woman being on the ballot, voters are more likely to vote for a woman than a man.
The sentiment that if only voters were as smart as me and not as bigoted as me, they would have voted for who I voted for, is a comforting one, but what's the next step after that?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I don't accept it. She's effectively the incumbent of an administration that armed a genocide and the economy is shitty. Foreign and domestic realms are not in a good spot.
Every indication is that she did better than Biden would have (biden is a white man).
Republicans would vote for Candace Owens if they could.
As the dissent piece noted, women have won office in far more bigoted environments that this one.
There's lots of evidence that, conditional on a woman being on the ballot, voters are more likely to vote for a woman than a man.
The sentiment that if only voters were as smart as me and not as bigoted as me, they would have voted for who I voted for, is a comforting one, but what's the next step after that?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:57 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Trump voters are definitely motivated by bigotry. Some but not all of it directed at the candidate. Lots of Trump voters could care less about the rave or sex of the candidate, but can't wait to bash trans and Muslim people.
posted by pattern juggler at 7:59 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 7:59 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
Thing is: it's almost never one thing, it's all the things. And there are a lot of things.
I suggest picking the ones closest to you, working on those as best you can, and trying your best not to shit on other people simply for picking the ones closest to them.
If we can all agree on that, then eventually there will be enough people working on enough of the things to make for less of them.
posted by flabdablet at 8:03 AM on November 11 [14 favorites]
I suggest picking the ones closest to you, working on those as best you can, and trying your best not to shit on other people simply for picking the ones closest to them.
If we can all agree on that, then eventually there will be enough people working on enough of the things to make for less of them.
posted by flabdablet at 8:03 AM on November 11 [14 favorites]
Dissent:
posted by flabdablet at 8:36 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
In our time, there are entrenched institutional liberal forces, not only in formal politics but in the universities, the press, the legal system, the nonprofit sector, and even the corporate world, that intone the threat Trumpism poses to democracy and the rule of law, yet work every day to defeat their own internal left-wing challengers: student protests, labor struggles, “woke excesses.”Here in Australia, the face-eating leopards have just had a win in Queensland that could easily be seen as at least partially due to Labor having taken its eye off the main game in its effort to undermine the Greens. Which, incidentally, they succeeded in doing so well played, I guess? At least we know in advance who Labor is going to blame when they lose the next Federal election to the Trumpian potato.
posted by flabdablet at 8:36 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
particularly male white culture, has a worldview of toxic independence so strong
I happily don't have any Trumpers in my feeds due to diligent blocking over the past few years, but one gentleman, middle-aged, white, self-employed, and seems to be of the aggresively-independent vein, posted a long message about how if roughly 50% of everyone believes each side then it shoudl be easy for everyone to come together and cooperate for a solution and it is just so blind to what's going on that I didn't even know how to respond.
On the other gender, a friend who is part of an arts-for-recovering-addicts program, which as with many charities is managed by rich white women with little else to do, spent some time at a recent organization meeting talking about the election from the viewpoint of what he called "white women syndrome", again completely blind to how minorities of all shapes and sizes are at serious risk.
In both cases I think they just see themselves as mostly-liberal but the threats that they see to themselves must be the absolute limit, the maximum, nothing could be worse than that, so they wonder out loud, why's everybody so worked up?
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:55 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
I happily don't have any Trumpers in my feeds due to diligent blocking over the past few years, but one gentleman, middle-aged, white, self-employed, and seems to be of the aggresively-independent vein, posted a long message about how if roughly 50% of everyone believes each side then it shoudl be easy for everyone to come together and cooperate for a solution and it is just so blind to what's going on that I didn't even know how to respond.
On the other gender, a friend who is part of an arts-for-recovering-addicts program, which as with many charities is managed by rich white women with little else to do, spent some time at a recent organization meeting talking about the election from the viewpoint of what he called "white women syndrome", again completely blind to how minorities of all shapes and sizes are at serious risk.
In both cases I think they just see themselves as mostly-liberal but the threats that they see to themselves must be the absolute limit, the maximum, nothing could be worse than that, so they wonder out loud, why's everybody so worked up?
posted by AzraelBrown at 8:55 AM on November 11 [8 favorites]
Lots of Trump voters could care less about the race or sex of the candidate
Oh, I don't think that's true at all. They could've had Haley, after all.
posted by mittens at 8:58 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Oh, I don't think that's true at all. They could've had Haley, after all.
posted by mittens at 8:58 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
With the GOP poised to radically remake the US to entrench white male privilege and attack, undermine, and deny the rights of anyone who obstructs in any way that privilege, I ask you: why is the Democratic Party incapable of radical policy to counter that? So many campaign choices voiced the importance of this election and promised actions that would have been familiar 10 or 20 years ago (i.e. same old same old). If Harris had simply stood for international law and withheld arms shipments to Israel? That is radical? But apparently it would have lost her the election? We will never know. We will never know about radical housing and healthcare policy, big ideas to address economic stress on working class households. So the Dems ran what they ran and lost to fascism. Either the Dems miscalculated or the US is no longer capable of holding meaningful elections where most people can choose their political preferences. For the love of god--looking at you, girlmightlive--can we drop the narrative that the fascists won because people were oposed to genocide and a few of them may have voted or not voted accordingly?
posted by ginger.beef at 9:26 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 9:26 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
For the love of god--looking at you, girlmightlive--can we drop the narrative that the fascists won because people were oposed to genocide and a few of them may have voted or not voted accordingly?
I won’t. I’m not going to give as much credit to voters as others want to do, that this is about policy.
posted by girlmightlive at 9:30 AM on November 11
I won’t. I’m not going to give as much credit to voters as others want to do, that this is about policy.
posted by girlmightlive at 9:30 AM on November 11
You just don't have the numbers. The protest voters on Twitter did not decide the election, its simply not possible.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:35 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:35 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
I’m not going to give as much credit to voters as others want to do, that this is about policy.
I would actually like to hear more about this, because obviously I have my little theory about policy, "what the democrats should have done," but there's a good question to be asked along the lines of, "what did the republics actually do? what did they get right, when it comes to winning?" We are watching "identity politics" be batted around as though it were a democrat thing, a democrat problem...but what is Trump, if not the expression of white identity politics? If racial resentment is a winning play, then is there anything democrats can do, other than sit around and wait their turn, wait for demographics to shift? (I mean, anything other than saying "we're gonna be SO HARD ON IMMIGRANTS" which clearly didn't work.)
I don't think we want the democrats to be The Party of Aggrieved White People, so...how do you win over a blob of aggrieved white people if they are not responsive to policy?
posted by mittens at 9:39 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I would actually like to hear more about this, because obviously I have my little theory about policy, "what the democrats should have done," but there's a good question to be asked along the lines of, "what did the republics actually do? what did they get right, when it comes to winning?" We are watching "identity politics" be batted around as though it were a democrat thing, a democrat problem...but what is Trump, if not the expression of white identity politics? If racial resentment is a winning play, then is there anything democrats can do, other than sit around and wait their turn, wait for demographics to shift? (I mean, anything other than saying "we're gonna be SO HARD ON IMMIGRANTS" which clearly didn't work.)
I don't think we want the democrats to be The Party of Aggrieved White People, so...how do you win over a blob of aggrieved white people if they are not responsive to policy?
posted by mittens at 9:39 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
So who are you all looking to support in 2028? What path do you see out of this situation, in other words?
I have no fucking clue.
But I do know the candidate will be a white man. A cis het white Christian man. With a conservative voting record from a conservative state. I don't want that, but I'm pretty sure that's what's going to happen.
The Democrats will decide that the lesson to learn here is that the American people won't tolerate a minority of any sort as President, that Obama was a once in a millennium fluke, and that from now until the end of time the only way to safeguard the success of the Democratic party is to nominate only cis het white Christian men. They will bewail this sometimes, and say they really wish they could put in people who weren't cis het white Christian men but America is just fundamentally too conservative to vote for such a person.
As far as elections and the future go, I tend to agree with the people who say we should be looking at Hungary rather than German for the model of how Trump and Project 2025 will move forward.
We have two advantages, firstly Trump is lazy, much more interested in punishing his enemies than doing ideology stuff, so old and tired he's going to spend even more time golfing and having "Presidential time" than he did back in 2016.
The other advantage is that the Republican Party is factionalized and deeply split.
We'll get a bit of a measure of how intense it's going to be on Jan 20 when we see how many Executive Orders Trump issues. They know they need to strike fast and get as much done as quickly as possible so as to monkeywrench the 2026 midterms. They also know that while Trump will claim a "mandate" (and God help us, he's not entirely wrong) that wears off quickly.
So, if we assume that just outright declaring himself dictator for life, suspending the Constitution, and going maximal Fascist right off the bat is probably not going to happen what will?
posted by sotonohito at 9:44 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
I have no fucking clue.
But I do know the candidate will be a white man. A cis het white Christian man. With a conservative voting record from a conservative state. I don't want that, but I'm pretty sure that's what's going to happen.
The Democrats will decide that the lesson to learn here is that the American people won't tolerate a minority of any sort as President, that Obama was a once in a millennium fluke, and that from now until the end of time the only way to safeguard the success of the Democratic party is to nominate only cis het white Christian men. They will bewail this sometimes, and say they really wish they could put in people who weren't cis het white Christian men but America is just fundamentally too conservative to vote for such a person.
As far as elections and the future go, I tend to agree with the people who say we should be looking at Hungary rather than German for the model of how Trump and Project 2025 will move forward.
We have two advantages, firstly Trump is lazy, much more interested in punishing his enemies than doing ideology stuff, so old and tired he's going to spend even more time golfing and having "Presidential time" than he did back in 2016.
The other advantage is that the Republican Party is factionalized and deeply split.
We'll get a bit of a measure of how intense it's going to be on Jan 20 when we see how many Executive Orders Trump issues. They know they need to strike fast and get as much done as quickly as possible so as to monkeywrench the 2026 midterms. They also know that while Trump will claim a "mandate" (and God help us, he's not entirely wrong) that wears off quickly.
So, if we assume that just outright declaring himself dictator for life, suspending the Constitution, and going maximal Fascist right off the bat is probably not going to happen what will?
posted by sotonohito at 9:44 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
On non-preview:
mittens I explicitly do NOT have a theory of what the Democrats should have done, I think the economic trouble and the apathy about Trump's threat to democracy was big enough that Harris couldn't have won in any likely scenario. I'd LOVE to say that I think if she'd just gone hard left she would have won, but I don't think it's true.
Aside from Gaza I think Harris was remarkably effective and did all she could. She pushed hard on abortion, and it somehow got separated from Trump in the minds of close to 10% of the voters. She pushed hard on Trump being awful and no one gave a shit. I do think she could have possibly picked up a few votes in Michigan by being less enthusiastic about Israel's genocide but even if I'm right it wouldn't have won her any other swing states and given how the Democratic turnout was generally shit due to the economy even if I was right it might not have gotten her 80,000 extra votes in Michigan.
I'd absolutely love to trash Harris and say that she fucked up massively and it totally could have been turned around if only she did X. I do not say that because I don't think it's true.
posted by sotonohito at 9:51 AM on November 11 [12 favorites]
mittens I explicitly do NOT have a theory of what the Democrats should have done, I think the economic trouble and the apathy about Trump's threat to democracy was big enough that Harris couldn't have won in any likely scenario. I'd LOVE to say that I think if she'd just gone hard left she would have won, but I don't think it's true.
Aside from Gaza I think Harris was remarkably effective and did all she could. She pushed hard on abortion, and it somehow got separated from Trump in the minds of close to 10% of the voters. She pushed hard on Trump being awful and no one gave a shit. I do think she could have possibly picked up a few votes in Michigan by being less enthusiastic about Israel's genocide but even if I'm right it wouldn't have won her any other swing states and given how the Democratic turnout was generally shit due to the economy even if I was right it might not have gotten her 80,000 extra votes in Michigan.
I'd absolutely love to trash Harris and say that she fucked up massively and it totally could have been turned around if only she did X. I do not say that because I don't think it's true.
posted by sotonohito at 9:51 AM on November 11 [12 favorites]
From September: Voters narrowly support Trump's tariff pitch, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds: "The poll found one in three Democrats said they were more likely to vote for a candidate backing higher tariffs and steep levies on Chinese goods, compared with two-thirds who said they were less likely to do so."
posted by BungaDunga at 10:08 AM on November 11
posted by BungaDunga at 10:08 AM on November 11
We'll get a bit of a measure of how intense it's going to be on Jan 20 when we see how many Executive Orders Trump issues.
He's already demanding the Senate rubber stamp all his appointments without debate or hearings. I think that's the first test of the Republican majority - are they going to suspend usual Senate procedures and just let him appoint by decree?
posted by BungaDunga at 10:10 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
He's already demanding the Senate rubber stamp all his appointments without debate or hearings. I think that's the first test of the Republican majority - are they going to suspend usual Senate procedures and just let him appoint by decree?
posted by BungaDunga at 10:10 AM on November 11 [4 favorites]
Pete Davis, The Nation, "The US Is a Civic Desert. To Survive, the Democratic Party Needs to Transform Itself",
Civic organizations started wondering why they were bothering with all the local pageantry and community-building in the first place. Soon enough, Skocpol says, “membership” no longer meant meeting up with one’s neighbors; it meant being on a list—a list of people who would send checks to national managers in centers of power in exchange for a bumper sticker, an annual report, and the occasional call to action to do a few days of door-knocking, phone-banking, or letter-writing.posted by audi alteram partem at 10:41 AM on November 11 [6 favorites]
He's already demanding the Senate rubber stamp all his appointments without debate or hearings. I think that's the first test of the Republican majority - are they going to suspend usual Senate procedures and just let him appoint by decree?
I remember being told repeatedly that the Democrats couldn't just do that, though no one ever explained why.
I don't think norms are going to save us.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:44 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
I remember being told repeatedly that the Democrats couldn't just do that, though no one ever explained why.
I don't think norms are going to save us.
posted by pattern juggler at 10:44 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
are they going to suspend usual Senate procedures and just let him appoint by decree?
My dumb optimism says that you don't get to be a Senator without caring about the Senate's power above all else...and so you're not going to roll over like that. Of course, I keep thinking the same thing about the FDA and all the other stuff on the chopping block...when there are multibillion-dollar corporations at play, are they really going to allow the regulations that they build their businesses around, to just evaporate? Or like, are banks going to be all, well, he's the president, so if he wants to end fractional reserve banking, that's his call? (That kind of goes along with the whole Musk/Trump love affair...there's a version of that where we all end up being controlled by Neuralink implants, but a far more likely version where their relationship implodes and the damage, while extensive, is not quite as nightmarish as it could have been.)
posted by mittens at 10:44 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
My dumb optimism says that you don't get to be a Senator without caring about the Senate's power above all else...and so you're not going to roll over like that. Of course, I keep thinking the same thing about the FDA and all the other stuff on the chopping block...when there are multibillion-dollar corporations at play, are they really going to allow the regulations that they build their businesses around, to just evaporate? Or like, are banks going to be all, well, he's the president, so if he wants to end fractional reserve banking, that's his call? (That kind of goes along with the whole Musk/Trump love affair...there's a version of that where we all end up being controlled by Neuralink implants, but a far more likely version where their relationship implodes and the damage, while extensive, is not quite as nightmarish as it could have been.)
posted by mittens at 10:44 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
But I do know the candidate will be a white man. A cis het white Christian man. With a conservative voting record from a conservative state. I don't want that, but I'm pretty sure that's what's going to happen.I don't think the Republicans will win the White House in 2028 but given the Dems' luck- and general level of competence- if they ended up nominating a candidate like that the GOP could run Winsome Sears or Caitlyn Jenner or Laura Loomer and somehow win 400+ EVs anyway.
The Democrats will decide that the lesson to learn here is that the American people won't tolerate a minority of any sort as President, that Obama was a once in a millennium fluke, and that from now until the end of time the only way to safeguard the success of the Democratic party is to nominate only cis het white Christian men.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:47 AM on November 11
Everyone should read the article posted by audi alteram partem upthread, it is spot fucking on. Money quote for me:
“Instead of funding itself primarily through membership dues, the party offers fancy events for the wealthy and ceaseless, disrespectful texts for the rest of us.”
posted by corb at 10:53 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
“Instead of funding itself primarily through membership dues, the party offers fancy events for the wealthy and ceaseless, disrespectful texts for the rest of us.”
posted by corb at 10:53 AM on November 11 [9 favorites]
I just realized that's my current state senator and newly elected county commissioner in the photo in the Nation opinion piece.
Note: The Adams County Democrats meet at the Pipefitters Local 208, which is one of those unions that tends to support Republicans due to real estate development interests. The Local 208 has endorsed the last two mayors of my town, both Republicans.
posted by audi alteram partem at 10:55 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Note: The Adams County Democrats meet at the Pipefitters Local 208, which is one of those unions that tends to support Republicans due to real estate development interests. The Local 208 has endorsed the last two mayors of my town, both Republicans.
posted by audi alteram partem at 10:55 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
how do you win over a blob of aggrieved white people if they are not responsive to policy
1932 was a FDR landslide, for obvious reasons (now *that* was a sucky economy).
1948 not too up on this one . . . Truman campaigned on a "Do-Nothing Congress", since the GOP had retaken control the House in 1946. He won narrowly but the Dems swept back into power in the House, taking 75 GOP seats.
This reminds me that part of the problem of being a Dem now is we've entirely lost the Southern (i.e. KKK) Wing of the party.
1960 Kennedy, 'nuff said though it was still a nailbiter due to residual bigotry against Catholics (Al Smith ran into this same pushback in '28).
1976 Carter was a decent southern conservative vs a decent midwestern conservative. Inflation hit (Nixon Shock, "Whip Inflation Now!") partially thanks to the OPEC oil embargo and loss of our economic suzerainty over mideast oil production (we were paying them ~$1/barrel but they wanted, and begin to get, more). Economy sucked, see below.
1992 Clinton was a decent southern conservative vs a decent northeastern conservative. Economy sucked, see below.
2008 economy actually sucked of course with the GFC ending the 2002-2006 boom times that were floated on literally trillions of dodgy mortgage debt expansion. 4M people were on unemployment in 2008.
2020 yikes.
Ok, here's "the below":
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Anhk
This graphs the ferocity of layoffs: the number of years before every worker is laid off and claims unemployment. Shit was good in the 1960s, decent for Nixon's reelection, but really fell apart in the mid-70s.
Things were much better in the late 1970s but of course we had the dreaded wage-price spiral so they put Volcker in to stop people being able to borrow any money 1980 - 1982. Great medicine! Kills the patients but you can revive them, mostly.
The early 1990s recession sucked and that got Clinton into office. Things were slowly bouncing back in the "Jobless Recovery" after the Dotcom recession of 2001-2002 but Kerry came close, only needing Ohio to win office.
2008 was, surprisingly pretty bad (3M people out of work), but not quite as violent as the Ford and Volcker recessions.
I don't subscribe to the Green Lantern theory of politics, to get good government we need a good House and Senate. This . . . is not going all that well, "AOC" excepted.
posted by torokunai at 10:58 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
1932 was a FDR landslide, for obvious reasons (now *that* was a sucky economy).
1948 not too up on this one . . . Truman campaigned on a "Do-Nothing Congress", since the GOP had retaken control the House in 1946. He won narrowly but the Dems swept back into power in the House, taking 75 GOP seats.
This reminds me that part of the problem of being a Dem now is we've entirely lost the Southern (i.e. KKK) Wing of the party.
1960 Kennedy, 'nuff said though it was still a nailbiter due to residual bigotry against Catholics (Al Smith ran into this same pushback in '28).
1976 Carter was a decent southern conservative vs a decent midwestern conservative. Inflation hit (Nixon Shock, "Whip Inflation Now!") partially thanks to the OPEC oil embargo and loss of our economic suzerainty over mideast oil production (we were paying them ~$1/barrel but they wanted, and begin to get, more). Economy sucked, see below.
1992 Clinton was a decent southern conservative vs a decent northeastern conservative. Economy sucked, see below.
2008 economy actually sucked of course with the GFC ending the 2002-2006 boom times that were floated on literally trillions of dodgy mortgage debt expansion. 4M people were on unemployment in 2008.
2020 yikes.
Ok, here's "the below":
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Anhk
This graphs the ferocity of layoffs: the number of years before every worker is laid off and claims unemployment. Shit was good in the 1960s, decent for Nixon's reelection, but really fell apart in the mid-70s.
Things were much better in the late 1970s but of course we had the dreaded wage-price spiral so they put Volcker in to stop people being able to borrow any money 1980 - 1982. Great medicine! Kills the patients but you can revive them, mostly.
The early 1990s recession sucked and that got Clinton into office. Things were slowly bouncing back in the "Jobless Recovery" after the Dotcom recession of 2001-2002 but Kerry came close, only needing Ohio to win office.
2008 was, surprisingly pretty bad (3M people out of work), but not quite as violent as the Ford and Volcker recessions.
I don't subscribe to the Green Lantern theory of politics, to get good government we need a good House and Senate. This . . . is not going all that well, "AOC" excepted.
posted by torokunai at 10:58 AM on November 11 [5 favorites]
I think the Democrats are still functioning in a world where there is one Rush Limbaugh when in reality there are 20 Rush Limbaughs now. The firehose of right wing media is constant and steady. AOC has talked about this.
I haven’t said Harris lost because of protest votes. I don’t believe the vast majority of Americans actually care about what happens In Gaza.
The reason I am, though, bringing up the race is not to equate the two. But I am going to say that, whenever Democrats lose and progressive people come out and say “don’t blame us!” we are missing something here.
For what it’s worth, I think the Democratic Party sucks a lot, and I disagree with them on many things.
But despite Trump winning, he still lost most age demographics and almost every religious and ethnic minority. They way many of you have cited Gaza as a reason for people not voting for her, then I’d also like some insight on the conclusion one could draw that apparently only white voters care about what’s happening in Gaza.
And seeing a lot of people had no problem voting for candidates with almost her exact platform, I disagree with the notion said above that protest or apathy weren’t a factor.
And I do think things like the three month long fight over whether or not Biden drops out, or the Uncommited movement do matter and do have an impact on the perceptions people have of Democrats/liberals/leftists. Even if I support or empathize with them. For the reason that these are things Republicans do not do.
posted by girlmightlive at 11:18 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
I haven’t said Harris lost because of protest votes. I don’t believe the vast majority of Americans actually care about what happens In Gaza.
The reason I am, though, bringing up the race is not to equate the two. But I am going to say that, whenever Democrats lose and progressive people come out and say “don’t blame us!” we are missing something here.
For what it’s worth, I think the Democratic Party sucks a lot, and I disagree with them on many things.
But despite Trump winning, he still lost most age demographics and almost every religious and ethnic minority. They way many of you have cited Gaza as a reason for people not voting for her, then I’d also like some insight on the conclusion one could draw that apparently only white voters care about what’s happening in Gaza.
And seeing a lot of people had no problem voting for candidates with almost her exact platform, I disagree with the notion said above that protest or apathy weren’t a factor.
And I do think things like the three month long fight over whether or not Biden drops out, or the Uncommited movement do matter and do have an impact on the perceptions people have of Democrats/liberals/leftists. Even if I support or empathize with them. For the reason that these are things Republicans do not do.
posted by girlmightlive at 11:18 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
They way many of you have cited Gaza as a reason for people not voting for her, then I’d also like some insight on the conclusion one could draw that apparently only white voters care about what’s happening in Gaza.
how does the second follow from the first.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:33 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
how does the second follow from the first.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:33 AM on November 11 [3 favorites]
The reason I am, though, bringing up the race is not to equate the two. But I am going to say that, whenever Democrats lose and progressive people come out and say “don’t blame us!” we are missing something here.
Given that we had years of narratives about the treacherous left since 2016 and that other people in this thread were already attempting to find some internal enemy to lash out at, I think it is entirely reasonable to tell them to stop doing that.
I am sorry that I misread your intention, though. I honestly thought you were making the case that opposition to Biden and Harris over Gaza was some figleaf over racial bigotry against Harris. I am glad to see that isn't the case.
And I do think things like the three month long fight over whether or not Biden drops out, or the Uncommited movement do matter and do have an impact on the perceptions people have of Democrats/liberals/leftists.
I think you are right, but I also think it that is unavoidable. As long as we make some pretense towards being a democracy, there will be people who criticize the people in power, even when the alternative is worse. If we can't do that, then this whole system is too badly broken to be worth keeping it and we ought to replace it. (Which is my opinion in any case.) Because the alternative where nobody says anything about atrocities isn't just undesirable, it is unattainable.
posted by pattern juggler at 11:34 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Given that we had years of narratives about the treacherous left since 2016 and that other people in this thread were already attempting to find some internal enemy to lash out at, I think it is entirely reasonable to tell them to stop doing that.
I am sorry that I misread your intention, though. I honestly thought you were making the case that opposition to Biden and Harris over Gaza was some figleaf over racial bigotry against Harris. I am glad to see that isn't the case.
And I do think things like the three month long fight over whether or not Biden drops out, or the Uncommited movement do matter and do have an impact on the perceptions people have of Democrats/liberals/leftists.
I think you are right, but I also think it that is unavoidable. As long as we make some pretense towards being a democracy, there will be people who criticize the people in power, even when the alternative is worse. If we can't do that, then this whole system is too badly broken to be worth keeping it and we ought to replace it. (Which is my opinion in any case.) Because the alternative where nobody says anything about atrocities isn't just undesirable, it is unattainable.
posted by pattern juggler at 11:34 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Something I haven't seen mentioned in the many many comments here is that the slow walking of prosecutions, sentencing, or otherwise any actual consequences for January 6th and for Trump's other numerous crimes makes it really hard to sell to the public that Trump is dangerous. "34 felonies" but he's still on TV and not in jail. If you're not a high information person it's easy to conclude that claims about the danger Trump presents are not true.
posted by Nec_variat_lux_fracta_colorem at 11:41 AM on November 11 [15 favorites]
posted by Nec_variat_lux_fracta_colorem at 11:41 AM on November 11 [15 favorites]
With the GOP poised to radically remake the US to entrench white male privilege and attack, undermine, and deny the rights of anyone who obstructs in any way that privilege, I ask you: why is the Democratic Party incapable of radical policy to counter that?
As an adjective, radical is not a character trait or thing (such as honesty or competence). Voters aren't saying, "This side was more radical than the other side, so I voted for them." The radical aspect of conservatism is to withdraw the safety net and reverse other protections, blaming it for everything they claim is wrong, by convincing more people that the other side has gone too far. A winnable counter-strategy would be for liberals to assert that radical conservatives want to end public safeguards and bring back well-known horrors associated with it. Then show the horrors in ads that Fox network is required to air only during election season. I fully acknowledge that radical represents an emotional state these days, and so appears to be necessary for balance when emotions are high. But in order to address a radical opponent it requires exposing their delusions directly, instead of proposing the exact opposite of their position, which is then a trap.
posted by Brian B. at 11:47 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
As an adjective, radical is not a character trait or thing (such as honesty or competence). Voters aren't saying, "This side was more radical than the other side, so I voted for them." The radical aspect of conservatism is to withdraw the safety net and reverse other protections, blaming it for everything they claim is wrong, by convincing more people that the other side has gone too far. A winnable counter-strategy would be for liberals to assert that radical conservatives want to end public safeguards and bring back well-known horrors associated with it. Then show the horrors in ads that Fox network is required to air only during election season. I fully acknowledge that radical represents an emotional state these days, and so appears to be necessary for balance when emotions are high. But in order to address a radical opponent it requires exposing their delusions directly, instead of proposing the exact opposite of their position, which is then a trap.
posted by Brian B. at 11:47 AM on November 11 [1 favorite]
the slow walking of prosecutions,
To be fair, when prosecutions did begin to happen they were immediately sandbagged by MAGA judges, and SCOTUS is probably planning to toss out the NY state case that he was convicted on.
posted by BungaDunga at 11:56 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
To be fair, when prosecutions did begin to happen they were immediately sandbagged by MAGA judges, and SCOTUS is probably planning to toss out the NY state case that he was convicted on.
posted by BungaDunga at 11:56 AM on November 11 [2 favorites]
. They way many of you have cited Gaza as a reason for people not voting for her, then I’d also like some insight on the conclusion one could draw that apparently only white voters care about what’s happening in Gaza.
