For the first time in history, it's

November 18, 2005 8:31 PM

Tropical Storm Gamma. For the first time in history.
posted by theperfectcrime (42 comments total)

[obligatory] What happened to alpha and beta?
posted by Pretty_Generic at 8:33 PM on November 18, 2005

Ever since the big ones earlier in the year I have bookmarked this small page. It is slightly boggling to imagine the size of some of those storms
posted by edgeways at 8:39 PM on November 18, 2005

Alpha

Beta
posted by edgeways at 8:42 PM on November 18, 2005

Alpha. Beta.
posted by portage at 8:44 PM on November 18, 2005

Alpha. Beta.
posted by brownpau at 8:47 PM on November 18, 2005

Just curious -- does anybody have a handle on many of this year's storms wouldn't have been identified if we were using, say, 1940s technology (no satellites or computers, etc.)
posted by Opposite George at 8:47 PM on November 18, 2005

I assume that the tpc's fpp means that this is the first time we've had this many tropical storms / hurricanes in one year, but his link doesn't say that. Do I win the prize?
posted by alms at 8:51 PM on November 18, 2005

Well... it's also possible that we've had this many tropical storms and hurricanes in a year, but the civilizations that existed at the time didn't record them (or recorded them, but no speakers of their language survive).
posted by bugmuncher at 9:09 PM on November 18, 2005

[NEWSFILTER]

oh and, VIA

Please observe the 14,000 rules we have around here. Otherwise this place will descend into anarchy.
posted by Eideteker at 9:19 PM on November 18, 2005

Ice Station Zebra!
posted by Guy Smiley at 9:33 PM on November 18, 2005

Alpha-Beta.
posted by Malor at 9:39 PM on November 18, 2005

I got beaten in checkers today. First time in history.
posted by justgary at 10:17 PM on November 18, 2005

Pretty_Generic got pwned.
posted by knave at 10:43 PM on November 18, 2005

When are the Thetans coming?
posted by blue_beetle at 11:00 PM on November 18, 2005

Well... it's also possible that we've had this many tropical storms and hurricanes in a year, but the civilizations that existed at the time didn't record them (or recorded them, but no speakers of their language survive). - bugmuncher

That's more-or-less implied by the use of the word 'history' isn't it?
posted by Ritchie at 11:33 PM on November 18, 2005

Uh uh..ok ok, there's no global warming. Nothing odd, stay the course. Wave your hands in the air like you just don't care, lalalalalalalallalalalalalalalallala
posted by elpapacito at 11:52 PM on November 18, 2005

While I don't doubt that there is global warming, the fact that there has been one more hurricane in 2005 than there were in 1969 (and three fewer major hurricanes than in 1950) isn't really a strong case for it.
posted by obfusciatrist at 12:27 AM on November 19, 2005

Just curious -- does anybody have a handle on many of this year's storms wouldn't have been identified if we were using, say, 1940s technology (no satellites or computers, etc.)

The criteria have changed over the years, but modern technology hasn't really given us "more" hurricanes the way improved medical diagnosis might, except in rare cases. It's primarily increased the lead time we have.

The process of identifying tropical storms isn't for counting them, after all, it's for determining which ones will turn into hurricanes, or interfere with shipping, and so forth.

That said, it isn't really appropriate to say that because we've had N named tropical storms in a year, we can directly compare that to a prior year when hurricanes only "counted" if they made landfall.
posted by dhartung at 1:45 AM on November 19, 2005

It isn't so much the number of Hurricanes this year that are unusual, but rather their intensity. With the number of cat 4 or 5 hurricanes doubling since the 70s, it's obvious that the severity of these storms is increasing, as well as their frequency.

Certainly it's well established that average atmospheric temperatures worldwide have been rising, as have sea-surface temperatures. The question still unanswered is if any of these changes are attributable to anthropogenic effects, and if so, just how these changing metrics might influence storm behaviours.

