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"We plan to put Beauty to sleep by chemical means, and then we’ll flip a fair coin. If the coin lands Heads, we will awaken Beauty on Monday afternoon and interview her. If it lands Tails, we will awaken her Monday afternoon, interview her, put her back to sleep, and then awaken her again on Tuesday afternoon and interview her again. The (each?) interview is to consist of the one question : what is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed Heads? When awakened (and during the interview) Beauty will not be able to tell which day it is, nor will she remember whether she has been awakened before. She knows about the above details of our experiment. What credence should she state in answer to our question?"

In light of the recent thread on the Monty Hall problem, here's a probability puzzle that's even more mind-bending: the Sleeping Beauty problem. Some people say the answer is 1/2. Some people say the answer is 1/3. Some people say there is no answer. Papers have been written which can't resolve this one.
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'Enemy Contact. Kill 'em, Kill 'em'. The Price of Valor. Invisible Casualties. The Psychological Effects of Combat. The Psychological Consequences of Killing: Perpetration-Induced Traumatic Stress. Soldiers, Self-Defense, and Killing in War - (PDF). Psychological and Psychosocial Consequences of Combat and Deployment with Special Emphasis on the Gulf War. Military Leaders’ Obligation to Justify Killing in War. And, from last year, come The Killer Elite, From Hell to Baghdad - The Killer Elite Part II, and The Battle for Bagdhad - The Killer Elite Part III--Evan Wright's Rolling Stone articles recently published as Generation Kill. They are well worth re-reading in this context.
comment posted at 11:08 AM on Jul-21-04

W.’s Double Binds - Rich Lowry.
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Ordering pizza in a surveillance society. [Flash, via Crooked Timber.]
comment posted at 6:13 PM on Jul-19-04

Brown = Terrorist - Part II With Bush running about the country telling us how much safer we are, it's fun to look at some of the so-called terrorists we're being protected from: "Five Mexican citizens who stole cans of baby formula from store shelves throughout Iowa and sold them to a man of Arab descent for later resale."
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Another touching, sad, chilling account of obesity in America. The story of Anamarie Regino, a 3-year-old who was abnormally large for her age. Anamarie was taken out of her parents' custody because, it was determined, her life was in jeopardy because of her size. This despite a 550 calorie/day diet and obvious signs that "too much food" wasn't an issue.
comment posted at 11:13 AM on Jul-19-04

The UN recently posted a list of the ten stories they wished the world knew more about. One of them is about trying to ensure proper care and equal treatment to persons with disabilities in other countries. Unrelated to the UN, but to the point, this photojournalist's images of preventable blindness in Asia connects the faces of those affected to the issue.
comment posted at 3:26 PM on Jul-15-04

Are spyware & adware on the way out? More and more I'm hearing about companies taking the turn for the better. BOUT TIME! Even the once-accused WeatherBug has taken strong stances and stronger actions against malware, and is called for it. But will it last, has features and views beat the 'ware?
comment posted at 11:39 AM on Jul-15-04

A Farewell to the Corps Colonel Wayne Shaw, USMC, Quantico, Virginia In recent years I've heard many Marines on the occasion of retirements, farewells, promotions and changes of command refer to the "fun" they've had in the Marine Corps. "I loved every day of it and had a lot of fun" has been voiced far too often. Their definition of "fun" must be radically different from mine. Since first signing my name on the dotted line 28 ½ years ago I have had very little fun.
comment posted at 12:23 PM on Jul-14-04

Man buys tatty suitcase for $36...that's actually filled with Beatles memorabila. Believed to be the lost "Mal Evans archive," the suitcase bought at an Australian flea market contained precious photos, concert programs and unreleased recordings. Everything is yet to be authenticated, but if the items are bonafide, this could be THE Antiques Roadshow showpiece to end all showpieces.
comment posted at 11:40 AM on Jul-14-04

