The Fall of the House of Assad
December 8, 2024 3:06 AM Subscribe
For more than half a century, Syria has been ruled by the Assad family -- thirty years by the elder Hafez, and nearly as long by his son Bashar -- a brutally authoritarian reign that, following the Arab Spring in 2011, devolved into an even more brutal civil war that has claimed half a million lives. The deeply complicated conflict, a bloody multipolar struggle between the Russia-backed Assad regime, the US-backed opposition forces, Iran-backed Hezbollah, the Kurdish leftist enclave in Rojava (and its Turkish antagonists), various ISIS-aligned terror cells, and myriad competing tribes, warlords, and sub-groups, has been more or less static since a 2020 ceasefire. That is, until a surprise offensive late last month by the Islamist opposition group HTS triggered a pile-on from all sides that broke through Aleppo, Homs, and finally Damascus, swiftly collapsing the Ba'athist government in a matter of days and driving Assad out of power (and out of the country). The regime's stunning fall is a massive blow to Russia, reshaping the balance of power and leaving an unprecedented power vacuum as a shattered nation looks to the future.
Donation resources: UNHCR - UNICEF - Syria Relief - Karam Foundation - International Rescue Committee - Islamic Relief Worldwide - Save the Children
Donation resources: UNHCR - UNICEF - Syria Relief - Karam Foundation - International Rescue Committee - Islamic Relief Worldwide - Save the Children
(Ungated version of "unprecedented power vacuum" link above)
posted by lalochezia at 3:24 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by lalochezia at 3:24 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
I have a colleague who is Syrian, and he is doing nothing but celebrating right now. I know that the road ahead to a good government will be rough, and it is not certain they will succeed given ISIS, Iran, etc., but Assad was a monster, and his family had ruled Syria for way too long.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:42 AM on December 8, 2024 [28 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 3:42 AM on December 8, 2024 [28 favorites]
Thank you for posting this.
I beg of MeFites to include orthodox Muslim sources of information OUTSIDE the mainstream media in your gathering of information on this issue.
Some excellent examples that I've seen in the last few days:
* Abdul Wahid, The Fall of the House of Assad. If you absolutely must have Western media creds, Wahid "has been active in Muslim affairs in the UK for over 25 years. He has been published on the websites of Foreign Policy, Open Democracy, the Times Higher Educational Supplement, and Prospect Magazine."
* Muhammad Jalal of The Thinking Muslim podcast interviews political consultant Sami Hamdi.
* General backgrounder on "how Iran, Palestine, and Syria are actually linked" that pulls no punches and doesn't spare anyone: Ibrahim Abdul-Rahim, Not the Resistance You Seek.
posted by rabia.elizabeth at 4:08 AM on December 8, 2024 [34 favorites]
I beg of MeFites to include orthodox Muslim sources of information OUTSIDE the mainstream media in your gathering of information on this issue.
Some excellent examples that I've seen in the last few days:
* Abdul Wahid, The Fall of the House of Assad. If you absolutely must have Western media creds, Wahid "has been active in Muslim affairs in the UK for over 25 years. He has been published on the websites of Foreign Policy, Open Democracy, the Times Higher Educational Supplement, and Prospect Magazine."
* Muhammad Jalal of The Thinking Muslim podcast interviews political consultant Sami Hamdi.
* General backgrounder on "how Iran, Palestine, and Syria are actually linked" that pulls no punches and doesn't spare anyone: Ibrahim Abdul-Rahim, Not the Resistance You Seek.
posted by rabia.elizabeth at 4:08 AM on December 8, 2024 [34 favorites]
Assad was a monster
If you were in the slightest doubt about this, this account of his regime's systematic torture for torture's sake is essential reading. The prison this photographer documented has now been liberated.
One of those who has been freed in Syria is its longest-held political prisoner, Ragheed Al-Tatri. His attempts to seek asylum in neighbouring countries in the early 1980s were refused, and he was detained on re-entering Syria to return to his pregnant wife. For years she didn't even know where he was being held.
posted by rory at 4:12 AM on December 8, 2024 [17 favorites]
If you were in the slightest doubt about this, this account of his regime's systematic torture for torture's sake is essential reading. The prison this photographer documented has now been liberated.
One of those who has been freed in Syria is its longest-held political prisoner, Ragheed Al-Tatri. His attempts to seek asylum in neighbouring countries in the early 1980s were refused, and he was detained on re-entering Syria to return to his pregnant wife. For years she didn't even know where he was being held.
posted by rory at 4:12 AM on December 8, 2024 [17 favorites]
I remember when Bashar al-Assad came to London to meet Tony Blair, post 9/11, pre gulf war 2, and the general hope that this quiet, English educated new leader of Syria would herald a real change from his father; obviously the realpolitik plan was to bring Syria into the western fold against Iraq. How utterly wrong everyone was, and what a monster Bashar turned out to be.
None of the foreign powers, including the west, that have intervened in Syria over the years have anything like clean hands, but the Russian & Iranian backing particularly helped a mass murderer's brutal repression, and I'm glad that he's finally gone. We can only hope Syrians finally get to choose their own destiny and find some peace; and that many refugees can safely return home.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:26 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
None of the foreign powers, including the west, that have intervened in Syria over the years have anything like clean hands, but the Russian & Iranian backing particularly helped a mass murderer's brutal repression, and I'm glad that he's finally gone. We can only hope Syrians finally get to choose their own destiny and find some peace; and that many refugees can safely return home.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:26 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
Sic Semper Tyrannis.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:31 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:31 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
"Deeply complicated" is putting it lightly. Thanks for the links, this will be some useful reading. I'm surprised we haven't heard more in the news of of the Assad regime actually being kicked to the curb, because this is huge.
posted by zardoz at 4:31 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by zardoz at 4:31 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm surprised we haven't heard more in the news of of the Assad regime actually being kicked to the curb, because this is huge.
It literally happened last night, with the fall of Homs yesterday afternoon and rebels advancing into Damascus. I saw the news breaking that he'd fled about 5 hours ago.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:38 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
It literally happened last night, with the fall of Homs yesterday afternoon and rebels advancing into Damascus. I saw the news breaking that he'd fled about 5 hours ago.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:38 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
For posterity, from the "surprise offensive last month" link
I sometimes worry nationalism is a chemotherapy, a sickness strong enough to purge the greater sickness: colonialism. We aren't done yet.
posted by rubatan at 4:41 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
The next links were Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, the subsequent war between Israel and members of the Iran-led “axis of resistance”, and the heavy blows that Iran and Hizbollah in Lebanon, in particular, have suffered in the past few months. Hizbollah, whose fighters are known for their professionalism and ability to hold lines, and other Iran-backed militants have long deployed troops in the north west and elsewhere to aid the Syrian government. Since 7 October 2023, and particularly following the escalation of the war in Lebanon in the past few months, these forces have been under pressure due to near-daily Israeli strikes on Iranian and Hizbollah targets in Syria. Together, these developments have meant that the government’s foreign allies, which had safeguarded its survival for the past decade, are either weakened or preoccupied elsewhere....ripple effects (previously here) and complicated interlocking alliances projecting their force into Syria (on "all sides"). I've read HTS is largely unpopular in Syria as well, mitigated by recent PR campaigns. Here's to hoping whatever the result it is better future for the Syrian people, whatever they wish that to be.
I sometimes worry nationalism is a chemotherapy, a sickness strong enough to purge the greater sickness: colonialism. We aren't done yet.
posted by rubatan at 4:41 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
Syrian Il-76 disappears from flight tracking amid uncertainty over fate of dictator Assad
posted by chavenet at 4:55 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 4:55 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
I have lots of Syrian and Lebanese colleagues and former colleagues and Facebook friends. What they all to a person say is that "everyone wants Assad gone except for the Alawites*, but no two people can agree on what Syria without Assad should look like." Most of these people are educated expats, so they want parliamentary democracy, but they're the real minority, and lots and lots of people want a better dictator or Islamist rule or monarchy.
* the minority Islamic sect based in the coastal part of Syria and from where the Assads came and maintained their power base. Don't ask me about their theology, because I have no idea: the best I can do is that the Sunni establishment would think of them as "heretical lite".
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:21 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
* the minority Islamic sect based in the coastal part of Syria and from where the Assads came and maintained their power base. Don't ask me about their theology, because I have no idea: the best I can do is that the Sunni establishment would think of them as "heretical lite".
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 6:21 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
I recently read this book, A Medieval Age of Disruption: On Nicholas Morton’s “The Mongol Storm”. The book is really about the region before the rise of the Ottoman Empire, not just about the Mongols. It's a fascinating, if a bit tedious here and there, history of constant regional turmoil even before the Mongols arrived. You can easily see similarities to today.
Considering the fractured history of the region. I hope the population gets some peace and a bit of stability for awhile. But it is doubtful that either will last long. I hope to be proven wrong. The obvious large player to watch is Turkey.
posted by KaizenSoze at 6:38 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
Considering the fractured history of the region. I hope the population gets some peace and a bit of stability for awhile. But it is doubtful that either will last long. I hope to be proven wrong. The obvious large player to watch is Turkey.
posted by KaizenSoze at 6:38 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
This is bad news for Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, all of whom have Syrian blood on their hands. But more importantly is what incredible news this is for the Syrian people. The political prisons have been liberated and hopefully many of the 6.7 million Syrian refuges will be able to come home. The future is uncertain, but this moment at least should be a time of celebration.
posted by gwint at 6:40 AM on December 8, 2024 [13 favorites]
posted by gwint at 6:40 AM on December 8, 2024 [13 favorites]
This is from the Alawite-majority city of Tartous - supposedly the regime's heartland.
posted by rory at 6:46 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by rory at 6:46 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
rabia.elizabeth: I beg of MeFites to include orthodox Muslim sources of information OUTSIDE the mainstream media in your gathering of information on this issue.
Haven't looked at the videos in that comment, but that Abdul Wahid with the Substack appears to be the same Abdul Wahid who leads Hizb ut-Tahrir (Party of Liberation) in the U.K., an international Islamist organization that advocates establishing a pan-Islamic caliphate and has been banned in a number of different countries with an impressive range of ideologies and levels of liberalism (it seems like quite a feat to be banned in Russia, China, Pakistan, *and* India!). They were banned in the U.K. in January of this year after organizing matches in support of Hamas immediately after the attacks of 7 October 2023. In perhaps a strictly theological sense, they are "orthodox Muslims", in that they are conservative Sunni Muslims. But their vibe does not really strike me as in tune with most Muslims in the world.
posted by skoosh at 6:56 AM on December 8, 2024 [33 favorites]
Haven't looked at the videos in that comment, but that Abdul Wahid with the Substack appears to be the same Abdul Wahid who leads Hizb ut-Tahrir (Party of Liberation) in the U.K., an international Islamist organization that advocates establishing a pan-Islamic caliphate and has been banned in a number of different countries with an impressive range of ideologies and levels of liberalism (it seems like quite a feat to be banned in Russia, China, Pakistan, *and* India!). They were banned in the U.K. in January of this year after organizing matches in support of Hamas immediately after the attacks of 7 October 2023. In perhaps a strictly theological sense, they are "orthodox Muslims", in that they are conservative Sunni Muslims. But their vibe does not really strike me as in tune with most Muslims in the world.
posted by skoosh at 6:56 AM on December 8, 2024 [33 favorites]
Need to find the posts on BlueSky again, but it looks like HTS agreed to have local militias guarding towns in most of the country. If that arrangement holds, the country will be cantonized. This is a good thing. It means all the things HTS is suspected of intending to do, they'll never get the chance.
It also means the Kurdish areas will stay autonomous, which will infuriate Erdogan.
posted by ocschwar at 7:02 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
It also means the Kurdish areas will stay autonomous, which will infuriate Erdogan.
posted by ocschwar at 7:02 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
A moment of silence for Tulsi Gabbard at this difficult time.
posted by NotMyselfRightNow at 7:07 AM on December 8, 2024 [37 favorites]
posted by NotMyselfRightNow at 7:07 AM on December 8, 2024 [37 favorites]
* the minority Islamic sect based in the coastal part of Syria and from where the Assads came and maintained their power base. Don't ask me about their theology, because I have no idea: the best I can do is that the Sunni establishment would think of them as "heretical lite".
This is by design. The Sunni mainstream considers Alawi and Druze teachings to be so heretical that both sects command their followers not to discuss their beliefs with outsiders.
