The aftermath of the attempted Turkish coup of July 15, 2016
August 15, 2016 1:52 PM Subscribe
A month ago, forces loyal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan quashed a coup attempt by the some members of the military that began on the evening of July 15, 2016, and ended with at least 290 dead and more than 1,400 injured. Over the month since the attempted uprising, more than 23,000 people have been detained and nearly 82,000 have been suspended or removed from their jobs. Amidst the series of dismissals and detainments and the five straight days of rallies by Erdoğan supporters, Erdoğan declared a three-month long state of emergency. What it's like living in Turkey after the failed coup: pride and fear one month on.
Just over a year ago, it was argued that Turkey’s democratic tradition is often under-estimated and under-appreciated, as other countries were still dealing with instability in the years since Arab Spring. Now five years on, many say that corruption has increased in nine countries and territories in the region (least in Morocco, most in Lebanon), and Amnesty International reports that human rights are under attack in most of the Arab Spring countries. After four coups since 1960, Turkey seemed stable and was considered a regional model for democracy.
But Turkey's elevated status was reconsidered Erdoğan's Turkey "became embroiled in the regional conflicts rather than an arbiter of them," and the brutal police repression used against the anti-government protests in Istanbul and across Turkey coupled with Erdoğan’s choice of denigrating language toward the protestors raised doubts about the quality of Turkey’s democracy. That was in 2013, and earlier this year some saw the signs for a military coup (introduction only, full article paywalled). They were right, as the Peace at Home Council attempted to take back their country on the night of July 15, 2016, as declared on Turkish TV, citing undermined the separation of powers, failed efforts to combat growing terrorism, bureaucratic corruption, and failed judicial system. And then there was the fighting.
In the following turmoil, those who can leave the country are evaluating their options and pursuing migration out of the county. Turkey's central bank has cut interest rates, its fifth consecutive month of monetary easing, days after a failed attempt at a military coup in the country, but Moody's Investors Service has today placed under review for downgrade the ratings of 17 Turkish banks following a failed coup attempt last week in Turkey and the related placement of the Turkish sovereign rating under review for downgrade, and S&P Global Ratings lowered Turkey’s sovereign debt rating, warning that rising political uncertainty after [the failed] coup attempt could scare off investment and undermine fiscal management.
A few short days after the coup attempt, flights resumed at Istanbul airport, but the U.S. State Department warns travelers planning to go to Turkey. At the end of July, hundreds of the more than 10,000 soldiers being detained were freed on the recommendation of a judge in Istanbul after the soldiers provided testimony on their involvement.
But this isn't a sign of all things returning to normal any time soon. Turkish intelligence chiefs have accused supporters of Fetullah Gulen of working with the PKK (The Kurdistan Workers' Party (Kurdish: Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê, PKK)), claiming they have been passed state secrets to the Kurdish militants in exchange for passage out of the country after the failed coup. Turkey will not compromise with Washington over the extradition of the Islamic cleric it accuses of orchestrating a failed coup, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Saturday [August 13, 2016], warning of rising anti-Americanism if the United States fails to extradite. Gulen has denied that he or his followers were involved in the failed coup on July 15. Even if the U.S. agrees to extradite the elderly Turkish cleric, the process could be very long.
[See also: 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, a lengthy Wikipedia article]
Just over a year ago, it was argued that Turkey’s democratic tradition is often under-estimated and under-appreciated, as other countries were still dealing with instability in the years since Arab Spring. Now five years on, many say that corruption has increased in nine countries and territories in the region (least in Morocco, most in Lebanon), and Amnesty International reports that human rights are under attack in most of the Arab Spring countries. After four coups since 1960, Turkey seemed stable and was considered a regional model for democracy.
