How Al-qaeda is like boy scouts

December 5, 2014 12:30 PM

"His breakthrough insight was that the best terror cells work a lot like a big nonprofit group. Like the Boy Scouts of America." From studying the scouts, he determined the best way to stop terrorists is to target their bureaucrats – not top leaders. “The reason I like the Boy Scouts,” Atkins said in an interview, “is they face a lot of the same management challenges that al-Qaeda does.”

“Killing bin Laden was big, symbolically,” Atkins said. “But continually wiping out accountants and No. 3 guys and operations guys and public affairs guys is a lot more effective.”

Both groups have a lot of motivated but relatively unskilled volunteers, he writes in his paper, “Boy Scouts, Bureaucracy, and Counternetwork Targeting.” Their desired goals can be hard to quantify, especially in the eyes of their donors.

“Perhaps the most intriguing similarity,” he writes, “has been a shared dependence on a very complicated relationship with a variety of constituencies or stakeholders.”

As per the Harvard study linked above, the effects of leadership decapitation are time dependent. A terrorist group whose leader has been decapitated in the first year of the group's existence is more than eight times as likely to end as a nondecapitated group. The effects diminish by 50 percent after ten years, and after twenty years, leadership decapitation may have no effect on the group's mortality rate.

posted by TheLittlePrince (43 comments total)

So let me see if I have this straight: if we'd have taken B-P out earlier, we could have nipped this scourge in the bud?
posted by scruss at 12:39 PM on December 5, 2014 [10 favorites]

The tactics he recommends are awful and counterproductive and mirror the logic of the terrorists themselves. There is no meaningful difference morally between murdering Al Queada's accountants and HR staff and crashing a plane into the pentagon, especially considering the fact that there's no way to drop a bomb on an accountant without killing a lot of innocent people.
posted by empath at 12:42 PM on December 5, 2014 [16 favorites]

Well...they're both conservative quasi-religious, quasi-military organizations harkening back to a past that never existed. Makes sense.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:43 PM on December 5, 2014 [21 favorites]

Which isn't to say that techniques targeting the ability of the bureaucracy to function aren't useful, but I'm thinking more spying, infiltration, cyber attacks, seizing assets and so on.
posted by empath at 12:44 PM on December 5, 2014 [3 favorites]

Don't see the parallel, except that they're both organisations.
posted by Segundus at 12:44 PM on December 5, 2014

There is no meaningful difference morally or legally between murdering Al Queada's accountants and HR staff and crashing a plane into the pentagon,

I'm pretty sure there is.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:45 PM on December 5, 2014 [31 favorites]

Also, see the Phoenix Program. This type of tactical targeting of the infrastructure has been commonplace in warfare since times immemorial.
posted by jsavimbi at 12:47 PM on December 5, 2014

I kind of wish that the cultural and religious lens was discarded in favour of comparing Al Qaeda and ISIL with the mafia.
posted by Nevin at 12:48 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

Also, see the Phoenix Program. This type of tactical targeting of the infrastructure has been commonplace in warfare since times immemorial.


I was just going to mention that my grandfather worked for the Phoenix Program in an administrative role. With this logic, a vietnamese 'terrorist' would have been perfectly justified in blowing up his car as he went to the market.
posted by empath at 12:52 PM on December 5, 2014 [1 favorite]

So Al Qaeda mostly hangs out in the woods to play with knives and fire? Or are people implying that Boy Scouts are not what they were when I was a teenager?
posted by graymouser at 12:54 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

Yes
posted by wotsac at 12:57 PM on December 5, 2014 [3 favorites]

Well, I don't know how long it's been since you were a teenager but nowadays the Mormons are a huge force in the Boy Scouts.
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:59 PM on December 5, 2014 [1 favorite]

2013: $0.60 for cake: Al-Qaida records every expense
2008: Al Qaeda crosses the Ts in 'terrorist' - Declassified papers reveal the group isn't immune from petty bureaucracy.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 1:01 PM on December 5, 2014 [3 favorites]

So Al Qaeda mostly hangs out in the woods to play with knives and fire?

