the oscars are coming.....

February 26, 2016 10:47 AM

Screen Junkies have released their Honest Trailers Oscar Clip. They are also having an Oscar party at their YouTube channel. (previously)
posted by valkane (11 comments total)

"Anohni, the first-ever transgender singer nominated for Best Original Song Oscar for her performance of "Manta Ray" in the documentary Racing Extinction, is, like many others, not attending Sunday's Academy Awards. Her reason is pretty straightforward: "I will not be lulled into submission with a few more well manufactured, feel-good ballads and a bit of good old fashioned T. and A."
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:50 AM on February 26, 2016 [3 favorites]

Kind of disappointed they didn't just quietly do all footage from The Room instead of Room.
posted by ckape at 11:30 AM on February 26, 2016 [3 favorites]

Fury Road won't win the two big nominations it got (picture and director). Some other...mediocre...nominee will, to be forgotten in 2-3 years pretty much completely while Fury Road will ride into the consciousness to become a classic, shiny and chrome.
posted by Windigo at 11:37 AM on February 26, 2016 [7 favorites]

WITNESS!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 1:05 PM on February 26, 2016 [4 favorites]

The building I work in has an Oscars pool, so I used the betting markets as interpreted on Oddschecker to generate the following predictions:

Picture: The Revenant
Director: The Revenant
Actress: Brie Larson (Room)
Actor: Leo (The Revenant)
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Supporting Actor: Sly (Creed)
Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
Animated Feature: Inside Out
Documentary Feature: Amy
posted by sparklemotion at 3:04 PM on February 26, 2016

^^ Sparklemotion has the definitive crib sheet for anyone looking to win their local "guess the Oscars" contest. If there are any deviations, it will likely be that Kate Winslet wins for Steve Jobs or that Ruffalo, Rylance, or Bale pulls it off in the Supporting Actor category. (Mark Rylance really was fantastic in that movie.) Those would be surprises, though. And anything else would be a big surprise, save maybe Spotlight for Best Picture since it was considered the front-runner for many months.

I liked The Revenant OK but I think almost everything else on the Best Picture list was better. I'm pulling for George Miller to get a surprise win for Mad Max: Fury Road (well, to be honest I'm pulling for Fury Road to win everything) but I sure wouldn't put any money on it.
posted by Mothlight at 9:03 PM on February 26, 2016

Going by the bookies is the #1 tip for Oscar predicting. The #2 (and this comes from going through Oscar office sweepstakes at a production house whose major business was making movie trailers) is to remember the Academy is dominated by old white actors, and they really like capital-A Acting and movies and directors and cinematography and screenplays that are built to show off Acting.
posted by Hogshead at 4:20 AM on February 27, 2016

I would bet against Leo for actor, and would pick Cartel Land for docu, but I think that's a solid list.
posted by codacorolla at 5:20 AM on February 27, 2016

Sparklemotion's sheet is hot, although I don't think Sly wins.

Do not forget that as mentioned above the Academy is dominated by old white people, it's never, ever about just this year. Way too many awards are given out as an almost sympathy vote from a previous year.
posted by Sphinx at 8:58 AM on February 27, 2016

Sparklemotion's list proved remarkably strong. Only two misses, and as noted above supporting-actor was a crapshoot this year.
posted by Hogshead at 3:59 AM on February 29, 2016 [1 favorite]

It was a little disappointing to miss the big one, but of the best picture nominees that I saw the revenant was the most "Oscary" so I decided not to second guess the bookies.

I'm happy that Rylance won for bridge of spies, since he was the best part of that movie.

This was fun this year, I look forward to refining my system for next year.
posted by sparklemotion at 6:53 AM on February 29, 2016