But Turkey's elevated status was reconsidered Erdoğan's Turkey "became embroiled in the regional conflicts rather than an arbiter of them," and the brutal police repression used against the anti-government protests in Istanbul and across Turkey coupled with Erdoğan’s choice of denigrating language toward the protestors raised doubts about the quality of Turkey’s democracy. That was in 2013, and earlier this year some saw the signs for a military coup (introduction only, full article paywalled). They were right, as the Peace at Home Council attempted to take back their country on the night of July 15, 2016, as declared on Turkish TV, citing undermined the separation of powers, failed efforts to combat growing terrorism, bureaucratic corruption, and failed judicial system. And then there was the fighting.
In the following hours, the lifelines of Istanbul — the two bridges uniting the Asian and European sides of town as well as Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport — were cut off. Multiple targets including the Parliament, the headquarters of the police forces and the National Intelligence Organization were struck. In tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters and jets, the coup plotters targeted and seized control of military bases, municipalities, political party offices and major news channels among others, claiming the lives of dozens of civilians and police officers.The reaction by Erdoğan and his supporters was swift. Anyone with any perceived link to the movement of U.S.-based cleric and Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen, accused of orchestrating the coup, was fired or detained, including soldiers, police, judges, lawyers, teachers, academics, journalists, doctors, football referees, and Turkish Airlines employees.
...
The coup attempt seems to have been poorly planned and executed. Though it appears Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was targeted by the plotters, none of the Turkish political leadership was captured or co-opted. The organizers of the coup were unable to gather sufficient support and resources among the broader military ranks. They also failed to execute an effective communication strategy with the public. Most fatally, they miscalculated the reaction of many critics of the Turkish government: Even though considerable portions of the public were against the Erdogan’s government, they were vehemently against any military intervention.
In the following turmoil, those who can leave the country are evaluating their options and pursuing migration out of the county. Turkey's central bank has cut interest rates, its fifth consecutive month of monetary easing, days after a failed attempt at a military coup in the country, but Moody's Investors Service has today placed under review for downgrade the ratings of 17 Turkish banks following a failed coup attempt last week in Turkey and the related placement of the Turkish sovereign rating under review for downgrade, and S&P Global Ratings lowered Turkey’s sovereign debt rating, warning that rising political uncertainty after [the failed] coup attempt could scare off investment and undermine fiscal management.
A few short days after the coup attempt, flights resumed at Istanbul airport, but the U.S. State Department warns travelers planning to go to Turkey. At the end of July, hundreds of the more than 10,000 soldiers being detained were freed on the recommendation of a judge in Istanbul after the soldiers provided testimony on their involvement.
But this isn't a sign of all things returning to normal any time soon. Turkish intelligence chiefs have accused supporters of Fetullah Gulen of working with the PKK (The Kurdistan Workers' Party (Kurdish: Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê, PKK)), claiming they have been passed state secrets to the Kurdish militants in exchange for passage out of the country after the failed coup. Turkey will not compromise with Washington over the extradition of the Islamic cleric it accuses of orchestrating a failed coup, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Saturday [August 13, 2016], warning of rising anti-Americanism if the United States fails to extradite. Gulen has denied that he or his followers were involved in the failed coup on July 15. Even if the U.S. agrees to extradite the elderly Turkish cleric, the process could be very long.
[See also: 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, a lengthy Wikipedia article]
Turkey coup: Erdogan backs return of death penalty at vast Istanbul rally
At the officially titled "Democracy and Martyrs' Rally", Erdogan declared, "They say there is no death penalty in the EU... Well, the US has it; Japan has it; China has it; most of the world has it. So they are allowed to have it. We used to have it until 1984. Sovereignty belongs to the people, so if the people make this decision I am sure the political parties will comply."
And in case there was any uncertainty that Gulen's head was being called for, the prime minister had introduced this speech by saying, "Let all of you know, the leader of this terrorist group will come to Turkey and pay for what he did", and the head of the armed forces said that "'traitors' behind an attempted coup would be punished in the harshest way".
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:19 PM on August 15, 2016
At the officially titled "Democracy and Martyrs' Rally", Erdogan declared, "They say there is no death penalty in the EU... Well, the US has it; Japan has it; China has it; most of the world has it. So they are allowed to have it. We used to have it until 1984. Sovereignty belongs to the people, so if the people make this decision I am sure the political parties will comply."
