Ukraine war heading into third summer
April 22, 2024 6:32 AM   Subscribe

As Congress has finally passed the Ukraine aid bill, hope is returning to the frontline, where Ukrainian troops are increasingly struggling to hold out against a numerically superior Russian force that also has a lot more ammunition to spend. This post has some status updates and commentary on the war at present.

If and how to best aid Ukraine is being discussed all over the Western world: Air defence and artillery ammunition is desperately needed as Russia is pummelling Ukrainian civilans and infrastructure,but seemingly hard to produce in numbers: On some levels Ukraine has had some successes lately, but also met some critisism: The war is having a deep impact certain to be felt for generations: As attacks on civilans and infrastructure in Ukraine is increasing, there is a great need for aid, and Support Ukraine Now! have ways for you to help.
posted by Harald74 (112 comments total) 37 users marked this as a favorite
 
This is a good post, thank you. I hate giving in to the grar but that CNN article lauding Johnson for doing the bare minimum. Ugh. I suppose it might be useful explaining the stakes to a foreign policy illiterate populace but to compare Johnson to freakin Churchill for doing the bare minimum to save a democratic state by giving billions into the US defense industry. Like. The headline might as well be "Brave GOP speaker passes the don't kick yourself in the balls act, defying the kick us in the balls wing of his party."
posted by Wretch729 at 7:07 AM on April 22 [31 favorites]


In my little corners of the world, the Icelandic government took the unprecedented step of buying arms for Ukraine. Iceland doesn’t have an army, and traditionally has offered non-offensive military aid, for instance by buying medical supplies. This was a bit controversial, but hasn’t been much discussed, at least publicly.

Meanwhile, Finland has absolutely no qualms about arming Ukraine, as to be expected, providinf over two billion euros in military aid in total since the invasion began.

For more about military aid to Ukraine in global terms, the Kiel Institute tracks all that.
posted by Kattullus at 7:19 AM on April 22 [17 favorites]


I know it's the most trivial thing, but my mind is blown that a ship launched by the Russian Imperial Navy under Czar Nicholas II in 1913 was in service until it was hit by a cruise missile last Sunday.

Someone knew how to build to last.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 7:23 AM on April 22 [12 favorites]


as a submarine tender, it was built unique at the time, and its unique capabilities have been increasingly useful as naval war is driven under the surface by air power, satellites, and missile technology.
posted by torokunai at 7:26 AM on April 22 [2 favorites]


I hate giving in to the grar but that CNN article lauding Johnson for doing the bare minimum.

I mean, yes and no on this? On the one hand, by defying the Trumpoid wing of the party (even though Lindsey Graham, curiously enough, subsequently went on TV claiming that Trump should be given credit for the aid passing), Johnson has opened himself up to wide ridicule amongst his base and its pet media outlets, the permanent loss of support by half of that base, the likely loss of his current position of prominence, and rampant death threats.

On the other hand, as the common refrain went in the old Super Chicken cartoon, "You knew the job was dangerous when you took it, Fred."

The rhetoric on the "new right" fringe is getting more incoherent and xenophobic by the day. Moscow Marge, for example, called any humanitarian aid to Gaza "treason" because Hamas is their government and they're holding Americans hostage, then called aid to Israel for the apparent purpose of enabling to further crush Hamas into the rubble "treason" because every dime should've been used instead to build the Berlin Wall on our southern border.

We shook our heads over that poor, deluded man setting himself on fire last week over "Trump and Biden working together to stage a fascist coup," but while that remains a minority view even amongst the major-head-injury camp, even Trump is currently taking fire from ardent America Firsters for not denouncing all foreign aid in extreme terms and thus being part of the Uniparty Swamp after all.

Which would be less painful if they were, let's say, twenty cranks representing a powerless fringe and not, y'know, cranks with veto power over nearly ANYTHING passing the House under current circumstances.
posted by delfin at 8:01 AM on April 22 [5 favorites]


If Ukraine had attacked it as an artifact in a naval museum that was on display but not used in a military context the condemnation would be reasonable. Since Russia was using it as a military vehicle in a war of aggression I don't think it's really fair to say Ukraine should have treated it as a valuable historic artifact.

As for the refineries, how can those possibly NOT be valid military targets?

In a better world we'd see a massive airstrike against all Russian military bases and facilities by the rest of the world to force them to stop.
posted by sotonohito at 8:03 AM on April 22 [19 favorites]


Some fucking Democratic reps are ready to reinstall Johnson in exchange for this vote instead of letting the Republicans flail about looking like dysfunctional morons. Progressive when it suits him Ro Khanna has already preemptively gone on record about being ready to vote for Johnson, just in case you're wondering how fucking stupid Democratic politics has gotten.

There also hasn't been any movement on the MTV even though it was filed a month ago. Moscow Marge keeps talking about going through with it and pressuring Johnson to resign but there was a rumor circulating that a few Republicans in Biden districts threatened her that they were ready to quit Congress if she went through with bringing the vote to the floor, handing the house to the Democratic Party. Given there's 10 Republicans in Biden leaning seats, this seems entirely credible and if correct she has no real way to threaten the speakership other than soundbites.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:30 AM on April 22 [2 favorites]


I generally try to avoid lambasting people for not doing the right thing soon enough, since it rarely does any good, but man, I can't help but think that this could simply have happened six months ago when the momentum was still on Ukraine's side (albeit rapidly waning) instead of now when the momentum is back with the Russians. There was no reason for it to take this long. Instead of being used to strengthen Ukraine's offensive operations, the aid will now need to be used to stop Russian offensives launched in the face of withering Ukrainian stockpiles. Instead of being used to press what was once Ukraine's advantage, the aid will now need to be used to blunt Russia's advantage. Above all, this delay cost lives. Ukrainians-- soldiers and civilians alike-- died because this aid didn't get there in time to prevent Russian attacks. And the US, to all the world, looked like weaklings whose will to back up its allies could easily be outlasted. "Unlikely Churchill" my ass.

That being said... well, at least it happened in the end. This was badly, badly needed, and it will have an immediate and positive effect on the frontlines. I also know it's already having a positive psychological effect for Ukrainians who were beginning to think the west really had just abandoned them. The key now is for the Biden administration to build on this, to work with NATO and European partners to lock in further aid and reopen conversations around Ukraine's post-war NATO and EU aspirations. It was bad enough that this package took so long, the only thing worse would be for Congress (let's be real, Republicans) to dust their hands and go "cool, job done, time to never think about Ukraine again."

Some fucking Democratic reps are ready to reinstall Johnson in exchange for this vote instead of letting the Republicans flail about looking like dysfunctional morons. Progressive when it suits him Ro Khanna has already preemptively gone on record about being ready to vote for Johnson, just in case you're wondering how fucking stupid Democratic politics has gotten.

I mean I get why this is frustrating but I don't really see a better option. They're not gonna make Jeffries Speaker. And Republicans being incompetent and dysfunctional is, astonishingly, baked into the American public's understanding of politics. They literally don't punish the party for being bad at being in government. Remember when McCarthy took about a thousand ballots to get elected, or when Republicans then promptly booted him for no particular reason and then put the country through a Shakespearean drama flailing around to get a new Speaker? None of that changed anybody's minds. No voters, it seems, saw that and thought "wow, these Republicans can't even do the most basic functions of government, I'm going to keep this in mind next time I vote." Somehow we've ended up with a situation where Republicans get to act as if 222 middle schoolers took over the House, but Democrats are expected to be the responsible adults cleaning up after them.

