Stopping the Next Insurrection Starts Down-Ballot
January 10, 2022 8:26 AM Subscribe
The time, place, and plan for perhaps the greatest crime in American history have been identified. We have three years to stop it. ... The size of the threat, combined with the difficulty of addressing it, can feel paralyzing. But just because we can’t do everything, doesn’t mean nothing can be done. There is one achievable chokepoint that would make it nearly impossible for Trump or his heirs to steal the next election: winning key governors’ races. Author and cohost of Pod Save America, Dan Pfeiffer, suggests one key way to save US democracy.
Democrats have a chance to hold the four states we had and pick up Georgia and Arizona too. But it is also possible that Republicans could end 2022 controlling the governorship in all six key battleground states. The Cook Political Report currently rates all six races as “tossups.” The good news is that every one of them is winnable. We have great candidates running in all six races:
Michigan: Governor Gretchen Whitmer is running for reelection;
Wisconsin: Governor Tony Evers is up for reelection;
Nevada: Governor Steve Sisolak is running for a second term;
Pennsylvania: Attorney General Josh Shapiro is currently running unopposed;
Georgia: Stacey Abrams is running for governor again to claim the office denied to her in 2018
Arizona: There are several Democrats running for the nomination, including Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.
If you are looking for a way to channel your anger on this day, you might consider supporting these candidates.
Democrats have a chance to hold the four states we had and pick up Georgia and Arizona too. But it is also possible that Republicans could end 2022 controlling the governorship in all six key battleground states. The Cook Political Report currently rates all six races as “tossups.” The good news is that every one of them is winnable. We have great candidates running in all six races:
Michigan: Governor Gretchen Whitmer is running for reelection;
Wisconsin: Governor Tony Evers is up for reelection;
Nevada: Governor Steve Sisolak is running for a second term;
Pennsylvania: Attorney General Josh Shapiro is currently running unopposed;
Georgia: Stacey Abrams is running for governor again to claim the office denied to her in 2018
Arizona: There are several Democrats running for the nomination, including Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.
If you are looking for a way to channel your anger on this day, you might consider supporting these candidates.
From today's Guardian:
Seven ways Republicans are already undermining the 2024 election
posted by Paul Slade at 8:41 AM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Seven ways Republicans are already undermining the 2024 election
posted by Paul Slade at 8:41 AM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Don’t forget NC’s senate seat where Richard Burr (R) is not running again, so a Dem pickup there is tough but would be huge. I think the R is likely to be former governor Pat McCrory. Cheri Beasley (D) is the former NC Supreme Court Chief Justice and is running. She is also Black and started as a public defender.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:43 AM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by freecellwizard at 8:43 AM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
See also, Ezra Klein's (excellent) new column, Steve Bannon is on to Something.
posted by kaibutsu at 8:52 AM on January 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by kaibutsu at 8:52 AM on January 10, 2022 [7 favorites]
How often do people split tickets for sec state etc? Is the target just to get people to fill those ballots in?
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:53 AM on January 10, 2022
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:53 AM on January 10, 2022
Pennsylvania: Attorney General Josh Shapiro is currently running unopposed
It seems important to clarify that Shapiro is currently unopposed in the Dem primary. There are currently something like 10 to 15 GOP candidates.
Because our state legislature is incredibly gerrymandered, the governor is our only chance to stop laws that don't represent the will of Pennsylvanians. This race is SO important. Shapiro is a good candidate and well worth supporting.
posted by mcduff at 8:55 AM on January 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
It seems important to clarify that Shapiro is currently unopposed in the Dem primary. There are currently something like 10 to 15 GOP candidates.
Because our state legislature is incredibly gerrymandered, the governor is our only chance to stop laws that don't represent the will of Pennsylvanians. This race is SO important. Shapiro is a good candidate and well worth supporting.
posted by mcduff at 8:55 AM on January 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
See also, Ezra Klein's (excellent) new column, Steve Bannon is on to Something.
Is there an "Democratic local/downballot election fund" that one can donate to that targets winnable local elections around the country? Some quick searching didn't turn one up, but if one exists I'd be happy to donate to it.
posted by jedicus at 9:16 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Is there an "Democratic local/downballot election fund" that one can donate to that targets winnable local elections around the country? Some quick searching didn't turn one up, but if one exists I'd be happy to donate to it.
posted by jedicus at 9:16 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Because our state legislature is incredibly gerrymandered, the governor is our only chance to stop laws that don't represent the will of Pennsylvanians. This race is SO important. Shapiro is a good candidate and well worth supporting.
Getting the vote out in 2022 and 2024 in PA is one of the BIG things you can do across so many important things (Senate, House, Governor, Prez Races).
Modeled on the New Georgia Project who did amazing work last cycle and helped flip georgia's senate seats!, the New PA Project works on registering voters and turning them out. Grass-roots, POC-led.
