Demography is Destiny?

June 26, 2015 10:23 AM

Suzy Khimm, The New Republic: The Obama Gap - "Favorable demographics and a charismatic leader aren’t enough to make a majority party. A case study in electoral failure from Florida."

Pew Research Center: A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation - "Sharp Differences by Race, Gender, Generation, Education"
As GOP celebrates win, no sign of narrowing gender, age gaps

RJ Eskow, Huffington Post: Demographics Won't Save the Democrats -- Unless They Change
Whit Ayres, Wall Street Journal: A Daunting Demographic Challenge for the GOP in 2016

LA Times: Demographic trends favor Democrats, but GOP could still win in 2016

Nate Cohn,The New York Times: Arkansas, a Demographic Challenge for Democrats

posted by the man of twists and turns (3 comments total)

Any analysis of Democratic versus Republican chances in 2016 that doesn't discuss the influence of gerrymandering (e.g. Florida's a mess) is missing the point. She talks a bit about it as part of the DNC's strategy for 2020 but treats it as an aside. I think that's a mistake.
posted by Anonymous at 11:53 AM on June 26, 2015

Republicans also aren't really in conflict with themselves the way Democrats are. Democrats can't effectively counter the Republican's demonizing the lazy poor and "entitled" with an accurate narrative about who's really taking you to the cleaners, because they need money to win too; and in this age of limitless funding and rising income disparity, there's only one place to get and it isn't from me and you. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are trying to be the exceptions to this and I'd like to be hopeful.
posted by George_Spiggott at 12:44 PM on June 26, 2015 [6 favorites]

It discusses gerrymandering - the GOP has been putting a priority on municipal and statewide offices, with money and manpower, and using that to rig the game. The Democrats have no strategy at all at the local level, and Obama has pulled the teeth out of the establishment Democratic machines nationwide and replaced it with a highly organized campaign infrastructure accountable to pretty much him alone. Great for him, sucks for anyone else on the ballot he isn't on.

Hillary might fix this, as she operates from within the party more than Obama does, but it needs to be fixed soon. Millennials need to be energized, politicized and herded to the polls each and every time someone sets up a voting booth in their district. The base needs to be engaged at the local level.

If that doesn't happen, the GOP will continue to dominate at all levels of government apart from the Presidency and maybe the senate on good days.

There's talk in Ohio and Michigan of altering the law to split the electoral votes along congressional districts to gerrymander even the Presidency.
posted by Slap*Happy at 1:05 PM on June 26, 2015 [6 favorites]