Nato vows to respond if Finland-Estonia pipeline damage is deliberate
October 11, 2023 10:23 PM Subscribe
cool cool cool
posted by Going To Maine at 10:40 PM on October 11, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by Going To Maine at 10:40 PM on October 11, 2023 [14 favorites]
The circumstantial evidence is not great, but let's hope Russia wasn't stupid enough to step over the line.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:13 PM on October 11, 2023
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:13 PM on October 11, 2023
fortunately there is not a "Global Thermonuclear War" on my bingo card so we're OK no doubt.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:25 PM on October 11, 2023
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:25 PM on October 11, 2023
Finland apparently did not decommission their underwater sensor network after the cold war, but kept on modernising and logging activity. I would not be surprised if they can provide evidence strong enough to persuade Nato. So an Article 4 conference might be coming.
posted by Harald74 at 12:58 AM on October 12, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:58 AM on October 12, 2023 [5 favorites]
From what I gather from Finnish media, so far there’s not a lot known about what happened. Russian sabotage is one of the likelier possibilities, but the weather’s been sucky here on the south coast of Finland, and so a ship dropping an anchor where it shouldn’t, either because of confusion, navigational error, or panic, is also fairly thinkable. Finland hasn’t raised its military readiness (there were some news reports saying that, but that was a mixture of the new prime minister getting the jargon wrong and a translation error) and isn’t treating this as an attack. If proof is found that this was sabotage, that will change things, but not to the extent that Finland will consider itself under attack.
posted by Kattullus at 1:46 AM on October 12, 2023 [22 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 1:46 AM on October 12, 2023 [22 favorites]
let's hope Russia wasn't stupid enough to step over the line.
um... Russia is not known for line-respecting. I guess Ukraine isn't in NATO, so invading them in 2014 and then escalating that invasion last year doesn't count as crossing the same exact line. And Russia rightly calculated the UK and USA wouldn't directly enforce the 1994 security agreement with Ukraine.
Anyway, dragging an anchor across a gas pipeline as deliberate sabotage would be just plausibly deniable enough to give NATO the chance to look the other way. Interesting we're signalling that we might not. I'm a little confused by the linked story; was this damage to the pipeline recent? This article suggests so, just 4 days ago on October 8.
posted by Nelson at 2:17 AM on October 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
um... Russia is not known for line-respecting. I guess Ukraine isn't in NATO, so invading them in 2014 and then escalating that invasion last year doesn't count as crossing the same exact line. And Russia rightly calculated the UK and USA wouldn't directly enforce the 1994 security agreement with Ukraine.
Anyway, dragging an anchor across a gas pipeline as deliberate sabotage would be just plausibly deniable enough to give NATO the chance to look the other way. Interesting we're signalling that we might not. I'm a little confused by the linked story; was this damage to the pipeline recent? This article suggests so, just 4 days ago on October 8.
posted by Nelson at 2:17 AM on October 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
Russia is not known for line-respecting
So far, they have not yet picked an open fight with NATO countries. Anyways, thanks Kattullus.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:50 AM on October 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
So far, they have not yet picked an open fight with NATO countries. Anyways, thanks Kattullus.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:50 AM on October 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
They have most likely blown up ammunition depots in Czechia and Bulgaria to disrupt supply to Ukraine, though. And used nerve agents in the UK. They're quite committed to pushing boundaries.
posted by Harald74 at 3:46 AM on October 12, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:46 AM on October 12, 2023 [14 favorites]
I would construe Putin's threat to repudiate the test ban treaty as a preemptive strike meant to mute the response to this incident.
posted by jamjam at 4:16 AM on October 12, 2023
posted by jamjam at 4:16 AM on October 12, 2023
And used nerve agents in the UK. They're quite committed to pushing boundaries.
Multiple times and with collateral damage if you include radiation poisoning as well! And those are just the cases that were made public. If the UK were not so thoroughly compromised by Russian oligarch wealth I think there would have been much more serious sanctions a decade ago but they were and so here we are. Billionaires should not exist for all kinds of reasons and national security is also a good one.
posted by srboisvert at 5:38 AM on October 12, 2023 [17 favorites]
Multiple times and with collateral damage if you include radiation poisoning as well! And those are just the cases that were made public. If the UK were not so thoroughly compromised by Russian oligarch wealth I think there would have been much more serious sanctions a decade ago but they were and so here we are. Billionaires should not exist for all kinds of reasons and national security is also a good one.
posted by srboisvert at 5:38 AM on October 12, 2023 [17 favorites]
I hope it does turn out to be a dumb accident, with some boat just dropping anchor in the wrong spot. If it is deliberate, it just ratchets up the quiet conflict that much more.