Give them your support!
posted by lalochezia at 9:22 AM on January 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
Is there an "Democratic local/downballot election fund" that one can donate to that targets winnable local elections around the country? Some quick searching didn't turn one up, but if one exists I'd be happy to donate to it.
Pinboard's "Great Slate" was an experiment in this, I don't think it ended up turning out doing much beyond separating a lot of tech workers with aspirations of reformist change from their money (and getting them onto resold email lists for years to come).
Not that that precludes anybody else from trying it, of course, but the issues that project ran into would be worth learning from for the future.
posted by CrystalDave at 9:32 AM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Pinboard's "Great Slate" was an experiment in this, I don't think it ended up turning out doing much beyond separating a lot of tech workers with aspirations of reformist change from their money (and getting them onto resold email lists for years to come).
Not that that precludes anybody else from trying it, of course, but the issues that project ran into would be worth learning from for the future.
posted by CrystalDave at 9:32 AM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
If anyone has a non-pay walled link to the Ezra Klein column, I would be most grateful
posted by Bella Donna at 9:32 AM on January 10, 2022
posted by Bella Donna at 9:32 AM on January 10, 2022
See also, Ezra Klein's (excellent) new column, Steve Bannon is on to Something.
That is a good piece, but it's nothing new. People rightly point to the problems of gerrymandering, voter suppression laws, etc., but how did the Republicans get in the position of being able to pass those things?
By absolutely curb-stomping Democrats in state and local elections over the last 30+ years. It really is baffling that Democrats just don't seem to care all that much about non-federal elections while Republicans zealously pursue everything from dog catcher to governor. Has there been a good analysis on why this happened?
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:33 AM on January 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
That is a good piece, but it's nothing new. People rightly point to the problems of gerrymandering, voter suppression laws, etc., but how did the Republicans get in the position of being able to pass those things?
By absolutely curb-stomping Democrats in state and local elections over the last 30+ years. It really is baffling that Democrats just don't seem to care all that much about non-federal elections while Republicans zealously pursue everything from dog catcher to governor. Has there been a good analysis on why this happened?
posted by star gentle uterus at 9:33 AM on January 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Do you have a source on resold email lists? I contributed to that slate and I also contributed to some others through Act Blue. I have only ever gotten follow up email from the campaigns I contributed to.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:35 AM on January 10, 2022
posted by Bella Donna at 9:35 AM on January 10, 2022
Barack Obama has been criticized for not focusing on building the Democratic Party apparatus and candidate pipeline at state and local levels.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:38 AM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by PhineasGage at 9:38 AM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Pinboard's "Great Slate" was an experiment in this, I don't think it ended up turning out doing much beyond separating a lot of tech workers with aspirations of reformist change from their money (and getting them onto resold email lists for years to come).
Yeah, pinboard's postmortem on the Great Slate & State Slate - (an amazing effort BTW) was brutal.
From the horses mouth:
" The biggest lesson, which we heard from every candidate, was that running in a Presidential year was nothing like running in a midterm. Having Trump on the ballot nationalized the election in a way that made it almost impossible for House candidates to break through—it was not Alyse Galvin's face shown in attack ads in Alaska, but Nancy Pelosi's."
He goes into great detail about all the things the great and state slate did, how they worked from the ground up in nominally competitive districts, and how they were utterly swamped by national level forces.
This (2022) is an off-cycle election, so there may be hope locally.
One thing he says is: don't give money to politicians! (After raising millions for politicians!).
This is why grassroots (not DCC/DCCC/DNCC/candidate led!) capacity building and voter registration and engaging previously unengaged voters is so vital NOW. If we wait till 2024, we'll be toast.
posted by lalochezia at 9:55 AM on January 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
I think the R is likely to be former governor Pat McCrory.
Which would probably be good, because people in North Carolina really hate Pat McCrory. When I was doing recount observations in here in 2016 the number of votes for Roy Cooper (current Dem NC governor) and Donald Trump was astounding. It's a different world now, but I would never underestimate how much people here dislike McCrory.
Crooked Media has a No Off Years program/fund focused on early voter registration and grass-roots organizing support.
posted by jeoc at 10:17 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Which would probably be good, because people in North Carolina really hate Pat McCrory. When I was doing recount observations in here in 2016 the number of votes for Roy Cooper (current Dem NC governor) and Donald Trump was astounding. It's a different world now, but I would never underestimate how much people here dislike McCrory.
Crooked Media has a No Off Years program/fund focused on early voter registration and grass-roots organizing support.
posted by jeoc at 10:17 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
I give monthly to the Black Male Voter Project and encourage you all to as well.
