Election day in the Netherlands
March 15, 2017 6:52 AM Subscribe
Today are the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with 28 parties vying for the 150 seats (out of 81 parties originally registered). Everyone is watching Geert Wilder's far-right anti-immigration anti-muslim PVV party, who has been called "the Dutch Trump" and is said to be "even more toxic than the real thing". He has attracted support from US billionaires and even US congressmen, although VVD leader and current minister-president Mark Rutte says the VVD will not form a coalition with the PVV no matter how many seats they gain. This election is viewed as a bellweather for European populism in the coming French and German elections.
Bonus fun video: Holland vs the Netherlands (previously), in case you weren't sure what the difference is.
Bonus fun video: Holland vs the Netherlands (previously), in case you weren't sure what the difference is.
I forgot to mention in the post that Turkey has suspended diplomatic relations with the Netherlands after the Turkish foreign minister was barred from landing in Rotterdam to lead a pro-Erdoğan rally.
posted by autopilot at 6:59 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by autopilot at 6:59 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Thanks for the post, autopilot.
[Wilders] has attracted support from US billionaires and even US congressmen...
I suspected something was up when I saw that Wilders tweets in English (as well as Dutch). That a far-right nationalist would tweet in a language other than his mother tongue told me much about whom he sees as his audience. So much for protecting the Netherlands from outside, corrupting influences...
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:00 AM on March 15, 2017 [34 favorites]
[Wilders] has attracted support from US billionaires and even US congressmen...
I suspected something was up when I saw that Wilders tweets in English (as well as Dutch). That a far-right nationalist would tweet in a language other than his mother tongue told me much about whom he sees as his audience. So much for protecting the Netherlands from outside, corrupting influences...
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:00 AM on March 15, 2017 [34 favorites]
Additionally, due to concerns about possible hacking of voting machines, all ballots will be hand counted. Interior minister Ronald Plasterk wrote that he “cannot rule out that state actors may try to benefit from influencing political decisions and public opinion in the Netherlands”.
posted by autopilot at 7:09 AM on March 15, 2017 [17 favorites]
posted by autopilot at 7:09 AM on March 15, 2017 [17 favorites]
Obviously Wilders is pretty awful and I don't want him to win and even if he does it won't matter, but as a former student of Dutch politics, I'd be interested to see what would happen if he somehow formed a government. Who would be his ministers? Remember how bad the LPF was in Balkenende I? And the LPF was at least pretending to be a party. PVV is just a media organization.
posted by kevinbelt at 7:31 AM on March 15, 2017
posted by kevinbelt at 7:31 AM on March 15, 2017
The Guardian: Dutch elections: all you need to know.
I'm voting later today and I'm still undecided between GroenLinks, D66 and the Piratenpartij.
posted by Pendragon at 7:32 AM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
I'm voting later today and I'm still undecided between GroenLinks, D66 and the Piratenpartij.
posted by Pendragon at 7:32 AM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
who has been called "the Dutch Trump"
fyi a Dutch Trump is even worse than a Dutch Oven
posted by indubitable at 7:38 AM on March 15, 2017 [32 favorites]
fyi a Dutch Trump is even worse than a Dutch Oven
posted by indubitable at 7:38 AM on March 15, 2017 [32 favorites]
Good luck, Nederland friends.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 7:39 AM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by the quidnunc kid at 7:39 AM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
One of the opposition parties should have run Vader Abraham.
Because if Geert Wilders can beat Vader Abraham in a national popularity/morality contest, then time itself has no meaning and might as well stop.
posted by delfin at 7:43 AM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Because if Geert Wilders can beat Vader Abraham in a national popularity/morality contest, then time itself has no meaning and might as well stop.
posted by delfin at 7:43 AM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Anecdotally, I mailed in my expat ballot a week and a half ago. Each of the past few elections has gotten more difficult to vote in, in terms of the procedural and technical barriers you have to overcome. It's hard not to come away with the idea that they do not want expats to vote at all.
This round had new barriers in place, but I was determined to get my vote in precisely because of not wanting Wilders to succeed either in getting power or setting the agenda (although he has probably won the latter). To my surprise, I received my ballot in the mail in advance of the election, which made for a nice change from the last two votes. Much more effective.
Again, this is just my own experience, and it's one I share with the rest of my family. How representative it is of the overall picture for expats, I have no idea. I suspect it's fairly common, though, particularly among older Dutch immigrants who may not be internet savvy, and be easily frustrated by ever-increasing procedural barriers.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:44 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
This round had new barriers in place, but I was determined to get my vote in precisely because of not wanting Wilders to succeed either in getting power or setting the agenda (although he has probably won the latter). To my surprise, I received my ballot in the mail in advance of the election, which made for a nice change from the last two votes. Much more effective.
Again, this is just my own experience, and it's one I share with the rest of my family. How representative it is of the overall picture for expats, I have no idea. I suspect it's fairly common, though, particularly among older Dutch immigrants who may not be internet savvy, and be easily frustrated by ever-increasing procedural barriers.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:44 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Note that while Wilders has quite a lot of support, he is still "only" at 21 seats in a combined poll. That's 21 out of 150. It's way too much, but on the other hand, it's about 15% of voters. Even if he won 30 seats, which is way more than expected, it would be only 20%. Wilders is scary, but it's perhaps even scarier that because our media makes this into a game with winners and losers, that it seems like he has way more support than he actually has. A party can now "win" the election with less than 20% of votes, but that does not mean that they get to govern (as the newyorker article explains) or that they have any kind of mandate.
It's so sad many other politicians take Wilders so super seriously, and act like there is so much support, and that they have to find out what that means, and pander to these voters too. It's a lot like what you saw with the US elections, with all the emphasis on how important it was to connect with Trump supporters, to find out what they're unhappy about, to listen to them. It's shocking how more far right our formerly normal right wing party has become. The Overton window shifting really works.
posted by blub at 7:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [12 favorites]
It's so sad many other politicians take Wilders so super seriously, and act like there is so much support, and that they have to find out what that means, and pander to these voters too. It's a lot like what you saw with the US elections, with all the emphasis on how important it was to connect with Trump supporters, to find out what they're unhappy about, to listen to them. It's shocking how more far right our formerly normal right wing party has become. The Overton window shifting really works.
posted by blub at 7:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [12 favorites]
Wilders' party PVV will probably be gaining seats, but it could have been worse. They seemed to enjoy a short boost late last year - maybe energized by the Trump victory - but their polls have recently been going downhill again (as you can see here, just click on PVV). In general, it's pretty insane to see how badly the currently biggest parties are polling. PvdA (Labour Party, Social Democrats) are looking to crash from 38 representatives to 9. The landscape is definitely changing.
Nobody in my family is eligible to vote, intra-EU immigrants as we are, but my kid has been canvassing this week. She's 14! We've been living and breathing these elections for months now. I can tell you it's the weirdest thing, when seemingly in the blink of an eye your child goes from being all about Harry Potter and the Hunger Games to being glued to the TV whenever there's a debate on health care and immigration. She's passionate about politics and social justice, member of the GreenLeft youth (and already making plans to run for office in 8 years). Guys, she's got this.
posted by sively at 7:55 AM on March 15, 2017 [41 favorites]
Nobody in my family is eligible to vote, intra-EU immigrants as we are, but my kid has been canvassing this week. She's 14! We've been living and breathing these elections for months now. I can tell you it's the weirdest thing, when seemingly in the blink of an eye your child goes from being all about Harry Potter and the Hunger Games to being glued to the TV whenever there's a debate on health care and immigration. She's passionate about politics and social justice, member of the GreenLeft youth (and already making plans to run for office in 8 years). Guys, she's got this.
posted by sively at 7:55 AM on March 15, 2017 [41 favorites]
Come on, Netherlands, turn this tide around.
posted by tobascodagama at 8:16 AM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by tobascodagama at 8:16 AM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
Depressingly, no one around here seems to know anyone involved.
More depressingly, if they know anyone it's Wilders.
I think the BBC even spelt Rutte's name wrong.
I'm sure there is some kind of international brotherhood of racist fuckers (with stupid hair). Because there is SOOO much media attention on these people. Even Farage in the UK (a man who's failed to be elected 7 times and isn't even a party leader anymore) is constantly on TV.