If anything, when Republicans make our government dysfunctional, Americans don't lose faith in Republicans. They lose faith in government. Which is, of course, exactly what Republicans want them to do.
posted by Method Man at 8:44 AM on April 22 [37 favorites]


Good post.
posted by neuron at 9:00 AM on April 22 [2 favorites]


Method Man What specific benefits do the Democrats get, in some form of enforcable agreement, by voting to keep a Christofascist lunatic right winger in power as Speaker of the House?

This is absolutley a question of extorting the absolute maximum that can be extorted in exchange for the absolute minimum we cna give. Either Johnson et al are serious about negotiating a coalition government to exclude the handful of Republicans who are even more batshit insane than Johnson, or they are just treating Democrats like chumps by demanding support in exchange for nothing.

And no "a functional House" is not actually a benefit to anyone if all it does is pump out lunatic fringe Republican crap.

Better no House than a House that spends its days endlessly passing evil bills that must be smacked down.

And if it makes the Republicans look like incompetent fools then that's a bonus! We WANT them to look like the incompetent fools they are. Helping them keep some dignity is counterproductive to the Democratic cause.

If Johnson is willing to make serious policy concessions, pledge to bring some Democratic backed bills up for a vote, and provide some mechanism by which the Democrats can actually FORCE him to do that, then yes the Democrats should strongly consider helping him keep the Speaker position.

Otherwise?

Let Marjorie Greene kick him to the curb, sit back and watch the show while the Republicans flounder, and only toss them the tiniest, least possible amount, of a lifeline if we need to get a critical budget bill or whatever passed and we think we can extort whoever we help get the speakership to bring it to a vote.

But saving Johnson just to be nice and show bipartisan comety and all that crap is a terrible idea.
posted by sotonohito at 9:16 AM on April 22 [6 favorites]


I'm not out here championing the rescue of Mike Johnson if crazy(er) Republicans do decide to force a motion to vacate. Obviously Democrats should demand concessions before being willing, as a party, to bail Johnson out, nobody is saying otherwise. That's why Dems didn't rescue McCarthy when it was his head on the chopping block. He made it clear he would make no concessions in return for Dem support. Dems said, cool, then perish. If Johnson refuses to make concessions, he should get the same treatment, that's obvious. But I'm not about to claim letting the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot yet again will redound to Democrats' political benefit or anything. It won't.

And if it makes the Republicans look like incompetent fools then that's a bonus! We WANT them to look like the incompetent fools they are. Helping them keep some dignity is counterproductive to the Democratic cause.

Yeah but House Republicans have been looking like incompetent fools since they won the majority in 2022 (really for a lot longer than that, but you get my point) and I don't know anybody whose opinion of Republicans or voting behavior has changed as a result. If you're just looking at the politics, it's really not much of a bonus. Actually mainly the opposite, since the effect is simply to make more Americans disengage and lose faith in politics.

And no "a functional House" is not actually a benefit to anyone if all it does is pump out lunatic fringe Republican crap.

A functional House was a benefit just in the last few days to Ukrainians fighting against Russian aggression, so there's that.

But saving Johnson just to be nice and show bipartisan comety and all that crap is a terrible idea.

I agree!
posted by Method Man at 9:30 AM on April 22 [4 favorites]


saving Johnson just to be nice and show bipartisan comety and all that crap is a terrible idea.

But saving Johnson as a quid pro quo to get the goddamn bill passed already is a whole lot better than no Ukraine funding at all.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 9:38 AM on April 22 [7 favorites]


this is fractal good-cop bad-cop shit, I'll give it that
posted by torokunai at 9:58 AM on April 22 [6 favorites]


looking like incompetent fools since they won the majority in 2022 (really for a lot longer than that, but you get my point) and I don't know anybody whose opinion of Republicans or voting behavior has changed as a result.

In fairness, it's hard to say if the current Republican dumpster fire has changed anyone's voting behavior, since nobody's really voting until November. (Yes, it would tell us something if R primary voters dumped some of the worst of the Chaos Caucus, which I don't think they have, mostly, but we won't see a serious answer until November, when we see if a bunch of R's get booted by Dems.)
posted by soundguy99 at 10:24 AM on April 22 [3 favorites]


I was also confused by the article in the Kommuna. I mean, it’s a fascinating historical warship that is an active military vessel in an active war zone. If Putin wanted it preserved, he had a couple of good ways to have that happen. Meanwhile, historical Ukrainian buildings are being damaged and destroyed in the regular….
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:55 AM on April 22 [12 favorites]


here are the final two paragraphs from the linked article on the Ukrainian attack on the Kommuna:

Yes, Kommuna is a precious historical artifact. No, that doesn’t give her special status in a brutal war zone. “Objectively she is a legitimate target,” naval expert H.I. Sutton noted.

Without Kommuna, the surviving Black Sea Fleet subs could sail without support. And if one of the subs has an accident and sinks to the seafloor, there may be no way for rescuers—who are accustomed to staging from Kommuna—to reach the survivors.

I am not sure if the article is lazily or just poorly edited, but from the title to the content it's just not a great article. I think it is interesting to note the Kommuna, to note that it has been in service all this time, to note an undisclosed amount of damage from a Ukrainian strike.. but to characterize this as somehow contributing to criticisms of Ukraine's targeting and war objectives, can anyone point me to anything real? Or at least, attempting to be real?
posted by elkevelvet at 11:09 AM on April 22 [4 favorites]


>if one of the subs has an accident and sinks to the seafloor, there may be no way for rescuers

well, I guess the subs should stay in their bases for the duration then.
posted by torokunai at 11:19 AM on April 22 [15 favorites]


Probably best to take the subs out to deep water and scuttle them. Only way to be sure.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 12:03 PM on April 22 [7 favorites]


Above all, this delay cost lives.

The only thing that's costing lives is the war continuing. Russia's shown it's happy to grind up whoever Ukraine sends to the front for however long it takes for Ukraine to sue for peace.
posted by grigg at 12:03 PM on April 22 [1 favorite]


I wonder if you apply that logic to, say, Gaza?
posted by Justinian at 12:05 PM on April 22 [4 favorites]


Well, that's on the Russians. The delay in aid cost the lives of Ukrainians who have had to fight the Russian invasion without adequate supplies. This war will continue until the Russians decide to end their invasion. They could end it today if they wanted to.

Until then, all we can do is give the Ukrainians the weapons and materiel to fight back.
posted by Reverend John at 12:09 PM on April 22 [8 favorites]


I wonder if you apply that logic to, say, Gaza?

I want both wars to stop. I support armed resistance against Israel because asymmetric guerilla warfare has the potential for success in that situation. It is not possible for Ukraine to beat Russia in an industrial war of attrition.

The delay in aid cost the lives of Ukrainians who have had to fight the Russian invasion without adequate supplies.

They will still lack adequate supplies and adequate manpower after this bill is passed.
posted by grigg at 12:14 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


That just doesn't seem like a coherent ideology but rather a justification for arriving at the conclusion you wanted to reach: armed resistance against Israel = good. armed resistance against Russia = bad.

Do you think any country which appears likely to lose a war has a moral obligation to surrender? I can't imagine that's true and yet.
posted by Justinian at 12:25 PM on April 22 [8 favorites]


The only thing that's costing lives is the war continuing. Russia's shown it's happy to grind up whoever Ukraine sends to the front for however long it takes for Ukraine to sue for peace.

Cool, so let's give up and let Ukraine get steamrolled. At least more people won't die, right? Because, you know, people in Russian-occupied Ukraine are really thriving-- I'd say ask the people in Bucha, except for the several hundred of them who were found butchered after the town was liberated. Or maybe ask the people in Donetsk and Luhansk, where anybody who doesn't toe the state line gets shot in the streets and LGBT people have had to flee because both places have become hellish pits of homophobic violence.