Also, if you have the free time to write 5 postcards from time to time, there's Postcards to Voters. You can write as few as 5 and as many as you want, and they go back and forth between special elections and an ongoing voter registration drive they are doing in Florida. You can pick and choose which races you write for. You can design your own postcards or buy theirs for basically cost.
posted by joannemerriam at 10:19 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Also, if you have the free time to write 5 postcards from time to time, there's Postcards to Voters. You can write as few as 5 and as many as you want, and they go back and forth between special elections and an ongoing voter registration drive they are doing in Florida. You can pick and choose which races you write for. You can design your own postcards or buy theirs for basically cost.
posted by joannemerriam at 10:19 AM on January 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think the idea of a blanket ban on donating money to politicians is bullshit. From Indivisible's Practical Guide for Winning Elections: For many years before the 2016 election, Republicans—and conservative Tea Party activists in particular—had been building power by winning elections at all levels of government. From local school boards and state legislatures to Congress and eventually the Oval Office, the Tea Party effectively stopped progressive legislation and got in the driver’s seat to push their hateful policies.
The racist, sexist, patriarchal fucks who run and/or support the Republicans have been working to erode democracy and establish themselves as the permanent party for at least 40 years. Lee Atwater was active in the 1980s and beyond.
Also, Beginning in the early 1980s, when it was not exactly cool to be a conservative law student, a small group of students started a club, named in honor of The Federalist Papers, where they could safely discuss their right-of-center views. Fast-forward 40 years and six of the nine sitting Supreme Court Justices are current or former members of that club.
If we are going to save democracy, we cannot try something like the Great Slate & State Slate (which I supported, and which I know was tons of work) for one or two election cycles and then go home. Moreover, some of those races were pretty high up in the election chain. We need to go after those races, and we also need to adopt the Republican strategy of running candidates for every damn opening and to do it again and again and again, as illustrated in the Ezra Klein column linked to above. Nothing in that column may be news and yet, the Democrats as a party do not seem to be following this strategy. I hope progressive candidates will pick up that slack and win, even if they don't win as progressives but as candidates who simply give a shit.
Many thanks to the MeFite who sent me a link to the article, which includes this:
“If you want to fight for the future of American democracy, you shouldn’t spend all day talking about the future of American democracy,” Wikler said. “These local races that determine the mechanics of American democracy are the ventilation shaft in the Republican death star. These races get zero national attention. They hardly get local attention. Turnout is often lower than 20 percent. That means people who actually engage have a superpower. You, as a single dedicated volunteer, might be able to call and knock on the doors of enough voters to win a local election.” Or you can simply win one yourself.
Local candidates need money. State candidates need money. If you support a candidate and you can afford it, I think you should give them money. I do, and I barely squeak by. Maybe that is crazy but I don't think that all candidates should have to be wealthy in order to run.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:27 AM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
The racist, sexist, patriarchal fucks who run and/or support the Republicans have been working to erode democracy and establish themselves as the permanent party for at least 40 years. Lee Atwater was active in the 1980s and beyond.
Also, Beginning in the early 1980s, when it was not exactly cool to be a conservative law student, a small group of students started a club, named in honor of The Federalist Papers, where they could safely discuss their right-of-center views. Fast-forward 40 years and six of the nine sitting Supreme Court Justices are current or former members of that club.
If we are going to save democracy, we cannot try something like the Great Slate & State Slate (which I supported, and which I know was tons of work) for one or two election cycles and then go home. Moreover, some of those races were pretty high up in the election chain. We need to go after those races, and we also need to adopt the Republican strategy of running candidates for every damn opening and to do it again and again and again, as illustrated in the Ezra Klein column linked to above. Nothing in that column may be news and yet, the Democrats as a party do not seem to be following this strategy. I hope progressive candidates will pick up that slack and win, even if they don't win as progressives but as candidates who simply give a shit.
Many thanks to the MeFite who sent me a link to the article, which includes this:
“If you want to fight for the future of American democracy, you shouldn’t spend all day talking about the future of American democracy,” Wikler said. “These local races that determine the mechanics of American democracy are the ventilation shaft in the Republican death star. These races get zero national attention. They hardly get local attention. Turnout is often lower than 20 percent. That means people who actually engage have a superpower. You, as a single dedicated volunteer, might be able to call and knock on the doors of enough voters to win a local election.” Or you can simply win one yourself.
Local candidates need money. State candidates need money. If you support a candidate and you can afford it, I think you should give them money. I do, and I barely squeak by. Maybe that is crazy but I don't think that all candidates should have to be wealthy in order to run.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:27 AM on January 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Oops, I should have noted that the Great Slate raised money over several years. I think it started in 2017. So apologies for suggesting that it was a one-off but I stand by my general position. We need to work our asses off to win as many elections as possible in the US, local, county, state, and national and then keep coming back to fight year after year after year if we want to avoid future insurrections and even deadlier tomfoolery.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:31 AM on January 10, 2022
posted by Bella Donna at 10:31 AM on January 10, 2022
You, as a single dedicated volunteer, might be able to call and knock on the doors of enough voters to win a local election.