Also, all the Trump fans and Brexit fans and so on are all out on Twitter signal boosting Wilders/PVV.
I've stuck the currently held seats on the whiteboard at work. No one really knows what all the words mean so I need to keep explaining it to them.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:28 AM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
More depressingly, if they know anyone it's Wilders.
I think the BBC even spelt Rutte's name wrong.
I'm sure there is some kind of international brotherhood of racist fuckers (with stupid hair). Because there is SOOO much media attention on these people. Even Farage in the UK (a man who's failed to be elected 7 times and isn't even a party leader anymore) is constantly on TV.
Also, all the Trump fans and Brexit fans and so on are all out on Twitter signal boosting Wilders/PVV.
I've stuck the currently held seats on the whiteboard at work. No one really knows what all the words mean so I need to keep explaining it to them.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:28 AM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Leon de Winter has an interesting piece in today's WSJ on the election. It's behind a paywall, but that's what libraries are for.
posted by IndigoJones at 8:44 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by IndigoJones at 8:44 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
These wingnuts always like to play "Eye of the Tiger." Survivor, to their credit, have asked many of them to cut it out.
/stalks prey in the night
posted by jonmc at 8:50 AM on March 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
/stalks prey in the night
posted by jonmc at 8:50 AM on March 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
international brotherhood of racist fuckers (with stupid hair)... Even Farage...
Think where we'd be if he'd had Boris's hair...
posted by Segundus at 8:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Think where we'd be if he'd had Boris's hair...
posted by Segundus at 8:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
If you want to read the article IndigoJones mentioned you can google its title The Dutch Find Welfare and Immigration Make an Uneasy Mix.
posted by jouke at 8:56 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by jouke at 8:56 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
blub: Note that while Wilders has quite a lot of support, he is still "only" at 21 seats in a combined poll.
Is support for populists adequately reflected in the polls? (The Economist: Intelligence Unit, February 27th 2017)
posted by filthy light thief at 9:03 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Is support for populists adequately reflected in the polls? (The Economist: Intelligence Unit, February 27th 2017)
The vote in the UK to leave the EU in June last year and the election of Donald Trump in the US in November came as a shock to many. An often heard reason for this is that the polls ahead of these votes were wrong and misled many into a false sense of security. However, the polls ahead of the Brexit vote pointed to a race that was essentially too close to call, and the polls in the US did get several of the crucial state-level results wrong but were very close in terms of the popular vote. Pollsters' failure to capture voters who had previously disengaged from the political process and had been activated by the Leave campaign in the UK and Mr Trump is broadly seen as the driving force of this polling miss. With three big elections coming up in Europe, the question of whether European polling organisations are missing similar groups is therefore an important one to address.Interesting times, all around.
Dutch pollsters to be tested first
The first test of the accuracy of the polls this year will be in the Netherlands, where there will be a parliamentary election on March 15th. The main question here will be whether the polls are able to capture accurately support for the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV). One of the issues for pollsters in capturing support for populist parties is that those who have turned off from politics are also difficult to reach for polling purposes.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:03 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
I can't be the only one who sees a pic of Geert Wilders and thinks "Why is Jimmy Page in the news?"
posted by rocket88 at 9:08 AM on March 15, 2017 [10 favorites]
posted by rocket88 at 9:08 AM on March 15, 2017 [10 favorites]
Capt. Renault:
Anecdotally, I mailed in my expat ballot a week and a half ago. Each of the past few elections has gotten more difficult to vote in, in terms of the procedural and technical barriers you have to overcome. It's hard not to come away with the idea that they do not want expats to vote at all.
Eelco Keij (D66) is campaigning on exactly that issue, along with more general difficulties that expats face. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 7% of Dutch citizens live abroad.
posted by xthlc at 9:09 AM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Anecdotally, I mailed in my expat ballot a week and a half ago. Each of the past few elections has gotten more difficult to vote in, in terms of the procedural and technical barriers you have to overcome. It's hard not to come away with the idea that they do not want expats to vote at all.
Eelco Keij (D66) is campaigning on exactly that issue, along with more general difficulties that expats face. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 7% of Dutch citizens live abroad.
posted by xthlc at 9:09 AM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
One of the issues for pollsters in capturing support for populist parties is that those who have turned off from politics are also difficult to reach for polling purposes.
Accessing alienated voters is one part of it, to be sure. Another part is that people may not want to admit their support of Wilders (or another such populist) to a pollster, or in polite company. Protected by the privacy of the ballot box, however...
Whether Wilders' support has actually dropped in the final stretch, or if people are simply not admitting to supporting him -- I guess we'll find out very soon.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:12 AM on March 15, 2017
Accessing alienated voters is one part of it, to be sure. Another part is that people may not want to admit their support of Wilders (or another such populist) to a pollster, or in polite company. Protected by the privacy of the ballot box, however...
Whether Wilders' support has actually dropped in the final stretch, or if people are simply not admitting to supporting him -- I guess we'll find out very soon.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:12 AM on March 15, 2017
I heard they're expecting a voting turnout of about 80%.
The last US elections had a turnout of 55,3%. A remarkable difference.
posted by jouke at 9:18 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
The last US elections had a turnout of 55,3%. A remarkable difference.
posted by jouke at 9:18 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Capt. Renault:
Ms. Ra also complained about expat voting. She ended up having her sister vote for her. I found this weird because I voted by mail in the 2012 Mexican elections FROM the Netherlands and had no problem doing so, I even got a booklet with all the candidate's positions and a sticker. Everything was free and the Mexican embassy took care of my vote. So, huh, there's a government thing that Mexico is better at than The Netherlands. Weird.
posted by Omon Ra at 9:18 AM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Ms. Ra also complained about expat voting. She ended up having her sister vote for her. I found this weird because I voted by mail in the 2012 Mexican elections FROM the Netherlands and had no problem doing so, I even got a booklet with all the candidate's positions and a sticker. Everything was free and the Mexican embassy took care of my vote. So, huh, there's a government thing that Mexico is better at than The Netherlands. Weird.
posted by Omon Ra at 9:18 AM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
I find the announcement that all votes will be counted by hand heartening. It will give us insight into whether the inability of pollsters to measure votes for fascist parties is due to a "shy tory" effect, where voters for fascism lie about who they intend to vote for, or if it's instead produced by fascists tampering with voting machines.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:23 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:23 AM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
I'm sure there is some kind of international brotherhood of racist fuckers (with stupid hair). Because there is SOOO much media attention on these people. Even Farage in the UK (a man who's failed to be elected 7 times and isn't even a party leader anymore) is constantly on TV.
I think the head of media ownership for the International Brotherhood of Racist Fuckers is Rupert Murdoch. The IBRF is itself a cover organization for Oily Oligarchs For Inequality.
posted by benzenedream at 9:24 AM on March 15, 2017 [11 favorites]
I think the head of media ownership for the International Brotherhood of Racist Fuckers is Rupert Murdoch. The IBRF is itself a cover organization for Oily Oligarchs For Inequality.
posted by benzenedream at 9:24 AM on March 15, 2017 [11 favorites]
Please tell President Bannon to fuck off and stay out of your affairs, dear Netherlands.
posted by longdaysjourney at 9:41 AM on March 15, 2017
posted by longdaysjourney at 9:41 AM on March 15, 2017
It should be noted that Iowa Rep. Steve King's recent racist tweet (NYT article) had two sentences. The second was the racist part: "We can't restore our civilization with somebody else's babies." The first sentence was support of Wilders: "Wilders understands that culture and demographics are our destiny."
A side story about my only brush with Wilders:
I covered the RNC and DNC as a photographer and on the first day of the RNC saw a tall man surrounded by about 5 or 6 reporters in a back hallway. I took a picture, thinking he might be important and could ask who it was later. Turned out it was Geert Wilders. All the media people who had been surrounding him were foreign reporters. Mentioned seeing him to a couple of American colleagues, and nobody seemed to know who he was.
On the final day, I was on the floor while Trump did his sound test for the speech later that night. Heard a British accent next to me, wondering to whomever he was with whether and how Trump practices his speeches. That's when I heard Nigel Farage say that he likes to practice his speeches in the shower.