If the UK were not so thoroughly compromised by Russian oligarch wealth I think there would have been much more serious sanctions a decade ago but they were and so here we are.
There are a whole set of provocations, the UK killings among them, where I wish a more concerted response had happened. Instead, because things tended to have a veneer of deniability, or were carefully just short of crossing a major line, it was just allowed to happen and thereby making the next provocation easier.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:08 AM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
If the UK were not so thoroughly compromised by Russian oligarch wealth I think there would have been much more serious sanctions a decade ago but they were and so here we are.
There are a whole set of provocations, the UK killings among them, where I wish a more concerted response had happened. Instead, because things tended to have a veneer of deniability, or were carefully just short of crossing a major line, it was just allowed to happen and thereby making the next provocation easier.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:08 AM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
They've been slicing the salami for a long time now.
posted by Harald74 at 6:22 AM on October 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 6:22 AM on October 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
They've been slicing the salami for a long time now.
I have no idea what this means but I love the phrase.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:30 AM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
I have no idea what this means but I love the phrase.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:30 AM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
I have no idea what this means but I love the phrase.
Per wikipedia.
posted by busted_crayons at 6:47 AM on October 12, 2023 [19 favorites]
Per wikipedia.
posted by busted_crayons at 6:47 AM on October 12, 2023 [19 favorites]
...with collateral damage ... If the UK were not so thoroughly compromised
Well, in fairness, it's not like those people were Eton boys. I mean, it's not like they actually mattered!
posted by aramaic at 6:50 AM on October 12, 2023
Well, in fairness, it's not like those people were Eton boys. I mean, it's not like they actually mattered!
posted by aramaic at 6:50 AM on October 12, 2023
Per wikipedia.
I just learned something new. Thank you!
posted by Dip Flash at 6:54 AM on October 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
I just learned something new. Thank you!
posted by Dip Flash at 6:54 AM on October 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
It is interesting because there have been numerous Russian provocations since March 2022 but NATO has appeared to be deliberately downplaying them. Anders Nielsen, a Danish military analyst, discussed it on youtube. The basic argument is that Russia is deliberately operating below a threshold where action would be obviously justifiable because they want to provoke an over-reaction - NATO has been ignoring the provocations because it does not benefit them strategically to respond.
But this incident, despite appearing to follow the same playbook as the previous few, is getting official acknowledgement. Maybe the calculus for NATO has changed. Or maybe this will just stop being talked about and be dropped, like the other such events.
posted by Ktm1 at 7:44 AM on October 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
But this incident, despite appearing to follow the same playbook as the previous few, is getting official acknowledgement. Maybe the calculus for NATO has changed. Or maybe this will just stop being talked about and be dropped, like the other such events.
posted by Ktm1 at 7:44 AM on October 12, 2023 [4 favorites]
I took a glance at Finnish media again, and with the admittedly large caveat that my Finnish language skills are rudimentary, it seems that Finnish authorities have determined that the damage to the pipeline can’t have been caused by divers or a submarine. The most likely culprit is a Russian four-decade-old ore and oil carrier, SGV Flot, which was stationary near the pipeline. The shipping company says that the ship was merely sheltering from the storm, and while that is plausible, some feel it chose an odd spot to do that. Finnish investigators are saying it will take at least a week, if not two, to gather evidence before they can draw any conclusions.
posted by Kattullus at 7:53 AM on October 12, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 7:53 AM on October 12, 2023 [9 favorites]
(this is unrelated to the news but adjacent)
"The Burning Sea" is a pretty great Norwegian disaster movie set in the region and dealing with a catastrophe involving oil infrastructure in the sea. Part of a trilogy with The Quake and The Wave, also very good. I've found the movie setting to be a useful visual reference point in my mind when reading news about this pipeline damage.
posted by msbrauer at 9:32 AM on October 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
"The Burning Sea" is a pretty great Norwegian disaster movie set in the region and dealing with a catastrophe involving oil infrastructure in the sea. Part of a trilogy with The Quake and The Wave, also very good. I've found the movie setting to be a useful visual reference point in my mind when reading news about this pipeline damage.
posted by msbrauer at 9:32 AM on October 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
Sadly there are things like Gulf of Tolkin or the 1981 pipeline explosion so part of the world will opt to not believe whatever is put forward as the truth.
posted by rough ashlar at 10:22 AM on October 12, 2023
posted by rough ashlar at 10:22 AM on October 12, 2023
The Russian ship Sibiryakov is a research vessel that can do a hydrographic survey of the sea floor. Which is the sort of info that Russia would need to then conduct a sabotage operation. Sibiryakov was tracked recently operating near the Baltic connector.
