Everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met.
June 20, 2024 11:02 AM Subscribe
A round-up of links inside on the Russia-Ukraine war. Today is day 848 of the invasion.
Russia:
Russia wages a scorched-earth war in Ukraine with retrofitted bombs and new airstrips (AP)
Fire at drone-hit Russian oil depot rages for second day (Reuters)
Putin accuses NATO of creating a security threat for Russia in Asia (Reuters)
China:
Outgoing NATO chief says China should face consequences for backing Russia's war on Ukraine (CBC)
Ukraine peace summit is a ‘success’, China key to ending war: ambassador to Singapore (South China Morning Post)
China lobbying for its alternative peace plan ahead of Ukraine's summit, Reuters reports (Kyiv Independent)
EU:
EU passes 14th sanctions package in first major move against Russian gas (Kyiv Independent)
Romania to send Patriot defense system to Ukraine (Kyiv Independent)
EU envoys agree on more Russia sanctions. LNG imports are among the targets. (AP)
Japan:
Signing of the Accord on Support for Ukraine and Cooperation between the Government of Japan and Ukraine (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan)
Japan to finance US$188 million technology transfer to Ukrainian business (MSN)
North & South Korea:
Russia and North Korea sign mutual defence pact: Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un’s agreement raises western alarm about possible Russian help for nuclear programme (Guardian)
What’s known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea (AP)
Putin says South Korea would be making 'a big mistake' if it supplies arms to Ukraine (Reuters)
Ukraine:
Russian troops fail to advance as Ukraine garners military, financial aid (Al Jazeera)
Ukraine, Russia targeting each other's energy infrastructure (NHK World Japan)
Ukraine launches a national sexual assault registry for victims of Russian forces (CTV)
USA:
US to focus on deepening ties with Vietnam after Putin's Hanoi visit (Reuters)
Exclusive: Biden to ban US sales of Kaspersky software over Russia ties, source says (Reuters)
White House confirms Ukraine to get priority on air defense missile deliveries (Kyiv Independent; post title is a Biden quote from this article)
Aid: Fidelity Charitable list of organizations; UNICEF; Support Sellers in Ukraine
Russia:
Russia wages a scorched-earth war in Ukraine with retrofitted bombs and new airstrips (AP)
Fire at drone-hit Russian oil depot rages for second day (Reuters)
Putin accuses NATO of creating a security threat for Russia in Asia (Reuters)
China:
Outgoing NATO chief says China should face consequences for backing Russia's war on Ukraine (CBC)
Ukraine peace summit is a ‘success’, China key to ending war: ambassador to Singapore (South China Morning Post)
China lobbying for its alternative peace plan ahead of Ukraine's summit, Reuters reports (Kyiv Independent)
EU:
EU passes 14th sanctions package in first major move against Russian gas (Kyiv Independent)
Romania to send Patriot defense system to Ukraine (Kyiv Independent)
EU envoys agree on more Russia sanctions. LNG imports are among the targets. (AP)
Japan:
Signing of the Accord on Support for Ukraine and Cooperation between the Government of Japan and Ukraine (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan)
Japan to finance US$188 million technology transfer to Ukrainian business (MSN)
North & South Korea:
Russia and North Korea sign mutual defence pact: Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un’s agreement raises western alarm about possible Russian help for nuclear programme (Guardian)
What’s known, and not known, about the partnership agreement signed by Russia and North Korea (AP)
Putin says South Korea would be making 'a big mistake' if it supplies arms to Ukraine (Reuters)
Ukraine:
Russian troops fail to advance as Ukraine garners military, financial aid (Al Jazeera)
Ukraine, Russia targeting each other's energy infrastructure (NHK World Japan)
Ukraine launches a national sexual assault registry for victims of Russian forces (CTV)
USA:
US to focus on deepening ties with Vietnam after Putin's Hanoi visit (Reuters)
Exclusive: Biden to ban US sales of Kaspersky software over Russia ties, source says (Reuters)
White House confirms Ukraine to get priority on air defense missile deliveries (Kyiv Independent; post title is a Biden quote from this article)
Aid: Fidelity Charitable list of organizations; UNICEF; Support Sellers in Ukraine
Another major recent development was the ~$50 billion loan to Ukraine financed by interest accumulated by frozen Russian assets. I'd rather we just start seizing the assets outright in a tit-for-tat fashion (e.g. if a Russian missile strike causes $10 million in damage, then we seize $10 million), but this is a lot better than nothing.
posted by jedicus at 11:35 AM on June 20 [12 favorites]
posted by jedicus at 11:35 AM on June 20 [12 favorites]
Amazing that this war has gone 282 times longer than Russia thought it would. Who would have guessed that people don't like have their country invaded?
The Russian/NK pact is interesting in the sense of how much it reflects that NK of all places is supplying Russian forces with weaponry, but concerning over spillover effects. Does this mean that NK will start sending troops over to Russia? If SK provides arms to Ukraine, would that be a tenuous casus belli?
Doubt it, but things get weird when you start having all these pacts.
posted by drewbage1847 at 11:36 AM on June 20 [2 favorites]
The Russian/NK pact is interesting in the sense of how much it reflects that NK of all places is supplying Russian forces with weaponry, but concerning over spillover effects. Does this mean that NK will start sending troops over to Russia? If SK provides arms to Ukraine, would that be a tenuous casus belli?
Doubt it, but things get weird when you start having all these pacts.
posted by drewbage1847 at 11:36 AM on June 20 [2 favorites]
This ISW explainer is a great summary of the last year or so of the war, and why Russia is at long last, advancing.
TLDR, Ukraine with Western equipment: Winning, Ukraine without Western equipments: Not so good, getting pushed back, but still with the will and ability to fight back, and inflict significant damage on Russian operations.
Providing as much assistance as possible is very much in the USA's and NATO's best interests.... The delays have been more or less unconscionable. God help us all if 45 gets re-elected... I genuinely think he will stop all aid to Ukraine, and that's going to have disastrous consequences for Ukraine, world peace, and Western Europe safety and stability. Plus, of course, wherever else Russia decides to meddle/invade/bomb and loot/occupy.
posted by Jacen at 12:04 PM on June 20 [14 favorites]
TLDR, Ukraine with Western equipment: Winning, Ukraine without Western equipments: Not so good, getting pushed back, but still with the will and ability to fight back, and inflict significant damage on Russian operations.
Providing as much assistance as possible is very much in the USA's and NATO's best interests.... The delays have been more or less unconscionable. God help us all if 45 gets re-elected... I genuinely think he will stop all aid to Ukraine, and that's going to have disastrous consequences for Ukraine, world peace, and Western Europe safety and stability. Plus, of course, wherever else Russia decides to meddle/invade/bomb and loot/occupy.
posted by Jacen at 12:04 PM on June 20 [14 favorites]
It's telling that the second Ukrainian aid made it through Congress they put the brakes on Russian advances.
posted by drewbage1847 at 12:08 PM on June 20 [13 favorites]
posted by drewbage1847 at 12:08 PM on June 20 [13 favorites]
So many pieces in motion worldwide, now. It’s genuinely frightening.
posted by Thorzdad at 12:10 PM on June 20 [6 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 12:10 PM on June 20 [6 favorites]
Somewhere between 350,000 (US est.) and 500,000 (UK and UKR est.) Russian casualties (killed, injured, or captured). This war could see over a million combined Rus/Ukr casualties before it is over. It boggles the mind. What a horror.
posted by gwint at 12:11 PM on June 20 [7 favorites]
posted by gwint at 12:11 PM on June 20 [7 favorites]
I've been reading bits that Ukraine is pushing back and could advance, wondering what will happen if they manage to push all the Russians back over the original border? It's a pretty long border, will they need to keep shooting at the edge?
posted by sammyo at 12:13 PM on June 20
posted by sammyo at 12:13 PM on June 20
I mean in that unlikely scenario you would have to practice diplomacy. Shelling in the Donbass was exactly what led to this bloody conflict in the first place. As desirable as it is for the west to maintain an enemy to the east to dump military spending into, the only humane solution involves coming to the table.
posted by jy4m at 12:24 PM on June 20 [5 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 12:24 PM on June 20 [5 favorites]
Even with Western aid, Ukraine simply does not have the means to push Russia entirely off its territory, not with conventional warfare. They're too well dug in at this point. The only way Ukraine wins is some sort of Russian collapse; either the government collapses, the economy collapses, or military discipline collapses. And historically, that's arguably the only way Russia has ever lost a war, 1905 and 1917 being the prime examples.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:27 PM on June 20 [5 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 12:27 PM on June 20 [5 favorites]
jy4m: I mean in that unlikely scenario you would have to practice diplomacy. Shelling in the Donbass was exactly what led to this bloody conflict in the first place. As desirable as it is for the west to maintain an enemy to the east to dump military spending into, the only humane solution involves coming to the table.