The Sunni theologian Ibn Taymiyah issued a fatwa calling for both sects to be exterminated, and I've had the surreal experience of watching sunnis defend him and his writings in front of Alawis . (Online, that is)
posted by ocschwar at 7:07 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
I have a colleague who is Syrian, and he is doing nothing but celebrating right now.
Same here!
posted by Rash at 7:11 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
Same here!
posted by Rash at 7:11 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
They found kids in the Sednaya prison.
posted by ocschwar at 7:14 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:14 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
A moment of silence for Tulsi Gabbard at this difficult time.
I was going to make a crack about Hillary Clinton reaching out to her family friend upon his reversal of fortune but then I remembered that was Hosni Mubarak.
posted by Lemkin at 7:19 AM on December 8, 2024
I was going to make a crack about Hillary Clinton reaching out to her family friend upon his reversal of fortune but then I remembered that was Hosni Mubarak.
posted by Lemkin at 7:19 AM on December 8, 2024
The bluesky account linked by ocschwar above has some other relevant commentary.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:21 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by bluesky43 at 7:21 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
Holy shit, the footage in the prison.. the rebels are urging the women prisoners to hurry out because they can't unlock all the cells and they probably want to resort to plastique on the doors they can't open.
posted by ocschwar at 7:27 AM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:27 AM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
From the Abdul Wahid link:
More recently, Bashar has been welcomed back into the fold by the “Arab Friends of America and Israel” - more commonly known as the Arab League
This is some hot nonsense. The Arab League is Israel's friend? It is to laugh.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:37 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
More recently, Bashar has been welcomed back into the fold by the “Arab Friends of America and Israel” - more commonly known as the Arab League
This is some hot nonsense. The Arab League is Israel's friend? It is to laugh.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:37 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
Anecdote: messaged a Syrian friend with "thinking of you today man." Turned out to be the perfect thing to say because he and his family are acting on the assumption that the fall of the regime means they are exiled for good. Didn't ask about their sectarian affiliation but I assume they are Shia. They never said or did anything in support of the regime, they're just people who want to live their lives, could not do so in Syria, and they appear to assume they will never be able to do so in Syria.
Won't stop me from relishing the tears and suffering of pro-Assad western tankies, but it's worth remembering that if you're born in the Middle East, you don't get to choose which power bases support the idea that your life matters. And if that power base falls, your life no longer matters.
posted by ocschwar at 7:41 AM on December 8, 2024 [11 favorites]
Won't stop me from relishing the tears and suffering of pro-Assad western tankies, but it's worth remembering that if you're born in the Middle East, you don't get to choose which power bases support the idea that your life matters. And if that power base falls, your life no longer matters.
posted by ocschwar at 7:41 AM on December 8, 2024 [11 favorites]
I don't think anyone in Israel sees this as a purely positive result, and the people claiming that this rebellion is somehow pro-Israel or pro-America don't seem to have a coherent position. While Israeli analysis has been cautiously optimistic, every commenter I've read is concerned that this could quickly lead to even more instability if no new leadership is able to consolidate power, or if the incoming regime's alliances are merely shifted from a pro-Iran but anti-Israel stance to one that's anti-Iran and anti-Israel. We've been at war with Syria since 1948. I'd like to see a permanent resolution and peace emerge on the basis of a negotiated settlement, but it's way too soon to say if such a thing is going to be possible.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:45 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by 1adam12 at 7:45 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Coming in late just to say that the current Palestine thread had some more of the Syria news when it was still developing, and it only took a week!
I did do a slapdash FPP that was rightfully deleted much earlier in my day today but I wanted to just note my observations in terms of assessing media:
So, just be aware that Syria in the last decade+ has been subject to incredible amounts of news and political slant, so here's my understanding:
- western left press that's been very good on Palestine will be having a moment of reckoning soon but in the meantime, treat all analyses as suspect - conspiracy theorizing are abound and ironically the same anti-jihadist rhetoric pro-Israelis use against Hamas.
- western liberal press that's treated Assad's regime as an important counterbalance for stability vis-à-vis Israel and the region at large, is also largely suspect, but like Palestine coverage, when they can they have a lot more journalist resources on the ground so news still does break through. Just mind the phrasing.
- Qatari press is benefiting from Qatar never budging from normalizing Assad and has a lot of Syrian and regional staff, so mind the phrasing but scoops are more legit, and more likely to present ground narratives without much editing. (I suppose if you're a french speaker you can also add Moroccan press to your list)
- other regional press will eventually follow the lead of establishment so the next week will be interesting to see the editorial direction.
- most everyone else will follow the leads of the above
toastyk did share a starter pack for bsky for Syria-relevant journalists/experts as well. I'm still on twt.
Not to play the Muslim card, but I just want to note Syria is populated and claimed by so many other faith communities than just Muslims and especially not just the Sunni Muslims.
posted by cendawanita at 7:50 AM on December 8, 2024 [29 favorites]
I did do a slapdash FPP that was rightfully deleted much earlier in my day today but I wanted to just note my observations in terms of assessing media:
So, just be aware that Syria in the last decade+ has been subject to incredible amounts of news and political slant, so here's my understanding:
- western left press that's been very good on Palestine will be having a moment of reckoning soon but in the meantime, treat all analyses as suspect - conspiracy theorizing are abound and ironically the same anti-jihadist rhetoric pro-Israelis use against Hamas.
- western liberal press that's treated Assad's regime as an important counterbalance for stability vis-à-vis Israel and the region at large, is also largely suspect, but like Palestine coverage, when they can they have a lot more journalist resources on the ground so news still does break through. Just mind the phrasing.
- Qatari press is benefiting from Qatar never budging from normalizing Assad and has a lot of Syrian and regional staff, so mind the phrasing but scoops are more legit, and more likely to present ground narratives without much editing. (I suppose if you're a french speaker you can also add Moroccan press to your list)
- other regional press will eventually follow the lead of establishment so the next week will be interesting to see the editorial direction.
- most everyone else will follow the leads of the above
toastyk did share a starter pack for bsky for Syria-relevant journalists/experts as well. I'm still on twt.
Not to play the Muslim card, but I just want to note Syria is populated and claimed by so many other faith communities than just Muslims and especially not just the Sunni Muslims.
posted by cendawanita at 7:50 AM on December 8, 2024 [29 favorites]
It also means the Kurdish areas will stay autonomous, which will infuriate Erdogan.
The dominant rebel group has made a point of beating up on the Kurdish rebels, and despite assurances to the contrary appears to be targeting Kurds for forced removals. I don't know if Rojava will be able to hold out on its own.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:50 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
The dominant rebel group has made a point of beating up on the Kurdish rebels, and despite assurances to the contrary appears to be targeting Kurds for forced removals. I don't know if Rojava will be able to hold out on its own.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:50 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
While Israeli analysis has been cautiously optimistic, every commenter I've read is concerned that this could quickly lead to even more instability if no new leadership is able to consolidate power, or if the incoming regime's alliances are merely shifted from a pro-Iran but anti-Israel stance to one that's anti-Iran and anti-Israel.
At times like this I remind myself of the story, perhaps apocryphal, of Zhou Enlai being asked if, on the whole, the French Revolution had been a positive historical development.
The gentleman is said to have replied, “Surely it is too soon to tell.”
posted by Lemkin at 7:54 AM on December 8, 2024 [10 favorites]
At times like this I remind myself of the story, perhaps apocryphal, of Zhou Enlai being asked if, on the whole, the French Revolution had been a positive historical development.
The gentleman is said to have replied, “Surely it is too soon to tell.”
posted by Lemkin at 7:54 AM on December 8, 2024 [10 favorites]
Real quote. Dated 1968, however.
posted by ocschwar at 7:57 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:57 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
Israel's Netanyahu declares end of Syria border agreement, orders military to seize buffer zone -
Netanyahu announces the collapse of the 1974 border agreement with Syria and orders the army to seize the Golan Heights buffer zone.
(Also shared in the Palestine thread because of the Israel connection.)
posted by cendawanita at 7:59 AM on December 8, 2024 [14 favorites]
Netanyahu announces the collapse of the 1974 border agreement with Syria and orders the army to seize the Golan Heights buffer zone.
(Also shared in the Palestine thread because of the Israel connection.)
posted by cendawanita at 7:59 AM on December 8, 2024 [14 favorites]
That Bibi… what a scamp.
posted by Lemkin at 8:02 AM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
posted by Lemkin at 8:02 AM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
I'm sure *that* will improve peace and stability in Syria at this precise moment. (headdesk.gif)
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:07 AM on December 8, 2024 [15 favorites]
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 8:07 AM on December 8, 2024 [15 favorites]
If you remember when the US-supported groups threw the Soviets out of Afghanistan, it's worth (re) watching the underappreciated Charlie Wilson's War, especially this 2-minute scene between Charlie Wilson (Tom Hanks) and Gust, the CIA op played by the sorely missed Philip David Hoffman.
posted by Citizen Cane Juice at 8:18 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
posted by Citizen Cane Juice at 8:18 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
Relevant to that piece of news, Assal Rad shared a clip from a Sept 2023 US State daily briefing with the press pool (with vid):
StateSpox September 2023: As long as Assad is in power, control of the Golan remains important to Israel’s security
Matt Lee: Do you recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan?
Miller: Leaving aside the legalities—
Lee: You can’t leave them aside
Miller: I spoke to the practicality
@SMArikat: So sovereignty is not contingent on sovereignty itself but on who rules Syria?
So, we can assume the US now recognizes that Israel is illegally occupying the Golan Heights, and will also lift sanctions on Syria, right?
posted by cendawanita at 8:39 AM on December 8, 2024 [11 favorites]
StateSpox September 2023: As long as Assad is in power, control of the Golan remains important to Israel’s security
Matt Lee: Do you recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan?
Miller: Leaving aside the legalities—
Lee: You can’t leave them aside
Miller: I spoke to the practicality
@SMArikat: So sovereignty is not contingent on sovereignty itself but on who rules Syria?
So, we can assume the US now recognizes that Israel is illegally occupying the Golan Heights, and will also lift sanctions on Syria, right?
posted by cendawanita at 8:39 AM on December 8, 2024 [11 favorites]
Israel probably does well out of this. Druze self-determination to whatever extent it may be realized is a huge win - there are many Israeli Druze and Syrian Druze are friendly to Israel. Assad was historically no friend of Iran but he had to knuckle under to them to save himself from ISIS; his being replaced by Sunni-majority governance outside of Druze and Kurdish territories is an improvement over the status quo. Sunni powers have pretty much given up on Palestinians outside of rhetoric, and if the rulers of (most) of Syria are Sunnis under the guidance/with the support of the major Sunni powers (the Gulf states, Turkey) they will track that. Certainly Hezbollah is going to lose its entire supply chain across the Syria-Lebanon border which may be the final blow to its ability to act as a quasi-governmental body in Shia-majority parts of Lebanon.
posted by MattD at 8:58 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by MattD at 8:58 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
this 2-minute scene between Charlie Wilson (Tom Hanks) and Gust, the CIA op played by the sorely missed Philip David Hoffman
Few people say nice things about Sydney Pollack's Havana (1990). But there is some fine dialogue in it, including this exchange at the end between Robert Redford and the CIA spook who has to leave town now that [spoiler alert] the rebels have overthrown Batista.
Redford says something about the CIA having lost the contest. The CIA guy says "The game never ends. So we never lose."
Redford says, "Then you never win either."
posted by Lemkin at 9:02 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
Few people say nice things about Sydney Pollack's Havana (1990). But there is some fine dialogue in it, including this exchange at the end between Robert Redford and the CIA spook who has to leave town now that [spoiler alert] the rebels have overthrown Batista.
Redford says something about the CIA having lost the contest. The CIA guy says "The game never ends. So we never lose."
Redford says, "Then you never win either."
posted by Lemkin at 9:02 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
"We can only hope Syrians finally get to choose their own destiny and find some peace" is true but extremely complicated in a diverse country. On the one hand, the majority may not want a secular society, but on the other the rights of minority sects and women should be inherent and not dependent on majorities or coalitions.
posted by rikschell at 9:29 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 9:29 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
Russia loses an airbase and port in Syria, which were its only major installations outside of Russia, and key to supporting its forces in Africa, which are likely the next domino to be evacuated.
