"The blast radius of this terrible decision is virtually limitless."
January 28, 2025 10:06 AM   Subscribe

Legal battle looms (AP, NYT) after Trump freezes federal grant funding (Reuters, WaPo). Originally reported by Marisa Kabas (The Handbasket), Steve Vladeck offers an explainer (One First) on the 1974 Impoundment Control Act and related constitutional issues. The freeze has already been challenged in a lawsuit (Reuters).

The list of programs affected includes the Department of Agriculture’s tribal food sovereignty program, Head Start, the Veterans’ Affairs Department’s suicide prevention and legal services grants, the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance, or LIHEAP, program, Meals on Wheels, and numerous sexual assault prevention programs within the Department of Justice.
posted by box (322 comments total) 43 users marked this as a favorite
 
"I don't want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub."

- Grover Norquist, 2001
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 10:12 AM on January 28 [34 favorites]


E Pluribus Unum -> The blast radius of this terrible decision is virtually limitless
posted by Going To Maine at 10:13 AM on January 28 [14 favorites]


Imagine being in some kind of NIH study and waking up to learn maybe you're cut off of treatment midstream.

This also freezes a variety of foreign aid and public health efforts, for example AIDS medication already distributed has been ordered to remain shelved, mine removal efforts have been frozen.
posted by kensington314 at 10:14 AM on January 28 [14 favorites]


I'm rooting for a severe brain aneurysm, but I think maybe something with more prolonged suffering is justifiable.
posted by hairless ape at 10:14 AM on January 28 [72 favorites]


What this reminds me most of is actually the Muslim ban, which he billed a "total shutdown" of Muslim travel "until we can figure out what the hell is going on."

Big important man puts the brakes on immediately so he can bigly and importantly sort out what's happening. Big important man is the big important boss.
posted by kensington314 at 10:17 AM on January 28 [34 favorites]


Imagine being in some kind of NIH study and waking up to learn maybe you're cut off of treatment midstream.

This is already happening. There's a post circulating (and I have no way to confirm its truth or accuracy, but I have no reason to doubt it) from a person suffering from a rare condition that, up until now, has been treated by an NIH study. They explain, sadly but calmly, that if the study is defunded they will no longer be able to receive treatment and will die within two years.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:18 AM on January 28 [20 favorites]


At the major university where I work we got two mass emails today, one assuring us that nothing has changed as of yet and everyone should carry on as normal, and then a second email two hours later letting us know that there is an open search for a General Counsel.
posted by coffeecat at 10:19 AM on January 28 [50 favorites]


It's another push against the guardrails to see what SCOTUS will allow Trump to do and what he can't.

You'd think this was cut-and-dried. Congress approved a lot of these funds and they can't be yanked away like Lucy's football. But here we are, and here we go...
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:20 AM on January 28 [46 favorites]


Thank you for this thread. I'm kind of freaking out a bit this morning; this is quite horrific.
posted by mygothlaundry at 10:20 AM on January 28 [29 favorites]


What I want to know is who, and I know it must be multiple people, are the real authors of these “executive” orders. They are the ones responsible for all this, and we need to know who they are.
posted by njohnson23 at 10:22 AM on January 28 [38 favorites]


Stephen Miller is no doubt involved - see recent NYTimes reporting.
posted by coffeecat at 10:24 AM on January 28 [14 favorites]


Here's the actual memo.
posted by kensington314 at 10:28 AM on January 28 [2 favorites]


Text message from my sister in the US said that my mom--whose sole source of income is her Social Security--called her saying they were reducing her SS amount, to which then I get the panicked text about this all the way up here in Canada, and it's frustrating because I am asking my sister (not my mom, she has Alzheimer's) for a verifiable news source. Like, there is so much disinformation in the US especially, who told her she was getting less? Did she see something on TV and just made an assumption?
posted by Kitteh at 10:31 AM on January 28 [10 favorites]


This is going to kill people and will likely crash the economy if the full pause is held for some time, I don’t see how it doesn’t.

It is impossible to understand the full scope of the damage being done right now.
posted by glaucon at 10:31 AM on January 28 [34 favorites]


It's another push against the guardrails to see what SCOTUS will allow Trump to do and what he can't.

Looking at the immunity decision and other recent SCOTUS insanity, you could easily see them upholding this -- Congress has exercised their control over spending via the budget process, and they cannot pass an impoundment law that prevents the President from exercising his power to execute that spending as he sees fit. It only sounds stupid to an honest person.

Truly think the long-term play here is the President makes ad-hoc funding decisions that allow him to look like Father Christmas for the next four years, every single Federal dollar becomes an act of altruism by the big man with the big wallet. Merit-based though, of course.
posted by kensington314 at 10:33 AM on January 28 [17 favorites]


I know a medical researcher who got laid off on Friday due to last weeks NIH communications freeze. The consequences are immediate.
posted by surlyben at 10:36 AM on January 28 [25 favorites]


This is freaking me the fuck out. I'm not on any sort of government assistance but there are so many people in Philadelphia who are, and who are likely to be royally fucked by this. He is such an evil, evil man and I am absolutely boiling with anger at the people who voted for him.
posted by grumpybear69 at 10:36 AM on January 28 [33 favorites]


Senator Ron Wyden just said on Bluesky that he has confirmation that the Medicaid portals in all 50 states have been shut down. Lots of people arguing about that, saying they can get in. I think he is talking about federal level back end portals rather than state / individual portals maybe? The comments are - fire emoji.
posted by mygothlaundry at 10:36 AM on January 28 [5 favorites]


I am soooooooooooo glad I am not in my old job right now. I'm sure the phones are ringing off the hook with panicked people, and the staff will have NO idea what to say or what is going on, and the financial departments, oh good god.

I can't even conceive of the devastation that is going to go on if this isn't blocked immediately. Someone said "Great Annihilation" on Reddit, and that sounds about right.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:37 AM on January 28 [5 favorites]


I'm rooting for a severe brain aneurysm, but I think maybe something with more prolonged suffering is justifiable.

I mean yes, but Trump is not in fact the person writing or issuing these, so . . . it's gonna take more than that.
posted by aspersioncast at 10:38 AM on January 28 [14 favorites]


This is already happening. There's a post circulating (and I have no way to confirm its truth or accuracy, but I have no reason to doubt it) from a person suffering from a rare condition that, up until now, has been treated by an NIH study. They explain, sadly but calmly, that if the study is defunded they will no longer be able to receive treatment and will die within two years.

How do they know this will work but the NIH doesnt?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:40 AM on January 28


I wonder how many Trump voters have been negatively impacted by these sweeping changes. Hopefully, the next election cycle has those voters better informed of the implications of right wing rhetoric.
posted by Phreesh at 10:41 AM on January 28 [5 favorites]


Does this include Section 8 housing vouchers? SNAP payments? College student loan disbursements? They keep saying "individuals" are not involved but nobody seems to be able to interpret against it.

Saturday is the first of the month. Spring tuition is due across college campuses. Maybe this will wake some people up, finally.
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:41 AM on January 28 [7 favorites]


AFAIK what we have now is a memo. It would be useful to know when and where and exactly what funding starts to dry up. Like how does this work? Are there federal disbursements of money from grants that happen at a regular interval, and on the next interval the money simply won't show up? surely someone here is intimate with this process.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 10:43 AM on January 28 [3 favorites]


"This is all illegal" vs. "If the president does it, it's legal" has a few possible outcomes, and the positive one feels...improbable.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:45 AM on January 28 [8 favorites]


Yeah, this isn't a "Trump is bad" thing, this a "Republicans realized the Presidency really is a Green Lantern ring first" moment.

There's nothing specific to Trump involved here and if Trump was suddenly no longer President it'd keep right on going exactly the same under Vance.

This is also a 50% of America is evil moment. Because the Trump voters are fine with this.

I work for a non-profit that relies on a lot of grants. I wonder how long I'll have a job.

JoeZydeco I guarantee this will not wake anyone up. There is no surely this moment. They'll blame trans people. Or immigrants. Or Jews. Or women. Or hippies. Or whatever.

"If those [insert scapegoat group here] hadn't made so much trouble I wouldn't have needed to vote for Trump!"

MisantropicPainforest I would assume that all agencies with a Trumper in charge will stop all spending immediately.
posted by sotonohito at 10:46 AM on January 28 [52 favorites]


As I posted in the open thread, fully half of my family was immediately unemployed as of this morning.

College student loan disbursements? They keep saying "individuals" are not involved but nobody seems to be able to interpret against it.

Several coworkers with kids in college have been informed by the schools that federal student loans will not be disbursed, and the schools do not yet know what that will mean for student status. Because why would anyone plan for this sort of contingency? Maybe they get kicked out! Maybe they have to scramble for alternate loans. Nobody knows. The ripples are unfathomable.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:47 AM on January 28 [26 favorites]


It would be useful to know when and where and exactly what funding starts to dry up. Like how does this work?

All the reporting so far is that no one has any fucking clue and it's all sort of best-guessing at the meaning of various aspects of the memo. See, for example.
posted by kensington314 at 10:47 AM on January 28 [8 favorites]


I'm rooting for a severe brain aneurysm, but I think maybe something with more prolonged suffering is justifiable.

I mean yes, but Trump is not in fact the person writing or issuing these, so . . . it's gonna take more than that.


What I want to know is who, and I know it must be multiple people, are the real authors of these “executive” orders. They are the ones responsible for all this, and we need to know who they are.

The idea that this is all a That One Guy problem is a comforting fiction that we really, really need to let go of.
posted by non canadian guy at 10:50 AM on January 28 [50 favorites]


How do they know this will work but the NIH doesnt?

I mean, sure, but also, really?
posted by Slothrup at 10:51 AM on January 28 [37 favorites]


The idea that this is all a That One Guy problem is a comforting fiction that we really, really need to let go of.

Counterpoint: JD Vance is a creepy uncharismatic weirdo who (allegedly) fucks couches. Half of MAGA hates the other half. It may not be a That One Guy problem, but there is a reason Republicans united under Trump and not DeSantis.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 10:54 AM on January 28 [41 favorites]


As well as the many analyses about Drown-it-in-a-bathtub/Project 2025/Imperial presidency/DEI-boogeyman-that-covers-this-kind-of-shit that people have written, this is very much in Trump's "run it like a business" wheelhouse.

On his whim over the last 5 decades, he has stiffed many clients and contractors over previously agreed-upon contracts and bills, with very little consequence to him other than protracted lawsuits which he mostly ran out the clock on. Many of said clients/contractors went bankrupt or gave up, or took pennies on the dollar.

What's the difference between this and 'bills/contracts' for the high-hundreds of billions for the largest economy in the world? It's his business now, and he hates many of his clients and contractors.
posted by lalochezia at 10:57 AM on January 28 [38 favorites]


Big important man puts the brakes on immediately so he can bigly and importantly sort out what's happening

My takeaway is a little different. To me, all of this stuff, the crazy decisions and executive actions coming one after the other at lightning speed, aren't about solving anything. They're 100% logical steps for somebody who's literally, actually trying to destroy not just the government but the entire country.

If the USA turns into a social system like India, Hungary, or North Korea--all different types of government for sure, but led by people Trump admires for their authoritarianism--we'll become a super-stratified society with a tiny fraction of super wealthy people, lording over a huge, very poor underclass, with virtually no middle class.

Under these systems, wages are driven down, making the (ever less-educated, less healthy, less skilled) population far more concerned with survival than politics. A gift to corporate interests, and much easier to govern than letting the pesky population have a say in politics and power. As people get more desperate, there's more unrest, including between citizens of different groups, but that's fine: any unrest or rebellion is justification for increasing repression and curtailing civil liberties.

So how do you get there, if this is your goal? Do your best to sow chaos, break the system, and turn people against each other. In this, this administration is batting 1.000.

TL;DR: Feature, not a bug.
posted by Rykey at 10:57 AM on January 28 [82 favorites]


Several coworkers with kids in college have been informed by the schools that federal student loans will not be disbursed, and the schools do not yet know what that will mean for student status.

I am told by a professor friend that may of her students were Trump voters. I guess they're learning an important lesson right now.
posted by JHarris at 10:58 AM on January 28 [18 favorites]


Text message from my sister in the US said that my mom--whose sole source of income is her Social Security--called her saying they were reducing her SS amount,

Good news, Kitteh. From the memo:

"Nothing in this memo should be construed to impact Medicare or Social Security benefits."
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 10:58 AM on January 28 [7 favorites]


^ Thanks! I will still have to untangle why they thought this, though. ^
posted by Kitteh at 11:00 AM on January 28 [5 favorites]


Hearing from a lawyer who works for a state Medicaid program that the White House has clarified this does not apply to Medicaid.

But If they wanted to send us into reeling shock. It's working.

Tomorrow: Discipline, calm, organize. But today even as we saw it coming I feel like I got punched.
posted by latkes at 11:01 AM on January 28 [8 favorites]


this is very much in Trump's "run it like a business" wheelhouse.

Notably, he's run his own business into the ground multiple times. So, much more like "run it like a poorly run family business."
posted by pwnguin at 11:03 AM on January 28 [20 favorites]


Which is why the whole "run government like a business" idea is just so ludicrous on its face.
posted by Rykey at 11:06 AM on January 28 [20 favorites]


My takeaway is a little different. To me, all of this stuff, the crazy decisions and executive actions coming one after the other at lightning speed, aren't about solving anything. They're 100% logical steps for somebody who's literally, actually trying to destroy not just the government but the entire country.

Yeah, this is a "shock and awe" event that is probably designed to cause mass civil unrest, which will provide a pretext for use of the insurrection act, after which everything is absolutely 100% game over.
posted by grumpybear69 at 11:09 AM on January 28 [25 favorites]


This morning in rapid succession, my wife's company let them know that they are not allowed to publish ANYTHING that has US department of education funding tied to it without explicit approval by the deputy assistant secretary. shortly after that they were informed that everyone should prepare for furlough/layoffs.

it's been quite a morning
posted by Dr. Twist at 11:11 AM on January 28 [16 favorites]


I have no coherent response to this awful news. Even as a temporary measure, the damage is astonishing. “Blast radius” is not a bad metaphor.
posted by cupcakeninja at 11:11 AM on January 28 [9 favorites]


Yeah, this is a "shock and awe" event that is probably designed to cause mass civil unrest,

Has a memo ever produced mass civil unrest in the US?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 11:11 AM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Counterpoint: JD Vance is a creepy uncharismatic weirdo who (allegedly) fucks couches. Half of MAGA hates the other half. It may not be a That One Guy problem, but there is a reason Republicans united under Trump and not DeSantis.

It doesn't matter. The Federalist Society, bankrolled by the House of Saud and the Koch Brothers, has seized power. It's their judiciary, the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, and the NYT and all the television networks will continue to carry their water because that's who is important in the worldview of the leadership of those organizations.

When all of this is said and done, and historians of some future civilization are poring over what exactly the fuck happened here, it will probably be considered to have been unavoidable. This is a thing that a very committed group of right wing ideologues with vast wealth have been building towards for quite some time. It is reasonable to hold a grudge against institutional Democrats for not understanding the radicalism of their opponents, but the reality is that in a knife edge 50/50 population, the Republicans were going to have power again sooner or later. Enough of the office-holding class of upcoming Republicans are radicals, and enough of the base have been radicalized, that this outcome was a matter of time, not specific individuals. Trump does this gleefully, but so would JD Vance, and Marco Rubio would do it dutifully, as would any other person they were able to install in that highest of offices.

For my part, I am hoping that we sooner rather than later have a secessionist Pacifica from CA to WA. MN can finally join Canada, as can New England. Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying it's a likely outcome - I'm just saying that it's probably the most optimistic case scenario.

Also, for all those who hated Alex Garland's Civil War, and criticized it for the implausibility of CA and TX joining forces, this kind of smash and grab governance is definitely the kind of thing that paves the way for bizarre possibilities such as that.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 11:15 AM on January 28 [30 favorites]


Has a memo ever produced mass civil unrest in the US?

Sure, now. You take away money from billions and....

The main difference is that Trump, above all others, has been granted immunity from everything for life now (more or less), whereas DeSantis or whoever else hasn't yet.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:17 AM on January 28 [3 favorites]


HUD funding is freezed for billing after 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. Peak cruelty.
posted by CPAnarchist at 11:29 AM on January 28 [6 favorites]


So several states will be bringing lawsuits, and we are hoping for injunctions, and at least reduced damage...depending on the circuit etc. But what if the Trump administration simply does not play along with whatever a court decides? What if they don't even show up to defend, and instead treat that entire system as illegitimate?