Western countries are secondary players in the war. The main actors are Ukraine and Russia. The only role for “the west” in any negotiations is acting as allies of Ukraine or possibly guarantors of certain security arrangements.
posted by Kattullus at 12:32 PM on June 20 [10 favorites]
Western countries are secondary players in the war. The main actors are Ukraine and Russia. The only role for “the west” in any negotiations is acting as allies of Ukraine or possibly guarantors of certain security arrangements.
posted by Kattullus at 12:32 PM on June 20 [10 favorites]
Shelling in the Donbass was exactly what led to this bloody conflict in the first place.
Russia invading its neighbor was what led to this bloody conflict.
the only humane solution involves coming to the table
The only humane solution is Russian forces withdrawing to Russia. All of them. All the way.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:02 PM on June 20 [55 favorites]
Russia invading its neighbor was what led to this bloody conflict.
the only humane solution involves coming to the table
The only humane solution is Russian forces withdrawing to Russia. All of them. All the way.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:02 PM on June 20 [55 favorites]
I've been reading bits that Ukraine is pushing back and could advance, wondering what will happen if they manage to push all the Russians back over the original border? It's a pretty long border, will they need to keep shooting at the edge?
My limited understanding that is almost all the EU and US material is provided on the condition that it not be used on Russian soil, barring some of their own Soviet surplus. If the AFU has their pre-war equipment in inventory, that can be used to hit Russian soil, but none of the new stuff can. This gives the Russians a lot of ability to mass forces, and operate air platforms, not far over their boarder, with relative impunity. It's a huge tactical advantage for the Russians that allows them to keep on making attempts on Ukrainian territory, as normally it's the huge numbers of fires in the theatres that prevents concentration of forces, which gives the defenders their particularly noticeable edge in this conflict.
Now this is from memory, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong. thanks.
posted by LegallyBread at 1:03 PM on June 20 [1 favorite]
My limited understanding that is almost all the EU and US material is provided on the condition that it not be used on Russian soil, barring some of their own Soviet surplus. If the AFU has their pre-war equipment in inventory, that can be used to hit Russian soil, but none of the new stuff can. This gives the Russians a lot of ability to mass forces, and operate air platforms, not far over their boarder, with relative impunity. It's a huge tactical advantage for the Russians that allows them to keep on making attempts on Ukrainian territory, as normally it's the huge numbers of fires in the theatres that prevents concentration of forces, which gives the defenders their particularly noticeable edge in this conflict.
Now this is from memory, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong. thanks.
posted by LegallyBread at 1:03 PM on June 20 [1 favorite]
I highly disagree that Ukraine cannot remove the Russian invader. Russia has and likely continues to have logistics problems. Western weapons are good at cutting logistics, and that's how Ukraine has (partially) achieved so many good victories already... Cut the food and weapons lines, Russia retreats. Repeat. Allowing Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russian international borders only hastens that effect. It doesn't matter how dug in the front lines are if you can't feed them, or worse (from Putin perspective) get them bullets.
And of course, the most humane answer is, as it always has been, that Russia goes home and stops attacking/invading/ harming civilians and damaging the environment and economy of a sovereign state, one it invaded without cause. The second is that the West provides all the equipment it can, to force and end to the war faster. Putin thinks he can hold his illegal gains, and doesn't care one bit about how many people suffer.
posted by Jacen at 1:04 PM on June 20 [11 favorites]
And of course, the most humane answer is, as it always has been, that Russia goes home and stops attacking/invading/ harming civilians and damaging the environment and economy of a sovereign state, one it invaded without cause. The second is that the West provides all the equipment it can, to force and end to the war faster. Putin thinks he can hold his illegal gains, and doesn't care one bit about how many people suffer.
posted by Jacen at 1:04 PM on June 20 [11 favorites]
As desirable as it is for the west to maintain an enemy to the east to dump military spending into, the only humane solution involves coming to the table.
Western countries are secondary players in the war. The main actors are Ukraine and Russia.
100%. Westerners of all ideological stripes should resist the urge to make ourselves the main characters in this war (or in any war between two non-U.S. opponents, for that matter).
The narrative that makes the war in Ukraine into a proxy conflict between the U.S. and Russia is simply a retread of the old "Great Game" view of the world.
Countries like Ukraine -- or the various countries that have decided, of their own free will, to join NATO in recent decades -- are not mere pawns, destined to be controlled either by Russia or the West.
Portraying them as such is deeply patronizing, and a form of imperialist/colonialist thinking. It's dismaying that a certain portion of the left still chooses to frame this war in that way.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:11 PM on June 20 [14 favorites]
Western countries are secondary players in the war. The main actors are Ukraine and Russia.
100%. Westerners of all ideological stripes should resist the urge to make ourselves the main characters in this war (or in any war between two non-U.S. opponents, for that matter).
The narrative that makes the war in Ukraine into a proxy conflict between the U.S. and Russia is simply a retread of the old "Great Game" view of the world.
Countries like Ukraine -- or the various countries that have decided, of their own free will, to join NATO in recent decades -- are not mere pawns, destined to be controlled either by Russia or the West.
Portraying them as such is deeply patronizing, and a form of imperialist/colonialist thinking. It's dismaying that a certain portion of the left still chooses to frame this war in that way.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:11 PM on June 20 [14 favorites]
Artifice, could you do me a courtesy and explain what definition of imperialism you're working with?
posted by jy4m at 1:34 PM on June 20
posted by jy4m at 1:34 PM on June 20
Portraying them as such is deeply patronizing, and a form of imperialist/colonialist thinking. It's dismaying that a certain portion of the left still chooses to frame this war in that way.
Nation states aren't individual human actors, and the idea that any state acts without some influence from the surrounding "great power" conflicts is not in step with reality. In Ukraine in particular, both Russia and the US have attempted to exert pressure to bring Ukraine fully within their sphere of influence. Pressure the Ukrainians have done an admirable job resisting for the most part, but which can't be completely eliminated from any full understanding of the situation. In particular, Ukraine is suffering from western support for far right nationalists during Yanukovych's government.
I pray this war ends soon in a complete Ukrainian victory. It is not only just and what is best for the people of Ukraine. It is what is best for the conscript soldiers being fed into this meat grinder by Russia's fascist government. Failure to support Ukraine is of help to no one by Putin and his masters.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 1:49 PM on June 20 [7 favorites]
Nation states aren't individual human actors, and the idea that any state acts without some influence from the surrounding "great power" conflicts is not in step with reality. In Ukraine in particular, both Russia and the US have attempted to exert pressure to bring Ukraine fully within their sphere of influence. Pressure the Ukrainians have done an admirable job resisting for the most part, but which can't be completely eliminated from any full understanding of the situation. In particular, Ukraine is suffering from western support for far right nationalists during Yanukovych's government.
I pray this war ends soon in a complete Ukrainian victory. It is not only just and what is best for the people of Ukraine. It is what is best for the conscript soldiers being fed into this meat grinder by Russia's fascist government. Failure to support Ukraine is of help to no one by Putin and his masters.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 1:49 PM on June 20 [7 favorites]
Seems the don't shoot across the border restriction is slowly being dissolved.
US signals that it has expanded policy to allow Ukraine to counterstrike into Russia
posted by sammyo at 2:01 PM on June 20 [3 favorites]
US signals that it has expanded policy to allow Ukraine to counterstrike into Russia
posted by sammyo at 2:01 PM on June 20 [3 favorites]
There was a video a couple weeks ago from Anders Puck Nielsen about preventing Ukraine from striking targets in proper Russia territory with western weapons:
US weapons will give Russia significant problems
The relevant part is that, originally, this wasn't even a russian "red line", but a restriction decided by the western allies. Judging by what I read in the german press, it was about not beeing seen as active parties in the war, which might lead Russia to retaliate directly.
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 2:35 PM on June 20 [2 favorites]
US weapons will give Russia significant problems
The relevant part is that, originally, this wasn't even a russian "red line", but a restriction decided by the western allies. Judging by what I read in the german press, it was about not beeing seen as active parties in the war, which might lead Russia to retaliate directly.
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 2:35 PM on June 20 [2 favorites]
Shelling in the Donbass was exactly what led to this bloody conflict in the first place.
You are repeating demonstrably false Kremlin propaganda.
posted by nestor_makhno at 3:25 PM on June 20 [18 favorites]
You are repeating demonstrably false Kremlin propaganda.
posted by nestor_makhno at 3:25 PM on June 20 [18 favorites]
Okay then, if you prefer: shelling in the Donbass which immediately preceded the invasion had nothing whatsoever to do with it, but I still regard it as a bad thing in and of itself, and my definition of peace involves not doing that. Happy?
posted by jy4m at 4:18 PM on June 20 [1 favorite]
posted by jy4m at 4:18 PM on June 20 [1 favorite]
you're referring to the February 17th shelling that bellingcat deduced fairly quickly came from Russian back fighters all the while Russian tanks lining up against the border.
you're absolutely right the Russians shouldn't do that.
posted by clavdivs at 4:36 PM on June 20 [14 favorites]
you're absolutely right the Russians shouldn't do that.
posted by clavdivs at 4:36 PM on June 20 [14 favorites]
shelling in the Donbass which immediately preceded the invasion
What about invading a neighbor and taking their land (Donbas, 2014) which is a decade before the current incident. So Ukraine shelling Ukraine, oh but it was russia all along...
posted by sammyo at 4:49 PM on June 20 [4 favorites]
What about invading a neighbor and taking their land (Donbas, 2014) which is a decade before the current incident. So Ukraine shelling Ukraine, oh but it was russia all along...
posted by sammyo at 4:49 PM on June 20 [4 favorites]
The only way Ukraine wins is some sort of Russian collapse; either the government collapses, the economy collapses, or military discipline collapses.