There have been hopeful signs that HTS recognizes that there's a difficult job of governing ahead and they need to be grown up about it. They cut a deal with Iran a couple days ago to protect Shiites and Shiite holy sites, and provide safe passage to Iranian forces to evacuate. They've made hopeful statements about protecting all minorities. At the least they seem to be angling for the position of Western-recognized government or senior partner in whatever coalition comes next, which carries with it some limitations on human rights abuses. Possibly they're hoping that if they play nice they can be the recipients of western aid to rebuild things, which isn't crazy.
posted by fatbird at 9:33 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
There have been hopeful signs that HTS recognizes that there's a difficult job of governing ahead and they need to be grown up about it. They cut a deal with Iran a couple days ago to protect Shiites and Shiite holy sites, and provide safe passage to Iranian forces to evacuate. They've made hopeful statements about protecting all minorities. At the least they seem to be angling for the position of Western-recognized government or senior partner in whatever coalition comes next, which carries with it some limitations on human rights abuses. Possibly they're hoping that if they play nice they can be the recipients of western aid to rebuild things, which isn't crazy.
posted by fatbird at 9:33 AM on December 8, 2024 [9 favorites]
They're also right next door to a country thay has an Islamist political party expressly modeled after the Christian Democrats (Iraqi Kurdistan).
posted by ocschwar at 9:45 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 9:45 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
Looks like Assad and his family have fled to Moscow.
posted by gwint at 10:23 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by gwint at 10:23 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
The dominant rebel group has made a point of beating up on the Kurdish rebels, and despite assurances to the contrary appears to be targeting Kurds for forced removals.
They demanded the departure of the Kurdish militias from exclaves inside their area of operation. Kurdish civilians left as well, showing they do not have confidence in HTS's intentions, but HTS did call on them to stay.
Now we'll see if they can persuade them to return.
Exclaves in Aleppo would mean regular supply convoys through HTS territory, and that's not conducive to the uneasy peace we'll see in the next few months. Can't believe I'm saying this but I understand why HTS would demand this.
posted by ocschwar at 10:25 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
They demanded the departure of the Kurdish militias from exclaves inside their area of operation. Kurdish civilians left as well, showing they do not have confidence in HTS's intentions, but HTS did call on them to stay.
Now we'll see if they can persuade them to return.
Exclaves in Aleppo would mean regular supply convoys through HTS territory, and that's not conducive to the uneasy peace we'll see in the next few months. Can't believe I'm saying this but I understand why HTS would demand this.
posted by ocschwar at 10:25 AM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
Wow.
My heart joins all those who are celebrating today.
Rhaomi, thank you so much for posting this. I hope with all my heart that Syria can find a way toward a peaceful, safe, kind, healing future.
posted by kristi at 10:38 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
My heart joins all those who are celebrating today.
Rhaomi, thank you so much for posting this. I hope with all my heart that Syria can find a way toward a peaceful, safe, kind, healing future.
posted by kristi at 10:38 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
Well, we can hope that what comes next will be better. Historically the odds are about 10% on average, but given Israel's active role in undermining everything in the region I'm fairly sure it'll be less than that in this instance.
Still, it's a good thing when a regime as awful as Assad's falls.
There's been some speculation this may pressure Putin into leaving Ukraine, but that seems really far fetched to me. It's not as if Putin was depending on Syria for much of anything.
I wish them the best, and hope they can make something better.
posted by sotonohito at 10:42 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Still, it's a good thing when a regime as awful as Assad's falls.
There's been some speculation this may pressure Putin into leaving Ukraine, but that seems really far fetched to me. It's not as if Putin was depending on Syria for much of anything.
I wish them the best, and hope they can make something better.
posted by sotonohito at 10:42 AM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
It's not as if Putin was depending on Syria for much of anything.
Err, Syria was how they supplied their mercs in Africa (eg: Mali, which was paying on the order of ten million a month for them), and was the site of large Russian military outposts (naval & air). It's a fairly significant loss.
posted by aramaic at 10:53 AM on December 8, 2024 [10 favorites]
Err, Syria was how they supplied their mercs in Africa (eg: Mali, which was paying on the order of ten million a month for them), and was the site of large Russian military outposts (naval & air). It's a fairly significant loss.
posted by aramaic at 10:53 AM on December 8, 2024 [10 favorites]
There's been some speculation this may pressure Putin into leaving Ukraine, but that seems really far fetched to me. It's not as if Putin was depending on Syria for much of anything.
Russ'a neocolonial adventures in Africa relied on Syria as an air base. Without it, the profit margin from all those African blood minerals and Wagner contracts shrinks.
posted by ocschwar at 10:55 AM on December 8, 2024 [7 favorites]
Russ'a neocolonial adventures in Africa relied on Syria as an air base. Without it, the profit margin from all those African blood minerals and Wagner contracts shrinks.
posted by ocschwar at 10:55 AM on December 8, 2024 [7 favorites]
As someone who is an atheist, it is so hard to see how many people are killed, or lives destroyed due to religious disagreements. I don't know exactly why Sunnis and Shias are willing to kill each other. It's like the Protestant-Catholic violence in NI. Has just never made sense to me.
posted by Windopaene at 10:58 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
posted by Windopaene at 10:58 AM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
As someone who is an atheist, it is so hard to see how many people are killed, or lives destroyed due to religious disagreements. I don't know exactly why Sunnis and Shias are willing to kill each other. It's like the Protestant-Catholic violence in NI. Has just never made sense to me.
Rarely is it just about religion. It is usually mostly about power, land, resources, and identity.
posted by plonkee at 11:11 AM on December 8, 2024 [25 favorites]
Rarely is it just about religion. It is usually mostly about power, land, resources, and identity.
posted by plonkee at 11:11 AM on December 8, 2024 [25 favorites]
Israel needs someplace to put the Palestinians if Palestine is to become part of 'greater Israel', because the world probably won’t let them get away with killing them, and they’re sure as hell not going to make them citizens.
And lo, a new option has miraculously appeared.
posted by jamjam at 11:17 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
And lo, a new option has miraculously appeared.
posted by jamjam at 11:17 AM on December 8, 2024 [3 favorites]
Apologies if this source has already been linked. I found it useful.
Rojava Information Center
posted by latkes at 11:19 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
Rojava Information Center
posted by latkes at 11:19 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
I don't know exactly why Sunnis and Shias are willing to kill each other.
Arab society had its class divisions in the early Muslim era, as all societies do.
The underclass came up with a religious proxy for their cause: the idea that the Caliphate was no longer "rightly guided."
Presto-changeo - class dispute becomes sectarian dispute. Humans gonna human.
posted by ocschwar at 11:24 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
Arab society had its class divisions in the early Muslim era, as all societies do.
The underclass came up with a religious proxy for their cause: the idea that the Caliphate was no longer "rightly guided."
Presto-changeo - class dispute becomes sectarian dispute. Humans gonna human.
posted by ocschwar at 11:24 AM on December 8, 2024 [6 favorites]
Israel needs someplace to put the Palestinians if Palestine is to become part of 'greater Israel', because the world probably won’t let them get away with killing them
Assumes fact not in evidence.
posted by Lemkin at 11:56 AM on December 8, 2024 [16 favorites]
Assumes fact not in evidence.
posted by Lemkin at 11:56 AM on December 8, 2024 [16 favorites]
Syrian Il-76 disappears from flight tracking amid uncertainty over fate of dictator Assad
Prego-changeo - fleeing client pariah becomes aviation mystery. Putin gonna Putin?
(Reportedly, the flight departed from a Russian airbase after Assad was ferried there on a smaller aircraft.)
ETA: I see his arrival in Moscow has been announced, so maybe on his next vacation. Keeping him around won't be anything but a bother and embarrassment.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:25 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Prego-changeo - fleeing client pariah becomes aviation mystery. Putin gonna Putin?
(Reportedly, the flight departed from a Russian airbase after Assad was ferried there on a smaller aircraft.)
ETA: I see his arrival in Moscow has been announced, so maybe on his next vacation. Keeping him around won't be anything but a bother and embarrassment.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:25 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Appreciate the info ocschwar.
Religious Capitalism and such, all the way down...
So much death and suffering...
But Oil. And Israel. And the Cold War.
Seems like bad people are gone. Now some other bad people are coming in. They seem more religiously extreme, but they are not 50 year oligarchs. I have given up trying to figure out the Middle-East. Everyone, on any side, has a grievance. And rightly so.
I'm an old, and can totally remember watching the nightly news and seeing things about Belfast and Lebanon. Probably too young to remember details. See also Phnom Penh, which was certainly a part of my Vietnam War era upbringing. Walter Cronkite giving out Death Count stats every night. Yikes.
But certainly seems this is going to fuck shit up. Not great with TFG about to take over.
Jackpot
posted by Windopaene at 12:28 PM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
Religious Capitalism and such, all the way down...
So much death and suffering...
But Oil. And Israel. And the Cold War.
Seems like bad people are gone. Now some other bad people are coming in. They seem more religiously extreme, but they are not 50 year oligarchs. I have given up trying to figure out the Middle-East. Everyone, on any side, has a grievance. And rightly so.
I'm an old, and can totally remember watching the nightly news and seeing things about Belfast and Lebanon. Probably too young to remember details. See also Phnom Penh, which was certainly a part of my Vietnam War era upbringing. Walter Cronkite giving out Death Count stats every night. Yikes.
But certainly seems this is going to fuck shit up. Not great with TFG about to take over.
Jackpot
posted by Windopaene at 12:28 PM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
I have a colleague who is Syrian, and he is doing nothing but celebrating right now.
horns are a-honking in my neighbourhood.
posted by philip-random at 12:32 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
horns are a-honking in my neighbourhood.
posted by philip-random at 12:32 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
I wonder if we'll see bashar al-assad selling Warby Parker at the Okhotny Rya.
posted by clavdivs at 1:09 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 1:09 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Honestly, he would probably have lived a respectable life as an eye doctor if only his brother didn't act like Uday Hussein and gotten himself killed.
posted by ocschwar at 1:45 PM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 1:45 PM on December 8, 2024 [1 favorite]
I hope, against all hope, that Wafa Ali Mustafa can be reunited with her father.
And that people freed from detention will find comfort and peace.
I cannot begin to comprehend the psychological and physical tolls of what people have endured. It is impossible to know what the future will hold, but here is wishing that, somehow, Syrians will find both stability and a chance to heal.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 2:00 PM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
And that people freed from detention will find comfort and peace.
I cannot begin to comprehend the psychological and physical tolls of what people have endured. It is impossible to know what the future will hold, but here is wishing that, somehow, Syrians will find both stability and a chance to heal.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 2:00 PM on December 8, 2024 [5 favorites]
Dawn in Damascus: In the end, Bashar al-Assad had nothing to say to the country he bludgeoned and bled, but what matters now is that his ‘forever’ rule is over.
[Kareem Shaheen, New Lines Magazine]
posted by Kabanos at 6:08 PM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
[Kareem Shaheen, New Lines Magazine]
posted by Kabanos at 6:08 PM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
The walls of fear have been destroyed, and suddenly before us there is a new landscape of hope, one that has been so hard to even dare to imagine over the past few years.
posted by rory at 6:53 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by rory at 6:53 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Israel Launches Devastating Strike on Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus
posted by cendawanita at 8:06 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 8:06 PM on December 8, 2024 [2 favorites]
Iran ‘lost faith’ in Assad before his ousting -
Insider says Tehran declined to provide more military support for now-deposed Syrian leader
The insider said there had been long-standing frustration with Assad in Tehran. “For more than a year, it was clear his time had passed. He had become an obstacle, a liability — some even called him a betrayer. His inaction cost us dearly, and he aligned himself with regional actors who promised him a future that never materialised.”
Some within Iran’s government believed Assad had begun courting Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates, lured by promises of postwar reconstruction aid in exchange for distancing himself from Iran, said analysts and politicians.
In the aftermath of Assad’s fall to insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni rebel group, recriminations have mounted within Tehran’s leadership. “People within his regime were leaking information about the whereabouts of Iranian commanders,” the insider claimed. “Assad turned his back on us when we needed him most.”
posted by cendawanita at 8:50 PM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
Insider says Tehran declined to provide more military support for now-deposed Syrian leader
The insider said there had been long-standing frustration with Assad in Tehran. “For more than a year, it was clear his time had passed. He had become an obstacle, a liability — some even called him a betrayer. His inaction cost us dearly, and he aligned himself with regional actors who promised him a future that never materialised.”