The Sibiryakov was also operating, with it's beacons turned off, around the Nord stream pipelines before those where also intentionally damaged.
Perhaps Russia made these moves now as NATO is steadily improving its 'Seabed Warfare' capabilities with increasing its navel presence around undersea infrastructure. The UK also just launched Proteus. Both the NORD and the Baltic connector are next to Russia - the risk to other critical systems is well known, especially to the UK and I expect this to be an ongoing concern.
posted by zenon at 11:22 AM on October 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Sibiryakov was also operating, with it's beacons turned off, around the Nord stream pipelines before those where also intentionally damaged.
Perhaps Russia made these moves now as NATO is steadily improving its 'Seabed Warfare' capabilities with increasing its navel presence around undersea infrastructure. The UK also just launched Proteus. Both the NORD and the Baltic connector are next to Russia - the risk to other critical systems is well known, especially to the UK and I expect this to be an ongoing concern.
posted by zenon at 11:22 AM on October 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
Barring the discovery of very reliable evidence that this was part of a wider effort by Russia to attack the infrastructure of NATO allies as a prelude to the launch of a war, the alliance's "determined" response will be extremely measured, likely an expression of concern or condemnation and at most an increase of joint NATO maritime surveillance activities in the Gulf of Finland.
It helps that the two Allies most directly affected, Estonia and Finland, are the antithesis of excitable, and share a very realistic attitude toward Russia. They are not going to be pushing the Alliance to over-react.
A NATO Article IV consultation, if one happens, is precisely what it says: a consultation. The Article has been invoked a total of seven times in NATO's history (all in the current century, and six times in the past decade or so), and has never triggered any military action.
Imposing a naval blockade is an act of war and so is off the table. More broadly, NATO is not looking to start a war with Russia (pace, Russian MFA bobbleheads and their echo-chamber). For his part, Putin would have to be even stupider than he seems to drift into a shoot-out with NATO in such a lazy manner.
While my personal take is that Russia may well have had something to do with the damage, the Kremlin's motivation is most likely to be a familiar one: to scare some Westerners into thinking that we're on the brink of a catastrophic war--something Putin likes to do with irritating frequency, q.v. his regular not-so-subtle reminders to the world that he has a very, very large...nuclear arsenal.
posted by senor biggles at 12:16 PM on October 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
It helps that the two Allies most directly affected, Estonia and Finland, are the antithesis of excitable, and share a very realistic attitude toward Russia. They are not going to be pushing the Alliance to over-react.
A NATO Article IV consultation, if one happens, is precisely what it says: a consultation. The Article has been invoked a total of seven times in NATO's history (all in the current century, and six times in the past decade or so), and has never triggered any military action.
Imposing a naval blockade is an act of war and so is off the table. More broadly, NATO is not looking to start a war with Russia (pace, Russian MFA bobbleheads and their echo-chamber). For his part, Putin would have to be even stupider than he seems to drift into a shoot-out with NATO in such a lazy manner.
While my personal take is that Russia may well have had something to do with the damage, the Kremlin's motivation is most likely to be a familiar one: to scare some Westerners into thinking that we're on the brink of a catastrophic war--something Putin likes to do with irritating frequency, q.v. his regular not-so-subtle reminders to the world that he has a very, very large...nuclear arsenal.
posted by senor biggles at 12:16 PM on October 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
I have Red Line by Geordie Kieffer playing over and over in my head this week with everything going on.
Lose your cool
Baby, I'll lose mine
You draw the red line
I'll see you on the other side
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:18 PM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
Lose your cool
Baby, I'll lose mine
You draw the red line
I'll see you on the other side
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:18 PM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
the Kremlin's motivation is most likely to be a familiar one: to scare some Westerners into thinking that we're on the brink of a catastrophic war-
Peter Zeihan has this general bent:
Various EU members need the energy to run their economies. If the pipeline stops working then the hydrocarbons can't get to those economies and that will wreck them.
Russia will have a production collapse due to Haliburton et al buggering off.
The parties that don't benefit is those EU members. Russia can't sorrta sell the production.
And Peter is all about the reshoring to the US.
My twist - If Russia is having a collapse of production but could sell production via a working pipeline the collapse doesn't look good for Russia. But if the pipeline is broke then Russia doesn't need to admit the collapse. If those EU nations suffer from a hard line jackleg US economic POV - that would seem to benefit the US economy. Dead pipelines could be considered a benefit by both parties.
