The virus is rewriting our imaginations

May 3, 2020 8:51 AM

"I was still shocked by how much had changed, and how quickly." After climbing out of the Grand Canyon, Kim Stanley Robinson reflects on how culture is and may be changing under the impact of COVID-19, from charismatic mega-ideas to societies within societies.

(Previously) (SLNewYorker)

posted by doctornemo (29 comments total)

I worry that this is a particularly bad development for efforts to mitigate climate change. We've cut emissions hugely, and it wouldn't be enough even if we kept it up for years. People on the whole will be anxious to put the pandemic lifestyle behind them, and politicians will be eager to pander to that desire; who can imagine asking people even more, when the threat of death is hardly enough to get them to behave as it is?

It's interesting to see an article by KSR on this when I have just been reading one of his books to escape. I won't say which one it is to avoid spoiling it, but it's a novel of ideas--one idea, mainly, which is that interstellar human colonization is not only impossible but ethically wrong. This becomes clear when the main characters are themselves infected with an alien plague--not an exciting one, not a creator of zombies or worms, just plain fever and struggling sickness and death, just like COVID. It wasn't something I would have chosen to read about at these times, but I am glad I did. It reaffirms the necessity of choosing Earth, of having an Earth to choose.
posted by Countess Elena at 9:28 AM on May 3, 2020 [13 favorites]

It's been interesting seeing this piece rip around the internet, particularly in this tweet "The New Yorker giving it slightly straighter than usual" with the excerpt:

Margaret Thatcher said that “there is no such thing as society,” and Ronald Reagan said that “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” These stupid slogans marked the turn away from the postwar period of reconstruction and underpin much of the bullshit of the past forty years.

Of course, KSR has been on the science and climate and socialism beat for decades now – it's just the rest of the world that's catching up.
posted by adrianhon at 10:24 AM on May 3, 2020 [27 favorites]

We are societies made of societies; there are nothing but societies.

Amen.
posted by monotreme at 11:10 AM on May 3, 2020 [16 favorites]

Regarding what climate change will bring,

It’s not that the coronavirus is a dress rehearsal—it’s too deadly for that. But it is the first of many calamities that will likely unfold throughout this century. Now, when they come, we’ll be familiar with how they feel.

It's difficult to describe the hollow horror I feel. We aren't getting back to normal, this isn't the new normal, this is the first of the new normals.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:28 AM on May 3, 2020 [43 favorites]

We've cut emissions hugely, and it wouldn't be enough even if we kept it up for years.

This is the wrong way to think about this- yes, we need to cut emissions far more than has happened by temporarily reducing travel now because of the pandemic. But those changes can happen as we're investing in the recovery and necessary infrastructure replacement. It's not as much about lifestyle changes as massive changes in larger systems, e.g. continuing to move to renewable energy on the electric grid.
posted by pinochiette at 11:38 AM on May 3, 2020 [30 favorites]

I’m trying to not be cynical or negative. But man. It’s so hard. Evidence is contrary to positive outcomes.

Here we are during an unprecedented in modern times crisis under thoroughly incompetent and corrupt leadership and the political base of our president is tripling down on the insane policies and violent ideologies that exacerbated the crisis. And they have all the power. I do not see that changing. I see that concentrating.

And all I see my “team” doing is infighting.

I just don’t see a better society developing here. I see more fractures. More distrust. More corruption. More despair. More poverty. The societies with in societies can not hope to accomplish what needs to be done.
posted by Everyone Expects The Spanish Influenza at 12:28 PM on May 3, 2020 [22 favorites]

Nothing like the couple that took a month down the river isolated for most of March:

"He goes, OK ,have you had any contact with the outside world?" said Mason. "And we all just kind of shrugged and said no, not really. And he goes, 'OK' and kind of rolls his eyes and sighs. 'The world is going crazy, you've got a lot to hear. The stock market crashed, toilet paper is out everywhere, Italy closed its borders, the NBA isn't doing games anymore.' And it was like, whoa!"

At first the group of friends thought the man might be pulling their leg, but soon reality set in.

"I remember just being so shocked to hear one of our friends say, 'Oh, my girlfriend says we need to pick up toilet paper, beans and rice before we get back to Durango,'" said Kate. "And it just felt like a completely unreal situation, like something from a movie. We expected the world to be normal when we returned."

posted by sammyo at 12:30 PM on May 3, 2020 [13 favorites]

We are societies made of societies; there are nothing but societies.