Some within Iran’s government believed Assad had begun courting Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates, lured by promises of postwar reconstruction aid in exchange for distancing himself from Iran, said analysts and politicians.
In the aftermath of Assad’s fall to insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni rebel group, recriminations have mounted within Tehran’s leadership. “People within his regime were leaking information about the whereabouts of Iranian commanders,” the insider claimed. “Assad turned his back on us when we needed him most.”
posted by cendawanita at 8:50 PM on December 8, 2024 [4 favorites]
Australian ABC live blog that I'm following.
Israel hitting several targets "to avoid weapons falling into the hands of extremists"
USA also hitting targets.
posted by freethefeet at 1:19 AM on December 9, 2024
Israel hitting several targets "to avoid weapons falling into the hands of extremists"
USA also hitting targets.
posted by freethefeet at 1:19 AM on December 9, 2024
Israel Launches Devastating Strike on Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus
I'm picturing the destruction of Kurtz's compound at the end of Apocalypse Now.
posted by Lemkin at 6:41 AM on December 9, 2024
I'm picturing the destruction of Kurtz's compound at the end of Apocalypse Now.
posted by Lemkin at 6:41 AM on December 9, 2024
"to avoid weapons falling into the hands of extremists"
Translation: because we can
posted by ginger.beef at 6:43 AM on December 9, 2024 [4 favorites]
Translation: because we can
posted by ginger.beef at 6:43 AM on December 9, 2024 [4 favorites]
While I don't approve of yet more Israeli bombing of "targets", doing SOMETHING about the various stockpiles of weapons in Syria is a damn good idea. Never forget that the insurgency in Iraq got a big boost in the beginning because Junior and his merry band of idiots ignored the Iraqi military stockpiles so the proto-insurgents were able to grab a lot of high grade weaponry and explosives to help bootstrap their operations.
I'm sure that "fuck you, we want to murder more Arabs" is a huge part of the Israeli motivation, but it's not all there is to the motivation.
posted by sotonohito at 7:23 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm sure that "fuck you, we want to murder more Arabs" is a huge part of the Israeli motivation, but it's not all there is to the motivation.
posted by sotonohito at 7:23 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
Is this the same Israeli motivation that equates national security with Palestinian death count? Is this the soon-to-be Trump led US deciding what constitutes extremism?
posted by ginger.beef at 8:01 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 8:01 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm sure that "fuck you, we want to murder more Arabs" is a huge part of the Israeli motivation, but it's not all there is to the motivation.
No, I think that's about it. If there are still people around then your land grab is going to have the same Palestine problem.
In any case, it's been an entire day for me and news from Seydnaya Prison is unrelenting. Apparently they're having genuine trouble finding ways to free the prisoners due to the expansive size of the underground complex and lack of records/tracking info.
Otherwise:
a pretty long thread (Threadreader version) from Graeme Smith of International Crisis Group on the long-term implications of HTS being categorized as a terrorist in opening up aid/resources into Syria. I'm paraphrasing poorly, it's basically an article that calls up the larger context on how sanctions impact the most impoverished the most and the current political limits despite work being done at the UN-level for carveouts. Hopefully the transition government being formed right now will meet enough technical criteria to avoid this fate (but I am high-key nervous because Israel's unrelenting war mode might cause the US to throw its weight around - and I'm sorry, more than anything else supposedly contained in fundamentalist Islam, it's the continued decades of international interference that's consigned an entire region into unending quagmire. Unless other regional Muslim majorities have something differently Islamic to have avoided this fate? Do people forget the largest Muslim population doesn't in fact reside in the MENA region?)
Charles Lister also has been writing quite a bit in FP on Syria and it seems like he's been anticipating something to this effect even earlier this year (iirc). Regardless, new piece: How the World Got Syria Wrong -
The international community misjudged the strength of the Assad regime—and its fixation on an external political process is being overtaken by events.
Matthew Petti: Blowback - Hypotheticals aside, Assad’s fall is already a clear case of blowback — just not on the part of the United States. The Assad family was one of the most cynical actors in the modern Middle East, having dealt with and backstabbed almost every major player in the region. And many of those double games came back to bite Assad at the last moment.
Of course, the social rot of the old regime, U.S. economic pressure preventing reconstruction, and broader geopolitical shifts were important structural factors that brought down the Syrian state. But the specific actors that brought down Assad — breakaway Al Qaeda and the Kurdish-led democratic confederalists — were both ones that the Assad dynasty had played footsie with. And the curious lack of support from Assad’s most important patron, Iran, was likely the result of more backstabbing.
(Taking the last as a sign of shifting analytical frames within the more left and sympathetic to the "Axis of Resistance" as a coalition)
posted by cendawanita at 8:12 AM on December 9, 2024 [7 favorites]
No, I think that's about it. If there are still people around then your land grab is going to have the same Palestine problem.
In any case, it's been an entire day for me and news from Seydnaya Prison is unrelenting. Apparently they're having genuine trouble finding ways to free the prisoners due to the expansive size of the underground complex and lack of records/tracking info.
Otherwise:
a pretty long thread (Threadreader version) from Graeme Smith of International Crisis Group on the long-term implications of HTS being categorized as a terrorist in opening up aid/resources into Syria. I'm paraphrasing poorly, it's basically an article that calls up the larger context on how sanctions impact the most impoverished the most and the current political limits despite work being done at the UN-level for carveouts. Hopefully the transition government being formed right now will meet enough technical criteria to avoid this fate (but I am high-key nervous because Israel's unrelenting war mode might cause the US to throw its weight around - and I'm sorry, more than anything else supposedly contained in fundamentalist Islam, it's the continued decades of international interference that's consigned an entire region into unending quagmire. Unless other regional Muslim majorities have something differently Islamic to have avoided this fate? Do people forget the largest Muslim population doesn't in fact reside in the MENA region?)
Charles Lister also has been writing quite a bit in FP on Syria and it seems like he's been anticipating something to this effect even earlier this year (iirc). Regardless, new piece: How the World Got Syria Wrong -
The international community misjudged the strength of the Assad regime—and its fixation on an external political process is being overtaken by events.
Matthew Petti: Blowback - Hypotheticals aside, Assad’s fall is already a clear case of blowback — just not on the part of the United States. The Assad family was one of the most cynical actors in the modern Middle East, having dealt with and backstabbed almost every major player in the region. And many of those double games came back to bite Assad at the last moment.
Of course, the social rot of the old regime, U.S. economic pressure preventing reconstruction, and broader geopolitical shifts were important structural factors that brought down the Syrian state. But the specific actors that brought down Assad — breakaway Al Qaeda and the Kurdish-led democratic confederalists — were both ones that the Assad dynasty had played footsie with. And the curious lack of support from Assad’s most important patron, Iran, was likely the result of more backstabbing.
(Taking the last as a sign of shifting analytical frames within the more left and sympathetic to the "Axis of Resistance" as a coalition)
posted by cendawanita at 8:12 AM on December 9, 2024 [7 favorites]
I guess my point is, "extremist Islamist group" short circuits many Western brains. I think of women being denied their rights, the issuing of fatwas and sharia law, young men shooting assault rifles into the air. What do we know about extremism? The mote in our neighbour's eye
posted by ginger.beef at 8:32 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 8:32 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
Israel needs someplace to put the Palestinians if Palestine is to become part of 'greater Israel',
Israel has performed many many land grabs over the last 80 years, not once has it used a single square inch to house Palestinians, I don't expect that to change.
posted by Lanark at 8:41 AM on December 9, 2024 [11 favorites]
Israel has performed many many land grabs over the last 80 years, not once has it used a single square inch to house Palestinians, I don't expect that to change.
posted by Lanark at 8:41 AM on December 9, 2024 [11 favorites]
I'm sure that "fuck you, we want to murder more Arabs" is a huge part of the Israeli motivation, but it's not all there is to the motivation.
Ugh. It's rather more like, "we would prefer the incoming factions who affirmatively and openly see themselves as mujahadeen, and who are not expected to be restrained by Russian policy, to not to have MiGs and helicopter gunships." An airbase is not an apartment building.
That is in service to the rest of its policies, but the distinction is rather straightforward (and less cynical, it would seem to me, than the seizure of more territory in the Golan Heights).
And it might prevent more of those aircraft, vehicles, and systems from being redeployed to Ukraine.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:09 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
Ugh. It's rather more like, "we would prefer the incoming factions who affirmatively and openly see themselves as mujahadeen, and who are not expected to be restrained by Russian policy, to not to have MiGs and helicopter gunships." An airbase is not an apartment building.
That is in service to the rest of its policies, but the distinction is rather straightforward (and less cynical, it would seem to me, than the seizure of more territory in the Golan Heights).
And it might prevent more of those aircraft, vehicles, and systems from being redeployed to Ukraine.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:09 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
EU politicians are talking about ending refugee claims for Syrians.
I'm glad to live in a country where nobody really expects refugees to be in a rush to return.
posted by ocschwar at 9:13 AM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
I'm glad to live in a country where nobody really expects refugees to be in a rush to return.
posted by ocschwar at 9:13 AM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
And it might prevent more of those aircraft, vehicles, and systems from being redeployed to Ukraine.
I would expect it to be used towards maintaining it's sovereignty at the Golan Heights or even, just like Hezb, actually aiming towards Israel proper, I'll be honest with you. It's not like Russia is backing the new government, how are they carting them off? Donkeys?
Edit: I'm basically saying I don't expect Israel to have any long term strategic mindset in place. Ukraine? Heh.
posted by cendawanita at 9:18 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
I would expect it to be used towards maintaining it's sovereignty at the Golan Heights or even, just like Hezb, actually aiming towards Israel proper, I'll be honest with you. It's not like Russia is backing the new government, how are they carting them off? Donkeys?
Edit: I'm basically saying I don't expect Israel to have any long term strategic mindset in place. Ukraine? Heh.
posted by cendawanita at 9:18 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
I'm not suggesting Israel is destroying that equipment (or any munitions) to help Ukraine; but I won't mind if it does.
I don't expect Israel to have any long term strategic mindset in place
Depriving a new, probably more hostile government next door the tools provided to the previous regime by its major patron is relatively 'strategic.'
how are they carting them off? Donkeys?
No, I mean Russia redeploying whatever it can before it abandons the airfields as it has its port (reportedly). The most recent imagery I've seen suggests the almost all the fighters are gone, with just a few left to escort the remaining large transport planes. I don't know how many flights it takes to move an S-400 complex, but they didn't arrive on trucks.
I suppose it might imply that Israel calculated that Russia wouldn't destroy everything they couldn't take with them, just to leave more chaos behind. Also possible that the US encouraged it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:31 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
I don't expect Israel to have any long term strategic mindset in place
Depriving a new, probably more hostile government next door the tools provided to the previous regime by its major patron is relatively 'strategic.'
how are they carting them off? Donkeys?
No, I mean Russia redeploying whatever it can before it abandons the airfields as it has its port (reportedly). The most recent imagery I've seen suggests the almost all the fighters are gone, with just a few left to escort the remaining large transport planes. I don't know how many flights it takes to move an S-400 complex, but they didn't arrive on trucks.
I suppose it might imply that Israel calculated that Russia wouldn't destroy everything they couldn't take with them, just to leave more chaos behind. Also possible that the US encouraged it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:31 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
Depriving a new, probably more hostile government next door the tools provided to the previous regime by its major patron is relatively 'strategic.'
I agree, that this would be their point of view. I disagree that it's any demonstration of long-term strategic thinking, but I should be clearer: I mean long-term strategic thinking that's not stupid or pyrrhic.
There may be something to what you speculate about Russia's capacity to make off with those assets, but I'm always handicapped in thinking about logistical particulars of this nature so it looks as likely as anything to me.
posted by cendawanita at 9:37 AM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
I agree, that this would be their point of view. I disagree that it's any demonstration of long-term strategic thinking, but I should be clearer: I mean long-term strategic thinking that's not stupid or pyrrhic.
There may be something to what you speculate about Russia's capacity to make off with those assets, but I'm always handicapped in thinking about logistical particulars of this nature so it looks as likely as anything to me.
posted by cendawanita at 9:37 AM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
Also possible that the US encouraged it.
You know how Hezbollah are described in Western media as “Iran-backed forces”?
Think of Israel as “US-backed forces” and its actions are easier to interpret.
posted by Lemkin at 9:48 AM on December 9, 2024 [5 favorites]
You know how Hezbollah are described in Western media as “Iran-backed forces”?