When you're looking to North Korea for potential support and assistance, I'm guessing total collapse isn't really impossible to contemplate.
posted by mazola at 5:27 PM on June 20 [4 favorites]
When you're looking to North Korea for potential support and assistance, I'm guessing total collapse isn't really impossible to contemplate.
posted by mazola at 5:27 PM on June 20 [4 favorites]
Ukraine will continue to advance until they destroy Russia's ability to wage war on them or they've agreed to some kind of enforceable peace.
At which point Ukraine would then presumably give whatever Russian land they held at the time.
posted by VTX at 7:38 PM on June 20
At which point Ukraine would then presumably give whatever Russian land they held at the time.
posted by VTX at 7:38 PM on June 20
Like an ATM in a dangerous part of town.
Belarus is amping up ammo production.
Lithuanian Foreign Ministry believes Ukraine should be allowed to strike Belarusian territory
posted by clavdivs at 7:41 PM on June 20
Belarus is amping up ammo production.
Lithuanian Foreign Ministry believes Ukraine should be allowed to strike Belarusian territory
posted by clavdivs at 7:41 PM on June 20
And historically, that's arguably the only way Russia has ever lost a war,
There's also Afghanistan, but that was a complex case.
posted by ovvl at 8:49 PM on June 20 [3 favorites]
There's also Afghanistan, but that was a complex case.
posted by ovvl at 8:49 PM on June 20 [3 favorites]
the ~$50 billion loan to Ukraine financed by interest accumulated by frozen Russian assets.
I absolutely hated this news when it broke, for the longterm implications on what it means for sovereign bonds and God help you if you fall outside the Western order. Not to mention when (not if) this war is done, note the terms - who's going to be on the hook for this? Not the western backers. Poor Ukraine, I can't fault them at all for having to go along with this.
posted by cendawanita at 9:10 PM on June 20 [2 favorites]
I absolutely hated this news when it broke, for the longterm implications on what it means for sovereign bonds and God help you if you fall outside the Western order. Not to mention when (not if) this war is done, note the terms - who's going to be on the hook for this? Not the western backers. Poor Ukraine, I can't fault them at all for having to go along with this.
posted by cendawanita at 9:10 PM on June 20 [2 favorites]
Its hard to see the Western governments forcing Ukraine to pay back the money connected to Russian assets that it was given and used to fight the Russian invasion. I think they're more likely to call it reparations. And barring a total Ukrainian collapse its hard to see Russia being in a position to force Ukraine to pay anything back.
As long as the West supports Ukraine either Ukraine will eventually gain the upper hand through either long slow attrition or a breakthrough, or there will be a long stalemate. I don't think Russia is likely to ever start making big gains again. I think this war is going to go on until the Russian public has had their fill of sending their young men to die stupidly in Ukraine. At that point there will probably be some negotiations and Russia may sue to keep some small portion of the land they've gained since 2014 depending on where the front lines are when the negotiations start and who has the upper hand.
posted by Reverend John at 9:29 PM on June 20
As long as the West supports Ukraine either Ukraine will eventually gain the upper hand through either long slow attrition or a breakthrough, or there will be a long stalemate. I don't think Russia is likely to ever start making big gains again. I think this war is going to go on until the Russian public has had their fill of sending their young men to die stupidly in Ukraine. At that point there will probably be some negotiations and Russia may sue to keep some small portion of the land they've gained since 2014 depending on where the front lines are when the negotiations start and who has the upper hand.
posted by Reverend John at 9:29 PM on June 20
. I think they're more likely to call it reparations. And barring a total Ukrainian collapse its hard to see Russia being in a position to force Ukraine to pay anything back.
Yes. As to why I still think that that's no comfort: consider who will be in any position (in the current western political climate) to help support reconstruction of Ukraine, and in a way that doesn't leave sizeable development gaps for the unfortunately well-resourced local right wing and existing criminal relationships (as the enemy of my enemy etc maxim is at play) to take advantage of. As you say, a scenario where this is even a relevant concern will be when Russia collapses substantively or significantly - thus impacting the two socioeconomic entities even further.
posted by cendawanita at 9:39 PM on June 20
Yes. As to why I still think that that's no comfort: consider who will be in any position (in the current western political climate) to help support reconstruction of Ukraine, and in a way that doesn't leave sizeable development gaps for the unfortunately well-resourced local right wing and existing criminal relationships (as the enemy of my enemy etc maxim is at play) to take advantage of. As you say, a scenario where this is even a relevant concern will be when Russia collapses substantively or significantly - thus impacting the two socioeconomic entities even further.
posted by cendawanita at 9:39 PM on June 20
The western governments are not going to go asking Ukraine to pay them back. That’s not only unrealistic, it also ignores the value for the investment of supplying Ukraine. A significant portion of US aid to Ukraine is weapons and vehicles that were in storage, many of which were awaiting the scrap heap. There’s tangible spending as well. In return, Russia’s military capability has been drastically degraded, without NATO troops (aside from advisers or trainers here and there) being involved aside from delivery. F-16s? A few miles from me, there are hundreds of them sitting in the boneyard in the desert. Many of them are destined to be converted to target practice drones. These planes can easily be spared for Ukraine without much expenditure aside from restoring to service (which is cheap.) Furthermore, the US is getting to see the battlefield of tomorrow without being the ones caught in the crossfire. The evolution of drone warfare in this war has been eye-popping. Ukraine has homegrown weapons, drones that they’ve bought, and consumer grade drones repurposed into tank killing bombers. They’ve also been evolving anti-drone weaponry. Everything Ukraine is doing with drones, Russia is countering. Then Ukraine comes up with their own countermeasures. And back and forth. The amount of military knowledge that the US usually gets the hard way has been something that you can’t place a value on. They’re also learning how certain weapons systems work. Or in some cases, how they don’t. Russia has boasted about their “hypersonic” Kinzhal missile. Turns out that Patriot missile batteries aren’t having much problem reducing those Kinzhals to scrap.
Lastly, there are a lot of lessons from WW2 that are coming into play here. Instead of Russia just getting to roll in and take Ukraine, like Hitler in the early days of WW2 with the Sudetenland and then Poland, they’ve been held back. Had they conquered Ukraine in two weeks as expected, Putin would have set his sights on the next country he wanted to take over. (Also, they might have captured Kiev but they were never going to hold it. The populace was ready to turn that place into a hornets nest.) Zelenskyy said in the past that this war eventually ends at the negotiating table. However, when those negotiations take place and what they cover are up to Ukraine, not to western outsiders who want the war to end, and who are willing to give parts of Ukraine to Putin to appease him. When Ukraine is ready, negotiations can take place. Better yet, Russia could end this war tomorrow by deciding to GTFO out of Ukraine.
posted by azpenguin at 11:56 PM on June 20 [10 favorites]
Lastly, there are a lot of lessons from WW2 that are coming into play here. Instead of Russia just getting to roll in and take Ukraine, like Hitler in the early days of WW2 with the Sudetenland and then Poland, they’ve been held back. Had they conquered Ukraine in two weeks as expected, Putin would have set his sights on the next country he wanted to take over. (Also, they might have captured Kiev but they were never going to hold it. The populace was ready to turn that place into a hornets nest.) Zelenskyy said in the past that this war eventually ends at the negotiating table. However, when those negotiations take place and what they cover are up to Ukraine, not to western outsiders who want the war to end, and who are willing to give parts of Ukraine to Putin to appease him. When Ukraine is ready, negotiations can take place. Better yet, Russia could end this war tomorrow by deciding to GTFO out of Ukraine.
posted by azpenguin at 11:56 PM on June 20 [10 favorites]
Failure to support Ukraine is of help to no one
there's an elephant... [politico]
posted by HearHere at 12:06 AM on June 21 [1 favorite]
there's an elephant... [politico]
posted by HearHere at 12:06 AM on June 21 [1 favorite]
The term 'western outsiders' prefers to land on peace-inclined targets, so take care you don't get stung. It's because it tends to get confused by the military stripes.
posted by Ashenmote at 1:13 AM on June 21 [1 favorite]
posted by Ashenmote at 1:13 AM on June 21 [1 favorite]
I have no quarrel on the justness of the Ukrainian cause, and especially if anyone is partial to the Russian argument, that is still not a justification for their actions in the last decade at least. Because Zelenskyy is right, this needs to end at the negotiation table. I'm just conscious of the existing relationships and how postcolonial states get screwed, and considering how even now Russian corporate-state relationships are still extant in Europe, what more outside of it. For the purpose of my comments in this thread I am agnostic on the military analysis - I am very much dwelling only on the ramifications of the international finance and banking landscape with this move to utilise interests on Russian (sovereign) assets. You can't ask for a better demonstration that a unipolar system will be a risk for the textually ideological competitors or those wanting to "neutral" (whatever that means). Russia's delulu but not China, and they're an actual threat in the Pacific. The eruptions along geopolitical faultlines can't be normalized much, if you have any clout at all. (Of course this entire reading is independent of any moral dimension)
posted by cendawanita at 1:58 AM on June 21 [2 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 1:58 AM on June 21 [2 favorites]
>they’ve been held back.
the costs we're incurring support Ukraine will hopefully obviate having to do the same thing for Taiwan down the road.