I wrote and hand-crafted 1,000 postcards for a candidate for city council who won in a special election by 200 votes. I don't think she won just because of me but it's impossible to know and I think I made a difference.
posted by joannemerriam at 10:37 AM on January 10, 2022 [19 favorites]
I wrote and hand-crafted 1,000 postcards for a candidate for city council who won in a special election by 200 votes. I don't think she won just because of me but it's impossible to know and I think I made a difference.
posted by joannemerriam at 10:37 AM on January 10, 2022 [19 favorites]
Modeled on the New Georgia Project who did amazing work last cycle and helped flip georgia's senate seats!, the New PA Project works on registering voters and turning them out. Grass-roots, POC-led.
Give them your support!
I wholeheartedly second lalochezia on this. The New Pennsylvania Project is the real-deal. They've got the connections, the strategy and the people to make a real difference. Please consider donating to them.
posted by mcduff at 10:40 AM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Give them your support!
I wholeheartedly second lalochezia on this. The New Pennsylvania Project is the real-deal. They've got the connections, the strategy and the people to make a real difference. Please consider donating to them.
posted by mcduff at 10:40 AM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
As an illustration of what the Klein column is fighting against, here's a description of one of the Bannon types (a three percenter) winning the election.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:16 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:16 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
All i can say is that every Republican out there is beginning for money from the turtle to Pompeo (for his GOP PAC) right on down. I can say that because somehow, I ended up on some Republican email list (apparently because I "subscribed"--which as a Canadian who does not support Republican policies, I certainly did not) and i can't get off (despite repeated attempts to unsubscribe). Now, multiple times per day I get Republicans begging for money (it started with Mitch asking for an emergency US$10), crying about the horrors Biden is inflicting upon your country, wailing about how crime is going way, way up, etc.
Now this had only been going on for about a week. I can't imagine how people who actually support the party cope with it. Seriously. If a party I ever supported sent me this much junk mail and this much marketing and wouldn't let me get off the list, I'd vote against them as a deliberate action, no matter how much I agreed with their policies.
posted by sardonyx at 12:28 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Now this had only been going on for about a week. I can't imagine how people who actually support the party cope with it. Seriously. If a party I ever supported sent me this much junk mail and this much marketing and wouldn't let me get off the list, I'd vote against them as a deliberate action, no matter how much I agreed with their policies.
posted by sardonyx at 12:28 PM on January 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
sardonyx, the Dems do the same. I am inundated with emails either asking for money directly, or inviting me to fill out a survey to share my views which ends with a donation request which appears to make it impossible to give your opinion if you don't donate, which I think is particularly poisonous, but presumably it works for them.
I made a filter to put any email with the word "unsubscribe" in it in a folder marked as read, which means most of these I don't see anymore.
posted by joannemerriam at 2:05 PM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
I made a filter to put any email with the word "unsubscribe" in it in a folder marked as read, which means most of these I don't see anymore.
posted by joannemerriam at 2:05 PM on January 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
How often do people split tickets for sec state etc?
WA state had a D governor for 36 years and an R sec of state for 56. It only doesn't have an R sec of state now because she went to work for the presidential administration.
In the last race, the D governor got 56.56% of the vote(against a comically unqualified clown running on pure culture war backwash) and the R sec of state got 53.61%.
posted by StarkRoads at 2:11 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
WA state had a D governor for 36 years and an R sec of state for 56. It only doesn't have an R sec of state now because she went to work for the presidential administration.
In the last race, the D governor got 56.56% of the vote(against a comically unqualified clown running on pure culture war backwash) and the R sec of state got 53.61%.
posted by StarkRoads at 2:11 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
joannemerriam
I did create a filter based on the email hosting site's address, and am using that to send them to my spam filter. It's just annoying that I have to do that. There should be a way to unsubscribe that is enforceable. Also, I really can't believe the volume of messages that are being sent out. I've already had five today, and I'm sure more will be hitting my inbox this evening. It's ridiculous.
posted by sardonyx at 2:44 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
I did create a filter based on the email hosting site's address, and am using that to send them to my spam filter. It's just annoying that I have to do that. There should be a way to unsubscribe that is enforceable. Also, I really can't believe the volume of messages that are being sent out. I've already had five today, and I'm sure more will be hitting my inbox this evening. It's ridiculous.
posted by sardonyx at 2:44 PM on January 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
sardonyx, I agree, it's ridiculous and alienating and I'm surprised it's an effective strategy. They all seem to come from slightly different emails so it's probably within the letter of the law but hoooo boy it is not in the spirit.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:15 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by joannemerriam at 7:15 AM on January 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
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posted by Bella Donna at 8:28 AM on January 10, 2022 [7 favorites]