What is the actual recourse if the administration ignores the courts?
posted by atlatl at 11:30 AM on January 28 [18 favorites]


I know Trump isn't directly responsible for all of this, but it's going to be hard to convince the millions of MAGA people this will affect that The Federalist Society or JD Vance is going to save them. It's a cult of personality to most of them, not some grand strategy.
posted by hairless ape at 11:30 AM on January 28 [6 favorites]


I mean, this is even worse that the direct impacts: this is a full-blown constitution crisis in this administration's second week. Like there is zero doubt of this: this is the most direct challenge by the executive to Congress, probably in the nation's history. If this is allowed to stand, we really are in uncharted territory and Congress should probably just recess and go watch Netflix
posted by rhymedirective at 11:33 AM on January 28 [68 favorites]


So I work in research education for an NIH funded organization. Our grant was renewed for 7 years in 2023, but we certainly did not receive all 7 years of funding up front. From what I can surmise from others in my org, we usually get disbursements around July. We will get one this year? Who the fuck knows. Certainly nobody at my org.

I could try looking for another job but...if this shit keeps up is anybody even going to be hiring right now? Do I just start stuffing my paycheck into my mattress? I don't know what happens when the money we received last year runs out.
posted by DiscourseMarker at 11:36 AM on January 28 [17 favorites]


What is the actual recourse if the administration ignores the courts?

Impeachment and removal from office. If congress doesn't want to act at that point, there's no other legal recourse. We're just in constitutional crisis/coup/la-la-land.
posted by mrgoat at 11:38 AM on January 28 [17 favorites]


Has a memo ever produced mass civil unrest in the US?

What is your deal with insisting on dismissing this as "a memo"? People in this thread are reporting that the "memo" has already cost them jobs, funding, and schooling, how in the everloving donkeyfuck is it important that it is just "a memo"?
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 11:39 AM on January 28 [56 favorites]


All I can say is that as a federal employee, the last week has been...not great. I admittedly picked this career for slightly selfish reasons - it has paid decent and gives me good work/life balance - but I always liked the idea that I was doing something for the common good vs pumping up a stock price. I still cannot comprehend why that makes so many Americans want to induce pain and suffering on people like me. Not exactly making me feel patriotic, that's for sure.

My wife is private sector, but one of her biggest clients is contracting for a federal agency that literally only exists to give out foreign aid. So much for that.
posted by photo guy at 11:39 AM on January 28 [34 favorites]


From what I can surmise from others in my org, we usually get disbursements around July. We will get one this year? Who the fuck knows. Certainly nobody at my org.

Am in the same boat. No guidance yet, but this country is looking iffier by the day, with no sign that checks and balances will rein him in.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:42 AM on January 28 [10 favorites]


Does this include Section 8 housing vouchers? SNAP payments? College student loan disbursements? They keep saying "individuals" are not involved but nobody seems to be able to interpret against it.

Almost all federal loan and grant money is block grants to states or payments to institutions, like college loans and grants. The only thing I can think of that are actually payments to individuals are Obamacare premium subsidies (well, Social Security, but that was explicitly exempted), and those are technically refundable tax credits, so this memo might not apply to them, anyway.
posted by dirigibleman at 11:42 AM on January 28 [4 favorites]


Billing portals are showing messages that they are now outside regular business hours and billing requests can no longer be made. If this lasts more than a week, thousands will die.
posted by CPAnarchist at 11:43 AM on January 28 [12 favorites]


this is very much in Trump's "run it like a business" wheelhouse.

I know this isn't helpful to point out, but - this isn't even how businesses work. My own employer did some very ugly deep layoffs last year. They systematically, calmly, heartlessly, but efficiently contacted each person affected and said "you are laid off as of date X, sorry goodbye." There was no ambiguity or uncertainty or chaos. I mean, it was annoying/frustrating/challenging for the survivors who had to figure out how to do jobs without some of their colleagues. But nobody had any doubts about what was going on. Those of us left behind still knew how to do our jobs; we knew who was gone and which positions were vacant and what problems we now had to solve. And we knew we were going to keep getting paid. For for that matter those of us who were 'safe' were expressly told "we're done axing people, please proceed."

Running the country like a business might involve decisions I - or you - hate or disagree with. But businesses aren't typically this sloppy and crude. Large businesses do their best to dot i's and cross t's. They often make mistakes but "We're just gonna stop paying stuff and figure it out later" wouldn't fly in any business I've ever worked for.
posted by Tomorrowful at 11:43 AM on January 28 [41 favorites]


Impeachment and removal from office.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *cries*
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:43 AM on January 28 [27 favorites]


What is the actual recourse if the administration ignores the courts?

Impeachment and removal from office.


I think recent history has taught us that this is never going to happen.
posted by Rykey at 11:44 AM on January 28 [16 favorites]


So is anyone finally in the mood for a general strike?
posted by loquacious at 11:44 AM on January 28 [13 favorites]


I think that everyone is missing the scariest part of the memo:
"will of the American people as expressed through Presidential priorities"

Think that one through.
posted by conifer at 11:48 AM on January 28 [27 favorites]


There's a really good explainer on impoundments from Vox's Dylan Matthews here. The Supreme Court has been really clear on this, but it's going to take a long time to work that out.

Also worth noting that DOD has suspended new contracts. That suggests that much of this may be short-lived--even the parts of government the GOP likes are getting these pauses.

And if you care about this issue, it's time to learn Russell Vought's name. Here's a ProPublica piece on some of his more controversial ideas. He's been laying out a bunch of strategies that are fairly scary: invoking an invasion or insurrection to mobilize military resources domestically, suspend civil rights and other checks on executive power; traumatizing and demonizing government workers; and undermining Congress's budgetary power despite numerous SCOTUS decisions to the contrary.

And here's how his confirmation hearing went: he explicitly mentioned that he thinks that the Impoundment Control Act is unconstitutional. Lindsey Graham plans to hold his confirmation vote on Thursday.
posted by anotherpanacea at 11:49 AM on January 28 [28 favorites]


This is crazy fertile ground for malicious compliance.
posted by quillbreaker at 11:49 AM on January 28 [10 favorites]


Many of us won’t have anything to strike *from* if this holds. My employer, a large state university, relies on all sorts of fed money (from NIH grants to student loans, etc).

I’m not sure how long any such institution can remain solvent. I heavily expect some smaller research universities will not survive even a temporary halt.

I expected chaos, but I didn’t expect this particular chaos this quickly.
posted by nat at 11:49 AM on January 28 [19 favorites]


There isn't anything I can do other than start praying to a head of lettuce.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 11:49 AM on January 28 [4 favorites]


It's hard to believe that it's only been just over half a Scaramucci.
posted by vverse23 at 11:49 AM on January 28 [19 favorites]


Honestly, and I really hate that it's crossed my mind, I feel like a lot of Trump's actions have been calculated to get people out on the streets, because unlike the embarrassment he suffered with the George Floyd protests, there's probably nobody to stop him from issuing orders to shoot protestors now. As people who were in the room have said, he'd love to do that as president.
posted by Rykey at 11:51 AM on January 28 [29 favorites]


Time to impeach him I guess. That was quick.
posted by torokunai2 at 11:53 AM on January 28 [5 favorites]


We rely on grants as well, and my boss said that disbursements happen around the June/July time frame, so we're safe for now. One of my coworkers mentioned a rumor about a patient being denied treatment on a research protocol, so others in the institution may be more directly affected. Hopefully, we'll know more by the end of the week.
posted by Spike Glee at 11:53 AM on January 28 [3 favorites]


Billing portals are showing messages that they are now outside regular business hours and billing requests can no longer be made. If this lasts more than a week, thousands will die.
posted by CPAnarchist at 11:43 AM on January 28 [2 favorites +] [⚑]


What specific portals are you referring to CPAnarchist?
posted by latkes at 11:55 AM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Medicaid portals are down, for one.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:58 AM on January 28 [1 favorite]


I know this isn't helpful to point out, but - this isn't even how businesses work.

No, this is an operational strategy somewhat more like Day Bow Bow.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 12:00 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


They now claim that "all" meant "some", although it's not clear why they used the term "all" or to what the "some" applies.

It's also not clear if that's what they intended in the first place or if they are backpedalling.
posted by It's Never Lurgi at 12:04 PM on January 28


(Side note: this

but the reality is that in a knife edge 50/50 population, the Republicans were going to have power again sooner or later.

is inaccurate. About 31% of eligible voters actually voted for Trump/Republicans, and that has always been about where Trump’s actual approval rating has been. They’ve been so hell-bent on gerrymandering, voter suppression, and disinformation campaigns because that’s the only way they can reliably maintain power.)
posted by eviemath at 12:05 PM on January 28 [49 favorites]


Medicaid portals down in all 50 states after Trump funding freeze, Sen. Wyden says

"White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “I’ll check back on that and get back to you,” when asked if Medicaid payments were affected by the OMB order."

I doubt that will last long, though the chaos is harmful.

The long-term damage may come from the $2 trillion in Medicaid cuts that Congress is considering.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:06 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


What specific portals are you referring to CPAnarchist?


eLOCCS/HUD
posted by CPAnarchist at 12:07 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


njohnson23: "What I want to know is who, and I know it must be multiple people, are the real authors of these “executive” orders. They are the ones responsible for all this, and we need to know who they are."

Molly White: Trump’s Project 2025 ghostwriters: Exposed PDF metadata from the Office of Personnel Management reveals that Heritage Foundation-linked Trump devotees are writing policies at federal agencies.
The people who are now in charge of the Office of Personnel Management haven’t been scrubbing the metadata on their PDFs, and have exposed the original authors of the guidance they’re publishing. Two have links to the Heritage Foundation and its Project 2025.

Noah Peters is the author of the OPM Acting Director Charles Ezell’s January 27 memo (archive) providing guidance on the “Restoring Accountability To Policy-Influencing Positions Within the Federal Workforce” executive order, which is being described as the “Schedule F” order because it effectively reinstates that policy under a new name (“Schedule Policy/Career”). Schedule F, now Schedule Policy/Career, is an effort to enable Trump to purge civil servants and replace them with loyalists. Peters also authored the January 20 memo (archive) from Ezell, which exploits loopholes to bypass limits on political appointments. [...]

James Sherk was the true author of the joint Office of Management and Budget and OPM memo (archive) on return to office implementation plans. The guidance in the memo echoes a November 20, 2024 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy outlining their “Doge Plan”, where they wrote: “Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome”. [...] Sherk also authored the joint OMB and OPM memo (archive) providing guidance on the federal civilian hiring freeze — another effort towards the goal of slashing the size of the federal workforce.
posted by Rhaomi at 12:12 PM on January 28 [41 favorites]


As an employee of a college, this puts my and my coworkers' jobs at risk. Among our duties is supporting a number of Child Development & Family Services/HeadStart sites, and they are at far more risk than we are. This will put hundreds of people out of work just within my own sphere.
posted by The Great Big Mulp at 12:13 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


Midwest R1 checking in. Crickets from administration about this so far, t minus 110 minutes until the memo is supposed to take effect. PI and operations director both replied to my query saying they had no insight but would let us all know when they knew more. Campus emails I have received today included what must be the most comically timed Five Year Strategic Plan ever to be announced, and some advice on a mailing list for managers to “reclaim your life by focusing on what you can control and releasing what you can’t.”

I don’t actually know when money shows up for us, but based on our progress report timing I have a feeling we’re uncomfortably close to the next disbursement. Then again, if I were Chancellor, would I leave it to luck which programs, if any, remain solvent? I would not.
posted by eirias at 12:14 PM on January 28 [8 favorites]


CNBC is reporting possible good news (plus some bad) on the student financial aid front:

“The temporary pause does not impact Title I, IDEA, or other formula grants, nor does it apply to Federal Pell Grants and Direct Loans under Title IV [of the Higher Education Act],” Education Department spokesperson Madi Biedermann said in a statement.
...
The funding pause “only applies to discretionary grants at the Department of Education,” Biedermann said. “These will be reviewed by Department leadership for alignment with Trump Administration priorities.”
posted by JimInSYR at 12:14 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


Ughhh
posted by latkes at 12:14 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


I can tell you that when I worked for a school district that did budgeting like this - acting like every penny was personally coming out of the pocket of the superintendent - it is because said superintendent was stealing money from the budget.

So teachers had to buy paper for classrooms because it was rationed but he walked away with 800k in "unpaid sick time" when he "retired" but then still worked as a "consultant" drawing a second salary - and that's just the part that was public knowledge, a bunch of money seriously just went missing from the budget entirely.

Anyway, don't discount that the chaos is a cover for mass theft from the federal budget.
posted by subdee at 12:14 PM on January 28 [61 favorites]


I emailed both of my worthless traitor senators from their website portals this morning asking them to stand against this. They won't, I don't think, but it's worth a try? This move directly challenges Congress's power so they ought to be against it, if they weren't ideologue idiot wastes of hair.
posted by joannemerriam at 12:19 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


I just can't understand why Democrats are all mum about this. It's not hard to make memorable sound bites that help people see the damage. Look, here's one right off the dome: "Your niece's cancer cure could be thawing in an unplugged freezer thanks to this terrible decision." Maybe needs workshopping but you could crank out dozens more like it in a half-hour meeting. Get ChatGPT to do it. For god's sake say anything at all.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 12:19 PM on January 28 [44 favorites]


I'm as bleak as everyone else here (second order directly affected - we get funds from large global health funders who get funds from philanthropies AND the federal government, so who knows)

About the only thing to cheer me up today was a search of bluesky for 'Ice' and a ton of stories about regular people, local educators, unions, and freaking bus drivers resisting Ice.

The best was a bus driver in Seattle telling a bunch of American gestapo to "gargle my balls" when they demanded entry onto his bus. God that made me happy.
posted by WatTylerJr at 12:20 PM on January 28 [58 favorites]


Per the Reuters article,
advocacy groups representing non-profits and small businesses filed a similar case in Washington, D.C. federal court, arguing the freeze "will have a devastating impact on hundreds of thousands of grant recipients."

That lawsuit asked a court to halt the freeze, which was set to take effect at 5 p.m. ET (2200 GMT) on Tuesday.

The groups -- National Council of Nonprofits, the American Public Health Association, Main Street Alliance and SAGE -- said in the lawsuit (PDF) that OMB lacked authority to unilaterally terminate all federal financial assistance programs across the government.
If you have the wherewithal to support any of these folks, here are their donation pages:

American Public Health Association
Main Street Alliance
SAGE

(I don't see a donation page for National Council of Nonprofits; I suspect they're supported by membership dues.)

These nonprofits have asked for a temporary restraining order as well as a declaration that the memo is unlawful.

If you live in one of the 20 states who filed to stop this (or perhaps even if you don't), you can also contact your state attorney general's office to express your support and thanks.
posted by kristi at 12:20 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


The freeze has already been challenged in a lawsuit

Everything Trump does, including playing golf on the taxpayers' dime, should be challenged in a lawsuit.

Let he who lived by causing delays in the legal process [have his policies] die by causing delays in the legal process.
posted by Gelatin at 12:21 PM on January 28 [27 favorites]


I just can't understand why Democrats are all mum about this. It's not hard to make memorable sound bites that help people see the damage.

Pay more attention? I've seen at least 5 prominent democrats railing against this shit today already.
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:22 PM on January 28 [27 favorites]


Is this actually the Rubicon moment we've all been wondering about? Because I'm having a damn hard time seeing how we can carry on as a nation after this.
posted by sotonohito at 12:26 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


Pay more attention? I've seen at least 5 prominent democrats railing against this shit today already.

MORE
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 12:27 PM on January 28 [12 favorites]


How do they know this will work but the NIH doesnt?

Has a memo ever produced mass civil unrest in the US?

What exactly are your points with these questions?
posted by sundrop at 12:31 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


Well yes, more. But they are fighting back. Be wary of assuming your media sources are showing you no fight.
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:31 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


Tiny Frying Pan, all Ive seen is random postings about 'how dare he' instead they should be going 'fine you want a fight, we've got a fight' instead of kowtowing like the last 2 months about bipartisanship, and now asking for time to have a meeting.

State AGs are already powering up, the Blue State governors have fight plans in place. The national democratic leadership wants to know about UFOs(Schumer) and let's get to praying (Jeffies). FFS the Quakers are going harder than the dem leadership.

The Garland doctrine runs the national party. They chose a 74 year old life time centrist hack undergoing throat cancer radiation and chemo instead of AOC.

In conclusion they suck. Shut congress down, try to and lose, who cares. Cut off funding for Air Force One. Demand ICE deport the 'illegal immigrants' (ugh I hate that term) and anchor babies Melania, Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka and Barron (and oh yea, Musk). Anything!

But no[e, they'll see the Medicaid portal back up, declare victory and salute the power of bipartisanship and comity and then go home for billionaire junkets.

Sorry, not really aimed at you, but just SO tired of these sycophantic spineless cowards. And history does not remember quislings kindly.
posted by WatTylerJr at 12:32 PM on January 28 [31 favorites]


Tiny Frying Pan, all Ive seen is random postings about 'how dare he' instead they should be going 'fine you want a fight, we've got a fight' instead of kowtowing like the last 2 months about bipartisanship, and now asking for time to have a meeting.