Plus the money we've allocated is a rounding error on our Afghanistan nation-building adventure 2001 - 2020.
posted by torokunai at 2:30 AM on June 21 [2 favorites]
the costs we're incurring support Ukraine will hopefully obviate having to do the same thing for Taiwan down the road.
Plus the money we've allocated is a rounding error on our Afghanistan nation-building adventure 2001 - 2020.
posted by torokunai at 2:30 AM on June 21 [2 favorites]
re: Putin says South Korea would be making 'a big mistake' if it supplies arms to Ukraine (Reuters)
I’m wondering if Russia didn’t contemplate South Korea having a response to Russia’s push to have North Korea give full support in their ‘sacred fight’ against Ukraine. It would not surprise me, in the sense of the classic "Putin: master strategist" meme.
Although it’s unclear whether or which weapons South Korea would send to Ukraine, I remember seeing reports of the South Korean military using auto-aiming robotic sentry guns. And this was something like 20 years ago. If South Korea chooses to support Ukraine with weapons, that could be a big deal.
I’ve seen speculation that North Korea could go as far as sending tens of thousands of soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Somehow this seems somewhat unlikely, since keeping people from seeing the outside world is how Kim Jong Un’s prison state works, even if that world is the Russian World … while Russia has been on a trajectory to turning into a gigantic North Korea, it’s not quite there yet. Of course there is a chance that Kim Jong Un, like Russia, wants to weed out undesirables in the meat grinder. This may not be completely out of the question.
Not surprisingly, Vietnam did not give Putin the same support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Despite their differences, Vietnam will be made aware of the fact that China does not want Russia forming a strong military alliance in the east, even if that alliance would include China. The last thing they want is the logical consequences from South Korea, Japan and other neighboring countries (see: South Korea’s reaction here).
posted by UN at 2:37 AM on June 21 [5 favorites]
I’m wondering if Russia didn’t contemplate South Korea having a response to Russia’s push to have North Korea give full support in their ‘sacred fight’ against Ukraine. It would not surprise me, in the sense of the classic "Putin: master strategist" meme.
Although it’s unclear whether or which weapons South Korea would send to Ukraine, I remember seeing reports of the South Korean military using auto-aiming robotic sentry guns. And this was something like 20 years ago. If South Korea chooses to support Ukraine with weapons, that could be a big deal.
I’ve seen speculation that North Korea could go as far as sending tens of thousands of soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Somehow this seems somewhat unlikely, since keeping people from seeing the outside world is how Kim Jong Un’s prison state works, even if that world is the Russian World … while Russia has been on a trajectory to turning into a gigantic North Korea, it’s not quite there yet. Of course there is a chance that Kim Jong Un, like Russia, wants to weed out undesirables in the meat grinder. This may not be completely out of the question.
Not surprisingly, Vietnam did not give Putin the same support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Despite their differences, Vietnam will be made aware of the fact that China does not want Russia forming a strong military alliance in the east, even if that alliance would include China. The last thing they want is the logical consequences from South Korea, Japan and other neighboring countries (see: South Korea’s reaction here).
posted by UN at 2:37 AM on June 21 [5 favorites]
Technically South Korea is already contributing to supporting Ukraine - Poland went on a mad shopping spree in Seoul and sent just about all our previous gear to Ukraine.
Re rebuilding Ukraine, Europe is thankfully well aware of what a post war country needs and there's a reason Ukraine got EU approval to begin membership negotiations today (and Moldova too). I wouldn't be too worried about that part, we have too many construction companies hungry for new business.
What we need now is for the war to end like Soviets in Afghanistan - an ignominious pullback when the political cost of continuing it outweighs any possible gains. And giving Ukraine weaponry makes those gains less and less likely. So far the US just removed the restrictions on hitting Russian territory entirely, not just the border regions, and the Ukrainians promptly hit five different oil refineries in one night.
In better news, Kyiv Pride was last weekend, for the first time since the invasion! Kharkiv is under siege right now so no repeat of their Pride march in underground tunnels because they're in active use as bomb shelters, but they're doing a Pride picnic next week. To celebrate Pride, support the LGBT members of the Ukrainian army - they've got a lot of new gear including Combat Sodomite patches when you really want to weird people out.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:59 AM on June 21 [10 favorites]
Re rebuilding Ukraine, Europe is thankfully well aware of what a post war country needs and there's a reason Ukraine got EU approval to begin membership negotiations today (and Moldova too). I wouldn't be too worried about that part, we have too many construction companies hungry for new business.
What we need now is for the war to end like Soviets in Afghanistan - an ignominious pullback when the political cost of continuing it outweighs any possible gains. And giving Ukraine weaponry makes those gains less and less likely. So far the US just removed the restrictions on hitting Russian territory entirely, not just the border regions, and the Ukrainians promptly hit five different oil refineries in one night.
In better news, Kyiv Pride was last weekend, for the first time since the invasion! Kharkiv is under siege right now so no repeat of their Pride march in underground tunnels because they're in active use as bomb shelters, but they're doing a Pride picnic next week. To celebrate Pride, support the LGBT members of the Ukrainian army - they've got a lot of new gear including Combat Sodomite patches when you really want to weird people out.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:59 AM on June 21 [10 favorites]
That's a good point, about South Korea already being involved in that exchange with Poland. Still, this way Ukraine could be getting modern weapons directly, and South Korea is, it seems, not waiting around:
South Korea To Supply Ukraine With 155-mm Artillery Shells and Air Defense Systems
posted by UN at 8:19 AM on June 21 [3 favorites]
South Korea To Supply Ukraine With 155-mm Artillery Shells and Air Defense Systems
posted by UN at 8:19 AM on June 21 [3 favorites]
Vietnam will be made aware of the fact that China does not want Russia forming a strong military alliance in the east, even if that alliance would include China.
that's not a bad point and going back to the earlier Vietnam War where Russia and China cooperated together for material and troops for the North Vietnamese.
meanwhile, in Cambodia, "China's military shows off robot dog with automatic rifle mounted on its back"
posted by clavdivs at 12:56 PM on June 21 [1 favorite]
that's not a bad point and going back to the earlier Vietnam War where Russia and China cooperated together for material and troops for the North Vietnamese.
meanwhile, in Cambodia, "China's military shows off robot dog with automatic rifle mounted on its back"
posted by clavdivs at 12:56 PM on June 21 [1 favorite]
On the topic of war fighting technology:
Unboxing a Russian Turtle Tank
posted by UN at 11:05 PM on June 21 [2 favorites]
Unboxing a Russian Turtle Tank
posted by UN at 11:05 PM on June 21 [2 favorites]
I get the impression that Putin and co. are still cautiously optimistic that they can win the war. They have assembled a set of international allies. Their defence industry continues to pump out massive amounts of arms. In addition, they still have massive stockpiles of Soviet weaponry. They have succeeded in carrying on international trade in the shadows. They continue to mobilize sufficient troops without going full war economy. And, most importantly, the Russians continue to advance all across the front. The only fly in their ointment is Western financing and arming of Ukraine. Putin is probably anxious to know the result of the American presidential election.
The Putinists are probably too well entrenched in power to respond to either domestic or diplomatic pressure to end the war. The only way to reassert a rules-based international order is to push the Russians back into Russian and squeeze them with sanctions until they return every single Ukrainian they kidnapped.
But that is a brutal burden to put on Ukrainian shoulders. We have just now started giving minimal quantities of arms, given the size of Putin's army. The West should now supply much better quality weapons to conserve Ukrainian lives.
Personally, I favour a massive surge of quality weapons. Destroy Putin's war infrastructure. Hasten the end of the war to save Ukrainian and Russian lives. But I have no idea how to treat the Russians after the war. Justice dictates that the Russians pay for all the damage they inflicted on Ukraine. But if Russia is forced to pay that bill, it will be so impoverished and resentful that Russian society will just stay in the thrall of Putin wannabes.
posted by SnowRottie at 8:03 AM on June 22 [3 favorites]
The Putinists are probably too well entrenched in power to respond to either domestic or diplomatic pressure to end the war. The only way to reassert a rules-based international order is to push the Russians back into Russian and squeeze them with sanctions until they return every single Ukrainian they kidnapped.
But that is a brutal burden to put on Ukrainian shoulders. We have just now started giving minimal quantities of arms, given the size of Putin's army. The West should now supply much better quality weapons to conserve Ukrainian lives.