Why on earth would you assume that people for whom Gaza was an issue voted for Trump rather than staying home and not voting at all? Compare Harris' vote total to Biden's in 2020; a lot of voters did exactly that. And among those who voted for Trump rather than Harris because of Gaza: Arab-Americans in Michigan (who are also white, per the definition used by the US Census Bureau, if not in the eyes of most Americans, and probably not in the sense you're using "white" here, either, as "European-American").
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:17 PM on November 11
Why on earth would you assume that people for whom Gaza was an issue voted for Trump rather than staying home and not voting at all? Compare Harris' vote total to Biden's in 2020; a lot of voters did exactly that. And among those who voted for Trump rather than Harris because of Gaza: Arab-Americans in Michigan (who are also white, per the definition used by the US Census Bureau, if not in the eyes of most Americans, and probably not in the sense you're using "white" here, either, as "European-American").
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:17 PM on November 11
I genuinely doubt Gaza moved the needle one way or the other. It may have contributed to some people being demoralized enough not to go through the effort of voting, but even there I suspect it was one factor among many. I just don't believe enough Americans care about Gaza to have won or lost this election for Harris.
To be clear, I think that is grounds to condemn the American electorate. It should have mattered. Trump, Biden, and Harris should have all been disqualified. But that isn't the country we live in.
posted by pattern juggler at 12:23 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
To be clear, I think that is grounds to condemn the American electorate. It should have mattered. Trump, Biden, and Harris should have all been disqualified. But that isn't the country we live in.
posted by pattern juggler at 12:23 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
BungaDunga Sure, but if the prosecutions had started back in 2020 there would have been a LOT more time for people to be decrying the Republican, Trump appointed, Judges helping Trump escape his crimes.
If probably would have helped a lot if people with a national scale megaphone had been shouting that Trump appointed judges were impeding the cases and that thanks to the Republicans blocking Obama's appointees that Trump had been able to pack the courts with his cronies.
But instead "we went high", we let coward Merrick Garland slow walk everything, and no one on the Democratic side was so uncooth and mean as to point out that Trump's pet judges were fucking things up for him.
posted by sotonohito at 12:29 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
If probably would have helped a lot if people with a national scale megaphone had been shouting that Trump appointed judges were impeding the cases and that thanks to the Republicans blocking Obama's appointees that Trump had been able to pack the courts with his cronies.
But instead "we went high", we let coward Merrick Garland slow walk everything, and no one on the Democratic side was so uncooth and mean as to point out that Trump's pet judges were fucking things up for him.
posted by sotonohito at 12:29 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
I didn't watch any speeches etc. this year but my general take on Harris is that the Democrats offered the status quo "more of 2023-24" choice to voters.
The GOP could counter on "inflation!", and it apparently worked, even though the inflation of the past 2 years is back to long-term trends
Since aggregate numbers are too hard to understand, here's a simulation of food inflation, the current cost of a Subway foot-long ham sandwich, $12, deflated back over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Ao3w
Is the electorate really that pissed off over the cost of a ham sandwich rising from $11.50 to $12 since 2022?
Here's the true policy failure of the past 4 years:
All Employees, Manufacturing
Democrats didn't move that ball at all, and I think that's causing a lot of dissatisfaction wrt the economy.
posted by torokunai at 12:34 PM on November 11
The GOP could counter on "inflation!", and it apparently worked, even though the inflation of the past 2 years is back to long-term trends
Since aggregate numbers are too hard to understand, here's a simulation of food inflation, the current cost of a Subway foot-long ham sandwich, $12, deflated back over time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Ao3w
Is the electorate really that pissed off over the cost of a ham sandwich rising from $11.50 to $12 since 2022?
Here's the true policy failure of the past 4 years:
All Employees, Manufacturing
Democrats didn't move that ball at all, and I think that's causing a lot of dissatisfaction wrt the economy.
posted by torokunai at 12:34 PM on November 11
Is the electorate really that pissed off over the cost of a ham sandwich rising from $11.50 to $12 since 2022?
At this point, this is just gaslighting.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:37 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
At this point, this is just gaslighting.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:37 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
>But that isn't the country we live in.
90% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats supported our attack on Iraq in 2003.
posted by torokunai at 12:38 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
90% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats supported our attack on Iraq in 2003.
posted by torokunai at 12:38 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
1992 Clinton was a decent southern conservative vs a decent northeastern conservative. Economy sucked, see below.
By all conventional economic metrics, Clinton left the US economy in a much better state than it was in when he started. As did Biden. Which only goes to show that conventional economic success metrics are measuring the wrong things.
posted by flabdablet at 12:42 PM on November 11 [6 favorites]
By all conventional economic metrics, Clinton left the US economy in a much better state than it was in when he started. As did Biden. Which only goes to show that conventional economic success metrics are measuring the wrong things.
posted by flabdablet at 12:42 PM on November 11 [6 favorites]
>At this point, this is just gaslighting.
The official food inflation numbers support that interpolation back to Dec 2022, per that graph. Do you have the actual prices of footlong ham sandwhiches over the past 2 years?
What actual offense are you taking with my above?? I pulled the current $12 price from the franchise near me, and the normal inflation I asserted is consistent with my experience over the past 2 years . . . 2021-22 inflation was indeed signficant, but I suspect our corporate providers have found the consumers' pain points and can't raise prices like those heady days any more.
posted by torokunai at 12:42 PM on November 11
The official food inflation numbers support that interpolation back to Dec 2022, per that graph. Do you have the actual prices of footlong ham sandwhiches over the past 2 years?
What actual offense are you taking with my above?? I pulled the current $12 price from the franchise near me, and the normal inflation I asserted is consistent with my experience over the past 2 years . . . 2021-22 inflation was indeed signficant, but I suspect our corporate providers have found the consumers' pain points and can't raise prices like those heady days any more.
posted by torokunai at 12:42 PM on November 11
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in U.S. City Average (FRED): That big spike at the end is why we're having this conversation about prices.
posted by mittens at 12:42 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by mittens at 12:42 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
Is the electorate really that pissed off over the cost of a ham sandwich rising from $11.50 to $12 since 2022?
As I said in the other thread, it’s not a ham sandwich - which could include less ham - going from 11 to 12 over the last 2 years. It’s about a pound of hamburger going from 2$ to 4-6$ a pound over the last several years, and a pound of chuck steak going from 3-4$ to 8$ a pound. And yes, they are that pissed. I am that pissed. Why the fuck no one seems to care about the rising price of food and is actively sneering at people trying to explain about it is fucking beyond me.
posted by corb at 12:46 PM on November 11 [15 favorites]
As I said in the other thread, it’s not a ham sandwich - which could include less ham - going from 11 to 12 over the last 2 years. It’s about a pound of hamburger going from 2$ to 4-6$ a pound over the last several years, and a pound of chuck steak going from 3-4$ to 8$ a pound. And yes, they are that pissed. I am that pissed. Why the fuck no one seems to care about the rising price of food and is actively sneering at people trying to explain about it is fucking beyond me.
posted by corb at 12:46 PM on November 11 [15 favorites]
A relevant point is that if inflation hadn't been that high from 2020-2022, that post 2022 increase wouldn't have hurt that much. You can't just look at the past two years and say "inflation is nbd, voters are irrationally mad about high prices because of what they read in the media"
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:50 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:50 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
People will be yearning for those numbers once they see what happens when the cost of steep tariffs and mass deportations get priced into the cost of their goods and services.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:51 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 12:51 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
YES WE KNOW THAT TRUMP IS BAD FOR INFLATION AND EVERYTHING BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT VOTERS ARE WRONG TO BE UPSET ABOUT THE MASSIVE INFLATION THAT HAPPENED UNDER BIDEN.
*had to scream it because jfc still?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:52 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
*had to scream it because jfc still?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:52 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
It's FLAT-ish after 2022!
Yes, indicating that the high prices had been locked in. Maybe more importantly, those price increases were more evenly distributed than the income gains from that same period. (Which I guess if we had Gini data to hand for 2023-2024, would be an easier point to make visually.)
posted by mittens at 12:53 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
Yes, indicating that the high prices had been locked in. Maybe more importantly, those price increases were more evenly distributed than the income gains from that same period. (Which I guess if we had Gini data to hand for 2023-2024, would be an easier point to make visually.)
posted by mittens at 12:53 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
>Why the fuck no one seems to care about the rising price of food
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1AofG
log-scale price of food back to the 1950s. It's proper to put this on a log scale to show relative rises, 1970s to now.
In a market economy, goods providers are free to set the prices they want. This means necessities like food, health care, higher education, housing generally enjoy high rents (profit margins) due to lack of competition on the supply side.
The computerization and financialization of our economy has heightened all this of course.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Aohk
compares total personal income vs. food price index since 1970 (=100).
personal income is up 40% since 2020. Producers noticed this and boosted prices in response.
Hence this pretty graph: Corporate Profits After Tax
posted by torokunai at 12:57 PM on November 11
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1AofG
log-scale price of food back to the 1950s. It's proper to put this on a log scale to show relative rises, 1970s to now.
In a market economy, goods providers are free to set the prices they want. This means necessities like food, health care, higher education, housing generally enjoy high rents (profit margins) due to lack of competition on the supply side.
The computerization and financialization of our economy has heightened all this of course.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Aohk
compares total personal income vs. food price index since 1970 (=100).
personal income is up 40% since 2020. Producers noticed this and boosted prices in response.
Hence this pretty graph: Corporate Profits After Tax
posted by torokunai at 12:57 PM on November 11
And, it doesn't have to be either/or on "inflation is real" vs. "inflation was created by the media" Some inflation did occur, and to some extent it had to happen on some scale in order to fund the recovery from the pandemic, which the US weathered much better than most of its peers. That inflation was painful in ways that could have been less painful with more robust/targeted policy interventions, but how many of those interventions could have gotten passed when one of the parties was determined to not pass any laws that would help the economy, and therefore help the acting President? That's harder to say. Still, let's all agree that inflation was bad and hurt many people. That does not negate the existence of a diseased media ecosystem that was determined to take bad data points and make them worse, leading to the very strange situation where most of America says the economy is good for them but bad for everyone else. It wasn't entirely a "vibescession", but vibes were certainly part of it.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:59 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 12:59 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
That increase isn't exactly evenly distributed across the country or across the class spectrum, though. Lots of people have been left behind, and they haven't been spared the price increases.
posted by pattern juggler at 1:05 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 1:05 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
So Harris doesn’t get to be president. Isn’t her husband a millionaire? She’s gonna be just fine, absolutely fine.
So now what and what’s next for the rest of us?
posted by girlmightlive at 1:06 PM on November 11
So now what and what’s next for the rest of us?
posted by girlmightlive at 1:06 PM on November 11
SNAP benefits are $800 per taxpayer now. Seems like a good cut for the GOP to help with food costs.
Fewer food consumers, lower prices! You want lower food prices, right?
Right?
posted by torokunai at 1:08 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Fewer food consumers, lower prices! You want lower food prices, right?
Right?
posted by torokunai at 1:08 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
This means necessities like food, health care, higher education, housing generally enjoy high rents (profit margins) due to lack of competition on the supply side.
There's not a lot of competition for food and groceries?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 1:09 PM on November 11
There's not a lot of competition for food and groceries?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 1:09 PM on November 11
>So now what and what’s next for the rest of us?
Prediction?
Seriously, I don't have any idea, it really depends on what the new GOP trifecta tries to do.
Round up millions of undocumented immigrants? Expanded federal law enforcement to put down riots in "Sanctuary Cities"?
First-time hombuyer rate program to get rates down to 3% again to make homes less unaffordable? Tax cuts for everybody? 5%, 10%, 15% graduated flat tax?
They've got the controls now and we're just passengers.
posted by torokunai at 1:12 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Prediction?
Seriously, I don't have any idea, it really depends on what the new GOP trifecta tries to do.
Round up millions of undocumented immigrants? Expanded federal law enforcement to put down riots in "Sanctuary Cities"?
First-time hombuyer rate program to get rates down to 3% again to make homes less unaffordable? Tax cuts for everybody? 5%, 10%, 15% graduated flat tax?
They've got the controls now and we're just passengers.
posted by torokunai at 1:12 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
>There's not a lot of competition for food and groceries?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/jul/14/food-monopoly-meals-profits-data-investigation
Easy to import cars to the US, not so easy to import finished food products.
Not sure how McD's income is sourced (i.e. franchise vs not) but they made $10B in pretax profit on $25B in sales last year. "Inflation" was very very good for it!
posted by torokunai at 1:18 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/jul/14/food-monopoly-meals-profits-data-investigation
Easy to import cars to the US, not so easy to import finished food products.
Not sure how McD's income is sourced (i.e. franchise vs not) but they made $10B in pretax profit on $25B in sales last year. "Inflation" was very very good for it!
posted by torokunai at 1:18 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
SNAP benefits are $800 per taxpayer now.
People don't stop eating just because Joe Biden allowed their SNAP benefits to be cut.
(ETA to clarify my point: While hunger increases with SNAP benefits cut, they don't simply stop existing as consumers, so your point does not make sense.)
posted by mittens at 1:19 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
People don't stop eating just because Joe Biden allowed their SNAP benefits to be cut.
(ETA to clarify my point: While hunger increases with SNAP benefits cut, they don't simply stop existing as consumers, so your point does not make sense.)
posted by mittens at 1:19 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
On another alternate tip but of interest in regards to the ever unfolding implications in regards to the current ongoing seismic shift in our common circumstances--
NASA chief says talks between Elon Musk, Vladimir Putin would be 'concerning'posted by y2karl at 1:21 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Again, what are the plans for 2028?
IDGAF about the Democratic party. Election's done. I want to not be in a fucking cage or worse. Fuck worrying about slightly increased prices for a couple years. I'm also less interested in hammering home the same points a lot of white people want to gleefully skip right on by so they can try to dunk (even though they don't ball) on someone they'd share a cage with. So who is it? Who's a person you're currently aware of? I am fine with AOC but I get the feeling a lot of people here would balk. So who's the candidate or party that we're all going to support in 2028?
We better start getting our shit together and come up with a plan. It's getting dark and those things mostly come at night. Mostly.
posted by cashman at 1:21 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
IDGAF about the Democratic party. Election's done. I want to not be in a fucking cage or worse. Fuck worrying about slightly increased prices for a couple years. I'm also less interested in hammering home the same points a lot of white people want to gleefully skip right on by so they can try to dunk (even though they don't ball) on someone they'd share a cage with. So who is it? Who's a person you're currently aware of? I am fine with AOC but I get the feeling a lot of people here would balk. So who's the candidate or party that we're all going to support in 2028?
We better start getting our shit together and come up with a plan. It's getting dark and those things mostly come at night. Mostly.
posted by cashman at 1:21 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
>Joe Biden
https://thefga.org/research/feeding-inflation-bidens-unlawful-food-stamp-expansion/
posted by torokunai at 1:21 PM on November 11
https://thefga.org/research/feeding-inflation-bidens-unlawful-food-stamp-expansion/
posted by torokunai at 1:21 PM on November 11
Id rather not cite conservative think tank psuedoresearch here.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 1:23 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 1:23 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
https://thefga.org/research/feeding-inflation-bidens-unlawful-food-stamp-expansion/
No.
posted by mittens at 1:24 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
No.
posted by mittens at 1:24 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
>So who's the candidate or party that we're all going to support in 2028?
Justin Bieber Taylor Swift
posted by torokunai at 1:25 PM on November 11
posted by torokunai at 1:25 PM on November 11
the last couple of years, they didn't kick you as hard
why are you complaining?
posted by pyramid termite at 1:30 PM on November 11
why are you complaining?
posted by pyramid termite at 1:30 PM on November 11
> Are you suggesting that people wanting reduced prices automatically means they want benefit cuts?
I'd like 10,000 things from the current administration. My choice on who to lead the executive branch was between Harris and Trump though, so my vote was locked for Harris when Trump won the nomination.
That's the way this thing works.
posted by torokunai at 1:44 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
I'd like 10,000 things from the current administration. My choice on who to lead the executive branch was between Harris and Trump though, so my vote was locked for Harris when Trump won the nomination.
That's the way this thing works.
posted by torokunai at 1:44 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Philly Inquirer today (November 11, 2024): Democrats kept calling Trump a fascist, but these Pennsylvania voters thought he could help them pay the bills
“The American public has heard for so long that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy that it’s like when you put a Post-it on your desk and you’re like, ‘I have to remember this,’ but your eye glazes over it,” Dagnes said. “We’ve been overwhelmed by Trump content, so when he is literally fellating a microphone, people are like, shrug.”posted by cashman at 1:48 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
At rallies over the last year in Pennsylvania, a lot of Trump supporters said they take him seriously — but not literally. The campaign helped soften his image by putting him in roles where he looked nonthreatening, like “working” the fryer at a Bucks County McDonald’s. Even his own gaffes, like dancing on stage for 30 minutes or struggling to open the door to a garbage truck, bolstered the view for a lot of voters that he was harmless. Voters can also look back on his first term and argue democracy didn’t end then.
“It’s not hard to understand why voters reject the premise,” Pennsylvania GOP consultant Brock McCleary said. “The fair-minded voter looks at Trump’s first term and concludes that he’s either really bad at instituting fascism, or it’s just another empty moniker from Trump’s powerful enemies.”
In Scranton on Wednesday, Matt Wolfson, a 45-year-old former construction worker, looked around at poverty in the Rust Belt city and thought the nation needed a change in leadership.
Wolfson said he didn’t love the dictatorial aspect of Trump’s personality, but thought it could help keep the country out of wars and maybe bring peace to some other conflicts, including in Ukraine.
“He’s good and bad. People say he’s a dictator. I believe that. I consider him like Hitler,” Wolfson said. “But I voted for the man.”
That increase isn't exactly evenly distributed across the country or across the class spectrum, though.
Correct, wage inequality went down.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:53 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
Correct, wage inequality went down.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:53 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
>That increase isn't exactly evenly distributed across the country or across the class spectrum, though.
This is a very good counterpoint and apologies for not acknowledging it.
FRED data isn't broken out by quintile, and it should be. Though their AHETPI number should be very accurate.
posted by torokunai at 1:55 PM on November 11
This is a very good counterpoint and apologies for not acknowledging it.
FRED data isn't broken out by quintile, and it should be. Though their AHETPI number should be very accurate.
posted by torokunai at 1:55 PM on November 11
if the prosecutions had started back in 2020 there would have been a LOT more time for people to be decrying the Republican, Trump appointed, Judges helping Trump escape his crimes.
How much more yelling about this could possibly help? Voters forgot that Donald Trump is responsible for Roe being overturned. The prosecution in Florida sank without trace after it was deep-sixed by a MAGA judge. The Jan 6th case is on its last legs because of the MAGA SCOTUS. If that had all happened in 2022 instead it would have passed even further out of memory.
posted by BungaDunga at 2:01 PM on November 11 [6 favorites]
How much more yelling about this could possibly help? Voters forgot that Donald Trump is responsible for Roe being overturned. The prosecution in Florida sank without trace after it was deep-sixed by a MAGA judge. The Jan 6th case is on its last legs because of the MAGA SCOTUS. If that had all happened in 2022 instead it would have passed even further out of memory.
posted by BungaDunga at 2:01 PM on November 11 [6 favorites]
most people see Trump not going to prison and assume that means his crimes weren't real. they were never going to be convinced that it was due to corrupt and biased judges, and after all, judges are the law experts so maybe the Democrats are just whining, the same way Trump does when he doesn't get his way, the scamp
posted by BungaDunga at 2:06 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 2:06 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
Watching yt, this guy came up talking about the macro and mentioned this . . .
Table A-2, Real Median Household Incomes, Census Bureau (html)
2023 $80,610
2022 $77,540
2021 $79,260
2020 $79,560
2019 $81,210
2018 $75,790
2017 $74,810
So here we see the 2020-21 health crisis knocked us back ~2 years, then the 2022 inflation hit us again, but "we" recovered nearly all of that in 2023.
("we" being the median. half of the country is below the median and these are the most desperate households, more willing to pull the lever for fascism, or sit out the election as a f-u to the System, or 'let's see where this tax cuts / trade war / anti-immigrant stuff gets us')
Key thing here tho is 'inflation' includes something called "Owners Equivalent Rent" which is not something anybody who owns their home actually pays per se.
Renters indeed got shafted these past few years, and lowering rents or making housing more available/"affordable" has not ever been a national policy priority.
posted by torokunai at 2:39 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Table A-2, Real Median Household Incomes, Census Bureau (html)
2023 $80,610
2022 $77,540
2021 $79,260
2020 $79,560
2019 $81,210
2018 $75,790
2017 $74,810
So here we see the 2020-21 health crisis knocked us back ~2 years, then the 2022 inflation hit us again, but "we" recovered nearly all of that in 2023.
("we" being the median. half of the country is below the median and these are the most desperate households, more willing to pull the lever for fascism, or sit out the election as a f-u to the System, or 'let's see where this tax cuts / trade war / anti-immigrant stuff gets us')
Key thing here tho is 'inflation' includes something called "Owners Equivalent Rent" which is not something anybody who owns their home actually pays per se.
Renters indeed got shafted these past few years, and lowering rents or making housing more available/"affordable" has not ever been a national policy priority.
posted by torokunai at 2:39 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
"we" recovered nearly all of that in 2023.
This is a good find. It's interesting to see that "we" broken out by race. Like, you kind of know going in what that graph is going to look like, but thinking about it compared with voting demographics is...well...it deserves some further thinking about. (Just so I'm not being oblique here: Black incomes increased the least, Asian incomes increased the most, both of which groups voted in swing states more heavily for Harris than Trump.)
posted by mittens at 3:00 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
This is a good find. It's interesting to see that "we" broken out by race. Like, you kind of know going in what that graph is going to look like, but thinking about it compared with voting demographics is...well...it deserves some further thinking about. (Just so I'm not being oblique here: Black incomes increased the least, Asian incomes increased the most, both of which groups voted in swing states more heavily for Harris than Trump.)
posted by mittens at 3:00 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
wage inequality went down.
Wage inequality is not anywhere near as consequential as wealth inequality. Show me that going down anywhere in the Anglosphere and I'll stop banging on about it. Show me that going down anywhere in the world and ask yourself what they're doing that we're not.
posted by flabdablet at 3:06 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
Wage inequality is not anywhere near as consequential as wealth inequality. Show me that going down anywhere in the Anglosphere and I'll stop banging on about it. Show me that going down anywhere in the world and ask yourself what they're doing that we're not.
posted by flabdablet at 3:06 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
I don't subscribe to the Green Lantern theory of politics, to get good government we need a good House and Senate.
Questioning the validity of the Green Lantern President theory is so last season. The Red Lantern President is real, and he is not our friend.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:07 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Questioning the validity of the Green Lantern President theory is so last season. The Red Lantern President is real, and he is not our friend.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:07 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Finally I can hit "Post Comment" on this!*
Metafilter: If you make a bad faith argument here, expect pushback.
*(to be honest, I just forgot I had this up . . .)
posted by pt68 at 3:09 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Metafilter: If you make a bad faith argument here, expect pushback.
*(to be honest, I just forgot I had this up . . .)
posted by pt68 at 3:09 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
Not sure how McD's income is sourced (i.e. franchise vs not) but they made $10B in pretax profit on $25B in sales last year. "Inflation" was very very good for it!
McDonald's is actually one of the more interesting cases. Their menu pricing skyrocketed in '22-'23. However, that does not tell the whole story. They are engaged in one of the biggest price discrimination campaigns I've seen outside of the airlines.
You don't have to pay menu price. It's easy not to pay it. Indeed, it's easier to get a discount 20% off coupons, free items, all kinds of promos are easily available if you actually care about the price.
Similar things are going on at fast casual restaurants. Menu prices have gone up a lot, but there are a lot more promos that bring it back down to a reasonable level.
Grocery is the same way, too, at least for packaged food. Manufacturers jacked up their top line pricing, but increased availability and dollar amount of coupons. As annoying as Kroger is in many ways, their website makes it stupid easy to keep your cost down by showing applicable coupons directly on item lists. Click a button and suddenly the thing is 20% cheaper.
If my rent hadn't gone up so much (though I did just sign a renewal with no increase for the first time since 2020!), I'd be sitting here wondering why everybody is so worked up. It's not like you have to clip and keep track of paper coupons any more. 5-10 minutes once a week saves me the equivalent of an hour of pay at least.
posted by wierdo at 4:11 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
McDonald's is actually one of the more interesting cases. Their menu pricing skyrocketed in '22-'23. However, that does not tell the whole story. They are engaged in one of the biggest price discrimination campaigns I've seen outside of the airlines.
You don't have to pay menu price. It's easy not to pay it. Indeed, it's easier to get a discount 20% off coupons, free items, all kinds of promos are easily available if you actually care about the price.
Similar things are going on at fast casual restaurants. Menu prices have gone up a lot, but there are a lot more promos that bring it back down to a reasonable level.
Grocery is the same way, too, at least for packaged food. Manufacturers jacked up their top line pricing, but increased availability and dollar amount of coupons. As annoying as Kroger is in many ways, their website makes it stupid easy to keep your cost down by showing applicable coupons directly on item lists. Click a button and suddenly the thing is 20% cheaper.
If my rent hadn't gone up so much (though I did just sign a renewal with no increase for the first time since 2020!), I'd be sitting here wondering why everybody is so worked up. It's not like you have to clip and keep track of paper coupons any more. 5-10 minutes once a week saves me the equivalent of an hour of pay at least.
posted by wierdo at 4:11 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Probably a good idea to not accuse people who voted for Harris to be responsible for Trump winning
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:12 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:12 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
Wage inequality is not anywhere near as consequential as wealth inequality. Show me that going down anywhere in the Anglosphere and I'll stop banging on about it. Show me that going down anywhere in the world and ask yourself what they're doing that we're not.
I agree- it's much more important, especially when it comes to the way it's completely distorted our political system. But I'm not sure people feel the difference as much day-to-day, eg I didn't realize how much the combined wealth of billionaires had increased over the last few decades (it's a lot). Policies to fix this would be at the top of my list, I liked Warren's wealth tax and Harris' capital gains hikes. But I'm not sure Americans have really turned against billionaires considering who they just voted for.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:15 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
I agree- it's much more important, especially when it comes to the way it's completely distorted our political system. But I'm not sure people feel the difference as much day-to-day, eg I didn't realize how much the combined wealth of billionaires had increased over the last few decades (it's a lot). Policies to fix this would be at the top of my list, I liked Warren's wealth tax and Harris' capital gains hikes. But I'm not sure Americans have really turned against billionaires considering who they just voted for.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:15 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
"Harris is complicit in genocide" is a completely fair opinion to have. There's a genocide, she backed Biden's policies, his policies include sending arms to Israel and refusing to apply the Leahy law. It's pretty straightforward.