Yeah, there was a slogan here in the Netherlands several years ago: De maatschappij, dat ben JIJ. Which translates to: Society, that is YOU.

Which I think speaks for itself, and is something I think we Americans need to be reminded of (well, I think most people on this site are aware, but you know). Living here I've learned that you can have nice things. And I mean nice things that everyone can enjoy regardless of their income and wealth. Beautiful parks with exercise and playground equipment, road systems that work for all users, public transport that is convenient to use, public buildings that are clean and welcoming, and public servants that are happy and helpful, and the security to know if you get sick you'll be cared for and not have to risk becoming homeless. And the tool to make that happen is government. And while you do have to hold it to account, you also have to believe in it and fund it.

Oh, and maybe have a 20-party system instead of a 2-party system so that success as a politician depends on how well you work with others and form coalitions, not how well you shut it all down.
posted by antinomia at 12:40 PM on May 3, 2020 [35 favorites]

I love all of Robinson's books. I suspect I agree with him about nearly everything. I'm a big fan of fundamentally reorganizing society and overturning existing governments, religions, and social structures. But, man, that's a rambling pile of incoherent nonsense. I feel like I've made a mistake when deciding who to sit next to on the bus and am looking around for an excuse to move across the aisle.

Imagine a heat wave hot enough to kill anyone not in an air-conditioned space.

Go home and sleep it off, KSR. You're not helping. You have in the past. I've no doubt you will in the future. We need you. We need you sober.

Or, is this actually parody that I'm just too dumb to notice? I hope that's true, even if it's embarrassing for me personally.
posted by eotvos at 12:42 PM on May 3, 2020 [4 favorites]

And all I see my “team” doing is infighting.

I just don’t see a better society developing here. I see more fractures. More distrust. More corruption. More despair.

Trust feels key. Progressives of many stripes may have some meta-introspection to do here about our tendencies to fuel this. At least, that's how I've been feeling after some difficult conversations.

Being able to identify problematic elements in a system alongside an idealism which can envision something better are key to improving the world.

It's not too hard to let this accidentally turn on itself to the point where something better is crippled or cannibalized by the identification-of-problems tendency before it can arrive. Or, if we keep that together, but face opposition stalling momentum from the outside, attack within first because that's where the lines of communication are rather than keeping focused on the outside front.

I don't know exactly what to do about it, but I'm starting to realize I need to ask the question "how can I cultivate trust" as often as I ask "how can I articulate my insights into systems", maybe more.
posted by wildblueyonder at 1:09 PM on May 3, 2020 [4 favorites]

eotvos, can you say more about why that line in particular that you pulled out comes across as incoherent nonsense? If you are not physically adapted to living in hot weather and your buildings are not well designed for hot weather, heat kills (or causes other ailments to kill by adding stress to the body).
posted by kokaku at 1:23 PM on May 3, 2020 [9 favorites]

Go home and sleep it off, KSR. You're not helping. You have in the past. I've no doubt you will in the future. We need you. We need you sober.

This, at least seasonally, is looking far from theoretical in parts of South Asia even now.

I hate to say it, but he's being perfectly sober.
posted by ryanshepard at 1:37 PM on May 3, 2020 [28 favorites]

I’m trying to not be cynical or negative. But man. It’s so hard.

Some of this must come from your expectations?

What I expected in February-ish was that the US was going to issue some recommendations about washing your hands a lot or maybe wear a mask, but that things were otherwise going to continue as normal (until they just couldn't). It was *unthinkable* to me that the US government would be willing to impose more than trivial pain on businesses. I had thought that sometime around now we'd be seeing some pathetic actions being taken as hospitals everywhere across the US were overflowing, all too little and too late, and we'd end up losing three or four million people from covid and from being unable to get medical care for other stuff.

But... here we are. The US, even a US led by Trump and McConnell, put a stake through the economy. We're literally and directly spending trillions of dollars to try to save a few million people. Here we are in a world where even Donald Fucking Trump and Mitch McFuckingConnell are willing to spend millions of dollars each to try to save a bunch of nobodies they don't give a shit about.

We're still not doing enough in so many ways and oh god for even just competent horrible Republicans instead of this shitshow but I can't tell you how astonished I am at this basic, baseline statement of what we're doing. Even in the face of those jackass Republican governors trying to open shit up, I can't tell you how surprised I am.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:41 PM on May 3, 2020 [33 favorites]

The 2003 European heat wave led to the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540. France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. Peer-reviewed analysis places the European death toll at more than 70,000.