Of course, once Ukraine sues for peace, it doesn't end there. Once that happens, Russia will invade Moldova to protect itself against NATO expansionism, and you'll have to convince the Moldovans to save themselves and sue for peace. Once that's done, Russia will invade Lithuania to protect the Russian-speaking minority there it claims is so oppressed and downtrodden, and you'll have to tell the Lithuanians why it's better that they just roll over rather than risk their lives. Speaking of protecting Russians, Putin keeps talking about that large Russian community in northern Kazakhstan and how they need to be protected, so get ready to tell Kazakhstan all about the virtues of letting Russia dismember their country-- to save their lives, of course. Don't forget about Georgia either-- Putin certainly hasn't, I'm sure he'll be paying the little border European-Asian country another visit a la 2008, except this time you'll be there to explain why it's better that we (and the Georgians) just let him conquer it instead of threatening to fight back. It's just a hop, skip, and a jump from there to Armenia, where Putin has made his displeasure with the government's increasingly independent and pro-democracy poise known-- when he invades Armenia to bring it to heel be sure to remind the Armenians it's better to just give up (there may not be many Armenians left for you to warn, though, if Azerbaijan has its way).

And then-- whoops, the Russian Empire's back, built on the backs of dead colonized peoples and westerners insisting that their countries, the only ones who can do anything to stop the new era of Russian imperialism, should just leave the whole thing alone. This is the logical conclusion of your argument-- that the best way to save Ukrainians is to just... let them be conquered. It's also an argument that erases the will of the Ukrainians themselves. They don't want to be conquered. None of us from former Russian colonies do. And yes, many would rather die than let their countries get crushed under Russia's heel again. Some of these countries spent centuries under Russian domination before finally, finally winning their freedom in the 1990s. They absolutely think that freedom is worth dying for.
posted by Method Man at 12:27 PM on April 22 [57 favorites]


It is not possible for Ukraine to beat Russia in an industrial war of attrition.

Who knows? Russia only has a limited number of fighting men, and if Ukrainians outkill Russians by the factors we've seen for most of the war, it could well happen.

I hate writing that, but this war is Putin's fault. It's Putin's war. Every Russian fighting person tombstone should rightfully be engraved with 𝙱𝙴𝙲𝙰𝚄𝚂𝙴 𝙿𝚄𝚃𝙸𝙽 𝚆𝙸𝙻𝙻𝙴𝙳 𝙸𝚃.
posted by JHarris at 12:34 PM on April 22 [11 favorites]


Cool, so let's give up and let Ukraine get steamrolled.

This is very much a not-good-faith way to begin your comment, designed to kill conversation rather than further discussion.

It is possible to say "the war continuing is why people are dying" and also believe that war is justified. I don't know what this tendency is here on MetaFilter to take and build these imagined arguments, quite lengthy in your case, which aren't even a part of the discussion.

It shows a lack of good faith and grace toward your fellow MeFites, and it needs to happen less often.
posted by hippybear at 12:38 PM on April 22 [6 favorites]


I mean, grigg does seem to be arguing that Ukraine should stop fighting. Not sure what was imagined.
posted by sagc at 12:43 PM on April 22 [15 favorites]


Suing for peace
posted by elkevelvet at 12:53 PM on April 22 [1 favorite]


It is not possible for Ukraine to beat Russia in an industrial war of attrition.

That's not what the Institute for the Study of War thinks.
posted by mazola at 1:03 PM on April 22 [8 favorites]


This is very much a not-good-faith way to begin your comment, designed to kill conversation rather than further discussion.

I've gotten a little tired of extending good faith to people who appear to be, and typically are, arguing that the solution is to simply let Russia reconquer its former colonies, for any number of reasons, even those that seem well-intentioned. This isn't just a conversation about Ukraine: it has massive implications for hundreds of millions of people living across former Russian/Soviet space. For these countries, whether the US and the west support Ukraine against Russian aggression is a matter of sovereignty, life and death. If people don't want to sound like they're implicitly condoning Russian colonial aggression against Ukraine or against other former Russian colonies, then at best they should be real careful about how they choose to approach these conversations.

There's also something very paternalistic about implying that the west knows better than Ukraine how it should resist Russian colonization (within the bounds of international and humanitarian law, of course) and basically saying we should cut off support, like a parent cutting off a child's allowance because they think they're spending it frivolously.

It is possible to say "the war continuing is why people are dying" and also believe that war is justified. I don't know what this tendency is here on MetaFilter to take and build these imagined arguments, quite lengthy in your case, which aren't even a part of the discussion.

I mean, maybe grigg was literally just saying "the war continuing is why people are dying." If that's the case, with all due respect, I don't want to sound rude, but I don't know what the point of saying it was. It seems a little like chipping into a conversation about the gravity of homelessness by saying "people are homeless because they don't have homes." Yes, obviously the war is why people are dying. But I don't believe that was what grigg was saying. I believe grigg was implying that US support for Ukraine's defense is what is prolonging this war, that Ukrainian resistance is pointless, and that the US and the west should stop supplying it. Grigg is welcome to elaborate if that's not what they mean, but I think it's a very fair interpretation of their posts here. Maybe even a charitable one, considering how often this argument parallels with "Ukraine isn't a real country" and other similarly reprehensible viewpoints.
posted by Method Man at 1:04 PM on April 22 [26 favorites]


They will still lack adequate supplies and adequate manpower after this bill is passed.

Tell it to the NVA.

It shows a lack of good faith and grace toward your fellow MeFites, and it needs to happen less often.

Grigg's comment that "The only thing that's costing lives is the war continuing" in response to the idea that Republican delay in aid to Ukraine is just their third comment since joining Metafilter last Wednesday. Their $5 is as green as anyone's, but in the absence of a longer posting history or other context, I don't think its unreasonable to interpret their comment advocating that we abandon Ukraine and allow the Russians to conquer Ukraine and impose "peace" on Russian terms.
posted by Reverend John at 1:05 PM on April 22 [12 favorites]


Accurate but not Actual Headline: "Inevitable Blowback on USA Delayed by a Few More Months"

Also I believe that giving people like Trump or Marjorie Taylor Greene nicknames like "Putin's Puppet" is (primarily) cringe for the name caller and should be avoided so that I don't suffer from embarrassment transfer, but also (secondarily) makes Putin out to be a comic movie level of all powerful Baddie that feeds into the latent anti communist industrial brainwashing our USA culture has been living in since 1917. It gives USian (and maybe some others) people a Bad Guy / Bad Country / Bad Culture to define ourselves against and allow us to feel self righteous and assuage the guilt of being the imperial core. Putin is not an super powerful Cobra Commander style puppet master who has hypnotized or corrupted our homegrown shithead politicians, that's the way they are bc huge numbers of our fellow Americans like them that way. Putin's more like Saddam Hussein (a bad guy, operating a repressive regime, propped up by the west until he wasn't, who couldn't even really pull off invasions of his next door neighbors even with a huge military apparatus) and the threat he poses particularly to the USA but even to Europe is WAY LESS than what our Military Industrial complex and their media toadies would have us believe. Being opposed to sending hundreds of billions of dollars to a country when we could spend that money at home, AND thinking that this war is going from bad to worse (they just don't have enough people) and forcing a diplomatic solution by cutting off money would ultimately save a ton of lives are both legitimate viewpoints that do not make a person a Russian disinformation agent or a Right Wing freak.
posted by youthenrage at 1:10 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


People will point to horrific war crimes like Bucha as evidence that actually Russia is going to murder all Ukrainians but that's hard to take seriously given Bucha was 2 years ago and people are still pointing to it as their only real example of a crime of that magnitude in this war. 