If someone thinks that counts as complicity in crimes against humanity that's a totally justifiable opinion to have.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:26 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
If someone thinks that counts as complicity in crimes against humanity that's a totally justifiable opinion to have.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:26 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
I know we're all having a straight up bad time, but what if we didn't accuse people of being brainwashed by Russia? I feel like most of the people in this thread sound like folks who are not terribly susceptible to the wares of Putin's Dank Meme Farms or whatever. Seriously, you should like some kind of centrist Dale from King of the Hill. Just please listen to yourself, good lord.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:28 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:28 PM on November 11 [8 favorites]
She probably didn't break any American laws doing so, but that doesn't mean it's not a crime.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:29 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 4:29 PM on November 11 [2 favorites]
...she supported giving weapons...
This is not a crime. Stop alluding to crimes unless there is some actual crime you can accuse her of. Otherwise knock it off.
posted by VTX at 4:45 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
This is not a crime. Stop alluding to crimes unless there is some actual crime you can accuse her of. Otherwise knock it off.
posted by VTX at 4:45 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Ironically, diffusion of responsibility is one of the big ways in which evil things are done in our name. Our standard for what counts as clean hands is high enough that it allows those who are personally engaged in doing harm to fob off much of the responsibility to "the establishment" or "the blob" or whatever other appellation is more to your liking.
posted by wierdo at 4:46 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 4:46 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
The Biden administration intentionally frustrated the application of the Leahy law.
These sorts of crimes are the kind that were dealt with at Nuremberg; lots of things are legal but still crimes against humanity.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:50 PM on November 11 [13 favorites]
These sorts of crimes are the kind that were dealt with at Nuremberg; lots of things are legal but still crimes against humanity.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:50 PM on November 11 [13 favorites]
Complicity in genocide is absolutely a crime.
posted by pattern juggler at 4:51 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]
posted by pattern juggler at 4:51 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]
The thing about crimes against humanity is that you can commit them without breaking the law. "It wasn't against the law" didn't work as a defense at Nuremberg.
To be clear, I think Americans generally are a little complicit too. This isn't something I'm leveling at Harris because I don't like her; I want to like her. She's appealing to me in a lot of ways. I voted for her and I spent months arguing with people to vote for her. I almost wish I believed that this is what doomed her campaign, but I don't.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:54 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
To be clear, I think Americans generally are a little complicit too. This isn't something I'm leveling at Harris because I don't like her; I want to like her. She's appealing to me in a lot of ways. I voted for her and I spent months arguing with people to vote for her. I almost wish I believed that this is what doomed her campaign, but I don't.
posted by BungaDunga at 4:54 PM on November 11 [9 favorites]
like, to a first approximation, the Leahy law is supposed to encode some of America's obligations under international law into domestic law, and Biden intentionally avoided actually abiding by them. Is that something an American court can put him away for? No, it's not unlawful. That doesn't mean it's not against international law, that doesn't mean it's not complicity with a crime against humanity.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:03 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 5:03 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]
Harris isn't nearly as responsible as Biden, but if you're the Vice President of the United States, you don't get to shrug off the policy, especially one that you seem to agree with.
posted by BungaDunga at 5:14 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 5:14 PM on November 11 [10 favorites]
To be fair, this is a scary time. I think a lot of people have been engaged in denial over the possibility of Trump winning. Now that they have to face it, there is a tendency to catastrophize.
People deal with the fear and anger in a lot of different ways. Some are healthier than others. I have not exactly handled it with a great deal of grace myself, and I was expecting this outcome.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:27 PM on November 11 [7 favorites]
People deal with the fear and anger in a lot of different ways. Some are healthier than others. I have not exactly handled it with a great deal of grace myself, and I was expecting this outcome.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:27 PM on November 11 [7 favorites]
It's going to be nothing but useless derails for the rest of the thread now isn't it?
posted by VTX at 5:28 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
posted by VTX at 5:28 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
You are a troll and you are enjoying this.
This is Metafilter, we don't enjoy things here.
Seriously, I don't hate you or anything like that. I have just gotten very tired of the reflexive liberal response to punch left when things don't go their way. I was harsher than I should have been, because this has been a pretty shitty time on a lot of fronts. I'm sorry I took it out on you.
I genuinely hope you are okay.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:45 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
This is Metafilter, we don't enjoy things here.
Seriously, I don't hate you or anything like that. I have just gotten very tired of the reflexive liberal response to punch left when things don't go their way. I was harsher than I should have been, because this has been a pretty shitty time on a lot of fronts. I'm sorry I took it out on you.
I genuinely hope you are okay.
posted by pattern juggler at 5:45 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
It's going to be nothing but useless derails for the rest of the thread now isn't it?
No, there's still SO MUCH to worry over! Apologies that this is a NY Post link: RFK Jr. suggests 600 people from the National Institutes of Health will be fired on day one of Trump’s second term.
posted by mittens at 5:51 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
No, there's still SO MUCH to worry over! Apologies that this is a NY Post link: RFK Jr. suggests 600 people from the National Institutes of Health will be fired on day one of Trump’s second term.
posted by mittens at 5:51 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
In case you were wondering how the Ukraine war would go under Trump, here's Mike Waltz, his national security advisor pick: "And first and foremost, you would enforce the actual energy sanctions on Russia. [...] So I think that will get Putin to the table." (See, you thought we'd just give Ukraine away! But not when there's a deal to be made!)
posted by mittens at 6:05 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
posted by mittens at 6:05 PM on November 11 [5 favorites]
Appreciate you Mittens. Thanks, I hate it!
posted by VTX at 6:25 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
posted by VTX at 6:25 PM on November 11 [1 favorite]
All Bets Are Off (bold mine)
The current prevailing theory about Trump’s victory is that most Americans, irked by an unpleasant encounter with inflation, cast an anti-incumbent vote without giving much thought to the consequences of that vote for US democracy. I don’t totally buy this whoops! theory. My sense is that, in this era of the Internet, there are millions more fascists in this country than people think, young men in particular. And I believe that many more millions are fascinated by Trump not for his supposed business prowess but for his transparent wish to hurt others. He is an evil guy, a villain—and many Americans are excited by it. Harris and the Democrats, by contrast, are boring, boring, boring. In this sense, the election was like a choice between four more years of church or four years of violent entertainment. Nihilistic consumerism, as much as authoritarianism, prevailed. Of course, political science is not designed to investigate this kind of stuff. The clearest insights we have come from the realm of philosophy and literature. Hannah Arendt and Primo Levi did not rely on focus groups.posted by non canadian guy at 6:28 PM on November 11 [22 favorites]
‘Your body, my choice’: Attacks on women surge on social media following election (CNN)
posted by Brian B. at 6:47 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 6:47 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Imagine it being 2 months before a fascist regime takes over and the supposed resistance is fighting amongst each other like some idiots.
Trump is going to be president and not only is he going to give Bibi the neon green light, he's going to start wrecking our whole fucking country some of us (all of us) have spent time making habitable.
Can yall stop fucking arguing and help think up something productive we can do?
posted by cashman at 7:48 PM on November 11 [7 favorites]
Trump is going to be president and not only is he going to give Bibi the neon green light, he's going to start wrecking our whole fucking country some of us (all of us) have spent time making habitable.
Can yall stop fucking arguing and help think up something productive we can do?
posted by cashman at 7:48 PM on November 11 [7 favorites]
Per Cashman's comment, anyone in this thread who has an interest in supporting Palestinian causes in the U.S. should take action now. Contact your House member and ask them to vote "no" on H.R. 9495. It only needs enough no votes to fall below the 2/3rd threshhold. A simple, free action to help prevent a crackdown on dissent.
Per the ACLU, This bill (H.R. 9495) gives the executive branch the authority to effectively dismantle any nonprofit organization it deems to have provided "material support" to terrorist groups and the potential for abuse under this law is staggering.
posted by JDC8 at 7:51 PM on November 11 [11 favorites]
Per the ACLU, This bill (H.R. 9495) gives the executive branch the authority to effectively dismantle any nonprofit organization it deems to have provided "material support" to terrorist groups and the potential for abuse under this law is staggering.
posted by JDC8 at 7:51 PM on November 11 [11 favorites]
Can yall stop fucking arguing and help think up something productive we can do?
There are AskMe and MetaTalk threads starting up. Be the change you seek, and contribute to them.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:58 PM on November 11 [7 favorites]
There are AskMe and MetaTalk threads starting up. Be the change you seek, and contribute to them.
posted by ginger.beef at 7:58 PM on November 11 [7 favorites]
Contact your House member and ask them to vote "no" on H.R. 9495. It only needs enough no votes to fall below the 2/3rd threshhold. A simple, free action to help prevent a crackdown on dissent.
Done, thank you.
posted by cashman at 8:05 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
Done, thank you.
posted by cashman at 8:05 PM on November 11 [3 favorites]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1AsgH
I got sucked into a Facebook post for the first time and found this FRED graph I made for it had a lot of explanatory power.
Blue is annual wage rises, red is annual CPI.
Carter? Reagan 1980? Clinton 1992? Obama 2008? Trump 2024? There's your answer.
posted by torokunai at 8:28 PM on November 11
I got sucked into a Facebook post for the first time and found this FRED graph I made for it had a lot of explanatory power.
Blue is annual wage rises, red is annual CPI.
Carter? Reagan 1980? Clinton 1992? Obama 2008? Trump 2024? There's your answer.
posted by torokunai at 8:28 PM on November 11
Yes, there was some amount of unfortunate timing with the election. If we had had a few more months or a year of wage growth exceeding inflation and had the time for the price expectations in people's heads to catch up to the new reality there is a chance things might have gone differently.
Well, that's if you buy the argument that "it's the economy, stupid." In this case, I don't really. Shitty feelings about the economy would explain growth in support for Trump, but that's not really what happened. The anti-Trump folks just stayed home.
Unfortunately, I think they're going to be very surprised by this time next year by how much more effective Trump's new administration is at implementing the xenophobic and christofascist agendas that the people he is hiring are so gung ho about.
It's looking more and more like Trump would have to actively interfere to keep shit in check, unlike last time where he had to actively interfere to make the bad things happen.
posted by wierdo at 9:13 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
Well, that's if you buy the argument that "it's the economy, stupid." In this case, I don't really. Shitty feelings about the economy would explain growth in support for Trump, but that's not really what happened. The anti-Trump folks just stayed home.
Unfortunately, I think they're going to be very surprised by this time next year by how much more effective Trump's new administration is at implementing the xenophobic and christofascist agendas that the people he is hiring are so gung ho about.
It's looking more and more like Trump would have to actively interfere to keep shit in check, unlike last time where he had to actively interfere to make the bad things happen.
posted by wierdo at 9:13 PM on November 11 [4 favorites]
yeah "Project 2025" was a gift to run against but it just bounced off. What % of the population understands what the Heritage Foundation (and Federalist Society) are??
The election was close tho . . . Just WI, MI, and PA basically, all ~50%-50% so winning one more swing voter out of 50 in these states would have had it go the other way.
Biden's "the only garbage I see is his supporters[']" remark might have done it . . .
https://apnews.com/article/biden-garbage-transcript-puerto-rico-trump-326e2f516a94a470a423011a946b6252
posted by torokunai at 9:47 PM on November 11
The election was close tho . . . Just WI, MI, and PA basically, all ~50%-50% so winning one more swing voter out of 50 in these states would have had it go the other way.
Biden's "the only garbage I see is his supporters[']" remark might have done it . . .
https://apnews.com/article/biden-garbage-transcript-puerto-rico-trump-326e2f516a94a470a423011a946b6252
posted by torokunai at 9:47 PM on November 11
I do wonder what's going to happen with our fiscal situation:
Federal Surplus or Deficit
$2T/yr ain't no joke and the debt is piling up...
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product shows both Reagan and Bush in 2001 inherited a fiscal situation that wasn't entirely out of control like it is now.
Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments has doubled since COVID, to over $1T/yr. Another $1T/yr trade deficit in goods is nothing to write home about, either.
Congress has been writing a lot of checks 2001- and it's time they start putting money in the bank to fund them. 2020-23 was a pretty solid refutation of "MMT" AFAICT.
posted by torokunai at 10:21 PM on November 11
Federal Surplus or Deficit
$2T/yr ain't no joke and the debt is piling up...
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product shows both Reagan and Bush in 2001 inherited a fiscal situation that wasn't entirely out of control like it is now.
Federal government current expenditures: Interest payments has doubled since COVID, to over $1T/yr. Another $1T/yr trade deficit in goods is nothing to write home about, either.
Congress has been writing a lot of checks 2001- and it's time they start putting money in the bank to fund them. 2020-23 was a pretty solid refutation of "MMT" AFAICT.
posted by torokunai at 10:21 PM on November 11
Mod note: Many comments deleted. Specifically, if you are here to fight with other people, make it personal, throw accusations back and forth, please stop. If you are dominating the thread by flooding with comments, please stop. If you haven't been able to make your point with 60+ comments, it's not going to happen. Pattern Juggler and They sucked his brains out!, you need to stop the personal fighting. Pattern Juggler, please dial back the commenting in general. They sucked his brains out, you need to find a different way to vent your frustration. Everyone, don't attack other users, don't take up all the air in this space to accuse other members and rehash the same points you've already made over and over. I'm just going to be deleting comments that are about fighting with other members rather than discussing the news. Please regulate yourselves, because experience has shown that even 24/7 moderation cannot handle this kind of engagement, and we are far from that sort of coverage now. Make this a useful place to be, because we need useful spaces and we don't need a community destroyed by infighting. Sincerely, thank you to all helping Metafilter to be an informative, thoughtful, and valuable resource.
posted by taz (staff) at 1:08 AM on November 12 [31 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 1:08 AM on November 12 [31 favorites]
It's less a refutation of the underlying thesis of MMT and more proof of its impracticality. I cannot imagine a world in which US politicians raise taxes in the face of excessive inflation. It's just unrealistic politically.
There's no reason to think that there's any difference at all between draining money from the economy using interest rates or doing it with taxes, though. (Or conversely adding money with government spending vs encouraging lending with low interest rates)
What the last 15 years have been, though, is a shining example of how economically disconnected the wealthy are from the rest of us. Despite the absurd amount of money, even by the standards of the wealthy, sloshing around in their bank accounts, inflation was basically non-existent for a decade, but only if you look at stuff that us normies buy. Veblen goods got bid up to a shocking degree. Exotic cars being one of the most obvious, where many saw 10x increases in value. Lots of cool cars went from "maybe if I work hard and get a bit lucky I can someday own one of those" to "only if I hit the jackpot in the lottery."
Then, as soon as we started dumping a bunch of money into normal people's bank accounts, both through direct payments and general wage increases during and after the pandemic, we suddenly started having inflation that us normies actually noticed. (The problem with this view is untangling how much inflation was driven by supply and how much by demand. It remains unclear, probably because it was both)
Point being that MMT has as much explanatory value here as other economic theories. Personally, I have come to the view that they're all very limited in that they all break down in at least some reasonably foreseeable economic scenarios. Which is best in any given situation depends entirely on the current conditions. And if one or the other has good explanatory power for any given situation, it's still just a starting point. You can't do the technocratic policy wonk thing and say "theory says we have to do x" without considering other factors.
posted by wierdo at 1:13 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
There's no reason to think that there's any difference at all between draining money from the economy using interest rates or doing it with taxes, though. (Or conversely adding money with government spending vs encouraging lending with low interest rates)
What the last 15 years have been, though, is a shining example of how economically disconnected the wealthy are from the rest of us. Despite the absurd amount of money, even by the standards of the wealthy, sloshing around in their bank accounts, inflation was basically non-existent for a decade, but only if you look at stuff that us normies buy. Veblen goods got bid up to a shocking degree. Exotic cars being one of the most obvious, where many saw 10x increases in value. Lots of cool cars went from "maybe if I work hard and get a bit lucky I can someday own one of those" to "only if I hit the jackpot in the lottery."
Then, as soon as we started dumping a bunch of money into normal people's bank accounts, both through direct payments and general wage increases during and after the pandemic, we suddenly started having inflation that us normies actually noticed. (The problem with this view is untangling how much inflation was driven by supply and how much by demand. It remains unclear, probably because it was both)
Point being that MMT has as much explanatory value here as other economic theories. Personally, I have come to the view that they're all very limited in that they all break down in at least some reasonably foreseeable economic scenarios. Which is best in any given situation depends entirely on the current conditions. And if one or the other has good explanatory power for any given situation, it's still just a starting point. You can't do the technocratic policy wonk thing and say "theory says we have to do x" without considering other factors.
posted by wierdo at 1:13 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
In case you were wondering how the Ukraine war would go under Trump, here's Mike Waltz, his national security advisor pick
In that interview, Waltz hypothetically asks: "And if you kind of take it in context, I mean, would it have been OK if Hitler were assassinated back in the 1930s?"
What, if one of the thirteen documented attempts on Hitler's life in the 1930s before the start of the war had succeeded? What kind of thought experiment is that? Was Beppo Römer one of history's villains? Or was it the easy-going bunch who executed him?
But it's true, nobody can predict the future with 100% accuracy, which is why prosecution and jail time were what was needed.
Even when we 100% know how things turned out, there's no going back, even though everybody kills Hitler on their first trip.
posted by rory at 2:44 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
In that interview, Waltz hypothetically asks: "And if you kind of take it in context, I mean, would it have been OK if Hitler were assassinated back in the 1930s?"
What, if one of the thirteen documented attempts on Hitler's life in the 1930s before the start of the war had succeeded? What kind of thought experiment is that? Was Beppo Römer one of history's villains? Or was it the easy-going bunch who executed him?
But it's true, nobody can predict the future with 100% accuracy, which is why prosecution and jail time were what was needed.
Even when we 100% know how things turned out, there's no going back, even though everybody kills Hitler on their first trip.
posted by rory at 2:44 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
I do wonder what's going to happen with our fiscal situation:
Trump doesn't mind being hated by liberals...but if he brings in a traditional austerity program on top of high prices, he's going to find everyone hating him. Nobody's going to listen to him talk about fiscal responsibility--I'm not even sure he could utter the usual "time to tighten our belts" thing governments give us.
Am I wrong to think what he'll try to do is lower interest rates and inflate away the deficit? Which people will also hate? He can't cut costs--even if you get rid of a government department or two, you're not saving that much. He can't raise taxes. (Well, he could--at this point, only a Republican could without massive outcry.) (But chances are he won't.)
What's left?
posted by mittens at 4:21 AM on November 12
Trump doesn't mind being hated by liberals...but if he brings in a traditional austerity program on top of high prices, he's going to find everyone hating him. Nobody's going to listen to him talk about fiscal responsibility--I'm not even sure he could utter the usual "time to tighten our belts" thing governments give us.
Am I wrong to think what he'll try to do is lower interest rates and inflate away the deficit? Which people will also hate? He can't cut costs--even if you get rid of a government department or two, you're not saving that much. He can't raise taxes. (Well, he could--at this point, only a Republican could without massive outcry.) (But chances are he won't.)
What's left?
posted by mittens at 4:21 AM on November 12
Using the well established media arm at the 75 million voters he gets each round to blame various groups political and ethnic for the failures of his monetary policies?
posted by Slackermagee at 4:45 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 4:45 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
What are the practical effects of abolishing the department of education?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:46 AM on November 12
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:46 AM on November 12
.....is a question that one might make an attempt to answer for oneself before loudly proclaiming the utter equivalency of the two parties at every opportunity.
Inside Higher Ed.: Republicans Could Abolish the Education Department. How Might That Work?
TL;DR: most likely to impact underprivileged students most directly by undermining practical availability of loans and subsidies.
“You could very well end up in a system where college access is blocked off for students who have financial need, and that really would reverse the progress that’s been made over the past decade to create a system that had more open pathways into higher education for anybody who wants them,” said Michelle Dimino, education program director at Third Way, a left-of-center think tank. “That is full-stop terrifying. I think the uncertainty alone would be a detriment to college access.”
Sounds about right.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:06 AM on November 12 [9 favorites]
Inside Higher Ed.: Republicans Could Abolish the Education Department. How Might That Work?
TL;DR: most likely to impact underprivileged students most directly by undermining practical availability of loans and subsidies.
“You could very well end up in a system where college access is blocked off for students who have financial need, and that really would reverse the progress that’s been made over the past decade to create a system that had more open pathways into higher education for anybody who wants them,” said Michelle Dimino, education program director at Third Way, a left-of-center think tank. “That is full-stop terrifying. I think the uncertainty alone would be a detriment to college access.”
Sounds about right.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:06 AM on November 12 [9 favorites]
What are the practical effects of abolishing the department of education?
On a long enough timeline, you have a bunch of dirty little kids Max has to lead beyond Thunderdome, is my understanding.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:28 AM on November 12 [14 favorites]
On a long enough timeline, you have a bunch of dirty little kids Max has to lead beyond Thunderdome, is my understanding.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:28 AM on November 12 [14 favorites]
Special education mandates are also enforced by the Dept of Education. Without it, there will be no one to make sure schools are actually following the law and educating all children with appropriate accommodations.Many private schools already discriminate against disabled kids. All our progress towards a less ablist education system will be gone.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:30 AM on November 12 [11 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 5:30 AM on November 12 [11 favorites]
.....is a question that one might make an attempt to answer for oneself before loudly proclaiming the utter equivalency of the two parties at every opportunity.
I have never done this so don't put words in my mouth, please read the mod's note.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:08 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
I have never done this so don't put words in my mouth, please read the mod's note.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:08 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
Hamilton Nolan on real vs. fake populism: "So What Does That Mean in Practice?"
Note that the election response of, for example, Bernie Sanders is a list of policy prescriptions along these lines. That is because Bernie Sanders is a person who believes in a set of principles and sees politics as a way to try to achieve those principles. That is also why he is one of the most popular politicians in America. Many other politicians, whose election responses are panicked statements about who they plan to throw under the bus to appease certain swaths of imaginary voters, could learn something from this.posted by audi alteram partem at 6:28 AM on November 12 [7 favorites]
...
I am not saying that Chris Murphy is, in any sense, a bad Senator, by Senate standards; I am instead saying that if Chris Murphy is what counts as a good Democratic Senator, then it is reasonable to expect that most Democratic Senators will be quite willing to throw politically weak groups to the wolves. And I know from experience that it is a very short step from “Let’s pick big hard fights in order to advance real economic populism and let’s also tell our white working class friends that we hear them on letting girls in the boy’s bathrooms!” to “Okay let’s do the bathroom stuff and the border stuff and then put a pin in the real economic populism—we’re getting lots of internal pushback on the real economic populism. They’re doing ads calling us socialist. How about if we do Opportunity Zones instead?”
>What are the practical effects of abolishing the department of education?
Guess it's time to watch Interstellar again...
posted by torokunai at 6:37 AM on November 12 [2 favorites]
Guess it's time to watch Interstellar again...
posted by torokunai at 6:37 AM on November 12 [2 favorites]
I agree with Bernie’s policies but you can’t convince me the 1,000 anti-trans ads I saw were speaking to people’s economic concerns. I don’t give voters as much credit as he does.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:50 AM on November 12 [11 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:50 AM on November 12 [11 favorites]
Bernie, he only eats out of zee recycling bin. Schniffff.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:07 AM on November 12
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:07 AM on November 12
Most people are malleable. A big reason that fascists pick on trans people is that there are few trans people and most cis people don't know any trans people personally. There are plenty of people who will pull "but you're one of the good ones", yes, but consider how much harder it is to attack gay people now - that's absolutely because gay people are more visible and for every open bigot there's several people who either think "I don't care, big deal" or think "I have gay friends, this is bullshit".
There is no iron law that says that everyone is bigoted against trans people from full commitment to bigotry. Some people are, yes, but most people have just been propagandized. If you tell people a lot of plausible-sounding lies and show them a lot of terrifying lies on video, low-information/busy people will often go along, but you could also be working to educate them and develop their values and knowledge.
We have had the opportunity, squandered by the Democratic party, to lead on these issues and stay leading, just as they could lead on immigration. Instead, the Democratic party for the most part takes the "people are shitty, people are bigots, better cater to them to pass the most palatable parts of our agenda" position which is actually full of contempt for the average person. The higher reaches of the Democratic party see us as masses to be administered like we're just a....a vat of yeast or something. Poke us with anti-immigrant sentiment here to grow us there, etc.
I read an excellent essay in the Nation (maybe?) the other day about how civic organizations have turned into fund-raising organizations over the late 20the century - how instead of having neighborhood organizations and actually doing things and being present, they focus on membership drives, fund-raising and nothing more. Want to help? Write a check! That's all you can do. I remember when I was a teen and I joined several progressive orgs in the hopes that somehow that would get me things to do, and it was just more fundraising. Now in theory, of course, that's the most effective - give money, let the experts do their thing with your money. But in practice, it deteriorates the social ecosystem and gets us where we are now. It's like you don't ever have to go to the record store any more, or the bookstore, or anywhere - just sit in your house and have it all delivered. But then it turns out that going places and seeing people and doing things were actually a vital part of it after all and now everyone is sad, alone and absorbing propaganda on their phones.
It's much easier to collect the checks and administer the masses...until whoops, it isn't.
posted by Frowner at 7:08 AM on November 12 [25 favorites]
There is no iron law that says that everyone is bigoted against trans people from full commitment to bigotry. Some people are, yes, but most people have just been propagandized. If you tell people a lot of plausible-sounding lies and show them a lot of terrifying lies on video, low-information/busy people will often go along, but you could also be working to educate them and develop their values and knowledge.
We have had the opportunity, squandered by the Democratic party, to lead on these issues and stay leading, just as they could lead on immigration. Instead, the Democratic party for the most part takes the "people are shitty, people are bigots, better cater to them to pass the most palatable parts of our agenda" position which is actually full of contempt for the average person. The higher reaches of the Democratic party see us as masses to be administered like we're just a....a vat of yeast or something. Poke us with anti-immigrant sentiment here to grow us there, etc.
I read an excellent essay in the Nation (maybe?) the other day about how civic organizations have turned into fund-raising organizations over the late 20the century - how instead of having neighborhood organizations and actually doing things and being present, they focus on membership drives, fund-raising and nothing more. Want to help? Write a check! That's all you can do. I remember when I was a teen and I joined several progressive orgs in the hopes that somehow that would get me things to do, and it was just more fundraising. Now in theory, of course, that's the most effective - give money, let the experts do their thing with your money. But in practice, it deteriorates the social ecosystem and gets us where we are now. It's like you don't ever have to go to the record store any more, or the bookstore, or anywhere - just sit in your house and have it all delivered. But then it turns out that going places and seeing people and doing things were actually a vital part of it after all and now everyone is sad, alone and absorbing propaganda on their phones.
It's much easier to collect the checks and administer the masses...until whoops, it isn't.
posted by Frowner at 7:08 AM on November 12 [25 favorites]
real vs. fake populism: "So What Does That Mean in Practice?"