Think of Israel as “US-backed forces” and its actions are easier to interpret.
posted by Lemkin at 9:48 AM on December 9, 2024 [5 favorites]
Yes. Russia only has around 50-60 S-400 complexes total (as an example). Under current sanctions and economic conditions, it's not clear how easy it is for them to replace them. Plus, they are still sensitive in terms of intelligence on their operation.
So, presuming they had some at their Damascus airbase or around their port, I could see there being a bit of a sideshow around RU trying to get the radar and guidance units out vs. the US and its allies wanting to strand them there (by blowing up the transports and/or cratering the runways) or destroy them.
Israel not wanting the incoming government to directly have the attack helicopter fleet that supported Assad's regime is also relatively straightforward. And might ultimately be better for Syrians, depending on how this goes, though that is obviously not Israel's motivation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:50 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
So, presuming they had some at their Damascus airbase or around their port, I could see there being a bit of a sideshow around RU trying to get the radar and guidance units out vs. the US and its allies wanting to strand them there (by blowing up the transports and/or cratering the runways) or destroy them.
Israel not wanting the incoming government to directly have the attack helicopter fleet that supported Assad's regime is also relatively straightforward. And might ultimately be better for Syrians, depending on how this goes, though that is obviously not Israel's motivation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:50 AM on December 9, 2024 [2 favorites]
Israel probably does well out of this. Druze self-determination to whatever extent it may be realized is a huge win - there are many Israeli Druze and Syrian Druze are friendly to Israel. Assad was historically no friend of Iran but he had to knuckle under to them to save himself from ISIS; his being replaced by Sunni-majority governance outside of Druze and Kurdish territories is an improvement over the status quo. Sunni powers have pretty much given up on Palestinians outside of rhetoric, and if the rulers of (most) of Syria are Sunnis under the guidance/with the support of the major Sunni powers (the Gulf states, Turkey) they will track that. Certainly Hezbollah is going to lose its entire supply chain across the Syria-Lebanon border which may be the final blow to its ability to act as a quasi-governmental body in Shia-majority parts of Lebanon.
I think this is too simple an analysis.
The Israelis are destroying the remaining heavy military equipment the Syrians have (luckily this is mostly on Syrian military bases and not near civilians but we'll see what the next few days of strikes brings). Fine, they'll take and hold for some period of time some strategically valuable but otherwise useless buffer zone land but strategically the status quo with an enemy but stable Syrian government was preferable to almost any plausible outcome here.
I also think that the situation for the Druze is much more complicated than this. The lesson the Druze have rightfully taken from history is that they can rely on themselves and themselves alone. Druze inside Israel have aligned themselves very pragmatically with the state, Druze in Lebanon have made what alliance they have to, same in Syria. Many states and empires have risen and fallen around them and getting involved with great power struggles doesn't end well for religious minorities. I think it is a big mistake to describe the Druze as "friendly" to anybody who isn't kin (not personally, I have many Druze friends but politically). Having friends is something that massive powers like the US can do because the downside of getting your strategy wrong for the US is that you have to make a bunch of movies about losing a war and how sad that made you, the downside of doing that for a religious minority like the Druze is death.
I'm glad the world is rid of the wretched Assad and his foul dogs but I hope that Syria doesn't descend into horrible ethnic cleansing of Alawites (or of Syrian Christians, or of Kurds).
You know how Hezbollah are described in Western media as “Iran-backed forces”?
Think of Israel as “US-backed forces” and its actions are easier to interpret.
Yes, those are parallel in that they are both completely wrong and that the frequent use of them is a symptom of Western arrogance. In both cases the real driving motivations are local and internal and external alliances are deployed to deliver local priorities.
posted by atrazine at 10:34 AM on December 9, 2024 [10 favorites]
I think this is too simple an analysis.
The Israelis are destroying the remaining heavy military equipment the Syrians have (luckily this is mostly on Syrian military bases and not near civilians but we'll see what the next few days of strikes brings). Fine, they'll take and hold for some period of time some strategically valuable but otherwise useless buffer zone land but strategically the status quo with an enemy but stable Syrian government was preferable to almost any plausible outcome here.
I also think that the situation for the Druze is much more complicated than this. The lesson the Druze have rightfully taken from history is that they can rely on themselves and themselves alone. Druze inside Israel have aligned themselves very pragmatically with the state, Druze in Lebanon have made what alliance they have to, same in Syria. Many states and empires have risen and fallen around them and getting involved with great power struggles doesn't end well for religious minorities. I think it is a big mistake to describe the Druze as "friendly" to anybody who isn't kin (not personally, I have many Druze friends but politically). Having friends is something that massive powers like the US can do because the downside of getting your strategy wrong for the US is that you have to make a bunch of movies about losing a war and how sad that made you, the downside of doing that for a religious minority like the Druze is death.
I'm glad the world is rid of the wretched Assad and his foul dogs but I hope that Syria doesn't descend into horrible ethnic cleansing of Alawites (or of Syrian Christians, or of Kurds).
You know how Hezbollah are described in Western media as “Iran-backed forces”?
Think of Israel as “US-backed forces” and its actions are easier to interpret.
Yes, those are parallel in that they are both completely wrong and that the frequent use of them is a symptom of Western arrogance. In both cases the real driving motivations are local and internal and external alliances are deployed to deliver local priorities.
posted by atrazine at 10:34 AM on December 9, 2024 [10 favorites]
A Times Radio interview with a former UK military advisor to CENTCOM on Russia's efforts to evacuate its forces and potential outcomes in light of the factions rising to power, for what that's worth.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:51 AM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:51 AM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
they are both completely wrong and that the frequent use of them is a symptom of Western arrogance
As much arrogance as a third of a trillion dollars will buy.
posted by Lemkin at 11:35 AM on December 9, 2024 [3 favorites]
As much arrogance as a third of a trillion dollars will buy.
posted by Lemkin at 11:35 AM on December 9, 2024 [3 favorites]
What will the new regime be like? Natasha Hall (Center for Strategic and International Studies) and Joost Hiltermann (International Crisis Group): The Day After Assad.
Syria’s future, and the region’s, is filled with uncertainty. Clashes are already ongoing between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) armed groups in the north and the Kurdish-dominated SDF. While most Syrians are jubilant, including the millions of exiles who are beginning to find their way home from Lebanon, Turkey, and elsewhere, the fate of many Kurds expelled by Turkey previously from Afrin and other areas in the north is less certain. SDF General Mazloum Abdi has announced that his administration is pleased with the downfall of the Assad regime and his coordination with HTS, but the Kurds and Turkey will need to come to a compromise that does not unleash more bloodshed inside and outside Syria’s borders, a daunting challenge in the best of times.Theo Padnos provides a unique perspective. Once they were my captors. Now they rule Syria.
Meanwhile, thousands of Islamic State fighters remain in prisons in the northeast under SDF control. Those fighters, should they escape or if cells should reemerge, would be a major spoiler for any post-Assad government and for the region. Likewise, Israel has already invaded the demilitarized zone on its border with Syria and has continued to strike weapons depots and suspected chemical weapons production sites. For the moment, Turkey has gained the strong upper hand in the current outcome, and Russia, in its hasty retreat, has suffered a devastating loss. Iran, however, appears to be the biggest loser, with its “forward defense” strategy in tatters, and Tehran itself now dangerously exposed to a potential Israeli attack on its nuclear program.
Amid this rapidly shifting balance of outside forces, Syrians will face an uphill power-sharing battle at home. HTS is a U.S.-designated terrorist group with little popularity in its home territory of Idlib. Thus far, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has been careful to take a conciliatory stance, not just with Syria’s many minorities but also with former regime officials. The question of whether this tone will remain and whether other insurgent groups and opposition factions will follow his lead is another question. As more Syrians return to the country, including various opposition leaders, there will be inevitable tensions. Many people may find their homes looted or new families living in them. Armed groups within Syria and the exiled opposition may struggle for power. For the moment, HTS appears to be pursuing an inclusive model of governance at the local level, bringing in minorities and those who never lived in opposition-controlled areas.
The rebel offensive was possible, in part, because of dynamics beyond Syria’s borders, including the dismantling of Hezbollah and the bottoming out of relations between Ankara and Damascus. Conversely, Assad’s demise will cause shock waves far beyond Syria. To secure a stable and unified country, urgent and sustained regional and international support will be needed to help Syrians restore order, establish a civilian government, encourage reconciliation and transitional justice, and start rebuilding a devastated country.
In the fall of 2012, when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the military power now in charge of Syria, was a mere minor terrorist organization, a band of their fighters in Aleppo took me prisoner. Back then they were known as Jabhat al-Nusra. I remained in the group’s custody for two years—often in solitary confinement cells, but not always. During this time, it often happened that news of some stupendous victory would make its way, via the fighters’ two-way radios, into our prisons. It was a surreal experience then to listen as a government checkpoint got blown into the sky, for instance, or a truckload of government troops fell into my captors’ hands.How will the new rulers treat minorities? There may be a gap between commanders want, and what actually happens on the ground.
What’s going on now, however, is surreal beyond anything I saw or heard when I was in Syria. I’ve spent the past few days watching my former captors’ wildest dreams come true.
When I was traveling with Jabhat al-Nusra, all the soldiers knew that on entering a new town, it was important to assure the residents, particularly the Christians among them, that the al-Qaeda men would ensure the smooth continuation of everyday life. Yet not all the soldiers who delivered this message had reconciled their hearts to it. Many of the villages within the army’s sphere of control were inhabited by people whose loyalty to Jabhat al-Nusra was of questionable authenticity. Many of the al-Qaeda soldiers believed that every time we passed through a seemingly friendly village, the villagers scurried to an inner room in their houses, phoned up the Syrian Air Force, then piped in a set of bombing coordinates.On recruitment of foreign fighters:
Maybe the Christians in Aleppo really believe in a new era of calm? Certainly, they hope for one. Yet over every scene in which members of a minority religion in Syria greet the conquerors, there hovers the feeling of the crocodile who smiles at the canary. The canaries in Syria tend to read the lay of the land well. They know that the crocodile cannot always contain himself. As soon as the minorities gather the necessary cash, and as soon as they have somewhere to go—which is to say, tomorrow, perhaps, but also, possibly, never—they will fly away.
Looking back now, I can see how dangerous a time this was for Aleppo. Half of the Jabhat al-Nusra army was cleaving off in order to form a new terrorist organization. This one was to be called The Islamic State. I know now that just then, the ISIS men were learning to speak of the Syrian bloodbath as if it were a field of dreams, as if a new era of Muslim power was dawning over the nation, as if anyone brave enough to venture out would be tested, and, if he passed the test, would be rewarded with wives, guns, and cash. Those young men were in flight from poverty. They were also in flight from the elder generation in Syria, which has tended to neglect the Koran and to kowtow to the regime. They dreamed of spiritual journeys, of an orderly life in harmony with the law of God, and strings of victories. At some point in 2013, ISIS began to produce videos of young Europeans on the ground in Syria who could speak this dream language well. As soon as those videos hit the social networks, the trickle of foreigners I had seen in my early days as a prisoner, in the fall of 2012 became a river.posted by russilwvong at 12:39 PM on December 9, 2024 [3 favorites]
Likewise, members of the old crew of Jabhat al-Nusra foreign fighters have today taken to posting their videos on social media. How long will it take for young men in Europe who nurture similar dreams to find these videos? My experience of the Europeans who came out to Syria was of youths undergoing a kind of a crisis. Some seemed a bit suicidal to me, some homicidal, and many, I felt, dreamed of doing both at once. My guess is that the Europeans whose thoughts have drifted along these lines in the past have already seen all they need to see. Now that the rebels are on every street corner in Syria—now that the nation no longer has border officers—the obstacles that once prevented a certain kind of young Londoner—or Parisian or Berliner—from making this kind of voyage of the spirit have fallen away. At the moment, it costs about $100 to travel from London to the Syrian border.
Maybe the Christians in Aleppo really believe in a new era of calm? Certainly, they hope for one. Yet over every scene in which members of a minority religion in Syria greet the conquerors, there hovers the feeling of the crocodile who smiles at the canary. The canaries in Syria tend to read the lay of the land well. They know that the crocodile cannot always contain himself. As soon as the minorities gather the necessary cash, and as soon as they have somewhere to go—which is to say, tomorrow, perhaps, but also, possibly, never—they will fly away.