And in case there was any uncertainty that Gulen's head was being called for, the prime minister had introduced this speech by saying, "Let all of you know, the leader of this terrorist group will come to Turkey and pay for what he did", and the head of the armed forces said that "'traitors' behind an attempted coup would be punished in the harshest way".
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:19 PM on August 15, 2016
Do we really want these guys in NATO anymore?
posted by psycho-alchemy at 2:22 PM on August 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by psycho-alchemy at 2:22 PM on August 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
Yes, if only to keep a lid on the nukes, which are shared with other NATO members. If they had their own stockpile, this may have turned out differently.
posted by dr_dank at 2:33 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by dr_dank at 2:33 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
Between Erdogan mending fences with Putin and criticising the US and the EU, one has to wonder how much he cares about Turkey staying in NATO himself.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:45 PM on August 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:45 PM on August 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
If Turkey leaves NATO, then NATO has a huge Greece-shaped problem (or maybe a Cyprus-shaped problem). Given the terrible history of Greco-Turkish relations (hint: they've had a lot of wars), NATO is probably the strongest force keeping them from shooting at each other right now.
And of course, if one NATO member gets sucked into a shooting match, everybody else is almost automatically carried along for the ride.
posted by cstross at 3:00 PM on August 15, 2016 [12 favorites]
And of course, if one NATO member gets sucked into a shooting match, everybody else is almost automatically carried along for the ride.
posted by cstross at 3:00 PM on August 15, 2016 [12 favorites]
NATO and the US need Turkey more than they need us. The US has about 5000 airmen at Incirlik Air Base.
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:04 PM on August 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:04 PM on August 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
A lot of the talk I have seen has been about how Turkey is likely giving up on joining the EU and is instead considering joining Russia's new Eurasian Economic Union
posted by rosswald at 3:33 PM on August 15, 2016
posted by rosswald at 3:33 PM on August 15, 2016
And of course, if one NATO member gets sucked into a shooting match, everybody else is almost automatically carried along for the ride.
It's collective defense. If Greece decides to poke Erdogan we don't have to do shit.
posted by Talez at 4:32 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
It's collective defense. If Greece decides to poke Erdogan we don't have to do shit.
posted by Talez at 4:32 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
A lot of the talk I have seen has been about how Turkey is likely giving up on joining the EU and is instead considering joining Russia's new Eurasian Economic Union
Quite a turn of events after shooting down one of Russia's aircraft just a few months ago.
posted by indubitable at 4:39 PM on August 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
Quite a turn of events after shooting down one of Russia's aircraft just a few months ago.
posted by indubitable at 4:39 PM on August 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
Quite a turn of events after shooting down one of Russia's aircraft just a few months ago.
EU won't give Turkey visa free access to the EU while the Turkish crime and corruption issue remains unresolved. Erdogan basically realizes the jig is up if he proceeds with the level of anti-corruption and police co-operation the EU wants. Russia on the other hand doesn't really give a shit about how much Erdogan takes on the side while helping Iran to evade sanctions.
posted by Talez at 4:54 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
EU won't give Turkey visa free access to the EU while the Turkish crime and corruption issue remains unresolved. Erdogan basically realizes the jig is up if he proceeds with the level of anti-corruption and police co-operation the EU wants. Russia on the other hand doesn't really give a shit about how much Erdogan takes on the side while helping Iran to evade sanctions.
posted by Talez at 4:54 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
If Greece decides to poke Erdogan we don't have to do shit.
Cyprus is still under partition and has a U.N. peacekeeping force separating the Greeks from the Turks; it's been thus since the 70s, following a Greek coup d'état followed by a Turkish invasion. There's a lot of shades of grey between "collective defense" and "poking Erdogan".
posted by fatbird at 4:56 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
Cyprus is still under partition and has a U.N. peacekeeping force separating the Greeks from the Turks; it's been thus since the 70s, following a Greek coup d'état followed by a Turkish invasion. There's a lot of shades of grey between "collective defense" and "poking Erdogan".
posted by fatbird at 4:56 PM on August 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
So is the core problem the corruption of Erdoğan?