I wish I'd taken more pictures of people on the edges of the stage. Analyzing the Trump campaign and its connections feels a bit like Kremlinology. On election night, I was at Trump's party, and I knew things were really real when I saw Sarah Palin and Ben Carson a few other conservative celebrities emerge from behind a curtain at least an hour before Trump showed up.
Didn't see too many unexpected people at the DNC, though it was interesting to look and see who was sitting around Bill and Chelsea Clinton when they were in the audience. Recognized a few celebrities around the event, but that's to be expected. Didn't notice any big foreign power players. Got excited when I saw Chuck Close going around one of the spectator levels.
posted by msbrauer at 9:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [18 favorites]
A side story about my only brush with Wilders:
I covered the RNC and DNC as a photographer and on the first day of the RNC saw a tall man surrounded by about 5 or 6 reporters in a back hallway. I took a picture, thinking he might be important and could ask who it was later. Turned out it was Geert Wilders. All the media people who had been surrounding him were foreign reporters. Mentioned seeing him to a couple of American colleagues, and nobody seemed to know who he was.
On the final day, I was on the floor while Trump did his sound test for the speech later that night. Heard a British accent next to me, wondering to whomever he was with whether and how Trump practices his speeches. That's when I heard Nigel Farage say that he likes to practice his speeches in the shower.
I wish I'd taken more pictures of people on the edges of the stage. Analyzing the Trump campaign and its connections feels a bit like Kremlinology. On election night, I was at Trump's party, and I knew things were really real when I saw Sarah Palin and Ben Carson a few other conservative celebrities emerge from behind a curtain at least an hour before Trump showed up.
Didn't see too many unexpected people at the DNC, though it was interesting to look and see who was sitting around Bill and Chelsea Clinton when they were in the audience. Recognized a few celebrities around the event, but that's to be expected. Didn't notice any big foreign power players. Got excited when I saw Chuck Close going around one of the spectator levels.
posted by msbrauer at 9:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [18 favorites]
If [Wilders] somehow formed a government. Who would be his ministers? Remember how bad the LPF was in Balkenende I? And the LPF was at least pretending to be a party. PVV is just a media organization.
Well, Trump/Bannon were basically just a media organization too, and they found their ministers in the form of private sector goons and sympathetic-minded "mainstream" politicians. I don't know very much about the Netherlands' political balance, but that seems to me like a recipe that would bake just as well anywhere else. Do Dutch ministers have to be elected members of legislature?
posted by saturday_morning at 10:01 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Well, Trump/Bannon were basically just a media organization too, and they found their ministers in the form of private sector goons and sympathetic-minded "mainstream" politicians. I don't know very much about the Netherlands' political balance, but that seems to me like a recipe that would bake just as well anywhere else. Do Dutch ministers have to be elected members of legislature?
posted by saturday_morning at 10:01 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Huh, I never realised Geert Wilders is 1,95m. And then Mark Rutte is the same height of course.
That's the Dutch for you I guess.
posted by jouke at 10:14 AM on March 15, 2017
That's the Dutch for you I guess.
posted by jouke at 10:14 AM on March 15, 2017
I had a neato Joe Biden shirt that I would wear sometimes when I was living in The Hague, but I had to stop because people kept on mistaking Joe for Wilders and I didn't want to be associated with him.
I find this mystifying because almost every experience I've had in the Netherlands was one of general openness and tolerance. But then I remember the whole Zwarte Piet business, and this particular incident where a protester who happened to have black skin was threatened because people made horrendously ignorant assumptions about what she was protesting and ... yeah. There is a fair bit of the whole "this is our country and if you don't like any part of it, no matter how small, then fuck off" mentality there just as there is everywhere else.
Logically I know that because of the Dutch political system it'll be nearly impossible for Wilders to form a government. But left-right coalitions are a messy, awkward business at best. And the tendency to laugh off and dismiss anyone with a Limburg accent is probably not helping the political establishment, but that's a lesson that the Democrats didn't learn particularly well either.
posted by 1adam12 at 10:18 AM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
I find this mystifying because almost every experience I've had in the Netherlands was one of general openness and tolerance. But then I remember the whole Zwarte Piet business, and this particular incident where a protester who happened to have black skin was threatened because people made horrendously ignorant assumptions about what she was protesting and ... yeah. There is a fair bit of the whole "this is our country and if you don't like any part of it, no matter how small, then fuck off" mentality there just as there is everywhere else.
Logically I know that because of the Dutch political system it'll be nearly impossible for Wilders to form a government. But left-right coalitions are a messy, awkward business at best. And the tendency to laugh off and dismiss anyone with a Limburg accent is probably not helping the political establishment, but that's a lesson that the Democrats didn't learn particularly well either.
posted by 1adam12 at 10:18 AM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Just got back from the voting station and I decided to vote for the Piratenpartij. I had to wait in line for the first time in years, so I'm guessing voter turnout will be high.
posted by Pendragon at 10:23 AM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 10:23 AM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
I just want to tell you good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by Etrigan at 10:46 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Etrigan at 10:46 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
I can't be the only one who sees a pic of Geert Wilders and thinks "Why is Jimmy Page in the news?"
*pulls out crumpled list of things poisoned by the far right*
*pencils in "Led Zeppelin"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:51 AM on March 15, 2017 [15 favorites]
*pulls out crumpled list of things poisoned by the far right*
*pencils in "Led Zeppelin"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:51 AM on March 15, 2017 [15 favorites]
I'm a Dutch expat who's lived in the New York Metro area for the past 23 years, and this is the first Dutch election I'm participating in. Because fuck Geert Wilders.
posted by monospace at 10:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [28 favorites]
posted by monospace at 10:52 AM on March 15, 2017 [28 favorites]
Mr. Too-Ticky and I played our part in democracy just now, and then rode our bicycles home, where we celebrated Dutchness in all its gezellige glory by eating pea soup. As one does.
I did what I always do: choose a party first, based on the statements they make on the important issues, and then vote for the highest woman on their list. This time, I went with GroenLinks.
Fuck Geert Wilders sideways, up and down the town hall square and three times around the church. Thanks all y'all who voted for other Dutch politicians, or would have done so if they'd had the option.
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:01 AM on March 15, 2017 [40 favorites]
I did what I always do: choose a party first, based on the statements they make on the important issues, and then vote for the highest woman on their list. This time, I went with GroenLinks.
Fuck Geert Wilders sideways, up and down the town hall square and three times around the church. Thanks all y'all who voted for other Dutch politicians, or would have done so if they'd had the option.
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:01 AM on March 15, 2017 [40 favorites]
One begins to wish for less interesting times in which to live.
Best wishes from Cautionarytaleland.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:13 AM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
Best wishes from Cautionarytaleland.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:13 AM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
> [...] "the Dutch Trump" and is said to be "even more toxic than the real thing".
Doubt. The real thing is a bona fide psychopath; Wilders is mostly bark and no bite.
Nonetheless, fuck 'em.
posted by farlukar at 11:17 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Doubt. The real thing is a bona fide psychopath; Wilders is mostly bark and no bite.
Nonetheless, fuck 'em.
posted by farlukar at 11:17 AM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm curious. Are there any MeFites who actually support Wilders? Or, for that matter, Ukip, Marine Le Pen, AfD, et al.? I'm pretty sure there are a few Trump voters, but I don't think I've ever seen any European MeFites express support for the far right.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:24 AM on March 15, 2017
posted by kevinbelt at 11:24 AM on March 15, 2017
There's left-brexiteers here, but that's a different thing altogether.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:34 AM on March 15, 2017
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:34 AM on March 15, 2017
This election is viewed as a bellweather for European populism
Pedantry: It's bellwether. A wether is castrated male sheep. The wether would wear a bell, and the flock would follow it. By extension, it came to mean any leader or leading indicator.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:59 AM on March 15, 2017 [40 favorites]
Pedantry: It's bellwether. A wether is castrated male sheep. The wether would wear a bell, and the flock would follow it. By extension, it came to mean any leader or leading indicator.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:59 AM on March 15, 2017 [40 favorites]
At 19:45, about one hour before polls closing, participation is at 73%, compared to 65% at the same time last election, with reports of long queues. Exit polls will be released at 21:00, Guardian live coverage.
posted by ltl at 12:18 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by ltl at 12:18 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
If a grand coalition turns out to be electoral poison for PvdA, as all polls suggest, is there much enthusiasm for GL or D66 to serve as junior partners in Rutte III?