It happened in Irpin and Lyman and Kharkiv and countless other towns all throughout Russian occupied lands. Why are you trying to minimize Russian rape, torture and murder of Ukranians? If you think doing so somehow helps Gaza I don't know what to tell you.
posted by nestor_makhno at 1:11 PM on April 22 [14 favorites]


>forcing a diplomatic solution by cutting off money would ultimately save a ton of lives are both legitimate viewpoints that do not make a person a Russian disinformation agent or a Right Wing freak.

overlaps a lot, tho
posted by torokunai at 1:14 PM on April 22 [7 favorites]


I think the leveling of Mariupol, while not involving human beings as the resulting wreckage, is of equal magnitude. And the destruction of the dam.
posted by hippybear at 1:15 PM on April 22 [6 favorites]


This section from the ISW link (above) is probably worth dropping here:
II. Our Susceptibility

US susceptibility to the Kremlin’s manipulations is not all of Russia’s making. It is also a consequence of America’s inherent traits and blind spots.

Values. The United States values peace, life, American interests, freedom of debate, and is trying to act responsibly with the power it wields. These are virtues, not weaknesses. They set us apart from Russia. Russia nevertheless uses these concepts against us in its way of war, as discussed throughout this paper.[38] The Western way of life also prevents us from grasping the full scale of what Russia is. Russia being mostly content with killing and wounding over 300,000 of its own citizens to conquer a country that did not pose a military threat is a reality unimaginable in a Western country.

Defeatism and the legacy of US wars. America’s past wars are distorting America’s understanding of Russia’s war against Ukraine. US concern about endless wars is a result of its experiences in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. But US debate about the risks of a long war in Ukraine revolves around a profound category error in discussing this war as if the United States were fighting it.[39] The United States is not fighting in Ukraine and should not discuss the costs to the United States as if it were. Ukraine, a US partner, is fighting this war against a US adversary. It is not a US proxy — Ukraine is fighting for its own reasons, not ours. And Ukraine has never asked for American soldiers to fight — only for material and financial support. US psychological scars from previous American conflicts have no place in discussions about what the United States should do vis-a-vis Ukraine.

Misunderstanding of the Russian threat. The United States has learned a lot about Russia’s intent and capabilities. The United States still, however, does not fully grasp the nature of the Russian threat, Russia’s sources of power and weakness, and the Russian way of war – including reflexive control. This knowledge gap is reflected in the prevailing US national security assessment that, while Russia poses the most immediate challenge, China is the bigger long-term threat.[40] This may be a valid assessment of China, but the framework is limiting for three reasons. First, it ignores the nature of the Russian threat to the United States, which goes beyond military power. Second, it ignores the path dependency of the Russian threat to the United States on the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine: the United States will face the greatest threat from Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union if Russia prevails in Ukraine.[41] Finally, it ignores the path dependency of China’s threat to the United States and the future of the anti-US coalition on the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. A Russian victory in Ukraine will empower US adversaries in many ways — the most dangerous of all, perhaps, would be US adversaries learning that the United States can be manipulated into abandoning its interests in a winnable fight.[42]
posted by mazola at 1:16 PM on April 22 [8 favorites]


hippybear: I think the leveling of Mariupol, while not involving human beings as the resulting wreckage, is of equal magnitude.

I understand your meaning, but I just wanted to note that thousands and thousands of people died in the siege of Mariupol. Human Rights Watch released their report on the siege earlier this year and it makes for sobering reading.
posted by Kattullus at 1:32 PM on April 22 [10 favorites]


If anything, when Republicans make our government dysfunctional, Americans don't lose faith in Republicans. They lose faith in government. Which is, of course, exactly what Republicans want them to do.
The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it.

— P. J. O'Rourke
posted by kirkaracha at 1:35 PM on April 22 [3 favorites]


Yeah, I wasn't meaning to discount any human deaths anywhere. The amount of wreckage both human and physical structures from this war is pretty horrific.
posted by hippybear at 1:35 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


The last 6 months of mainstream Western reporting on Ukraine has made it very clear that the military is done.

I don't think this is remotely true. They just passed a new mobilization law that lowers the age of mobilization from 27 to 25 (among other things), which is expected to net several hundred thousand more soldiers. They have plenty of available manpower without "pressganging teenagers". As a nation they're not even close to full mobilization. What they lack is deep stocks of relevant ammunition, and that crisis is over now for the foreseeable future.

If there's a silver lining to the delay, it's that western Europe woke up, imagined a future with a U.S. security umbrella, and committed themselves much more deeply and materially to supporting Ukraine.

There's no basis now for believing the war is unwinnable for Ukraine or likely to result in Ukraine's destruction, such that suing for peace is the only moral option.
posted by fatbird at 1:43 PM on April 22 [9 favorites]


I'm sure a place named something totally innocuous like the institute for the study of war wouldn't have any vested interests, ideological biases or links to companies or people who stand to benefit from MORE WAR would they?!
posted by youthenrage at 1:52 PM on April 22


Also when you’re a country with 1/5 the manpower of your opponent and your primary method of getting people to join the military is to randomly grab them on the way home from the grocery store and throw them into the back of a van - not a promising sign.
posted by youthenrage at 1:54 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


I'm sure a place named something totally innocuous like the institute for the study of war wouldn't have any vested interests, ideological biases or links to companies or people who stand to benefit from MORE WAR would they?!

You could probably look it up yourself: "ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization."
posted by mazola at 1:55 PM on April 22 [7 favorites]


> In those circumstances I would start the peace negotiations.

Let's carry that exercise through. If you were the Ukrainian foreign minister how would you achieve a lasting and durable peace at the negotiating table?
posted by Sauce Trough at 2:03 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


randomly grab them on the way home from the grocery store and throw them into the back of a van - not a promising sign.

How promising is Russia's reliance on recruiting prisoners, mercenaries, marginalized ethnic minorities, and foreigners?
posted by Reverend John at 2:06 PM on April 22 [12 favorites]


I know I saw a quote from Putin or another, that "wherever there are russian speakers, there is russia", gotta be a few in Kansas, maybe placate Putin by giving him Kansas.
posted by sammyo at 2:49 PM on April 22 [5 favorites]


There's a surprisingly large Russian immigrant community in the Inland Northwest. Enough that there are grocery stores and churches and neighborhoods in Spokane. My personal interactions with some of them, which were pretty extensive for a number of years, did not lead me to believe they were here to "be russia". Putin is a bit of an ass, and can be ignored about many topics.
posted by hippybear at 3:08 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


I did look it up and it's board of directors is mostly ex generals, spooky contractors, and private equity vampires. So while the ISW probably doesn't exist to make a profit, I'm sure all its white papers advocate for policies that will enrich the freaks who run the place.
posted by youthenrage at 3:27 PM on April 22 [2 favorites]


Ukraine, equipped with Western weapons and gear, was absolutely winning. Even though the weapons came with significant restrictions, was trickled in, and didn't include some of the top Ukraine requests (Air power, which breaks stalemates on the ground).

Ukraine had several major victories, pushing the Russians back from Kyiv and Kharkiv and Kherson. Providing more weapons much earlier could very well have broken Russian forces, who are unquestionably illegally invading Ukraine. For the second time in a decade, since nobody stopped the 2014 'annexations'.


Sure, Ukraine can surrender. But they are also fighting a largely brilliant war, against a theoretically superior force, who still has more equipment. Zelinskyy was right from the beginning... All they need is enough ammunition. We can supply it for the good of the world, or we can faf around and cry about how Ukraine hasn't won yet.