The end consumers of the pipeline will suffer. Sadly. And that suffering benefits others. Sadly.
posted by rough ashlar at 1:23 PM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
Peter Zeihan has this general bent:
Various EU members need the energy to run their economies. If the pipeline stops working then the hydrocarbons can't get to those economies and that will wreck them.
Russia will have a production collapse due to Haliburton et al buggering off.
The parties that don't benefit is those EU members. Russia can't sorrta sell the production.
And Peter is all about the reshoring to the US.
My twist - If Russia is having a collapse of production but could sell production via a working pipeline the collapse doesn't look good for Russia. But if the pipeline is broke then Russia doesn't need to admit the collapse. If those EU nations suffer from a hard line jackleg US economic POV - that would seem to benefit the US economy. Dead pipelines could be considered a benefit by both parties.
The end consumers of the pipeline will suffer. Sadly. And that suffering benefits others. Sadly.
posted by rough ashlar at 1:23 PM on October 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
Thats a dark mountain forest for sure - the whole story is dark mountain.
posted by specialk420 at 9:23 PM on October 12, 2023
posted by specialk420 at 9:23 PM on October 12, 2023
I wonder what the correct response is to salami tactics of this kind. We don't know if Putin cut this particular slice of salami but we do know that he is a frequent salami cutter. It looks like Putin will never retreat in Ukraine and that Ukraine is unlikely to push the Russians out without a massive infusion of sophisticated heavy weaponry. The end game of that war could be a stalemate in which Putin is constantly yanking Ukraine and the rest of the world's chain. So sliced salami will likely be on the menu for a while. Surely there is an effective countermeasure, apart from waiting for Putin to age out of power, but I don't know it.
posted by SnowRottie at 11:48 PM on October 12, 2023
posted by SnowRottie at 11:48 PM on October 12, 2023
in which Putin is constantly yanking Ukraine and the rest of the world's chain
Russian citizens and elites also getting heavily yanked in this scenario. It seems like Russian people are good at suffering and good at accepting propagande, but there has to be a tipping point. It happened in 1917 after all. I do not think Putin gets to have "brutal meatgrinder failed war" forever.
posted by Meatbomb at 3:10 AM on October 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
Russian citizens and elites also getting heavily yanked in this scenario. It seems like Russian people are good at suffering and good at accepting propagande, but there has to be a tipping point. It happened in 1917 after all. I do not think Putin gets to have "brutal meatgrinder failed war" forever.
posted by Meatbomb at 3:10 AM on October 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yes, agreed. Ordinary Russians will suffer as much as Ukrainians, only the world won't sympathize with them. When this is over, Russia will be full of traumatized and humiliated people. And they will as much care as the Ukrainians if we want to secure world peace.
posted by SnowRottie at 9:57 AM on October 14, 2023
posted by SnowRottie at 9:57 AM on October 14, 2023
Ordinary Russians will suffer as much as Ukrainians
Ordinary Russians aren't having their schools and apartment buildings bombed.
posted by Nelson at 10:58 AM on October 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ordinary Russians aren't having their schools and apartment buildings bombed.
posted by Nelson at 10:58 AM on October 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sweden reports damage to Baltic Sea cable with Estonia
Sweden on Tuesday said that a Baltic Sea telecom cable running to Estonia was partially damaged around the same time as a Finnish-Estonian pipeline and cable earlier this month.posted by Nelson at 10:17 AM on October 18, 2023
Sweden's Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said it was unclear what caused the damage to the undersea cable that connects Sweden and Estonia.
"It is not a total cable break. There is a partial damage on this cable," Bohlin said. "We cannot assess what caused the damage. But what we can say is that this damage has happened at a similar time and in physical proximity ... to the damage that was previously reported to a gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland, and a telecommunications cable between Estonia and Finland."
The Finnish police have released a statement, The investigation is now focused on the role of the vessel Newnew Polar Bear. Excerpt:
The police have established in the criminal investigation that the movements of the vessel Newnew Polar Bear flying the flag of Hong Kong coincide with the time and place of the gas pipeline damage. For this reason, the investigation is now focused on the role of the said vessel.posted by Kattullus at 1:43 PM on October 20, 2023
[…]
Yesterday the National Bureau of Investigation stated it had completed the crime scene investigation into the gas pipeline damage. The analysis of the collected samples is underway in the National Bureau of Investigation Forensic Laboratory.