Coulda been worse! It wasn’t even that hot 🥵! Where does KSR get his ideas 😜

The June 2019 European heat wave was a period of unusually hot weather affecting southwestern to central Europe, starting in late June and resulting in the hottest June ever recorded in Europe. It was caused by high pressure and winds from the Sahara Desert affecting large parts of the continent, according to meteorologists. It resulted in record-breaking temperatures for the month of June at many locations. France experienced temperatures in excess of 45 °C (113 °F) for the first time in recorded history. A national all-time record high temperature of 46.0 °C (114.8 °F) occurred on 28 June in Vérargues.

Hopefully we flattened the heatwave curve, whew, hopefully it’s all down hill from here 😂
posted by durandal at 1:41 PM on May 3, 2020 [10 favorites]

Lovely article, and all the <3 for KSR, but the amount of optimism and faith in science that he displays is certainly not represented in the spaces I've been (U.S.) since this started. People are trying desperately to get back to "normal," and that's also reflected in the comments of many of my friends and colleagues. Most of them are ostensibly science-respecting, sensible people, typically well educated, and they're trying to figure out how they can get an illicit haircut, or whatever.

It’s a new feeling, this alienation and solidarity at once. It’s the reality of the social; it’s seeing the tangible existence of a society of strangers, all of whom depend on one another to survive. It’s as if the reality of citizenship has smacked us in the face.


Even at the grocery store near met that appears safest (most masks, etc.) this is right now not in evidence. I think it will take many, many more deaths for this kind of shift to occur.
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:45 PM on May 3, 2020 [2 favorites]

Imagine a heat wave hot enough to kill anyone not in an air-conditioned space.
...
Go home and sleep it off, KSR. You're not helping. You have in the past.

You're scoffing at the notion that there will be places, very likely in our lifetime, where for weeks to months on end the wet bulb temperature will be over 90F each day? (For those following along at home, a sustained wet bulb temperature over 95F is considered to be almost universally fatal even to fit and healthy people, because our perspiration will not adequately cool us.)

These places I mentioned, that have hundreds of millions of people living there, like India, Iran, and Bangladesh?

Seems to me that KSR has a better bead on what's coming than you do.
posted by tclark at 1:45 PM on May 3, 2020 [27 favorites]

But... here we are. The US, even a US led by Trump and McConnell, put a stake through the economy. We're literally and directly spending trillions of dollars to try to save a few million people.

The stake in the economy happened because the market tanked long before Trump declared a single federal action - it tanked in reaction to what was clearly and unmistakably an unprepared and incompetent leader.

What responses to the pandemic that were competent were governors and in spite of the Trump Administration. Which left Trump with little choice but to follow until he could build a counter narrative and propaganda mechanism.

Those trillions? 90% of that money didn’t go to workers or small businesses. It went to banks and big companies who were coincidentally big GOP donors. Over 60% of people who applied for unemployment benefits in February had yet to receive them in March. Trump’s March to reconfigure the federal bench has accelerated.

The nations monied elite are now fully committed to sacrificing thousands of workers without acquiescing to single progressive labor demand.

I’m sorry. I see nothing in how this nation’s power center responded that has given me the slightest hope.

All the good responses have been from those of us with no power to sustain them.
posted by Everyone Expects The Spanish Influenza at 1:56 PM on May 3, 2020 [35 favorites]

One of the overall lessons I hope we learn most is that it should be society before economy.
posted by blue shadows at 3:48 PM on May 3, 2020 [3 favorites]

We've cut emissions hugely

Actually, not as much you might think. Global aviation is an important source of emissions, but it is dwarfed by power consumption - which of course has not really gone down at all. This article has some good info on it.
posted by smoke at 5:09 PM on May 3, 2020 [9 favorites]

We've cut emissions hugely, and it wouldn't be enough even if we kept it up for years.

A comparison of two different projections of total atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the end of 2020 is really a poor choice of graph to convey this, though - should have gone with a direct comparison of the projected increase before and after COVID, or a comparison between 2020 and 2019 total CO2. As-is it's easy to misread it as showing the total concentration going down this year, and even when you get that it isn't, it doesn't provide any intuitive context for how bad the slightly diminished increase still is.
posted by atoxyl at 5:13 PM on May 3, 2020

From Left Coast Right Watch on Twitter, Friday: Alright LCRW readers, you voted and I’m on my way to Sacramento to cover this fuckin’ rally. I’ve got a face mask for my allergies and the longest lens I own with me. Let’s see how it goes!
posted by Lexica at 7:46 PM on May 3, 2020 [1 favorite]

Re: heatwaves: Australia has had heatwaves strong enough to kill people in cities that are otherwise livable for a couple of years now, if you need changes to happen to white people in rich countries before they count as real.
posted by Merus at 9:30 PM on May 3, 2020 [10 favorites]

We've cut emissions hugely

We've perturbed many high-carbon reserves and set them in motion to release all their carbon. For large areas of Earth where say an arctic soil carbon is 30kg/m² Arctic Carbon Count, most of that will go to the atmosphere, no matter what we do now. It works just like investment really.