Give Ukraine weapons = victories.
Don't give them anything or enough = Ukraine struggles.
Trunp wins and cuts every bit of aid to Ukraine? Well, that's a nightmare. Bucha is far from the only human rights violation Russian forces have committed. There's dozens. In this unnecessary war, and the others they inflicted upon the world.
posted by Jacen at 4:00 PM on April 22 [15 favorites]


And for the record, I'm Democrat through and through, hate war because I understand a fraction of the terrible cost it inflicts while enriching some... But ISW has always seemed unbiased and factual to me. I've been relying on their information for most of the war, cross checking things. I do not believe that they are over inflating Ukraine prospects.
posted by Jacen at 4:04 PM on April 22 [4 favorites]


I have no idea about who backs ISW. I do know that, whatever ISW does or does not think, grigg has no basis for being so certain that Ukraine is doomed in the war and therefore should surrender. They may well lose even with our aid but, one, that's not certain and, two, it would seem to be Ukraine's call as to whether the cost is worth it and not ours given that they are the ones paying it.
posted by Justinian at 4:09 PM on April 22 [7 favorites]


Wikipedia has plenty of general information about ISW. I think they probably do quality reporting about conflicts but they do have a general political viewpoint.

I do wonder how the history books would be written differently if we'd chosen to arm Ukraine to the full extent of its requests years ago.
posted by hippybear at 4:13 PM on April 22 [4 favorites]


Speaking only to the US politics aspect of this, I delighted in the fact that the Republicans ended up eating a complete shit sandwich because of Trump. We should all recall that the Democrats were willing to throw in a pretty shit "border security" package in with the Ukraine aid to get it done.

Thanks to Trump blowing up that deal, there is no border bullshit, just the military aid and the TikTok ban. Trump truly is the best negotiator.

As far as the likely upcoming Speaker fight, I can understand the argument that some Democrats are making that it's better to keep Johnson in the post with Democratic votes until the election than it would be to risk the very real possibility of ending up with a Democratic speaker at this late stage. As it is, the clown car is entirely of the Republican's own making. Voters get very confused by the concept that it takes time to turn the ship, so there's a very real risk that being seen to be in charge of the House could backfire.
posted by wierdo at 4:34 PM on April 22 [3 favorites]


It's wild we've been at war with Russia pretty much my entire life, and especially the last decade or so, and republicans are now into some weirdo obsession with us losing the wars.
posted by GoblinHoney at 5:43 PM on April 22 [5 favorites]


happybear I would suggest 20 days in Mariupol. I watched it, then I watched it again.
ISW. I would suggest that each person do their own thinking and that's usually in the links at the bottom,oddly some are 404 but they generally are accurate about 70 to 82% of the time, a lot from main stream news and some interesting accounts from various social media. they published this piece, 'Why you can't be and Iran hawk and a Russian dove.' it's been my belief one the underlying factors for the invasion of Ukraine is for Russia to acquire Ukraine's industrial base. so I concentrated going on 2 years now on Motor Sich. turns out with the reporting that the president of the company was accused of corruption possibly treason. April 18, 2024

I remember yelling quote if this war is dependent on an artillery shells, it's lost unquote. not nice, fairly focused sort of naive. there was no intended effect other than a reflexive underlying current within the political military thinking of the United States concerning this war and that is Europe and our other allies need to step up arms production. it is akin to the tension of Europe towards the United States when the Nazis attacked look at all the hubbub about Lend-Lease. we're beyond Lend-Lease. soon Ukraine will be sporting f-16s... more anti-air give it to to them. the United States can't go around the berating Greece or Spain to give up their stuff it's just not going to happen. and if it does this is the fractures in relationships between allies that Russia and its supporters hope for.
Reverend John brought up the NVA,good point though you have to admit the terrain is a bit different and the suppliers are a little bit different. paranoia of the Republicans, the Crux of immigration which no one really wants to talk about. somehow they think that people trying to find a better way are going to be susceptible to Russian sleeper cells or some such historical nonsense. whatever the f*** Johnson did he pressed the right buttons. perhaps in this case power became applicable rather than partisan.
artillery shells are expensive between a 1 to $2,000 a piece maybe less and Ukraine goes through about 7,000 a day or did. do the math. the war will not be won by artillery alone but it is a big component, air power is going to be key as well as crucial troop replacement.
I wish that European Union could hold a special session to expedite their membership and in the internim, maybe a UN resolution and multinational force will go into Ukraine for peace. I really can't see Russia bombing the United Nations troops but then again it's a mad world.
posted by clavdivs at 6:04 PM on April 22 [3 favorites]


and I'll reassert my naive claim that one of the ways this war to end is for the Russian people to have the general strike. I was exuberant 6 to 8 months into the war that this might happen but Putin has solidified the police state and the Crux is that the crackdown forces more people to tell the mantra in other words the patriotism but the thing about patriotism, if it cannot spread and become infectious to other people to join their cause it gets internalized and has nowhere to go thus continuing to tell and live the lie. something rather like Waiting for Godot meets the Dostoyevskys toothache.
posted by clavdivs at 6:42 PM on April 22 [4 favorites]


Happybear 🐻
posted by supermedusa at 6:59 PM on April 22 [4 favorites]


I have all kinds of fantasies about popular uprisings to end the conflicts. What if the 1.5 million people who have been kettled into that one city in Gaza decided to just themselves find all the Hamas people and hand them over, I could even see them being publicly ripped apart in a drawn and quartered kind of way for the suffering they have inspired to be inflicted upon the inhabitants of Gaza. I don't really condone that kind of public lynching behavior, but...

And Ukraine but now also Syria has turned out to be MUCH more of a shitshow...

I sort of get that we don't want countries playing superhero and going in and "solving things" for other countries, but with Syria and Haiti... and maybe even Gaza... maybe something should be done?

Again, fantasies! I know the ramifications of these kinds of actions would be huge and destabilizing in ways none of us can truly fully fathom. It does just seem like maybe there needs to be a moderation team for the globe.
posted by hippybear at 7:00 PM on April 22 [1 favorite]


happybear I would suggest 20 days in Mariupol.

That's the biggest boost my mood has gotten in years.

I simply could not watch it in my current mental state. I won't bore you with the details but the last thing I need to do is watch an actual documentary about a city being destroyed. I'm lucky to get through episodes of Only Murders In The Building.
posted by hippybear at 7:02 PM on April 22 [5 favorites]


well I get you I drove by someone that got shot the other day. I don't know about fantasies but history is proven that Russian general strikes, bureaucractic/ industry has been effective in regime change. never ever underestimate the Russians whether it's the people, the bureaucracy. I've worked for them my grade school best friends father was Ukrainian history professor I love you but I don't like being chided in the times of other people's War. I'd like to know how they think. we've contained the patriotism even though other countries are now materially supporting the Russian war effort but how can we go after China for supposedly giving them material to fight the war when we're doing the same that's hypocrisy we can't do that and it's all. so. silly isn't it. we know where every bullet is made where every trooper moves where the tank is being gassed up even if we miss it we're still going to find it. could you imagine if the intelligence agencies at least six of random countries opened up their files, say, hey look at this this and this about the complex going around the world the s*** that we don't know about, were left to make assertions applications from what we know and listen to people who are actually over there. that's a great American militaristic characteristic isn't it to be able to complain LOUDLY do we see our European neighbors and partners doing that even here, no they're on the front lines they're fighting the war now. we fought one for f****** 30 years and we did it for time and resources and that's the key time we had to buy enough time to become energy independent what is Russia buying its time for that is the key question.
posted by clavdivs at 7:27 PM on April 22 [1 favorite]


apologies HB, you can chide me anytime you like. long winded but this gets weird from the folks who done did weird.

it's not a movie is it.
Syriana.
posted by clavdivs at 7:43 PM on April 22


None of it's a movie. And Sudan needs to be repeatedly mentioned. We've got three in our faces now. Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan.