– The investigation has confirmed that the damage has been caused by an external mechanical force, and based on current knowledge there is no reason to believe the damage has been caused by an explosion, Lohi states.
– A recently formed huge clump of soil containing probably an extremely heavy object has been found in the seabed. We investigate now what the object is and if it is connected to the damage of the pipeline, Lohi says.
The object lies deep down in clay seabed and no conclusion can be reached thus far of its nature. The police and the authorities having cooperated and assisted in the criminal investigation continue the scene investigation whenever weather and sea conditions allow.
– Attempts will be made to lift the object from the sea for technical examination, Lohi states.
Finnish investigators suspect Chinese vessel's anchor caused Balticconnector pipeline damage. Excerpt:
Maritime traffic data showed that the vessel crossed the Balticconnector pipeline at the very moment a loud noise was registered in the area of the pipeline.posted by Kattullus at 10:38 AM on October 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
A photograph of the NewNew Polar Bear vessel docked in the port of St Petersburg appeared on the Russian Port News website on 9 October — one day after the damage to the pipeline occurred. The photograph began to arouse suspicion soon afterwards because the ship's leftside anchor chains were evident on the quay side, even though the vessel was moored to the quay.
A preliminary probe of the seabed by Finnish investigators led to the discovery of a large object, which once it was raised to the surface was revealed to be a ship's anchor.
The next stage of the investigation will seek to determine whether the damage to the pipeline was intentional or not, the NBI said at the Tuesday evening press conference.
YLE News: Finnish investigators confirm recovered anchor belongs to Chinese vessel. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 12:43 AM on November 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Technical examinations of an anchor recovered from the seabed between Finland and Estonia have confirmed that it belongs to a Hong Kong flagged Chinese vessel.Investigators are treating this as a case of criminal negligence, essentially, and not intentional.
The NewNew Polar Bear ship is known to have been moving in the region when damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline was first detected.
"At this stage, it can be said that the anchor that was recovered from the sea on 24 October fits the anchor of the NewNew Polar Bear in terms of certain technical specifications. The same type of paint has also been found on the anchor as on the damaged gas pipeline," Detective Inspector Risto Lohi of Finland's National Bureau of Investigation stated.
posted by Kattullus at 12:43 AM on November 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
The same Chinese ship is apparently also responsible for damaging the fiber optic cables a few hours earlier and later:
posted by jamjam at 4:19 PM on November 11, 2023
TRAIL OF DAMAGEIf all this damage is a significant net gain for the Russian cause in Europe, I would say that a declaration of unintentionality is vastly premature.
In total, three Baltic telecoms cables and one pipeline were damaged in the space of less than nine hours.
Data from shipping intelligence firm MarineTraffic, reviewed by Reuters, showed that the NewNew Polar Bear passed over a Swedish-Estonian telecoms cable at 1513 GMT, then over the Russian cable at around 2020 GMT, the Balticconnector at 2220 GMT and a Finland-Estonia telecoms line at 2349 GMT.
Rostelecom said the damage to its cable was recorded at 2030 GMT.
As far back as Oct. 13, President Vladimir Putin dismissed as "complete rubbish" suggestions that Russia might have been to blame for the Balticconnector damage and floated the possibility that a ship's anchor could have caused it.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin referred further questions to the Communications Ministry, which did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Finnish police announced on Oct. 24 that they had found a ship's anchor near the broken gas pipeline. They have not concluded whether the damage was caused accidentally or deliberately.
Operator Gasgrid has said the pipeline could be out of commission until April or longer.
Rostelecom said a specialised vessel had started repairs on the fiber optic cable on Sunday and that the work was expected to take 10 days, depending on weather conditions.
The cable runs from St Petersburg to Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. The company said users had not been affected because data was transmitted via terrestrial routes and backup satellite channels.
posted by jamjam at 4:19 PM on November 11, 2023
Back to the the underwater pipe destruction last year, a major new story today: Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack
posted by Nelson at 6:05 PM on November 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
Some of those who described Chervinsky’s participation in the Nord Stream attack defended the veteran intelligence officer as acting in Ukraine’s best interests. They argued that bombing the pipelines helped to keep Russia from filling its coffers from natural gas sales and deprived Putin of a means to use the flow of natural gas for political leverage.It's joint Washington Post / Der Spiegel reporting and I hope they were very careful about sourcing. I have no reason to doubt this story but everything about all this is so hinky.
posted by Nelson at 6:05 PM on November 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
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I expect a naval blockade.
posted by zenon at 10:39 PM on October 11, 2023 [1 favorite]