That's what makes the Dutch system interesting to me: protest votes or defections from the big traditional parties aren't necessarily wasted votes because of the coalition sausage machine, but there's a kind of discontinuity in voting for a party and its platform while not knowing what will survive the coalition-building process, or even whether that party would prefer to be part of the coalition in exchange for a few key policies, or work in opposition till next time.
posted by holgate at 12:37 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
That's what makes the Dutch system interesting to me: protest votes or defections from the big traditional parties aren't necessarily wasted votes because of the coalition sausage machine, but there's a kind of discontinuity in voting for a party and its platform while not knowing what will survive the coalition-building process, or even whether that party would prefer to be part of the coalition in exchange for a few key policies, or work in opposition till next time.
posted by holgate at 12:37 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
A wether is castrated male sheep. The wether would wear a bell, and the flock would follow it. By extension, it came to mean any leader or leading indicator.
Interesting! Here in the Low Lands, a bellwether is called a 'belhamel', and that word came to mean the leader of the gang in a negative sense, the one who is always the first to initiate bad stuff, the person who always gets [the others] in trouble.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Interesting! Here in the Low Lands, a bellwether is called a 'belhamel', and that word came to mean the leader of the gang in a negative sense, the one who is always the first to initiate bad stuff, the person who always gets [the others] in trouble.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Youtube live stream of the election coverage of public broadcaster NOS.
posted by ltl at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by ltl at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
autopilot: This election is viewed as a bellweather [sic] for European populism in the coming French and German elections.
Because that puts no pressure on us at all.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:51 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Because that puts no pressure on us at all.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:51 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Not sure if this checklist has been posted, but it's incredibly helpful and I will be looking to it as results are reported to understand their significance.
posted by prefpara at 12:56 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by prefpara at 12:56 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
And the stembureaus are closed. RTL is starting to post exit polls and are predicting 31 seats for VVD (Rutte, -10) and 19 for PVV (Wilders, +4).
posted by autopilot at 1:06 PM on March 15, 2017
posted by autopilot at 1:06 PM on March 15, 2017
The first exit poll was released:
VVD: 31
CDA: 19
D66: 19
PVV: 19
GL: 16
SP: 14
Best wishes from the USA!
Also, thanks for posting the livestrem, ltl! I love listening to Dutch, even though I can't understand hardly any of it. It sounds like German + English to my ear in the most fantastic way!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 1:09 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
VVD: 31
CDA: 19
D66: 19
PVV: 19
GL: 16
SP: 14
Best wishes from the USA!
Also, thanks for posting the livestrem, ltl! I love listening to Dutch, even though I can't understand hardly any of it. It sounds like German + English to my ear in the most fantastic way!
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 1:09 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Missing from the exit poll results posted above is the most stunning result of this election: the Labour Party (PvdA) goes from 38 to 9 seats. Largest loss in the party's history.
Wow.
posted by monospace at 1:11 PM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Wow.
posted by monospace at 1:11 PM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
Maybe now the splinter party PvDA can finally be convinced of the need for a real socialist unity and merge with the real mass social democratic party, the SP.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:14 PM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by MartinWisse at 1:14 PM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Wilders winning more seats is depressing, but it's still not at LPF levels and it's almost as depressing to see numpties like D66 or GroenLinks winning big, let alone Denk.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:16 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by MartinWisse at 1:16 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Numpties like D66 or GroenLinks ? Explain ?
posted by Pendragon at 1:18 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 1:18 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
uhhh total outsider here and apologies if I'm opening up a messy can of worms — as I think I may be — but what's bad about GroenLinks winning big?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:19 PM on March 15, 2017
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:19 PM on March 15, 2017
Can't stand either party, as they're the kind of useless, sort of leftish sounding but very quick to trade any ideals for access to power party that enables the right to keep in power.
The LibDems of the Netherlands.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:24 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
The LibDems of the Netherlands.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:24 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
The results for Denk are quite interesting. Denk is one of the very few European parties that is focussed on, and comprised of, immigrants and other "new" Europeans. They stand to gain 3 seats.
posted by monospace at 1:25 PM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by monospace at 1:25 PM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
Ah, makes sense. I was surprised, just because I know zilch about Netherlands politics and the only other Left-Green party I know anything about (the Icelandic Left-Greens) seem like 100% the best.
I take it the SP is the party that democratic socialists should be rooting for?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:26 PM on March 15, 2017
I take it the SP is the party that democratic socialists should be rooting for?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:26 PM on March 15, 2017
It's the party I'm a member of, so yeah.
It's not perfect by a longshot, but it's better than any of the alternatives.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:29 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
It's not perfect by a longshot, but it's better than any of the alternatives.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:29 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
So, if I'm reading the checklist article correctly and the exit poll results hold, it looks like the center-right coalition of VVD CDA D66 GL will be forming the new government. So Wilder's PVV is as large as most of the coalition members, but they don't actually have a seat at the table with the ruling coalition, so they won't actually be able to set any policy agendas.
Is that about right?
posted by tobascodagama at 1:32 PM on March 15, 2017
Is that about right?
posted by tobascodagama at 1:32 PM on March 15, 2017
The question is how keen GL would be to form a government together with the VVD (and vice versa).
posted by bjrn at 1:34 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by bjrn at 1:34 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Calling D66 kind of useless while you're a member of the SP is like the pot calling the kettle black.
posted by Pendragon at 1:37 PM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 1:37 PM on March 15, 2017 [7 favorites]
Another question is if PvdA stays in, or steps out to regroup.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:39 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:39 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
PvdA won't be a part of a new coalition, unless it takes a long time to form one. Usually the parties with the greatest losses step back and only enter a coalition when asked because off problems forming a new coalition.
posted by Pendragon at 1:43 PM on March 15, 2017
posted by Pendragon at 1:43 PM on March 15, 2017
It's apparently easy being GroenLinks. For now.
posted by holgate at 1:48 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by holgate at 1:48 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Looking at the last exit poll more objectively, it's clear that the trend of a splintering political consensus has continued: VVD lost nine seats but remains the biggest at 31 seats, while the next biggest parties CDA and D66 have only 19, as has the PVV, GL on 16 and SP on 14.
The rest, including what was for most of the post-war period the biggest or second biggest party in parliament, the PvdA, are single digit parties.
Which means a four party coalition if Rutte wants a Tweede Kamer majority. VVD CDA, D66 and GL is indeed the most likely coalition to be explored first. The first three have all experience in government and governing together, while GL hasn't but would like to. It would be wary of being the leftmost party in a centrist right coalition, considering what happened to the PvdA this time, not to mention D66's entire history of being big in opposition and losing when part of the government.
The other option would be to exclude GroenLinks and court the support of the small Christian parties ChristenUnie (liberalish) and SGP (women voting rights still controversial), which has been done before, informally.
A leftwing coalition is numerically impossible, a centre-left coalition might be: CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA for a total of 77 seats but a) the PvdA cannot justify being in government when losing twenty seats and b) a five party coalition with parties that are not always on speaking terms is a recipe for disaster.
A VVD-PVV coalition is impossible as Rutte and Wilders loathe each other and I doubt any other party would want to participate.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:49 PM on March 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
The rest, including what was for most of the post-war period the biggest or second biggest party in parliament, the PvdA, are single digit parties.
Which means a four party coalition if Rutte wants a Tweede Kamer majority. VVD CDA, D66 and GL is indeed the most likely coalition to be explored first. The first three have all experience in government and governing together, while GL hasn't but would like to. It would be wary of being the leftmost party in a centrist right coalition, considering what happened to the PvdA this time, not to mention D66's entire history of being big in opposition and losing when part of the government.
The other option would be to exclude GroenLinks and court the support of the small Christian parties ChristenUnie (liberalish) and SGP (women voting rights still controversial), which has been done before, informally.