Like I said, always a good time to check on your media diet because I haven't seen any shit like that today.
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:33 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


Curious if anyone has seen, um, whatever would count as "informed" writing on SCOTUS vis a vis this thing. Seems like allowing the broadest version of this would be opposed by a floor of four (this is not to say anything kind about Captain Balls 'n' Strikes) and Kavanaugh is the median vote on a lot of matters. Is there anything out in the world about how Kavanaugh views, uhhhh, I guess Article II of the Constitution?
posted by kensington314 at 12:35 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


Is this actually the Rubicon moment we've all been wondering about? Because I'm having a damn hard time seeing how we can carry on as a nation after this.

Yes. This is it. This is the coup. This is where all our plans/dreams/hopes etc have to change, because the things we wanted aren't going to happen and god knows what's going to happen instead. A lot of bankruptcies, homelessness, etc, for starters.

These are the people who have said publicly that people are going to have to suffer under their policies, and this is the suffering. These are people who literally want to attack and destroy universities, regardless of what it does to the economy or American medicine, development, etc. They want to smash everything and rule the ash heap, and they're too dumb to understand how dumb that is.

This is the product of forty or fifty years of every responsible politician in all parties taking the easier and more lucrative path, and it's not something that is going to be undone by our bought-out courts.

I'm trying to tell myself to sit tight for the next few weeks, since at the moment I have a job and housing. When things have shaken out a bit more, that's the time to reasses.
posted by Frowner at 12:37 PM on January 28 [61 favorites]


Thank you, Kristi, for the info on the non-profits.
posted by sundrop at 12:42 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


Tuny

Huhn? quick google search says otherwise : https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/democrats-playbook-trump-tune-noise-focus-economic-issues-rcna189180

But I guess thats not 'reliable'?

And I trust Pro Publica, Bellingcat, Rolling Stone, the Nation and freaking Teen Vogue more than the pathetic national news media. But YMMV.
posted by WatTylerJr at 12:45 PM on January 28 [8 favorites]


> ^ Thanks! I will still have to untangle why they thought this, though. ^

Are they on social media? I've seen friends on Facebook and Bluesky making unhelpfully vague claims about how bad things are. They're trying to help by reposting stories about ICE raids / schools closing / WIC ending /etc, although of course it makes this situation worse.

These are people who wouldn't usually fall for warnings about finding twist ties on car doors, but as a nation we're on edge and short on sleep.
posted by The corpse in the library at 12:50 PM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Is it still called civil war if the government attacks the people?
posted by tommasz at 12:51 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


What exactly are your points with these questions?

Because I think we need to talk about things that are *actual happening* and not simply asserting this memo is equivalent to assassinating Franz Ferdinand or ...in the time I started to write this out...a civil war.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:55 PM on January 28 [2 favorites]


Is it still called civil war if the government attacks the people?

No, that's fascism.

Re: Dem leadership.... There is a small handful of decent Dems on the national stage. Most of the rest of them are craven dipshits. Do not expect anything like fighting back from them. To the extent that they understand the nature of the fight, they would choose the wrong side. To those brave few who do get it, and choose to speak out, I say godspeed. Odds are very high that we will see arrests and/or unprosecuted assassinations against opposition politicians before this is done. It takes real guts to stand up in the face of that.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 12:58 PM on January 28 [12 favorites]




Yes, this is a time when (fingers crossed) it will be helpful to read the news articles covering this situation. Many of us are concerned, but many of the concerns I’ve seen in this thread were already answered in the news articles I’ve read. I assume they are also linked in TFAs.
posted by cupcakeninja at 12:59 PM on January 28 [4 favorites]


Yes, this is a time when (fingers crossed) it will be helpful to read the news articles covering this situation.

Maybe not? Some of the reporting I've seen (including well regarded sources) is contradicted by what on-the-ground civil servants or people who depend on medicare are saying they are currently experiencing. I've been rather focused on this since it directly impacts my job, and the main thing I'm taking away from reading the news, blogs from legal experts, Reddit, Twitter, etc. is that nobody really knows what is happening or how this will shake out.
posted by coffeecat at 1:10 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


I mean, if people haven't read the memo yet, they should - it's weird. I think people should be forgiven for not really understanding what is happening, or how to interpret the ramifications of this document.

I mean, even the press secretary couldn't answer a question of whether this will impact recipients of Medicare.

One of the best takes I've seen came from John Ganz on Twitter: the first trump administration was said to be "malevolence tempered by incompetence," so far this one is "malevolence sharpened by incompetence" Pretty much sums up where we are right now.
posted by coffeecat at 1:15 PM on January 28 [36 favorites]


I called the office of my (Democratic) representative and asked how they would fight back against the Republican administration and its traitorous allies. The staffer said that they were still reeling and trying to decide how to respond. I reminded them of the incident involving Senator Charles Sumner and Representative Preston Brooks on May 22, 1856, which established precedent for physical violence if appropriate.
posted by Faint of Butt at 1:18 PM on January 28 [18 favorites]


One little piece of the RTO fiasco: the US Patent & Trademark Office has been, for decades, at the forefront of remote work in the federal workforce, long enough that it's still called telework there, rather than remote. 99.81% of all positions at the USPTO are remote eligible [pdf], and of those 96.14% do, in fact, work remotely, about 13,000 employees in all. Most of them are fully remote, 5 days per week. That's 96% of the workforce, including 99.7% of the trademark staff. As I understand the statistics, literally an approximately single digit number of trademark office staff are full-time in-office. In just the past year the USPTO has given up its leases on ~5 buildings on its main campus in Alexandria, and a huge percentage of the remote employees don't live anywhere near a USPTO facility, so RTO in 30 days would be literally impossible. There is no O for them to R T.

As just another example of the stupidity of these people: the USPTO is funded entirely by fees! It doesn't take a fucking cent from taxpayers except in the very rare case of an extraordinary and unexpected budget shortfall. You know, like one that might be caused by having to suddenly set up a bunch of office space and pay for thousands of relocations.

Oh, and the USPTO just dropped ~800 job openings as part of the hiring freeze. Again, the office is funded by fees, so closing those job openings doesn't actually save anything.

And this is for part of the government that businesses mostly like (or at least grudgingly understand the need for)!
posted by jedicus at 1:19 PM on January 28 [42 favorites]




Reminder: "Medicare is federal health insurance for anyone age 65 and older, and some people under 65 with certain disabilities or conditions. Medicaid is a joint federal and state program that gives health coverage to some people with limited income and resources."

The current chaos is affecting Medicaid only.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:20 PM on January 28 [5 favorites]


coffeecat, I agree. The early news I read was weirdly abbreviated and circumspect, and I am seeing various boots-on-the-ground responses, as you are describing. I am also seeing wild, likely inaccurate claims lighting up social media from people who are justifiably terrified. So, I think all our mileages are varying right now.
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:24 PM on January 28 [2 favorites]


The current chaos is affecting Medicaid only.

Ugh, I could have sworn I typed Medicaid - that's what I meant. Thanks for noting though.
posted by coffeecat at 1:28 PM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Knowing how Mr. "Art of the Deal" operates, I'm also thinking that he's planning to use this chaos blitz to make outrageous demands as conditions to restore normalcy or funding or whatever. That's what he did to Newsom with the California wildfires, and it's what he did to Colombia for not cooperating about the immigrants. You want your constituents to stop suffering, Congress? Great, pass X insane legislation (or repeal Y sane legislation). You want the free lunches restored, Governors? Great, take X action against sanctuary cities in your state. The guy's in a World's Biggest Asshole Contest with himself, and he's giving it 110%.
posted by Rykey at 1:35 PM on January 28 [22 favorites]


Did you write that comment on November 5th?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 1:35 PM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Gelatin: Everything Trump does, including playing golf on the taxpayers' dime, should be challenged in a lawsuit.

Let he who lived by causing delays in the legal process [have his policies] die by causing delays in the legal process.


I totally agree with this. This memo - this presidency - is basically a Denial of Service attack. Trump doesn't care what sticks - if an order stands, he wins; if an order is struck down, he's used up some of his opponents' resources and gets to whine about it, so he also wins.

We (the states, companies, whoever the hell has standing) should do the same to him. The more points of origin, the better. DDoS his ass. For personal action... well, it would be interesting to see some guides from experts on things like how long one can delay filing their taxes before getting in real trouble, whatever else from the slowdown/malicious compliance playbook we can deploy.
posted by McBearclaw at 1:36 PM on January 28 [20 favorites]


I don't think impeachment is it. The memo really does sound like it was written by someone demented. I say 25th amendment.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 1:38 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


The staffer said that they were still reeling and trying to decide how to respond

Wow. The fact that they're admitting that over the phone.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:40 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


Mod note: Reminder that derailing this thread with comments unrelated to the content of the thread are discouraged. Please do not do it again or future comments will be deleted.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 1:45 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


Skip if you consider this dooming, but my concern is that this goes:
1) president and Heritage Foundation goblins assert wildly unconstitutional powers
2) Supreme Court says no
3) goblins installed in federal agencies just keep doing it on the ground
4) the recourse is for Congress to impeach, which they won't.

The two other branches of government killed with one stone.
posted by away for regrooving at 1:56 PM on January 28 [16 favorites]


In what world is this Supreme Court saying no? That branch has been dead for years.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 1:58 PM on January 28 [5 favorites]


Are they on social media? I've seen friends on Facebook and Bluesky making unhelpfully vague claims about how bad things are. They're trying to help by reposting stories about ICE raids / schools closing / WIC ending /etc, although of course it makes this situation worse.

I have one of the few Boomer parents in North America who does not have any sort of social media presence. What I do have is a Boomer parent with the news on 24/7, so whatever is being said is being filtered through a confused Alzheimer's brain. My sister is just as baffled once she figured out Mom's Social Security cheque panic had no basis in reality. She asked if anyone had called her or contacted her about this. Mom said no, so who knows the hell is happening. She is a Democrat so she's probably keeping it on CNN or MSNBC, I guess.

/end of derail, and sorry!
posted by Kitteh at 2:04 PM on January 28 [3 favorites]


1) president and Heritage Foundation goblins assert wildly unconstitutional powers
2) Supreme Court says no


The SC has already declared that this POTUS has immunity, so all of the cries of "what he did is illegal" are moot, and I fear the same is the case for your hypothetical. The court has thrown out precedent, and continues to legislate from the bench, they're the problem, not a solution.
posted by OHenryPacey at 2:05 PM on January 28 [12 favorites]


That's immunity from being criminally charged though, isn't it? A court could still see as the memo acting outside Presidential authority and strike it down as being unconstitutional?
posted by mazola at 2:11 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


...and then Trump gets on TV and says "Nobody loves the Constitution more than me, these so-called judges are so unfair," and that's the last we'll hear about it.
posted by Rykey at 2:15 PM on January 28 [4 favorites]


They could strike it down, yes. In fact, they could declare the president's actions as illegal -- their ruling basically left it up to the court itself whether or not the president is acting officially as president, and thus liable for prosecution. They could do whatever they want. But we have no reason to trust that the SC would strike it down.
posted by The Great Big Mulp at 2:16 PM on January 28 [5 favorites]


IUTBAL* for 26 years, so please let me gently extend a hand and walk you back off the ledge. What mazola says is essentially correct. SCOTUS held that POTUS has personal immunity from criminal charges based on official acts taken as POTUS. Terrible as that decision was, it did not make Trump a king. Decisions taken by POTUS remain subject to judicial review for constitutionality.

*I Used To Be A Lawyer before I retired at the end of 2023
posted by JimInSYR at 2:17 PM on January 28 [19 favorites]


Mod note: On second thought, the comment derails about the election and blaming certain groups for the result has been removed. That is not the subject of this thread, so let’s move on from that.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 2:20 PM on January 28 [12 favorites]


Punching in here from higher ed. My wife works in a federally-funded program, Student Support Services,. That's under the TRIO umbrella, which also includes Educational Talent Search (which I worked for 20+ years ago), Upward Bound, and a few other programs that primarily, but not exclusively, serve income-eligible, first-generation students.

TRIO is under the aegis of the Council for Opportunity in Education (COE). This morning, they issued this statement:
Dear Colleagues:

As COE shared last night, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has ordered a pause to the disbursement and obligation of federal funds, to go into effect at TODAY at 5:00 p.m. ET. This means that the G6 system for drawdowns will not be available after 5:00 p.m. ET tonight.

Given the immediacy of this action, COE advises TRIO grantees to take the actions below.

First, if a lack of funds would cause your institution to limit TRIO services, investigate with your business office the possibility of drawing down funds this afternoon in order to prevent this lag. As agencies are directed to provide a report to OMB by Monday, February 10 indicating whether federal grant programs are in compliance with recently issued Executive Orders, grantees may wish to draw down funds to allow for operations at least through that date.

Second, and just as important, TRIO grantees MUST contact their House Representative and both U.S. Senators to let them know how this action is affecting your students and families. (For ease in contacting your legislators, use this tool on the COE website. Be sure to "Edit Message" before sending so you can directly address the concern at hand. A sample message is available here.)

Finally, we invite you to join COE's Board of Directors for a special Government Relations Committee Meeting on Friday, January 31 at 1:00 p.m. ET. Please click here to register for this meeting.

As always, thank you for your ardent support of TRIO programs and students.
TRIO programs serve almost 900,000 students through more than 1,000 colleges and agencies. It's a game-changer for kids and their families. TRIO people are united in a way that's hard to explain, but once a TRIO person, always a TRIO person. This is breaking my heart, for reasons that go beyond the threat to my wife's job and half my family's income.

I worked in ETS through the smug menace of the "Contract with America" agenda and mindset. This is much, much worse.
posted by Caxton1476 at 2:21 PM on January 28 [36 favorites]


Great. Does this mean I don't get to go to dialysis next Monday? Or on some future Monday?

I really wish we could tell the MAGA crowd "He's your busted-ass President, you fix him" but they won't. They actually WANTED this, FFS.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 2:26 PM on January 28 [12 favorites]


I'm not here to predict the Supreme Court's behavior, folks like Vladeck can do that. My point is even if the court says no... then what?
posted by away for regrooving at 2:27 PM on January 28 [8 favorites]


Decisions taken by POTUS remain subject to judicial review for constitutionality.

Glad you're here, JimInSYR. So let's say judicial review for constitutionality does occur, and Trump activity X is found to be unconstitutional. Trump says thanks for the update, now go pound sand. What happens next? What are the enforcement / punishment mechanisms available?
posted by Rykey at 2:27 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


Impeachment
posted by JimInSYR at 2:29 PM on January 28 [4 favorites]




Looks like this OMB order is temporarily blocked, so perhaps we’ll find out?
posted by eirias at 2:30 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


One of the many things this affects is nonprofits funded by the Office on Violence Against Women and I am so fucking pissed at all the TERFs who voted for him to “protect women.”

There’s a coalition of nonprofit executive directors across the country meeting to support each other and pursue legal action. I’m seeing an unprecedented level of collaboration between organizations right now, where previously a lot of nonprofits operated in siloes. County officials have also stepped up as advocates.

I don’t know if it will be enough, but there are a lot of people who are still fighting. Support us if you can.
posted by brook horse at 2:31 PM on January 28 [33 favorites]


JimInSYR, it seems self evident that impeachment isn’t going to be an answer here, in the worst case. If it can’t succeed in the event of an actual armed coup attempt, I don’t envision it succeeding over grant funding.
posted by eirias at 2:31 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


I was asked a question and I answered it, accurately. Describing a thing is not defending it.
posted by JimInSYR at 2:33 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


One of the many things this affects is nonprofits funded by the Office of Violence Against Women and I am so fucking pissed at all the TERFs who voted for him to “protect women.”


Also for a group of people so very very VERY very concerned about child sexual abuse, they sure were quick to fuck up the federally-funded organizations that are dedicated to actually preventing and identifying that abuse.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 2:36 PM on January 28 [22 favorites]




I think coffeecat and I work at the same university. What's wild was the OVCR held an open house meeting yesterday where our Federal liaison said to our faces, in relation to the DEIA EO that has already gotten research projects put on stop orders, "This kind of thing always happens with new administrations. We'll get through it." Clearly the need for an open house is a sign this isn't normal...
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 2:43 PM on January 28 [13 favorites]


Hah, it appears that we do (briefly skimmed your comment history). What's funny is in a meeting yesterday (I work in grants), someone said that exact line "This kind of thing always happens with new administrations. It happened in 2020..." Now I know where they got that line from...
posted by coffeecat at 2:53 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


TheKaijuCommuter, I'd bet dollars to donuts its cause they voted for him. My eminently kind, thoughtful CFO (were involved in developing meds for Low income countries) who works here cause he loves what we do, voted for him and I'm truly shocked. So many people I thought were good and kind wanted this. Now the ones who claim to be good people are hiding behind the 'oh we're concerned by some of this, but we've got to give it time', bullshit. They wanted this. I guess they didnt want their moms thrown out of nursing homes but they definitely wanted the poor kids to not have lunch and gay veterans to kill themselves.

And yup, there it is the Trumpists just banned gender affirming care (via EO) for anyone under 19 and any medical schools, clinics etc performing such care will lose their federal funding (perhaps those already have been frozen).