And smoke weed.*

*Not me, those other "cooler" scouts. I was to busy playing Magic the Gathering.
posted by drezdn at 1:05 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

In two pages mixing flowery religious terms with itemized complaints, the Egyptian boss accused the militant of misappropriating cash, a car, sick leave, research papers and an air conditioner during "an austerity situation" for the network

They get sick leave?
posted by drezdn at 1:07 PM on December 5, 2014

Wait AQ has health benefits?

oh, FFS.
posted by el io at 1:12 PM on December 5, 2014 [11 favorites]

Wait AQ has health benefits?

oh, FFS.

On the bright side, if you* tell your employer that they are worse than al-Qaeda it won't be hyperbole. But they will still fire you (because they are worse than al-Qaeda and you live in an at-will State).

*you in general, I'm not referring to anyone in particular.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 1:22 PM on December 5, 2014 [4 favorites]

Cue obvious joke about the retirement plan.
posted by George_Spiggott at 1:23 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

leotrotsky: " There is no meaningful difference morally or legally between murdering Al Queada's accountants and HR staff and crashing a plane into the pentagon,

I'm pretty sure there is."

Ya know - based on your contributions, I'm beginning to doubt you're *actually* Trotsky!
posted by symbioid at 1:29 PM on December 5, 2014 [6 favorites]

Middle management. It's ALWAYS middle management.
posted by symbioid at 1:33 PM on December 5, 2014 [4 favorites]

"No, I didn't say the staff meetings are boring; I said if you attend one the incessant droning will be the death of you."
posted by George_Spiggott at 1:34 PM on December 5, 2014 [26 favorites]

The second link is to an article by Bryan C. Price though it is linked in the statement '“Killing bin Laden was big, symbolically,” Atkins said."

I like the second linked article in as much as I like reading about these things.
posted by vapidave at 1:48 PM on December 5, 2014

So the Golgafrincham Ark Fleet, Ship B is the true key to defeating terrorism?
posted by blue_beetle at 1:52 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

This, again, is like the Boy Scouts: If he wanted to gum up their operation, Atkins said, he’d target fundraisers, lobbyists and local leaders who have a lot of pull with churches who support the group.

Some fundraisers and lobbyists, at least, could be neutralized through diplomatic or political pressure, rather than through physical means, if our government had the will to do so. Didn't the WikiLeaks cable from a few years ago show that most of AQ's funding was coming from a few wealthy donors in Saudi Arabia?
posted by KGMoney at 2:02 PM on December 5, 2014

So at al-Qaeda camps, late-night games of truth-or-dare played in the whispery wee hours when all the grown-ups are already asleep sometimes lead to circle jerks and mutual underage shenanigans?

I am totally in the wrong terrorist cell.
posted by sonascope at 2:18 PM on December 5, 2014 [1 favorite]

Well, the way to destroy ISIS then is to offer their middle management better jobs with better benefit packages in other organizations. Then ISIS will be forced to promote the less qualified junior members of the team and, eventually, it will be bogged down in its own bureaucracy.

On the other hand, the USA would likely prove incapable of offering better jobs.

Hmm.

Say, what do they pay?
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:22 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

Just in case the DHS is monitoring, I kid! I kid! If I'm going to work for an organization that suppresses and murders innocentss, there are plenty of American state and federal government law enforcement organizations I can join. USA! USA!
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:24 PM on December 5, 2014 [7 favorites]

The second link is to an article by Bryan C. Price though it is linked in the statement '“Killing bin Laden was big, symbolically,” Atkins said."

That squishing a single other human being was and continues to be such a major goal and triumph of the War On Terror remains incredibly depressing and disturbing. Depurbing. No, distressing, that works.
posted by JHarris at 2:31 PM on December 5, 2014 [3 favorites]

That squishing a single other human being was and continues to be such a major goal and triumph of the War On Terror remains incredibly depressing and disturbing.

I think going after OBL is about the one single thing that has been done right since 9/11. By all our best information it was his idea, not just to kill lots of Americans but to cause maximum economic damage with minimal investment. He sold this plan to the organization (which he is credited with founding) on the basis of that kind of cold logic and if he had been brought to the US he would have been convicted of murder just as readily as Charles Manson was, and for exactly the same reason.