Wasn't this supposed to be a better century for humanity?
posted by hippybear at 7:54 PM on April 22


We still have some work to do if we want to catch up with the 20th for awfulness but I believe we can accomplish anything if we believe in ourselves.
posted by Justinian at 11:50 PM on April 22


Ukraine can give up; but also, whoever believes in this, give ME your possessions, money, businesses; taxes on all current and future income, etc. I want it, give it up. Why not? If that's good for Ukraine to kneel to Putin, it's fine for you to do the same to someone else.
posted by UN at 1:10 AM on April 23 [4 favorites]


No, the ISW is not on the same domestic politics “side” as Metafilter. Classic military paleoconservatives; the last vestiges of the party of Reagan. With respect to Russia, and reporting on the war - they consistently deliver the most accurate information available to civilians in the timeframes (~24hours) they work in. They reflexively oppose Putin, who beyond the usual dictator’s disdain for democracy and journalism would happily feed every last LGBT Russian into a woodchipper for the sake of consolidating power via scapegoat. Since Metafilter is collectively opposed to that sort of behavior slightly more than we are opposed to war in general (so far as I can tell), and Ukraine’s desire for self-determination is both understandable and justified, from an international geopolitics perspective ISW very much is on our side.

You can, in short, trust their reporting on the Ukrainian conflict. Just don’t make the mistake of viewing them as political allies: they are politically homeless, razor sharp military analysts and this is of great utility at the moment.

As to the China semi-tangent above: there is only one thing the United States holds sacro-sanct, valued above all else: the international dominance of its currency. China threatens that due to their explosive economic growth and three times larger population. The US can never forgive threats to the greenback, and China cannot possibly stop being such a threat. China realizes this and behaves accordingly: it would be churlish to blame them.

Not even remotely a political expert, just my opinion.
posted by Ryvar at 1:32 AM on April 23 [12 favorites]


Ukraine capitulating is not a question of just swapping out the administration and getting a new currency and otherwise business as usual, as Russia pretty clearly has genocidal intentions. The case for genocide is stated almost daily on Russian state-sponsored media, this article being a good starting point. As a start Ukrainian language, customs, food and traditions are routinely mocked and they are called slurs, all basic dehumanising tactics, while the talking heads are constantly calling for re-education of the population, razing of cities, destruction of culture etc.

A UN commission reported last year that they had found that "for instance, some of the rhetoric transmitted in Russian state and other media may constitute incitement to genocide" but also stated that Russian authorities had committed “a wide range of war crimes”.

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, commissioner for children's rights in Russia, they are "allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute)." Taking children away from a population is genocide, BTW.

So please keep this in mind if you think the most humane way out of this war is for Ukraine to stop fighting.
posted by Harald74 at 1:35 AM on April 23 [17 favorites]


Professor Snyder's substack on how the war ends: How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?

At first, no one could imagine that the Russo-Ukrainian war could begin. And yet it began. And now, no one can imagine how it will end. And yet end it will.

War is ultimately about politics. That Ukraine is winning on the battlefield matters because Ukraine is exerting pressure on Russian politics. Tyrants such as Putin exert a certain fascination, because they give the impression that they can do what they like. This is not true, of course; and their regimes are deceptively brittle. The war ends when Ukrainian military victories alter Russian political realities, a process which I believe has begun.

posted by Harald74 at 1:54 AM on April 23 [5 favorites]


(It's from the end of 2022, btw, before the current slog)
posted by Harald74 at 2:00 AM on April 23


Sergey Radchenko and Samuel Charap wrote an interesting article about the early peace talks between Ukraine and Russia for Foreign Affairs. The main thing that surprises me is that, to my memory, the talks were clearly over after the Bucha and Irpin massacres came to light, but they seem to have kept going for a couple of weeks afterwards. I think Radchenko and Charap overestimate how close the two parties were to a settlement, but it’s still interesting to see where Russia and Ukraine saw possible avenues to negotiation in March and April of 2022.
posted by Kattullus at 3:52 AM on April 23


So how much of the 61 billion will end up being stolen this time?
posted by drstrangelove at 3:54 AM on April 23


So how much of the 61 billion will end up being stolen this time?

JFC. It's not a check for $61 billion with Ukraine on the payee line. It's purchasing arms from US suppliers and getting domestic production lines of materiel back up and running. Just about every dollar is basically going to US industry and US personnel. If anything it's a giant US middle class stimulus package while simultaneously being the Arsenal of Democracy once more.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:56 AM on April 23 [30 favorites]


Huh. I don't want to go all "ZOMG Russian disinformation agents infiltrating Metafilter!" but... wow.

Two people popping out of the woodwork to tell us that the most sensible, leftist/liberal, sane, progressive thingg would be for Ukraine to surrender to Russia in such close proximity is pretty damn weird and unusual given the tone of all the other talk about Putin's war of imperial aggression.
posted by sotonohito at 6:59 AM on April 23 [17 favorites]


So how much of the 61 billion will end up being stolen this time?

every once in a while some MeFite leaves a comment of such ignominy that I will forever judge them based on one lousy throwaway line. this is one of those times
posted by elkevelvet at 7:29 AM on April 23 [19 favorites]


All signs point to Ukrainian aid being better accounted for than any other military spending in the US. 8 million of the package is earmarked oversight. The Pentagon itself has never passed an audit, so that might not be a high bar to clear. But there is no evidence of any of the funds or weapons making their way onto the black market, in two years of people looking really hard for it.
posted by Harald74 at 8:22 AM on April 23 [11 favorites]


well it's an odd talking point to focus on, that is for sure
posted by elkevelvet at 8:50 AM on April 23


Meanwhile forces from the "Center" group took half of Ocheretyne (Rob Lee on twitter, DeepStateMAP). Syrsky "disbanded" the 67th Mechanized Brigade (Pravy Sektor far-right radical volunteer unit) due to:
One of the factors revealed by the audit was issues within the brigade. The leadership allegedly separated the soldiers from the Right Sector and those who were transferred from other parts during the recent replenishment (they were referred to as "pixels", in reference to the pattern on the Ukrainian military uniform). The attitude toward the "pixels" was even worse; they were the first to be sent into combat, and their lack of experience made them lose territory (source: Ukrainska Pravda).
About half the gains from Ukraine's failed counteroffensive from last year have been reversed around Robotyne and the Russians haven't even started their expected spring/summer campaign. I saw videos of RAF doing unimpeded close air support over Chasiv Yar. There are tons of rumors and subtle changes.

Also: Ukraine suspends consular services for military-age men in draft push (Reuters):
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a statement that he had ordered measures to be taken to restore what he described as fair treatment for men of mobilisation age.

"How it looks like now: a man of conscription age went abroad, showed his state that he does not care about its survival, and then comes and wants to receive services from this state," he said on X.
"It does not work this way. Our country is at war."
posted by kmt at 8:52 AM on April 23 [3 favorites]


Two people popping out of the woodwork to tell us that the most sensible, leftist/liberal, sane, progressive thingg would be for Ukraine to surrender to Russia in such close proximity is pretty damn weird and unusual given the tone of all the other talk about Putin's war of imperial aggression.

I wish I could say I found it unusual but this has a bad habit of happening pretty much any time this conversation comes up in generally left-of-center spaces: someone, sometimes a few someones, will inevitably come in with an argument that eerily parallels Russian disinformation of some kind. Maybe it's "Ukraine is doomed so helping them is actually just prolonging the war." Maybe it's "Ukraine is a cesspool of Nazis and corruption/not a real country." Maybe it's "America actually started this by expanding NATO/being behind the Maidan Revolution/'creating' Putin/etc." But it's always something.