Personally, I favour a massive surge of quality weapons. Destroy Putin's war infrastructure. Hasten the end of the war to save Ukrainian and Russian lives. But I have no idea how to treat the Russians after the war. Justice dictates that the Russians pay for all the damage they inflicted on Ukraine. But if Russia is forced to pay that bill, it will be so impoverished and resentful that Russian society will just stay in the thrall of Putin wannabes.
posted by SnowRottie at 8:03 AM on June 22 [3 favorites]
Starting in 2023, South Korea had already put their finger on the scale prior to North Korea by supplying artillery rounds to Ukraine, albeit indirectly with the US as an intermediary. The idea that South Korea is just reacting here really doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
I've only been paying attention in bursts (2014 Maidan Revolution, start of the 2022 invasion) but observers I trust have been putting Ukraine on the losing side of the war of attrition. It's very likely to end at the negotiating table, but you might not like the result.
posted by ndr at 8:07 PM on June 22
I've only been paying attention in bursts (2014 Maidan Revolution, start of the 2022 invasion) but observers I trust have been putting Ukraine on the losing side of the war of attrition. It's very likely to end at the negotiating table, but you might not like the result.
posted by ndr at 8:07 PM on June 22
I don't think Russia can 'win' (for whatever victory conditions they may decide at a particular point in time) - reality is, they can occupy territory but they won't be able to subjugate the population. Even if there is a negotiated settlement, I can see asymmetric warfare continuing until Russia is forced to pull out (that might take years but Afghanistan, Iraq et al took years). Potentially Russia could relocate people from within Russia to captured territory but they'll need to clear the land of mine-fields and munitions before it can be productive.
Russia can't really afford to poke NATO because they'll loose any conventional conflict... all they can really do is hope to sow disinfo and disrupt/undermine bordering countries (which they've been doing for a couple of decades now) through influence own sabotage operations.
How will Russia respond to resistance/guerilla activity after a negotiated settlement? Exterminate everyone and/or start attacking Ukraine again? They just don't have the forces or will-power to hold the ground (post-conflict)... and if they do, they'll need to do something constructive with it, which again, I doubt they have the resources to accomplish. Possibly, they could wave the nuclear stick if they felt the fall of the occupied territory represented an existential threat to themselves but who would they attack? Using nukes to quell an asymmetric conflict or threaten backers of any resistance movement would (a) lead to global retribution (b) double-down on the visible weakness as they can't even hold what they've taken without resorting to big-red-button.
Globally, the conflict has shown Russia to be deeply flawed militarily, its really only the nukes keeping them at the top tier table. Everything else is falling apart (probably the nukes too).
What they do have, is an ability to grind out the conflict for a loooong time. Probably until Putin dies or is ousted.
posted by phigmov at 10:28 PM on June 22 [1 favorite]
Russia can't really afford to poke NATO because they'll loose any conventional conflict... all they can really do is hope to sow disinfo and disrupt/undermine bordering countries (which they've been doing for a couple of decades now) through influence own sabotage operations.
How will Russia respond to resistance/guerilla activity after a negotiated settlement? Exterminate everyone and/or start attacking Ukraine again? They just don't have the forces or will-power to hold the ground (post-conflict)... and if they do, they'll need to do something constructive with it, which again, I doubt they have the resources to accomplish. Possibly, they could wave the nuclear stick if they felt the fall of the occupied territory represented an existential threat to themselves but who would they attack? Using nukes to quell an asymmetric conflict or threaten backers of any resistance movement would (a) lead to global retribution (b) double-down on the visible weakness as they can't even hold what they've taken without resorting to big-red-button.
Globally, the conflict has shown Russia to be deeply flawed militarily, its really only the nukes keeping them at the top tier table. Everything else is falling apart (probably the nukes too).
What they do have, is an ability to grind out the conflict for a loooong time. Probably until Putin dies or is ousted.
posted by phigmov at 10:28 PM on June 22 [1 favorite]
Russia has a reputation of having the ability to fight a war of attrition for ages, which stems largely from the history of WW2, but much of it is based on an oversimplification of what went on then (things like the Red Army having hundreds of thousands of non-Soviet troops at their disposal, and the Soviets getting massive support from the United States, etc.).
Without delving into that, I haven't seen any non-Putin-friendly military economists who see Russia as having the ability to keep this war going indefinitely, so when I see comments about "observers I trust" without backing links, well, [insert side eye of scepticism]... The putinists need westerners to think they can keep this going so that they have a hope at forcing Ukraine to the 'negotiation' table (ie: force Ukraine to relinquish their land by contract).
In modern times, big empire-states have had an extremely poor track record at wars of conquest. The Soviets in Afghanistan, western countries in Afghanistan, the US in Iraq, France in Vietnam, China in Vietnam, the US in Vietnam, and so on. Sure, there are counter examples. But not at this scale.
Russia is spending extreme resources to maintain their current level of attrition in Ukraine. Ukraine is simply too advanced technologically, they can exert immense pain on Russia – including things like striking all those oil refineries and storage facilities in Russia. And these are capabilities that are increasing. See also: Ukraine functionally disabling Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Russia is faced with dilemma that they themselves probably don't see (such is the hubris of neo-Stalinist imperial thought). If they continue their attempt at conquest of Ukrainian land, their losses dramatically increase. If they try to just maintain the land they already seized, Ukraine continues to improve, produce and import drones, robots, weaponry that they can use 'from a distance' for the attrition rate that best suits Ukraine.
This is how empires get destroyed.
The idea that South Korea is just reacting here really doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
This is either a red herring or a misunderstanding of my comment. I wrote that "master strategist" Putin, by deepening his alliance with North Korea, gave South Korea a reason to react with stronger support for Ukraine. I am not interested if Putin or Kim Jong Un feels they're justified in doing what they're doing, they're the aggressors here no matter how they want to justify their war.
posted by UN at 3:56 AM on June 23 [12 favorites]
Without delving into that, I haven't seen any non-Putin-friendly military economists who see Russia as having the ability to keep this war going indefinitely, so when I see comments about "observers I trust" without backing links, well, [insert side eye of scepticism]... The putinists need westerners to think they can keep this going so that they have a hope at forcing Ukraine to the 'negotiation' table (ie: force Ukraine to relinquish their land by contract).
In modern times, big empire-states have had an extremely poor track record at wars of conquest. The Soviets in Afghanistan, western countries in Afghanistan, the US in Iraq, France in Vietnam, China in Vietnam, the US in Vietnam, and so on. Sure, there are counter examples. But not at this scale.
Russia is spending extreme resources to maintain their current level of attrition in Ukraine. Ukraine is simply too advanced technologically, they can exert immense pain on Russia – including things like striking all those oil refineries and storage facilities in Russia. And these are capabilities that are increasing. See also: Ukraine functionally disabling Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Russia is faced with dilemma that they themselves probably don't see (such is the hubris of neo-Stalinist imperial thought). If they continue their attempt at conquest of Ukrainian land, their losses dramatically increase. If they try to just maintain the land they already seized, Ukraine continues to improve, produce and import drones, robots, weaponry that they can use 'from a distance' for the attrition rate that best suits Ukraine.
This is how empires get destroyed.
The idea that South Korea is just reacting here really doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
This is either a red herring or a misunderstanding of my comment. I wrote that "master strategist" Putin, by deepening his alliance with North Korea, gave South Korea a reason to react with stronger support for Ukraine. I am not interested if Putin or Kim Jong Un feels they're justified in doing what they're doing, they're the aggressors here no matter how they want to justify their war.
posted by UN at 3:56 AM on June 23 [12 favorites]
when I see comments about "observers I trust" without backing links, well, [insert side eye of scepticism]...
Agreed. Meanwhile attrition continues:
Ukraine says it destroyed Russian drone base: Ukraine says satellite pictures show the destruction of a Russian warehouse used to launch Iranian-made drones and to train cadets. [BBC].
posted by mazola at 8:16 AM on June 23 [4 favorites]
Agreed. Meanwhile attrition continues:
Ukraine says it destroyed Russian drone base: Ukraine says satellite pictures show the destruction of a Russian warehouse used to launch Iranian-made drones and to train cadets. [BBC].
posted by mazola at 8:16 AM on June 23 [4 favorites]
Russia's ability to out attrite Ukraine stems from having almost 4 times the population and being able to fire about 5 times more artillery. The reality is that old fashioned artillery remains the principle source of firepower and the idea that Ukraine is miles ahead technologically is ludicrously out of touch. The point of attrition is Russia doesn't need to sustain the war indefinitely, they just need to outlast Ukraine. Russia is estimating to be spending 6% GDP on the war, which is hardly approaching full mobilization.
I think people ought to be more interested in the decision calculus of the other side; paying more attention decades ago might've been enough to avert what's happening in Ukraine today. Not paying attention and getting high on feelings of righteousness was how WWI happened.
posted by ndr at 4:31 AM on June 24 [1 favorite]
This is either a red herring or a misunderstanding of my comment. I wrote that "master strategist" Putin, by deepening his alliance with North Korea, gave South Korea a reason to react with stronger support for Ukraine. I am not interested if Putin or Kim Jong Un feels they're justified in doing what they're doing, they're the aggressors here no matter how they want to justify their war.I'm questioning your analysis. Again, South Korea was already supporting Ukraine. So now they'll do it directly instead of through a proxy, so what? I'd take millions of artillery rounds from North Korea in exchange for that any day.