Striping Guitars with Eddie Van Halen (in what appears to be his living room). More of his painted and unpainted guitars. Extra guitar geekiness: watch the evolution of Frankenstein.
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"Is [President] Bush a Homo?" Those are Betty's words... not mine. [via tinmanic]
comment posted at 9:25 AM on Jul-13-04

What does blue smell like? A novel theory contends that humans smell the frequency of a molecule, rather than shape (full study, pdf). In fact, there is no evidence to support either theory, leading to the question, how do humans smell? Inspired by bonehead.
comment posted at 2:23 PM on Jul-12-04

Mark Mothersbaugh's Beautiful Mutants, a slideshow of Rorschach-like manipulated images of faces from long ago set to his music, is currently on tour. I'm checking it out to see how his art compares with his music work in DEVO and movie soundtracks -- hopefully it comes close.
comment posted at 11:18 AM on Jul-12-04
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"DeLay is doing everything moral, legal and ethical to increase the Republican majority and advance conservative ideas," says his spokesman, Stuart Roy. Heck, we already know that Tom DeLay loves the children enough to start a charitable fund to help pay for "late-night convention parties, a luxury suite during President Bush's speech at Madison Square Garden and yacht cruises" during the 2004 GOP convention (as well as the children, of course). Now, he's connected (via an email) to Enron, asking them for extra money in order to help fund the already-notorious redistricting in Texas. When will enough be enough?
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Outfoxed, a documentary detailing Fox News's Republican bias, is being shown at house parties organized by MoveOn next Sunday amidst concerns about its extensive use of Fox News footage. Check out the article in today's NYT Mag section or sign up to host a screening at your house. I haven't seen this yet, but the stuff I've read on it makes me think immediately of this film.
comment posted at 10:33 AM on Jul-12-04
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Kerry-Edwards: so much love
comment posted at 6:09 PM on Jul-9-04

A tribute to a lost friend.
comment posted at 7:04 PM on Jul-9-04

Save The Children calls on release of Iraqi children from jails. This apparently in response to recent media reports on the abuse of children in Iraqi prisons. And it's not just Save the Children who is concerned, but UNICEF, Amnesty International, and the Red Cross. Infact, Congress has called for a special briefing tomorrow from the Pentagon on "confidential reports" from the Red Cross on prison conditions in Iraq. The Pentagon is closing the briefing to the public, however, and apparently thinks that even Congress shouldn't know the details of how we treat prisoners.
"It's something of a stretch of policy and procedures to give them to the Congress," Rumsfeld spokesman Larry Di Rita said.
comment posted at 7:14 PM on Jul-9-04

FCC wants radio, TV to keep tapes of shows. Presumably this is to make it easier for the FCC's Enforcement Bureau to levy some of those hefty new fines. Now I know the issue of the FCC fines and the FCC in general has already been discussed here, here, here, and possibly here. But it seems like there's a fifth amendment issue here that's new to this debate. Will forcing broadcasters to keep tapes in effect compel them to give evidence against themselves?
comment posted at 5:47 PM on Jul-8-04

Eastasia plans attacks on Eurasia "Efforts each of you make to be vigilant – such as reporting suspicious items or activities to authorities – do make a difference. Every citizen using their common sense and eyes and ears can support our national effort to stop the terrorists. Thank you for your continued resolve in the face of the ongoing threat of terrorism. We must continue to work together – to ensure that the freedom we just celebrated continues as the hallmark of this great nation." Are you scared yet?
comment posted at 6:34 PM on Jul-8-04
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Firefighters defend $120 million telescope. Obviously forest fires and telescopes (qtvr) don't mix.
comment posted at 6:45 PM on Jul-8-04

The spokesman said its 'Important to reach out to every single supporter' I guess I shouldn't be suprised, and I guess it's not illegal, but I'll try to be bi-partisan here and say this just seems wrong!!
comment posted at 2:39 PM on Jul-2-04

RIP, Marlon Brando.
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