Thanks for the article. I would suggest that everything hinges on most people being aware that money is a public instrument and can be taxed and redistributed for public good, and if not, it works for the "public bad" generally. When money piles up for the few it causes unofficial secret power and lack of concern for the wider economy, and instead serves special interest. There is no sentimental feeling required to understand it, and any fears are rational concerns, instead of a magical belief that the economy results from positive energy waves from wealthy people with stupid opinions. What it also means is that if someone pretends that taxing wealth is just a nice program for the worst off, then they missed the point and swallowed conservative dogma. It's about an economic demand flow that causes a million different streams of opportunity.
posted by Brian B. at 7:09 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
Thanks for the article. I would suggest that everything hinges on most people being aware that money is a public instrument and can be taxed and redistributed for public good, and if not, it works for the "public bad" generally. When money piles up for the few it causes unofficial secret power and lack of concern for the wider economy, and instead serves special interest. There is no sentimental feeling required to understand it, and any fears are rational concerns, instead of a magical belief that the economy results from positive energy waves from wealthy people with stupid opinions. What it also means is that if someone pretends that taxing wealth is just a nice program for the worst off, then they missed the point and swallowed conservative dogma. It's about an economic demand flow that causes a million different streams of opportunity.
posted by Brian B. at 7:09 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
re: fake populism, here's a post-mortem interview with Thomas Frank
(editor of The Baffler, author of New Consensus for Old [archive.org], Listen, Liberal, The People, No: A Brief History of Anti-Populism, etc)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]
(editor of The Baffler, author of New Consensus for Old [archive.org], Listen, Liberal, The People, No: A Brief History of Anti-Populism, etc)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]
> "And if you kind of take it in context, I mean, would it have been OK if Hitler were assassinated back in the 1930s?"
apparently according to christian nationalist eric metaxas who wrote a book on dietrich bonhoeffer, a german pastor nazis hanged for his involvement in hitler's assassination plot. (cf. franz jägerstätter) notably though, the new bonhoeffer movie, which metaxas is promoting (but isn't associated with otherwise), has bonhoeffer's relatives, religious scholars -- and its actors -- calling out metaxas and christian nationalists for taking bonhoeffer's name in vain:
on that note, more on the personnel-is-policy front:
Trump's 'America First' revival could backfire - "Donald Trump's election victory heralds a revival of his nakedly transactional approach to foreign policy and trade. That will further erode global principles and make the United States a less reliable ally. Its friends in Europe and Asia may then hedge their bets, ultimately strengthening its rivals China and Russia."
Trump Doesn't Have to Be Bad News For Ukraine - "Trump and his team need to rethink what winning and losing in Ukraine would mean — and they have time if they’re willing to use it. Because to give Moscow what it wants out of ignorance would represent an historic failure that stores up deep trouble for Europe, the US and likely Taiwan, let alone Ukraine."
Finland dismisses 'Finlandisation' model for Ukraine - "Forcing neutrality onto Ukraine will not bring about a peaceful solution to the crisis with Russia, Finland's foreign minister said on Monday, adding that Moscow could not be trusted to adhere to any agreement it signs."
meanwhile, as the house falls, the grift goes on...
Donald Trump says he has no plans to sell DJT stock, calls for probe into "market manipulators" - "Trump's call for an investigation into trading of the stock highlight potential conflicts of interest between his role as the nation's chief executive and his business interests, with his holdings in the company valued at $3.6 billion as of Friday afternoon. As president, Trump will not only have oversight of many federal agencies, but will also appoint the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency that regulates the securities industry."
posted by kliuless at 7:26 AM on November 12 [13 favorites]
apparently according to christian nationalist eric metaxas who wrote a book on dietrich bonhoeffer, a german pastor nazis hanged for his involvement in hitler's assassination plot. (cf. franz jägerstätter) notably though, the new bonhoeffer movie, which metaxas is promoting (but isn't associated with otherwise), has bonhoeffer's relatives, religious scholars -- and its actors -- calling out metaxas and christian nationalists for taking bonhoeffer's name in vain:
“This portrayal glorifies violence and draws inappropriate analogies between our political system and that of Nazi Germany,” the scholars said in a statement, which has been signed by more than 800 Bonhoeffer scholars and other Christian leaders. “It is a dangerous misuse of Bonhoeffer’s life and lessons, particularly in this election season in the United States.”the lack of self awareness is baffling, but i guess that's christian nationalists' dark superpower -- giving them the ability to engage in brazen, wanton hypocrisy without batting an eye (or weighing on their conscience) -- which is par for the course of where we find ourselves today.
The scholars and relatives of Bonhoeffer also objected to the mention of Bonhoeffer’s work in Project 2025, a controversial plan from the Heritage Foundation and other Trump supporters, which has been criticized for promoting Christian nationalism.
“From Project 2025 to violent political rhetoric, the legacy of German pastor Dietrich Bonhoeffer is being invoked this election season on behalf of Christian Nationalism,” the scholars said in their statement. “It is a dangerous and grievous misuse of his theology and life.”
[...]
In an interview for a German news publication, relatives of Bonhoeffer criticized that depiction of the theologian. Relatives also released a statement Friday rejecting the idea that Bonhoeffer would have embraced Christian nationalism.
“He would never have seen himself anywhere near the right-wing extremist, violent movements that are trying to appropriate him today,” family members said in a statement passed on by Bonhoeffer scholars. “On the contrary, he would have criticized these very attitudes.”
Metaxas’ press contact did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
[...]
Hale said Bonhoeffer’s theological and ethical reflections in the face of the evils of the Nazis are distorted by American Christian nationalists. In America’s current politics, she fears Christian nationalists miss the real comparisons with Nazi Germany, including “threats to political enemies, the free press, and the Constitution, and calls to dehumanize certain groups of people, especially immigrants and refugees.”
on that note, more on the personnel-is-policy front:
- As Donald Trump staffs up for second term, only MAGA loyalists need apply - "Without people around him who are inclined to push back, the president-elect may find it easier to bend longstanding norms in pursuit of his conservative agenda, both Trump supporters and opponents say."
- Trump Is Assembling the MAGA Avengers - "The president-elect is putting together a crack team of hatemogers, election deniers, and mass deportation stans." (also: who would have thought bloomberg would be part of the samizdat?)
- What to know about Tom Homan, the former ICE head returning as Trump's 'border czar' - "Notably, Homan was one of the architects behind its controversial family separation policy. More than 5,500 children of immigrants were separated from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2018 under the administration's short-lived "Zero Tolerance" policy. According to the Department of Homeland Security, as of April, there were still 1,401 children without confirmed reunification." (Separated: Children at the Border (full documentary) | FRONTLINE; also btw NBC Delays Release of Errol Morris 'Separated' Doc to After Election)
- Trump picks GOP former congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA - "As a congressman from New York, Zeldin received the League of Conservation Voters' worst score on environmental issues out of the entire New York delegation in 2020."
- How a Trump Presidency Could Lead to a Purge at the Pentagon - "Current and former U.S. officials say Trump will prioritize loyalty in his second term and root out military officers and career civil servants he perceives to be disloyal."
Speaking at the National Conservatism Conference in July, Homan told undocumented immigrants to "wait till 2025," adding, "If you're here illegally, you better be looking over your shoulder."
"Trump comes back in January," Homan said. "I'll be on his heels coming back. And I will run the biggest deportation operation this country's ever seen."
Trump's 'America First' revival could backfire - "Donald Trump's election victory heralds a revival of his nakedly transactional approach to foreign policy and trade. That will further erode global principles and make the United States a less reliable ally. Its friends in Europe and Asia may then hedge their bets, ultimately strengthening its rivals China and Russia."
The president-elect’s first stint in the Oval Office showed that he cares little for rules and alliances but has a fondness for autocrats. More recently he has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “genius” for invading Ukraine and described Chinese President Xi Jinping as “brilliant, opens new tab” for controlling his people with an “iron fist”...or consider this take...
As a result, allies in Europe and Asia will trust the United States less and view it as an unreliable partner. They will look for alternative ways to protect themselves in a world where might matters more than right.
Trump Doesn't Have to Be Bad News For Ukraine - "Trump and his team need to rethink what winning and losing in Ukraine would mean — and they have time if they’re willing to use it. Because to give Moscow what it wants out of ignorance would represent an historic failure that stores up deep trouble for Europe, the US and likely Taiwan, let alone Ukraine."
The White House, the rest of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Western media need to stop measuring victory or defeat in terms of Ukraine’s ability to recover the territory Russia has seized. Ukrainians made that mental shift long ago, after 2023’s failed counteroffensive. Winning’s no longer a question of getting all the land back, but of creating the security Ukraine needs to emerge as an economically viable independent state.but that's the plan? finland gets it...
Russia understands this, too. Its strategy is to prevent such a Ukraine from materializing. For Putin, issues of territory, while important, are secondary to his original war aims. He still wants to “denazify” Ukraine, that is, replace its leader with a Russian client; and he still wants to “demilitarize” it, meaning to make it incapable of defending itself from future attack, should Kyiv ever again fail to bend to his will.
Finland dismisses 'Finlandisation' model for Ukraine - "Forcing neutrality onto Ukraine will not bring about a peaceful solution to the crisis with Russia, Finland's foreign minister said on Monday, adding that Moscow could not be trusted to adhere to any agreement it signs."
meanwhile, as the house falls, the grift goes on...
Donald Trump says he has no plans to sell DJT stock, calls for probe into "market manipulators" - "Trump's call for an investigation into trading of the stock highlight potential conflicts of interest between his role as the nation's chief executive and his business interests, with his holdings in the company valued at $3.6 billion as of Friday afternoon. As president, Trump will not only have oversight of many federal agencies, but will also appoint the head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency that regulates the securities industry."
Although there's no requirement that presidents sell their financial assets when they take office, most U.S. presidents have opted to put their business holdings into a blind trust, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan law and policy institute. A blind trust is managed by an independent trustee, and the president or other official who created the trust isn't allowed to advise or consult with the trustee on business decisions.oh and re: MMT and "proof of its impracticality," as flabdablet points out, under rentier capitalism, money flows to the top -- which asset taxes or some other forms of progressive taxation could reverse -- but it's looking like it'll just go more quickly now to DJT & co. and his favored oligarchs.
During Trump's first term as president, he chose not to place his company, the Trump Organization, into a blind trust, opting instead to hand over management of the company to his oldest two sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, along with its longtime chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg. (Weisselberg was released from jail in July after pleading guilty to giving false testimony about the size of Trump's triplex apartment as part of a civil fraud trial.)
posted by kliuless at 7:26 AM on November 12 [13 favorites]
Notably, Homan was one of the architects behind its controversial family separation policy.
11/8, PBS: A Federal judge in Texas appointed by Trump struck down a Biden policy shielding immigrant spouses from deportation.
CNN: Indiana Senator-elect Banks -- ‘The goal should be to deport every illegal’
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:33 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]
11/8, PBS: A Federal judge in Texas appointed by Trump struck down a Biden policy shielding immigrant spouses from deportation.
CNN: Indiana Senator-elect Banks -- ‘The goal should be to deport every illegal’
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:33 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]
‘Your body, my choice’: Attacks on women surge on social media following election
Yeah, I got ripped on and told I was stupid for asking why there were so many cop cars/fire trucks/sirens going off yesterday. Don't you know it's Veterans Day? Can't you look at a calendar, bitch? Yeah, I can figure out "police gathering," but WHY THE SIRENS?! That's not even...anything. Except I use a female-obvious username.
A big reason that fascists pick on trans people is that there are few trans people and most cis people don't know any trans people personally.
Yeah :( Statistically a small, unusual population that need a lot of medical care and intervention from an early age. Nobody seems to know how this condition comes about so it seems to be a mystery on a medical level. A lot of people know they are what they are early on. You really can't be all "the kid has to wait to 18 to decide" about it. Parents, families, friends, medical professionals and schools all have to be on board to support the kid. I fear all of those things make them easiest to go after.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:53 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
Yeah, I got ripped on and told I was stupid for asking why there were so many cop cars/fire trucks/sirens going off yesterday. Don't you know it's Veterans Day? Can't you look at a calendar, bitch? Yeah, I can figure out "police gathering," but WHY THE SIRENS?! That's not even...anything. Except I use a female-obvious username.
A big reason that fascists pick on trans people is that there are few trans people and most cis people don't know any trans people personally.
Yeah :( Statistically a small, unusual population that need a lot of medical care and intervention from an early age. Nobody seems to know how this condition comes about so it seems to be a mystery on a medical level. A lot of people know they are what they are early on. You really can't be all "the kid has to wait to 18 to decide" about it. Parents, families, friends, medical professionals and schools all have to be on board to support the kid. I fear all of those things make them easiest to go after.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:53 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
So when Waltz talks about assassinating Hitler he's threatening to have the CIA murder Zalinski, right? Since Putin keeps claiming he's trying to "denazify" Ukraine and Trumpists are all Putinists?
posted by sotonohito at 8:12 AM on November 12 [2 favorites]
posted by sotonohito at 8:12 AM on November 12 [2 favorites]
I feel like you see in a lot of spaces the tendency to say "it's not my job to explain things to you" and I do think that's backfired. In re: to trans issues, it's allowed the discussion to be about bathrooms and sports instead of healthcare. So now it's hard to have the language to simply respond to the misinformation and attacks.
posted by girlmightlive at 8:14 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 8:14 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
Trumpists are all Putinists
Well, until they realize Putin is neither their pal nor their employee...
posted by mittens at 8:14 AM on November 12
Well, until they realize Putin is neither their pal nor their employee...
posted by mittens at 8:14 AM on November 12
feel like you see in a lot of spaces the tendency to say "it's not my job to explain things to you" and I do think that's backfired.
I think the idea was that it would mean that more people from dominant groups would take on the job of explaining, not that no one would - but then they never stepped up. *Everyone* was able to find some aspect of marginalization which meant they didn’t have to be the explainer, which meant no one was getting explained to.
posted by corb at 8:38 AM on November 12 [9 favorites]
I think the idea was that it would mean that more people from dominant groups would take on the job of explaining, not that no one would - but then they never stepped up. *Everyone* was able to find some aspect of marginalization which meant they didn’t have to be the explainer, which meant no one was getting explained to.
posted by corb at 8:38 AM on November 12 [9 favorites]
Be ready always to give an answer to every man that asketh you a reason of the hope that is in you.
posted by mittens at 9:06 AM on November 12 [3 favorites]
posted by mittens at 9:06 AM on November 12 [3 favorites]
feel like you see in a lot of spaces the tendency to say "it's not my job to explain things to you" and I do think that's backfired.
i can't find it right now but there's this amusing meme which is a probably-famous painting of lenin addressing a rapt audience of, like, about-to-be-robustly-class-conscious workers or whatever, except the caption is "GOOGLE IS FREE. IT'S NOT MY JOB TO EDUCATE YOU". this meme makes the point quite well i reckon.
posted by busted_crayons at 9:25 AM on November 12 [3 favorites]
i can't find it right now but there's this amusing meme which is a probably-famous painting of lenin addressing a rapt audience of, like, about-to-be-robustly-class-conscious workers or whatever, except the caption is "GOOGLE IS FREE. IT'S NOT MY JOB TO EDUCATE YOU". this meme makes the point quite well i reckon.
posted by busted_crayons at 9:25 AM on November 12 [3 favorites]
It's darkly funny that Trump voters are using the excuse: "Ya gotta separate the art from the artist, maaaaaaaaaaan!"
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:37 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:37 AM on November 12 [1 favorite]
need a lot of medical care and intervention from an early age
It's really not a lot, it's just never been easy enough to access and the cultural conversation has blown it out of all proportion. Pediatric diabetes care is probably more complicated and dangerous, nobody ever died after misdosing puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones, but insulin is directly dangerous.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:43 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
It's really not a lot, it's just never been easy enough to access and the cultural conversation has blown it out of all proportion. Pediatric diabetes care is probably more complicated and dangerous, nobody ever died after misdosing puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones, but insulin is directly dangerous.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:43 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
(I mean, none of them are straightforwardly poisonous if you mess them up, unlike insulin which can just kill you)
posted by BungaDunga at 9:46 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
posted by BungaDunga at 9:46 AM on November 12 [4 favorites]
*Everyone* was able to find some aspect of marginalization which meant they didn’t have to be the explainer
Except the one configuration of identity told to knock off all the 'splaining.
For good reasons, but there's some irony there.
As that was only observed by those that maybe should have continued, and vice-versa.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:25 AM on November 12
Except the one configuration of identity told to knock off all the 'splaining.
For good reasons, but there's some irony there.
As that was only observed by those that maybe should have continued, and vice-versa.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:25 AM on November 12
IDK, I see lots of cis people doing defending and explaining of trans things.
The GOP does not care about the medical issues of trans stuff, they just want to ban it, and through the breach attack all social liberalism. We're just the weak point on the wall.
The enemy who wants to talk about medical issues, and who do specifically hate us, is the anti-trans liberals. I'm sure they would love to do what the UK has done. Long term, I feel like the worst thing that could happen to trans people is if the GOP creates anti-trans laws and frameworks that are palatable to the liberal anti-trans crowd.
So I hope they overreach, I hope they do clumsy bigoted hateful stuff and not savvy two-faced cruel shit that maintains the wedge.
(Or at least, that's how I feel on this rainy Tuesday.)
posted by fleacircus at 11:25 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
The GOP does not care about the medical issues of trans stuff, they just want to ban it, and through the breach attack all social liberalism. We're just the weak point on the wall.
The enemy who wants to talk about medical issues, and who do specifically hate us, is the anti-trans liberals. I'm sure they would love to do what the UK has done. Long term, I feel like the worst thing that could happen to trans people is if the GOP creates anti-trans laws and frameworks that are palatable to the liberal anti-trans crowd.
So I hope they overreach, I hope they do clumsy bigoted hateful stuff and not savvy two-faced cruel shit that maintains the wedge.
(Or at least, that's how I feel on this rainy Tuesday.)
posted by fleacircus at 11:25 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
Phillip Bump, The Vichy Washington Post:
What the numbers actually say about the 2024 election — In what will likely be the narrowest margin of victory since 2000, Trump probably benefitted from who stayed home.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:31 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
What the numbers actually say about the 2024 election — In what will likely be the narrowest margin of victory since 2000, Trump probably benefitted from who stayed home.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:31 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
Don Moynihan: Who is allowed to practice identity politics? —When the right does it, its just politics
posted by tonycpsu at 11:46 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 11:46 AM on November 12 [8 favorites]
There have been a few interactions in which I've felt obliged to disengage rather than 'explain' contrary to someone's more intersectional experience. And I think it usually is for the best, all in all. I wasn't going to persuade.
Mostly, it just gave me a little chuckle. I'm looking for those where I can find them right now.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:04 PM on November 12
Mostly, it just gave me a little chuckle. I'm looking for those where I can find them right now.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:04 PM on November 12
I was so hopeful and naive a week ago.
posted by mazola at 12:52 PM on November 12 [15 favorites]
posted by mazola at 12:52 PM on November 12 [15 favorites]
I can't help but wonder if we oversold Trump as a threat to ourselves too.
Here we are, after swearing up and down he was the end of democracy, talking about 2026 and 2028 like there will be regular elections then. I mean, I get that we have to presume there well be as a context for any sort of electoral talk, but it's kind of weird to me and I'm doing it too.
Is that just denialism on my/our part? Or did we really just overhype Trump's threat?
I mean, I'll be blunt, I'm at bitch eating crackers level hatred for Trump. Every single thing about him bothers me and pisses me off from his stupid makeup to his smug smirk. I'm probably really inclined to overestimate any sort of bad thing about him.
I'm not hoping he's going to go dictator, but I'll admit i'll feel kind of silly if 2026 rolls around and there's a normal election, after two years of Turmp shit the Democrats retake the House and Senate, and in 2028 JD Vance loses to wheover the Democrats put up.
posted by sotonohito at 1:50 PM on November 12 [11 favorites]
Here we are, after swearing up and down he was the end of democracy, talking about 2026 and 2028 like there will be regular elections then. I mean, I get that we have to presume there well be as a context for any sort of electoral talk, but it's kind of weird to me and I'm doing it too.
Is that just denialism on my/our part? Or did we really just overhype Trump's threat?
I mean, I'll be blunt, I'm at bitch eating crackers level hatred for Trump. Every single thing about him bothers me and pisses me off from his stupid makeup to his smug smirk. I'm probably really inclined to overestimate any sort of bad thing about him.
I'm not hoping he's going to go dictator, but I'll admit i'll feel kind of silly if 2026 rolls around and there's a normal election, after two years of Turmp shit the Democrats retake the House and Senate, and in 2028 JD Vance loses to wheover the Democrats put up.
posted by sotonohito at 1:50 PM on November 12 [11 favorites]
Here in Australia, the face-eating leopards have just had a win in Queensland that could easily be seen as at least partially due to Labor having taken its eye off the main game in its effort to undermine the Greens.
In some ways, this was a predictor of the US election and turned out how it did for very similar reasons, although the policy areas were slightly different. Cost of living featured highly (although that turned into the slight positive but hilarious result of both sides double-daring each other into making permanent the flat 50c public transport fares), but youth crime (I can see parallels with the focus on immigrants in the US) was perhaps the biggest issue and one which was easy for the challenger to make big talk about and hard for the incumbent to defend, in the same way cost of living played out.
What really stood out to me, though, was the personality differences. Miles has been a decent Premier in the time he's had, although the public perception of him is tainted by his unpopular predecessor. People seem to trust him, but lots think he's a bit too 'nice' to lead the state. Chrisafulli is someone who everyone I know distrusts, but he had the advantage of the challenger in being able to make all sorts of rash promises without having to back them up with any evidence or formal policy. As with the US, genuine concern about cost of living and conservative media-generated fear about the (so-called) wave of youth crime sweeping the state led to how people voted and here we are having voted out someone we trust and elevated someone nobody trusts on some nebulous idea of what a strong leader looks like. Unless something changes dramatically (look, up there, a flying pig!), we'll see the same thing repeated on the national stage sometime between March and May next year.
I hate that US politics has such an outsized impact on how the rest of the world votes.
posted by dg at 2:08 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
In some ways, this was a predictor of the US election and turned out how it did for very similar reasons, although the policy areas were slightly different. Cost of living featured highly (although that turned into the slight positive but hilarious result of both sides double-daring each other into making permanent the flat 50c public transport fares), but youth crime (I can see parallels with the focus on immigrants in the US) was perhaps the biggest issue and one which was easy for the challenger to make big talk about and hard for the incumbent to defend, in the same way cost of living played out.
What really stood out to me, though, was the personality differences. Miles has been a decent Premier in the time he's had, although the public perception of him is tainted by his unpopular predecessor. People seem to trust him, but lots think he's a bit too 'nice' to lead the state. Chrisafulli is someone who everyone I know distrusts, but he had the advantage of the challenger in being able to make all sorts of rash promises without having to back them up with any evidence or formal policy. As with the US, genuine concern about cost of living and conservative media-generated fear about the (so-called) wave of youth crime sweeping the state led to how people voted and here we are having voted out someone we trust and elevated someone nobody trusts on some nebulous idea of what a strong leader looks like. Unless something changes dramatically (look, up there, a flying pig!), we'll see the same thing repeated on the national stage sometime between March and May next year.
I hate that US politics has such an outsized impact on how the rest of the world votes.
posted by dg at 2:08 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
I just know all the shitty people who slithered into positions of power 2017-2020 and know it's going to be 10X worse this go around.
Elog's got his Orwellian “Department of Government Efficiency” ready to go; he'd love to fire 70% of gov't workers, making what happened to the USPS a children's show.
Trump came within a dying senator's No vote of shitcanning PPACA aka "ObamaCare", I don't think it will survive the coming session.
I do think taxes will be cut on families but jacked up on single cat ladies (and men like me), via a flat tax with generous credits for having kids.
There's so much damage an untethered GOP admin can do this time around, plus they get to preside over the 2026 Bicentennial celebrations like Ford did 50 years ago.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S shows our fiscal situation has been sliding to ShitsVille since 2015, so there's no prior fiscal restraint the GOP can temporarily liquidate to get their tax cuts working this time. They could go after SSA and its $2.8T surplus holdings of US Treasuries, saying they're going to stop cashing them in and SSA recipients can get stuffed or something. Or have the Fed monetize them like they did for real estate 2021-22.
We could really be in a world of shit in 2 years. But have more flags to wave to demonstrate our patriotism in these trying times.
posted by torokunai at 2:11 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
Elog's got his Orwellian “Department of Government Efficiency” ready to go; he'd love to fire 70% of gov't workers, making what happened to the USPS a children's show.
Trump came within a dying senator's No vote of shitcanning PPACA aka "ObamaCare", I don't think it will survive the coming session.
I do think taxes will be cut on families but jacked up on single cat ladies (and men like me), via a flat tax with generous credits for having kids.
There's so much damage an untethered GOP admin can do this time around, plus they get to preside over the 2026 Bicentennial celebrations like Ford did 50 years ago.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S shows our fiscal situation has been sliding to ShitsVille since 2015, so there's no prior fiscal restraint the GOP can temporarily liquidate to get their tax cuts working this time. They could go after SSA and its $2.8T surplus holdings of US Treasuries, saying they're going to stop cashing them in and SSA recipients can get stuffed or something. Or have the Fed monetize them like they did for real estate 2021-22.
We could really be in a world of shit in 2 years. But have more flags to wave to demonstrate our patriotism in these trying times.
posted by torokunai at 2:11 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
I can't help but wonder if we oversold Trump as a threat to ourselves too.
In a way, that's a comforting thought. But then stuff like this keep popping up (and it's only a week after election day).
posted by mazola at 2:13 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
In a way, that's a comforting thought. But then stuff like this keep popping up (and it's only a week after election day).
posted by mazola at 2:13 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
He can't even organize a military parade and that was when he had former generals in his cabinet, good luck navigating the actual military bureaucracy.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:39 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon at 2:39 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
> I can't help but wonder if we oversold Trump as a threat to ourselves too.
Everything creates its own contradictions. For example, now that they have control of every branch of government, the infighting in the GOP will go overboard (take your mind back to the bare knuckle brawls over the speakership in the past decade). And, almost everyone in GOP leadership is dumb as shit, even Vance, who is not a complete idiot, is hardly sparkling diamond of a mind. So they will do terrible things, but those actions will have unanticipated consequences that have the potential to unravel their control of government entirely. Just mass deportation by itself, if implemented as they say they will, will throw this country into a recession so deep that nobody will forget who is to blame.
So, yes, they will do terrible things, but also this is not the end, history will not settle here, and another thing, that nobody can predict, is in store for us
posted by dis_integration at 3:14 PM on November 12 [13 favorites]
Everything creates its own contradictions. For example, now that they have control of every branch of government, the infighting in the GOP will go overboard (take your mind back to the bare knuckle brawls over the speakership in the past decade). And, almost everyone in GOP leadership is dumb as shit, even Vance, who is not a complete idiot, is hardly sparkling diamond of a mind. So they will do terrible things, but those actions will have unanticipated consequences that have the potential to unravel their control of government entirely. Just mass deportation by itself, if implemented as they say they will, will throw this country into a recession so deep that nobody will forget who is to blame.
So, yes, they will do terrible things, but also this is not the end, history will not settle here, and another thing, that nobody can predict, is in store for us
posted by dis_integration at 3:14 PM on November 12 [13 favorites]
I can't help but wonder if we oversold Trump as a threat to ourselves too.
There are going to be a bunch of various marginalized people that die because of all the hateful assholes emboldened by the head asshole's win that wouldn't have otherwise. I don't think the threat will feel undersold to them and mountain shit short of death that will surely come with it. So there's that.
His threat to democracy is a bit more complicated. The worst case is probably something where the powers that be in the GOP convince Trump to follow their plan (I don't think he cares enough work too hard at it) that will set in motion a path for Trump or some other GOP dipshit to be a dictator in all but name. It probably takes more than just the next four years but maybe they do some more serious shenanigans to get him re-elected in '28 or something else weird happens. Actions taken turning that admin would setup someone to be a big step closer to a de facto dictator in 2032 and by then it's unstoppable. I have to imagine Trump dies somewhere in there and someone else steps into the role.
Like, it's not like the GOP is going to get to work on day 1 eliminating democracy to have it done by Q1 2025 but I worry that a lot of folks hear him described as a threat and this fast-and-hard road to democracy is what they think is meant. Which just isn't realistic so they feel they can dismiss the threat.
