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Early exit polling shows strong Kerry battleground states edge : lots of variables in play, and these numbers do not include early voting. Further, early exit polling has in the past tended to favor Republicans. This election, though, that trend may no longer hold. We'll see. Get out and vote! Vote vote vote! (more inside).
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           This November
  Voters Will Go To The Polls
       And Elect A President
       But More Importantly
       They Will Also Select
        The Supreme Court

 And now, the ultimate reality show

     Supreme Court Survivor

     (courtesy of Michael Bérubé)
comment posted at 8:38 PM on Nov-1-04

John Kerry's Horoscope Shows Strong and Optimistic Election Day For November 2: "First thing this morning, you are made aware of a groundswell of activity that benefits you. This powerful locomotive is unstoppable and likely to outperform everyone’s expectations. Even so, you will experience moments of uncertainty from time to time – but not for long. . ."

and for the other guy:

George Bush's Horoscope Predicts Change, And Acceptance For November 2: "You comfort others, especially this morning, and take the attitude that, no matter what, things will turn out fine. Your apparent acceptance creates comfort, strength and unity among friends and loved ones. Throughout the day, you can feel the future quickly approaching your front door. You anticipate change, travel or even moving, and feel at peace with the prospect. . ."
comment posted at 7:23 PM on Nov-1-04

Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted the results of the past four elections correctly using a system known as The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency.

The Keys predict election results by assessing the performance and strength of the party holding the White House. The thirteen points take into account all the factors that decide elections from the obvious (how the economy is doing) to the more subtle (whether the party in power has achieved major policy change). If eight or more of the keys favour the candidate of the incumbent party, he wins. Any fewer, he loses.

Eighteen months ago Lichtman forecast that Bush would retain the presidency. But the Republican Party now has seven keys turned against it for 2004, one more than the fatal six negative keys.
comment posted at 11:18 AM on Nov-2-04

Redskins lose. An interesting example of the logical fallacy known as Coincidental Correlation, for the last 71 years the Washington Redskins' last home game before Election Day has correlated with the success of the incumbent president. Boy, it's a good thing in sports no one believes in silly statistics...
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Get Ready For WW4 : FOIA document details SSS preparations for a widespread draft to start with a callup of 36,000 doctors and nurses : an in depth analysis with a detailed timeline : "...the SSS is in fact preparing for the real possibility of a Skills, Medical and Combat Draft for 2005. Congress of course must still pass a 1-page trigger resolution reauthorizing current conscription law, but the Selective Service will by early 2005 have geared up the entire draft system and be prepared to register more than 40 million Americans for a new Skills Draft and the Medical Draft....The NY Times on Oct. 19 published a long article on a subcontractor, Widemeyer Communications, that over the summer consulted the SSS on how a Medical Draft could be started up with minimal attention. The SSS said 36,000 doctors and nurses would be taken in the first batch of draftees. Why would Bush need so many? 36,000 is a huge number....Wesley Clark charges in his book Winning Modern Wars, that a senior Pentagon official told him in 2001 that there was a 5-year plan to topple 7 countries" Here's the Seattle PI's take : "Administration's own actions fuel rumors of draft" Here's a Feb. 2003 document (~500k pdf) obtained under the FOIA, on the SSS plans for a widespread draft. (more inside)
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The United States has lost Iraq. "Even Secretary of State Colin Powell, a former general who stays in touch with the Joint Chiefs, has acknowledged [the insurgents winning] privately to friends in recent weeks. The insurgents have effectively created a reign of terror throughout the country, killing thousands, driving Iraqi elites and technocrats into exile and scaring foreigners out."
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Frontline: Rumsfeld's War, a PBS/Washington Post joint documentary that aired earlier this week is now online. It is the inside story of Rumsfeld's battle to assert civil control over the military.
comment posted at 9:26 PM on Oct-30-04