The jury is still out on this, and reputable climatologists soberly note that we can't objectively quantify these influences yet, as we lack sufficient data.
posted by PareidoliaticBoy at 1:51 AM on November 19, 2005

Great link, thanks, edgeways.
posted by nthdegx at 4:15 AM on November 19, 2005

Crap - we're going to the Bahamas over Thanksgiving. Hope Gamma is gone by then.
posted by swift at 4:24 AM on November 19, 2005

Yea, i'm going to Orlando after thanksgiving, hopefully its OK.
posted by SirOmega at 4:54 AM on November 19, 2005

When are the Thetans coming?

Winzorz!!!!!11!one
posted by moonbird at 5:29 AM on November 19, 2005

Yep, that's it for me. I am still trying to recover from 11 days without power from Hurricane Wilma, as well as the days without power after Katrina and some other T.Storm (can't remember which). I have spent nearly a month without power all up this season. My wife looked at me today after seeing the map with Gamma's projected trajectory and went 'Can't we just move, like right now?'. I was here when Andrew hit too, so I think I'm about ready to graduate to other natural disasters to complain about.

I am sick of Florida, and I am getting the hell out of here.

Now, I do feel a bit of guilt saying all this considering what Katrina did after it hit us and went on to Louisiana, and how petty complaining about being without power is, compared to the people that have no homes now and lost everything they had. My thoughts are with them, but still, enough for me. (not that that's all making me move out of here, but a factor nonetheless).
posted by oneiros at 5:38 AM on November 19, 2005

The title of this post is very Monty Python.
posted by Gator at 5:59 AM on November 19, 2005

onieros - remember Hurricane Andrew? After its buzzsaw-on-fingertip job in Florida, it went on to dump tons of rain on and knock out power in south-central Louisiana. I remember people in Hammond who felt much the same for Floridians at the time as you feel for Louisianans now.

If you're the sort to look at unrelated incidents and deem it 'karma', then think of Katrina as karmic balance for Andrew. (Hey, rationalization can be a good thing in tiny doses.)
posted by suckerpunch at 6:57 AM on November 19, 2005

I got pwnd
posted by Pretty_Generic at 7:15 AM on November 19, 2005

It's pretty simple. A warming atmosphere causes the oceans to heat up which causes hurricanes to be more powerful, more of them, and in places they never existed before (south america and off the coast of spain). The trend is world wide in other hurricane basins as well, this is not a "statistical blip".
posted by stbalbach at 7:39 AM on November 19, 2005

Yea, i'm going to Orlando after thanksgiving, hopefully its OK.

I wouldn't worry, in the 35 years it has been open Disney World has only been in the path of two storms and due to be well inland their intensity was much reduced (not that they didn't still do fair damage, though not to Disney World).
posted by obfusciatrist at 7:46 AM on November 19, 2005

Next up, Delta in the delta! Grudge match!
posted by CynicalKnight at 10:18 AM on November 19, 2005

[WorldFilter] Please realize that you're talking about storms that form in a particular location in the Atlantic, in one year. Those storms often affect the United States, and storms that form elsewhere don't, thus to the U.S. media they are the only place that storms could ever exist.

However.

There are actually about 7-8 (maybe more?) major storm-forming locations around the world. The U.S. Navy keeps an eye on them.
posted by jellicle at 11:29 AM on November 19, 2005

Off topicL: Does anyone know... has a category 5 hurricane ever hit land?
posted by muppetboy at 11:48 AM on November 19, 2005

Oh, and is 5 the highest?
posted by muppetboy at 11:48 AM on November 19, 2005

Muppetboy: Check out the site for the National Hurricane Center for all sorts of information about that sort of thing. According to them, only three Cat5 hurricanes have made landfall on the United States, since record-keeping began (yes, 5 is the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale). They are very careful to put that "since record-keeping began" in their notes, since they're aware of the fact that things may (and most likely have) happened before they started keeping detailed records.
posted by Gator at 12:09 PM on November 19, 2005

You mean in the couple billion years it's been since the planet formed, THINGS HAPPENED!? That's crazy talk! ;-)

Thanks for the link.
posted by muppetboy at 12:13 PM on November 19, 2005

Hard to believe it's still that hot down there. F'n freezing this week in Iowas (and last week it was in the 70's. *sigh*).