At least the Germans were into the midst of the worst Depression imaginable.....
posted by WatTylerJr at 2:57 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


At least the Germans were into the midst of the worst Depression imaginable.....

Give us time! /s
posted by eirias at 3:01 PM on January 28 [24 favorites]


As your co-workers would say, give it time...
posted by Rykey at 3:01 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


I am told by a professor friend that may of her students were Trump voters. I guess they're learning an important lesson right now.

Between the Junior MAGAs and the Left-accelerationists, I’m starting to get the impression that the kids are not, in fact, alright.
posted by non canadian guy at 3:03 PM on January 28 [14 favorites]




That last bit is Elon again, isn't it? Especially with a "resign" email?
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:06 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


I can't wait to see how this chaos impacts discussion of the debt ceiling.
posted by effluvia at 3:10 PM on January 28


Worth mentioning that as far as I can tell, buyouts are capped at $25k by statute.
posted by anotherpanacea at 3:23 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


Dissolution of the monasteries
posted by Small Dollar at 3:24 PM on January 28 [8 favorites]


#1. This is already creating mayhem in our local parks department - just to name one organization I happen to have a slightly inside track on, and certainly one of roughly one billion others having similar problems.

#2. This is your tax dollars at work, and in the next couple of weeks we're going to see exactly what they are in fact good for. Quick summary would be, pretty much everything in the U.S. economy and then a bunch of the world economy as well.

This is $4 trillion of your and my tax dollars that we have collectively given to the federal government to do those jobs. And now one person has decided to put his foot in front of the stream and completely block it. Because.

#3. You can guarantee that this is just one relatively small portion of the Trump administration's goal of figuring out exactly how far they can push the limits. Once they have found how far, they will just keep pushing them there, or perhaps a little further, continually.

This is a travesty because, among all the other reasons, all those programs and all that money is being spent in accordance with an entire complex and lengthy process for determining the public will in America.

Now Trump has set himself up as the one single person who can just stop all that, and countermand it, singlehandedly.

There is a word for that, and it starts with d and ends with ictator.

The one person who single-handedly decides.

That is not how American government has ever worked, it is not how the founders envisioned it working, it is not how the voters envision it working.

Depend on Trump and his cronies to now grab exactly as much of that power was we allow them.
posted by flug at 3:28 PM on January 28 [42 favorites]


Trump administration will offer all 2 million federal workers a buyout to resign

The offer is set to go out to the federal workforce through a new system the Trump administration set up that gives officials the ability to email all federal employees at once.

In the email will be a draft resignation letter for them to review. If a person wishes to resign, they will be able to reply with the word "resign."

The resignation period will begin Tuesday and go through Feb. 6.


Oh I bet it won't be hard for malicious bosses or IT to respond "resign" for many. But besides that, it's just so basic. Of course, all fed employees are the same, one email to all makes sense this shit is easy let's golf.
posted by tiny frying pan at 3:31 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


Trump administration will offer all 2 million federal workers a buyout to resign

Said offer will apparently go out through a new email system that is already the subject of a lawsuit over security concerns.

That last bit is Elon again, isn't it? Especially with a "resign" email?

And yup it's Elon, as the person collecting the responses to the new email system is the OPM chief of staff, who used to work at xAI, Musk's AI startup.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:34 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


Worth mentioning that as far as I can tell, buyouts are capped at $25k by statute.

Even worse, that (and the statute that backs it up) says it's the lesser of 25k or whatever your severance would be under normal circumstances, which is -- of course -- an amount also defined by statute (as one week's pay for each year of employment, plus an adjustment if you're over 40).

(I'd guess this also means that anyone taking them up on this offer who's been working for the federal government less than a year might discover, after resigning, that they won't be eligible for any buyout payment at all, since they're not eligible for any amount of regular severance.)
posted by nobody at 3:49 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


Worth mentioning that as far as I can tell, buyouts are capped at $25k by statute.
Full retirement with full benefits or GTFO.
posted by The Ardship of Cambry at 4:01 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


What is the actual recourse if the administration ignores the courts?

Impeachment and removal from office. If congress doesn't want to act at that point, there's no other legal recourse. We're just in constitutional crisis/coup/la-la-land.

The courts have all sorts of potential recourse. They could appoint court officers to oversee disbursement of funds from federal agencies. They could charge agency personnel (potentially including agency heads) with contempt of court. They could even put them in jail.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:05 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


If Trump gets the 25th, it would also be fitting that his benefactor gets his properties nationalized.
posted by effluvia at 4:12 PM on January 28 [2 favorites]


What's the justification of invoking the 25th amendment?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:16 PM on January 28


Wow. The fact that they're admitting that over the phone.

The majority of Democrats may have well had this fucking stamped on their foreheads since Trump became a serious contender.
posted by reedbird_hill at 4:23 PM on January 28 [6 favorites]


Trump administration will offer all 2 million federal workers a buyout to resign

It's not a buyout - that's just a lie. It's just a resignation with an 8 month notice period. Here's the email.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:29 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


It's not a buyout - that's just a lie. It's just a resignation with an 8 month period. Here's the email.

But they “retain pay and benefits regardless of daily workload.” Perhaps that’s a lie too—but there are people for whom 8 months of paid vacation will be appealing.
posted by anotherpanacea at 4:32 PM on January 28


As I recall, Elon made all sorts of generous noises when getting Twitter staff to "take buyouts," too, and then he stiffed them until the courts made him pay out.

Anyone who takes this buyout should expect the same, only the courts will be so backlogged with other lawsuits against the administration that their cases will never get heard.

Regardless, after the first Federal Judge gets arrested in the middle of the night by a bunch of Oath Keepers, all the court cases will suddenly be decided in a very biased fashion.

Here's my rule going forward: If your plan, or hopes, or whatever, depend on things functioning the way they have for the rest of your life up until now, you should at least have a plan B.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 4:38 PM on January 28 [39 favorites]




According to a link I perused on Reddit, legally maximum severance payments for voluntary severance for federal employees is 25k.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:42 PM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Pay more attention? I've seen at least 5 prominent democrats railing against this shit today already.

MORE


Maxwell Frost
, 28-year-old U.S. Representative from Florida:

"This blatantly illegal move by the Trump Administration should have severe consequences. None of his remaining cabinet picks should receive a single Democratic vote until all is remedied and we can ensure this won’t happen again. Congress holds the power of spending, not him."

and "Flood the zone. Electeds, activists, & leaders, don’t assume people know what’s going on. Tell them everywhere that: Trump & Republicans stopped Medicaid. Trump & Republicans stopped housing assistance. Trump & Republicans stopped schooling for children."
posted by JDC8 at 4:46 PM on January 28 [32 favorites]


Fork in the Road letter on the OPM website.

Reading it carefully: this is not offering 8 months pay for no work; it's offering 8 months of continuing to work remotely. "I understand I will be exempt from any “Return to Office” requirements."

Also, "suitability" here is awfully weaselly:
Enhanced standards of conduct: The federal workforce should be comprised of employees who are reliable, loyal, trustworthy, and who strive for excellence in their daily work. Employees will be subject to enhanced standards of suitability and conduct as we move forward. Employees who engage in unlawful behavior or other misconduct will be prioritized for appropriate investigation and discipline, including termination.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 4:47 PM on January 28 [8 favorites]


This sounds like "you're going to get fired one way or another, but theoretically we might give you a tiny bit of money if you agree to leave voluntarily right this second."

At this time, we cannot give you full assurance regarding the certainty of your position or agency but should your position be eliminated you will be treated with dignity and will be afforded the protections in place for such positions.

Like none and none? Because you are eliminating them all? This is Twitter running the government.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:29 PM on January 28 [13 favorites]


Campus finally heard from my Chancellor, who was not first, but was at least credible. We keep on keeping on, for now.
posted by eirias at 5:39 PM on January 28 [2 favorites]


The juche isn't worth the squeeze.
posted by neonamber at 5:48 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


Wait, I know this script - the military will always get paid. The officers who didn’t deep throat Trump will fall down military stairs or off military balconies and then we’re officially a banana republic. California will fall down some geographical stairs and … Melania will sing Don’t Cry For Me, Mara Lago and ….

Well, it was a funny idea right up to the hyphen.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 5:51 PM on January 28 [5 favorites]


That “buyout offer” is likely not legal at all. If anyone is considering taking it, they should have a consult with an employment lawyer.
posted by azpenguin at 5:57 PM on January 28 [13 favorites]


++1 freaking THE FUCK OUT
posted by Dashy at 6:25 PM on January 28 [12 favorites]


These acts are doing nothing to change my growing suspicion that Herr Trumpski truly is a bonafide Russian puppet and we are now no more than a client state.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 6:26 PM on January 28 [16 favorites]


This is also a 50% of America is evil moment. Because the Trump voters are fine with this.
[W]hy that makes so many Americans want to induce pain and suffering on people like me.
You are being manipulated when you think this way. It's hard for me to remember, too, but please don’t give in to it. Hate is damaging to you, and to the community at large. It takes energy, it wastes time — and it's just one big fat misdirection furthering the goals not of the Republican electorate, but of the political leadership and its lackeys telling them lies. The far right here and abroad, Machiavellian types all, know that. Stay focused.

Paul Manafort
was Trump’s campaign manager in 2016. In 2018, he was convicted on charges of tax fraud, bank fraud and failing to disclose foreign bank accounts. Nonetheless, he continued indirectly advising Trump until 2020, which is also when Trump pardoned him. More recently, he’s been spotted at Mar-a-Lago since the election, and only stepped down from a post relating to the 2024 Republican National Convention when the Washington Post published a story disclosing his plans.

What makes Manafort important to us now is not just his role in the first Trump campaign (and those of his college buddy/business partner Roger Stone, and like-minded others), but his real-world experience first at the 1980 Reagan campaign where he learned to “dogwhistle,” and at a far larger scale on the foreign stage where he gained a reputation for getting oligarch/gangster types of ill repute in large countries elected by dividing, and conquering, the electorate.

In 2004, Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovych was facing allegations that he had tried to rig that year's presidential election with fraud and intimidation, and possibly by poisoning his opponent with dioxin. Failed by Moscow's consultants, he went Russian sympathizer instead, and Manafort hit pay dirt with a long-game candidacy that finally got Yanukovych elected president in 2010. Four years later, Yanukovych’s authoritarian pro-Russian government collapsed amid charges of treason and the outbreak of the Maiden Revolution. Yanukovych fled to Russia, Manafort obsconded with oodles of hard-currency hryvnya, had a breakdown, and then offered Trump, an American oligarch if ever there was one, his services for free just in time for the 2016 campaign.

Manafort’s success with both Yanukovych and Trump was built on the same poll-driven template. Think Fox News. In Ukraine, Manafort focused on the least educated and the most resentful, which meant native Russian speakers. It was not incidental that Russian was made an official Ukrainian language in 2006. After another eight years spent of politically manipulated identity divisions and resentments between East (Russia=red) and West (EU/NATO=blue), the stage for Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 was nicely set.
posted by Violet Blue at 6:44 PM on January 28 [23 favorites]


These acts are doing nothing to change my growing suspicion that Herr Trumpski truly is a bonafide Russian puppet and we are now no more than a client state.

Yes there is no other reason the homegrown modern conservative movement, which for the past 70+ years has railed against the existence of the federal government, would suspend federal funding for all things, except for Putin.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:46 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


At this point, I am convinced that hardcore Trump supporters and many Republicans are effectively unreachable except by deprogramming methods that work on cult members, and I'm not sure how reliable or well-understood those methods are, nor whether they can be used at scale. There will be no "surely this" moment, because cult members whose beliefs are demonstrated to have been false don't question or abandon the cult. They recommit harder than before. So it doesn't matter how much direct and personal pain Republican voters feel as a demonstrable result of Trump and Republican policies. They will only go deeper into MAGA as a response.

To the extent I retain optimism, it is for the voters who made a shallow and uninformed choice and can theoretically become better informed, including through painful personal experience.

This is a tough time to be a person.
posted by prefpara at 6:55 PM on January 28 [20 favorites]


>railed against the existence of the federal government

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DfOW

^ real (2025 dollars) government spending per age 25 - 54 yo. I don't want to minimize the crisis we're in, but had Harris won we'd be in a similar GOP-created bind this year but being from Congress instead.

The September date in Musk's letter to $organization correlates to the Oct 1 start of the Federal fiscal year; there's going to be a broad axe taken .gov this year, and it's not going to be pretty.
posted by torokunai2 at 7:11 PM on January 28 [2 favorites]


the recourse is for Congress to impeach, which they won't.

There s preemptive obedience, and then preemptive despair, I suppose.

Never to early to start writing the articles of impeachment. Flood the zone and all.

Fight for your country.
posted by eustatic at 7:29 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


Welp, just got my first Stop Work Order from a Federal agency based on the DEIA EO. Thankfully I just won a couple non-Federal projects, but I'm still not feeling too good about long-term prospects in academia. I know there are a lot of folks likely getting hit harder than I am, to say nothing of all the other folks who could be impacted by the January 27th EO.
posted by TheKaijuCommuter at 7:39 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


The goal is to turn the continent into a giant prison yard, with registered militias and unregistered gangs running things.
posted by brachiopod at 7:48 PM on January 28 [5 favorites]


So Trump is trying to forcibly dismiss government workers, and he has defunded all government activities. He also just installed a puppet at defense and is trying to install "Russia’s girlfriend" in intelligence. All the major factions are already in bed with authoritarianism: MAGA, Opus Dei, the tech oligarchs.

Am I crazy to say this feels like a trial run for a coup?
posted by Violet Blue at 8:04 PM on January 28 [14 favorites]


As some have pointed out, these Executive Orders and memos of doom are intended to start mass protests and uprisings that will give Trump the thinly veiled excuse he needs to declare martial law and start ordering people arrested and shot.

At this point, the only thing that might work to keep this from happening, is if a significant portion of everyone who can stays home from work in a general strike and refuses to pay any federal taxes. What would those people need to be doing if not going to work? Helping to support their family, friends, and communities through this difficult time. Organizing and surviving. Doing it as quietly and as peacefully as we possibly can.

It will never happen of course. I wish so hard that it could. I'd do it in a heartbeat. But most American's (in my opinion) are tired, burnt out, and terrified. Of being unemployed which we've been told is the absolute worst thing that could happen to you short of jail time.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 8:09 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DfQZ

^ blue is federal spending, red is receipts, log scale. (the gap we're in now is ~$4T.)

The 1990s featured some mild Democrat-authored changes, adding more brackets above the top 28% bracket, up to 39.6% in the 1993 bill.

The country's response of course was to throw the Dems out in 1994, but the tax regime remained and we got a significant "peace dividend" (BRAC etc) that certainly became a headwind to the economy leading into the 2001 recession (alleviated, shall we say, by the response to 9/11).

The Bush crew of course blew everything up with tax cuts and spending increases, but was able to pay for it more or less thanks to a $6T ($6,000B) boost to consumer debt, ye olde Housing Bubble that precipitated the GFC.

2010 - 2020, yeah, that happened. Last year I had been hoping someone could bonk me in the head so I'd wake up around now, but now I need another bonk to wake up in ~5 years.

Basically we need to raise the marginal rate on everyone +10% to being the budget in balance like we did in the 1990s, say +1% per year for 10 years. Being a nation of children, we won't do that, so instead we get what we have now.
posted by torokunai2 at 8:24 PM on January 28 [5 favorites]


Can we just raise the rate on anything over 800K a year to 90% instead?
posted by sharp pointy objects at 8:29 PM on January 28 [18 favorites]


Yes, this situation seems to fit the criteria for what's known as a self-coup, auto-coup or executive coup: The Return of the Presidential Putsch.
posted by Violet Blue at 8:33 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


What I keep coming back to, in my mind, is that America in 2025 just seems too big to coup. We are a large and unwieldly nation. If social services fall apart, I don't think you'll get the establishment of martial law, because it's just not workable, number one, the manpower to enforce martial law on that scale doesn't exist; and number two, in the absence of a functional state, the only thing that holds a military together is espirt de corps, which...well, I wouldn't want to rely on that, if it were me. It's possible that a truly narcissistic leader can't imagine a world where his sycophants could turn on him, and buddy, that's what they all think. They can and they would; inside every sycophant is an angry Renfield who deep down knows he'll never be a Dracula. That shit would not happen the way you imagine.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:46 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


"there's one for you and nine for me" doesn't have quite the same ring to it but chatgpt says a 90% marginal bracket on all income over $800K would bring in +$500B/yr before Laffer Curve effects.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DfSQ

blue is federal spending / personal income (wages + capital gains + social benefits), i.e. what the average tax rate should be for a neutral tax regime.

red is the actual tax rate (federal receipts / personal income + corporate profits)
posted by torokunai2 at 8:47 PM on January 28 [1 favorite]


This is all exhausting. Thank you for the thread OP and thank you to the commenters. That’s all I got for now.
posted by Bella Donna at 8:52 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


Like civil wars, coups have the key characteristic of violence, the threat of violence, or the use of force. This is a partially realized attempt to drastically reduce federal funding.