The Kurds in the Aleppo enclaves have already fled along with their militias.
The Christians will be keeping their cards close to their chest.
The Jews certainly are never coming back.
The one thing that makes me optimistic is that the Druze chose to align with this coalition. I'm assuming they know things I don't.
posted by ocschwar at 1:07 PM on December 9, 2024 [1 favorite]
(I just woke up, and the following is belated. Apparently in the meantime, the Israelis have passed Quneitra, claimed the Syrian side of Mt Hermon, and apparently heading to Damascus. Hey, in case I haven't said it lately: Fuck Biden when it comes to this region.)
Assal Rad:
Watch StateSpox justify Israel’s invasion of Syria based on hypotheticals.
@shauntandon: Israel has gone across the Golan Heights, the UN said it’s a violation, does the US agree
Miller: Every country would be worried about a possible vacuum that could be filled by terrorist organizations on its border…Israel said it’s temporary
@humeyra_pamuk: Did they describe what ‘temporary’ would look like, is it 6 months, one year—
Miller: I’m not gonna get into those diplomatic conversations
Brian Finucane: "A reminder that the Reagan administration paused delivery of U.S. warplanes to Israel after the 1981 strike on Osiraq because the Israeli attack violated the UN Charter." (Not sure if typo or local spelling choice. You can find it under the Osirak reactor strike)
posted by cendawanita at 5:17 PM on December 9, 2024 [9 favorites]
Assal Rad:
Watch StateSpox justify Israel’s invasion of Syria based on hypotheticals.
@shauntandon: Israel has gone across the Golan Heights, the UN said it’s a violation, does the US agree
Miller: Every country would be worried about a possible vacuum that could be filled by terrorist organizations on its border…Israel said it’s temporary
@humeyra_pamuk: Did they describe what ‘temporary’ would look like, is it 6 months, one year—
Miller: I’m not gonna get into those diplomatic conversations
Brian Finucane: "A reminder that the Reagan administration paused delivery of U.S. warplanes to Israel after the 1981 strike on Osiraq because the Israeli attack violated the UN Charter." (Not sure if typo or local spelling choice. You can find it under the Osirak reactor strike)
posted by cendawanita at 5:17 PM on December 9, 2024 [9 favorites]
European countries suspend Syrian asylum decisions after Assad's fall -
The head of the UN refugee agency also cautioned that "patience and vigilance" were needed on the issue of refugee returns
(Germany, France, Britain, Italy named with others indicated)
posted by cendawanita at 5:40 PM on December 9, 2024 [3 favorites]
The head of the UN refugee agency also cautioned that "patience and vigilance" were needed on the issue of refugee returns
(Germany, France, Britain, Italy named with others indicated)
posted by cendawanita at 5:40 PM on December 9, 2024 [3 favorites]
Amazing to hear Qatar and Türkiye, who have spent the last decade arming and equipping militias in Syria which have held substantial territory suddenly so concerned about Syrian territorial integrity. I mean I get the point but I'm not sure I want to hear it from them!
I'm not saying that I blame the Turks, but either surrounding countries can have a "legitimate security interest" or they can't. I'd prefer that Syria was left alone and I don't think that a steady hail of air-strikes is going to improve the stability of whatever provisional government can be established but almost every bordering country and quite a few that don't border it has been conducting a complicated set of violent military operations in Syria for years now.
Brian Finucane: "A reminder that the Reagan administration paused delivery of U.S. warplanes to Israel after the 1981 strike on Osiraq because the Israeli attack violated the UN Charter." (Not sure if typo or local spelling choice. You can find it under the Osirak reactor strike)
They paused delivery because the Israelis did it without US permission, and the US was trying to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iraq to fight the Iranians.
Imagine the kind of mind that would look at the Reagan administration and think, "yeah, these guys were tremendously concerned about violations of the UN charter, why can't we got back to those absolute champions of human rights and a rules based international order?"
Now watch every European country race to strike a deal with the new Syrian government so they can send back all their Syrian refugees before the planned / inevitable German and French elections.
posted by atrazine at 6:22 AM on December 10, 2024
I'm not saying that I blame the Turks, but either surrounding countries can have a "legitimate security interest" or they can't. I'd prefer that Syria was left alone and I don't think that a steady hail of air-strikes is going to improve the stability of whatever provisional government can be established but almost every bordering country and quite a few that don't border it has been conducting a complicated set of violent military operations in Syria for years now.
Brian Finucane: "A reminder that the Reagan administration paused delivery of U.S. warplanes to Israel after the 1981 strike on Osiraq because the Israeli attack violated the UN Charter." (Not sure if typo or local spelling choice. You can find it under the Osirak reactor strike)
They paused delivery because the Israelis did it without US permission, and the US was trying to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iraq to fight the Iranians.
Imagine the kind of mind that would look at the Reagan administration and think, "yeah, these guys were tremendously concerned about violations of the UN charter, why can't we got back to those absolute champions of human rights and a rules based international order?"
Now watch every European country race to strike a deal with the new Syrian government so they can send back all their Syrian refugees before the planned / inevitable German and French elections.
posted by atrazine at 6:22 AM on December 10, 2024
I don't think they're even waiting for a deal. Asylum applications have now magically paused even reversed across the land....
posted by cendawanita at 6:24 AM on December 10, 2024 [2 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 6:24 AM on December 10, 2024 [2 favorites]
Anyway, yep the international free for all continues. Turkey is taking the opportunity to weaken the Kurdish people also -
Israel, US and Turkey launch strikes in Syria to protect interests
A couple more tweets from relative experts on that side of things (in lieu of actual news articles because Turkey is also another one specific to this that's not easy for me to quickly validate with a Google for news articles - because I've seasoned my algos for Palestine newsgathering and Turkish sources abound there):
Charles Lister:
Over the past week, almost all attention on #Syria has been directed at the #HTS/opposition vs. #Assad dynamic -- and the change of power in #Damascus.
Meanwhile, the #SDF in northeast #Syria has been dealt a tough hand of cards -- a 🧵:
Of note: The #SDF also found itself assuming control of resource-intensive areas in #Hasakeh & #Raqqa abandoned by #Assad -- good in theory, but it stretched resources while the #Turkey-backed #SNA launched offensive moves into Tel Rifat & then #Manbij. (...) Strategically, the #SDF is more vulnerable now than at any point of its 9yr existence -- as #Turkey now has zero restrictions on its potential desire to make a move on it along its border with #Syria.
#HTS doesn't want conflict, but the #SNA clearly does.
Karim Francheschi: Manbij MC retreats under US-brokered deal after inflicting heavy losses on Turkish-backed SNA's فجر الحرية [Fair al-Huriyya]. Fierce battle for Tishrin Dam ongoing. Unprecedented Turkish artillery & drone strikes, with Russia ceding airspace, made Manbij's defense unsustainable. #Syria
I welcome any more background knowledge on how to make sense on that side of the border especially. But anyway, even Israel's in on the Kurds:
Scharo Maroof: Rojava - AANES
Airstrikes reported in Qamishlo
A series of explosions airstrikes the area around Qamishlo airport where the Syrian regime was formerly stationed at and maintained extensive warehouses of military equipment.
These airstrikes match the pattern of Israeli airstrikes across Syria that have targeted former regime areas and warehouses.
Fog of war is too beyond my paygrade to make sense, and the political side is moving at relatively breakneck speed as well (apologies if I haven't provided unpaywalled either):
Economist: Exploiting disarray in Syria, Israel grabs more of the Golan Heights -
The incursions are neither justified nor necessary
FT: ‘Terrorist’ label of Syria’s new rulers will need to be reconsidered, says UN envoy -
Geir Pedersen warns there is ‘no way to exclude’ Islamist group that led offensive against Assad regime
Politico: US debates lifting terror designation for main Syrian rebel group -
The fall of Assad marks a seismic shift for the Middle East.
Mohammed al-Bashir: Who is Syria's new interim prime minister? -
The former engineer headed the HTS-controlled salvation government in Idlib before becoming interim premier
posted by cendawanita at 6:45 AM on December 10, 2024 [7 favorites]
Israel, US and Turkey launch strikes in Syria to protect interests
A couple more tweets from relative experts on that side of things (in lieu of actual news articles because Turkey is also another one specific to this that's not easy for me to quickly validate with a Google for news articles - because I've seasoned my algos for Palestine newsgathering and Turkish sources abound there):
Charles Lister:
Over the past week, almost all attention on #Syria has been directed at the #HTS/opposition vs. #Assad dynamic -- and the change of power in #Damascus.
Meanwhile, the #SDF in northeast #Syria has been dealt a tough hand of cards -- a 🧵:
Of note: The #SDF also found itself assuming control of resource-intensive areas in #Hasakeh & #Raqqa abandoned by #Assad -- good in theory, but it stretched resources while the #Turkey-backed #SNA launched offensive moves into Tel Rifat & then #Manbij. (...) Strategically, the #SDF is more vulnerable now than at any point of its 9yr existence -- as #Turkey now has zero restrictions on its potential desire to make a move on it along its border with #Syria.
#HTS doesn't want conflict, but the #SNA clearly does.
Karim Francheschi: Manbij MC retreats under US-brokered deal after inflicting heavy losses on Turkish-backed SNA's فجر الحرية [Fair al-Huriyya]. Fierce battle for Tishrin Dam ongoing. Unprecedented Turkish artillery & drone strikes, with Russia ceding airspace, made Manbij's defense unsustainable. #Syria
I welcome any more background knowledge on how to make sense on that side of the border especially. But anyway, even Israel's in on the Kurds:
Scharo Maroof: Rojava - AANES
Airstrikes reported in Qamishlo
A series of explosions airstrikes the area around Qamishlo airport where the Syrian regime was formerly stationed at and maintained extensive warehouses of military equipment.
These airstrikes match the pattern of Israeli airstrikes across Syria that have targeted former regime areas and warehouses.
Fog of war is too beyond my paygrade to make sense, and the political side is moving at relatively breakneck speed as well (apologies if I haven't provided unpaywalled either):
Economist: Exploiting disarray in Syria, Israel grabs more of the Golan Heights -
The incursions are neither justified nor necessary
FT: ‘Terrorist’ label of Syria’s new rulers will need to be reconsidered, says UN envoy -
Geir Pedersen warns there is ‘no way to exclude’ Islamist group that led offensive against Assad regime
Politico: US debates lifting terror designation for main Syrian rebel group -
The fall of Assad marks a seismic shift for the Middle East.
Mohammed al-Bashir: Who is Syria's new interim prime minister? -
The former engineer headed the HTS-controlled salvation government in Idlib before becoming interim premier
posted by cendawanita at 6:45 AM on December 10, 2024 [7 favorites]
If Israeli forces really are in Qatana, as some articles are saying, that's 15-25km east of Mt. Hermon (its base, and peak) and 20km west of central Damascus (driving distances).
That seems like a very extended position. I can't imagine Israel thinks it can enclose the entire area west of the M-7 to the DMZ. That's a 55km frontier to the '74 lines.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:47 AM on December 10, 2024
That seems like a very extended position. I can't imagine Israel thinks it can enclose the entire area west of the M-7 to the DMZ. That's a 55km frontier to the '74 lines.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:47 AM on December 10, 2024
Israel, US and Turkey launch strikes in Syria to protect interests
If China bombed Silicon Valley to reduce competition in the microchip market, I doubt the western media would report it as:
China Launches Strikes In California To Protect Interests
posted by Lemkin at 7:24 AM on December 10, 2024 [9 favorites]
If China bombed Silicon Valley to reduce competition in the microchip market, I doubt the western media would report it as:
China Launches Strikes In California To Protect Interests
posted by Lemkin at 7:24 AM on December 10, 2024 [9 favorites]
I can't imagine Israel thinks it can enclose the entire area west of the M-7 to the DMZ.
With God, all things are possible.
posted by Lemkin at 7:25 AM on December 10, 2024
With God, all things are possible.
posted by Lemkin at 7:25 AM on December 10, 2024
That seems like a very extended position. I can't imagine Israel thinks it can enclose the entire area west of the M-7 to the DMZ. That's a 55km frontier to the '74 lines.