I did a public talk last year on the need to protect all of life, through heat events (and other 21st C realities). It is a horrible experience searching for heat-event effects on humans and wildlife - increasingly common. Even here we're getting hot days that are way more serious than before, and it's not just heat but drastically low humidity - it sucks the water out of anything alive.

This is unpleasant stuff and KSR is a prophet. Post-Covid (and even before) it will be/is critical to keep pushing back against people who hate Earth / love money - they are a death cult.
posted by unearthed at 9:34 PM on May 3, 2020 [5 favorites]

The federal US government did fuck all. It was state Govenors that shut our shit down. The Feds bailed out corporations, their cronies, and gave everyone a pittance payment, while proposing nonsense cures, and stealing PPE from states.
posted by Windopaene at 10:12 PM on May 3, 2020 [20 favorites]

KSR has certainly thought through the ramifications of climate change and adaptation, and terraforming. I wonder why I don't hear more about the simultaneous need for economic revival and for massive green energy implementations? It is oversimplifying, but is there a way to restore livelihoods by paying people to retool our energy supply? Amazon is hiring thousands (perhaps in problematic ways) but how about hiring those out of work now to install massive amounts of solar and wind. I for one would not mind working on installing solar panels should my present employment falter in the coming economic climate.

To put it bluntly, one problem with the Green New Deal was that not enough people felt the need for the New Deal part of it. That might have changed. I know it is not politically easy---in fact it might be that libertarians and republicans have to be the ones to suggest the the government employ people to build those panels and turbines.
posted by TreeRooster at 9:24 AM on May 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

It always frustrates me when I hear anyone saying cutting carbon would 'hurt the economy' (whatever *that* means).

Being environmental would add TONS of jobs: new solar/wind plants, building and installing all those CO2 filters/convertors, thinking up, developing and deploying carbon-neutral and -negative alternatives: YUGE job creation, all that.

But somehow 'conservatives' (conserving what, exactly?) have been able to shout it would all destroy jobs ...

It still confuses me a bit how rational people have allowed idiots to have their say so loudly.
posted by MacD at 9:57 AM on May 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

The heat wave line may have seemed like it said, "If you step outside an air-conditioned space, you will immediately keel over dead," which is not what would happen, and would, indeed, be drunken-rambling kind of fears.

Instead, it's "if you don't work and sleep in an air-conditioned space, your lifespan is measured in hours." Maybe not a single-digit number of them, if you're careful not to increase your metabolism, but you won't have three days to cross the area to get to somewhere with artificial cooling tech, because your body will not be able to shed waste heat.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:29 PM on May 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years

Humanity is particularly sensitive because we are concentrated on land – which is warming faster than the oceans – and because most future population growth will be in already hot regions of Africa and Asia. As a result of these demographic factors, the average human will experience a temperature increase of 7.5C when global temperatures reach 3C, which is forecast towards the end of this century.

At that level, about 30% of the world’s population would live in extreme heat – defined as an average temperature of 29C (84F). These conditions are extremely rare outside the most scorched parts of the Sahara, but with global heating of 3C they are projected to envelop 1.2 billion people in India, 485 million in Nigeria and more than 100 million in each of Pakistan, Indonesia and Sudan.

posted by XMLicious at 12:43 PM on May 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

It's difficult to describe the hollow horror I feel. We aren't getting back to normal, this isn't the new normal, this is the first of the new normals.

I mean, I guess we're probably pretty atypical, pretty rare and privileged, to have come from one of the small brackets in history (and place) where there was ever an idea of one consistent normal, uninterrupted by serious war, famine, or epidemic, other major upheaval. If we'd been born in 1900 - which for some of us is only two generations away - we'd have been through so many drastically new normals by the age of 50, that this would feel like a mere blip in comparison.
posted by penguin pie at 3:42 PM on May 5, 2020 [3 favorites]