A leftwing coalition is numerically impossible, a centre-left coalition might be: CDA-D66-GL-SP-PvdA for a total of 77 seats but a) the PvdA cannot justify being in government when losing twenty seats and b) a five party coalition with parties that are not always on speaking terms is a recipe for disaster.
A VVD-PVV coalition is impossible as Rutte and Wilders loathe each other and I doubt any other party would want to participate.
posted by MartinWisse at 1:49 PM on March 15, 2017 [8 favorites]
Yes, I think GL will think twice about entering a coalition with the VVD. But they are the big winner of the evening so the pressure to enter the coalition will be great. Interestingly, in a recent poll of GL voters the willingness off entering a coalition with the VVD was 50%.
posted by Pendragon at 1:57 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Pendragon at 1:57 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
My prediction: VVD-CDA-D66-CU
posted by Pendragon at 2:04 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 2:04 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Here, NOS provides tracking of the results and a tool for playing around with various coalition options.
posted by ltl at 2:07 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by ltl at 2:07 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
Political commenters at the NOS broadcast were dissing the UK and US and praising the Dutch voters for being more reasonable and consensus minded; sounded like whistling past the graveyard to me.
posted by MartinWisse at 2:09 PM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by MartinWisse at 2:09 PM on March 15, 2017 [4 favorites]
I heard they're expecting a voting turnout of about 80%.
The last US elections had a turnout of 55,3%. A remarkable difference.
When I walked to the polling place about 400 meters from my home I thought about the remarkable difference. We have automatic voter registration, polling places are everywhere, there are no long lines, polls are open a relatively long time. It's not perfect, but it really does help.
On the other hand, we do have voter-id laws (passport, id card or driver's license), and you have to bring your voting pass (that you get by mail a few weeks before the election) to the polling place, and you have to vote in your own county, or get a special voting card to vote somewhere else. So, it does require some forethought if you don't study/work near where you officially live, and it's not hard to imagine that some people will lose their voting pass or accidentally mistake it for junk mail and throw it away.
posted by blub at 2:26 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
The last US elections had a turnout of 55,3%. A remarkable difference.
When I walked to the polling place about 400 meters from my home I thought about the remarkable difference. We have automatic voter registration, polling places are everywhere, there are no long lines, polls are open a relatively long time. It's not perfect, but it really does help.
On the other hand, we do have voter-id laws (passport, id card or driver's license), and you have to bring your voting pass (that you get by mail a few weeks before the election) to the polling place, and you have to vote in your own county, or get a special voting card to vote somewhere else. So, it does require some forethought if you don't study/work near where you officially live, and it's not hard to imagine that some people will lose their voting pass or accidentally mistake it for junk mail and throw it away.
posted by blub at 2:26 PM on March 15, 2017 [2 favorites]
I really hope there will not be a coalition VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks, because then GroenLinks will face the same faith as the PvdA had this election. But not really sure what other options there are. Maybe VVD-CDA-D66-ChristenUnie-SGP, and I really can't imagine the SGP actually becoming part of the ruling coalition.
Just listened to the speech of Asscher (PvdA). Actually expected him to resign, surprise he didn't resign (yet) ?
posted by IAr at 2:27 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Just listened to the speech of Asscher (PvdA). Actually expected him to resign, surprise he didn't resign (yet) ?
posted by IAr at 2:27 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
> Political commenters, GRAR
I wonder what you were expecting :)
> polling places are everywhere
One polling station for every 1000-2000 citizens, per election law...
posted by farlukar at 2:36 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
I wonder what you were expecting :)
> polling places are everywhere
One polling station for every 1000-2000 citizens, per election law...
posted by farlukar at 2:36 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
Holy crap, what happened to PvdA?! Yikes.
This will be a fun coalition process.
posted by kevinbelt at 2:53 PM on March 15, 2017
This will be a fun coalition process.
posted by kevinbelt at 2:53 PM on March 15, 2017
I was talking about the election and whom to vote for a few hours before the polling stations closed with a mid-twenty couple, both working and wondering out loud who would best support young working people. We talked about positions of several parties, and off they went to vote.
it's only AFTER the election and seeing the first exit polls with the PvDA losing massively that I realized that the one party who would, say about 20 years ago, be the obvious choice for them to vote for, wasn't even discussed for a second.
They SO lost their relevancy...
posted by DreamerFi at 3:54 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
it's only AFTER the election and seeing the first exit polls with the PvDA losing massively that I realized that the one party who would, say about 20 years ago, be the obvious choice for them to vote for, wasn't even discussed for a second.
They SO lost their relevancy...
posted by DreamerFi at 3:54 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Guess it's not the end of Christian Democracy in Europe quite yet. Hope the CDA and the other center-right winners lurch back towards the center instead of becoming PVV-lite.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:56 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon at 3:56 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
Also, thanks for posting the livestrem, ltl! I love listening to Dutch, even though I can't understand hardly any of it. It sounds like German + English to my ear in the most fantastic way!
In a past life long ago I would spend glorious nights tripping on mushrooms in a comfy hotel room in Amsterdam, listening to Dutch television.
Now my youngest boy watches Minecraft videos in Nanjing through a VPN, and every hour or so a Dutch Youtube ad comes on. My brain does a quick little jerk back into the past, and I turn to him and say "Hey! Spreek je Nederlands?".
He gives me a dirty look, poor guy is oblivious and it all happened before he existed.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:17 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
In a past life long ago I would spend glorious nights tripping on mushrooms in a comfy hotel room in Amsterdam, listening to Dutch television.
Now my youngest boy watches Minecraft videos in Nanjing through a VPN, and every hour or so a Dutch Youtube ad comes on. My brain does a quick little jerk back into the past, and I turn to him and say "Hey! Spreek je Nederlands?".
He gives me a dirty look, poor guy is oblivious and it all happened before he existed.
posted by Meatbomb at 4:17 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
...
Christ, how fucking dark have things got that "the openly fascist party only won a handful of additional seats!" is a genuine cause for celebration?
posted by tobascodagama at 4:35 PM on March 15, 2017 [13 favorites]
Christ, how fucking dark have things got that "the openly fascist party only won a handful of additional seats!" is a genuine cause for celebration?
posted by tobascodagama at 4:35 PM on March 15, 2017 [13 favorites]
Not as dark as in the US.
posted by Pendragon at 4:42 PM on March 15, 2017 [15 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 4:42 PM on March 15, 2017 [15 favorites]
The lefty populists (GroenLinks) quadrupled their seats, from 4 to 16, while the PVV only gained an additional 4, for a total of 19. So the way I see it, leftist populism beat out nationalist extremism. It may not be perfect, but I'll take it.
posted by monospace at 4:50 PM on March 15, 2017 [15 favorites]
posted by monospace at 4:50 PM on March 15, 2017 [15 favorites]
My paternal heritage is Dutch, and I love Holland so much, even though I only get to visit every decade or so. I'm sad that wilder picked up the seats he did, but I'm overjoyed that it wasn't a trumpesque tragedy.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:43 PM on March 15, 2017
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:43 PM on March 15, 2017
Looking at the results and the exit polls, I think that trying to define this election as a simple left/right or populist/anti-populist election is grossly oversimplifying a complicated result. The main story seems to be the shift away from the two main parties, and a slight shift towards centrist parties away from center-left and center-right.
On the right, the main center-right party lost a quarter of its seats, but remains the largest party and the natural leader of any governing coalition. And yes, the PVV picked up some of those seats, but only about half of them. The centrist parties did very well for themselves, possibly at the expense of both left and right. And on the left, the Labor Party suffered a terrible collapse, but the biggest chunk of those votes seems to have gone to GroenLinks. Finally, a whole bunch of little parties did well, both on the left and right.
It's hard to draw any coherent narrative that actually accounts for all the facts here, and trying to focus on how one party did without accounting for the whole political environment seems like an easy but fatal mistake.
posted by firechicago at 7:42 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
On the right, the main center-right party lost a quarter of its seats, but remains the largest party and the natural leader of any governing coalition. And yes, the PVV picked up some of those seats, but only about half of them. The centrist parties did very well for themselves, possibly at the expense of both left and right. And on the left, the Labor Party suffered a terrible collapse, but the biggest chunk of those votes seems to have gone to GroenLinks. Finally, a whole bunch of little parties did well, both on the left and right.