It's a pretty eloquent was to say "be nice, or we give the Druze more ammo than they'll know what to do with."
posted by ocschwar at 7:50 AM on December 10, 2024
It's a pretty eloquent was to say "be nice, or we give the Druze more ammo than they'll know what to do with."
posted by ocschwar at 7:50 AM on December 10, 2024
Which Druze? Sources I'm reading indicate they've largely threw in their lot with the rest of Syria?
posted by cendawanita at 7:57 AM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by cendawanita at 7:57 AM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
The Druze are in the portion of Syria right next to where the IDF just waltzed in.
They did throw their lot with the coalition. Now the IDF can say "if that deal goes sour, give us a shout."
posted by ocschwar at 8:05 AM on December 10, 2024
They did throw their lot with the coalition. Now the IDF can say "if that deal goes sour, give us a shout."
posted by ocschwar at 8:05 AM on December 10, 2024
Would that be before or after they take stock of what's happening with the Kurds right now?
posted by cendawanita at 8:06 AM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by cendawanita at 8:06 AM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
I really don't think that's likely oschwar, they know that in the long term, the Druze only have themselves so they won't come out and ally openly like that. They will be incredibly careful and in room-reading mood seeing what shakes out. Vulnerable religious groups don't really have a choice and that kind of bold side taking is a strategy that repeated over a long enough time horizon leads to their disappearance.
Much more likely is:
a) they're not nearly as far as that, someone is confused about what they saw
b) they were there to do something targeted (collecting an asset or their family from within the old regime) but now they're not there.
c) they were there to show that they could but have since pulled back (but not in a way that has anything to do with the Druze)
Also sort of darkly amusing to see the scramble to de-list HTS as terrorists now that they're winning. The world's fastest deradicalization process!
If China bombed Silicon Valley to reduce competition in the microchip market, I doubt the western media would report it as:
China Launches Strikes In California To Protect Interests
Definitely not but it must be nice for the Turkish to continue their promotion from semi-periphery back up to core. They get to carry out rational actions now, they have Interests that can be Protected. You'll now they've really made it in when an airstrike goes really wrong and they're allowed to Deeply Regret which is only permitted for the real core countries.
posted by atrazine at 9:14 AM on December 10, 2024 [3 favorites]
Much more likely is:
a) they're not nearly as far as that, someone is confused about what they saw
b) they were there to do something targeted (collecting an asset or their family from within the old regime) but now they're not there.
c) they were there to show that they could but have since pulled back (but not in a way that has anything to do with the Druze)
Also sort of darkly amusing to see the scramble to de-list HTS as terrorists now that they're winning. The world's fastest deradicalization process!
If China bombed Silicon Valley to reduce competition in the microchip market, I doubt the western media would report it as:
China Launches Strikes In California To Protect Interests
Definitely not but it must be nice for the Turkish to continue their promotion from semi-periphery back up to core. They get to carry out rational actions now, they have Interests that can be Protected. You'll now they've really made it in when an airstrike goes really wrong and they're allowed to Deeply Regret which is only permitted for the real core countries.
posted by atrazine at 9:14 AM on December 10, 2024 [3 favorites]
(but not in a way that has anything to do with the Druze)
Neither the IDF nor the Druze have to say anything. A physical supply line to the Druze exists. The IDF's ability to use it is established. Speech is worth silver. Silence worth gold.
posted by ocschwar at 9:33 AM on December 10, 2024
Neither the IDF nor the Druze have to say anything. A physical supply line to the Druze exists. The IDF's ability to use it is established. Speech is worth silver. Silence worth gold.
posted by ocschwar at 9:33 AM on December 10, 2024
I haven't read through these but these came linked/recced by people/accounts I largely have no major issues with (adjusting for their respective biases of course). I got swamped with RL and the other thing I'm collecting news for, but these sounds like interesting additions to the thread:
2022 New Lines article: Tangled Tale of the Fugitive Nazi and the Syrian Secret Service -
Nazi war criminal Alois Brunner lived in hiding in Damascus for decades. Israel failed to kill him twice — when he was finally punished, it was by the very Syrian regime he served for so long
New name to me, doesn't seem too crank-y, sharing for the commentary on Turkish interests that I also want to read up on - Firas Modad: Syria and the coming chaos -
With Assad gone, Türkiye is the only significant decisionmaker. Israel, Gulf Arab states, and Iran may collaborate to act as spoilers.
New to me, media outfit covering Iran, Iraq, and other countries along the peninsula: Amwaj Media: Inside story: Hezbollah, Iran and the downfall of Assad
Interesting because what I managed to read through seems to go hand-in-hand with this Diwan article (that's the Carnegie Middle East Center's magazine): Why Did Iran Allow Bashar al-Assad’s Downfall?. And the author just commented on this Twitter thread about leaked communications from Israel to Assad's National Security Office in 2022 (machine translation).
posted by cendawanita at 10:02 AM on December 10, 2024 [2 favorites]
2022 New Lines article: Tangled Tale of the Fugitive Nazi and the Syrian Secret Service -
Nazi war criminal Alois Brunner lived in hiding in Damascus for decades. Israel failed to kill him twice — when he was finally punished, it was by the very Syrian regime he served for so long
New name to me, doesn't seem too crank-y, sharing for the commentary on Turkish interests that I also want to read up on - Firas Modad: Syria and the coming chaos -
With Assad gone, Türkiye is the only significant decisionmaker. Israel, Gulf Arab states, and Iran may collaborate to act as spoilers.
New to me, media outfit covering Iran, Iraq, and other countries along the peninsula: Amwaj Media: Inside story: Hezbollah, Iran and the downfall of Assad
Interesting because what I managed to read through seems to go hand-in-hand with this Diwan article (that's the Carnegie Middle East Center's magazine): Why Did Iran Allow Bashar al-Assad’s Downfall?. And the author just commented on this Twitter thread about leaked communications from Israel to Assad's National Security Office in 2022 (machine translation).
posted by cendawanita at 10:02 AM on December 10, 2024 [2 favorites]
Oh Hassan I. Hassan has a much more clear analysis of those leaked documents, for an outsider like me: it seems that there was an Russia-Israel plan in place that staved off Israel's direct attacks on Syria - ...For years, Russia mediated a process designed to allow Assad’s military to function while limiting Iran & Hezbollah's ability to expand militarily in Syria. This mechanism required Israel to avoid certain strikes if these limitations were enforced.
(ICYMI, just before the fall of Damascus, he was on a townhall hosted by Mehdi Hasan over at Zeteo)
posted by cendawanita at 10:18 AM on December 10, 2024 [3 favorites]
(ICYMI, just before the fall of Damascus, he was on a townhall hosted by Mehdi Hasan over at Zeteo)
posted by cendawanita at 10:18 AM on December 10, 2024 [3 favorites]
I can't imagine Israel thinks it can enclose the entire area west of the M-7 to the DMZ.
With God, all things are possible.
Care to elucidate what you meant by that?
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:29 AM on December 10, 2024
With God, all things are possible.
Care to elucidate what you meant by that?
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:29 AM on December 10, 2024
Care to elucidate what you meant by that?
It was a facetious commentary on Israel’s apparent sense that it is doing the Lord’s work.
Admittedly, the humor is muddled by it being a New Testament quote rather than an Old Testament one.
posted by Lemkin at 11:40 AM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
It was a facetious commentary on Israel’s apparent sense that it is doing the Lord’s work.
Admittedly, the humor is muddled by it being a New Testament quote rather than an Old Testament one.
posted by Lemkin at 11:40 AM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
The 'humor' is muddled by it being in approximately as good taste as 'inshallah' or 'deus vult' when a nominally whichever nation-state does something objectionable.
The present moment is quite plainly about realpolitik, last I checked this is not land that even the most deluded 'Greater Israel' types lay Biblical claim to.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:00 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
The present moment is quite plainly about realpolitik, last I checked this is not land that even the most deluded 'Greater Israel' types lay Biblical claim to.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:00 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
last I checked this is not land that even the most deluded 'Greater Israel' types lay Biblical claim to
America does not lay Biblical claim to any of the places it occupies either. Nevertheless, there is an understood sense that Jesus is on our side and approves of what we do.
posted by Lemkin at 2:34 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
America does not lay Biblical claim to any of the places it occupies either. Nevertheless, there is an understood sense that Jesus is on our side and approves of what we do.
posted by Lemkin at 2:34 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
Who are the main actors in the fall of the regime in Syria?
I found this Guardian explainer while trying to figure out who actually went into Damascus. "Syrian Rebels" is such an unhelpful phrase. Reading western media, it seems like the "Southern Operations Room" was literally formed this weekend and that they were working with the Assad regime until they weren't?
posted by GalaxieFiveHundred at 3:47 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
I found this Guardian explainer while trying to figure out who actually went into Damascus. "Syrian Rebels" is such an unhelpful phrase. Reading western media, it seems like the "Southern Operations Room" was literally formed this weekend and that they were working with the Assad regime until they weren't?
posted by GalaxieFiveHundred at 3:47 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
A few days old from the Bad Place, but a classic tweet
"Bashir Al-Assad succumbed to the global anti-incumbent trend driven by inflation"
posted by lalochezia at 3:59 PM on December 10, 2024 [6 favorites]
"Bashir Al-Assad succumbed to the global anti-incumbent trend driven by inflation"
posted by lalochezia at 3:59 PM on December 10, 2024 [6 favorites]
2022 New Lines article: Tangled Tale of the Fugitive Nazi and the Syrian Secret Service -
Nazi war criminal Alois Brunner lived in hiding in Damascus for decades. Israel failed to kill him twice — when he was finally punished, it was by the very Syrian regime he served for so long
If you want to know how the Sednaya prison (and before that the Tadmur) had equipment for streamlined executions and the disposal of bodies, now you know. It was Brunner.
posted by ocschwar at 4:15 PM on December 10, 2024 [1 favorite]
If you have low blood pressure currently, highly recommend watching clips from the daily press briefings at the US WH or State Dept.
Assal Rad:
Biden, like Trump, continues to trash international law for Israel.
@tombateman: You said last year that as a practical matter the Golan is important to Israel as long as Assad is in power…has that changed
Miller: Obviously the factual situation has changed…but there still is a security threat
Tom: Do you recognize as a legal matter Israel’s control over the Golan
Miller: That was a decision made by the previous administration and a contradictory legal determination hasn’t been made since
This is of course super darkly funny because I thought Biden is committed to fighting Russians and its allies. Love makes you do loopy things. Like treat other people like chess pieces. Hmmm like another world leader that just got summarily deposed over the weekend....
posted by cendawanita at 6:31 PM on December 10, 2024 [3 favorites]
Assal Rad:
Biden, like Trump, continues to trash international law for Israel.
@tombateman: You said last year that as a practical matter the Golan is important to Israel as long as Assad is in power…has that changed
Miller: Obviously the factual situation has changed…but there still is a security threat
Tom: Do you recognize as a legal matter Israel’s control over the Golan
Miller: That was a decision made by the previous administration and a contradictory legal determination hasn’t been made since
This is of course super darkly funny because I thought Biden is committed to fighting Russians and its allies. Love makes you do loopy things. Like treat other people like chess pieces. Hmmm like another world leader that just got summarily deposed over the weekend....
posted by cendawanita at 6:31 PM on December 10, 2024 [3 favorites]
Genuinely surprised Americans working on this region were actually allowed to work on and gain a ceasefire (maybe Biden wasn't looking since busy with Gallant in the WH):
#Syria: the military leader of the #SDF reports that the Americans have been able to negotiate a ceasefire in eastern #Aleppo province.
The SDF will fully withdraw from the areas around Manbij and west of the Euphrates, in return the SNA will stop attacking Kobane. (QTing Mazloum Abdi's Arabic twt)
posted by cendawanita at 10:14 PM on December 10, 2024 [4 favorites]
#Syria: the military leader of the #SDF reports that the Americans have been able to negotiate a ceasefire in eastern #Aleppo province.
The SDF will fully withdraw from the areas around Manbij and west of the Euphrates, in return the SNA will stop attacking Kobane. (QTing Mazloum Abdi's Arabic twt)
posted by cendawanita at 10:14 PM on December 10, 2024 [4 favorites]
I'd equate Israel's actions here with Russia claiming 1/3rd of Ukraine for itself as a "buffer zone".