Rachel Maddow once had a commentary on one of his videos, where he was enumerating the billions of dollars we'd spent becuase of his well-placed sub USD$50K investment, and she pointed out that to him this was the endgame. The thousands of people who died, including apparently some of the hijackers who didn't know it was a suicide mission, were collateral damage. If ever there was a person who really did need squishing, it was Bin Laden.
posted by localroger at 3:11 PM on December 5, 2014 [2 favorites]

Like nearly every article since the 9/11 attacks, this one's about the supply side ("what's the best way to kill terrorists") rather than the demand side ("how can we mitigate some of the factors that drive people to terrorism"). We'd be better of moving towards:

1. Reduce or cut ties with autocratic, undemocratic Middle Eastern regimes (particularly since we hypocritically tell everyone we love democracy and freedom)
2. A two-state solution to Israel/Palestine that guarantees both countries' security
3. Stop unilateral interventions in Middle East conflicts and support more international involvement
4. Know our limitations

posted by kirkaracha at 3:37 PM on December 5, 2014 [5 favorites]

I think fantasies like this Boy Scout one really serve to underline the complete moral failure of the military response to terrorism. Like someone mentioned upthread, they're more like the mafia. I have the same reaction to this idea that I did to the recent celebrations over the killing of bin Laden: not going to every length possible to see them stand trial was a tragically lost opportunity to reinvest in the system they were trying to destroy in the first place.
posted by feloniousmonk at 3:50 PM on December 5, 2014 [12 favorites]

" not going to every length possible to see them stand trial was a tragically lost opportunity to reinvest in the system they were trying to destroy in the first place."

This. Always and forever this.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 3:59 PM on December 5, 2014 [3 favorites]

Atkins is the only thing standing in the way of the Boy Scouts going rogue.
posted by jason_steakums at 4:16 PM on December 5, 2014

A two-state solution to Israel/Palestine that guarantees both countries' security

And ponies and ice cream for everyone!
posted by acb at 5:40 PM on December 5, 2014 [1 favorite]

CONCLUSION

Leadership decapitation may have negative short-term consequences, but it significantly increases terrorist group mortality rates. In this way, leadership decapitation is a lot like chemotherapy. Although its short-term side effects may be unpleasant, chemotherapy is extremely effective against most cancers in the long term. Similar to oncologists forced to make difficult treatment decisions for cancer patients, political leaders must weigh the short- and long-term costs and benefits of leadership decapitation in their counterterrorism decisionmaking.

sickening. and all the more so because it's so stupid.
posted by ennui.bz at 8:46 PM on December 5, 2014

The calculus of violence: horrible when it fails, horrible when it works.
posted by Chitownfats at 1:51 AM on December 6, 2014

Interesting; Al Quaeda is like the Boy Scouts and ISIS is like General Motors. I guess it's just a matter of time before someone writes a book, Leadership Secrets of Islamic Terrorists, and we see it carried everywhere by ambitious young middle management types.
posted by TedW at 4:46 AM on December 6, 2014 [3 favorites]

You don't need to kill all the accountants; you need to kill the good ones and leave the incompetents alone.

See Stolypin- had he not been assassinated, the Romanov's might have weathered the transition to modernity.
posted by jenkinsEar at 7:16 AM on December 6, 2014

TedW - dammed if I can find it right now, but I've got the Genghis Khan Guide to Business somewhere...
posted by DancingYear at 10:50 AM on December 6, 2014 [1 favorite]

Abbas Milani: The Rise of ISIS and the Changing Landscape of the Middle East

I heard some of this last night. Milani talks a lot about the outstanding but overlooked organizational capabilities of the Islamists who overthrew the Shah and defeated the Marxists in the Iranian Revolution, of the Muslim Brotherhood, and of Daesh and Al Qaeda.
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:50 AM on December 6, 2014

/Like nearly every article since the 9/11 attacks, this one's about the supply side ("what's the best way to kill terrorists") rather than the demand side ("how can we mitigate some of the factors that drive people to terrorism"). We'd be better of moving towards:
Reduce or cut ties with autocratic, undemocratic Middle Eastern regimes

OBL and the highjackers didn't crash the planes into the buildings because they were angry with American support for autocracy in Saudi Arabia.

If SA had been a democratic state it wouldn't have prevented the attacks.

These people were not concerned with social justice. They wanted power.
posted by Nevin at 12:01 PM on December 6, 2014

DancingYear, I was thinking of Atilla the Hun, but you obviously see where I'm coming from.
posted by TedW at 2:52 PM on December 6, 2014

To be fair, I bet the Boy Scouts will let gays in first.
posted by klangklangston at 5:32 PM on December 6, 2014 [1 favorite]