It's hard to draw any coherent narrative that actually accounts for all the facts here, and trying to focus on how one party did without accounting for the whole political environment seems like an easy but fatal mistake.
posted by firechicago at 7:42 PM on March 15, 2017 [3 favorites]
A complicated result to be sure, but given that Wilders has emerged as being in alignment with the incipient racist/fascist parties in other countries, pace his appearance at the RNC in the US...a pretty desirable result?
I'm sad we've been speculating on how far the fascists will get this time in that place.
Just thought I'd share this 2015 photo I took at Dutch Liberation Day here in Toronto in 2015.
So thanks, Netherlands, for being you.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:50 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm sad we've been speculating on how far the fascists will get this time in that place.
Just thought I'd share this 2015 photo I took at Dutch Liberation Day here in Toronto in 2015.
So thanks, Netherlands, for being you.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:50 PM on March 15, 2017 [1 favorite]
So... What happened?
The PvdA as the left most party in a centre-right coalition got punished by the voters. This is normal. Less normal is the enormity of the loss, never seen before, even worse than back in 2002 after the murder of Fortuyn, when it got blamed for allowing this to happen.
VVD also lost some seats but remained the largest party, as I think some of the voters who in the last elections prefered it over the PVV left for their usual parties, as Rutte opposed but also copied Wilders in some aspects.
D66 and GL profited from the collapse of the PvdA (and the former probably also took some VVD votes) due to their anti-Wilders stance while the SP, who could've profited, focused too much on an old fashioned leftwing campaign about healthcare and arguably read the political climate wrong.
The PVV managed to convinced more rightwing/VVD voters to be more afraid of foreigners than their taxes so gained a little and another rightwing party also entered parliament: FvD with two seats.
In general, party loyalty has been completely lost and we now got a huge number of voters voting their conscience, so there's a rise in untraditional leftish parties like the PvdD (animal rights) Denk (immigrants/new citizens) and 50+ (entitled baby boomers).
posted by MartinWisse at 10:18 PM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
The PvdA as the left most party in a centre-right coalition got punished by the voters. This is normal. Less normal is the enormity of the loss, never seen before, even worse than back in 2002 after the murder of Fortuyn, when it got blamed for allowing this to happen.
VVD also lost some seats but remained the largest party, as I think some of the voters who in the last elections prefered it over the PVV left for their usual parties, as Rutte opposed but also copied Wilders in some aspects.
D66 and GL profited from the collapse of the PvdA (and the former probably also took some VVD votes) due to their anti-Wilders stance while the SP, who could've profited, focused too much on an old fashioned leftwing campaign about healthcare and arguably read the political climate wrong.
The PVV managed to convinced more rightwing/VVD voters to be more afraid of foreigners than their taxes so gained a little and another rightwing party also entered parliament: FvD with two seats.
In general, party loyalty has been completely lost and we now got a huge number of voters voting their conscience, so there's a rise in untraditional leftish parties like the PvdD (animal rights) Denk (immigrants/new citizens) and 50+ (entitled baby boomers).
posted by MartinWisse at 10:18 PM on March 15, 2017 [9 favorites]
It's hard to draw any coherent narrative that actually accounts for all the facts here, and trying to focus on how one party did without accounting for the whole political environment seems like an easy but fatal mistake.
The Anglosphere saw no lack of fragmentation and stumbling over each other this past year. This goes to show that the U.S. should adopt a parliamentary system and Brexit should not have been decided by simple majority. When winner-takes-all, we lose all.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:34 PM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
The Anglosphere saw no lack of fragmentation and stumbling over each other this past year. This goes to show that the U.S. should adopt a parliamentary system and Brexit should not have been decided by simple majority. When winner-takes-all, we lose all.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:34 PM on March 15, 2017 [5 favorites]
As someone ineligible to vote, all I have to say is that it was a whole lot easier both going to sleep last night and waking up this morning than it was last November.
posted by sldownard at 12:19 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
posted by sldownard at 12:19 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Dutch news reports that international media talks about Rutte as "hero of Europe" and how happy everybody is that populism took a hit. Rutte is not the reasonable right wing politician that he is painted as. His party's (VVD) slogan was literally "act normal" which is a very Dutch expression, explained here as:
So, just what does “being normal” actually mean in the Netherlands? Well, the easiest way to define acceptable normal Dutch behaviour is to list the biggest offenders of non-normalcy. They are, in no particular order:
1. bragging
2. showing off or acting pretentious
3. discussing money (or how much you have or make)
4. showing a little too much personality
5. showing overt public displays of emotion
6. not following the ever-important unwritten rules and regulations of the Lowlands
7. acting or being perceived as too “weird”, “different”, “disobedient” or “foreign”
It's not hard to see how an explicit slogan of "act normal" by a right wing party that says that immigrants who don't like it here should leave the country is a dogwhistle for racism.
The VVD bought a lot of billboards with things that showed how they were the middle choice. They used a slur word for muslim headscarfs on those billboards. It's offering a choice between "head rags" (the slur for headscarfs), head in the sand, and using your head. And then the VVD was the party for using your head. That's your "hero of Europe".
Also note that right and left in the Netherlands really are very different than in the US. The VVD is the most right wing party we have. Wilders is more to the left on issues of healthcare and social issues. We have a christian party (CU) that scored second (after the animal rights party PvdD) on climate issues. They're quite left wing on social issues too. But they're one of the only parties that is against abortion (the CU is why I'm so surprised about American christians because these christians actually do care about the women who have babies and the babies they have, and the world their children will inherit).
I'm happy that the PVV didn't win even more seats. But it's still not a happy day because 4 more years of Rutte's "leadership" is not something I look forward to at all.
Here's a Loesje poster that's relevant
translation:
THE THREE MAIN QUESTIONS OF THE 21st CENTURY
1. will the economic crisis persist
2. what to do about climate change
3. where do all those VVD voters come from
posted by blub at 1:31 AM on March 16, 2017 [16 favorites]
So, just what does “being normal” actually mean in the Netherlands? Well, the easiest way to define acceptable normal Dutch behaviour is to list the biggest offenders of non-normalcy. They are, in no particular order:
1. bragging
2. showing off or acting pretentious
3. discussing money (or how much you have or make)
4. showing a little too much personality
5. showing overt public displays of emotion
6. not following the ever-important unwritten rules and regulations of the Lowlands
7. acting or being perceived as too “weird”, “different”, “disobedient” or “foreign”
It's not hard to see how an explicit slogan of "act normal" by a right wing party that says that immigrants who don't like it here should leave the country is a dogwhistle for racism.
The VVD bought a lot of billboards with things that showed how they were the middle choice. They used a slur word for muslim headscarfs on those billboards. It's offering a choice between "head rags" (the slur for headscarfs), head in the sand, and using your head. And then the VVD was the party for using your head. That's your "hero of Europe".
Also note that right and left in the Netherlands really are very different than in the US. The VVD is the most right wing party we have. Wilders is more to the left on issues of healthcare and social issues. We have a christian party (CU) that scored second (after the animal rights party PvdD) on climate issues. They're quite left wing on social issues too. But they're one of the only parties that is against abortion (the CU is why I'm so surprised about American christians because these christians actually do care about the women who have babies and the babies they have, and the world their children will inherit).
I'm happy that the PVV didn't win even more seats. But it's still not a happy day because 4 more years of Rutte's "leadership" is not something I look forward to at all.
Here's a Loesje poster that's relevant
translation:
THE THREE MAIN QUESTIONS OF THE 21st CENTURY
1. will the economic crisis persist
2. what to do about climate change
3. where do all those VVD voters come from
posted by blub at 1:31 AM on March 16, 2017 [16 favorites]
> The PvdA as the left most party in a centre-right coalition got punished by the voters. This is normal. Less normal is the enormity of the loss [...]