I think people ought to be more interested in the decision calculus of the other side; paying more attention decades ago might've been enough to avert what's happening in Ukraine today. Not paying attention and getting high on feelings of righteousness was how WWI happened.
posted by ndr at 4:31 AM on June 24 [1 favorite]
That’s not how World War One broke out. Every party in that conflict was paying too close attention to what everyone else was doing and being paranoid about it. That, coupled with Germany overestimating the capabilities of its armed forces in relation to that of their eventual adversaries, and underestimating their willingness to stand up to Germany, is the one paragraph version of how it started.
Which doesn’t actually sound that dissimilar to how the invasion of Ukraine started, with Russia in the role of Germany. Which isn’t surprising, since wars tend to break out when one party thinks the war is going to be easy to win, and worries that as time passes their advantage will diminish.
posted by Kattullus at 6:13 AM on June 24 [4 favorites]
Which doesn’t actually sound that dissimilar to how the invasion of Ukraine started, with Russia in the role of Germany. Which isn’t surprising, since wars tend to break out when one party thinks the war is going to be easy to win, and worries that as time passes their advantage will diminish.
posted by Kattullus at 6:13 AM on June 24 [4 favorites]
I'd take millions of artillery rounds from North Korea in exchange for that any day.
I shouldn’t have laughed, but I did. It’s just such a funny thing to see written down. I can’t think of a single thing I’d like to receive from Kim Jong-un.
Anyway, it makes me think of a video that’s been circulating the internets recently. I’m sure some here have seen it: A Russian soldier is driving his golf cart somewhere behind the front. Littered along the dirt road: blown out armoured military vehicles, rusted scooby-doo vans, bomb craters, an old mattress. Wrecked vehicle carcasses are simply everywhere, left and right. A lonesome soldier on a dirt bike passes by. 'Our' driver, sporting his big bug-eyed goggles, passes three or four foot soldiers in rags. He passes an old 1980s Renault or Lada, roof chopped off, carrying another ragtag group of men, dusting up a dirt road. The Mad Max Army.
A personal package from Kim Jong-un will be well received, I am sure.
I don’t mean to dismiss the challenge Ukraine is facing or to imply that it’ll continue to be anything but a struggle, it’s a tragedy that they need to defend themselves from this mania. But it is fascinating, what the putinist arguments are these days.
Related: Marcus Keupp (Military Academy at ETH Zürich) was on a video interview (German language, auto-translation seems to be available) about attrition rates in the Russian military and how its affecting their war fighting capabilities.
posted by UN at 6:37 AM on June 24 [4 favorites]
I shouldn’t have laughed, but I did. It’s just such a funny thing to see written down. I can’t think of a single thing I’d like to receive from Kim Jong-un.
Anyway, it makes me think of a video that’s been circulating the internets recently. I’m sure some here have seen it: A Russian soldier is driving his golf cart somewhere behind the front. Littered along the dirt road: blown out armoured military vehicles, rusted scooby-doo vans, bomb craters, an old mattress. Wrecked vehicle carcasses are simply everywhere, left and right. A lonesome soldier on a dirt bike passes by. 'Our' driver, sporting his big bug-eyed goggles, passes three or four foot soldiers in rags. He passes an old 1980s Renault or Lada, roof chopped off, carrying another ragtag group of men, dusting up a dirt road. The Mad Max Army.
A personal package from Kim Jong-un will be well received, I am sure.
I don’t mean to dismiss the challenge Ukraine is facing or to imply that it’ll continue to be anything but a struggle, it’s a tragedy that they need to defend themselves from this mania. But it is fascinating, what the putinist arguments are these days.
Related: Marcus Keupp (Military Academy at ETH Zürich) was on a video interview (German language, auto-translation seems to be available) about attrition rates in the Russian military and how its affecting their war fighting capabilities.
posted by UN at 6:37 AM on June 24 [4 favorites]
Russia's ability to out attrite Ukraine stems from having almost 4 times the population and being able to fire about 5 times more artillery … Russia is estimating to be spending 6% GDP on the war, which is hardly approaching full mobilization.
From the same article:
posted by mazola at 8:24 AM on June 24 [4 favorites]
From the same article:
By staking everything on rising military expenditure, the Kremlin is forcing the economy into the snare of perpetual war. On the one hand, that means it will be increasingly difficult for the state to continue financing the fighting in Ukraine without causing living standards to deteriorate. On the other, if there is a reduction in military spending, it will inevitably lead to a significant structural shock that will take considerable time to overcome. Either way, it will be ordinary Russians who pay the price.That sounds a lot like Germany in WW2. And percentages aside, the Russian GDP is (was?) 2.24 tn USD vs the EU's 16.7 tn USD (add another 25.7 tn for the US).
posted by mazola at 8:24 AM on June 24 [4 favorites]
It's worth noting what they're getting for that supposed 6% (real number is likely much higher):
- barely any gains in Ukraine,
- the loss of hundreds of thousands of men,
- emptying of weapons they had in storage with nothing to replace it,
- an isolated economy and people
- a reputation in the gutter
- loss of their navy in the Black Sea
- much of their weapons industry exposed as ineffective hype,
- American and European weapons industry booming,
- an expansion of NATO
...and so on.
All of this for 6%! I guess there are positives too. Russia has a stronger alliance with North Korea, Belarus and Iran. Unfortunately, China and Vietnam don't even want to properly support Putin here.
Is 6% a good deal to destroy one's own country? Should it be more, less? I'm really not sure.
posted by UN at 11:50 AM on June 24 [6 favorites]
- barely any gains in Ukraine,
- the loss of hundreds of thousands of men,
- emptying of weapons they had in storage with nothing to replace it,
- an isolated economy and people
- a reputation in the gutter
- loss of their navy in the Black Sea
- much of their weapons industry exposed as ineffective hype,
- American and European weapons industry booming,
- an expansion of NATO
...and so on.
All of this for 6%! I guess there are positives too. Russia has a stronger alliance with North Korea, Belarus and Iran. Unfortunately, China and Vietnam don't even want to properly support Putin here.
Is 6% a good deal to destroy one's own country? Should it be more, less? I'm really not sure.
posted by UN at 11:50 AM on June 24 [6 favorites]
Russia's ability to out attrite Ukraine stems from having almost 4 times the population and being able to fire about 5 times more artillery.
What was the population ratio and ratio of artillery pieces between the US military and the NVA in Vietnam or between the Soviet Union and the Afghan Mujahidin?
Russia is fighting a war of choice, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival.
Also, I suspect that South Korea (GDP ~1.76T, about double that of some EU countries which have been big donors to Ukraine) has the potential to supply a lot more assistance to Ukraine than they have up to now if they were motivated to respond to Russia expanding economic ties and assistance to the North Koreans.
Obviously the situation is complex and very dangerous for Ukraine and they absolutely could collapse and be conquered, especially without adequate support from the West. But simplistic analyses of the situation between Russia and Ukraine based on population sizes or just the resources of the two countries without factoring in the effects of Western support, the difficulty of attacking versus defending, and the difference between the motivations of the two countries seem pretty questionable to me.
If the West maintains a united front in providing Ukraine the assistance it needs, including generous aid of air power, armor, and artillery then Russia's long term prospects in Ukraine are pretty bleak.
posted by Reverend John at 1:57 PM on June 24 [7 favorites]
What was the population ratio and ratio of artillery pieces between the US military and the NVA in Vietnam or between the Soviet Union and the Afghan Mujahidin?
Russia is fighting a war of choice, Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival.
Also, I suspect that South Korea (GDP ~1.76T, about double that of some EU countries which have been big donors to Ukraine) has the potential to supply a lot more assistance to Ukraine than they have up to now if they were motivated to respond to Russia expanding economic ties and assistance to the North Koreans.
Obviously the situation is complex and very dangerous for Ukraine and they absolutely could collapse and be conquered, especially without adequate support from the West. But simplistic analyses of the situation between Russia and Ukraine based on population sizes or just the resources of the two countries without factoring in the effects of Western support, the difficulty of attacking versus defending, and the difference between the motivations of the two countries seem pretty questionable to me.
If the West maintains a united front in providing Ukraine the assistance it needs, including generous aid of air power, armor, and artillery then Russia's long term prospects in Ukraine are pretty bleak.
posted by Reverend John at 1:57 PM on June 24 [7 favorites]
Seconding UN's analysis. Russia is spending >= 6% of its GDP to hold onto a whole lotta flattened scorched earth, and that 6% absolutely does not include replacement costs for lost assets as Russia is just ... unable to replace. Early warning AWACS style aircraft, tanks designed after 1975 (possibly 1965), stealth bombers, large warships.