This is not a coup. This is not a civil war. These terms have meaning.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:54 PM on January 28 [6 favorites]


Well, to be fair, it seems like a drastic attempt to kill a lot of people who rely on social services, deliberately or as collateral damage. The money isn't really the problem.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:02 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


The real fiscal problem here is out of control corporate profits:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DfTg

blue is corporate profits, red is federal corporate tax receipts (both 2025 dollars), green is the effective tax rate (right axis). With $4T in corporate profits we should be seeing $1T in taxation, not $500B. funny how the corporate media never runs this chart

'course if they re-upped this taxation to ~25% then P/Es would double and the stock market would crash 50% down to 2019 levels, and nobody wants that I guess.
posted by torokunai2 at 9:02 PM on January 28 [10 favorites]


>The money isn't really the problem.

I'm not sure if they understand or not that every dollar of social spending instantly reenters the private economy.
posted by torokunai2 at 9:03 PM on January 28 [11 favorites]


From the article cited above:
Executive coups fall within the broader democratic backsliding or “autocratization” scholarly concepts, but have so far largely escaped careful analysis. After a brief lull, presidential coups are now back. Scholars differ on the specifics of how to define and count these coups, yet it is clear that a wide variety of countries have suffered from them as of late.

There have been nine executive coups over the past decade, according to the Cline Center at the University of Illinois. They define self-coups, or auto-coups, as “coups where the existing chief executive takes extreme measures to eliminate, or render powerless, other components of the government (legislature, judiciary, etc.).” Critically, these efforts must be irregular (extra-legal) and short-term. They also include situations “where the chief executive simply assumes extraordinary powers.”
posted by Violet Blue at 9:06 PM on January 28 [16 favorites]


Elon's insertion of "loyal" in his missive to the Federal workforce is particularly chilling.

Xinhua (Chinese State Media) publishes this handy tome

与领导干部谈政治忠诚
  • 与 (yǔ) – with
  • 领导 (lǐngdǎo) –leader
  • 干部 (gànbù) – cadre
  • 谈 (tán) – discuss
  • 政治 (zhèngzhì) – political
  • 忠诚 (zhōngchéng) – loyalty
posted by torokunai2 at 9:17 PM on January 28


Future historians will marvel at the power of prescriptive grammarians to ignore facts on the ground. The actions we're talking about specifically abrogate several powers of Congress, an executive power grab unlike any seen in my lifetime. Among the hallmarks of an executive coup is the implicit threat of violence because the coup artist already HAS the power of state violence at hand. This is before one incorporates into one's world view the extremely well known fact that the current president has openly and repeatedly fantasized about ordering protesters to be shot. The mental gymnastics required to not call this an executive/self/auto-coup are staggering.
posted by range at 9:19 PM on January 28 [35 favorites]


The Brooks Brothers Rioters did their thing and walked away, one of them all the way to his seat on the Supreme Court.
posted by torokunai2 at 9:21 PM on January 28 [9 favorites]


To recap: Trump has just installed a puppet at Defense and is trying to install another puppet in Intelligence. His new AG is an election-denier, and he just released the leadership of the Oathkeepers and the Proudboys. Moreover, "The Department of Homeland Security has repeatedly underscored the rising threat of political violence, identifying far-right extremists as the most significant domestic threat to American security.

So ... I've been weighing whether the military would stay true to their constitutional oaths, whether the police would support Trump now that he's released 01/06 copkillers, and just how influential the various militias are. Apparently, there are currently estimated to be 169 active groups.

I have some trouble imagining the military turning. I am underwhelmed by police adherence to a code of ethics, but it's hard to imagine what that would mean at scale. And kittensforbreakfast makes a (reassuringly) great point about the immense challenge of a country as enormous as the U.S.
posted by Violet Blue at 9:24 PM on January 28 [7 favorites]


from the vox piece on impoundment: "The power becomes truly interesting, however, if Trump insists upon cuts that Congress will not approve. One could imagine a repeat of the 2017 fight to repeal Obamacare, except, when enough Republicans defect to doom the effort in Congress, Trump and Vought opt to simply impound funds for the Medicaid expansion and Affordable Care Act premium subsidies unilaterally. This would inevitably provoke a legal challenge that could make its way to the Supreme Court."

fwiw...
Budget overhaul could cut deep in Trump country - "Consider the Affordable Care Act, the healthcare expansion that was the signature accomplishment of Democratic President Barack Obama. Republicans vowed to roll back 'Obamacare' when Trump was first elected in 2016, but they failed to do so. The program has dramatically grown since then. More than 3 million people have indicated they plan to participate in Obamacare in 2025. Most of those people live in states won by Trump in November."
posted by kliuless at 9:41 PM on January 28 [4 favorites]


Don't forget that the trump admin also recently eliminated funding for "election security" from the Department of Homeland Security's budget... I remember when that department was founded under Bush, how much of a joke and way to funnel money to cronies it was (a single department could have one worker and 9 bosses drawing 100k salaries while never showing up at the office, and not in a telework kind of way). Since then it's become an actual department doing actual work and counterweight to the ICE gestapo but not for long, it seems.

Also, I just got an email about the SAVES act - which would require documentation *every* time every person re-registers to vote, including after a move or if you change your name after marriage. Unlike Trump's poorly written executive orders, if Congress approve this it will actually become law. So the totally public, in the open attempts to screw the next election are proceeding apace with the secretive, violent and illegal ones.
posted by subdee at 9:42 PM on January 28 [8 favorites]


Patty Murray is not soft-pedaling the OMB Money Coup, but gosh please put out some better meme images. Stop posting PDFs, people!
posted by away for regrooving at 10:21 PM on January 28 [1 favorite]


> I have some trouble imagining the military turning.

he hasn't yet fired the joint chiefs and installed 'loyalists'...
Joint Chiefs chair says he plans to stay on under Trump - "[Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. CQ] Brown, who attended Trump's inauguration ceremony in the Capitol rotunda, for months has been the target of Trump's and his associates' vows to immediately fire U.S. military leaders who they view as too focused on diversity initiatives. Among those attacking Brown was Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Defense secretary, who said on a podcast in early November that Brown, who is Black, needed to be fired. 'First of all, you got to fire the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Any general that was involved, general, admiral, whatever, that was involved in any of the DEI woke s–t has got to go,' Hegseth said..."

also btw...
Tillis Assured Hegseth's Former Sister-in-Law Her Testimony Could Convince GOP Senators to Vote No - "A key witness in the contentious Senate confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was assured by Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) that her sworn statement would carry weight in last week's vote and could convince Republican senators to oppose the nominee, according to people familiar with the events."
Tillis personally assured Danielle Hegseth in a call on Jan. 19, witnessed by two other people, that if she signed the statement testifying that she believed her former brother-in-law Pete Hegseth has an alcohol abuse problem and was abusive to his second wife, it would carry weight, and potentially move three votes—his own, along with the votes of Sens. Susan Collins (R., Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska), those people said.

On Friday, Tillis became the 50th senator to vote “yes” on Hegseth, clinching his confirmation to lead the Pentagon...

In a statement issued immediately after the vote Friday night, Danielle Hegseth said that she was promised a week earlier that her statement, on the record, would corroborate other accusations and make a difference in key votes. She didn’t say who promised her this. “But in the end, it did not,” she said. “What happened today will make women who have experienced abuse and mistreatment even less forthcoming.”

Danielle Hegseth’s sworn statement, made under penalty of perjury, accused Pete Hegseth of alcohol abuse and erratic behavior, and said his ex-wife, Samantha Hegseth, told her that she once hid from Hegseth in a closet because she feared for her personal safety. In a redacted portion, the statement also alleges that Samantha told Danielle that Pete Hegseth had allegedly “grabbed her groin without consent.”
america is back: "'I feel liberated,' said a top banker. 'We can say 'retard' and 'pussy' without the fear of getting cancelled . . . it's a new dawn.'"
posted by kliuless at 10:23 PM on January 28 [15 favorites]


but chatgpt says a 90% marginal bracket on all income over $800K would bring in +$500B/yr before Laffer Curve effects.

Please please please stop using chatbots for shit like this. They don't know anything. When they say this, all that this means is that a sentence like this is statistically likely to appear on the internet as a response to whatever you asked. That's all.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:16 AM on January 29 [53 favorites]


...They said they were going to do it. They've done it, and now the brunt of it is left to the people. There are certain echos to Brexit.
None of this makes me feel good. I'm very curious how things will be in six months - and I'm going to pretend I'm optimistic.

Last night we were watching TV (well, a TV show hosted by Jan Böhmermann (funny, often)) and there was a clip drawing links between a 'new' 'news' internet site and what the hosts of this site had done before and among them was a far-right crack pot who spoke at some new-fascist conference in Hungary last year AND in her speech she mentions they are going to propose all kinds of crazy shit to slam the Overton window hard to the right. Which is what these actions all feel like (and has been mentioned differently elsewhere) even if 90% of what they are asking for doesn't work, they will have shifted the discourse, put it into people's heads that this is possible and "maybe not such a bad idea, man." The left should do this. Recently on some social media platform I saw someone arguing that if we can have billionaires, we can have universal health-care and housing. (Which is far from incendiary) But you get the idea.

The left should propose, seriously, with intent, taking 'extreme' steps that help the majority of the people (not corporations, not billionaires.)
posted by From Bklyn at 3:51 AM on January 29 [14 favorites]


If it’s so clearly a coup then you should be able to point to one of the 40 other auto coups that are similar in process. You could even ask the scholars who define these categories! Hint they are on blue sky and have opinions.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:53 AM on January 29


A court injunction is in place, is that order being respected? Is the money actually flowing again across all sectors and departments? Articles from the usual places don't have a follow up, seemingly resting on the assumption that of course the court would be respected.
posted by Slackermagee at 4:57 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


If it’s so clearly a coup then you should be able to point to one of the 40 other auto coups that are similar in process.

Does it matter? Lately I've been thinking about how much we overcompensate by suppressing our initial reactions because we value being reasoned people who aren't driven by emotions and misinformation like those on the right. Something bad is happening. Maybe it doesn't meet the strict definition of a coup, but it's still enough to scare the shit out of people, and maybe the word "coup" with all it's connotations is the best way to convey what's going on?

If you're worried about the word losing it's meaning, rest assured: Republicans have already used "coup" to describe the peaceful transfer of power in 2021, so it's not like we're doing it any further damage.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:38 AM on January 29 [15 favorites]


Maybe just don't feed the troll, RonButNot Stupid.
posted by Rykey at 5:42 AM on January 29 [4 favorites]


It’s not helpful to ignore cites in favor of speculation.

A political scientist who formerly advised defense, and defines it as an auto coup, then provides other examples here: https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/01/the-return-of-the-presidential-putsch.html

Also, I’d say words and definitions very much matter here, as there are patterns to how coups work, and whether they win or lose.
posted by Violet Blue at 5:48 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


Thanks Violet Blue. If we think of this as a presidential putsch, what can we learn from other nations’ experiences with those? What actions will he take to neuter the middle class? Do we need to eg move our retirement savings or other funds? We own our house almost free and clear, is that a good thing or a bad thing now?

I’ve got a manuscript ready for resubmission except for coauthor signoff, and I’d like to get it in ASAP so that if I’m furloughed in a week or two the work doesn’t go to waste. When I sent a follow-up just now encouraging a rapid response and explaining the urgency, one responded patronizingly in a way that made me 90% sure they voted for Trump. Check, not applying to work with YOU if this life plan falls through.

It’s hard to explain the emotions around this. It’s just exhausting having to live moment to moment in the way that you do when the foundations of normal life aren’t there. I feel like you do when you spend three hours reloading Twitter, except for me it has been, for various reasons, most of the last six years. I will in no way be the worst off if my career crumbles (see above re: house), I will probably be among the economically safest people I know, but that does not make me feel better At All. Gratitude platitudes in this situation just feel like so much “I’ve got mine, and screw you.”
posted by eirias at 6:36 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


So let's say judicial review for constitutionality does occur, and Trump activity X is found to be unconstitutional. Trump says thanks for the update, now go pound sand. What happens next? What are the enforcement / punishment mechanisms available?

It's easy to forget that there are individuals all up and down the chain of people who would actually make a sweeping change like this happen, and exactly one of them has presidential immunity. Implementing an unconstitutional order, and one that is sufficiently widely covered that it would be very hard to claim ignorance, would itself be a prosecutable offense.

Careerists, who do not wish to go to prison, will for the most part probably not obey these orders. If they're removed and replaced, then, depending on the circumstances of their replacement, their replacement might be judged unconstitutional as well and then you have two separate groups of people claiming to have the same jobs and it's a big old mess. But eventually, at some point, if someone carries these orders out, there's a pretty good likelihood that person ends up in prison.

At the end of the day, the President, or even a Presidential administration, does things by relying on individuals who are not the President to make those things happen. Sheer force of will can't make that occur in the face of an explicit order from another branch of government that it not happen.
posted by jackbishop at 6:36 AM on January 29 [4 favorites]


But they “retain pay and benefits regardless of daily workload.” Perhaps that’s a lie too—but there are people for whom 8 months of paid vacation will be appealing.

In most mid-level office jobs I know of, in or out of government, anyone who wants to not work for (at least) eight months and be terminated at the end of it could do that right now if they wanted. Bureaucracies are slow and in a salaried position which does not have day-to-day deliverables, eight months is a pretty short amount of time for an organization to notice that you're not working and fully go through the necessary steps to fire you.
posted by jackbishop at 6:41 AM on January 29 [5 favorites]


Budget overhaul could cut deep in Trump country

Presumably, federal dollars will be disbursed based on loyalty in the near future. The question is whether states like CA and NY decide to start complicating the collections process, I guess.
posted by reedbird_hill at 6:42 AM on January 29 [3 favorites]


Implementing an unconstitutional order, and one that is sufficiently widely covered that it would be very hard to claim ignorance, would itself be a prosecutable offense.
And if he just pardons them every time?
posted by Glinn at 6:44 AM on January 29


That's all true, jackbishop, but... I'd feel better about that assessment if the people who did, in fact, go to prison for going along with Trump's insanity weren't pardoned left and right later. To put it another way: this time around, Trump will at least try to ignore whomever he wants, and there's a nonzero number of dipshits up and down the chain--many of whom he's busy installing right now--who will risk prison to give him what he wants.
posted by Rykey at 6:45 AM on January 29 [4 favorites]


Yeah, the whole premise is laws-that-protect-but-do-not-bind--if you are loyal to me I will make sure that you share in my impunity.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 6:48 AM on January 29 [17 favorites]


I just saw an announcement from a university that included this very carefully worded sentence:
"News outlets reported on clarifying statements from the Department of Education today indicating that no Pell grants, federal student loans, or funding for federal work study would be paused or delayed as a part of this effort."
I know no one wants to be held accountable later for making false statements, but this seems a little....passive voice to me.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:08 AM on January 29 [5 favorites]


> The left should do this. Recently on some social media platform I saw someone arguing that if we can have billionaires, we can have universal health-care and housing. (Which is far from incendiary) But you get the idea.

The left should propose, seriously, with intent, taking 'extreme' steps that help the majority of the people (not corporations, not billionaires.)


@Public_Citizen: "Everything that gets labeled 'far-left' in the US is common sense policy in the rest of the industrialized world. Guaranteed health care. Paid family leave. Government drug price negotiation. Gun control. It isn't radical. We're talking about the basics of a functioning society."

The Pivot of History: "governments of the ostensible 'centre-left'... are incapable of reviving neoliberalism in its progressive, internationalist guise, but are also unwilling to properly embrace the legacy of postwar social democratic nationalism."

Scary Reason Democratic Party Blocked Progressive AOC from Leadership May Spell Doom For Democracy - "Connolly was endorsed by the New Democrat Coalition—the Democrats who take big corporate money. AOC was endorsed by the Progressive Caucus—the Democrats who don't take corporate money. That tells you everything about what's going on here."
I think this is a travesty. I’m disgusted. We have a gerontocracy. Now, I know that age can often confer wisdom, and I’m all in favor of that. But America is a relatively young country—the median age is 39. AOC is 35.

On the other hand, look at the Senate. The five youngest U.S. senators—now I realize we’re talking about the House and not the Senate—but out of the five youngest senators, four of them are Republicans. Republicans are beating us at reaching out to young people.

There was a huge swing among young voters toward Republicans. Why? Because so many young people get their news, not from traditional media—where Democrats spend all their money—but from alternative platforms. Democratic consultants, who run the campaigns, make their money by taking a commission from placing ads on traditional television. Meanwhile, Republicans invest in media operations.

The biggest example is Twitter. Elon Musk bought it, tweaked the algorithm, and spent $44 billion to do it. But Musk has made almost $200 billion since Trump was elected. Twitter cost him $44 billion, and he put $277 million into Trump’s campaign or into getting Trump elected. Seems like a pretty good investment.

