By March of 2023, it was clear that the next big thing had arrived in AI
January 20, 2025 6:29 AM Subscribe
This post was deleted for the following reason: Posters request -- travelingthyme
QFT: "Pro tip: Just because you heard about a new idea this last year or two doesn’t mean that people haven’t been working on that very same idea for decades. So temper your expectations that it must be about to transform the world. Ideas that transform the world take decades, or centuries of development, and plenty of people long before you have been just as excited about the idea and had thought it was on the verge of taking off. And none of us, including you and me, are likely to be special enough or lucky enough to come along at just the right time to see it all happen."
posted by chavenet at 6:49 AM on January 20 [1 favorite]
posted by chavenet at 6:49 AM on January 20 [1 favorite]
(For anyone else who, like me, started skimming the results and missed part of the explanatory key, "NET [date]" in the prediction chart means "No Earlier Than [date]," so those get to be marked as accurate predictions (in green) once that date has passed and the event/achievement hasn't occurred.)
(The entries that say "BY [date]" are the only ones that positively predicted something will happen within a certain timespan.)
posted by nobody at 7:07 AM on January 20
(The entries that say "BY [date]" are the only ones that positively predicted something will happen within a certain timespan.)
posted by nobody at 7:07 AM on January 20
Just because you heard about a new idea this last year or two doesn’t mean that people haven’t been working on that very same idea for decades.
Variants on this are a thing I trot out every time someone brings up model collapse, or the current limitations of reasoning, etc.: every researcher active in the field was aware of the problems and the potential solutions years before anyone not actively working in it. If you want to read their proposed solutions you can read the latest papers or hit up AI Explained on Youtube for weekly roundups on the big new papers + model reviews and industry fluff. And if you want to hear about the problems that haven’t been solved yet, not even in theory, you have to attend conferences or work within a major ML group.
Rodney Brooks - very specifically the coverage of his work at MIT’s Robotics Lab in Popular Science - was the reason I became interested in neural networks in the late 90s and joined RPI’s Minds and Machines program. And while I eventually dropped out and went into gamedev, I’ve never lost my interest in the topic. I don’t have heroes per se, but Brooks was definitely an inspiration and so I was greatly pleased to see this at the end of the article:
Let’s hope this tradition continues. Let’s hope the billionaire founder/CEO of SpaceX will be onboard the first crewed flight of Starship to Mars, and that it happens sooner than I expect. We can all cheer for that.
A-freaking-men.
posted by Ryvar at 8:03 AM on January 20 [1 favorite]
Variants on this are a thing I trot out every time someone brings up model collapse, or the current limitations of reasoning, etc.: every researcher active in the field was aware of the problems and the potential solutions years before anyone not actively working in it. If you want to read their proposed solutions you can read the latest papers or hit up AI Explained on Youtube for weekly roundups on the big new papers + model reviews and industry fluff. And if you want to hear about the problems that haven’t been solved yet, not even in theory, you have to attend conferences or work within a major ML group.
Rodney Brooks - very specifically the coverage of his work at MIT’s Robotics Lab in Popular Science - was the reason I became interested in neural networks in the late 90s and joined RPI’s Minds and Machines program. And while I eventually dropped out and went into gamedev, I’ve never lost my interest in the topic. I don’t have heroes per se, but Brooks was definitely an inspiration and so I was greatly pleased to see this at the end of the article:
Let’s hope this tradition continues. Let’s hope the billionaire founder/CEO of SpaceX will be onboard the first crewed flight of Starship to Mars, and that it happens sooner than I expect. We can all cheer for that.
A-freaking-men.
posted by Ryvar at 8:03 AM on January 20 [1 favorite]
« Older My Unsung Hero | Do Not Obey In Advance Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by justkevin at 6:35 AM on January 20