Even if total peace were declared today Russia will continue paying out for a generation in both cash and opportunity costs.
posted by zippy at 5:17 PM on June 24 [5 favorites]
Even if total peace were declared today Russia will continue paying out for a generation in both cash and opportunity costs.
posted by zippy at 5:17 PM on June 24 [5 favorites]
Russia’s arms exports fell by 53 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23 and itTrends in International Arms Transfers, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute [PDF]
accounted for 11 per cent of total global arms exports. It delivered major arms
to 41 states and 1 non-state armed group in 2019–23.
In 2019 the annual volume of Russian arms exports was at a similar level
to that in each of the preceding 20 years. However, the export volumes in
2020, 2021 and 2022 were at much lower levels than in 2019, and in 2023 the
volume was 52 per cent lower than in 2022. Another indication of the decline
of Russia as a global supplier of arms is that whereas 31 states received major
arms from Russia in 2019, only 14 did in 2022 and that number fell to 12 in
2023.
States in Asia and Oceania received 68 per cent of total Russian arms exports
in 2019–23, while Middle Eastern and African states received 13 per cent and
10 per cent respectively. Just under two thirds of Russian arms exports went
to three states in 2019–23: India (34 per cent), China (21 per cent) and Egypt
(7.5 per cent). India was also the largest recipient of Russian arms in 2014–18,
but exports to India decreased by 34 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23,
while exports to China decreased by 39 per cent and to Egypt by 54 per cent.
Algeria and Viet Nam were the third and fourth largest recipients of Russian
arms in 2014–18; however, exports to Algeria (–83 per cent) and Viet Nam
(–91 per cent) dropped significantly between the two periods.
European arms imports nearly double, US and French exports rise, and Russian exports fall sharply
posted by UN at 3:14 AM on June 25 [6 favorites]
ICC issues arrest warrants for Russian officials over alleged Ukraine war crimes: Army chief and ex-minister of defence accused over missile attacks on civilian targets including power plants [The Guardian]
posted by mazola at 12:48 PM on June 25 [2 favorites]
posted by mazola at 12:48 PM on June 25 [2 favorites]
That’s not how World War One broke out. Every party in that conflict was paying too close attention to what everyone else was doing and being paranoid about it. That, coupled with Germany overestimating the capabilities of its armed forces in relation to that of their eventual adversaries, and underestimating their willingness to stand up to Germany, is the one paragraph version of how it started.The common thread to the chain of events leading up to WWI as it happened is that at every turn, the each of the belligerents viewed their own actions as justified, well-intentioned, and defensive and their opponent's as frivolous, provocative, and escalatory. AH sought a decisive military intervention in order to prove they were still a Great Power after being wronged by the assassination of the empire's heir backed by elements of Serbian military intelligence. Russia wanted to cement their reputation as protector of Slavs and their pre-mobilization stiffened Serbian defiance, which in turn fanned domestic nationalist fervor and raised expectations they would fight. The Serbia thought their cause of a Greater Serbia was self-evidently correct and blithely dismissed their own culpability in the assassination. France wanted to demonstrate their resolve and an opportunity to take Germany down a peg after 1870. Germany was convinced there would be war with Russia and wanted to fight while they still had the advantage, before Russia could finish modernization. Great Britain wanted to kick the question of Home Rule down the road by intervening in a continental war. The combined and interlocking choices made narrowed the decision space down the road, which is how the continent ended up with a war that all parties welcomed at the onset and regretted after it was done. If your read is that "WWI happened because Germany was belligerent" then you are missing the trees for the forest. There is a significant body of literature on the logic of escalation, part of it based on WWI, and it was that common understanding on both sides that helped keep the Cold War cold.
From the same article:So take that to the logical conclusion - does that sound like Russia will give up soon or does it sound like they're committed? For reference, a total war economy in WWII is something like 90% spending. Ukraine's spending is about 37% of GDP, which is significant but less than you'd expect if national survival was really on the line. There's no question other countries could outspend Russia, but as to whether they're supplying Ukraine enough to make up the difference, I don't know if that's the case.
By staking everything on rising military expenditure, the Kremlin is forcing the economy into the snare of perpetual war. On the one hand, that means it will be increasingly difficult for the state to continue financing the fighting in Ukraine without causing living standards to deteriorate. On the other, if there is a reduction in military spending, it will inevitably lead to a significant structural shock that will take considerable time to overcome. Either way, it will be ordinary Russians who pay the price.
That sounds a lot like Germany in WW2. And percentages aside, the Russian GDP is (was?) 2.24 tn USD vs the EU's 16.7 tn USD (add another 25.7 tn for the US).
Obviously the situation is complex and very dangerous for Ukraine and they absolutely could collapse and be conquered, especially without adequate support from the West. But simplistic analyses of the situation between Russia and Ukraine based on population sizes or just the resources of the two countries without factoring in the effects of Western support, the difficulty of attacking versus defending, and the difference between the motivations of the two countries seem pretty questionable to me.It works as a first approximation. Ukraine is a neighbor and Russia would say core interest, not like Vietnam or Afghanistan, which were peripheral. The bottleneck in any military is usually people, and they're much harder to replace than materiel. An "even" exchange ratio has to be greater than 3:1 in Ukraine's favor. There's some wiggle room depending on whose estimates you want to use, but it doesn't look like Ukraine has been achieving that. And since it seems like things are currently going in Russia's favor, why would they stop now? I also think many people confuse Russia's interest with the interest of it's decisionmakers. Having made the call, Putin needs some sort of win and will continue, regardless of whether it's good for the country as a whole.
If the West maintains a united front in providing Ukraine the assistance it needs, including generous aid of air power, armor, and artillery then Russia's long term prospects in Ukraine are pretty bleak.
I don’t mean to dismiss the challenge Ukraine is facing or to imply that it’ll continue to be anything but a struggle, it’s a tragedy that they need to defend themselves from this mania. But it is fascinating, what the putinist arguments are these days.If you want to call me a Putinist, just say it instead of sniping passive aggressively. If you were interested in outcomes you'd be looking comparatively. You act as though one can make material outcomes true by merely cheering hard enough, so when somebody disagrees, of course they must be hoping for the opposite.
posted by ndr at 8:41 PM on June 25 [1 favorite]
If you want to call me a Putinist, just say it instead of sniping passive aggressively. If you were interested in outcomes you'd be looking comparatively. You act as though one can make material outcomes true by merely cheering hard enough, so when somebody disagrees, of course they must be hoping for the opposite.
I mean if you're going to write down all of the primary Kremlin talking points in use now: the west risking a world war by supporting Ukraine; Ukraine ending up at the negotiation table, because Russia can keep this going indefinitely; Russia having superior allies like North Korea...why not call those arguments putinist? I don't see the issue.
posted by UN at 12:24 AM on June 26 [2 favorites]
I mean if you're going to write down all of the primary Kremlin talking points in use now: the west risking a world war by supporting Ukraine; Ukraine ending up at the negotiation table, because Russia can keep this going indefinitely; Russia having superior allies like North Korea...why not call those arguments putinist? I don't see the issue.
posted by UN at 12:24 AM on June 26 [2 favorites]
I think it would be better if we could permit people to disagree with the party line without assuming they are fascists.
It is entirely possible to be pessimistic about the war's outcome for Ukraine, or even to be critical of Ukraine or its allies without hoping for Russian victory or supporting Putin.
The war isn't going to turn on how pro-Ukrainian comments are on MetaFilter.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 3:14 AM on June 26
It is entirely possible to be pessimistic about the war's outcome for Ukraine, or even to be critical of Ukraine or its allies without hoping for Russian victory or supporting Putin.
The war isn't going to turn on how pro-Ukrainian comments are on MetaFilter.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 3:14 AM on June 26
The war isn't going to turn on how pro-Ukrainian comments are on MetaFilter.
But in a way it will. Ukraine can succeed if they are supported. International support is contingent on domestic public support. Eroding public support is tactic of Russia and part of their expansive view of hybrid war.
Reading things like this (The West Is Still Oblivious to Russia’s Information War) I think it is important to counter Kremlin talking points when you see them. It doesn't mean everyone is a Putinist, but it is good to check what our ideas are, where they align, and where they might be coming from.
posted by mazola at 8:10 AM on June 26 [5 favorites]
But in a way it will. Ukraine can succeed if they are supported. International support is contingent on domestic public support. Eroding public support is tactic of Russia and part of their expansive view of hybrid war.
Reading things like this (The West Is Still Oblivious to Russia’s Information War) I think it is important to counter Kremlin talking points when you see them. It doesn't mean everyone is a Putinist, but it is good to check what our ideas are, where they align, and where they might be coming from.
posted by mazola at 8:10 AM on June 26 [5 favorites]
So take that to the logical conclusion - does that sound like Russia will give up soon or does it sound like they're committed? For reference, a total war economy in WWII is something like 90% spending. Ukraine's spending is about 37% of GDP, which is significant but less than you'd expect if national survival was really on the line. There's no question other countries could outspend Russia, but as to whether they're supplying Ukraine enough to make up the difference, I don't know if that's the case.