Racially-Based Suppression of the African-American Vote: The Role It May Play in the Upcoming Presidential Election What exactly is racially-based vote suppression? Simply defined, it is the targeting of potential voters, based on their race, in an attempt to suppress the exercise of their right to vote for the candidate of their choice.
comment posted at 9:09 PM on Oct-30-04
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"There there, little voters, Papa Ashcroft and Daddy Bush will sort out those nasty little vote fraud disputes." - Bush Adm. sues to give Ashcroft authority over voting disputes under the HAVA Act. "...Bush administration lawyers argued....that only the Justice Department, and not voters themselves, may sue to enforce the voting rights set out in the Help America Vote Act.....would reverse decades of precedent..... Since the civil rights era of the 1960s, individuals have gone to federal court to enforce their right to vote.....in legal briefs filed in connection with cases in Ohio, Michigan and Florida, the administration's lawyers argue that the new law gives Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft the exclusive power to bring lawsuits to enforce its provisions." I'm reminded of Andrew Card's September 1, 2004 comment "that President Bush views America as a ''10-year-old child" in need of the sort of protection provided by a parent."
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comment posted at 5:19 AM on Oct-31-04

All watched over by machines of loving grace is Adam Greenfield's take on the consequences for designers of ubicomp. Setting moral guidelines seems critical in these early days of technological encroachment-- but how long can decency hold out against the promise of profit? I was forwarded a recent email from the CEO a major bookseller that made it clear that it's possible for them to track everything I do in their stores and online, and thank goodness they choose not to take advantage. But how long will that last? And with homeland security crumbling our civil liberties, article's like Adam's that remind us about our responsibility are even more important than ever.
comment posted at 5:43 AM on Oct-31-04

In the wake of Vietnam, the US military were demoralised and prey to some fairly crazy ideas. They thought they could train 'super soldiers' with psychic powers. In this first extract from his revealing new book, Jon Ronson describes how their aspirations were perverted in the prisons of Iraq. [from The Guardian]
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Nader finally goes off the deep end. Looks like he got his debates after all ... with action figures?!
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A series of books published in the early 1900s in the United States dictated several topics that children should be able to recognize and provide discourse. Among those available for reading online are Birds Every Child Should Know ("Two close relatives there are which, like the poor, are always with us-the crow and the blue jay."), Heroes Every Child Should Know ("To be some kind of a hero has been the ambition of spirited boys from the beginning of history; and if you want to know what the men and women of a country care for most, you must study their heroes."), and Pictures Every Child Should Know ("The true art-lover has a catholic taste, is interested in all forms of art; but he finds beauty where it truly exists and does not allow the nightmare of imagination to mislead him.").
comment posted at 8:08 AM on Oct-29-04

Meet the WallBuilders --an organization that promotes the return of American public life to its religious-based heritage, according to USA Today. And the Congressional Pastor's Briefings may be of interest too: WallBuilders has been privileged to bring ministers from across the nation to Washington, DC, for an intimate briefing session with some of the top Christian Senators and Representatives now serving in Congress. The Members brief pastors on a variety of issues related to Biblical values as well as share their hearts regarding their own faith and its application to public office. ...
Wallbuilders or Mythbuilders provides a debunking of 8 historical fallacies of the group, concluding that:...In that sense, then, the name “Wallbuilders” is correct: the organization is building unnecessary walls of prejudice in an onlooking world, a word desperately needing to hear about the One who has “broken down the middle wall of division”...
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"I have become more and more aware of the Stalinist tactics and mentality of much of the American Right..... Relentless insistence on unity, on the existence of an unprecedented and overwhelming external threat, and on the total moral depravity of political opposition were all integral to Stalinist propaganda, and they are a growing part of conservative rhetoric in the United States today.....[Hateful] rhetoric was the prelude to a terrific acceleration of state murder in the Soviet Union....when I read posts on right-wing websites and blogs such as Free Republic or Little Green Footballs, I am reminded strongly of the rage and rhetoric of the young Communist Party activists in the late 1920s....The drive to sustain the administration's alternative world, and the blind hatred and rage of many of President Bush's supporters, may well have disastrous consequences for America." [ Matthew Lenoe, author of Closer To The Masses. Stalinist Culture,Social Revolution, And Soviet Newpapers. Harvard University Press, 2004 ] An op-ed, by someone who knows a bit about totalitarianism, it reminds me of Metafilters 36201, 32747 24363....
comment posted at 9:52 AM on Oct-28-04