I think that neighboring countries have a stronger claim to taking Israeli territory as a buffer zone than Israel does of taking their land.
posted by constraint at 11:52 PM on December 10, 2024 [5 favorites]
I think that neighboring countries have a stronger claim to taking Israeli territory as a buffer zone than Israel does of taking their land.
posted by constraint at 11:52 PM on December 10, 2024 [5 favorites]
The particular domino that strikes me, is how many disparate forces were on the periphery, that mobilized the instant Iran/Hezbollah didn’t back Assad. What are the best historical examples for negotiating a functional peace from such disparate interests (each of whom, will control a fiefdom when the situation stabilizes)?
posted by rubatan at 12:12 AM on December 11, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by rubatan at 12:12 AM on December 11, 2024 [3 favorites]
For fourth day in a row | Israeli fighter jets destroy weapons of Syrian regime army, bringing the number of airstrikes to over 352 in 13 Syrian provinces
Israel has conducted its heaviest strikes in Syria since the collapse of Bashar Assad's regime, attacking more than 100 targets across the country in less than 12 hours. Strikes were "the heaviest in the history of Syria."
I don't think I've seen Syrian Observatory for Human Rights cited above, though its often the documentation other sources are using (wiki background, 2011 BBC profile)
posted by rubatan at 2:11 AM on December 11, 2024 [2 favorites]
Israel has conducted its heaviest strikes in Syria since the collapse of Bashar Assad's regime, attacking more than 100 targets across the country in less than 12 hours. Strikes were "the heaviest in the history of Syria."
I don't think I've seen Syrian Observatory for Human Rights cited above, though its often the documentation other sources are using (wiki background, 2011 BBC profile)
posted by rubatan at 2:11 AM on December 11, 2024 [2 favorites]
I highly recommend the article cendawanita linked to above "Why Did Iran Allow Bashar al-Assad’s Downfall?" It's incredible the level of investment Iran put into the Assad regime ($30–50 billion in funding, Quds Forces, multiple high ranking generals killed, years of building alliances with various ethnic groups) to support its regional goals. Now all that is lost and what they're left with is the hope that they can somehow take advantage of the possible chaos that will ensue if HTS can't stabilize the country.
I imagine there is a similar analysis for Russia.
posted by gwint at 8:50 AM on December 11, 2024 [4 favorites]
I imagine there is a similar analysis for Russia.
posted by gwint at 8:50 AM on December 11, 2024 [4 favorites]
Why did Israel turn an unlikely bedfellow in Syria into a new enemy? Analysis by John Lyons (Australian ABC)
posted by freethefeet at 3:03 PM on December 11, 2024
posted by freethefeet at 3:03 PM on December 11, 2024
This CNN report on a prisoner being freed is absolutely stunning.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 7:08 PM on December 11, 2024 [6 favorites]
posted by the duck by the oboe at 7:08 PM on December 11, 2024 [6 favorites]
I really wanted to believe that one was true but apparently it was staged, the duck by the oboe.
posted by freethefeet at 2:16 PM on December 14, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by freethefeet at 2:16 PM on December 14, 2024 [1 favorite]
Speculation of a Russian Deal to have Assad fall quickly. (Australian ABC)
posted by freethefeet at 2:23 PM on December 14, 2024
posted by freethefeet at 2:23 PM on December 14, 2024
CW: Descriptions of torture
posted by y2karl at 9:42 PM on December 14, 2024 [4 favorites]
..."Every time we had a shower, every time we had a visitor, every time we went out into the sun, every time we left the cell door we would be punished," says 30-year-old Rakan Mohammed Al Saed, who says he was detained in 2020 on allegations of killing and kidnapping from his former days in the rebel Free Syrian Army but had never faced trial.BBC: 'I felt like a breathing corpse': Stories from people freed from Syria torture prison
He bares his broken teeth, saying they were knocked out when he was hit in the mouth by a guard with a stick.
All of the men we spoke to said they believed people in their cells had been executed.
Guards would come in and call names of people who would be led away and never seen again.
"People wouldn't be executed in front of us. Every time they would call names at 12am, we knew that those people were going to be killed," Adnan says.
Others gave similar accounts, explaining there was no way of them knowing what happened to these men.
posted by y2karl at 9:42 PM on December 14, 2024 [4 favorites]
I really wanted to believe that one was true but apparently it was staged, the duck by the oboe.
posted by freethefeet 9 hours ago [1 favorite +] [⚑]
But is it faked? I'm certainly open to the idea that it is, but that source offers no real evidence and Wikipedia says PressTV is Iranian state owned.
posted by latkes at 12:09 AM on December 15, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by freethefeet 9 hours ago [1 favorite +] [⚑]
But is it faked? I'm certainly open to the idea that it is, but that source offers no real evidence and Wikipedia says PressTV is Iranian state owned.
posted by latkes at 12:09 AM on December 15, 2024 [3 favorites]
Yeah, sorry, the evidence that Saydnaya prison was solely for imprisoning, torturing, raping, and ultimately killing political prisoners and their families is overwhelming. The evidence that Assad used chemical weapons on Syrian people is overwhelming. The evidence that the people of Syria wanted him gone is overwhelming. The evidence that Assad was a good guy who should have just been left alone, and without interference from various people you dislike everything would have been fine in Syria, is just non-existent.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:13 AM on December 15, 2024 [3 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 4:13 AM on December 15, 2024 [3 favorites]
Well, this is all a bit awkward. The prisoner CNN reported on was in fact a Syrian intelligence officer. Either they got hoodwinked or something else. Either way they have some explaining to do.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 3:05 PM on December 16, 2024 [1 favorite]
posted by the duck by the oboe at 3:05 PM on December 16, 2024 [1 favorite]
Most violent round of airstrikes continues as Israel destroys coastal facilities
Israel’s Unprecedented 2024 Airstrikes Against Lebanon, Iran And Syria
Israel’s Unprecedented 2024 Airstrikes Against Lebanon, Iran And Syria
Each of these operations was highly significant, but the fact they all occurred within a mere three months is without precedent in a region that has endured decades of seemingly endless wars.posted by rubatan at 4:12 PM on December 16, 2024 [4 favorites]
This popped up on my YT feed.
Millions of Captagon pills have been discovered in warehouses across Syria after toppling of regime
Captagon is Fenethylline. Never heard of either.
posted by Glinn at 4:43 PM on December 16, 2024
Millions of Captagon pills have been discovered in warehouses across Syria after toppling of regime
Captagon is Fenethylline. Never heard of either.
posted by Glinn at 4:43 PM on December 16, 2024
I once knew a guy who got busted in Turkey for manufacturing Captagon, circa early 2000s. IIRC, his actual mistake was in manufacturing it locally, rather than simply importing from Syria/Iraq/Lebanon, so he got nailed by the paper trail of precursors (Theophylline) going straight to a "pesticide" company. His sons spun it as a political matter ("since it wasn't technically illegal at the time") which is probably true insofar as he got busted for not paying the right people (or paying the wrong people), but at the same time it really was technically illegal.
...he learned his craft in Bulgaria, which I find oddly amusing given how many Bulgarians still hate Turkey (seriously, go hang out around Rila, and be surprised at how many times "the Ottoman yoke" comes up in conversation).
Also, he only got 5 years, and I think served 3 while retaining the bulk of his business empire (maybe he did pay some of the right people after all?) Both of his sons were, by themselves, really nice generous guys.
posted by aramaic at 5:15 PM on December 16, 2024 [3 favorites]
...he learned his craft in Bulgaria, which I find oddly amusing given how many Bulgarians still hate Turkey (seriously, go hang out around Rila, and be surprised at how many times "the Ottoman yoke" comes up in conversation).
Also, he only got 5 years, and I think served 3 while retaining the bulk of his business empire (maybe he did pay some of the right people after all?) Both of his sons were, by themselves, really nice generous guys.
posted by aramaic at 5:15 PM on December 16, 2024 [3 favorites]
The prisoner CNN reported on was in fact a Syrian intelligence officer. Either they got hoodwinked or something else. Either way they have some explaining to do.
In ways great and small, Syria is the litmus test that exposes everyone
posted by cendawanita at 9:41 PM on December 16, 2024 [4 favorites]
In ways great and small, Syria is the litmus test that exposes everyone
posted by cendawanita at 9:41 PM on December 16, 2024 [4 favorites]
Biggish news and pieces not yet shared here:
Israel plans to expand Golan settlements after fall of Assad
Germany prods Israel to abandon Golan Heights plan
Impact Of Israel's Heaviest Bomb Strikes In Syria Registered On Richter Scale: Report - The Israeli bomb explosion took place in northwestern Syria near the city of Tartus with a giant mushroom cloud fireball visible in the aftermath.
Syria's de facto leader not interested in new conflicts despite Israeli attacks - Syria's de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa said on Saturday Israel is using false pretexts to justify its attacks on Syria, but that he is not interested in engaging in new conflicts as the country focuses on rebuilding following the end of Bashar al-Assad's reign.
The balance of power is shifting in the Middle East – and it is Turkey’s ‘full moon’ on the rise
(Absolutely unrelated:
The SNA controlled Manbij for hardly a week and people are already begging the HTS to come take over the governance of the town.
The SNA's incompetence as a serious force on display once again. (with screenshot of letter in Arabic))
Exclusive: A conversation with the commander of the US-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces -
The World’s Shirin Jaafari speaks with Syrian Democratic Forces commander General Mazloum Abdi in an exclusive interview about what’s next for the Kurdish group as Syria transitions into post-Assad rule.
Syrian mass graves expose Assad’s ‘machinery of death’
True scale of Assad’s slaughter revealed at Syrian mass grave (UK Channel 4 video report)
Israel did not want Assad removed from power, US officials tell Turkey
Assad allegedly hands list of military targets over to Israel before leaving Syria — media
According to the Turkish newspaper [Hurriyet], the former Syrian president did it to ensure his own safety (note, this is from Russia's public news service)
Or: Russia is fuelling rumours on Assad's secret dealings with Israel -
Russia's state news agency is promoting rumours in the Turkish press that Assad struck a secret deal with Israel to allow him to flee the country
posted by cendawanita at 9:05 PM on December 19, 2024 [5 favorites]
Israel plans to expand Golan settlements after fall of Assad
Germany prods Israel to abandon Golan Heights plan
Impact Of Israel's Heaviest Bomb Strikes In Syria Registered On Richter Scale: Report - The Israeli bomb explosion took place in northwestern Syria near the city of Tartus with a giant mushroom cloud fireball visible in the aftermath.
Syria's de facto leader not interested in new conflicts despite Israeli attacks - Syria's de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa said on Saturday Israel is using false pretexts to justify its attacks on Syria, but that he is not interested in engaging in new conflicts as the country focuses on rebuilding following the end of Bashar al-Assad's reign.
The balance of power is shifting in the Middle East – and it is Turkey’s ‘full moon’ on the rise
(Absolutely unrelated:
The SNA controlled Manbij for hardly a week and people are already begging the HTS to come take over the governance of the town.
The SNA's incompetence as a serious force on display once again. (with screenshot of letter in Arabic))
Exclusive: A conversation with the commander of the US-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces -
The World’s Shirin Jaafari speaks with Syrian Democratic Forces commander General Mazloum Abdi in an exclusive interview about what’s next for the Kurdish group as Syria transitions into post-Assad rule.
Syrian mass graves expose Assad’s ‘machinery of death’
True scale of Assad’s slaughter revealed at Syrian mass grave (UK Channel 4 video report)
Israel did not want Assad removed from power, US officials tell Turkey
Assad allegedly hands list of military targets over to Israel before leaving Syria — media
According to the Turkish newspaper [Hurriyet], the former Syrian president did it to ensure his own safety (note, this is from Russia's public news service)
Or: Russia is fuelling rumours on Assad's secret dealings with Israel -
Russia's state news agency is promoting rumours in the Turkish press that Assad struck a secret deal with Israel to allow him to flee the country
posted by cendawanita at 9:05 PM on December 19, 2024 [5 favorites]
There are rumors circulating in the tabloid press that an attempt to poison Assad failed. Also that his wife filed for divorce and attempted to go to the UK, which purportedly refused her despite dual citizenship.
The divorce filings were denied by the Kremlin around Christmas, and none of it has been reported by anything 'mainstream' in US or Euro media yet (except the Kremlin's denial).
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:24 AM on January 4
The divorce filings were denied by the Kremlin around Christmas, and none of it has been reported by anything 'mainstream' in US or Euro media yet (except the Kremlin's denial).
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:24 AM on January 4
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posted by lalochezia at 3:17 AM on December 8, 2024 [42 favorites]