(well other than the mind numbingly insane set of wars, civil wars, insurrections and incomprehensible politics of the immediate region)
posted by sammyo at 5:10 PM on August 15, 2016
(well other than the mind numbingly insane set of wars, civil wars, insurrections and incomprehensible politics of the immediate region)
posted by sammyo at 5:10 PM on August 15, 2016
So is the core problem the corruption of Erdoğan?
Well the impasse on the visa issue is because Erdogan won't implement the corruption and police co-operation that the EU wants. Erdogan has repeatedly said if the EU don't ask him to prom soon he'll find another date.
posted by Talez at 5:16 PM on August 15, 2016
Well the impasse on the visa issue is because Erdogan won't implement the corruption and police co-operation that the EU wants. Erdogan has repeatedly said if the EU don't ask him to prom soon he'll find another date.
posted by Talez at 5:16 PM on August 15, 2016
I have known some Turkish scientists and they were all such lovely people and I am watching all these arrests and firings and I just wonder what has happened to them, and feel so sad.
posted by Squeak Attack at 6:11 PM on August 15, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by Squeak Attack at 6:11 PM on August 15, 2016 [4 favorites]
We met so many people from all walks of life in Adana and the surrounding villages. They are lovely people--so friendly and hospitable. I hope they are doing well and not caught up in the mess.
posted by BlueHorse at 10:09 PM on August 15, 2016
posted by BlueHorse at 10:09 PM on August 15, 2016
NATO and the US need Turkey more than they need us.
The current administration hasn't said much to criticize Erdogan, which seems to suggest this is true.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:21 AM on August 16, 2016
The current administration hasn't said much to criticize Erdogan, which seems to suggest this is true.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:21 AM on August 16, 2016
sio42: i honestly lost count of the number of coups mentioned in the main post.
As written in Al Jazeera's history of Turkish coups, the military has intervened directly in Turkish politics three times, and in 1997 carried out a "postmodern coup," which was summarized as follows:
posted by filthy light thief at 9:14 AM on August 16, 2016
As written in Al Jazeera's history of Turkish coups, the military has intervened directly in Turkish politics three times, and in 1997 carried out a "postmodern coup," which was summarized as follows:
The 1995 election led to overwhelming gains for the Islamist Welfare party, which took power the following year as the head of a coalition government.This would have been the 5th coup, except there wasn't the organization or general support.
In 1997 the military issued a series of "recommendations", which the government had no choice but to accept. The prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, agreed to a compulsory eight-year education programme (to prevent pupis from enrolling in religious schools), a headscarf ban at universities, and other measures. Erbakan was then forced to resign.
The Welfare party was shut down in 1998, and Erbakan was banned from politics for five years.
Some former members of the party, including current prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, would eventually go on to found the Justice and Development Party.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:14 AM on August 16, 2016
Turkish Media after the “Coup Attempt”
Between the dates of 17th of July–15th of August; the number of mainstream newspapers who directly linked the “Coup Attempt” to Jews and/or Israel is 76. Numbers are stated below. [...]posted by Joe in Australia at 4:20 PM on August 17, 2016
Deutsche Welle: Berlin 'plans concession on Bundestag's Armenia genocide resolution,' report says
(the report being from Der Spiegel, but I'm not seeing anything about it on the English version of their site at the moment)
posted by XMLicious at 12:41 AM on September 2, 2016 [1 favorite]
(the report being from Der Spiegel, but I'm not seeing anything about it on the English version of their site at the moment)
posted by XMLicious at 12:41 AM on September 2, 2016 [1 favorite]
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Someone hook up a generator to Ataturk's remains.
posted by Behemoth at 2:14 PM on August 15, 2016 [27 favorites]