Every time I see it, I feel the need to remind people: if your "anti-imperialism/anti-colonialism" only kicks in when it's the United States or its allies doing imperialism/colonialism and then mysteriously disappears when it's Russia/China/insert perceived rival of the US here, you aren't actually anti-imperialist or anti-colonialist.
posted by Method Man at 8:54 AM on April 23 [20 favorites]


Sorry for the X link, but BBC's correspondent in Moscow has a roundup of Russian media today, and they are really not happy with Mike Johnson.

A similar roundup from CEPA: Putin’s Propagandists Rage Against the Republican ‘Betrayal’
posted by Harald74 at 9:59 AM on April 23 [8 favorites]


Well those Russians don't seem to think the aid is being stolen by corrupt Ukrainians.
posted by mazola at 11:23 AM on April 23 [2 favorites]


So Burns didn’t go to Ukraine to tell them to stop stealing so much money?
posted by drstrangelove at 12:16 PM on April 23 [1 favorite]


Amazing how Lefties have developed such a taste for war.
posted by drstrangelove at 12:17 PM on April 23 [1 favorite]



So how much of the 61 billion will end up being stolen this time?

Well guess what? You can check
here

The funding for Ukraine is overseen by a giant number of experienced auditors. It has 10 times the oversight of US aid going to Israel, for example. So by all means go allay your fears and report back here on what you find.
posted by nestor_makhno at 12:17 PM on April 23 [6 favorites]


Amazing how Lefties have developed such a taste for war.

I find it amazing that Lefties like you are arguing to allow an authoritarian dictator to commit genocide on his neighbors.
posted by nestor_makhno at 12:20 PM on April 23 [16 favorites]


Amazing how Lefties have developed such a taste for war.

This is snark, but there's a genuine change going on for some lefties here. All my life, every war was, at best, dubious, and at worst, an obvious imperialist effort by the side notionally representing me. I was very sceptical any war could be so morally lopsided.

Then Ukraine in 2022 happened, and I can only imagine this is what it felt like to be on the side of the Allies in WW2, with an unambiguously just cause. That doesn't excuse every tactic or action by the allies, and there's certainly moral atrocities for which the allies are responsible. But in general, there's just no question in my mind that the angels are on the side of the Ukranians and we should be supporting them to the utmost.

I haven't re-evaluated earlier wars and found them less problematic. I'm not interested in the war porn littering social media. I haven't developed a taste for war. I just feel like, for the first time, there's an obviously right side to a conflict, and I'm invested in its outcome.
posted by fatbird at 12:26 PM on April 23 [19 favorites]


Amazing how Lefties have developed such a taste for war.

Amazing when genocide is completely acceptable to some.
posted by grubi at 12:29 PM on April 23 [7 favorites]


Amazing how Lefties have developed such a taste for war.

Bolsheviks seem to believe that if one side doesn't bother fighting the other side won't either. Sadly, when they were so busy reading the theory they didn't seem to come across how Trotsky's "no war, no peace" went against imperial aggressors. Hint: There's a reason why the Russian capital is Moscow and not the historical one of St. Petersburg.

Every good anti-fascist should be cheering on the complete and utter annihilation of the fascists that are the Russian Armed Forces.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:59 PM on April 23 [16 favorites]


Amazing how Lefties have developed such a taste for war.

I'm the fourth fifth person chiming in on this clueless statement now. But wow. You don't even have your political axis right. Left/right is not inherently pro/anti war. The left worldwide has been responsible for plenty of wars.

Wars tend to have two parties, but only one is at fault, and in this case that party is not Ukraine.
posted by JHarris at 1:04 PM on April 23 [9 favorites]


If Russia stopped fighting, the war would end. If Ukraine stopped fighting, Ukraine would end. Too many of the weird "so much for the peaceful left amirite?" takes ignore that basic fact.
posted by Justinian at 1:10 PM on April 23 [22 favorites]


maybe they're not seeing the big board.
posted by clavdivs at 1:12 PM on April 23 [2 favorites]


Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was detained earlier today on corruption charges.
posted by Harald74 at 1:15 PM on April 23 [1 favorite]


Two interlocking pieces on underreported aspects of this wretched war:

1) Coverage of the war is changing, but it too often misses the mark in communicating complexity (Postsocialism):
Even as we move well into the third year of war in Ukraine, the media sphere, dependent as it is on the economy of attention seeking, is still pretty narrowly focused. I can read millions of works a week penned about military technology, grand strategy, geopolitics or even tactics, and much of it is good, informative and interesting. Yet, at least in English, I can read relatively little on the actual details of things like military mobilization in Ukraine and Russia. Or, for that matter, analytical summary of how the war affects the structure of employment, the relationship between war production and the rest of the economy, and logistics within the two countries. The fact that I know by name and even by sight the few people writing consistently well on these topics should itself be a cause for concern.
[...]
What exercised me though, and not only me, but more than one Ukrainian researcher, was the impression that only now can the media start ‘discovering’ stories for their readership like widespread draft avoidance in Ukraine and the gross human rights violations by the Ukrainian state in press-ganging. Once again, its unfair to pick on this one point in an article. The fact is, however, so much coverage is really not interested in the rights and opinions of Ukrainians, the social dynamic in the country. Which is a pity because attending to it might tell us more about the prospects for Ukraine withstanding Russian aggression than paying attention to prime ministers doing photoshoots with Zelensky sitting in the cockpit of a F-16 (this is Danish political snark).
2) How Ukraine War Is Stretching Russian Workers to Their Limits (Moscow Times):
The war effort is eating up an increasing amount of state spending. Now that Russia is entering uncharted territory by printing money to fund the war, inflation is back with a vengeance and is most acutely felt in the devalued salaries of ordinary people. At the start of the war, inflation shot up by an estimated 20%. In 2023, some said the actual rate, because of devaluation, was more like 60%. What this means for the average worker, even those in favored occupations, is a progressive erosion of their disposable income — even after accounting for efforts to switch to Chinese imports and domestically produced goods.

This is far from the military Keynsianism that was supposed to trickle down into general consumption and services. On the contrary, as analyst Nick Trickett showed, the Russian economy is very brittle, and shocks from the war lead to bottlenecks, halts in production due to faulty equipment and accidents. Trickett calculates that average incomes are still lower in real terms than in 2013.

For traditional blue-collar workers in manufacturing, living standards are noticeably deteriorating. As one worker told me, wage rises are “like a dog chasing its tail” – the tail being the cost of living.
posted by kmt at 2:12 PM on April 23 [6 favorites]


from the military Keynsianism

since war labor is just going to ends that are not wealth-accruing, economically Putin'd be better off just paying the war-workers the printed rubles to stay home, PPP-loan style.

Keynesian spending is (arguably) good to inject money into dying local economies to get them spinning again (aka 'pump-priming') to hook up suppressed wealth consumers to wealth suppliers with (otherwise) excess capacity.

This is not that!
posted by torokunai at 9:07 PM on April 23 [2 favorites]


The European disinformation payment scandal uncovered by Czechia continues. Allegedly over 500,000 Euro was paid out by Russian agents to a German politician, who complains in a recording that part of a 20,000 Euro cash bribe was delivered in notes which he can not use at gas stations or shops, since they don't accept €200 notes.
posted by UN at 9:38 PM on April 23 [4 favorites]


Clausewitz:
"War actually takes place more for the defensive than for the conqueror, for invasion only calls forth resistance, and it is not until there is resistance that there is war. A conqueror is always a lover of peace (as Buonaparte always asserted of himself); he would like to make his entry into our state unopposed; in order to prevent this, we must choose war
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:05 AM on April 24 [15 favorites]


Apparently, there already was a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles delivered to Ukraine:
The Biden administration last month secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for the first time in the two-year war — and Kyiv has already used the weapon twice to strike deep behind Russian lines.