In 2012 they campaigned against "that horrible right-wing policy" of the VVD/CDA coalition. When they got a government spot as 2nd-biggest party, they negotiated badly and had to carry on with large parts of said horrible policy; still their then-leader, a rhetorically gifted guy, explained all of it away as actually being A Good Thing™.
FFWD to now: PvdA goes campaigning against the horrible government that they were half of.
It's not difficult to see why people don't trust them much anymore.
posted by farlukar at 3:47 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
In 2012 they campaigned against "that horrible right-wing policy" of the VVD/CDA coalition. When they got a government spot as 2nd-biggest party, they negotiated badly and had to carry on with large parts of said horrible policy; still their then-leader, a rhetorically gifted guy, explained all of it away as actually being A Good Thing™.
FFWD to now: PvdA goes campaigning against the horrible government that they were half of.
It's not difficult to see why people don't trust them much anymore.
posted by farlukar at 3:47 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
In Germany, after the elections there's usually a "Wählerwanderungsanalyse", i.e., an analysis of the movement of support between the different parties, based on the exit poll surveys. Is this done in the Netherlands as well? If you see something like this, I'd appreciate if you could post it here.
I'm also curious about data on a possible negative Trump effect. In my experience, people are better at detecting the craziness in politics in other countries than in their own local context. E.g., in Germany, something like 85% of the supporters of (right-wing / racist / ridiculous) AfD didn't like the election of Trump. So, the efforts in the last months of collaborations between Wilders, Front National and AfD as well as trying to profit from the Trump "phenomenon" might actually backfire...
posted by ltl at 4:12 AM on March 16, 2017
I'm also curious about data on a possible negative Trump effect. In my experience, people are better at detecting the craziness in politics in other countries than in their own local context. E.g., in Germany, something like 85% of the supporters of (right-wing / racist / ridiculous) AfD didn't like the election of Trump. So, the efforts in the last months of collaborations between Wilders, Front National and AfD as well as trying to profit from the Trump "phenomenon" might actually backfire...
posted by ltl at 4:12 AM on March 16, 2017
So what kind of coalition can anyone assemble out of this.
If we actually believe the claim of not working with pvv where does rutte get 43 seats from?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:25 AM on March 16, 2017
If we actually believe the claim of not working with pvv where does rutte get 43 seats from?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:25 AM on March 16, 2017
> So what kind of coalition can anyone assemble out of this.
Make your own coalition!
Most likely would be vvd/cda/d66/cu.
posted by farlukar at 4:46 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Make your own coalition!
Most likely would be vvd/cda/d66/cu.
posted by farlukar at 4:46 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
ltl: In Germany, after the elections there's usually a "Wählerwanderungsanalyse", i.e., an analysis of the movement of support between the different parties, based on the exit poll surveys. Is this done in the Netherlands as well?
Sure. Do you read Dutch? If so here's a start.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:19 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Sure. Do you read Dutch? If so here's a start.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:19 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Was there a city/country rift here?
posted by IndigoJones at 5:59 AM on March 16, 2017
posted by IndigoJones at 5:59 AM on March 16, 2017
Too-Ticky: Sure. Do you read Dutch? If so here's a start.
Thanks, I manage with a bit of guess work, and there's always Google Translate. I'm specifically looking for something like the analysis here (German Bundestag 2013, click on "Umfragen", and then the first 6 slides). I.e., how many previous voters for one of the parties voted for another party or decided not to vote at all, etc. Usually, one can guess the likely transfers at a coarse scale from the actual results, but in this kind of detailed analysis there are often really interesting and counter-intuitive results. For example, the movement from the FDP to Linke (slide 5) is quite peculiar if you know a bit about the German political landscape.
posted by ltl at 6:15 AM on March 16, 2017
Thanks, I manage with a bit of guess work, and there's always Google Translate. I'm specifically looking for something like the analysis here (German Bundestag 2013, click on "Umfragen", and then the first 6 slides). I.e., how many previous voters for one of the parties voted for another party or decided not to vote at all, etc. Usually, one can guess the likely transfers at a coarse scale from the actual results, but in this kind of detailed analysis there are often really interesting and counter-intuitive results. For example, the movement from the FDP to Linke (slide 5) is quite peculiar if you know a bit about the German political landscape.
posted by ltl at 6:15 AM on March 16, 2017
Ah, found an article on nos.nl that looks like it has this kind of analysis.
posted by ltl at 6:17 AM on March 16, 2017 [4 favorites]
posted by ltl at 6:17 AM on March 16, 2017 [4 favorites]
> Was there a city/country rift here?
Well, "largest party" isn't much of a benchmark with the current political landscape this fractured, but the historical overview of the largest party per municipality is at least somewhat telling. Compare west & northeast.
posted by farlukar at 8:21 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
Well, "largest party" isn't much of a benchmark with the current political landscape this fractured, but the historical overview of the largest party per municipality is at least somewhat telling. Compare west & northeast.
posted by farlukar at 8:21 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
So, the most stable coalition seems to be a four party coalition with a majority of 1.
You really do need to be good at consensus politics in the Netherlands!
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:21 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
You really do need to be good at consensus politics in the Netherlands!
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 8:21 AM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
A Spicer-spoof: "President Trump is calling mr. Wilders to congratulate him with his fantastic victory"
posted by farlukar at 8:30 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by farlukar at 8:30 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
People say in the U.S. the two-party system is just coalition politics by other means but I think the mechanism of how its done still matters. If we had a parliamentary, non-first-past-the-post system where different interest groups and factions are decoupled from huge big tent parties, then there could be more flexibility. Civil rights-minded libertarians collaborating with anti-surveillance leftists, for example. Non-neoliberal anti-abortion religious conservatives finding common ground with conservationists. The fiscal conservatives with social liberal views on both parties can finally make the big corporate-friendly centrist lovefest that they embody, while everyone else can target them.
Not to derail this topic with an American focus, it's just it looks like parliamentary politics set up systems where factions are forced to work together to find consensus and to govern. Plus the whole being able to call a no-confidence vote to recall the head of government is useful. Can Dutch MeFites in this thread speak to the relative stability or effectiveness of their system?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:03 AM on March 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
Not to derail this topic with an American focus, it's just it looks like parliamentary politics set up systems where factions are forced to work together to find consensus and to govern. Plus the whole being able to call a no-confidence vote to recall the head of government is useful. Can Dutch MeFites in this thread speak to the relative stability or effectiveness of their system?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:03 AM on March 16, 2017 [1 favorite]
So, the most stable coalition seems to be a four party coalition with a majority of 1.
You really do need to be good at consensus politics in the Netherlands!
On many "social" issues it won't be too hard to govern with that coalition because VVD+CDA+D66+CU has parties "flanking" it outside the coalition on both ends. So any particular policy is likely to be able to attract some support from either the PVV on one flank or GL/SP/PvdA on the other.
They will have a much harder time in the VVD's traditional area of focus which is "pro-business" policy. The PVV is in some cases further to the left there leaving the VVD the rightmost party in the coalition with no hope of picking up votes from their right. Although there may well be a gap between populist rhetoric and PVV action.
posted by atrazine at 11:04 AM on March 16, 2017
You really do need to be good at consensus politics in the Netherlands!
On many "social" issues it won't be too hard to govern with that coalition because VVD+CDA+D66+CU has parties "flanking" it outside the coalition on both ends. So any particular policy is likely to be able to attract some support from either the PVV on one flank or GL/SP/PvdA on the other.
They will have a much harder time in the VVD's traditional area of focus which is "pro-business" policy. The PVV is in some cases further to the left there leaving the VVD the rightmost party in the coalition with no hope of picking up votes from their right. Although there may well be a gap between populist rhetoric and PVV action.
posted by atrazine at 11:04 AM on March 16, 2017
Is it not ironic that outside of the Continent, people are celebrating this victory as a blow to far-right nativism, but right and center-right parties were the ones who won (and who often adopted some nativist dogwhistles of their own during the campaign)? Sort of like how Merkel is the considered a symbol of freedom in the U.S. now, but if she was an American politician she'd be the equivalent to Kasich or some other moderate conservative.