Even then, something like what I described above is still highly unlikely but if things around the world start spiraling out of control all bets are off.
Or maybe they try to line up that path to dictatorship and then everyone takes this all more seriously and the GOP bumbles shit and it goes pear shaped for them.
I'm still holding out hope we'll see a somewhat farther left party rise up to replace the old guard dems as the new liberal/progressive party with a clearly stated mission to defeat the GOP's attempts at fascism. Maybe then the GOP survives as a Biden and John McCain types coalition/party. Maybe just as far right as Biden.
I just don't see the democrats moving left or learning anything generally. I hope to be proven wrong. So a party to left of current dems taking it's place seems every so slightly more possible.
posted by VTX at 3:19 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]
There are going to be a bunch of various marginalized people that die because of all the hateful assholes emboldened by the head asshole's win that wouldn't have otherwise. I don't think the threat will feel undersold to them and mountain shit short of death that will surely come with it. So there's that.
His threat to democracy is a bit more complicated. The worst case is probably something where the powers that be in the GOP convince Trump to follow their plan (I don't think he cares enough work too hard at it) that will set in motion a path for Trump or some other GOP dipshit to be a dictator in all but name. It probably takes more than just the next four years but maybe they do some more serious shenanigans to get him re-elected in '28 or something else weird happens. Actions taken turning that admin would setup someone to be a big step closer to a de facto dictator in 2032 and by then it's unstoppable. I have to imagine Trump dies somewhere in there and someone else steps into the role.
Like, it's not like the GOP is going to get to work on day 1 eliminating democracy to have it done by Q1 2025 but I worry that a lot of folks hear him described as a threat and this fast-and-hard road to democracy is what they think is meant. Which just isn't realistic so they feel they can dismiss the threat.
Even then, something like what I described above is still highly unlikely but if things around the world start spiraling out of control all bets are off.
Or maybe they try to line up that path to dictatorship and then everyone takes this all more seriously and the GOP bumbles shit and it goes pear shaped for them.
I'm still holding out hope we'll see a somewhat farther left party rise up to replace the old guard dems as the new liberal/progressive party with a clearly stated mission to defeat the GOP's attempts at fascism. Maybe then the GOP survives as a Biden and John McCain types coalition/party. Maybe just as far right as Biden.
I just don't see the democrats moving left or learning anything generally. I hope to be proven wrong. So a party to left of current dems taking it's place seems every so slightly more possible.
posted by VTX at 3:19 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]
Just mass deportation by itself, if implemented as they say they will, will throw this country into a recession so deep that nobody will forget who is to blame.
Covered on This American Life this week. (Note: episode features happy Trumpers gloating in some sections, you may want to be selective as to what sections you listen to.)
AOC Asked Voters Why They Voted for Her & Trump. The Answers Are… Interesting.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:47 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
Covered on This American Life this week. (Note: episode features happy Trumpers gloating in some sections, you may want to be selective as to what sections you listen to.)
AOC Asked Voters Why They Voted for Her & Trump. The Answers Are… Interesting.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:47 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
If Harris had simply stood for international law and withheld arms shipments to Israel?
Harris is the vice president and has no power do to that.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 12 [11 favorites]
Harris is the vice president and has no power do to that.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:55 PM on November 12 [11 favorites]
Trump picks Pete Hegseth, a veteran and Fox News host, for defense secretary [NYT, paywalled]
posted by Rykey at 5:45 PM on November 12
posted by Rykey at 5:45 PM on November 12
AOC Asked Voters Why They Voted for Her & Trump. The Answers Are… Interesting.
They don't even know why, not surprising since whimsical decisions don't offer sound reasons after the fact. But that doesn't mean they are inconsistent if they don't have a clue and just want to be right at least once. My guess is that most of them like Trump but want to protect their region from abuses, hoping he leaves their district alone. Their choices were similar to the abortion rights laws passed in many states where Trump won. The mismatch strangely avoids emotional confrontation in many, like how avoiding a school bully also means laughing with them, a failing which isn't instantly resolved in the privacy of a voting booth. I regret never seeing the political ad where MAGA police kick in the door of a politician's home and drags them out screaming in the night, as a neighbor peeks out their window cautiously. That's because they never made it, despite his threats. Maybe next time.
posted by Brian B. at 6:06 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
They don't even know why, not surprising since whimsical decisions don't offer sound reasons after the fact. But that doesn't mean they are inconsistent if they don't have a clue and just want to be right at least once. My guess is that most of them like Trump but want to protect their region from abuses, hoping he leaves their district alone. Their choices were similar to the abortion rights laws passed in many states where Trump won. The mismatch strangely avoids emotional confrontation in many, like how avoiding a school bully also means laughing with them, a failing which isn't instantly resolved in the privacy of a voting booth. I regret never seeing the political ad where MAGA police kick in the door of a politician's home and drags them out screaming in the night, as a neighbor peeks out their window cautiously. That's because they never made it, despite his threats. Maybe next time.
posted by Brian B. at 6:06 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
Please someone explain why DOGE will crash and burn.
I seriously doubt Musk or Ramaswamy know anything about either the government or efficiency so seems to me like something is going to crash and burn.
Fundamentally the issue that might slow this down (what I think you’re actually asking) is that Presidents can’t unilaterally create agencies. Congress has to enact legislation that details the role of the agency and also needs to fund it. While I doubt Trump will have a hard time finding support for this in a Republican Congress I’d be willing to be there will be some fights over the details as reps/senators realize they need to carve out their hyper local special interests. Also at a high level this would seem to share a lot of characteristics with the Government Accountability Office so who knows whether this would just be a rebranding of that existing agency or if this new thing gets held up with disambiguating it from the existing agency.
posted by malthas at 6:13 PM on November 12 [5 favorites]
I seriously doubt Musk or Ramaswamy know anything about either the government or efficiency so seems to me like something is going to crash and burn.
Fundamentally the issue that might slow this down (what I think you’re actually asking) is that Presidents can’t unilaterally create agencies. Congress has to enact legislation that details the role of the agency and also needs to fund it. While I doubt Trump will have a hard time finding support for this in a Republican Congress I’d be willing to be there will be some fights over the details as reps/senators realize they need to carve out their hyper local special interests. Also at a high level this would seem to share a lot of characteristics with the Government Accountability Office so who knows whether this would just be a rebranding of that existing agency or if this new thing gets held up with disambiguating it from the existing agency.
posted by malthas at 6:13 PM on November 12 [5 favorites]
Please someone explain why DOGE will crash and burn.
posted by Mitheral at 6:21 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
this commission will develop an action plan to totally eliminate fraud and improper payments within six months,” he said in September. “This will save trillions of dollars.”Man who can't run a charity because of previous fraudulent behaviour promises to eliminate fraud.
posted by Mitheral at 6:21 PM on November 12 [4 favorites]
Please someone explain why DOGE will crash and burn.
No guarantees, but:
(1) They're both chucklefucks who don't know what they're doing
(2) The sheer fact that they keep talking about creating a DOGE instead of just appointing the two chucklefucks to OMB implies an additional shrek-onion-layer of not knowing what they're doing
(3) Except for the most dimwitted magahats like Boebert, even goper MCs understand that the agencies that would get put out of business deliver services to their constituents and that goper constituents and goper areas are particularly reliant on gubmint aid.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:24 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]
No guarantees, but:
(1) They're both chucklefucks who don't know what they're doing
(2) The sheer fact that they keep talking about creating a DOGE instead of just appointing the two chucklefucks to OMB implies an additional shrek-onion-layer of not knowing what they're doing
(3) Except for the most dimwitted magahats like Boebert, even goper MCs understand that the agencies that would get put out of business deliver services to their constituents and that goper constituents and goper areas are particularly reliant on gubmint aid.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:24 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]
I just don't see the democrats moving left or learning anything generally. I hope to be proven wrong. So a party to left of current dems taking it's place seems every so slightly more possible.
If we get such a party, one can only hope that it's not driven by the (overwhelmingly white and class-privileged) segment of the US "left" that's primarily about campism, accelerationism, and "after Hitler, our turn" delusions and which proved so helpful to Trump this time out.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:35 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
If we get such a party, one can only hope that it's not driven by the (overwhelmingly white and class-privileged) segment of the US "left" that's primarily about campism, accelerationism, and "after Hitler, our turn" delusions and which proved so helpful to Trump this time out.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:35 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
Oh wait it looks like the whole DOGE thing is just those two idiots being unofficial consultants for OMB
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:46 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:46 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
delusions and which proved so helpful to Trump this time out.
Wait, who is delusional? Who are we talking about here? Bernie? Uncommitted? Name names if you’re going to blame the weakest political segment in American life for Trump.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:06 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
Wait, who is delusional? Who are we talking about here? Bernie? Uncommitted? Name names if you’re going to blame the weakest political segment in American life for Trump.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:06 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
I'm pretty sure the delusion was that all we needed was the same old Biden in a shiny new package.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:11 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:11 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
>but those actions will have unanticipated consequences
Steve Sailer is an odious shit but he asserted on his blog the Bush admin intentionally lowered / de-facto eliminated the "5 Cs of Mortgage Loan Underwriting": Character (i.e. credit history), Capacity (i.e. demonstrated ability to repay), Capital (loan-to-value): Collateral (the quality of the property itself), and Conditions (the wider market) since their polling saw that all homeowners skewed conservative (naturally enough) and they wanted to make more Republicans for 2004 since 2000 was so close.
The plan worked, until it didn't.
(Bush Père's reelection got derailed due to total employment falling by 1.5M+ people 1990-92 and the economically underemployment gap growing from ~9M to ~12M by 1992 : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ADSh . . . the NBER's got a pretty f'in bizarre way of designating 'recession's since the Clinton economy's 2001's peak employment level wasn't recovered until 2005: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ADU5)
posted by torokunai at 7:16 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
Steve Sailer is an odious shit but he asserted on his blog the Bush admin intentionally lowered / de-facto eliminated the "5 Cs of Mortgage Loan Underwriting": Character (i.e. credit history), Capacity (i.e. demonstrated ability to repay), Capital (loan-to-value): Collateral (the quality of the property itself), and Conditions (the wider market) since their polling saw that all homeowners skewed conservative (naturally enough) and they wanted to make more Republicans for 2004 since 2000 was so close.
The plan worked, until it didn't.
(Bush Père's reelection got derailed due to total employment falling by 1.5M+ people 1990-92 and the economically underemployment gap growing from ~9M to ~12M by 1992 : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ADSh . . . the NBER's got a pretty f'in bizarre way of designating 'recession's since the Clinton economy's 2001's peak employment level wasn't recovered until 2005: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ADU5)
posted by torokunai at 7:16 PM on November 12 [1 favorite]
Updated more in the Palestine genocide thread but I'll let current WH stenographer sum it up:
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱Secretary of State Blinken has decided that there will be no change for now to military assistance to Israel following the deadline the U.S. gave Israel regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza and that expires today, two U.S. officials said. The officials said Israel has taken important steps to address the U.S. concerns regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza and stressed the U.S. wants to see more steps in the coming days
A key 'leak' that was bandied about just before the polls.
posted by cendawanita at 8:01 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱Secretary of State Blinken has decided that there will be no change for now to military assistance to Israel following the deadline the U.S. gave Israel regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza and that expires today, two U.S. officials said. The officials said Israel has taken important steps to address the U.S. concerns regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza and stressed the U.S. wants to see more steps in the coming days
A key 'leak' that was bandied about just before the polls.
posted by cendawanita at 8:01 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]
Forgot to add:
The House vote on HR 9495 failed! This is a crucial win for Palestinian rights groups and all nonprofits advocating for justice.
That's with 52 House Dems voting for it.
posted by cendawanita at 8:03 PM on November 12 [8 favorites]
The House vote on HR 9495 failed! This is a crucial win for Palestinian rights groups and all nonprofits advocating for justice.
That's with 52 House Dems voting for it.
posted by cendawanita at 8:03 PM on November 12 [8 favorites]
I can't help but wonder if we oversold Trump as a threat to ourselves too.
No: Trump’s First Executive Order May Be a Military Purge
(This is in addition to Trump leading an attempted coup against Congress in 2021)
posted by dirigibleman at 8:41 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]
No: Trump’s First Executive Order May Be a Military Purge
(This is in addition to Trump leading an attempted coup against Congress in 2021)
posted by dirigibleman at 8:41 PM on November 12 [7 favorites]
I'm pretty sure the delusion was that all we needed was the same old Biden in a shiny new package.
I continue to maintain that, other than Gaza (aside from that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?), Biden should be well remembered by the left.
No, he is not a leftist, but he turned the apparatus of government to helping the little guy in a way not seen in my lifetime. Problem is that it takes time for the effects to be really felt and there just wasn't enough before the election.
posted by wierdo at 9:44 PM on November 12 [8 favorites]
I continue to maintain that, other than Gaza (aside from that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?), Biden should be well remembered by the left.
No, he is not a leftist, but he turned the apparatus of government to helping the little guy in a way not seen in my lifetime. Problem is that it takes time for the effects to be really felt and there just wasn't enough before the election.
posted by wierdo at 9:44 PM on November 12 [8 favorites]
>52 House Dems voting for it.
Out of 213. If you don't caucus with people who aren't as pure as you you're going to be a party of just yourself.
posted by torokunai at 9:49 PM on November 12 [2 favorites]
Out of 213. If you don't caucus with people who aren't as pure as you you're going to be a party of just yourself.
posted by torokunai at 9:49 PM on November 12 [2 favorites]
Over banning nonprofits?
posted by cendawanita at 10:31 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 10:31 PM on November 12 [6 favorites]
HR9495 was drafted to just provide tax relief for Americans imprisoned or held hostage overseas.
Republicans used this bill to add the second provision about destroying non-profits (this was previously blocked in the Senate earlier this year - see HR6408).
posted by JDC8 at 11:16 PM on November 12
Republicans used this bill to add the second provision about destroying non-profits (this was previously blocked in the Senate earlier this year - see HR6408).
posted by JDC8 at 11:16 PM on November 12
"Mr. Berlusconi was able to govern Italy for as long as he did mostly thanks to the incompetence of his opposition. It was so rabidly obsessed with his personality that any substantive political debate disappeared; it focused only on personal attacks, the effect of which was to increase Mr. Berlusconi’s popularity. His secret was an ability to set off a Pavlovian reaction among his leftist opponents, which engendered instantaneous sympathy in most moderate voters." - via NYTimes
posted by fairmettle at 11:45 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
posted by fairmettle at 11:45 PM on November 12 [3 favorites]
A key 'leak' that was bandied about just before the polls.
But Her Emails Part II
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:28 AM on November 13
But Her Emails Part II
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:28 AM on November 13
... To make people vote for her less? Or are you saying this like how when Alice went through the looking glass so it's the opposite of everything, right down to the amount of coverage?
Now I'm seeing this Sept 2023 piece: US progressive groups facing ‘five-alarm fire’ ahead of 2024 as donations down
Mind you I'm getting that share via Adam Johnson: My sense is that a lot of the #resistance money that was there in 2017 from liberal billionaires will be a no show this time around and the vibe from that crowd is to let Trump discipline their mutual enemies, namely poor people, Gaza protestors, “woke”, anti police movements etc, so that's his take which I'm feel sympathetic to.
Actually new reporting: The Real Reason Texas Isn’t Turning Blue -
Every few years, we’re told that Democrats are about to break through in the red state. Here’s why they continue to lose.
But given the recent tenor from the party’s centrist wing, from Hinojosa down to his Gen Z heirs apparent, the lesson of Allred’s loss—that no amount of money or online clout can paper over a candidate’s weaknesses—could just as easily fall on deaf ears.
(...) For years, Texas was seen as nothing more than “the ATM” for Democrats’ national aspirations. Candidates would fly through Houston, Dallas, and Austin for a couple swanky donor parties and leave soon thereafter, knowing full well the state wasn’t in play. But as other states such as Florida and West Virginia became less competitive, and campaigns like O’Rourke’s showed outsiders that Texas could, perhaps, swing blue, donors’ attention shifted. This has been a blessing and a curse. On one hand, candidates can potentially tap into a wider “market,” so to speak, to fund their campaign; on the other, it disconnects candidates from the prerequisite for local support.
(...) “The conservative wing of the party is what fucked this up,” said one Democratic insider in Texas, who spoke freely on condition of anonymity. These candidates chase political majorities based on the imagined centrist ideal, a votership that exists, however amorphously, within the data. But real political majorities are constructed through deliberate movement work, neighborhood by neighborhood, with a clear directive—not simply happened upon through a couple of well-timed ads. “Allred’s campaign, and the people involved with it, was a fucking disaster,” they continued, “and they need to suffer the consequences of their failure.”
posted by cendawanita at 1:54 AM on November 13 [7 favorites]
Now I'm seeing this Sept 2023 piece: US progressive groups facing ‘five-alarm fire’ ahead of 2024 as donations down
Mind you I'm getting that share via Adam Johnson: My sense is that a lot of the #resistance money that was there in 2017 from liberal billionaires will be a no show this time around and the vibe from that crowd is to let Trump discipline their mutual enemies, namely poor people, Gaza protestors, “woke”, anti police movements etc, so that's his take which I'm feel sympathetic to.
Actually new reporting: The Real Reason Texas Isn’t Turning Blue -
Every few years, we’re told that Democrats are about to break through in the red state. Here’s why they continue to lose.
But given the recent tenor from the party’s centrist wing, from Hinojosa down to his Gen Z heirs apparent, the lesson of Allred’s loss—that no amount of money or online clout can paper over a candidate’s weaknesses—could just as easily fall on deaf ears.
(...) For years, Texas was seen as nothing more than “the ATM” for Democrats’ national aspirations. Candidates would fly through Houston, Dallas, and Austin for a couple swanky donor parties and leave soon thereafter, knowing full well the state wasn’t in play. But as other states such as Florida and West Virginia became less competitive, and campaigns like O’Rourke’s showed outsiders that Texas could, perhaps, swing blue, donors’ attention shifted. This has been a blessing and a curse. On one hand, candidates can potentially tap into a wider “market,” so to speak, to fund their campaign; on the other, it disconnects candidates from the prerequisite for local support.
(...) “The conservative wing of the party is what fucked this up,” said one Democratic insider in Texas, who spoke freely on condition of anonymity. These candidates chase political majorities based on the imagined centrist ideal, a votership that exists, however amorphously, within the data. But real political majorities are constructed through deliberate movement work, neighborhood by neighborhood, with a clear directive—not simply happened upon through a couple of well-timed ads. “Allred’s campaign, and the people involved with it, was a fucking disaster,” they continued, “and they need to suffer the consequences of their failure.”
posted by cendawanita at 1:54 AM on November 13 [7 favorites]
> There are going to be a bunch of various marginalized people that die because of all the hateful assholes emboldened by the head asshole's win that wouldn't have otherwise. I don't think the threat will feel undersold to them and mountain shit short of death that will surely come with it. So there's that.
for example...
With ACA subsidies set to expire in 2025, millions of Americans stand to lose health insurance - "If Republicans gain control of Congress, they are widely expected to allow the enhanced ACA subsidies to expire at the end of 2025, depriving many people who buy coverage through the ACA and who currently receive these subsidies of that financial assistance, according to health care policy experts."
-ACA enrollment surged in red states this year
-As Election Looms, Insurers Offer More Obamacare Plans In Red States
meanwhile, a libertarian think tank revs its policy prescription engines:
US oil industry urges Trump to ditch Biden climate policies - "The American Petroleum Institute (API), the nation's top oil and gas trade group, urged Trump's incoming administration to do away with vehicle emissions standards meant to move the auto industry to produce more electric vehicles, lift a pause on export permits for liquefied natural gas facilities and work with Congress to repeal a fee on methane emissions from drilling operations, among a range of other actions."
"Hatemonger": Stephen Miller to Hold Key Post as Trump Pushes Mass Detention & Deportation - "Homan has deep ties to the far right. Two years ago, he attended a white supremacist conference hosted by Nick Fuentes."
Trump expected to tap Marco Rubio for secretary of state - "By selecting Rubio for a key policy role, Trump may help consolidate electoral gains among Latinos and make clear that they have a place at the highest levels of his administration."
speaking of optics...
What To Know About Scott Bessent: Potential Trump Treasury Pick Founded Key Square Hedge Fund - "Scott Bessent could be the first Senate-approved LGBTQ+ member in a Republican cabinet (Richard Grenell became the first openly gay acting cabinet member when Trump tapped him as the acting director of national intelligence in 2020)."
also btw...
Elon Musk wants to radically reshape who controls America's money supply :P
re: "Putin is neither their pal nor their employee..."
putin hints at trump kompromat? which who knows, but i think hartmann's larger point stands:
Upton Sinclair and the Modern Media Campaign - "Sinclair rose to political prominence after he launched a hugely popular anti-poverty campaign."
oh and last but not least...
Make no mistake: this Trump presidency will continue to attack abortion rights - "Trump can simply restrict abortion through federal agencies. He will soon be in control of the FDA, for example, which regulates the abortion drug mifepristone, part of a two-drug regimen that now accounts for most abortions in the United States."
but it gets, uh, weirder...
The New Pro-Life Playbook - "Under Trump, a new vision of conservative family policy is ascendant."
for example...
With ACA subsidies set to expire in 2025, millions of Americans stand to lose health insurance - "If Republicans gain control of Congress, they are widely expected to allow the enhanced ACA subsidies to expire at the end of 2025, depriving many people who buy coverage through the ACA and who currently receive these subsidies of that financial assistance, according to health care policy experts."
-ACA enrollment surged in red states this year
-As Election Looms, Insurers Offer More Obamacare Plans In Red States
meanwhile, a libertarian think tank revs its policy prescription engines:
- On Inflation Reduction Act Reform, Anything Short of Full Repeal Is Failure - "Full Republican control of Washington creates an opportunity to repeal many of the previous administration's most costly laws and regulations." (Democrats Are About to Rediscover the Value of the Filibuster)
- How Donald Trump and Elon Musk Could Cut $2 Trillion in Government Spending - "The Cato Institute's Chris Edwards calculates that 'federal aid to the states totaled $721 billion in 2019.' That number exploded during COVID-19 and, like everything else, has remained elevated. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers, federal funds accounted for 35 percent of total state spending in fiscal 2023."
- Blue Aid for Red States - "One of the more interesting ironies of the political dynamic is that the Republican philosophy of government — less spending and lower taxes — would most benefit the “blue states” while bigger government has been disproportionately beneficial to the red states."
- Trump and Climate Change Policy - "As a matter of politics, deep cuts to IRA funding will likely be unpopular since most of its subsidies and tax credits are being spent in Republican congressional districts and states."
US oil industry urges Trump to ditch Biden climate policies - "The American Petroleum Institute (API), the nation's top oil and gas trade group, urged Trump's incoming administration to do away with vehicle emissions standards meant to move the auto industry to produce more electric vehicles, lift a pause on export permits for liquefied natural gas facilities and work with Congress to repeal a fee on methane emissions from drilling operations, among a range of other actions."
During his campaign, Trump vowed to reverse dozens of environmental rules and policies deemed onerous by oil and gas drillers. Despite stiffer regulations under Biden, who has sought to transition the U.S. economy to clean energy sources, the domestic industry is producing more oil and gas than at any time in history...please hope me this is oversold?
API sought to rescind California's ability to enact state tailpipe emissions that are stricter than federal rules and to repeal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency clean vehicle rules. It also advocated supporting LNG exports, holding more auctions for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and reversing rules that the group says limits oil and gas development on federal lands. It wants Trump to make it easier to obtain drilling permits via changes to the Clean Water Act and National Environmental Policy Act, and implement tax incentives to infrastructure and overseas investment.
"Hatemonger": Stephen Miller to Hold Key Post as Trump Pushes Mass Detention & Deportation - "Homan has deep ties to the far right. Two years ago, he attended a white supremacist conference hosted by Nick Fuentes."
[Miller] is somebody who, as I report in my book, has expressed contempt for multiculturalism since he was a teenager attending high school in Santa Monica, where he would antagonize his Latino classmates, his immigrant classmates, yelling at them to speak English and to go back to their countries, according to his friends who I spoke with. He’d go to school board meetings to denounce Cinco de Mayo celebrations, multicultural celebrations at the school. And for many years, Stephen Miller has pursued what amounts to a homogenous United States.and worth noting for the optics...
The logical conclusion of these policies is to radically reengineer the racial demographics of the United States, so not only with mass deportations, but policies that will 100% target not only undocumented people in this country, but also legal immigrants, naturalized U.S. citizens and the U.S. citizen children of undocumented people.
And as you mentioned earlier, he has been deeply influenced by white supremacist texts and websites, which I document in my book. And at the end of the day, this is not about animosity toward criminals or animosity toward people who have broken the law. It is about animus toward the notion of the United States as a multicultural and multiethnic democracy.
Trump expected to tap Marco Rubio for secretary of state - "By selecting Rubio for a key policy role, Trump may help consolidate electoral gains among Latinos and make clear that they have a place at the highest levels of his administration."
If confirmed, Rubio will likely place a much greater importance on Latin America than any previous secretary of state, said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a Rubio ally, former president of the Inter-American Development Bank and a former National Security Council aide on Latin America in the first Trump administration.because rubio will be responsible for ensuring miller's "large-scale staging grounds for removal flights" have some place to land?
"This is the time Latin America will most be on the map in the history of any U.S. presidency. It's historic. There's no other way to say it," said Claver-Carone.
speaking of optics...
What To Know About Scott Bessent: Potential Trump Treasury Pick Founded Key Square Hedge Fund - "Scott Bessent could be the first Senate-approved LGBTQ+ member in a Republican cabinet (Richard Grenell became the first openly gay acting cabinet member when Trump tapped him as the acting director of national intelligence in 2020)."
“In a certain geographic region at a certain economic level, being gay is not an issue,” Bessent told Yale Alumni Magazine in 2015. “If you had told me in 1984, when we graduated, and people were dying of AIDS, that 30 years later I’d be legally married and we would have two children via surrogacy, I wouldn’t have believed you.”you can be whoever you want to be in the GOP, as long as you donate lotsa money, bend the knee... and support fascist policy.
also btw...
Elon Musk wants to radically reshape who controls America's money supply :P
re: "Putin is neither their pal nor their employee..."
putin hints at trump kompromat? which who knows, but i think hartmann's larger point stands:
Putin's mission is to make the world safe for tyrants and autocrats. This isn't just Putin being a narcissist and it's not just Putin by the way. This is true for Erdogan. This is true for Orban. This is true for, uh, it was true for Duterte. it's now true for [Bongbong] the heir to the Marcos Dynasty who's now running the Philippines. These guys actually or at least profess to believe, and I think they actually do believe, that the old way is the best way. The old way, meaning like the last thousand years of European, Asian, Central and South American history, which is dynastic rule by very, very wealthy, very powerful individuals, keeping society stable. President Xi, I mean, he just comes right out and says it. You know democracy is messy. We don't want messy. We want stability. And so you know, I think this is where Putin is at, and I think frankly you know, probably Trump will go along with it.so can anything halt the slide into neofeudal tyranny?
Upton Sinclair and the Modern Media Campaign - "Sinclair rose to political prominence after he launched a hugely popular anti-poverty campaign."