In March, the U.S. quietly approved the transfer of a number of Army Tactical Missile Systems with a range of nearly 200 miles, said a senior Biden administration official and two U.S. officials, allowing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces to put at risk more Russian targets inside Ukrainian sovereign territory.

The administration will include additional long-range ATACMS in a new $1 billion package of military aid President Joe Biden approved on Wednesday, one of the U.S. officials said.
posted by Harald74 at 11:14 PM on April 24 [2 favorites]


Retired Australian general Mick Ryan explains on his Substack why longer-ranged ATACMS are an important asset:
The new ATACMs are an important new capability for the Ukrainians. It enhances their capacity for operational strike and complicates ground and air defence operations for the Russians.

But, like all weapons, the new, longer range ATACMS are no silver bullet. They will be an important component in Ukraine’s operational strike capability but will need to be used judiciously to ensure their best effect and to slow Russian adaptation to them.

While the Russians may eventually adapt to the impact of these weapons, as they have shown in the wake of new weapons being introduced, they are an important capability for Ukraine.

posted by Harald74 at 11:26 PM on April 24 [1 favorite]


Hell, let's end this war. Give Ukraine a bunch of Tomahawk cruise missiles and let them take the fight to the Kremlin.
posted by mikelieman at 4:30 AM on April 25 [1 favorite]


I don't know what this means, but it seems escalatory: AP: Belarus claims it prevented drone attacks from Lithuania. Vilnius rejects the allegations

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — The head of the top security agency in Belarus claimed Thursday that the country has prevented attempted drone strikes from Lithuania that targeted the capital, Minsk, and surrounding areas.

Lithuania’s military and National Crisis Management Center strongly denied the claim by Ivan Tertel, head of the Belarusian Committee for State Security (KGB).

Tertel told a session of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly that “the KGB, in cooperation with colleagues from other structures, has recently carried out a number of acute security measures, which made it possible to prevent attacks by combat drones from the territory of Lithuania on objects in Minsk and its suburbs.”

He did not present evidence for the claim or give any details. He also said that “radicals” in Lithuania and Poland are producing drones to attack Belarus.
posted by Harald74 at 7:18 AM on April 25


It's sort of an open secret/conspiracy theory that some drones hitting Russia are coming from third countries. The Pskov airbase attack last year allegedly came from Estonia, some very deep strikes into Russia probably came from Kazakhstan, and some came from inside Russia. If you check out the drones used and their possible range, this is quite logical.

The question is: why come forward now, who is the audience, what is the purpose of these statements? (I really don't know, these are my genuine questions).

There are a lot of western and western accessible ammunition plants having sudden explosions and fires. Everyone (rightly) suspects Russian sabotage but pays lip service to lax standards due to an inexperienced workforce and the pressures of the ramp-up in production. I guess there's nothing to gain from statements on this topic at this point.

Hitting Dzhankoi with ATACMS some weeks ago was more escalatory in my opinion, but then again - nothing happened.
posted by kmt at 8:16 AM on April 25 [1 favorite]


well they did arrest those two crackpots in Germany. as far as I can tell from both plants or at least the Scranton plant it didn't do any significant damage and do not halt production for more than a day or so. it was sabotage it was pretty bad sabotage.
posted by clavdivs at 3:22 PM on April 25


It's sort of an open secret/conspiracy theory that some drones hitting Russia are coming from third countries. The Pskov airbase attack last year allegedly came from Estonia, some very deep strikes into Russia probably came from Kazakhstan, and some came from inside Russia.

I haven't heard this before — from my readings, Ukraine has the weapons with the range to hit these targets; I've also seen speculation that some of these attacks came from within Russia and were done by agents or Russians themselves.

I have a hard time imagining Estonia launching an attack against Russia. For political reasons it would jeopardize a lot of what they're working for. Likewise, if Ukraine covertly launched drones from Estonia, they'd put one of their most vocal allies in a difficult position.
posted by UN at 1:06 AM on April 27 [3 favorites]


Russian increasing use of chemical weapons should get more coverage. Here's a month old article from The Telegraph:
Russian troops are carrying out a systematic campaign of illegal chemical attacks against Ukrainian soldiers, according to a Telegraph investigation.

The Telegraph spoke to a number of Ukrainian soldiers deployed in positions across the front line who detailed how their positions have been coming under near daily attacks from small drones, mainly dropping tear gas but also other chemicals.

The use of such gas, which is known as CS and commonly used by riot police, is banned during wartime under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
posted by Harald74 at 11:08 PM on May 1 [2 favorites]


BTW, there's a huge amount of protests going on in Georgia (the country) over the proposed Russian-style "foreign agents" legislation. Puts one in mind of the run-up to the Orange Revolution, and many protesters are bringing Ukrainian and EU flags along their own into the streets. Someone could probably do a good FPP on this.
posted by Harald74 at 11:16 PM on May 1 [4 favorites]


And out of Chechnya, there are reports that strongman Ramzan Kadyrov is terminally ill with pancreatic necrosis, prompting concerns in Moscow on how to handle a succession. The Kadyrov clan is backed by the Russian state after two wars in a row in the republic, with a majority wanting to secede. But how tight is their grip on power? Especially these days with the Russian army deeply committed in Ukraine?
posted by Harald74 at 11:25 PM on May 1 [2 favorites]


The US State Department yesterday accused the Russians of violating the chemical weapons ban by using the choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces:
WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday accused Russia of violating the international chemical weapons ban by deploying the choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops and using riot control agents "as a method of warfare" in Ukraine.

"The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident and is probably driven by Russian forces' desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield," the State Department said in a statement.
Here's the emergency response card for the agent:
Adverse health effects due to severe exposure:
Profound inflammation of the lower respiratory tract, with potentially fatal accumulation of fluid in the lungs (pulmonary edema).
posted by Harald74 at 11:33 PM on May 1


Note that right this second the pigs in California are using CS gas on American citizens protesting at UCLA.

Just as they did against American citizens participating in the BLM protests.

America's expression of outraged shock and horror that the Russians would use, gasp, CS gas, against Ukranian soldiers rings hollow.
posted by sotonohito at 6:36 AM on May 2


I get the point you are making, but chloropicrin isn't CS gas.
posted by Justinian at 10:02 AM on May 2


(The Russians have used CS gas, just not only CS gas).
posted by Justinian at 10:03 AM on May 2


Do the Russians use rubber bullets?


"Ukraine will start operating F-16s after Orthodox Easter on May 5, Kyiv has said, as the country contends with devastating Russian bombardment and the long wait for the Western-made fighter jets.

"We are waiting," Ukrainian air force spokesperson Ilya Yevlash said, adding the jets will be taking to the skies over the war-torn country "after Easter," according to remarks reported by Ukrainian media on Wednesday
posted by clavdivs at 3:18 PM on May 2


It's... kind of weird to publicly announce when your equipment will put in an appearance? I don't think that sort of thing can be taken at face value. If it is to their military advantage for that to be the truth, they could be telling the truth. But if it's to their military advantage to lie about it, they are lying about it.
posted by Justinian at 5:20 PM on May 2


sure. but I'll bet you a dollar they'll be flying sorties by the third week of May or when Russia does thier little counter attack which most likely will fail.
posted by clavdivs at 7:01 PM on May 2


Then there will be stories of Ukrainian success and then some saber rattling as a distraction from those failures from Moscow, maybe from Putin directly. Whatever the distraction is will be total and obvious bullshit but it's for an internal audience.

I will happily welcome that cycle back as historically it's been part of major Ukrainian success and advances.
posted by VTX at 2:36 PM on May 3


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