Then again, it seems like these parties are conservative but not necessarily so on matters of immigration or EU membership.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:21 AM on March 16, 2017
Then again, it seems like these parties are conservative but not necessarily so on matters of immigration or EU membership.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:21 AM on March 16, 2017
It's more that 'conservative' has a different meaning here. As does 'liberal', for that matter.
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:42 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:42 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
"It's more that 'conservative' has a different meaning here. As does 'liberal', for that matter."
In Europe, they're actually used to describe the concepts they represent. A European conservative is actually conservative. A European liberal is actually liberal. The problem is us. In America, we've decided to call dogs "cats", and then we wonder why people get confused.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:59 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
In Europe, they're actually used to describe the concepts they represent. A European conservative is actually conservative. A European liberal is actually liberal. The problem is us. In America, we've decided to call dogs "cats", and then we wonder why people get confused.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:59 AM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
And your 'left' side of the political landscape is not the red side. I mean, what?!
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:05 PM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:05 PM on March 16, 2017 [3 favorites]
In America, we've decided to call dogs "cats", and then we wonder why people get confused.
It's not so much a naming problem, as a legacy of party evolution in a two-party system over decades in a huge country with very different local contexts, all knotted in the issues of race and civil rights.
One thing that's generally missing from American politics -- and hasn't much of a presence in British politics either -- is ALDE liberalism: socially liberal, internationalist, pro-business and free trade, anti-regulation. You'll see elements of it in Cato or on Reason but not so much in elected office, perhaps because a radical extreme version (Ayn Rand-ish "virtuous selfishness" stuff) is squatting in its place.
(I mean, the Netherlands has a small Calvinist party that you might consider "to the left" if you started by reading their economic policies, but then you get to the bit where they think only male heads of households should vote...)
posted by holgate at 12:23 PM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
It's not so much a naming problem, as a legacy of party evolution in a two-party system over decades in a huge country with very different local contexts, all knotted in the issues of race and civil rights.
One thing that's generally missing from American politics -- and hasn't much of a presence in British politics either -- is ALDE liberalism: socially liberal, internationalist, pro-business and free trade, anti-regulation. You'll see elements of it in Cato or on Reason but not so much in elected office, perhaps because a radical extreme version (Ayn Rand-ish "virtuous selfishness" stuff) is squatting in its place.
(I mean, the Netherlands has a small Calvinist party that you might consider "to the left" if you started by reading their economic policies, but then you get to the bit where they think only male heads of households should vote...)
posted by holgate at 12:23 PM on March 16, 2017 [2 favorites]
Once more
> Was there a city/country rift here?
Today's Volkskrant had a cartogram with municipalities divided in "voted more progressive / more populist". The article is paywalled, but I put the map here.
With the exception of Rotterdam, all urban areas stand out as "more progressive".
posted by farlukar at 3:06 AM on March 17, 2017
> Was there a city/country rift here?
Today's Volkskrant had a cartogram with municipalities divided in "voted more progressive / more populist". The article is paywalled, but I put the map here.
With the exception of Rotterdam, all urban areas stand out as "more progressive".
posted by farlukar at 3:06 AM on March 17, 2017
Votes from abroad are counted. No changes. There was one last seat that would either go to the Animal Party PvdD or 50+ (the entitled baby boomers, as MartinWisse aptly put it). As of yesterday the PvdD had about 900 more votes, but 50+ kept their hopes up thinking that "there are probably more seniors than vegetarians in Benidorm and Marbella" (refering to rich Dutch people who retire in Spain). But, twice as many Dutch people living abroad voted for the PvdD than for 50+. PvdD now has 5 seats, 50+ 4.
The PvdD by the way is not as gimmicky as it may sound. They currently have two seats (both women), and are, despite the name, not just a one issue party. They have a program that is very strong on climate issues, and progressive on social issues. And small parties really can make a difference in Dutch politics. We traditionally saw that with the small christian parties, and that was even when the other parties had actual mandates, as opposed to now when even the biggest party only got 21% of the vote.
Artikel 1 did not get a seat. It's the party by Sylvana Simons, a black women television presenter. She was part of Denk (the first political party primarily aimed at/comprised of at people from immigrant backgrounds, led by men with a Turkish background) but decided to start her own party a few months ago. Artikel 1 refers to the first article of our constitution, about equality. They had a progressive program, speaking out very clearly against racism and sexism and LGBTQ discrimination. This is sorely needed here, and one seat would have made a difference.
posted by blub at 4:00 AM on March 17, 2017 [6 favorites]
The PvdD by the way is not as gimmicky as it may sound. They currently have two seats (both women), and are, despite the name, not just a one issue party. They have a program that is very strong on climate issues, and progressive on social issues. And small parties really can make a difference in Dutch politics. We traditionally saw that with the small christian parties, and that was even when the other parties had actual mandates, as opposed to now when even the biggest party only got 21% of the vote.
Artikel 1 did not get a seat. It's the party by Sylvana Simons, a black women television presenter. She was part of Denk (the first political party primarily aimed at/comprised of at people from immigrant backgrounds, led by men with a Turkish background) but decided to start her own party a few months ago. Artikel 1 refers to the first article of our constitution, about equality. They had a progressive program, speaking out very clearly against racism and sexism and LGBTQ discrimination. This is sorely needed here, and one seat would have made a difference.
posted by blub at 4:00 AM on March 17, 2017 [6 favorites]
I looked at the latest combined poll again and am quite impressed actually. With all the talk about how polls don't work anymore, this seems not that far off. The VVD got a bit bigger than expected and in other parties there are a few votes more or less, but the overall picture is really similar to that of the polls. Which is even more interesting because more than half of people I spoke to did not know yet what they would vote even on election day itself. A downside of this system with so many parties is that it is quite common to have 3 or so parties that you sort of like, but none that you really like. And then there are strategical considerations (not really liking party A, but voting for them anyway in the hope that they'll become the biggest and can lead the coalition, because they're still better than B or C, but with the risk that they will not become the biggest and you feel like you wasted your vote and inadvertently gave the idea that you support policies that you disagree with).
posted by blub at 4:19 AM on March 17, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by blub at 4:19 AM on March 17, 2017 [1 favorite]
Thanks to everyone who provided so much analysis and input. This thread has been most informative.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 1:24 PM on March 17, 2017 [1 favorite]
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 1:24 PM on March 17, 2017 [1 favorite]
Liliane Ploumen, minister of Trade and Development of the PvdA was number 10 on the candidate list of the PvdA. Since the PvdA only got 9 seats she would not get one, but she is one of 4 people (in total) who got enough "preferential votes" so she will get a seat anyway. Ploumen is the minister who started the abortion fund to counter Trump's funding cuts.
posted by blub at 1:59 PM on March 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
posted by blub at 1:59 PM on March 17, 2017 [5 favorites]
Meet the Dutch alt-right ideologue that won two seats in parliament
Baudet has talked about the “homeopathic thinning” of the Dutch population with “other peoples”, he’s claimed that women enjoy being sexually assaulted, has championed pick-up artist Julien Blanc, said that the Netherlands suffers from an “auto-immune disease”, and is buddies with alt-right champion and Twitter-banned Milo Yiannopoulos, formerly of Breitbart. And that’s just the start.
posted by blub at 5:11 PM on March 17, 2017
Baudet has talked about the “homeopathic thinning” of the Dutch population with “other peoples”, he’s claimed that women enjoy being sexually assaulted, has championed pick-up artist Julien Blanc, said that the Netherlands suffers from an “auto-immune disease”, and is buddies with alt-right champion and Twitter-banned Milo Yiannopoulos, formerly of Breitbart. And that’s just the start.
posted by blub at 5:11 PM on March 17, 2017
> Baudet has talked about the “homeopathic thinning” of the Dutch population with “other peoples”, he’s claimed that women enjoy being sexually assaulted
Oh but people are just deliberately misinterpreting his words because they have it in for him, all those big meanies. And he knows best because Baudet is the most important intellectual of the Netherlands, according to Baudet.
posted by farlukar at 9:25 AM on March 18, 2017
Oh but people are just deliberately misinterpreting his words because they have it in for him, all those big meanies. And he knows best because Baudet is the most important intellectual of the Netherlands, according to Baudet.
posted by farlukar at 9:25 AM on March 18, 2017
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