BROOKE GLADSTONE: So in your preface, you describe Upton Sinclair as “a muckraking author, militant vegetarian, erstwhile socialist and scourge of the ruling class.” Given those descriptors, how had Sinclair won the primary for California governor in 1934, to begin with?Progressive Populism: Can Dems Counter Trump's Oligarchy with Bold Change? - "The Democratic Party must come to the realization that is now dawning across Europe that the old Blair/Macron/Clinton neoliberal consensus (low taxes, free trade, open borders, weak unions) is dead. That if its reverse, progressive populism, isn’t embraced by center-left parties, rightwing populism and oligarchy will fill that void with a vengeance (like they’re seeing across Europe — and we just saw here in last week’s election)."
GREG MITCHELL: Well, he decided he had written enough and decided to change his affiliation from Socialist and enter the Democratic primary. He led a mass movement called End Poverty in California, or EPIC, and managed to sweep the Democratic primary in a landslide with hundreds of thousands of votes and was the favorite to win in November.
BROOKE GLADSTONE: So people knew who they were voting for.
GREG MITCHELL: Oh, absolutely. He was one of the most famous authors in the world. Today we remember him mainly for “The Jungle” but at the time he was always in and out of the headlines, getting arrested, and was certainly a famous figure in, in California and, and around the country.
BROOKE GLADSTONE: As you describe it, the swiftest response to his winning the primary came from newspaper magnates like William Randolph Hearst and the Chandlers -
GREG MITCHELL: Right.
BROOKE GLADSTONE: - the family behind the Los Angeles Times, and also Hollywood.
GREG MITCHELL: Well, of course, the newspapers at that time were extremely reactionary throughout the state. They were owned by families that had a lot of money at stake. And, you know, Sinclair, bless his heart, had been one of the leading media critics of his day. We think of Sinclair today as this muckraker, like an investigative journalist or something. He was mainly a novelist, and even “The Jungle” is a novel. So what the newspapers would do is they would take some outrageous thing that a character in one of Sinclair’s novels said and would pretend that Sinclair had said it himself. So they would put it right on the front page and have him believing in free love and giving away money to everyone and hating the church. So yeah, the newspapers were in the, were in the forefront of the fight.
[just an interesting EPIC historical aside: "The EPIC movement continued after Sinclair's defeat. It "recalled a mayor, kicked out a district attorney, replaced the governor with one of our choice" between 1934 and 1938, according to Robert A. Heinlein, who by then was deputy publisher of the EPIC News. Heinlein also ran for State Assembly in Hollywood and Beverly Hills in 1938. He lost, causing him to take up science fiction writing to pay off his campaign debt."]
oh and last but not least...
Make no mistake: this Trump presidency will continue to attack abortion rights - "Trump can simply restrict abortion through federal agencies. He will soon be in control of the FDA, for example, which regulates the abortion drug mifepristone, part of a two-drug regimen that now accounts for most abortions in the United States."
but it gets, uh, weirder...
The New Pro-Life Playbook - "Under Trump, a new vision of conservative family policy is ascendant."
Pro-life groups are realizing that they need to help people imagine a world without abortion. “In that sense, it’s not simply electoral—it’s much more cultural,” he said. “They have to show that, in saying they want a world where children are welcome and parents are valued, they have to mean it.”that's the gist of it, but it leads to some surprisingly broad overlap with similar progressive policies? read the whole intriguing thing, but i think matt stoller is on point here:
[former trump official who worked on project 2025 jonathan] Berry has come to see the decline of marriage and birth rates in the U.S. largely as a function of the warped concentration of money, influence, and power among the educated élite. This has piqued the interest of some on the left, who share his belief that the economy needs an overhaul, albeit for different reasons. “I’m starting to build relationships with the hipster antitrust scene, although we disagree on plenty,” Berry said. The godfather of that scene is Matt Stoller, a former Democratic Senate staffer who writes an influential newsletter on monopolies and antitrust issues. “If you look at what is the fresh, interesting thinking, it’s all realignment right,” Stoller told me. But, in his view, people in that circle have also made mistakes that alienated potential allies, such as scapegoating immigrants, promoting conservative judges who are hostile to regulatory action, and indulging the January 6th insurrection.“It’s a different experience, when you’re actually implementing ideas and dealing with politics and fighting institutions and dealing with Congress,” he said. On family policy, “I don’t think they’ve gotten there yet.”posted by kliuless at 2:26 AM on November 13 [11 favorites]
HR9495 was drafted to just provide tax relief for Americans imprisoned or held hostage overseas.
i can think of a few high-profile recent incidents that may have inspired the idea that "tax relief for americans imprisoned overseas" has the potential for good political optics in a world where nobody has any sense of scale or priorities, but there is just no chance that the tax situations of a tiny number of americans in a very unusual situation actually inspired good-faith legislation free of other motivations. i will put aside vegetarianism and arachnophobia and eat a live spider if this bill is anything other than congresspeople vice-signalling to donors/lobbyists.
posted by busted_crayons at 2:41 AM on November 13 [3 favorites]
i can think of a few high-profile recent incidents that may have inspired the idea that "tax relief for americans imprisoned overseas" has the potential for good political optics in a world where nobody has any sense of scale or priorities, but there is just no chance that the tax situations of a tiny number of americans in a very unusual situation actually inspired good-faith legislation free of other motivations. i will put aside vegetarianism and arachnophobia and eat a live spider if this bill is anything other than congresspeople vice-signalling to donors/lobbyists.
posted by busted_crayons at 2:41 AM on November 13 [3 favorites]
Yeah, and it turns out it's a whole (half of a) bill dedicated to forgiving 46 people (sure, plus however many already released in the past four or so years, and those held in the future) nothing more than their late filing/payment fees.
And upon realizing how...small this "tax relief" is, your next thought might be: wait, that isn't something IRS phone agents already have the discretion to do, waive penalties in special circumstances?
And it turns out, yeah, they explicitly already can (though I guess "certain penalties such as the estimated tax penalty" might not have been eligible, probably under the assumption that most special circumstances wouldn't cover a full year. So I guess this half of the bill wasn't absolutely nothing, but it sure was close).
posted by nobody at 3:52 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]
And upon realizing how...small this "tax relief" is, your next thought might be: wait, that isn't something IRS phone agents already have the discretion to do, waive penalties in special circumstances?
And it turns out, yeah, they explicitly already can (though I guess "certain penalties such as the estimated tax penalty" might not have been eligible, probably under the assumption that most special circumstances wouldn't cover a full year. So I guess this half of the bill wasn't absolutely nothing, but it sure was close).
posted by nobody at 3:52 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]
Out of 213. If you don't caucus with people who aren't as pure as you you're going to be a party of just yourself.
Listen, 52 Democrats is only a fraction of the entire caucus, and all they want to do is join in the fun of criminalizing trans activism and eventually trans people altogether. Just a little bit of light pre-genocide preparations of an entire group from a large chunk of elected officials from the party supposedly here to protect the marginalized, obviously the bigger problem here is the Ardent Progressive purity police.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:15 AM on November 13 [14 favorites]
Listen, 52 Democrats is only a fraction of the entire caucus, and all they want to do is join in the fun of criminalizing trans activism and eventually trans people altogether. Just a little bit of light pre-genocide preparations of an entire group from a large chunk of elected officials from the party supposedly here to protect the marginalized, obviously the bigger problem here is the Ardent Progressive purity police.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:15 AM on November 13 [14 favorites]
With ACA subsidies set to expire in 2025, millions of Americans stand to lose health insurance
I know the republicans have taken a run at this before, but of course now they'll have all the power in the world to do it. But every extra shock after COVID moves us closer to the day the healthcare system simply collapses. That inflation they ran on? That means people don't have the extra cash for skyrocketing premiums. They'll just let coverage lapse, and stop getting their profitable knee replacements.
I keep thinking, surely no one could be this stupid--I mean, say what you will about the evils of capitalism, it does require some knowledge and planning to keep it afloat!
posted by mittens at 5:21 AM on November 13 [9 favorites]
I know the republicans have taken a run at this before, but of course now they'll have all the power in the world to do it. But every extra shock after COVID moves us closer to the day the healthcare system simply collapses. That inflation they ran on? That means people don't have the extra cash for skyrocketing premiums. They'll just let coverage lapse, and stop getting their profitable knee replacements.
I keep thinking, surely no one could be this stupid--I mean, say what you will about the evils of capitalism, it does require some knowledge and planning to keep it afloat!
posted by mittens at 5:21 AM on November 13 [9 favorites]
Why would the republicans care about the ACA lapsing? The ACA had serious faults but expanded healthcare coverage to what, 20 million people and saved millions of lives. The great big puzzle of American politics is why this didn’t lead to sustained democratic wins.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:54 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:54 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]
The ACA has made a difference in many lives but it’s still more stupid insurance from insurance companies, truly evil ghouls of corporations. Combine how much insurance companies fuck you at every opportunity with a more than a decade of sustained anti ACA propaganda and it’s not a surprise that voters don’t immediately think of the democrats positively because of it. And, I asked someone in my life who relies on an ACA subsidized healthcare plan why they voted for trump and she said: he didn’t take it away last time, why would he now. It doesn’t matter that the only reason it survived was because John McCain had a bizarre moment of compassion, nobody who isn’t a politics nerd remembers those kind of details. They just know trump was already president and all the scary things didn’t happen (at least, to them, directly)
posted by dis_integration at 6:30 AM on November 13 [9 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 6:30 AM on November 13 [9 favorites]
I’m sure had she lost her coverage she would’ve been able to convince herself it wasn’t Trump’s fault.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:39 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]
posted by girlmightlive at 6:39 AM on November 13 [2 favorites]
it’s still more stupid insurance from insurance companies,
It was also quite a lot more Medicaid, but people rarely credit that.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:46 AM on November 13 [8 favorites]
It was also quite a lot more Medicaid, but people rarely credit that.
posted by BungaDunga at 6:46 AM on November 13 [8 favorites]
(Clarification, just in case, though maybe everyone gets this already and a couple earlier comments were just being a bit loose with their language: the ACA itself isn't set to automatically lapse, nor are the base-level subsidies its been providing since it was enacted! Set to lapse automatically are just the Inflation Reduction Act's expanded subsidies. Which might make people earning above 4x the federal poverty limit the maddest, as their thousands in subsidies (limiting premiums to 8.5% of their annual income) will disappear entirely. Those earning below 4x the poverty limit can apparently expect to pay between $300 to $860 more per year. [Source: white house paper, upon extending those expansions last time.] And the result of both will probably be a whole lot of people dropping their insurance. So it's bad (and stupid), but anything beyond that will at least take new legislation. I hope no one skips signing up for healthcare just because they think it's a sure thing it'll be disappearing next year!)
posted by nobody at 6:56 AM on November 13 [8 favorites]
posted by nobody at 6:56 AM on November 13 [8 favorites]
> The great big puzzle of American politics is why this didn’t lead to sustained democratic wins.
I don't think it's much of a puzzle. The ACA Medicaid expansion helped a lot of people, but the exchanges were a Rube Goldberg machine. Many of the people Medicaid expansion helped are politically predisposed to take benefits themselves but hate them going to others, while the people the exchanges helped probably didn't see that help as directly as they would have in a single payer system. Sometimes you have to accept policy that does the right thing but doesn't give you the political boost you might want (see also Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan).
posted by tonycpsu at 6:59 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]
I don't think it's much of a puzzle. The ACA Medicaid expansion helped a lot of people, but the exchanges were a Rube Goldberg machine. Many of the people Medicaid expansion helped are politically predisposed to take benefits themselves but hate them going to others, while the people the exchanges helped probably didn't see that help as directly as they would have in a single payer system. Sometimes you have to accept policy that does the right thing but doesn't give you the political boost you might want (see also Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan).
posted by tonycpsu at 6:59 AM on November 13 [1 favorite]
Is that just denialism on my/our part? Or did we really just overhype Trump's threat?
We're all steeped in American civil religion. I think it's just hard to really believe in the end of the Republic even if you think he's probably going to cause it.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:10 AM on November 13 [7 favorites]
We're all steeped in American civil religion. I think it's just hard to really believe in the end of the Republic even if you think he's probably going to cause it.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:10 AM on November 13 [7 favorites]
A short thread from Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò on organizing, which concludes
if i've learned one thing from doing union stuff while also doing other forms of organizing, it's that you're better off with people you disagree with who are nevertheless trying to do the same thing as you than with people you agree with who aren't trying to do anythingposted by audi alteram partem at 8:00 AM on November 13 [16 favorites]
ACA plans with decent coverage are extremely expensive. A family in a HCOL area that doesn't get subsidies will pay on the order of $50,000 a year between premiums, co-pays and deductibles, with coverage that is still not all that great. What people don't remember is that before the ACAs, a lot of families simply couldn't get health insurance on the private market at all, and so went uninsured, so you're comparing an expensive something to a nothing.
posted by MattD at 8:02 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]
posted by MattD at 8:02 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]
I just plugged some numbers into CoveredCalifornia and for a family of 4 making $150,000 income, a Silver plan is $1100/ month. Is there really an additional $3k/ month in costs above that? Or is California special?
posted by soylent00FF00 at 8:41 AM on November 13
posted by soylent00FF00 at 8:41 AM on November 13
will throw this country into a recession so deep that nobody will forget who is to blame.
I'm sure you're right about the recession.
I'm sure you're wrong about people forgetting who is to blame. They'll blame the Democrats.
MisantropicPainforest
Because what the ACA got people was expanded access to the hellscape that is the American health insurance industry rather than healthcare.
Don't get me wrong, it's better than nothing, but that's a really low bar to clear and isn't going to get many people cheering. Yay, no poor people can ALSO pay high premiums for "health insurance" that denies everything and has ten zillion dollar deductables and copays so you avoid going to the doctor becuase it costs too much!
posted by sotonohito at 8:47 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]
I'm sure you're right about the recession.
I'm sure you're wrong about people forgetting who is to blame. They'll blame the Democrats.
MisantropicPainforest
Because what the ACA got people was expanded access to the hellscape that is the American health insurance industry rather than healthcare.
Don't get me wrong, it's better than nothing, but that's a really low bar to clear and isn't going to get many people cheering. Yay, no poor people can ALSO pay high premiums for "health insurance" that denies everything and has ten zillion dollar deductables and copays so you avoid going to the doctor becuase it costs too much!
posted by sotonohito at 8:47 AM on November 13 [5 favorites]
I live in NY State, have health insurance through the ACA. I am self employed. I pay around $120/month. For the first time in 10 years I have needed medical care for several things, and the ACA has saved my ass. Maybe it is because in NY State we pay higher taxes we get better social services? I don't know because I have never done a deep dive into the economics of it state by state.
(Also, thanks to all who have been posting & commenting during this epic upheaval. Once again MF has been my go to source for attempting to understand the un-understandable)
posted by tarantula at 8:57 AM on November 13 [4 favorites]
(Also, thanks to all who have been posting & commenting during this epic upheaval. Once again MF has been my go to source for attempting to understand the un-understandable)
posted by tarantula at 8:57 AM on November 13 [4 favorites]
Yay, no poor people can ALSO pay high premiums for "health insurance" that denies everything and has ten zillion dollar deductables and copays so you avoid going to the doctor becuase it costs too much!
Millions of poor people became eligible for Medicaid thanks to the ACA. The ACA is both things. It should have been better.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:17 AM on November 13 [3 favorites]
Millions of poor people became eligible for Medicaid thanks to the ACA. The ACA is both things. It should have been better.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:17 AM on November 13 [3 favorites]
The ACA is prohibitively expensive if you aren't making $150,000 a year and it's more expensive if you are young. My cost for the ACA last fall was around $150 a month BUT I live in a Medicaid expanded state and I'm over 60. My daughter, 40, would have paid $350 a month for the same plan. She cannot afford that. In a non medicaid expanded state, I'm pretty sure it would have been a lot more. We make about the same - around $60K a year, AKA the dreaded middle: too much for benefits, too little to afford anything. And, add on to that this joy: we live in a rural area and there is ONE ACA plan here for us that works with the majority of the local providers and hospitals. One. Any other of the plans that shinily appear on marketplace might work with one or two providers but in an emergency, you'd be shit out of luck real fast.
Most people I know just opt to go without or hope they can get poor enough for Oregon Health Plan, which is also itself quietly turning into health insurance, not health care. Last fall when I ended up back on OHP for a few months - turns out I was eligible, so I didn't take the ACA plan - I found out that they now routinely deny things and act as horrible gatekeepers just like the private insurance does. American healthcare is fundamentally broken.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:38 AM on November 13 [11 favorites]
Most people I know just opt to go without or hope they can get poor enough for Oregon Health Plan, which is also itself quietly turning into health insurance, not health care. Last fall when I ended up back on OHP for a few months - turns out I was eligible, so I didn't take the ACA plan - I found out that they now routinely deny things and act as horrible gatekeepers just like the private insurance does. American healthcare is fundamentally broken.
posted by mygothlaundry at 9:38 AM on November 13 [11 favorites]
Thank God for copying and pasting, because there's no way I would have been able to type these words, but Trump picks far-right congressman Matt Gaetz as attorney general
posted by Rykey at 12:47 PM on November 13 [3 favorites]
posted by Rykey at 12:47 PM on November 13 [3 favorites]
Holy shit. That would be funny if it wasn't so horrifying.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 12:52 PM on November 13 [2 favorites]
posted by kittens for breakfast at 12:52 PM on November 13 [2 favorites]
My first reaction to the Gaetz pick was “we’re all doomed” until I recalled that he is a complete fucking incompetent, so much so that all he will be able to do is bluster and chase ghosts.
Obviously he’ll end the investigations into Trump and shut down any potential future investigation, but I’ve already assumed that would happen regardless of pick.
posted by Room 101 at 12:53 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
Obviously he’ll end the investigations into Trump and shut down any potential future investigation, but I’ve already assumed that would happen regardless of pick.
posted by Room 101 at 12:53 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
Russian asset Tulsi Gabbard as DNI might be an even more dangerous appointment than Gaetz, at least for those out of Gaetz's groping range.
posted by tonycpsu at 1:14 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 1:14 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]
The problem is not so much the actual assholes at the top as it is the Heritage Foundation schemers with a copy of Project 2025 drafting orders for the idiot to sign. The person at the top is a clown meant to distract you from the power behind the throne.
Plus the possibility they'll get to fire all the real federal workers and go back to the spoils/system to put Trump cultists into all the staff positions.
posted by sotonohito at 1:31 PM on November 13 [10 favorites]
Plus the possibility they'll get to fire all the real federal workers and go back to the spoils/system to put Trump cultists into all the staff positions.
posted by sotonohito at 1:31 PM on November 13 [10 favorites]
Matt Gaetz? Kristi Noem? Tulsa Gabbard? Doge? This is government by trolling.
posted by y2karl at 1:33 PM on November 13 [13 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 1:33 PM on November 13 [13 favorites]
(don't let noem find out about doge)
posted by mittens at 1:43 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
posted by mittens at 1:43 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
The clown car is a clown yacht at this point.
posted by tonycpsu at 1:46 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]
posted by tonycpsu at 1:46 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]
In the words of 'Logan Roy', "I love you but you're not serious people."
(this... is difficult to take as not a joke)
posted by From Bklyn at 2:09 PM on November 13 [2 favorites]
(this... is difficult to take as not a joke)
posted by From Bklyn at 2:09 PM on November 13 [2 favorites]
"Who the fuck is this guy?"
This is a reality show that nobody thought would get a second season.
(It is also, somehow, simultaneously a well-oiled Project 2025 machine, operated by a bunch of people who never, ever want to be on tv.)
posted by box at 2:10 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]
This is a reality show that nobody thought would get a second season.
(It is also, somehow, simultaneously a well-oiled Project 2025 machine, operated by a bunch of people who never, ever want to be on tv.)
posted by box at 2:10 PM on November 13 [6 favorites]
NBC: At one point during the meeting, Trump joked about Musk’s continued presence in his orbit, saying, “Elon won’t go home. I can’t get rid of him.”
Well, Musk's dead.
posted by mittens at 2:15 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
Well, Musk's dead.
posted by mittens at 2:15 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
The democrats, not content to let Trump be the only one making truly terrible personnel choices: Axelrod pushes for Rahm Emanuel as DNC chair.
posted by mittens at 2:34 PM on November 13 [9 favorites]
posted by mittens at 2:34 PM on November 13 [9 favorites]
Presumably that's the "see minorities are a terrible idea and the Democratsneed to rush right" faction pushing for their guy to take over since the "radicals" lost to Trump?
posted by sotonohito at 2:55 PM on November 13 [1 favorite]
posted by sotonohito at 2:55 PM on November 13 [1 favorite]
Trump continues being the worst and funniest person in the world. Jfc what a timeline.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:12 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:12 PM on November 13 [5 favorites]
Alexandra Petri (WaPo)'s job gets harder and harder, and yet she continues.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:27 PM on November 13 [15 favorites]
Breaking! Donald Trump has picked a ventriloquist’s cursed doll (previously investigated for sex trafficking) as attorney general! He’ll also be in charge of the FBI!...yeah, this is why I didn't want to discuss cabinet picks. My therapist now says she's avoiding all news, and I think she has a point.
BREAKING! A semi-automatic rifle who HATES women will be replacing the Education Department entirely. Better luck next time, schoolchildren!
I Don’t Know has stopped playing third base in an Abbott and Costello sketch and is now going to be the director of national intelligence.
A Boot Stepping On A Human Face is now going to be in charge of the Department of Homeland Security! This is actually a relief; we thought it would be Richard Grenell. (Feminists, delight: the boot is a ladies’ boot!)
The Artificial Intelligence Bot Your Boss Has Decided Will Do Your Job Better Than You Because He Fundamentally Doesn’t Understand What You Do is the current front-runner to be our new secretary of commerce! But that depends on whether Elon Musk likes him or not. That Sinking Feeling Whenever You See A Cybertruck In The Wild is in contention, too, as is The Grim Sense of Resignation To The Fact That You’re Going To Have To Know And Care About What Elon Musk Thinks For The Rest of Your Life.
A Name You Hadn’t Heard In Four Years That Makes Your Whole Body Recoil is going to be the No. 1 Policy Adviser For Vengeance! Great! You’ll hear this name every day now!
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:27 PM on November 13 [15 favorites]
I'm cynically inclined to agree with the white guy thing but I think they'd do better rushing left a bit. I don't want it to have to be a white dude, it's not something I want to have to consider about a candidate but I'm afraid that the US is too sexist and racist.
(...) “The conservative wing of the party is what fucked this up,” said one Democratic insider in Texas, who spoke freely on condition of anonymity. These candidates chase political majorities based on the imagined centrist ideal, a votership that exists, however amorphously, within the data. But ...
This is right on and well put. Chasing centrists lines up with what I was taught in social studies but, and you might have a hard time believing this /s, but kind of a lot of what I was taught in social studies in particular was bullshit.
posted by VTX at 4:29 PM on November 13 [4 favorites]
(...) “The conservative wing of the party is what fucked this up,” said one Democratic insider in Texas, who spoke freely on condition of anonymity. These candidates chase political majorities based on the imagined centrist ideal, a votership that exists, however amorphously, within the data. But ...
This is right on and well put. Chasing centrists lines up with what I was taught in social studies but, and you might have a hard time believing this /s, but kind of a lot of what I was taught in social studies in particular was bullshit.
posted by VTX at 4:29 PM on November 13 [4 favorites]
The Democratic Consultants Getting Rich off the Harris Campaign
In addition to its work for Democrats, Canal Partners works for businesses and trade associations, including work that directly counters Democratic policy objectives, which may explain why it conducted its Harris work through a shell company. In 2022, it worked for a Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) front group Rare Access Action Project to help it run ads opposing the Biden administration’s policy allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices, reported journalist Andrew Perez. In 2017, it worked for Uber as the company was lobbying for permission to operate in western New York state, a policy that was opposed by unions.posted by audi alteram partem at 5:35 PM on November 13 [9 favorites]
In case you'd like to play Six Degrees of Separation with audi alteram partem's link above: The piece links out to a Prospect story from 2019 on Partnership for America’s Health Care Future (PAHCF), which mentions: "The firm recently tested attack lines on Medicare for All for Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank."
Who funds Third Way? Why, the Koch brothers, according to the Intercept.
Wait, that was a lot fewer than six degrees. But if you were wondering why everybody forgot about Medicare for All, there you go.
posted by mittens at 6:13 PM on November 13 [12 favorites]
Who funds Third Way? Why, the Koch brothers, according to the Intercept.
Wait, that was a lot fewer than six degrees. But if you were wondering why everybody forgot about Medicare for All, there you go.
posted by mittens at 6:13 PM on November 13 [12 favorites]
So, part of my internet wanderings in the cultural commentary side of things in the last couple of years kept bringing up, what has now become clear, the radicalization of younger people ("gen Z") through nostalgia for a better time (most memorable for me was the yearning over how 1990s sunlight was better when people were sharing old photos, this was in combo with a nostalgia for Tuscany-inspired home furnishings; but the fashion girlies were definitely talking about it too) and also alienation from actual more physical and social spaces where subculture and counterculture activities happen. This election seems to be becoming a focal point for this, so while the inevitable essays are on the way, this convo between Anthony Fantano and FD Signifier was interesting to me (to share it here) because apparently in the Rogan-world the Trump win means that the last election wasn't stolen (around min 15). So uh if anyone is looking for a silver lining.
posted by cendawanita at 8:51 PM on November 13 [3 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 8:51 PM on November 13 [3 favorites]
We talked a lot about inflation the past couple of weeks, and I'm not sure there's still an appetite to continue that conversation, but I wanted to share this interview in Jacobin, between Bhaskar Sunkara and economist Isabella Weber (you may remember her book How China Escaped Shock Therapy):
"It’s not enough as a progressive economist to only focus on the upstream stuff, because that’s very far removed from the everyday experience of the working class and the majority of people. I think this is exactly where Bidenomics fell flat. It was very progressive — it was ahead of Europe, for example, in terms of its upstream, new industrial policy initiatives — but it just did not do enough for the stuff that people feel immediately.
"Ironically, one of the lines of Biden’s that I rather like is when he explicitly went after trickle-down economics. He basically announced the end of trickle-down economics, which, looking at how the economic policy discourse is going in Germany, is a pretty big step forward. But if you do Bidenomics in a way where it’s all about the upstream stuff — you rebuild infrastructure, you rebuild industries, and then you have some union jobs and some demand trickle down from that — it ends up being a new version of trickle-down economics, where the trickle down doesn’t come simply from free-market movement but from state investment initiatives.
"It’s also not directly thinking about the needs of the people. What are the people’s concerns? What hardships are people going through in the middle of one of the worst crises the world has seen in decades, and how can we directly address these hardships? How can we make sure the cost-of-living crisis is not crushing the lives of millions of people? Build Back Better had a lot of that human-needs-oriented thinking. But it was dropped on the way to the IRA."
posted by mittens at 9:56 AM on November 14 [9 favorites]
"It’s not enough as a progressive economist to only focus on the upstream stuff, because that’s very far removed from the everyday experience of the working class and the majority of people. I think this is exactly where Bidenomics fell flat. It was very progressive — it was ahead of Europe, for example, in terms of its upstream, new industrial policy initiatives — but it just did not do enough for the stuff that people feel immediately.
"Ironically, one of the lines of Biden’s that I rather like is when he explicitly went after trickle-down economics. He basically announced the end of trickle-down economics, which, looking at how the economic policy discourse is going in Germany, is a pretty big step forward. But if you do Bidenomics in a way where it’s all about the upstream stuff — you rebuild infrastructure, you rebuild industries, and then you have some union jobs and some demand trickle down from that — it ends up being a new version of trickle-down economics, where the trickle down doesn’t come simply from free-market movement but from state investment initiatives.