And here we have Democrats saying, “Yeah, let’s put the 74-year-old guy with throat cancer in charge of one of the most powerful committees in Congress.” This is the committee where you can speak out, make waves, and get lots of publicity. Instead, the Democrats put this guy in charge.
Crashing the Economy: Trump's Blueprint for Power and Profit - "His billionaire social media backers are already seeding the ground. The US and the UK both embraced neoliberalism (destroy unions, cut taxes on the rich, embrace free trade) around the same time (Thatcher/Reagan) with similar consequences for the middle class of each country."
A new study by Channel 4 in England, reported in The Times, found:
“Most young people are in favour of turning the UK into a dictatorship, according to a ‘deeply worrying’ study, which has revealed an acceptance of authoritarianism and radicalism among Generation Z.

“Fifty-two per cent of Gen Z — people aged between 13 and 27 — said they thought ‘the UK would be a better place if a strong leader was in charge who does not have to bother with parliament and elections.’

“Thirty-three per cent suggested the UK would be better off ‘if the army was in charge.’”
Where did they get these ideas? From social media, it turns out, including the feeds of accused racists, misogynists, and neofascists like “Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson,” who were “trusted” by 42 percent of British young men.

Fifty-eight percent said they trusted social media posts more than traditional news sources. And 45 percent believe women have gained too many rights, echoing Tate’s argument that, as young British men told Channel 4, “We have gone so far in promoting women’s equality that we are discriminating against men.”

Here in America, the percentage of young men who believe women have acquired too much power has increased from 32% to 45% in just five years, while fully 52% say they trust what they read or see on social media.[1,2,3]
The Memo That Hijacked American Democracy — And How Democrats Can Take It Back - "A single memo launched a strategy to control media, courts, and public opinion, reshaping American democracy. To reclaim it, Democrats must build a powerful media and policy network."
The plan for this wasn’t a secret; it was laid out in a 1971 memo by tobacco lawyer Lewis Powell, who Richard Nixon put on the Supreme Court in 1972 where he could participate in putting the plan into action — as he did with the Buckley and Bellotti decisions (Powell wrote the latter) legalizing political bribery by saying “money is free speech” and “corporations are persons.”

It began the corruption of the American government by the Reagan administration.

But the details of the GOP’s efforts — which Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors should begin to emulate now if our republic is to survive — are rarely discussed. Here’s what they did, in outline, and how Democrats can fight back.

First, Republicans realized that public opinion drives everything, so they set out to seize as much control over the instrument that drives public opinion as they could: the media.

Second, they realized that the Senate was the power-based linchpin for control of the legislative branch and the key to controlling both the Executive and Judicial branches because only the Senate confirms presidential cabinet positions and federal judges.

If they controlled the Senate much of the time and occasionally got a Republican president, they could also easily stack both the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court.

To control the Senate, they knew, they had to control a majority of the states. And that came back to controlling public opinion through the media, particularly in low-population or largely rural states where media could be bought or coopted cheaply.

To first influence public opinion, back in the 1970s-1990s era, billionaires associated with the GOP built a whole series of institutions whose sole purpose was to influence public opinion in ways that comported with the billionaire’s oligarchic agenda.

They crank out policy papers, write op-eds for newspapers and websites, engage in social media, and provide “expert” guests for TV, radio, NPR, and podcasts. Another major function is to “educate” and lobby Republican elected officials about policy and nominees to executive and judicial positions.

Those include:
— Cato Institute
— Mercatus Center at George Mason University
— Americans for Prosperity
— Heritage Foundation
— Manhattan Institute
— American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
— Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)
— DonorsTrust
— Independent Women's Forum (IWF)
— Federalist Society
— Judicial Crisis Network (Now Concord Fund)
— Republican State Leadership Committee
— Alliance Defending Freedom
— Marble Freedom Trust
— 85 Fund (Formerly Judicial Education Project)

They also created the State Policy Network, which funds and guides a network of state-based think tanks in every state in America. They similarly influence political discussion through interactions with the media by publishing papers, participating in social media, and lobbying/educating Republican governors, state representatives, and senators. (At the end of this article is a list of them.)

There is no similar infrastructure on the left because no lefty billionaires ever set out to create one.
Why Do Republicans Hate a Prosperous Middle Class? - "The real reason GOP policies target wages, unions, and public education."
The greed embraced by Republican politicians — and the billionaires and CEOs who fund them — is why average Americans can’t have nice things. It’s why we and our children must walk the tightrope of life without the same safety net other countries — from Canada to Costa Rica, France to Taiwan — offer their citizens.
posted by kliuless at 7:12 AM on January 29 [48 favorites]


Kluiless, that last link is disheartening, but really resonates with what I have seen over the last few years.

And it doesn't give me much hope that there is a place where we can change their minds, which is bleak.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:28 AM on January 29 [7 favorites]


Yep. A prosperous middle class makes demands of its rulers, they're comfortable enough to be able to devote time to social and political causes they care about, and they're educated and networked enough to band together. They can mostly afford lawyers and health care. Sometimes they even penetrate the class ceiling and become *shudder* elected officials themselves! Far too independent and uppity for the wealthy to tolerate.
posted by Rykey at 7:34 AM on January 29 [11 favorites]


Mod note: No deletions made so far but if you think someone is actively trolling this thread, please flag their comment(s) and move on but avoid turning the conversation around them and let's avoid calling other members trolls.
posted by loup (staff) at 7:40 AM on January 29 [1 favorite]


Mea culpa, my apologies.
posted by Rykey at 7:42 AM on January 29 [2 favorites]


I'd feel better about that assessment if the people who did, in fact, go to prison for going along with Trump's insanity weren't pardoned left and right later.

I'm not saying that imprisonment is the end of this process, but there every bit of sand in the gears of autocracy helps. The more they are forced to spend overt energy, and naked corruption, fighting against the decisions made by other branches, the more their legitimacy erodes.

It's possible that there's enough indifference and/or outright support for open autocracy that there is never any sort of widespread movement against this, in which case, eh, we're just waiting for the end and nothing matters, but Id prefer to believe that people, in aggregate, are capable of being alarmed and woken up, and every occasion when they show their true colors moves the needle a bit.
posted by jackbishop at 7:51 AM on January 29 [7 favorites]


pardoned left and right later.

Pardoned doesn't mean you get reimbursed for all that money you paid your lawyers. Pardoned doesn't automatically get you your job back. Pardoned doesn't get you your house back that you sold to pay lawyers. Pardoned doesn't get you your retirement fund back that you emptied out to pay lawyers and basic living expenses while you were on trial or in jail or in prison. Pardoned for Federal crimes doesn't make you immune to charges for similar and related state crimes. Pardoned doesn't make you immune to civil actions from people and organizations you may have harmed.

I mean, you're not wrong to be concerned about true believers being installed, but the personal cost-benefit analysis for a Deputy Assistant Secretary pulling down like $180k a year is probably rather different than for Trump or Hegseth or other big names who are already rich, and Trump is well-known for throwing people under the bus and making them fend for themselves regardless of their past use to and loyalty to him (Rudy Giuliani, just as a recent example.) There may well be limits to how much trouble people are willing to get into on Trump's orders.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:59 AM on January 29 [10 favorites]


The insane thing about cults though is how many of the true believers are ready and willing to throw their lives away to see his 'vision' realized. I'm afraid there's enough of them to do it.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 8:05 AM on January 29 [4 favorites]


From before the election, but worth revisiting ProPublica's articles given what is going on and includes a video specifically about crafting Executive Orders:

Watch: 14 Hours of Never-Before-Published Videos From Project 2025’s Presidential Administration Academy

Inside Project 2025’s Secret Training Videos
One centerpiece of that program is dozens of never-before-published videos created for Project 2025’s Presidential Administration Academy. The vast majority of these videos — 23 in all, totaling more than 14 hours of content — were provided to ProPublica and Documented by a person who had access to them.

The Project 2025 videos coach future appointees on everything from the nuts and bolts of governing to how to outwit bureaucrats. There are strategies for avoiding embarrassing Freedom of Information Act disclosures and ensuring that conservative policies aren’t struck down by “left-wing judges.” Some of the content is routine advice that any incoming political appointee might be told. Other segments of the training offer guidance on radically changing how the federal government works and what it does.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 8:20 AM on January 29 [12 favorites]


There is no similar infrastructure on the left because no lefty billionaires ever set out to create one.

I think we are running into an unforeseen political problem that puts us past concerns over coups, autocracy, etc.: The rich will become victims of their own success. Their propaganda campaign has changed enough laws that our economy now generates a lot of rich people, and rich people are typically not content to simply be rich; they must accumulate more wealth--and, importantly for my little political theory--more power. It's the billionaire equivalent of the bourgeoisie suddenly desiring a say in government.

We can't have an autocracy because billionaires do not want to be told what to do. And there are too many of them. We have somewhere over 700 billionaires in the US, and over 20 million millionaires. That is a lot of very wealthy people jostling for power within their sub-sub-classes.

But by the same token we can no longer have an oligarchy. We've got too many of them for the oligo- part of things. They are not particularly united on any front other than "give us more."

I don't think we have useful examples of this in history, or in the present. We can't point to Russian oligarchs because there aren't enough of them, and the Russian economy is not set up to create more. We can't point to Chinese autocracy because our government is captured by the billionaires rather than vice versa. No other country is really big enough and rich enough to provide any guidance.

In fact we're in something like Greek mythology at this point: How do you coordinate among the competing desires of millions of demigods? Who can rein them in?

There's a model that says the billionaires aren't thinking ahead, that they're content to parasitize off the government and economy--but that economy is fragile, can shrink quickly if not constantly inflated, and at some point that parasitism ceases to make sense. Your host has got to be big and healthy, or you're one dead parasite.

I suppose my question is, are any billionaires smart enough to form a bloc that can keep the host alive? Does anyone in power realize just how much is required to keep the trough full (to mix my metaphors)? Is the era of growth over?
posted by mittens at 8:30 AM on January 29 [14 favorites]


There may well be limits to how much trouble people are willing to get into on Trump's orders.

I'm more concerned about how much trouble people are willing to avoid by following Trump's orders. Firing inspectors general, DOJ attorneys, and members of the EEOC and NLRB; cutting security details; putting civil servants on administrative leave; reclassifying government workers as "policy" positions that can be easily fired: these are all intended to make oversight risky or outright impossible.

Just look at the main subject of this post: we didn't see a significant number of government employees flatly refusing to turn off the flow of grant money. Even in a case where a court (rightly) almost immediately stayed the effects of the memo (at least theoretically), there was apparently virtually no civil disobedience from government workers willing to bet that what they were being asked to do was both morally and legally wrong. And this is a group of workers that are somewhat more likely to be Democrats than the overall population (~50% vs 41%), particularly among the senior executives (~63%), who rank just below the political appointees.

(An aside: from the 2021 study linked above, Republican presidents have been vastly more partisan in their political appointments, choosing fellow Republicans over 3 times as often as Democratic presidents choose Democrats. Infuriating.)
posted by jedicus at 8:31 AM on January 29 [11 favorites]


Sadly this seems win-win for the baddies at this moment. Either TFG gets his way and establishes a very dictatorial presidency, or it becomes very early overreach and a Republican house and senate impeach and pave the way for a less controversial but still very Project 2025 friendly President Vance.

Do not obey in advance seems like good advice at this point—it seems the president is not acting within the bounds of the constitution—but that's easy for me to say.
posted by mazola at 8:34 AM on January 29 [2 favorites]


>Fifty-two per cent of Gen Z — people aged between 13 and 27 — said they thought ‘the UK would be a better place if a strong leader was in charge

20% will instigate
20% will bandwagon
20% will dither
20% will keep their heads down
20% will oppose

>1971 memo by tobacco lawyer Lewis Powell

Powell was literally a RINO by today's standards; a corporate lawyer who joined the majority opinion of Roe v. Wade. 5 of the 7 in the majority opinion were appointed by Eisenhower and Nixon.
posted by torokunai2 at 8:36 AM on January 29 [1 favorite]


Former Sanders, Fetterman campaign consultants start new firm aimed at winning back working-class voters

A group of Democratic strategists who worked for some of the biggest unorthodox names in liberal politics is launching a new firm.

The consultants who helped guide Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign and the winning Senate bids for John Fetterman and Ruben Gallego are branding their new company Fight Agency.

They said they’re aiming to elect more nontraditional candidates with a populist, anti-establishment streak. They’re even open to fielding left-leaning independents who eschew the Democratic Party label altogether.

The kickoff of the company is the latest sign that Democrats are rethinking their approach to elections after President Donald Trump won for a second time with working-class voters of all stripes, once the bedrock of their party’s base.
posted by Violet Blue at 8:41 AM on January 29 [9 favorites]


Not to dial anything down on the whole Gen Z thing, but was this broken out by age? The younger people are and the less life experience they have (especially when we're talking about thirteen year olds!) the more likely they are to think of strong leaders and the military as good guys, precisely because they are still learning about the world and even a pretty smart and sophisticated young teenager hasn't had time to build a complex worldview.

People have been talking about how authoritarian young people are since I was a young people. I'm not saying that nothing has changed or that we live in freewheeling anti-authoritarian times, but I think it's important to be cautious about how adults understand children and teens, especially when the result is an extremely click-baity poll.

I also think that there's too much polling. I've participated in some political polls and I was not really impressed, for the most part, with how they were constructed or how they tried to get at opinions. People articulate their opinions in all kinds of ways that are not neatly captured by poll format, and we see polls going every which way, moving from day to day, etc, and I think this inclines people toward misleading and unstable understandings of the world. It also allows our political masters to rely on polling knowing full well that it cannot and does not capture what people believe or want and rather that it steers them to believe in a limited range of options.

I'm not trying to minimize how bad things are - they are very bad! - but people in the aggregate are various and malleable. It is through recongizing this, if anything, that the right has understood how they can manipulate voters and numbers.
posted by Frowner at 8:54 AM on January 29 [13 favorites]


I'm more concerned about how much trouble people are willing to avoid by following Trump's orders.

If you haven't seen it, this post on the r/fednews subreddit should give you a lot of hope. Lots of Federal Employees on there talking about how important their oath is to them, and I'm sure a lot more reading.

"I solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God."
posted by anastasiav at 8:57 AM on January 29 [21 favorites]


The thing with grants is the only thing we saw was centralized portals shut down. Those are handled by a much smaller team of people. And unless Trump intends to permanently cut all grant funding for everyone everywhere—which I won’t put past him, but we aren’t there yet—then the rest of it is going to go through a lot more people with opportunities to resist.
posted by brook horse at 9:02 AM on January 29 [3 favorites]


I share Frowner’s understanding of many of the polls out there as bad for the polis, and intended to manipulate more than to measure. If I have not heard of the firm calling me, which is almost always, I refuse to participate.
posted by eirias at 9:14 AM on January 29 [5 favorites]


I agree that words have meanings and it's important to not play too loose with them in order to have a productive conversation. But as some of the material users have linked to above, it's not mere speculation to suggest this is an auto-coup attempt. I do think that last part is important to keep in mind - there is no clear outcome from all of the this. Perhaps they will keep trying without much success until the midterms and we see a blue wave like never before. Or perhaps things will go in the other direction to a degree that's hard to comprehend.

This article, "I Lived Through A Stupid Coup. America Is Having One Now," written by a Sri Lankan as a warning letter to America after January 6th, is worth (re)reading now.

Key parts:
Two years ago, I lived through a coup in Sri Lanka. It was stupid. The minority party threw chili powder at everyone in Parliament and took over by farce. Math, however, requires a majority and the courts kicked them out. They gave in. We’d been protesting for weeks and yay, we won.

No.

I didn’t know it at the time, but we had already lost. No one knew — but oh my God, what we lost. The legitimate government came back but it was divided and weak. We were divided and weak. We were vulnerable.
...
What is a coup? It’s literally a blow, a strike. Someone hitting your normal processes of government, trying to knock them over. The blow doesn’t have to succeed. It still wounds. In our case it was occupying Parliament without a majority. In yours it’s denying the President-Elect after an election. [Oh wait, now you’ve attacked your Congress as well]. Whether it fails or not, deep structural damage is done. At the time, however, it just feels dumb.

Frankly, I expected more epaulets and tanks, but this is all you get. A bunch of dumbasses throwing chili powder. Someone at Four Seasons Total Landscaping, next to a dildo shop. What a fucking stupid century. This is what our coups look like.

As a recovering coup victim to another, let me tell you this. The first step is simply accepting that you’ve been coup’d. This is hard and your media or Wikipedia may never figure this out (WTF does constitutional crisis mean? Is murder an existential crisis?), but it’s nonetheless true. The US system is weird, but people voted for a change of power. One person is refusing to accept the people’s will. He’s taking power that doesn’t belong to him. That’s a coup.
...
I have lived through a coup. It felt like what you’re feeling now. Like watching something stupid and just waiting for it to go away. But it doesn’t go away. You can forget about it, but it doesn’t go away.

