Colombia's half-century civil war ends
September 28, 2016 7:02 AM Subscribe
With the signing of a peace deal between the government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army (better known as FARC), the Western Hemisphere has no active wars for the first time in six decades.
The peace deal, signed last month in Havana, isn't completely final. A public referendum is scheduled for October 2nd, and while polling is tilted heavily in favor of the deal, the most powerful oppositioo party (led by former President Alvaro Uribe) decries the deal, particularly its immunity provisions for former rebels.
And the end of FARC's military campaign doesn't mean that everything will be great in Colombia -- as Sarah Daly notes, "nearly half of all countries emerging from civil war relapse into violence within five years", largely because insurgent groups are usually not organized armies, but coalitions of groups with varied grievances against the government.
What's next for the members of FARC as their war ends (if only for now)? They may move into areas previously abandoned due to the war and help re-establish Colombia's agriculture and tourism sectors.
The peace deal, signed last month in Havana, isn't completely final. A public referendum is scheduled for October 2nd, and while polling is tilted heavily in favor of the deal, the most powerful oppositioo party (led by former President Alvaro Uribe) decries the deal, particularly its immunity provisions for former rebels.
And the end of FARC's military campaign doesn't mean that everything will be great in Colombia -- as Sarah Daly notes, "nearly half of all countries emerging from civil war relapse into violence within five years", largely because insurgent groups are usually not organized armies, but coalitions of groups with varied grievances against the government.
What's next for the members of FARC as their war ends (if only for now)? They may move into areas previously abandoned due to the war and help re-establish Colombia's agriculture and tourism sectors.
Timochenko, acknowledging that there are victims of the FARC is a good thing, but will there be justice for the victims?
posted by oddman at 8:15 AM on September 28, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by oddman at 8:15 AM on September 28, 2016 [1 favorite]
the Western Hemisphere has no active wars for the first time in six decades.
Wait until the election in November. You won't believe what happens next!
posted by blue_beetle at 8:47 AM on September 28, 2016 [1 favorite]
Wait until the election in November. You won't believe what happens next!
posted by blue_beetle at 8:47 AM on September 28, 2016 [1 favorite]
will there be justice for the victims?
If by "justice" you mean retribution, I fucking hope not. That is how wars go on for fifty years. As for keeping score, after the first 45 years, by one estimate the FARC and their allies were responsible for 12% of the killing.
Anyway this is definitely the best news of the year so far. Good luck, Colombia.
posted by sfenders at 8:50 AM on September 28, 2016 [11 favorites]
If by "justice" you mean retribution, I fucking hope not. That is how wars go on for fifty years. As for keeping score, after the first 45 years, by one estimate the FARC and their allies were responsible for 12% of the killing.
Anyway this is definitely the best news of the year so far. Good luck, Colombia.
posted by sfenders at 8:50 AM on September 28, 2016 [11 favorites]
This American Life episode 575 from December, 2015: Poetry of Propaganda, Act One. Guerrilla Marketing. Transcript
posted by morganw at 3:10 PM on September 28, 2016 [2 favorites]
...advertising executive in Colombia named Jose Miguel Sokoloff was offered what had to be the most demanding account of his career.Sokoloff's TED Talk.
The client was the government of Colombia. The assignment, convince as many FARC guerrilla fighters as possible to demobilize, to quit the FARC. In short, please help us end this war.
posted by morganw at 3:10 PM on September 28, 2016 [2 favorites]
Terrifyingly, the referendum appears to be tipping over into "no" territory.
posted by phooky at 3:58 PM on October 2, 2016
posted by phooky at 3:58 PM on October 2, 2016
Colombia referendum: Voters reject Farc peace deal
With votes in from more than 99% of polling stations counted, 50.2% opposed the accord while 49.8% supported it - a difference of less than 63,000 votes out of 13 million ballots.posted by Rhaomi at 4:31 PM on October 2, 2016
The surprise result means the peace process is now shrouded by uncertainty.
Holy fuck, 2016. I know the world is out to destroy everyone's faith in democracy this year, but was it really necessary to go this far?
posted by sfenders at 4:31 PM on October 2, 2016
posted by sfenders at 4:31 PM on October 2, 2016
I guess I am not so surprised by the outcome of the Colombian plebiscite, I am just damn disappointed. What I have been reading since the accord was announced definitely indicated the vote would be tighter than polling had suggested. So many people's lives have been negatively impacted by FARC actions. The lack of a strong "punishment" component seemed to steel many a heart against this deal. It also seems to me that the FARC's most recent attempts at reforming their image in Colombian society and culture struck a sour note. This is so hard, and I am so very sad. Just one more thing to hate about 2016. At least Timochenko is still claiming the FARC will hold firm on their promise for peace. I hope the two sides can get back to the negotiating table, despite the claims it won't happen.
posted by msali at 5:06 PM on October 2, 2016
posted by msali at 5:06 PM on October 2, 2016
"Turnout was low at less than 40%"
What's the explanation for the low turnout? This seems to be something that people in Colombia would care about, yeah?
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 6:20 PM on October 2, 2016
What's the explanation for the low turnout? This seems to be something that people in Colombia would care about, yeah?
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 6:20 PM on October 2, 2016
Well, it looks like the FARC still wants the peace deal, the government wants the peace deal, Timochenko and Santos want peace, the people who live in the areas where the fighting would take place if it started up again want peace, and none of them have any better options than this deal. So maybe they will work something out. Maybe even before the ELN, AGC, or some other group new or old gets some other ideas.
posted by sfenders at 8:08 PM on October 3, 2016
posted by sfenders at 8:08 PM on October 3, 2016
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posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:45 AM on September 28, 2016 [2 favorites]