"It’s also not directly thinking about the needs of the people. What are the people’s concerns? What hardships are people going through in the middle of one of the worst crises the world has seen in decades, and how can we directly address these hardships? How can we make sure the cost-of-living crisis is not crushing the lives of millions of people? Build Back Better had a lot of that human-needs-oriented thinking. But it was dropped on the way to the IRA."
posted by mittens at 9:56 AM on November 14 [9 favorites]
My therapist now says she's avoiding all news, and I think she has a point.
I am a fitful sleeper and used to leave my radio on our local NPR station KUOW FM overnight and listen to the BBC World Service* from midnight to 4 AM. Now even that is too horrible to listen. Now it's on our local listener supported classical station KING FM. To which I listen at Brian Eno Discreet Music volume. God help us all.
*I have an enormous vocabulary of words I had, and in some cases still have not heard spoken, and that was a bonus. Except when BBC announcers get it wrong -- which happens far more often than it should -- at which I silently and condescendingly sneer.
posted by y2karl at 2:57 PM on November 14
I am a fitful sleeper and used to leave my radio on our local NPR station KUOW FM overnight and listen to the BBC World Service* from midnight to 4 AM. Now even that is too horrible to listen. Now it's on our local listener supported classical station KING FM. To which I listen at Brian Eno Discreet Music volume. God help us all.
*I have an enormous vocabulary of words I had, and in some cases still have not heard spoken, and that was a bonus. Except when BBC announcers get it wrong -- which happens far more often than it should -- at which I silently and condescendingly sneer.
posted by y2karl at 2:57 PM on November 14
but it just did not do enough for the stuff that people feel immediately.
It did for a lot of people who made less than $30k--that income bracket went +5 for Harris. If you qualified for government services, Bidenomics was generally pretty good and there were immediate benefits. It was the $30-99k income brackets that voted +5 to +8 for Trump, and they probably make up a larger portion of likely voters. The focus on the very poor made it difficult for Harris's middle class focus to ring true.
posted by brook horse at 3:24 PM on November 14 [8 favorites]
It did for a lot of people who made less than $30k--that income bracket went +5 for Harris. If you qualified for government services, Bidenomics was generally pretty good and there were immediate benefits. It was the $30-99k income brackets that voted +5 to +8 for Trump, and they probably make up a larger portion of likely voters. The focus on the very poor made it difficult for Harris's middle class focus to ring true.
posted by brook horse at 3:24 PM on November 14 [8 favorites]
Oh--there was also a lot of infrastructure for people who don't use cars. Funding to put in bike lanes, sidewalks, etc. I've seen multiple of these projects, funded by Biden, in my own city. As someone who uses a car, they might not be as noticeable to me if I didn't know so many people who can't afford one.
posted by brook horse at 4:00 PM on November 14 [5 favorites]
posted by brook horse at 4:00 PM on November 14 [5 favorites]
I think they'd do better rushing left a bit.
I'm always confused by this logic: which left leaning policies were sidelined in the name of centrism that would have lured Trump voters away? The only thing off the top of my head that both unions and Republicans endorse is curbing illegal immigration. And even then they disagree on the mechanics.
posted by pwnguin at 4:04 PM on November 14
I'm always confused by this logic: which left leaning policies were sidelined in the name of centrism that would have lured Trump voters away? The only thing off the top of my head that both unions and Republicans endorse is curbing illegal immigration. And even then they disagree on the mechanics.
posted by pwnguin at 4:04 PM on November 14
the radicalization of younger people ("gen Z") through nostalgia for a better time
cottage core, tradwives, etc isn't that far from the Nazi pastoralism of "Tomorrow Belongs to Me."
Alongside the man-o-sphere retread as youth culture. (I still can't quite process that Adin Ross got a callout in the Presidential acceptance speech courtesy of the UFC CEO.)
And then there's the 'look at what they took from us/you' meme format. And the time-travel memes featuring chad and the tradwife wojak. (I hated typing that.)
Ironic but unsurprising that Crowder and Lauren Southern were jettisoned along the way, their usefulness exhausted.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:20 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]
cottage core, tradwives, etc isn't that far from the Nazi pastoralism of "Tomorrow Belongs to Me."
Alongside the man-o-sphere retread as youth culture. (I still can't quite process that Adin Ross got a callout in the Presidential acceptance speech courtesy of the UFC CEO.)
And then there's the 'look at what they took from us/you' meme format. And the time-travel memes featuring chad and the tradwife wojak. (I hated typing that.)
Ironic but unsurprising that Crowder and Lauren Southern were jettisoned along the way, their usefulness exhausted.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:20 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]
Please someone explain why DOGE will crash and burn.
Because that's its purpose, and it will be kind of embarrassing if Musk doesn't quickly seize on that and let it atrophy (or resign from the booby hatch to spend more time hating life).
We already have the GAO and OMB.
You can tell Trump doesn't give a fuck about Musk now that he's elected and immune from criminal liability, from the very nature of his blandishments.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:32 PM on November 14 [1 favorite]
Because that's its purpose, and it will be kind of embarrassing if Musk doesn't quickly seize on that and let it atrophy (or resign from the booby hatch to spend more time hating life).
We already have the GAO and OMB.
You can tell Trump doesn't give a fuck about Musk now that he's elected and immune from criminal liability, from the very nature of his blandishments.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:32 PM on November 14 [1 favorite]
It did for a lot of people who made less than $30k--that income bracket went +5 for Harris.
Thanks, I read that disappointingly as only +5 when your life depends on it, a reminder that economic concerns are less motivating in elections than most would claim (but it sounds better than admitting to racial or gender prejudice). In election hindsight I more clearly the "cargo cult" that was spreading among conservatives who bank the markets, something evangelicals have promoted as a religion of divine credibility through wealth.
posted by Brian B. at 5:47 PM on November 14
Thanks, I read that disappointingly as only +5 when your life depends on it, a reminder that economic concerns are less motivating in elections than most would claim (but it sounds better than admitting to racial or gender prejudice). In election hindsight I more clearly the "cargo cult" that was spreading among conservatives who bank the markets, something evangelicals have promoted as a religion of divine credibility through wealth.
posted by Brian B. at 5:47 PM on November 14
a reminder that economic concerns are less motivating in elections than most would claim
I'm not sure this tracks--people who saw economic benefits from Biden were motivated to vote for Harris. People who didn't weren't, even if they were objectively better off than the $30k group (though that isn't necessarily true, given we don't know the family size or cost of living etc.).
posted by brook horse at 5:51 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]
I'm not sure this tracks--people who saw economic benefits from Biden were motivated to vote for Harris. People who didn't weren't, even if they were objectively better off than the $30k group (though that isn't necessarily true, given we don't know the family size or cost of living etc.).
posted by brook horse at 5:51 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]
I'm always confused by this logic: which left leaning policies were sidelined in the name of centrism that would have lured Trump voters away? The only thing off the top of my head that both unions and Republicans endorse is curbing illegal immigration.
Being anti-immigration is not left. Left is open borders. Being anti-immigration is one of the ways many self-proclaimed leftists have often failed at actually being left.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:52 PM on November 14 [6 favorites]
Being anti-immigration is not left. Left is open borders. Being anti-immigration is one of the ways many self-proclaimed leftists have often failed at actually being left.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:52 PM on November 14 [6 favorites]
The US Chose Fascism. Where Do We Go From Here? (Rebecca Watson (Skepchick), YouTube, 18m2s)
posted by flabdablet at 6:28 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 6:28 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]
Based on the data collected by CIRCLE, Eric Blanc: There hasn't actually been a major shift of young people to the right — this election mostly reflects a turnout collapse of young Democratic voters
When you account for turnout, Trump in '24 barely got a higher % of youth than when he lost last time
In more detail according to CIRCLE: We estimate that 42% of young voters (+/- 1%), ages 18-29, cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, a lower youth turnout than in 2020—when our early estimate put youth turnout above 50%—and approximately on par with the 2016 presidential election.
We also estimate that youth voter turnout in battleground states may have been much higher: 50% on aggregate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Young voters cast 14% of all ballots in the 2024 election, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research. While this number may be adjusted in the coming days, and other data sources may show different numbers, this 2024 youth share of the vote was also lower than in 2020 (17%) and 2016 (19%) based on the same data source.
And: Young voters favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the 2024 election by 4 points: 51% to 47%. That was a much smaller margin than young voters gave President Biden over Trump in 2020 (+25), but still by far the strongest support for Harris of any age group in this election. Only 1% of young voters backed a third-party or independent candidate, slightly lower than the 3% who did so in 2020.
There is definitely a gender gap tho: +14 Harris; +17 Trump. Racial one too - which counts for more considering the majority demographic is sizeably dominant (unlike the gender ratio which is at a close 50:50 with females having a slight edge, per me just googling that to confirm). Economic demographic seems to be in line with genpop.
Report from Georgia from last month in addition, while the state released their voters breakdown that showed voter turnout declined in the Black demographic (all else went up): ‘Now I like him’: Some Black voters in Georgia see Trump as a real option - Republicans are working to turn out more new Trump voters.
And beyond the mechanics of the election, there have been signs for two years here that Republicans could make gains with voters who used to be reliably Democratic. Kemp, who is more popular in the state than Trump, more than doubled his support with Black voters in the 2022 election, going from receiving 5 percent in his first gubernatorial bid in 2018 to 12 percent of the Black vote four years later, according to surveys conducted by the Associated Press.
“This race is between college educated and non-college educated. And in the Black community, this race is between working-class and what I call the bourgeois college-educated class,” said Shelley Wynter, a Black conservative radio host in Atlanta. “If you went to college, an HBCU, were part of the Divine Nine, you’re all in for Kamala Harris.”
But for those in the Black community who aren’t steeped in those kinds of legacy institutions, Wynter continued, there’s some degree of openness toward Trump this time around.
posted by cendawanita at 10:55 PM on November 14 [3 favorites]
When you account for turnout, Trump in '24 barely got a higher % of youth than when he lost last time
In more detail according to CIRCLE: We estimate that 42% of young voters (+/- 1%), ages 18-29, cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, a lower youth turnout than in 2020—when our early estimate put youth turnout above 50%—and approximately on par with the 2016 presidential election.
We also estimate that youth voter turnout in battleground states may have been much higher: 50% on aggregate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Young voters cast 14% of all ballots in the 2024 election, according to the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Research. While this number may be adjusted in the coming days, and other data sources may show different numbers, this 2024 youth share of the vote was also lower than in 2020 (17%) and 2016 (19%) based on the same data source.
And: Young voters favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the 2024 election by 4 points: 51% to 47%. That was a much smaller margin than young voters gave President Biden over Trump in 2020 (+25), but still by far the strongest support for Harris of any age group in this election. Only 1% of young voters backed a third-party or independent candidate, slightly lower than the 3% who did so in 2020.
There is definitely a gender gap tho: +14 Harris; +17 Trump. Racial one too - which counts for more considering the majority demographic is sizeably dominant (unlike the gender ratio which is at a close 50:50 with females having a slight edge, per me just googling that to confirm). Economic demographic seems to be in line with genpop.
Report from Georgia from last month in addition, while the state released their voters breakdown that showed voter turnout declined in the Black demographic (all else went up): ‘Now I like him’: Some Black voters in Georgia see Trump as a real option - Republicans are working to turn out more new Trump voters.
And beyond the mechanics of the election, there have been signs for two years here that Republicans could make gains with voters who used to be reliably Democratic. Kemp, who is more popular in the state than Trump, more than doubled his support with Black voters in the 2022 election, going from receiving 5 percent in his first gubernatorial bid in 2018 to 12 percent of the Black vote four years later, according to surveys conducted by the Associated Press.
“This race is between college educated and non-college educated. And in the Black community, this race is between working-class and what I call the bourgeois college-educated class,” said Shelley Wynter, a Black conservative radio host in Atlanta. “If you went to college, an HBCU, were part of the Divine Nine, you’re all in for Kamala Harris.”
But for those in the Black community who aren’t steeped in those kinds of legacy institutions, Wynter continued, there’s some degree of openness toward Trump this time around.
posted by cendawanita at 10:55 PM on November 14 [3 favorites]
Yes, the Democrats’ open endorsement of genocide opened the eyes of millions, stripping away the illusion of moral high ground they once claimed over the likes of Trump.
But this election’s defeat isn’t just about Palestine; it’s about how Palestine crystallizes a multitude of other failures: the deafening silence from elected officials confronted with the crisis of a large base of supporters, a foreign policy dictated by an insular class of imperial managers, the unchecked power of lobbying, and the entrenchment of war at the core of corporate interests. Palestine, in this sense, is a mirror—revealing the rot at the heart of American liberal politics, a rot so deep that no amount of rhetoric can cover it, including the complicity of mainstream media.
The reality is that Palestine did indeed cost the Democrats the election, though not in the crude, singular way that some might imagine. Palestine is not just a foreign policy issue; it has become emblematic of a deeper structural malaise within the Democratic Party. It speaks to an alliance that has, without remorse, shifted economic burdens onto the working class, reaping profits through the quiet violence of inflation. Palestine represents the point at which the Democrats’ distinctions from their domestic adversaries vanish, revealing a moral indistinction that is increasingly hard to ignore. And in Palestine’s fate, millions have glimpsed their own—a collective understanding that their cries for change, their demands for justice, would remain unanswered. Palestine, in this sense, is more than itself; it is a prism, reflecting a dissonance within American politics, where ideals are wielded yet rarely lived, where a rhetoric of compassion collides with the indifference of imperial pursuits.
—Liberal guilt and Palestine by Abdaljawad Omar (Mondoweiss)
posted by ftrtts at 11:46 PM on November 14 [17 favorites]
But this election’s defeat isn’t just about Palestine; it’s about how Palestine crystallizes a multitude of other failures: the deafening silence from elected officials confronted with the crisis of a large base of supporters, a foreign policy dictated by an insular class of imperial managers, the unchecked power of lobbying, and the entrenchment of war at the core of corporate interests. Palestine, in this sense, is a mirror—revealing the rot at the heart of American liberal politics, a rot so deep that no amount of rhetoric can cover it, including the complicity of mainstream media.
The reality is that Palestine did indeed cost the Democrats the election, though not in the crude, singular way that some might imagine. Palestine is not just a foreign policy issue; it has become emblematic of a deeper structural malaise within the Democratic Party. It speaks to an alliance that has, without remorse, shifted economic burdens onto the working class, reaping profits through the quiet violence of inflation. Palestine represents the point at which the Democrats’ distinctions from their domestic adversaries vanish, revealing a moral indistinction that is increasingly hard to ignore. And in Palestine’s fate, millions have glimpsed their own—a collective understanding that their cries for change, their demands for justice, would remain unanswered. Palestine, in this sense, is more than itself; it is a prism, reflecting a dissonance within American politics, where ideals are wielded yet rarely lived, where a rhetoric of compassion collides with the indifference of imperial pursuits.
—Liberal guilt and Palestine by Abdaljawad Omar (Mondoweiss)
posted by ftrtts at 11:46 PM on November 14 [17 favorites]
“This race is between college educated and non-college educated. And in the Black community, this race is between working-class and what I call the bourgeois college-educated class,” said Shelley Wynter, a Black conservative radio host in Atlanta. “If you went to college, an HBCU, were part of the Divine Nine, you’re all in for Kamala Harris.”
But for those in the Black community who aren’t steeped in those kinds of legacy institutions, Wynter continued, there’s some degree of openness toward Trump this time around.
Aah yes, be told to go to college all your life and be called bourgeois when you do so. No matter that the vast majority of black people don’t attend an HBCU.
This is another repackaging of existing as black = identity politics.
Before the election Wynter also said that Trump will get “field” and Harris will get “house.” Once again trying to pretend as if black people, who despite everything still overwhelmingly voted for Harris, aren’t working class.
posted by girlmightlive at 4:28 AM on November 15 [12 favorites]
But for those in the Black community who aren’t steeped in those kinds of legacy institutions, Wynter continued, there’s some degree of openness toward Trump this time around.
Aah yes, be told to go to college all your life and be called bourgeois when you do so. No matter that the vast majority of black people don’t attend an HBCU.
This is another repackaging of existing as black = identity politics.
Before the election Wynter also said that Trump will get “field” and Harris will get “house.” Once again trying to pretend as if black people, who despite everything still overwhelmingly voted for Harris, aren’t working class.
posted by girlmightlive at 4:28 AM on November 15 [12 favorites]
Build Back Better had a lot of that human-needs-oriented thinking. But it was dropped on the way to the IRA.
yeah, because the last neoliberal brain in the Democratic Senate Caucus killed it
posted by BungaDunga at 7:23 AM on November 15
yeah, because the last neoliberal brain in the Democratic Senate Caucus killed it
posted by BungaDunga at 7:23 AM on November 15
(1) They're both chucklefucks who don't know what they're doing
(2) The sheer fact that they keep talking about creating a DOGE instead of just appointing the two chucklefucks to OMB implies an additional shrek-onion-layer of not knowing what they're doing
They're been appointed to a two-man kiddie table, and told that their very smart ideas will be taken very seriously just as soon as they get them all written down with these nice crayons.
That doesn't mean Trump won't find a way to gut the federal workforce, but it's imho it's going to be in the name of personal loyalty, not "government efficiency."
posted by BungaDunga at 7:26 AM on November 15 [4 favorites]
(2) The sheer fact that they keep talking about creating a DOGE instead of just appointing the two chucklefucks to OMB implies an additional shrek-onion-layer of not knowing what they're doing
They're been appointed to a two-man kiddie table, and told that their very smart ideas will be taken very seriously just as soon as they get them all written down with these nice crayons.
That doesn't mean Trump won't find a way to gut the federal workforce, but it's imho it's going to be in the name of personal loyalty, not "government efficiency."
posted by BungaDunga at 7:26 AM on November 15 [4 favorites]
Re the ideological movement of the Democrats, I must recommend jeffburges' recent post about predistribution versus redistribution, which examines the ongoing alignment of Dems along the lines of education.
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 7:37 AM on November 15 [1 favorite]
posted by a faded photo of their beloved at 7:37 AM on November 15 [1 favorite]
Everyone with a funding stream has a need to spin the reasons in their favor, on any issue. It ends up looking like a medieval medical diagnosis. It's more productive to assume that too many people were led to believe it didn't matter, then excused their lack of character to pollsters. If a voter's choice made no sense to a rational person who thinks analytically, then one may assume the voter fell for the lies and promises, rather than being analytical. Reading voter actions as true intent means nobody has to move right or left on anything because nobody needs to vote for dogma and become obsessed with purity and credulity. Opposition candidates need to inspire a vote for the big picture of well-being down the road, and against a narrow view. It is essentially reminding voters of past efforts to get where we are, which most people consider to be normal and not hard won. Trump's campaign slogan is about going backwards, so it was fair game to credit them for every evil we have since defeated, including polio and the Nazi state.
Being anti-immigration is not left. Left is open borders. Being anti-immigration is one of the ways many self-proclaimed leftists have often failed at actually being left.
Or the left failed them. I note that Bernie Sanders was not for open borders and gave his reasons, and Karl Marx warned of immigration exploitation and ethnic divisions that favored the ruling class. In other words, nuanced. However, the idea of open borders was a founding plank of the libertarian party that worshiped Ayn Rand and other utopian platitudes (one of the reasons we have open borders on capital).
posted by Brian B. at 9:50 AM on November 15 [2 favorites]
Being anti-immigration is not left. Left is open borders. Being anti-immigration is one of the ways many self-proclaimed leftists have often failed at actually being left.
Or the left failed them. I note that Bernie Sanders was not for open borders and gave his reasons, and Karl Marx warned of immigration exploitation and ethnic divisions that favored the ruling class. In other words, nuanced. However, the idea of open borders was a founding plank of the libertarian party that worshiped Ayn Rand and other utopian platitudes (one of the reasons we have open borders on capital).
posted by Brian B. at 9:50 AM on November 15 [2 favorites]
"The pandemic, which has killed 1.2 million Americans to date—40,000 so far this year as of the week of October 12—has hardly been top of mind lately. Media has largely moved on—even if immunocompromised and vulnerable Americans cannot thanks to the still-circulating virus. COVID, far from its political branding as a mere inconvenience, has been linked to a host of serious health complications including diabetes and cardiovascular and neurological problems. But the Biden administration’s response to the worst public health crisis in a century likely played a significant role in Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In many ways, 2024 was the second COVID election." (How COVID Helped Trump Win)
posted by mittens at 5:29 PM on November 15 [2 favorites]
posted by mittens at 5:29 PM on November 15 [2 favorites]
I note that Bernie Sanders was not for open borders and gave his reasons, and Karl Marx warned of immigration exploitation and ethnic divisions that favored the ruling class. In other words, nuanced. However, the idea of open borders was a founding plank of the libertarian party that worshiped Ayn Rand and other utopian platitudes (one of the reasons we have open borders on capital).
My neighbors with less than great immigration status under the current administration's less than great immigration laws get on a bus every morning to go work under criminal health and safety conditions in chicken processing facilities. My students with less than great immigration status work in nail salons breathing acetone all day every day being supervised by someone who likes to remind them that she can have them deported if they don't behave. If their immigration was normalized, they would be less exploitable.
And the incoming administration promises to round up my neighbors and put them into camps before deporting them. I'm just not in the mood to be told that the problem is that our immigration policies aren't strict enough while people I know are being treated like garbage in this society to keep it afloat and will soon be treated like garbage on their way out of the country.
Not relitigating 2016 or 2020, but I am clearly on record here many times complaining about the self-proclaimed "left" being far to the right on immigration and choosing my candidates accordingly.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:29 AM on November 16 [13 favorites]
My neighbors with less than great immigration status under the current administration's less than great immigration laws get on a bus every morning to go work under criminal health and safety conditions in chicken processing facilities. My students with less than great immigration status work in nail salons breathing acetone all day every day being supervised by someone who likes to remind them that she can have them deported if they don't behave. If their immigration was normalized, they would be less exploitable.
And the incoming administration promises to round up my neighbors and put them into camps before deporting them. I'm just not in the mood to be told that the problem is that our immigration policies aren't strict enough while people I know are being treated like garbage in this society to keep it afloat and will soon be treated like garbage on their way out of the country.
Not relitigating 2016 or 2020, but I am clearly on record here many times complaining about the self-proclaimed "left" being far to the right on immigration and choosing my candidates accordingly.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:29 AM on November 16 [13 favorites]
If their immigration was normalized, they would be less exploitable.
It doesn't follow from the grim picture you painted, because open borders means just that (not "normalized"), and there would many more in the same predicament. Your choice to declare the "left" synonymous with open borders is not true, and is a caricature of the left by the far right.
posted by Brian B. at 8:07 AM on November 16 [1 favorite]
It doesn't follow from the grim picture you painted, because open borders means just that (not "normalized"), and there would many more in the same predicament. Your choice to declare the "left" synonymous with open borders is not true, and is a caricature of the left by the far right.
posted by Brian B. at 8:07 AM on November 16 [1 favorite]
All I want is for my neighbors with DACA and Temporary Protected Status to have fully normalized rights in the US and a pathway to citizenship. All I want is for people who enter without documentation and then request asylum to not be treated like garbage and indeed to have have their Geneva Convention Rights and their rights under existing US law respected and to be welcomed into our country with open arms, as our laws require, instead of treating them like criminals. And all I'm hearing from an awful lot of people across the political spectrum is that somehow asking for those pretty basic human rights is untenable, ridiculous, etc.
And if basic human rights is ridiculous, why the fuck not ask for open borders, and then we can compromise to get basic human rights? I thought that was how we made progress? But fine, call me names. I don't care anymore. Trump and his goons are coming for my fucking neighbors.
posted by hydropsyche at 10:40 AM on November 16 [7 favorites]
And if basic human rights is ridiculous, why the fuck not ask for open borders, and then we can compromise to get basic human rights? I thought that was how we made progress? But fine, call me names. I don't care anymore. Trump and his goons are coming for my fucking neighbors.
posted by hydropsyche at 10:40 AM on November 16 [7 favorites]
Public service announcement: as of today, you shouldn't say or write that "a majority of Americans voted for Donald Trump". A plurality voted for Trump.
Harris 73,794,005 (48.23%)
Trump 76,464,848 (49.97%)
So much for his "massive mandate".
posted by rory at 10:59 AM on November 16 [11 favorites]
Harris 73,794,005 (48.23%)
Trump 76,464,848 (49.97%)
So much for his "massive mandate".
posted by rory at 10:59 AM on November 16 [11 favorites]
And if basic human rights is ridiculous, why the fuck not ask for open borders, and then we can compromise to get basic human rights?
Because Trump already ran and won against open borders when none of his opponents proposed it. It was built into his lying campaign strategy. It raised the specter of a left unable to govern because they care more about those who want to live in the US than someone already here and who votes on concerns of employment, housing and inflation. Such issues don't lend to compromise if they are seen as betrayal. Better to have a sound policy and not play a poker game with an election. I concede that "open borders" is mostly represented on the charitable Catholic left, but they are far to the right on other left issues, especially reproductive rights.
posted by Brian B. at 11:02 AM on November 16
Because Trump already ran and won against open borders when none of his opponents proposed it. It was built into his lying campaign strategy. It raised the specter of a left unable to govern because they care more about those who want to live in the US than someone already here and who votes on concerns of employment, housing and inflation. Such issues don't lend to compromise if they are seen as betrayal. Better to have a sound policy and not play a poker game with an election. I concede that "open borders" is mostly represented on the charitable Catholic left, but they are far to the right on other left issues, especially reproductive rights.
posted by Brian B. at 11:02 AM on November 16
Well Biden never managed to have a sound border policy because he kept turning away and detaining asylum seekers in violation of the Geneva Convention and US law and because he kept trying to compromise with people who will not shut up until the border is closed. And for some reason we have to compromise with them because otherwise nice white people clutch their pearls.
For the record, and my 20+ years posting here back that up, I'm not Catholic and I'm in favor of abortion any time someone wants one because it's a fucking medical procedure and none of anyone else's business. And I know you're going to tell me I'm not supposed to say that either because that, too, makes nice white people clutch their pearls.
posted by hydropsyche at 12:48 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]
For the record, and my 20+ years posting here back that up, I'm not Catholic and I'm in favor of abortion any time someone wants one because it's a fucking medical procedure and none of anyone else's business. And I know you're going to tell me I'm not supposed to say that either because that, too, makes nice white people clutch their pearls.
posted by hydropsyche at 12:48 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]
Your choice to declare the "left" synonymous with open borders is not true, and is a caricature of the left by the far right.
Speaking as one of the few actual leftists on this site, while "open borders" per se isn't the only possible leftist position, the position that one way or another there should be free movement of labor is, in fact, fundamental. If you don't consider that to be a fundamental principle, you're not, in fact, on the Left.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:00 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]
Speaking as one of the few actual leftists on this site, while "open borders" per se isn't the only possible leftist position, the position that one way or another there should be free movement of labor is, in fact, fundamental. If you don't consider that to be a fundamental principle, you're not, in fact, on the Left.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:00 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]
(the other side of that of course is capital controls, which usually apply on the national scale, but given what we've seen with walmart and then the various dollar stores hollowing out local economies, we should probably introduce a lot of friction there as well.)