There’s a ticking bomb at the heart of your democracy now. Your government, the very idea of governance is fatally wounded. Chaos has been planted at its heart. I don’t know what this chaos will grow into, but I can promise you this. It won’t be good.
posted by coffeecat at 9:33 AM on January 29 [22 favorites]


we didn't see a significant number of government employees flatly refusing to turn off the flow of grant money.

There's been nothing for them to refuse, yet. The memo was dropped late Monday, was supposed to kick in Tuesday at end of business, and was so vaguely and incoherently worded that nobody understood it. And then it got blocked by the courts late Tuesday.

I don't think it's exactly fair to castigate mid level bureaucrats for failing to civil disobedience in less than 24 hours when they didn't even know what they were supposed to disobey.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:40 AM on January 29 [20 favorites]


My best friend works for the US government in the FAO (Financial Accountability Office) and I asked if these memos were affecting her directly. She said they apply to the Executive Branch; she's Legislative. She is also super bummed that Trump is back as she was hoping for a Harris administration big time.
posted by Kitteh at 9:53 AM on January 29


Marisa Kabas, the journalist who first broke this story, posted on Bluesky that the OMB has just rescinded the previous memo freezing all federal financial assistance programs.
posted by maddieD at 10:00 AM on January 29 [17 favorites]


Marisa Kabas is reporting on Bluesky that the original memo has been rescinded.
posted by mygothlaundry at 10:02 AM on January 29 [9 favorites]


Jinx!
posted by mygothlaundry at 10:02 AM on January 29 [2 favorites]


Just look at the main subject of this post: we didn't see a significant number of government employees flatly refusing to turn off the flow of grant money.

I've no idea what's really going on or who was making what decisions.

But this kind of thing is also what smart civil servants trying to resist might do. Interpret whatever order you've been given in the most obviously and immediately harmful and/or unpopular way possible to create enough public outrage to get the order reversed / reduced.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:03 AM on January 29 [3 favorites]


The Cline Center for Advanced Social Research at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign has developed a Coup d’État Project Dataset over the last several years.

Here's the description: "Coups d'État are important events in the life of a country. They constitute an important subset of irregular transfers of political power that can have significant and enduring consequences for national well-being. There are only a limited number of datasets available to study these events (Powell and Thyne 2011, Marshall and Marshall 2019). Seeking to facilitate research on post-WWII coups by compiling a more comprehensive list and categorization of these events, the Cline Center for Advanced Social Research (previously the Cline Center for Democracy) initiated the Coup d'État Project as part of its Societal Infrastructures and Development (SID) project.

More specifically, this dataset identifies the outcomes of coup events (i.e. realized or successful coups, unrealized coup attempts, or thwarted conspiracies) the type of actor(s) who initiated the coup (i.e. military, rebels, etc.), as well as the fate of the deposed leader."

I have yet to spot any analysis of yesterday's events, but there is an interesting interview on Politico from 2022, with one of the Cline people, called Ask the ‘Coupologists’: Just What Was Jan. 6 Anyway?
posted by Violet Blue at 10:06 AM on January 29 [9 favorites]


Tillis personally assured Danielle Hegseth in a call on Jan. 19, witnessed by two other people, that if she signed the statement testifying that she believed her former brother-in-law Pete Hegseth has an alcohol abuse problem and was abusive to his second wife, it would carry weight, and potentially move three votes—his own, along with the votes of Sens. Susan Collins (R., Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska), those people said.
On Friday, Tillis became the 50th senator to vote “yes” on Hegseth, clinching his confirmation to lead the Pentagon...


This shocks me not at all after what happened at the Kavanaugh hearings. There's no point in trying to fight back when all you get is death threats and that you ruined your own life by trying, and nothing you said made the slightest bit of difference.

BlueSky is blocked for me here, what did the memo say?
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:06 AM on January 29 [8 favorites]


Marisa Kabas is reporting on Bluesky that the original memo has been rescinded.

Because of course it fucking is; we haven't elected Mussolini or even Berlusconi, we've elected Benny Hill.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:06 AM on January 29 [21 favorites]


Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) from Senate floor yesterday, opposing President Trump's federal government employee "buyout" plan, among other things: C-SPAN video clip (about 14 minutes). The "buyout" talk starts about 8 minutes in.
posted by gudrun at 10:13 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


Because of course it fucking is; we haven't elected Mussolini or even Berlusconi, we've elected Benny Hill.

kittens! You made me laugh for the first time since this started with that Benny Hill crack. Thank you!
posted by Violet Blue at 10:16 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


> jenfullmoon: "BlueSky is blocked for me here, what did the memo say?"

The text of the memo:
January 29, 2025


M-25-14

MEMORANDUM FOR HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES

FROM: Matthew J. Vaeth, Acting Director, Office of Management and Budget

SUBJECT: Rescission of M-25-13

         OMB Memorandum M-25-13 is rescinded. If you have questions about implementing the President's Executive Orders, please contact your agency General Counsel.
posted by mhum at 10:19 AM on January 29 [3 favorites]


So, NSF is not disbursing funds. Everything is halted. I can confirm this because of an official NSF email that I personally saw with these eyes mid-morning.

It is unclear to me whether these agencies are going to actually disburse funds or whether they're just going to say oh of COURSE funds are being disbursed, what do you mean you don't have any.

At the same time, famously there is a lot of ruin in a nation. It is difficult to govern a complex, developed, large, federated country by fiat once people really internalize that's what you're doing, because they will start to work around you just to get through the day. The more the center flexes its muscles, the more the periphery doesn't cooperate. The more the center cuts off, the less leverage they have. So for instance I could easily see a point where CA just....doesn't do meaningful quantities of deportations. CA is rich. If the feds use up all their leverage and don't have anything to offer CA, there's no incentive to cooperate, and if the crops are rotting in the fields, there's a lot of incentive to slow roll. And of course, the center can control a couple of states with troops, probably...but you can't control an entire large developed country by putting a soldier on every corner. And once CA is like "fuck you, you offer us nothing, we will not comply" lots of other places will stop complying.

Trump et al have leverage over the universities as long as the universities are getting money from them. The more money gets cut off, the less leverage they have. No federal dollars would be extremely bad, but in the long run universities would go private, rely on private loans for students, etc. Or, if the states really do cut themselves loose, there would be more state funding. I think it would be hard for the Trump administration to say, "it is illegal for private companies to offer student loans", for instance.

Bear in mind that local elites don't necessarily like or ally with national elites. If the way it shakes out is "you Governor Smith are nothing but a puppet of Trump and we are removing all your state's resources, so you are much less powerful and don't have any patronage to dole out AND if you comply with us your crops will rot in the fields and your businesses will collapse", that isn't going to make Governor Smith and their network love the center. Governor Smith has to deal with all the big landowners and angry parents and local protests and crashing tax revenue and university presidents and car dealership owners and so on who are all on his case when the policies of the center hurt local groups. Trump can just say, "whatever, rip the peasants off and throw them in jail if they complain", but Smith has to deal with the actual pitchforks, and he has much less incentive to machine gun people in the streets.

Most of the really, really authoritarian countries we think of when we think of Trump are either small or client states or undeveloped, or some combination. If Trump were talking about ruling New York by fiat, or ruling the mountain west by fiat, it would be much easier because you wouldn't need a lot of troops and/or the area wouldn't have a lot of its own resources.

Granted, it is going to be an absolute nightmare for regular people as all this shakes out, but my feeling is that there is a limit to how much squeezing Trump can do in the long run.
posted by Frowner at 10:22 AM on January 29 [25 favorites]


Just look at the main subject of this post: we didn't see a significant number of government employees flatly refusing to turn off the flow of grant money

Is that necessarily a worse strategy than following through and letting people notice? The right has already picked up the term “malicious compliance” to dismiss any negative impacts but what do you think you’re going to get with such a broad order?

Of course I have also seen people pushing the line that “turn it all off and turn back on the stuff people complain about” is a deliberate and brilliant cost-saving measure, and honestly I would not be surprised if this is what Musk and co. think they are doing, but then it comes down to a PR battle. “Can’t you see, the memo says don’t cut funds for any of the good things, clearly this is on the mid-level bureaucrats” vs. “sure thing, boss, we just turned off student loans and Head Start and Medicaid.” It does not at all seem like a given that the administration will be able to sell the former view.
posted by atoxyl at 10:27 AM on January 29 [2 favorites]


And...nevermind
posted by condesita at 10:31 AM on January 29 [3 favorites]


That's a good point Frowner. The US is really just 50 small to large countries in a trench coat. And a lot of those 200 million millionaires that Mitten mentioned are rich because of local state-level companies. Construction, intensive farming operations, local restaurant chains. They love the central government when it benefited them in pushing down wages, getting away with abusive practices. Once the federal government's actions start to actually hurt their bottom lines, their first recourse will be to turn to state government and start complaining.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 10:33 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


What I'm a little unclear on is whether Trump can now just go to Congress to ask for permission to do the freeze (as per Impoundment Act, if I understand it correctly), which given who controls Congress seems likely, even if a few GOP senators defect.
posted by coffeecat at 10:33 AM on January 29


The trouble with all this stuff is it's being done with arm-twisting. Clearly, many people were freaking out behind the scenes. It's clear that any kind of equity or LGBTQ or BIPOC or women-oriented research is going to be canceled as soon as they get their act together so there's going to be a LOT of funding loss and probably the feds will put the arm on universities to get rid of, eg, programs that touch on LGBTQ health even if they're privately funded, and it's quite possible that federal money will be conditional on universities getting rid of Women's Studies programs or even, hell, "Women Writers of the 19th Century" for all I know. But I wonder if Trump will really feel like going to Congress and getting permission to do this same thing that freaks everyone out. It would be a dice roll, I think, and it would still leave them dealing with chaos and widespread unhappiness and bad media. MAGAs etc may not care about women writers of the 19th century, but they presumably would like to get grandpa's cancer resected at the VA.
posted by Frowner at 10:40 AM on January 29 [10 favorites]


I wonder if they're going to do their best in every underhanded way to fire every female federal worker they can. Shades of Handmaid's tale, but even if they get sued to high heaven by the workers, they can drag those cases out for years too, right?
posted by sharp pointy objects at 10:44 AM on January 29 [4 favorites]


apparently, the freeze has been lifted.
posted by clavdivs at 10:45 AM on January 29 [1 favorite]


Re: the Thom Tillis thing - as a former North Carolinian believe me when I say there is absolutely nothing despicable that horrible little worm wouldn't do. He is entirely loathsome.

jenfullmoon, it's a *very* brief memo. It just says OMB M 25-13 is rescinded & if you have questions ask the general counsel.
posted by mygothlaundry at 10:45 AM on January 29 [10 favorites]


So I guess another one-sentence memo would be enough to unrecind it.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 10:48 AM on January 29


What I'm a little unclear on is whether Trump can now just go to Congress to ask for permission to do the freeze

He can absolutely do that, there is an established process for it. But it is a lot more nuanced and line-item by line-item than this memo was. Putting on my harm-mitigation hat, even successful impoundment through that process would mean a lot more time for programs to prepare and less panic among the most vulnerable recipients of federal funds (SNAP, for example). Impoundment would also have to pass both the House and the Senate, which is a high bar, and would mean open debate on each and every line item.

Honestly, its a lot of work. They sent out this memo to create panic, but also because they're too lazy to do the work. I'd be surprised if they want to do the work, but we'll see.
posted by anastasiav at 10:50 AM on January 29 [5 favorites]


trump has been very successful so far in his quest to make as many enemies as possible - and he just lost the first round - he backed down

his mccarthyite purge of all the dei people and his attempt to get greenland are an obsessive's madnesses - he will continue to ask for impossible things while things go to hell

the real crisis comes when the people behind him realize that he is not suitable for their purposes any more or when the extreme right realizes he will never go far enough for them and has betrayed him

as for me i think the real problem is we have a president - period - it's too much power to give to one person without giving us an easy method to get rid of him

good luck on that
posted by pyramid termite at 10:57 AM on January 29 [6 favorites]


Honestly, its a lot of work. They sent out this memo to create panic, but also because they're too lazy to do the work. I'd be surprised if they want to do the work, but we'll see.

Got it. I'm afraid the Stephen Miller is happy to do the work, even if he's also happy to try the wrecking ball approach first. I doubt this is over, but I guess it's slightly comforting that at least some line-items will be safe.
posted by coffeecat at 10:58 AM on January 29 [1 favorite]


It seems at this juncture bad policy might be inevitable, but resisting power grabs is the way to go. Consider it a win when they are forced to work to enact bad policy, via traditional means. Then mid-terms are two years away…
posted by mazola at 11:06 AM on January 29 [5 favorites]


kittens! You made me laugh for the first time since this started with that Benny Hill crack. Thank you!

Daily US life is marginally easier to endure if you imagine all of it soundtracked with 'Yakety Sax'.
posted by reedbird_hill at 11:09 AM on January 29 [16 favorites]


We can't let their losses go uncelebrated. When Democrats do ten things right and one thing wrong, all we can talk about is the one wrong thing. Trump just took a big swing and missed. Before we start anticipating all of his next swings, I suggest we take some space to mark the enormous loss. Trump is not a king and he is not a superhero. He is a malevolent moron. He just had a big setback that I hope demoralizes his supporters and obstructs some of the harm he hoped to accomplish.
posted by prefpara at 11:10 AM on January 29 [27 favorites]




I'll take the momentary setback as a net positive for sure, even if it is just one thing out of hundreds right now.

But don't worry, we'll get the gaslighting about how it was all a big mistake and wasn't really anything to worry about and it was a crazy conspiracy made up by the 'DEIA Marxists' to paint our two headed ruler in an unflattering light. While of course finding other means of implementing replacements.
posted by rambling wanderlust at 11:24 AM on January 29 [5 favorites]


as for me i think the real problem is we have a president - period - it's too much power to give to one person without giving us an easy method to get rid of him

We have methods, but like all possible methods of limiting power, they are susceptible to collusion. If you can't find the votes, you can't pull the ejection seat lever.
posted by pwnguin at 11:58 AM on January 29 [3 favorites]


FWIW, the current WH Press Sec. is stating the following on Twitter:
This is NOT a rescission of the federal funding freeze.

It is simply a rescission of the OMB memo.

Why? To end any confusion created by the court's injunction.

The President's EO's on federal funding remain in full force and effect, and will be rigorously implemented.
posted by mhum at 12:15 PM on January 29 [7 favorites]


Next, rescind the tweet, but not its effect.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 12:18 PM on January 29 [4 favorites]


Concepts of a freeze.
posted by Rykey at 12:19 PM on January 29 [15 favorites]


I need to reach out to an old friend — a senior medical specialist from the UK who accepted a research secondment to a teaching hospital in Texas in November — to see how quickly he has to get the hell back to Yorkshire.
posted by scruss at 12:24 PM on January 29 [3 favorites]


This is NOT a rescission of the federal funding freeze.

It is simply a rescission of the OMB memo.


WTF? This timeline still sucks.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:55 PM on January 29 [5 favorites]


That tweet is nonsensical. There was no EO to freeze federal funding. There was an OMB memo to freeze federal funding.
posted by maddieD at 1:03 PM on January 29 [9 favorites]


sharp pointy objects: The US is really just 50 small to large countries in a trench coat.

Hello from the unit-of-measure smallest state in the land, Rhode Island!

I must say, the attitude of "let's go it alone" smacks of accelerationism, down here at the low end of the scale. In point of fact we cannot exist in isolation, the way that the (economically) big states can. And while I personally agree that Little Rhodey really ought to just be annexed by Massachusetts, it hasn't happened yet, and we're vulnerable here.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:04 PM on January 29 [9 favorites]




That tweet is nonsensical. There was no EO to freeze federal funding. There was an OMB memo to freeze federal funding.

Yeah, what EO on federal funding? Is there one? What does it say?

Or is this a 'working toward the führer' kind of thing?
posted by mazola at 1:13 PM on January 29 [5 favorites]


Wenestvedt,

Ok, well it would probably be better if the whole West Coast and then the Northeast states clumped together and secessioned into two new 'countries'. You're right, a lot of the small states couldn't go it alone.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 1:16 PM on January 29 [2 favorites]


I see Judge McConnell granted a TRO, based in part on the "Take-backsies, but not really" Press Sec tweet indicating it was likely that a broad impoundment process itself was ongoing, irrespective of the status of an OMB memo.