Russia has made an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, attempted to seize its capital, called its government "Nazis" and made clear that one of its war aims is replacing Ukraine's government, repeatedly denied the existence of a legitimate Ukrainian national identity, committed atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol, and other Ukrainian cities under their control, blew up the Kakhovka Dam, illegally annexed the territories it currently occupies and claims further territory that it doesn't currently occupy, all after illegally seizing and annexing Crimea and occupying the Donbas, and has been actively engaged in ethnically cleansing its occupied areas, deporting Ukrainian civilians including children and bringing in Russian citizens to the occupied territories. But you don't think that Ukraine is in a war of national survival because they are spending "just" 37% of their GDP on the war?
I'm sure that Russia is currently highly committed to succeeding in this conflict, and currently the Russian public is still willing to go along with the invasion. I don't doubt that for a second. It also took years for the US public to turn against involvement in Vietnam, and the Russian public to turn against involvement in Afghanistan, and the same for the US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. I suspect it will take several years squandering the national budget and of sons, fathers, husbands, uncles, cousins, and beloved friends going to Ukraine and dying and going and dying over and over before the Russian public as a whole starts to question whether they or their loved ones will be the next to go and be maimed or killed and question for what.
I do agree that up to now the allies of Ukraine haven't been as generous as they can and should be to help Ukraine be victorious in this war. Zaluzhnyi asked for, I believe, about 300 armored vehicles in late 2022 prior to the 2023 offensive, and only received in the neighborhood of 100. I also continue to find it incredible that we haven't blanketed Ukraine with Patriots and other modern air defense systems. Similarly, providing Ukraine with a significant number of modern fighter planes would go a long way to tipping the balance in their favor. I think a lot of the hesitation to be more generous can be attributed to the political resistance of some people in the West to stand up for Ukraine and against Russian imperialist aggression for whatever reason.
I think the best thing any of us can do is to contact our political representatives and encourage them to support Ukraine and give them more aid and resources.
Coming back to the comment that kicked a lot of this off, Peter Zeihan (though I tend to take his analysis with a grain of salt) seems to think that South Korea may significantly increase their aid to Ukraine in the near future in response to the Russian overtures to North Korea.
posted by Reverend John at 11:10 AM on June 26 [3 favorites]
Russia has made an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, attempted to seize its capital, called its government "Nazis" and made clear that one of its war aims is replacing Ukraine's government, repeatedly denied the existence of a legitimate Ukrainian national identity, committed atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol, and other Ukrainian cities under their control, blew up the Kakhovka Dam, illegally annexed the territories it currently occupies and claims further territory that it doesn't currently occupy, all after illegally seizing and annexing Crimea and occupying the Donbas, and has been actively engaged in ethnically cleansing its occupied areas, deporting Ukrainian civilians including children and bringing in Russian citizens to the occupied territories. But you don't think that Ukraine is in a war of national survival because they are spending "just" 37% of their GDP on the war?
I'm sure that Russia is currently highly committed to succeeding in this conflict, and currently the Russian public is still willing to go along with the invasion. I don't doubt that for a second. It also took years for the US public to turn against involvement in Vietnam, and the Russian public to turn against involvement in Afghanistan, and the same for the US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. I suspect it will take several years squandering the national budget and of sons, fathers, husbands, uncles, cousins, and beloved friends going to Ukraine and dying and going and dying over and over before the Russian public as a whole starts to question whether they or their loved ones will be the next to go and be maimed or killed and question for what.
I do agree that up to now the allies of Ukraine haven't been as generous as they can and should be to help Ukraine be victorious in this war. Zaluzhnyi asked for, I believe, about 300 armored vehicles in late 2022 prior to the 2023 offensive, and only received in the neighborhood of 100. I also continue to find it incredible that we haven't blanketed Ukraine with Patriots and other modern air defense systems. Similarly, providing Ukraine with a significant number of modern fighter planes would go a long way to tipping the balance in their favor. I think a lot of the hesitation to be more generous can be attributed to the political resistance of some people in the West to stand up for Ukraine and against Russian imperialist aggression for whatever reason.
I think the best thing any of us can do is to contact our political representatives and encourage them to support Ukraine and give them more aid and resources.
Coming back to the comment that kicked a lot of this off, Peter Zeihan (though I tend to take his analysis with a grain of salt) seems to think that South Korea may significantly increase their aid to Ukraine in the near future in response to the Russian overtures to North Korea.
posted by Reverend John at 11:10 AM on June 26 [3 favorites]
Russia has made an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, attempted to seize its capital, called its government "Nazis" and made clear that one of its war aims is replacing Ukraine's government, repeatedly denied the existence of a legitimate Ukrainian national identity, committed atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol, and other Ukrainian cities under their control, blew up the Kakhovka Dam, illegally annexed the territories it currently occupies and claims further territory that it doesn't currently occupy, all after illegally seizing and annexing Crimea and occupying the Donbas, and has been actively engaged in ethnically cleansing its occupied areas, deporting Ukrainian civilians including children and bringing in Russian citizens to the occupied territories. But you don't think that Ukraine is in a war of national survival because they are spending "just" 37% of their GDP on the war?
Not to mention Russia first struck against Ukrainian sovereignty ten years ago.
posted by grubi at 11:21 AM on June 26 [4 favorites]
Not to mention Russia first struck against Ukrainian sovereignty ten years ago.
posted by grubi at 11:21 AM on June 26 [4 favorites]
Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month
Last week, President Vladimir Putin made an official state visit to the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK) – North Korea, his first for almost a quarter of a century. As part of that visit Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a so-called defense pact in the North Korean capital on June 19.posted by UN at 12:28 PM on June 26 [3 favorites]
The military treaty states: “In the event that any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay.”
In response to that Pyongyang announced early this week that it will be sending troops in the form of a military engineering unit to support Russian forces on the ground in the Donetsk region. The troops are expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as next month.
But in a way it will. Ukraine can succeed if they are supported. International support is contingent on domestic public support. Eroding public support is tactic of Russia and part of their expansive view of hybrid war.
I think for individual people, without a significant platform, trying to frame all our discussions as part of the war effort is needlessly restrictive, and also more than a bit silly.
I think we'd be better off to reject positions on the basis of their correspondence to reality, not who would like us to believe them. If a claim is used as propaganda, let's focus on whether it is true and in context, and not try to guess the motives of the person raising the point.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:31 PM on June 26
I think for individual people, without a significant platform, trying to frame all our discussions as part of the war effort is needlessly restrictive, and also more than a bit silly.
I think we'd be better off to reject positions on the basis of their correspondence to reality, not who would like us to believe them. If a claim is used as propaganda, let's focus on whether it is true and in context, and not try to guess the motives of the person raising the point.
posted by The Manwich Horror at 4:31 PM on June 26
Agreed, and I try not assume motive.
But conversations do matter and some just make you scratch your head (saying in general, not necessarily about anything here).
At the beginning of the Russian invasion, back when I was still on Twitter, a number of known lefties suddenly began spouting the Russian lines, mainly that Ukrainians were Nazis and we shouldn't be supporting Nazis. I don't believe those folks would consider themselves Putinists and I have no idea what their motive was (if any), but I do wonder where they were getting the information that formed their sincerely held beliefs.
posted by mazola at 6:17 PM on June 26 [2 favorites]
But conversations do matter and some just make you scratch your head (saying in general, not necessarily about anything here).
At the beginning of the Russian invasion, back when I was still on Twitter, a number of known lefties suddenly began spouting the Russian lines, mainly that Ukrainians were Nazis and we shouldn't be supporting Nazis. I don't believe those folks would consider themselves Putinists and I have no idea what their motive was (if any), but I do wonder where they were getting the information that formed their sincerely held beliefs.
posted by mazola at 6:17 PM on June 26 [2 favorites]
Ukraine is winnable but not at the current rate of Western support. More importantly, there has been no appetite for an all out Ukrainian win among NATO allies. Instead, their support for Ukraine has been piecemeal, designed to damage Russia rather than give Ukraine what it needs. The trickle-in of Western munitions has given Russia the ability to adapt to each new development. Such as it is, there is no "gamechanger" left in the NATO arsenal. The only way Ukraine can win is with a massive ramp of logistical support from the West, but that just isn't going to happen in the current political climate. The current ramp of European artillery production isn't even enough to meet daily demand!
In my eyes, the most likely end of the war will be Ukraine formally ceding Crimea and at least one region in the Donbass as part of a peace deal with Russia. If history remembers this war at all, it will be as the collective failure of the West to do the right thing when push came against an aggressive dictator. I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I don't think you'll ever hear Ukrainian spoken in Mariupol again. We failed. Now it's just deciding what the world will look like after everyone picks up the pieces.
posted by lock robster at 11:10 PM on June 26 [1 favorite]
In my eyes, the most likely end of the war will be Ukraine formally ceding Crimea and at least one region in the Donbass as part of a peace deal with Russia. If history remembers this war at all, it will be as the collective failure of the West to do the right thing when push came against an aggressive dictator. I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I don't think you'll ever hear Ukrainian spoken in Mariupol again. We failed. Now it's just deciding what the world will look like after everyone picks up the pieces.
posted by lock robster at 11:10 PM on June 26 [1 favorite]
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posted by grubi at 11:15 AM on June 20 [11 favorites]