(wait, was this the wishlist for the next campaign thread?)
posted by mittens at 4:42 PM on November 16 [1 favorite]
(wait, was this the wishlist for the next campaign thread?)
posted by mittens at 4:42 PM on November 16 [1 favorite]
there should be free movement of labor
This is fundamental to all free market economics, meaning to quit or change jobs or professions in the labor market, not really a left concept. Actual leftist economies who practice free exit and entry might not exist, but I will ask chatGPT when I find a minute.
posted by Brian B. at 4:50 PM on November 16
This is fundamental to all free market economics, meaning to quit or change jobs or professions in the labor market, not really a left concept. Actual leftist economies who practice free exit and entry might not exist, but I will ask chatGPT when I find a minute.
posted by Brian B. at 4:50 PM on November 16
Speaking as one of the few actual leftists on this site
Please speak for yourself, not for other site members.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 5:21 PM on November 16 [5 favorites]
Please speak for yourself, not for other site members.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 5:21 PM on November 16 [5 favorites]
Please don't turn this into a pissing contest about who the "real" leftists are. May as well go ahead and define who "real" Americans are while you're at it.
Just describe how you think the border should function or exactly what you mean when you say "open border".
The idea that our borders should be completely open with no control whatsoever is, to me, ridiculous.
I think people should still have to enter the US and get a stamp on their passport, the same kind of controls to try and keep dangerous or harmful plants and such out just like when I've visited any other country.
I just think that the requirement to get a visa should simply be "I want one" and offer to issue them a SSN if they plan to work while they're here with as much staffing and infrastructure to do it all quickly and conveniently. I'd probably still have folks claim asylum if they need to just so the government knows that person will probably need some extra support.
Some people might consider that an open border with some reasonable restrictions.
posted by VTX at 5:46 PM on November 16 [6 favorites]
Just describe how you think the border should function or exactly what you mean when you say "open border".
The idea that our borders should be completely open with no control whatsoever is, to me, ridiculous.
I think people should still have to enter the US and get a stamp on their passport, the same kind of controls to try and keep dangerous or harmful plants and such out just like when I've visited any other country.
I just think that the requirement to get a visa should simply be "I want one" and offer to issue them a SSN if they plan to work while they're here with as much staffing and infrastructure to do it all quickly and conveniently. I'd probably still have folks claim asylum if they need to just so the government knows that person will probably need some extra support.
Some people might consider that an open border with some reasonable restrictions.
posted by VTX at 5:46 PM on November 16 [6 favorites]
I will ask chatGPT when I find a minute
While you're at it, ask it what weighs the same as a duck.
posted by flabdablet at 8:12 PM on November 16 [6 favorites]
While you're at it, ask it what weighs the same as a duck.
posted by flabdablet at 8:12 PM on November 16 [6 favorites]
I'm speaking for no one but myself, but words mean things. If you are, for instance, anti-abortion or believe that women should get married and have babies and stay home, you're not a feminist, even if you call yourself one. Likewise, if you are pro-capitalism or advocate for protectionist immigration controls, you aren't a leftist!
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:34 PM on November 16 [2 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:34 PM on November 16 [2 favorites]
words mean things
Hate to break it to you, but a plurality of Americans has recently decided that this is not the case.
posted by flabdablet at 8:44 PM on November 16 [3 favorites]
Hate to break it to you, but a plurality of Americans has recently decided that this is not the case.
posted by flabdablet at 8:44 PM on November 16 [3 favorites]
In all seriousness, though, big-L Left is one of those words that cannot actually be relied upon to mean the same thing to the person who uses it and those they're addressing it to, so getting into a back and forth about whose interpretations of its edge cases are correct is probably not useful.
posted by flabdablet at 8:58 PM on November 16 [8 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 8:58 PM on November 16 [8 favorites]
if you are pro-capitalism
Let me stop you right there because the word you're using for "capitalism" implies that any regulation of free markets is not capitalism but that isn't the case. Certain people have worked hard to make capitalism synonymous with Laissez-faire economics but it doesn't have to be.
If it were up to me, I'd regulate capitalism so hard it'd be nearly indistinguishable from socialism. I'm not going to get into the hows and whys of what that would like. I consider that pretty leftist and my very hardcore leftist friend agrees!
Words mean things so let's all please make sure that our words mean the same thing. 'Cause I'll tell ya, if two people use the same word to mean two slightly different things, it could cause a lot of friction with their discussion, ya know?
It seems this thread is starting to outlive it's usefulness so I'm going to bow out here but please don't argue about who the "real leftists" are, it's a useless waste of time. We're all on the same side here.
posted by VTX at 9:22 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]
Let me stop you right there because the word you're using for "capitalism" implies that any regulation of free markets is not capitalism but that isn't the case. Certain people have worked hard to make capitalism synonymous with Laissez-faire economics but it doesn't have to be.
If it were up to me, I'd regulate capitalism so hard it'd be nearly indistinguishable from socialism. I'm not going to get into the hows and whys of what that would like. I consider that pretty leftist and my very hardcore leftist friend agrees!
Words mean things so let's all please make sure that our words mean the same thing. 'Cause I'll tell ya, if two people use the same word to mean two slightly different things, it could cause a lot of friction with their discussion, ya know?
It seems this thread is starting to outlive it's usefulness so I'm going to bow out here but please don't argue about who the "real leftists" are, it's a useless waste of time. We're all on the same side here.
posted by VTX at 9:22 PM on November 16 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Once again, I'm going to ask people to back off on arguments about who is or isn't a real leftist, especially in the sense of telling other people what they are/aren't. Just speak for yourself. It's fine to say, as a leftist, I think X, and leave it at that, without making declarations of who here does not meet your personal criteria. Adrienneleigh, I'll ask you in particular to avoid this.
posted by taz (staff) at 9:30 PM on November 16 [2 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 9:30 PM on November 16 [2 favorites]
Is that just denialism on my/our part? Or did we really just overhype Trump's threat?
I think it's more that American exceptionalism allowed us to oversimplify Trump's threat in ways that aren't actually helpful.
Those who believe in Democracy Will Save Us, couldn't conceive of a world where democracy still exists, it just sucks for people. So people thought that for Trump to do a lot of fucked up things, he would need to destroy democracy first, while ignoring that many, many fucked up things have been done throughout the years that democracy still existed.
Trump is still a threat; but he can be a threat with elections continuing. He can hollow out institutions without closing down elections.
posted by corb at 9:53 PM on November 16 [12 favorites]
I think it's more that American exceptionalism allowed us to oversimplify Trump's threat in ways that aren't actually helpful.
Those who believe in Democracy Will Save Us, couldn't conceive of a world where democracy still exists, it just sucks for people. So people thought that for Trump to do a lot of fucked up things, he would need to destroy democracy first, while ignoring that many, many fucked up things have been done throughout the years that democracy still existed.
Trump is still a threat; but he can be a threat with elections continuing. He can hollow out institutions without closing down elections.
posted by corb at 9:53 PM on November 16 [12 favorites]
The most comprehensive leftist vision of open borders that I've encountered comes from John Washington, who wrote the book Imagining a World of Open Borders (2024, Haymarket Books). Here's a good synopsis of the book (by Jake Romm, previously). Washington was also a guest on The Last Born in the Wilderness podcast:
posted by ftrtts at 12:56 AM on November 17 [5 favorites]
I think we need to take the term ["open borders"] back. This is not something we should shy away from. The left has done a really bad job in messaging along the border for decades, for at least as long as I've been covering it and going back in history too. The left really hasn't articulated a positive vision for what they want with immigration. They have been defensive and sometimes very effectively critical of some prior administrations. People were rightfully up in arms during the Trump administration about the worst practices that he was implementing. The Muslim ban— people stormed the airports, this is not okay, we do not stand for this. Family separation— international outrage, rightfully so. Okay. But you can decry the worst tactics of Trump or whoever is in office and say, "that's not good," but what is your vision? What do you actually want? Taking a defensive posture puts you in a weak position.Somebody mentioned plants. His book also has a chapter on ecology. It touches on a lot of different things but he also mentions an ecological argument for open borders you might find interesting:
[...]
One obvious model is the United States of America. We have an incredibly different, diverse array of cultures, of languages, of laws, of cuisines. You go from Texas to Washington State to Illinois to Maine and you will cross many different types of boundaries. Yet the presumption is that you can do it. You have to get through some bureaucratic red tape and it's sort of annoying but you can do it. Those places have held on to their culture, and if they haven't, it's not because of migration.
That half of the story is popularly understood: the world— human and non—is on the move. What is less often acknowledged is the biological necessity of that movement. “Migration’s ecological function extends beyond the survival of the migrant itself,” writes science journalist Sonia Shah in her book The Next Great Migration. “Wild migrants build the botanical scaffolding of entire ecosystems.” Besides spreading pollen and seeds—upon which the survival of many plants and animals depend—migrants also transport genes, thus delivering and extending genetic diversity.(Sonia Shah's book, mentioned above, also looks interesting, but this post is long enough.)
We are only beginning to understand the importance of “movement ecology”—that ecosystems are not static or closed, but open and always in flux; that migration is not only a human fact but a biological one. But this understanding of migration’s critical import—whether broadly biological or specifically human—has been a long time coming.
The idea that certain people or species belong only in certain places, that they are tied to their territory, has a deep history in Western culture. According to that conception, Shah writes, “Migration is by necessity a catastrophe because it violates the natural order.” This so-called natural order is actually a construct that has been buoyed for millennia by a broad coalition of theologians, scientists, politicians, and other ideologically inflected cavillers. As for the word “migrant,” it didn’t even appear in the English language until the seventeenth century—when it was coined by the English polymath Thomas Browne—and it took another hundred years before it was applied to humans. The presumption and enforcement of stasis—people rooted to a place, and a place inherent to a people—symbiotically melded with concepts around racism and white supremacy. One stalwart migrant-denialist (not an immigration re-strictionist but an actual denier of the idea that, historically, people or animals migrated) was Swedish-born naturalist Carl Linnaeus, most famous for formalizing binomial nomenclature, the modern system of classifying organisms as, for example, Homo sapiens or Canis lupus.”
posted by ftrtts at 12:56 AM on November 17 [5 favorites]
A small correction: I described that last excerpt as an "ecological argument for open borders" but it's more accurate to call it scientific and historical context for the idea that migration necessarily opposes a "natural order."
posted by ftrtts at 1:08 AM on November 17 [2 favorites]
posted by ftrtts at 1:08 AM on November 17 [2 favorites]
We're all on the same side here.
as a general matter (i.e. unrelated to the content of your comments or anyone else's comments), this is actually a pretty unhelpful sentiment to express, at least at this low level of specificity. exactly because ideals are different from concrete goals, and exactly because the menu of immediate short-term political goals shifts frequently, and we are more constrained in terms of what we can achieve at any moment than in what we can aim for, we will most probably find ourselves sharing immediate-term goals and entering into temporary alliances with people with whom we are not in some durable sense "on the same side", if we're engaged in political activity (and if we're just engaged in a discussion, the analogous thing is true: we'll often agree on specifics with people with whom we are not in some general sense "on the same side").
in fact, "we're all on the same side" is a pretty standard manipulative sentiment with a recent vogue in the punching-left sphere (see e.g. democrats and "ceasefires"). i'm not saying this is what you're doing, but i would suggest that it's always better to say something like: "among available options, Political Goal A is optimal for people with a wide array of interests/commitments/longer-term goals, so on this particular matter we are indistinguishable and ought to cooperate on Goal A; once it is achieved, the world will be different and reality will then maybe have the expressive capacity to distinguish us." and then the other person can be like "well that's what you said last time and then you ratfucked me" and then join you or not with clear eyes.
for instance, i broadly agree with the notion of "open borders" you articulated above (record-keeping for good practical reasons, no restrictions) and i broadly think you're oversimplifying (at least) the relationship between "regulation" and "capitalism", possibly to the point where I'd say we are likely to have very different ideas about what economic arrangements are ultimately desirable. but it seems very probable that we'd exercise our tiny amounts of actual political agency in this current moment in pretty similar ways, which is not the same as being "on the same side" in some broad sense but which is more practically important in any case.
and on most things the implementation matters (along with who's proposing to implement it) so much that it's hard to say in advance what one would really unequivocally support. like i agree with what i'm pretty sure is the sentiment behind "words have meanings" (namely: can right-wing and centre-right and liberal american political formations please stop gaslighting everyone on earth by stretching the term "left" into something absolutely unrecognisable, in much the same way far-right american political formations do when they try to call kamala harris of all people a communist). but at a more literal level: words don't have meanings until they're backed up with paragraphs or, better, observable consequences, to disambiguate/clarify.
posted by busted_crayons at 6:00 AM on November 17 [6 favorites]
as a general matter (i.e. unrelated to the content of your comments or anyone else's comments), this is actually a pretty unhelpful sentiment to express, at least at this low level of specificity. exactly because ideals are different from concrete goals, and exactly because the menu of immediate short-term political goals shifts frequently, and we are more constrained in terms of what we can achieve at any moment than in what we can aim for, we will most probably find ourselves sharing immediate-term goals and entering into temporary alliances with people with whom we are not in some durable sense "on the same side", if we're engaged in political activity (and if we're just engaged in a discussion, the analogous thing is true: we'll often agree on specifics with people with whom we are not in some general sense "on the same side").
in fact, "we're all on the same side" is a pretty standard manipulative sentiment with a recent vogue in the punching-left sphere (see e.g. democrats and "ceasefires"). i'm not saying this is what you're doing, but i would suggest that it's always better to say something like: "among available options, Political Goal A is optimal for people with a wide array of interests/commitments/longer-term goals, so on this particular matter we are indistinguishable and ought to cooperate on Goal A; once it is achieved, the world will be different and reality will then maybe have the expressive capacity to distinguish us." and then the other person can be like "well that's what you said last time and then you ratfucked me" and then join you or not with clear eyes.
for instance, i broadly agree with the notion of "open borders" you articulated above (record-keeping for good practical reasons, no restrictions) and i broadly think you're oversimplifying (at least) the relationship between "regulation" and "capitalism", possibly to the point where I'd say we are likely to have very different ideas about what economic arrangements are ultimately desirable. but it seems very probable that we'd exercise our tiny amounts of actual political agency in this current moment in pretty similar ways, which is not the same as being "on the same side" in some broad sense but which is more practically important in any case.
and on most things the implementation matters (along with who's proposing to implement it) so much that it's hard to say in advance what one would really unequivocally support. like i agree with what i'm pretty sure is the sentiment behind "words have meanings" (namely: can right-wing and centre-right and liberal american political formations please stop gaslighting everyone on earth by stretching the term "left" into something absolutely unrecognisable, in much the same way far-right american political formations do when they try to call kamala harris of all people a communist). but at a more literal level: words don't have meanings until they're backed up with paragraphs or, better, observable consequences, to disambiguate/clarify.
posted by busted_crayons at 6:00 AM on November 17 [6 favorites]
looks like the techbro takeover of the GOP (wall street and the military industrial complex) is almost complete?
Messy Fight for Trump's Treasury Chief Spills Into Public - "The fight over Treasury secretary has become a proxy battle over the direction of Trump's second term, with Bessent emerging as the clear favorite among some who prefer a more steady approach and Lutnick winning the backing of many of Trump's more die-hard supporters."
posted by kliuless at 8:08 AM on November 17 [8 favorites]
Messy Fight for Trump's Treasury Chief Spills Into Public - "The fight over Treasury secretary has become a proxy battle over the direction of Trump's second term, with Bessent emerging as the clear favorite among some who prefer a more steady approach and Lutnick winning the backing of many of Trump's more die-hard supporters."
Trump’s next Treasury secretary could be one of the most consequential members of his cabinet. The Treasury chief would play a central role in crafting the 2025 tax overhaul legislation. This person would also likely be a key interlocutor with foreign leaders when it comes to trade negotiations. Musk has emerged as one of Trump’s top advisers on foreign and domestic policy, particularly on the federal budget, and Musk’s relationship with this Treasury pick could go a long way toward determining how successful a budget overhaul might be.HCR helps put it all in perspective:
The push by Musk on social media coincides with a behind-the-scenes effort by the Tesla CEO and his allies to see Lutnick become Treasury secretary. In private meetings, Musk has been weighing in to Trump on who should serve in the role, according to people familiar with the matter...
Under Lutnick’s leadership, Cantor Fitzgerald has embraced cryptocurrency, which many large companies avoid, endearing him to the crypto industry and its allies. Cantor Fitzgerald manages most of the stablecoin Tether’s reserve assets, including more than $80 billion of Treasurys. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the federal government is investigating Tether for possible violations of sanctions and anti-money-laundering rules.
Lutnick’s alliance with Musk has led to an endorsement of another technology executive and Trump ally: Palmer Luckey, the founder of defense technology company Anduril Industries...
It's an ideology that I think we have seen come to the fore and that is the ideology that we need to reject democracy because democracy insists that we treat everybody equally before the law -- LGBTQ-plus people, women, minorities, ethnic and racial and religious minorities -- and that that equality flies in the face of paternalism, especially Christian paternalism run by white men. Bannon could say for example, as he was bashing black Americans or women, that he was not actually prejudiced against them or biased against them, he was actually trying to help them because they would do better in a system where they were subordinate to white male leaders.or Civilization VI: Gathering Storm Expansion...
And I think what you have seen here in this election is the coming together of the tech bros who want to get rid of the kinds of regulations that our government has put in place -- to make sure we treat people equally before the law and that you don't treat some people as if they are able to go do whatever. They want to get rid of those regulations, and they have come together with those Christian nationalists who also want to return to a white male Christian patriarchy and now with autocrats who would love simply to get rid of regulations so that they can run the economy and put money into their own pockets.
And that difference in ideology between people who believe that some people are better than others, that have the right to rule, and people like me who actually believe that people should be treated equally before the law and have a right to a say in their government is fundamentally the struggle that we've had throughout our history and that we are seeing now and that really on Tuesday looks like the democracy side lost.
posted by kliuless at 8:08 AM on November 17 [8 favorites]
Taking a defensive posture puts you in a weak position.
One takes a defensive posture if put in a weak position. It perfectly describes the right-wing reaction to immigration, which reached its tipping point based on fears. Legitimate or not they exist as fears which turn into reaction, ramping up a police state. Any change put forward that doesn't predict its reaction is naive or incompetent, which raises concerns about their core vision based on prediction. Addressing cultural identity and social contracts with appeals to dogmatic naturalism is not objective (defined by Feynman as fooling ourselves). And nature nearly rejected humanity. We are not really talking about herds grazing in one direction without fences, but people everywhere committed to homes, schools and nearby production firms, the latter threatened with relocation if workers ask for more money through collective bargaining. We now vote our destiny by qualifying who is entitled to vote by mutual agreement, same as in unions. So we need to address all concerns and look for solutions. It is predictable that the problem will always be dismissed by some as delusional, requiring only true belief in some kind of faith destiny, piggy-backing on childhood views. This kind of denial is a natural response.
posted by Brian B. at 10:04 AM on November 17
One takes a defensive posture if put in a weak position. It perfectly describes the right-wing reaction to immigration, which reached its tipping point based on fears. Legitimate or not they exist as fears which turn into reaction, ramping up a police state. Any change put forward that doesn't predict its reaction is naive or incompetent, which raises concerns about their core vision based on prediction. Addressing cultural identity and social contracts with appeals to dogmatic naturalism is not objective (defined by Feynman as fooling ourselves). And nature nearly rejected humanity. We are not really talking about herds grazing in one direction without fences, but people everywhere committed to homes, schools and nearby production firms, the latter threatened with relocation if workers ask for more money through collective bargaining. We now vote our destiny by qualifying who is entitled to vote by mutual agreement, same as in unions. So we need to address all concerns and look for solutions. It is predictable that the problem will always be dismissed by some as delusional, requiring only true belief in some kind of faith destiny, piggy-backing on childhood views. This kind of denial is a natural response.
posted by Brian B. at 10:04 AM on November 17
That's exactly why I think Biden's overall strategy of trying to stem the tide of unregulated border crossings while also drastically increasing the number of visas available for legal immigration was good policy at the present moment.
It is not what I would choose if I were dictator of the country, but it advanced my goal of allowing more immigrants while also reflecting the political reality that we find ourselves living in at the moment.
I'm not fully in the open borders camp, but I do think, and all available evidence suggests, that we can allow a hell of a lot more immigration than we do at present. The only reason I'm in favor of having some limits is that, again, all available evidence suggests that there is a limit to the rate at which we can accept immigrants, as a practical matter. We can only build housing so fast. We can only increase available services and imports so fast. As far as I'm concerned those practicalities are the only valid reason to limit immigration.
posted by wierdo at 7:04 PM on November 17
It is not what I would choose if I were dictator of the country, but it advanced my goal of allowing more immigrants while also reflecting the political reality that we find ourselves living in at the moment.
I'm not fully in the open borders camp, but I do think, and all available evidence suggests, that we can allow a hell of a lot more immigration than we do at present. The only reason I'm in favor of having some limits is that, again, all available evidence suggests that there is a limit to the rate at which we can accept immigrants, as a practical matter. We can only build housing so fast. We can only increase available services and imports so fast. As far as I'm concerned those practicalities are the only valid reason to limit immigration.
posted by wierdo at 7:04 PM on November 17
Migrants are not to blame for economic disparities or the lack of housing. You respond to fears by addressing the real problems:
posted by ftrtts at 2:16 AM on November 18 [13 favorites]
The roots of immigration enforcement in the United States were largely driven by economics. Towns and cities in Massachusetts and New York established a host of so-called poor laws beginning as early as the seventeenth century. One 1639 order from the Massachusetts Bay settlement granted townspeople the “power to determine all differences about the lawfull setting and provideing for pore persons,” as well as the “power to dispose of all insetled persons into such townes as they shall iudge to bee most fitt for the maintenance of such persons and families and the most ease of the country.” That is, they were asserting the right to push poor people out of their towns. By the mid-nineteenth century, many wealthy Americans on the East Coast, again in Massachusetts and New York, viewed incoming Irish migrants as a direct financial threat. Some saw the Irish as “leeches” and, in order to keep them out or kick them out, developed the first state-level deportation laws. The nativist anti-Irish sentiment laid the groundwork for federal immigration laws that continued the classist targeting of the poor and tacked explicitly racist and misogynist components onto such discrimination.He continues:
[...]
The economic fear was—and remains—that migrants are helping themselves to scarce resources: housing, medical care, welfare benefits, education, employment, wages. Importantly, however, neither national economies nor job markets are zero sum. In a hermetic system, resources, money, and jobs are limited: if a dollar goes to one person, it does not go to another. But that’s not how national economies work, especially as they are today so convolutedly tangled into global markets, and ever since money—the whole financial system—has been decoupled from the gold or any material standard.
[...]
A 2007 study by Giovanni Peri, a professor of economics at the University of California at Davis, found “no evidence that the inflow of immigrants over the period 1960-2004”—a period of huge immigration to the United States—“worsened the employment opportunities of natives with similar education and experience.” In fact, throughout the 1990s, Peri found that “immigration induced a 4 percent real wage increase for the average native worker.” As author and Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Riley put it, “immigrants tended to expand the economic pie, not displace native workers.”
The Rich, Not Immigrants, Are the Problem— John Washington from The Case for Open Borders
The United States is one of the least equal countries in the world, with the divide between classes growing rapidly. As of 2023, the top 10 percent of income earners in the United States have more than 48 percent of the country’s wealth. There are 540 billionaires in the United States, while about 350,000 people in the US live in extreme poverty (on less than two dollars a day) and almost twenty million people live in deep poverty (an annual income of about $12,000 dollars or less for a family of four). The COVID-19 pandemic saw the gap between super rich and poor grow even wider. As Harsha Walia put it to me: “In our struggle against capitalist austerity, we must emphasize that our enemy arrives in a limousine and not on a boat.” If one were truly worried about the national economy and wanted to help, the minority class to scapegoat (or deport) is not poor migrants but the super-rich.
posted by ftrtts at 2:16 AM on November 18 [13 favorites]
The Colorado Sun looks ahead to the 2026 race in the closely contested CD-8.
All of the potential Democratic contenders listed are, I guess, perfectly cromulent within the current Democratic framework, but that framework hasn't been a resounding success.
State Representative Manny Rutinel is a bit of an up-and-coming star in the state party; he's got great presence, though I haven't reviewed the details of his voting record.
I'd love Salazar to run in the primary. He's one of the more left voices in the state, which has caused a lot of friction. He's sort of withdrawn from politics to focus on community and legal advocacy work, so I'd be a bit surprised if he ran.
Some of the other names do good work in the urban/suburban areas of Adams County, but I don't know how they'd perform with the more rural areas of the district.
I'd prefer if Caraveo not run again, especially given her vote in favor of the bill attacking nonprofits in the name of "terrorism." The 'tough on the border' and 'works with Republicans' themes of her campaign didn't pay out, and it's time to try something new.
posted by audi alteram partem at 6:57 AM on November 18 [1 favorite]
All of the potential Democratic contenders listed are, I guess, perfectly cromulent within the current Democratic framework, but that framework hasn't been a resounding success.
State Representative Manny Rutinel is a bit of an up-and-coming star in the state party; he's got great presence, though I haven't reviewed the details of his voting record.
I'd love Salazar to run in the primary. He's one of the more left voices in the state, which has caused a lot of friction. He's sort of withdrawn from politics to focus on community and legal advocacy work, so I'd be a bit surprised if he ran.
Some of the other names do good work in the urban/suburban areas of Adams County, but I don't know how they'd perform with the more rural areas of the district.
I'd prefer if Caraveo not run again, especially given her vote in favor of the bill attacking nonprofits in the name of "terrorism." The 'tough on the border' and 'works with Republicans' themes of her campaign didn't pay out, and it's time to try something new.
posted by audi alteram partem at 6:57 AM on November 18 [1 favorite]
Per Cashman's comment, anyone in this thread who has an interest in supporting Palestinian causes in the U.S. should take action now. Contact your House member and ask them to vote "no" on H.R. 9495. It only needs enough no votes to fall below the 2/3rd threshhold. A simple, free action to help prevent a crackdown on dissent.
Per the ACLU, This bill (H.R. 9495) gives the executive branch the authority to effectively dismantle any nonprofit organization it deems to have provided "material support" to terrorist groups and the potential for abuse under this law is staggering.
House Plans a Second Vote on Legislation That Would Give the Executive Branch Unchecked Powers to Silence Dissent. Please contact your House Representative again and tell them to vote "no."
posted by JDC8 at 7:34 PM on November 18
Per the ACLU, This bill (H.R. 9495) gives the executive branch the authority to effectively dismantle any nonprofit organization it deems to have provided "material support" to terrorist groups and the potential for abuse under this law is staggering.
House Plans a Second Vote on Legislation That Would Give the Executive Branch Unchecked Powers to Silence Dissent. Please contact your House Representative again and tell them to vote "no."
posted by JDC8 at 7:34 PM on November 18
Legislation That Would Give the Executive Branch Unchecked Powers to Silence Dissent
is exactly what a nation that's just committed itself to fascist rule needs. What a thoughtful Christmas gift from the outgoing House!
posted by flabdablet at 8:11 PM on November 18 [4 favorites]
is exactly what a nation that's just committed itself to fascist rule needs. What a thoughtful Christmas gift from the outgoing House!
posted by flabdablet at 8:11 PM on November 18 [4 favorites]
The DA is suggesting that sentencing can be delayed until 2029 for Trump, so tragically my presidency-from-jail scenario seems less and less likely.
posted by corb at 7:11 PM on November 19 [4 favorites]
posted by corb at 7:11 PM on November 19 [4 favorites]
What department is Dr Phil going to be appointed to head?
posted by y2karl at 10:44 AM on November 20 [1 favorite]
posted by y2karl at 10:44 AM on November 20 [1 favorite]
Trump, or any other President, ever, ending up in prison is indeed a ridiculous fantasy. 🙄
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:25 AM on November 21 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:25 AM on November 21 [1 favorite]
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posted by whatevernot at 3:15 AM on November 5 [30 favorites]