Kind of amazing that villains monologuing their evil plans for everyone to hear Really Is A Thing. We should wholeheartedly support this Press Sec in any of her future monologuing plans.
posted by meehawl at 1:18 PM on January 29 [4 favorites]


Way down at the bottom of the Politico article:
However, [Judge] McConnell acknowledged that the administration’s action Wednesday may complicate his efforts to issue an order blocking the policy. He has asked the states to propose language for an order.
Retracting the memo is them playing Calvinball.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:23 PM on January 29 [4 favorites]


Xinhua (Chinese State Media) publishes this handy tome

Is there some need for this? All of the shit Trump is doing is quintessentially American; there's no reason to go "look, he's turning us into China, which is of course bad". It's like when people compare Christofascism to the Taliban; it serves no purpose but to say "THESE are the BAD Christians, like those nasty ARABS over there".
posted by adrienneleigh at 1:36 PM on January 29 [9 favorites]


Honestly, its a lot of work. They sent out this memo to create panic, but also because they're too lazy to do the work. I'd be surprised if they want to do the work, but we'll see.

Honestly, I think they sent out this memo because they thought it kicked ass. I think that they were surprised to learn that it did not kick ass.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 1:46 PM on January 29 [29 favorites]


"The ass! She is no kick!"
posted by grubi at 1:53 PM on January 29 [3 favorites]


>quintessentially American

"loyalty" demands sent from some shadowy entity installed in the government ?? nah, that's quintessentially unamerican.

The way fascist governments work is The Party Strongman in power puts its Party Members everywhere, watching out for The Party Strongman's hierarchal interests. This is what is going down now.
posted by torokunai2 at 2:12 PM on January 29 [4 favorites]


Is there some need for this? All of the shit Trump is doing is quintessentially American; there's no reason to go "look, he's turning us into China, which is of course bad".

I mean the reason is because once again with republicans, every accusation is a confession. Trump goes on and on about how eeeevil China is while his cronies rip off their playbook.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 2:20 PM on January 29 [3 favorites]


I'm senior personnel on an NSF grant, so I got the letter. If you haven't seen it, here is an excerpt from the bullshit:
In implementing President Trump’s Executive Orders, OMB issued guidance requesting that agencies temporarily pause, to the extent permitted by law, grant, loan or federal financial assistance programs that are implicated by the President’s Executive Orders.

Any program not implicated by the President’s Executive Orders is not subject to the pause.

The Executive Orders listed in the guidance are:
Protecting the American People Against Invasion
Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid
Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements
Unleashing American Energy
Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing
Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government
Enforcing the Hyde Amendment
All NSF grants by definition have a Broader Impacts statement explaining how us getting the grant benefits society. If you don't have Broader Impacts, you don't get a grant. It used to be, you could just say "my research is good for science" or maybe "I'll try to recruit some students from an HBCU". Now, people have detailed plans for how they personally will work to make science better for people from underrepresented groups, how they will collaborate with scientists from underresourced universities, how they will work with the communities they're researching to make sure they directly benefit from the research. It's been awesome to watch Broader Impacts actually become meaningful.

Every single one of those presumably violates some of the Orwellian nonsense above. Every single one. But absolutely especially those on our grant to make sure that kids at our Hispanic Serving and Asian American and Pacific Islander Serving Institution, which also has a lot of Black students, get access to cool science instruments previously only found at much better resourced institutions.

I just can't fucking believe that some well meaning high school teacher made these assholes read 1984 and this is what they got out of it.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:01 PM on January 29 [35 favorites]


NSF also has a page NSF Implementation of Recent Executive Orders.

I would imagine that every grant submitted over the past few years to the NSF and certainly the Department of Energy has had a DEIA-related focus. Does this mean every grant currently funded is in violation?

This is also causing confusion for planning for summer undergraduate research programs.
posted by armacy at 3:24 PM on January 29 [5 favorites]


That was one quick coup!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:27 PM on January 29




> I don't think we have useful examples of this in history, or in the present.

elite overproduction and anacyclosis?[1,2]

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past - "The 100-year Secular Cycles, Turchin believes, are caused by longer-term demographic trends. They occur when a population grows beyond its capacity to be productive, resulting in falling wages, a disproportionately large number of young people in the population, and increased state spending deficits. But there's a more important factor, one that better predicts instability than population growth. Turchin calls it 'elite overproduction.' This refers to a growing class of elites who are competing for a limited number of elite positions, such as political appointments... There are competing theories as well. A group of researchers at the New England Complex Systems Institute — who practice a discipline called econophysics — have built their own model of political violence and concluded that one simple variable is sufficient to predict instability: food prices."

The Mob Awakens - "According to the original version of Polybius's theory of Anacyclosis, society begins as tribal monarchy, develops into royal monarchy, then degenerates into tyranny. This in turn is overthrown by aristocracy, gets corrupted by oligarchy, and is later succeeded by democracy, which itself is perverted into ochlocracy (mob-rule) — finally opening the door (once again) to the chaos that makes autocratic rule palatable, thereby restarting the cycle."[3]
posted by kliuless at 11:42 PM on January 29 [8 favorites]


This is also causing confusion for planning for summer undergraduate research programs.

Yep. The NSF REU program was started explicitly to give students at less resourced universities with less access to research experience the possibility of spending the summer doing research at an R1 institution. It was so successful that now of course all these students from R1s want to spend their summers doing research at other R1s, but many of the programs have explicit missions of increasing the talent pool by training first gen, HBCU, HSI, etc. students in research. And January/February is when most of them have their application deadlines.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:37 AM on January 30 [2 favorites]




There are competing theories as well. A group of researchers at the New England Complex Systems Institute — who practice a discipline called econophysics — have built their own model of political violence and concluded that one simple variable is sufficient to predict instability: food prices

Another lesson in the importance of subject matter expertise.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:04 AM on January 30 [3 favorites]


elite overproduction and anacyclosis

I don’t think that’s right.
posted by anotherpanacea at 4:55 AM on January 30


I don’t think that’s right.

Un- and under-employed college graduates seem like an odd category to call "elite." (I don't know where you draw the lines between millionaires with influence over local politics and the underemployed petite bourgeoisie (per the noah smith piece linked above) and, like, broke people? but I think you've got to draw them somewhere, to have a coherent theory?)

I've stayed away from Turchin because the reviews of his books are so variable ("hooray finally science applied to history" vs "he got the math and the science and the history wrong but it was also unreadable")...but maybe I need to give him a try, at least to know what I'm disagreeing with.
posted by mittens at 5:58 AM on January 30 [2 favorites]


MisantropicPainforest, get that "Asimov's Foundation fanfic" outta here!

Wait, that's a real thing? I mean, I agree with them (or I do now, anyway), but that excerpt edges close to sounding like old scifi.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:26 AM on January 30


What I found grating about this stuff is that there are whole disciplines devoted to the study of political violence, and these bozos just sidestep it. And then write op eds like 'its all about food prices'.

Forex: 'NECSI research into the causes of ethnic violence have identified one factor that strongly predicts sectarian strife: the spatial geography of different cultural, religious and ethnic groups.'

Maybe just read a literature review instead?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:56 AM on January 30 [3 favorites]


Un- and under-employed college graduates seem like an odd category to call "elite."

It’s a pretty hopelessly underspecified account but the idea that a college degree doesn’t guarantee a good job and social influence seems to track the Turchin view.
posted by anotherpanacea at 10:23 AM on January 30 [1 favorite]




back around the Scaramucci era of Trump 1.0 I had wished I'd started keeping screenshots of all the outrageous things going down.

I had thought of starting a new clipping folder for Trump 2.0, like for the Greenland or Panama things, but I. Just. Can't. This cavalcade is intentional.
posted by torokunai2 at 2:36 PM on January 30 [3 favorites]


torokunai2: "back around the Scaramucci era of Trump 1.0 I had wished I'd started keeping screenshots of all the outrageous things going down.

I had thought of starting a new clipping folder for Trump 2.0, like for the Greenland or Panama things, but I. Just. Can't. This cavalcade is intentional.
"

I remember when 2008 set such a seemingly high bar for election shenanigans that there was a dedicated website for cataloging all the bizarre and ridiculous memes that came out of it in one single column of text that went on and on and on.

These days I think you'd need some sort of Holocron.
posted by Rhaomi at 3:02 PM on January 30 [2 favorites]


yeah back in 2003 I caught a mass media headline saying "Protests For, Against Iraq War", on CNN or some such. I clipped that for its absurdity but those were high sanity days compared to now.
posted by torokunai2 at 3:44 PM on January 30 [1 favorite]


We can't let their losses go uncelebrated. When Democrats do ten things right and one thing wrong, all we can talk about is the one wrong thing. Trump just took a big swing and missed. Before we start anticipating all of his next swings, I suggest we take some space to mark the enormous loss. Trump is not a king and he is not a superhero. He is a malevolent moron. He just had a big setback that I hope demoralizes his supporters and obstructs some of the harm he hoped to accomplish.
posted by prefpara


Without taking away from anything you (and others) have said on this, an alternative explanation is that Trump and his henchman knew this would provoke serious resistance, and that they would have to back down at some point, to some degree.

So why do it? In order to test not just the strength and nature of resistance, but more importantly where it is coming from. They are trying to flush out their 'enemies' within the system, to better target them.

What they misjudged was how quickly they would have to rescind it. Probably in part because of how much behind the scenes resistance came from within the Repub party, particularly at the state level

Not saying I agree with that interpretation. But I don't dismiss it either.

I would avoid the understandable and often justified urge to see Trump and his henchman as bumbling reactive fools for every mistake they make. Even the best of us make mistakes. He did manage to avoid any meaningful accountability for his attempted coup and stealing classified material, and they are back in power. That was no accident. They must have done some things right to get that result.

They have figured out how the system in the US is broken, and how to exploit it. The only question left is how far they can go, what they can really get away with.

–––––

I just can't fucking believe that some well meaning high school teacher made these assholes read 1984 and this is what they got out of it.
posted by hydropsyche


There are two types of people in this world. Those who see 1984 as a warning, and those who see it as an instruction manual.
posted by Pouteria at 4:03 PM on January 30 [7 favorites]


In the same vein, it turns out Idiocracy was a documentary from the future.
posted by Rykey at 4:34 PM on January 30 [1 favorite]




So why do it? In order to test not just the strength and nature of resistance, but more importantly where it is coming from. They are trying to flush out their 'enemies' within the system, to better target them

I'm not sure it's quite that subtle - HuffPost seems to have gotten its hands on a leaked OMB memo laying out the goal of engineering a legal battle over the President's control of funding so that eventually the SC rules that the Impoundment Act of 1974 is unconstitutional and Trump or any future conservative President can alter Congress' funding decisions after the fact. This is one of Vought's personal axes to grind.

Whether this particular clusterfuck is how they planned on kicking off the battle and whether it was the best route to get to their goal remains to be seen.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:10 PM on January 30 [13 favorites]


The play might have been to start slowly – and only partially – rolling back the freeze by obviously rewarding the sycophants and early submitters to send a clear message about what was expected in return for some funds.

But it didn't work out that way. Possibly in part because Trump himself does not have the capacity and patience to do long-term strategy. He wants the submission, and the conspicuous cruelty for the rest, right now.
posted by Pouteria at 12:35 AM on January 31 [3 favorites]


Vox has some good coverage of how the Trump admin is trying to dismantle USAID.
posted by ropeladder at 5:02 AM on January 31 [3 favorites]


Trump lacks the capacity and patience, and his inner circle is mostly people who don't understand how complicated things work because they have been told yes their entire lives. They also don't understand what financial constraints are because they're all extremely rich.

There's quite a lot of stuff they can brute-force. What they can't brute-force away is the consequences of stripping programs. Because they don't worry about money, they don't understand just how angry and desperate many, many people are going to get when all this stuff sinks in. They understand intellectually that they're harming people, yes, but because they have never worried about money they don't understand viscerally. As a result, they don't understand the local political consequences of their actions. No angry local construction mogul is going to be calling them up because they can't turn projects around because the workforce is disappeared or in hiding; no angry parents are going to be sitting in at their offices because the schools are falling apart. They've always been surrounded by yes-men and never known effort, struggle or hardship, so they just...don't understand that they're putting all this on local politicians, and the local politicians will not love them for it.

Government isn't a business, it isn't a real estate deal you get through because of your wealth and crooked connections. It's layers and layers and layers of interests and history. And of course, you can dismantle all that, but what these guys are clearly expecting is that they'll dismantle it all, there will be a few feeble sign-wavers in DC and while life may get worse for most people, nothing else will happen.

They're dumb people. They had four years, they had project 2025. I could literally off the top of my head make a better plan to get virtually everything in project 2025 over twelve months or so, with very very little pushback. This is, as the fellow said, a dying empire run by bad people. You could dismantle it without much resistance if you were smart.
posted by Frowner at 7:18 AM on January 31 [19 favorites]


An internal OMB document shows that it is official administration policy to block funding to provoke a constitutional challenge to the Impoundment Control Act of 1974, against which Trump lost his major case last time.
posted by jeffburdges at 9:15 AM on January 31 [3 favorites]




OK so leaving aside what Biden could/couldn't have done, and assuming that we actually do get to keep democracy and have elections that matter in 2026 and 2028....

What are the Democrat's plans for stripping the Presidency of all the mind boggling power it has in the hands of someone like Trump who won't pinkie swear not to abuse it?

Everything from the big stuff like part where the President can just decide to leave critical treaties and organizations a whim to the small stuff like the part where apparently the President can decide to rename major geographic features at random. And also apparently can cancel all civil rights programs, shut down any spending the don't like, etc.

I hear Democrats taking about other stuff, but maybe I'm just looking in the wrong places but I'm not seeing any comprehensive Presidential reform planning or talking going on.
posted by sotonohito at 10:22 AM on January 31 [3 favorites]


The whole point of having a Fuhrer is not having to worry about laws, policies, or rights.
posted by torokunai2 at 10:54 AM on January 31 [1 favorite]


I'm not seeing any comprehensive Presidential reform planning

I started to make a glib joke here, because of course every Democratic president's executive orders are quickly followed by conservative harumphing over overreach (here's Heritage in 2001 complaining about Bill Clinton's 'abuses' followed by advice for Bush "to use this power confidently"). But I share the concern that executive power is kind of a ratchet; whatever criticisms the Democrats may have of Trump's EO's, they will definitely be looking at them in terms of "how can we use and extend that power when we get back into office," rather than properly reforming and removing those expansive powers, and returning more responsibility to Congress to actually legislate rather than rule by EO.
posted by mittens at 10:57 AM on January 31 [3 favorites]


mittens I mean, I'd take a bit of "when it's our turn we're going to X" pushback too if it was there. It wouldn't be as good as a plan to end Executive power, but it'd be amusing at least.

Becuase based on what Trump has been doing we know a Democratic Presidetnt CAN legalize marijuana nationwide and that's just to start with!
posted by sotonohito at 11:18 AM on January 31 [1 favorite]


Some of these tactics are one-way-only. A Republican president can (apparently) shut off or turn down the spigot of federal funds. But a Democratic president can't just triple the amount of federal money going out the door. Just more easier-to-destroy stuff I guess.
posted by prefpara at 11:24 AM on January 31


prefpara how do we know that?

My preferred way of dealing with this is to get rid of excess Presidential power (and the more I think of it the more I like the idea of a Presidential quadrumvarate and annual election of a new quadvar).

But if we can't do that then we need the Democrats to use that power and so far no one has tested doing good with it
posted by sotonohito at 12:31 PM on January 31 [1 favorite]


There is no US president who would "strip the Presidency of [its] mind boggling power", sotonohito. Instaed they'd all use some fraction of the powers for their term, but imaging they'd use everything, after which some administration worse than Trump takes over, expanding the powers.

If smart, Project 2025 should worm their people into the NSA, CIA, and FBI, giving themselves na eternal strategic advantage. Democrats would not reduce those organizations power either, no mater how obvious the infiltration.

Also r/LeopardsAteMyFace/ has your schadenfreude.
posted by jeffburdges at 1:02 PM on January 31 [2 favorites]


Well, since the other options appear to be:

1) Continuing Caesarism until the President becomes an actual dictator for the next couple hundred years until our nation totally collapses.

or

2) A civil war to replace the governement and implement something better.

I think it'd be a good idea to figure out a third approach even if it's difficult.
posted by sotonohito at 8:00 AM on February 3


But a Democratic president can't just triple the amount of federal money going out the door.

Biden did a lot of that. For example, he increased SNAP benefits by hundreds of billions of dollars without a change in law.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:19 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]


From NPR: Secretary of State Marco Rubio says he is acting director the U.S. Agency for International Development
posted by Dashy at 11:23 AM on February 3


> What are the Democrat's plans for stripping the Presidency of all the mind boggling power it has in the hands of someone like Trump who won't pinkie swear not to abuse it?

Well, the third option would be constitutional amendment but:

- The constitution is already clear on many of the orders Trump signed, with the judge issuing the injunction against one wondering how any lawyer who passed the bar would bring these arguments
- You'd need a two thirds majority of both houses to pass, which seems unlikely
- When the administration ignores the constitution, the courts would have to rule against them
- And then the administration would have to enforce the ruling against... itself. History shows us how poorly that can go
posted by pwnguin at 11:41 AM on February 3


bwnguin At the moment, and I'd dearly love to be proven wrong, I'm pretty sure the MAGA Six will rule in Trump's favor on everything.
posted by sotonohito at 2:37 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]




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