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a hurricane or tropical storm past november 30th this year.
posted by delmoi at 12:46 PM on November 19, 2005

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a hurricane or tropical storm past november 30th this year.

Agreed -- though it'll be hard for anything major to hit the US or Mexico, given the dropping Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea temps. The Caribbean is still warm, though, which is where November storms typically form (and Gamma is no exception here.)

November storms tend to be odd ones -- the oddest has to be Wrong Way Lenny at the end of the 1999 season. Lenny did far more damage than you'd expect from a storm of its strength -- the problem was Lenny tracked east, not west, and thus, he hit various islands on the west shores -- normally safely away from the direct strike.
posted by eriko at 4:05 PM on November 19, 2005

Just curious -- does anybody have a handle on many of this year's storms wouldn't have been identified if we were using, say, 1940s technology (no satellites or computers, etc.)

none. even when they don't make land, these storms have huge effects on navigation. and there are ships pretty much everywhere.
posted by 3.2.3 at 5:28 PM on November 19, 2005

What happens if, hypothetically, we hit Tropical Storm Zeta? What would we call them then? Alpha One?
posted by Effigy2000 at 9:16 PM on November 19, 2005

What happens if, hypothetically, we hit Tropical Storm Zeta?

We revert to the ancient naming convention known as "Make it up."

Seriously -- the firm lists are a recent phenomenon (do doo de doo doo.) Hurricane Camille was named after forecaster John Hope's daughter. (Weather Channel Junkies -- yes, that John Hope.) Cyclone Catarina was named after the city of St. Catarina, Brazil -- and there were lots of arguments, early on, about naming the storm anything, since the South Atlantic didn't get hurricanes. (They did that year -- 2004.)

Bingo numbers. 2004 was high in number and intensity, and featured a South Atlantic Hurricane, and the ninth most intense hurricane, in terms of pressure, ever recorded. (Ivan.)

2005 hasn't had a South Atlantic Hurricane, but has had, in terms of pressure, *the* most intense hurricane ever recorded in the basin (Wilma) along with #4 (Rita) and #6 (Katarina.) Add in the first tropical storm to ever make landfall -- in Spain and Portugal (Vince.) There have been 28 Tropical Depressions or greater (record), 24 named storms (record), 13 hurricanes (record) and seven major hurricanes (one short of 1950's 8.) No other season had more than one Category 5 storm, this year, we've had three.

Fifteen named storms have made landfall. Two of them, Katarina and Stan, cause more than 1000 deaths.

Wilma was just scary. Just a run of the mill late season storm, that suddenly got serious, and dropped 78mbar (2.20 in/Hg) in ten hours, and extended that to a 90mbar (2.65 in/Hg.) This is astounding enough (the only storm to drop more in that time was Typhoon Forrest in 1983. The fact that this happened in the late Atlantic seasons is scary.

It's a bingo year -- 2004 was odd, 2005 was worse, and we're not done yet.
posted by eriko at 10:09 PM on November 19, 2005

We were on holiday in St Lucia for the last 2 weeks, the Tropical Depression came right over us and I have never seen rain like it. We didn't see the sun for 6 days and the worst landslides in 15 years closed a lot of the roads on the island.

Still it was interesting, different and not work.
posted by hardcode at 6:33 AM on November 20, 2005

Seriously -- the firm lists are a recent phenomenon (do doo de doo doo.) Hurricane Camille was named after forecaster John Hope's daughter

that wikipedia entry still said they had to be alphabetical - looks like the only difference was now we have male named storms. They needed a "C" name for the storm, and he had a daughter named Camille - but lots of the names of storms are named after people; they just have to be in alphabetical order. The problem is, that only gives us room for 21 storms (we skip q, u, x, y & z); the greek alphabet gives us another 24.

This site says they've been alphabetized since 1950. Male names were included starting in 1979.
posted by mdn at 1:50 PM on November 20, 2005